NiuBili personal page - To The Moon

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2021-03-21

expected

Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next

2021-02-25

Good news but will still go down

China's Xiaomi adds manufacturing muscle in India to boost phone production

2021-06-05

so many ipos

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-23

chiong ah

Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground

2021-03-02

wasted. didnt go in

SOS gains after refuting Hindenburg Research allegations

2021-03-02

Good news

U.S. manufacturing sector at three-year high, cost pressures mounting: ISM

2021-06-22

tech

周期、科技还香不香？下半年押注哪些板块？

2021-04-12

good

FOCUS-Canada's Telesat takes on Musk and Bezos in space race to provide fast broadband

2021-03-10

Chiong ah

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-02-22

$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$Good price to long now

2021-03-25

wat will happen

Powell Sees ‘Highly Desirable’ Gains Behind Modest Fed Jobs View

2021-03-22

STI so far so good

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-21

Tech stocks unpredictable

Facebook rose more than 4%

2021-03-21

Keep it up to the moon

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-21

Will market still fly as usual?

Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’

2021-03-20

stay stronge

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-03-11

EVs are on cooling down stage.

EV startup Canoo plans to roll out American-built, pod-like electric pickup in 2023

2021-03-07

too many Jiucai inside.

Palantir plunged more than 13%

2021-02-22

Thanks.

2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth

2021-06-22

ok

美联储议息宣告全球流动性拐点到来？

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n周期、科技还香不香？下半年押注哪些板块？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 09:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投资机会前景乐观，看好景气度较好的行业，如新能源汽车、电子等板块。\n对于上半年表现最好的周期板块，基金经理之间出现分歧，有基金机构认为，接下来周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。但也有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175629755","content_text":"又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投资机会前景乐观，看好景气度较好的行业，如新能源汽车、电子等板块。\n对于上半年表现最好的周期板块，基金经理之间出现分歧，有基金机构认为，接下来周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。但也有基金经理仍然看好，认为在经济复苏持续的背景下，周期板块仍有投资机会。\n或维持区间震荡\n经历了2020年的上涨之后，A股市场从春节后开始震荡调整，截至6月21日，上证综指和深证成指今年以来的涨幅分别只有1.62%和1.18%。上半年通胀预期叠加供需错配，原材料价格持续上行，钢铁、采掘、化工等周期行业领涨。\n即将进入2021年下半程，基金经理开始着手布局下半年。对于下半年的宏观经济，汇丰晋信基金首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示，整体来看，经济可能会放缓，但斜率可控，因基建和消费有较大的空间，A股有可能继续区间震荡。考虑到当前的宏观环境，后续投资应以自下而上的选股为主，关注企业的基本面和盈利能力，优选基本面超预期，或者成长性能够覆盖和消化估值的优质上市公司。\n金鹰基金权益投资部总经理陈立表示，展望下半年以及更长时期，全球经济整体复苏的力度和持续性尚需要观察，全球流动性的收缩预计是有序可控的。长期看，由于全球整体缺乏强有力的经济增长动能，维持较低增速概率大，全球中长期或仍将处于低利率环境。因此，投资者不应过度担忧，随着投资者对宏观流动性因素的认识提升后，市场将重回经济基本面。\n对于A股而言，陈立认为，与大宗商品相关度高、利率敏感的顺周期行业不排除会有回调的可能。不过，当前A股上市公司已经超过4300家，在产业更迭背景下具备长期结构性的投资机会。中长期而言，对权益市场的前景保持乐观。\n看好新能源车、电子等行业\n银华基金指出，当前宏观经济仍在持续恢复，对全年流动性依旧维持谨慎，社融后续表现恐仍偏弱。历史上看，这样的宏观背景不利于估值的扩张，后续市场不易走出单边行情，超额收益主要来自两方面：一是行业景气度能穿越经济周期，且估值与长期成长能力较为匹配的板块。二是精选Alpha，尤其是中小市值中，市场认知尚不充分、估值较低的成长股。\n银华基金建议，在行业配置上，建议均衡配置，一是建议逐步降低周期配置比例，配置银行等低估值行业以及自动化、汽车零部件等受益于全球经济复苏、出口产业链的偏中游制造类行业；二是中期看好受益于行业格局以及景气度仍较好的成长类子行业，如新能车、面板及军工等行业。\n富荣基金表示，短期维持市场整体偏震荡的格局不变，中长期认为业绩成长仍然是核心主线，看好高景气周期的光伏和电动车、电子等，看好低估值银行、部分周期龙头。\n诺安基金建议关注以下三大板块机会：一是科技板块，该板块近期或在行业基本面和政策的持续推动下有所表现；二是新能源板块，美国加码电动车刺激政策强化全球电动车逻辑正在验证，电动车板块行情或可延续；三是高端制造业，数据显示当前企业的资本开支在加大，未来业绩有望得到支撑。\n加仓or减持？对周期股看法不一\n周期板块是今年上半年最亮的星，精准把握周期股行情的基金，也在主动权益类基金中表现暂时领先，比如广发多因子、广发价值领先、宝盈产业优势等重仓周期行业股票的基金。\n对于下半年周期股行情能否持续，基金机构有不同的看法。银华基金认为，虽然当前全球复苏共振，宏观仍处于向上趋势，大宗商品价格或仍有上涨动力，但周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。\n也有基金经理表示，周期股上涨的主要逻辑就在于供需错配，一般情况下，只需要一到两个季度的时间，这种供需错配就会得到纠正，现在已是错配的尾部时间。\n仍然看好周期行情的基金经理也有充分的理由。一位明星基金经理表示：“市场对周期品的分歧，关键是对宏观经济的判断存在分歧”。全球供需不匹配、不均衡的复苏，还会持续一段时间。在经济持续复苏的背景下，周期品尤其是上游资源品的价格上涨，或者说价格在高点维持的时间，可能比市场预期得要长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120537564,"gmtCreate":1624327375458,"gmtModify":1703833578845,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120537564","repostId":"1182298025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182298025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1624326846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182298025?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 09:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储议息宣告全球流动性拐点到来？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182298025","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步","content":"<p><b>当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。</b>年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。</p>\n<p><b>在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。</b>此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。<b>美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响<b>当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。</b>另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得<b>货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？</b></p>\n<p><b>中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。</b>2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。</p>\n<p><b>经济预期方面，</b>此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，</b>美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，</b>此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。</p>\n<p><b>货币政策目标方面，</b>美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5facc653e3750d620ae5403645d79aee\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。</b>利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。</p>\n<p><b>政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。</b>点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0906da13791f02a15ffb0be7fa22075\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8bed8bbe42a034df262883e74c1ed\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费</b></p>\n<p><b>消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。</b>美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。</p>\n<p><b>投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。</p>\n<p><b>生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。</p>\n<p><b>景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。</b>美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。</b>从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。</b>美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。</p>\n<p><b>疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。</b>美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。</p>\n<p><b>3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来</b></p>\n<p><b>当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，<b>因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来</b>。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而<b>公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p>3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓</p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。</b>美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。</p>\n<p><b>通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。</b>美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。</p>\n<p>随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。</p>\n<p><b>赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。</b>美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。</p>\n<p>一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。</p>\n<p>3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径</p>\n<p>我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</p>\n<p>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</p>\n<p>美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3ef0b2a0c1b75211e1304a93310251\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。</p>\n<p>另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</p>\n<p><b>4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响</b></p>\n<p>4.1 美元周期的传导原理</p>\n<p>美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。</p>\n<p>从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。</p>\n<p>从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。</p>\n<p>4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道</p>\n<p><b>预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。</b>目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。</p>\n<p><b>随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。</b>美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。</p>\n<p><b>综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b>根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59767fe1a8803a527a3021ce6c3f46c4\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击</p>\n<p><b>本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。</b>近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。</p>\n<p>2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。</p>\n<p>自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。</p>\n<p>随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08ff58d709265de8bf8dec48bf6ed7\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674ef08637165a1a54a869832d863d42\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc04b78808e871f905a63fee14ad358\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险</p>\n<p><b>中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。</b>人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。</p>\n<p>我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5abc33895662274d8a43b24bd5cd97\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1559601c05152d2a6403a2ac64984d\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"449\" 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储议息宣告全球流动性拐点到来？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 09:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。</b>年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。</p>\n<p><b>在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。</b>此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。<b>美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响<b>当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。</b>另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得<b>货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？</b></p>\n<p><b>中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。</b>2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。</p>\n<p><b>经济预期方面，</b>此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，</b>美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，</b>此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。</p>\n<p><b>货币政策目标方面，</b>美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5facc653e3750d620ae5403645d79aee\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。</b>利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。</p>\n<p><b>政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。</b>点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0906da13791f02a15ffb0be7fa22075\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8bed8bbe42a034df262883e74c1ed\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费</b></p>\n<p><b>消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。</b>美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。</p>\n<p><b>投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。</p>\n<p><b>生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。</p>\n<p><b>景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。</b>美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。</b>从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。</b>美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。</p>\n<p><b>疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。</b>美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。</p>\n<p><b>3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来</b></p>\n<p><b>当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，<b>因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来</b>。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而<b>公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p>3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓</p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。</b>美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。</p>\n<p><b>通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。</b>美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。</p>\n<p>随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。</p>\n<p><b>赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。</b>美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。</p>\n<p>一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。</p>\n<p>3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径</p>\n<p>我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</p>\n<p>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</p>\n<p>美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3ef0b2a0c1b75211e1304a93310251\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。</p>\n<p>另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</p>\n<p><b>4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响</b></p>\n<p>4.1 美元周期的传导原理</p>\n<p>美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。</p>\n<p>从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。</p>\n<p>从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。</p>\n<p>4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道</p>\n<p><b>预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。</b>目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。</p>\n<p><b>随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。</b>美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。</p>\n<p><b>综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b>根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59767fe1a8803a527a3021ce6c3f46c4\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击</p>\n<p><b>本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。</b>近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。</p>\n<p>2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。</p>\n<p>自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。</p>\n<p>随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08ff58d709265de8bf8dec48bf6ed7\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674ef08637165a1a54a869832d863d42\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc04b78808e871f905a63fee14ad358\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险</p>\n<p><b>中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。</b>人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。</p>\n<p>我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5abc33895662274d8a43b24bd5cd97\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1559601c05152d2a6403a2ac64984d\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182298025","content_text":"当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。\n在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。\n随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？\n中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。\n1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期\n美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。\n经济预期方面，此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。\n就业方面，美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。\n通胀方面，此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。\n货币政策目标方面，美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。\n\n政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。\n政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。\n\n2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费\n消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。\n投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。\n生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。\n景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。\n就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。\n通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。\n疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。\n3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来\n当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓\n美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。\n通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。\n随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。\n赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。\n一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。\n3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径\n我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。\n\n必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。\n另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响\n4.1 美元周期的传导原理\n美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。\n从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。\n从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。\n4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道\n预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。\n随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。\n综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。\n\n4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击\n本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。\n2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。\n自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。\n随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。\n\n从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。\n\n4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险\n中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。\n我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185492498,"gmtCreate":1623665219914,"gmtModify":1704208124169,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long hold","listText":"Long hold","text":"Long 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point..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e70f30b3cb07adb32f5ba9f783936908","width":"1440","height":"5416"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182909115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180622565,"gmtCreate":1623202608257,"gmtModify":1704198234715,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"volume increasing.","listText":"volume increasing.","text":"volume 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now","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64adee2100adee83ec272f7ae0aeb058","width":"1440","height":"3145"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114915727","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112541752,"gmtCreate":1622892704576,"gmtModify":1704193060636,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so many ipos","listText":"so many ipos","text":"so many ipos","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112541752","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106312903?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>\n <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>\n <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p>\n<p>Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p>\n<p>Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p>\n<p>Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p>\n<p>Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p>\n<p>BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p>\n<p>Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p>\n<p>Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p>\n<p>Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p>\n<p>Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p>\n<p><b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p>\n<p>The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-05 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div><strong>Renaissance Capital</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","BZ":"BOSS直聘",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ZME":"掌门教育",".DJI":"道琼斯","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111257410,"gmtCreate":1622683918130,"gmtModify":1704188837358,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2nd entry point now","listText":"2nd entry point now","text":"2nd entry point 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sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a72054c22e0918fc5e4e5e826daf5abd","width":"1440","height":"4502"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102352118","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101463159,"gmtCreate":1619932395271,"gmtModify":1704336537228,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong buy when it is low","listText":"Strong buy when it is low","text":"Strong buy when it is low","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5d9cfc8252a249a308661973edf315","width":"1440","height":"4626"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101463159","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101060253,"gmtCreate":1619831117972,"gmtModify":1704335442849,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"strong hold","listText":"strong hold","text":"strong hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101060253","repostId":"2132548564","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2132548564","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1620001778,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132548564?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks have risen to all-time highs this year. Should you ‘sell in May and go away’?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132548564","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"In the past, the sell-in-May strategy shakes out better in Europe than in the U.S.\n\nStocks have been","content":"<p>In the past, the sell-in-May strategy shakes out better in Europe than in the U.S.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b93b4406770158f62b0e2dd392f424\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"822\"></p>\n<p>Stocks have been on a tear this year, leaving investors to question whether to \"sell in May and go away.\"</p>\n<p>\"With stocks at record highs, some investors may be tempted to follow the old adage,\" a team of strategists at UBS Group's global wealth management division, wrote in a note Friday.</p>\n<p>The hypothesis is that equities tend to underperform in the six months through October, so investors should sell stocks at the start of May, invest in cash and then re-enter the market in late autumn, the strategists said. Historically, the approach has worked for Europe, but not as well in the U.S., according to their note.</p>\n<p>\"In the U.S., a stay invested strategy has tended to outperform, particularly in recent years,\" the strategists said. \"Market composition, with the U.S. market more tilted towards growth stocks, partly explains the outperformance.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b499645739c349ea55647a2512665932\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"808\"></p>\n<p>The technology sector now accounts for 27% of the S&amp;P 500, or much higher than the 8% weighting for the MSCI Europe index, according to UBS. For that reason, investors who tried timing the U.S. equity benchmark for \"seasonal reasons\" would have missed the outperformance of growth stocks in the bull market since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.</p>\n<p>Using the past as a guide, the UBS team recommends staying invested, even through they also point to historical evidence in Europe that supported a sell-in-May strategy.</p>\n<p>Over the past 15 years, returns in Europe have been negative in June 80% of the time, according to the report. \"This has contributed to a sell-in-May strategy outperforming a stay invested strategy during those years,\" the strategists said.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has risen to all-time records this year, including as recently as this week, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmarks. The S&amp;P 500 rose to a record 4,211.47 finish on April 29, for example, and was up 11.3% this year as of Friday's close.</p>\n<p>\"We are now entering a time of year when stocks have historically found it more challenging to advance,\" according to the UBS report. \"With many equity indexes making new highs, some measures of sentiment looking extended, and ongoing concerns about the spread of new COVID-19 variants,\" some investors may be contemplating selling.</p>\n<p>Billionaire investor Leon Cooperman, a self-described \"fully invested bear,\" told CNBC on Friday that he has \"an eye on the exit\" given a coming expected rise in taxes, inflation and a \"reasonably richly appraised market.\"</p>\n<p>Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, said in a blog Friday that the six months from May through October have been \"some of the weakest months of the year for stocks\" in the past 10 years. \"But with an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions,\" he said.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50be26e2a50ece27ce6023a634a9e705\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"725\"></p>\n<p>\"Here's the catch,\" Detrick said. \"Stocks have actually been higher during these worst months of the year eight of the past ten years.\"</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks have risen to all-time highs this year. Should you ‘sell in May and go away’?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks have risen to all-time highs this year. Should you ‘sell in May and go away’?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 08:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-have-risen-to-all-time-highs-this-year-should-you-sell-in-may-and-go-away-11619818845?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the past, the sell-in-May strategy shakes out better in Europe than in the U.S.\n\nStocks have been on a tear this year, leaving investors to question whether to \"sell in May and go away.\"\n\"With ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-have-risen-to-all-time-highs-this-year-should-you-sell-in-may-and-go-away-11619818845?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-have-risen-to-all-time-highs-this-year-should-you-sell-in-may-and-go-away-11619818845?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2132548564","content_text":"In the past, the sell-in-May strategy shakes out better in Europe than in the U.S.\n\nStocks have been on a tear this year, leaving investors to question whether to \"sell in May and go away.\"\n\"With stocks at record highs, some investors may be tempted to follow the old adage,\" a team of strategists at UBS Group's global wealth management division, wrote in a note Friday.\nThe hypothesis is that equities tend to underperform in the six months through October, so investors should sell stocks at the start of May, invest in cash and then re-enter the market in late autumn, the strategists said. Historically, the approach has worked for Europe, but not as well in the U.S., according to their note.\n\"In the U.S., a stay invested strategy has tended to outperform, particularly in recent years,\" the strategists said. \"Market composition, with the U.S. market more tilted towards growth stocks, partly explains the outperformance.\"\n\nThe technology sector now accounts for 27% of the S&P 500, or much higher than the 8% weighting for the MSCI Europe index, according to UBS. For that reason, investors who tried timing the U.S. equity benchmark for \"seasonal reasons\" would have missed the outperformance of growth stocks in the bull market since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.\nUsing the past as a guide, the UBS team recommends staying invested, even through they also point to historical evidence in Europe that supported a sell-in-May strategy.\nOver the past 15 years, returns in Europe have been negative in June 80% of the time, according to the report. \"This has contributed to a sell-in-May strategy outperforming a stay invested strategy during those years,\" the strategists said.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. stock market has risen to all-time records this year, including as recently as this week, as measured by the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmarks. The S&P 500 rose to a record 4,211.47 finish on April 29, for example, and was up 11.3% this year as of Friday's close.\n\"We are now entering a time of year when stocks have historically found it more challenging to advance,\" according to the UBS report. \"With many equity indexes making new highs, some measures of sentiment looking extended, and ongoing concerns about the spread of new COVID-19 variants,\" some investors may be contemplating selling.\nBillionaire investor Leon Cooperman, a self-described \"fully invested bear,\" told CNBC on Friday that he has \"an eye on the exit\" given a coming expected rise in taxes, inflation and a \"reasonably richly appraised market.\"\nRyan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, said in a blog Friday that the six months from May through October have been \"some of the weakest months of the year for stocks\" in the past 10 years. \"But with an accommodative Fed, fiscal and monetary policy, along with an economy that is opening faster than nearly anyone expected, we'd use any weakness as an opportunity to add to positions,\" he said.\n\n\"Here's the catch,\" Detrick said. \"Stocks have actually been higher during these worst months of the year eight of the past ten years.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103936378,"gmtCreate":1619742300594,"gmtModify":1704271626662,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"best time to buy now","listText":"best time to buy now","text":"best time to buy now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103936378","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373642016,"gmtCreate":1618844799335,"gmtModify":1704715827640,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"strong hold","listText":"strong hold","text":"strong hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373642016","repostId":"2128891469","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2128891469","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618840680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128891469?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 21:58","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128891469","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW UPDATE: Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000\n\n\n  By William Watts a","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000\n</p>\n<p>\n  By William Watts and Sunny Oh \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks pulled back modestly early Monday, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 ended last week at all-time highs as investors struggled for reasons to push equity benchmarks to new heights. \n</p>\n<p>\n  What are major indexes doing? \n</p>\n<p>\n  The Dow and S&amp;P 500 closed at records on Friday , while the Nasdaq Composite booked its second-highest finish of all time. For the week, the Dow rose 1.2%, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%. It was the fourth straight weekly rise for the Dow and S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq booked its third consecutive weekly gain. \n</p>\n<p>\n  What's driving the market? \n</p>\n<p>\n  Though equities Monday morning looked to be taking a breather from last week's record advance Monday, analysts said the tone remained constructive given a lack of any major negative catalysts. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read:Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so freaked out?  \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Overall, it looks like clear skies for equity markets. Policy makers are still holding investors by the hand and vaccination programs have accelerated dramatically,\" said Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst at XM, in a note. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Half of all adults in the U.S. have received at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> COVID-19 shot , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Sunday, as the vaccination campaign hit another milestone. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"The only real risks on the radar are excess inflation that leads the Fed to shift gears abruptly, some new vaccine-resistant variant, or the geopolitical temperature rising further in critical theaters like Ukraine or Taiwan,\" Hadjikyriacos said. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks received a lift last week as earnings season got under way with solid results from big banks and as investors digested strong economic data. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors continue to watch the debate around President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan, including his call to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Axios reported Sunday  that resistance among Senate Democrats was likely to limit a rise in the tax rate to 25%, which would raise $600 billion over 15 years and come in well short of offsetting the price tag of the eight-year $2.25 trillion package. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are gearing up for a fresh round of earnings, with 81 S&amp;P 500 companies, including 10 components of the Dow, set to deliver results. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"The heaviest period for earnings reports is this week and next. Obviously, recent market strength suggests high expectations. How companies perform relative to those expectations will determine the course of stock prices over the near term,\" said James Meyer, chief investment officer at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a> Bridge Advisors. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Which companies are in focus \n</p>\n<p>\n  How are other assets faring? \n</p>\n<p>\n  Need to Know:Forget bitcoin's weekend slump: Watch these 2 key levels for what happens next, strategist says  \n</p>\n<p>\n  -William Watts; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  April 19, 2021 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-19 21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000\n</p>\n<p>\n  By William Watts and Sunny Oh \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks pulled back modestly early Monday, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 ended last week at all-time highs as investors struggled for reasons to push equity benchmarks to new heights. \n</p>\n<p>\n  What are major indexes doing? \n</p>\n<p>\n  The Dow and S&amp;P 500 closed at records on Friday , while the Nasdaq Composite booked its second-highest finish of all time. For the week, the Dow rose 1.2%, while the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%. It was the fourth straight weekly rise for the Dow and S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq booked its third consecutive weekly gain. \n</p>\n<p>\n  What's driving the market? \n</p>\n<p>\n  Though equities Monday morning looked to be taking a breather from last week's record advance Monday, analysts said the tone remained constructive given a lack of any major negative catalysts. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Read:Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so freaked out?  \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"Overall, it looks like clear skies for equity markets. Policy makers are still holding investors by the hand and vaccination programs have accelerated dramatically,\" said Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst at XM, in a note. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Half of all adults in the U.S. have received at least <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> COVID-19 shot , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Sunday, as the vaccination campaign hit another milestone. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"The only real risks on the radar are excess inflation that leads the Fed to shift gears abruptly, some new vaccine-resistant variant, or the geopolitical temperature rising further in critical theaters like Ukraine or Taiwan,\" Hadjikyriacos said. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Stocks received a lift last week as earnings season got under way with solid results from big banks and as investors digested strong economic data. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors continue to watch the debate around President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan, including his call to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Axios reported Sunday  that resistance among Senate Democrats was likely to limit a rise in the tax rate to 25%, which would raise $600 billion over 15 years and come in well short of offsetting the price tag of the eight-year $2.25 trillion package. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Investors are gearing up for a fresh round of earnings, with 81 S&amp;P 500 companies, including 10 components of the Dow, set to deliver results. \n</p>\n<p>\n  \"The heaviest period for earnings reports is this week and next. Obviously, recent market strength suggests high expectations. How companies perform relative to those expectations will determine the course of stock prices over the near term,\" said James Meyer, chief investment officer at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a> Bridge Advisors. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Which companies are in focus \n</p>\n<p>\n  How are other assets faring? \n</p>\n<p>\n  Need to Know:Forget bitcoin's weekend slump: Watch these 2 key levels for what happens next, strategist says  \n</p>\n<p>\n  -William Watts; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  April 19, 2021 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128891469","content_text":"MW UPDATE: Dow pulls back from last week's records but retains grip on 34,000\n\n\n  By William Watts and Sunny Oh \n\n\n  Stocks pulled back modestly early Monday, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ended last week at all-time highs as investors struggled for reasons to push equity benchmarks to new heights. \n\n\n  What are major indexes doing? \n\n\n  The Dow and S&P 500 closed at records on Friday , while the Nasdaq Composite booked its second-highest finish of all time. For the week, the Dow rose 1.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%. It was the fourth straight weekly rise for the Dow and S&P 500, while the Nasdaq booked its third consecutive weekly gain. \n\n\n  What's driving the market? \n\n\n  Though equities Monday morning looked to be taking a breather from last week's record advance Monday, analysts said the tone remained constructive given a lack of any major negative catalysts. \n\n\n  Read:Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so freaked out?  \n\n\n  \"Overall, it looks like clear skies for equity markets. Policy makers are still holding investors by the hand and vaccination programs have accelerated dramatically,\" said Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst at XM, in a note. \n\n\n  Half of all adults in the U.S. have received at least one COVID-19 shot , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Sunday, as the vaccination campaign hit another milestone. \n\n\n  \"The only real risks on the radar are excess inflation that leads the Fed to shift gears abruptly, some new vaccine-resistant variant, or the geopolitical temperature rising further in critical theaters like Ukraine or Taiwan,\" Hadjikyriacos said. \n\n\n  Stocks received a lift last week as earnings season got under way with solid results from big banks and as investors digested strong economic data. \n\n\n  Investors continue to watch the debate around President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan, including his call to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Axios reported Sunday  that resistance among Senate Democrats was likely to limit a rise in the tax rate to 25%, which would raise $600 billion over 15 years and come in well short of offsetting the price tag of the eight-year $2.25 trillion package. \n\n\n  Investors are gearing up for a fresh round of earnings, with 81 S&P 500 companies, including 10 components of the Dow, set to deliver results. \n\n\n  \"The heaviest period for earnings reports is this week and next. Obviously, recent market strength suggests high expectations. How companies perform relative to those expectations will determine the course of stock prices over the near term,\" said James Meyer, chief investment officer at Tower Bridge Advisors. \n\n\n  Which companies are in focus \n\n\n  How are other assets faring? \n\n\n  Need to Know:Forget bitcoin's weekend slump: Watch these 2 key levels for what happens next, strategist says  \n\n\n  -William Watts; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  April 19, 2021 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370931810,"gmtCreate":1618541676630,"gmtModify":1704712464780,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yea","listText":"yea","text":"yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370931810","repostId":"2127880543","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2127880543","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618539023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127880543?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-16 10:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Tesla CEO Musk Says He Sees Limited Production Of Model Y This Year In Giga Texas, High Volume Next Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127880543","media":"Reuters","summary":"April 15 (Reuters) -    * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN GIG","content":"<html><body><p>April 15 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN GIGA TEXAS, HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEAR</p><p>   * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE ALSO SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN BERLIN FACTORY WITH HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEAR</p><p>Source text : </p><p> ((reuters.briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Tesla CEO Musk Says He Sees Limited Production Of Model Y This Year In Giga Texas, High Volume Next Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Tesla CEO Musk Says He Sees Limited Production Of Model Y This Year In Giga Texas, High Volume Next Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-16 10:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>April 15 (Reuters) - </p><p>   * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN GIGA TEXAS, HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEAR</p><p>   * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE ALSO SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN BERLIN FACTORY WITH HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEAR</p><p>Source text : </p><p> ((reuters.briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00075":"渝太地产","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127880543","content_text":"April 15 (Reuters) -    * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN GIGA TEXAS, HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEAR   * TESLA CEO MUSK SAYS HE ALSO SEES LIMITED PRODUCTION OF MODEL Y THIS YEAR IN BERLIN FACTORY WITH HIGH VOLUME NEXT YEARSource text :  ((reuters.briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":359339470,"gmtCreate":1616338787790,"gmtModify":1704792991569,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"expected","listText":"expected","text":"expected","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359339470","repostId":"1199154789","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199154789?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio  exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.</p><blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –<b>suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption</b>.\"</p><p>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"<b>Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability</b>\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:</p><blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. <b>Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.</b>To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. <b>However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.</b>The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.</blockquote><p>The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,<b>having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,<b>banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.</b></p><blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. <b>The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that<b>\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.</b></p><p>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).</p><p><b>So what happens next?</b></p><p>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"<i>the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market</i>:</p><blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. <b>Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.</b></blockquote><p>In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...</p><p>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:</p><blockquote><u><b>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b> <u><b>4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever</b></u> <b>Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates</b></blockquote><p>Going back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,<b>and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.</b>\"</p><p>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"</p><blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...</blockquote><p>While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.</p><p>* *&nbsp; *</p><p>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" as<b>the SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing</b>.</p><p>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is<b>\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”</b></p><p>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361462379,"gmtCreate":1614255699391,"gmtModify":1704769692492,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news but will still go down","listText":"Good news but will still go down","text":"Good news but will still go down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361462379","repostId":"2114317810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2114317810","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614249351,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2114317810?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-25 18:35","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China's Xiaomi adds manufacturing muscle in India to boost phone production","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2114317810","media":"Reuters","summary":"BENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China's Xiaomi Corp is enlisting more contract manufacturers to make i","content":"<p>BENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China's Xiaomi Corp is enlisting more contract manufacturers to make its phones in India, adding heft in a country where it is already <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the biggest smartphone brands.</p>\n<p>China's BYD and DBG will be the company's new suppliers in India, Manu Jain, managing director of Xiaomi's India operations, said at a press conference on Thursday.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi has been manufacturing phones in India for over half a decade and has rapidly grown in the highly competitive market where voice calling and data costs are <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the lowest in the world.</p>\n<p>\"Now 99% of our smartphones and 100% of our smart TVs are manufactured in India and the majority of the components for smartphones will be locally manufactured or sourced from India,\" the company said.</p>\n<p>The company remained India's top smartphone seller in 2020, with a 26% market share, data from research firm Counterpoint showed.</p>\n<p>Its latest expansion plans come at a time when Chinese firms have come under scrutiny as a result of growing tensions between New Delhi and Beijing that began with a border clash last year.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi said DBG has set up a smartphone manufacturing plant in the northern Indian state of Haryana, while BYD is setting up a plant in Tamil Nadu in south India.</p>\n<p>The company has also opened a new factory in the southern state of Telangana to make televisions, Jain said, adding that all televisions sold in India would be made or assembled locally.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi also makes phones at plants in India run by contract manufacturers Foxconn Technology Co and Flex Ltd.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China's Xiaomi adds manufacturing muscle in India to boost phone production</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina's Xiaomi adds manufacturing muscle in India to boost phone production\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-25 18:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China's Xiaomi Corp is enlisting more contract manufacturers to make its phones in India, adding heft in a country where it is already <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the biggest smartphone brands.</p>\n<p>China's BYD and DBG will be the company's new suppliers in India, Manu Jain, managing director of Xiaomi's India operations, said at a press conference on Thursday.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi has been manufacturing phones in India for over half a decade and has rapidly grown in the highly competitive market where voice calling and data costs are <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the lowest in the world.</p>\n<p>\"Now 99% of our smartphones and 100% of our smart TVs are manufactured in India and the majority of the components for smartphones will be locally manufactured or sourced from India,\" the company said.</p>\n<p>The company remained India's top smartphone seller in 2020, with a 26% market share, data from research firm Counterpoint showed.</p>\n<p>Its latest expansion plans come at a time when Chinese firms have come under scrutiny as a result of growing tensions between New Delhi and Beijing that began with a border clash last year.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi said DBG has set up a smartphone manufacturing plant in the northern Indian state of Haryana, while BYD is setting up a plant in Tamil Nadu in south India.</p>\n<p>The company has also opened a new factory in the southern state of Telangana to make televisions, Jain said, adding that all televisions sold in India would be made or assembled locally.</p>\n<p>Xiaomi also makes phones at plants in India run by contract manufacturers Foxconn Technology Co and Flex Ltd.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00285":"比亚迪电子","01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2114317810","content_text":"BENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - China's Xiaomi Corp is enlisting more contract manufacturers to make its phones in India, adding heft in a country where it is already one of the biggest smartphone brands.\nChina's BYD and DBG will be the company's new suppliers in India, Manu Jain, managing director of Xiaomi's India operations, said at a press conference on Thursday.\nXiaomi has been manufacturing phones in India for over half a decade and has rapidly grown in the highly competitive market where voice calling and data costs are one of the lowest in the world.\n\"Now 99% of our smartphones and 100% of our smart TVs are manufactured in India and the majority of the components for smartphones will be locally manufactured or sourced from India,\" the company said.\nThe company remained India's top smartphone seller in 2020, with a 26% market share, data from research firm Counterpoint showed.\nIts latest expansion plans come at a time when Chinese firms have come under scrutiny as a result of growing tensions between New Delhi and Beijing that began with a border clash last year.\nXiaomi said DBG has set up a smartphone manufacturing plant in the northern Indian state of Haryana, while BYD is setting up a plant in Tamil Nadu in south India.\nThe company has also opened a new factory in the southern state of Telangana to make televisions, Jain said, adding that all televisions sold in India would be made or assembled locally.\nXiaomi also makes phones at plants in India run by contract manufacturers Foxconn Technology Co and Flex Ltd.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574166160473753","authorId":"3574166160473753","name":"Ahvi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd216b3fbf19641a7fe648254585ce79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574166160473753","authorIdStr":"3574166160473753"},"content":"Why do you say so?","text":"Why do you say so?","html":"Why do you say so?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112541752,"gmtCreate":1622892704576,"gmtModify":1704193060636,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so many ipos","listText":"so many ipos","text":"so many ipos","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112541752","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935794,"gmtCreate":1616453912718,"gmtModify":1704794211077,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"chiong ah","listText":"chiong ah","text":"chiong ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935794","repostId":"1155582622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155582622","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616426086,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155582622?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-22 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155582622","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing  the most advanced high-end technology,  the largest and still rising market share, and  15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s lev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.</li>\n <li>TSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.</li>\n <li>If considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.</li>\n <li>The real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59820ae2f73b142d92ed1e65f1b1085d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>It is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said&nbsp;Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,<i>Stiftung Neue Verantwortung</i>.</p>\n<p>TSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.</p>\n<p>For that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s High Ground</b></p>\n<p>The best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:</p>\n<p><b>Most advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.</b>Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and&nbsp;60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered&nbsp;over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working&nbsp;on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068ca2e4582ecb2e1a44f88ec1093900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><b>The market share hits</b>&nbsp;<b>54%</b>&nbsp;<b>and expects to rise.</b>After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.</p>\n<p><b>Short-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.</b>Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage<b>,</b>full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC should see more corroboration</b>&nbsp;of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in&nbsp;AMD&nbsp;CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).</p>\n<p><b>The $28 billion capex spending</b>&nbsp;reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.</p>\n<p><b>TSMC’s Low Ground</b></p>\n<p>The low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:</p>\n<p><b>Decreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.</b>TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated&nbsp;that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Medium-term inventory correction is inevitable.</b>Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27ebf5f3771333335e3ec84dda7798fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"></p>\n<p><b>Average selling price (ASP) may go down.</b>TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho&nbsp;estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>Weakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.</b>Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on&nbsp;Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.</p>\n<p><b>$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment</b>. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget&nbsp;may cut into&nbsp;the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.</p>\n<p><b>From Future Financials to Future Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>After the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8598e14f696255c7faa92760ef906f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed9aa585df33e69929a8a843f28e00f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\"></p>\n<p>Keep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.</p>\n<p><b>High-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices</b></p>\n<p>For high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad3a771ad144f1a71a405203b9b19b58\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"></p>\n<p>In Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ff924f4d6ece1e451e1ca16ddc2070\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"></p>\n<p>It is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).</p>\n<p><b>Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>Being the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).</p>\n<p>If considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: High Ground Versus Low Ground\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4415213-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-high-ground-versus-low-ground","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155582622","content_text":"Summary\n\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is at a \"choke point\" in the semiconductor supply chain, where the company can benefit from the rigidity of industry capacity expansion to meet demand surge.\nTSMC’s high-ground scenario includes possessing (1) the most advanced high-end technology, (2) the largest and still rising market share, and (3) 15% annual revenue growth from $28 billion capex.\nTSMC’s future low-ground scenario includes (1) declining utilization rates due to fading WFH demand, (2) USD depreciations cutting into EPS, and (3) $28 billion capex cutting into future dividend payments.\nIf considering both the high-ground and low-ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level with a moderate upside for 2021.\nThe real excitement is that TSM may reach $170 by 2022.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt is hardly an exaggeration to call Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(NYSE:TSM)(“TSMC”) the most important company in the world. At the very least, Taiwanese call TSMC their “Protecting Taiwan God Mountain.” Considering it is practically the “choke point” of the $470 billion global semiconductor industry, TSMC is also “potentially the most single point of failure in the semiconductor value chain,”said Jan-Peter Kleinhans, Director of the technology and geopolitics project at Berlin-based think tank,Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.\nTSMC processes the most advanced foundry technology and the largest market share (54%) in a capacity-constrained industry. Obviously, both the company and the stock have benefited significantly from the limitation of capacity expansion to meet the surging demand. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue has grown 25%, while the stock went up over 90%. It appears that their stock has looked beyond the recent financial performance.\nFor that purpose, in this post, I described TSMC's future with a best-case and a worst-case scenario, respectively. TSMC's high-ground is that the structural growth drivers should remain intact if the company can retain the technological advances to create a wider chip platform to support the long-term growth of AI and HPC. Short-term demand should stay strong due to the global chip shortage and possible Intel outsourcing. However, TSMC should also expect the low-ground cases that are mainly from the decreasing utilization rate, weakening USD, higher capital expenditure diluting future dividend payments, the market-wide rising yield effect, and valuation correction. I also mapped out the path of TSMC future share price movements under each scenario. Given a higher likelihood for the high-ground case, TSMC may have a 20% upside in the next 12 months and a 70% upside in the next 24 months.\nTSMC’s High Ground\nThe best-case scenario assumes that TSMC will retain most of the following favorable factors which have contributed to TSMC’s 2020 gain:\nMost advanced high-end technology supports TSMC’s long-term structural growth.Compared amongst peers, TSMC is easily the leader in the arcane Extreme Ultra Violet (ELV) process, where it has half the world’s installed base and 60% of its production.By 2020, TSMC has delivered over 1 billion 7 nm chips, while Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)is still struggling to master its 7nm process. TSMC’s 5nm chips has lower defect rates than it did at this point in its 7nm development. It is already ramping up for 3 nm production by the end of 2022 and has begun working on the 2 nm process(see figure below). The lead in technology is the basis for the structural growth drivers which should remain intact in the next few years, with TSMC being the key enabler of this AI/HPC revolution.\n\nThe market share hits 54% and expects to rise.After reporting record revenue in 2020 based on demand for 5G smartphones, notebooks for teleworking and high-performance computers, TSMC reached a commanding 54% market share with the next competitor, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)at a distant 18%. It is expected that TSMC’s market share dominance may continue as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)remains TSMC’s major customer and will give the Taiwanese firm more business for chips made with its most advanced technology.\nShort-term demand remains robust in the logic semi space.Thanks to WFH-induced global chip shortage,full utilization nearly across all process nodes (especially tight at 7nm, 40nm and 8\") with continued 28nm utilization improvement. The better-than-expected crypto miner ASIC demand helping to fill the gap of 5nm capacity slack due to iPhone order cuts and Apple seasonality.\nTSMC should see more corroboration of growth momentum in HPC, potential Intel CPU orders at 3nm, faster growth in AMD CPU, and Nvidia’s(NASDAQ:NVDA)AI accelerators. Intel outsourcing, if executed, is estimated to add 1% to TSMC’s revenue (Mizuho).\nThe $28 billion capex spending reflects management's confidence about advanced node chips' long-term demand strength and possible 15% compound annual revenue growth in the next 2-3 years.\nTSMC’s Low Ground\nThe low-ground case would include several negative factors on the horizon that the high-ground case does not consider:\nDecreasing utilization rate results from fading WFH demand.TSMC has operated at full capacity for a while; however, weaker-than-expected demand and macro conditions may lead to downside risk for utilization rate forecasts.It is estimated that every 1% decline in the utilization rate could result in 4%-5% downside to the 2021-2022 EPS estimates.\nMedium-term inventory correction is inevitable.Inventory correction from a fading WFH demand is expected in 2H21. Logic semi inventory restocking has lasted for 6-7 quarters by 1Q21. While near-term demand indicators remain solid in the logic semi space, it is likely that there will be some inventory correction after 2022, as suggested by the analyst forecasts (Figure 2). However, JP Morgan predicts that end demand drivers for TSMC are likely to become more structural rather than cyclical in the future, with revenues from HPC likely to crossover those from smartphones by 2023. Consequently, TSMC could fare better during logic semi down cycle and recover faster from the trough vs other tier-2 Foundries (JP Morgan).\n\nAverage selling price (ASP) may go down.TSMC has benefited from a 6% increase in ASP in 2021/22. However, the advantage has been reduced due to pricing competition from Samsung.Mizuho estimated that every 1% fall in ASP could result in 2%-3% downside for our EPS estimates for 2021-22.\nWeakening USD (Strengthening TWD) cuts into EPS.Approximately 99% of TSMC’s sales are denominated in US dollars, but only 15% of its Cost of Goods Sold is in US dollars. Thus, TWD appreciation impacts the company’s gross margin. Based on Mizuho’s estimate,every 1% TWD appreciation could lead to 1%-2% downside to EPS estimates for 2021-22.\n$28 billion Capex may dilute dividend payment. Taiwan Semiconductor's 1Q guidance of 23% year-over-year revenue growth indicates stronger sales of computing processors and automotive chips may offset the seasonality of smartphone chips. The $28 billion full-year capital budget may cut into the company's free cash flow and lead to greater volatility in the dividend.\nFrom Future Financials to Future Stock Prices\nAfter the high-ground and low-ground scenarios are developed, I will explain how to convert forecast financials into future stock prices: If a stock is priced based on its forecast financials at each point in time, I should first find those financial metrics which have traditionally affected the stock prices. A historical relationship between the historical stock prices and these financial metrics is first identified (multiple regression method). Then, the current forecast of these financial metrics at different future time point can be used to generate the future stock price targets. Historically, TSMC's stock prices are known to react to consensus forecasts of revenue, EPS, gross margin, capital expenditure, and free cash flow or dividend, e.g., the relationships in Figures 1A-1B.\n\nKeep in mind that although I used historical data to estimate a historical relationship, it is still a forward-looking process. This is because, at any point in time in history, TSMC's price is estimated by the forward estimates of the five financial metrics at that time. The only assumption I made is that investors used the same (forward-looking) valuation structure to price stocks consistently. Using the relationship and the analysts' next 10-quarter estimates of the five metrics, I was able to compute the future stock prices corresponding to those forward financials.\nHigh-Ground vs. Low-Ground Share Prices\nFor high-ground scenario, I used the normal relationship which assumes TSMC stock price is determined by forecast quarterly revenue, EPS, capital expenditure, and dividend estimates. For low-ground scenario, I included additional negative factors of expected 10-year Treasury yield up moves (from futures contracts), the future USD depreciation (from futures contracts), the forecast higher inventory, and forecast distant revenue growth rates (for lower utilization rates).\n\nIn Figure 2, I showed the high-ground prices in red, the low-ground prices in green and the actual TSMC price in black. Of course, after Q1 2021, only predicted prices are available. If you can go along with my approach, Figure 3 becomes quite telling. First of all, up till today, both predicted prices seem to map the actual stock price quite closely, the tight relationship implicitly validate the power of the models. It is also expected both scenarios behaved very similarly because all the additional (negative) factors included in the low-ground case are more relevant in the next few quarters. This is why the high-ground price explains the realty better until today, as both actual and high-ground prices are around $118 at Q1 2021, while low-ground price is at $81.\n\nIt is more important to see how the future share price plays out under each scenario. Table 1 indicates that the high-ground prices consistently trade at a $40 premium over the low-ground price and eventually to over $80 premium by Q4 2022. Of course, you can assign your own estimates on the chance that each scenario will happen. Due to the short-term nature of all the negative factors, my own guess is biased to the high-ground, fundamental picture of TSMC. Using a 30% low-ground/70% high-ground guess, the resulting TSMC future share price may be relatively flat in 2021 but will take off to $170 by the end of 2022 (Table 1).\nTakeaways\nBeing the largest player in a critically important space, TSMC is at the choke point that gives the company an advantage to benefit from the rigidity of capacity expansion to meet demand surge (high ground). It appears that TSMC share price has already priced in this advantage. But like all other tech stocks, TSM has not priced in the rising yields, fading WFH demand, high valuation, and future competitors’ challenges (low ground).\nIf considering both the high ground and low ground cases, TSM is reasonably valued at the current $110’s level. But share price is expected to have moderate upside for 2021. The real excitement will be in 2022 when the negative low-ground factors are out of the system. TSM may reach $170 by 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362268320,"gmtCreate":1614643158560,"gmtModify":1704773383490,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wasted. didnt go in","listText":"wasted. didnt go in","text":"wasted. didnt go in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362268320","repostId":"1102947994","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102947994","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614611284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102947994?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SOS gains after refuting Hindenburg Research allegations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102947994","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"(March 1) SOS Limited  jumped more than 40% in early trading, reversing a21% dropon Friday after the","content":"<p>(March 1)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">SOS Limited</a> &nbsp;jumped more&nbsp;than&nbsp;40%&nbsp;in early trading, reversing a21% dropon Friday after the company called&nbsp;Hindenburg Research allegations\"distorted, misleading andunsubstantiated.\"</p><p>SOS also claims that some social media accounts of some company board members have been impersonated or disabled for short periods of time, the companysaid in a statement.</p><p>SOS said its's preparing a more detailed response to the \"false innuendo and lies\" that are being spread.</p><p>Recall Feb. 25,SOS announces gross proceeds of $96.7M from exercise of warrants.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d058f590eb6c10a83b0947d31fc2904\" tg-width=\"1085\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SOS gains after refuting Hindenburg Research allegations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSOS gains after refuting Hindenburg Research allegations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 23:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3667563-sos-gains-after-refuting-hindenburg-research-allegations><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 1) SOS Limited  jumped more than 40% in early trading, reversing a21% dropon Friday after the company called Hindenburg Research allegations\"distorted, misleading andunsubstantiated.\"SOS also ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3667563-sos-gains-after-refuting-hindenburg-research-allegations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOS":"SOS Limited"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3667563-sos-gains-after-refuting-hindenburg-research-allegations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1102947994","content_text":"(March 1) SOS Limited  jumped more than 40% in early trading, reversing a21% dropon Friday after the company called Hindenburg Research allegations\"distorted, misleading andunsubstantiated.\"SOS also claims that some social media accounts of some company board members have been impersonated or disabled for short periods of time, the companysaid in a statement.SOS said its's preparing a more detailed response to the \"false innuendo and lies\" that are being spread.Recall Feb. 25,SOS announces gross proceeds of $96.7M from exercise of warrants.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362263340,"gmtCreate":1614643052480,"gmtModify":1704773380900,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news","listText":"Good news","text":"Good news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362263340","repostId":"1189063169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189063169","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1614612017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189063169?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. manufacturing sector at three-year high, cost pressures mounting: ISM","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189063169","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid a","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid an acceleration in new orders, but factories continued to face higher costs for raw materials and other inputs as the pandemic drags on.</p>\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity rebounded to a reading of 60.8 last month from 58.7 in January. That was the highest level since February 2018.</p>\n<p>A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to 58.9 in February.</p>\n<p>The increase was despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has hurt production at automobile plants.</p>\n<p>The survey added to solid January data on consumer spending, building permits, factory production and home sales in suggesting that the economy got off to a strong start in the first quarter, thanks to nearly $900 billion in additional COVID-19 relief money from the government and a drop in new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations.</p>\n<p>But the year-long pandemic has gummed up the supply chain, boosting production costs for manufacturers. The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers jumped to a reading of 86.0, the highest since July 2008, from 82.1 in January.</p>\n<p>This follows data last month showing a surge in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations, and fits in with views that inflation will accelerate in the months ahead. Economists are, however, split on whether the anticipated spike in price pressures will be transitory or not.</p>\n<p>U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with investors betting that extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal policy will boost inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has played down these fears, citing three decades of lower and stable prices.</p>\n<p>There is also ample capacity in the labor market, with at least 19 million people on unemployment benefits. But Americans grounded at home by COVID-19 have accumulated excess savings, which can provide to a powerful tailwind to spending.</p>\n<p>Manufacturing has been driven by strong demand for goods, like electronics and furniture, as 23.2% of the labor force works from home because of the virus. Demand could, however, shift back to services in the summer as more Americans get vaccinated, and slow manufacturing activity from current levels.</p>\n<p>The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 64.8 last month from 61.1 in January. Factories also received more export orders and order backlogs swelled. As a result, factories stepped up hiring last month.</p>\n<p>The survey’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to 54.4, the highest reading since March 2019, from 52.6 in January.</p>\n<p>That offers cautious optimism that employment growth picked up last month after nonfarm payrolls increased by only 49,000 jobs in January. The economy has recovered 12.3 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. manufacturing sector at three-year high, cost pressures mounting: ISM</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. manufacturing sector at three-year high, cost pressures mounting: ISM\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-01 23:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid an acceleration in new orders, but factories continued to face higher costs for raw materials and other inputs as the pandemic drags on.</p>\n<p>The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity rebounded to a reading of 60.8 last month from 58.7 in January. That was the highest level since February 2018.</p>\n<p>A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to 58.9 in February.</p>\n<p>The increase was despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has hurt production at automobile plants.</p>\n<p>The survey added to solid January data on consumer spending, building permits, factory production and home sales in suggesting that the economy got off to a strong start in the first quarter, thanks to nearly $900 billion in additional COVID-19 relief money from the government and a drop in new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations.</p>\n<p>But the year-long pandemic has gummed up the supply chain, boosting production costs for manufacturers. The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers jumped to a reading of 86.0, the highest since July 2008, from 82.1 in January.</p>\n<p>This follows data last month showing a surge in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations, and fits in with views that inflation will accelerate in the months ahead. Economists are, however, split on whether the anticipated spike in price pressures will be transitory or not.</p>\n<p>U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with investors betting that extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal policy will boost inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has played down these fears, citing three decades of lower and stable prices.</p>\n<p>There is also ample capacity in the labor market, with at least 19 million people on unemployment benefits. But Americans grounded at home by COVID-19 have accumulated excess savings, which can provide to a powerful tailwind to spending.</p>\n<p>Manufacturing has been driven by strong demand for goods, like electronics and furniture, as 23.2% of the labor force works from home because of the virus. Demand could, however, shift back to services in the summer as more Americans get vaccinated, and slow manufacturing activity from current levels.</p>\n<p>The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 64.8 last month from 61.1 in January. Factories also received more export orders and order backlogs swelled. As a result, factories stepped up hiring last month.</p>\n<p>The survey’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to 54.4, the highest reading since March 2019, from 52.6 in January.</p>\n<p>That offers cautious optimism that employment growth picked up last month after nonfarm payrolls increased by only 49,000 jobs in January. The economy has recovered 12.3 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189063169","content_text":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid an acceleration in new orders, but factories continued to face higher costs for raw materials and other inputs as the pandemic drags on.\nThe Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its index of national factory activity rebounded to a reading of 60.8 last month from 58.7 in January. That was the highest level since February 2018.\nA reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to 58.9 in February.\nThe increase was despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has hurt production at automobile plants.\nThe survey added to solid January data on consumer spending, building permits, factory production and home sales in suggesting that the economy got off to a strong start in the first quarter, thanks to nearly $900 billion in additional COVID-19 relief money from the government and a drop in new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations.\nBut the year-long pandemic has gummed up the supply chain, boosting production costs for manufacturers. The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers jumped to a reading of 86.0, the highest since July 2008, from 82.1 in January.\nThis follows data last month showing a surge in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations, and fits in with views that inflation will accelerate in the months ahead. Economists are, however, split on whether the anticipated spike in price pressures will be transitory or not.\nU.S. Treasury yields have risen, with investors betting that extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal policy will boost inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has played down these fears, citing three decades of lower and stable prices.\nThere is also ample capacity in the labor market, with at least 19 million people on unemployment benefits. But Americans grounded at home by COVID-19 have accumulated excess savings, which can provide to a powerful tailwind to spending.\nManufacturing has been driven by strong demand for goods, like electronics and furniture, as 23.2% of the labor force works from home because of the virus. Demand could, however, shift back to services in the summer as more Americans get vaccinated, and slow manufacturing activity from current levels.\nThe ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 64.8 last month from 61.1 in January. Factories also received more export orders and order backlogs swelled. As a result, factories stepped up hiring last month.\nThe survey’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to 54.4, the highest reading since March 2019, from 52.6 in January.\nThat offers cautious optimism that employment growth picked up last month after nonfarm payrolls increased by only 49,000 jobs in January. The economy has recovered 12.3 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120510122,"gmtCreate":1624327396666,"gmtModify":1703833579006,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tech","listText":"tech","text":"tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120510122","repostId":"1175629755","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175629755","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624326466,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175629755?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 09:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"周期、科技还香不香？下半年押注哪些板块？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175629755","media":"中国证券报","summary":"又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投","content":"<div>\n<p>又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投资机会前景乐观，看好景气度较好的行业，如新能源汽车、电子等板块。\n对于上半年表现最好的周期板块，基金经理之间出现分歧，有基金机构认为，接下来周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。但也有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>周期、科技还香不香？下半年押注哪些板块？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n周期、科技还香不香？下半年押注哪些板块？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 09:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg><strong>中国证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投资机会前景乐观，看好景气度较好的行业，如新能源汽车、电子等板块。\n对于上半年表现最好的周期板块，基金经理之间出现分歧，有基金机构认为，接下来周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。但也有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uImug2NKXUWY4l6_3fn5Bg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175629755","content_text":"又到了各大券商中期策略密集出炉的时间。还有7个交易日，2021年上半年将收官，基金经理们也开始了下半年的投资布局。\n整体而言，基金机构认为，下半年A股可能维持区间震荡态势，仍对权益市场的长期结构性的投资机会前景乐观，看好景气度较好的行业，如新能源汽车、电子等板块。\n对于上半年表现最好的周期板块，基金经理之间出现分歧，有基金机构认为，接下来周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。但也有基金经理仍然看好，认为在经济复苏持续的背景下，周期板块仍有投资机会。\n或维持区间震荡\n经历了2020年的上涨之后，A股市场从春节后开始震荡调整，截至6月21日，上证综指和深证成指今年以来的涨幅分别只有1.62%和1.18%。上半年通胀预期叠加供需错配，原材料价格持续上行，钢铁、采掘、化工等周期行业领涨。\n即将进入2021年下半程，基金经理开始着手布局下半年。对于下半年的宏观经济，汇丰晋信基金首席宏观及策略师闵良超表示，整体来看，经济可能会放缓，但斜率可控，因基建和消费有较大的空间，A股有可能继续区间震荡。考虑到当前的宏观环境，后续投资应以自下而上的选股为主，关注企业的基本面和盈利能力，优选基本面超预期，或者成长性能够覆盖和消化估值的优质上市公司。\n金鹰基金权益投资部总经理陈立表示，展望下半年以及更长时期，全球经济整体复苏的力度和持续性尚需要观察，全球流动性的收缩预计是有序可控的。长期看，由于全球整体缺乏强有力的经济增长动能，维持较低增速概率大，全球中长期或仍将处于低利率环境。因此，投资者不应过度担忧，随着投资者对宏观流动性因素的认识提升后，市场将重回经济基本面。\n对于A股而言，陈立认为，与大宗商品相关度高、利率敏感的顺周期行业不排除会有回调的可能。不过，当前A股上市公司已经超过4300家，在产业更迭背景下具备长期结构性的投资机会。中长期而言，对权益市场的前景保持乐观。\n看好新能源车、电子等行业\n银华基金指出，当前宏观经济仍在持续恢复，对全年流动性依旧维持谨慎，社融后续表现恐仍偏弱。历史上看，这样的宏观背景不利于估值的扩张，后续市场不易走出单边行情，超额收益主要来自两方面：一是行业景气度能穿越经济周期，且估值与长期成长能力较为匹配的板块。二是精选Alpha，尤其是中小市值中，市场认知尚不充分、估值较低的成长股。\n银华基金建议，在行业配置上，建议均衡配置，一是建议逐步降低周期配置比例，配置银行等低估值行业以及自动化、汽车零部件等受益于全球经济复苏、出口产业链的偏中游制造类行业；二是中期看好受益于行业格局以及景气度仍较好的成长类子行业，如新能车、面板及军工等行业。\n富荣基金表示，短期维持市场整体偏震荡的格局不变，中长期认为业绩成长仍然是核心主线，看好高景气周期的光伏和电动车、电子等，看好低估值银行、部分周期龙头。\n诺安基金建议关注以下三大板块机会：一是科技板块，该板块近期或在行业基本面和政策的持续推动下有所表现；二是新能源板块，美国加码电动车刺激政策强化全球电动车逻辑正在验证，电动车板块行情或可延续；三是高端制造业，数据显示当前企业的资本开支在加大，未来业绩有望得到支撑。\n加仓or减持？对周期股看法不一\n周期板块是今年上半年最亮的星，精准把握周期股行情的基金，也在主动权益类基金中表现暂时领先，比如广发多因子、广发价值领先、宝盈产业优势等重仓周期行业股票的基金。\n对于下半年周期股行情能否持续，基金机构有不同的看法。银华基金认为，虽然当前全球复苏共振，宏观仍处于向上趋势，大宗商品价格或仍有上涨动力，但周期股整体性价比有所下降，建议逐步降低周期配置比例。\n也有基金经理表示，周期股上涨的主要逻辑就在于供需错配，一般情况下，只需要一到两个季度的时间，这种供需错配就会得到纠正，现在已是错配的尾部时间。\n仍然看好周期行情的基金经理也有充分的理由。一位明星基金经理表示：“市场对周期品的分歧，关键是对宏观经济的判断存在分歧”。全球供需不匹配、不均衡的复苏，还会持续一段时间。在经济持续复苏的背景下，周期品尤其是上游资源品的价格上涨，或者说价格在高点维持的时间，可能比市场预期得要长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342957991,"gmtCreate":1618162991713,"gmtModify":1704707040804,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342957991","repostId":"2126053888","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2126053888","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618146000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126053888?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-11 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOCUS-Canada's Telesat takes on Musk and Bezos in space race to provide fast broadband","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126053888","media":"Reuters","summary":"By Steve Scherer   OTTAWA, April 11 (Reuters) - Canada's Telesat is racing to launch a low-earth-orb","content":"<html><body><p>By Steve Scherer</p><p>   OTTAWA, April 11 (Reuters) - Canada's Telesat is racing to launch a low-earth-orbit <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEO\">$(LEO)$</a> satellite constellation to provide high-speed global broadband from space, pitting the satellite communications firm founded in 1969 against two trailblazing billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p>   Musk, the Tesla Inc    CEO who was only a year old when Telesat launched its first satellite, is putting the so-called Starlink LEO into orbit with his company SpaceX, and Amazon.com Inc   , which Bezos founded, is planning a LEO called Project Kuiper. Bezos also owns Blue Origin, which builds rockets.</p><p>   Despite the competition, Dan Goldberg, Telesat's chief executive officer, voices confidence when he calls Telesat's LEO constellation \"the Holy Grail\" for his shareholders - \"a sustainable competitive advantage in global broadband delivery.\"</p><p>   Telesat's LEO has a much lighter price tag than SpaceX and Amazon's, and the company has been in satellite services decades longer. In addition, instead of focusing on the consumer market like SpaceX and Amazon, Telesat seeks deep-pocketed business clients.</p><p>   Goldberg said he was literally losing sleep six years ago when he realized the company's business model was in peril as Netflix    and video streaming took off and fiber optics guaranteed lightning-fast internet connectivity.    </p><p>   Telesat's 15 geostationary <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEO\">$(GEO)$</a> satellites provide services mainly to TV broadcasters, internet service providers and government networks, all of whom were growing increasingly worried about the latency, or time delay, of bouncing signals off orbiters more than 35,000 km (22,200 miles) above earth.    </p><p>   Then in 2015 on a flight home from a Paris industry conference where latency was a constant theme, Goldberg wrote down his initial ideas for a LEO constellation on an <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACDVF\">Air Canada</a> napkin. </p><p>   Those ideas eventually led to Telesat's LEO constellation, dubbed Lightspeed, which will orbit about 35 times closer to earth than GEO satellites, and will provide internet connectivity at a speed akin to fiber optics.</p><p>   Telesat's first launch is planned in early 2023, while there are already some 1,200 of Musk's Starlink satellites in orbit.</p><p>   \"Starlink is going to be in service much sooner ... and that gives SpaceX the opportunity to win customers,\" said Caleb Henry, a senior analyst at Quilty Analytics.</p><p>   Starlink's \"first mover\" advantage is at most 24 months and \"no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>'s going to lock this whole market up in that amount of time,\" Goldberg said.</p><p>   Telesat in 2019 signed a launch deal with Bezos' aerospace company Blue Origin. Discussions are ongoing with three others, said David Wendling, Telesat's chief technical officer. </p><p>   They are Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd   , Europe's ArianeGroup , and Musk's SpaceX, which launches the Starlink satellites. Wendling said a decision would be taken in a matter of months.</p><p>   Telesat aims to launch its first batch of 298 satellites being built by Thales Alenia Space in early 2023, with partial service in higher latitudes later that same year, and full global service in 2024.  </p><p>   'SWEET SPOT'</p><p>   The Lightspeed constellation is estimated to cost half as much as the $10 billion SpaceX and Amazon projects.</p><p>   \"We think we're in the sweet spot,\" Goldberg said. \"When we look at some of these other constellations, we don't get it.\"</p><p>   Analyst Henry said Telesat's focus on business clients is the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>.</p><p>   \"You have two heavyweight players, SpaceX and Amazon, that are already pledging to spend $10 billion on satellite constellations optimized for the consumer market,\" he said. \"If Telesat can spend half that amount creating a high-performance system for businesses, then yeah, they stand to be very competitive.\"</p><p>   Telesat's industry experience may also provide an edge.</p><p>   \"We've worked with many of these customers for decades ... That's going to give us a real advantage,\" Goldberg said.</p><p>   Telesat \"is a satellite operator, has been a satellite operator, and has both the advantage of expertise and experience in that business,\" said Carissa Christensen, chief executive officer of the research firm BryceTech, adding, however, that she sees only two to three LEO constellations surviving. </p><p>   Telesat is nailing down financing - one-third equity and two-thirds debt - and will become publicly traded on the Nasdaq sometime this summer, and it could also list on the Toronto exchange after that. Currently, Canada's Public Sector Pension Investment Board and Loral Space &amp; Communications Inc    are the company's main shareholders.</p><p>   France and Canada's export credit agencies, BPI and EDC respectively, are expected to be the main lenders, Goldberg said. Quebec's provincial government is lending C$400 million ($317 million), and Canada's federal government has promised C$600 million to be a preferred customer. The company also posted C$246 million in net income in 2020.</p><p>   Executing the LEO plan is what keeps Goldberg up at night now, he said.</p><p>   \"When we decided to go down this path, the two richest people in the universe weren't focused on their own LEO constellations.\" </p><p>($1 = 1.2622 Canadian dollars)</p><p> (Reporting by Steve Scherer in Ottawa Editing by Matthew Lewis)</p><p>((steve.scherer@thomsonreuters.com; +1-647-480-7889;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOCUS-Canada's Telesat takes on Musk and Bezos in space race to provide fast broadband</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOCUS-Canada's Telesat takes on Musk and Bezos in space race to provide fast broadband\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-11 21:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>By Steve Scherer</p><p>   OTTAWA, April 11 (Reuters) - Canada's Telesat is racing to launch a low-earth-orbit <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEO\">$(LEO)$</a> satellite constellation to provide high-speed global broadband from space, pitting the satellite communications firm founded in 1969 against two trailblazing billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p>   Musk, the Tesla Inc    CEO who was only a year old when Telesat launched its first satellite, is putting the so-called Starlink LEO into orbit with his company SpaceX, and Amazon.com Inc   , which Bezos founded, is planning a LEO called Project Kuiper. Bezos also owns Blue Origin, which builds rockets.</p><p>   Despite the competition, Dan Goldberg, Telesat's chief executive officer, voices confidence when he calls Telesat's LEO constellation \"the Holy Grail\" for his shareholders - \"a sustainable competitive advantage in global broadband delivery.\"</p><p>   Telesat's LEO has a much lighter price tag than SpaceX and Amazon's, and the company has been in satellite services decades longer. In addition, instead of focusing on the consumer market like SpaceX and Amazon, Telesat seeks deep-pocketed business clients.</p><p>   Goldberg said he was literally losing sleep six years ago when he realized the company's business model was in peril as Netflix    and video streaming took off and fiber optics guaranteed lightning-fast internet connectivity.    </p><p>   Telesat's 15 geostationary <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GEO\">$(GEO)$</a> satellites provide services mainly to TV broadcasters, internet service providers and government networks, all of whom were growing increasingly worried about the latency, or time delay, of bouncing signals off orbiters more than 35,000 km (22,200 miles) above earth.    </p><p>   Then in 2015 on a flight home from a Paris industry conference where latency was a constant theme, Goldberg wrote down his initial ideas for a LEO constellation on an <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACDVF\">Air Canada</a> napkin. </p><p>   Those ideas eventually led to Telesat's LEO constellation, dubbed Lightspeed, which will orbit about 35 times closer to earth than GEO satellites, and will provide internet connectivity at a speed akin to fiber optics.</p><p>   Telesat's first launch is planned in early 2023, while there are already some 1,200 of Musk's Starlink satellites in orbit.</p><p>   \"Starlink is going to be in service much sooner ... and that gives SpaceX the opportunity to win customers,\" said Caleb Henry, a senior analyst at Quilty Analytics.</p><p>   Starlink's \"first mover\" advantage is at most 24 months and \"no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>'s going to lock this whole market up in that amount of time,\" Goldberg said.</p><p>   Telesat in 2019 signed a launch deal with Bezos' aerospace company Blue Origin. Discussions are ongoing with three others, said David Wendling, Telesat's chief technical officer. </p><p>   They are Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd   , Europe's ArianeGroup , and Musk's SpaceX, which launches the Starlink satellites. Wendling said a decision would be taken in a matter of months.</p><p>   Telesat aims to launch its first batch of 298 satellites being built by Thales Alenia Space in early 2023, with partial service in higher latitudes later that same year, and full global service in 2024.  </p><p>   'SWEET SPOT'</p><p>   The Lightspeed constellation is estimated to cost half as much as the $10 billion SpaceX and Amazon projects.</p><p>   \"We think we're in the sweet spot,\" Goldberg said. \"When we look at some of these other constellations, we don't get it.\"</p><p>   Analyst Henry said Telesat's focus on business clients is the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>.</p><p>   \"You have two heavyweight players, SpaceX and Amazon, that are already pledging to spend $10 billion on satellite constellations optimized for the consumer market,\" he said. \"If Telesat can spend half that amount creating a high-performance system for businesses, then yeah, they stand to be very competitive.\"</p><p>   Telesat's industry experience may also provide an edge.</p><p>   \"We've worked with many of these customers for decades ... That's going to give us a real advantage,\" Goldberg said.</p><p>   Telesat \"is a satellite operator, has been a satellite operator, and has both the advantage of expertise and experience in that business,\" said Carissa Christensen, chief executive officer of the research firm BryceTech, adding, however, that she sees only two to three LEO constellations surviving. </p><p>   Telesat is nailing down financing - one-third equity and two-thirds debt - and will become publicly traded on the Nasdaq sometime this summer, and it could also list on the Toronto exchange after that. Currently, Canada's Public Sector Pension Investment Board and Loral Space &amp; Communications Inc    are the company's main shareholders.</p><p>   France and Canada's export credit agencies, BPI and EDC respectively, are expected to be the main lenders, Goldberg said. Quebec's provincial government is lending C$400 million ($317 million), and Canada's federal government has promised C$600 million to be a preferred customer. The company also posted C$246 million in net income in 2020.</p><p>   Executing the LEO plan is what keeps Goldberg up at night now, he said.</p><p>   \"When we decided to go down this path, the two richest people in the universe weren't focused on their own LEO constellations.\" </p><p>($1 = 1.2622 Canadian dollars)</p><p> (Reporting by Steve Scherer in Ottawa Editing by Matthew Lewis)</p><p>((steve.scherer@thomsonreuters.com; +1-647-480-7889;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊","LORL":"劳拉空间通信","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2126053888","content_text":"By Steve Scherer   OTTAWA, April 11 (Reuters) - Canada's Telesat is racing to launch a low-earth-orbit $(LEO)$ satellite constellation to provide high-speed global broadband from space, pitting the satellite communications firm founded in 1969 against two trailblazing billionaires, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.   Musk, the Tesla Inc    CEO who was only a year old when Telesat launched its first satellite, is putting the so-called Starlink LEO into orbit with his company SpaceX, and Amazon.com Inc   , which Bezos founded, is planning a LEO called Project Kuiper. Bezos also owns Blue Origin, which builds rockets.   Despite the competition, Dan Goldberg, Telesat's chief executive officer, voices confidence when he calls Telesat's LEO constellation \"the Holy Grail\" for his shareholders - \"a sustainable competitive advantage in global broadband delivery.\"   Telesat's LEO has a much lighter price tag than SpaceX and Amazon's, and the company has been in satellite services decades longer. In addition, instead of focusing on the consumer market like SpaceX and Amazon, Telesat seeks deep-pocketed business clients.   Goldberg said he was literally losing sleep six years ago when he realized the company's business model was in peril as Netflix    and video streaming took off and fiber optics guaranteed lightning-fast internet connectivity.       Telesat's 15 geostationary $(GEO)$ satellites provide services mainly to TV broadcasters, internet service providers and government networks, all of whom were growing increasingly worried about the latency, or time delay, of bouncing signals off orbiters more than 35,000 km (22,200 miles) above earth.       Then in 2015 on a flight home from a Paris industry conference where latency was a constant theme, Goldberg wrote down his initial ideas for a LEO constellation on an Air Canada napkin.    Those ideas eventually led to Telesat's LEO constellation, dubbed Lightspeed, which will orbit about 35 times closer to earth than GEO satellites, and will provide internet connectivity at a speed akin to fiber optics.   Telesat's first launch is planned in early 2023, while there are already some 1,200 of Musk's Starlink satellites in orbit.   \"Starlink is going to be in service much sooner ... and that gives SpaceX the opportunity to win customers,\" said Caleb Henry, a senior analyst at Quilty Analytics.   Starlink's \"first mover\" advantage is at most 24 months and \"no one's going to lock this whole market up in that amount of time,\" Goldberg said.   Telesat in 2019 signed a launch deal with Bezos' aerospace company Blue Origin. Discussions are ongoing with three others, said David Wendling, Telesat's chief technical officer.    They are Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd   , Europe's ArianeGroup , and Musk's SpaceX, which launches the Starlink satellites. Wendling said a decision would be taken in a matter of months.   Telesat aims to launch its first batch of 298 satellites being built by Thales Alenia Space in early 2023, with partial service in higher latitudes later that same year, and full global service in 2024.     'SWEET SPOT'   The Lightspeed constellation is estimated to cost half as much as the $10 billion SpaceX and Amazon projects.   \"We think we're in the sweet spot,\" Goldberg said. \"When we look at some of these other constellations, we don't get it.\"   Analyst Henry said Telesat's focus on business clients is the right one.   \"You have two heavyweight players, SpaceX and Amazon, that are already pledging to spend $10 billion on satellite constellations optimized for the consumer market,\" he said. \"If Telesat can spend half that amount creating a high-performance system for businesses, then yeah, they stand to be very competitive.\"   Telesat's industry experience may also provide an edge.   \"We've worked with many of these customers for decades ... That's going to give us a real advantage,\" Goldberg said.   Telesat \"is a satellite operator, has been a satellite operator, and has both the advantage of expertise and experience in that business,\" said Carissa Christensen, chief executive officer of the research firm BryceTech, adding, however, that she sees only two to three LEO constellations surviving.    Telesat is nailing down financing - one-third equity and two-thirds debt - and will become publicly traded on the Nasdaq sometime this summer, and it could also list on the Toronto exchange after that. Currently, Canada's Public Sector Pension Investment Board and Loral Space & Communications Inc    are the company's main shareholders.   France and Canada's export credit agencies, BPI and EDC respectively, are expected to be the main lenders, Goldberg said. Quebec's provincial government is lending C$400 million ($317 million), and Canada's federal government has promised C$600 million to be a preferred customer. The company also posted C$246 million in net income in 2020.   Executing the LEO plan is what keeps Goldberg up at night now, he said.   \"When we decided to go down this path, the two richest people in the universe weren't focused on their own LEO constellations.\" ($1 = 1.2622 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Steve Scherer in Ottawa Editing by Matthew Lewis)((steve.scherer@thomsonreuters.com; +1-647-480-7889;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323663759,"gmtCreate":1615338645371,"gmtModify":1704781323258,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chiong ah","listText":"Chiong ah","text":"Chiong ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323663759","repostId":"1146881306","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360535516,"gmtCreate":1613954783135,"gmtModify":1704886073450,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>Good price to long now","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>Good price to long now","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$Good price to long now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360535516","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351424027,"gmtCreate":1616628657569,"gmtModify":1704796552876,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wat will happen","listText":"wat will happen","text":"wat will happen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/351424027","repostId":"1175341082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175341082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616599060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175341082?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-24 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Sees ‘Highly Desirable’ Gains Behind Modest Fed Jobs View","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175341082","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Fed chair plays down higher yields, pins on brighter outlook\nSees inflation advancing this year but ","content":"<ul>\n <li>Fed chair plays down higher yields, pins on brighter outlook</li>\n <li>Sees inflation advancing this year but it will be temporary</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a265594f84aeaca591808023e85b018\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>Jerome Powell Photographer: Susan Walsh/AP/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s relatively muted forecast for lower unemployment this year -- despite very strong expected growth -- was actually disguising “highly desirable” labor market gains.</p>\n<p>“We see participation expanding,” he told the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, referring to the process where people who’re not currently being counted in the jobless rate reenter the labor force. “That holds the unemployment rate up -- it is a highly desirable outcome.”</p>\n<p>In quarterly forecasts published last week, officials saw unemployment declining to 4.5% by year end from 6.2% in February.</p>\n<p><b>Growth, Inflation</b></p>\n<p>They also projected economic growth of 6.5% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace since 1983 when measured fourth quarter over the same three months a year earlier and would follow a 2.4% contraction in 2020 as a result of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Inflation, as calculated by the personal consumption expenditures price index, is seen in the Fed’s median forecast as ending 2021 at 2.4% but slowing to 2% next year. It clocked in at 1.5% in January.</p>\n<p>Powell said prices would probably rise due to so-called base effects as very low readings from last year fall out of the calculation, along with some pressure from pent-up spending and supply-chain bottlenecks.</p>\n<p>But this shift is expected to be temporary and the long period of low inflation in the U.S. would keep price pressures in check.</p>\n<p>“Long term we think the inflation dynamics we have seen for a quarter century are still intact,” he said. Powell added that if this prediction provided not to be the case, the Fed has tools to tackle unwanted inflation and would use them.</p>\n<p>Powell appeared before the committee along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as part of congressional oversight of the government’s response to the pandemic. Both policy makers&nbsp;testified&nbsp;before the House Financial Services panel on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Fed officials held interest rates near zero last week and said they’d maintain their massive bond-buying campaign at a $120 billion monthly pace until “substantial further progress” had been achieved on their goals for employment and inflation.</p>\n<p>Long-term interest rates have shot higher this year on expectations of faster economic growth, higher inflation and increased supply of Treasury debt from the government’s stimulus programs.</p>\n<p>Asked about the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, Powell said this reflected a brighter economic outlook as vaccination roll-out accelerates and was not cause for concern.</p>\n<p>“That has been an orderly process. I would be concerned if it had not been an orderly process,” he said.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Sees ‘Highly Desirable’ Gains Behind Modest Fed Jobs View</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Sees ‘Highly Desirable’ Gains Behind Modest Fed Jobs View\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 23:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/powell-says-modest-forecast-for-unemployment-masks-good-news?srnd=markets-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fed chair plays down higher yields, pins on brighter outlook\nSees inflation advancing this year but it will be temporary\n\nJerome Powell Photographer: Susan Walsh/AP/Bloomberg\nFederal Reserve Chair ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/powell-says-modest-forecast-for-unemployment-masks-good-news?srnd=markets-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/powell-says-modest-forecast-for-unemployment-masks-good-news?srnd=markets-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175341082","content_text":"Fed chair plays down higher yields, pins on brighter outlook\nSees inflation advancing this year but it will be temporary\n\nJerome Powell Photographer: Susan Walsh/AP/Bloomberg\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s relatively muted forecast for lower unemployment this year -- despite very strong expected growth -- was actually disguising “highly desirable” labor market gains.\n“We see participation expanding,” he told the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, referring to the process where people who’re not currently being counted in the jobless rate reenter the labor force. “That holds the unemployment rate up -- it is a highly desirable outcome.”\nIn quarterly forecasts published last week, officials saw unemployment declining to 4.5% by year end from 6.2% in February.\nGrowth, Inflation\nThey also projected economic growth of 6.5% in 2021. That would be the fastest pace since 1983 when measured fourth quarter over the same three months a year earlier and would follow a 2.4% contraction in 2020 as a result of the pandemic.\nInflation, as calculated by the personal consumption expenditures price index, is seen in the Fed’s median forecast as ending 2021 at 2.4% but slowing to 2% next year. It clocked in at 1.5% in January.\nPowell said prices would probably rise due to so-called base effects as very low readings from last year fall out of the calculation, along with some pressure from pent-up spending and supply-chain bottlenecks.\nBut this shift is expected to be temporary and the long period of low inflation in the U.S. would keep price pressures in check.\n“Long term we think the inflation dynamics we have seen for a quarter century are still intact,” he said. Powell added that if this prediction provided not to be the case, the Fed has tools to tackle unwanted inflation and would use them.\nPowell appeared before the committee along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as part of congressional oversight of the government’s response to the pandemic. Both policy makers testified before the House Financial Services panel on Tuesday.\nFed officials held interest rates near zero last week and said they’d maintain their massive bond-buying campaign at a $120 billion monthly pace until “substantial further progress” had been achieved on their goals for employment and inflation.\nLong-term interest rates have shot higher this year on expectations of faster economic growth, higher inflation and increased supply of Treasury debt from the government’s stimulus programs.\nAsked about the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, Powell said this reflected a brighter economic outlook as vaccination roll-out accelerates and was not cause for concern.\n“That has been an orderly process. I would be concerned if it had not been an orderly process,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359597685,"gmtCreate":1616410677047,"gmtModify":1704793665362,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"STI so far so good","listText":"STI so far so good","text":"STI so far so good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359597685","repostId":"1163016573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359965652,"gmtCreate":1616323606976,"gmtModify":1704792907283,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tech stocks unpredictable&nbsp;","listText":"Tech stocks unpredictable&nbsp;","text":"Tech stocks unpredictable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359965652","repostId":"1136440314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136440314","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616165231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136440314?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook rose more than 4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136440314","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(March 19) Facebook rose more than 4%.Facebook is a strong positive outlier in the S&P 500 today,up ","content":"<p>(March 19)&nbsp;Facebook rose more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fea58a0f3c9d80d1b9267044a776f39d\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p><p>Facebook&nbsp;is a strong positive outlier in the S&amp;P 500 today,up 4.08%&nbsp;and gaining (and bouncing back froma slightly decline yesterday) after CEO Mark Zuckerberg looked to change his tune on upcoming privacy changes from Apple.</p><p>Zuckerberg had increasingly taken an adversarial stance against the big-tech rival, but in a new discussion on audio platform Clubhouse, he said thatFacebook may be better off this way.</p><p>\"I think the reality is that I'm confident that we're gonna be able to manage through that situation,\" Zuckerberg said. \"And we'll be in a good position. I think it's possible that we may even be in a stronger position.\"</p><p>That marks a sharp reversal from last summer, when Facebook said Apple's change to unique device IDs couldcut revenues in half for its Audience Network in-app ad business, and Facebook chief Mark Zuckerbergsingled Apple out for criticism in a companywide meeting.</p><p>Now, Zuckerberg is saying Apple's changes might encourage sellers to use Facebook's commerce products directly.</p><p>\"Apple's changes encourage more businesses to conduct commerce on our platforms, by making it harder for them to basically use their data in order to find the customers that would want to use their products outside of our platforms,\" he said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook rose more than 4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook rose more than 4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-19 22:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 19)&nbsp;Facebook rose more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fea58a0f3c9d80d1b9267044a776f39d\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p><p>Facebook&nbsp;is a strong positive outlier in the S&amp;P 500 today,up 4.08%&nbsp;and gaining (and bouncing back froma slightly decline yesterday) after CEO Mark Zuckerberg looked to change his tune on upcoming privacy changes from Apple.</p><p>Zuckerberg had increasingly taken an adversarial stance against the big-tech rival, but in a new discussion on audio platform Clubhouse, he said thatFacebook may be better off this way.</p><p>\"I think the reality is that I'm confident that we're gonna be able to manage through that situation,\" Zuckerberg said. \"And we'll be in a good position. I think it's possible that we may even be in a stronger position.\"</p><p>That marks a sharp reversal from last summer, when Facebook said Apple's change to unique device IDs couldcut revenues in half for its Audience Network in-app ad business, and Facebook chief Mark Zuckerbergsingled Apple out for criticism in a companywide meeting.</p><p>Now, Zuckerberg is saying Apple's changes might encourage sellers to use Facebook's commerce products directly.</p><p>\"Apple's changes encourage more businesses to conduct commerce on our platforms, by making it harder for them to basically use their data in order to find the customers that would want to use their products outside of our platforms,\" he said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136440314","content_text":"(March 19) Facebook rose more than 4%.Facebook is a strong positive outlier in the S&P 500 today,up 4.08% and gaining (and bouncing back froma slightly decline yesterday) after CEO Mark Zuckerberg looked to change his tune on upcoming privacy changes from Apple.Zuckerberg had increasingly taken an adversarial stance against the big-tech rival, but in a new discussion on audio platform Clubhouse, he said thatFacebook may be better off this way.\"I think the reality is that I'm confident that we're gonna be able to manage through that situation,\" Zuckerberg said. \"And we'll be in a good position. I think it's possible that we may even be in a stronger position.\"That marks a sharp reversal from last summer, when Facebook said Apple's change to unique device IDs couldcut revenues in half for its Audience Network in-app ad business, and Facebook chief Mark Zuckerbergsingled Apple out for criticism in a companywide meeting.Now, Zuckerberg is saying Apple's changes might encourage sellers to use Facebook's commerce products directly.\"Apple's changes encourage more businesses to conduct commerce on our platforms, by making it harder for them to basically use their data in order to find the customers that would want to use their products outside of our platforms,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359962237,"gmtCreate":1616323513729,"gmtModify":1704792906134,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep it up to the moon","listText":"Keep it up to the moon","text":"Keep it up to the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359962237","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359962072,"gmtCreate":1616323471796,"gmtModify":1704792905633,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will market still fly as usual?","listText":"Will market still fly as usual?","text":"Will market still fly as usual?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/359962072","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117450855?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p>\n<p>In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p>\n<p>“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p>\n<p>Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p>\n<p>The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p>\n<p>With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p>\n<p>In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p>\n<p>“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p>\n<p>“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p>\n<p>The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p>\n<p>Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p>\n<p>Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 23:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350406392,"gmtCreate":1616245142716,"gmtModify":1704792440527,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"stay stronge","listText":"stay stronge","text":"stay stronge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350406392","repostId":"1126157111","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321663974,"gmtCreate":1615429702498,"gmtModify":1704782658899,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EVs are on cooling down stage.","listText":"EVs are on cooling down stage.","text":"EVs are on cooling down stage.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321663974","repostId":"2118460618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118460618","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1615423210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118460618?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV startup Canoo plans to roll out American-built, pod-like electric pickup in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118460618","media":"Reuters","summary":"DETROIT, March 10  - Electric vehicle startup Canoo Inc on Wednesday said it will introduce an American-built pod-like electric pickup truck in 2023, following in the footsteps of several rivals also entering the most popular segment of the U.S. automotive market.Canoo Executive Chairman Tony Aquila revealed the timing for the truck ahead of an Automobility LA event on Thursday. He said the Los Angeles-based company would begin taking pre-orders in the second quarter of 2021.Aquila told Reuters ","content":"<p>DETROIT, March 10 (Reuters) - Electric vehicle startup Canoo Inc on Wednesday said it will introduce an American-built pod-like electric pickup truck in 2023, following in the footsteps of several rivals also entering the most popular segment of the U.S. automotive market.</p>\n<p>Canoo Executive Chairman Tony Aquila revealed the timing for the truck ahead of an Automobility LA event on Thursday. He said the Los Angeles-based company would begin taking pre-orders in the second quarter of 2021.</p>\n<p>Aquila told Reuters he was aiming to launch the rounded, snub-nosed truck in the first quarter of 2023, and Canoo will build the vehicle in a U.S. microfactory it intends to open.</p>\n<p>\"This is like no truck you've ever seen,\" he said in an interview. \"It's the size of a Ford Ranger, can take the payload of a full-sized pickup and (has) the turning radius of a Prius.\"</p>\n<p>Aquila told Reuters in December that Canoo, which subsequently went public through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company, intended to introduce a pickup.</p>\n<p>Pickups are the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. new-vehicle market, with Ford Motor Co , General Motors Co and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>'s Ram brand dominating the gasoline-powered segment and generating large portions of those companies' profits.</p>\n<p>While GM and Ford plan to introduce electric pickups with the intention of continuing their dominance, Canoo, Tesla</p>\n<p>with its Cybertruck, and others believe they can carve out a piece of the market as EV sales increase.</p>\n<p>GM, Tesla, and startups Rivian and Lordstown Motors Corp&nbsp;all plan to introduce electric pickups later this year, with Ford following in mid-2022.</p>\n<p>Forecasting firm AutoForecast Solutions estimates electric pickups will make up just over 1% of North American pickup production in 2022, rising to 5.7% in 2028.</p>\n<p>Canoo's pickup will join a lineup that includes the pod-like, seven-seat canoo coming in the second quarter of 2022, a delivery vehicle later that year and a sport sedan in 2025.</p>\n<p>The pickup will be aimed at both consumer and commercial customers and has the potential to be a high-volume vehicle, creating the need for a small-scale, highly automated microfactory, Aquila said.</p>\n<p>Canoo is negotiating with states about a potential site and the company will still use a contract manufacturer to build its lower-volume vehicles, he said.</p>\n<p>Canoo has developed a \"skateboard\" - a low-rise platform that bundles batteries and electric motors with such chassis components as steering, brakes and wheels - on which a variety of vehicle body types can be built.</p>\n<p>Canoo said its pickup will have up to 600 horsepower and an electric driving range of more than 200 miles (320 km). Aquila expects the driving range to be 300 miles or higher by the time the truck actually launches.</p>\n<p>The pickup includes a six-foot (2m) truck bed that can extend to a fully enclosed eight feet. It also features front cargo storage area and a fold-down worktable with electrical outlets, flip-down side tables and a hidden step offering storage and access to the truck bed.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit Editing by Chris Reese and Lincoln Feast)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV startup Canoo plans to roll out American-built, pod-like electric pickup in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV startup Canoo plans to roll out American-built, pod-like electric pickup in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 08:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DETROIT, March 10 (Reuters) - Electric vehicle startup Canoo Inc on Wednesday said it will introduce an American-built pod-like electric pickup truck in 2023, following in the footsteps of several rivals also entering the most popular segment of the U.S. automotive market.</p>\n<p>Canoo Executive Chairman Tony Aquila revealed the timing for the truck ahead of an Automobility LA event on Thursday. He said the Los Angeles-based company would begin taking pre-orders in the second quarter of 2021.</p>\n<p>Aquila told Reuters he was aiming to launch the rounded, snub-nosed truck in the first quarter of 2023, and Canoo will build the vehicle in a U.S. microfactory it intends to open.</p>\n<p>\"This is like no truck you've ever seen,\" he said in an interview. \"It's the size of a Ford Ranger, can take the payload of a full-sized pickup and (has) the turning radius of a Prius.\"</p>\n<p>Aquila told Reuters in December that Canoo, which subsequently went public through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company, intended to introduce a pickup.</p>\n<p>Pickups are the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. new-vehicle market, with Ford Motor Co , General Motors Co and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>'s Ram brand dominating the gasoline-powered segment and generating large portions of those companies' profits.</p>\n<p>While GM and Ford plan to introduce electric pickups with the intention of continuing their dominance, Canoo, Tesla</p>\n<p>with its Cybertruck, and others believe they can carve out a piece of the market as EV sales increase.</p>\n<p>GM, Tesla, and startups Rivian and Lordstown Motors Corp&nbsp;all plan to introduce electric pickups later this year, with Ford following in mid-2022.</p>\n<p>Forecasting firm AutoForecast Solutions estimates electric pickups will make up just over 1% of North American pickup production in 2022, rising to 5.7% in 2028.</p>\n<p>Canoo's pickup will join a lineup that includes the pod-like, seven-seat canoo coming in the second quarter of 2022, a delivery vehicle later that year and a sport sedan in 2025.</p>\n<p>The pickup will be aimed at both consumer and commercial customers and has the potential to be a high-volume vehicle, creating the need for a small-scale, highly automated microfactory, Aquila said.</p>\n<p>Canoo is negotiating with states about a potential site and the company will still use a contract manufacturer to build its lower-volume vehicles, he said.</p>\n<p>Canoo has developed a \"skateboard\" - a low-rise platform that bundles batteries and electric motors with such chassis components as steering, brakes and wheels - on which a variety of vehicle body types can be built.</p>\n<p>Canoo said its pickup will have up to 600 horsepower and an electric driving range of more than 200 miles (320 km). Aquila expects the driving range to be 300 miles or higher by the time the truck actually launches.</p>\n<p>The pickup includes a six-foot (2m) truck bed that can extend to a fully enclosed eight feet. It also features front cargo storage area and a fold-down worktable with electrical outlets, flip-down side tables and a hidden step offering storage and access to the truck bed.</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit Editing by Chris Reese and Lincoln Feast)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车","GOEV":"Canoo Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118460618","content_text":"DETROIT, March 10 (Reuters) - Electric vehicle startup Canoo Inc on Wednesday said it will introduce an American-built pod-like electric pickup truck in 2023, following in the footsteps of several rivals also entering the most popular segment of the U.S. automotive market.\nCanoo Executive Chairman Tony Aquila revealed the timing for the truck ahead of an Automobility LA event on Thursday. He said the Los Angeles-based company would begin taking pre-orders in the second quarter of 2021.\nAquila told Reuters he was aiming to launch the rounded, snub-nosed truck in the first quarter of 2023, and Canoo will build the vehicle in a U.S. microfactory it intends to open.\n\"This is like no truck you've ever seen,\" he said in an interview. \"It's the size of a Ford Ranger, can take the payload of a full-sized pickup and (has) the turning radius of a Prius.\"\nAquila told Reuters in December that Canoo, which subsequently went public through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company, intended to introduce a pickup.\nPickups are the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. new-vehicle market, with Ford Motor Co , General Motors Co and Stellantis NV's Ram brand dominating the gasoline-powered segment and generating large portions of those companies' profits.\nWhile GM and Ford plan to introduce electric pickups with the intention of continuing their dominance, Canoo, Tesla\nwith its Cybertruck, and others believe they can carve out a piece of the market as EV sales increase.\nGM, Tesla, and startups Rivian and Lordstown Motors Corp all plan to introduce electric pickups later this year, with Ford following in mid-2022.\nForecasting firm AutoForecast Solutions estimates electric pickups will make up just over 1% of North American pickup production in 2022, rising to 5.7% in 2028.\nCanoo's pickup will join a lineup that includes the pod-like, seven-seat canoo coming in the second quarter of 2022, a delivery vehicle later that year and a sport sedan in 2025.\nThe pickup will be aimed at both consumer and commercial customers and has the potential to be a high-volume vehicle, creating the need for a small-scale, highly automated microfactory, Aquila said.\nCanoo is negotiating with states about a potential site and the company will still use a contract manufacturer to build its lower-volume vehicles, he said.\nCanoo has developed a \"skateboard\" - a low-rise platform that bundles batteries and electric motors with such chassis components as steering, brakes and wheels - on which a variety of vehicle body types can be built.\nCanoo said its pickup will have up to 600 horsepower and an electric driving range of more than 200 miles (320 km). Aquila expects the driving range to be 300 miles or higher by the time the truck actually launches.\nThe pickup includes a six-foot (2m) truck bed that can extend to a fully enclosed eight feet. It also features front cargo storage area and a fold-down worktable with electrical outlets, flip-down side tables and a hidden step offering storage and access to the truck bed.\n(Reporting by Ben Klayman in Detroit Editing by Chris Reese and Lincoln Feast)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320652467,"gmtCreate":1615098863359,"gmtModify":1704778661914,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"too many Jiucai inside.&nbsp;","listText":"too many Jiucai inside.&nbsp;","text":"too many Jiucai inside.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320652467","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169596583?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360531560,"gmtCreate":1613954189650,"gmtModify":1704886067552,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360531560","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143100356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613792715,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143100356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143100356","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.</p><p>Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.</p><p>Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.</p><p>All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…</p><p><b>NIO Inc.NIO</b></p><p>Every major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.</p><p>NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.</p><p>Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.</p><p>With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.</p><p>NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6233d1784a5cb7db62b437f7632a3f\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.</p><p>At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.</p><p>NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.</p><p>Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.</p><p><b>CrowdStrikeCRWD</b></p><p>CrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.</p><p>Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.</p><p>CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f684cfbac7ba46e2cf8ab6e063461a2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.</p><p>The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.</p><p>CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”</p><p>Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.</p><p>In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.</p><p>CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.</p><p><b>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</b>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143100356","content_text":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…NIO Inc.NIOEvery major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.CrowdStrikeCRWDCrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120537564,"gmtCreate":1624327375458,"gmtModify":1703833578845,"author":{"id":"3561252728435238","authorId":"3561252728435238","name":"NiuBili","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561252728435238","authorIdStr":"3561252728435238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120537564","repostId":"1182298025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182298025","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"预判经济形势，解读公共政策，提供及时信息，推送专业报告。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"泽平宏观","id":"49","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990"},"pubTimestamp":1624326846,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182298025?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 09:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储议息宣告全球流动性拐点到来？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182298025","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步","content":"<p><b>当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。</b>年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。</p>\n<p><b>在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。</b>此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。<b>美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响<b>当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。</b>另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得<b>货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？</b></p>\n<p><b>中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。</b>2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。</p>\n<p><b>经济预期方面，</b>此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，</b>美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，</b>此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。</p>\n<p><b>货币政策目标方面，</b>美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5facc653e3750d620ae5403645d79aee\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。</b>利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。</p>\n<p><b>政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。</b>点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0906da13791f02a15ffb0be7fa22075\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8bed8bbe42a034df262883e74c1ed\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费</b></p>\n<p><b>消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。</b>美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。</p>\n<p><b>投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。</p>\n<p><b>生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。</p>\n<p><b>景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。</b>美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。</b>从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。</b>美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。</p>\n<p><b>疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。</b>美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。</p>\n<p><b>3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来</b></p>\n<p><b>当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，<b>因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来</b>。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而<b>公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p>3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓</p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。</b>美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。</p>\n<p><b>通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。</b>美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。</p>\n<p>随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。</p>\n<p><b>赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。</b>美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。</p>\n<p>一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。</p>\n<p>3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径</p>\n<p>我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</p>\n<p>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</p>\n<p>美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3ef0b2a0c1b75211e1304a93310251\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。</p>\n<p>另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</p>\n<p><b>4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响</b></p>\n<p>4.1 美元周期的传导原理</p>\n<p>美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。</p>\n<p>从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。</p>\n<p>从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。</p>\n<p>4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道</p>\n<p><b>预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。</b>目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。</p>\n<p><b>随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。</b>美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。</p>\n<p><b>综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b>根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59767fe1a8803a527a3021ce6c3f46c4\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击</p>\n<p><b>本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。</b>近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。</p>\n<p>2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。</p>\n<p>自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。</p>\n<p>随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08ff58d709265de8bf8dec48bf6ed7\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674ef08637165a1a54a869832d863d42\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc04b78808e871f905a63fee14ad358\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险</p>\n<p><b>中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。</b>人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。</p>\n<p>我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5abc33895662274d8a43b24bd5cd97\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1559601c05152d2a6403a2ac64984d\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"449\" 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储议息宣告全球流动性拐点到来？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 09:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。</b>年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。</p>\n<p><b>在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。</b>此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。<b>美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响<b>当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。</b>另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得<b>货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b></p>\n<p><b>随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？</b></p>\n<p><b>中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。</b>2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。</p>\n<p><b>经济预期方面，</b>此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，</b>美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，</b>此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。</p>\n<p><b>货币政策目标方面，</b>美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5facc653e3750d620ae5403645d79aee\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。</b>利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。</p>\n<p><b>政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。</b>点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0906da13791f02a15ffb0be7fa22075\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d8bed8bbe42a034df262883e74c1ed\" tg-width=\"649\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费</b></p>\n<p><b>消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。</b>美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。</p>\n<p><b>投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。</p>\n<p><b>生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。</b>2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。</p>\n<p><b>景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。</b>美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。</p>\n<p><b>就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。</b>从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。</p>\n<p><b>通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。</b>美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。</p>\n<p><b>疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。</b>美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。</p>\n<p><b>3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来</b></p>\n<p><b>当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</b></p>\n<p>但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，<b>因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来</b>。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而<b>公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</b></p>\n<p>3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓</p>\n<p><b>美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。</b>美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。</p>\n<p><b>通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。</b>美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。</p>\n<p>随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。</p>\n<p><b>赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。</b>美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。</p>\n<p>一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。</p>\n<p>3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径</p>\n<p>我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。</p>\n<p>我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。</p>\n<p>美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3ef0b2a0c1b75211e1304a93310251\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。</p>\n<p>另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。</p>\n<p><b>4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响</b></p>\n<p>4.1 美元周期的传导原理</p>\n<p>美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。</p>\n<p>从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。</p>\n<p>从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。</p>\n<p>4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道</p>\n<p><b>预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。</b>目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。</p>\n<p><b>随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。</b>美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。</p>\n<p><b>综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。</b>根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59767fe1a8803a527a3021ce6c3f46c4\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击</p>\n<p><b>本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。</b>近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。</p>\n<p>2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。</p>\n<p>自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。</p>\n<p>随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d08ff58d709265de8bf8dec48bf6ed7\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674ef08637165a1a54a869832d863d42\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc04b78808e871f905a63fee14ad358\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险</p>\n<p><b>中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。</b>人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。</p>\n<p>我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5abc33895662274d8a43b24bd5cd97\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1559601c05152d2a6403a2ac64984d\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182298025","content_text":"当前阶段美国经济状态：经济复苏深化，通胀已然回归。年内疫苗接种率逐步提升，叠加财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国经济复苏深化：制造业稳步上行、房地产延续超景气周期、服务业反弹超预期。当前美国经济修复的重心逐步扩展到服务消费领域。而与此同时，石油、食品消费等领域价格上涨拉动美国通胀快速上行，美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素都对美国物价水平形成持续性冲击。\n在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。此次6月FOMC议息会议，美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，但对通胀容忍度表态明显改观。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，就业形势更好、通胀形势更严峻，影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策或以较快速度转向谨慎区间。另一方面，本轮货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况，2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使财政赤字率激增。公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n随着美国货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道，未来美债收益率长期看有上升空间。综合考虑到美联储货币政策预期收紧、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。\n随着美国加息周期临近，新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击，外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性显现，会否在土耳其、阿根廷等脆弱环节爆发金融危机？\n中国应该是全球最有条件抵抗这轮美元周期冲击的，拥有相对强劲的基本面，以及提前一年的货币政策正常化。但最终能否幸免？短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率升值压力边际缓解。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。但随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，仍需警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险暴露问题。\n1、FOMC会议对经济和就业恢复信心抬升，上调通胀预期\n美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，上调通胀预期。2021年GDP预期中位数为7.0%（前值6.5%）、失业率预期中位数为4.5%（前值4.5%）、PCE预期中位数为3.4%（前值2.4%）、核心PCE预期中位数为3.0%（前值2.2%）、联邦基金利率2023年预期中位数为0.6%（前值0.1%）。\n经济预期方面，此次FOMC会议首次肯定了疫苗接种在当下和未来的积极作用，预计今年和明年的经济恢复均有强劲表现。\n就业方面，美联储认为工作缺口仍然存在，就业水平正在复苏，失业率需要更多角度的数据及更久的时间去验证，鲍威尔在记者会时提到对中期就业修复有信心，劳动力市场正在向低失业、高参与率、高薪资的方向前进。\n通胀方面，此次会议中美联储首次承认通胀持续上涨的现象，同时考虑到通胀的基数效应，本次通胀预期抬升意味着美联储认为下半年的通胀压力仍在。\n货币政策目标方面，美联储仍允许通胀水平在一段时间内高于2%的政策预期，但利率将持续维持现区间直至就业达到最大化水平，结合鲍威尔发言，在经济复苏好过预期、就业逐步改善的基础上，本次加息预期的提前也将“暂时性”通胀已持续一段时间的压力考虑其中，综合来看，美联储要求就业水平出现显著、实质的改善，对通胀则是更关注平均水平，留有一定的时间和空间。\n\n政策工具虽为技术性调整，但流动性收紧方向已确定。利率价格方面，基准利率维持在0-0.25%区间不变，超额准备金利率（IOER）与隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）均上调5BP至0.15%与0.05%；购债数量方面，维持每月1200亿美元（800亿国债+400亿MBS）不变。考虑到近期ON RRP用量激增，零利率下限受到挑战，本次IOER与ON RRP上调旨在从技术角度保护联邦基金目标利率的下限，5BP的区间不仅为防止负利率提供了保护垫，还有助于促进货币市场的资金流动，虽然不是实质上的加息，但货币政策方向已确定收紧。\n政策利率预测点阵图超预期，Taper已近在眼前。点阵图表现方面，本次点阵图预测有7位委员认为2022年会加息（前值为4位）、有13位委员认为2023年会加息（前值为7位），长期利率水平维持不变。本次点阵图加息概率与加息次数均明显提升且超出市场预期，但鲍威尔随后提到“点阵图并不能很好地预测未来利率走势”，在一定程度上缓和了市场情绪，但至少可以说明，较上次FOMC会议，美联储对经济恢复与政策收紧的预期已有改变，现阶段的经济、通胀表现已影响政策预期。Taper信号方面，鲍威尔在新闻发布会中提到缩减QE，但仍强调需要更多数据支持，并且会提前与市场沟通，对Taper整体表述虽较中性，但考虑到疫苗接种顺利开展、经济复苏势头持续、就业改善已在路上、通胀风险或将持续等诸多因素，Taper已在眼前，或将在7月的FOMC会议中有所体现。\n\n2、随着疫苗接种加快、疫情有效控制，经济复苏重心转向服务消费\n消费方面，美国商品消费已超过疫情前水平，服务消费处于持续修复阶段。美国5月零售同比28.15%，较2019年同期增长20.69%，分项来看，餐馆营业、保健护理、加油站、服装配饰恢复亮眼，设备投资略有回落，在疫苗接种有序进行的背景下，消费重心正从“线上+商品”转向“线下+服务”。\n投资方面，整体来看，美国制造能力明显恢复，企业开支已恢复到疫情前水平。2021年5月美国工业产能利用率为75.2%，2019年5月为77.6%，美国4月耐用品新增订单2463.03亿美元，同比上升47.04%，环比受上月调整影响录得-1.27%，美国4月扣除国防、运输后的耐用品新增订单达1664.49亿美元，创历史新高，环比上涨2.94%，连续2个月实现增长。\n生产力方面，美国产能利用率、工业产出指数已恢复接近至疫情前水平。2021年5月美国工业产能利用率75.2%，2019年同期77.6%，制造业PMI产出指数连续位于60%以上高景气区间。总体来看，美国生产端持续恢复，产能接近疫情前水平，考虑到需求端恢复强于生产端，生产端仍有提升空间。\n景气度方面，市场信心维持乐观，服务业恢复维持韧性。美国5月ISM制造业PMI为61.2%,ISM非制造业PMI为64%，均连续12个月位于景气区间。制造业PMI中订单边际抬升，表明经济恢复带动需求走高，产出边际回落但仍然位于高景气区间，自有库存回升但客户库存仍处于低位，供应商配送效率仍有待提高。总体上看，美国制造业需求旺盛，佐证经济恢复有所成效，制造业恢复得以确认；衡量美国服务业景气的非制造业PMI明显超出预期，各分项处于景气区间，说明服务业恢复仍在继续。\n就业方面，需求旺盛但供给不足，救济政策退出将促进就业恢复。从整体就业数据来看，5月份美国新增非农就业55.9万人低于预期，失业率为5.8%，预期5.9%，劳动参与率录得61.6%低于预期，5月非农时薪环比上涨0.5%，预期上涨0.2%。具体来看，新增就业中服务业表现强劲，在疫苗接种成效体现的带动下，休闲和酒店业新增就业29.2万人，私人部门服务业领域本月新增就业48.9万人，新增就业贡献率达到88%，经济恢复重心偏向服务业可以确认；就业市场出现“就业人数增长+薪水走高”，从供需角度来看是需求旺盛但供给相对较弱所致，美国多州已现抬高失业救济门槛与逐渐停止失业援助金的政策。展望未来，劳动力供给有望改善，就业缺口或收窄，在经济恢复重心偏向服务行业的趋势下，服务业就业有望加速改善。\n通胀方面，消费场景放开利好外出服务行业，劳动密集型产业明显恢复。美国5月PPI同比6.6%，季调环比0.8%，同比创08年以来新高；核心PPI同比4.8%，季调环比0.7%；CPI同比5.0%，季调环比0.6%，核心CPI同比3.8%，季调环比0.7%。分项来看，租车服务、二手车、机票以及搬运储存和运输费用均实现了连续两个月的上升。其中汽车和卡车租用费用三个月连续上升，5月、4月和3月环比CPI分别为12.1%，16.2%和11.7%。二手车5月CPI环比7.3%，4月环比10%。机票5月环比7%，4月环比10.2%。明显看出随着疫情的逐步向好，外出活动相关服务与商品在不断恢复。同时受到劳动力短缺的影响，搬运等人力密集型产业CPI上涨幅度也逐渐显现。搬运储存和运输费用环比上升5.5%，增幅较上月高出3.4个百分点；4月核心PCE环比0.7%，其中消费服务项PCE环比0.55%，同比增速至3.1%超出预期，消费服务的涨幅会更快地传导至居民收入端，为通胀持续提供动力，整体来看，上下游通胀水平均超预期，环比数据季调后上涨斜率走缓，随着经济恢复、消费回暖，通胀短期或仍维持较高水平，或对美联储“平均通胀”的监测体系产生冲击。\n疫情方面，随着疫苗接种有序开展，美国疫情明显改善。美国每日新增确诊人数控制在1.5万人以内，较4月疫情反弹的高点明显回落，已处于疫情爆发后最低水平；接种疫苗人数占比已破50%，在发达国家中仍处于较高水平，考虑到美国人口基数远高于其他发达国家，美国的疫苗接种力度处于领先地位。\n3、美联储货币政策即将转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来\n当前阶段，在美联储关注的“就业和通胀”目标框架内，影响货币政策收紧、全球流动性拐点形成的重要边际变化已经出现。美联储对经济及就业恢复的认可度提升，对通胀容忍度表态明显改观、财政大规模支出压力加大。美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n但必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀与财政背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，整体就业修复形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素，因此美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n3.1 美联储政策即将转向：经济恢复向好、通胀压力陡增、财政刺激放缓\n美联储对经济恢复的认可度提升。美国疫苗接种率逐步提升，财政刺激逐步落地，促使美国房地产延续超级景气周期、制造业上行延续、服务业反弹超预期，需求端复苏逐步由商品消费扩展到服务消费领域。6月FOMC议息会议中美联储认为疫苗接种进展有效减少了疫情传播，在疫苗接种进展持续推进和强有力的货币政策支持下，经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强。6月份FOMC议息会议经济总量预测大幅上修，失业率大幅下修，显示美联储对经济和就业市场中期前景保持乐观，鲍威尔认为当前美国正在迈向更强大的劳动力市场，即低失业率、高参与率、工资上升的劳动力市场。在对未来“充分就业”预期的边际调整下，经济对逆周期货币政策依存度降低，美联储中期货币政策转向具有必然性。\n通胀成为制约美联储继续释放流动性的关键变量。美国5月CPI同比涨幅达5%，核心CPI涨幅达3.8%，在经济活动和就业指标持续有所增强的同时，通胀上升带来的问题也逐步显现。美联储认为2021年到2023年期间整体通胀水平将有一定程度上浮，其中2021年通胀预测由2.4%上修至3.4%，核心通胀水平由2.2%上修至3.0%，2022和2023年通胀预测分别达2.1%、2.2%，均高于美联储长期通胀目标水平。此前美联储在会议纪要中提到，外国整体通胀水平大幅上升，石油和其他商品价格上涨向下游消费的传导正在逐步凸显，外部疫情和输入性通胀问题是美联储正在密切关注的议题。\n随着通胀的表现逐步由此前美联储所提到的“暂时性”的向“结构性”转变，也引发了美联储对于通胀容忍程度表态的变动。在整体对经济预测上修的同时，美联储对通胀的担忧也有所增加，认为通胀水平可能比预期中要产生更长时间的影响，因此，美联储不得不面临在逆周期调节政策影响下经济修复和美元流动性泛滥带来的短期通胀对长期通胀目标偏离的问题之间取得平衡。\n赤字式大规模财政刺激不可持续。美国经济形势逐渐步入正轨，实际通胀水平和通胀预期不断升温，就业市场向充分稳定就业水平逐步修复，未来对财政政策进一步宽松的需求下降，通过天量发行债券的赤字式大规模财政刺激将逐步淡出。\n一方面，2020年以来的落地的多轮财政刺激法案使财政赤字率激增；另一方面，美国国内产业链供应缺口问题以及美元流动性泛滥导致的美元阶段性贬值，引发贸易赤字在年内不断扩大。美国双赤字扩大，对未来美国政府大规模赤字式财政支出造成阶段性约束，高赤字支撑式的财政支出不可持续。未来拜登政府力主推出的《美国家庭计划》和《美国就业计划》更多需要依靠税收政策支撑，利用公司税和资本利得税提升财政收入、平滑债务负担迫在眉睫。总的来看，未来美债供给速度边际放缓，美联储通过持续性资产购买扩表的速度也会有所降低，缩减资产购买具有内在必然性。\n3.2 美联储货币政策后续变动可能性路径\n我们在1月提出《我们可能正站在广义流动性的周期性拐点上》，提出在经济复苏背景下，通胀预期抬头，货币政策回归正常化，广义流动性面临拐点。当前阶段，美国经济恢复取得成效，而美元流动性泛滥、结构性供需缺口以及输入性通胀等因素又对美国物价水平形成持续性扰动，美联储货币政策必将向正常化进程回归。总的来说，美联储货币政策面临转向，全球流动性拐点正在到来。\n我们认为美联储货币政策变动可能的路径是：先根据美债发行调整资产购买速度和购买结构，再逐步考虑加息的可能性，最后考虑资产负债表规模缩减。从流动性拐点的时间节奏看，2021年下半年美联储或将开始讨论具体缩减资产购买计划并给出相对明确路径指引，2022年开始缩减资产购买，2023年进入加息进程。\n美联储上一轮货币周期收紧、流动性拐点开始于2013年5月，伯南克在听证会提及缩减资产购买计划。半年后2013年12月开始正式缩减资产购买规模，由此前每月购买850亿美元开始，每月缩减购买100亿美元。2014年时完成资产购买缩减。2014年4季度开始，美联储资产负债规模基本维持在4.5万亿美元水平，并于2014年9月公布《货币政策正常化原则及纲领》，确定FOMC将上调联邦基金利率目标区间，并以渐进的方式减少联储的债券持有量。2015年12月开始加息，2015、2016、2017、2018年分别加息1次、1次、3次、4次，将联邦基金目标利率上限调整至2.25%，并于2017年9月开始正式缩表，2019年8月美联储资产负债表降至3.8万亿美元。\n\n必须指出的是，当前流动性拐点产生的经济通胀背景与财政政策背景较上一轮周期相比有明显差异。一方面，与上一轮加息缩表周期相比，当前阶段，影响美联储政策框架目标的两个关键因素——“就业和通胀”的结构性表现较为不同。2021年5月美国CPI同比达5%，核心CPI同比达3.8%，而2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国CPI同比仅1.4%，核心CPI同比1.7%。2021年5月美国失业率降至5.8%，2013年5月美联储开始正式提及缩减资产购买计划时，美国整体就业状况向好，失业率虽也显现出稳中下降趋势，但整体失业率水平仍在7.5%。整体就业形势更好、但通胀形势更严峻，是影响当前阶段美联储货币政策决策，将以较快速度转向货币政策谨慎区间的决定性因素。美联储本轮货币政策收紧、流动性拐点或许要比市场预计的更快到来。\n另一方面，与上轮周期相比，本轮周期中美联储货币政策调整需面临截然不同的财政状况。2020年多轮大规模财政刺激计划推出使美国财政赤字率达到前所未有的高度，叠加未来拜登政府政策框架内可能延续的《美国就业计划》和《美国家庭计划》，政府债务负担压力也使得货币政策的收紧可能在更长的周期内得以完成，而公共债务及利息支出压力、信贷资产质量等问题也会使美联储的加息缩表步伐更加谨慎，加息幅度有限。\n4、美联储货币政策转向对中国、美国及新兴经济体的影响\n4.1 美元周期的传导原理\n美元升值对世界其他经济体影响深远。从传导路径上来看，主要从两个方面进行传导。一个是商品层面，另一个是资本市场层面。\n从商品层面看，大部分大宗商品以美元定价，故当美元走强时大宗商品价格承压，资源型国家受到压制。同时，由于强美元导致的非美元货币贬值，引起非美元国家物价上涨，造成输入型膨胀。此外，非美元货币贬值还会降低出口商品或服务的价格，提高进口商品或服务的价格。由于“马歇尔-勒纳条件”的存在，短期内对外贸易有恶化可能。\n从金融层面上看，首先美元升值会导致美元资产收益预期增加，导致资金回流美国。未实施汇率自由浮动的国家会面临外汇储备流失的风险，被迫收紧货币政策，流动性紧张，同时，被动加息导致融资成本上升，对内实体经济承压。叠加非美元货币贬值，对外增加外债。此外，弱美元周期时美国国内资产预期收益相对低，资金流出美国寻找投资机会，易引发非美元国家资产价格出现泡沫。一旦强美元周期出现，美元回流会导致非美元国家资产价格承压。\n4.2 美国经济持续复苏，美元指数进入回升通道\n预计未来随着货币政策向紧预期不断提升，美元指数有望进入回升通道。目前美元指数震荡波动，截止2021年6月18日收于92.23。目前美国制造业PMI新订单指数自2020年7月以来持续处于60%以上的高景气区间。个人消费支出和私人投资总额均已超过疫情前水平。且美国产能利用率、工业产出指数等也已恢复接近至疫情前水平。虽然新增非农就业方面受到劳动力供给限制，数据仍然低于预期，但失业率有所缓解。此外，受到拜登的刺激计划作用，美国CPI数据也创下历史新高。然而值得注意的是，随着美联储公布6月议息会议纪要以及加息点阵图，美元指数18日当天上涨0.39%，自16日收盘以来累计上涨1个百分点。\n随着未来货币政策的时间点确认，十年期国债利率也将进入上升通道。美国十年期国债目前看来同样受到美元疲软影响，自3月份小幅上升后成震荡下行状态。值得注意的是5月份美国经济数据显示通胀较为强烈，但市场反应平淡。可能由于美联储不断释放鸽派信号所致。但考虑到未来的货币政策走向基本已经确定，未来美国十年期国债收益率长期看仍有上升空间。短期看，美联储目前释放的信号较为温和。\n综合考虑美联储货币政策调整、拜登基建刺激政策、美元资本回流等因素，未来美股可能波动增大。根据以往的经验判断，美国股市在受到流动性紧缩预期的影响后通常波动较为剧烈。然而此次周期的背景有所不同。此前拜登在2022财年继续提出高达6万亿的财政计划，其中包括《美国就业计划》以及《美元家庭计划》。两项投资计划主要包括运输系统基建项目、生活房屋质量改善项目、残疾人及老人生活质量改善项目以及研究发展高新制造业项目和教育基建等。\n\n4.3 新兴市场面临疫情、高债务和资本流出的多重打击\n本轮加息周期在所难免，土耳其等新兴市场即将面临下一轮考验。近期，随着美联储不断发声，缩紧货币政策的苗头已经显现。外汇储备不足、外债占比过高、短期负债比重较大、经济恢复较缓以及债务率偏高等因素都将导致新兴经济体的金融脆弱性。\n2020年3月，包括土耳其在内的三个新兴经济体采取了加息措施，以应对国内日益高涨的通货膨胀和货币贬值的压力，但随即土耳其便发生股债汇三杀的情景。\n自2003年以来，土耳其便开始执行低利率宽松货币政策。2003年-2017年间，土耳其虽然GDP增速长期保持在6%左右，但货币超发导致的CPI上升及房价泡沫也不可避免。同时低利率政策也吸引了大量外资进入。虽然自2017年起土耳其进行了四次大规模的加息以应对国内通货膨胀，但其CPI同比自2017年以来大部分时间保持在10%以上。土耳其DPPI与CPI一样，大部分时间都在高位运行。同时，土耳其在2018年放松了外资管制，大量外资进入土耳其市场。此外，土耳其的外汇储备较低，偿付外债的能力较弱，叠加其外债水平较高，市场易受风险影响。\n随着3月份土耳其总统解雇央行行长并重新任命支持低利率的人选导致投资者对土耳其市场信心不足。叠加美元指数走强和10年美债收益率上行所导致的全球流动性变化，最终引发了此次土耳其里拉汇率贬值，资金外逃。\n\n从世界的角度来看，若以100%的债务率，20%的负债率，100%的短债与外汇储备比为安全线进行测算的话，目前债务违约风险较大的国家有阿根廷、土耳其等国家。若同时考虑到经济基本面，货币超发、通货膨胀严重同时疫情反复的国家，阿根廷、土耳其以及埃及在过去一段时间中货币超发比较严重，导致国内通胀高企。此外，土耳其和阿根廷的疫情反复均较严重，未来经济恢复前景堪忧。\n\n4.4 中国经济韧性放缓，警惕流动性退潮后的债务风险\n中国复苏周期领跑，人民币基本面强劲。人民币自2020年下半年以来持续上涨，在今年2月份出现小幅回调后加速抬头。在《此轮人民币升值的原因、影响、政策与展望》文章中，我们指出本轮人民币升值的主要原因是中美复苏错位，在中国率先恢复的背景下，人民币的预期投资回报率相对美元较高。其次是中美货币政策错位，随着我国货币政策回归正常化，对国际资本具有较强的吸引力。叠加美元流动性过剩和美元指数低位弱势，导致了本轮人民币的升值。短期看，随着美联储缩减购债规模信号释放，人民币汇率将保持区间震荡。长期看，中国经济韧性较强，国际化程度逐步增加，具备长期升值潜力。\n我国的外债水平整体平稳，截止2020年底，我国对外负债率为16.3%，债务率为87.9%，均低于国际警戒线。然而随着国内信用收紧、金融去杠杆叠加国际流动性变化等因素，部分房地产、地方平台、僵尸企业等债务风险较高的部门开始暴露风险，需警惕流动性退潮后的债务问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}