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LWLz
2021-05-16
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A Big Opportunity In A Big Market
LWLz
2021-04-23
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read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192093165","repostId":"1129126046","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129126046","pubTimestamp":1620964164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129126046?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Big Opportunity In A Big Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129126046","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.</li><li>Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is the latest example of a ransomware attack).</li><li>The estimated intrinsic value for the company is $37.15 (19% potential upside), while the pricing value is $52.8 (70% potential upside).</li></ul><p>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Deniel Selivanov as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.</p><p><b>Overview</b></p><p>Telos (TLS) is a cybersecurity play, which has exposure on both sides of the market, government and commercial. With the last two big cyberattacks which involved U.S. companies, namely the SolarWinds attack and Colonial Pipeline attack, we can clearly see how cybersecurity will be one of the future big trends that, if taken at the right time, offers big opportunity with big gains.</p><p>Telos stock has rallied 42.67% since the IPO in 2020, outperforming the 15.3% rise in the S&P 500 over the same time period.</p><p>I believe that the 25% correction in Telos stock from its 52-Week high offers a good opportunity to take a position in this cybersecurity company.</p><p><b>Long Term: Sector Outlook Overview</b></p><p>The pandemic made the digitalization process accelerate at a very fast pace and, if from one side the digitalization process brings a lot of benefits, it also brings big risks with it, namely the cyber-risk. In 2020 many companies were \"forced\" to become more digital and for time-constraints reasons everything was done without taking into account possible mistakes along the road. These mistakes, however, didn't pass unnoticed.</p><p>The cyber-attacks in 2020 increased at the same pace as the digitalization transformation, especially malware and ransomware type of attacks. But why should we worry about cyber risk? A cyber-attack could lead to business interruption events: for instance, the last one involved the Colonial Pipeline, which represent not only a monetary cost for the company (whichincreased by 72%in the last 5 years) but also a reputational one.</p><p>Thelatest reportpublished by Allianz (the Allianz Risk Barometer report 2021) has found that the most important global and business risks for 2021 are: business interruption (top 1), pandemic outbreak (top 2), and cyber incidents (top 3). If we consider the business interruption as a consequence of a cyber-attack, we can clearly visualize how the cyber threat is the most important risk for businesses, not only in 2021 but especially in the years to come.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e3117e4d5051a7e658c17f734e107e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Agcs.allianz.com</span></p><p>Among different kinds of cyber-attacks, malware and ransomware are those which are spreading faster than others. Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third, (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is an example of ransomware attack). Once hit by such attacks, companies tend to pay what a ransom attacker demand; however, this is only the direct cost associated with the attack and we should not forget about all the indirect costs associated with it, which are much bigger.</p><p>Emsisoft, a company specialized in anti-malware solutions, estimated that in 2020 the ransom demand (i.e. the direct cost) representedonly 6%of the total cost in which companies incurred to deal with the cyber-attack. Finally, we must take into account that companies' willingness to pay attackers increases the number and the complexity of cyber-attacks.</p><p>In thelatest research(the Market Research Report - 2021), conducted by Fortune Business Insights, the global cyber security market size for 2020 is estimated to be around $153.16 billion and it is expected to be worth $366.10 billion in 2028 (CAGR of 12%). However, I believe that the market can be much bigger, driven by the fact that cybersecurity will become a critical element, especially in a world in which everything tends to be digital. Nonetheless, as stated by the company, Telos sees a total addressable market at$80 billion.</p><p><b>Company Products Overview</b></p><p>Telos is a cybersecurity company that offers software-based security solutions to U.S. federal government (e.g., Department of Defence, Central Intelligence Agency, etc.) and enterprises (e.g., Amazon (AMZN), Citigroup (CITI), Microsoft(MSFT), etc.). The company was founded in 1969 and its mission is to focus on the needs of its customers. In fact, Telos puts always customer needs at first place, which means offering solutions or improvements required by its clients. Telos's ability to be a customer-centric organization can be clearly seen through the numbers, since 85% of Telos revenues are recurring (and approximately 50% of total revenue comes from segments with no or limited competition).</p><p>The company offers different solution, among others:</p><ol><li><b>Telos Xacta:</b>is a solution that embodies two main functions: first, to continuously manage the cyber risk (security assessment for instance); and second, to help organizations manage security compliance. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4d0337daeb5f6d1476c5006b87b257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Telos.comThe product is very appreciated by its customer since it is used not only by the U.S. federal government, but also by big clouds providers, such as AWS and Microsoft Azure.</span></p></li><li><b>Telos Ghost:</b>is a solution that we could see as VPN 2.0, summarized by the company as:<i>\"you can't exploit what you can't see\".</i>Nowadays, more and more people are using VPN to try to protect themselves against possible threats or just because they want to remain anonymous in the Internet. However, this is not enough, especially if you are a manager of a big company and you exchange business critical information with others. This is where Telos Ghost comes in your help: it creates a fully secured network, where all the data are encrypted, user information (e.g., location and identity) are hidden, and the company's network is protected against any possible cyber threat. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:<i>Telos.com</i></li><li><b>Telos ID:</b>is an identity management solution, which uses technologies, such as fuse biometrics, credentials, etc., to make sure that only specific persons can have access to sensitive information. It is a dominant solution among U.S. federal agencies, but it is also gaining popularity among enterprises.</li></ol><p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p>Let's now perform a DCF analysis. Fundamentally, the company has big opportunities to offer, even if not fully yet. Let's start by looking at the cost structure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0b4e8cab77dfeca9a4ebca5df711f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>From the figure above we can clearly see how services represent the biggest portion of costs, namely 91% for the last year (versus 5 year average of 87%), and are those responsible for keeping the operating margins relatively low. On the other side, as we can imagine, the biggest portion of revenues comes from services, namely 89.6%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cdbc7405967c885a87824acff198e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>In particular, it is worth noting the changing growth trajectory which started in 2017 as a direct response to new business goals definition. In 2017, Telos started to invest into new products and solutions to expand its addressable market. These revenues growth dynamics are expected to keep increasing in line with its accelerating partnership programs and the strong brand name that company has in the industry.</p><p>Before starting doing any projection, I retrieved 5 years of historical data to better understand how the company works. I present below the historical data and the projections I made for the years to come:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d814ffc0af7d3802cda7521d9b7321a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>At first sight, numbers don’t seem to be that promising, but we should not jump at that conclusion too fast and we should instead think out of the box. Until 2017, Telos used to work more with the government, but since 2018 its strategy has changed. In fact, as stated by the company, Telos is now focusing on leveraging its security solutions by expanding their presence in commercial markets; they do this by developing new solutions and strengthening the current ones.</p><p>In particular, the company is focusing on improving its margins and revenues by expanding its partner program to speed up the scaling in the commercial and international markets. In fact, this is what they are doing: as right now, both Telos Ghost and Xacta are available through various AWS and Microsoft Azure marketplace. Now, in light of this, and considering also the willingness of president Joe Biden to put more efforts and money into cybersecurity projects, I allow the company to grow at a CAGR of 33% in the years 2 to 5 and then I steadily decrease the growth rate to 1.58% in year 10. Why 33%? Well, it's purely subjective. I look at the company revenue growth in recent years, the company revenues relative to the overall market size and to larger players in the sector.</p><p>Now, for what concern margins, I believe that they can be improved, so I increase them to what I consider reasonable levels given the company business: 52% (versus current 34.69%) for the gross margin and 19.5% (versus current 0.69%) for the operating margin. To determine the company target margins, I look at the industry averages: for instance, the U.S. industry average margins are 23.30% and the global ones 19.31%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b6939a7b8156a6b622f453033f8bf\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/</span></p><p>A number that is worth to be noted is the sales to capital ratio (i.e. growth efficiency), which tells us how much we must reinvest to keep our business growing; the higher this number the more efficiently the company is growing. In doing my projections, I decrease this number to 0.95 in year 10 (i.e. industry average).</p><p>Finally, let's look at the market inputs we need to use in the discounted cash flow model.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8935dcbda0d8246faca532f5e8c18cf8\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>The implied equity risk premium was computed following the country of incorporation approach, in this case looking only at the U.S. market. The implied equity risk premium at the time of the computation was of 4.02%, well below the historical 3 years median of 5.68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33334f3b9b8fc28838136eef10d07e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/</span></p><p>The cost of capital computations are displayed in the figure below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be84b5939fcc6c091f8ad8b44872560e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>Now, taking all the projections and discounting the cash flows, I obtain a value per share of $37.15 (19% potential upside); alternatively, if you prefer pricing the company instead of discounting the future cash flows, I come up with a value of $52.8 (70% potential upside). The pricing value is obtained by taking the expected EPS in 2025 of 1.76 and multiplying it for a P/E of 30. The P/E of 30 is obtained by looking at the current Palantir (PLTR) P/E value of 125 and bringing it down to what I believe is a more reasonable value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2f928594eb8d7e4f3427fbf22ba1533\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p><b>Catalysts</b></p><p>At this point, you may be asking yourself: What kind of catalysts may make the value converge to the “fair” price? I would like to underline some possible catalysts, which are sector and company related.</p><ul><li>The first big catalyst I see comes from the companies themselves. By understanding the fact that the cyber threat is a real danger, which harms the business not only economically but also reputationally, businesses will be willing to do everything is in their power to protect themselves against such risks. Thus, they will invest heavily in cyberdefense.</li><li>The second catalyst comes from the digital transformation we are living now, which will be even bigger in years to come. As we know, technology is bad and good at the same time, where the former comes from cyber-attacks.</li><li>The third catalyst comes from the governments increasing spending in cybersecurity related projects, which is driven by two reasons: the willingness to protect critical information and the willingness to become leaders in the field.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21cad07a429fd8674ad8cfab24a091b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Belfercenter.org</span></p></li></ul><p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb1ef868b278a8c94a56a2ddb177563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p>For what concerns technical analysis, the formation I see is a “Flags, High and Tigh” with the odds in the stock’s favor. Let me explain why. First, this kind of formation is the one which I mostly love, since it offers the best performance: the average rise after the breakout is of 69% in a bull market and of 40% in a bear market; as right now, we are in a bull market according to the economic business cycle indicators. Then, if we look at the volume, we can see a falling volume structure, which makes the breakout performance even stronger (71% vs 52% for rising volume trend) and, given the current price levels, I see a risk-reward ratio of 2.9 over a period of 6 months to 1 year.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>The digitalization process brings many benefits with it, but it also brings many risks. In a world in which enterprises are becoming more and more digital, cybersecurity represents a key piece to complete the puzzle. Not many have understood it yet, but when they will do, the trend will be already running at a fast pace and joining the train will offer a much lower risk-reward ratio.</p><p>Even if Telos is not a newly founded company, it knows well the industry in which it operates and it is highly adaptable at the evolving environment. Going forward, the key metric to look at is its ability to expand in the commercial market, both domestic and international.</p><p>Currently, it shows buying signals on both the fundamental and technical side and this should be taken into account. Especially for short-term investors (i.e. investors with a time horizon less than 1 year), I see an opportunity to get a return in the range of 40-60% over the next 6 to 12 months.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Big Opportunity In A Big Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Big Opportunity In A Big Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 11:49 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLS":"Telos Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1129126046","content_text":"SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is the latest example of a ransomware attack).The estimated intrinsic value for the company is $37.15 (19% potential upside), while the pricing value is $52.8 (70% potential upside).Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Deniel Selivanov as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.OverviewTelos (TLS) is a cybersecurity play, which has exposure on both sides of the market, government and commercial. With the last two big cyberattacks which involved U.S. companies, namely the SolarWinds attack and Colonial Pipeline attack, we can clearly see how cybersecurity will be one of the future big trends that, if taken at the right time, offers big opportunity with big gains.Telos stock has rallied 42.67% since the IPO in 2020, outperforming the 15.3% rise in the S&P 500 over the same time period.I believe that the 25% correction in Telos stock from its 52-Week high offers a good opportunity to take a position in this cybersecurity company.Long Term: Sector Outlook OverviewThe pandemic made the digitalization process accelerate at a very fast pace and, if from one side the digitalization process brings a lot of benefits, it also brings big risks with it, namely the cyber-risk. In 2020 many companies were \"forced\" to become more digital and for time-constraints reasons everything was done without taking into account possible mistakes along the road. These mistakes, however, didn't pass unnoticed.The cyber-attacks in 2020 increased at the same pace as the digitalization transformation, especially malware and ransomware type of attacks. But why should we worry about cyber risk? A cyber-attack could lead to business interruption events: for instance, the last one involved the Colonial Pipeline, which represent not only a monetary cost for the company (whichincreased by 72%in the last 5 years) but also a reputational one.Thelatest reportpublished by Allianz (the Allianz Risk Barometer report 2021) has found that the most important global and business risks for 2021 are: business interruption (top 1), pandemic outbreak (top 2), and cyber incidents (top 3). If we consider the business interruption as a consequence of a cyber-attack, we can clearly visualize how the cyber threat is the most important risk for businesses, not only in 2021 but especially in the years to come.Source:Agcs.allianz.comAmong different kinds of cyber-attacks, malware and ransomware are those which are spreading faster than others. Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third, (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is an example of ransomware attack). Once hit by such attacks, companies tend to pay what a ransom attacker demand; however, this is only the direct cost associated with the attack and we should not forget about all the indirect costs associated with it, which are much bigger.Emsisoft, a company specialized in anti-malware solutions, estimated that in 2020 the ransom demand (i.e. the direct cost) representedonly 6%of the total cost in which companies incurred to deal with the cyber-attack. Finally, we must take into account that companies' willingness to pay attackers increases the number and the complexity of cyber-attacks.In thelatest research(the Market Research Report - 2021), conducted by Fortune Business Insights, the global cyber security market size for 2020 is estimated to be around $153.16 billion and it is expected to be worth $366.10 billion in 2028 (CAGR of 12%). However, I believe that the market can be much bigger, driven by the fact that cybersecurity will become a critical element, especially in a world in which everything tends to be digital. Nonetheless, as stated by the company, Telos sees a total addressable market at$80 billion.Company Products OverviewTelos is a cybersecurity company that offers software-based security solutions to U.S. federal government (e.g., Department of Defence, Central Intelligence Agency, etc.) and enterprises (e.g., Amazon (AMZN), Citigroup (CITI), Microsoft(MSFT), etc.). The company was founded in 1969 and its mission is to focus on the needs of its customers. In fact, Telos puts always customer needs at first place, which means offering solutions or improvements required by its clients. Telos's ability to be a customer-centric organization can be clearly seen through the numbers, since 85% of Telos revenues are recurring (and approximately 50% of total revenue comes from segments with no or limited competition).The company offers different solution, among others:Telos Xacta:is a solution that embodies two main functions: first, to continuously manage the cyber risk (security assessment for instance); and second, to help organizations manage security compliance. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:Telos.comThe product is very appreciated by its customer since it is used not only by the U.S. federal government, but also by big clouds providers, such as AWS and Microsoft Azure.Telos Ghost:is a solution that we could see as VPN 2.0, summarized by the company as:\"you can't exploit what you can't see\".Nowadays, more and more people are using VPN to try to protect themselves against possible threats or just because they want to remain anonymous in the Internet. However, this is not enough, especially if you are a manager of a big company and you exchange business critical information with others. This is where Telos Ghost comes in your help: it creates a fully secured network, where all the data are encrypted, user information (e.g., location and identity) are hidden, and the company's network is protected against any possible cyber threat. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:Telos.comTelos ID:is an identity management solution, which uses technologies, such as fuse biometrics, credentials, etc., to make sure that only specific persons can have access to sensitive information. It is a dominant solution among U.S. federal agencies, but it is also gaining popularity among enterprises.Discounted Cash Flow ModelLet's now perform a DCF analysis. Fundamentally, the company has big opportunities to offer, even if not fully yet. Let's start by looking at the cost structure.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportFrom the figure above we can clearly see how services represent the biggest portion of costs, namely 91% for the last year (versus 5 year average of 87%), and are those responsible for keeping the operating margins relatively low. On the other side, as we can imagine, the biggest portion of revenues comes from services, namely 89.6%.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportIn particular, it is worth noting the changing growth trajectory which started in 2017 as a direct response to new business goals definition. In 2017, Telos started to invest into new products and solutions to expand its addressable market. These revenues growth dynamics are expected to keep increasing in line with its accelerating partnership programs and the strong brand name that company has in the industry.Before starting doing any projection, I retrieved 5 years of historical data to better understand how the company works. I present below the historical data and the projections I made for the years to come:Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportAt first sight, numbers don’t seem to be that promising, but we should not jump at that conclusion too fast and we should instead think out of the box. Until 2017, Telos used to work more with the government, but since 2018 its strategy has changed. In fact, as stated by the company, Telos is now focusing on leveraging its security solutions by expanding their presence in commercial markets; they do this by developing new solutions and strengthening the current ones.In particular, the company is focusing on improving its margins and revenues by expanding its partner program to speed up the scaling in the commercial and international markets. In fact, this is what they are doing: as right now, both Telos Ghost and Xacta are available through various AWS and Microsoft Azure marketplace. Now, in light of this, and considering also the willingness of president Joe Biden to put more efforts and money into cybersecurity projects, I allow the company to grow at a CAGR of 33% in the years 2 to 5 and then I steadily decrease the growth rate to 1.58% in year 10. Why 33%? Well, it's purely subjective. I look at the company revenue growth in recent years, the company revenues relative to the overall market size and to larger players in the sector.Now, for what concern margins, I believe that they can be improved, so I increase them to what I consider reasonable levels given the company business: 52% (versus current 34.69%) for the gross margin and 19.5% (versus current 0.69%) for the operating margin. To determine the company target margins, I look at the industry averages: for instance, the U.S. industry average margins are 23.30% and the global ones 19.31%.Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/A number that is worth to be noted is the sales to capital ratio (i.e. growth efficiency), which tells us how much we must reinvest to keep our business growing; the higher this number the more efficiently the company is growing. In doing my projections, I decrease this number to 0.95 in year 10 (i.e. industry average).Finally, let's look at the market inputs we need to use in the discounted cash flow model.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportThe implied equity risk premium was computed following the country of incorporation approach, in this case looking only at the U.S. market. The implied equity risk premium at the time of the computation was of 4.02%, well below the historical 3 years median of 5.68%.Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/The cost of capital computations are displayed in the figure below:Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportNow, taking all the projections and discounting the cash flows, I obtain a value per share of $37.15 (19% potential upside); alternatively, if you prefer pricing the company instead of discounting the future cash flows, I come up with a value of $52.8 (70% potential upside). The pricing value is obtained by taking the expected EPS in 2025 of 1.76 and multiplying it for a P/E of 30. The P/E of 30 is obtained by looking at the current Palantir (PLTR) P/E value of 125 and bringing it down to what I believe is a more reasonable value.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportCatalystsAt this point, you may be asking yourself: What kind of catalysts may make the value converge to the “fair” price? I would like to underline some possible catalysts, which are sector and company related.The first big catalyst I see comes from the companies themselves. By understanding the fact that the cyber threat is a real danger, which harms the business not only economically but also reputationally, businesses will be willing to do everything is in their power to protect themselves against such risks. Thus, they will invest heavily in cyberdefense.The second catalyst comes from the digital transformation we are living now, which will be even bigger in years to come. As we know, technology is bad and good at the same time, where the former comes from cyber-attacks.The third catalyst comes from the governments increasing spending in cybersecurity related projects, which is driven by two reasons: the willingness to protect critical information and the willingness to become leaders in the field.Source:Belfercenter.orgTechnical AnalysisSource:TradingView.comFor what concerns technical analysis, the formation I see is a “Flags, High and Tigh” with the odds in the stock’s favor. Let me explain why. First, this kind of formation is the one which I mostly love, since it offers the best performance: the average rise after the breakout is of 69% in a bull market and of 40% in a bear market; as right now, we are in a bull market according to the economic business cycle indicators. Then, if we look at the volume, we can see a falling volume structure, which makes the breakout performance even stronger (71% vs 52% for rising volume trend) and, given the current price levels, I see a risk-reward ratio of 2.9 over a period of 6 months to 1 year.Final ThoughtsThe digitalization process brings many benefits with it, but it also brings many risks. In a world in which enterprises are becoming more and more digital, cybersecurity represents a key piece to complete the puzzle. Not many have understood it yet, but when they will do, the trend will be already running at a fast pace and joining the train will offer a much lower risk-reward ratio.Even if Telos is not a newly founded company, it knows well the industry in which it operates and it is highly adaptable at the evolving environment. Going forward, the key metric to look at is its ability to expand in the commercial market, both domestic and international.Currently, it shows buying signals on both the fundamental and technical side and this should be taken into account. Especially for short-term investors (i.e. investors with a time horizon less than 1 year), I see an opportunity to get a return in the range of 40-60% over the next 6 to 12 months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372163179,"gmtCreate":1619186475391,"gmtModify":1704720976821,"author":{"id":"3563776434650320","authorId":"3563776434650320","name":"LWLz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae90cbc33da8785ab625a7bfbf475dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563776434650320","idStr":"3563776434650320"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment ","listText":"Like and comment ","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372163179","repostId":"1143062408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143062408","pubTimestamp":1619162341,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143062408?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-23 15:19","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Names Wong as New Finance Minister in Cabinet Shake-Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143062408","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Lawrence Wong was named Singapore’s next finance minister in a cabinetreshuffleFriday, boosting his ","content":"<p>Lawrence Wong was named Singapore’s next finance minister in a cabinetreshuffleFriday, boosting his prominence as the city-state reboots its leadership transition plan.</p>\n<p>The appointment follows Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat’s surprise announcement about two weeks ago that he’sstepping asideas the designated successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong within the People’s Action Party, which has led the country since independence. That forced changes to the long-telegraphed transition, leaving the party to seek a successor among its younger leaders before the next election due by 2025.</p>\n<p>Since founding father Lee Kuan Yew relinquished power some three decades ago, Singapore’s politics have been so well choreographed and predictable that they’re often joked about as dull. Local markets barely budged on Heng’s announcement earlier this month that he was stepping out of the running. Analysts have said they expect Singapore to remain politically stable.</p>\n<p>Though no clear successor to Lee was identified Friday, the finance minister selection could be a signal of who among the party’s “fourth-generation” leaders ultimately might be positioned for the top job. Heng was named finance chief in 2015 and added the deputy prime minister role to his portfolio in 2019. Lee himself was also finance minister previously, though his predecessor Goh Chok Tong didn’t hold that role.</p>\n<p><b>Covid Leadership</b></p>\n<p>Wong, 48, has seen his profile rise as co-chair of the government task force for fighting Covid-19. His role as second minister for finance provided a smooth path to the ministry’s top job.</p>\n<p>“Lawrence has been assisting Swee Keat as Second Minister since 2016, so he has the experience, and is a natural fit for the job,” Prime Minister Lee said at a briefing Friday.</p>\n<p>Known for a no-nonsense speaking manner, Wong played a critical role in helping to bring the pandemic under control in Singapore, with measures such as mandatory mask-wearing and strict social gathering rules.</p>\n<p>Before his appointment as minister of education and second minister of finance after last year’s election, he also oversaw a closely-watched property sector as minister for national development.</p>\n<p>Wong began his career as a civil servant, later serving as chief executive of the Energy Market Authority and as principal private secretary to Lee.</p>\n<p>Here are other changes to the cabinet, with the appointments taking effect on May 15, according to a statement:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Gan Kim Yong will be trade and industry minister</li>\n <li>S. Iswaran will be transport minister</li>\n <li>Chan Chun Sing will be education minister</li>\n <li>Ong Ye Kung will be health minister</li>\n <li>Josephine Teo will be communications and information minister, and continue as second minister for home affairs</li>\n <li>Tan See Leng will be manpower minister</li>\n</ul>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Names Wong as New Finance Minister in Cabinet Shake-Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Names Wong as New Finance Minister in Cabinet Shake-Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-23 15:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-23/singapore-names-wong-finance-minister-in-cabinet-shake-up-cna?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Lawrence Wong was named Singapore’s next finance minister in a cabinetreshuffleFriday, boosting his prominence as the city-state reboots its leadership transition plan.\nThe appointment follows Deputy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-23/singapore-names-wong-finance-minister-in-cabinet-shake-up-cna?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-23/singapore-names-wong-finance-minister-in-cabinet-shake-up-cna?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143062408","content_text":"Lawrence Wong was named Singapore’s next finance minister in a cabinetreshuffleFriday, boosting his prominence as the city-state reboots its leadership transition plan.\nThe appointment follows Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat’s surprise announcement about two weeks ago that he’sstepping asideas the designated successor to Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong within the People’s Action Party, which has led the country since independence. That forced changes to the long-telegraphed transition, leaving the party to seek a successor among its younger leaders before the next election due by 2025.\nSince founding father Lee Kuan Yew relinquished power some three decades ago, Singapore’s politics have been so well choreographed and predictable that they’re often joked about as dull. Local markets barely budged on Heng’s announcement earlier this month that he was stepping out of the running. Analysts have said they expect Singapore to remain politically stable.\nThough no clear successor to Lee was identified Friday, the finance minister selection could be a signal of who among the party’s “fourth-generation” leaders ultimately might be positioned for the top job. Heng was named finance chief in 2015 and added the deputy prime minister role to his portfolio in 2019. Lee himself was also finance minister previously, though his predecessor Goh Chok Tong didn’t hold that role.\nCovid Leadership\nWong, 48, has seen his profile rise as co-chair of the government task force for fighting Covid-19. His role as second minister for finance provided a smooth path to the ministry’s top job.\n“Lawrence has been assisting Swee Keat as Second Minister since 2016, so he has the experience, and is a natural fit for the job,” Prime Minister Lee said at a briefing Friday.\nKnown for a no-nonsense speaking manner, Wong played a critical role in helping to bring the pandemic under control in Singapore, with measures such as mandatory mask-wearing and strict social gathering rules.\nBefore his appointment as minister of education and second minister of finance after last year’s election, he also oversaw a closely-watched property sector as minister for national development.\nWong began his career as a civil servant, later serving as chief executive of the Energy Market Authority and as principal private secretary to Lee.\nHere are other changes to the cabinet, with the appointments taking effect on May 15, according to a statement:\n\nGan Kim Yong will be trade and industry minister\nS. Iswaran will be transport minister\nChan Chun Sing will be education minister\nOng Ye Kung will be health minister\nJosephine Teo will be communications and information minister, and continue as second minister for home affairs\nTan See Leng will be manpower minister","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":192093165,"gmtCreate":1621128190557,"gmtModify":1704353067098,"author":{"id":"3563776434650320","authorId":"3563776434650320","name":"LWLz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae90cbc33da8785ab625a7bfbf475dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563776434650320","authorIdStr":"3563776434650320"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192093165","repostId":"1129126046","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129126046","pubTimestamp":1620964164,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129126046?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Big Opportunity In A Big Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129126046","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.</li><li>Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is the latest example of a ransomware attack).</li><li>The estimated intrinsic value for the company is $37.15 (19% potential upside), while the pricing value is $52.8 (70% potential upside).</li></ul><p>Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Deniel Selivanov as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.</p><p><b>Overview</b></p><p>Telos (TLS) is a cybersecurity play, which has exposure on both sides of the market, government and commercial. With the last two big cyberattacks which involved U.S. companies, namely the SolarWinds attack and Colonial Pipeline attack, we can clearly see how cybersecurity will be one of the future big trends that, if taken at the right time, offers big opportunity with big gains.</p><p>Telos stock has rallied 42.67% since the IPO in 2020, outperforming the 15.3% rise in the S&P 500 over the same time period.</p><p>I believe that the 25% correction in Telos stock from its 52-Week high offers a good opportunity to take a position in this cybersecurity company.</p><p><b>Long Term: Sector Outlook Overview</b></p><p>The pandemic made the digitalization process accelerate at a very fast pace and, if from one side the digitalization process brings a lot of benefits, it also brings big risks with it, namely the cyber-risk. In 2020 many companies were \"forced\" to become more digital and for time-constraints reasons everything was done without taking into account possible mistakes along the road. These mistakes, however, didn't pass unnoticed.</p><p>The cyber-attacks in 2020 increased at the same pace as the digitalization transformation, especially malware and ransomware type of attacks. But why should we worry about cyber risk? A cyber-attack could lead to business interruption events: for instance, the last one involved the Colonial Pipeline, which represent not only a monetary cost for the company (whichincreased by 72%in the last 5 years) but also a reputational one.</p><p>Thelatest reportpublished by Allianz (the Allianz Risk Barometer report 2021) has found that the most important global and business risks for 2021 are: business interruption (top 1), pandemic outbreak (top 2), and cyber incidents (top 3). If we consider the business interruption as a consequence of a cyber-attack, we can clearly visualize how the cyber threat is the most important risk for businesses, not only in 2021 but especially in the years to come.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e3117e4d5051a7e658c17f734e107e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Agcs.allianz.com</span></p><p>Among different kinds of cyber-attacks, malware and ransomware are those which are spreading faster than others. Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third, (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is an example of ransomware attack). Once hit by such attacks, companies tend to pay what a ransom attacker demand; however, this is only the direct cost associated with the attack and we should not forget about all the indirect costs associated with it, which are much bigger.</p><p>Emsisoft, a company specialized in anti-malware solutions, estimated that in 2020 the ransom demand (i.e. the direct cost) representedonly 6%of the total cost in which companies incurred to deal with the cyber-attack. Finally, we must take into account that companies' willingness to pay attackers increases the number and the complexity of cyber-attacks.</p><p>In thelatest research(the Market Research Report - 2021), conducted by Fortune Business Insights, the global cyber security market size for 2020 is estimated to be around $153.16 billion and it is expected to be worth $366.10 billion in 2028 (CAGR of 12%). However, I believe that the market can be much bigger, driven by the fact that cybersecurity will become a critical element, especially in a world in which everything tends to be digital. Nonetheless, as stated by the company, Telos sees a total addressable market at$80 billion.</p><p><b>Company Products Overview</b></p><p>Telos is a cybersecurity company that offers software-based security solutions to U.S. federal government (e.g., Department of Defence, Central Intelligence Agency, etc.) and enterprises (e.g., Amazon (AMZN), Citigroup (CITI), Microsoft(MSFT), etc.). The company was founded in 1969 and its mission is to focus on the needs of its customers. In fact, Telos puts always customer needs at first place, which means offering solutions or improvements required by its clients. Telos's ability to be a customer-centric organization can be clearly seen through the numbers, since 85% of Telos revenues are recurring (and approximately 50% of total revenue comes from segments with no or limited competition).</p><p>The company offers different solution, among others:</p><ol><li><b>Telos Xacta:</b>is a solution that embodies two main functions: first, to continuously manage the cyber risk (security assessment for instance); and second, to help organizations manage security compliance. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4d0337daeb5f6d1476c5006b87b257\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Telos.comThe product is very appreciated by its customer since it is used not only by the U.S. federal government, but also by big clouds providers, such as AWS and Microsoft Azure.</span></p></li><li><b>Telos Ghost:</b>is a solution that we could see as VPN 2.0, summarized by the company as:<i>\"you can't exploit what you can't see\".</i>Nowadays, more and more people are using VPN to try to protect themselves against possible threats or just because they want to remain anonymous in the Internet. However, this is not enough, especially if you are a manager of a big company and you exchange business critical information with others. This is where Telos Ghost comes in your help: it creates a fully secured network, where all the data are encrypted, user information (e.g., location and identity) are hidden, and the company's network is protected against any possible cyber threat. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:<i>Telos.com</i></li><li><b>Telos ID:</b>is an identity management solution, which uses technologies, such as fuse biometrics, credentials, etc., to make sure that only specific persons can have access to sensitive information. It is a dominant solution among U.S. federal agencies, but it is also gaining popularity among enterprises.</li></ol><p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p>Let's now perform a DCF analysis. Fundamentally, the company has big opportunities to offer, even if not fully yet. Let's start by looking at the cost structure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0b4e8cab77dfeca9a4ebca5df711f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>From the figure above we can clearly see how services represent the biggest portion of costs, namely 91% for the last year (versus 5 year average of 87%), and are those responsible for keeping the operating margins relatively low. On the other side, as we can imagine, the biggest portion of revenues comes from services, namely 89.6%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98cdbc7405967c885a87824acff198e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>In particular, it is worth noting the changing growth trajectory which started in 2017 as a direct response to new business goals definition. In 2017, Telos started to invest into new products and solutions to expand its addressable market. These revenues growth dynamics are expected to keep increasing in line with its accelerating partnership programs and the strong brand name that company has in the industry.</p><p>Before starting doing any projection, I retrieved 5 years of historical data to better understand how the company works. I present below the historical data and the projections I made for the years to come:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d814ffc0af7d3802cda7521d9b7321a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>At first sight, numbers don’t seem to be that promising, but we should not jump at that conclusion too fast and we should instead think out of the box. Until 2017, Telos used to work more with the government, but since 2018 its strategy has changed. In fact, as stated by the company, Telos is now focusing on leveraging its security solutions by expanding their presence in commercial markets; they do this by developing new solutions and strengthening the current ones.</p><p>In particular, the company is focusing on improving its margins and revenues by expanding its partner program to speed up the scaling in the commercial and international markets. In fact, this is what they are doing: as right now, both Telos Ghost and Xacta are available through various AWS and Microsoft Azure marketplace. Now, in light of this, and considering also the willingness of president Joe Biden to put more efforts and money into cybersecurity projects, I allow the company to grow at a CAGR of 33% in the years 2 to 5 and then I steadily decrease the growth rate to 1.58% in year 10. Why 33%? Well, it's purely subjective. I look at the company revenue growth in recent years, the company revenues relative to the overall market size and to larger players in the sector.</p><p>Now, for what concern margins, I believe that they can be improved, so I increase them to what I consider reasonable levels given the company business: 52% (versus current 34.69%) for the gross margin and 19.5% (versus current 0.69%) for the operating margin. To determine the company target margins, I look at the industry averages: for instance, the U.S. industry average margins are 23.30% and the global ones 19.31%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433b6939a7b8156a6b622f453033f8bf\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/</span></p><p>A number that is worth to be noted is the sales to capital ratio (i.e. growth efficiency), which tells us how much we must reinvest to keep our business growing; the higher this number the more efficiently the company is growing. In doing my projections, I decrease this number to 0.95 in year 10 (i.e. industry average).</p><p>Finally, let's look at the market inputs we need to use in the discounted cash flow model.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8935dcbda0d8246faca532f5e8c18cf8\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>The implied equity risk premium was computed following the country of incorporation approach, in this case looking only at the U.S. market. The implied equity risk premium at the time of the computation was of 4.02%, well below the historical 3 years median of 5.68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33334f3b9b8fc28838136eef10d07e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/</span></p><p>The cost of capital computations are displayed in the figure below:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be84b5939fcc6c091f8ad8b44872560e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"84\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p>Now, taking all the projections and discounting the cash flows, I obtain a value per share of $37.15 (19% potential upside); alternatively, if you prefer pricing the company instead of discounting the future cash flows, I come up with a value of $52.8 (70% potential upside). The pricing value is obtained by taking the expected EPS in 2025 of 1.76 and multiplying it for a P/E of 30. The P/E of 30 is obtained by looking at the current Palantir (PLTR) P/E value of 125 and bringing it down to what I believe is a more reasonable value.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2f928594eb8d7e4f3427fbf22ba1533\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K report</span></p><p><b>Catalysts</b></p><p>At this point, you may be asking yourself: What kind of catalysts may make the value converge to the “fair” price? I would like to underline some possible catalysts, which are sector and company related.</p><ul><li>The first big catalyst I see comes from the companies themselves. By understanding the fact that the cyber threat is a real danger, which harms the business not only economically but also reputationally, businesses will be willing to do everything is in their power to protect themselves against such risks. Thus, they will invest heavily in cyberdefense.</li><li>The second catalyst comes from the digital transformation we are living now, which will be even bigger in years to come. As we know, technology is bad and good at the same time, where the former comes from cyber-attacks.</li><li>The third catalyst comes from the governments increasing spending in cybersecurity related projects, which is driven by two reasons: the willingness to protect critical information and the willingness to become leaders in the field.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21cad07a429fd8674ad8cfab24a091b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Belfercenter.org</span></p></li></ul><p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb1ef868b278a8c94a56a2ddb177563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p>For what concerns technical analysis, the formation I see is a “Flags, High and Tigh” with the odds in the stock’s favor. Let me explain why. First, this kind of formation is the one which I mostly love, since it offers the best performance: the average rise after the breakout is of 69% in a bull market and of 40% in a bear market; as right now, we are in a bull market according to the economic business cycle indicators. Then, if we look at the volume, we can see a falling volume structure, which makes the breakout performance even stronger (71% vs 52% for rising volume trend) and, given the current price levels, I see a risk-reward ratio of 2.9 over a period of 6 months to 1 year.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>The digitalization process brings many benefits with it, but it also brings many risks. In a world in which enterprises are becoming more and more digital, cybersecurity represents a key piece to complete the puzzle. Not many have understood it yet, but when they will do, the trend will be already running at a fast pace and joining the train will offer a much lower risk-reward ratio.</p><p>Even if Telos is not a newly founded company, it knows well the industry in which it operates and it is highly adaptable at the evolving environment. Going forward, the key metric to look at is its ability to expand in the commercial market, both domestic and international.</p><p>Currently, it shows buying signals on both the fundamental and technical side and this should be taken into account. Especially for short-term investors (i.e. investors with a time horizon less than 1 year), I see an opportunity to get a return in the range of 40-60% over the next 6 to 12 months.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Big Opportunity In A Big Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Big Opportunity In A Big Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 11:49 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLS":"Telos Corporation"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4428510-telos-a-big-opportunity-in-a-big-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1129126046","content_text":"SummaryThe global cybersecurity market is valued at $153.16 billion in 2020 and it is expected to be valued at $366.10 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 12%.Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is the latest example of a ransomware attack).The estimated intrinsic value for the company is $37.15 (19% potential upside), while the pricing value is $52.8 (70% potential upside).Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Deniel Selivanov as a new contributor. It's easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium.OverviewTelos (TLS) is a cybersecurity play, which has exposure on both sides of the market, government and commercial. With the last two big cyberattacks which involved U.S. companies, namely the SolarWinds attack and Colonial Pipeline attack, we can clearly see how cybersecurity will be one of the future big trends that, if taken at the right time, offers big opportunity with big gains.Telos stock has rallied 42.67% since the IPO in 2020, outperforming the 15.3% rise in the S&P 500 over the same time period.I believe that the 25% correction in Telos stock from its 52-Week high offers a good opportunity to take a position in this cybersecurity company.Long Term: Sector Outlook OverviewThe pandemic made the digitalization process accelerate at a very fast pace and, if from one side the digitalization process brings a lot of benefits, it also brings big risks with it, namely the cyber-risk. In 2020 many companies were \"forced\" to become more digital and for time-constraints reasons everything was done without taking into account possible mistakes along the road. These mistakes, however, didn't pass unnoticed.The cyber-attacks in 2020 increased at the same pace as the digitalization transformation, especially malware and ransomware type of attacks. But why should we worry about cyber risk? A cyber-attack could lead to business interruption events: for instance, the last one involved the Colonial Pipeline, which represent not only a monetary cost for the company (whichincreased by 72%in the last 5 years) but also a reputational one.Thelatest reportpublished by Allianz (the Allianz Risk Barometer report 2021) has found that the most important global and business risks for 2021 are: business interruption (top 1), pandemic outbreak (top 2), and cyber incidents (top 3). If we consider the business interruption as a consequence of a cyber-attack, we can clearly visualize how the cyber threat is the most important risk for businesses, not only in 2021 but especially in the years to come.Source:Agcs.allianz.comAmong different kinds of cyber-attacks, malware and ransomware are those which are spreading faster than others. Throughout 2020, malware and ransomware attacks increased by more than a third, (e.g., Colonial Pipeline is an example of ransomware attack). Once hit by such attacks, companies tend to pay what a ransom attacker demand; however, this is only the direct cost associated with the attack and we should not forget about all the indirect costs associated with it, which are much bigger.Emsisoft, a company specialized in anti-malware solutions, estimated that in 2020 the ransom demand (i.e. the direct cost) representedonly 6%of the total cost in which companies incurred to deal with the cyber-attack. Finally, we must take into account that companies' willingness to pay attackers increases the number and the complexity of cyber-attacks.In thelatest research(the Market Research Report - 2021), conducted by Fortune Business Insights, the global cyber security market size for 2020 is estimated to be around $153.16 billion and it is expected to be worth $366.10 billion in 2028 (CAGR of 12%). However, I believe that the market can be much bigger, driven by the fact that cybersecurity will become a critical element, especially in a world in which everything tends to be digital. Nonetheless, as stated by the company, Telos sees a total addressable market at$80 billion.Company Products OverviewTelos is a cybersecurity company that offers software-based security solutions to U.S. federal government (e.g., Department of Defence, Central Intelligence Agency, etc.) and enterprises (e.g., Amazon (AMZN), Citigroup (CITI), Microsoft(MSFT), etc.). The company was founded in 1969 and its mission is to focus on the needs of its customers. In fact, Telos puts always customer needs at first place, which means offering solutions or improvements required by its clients. Telos's ability to be a customer-centric organization can be clearly seen through the numbers, since 85% of Telos revenues are recurring (and approximately 50% of total revenue comes from segments with no or limited competition).The company offers different solution, among others:Telos Xacta:is a solution that embodies two main functions: first, to continuously manage the cyber risk (security assessment for instance); and second, to help organizations manage security compliance. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:Telos.comThe product is very appreciated by its customer since it is used not only by the U.S. federal government, but also by big clouds providers, such as AWS and Microsoft Azure.Telos Ghost:is a solution that we could see as VPN 2.0, summarized by the company as:\"you can't exploit what you can't see\".Nowadays, more and more people are using VPN to try to protect themselves against possible threats or just because they want to remain anonymous in the Internet. However, this is not enough, especially if you are a manager of a big company and you exchange business critical information with others. This is where Telos Ghost comes in your help: it creates a fully secured network, where all the data are encrypted, user information (e.g., location and identity) are hidden, and the company's network is protected against any possible cyber threat. As stated by the company, the main advantages coming from using Telos Xacta are:Source:Telos.comTelos ID:is an identity management solution, which uses technologies, such as fuse biometrics, credentials, etc., to make sure that only specific persons can have access to sensitive information. It is a dominant solution among U.S. federal agencies, but it is also gaining popularity among enterprises.Discounted Cash Flow ModelLet's now perform a DCF analysis. Fundamentally, the company has big opportunities to offer, even if not fully yet. Let's start by looking at the cost structure.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportFrom the figure above we can clearly see how services represent the biggest portion of costs, namely 91% for the last year (versus 5 year average of 87%), and are those responsible for keeping the operating margins relatively low. On the other side, as we can imagine, the biggest portion of revenues comes from services, namely 89.6%.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportIn particular, it is worth noting the changing growth trajectory which started in 2017 as a direct response to new business goals definition. In 2017, Telos started to invest into new products and solutions to expand its addressable market. These revenues growth dynamics are expected to keep increasing in line with its accelerating partnership programs and the strong brand name that company has in the industry.Before starting doing any projection, I retrieved 5 years of historical data to better understand how the company works. I present below the historical data and the projections I made for the years to come:Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportAt first sight, numbers don’t seem to be that promising, but we should not jump at that conclusion too fast and we should instead think out of the box. Until 2017, Telos used to work more with the government, but since 2018 its strategy has changed. In fact, as stated by the company, Telos is now focusing on leveraging its security solutions by expanding their presence in commercial markets; they do this by developing new solutions and strengthening the current ones.In particular, the company is focusing on improving its margins and revenues by expanding its partner program to speed up the scaling in the commercial and international markets. In fact, this is what they are doing: as right now, both Telos Ghost and Xacta are available through various AWS and Microsoft Azure marketplace. Now, in light of this, and considering also the willingness of president Joe Biden to put more efforts and money into cybersecurity projects, I allow the company to grow at a CAGR of 33% in the years 2 to 5 and then I steadily decrease the growth rate to 1.58% in year 10. Why 33%? Well, it's purely subjective. I look at the company revenue growth in recent years, the company revenues relative to the overall market size and to larger players in the sector.Now, for what concern margins, I believe that they can be improved, so I increase them to what I consider reasonable levels given the company business: 52% (versus current 34.69%) for the gross margin and 19.5% (versus current 0.69%) for the operating margin. To determine the company target margins, I look at the industry averages: for instance, the U.S. industry average margins are 23.30% and the global ones 19.31%.Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/A number that is worth to be noted is the sales to capital ratio (i.e. growth efficiency), which tells us how much we must reinvest to keep our business growing; the higher this number the more efficiently the company is growing. In doing my projections, I decrease this number to 0.95 in year 10 (i.e. industry average).Finally, let's look at the market inputs we need to use in the discounted cash flow model.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportThe implied equity risk premium was computed following the country of incorporation approach, in this case looking only at the U.S. market. The implied equity risk premium at the time of the computation was of 4.02%, well below the historical 3 years median of 5.68%.Source:Pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/The cost of capital computations are displayed in the figure below:Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportNow, taking all the projections and discounting the cash flows, I obtain a value per share of $37.15 (19% potential upside); alternatively, if you prefer pricing the company instead of discounting the future cash flows, I come up with a value of $52.8 (70% potential upside). The pricing value is obtained by taking the expected EPS in 2025 of 1.76 and multiplying it for a P/E of 30. The P/E of 30 is obtained by looking at the current Palantir (PLTR) P/E value of 125 and bringing it down to what I believe is a more reasonable value.Source:Author’s Estimates using data from latest 10K reportCatalystsAt this point, you may be asking yourself: What kind of catalysts may make the value converge to the “fair” price? I would like to underline some possible catalysts, which are sector and company related.The first big catalyst I see comes from the companies themselves. By understanding the fact that the cyber threat is a real danger, which harms the business not only economically but also reputationally, businesses will be willing to do everything is in their power to protect themselves against such risks. Thus, they will invest heavily in cyberdefense.The second catalyst comes from the digital transformation we are living now, which will be even bigger in years to come. As we know, technology is bad and good at the same time, where the former comes from cyber-attacks.The third catalyst comes from the governments increasing spending in cybersecurity related projects, which is driven by two reasons: the willingness to protect critical information and the willingness to become leaders in the field.Source:Belfercenter.orgTechnical AnalysisSource:TradingView.comFor what concerns technical analysis, the formation I see is a “Flags, High and Tigh” with the odds in the stock’s favor. Let me explain why. First, this kind of formation is the one which I mostly love, since it offers the best performance: the average rise after the breakout is of 69% in a bull market and of 40% in a bear market; as right now, we are in a bull market according to the economic business cycle indicators. Then, if we look at the volume, we can see a falling volume structure, which makes the breakout performance even stronger (71% vs 52% for rising volume trend) and, given the current price levels, I see a risk-reward ratio of 2.9 over a period of 6 months to 1 year.Final ThoughtsThe digitalization process brings many benefits with it, but it also brings many risks. In a world in which enterprises are becoming more and more digital, cybersecurity represents a key piece to complete the puzzle. Not many have understood it yet, but when they will do, the trend will be already running at a fast pace and joining the train will offer a much lower risk-reward ratio.Even if Telos is not a newly founded company, it knows well the industry in which it operates and it is highly adaptable at the evolving environment. Going forward, the key metric to look at is its ability to expand in the commercial market, both domestic and international.Currently, it shows buying signals on both the fundamental and technical side and this should be taken into account. Especially for short-term investors (i.e. investors with a time horizon less than 1 year), I see an opportunity to get a return in the range of 40-60% over the next 6 to 12 months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372163179,"gmtCreate":1619186475391,"gmtModify":1704720976821,"author":{"id":"3563776434650320","authorId":"3563776434650320","name":"LWLz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae90cbc33da8785ab625a7bfbf475dd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563776434650320","authorIdStr":"3563776434650320"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment ","listText":"Like and comment ","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372163179","repostId":"1143062408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
