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一大片天空
2021-05-11
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一大片天空
2021-08-27
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一大片天空
2021-08-25
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一大片天空
09-04
$蔚来(NIO.SI)$
一大片天空
01-22
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
一大片天空
01-16
$蔚来(NIO.SI)$
一大片天空
2022-12-29
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@经济观察报:山東、山西省委主要負責同志職務調整
一大片天空
2022-09-27
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@belling:凜冬已至,靜待蟄伏|寫在9月FOMC之後
一大片天空
2021-08-21
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@旭阳特别帅:22萬美金覆盤
一大片天空
2021-06-17
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一大片天空
2021-06-15
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一大片天空
2021-06-12
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一大片天空
2021-06-10
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一大片天空
2021-06-09
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一大片天空
2021-06-07
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一大片天空
2021-06-06
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一大片天空
2021-06-04
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一大片天空
2021-06-03
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一大片天空
2021-06-02
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一大片天空
2021-05-30
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嗯,今年年初搞了16萬刀以後,筆者又幹到了22萬刀。無疑的,我肯定得感謝這個美國資本市場,也得感謝美聯儲無限印鈔,但更要感謝的是把握住機會的自己,多年來的認知積累能夠在這個市場發揮出價值。我不敢肯定美國的超級大牛市能否持續下去,我只知道現在的行情應該是最好的時光,一個人的命運沉浮大部分和時代有關,假如這個人能夠參悟其中的規律,加上超強的執行力,那麼他應該能夠變得富足。 不驕不躁,在適應了年初的命運轉折後,筆者重新出發,抱着空杯心態,賬戶裏剩下2萬美金,繼續前行。當然賺這個錢不光是賺錢,更是一種心理上的磨練。虧損過半是家常便飯,當然伴隨而來的就是懊喪、後悔、自我貶低還有焦慮,這些心理難關都需要自己去克服和調節,最重要的是你還得晚上睡得着,不去關心資金的波動,總的來說就是心要大。 有這麼一句話說得很到位:錢乃身外之物。--你越是看重,就越會得不到。你只有放開了一切心理負擔去做這件事情,這個世界纔會給予你想要的東西。這有點哲學的味道了。人生不就是不斷去體悟嗎?但一個停止腳步的人會有人生經驗的增長嗎?白走一遭的人生,筆者是萬不想過的,去做,去看,去參悟,去成長,不因自己的年齡而對自己加以限制,去追逐自由--筆者打算出國留學了。 2021年7月23日,2萬美金翻了11倍,賣掉後,筆者出了16萬美金,至此個人資產超過了200多萬RMB。你不用羨慕我,爲了今天我付出了很多努力,17年開始做這個也有4年了,期間閱讀過的書數不清;爲了保持充沛的精力,跑步、鍛鍊,雷打不斷的;最重要的是克服心理壓力,虧損過半怎麼辦?沒信心了怎麼辦?耐心不夠感到焦慮怎麼辦?難的是這個。 當然也失去以及錯過很多,比如之前存在P2P的錢其實夠我去國外留學的,但我一直覺得錢還不夠多,就存了進去。後面的事情就不說了,可","listText":"….虎妞來找我要我發.本來想低調一點的…..那就發吧.大家主要看我買賣的操作,對你有用的話我會很高興. 嗯,今年年初搞了16萬刀以後,筆者又幹到了22萬刀。無疑的,我肯定得感謝這個美國資本市場,也得感謝美聯儲無限印鈔,但更要感謝的是把握住機會的自己,多年來的認知積累能夠在這個市場發揮出價值。我不敢肯定美國的超級大牛市能否持續下去,我只知道現在的行情應該是最好的時光,一個人的命運沉浮大部分和時代有關,假如這個人能夠參悟其中的規律,加上超強的執行力,那麼他應該能夠變得富足。 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Union來承擔2)美聯儲可能在民主黨中期選舉爲了政治正確保持hawkish。3)短期來看,美股有反彈的可能;中期來看,美股仍然有下跌的空間。4)當前各個大類資產對Fed-Fomc極其敏感,通過路徑的演繹,FED轉向的觀察窗口可能是EURUSD,時間點可能是明年Q1或者Q2。本週看完了聯儲的FOMC講話,市場也變動的比較大,想和大家聊一下接下來怎麼看。正如前文所預測的,聯儲下調了一系列的經濟預期,具體來看數據是:其實從圖中也可以看出,聯儲一方面是預期管理,另一方面也披露了他們對於經濟下滑的預期:雖然軟着陸的信心下降,但是控制通脹的決心堅定。反過來說,通脹的盡頭就是衰退。關於terminal rate,J Powell表示維持jackson hole的立場,那也就是說起碼要看到通脹回落2%的明確證據,筆者的想法是,需要失業率進一步擡升才行,比方說到4.5%可能纔是一個trigger。現階段聯儲保持鷹派的預期當然有很多理由:1)美元的國際儲備地位2)Fed的信用、決心3)美式政治正確4)陰謀論來說美元甚至是一種武器美元的國際儲備地位從美元的地位來說,他的競爭者主要是歐元、英鎊、日元等。現階段看,歐元由於俄烏的衝突,導致了今年基本保持萎靡;而日元則是因爲BOJ的YCC政策(人爲壓低jp10y),意圖保持強出口、日元計價的資產價格不變、避免日本國內的通縮,所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。EURUSD vs JPYUSD插一句,歐洲接下來大概率比美國衰退的更早更深,對於任何一個經濟體來說,其自身的長期動力來源於科技發展(即生產率的提高),而不是低利率瘋狂印鈔(各個部門加槓桿)。自俄烏戰爭打響,通脹中樞也許永久性地擡高了。可以說,歐洲的麻煩不是結束的開始,而是開始的結束。Fed的決心、信用從Fed的決","listText":"Abstract摘要1)美聯儲大概率加息過度,但是痛苦Europe Union來承擔2)美聯儲可能在民主黨中期選舉爲了政治正確保持hawkish。3)短期來看,美股有反彈的可能;中期來看,美股仍然有下跌的空間。4)當前各個大類資產對Fed-Fomc極其敏感,通過路徑的演繹,FED轉向的觀察窗口可能是EURUSD,時間點可能是明年Q1或者Q2。本週看完了聯儲的FOMC講話,市場也變動的比較大,想和大家聊一下接下來怎麼看。正如前文所預測的,聯儲下調了一系列的經濟預期,具體來看數據是:其實從圖中也可以看出,聯儲一方面是預期管理,另一方面也披露了他們對於經濟下滑的預期:雖然軟着陸的信心下降,但是控制通脹的決心堅定。反過來說,通脹的盡頭就是衰退。關於terminal rate,J Powell表示維持jackson hole的立場,那也就是說起碼要看到通脹回落2%的明確證據,筆者的想法是,需要失業率進一步擡升才行,比方說到4.5%可能纔是一個trigger。現階段聯儲保持鷹派的預期當然有很多理由:1)美元的國際儲備地位2)Fed的信用、決心3)美式政治正確4)陰謀論來說美元甚至是一種武器美元的國際儲備地位從美元的地位來說,他的競爭者主要是歐元、英鎊、日元等。現階段看,歐元由於俄烏的衝突,導致了今年基本保持萎靡;而日元則是因爲BOJ的YCC政策(人爲壓低jp10y),意圖保持強出口、日元計價的資產價格不變、避免日本國內的通縮,所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。EURUSD vs JPYUSD插一句,歐洲接下來大概率比美國衰退的更早更深,對於任何一個經濟體來說,其自身的長期動力來源於科技發展(即生產率的提高),而不是低利率瘋狂印鈔(各個部門加槓桿)。自俄烏戰爭打響,通脹中樞也許永久性地擡高了。可以說,歐洲的麻煩不是結束的開始,而是開始的結束。Fed的決心、信用從Fed的決","text":"Abstract摘要1)美聯儲大概率加息過度,但是痛苦Europe Union來承擔2)美聯儲可能在民主黨中期選舉爲了政治正確保持hawkish。3)短期來看,美股有反彈的可能;中期來看,美股仍然有下跌的空間。4)當前各個大類資產對Fed-Fomc極其敏感,通過路徑的演繹,FED轉向的觀察窗口可能是EURUSD,時間點可能是明年Q1或者Q2。本週看完了聯儲的FOMC講話,市場也變動的比較大,想和大家聊一下接下來怎麼看。正如前文所預測的,聯儲下調了一系列的經濟預期,具體來看數據是:其實從圖中也可以看出,聯儲一方面是預期管理,另一方面也披露了他們對於經濟下滑的預期:雖然軟着陸的信心下降,但是控制通脹的決心堅定。反過來說,通脹的盡頭就是衰退。關於terminal rate,J Powell表示維持jackson hole的立場,那也就是說起碼要看到通脹回落2%的明確證據,筆者的想法是,需要失業率進一步擡升才行,比方說到4.5%可能纔是一個trigger。現階段聯儲保持鷹派的預期當然有很多理由:1)美元的國際儲備地位2)Fed的信用、決心3)美式政治正確4)陰謀論來說美元甚至是一種武器美元的國際儲備地位從美元的地位來說,他的競爭者主要是歐元、英鎊、日元等。現階段看,歐元由於俄烏的衝突,導致了今年基本保持萎靡;而日元則是因爲BOJ的YCC政策(人爲壓低jp10y),意圖保持強出口、日元計價的資產價格不變、避免日本國內的通縮,所以Japan Yen在今年也大幅下跌。EURUSD vs 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