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红色金刚
2021-06-01
OKOK
Zhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight
红色金刚
2023-06-30
$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
红色金刚
2022-11-01
$腾讯控股(00700)$
红色金刚
2021-08-06
yyds
BYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm
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Today, regarding this matter, another BYD insider revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and the first Model may be Model Y.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 19:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to US-Hong Kong Telecom, a few days ago, some media said that they learned from a number of people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Soon to be issued in the second quarter of next year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade battery\". Today, regarding this matter, another BYD insider revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and the first Model may be Model Y.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144424668","content_text":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119553151,"gmtCreate":1622556082273,"gmtModify":1704186261681,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558657583202309","idStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OKOK","listText":"OKOK","text":"OKOK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119553151","repostId":"1169153092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169153092","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1622552687,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169153092?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169153092","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。","content":"<p><b>Thoughts on allocation of Hong Kong stocks in January and June</b></p><p><b>1.1. Review: The May strategy \"May is not poor, do more on dips\" has been verified-the quarterly adjustment started in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly-level do more window period will be ushered in in mid-May at the latest</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began to recommend long Hong Kong stocks at a low level, and recommended the revaluation of core assets in the cycle under the background of recovery.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water, indicating that the bull market was also at risk of adjustment. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"Golden Pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we analogized the market in 2021 to 2010-policy returns to normalization, while the stock market valuation system is revalued and structural risks are released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"Newborn Calves Are Not Afraid of Tigers\" Judgment</b>In the second quarter, the volatility of the US stock market was amplified, but it was not a systemic risk, while A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom area of the gold pit that started in March.</p><p></li><li><b>At the beginning of May, \"May is not poor, go long on dips\" pointed out: The quarterly adjustment that began in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly level will usher in a long window period in mid-May at the latest, so we should go long on dips</b>Actively grasp the profit-driven structural market.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th \"Centennial Celebration of the Post-Golden Pit Market Gift, Science and Technology Innovation Board Leads the Long Bull of\" Future Core Assets \"\"</b>It was emphasized again in,<b>The easing continued in the United States, the policy environment warmed up before China's centenary celebration, and the \"golden pit\" of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was followed by a long window period, reminding investors to lay out new structural markets.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2. Outlook: Do more in June without stopping, the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight, and short-term market fluctuations are the buying point</b></p><p><b>First of all, it is difficult to recover, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is expected to continue to be dovish. Even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and insist on being dovish. The reason why the market in May and June this year is very different from the previous \"five poor and six absolute\" is that the economy has recovered but the liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>The U.S. inflation data in May is expected to continue to move higher, which may trigger small twists and turns in the stock market in June, but it is not a systemic risk. Under the framework of the new monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, more emphasis is placed on employment and data dependence. At present, the debt of U.S. stocks is high and the unemployment rate in the United States is still high, so it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to tighten. The market twists and turns after higher inflation in April and the attitude of the Federal Reserve have verified our prediction.</p><p></li><li>Recently, the scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) has continued to rise, because the distribution of financial subsidies has led to extremely loose liquidity in the financial market, and a large amount of surplus funds of financial institutions have participated in reverse repurchase. The Federal Reserve's passive recovery of liquidity does not mean that the Federal Reserve takes the initiative to tighten.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the inventory replenishment cycle in the United States has reached the second half, and the commodity market has reached the later stage, and the dawn of growth is coming.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. high-frequency data shows that the recovery of the U.S. economy, especially the services sector, continues to be strong, and the PMI continues to hit new highs. In May, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 61.5 and the PMI of service industry was 70.1, both of which were higher than the previous value and continued to hit a record high, staying above the boom-bust line for 11 consecutive months. The accelerated expansion of the service industry in the United States is mainly due to the mass vaccination spread. The increase in labor participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service industry, and some of the low-educated and younger-aged labor force has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers inventory levels and year-over-year growth have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, and retail inventories have lagged significantly. The high point of demand growth in the United States has appeared, and inventory replenishment has reached the second half.</b>Overall, in the first quarter, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly, resulting in a decline in actual inventories. However, the severe mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventories to rise instead of falling. In the first quarter, the inventory change was mainly driven by the demand level, but looking forward, the high point of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed. In April, the disposable income of residents dropped significantly, and the demand side may drop faster.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, China's advanced manufacturing opportunities are coming, especially the middle and downstream manufacturing leaders with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the relief of cost pressure in the future.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the excessive rise in commodity prices, the National Standing Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have repeatedly stated their positions, attaching great importance to the adverse effects brought by the rise in commodity prices, and demanding that the unreasonable rise in commodity prices be curbed in an all-round way.<b>The regulation of unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help to alleviate the cost pressure of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the cyclical stock market is expected to transition from the traditional cycle in the middle and upstream to the middle and downstream manufacturing industries.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment is super-seasonal from the previous month, and its momentum has improved.</b>In April 2021, investment in manufacturing increased by 23.8% year-on-year, which was still higher than the seasonal average of 2015-2019, and the stimulation of investment in fixed assets was significantly improved, which was stronger than that of real estate and infrastructure.<b>The improvement in manufacturing investment indicates that the supporting role of external demand on the economy is still continuing.</b>China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year in April 2021, up from the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3. Investment suggestions: Actively grasp the time window of doing long, and select cost-effective growth stocks and high-performance value stocks</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>At present, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of the century-old Daqing market, and the risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering that the overall valuation of the global stock market is high and there are many variables in political economy and epidemic situation, the market will fluctuate upward, so it is not advisable to blindly chase high. If there are short-term twists and turns, it is a buying point.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Return to the long logic of growth, select advanced manufacturing, technology and new consumption, and allocate in-depth value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities for selecting advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized scientific and technological innovation \"small giants\".</b>Focus on the Jugra Cycle of Advanced Manufacturing, particularly in the second half of the year, benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\"<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing and new energy are worthy of optimism.</b></p><p></li><li><b>The new economy leader of Hong Kong stocks with high performance growth and suitable cost performance, selected pharmaceuticals, TMT, brand consumption, trendy consumption, property, etc.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on depth value, defensive counterattack</b>Including leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate, insurance, etc. that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Thoughts on allocation of Hong Kong stocks in January and June</b></p><p><b>1.1. Review: The May strategy \"May is not poor, do more on dips\" has been verified-the quarterly adjustment started in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly-level do more window period will be ushered in in mid-May at the latest</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began to recommend long Hong Kong stocks at a low level, and recommended the revaluation of core assets in the cycle under the background of recovery.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water, indicating that the bull market was also at risk of adjustment. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"Golden Pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we analogized the market in 2021 to 2010-policy returns to normalization, while the stock market valuation system is revalued and structural risks are released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"Newborn Calves Are Not Afraid of Tigers\" Judgment</b>In the second quarter, the volatility of the US stock market was amplified, but it was not a systemic risk, while A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom area of the gold pit that started in March.</p><p></li><li><b>At the beginning of May, \"May is not poor, go long on dips\" pointed out: The quarterly adjustment that began in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly level will usher in a long window period in mid-May at the latest, so we should go long on dips</b>Actively grasp the profit-driven structural market.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th \"Centennial Celebration of the Post-Golden Pit Market Gift, Science and Technology Innovation Board Leads the Long Bull of\" Future Core Assets \"\"</b>It was emphasized again in,<b>The easing continued in the United States, the policy environment warmed up before China's centenary celebration, and the \"golden pit\" of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was followed by a long window period, reminding investors to lay out new structural markets.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2. Outlook: Do more in June without stopping, the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight, and short-term market fluctuations are the buying point</b></p><p><b>First of all, it is difficult to recover, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is expected to continue to be dovish. Even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and insist on being dovish. The reason why the market in May and June this year is very different from the previous \"five poor and six absolute\" is that the economy has recovered but the liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>The U.S. inflation data in May is expected to continue to move higher, which may trigger small twists and turns in the stock market in June, but it is not a systemic risk. Under the framework of the new monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, more emphasis is placed on employment and data dependence. At present, the debt of U.S. stocks is high and the unemployment rate in the United States is still high, so it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to tighten. The market twists and turns after higher inflation in April and the attitude of the Federal Reserve have verified our prediction.</p><p></li><li>Recently, the scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) has continued to rise, because the distribution of financial subsidies has led to extremely loose liquidity in the financial market, and a large amount of surplus funds of financial institutions have participated in reverse repurchase. The Federal Reserve's passive recovery of liquidity does not mean that the Federal Reserve takes the initiative to tighten.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the inventory replenishment cycle in the United States has reached the second half, and the commodity market has reached the later stage, and the dawn of growth is coming.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. high-frequency data shows that the recovery of the U.S. economy, especially the services sector, continues to be strong, and the PMI continues to hit new highs. In May, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 61.5 and the PMI of service industry was 70.1, both of which were higher than the previous value and continued to hit a record high, staying above the boom-bust line for 11 consecutive months. The accelerated expansion of the service industry in the United States is mainly due to the mass vaccination spread. The increase in labor participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service industry, and some of the low-educated and younger-aged labor force has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers inventory levels and year-over-year growth have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, and retail inventories have lagged significantly. The high point of demand growth in the United States has appeared, and inventory replenishment has reached the second half.</b>Overall, in the first quarter, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly, resulting in a decline in actual inventories. However, the severe mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventories to rise instead of falling. In the first quarter, the inventory change was mainly driven by the demand level, but looking forward, the high point of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed. In April, the disposable income of residents dropped significantly, and the demand side may drop faster.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, China's advanced manufacturing opportunities are coming, especially the middle and downstream manufacturing leaders with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the relief of cost pressure in the future.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the excessive rise in commodity prices, the National Standing Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have repeatedly stated their positions, attaching great importance to the adverse effects brought by the rise in commodity prices, and demanding that the unreasonable rise in commodity prices be curbed in an all-round way.<b>The regulation of unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help to alleviate the cost pressure of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the cyclical stock market is expected to transition from the traditional cycle in the middle and upstream to the middle and downstream manufacturing industries.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment is super-seasonal from the previous month, and its momentum has improved.</b>In April 2021, investment in manufacturing increased by 23.8% year-on-year, which was still higher than the seasonal average of 2015-2019, and the stimulation of investment in fixed assets was significantly improved, which was stronger than that of real estate and infrastructure.<b>The improvement in manufacturing investment indicates that the supporting role of external demand on the economy is still continuing.</b>China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year in April 2021, up from the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3. Investment suggestions: Actively grasp the time window of doing long, and select cost-effective growth stocks and high-performance value stocks</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>At present, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of the century-old Daqing market, and the risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering that the overall valuation of the global stock market is high and there are many variables in political economy and epidemic situation, the market will fluctuate upward, so it is not advisable to blindly chase high. If there are short-term twists and turns, it is a buying point.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Return to the long logic of growth, select advanced manufacturing, technology and new consumption, and allocate in-depth value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities for selecting advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized scientific and technological innovation \"small giants\".</b>Focus on the Jugra Cycle of Advanced Manufacturing, particularly in the second half of the year, benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\"<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing and new energy are worthy of optimism.</b></p><p></li><li><b>The new economy leader of Hong Kong stocks with high performance growth and suitable cost performance, selected pharmaceuticals, TMT, brand consumption, trendy consumption, property, etc.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on depth value, defensive counterattack</b>Including leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate, insurance, etc. that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b1a2d7cb6155a301d235b7b7ece66b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169153092","content_text":"1、6月港股配置思路1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》中再度强调，美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股行情展望：目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。立足深度价值，防守反击，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":119553151,"gmtCreate":1622556082273,"gmtModify":1704186261681,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558657583202309","idStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OKOK","listText":"OKOK","text":"OKOK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119553151","repostId":"1169153092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169153092","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1622552687,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169153092?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 21:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169153092","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。","content":"<p><b>Thoughts on allocation of Hong Kong stocks in January and June</b></p><p><b>1.1. Review: The May strategy \"May is not poor, do more on dips\" has been verified-the quarterly adjustment started in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly-level do more window period will be ushered in in mid-May at the latest</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began to recommend long Hong Kong stocks at a low level, and recommended the revaluation of core assets in the cycle under the background of recovery.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water, indicating that the bull market was also at risk of adjustment. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"Golden Pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we analogized the market in 2021 to 2010-policy returns to normalization, while the stock market valuation system is revalued and structural risks are released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"Newborn Calves Are Not Afraid of Tigers\" Judgment</b>In the second quarter, the volatility of the US stock market was amplified, but it was not a systemic risk, while A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom area of the gold pit that started in March.</p><p></li><li><b>At the beginning of May, \"May is not poor, go long on dips\" pointed out: The quarterly adjustment that began in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly level will usher in a long window period in mid-May at the latest, so we should go long on dips</b>Actively grasp the profit-driven structural market.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th \"Centennial Celebration of the Post-Golden Pit Market Gift, Science and Technology Innovation Board Leads the Long Bull of\" Future Core Assets \"\"</b>It was emphasized again in,<b>The easing continued in the United States, the policy environment warmed up before China's centenary celebration, and the \"golden pit\" of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was followed by a long window period, reminding investors to lay out new structural markets.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2. Outlook: Do more in June without stopping, the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight, and short-term market fluctuations are the buying point</b></p><p><b>First of all, it is difficult to recover, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is expected to continue to be dovish. Even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and insist on being dovish. The reason why the market in May and June this year is very different from the previous \"five poor and six absolute\" is that the economy has recovered but the liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>The U.S. inflation data in May is expected to continue to move higher, which may trigger small twists and turns in the stock market in June, but it is not a systemic risk. Under the framework of the new monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, more emphasis is placed on employment and data dependence. At present, the debt of U.S. stocks is high and the unemployment rate in the United States is still high, so it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to tighten. The market twists and turns after higher inflation in April and the attitude of the Federal Reserve have verified our prediction.</p><p></li><li>Recently, the scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) has continued to rise, because the distribution of financial subsidies has led to extremely loose liquidity in the financial market, and a large amount of surplus funds of financial institutions have participated in reverse repurchase. The Federal Reserve's passive recovery of liquidity does not mean that the Federal Reserve takes the initiative to tighten.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the inventory replenishment cycle in the United States has reached the second half, and the commodity market has reached the later stage, and the dawn of growth is coming.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. high-frequency data shows that the recovery of the U.S. economy, especially the services sector, continues to be strong, and the PMI continues to hit new highs. In May, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 61.5 and the PMI of service industry was 70.1, both of which were higher than the previous value and continued to hit a record high, staying above the boom-bust line for 11 consecutive months. The accelerated expansion of the service industry in the United States is mainly due to the mass vaccination spread. The increase in labor participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service industry, and some of the low-educated and younger-aged labor force has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers inventory levels and year-over-year growth have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, and retail inventories have lagged significantly. The high point of demand growth in the United States has appeared, and inventory replenishment has reached the second half.</b>Overall, in the first quarter, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly, resulting in a decline in actual inventories. However, the severe mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventories to rise instead of falling. In the first quarter, the inventory change was mainly driven by the demand level, but looking forward, the high point of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed. In April, the disposable income of residents dropped significantly, and the demand side may drop faster.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, China's advanced manufacturing opportunities are coming, especially the middle and downstream manufacturing leaders with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the relief of cost pressure in the future.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the excessive rise in commodity prices, the National Standing Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have repeatedly stated their positions, attaching great importance to the adverse effects brought by the rise in commodity prices, and demanding that the unreasonable rise in commodity prices be curbed in an all-round way.<b>The regulation of unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help to alleviate the cost pressure of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the cyclical stock market is expected to transition from the traditional cycle in the middle and upstream to the middle and downstream manufacturing industries.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment is super-seasonal from the previous month, and its momentum has improved.</b>In April 2021, investment in manufacturing increased by 23.8% year-on-year, which was still higher than the seasonal average of 2015-2019, and the stimulation of investment in fixed assets was significantly improved, which was stronger than that of real estate and infrastructure.<b>The improvement in manufacturing investment indicates that the supporting role of external demand on the economy is still continuing.</b>China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year in April 2021, up from the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3. Investment suggestions: Actively grasp the time window of doing long, and select cost-effective growth stocks and high-performance value stocks</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>At present, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of the century-old Daqing market, and the risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering that the overall valuation of the global stock market is high and there are many variables in political economy and epidemic situation, the market will fluctuate upward, so it is not advisable to blindly chase high. If there are short-term twists and turns, it is a buying point.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Return to the long logic of growth, select advanced manufacturing, technology and new consumption, and allocate in-depth value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities for selecting advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized scientific and technological innovation \"small giants\".</b>Focus on the Jugra Cycle of Advanced Manufacturing, particularly in the second half of the year, benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\"<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing and new energy are worthy of optimism.</b></p><p></li><li><b>The new economy leader of Hong Kong stocks with high performance growth and suitable cost performance, selected pharmaceuticals, TMT, brand consumption, trendy consumption, property, etc.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on depth value, defensive counterattack</b>Including leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate, insurance, etc. that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong: Don't stop doing more in June, and the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-01 21:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Thoughts on allocation of Hong Kong stocks in January and June</b></p><p><b>1.1. Review: The May strategy \"May is not poor, do more on dips\" has been verified-the quarterly adjustment started in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly-level do more window period will be ushered in in mid-May at the latest</b></p><p><ul><li>In early September 2020, we began to recommend long Hong Kong stocks at a low level, and recommended the revaluation of core assets in the cycle under the background of recovery.</p><p></li><li>At the end of January 2021, when the sentiment of Hong Kong stocks was high, we began to pour cold water, indicating that the bull market was also at risk of adjustment. In late February, we proposed that the construction of the \"Golden Pit\" would not be completed until the second quarter.</p><p></li><li><b>At the end of March, we analogized the market in 2021 to 2010-policy returns to normalization, while the stock market valuation system is revalued and structural risks are released.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Early April Spring Strategy 20210407 \"Newborn Calves Are Not Afraid of Tigers\" Judgment</b>In the second quarter, the volatility of the US stock market was amplified, but it was not a systemic risk, while A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to complete the bottom area of the gold pit that started in March.</p><p></li><li><b>At the beginning of May, \"May is not poor, go long on dips\" pointed out: The quarterly adjustment that began in February has come to an end at the end of April, and the quarterly level will usher in a long window period in mid-May at the latest, so we should go long on dips</b>Actively grasp the profit-driven structural market.</p><p></li><li><b>May 14th \"Centennial Celebration of the Post-Golden Pit Market Gift, Science and Technology Innovation Board Leads the Long Bull of\" Future Core Assets \"\"</b>It was emphasized again in,<b>The easing continued in the United States, the policy environment warmed up before China's centenary celebration, and the \"golden pit\" of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was followed by a long window period, reminding investors to lay out new structural markets.</b></p><p></li></ul><b>1.2. Outlook: Do more in June without stopping, the liquidity of China and the United States will not be tight, and short-term market fluctuations are the buying point</b></p><p><b>First of all, it is difficult to recover, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June is expected to continue to be dovish. Even if inflation continues to rise in May, it will tolerate inflation and insist on being dovish. The reason why the market in May and June this year is very different from the previous \"five poor and six absolute\" is that the economy has recovered but the liquidity has not tightened.</b></p><p><ul><li>The U.S. inflation data in May is expected to continue to move higher, which may trigger small twists and turns in the stock market in June, but it is not a systemic risk. Under the framework of the new monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, more emphasis is placed on employment and data dependence. At present, the debt of U.S. stocks is high and the unemployment rate in the United States is still high, so it is impossible for the Federal Reserve to tighten. The market twists and turns after higher inflation in April and the attitude of the Federal Reserve have verified our prediction.</p><p></li><li>Recently, the scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) has continued to rise, because the distribution of financial subsidies has led to extremely loose liquidity in the financial market, and a large amount of surplus funds of financial institutions have participated in reverse repurchase. The Federal Reserve's passive recovery of liquidity does not mean that the Federal Reserve takes the initiative to tighten.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the inventory replenishment cycle in the United States has reached the second half, and the commodity market has reached the later stage, and the dawn of growth is coming.</b></p><p><ul><li>U.S. high-frequency data shows that the recovery of the U.S. economy, especially the services sector, continues to be strong, and the PMI continues to hit new highs. In May, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States was 61.5 and the PMI of service industry was 70.1, both of which were higher than the previous value and continued to hit a record high, staying above the boom-bust line for 11 consecutive months. The accelerated expansion of the service industry in the United States is mainly due to the mass vaccination spread. The increase in labor participation rate in the United States has benefited from increased opportunities in the service industry, and some of the low-educated and younger-aged labor force has returned to the labor market.</p><p></li><li><b>U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers inventory levels and year-over-year growth have surpassed pre-pandemic highs, and retail inventories have lagged significantly. The high point of demand growth in the United States has appeared, and inventory replenishment has reached the second half.</b>Overall, in the first quarter, supported by fiscal stimulus, commodity consumption rose rapidly, resulting in a decline in actual inventories. However, the severe mismatch between supply and demand has pushed up inflation, causing nominal inventories to rise instead of falling. In the first quarter, the inventory change was mainly driven by the demand level, but looking forward, the high point of fiscal stimulus growth in the United States has passed. In April, the disposable income of residents dropped significantly, and the demand side may drop faster.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, China's advanced manufacturing opportunities are coming, especially the middle and downstream manufacturing leaders with scientific and technological innovation capabilities, which will benefit from the relief of cost pressure in the future.</b></p><p><ul><li>Since May, in response to the excessive rise in commodity prices, the National Standing Committee, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have repeatedly stated their positions, attaching great importance to the adverse effects brought by the rise in commodity prices, and demanding that the unreasonable rise in commodity prices be curbed in an all-round way.<b>The regulation of unreasonable prices of upstream commodities will help to alleviate the cost pressure of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the cyclical stock market is expected to transition from the traditional cycle in the middle and upstream to the middle and downstream manufacturing industries.</b></p><p></li><li><b>China's manufacturing investment is super-seasonal from the previous month, and its momentum has improved.</b>In April 2021, investment in manufacturing increased by 23.8% year-on-year, which was still higher than the seasonal average of 2015-2019, and the stimulation of investment in fixed assets was significantly improved, which was stronger than that of real estate and infrastructure.<b>The improvement in manufacturing investment indicates that the supporting role of external demand on the economy is still continuing.</b>China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 32.3% year-on-year in April 2021, up from the previous value of 30.6%. In April 2021, the profits of industrial enterprises maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.0%.</p><p></li></ul><b>1.3. Investment suggestions: Actively grasp the time window of doing long, and select cost-effective growth stocks and high-performance value stocks</b></p><p><b>Market Outlook:</b>At present, the A-share market has formed a strong consensus expectation of the century-old Daqing market, and the risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market has also been positively boosted. However, considering that the overall valuation of the global stock market is high and there are many variables in political economy and epidemic situation, the market will fluctuate upward, so it is not advisable to blindly chase high. If there are short-term twists and turns, it is a buying point.</p><p><b>Investment strategy: Return to the long logic of growth, select advanced manufacturing, technology and new consumption, and allocate in-depth value.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>There are greater opportunities for selecting advanced manufacturing industries, especially small and medium-sized scientific and technological innovation \"small giants\".</b>Focus on the Jugra Cycle of Advanced Manufacturing, particularly in the second half of the year, benefiting from China's \"14th Five-Year Plan\"<b>Intelligent manufacturing, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, high-end military manufacturing and new energy are worthy of optimism.</b></p><p></li><li><b>The new economy leader of Hong Kong stocks with high performance growth and suitable cost performance, selected pharmaceuticals, TMT, brand consumption, trendy consumption, property, etc.</b></p><p></li><li><b>Based on depth value, defensive counterattack</b>Including leading state-owned enterprises, securities firms, banks, real estate, insurance, etc. that have the ability and willingness to release profits.</p><p></li></ul></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b1a2d7cb6155a301d235b7b7ece66b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169153092","content_text":"1、6月港股配置思路1.1、回顾：5月策略《五月不穷，逢低做多》得到验证——2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期2020年9月上旬我们开始在低位推荐做多港股，在复苏背景下推荐周期核心资产的价值重估。2021年1月底，我们在港股情绪亢奋时，开始泼冷水、提示牛市也有调整风险。2月下旬，我们提出「黄金坑」构筑完成要到二季度。3月底，我们将2021年的行情类比2010年——政策回归正常化，而股市估值体系重估、结构性风险释放。4月初春季策略20210407《初生牛犊不怕虎》判断，二季度美股行情波动放大，但并非系统性风险，而A股和港股有望完成3月份开始的黄金坑底部区域。5月初《五月不穷，逢低做多》指出：2月份开始的季度性调整在4月底已到尾声，最迟5月中旬将迎来季度级别的做多窗口期，要逢低做多，积极把握盈利驱动型的结构性行情。5月14日《黄金坑后行情献礼百年庆，科创板引领「未来核心资产」长牛》中再度强调，美国宽松继续，中国百年大庆前政策环境转暖，A股港股「黄金坑」之后是做多窗口期，提醒投资者布局新的结构性行情。1.2、展望：6月做多不停歇，中美流动性都不会紧，短期市场波动是买点首先，覆水难收，美联储6月份议息会议有望继续鸽派，即便5月份通胀继续走高，也会容忍通胀而坚持鸽派。今年这个5、6月行情之所以跟以往的「五穷六绝」大不同，最大的区别在于：经济复苏但是流动性却没有收紧。5月份的美国通胀数据有望继续走高，可能会引发6月股市的小波折，但不是系统性风险。在美联储新货币政策框架下，更强调就业以及数据依赖，当前美股债台高筑、美国失业率依然高企，美联储不可能收紧。4月份通胀走高之后的市场波折以及美联储的态度，已验证了我们的预判。近期美联储隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）规模持续走高，原因在于财政补贴的发放导致金融市场流动性异常宽松，金融机构资金富余大量参与逆回购，美联储被动回收流动性，并不意味着联储主动收紧。第二，美国补库存周期已至后半段，商品行情到后期，成长曙光来临。美国高频数据显示美国经济，尤其是服务业，复苏继续强劲，PMI持续创新高。5月份，美国Markit制造业PMI为61.5，服务业PMI为70.1，均高于前值并持续创出历史新高，连续11个月处于荣枯线之上。美国服务业加速扩张，主要得益于疫苗的大规模接种普及。美国劳动参与率上升，受益于服务业机会增多，低学历、低龄劳动力已部分流回劳动力市场。美国制造商、批发商库存水平和同比增速已超过疫情前高点，零售库存大幅落后。美国需求增速高点已现，补库存已到后半段。整体而言，一季度在财政刺激的支持下，商品消费快速上升，导致了实际库存的下降。但严重的供需错配推升了通货膨胀，导致名义库存量不降反升。一季度库存变化主要由需求层面带动，但往后来看，美国的财政刺激增速高点已过，4月份居民可支配收入出现明显回落，需求端或较快回落。第三，中国的先进制造业机会来临，特别是具有科创能力的中下游制造业龙头，后续将受益于成本压力的缓解。5月以来，针对大宗商品价格的过快上涨，国常会、发改委等部门先后多次表态，高度重视大宗商品价格攀升带来的不利影响，要求全方位遏制大宗商品价格不合理上涨。对上游大宗商品不合理价格的调控，将有助于减缓下游制造业企业成本压力，周期股行情有望从中上游传统周期向中游和偏下游制造业进行过渡。中国制造业投资环比超季节性，动力改善。2021年4月，制造业投资当月同比增长23.8%，环比仍高于2015-2019年季节性规律均值，对固定资产投资的拉动明显提升，强于地产和基建。制造业投资改善表明外需对经济的支撑作用仍在延续。2021年4月中国出口（以美元计）同比增长32.3%，高于前值的30.6%。2021年4月工业企业利润维持高速增长，同比增速为57.0%。1.3、投资建议：积极把握住做多时间窗口，精选高性价比的成长股和绩优价值股行情展望：目前A股市场已经形成百年大庆行情的强烈一致预期，港股市场的风险偏好也受正面提振，但考虑到，全球股市整体估值偏高、政治经济和疫情的变数众多，因此，行情将震荡上行，不宜盲目追高，若有短期波折反而是买点。投资策略：回归成长的长逻辑，精选先进制造、科技、新消费，配置深度价值。精选先进制造业，特别是中小市值科创型「小巨人」的机会更大。聚焦先进制造业的朱格拉周期，特别是下半年受益于中国「十四五规划」的智能制造、新能源车、半导体、军工高端制造、新能源等值得看好。业绩高增长且性价比合适的港股新经济龙头，精选医药、TMT、品牌消费、新潮消费、物业等。立足深度价值，防守反击，包括有能力和有意愿释放利润的国企龙头、券商、银行、地产、保险等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192709320908896,"gmtCreate":1688090092824,"gmtModify":1688090095771,"author":{"id":"3558657583202309","authorId":"3558657583202309","name":"红色金刚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea5179e1529674f308547e56f26874","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3558657583202309","idStr":"3558657583202309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144424668","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款","content":"<p>According to US-Hong Kong Telecom, a few days ago, some media said that they learned from a number of people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Soon to be issued in the second quarter of next year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade battery\". Today, regarding this matter, another BYD insider revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and the first Model may be Model Y.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBYD to supply 'blade batteries' to Tesla, insiders confirm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-06 19:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to US-Hong Kong Telecom, a few days ago, some media said that they learned from a number of people familiar with the matter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Soon to be issued in the second quarter of next year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Supply \"blade battery\". Today, regarding this matter, another BYD insider revealed to the media that it is true that BYD will supply \"blade batteries\" to Tesla, and the first Model may be Model Y.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144424668","content_text":"据美港电讯报道，日前，有媒体称，从多位知情人士处获悉，比亚迪即将于明年第二季度向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”。今日，对于此事，又有比亚迪内部人士向媒体透露，比亚迪将向特斯拉供应“刀片电池”一事属实，并且首款车型或为Model Y。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01211":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
