Bin5656 personal page - To The Moon

Bin5656

Bin5656

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2023-11-04

Gogogo tiger tiger tiger

2023-11-03

Happy Halloween gogogo tiger

2023-11-02

Gogogo gogo good game

2023-11-01

Happy Halloween gogogo

2023-10-31

Good game gogogo happy Halloween

2023-04-17

Good game[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-16

Thanks Tiger [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-15

Good game [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-14

Good game [无语] [无语] [无语] [无语] [无语]

2023-04-13

come come come

2023-04-12

Thanks you Tiger for the free share[白眼] [白眼] [白眼] [白眼] [白眼]

2023-04-11

Love this game very much

2023-04-10

Good luck everyone[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2023-04-09

Gogogo gogo. [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2023-04-08

Free Disney share good game Tiger broker [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

2023-04-07

Good game Tiger [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2022-04-17

Nice

The first 25BP RRR cut in history is very informative

2022-04-14

Good

@TigerEvents:🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!

2022-02-07

Huhuhu

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944054937","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945435410,"gmtCreate":1681539018330,"gmtModify":1681539023150,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Good game&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"Good game [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945435410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945683134,"gmtCreate":1681451662829,"gmtModify":1681451667356,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;","listText":"Good game&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;[无语]&nbsp;","text":"Good game [无语] [无语] [无语] [无语] 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[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946455213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946650964,"gmtCreate":1680951229058,"gmtModify":1680951233980,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Free Disney share good game Tiger broker&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"Free Disney share good game Tiger broker&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"Free Disney share good game Tiger broker [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946650964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946396803,"gmtCreate":1680854167403,"gmtModify":1680854172551,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game Tiger&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Good game Tiger&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Good game Tiger [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946396803","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9081957570,"gmtCreate":1650186040419,"gmtModify":1676534665613,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9081957570","repostId":"2227983921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2227983921","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650078780,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2227983921?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-16 11:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The first 25BP RRR cut in history is very informative","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2227983921","media":"申万宏源","summary":"事件：4月15日晚间，央行宣布实施历史上首次25BP的降准，迅速落实了两天前国常会提出的“适时降准”要求。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%；此次降准释放长期资金约5300亿。去年央行曾明确解释过，两次各50BP降准之后，对商业银行形成的成本下降幅度可以支持一次1Y LPR 5BP的下调。从这个角度再看这次25BP降准，传递出的信号恰恰是着力避免市场形成新的LPR下调的预期。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Event: On the evening of April 15th, the central bank announced the implementation of the first 25BP RRR cut in history, and quickly implemented the requirement of \"timely RRR cut\" put forward by the National Standing Committee two days ago.</b>According to official website of the People's Bank of China, in order to \"support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs\", it was decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25th (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%); In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points. After this downward adjustment, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%; This RRR cut releases about 530 billion long-term funds.</p><p><b>The RRR cut narrowed to 25BP for the first time, highlighting that the current urgency of liquidity is not high. Under the background that the central bank's foreign exchange reserve operating profits are turned over to the finance, which is expected to push up the growth rate of base money in the second quarter, this RRR cut is equivalent to \"replacing the reverse repurchase at the end of the month\".</b>After the Standing Committee repeated the \"timely RRR cut\", the market has formed a strong expectation for the recent RRR cut, but the extremely narrow decline of 25BP is beyond the market's expectations. Why come up with such a slightly cautious range?<b>From the perspective of \"quantity\" of liquidity supply, the factors of the two major fiscal and monetary policy operations make the liquidity itself relatively abundant in the second quarter:</b>First, this year's fiscal expenditure is obviously more positive than last year's. Last year's excess government deposits have also become an important means of financial financing this year. The excess reduction of government deposits has provided important support for the high increase of base money. In March, government deposits decreased by 1,265.7 billion yuan in a single month, a sharp decrease of 700 billion yuan year-on-year. This item alone has made an incremental contribution of 1.2 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of M2. In addition, from January to March, the net incremental investment of MLF was 400 billion yuan. In March, on the basis of the year-on-year increase of M2 by 0.5% to 9.7%, the calculated excess reserve rate still reached 1.6%, indicating that the inter-bank liquidity is already quite abundant. Second, the second quarter is about to usher in the peak of a trillion value-added tax credit refund during the year, and the financing mode of turning over the operating profits of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will also bring about a large-scale investment of about 600 billion incremental base money in the current quarter. Therefore, the liquidity in the second quarter is quite abundant, and it is not difficult to ensure the growth rate of M2 of about 9.0%-9.5%.<b>In this sense, the liquidity release of 25BP totaling 530 billion is actually equivalent to the replacement of reverse repurchase at the end of the month. It is expected that the balance of reverse repurchase at the end of the month can be kept at about 50 billion before August, and the reason for still operating is more for continuous reverse repurchase quotations.</b></p><p><b>Since the liquidity is not tight, why implement a small-scale RRR cut? The goal of this operation is directly to fully meet the short-term, medium-and long-term loan needs that enterprises may concentrate under the influence of the epidemic, and reduce the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises.</b>This RRR cut will reduce the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan on an annualized basis. Although the total scale is not large,<b>However, if it is concentrated on new loans, and concentrated on the industries that have a serious impact on the epidemic and the reduction of credit costs of private and small and micro enterprises, it can achieve obvious results</b>。 Looking back at February-April, 2020, under the background that the epidemic generally impacted the cash flow of domestic enterprises, there was an ultra-seasonal peak of short-term loans of enterprises and a strong demand for long-term loans. At that time, the sharp upward trend of M2 growth rate was also well guaranteed by the RRR cut and the operation of base money.<b>This small-scale RRR cut is another round of manifestation of the credit expansion target at that time, and the magnitude is more accurate than the operation at that time. It may have fully considered the problem of avoiding the new structural distortion caused by the disguised flow of credit from the enterprise sector to the real estate and other asset markets.</b></p><p><b>After this narrow range of RRR reduction, the probability of LPR reduction has dropped substantially, and there is a 50% probability of another RRR reduction of 25BP after September.</b>Last year, the central bank clearly explained that after two 50BP RRR cuts, the cost reduction for commercial banks can support a 1Y LPR 5BP reduction. Looking at this 25BP RRR cut from this perspective, the signal transmitted is precisely to focus on avoiding the expectation of a new LPR downward adjustment in the market. Considering the asymmetric impact of LPR reduction on real estate demand (real estate bubbles are prone to appear in the first-and second-tier and eastern regions, while the effect of promoting demand release in the third-and fourth-tier and central and western regions is not as good as \"city-specific policies\", and the differentiation between the two may intensify), it is very understandable that the current central bank is cautious about interest rate cut expectations.<b>We expect a low probability of LPR reduction during the year. From the perspective of RRR reduction, the liquidity gap from September to December is relatively likely to expand. The central bank can choose to \"slightly reduce RRR\" by 25BP, or make up for it with 500 billion-800 billion reverse repurchase at the end of the month, both of which can guarantee the year-on-year growth of M2 of about 9.0% this year and the corresponding reasonable expansion of the credit environment. Although the Federal Reserve's rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are ahead of schedule, the spillover effect on China is quite small at a time when the export competitiveness is still generally strong and the overseas financing behavior of enterprises is cautious. The goal of monetary policy operation during the year still focuses on domestic credit expansion, and the main constraint still comes from the differentiation of domestic real estate market structure.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64489fbaf333a819ea51f141715e6a6\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f5c94d913ab62dd3e1814748458780\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acdaa16eb7d807e3e693df277198e53\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Article source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>）</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The first 25BP RRR cut in history is very informative</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe first 25BP RRR cut in history is very informative\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">申万宏源</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-16 11:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Event: On the evening of April 15th, the central bank announced the implementation of the first 25BP RRR cut in history, and quickly implemented the requirement of \"timely RRR cut\" put forward by the National Standing Committee two days ago.</b>According to official website of the People's Bank of China, in order to \"support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs\", it was decided to lower the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25th (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the deposit reserve ratio of 5%); In order to increase support for small and micro enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points. After this downward adjustment, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%; This RRR cut releases about 530 billion long-term funds.</p><p><b>The RRR cut narrowed to 25BP for the first time, highlighting that the current urgency of liquidity is not high. Under the background that the central bank's foreign exchange reserve operating profits are turned over to the finance, which is expected to push up the growth rate of base money in the second quarter, this RRR cut is equivalent to \"replacing the reverse repurchase at the end of the month\".</b>After the Standing Committee repeated the \"timely RRR cut\", the market has formed a strong expectation for the recent RRR cut, but the extremely narrow decline of 25BP is beyond the market's expectations. Why come up with such a slightly cautious range?<b>From the perspective of \"quantity\" of liquidity supply, the factors of the two major fiscal and monetary policy operations make the liquidity itself relatively abundant in the second quarter:</b>First, this year's fiscal expenditure is obviously more positive than last year's. Last year's excess government deposits have also become an important means of financial financing this year. The excess reduction of government deposits has provided important support for the high increase of base money. In March, government deposits decreased by 1,265.7 billion yuan in a single month, a sharp decrease of 700 billion yuan year-on-year. This item alone has made an incremental contribution of 1.2 percentage points to the year-on-year growth rate of M2. In addition, from January to March, the net incremental investment of MLF was 400 billion yuan. In March, on the basis of the year-on-year increase of M2 by 0.5% to 9.7%, the calculated excess reserve rate still reached 1.6%, indicating that the inter-bank liquidity is already quite abundant. Second, the second quarter is about to usher in the peak of a trillion value-added tax credit refund during the year, and the financing mode of turning over the operating profits of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will also bring about a large-scale investment of about 600 billion incremental base money in the current quarter. Therefore, the liquidity in the second quarter is quite abundant, and it is not difficult to ensure the growth rate of M2 of about 9.0%-9.5%.<b>In this sense, the liquidity release of 25BP totaling 530 billion is actually equivalent to the replacement of reverse repurchase at the end of the month. It is expected that the balance of reverse repurchase at the end of the month can be kept at about 50 billion before August, and the reason for still operating is more for continuous reverse repurchase quotations.</b></p><p><b>Since the liquidity is not tight, why implement a small-scale RRR cut? The goal of this operation is directly to fully meet the short-term, medium-and long-term loan needs that enterprises may concentrate under the influence of the epidemic, and reduce the comprehensive financing costs of enterprises.</b>This RRR cut will reduce the capital cost of financial institutions by about 6.5 billion yuan on an annualized basis. Although the total scale is not large,<b>However, if it is concentrated on new loans, and concentrated on the industries that have a serious impact on the epidemic and the reduction of credit costs of private and small and micro enterprises, it can achieve obvious results</b>。 Looking back at February-April, 2020, under the background that the epidemic generally impacted the cash flow of domestic enterprises, there was an ultra-seasonal peak of short-term loans of enterprises and a strong demand for long-term loans. At that time, the sharp upward trend of M2 growth rate was also well guaranteed by the RRR cut and the operation of base money.<b>This small-scale RRR cut is another round of manifestation of the credit expansion target at that time, and the magnitude is more accurate than the operation at that time. It may have fully considered the problem of avoiding the new structural distortion caused by the disguised flow of credit from the enterprise sector to the real estate and other asset markets.</b></p><p><b>After this narrow range of RRR reduction, the probability of LPR reduction has dropped substantially, and there is a 50% probability of another RRR reduction of 25BP after September.</b>Last year, the central bank clearly explained that after two 50BP RRR cuts, the cost reduction for commercial banks can support a 1Y LPR 5BP reduction. Looking at this 25BP RRR cut from this perspective, the signal transmitted is precisely to focus on avoiding the expectation of a new LPR downward adjustment in the market. Considering the asymmetric impact of LPR reduction on real estate demand (real estate bubbles are prone to appear in the first-and second-tier and eastern regions, while the effect of promoting demand release in the third-and fourth-tier and central and western regions is not as good as \"city-specific policies\", and the differentiation between the two may intensify), it is very understandable that the current central bank is cautious about interest rate cut expectations.<b>We expect a low probability of LPR reduction during the year. From the perspective of RRR reduction, the liquidity gap from September to December is relatively likely to expand. The central bank can choose to \"slightly reduce RRR\" by 25BP, or make up for it with 500 billion-800 billion reverse repurchase at the end of the month, both of which can guarantee the year-on-year growth of M2 of about 9.0% this year and the corresponding reasonable expansion of the credit environment. Although the Federal Reserve's rate hike and shrinking balance sheet are ahead of schedule, the spillover effect on China is quite small at a time when the export competitiveness is still generally strong and the overseas financing behavior of enterprises is cautious. The goal of monetary policy operation during the year still focuses on domestic credit expansion, and the main constraint still comes from the differentiation of domestic real estate market structure.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64489fbaf333a819ea51f141715e6a6\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47f5c94d913ab62dd3e1814748458780\" tg-width=\"1056\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4acdaa16eb7d807e3e693df277198e53\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Article source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shen Wan Hongyuan</a>）</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202204162345587913_0.html\">申万宏源</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15ae9f2abd036fa3d016507d9eb2f41e","relate_stocks":{"BK1148":"建筑与工程","09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202204162345587913_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2227983921","content_text":"事件：4月15日晚间，央行宣布实施历史上首次25BP的降准，迅速落实了两天前国常会提出的“适时降准”要求。据人民银行官网，为“支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降”，决定于4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点(不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构)；为加大对小微企业和三农的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%；此次降准释放长期资金约5300亿。降准幅度首次收窄至25BP，凸显当前流动性投放迫切性并不高，在央行外汇储备经营利润上缴财政有望推升二季度基础货币增速的背景下，此次降准相当于“置换月末逆回购”。国常会重提“适时降准”之后，市场对近日降准已经形成强烈预期，但25BP的极窄降幅却是出乎市场预料的，为什么拿出这样一个稍显谨慎的幅度？从流动性供给“量”的角度来看，两大财政货币政策操作配合的因素，令二季度流动性投放本身就比较充裕：其一，今年财政支出较去年明显更加积极，去年多存的政府存款也成为今年重要的财政融资手段，政府存款的多减对基础货币高增提供了重要支持，3月政府存款单月减少达12657亿，同比大幅多减7000亿，仅这一项就对M2同比增速形成了1.2个百分点的增量贡献，加之1-3月MLF增量净投放4000亿，3月在M2同比上行0.5%至9.7%的基础上，测算的超储率仍达到1.6%，显示银行间流动性已经相当充裕。其二，二季度即将迎来万亿增值税留抵退税的年内峰值，其所采用的央行外汇储备经营利润上缴的融资模式也将带来当季约6000亿的增量基础货币大规模投放，从而二季度流动性本就相当充裕，保证9.0%-9.5%左右的M2增速难度并不大。从这个意义上来看，这次25BP合计5300亿的流动性释放，其实相当于对月末逆回购的置换，预计8月之前月末逆回购余额都可以保持在500亿左右的地量，仍进行操作的原因更多是为了有连续的逆回购报价。既然流动性量并不紧张，为何实施小规模降准？本次操作的目标直指充分满足疫情影响下企业可能集中出现的短期和中长期贷款需求，并降低企业综合融资成本。本次降准年化降低金融机构资金成本约65亿元，尽管总规模并不大，但如果集中用于新增贷款投放，并集中导向对疫情影响较为严重的行业和民营、小微企业信贷成本的下降，是可以实现比较明显的效果的。回顾2020年2-4月，疫情普遍冲击国内企业现金流的背景下，就曾出现过企业短期贷款的超季节性高峰、长期贷款需求也较为旺盛，当时M2增速的大幅上行也得到降准、基础货币投放操作的良好保障。这次的小规模降准正是当时的扩信用目标的又一轮体现，且幅度上也较当时的操作更为精确，可能已经充分考虑到避免出现信贷从企业部门变相流向房地产等资产市场导致新的结构扭曲的问题。本次窄幅降准后，LPR下调的概率实质性下降，9月之后有50%的概率再降准25BP。去年央行曾明确解释过，两次各50BP降准之后，对商业银行形成的成本下降幅度可以支持一次1Y LPR 5BP的下调。从这个角度再看这次25BP降准，传递出的信号恰恰是着力避免市场形成新的LPR下调的预期。考虑到LPR下调对房地产需求的非对称影响(一二线、东部地区容易出现地产泡沫，而三四线、中西部地区促进需求释放的效果不如“因城施策”，两者分化可能加剧)，当前央行对降息预期态度谨慎是非常可以理解的。我们预计年内LPR下调的概率较低。从降准的角度来看，9月-12月流动性缺口又相对可能有所扩大，央行既可以选择再“微降准”25BP，也可以用5000亿-8000亿的月末逆回购抵补，两者均可保障今年9.0%左右的M2同比增长和对应的合理扩张的信用环境。而尽管美联储加息、缩表均有提前，但在出口竞争力仍总体强劲、企业境外融资行为谨慎的当下，对我国的外溢效应相当小，年内货币政策操作的目标仍聚焦国内扩信用，而主要约束也仍来自国内房地产市场结构的分化。（文章来源：申万宏源）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089043051,"gmtCreate":1649937791155,"gmtModify":1676534610719,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564092433230738","idStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089043051","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. 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Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942989297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946455213,"gmtCreate":1681034567032,"gmtModify":1681034571763,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564092433230738","authorIdStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo gogo.&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Gogogo gogo.&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Gogogo gogo. [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946455213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":237249758003232,"gmtCreate":1698957986218,"gmtModify":1698957990608,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564092433230738","authorIdStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Halloween gogogo tiger","listText":"Happy Halloween gogogo tiger","text":"Happy Halloween gogogo tiger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/237249758003232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":237153826824200,"gmtCreate":1698934420766,"gmtModify":1698934424888,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564092433230738","authorIdStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo gogo good game","listText":"Gogogo gogo good game","text":"Gogogo gogo good game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/237153826824200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":236738291335288,"gmtCreate":1698832988040,"gmtModify":1698832992058,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564092433230738","authorIdStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Halloween gogogo","listText":"Happy Halloween gogogo","text":"Happy Halloween gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/236738291335288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":236400989835312,"gmtCreate":1698747775657,"gmtModify":1698747779698,"author":{"id":"3564092433230738","authorId":"3564092433230738","name":"Bin5656","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab1ca18ede6fec4aa0d9b9be69d8d6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564092433230738","authorIdStr":"3564092433230738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good game gogogo happy Halloween&nbsp;","listText":"Good game gogogo happy Halloween&nbsp;","text":"Good game gogogo happy Halloween","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/236400989835312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}