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请你不要再跟我说你长期持有这四个字
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10-01
$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$
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09-26
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09-11
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07-09
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01-09
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01-08
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01-08
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01-05
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01-04
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01-03
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01-02
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01-01
tiger gogogo win win win
Bryantian
2023-12-28
Tiger gogogo winwinwin
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gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926703121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166321935,"gmtCreate":1623992672527,"gmtModify":1703825980471,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":"Bryantian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacd542609b53d5e0932897463021ab7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166321935","repostId":"1100031548","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100031548","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623990608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100031548?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 12:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"加息时间表提前,为何银行股不涨反跌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100031548","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日消息,周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后,美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中,富国银行跌超6%,美国银行跌超4%,花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%,高盛、摩根大","content":"<p>6月18日消息,周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后,美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中,富国银行跌超6%,美国银行跌超4%,花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%,高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cae82e2032f339dfdc96477048910e9\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧?原因很可能还是通胀。</p>\n<p>实际上,随着美国经济复苏,通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点,特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为,消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果,只会在短期存在。</p>\n<p>而加息通常发生在经济过热时,用作对抗通胀的工具。因此,联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着,美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。</p>\n<p>Aberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示,这不是市场预期的,而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。<b>美联储加息时间表提前,表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化,这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。</b></p>\n<p><b>毋庸置疑,加息利好银行股。</b>因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率,意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言,联邦基准利率上调1%,利息收入将增加数十亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但另一方面,通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求,</b>导致贷款金额不足,削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后,银行股的故事会如何演绎,尚不得而知。</p>\n<p>此前,中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现,<b>得出结论:银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。</b>需求端推动价格上行时,银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高,直到货币政策明显转向。<b>成本端推动价格上行时,银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益,但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>加息时间表提前,为何银行股不涨反跌?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n加息时间表提前,为何银行股不涨反跌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 12:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月18日消息,周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后,美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中,富国银行跌超6%,美国银行跌超4%,花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%,高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cae82e2032f339dfdc96477048910e9\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧?原因很可能还是通胀。</p>\n<p>实际上,随着美国经济复苏,通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点,特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为,消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果,只会在短期存在。</p>\n<p>而加息通常发生在经济过热时,用作对抗通胀的工具。因此,联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着,美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。</p>\n<p>Aberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示,这不是市场预期的,而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。<b>美联储加息时间表提前,表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化,这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。</b></p>\n<p><b>毋庸置疑,加息利好银行股。</b>因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率,意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言,联邦基准利率上调1%,利息收入将增加数十亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>但另一方面,通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求,</b>导致贷款金额不足,削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后,银行股的故事会如何演绎,尚不得而知。</p>\n<p>此前,中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现,<b>得出结论:银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。</b>需求端推动价格上行时,银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高,直到货币政策明显转向。<b>成本端推动价格上行时,银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益,但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69af882c29a3ff047224139fe1096d17","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行","BAC":"美国银行","GS":"高盛"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100031548","content_text":"6月18日消息,周四在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后,美国的银行股却“意外”大跌。其中,富国银行跌超6%,美国银行跌超4%,花旗、摩根士丹利跌超3%,高盛、摩根大通跌超2%。\n\n是什么导致市场对利好消息的解读成了担忧?原因很可能还是通胀。\n实际上,随着美国经济复苏,通胀一直就是市场关注的焦点,特别是对通胀是暂时还是长期的分歧一直很大。不少分析师认为,消费者价格上涨是美联储过度宽松和经济开放共同作用的结果,只会在短期存在。\n而加息通常发生在经济过热时,用作对抗通胀的工具。因此,联邦公开市场委员会暗示加息时间表提前或许意味着,美联储认为通胀更可能是一个长期的威胁。\nAberdeen Standard Investments经济学家James McCann在接受CNBC采访时表示,这不是市场预期的,而是美联储明确传达出来的信号。美联储加息时间表提前,表明其对通胀的看法已经发生变化,这与其此前声称通胀飙升只是暂时的说法自相矛盾。\n毋庸置疑,加息利好银行股。因为银行贷款利率会随着美联储基准利率上下波动。美联储提高基准利率,意味着银行可以从贷款和证券上获得更多的利息收入。对美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通而言,联邦基准利率上调1%,利息收入将增加数十亿美元。\n但另一方面,通胀的也会威胁企业的贷款需求,导致贷款金额不足,削弱银行赚钱能力。双重因素叠加后,银行股的故事会如何演绎,尚不得而知。\n此前,中泰证券复盘中美银行股在多轮通胀时期的表现,得出结论:银行股核心投资逻辑是宏观经济。需求端推动价格上行时,银行绝对和现对收益的持续时间和上行幅度较高,直到货币政策明显转向。成本端推动价格上行时,银行股在初期会保持正绝对和相对收益,但持续时间和力度均较弱。长期滞涨会压制银行估值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959519115,"gmtCreate":1673019769538,"gmtModify":1676538770852,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":"Bryantian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacd542609b53d5e0932897463021ab7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hhhh","listText":"hhhh","text":"hhhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959519115","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147234635,"gmtCreate":1626358885127,"gmtModify":1703758657130,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":"Bryantian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacd542609b53d5e0932897463021ab7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147234635","repostId":"1114416626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114416626","pubTimestamp":1626358249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114416626?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 22:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"短视频零和博弈:肥了用户,瘦了抖快","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114416626","media":"表外表里","summary":"“没想到真的能赚到钱!”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下,一网友激动地表示,自己通过邀请16名好友,已经获得了130元,预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路,并非极速","content":"<p>“没想到真的能赚到钱!”</p>\n<p>在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下,一网友激动地表示,自己通过邀请16名好友,已经获得了130元,预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe53178166226e827629fb027af1a2e\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"873\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路,并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年,趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式,击中了下沉市场用户的心扉,并籍此在两年后,叩开纳斯达克大门。</p>\n<p>趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式,启发了不少互联网公司,包括短视频两大巨头抖音、快手。</p>\n<p>2019年8月,快手、抖音先后推出面向下沉用户市场的“极速版”,由此拉开了补贴烧钱大战。</p>\n<p>拉新补贴持续到现在,尽管效果大不如前,但抖音、快手却陷入“砸钱没啥效果但不得不做”的怪圈。这是为何?</p>\n<p>本文将从用户和平台两方面,对短视频平台深陷“囚徒困境”的原因进行分析。</p>\n<p><b>1</b></p>\n<p><b>“薅羊毛”VS“羊毛出在猪身上”</b></p>\n<p>在“用户和平台,谁才是韭菜”这个问题上,双方的答案出奇地一致,那就是:对方。</p>\n<p>在用户看来,极速版短视频APP简直就是人傻钱多的“地主家傻儿子”,一旦进入,简直是“遍地羊毛任你薅”。</p>\n<p>就拿抖音极速版来说:</p>\n<p>首先是“邀请5位新朋友必得100元”——邀请第一位好友必得20元,第二位必得15元,以此类推;只要累计邀请5位新朋友,100元轻轻松松赚到手;若被邀请好友持续使用抖音极速版,还可以赚得更多。</p>\n<p>不仅如此,看视频也可以赚金币——使用前10天,每天看9分钟视频,就可获得25000金币(2.5元人民币),看得越多赚得越多。</p>\n<p>除此之外,签到,看广告、直播、小说都可以赚金币。</p>\n<p>事实上,结合我们对市面其他种极速版App活动补贴规则的调研,视频平台极速版的补贴力度,的确显著高于其他平台——拉新任务补贴力度最大,而且提现方式也较简单,对于空闲多、熟人多的下沉市场用户来说,赚个零花钱没什么难度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf594c372b33d38ff8186b0ee9131846\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而薅羊毛的不只用户,还有直接拿着“收割机”进场的黑产们:</p>\n<p>职业薅羊毛的人来了,购买数十台二手手机,装上运行脚本,可以自动刷极速版短视频,轻轻松松就能看视频得金币。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb5fe2c1318474a9d898fd01b61cb07\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>羊毛薅得实在太猖狂,逼得平台出台防盗刷机制限制后,黑产又开始收割“羊毛党”:骗人入局、卖二手手机、卖刷视频脚本……</p>\n<p>更有甚者,通过违法盗用他人身份信息,然后办理新手机号来批量“拉新”,获得补贴。曾有媒体曝光,互联网黑产“拉新”5000人,获2万人民币收入的案例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409d3223e5741d57d3266e64cb3d7e8c\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"906\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而面对用户、黑产的花式薅羊毛,平台真就甘愿做被割的“韭菜”? 当然不是,平台想的是怎么做到“羊毛出在猪身上”。</p>\n<p>对于短视频平台来说,极速版是拉新增长“灵丹妙药”。</p>\n<p>以快手为例,2019年8月快手极速版上线,就迅速成为快手产品的DAU增长的主要推手;与此同时,其用户使用时长也表现优秀,甚至比快手主站还高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c3d82eed5f486e0bdc66a8732df28a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>极速版能成为拉新增长的推动力,核心在于补贴——简单粗暴给钱的模式,游戏式收集金币的玩法刺激下,吸引了大量“有时间”、“贪便宜”的下沉市场用户。</p>\n<p>而花大价钱把用户拉进来,肯定不是为了给“羊毛党”做慈善。</p>\n<p>从调研来看,平台的目标是通过补贴,找到并留下真的愿意“看视频赚金币”的用户。接着,通过广告形式,对这些新增流量(当然也有老用户)进行变现。</p>\n<p>任务型广告,是极速版富有特色的广告类型——即看完广告可以领取金币奖励。</p>\n<p>以爱奇艺极速版为例,一次30s的广告,一天看5次最多获得500金币的规则,按照10000∶1的汇率,<b>用户观看最少50分钟的纯广告才会获得一元人民币的奖励</b>。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3fa49e482d2a3f67c9c0f1c84bfe7ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"641\"><span>备注:上为爱奇艺极速版,下为快手极速版</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>但由于极速版目标用户时间不值钱,抱着“有便宜就占”的心理,很容易受金币诱导点击广告。</p>\n<p>除了任务型广告外,还有信息流广告。</p>\n<p>事实上,快手和抖音在看单列视频的时候,也会有信息流广告出现,但在极速版视频浏览奖励金币机制下,用户对广告容忍度相对较高,这让极速版信息流通常有着比较高的Adload(加载率)。</p>\n<p>比如,快手极速版大概每6个视频中,可加载1个广告;相比之下,快手主站8~16个视频,才加载1个广告。</p>\n<p>如此一来,极速版短视频APP不仅形成了变现闭环:补贴拉新—补贴方式留下核心用户—补贴引导广告变现,而且信息流广告业务相较于主站,有着很大的想象空间。</p>\n<p>然而需要注意的是,这一切成立的前提,始终无法脱离“补贴”行为。</p>\n<p>一方面,拿了钱就走而不产生任何价值的纯“羊毛党”用户不在少数;另一方面,用户因补贴而来,也会因补贴而走,想要留住客户,就要不断加码补贴。</p>\n<p>长此以往,“补贴”或将从引流“利器”变成平台的负担。</p>\n<p><b>2</b></p>\n<p><b>补贴错过“踩刹车”时机,平台陷入囚徒困境</b></p>\n<p>从目前的业务表现看,这种补贴模式已经变得越来越“不划算”。</p>\n<p>数据显示,快手极速版2019年刚上线时,借助红包补贴的打法,在20天内迅速突破千万日活;抖音以类似的打法跟进,当年10月日活也达到了1300万。</p>\n<p>但现在,随着互联网用户红利见顶,花钱买“流量”的效果大打折扣。</p>\n<p>据悉,在2021年春晚独家红包合作中,狂撒12亿红包的抖音,主站以及极速版的日活,在春节期间并未有大的变化,整体DAU仍维持在6亿左右。</p>\n<p>但持续的红包“烧钱”举措,却在影响着平台的业绩。据字节跳动内部资料,公司2020年经营亏损达147亿。</p>\n<p>同样的问题也存在于快手身上——据快手财报披露:<i>2021Q1销售费用的增加,就主要用于快手极速版的推广。</i></p>\n<p>而这一定程度上“拖累”了快手的业绩表现。数据显示,2021Q1,快手的经营亏损扩大到72.92亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e41e300db282be35e388ae0813933277\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"678\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>那么,明知补贴对拉新已成“鸡肋”,为何抖音、快手还要扩大费用支出,甚至不惜“牺牲”业绩?这要从平台和用户两个维度说起。</p>\n<p>就平台层面而言,造成现在的局面,起因不乏管理层的一些“短视”行为。</p>\n<p>在互联网行业,用户基本盘通常是平台市场价值的锚定点。比如,BOSS直聘5000万美金的投前估值,是以每个DAU值1万美金的方式的;而今年年初,快手宣布全球月活破十亿时,股价应声上涨7-8个点。</p>\n<p>这样的市场偏好导向下,用户基本面是否“好看”就成为短视频平台的业绩衡量指标。而直接花钱拉新,无疑是最省力、也最快的捷径。</p>\n<p>比如,当时快手极速版的上线,除了防御抖音旗下火山短视频对快手市场份额的侵蚀,还肩负着向资本市场释放业务发展的利好信号,争取“好的上市估值”的任务。</p>\n<p>但这种拉新方式,由于会受到发展形势、竞争态势等变化的影响,导致惯性作用下容易失控,所以需要适时“踩刹车”(正常发展阶段,平台都会有一些补贴拉新的策略,不过随着拉新边际效用降低甚至出现负值时,是需要停掉的)。</p>\n<p>而短视频平台现阶段表现出来的情况似乎是:在国内用户增长逐渐停滞时,错过了踩刹车的机会。</p>\n<p>目前,短视频领域已经形成抖音、快手“双寡头”竞争格局。而在博弈论中,当模式相似、相互竞争的双寡头,“合作”的可能性不大时,很容易陷入竞争上的“囚徒困境”。</p>\n<p>这对标到红包补贴上理解就是,如果一方停下补贴,其之前拉新的用户,就会被另一个仍在补贴的平台“收割”。毕竟两家的内容差不多,有“利”可图的平台诱惑更大。</p>\n<p>基于此,为了避免用户被对方“收割”,双方都不敢轻易地停下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dab78f0ba9d5bd73b2da5975aa9c4322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然,有人会问,两家目前收益都大幅受损,已经讨不到“好”了,为什么不能达成共识,放弃补贴机制,结束“流血扩张”局面?</p>\n<p>答案是:垂涎这条捷径的不只快手、抖音两家。</p>\n<p>一旁对短视频领域“虎视眈眈”的腾讯微视,虽然用户规模尚小,但补贴节奏并不逊色。一旦快手、抖音停止烧钱,用户群体或将流向微视。</p>\n<p>这并非“空穴来风”的推测,而是红包补贴对应的用户群体特征即是如此。</p>\n<p>比如,今年春节期间,前期在预热活动的红包刺激下,快手极速版的下载量迅速提高,但这一增长在活动结束后出现了滑落;节后,抖音极速版也出现了类似情况。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c37a39860ca87dcfd50f9459648a28\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外,据QM数据,今年五一期间,同样都采取了红包攻势,但抖音和快手在同比增速上,却有较大差距。</p>\n<p>究其原因或许在于:抖音发红包比快手更大方。如下图,快手每邀请一位好友(至少)赚15元,而抖音邀请首位好友,必得30元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff279536b22b328f9fb8db49d471d737\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看到,极速版平台的核心用户群体,本身就是受红包吸引而来。平台在他们眼里的价值彰显,不是内容,而是补贴。</p>\n<p>这决定了绝大部分用户,确实会跟着补贴走,而平台停止补贴,就相当于在将用户推向其他平台。</p>\n<p>综合来说,短视频下沉领域的竞争趋势和用户特性,让各平台的补贴大战陷入“两难”境地。要想打破这种局面,最有效的办法是大家都停止补贴增长策略。</p>\n<p>但达成这种行业性的共识,并非易事,至少,目前没有平台敢于迈出这第一步。</p>\n<p><b>小结</b></p>\n<p>早期,红包补贴作为行业发掘的、快速拉新的捷径,以“放血”让用户“薅羊毛”的方式,让一大批极速版平台,在短期内实现了用户规模的快速累积。</p>\n<p>用户开心,平台也开心。</p>\n<p>但现在,互联网流量红利见顶,补贴拉新“得不偿失”,可在囚徒困境竞争环境的“倒逼”下,平台仍要硬着头皮继续烧钱,“打落牙齿和血吞”,有口难言。</p>\n<p>因此,目前看来,靠补贴驱动用户拉新,短期内可能仍是主流,这或将进一步加重短视频行业的“内卷”。</p>","source":"lsy1573719481907","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>短视频零和博弈:肥了用户,瘦了抖快</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n短视频零和博弈:肥了用户,瘦了抖快\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 22:10 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg><strong>表外表里</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“没想到真的能赚到钱!”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下,一网友激动地表示,自己通过邀请16名好友,已经获得了130元,预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路,并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年,趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式,击中了下沉市场用户的心扉,并籍此在两年后,叩开纳斯达克大门。\n趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式,启发了不少互联网公司,包括...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bfca9cd29df3056f578f1d8c5ccd232","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QfK00apZ-nR_S8B4zBYdpg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114416626","content_text":"“没想到真的能赚到钱!”\n在知乎“极速版真的能赚到钱吗”问题下,一网友激动地表示,自己通过邀请16名好友,已经获得了130元,预估总收益甚至可以达到640元。\n\n这种通过APP“赚钱”的套路,并非极速版短视频独创。早在2016年,趣头条APP就通过“看资讯就能赚钱”的商业模式,击中了下沉市场用户的心扉,并籍此在两年后,叩开纳斯达克大门。\n趣头条这种简单粗暴的砸钱获客方式,启发了不少互联网公司,包括短视频两大巨头抖音、快手。\n2019年8月,快手、抖音先后推出面向下沉用户市场的“极速版”,由此拉开了补贴烧钱大战。\n拉新补贴持续到现在,尽管效果大不如前,但抖音、快手却陷入“砸钱没啥效果但不得不做”的怪圈。这是为何?\n本文将从用户和平台两方面,对短视频平台深陷“囚徒困境”的原因进行分析。\n1\n“薅羊毛”VS“羊毛出在猪身上”\n在“用户和平台,谁才是韭菜”这个问题上,双方的答案出奇地一致,那就是:对方。\n在用户看来,极速版短视频APP简直就是人傻钱多的“地主家傻儿子”,一旦进入,简直是“遍地羊毛任你薅”。\n就拿抖音极速版来说:\n首先是“邀请5位新朋友必得100元”——邀请第一位好友必得20元,第二位必得15元,以此类推;只要累计邀请5位新朋友,100元轻轻松松赚到手;若被邀请好友持续使用抖音极速版,还可以赚得更多。\n不仅如此,看视频也可以赚金币——使用前10天,每天看9分钟视频,就可获得25000金币(2.5元人民币),看得越多赚得越多。\n除此之外,签到,看广告、直播、小说都可以赚金币。\n事实上,结合我们对市面其他种极速版App活动补贴规则的调研,视频平台极速版的补贴力度,的确显著高于其他平台——拉新任务补贴力度最大,而且提现方式也较简单,对于空闲多、熟人多的下沉市场用户来说,赚个零花钱没什么难度。\n\n而薅羊毛的不只用户,还有直接拿着“收割机”进场的黑产们:\n职业薅羊毛的人来了,购买数十台二手手机,装上运行脚本,可以自动刷极速版短视频,轻轻松松就能看视频得金币。\n\n羊毛薅得实在太猖狂,逼得平台出台防盗刷机制限制后,黑产又开始收割“羊毛党”:骗人入局、卖二手手机、卖刷视频脚本……\n更有甚者,通过违法盗用他人身份信息,然后办理新手机号来批量“拉新”,获得补贴。曾有媒体曝光,互联网黑产“拉新”5000人,获2万人民币收入的案例。\n\n然而面对用户、黑产的花式薅羊毛,平台真就甘愿做被割的“韭菜”? 当然不是,平台想的是怎么做到“羊毛出在猪身上”。\n对于短视频平台来说,极速版是拉新增长“灵丹妙药”。\n以快手为例,2019年8月快手极速版上线,就迅速成为快手产品的DAU增长的主要推手;与此同时,其用户使用时长也表现优秀,甚至比快手主站还高。\n\n极速版能成为拉新增长的推动力,核心在于补贴——简单粗暴给钱的模式,游戏式收集金币的玩法刺激下,吸引了大量“有时间”、“贪便宜”的下沉市场用户。\n而花大价钱把用户拉进来,肯定不是为了给“羊毛党”做慈善。\n从调研来看,平台的目标是通过补贴,找到并留下真的愿意“看视频赚金币”的用户。接着,通过广告形式,对这些新增流量(当然也有老用户)进行变现。\n任务型广告,是极速版富有特色的广告类型——即看完广告可以领取金币奖励。\n以爱奇艺极速版为例,一次30s的广告,一天看5次最多获得500金币的规则,按照10000∶1的汇率,用户观看最少50分钟的纯广告才会获得一元人民币的奖励。\n备注:上为爱奇艺极速版,下为快手极速版\n\n但由于极速版目标用户时间不值钱,抱着“有便宜就占”的心理,很容易受金币诱导点击广告。\n除了任务型广告外,还有信息流广告。\n事实上,快手和抖音在看单列视频的时候,也会有信息流广告出现,但在极速版视频浏览奖励金币机制下,用户对广告容忍度相对较高,这让极速版信息流通常有着比较高的Adload(加载率)。\n比如,快手极速版大概每6个视频中,可加载1个广告;相比之下,快手主站8~16个视频,才加载1个广告。\n如此一来,极速版短视频APP不仅形成了变现闭环:补贴拉新—补贴方式留下核心用户—补贴引导广告变现,而且信息流广告业务相较于主站,有着很大的想象空间。\n然而需要注意的是,这一切成立的前提,始终无法脱离“补贴”行为。\n一方面,拿了钱就走而不产生任何价值的纯“羊毛党”用户不在少数;另一方面,用户因补贴而来,也会因补贴而走,想要留住客户,就要不断加码补贴。\n长此以往,“补贴”或将从引流“利器”变成平台的负担。\n2\n补贴错过“踩刹车”时机,平台陷入囚徒困境\n从目前的业务表现看,这种补贴模式已经变得越来越“不划算”。\n数据显示,快手极速版2019年刚上线时,借助红包补贴的打法,在20天内迅速突破千万日活;抖音以类似的打法跟进,当年10月日活也达到了1300万。\n但现在,随着互联网用户红利见顶,花钱买“流量”的效果大打折扣。\n据悉,在2021年春晚独家红包合作中,狂撒12亿红包的抖音,主站以及极速版的日活,在春节期间并未有大的变化,整体DAU仍维持在6亿左右。\n但持续的红包“烧钱”举措,却在影响着平台的业绩。据字节跳动内部资料,公司2020年经营亏损达147亿。\n同样的问题也存在于快手身上——据快手财报披露:2021Q1销售费用的增加,就主要用于快手极速版的推广。\n而这一定程度上“拖累”了快手的业绩表现。数据显示,2021Q1,快手的经营亏损扩大到72.92亿。\n\n那么,明知补贴对拉新已成“鸡肋”,为何抖音、快手还要扩大费用支出,甚至不惜“牺牲”业绩?这要从平台和用户两个维度说起。\n就平台层面而言,造成现在的局面,起因不乏管理层的一些“短视”行为。\n在互联网行业,用户基本盘通常是平台市场价值的锚定点。比如,BOSS直聘5000万美金的投前估值,是以每个DAU值1万美金的方式的;而今年年初,快手宣布全球月活破十亿时,股价应声上涨7-8个点。\n这样的市场偏好导向下,用户基本面是否“好看”就成为短视频平台的业绩衡量指标。而直接花钱拉新,无疑是最省力、也最快的捷径。\n比如,当时快手极速版的上线,除了防御抖音旗下火山短视频对快手市场份额的侵蚀,还肩负着向资本市场释放业务发展的利好信号,争取“好的上市估值”的任务。\n但这种拉新方式,由于会受到发展形势、竞争态势等变化的影响,导致惯性作用下容易失控,所以需要适时“踩刹车”(正常发展阶段,平台都会有一些补贴拉新的策略,不过随着拉新边际效用降低甚至出现负值时,是需要停掉的)。\n而短视频平台现阶段表现出来的情况似乎是:在国内用户增长逐渐停滞时,错过了踩刹车的机会。\n目前,短视频领域已经形成抖音、快手“双寡头”竞争格局。而在博弈论中,当模式相似、相互竞争的双寡头,“合作”的可能性不大时,很容易陷入竞争上的“囚徒困境”。\n这对标到红包补贴上理解就是,如果一方停下补贴,其之前拉新的用户,就会被另一个仍在补贴的平台“收割”。毕竟两家的内容差不多,有“利”可图的平台诱惑更大。\n基于此,为了避免用户被对方“收割”,双方都不敢轻易地停下。\n\n当然,有人会问,两家目前收益都大幅受损,已经讨不到“好”了,为什么不能达成共识,放弃补贴机制,结束“流血扩张”局面?\n答案是:垂涎这条捷径的不只快手、抖音两家。\n一旁对短视频领域“虎视眈眈”的腾讯微视,虽然用户规模尚小,但补贴节奏并不逊色。一旦快手、抖音停止烧钱,用户群体或将流向微视。\n这并非“空穴来风”的推测,而是红包补贴对应的用户群体特征即是如此。\n比如,今年春节期间,前期在预热活动的红包刺激下,快手极速版的下载量迅速提高,但这一增长在活动结束后出现了滑落;节后,抖音极速版也出现了类似情况。\n\n此外,据QM数据,今年五一期间,同样都采取了红包攻势,但抖音和快手在同比增速上,却有较大差距。\n究其原因或许在于:抖音发红包比快手更大方。如下图,快手每邀请一位好友(至少)赚15元,而抖音邀请首位好友,必得30元。\n\n可以看到,极速版平台的核心用户群体,本身就是受红包吸引而来。平台在他们眼里的价值彰显,不是内容,而是补贴。\n这决定了绝大部分用户,确实会跟着补贴走,而平台停止补贴,就相当于在将用户推向其他平台。\n综合来说,短视频下沉领域的竞争趋势和用户特性,让各平台的补贴大战陷入“两难”境地。要想打破这种局面,最有效的办法是大家都停止补贴增长策略。\n但达成这种行业性的共识,并非易事,至少,目前没有平台敢于迈出这第一步。\n小结\n早期,红包补贴作为行业发掘的、快速拉新的捷径,以“放血”让用户“薅羊毛”的方式,让一大批极速版平台,在短期内实现了用户规模的快速累积。\n用户开心,平台也开心。\n但现在,互联网流量红利见顶,补贴拉新“得不偿失”,可在囚徒困境竞争环境的“倒逼”下,平台仍要硬着头皮继续烧钱,“打落牙齿和血吞”,有口难言。\n因此,目前看来,靠补贴驱动用户拉新,短期内可能仍是主流,这或将进一步加重短视频行业的“内卷”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":238891291119792,"gmtCreate":1699360399524,"gmtModify":1699360406044,"author":{"id":"3562240180202268","authorId":"3562240180202268","name":"Bryantian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eacd542609b53d5e0932897463021ab7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562240180202268","authorIdStr":"3562240180202268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tiger 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月22日,美国二手汽车电商平台Carvana盘前涨超35%,报道称公司启动了高达10亿美元债券的交换要约。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b325274888350ca8612b0286494b863\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"CVNA":"Carvana Co.","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4214":"汽车零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156962911","content_text":"3月22日,美国二手汽车电商平台Carvana盘前涨超35%,报道称公司启动了高达10亿美元债券的交换要约。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}