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2021-06-01
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张忆东：6月做多不要停，中美流动性都不会紧
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21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张忆东：6月做多不要停，中美流动性都不会紧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169153092","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。","content":"<p><b>1、6月港股配置思路</b></p><p><b>1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期</b></p><ul><li><p>2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。</p></li><li><p>2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。</p></li><li><p><b>3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。</b></p></li><li><p><b>4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断</b>，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。</p></li><li><p><b>5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多</b>，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。</p></li><li><p><b>5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》</b>中再度强调，<b>美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。</b></p></li></ul><p><b>1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点</b></p><p><b>首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。</b></p><ul><li><p>5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。</p></li><li><p>近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。</p></li></ul><p><b>第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。</b></p><ul><li><p>美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。</p></li><li><p><b>美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。</b>整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。</p></li></ul><p><b>第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。</b></p><ul><li><p>5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。<b>对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。</b></p></li><li><p><b>中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。</b>2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。<b>制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。</b>2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。</p></li></ul><p><b>1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股</b></p><p><b>行情展望：</b>目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。</p><p><b>投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。</b></p><ul><li><p><b>精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。</b>聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的<b>智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。</b></p></li><li><p><b>业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。</b></p></li><li><p><b>立足深度价值，防守反击</b>，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。</p></li></ul>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东：6月做多不要停，中美流动性都不会紧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-01 21:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>1、6月港股配置思路</b></p><p><b>1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期</b></p><ul><li><p>2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。</p></li><li><p>2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。</p></li><li><p><b>3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。</b></p></li><li><p><b>4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断</b>，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。</p></li><li><p><b>5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多</b>，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。</p></li><li><p><b>5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》</b>中再度强调，<b>美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。</b></p></li></ul><p><b>1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点</b></p><p><b>首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。</b></p><ul><li><p>5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。</p></li><li><p>近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。</p></li></ul><p><b>第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。</b></p><ul><li><p>美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。</p></li><li><p><b>美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。</b>整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。</p></li></ul><p><b>第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。</b></p><ul><li><p>5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。<b>对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。</b></p></li><li><p><b>中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。</b>2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。<b>制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。</b>2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。</p></li></ul><p><b>1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股</b></p><p><b>行情展望：</b>目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。</p><p><b>投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。</b></p><ul><li><p><b>精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。</b>聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的<b>智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。</b></p></li><li><p><b>业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。</b></p></li><li><p><b>立足深度价值，防守反击</b>，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。</p></li></ul>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b1a2d7cb6155a301d235b7b7ece66b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169153092","content_text":"1、6月港股配置思路1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》中再度强调，美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股行情展望：目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。立足深度价值，防守反击，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":119553151,"gmtCreate":1622556082273,"gmtModify":1704186261681,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558657583202309","authorIdStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OKOK","listText":"OKOK","text":"OKOK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119553151","repostId":"1169153092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192709320908896,"gmtCreate":1688090092824,"gmtModify":1688090095771,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558657583202309","authorIdStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"内部人士确认比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144424668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款","content":"<p>据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>即将于明年第二季度向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>内部人士确认比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>即将于明年第二季度向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","TSLA":"特斯拉","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144424668","content_text":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
