UserTrying personal page - To The Moon

UserTrying

UserTrying

Profile：Hello!

1Follow

13Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-06-06

$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$Sadded

2022-06-06

$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$ Up?

2022-03-31

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$No

2022-03-14

$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...

2022-01-18

$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow

2021-06-30

$AMD(AMD)$[Smile]

2021-06-24

Comment

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer

2021-06-23

[Bless]

2021-06-22

Buy?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-19

Running

@UserTrying:$Sunrun(RUN)$[Thinking]

2021-06-18

$Sunrun(RUN)$[Thinking]

2021-06-12

??

@小虎活动:【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金

2021-06-08

$GameStop(GME)$[LOL]

2021-06-07

[Thinking]

2021-06-07

$Snowflake(SNOW)$[Smile]

2021-05-29

$Snowflake(SNOW)$[Smile]

2021-05-27

$Boeing(BA)$[Smile]

2021-05-25

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$[Bless]

2021-05-25

$PayPal(PYPL)$[Smile]

2021-05-18

$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$[Serious] [Bless]

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3562059790374112,"uuid":"3562059790374112","gmtCreate":1598966363755,"gmtModify":1635742275056,"name":"UserTrying","pinyin":"usertrying","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"Hello!","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":13,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":73,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.05.30","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.19%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9053123231,"gmtCreate":1654501095723,"gmtModify":1676535458453,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a>Sadded","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a>Sadded","text":"$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$Sadded","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e5c0be93ce8b8d24b5d2dac53fafd3","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053123231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053123129,"gmtCreate":1654501041961,"gmtModify":1676535458444,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a> Up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a> Up?","text":"$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$ Up?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6e9ff439a265eed45850e3fabfdc4c93","width":"828","height":"1875"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053123129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013595976,"gmtCreate":1648742263319,"gmtModify":1676534389936,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>No","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>No","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013595976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9032009033,"gmtCreate":1647225479153,"gmtModify":1676534205065,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the&nbsp;opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the&nbsp;opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","text":"$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032009033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well","text":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well","html":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004950369,"gmtCreate":1642481928035,"gmtModify":1676533714638,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","text":"$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004950369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153031230,"gmtCreate":1624984264320,"gmtModify":1703849585046,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$AMD(AMD)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d6e244dad0c13df8d85f3835c80465","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153031230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126308714,"gmtCreate":1624543565538,"gmtModify":1703839912627,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126308714","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121884561,"gmtCreate":1624458794453,"gmtModify":1703837427186,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"[Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50aaba61419a43e201d44f26b071609d","width":"750","height":"2098"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121884561","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129645497,"gmtCreate":1624372236419,"gmtModify":1703834793127,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129645497","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162327388,"gmtCreate":1624035755244,"gmtModify":1703827394417,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Running","listText":"Running","text":"Running","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162327388","repostId":"168758939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":168758939,"gmtCreate":1623984568621,"gmtModify":1703825572668,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"$Sunrun(RUN)$[Thinking]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e0a299552203dd9b1b6d80860623a2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168758939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168758939,"gmtCreate":1623984568621,"gmtModify":1703825572668,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"$Sunrun(RUN)$[Thinking]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e0a299552203dd9b1b6d80860623a2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168758939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188470491,"gmtCreate":1623460490713,"gmtModify":1704204167657,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188470491","repostId":"114899451","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":114899451,"gmtCreate":1623063308869,"gmtModify":1704195267674,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎7週年】集卡瓜分百萬獎金","htmlText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","listText":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/7th-anniversary?lang=zh_CN\" target=\"_blank\">戳我即可參與活動</a> &#x1;如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。&#x1;如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 &#x1; &#x1;如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。&#x1; 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP &gt; 我的 &gt; 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","text":"老虎7週年給大家發福利了，集齊TIGER五個字母即有機會瓜分百萬獎金，你準備好了嗎？ 戳我即可參與活動 \u0001如何參與？ 用戶可通過完成活動頁面展示的當日任務列表來獲得字母卡，每完成一個任務即可隨機獲得一個字母，用戶集齊“TIGER”五個字母即可參與瓜分百萬股票代金券，每個用戶單日最多可獲得20張字母卡（不包括好友贈予和魔法卡）。 用戶在活動期間邀請累計7名好友完成註冊並開戶（註冊時間和開戶時間均在活動期間），即可獲得一張魔法卡（每人僅可獲得一張魔法卡）。魔法卡可用於兌換TIGER中的任意一個字母。\u0001如果用戶的某一字母卡數量爲0，則字母卡爲灰色，用戶可通過點擊灰色的字母卡向好友索要卡片；如果用戶的字母卡數量大於0，則字母卡爲彩色，用戶可通過點擊彩色的字母卡向好友贈送卡片。當用戶集齊TIGER之後將無法再索要卡片或者贈送卡片。 \u0001 \u0001如何獲得獎勵？ 用戶可在2021年7月1日至2021年7月2日期間進行開獎，所有集齊TIGER的客戶可點擊活動頁面的“開獎”按鈕，即可查看自己瓜分到的股票代金券獎勵。在開獎時間段內未點擊開獎的用戶將無法獲得獎勵。\u0001 獎勵發放： 股票代金券將在開獎後的1個工作日內發放至用戶的獎勵中心，用戶需要在獎勵發放後的20天內前往【Tiger Trade APP > 我的 > 活動獎勵】領取，過期未領取的獎勵將自動失效。 重要提示： 本次7週年活動涉及不同國家和地區，由於各地區的監管要求不同，不同地區的活動獎勵會有所區別。欲知詳情，請點擊下方活動鏈接，登陸您的賬號，並點擊“活動規則“查看詳情。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd956a9c2fc9ee609753ae5f967072a7","width":"415","height":"616"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e88357b534f504b3088bc22f577a83","width":"415","height":"326"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe0400cc487fb56f85d401ab03df4d5e","width":"415","height":"356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114899451","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117688985,"gmtCreate":1623138017047,"gmtModify":1704196831431,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"$GameStop(GME)$[LOL]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e9239a50e83bc3c3e661de83ac10720","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117688985","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114539120,"gmtCreate":1623078809260,"gmtModify":1704195690950,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3457d7179ba3efb4ba61aae90858dd99","width":"750","height":"1517"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114539120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114530936,"gmtCreate":1623078756125,"gmtModify":1704195688817,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Snowflake(SNOW)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57c96a0ea4657845cdcbbfd66862e71","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114530936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134634607,"gmtCreate":1622220408809,"gmtModify":1704181855737,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Snowflake(SNOW)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31120e07c5647be6564f6c688f512e94","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134634607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":48,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135074561,"gmtCreate":1622124364253,"gmtModify":1704179927255,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$Boeing(BA)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$Boeing(BA)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$Boeing(BA)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4054e3cf43f1e31a22ba82e2c261542","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135074561","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138578740,"gmtCreate":1621951509580,"gmtModify":1704365052497,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$[Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed2577b7b40aeb32fc3ec79e5b23bc2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138578740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138571483,"gmtCreate":1621951468142,"gmtModify":1704365051204,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b67036d284a541349698e53dc7820c6","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138571483","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194114359,"gmtCreate":1621347604771,"gmtModify":1704356212853,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$</a>[Serious]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$</a>[Serious]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$[Serious] [Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00244ada4f848c2181d3acaaf3f74102","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194114359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9032009033,"gmtCreate":1647225479153,"gmtModify":1676534205065,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the&nbsp;opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the&nbsp;opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","text":"$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$Gave up on this and sold... Seems to be dropping further and further... the opportunity cost of holding this seems too much...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032009033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well","text":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well","html":"Seems like someone is pushing the stock down and dumping it…the window dressing (100 share buy up to maintain the share price) won’t be able to clear such huge wall for now as well"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126308714,"gmtCreate":1624543565538,"gmtModify":1703839912627,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126308714","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p>\n<p>Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p>\n<p>Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p>\n<p>And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p>\n<p>While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p>\n<p><b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p>\n<p><b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p>\n<p>Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p>\n<p>Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p>\n<p>The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p>\n<p><b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p>\n<p>Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p>\n<p>What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p>\n<p><b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p>\n<p>Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p>\n<p>Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p>\n<p>Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p>\n<p><b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p>\n<p>For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p>\n<p>The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p>\n<p>Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p>\n<p><b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p>\n<p>Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p>\n<p>But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p>\n<p>Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168758939,"gmtCreate":1623984568621,"gmtModify":1703825572668,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">$Sunrun(RUN)$</a>[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"$Sunrun(RUN)$[Thinking]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e0a299552203dd9b1b6d80860623a2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168758939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117688985,"gmtCreate":1623138017047,"gmtModify":1704196831431,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"$GameStop(GME)$[LOL]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e9239a50e83bc3c3e661de83ac10720","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117688985","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004950369,"gmtCreate":1642481928035,"gmtModify":1676533714638,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/579.SI\">$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$</a>https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","text":"$OCEANUS GROUP LIMITED(579.SI)$https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/hub-projects/brands-for-good/building-sustainability-for-the-security-of-tomorrow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004950369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153031230,"gmtCreate":1624984264320,"gmtModify":1703849585046,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"$AMD(AMD)$[Smile]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d6e244dad0c13df8d85f3835c80465","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153031230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377549697,"gmtCreate":1619538968419,"gmtModify":1704725679831,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$[Happy]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b4236964ec5ce7a9805eb6c291903e","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377549697","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360718668,"gmtCreate":1613977456854,"gmtModify":1704886360486,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Going up?","listText":"Going up?","text":"Going up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360718668","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149321056","pubTimestamp":1613976796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149321056?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Estimates And Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149321056","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir has all the characteristics of a great business.</li>\n <li>Let's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?</li>\n <li>The market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.</li>\n <li>At a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Overview of Palantir</b></p>\n<p>PLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.</p>\n<p>PLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.</p>\n<p>As a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.</p>\n<p>Finally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?</p>\n<p><b>FAANGM Performance as a Benchmark</b></p>\n<p>To get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1794cd64edb9d2cf465bd93ca4613257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)</span></p>\n<p>I wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Using the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.</p>\n<p>What scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a98f252b09771038babb2096895962\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Another option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75d86a5b8ac1fd5b09bdfe1e607580b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f249ea7966b4bc3fed90d01c49c315\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>The primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.</p>\n<p><b>Caveats and Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.</p>\n<p>The second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Estimates And Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Estimates And Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 14:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149321056","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\nThe market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.\nAt a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.\n\nPalantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.\nA Quick Overview of Palantir\nPLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.\nPLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.\nAs a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.\nFinally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?\nFAANGM Performance as a Benchmark\nTo get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)\nI wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.\nPalantir Valuation Scenarios\nUsing the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.\nWhat scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nAnother option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nFinally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nThe primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.\nCaveats and Risks\nThere are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.\nThe second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"\nConclusion\nIt is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317967949,"gmtCreate":1612408062681,"gmtModify":1704870762665,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmm","listText":"hmmm","text":"hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317967949","repostId":"1150284862","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138578740,"gmtCreate":1621951509580,"gmtModify":1704365052497,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$[Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed2577b7b40aeb32fc3ec79e5b23bc2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138578740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194114359,"gmtCreate":1621347604771,"gmtModify":1704356212853,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$</a>[Serious]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RTX\">$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$</a>[Serious]&nbsp;[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"$Raytheon Technologies Corporation(RTX)$[Serious] [Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00244ada4f848c2181d3acaaf3f74102","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194114359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367406526,"gmtCreate":1614959613365,"gmtModify":1704777627531,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sad","listText":"sad","text":"sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367406526","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 13%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":20,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360716297,"gmtCreate":1613977562119,"gmtModify":1704886361781,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh","listText":"oh","text":"oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360716297","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143100356","pubTimestamp":1613792715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143100356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-20 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143100356","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results ","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.</p><p>Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.</p><p>Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.</p><p>All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…</p><p><b>NIO Inc.NIO</b></p><p>Every major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.</p><p>NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.</p><p>Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.</p><p>With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.</p><p>NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6233d1784a5cb7db62b437f7632a3f\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.</p><p>At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.</p><p>NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.</p><p>Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.</p><p><b>CrowdStrikeCRWD</b></p><p>CrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.</p><p>Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.</p><p>CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f684cfbac7ba46e2cf8ab6e063461a2\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.</p><p>The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.</p><p>CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”</p><p>Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.</p><p>In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.</p><p>CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.</p><p><b>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</b>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Top Tech Stocks to Buy Now for Big Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-20 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-top-tech-stocks-to-buy-now-for-big-growth-2021-02-19","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143100356","content_text":"The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped during the week of February 15, after they closed at new records last week. Despite the drop in some of the big tech names such as AppleAAPL, FacebookFB, MicrosoftMSFT, Zoom VideoZM, and countless others this week, the market fundamentals remain relatively strong.Ebbs and flows, as well as pullbacks and corrections are healthy aspects of the market. And they need not be viewed as anything but normal occurrences, especially as strong earnings results continue to pour in. Better yet, the outlook for the first quarter and the rest of 2021 has improved significantly.Vaccine distribution will hopefully help the economy roar back by the summer and lift some of the hardest-hit areas of the economy. Meanwhile, Wall Street is banking on more spending under the Biden administration and the Fed remains firmly committed to keeping interest rates low.All of these factors set up a bullish outlook for 2021. But instead of focusing on companies that need a vaccine to really grow, let’s look at two tech stocks that have posted big sales growth during the pandemic and are ready to expand for years within futuristic industries…NIO Inc.NIOEvery major automaker, from FordFto Volvo, is racing to roll out more electric vehicles as they try to catch TeslaTSLA. Luckily for investors, the EV market is far from a zero-sum game and newcomers continue to enter the space. Chinese EV maker NIO is a rising star in the booming market, as its sales continue to grow. The company is also focused on autonomous driving tech, as well as batteries, which are the lifeblood of the industry.NIO sells multiple models that are somewhat in-line with Tesla, from smaller SUVs to sedans. The company said in early January that it delivered 17,353 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which marked a 110% jump.Overall, NIO’s full-year deliveries surged 113% to nearly 44,000 vehicles in 2020. And its January 2021 figures were even more impressive, with deliveries up 350% from the year-ago period to push its overall cumulative deliveries to 83K.With this in mind, Zacks estimates call for NIO’s FY20 revenue to jump 120% to $2.49 billion, with FY21 projected to come in another 97% higher to reach $4.89 billion. The Chinese EV company is also expected to significantly shrink its adjusted losses during this stretch.NIO has topped our EPS estimates in the trailing two periods and its positive earnings revisions help it land a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) heading into the release of its Q4 results on March 1.NIO, which rocks an “A” grade for Growth in our Style Scores system, has seen its stock skyrocket over 1,000% in the last year and 300% in the past six months. Luckily for investors who missed the ride, NIO has cooled down, up only 12% in the last three months.At roughly $55 per share, it’s down about 13% from its late January records. The recent downturn has seen it fall from overbought in terms of the Relative Strength Index to around 45—an RSI above 70 is often regarded as overbought, with any number below 30 considered oversold.NIO’s recent price performance could give it room to run if it’s able to impress Wall Street. And the stock jumped over 1% through morning trading Friday, as it bounces off its 50-day moving average. NIO shares also trade at a discount compared to other high-flyers at 12.7X forward sales, which marks a discount against Tesla’s 15.5X and comes in 25% below its own six-months highs.Three out of the nine brokerage recommendations that Zacks has for NIO come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none below a “Hold.” NIO might be worth buying as a long-term play that’s far less expensive than Tesla ($784 a share), in a world where EVs already accounted for over 30% of Volvo’s new car sales in Europe in 2020. And let’s remember that China is one of the world’s largest EV markets.CrowdStrikeCRWDCrowdStrike is a cloud-focused cybersecurity firm that utilizes machine learning and AI to protect endpoints and cloud workloads. This is crucial in the cloud age that’s full of rapidly expanding endpoints, which include laptops, desktops, smartphones, IoT devices, and more.Remote work and schooling pushed this area of the ever-growing cybersecurity space to the forefront, but it was already booming. More importantly, as devices proliferate and our digitally-connected world grows more complex, it becomes more vulnerable.CrowdStrike on February announced plans to bolster its offerings through the acquisition of Humio for $400 million—expected to close in the first quarter. Humio provides high-performance cloud log management and observability technology. The deal is set to “further expand its eXtended Detection and Response (XDR) capabilities by ingesting and correlating data from any log, application or feed to deliver actionable insights and real-time protection.”CrowdStrike, which went public in the summer of 2019, has soared nearly 280% in the past 12 months. More recently, the stock is up 65% in the last six months, and it already bounced back to new records—which it hit earlier in the week—after it slipped in mid-January.The stock is firmly a growth play at the moment, trading at 42.7X forward sales, which puts it right in line with e-commerce giant ShopifySHOP. Despite its run, the stock is not currently considered overbought, with an RSI of 64.CRWD’s positive earnings revisions help it grab a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment, with it set to release its fourth quarter fiscal 2021 results on March 16. Meanwhile, 14 of the 19 brokerage ratings Zacks has for CRWD come in at a “Strong Buy,” with none lower than a “Hold.”Looking back, the company crushed our Q3 estimates in December, with sales up 86%. CrowdStrike also lifted its guidance at the time. Zacks estimates currently call for it to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.02 a share in the year-ago period to +$0.09 in the fourth quarter on 65% stronger sales.In total, the cybersecurity firm is projected to soar from a loss of -$0.42 a share to +$0.23 in fiscal 2021. Plus, CRWD’s FY22 EPS figure is projected to climb another 70% higher, all the way to $0.39 a share. Meanwhile, its revenue is projected to jump 79% to hit $861 million in FY21 and then climb another 42% to $1.22 billion in FY22.CrowdStrike’s expected growth would come on top of FY20’s 93% sales expansion. The stock has clearly already gone on an impressive run. But it is poised to continue to grow in a world where everything is connected and data is endless. Therefore, cybersecurity firms such as CrowdStrike might make for strong long-term growth plays.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360718515,"gmtCreate":1613977472237,"gmtModify":1704886360647,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmm","listText":"hmmm","text":"hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360718515","repostId":"1149321056","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149321056","pubTimestamp":1613976796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149321056?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 14:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Estimates And Expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149321056","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir has all the characteristics of a great business.</li>\n <li>Let's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?</li>\n <li>The market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.</li>\n <li>At a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.</p>\n<p><b>A Quick Overview of Palantir</b></p>\n<p>PLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.</p>\n<p>PLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.</p>\n<p>As a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.</p>\n<p>Finally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?</p>\n<p><b>FAANGM Performance as a Benchmark</b></p>\n<p>To get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1794cd64edb9d2cf465bd93ca4613257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)</span></p>\n<p>I wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Using the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.</p>\n<p>What scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a98f252b09771038babb2096895962\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Another option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b75d86a5b8ac1fd5b09bdfe1e607580b\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"625\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f249ea7966b4bc3fed90d01c49c315\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"626\"><span>(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)</span></p>\n<p>The primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.</p>\n<p><b>Caveats and Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.</p>\n<p>The second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Estimates And Expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Estimates And Expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 14:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4407785-palantir-estimates-and-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149321056","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir has all the characteristics of a great business.\nLet's assume Palantir is going to be as successful as the FAANGM companies over the next decade; how should we value Palantir today?\nThe market is pricing in a lot of success; it will be difficult for Palantir to exceed investor expectations over the next ten years.\nAt a $54 billion market cap, Palantir is offering market-average returns at best while carrying meaningful valuation risk.\n\nPalantir (PLTR) has all the makings of a successful business. The company has a game-changing product, limited direct competition, the ability to scale efficiently, and a long runway for growth. I have seen multiple analyses that suggest PLTR will be the next FAANGM stock. Let's assume PLTR achieves the levels of success reached by Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Google (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT); how should we think about PLTR's valuation today? In this article, I will use the historical performance of the FAANGM stocks to benchmark potential outcomes for PLTR and discussion the company's valuation.\nA Quick Overview of Palantir\nPLTR has developed a software platform that can generate actionable insights from large, unstructured datasets. The main application of this software thus far has been to provide the United States government and its allies with tools to make strategic military decisions based on data collected in the field. PLTR also services customers in other industries, such as the healthcare, manufacturing, and energy sectors. The company's platform can provide value to any customer with a lot of data and a desire to make better business decisions. As such, PLTR is well positioned to take advantage of growing demand for artificial intelligence, \"Big Data\" solutions, and systematic decision making.\nPLTR has the qualities I look for in an attractive business model. Their platform provides a tangible benefit to their customers, as evidenced by their high-profile book of business. The value derived from PLTR's platform is hard to quantify; how much is preventing a terrorist attack worth to the US government? This is a positive because it allows pricing to be more ambiguous and makes it difficult for other companies to compete on price. When the US military buys bullets, price is the only thing to compete on (beyond a basic level of quality). How do you quantify the exact value of good intelligence? PLTR can charge higher prices for a higher quality product and that provides a competitive advantage over the long term.\nAs a software-heavy company, PLTR has the ability to scale efficiently to meet increased demand without needing to invest a lot of new capital into the business.\nFinally, the company has a long runway for growth, with a successful product suite established in the market and a plethora of adjacent industries that could benefit from PLTR's product offering. I am comfortable saying PLTR is a great business. The question is how much should we pay today for the company's shares?\nFAANGM Performance as a Benchmark\nTo get a sense of what a fair valuation for PLTR might be, I wanted to look at some of the most successful technology companies of the last few decades and use them as a benchmark for PLTR's future prospects. If PLTR has the potential to be the next Amazon, Google, or Facebook, I wanted to get more familiar with how those successful companies grew and performed over time and use that information to build a valuation framework for PLTR. I compiled the following data, with a particular focus on compound revenue growth rates over different time periods:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet Compiled from Company Filings)\nI wanted to look at the company's compound annual growth rate of revenue over a variety of time periods to try and get a sense of how growth rates changed as the companies matured and grew. I settled on the trailing revenue growth rates over the last five and ten years, as well as the growth rate since the company's IPO and the company's first ten years as a public company. I acknowledge that using rates based on IPO date doesn't take into account the size of the company when it went public. I realize that these companies all have different business models and are not perfect comparisons to PLTR. Finally, I understand P/E and P/S ratios are more subjective than the revenue growth values. All that being said, I think looking at the aggregate median values of the FAANGM stocks provides a good starting benchmark for revenue and profitability estimates.\nPalantir Valuation Scenarios\nUsing the data above, we can map out different valuation scenarios for PLTR, assuming that it performs as well as the median FAANGM company. This means we assume that PLTR eventually reaches a net margin of 22%, is awarded a P/E ratio of 36 by the market, and grows revenue at a compound rate between 24-45%. PLTR reported $1.1 billion in revenue for 2020 and at the time of this writing has a market cap of $54 billion. I take a long-term view in the following scenarios and assume an investor holds PLTR for ten years.\nWhat scenario to choose depends on what stage of growth you believe PLTR is currently in. Given that PLTR went public in the last year, we can start by treating PLTR as an early-stage company and use the FAANGM median growth rate over the first ten years as a public company (45%). In that case, Palantir's expected returns are above-average; an investor today would expect to earn an annual compounded return of 21% over the next ten years:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nAnother option is to use the median revenue growth rate since IPO, treating PLTR as a moderately mature company. In this case, we would use an annual revenue growth rate of 35%. Moving from a rate of 45% to 35% drops an investor's annual rate of return down to 12%, much closer to the historical market average.\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nFinally, we could treat PLTR as a mature (but still exceptional) company and use the median 10-year trailing revenue growth rate of 24%. This scenario results in negligible annual return for investors:\n(Source: Author's Spreadsheet)\nThe primary conclusion that I draw from these scenarios is that the market is pricing a lot of future success into PLTR's current market valuation. If we use the term \"fair value\" to mean the price at which at which a company is expected to deliver average market returns, then the market is saying that PLTR's fair value is that of a middle-aged FAANGM company. The market is already valuing PLTR as though it knows for sure that the company will be as successful as the median FAANGM stock. It is certainly possible that PLTR could exceed even these high expectations, but investors at today's share price need to be clear that the bar for PLTR's future performance is set very high.\nCaveats and Risks\nThere are two major caveats to the valuation scenarios in this article. First, we started with the assumption that PLTR will be as successful as the FAANGM companies. This is a very large assumption and is impacted by hindsight and survivorship bias. It was very difficult for the FAANGM companies to achieve the success they did, and there were many other promising companies that failed to reach that level of success despite early momentum. The valuation scenarios above suggest that even if we take PLTR's success as a given, the company is only expected to generate average or slightly above average returns over the next decade. Acknowledging that PLTR's success is not a given and adding some sort of discounting mechanism implies that the more probable outcome is below-average expected returns over the next decade.\nThe second caveat is that market sentiment is going to play an outsized role in the success or failure of a PLTR investment. The median P/E ratio of the FAANGM stocks is 36 today, but the max is a whopping 97 and there is no rule that says the market must assign earnings or sales ratios within any kind of range. I am confident that PTR's won't be earning $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, but I am less confident saying the market won't decide to give PLTR a P/E ratio of 200. On the other side of the coin, there is nothing stopping the market from growing pessimistic on PLTR's prospects and dropping the P/E ratio to 20, which would be a disaster for PLTR investors. All that to say I think it is possible to build a reasonable range of estimates for PLTR's financial performance over the next decade, but I have a much harder time estimating investor sentiment. PLTR shares could get bid up to $100/share next month and I would have no response to offer other than \"I think the market is wrong to be this optimistic.\"\nConclusion\nIt is a good exercise to translate growth expectations into quantitative valuation scenarios. PLTR has a great business model, but investors should still be wary of overpaying for the company. I think more traditional value investors (myself included) can fall into the trap of not appreciating how great a company can be in the future, even one that looks overvalued on a trailing basis. At the same time, I think growth investors can be too quick to ignore valuations once they have identified a promising company. I think PLTR has a bright future ahead of it, but the valuations above suggest that the stock will produce only slightly above average returns in the best scenarios and risk significant drawdowns if the company hits any bumps along the way or investor sentiment shifts. PLTR could be as big a success as Google or Apple and still disappoint investors over the long term. Despite the potential for above average returns, I don't think the risk/reward profile for PLTR is favorable and I will not be a buyer at the current share price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053123231,"gmtCreate":1654501095723,"gmtModify":1676535458453,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a>Sadded","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a>Sadded","text":"$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$Sadded","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/82e5c0be93ce8b8d24b5d2dac53fafd3","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053123231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9053123129,"gmtCreate":1654501041961,"gmtModify":1676535458444,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a> Up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/KR 20220610 54.0 CALL\">$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$</a> Up?","text":"$KR 20220610 54.0 CALL$ Up?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6e9ff439a265eed45850e3fabfdc4c93","width":"828","height":"1875"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053123129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013595976,"gmtCreate":1648742263319,"gmtModify":1676534389936,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>No","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>No","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013595976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121884561,"gmtCreate":1624458794453,"gmtModify":1703837427186,"author":{"id":"3562059790374112","authorId":"3562059790374112","name":"UserTrying","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b1b3a641e1eacf4cb92d052be3dc9a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"[Bless]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50aaba61419a43e201d44f26b071609d","width":"750","height":"2098"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121884561","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}