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benjaminlkw

benjaminlkw

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2022-06-13

Bullish

Recession? No, It's a Booming Economy

2022-06-14

Bullish

Bear-Market Tips for Retirees: Stay Invested, Buy Dividend Stocks, and Bank Online

2022-06-29

Wow thanks . Let me add more shares

Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading

2022-04-29

Good

Hot Chinese ADRs Soared in Morning Trading

2022-10-14

Bullish

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2022-04-19

Niceeeeeeeeee

2022-04-18

Niceeeeeeeeee

2022-04-15

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2022-04-14

Niceeeeeeee

2022-04-13

Niceeeeeeeeee

2022-04-13

Nice

@TigerEvents:🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!

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Shares in China-based electric vehicle (or EV) companies have fallen out of favor among investors, but the shift in sentiment has been the most dramatic among this particular name.</p><p>As a result of its extended price decline since June, Xpeng has become seemingly undervalued, if you compare its valuation (on a price/sales, or P/S, basis) to that of comparable names.</p><p>But while it’s true XPeng trades at a discount to its peers, that doesn’t make it a bargain. There’s a reason why XPEV trades at a lower sales multiple. This company is facing even more challenges than the other high-profile China-based EV makers with U.S. stock market listings.</p><p>It’s not an opportune move to try and call a bottom in this stock, as it’s likely to become “cheaper” from here. Here’s why.</p><p><b>XPEV Stock and its Discounted Valuation</b></p><p>XPeng stock currently has a P/S ratio of around 1.9. <b>Li Auto</b>(NASDAQ:<b>LI</b>) and <b>Nio</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>), the other two China EV stocks popular with U.S. investors, each have P/S ratios around 3.5.</p><p>Given that analyst forecasts call for this company to experience a similarly-high level of sales growth next year, this may at glance create the assumption that XPEV stock is mispriced. However, take a closer look at the details, and that’s clearly not the case.</p><p>XPeng isn’t the only Chinese EV maker facing challenges. China’s economic slowdown has only started to affect EV demand, but the situation could intensify in the coming months. As<i>Barron’s</i>reported on Oct 1., the latest delivery figures for Li Auto and Nio may signal that both names are struggling to take their sales to the next level.</p><p>But while Li and Nio may be facing growth challenges, XPeng’s deliveries are in decline. As I discussed on Sep. 30, from June through August, XPeng’s monthly vehicle delivery numbers dropped from15,295 to 9,578.</p><p>For September, deliveries fell yet again, to just 8,468 vehicles. Declining sales, plus worsening fundamentals, justify XPEV’s discounted (and declining) valuation.</p><p><b>Why XPeng Could Keep Dropping</b></p><p>It’s not only falling delivery numbers that make XPEV stock a less appealing opportunity than its peers. This company is also facing the issue of widening losses.</p><p>Over the past year, XPeng’s quarterly net losses more than doubled, from$185 million to $403.1 million, or from 23 cents to 47 cents per share. Sell-side estimates call for GAAP losses to come in at a similar amount this quarter (48 cents).</p><p>If the company fails to make progress in getting out of the red, shares will continue to trend lower. There’s a good chance of this happening for two reasons.</p><p>First, it’s debatable whether the launch of XPeng’s latest model, the G9 Flagship SUV, will help to reverse the aforementioned deliveries/sales decline.</p><p>So far, sales of newer models have failed to counter declining sales among older models. This could continue to be the case, especially given decreasingly-favorable conditions in the Chinese EV market. It’ll be difficult for Xpeng to narrow losses if sales keep dropping.</p><p>Second, despite the challenges in its home market, XPeng is moving ahead with plans to expand into Europe. This will likely create initial losses, piled atop continued losses for the company’s existing operations.</p><p><b>Bottom Line on XPEV Stock</b></p><p>Based on the most recently reported financial and delivery figures for XPeng, there’s little to indicate that this EV maker is on the verge of turning a corner. In fact, there’s a lot more out there pointing toward continued deterioration of its fundamentals. This in turn will drive a further move lower for shares.</p><p>That’s not to say this stock is heading to zero. XPeng currently has sufficient cash and short-term investments on hand (totaling $4.82 billion) to sustain itself for the next few years.</p><p>However, after falling nearly 75% over the past twelve months, depending on the severity of China’s in-progress economic downturn, another 75% drop may be in the cards.</p><p>XPEV stock has already hurt plenty of bottom-fishers, who’ve attempted to catch this “falling knife” since the summer. As it stands to continue being a “falling knife” situation, don’t become XPEV’s next victim. Instead, avoid this stock.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China EV Play XPEV Stock Has Not Hit a Bottom Yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina EV Play XPEV Stock Has Not Hit a Bottom Yet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-14 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/10/china-ev-play-xpev-stock-has-not-hit-a-bottom-yet/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On paper, XPeng(XPEV) is 'cheaper' than other publicly-traded Chinese electric vehicle stocks.The low price hardly makes it a bargain, given this company is facing even more challenges than its peers....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/10/china-ev-play-xpev-stock-has-not-hit-a-bottom-yet/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/market360/2022/10/china-ev-play-xpev-stock-has-not-hit-a-bottom-yet/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175220136","content_text":"On paper, XPeng(XPEV) is 'cheaper' than other publicly-traded Chinese electric vehicle stocks.The low price hardly makes it a bargain, given this company is facing even more challenges than its peers.XPEV is and will continue to be a \"falling knife\" situation, which makes avoiding it your best move.I can see why contrarian investors may be interested in XPeng(NYSE:XPEV) stock. Shares in China-based electric vehicle (or EV) companies have fallen out of favor among investors, but the shift in sentiment has been the most dramatic among this particular name.As a result of its extended price decline since June, Xpeng has become seemingly undervalued, if you compare its valuation (on a price/sales, or P/S, basis) to that of comparable names.But while it’s true XPeng trades at a discount to its peers, that doesn’t make it a bargain. There’s a reason why XPEV trades at a lower sales multiple. This company is facing even more challenges than the other high-profile China-based EV makers with U.S. stock market listings.It’s not an opportune move to try and call a bottom in this stock, as it’s likely to become “cheaper” from here. Here’s why.XPEV Stock and its Discounted ValuationXPeng stock currently has a P/S ratio of around 1.9. Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI) and Nio(NYSE:NIO), the other two China EV stocks popular with U.S. investors, each have P/S ratios around 3.5.Given that analyst forecasts call for this company to experience a similarly-high level of sales growth next year, this may at glance create the assumption that XPEV stock is mispriced. However, take a closer look at the details, and that’s clearly not the case.XPeng isn’t the only Chinese EV maker facing challenges. China’s economic slowdown has only started to affect EV demand, but the situation could intensify in the coming months. AsBarron’sreported on Oct 1., the latest delivery figures for Li Auto and Nio may signal that both names are struggling to take their sales to the next level.But while Li and Nio may be facing growth challenges, XPeng’s deliveries are in decline. As I discussed on Sep. 30, from June through August, XPeng’s monthly vehicle delivery numbers dropped from15,295 to 9,578.For September, deliveries fell yet again, to just 8,468 vehicles. Declining sales, plus worsening fundamentals, justify XPEV’s discounted (and declining) valuation.Why XPeng Could Keep DroppingIt’s not only falling delivery numbers that make XPEV stock a less appealing opportunity than its peers. This company is also facing the issue of widening losses.Over the past year, XPeng’s quarterly net losses more than doubled, from$185 million to $403.1 million, or from 23 cents to 47 cents per share. Sell-side estimates call for GAAP losses to come in at a similar amount this quarter (48 cents).If the company fails to make progress in getting out of the red, shares will continue to trend lower. There’s a good chance of this happening for two reasons.First, it’s debatable whether the launch of XPeng’s latest model, the G9 Flagship SUV, will help to reverse the aforementioned deliveries/sales decline.So far, sales of newer models have failed to counter declining sales among older models. This could continue to be the case, especially given decreasingly-favorable conditions in the Chinese EV market. It’ll be difficult for Xpeng to narrow losses if sales keep dropping.Second, despite the challenges in its home market, XPeng is moving ahead with plans to expand into Europe. This will likely create initial losses, piled atop continued losses for the company’s existing operations.Bottom Line on XPEV StockBased on the most recently reported financial and delivery figures for XPeng, there’s little to indicate that this EV maker is on the verge of turning a corner. In fact, there’s a lot more out there pointing toward continued deterioration of its fundamentals. This in turn will drive a further move lower for shares.That’s not to say this stock is heading to zero. XPeng currently has sufficient cash and short-term investments on hand (totaling $4.82 billion) to sustain itself for the next few years.However, after falling nearly 75% over the past twelve months, depending on the severity of China’s in-progress economic downturn, another 75% drop may be in the cards.XPEV stock has already hurt plenty of bottom-fishers, who’ve attempted to catch this “falling knife” since the summer. As it stands to continue being a “falling knife” situation, don’t become XPEV’s next victim. Instead, avoid this stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042506894,"gmtCreate":1656491497518,"gmtModify":1676535839891,"author":{"id":"3564133039702293","authorId":"3564133039702293","name":"benjaminlkw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d2864ce5ceda6f4be6a6ef2e1ab58d8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564133039702293","authorIdStr":"3564133039702293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow thanks . Let me add more shares&nbsp;","listText":"Wow thanks . Let me add more shares&nbsp;","text":"Wow thanks . Let me add more 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Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15b435c0d10e0e89ad3e06b7bbd04830","width":"2251","height":"1334"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff9640a9df2f24446e07b7a9b658cb4b","width":"1200","height":"630"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/795038848b7c7b1d7dda27d92b580946","width":"1656","height":"948"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016476123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9052999647,"gmtCreate":1655103136189,"gmtModify":1676535562342,"author":{"id":"3564133039702293","authorId":"3564133039702293","name":"benjaminlkw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d2864ce5ceda6f4be6a6ef2e1ab58d8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564133039702293","authorIdStr":"3564133039702293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish","listText":"Bullish","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052999647","repostId":"2242718589","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242718589","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1655099572,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242718589?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-13 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Recession? No, It's a Booming Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242718589","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"By Jeffrey FrankelAbout the author: Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formatio","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>By Jeffrey Frankel</p><p>About the author: Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth, Harvard University. He was a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, 1992-2019.</p><p>U.S. consumer sentiment by one measure is at its lowest level since 2011. More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative. A majority of Republicans and many Democrats tell pollsters they believe we are currently in recession.</p><p>So, is the economy in a recession? No. People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running its highest since 1982. But inflation is not recession, which is defined as a significant decline in economic activity. Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: It is booming.</p><p>In many countries, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product. In the U.S., the official arbiter of recessions is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit research organization. The NBER committee does not use any mechanical rule.</p><p>What does the NBER committee look at to decide if there has been a significant decline in economic activity? The most important criterion is whether national output has fallen. GDP has risen rapidly since the start of 2021, at 4% per annum, averaging over the five quarters. The market for goods and services is booming.</p><p>The NBER also looks at a second measure of national output, called gross domestic income. The most recent data indicate that output rose slightly in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>There is no reason to think that growth is now turning negative. Indeed, domestic demand has continued strong, making it likely that the expansion will continue in the second quarter.</p><p>The second most important criterion is the state of the labor market. Here, employment is traditionally the primary indicator. But other relevant measures of whether the labor market is tight or loose include the unemployment rate, the ratio of employment to population, and job vacancies. By most of these measures, the labor market is booming. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, close to the lowest it has been in 50 years. There are currently almost two job vacancies for every unemployed worker, the highest this ratio has been since the data were first collected.</p><p>A peak in the business cycle marks the start of a recession. To pinpoint the precise month of a turning point, the NBER committee also looks at other indicators, including real personal income less transfers, real personal consumption expenditures, real sales and industrial production. Like national output and employment, these measures do not currently suggest a downturn.</p><p>At some point there will be another recession. But the odds that it will hit the U.S. this year are nowhere near as high as people seem to think. In a random year, the odds are about 15%. Currently they are higher than that. But not much.</p><p>It is true that there are serious risks internationally. The European Union&#39;s economy will be negatively impacted by cuts in imports of Russian oil and gas. China&#39;s economy will be negatively impacted by shutdowns in pursuit of zero Covid. These could have spillover effects.</p><p>Does the high level of U.S. inflation make a recession likely? There is a sense in which inflation and recession are opposite conditions. The factors that drove the strong economic recovery following the Covid-19 recession of early 2020 also drove inflation up. They included expansionary monetary policy by the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy by the White House and Congress, mostly transfers that boosted households&#39; disposable income. These factors boosted demand in 2020 and 2021.</p><p>In light of the ensuing inflation, macroeconomic stimulus was probably excessive. Still, it is good that we were able to bring unemployment below 4% in less than two years. We are much better off than we were after the Great Recession of 2007-09, when fiscal stimulus was too little and too short-lived. That time, it took nine years to bring unemployment down below 4%.</p><p>Inflation is more likely to induce consumers to boost spending than to cut it. Inflation is defined, not as a one-time increase in prices, but as an ongoing upward trend in the price level. When inflation is high, households and firms often spend more, reacting to the likelihood that goods prices will be even higher tomorrow than they are today.</p><p>Not all of the current inflation can be attributed to expanding demand. Supply chain disruptions and Russia-related increases in global prices for oil and other commodities have pushed inflation up as well.</p><p>To be sure, there is a sense in which high inflation can lead to recession. Sooner or later, the central bank has to raise interest rates in order to restrain demand and bring inflation down to a normal level. It is tricky to pull this off without a recession. That is the main reason why a downturn at some point in the next two years is more likely than usual. The Fed has raised the short-term interest rate by 0.75 percentage points since February, and has indicated that it will continue throughout the year.</p><p>But the interest rate still has a long way to go. For 2022, monetary policy still counts as easy. For now, economic activity will probably continue to expand.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Recession? No, It's a Booming Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecession? No, It's a Booming Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-13 13:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>By Jeffrey Frankel</p><p>About the author: Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth, Harvard University. He was a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, 1992-2019.</p><p>U.S. consumer sentiment by one measure is at its lowest level since 2011. More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative. A majority of Republicans and many Democrats tell pollsters they believe we are currently in recession.</p><p>So, is the economy in a recession? No. People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running its highest since 1982. But inflation is not recession, which is defined as a significant decline in economic activity. Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: It is booming.</p><p>In many countries, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product. In the U.S., the official arbiter of recessions is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit research organization. The NBER committee does not use any mechanical rule.</p><p>What does the NBER committee look at to decide if there has been a significant decline in economic activity? The most important criterion is whether national output has fallen. GDP has risen rapidly since the start of 2021, at 4% per annum, averaging over the five quarters. The market for goods and services is booming.</p><p>The NBER also looks at a second measure of national output, called gross domestic income. The most recent data indicate that output rose slightly in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>There is no reason to think that growth is now turning negative. Indeed, domestic demand has continued strong, making it likely that the expansion will continue in the second quarter.</p><p>The second most important criterion is the state of the labor market. Here, employment is traditionally the primary indicator. But other relevant measures of whether the labor market is tight or loose include the unemployment rate, the ratio of employment to population, and job vacancies. By most of these measures, the labor market is booming. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, close to the lowest it has been in 50 years. There are currently almost two job vacancies for every unemployed worker, the highest this ratio has been since the data were first collected.</p><p>A peak in the business cycle marks the start of a recession. To pinpoint the precise month of a turning point, the NBER committee also looks at other indicators, including real personal income less transfers, real personal consumption expenditures, real sales and industrial production. Like national output and employment, these measures do not currently suggest a downturn.</p><p>At some point there will be another recession. But the odds that it will hit the U.S. this year are nowhere near as high as people seem to think. In a random year, the odds are about 15%. Currently they are higher than that. But not much.</p><p>It is true that there are serious risks internationally. The European Union&#39;s economy will be negatively impacted by cuts in imports of Russian oil and gas. China&#39;s economy will be negatively impacted by shutdowns in pursuit of zero Covid. These could have spillover effects.</p><p>Does the high level of U.S. inflation make a recession likely? There is a sense in which inflation and recession are opposite conditions. The factors that drove the strong economic recovery following the Covid-19 recession of early 2020 also drove inflation up. They included expansionary monetary policy by the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy by the White House and Congress, mostly transfers that boosted households&#39; disposable income. These factors boosted demand in 2020 and 2021.</p><p>In light of the ensuing inflation, macroeconomic stimulus was probably excessive. Still, it is good that we were able to bring unemployment below 4% in less than two years. We are much better off than we were after the Great Recession of 2007-09, when fiscal stimulus was too little and too short-lived. That time, it took nine years to bring unemployment down below 4%.</p><p>Inflation is more likely to induce consumers to boost spending than to cut it. Inflation is defined, not as a one-time increase in prices, but as an ongoing upward trend in the price level. When inflation is high, households and firms often spend more, reacting to the likelihood that goods prices will be even higher tomorrow than they are today.</p><p>Not all of the current inflation can be attributed to expanding demand. Supply chain disruptions and Russia-related increases in global prices for oil and other commodities have pushed inflation up as well.</p><p>To be sure, there is a sense in which high inflation can lead to recession. Sooner or later, the central bank has to raise interest rates in order to restrain demand and bring inflation down to a normal level. It is tricky to pull this off without a recession. That is the main reason why a downturn at some point in the next two years is more likely than usual. The Fed has raised the short-term interest rate by 0.75 percentage points since February, and has indicated that it will continue throughout the year.</p><p>But the interest rate still has a long way to go. For 2022, monetary policy still counts as easy. For now, economic activity will probably continue to expand.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242718589","content_text":"By Jeffrey FrankelAbout the author: Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth, Harvard University. He was a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, 1992-2019.U.S. consumer sentiment by one measure is at its lowest level since 2011. More Americans say they hear mostly negative news about the economy than hear positive news, or a balance of positive and negative. A majority of Republicans and many Democrats tell pollsters they believe we are currently in recession.So, is the economy in a recession? No. People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running its highest since 1982. But inflation is not recession, which is defined as a significant decline in economic activity. Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: It is booming.In many countries, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product. In the U.S., the official arbiter of recessions is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit research organization. The NBER committee does not use any mechanical rule.What does the NBER committee look at to decide if there has been a significant decline in economic activity? The most important criterion is whether national output has fallen. GDP has risen rapidly since the start of 2021, at 4% per annum, averaging over the five quarters. The market for goods and services is booming.The NBER also looks at a second measure of national output, called gross domestic income. The most recent data indicate that output rose slightly in the first quarter of 2022.There is no reason to think that growth is now turning negative. Indeed, domestic demand has continued strong, making it likely that the expansion will continue in the second quarter.The second most important criterion is the state of the labor market. Here, employment is traditionally the primary indicator. But other relevant measures of whether the labor market is tight or loose include the unemployment rate, the ratio of employment to population, and job vacancies. By most of these measures, the labor market is booming. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, close to the lowest it has been in 50 years. There are currently almost two job vacancies for every unemployed worker, the highest this ratio has been since the data were first collected.A peak in the business cycle marks the start of a recession. To pinpoint the precise month of a turning point, the NBER committee also looks at other indicators, including real personal income less transfers, real personal consumption expenditures, real sales and industrial production. Like national output and employment, these measures do not currently suggest a downturn.At some point there will be another recession. But the odds that it will hit the U.S. this year are nowhere near as high as people seem to think. In a random year, the odds are about 15%. Currently they are higher than that. But not much.It is true that there are serious risks internationally. The European Union's economy will be negatively impacted by cuts in imports of Russian oil and gas. China's economy will be negatively impacted by shutdowns in pursuit of zero Covid. These could have spillover effects.Does the high level of U.S. inflation make a recession likely? There is a sense in which inflation and recession are opposite conditions. The factors that drove the strong economic recovery following the Covid-19 recession of early 2020 also drove inflation up. They included expansionary monetary policy by the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy by the White House and Congress, mostly transfers that boosted households' disposable income. These factors boosted demand in 2020 and 2021.In light of the ensuing inflation, macroeconomic stimulus was probably excessive. Still, it is good that we were able to bring unemployment below 4% in less than two years. We are much better off than we were after the Great Recession of 2007-09, when fiscal stimulus was too little and too short-lived. That time, it took nine years to bring unemployment down below 4%.Inflation is more likely to induce consumers to boost spending than to cut it. Inflation is defined, not as a one-time increase in prices, but as an ongoing upward trend in the price level. When inflation is high, households and firms often spend more, reacting to the likelihood that goods prices will be even higher tomorrow than they are today.Not all of the current inflation can be attributed to expanding demand. Supply chain disruptions and Russia-related increases in global prices for oil and other commodities have pushed inflation up as well.To be sure, there is a sense in which high inflation can lead to recession. Sooner or later, the central bank has to raise interest rates in order to restrain demand and bring inflation down to a normal level. It is tricky to pull this off without a recession. That is the main reason why a downturn at some point in the next two years is more likely than usual. The Fed has raised the short-term interest rate by 0.75 percentage points since February, and has indicated that it will continue throughout the year.But the interest rate still has a long way to go. For 2022, monetary policy still counts as easy. For now, economic activity will probably continue to expand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9052599672,"gmtCreate":1655190525196,"gmtModify":1676535578436,"author":{"id":"3564133039702293","authorId":"3564133039702293","name":"benjaminlkw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d2864ce5ceda6f4be6a6ef2e1ab58d8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564133039702293","authorIdStr":"3564133039702293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bullish&nbsp;","listText":"Bullish&nbsp;","text":"Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9052599672","repostId":"1143820039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143820039","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1655187269,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143820039?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-14 14:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear-Market Tips for Retirees: Stay Invested, Buy Dividend Stocks, and Bank Online","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143820039","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Will the bear market inflict a bigger bite on retirees than younger investors? Not necessarily, expe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Will the bear market inflict a bigger bite on retirees than younger investors? Not necessarily, experts say, as the duration of the average bear market is measured in months and retirees who are able to stay the course should be able to recover losses.</p><p>It takes 14 months on average for stocks to get back to break-even during a “garden-variety” bear market, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research. If this bear market shapes up like average, then, the S&amp;P 500 would fall 27%, hit a bottom in early October, and then break even by February 2024. Even the deepest of bear markets takes about five years for stocks to get back to break-even, Stovall said.</p><p>The upshot? “Unless you think it’s going to be 1929 all over again, I’d say stay the course,” Stovall said, referring to the stock market crash in October of that year and the start of the Great Depression.</p><p>For now, though, the big investor worry is that the central bank, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, could tip the economy into a recession as it aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. The stock market tends to hit bottom about five months before a recession ends, and we won’t know that we’re officially in a recession until it’s already under way. The National Bureau of Economic Research typically calls a recession, retroactively, around the time that stocks hit their trough, so that call serves as a kind of contrarian buy signal, Stovall said.</p><p>It can be hard to sit on your hands amid market volatility, so if you feel the need to do something, consider making a stock wish list, Stovall said. Income-focused retirees should think more like landlords than traders, he said. In other words, you want to own companies that can pay the rent (dividends, in this analogy) on time and can weather increases in rent. Dividend payers that CFRA analysts like in this environment include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">Advance Auto Parts</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RL\">Ralph Lauren</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITB\">Fifth Third Bancorp</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>.</p><p>Pulling your money from stocks might make you feel safe in the short term. Problem is, you’re unlikely to get back into the market in time. Over a 20-year period, missing the 10 best days results in annualized returns that are roughly half of what you would have gotten had you stayed invested and not tried to time the market, according to research from J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Investors might be surprised to learn that during this period, the market’s best days tend to fall within two weeks of its worst days.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors of all ages should take advantage of rising interest rates and put any cash on hand to use. “The only free lunch in finance is the ability to get additional yield without taking on additional risk,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com.</p><p>One way to do that today, he said, is by moving your savings from a big legacy bank that pays around 0.01% in interest to an online bank. Online banks are starting to offer more competitive rates on their high-yield savings accounts. For example, Ally is offering a 0.90% annual percentage yield, and Marcus is offering 0.85%.  Rates will likely continue to rise and may hit 2% by the year, McBride said.</p><p>Lucas Kulma, a financial advisor at Moneta Group in Denver, keeps his retired clients’ immediate spending needs in a high-yield savings account. He keeps money for their intermediate-term needs, between four to eight years’ worth of expenses, in bonds. He constructs bond ladders with municipal bonds in taxable accounts and corporate bonds in tax-deferred accounts, using staggered maturities of as short as six months to take advantage of rising interest rates.</p><p>Kulma also likes Series I savings bonds, which currently yield 9.62%. You can buy up to $10,000 in I bonds during each calendar year (so a couple could buy $20,000). They cannot be cashed within 12 months of purchase without a penalty, and this relative lack of liquidity means they belong in clients’ intermediate-term bond bucket, not in the cash bucket, Kulma said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear-Market Tips for Retirees: Stay Invested, Buy Dividend Stocks, and Bank Online</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear-Market Tips for Retirees: Stay Invested, Buy Dividend Stocks, and Bank Online\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-14 14:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Will the bear market inflict a bigger bite on retirees than younger investors? Not necessarily, experts say, as the duration of the average bear market is measured in months and retirees who are able to stay the course should be able to recover losses.</p><p>It takes 14 months on average for stocks to get back to break-even during a “garden-variety” bear market, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research. If this bear market shapes up like average, then, the S&amp;P 500 would fall 27%, hit a bottom in early October, and then break even by February 2024. Even the deepest of bear markets takes about five years for stocks to get back to break-even, Stovall said.</p><p>The upshot? “Unless you think it’s going to be 1929 all over again, I’d say stay the course,” Stovall said, referring to the stock market crash in October of that year and the start of the Great Depression.</p><p>For now, though, the big investor worry is that the central bank, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, could tip the economy into a recession as it aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. The stock market tends to hit bottom about five months before a recession ends, and we won’t know that we’re officially in a recession until it’s already under way. The National Bureau of Economic Research typically calls a recession, retroactively, around the time that stocks hit their trough, so that call serves as a kind of contrarian buy signal, Stovall said.</p><p>It can be hard to sit on your hands amid market volatility, so if you feel the need to do something, consider making a stock wish list, Stovall said. Income-focused retirees should think more like landlords than traders, he said. In other words, you want to own companies that can pay the rent (dividends, in this analogy) on time and can weather increases in rent. Dividend payers that CFRA analysts like in this environment include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">Advance Auto Parts</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OMC\">Omnicom Group</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RL\">Ralph Lauren</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITB\">Fifth Third Bancorp</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>.</p><p>Pulling your money from stocks might make you feel safe in the short term. Problem is, you’re unlikely to get back into the market in time. Over a 20-year period, missing the 10 best days results in annualized returns that are roughly half of what you would have gotten had you stayed invested and not tried to time the market, according to research from J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Investors might be surprised to learn that during this period, the market’s best days tend to fall within two weeks of its worst days.</p><p>Meanwhile, investors of all ages should take advantage of rising interest rates and put any cash on hand to use. “The only free lunch in finance is the ability to get additional yield without taking on additional risk,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com.</p><p>One way to do that today, he said, is by moving your savings from a big legacy bank that pays around 0.01% in interest to an online bank. Online banks are starting to offer more competitive rates on their high-yield savings accounts. For example, Ally is offering a 0.90% annual percentage yield, and Marcus is offering 0.85%.  Rates will likely continue to rise and may hit 2% by the year, McBride said.</p><p>Lucas Kulma, a financial advisor at Moneta Group in Denver, keeps his retired clients’ immediate spending needs in a high-yield savings account. He keeps money for their intermediate-term needs, between four to eight years’ worth of expenses, in bonds. He constructs bond ladders with municipal bonds in taxable accounts and corporate bonds in tax-deferred accounts, using staggered maturities of as short as six months to take advantage of rising interest rates.</p><p>Kulma also likes Series I savings bonds, which currently yield 9.62%. You can buy up to $10,000 in I bonds during each calendar year (so a couple could buy $20,000). They cannot be cashed within 12 months of purchase without a penalty, and this relative lack of liquidity means they belong in clients’ intermediate-term bond bucket, not in the cash bucket, Kulma said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","BLK":"贝莱德","FITB":"五三银行","OMC":"宏盟集团","AAP":"Advance Auto Parts Inc","RL":"拉夫劳伦"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143820039","content_text":"Will the bear market inflict a bigger bite on retirees than younger investors? Not necessarily, experts say, as the duration of the average bear market is measured in months and retirees who are able to stay the course should be able to recover losses.It takes 14 months on average for stocks to get back to break-even during a “garden-variety” bear market, said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research. If this bear market shapes up like average, then, the S&P 500 would fall 27%, hit a bottom in early October, and then break even by February 2024. Even the deepest of bear markets takes about five years for stocks to get back to break-even, Stovall said.The upshot? “Unless you think it’s going to be 1929 all over again, I’d say stay the course,” Stovall said, referring to the stock market crash in October of that year and the start of the Great Depression.For now, though, the big investor worry is that the central bank, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, could tip the economy into a recession as it aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. The stock market tends to hit bottom about five months before a recession ends, and we won’t know that we’re officially in a recession until it’s already under way. The National Bureau of Economic Research typically calls a recession, retroactively, around the time that stocks hit their trough, so that call serves as a kind of contrarian buy signal, Stovall said.It can be hard to sit on your hands amid market volatility, so if you feel the need to do something, consider making a stock wish list, Stovall said. Income-focused retirees should think more like landlords than traders, he said. In other words, you want to own companies that can pay the rent (dividends, in this analogy) on time and can weather increases in rent. Dividend payers that CFRA analysts like in this environment include Advance Auto Parts, Omnicom Group, Ralph Lauren, BlackRock , Fifth Third Bancorp, and Morgan Stanley.Pulling your money from stocks might make you feel safe in the short term. Problem is, you’re unlikely to get back into the market in time. Over a 20-year period, missing the 10 best days results in annualized returns that are roughly half of what you would have gotten had you stayed invested and not tried to time the market, according to research from J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Investors might be surprised to learn that during this period, the market’s best days tend to fall within two weeks of its worst days.Meanwhile, investors of all ages should take advantage of rising interest rates and put any cash on hand to use. “The only free lunch in finance is the ability to get additional yield without taking on additional risk,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com.One way to do that today, he said, is by moving your savings from a big legacy bank that pays around 0.01% in interest to an online bank. Online banks are starting to offer more competitive rates on their high-yield savings accounts. For example, Ally is offering a 0.90% annual percentage yield, and Marcus is offering 0.85%.  Rates will likely continue to rise and may hit 2% by the year, McBride said.Lucas Kulma, a financial advisor at Moneta Group in Denver, keeps his retired clients’ immediate spending needs in a high-yield savings account. He keeps money for their intermediate-term needs, between four to eight years’ worth of expenses, in bonds. He constructs bond ladders with municipal bonds in taxable accounts and corporate bonds in tax-deferred accounts, using staggered maturities of as short as six months to take advantage of rising interest rates.Kulma also likes Series I savings bonds, which currently yield 9.62%. You can buy up to $10,000 in I bonds during each calendar year (so a couple could buy $20,000). They cannot be cashed within 12 months of purchase without a penalty, and this relative lack of liquidity means they belong in clients’ intermediate-term bond bucket, not in the cash bucket, Kulma said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042506894,"gmtCreate":1656491497518,"gmtModify":1676535839891,"author":{"id":"3564133039702293","authorId":"3564133039702293","name":"benjaminlkw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d2864ce5ceda6f4be6a6ef2e1ab58d8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564133039702293","authorIdStr":"3564133039702293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow thanks . Let me add more shares&nbsp;","listText":"Wow thanks . Let me add more shares&nbsp;","text":"Wow thanks . Let me add more shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042506894","repostId":"1163422349","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163422349","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656489641,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163422349?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 16:00","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163422349","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a be","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ad9cf137cde94182f3c6b415d3f4ae\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"820\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nio Shares Slipped 6% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style 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16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ad9cf137cde94182f3c6b415d3f4ae\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"820\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163422349","content_text":"Nio shares slipped 6% in premarket trading.Short-seller Grizzly Research on Wednesday published a bearish report on Nio, alleging the EV maker was inflating its revenue and profitability. Nio told CnEVPost that the report was full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069356474,"gmtCreate":1651240356044,"gmtModify":1676534876379,"author":{"id":"3564133039702293","authorId":"3564133039702293","name":"benjaminlkw","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d2864ce5ceda6f4be6a6ef2e1ab58d8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564133039702293","authorIdStr":"3564133039702293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069356474","repostId":"1193567310","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193567310","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings 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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese ADRs Soared in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Soared in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-29 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot chinese ADRs soared in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, Bilibili, DiDi, Nio, Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 5% and 16%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a85abe81764a8151bad930b1cd740d\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","BABA":"阿里巴巴","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","NIO":"蔚来","IQ":"爱奇艺","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BIDU":"百度","LI":"理想汽车","JD":"京东","NTES":"网易","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193567310","content_text":"Hot chinese ADRs soared in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, Bilibili, DiDi, Nio, Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 5% and 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