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RUMBLE
2024-03-15
$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$
RUMBLE
2021-06-21
l
@华商韬略:國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧
RUMBLE
2021-04-29
Nothing new ?
When will the Federal Reserve taper QE?
RUMBLE
2021-03-03
??
After being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.
RUMBLE
2021-02-24
Great!!!
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Go to Tiger App to see more news
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$ </a> ","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284534079942960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164552265,"gmtCreate":1624231241057,"gmtModify":1703830852481,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"l","listText":"l","text":"l","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164552265","repostId":"164635550","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":164635550,"gmtCreate":1624193580000,"gmtModify":1703830515266,"author":{"id":"3524105760314666","authorId":"3524105760314666","name":"华商韬略","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbcbbcdfdd125576e4d9038a38b0dc86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105760314666","authorIdStr":"3524105760314666"},"themes":[],"title":"國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧","htmlText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","listText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","text":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85564b62f87f4858884908d247e13eb4","width":"640","height":"174"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b18741afe04fd9a856df4d7d257d13","width":"1080","height":"723"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fee16ce0ab84269abca3544290215ea","width":"1080","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164635550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109804596,"gmtCreate":1619679802215,"gmtModify":1704727883838,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nothing new ?","listText":"Nothing new ?","text":"Nothing new ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109804596","repostId":"1199597620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199597620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619678199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199597620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the Federal Reserve taper QE?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199597620","media":" 明晰笔谈","summary":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大","content":"<p><b>Core Points</b></p><p><b>Early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. Regarding interest rate tools, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all committee members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement maintained the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1% and the discount rate at 0.25%. Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and CMBS as needed, and continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation remains below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation is rising, primarily reflecting temporary factors,\" making some adjustments based on the minutes of its March policy meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic,</b>The overall pandemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.<b>In terms of employment,</b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March exceeded expectations and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.<b>Regarding inflation,</b>The low base resulting from the pandemic in the same period last year drove up US inflation year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the expectation of a continuous rise in inflation has been realized to some extent.<b>In terms of consumption,</b>The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>Both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a new high since January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in U.S. investment.<b>Regarding economic prosperity,</b>Both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</p><p><b>Commentary: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become even more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.<b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but some aspects of the stock market do indicate a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect a reduction in the scale of bond purchases to occur around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not actually take action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance:</b>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Interest rate meeting results</b></p><p><b>Regarding interest rate instruments,</b>At this Federal Reserve policy meeting, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all members. The Fed reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, continuing to hold rates steady, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>Regarding asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted rate of 0.00%, setting a daily trading limit of US$80 billion per party; Continue to conduct repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the stable operation of the short-term US dollar money market.</p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>The Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, primarily reflecting temporary factors.\" The phrase \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" has been changed to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook still faces risks,\" significantly mitigating the semantic implications. Reiterating the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment remains accommodative\"; Overall, some adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete, and further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected. The sectors most affected by the pandemic have improved, and there is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent scars on the job market. The level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously feared has not been seen. Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and rising spending stimulates prices, which may be temporary. Before achieving the (dual) goal, interest rates near zero are appropriate, and now is not the time to start talking about reducing the scale of bond purchases. Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable.</b></p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>Powell stated that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete; The annual PCE rate is expected to exceed 2%; Economic activity has only recently rebounded, and it will take some time to reach the standard; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong recovery in the labor market; Inflation expectations have returned to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly above the levels of the past few decades; We hope that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be close to the target level. We will closely monitor inflation expectations. It is indeed expected that short-term interest rates will face further downward pressure.</p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic,</b>Powell stated that there has been improvement in the areas most affected by the pandemic; For the economic recovery to make substantial progress, significant progress will also be made in addressing the pandemic. There is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and we have not seen the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that we had previously feared.</p><p><b>On employment and inflation,</b>Powell stated that labor market conditions continue to improve, but the unemployment rate remains high; Before the slowdown occurred, inflation rose further to some extent; Increased spending stimulating prices may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise; There is still a long way to go before full employment; If inflation expectations are indeed higher than 2%, tools will be used to lower them; A one-off price increase is unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding monetary policy,</b>Powell stated that keeping interest rates close to zero is appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards; Now is not the time to start talking about scaling back bond purchases; The Federal Reserve will do its best to support economic recovery if needed; If necessary, tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate; There is currently no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER).</p><p><b>Regarding financial stability</b>Powell stated that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices raise concerns about financial stability. The risk of Archegos' margin call event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should understand market risks; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos warehouse liquidation event; The prices of some assets are high; Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Money market funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not a systemic problem.</p><p><b>US recent fundamentals</b></p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic, the overall situation in the United States has remained relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.</b>Since March of this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 per day, maintaining an overall stable performance. The pandemic has been brought under control mainly due to Biden's stricter pandemic prevention measures since taking office, coupled with the rapid widespread adoption of vaccinations in the United States: as of April 27, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that 232 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% of the population aged 65 and above had been administered. The number of vaccinations per 100 people reached 69 doses, which is relatively leading globally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social distancing regulations, allowing people who have been vaccinated to go outdoors without wearing masks, indicating that the widespread availability of vaccines is paving the way for the United States to ease travel restrictions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.</b>Looking at the data changes, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 916,000 in March, compared with the expected 647,000 and the previous value of 379,000. Since January of this year, the number of new non-farm payrolls has been increasing month by month, and the pace of improvement has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated pace of vaccination in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus policy has also provided funds for enterprises to help the job market recover. By sector, the industries that contributed the most to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hospitality industry, government departments, construction, and education and healthcare services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Regarding inflation, the low base caused by the pandemic last year drove US inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the continuously rising inflation expectations were realized to some extent.</b>In March, the US CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from 1.7% in the previous month. The core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from 1.3% in the previous month. The low base effect caused by the impact of the pandemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the US year-on-year inflation reading in March. The US CPI was -1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year in April and June last year, respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current US inflation has entered a high reading phase in the second quarter. Looking at the CPI sub-items, the energy sub-item that had the strongest year-on-year driving effect on the US CPI in March was the energy sub-item, with the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI sub-item reaching 13.2% in March, a significant increase compared to 2.4% in February. In addition, the food and beverage and transportation sectors of the US CPI also had a strong driving effect in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>On the consumption side, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales reached $619.1 billion in March, marking another record high since January of this year, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.72% and a month-over-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the strong consumption data in March may be the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the easing of regulations brought about by the stabilization of the epidemic. Regarding consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that US consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still considerable room for improvement in absolute terms compared to before the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a record high again after January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in US investment.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods reached $256.3 billion in March, up 25.02% year-over-year and 0.55% month-over-month. The main reason for the high year-over-year growth was the low base in the same period last year. In March, seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached $174.4 billion, up 12.82% year-on-year and 1.62% month-on-month, marking another record high since January of this year. Data on new durable goods orders shows that U.S. investment continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic sentiment, both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery has accelerated under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations at 64.7, the highest since December 1982, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 63.7, the highest since August 2005. Specifically, in the manufacturing sector, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new orders index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run at a high level above 60. The customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only sub-item in the manufacturing PMI in March that was below the expansion/contraction threshold. In the non-manufacturing sector, the price index, business activity index, new orders index, and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, at 74.0, 69.4, 67.2, and 61.0 respectively, with all sub-items above the expansion/contraction line. The better-than-expected US March PMI reflects the accelerated recovery of the US economy under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous increase in US vaccination rates, the US economic climate is expected to continue its recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but certain situations in the stock market do indeed reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect to take action to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not take real action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year. The specifics will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and the improvement of the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the Federal Reserve taper QE?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the Federal Reserve taper QE?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core Points</b></p><p><b>Early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. Regarding interest rate tools, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all committee members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement maintained the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1% and the discount rate at 0.25%. Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and CMBS as needed, and continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation remains below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation is rising, primarily reflecting temporary factors,\" making some adjustments based on the minutes of its March policy meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic,</b>The overall pandemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.<b>In terms of employment,</b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March exceeded expectations and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.<b>Regarding inflation,</b>The low base resulting from the pandemic in the same period last year drove up US inflation year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the expectation of a continuous rise in inflation has been realized to some extent.<b>In terms of consumption,</b>The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>Both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a new high since January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in U.S. investment.<b>Regarding economic prosperity,</b>Both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</p><p><b>Commentary: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become even more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.<b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but some aspects of the stock market do indicate a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect a reduction in the scale of bond purchases to occur around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not actually take action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance:</b>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Interest rate meeting results</b></p><p><b>Regarding interest rate instruments,</b>At this Federal Reserve policy meeting, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all members. The Fed reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, continuing to hold rates steady, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>Regarding asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted rate of 0.00%, setting a daily trading limit of US$80 billion per party; Continue to conduct repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the stable operation of the short-term US dollar money market.</p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>The Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, primarily reflecting temporary factors.\" The phrase \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" has been changed to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook still faces risks,\" significantly mitigating the semantic implications. Reiterating the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment remains accommodative\"; Overall, some adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete, and further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected. The sectors most affected by the pandemic have improved, and there is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent scars on the job market. The level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously feared has not been seen. Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and rising spending stimulates prices, which may be temporary. Before achieving the (dual) goal, interest rates near zero are appropriate, and now is not the time to start talking about reducing the scale of bond purchases. Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable.</b></p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>Powell stated that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete; The annual PCE rate is expected to exceed 2%; Economic activity has only recently rebounded, and it will take some time to reach the standard; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong recovery in the labor market; Inflation expectations have returned to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly above the levels of the past few decades; We hope that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be close to the target level. We will closely monitor inflation expectations. It is indeed expected that short-term interest rates will face further downward pressure.</p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic,</b>Powell stated that there has been improvement in the areas most affected by the pandemic; For the economic recovery to make substantial progress, significant progress will also be made in addressing the pandemic. There is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and we have not seen the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that we had previously feared.</p><p><b>On employment and inflation,</b>Powell stated that labor market conditions continue to improve, but the unemployment rate remains high; Before the slowdown occurred, inflation rose further to some extent; Increased spending stimulating prices may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise; There is still a long way to go before full employment; If inflation expectations are indeed higher than 2%, tools will be used to lower them; A one-off price increase is unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding monetary policy,</b>Powell stated that keeping interest rates close to zero is appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards; Now is not the time to start talking about scaling back bond purchases; The Federal Reserve will do its best to support economic recovery if needed; If necessary, tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate; There is currently no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER).</p><p><b>Regarding financial stability</b>Powell stated that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices raise concerns about financial stability. The risk of Archegos' margin call event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should understand market risks; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos warehouse liquidation event; The prices of some assets are high; Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Money market funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not a systemic problem.</p><p><b>US recent fundamentals</b></p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic, the overall situation in the United States has remained relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.</b>Since March of this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 per day, maintaining an overall stable performance. The pandemic has been brought under control mainly due to Biden's stricter pandemic prevention measures since taking office, coupled with the rapid widespread adoption of vaccinations in the United States: as of April 27, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that 232 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% of the population aged 65 and above had been administered. The number of vaccinations per 100 people reached 69 doses, which is relatively leading globally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social distancing regulations, allowing people who have been vaccinated to go outdoors without wearing masks, indicating that the widespread availability of vaccines is paving the way for the United States to ease travel restrictions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.</b>Looking at the data changes, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 916,000 in March, compared with the expected 647,000 and the previous value of 379,000. Since January of this year, the number of new non-farm payrolls has been increasing month by month, and the pace of improvement has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated pace of vaccination in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus policy has also provided funds for enterprises to help the job market recover. By sector, the industries that contributed the most to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hospitality industry, government departments, construction, and education and healthcare services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Regarding inflation, the low base caused by the pandemic last year drove US inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the continuously rising inflation expectations were realized to some extent.</b>In March, the US CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from 1.7% in the previous month. The core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from 1.3% in the previous month. The low base effect caused by the impact of the pandemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the US year-on-year inflation reading in March. The US CPI was -1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year in April and June last year, respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current US inflation has entered a high reading phase in the second quarter. Looking at the CPI sub-items, the energy sub-item that had the strongest year-on-year driving effect on the US CPI in March was the energy sub-item, with the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI sub-item reaching 13.2% in March, a significant increase compared to 2.4% in February. In addition, the food and beverage and transportation sectors of the US CPI also had a strong driving effect in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>On the consumption side, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales reached $619.1 billion in March, marking another record high since January of this year, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.72% and a month-over-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the strong consumption data in March may be the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the easing of regulations brought about by the stabilization of the epidemic. Regarding consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that US consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still considerable room for improvement in absolute terms compared to before the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a record high again after January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in US investment.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods reached $256.3 billion in March, up 25.02% year-over-year and 0.55% month-over-month. The main reason for the high year-over-year growth was the low base in the same period last year. In March, seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached $174.4 billion, up 12.82% year-on-year and 1.62% month-on-month, marking another record high since January of this year. Data on new durable goods orders shows that U.S. investment continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic sentiment, both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery has accelerated under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations at 64.7, the highest since December 1982, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 63.7, the highest since August 2005. Specifically, in the manufacturing sector, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new orders index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run at a high level above 60. The customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only sub-item in the manufacturing PMI in March that was below the expansion/contraction threshold. In the non-manufacturing sector, the price index, business activity index, new orders index, and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, at 74.0, 69.4, 67.2, and 61.0 respectively, with all sub-items above the expansion/contraction line. The better-than-expected US March PMI reflects the accelerated recovery of the US economy under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous increase in US vaccination rates, the US economic climate is expected to continue its recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but certain situations in the stock market do indeed reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect to take action to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not take real action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year. The specifics will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and the improvement of the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w\"> 明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199597620","content_text":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。美联储FOMC声明将超额准备金率（IOER）维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变。资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据需要增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，继续进行隔夜逆回购和回购操作。经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”，在今年3月的议息会议纪要的基础上做出了一定调整。\n美国近期基本面：疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。通胀方面，去年同期疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得新高，美国投资状况温和回升。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。\n点评：美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，后续随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计减少购债规模的行动可能于年底前后发生，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现：美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次美联储议息会议上，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。超额准备金率（IOER）将维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；继续进行报价利率为0.00%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，设定每天每方交易限额为800亿美元；继续进行回购操作以支持有效的政策实施，维护短期美元资金市场的平稳运行。\n经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然薄弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”；将“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济活动、就业和通货膨胀带来了压力，并给经济前景带来相当大的风险”修改为“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济带来了压力，经济前景仍然面临风险”，语义显著缓和；重申“经济发展的道路将在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播过程，包括疫苗接种的进展”“总体金融环境维持宽松”等观点；整体上在今年3月的议息会议纪要基础上做出了一定调整。\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力；受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善，非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤痕，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平；劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企，支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示，复苏仍然不平衡、不完整；PCE年率预计将超过2%；经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间；需要一段时间才能上调通胀预期，预计这将伴随着劳动力市场的强劲复苏；通胀预期回归到2018年和2014年左右的水平；希望通胀预期上升，并稍高于过去几十年的水平；希望通胀预期牢固控制在2%，损益平衡通胀率很接近目标水平，会密切关注通胀预期；确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力。\n疫情方面，鲍威尔表示，受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善；经济复苏要取得实质性的进展，也将在疫情方面取得重大进展；非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤害，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平。\n就业与通胀方面，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企；在出现放缓之前，某种程度上通胀出现进一步的上升；支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升；离充分就业还有很长的路要走；如果通胀预期真的高于2%的水平，就会使用工具将其降下来；一次性物价上涨不太可能导致持续的通胀。\n货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的；今年通胀的暂时上升不符合加息的标准；现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；如有需要，美联储将尽力支持经济复苏；如有需要，将使用工具来支持联邦基金利率；目前没有必要调整超额准备金利率（IOER）。\n金融稳定方面，鲍威尔表示，我们正在密切关注房价的上升，不认为住房价格带来金融稳定性担忧；Archegos爆仓事件风险并没有上升到系统性风险的水平；有些公司的风险管理出现了问题，Archegos这样的企业本应理解市场风险；我们正在调查与Archegos爆仓事件相关的风险管理缺陷；一些资产的价格高企；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控；金融系统中的杠杆不是问题，融资的风险较低；货币基金刺激风险因素，但并非系统性问题。\n美国近期基本面\n疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。今年三月以来，美国当日新增确诊病例数大都维持在8万以下，整体表现平稳。疫情得到控制主要是由于拜登上台后采取了更为严格的防疫措施，同时当前美国疫苗接种快速普及：截至4月27日，美疾控中心（CDC）数据显示当前美国已接种新冠疫苗数量为2.32亿剂，覆盖了总人口的42.7%，其中65岁以上老龄人口已覆盖81.8%；每百人接种数达到69剂次，在全球范围内较为领先。美疾控中心（CDC）日前决定放松社交规定，允许完成疫苗接种的民众在户外不佩戴口罩，显示疫苗的普及正在为美国放松出行管制提供条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。从数据变化上看，美国3月季调后非农就业人口增91.6万人，预期64.7万人，前值37.9万人。从今年1月开始，新增非农就业人数便开始逐月递增，改善速度有所加快，其背后的主要原因或与美国疫苗接种速度加快，疫情表现相对稳定有关，同时1.9万亿美元财政刺激政策也为企业提供了资金，帮助就业市场的恢复。分行业来看，3月份对美国新增非农就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、政府部门、建筑业以及教育和保健服务业。通胀方面，去年疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。3月美国CPI同比录得2.6%，较前值1.7%上涨0.9pct，核心CPI同比录得1.6%，较前值1.3%上涨0.3pcts，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是3月美国通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因，去年4至6月美国CPI同比分别为-1.2%、0.1%和0.6%，在基数效应的影响下，当前的美国通胀进入了二季度高读数阶段。从CPI的分项上来看，给3月份美国CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是能源分项，3月美国CPI能源分项同比增速高达13.2%，相较2月份的2.4%显著提升。此外，3月美国CPI食品饮料分项和交通运输分项的拉动作用同样较强，同比增速分别为3.4%和5.8%。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。美国3月季调后零售和食品服务销售额录得6191亿美元，自今年1月以后再次创下历史新高，同比增长27.72%，环比增长9.82%。3月消费数据表现亮眼的主要原因或为1.9万亿美元财政刺激与疫情趋稳带来的管制放松。消费者信心方面，高频数据显示美国消费者信心正在逐步回暖，但绝对水平相较疫情发生前仍有较大的改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得史高，美国投资状况温和回升。美国3月季调后耐用品新增订单规模录得2563亿美元，同比上升25.02%，环比上升0.55%，同比高增的主要原因是去年同期基数较低。3月季调后除运输外耐用品新增订单规模为1744亿美元，同比上升12.82%，环比上升1.62%，继今年1月后再次录得历史新高。耐用品新增订单数据显示美国投资状况延续温和回升的趋势。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。美国3月制造业PMI超预期录得64.7，创1982年12月以来新高，非制造业PMI录得63.7，创2005年8月以来新高。具体而言，制造业方面，制造业PMI分项中的物价指数、供应商交付指数、产出指数、新订单指数和订单库存指数分别为85.6、76.6、68.1、68.0、67.5，都继续运行在60以上高位，客户库存指数进一步下跌至29.9，是3月制造业PMI分项中唯一低于荣枯线的一项；非制造业方面，物价指数、商业活动指数、新订单指数和供应商交付指数均超过60，分别为74.0、69.4、67.2和61.0，各分项均位于荣枯线上方。美国3月PMI的超出预期反映了当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快，考虑到财政政策的持续执行和美国疫苗接种率的不断提高，预计美国经济景气度仍将延续回升。\n美联储会议点评\n美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。\n在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。\n关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些情况的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。\n美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计可能于年底前后采取减少购债规模的行动，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才会真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现\n美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365602217,"gmtCreate":1614732248439,"gmtModify":1704774527323,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365602217","repostId":"1113167033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113167033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1614730873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113167033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"After being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113167033","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，","content":"<p>Winners of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Licensed to 14nm in the United States.</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up market sentiment today, and Western media outlets such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported on it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last December, the U.S. Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Being included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The valuation. This easing of sanctions may be related to the current global chip shortage—the US's \"seven-wound punch\" may have already made it difficult for them to withstand it.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is in line with expectations.</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is largely in line with expectations.</b></p><p>As can be seen from the news, among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has already obtained the relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. It is judged that they will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses are based on 10nm, and products related to 14nm and above processes have obtained licenses, while 10nm and below nodes have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L, and K refer to respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>(Applied Materials),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lamb study</a>(Lam Research), American company KLA.</p><p>Trump, who claims to be \"America First,\" probably didn't expect that disrupting any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable consequences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of some U.S. suppliers by intensifying cooperation with them.</b>。 SMIC's main US suppliers include A, L, and K, while its downstream US customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies value the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relationships with Chinese clients such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration on behalf of Huawei. It can be speculated that the relaxation of this policy was only possible thanks to effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, the \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain, backfiring on the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began stockpiling chips in response to US sanctions, squeezing out...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of wafer fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the wafer fab's production slowed down due to the pandemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. Before the orders from the pandemic were fully fulfilled, the economy began to recover, leading to increased demand for chips in scenarios such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial production.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to industries such as consumer electronics and automobiles in the United States, causing severe shocks.</b>。 The revenue that the two major American automakers, General Motors and Ford, should have achieved this year has been reduced by about one-third.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America as a result. Since existing chip demand exceeds 30% of supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait that long. The Biden administration has just taken office.<b>Representatives from several technology companies, the automotive industry, and other business interest groups rushed to write to Biden, stating that the issue was a national priority.</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump stirred up trouble, and Biden had to clean up his mess.</p><p>Upon taking office, Biden immediately signed an executive order addressing the \"chip crisis\" and quickly...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached, and the latter will invest approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will begin at the beginning of this year and production will begin in 2024.</p><p>But the distant waters of 2024 cannot quench the immediate thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>A window of opportunity for a \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>This easing of sanctions has also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected that the approved license would also cover the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment needed for its mature manufacturing process and would issue equipment for a production capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers at once. In response, the market previously expected that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm process is currently considered the most advanced process available for mass production. The 14nm process was mass-produced in Q4 2019, with a yield rate reaching the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The successful approval of the 14nm process means that SMIC will have a breathing space in its mature processes, which contribute the most to revenue. In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported, and the benefits of the 14nm long process node will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will receive orders to support its operations.</b>。 SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin in Q4 2020, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecosystem\".</p><p>SMIC is also bound to use this opportunity to carry out its \"breakthrough\" efforts. Before the US government change last December, there were reports that SMIC and ASML were negotiating EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure this \"chip crisis\" has put on American industries will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still restricts processes below 10nm. The market did not have excessive expectations for further easing of sanctions, since Biden had no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>SMIC's failure to master the 7nm process is partly due to its inability to obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a major Dutch manufacturer in lithography. Behind this is also the United States—since 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Despite efforts to smear the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" has been ambiguously accepted.</b>So far, there haven't been many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions harm the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's fault!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\": What lies ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the depressed market sentiment will ease in the short term, and its valuation will further recover. However, in the long run, we will still have to continue to face pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also quietly striving to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, chip industry leader Liang Mengsong submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared on the list of senior executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>SMIC's 7nm technology development has been completed, and mass production will begin next April.</b>。 The eight most critical and challenging technologies for 5nm and 3nm have already been rolled out in an orderly manner. With the arrival of the EUV lithography, they can enter the full-scale development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Chiang Kai-shek, the chip godfather who was recently brought back by SMIC and the founder of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important step.</p><p>Developing advanced packaging and system integration technologies in mainland China is Jiang's dream.<b>Jiang Shangyi is on good terms with ASML. ASML's dominance in the global lithography market owes much to Jiang Shangyi and others.</b>。</p><p>With Chiang Kai-shek's father arranging the match,<b>SMIC could at least sit down and have a serious discussion with ASML, or seek other ways to circumvent the US \"blockade.\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, nothing has been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks benefits while avoiding harms. It is currently unknown whether the sanctions against SMIC will be relaxed or for how long. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It will be extremely difficult for the United States, at the top of the pyramid, to give up its share of the pie.</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 08:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Winners of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Licensed to 14nm in the United States.</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up market sentiment today, and Western media outlets such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported on it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last December, the U.S. Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Being included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The valuation. This easing of sanctions may be related to the current global chip shortage—the US's \"seven-wound punch\" may have already made it difficult for them to withstand it.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is in line with expectations.</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is largely in line with expectations.</b></p><p>As can be seen from the news, among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has already obtained the relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. It is judged that they will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses are based on 10nm, and products related to 14nm and above processes have obtained licenses, while 10nm and below nodes have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L, and K refer to respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>(Applied Materials),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lamb study</a>(Lam Research), American company KLA.</p><p>Trump, who claims to be \"America First,\" probably didn't expect that disrupting any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable consequences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of some U.S. suppliers by intensifying cooperation with them.</b>。 SMIC's main US suppliers include A, L, and K, while its downstream US customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies value the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relationships with Chinese clients such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration on behalf of Huawei. It can be speculated that the relaxation of this policy was only possible thanks to effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, the \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain, backfiring on the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began stockpiling chips in response to US sanctions, squeezing out...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of wafer fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the wafer fab's production slowed down due to the pandemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. Before the orders from the pandemic were fully fulfilled, the economy began to recover, leading to increased demand for chips in scenarios such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial production.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to industries such as consumer electronics and automobiles in the United States, causing severe shocks.</b>。 The revenue that the two major American automakers, General Motors and Ford, should have achieved this year has been reduced by about one-third.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America as a result. Since existing chip demand exceeds 30% of supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait that long. The Biden administration has just taken office.<b>Representatives from several technology companies, the automotive industry, and other business interest groups rushed to write to Biden, stating that the issue was a national priority.</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump stirred up trouble, and Biden had to clean up his mess.</p><p>Upon taking office, Biden immediately signed an executive order addressing the \"chip crisis\" and quickly...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached, and the latter will invest approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will begin at the beginning of this year and production will begin in 2024.</p><p>But the distant waters of 2024 cannot quench the immediate thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>A window of opportunity for a \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>This easing of sanctions has also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected that the approved license would also cover the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment needed for its mature manufacturing process and would issue equipment for a production capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers at once. In response, the market previously expected that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm process is currently considered the most advanced process available for mass production. The 14nm process was mass-produced in Q4 2019, with a yield rate reaching the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The successful approval of the 14nm process means that SMIC will have a breathing space in its mature processes, which contribute the most to revenue. In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported, and the benefits of the 14nm long process node will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will receive orders to support its operations.</b>。 SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin in Q4 2020, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecosystem\".</p><p>SMIC is also bound to use this opportunity to carry out its \"breakthrough\" efforts. Before the US government change last December, there were reports that SMIC and ASML were negotiating EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure this \"chip crisis\" has put on American industries will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still restricts processes below 10nm. The market did not have excessive expectations for further easing of sanctions, since Biden had no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>SMIC's failure to master the 7nm process is partly due to its inability to obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a major Dutch manufacturer in lithography. Behind this is also the United States—since 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Despite efforts to smear the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" has been ambiguously accepted.</b>So far, there haven't been many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions harm the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's fault!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\": What lies ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the depressed market sentiment will ease in the short term, and its valuation will further recover. However, in the long run, we will still have to continue to face pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also quietly striving to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, chip industry leader Liang Mengsong submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared on the list of senior executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>SMIC's 7nm technology development has been completed, and mass production will begin next April.</b>。 The eight most critical and challenging technologies for 5nm and 3nm have already been rolled out in an orderly manner. With the arrival of the EUV lithography, they can enter the full-scale development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Chiang Kai-shek, the chip godfather who was recently brought back by SMIC and the founder of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important step.</p><p>Developing advanced packaging and system integration technologies in mainland China is Jiang's dream.<b>Jiang Shangyi is on good terms with ASML. ASML's dominance in the global lithography market owes much to Jiang Shangyi and others.</b>。</p><p>With Chiang Kai-shek's father arranging the match,<b>SMIC could at least sit down and have a serious discussion with ASML, or seek other ways to circumvent the US \"blockade.\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, nothing has been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks benefits while avoiding harms. It is currently unknown whether the sanctions against SMIC will be relaxed or for how long. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It will be extremely difficult for the United States, at the top of the pyramid, to give up its share of the pie.</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113167033","content_text":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，压制了中芯国际的估值。而这一次“制裁”放宽，可能与目前全球芯片的短缺有关——美帝的“七伤拳”或已让自己都开始顶不顺。\n01\n“制裁”放宽，符合预期\n此次“制裁”放宽，基本符合预期。\n消息中可以看到，美国部分供应商中A公司已经拿到相关许可证，L公司和K公司还在等待结果，判断后边也会陆续拿到许可证，许可证以10nm为分界点，14nm及以上工艺制程相关产品获得许可，10nm及以下节点未拿到许可证。\nA、L、K分别指代应用材料（Applied Materials）、拉姆研究（Lam Research）、美商科磊（KLA）。\n号称“美国优先”的特朗普也许没想到，敲打全球化产业链的任何一个环节，都会造成难以预料的影响。\n\n一方面，中芯国际与部分美国供应商深入合作，制裁将直接扰乱这些公司的供应链。中芯国际的主要美国供应商就包括A、L、K三家，而下游的美国客户还包括高通和博通。\n\n这些公司重视中国市场，与中芯国际等中国客户也保持着良好的互动关系。此前高通曾经替华为积极游说特朗普政府。可以推测，在美国设备厂家和中芯国际的有效沟通下，才有了此次政策的松动。\n另一方面是“制裁”扰乱了全球芯片供应链，对美国造成反噬。\n去年华为为应对美国“制裁”开始囤积芯片，挤占了台积电和联发科等晶圆厂的产能。后来晶圆厂又因疫情导致生产放缓，大量订单积压。而疫情期间的订单还没消化完，经济又开始复苏，带来消费电子、汽车电子、工业生产等场景下芯片需求提升。\n“芯片危机”迅速传到到美国消费电子、汽车等行业，带来剧烈震荡。美国两大车企——通用、福特年内本应拥有的营收被拉低约1/3，通用汽车甚至计划为此暂停北美三座工厂的生产。由于现有芯片需求超过供应能力的30%，要实现供需平衡，至少需3~4个季度，这意味着“芯片危机”可能持续到2022年。\n\n美国公司等不了这么久了。拜登政府刚上任，多家技术公司、汽车行业和其他商业利益团体的协会代表，就急忙向拜登致信，称该问题为国家优先事项。\n结果特朗普作的妖，还要拜登擦屁股。\n拜登上台后，立即签署了针对“芯片危机”的行政命令，并很快与台积电达成了合作，后者将斥资约2332亿元人民币在美国亚利桑那州新建6座5nm芯片厂，今年初开工，2024年投产。\n可是2024的远水，不解2021的近渴。\n02\n“突围”的窗口期？\n这次“制裁”松绑也有超出预期的部分。\n此前市场可能没想到，获批许可证还涵盖14nm制程。\n早在12月31日就有消息，中芯国际获得美国商务部对其成熟制程所需设备的许可证，并将一次性发放4万~5万片产能所用的设备。对此，此前市场的预期是：28nm以上制程设备将陆续获批。\n中芯国际的14nm暂时还属于可量产的最先进制程。14nm工艺已在2019Q4量产，良品率达业界量产水准，同时第二代FinFET已进入小量试产。\n这次14nm制程也获通过，意味着中芯国际在营收贡献最大的成熟制程上将获喘息机会；在先进制程领域，发展将得到支持，持续享受14nm这个长工艺节点的红利。\n\n这是一个重要的窗口期。\n在业绩上，中芯国际将获得订单以支持运转。2020Q4中芯国际就出现了毛利率下降的情况，中芯国际承认是由于“国际生态的变动”所致。\n中芯国际也势必借此开展“突围”工作。去年12月美国政府换届前，就有消息曝出中芯国际与ASML就EUV光刻机设备谈判的消息。这次“芯片危机”对美国产业造成的压力，将成为中芯国际进一步“突围”的筹码。\n当然，美国方面对10nm以下的制程依然限制。市场对“制裁”进一步放宽也未抱过分期待，毕竟拜登不存在允许中芯国际取得技术突破的理由。\n中芯国际之所以未能掌握7nm制程工艺，部分原因在于不能获得荷兰光刻机大厂ASML的极紫外（EUV）光刻机设备。这背后也是美国——2018年开始，荷兰至少与美国展开4此会议，讨论是否向中国企业供应EUV光刻机。\n\n拜登上台后，虽然极力抹黑特朗普政府，但“对华制裁”这一政治遗产却是暧昧不明地接受了，截至目前没有太多有影响力的表态。\n继续制裁会伤害全球产业链？那可都是特朗普的锅！\n\n03\n中芯“突围”，前路何在？\n对于中芯国际而言，市场的压抑情绪将短期得到缓解，估值进一步修复。可长期来看，还是要在“制裁”之下继续承压。\n所以为了不受制于人，中芯国际也在默默努力追赶“尖子生”的水平。\n2020年12月，芯片界大咖梁孟松给中芯国际递交了一封辞职信（虽然后来他又出现在高管名单中），并在信中透露了一项重要信息：中芯国际7nm技术的开发已经完成，明年四月就可以马上进入风险量产。5nm和3nm最关键、也是最艰巨的8大项技术也已经有序展开，只待EUV光刻机的到来，就可以进入全面开发阶段。\n\n梁孟松辞职的原因，据说与中芯国际刚请回来的芯片教父级人物、台积电开朝元老蒋尚义有关。\n蒋尚义的回归是重要的一步棋。\n在大陆发展先进封装和系统整合技术，是蒋爸的梦想。而蒋尚义与ASML交好。ASML称霸全球光刻机市场，蒋尚义等人功不可没。\n有蒋爸牵红线，中芯至少可与ASML坐下来好好谈，或是寻求其他方式绕开美国“封锁”。\n\n尽管，一切还没有实锤。\n资本自然是趋利避害的。目前对中芯国际“制裁”会不会放宽、能放宽多久尚不可知。唯有一点对资本市场确定的：金字塔顶端的美帝，要让出蛋糕是难上加难。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363891535,"gmtCreate":1614122846927,"gmtModify":1704888348068,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363891535","repostId":"2113332312","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":284534079942960,"gmtCreate":1710472516046,"gmtModify":1710472519494,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/Y92.SI\">$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$ </a> ","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/284534079942960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164552265,"gmtCreate":1624231241057,"gmtModify":1703830852481,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"l","listText":"l","text":"l","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164552265","repostId":"164635550","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":164635550,"gmtCreate":1624193580000,"gmtModify":1703830515266,"author":{"id":"3524105760314666","authorId":"3524105760314666","name":"华商韬略","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbcbbcdfdd125576e4d9038a38b0dc86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105760314666","authorIdStr":"3524105760314666"},"themes":[],"title":"國貨驚豔618：安踏增速大幅領先，耐克阿迪遭滑鐵盧","htmlText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","listText":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","text":"今年的618，安踏戰績驕人。 持續大半個月的618大促，終於落下了帷幕，從天貓公佈的數據來看，不少行業的銷量，在往年基礎上有了大幅增長。 不過，在運動鞋服類目，兩大外資巨頭——耐克和阿迪卻出現了大幅下滑，下滑比例均接近30%。與之形成鮮明對比的，是中國運動品牌的不俗表現，其中安踏（2020.HK）在天貓618期間（6月1日-6月18日）銷量同比增長超過50%，銷售額超過5億元，成爲國貨崛起的品牌樣本。 安踏之所以取得如此亮眼成績的一個重要原因，是隨着國內新冠疫苗大規模接種，民衆對於疫情的恐慌情緒逐步減輕，戶外運動需求較之去年出現大幅增長，受益於此，運動產品消費需求日趨旺盛。 從今年天貓618大促公佈的數據中，我們不難發現，儘管排在運動鞋服類目前五位，但耐克和阿迪達斯的同比銷售額都出現了大幅下滑的情況。 相比之下，以安踏爲代表的國產陣營則增長迅猛，安踏在運動鞋服的增長率分別達到61%和26%，進一步引領國產品牌搶奪更多市場。從運動鞋服的整體銷售額來看，安踏銷量增長50%，逼近6億元人民幣大關，超出第二名李寧銷量6千餘萬元。 很顯然新疆棉事件依然在影響着國內消費者的購買選擇，國民消費漸向國牌的趨勢越發明顯。 打鐵還需自身硬，這一次“新疆棉花”只是觸發點而非決定性因素。此前十多年，以安踏、李寧爲代表的中國頭部品牌，蓄勢已久。 與2008年那一撥體育用品民族品牌的猝然爆發不同，今天中國體育用品吃得不只是民族感情的紅利。產品、品牌、國家自豪感，多波次疊加成就了中國品牌的強勢地位。 這一次，中國品牌突入而至的歷史機遇，不僅能拿得住更能拿得穩、拿得久。 新疆棉事件以來，尤其是簽約王一博後，安踏在產品科研實力及設計上的突破得以被越來越多的中國消費者看到，並逐漸受追捧，這也直接反映在天貓618大促的數據上。 安踏連續贊助了8屆奧運會，爲29支中國國家隊打造過奧運裝備，在2019年還成爲了首個","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85564b62f87f4858884908d247e13eb4","width":"640","height":"174"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47b18741afe04fd9a856df4d7d257d13","width":"1080","height":"723"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fee16ce0ab84269abca3544290215ea","width":"1080","height":"1600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164635550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109804596,"gmtCreate":1619679802215,"gmtModify":1704727883838,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nothing new ?","listText":"Nothing new ?","text":"Nothing new ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109804596","repostId":"1199597620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199597620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619678199,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199597620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 14:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When will the Federal Reserve taper QE?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199597620","media":" 明晰笔谈","summary":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大","content":"<p><b>Core Points</b></p><p><b>Early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. Regarding interest rate tools, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all committee members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement maintained the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1% and the discount rate at 0.25%. Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and CMBS as needed, and continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation remains below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation is rising, primarily reflecting temporary factors,\" making some adjustments based on the minutes of its March policy meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic,</b>The overall pandemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.<b>In terms of employment,</b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March exceeded expectations and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.<b>Regarding inflation,</b>The low base resulting from the pandemic in the same period last year drove up US inflation year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the expectation of a continuous rise in inflation has been realized to some extent.<b>In terms of consumption,</b>The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>Both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a new high since January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in U.S. investment.<b>Regarding economic prosperity,</b>Both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</p><p><b>Commentary: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become even more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.<b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but some aspects of the stock market do indicate a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect a reduction in the scale of bond purchases to occur around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not actually take action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance:</b>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Interest rate meeting results</b></p><p><b>Regarding interest rate instruments,</b>At this Federal Reserve policy meeting, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all members. The Fed reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, continuing to hold rates steady, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>Regarding asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted rate of 0.00%, setting a daily trading limit of US$80 billion per party; Continue to conduct repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the stable operation of the short-term US dollar money market.</p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>The Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, primarily reflecting temporary factors.\" The phrase \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" has been changed to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook still faces risks,\" significantly mitigating the semantic implications. Reiterating the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment remains accommodative\"; Overall, some adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete, and further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected. The sectors most affected by the pandemic have improved, and there is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent scars on the job market. The level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously feared has not been seen. Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and rising spending stimulates prices, which may be temporary. Before achieving the (dual) goal, interest rates near zero are appropriate, and now is not the time to start talking about reducing the scale of bond purchases. Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable.</b></p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>Powell stated that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete; The annual PCE rate is expected to exceed 2%; Economic activity has only recently rebounded, and it will take some time to reach the standard; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong recovery in the labor market; Inflation expectations have returned to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly above the levels of the past few decades; We hope that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be close to the target level. We will closely monitor inflation expectations. It is indeed expected that short-term interest rates will face further downward pressure.</p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic,</b>Powell stated that there has been improvement in the areas most affected by the pandemic; For the economic recovery to make substantial progress, significant progress will also be made in addressing the pandemic. There is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and we have not seen the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that we had previously feared.</p><p><b>On employment and inflation,</b>Powell stated that labor market conditions continue to improve, but the unemployment rate remains high; Before the slowdown occurred, inflation rose further to some extent; Increased spending stimulating prices may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise; There is still a long way to go before full employment; If inflation expectations are indeed higher than 2%, tools will be used to lower them; A one-off price increase is unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding monetary policy,</b>Powell stated that keeping interest rates close to zero is appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards; Now is not the time to start talking about scaling back bond purchases; The Federal Reserve will do its best to support economic recovery if needed; If necessary, tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate; There is currently no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER).</p><p><b>Regarding financial stability</b>Powell stated that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices raise concerns about financial stability. The risk of Archegos' margin call event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should understand market risks; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos warehouse liquidation event; The prices of some assets are high; Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Money market funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not a systemic problem.</p><p><b>US recent fundamentals</b></p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic, the overall situation in the United States has remained relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.</b>Since March of this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 per day, maintaining an overall stable performance. The pandemic has been brought under control mainly due to Biden's stricter pandemic prevention measures since taking office, coupled with the rapid widespread adoption of vaccinations in the United States: as of April 27, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that 232 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% of the population aged 65 and above had been administered. The number of vaccinations per 100 people reached 69 doses, which is relatively leading globally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social distancing regulations, allowing people who have been vaccinated to go outdoors without wearing masks, indicating that the widespread availability of vaccines is paving the way for the United States to ease travel restrictions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.</b>Looking at the data changes, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 916,000 in March, compared with the expected 647,000 and the previous value of 379,000. Since January of this year, the number of new non-farm payrolls has been increasing month by month, and the pace of improvement has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated pace of vaccination in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus policy has also provided funds for enterprises to help the job market recover. By sector, the industries that contributed the most to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hospitality industry, government departments, construction, and education and healthcare services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Regarding inflation, the low base caused by the pandemic last year drove US inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the continuously rising inflation expectations were realized to some extent.</b>In March, the US CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from 1.7% in the previous month. The core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from 1.3% in the previous month. The low base effect caused by the impact of the pandemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the US year-on-year inflation reading in March. The US CPI was -1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year in April and June last year, respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current US inflation has entered a high reading phase in the second quarter. Looking at the CPI sub-items, the energy sub-item that had the strongest year-on-year driving effect on the US CPI in March was the energy sub-item, with the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI sub-item reaching 13.2% in March, a significant increase compared to 2.4% in February. In addition, the food and beverage and transportation sectors of the US CPI also had a strong driving effect in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>On the consumption side, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales reached $619.1 billion in March, marking another record high since January of this year, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.72% and a month-over-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the strong consumption data in March may be the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the easing of regulations brought about by the stabilization of the epidemic. Regarding consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that US consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still considerable room for improvement in absolute terms compared to before the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a record high again after January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in US investment.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods reached $256.3 billion in March, up 25.02% year-over-year and 0.55% month-over-month. The main reason for the high year-over-year growth was the low base in the same period last year. In March, seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached $174.4 billion, up 12.82% year-on-year and 1.62% month-on-month, marking another record high since January of this year. Data on new durable goods orders shows that U.S. investment continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic sentiment, both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery has accelerated under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations at 64.7, the highest since December 1982, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 63.7, the highest since August 2005. Specifically, in the manufacturing sector, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new orders index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run at a high level above 60. The customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only sub-item in the manufacturing PMI in March that was below the expansion/contraction threshold. In the non-manufacturing sector, the price index, business activity index, new orders index, and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, at 74.0, 69.4, 67.2, and 61.0 respectively, with all sub-items above the expansion/contraction line. The better-than-expected US March PMI reflects the accelerated recovery of the US economy under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous increase in US vaccination rates, the US economic climate is expected to continue its recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but certain situations in the stock market do indeed reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect to take action to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not take real action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year. The specifics will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and the improvement of the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When will the Federal Reserve taper QE?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen will the Federal Reserve taper QE?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core Points</b></p><p><b>Early morning of April 29, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its April interest rate meeting. Regarding interest rate tools, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all committee members. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement maintained the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1% and the discount rate at 0.25%. Regarding asset purchases, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made in achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and CMBS as needed, and continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase and repurchase operations. Regarding economic expectations, the Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak; inflation remains below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors hardest hit by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation is rising, primarily reflecting temporary factors,\" making some adjustments based on the minutes of its March policy meeting.</b></p><p><b>Recent fundamentals in the United States: Regarding the pandemic,</b>The overall pandemic situation in the United States is relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.<b>In terms of employment,</b>The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March exceeded expectations and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.<b>Regarding inflation,</b>The low base resulting from the pandemic in the same period last year drove up US inflation year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the expectation of a continuous rise in inflation has been realized to some extent.<b>In terms of consumption,</b>The $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.<b>In terms of investment,</b>Both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a new high since January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in U.S. investment.<b>Regarding economic prosperity,</b>Both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery is accelerating under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</p><p><b>Commentary: The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become even more important.<b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.<b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but some aspects of the stock market do indicate a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.<b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect a reduction in the scale of bond purchases to occur around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not actually take action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, depending mainly on changes in the epidemic and improvements in the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance:</b>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p><p><b>Interest rate meeting results</b></p><p><b>Regarding interest rate instruments,</b>At this Federal Reserve policy meeting, the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25% was unanimously agreed upon by all members. The Fed reiterated that it will maintain interest rates at the current level until it is confident that the economy has weathered the crisis and achieved its dual goals of maximizing employment and price stability. The excess reserve ratio (IOER) will remain unchanged at 0.1%, and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%, continuing to hold rates steady, in line with market expectations.</p><p><b>Regarding asset purchases,</b>The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will continue to purchase Treasury Bond at a rate of no less than $80 billion per month and MBS at a rate of no less than $40 billion per month \"until substantial progress is made toward achieving the committee's largest employment and price stability goals,\" and will increase its holdings of Treasury Bond and MBS and purchase CMBS as needed to promote stable market operations and provide accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. Continue to conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreements with a quoted rate of 0.00%, setting a daily trading limit of US$80 billion per party; Continue to conduct repurchase operations to support effective policy implementation and maintain the stable operation of the short-term US dollar money market.</p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>The Federal Reserve removed the statement that \"economic activity and employment indicators have recently rebounded after a slowdown in the pace of recovery, although sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak; inflation continues to be below 2%\" and replaced it with \"economic activity and employment indicators have strengthened as vaccination efforts progress and strong policy support. Sectors most affected by the pandemic remain weak but have improved; inflation has risen, primarily reflecting temporary factors.\" The phrase \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook\" has been changed to \"the ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy, and the economic outlook still faces risks,\" significantly mitigating the semantic implications. Reiterating the views that \"the path of economic development will largely depend on the spread of the virus, including the progress of vaccination\" and \"the overall financial environment remains accommodative\"; Overall, some adjustments have been made based on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March this year.</p><p><b>Powell's speech</b></p><p><b>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference that day that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete, and further downward pressure on short-term interest rates is indeed expected. The sectors most affected by the pandemic have improved, and there is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent scars on the job market. The level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that was previously feared has not been seen. Labor market conditions continue to improve, unemployment remains high, and rising spending stimulates prices, which may be temporary. Before achieving the (dual) goal, interest rates near zero are appropriate, and now is not the time to start talking about reducing the scale of bond purchases. Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable.</b></p><p><b>Regarding economic expectations,</b>Powell stated that the recovery remains uneven and incomplete; The annual PCE rate is expected to exceed 2%; Economic activity has only recently rebounded, and it will take some time to reach the standard; It will take some time to raise inflation expectations, which is expected to be accompanied by a strong recovery in the labor market; Inflation expectations have returned to levels around 2018 and 2014; Hopefully, inflation expectations will rise and be slightly above the levels of the past few decades; We hope that inflation expectations will be firmly controlled at 2%, and the break-even inflation rate will be close to the target level. We will closely monitor inflation expectations. It is indeed expected that short-term interest rates will face further downward pressure.</p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic,</b>Powell stated that there has been improvement in the areas most affected by the pandemic; For the economic recovery to make substantial progress, significant progress will also be made in addressing the pandemic. There is great concern that the pandemic will leave permanent damage to the job market, and we have not seen the level of \"long-term economic trauma\" that we had previously feared.</p><p><b>On employment and inflation,</b>Powell stated that labor market conditions continue to improve, but the unemployment rate remains high; Before the slowdown occurred, inflation rose further to some extent; Increased spending stimulating prices may be temporary; With the labor market still weak, it seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise; There is still a long way to go before full employment; If inflation expectations are indeed higher than 2%, tools will be used to lower them; A one-off price increase is unlikely to lead to sustained inflation.</p><p><b>Regarding monetary policy,</b>Powell stated that keeping interest rates close to zero is appropriate until the (dual) goal is achieved; The temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet rate hike standards; Now is not the time to start talking about scaling back bond purchases; The Federal Reserve will do its best to support economic recovery if needed; If necessary, tools will be used to support Federal Funds rate; There is currently no need to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER).</p><p><b>Regarding financial stability</b>Powell stated that we are closely monitoring the rise in housing prices and do not believe that housing prices raise concerns about financial stability. The risk of Archegos' margin call event has not risen to the level of systemic risk; Some companies have problems with risk management, and companies like Archegos should understand market risks; We are investigating risk management deficiencies related to the Archegos warehouse liquidation event; The prices of some assets are high; Overall financial stability varies, but risks are controllable; Leverage in the financial system is not a problem, and the risk of financing is low; Money market funds stimulate risk factors, but they are not a systemic problem.</p><p><b>US recent fundamentals</b></p><p><b>Regarding the pandemic, the overall situation in the United States has remained relatively stable, and the widespread availability of vaccines has provided conditions for relaxing travel restrictions.</b>Since March of this year, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States has mostly remained below 80,000 per day, maintaining an overall stable performance. The pandemic has been brought under control mainly due to Biden's stricter pandemic prevention measures since taking office, coupled with the rapid widespread adoption of vaccinations in the United States: as of April 27, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that 232 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, covering 42.7% of the total population, of which 81.8% of the population aged 65 and above had been administered. The number of vaccinations per 100 people reached 69 doses, which is relatively leading globally. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently decided to relax social distancing regulations, allowing people who have been vaccinated to go outdoors without wearing masks, indicating that the widespread availability of vaccines is paving the way for the United States to ease travel restrictions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b75d462c298291169e2f7de6e79378\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab33e92146d1ded015bd0988ae8e76c\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of employment, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March was higher than expected and the previous value. Factors such as accelerated vaccination, relatively stable pandemic performance, and $1.9 trillion in fiscal stimulus to provide funding to businesses combined to drive the pace of employment improvement to continue to accelerate.</b>Looking at the data changes, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 916,000 in March, compared with the expected 647,000 and the previous value of 379,000. Since January of this year, the number of new non-farm payrolls has been increasing month by month, and the pace of improvement has accelerated. The main reason behind this may be related to the accelerated pace of vaccination in the United States and the relatively stable performance of the epidemic. At the same time, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus policy has also provided funds for enterprises to help the job market recover. By sector, the industries that contributed the most to the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in March came from the leisure and hospitality industry, government departments, construction, and education and healthcare services.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a95ad1bd5d9f9e2af451ace160a4d97\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7574ced9fbd4c08159a140fd76491b5e\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Regarding inflation, the low base caused by the pandemic last year drove US inflation higher year-on-year in March, mainly driven by the energy sector, and the continuously rising inflation expectations were realized to some extent.</b>In March, the US CPI recorded 2.6% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from 1.7% in the previous month. The core CPI recorded 1.6% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from 1.3% in the previous month. The low base effect caused by the impact of the pandemic last year was an important reason for the sharp increase in the US year-on-year inflation reading in March. The US CPI was -1.2%, 0.1% and 0.6% year-on-year in April and June last year, respectively. Under the influence of the base effect, the current US inflation has entered a high reading phase in the second quarter. Looking at the CPI sub-items, the energy sub-item that had the strongest year-on-year driving effect on the US CPI in March was the energy sub-item, with the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI sub-item reaching 13.2% in March, a significant increase compared to 2.4% in February. In addition, the food and beverage and transportation sectors of the US CPI also had a strong driving effect in March, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0197b2b2ff9a93fcc47f5a335a5f08e2\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>On the consumption side, the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the stabilization of the pandemic have jointly driven strong performance in US consumption, and consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still room for improvement.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted retail and food service sales reached $619.1 billion in March, marking another record high since January of this year, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.72% and a month-over-month increase of 9.82%. The main reason for the strong consumption data in March may be the $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus and the easing of regulations brought about by the stabilization of the epidemic. Regarding consumer confidence, high-frequency data shows that US consumer confidence is gradually recovering, but there is still considerable room for improvement in absolute terms compared to before the pandemic.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e47581b90ed71a1177ec4939b5567c1\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd63f97b75996d5b9805c766c848eda\" tg-width=\"541\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of investment, both new orders for durable goods in the United States and new orders for durable goods excluding transportation turned positive month-on-month. Among them, new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached a record high again after January this year, indicating a moderate recovery in US investment.</b>U.S. seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods reached $256.3 billion in March, up 25.02% year-over-year and 0.55% month-over-month. The main reason for the high year-over-year growth was the low base in the same period last year. In March, seasonally adjusted new orders for durable goods excluding transportation reached $174.4 billion, up 12.82% year-on-year and 1.62% month-on-month, marking another record high since January of this year. Data on new durable goods orders shows that U.S. investment continues its moderate recovery trend.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d199b058ffda424a73fdaac83b176401\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>In terms of economic sentiment, both the U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in March exceeded expectations, reflecting that the U.S. economic recovery has accelerated under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support.</b>The U.S. manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations at 64.7, the highest since December 1982, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 63.7, the highest since August 2005. Specifically, in the manufacturing sector, the price index, supplier delivery index, output index, new orders index and order inventory index in the manufacturing PMI sub-items were 85.6, 76.6, 68.1, 68.0 and 67.5 respectively, all of which continued to run at a high level above 60. The customer inventory index further fell to 29.9, which was the only sub-item in the manufacturing PMI in March that was below the expansion/contraction threshold. In the non-manufacturing sector, the price index, business activity index, new orders index, and supplier delivery index all exceeded 60, at 74.0, 69.4, 67.2, and 61.0 respectively, with all sub-items above the expansion/contraction line. The better-than-expected US March PMI reflects the accelerated recovery of the US economy under the current stable pandemic and fiscal policy support. Considering the continued implementation of fiscal policy and the continuous increase in US vaccination rates, the US economic climate is expected to continue its recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dd1afb1b23c068c4c5eed8a88999127\" tg-width=\"547\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e491aadef280a483fe56f624f4a284e\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Federal Reserve Meeting Commentary</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve is more optimistic about the economic outlook, which is consistent with the progress of COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States and recent U.S. economic data.</b>In its statement, the Federal Reserve noted that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remain weak but have shown signs of improvement; At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained that the sectors most negatively impacted by the pandemic remained weak. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's statement also indicated that it believes the risks have decreased. Although the Fed still believes that the economic outlook still faces risks at this meeting, the wording this time shows that the Fed believes the risks have decreased compared to the previous view—which poses a considerable risk to the economic outlook. On the one hand, positive changes in economic data have allowed the market to anticipate these changes in wording from the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, as the economy continues to recover, the Federal Reserve's subsequent meetings will become more important.</p><p><b>On the issue of inflation, the Federal Reserve continued its previous stance, believing that it largely reflected the impact of temporary factors, and explicitly included this in the Fed's meeting statement.</b>In the subsequent Q&A session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is temporary and believes it will rise further before slowing down.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve Chairman also addressed the risk aspects of stocks, housing prices, and liquidity, and this information provided perspective for the outlook for monetary policy.</b>Regarding stock risks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell believes that risk events similar to Archegos' margin call are not a cause for concern, but certain situations in the stock market do indeed reflect a market bubble. In response to the rapid rise in housing prices, Powell stated that the housing sector has not raised concerns about financial stability, and that housing prices reflect a supply shortage. This may provide a basis for subsequently reducing the scale of MBS purchases. The strong real estate market may give the Federal Reserve confidence to reduce the scale of MBS purchases, while the scale of Treasury Bond purchases involves coordination with fiscal policy, and the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will continue its current pace of bond purchases. We expect to take action to reduce the scale of bond purchases around the end of the year, but it will signal a reduction earlier and allow ample time to communicate with the market. The June interest rate meeting will be a very important time.</b>At that time, the vaccination process in the United States may gradually reach the vaccination coverage area required for herd immunity. At that time, the Federal Reserve may begin to explore more plans to reduce bond purchases and send more market signals. However, the Federal Reserve may not take real action until the end of this year or the beginning of next year. The specifics will mainly depend on changes in the epidemic and the improvement of the job market. Operationally, the Federal Reserve may be the first to reduce its purchases of MBS. In its statement following the policy meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated that it would not change the pace of bond purchases until \"substantial further progress\" was made on its employment and inflation targets, continuing its previous stance. In his speech, Powell reiterated the importance of the job market, stating that the United States still has a large number of unemployed people, and therefore the plan to reduce bond purchases will be closely related to the pace of improvement in the job market.</p><p><b>US market performance</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major stock indexes declined slightly in the short term. U.S. stocks generally rose that day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.49%, the S&P 500 closing up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite closing up 0.11%. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined in the short term, giving back all of its intraday gains and reversing its decline, before fluctuating downwards. the US Dollar Index fluctuated downwards after a short-term dip, hitting a monthly low of 90.5569; International gold and silver prices both rose briefly after the interest rate decision was announced, and then surged again after Powell's speech.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w\"> 明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P8a1SR0FCYCN6rI2jtpD2w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199597620","content_text":"核心观点\n北京时间4月29日凌晨，美联储公布4月议息会议结果。利率工具方面，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。美联储FOMC声明将超额准备金率（IOER）维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变。资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据需要增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，继续进行隔夜逆回购和回购操作。经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”，在今年3月的议息会议纪要的基础上做出了一定调整。\n美国近期基本面：疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。通胀方面，去年同期疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得新高，美国投资状况温和回升。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。\n点评：美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，后续随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些东西的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计减少购债规模的行动可能于年底前后发生，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现：美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。\n议息会议结果\n利率工具方面，在本次美联储议息会议上，将基准利率维持在0-0.25%不变的决议得到所有委员一致同意，美联储重申将维持利率在当前水平直至确信经济度过危机，实现其最大就业和物价稳定的双重目标。超额准备金率（IOER）将维持在0.1%不变，贴现利率维持在0.25%不变，继续按兵不动，符合市场预期。\n资产购买方面，美联储重申将“在实现委员会的最大就业和价格稳定目标方面取得实质性进展之前”，继续以每个月不低于800亿美元的速度购买国债、以每个月不低于400亿美元的速度购买MBS，并根据促进平稳的市场运作、提供宽松金融条件的需要来增持国债和MBS、购买CMBS，从而支持信贷流向家庭和企业；继续进行报价利率为0.00%的隔夜逆回购协议操作，设定每天每方交易限额为800亿美元；继续进行回购操作以支持有效的政策实施，维护短期美元资金市场的平稳运行。\n经济预期方面，美联储移除了关于“在复苏步伐放缓之后，经济活动和就业指标最近有所回升，尽管受大流行病影响最严重的部门仍然疲弱；通货膨胀率继续低于2%”的表述，将其替换成“随着疫苗接种工作的进展和强有力的政策支持，经济活动和就业指标得到了加强。受大流行影响最严重的部门仍然薄弱，但已有改善；通货膨胀率上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”；将“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济活动、就业和通货膨胀带来了压力，并给经济前景带来相当大的风险”修改为“持续的公共卫生危机继续给经济带来了压力，经济前景仍然面临风险”，语义显著缓和；重申“经济发展的道路将在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播过程，包括疫苗接种的进展”“总体金融环境维持宽松”等观点；整体上在今年3月的议息会议纪要基础上做出了一定调整。\n鲍威尔的讲话\n美联储主席鲍威尔在当日新闻发布会上表示：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力；受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善，非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤痕，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平；劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企，支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控。\n经济预期方面，鲍威尔表示，复苏仍然不平衡、不完整；PCE年率预计将超过2%；经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间；需要一段时间才能上调通胀预期，预计这将伴随着劳动力市场的强劲复苏；通胀预期回归到2018年和2014年左右的水平；希望通胀预期上升，并稍高于过去几十年的水平；希望通胀预期牢固控制在2%，损益平衡通胀率很接近目标水平，会密切关注通胀预期；确实预计短期利率会有进一步下行的压力。\n疫情方面，鲍威尔表示，受疫情影响最严重的领域有所改善；经济复苏要取得实质性的进展，也将在疫情方面取得重大进展；非常担心疫情对就业市场留下永久伤害，没有看到之前担忧的“经济长期创伤”水平。\n就业与通胀方面，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企；在出现放缓之前，某种程度上通胀出现进一步的上升；支出增长刺激物价，可能是暂时性的；在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升；离充分就业还有很长的路要走；如果通胀预期真的高于2%的水平，就会使用工具将其降下来；一次性物价上涨不太可能导致持续的通胀。\n货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，在实现（双重）目标前，利率接近零是合适的；今年通胀的暂时上升不符合加息的标准；现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候；如有需要，美联储将尽力支持经济复苏；如有需要，将使用工具来支持联邦基金利率；目前没有必要调整超额准备金利率（IOER）。\n金融稳定方面，鲍威尔表示，我们正在密切关注房价的上升，不认为住房价格带来金融稳定性担忧；Archegos爆仓事件风险并没有上升到系统性风险的水平；有些公司的风险管理出现了问题，Archegos这样的企业本应理解市场风险；我们正在调查与Archegos爆仓事件相关的风险管理缺陷；一些资产的价格高企；整体金融稳定情况参差不齐，但风险可控；金融系统中的杠杆不是问题，融资的风险较低；货币基金刺激风险因素，但并非系统性问题。\n美国近期基本面\n疫情方面，美国疫情整体较为平稳，疫苗的普及为放松出行管制提供了条件。今年三月以来，美国当日新增确诊病例数大都维持在8万以下，整体表现平稳。疫情得到控制主要是由于拜登上台后采取了更为严格的防疫措施，同时当前美国疫苗接种快速普及：截至4月27日，美疾控中心（CDC）数据显示当前美国已接种新冠疫苗数量为2.32亿剂，覆盖了总人口的42.7%，其中65岁以上老龄人口已覆盖81.8%；每百人接种数达到69剂次，在全球范围内较为领先。美疾控中心（CDC）日前决定放松社交规定，允许完成疫苗接种的民众在户外不佩戴口罩，显示疫苗的普及正在为美国放松出行管制提供条件。就业方面，3月美国新增非农就业人数高于预期和前值，疫苗接种速度加快、疫情表现相对稳定和1.9万亿美元财政刺激为企业提供资金等多因素共同推动就业改善速度继续加快。从数据变化上看，美国3月季调后非农就业人口增91.6万人，预期64.7万人，前值37.9万人。从今年1月开始，新增非农就业人数便开始逐月递增，改善速度有所加快，其背后的主要原因或与美国疫苗接种速度加快，疫情表现相对稳定有关，同时1.9万亿美元财政刺激政策也为企业提供了资金，帮助就业市场的恢复。分行业来看，3月份对美国新增非农就业人数贡献较高的行业来自于休闲和酒店业、政府部门、建筑业以及教育和保健服务业。通胀方面，去年疫情产生的低基数推动美国3月通胀同比走高，主要拉动来自于能源分项，持续上涨的通胀预期一定程度上得到兑现。3月美国CPI同比录得2.6%，较前值1.7%上涨0.9pct，核心CPI同比录得1.6%，较前值1.3%上涨0.3pcts，去年受疫情影响导致的低基数效应是3月美国通胀同比读数大幅上涨的一项重要原因，去年4至6月美国CPI同比分别为-1.2%、0.1%和0.6%，在基数效应的影响下，当前的美国通胀进入了二季度高读数阶段。从CPI的分项上来看，给3月份美国CPI同比带来拉动效应最强的分项是能源分项，3月美国CPI能源分项同比增速高达13.2%，相较2月份的2.4%显著提升。此外，3月美国CPI食品饮料分项和交通运输分项的拉动作用同样较强，同比增速分别为3.4%和5.8%。消费方面，1.9万亿美元财政刺激和疫情趋稳共同推动美国消费表现亮眼，消费者信心逐步回暖但仍有改善空间。美国3月季调后零售和食品服务销售额录得6191亿美元，自今年1月以后再次创下历史新高，同比增长27.72%，环比增长9.82%。3月消费数据表现亮眼的主要原因或为1.9万亿美元财政刺激与疫情趋稳带来的管制放松。消费者信心方面，高频数据显示美国消费者信心正在逐步回暖，但绝对水平相较疫情发生前仍有较大的改善空间。投资方面，美国耐用品新增订单和除运输外耐用品新增订单环比均回正，其中除运输外耐用品新增订单继今年1月后再次录得史高，美国投资状况温和回升。美国3月季调后耐用品新增订单规模录得2563亿美元，同比上升25.02%，环比上升0.55%，同比高增的主要原因是去年同期基数较低。3月季调后除运输外耐用品新增订单规模为1744亿美元，同比上升12.82%，环比上升1.62%，继今年1月后再次录得历史新高。耐用品新增订单数据显示美国投资状况延续温和回升的趋势。经济景气方面，美国3月制造业和非制造业PMI均超出预期，反映出当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快。美国3月制造业PMI超预期录得64.7，创1982年12月以来新高，非制造业PMI录得63.7，创2005年8月以来新高。具体而言，制造业方面，制造业PMI分项中的物价指数、供应商交付指数、产出指数、新订单指数和订单库存指数分别为85.6、76.6、68.1、68.0、67.5，都继续运行在60以上高位，客户库存指数进一步下跌至29.9，是3月制造业PMI分项中唯一低于荣枯线的一项；非制造业方面，物价指数、商业活动指数、新订单指数和供应商交付指数均超过60，分别为74.0、69.4、67.2和61.0，各分项均位于荣枯线上方。美国3月PMI的超出预期反映了当前在疫情平稳和财政政策支撑下美国经济的修复有所加快，考虑到财政政策的持续执行和美国疫苗接种率的不断提高，预计美国经济景气度仍将延续回升。\n美联储会议点评\n美联储对经济前景更加乐观，这与美国的新冠疫苗注射进度和美国近期的经济数据表现一致。美联储在声明中提到最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱，但已经显示出了改善；而上次会议中美联储的看法还是最受此次大流行负面影响的行业板块仍保持疲弱。同时，美联储声明还表明其认为风险也有所降低，尽管这次会议美联储仍然认为经济前景仍旧面临风险，但是相较于上次的看法——对经济前景构成相当大的风险——这次的措辞显示出美联储认为风险已经减少。一方面，经济数据的积极变化使得市场能够预期美联储这些措辞的转变；另一方面，随着经济继续恢复，美联储后续的会议将更加重要。\n在通胀的问题上美联储依旧延续此前的论调，即认为在很大程度上反映了暂时性因素的影响，而且将其明确写进了美联储的会议声明中。在之后的问答环节美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调了通胀是暂时性的，并认为通货膨胀将进一步有所上升，然后减缓。\n关于股票、房价以及流动性的风险层面，美联储主席也有所涉及，并且这些信息为货币政策的前景提供了角度。关于股票风险，美联储主席鲍威尔认为类似于Archegos爆仓的风险事件并不值得担忧，但是股市的某些情况的确体现出市场泡沫。在回应房价快速上涨时鲍威尔表示住房方面并未引发金融稳定性顾虑，房价体现出的是供不应求的状态。这或为后续减少MBS购买规模提供基础，即房地产市场的强劲局面使得美联储可能放心减少MBS的购买规模，而国债购买规模涉及到与财政政策的配合，美联储可能将更加谨慎。\n美联储延续当前购债速度，我们预计可能于年底前后采取减少购债规模的行动，但会更早发出减少购债规模的信号，并留出充裕时间与市场沟通，6月份的议息会议将会是一个很重要的时点，届时美国的疫苗注射进程可能也将逐渐达到群体免疫所需要的接种覆盖面积，届时美联储可能开始更多地探讨减少购债的计划，发出更多市场信号，但美联储可能要等到今年年底或明年年初才会真正行动，具体将主要视疫情的变化和就业市场的改善而定。操作上，美联储可能将率先减少MBS的购买量。美联储在本次议息会议后的声明中重申不会改变债券购买速度，直到就业和通胀目标取得“实质性的进一步进展”，延续此前论调。并且鲍威尔讲话里面再次强调就业市场的重要性，表示美国仍然有大量失业人口，因此减少购债的计划将于就业市场的改善节奏息息相关。\n美国市场表现\n美联储发布利率决议后，三大股指短线下行，小幅回落，当日美股大体上行，道指收跌0.49%，标普500指数收涨0.14%，纳指收涨0.11%；10年期美债收益率短线下行，回吐日内全部涨幅转跌，随后一路震荡下行；美元指数短线跳水后震荡下行，向下探得月内最低值90.5569；国际金价、银价均在利率决议发布后短线上行，并在鲍威尔讲话之后再度大涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365602217,"gmtCreate":1614732248439,"gmtModify":1704774527323,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365602217","repostId":"1113167033","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113167033","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1614730873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113167033?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-03 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"After being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113167033","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，","content":"<p>Winners of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Licensed to 14nm in the United States.</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up market sentiment today, and Western media outlets such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported on it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last December, the U.S. Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Being included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The valuation. This easing of sanctions may be related to the current global chip shortage—the US's \"seven-wound punch\" may have already made it difficult for them to withstand it.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is in line with expectations.</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is largely in line with expectations.</b></p><p>As can be seen from the news, among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has already obtained the relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. It is judged that they will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses are based on 10nm, and products related to 14nm and above processes have obtained licenses, while 10nm and below nodes have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L, and K refer to respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>(Applied Materials),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lamb study</a>(Lam Research), American company KLA.</p><p>Trump, who claims to be \"America First,\" probably didn't expect that disrupting any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable consequences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of some U.S. suppliers by intensifying cooperation with them.</b>。 SMIC's main US suppliers include A, L, and K, while its downstream US customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies value the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relationships with Chinese clients such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration on behalf of Huawei. It can be speculated that the relaxation of this policy was only possible thanks to effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, the \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain, backfiring on the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began stockpiling chips in response to US sanctions, squeezing out...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of wafer fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the wafer fab's production slowed down due to the pandemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. Before the orders from the pandemic were fully fulfilled, the economy began to recover, leading to increased demand for chips in scenarios such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial production.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to industries such as consumer electronics and automobiles in the United States, causing severe shocks.</b>。 The revenue that the two major American automakers, General Motors and Ford, should have achieved this year has been reduced by about one-third.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America as a result. Since existing chip demand exceeds 30% of supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait that long. The Biden administration has just taken office.<b>Representatives from several technology companies, the automotive industry, and other business interest groups rushed to write to Biden, stating that the issue was a national priority.</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump stirred up trouble, and Biden had to clean up his mess.</p><p>Upon taking office, Biden immediately signed an executive order addressing the \"chip crisis\" and quickly...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached, and the latter will invest approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will begin at the beginning of this year and production will begin in 2024.</p><p>But the distant waters of 2024 cannot quench the immediate thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>A window of opportunity for a \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>This easing of sanctions has also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected that the approved license would also cover the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment needed for its mature manufacturing process and would issue equipment for a production capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers at once. In response, the market previously expected that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm process is currently considered the most advanced process available for mass production. The 14nm process was mass-produced in Q4 2019, with a yield rate reaching the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The successful approval of the 14nm process means that SMIC will have a breathing space in its mature processes, which contribute the most to revenue. In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported, and the benefits of the 14nm long process node will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will receive orders to support its operations.</b>。 SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin in Q4 2020, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecosystem\".</p><p>SMIC is also bound to use this opportunity to carry out its \"breakthrough\" efforts. Before the US government change last December, there were reports that SMIC and ASML were negotiating EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure this \"chip crisis\" has put on American industries will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still restricts processes below 10nm. The market did not have excessive expectations for further easing of sanctions, since Biden had no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>SMIC's failure to master the 7nm process is partly due to its inability to obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a major Dutch manufacturer in lithography. Behind this is also the United States—since 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Despite efforts to smear the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" has been ambiguously accepted.</b>So far, there haven't been many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions harm the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's fault!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\": What lies ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the depressed market sentiment will ease in the short term, and its valuation will further recover. However, in the long run, we will still have to continue to face pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also quietly striving to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, chip industry leader Liang Mengsong submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared on the list of senior executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>SMIC's 7nm technology development has been completed, and mass production will begin next April.</b>。 The eight most critical and challenging technologies for 5nm and 3nm have already been rolled out in an orderly manner. With the arrival of the EUV lithography, they can enter the full-scale development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Chiang Kai-shek, the chip godfather who was recently brought back by SMIC and the founder of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important step.</p><p>Developing advanced packaging and system integration technologies in mainland China is Jiang's dream.<b>Jiang Shangyi is on good terms with ASML. ASML's dominance in the global lithography market owes much to Jiang Shangyi and others.</b>。</p><p>With Chiang Kai-shek's father arranging the match,<b>SMIC could at least sit down and have a serious discussion with ASML, or seek other ways to circumvent the US \"blockade.\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, nothing has been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks benefits while avoiding harms. It is currently unknown whether the sanctions against SMIC will be relaxed or for how long. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It will be extremely difficult for the United States, at the top of the pyramid, to give up its share of the pie.</b>。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter being held back for six months, SMIC is finally catching its breath.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-03 08:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Winners of the \"chip crisis\"?<b>“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>Licensed to 14nm in the United States.</b></p><p>Yesterday's news stirred up market sentiment today, and Western media outlets such as CNBC and The Wall Street Journal also reported on it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34033eeb8e6d504b9b220624b1510de7\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Last December, the U.S. Department of Commerce will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Being included in the \"Entity List\" suppressed<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>The valuation. This easing of sanctions may be related to the current global chip shortage—the US's \"seven-wound punch\" may have already made it difficult for them to withstand it.</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is in line with expectations.</b></p><p><b>The relaxation of sanctions is largely in line with expectations.</b></p><p>As can be seen from the news, among some suppliers in the United States, Company A has already obtained the relevant licenses, while Company L and Company K are still waiting for the results. It is judged that they will also obtain licenses one after another. The licenses are based on 10nm, and products related to 14nm and above processes have obtained licenses, while 10nm and below nodes have not obtained licenses.</p><p>A, L, and K refer to respectively<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Application materials</a>(Applied Materials),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">Lamb study</a>(Lam Research), American company KLA.</p><p>Trump, who claims to be \"America First,\" probably didn't expect that disrupting any link in the global industrial chain would have unpredictable consequences.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297e3e249ee82777b45b4bd1ee6ace91\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>On the one hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Sanctions will directly disrupt the supply chains of some U.S. suppliers by intensifying cooperation with them.</b>。 SMIC's main US suppliers include A, L, and K, while its downstream US customers also include Qualcomm and Broadcom.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45a374657acd2b3bfff3bf230d2c8e9f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"572\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These companies value the Chinese market and maintain good interactive relationships with Chinese clients such as SMIC. previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>He once actively lobbied the Trump administration on behalf of Huawei. It can be speculated that the relaxation of this policy was only possible thanks to effective communication between American equipment manufacturers and SMIC.</p><p><b>On the other hand, the \"sanctions\" have disrupted the global chip supply chain, backfiring on the United States.</b></p><p>Last year, Huawei began stockpiling chips in response to US sanctions, squeezing out...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And the production capacity of wafer fabs such as MediaTek. Later, the wafer fab's production slowed down due to the pandemic, resulting in a large backlog of orders. Before the orders from the pandemic were fully fulfilled, the economy began to recover, leading to increased demand for chips in scenarios such as consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial production.</p><p><b>The \"chip crisis\" quickly spread to industries such as consumer electronics and automobiles in the United States, causing severe shocks.</b>。 The revenue that the two major American automakers, General Motors and Ford, should have achieved this year has been reduced by about one-third.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>There are even plans to suspend production at three factories in North America as a result. Since existing chip demand exceeds 30% of supply capacity, it will take at least 3 to 4 quarters to achieve a balance between supply and demand, which means that the \"chip crisis\" may last until 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8939d25e16c01a64dc1e3f4ce4cab17e\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>American companies can't wait that long. The Biden administration has just taken office.<b>Representatives from several technology companies, the automotive industry, and other business interest groups rushed to write to Biden, stating that the issue was a national priority.</b>。</p><p>As a result, Trump stirred up trouble, and Biden had to clean up his mess.</p><p>Upon taking office, Biden immediately signed an executive order addressing the \"chip crisis\" and quickly...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>A cooperation has been reached, and the latter will invest approximately 233.2 billion yuan to build six new 5nm chip factories in Arizona, USA. Construction will begin at the beginning of this year and production will begin in 2024.</p><p>But the distant waters of 2024 cannot quench the immediate thirst of 2021.</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>A window of opportunity for a \"breakthrough\"?</b></p><p><b>This easing of sanctions has also exceeded expectations.</b></p><p>The market may not have expected that the approved license would also cover the 14nm process.</p><p>As early as December 31, it was reported that SMIC had obtained a license from the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equipment needed for its mature manufacturing process and would issue equipment for a production capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers at once. In response, the market previously expected that process equipment above 28nm would be approved one after another.</p><p>SMIC's 14nm process is currently considered the most advanced process available for mass production. The 14nm process was mass-produced in Q4 2019, with a yield rate reaching the industry's mass production level. At the same time, the second-generation FinFET has entered small-scale trial production.</p><p>The successful approval of the 14nm process means that SMIC will have a breathing space in its mature processes, which contribute the most to revenue. In the field of advanced manufacturing processes, development will be supported, and the benefits of the 14nm long process node will continue to be enjoyed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655da6c9b905daafadf40cdfae6383ca\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This is an important window.</p><p><b>In terms of performance, SMIC will receive orders to support its operations.</b>。 SMIC experienced a decline in gross profit margin in Q4 2020, which SMIC admitted was due to \"changes in the international ecosystem\".</p><p>SMIC is also bound to use this opportunity to carry out its \"breakthrough\" efforts. Before the US government change last December, there were reports that SMIC and ASML were negotiating EUV lithography equipment.<b>The pressure this \"chip crisis\" has put on American industries will become a bargaining chip for SMIC to further \"break through\".</b></p><p>Of course, the United States still restricts processes below 10nm. The market did not have excessive expectations for further easing of sanctions, since Biden had no reason to allow SMIC to achieve technological breakthroughs.</p><p>SMIC's failure to master the 7nm process is partly due to its inability to obtain extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment from ASML, a major Dutch manufacturer in lithography. Behind this is also the United States—since 2018, the Netherlands has held at least four meetings with the United States to discuss whether to supply EUV lithography to Chinese companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f002d8139515fa6676857d61e75d490\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After Biden took office,<b>Despite efforts to smear the Trump administration, the political legacy of \"sanctions against China\" has been ambiguously accepted.</b>So far, there haven't been many influential statements.</p><p>Will continued sanctions harm the global industrial chain? That's all Trump's fault!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c913f243d1bf5f2126d3c6565146560c\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>SMIC's \"breakthrough\": What lies ahead?</b></p><p>For SMIC, the depressed market sentiment will ease in the short term, and its valuation will further recover. However, in the long run, we will still have to continue to face pressure under \"sanctions\".</p><p>Therefore, in order not to be controlled by others, SMIC is also quietly striving to catch up with the level of \"top students\".</p><p>In December 2020, chip industry leader Liang Mengsong submitted a resignation letter to SMIC (although he later appeared on the list of senior executives), and revealed an important piece of information in the letter:<b>SMIC's 7nm technology development has been completed, and mass production will begin next April.</b>。 The eight most critical and challenging technologies for 5nm and 3nm have already been rolled out in an orderly manner. With the arrival of the EUV lithography, they can enter the full-scale development stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c896767e601f175e478e00ca51e35f\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"779\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The reason for Liang Mengsong's resignation is said to be related to Chiang Kai-shek, the chip godfather who was recently brought back by SMIC and the founder of TSMC.</p><p>Jiang Shangyi's return is an important step.</p><p>Developing advanced packaging and system integration technologies in mainland China is Jiang's dream.<b>Jiang Shangyi is on good terms with ASML. ASML's dominance in the global lithography market owes much to Jiang Shangyi and others.</b>。</p><p>With Chiang Kai-shek's father arranging the match,<b>SMIC could at least sit down and have a serious discussion with ASML, or seek other ways to circumvent the US \"blockade.\"</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467c977bcf09d36ca11667136d44899d\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although, nothing has been confirmed yet.</p><p>Capital naturally seeks benefits while avoiding harms. It is currently unknown whether the sanctions against SMIC will be relaxed or for how long. Only one thing is certain about the capital market:<b>It will be extremely difficult for the United States, at the top of the pyramid, to give up its share of the pie.</b>。</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdb458f2c3eed8796a1e2ecf37309073","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","00981":"中芯国际"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113167033","content_text":"“芯片危机”的赢家？\n\n“中芯国际获美国14nm许可。”\n昨天这则消息，搅动了今天的市场情绪，CNBC、《华尔街时报》等西方媒体也报道了相关新闻。\n\n去年12月，美国商务部将中芯国际列入“实体清单”，压制了中芯国际的估值。而这一次“制裁”放宽，可能与目前全球芯片的短缺有关——美帝的“七伤拳”或已让自己都开始顶不顺。\n01\n“制裁”放宽，符合预期\n此次“制裁”放宽，基本符合预期。\n消息中可以看到，美国部分供应商中A公司已经拿到相关许可证，L公司和K公司还在等待结果，判断后边也会陆续拿到许可证，许可证以10nm为分界点，14nm及以上工艺制程相关产品获得许可，10nm及以下节点未拿到许可证。\nA、L、K分别指代应用材料（Applied Materials）、拉姆研究（Lam Research）、美商科磊（KLA）。\n号称“美国优先”的特朗普也许没想到，敲打全球化产业链的任何一个环节，都会造成难以预料的影响。\n\n一方面，中芯国际与部分美国供应商深入合作，制裁将直接扰乱这些公司的供应链。中芯国际的主要美国供应商就包括A、L、K三家，而下游的美国客户还包括高通和博通。\n\n这些公司重视中国市场，与中芯国际等中国客户也保持着良好的互动关系。此前高通曾经替华为积极游说特朗普政府。可以推测，在美国设备厂家和中芯国际的有效沟通下，才有了此次政策的松动。\n另一方面是“制裁”扰乱了全球芯片供应链，对美国造成反噬。\n去年华为为应对美国“制裁”开始囤积芯片，挤占了台积电和联发科等晶圆厂的产能。后来晶圆厂又因疫情导致生产放缓，大量订单积压。而疫情期间的订单还没消化完，经济又开始复苏，带来消费电子、汽车电子、工业生产等场景下芯片需求提升。\n“芯片危机”迅速传到到美国消费电子、汽车等行业，带来剧烈震荡。美国两大车企——通用、福特年内本应拥有的营收被拉低约1/3，通用汽车甚至计划为此暂停北美三座工厂的生产。由于现有芯片需求超过供应能力的30%，要实现供需平衡，至少需3~4个季度，这意味着“芯片危机”可能持续到2022年。\n\n美国公司等不了这么久了。拜登政府刚上任，多家技术公司、汽车行业和其他商业利益团体的协会代表，就急忙向拜登致信，称该问题为国家优先事项。\n结果特朗普作的妖，还要拜登擦屁股。\n拜登上台后，立即签署了针对“芯片危机”的行政命令，并很快与台积电达成了合作，后者将斥资约2332亿元人民币在美国亚利桑那州新建6座5nm芯片厂，今年初开工，2024年投产。\n可是2024的远水，不解2021的近渴。\n02\n“突围”的窗口期？\n这次“制裁”松绑也有超出预期的部分。\n此前市场可能没想到，获批许可证还涵盖14nm制程。\n早在12月31日就有消息，中芯国际获得美国商务部对其成熟制程所需设备的许可证，并将一次性发放4万~5万片产能所用的设备。对此，此前市场的预期是：28nm以上制程设备将陆续获批。\n中芯国际的14nm暂时还属于可量产的最先进制程。14nm工艺已在2019Q4量产，良品率达业界量产水准，同时第二代FinFET已进入小量试产。\n这次14nm制程也获通过，意味着中芯国际在营收贡献最大的成熟制程上将获喘息机会；在先进制程领域，发展将得到支持，持续享受14nm这个长工艺节点的红利。\n\n这是一个重要的窗口期。\n在业绩上，中芯国际将获得订单以支持运转。2020Q4中芯国际就出现了毛利率下降的情况，中芯国际承认是由于“国际生态的变动”所致。\n中芯国际也势必借此开展“突围”工作。去年12月美国政府换届前，就有消息曝出中芯国际与ASML就EUV光刻机设备谈判的消息。这次“芯片危机”对美国产业造成的压力，将成为中芯国际进一步“突围”的筹码。\n当然，美国方面对10nm以下的制程依然限制。市场对“制裁”进一步放宽也未抱过分期待，毕竟拜登不存在允许中芯国际取得技术突破的理由。\n中芯国际之所以未能掌握7nm制程工艺，部分原因在于不能获得荷兰光刻机大厂ASML的极紫外（EUV）光刻机设备。这背后也是美国——2018年开始，荷兰至少与美国展开4此会议，讨论是否向中国企业供应EUV光刻机。\n\n拜登上台后，虽然极力抹黑特朗普政府，但“对华制裁”这一政治遗产却是暧昧不明地接受了，截至目前没有太多有影响力的表态。\n继续制裁会伤害全球产业链？那可都是特朗普的锅！\n\n03\n中芯“突围”，前路何在？\n对于中芯国际而言，市场的压抑情绪将短期得到缓解，估值进一步修复。可长期来看，还是要在“制裁”之下继续承压。\n所以为了不受制于人，中芯国际也在默默努力追赶“尖子生”的水平。\n2020年12月，芯片界大咖梁孟松给中芯国际递交了一封辞职信（虽然后来他又出现在高管名单中），并在信中透露了一项重要信息：中芯国际7nm技术的开发已经完成，明年四月就可以马上进入风险量产。5nm和3nm最关键、也是最艰巨的8大项技术也已经有序展开，只待EUV光刻机的到来，就可以进入全面开发阶段。\n\n梁孟松辞职的原因，据说与中芯国际刚请回来的芯片教父级人物、台积电开朝元老蒋尚义有关。\n蒋尚义的回归是重要的一步棋。\n在大陆发展先进封装和系统整合技术，是蒋爸的梦想。而蒋尚义与ASML交好。ASML称霸全球光刻机市场，蒋尚义等人功不可没。\n有蒋爸牵红线，中芯至少可与ASML坐下来好好谈，或是寻求其他方式绕开美国“封锁”。\n\n尽管，一切还没有实锤。\n资本自然是趋利避害的。目前对中芯国际“制裁”会不会放宽、能放宽多久尚不可知。唯有一点对资本市场确定的：金字塔顶端的美帝，要让出蛋糕是难上加难。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363891535,"gmtCreate":1614122846927,"gmtModify":1704888348068,"author":{"id":"3563315459541876","authorId":"3563315459541876","name":"RUMBLE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367c0c53c20b19e478748cd87fcfc0f4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563315459541876","authorIdStr":"3563315459541876"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great!!!","listText":"Great!!!","text":"Great!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363891535","repostId":"2113332312","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
