Bryantian personal page - To The Moon

Bryantian

Bryantian

请你不要再跟我说你长期持有这四个字

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10-01

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07-09

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2023-12-28

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","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166321935","repostId":"1100031548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031548","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623990608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031548?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 12:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"加息时间表提前，为何银行股不涨反跌？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031548","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日消息，周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中，富国银行跌超6%，美国银行跌超4%，花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%，高盛、摩根大","content":"<p>6月18日消息，周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中，富国银行跌超6%，美国银行跌超4%，花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%，高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cae82e2032f339dfdc96477048910e9\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧？原因很可能还是通胀。</p>\n<p>实际上，随着美国经济复苏，通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点，特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为，消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果，只会在短期存在。</p>\n<p>而加息通常发生在经济过热时，用作对抗通胀的工具。因此，联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着，美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。</p>\n<p>Aberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示，这不是市场预期的，而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。<b>美联储加息时间表提前，表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化，这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。</b></p>\n<p><b>毋庸置疑，加息利好银行股。</b>因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率，意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言，联邦基准利率上调1%，利息收入将增加数十亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但另一方面，通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求，</b>导致贷款金额不足，削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后，银行股的故事会如何演绎，尚不得而知。</p>\n<p>此前，中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现，<b>得出结论：银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。</b>需求端推动价格上行时，银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高，直到货币政策明显转向。<b>成本端推动价格上行时，银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益，但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>加息时间表提前，为何银行股不涨反跌？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n加息时间表提前，为何银行股不涨反跌？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 12:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月18日消息，周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中，富国银行跌超6%，美国银行跌超4%，花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%，高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cae82e2032f339dfdc96477048910e9\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧？原因很可能还是通胀。</p>\n<p>实际上，随着美国经济复苏，通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点，特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为，消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果，只会在短期存在。</p>\n<p>而加息通常发生在经济过热时，用作对抗通胀的工具。因此，联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着，美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。</p>\n<p>Aberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示，这不是市场预期的，而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。<b>美联储加息时间表提前，表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化，这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。</b></p>\n<p><b>毋庸置疑，加息利好银行股。</b>因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率，意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言，联邦基准利率上调1%，利息收入将增加数十亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但另一方面，通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求，</b>导致贷款金额不足，削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后，银行股的故事会如何演绎，尚不得而知。</p>\n<p>此前，中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现，<b>得出结论：银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。</b>需求端推动价格上行时，银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高，直到货币政策明显转向。<b>成本端推动价格上行时，银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益，但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69af882c29a3ff047224139fe1096d17","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行","BAC":"美国银行","C":"花旗","GS":"高盛","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031548","content_text":"6月18日消息，周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中，富国银行跌超6%，美国银行跌超4%，花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%，高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。\n\n是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧？原因很可能还是通胀。\n实际上，随着美国经济复苏，通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点，特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为，消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果，只会在短期存在。\n而加息通常发生在经济过热时，用作对抗通胀的工具。因此，联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着，美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。\nAberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示，这不是市场预期的，而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。美联储加息时间表提前，表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化，这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。\n毋庸置疑，加息利好银行股。因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率，意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言，联邦基准利率上调1%，利息收入将增加数十亿美元。\n但另一方面，通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求，导致贷款金额不足，削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后，银行股的故事会如何演绎，尚不得而知。\n此前，中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现，得出结论：银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。需求端推动价格上行时，银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高，直到货币政策明显转向。成本端推动价格上行时，银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益，但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959519115,"gmtCreate":1673019769538,"gmtModify":1676538770852,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":" . ","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hhhh","listText":"hhhh","text":"hhhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959519115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147234635,"gmtCreate":1626358885127,"gmtModify":1703758657130,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":" . ","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147234635","repostId":"1114416626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114416626","pubTimestamp":1626358249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114416626?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 22:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"短视频零和博弈：肥了用户，瘦了抖快","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114416626","media":"表外表里","summary":"“没想到真的能赚到钱！”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下，一网友激动地表示，自己通过邀请16名好友，已经获得了130元，预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路，并非极速","content":"<p>“没想到真的能赚到钱！”</p>\n<p>在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下，一网友激动地表示，自己通过邀请16名好友，已经获得了130元，预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe53178166226e827629fb027af1a2e\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路，并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年，趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式，击中了下沉市场用户的心扉，并籍此在两年后，叩开纳斯达克大门。</p>\n<p>趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式，启发了不少互联网公司，包括短视频两大巨头抖音、快手。</p>\n<p>2019年8月，快手、抖音先后推出面向下沉用户市场的“极速版”，由此拉开了补贴烧钱大战。</p>\n<p>拉新补贴持续到现在，尽管效果大不如前，但抖音、快手却陷入“砸钱没啥效果但不得不做”的怪圈。这是为何？</p>\n<p>本文将从用户和平台两方面，对短视频平台深陷“囚徒困境”的原因进行分析。</p>\n<p><b>1</b></p>\n<p><b>“薅羊毛”VS“羊毛出在猪身上”</b></p>\n<p>在“用户和平台，谁才是韭菜”这个问题上，双方的答案出奇地一致，那就是：对方。</p>\n<p>在用户看来，极速版短视频APP简直就是人傻钱多的“地主家傻儿子”，一旦进入，简直是“遍地羊毛任你薅”。</p>\n<p>就拿抖音极速版来说：</p>\n<p>首先是“邀请5位新朋友必得100元”——邀请第一位好友必得20元，第二位必得15元，以此类推；只要累计邀请5位新朋友，100元轻轻松松赚到手；若被邀请好友持续使用抖音极速版，还可以赚得更多。</p>\n<p>不仅如此，看视频也可以赚金币——使用前10天，每天看9分钟视频，就可获得25000金币（2.5元人民币），看得越多赚得越多。</p>\n<p>除此之外，签到，看广告、直播、小说都可以赚金币。</p>\n<p>事实上，结合我们对市面其他种极速版App活动补贴规则的调研，视频平台极速版的补贴力度，的确显著高于其他平台——拉新任务补贴力度最大，而且提现方式也较简单，对于空闲多、熟人多的下沉市场用户来说，赚个零花钱没什么难度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf594c372b33d38ff8186b0ee9131846\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而薅羊毛的不只用户，还有直接拿着“收割机”进场的黑产们：</p>\n<p>职业薅羊毛的人来了，购买数十台二手手机，装上运行脚本，可以自动刷极速版短视频，轻轻松松就能看视频得金币。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb5fe2c1318474a9d898fd01b61cb07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>羊毛薅得实在太猖狂，逼得平台出台防盗刷机制限制后，黑产又开始收割“羊毛党”：骗人入局、卖二手手机、卖刷视频脚本……</p>\n<p>更有甚者，通过违法盗用他人身份信息，然后办理新手机号来批量“拉新”，获得补贴。曾有媒体曝光，互联网黑产“拉新”5000人，获2万人民币收入的案例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409d3223e5741d57d3266e64cb3d7e8c\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而面对用户、黑产的花式薅羊毛，平台真就甘愿做被割的“韭菜”？&nbsp;当然不是，平台想的是怎么做到“羊毛出在猪身上”。</p>\n<p>对于短视频平台来说，极速版是拉新增长“灵丹妙药”。</p>\n<p>以快手为例，2019年8月快手极速版上线，就迅速成为快手产品的DAU增长的主要推手；与此同时，其用户使用时长也表现优秀，甚至比快手主站还高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c3d82eed5f486e0bdc66a8732df28a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>极速版能成为拉新增长的推动力，核心在于补贴——简单粗暴给钱的模式，游戏式收集金币的玩法刺激下，吸引了大量“有时间”、“贪便宜”的下沉市场用户。</p>\n<p>而花大价钱把用户拉进来，肯定不是为了给“羊毛党”做慈善。</p>\n<p>从调研来看，平台的目标是通过补贴，找到并留下真的愿意“看视频赚金币”的用户。接着，通过广告形式，对这些新增流量（当然也有老用户）进行变现。</p>\n<p>任务型广告，是极速版富有特色的广告类型——即看完广告可以领取金币奖励。</p>\n<p>以爱奇艺极速版为例，一次30s的广告，一天看5次最多获得500金币的规则，按照10000∶1的汇率，<b>用户观看最少50分钟的纯广告才会获得一元人民币的奖励</b>。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3fa49e482d2a3f67c9c0f1c84bfe7ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\"><span>备注：上为爱奇艺极速版，下为快手极速版</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>但由于极速版目标用户时间不值钱，抱着“有便宜就占”的心理，很容易受金币诱导点击广告。</p>\n<p>除了任务型广告外，还有信息流广告。</p>\n<p>事实上，快手和抖音在看单列视频的时候，也会有信息流广告出现，但在极速版视频浏览奖励金币机制下，用户对广告容忍度相对较高，这让极速版信息流通常有着比较高的Adload(加载率）。</p>\n<p>比如，快手极速版大概每6个视频中，可加载1个广告；相比之下，快手主站8~16个视频，才加载1个广告。</p>\n<p>如此一来，极速版短视频APP不仅形成了变现闭环：补贴拉新—补贴方式留下核心用户—补贴引导广告变现，而且信息流广告业务相较于主站，有着很大的想象空间。</p>\n<p>然而需要注意的是，这一切成立的前提，始终无法脱离“补贴”行为。</p>\n<p>一方面，拿了钱就走而不产生任何价值的纯“羊毛党”用户不在少数；另一方面，用户因补贴而来，也会因补贴而走，想要留住客户，就要不断加码补贴。</p>\n<p>长此以往，“补贴”或将从引流“利器”变成平台的负担。</p>\n<p><b>2</b></p>\n<p><b>补贴错过“踩刹车”时机，平台陷入囚徒困境</b></p>\n<p>从目前的业务表现看，这种补贴模式已经变得越来越“不划算”。</p>\n<p>数据显示，快手极速版2019年刚上线时，借助红包补贴的打法，在20天内迅速突破千万日活；抖音以类似的打法跟进，当年10月日活也达到了1300万。</p>\n<p>但现在，随着互联网用户红利见顶，花钱买“流量”的效果大打折扣。</p>\n<p>据悉，在2021年春晚独家红包合作中，狂撒12亿红包的抖音，主站以及极速版的日活，在春节期间并未有大的变化，整体DAU仍维持在6亿左右。</p>\n<p>但持续的红包“烧钱”举措，却在影响着平台的业绩。据字节跳动内部资料，公司2020年经营亏损达147亿。</p>\n<p>同样的问题也存在于快手身上——据快手财报披露：<i>2021Q1销售费用的增加，就主要用于快手极速版的推广。</i></p>\n<p>而这一定程度上“拖累”了快手的业绩表现。数据显示，2021Q1，快手的经营亏损扩大到72.92亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e41e300db282be35e388ae0813933277\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>那么，明知补贴对拉新已成“鸡肋”，为何抖音、快手还要扩大费用支出，甚至不惜“牺牲”业绩？这要从平台和用户两个维度说起。</p>\n<p>就平台层面而言，造成现在的局面，起因不乏管理层的一些“短视”行为。</p>\n<p>在互联网行业，用户基本盘通常是平台市场价值的锚定点。比如，BOSS直聘5000万美金的投前估值，是以每个DAU值1万美金的方式的；而今年年初，快手宣布全球月活破十亿时，股价应声上涨7-8个点。</p>\n<p>这样的市场偏好导向下，用户基本面是否“好看”就成为短视频平台的业绩衡量指标。而直接花钱拉新，无疑是最省力、也最快的捷径。</p>\n<p>比如，当时快手极速版的上线，除了防御抖音旗下火山短视频对快手市场份额的侵蚀，还肩负着向资本市场释放业务发展的利好信号，争取“好的上市估值”的任务。</p>\n<p>但这种拉新方式，由于会受到发展形势、竞争态势等变化的影响，导致惯性作用下容易失控，所以需要适时“踩刹车”（正常发展阶段，平台都会有一些补贴拉新的策略，不过随着拉新边际效用降低甚至出现负值时，是需要停掉的）。</p>\n<p>而短视频平台现阶段表现出来的情况似乎是：在国内用户增长逐渐停滞时，错过了踩刹车的机会。</p>\n<p>目前，短视频领域已经形成抖音、快手“双寡头”竞争格局。而在博弈论中，当模式相似、相互竞争的双寡头，“合作”的可能性不大时，很容易陷入竞争上的“囚徒困境”。</p>\n<p>这对标到红包补贴上理解就是，如果一方停下补贴，其之前拉新的用户，就会被另一个仍在补贴的平台“收割”。毕竟两家的内容差不多，有“利”可图的平台诱惑更大。</p>\n<p>基于此，为了避免用户被对方“收割”，双方都不敢轻易地停下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab78f0ba9d5bd73b2da5975aa9c4322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，有人会问，两家目前收益都大幅受损，已经讨不到“好”了，为什么不能达成共识，放弃补贴机制，结束“流血扩张”局面？</p>\n<p>答案是：垂涎这条捷径的不只快手、抖音两家。</p>\n<p>一旁对短视频领域“虎视眈眈”的腾讯微视，虽然用户规模尚小，但补贴节奏并不逊色。一旦快手、抖音停止烧钱，用户群体或将流向微视。</p>\n<p>这并非“空穴来风”的推测，而是红包补贴对应的用户群体特征即是如此。</p>\n<p>比如，今年春节期间，前期在预热活动的红包刺激下，快手极速版的下载量迅速提高，但这一增长在活动结束后出现了滑落；节后，抖音极速版也出现了类似情况。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c37a39860ca87dcfd50f9459648a28\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，据QM数据，今年五一期间，同样都采取了红包攻势，但抖音和快手在同比增速上，却有较大差距。</p>\n<p>究其原因或许在于：抖音发红包比快手更大方。如下图，快手每邀请一位好友（至少）赚15元，而抖音邀请首位好友，必得30元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff279536b22b328f9fb8db49d471d737\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看到，极速版平台的核心用户群体，本身就是受红包吸引而来。平台在他们眼里的价值彰显，不是内容，而是补贴。</p>\n<p>这决定了绝大部分用户，确实会跟着补贴走，而平台停止补贴，就相当于在将用户推向其他平台。</p>\n<p>综合来说，短视频下沉领域的竞争趋势和用户特性，让各平台的补贴大战陷入“两难”境地。要想打破这种局面，最有效的办法是大家都停止补贴增长策略。</p>\n<p>但达成这种行业性的共识，并非易事，至少，目前没有平台敢于迈出这第一步。</p>\n<p><b>小结</b></p>\n<p>早期，红包补贴作为行业发掘的、快速拉新的捷径，以“放血”让用户“薅羊毛”的方式，让一大批极速版平台，在短期内实现了用户规模的快速累积。</p>\n<p>用户开心，平台也开心。</p>\n<p>但现在，互联网流量红利见顶，补贴拉新“得不偿失”，可在囚徒困境竞争环境的“倒逼”下，平台仍要硬着头皮继续烧钱，“打落牙齿和血吞”，有口难言。</p>\n<p>因此，目前看来，靠补贴驱动用户拉新，短期内可能仍是主流，这或将进一步加重短视频行业的“内卷”。</p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>短视频零和博弈：肥了用户，瘦了抖快</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n短视频零和博弈：肥了用户，瘦了抖快\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 22:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg><strong>表外表里</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“没想到真的能赚到钱！”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下，一网友激动地表示，自己通过邀请16名好友，已经获得了130元，预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路，并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年，趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式，击中了下沉市场用户的心扉，并籍此在两年后，叩开纳斯达克大门。\n趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式，启发了不少互联网公司，包括...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bfca9cd29df3056f578f1d8c5ccd232","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114416626","content_text":"“没想到真的能赚到钱！”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下，一网友激动地表示，自己通过邀请16名好友，已经获得了130元，预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路，并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年，趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式，击中了下沉市场用户的心扉，并籍此在两年后，叩开纳斯达克大门。\n趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式，启发了不少互联网公司，包括短视频两大巨头抖音、快手。\n2019年8月，快手、抖音先后推出面向下沉用户市场的“极速版”，由此拉开了补贴烧钱大战。\n拉新补贴持续到现在，尽管效果大不如前，但抖音、快手却陷入“砸钱没啥效果但不得不做”的怪圈。这是为何？\n本文将从用户和平台两方面，对短视频平台深陷“囚徒困境”的原因进行分析。\n1\n“薅羊毛”VS“羊毛出在猪身上”\n在“用户和平台，谁才是韭菜”这个问题上，双方的答案出奇地一致，那就是：对方。\n在用户看来，极速版短视频APP简直就是人傻钱多的“地主家傻儿子”，一旦进入，简直是“遍地羊毛任你薅”。\n就拿抖音极速版来说：\n首先是“邀请5位新朋友必得100元”——邀请第一位好友必得20元，第二位必得15元，以此类推；只要累计邀请5位新朋友，100元轻轻松松赚到手；若被邀请好友持续使用抖音极速版，还可以赚得更多。\n不仅如此，看视频也可以赚金币——使用前10天，每天看9分钟视频，就可获得25000金币（2.5元人民币），看得越多赚得越多。\n除此之外，签到，看广告、直播、小说都可以赚金币。\n事实上，结合我们对市面其他种极速版App活动补贴规则的调研，视频平台极速版的补贴力度，的确显著高于其他平台——拉新任务补贴力度最大，而且提现方式也较简单，对于空闲多、熟人多的下沉市场用户来说，赚个零花钱没什么难度。\n\n而薅羊毛的不只用户，还有直接拿着“收割机”进场的黑产们：\n职业薅羊毛的人来了，购买数十台二手手机，装上运行脚本，可以自动刷极速版短视频，轻轻松松就能看视频得金币。\n\n羊毛薅得实在太猖狂，逼得平台出台防盗刷机制限制后，黑产又开始收割“羊毛党”：骗人入局、卖二手手机、卖刷视频脚本……\n更有甚者，通过违法盗用他人身份信息，然后办理新手机号来批量“拉新”，获得补贴。曾有媒体曝光，互联网黑产“拉新”5000人，获2万人民币收入的案例。\n\n然而面对用户、黑产的花式薅羊毛，平台真就甘愿做被割的“韭菜”？ 当然不是，平台想的是怎么做到“羊毛出在猪身上”。\n对于短视频平台来说，极速版是拉新增长“灵丹妙药”。\n以快手为例，2019年8月快手极速版上线，就迅速成为快手产品的DAU增长的主要推手；与此同时，其用户使用时长也表现优秀，甚至比快手主站还高。\n\n极速版能成为拉新增长的推动力，核心在于补贴——简单粗暴给钱的模式，游戏式收集金币的玩法刺激下，吸引了大量“有时间”、“贪便宜”的下沉市场用户。\n而花大价钱把用户拉进来，肯定不是为了给“羊毛党”做慈善。\n从调研来看，平台的目标是通过补贴，找到并留下真的愿意“看视频赚金币”的用户。接着，通过广告形式，对这些新增流量（当然也有老用户）进行变现。\n任务型广告，是极速版富有特色的广告类型——即看完广告可以领取金币奖励。\n以爱奇艺极速版为例，一次30s的广告，一天看5次最多获得500金币的规则，按照10000∶1的汇率，用户观看最少50分钟的纯广告才会获得一元人民币的奖励。\n备注：上为爱奇艺极速版，下为快手极速版\n\n但由于极速版目标用户时间不值钱，抱着“有便宜就占”的心理，很容易受金币诱导点击广告。\n除了任务型广告外，还有信息流广告。\n事实上，快手和抖音在看单列视频的时候，也会有信息流广告出现，但在极速版视频浏览奖励金币机制下，用户对广告容忍度相对较高，这让极速版信息流通常有着比较高的Adload(加载率）。\n比如，快手极速版大概每6个视频中，可加载1个广告；相比之下，快手主站8~16个视频，才加载1个广告。\n如此一来，极速版短视频APP不仅形成了变现闭环：补贴拉新—补贴方式留下核心用户—补贴引导广告变现，而且信息流广告业务相较于主站，有着很大的想象空间。\n然而需要注意的是，这一切成立的前提，始终无法脱离“补贴”行为。\n一方面，拿了钱就走而不产生任何价值的纯“羊毛党”用户不在少数；另一方面，用户因补贴而来，也会因补贴而走，想要留住客户，就要不断加码补贴。\n长此以往，“补贴”或将从引流“利器”变成平台的负担。\n2\n补贴错过“踩刹车”时机，平台陷入囚徒困境\n从目前的业务表现看，这种补贴模式已经变得越来越“不划算”。\n数据显示，快手极速版2019年刚上线时，借助红包补贴的打法，在20天内迅速突破千万日活；抖音以类似的打法跟进，当年10月日活也达到了1300万。\n但现在，随着互联网用户红利见顶，花钱买“流量”的效果大打折扣。\n据悉，在2021年春晚独家红包合作中，狂撒12亿红包的抖音，主站以及极速版的日活，在春节期间并未有大的变化，整体DAU仍维持在6亿左右。\n但持续的红包“烧钱”举措，却在影响着平台的业绩。据字节跳动内部资料，公司2020年经营亏损达147亿。\n同样的问题也存在于快手身上——据快手财报披露：2021Q1销售费用的增加，就主要用于快手极速版的推广。\n而这一定程度上“拖累”了快手的业绩表现。数据显示，2021Q1，快手的经营亏损扩大到72.92亿。\n\n那么，明知补贴对拉新已成“鸡肋”，为何抖音、快手还要扩大费用支出，甚至不惜“牺牲”业绩？这要从平台和用户两个维度说起。\n就平台层面而言，造成现在的局面，起因不乏管理层的一些“短视”行为。\n在互联网行业，用户基本盘通常是平台市场价值的锚定点。比如，BOSS直聘5000万美金的投前估值，是以每个DAU值1万美金的方式的；而今年年初，快手宣布全球月活破十亿时，股价应声上涨7-8个点。\n这样的市场偏好导向下，用户基本面是否“好看”就成为短视频平台的业绩衡量指标。而直接花钱拉新，无疑是最省力、也最快的捷径。\n比如，当时快手极速版的上线，除了防御抖音旗下火山短视频对快手市场份额的侵蚀，还肩负着向资本市场释放业务发展的利好信号，争取“好的上市估值”的任务。\n但这种拉新方式，由于会受到发展形势、竞争态势等变化的影响，导致惯性作用下容易失控，所以需要适时“踩刹车”（正常发展阶段，平台都会有一些补贴拉新的策略，不过随着拉新边际效用降低甚至出现负值时，是需要停掉的）。\n而短视频平台现阶段表现出来的情况似乎是：在国内用户增长逐渐停滞时，错过了踩刹车的机会。\n目前，短视频领域已经形成抖音、快手“双寡头”竞争格局。而在博弈论中，当模式相似、相互竞争的双寡头，“合作”的可能性不大时，很容易陷入竞争上的“囚徒困境”。\n这对标到红包补贴上理解就是，如果一方停下补贴，其之前拉新的用户，就会被另一个仍在补贴的平台“收割”。毕竟两家的内容差不多，有“利”可图的平台诱惑更大。\n基于此，为了避免用户被对方“收割”，双方都不敢轻易地停下。\n\n当然，有人会问，两家目前收益都大幅受损，已经讨不到“好”了，为什么不能达成共识，放弃补贴机制，结束“流血扩张”局面？\n答案是：垂涎这条捷径的不只快手、抖音两家。\n一旁对短视频领域“虎视眈眈”的腾讯微视，虽然用户规模尚小，但补贴节奏并不逊色。一旦快手、抖音停止烧钱，用户群体或将流向微视。\n这并非“空穴来风”的推测，而是红包补贴对应的用户群体特征即是如此。\n比如，今年春节期间，前期在预热活动的红包刺激下，快手极速版的下载量迅速提高，但这一增长在活动结束后出现了滑落；节后，抖音极速版也出现了类似情况。\n\n此外，据QM数据，今年五一期间，同样都采取了红包攻势，但抖音和快手在同比增速上，却有较大差距。\n究其原因或许在于：抖音发红包比快手更大方。如下图，快手每邀请一位好友（至少）赚15元，而抖音邀请首位好友，必得30元。\n\n可以看到，极速版平台的核心用户群体，本身就是受红包吸引而来。平台在他们眼里的价值彰显，不是内容，而是补贴。\n这决定了绝大部分用户，确实会跟着补贴走，而平台停止补贴，就相当于在将用户推向其他平台。\n综合来说，短视频下沉领域的竞争趋势和用户特性，让各平台的补贴大战陷入“两难”境地。要想打破这种局面，最有效的办法是大家都停止补贴增长策略。\n但达成这种行业性的共识，并非易事，至少，目前没有平台敢于迈出这第一步。\n小结\n早期，红包补贴作为行业发掘的、快速拉新的捷径，以“放血”让用户“薅羊毛”的方式，让一大批极速版平台，在短期内实现了用户规模的快速累积。\n用户开心，平台也开心。\n但现在，互联网流量红利见顶，补贴拉新“得不偿失”，可在囚徒困境竞争环境的“倒逼”下，平台仍要硬着头皮继续烧钱，“打落牙齿和血吞”，有口难言。\n因此，目前看来，靠补贴驱动用户拉新，短期内可能仍是主流，这或将进一步加重短视频行业的“内卷”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":238891291119792,"gmtCreate":1699360399524,"gmtModify":1699360406044,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n直线暴涨35%，传Carvana启动10亿美元债券的交换要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-22 20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月22日，美国二手汽车电商平台Carvana盘前涨超35%，报道称公司启动了高达10亿美元债券的交换要约。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b325274888350ca8612b0286494b863\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4214":"汽车零售"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156962911","content_text":"3月22日，美国二手汽车电商平台Carvana盘前涨超35%，报道称公司启动了高达10亿美元债券的交换要约。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}