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2022-03-13

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Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve "lands its boots" next week?

2021-05-18

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Starting from Soros's bargain-hunting and liquidation of stocks: How to play macro trading

2022-03-18

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rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?

2021-06-22

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2023-03-14

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2023-03-11

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$

2021-05-20

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U.S. and Burundi oil both fell more than 4%, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels

2022-02-02

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February Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the "mean return" market

2021-05-20

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2022-03-19

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Brazil's "Alipay" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session

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23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169147645","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>At one point, it rose more than 40% in the session, the largest intraday gain since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-18 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>At one point, it rose more than 40% in the session, the largest intraday gain since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","BK4558":"双十一","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK1586":"云计算","STNE":"StoneCo","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169147645","content_text":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"STNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035167256,"gmtCreate":1647553642560,"gmtModify":1676534242366,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035167256","repostId":"1181924326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181924326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647506263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181924326?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181924326","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it will fail to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it will fail to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181924326","content_text":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。与此同时，其预测显示，美联储官员预计今年将再加息6次，明年将加息3次。这是一场激进的加息运动，但也引出了一个问题：美联储能否在不严重损害经济的情况下取得成功？“美联储过于激进了”一些经济学家认为，美联储可能不会按预期行事，因为这可能会损害经济。据CNBC报道，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师James Paulsen表示，甚至在会议之前，债券市场就已经消化了7次加息，但许多经济学家曾预计，美联储只会加息5到6次：这在很大程度上已经被消化，但市场面临的更大问题是，我们是否会看到经济衰退。虽然经济学家没有明确预测经济会衰退，但他们确实看到经济增长放缓，而且自从俄罗斯的军事行动以来，前景变得更加不明朗。乌克兰危机也加剧了通胀，因为俄罗斯是主要的大宗商品生产国，而冲突和制裁引发了人们对石油、小麦和其他主要出口产品供应的怀疑。道富环球顾问首席分析师Simona Mocuta明确表示：“我认为美联储在这方面过于激进了。经济如何发展是高度不确定的。它们可能不会实现。但可以肯定的是，美联储传递了一个非常强烈的信息. ...我仍然怀疑是否会有这么多的加息次数。”经济学家们曾预计，美联储在首次加息时，会表现出鹰派或激进的态度。许多人曾认为美联储的决策滞后，因为美联储最初认为通胀是暂时的，而这种观点已经持续了太久。Mocuta表示，美联储可能会先加息几次，但在第三季度时应重新考虑加息的路径和经济状况。如果俄乌冲突有所改善，通胀和供应链方面的一些压力将会缓解。随着时间的推移，疫情带来的一些供应链压力也可能消退。大都会投资管理公司首席市场策略师Drew Matus表示：我想说的是，他们在发出他们需要发出的信号，但他们是否真的采取行动，这是一个悬而未决的问题。数据显示，美国2月份CPI跃升至7.9%的40年新高，预计3月份还会进一步上升。美联储预计，今年的核心通胀率将为4.1%，加息后明年将降至2.6%。他们还预测今年GDP将增长4%，到2023年将降至2.2%。预计失业率将降至3.5%，并将维持在这一水平。Matus认为：“他们的很多预测都是没有意义的...在逻辑上有一些漏洞。”他指出，其中一个漏洞是，如果美联储真的按照预期的速度升息，将无法实现这一经济预测。“他们是认真的”但其他人确实预计美联储会继续加息，一些华尔街人士预测今年将加息7次。美国银行美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：他们是认真的。他们在通胀方面真的远远落后于曲线。那些认为他们不能进行7次加息的人，将面临严重的打击。Grant Thornton的首席经济学家Diane Swonk认为，市场应该相信美联储的话：我们不能冒着滞胀的风险。他们承认，他们现在预计通胀会持续更长时间，而且这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题。看到市场的反应，他们显然不相信。这是美联储加息前景的重大转变。他们这么做是有原因的，不仅仅是美联储的某个人。这是整个美联储的系统性举措，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员也不例外。Swonk表示，美联储对失业率的预测可能不合理，但美联储确实希望给通胀降温。如果美联储官员按照预期的行动，就存在风险。她说：“当我模拟7次加息的情景时，也就是我的预测，我认为经济在下半年的平均增长将止步于1%。这是一次半硬着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036275094,"gmtCreate":1647134817837,"gmtModify":1676534196961,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036275094","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091052984,"gmtCreate":1643752599452,"gmtModify":1676533850624,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰","listText":"💰","text":"💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091052984","repostId":"1109587984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109587984","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1643727865,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109587984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 23:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"February Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109587984","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>On January 1st, the report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21st, the report \"US stocks fluctuate, why did Hong Kong stocks rise?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25th, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks were expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; Energy, telecommunications and general sectors led the gains, while healthcare, discretionary consumer and industrial sectors led the decline.</p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end. U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. The geopolitical risks around Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then the worries about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end TAPER in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weight sector are expected to improve, and the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks is supported.</b></p><p>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>China's real estate policy has improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises reached the best level in history, and the net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of steady growth. 3) In 2022, the closing year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>3. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk: The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 outbreak mutates beyond expectations</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>October 14, 2021 In-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts From\" Quasi-Stagflation \"to\" Recession \"\" proposes,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next scenario with greater probability of China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflation pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound of US bond yield and US dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: The bottom area has repeatedly \"ground the bottom\" and tempered people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>On November 1, 2021, the report \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds the heart more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. November market outlook- -<b>After the rebound in October, the kinetic energy of Hong Kong stocks' continuous rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The December 1, 2021 report \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently deploy long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21, 2022, the report \"Why did Hong Kong stocks rise as US stocks fluctuate?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25, 2022, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month</b></p><p>As of January 31st, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks in January, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.7%, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap shares rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap shares fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap shares fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and General (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Discretionary Consumer (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end.</b>U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, which led to the rebound of U.S. stocks. Look at the results of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US) and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings-according to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix shares after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end Taper in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, in January, the FOMC resolved to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell answered a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, saying that \"he will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters\".</p><p><b>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that 0203 Bank of England, 0223 Bank of New Zealand and 0302 Bank of Canada will also have a high probability of rate hike, and 0203 European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure. In the first quarter, the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased. The credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the further monetary and fiscal easing in the follow-up is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that the economic growth rate is still facing significant downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated epidemic, the consumption growth rate was under pressure again after a brief recovery.</p><p>At present, on the premise that housing is not speculated and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially the broad \"new infrastructure\" that is conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and steady growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for advance batches in 2022 was issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"moderately carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule\". With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The expected improvement of the policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector is supported by the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>China's real estate policy has improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic operation of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the SASAC revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, with operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profit increased by 30.3% and net profit increased by 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the SASAC stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the task of completing stable growth with promoting high-quality development, promote stability with stability, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the last year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>The investment direction of the rebound market in March and February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of the Internet leader: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States declined; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>February Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFebruary Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-01 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>On January 1st, the report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21st, the report \"US stocks fluctuate, why did Hong Kong stocks rise?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25th, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks were expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; Energy, telecommunications and general sectors led the gains, while healthcare, discretionary consumer and industrial sectors led the decline.</p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end. U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. The geopolitical risks around Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then the worries about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end TAPER in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weight sector are expected to improve, and the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks is supported.</b></p><p>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>China's real estate policy has improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises reached the best level in history, and the net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of steady growth. 3) In 2022, the closing year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>3. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk: The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 outbreak mutates beyond expectations</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>October 14, 2021 In-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts From\" Quasi-Stagflation \"to\" Recession \"\" proposes,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next scenario with greater probability of China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflation pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound of US bond yield and US dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: The bottom area has repeatedly \"ground the bottom\" and tempered people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>On November 1, 2021, the report \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds the heart more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. November market outlook- -<b>After the rebound in October, the kinetic energy of Hong Kong stocks' continuous rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The December 1, 2021 report \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently deploy long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21, 2022, the report \"Why did Hong Kong stocks rise as US stocks fluctuate?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25, 2022, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month</b></p><p>As of January 31st, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks in January, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.7%, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap shares rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap shares fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap shares fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and General (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Discretionary Consumer (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end.</b>U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, which led to the rebound of U.S. stocks. Look at the results of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US) and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings-according to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix shares after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end Taper in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, in January, the FOMC resolved to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell answered a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, saying that \"he will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters\".</p><p><b>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that 0203 Bank of England, 0223 Bank of New Zealand and 0302 Bank of Canada will also have a high probability of rate hike, and 0203 European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure. In the first quarter, the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased. The credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the further monetary and fiscal easing in the follow-up is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that the economic growth rate is still facing significant downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated epidemic, the consumption growth rate was under pressure again after a brief recovery.</p><p>At present, on the premise that housing is not speculated and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially the broad \"new infrastructure\" that is conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and steady growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for advance batches in 2022 was issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"moderately carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule\". With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The expected improvement of the policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector is supported by the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>China's real estate policy has improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic operation of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the SASAC revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, with operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profit increased by 30.3% and net profit increased by 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the SASAC stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the task of completing stable growth with promoting high-quality development, promote stability with stability, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the last year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>The investment direction of the rebound market in March and February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of the Internet leader: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States declined; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109587984","content_text":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%。另外，1月份，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；行业上能源业、电讯业和综合业领涨，医疗保健业、非必需性消费业和工业领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet、0202 Meta Platform、0203亚马逊的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度。2月份是北京冬奥会阶段，海外地缘政治风险有望缓和。围绕乌克兰地缘政治风险有望在2月份开始通过谈判逐步降温，进而，对于欧洲能源危机、全球油价风险的担忧将会随之阶段性降温。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份TAPER将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑。稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）2021年央企效益增长创历史最好水平，净利润同比增长29.8%。2）2022年国内稳经济政策发力，国企央企将承担着稳增长的主要任务。3）2022年国企改革三年行动收官之年，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”。中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情：互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会。淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链 2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等 3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。风险提示：中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期报告正文1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》2021年10月14日深度报告《防守反击，投资时钟从“类滞胀”转向“衰退”》提出，今年四季度，中国投资时钟下一步更大概率的场景是衰退，10月份正从“类滞胀”转向衰退；四季度欧美仍有滞胀压力，美债收益率和美元反弹带来短期惊扰。港股：底部区域，反复“磨底”、熬炼人心，其中，10月至11月中旬是好的反弹窗口，但反弹以后，不排除到年底的时候港股会面临动荡。2021年11月1日报告《行情磨“底部”更磨人心》指出：港股仍将在底部区域反复“磨底”，结构性行情仍将跟随A股。11月行情展望——10月份反弹以后，港股四季度持续反弹的动能较弱。2021年12月1日报告《在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光》指出：恒指在反复确认底部、港股悲观情绪集中释放后，港股有望迎来反弹。要在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光，精选并耐心布局长线优质股票。2022年1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。2022年1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。2022年1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%截至1月31日，1月份港股主要指数，恒生指数涨1.7%，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；另外，恒生大型股涨1.0%，恒生中型股跌4.3%，恒生科技跌4.5%，恒生小型股跌6.3%。行业上，恒生能源业（涨10.5%）、电讯业（涨10.1%）和综合业（涨9.0%）领涨，医疗保健业（跌15.1%）、非必需性消费业（跌11.1%）和工业（跌7.3%）领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司(AAPL.US)最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、0202 MetaPlatform(FB.US)、0203亚马逊(AMZN.US)的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度——根据媒体的报道，Netflix(NFLX.US)因业绩不达预期下跌后其联席首席执行官Reed Hastings买入价值2千万美元的Netflix股票。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份Taper将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。关于缩减购债，1月FOMC决议维持当前缩减购债步伐，因此2022年3月联储将结束购债；关于缩表，1月FOMC会后答记者问鲍威尔表示“将在加息至少一次之后开会讨论具体缩表事宜”。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。目前新兴市场加息应对联储收紧，发达市场方面，据媒体报道，市场预计0203英国央行、0223新西兰央行、0302加拿大央行也大概率加息，0203欧洲央行的今年首次利率决议表态也至关重要。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。当前经济增速仍面临下行压力，1季度房地产债务到期压力加大，房地产等领域的信用风险及其对经济的拖累依然不容低估，所以，近期调降MLF、各个期限的LPR是积极的应对信号，后续货币及财政的进一步宽松值得期待。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。在经济增速仍面临较大下行压力的大背景下，2021年四季度，实际GDP同比增长4.0%，较三季度回落0.9个百分点。受疫情反复的拖累，消费增速短暂回暖后再次承压。当前，在房住不炒、不把房地产作为刺激经济的主要手段的前提下，能够快速稳经济的主要手段，依然要依靠“稳基建”，特别是长期有利于调结构短期有利于稳增长的广义“新基建”。根据兴业证券宏观团队研究，2022年提前批次的新增专项债额度已于2021年12月下达，下达时间略早于2021年同期，体现政府“适度超前开展基础设施投资”的决心。随着11月、12月专项债发行加速，12月基建增速已有回暖，往后看，2022年上半年基建投资或迎来发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）1月19日，国新办举行2021年央企经济运行情况新闻发布会，国资委相关负责人在会上透露，2021年中央企业效益增长创历史最好水平，实现营业收入36.3万亿元，同比增长19.5%，利润同比增长了30.3%，净利润同比增长了29.8%。2）在“经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进”的要求下，国资委表示，2022年央企将围绕“两增一控三提高”的目标，把完成稳增长任务和推动高质量发展结合起来，以稳促进、以进固稳，为经济社会发展作出更大贡献。3）同时，2022年是国企改革三年行动收官之年，在实施“双碳”战略、高质量发展、共同富裕的新时代，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。4、风险提示中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090582697,"gmtCreate":1643232635672,"gmtModify":1676533787042,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090582697","repostId":"1147161020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147161020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643203287,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147161020?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-26 21:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande: The company plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next 6 months","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147161020","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26th, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that the board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team of China Evergrande are working together to formulate a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, study various potential plans, and plan to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-26 21:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 26th, at the investor meeting held this evening,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>Executive Director Sean said that the board of directors, risk mitigation committee and management team of China Evergrande are working together to formulate a comprehensive, detailed and effective plan, study various potential plans, and plan to launch a preliminary restructuring plan in the next six months.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147161020","content_text":"1月26日，在今日晚间召开的投资人会议上，中国恒大执行董事肖恩表示，中国恒大董事会及风险化解委员会及管理团队，正共同制定全面、细致、有效的计划，研究各种潜在方案，计划于未来6个月内推出初步重组方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812093766,"gmtCreate":1630540183555,"gmtModify":1676530332302,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"keep 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08:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"HKEx raises the threshold for listing on the main board and strengthens executive misconduct sanctions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137979737","media":"证券时报","summary":"港交所双管齐下，再次修改上市规则，旨在进一步提高香港股市的质量。5月20日，港交所发布两份咨询总结，一是提高主板盈利规定，要求主板上市公司三个会计年度盈利总和达到8000万港元，此项 ...","content":"<p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has adopted a two-pronged approach and revised the listing rules again, aiming to further improve the quality of the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>On May 20th, HKEx issued two consultation summaries. First, it improved the profit regulation of the main board, requiring the total profit of listed companies on the main board to reach HK$ 80 million in three fiscal years. This regulation will come into effect on January 1, 2022.</p><p>The second is the Summary of Disciplinary Action Consultation, which will strengthen the right of HKEx to investigate and impose improper sanctions on individual misconduct and violation of the Listing Rules.</p><p><b>HKEx raises Main Board profitability requirements</b></p><p><b>▲ ▲ ▲</b></p><p>On May 20th, HKEx issued the Consultation Document to amend the Main Board Profit Regulations, and decided to raise the Main Board Profit Regulations by 60%, equivalent to the total profit of HK$80 million, and change the profit distribution to 56%:44%, that is, the minimum total profit required for the first two financial years of the financial reporting period is HK$45 million, and the last financial year is HK$35 million, thus reducing the P/E by 14 times (consistent with the average P/E of Hang Seng Index from 1994 to 2020).</p><p>The above revised earnings increase will take effect on January 1, 2022.</p><p>The profitability requirement is one of the three financial eligibility tests and part of the HKEX assessment in determining the suitability of listing applicants for listing on the Main Board. The Stock Exchange last raised the market capitalization requirement in 2018, when it raised the market capitalization requirement on the main board from HK$200 million to HK$500 million, but it did not raise profits together, resulting in the extended historical P/E of companies that only met the two minimum requirements exploding from 10 times to 25 times, much higher than the market average.</p><p>These listing applicants generally reflect their growth potential with optimistic earnings forecasts submitted to the Stock Exchange, thus justifying their high valuations. However, many of these companies failed to meet the earnings forecast requirements after listing, and their share prices plummeted, resulting in a sharp drop in market value.</p><p>According to the data in the consultation document, the median change in the share price of eligible issuers (not low market cap issuers) from the IPO price in the year after listing (compared with the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index) is-10.1%, compared with-30.8% for ineligible issuers. From the Listing to March 31, 2021, the relevant median change in share price from the Offer Price for the eligible issuer was-34.1%, compared to-65.7% for the ineligible issuer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca061e0dadbed73b2d8949a441a1f95\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the overvaluation of these issuers also makes the market question whether the process of offering price is interfered by behaviors that violate the basic principles of the Listing Rules, such as providing rebates to investors or fabricating the quality of shareholders' assets, thus affecting the overall quality of listed companies on the main board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541c43ba757afb6d94b955451af2dad0\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above-mentioned regulations of HKEx have also encountered strong market opposition. Opponents believe that raising the profit regulations will shut out small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional companies, and the timing of implementation of the recommendations will be inappropriate in terms of the current economic situation, which will also reduce the competitiveness of HKEx.</p><p>In response, HKEx responded, \"We don't think that raising the profit requirements will deprive small and medium-sized enterprises of the opportunity to list in Hong Kong. If any small and medium-sized enterprises fail to meet the requirements of the main board, they can seek GEM listing. The regulatory framework of the exchange is generated by its development history, and it is designed to meet the needs of its own capital market. It will not adversely affect Hong Kong's competitiveness just because of the proposal to raise the profit requirements. Instead, it will consolidate the market positioning of the main board as a host for larger companies, plus sufficient shareholder protection and diversified issuer base, thus consolidating Hong Kong's position as an international financial center.\"</p><p>In a joint statement, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission said that certain IPOs may satisfy the initial listing requirements only in an untrue manner, such as allocating shares to controlled placees at inflated offering prices, thereby meeting the HK$500 million minimum market capitalization requirement in the Main Board Listing Rules. However, the real purpose behind it is to manipulate shares in the future, such as manipulating the stock price by \"singing high bulk cargo\".</p><p>\"As part of the regulatory response to misconduct, we are now stepping up the review of problematic applications that show warning signs, and when necessary, the two regulators will use their regulatory powers to oppose or reject an application,\" said Altley, chief executive of the SFC. The SFC works closely with the HKEx to strictly review the valuation of each listing applicant to assess compliance with minimum market capitalization and other initial listing requirements. \"</p><p><b>Strengthening sanctions for executive misconduct</b></p><p><b>▲ ▲ ▲</b></p><p>In addition to improving the profitability of the Main Board, HKEx also published the \"Disciplinary Action Consultation Summary\". The revised provisions of the Listing Rules, which enhance the right of HKEX to pursue and impose improper sanctions on misconduct and breach of the Listing Rules by individuals, became effective on 3 July 2021.</p><p>The implementation of the recommendations will broaden the scope of reputational sanctions available and ensure that more individuals can be disciplined, including senior management who caused or knowingly participated in breaches of the Listing Rules.</p><p>Specifically, the scope of accountability of listed companies for behaviors that harm investors' rights and interests covers the directors and senior management of relevant listed issuers and any of their subsidiaries. This is to solve the problem that listed issuer executives may avoid accountability by transferring to other positions in the issuer group or subsidiaries.</p><p>If the case involves more serious behavior, HKEx will not only issue a statement to individual persons that harms investors' rights and interests, but also take certain measures to hold them accountable, including prohibiting the listed issuer from entering the market during a specified period in addition to suspension or cancellation of listing status.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>Jon Witts, Head of Rules Enforcement of the Listing Division, said: \"Following this amendment to the Listing Rules, individuals who breach the Listing Rules or engage in misconduct will be held liable, which helps to ensure that the disciplinary framework of the Stock Exchange remains sound and effective to enhance the quality of the market and protect the interests of investors.\"</p>","source":"tonghuashun","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HKEx raises the threshold for listing on the main board and strengthens executive misconduct sanctions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHKEx raises the threshold for listing on the main board and strengthens executive misconduct sanctions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">证券时报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-21 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has adopted a two-pronged approach and revised the listing rules again, aiming to further improve the quality of the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p>On May 20th, HKEx issued two consultation summaries. First, it improved the profit regulation of the main board, requiring the total profit of listed companies on the main board to reach HK$ 80 million in three fiscal years. This regulation will come into effect on January 1, 2022.</p><p>The second is the Summary of Disciplinary Action Consultation, which will strengthen the right of HKEx to investigate and impose improper sanctions on individual misconduct and violation of the Listing Rules.</p><p><b>HKEx raises Main Board profitability requirements</b></p><p><b>▲ ▲ ▲</b></p><p>On May 20th, HKEx issued the Consultation Document to amend the Main Board Profit Regulations, and decided to raise the Main Board Profit Regulations by 60%, equivalent to the total profit of HK$80 million, and change the profit distribution to 56%:44%, that is, the minimum total profit required for the first two financial years of the financial reporting period is HK$45 million, and the last financial year is HK$35 million, thus reducing the P/E by 14 times (consistent with the average P/E of Hang Seng Index from 1994 to 2020).</p><p>The above revised earnings increase will take effect on January 1, 2022.</p><p>The profitability requirement is one of the three financial eligibility tests and part of the HKEX assessment in determining the suitability of listing applicants for listing on the Main Board. The Stock Exchange last raised the market capitalization requirement in 2018, when it raised the market capitalization requirement on the main board from HK$200 million to HK$500 million, but it did not raise profits together, resulting in the extended historical P/E of companies that only met the two minimum requirements exploding from 10 times to 25 times, much higher than the market average.</p><p>These listing applicants generally reflect their growth potential with optimistic earnings forecasts submitted to the Stock Exchange, thus justifying their high valuations. However, many of these companies failed to meet the earnings forecast requirements after listing, and their share prices plummeted, resulting in a sharp drop in market value.</p><p>According to the data in the consultation document, the median change in the share price of eligible issuers (not low market cap issuers) from the IPO price in the year after listing (compared with the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index) is-10.1%, compared with-30.8% for ineligible issuers. From the Listing to March 31, 2021, the relevant median change in share price from the Offer Price for the eligible issuer was-34.1%, compared to-65.7% for the ineligible issuer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca061e0dadbed73b2d8949a441a1f95\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the overvaluation of these issuers also makes the market question whether the process of offering price is interfered by behaviors that violate the basic principles of the Listing Rules, such as providing rebates to investors or fabricating the quality of shareholders' assets, thus affecting the overall quality of listed companies on the main board.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541c43ba757afb6d94b955451af2dad0\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The above-mentioned regulations of HKEx have also encountered strong market opposition. Opponents believe that raising the profit regulations will shut out small and medium-sized enterprises and traditional companies, and the timing of implementation of the recommendations will be inappropriate in terms of the current economic situation, which will also reduce the competitiveness of HKEx.</p><p>In response, HKEx responded, \"We don't think that raising the profit requirements will deprive small and medium-sized enterprises of the opportunity to list in Hong Kong. If any small and medium-sized enterprises fail to meet the requirements of the main board, they can seek GEM listing. The regulatory framework of the exchange is generated by its development history, and it is designed to meet the needs of its own capital market. It will not adversely affect Hong Kong's competitiveness just because of the proposal to raise the profit requirements. Instead, it will consolidate the market positioning of the main board as a host for larger companies, plus sufficient shareholder protection and diversified issuer base, thus consolidating Hong Kong's position as an international financial center.\"</p><p>In a joint statement, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission said that certain IPOs may satisfy the initial listing requirements only in an untrue manner, such as allocating shares to controlled placees at inflated offering prices, thereby meeting the HK$500 million minimum market capitalization requirement in the Main Board Listing Rules. However, the real purpose behind it is to manipulate shares in the future, such as manipulating the stock price by \"singing high bulk cargo\".</p><p>\"As part of the regulatory response to misconduct, we are now stepping up the review of problematic applications that show warning signs, and when necessary, the two regulators will use their regulatory powers to oppose or reject an application,\" said Altley, chief executive of the SFC. The SFC works closely with the HKEx to strictly review the valuation of each listing applicant to assess compliance with minimum market capitalization and other initial listing requirements. \"</p><p><b>Strengthening sanctions for executive misconduct</b></p><p><b>▲ ▲ ▲</b></p><p>In addition to improving the profitability of the Main Board, HKEx also published the \"Disciplinary Action Consultation Summary\". The revised provisions of the Listing Rules, which enhance the right of HKEX to pursue and impose improper sanctions on misconduct and breach of the Listing Rules by individuals, became effective on 3 July 2021.</p><p>The implementation of the recommendations will broaden the scope of reputational sanctions available and ensure that more individuals can be disciplined, including senior management who caused or knowingly participated in breaches of the Listing Rules.</p><p>Specifically, the scope of accountability of listed companies for behaviors that harm investors' rights and interests covers the directors and senior management of relevant listed issuers and any of their subsidiaries. This is to solve the problem that listed issuer executives may avoid accountability by transferring to other positions in the issuer group or subsidiaries.</p><p>If the case involves more serious behavior, HKEx will not only issue a statement to individual persons that harms investors' rights and interests, but also take certain measures to hold them accountable, including prohibiting the listed issuer from entering the market during a specified period in addition to suspension or cancellation of listing status.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">HKEX</a>Jon Witts, Head of Rules Enforcement of the Listing Division, said: \"Following this amendment to the Listing Rules, individuals who breach the Listing Rules or engage in misconduct will be held liable, which helps to ensure that the disciplinary framework of the Stock Exchange remains sound and effective to enhance the quality of the market and protect the interests of investors.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210521/c629573746.shtml\">证券时报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1244793084c6388467f46fc7c39784b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210521/c629573746.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2137979737","content_text":"港交所双管齐下，再次修改上市规则，旨在进一步提高香港股市的质量。5月20日，港交所发布两份咨询总结，一是提高主板盈利规定，要求主板上市公司三个会计年度盈利总和达到8000万港元，此项规定将于2022年1月1日生效。二是《纪律处分咨询总结》，此项规定将加强港交所对个别人士的失当及违反《上市规则》的行为作出追究并施加失当制裁的权利。港交所提高主板盈利规定▲▲▲港交所于5月20日刊发修改主板盈利规定的《咨询文件》，决定将主板盈利规定调高60%，等同盈利总和8000万港元，并将盈利分布改为56%：44%，即财报期首两个财政年度所需的最低盈利总和为4500万港元，最后一个财政年度为3500万港元，从而降低市盈率达到14倍（与1994年至2020年恒生指数的平均市盈率一致）。上述修订后的盈利调高幅度将于2022年1月1日生效。盈利规定是三大财务资格测试之一，也是港交所厘定上市申请人是否适合在主板上市时评估的其中一环。联交所最近一次调高市值规定是在2018年，将主板市值规定由2亿港元调高至5亿港元，但并未将盈利一并提高，从而导致仅仅符合两项最低要求的公司引申历史市盈率由10倍爆升至25倍，远高于市场平均数。这些上市申请人一般都以提交给联交所的乐观盈利预测来反映增长潜力，从而证明其偏高的估值合理，然而其中不少公司在上市后都达不到盈利预测要求，并且股价大跌以致市值大跌。根据咨询文件数据显示，合资格发行人（并非低市值发行人）上市后一年的股价相较于招股价的变动中位数（与恒生综合行业指数比较）为-10.1%，而不合资格发行人则为-30.8%。上市起至2021年3月31日，合资格发行人的股价相较于招股价的相关变动中位数为-34.1%，而不合资格发行人则为-65.7%。此外，这些发行人估值过高，也令市场质疑招股价的过程是否受到有违《上市规则》基本原则的行为干预，比如向投资者提供回佣或捏造股东资产质量，从而影响主板上市公司整体质量。港交所的上述规定也遭遇过市场强烈反对，反对人士观点认为，调高盈利规定会将中小企业及传统公司拒之门外，实施建议的时间就当前经济状况而言也不适当，也会降低港交所的竞争力。对此，港交所回应称，“我们并不认为调高盈利规定会剥夺中小企业于香港上市的机会，若有中小企业因为盈利未达到主板要求，可寻求GEM上市。交易所的监管框架均是由其发展历史产生，且是为迎合自身资本市场需要而设，也不会因为仅仅提高盈利规定的建议就会对香港的竞争力造成不利影响，反而会巩固主板作为容纳规模较大公司的市场定位，加上充足的股东保障及多元化发行人基础，从而巩固香港国际金融中心的地位。”香港证监会在联合声明中表示，某些首次公开招股项目可能只是以非真实方式满足首次上市规定，例如将股份以虚高的招股价分配给受控制承配人，从而满足《主板上市规则》中的5亿港元最低市值规定。但背后真实目的是为了在日后能操纵股份，比如透过“唱高散货”方式操纵股价。香港证监会行政总裁欧达礼表示，“作为针对不正当行为而采取的监管对策的一部分，我们现时正加强审查出现预警迹象的有问题申请，在有需要时，两家监管机构将使用其监管权力，反对或拒绝某项申请。港证监会与港交所紧密合作，严格检视每个上市申请人的估值，以评估有关最低市值和其他首次上市规定的合规情况。”加强对高管失当行为的制裁▲▲▲除提高主板盈利之外，港交所亦刊发《纪律处分咨询总结》。经修订的《上市规则》条文可加强港交所对个别人士的失当，及违反《上市规则》的行为作出追究并施加失当制裁的权利，并于2021年7月3日实施及生效。实施有关建议将扩大可作声誉制裁的范围，并确保可对更多个别人士作纪律处分，包括导致或明知而参与违反《上市规则》的高级管理人员。具体来讲，就是上市公司针对损害投资者权益的行为，追责的对象范围，涵盖相关上市发行人及其任何附属公司的董事和高级管理层。这是为了解决上市发行人高管可能通过调职至发行人集团或子公司其他职位，从而躲避追责。若个案涉及较严重行为，港交所除了在对个别人士发出损害投资者权益声明同时，同步还会采取若干措施追责，包括除停牌或取消上市地位外，禁止该上市发行人在指定期间入市。香港交易所上市科规则执行主管Jon Witts表示：\"在这次《上市规则》修订后，违反《上市规则》或参与不当行为的个别人士均要承担责任，这有助确保联交所的纪律处分框架维持健全及有效，以提升市场素质及保障投资者的权益。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197279035,"gmtCreate":1621471182827,"gmtModify":1704358067402,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197279035","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9036275094,"gmtCreate":1647134817837,"gmtModify":1676534196961,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036275094","repostId":"2218249601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2218249601","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1647046791,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2218249601?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-12 08:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218249601","media":"Wind万得","summary":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal attention! Will the risk sentiment be reversed when the Federal Reserve \"lands its boots\" next week?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-12 08:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Next week, investors will welcome the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and the market is expecting this meeting to kick off the curtain of rate hike. Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower, said: \"From an investment perspective, history is on our side. We will wait and see how long this volatility lasts, but eventually, the market will recover.\"</p><p>rate hike is about to \"land the boots\", shrinking balance sheet still has to wait and see</p><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said he would propose a 25 basis point rate hike at the March Fed meeting amid high inflation, strong economic demand and a tight labor market, providing an unusually clear estimate of expected policy action.</p><p>The consumer price index (CPI) hit a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and slightly ahead of this year's estimate of 7.8%, according to the Fed's preferred metric. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, ahead of expectations of 0.7%. Powell told lawmakers, \"This is strong high inflation, and it's very important that we get it under control, and that's exactly what we're going to do.\"</p><p>Powell said he also expects the Fed to make \"good progress\" in preparing plans to shrink its $9 trillion asset portfolio, but the Fed will not finalize those plans at its March 15-16 meeting.</p><p>The point is that interest rate expectations have fluctuated significantly and are likely to continue as the data comes out, which could exacerbate the volatility of interest rate markets and yield curves, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. Since the start of the year, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term rates rising sharply in anticipation of a tightening by the Federal Reserve, while longer-term yields have risen less sharply.</p><p>The yield curve itself is seen as an important indicator. Curve inversion, particularly when 2-year or shorter U.S. Treasury yields are higher than 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, has been a reliable indicator of recession.</p><p>That hasn't happened yet, some analysts say, but a rapid flattening of the curve could reflect concerns that aggressive Fed tightening could send the economy into recession. Others offered a more modest explanation, with the flattening of interest rates reflecting market expectations that a swift Fed reaction would help tame inflation without raising rates to incredible levels.</p><p>Will risk sentiment be reversed?</p><p>Will the rate hike of the Federal Reserve \"boots land\" soon, which will boost the recent volatile global market?</p><p>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research said the stock market could fall further in the near term. Unlike in 2019, when governments imposed tax cuts and increased spending, this time they are sanctioning Russia, which will also hurt its domestic economy. He also fears another wave of Covid could be triggered by Europe's biggest refugee crisis in decades.</p><p>On a three-month benchmark, inflation from skyrocketing energy and food prices will dampen economic growth, Josh said. Bond yields are likely to move slightly higher as the Federal Reserve and other central banks respond, so he said global stock markets haven't bottomed out and the dollar will rise.</p><p>But on a 12-month basis, he expects global stocks, particularly the U.S., to rise. The U.S. stock market has a long duration of 30 years, he said, meaning the market should be valued at U.S. profits multiplied by the price of a 30-year bond. He said: \"The rising short-term inflation combined with sanctions will cause great damage to demand. By then, the decline in bond yields will bring a boost effect to U.S. stocks.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218249601","content_text":"下周，投资者将迎来美联储利率决议，市场预期此次会议将拉开加息的帷幕。海托华首席投资策略师斯蒂芬妮•林克(Stephanie Link) 表示：“从投资的角度来看，历史是站在我们这一边的。我们将拭目以待这场波动持续多久，但最终，市场将会复苏。”加息即将“靴子落地”，缩表还需等待观察美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)此前表示，在通胀高企、经济需求强劲和劳动力市场紧张的情况下，他将在3月美联储会议上提议升息25个基点，这为预期的政策行动提供了异常明确的预估。根据美联储首选的指标，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)达到7.9%，创40年来新高，略高于今年7.8%的预期。CPI环比上涨0.8%，高于预期的0.7%。鲍威尔对议员们说，“这是强劲高位的通货膨胀，我们要控制住它，这非常重要，这正是我们要做的。”鲍威尔说，他预计美联储在准备缩减9万亿美元资产组合的计划方面也会取得“良好进展”，但美联储不会在3月15日至16日的会议上敲定这些计划。纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师古德温(Lauren Goodwin)说，关键是利率预期已经出现了大幅波动，而且随着数据的出炉，这种波动可能会持续下去，这可能会加剧利率市场和收益率曲线的波动性。自今年初以来，收益率曲线已明显趋平，短期利率因美联储收紧预期而大幅上升，而较长期收益率的升幅则不那么剧烈。收益率曲线本身就被视为一个重要的指标。曲线倒挂，特别是当2年期或较短期美债收益率高于10年期美债收益率时，一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。一些分析师说，这种情况尚未发生，但曲线迅速趋平可能反映出人们对美联储激进收紧政策可能导致经济陷入衰退的担忧。其他人则给出了一种较为温和的解释，利率的趋平反映出市场预期美联储迅速做出反应将有助于抑制通胀，而无需将利率升到令人难以置信的水平。风险情绪会逆转吗?美联储加息即将“靴子落地”，会给近期剧烈波动的全球市场带来提振效应吗?BCA Research的哈瓦尔•乔希(Dhaval Joshi)表示，股市短期内可能会进一步下跌。与2019年新冠疫情时各国政府实施减税和增加支出不同，这次他们是在制裁俄罗斯，这也将损害其国内经济。他还担心欧洲几十年来最大的难民危机会引发另一波新冠疫情。乔希说，以三个月为基准，能源和食品价格飞涨带来的通货膨胀将抑制经济增长。随着美联储和其他央行做出回应，债券收益率可能会小幅走高，因此他说，全球股市尚未触底，美元将会上涨。但从12个月来看，他预计全球股市，尤其是美国股市将会上涨。他说，美国股市的存续期很长，为30年，这意味着市场的估值应该是美国的利润乘以30年期债券的价格。他表示:“短期通胀升温加上制裁措施，将对需求造成极大破坏，届时，债券收益率下降将为美股带来提振效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,".DJI":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194001240,"gmtCreate":1621322516080,"gmtModify":1704355758322,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194001240","repostId":"1185252306","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185252306","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621322486,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185252306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 15:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Starting from Soros's bargain-hunting and liquidation of stocks: How to play macro trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185252306","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"投资理念不需要门派之争。","content":"<p>Soros's fund bought stocks that Bill Hwang liquidated in the first quarter.</p><p>To tell the truth, I don't think this news is meaningful-because since Druckenmiller left Quantum Fund in 2000, Soros handed over the company to his son, CIOs all rely on outsourcing mode, and he has no successor at all. Style has long since drifted to nowhere. I communicated with their then CIO in 2008, and I didn't feel their macro system at all, which was more like Buffett's value investment. Except for Soros's emergency short-selling of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the short-selling of the yen in 2013, there is almost nothing remarkable.</p><p>In addition, I personally actually (without any basis, purely conjecture) suspect that some of his macro transactions cannot be ruled out as cooperating with the US government to carry out financial crackdowns on other countries.</p><p>Short the pound, hit the euro zone; Short Asia, hit Asia. From his several big short selling, we can see that the beneficiaries are the United States or its allies. Lenovo Soros has a close relationship with other countries, especially American politicians. From the perspective of game and risk management, we have to guess the worst.</p><p>Of course, even if our guess is correct, it does not hinder Soros's status as a generation of investment masters and macro hedging masters. Many of Buffett's deals obviously benefit from close ties with the government. The world is not as pure as ideal.</p><p>Closer to home, starting in March,<b>Hidden dangers of global inflation are on the rise, inflation trading is pervading the world, and technology stocks, especially inferior technology stocks, have plummeted.</b>As a result, last year's female stock gods Wood and Elon Musk, the junk stocks that Chamath tempted retail investors to pursue plummeted, and the risk extended to Archegos' controlling stocks.</p><p>However, although Bill Hwang insists that technology and grouping will not relax, we see that his master Julian Robertson and fellow disciples such as Tiger Global have reduced their holdings of technology stocks in the fourth quarter of last year (and Tiger Global, which held a heavy position in technology stocks last year, also made a profit in the first quarter.%, its macro timing and risk management skills can be seen), and Druckenmiller, Buffett also took the same action.</p><p><b>But Soros's current CIO is bucking the trend and increasing his position in technology, especially buying Bill Hwang's stock at the bottom... let's not talk about whether it is right or wrong, this method is not a trick for macro players at all...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b44ffefe70944b8a4cd1a00d8772631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lesson:</p><p>1. No matter how excellent a master or company is, it must form a replicable investment and research system; 2. Relying on talented traders, it is easy to drift in style; 3. Cronyism... Compared with Soros, Julian Robertson, another macro hedging representative, is full of peaches and plums all over the world. His strategy continues to evolve, and he has never suffered setbacks after 2000.<b>When profits in 2008 far exceeded Soros's losses in most systematic macro and quantitative strategies in 2020, Tiger cubs led the world in profitability.</b></p><p>And Bill Ackman, macro trading like a stroke of genius starting in 2020:</p><p>In February 2020, by trading CDS, I made a profit of 2.7 billion US dollars with 27 million US dollars, and then went long backhand at the end of March; At the end of 2020, derivatives were once again used to hedge the downside risks of the stock market this year. Through macro trading of derivatives alone, it contributed 1/3 of Pershing Square's profits. Jualian Robertson, who came from a value investing background, has become a macro master, and his peaches and plums are all over the world. With a background in value investing, Buffett's position adjustment at the beginning of this year was entirely macro:<b>Underweight technology stocks, bearish U.S. bonds, overweight value stocks</b>。</p><p>PE-born Bill Ackman shines on macro trades (even had momentum to overshadow Druckenmiller and Tudor last year). Facts have proved that investment ideas do not require sect disputes. Of course, whether you choose to concentrate on one sect or cross several sects is related to everyone's talent, so you don't have to learn to walk in Handan.</p><p>In recent years, Druckenmiller has heavily invested in the technology leader led by FANG, opening up the macro and micro channels of appointment and governor, and the macro view is still extremely sharp.</p><p>However, Soros, a generation of macro masters, himself, has fallen. Unfortunately, unfortunately.</p><p>Facts have proved that investment ideas do not require sect disputes. The real macro may not only be the vision, but also the mind.</p><p>The sea of learning is boundless. Encourage each other.</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starting from Soros's bargain-hunting and liquidation of stocks: How to play macro trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarting from Soros's bargain-hunting and liquidation of stocks: How to play macro trading\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">泷韬全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-18 15:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Soros's fund bought stocks that Bill Hwang liquidated in the first quarter.</p><p>To tell the truth, I don't think this news is meaningful-because since Druckenmiller left Quantum Fund in 2000, Soros handed over the company to his son, CIOs all rely on outsourcing mode, and he has no successor at all. Style has long since drifted to nowhere. I communicated with their then CIO in 2008, and I didn't feel their macro system at all, which was more like Buffett's value investment. Except for Soros's emergency short-selling of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the short-selling of the yen in 2013, there is almost nothing remarkable.</p><p>In addition, I personally actually (without any basis, purely conjecture) suspect that some of his macro transactions cannot be ruled out as cooperating with the US government to carry out financial crackdowns on other countries.</p><p>Short the pound, hit the euro zone; Short Asia, hit Asia. From his several big short selling, we can see that the beneficiaries are the United States or its allies. Lenovo Soros has a close relationship with other countries, especially American politicians. From the perspective of game and risk management, we have to guess the worst.</p><p>Of course, even if our guess is correct, it does not hinder Soros's status as a generation of investment masters and macro hedging masters. Many of Buffett's deals obviously benefit from close ties with the government. The world is not as pure as ideal.</p><p>Closer to home, starting in March,<b>Hidden dangers of global inflation are on the rise, inflation trading is pervading the world, and technology stocks, especially inferior technology stocks, have plummeted.</b>As a result, last year's female stock gods Wood and Elon Musk, the junk stocks that Chamath tempted retail investors to pursue plummeted, and the risk extended to Archegos' controlling stocks.</p><p>However, although Bill Hwang insists that technology and grouping will not relax, we see that his master Julian Robertson and fellow disciples such as Tiger Global have reduced their holdings of technology stocks in the fourth quarter of last year (and Tiger Global, which held a heavy position in technology stocks last year, also made a profit in the first quarter.%, its macro timing and risk management skills can be seen), and Druckenmiller, Buffett also took the same action.</p><p><b>But Soros's current CIO is bucking the trend and increasing his position in technology, especially buying Bill Hwang's stock at the bottom... let's not talk about whether it is right or wrong, this method is not a trick for macro players at all...</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b44ffefe70944b8a4cd1a00d8772631\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Lesson:</p><p>1. No matter how excellent a master or company is, it must form a replicable investment and research system; 2. Relying on talented traders, it is easy to drift in style; 3. Cronyism... Compared with Soros, Julian Robertson, another macro hedging representative, is full of peaches and plums all over the world. His strategy continues to evolve, and he has never suffered setbacks after 2000.<b>When profits in 2008 far exceeded Soros's losses in most systematic macro and quantitative strategies in 2020, Tiger cubs led the world in profitability.</b></p><p>And Bill Ackman, macro trading like a stroke of genius starting in 2020:</p><p>In February 2020, by trading CDS, I made a profit of 2.7 billion US dollars with 27 million US dollars, and then went long backhand at the end of March; At the end of 2020, derivatives were once again used to hedge the downside risks of the stock market this year. Through macro trading of derivatives alone, it contributed 1/3 of Pershing Square's profits. Jualian Robertson, who came from a value investing background, has become a macro master, and his peaches and plums are all over the world. With a background in value investing, Buffett's position adjustment at the beginning of this year was entirely macro:<b>Underweight technology stocks, bearish U.S. bonds, overweight value stocks</b>。</p><p>PE-born Bill Ackman shines on macro trades (even had momentum to overshadow Druckenmiller and Tudor last year). Facts have proved that investment ideas do not require sect disputes. Of course, whether you choose to concentrate on one sect or cross several sects is related to everyone's talent, so you don't have to learn to walk in Handan.</p><p>In recent years, Druckenmiller has heavily invested in the technology leader led by FANG, opening up the macro and micro channels of appointment and governor, and the macro view is still extremely sharp.</p><p>However, Soros, a generation of macro masters, himself, has fallen. Unfortunately, unfortunately.</p><p>Facts have proved that investment ideas do not require sect disputes. The real macro may not only be the vision, but also the mind.</p><p>The sea of learning is boundless. Encourage each other.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ\">泷韬全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cd73d67e9dbedd2f8615091c473358","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0bwvzsnVLE_vuE1SbUS7vQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185252306","content_text":"索罗斯的基金在一季度抄底Bill Hwang爆仓的股票。\n说实话，我觉得这个消息没什么意义——因为自从2000年 Druckenmiller离开量子基金后，索罗斯就把公司交给儿子打理，CIO都靠外包模式，自己根本没有接班人。风格早就不知道飘到哪里了。08年曾经和他们当时的CIO交流过，我完全感觉不到他们的宏观体系，更像巴菲特的价值投资。除了索罗斯在08年紧急出马做空次债危机，以及在2013年做空日元，几乎没有可圈可点之处。\n另外，我个人其实 (没有任何根据，纯属猜想) 怀疑他的某些宏观交易不排除是配合美国政府对其他国家进行金融打击。\n\n 做空英镑，打击欧元区；做空亚洲，打击亚洲。\n\n由他几次大的做空，我们看到，获益方都是美国，或其盟友。联想索罗斯和各国，尤其美国政要关系密切，从博弈和风险管理的角度，我们不得不以最坏的打算猜测。\n当然，即使我们猜测是对的，也不妨碍索罗斯作为一代投资大师，和宏观对冲宗师的地位。Buffett很多交易明显也得益于与政府关系密切。这个世界没有理想中那么纯净。\n言归正传，3月起，全球通胀隐患抬头，通胀交易在全球弥漫，科技股，尤其劣质科技股暴跌，导致去年的女股神Wood和Elon Musk，Chamath蛊惑散户追逐的垃圾股暴跌，进而风险延续到Archegos的控盘庄股。\n但是，虽然Bill Hwang咬定科技和抱团不放松，我们看到他师傅Julian Robertson和同门师兄弟比如Tiger Global在去年4季度已减持了科技股（而且去年重仓科技股的Tiger Global在一季度还盈利0.8%，其宏观择时和风险管理功力可见一斑），还有Druckenmiller, 巴菲特也采取了同样的动作。\n但是索罗斯的现任CIO却逆势加仓科技，尤其抄底Bill Hwang的股票......我们单不说对错与否，这路数根本不是宏观选手的招数......\n\n教训：\n\n 1，再优秀的大师，或公司，也要形成可复制的投研系统；\n\n\n 2，依赖天才交易员，很容易风格漂移；\n\n\n 3，任人唯亲......\n\n和索罗斯相比，另一位宏观对冲代表Julian Robertson 桃李满天下，策略不断进化，在2000年之后再也没有受挫，在2008年盈利远超索罗斯 2020年在大部分系统化宏观和量化策略亏损的时候，Tiger cubs盈利在全球领先。\n还有Bill Ackman，从2020年开始，宏观交易如神来之笔：\n\n 在2020年2月，通过交易CDS, 用2700万美金盈利27亿美金，然后3月底反手做多；2020年底，再次用衍生品对冲了今年股市下行风险。单是通过衍生品的宏观交易，就给Pershing Square贡献了1/3的盈利。以价值投资出身的Jualian Robertson成为宏观大家，而且桃李遍天下。\n\n以价值投资出身巴菲特今年年初的调仓完全是宏观手笔：减持科技股，看空美债，超配价值股。\nPE出身的Bill Ackman，宏观交易大放异彩（甚至在去年有盖过Druckenmiller和Tudor的势头）。事实证明，投资理念不需要门派之争。当然，是选择专心于一个门派，还是横跨数个门派，和每个人天赋有关，大家不必邯郸学步。\nDruckenmiller近年来重仓FANG为首的科技龙头，打通宏观和微观任督二脉且宏观观点依旧犀利无比。\n而一代宏观宗师索罗斯自己却门庭凋落了。可惜，可惜。\n事实证明，投资理念不需要门派之争。真正的宏观也许不止视野，还有胸怀。\n学海无涯。共勉。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035167256,"gmtCreate":1647553642560,"gmtModify":1676534242366,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035167256","repostId":"1181924326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181924326","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1647506263,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181924326?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 16:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181924326","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自201","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it will fail to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike 7 times this year, can the Fed do it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Some economists doubt the expectation of seven rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thinking that it is an open question whether they actually take action. The Fed's aggressive rate hike plan, which could plunge the economy into recession while fighting inflation.</p><p>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate hike since 2018. Meanwhile, its forecasts show that Fed officials expect another six rate hike this year and three rate hike next year.</p><p>This is a radical rate hike campaign, but it also begs the question:<b>Can the Fed succeed without seriously damaging the economy?</b></p><p><b>'The Fed is too aggressive'</b></p><p>Some economists believe the Fed may not act as expected because it could hurt the economy.</p><p>According to CNBC, James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said the bond market had priced in seven rate hike even before the meeting, but many economists had expected that the Fed would only rate hike five to six times:</p><p>This has largely been priced in, but the bigger question for the market is whether we will see a recession. While economists did not explicitly predict a recession, they did see a slowdown in economic growth, and the outlook has become more uncertain since Russia's military campaign. The Ukraine crisis has also fueled inflation, as Russia is a major commodity producer, while the conflict and sanctions have raised suspicions about the supply of oil, wheat and other major exports.</p><p>Simona Mocuta, chief analyst at State Street Global Advisors, made it clear:<b>\"I think the Fed has been too aggressive in this regard.</b>How the economy will develop is highly uncertain. They may not materialize. But to be sure, the Fed is sending a very strong message.... I still doubt that there will be so many rate hike. \"</p><p>Economists had expected the Fed to be hawkish or aggressive in its first rate hike. Many had argued that the Fed's decision-making was lagging because the Fed initially believed inflation was temporary, a view that has persisted for far too long.</p><p>Mocuta said,<b>The Fed may first rate hike a few times, but should reconsider the path of rate hike and economic conditions in the third quarter.</b></p><p>If the Russia-Ukraine conflict improves, some pressures on inflation and supply chains will ease. Some of the supply chain pressures brought on by the pandemic may also subside over time.</p><p>Drew Matus, chief market strategist at Metropolitan Investment Management, said:</p><p>What I'm trying to say is, they're sending out the signals they need to send,<b>But whether they actually take action is an open question.</b>The data shows that the U.S. CPI jumped to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and is expected to rise further in March.</p><p>The Fed expects core inflation to be 4.1% this year and to fall to 2.6% next year after a rate hike. They also forecast that GDP will grow by 4% this year and fall to 2.2% by 2023. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% and will remain at that level.</p><p>\"A lot of their predictions are meaningless... there are some holes in the logic,\" Matus argues.</p><p>He noted that,<b>One of the loopholes is that if the Fed does raise interest rates at the rate it expects, it will fail to achieve this economic forecast.</b></p><p>'They're serious'</p><p>But others do expect the Fed to continue its rate hike, with some Wall Streeters predicting seven rate hike this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-term interest rate strategy, said:</p><p>They mean it. They're really way behind the curve when it comes to inflation. Those who think they can't do 7 rate hike, will face a serious blow. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, believes markets should take the Fed's word for it:</p><p>We cannot risk stagflation. They acknowledge that they now expect inflation to last longer, and that it's not just a Ukraine problem. Seeing the market's reaction, they clearly didn't believe it. This is a major shift in the outlook for the Fed's rate hike. They're doing it for a reason, not just someone at the Fed.<b>This is a systemic move by the entire Fed, even by the most dovish of Fed officials.</b>The Fed's unemployment forecast may not be reasonable, but the Fed does want to cool down inflation, Swonk said.</p><p>If Fed officials act as expected, there is a risk. She said:<b>\"When I simulate the scenario of rate hike seven times, which is my forecast, I think the average growth of the economy in the second half of the year will stop at 1%. This is a semi-hard landing.\"</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181924326","content_text":"部分经济学家对美联储加息7次的预期表示怀疑，认为他们是否真的采取行动，是一个悬而未决的问题。美联储激进的加息计划，可能会在对抗通胀的同时使经济陷入衰退。周三，美联储将利率上调了25个基点，这是自2018年以来的首次加息。与此同时，其预测显示，美联储官员预计今年将再加息6次，明年将加息3次。这是一场激进的加息运动，但也引出了一个问题：美联储能否在不严重损害经济的情况下取得成功？“美联储过于激进了”一些经济学家认为，美联储可能不会按预期行事，因为这可能会损害经济。据CNBC报道，Leuthold Group的首席投资策略师James Paulsen表示，甚至在会议之前，债券市场就已经消化了7次加息，但许多经济学家曾预计，美联储只会加息5到6次：这在很大程度上已经被消化，但市场面临的更大问题是，我们是否会看到经济衰退。虽然经济学家没有明确预测经济会衰退，但他们确实看到经济增长放缓，而且自从俄罗斯的军事行动以来，前景变得更加不明朗。乌克兰危机也加剧了通胀，因为俄罗斯是主要的大宗商品生产国，而冲突和制裁引发了人们对石油、小麦和其他主要出口产品供应的怀疑。道富环球顾问首席分析师Simona Mocuta明确表示：“我认为美联储在这方面过于激进了。经济如何发展是高度不确定的。它们可能不会实现。但可以肯定的是，美联储传递了一个非常强烈的信息. ...我仍然怀疑是否会有这么多的加息次数。”经济学家们曾预计，美联储在首次加息时，会表现出鹰派或激进的态度。许多人曾认为美联储的决策滞后，因为美联储最初认为通胀是暂时的，而这种观点已经持续了太久。Mocuta表示，美联储可能会先加息几次，但在第三季度时应重新考虑加息的路径和经济状况。如果俄乌冲突有所改善，通胀和供应链方面的一些压力将会缓解。随着时间的推移，疫情带来的一些供应链压力也可能消退。大都会投资管理公司首席市场策略师Drew Matus表示：我想说的是，他们在发出他们需要发出的信号，但他们是否真的采取行动，这是一个悬而未决的问题。数据显示，美国2月份CPI跃升至7.9%的40年新高，预计3月份还会进一步上升。美联储预计，今年的核心通胀率将为4.1%，加息后明年将降至2.6%。他们还预测今年GDP将增长4%，到2023年将降至2.2%。预计失业率将降至3.5%，并将维持在这一水平。Matus认为：“他们的很多预测都是没有意义的...在逻辑上有一些漏洞。”他指出，其中一个漏洞是，如果美联储真的按照预期的速度升息，将无法实现这一经济预测。“他们是认真的”但其他人确实预计美联储会继续加息，一些华尔街人士预测今年将加息7次。美国银行美国短期利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：他们是认真的。他们在通胀方面真的远远落后于曲线。那些认为他们不能进行7次加息的人，将面临严重的打击。Grant Thornton的首席经济学家Diane Swonk认为，市场应该相信美联储的话：我们不能冒着滞胀的风险。他们承认，他们现在预计通胀会持续更长时间，而且这不仅仅是乌克兰的问题。看到市场的反应，他们显然不相信。这是美联储加息前景的重大转变。他们这么做是有原因的，不仅仅是美联储的某个人。这是整个美联储的系统性举措，即使是最鸽派的美联储官员也不例外。Swonk表示，美联储对失业率的预测可能不合理，但美联储确实希望给通胀降温。如果美联储官员按照预期的行动，就存在风险。她说：“当我模拟7次加息的情景时，也就是我的预测，我认为经济在下半年的平均增长将止步于1%。这是一次半硬着陆。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120808749,"gmtCreate":1624317763281,"gmtModify":1703833123791,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>Continue adding more","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>Continue adding more","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$Continue adding more","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f9b8cd712805f5fc6ca4194d753315","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120808749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949578443,"gmtCreate":1678791613182,"gmtModify":1678791616283,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARKG\">$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARKG\">$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF(ARKG)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/da4c330e644df65b2087502082f5b3ae","width":"1170","height":"8112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949578443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949822037,"gmtCreate":1678505452029,"gmtModify":1678505455768,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GRAB\">$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/275408d64a68cea1411a48aa4181f1f5","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949822037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197693069,"gmtCreate":1621459543851,"gmtModify":1704357825818,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;?","listText":"&nbsp;?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197693069","repostId":"1115477340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115477340","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621436803,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115477340?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-19 23:06","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"U.S. and Burundi oil both fell more than 4%, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115477340","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月19日，WTI原油期货跌幅扩大至4.82%，现报62.34美元/桶；布伦特原油期货跌幅扩大至4.44%，现报65.66美元/桶。此前美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的政府版原油库存周报显示，上周美国E","content":"<p>On May 19, the decline of WTI crude oil futures expanded to 4.82% and is now trading at US $62.34 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures expanded their losses to 4.44% and are now trading at $65.66 a barrel. Previously, the government version of the weekly crude oil inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels last week, and are expected to increase by 2 million barrels. According to industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), API crude oil inventories in the United States increased by more than 600,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by more than 2.8 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by about 2.6 million barrels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8abd3671d8892b9e2a3a64b9d5cce6f\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7365633c33182c135ce7736be68c83a7\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. and Burundi oil both fell more than 4%, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. and Burundi oil both fell more than 4%, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-19 23:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 19, the decline of WTI crude oil futures expanded to 4.82% and is now trading at US $62.34 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures expanded their losses to 4.44% and are now trading at $65.66 a barrel. Previously, the government version of the weekly crude oil inventory report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by more than 1.3 million barrels last week, and are expected to increase by 2 million barrels. According to industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), API crude oil inventories in the United States increased by more than 600,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by more than 2.8 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by about 2.6 million barrels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8abd3671d8892b9e2a3a64b9d5cce6f\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7365633c33182c135ce7736be68c83a7\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/212c960aaeece26511e050463eddc3b0","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115477340","content_text":"5月19日，WTI原油期货跌幅扩大至4.82%，现报62.34美元/桶；布伦特原油期货跌幅扩大至4.44%，现报65.66美元/桶。此前美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的政府版原油库存周报显示，上周美国EIA原油库存增加逾130万桶，预期会增加200万桶。美国石油协会（API）的行业版数据显示，美国上周API原油库存增加逾60万桶，汽油库存减少逾280万桶，精炼油库存减少约260万桶。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091052984,"gmtCreate":1643752599452,"gmtModify":1676533850624,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💰","listText":"💰","text":"💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091052984","repostId":"1109587984","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109587984","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"张忆东从事A股港股及大类资产配置研究逾15载，连续多年获策略研究第一名，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖、第一财经、IAMAC奖的“全满贯”第一，三次获“新财富”策略第一。该公众号是其团队研究大类资产配置、A股港股美股及其他市场的成果","home_visible":1,"media_name":"张忆东策略世界","id":"1065818805","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb"},"pubTimestamp":1643727865,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109587984?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 23:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"February Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109587984","media":"张忆东策略世界","summary":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>On January 1st, the report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21st, the report \"US stocks fluctuate, why did Hong Kong stocks rise?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25th, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks were expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; Energy, telecommunications and general sectors led the gains, while healthcare, discretionary consumer and industrial sectors led the decline.</p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end. U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. The geopolitical risks around Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then the worries about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end TAPER in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weight sector are expected to improve, and the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks is supported.</b></p><p>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>China's real estate policy has improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises reached the best level in history, and the net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of steady growth. 3) In 2022, the closing year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>3. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk: The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 outbreak mutates beyond expectations</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>October 14, 2021 In-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts From\" Quasi-Stagflation \"to\" Recession \"\" proposes,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next scenario with greater probability of China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflation pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound of US bond yield and US dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: The bottom area has repeatedly \"ground the bottom\" and tempered people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>On November 1, 2021, the report \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds the heart more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. November market outlook- -<b>After the rebound in October, the kinetic energy of Hong Kong stocks' continuous rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The December 1, 2021 report \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently deploy long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21, 2022, the report \"Why did Hong Kong stocks rise as US stocks fluctuate?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25, 2022, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month</b></p><p>As of January 31st, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks in January, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.7%, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap shares rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap shares fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap shares fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and General (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Discretionary Consumer (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end.</b>U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, which led to the rebound of U.S. stocks. Look at the results of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US) and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings-according to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix shares after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end Taper in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, in January, the FOMC resolved to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell answered a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, saying that \"he will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters\".</p><p><b>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that 0203 Bank of England, 0223 Bank of New Zealand and 0302 Bank of Canada will also have a high probability of rate hike, and 0203 European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure. In the first quarter, the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased. The credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the further monetary and fiscal easing in the follow-up is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that the economic growth rate is still facing significant downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated epidemic, the consumption growth rate was under pressure again after a brief recovery.</p><p>At present, on the premise that housing is not speculated and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially the broad \"new infrastructure\" that is conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and steady growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for advance batches in 2022 was issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"moderately carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule\". With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The expected improvement of the policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector is supported by the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>China's real estate policy has improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic operation of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the SASAC revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, with operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profit increased by 30.3% and net profit increased by 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the SASAC stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the task of completing stable growth with promoting high-quality development, promote stability with stability, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the last year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>The investment direction of the rebound market in March and February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of the Internet leader: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States declined; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>February Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFebruary Strategy of Hong Kong Stocks: Will usher in the improvement of risk appetite and focus on the \"mean return\" market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1065818805\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f636ec1274a70b86d1fdc1329e0eb);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">张忆东策略世界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-01 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\".</b></p><p><b>On January 1st, the report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21st, the report \"US stocks fluctuate, why did Hong Kong stocks rise?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25th, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Fluctuations on China's Stock Market\" predicted that U.S. stocks were expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month.</b>In addition, in January, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4% and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; Energy, telecommunications and general sectors led the gains, while healthcare, discretionary consumer and industrial sectors led the decline.</p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end. U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases. Apple's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by 0201Alphabet, 0202 Meta Platform, 0203<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Performance, and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings.</p><p>February is the stage of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and overseas geopolitical risks are expected to ease. The geopolitical risks around Ukraine are expected to gradually cool down through negotiations in February, and then the worries about the European energy crisis and global oil price risks will cool down in stages.</p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February. As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end TAPER in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter.</p><p>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year. As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</p><p>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</p><p><b>2.3. The policy and fundamentals of the weight sector are expected to improve, and the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks is supported.</b></p><p>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum. 1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p>China's real estate policy has improved marginally. Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy. In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</p><p>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant. 1) In 2021, the efficiency growth of central enterprises reached the best level in history, and the net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2) In 2022, domestic economic stabilization policies will be implemented, and state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will undertake the main task of steady growth. 3) In 2022, the closing year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small victories into big victories\".</b>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>3. The investment direction of the rebound market in February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market:</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of Internet leaders: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader.</p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\"). Risk: The economic growth rate of China and the United States is declining; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 outbreak mutates beyond expectations</p><p><b>Report Text</b></p><p><b>January Views and Market Review</b></p><p><b>1.1. Viewpoint review: January strategy \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\"</b></p><p><b>October 14, 2021 In-depth report \"Defensive Counterattack, Investment Clock Shifts From\" Quasi-Stagflation \"to\" Recession \"\" proposes,</b>In the fourth quarter of this year, the next scenario with greater probability of China's investment clock is recession, which is shifting from \"stagflation-like\" to recession in October; In the fourth quarter, there was still stagflation pressure in Europe and the United States, and the rebound of US bond yield and US dollar brought short-term disturbance. Hong Kong stocks: The bottom area has repeatedly \"ground the bottom\" and tempered people's hearts. Among them, October to mid-November is a good rebound window, but after the rebound, it is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks will face turmoil by the end of the year.</p><p><b>On November 1, 2021, the report \"The market grinds the\" bottom \"and grinds the heart more\" pointed out:</b>Hong Kong stocks will repeatedly \"grind the bottom\" in the bottom area, and the structural market will still follow A shares. November market outlook- -<b>After the rebound in October, the kinetic energy of Hong Kong stocks' continuous rebound in the fourth quarter was weak.</b></p><p><b>The December 1, 2021 report \"Searching for the Dawn in the Valley of Disappointment\" states:</b>After the Hang Seng Index repeatedly confirmed the bottom and the pessimism of Hong Kong stocks was concentrated, Hong Kong stocks are expected to rebound. To find the dawn in the valley of disappointment, select and patiently deploy long-term high-quality stocks.</p><p><b>The report \"The Dawn of Hong Kong Stocks Reappears\" on January 1, 2022 emphasized that the dawn of Hong Kong stocks reappears in January 2022, and the internal and external environment is conducive to the time window of rebound:</b>The domestic policy to stabilize the economy is vigorous, and monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in the first quarter of 2022; The impact of changes in the Mainland policy environment on Hong Kong stocks has improved marginally.</p><p><b>On January 21, 2022, the report \"Why did Hong Kong stocks rise as US stocks fluctuate?\" pointed out:</b>At present, the \"water collection\" in the United States has a limited impact on the \"global valuation depression\" Hong Kong stock market, and it is gradually desensitized; Hong Kong stocks ushered in the dawn in the spring breeze of China's policy of \"steady growth and wide currency\".</p><p><b>On January 25, 2022, the report \"Short-term and Medium-term End Forecast of U.S. Stocks and the Impact of U.S. Stock Volatility on China's Stock Market\" predicts that U.S. stocks are expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term.</b>The sharp rise in long-term bond interest rates, the reflexive impact of the market, and the impact of FOMC in January on US stocks have come to an end. The performance of US heavyweights and the possible subsequent repurchase will determine whether there can be a decent rebound in US stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? In addition, in the medium-term outlook, the mid-term end of U.S. stocks has not arrived yet.</p><p><b>1.2. Market review in January: In the first half of the year, the weight sector of Hong Kong stocks performed strongly; In the second half of the year, the market adjusted, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.7% for the whole month</b></p><p>As of January 31st, the main indexes of Hong Kong stocks in January, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.7%, the Hang Seng H-Index rose by 1.4%, and the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.2%; In addition, Hang Seng large-cap shares rose 1.0%, Hang Seng mid-cap shares fell 4.3%, Hang Seng Technology fell 4.5%, and Hang Seng small-cap shares fell 6.3%. In terms of sectors, Hang Seng Energy (up 10.5%), Telecommunications (up 10.1%) and General (up 9.0%) led the gains, while Healthcare (down 15.1%), Discretionary Consumer (down 11.1%) and Industrial (down 7.3%) led the decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55b98cc49a9878ee54e42f3c37969cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Outlook of Hong Kong stocks: February will usher in an improvement in risk appetite, but overseas risks will still interfere with the market in the medium term</b></p><p><b>2.1. Overseas prediction: February will be the rebound window after the short-term US stock bottoms out; However, US monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and the mid-term end of US stocks has not yet reached</b></p><p><b>2.1.1. In the short term, U.S. stocks have bottomed out and are expected to rebound, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A shares and Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>U.S. stocks meet the prediction and confirm the short-term end.</b>U.S. Long Bond Rates Fall Back; VIX closed at 27.66 at 0128, which was significantly lower than the intraday high of 38.94 in 0124; The FOMC is not more hawkish than expected.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d25c69953ae6c3b55ddbf85cc9b4bf0\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0300233c53f6bc0381b1f4328258782\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f67e6def62c32d1f9673cc655dddb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The nature of the subsequent US stock rebound depends on fundamental expectations. Can there be a decent rebound in U.S. stocks in the follow-up? Or just a fall relay-style gasp? \"Short-term and medium-term end forecast of U.S. stocks and the impact of U.S. stock volatility on China's stock market\" judges that this will depend on the performance of U.S. stock heavyweights and subsequent repurchases.</b></p><p>Apple's (AAPL.US) latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, which led to the rebound of U.S. stocks. Look at the results of 0201Alphabet (GOOGL.US), 0202 MetaPlatform (FB.US) and 0203 Amazon (AMZN.US), and focus on the subsequent U.S. stock repurchase and executive holdings-according to media reports, Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO Reed Hastings bought $20 million worth of Netflix shares after its performance fell below expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530147cbb84acbc2092920a61ceaaa66\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1.2. In the medium term, the U.S. monetary policy continued to contract in the first half of the year, and there was still a large risk of volatility in U.S. stocks in the second quarter. Volatility in overseas stock markets will be the norm, which led to the deepening and rebound of Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><b>First of all, in the first half of the year, the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt was easy to rise but difficult to fall, and it will continue to rise after falling back and breathing in February.</b>As an important buying force in the U.S. bond market, the U.S. Federal Reserve will end Taper in March as the Fed's bond purchase rapidly ebbs. Based on the high inflation in the first half of the year, after the first rate hike in March, the discussion of the Fed's shrinking balance sheet will also be put on the agenda. We judge that the 10-year Treasury Bond yield of U.S. bonds is expected to exceed 2% in the second quarter<b>。</b>Regarding the tapering of bond purchases, in January, the FOMC resolved to maintain the current pace of tapering bond purchases, so the Fed will end bond purchases in March 2022; Regarding shrinking balance sheet, Powell answered a reporter's question after the FOMC meeting in January, saying that \"he will meet at least once in rate hike to discuss specific shrinking balance sheet matters\".</p><p><b>Secondly, the strong rate hike is expected to remain high, which will continue to suppress the US stock market in the first half of the year.</b>As of 20220128, the Federal Funds rate futures market has expected the Fed to raise interest rates more than once in March (25bp once). Based on the high pressure of the global supply chain, the high inflation in the United States in the first half of the year is probably sticky, and it is difficult to fall back significantly. It is not excluded that the market will continue to be cautious about the FOMC interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve in March, May and June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b7f83f2853710017ea985c0c519b8e\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac24bf95deb023f10668e219e2ea6388\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Third, based on the impact of the global epidemic on the global supply chain and the sequelae of the policy \"big release\" in the previous two years, the risk of high overseas inflation and the risk of rate hike resonance in overseas countries cannot be ignored.</b>At present, the emerging market rate hike is responding to the tightening of the Federal Reserve. In developed markets, according to media reports, the market expects that 0203 Bank of England, 0223 Bank of New Zealand and 0302 Bank of Canada will also have a high probability of rate hike, and 0203 European Central Bank's first interest rate decision this year is also crucial.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac9bd772f72fc0d5da602aa0137d06e\" tg-width=\"1075\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2. China's macro outlook: the policy \"focuses on me and stability\", and further easing of the policy can be expected</b></p><p><b>Under the tone of steady growth, further easing of monetary policy can still be expected, thus, on the one hand, avoiding systemic credit risks in real estate and other fields, and on the other hand, it is conducive to stabilizing expectations and demand.</b>At present, the economic growth rate is still facing downward pressure. In the first quarter, the pressure of real estate debt maturity increased. The credit risks in real estate and other fields and their drag on the economy should not be underestimated. Therefore, the recent reduction of MLF and LPR of various maturities is a positive response signal, and the further monetary and fiscal easing in the follow-up is worth looking forward to.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/891645f1512f61b3bb2c56eb1dc33216\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In addition to further relaxing the currency, after the Spring Festival, infrastructure investment, especially new infrastructure, is expected to exert its strength.</b></p><p>Against the background that the economic growth rate is still facing significant downward pressure, in the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased by 4.0% year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage points from the third quarter. Dragged down by the repeated epidemic, the consumption growth rate was under pressure again after a brief recovery.</p><p>At present, on the premise that housing is not speculated and real estate is not used as the main means to stimulate the economy, the main means to quickly stabilize the economy still depends on \"stabilizing infrastructure\", especially the broad \"new infrastructure\" that is conducive to structural adjustment in the long term and steady growth in the short term.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>According to the macro team's research, the new special bond quota for advance batches in 2022 was issued in December 2021, slightly earlier than the same period in 2021, reflecting the government's determination to \"moderately carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule\". With the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in November and December, the growth rate of infrastructure has picked up in December. Looking forward, infrastructure investment may usher in strength in the first half of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d10a7cabdb9f6e01617b50862157f6a\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef300fee45aa401bf89db365c383005\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3. The expected improvement of the policy and fundamentals of the weighted sector is supported by the bottom area of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>The policy of steady growth is expected to be further strengthened, and the related industries of Hong Kong stocks still have upward momentum.</b>1) The prosperity of traditional industries represented by construction and building materials has improved, and the value of low-valued central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks has been revalued; 2) The high prosperity of new energy sources such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, and \"new infrastructure\" stocks such as power grid continues, and the market is differentiated; 3) Mainland securities firms benefit from the active capital market under \"recession easing\", and the value of related Hong Kong stocks is expected to be revalued.</p><p><b>China's real estate policy has improved marginally.</b>Since the beginning of January 2022, the policy environment for real estate has been continuously improving and moving towards a virtuous circle: LPR interest rate has been lowered; The regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities have been relaxed; On January 20th, the National Work Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held. The meeting emphasized that risk prevention should be placed in a more prominent position, risks in housing and urban-rural construction should be prevented and resolved, the vitality of enterprises should be better stimulated, the growth should be steady, and the housing demand of residents should be fully released.</p><p><b>Marginal improvement of Internet industry policy.</b>In 2022, the Internet policy orientation will shift from \"preventing the disorderly expansion of capital\" to \"developing in norms\".<b>On January 28th, the Central Network Information Office, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, held a symposium on promoting the healthy and sustainable development of Internet enterprises. At the meeting, the relevant person in charge emphasized that,</b>\"At present, the overall situation and development trend of China's long-term favorable economic development environment have not changed. Internet enterprises have broad development prospects and great achievements, so they must grasp the general trend and strengthen their confidence; The continuous improvement of the rule of law and the continuous improvement of supervision in China's Internet field are objective requirements and the general trend, which provides a strong guarantee for Internet enterprises to strengthen management and standardize operation, and must be treated correctly and actively adapted\".</p><p><b>Hong Kong financial stocks benefit from Anglo-American rate hike expectations and revaluation will continue.</b></p><p><b>The reform of state-owned enterprises is worth looking forward to, and the tide of revaluation of central enterprises is in the ascendant.</b>1) On January 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic operation of central enterprises in 2021. The relevant person in charge of the SASAC revealed at the meeting that the efficiency growth of central enterprises in 2021 reached the best level in history, with operating income of 36.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, profit increased by 30.3% and net profit increased by 29.8%. 2) Under the requirement that \"economic work should be stable and strive for progress while maintaining stability\", the SASAC stated that in 2022, central enterprises will focus on the goal of \"two increases, one control and three improvements\", combine the task of completing stable growth with promoting high-quality development, promote stability with stability, and make greater contributions to economic and social development. 3) At the same time, 2022 is the last year of the three-year reform of state-owned enterprises. In the new era of implementing the \"dual carbon\" strategy, high-quality development and common prosperity, the fundamentals of some central enterprises in Hong Kong stocks are ushering in turnaround or transformation opportunities.</p><p><b>3. Investment advice: stay half awake and half drunk in the short term, and fight back defensively; Accumulating small wins into big wins in the medium term, selecting individual stocks</b></p><p><b>3.1. The investment strategy of Hong Kong stocks in 2022 needs to \"base on value, select individual stocks, do a good job in defensive counterattack, and accumulate small wins into big wins\"</b></p><p>In the medium and long term, it is difficult to change the broad framework that Hong Kong stocks are affected by overseas funds, emotions and Chinese fundamentals at the same time. Under the basic judgment that China's economy is under pressure in the first half of the year, while the United States has continuous rate hike, the medium-term adjustment of U.S. stocks is not completed, and the whole year is fluctuating, in 2022, Hong Kong stock investment needs to be defensive and counterattack, based on value and selecting individual stocks, so as to survive in the cracks, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and accumulate small victories into big victories.</p><p><b>The investment direction of the rebound market in March and February: based on the expected improvement of fundamentals, focusing on the \"mean return\" market</b></p><p>The rebound and differentiation of the Internet leader: The main driving force is short squeezing. It is recommended to do a good deal in the short term and not love war. As the policy environment of the Internet industry \"develops in norms\", it is regarded as a marginal warming, and it is expected to follow the rebound of U.S. technology stocks in the short term. But in the long run, the big logic of the Internet has been subverted, and it has shifted from the previous \"high growth and high valuation\" to the logic of value stocks. In the medium term, the tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the bottom of U.S. stocks in the medium term have not yet been seen. Therefore, the rebound of the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of the year still needs to be repeatedly traded and hedged.</p><p>Revaluation of Hong Kong stocks of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises: 1) In the first quarter, China's \"wide currency and wide credit\" policy benefits from the opportunity, paying attention to the revaluation of finance, real estate, construction and building materials, especially \"bond-like\" high-dividend stocks. 2) Reform of state-owned enterprises, especially the opportunities for state-owned enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions, paying attention to opportunities such as railways, electric power, real estate and securities firms. 3) The opportunity of market prosperity is expected to improve, pay attention to agriculture.</p><p>Hong Kong local financial stocks, benefiting from the expectation of European and American rate hike, the revaluation will continue.</p><p>Opportunities for deeper rebound in industries damaged by the epidemic, selected logistics, catering and tourism, etc.</p><p>Blue chip stocks in the fields of household appliances and electrical tools exported to Europe and America.</p><p><b>3.3. Based on the medium and long term, select the alpha opportunity of Hong Kong stocks</b></p><p><b>Gold rush Hong Kong stock science and technology innovation company, advanced manufacturing leader.</b>1) New energy vehicle industry chain 2) New energy industry chain such as wind, solar, nuclear and hydrogen, new energy operators, power equipment, etc. 3) Hong Kong stock TMT leader<b>。</b></p><p><b>Wait patiently and increase your holdings in the consumer service sector on dips.</b>1) Food and beverage 2) Textiles and apparel 3) Property management and business management 4) Medicine 5) Emerging consumption.</p><p><b>Transformation and Revaluation of Hong Kong Stocks of Central Enterprises</b>(For details, please refer to 20220107 \"Good Opportunities for Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks of High-quality Central Enterprises\").</p><p><b>4. Risk warning</b></p><p>The economic growth rate of China and the United States declined; The United States continues to have high inflation, and the United States monetary policy tightens ahead of schedule beyond expectations; Great Power Game Risk; COVID-19 pandemic variation exceeded expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109587984","content_text":"1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》。1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%。另外，1月份，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；行业上能源业、电讯业和综合业领涨，医疗保健业、非必需性消费业和工业领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet、0202 Meta Platform、0203亚马逊的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度。2月份是北京冬奥会阶段，海外地缘政治风险有望缓和。围绕乌克兰地缘政治风险有望在2月份开始通过谈判逐步降温，进而，对于欧洲能源危机、全球油价风险的担忧将会随之阶段性降温。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份TAPER将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑。稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）2021年央企效益增长创历史最好水平，净利润同比增长29.8%。2）2022年国内稳经济政策发力，国企央企将承担着稳增长的主要任务。3）2022年国企改革三年行动收官之年，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”。中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情：互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会。淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链 2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等 3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。风险提示：中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期报告正文1、1月观点及行情回顾1.1、观点回顾：1月策略《港股曙光再现》2021年10月14日深度报告《防守反击，投资时钟从“类滞胀”转向“衰退”》提出，今年四季度，中国投资时钟下一步更大概率的场景是衰退，10月份正从“类滞胀”转向衰退；四季度欧美仍有滞胀压力，美债收益率和美元反弹带来短期惊扰。港股：底部区域，反复“磨底”、熬炼人心，其中，10月至11月中旬是好的反弹窗口，但反弹以后，不排除到年底的时候港股会面临动荡。2021年11月1日报告《行情磨“底部”更磨人心》指出：港股仍将在底部区域反复“磨底”，结构性行情仍将跟随A股。11月行情展望——10月份反弹以后，港股四季度持续反弹的动能较弱。2021年12月1日报告《在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光》指出：恒指在反复确认底部、港股悲观情绪集中释放后，港股有望迎来反弹。要在失望之幽谷找寻黎明的曙光，精选并耐心布局长线优质股票。2022年1月1日报告《港股曙光再现》中强调，2022年1月港股曙光再现，内外部环境有利于反弹的时间窗口：国内稳经济政策发力，2022年一季度货币政策有望进一步宽松；内地政策环境变化对港股影响在边际改善。2022年1月21日报告《美股大波动，港股缘何大涨？》指出：美国“收水”目前对于“全球估值洼地”港股市场的影响有限，渐渐脱敏；港股在中国“稳增长、宽货币”的政策春风中迎来黎明。2022年1月25日报告《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》预判美股短期有望企稳反弹，长债利率陡升、市场反身性冲击、1月FOMC等对美股的影响告一段落。美股权重股业绩以及之后可能的回购，将决定后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？另外，中期展望，美股中期底还没有到。1.2、1月行情回顾：上旬，港股权重板块表现强劲；下旬，行情调整，全月恒指收涨1.7%截至1月31日，1月份港股主要指数，恒生指数涨1.7%，恒生国指涨1.4%，恒生综指跌0.2%；另外，恒生大型股涨1.0%，恒生中型股跌4.3%，恒生科技跌4.5%，恒生小型股跌6.3%。行业上，恒生能源业（涨10.5%）、电讯业（涨10.1%）和综合业（涨9.0%）领涨，医疗保健业（跌15.1%）、非必需性消费业（跌11.1%）和工业（跌7.3%）领跌。2、港股展望：2月将迎来风险偏好改善，但中期海外风险仍将干扰行情2.1、海外预判：短期美股见底后2月将是反弹窗口；但是，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股中期底还未到2.1.1、短期，美股已见底并有望反弹，有利于提升A股和港股风险偏好美股符合预判，确认短期底。美国长债利率回落；VIX在0128的收盘为27.66，较0124盘中最高值38.94明显回落；FOMC没有超预期更鹰派。后续美股反弹性质取决于基本面预期。后续美股能否出现一波像样的反弹？或只是下跌中继式喘息？《美股短期底和中期底预测及美股波动对中国股市影响》判断这将取决于美股权重股业绩以及之后的回购。苹果公司(AAPL.US)最新季报超预期带动了美股反弹，后续看0201Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、0202 MetaPlatform(FB.US)、0203亚马逊(AMZN.US)的业绩，并聚焦之后的美股回购和高管增持力度——根据媒体的报道，Netflix(NFLX.US)因业绩不达预期下跌后其联席首席执行官Reed Hastings买入价值2千万美元的Netflix股票。2.1.2、中期，上半年美国货币政策持续收缩，美股2季度仍有较大波动风险，海外股市波动将是常态，导致港股跌深反弹之路并非坦途首先，上半年美债长端利率易上难下，2月份回落喘息之后将继续上升。美债联储作为美债市场的重要买盘力量，随着联储购债快速退潮，3月份Taper将结束。基于上半年高通胀，3月首次加息后，联储缩表的讨论也将提上日程，我们判断，美债10年期国债收益率2季度有望突破2%。关于缩减购债，1月FOMC决议维持当前缩减购债步伐，因此2022年3月联储将结束购债；关于缩表，1月FOMC会后答记者问鲍威尔表示“将在加息至少一次之后开会讨论具体缩表事宜”。其次，强劲的加息预期居高不下，也将持续压制上半年美股行情。截至20220128联邦基金利率期货市场已预计联储3月加息不止1次（一次25bp）。基于全球供应链压力居高不下，上半年美国高通胀大概率具有粘性，难以明显回落，不排除市场对联储 3、5、6 月 FOMC 利率决议持续谨慎。第三，基于全球疫情对全球供应链的影响以及前两年政策“大放水”的后遗症，海外高通胀风险以及海外多国加息共振的风险仍不容忽视。目前新兴市场加息应对联储收紧，发达市场方面，据媒体报道，市场预计0203英国央行、0223新西兰央行、0302加拿大央行也大概率加息，0203欧洲央行的今年首次利率决议表态也至关重要。2.2、中国宏观展望：政策“以我为主、稳字当头”，政策进一步宽松可期待稳增长基调下，货币政策进一步宽松仍可期待，从而，一方面避免房地产等领域出现系统性信用风险，另一方面，有利于稳预期、稳需求。当前经济增速仍面临下行压力，1季度房地产债务到期压力加大，房地产等领域的信用风险及其对经济的拖累依然不容低估，所以，近期调降MLF、各个期限的LPR是积极的应对信号，后续货币及财政的进一步宽松值得期待。除了进一步宽货币，春节之后，基建投资特别是新基建将有望发力。在经济增速仍面临较大下行压力的大背景下，2021年四季度，实际GDP同比增长4.0%，较三季度回落0.9个百分点。受疫情反复的拖累，消费增速短暂回暖后再次承压。当前，在房住不炒、不把房地产作为刺激经济的主要手段的前提下，能够快速稳经济的主要手段，依然要依靠“稳基建”，特别是长期有利于调结构短期有利于稳增长的广义“新基建”。根据兴业证券宏观团队研究，2022年提前批次的新增专项债额度已于2021年12月下达，下达时间略早于2021年同期，体现政府“适度超前开展基础设施投资”的决心。随着11月、12月专项债发行加速，12月基建增速已有回暖，往后看，2022年上半年基建投资或迎来发力。2.3、权重板块政策面和基本面的预期改善，港股底部区域有支撑稳增长政策力度有望进一步加大，港股相关行业仍有上涨动力。1）建筑、建材为代表的传统行业景气改善，低估值港股央企价值重估；2）风光核氢等新能源、电网等“新基建”类股票高景气持续，行情分化；3）内地券商受益于“衰退性宽松”下的资本市场活跃，相关港股的价值有望重估。中国房地产政策边际改善。2022年1月初至今，房地产的政策环境不断改善，向实现良性循环迈进：LPR利率下调；部分城市预售资金监管政策有所放松；1月20日，全国住房和城乡建设工作会议召开，会议强调要把防风险摆在更加突出的位置，防范化解住房和城乡建设领域风险，要更好地激发企业活力，要稳增长，充分释放居民住房需求等。互联网产业政策边际改善。2022年互联网政策导向从“防止资本无序扩张”转向“在规范中发展”，1月28日，中央网信办会同国家发改委、工信部、市场监管总局召开促进互联网企业健康持续发展工作座谈会，会上相关负责人强调，“当前，我国经济发展环境长期利好的整体态势和发展趋势没有改变，互联网企业发展前景广阔、大有作为，必须把握大势、坚定信心；我国互联网领域法治不断健全、监管不断完善是客观要求、大势所趋，这为互联网企业加强管理、规范运营提供了有力保障，必须正确看待、积极适应”。香港金融股受益于英美加息预期，价值重估将继续。国企改革值得期待，央企价值重估的大潮方兴未艾。1）1月19日，国新办举行2021年央企经济运行情况新闻发布会，国资委相关负责人在会上透露，2021年中央企业效益增长创历史最好水平，实现营业收入36.3万亿元，同比增长19.5%，利润同比增长了30.3%，净利润同比增长了29.8%。2）在“经济工作要稳字当头、稳中求进”的要求下，国资委表示，2022年央企将围绕“两增一控三提高”的目标，把完成稳增长任务和推动高质量发展结合起来，以稳促进、以进固稳，为经济社会发展作出更大贡献。3）同时，2022年是国企改革三年行动收官之年，在实施“双碳”战略、高质量发展、共同富裕的新时代，部分港股央企的基本面正迎来转机或转型机遇。3、投资建议：短期留一半清醒留一半醉，防守反击；中期积小胜为大胜，精选个股3.1、2022年港股的投资策略需要“立足价值、精选个股，做好防守反击，积小胜为大胜”中长期来看，港股同时受海外资金面、情绪面及中国基本面的影响的大框架难以改变。在中国经济上半年面临压力，而美国连续加息，美股中期调整未完、全年震荡的基本判断下，2022年港股投资更加需要防守反击，立足价值、精选个股，才能夹缝中求生存、趋利避害，积小胜为大胜。3.2、2月份反弹行情的投资方向：立足基本面预期改善，聚焦“均值回归”行情互联网龙头的反弹和分化：主要动力是short squeezing，建议短期做好交易、不要恋战。随着互联网产业政策环境“在规范中发展”算是边际转暖，短期有望跟随美股科技股反弹。但长期而言，互联网的大逻辑已经被颠覆，已经从以往的“高成长高估值”转向价值股逻辑。中期，美国货币政策收紧、美股中期底部还没有见到，所以，上半年港股互联网板块的反弹行情仍要反复做交易、做好对冲保护。国企央企港股的重估行情：1）1季度中国“宽货币、宽信用”政策红利受益的机会，关注金融、地产、建筑、建材特别是“类债券”高息股的价值重估行情。2）国企改革，特别是国企进行并购重组的机会，关注铁路、电力、地产、券商等机会。3）行情景气有望改善的机会，关注农业。香港本地金融股，受益于欧美加息预期，价值重估将继续。疫情受损行业的跌深反弹机会，精选物流、餐饮旅游等。出口欧美的家电及电器工具等领域的绩优股。3.3、立足中长期，精选港股的阿尔法机会淘金港股科创公司、先进制造业龙头。1）新能源车产业链2）风光核氢等新能源产业链、新能源运营商、电力设备等3）港股TMT龙头。耐心等待，逢低增持消费服务领域的龙头。1）食品饮料2）纺织服装3）物管商管4）医药5）新兴消费。央企港股的转型重估行情（详参20220107《优质央企港股的配置良机》）。4、风险提示中、美经济增速下行；美国持续高通胀，美国货币政策提前超预期收紧；大国博弈风险；新冠疫情变异超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197279035,"gmtCreate":1621471182827,"gmtModify":1704358067402,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/197279035","repostId":"1126565046","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035552205,"gmtCreate":1647646692217,"gmtModify":1676534253895,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035552205","repostId":"1169147645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169147645","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647616397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169147645?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-18 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169147645","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>At one point, it rose more than 40% in the session, the largest intraday gain since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrazil's \"Alipay\" StoneCo once rose more than 40% in intraday session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-18 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 18th, Brazil's \"Alipay\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>At one point, it rose more than 40% in the session, the largest intraday gain since the company's 2018 U.S. IPO. StoneCo is also owned by \"stock god\" Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>One of Hathaway's holdings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1260927ca2e05a04a5320752ae60887\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","BK4558":"双十一","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK1586":"云计算","STNE":"StoneCo","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169147645","content_text":"3月18日讯，巴西“支付宝”StoneCo盘中一度上涨超40%，创该公司2018年美国IPO以来最大盘中涨幅。StoneCo也是“股神”巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦持仓股之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"STNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}