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shaoming
2021-06-02
Cool
@扑克投资家:李蓓:焦煤,新一輪10年大牛市!
shaoming
2021-06-02
Awesome
@扑克投资家:高盛:大宗商品市場歷史性逆轉,中國不再是世界邊際買家
shaoming
2021-04-28
$Nanofilm(MZH.SI)$
Trying to get some advice from peeps that are still holding this stock: How much is your price target for this stock? And why?
shaoming
2021-04-16
$AMD(AMD)$
Well. Amd was up 4% today... And Tesla is dropping... I just had to.
shaoming
2021-04-07
$AMD(AMD)$
I definitely know amd is worth more than this
shaoming
2021-04-07
Awesome....
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","listText":"作 者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","text":"作 者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88187d4472064c31aa4cb3c9a14fd3cb","width":"495","height":"215"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e093aea7b5eb4028954e9014c9b9ac0a","width":"1080","height":"648"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d138f279fbb437885e7821bb5989202","width":"1080","height":"677"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119599144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119797821,"gmtCreate":1622563209363,"gmtModify":1704186462771,"author":{"id":"3563422058743132","authorId":"3563422058743132","name":"shaoming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebcac1d5020704380a15ecf83f98056f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563422058743132","authorIdStr":"3563422058743132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119797821","repostId":"119590441","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":119590441,"gmtCreate":1622548800000,"gmtModify":1719197791793,"author":{"id":"3524105581449289","authorId":"3524105581449289","name":"扑克投资家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca993284400c72bf022739f5328f46cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105581449289","authorIdStr":"3524105581449289"},"themes":[],"title":"高盛:大宗商品市場歷史性逆轉,中國不再是世界邊際買家","htmlText":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 與2000年的牛市相比,這是一個巨大的角色逆轉,當時中國的新興需求擠出了美國的邊際消費者,而中國現在是現有的消費者,就像當時的美國一樣。如果這一關鍵假設","listText":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 與2000年的牛市相比,這是一個巨大的角色逆轉,當時中國的新興需求擠出了美國的邊際消費者,而中國現在是現有的消費者,就像當時的美國一樣。如果這一關鍵假設","text":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 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And why? ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MZH.SI\">$Nanofilm(MZH.SI)$</a>Trying to get some advice from peeps that are still holding this stock: How much is your price target for this stock? And why? ","text":"$Nanofilm(MZH.SI)$Trying to get some advice from peeps that are still holding this stock: How much is your price target for this stock? 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And Tesla is dropping... I just had to. ","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Well. Amd was up 4% today... And Tesla is dropping... 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","listText":"Awesome.... ","text":"Awesome....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603fdc4269c5deec16189907748ec8ec","width":"1440","height":"3677"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343739469","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":343736037,"gmtCreate":1617754672829,"gmtModify":1704702610892,"author":{"id":"3563422058743132","authorId":"3563422058743132","name":"shaoming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebcac1d5020704380a15ecf83f98056f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563422058743132","authorIdStr":"3563422058743132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>I definitely know amd is worth more than this","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>I definitely know amd is worth more than this","text":"$AMD(AMD)$I definitely know amd is worth more than this","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fe78cf47fd1c45db2c53ee795977d7c","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343736037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574943393887740","authorId":"3574943393887740","name":"Geniex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/581664640a374b5a1a5c0cc84f9d53f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574943393887740","authorIdStr":"3574943393887740"},"content":"Please help to comment and like","text":"Please help to comment and like","html":"Please help to comment and like"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100517295,"gmtCreate":1619621228817,"gmtModify":1704726988553,"author":{"id":"3563422058743132","authorId":"3563422058743132","name":"shaoming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebcac1d5020704380a15ecf83f98056f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563422058743132","authorIdStr":"3563422058743132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MZH.SI\">$Nanofilm(MZH.SI)$</a>Trying to get some advice from peeps that are still holding this stock: How much is your price target for this stock? 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And why?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1842cdba1cb30bcaab640f24e967fb","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100517295","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347558819,"gmtCreate":1618503538231,"gmtModify":1704711995218,"author":{"id":"3563422058743132","authorId":"3563422058743132","name":"shaoming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebcac1d5020704380a15ecf83f98056f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563422058743132","authorIdStr":"3563422058743132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Well. Amd was up 4% today... And Tesla is dropping... I just had to. ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>Well. Amd was up 4% today... And Tesla is dropping... I just had to. ","text":"$AMD(AMD)$Well. Amd was up 4% today... And Tesla is dropping... I just had 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者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","listText":"作 者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","text":"作 者 | 李蓓 來 源 | 半夏投資 摘要 焦煤已經出現較大缺口,長期供需會更加緊張,新一輪10年大牛市開啓。 我對焦煤是有感情的,我剛入行的時候就看被安排焦煤。 要知道資本都是勢利的,當年我所在的基金管理公司,彼時研究團隊不超過10個人,能安排一個人專門去看這個行業,就說明了其重要性和熱度。在當年,山西焦煤(西山煤電)在A股的地位,大致相當於現在寧德時代在A股的地位。 現在很多人對焦煤都已經不熟悉了,所以需要科普一下。 焦煤,與其說是一種能源,不如說是一種材料。焦煤經加工變成焦炭,在高爐鍊鋼的環節,除了起熱能和還原劑的作用,更多是需要起到支架的作用。幾十年過去了,業內一直希望開發新的工藝,但這一工藝一直無法取代。因爲需要起到支架作用,所以需要比較高的物理指標,所以主焦煤( 高粘結指數 高膠質)是必需品,無可替代。 而主焦煤,在整個地球上,從儲量的角度都是非常稀缺的。中國主焦煤的儲量,只有總煤炭儲量的不到1/10。這就是焦煤,跟動力煤,鐵礦石,鋁土礦這些到處都是的大路貨色的區別。焦煤從資源上就很少,就算你想砸錢挖礦,也找不到地方砸。 高品質的焦煤,甚至被稱爲國寶級資源。 這就是爲什麼,當年山西焦煤的PE,長期穩定在40倍以上,除了中國城鎮化的需求拉動潛力,更重要是資源稀缺性的故事。 我印象深刻的,2008年的全球經濟危機中,商品見頂的順序: 原油,6月開始下跌, 銅,7月開始下跌 焦煤,6-8月仍在上漲,9月纔開始下跌。 下跌的先後體現了品種的強弱。焦煤,是週期之王。 在中國,焦煤不僅稀缺,還不容易開採。礦井深,井下地質條件複雜,高瓦斯高風險,是焦煤礦的普遍現象。 我下過神華在鄂爾多斯的礦井,下過中煤在平朔的大礦坑。但無論當年我所在的機構買了多少焦煤股票,賺了多少錢,焦煤的礦井,即便是國有大礦,我從來沒有半絲念頭,半分膽量去體驗。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88187d4472064c31aa4cb3c9a14fd3cb","width":"495","height":"215"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e093aea7b5eb4028954e9014c9b9ac0a","width":"1080","height":"648"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d138f279fbb437885e7821bb5989202","width":"1080","height":"677"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119599144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119797821,"gmtCreate":1622563209363,"gmtModify":1704186462771,"author":{"id":"3563422058743132","authorId":"3563422058743132","name":"shaoming","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebcac1d5020704380a15ecf83f98056f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563422058743132","authorIdStr":"3563422058743132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119797821","repostId":"119590441","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":119590441,"gmtCreate":1622548800000,"gmtModify":1719197791793,"author":{"id":"3524105581449289","authorId":"3524105581449289","name":"扑克投资家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca993284400c72bf022739f5328f46cf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105581449289","authorIdStr":"3524105581449289"},"themes":[],"title":"高盛:大宗商品市場歷史性逆轉,中國不再是世界邊際買家","htmlText":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 與2000年的牛市相比,這是一個巨大的角色逆轉,當時中國的新興需求擠出了美國的邊際消費者,而中國現在是現有的消費者,就像當時的美國一樣。如果這一關鍵假設","listText":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 與2000年的牛市相比,這是一個巨大的角色逆轉,當時中國的新興需求擠出了美國的邊際消費者,而中國現在是現有的消費者,就像當時的美國一樣。如果這一關鍵假設","text":"作 者 | 高盛 來 源 | 金融見聞錄 導讀 大宗商品(Commodities)是指可進入流通領域,但非零售環節,具有商品屬性並用於工農業生產與消費使用的大批量買賣的物質商品。近期,爲應對大宗商品價格飆升,中國央行是否會干預人民幣走向升值?本文將通過高盛的角度一探究竟。 正文 中國最近積極打擊飆升的大宗商品價格,甚至把央行的貨幣制度也包含進來,中國央行表示,人民幣升值絕不是對爆炸性的大宗商品價格的反應,這給全球通縮論者帶來了新的支持,近期大宗商品價格的大幅飆升可能即將結束。 對高盛極爲看多大宗商品的團隊來說,中國的干預對其論點造成了相當不愉快的打擊,高盛大宗商品部門負責人Jeffrey Currie做出了迴應,他起草了一份報告稱,在中國對在岸投機發出警告後,大宗商品價格回落是一個“明顯的買入機會”,因爲“大宗商品看漲的論點既不是關於中國投機者,也不是關於中國需求增長”。 柯里表示,儘管大宗商品價格在中國對在岸大宗商品投機發出警告後回落了3% 左右,但“石油、銅和大豆等關鍵大宗商品的基本面仍然是趨於緊張,大宗商品牛市仍然存在。” 正如一些人擔心美聯儲已經失去對通脹的控制,許多人公開嘲笑美聯儲反覆呼籲的通脹是“暫時的”,高盛做出了一個類似的大膽判斷,即“中國已經失去了定價權”。 中國不再是大宗商品的中心。然而,將此次由中國主導的下跌視爲買入機會的最關鍵原因是,越來越多的證據表明,大宗商品不再以中國爲中心。DM需求復甦的速度意味着中國不再是決定價格的邊際買家,因爲它被西方消費者擠出了市場。市場開始反映出這一點,因爲銅價越來越多地受到西方製造業數據的推動,而不是中國製造業數據。 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