Kenbey2002 personal page - To The Moon

Kenbey2002

Kenbey2002

hello~~

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03-03

All the best on your trading.

02-28

Yes it can beat the earning

2022-04-12

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please fly to the moon[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call]

2021-04-17

Be greedy when people are fearful.

3 EV Stocks That Could Be Set For A Downturn

2021-02-13

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$is flying to the ?

2020-12-15

EV gonna fly lolz.

Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.

2020-12-04

$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$is it going to go up?

2020-11-30

$Alibaba(09988)$low enough to buy now?

2020-11-30

Nice

那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的

2020-11-27

Nice

外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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the best on your trading.","listText":"All the best on your trading.","text":"All the best on your trading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/280328183414944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4090647175999790","authorId":"4090647175999790","name":"Cclim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/158afed7eb041df3339f97ac9082e613","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090647175999790","authorIdStr":"4090647175999790"},"content":"This article is good, please forward it to everyone","text":"This article is good, please forward it to everyone","html":"This article is good, please forward it to everyone"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":278973545340928,"gmtCreate":1709130351654,"gmtModify":1709130356154,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes it can beat the earning","listText":"Yes it can beat the earning","text":"Yes it can beat the earning","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/278973545340928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017962524,"gmtCreate":1649737525071,"gmtModify":1676534561075,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please fly to the moon[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please fly to the moon[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please fly to the moon[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017962524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370440698,"gmtCreate":1618622280614,"gmtModify":1704713494990,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be greedy when people are fearful.&nbsp;","listText":"Be greedy when people are fearful.&nbsp;","text":"Be greedy when people are fearful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370440698","repostId":"1169761437","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169761437","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618577693,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169761437?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-16 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 EV Stocks That Could Be Set For A Downturn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169761437","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The sellers are about to hitTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nThe stock has staged an impressive rally over ","content":"<p>The sellers are about to hit<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p>\n<p>The stock has staged an impressive rally over the past week as investors think it will benefit from the $2 trillion infrastructure bill, as well as a potential Green New Deal.</p>\n<p>But the stock may have become overextended.</p>\n<p>The red line on the following chart marks two standard deviations above its recent 20-day average price. Shares&nbsp;are trading above this threshold.</p>\n<p>These overbought conditions will draw sellers into the market as&nbsp;they will expect a reversion to the average. This could put a top on the shares and it could even push them lower.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28ae93e549790d354809d8d1d849546\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"813\"><b>NIO Inc.</b>(NYSE:NIO) has formed a classic descending triangle&nbsp;pattern, which has bearish implications.</p>\n<p>Chart patterns are illustrations of the supply and demand dynamics occurring within a market. This pattern shows&nbsp;buyers of NIO have been complacent. At the same time, sellers are becoming more aggressive.</p>\n<p>Since early March buyers have held firm at the $35 level. At the same time, sellers have been knocking the shares lower.</p>\n<p>In mid-March, the lowest price sellers would accept for their shares was around $45. By early April it had dropped to $40. Now there are sellers willing to accept $35.</p>\n<p>The combination of aggressive sellers and complacent buyers could drive the price lower.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64b841348a68424562dfd4d0996f91d\" tg-width=\"1533\" tg-height=\"817\">Shares of<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(NYSE:FSR) have broken support and&nbsp;could continue to trend lower.</p>\n<p>Support forms when there are a large number of buyers that are looking to pay the same price for shares of stock. In this case, it was the $14.75 level. It was clear support through December and January.</p>\n<p>Now that level been has broken, which means the buyers who were willing to pay $14.75 have either finished or canceled their orders.</p>\n<p>With this demand of the market, the stage is set for a further decline in the share price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1504ff3581a62fe5fe5390c585f43b4\" tg-width=\"1538\" tg-height=\"823\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 EV Stocks That Could Be Set For A Downturn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 EV Stocks That Could Be Set For A Downturn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 20:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The sellers are about to hit<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p>\n<p>The stock has staged an impressive rally over the past week as investors think it will benefit from the $2 trillion infrastructure bill, as well as a potential Green New Deal.</p>\n<p>But the stock may have become overextended.</p>\n<p>The red line on the following chart marks two standard deviations above its recent 20-day average price. Shares&nbsp;are trading above this threshold.</p>\n<p>These overbought conditions will draw sellers into the market as&nbsp;they will expect a reversion to the average. This could put a top on the shares and it could even push them lower.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28ae93e549790d354809d8d1d849546\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"813\"><b>NIO Inc.</b>(NYSE:NIO) has formed a classic descending triangle&nbsp;pattern, which has bearish implications.</p>\n<p>Chart patterns are illustrations of the supply and demand dynamics occurring within a market. This pattern shows&nbsp;buyers of NIO have been complacent. At the same time, sellers are becoming more aggressive.</p>\n<p>Since early March buyers have held firm at the $35 level. At the same time, sellers have been knocking the shares lower.</p>\n<p>In mid-March, the lowest price sellers would accept for their shares was around $45. By early April it had dropped to $40. Now there are sellers willing to accept $35.</p>\n<p>The combination of aggressive sellers and complacent buyers could drive the price lower.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a64b841348a68424562dfd4d0996f91d\" tg-width=\"1533\" tg-height=\"817\">Shares of<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(NYSE:FSR) have broken support and&nbsp;could continue to trend lower.</p>\n<p>Support forms when there are a large number of buyers that are looking to pay the same price for shares of stock. In this case, it was the $14.75 level. It was clear support through December and January.</p>\n<p>Now that level been has broken, which means the buyers who were willing to pay $14.75 have either finished or canceled their orders.</p>\n<p>With this demand of the market, the stage is set for a further decline in the share price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1504ff3581a62fe5fe5390c585f43b4\" tg-width=\"1538\" tg-height=\"823\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","FSR":"菲斯克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169761437","content_text":"The sellers are about to hitTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nThe stock has staged an impressive rally over the past week as investors think it will benefit from the $2 trillion infrastructure bill, as well as a potential Green New Deal.\nBut the stock may have become overextended.\nThe red line on the following chart marks two standard deviations above its recent 20-day average price. Shares are trading above this threshold.\nThese overbought conditions will draw sellers into the market as they will expect a reversion to the average. This could put a top on the shares and it could even push them lower.\nNIO Inc.(NYSE:NIO) has formed a classic descending triangle pattern, which has bearish implications.\nChart patterns are illustrations of the supply and demand dynamics occurring within a market. This pattern shows buyers of NIO have been complacent. At the same time, sellers are becoming more aggressive.\nSince early March buyers have held firm at the $35 level. At the same time, sellers have been knocking the shares lower.\nIn mid-March, the lowest price sellers would accept for their shares was around $45. By early April it had dropped to $40. Now there are sellers willing to accept $35.\nThe combination of aggressive sellers and complacent buyers could drive the price lower.\nShares ofFisker Inc.(NYSE:FSR) have broken support and could continue to trend lower.\nSupport forms when there are a large number of buyers that are looking to pay the same price for shares of stock. In this case, it was the $14.75 level. It was clear support through December and January.\nNow that level been has broken, which means the buyers who were willing to pay $14.75 have either finished or canceled their orders.\nWith this demand of the market, the stage is set for a further decline in the share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386608643,"gmtCreate":1613162702782,"gmtModify":1704879107045,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>is flying to the ?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>is flying to the ?&nbsp;","text":"$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$is flying to the ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2058a44637861c13a03df62d4b8dcf3d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386608643","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":394873534,"gmtCreate":1608009962428,"gmtModify":1704972742266,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV gonna fly lolz.","listText":"EV gonna fly lolz.","text":"EV gonna fly lolz.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/394873534","repostId":"1127683527","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127683527","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1607999633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127683527?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-15 10:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127683527","media":"barrons","summary":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO","content":"<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs</p>\n<p>Among the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.</p>\n<p>He values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.</p>\n<p>Breaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.</p>\n<p>Fang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.</p>\n<p>The discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.</p>\n<p>For NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.</p>\n<p>UBS</p>\n<p>Hsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.</p>\n<p>He also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.</p>\n<p>For BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.</p>\n<p>For NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.</p>\n<p>It’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.</p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank</p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.</p>\n<p>He recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”</p>\n<p>He compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.</p>\n<p>There are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-15 10:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1><strong>barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3f944cb946cded615557bb29da37d8","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127683527","content_text":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.\nGoldman Sachs\nAmong the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.\nHe values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.\nBreaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.\nFang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.\nThe discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.\nFor NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.\nUBS\nHsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.\nHe also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”\nJ.P. Morgan\nJ.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.\nFor BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.\nFor NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.\nIt’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.\nDeutsche Bank\nDeutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.\nHe recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”\nHe compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.\nThere are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396812901,"gmtCreate":1607087279403,"gmtModify":1704968723582,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBE\">$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$</a>is it going to go up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBE\">$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$</a>is it going to go up?","text":"$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$is it going to go up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396812901","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391276545,"gmtCreate":1606724810587,"gmtModify":1704966461039,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>low enough to buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>low enough to buy now?","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$low enough to buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391276545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":699,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391276675,"gmtCreate":1606724653598,"gmtModify":1704966461202,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391276675","repostId":"1195175253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195175253","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1606361772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195175253?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-26 11:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195175253","media":"腾讯自选股财讯","summary":"一个人的品行不取决于他如何享受胜利，而在于他如何忍受失败。","content":"<p>爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。</p><p>区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。</p><p>那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。</p><p>从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也逃不过爆仓</p><p>爆仓或者严重亏损不仅对普通散户来说是家常便饭，就算是交易大神，这种情况也是时有发生。就算是过去战绩再怎么辉煌的交易员，也可能一夜爆仓。跟大多数普通人一样，交易大佬们的爆仓往往也是从重仓和自我膨胀开始的。</p><p>在这个市场中，一旦你开始膨胀，<b>在不理智的情况下不断加仓，不管你之前有多厉害，都可能会掉进深渊。</b></p><p>一战成名的魔鬼交易员布雷恩·亨特(Brain Hunter)就是一个非常典型的例子。</p><p>他曾经在德意志银行当过三年的天然气期货交易员，<b>在这期间他有过辉煌的交易战绩，也曾一周爆仓亏损5120万美元。</b></p><p>但这些跟他后面的经历相比根本不值一提，让布雷恩·亨特一战成名的那场战役是从他跳槽到对冲基金Amaranth开始的。</p><p>2005年的夏天，布雷恩·亨特发现了一个「捡钱」的交易机会，他发现当时美国的天然气价格非常低，每百万英热(MMBTU)仅为6到8美元。布雷恩·亨特认定，<b>只要等到夏天一过，进入冬季后美国每家每户都要依靠天然气来取暖，到时候需求必然飙升，价格也将随着水涨船高，于是他大量买入价格低廉的天然气看涨期权，等待价格回升。</b></p><p>然而，还没等到冬季来临，幸运之神就降临到布雷恩·亨特头上。<b>2005年8月25日，一场史上最大规模的飓风——卡特里娜飓风，席卷了美国。美国大量的天然气生产运营基地被毁，导致供应严重受损，</b>而且由于路面交通也在飓风中被摧毁，导致相关人员无法及时维修。</p><p>天然气价格立马就暴涨，<b>从6美元飙升至10月的14美元，到12月中旬涨至15.38美元的顶峰，随后又快速回落至原先的6美元。</b></p><p>布雷恩·亨特一战成名，他持有的天然气看涨期权给他带来了巨额回报，更幸运的是，连他用来对冲风险的天然气空头仓位，也在之后的天然气价格回落中获利不少。</p><p>布雷恩·亨特这一战到底赚了多少呢？</p><p><b>他所在的对冲基金Amaranth在2005年的前半年业绩还是负1%，结果8月份的业绩直接实现了5%的正收益，9月份达到了7.5%，当年该基金的收益达到了15%，管理规模增长至72亿美元。布雷恩·亨特个人拿到了1.13亿美元的巨额奖金。</b></p><p>也正是这一战过后，亨特开始飘了，他认为自己能赚到一个亿，就一定能够赚到更多，自那以后，一个亿在他眼里已经完完全全就是一个小目标。</p><p>得到老板的信任后，他还成立了一个事业部，将工作地点从康乃狄克州搬到自己老家——加拿大的卡尔加里。</p><p>在这里他犯了一个致命的错误，为他后面的失败埋下伏笔。他的工作室找了好几个交易员和行政人员，<b>唯独没有招风控人员，他当时的风控还是由远在康乃狄克州总部的大卫(David Chasman)负责。</b>但是，他们没办法像之前那样对每笔交易的风控进行实时评估，更多的是通过电脑来完成，而且大卫太过相信亨特了。</p><p>进入2006年后，亨特再次布局天然气，那个冬天是个暖冬，天然气需求并不旺盛，导致天然气价格起不来。亨特认为，下个冬天一定不会再出现暖冬的情况，到时候天然气需求会非常旺盛。</p><p>于是，<b>他开始短期做空天然气合约，同时做多天然气远期合约。</b>截至2006年2月，NYMEX中11月天然气空头合约中有70%是他的仓位，2007年1月的远期天然气多头看涨合约中有60%也是他的仓位。可见他当时的仓位是有多重。</p><p>当时他每天的浮动盈亏都在几千万美元的级别，运气好的时候一周他能赚几亿美元。他坚持认为自己的判断是对的，并且想趁机赚笔大的。2006年前4个月，他又为公司赚了20亿美元。</p><p>但这一次，幸运之神没有再眷顾他。<b>2006年8月底至9月初，NYMEX天然气期货的远期合约价格大幅下降，亨特的短期做空，长期做多的策略失败了。</b>Amaranth对冲基金遭遇巨额亏损。2006年9月中旬，Amaranth创始人马奥尼斯(Nicholas Maounis)在给投资人的邮件中表示，亏损规模高达30亿美元。不过，他还是选择继续相信亨特。</p><p>事实证明，他的信错人了。到了这时候，亨特依然不认输，他还认为自己的判断是对的，只要扛过了这个阶段，就能再次创造辉煌。<b>这时候的他已经失去了理性判断的能力，他不仅没有减仓，反而还是按照原来的策略继续加仓。到了2006年9月底，这家基金的亏损扩大至66亿美元，被迫宣布破产。</b></p><p>从名声响彻华尔街到陨落，亨特只用了一年多的时间。他的传奇故事就像一颗划过华尔街上空的流星，璀璨，但也短暂。</p><p>爆仓的根源在哪里？</p><p>其实，不管是职业交易员还是普通的散户，爆仓的根源其实如出一辙。</p><p>从亨特的例子中，我们可以看到，他确实犯了很多低级的错误，比如没有做好风控、在严重亏损的时候还继续加仓，还有过度自信和自我膨胀等。</p><p>他爆仓的根源主要在于两个方面：一是没有做好风控；二是仓位过重。这也是大多数爆仓的交易者都会犯的错误。</p><p><b>他先是忽略了风控的重要性，结果又开始重仓交易，并且在已经出现重大亏损的时候继续死扛甚至加仓，最终导致爆仓。</b>这种操作方式可以用一个字来形容——狠。</p><p>在期货市场爆仓过8次的管洪志一开始的操作手法也透露着狠劲。他基本上使开盘后看到价格涨了就立马追涨，跌了就追跌，被套了就扛着，跌了就加仓。<b>仓位基本上都是在70%-80%，满仓干的情况也时有发生。结果几年下来他在市场上把自己弄得「遍体鳞伤」，光是爆仓就经历了8回。</b></p><p>此外，在交易中，当你过分地去追求某个非常明确的目标时，也很容易犯前面提到的两个错误。比如这位叫做马克·温斯坦的华尔街交易员，他在上世纪70年代的时候立志要赚足100万美元，然后在法国买一座心仪的城堡，当时他看上的那座城堡的价格是35万美元。</p><p><b>为了实现这个目标，他重仓了大豆期货，并且忽略了风险。</b>当时他每天的亏损相当于其账户净资产每天亏损近10%。当时的压力几乎让温斯坦处于崩溃的边缘，他还曾倒在女朋友怀里嚎啕大哭，甚至想过完全退出交易这行。</p><p>包括一些交易大神在内，很多交易员爆仓的原因都是重仓+忽略风控。可能是交易者本身对风控只是甚少，觉得风控就是简单设置一下止盈止损；也可能是交易员本身对风控的理解比较深入了，但系统还不完善，简单来说就是自己的风控系统还存在漏洞。</p><p>而重仓的原因本质上只有一个，那就是过分追求高收益，想要在一笔交易中获得自己预期的或者更高的收益。</p><p>交易大佬爆仓后怎么熬过来？</p><p>上面讲到的几个事例中，亨特有没有再次崛起不得而知，但管洪志却在8次爆仓后又崛起了，<b>将1500万做大至1亿元。马克·温斯坦也并没有彻底离开市场，而是熬过来了，成为连续盈利80个月的高胜算交易员。</b></p><p>虽然他们爆仓的原因都相差不大，但是他们从爆仓中领悟到的东西却各有不同。</p><ul><li><b>以稳代狠</b></li></ul><p>在经历了8次爆仓后，管洪志的操作方式逐渐趋稳，那股狠劲再也见不到了，满仓的情况几乎见不到了。<b>他大多数情况下都是先用15%的资金来试盘，等到确定自己做的方向对了，底仓开始出现盈利后才逐渐加仓。</b></p><p>8次的爆仓经历让他明白，<b>交易最重要的是遵守纪律、严格执行计划、以及资金和仓位的管理。仓位管理尤其重要，如果一开始进场就将用了30%甚至更高的仓位，然后又在亏损的情况下继续加仓，很容易就造成严重亏损甚至爆仓，还会影响到交易者的心理。</b></p><p>为了控制风险，除了仓位管理外，他还采取了其他措施。比如，根据盘面的强弱，在不同品种之间进行对冲交易。例如在农产品表现强，金属表现弱的时候，他会根据一定比例做多油脂，同时做空金属。</p><ul><li><b>学会敬畏市场</b></li></ul><p>根据马克·温斯坦的回忆，他在经历爆仓后，<b>之所以能够做到连续80个月盈利的成绩，很重要一点就是他学会了敬畏市场。</b></p><p>之前他就是太过自信，认为自己一定能从市场中赚到一座城堡，不经分析就盲目入场，结果就栽了跟头。<b>他发现成功的交易员通常都是一些最畏惧市场的人。对市场交易的恐惧心理迫使他必须选择最佳的进场时机，要是他哪天觉得市场情况不对，或者对行情完全摸不着头脑，他宁愿当天不交易。</b></p><p>每个人从爆仓的过程中领悟到的东西都不同，有些人可能什么也没从中学到，这周爆仓了后也不去反思，结果没过多久又爆仓了。</p><p>爆仓的原因很多人其实都懂，但很多人还是会重复犯错。根源在于心态不正确，很多人就算爆过仓，知道怎样会导致爆仓后下次依然可能再犯，就比如第一个故事里的亨特。因为对金钱的欲望会让人好了伤疤忘了疼。</p><p>要知道，<b>交易的本质是一个概率游戏，只有深刻理解到这一点，才能正确看待交易盈亏，当你能够正确看待交易中的盈亏时，就不会再去一味地追求胜率，到了那个时候，自然就会跟爆仓说再见了。</b></p>","source":"lsy1595930700684","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-26 11:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win><strong>腾讯自选股财讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca171a0387ab62cb47edf08f7bb0a12","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195175253","content_text":"爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也逃不过爆仓爆仓或者严重亏损不仅对普通散户来说是家常便饭，就算是交易大神，这种情况也是时有发生。就算是过去战绩再怎么辉煌的交易员，也可能一夜爆仓。跟大多数普通人一样，交易大佬们的爆仓往往也是从重仓和自我膨胀开始的。在这个市场中，一旦你开始膨胀，在不理智的情况下不断加仓，不管你之前有多厉害，都可能会掉进深渊。一战成名的魔鬼交易员布雷恩·亨特(Brain Hunter)就是一个非常典型的例子。他曾经在德意志银行当过三年的天然气期货交易员，在这期间他有过辉煌的交易战绩，也曾一周爆仓亏损5120万美元。但这些跟他后面的经历相比根本不值一提，让布雷恩·亨特一战成名的那场战役是从他跳槽到对冲基金Amaranth开始的。2005年的夏天，布雷恩·亨特发现了一个「捡钱」的交易机会，他发现当时美国的天然气价格非常低，每百万英热(MMBTU)仅为6到8美元。布雷恩·亨特认定，只要等到夏天一过，进入冬季后美国每家每户都要依靠天然气来取暖，到时候需求必然飙升，价格也将随着水涨船高，于是他大量买入价格低廉的天然气看涨期权，等待价格回升。然而，还没等到冬季来临，幸运之神就降临到布雷恩·亨特头上。2005年8月25日，一场史上最大规模的飓风——卡特里娜飓风，席卷了美国。美国大量的天然气生产运营基地被毁，导致供应严重受损，而且由于路面交通也在飓风中被摧毁，导致相关人员无法及时维修。天然气价格立马就暴涨，从6美元飙升至10月的14美元，到12月中旬涨至15.38美元的顶峰，随后又快速回落至原先的6美元。布雷恩·亨特一战成名，他持有的天然气看涨期权给他带来了巨额回报，更幸运的是，连他用来对冲风险的天然气空头仓位，也在之后的天然气价格回落中获利不少。布雷恩·亨特这一战到底赚了多少呢？他所在的对冲基金Amaranth在2005年的前半年业绩还是负1%，结果8月份的业绩直接实现了5%的正收益，9月份达到了7.5%，当年该基金的收益达到了15%，管理规模增长至72亿美元。布雷恩·亨特个人拿到了1.13亿美元的巨额奖金。也正是这一战过后，亨特开始飘了，他认为自己能赚到一个亿，就一定能够赚到更多，自那以后，一个亿在他眼里已经完完全全就是一个小目标。得到老板的信任后，他还成立了一个事业部，将工作地点从康乃狄克州搬到自己老家——加拿大的卡尔加里。在这里他犯了一个致命的错误，为他后面的失败埋下伏笔。他的工作室找了好几个交易员和行政人员，唯独没有招风控人员，他当时的风控还是由远在康乃狄克州总部的大卫(David Chasman)负责。但是，他们没办法像之前那样对每笔交易的风控进行实时评估，更多的是通过电脑来完成，而且大卫太过相信亨特了。进入2006年后，亨特再次布局天然气，那个冬天是个暖冬，天然气需求并不旺盛，导致天然气价格起不来。亨特认为，下个冬天一定不会再出现暖冬的情况，到时候天然气需求会非常旺盛。于是，他开始短期做空天然气合约，同时做多天然气远期合约。截至2006年2月，NYMEX中11月天然气空头合约中有70%是他的仓位，2007年1月的远期天然气多头看涨合约中有60%也是他的仓位。可见他当时的仓位是有多重。当时他每天的浮动盈亏都在几千万美元的级别，运气好的时候一周他能赚几亿美元。他坚持认为自己的判断是对的，并且想趁机赚笔大的。2006年前4个月，他又为公司赚了20亿美元。但这一次，幸运之神没有再眷顾他。2006年8月底至9月初，NYMEX天然气期货的远期合约价格大幅下降，亨特的短期做空，长期做多的策略失败了。Amaranth对冲基金遭遇巨额亏损。2006年9月中旬，Amaranth创始人马奥尼斯(Nicholas Maounis)在给投资人的邮件中表示，亏损规模高达30亿美元。不过，他还是选择继续相信亨特。事实证明，他的信错人了。到了这时候，亨特依然不认输，他还认为自己的判断是对的，只要扛过了这个阶段，就能再次创造辉煌。这时候的他已经失去了理性判断的能力，他不仅没有减仓，反而还是按照原来的策略继续加仓。到了2006年9月底，这家基金的亏损扩大至66亿美元，被迫宣布破产。从名声响彻华尔街到陨落，亨特只用了一年多的时间。他的传奇故事就像一颗划过华尔街上空的流星，璀璨，但也短暂。爆仓的根源在哪里？其实，不管是职业交易员还是普通的散户，爆仓的根源其实如出一辙。从亨特的例子中，我们可以看到，他确实犯了很多低级的错误，比如没有做好风控、在严重亏损的时候还继续加仓，还有过度自信和自我膨胀等。他爆仓的根源主要在于两个方面：一是没有做好风控；二是仓位过重。这也是大多数爆仓的交易者都会犯的错误。他先是忽略了风控的重要性，结果又开始重仓交易，并且在已经出现重大亏损的时候继续死扛甚至加仓，最终导致爆仓。这种操作方式可以用一个字来形容——狠。在期货市场爆仓过8次的管洪志一开始的操作手法也透露着狠劲。他基本上使开盘后看到价格涨了就立马追涨，跌了就追跌，被套了就扛着，跌了就加仓。仓位基本上都是在70%-80%，满仓干的情况也时有发生。结果几年下来他在市场上把自己弄得「遍体鳞伤」，光是爆仓就经历了8回。此外，在交易中，当你过分地去追求某个非常明确的目标时，也很容易犯前面提到的两个错误。比如这位叫做马克·温斯坦的华尔街交易员，他在上世纪70年代的时候立志要赚足100万美元，然后在法国买一座心仪的城堡，当时他看上的那座城堡的价格是35万美元。为了实现这个目标，他重仓了大豆期货，并且忽略了风险。当时他每天的亏损相当于其账户净资产每天亏损近10%。当时的压力几乎让温斯坦处于崩溃的边缘，他还曾倒在女朋友怀里嚎啕大哭，甚至想过完全退出交易这行。包括一些交易大神在内，很多交易员爆仓的原因都是重仓+忽略风控。可能是交易者本身对风控只是甚少，觉得风控就是简单设置一下止盈止损；也可能是交易员本身对风控的理解比较深入了，但系统还不完善，简单来说就是自己的风控系统还存在漏洞。而重仓的原因本质上只有一个，那就是过分追求高收益，想要在一笔交易中获得自己预期的或者更高的收益。交易大佬爆仓后怎么熬过来？上面讲到的几个事例中，亨特有没有再次崛起不得而知，但管洪志却在8次爆仓后又崛起了，将1500万做大至1亿元。马克·温斯坦也并没有彻底离开市场，而是熬过来了，成为连续盈利80个月的高胜算交易员。虽然他们爆仓的原因都相差不大，但是他们从爆仓中领悟到的东西却各有不同。以稳代狠在经历了8次爆仓后，管洪志的操作方式逐渐趋稳，那股狠劲再也见不到了，满仓的情况几乎见不到了。他大多数情况下都是先用15%的资金来试盘，等到确定自己做的方向对了，底仓开始出现盈利后才逐渐加仓。8次的爆仓经历让他明白，交易最重要的是遵守纪律、严格执行计划、以及资金和仓位的管理。仓位管理尤其重要，如果一开始进场就将用了30%甚至更高的仓位，然后又在亏损的情况下继续加仓，很容易就造成严重亏损甚至爆仓，还会影响到交易者的心理。为了控制风险，除了仓位管理外，他还采取了其他措施。比如，根据盘面的强弱，在不同品种之间进行对冲交易。例如在农产品表现强，金属表现弱的时候，他会根据一定比例做多油脂，同时做空金属。学会敬畏市场根据马克·温斯坦的回忆，他在经历爆仓后，之所以能够做到连续80个月盈利的成绩，很重要一点就是他学会了敬畏市场。之前他就是太过自信，认为自己一定能从市场中赚到一座城堡，不经分析就盲目入场，结果就栽了跟头。他发现成功的交易员通常都是一些最畏惧市场的人。对市场交易的恐惧心理迫使他必须选择最佳的进场时机，要是他哪天觉得市场情况不对，或者对行情完全摸不着头脑，他宁愿当天不交易。每个人从爆仓的过程中领悟到的东西都不同，有些人可能什么也没从中学到，这周爆仓了后也不去反思，结果没过多久又爆仓了。爆仓的原因很多人其实都懂，但很多人还是会重复犯错。根源在于心态不正确，很多人就算爆过仓，知道怎样会导致爆仓后下次依然可能再犯，就比如第一个故事里的亨特。因为对金钱的欲望会让人好了伤疤忘了疼。要知道，交易的本质是一个概率游戏，只有深刻理解到这一点，才能正确看待交易盈亏，当你能够正确看待交易中的盈亏时，就不会再去一味地追求胜率，到了那个时候，自然就会跟爆仓说再见了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391052723,"gmtCreate":1606448563862,"gmtModify":1704965656768,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560981274539122","authorIdStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391052723","repostId":"2086178620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2086178620","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1606426429,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2086178620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-27 05:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086178620","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险德意志银行上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><b>德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”</p><p>德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”</p><p>德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。</p><p>不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。</p><p>第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/114/w550h364/20201127/1707-kentcvx7081690.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\"></p><p><b>阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></p><p>由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。</p><p>阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。</p><p>“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”</p><p>周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。</p><p>数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/48/w550h298/20201127/a07c-kentcvx7180402.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><b>比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></p><p>比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。</p><p>比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。</p><p>在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。</p><p>数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。</p><p>在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201127/846a-kentcvx7228558.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"351\"></p><p><b>美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></p><p>欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。</p><p>双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。</p><p>“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。</p><p>协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/99/w550h349/20201127/de53-kentcvx7222790.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><b>据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></p><p>在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。</p><p>据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。</p><p>他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。</p><p>一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。</p><p>上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/52/w550h302/20201127/8eb2-kentcvx7181843.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><b>OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></p><p>石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。</p><p>OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。</p><p>以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。</p><p>Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。</p><p>与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。</p><p>机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！&gt;&gt;</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-27 05:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><b>德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”</p><p>德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”</p><p>德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。</p><p>不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。</p><p>第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/114/w550h364/20201127/1707-kentcvx7081690.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\"></p><p><b>阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></p><p>由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。</p><p>阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。</p><p>“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”</p><p>周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。</p><p>数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/48/w550h298/20201127/a07c-kentcvx7180402.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><b>比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></p><p>比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。</p><p>比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。</p><p>在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。</p><p>数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。</p><p>在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201127/846a-kentcvx7228558.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"351\"></p><p><b>美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></p><p>欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。</p><p>双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。</p><p>“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。</p><p>协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/99/w550h349/20201127/de53-kentcvx7222790.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><b>据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></p><p>在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。</p><p>据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。</p><p>他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。</p><p>一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。</p><p>上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/52/w550h302/20201127/8eb2-kentcvx7181843.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><b>OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></p><p>石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。</p><p>OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。</p><p>以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。</p><p>Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。</p><p>与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。</p><p>机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！&gt;&gt;</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg","relate_stocks":{"DB":"德意志银行","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","EBON":"亿邦国际","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2086178620","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险2、阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。德意志银行集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！>>","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":280328183414944,"gmtCreate":1709450071907,"gmtModify":1709450075156,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All the best on your trading.","listText":"All the best on your trading.","text":"All the best on your trading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/280328183414944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4090647175999790","authorId":"4090647175999790","name":"Cclim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/158afed7eb041df3339f97ac9082e613","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090647175999790","idStr":"4090647175999790"},"content":"This article is good, please forward it to everyone","text":"This article is good, please forward it to everyone","html":"This article is good, please forward it to 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fearful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370440698","repostId":"1169761437","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017962524,"gmtCreate":1649737525071,"gmtModify":1676534561075,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please fly to the moon[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>please fly to the moon[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;[Call]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$please fly to the moon[Call] [Call] [Call] [Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017962524","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":396812901,"gmtCreate":1607087279403,"gmtModify":1704968723582,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBE\">$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$</a>is it going to go up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBE\">$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$</a>is it going to go up?","text":"$Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation(SBE)$is it going to go up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/396812901","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391276545,"gmtCreate":1606724810587,"gmtModify":1704966461039,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>low enough to buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a>low enough to buy now?","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$low enough to buy 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?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2058a44637861c13a03df62d4b8dcf3d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/386608643","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":394873534,"gmtCreate":1608009962428,"gmtModify":1704972742266,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV gonna fly lolz.","listText":"EV gonna fly lolz.","text":"EV gonna fly lolz.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/394873534","repostId":"1127683527","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1127683527","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1607999633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127683527?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-12-15 10:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127683527","media":"barrons","summary":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO","content":"<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs</p>\n<p>Among the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.</p>\n<p>He values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.</p>\n<p>Breaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.</p>\n<p>Fang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.</p>\n<p>The discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.</p>\n<p>For NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.</p>\n<p>UBS</p>\n<p>Hsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.</p>\n<p>He also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.</p>\n<p>For BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.</p>\n<p>For NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.</p>\n<p>It’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.</p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank</p>\n<p>Deutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.</p>\n<p>He recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”</p>\n<p>He compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.</p>\n<p>There are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Is Obsessed With EV Stocks NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto. Here’s How 5 Brokerages Value Them.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-15 10:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1><strong>barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd3f944cb946cded615557bb29da37d8","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-loves-ev-stocks-nio-xpeng-li-auto-51607728466?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127683527","content_text":"Analysts have becomeincreasingly infatuatedwith Chinese electric-vehicle stocks lately—including NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng—even as their share prices rise higher and higher. Here’s how they are valuing thehighflying stocks.\nGoldman Sachs\nAmong the U.S.-listed, pure-play electric-vehicle makers that Goldman Sachs analystFei Fangcovers areLi Auto(ticker: LI) andNIO(NIO). He rates Li Buy and NIO Hold. His price target for Li stock is $60 a share and for NIO stock is $59 a share.\nHe values both companies using a three-stage discounted cash flow model. That generally forecasts sales, profit margins, and cash available to equity holders far out into the future. All the cash flows are discounted back at a rate of return acceptable to an investor.\nBreaking it into three stages—growth, consolidation, and maturity—reflects the fact there is decelerating growth over time.\nFang sees Li sales going from 30,000 units in 2020 to 1.7 million units in 2030 and 5 million units in 2050. For NIO, Fang has sales rising from 43,000 units in 2020 to 800,000 in 2030 and 3.2 million in 2050.\nThe discounted cash flow helps value stocks, but the value he sees is in the growth. Fang expects Li to grow 166-fold over 50 years. That’s an average annual growth rate of about 11%. Fang expects NIO to grow 74-fold, expanding unit sales at an average rate of 9% a year for 50 years.\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley analystTim Hsiaocovers Li Auto and NIO too, rating both the equivalent of Buy. He has $26 and $33 price targets for Li and NIO, respectively. Both stocks trade above those marks, but he hasn’t updated price targets in about a month.\nFor NIO, he uses a discounted cash flow like Fang, but Hsiao doesn’t spell out his assumptions as explicitly as Fang. His model results in a price about 44% lower than the Goldman analyst.\nUBS\nHsiao and Fang don’t coverXPeng(XPEV), but UBS analystPaul Gongdoes. He rates XPeng shares Hold and has a $59 price target. That target is based on an 11 times 2022 enterprise value to sales, using Tesla’s current 12 times multiple as a benchmark.\nHe also has a discounted cash flow model, which values XPeng at $40. That’s significantly different from his $59 price target, but the target “likely reflects near-term market optimism on China’s electric vehicle theme.” Gong says he expects “sustained market optimism.”\nJ.P. Morgan\nJ.P. Morgan analystNick Laihas opinions on NIO and XPeng as well asBYD(1211.Hong Kong), which is a diversified vehicle maker and a large producer of EVs. He rates NIO and XPeng share Buy and has $50 price targets for both stocks. He rates BYD shares Hold and has a 200 Hong Kong dollar price target for that stock.\nFor BYD, Lai applies a price-to-earnings multiple of 80 times for the battery business and 50 times earnings for the EV manufacturing business. High multiples are justified, for Lai, because he believes EV penetration will rise from 5% of new car sales in 2019 to 20% by 2025.\nFor NIO, as well as XPeng, J.P. Morgan’s Lai uses three times estimated 2025 sales for his valuation, while noting that multiple is a discount toTesla(TSLA). Tesla is valued at roughly 5 times estimated 2025 sales.\nIt’s a relative approach—there isn’t a discussion of whether 3 or 5 times sales is the right amount. But growth investors will often use comparisons with other growth companies when valuing stocks. It can be easier than using a discounted cash flow. Either way, accurately forecasting 50 years into the future is very hard to do.\nDeutsche Bank\nDeutsche Bank analystEdison Yulikes NIO stock, rating shares Buy. Like Lai, his price target is $50, and he also uses a price-to-sales multiple to value NIO stock.\nHe recently raised his price target to $50 from $34 a share. The new target is based on a multiple of 10 times estimated 2022 sales, up from 8 times estimated 2022 sales. Yu notes the multiple is at the high end of the “pure electric peer group,” but says it is justified by “NIO’s premium market position, aspirational brand, and tech road map.”\nHe compares the NIO sales multiple with XPeng and Tesla to come up with what is fair.\nThere are a lot of ways tovalue shares,as this exercise in valuing Chinese EV stocks shows. No matter which valuation method is chosen, stock performance often times comes down to business execution. In the case of EV stocks, analysts and investors are expecting a lot of growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391276675,"gmtCreate":1606724653598,"gmtModify":1704966461202,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391276675","repostId":"1195175253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195175253","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1606361772,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195175253?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-26 11:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195175253","media":"腾讯自选股财讯","summary":"一个人的品行不取决于他如何享受胜利，而在于他如何忍受失败。","content":"<p>爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。</p><p>区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。</p><p>那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。</p><p>从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也逃不过爆仓</p><p>爆仓或者严重亏损不仅对普通散户来说是家常便饭，就算是交易大神，这种情况也是时有发生。就算是过去战绩再怎么辉煌的交易员，也可能一夜爆仓。跟大多数普通人一样，交易大佬们的爆仓往往也是从重仓和自我膨胀开始的。</p><p>在这个市场中，一旦你开始膨胀，<b>在不理智的情况下不断加仓，不管你之前有多厉害，都可能会掉进深渊。</b></p><p>一战成名的魔鬼交易员布雷恩·亨特(Brain Hunter)就是一个非常典型的例子。</p><p>他曾经在德意志银行当过三年的天然气期货交易员，<b>在这期间他有过辉煌的交易战绩，也曾一周爆仓亏损5120万美元。</b></p><p>但这些跟他后面的经历相比根本不值一提，让布雷恩·亨特一战成名的那场战役是从他跳槽到对冲基金Amaranth开始的。</p><p>2005年的夏天，布雷恩·亨特发现了一个「捡钱」的交易机会，他发现当时美国的天然气价格非常低，每百万英热(MMBTU)仅为6到8美元。布雷恩·亨特认定，<b>只要等到夏天一过，进入冬季后美国每家每户都要依靠天然气来取暖，到时候需求必然飙升，价格也将随着水涨船高，于是他大量买入价格低廉的天然气看涨期权，等待价格回升。</b></p><p>然而，还没等到冬季来临，幸运之神就降临到布雷恩·亨特头上。<b>2005年8月25日，一场史上最大规模的飓风——卡特里娜飓风，席卷了美国。美国大量的天然气生产运营基地被毁，导致供应严重受损，</b>而且由于路面交通也在飓风中被摧毁，导致相关人员无法及时维修。</p><p>天然气价格立马就暴涨，<b>从6美元飙升至10月的14美元，到12月中旬涨至15.38美元的顶峰，随后又快速回落至原先的6美元。</b></p><p>布雷恩·亨特一战成名，他持有的天然气看涨期权给他带来了巨额回报，更幸运的是，连他用来对冲风险的天然气空头仓位，也在之后的天然气价格回落中获利不少。</p><p>布雷恩·亨特这一战到底赚了多少呢？</p><p><b>他所在的对冲基金Amaranth在2005年的前半年业绩还是负1%，结果8月份的业绩直接实现了5%的正收益，9月份达到了7.5%，当年该基金的收益达到了15%，管理规模增长至72亿美元。布雷恩·亨特个人拿到了1.13亿美元的巨额奖金。</b></p><p>也正是这一战过后，亨特开始飘了，他认为自己能赚到一个亿，就一定能够赚到更多，自那以后，一个亿在他眼里已经完完全全就是一个小目标。</p><p>得到老板的信任后，他还成立了一个事业部，将工作地点从康乃狄克州搬到自己老家——加拿大的卡尔加里。</p><p>在这里他犯了一个致命的错误，为他后面的失败埋下伏笔。他的工作室找了好几个交易员和行政人员，<b>唯独没有招风控人员，他当时的风控还是由远在康乃狄克州总部的大卫(David Chasman)负责。</b>但是，他们没办法像之前那样对每笔交易的风控进行实时评估，更多的是通过电脑来完成，而且大卫太过相信亨特了。</p><p>进入2006年后，亨特再次布局天然气，那个冬天是个暖冬，天然气需求并不旺盛，导致天然气价格起不来。亨特认为，下个冬天一定不会再出现暖冬的情况，到时候天然气需求会非常旺盛。</p><p>于是，<b>他开始短期做空天然气合约，同时做多天然气远期合约。</b>截至2006年2月，NYMEX中11月天然气空头合约中有70%是他的仓位，2007年1月的远期天然气多头看涨合约中有60%也是他的仓位。可见他当时的仓位是有多重。</p><p>当时他每天的浮动盈亏都在几千万美元的级别，运气好的时候一周他能赚几亿美元。他坚持认为自己的判断是对的，并且想趁机赚笔大的。2006年前4个月，他又为公司赚了20亿美元。</p><p>但这一次，幸运之神没有再眷顾他。<b>2006年8月底至9月初，NYMEX天然气期货的远期合约价格大幅下降，亨特的短期做空，长期做多的策略失败了。</b>Amaranth对冲基金遭遇巨额亏损。2006年9月中旬，Amaranth创始人马奥尼斯(Nicholas Maounis)在给投资人的邮件中表示，亏损规模高达30亿美元。不过，他还是选择继续相信亨特。</p><p>事实证明，他的信错人了。到了这时候，亨特依然不认输，他还认为自己的判断是对的，只要扛过了这个阶段，就能再次创造辉煌。<b>这时候的他已经失去了理性判断的能力，他不仅没有减仓，反而还是按照原来的策略继续加仓。到了2006年9月底，这家基金的亏损扩大至66亿美元，被迫宣布破产。</b></p><p>从名声响彻华尔街到陨落，亨特只用了一年多的时间。他的传奇故事就像一颗划过华尔街上空的流星，璀璨，但也短暂。</p><p>爆仓的根源在哪里？</p><p>其实，不管是职业交易员还是普通的散户，爆仓的根源其实如出一辙。</p><p>从亨特的例子中，我们可以看到，他确实犯了很多低级的错误，比如没有做好风控、在严重亏损的时候还继续加仓，还有过度自信和自我膨胀等。</p><p>他爆仓的根源主要在于两个方面：一是没有做好风控；二是仓位过重。这也是大多数爆仓的交易者都会犯的错误。</p><p><b>他先是忽略了风控的重要性，结果又开始重仓交易，并且在已经出现重大亏损的时候继续死扛甚至加仓，最终导致爆仓。</b>这种操作方式可以用一个字来形容——狠。</p><p>在期货市场爆仓过8次的管洪志一开始的操作手法也透露着狠劲。他基本上使开盘后看到价格涨了就立马追涨，跌了就追跌，被套了就扛着，跌了就加仓。<b>仓位基本上都是在70%-80%，满仓干的情况也时有发生。结果几年下来他在市场上把自己弄得「遍体鳞伤」，光是爆仓就经历了8回。</b></p><p>此外，在交易中，当你过分地去追求某个非常明确的目标时，也很容易犯前面提到的两个错误。比如这位叫做马克·温斯坦的华尔街交易员，他在上世纪70年代的时候立志要赚足100万美元，然后在法国买一座心仪的城堡，当时他看上的那座城堡的价格是35万美元。</p><p><b>为了实现这个目标，他重仓了大豆期货，并且忽略了风险。</b>当时他每天的亏损相当于其账户净资产每天亏损近10%。当时的压力几乎让温斯坦处于崩溃的边缘，他还曾倒在女朋友怀里嚎啕大哭，甚至想过完全退出交易这行。</p><p>包括一些交易大神在内，很多交易员爆仓的原因都是重仓+忽略风控。可能是交易者本身对风控只是甚少，觉得风控就是简单设置一下止盈止损；也可能是交易员本身对风控的理解比较深入了，但系统还不完善，简单来说就是自己的风控系统还存在漏洞。</p><p>而重仓的原因本质上只有一个，那就是过分追求高收益，想要在一笔交易中获得自己预期的或者更高的收益。</p><p>交易大佬爆仓后怎么熬过来？</p><p>上面讲到的几个事例中，亨特有没有再次崛起不得而知，但管洪志却在8次爆仓后又崛起了，<b>将1500万做大至1亿元。马克·温斯坦也并没有彻底离开市场，而是熬过来了，成为连续盈利80个月的高胜算交易员。</b></p><p>虽然他们爆仓的原因都相差不大，但是他们从爆仓中领悟到的东西却各有不同。</p><ul><li><b>以稳代狠</b></li></ul><p>在经历了8次爆仓后，管洪志的操作方式逐渐趋稳，那股狠劲再也见不到了，满仓的情况几乎见不到了。<b>他大多数情况下都是先用15%的资金来试盘，等到确定自己做的方向对了，底仓开始出现盈利后才逐渐加仓。</b></p><p>8次的爆仓经历让他明白，<b>交易最重要的是遵守纪律、严格执行计划、以及资金和仓位的管理。仓位管理尤其重要，如果一开始进场就将用了30%甚至更高的仓位，然后又在亏损的情况下继续加仓，很容易就造成严重亏损甚至爆仓，还会影响到交易者的心理。</b></p><p>为了控制风险，除了仓位管理外，他还采取了其他措施。比如，根据盘面的强弱，在不同品种之间进行对冲交易。例如在农产品表现强，金属表现弱的时候，他会根据一定比例做多油脂，同时做空金属。</p><ul><li><b>学会敬畏市场</b></li></ul><p>根据马克·温斯坦的回忆，他在经历爆仓后，<b>之所以能够做到连续80个月盈利的成绩，很重要一点就是他学会了敬畏市场。</b></p><p>之前他就是太过自信，认为自己一定能从市场中赚到一座城堡，不经分析就盲目入场，结果就栽了跟头。<b>他发现成功的交易员通常都是一些最畏惧市场的人。对市场交易的恐惧心理迫使他必须选择最佳的进场时机，要是他哪天觉得市场情况不对，或者对行情完全摸不着头脑，他宁愿当天不交易。</b></p><p>每个人从爆仓的过程中领悟到的东西都不同，有些人可能什么也没从中学到，这周爆仓了后也不去反思，结果没过多久又爆仓了。</p><p>爆仓的原因很多人其实都懂，但很多人还是会重复犯错。根源在于心态不正确，很多人就算爆过仓，知道怎样会导致爆仓后下次依然可能再犯，就比如第一个故事里的亨特。因为对金钱的欲望会让人好了伤疤忘了疼。</p><p>要知道，<b>交易的本质是一个概率游戏，只有深刻理解到这一点，才能正确看待交易盈亏，当你能够正确看待交易中的盈亏时，就不会再去一味地追求胜率，到了那个时候，自然就会跟爆仓说再见了。</b></p>","source":"lsy1595930700684","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n那些年爆仓的交易大神们，是如何逆袭的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-26 11:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win><strong>腾讯自选股财讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca171a0387ab62cb47edf08f7bb0a12","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JoR5ZLQkmr_muXMh1hCEag?st=09272F01C7821127D30BF8D98156F273DDE01F3A6F5BC099FE53CD65A2660B1DDB3A527C24B1C441BD4B0286D3ECC407733A023FD92B069A4DBEE462C2B6593308EF595F3ABE4536D24277DA2F7B6922051A24C25E93A5CB36C374A28125BAC4A3F36F68304C8E16276782FDEAFFF515BC2FF9B2204CAB46FA297E2CE8D4D6E4D7C84FBEFDC840E4341CDCC7FEFC6E10&vid=1688850698032889&cst=E8D47568E194102DDB56040AA2842CF07DB7B21A90D6B66B3ED58424BBE88B1E5E1463C1E4763CFD326DB7C5C63F4E7E&deviceid=9cef0c93-3905-4674-925e-08da625428b7&version=3.0.36.2008&platform=win","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195175253","content_text":"爆仓几乎是所有交易员都必须经历的一道坎，不管是散户还是交易大神，都逃不过爆仓。区别在于，有些人在爆仓之后能够吃一堑长一智，之后就很少再爆仓或者遭遇大的亏损；而另一些人则反复爆仓，可能这个月刚爆完，下个月又爆了。那些爆仓后能熬过来的人，几乎都能够在交易领域取得不错的成绩，甚至成为普通交易者眼中的大神。那么，他们为何能够在爆仓后实现逆袭，从此远离爆仓呢？下面就一起来看看。从大赚几十亿到破产，大神也逃不过爆仓爆仓或者严重亏损不仅对普通散户来说是家常便饭，就算是交易大神，这种情况也是时有发生。就算是过去战绩再怎么辉煌的交易员，也可能一夜爆仓。跟大多数普通人一样，交易大佬们的爆仓往往也是从重仓和自我膨胀开始的。在这个市场中，一旦你开始膨胀，在不理智的情况下不断加仓，不管你之前有多厉害，都可能会掉进深渊。一战成名的魔鬼交易员布雷恩·亨特(Brain Hunter)就是一个非常典型的例子。他曾经在德意志银行当过三年的天然气期货交易员，在这期间他有过辉煌的交易战绩，也曾一周爆仓亏损5120万美元。但这些跟他后面的经历相比根本不值一提，让布雷恩·亨特一战成名的那场战役是从他跳槽到对冲基金Amaranth开始的。2005年的夏天，布雷恩·亨特发现了一个「捡钱」的交易机会，他发现当时美国的天然气价格非常低，每百万英热(MMBTU)仅为6到8美元。布雷恩·亨特认定，只要等到夏天一过，进入冬季后美国每家每户都要依靠天然气来取暖，到时候需求必然飙升，价格也将随着水涨船高，于是他大量买入价格低廉的天然气看涨期权，等待价格回升。然而，还没等到冬季来临，幸运之神就降临到布雷恩·亨特头上。2005年8月25日，一场史上最大规模的飓风——卡特里娜飓风，席卷了美国。美国大量的天然气生产运营基地被毁，导致供应严重受损，而且由于路面交通也在飓风中被摧毁，导致相关人员无法及时维修。天然气价格立马就暴涨，从6美元飙升至10月的14美元，到12月中旬涨至15.38美元的顶峰，随后又快速回落至原先的6美元。布雷恩·亨特一战成名，他持有的天然气看涨期权给他带来了巨额回报，更幸运的是，连他用来对冲风险的天然气空头仓位，也在之后的天然气价格回落中获利不少。布雷恩·亨特这一战到底赚了多少呢？他所在的对冲基金Amaranth在2005年的前半年业绩还是负1%，结果8月份的业绩直接实现了5%的正收益，9月份达到了7.5%，当年该基金的收益达到了15%，管理规模增长至72亿美元。布雷恩·亨特个人拿到了1.13亿美元的巨额奖金。也正是这一战过后，亨特开始飘了，他认为自己能赚到一个亿，就一定能够赚到更多，自那以后，一个亿在他眼里已经完完全全就是一个小目标。得到老板的信任后，他还成立了一个事业部，将工作地点从康乃狄克州搬到自己老家——加拿大的卡尔加里。在这里他犯了一个致命的错误，为他后面的失败埋下伏笔。他的工作室找了好几个交易员和行政人员，唯独没有招风控人员，他当时的风控还是由远在康乃狄克州总部的大卫(David Chasman)负责。但是，他们没办法像之前那样对每笔交易的风控进行实时评估，更多的是通过电脑来完成，而且大卫太过相信亨特了。进入2006年后，亨特再次布局天然气，那个冬天是个暖冬，天然气需求并不旺盛，导致天然气价格起不来。亨特认为，下个冬天一定不会再出现暖冬的情况，到时候天然气需求会非常旺盛。于是，他开始短期做空天然气合约，同时做多天然气远期合约。截至2006年2月，NYMEX中11月天然气空头合约中有70%是他的仓位，2007年1月的远期天然气多头看涨合约中有60%也是他的仓位。可见他当时的仓位是有多重。当时他每天的浮动盈亏都在几千万美元的级别，运气好的时候一周他能赚几亿美元。他坚持认为自己的判断是对的，并且想趁机赚笔大的。2006年前4个月，他又为公司赚了20亿美元。但这一次，幸运之神没有再眷顾他。2006年8月底至9月初，NYMEX天然气期货的远期合约价格大幅下降，亨特的短期做空，长期做多的策略失败了。Amaranth对冲基金遭遇巨额亏损。2006年9月中旬，Amaranth创始人马奥尼斯(Nicholas Maounis)在给投资人的邮件中表示，亏损规模高达30亿美元。不过，他还是选择继续相信亨特。事实证明，他的信错人了。到了这时候，亨特依然不认输，他还认为自己的判断是对的，只要扛过了这个阶段，就能再次创造辉煌。这时候的他已经失去了理性判断的能力，他不仅没有减仓，反而还是按照原来的策略继续加仓。到了2006年9月底，这家基金的亏损扩大至66亿美元，被迫宣布破产。从名声响彻华尔街到陨落，亨特只用了一年多的时间。他的传奇故事就像一颗划过华尔街上空的流星，璀璨，但也短暂。爆仓的根源在哪里？其实，不管是职业交易员还是普通的散户，爆仓的根源其实如出一辙。从亨特的例子中，我们可以看到，他确实犯了很多低级的错误，比如没有做好风控、在严重亏损的时候还继续加仓，还有过度自信和自我膨胀等。他爆仓的根源主要在于两个方面：一是没有做好风控；二是仓位过重。这也是大多数爆仓的交易者都会犯的错误。他先是忽略了风控的重要性，结果又开始重仓交易，并且在已经出现重大亏损的时候继续死扛甚至加仓，最终导致爆仓。这种操作方式可以用一个字来形容——狠。在期货市场爆仓过8次的管洪志一开始的操作手法也透露着狠劲。他基本上使开盘后看到价格涨了就立马追涨，跌了就追跌，被套了就扛着，跌了就加仓。仓位基本上都是在70%-80%，满仓干的情况也时有发生。结果几年下来他在市场上把自己弄得「遍体鳞伤」，光是爆仓就经历了8回。此外，在交易中，当你过分地去追求某个非常明确的目标时，也很容易犯前面提到的两个错误。比如这位叫做马克·温斯坦的华尔街交易员，他在上世纪70年代的时候立志要赚足100万美元，然后在法国买一座心仪的城堡，当时他看上的那座城堡的价格是35万美元。为了实现这个目标，他重仓了大豆期货，并且忽略了风险。当时他每天的亏损相当于其账户净资产每天亏损近10%。当时的压力几乎让温斯坦处于崩溃的边缘，他还曾倒在女朋友怀里嚎啕大哭，甚至想过完全退出交易这行。包括一些交易大神在内，很多交易员爆仓的原因都是重仓+忽略风控。可能是交易者本身对风控只是甚少，觉得风控就是简单设置一下止盈止损；也可能是交易员本身对风控的理解比较深入了，但系统还不完善，简单来说就是自己的风控系统还存在漏洞。而重仓的原因本质上只有一个，那就是过分追求高收益，想要在一笔交易中获得自己预期的或者更高的收益。交易大佬爆仓后怎么熬过来？上面讲到的几个事例中，亨特有没有再次崛起不得而知，但管洪志却在8次爆仓后又崛起了，将1500万做大至1亿元。马克·温斯坦也并没有彻底离开市场，而是熬过来了，成为连续盈利80个月的高胜算交易员。虽然他们爆仓的原因都相差不大，但是他们从爆仓中领悟到的东西却各有不同。以稳代狠在经历了8次爆仓后，管洪志的操作方式逐渐趋稳，那股狠劲再也见不到了，满仓的情况几乎见不到了。他大多数情况下都是先用15%的资金来试盘，等到确定自己做的方向对了，底仓开始出现盈利后才逐渐加仓。8次的爆仓经历让他明白，交易最重要的是遵守纪律、严格执行计划、以及资金和仓位的管理。仓位管理尤其重要，如果一开始进场就将用了30%甚至更高的仓位，然后又在亏损的情况下继续加仓，很容易就造成严重亏损甚至爆仓，还会影响到交易者的心理。为了控制风险，除了仓位管理外，他还采取了其他措施。比如，根据盘面的强弱，在不同品种之间进行对冲交易。例如在农产品表现强，金属表现弱的时候，他会根据一定比例做多油脂，同时做空金属。学会敬畏市场根据马克·温斯坦的回忆，他在经历爆仓后，之所以能够做到连续80个月盈利的成绩，很重要一点就是他学会了敬畏市场。之前他就是太过自信，认为自己一定能从市场中赚到一座城堡，不经分析就盲目入场，结果就栽了跟头。他发现成功的交易员通常都是一些最畏惧市场的人。对市场交易的恐惧心理迫使他必须选择最佳的进场时机，要是他哪天觉得市场情况不对，或者对行情完全摸不着头脑，他宁愿当天不交易。每个人从爆仓的过程中领悟到的东西都不同，有些人可能什么也没从中学到，这周爆仓了后也不去反思，结果没过多久又爆仓了。爆仓的原因很多人其实都懂，但很多人还是会重复犯错。根源在于心态不正确，很多人就算爆过仓，知道怎样会导致爆仓后下次依然可能再犯，就比如第一个故事里的亨特。因为对金钱的欲望会让人好了伤疤忘了疼。要知道，交易的本质是一个概率游戏，只有深刻理解到这一点，才能正确看待交易盈亏，当你能够正确看待交易中的盈亏时，就不会再去一味地追求胜率，到了那个时候，自然就会跟爆仓说再见了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":391052723,"gmtCreate":1606448563862,"gmtModify":1704965656768,"author":{"id":"3560981274539122","authorId":"3560981274539122","name":"Kenbey2002","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd83ebfa57eec316a24976cf6e78dcc6","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3560981274539122","idStr":"3560981274539122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/391052723","repostId":"2086178620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2086178620","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1606426429,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2086178620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2020-11-27 05:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086178620","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险德意志银行上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。","content":"<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><b>德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”</p><p>德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”</p><p>德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。</p><p>不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。</p><p>第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/114/w550h364/20201127/1707-kentcvx7081690.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\"></p><p><b>阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></p><p>由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。</p><p>阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。</p><p>“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”</p><p>周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。</p><p>数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/48/w550h298/20201127/a07c-kentcvx7180402.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><b>比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></p><p>比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。</p><p>比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。</p><p>在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。</p><p>数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。</p><p>在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201127/846a-kentcvx7228558.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"351\"></p><p><b>美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></p><p>欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。</p><p>双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。</p><p>“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。</p><p>协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/99/w550h349/20201127/de53-kentcvx7222790.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><b>据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></p><p>在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。</p><p>据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。</p><p>他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。</p><p>一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。</p><p>上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/52/w550h302/20201127/8eb2-kentcvx7181843.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><b>OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></p><p>石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。</p><p>OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。</p><p>以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。</p><p>Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。</p><p>与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。</p><p>机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！&gt;&gt;</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：德银看好明年经济复苏，但存在两大主要风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-27 05:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">阿斯利康</a>CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"></p><p><b>德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”</p><p>德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”</p><p>德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。</p><p>不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。</p><p>第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/114/w550h364/20201127/1707-kentcvx7081690.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\"></p><p><b>阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验</b></p><p>由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。</p><p>阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。</p><p>“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”</p><p>周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。</p><p>数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/48/w550h298/20201127/a07c-kentcvx7180402.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"298\"></p><p><b>比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？</b></p><p>比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。</p><p>比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。</p><p>在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。</p><p>数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。</p><p>在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/101/w550h351/20201127/846a-kentcvx7228558.jpg/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"351\"></p><p><b>美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍</b></p><p>欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。</p><p>双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。</p><p>“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。</p><p>协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/99/w550h349/20201127/de53-kentcvx7222790.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\"></p><p><b>据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判</b></p><p>在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。</p><p>据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。</p><p>他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。</p><p>一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。</p><p>上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。</p><p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/52/w550h302/20201127/8eb2-kentcvx7181843.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><b>OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎</b></p><p>石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。</p><p>OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。</p><p>以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。</p><p>Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。</p><p>与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。</p><p>机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！&gt;&gt;</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/59/w550h309/20201127/9036-kentcvx7081694.jpg/w720fin.jpg","relate_stocks":{"DB":"德意志银行","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","EBON":"亿邦国际","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2086178620","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险2、阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验3、比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？4、美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍5、据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判6、OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎德银看好2021年经济复苏 但存在两大主要风险德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）上调了2021年全球经济增长前景，但警告称，两个主要风险仍可能破坏新冠危机后的经济复苏。德意志银行集团首席经济学家David Folkerts-Landau指出：“由于新冠疫苗有效率处于预期的高端，这使经济恢复正常状态的可能性比一个月前预期的要快得多。”他在报告中称：“到2021年年底，该病毒可能不再对日常生活产生太大影响。”德意志银行表示，随着新冠疫苗的到来，“全球GDP很可能在明年二季度恢复到疫情前水平。”德意志银行认为，2020年全球GDP将萎缩3.7%，其中美国经济萎缩3.6%，欧元区萎缩7.4%。该行并预测，2021年美国经济将增长4%，欧元区经济将反弹5.6%，中国经济将大幅增长9.5%。不过，德意志银行警告称，存在两种可能使经济蒙上阴影的关键风险。第一个风险是，冬季来临控制病毒曲线的挑战，以及疫苗生产、分发和公众接受可能的延误，因近年来反疫苗接种运动和错误信息的不断增加。第二个主要风险来自可能的金融破坏，因“全球央行和财政当局已经采取了激进的行动，尤其是在美国和欧洲”来应对由疫情引起的经济危机。阿斯利康CEO：可能会在全球进行新一轮新冠疫苗试验由于目前的研究令阿斯利康新冠疫苗的有效性面临质疑，该公司首席执行官表示，可能会进行一轮额外的全球试验，以评估疫苗的功效。阿斯利康可能会进行新一轮试验，而非给目前正在进行的美国试验增添一个试验组，以评估降低剂量后的疫苗效果；在阿斯利康早前的研究中，低剂量的效果更好。该公司承认，之前错误地接种了较低剂量，引发外界的担忧。“现在我们发现了更好的效果，就必须进行证实，所以我们需要进行一轮额外的研究，”阿斯利康首席执行官Pascal Sorio在数据发布后首次接受采访时表示。他说，很可能会是额外的一轮“国际研究，但是这一轮速度可能会更快，因为我们知道有效性较高，所以需要的病人数量较小。”周一，阿斯利康及研发伙伴牛津大学表示，最初接种较低剂量，随后再注射完整的剂量，可以达到90%的有效性，而注射两剂完整剂量的有效性则为62%。数据发布的一天后，美国疫苗项目Operation Warp Speed的负责人表示，有效性较高的结果是在较年轻的受试者身上获得的，而一些人之所以接种了半剂，是因为疫苗装瓶时发生了错误，而阿斯利康或牛津大学的原始声明中并没有披露任何的相关信息。比特币等数字资产全线跳水 加密货币的火爆行情只是昙花一现？比特币周四重挫，其他数字货币跌幅更是超过20%，这种走势或令人对加密货币最新一轮涨势的持久性产生怀疑。比特币一度下跌14%，是3月份新冠疫情引发市场洗盘以来跌幅最惨重的几天之一。在开始暴跌的几小时前，比特币一度距离历史高位19511美元不到7%，如果按最高点计算，过去9个月该数字货币累计涨幅达到250%。比特币暴涨后，人们对监管收紧的担忧以及获利回吐操作成为本轮比特币突然跳水的原因之一。数据显示，包括瑞波币（XRP）在内的其他数字货币跌幅最高达到27%。在获得华尔街资管经理和基金公司的支持后，加密货币一时风光无两。这次它们的集体回落或引发对其在多元化投资组合中价值的新一番争论。美国与欧盟的“迷你”关税削减协议在欧洲议会扫除了最后障碍欧洲议会周四在布鲁塞尔投票通过取消此项进口关税措施，该措施对不同种类龙虾的税率在6%-16%之间。美国方面，则将把多类欧洲商品的税率下调50%，包括水晶玻璃器皿（不含玻璃杯）、打火机、预制餐食和推进剂等。双方贸易主管部门8月份商定的此项“迷你”协议是在严重分歧之下达成的罕见共识。摩擦包括特朗普以国家安全为由对欧洲金属加征关税、威胁以同样的理由以关税措施打击欧盟汽车和零部件、以及为了报复欧洲的数字税而对欧盟产品加征关税等。“希望这个下调关税的方案能为我们与美国进行更为平衡、更具雄心和全面的谈判铺平道路，”欧洲议会贸易委员会的德国籍主席Bernd Lange表示。协议总价值约为2亿美元。2019年，美国对欧盟的龙虾出口额为4200万欧元（5000万美元），而可以享受较低关税的欧盟产品的出口量达1.26亿欧元。据悉英国和欧盟准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判在参与谈判的主要官员因为新冠病毒被迫隔离之后，英国和欧盟的谈判代表准备本周末恢复面对面的贸易谈判。据知情人士透露，欧盟首席谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶周五将向欧盟27国的外交官通报最新谈判情况。他还将在定期通报中向沿海国家的渔业部长们做简报，但是这次会议意义重大，因为捕鱼权一直是达成更广泛贸易协议的障碍。一位欧盟官员称，为了防止最后时刻计划有变，欧盟谈判小组正准备前往伦敦，周六恢复谈判 。另一位代表说，这个消息尚未得到证实。上周，因为一名参与谈判的欧盟官员新冠病毒检测呈阳性，巴尼耶被迫进行自我隔离。据报道，法国警告英国的首席谈判代表David Frost，如果英国没有做出让步的准备，继续谈判没有意义。OPEC：面临新的石油过剩风险之际 必须保持谨慎石油输出国组织（OPEC）的轮值主席表示，该组织必须保持谨慎，因其内部数据指向，如果该组织及其盟国下周决定推进石油增产，明年初则会有新的石油过剩风险。OPEC轮值主席、阿尔及利亚能源部长Abdelmadjid Attar在电话采访中说，尽管本周原油价格在纽约涨至八个月高点每桶45美元，但这股飙涨势头可能被证明是脆弱的。以沙特和俄罗斯为首的23个国家组成的OPEC+将于周一和周二召开会议，决定是否推进原定于1月份增产190万桶/天的计划。该联盟已表示倾向于推迟该增产计划。Attar说：“如果我们希望达到符合所有人利益的公平价格，OPEC+将不得不维持其路线和其独特性”。与会代表透露，OPEC一个委员会于周三和周四召开了会议，得到的结论是，如果产油国推进增产，第一季度全球原油库存的增幅将达到20万桶/天。机构一致看好股市行情，2021年谁是最强风口？布局窗口期来临，立即开户，抢占投资先机！>>","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}