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被幸福敲了门的人

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被幸福敲了门的人

2022-08-19

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2023-02-26

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2023-02-09

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2023-02-07

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2023-02-07

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Pre-market changes | ChatGPT concept stocks in U.S. stocks soar! Faraday Future jumps more than 30%

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2023-01-26

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Full Speech | Elon Musk Announces Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan

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2023-01-23

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Fed Pace Slowing? A number of officials have expressed their support for a rate hike of 25 basis points next month

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2023-01-18

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2023-01-12

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US CPI strikes tonight, inflection point approaching? How long can the Fed be hard-mouthed

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2023-01-09

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@期权小班长:特斯拉會跌到哪兒？一些大單線索(2)

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Skyrocketing 30%!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338118035","media":"芯榜","summary":"【全世界都在疯抢AI芯片！英伟达发布财报后暴拉近30% 将创历史新高】英伟达一季度营收71.9亿美元，分析师预期65.2亿美元；预计第二季度营收110亿美元上下浮动2%，分析师预期71.8亿美元；一季","content":"<p><html><body><article>[The whole world is crazy to grab AI chips!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>After the release of the financial report, a storm of nearly 30% will hit a record high] Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter was $7.19 billion, and analysts expected $6.52 billion; It is expected that second-quarter revenue of $11 billion will fluctuate 2%, compared with analysts' expectations of $7.18 billion; First quarter adjusted<span>Earnings per share</span>at $1.09 vs. analysts' expectations of $0.92; Game revenue in the first quarter was $2.24 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $1.98 billion; Data center revenue in the first quarter was $4.28 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $3.91 billion. Gross profit margin in the first quarter was 66.8%, compared with analysts' expectations of 66.6%.<strong>Nvidia stock shot up nearly 30% after hours at one point</strong>。</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OlpopgnWayG4e3z9UgEMBcBtEoykGcgOJzsgcrlsGaYWgAA/0\"/>The company reported its first-quarter 2024 financial report, with revenue of US$7.19 billion, up 19% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations (Bloomberg consensus, same later) by 10%, data center revenue of US$4.38 billion, exceeding expectations by 10%, gaming revenue of US$2.24 billion, exceeding expectations by 13%, professional graphics revenue of US$300 million, OEM revenue of US$77 million, and autonomous driving revenue of US$300 million. The company guided second-quarter revenue of $11 billion (+ -2%), which greatly exceeded market consensus estimates ($7.2 billion).</p><p>The gross profit margin was 66.8%, basically consistent with the market consensus expectation, and the adjusted profit margin was 37.8%, exceeding the market consensus expectation (34%).</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OD8-iG8kVhAxBk0Sr3LMIqd73SW8sZBALgkpF5A6J4kyMAA/0\"/>The company said that the data centers in the trillion-dollar market will rapidly shift from general purpose to AI purpose, and enterprises are competing to apply generative AI to all products, services and business processes. The company's H100, Grace CPU, Grace Hopper, NvLink, Quantum 400 Infiniband and BlueField 3 DPU are all in production, and the company will greatly increase the supply to meet the demand. And it is expected that the production capacity supply in the second half of the year will continue to increase compared with the first half of the year.</p><p>The boom of artificial intelligence (AI) is stronger than Wall Street expected. Nvidia, the underlying computing power leader and chip giant of AI, was supported by AI chip-related businesses in the past quarter, and its total revenue was significantly higher than expected. The revenue guidance for this quarter was much higher than market expectations.</p><p>NVIDIA shares, which closed down about 0.5% after earnings, were quick after hours on Wednesday<span>pull up</span>, after-hours gains have since exceeded 20%.</p><p>During the results call, Nvidia told analysts that numerous cloud companies are competing to deploy AI chips. Demand for graphics processing unit (GPU) terminals for personal computers (PCs) was \"solid\" in the first quarter. The growth is coming from the data center business. The company has locked in a significant increase in data center chips and plans to significantly increase supply in the second half of the year.</p><p>During the results call, Nvidia shares moved further upward, once rising to an all-time high above $390, with an after-hours gain of more than 28% and nearly 30%.</p><p>As a one-stop solution provider, Nvidia provides GPUs that can help AI products train a large number of texts, images and videos, and masters the \"life gate\" of supplying computing power in the AI large model competition, thus becoming a big winner in this year's AI concept boom. Shares have more than doubled since the beginning of the year as of Wednesday's close.</p><p>Year-over-year revenue decline in the first quarter was almost half of market expectations and the decline in the fourth quarter</p><p>After the U.S. stock market closed on Wednesday, May 24, Eastern Time, Nvidia announced that in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2024 (hereinafter referred to as the first quarter) ended April 30, 2023,<span>OPERATING INCOME</span>Although it continued to decline by double digits year-over-year, the decline was much lower than market expectations, significantly moderating from the decline in the previous quarter, and earnings per share (EPS) also slowed down significantly:</p><p>Operating income in the first quarter was $7.192 billion, higher than the company's guidance range of $6.37 billion to $6.63 billion, down 13% year-on-year from the first quarter of last year. Analysts expect a year-on-year decline of 21.5% to $6.52 billion, and a year-on-year decline of 21% in the previous quarter, the fourth fiscal quarter.</p><p>Adjusted EPS on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter was $1.09, down 20% year-over-year, and analysts were expecting a 32.4% year-over-year decline to $0.92, compared with a 33% year-over-year decline in the previous quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, the adjusted gross profit margin under the non-GAAP caliber was 66.8%, in line with the company's guidance of 66.5% (up and down 50 basis points), slightly higher than the 66.6% expected by analysts, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points over the first quarter of last year and an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the fourth quarter.</p><p>The revenue of data center business where AI chips are located reached a record high, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%</p><p>In terms of business, Nvidia's two core businesses-the revenue of data centers and games, and the revenue of data center business including AI graphics cards reached a record high. Although the game business continued to be hit by the economic downturn, with a double-digit decline in revenue, it was significantly higher than market expectations, and the revenue of data centers both soared by double digits month-on-month.</p><p>Data center revenue was $4.28 billion in the first quarter, up 14% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter, about 9.5% higher than analysts' expectation of $3.91 billion, and up 11% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, game revenue was USD 2.24 billion, down 38% year-on-year, up 22% quarter-on-quarter, 13.1% higher than analysts' expected revenue of USD 1.98 billion, and down 46% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.</p><p>According to Nvidia, the surge in data center revenue is mainly due to the growing demand for generative AI and large language models using GPUs based on Hopper and Ampere architectures. The decline in gaming business was due to weak demand caused by slowing macroeconomic growth and the normalization of channel inventory.<span>shipment</span>Drop.</p><p>In addition, Nvidia's revenue from its professional visualization business fell 53% year-over-year to $295 million in the first quarter, topping analysts' expectations of $246.6 million and increasing 31% quarter-over-quarter. Nvidia believes that the year-on-year decline of this business reflects the impact of channel destocking, and the month-on-month growth is driven by the growth of demand for desktop and mobile workstation GPUs.</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oppcvws8qtK3oWamt8w2mjpNipzOsPJzc5dtAxdl2voi0AA/0\"/>Revenue guidance for the second quarter rose instead of falling, surging 33% year-on-year</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nvidia expects that the revenue in the second fiscal quarter of this fiscal year, that is, the second quarter, will be US$11 billion, with a plus or minus floating of 2%, equivalent to the guidance range of US$10.78 billion to US$11.22 billion. This means that the second quarter will reverse the momentum of three consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline in revenue.</p><p>At $11 billion, Nvidia expects second-quarter revenue to grow by about 32.7% year-over-year, 53.2% higher than analysts' expectations. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue to be only $7.18 billion, down 13.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Nvidia also expects the adjusted gross profit margin on a non-GAAP basis in the second quarter to be 70%, up or down 50 basis points, or 69.5% to 70.5%, higher than analysts' expectations of 66.9%; Operating expenses in the second quarter are expected to be $1.9 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $1.82 billion.</p><p>Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, mentioned the broad prospects of AI applications when releasing the financial report, saying that the computer industry is undergoing two transformations at the same time-accelerated computing and generative AI. Enterprises are competing to apply generative AI to various products, services and business processes, and the installed data centers of trillion dollars around the world will change from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing.</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA Epic Earnings! Skyrocketing 30%!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA Epic Earnings! Skyrocketing 30%!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">芯榜</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-25 23:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>[The whole world is crazy to grab AI chips!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>After the release of the financial report, a storm of nearly 30% will hit a record high] Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter was $7.19 billion, and analysts expected $6.52 billion; It is expected that second-quarter revenue of $11 billion will fluctuate 2%, compared with analysts' expectations of $7.18 billion; First quarter adjusted<span>Earnings per share</span>at $1.09 vs. analysts' expectations of $0.92; Game revenue in the first quarter was $2.24 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $1.98 billion; Data center revenue in the first quarter was $4.28 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $3.91 billion. Gross profit margin in the first quarter was 66.8%, compared with analysts' expectations of 66.6%.<strong>Nvidia stock shot up nearly 30% after hours at one point</strong>。</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OlpopgnWayG4e3z9UgEMBcBtEoykGcgOJzsgcrlsGaYWgAA/0\"/>The company reported its first-quarter 2024 financial report, with revenue of US$7.19 billion, up 19% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations (Bloomberg consensus, same later) by 10%, data center revenue of US$4.38 billion, exceeding expectations by 10%, gaming revenue of US$2.24 billion, exceeding expectations by 13%, professional graphics revenue of US$300 million, OEM revenue of US$77 million, and autonomous driving revenue of US$300 million. The company guided second-quarter revenue of $11 billion (+ -2%), which greatly exceeded market consensus estimates ($7.2 billion).</p><p>The gross profit margin was 66.8%, basically consistent with the market consensus expectation, and the adjusted profit margin was 37.8%, exceeding the market consensus expectation (34%).</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OD8-iG8kVhAxBk0Sr3LMIqd73SW8sZBALgkpF5A6J4kyMAA/0\"/>The company said that the data centers in the trillion-dollar market will rapidly shift from general purpose to AI purpose, and enterprises are competing to apply generative AI to all products, services and business processes. The company's H100, Grace CPU, Grace Hopper, NvLink, Quantum 400 Infiniband and BlueField 3 DPU are all in production, and the company will greatly increase the supply to meet the demand. And it is expected that the production capacity supply in the second half of the year will continue to increase compared with the first half of the year.</p><p>The boom of artificial intelligence (AI) is stronger than Wall Street expected. Nvidia, the underlying computing power leader and chip giant of AI, was supported by AI chip-related businesses in the past quarter, and its total revenue was significantly higher than expected. The revenue guidance for this quarter was much higher than market expectations.</p><p>NVIDIA shares, which closed down about 0.5% after earnings, were quick after hours on Wednesday<span>pull up</span>, after-hours gains have since exceeded 20%.</p><p>During the results call, Nvidia told analysts that numerous cloud companies are competing to deploy AI chips. Demand for graphics processing unit (GPU) terminals for personal computers (PCs) was \"solid\" in the first quarter. The growth is coming from the data center business. The company has locked in a significant increase in data center chips and plans to significantly increase supply in the second half of the year.</p><p>During the results call, Nvidia shares moved further upward, once rising to an all-time high above $390, with an after-hours gain of more than 28% and nearly 30%.</p><p>As a one-stop solution provider, Nvidia provides GPUs that can help AI products train a large number of texts, images and videos, and masters the \"life gate\" of supplying computing power in the AI large model competition, thus becoming a big winner in this year's AI concept boom. Shares have more than doubled since the beginning of the year as of Wednesday's close.</p><p>Year-over-year revenue decline in the first quarter was almost half of market expectations and the decline in the fourth quarter</p><p>After the U.S. stock market closed on Wednesday, May 24, Eastern Time, Nvidia announced that in the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2024 (hereinafter referred to as the first quarter) ended April 30, 2023,<span>OPERATING INCOME</span>Although it continued to decline by double digits year-over-year, the decline was much lower than market expectations, significantly moderating from the decline in the previous quarter, and earnings per share (EPS) also slowed down significantly:</p><p>Operating income in the first quarter was $7.192 billion, higher than the company's guidance range of $6.37 billion to $6.63 billion, down 13% year-on-year from the first quarter of last year. Analysts expect a year-on-year decline of 21.5% to $6.52 billion, and a year-on-year decline of 21% in the previous quarter, the fourth fiscal quarter.</p><p>Adjusted EPS on a non-GAAP basis for the first quarter was $1.09, down 20% year-over-year, and analysts were expecting a 32.4% year-over-year decline to $0.92, compared with a 33% year-over-year decline in the previous quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, the adjusted gross profit margin under the non-GAAP caliber was 66.8%, in line with the company's guidance of 66.5% (up and down 50 basis points), slightly higher than the 66.6% expected by analysts, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points over the first quarter of last year and an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the fourth quarter.</p><p>The revenue of data center business where AI chips are located reached a record high, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%</p><p>In terms of business, Nvidia's two core businesses-the revenue of data centers and games, and the revenue of data center business including AI graphics cards reached a record high. Although the game business continued to be hit by the economic downturn, with a double-digit decline in revenue, it was significantly higher than market expectations, and the revenue of data centers both soared by double digits month-on-month.</p><p>Data center revenue was $4.28 billion in the first quarter, up 14% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter, about 9.5% higher than analysts' expectation of $3.91 billion, and up 11% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, game revenue was USD 2.24 billion, down 38% year-on-year, up 22% quarter-on-quarter, 13.1% higher than analysts' expected revenue of USD 1.98 billion, and down 46% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.</p><p>According to Nvidia, the surge in data center revenue is mainly due to the growing demand for generative AI and large language models using GPUs based on Hopper and Ampere architectures. The decline in gaming business was due to weak demand caused by slowing macroeconomic growth and the normalization of channel inventory.<span>shipment</span>Drop.</p><p>In addition, Nvidia's revenue from its professional visualization business fell 53% year-over-year to $295 million in the first quarter, topping analysts' expectations of $246.6 million and increasing 31% quarter-over-quarter. Nvidia believes that the year-on-year decline of this business reflects the impact of channel destocking, and the month-on-month growth is driven by the growth of demand for desktop and mobile workstation GPUs.</p><p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oppcvws8qtK3oWamt8w2mjpNipzOsPJzc5dtAxdl2voi0AA/0\"/>Revenue guidance for the second quarter rose instead of falling, surging 33% year-on-year</p><p>In terms of performance guidance, Nvidia expects that the revenue in the second fiscal quarter of this fiscal year, that is, the second quarter, will be US$11 billion, with a plus or minus floating of 2%, equivalent to the guidance range of US$10.78 billion to US$11.22 billion. This means that the second quarter will reverse the momentum of three consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline in revenue.</p><p>At $11 billion, Nvidia expects second-quarter revenue to grow by about 32.7% year-over-year, 53.2% higher than analysts' expectations. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue to be only $7.18 billion, down 13.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Nvidia also expects the adjusted gross profit margin on a non-GAAP basis in the second quarter to be 70%, up or down 50 basis points, or 69.5% to 70.5%, higher than analysts' expectations of 66.9%; Operating expenses in the second quarter are expected to be $1.9 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $1.82 billion.</p><p>Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, mentioned the broad prospects of AI applications when releasing the financial report, saying that the computer industry is undergoing two transformations at the same time-accelerated computing and generative AI. Enterprises are competing to apply generative AI to various products, services and business processes, and the installed data centers of trillion dollars around the world will change from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing.</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023052600014583d8400b&s=b\">芯榜</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023052600014583d8400b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2338118035","content_text":"【全世界都在疯抢AI芯片！英伟达发布财报后暴拉近30% 将创历史新高】英伟达一季度营收71.9亿美元，分析师预期65.2亿美元；预计第二季度营收110亿美元上下浮动2%，分析师预期71.8亿美元；一季度调整后每股收益为1.09美元，分析师预期0.92美元；一季度游戏营收22.4亿美元，分析师预期19.8亿美元；一季度数据中心营收42.8亿美元，分析师预期39.1亿美元。一季度毛利润率66.8%，分析师预期66.6%。英伟达股价盘后一度暴涨近30%。公司公布2024年一季度财报，收入71.9亿美元，环比上升19%，超预期（彭博一致预期，后同）10%，数据中心收入43.8亿美元，超预期10%，游戏收入22.4亿美元，超预期13%，专业图形收入3亿美元，OEM收入7700万美元，自动驾驶收入3亿美元。公司指引二季度收入110亿美元（+-2%），大超市场一致预期（72亿美元）。毛利率66.8%，和市场一致预期基本一致，调整后利润率37.8%，超市场一致预期（34%）。公司表示万亿美元市场的数据中心将从通用用途急剧的转向AI用途，并且企业正在竞赛将生成式AI应用到所有产品、服务和商业过程，公司的H100、Grace CPU、Grace Hopper、NvLink、Quantum 400 Infiniband、 BlueField 3 DPU均在生产，公司将大幅增加供给以满足需求。并且预期下半年产能供给比上半年继续提升。人工智能（AI）的热潮比华尔街预料的更给力，AI底层算力龙头、芯片巨头英伟达过去一个季度得到AI芯片相关业务支持，总收入明显高于预期，本季度的收入指引远高于市场预期。财报公布后，收跌约0.5%的英伟达股价在周三盘后迅速拉升，盘后涨幅此后超过20%。业绩电话会上，英伟达向分析师表示，众多云公司竞相部署AI芯片。个人电脑（PC）的图形处理单元（GPU）终端需求一季度“稳固”。业绩增长正来自数据中心业务。公司锁定了数据中心芯片的大幅增长，计划下半年大幅增加供应。业绩电话会期间，英伟达股价进一步上行，一度涨至390美元上方的历史最高水平，盘后涨幅超过28%、接近30%。作为一站式解决方案的提供商，英伟达提供可以帮助AI产品训练大量文本、图像和视频的GPU，在AI大模型竞赛中掌握着供应算力的“命门”，由此成为今年AI概念热潮中的一大赢家。截至本周三收盘，股价年初以来累涨一倍以上。一季度营收同比降幅几乎为市场预期和四季度降幅的一半美东时间5月24日周三美股盘后，英伟达公布，在截至公历2023年4月30日的2024财年第一财季（下称一季度），营业收入虽然继续两位数同比下降，但降幅远低于市场预期，较前一季度的降幅明显缓和，每股收益（EPS）也大幅放缓降幅：一季度营业收入为71.92亿美元，高于公司指引区间63.7亿到66.3亿美元，较去年一季度同比下降13%，分析师预计同比下降21.5%至65.2亿美元，前一季度、即第四财季同比下降21%。一季度非GAAP口径下调整后EPS为1.09美元，同比下降20%，分析师预期同比下降32.4%至0.92美元，前一季度同比下降33%。一季度非GAAP口径下调整后毛利率为66.8%，符合公司指引66.5%（上下浮动50个基点），略高于分析师预期的66.6%，同比去年一季度下降0.3个百分点，环比四季度升0.7个百分点。AI芯片所在的数据中心业务收入创历史新高 保持10%以上同比增速分业务看，英伟达的两大核心业务——数据中心和游戏的收入，包括AI显卡在内的数据中心业务收入创历史新高。游戏业务虽然继续受经济低迷打击，收入两位数下滑，但明显高于市场预期，和数据中心的收入都环比两位数猛增。一季度数据中心营收为42.8亿美元，同比增长14%，环比增长18%，较分析师预期的39.1亿美元高约9.5%， 四季度同比增长11% 。一季度游戏营收22.4亿美元，同比下降38%，环比增长22%，较分析师预期收入19.8亿美元高13.1%，四季度同比下降46%。英伟达称，数据中心收入激增主要是由于，对使用基于Hopper和Ampere 架构GPU的生成式AI和大语言模型的需求不断增长。游戏业务下滑源于，宏观经济增长放缓造成的需求疲软，以及渠道库存的正常化道指出货下降。此外，英伟达一季度的专业可视化业务收入同比下降53%至2.95亿美元，高于分析师预期的2.466亿美元，环比增长31%。英伟达认为，这块业务的同比下滑反映出渠道去库存影响，环比增长受到台式机和移动工作站GPU的需求增长推动。二季度营收指引不降反增 同比猛增33%业绩指引方面，英伟达预计，本财年第二财季、即二季度，营收为110亿美元，正负浮动2%，相当于指引范围在107.8亿到112.2亿美元之间。这意味着，二季度将扭转收入连续三个季度同比下滑的势头。以110亿美元计算，英伟达预期二季度营收将同比增长约32.7%，较分析师预期高53.2%。分析师预计二季度营收只有71.8亿美元，同比下降13.4%。英伟达还预计，二季度非GAAP口径下的调整后毛利率为70%、上下浮动50个基点，即69.5%至70.5%，高于分析师预期的66.9%；二季度的营业费用料将为19亿美元，分析师预期18.2亿美元。英伟达CEO黄仁勋在发布财报时提到了有关AI应用的广阔前景，称计算机行业正在同时经历两个转变——加速计算和生成式AI，企业竞相将生成式AI应用到各个产品、服务和业务流程中，全球万亿美元规模的已安装数据中心将从通用计算转变到加速计算。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":655989622,"gmtCreate":1685067357568,"gmtModify":1685067357568,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655989622","repostId":"655994967","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":655994967,"gmtCreate":1685024344759,"gmtModify":1685026022186,"author":{"id":"3526437230772528","authorId":"3526437230772528","name":"躺平指数","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd29d75188f905efa27b51b9267f5ff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3526437230772528","idStr":"3526437230772528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"其實市場上有一個共識，就是當下最適合的投資策略就是啞鈴式投資。 啞鈴，顧名思義，只買兩頭，當預期危機來臨時，需要穩固投資，但又必須拿出一部分資金去博取超高收益，因此這個兩頭就是一個超低風險+一個超高風險。 板塊輪動跟個電風扇似的輪了一波又一波，突然都停下了，也就是這兩天我們所看到的無差別下跌。但邏輯沒變，對應到我們的操作上，就是板塊輪動需要風投倉位，而低風險比如“中特估”需要穩固倉位。 關於穩固倉位和風投倉位，大家可以有自己的理解，這裏我說一下我自己的操作：目前，美股接連創短期新高，英偉達更是在一季報發佈後盤後直接來了24cm漲幅，今晚美股開盤，納指高開，半導體、AI概念普漲。而角落裏的中概股早已被外資打入冷宮，相當於ST了。 但我想說的是，中概股並非沒有機會，穩固和風投倉位可以分配在美股和中概之間，至於比例你們自己看着辦。當然港股A股也不是不可以。重要的是倉位配置是負相關的，且穩固倉位具有高度確定性的現金流。 以中概爲例，你必須選擇受益於當下經濟形勢和受損於當下經濟形勢的。這屬於子倉位內的資產配置。一正一負，正好抵消了一部分/大部分風險。 比如唯品會和阿里巴巴。唯品會這個標的盤子比較小，跟京東和阿里巴巴的差異性越發明顯，在中概中可以作爲穩固倉位存在，在大的配置框架作爲風投倉位存在。雖然風投倉位的意思是哪怕全部損失掉也接受，但唯品會屬於既低估又確定性高的那種（人也開始回購了何況）。 當然，也可以選擇一開始中特估和半導體/AI的組合，任意你認爲的組合，只要符合條件。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">$唯品會(VIPS)$ </a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$ </a>","listText":"其實市場上有一個共識，就是當下最適合的投資策略就是啞鈴式投資。 啞鈴，顧名思義，只買兩頭，當預期危機來臨時，需要穩固投資，但又必須拿出一部分資金去博取超高收益，因此這個兩頭就是一個超低風險+一個超高風險。 板塊輪動跟個電風扇似的輪了一波又一波，突然都停下了，也就是這兩天我們所看到的無差別下跌。但邏輯沒變，對應到我們的操作上，就是板塊輪動需要風投倉位，而低風險比如“中特估”需要穩固倉位。 關於穩固倉位和風投倉位，大家可以有自己的理解，這裏我說一下我自己的操作：目前，美股接連創短期新高，英偉達更是在一季報發佈後盤後直接來了24cm漲幅，今晚美股開盤，納指高開，半導體、AI概念普漲。而角落裏的中概股早已被外資打入冷宮，相當於ST了。 但我想說的是，中概股並非沒有機會，穩固和風投倉位可以分配在美股和中概之間，至於比例你們自己看着辦。當然港股A股也不是不可以。重要的是倉位配置是負相關的，且穩固倉位具有高度確定性的現金流。 以中概爲例，你必須選擇受益於當下經濟形勢和受損於當下經濟形勢的。這屬於子倉位內的資產配置。一正一負，正好抵消了一部分/大部分風險。 比如唯品會和阿里巴巴。唯品會這個標的盤子比較小，跟京東和阿里巴巴的差異性越發明顯，在中概中可以作爲穩固倉位存在，在大的配置框架作爲風投倉位存在。雖然風投倉位的意思是哪怕全部損失掉也接受，但唯品會屬於既低估又確定性高的那種（人也開始回購了何況）。 當然，也可以選擇一開始中特估和半導體/AI的組合，任意你認爲的組合，只要符合條件。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">$唯品會(VIPS)$ </a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$ </a>","text":"其實市場上有一個共識，就是當下最適合的投資策略就是啞鈴式投資。 啞鈴，顧名思義，只買兩頭，當預期危機來臨時，需要穩固投資，但又必須拿出一部分資金去博取超高收益，因此這個兩頭就是一個超低風險+一個超高風險。 板塊輪動跟個電風扇似的輪了一波又一波，突然都停下了，也就是這兩天我們所看到的無差別下跌。但邏輯沒變，對應到我們的操作上，就是板塊輪動需要風投倉位，而低風險比如“中特估”需要穩固倉位。 關於穩固倉位和風投倉位，大家可以有自己的理解，這裏我說一下我自己的操作：目前，美股接連創短期新高，英偉達更是在一季報發佈後盤後直接來了24cm漲幅，今晚美股開盤，納指高開，半導體、AI概念普漲。而角落裏的中概股早已被外資打入冷宮，相當於ST了。 但我想說的是，中概股並非沒有機會，穩固和風投倉位可以分配在美股和中概之間，至於比例你們自己看着辦。當然港股A股也不是不可以。重要的是倉位配置是負相關的，且穩固倉位具有高度確定性的現金流。 以中概爲例，你必須選擇受益於當下經濟形勢和受損於當下經濟形勢的。這屬於子倉位內的資產配置。一正一負，正好抵消了一部分/大部分風險。 比如唯品會和阿里巴巴。唯品會這個標的盤子比較小，跟京東和阿里巴巴的差異性越發明顯，在中概中可以作爲穩固倉位存在，在大的配置框架作爲風投倉位存在。雖然風投倉位的意思是哪怕全部損失掉也接受，但唯品會屬於既低估又確定性高的那種（人也開始回購了何況）。 當然，也可以選擇一開始中特估和半導體/AI的組合，任意你認爲的組合，只要符合條件。$唯品會(VIPS)$ $英偉達(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655994967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":655989186,"gmtCreate":1685067324747,"gmtModify":1685067324747,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655989186","repostId":"2338148982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2338148982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1685049300,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2338148982?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 05:15","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338148982","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"DJ Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day\n\n\n  This article was auto","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nDJ Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day\n</p>\n<p>\n  This article was automatically generated by MarketWatch using technology from Automated Insights. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR (7974.TO) dropped 0.47% to $10.52 Thursday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index  rising 1.71% to 12,698.09 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  falling 0.11% to 32,764.65. \n</p>\n<p>\n  This was the ADR's third consecutive day of losses. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR closed $0.88 short of its 52-week high ($11.40), which the company achieved on May 26th. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The ADR demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Thursday, as Hasbro Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">$(HAS)$</a> fell 1.32% to $59.72, Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. ADR (6460.TO) rose 0.61% to $4.93, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two Interactive Software</a> Inc. (TTWO) rose 0.66% to $136.73. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Trading volume (1.3 M) remained 120,210 below its 50-day average volume of 1.4 M. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Data source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet. Data compiled May 25, 2023. \n</p>\n<p>\n  This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  May 25, 2023 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-26 05:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nDJ Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day\n</p>\n<p>\n  This article was automatically generated by MarketWatch using technology from Automated Insights. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR (7974.TO) dropped 0.47% to $10.52 Thursday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index  rising 1.71% to 12,698.09 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  falling 0.11% to 32,764.65. \n</p>\n<p>\n  This was the ADR's third consecutive day of losses. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR closed $0.88 short of its 52-week high ($11.40), which the company achieved on May 26th. \n</p>\n<p>\n  The ADR demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Thursday, as Hasbro Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HAS\">$(HAS)$</a> fell 1.32% to $59.72, Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. ADR (6460.TO) rose 0.61% to $4.93, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two Interactive Software</a> Inc. (TTWO) rose 0.66% to $136.73. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Trading volume (1.3 M) remained 120,210 below its 50-day average volume of 1.4 M. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Data source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet. Data compiled May 25, 2023. \n</p>\n<p>\n  This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  May 25, 2023 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK4190":"消闲用品","BK4588":"碎股","HAS":"孩之宝","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","HAS.AU":"Hastings Rare Metals Ltd","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","TTWO":"Take-Two Interactive Software","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","NTDOY":"任天堂","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2338148982","content_text":"DJ Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR Outperforms Competitors Despite Losses On The Day\n\n\n  This article was automatically generated by MarketWatch using technology from Automated Insights. \n\n\n  The Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR (7974.TO) dropped 0.47% to $10.52 Thursday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index  rising 1.71% to 12,698.09 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average  falling 0.11% to 32,764.65. \n\n\n  This was the ADR's third consecutive day of losses. \n\n\n  Nintendo Co. Ltd. ADR closed $0.88 short of its 52-week high ($11.40), which the company achieved on May 26th. \n\n\n  The ADR demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Thursday, as Hasbro Inc. $(HAS)$ fell 1.32% to $59.72, Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. ADR (6460.TO) rose 0.61% to $4.93, and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) rose 0.66% to $136.73. \n\n\n  Trading volume (1.3 M) remained 120,210 below its 50-day average volume of 1.4 M. \n\n\n  Data source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet. Data compiled May 25, 2023. \n\n\n  This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  May 25, 2023 17:15 ET (21:15 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TTWO":1,"NTDOY":1,"HAS.AU":1,"HAS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":655989343,"gmtCreate":1685067279284,"gmtModify":1685067279284,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655989343","repostId":"2338119002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2338119002","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1685040533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2338119002?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 02:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gold companies are still keen on mergers and acquisitions at a time when gold prices are at historically high levels. On May 25th, Shandong Gold announced that Jinshun Mining, a holding subsidiary of the company, won Daqiao Gold for 866 million yuan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338119002","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在金价处于历史高位之际，黄金企业仍热衷于并购。5月25日，山东黄金公告称，公司控股子公司金舜矿业以8.66亿元竞得大桥金矿采矿权。紫金矿业首席行业研究员黄孚认为，全球黄金矿企的内生增长已经非常困难，对","content":"<p><html><body>Gold companies are still keen on mergers and acquisitions at a time when gold prices are at historically high levels. On May 25th, Shandong Gold announced that Jinshun Mining, a holding subsidiary of the company, won the mining right of Daqiao Gold Mine for 866 million yuan. Huang Fu, chief industry researcher of Zijin Mining, believes that the endogenous growth of global gold mining enterprises has been very difficult, and external mergers and acquisitions just reflect the desire of global gold giants for output. \"Under the current situation, mergers and acquisitions among gold mining enterprises will be more frequent, and the comprehensive strength of enterprises is closely related to their mergers and acquisitions and anti-mergers and acquisitions capabilities.\" Although the price of gold is currently at a high level, when the cost of exploration and development continues to rise, external mergers and acquisitions will be an inevitable option for gold giants to seek growth. In the future, mergers and acquisitions in the industry will continue, and high-quality gold mineral resources will continue to be concentrated in head enterprises. (Securities Daily)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold companies are still keen on mergers and acquisitions at a time when gold prices are at historically high levels. On May 25th, Shandong Gold announced that Jinshun Mining, a holding subsidiary of the company, won Daqiao Gold for 866 million yuan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold companies are still keen on mergers and acquisitions at a time when gold prices are at historically high levels. On May 25th, Shandong Gold announced that Jinshun Mining, a holding subsidiary of the company, won Daqiao Gold for 866 million yuan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-26 02:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Gold companies are still keen on mergers and acquisitions at a time when gold prices are at historically high levels. On May 25th, Shandong Gold announced that Jinshun Mining, a holding subsidiary of the company, won the mining right of Daqiao Gold Mine for 866 million yuan. Huang Fu, chief industry researcher of Zijin Mining, believes that the endogenous growth of global gold mining enterprises has been very difficult, and external mergers and acquisitions just reflect the desire of global gold giants for output. \"Under the current situation, mergers and acquisitions among gold mining enterprises will be more frequent, and the comprehensive strength of enterprises is closely related to their mergers and acquisitions and anti-mergers and acquisitions capabilities.\" Although the price of gold is currently at a high level, when the cost of exploration and development continues to rise, external mergers and acquisitions will be an inevitable option for gold giants to seek growth. In the future, mergers and acquisitions in the industry will continue, and high-quality gold mineral resources will continue to be concentrated in head enterprises. (Securities Daily)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/live/a-stock\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","600547":"山东黄金","601899":"紫金矿业","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","02899":"紫金矿业","BK1592":"有色金属","BK0242":"有色金属","BK0070":"员工持股","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK0196":"行业龙头","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","01787":"山东黄金","BK1544":"黄金股","BK0127":"黄金珠宝","BK1505":"一带一路","BK1198":"黄金","BK0183":"MSCI概念","BK0188":"融资融券","BK0012":"证金概念","BK0077":"质押式回购","BK0009":"债转股","BK0187":"一线龙头","BK0015":"沪股通50","LU0140636845.USD":"施罗德大中华区股票A Acc","BK0028":"国家队","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/live/a-stock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"2338119002","content_text":"在金价处于历史高位之际，黄金企业仍热衷于并购。5月25日，山东黄金公告称，公司控股子公司金舜矿业以8.66亿元竞得大桥金矿采矿权。紫金矿业首席行业研究员黄孚认为，全球黄金矿企的内生增长已经非常困难，对外并购恰恰反映了全球黄金巨头对于产量的渴望。“当前形势下，黄金矿企间的并购整合将更加频繁，而企业的综合实力与其并购和反并购能力息息相关。”尽管金价目前处于高位，但当勘探、开发成本持续走高，向外并购将是黄金巨头寻求增长的必然选项，未来行业的并购还将持续，优质黄金矿产资源将继续向头部企业集中。（证券日报）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"600547":1,"601899":1,"DUST":0.6,"01787":1,"02899":1,"IAU":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"GCmain":1,"MGCmain":1,"SGCmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":655989916,"gmtCreate":1685067236036,"gmtModify":1685067236036,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655989916","repostId":"2338148415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2338148415","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1685050412,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2338148415?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-26 05:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Biden says negotiations have been productive and will reach an agreement on debt ceiling and budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2338148415","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、拜登称谈判有成效 将就债务上限和预算达成协议       2、美国共和党谈判代表服软 不再坚持要求大幅增加国防开支       3、“借来的”时间不多","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</strong></p><p><strong>1. Biden says negotiations are effective and an agreement on debt ceiling and budget will be reached</strong><strong></strong><strong>2. U.S. Republican negotiators submit to insisting on a substantial increase in defense spending</strong><strong></strong><strong>3. The \"borrowed\" time is running out. The cash balance of the U.S. Treasury Department fell below $50 billion</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>4. The yen fell below 140 yen per dollar, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike bet pushed up the yield of U.S. bonds</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>: The key to whether the United States can keep its AAA rating is June 15</strong><strong></strong><strong>6. For fear of missing the US stock market, Wall Street banks began to reflect on their pessimistic predictions</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd828f5434c2c8ca63d1f67bb3e7b37\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Biden says negotiations are productive to reach agreement on debt ceiling and budget</strong></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said talks on the debt ceiling and spending were productive and that the two sides would reach an agreement.</p><p>Speaking at the White House, Biden said he proposed a two-year spending freeze.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c2b5b99fbabed7404f739fd33bca89\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>GOP negotiators give in from insisting on massive defense spending increases</strong></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the debt ceiling negotiators of the U.S. Republican Party have shelved the demand for a substantial increase in defense spending and gradually begun to accept the proposal in Biden's budget for only a small increase in defense spending.</p><p>The narrowing of the differences on defense spending represents a major victory for Democrats. Biden's defense budget spending for next year is $886.3 billion, 3.3 percent higher than it is now, and Republicans have been hoping to raise that figure even further.</p><p>The Pentagon will receive $842 billion in grants, according to unnamed sources familiar with the matter. People familiar with the matter asked not to be identified because no final agreement has been reached.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d0635f85da920d215d980d0115a165\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Time is running out for \"borrowed\" U.S. Treasury cash balance falls below $50 billion</strong></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's cash balance fell to its lowest level since 2021, and the federal government could run out of money early next month if the debt ceiling is not lifted or raised in time.</p><p>The Treasury cash balance fell to $49.5 billion Wednesday, down from $76.5 billion the day before and $140 billion on May 12, according to Thursday's data. The Treasury's cash balance has been under downward pressure recently as a result of a series of measures to avoid hitting the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Wednesday recorded its biggest one-day drop since May 15.</p><p>Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities, said, \"This just shows how close we are to the cliff now. Although some people in Congress question the math of the Treasury Department, I think the cash balance is already telling. We are really coming to the cliff soon. Frankly speaking, the time is borrowed now\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4448164c91156d97f836fa5213c71675\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Yen drops below 140 yen per dollar, Fed's rate hike bets boost U.S. bond yields</strong></p><p>The yen fell below 140 yen per dollar for the first time since November, as demand for the yen was hit by divergence between Japanese and U.S. monetary policies.</p><p>At one point, the yen fell 0.4% to 140.01 yen per dollar, its weakest since November.</p><p>Traders on Thursday fully digested expectations of an additional 25 basis points for the next two Fed policy meetings, with a more than one-in-half chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.</p><p>Meanwhile, U.S. yields have risen, and policy-sensitive<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US2Y.BOND\">U.S. 2-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>At one point, it rose nearly 15 basis points to 4.52%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f146ab83fed8cbb0805a7700fdd03445\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>: The key to whether the United States can keep its AAA rating is June 15</strong></p><p>As the federal government draws closer to running out of cash, investors are paying more attention to the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Moody's said that whether the United States can maintain its AAA rating depends on whether it can pay Treasury Bond interest in mid-June.</p><p>On June 15, the U.S. Treasury is required to pay about $2 billion in bond interest. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned last Sunday that the odds of the U.S. government fully paying all its bills on June 15 are fairly low if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling.</p><p>\"This is a very important date for us,\" said William Foster, senior vice president of Moody's. While the amount of interest to be paid is not large, \"missing the payment date is a default. We will downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53faf3dadcae15080583422725f6c7b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p>　　<strong>For fear of missing the US stock market, Wall Street's big banks begin to reflect on their pessimistic forecasts</strong></p><p>Strategists and portfolio managers who once thought the U.S. stock market had no way to go in 2023 have changed their tune because they are now worried about missing out on the underlying market.</p><p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon believes his recent forecast that the S&P 500 will close at nearly 4,200 in December is too low. The benchmark stock index is on track to rise toward 4,600 by year-end as markets digest expectations of a 2024 earnings recovery and investors' FOMO kicks in, the senior portfolio manager said in a phone interview.</p><p>\"If I was a financial advisor and come October, November, I would start to get nervous because I was holding a lot of cash and not making money for my clients,\" he said. \"My guess is that cash will start flowing back into the market later this year.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Biden says negotiations have been productive and will reach an agreement on debt ceiling and budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Biden says negotiations have been productive and will reach an agreement on debt ceiling and budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-26 05:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</strong></p><p><strong>1. Biden says negotiations are effective and an agreement on debt ceiling and budget will be reached</strong><strong></strong><strong>2. U.S. Republican negotiators submit to insisting on a substantial increase in defense spending</strong><strong></strong><strong>3. The \"borrowed\" time is running out. The cash balance of the U.S. Treasury Department fell below $50 billion</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>4. The yen fell below 140 yen per dollar, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike bet pushed up the yield of U.S. bonds</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>: The key to whether the United States can keep its AAA rating is June 15</strong><strong></strong><strong>6. For fear of missing the US stock market, Wall Street banks began to reflect on their pessimistic predictions</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd828f5434c2c8ca63d1f67bb3e7b37\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Biden says negotiations are productive to reach agreement on debt ceiling and budget</strong></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden said talks on the debt ceiling and spending were productive and that the two sides would reach an agreement.</p><p>Speaking at the White House, Biden said he proposed a two-year spending freeze.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c2b5b99fbabed7404f739fd33bca89\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>GOP negotiators give in from insisting on massive defense spending increases</strong></p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the debt ceiling negotiators of the U.S. Republican Party have shelved the demand for a substantial increase in defense spending and gradually begun to accept the proposal in Biden's budget for only a small increase in defense spending.</p><p>The narrowing of the differences on defense spending represents a major victory for Democrats. Biden's defense budget spending for next year is $886.3 billion, 3.3 percent higher than it is now, and Republicans have been hoping to raise that figure even further.</p><p>The Pentagon will receive $842 billion in grants, according to unnamed sources familiar with the matter. People familiar with the matter asked not to be identified because no final agreement has been reached.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d0635f85da920d215d980d0115a165\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Time is running out for \"borrowed\" U.S. Treasury cash balance falls below $50 billion</strong></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's cash balance fell to its lowest level since 2021, and the federal government could run out of money early next month if the debt ceiling is not lifted or raised in time.</p><p>The Treasury cash balance fell to $49.5 billion Wednesday, down from $76.5 billion the day before and $140 billion on May 12, according to Thursday's data. The Treasury's cash balance has been under downward pressure recently as a result of a series of measures to avoid hitting the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Wednesday recorded its biggest one-day drop since May 15.</p><p>Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities, said, \"This just shows how close we are to the cliff now. Although some people in Congress question the math of the Treasury Department, I think the cash balance is already telling. We are really coming to the cliff soon. Frankly speaking, the time is borrowed now\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4448164c91156d97f836fa5213c71675\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Yen drops below 140 yen per dollar, Fed's rate hike bets boost U.S. bond yields</strong></p><p>The yen fell below 140 yen per dollar for the first time since November, as demand for the yen was hit by divergence between Japanese and U.S. monetary policies.</p><p>At one point, the yen fell 0.4% to 140.01 yen per dollar, its weakest since November.</p><p>Traders on Thursday fully digested expectations of an additional 25 basis points for the next two Fed policy meetings, with a more than one-in-half chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.</p><p>Meanwhile, U.S. yields have risen, and policy-sensitive<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US2Y.BOND\">U.S. 2-Year Treasury Bond Yield</a>At one point, it rose nearly 15 basis points to 4.52%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f146ab83fed8cbb0805a7700fdd03445\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>　　<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>: The key to whether the United States can keep its AAA rating is June 15</strong></p><p>As the federal government draws closer to running out of cash, investors are paying more attention to the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Moody's said that whether the United States can maintain its AAA rating depends on whether it can pay Treasury Bond interest in mid-June.</p><p>On June 15, the U.S. Treasury is required to pay about $2 billion in bond interest. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned last Sunday that the odds of the U.S. government fully paying all its bills on June 15 are fairly low if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling.</p><p>\"This is a very important date for us,\" said William Foster, senior vice president of Moody's. While the amount of interest to be paid is not large, \"missing the payment date is a default. We will downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53faf3dadcae15080583422725f6c7b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p>　　<strong>For fear of missing the US stock market, Wall Street's big banks begin to reflect on their pessimistic forecasts</strong></p><p>Strategists and portfolio managers who once thought the U.S. stock market had no way to go in 2023 have changed their tune because they are now worried about missing out on the underlying market.</p><p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Andrew Slimmon believes his recent forecast that the S&P 500 will close at nearly 4,200 in December is too low. The benchmark stock index is on track to rise toward 4,600 by year-end as markets digest expectations of a 2024 earnings recovery and investors' FOMO kicks in, the senior portfolio manager said in a phone interview.</p><p>\"If I was a financial advisor and come October, November, I would start to get nervous because I was holding a lot of cash and not making money for my clients,\" he said. \"My guess is that cash will start flowing back into the market later this year.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-26/doc-imyuzwwn1706765.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d0635f85da920d215d980d0115a165","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-05-26/doc-imyuzwwn1706765.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2338148415","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、拜登称谈判有成效 将就债务上限和预算达成协议       2、美国共和党谈判代表服软 不再坚持要求大幅增加国防开支       3、“借来的”时间不多了 美国财政部现金余额跌破500亿美元   　　4、日元跌破1美元兑140日元 美联储加息押注推升美债收益率   　　5、穆迪：美国能否保住AAA评级关键看6月15日           6、生怕错过美股行情 华尔街大行开始反思自己的悲观预测  　　拜登称谈判有成效 将就债务上限和预算达成协议　　美国总统拜登表示，就债务上限和支出问题进行的谈判富有成效，且双方将达成协议。　　拜登在白宫发表讲话称，他提议冻结支出两年。　　美国共和党谈判代表服软 不再坚持要求大幅增加国防开支　　知情人士透露，美国共和党的债务上限谈判代表搁置了大幅增加国防开支的要求，逐步开始接受拜登预算案中关于仅小幅增加防务开支的提议。　　双方在国防支出方面的分歧缩小代表民主党人一次重大胜利。拜登对明年的国防预算支出是8863亿美元，比现在高出3.3%，而共和党一直希望进一步提高这个数字。　　不具名知情人士透露，五角大楼将收到8420亿美元拨款。 因尚未达成最终协议，知情人士要求匿名。　　“借来的”时间不多了 美国财政部现金余额跌破500亿美元  　　美国财政部现金余额降至2021年以来最低水平，如果不及时取消或提高债务上限，联邦政府可能在下月初资金告罄。　　根据周四的数据，财政部现金余额周三降至495亿美元，低于前一天的765亿美元和5月12日的1400亿美元。由于采取一系列措施避免触及31.4万亿美元债务上限，近期财政部现金余额一直面临下行压力。周三创下5月15日以来单日最大降幅。　　道明证券策略师Gennadiy Goldberg表示，“这恰好说明了我们现在离悬崖有多近，虽然国会一些人质疑财政部的数学，但我觉得现金余额已经很能说明问题，我们真的很快就要到悬崖了。坦白讲，现在的时间是借来的”。　　日元跌破1美元兑140日元 美联储加息押注推升美债收益率  　　日元自去年11月以来首次跌破1美元兑140日元，原因是日本和美国货币政策之间的分化打击了对日元的需求。　　日元一度下跌0.4%，报1美元兑140.01日元，为去年11月以来最弱。　　交易员周四完全消化了美联储未来两次政策会议再加25个基点的预期，最快下月加息的可能性超过二分之一。　　与此同时，美国收益率上升，对政策敏感的美国2年期国债收益率一度上涨近15个基点至4.52%。　　穆迪：美国能否保住AAA评级关键看6月15日  　　随着联邦政府距离耗尽现金的日子越来越近，投资者对美国主权信用评级的关注度上升，穆迪表示，美国能不能维持AAA评级关键要看其能否在6月中旬支付国债利息。　　6月15日，美国财政部需支付约20亿美元的债券利息。财政部长耶伦上周日警告称，如果国会不提高债务上限，6月15日美国政府完全支付所有账单的可能性相当低。　　“这对我们来说是一个非常重要的日子，” 穆迪高级副总裁William Foster表示，虽然需要支付的利息数额不算大，但“如果错过支付日，那就是违约。我们将把美国主权信用评级从AAA下调至AA1”。　　生怕错过美股行情 华尔街大行开始反思自己的悲观预测  　　曾认为美国股市2023年无路可走的策略师和投资组合经理已然改变了调门，因为他们现在担心的是和潜在的行情失之交臂。　　摩根士丹利的Andrew Slimmon认为，自己不久前标普500指数今年12月将收在近4，200点的预测太低了。这位高级投资组合经理在接受电话采访时表示，随着市场消化2024年盈利复苏的预期且投资者FOMO启动，该基准股指年底前有望升向4600点。　　“如果我是财务顾问，到了10月、11月，因为我大量持有现金而没有为我的客户赚到钱，我会开始变得紧张，” 他说，“我的猜测是，现金将在今年晚些时候开始重新流入市场。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":655078770,"gmtCreate":1685011044393,"gmtModify":1685011044393,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655078770","repostId":"655040573","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":655040573,"gmtCreate":1685005423992,"gmtModify":1685005453284,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"21347731130544","idStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"英偉達暴漲，還有哪些低位半導體公司值得埋伏？","htmlText":"英偉達太牛了，預計下一個季度的營收高達110億美元！ 這是什麼概念？這意味着英偉達的季度收入直接突破了歷史記錄！同比增速將高達64%！ &nbsp; 要知道英偉達可是7500億市值的巨頭，如此龐大的身軀還能獲得64%的增長，試問還有哪家巨頭能做到？ 英偉達神話真的是完美闡釋了科技纔是第一生產力！ 關於英偉達財報的解讀文章，我相信大家一定看到很多，我就不贅述了，主要聊聊還能上車哪些低位的半導體標的！ 首選我覺得應該是臺積電。 臺積電是芯片製造廠，目前是世界上工藝最先進的，這意味着無論是最新款的蘋果手機還是英偉達的GPU，都得找臺積電製造。 所以，英偉達下一個季度業績暴增，臺積電是直接受益的！ 當然，最關鍵的是臺積電的業績剛好處於低位，同時股價也沒有大漲、估值也低，考慮到半導體是明顯的週期性，業績下滑是最好的入場時機。 根據臺積電公佈的月度銷售數據，其4月份營收下滑14%，根據2018-2019年半導體下行週期時的股價表現，當臺積電月度收入負增長時，恰好是股價的低點： 至於大家都擔心的地緣政治問題，我只能說中國不可能在最近10年收復臺灣，主要是目前很多關鍵技術，尤其是半導體，都被美國卡脖子，一旦開戰，國內經濟損失巨大，所以，市場擔憂的事情根本不可能發生，一旦半導體進入上升週期，這個利空因素就不會有人再提。 這裏爲巴菲特感到惋惜，剛好賣在了低點，錯失數億收益！ 另一家處於低位的半導體公司是AMD，它也有GPU，雖然實力不如英偉達，但亦會受益AI浪潮！ AMD業績和估值目前同樣處於低位，未來也將追隨英偉達創出歷史新高，相信AMD的主要原因就是因爲AMD有個好CEO——蘇姿豐，此人能將AMD從深淵中解救出來，而且能打敗英特爾，足以說明蘇姿豐的能力毋庸置疑。 之所以AMD沒能在這次AI革命中拔得頭籌，主要是他原來的核心業務是CPU，GPU的業務雖然一直都有，但並不是之前發展的重心。 如","listText":"英偉達太牛了，預計下一個季度的營收高達110億美元！ 這是什麼概念？這意味着英偉達的季度收入直接突破了歷史記錄！同比增速將高達64%！ &nbsp; 要知道英偉達可是7500億市值的巨頭，如此龐大的身軀還能獲得64%的增長，試問還有哪家巨頭能做到？ 英偉達神話真的是完美闡釋了科技纔是第一生產力！ 關於英偉達財報的解讀文章，我相信大家一定看到很多，我就不贅述了，主要聊聊還能上車哪些低位的半導體標的！ 首選我覺得應該是臺積電。 臺積電是芯片製造廠，目前是世界上工藝最先進的，這意味着無論是最新款的蘋果手機還是英偉達的GPU，都得找臺積電製造。 所以，英偉達下一個季度業績暴增，臺積電是直接受益的！ 當然，最關鍵的是臺積電的業績剛好處於低位，同時股價也沒有大漲、估值也低，考慮到半導體是明顯的週期性，業績下滑是最好的入場時機。 根據臺積電公佈的月度銷售數據，其4月份營收下滑14%，根據2018-2019年半導體下行週期時的股價表現，當臺積電月度收入負增長時，恰好是股價的低點： 至於大家都擔心的地緣政治問題，我只能說中國不可能在最近10年收復臺灣，主要是目前很多關鍵技術，尤其是半導體，都被美國卡脖子，一旦開戰，國內經濟損失巨大，所以，市場擔憂的事情根本不可能發生，一旦半導體進入上升週期，這個利空因素就不會有人再提。 這裏爲巴菲特感到惋惜，剛好賣在了低點，錯失數億收益！ 另一家處於低位的半導體公司是AMD，它也有GPU，雖然實力不如英偉達，但亦會受益AI浪潮！ AMD業績和估值目前同樣處於低位，未來也將追隨英偉達創出歷史新高，相信AMD的主要原因就是因爲AMD有個好CEO——蘇姿豐，此人能將AMD從深淵中解救出來，而且能打敗英特爾，足以說明蘇姿豐的能力毋庸置疑。 之所以AMD沒能在這次AI革命中拔得頭籌，主要是他原來的核心業務是CPU，GPU的業務雖然一直都有，但並不是之前發展的重心。 如","text":"英偉達太牛了，預計下一個季度的營收高達110億美元！ 這是什麼概念？這意味着英偉達的季度收入直接突破了歷史記錄！同比增速將高達64%！ 要知道英偉達可是7500億市值的巨頭，如此龐大的身軀還能獲得64%的增長，試問還有哪家巨頭能做到？ 英偉達神話真的是完美闡釋了科技纔是第一生產力！ 關於英偉達財報的解讀文章，我相信大家一定看到很多，我就不贅述了，主要聊聊還能上車哪些低位的半導體標的！ 首選我覺得應該是臺積電。 臺積電是芯片製造廠，目前是世界上工藝最先進的，這意味着無論是最新款的蘋果手機還是英偉達的GPU，都得找臺積電製造。 所以，英偉達下一個季度業績暴增，臺積電是直接受益的！ 當然，最關鍵的是臺積電的業績剛好處於低位，同時股價也沒有大漲、估值也低，考慮到半導體是明顯的週期性，業績下滑是最好的入場時機。 根據臺積電公佈的月度銷售數據，其4月份營收下滑14%，根據2018-2019年半導體下行週期時的股價表現，當臺積電月度收入負增長時，恰好是股價的低點： 至於大家都擔心的地緣政治問題，我只能說中國不可能在最近10年收復臺灣，主要是目前很多關鍵技術，尤其是半導體，都被美國卡脖子，一旦開戰，國內經濟損失巨大，所以，市場擔憂的事情根本不可能發生，一旦半導體進入上升週期，這個利空因素就不會有人再提。 這裏爲巴菲特感到惋惜，剛好賣在了低點，錯失數億收益！ 另一家處於低位的半導體公司是AMD，它也有GPU，雖然實力不如英偉達，但亦會受益AI浪潮！ AMD業績和估值目前同樣處於低位，未來也將追隨英偉達創出歷史新高，相信AMD的主要原因就是因爲AMD有個好CEO——蘇姿豐，此人能將AMD從深淵中解救出來，而且能打敗英特爾，足以說明蘇姿豐的能力毋庸置疑。 之所以AMD沒能在這次AI革命中拔得頭籌，主要是他原來的核心業務是CPU，GPU的業務雖然一直都有，但並不是之前發展的重心。 如","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d9fb6b08468dd0d7d74c72abec826ad","width":"1069","height":"533"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f087794e3a1d88e99fba9305c37f6d6","width":"1319","height":"575"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/157c08e0f9cf5b805b155f433fa12235","width":"1524","height":"652"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/655040573","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652292565,"gmtCreate":1684572005258,"gmtModify":1684572005258,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652292565","repostId":"1125863084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652292260,"gmtCreate":1684571925252,"gmtModify":1684571925252,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652292260","repostId":"1143041736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143041736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684508876,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143041736?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-19 23:07","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Powell: US inflation well above 2% target, may not need to continue rate hike given credit pressures","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143041736","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"虽然强调抗击通胀的必要性，鲍威尔还是发表鸽派信号称，自己倾向于支持6月暂不加息，而且银行业危机导致的信贷条件收紧，可能意味着美联储峰值利率将低于预期：“FOMC尚未就货币政策应进一步收紧多少而作出决定","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Although emphasizing the need to fight inflation, Powell still issued a dovish signal saying that he was inclined to support the temporary absence of rate hike in June, and the tightening of credit conditions caused by the banking crisis may mean that the Fed's peak interest rate will be lower than expected: \"The FOMC has not yet made a decision on how much monetary policy should be further tightened.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Friday, May 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a panel discussion called \"Monetary Policy Perspectives\" in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States.</p><p><h2>POWELL: Open to rate hike suspension in June, warning of banking pressure rippling across the broader economy</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although he still emphasized that \"inflation in the United States is far higher than our 2% target\", if the fight against inflation fails, it will cause long-term pain. He called the FOMC \"strongly committed\" to bringing inflation back to its target 2% commitment, and price stability is the foundation for the economy to remain strong.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>But he went on to send a dovish signal that he was inclined to support the June meeting without rate hike,</strong>And the tightening of credit conditions caused by the banking crisis may mean that the Fed's peak interest rate will be lower than expected:</p><p>\"Given the negative impact credit pressures can have on economic growth, employment and inflation, it may not need to (continue) rate hike to that high level to successfully suppress inflation. The Fed has made strides in tightening monetary policy, and the policy stance is now restrictive on economic growth. The risks of doing too much versus doing too little are becoming more balanced. We face multiple uncertainties such as the lagging effects of tightening policies to date and the extent of credit tightening due to recent banking pressures. Given this, the Fed has the ability to watch more data and how the future outlook evolves before deciding how much interest rate hikes it may need to raise. \"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, Powell also emphasized that there are usually challenges in the accuracy of quarterly economic forecasts, and there are also uncertainties in the views he mentioned above and the extent to which they can be achieved, on the grounds that \"the future prospects are facing historically high uncertainties\", so:</p><p>\"The FOMC has not yet made a decision on how much further monetary policy should be tightened.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell mentioned that the Fed had been expecting further policy tightening before, \"but this consideration has changed recently\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>According to some analysts, this shows that after the banking crisis, Powell began to release the interest rate path signal of \"stay patient\". Nick Timiraos, the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", also said that Powell pointed out that banking pressure will affect monetary decisions.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell warned:</p><p>\"The Fed's financial pressure tools caused by bank failures are independent of the tools that mainly use interest rates to manage monetary policy (so after the banking crisis in March, the Fed still chose to continue its rate hike). However, these two types of tools are still related, and their effects are often not completely independent, but intertwined, which makes it impossible for the two tools to be absolutely and completely separated.\"<h2>U.S. Stocks Turn Down as Debt Ceiling Talks Surge as Powell Speaks, Traders Sequentially Lower June Rate Hike Bets</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During Powell's speech, the gains of U.S. stock indexes narrowed significantly to turn down across the board</strong>, the Dow erased more than 110 points of gains, and the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell small-cap stocks erased early-session gains of 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is mainly because the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations highlighted negative twists and turns, and Republican debt negotiators withdrew from the negotiations, saying that the White House seemed somewhat irrational during the negotiations.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d382eab3a4151b13765223a5e08a22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"64\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, Treasury Bond prices in the United States recovered their losses and yields fell back, with the two-year yield once falling 10 basis points. the US Dollar Index DXY stopped its three-day streak and hit a daily low.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest Fed interest rate swap tool shows that traders are likely to cut the FOMC's rate hike in June to less than 17%, and the likelihood of a temporary rate hike rises to 83%, mainly because the Biden administration's debt ceiling negotiations with Congress are stalled.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e120825a54da04adf42e7884403140d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Earlier, markets were split over the Fed's next move</strong>。 Futures market pricing on Friday morning had shown that the probability of investors betting on a continued rate hike of 25 basis points in June was about 35%, significantly higher than the near-zero probability after the May meeting.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d525be2609f3a3ad04e582aa4ba6f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, a number of Fed officials have also given dissenting interest rate path signals. Both Dallas'and Cleveland's Fed presidents are more inclined to continue the rate hike, while Chicago's and Atlanta's Fed presidents want a more cautious approach amid soaring uncertainty.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the KBW Regional Banking Stock Index extended its decline to 3% during Powell's speech, with Westpac Bancorp and Alleans Western Bank falling more than 5%. However, Powell said that many banks and even the U.S. banking system are strong and resilient.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Observers have noticed,<strong>In this speech, Powell read more of the prepared manuscripts and highlighted many times more uncertainties facing the economy and future monetary policy</strong>This indicates that he is very cautious and conscious in signaling the path of interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Macro analyst Cameron Crise pointed out that Powell's comments on aggregate supply were not particularly dovish, because he mentioned:</p><p>\"We may certainly see continued supply chain shocks. We don't know the stubbornness of supply shocks. The positive supply shocks brought about by globalization before the pandemic may not repeat themselves, which will support higher levels of inflation trends, or pull up neutral interest rates accordingly.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The aforementioned \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\" and Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos also said that Williams, the \"No.3 person\" of the Federal Reserve and President of the New York Fed, delivered a speech before Powell's speech, indicating that the epidemic \"has not changed the model estimate of neutral interest rate\", that is, \"there is no evidence that the era of extremely low neutral interest rate has ended\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the article, if the estimate of neutral interest rate moves up, it means that the interest rate level required by the Fed to curb inflation will be greatly improved; But if the estimate of neutral interest rates remains unchanged, Federal Funds rate may return below 3% if the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down to its 2% target in the next few years:</p><p>\"The model shows that the inflation-adjusted neutral rate was about 0.7% at the end of last year and has declined over the past year, although the level of uncertainty around these estimates is significant. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index for personal consumption expenditures, was 4.2% in March, implying that the nominal neutral rate will be below 5%.\"</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: US inflation well above 2% target, may not need to continue rate hike given credit pressures</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: US inflation well above 2% target, may not need to continue rate hike given credit pressures\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-19 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Although emphasizing the need to fight inflation, Powell still issued a dovish signal saying that he was inclined to support the temporary absence of rate hike in June, and the tightening of credit conditions caused by the banking crisis may mean that the Fed's peak interest rate will be lower than expected: \"The FOMC has not yet made a decision on how much monetary policy should be further tightened.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Friday, May 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a panel discussion called \"Monetary Policy Perspectives\" in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States.</p><p><h2>POWELL: Open to rate hike suspension in June, warning of banking pressure rippling across the broader economy</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although he still emphasized that \"inflation in the United States is far higher than our 2% target\", if the fight against inflation fails, it will cause long-term pain. He called the FOMC \"strongly committed\" to bringing inflation back to its target 2% commitment, and price stability is the foundation for the economy to remain strong.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>But he went on to send a dovish signal that he was inclined to support the June meeting without rate hike,</strong>And the tightening of credit conditions caused by the banking crisis may mean that the Fed's peak interest rate will be lower than expected:</p><p>\"Given the negative impact credit pressures can have on economic growth, employment and inflation, it may not need to (continue) rate hike to that high level to successfully suppress inflation. The Fed has made strides in tightening monetary policy, and the policy stance is now restrictive on economic growth. The risks of doing too much versus doing too little are becoming more balanced. We face multiple uncertainties such as the lagging effects of tightening policies to date and the extent of credit tightening due to recent banking pressures. Given this, the Fed has the ability to watch more data and how the future outlook evolves before deciding how much interest rate hikes it may need to raise. \"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, Powell also emphasized that there are usually challenges in the accuracy of quarterly economic forecasts, and there are also uncertainties in the views he mentioned above and the extent to which they can be achieved, on the grounds that \"the future prospects are facing historically high uncertainties\", so:</p><p>\"The FOMC has not yet made a decision on how much further monetary policy should be tightened.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Powell mentioned that the Fed had been expecting further policy tightening before, \"but this consideration has changed recently\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>According to some analysts, this shows that after the banking crisis, Powell began to release the interest rate path signal of \"stay patient\". Nick Timiraos, the \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\", also said that Powell pointed out that banking pressure will affect monetary decisions.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell warned:</p><p>\"The Fed's financial pressure tools caused by bank failures are independent of the tools that mainly use interest rates to manage monetary policy (so after the banking crisis in March, the Fed still chose to continue its rate hike). However, these two types of tools are still related, and their effects are often not completely independent, but intertwined, which makes it impossible for the two tools to be absolutely and completely separated.\"<h2>U.S. Stocks Turn Down as Debt Ceiling Talks Surge as Powell Speaks, Traders Sequentially Lower June Rate Hike Bets</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During Powell's speech, the gains of U.S. stock indexes narrowed significantly to turn down across the board</strong>, the Dow erased more than 110 points of gains, and the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell small-cap stocks erased early-session gains of 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.9%, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is mainly because the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations highlighted negative twists and turns, and Republican debt negotiators withdrew from the negotiations, saying that the White House seemed somewhat irrational during the negotiations.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d382eab3a4151b13765223a5e08a22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"64\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, Treasury Bond prices in the United States recovered their losses and yields fell back, with the two-year yield once falling 10 basis points. the US Dollar Index DXY stopped its three-day streak and hit a daily low.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest Fed interest rate swap tool shows that traders are likely to cut the FOMC's rate hike in June to less than 17%, and the likelihood of a temporary rate hike rises to 83%, mainly because the Biden administration's debt ceiling negotiations with Congress are stalled.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e120825a54da04adf42e7884403140d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Earlier, markets were split over the Fed's next move</strong>。 Futures market pricing on Friday morning had shown that the probability of investors betting on a continued rate hike of 25 basis points in June was about 35%, significantly higher than the near-zero probability after the May meeting.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d525be2609f3a3ad04e582aa4ba6f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recently, a number of Fed officials have also given dissenting interest rate path signals. Both Dallas'and Cleveland's Fed presidents are more inclined to continue the rate hike, while Chicago's and Atlanta's Fed presidents want a more cautious approach amid soaring uncertainty.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, the KBW Regional Banking Stock Index extended its decline to 3% during Powell's speech, with Westpac Bancorp and Alleans Western Bank falling more than 5%. However, Powell said that many banks and even the U.S. banking system are strong and resilient.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Observers have noticed,<strong>In this speech, Powell read more of the prepared manuscripts and highlighted many times more uncertainties facing the economy and future monetary policy</strong>This indicates that he is very cautious and conscious in signaling the path of interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Macro analyst Cameron Crise pointed out that Powell's comments on aggregate supply were not particularly dovish, because he mentioned:</p><p>\"We may certainly see continued supply chain shocks. We don't know the stubbornness of supply shocks. The positive supply shocks brought about by globalization before the pandemic may not repeat themselves, which will support higher levels of inflation trends, or pull up neutral interest rates accordingly.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The aforementioned \"New Federal Reserve News Agency\" and Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos also said that Williams, the \"No.3 person\" of the Federal Reserve and President of the New York Fed, delivered a speech before Powell's speech, indicating that the epidemic \"has not changed the model estimate of neutral interest rate\", that is, \"there is no evidence that the era of extremely low neutral interest rate has ended\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the article, if the estimate of neutral interest rate moves up, it means that the interest rate level required by the Fed to curb inflation will be greatly improved; But if the estimate of neutral interest rates remains unchanged, Federal Funds rate may return below 3% if the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down to its 2% target in the next few years:</p><p>\"The model shows that the inflation-adjusted neutral rate was about 0.7% at the end of last year and has declined over the past year, although the level of uncertainty around these estimates is significant. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index for personal consumption expenditures, was 4.2% in March, implying that the nominal neutral rate will be below 5%.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689211\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58820e46e9f902d62aabc122bf96dfeb","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689211","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143041736","content_text":"虽然强调抗击通胀的必要性，鲍威尔还是发表鸽派信号称，自己倾向于支持6月暂不加息，而且银行业危机导致的信贷条件收紧，可能意味着美联储峰值利率将低于预期：“FOMC尚未就货币政策应进一步收紧多少而作出决定。”5月19日周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国首都华盛顿特区出席了名为“货币政策观点”的小组讨论。鲍威尔：对6月暂停加息持开放态度，预警银行业压力波及更广泛经济虽然他依旧强调，“美国通胀远远高于我们2%的目标”，若抗通胀失败，将造成漫长的痛苦。他称，FOMC“强有力地致力于”让通胀重返目标2%的承诺，物价稳定是经济保持强劲的根基。但鲍威尔继而发表鸽派信号称，自己倾向于支持6月会议暂不加息，而且银行业危机导致的信贷条件收紧，可能意味着美联储峰值利率将低于预期：“鉴于信贷压力可能对经济增长、就业和通胀造成的负面影响，可能无需（继续）加息至那么高的水平就能成功打压通胀。美联储在收紧货币政策方面已取得长足进步，政策立场现在是对经济增长具有限制性的。做太多与做太少的风险正变得更加平衡。我们面临着迄今为止收紧政策的效应滞后，以及近期银行业压力导致的信贷收紧程度等多重不确定性。有鉴于此，美联储有能力观察更多数据和未来前景的演变，然后再决定可能需要提高多少利率。”同时，鲍威尔也强调季度经济预测的准确度通常存在挑战，他上述提到的观点及其能实现的程度也都存在不确定性，理由是“未来前景面临着历史性高企的不确定性”，所以：“FOMC尚未就货币政策应进一步收紧多少而作出决定。”鲍威尔提到，此前美联储一直预料政策应该进一步收紧，“但最近这样的考量有所改变”。有分析称，这说明银行业危机后，鲍威尔开始释放“保持耐心”的利率路径信号。“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos也称，鲍威尔点明银行业压力将影响货币决策。因为鲍威尔警告道：“美联储处置银行倒闭事件引发的金融压力工具，与主要用利率来管理货币政策的工具是彼此独立的，（所以3月银行业危机后，美联储仍选择继续加息）。但这两类工具仍具有关联性，其效果往往不是完全独立呈现，而是交织在一起，这令两种工具不可能绝对和完全分离。”鲍威尔讲话时债务上限谈判突现波澜，美股转跌，交易员循序下调6月加息押注在鲍威尔讲话期间，美股指数涨幅显著收窄至全线转跌，道指抹去逾110点的涨幅，纳指、标普500指数和罗素小盘股分别抹去盘初0.3%、0.3%和0.9%的涨幅。这主要是因为美国债务上限谈判突显负面波折，共和党债务谈判代表退出谈判，称白宫方面在谈判过程中显得有些不理性。同时，美国国债价格收复跌幅，收益率回落，两年期收益率一度跌10个基点。美元指数DXY止步三日连涨并触及日低。最新的美联储利率互换工具显示，交易员们下调FOMC在6月份加息的可能性至不足17%，暂不加息可能性升至83%，主要由于拜登政府与国会的债务上限磋商陷入僵持。此前，市场一度对美联储下一步行动产生了分歧。周五上午的期货市场定价曾显示，投资者押注6月继续加息25个基点的概率约为35%，显著高于5月会议结束后的近零概率。近期多位美联储官员也给出了意见相左的利率路径信号。达拉斯联储主席和克利夫兰联储主席都更倾向于继续加息，芝加哥和亚特兰大联储主席则希望在不确定性飙升之际采取更谨慎的做法。此外，KBW地区银行股指数在鲍威尔讲话期间跌幅扩大至3%，西太平洋合众银行和阿莱恩斯西部银行跌超5%。不过，鲍威尔称，众多银行乃至美国银行系统强有力且具有韧性。观察人士注意到，鲍威尔在本次讲话中更多在念已经准备好的稿件，并强调了很多次经济和未来货币政策面临的更多不确定性，这表明他在非常谨慎和有意识地传递利率路径信号。宏观分析师Cameron Crise则指出，鲍威尔有关总供给的评论并非特别鸽派，因为他提到：“我们肯定可能会看到继续发生供应链冲击，不知道供应冲击的顽固程度，疫情之前由全球化带来的积极供给冲击可能不会重现，这将支持更高的通胀趋势水平，或相应拉高中性利率。”前文提到的“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos还称，美联储“三号人物”、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在鲍威尔讲话前发表演讲，表明疫情“并未改变对中性利率的模型估计”，即“没有证据表明极低的中性利率时代已经结束”。该文章称，若对中性利率的预估值上移，则代表美联储遏制通胀所需的利率水平将大大提高；但若中性利率的估计值不变，那么如果美联储在未来几年内成功将通胀降至2%目标后，联邦基金利率可能会重回3%下方：“该模型显示，去年底经通胀调整的中性利率约为0.7%，并在过去一年有所下降，尽管这些估计值的不确定性程度很大。3 月份美联储首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出PCE价格指数为4.2%，这意味着名义中性利率将低于5%。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,".SPX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652292854,"gmtCreate":1684571845380,"gmtModify":1684571845380,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652292854","repostId":"652686743","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":652686743,"gmtCreate":1684487451882,"gmtModify":1684491210678,"author":{"id":"3527667688472228","authorId":"3527667688472228","name":"ETF小幫手","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667688472228","idStr":"3527667688472228"},"themes":[],"title":"ETF追蹤 | 巴菲特贏麻了！收穫日股33年新高！這些ETF可以投資","htmlText":"近期，日本股市表現亮眼，日本東證股價指數攀升至 1990 年以來的最高水平，日經 225 指數上漲至 16 個月以來的最高收盤價。一系列強勁的企業盈利、外國堅實的趨勢購買、穩定的日本央行政策、日元走軟和回購增加提振了投資者對日本股市的信心，大多數分析師轉而看好這個世界第三大經濟體。尋求利用潛在反彈的投資者絕對應該投資日本 ETF。儘管今年大多數 ETF 都取得了可觀的回報，其中包括iShares MSCI 日本 ETF（EWJ），摩根大通 BetaBuilders 日本 ETF（BBJP）、WisdomTree 日本對衝股票基金（DXJ ），富蘭克林富時日本 ETF（FLJP）和Xtrackers MSCI 日本對衝股票 ETF（DBJP ）。名稱代碼資產管理規模（美元）費用率簡介iShares MSCI Japan ETFEWJ104.7億0.50%EWJ 追蹤市值加權指數，該指數涵蓋日本交易的可投資證券領域的大約 85%。JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETFBBJP76.6億0.19%BBJP 追蹤日本大盤股和中盤股的市值加權指數。WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity FundDXJ16.8億0.48%DXJ 追蹤以出口商爲中心的日本股票股息加權指數。該基金針對美元和日元之間的貨幣波動進行對衝。Franklin FTSE Japan ETFFLJP11.8億0.09%FLJP 跟蹤日本股票的市值選擇和加權指數。Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETFDBJP2.73億0.46%日經 225 指數是 2023 年亞洲表現最佳的主要基準指數。隨着經濟在去年下半年全面重新開放後強勁反彈，預計這一優異表現將持續。由於消費者支出強勁和邊境重新開放，今年商業和服務活動都在增長。勞動力市場仍然相對緊","listText":"近期，日本股市表現亮眼，日本東證股價指數攀升至 1990 年以來的最高水平，日經 225 指數上漲至 16 個月以來的最高收盤價。一系列強勁的企業盈利、外國堅實的趨勢購買、穩定的日本央行政策、日元走軟和回購增加提振了投資者對日本股市的信心，大多數分析師轉而看好這個世界第三大經濟體。尋求利用潛在反彈的投資者絕對應該投資日本 ETF。儘管今年大多數 ETF 都取得了可觀的回報，其中包括iShares MSCI 日本 ETF（EWJ），摩根大通 BetaBuilders 日本 ETF（BBJP）、WisdomTree 日本對衝股票基金（DXJ ），富蘭克林富時日本 ETF（FLJP）和Xtrackers MSCI 日本對衝股票 ETF（DBJP ）。名稱代碼資產管理規模（美元）費用率簡介iShares MSCI Japan ETFEWJ104.7億0.50%EWJ 追蹤市值加權指數，該指數涵蓋日本交易的可投資證券領域的大約 85%。JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETFBBJP76.6億0.19%BBJP 追蹤日本大盤股和中盤股的市值加權指數。WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity FundDXJ16.8億0.48%DXJ 追蹤以出口商爲中心的日本股票股息加權指數。該基金針對美元和日元之間的貨幣波動進行對衝。Franklin FTSE Japan ETFFLJP11.8億0.09%FLJP 跟蹤日本股票的市值選擇和加權指數。Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETFDBJP2.73億0.46%日經 225 指數是 2023 年亞洲表現最佳的主要基準指數。隨着經濟在去年下半年全面重新開放後強勁反彈，預計這一優異表現將持續。由於消費者支出強勁和邊境重新開放，今年商業和服務活動都在增長。勞動力市場仍然相對緊","text":"近期，日本股市表現亮眼，日本東證股價指數攀升至 1990 年以來的最高水平，日經 225 指數上漲至 16 個月以來的最高收盤價。一系列強勁的企業盈利、外國堅實的趨勢購買、穩定的日本央行政策、日元走軟和回購增加提振了投資者對日本股市的信心，大多數分析師轉而看好這個世界第三大經濟體。尋求利用潛在反彈的投資者絕對應該投資日本 ETF。儘管今年大多數 ETF 都取得了可觀的回報，其中包括iShares MSCI 日本 ETF（EWJ），摩根大通 BetaBuilders 日本 ETF（BBJP）、WisdomTree 日本對衝股票基金（DXJ ），富蘭克林富時日本 ETF（FLJP）和Xtrackers MSCI 日本對衝股票 ETF（DBJP ）。名稱代碼資產管理規模（美元）費用率簡介iShares MSCI Japan ETFEWJ104.7億0.50%EWJ 追蹤市值加權指數，該指數涵蓋日本交易的可投資證券領域的大約 85%。JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETFBBJP76.6億0.19%BBJP 追蹤日本大盤股和中盤股的市值加權指數。WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity FundDXJ16.8億0.48%DXJ 追蹤以出口商爲中心的日本股票股息加權指數。該基金針對美元和日元之間的貨幣波動進行對衝。Franklin FTSE Japan ETFFLJP11.8億0.09%FLJP 跟蹤日本股票的市值選擇和加權指數。Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETFDBJP2.73億0.46%日經 225 指數是 2023 年亞洲表現最佳的主要基準指數。隨着經濟在去年下半年全面重新開放後強勁反彈，預計這一優異表現將持續。由於消費者支出強勁和邊境重新開放，今年商業和服務活動都在增長。勞動力市場仍然相對緊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652686743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652928662,"gmtCreate":1684231633157,"gmtModify":1684231633157,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652928662","repostId":"2335881808","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2335881808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684176240,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2335881808?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-16 02:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines | Fed officials say there are reasons for rate hike or suspension","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2335881808","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储官员暗示加息或按兵不动都有理由 但降息并非考虑选项       2、摩根士丹利策略师Wilson：债务上限之争将引发股市剧烈波动       3","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</strong></p><p><strong>1. Federal Reserve officials suggest that there are reasons for rate hike or standing still, but cutting interest rates is not an option to consider</strong><strong></strong><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Wilson: Debt ceiling battle set to spark wild volatility in stocks</strong><strong></strong><strong>3. Recession? Recession Has Comed From American Corporate Profits</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>US$69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard gets EU approval</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>5. US billionaire Jones says the Fed's rate hike is over, and the stock market will rise this year</strong><strong></strong><strong>6. EU raises euro zone inflation forecast due to soaring core prices</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a33184d7855ac67453e4cfc76fb770c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Fed officials suggest there are reasons for rate hike or standing still, but cutting interest rates is not an option to consider</strong></p><p>Two Fed officials hinted at support for a rate hike moratorium, while another policymaker said the Fed may have more work to do to fight inflation.</p><p>\"The Fed may have more work to do to push inflation back down,\" Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at a discussion Monday in St. Paul, Minn.</p><p>He said, \"The labor market is still hot and we're not seeing a significant cooling. That tells me we still have a long way to go before inflation comes back down\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e20937c10116dcd2556a8dfb3195b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson: Debt ceiling battle set to spark wild stock market volatility</strong></p><p>Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, one of Wall Street's most pessimistic voices, expects the debate over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion borrowing ceiling to trigger wild volatility in stocks.</p><p>Most customers \"believe things will eventually be sorted out, but it can't be calm anytime soon,\" Wilson wrote in a note, adding that many customers see the matter as a \"lose-lose\" for the market.</p><p>Given the S&P 500's sensitivity to liquidity changes in recent history, even raising the debt ceiling before the so-called \"deadline day\" — the day the U.S. Treasury runs out of cash — could squeeze liquidity and cause the index to fall, said Wilson, who accurately predicted U.S. stock market declines in 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f73df55e8cc6db5a6605cd22e8602e4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Recession? Recession Has Comed From American Corporate Profits</strong></p><p>With the U.S. economy on the brink of recession, Wall Street is already enduring its longest-lasting slump in corporate profits in seven years.</p><p>Profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 3.7% on average year-over-year as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close. While the compiled data shows that 78% of companies beat profit expectations, the above data is actually less impressive given that analysts cut their estimates before the start of the quarter.</p><p>What's more, this is the second consecutive quarter of U.S. corporate earnings decline. Based on the compiled data, pessimistic estimates of corporate profits are now focused on the April-June period, during which profits are expected to slip by 7.3%. Analysts believe the pressure from rising interest rates and shrinking consumer demand will extend into the third quarter of 2023, after previous forecasts that earnings would begin to recover by then.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267741ae123e1e49da3df7d8a8339545\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard gets EU approval</strong></p><p>Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard has been approved by the European Union. It comes just weeks after the UK's mergers and acquisitions regulator made the shock decision to veto the biggest deal the gaming industry has ever seen.</p><p>The European Commission said its self-identification analysis showed the deal would not hurt competition, as Microsoft promised to let cloud rivals offer blockbuster products such as Call of Duty on their own platforms within a decade.</p><p>The EU approval is just the opposite of a decision last month by the UK's Competition and Markets Authority. The Federal Trade Commission also sought to block the deal last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdcfd2c59fc6d8f8381cc08da4d03ad2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>　　<strong>US billionaire Jones says the Fed's rate hike is over, stocks will rise this year</strong></p><p>Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed rate hike is over and stocks will rise this year even if the economy slows.</p><p>The Fed \"could declare victory,\" Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp., said in an interview. He also said inflation had slowed for 12 consecutive months, \"which has never happened in history.\"</p><p>While Jones said the economy could slip into a recession in the third or fourth quarter, he expects stocks to rise this year. \"I'm not feverishly bullish because I think it's going to be a slow process,\" he said, comparing that time to June 2006, when the Fed stopped its rate hike and stocks rallied for another year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc976f43904b9f5117812c5b6af093bf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>　　<strong>EU raises eurozone inflation forecast as core prices surge</strong></p><p>The European Commission has sharply raised its outlook for eurozone inflation and warned of \"ongoing challenges\", even as the EU acknowledged the eurozone economy is resilient.</p><p>EU officials pointed to strong underlying inflationary pressures, raising their CPI forecasts to a 5.8% rise this year and a 2.8% rise for 2024. EU officials also raised their economic growth forecasts over the outlook period.</p><p>Key to the upward inflation outlook is that the European Commission raised its core inflation rate assessment, which strips out volatile items such as food, by 3/4 percentage points. EU officials say core inflation will outpace headline inflation this year and next.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines | Fed officials say there are reasons for rate hike or suspension</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines | Fed officials say there are reasons for rate hike or suspension\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-16 02:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</strong></p><p><strong>1. Federal Reserve officials suggest that there are reasons for rate hike or standing still, but cutting interest rates is not an option to consider</strong><strong></strong><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategist Wilson: Debt ceiling battle set to spark wild volatility in stocks</strong><strong></strong><strong>3. Recession? Recession Has Comed From American Corporate Profits</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>US$69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard gets EU approval</strong><strong>　　</strong><strong>5. US billionaire Jones says the Fed's rate hike is over, and the stock market will rise this year</strong><strong></strong><strong>6. EU raises euro zone inflation forecast due to soaring core prices</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a33184d7855ac67453e4cfc76fb770c\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Fed officials suggest there are reasons for rate hike or standing still, but cutting interest rates is not an option to consider</strong></p><p>Two Fed officials hinted at support for a rate hike moratorium, while another policymaker said the Fed may have more work to do to fight inflation.</p><p>\"The Fed may have more work to do to push inflation back down,\" Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at a discussion Monday in St. Paul, Minn.</p><p>He said, \"The labor market is still hot and we're not seeing a significant cooling. That tells me we still have a long way to go before inflation comes back down\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e20937c10116dcd2556a8dfb3195b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson: Debt ceiling battle set to spark wild stock market volatility</strong></p><p>Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, one of Wall Street's most pessimistic voices, expects the debate over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion borrowing ceiling to trigger wild volatility in stocks.</p><p>Most customers \"believe things will eventually be sorted out, but it can't be calm anytime soon,\" Wilson wrote in a note, adding that many customers see the matter as a \"lose-lose\" for the market.</p><p>Given the S&P 500's sensitivity to liquidity changes in recent history, even raising the debt ceiling before the so-called \"deadline day\" — the day the U.S. Treasury runs out of cash — could squeeze liquidity and cause the index to fall, said Wilson, who accurately predicted U.S. stock market declines in 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f73df55e8cc6db5a6605cd22e8602e4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Recession? Recession Has Comed From American Corporate Profits</strong></p><p>With the U.S. economy on the brink of recession, Wall Street is already enduring its longest-lasting slump in corporate profits in seven years.</p><p>Profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to fall 3.7% on average year-over-year as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close. While the compiled data shows that 78% of companies beat profit expectations, the above data is actually less impressive given that analysts cut their estimates before the start of the quarter.</p><p>What's more, this is the second consecutive quarter of U.S. corporate earnings decline. Based on the compiled data, pessimistic estimates of corporate profits are now focused on the April-June period, during which profits are expected to slip by 7.3%. Analysts believe the pressure from rising interest rates and shrinking consumer demand will extend into the third quarter of 2023, after previous forecasts that earnings would begin to recover by then.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/267741ae123e1e49da3df7d8a8339545\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>　　<strong>Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard gets EU approval</strong></p><p>Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard has been approved by the European Union. It comes just weeks after the UK's mergers and acquisitions regulator made the shock decision to veto the biggest deal the gaming industry has ever seen.</p><p>The European Commission said its self-identification analysis showed the deal would not hurt competition, as Microsoft promised to let cloud rivals offer blockbuster products such as Call of Duty on their own platforms within a decade.</p><p>The EU approval is just the opposite of a decision last month by the UK's Competition and Markets Authority. The Federal Trade Commission also sought to block the deal last year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdcfd2c59fc6d8f8381cc08da4d03ad2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>　　<strong>US billionaire Jones says the Fed's rate hike is over, stocks will rise this year</strong></p><p>Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed rate hike is over and stocks will rise this year even if the economy slows.</p><p>The Fed \"could declare victory,\" Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp., said in an interview. He also said inflation had slowed for 12 consecutive months, \"which has never happened in history.\"</p><p>While Jones said the economy could slip into a recession in the third or fourth quarter, he expects stocks to rise this year. \"I'm not feverishly bullish because I think it's going to be a slow process,\" he said, comparing that time to June 2006, when the Fed stopped its rate hike and stocks rallied for another year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc976f43904b9f5117812c5b6af093bf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"331\"/></p><p>　　<strong>EU raises eurozone inflation forecast as core prices surge</strong></p><p>The European Commission has sharply raised its outlook for eurozone inflation and warned of \"ongoing challenges\", even as the EU acknowledged the eurozone economy is resilient.</p><p>EU officials pointed to strong underlying inflationary pressures, raising their CPI forecasts to a 5.8% rise this year and a 2.8% rise for 2024. EU officials also raised their economic growth forecasts over the outlook period.</p><p>Key to the upward inflation outlook is that the European Commission raised its core inflation rate assessment, which strips out volatile items such as food, by 3/4 percentage points. EU officials say core inflation will outpace headline inflation this year and next.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2023-05-16/doc-imytwxhn0257279.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a33184d7855ac67453e4cfc76fb770c","relate_stocks":{"LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","MSFT":"微软","BK4576":"AR","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4538":"云计算","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4579":"人工智能","ATVI":"动视暴雪","BK4588":"碎股","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1093756325.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin K2 Alt Strat Fd A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2023-05-16/doc-imytwxhn0257279.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2335881808","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储官员暗示加息或按兵不动都有理由 但降息并非考虑选项       2、摩根士丹利策略师Wilson：债务上限之争将引发股市剧烈波动       3、经济衰退？从美国企业的获利得知衰退已经来了 　　4、微软对动视暴雪690亿美元的收购交易获得欧盟批准 　　5、美亿万富翁Jones称美联储加息已完结 股市今年会涨       6、欧盟上调欧元区通胀预期 因核心价格飙升　　美联储官员暗示加息或按兵不动都有理由 但降息并非考虑选项　　两位美联储官员暗示支持暂停加息，另一位决策者则表示，美联储在打击通胀方面可能还有更多工作要做。　　明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel Kashkari周一在明尼苏达州圣保罗举行的讨论会上表示：“美联储在推动通胀回落方面可能有更多工作要做”。 　　他说，“劳动力市场仍然很热，我们没有看到明显降温。这告诉我，在通胀回落之前我们还有很长的路要走”。　　摩根士丹利策略师Wilson：债务上限之争将引发股市剧烈波动　　华尔街最悲观的声音之一、摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson预计，针对提高美国政府31.4万亿美元借款上限的争论将引发股市剧烈波动。　　大多数客户“相信事情最终会得到解决，但短期内不可能风平浪静，” Wilson在一份报告中写道，并补充说，许多客户认为此事对“市场是双输”。　　准确预测了2022年美国股市下跌的Wilson表示，鉴于近期历史上标普500指数对流动性变化的敏感度，即使在所谓的“大限日”（美国财政部现金耗尽的那一天）之前提高债务上限，也可能挤压流动性并导致该指数下跌。　　经济衰退？从美国企业的获利得知衰退已经来了　　随着美国经济在衰退的边缘载沉载浮，华尔街已经在忍受七年来持续最久的企业利润下滑。　　随着第一季度财报季接近尾声，标普500指数成分股公司的获利料同比平均下跌3.7%。虽然汇编的数据显示，78%的公司获利超出预期，但鉴于分析师在该季度开始前下调预期，因此上述数据其实没有那么令人印象深刻。　　更重要的是，这是美国企业盈利连续第二个季度下滑。根据汇编的数据，对企业获利的悲观预估现在集中在4月至6月期间，预计这段期间的利润将下滑7.3%。分析师认为，利率上升和消费者需求萎缩带来的压力将延续到2023年第三季度，此前的预测是届时盈利将开始复苏。　　微软对动视暴雪690亿美元的收购交易获得欧盟批准　　微软对动视暴雪690亿美元的收购交易获得了欧盟的批准。就在几周前，英国并购监管机构做出了令人震惊的决定，否决了这笔游戏行业有史以来规模最大的交易。　　欧盟委员会表示，其自身份析显示，这笔交易不会损害竞争，因为微软承诺十年内让云领域的竞争对手在他们自己的平台上提供《使命召唤》等重磅产品。　　欧盟的批准与英国竞争和市场管理局上月的决定刚好相反。美国联邦贸易委员会去年也寻求阻止这笔交易。　　美亿万富翁Jones称美联储加息已完结 股市今年会涨　　亿万富翁Paul Tudor Jones表示，美联储加息已完结，即使经济放缓，股市今年也会涨。　　美联储“可能会宣布获胜，”Tudor Investment Corp．创始人Jones在接受采访时表示。他还表示，通胀率已经连续12个月放缓，“这在历史上从未有过。”　　尽管Jones表示经济可能在第三或第四季度陷入衰退，但他预计股市今年会涨。“我并非狂热看涨，因为我认为这将是一个缓慢的过程，”他说，并把这段时间与2006年6月相比，当时美联储停止加息，股市又涨了一年。　　欧盟上调欧元区通胀预期 因核心价格飙升　　欧盟委员会大幅上调了欧元区通胀前景，并警告称存在 “持续挑战”，尽管欧盟承认欧元区经济强韧。　　欧盟官员指出基础通胀压力强劲，将今年CPI预测上调至上涨5.8%，2024年的预测上调至上涨2.8%。欧盟官员也上调了展望期内的经济增长预测。　　上调通胀前景的关键在于，欧盟委员会将剔除了食品等波动性项目的核心通胀率评估上调了3/4个百分点。欧盟官员表示，今年和明年的核心通胀将超过总体通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MSFT":1,".DJI":0.9,"ATVI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652928842,"gmtCreate":1684231591288,"gmtModify":1684231591288,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652928842","repostId":"2335848652","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2335848652","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1684192789,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2335848652?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-16 07:19","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"In the first quarter, Hillhouse HHLR added more Chinese concepts, Pinduoduo became the second largest warehouse, and Huazhu was promoted to the top ten","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2335848652","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一季度高瓴增持最多的是拼多多，持股较四季度增长266%，刚建仓华住酒店305万股就晋升十大重仓股之一，加仓阿里21%；一季度减持最多的是京东，持股减少63%，在十大重仓股中排名从第二降至第十；一季度新进百度、理想汽车；加仓美国科技股微软、亚马逊、AMD。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hillhouse added the most holdings in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Shareholding increased by 266% compared with the fourth quarter, and just opened a position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>3.05 million shares of the hotel were promoted to one of the top ten heavyweight stocks, adding 21% to Ali; The largest reduction in the first quarter was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>The shareholding decreased by 63%, and the ranking of the top ten heavyweight stocks dropped from second to tenth; New entry in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>； Adding positions to U.S. tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, AMD. On Monday, May 15th, Eastern Time, HHLR Advisors, a fund management institution specializing in secondary investment under Hillhouse Capital, announced the 13F document, disclosing that in the first quarter of this year, it continued to concentrate on the allocation of Chinese stocks, and the ranking of some heavily positioned Chinese stocks improved.</p><p>This position document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission shows that the market value of Hillhouse HHLR (hereinafter referred to as \"Hillhouse\") in the first quarter increased by nearly 20% compared with the fourth quarter of last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Including nine Chinese stocks, they have carried out operations such as increased holdings and new purchases.</p><p>As of the end of the first quarter, Hillhouse's top ten heavyweight stocks were:</p><p>I.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>(BGNE); 2. Pinduoduo (PDD); III,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Housing Search (BEKE); Four,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>(BABA); V. Cloud software giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTSE</a>(Salesforce, Code CRM); 6. \"American version of Meituan\" DoorDash (DASH); VII. Freeport-McMoRan (code FCX), a mineral and oil and gas resources company; 8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>(LEGN); IX,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Hospitality Group (HTHT);<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>(JD). Like the fourth quarter of last year, there were seven Chinese stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks in Hillhouse in the first quarter. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>The positions are still ranked first,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>And Ali's ranking also remained unchanged, ranking third and fourth respectively, Pinduoduo rose from eighth to second, and JD.COM, the second-largest stock in the fourth quarter, fell to tenth.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>The ranking dropped from sixth to eighth, Huazhu Hotel is the new face in the top ten, ranking fifth in the fourth quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Dropped out of the top ten.</p><p>Among non-Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTSE</a>Our position ranking rose from ninth to fifth, DoorDash's ranking rose from tenth to sixth, and Freeport McMoRan's ranking was flat for four quarters.</p><p><h2>Continue to add positions to Ali and Pinduoduo Pinduoduo to double their positions Just Jiancang Huazhu was promoted to the top ten</h2>By the end of the first quarter of this year, among all U.S. stock positions in Hillhouse, the total market value of Chinese stocks accounted for nearly 70%, accounting for the same proportion as the end of the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p>In the first quarter, the stock with the largest increase in Hillhouse holdings was Pinduoduo. In the quarter, it significantly increased its holdings of nearly 7.74 million shares of Pinduoduo, an increase of 266% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The total number of shares increased by 10.64 million shares, and the market value at the end of the quarter was nearly 808 million USD, thus becoming the second largest Awkwardness of Hillhouse, and its proportion in the investment portfolio rose from 5% in the fourth quarter to 14.32%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Hillhouse's shareholding in Alibaba increased by more than 660,000 shares, or 21%, from the previous quarter. At the end of the quarter, it held more than 3.78 million shares, with a market capitalization of nearly $390 million, and its share in the investment portfolio rose from 5.81% in the fourth quarter to 6.86%.</p><p>This is the third consecutive quarter that Hillhouse has added positions to Pinduoduo and Ali after opening positions in the second quarter of last year.</p><p>Wall Street has mentioned that in the first quarter of last year, Gao Ling cleared Alibaba and Pinduoduo, and in the second quarter, he bought 1.89 million shares and 1.39 million shares, respectively. In the third quarter, he increased his holdings of Pinduoduo by more than 600,000 shares, making Pinduoduo's positions among the top ten. At the same time, he increased his holdings of Ali by nearly 350,000 shares, and Ali's position rose from eighth to eighth.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the 13F position report released by Jinglin Assets last week, the number one weight stock was Pinduoduo, which held a total of 4.239 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of USD 322 million. Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks in Jinglin, China Concept stocks account for six seats, all of which have strong Internet attributes.</p><p>In the first quarter, Shell was the second largest stock in the elderly after Pinduoduo. In the quarter, it increased its holdings by 10.18 million shares, which increased by 48% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. At the end of the quarter, its market value exceeded 588 million USD, accounting for 10.43% of the investment portfolio.</p><p>In the first quarter, as a newly built stock, Huazhu just got 3.05 million shares built by Hillhouse, and it ranked among the top ten heavyweight stocks. At the end of the quarter, its market value exceeded 164 million USD, accounting for 2.92% of the investment portfolio, making it the most betted Chinese stock in the first quarter after Pinduoduo and Shell.</p><p>The data shows that Huazhu's share price rose by 15.46% in the first quarter of this year. Public information shows that during the May Day period, the average Hotel booking rate of Huazhu Group in China reached 90%, among which the average booking rate of Intercity hotels Intercity Hotel, Orange Crystal and Manxin exceeded 80%.</p><p><h2>New entry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Significantly reduce the holdings of JD.COM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a></h2>In the first quarter, Hillhouse increased its holdings and added 23 new U.S. stock targets, and at the same time, it reduced and adjusted 27 U.S. stock targets according to market changes. In addition to Chinese stocks, technology is still the main investment logic of HHLR. In addition to Salesforce and DoorDash, which still appear in the top ten heavy holdings, HHLR also increased its holdings in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, new to AMD.</p><p>Among the Chinese stocks, Hillhouse added two new Chinese stocks, Baidu and Li Auto, in the quarter, of which nearly 406,000 shares of Baidu were bought, with a market value of more than 61.2 million USD at the end of the quarter, accounting for 0.83% of the investment portfolio; More than 1.04 million shares of Li Auto were bought, with a quarter-end market capitalization of more than $25.72 million, representing 0.46% of the portfolio.</p><p>The stock that Hillhouse reduced the most in the first quarter was JD.COM. Compared with the fourth quarter, its shareholding in the quarter decreased by more than 4.22 million shares, or 63%. At the end of the quarter, its shareholding dropped to nearly 2.4 million shares, with a market value of more than 105 million USD, and its proportion in the investment portfolio dropped from 7.85% in the fourth quarter to 1.87%. Last Friday, Jinglin also announced that it would reduce its holdings in JD.COM in the first quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, the scale of reduction is second only to JD.COM, which is Vipshop. In the quarter, the shareholding of Vipshop decreased by nearly 16.68 million shares, or 87%, and the shareholding dropped to 2.3 million shares, with a market value of nearly 35 million USD. Its proportion in the investment portfolio dropped from 5.47% in the fourth quarter to 0.62%, and its position ranking dropped from fifth in the fourth quarter to 23rd.</p><p>Recent reports show that Bridgewater, Soros and other institutions also made obvious positions adjustment in the first quarter, and Bridgewater reduced its holdings of Pioneer Pilot in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMHD.UK\">FTSE Emerging Markets ETF</a>Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDLZ\">Mondelez</a>International equal subject matter; Soros Fund increased its holdings in 31 stocks, cleared 89 stocks and reduced its holdings in 54 stocks by the end of the first quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the first quarter, Hillhouse HHLR added more Chinese concepts, Pinduoduo became the second largest warehouse, and Huazhu was promoted to the top ten</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the first quarter, Hillhouse HHLR added more Chinese concepts, Pinduoduo became the second largest warehouse, and Huazhu was promoted to the top ten\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-16 07:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: Hillhouse added the most holdings in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Shareholding increased by 266% compared with the fourth quarter, and just opened a position<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>3.05 million shares of the hotel were promoted to one of the top ten heavyweight stocks, adding 21% to Ali; The largest reduction in the first quarter was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>The shareholding decreased by 63%, and the ranking of the top ten heavyweight stocks dropped from second to tenth; New entry in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>； Adding positions to U.S. tech stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, AMD. On Monday, May 15th, Eastern Time, HHLR Advisors, a fund management institution specializing in secondary investment under Hillhouse Capital, announced the 13F document, disclosing that in the first quarter of this year, it continued to concentrate on the allocation of Chinese stocks, and the ranking of some heavily positioned Chinese stocks improved.</p><p>This position document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission shows that the market value of Hillhouse HHLR (hereinafter referred to as \"Hillhouse\") in the first quarter increased by nearly 20% compared with the fourth quarter of last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Including nine Chinese stocks, they have carried out operations such as increased holdings and new purchases.</p><p>As of the end of the first quarter, Hillhouse's top ten heavyweight stocks were:</p><p>I.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">BeiGene</a>(BGNE); 2. Pinduoduo (PDD); III,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>Housing Search (BEKE); Four,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>(BABA); V. Cloud software giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTSE</a>(Salesforce, Code CRM); 6. \"American version of Meituan\" DoorDash (DASH); VII. Freeport-McMoRan (code FCX), a mineral and oil and gas resources company; 8.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>(LEGN); IX,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HTHT\">Huazhu</a>Hospitality Group (HTHT);<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>(JD). Like the fourth quarter of last year, there were seven Chinese stocks among the top ten Awkwardness stocks in Hillhouse in the first quarter. Among them,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688235\">BeiGene</a>The positions are still ranked first,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shell</a>And Ali's ranking also remained unchanged, ranking third and fourth respectively, Pinduoduo rose from eighth to second, and JD.COM, the second-largest stock in the fourth quarter, fell to tenth.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEGN\">Legendary creatures</a>The ranking dropped from sixth to eighth, Huazhu Hotel is the new face in the top ten, ranking fifth in the fourth quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>Dropped out of the top ten.</p><p>Among non-Chinese concept stocks,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">SAIFTSE</a>Our position ranking rose from ninth to fifth, DoorDash's ranking rose from tenth to sixth, and Freeport McMoRan's ranking was flat for four quarters.</p><p><h2>Continue to add positions to Ali and Pinduoduo Pinduoduo to double their positions Just Jiancang Huazhu was promoted to the top ten</h2>By the end of the first quarter of this year, among all U.S. stock positions in Hillhouse, the total market value of Chinese stocks accounted for nearly 70%, accounting for the same proportion as the end of the fourth quarter of last year.</p><p>In the first quarter, the stock with the largest increase in Hillhouse holdings was Pinduoduo. In the quarter, it significantly increased its holdings of nearly 7.74 million shares of Pinduoduo, an increase of 266% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The total number of shares increased by 10.64 million shares, and the market value at the end of the quarter was nearly 808 million USD, thus becoming the second largest Awkwardness of Hillhouse, and its proportion in the investment portfolio rose from 5% in the fourth quarter to 14.32%.</p><p>In the first quarter, Hillhouse's shareholding in Alibaba increased by more than 660,000 shares, or 21%, from the previous quarter. At the end of the quarter, it held more than 3.78 million shares, with a market capitalization of nearly $390 million, and its share in the investment portfolio rose from 5.81% in the fourth quarter to 6.86%.</p><p>This is the third consecutive quarter that Hillhouse has added positions to Pinduoduo and Ali after opening positions in the second quarter of last year.</p><p>Wall Street has mentioned that in the first quarter of last year, Gao Ling cleared Alibaba and Pinduoduo, and in the second quarter, he bought 1.89 million shares and 1.39 million shares, respectively. In the third quarter, he increased his holdings of Pinduoduo by more than 600,000 shares, making Pinduoduo's positions among the top ten. At the same time, he increased his holdings of Ali by nearly 350,000 shares, and Ali's position rose from eighth to eighth.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the 13F position report released by Jinglin Assets last week, the number one weight stock was Pinduoduo, which held a total of 4.239 million shares in the first quarter, with a market value of USD 322 million. Among the top ten Awkwardness stocks in Jinglin, China Concept stocks account for six seats, all of which have strong Internet attributes.</p><p>In the first quarter, Shell was the second largest stock in the elderly after Pinduoduo. In the quarter, it increased its holdings by 10.18 million shares, which increased by 48% compared with the fourth quarter of last year. At the end of the quarter, its market value exceeded 588 million USD, accounting for 10.43% of the investment portfolio.</p><p>In the first quarter, as a newly built stock, Huazhu just got 3.05 million shares built by Hillhouse, and it ranked among the top ten heavyweight stocks. At the end of the quarter, its market value exceeded 164 million USD, accounting for 2.92% of the investment portfolio, making it the most betted Chinese stock in the first quarter after Pinduoduo and Shell.</p><p>The data shows that Huazhu's share price rose by 15.46% in the first quarter of this year. Public information shows that during the May Day period, the average Hotel booking rate of Huazhu Group in China reached 90%, among which the average booking rate of Intercity hotels Intercity Hotel, Orange Crystal and Manxin exceeded 80%.</p><p><h2>New entry<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Significantly reduce the holdings of JD.COM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a></h2>In the first quarter, Hillhouse increased its holdings and added 23 new U.S. stock targets, and at the same time, it reduced and adjusted 27 U.S. stock targets according to market changes. In addition to Chinese stocks, technology is still the main investment logic of HHLR. In addition to Salesforce and DoorDash, which still appear in the top ten heavy holdings, HHLR also increased its holdings in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>, new to AMD.</p><p>Among the Chinese stocks, Hillhouse added two new Chinese stocks, Baidu and Li Auto, in the quarter, of which nearly 406,000 shares of Baidu were bought, with a market value of more than 61.2 million USD at the end of the quarter, accounting for 0.83% of the investment portfolio; More than 1.04 million shares of Li Auto were bought, with a quarter-end market capitalization of more than $25.72 million, representing 0.46% of the portfolio.</p><p>The stock that Hillhouse reduced the most in the first quarter was JD.COM. Compared with the fourth quarter, its shareholding in the quarter decreased by more than 4.22 million shares, or 63%. At the end of the quarter, its shareholding dropped to nearly 2.4 million shares, with a market value of more than 105 million USD, and its proportion in the investment portfolio dropped from 7.85% in the fourth quarter to 1.87%. Last Friday, Jinglin also announced that it would reduce its holdings in JD.COM in the first quarter.</p><p>In the first quarter, the scale of reduction is second only to JD.COM, which is Vipshop. In the quarter, the shareholding of Vipshop decreased by nearly 16.68 million shares, or 87%, and the shareholding dropped to 2.3 million shares, with a market value of nearly 35 million USD. Its proportion in the investment portfolio dropped from 5.47% in the fourth quarter to 0.62%, and its position ranking dropped from fifth in the fourth quarter to 23rd.</p><p>Recent reports show that Bridgewater, Soros and other institutions also made obvious positions adjustment in the first quarter, and Bridgewater reduced its holdings of Pioneer Pilot in the first quarter<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMHD.UK\">FTSE Emerging Markets ETF</a>Pinduoduo,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDLZ\">Mondelez</a>International equal subject matter; Soros Fund increased its holdings in 31 stocks, cleared 89 stocks and reduced its holdings in 54 stocks by the end of the first quarter.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688806\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cd21a94b4a0f66b8d7b7a1807a17ff","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","HTHT":"华住","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","AMZN":"亚马逊","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","BIDU":"百度","PDD":"拼多多","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","BK4220":"综合零售","LI":"理想汽车","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","MSFT":"微软","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4563":"昨日强势股","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4558":"双十一","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","JD":"京东","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688806","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2335848652","content_text":"摘要：一季度高瓴增持最多的是拼多多，持股较四季度增长266%，刚建仓华住酒店305万股就晋升十大重仓股之一，加仓阿里21%；一季度减持最多的是京东，持股减少63%，在十大重仓股中排名从第二降至第十；一季度新进百度、理想汽车；加仓美国科技股微软、亚马逊、AMD。美东时间5月15日周一，高瓴资本旗下专攻二级投资的基金管理机构HHLR Advisors公布13F文件，披露今年第一季度继续集中配置中概股，部分重仓的中概股排名提升。这份递交美国证监会的持仓文件显示，高瓴HHLR（下称“高瓴”）一季度的持仓市值规模较去年第四季度提升了近20%，一季度共对包括阿里巴巴、拼多多在内的九只中概股进行了增持与新进买入等操作。截至一季度末，高瓴的十大重仓股分别是：一、百济神州（BGNE）；二、拼多多（PDD）；三、贝壳找房（BEKE）；四、阿里巴巴（BABA）；五、云软件巨头赛富时（Salesforce、代码CRM）；六、“美版美团”DoorDash（DASH）；七、矿产和油气资源公司自由港麦克莫兰（Freeport-McMoRan、代码FCX）；八、传奇生物（LEGN）；九、华住酒店集团（HTHT）；京东（JD）。和去年第四季度一样，一季度高瓴十大重仓股中也有七只中概股。其中，百济神州的持仓依然排在第一位，贝壳和阿里的排名也保持不变，分别位居第三和第四，拼多多的排名从第八升至第二，四季度的第二大重仓股京东排名降至第十，传奇生物排名从第六降至第八，华住酒店是前十位中的新面孔，四季度排名第五的唯品会跌出前十。非中概股中，赛富时的持仓排名从第九升至第五，DoorDash的排名从第十升至第六，自由港麦克莫兰的排名持平四季度。继续加仓阿里、拼多多 拼多多持仓翻倍 刚建仓华住就晋升前十到今年一季度末，在高瓴的全部美股持仓中，中概股合计持有市值占比接近70%，占比持平去年四季度末。一季度高瓴增持最多的个股当属拼多多。当季大幅增持拼多多近774万股，较去年四季度持股数增长266%，持股总数增持1064万股，季末市值近8.08亿美元，由此成为高瓴第二大重仓股，在投资组合中的占比从四季度的5%升至14.32%。一季度高瓴对阿里巴巴的持股环比增加66万多股，增幅21%，季末持有超过378万股，市值近3.9亿美元，在投资组合中的占比从四季度的5.81%升至6.86%。这是在去年二季度建仓后高瓴连续第三个季度加仓拼多多和阿里。华尔街见闻曾提到，去年一季度，高瓴清仓阿里巴巴和拼多多，二季度又抄底、再度建仓，分别买入189万股和139万股，三季度增持拼多多超过60万股，使拼多多持仓跻身前十，同时增持阿里将近35万股，阿里的持仓从第八位升至第八位。值得一提的是，在上周景林资产公布的13F持仓报告中，头号重仓股就是拼多多，其一季度共持有423.9万股，市值3.22亿美元。在景林的十大重仓股中，中概股占六席，均有较强的互联网属性。一季度贝壳是仅次于拼多多的高龄第二大增持个股，当季增持1018万股，持股数较去年四季度环比增长48%，季末市值超过5.88亿美元，在投资组合中占比10.43%。一季度，作为新建仓的个股，华住刚被高瓴建仓305万股，就跻身十大重仓股行列，季末市值超过1.64亿美元，在投资组合中占比2.92%，成为仅次于拼多多和贝壳的一季度高瓴押注最多中概股。数据显示今年一季度华住股价上涨15.46%，公开资料显示“五一”期间华住集团在全国的酒店平均预订率达90%，其中城际酒店Intercity Hotel、桔子水晶、漫心的平均预订率超过80%。新进百度、理想汽车 大幅减持京东、唯品会高瓴一季度共增持、新进了23只美股标的，同时根据市场变化对27只美股标的进行了减持调整。除中概股外，科技仍旧是HHLR的主要投资逻辑，除了赛富时、DoorDash依旧出现在十大重仓股外，HHLR在一季度还增持了微软、亚马逊，新进了AMD。中概股中，高瓴当季新进了两只中概股百度和理想汽车，其中买入百度将近40.6万股，季末市值超过6120万美元，在投资组合中占比0.83%；买入理想汽车超过104万股，季末市值超过2572万美元，在投资组合中占比0.46%。高瓴一季度减持最多的个股是京东，当季持股较四季度减少超过422万股，降幅63%，季末持股降至近240万股，市值超过1.05亿美元，在投资组合中的占比从四季度的7.85%降至1.87%。上周五，景林也公布一季度减持京东。一季度减持规模仅次于京东是唯品会。当季对唯品会的持股环比减少近1668万股，降幅87%，持股降至230万股，市值近3500万美元，在投资组合中的占比从四季度的5.47%降至0.62%，持仓排名从四季度的第五降至第23位。新近报告显示，桥水、索罗斯等机构一季度也进行了较明显的调仓，桥水在一季度减持了先锋领航富时新兴市场ETF，拼多多、亿滋国际等标的；索罗斯基金截至一季度末增持31只股票，清仓89只股票，减持54只股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"HTHT":1,"LI":0.9,"PDD":1,"JD":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":652928347,"gmtCreate":1684231544391,"gmtModify":1684231544391,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/652928347","repostId":"2335860452","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2335860452","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1684159340,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2335860452?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-15 22:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Massing ammunition to bet on Fed rate cuts? Be careful to be swept out of the scene by violence!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2335860452","media":"金十数据","summary":"美联储存在“制度性疤痕组织”，这才是美联储不会快速转向的真正原因。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Cooling inflation and the banking crisis have led the market to bet that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the summer, unaware that the Fed has \"institutional scar tissue\", which is the real reason why the Fed will not turn quickly...</strong>Analysts say the Fed appears poised to keep its benchmark rate at its highest level in years, disappointing investors looking forward to rate cuts starting this summer.</p><p>Fed funds futures market pricing as of Friday suggests that,<strong>Traders see a near 40% chance that policymakers will cut their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%-5% at their July 26 meeting</strong>。</p><p><strong>In April, the inflation report was released and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>After regional bank stocks sold off again, the probability of betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in July once rose to nearly 50% in the past week.</strong>Mike Skordeles, head of U.S. economics at Trust Advisory Services, said in an interview:</p><p>\"I don't think the expectation of a rate cut is wrong, but I oppose the expectation of a rate cut in July.\" While inflation has largely continued its downward trend, falling to 4.9% in April after peaking at 9.1% last June, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p>Meanwhile, the labor market remains strong, which Scordels said would allow the Fed to suspend its rate hike until at least the end of 2023. But he added,<strong>It is even possible to rate hike again in June</strong>。</p><p>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said:</p><p>\"The Fed tends to cut interest rates in an average of nine months after the last rate hike. So let's just say that we think the first rate cut will come in early 2024.\" Scodels noted,<strong>The Fed's existence of \"institutional scar tissue (referring to overreacting to scenarios that are unlikely to happen again)\" also makes it unlikely that it will suddenly switch from 10 consecutive rate hike to rate cuts within two months.</strong>He noted that the Fed has made policy missteps over the past few decades. Stoval also said:</p><p>\"The Fed has been telling us that they don't want to make the mistakes of the late 1970s and early 1980s.\" At the time, policymakers believed they had controlled high inflation after the first round of rate hike and then began cutting interest rates, which triggered inflation to accelerate again. Stoval said:</p><p>\"They had to start a rate hike again. It was like a firefighter putting out a fire only to turn off the tap prematurely.\" The CFRA strategist said overheating inflation is upsetting the Fed and some investors are upset that interest rates remain elevated,<strong>Because the market is widely expected to slow economic growth and tighten credit after the banking crisis.</strong></p><p>Investors are also watching whether Congress will raise the debt ceiling, with a deadline coming as early as June 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO Dimon warned last week that failing to raise the debt ceiling in time \"could be disastrous\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>There will be plenty of data before the Fed meets again on June 13-14, including the PCE inflation data and the May nonfarm payrolls report</strong>。 Currently, traders expect a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at 5%-5.25% in June.</p><p>With so much data to digest, Scordels said,<strong>It's too early to say the Fed won't rate hike again next month</strong>。 He said:</p><p>\"For them, the bar for rate hike is high, but the bar for rate cuts is higher.\" Mr Scodels said,<strong>The factor that could drive interest rate cuts is the (rising) unemployment rate</strong>, which could come before the end of the year. Nothing, he believes, is more straightforward than a negative monthly employment report.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Massing ammunition to bet on Fed rate cuts? Be careful to be swept out of the scene by violence!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMassing ammunition to bet on Fed rate cuts? Be careful to be swept out of the scene by violence!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-15 22:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Cooling inflation and the banking crisis have led the market to bet that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the summer, unaware that the Fed has \"institutional scar tissue\", which is the real reason why the Fed will not turn quickly...</strong>Analysts say the Fed appears poised to keep its benchmark rate at its highest level in years, disappointing investors looking forward to rate cuts starting this summer.</p><p>Fed funds futures market pricing as of Friday suggests that,<strong>Traders see a near 40% chance that policymakers will cut their benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%-5% at their July 26 meeting</strong>。</p><p><strong>In April, the inflation report was released and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>After regional bank stocks sold off again, the probability of betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in July once rose to nearly 50% in the past week.</strong>Mike Skordeles, head of U.S. economics at Trust Advisory Services, said in an interview:</p><p>\"I don't think the expectation of a rate cut is wrong, but I oppose the expectation of a rate cut in July.\" While inflation has largely continued its downward trend, falling to 4.9% in April after peaking at 9.1% last June, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.</p><p>Meanwhile, the labor market remains strong, which Scordels said would allow the Fed to suspend its rate hike until at least the end of 2023. But he added,<strong>It is even possible to rate hike again in June</strong>。</p><p>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said:</p><p>\"The Fed tends to cut interest rates in an average of nine months after the last rate hike. So let's just say that we think the first rate cut will come in early 2024.\" Scodels noted,<strong>The Fed's existence of \"institutional scar tissue (referring to overreacting to scenarios that are unlikely to happen again)\" also makes it unlikely that it will suddenly switch from 10 consecutive rate hike to rate cuts within two months.</strong>He noted that the Fed has made policy missteps over the past few decades. Stoval also said:</p><p>\"The Fed has been telling us that they don't want to make the mistakes of the late 1970s and early 1980s.\" At the time, policymakers believed they had controlled high inflation after the first round of rate hike and then began cutting interest rates, which triggered inflation to accelerate again. Stoval said:</p><p>\"They had to start a rate hike again. It was like a firefighter putting out a fire only to turn off the tap prematurely.\" The CFRA strategist said overheating inflation is upsetting the Fed and some investors are upset that interest rates remain elevated,<strong>Because the market is widely expected to slow economic growth and tighten credit after the banking crisis.</strong></p><p>Investors are also watching whether Congress will raise the debt ceiling, with a deadline coming as early as June 1.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO Dimon warned last week that failing to raise the debt ceiling in time \"could be disastrous\".</p><p>In the meantime,<strong>There will be plenty of data before the Fed meets again on June 13-14, including the PCE inflation data and the May nonfarm payrolls report</strong>。 Currently, traders expect a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at 5%-5.25% in June.</p><p>With so much data to digest, Scordels said,<strong>It's too early to say the Fed won't rate hike again next month</strong>。 He said:</p><p>\"For them, the bar for rate hike is high, but the bar for rate cuts is higher.\" Mr Scodels said,<strong>The factor that could drive interest rate cuts is the (rising) unemployment rate</strong>, which could come before the end of the year. Nothing, he believes, is more straightforward than a negative monthly employment report.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=112649&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd2c6160ba480cf7d52ca8a26057d61","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=112649&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2335860452","content_text":"通胀降温和银行业危机令市场押注美联储夏天开始降息，殊不知美联储存在“制度性疤痕组织”，这才是美联储不会快速转向的真正原因……分析师表示，美联储似乎准备让基准利率维持在多年来的最高水平，令期待今年夏天开始降息的投资者感到失望。截至上周五的联邦基金期货市场定价表明，交易员认为，政策制定者在7月26日的会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至4.75%-5%的可能性接近40%。在4月份通胀报告发布以及西太平洋合众银行等地区银行股再次遭遇抛售之后，过去一周，押注美联储7月降息的概率一度升至近50%。信托咨询服务公司美国经济主管斯科德尔斯（Mike Skordeles）在接受采访时表示：“我不认为降息的预期是错误的，但我反对对7月份降息的预期。”尽管通胀率在很大程度上继续呈下降趋势，在去年6月达到9.1%的峰值后，今年4月降至4.9%，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。与此同时，劳动力市场依然强劲，斯科德尔斯称，这将使美联储至少在2023年底之前暂停加息。不过他补充说，6月份甚至有可能再次加息。CFRA Research首席投资策略师斯托瓦尔（Sam Stovall）称：“美联储往往会在最后一次加息后的平均9个月内降息。所以我们只能说，我们认为第一次降息将在2024年初到来。”斯科德尔斯指出，美联储存在“制度性疤痕组织（指对不太可能再次发生的情况过度反应）”，这也使得它不太可能在两个月内从连续10次加息突然转向降息。他指出，美联储在过去几十年里曾出现过政策失误。斯托瓦尔也称：“美联储一直在告诉我们，他们不想犯上世纪70年代末和80年代初的错误。”当时政策制定者认为，在首轮加息后，他们已经控制住了高通胀，随后开始降息，这引发通胀再次加速。斯托瓦尔说：“他们不得不再次开始加息。这就像一名消防员正在扑灭一场大火，结果却过早地关掉了水龙头。”这位CFRA策略师表示，通胀过热令美联储感到不安，一些投资者则对利率维持在高位感到不安，因为市场普遍预期经济增长将放缓，且银行业危机后信贷将收紧。投资者也在关注国会是否会提高债务上限，最后期限最早将在6月1日到来。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙上周警告称，不及时提高债务上限“可能是灾难性的”。与此同时，在美联储6月13-14日再次召开会议之前，将有大量数据出炉，包括PCE通胀数据和5月非农就业报告。目前，交易员预计，美联储6月份将基准利率维持在5%-5.25%的可能性接近90%。斯科德尔斯说，有这么多数据需要消化，现在就断定美联储下个月不会再次加息还为时过早。他表示：“对他们来说，加息的门槛很高，但降息的门槛更高。”斯科德尔斯表示，可能推动降息的因素是失业率（上升），这可能会在今年年底前出现。他认为，没有什么比月度就业报告出现负值更简单明了的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656701121,"gmtCreate":1683941978064,"gmtModify":1683941978064,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656701121","repostId":"656269628","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":656269628,"gmtCreate":1683731681766,"gmtModify":1683731727397,"author":{"id":"4132120760765420","authorId":"4132120760765420","name":"764976d2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4132120760765420","idStr":"4132120760765420"},"themes":[],"title":"2023巴菲特股東大會重磅來襲","htmlText":"一年一度的“投資界春晚”伯克希爾·哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）年度股東大會於當地時間5月5日至5月7日，在“股神”沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的老家美國內布拉斯加州奧馬哈舉行。股東大會最受關注的問答環節從5月6日上午9時15分（北京時間5月6日晚10時15分）開始，一直持續了近6個小時。今年的問答環節分爲上下半場。上午場，93歲的巴菲特和他的老搭檔、伯克希爾副董事長、99歲的查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）以及60歲的伯克希爾副總裁格雷格·阿貝爾 (Greg Abel)、71歲的阿吉特·吉恩（Ajit Jain）共同出席回答問題，其中吉恩負責保險業務的問題，阿貝爾則負責所有其他問題；下午場則只有巴菲特和芒格兩人出席。在股東大會召開前，巴菲特還在邀請函中表示，去年他犯錯了，在一些問題上花了太多時間，導致回答的問題太少。今年他不會重蹈覆轍，總共可能會回答約60個問題。這是新冠疫情之後第二次在線下舉辦年度股東大會，也是巴菲特第59次參加冗長的問答環節。由於不再需要提供疫苗接種證明，本次參會人數顯著攀升，奧馬哈市中心的會場座無虛席。會前，關於美國經濟前景、銀行業危機、對中國經濟及股市的看法、對人工智能及新能源汽車的看法、以及近年來的投資動向等，成爲衆多投資人和粉絲們希望聽到股神回答的熱點話題。而在股東大會近6個小時的問答環節中，巴菲特和芒格就上述熱點話題一一做了詳細的回答。圖片美國銀行業危機與商業地產談及近期地區性銀行倒閉潮的後續發展，巴菲特認爲，銀行系統“不應該”出現問題，但是“可能會”，不過即便如此，存款人也不需要擔心自己的錢。 3月，聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）接管了轟然倒下的硅谷銀行，允許存款人得到全額保護。巴菲特在他的年度股東大會上說，如果監管機構沒有這樣做，後果將是災難性的。讓未受保險的存款人損失金錢將會“引發全國各地的銀行擠","listText":"一年一度的“投資界春晚”伯克希爾·哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）年度股東大會於當地時間5月5日至5月7日，在“股神”沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的老家美國內布拉斯加州奧馬哈舉行。股東大會最受關注的問答環節從5月6日上午9時15分（北京時間5月6日晚10時15分）開始，一直持續了近6個小時。今年的問答環節分爲上下半場。上午場，93歲的巴菲特和他的老搭檔、伯克希爾副董事長、99歲的查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）以及60歲的伯克希爾副總裁格雷格·阿貝爾 (Greg Abel)、71歲的阿吉特·吉恩（Ajit Jain）共同出席回答問題，其中吉恩負責保險業務的問題，阿貝爾則負責所有其他問題；下午場則只有巴菲特和芒格兩人出席。在股東大會召開前，巴菲特還在邀請函中表示，去年他犯錯了，在一些問題上花了太多時間，導致回答的問題太少。今年他不會重蹈覆轍，總共可能會回答約60個問題。這是新冠疫情之後第二次在線下舉辦年度股東大會，也是巴菲特第59次參加冗長的問答環節。由於不再需要提供疫苗接種證明，本次參會人數顯著攀升，奧馬哈市中心的會場座無虛席。會前，關於美國經濟前景、銀行業危機、對中國經濟及股市的看法、對人工智能及新能源汽車的看法、以及近年來的投資動向等，成爲衆多投資人和粉絲們希望聽到股神回答的熱點話題。而在股東大會近6個小時的問答環節中，巴菲特和芒格就上述熱點話題一一做了詳細的回答。圖片美國銀行業危機與商業地產談及近期地區性銀行倒閉潮的後續發展，巴菲特認爲，銀行系統“不應該”出現問題，但是“可能會”，不過即便如此，存款人也不需要擔心自己的錢。 3月，聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）接管了轟然倒下的硅谷銀行，允許存款人得到全額保護。巴菲特在他的年度股東大會上說，如果監管機構沒有這樣做，後果將是災難性的。讓未受保險的存款人損失金錢將會“引發全國各地的銀行擠","text":"一年一度的“投資界春晚”伯克希爾·哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）年度股東大會於當地時間5月5日至5月7日，在“股神”沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的老家美國內布拉斯加州奧馬哈舉行。股東大會最受關注的問答環節從5月6日上午9時15分（北京時間5月6日晚10時15分）開始，一直持續了近6個小時。今年的問答環節分爲上下半場。上午場，93歲的巴菲特和他的老搭檔、伯克希爾副董事長、99歲的查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）以及60歲的伯克希爾副總裁格雷格·阿貝爾 (Greg Abel)、71歲的阿吉特·吉恩（Ajit Jain）共同出席回答問題，其中吉恩負責保險業務的問題，阿貝爾則負責所有其他問題；下午場則只有巴菲特和芒格兩人出席。在股東大會召開前，巴菲特還在邀請函中表示，去年他犯錯了，在一些問題上花了太多時間，導致回答的問題太少。今年他不會重蹈覆轍，總共可能會回答約60個問題。這是新冠疫情之後第二次在線下舉辦年度股東大會，也是巴菲特第59次參加冗長的問答環節。由於不再需要提供疫苗接種證明，本次參會人數顯著攀升，奧馬哈市中心的會場座無虛席。會前，關於美國經濟前景、銀行業危機、對中國經濟及股市的看法、對人工智能及新能源汽車的看法、以及近年來的投資動向等，成爲衆多投資人和粉絲們希望聽到股神回答的熱點話題。而在股東大會近6個小時的問答環節中，巴菲特和芒格就上述熱點話題一一做了詳細的回答。圖片美國銀行業危機與商業地產談及近期地區性銀行倒閉潮的後續發展，巴菲特認爲，銀行系統“不應該”出現問題，但是“可能會”，不過即便如此，存款人也不需要擔心自己的錢。 3月，聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）接管了轟然倒下的硅谷銀行，允許存款人得到全額保護。巴菲特在他的年度股東大會上說，如果監管機構沒有這樣做，後果將是災難性的。讓未受保險的存款人損失金錢將會“引發全國各地的銀行擠","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a480bc407b413dbb47fb7fe4b8ce63e7","width":"1050","height":"1650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656269628","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656671326,"gmtCreate":1683701300466,"gmtModify":1683701300466,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656671326","repostId":"1167352152","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167352152","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683691426,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167352152?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-10 12:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reading Buffett: Oil Companies Enter the Era of Historic Scarcity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167352152","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国金证券认为，美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值，但油气企业开发意愿持续低下，更倾向于将利润分红，供给端将持续偏紧；另一边，随着需求复苏，全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。自去年年中开始回落的油价，可能会因稀缺","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Guojin Securities believes that the production of shale oil in the United States may approach the peak, but the willingness of oil and gas enterprises to develop continues to be low, and they are more inclined to distribute profits, and the supply side will continue to be tight; On the other hand, with the recovery of demand, there is a possibility of marginal increase in global oil demand.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Oil prices, which have fallen since the middle of last year, may rise again due to scarcity?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's shareholders' meeting, when talking about investing in Occidental Petroleum Company, Buffett admitted that he was optimistic about its resources and industry position in the permian Basin, believing that \"no other place in the United States can have as many oil reserves as the permian Basin\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the \"stock god\" also warned that the decline of shale oil wells is fast, and the output of the wells may be 12,000 to 15,000 barrels per day on the first day of opening, and it may be exhausted in a year or a year and a half.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this regard, Xu Junyi and Chen Lulou, analysts of Guojin Securities, also put forward similar views in their report on May 8th, \"Oil Enterprises Enter the Era of Historical Scarcity!\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guojin Securities believes that,<strong>U.S. shale oil production may approach its peak,</strong>However, the willingness of oil and gas enterprises to develop continues to be low, and they are more inclined to distribute profits, and the supply side will continue to be tight; On the other hand, with the recovery of demand, there is a possibility of marginal increase in global oil demand.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Insufficient effective capital expenditure</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After dismantling the oil and gas production cost, Guojin Securities found that the insufficient effective capital expenditure led to a low growth rate of physical workload, which was one of the core reasons why the growth rate of crude oil production in the United States was far lower than the market expectation:</p><p>In our statistics, the capital expenditure guidance for 2023 of 36 global key sample integrated oil companies and shale oil companies increased by 19% year-on-year, but the production guidance only increased by 4%. With reference to the difference between the capital expenditure guidance and the production guidance of oil and gas companies, as well as the wage increase in the United States and the increase in raw materials involved in oil and gas exploration,<strong>In 2023, there may be 15-20% inflation in oil and gas extraction costs, and U.S. crude oil production may continue to be lower than expected.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7feb70f24a993dae3fc5fc1aa6f7d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><p>At the same time, by splitting global crude oil capital expenditure and production expectations, we find that global crude oil capital expenditure is expected to increase by 13% in 2023 compared to 2022, with exploration capital expenditure increasing by 5%, development capital expenditure increasing by 14%,<strong>The expected growth rate of crude oil production in 2023 is only 3%, compared with the growth rate of global crude oil development capital expenditure of about 11%.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7266a231379216d1db6be2ea4a3995b3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7785029c02b2f504acfa3a1df4e5de4d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Under the impact of the pandemic, labor shortage and rising raw material costs have become restrictive factors for upstream development:</p><p>In the Dallas Fed's survey, the number of employees declined significantly after the epidemic in 2020, and the tight labor market drove the salary level of American workers to increase significantly. In 2022, the weekly salary increased by about 10% year-on-year, and in 2023Q1, the weekly salary increased by 7% year-on-year, and 4% compared with the average level in 2022. While the CPI index increased by 8% year-on-year in 2022, 6% year-on-year in 2023Q1, and 3% compared with the average level in 2022. The growth rate of workers' wages was higher than the CPI growth rate of consumer price index in the same period, which increased the production and labor costs of shale oil enterprises.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2a6364229e6c6f5b3754a05c4f5a3c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p>At the same time, the cost of some materials required for upstream development has increased sharply, such as tubular steel required for fracturing wells. From the perspective of PPI index, the PPI growth rate of cement and steel will remain in the range of 11-13% in 2022. The rising cost of upstream raw materials is also an important factor leading to serious inflation in upstream development, which limits the capacity of shale oil enterprises to increase production.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a97e801f9174011a23a4de0cd4191b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sinolink Securities pointed out that even when high energy inflation has eased, the physical workload improvement that capital expenditure can bring is still limited:</p><p>Although the capital expenditure budget of shale oil enterprises will still increase significantly in 2023 (about 23%), the increase in upstream development costs brought by the higher inflation level in the United States will lead to less than expected production growth. The crude oil production guidance of shale oil enterprises in 2023 will only increase by about 4% year-on-year compared with the crude oil production in 2022. This trend is seriously inconsistent with the upstream development cost inflation expected by shale oil enterprises. With reference to the Federal Reserve's forecast that the inflation rate will decline in 2023, combined with the incremental capital expenditure of U.S. shale oil companies and the incremental actual production guidance, we conservatively estimate that the inflation level of upstream development costs will remain at a high level of 15-20% in 2023, which will continue to limit the physical workload growth brought by the incremental capital expenditure.<h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Reducing leverage and improving shareholder returns become the first choice of shale oil enterprises</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the rise of crude oil prices in 2022, U.S. shale oil companies did not vigorously increase capital expenditures after a significant improvement in cash flow, but significantly reduced corporate leverage and improved shareholder returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guojin Securities believes that this phenomenon is mainly because shale oil companies are affected by the bankruptcy tide and long-term debts in 2020-2021, and their willingness to increase capital expenditure has weakened.</p><p>By sorting out the operating net cash flow and capital expenditure data of sample companies, it can be found that the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises has gone through about three stages: from 2013 to 2016, the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises far exceeded the net cash flow of operating activities of enterprises, and at this stage, oil enterprises pushed up the capital expenditure amount by adding leverage; From 2017 to 2019, the capital expenditure of oil companies at this stage was basically consistent with the net cash flow from operating activities of oil companies, and oil companies gradually relied on endogenous funds to maintain their annual capital expenditure; Since 2020, due to a series of impacts such as the epidemic, geopolitical problems and sluggish terminal consumption, the capital expenditure of oil companies has dropped sharply, and the proportion of capital expenditure in net cash flow from operating activities has dropped from about 109% in 2019 to 40% in 2022. Even if the global crude oil demand continues to improve and the oil price remains at a high level in 2022, the capital expenditure of shale oil companies will still increase at a limited rate and the willingness to spend is insufficient.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb18fe8b42caa34ffa62f300ae6e21e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The capital expenditure of upstream oil and gas enterprises is closely related to the trend of international oil prices, but in recent years, the proportion of capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises in net cash flow from operating activities has significantly deviated from crude oil prices.</p><p><strong>Oil prices have a significant impact on the overall revenue and profits of shale oil companies,</strong>When the oil price rises, it will directly increase the operating income and profits of shale oil companies, thus increasing the capital expenditure of oil companies. But in 2020-2022,<strong>There is a significant deviation between crude oil price and capital expenditure of upstream oil and gas enterprises</strong>Under the expectation of high oil prices and oil prices remaining high in 2021-2022, the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises has not increased significantly, or even fully recovered to the level before the pandemic, and the proportion of capital expenditure in the Company's net cash flow from operating activities has decreased year by year.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bee56e8cffcbdad69d6e9374b89e03c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>At the same time, shale oil companies were trapped by the repayment of long-term debts and the low oil price in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, there was a wave of shale oil bankruptcy, which combined with the difficulty of financing and the increase of financing costs or caused shale oil companies to tend to accelerate the speed of leverage reduction. In 2022, the asset-liability ratio of 23 sample shale oil companies decreased by 6pct year-on-year, which was 14pct lower than the high point of asset-liability ratio in 2020.<strong>Therefore, after the rise of oil prices promotes the abundance of net cash flow from operating activities of shale oil and gas enterprises, it is still the priority choice of shale oil enterprises to reduce leverage and improve shareholder returns.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e053fc72c65ef1daf375b3ef257db776\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5547e697bbf2a2e0b80a5804892dc0e9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7c1095949e92e19b50a0833272ebe6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Tight supply and recovery in demand</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, shale oil companies are weak in their willingness to increase production; on the other hand, OPEC announced production reduction, which jointly contributed to the tight supply of crude oil, while the measures taken by the United States and other parties to release strategic reserves to suppress oil prices almost failed:</p><p>OPEC + put forward additional voluntary production reduction plans under the scenario of declining crude oil prices, and the demand for high oil prices is more significant. At present, OPEC's crude oil exports have basically recovered to the pre-epidemic level in 2019. With OPEC's plan to maintain the crude oil production reduction quota of 2 million barrels per day and the latest additional voluntary production reduction by key oil producing countries from May to the end of 2023, OPEC's crude oil exports may decrease marginally.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5486d4032a3daf52847c35ad15373f4b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc9754e19db6c877aa3e1592cb70fa8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>Under the situation of continuous tight global crude oil supply and demand, the IEA and the United States have announced the release of crude oil. In 2022, Europe and the United States continued to restrain the rise of crude oil prices through joint release of crude oil. At the end of 2022, the IEA ended the release of crude oil, and the release of strategic crude oil stocks in the United States decreased. As of April 28, 2023, U.S. strategic inventories stood at just 364.94 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, and this release has now released 6.64 million barrels, leaving about 19 million barrels of room to release. The United States has ended the release of crude oil strategic inventory and turned it into replenishment, which may indicate that the United States has almost failed to release reserves and suppress oil prices in order to ensure national energy security.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344cade2c0c2ebe470bb87412b045b1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2365a824cbecb7474854f8d6c2823f18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, the overall overseas travel intensity continued to maintain a recovery trend:</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the travel index of Europe and the United States basically maintained or was higher than the level of the same period in 2021-2022. With the end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the expected recovery of demand, overseas crude oil demand may continue to maintain a relatively stable trend.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c723c3d9bf04f35c7b28dd42e67ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030421ac7ba8d72bdf28374a814df3ca\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491f0a3060f743dc5a366339362c0ab7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34001d6fb91d385a5cc30cfd8d9e101e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><p>At the same time, travel intensity recovered strongly after China's pandemic policy was liberalized. Up to now, China's travel index and China's air travel index have exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, only lower than that of 2021. The current \"May Day\" peak season has also greatly boosted the recovery of China's travel intensity. As the market demand continues to pick up, the demand of China's oil products market may increase significantly.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1c741f711c2cb75d12a2aac7311e07\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reading Buffett: Oil Companies Enter the Era of Historic Scarcity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReading Buffett: Oil Companies Enter the Era of Historic Scarcity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-10 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Guojin Securities believes that the production of shale oil in the United States may approach the peak, but the willingness of oil and gas enterprises to develop continues to be low, and they are more inclined to distribute profits, and the supply side will continue to be tight; On the other hand, with the recovery of demand, there is a possibility of marginal increase in global oil demand.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Oil prices, which have fallen since the middle of last year, may rise again due to scarcity?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's shareholders' meeting, when talking about investing in Occidental Petroleum Company, Buffett admitted that he was optimistic about its resources and industry position in the permian Basin, believing that \"no other place in the United States can have as many oil reserves as the permian Basin\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the \"stock god\" also warned that the decline of shale oil wells is fast, and the output of the wells may be 12,000 to 15,000 barrels per day on the first day of opening, and it may be exhausted in a year or a year and a half.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In this regard, Xu Junyi and Chen Lulou, analysts of Guojin Securities, also put forward similar views in their report on May 8th, \"Oil Enterprises Enter the Era of Historical Scarcity!\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guojin Securities believes that,<strong>U.S. shale oil production may approach its peak,</strong>However, the willingness of oil and gas enterprises to develop continues to be low, and they are more inclined to distribute profits, and the supply side will continue to be tight; On the other hand, with the recovery of demand, there is a possibility of marginal increase in global oil demand.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Insufficient effective capital expenditure</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After dismantling the oil and gas production cost, Guojin Securities found that the insufficient effective capital expenditure led to a low growth rate of physical workload, which was one of the core reasons why the growth rate of crude oil production in the United States was far lower than the market expectation:</p><p>In our statistics, the capital expenditure guidance for 2023 of 36 global key sample integrated oil companies and shale oil companies increased by 19% year-on-year, but the production guidance only increased by 4%. With reference to the difference between the capital expenditure guidance and the production guidance of oil and gas companies, as well as the wage increase in the United States and the increase in raw materials involved in oil and gas exploration,<strong>In 2023, there may be 15-20% inflation in oil and gas extraction costs, and U.S. crude oil production may continue to be lower than expected.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7feb70f24a993dae3fc5fc1aa6f7d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><p>At the same time, by splitting global crude oil capital expenditure and production expectations, we find that global crude oil capital expenditure is expected to increase by 13% in 2023 compared to 2022, with exploration capital expenditure increasing by 5%, development capital expenditure increasing by 14%,<strong>The expected growth rate of crude oil production in 2023 is only 3%, compared with the growth rate of global crude oil development capital expenditure of about 11%.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7266a231379216d1db6be2ea4a3995b3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7785029c02b2f504acfa3a1df4e5de4d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Under the impact of the pandemic, labor shortage and rising raw material costs have become restrictive factors for upstream development:</p><p>In the Dallas Fed's survey, the number of employees declined significantly after the epidemic in 2020, and the tight labor market drove the salary level of American workers to increase significantly. In 2022, the weekly salary increased by about 10% year-on-year, and in 2023Q1, the weekly salary increased by 7% year-on-year, and 4% compared with the average level in 2022. While the CPI index increased by 8% year-on-year in 2022, 6% year-on-year in 2023Q1, and 3% compared with the average level in 2022. The growth rate of workers' wages was higher than the CPI growth rate of consumer price index in the same period, which increased the production and labor costs of shale oil enterprises.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2a6364229e6c6f5b3754a05c4f5a3c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><p>At the same time, the cost of some materials required for upstream development has increased sharply, such as tubular steel required for fracturing wells. From the perspective of PPI index, the PPI growth rate of cement and steel will remain in the range of 11-13% in 2022. The rising cost of upstream raw materials is also an important factor leading to serious inflation in upstream development, which limits the capacity of shale oil enterprises to increase production.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a97e801f9174011a23a4de0cd4191b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sinolink Securities pointed out that even when high energy inflation has eased, the physical workload improvement that capital expenditure can bring is still limited:</p><p>Although the capital expenditure budget of shale oil enterprises will still increase significantly in 2023 (about 23%), the increase in upstream development costs brought by the higher inflation level in the United States will lead to less than expected production growth. The crude oil production guidance of shale oil enterprises in 2023 will only increase by about 4% year-on-year compared with the crude oil production in 2022. This trend is seriously inconsistent with the upstream development cost inflation expected by shale oil enterprises. With reference to the Federal Reserve's forecast that the inflation rate will decline in 2023, combined with the incremental capital expenditure of U.S. shale oil companies and the incremental actual production guidance, we conservatively estimate that the inflation level of upstream development costs will remain at a high level of 15-20% in 2023, which will continue to limit the physical workload growth brought by the incremental capital expenditure.<h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Reducing leverage and improving shareholder returns become the first choice of shale oil enterprises</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the rise of crude oil prices in 2022, U.S. shale oil companies did not vigorously increase capital expenditures after a significant improvement in cash flow, but significantly reduced corporate leverage and improved shareholder returns.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guojin Securities believes that this phenomenon is mainly because shale oil companies are affected by the bankruptcy tide and long-term debts in 2020-2021, and their willingness to increase capital expenditure has weakened.</p><p>By sorting out the operating net cash flow and capital expenditure data of sample companies, it can be found that the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises has gone through about three stages: from 2013 to 2016, the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises far exceeded the net cash flow of operating activities of enterprises, and at this stage, oil enterprises pushed up the capital expenditure amount by adding leverage; From 2017 to 2019, the capital expenditure of oil companies at this stage was basically consistent with the net cash flow from operating activities of oil companies, and oil companies gradually relied on endogenous funds to maintain their annual capital expenditure; Since 2020, due to a series of impacts such as the epidemic, geopolitical problems and sluggish terminal consumption, the capital expenditure of oil companies has dropped sharply, and the proportion of capital expenditure in net cash flow from operating activities has dropped from about 109% in 2019 to 40% in 2022. Even if the global crude oil demand continues to improve and the oil price remains at a high level in 2022, the capital expenditure of shale oil companies will still increase at a limited rate and the willingness to spend is insufficient.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb18fe8b42caa34ffa62f300ae6e21e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The capital expenditure of upstream oil and gas enterprises is closely related to the trend of international oil prices, but in recent years, the proportion of capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises in net cash flow from operating activities has significantly deviated from crude oil prices.</p><p><strong>Oil prices have a significant impact on the overall revenue and profits of shale oil companies,</strong>When the oil price rises, it will directly increase the operating income and profits of shale oil companies, thus increasing the capital expenditure of oil companies. But in 2020-2022,<strong>There is a significant deviation between crude oil price and capital expenditure of upstream oil and gas enterprises</strong>Under the expectation of high oil prices and oil prices remaining high in 2021-2022, the capital expenditure of shale oil enterprises has not increased significantly, or even fully recovered to the level before the pandemic, and the proportion of capital expenditure in the Company's net cash flow from operating activities has decreased year by year.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bee56e8cffcbdad69d6e9374b89e03c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p>At the same time, shale oil companies were trapped by the repayment of long-term debts and the low oil price in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, there was a wave of shale oil bankruptcy, which combined with the difficulty of financing and the increase of financing costs or caused shale oil companies to tend to accelerate the speed of leverage reduction. In 2022, the asset-liability ratio of 23 sample shale oil companies decreased by 6pct year-on-year, which was 14pct lower than the high point of asset-liability ratio in 2020.<strong>Therefore, after the rise of oil prices promotes the abundance of net cash flow from operating activities of shale oil and gas enterprises, it is still the priority choice of shale oil enterprises to reduce leverage and improve shareholder returns.</strong><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e053fc72c65ef1daf375b3ef257db776\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5547e697bbf2a2e0b80a5804892dc0e9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7c1095949e92e19b50a0833272ebe6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Tight supply and recovery in demand</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the one hand, shale oil companies are weak in their willingness to increase production; on the other hand, OPEC announced production reduction, which jointly contributed to the tight supply of crude oil, while the measures taken by the United States and other parties to release strategic reserves to suppress oil prices almost failed:</p><p>OPEC + put forward additional voluntary production reduction plans under the scenario of declining crude oil prices, and the demand for high oil prices is more significant. At present, OPEC's crude oil exports have basically recovered to the pre-epidemic level in 2019. With OPEC's plan to maintain the crude oil production reduction quota of 2 million barrels per day and the latest additional voluntary production reduction by key oil producing countries from May to the end of 2023, OPEC's crude oil exports may decrease marginally.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5486d4032a3daf52847c35ad15373f4b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc9754e19db6c877aa3e1592cb70fa8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><p>Under the situation of continuous tight global crude oil supply and demand, the IEA and the United States have announced the release of crude oil. In 2022, Europe and the United States continued to restrain the rise of crude oil prices through joint release of crude oil. At the end of 2022, the IEA ended the release of crude oil, and the release of strategic crude oil stocks in the United States decreased. As of April 28, 2023, U.S. strategic inventories stood at just 364.94 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, and this release has now released 6.64 million barrels, leaving about 19 million barrels of room to release. The United States has ended the release of crude oil strategic inventory and turned it into replenishment, which may indicate that the United States has almost failed to release reserves and suppress oil prices in order to ensure national energy security.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344cade2c0c2ebe470bb87412b045b1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2365a824cbecb7474854f8d6c2823f18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, the overall overseas travel intensity continued to maintain a recovery trend:</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, the travel index of Europe and the United States basically maintained or was higher than the level of the same period in 2021-2022. With the end of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the expected recovery of demand, overseas crude oil demand may continue to maintain a relatively stable trend.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c723c3d9bf04f35c7b28dd42e67ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030421ac7ba8d72bdf28374a814df3ca\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491f0a3060f743dc5a366339362c0ab7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34001d6fb91d385a5cc30cfd8d9e101e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><p>At the same time, travel intensity recovered strongly after China's pandemic policy was liberalized. Up to now, China's travel index and China's air travel index have exceeded the level of the same period in 2019, only lower than that of 2021. The current \"May Day\" peak season has also greatly boosted the recovery of China's travel intensity. As the market demand continues to pick up, the demand of China's oil products market may increase significantly.<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1c741f711c2cb75d12a2aac7311e07\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688307\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688307","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1167352152","content_text":"国金证券认为，美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值，但油气企业开发意愿持续低下，更倾向于将利润分红，供给端将持续偏紧；另一边，随着需求复苏，全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。自去年年中开始回落的油价，可能会因稀缺而再度上涨？在今年的股东大会上，谈及投资西方石油公司，巴菲特坦言看好其在二叠纪盆地的资源和行业地位，认为美国“没有其他地方可以像二叠纪盆地（permian）一样有这么多石油储备”。但“股神”同时也发出警告：页岩油井的衰败很快，开井第一天可能产量1.2万至1.5万桶/日，也许一年或者一年半就枯竭了。对此，国金证券分析师许隽逸、陈律楼在5月8日的报告《油企迈入历史性稀缺时代！》中也提出了类似的观点。国金证券认为，美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值，但油气企业开发意愿持续低下，更倾向于将利润分红，供给端将持续偏紧；另一边，随着需求复苏，全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。有效资本开支不足拆解油气生产成本后，国金证券发现，有效资本开支不足导致实物工作量增速维持较低水平，是美国原油产量增速远低于市场预期的核心原因之一：我们统计的 36 家全球重点样本综合油企和页岩油企业 2023 年资本开支指引同比增长 19%，但产量指引仅增加了 4%，参考油气企业资本开支指引与产量指引的差额以及美国工资增幅及油气开采涉及原料涨幅，2023 年油气开采成本或还有 15-20%的通胀，美国原油产量或将继续低于预期。与此同时，通过对全球原油资本开支和产量预期的拆分，我们发现 2023 年预计全球原油资本开支相比 2022 年增长 13%，其中勘探类资本开支增长 5%，开发类资本开支增长14%，而原油 2023 年产量预计增速仅为 3%，相较于全球原油开发类资本开支增速约为 11%的差额。疫情冲击下劳动力短缺、原材料成本上涨成为上游开发的限制性因素：在达拉斯联储的调研中，2020年疫情后员工数量出现显著下滑，偏紧的劳动力市场推动美国工人薪酬水平大幅提升，2022 年每周工资同比上升约 10%，2023Q1 每周工资同比增加 7%，较 2022 年平均水平增加 4%，而 2022 年 CPI 指数同比增加 8%，2023Q1 同比增加 6%，较 2022 年平均水平增加 3%，工人工资增速高于同期消费者价格指数 CPI 增速水平，增加了页岩油企业的生产用工成本。与此同时，上游开发所需要的部分物料成本大幅上涨，如压裂井所需要的管状钢等，从PPI 指数来看，2022 年水泥、钢铁 PPI 增速均保持在 11-13%的范围区间，上游原材料成本上涨也是导致上游开发通胀严重的重要因素，限制了页岩油企业增产能力。国金证券指出，即使在高能源通胀情况有所缓解的情况下，资本开支所能带来的实物工作量提升仍有限：虽然 2023 年页岩油企业资本开支预算仍有较大增幅（约 23%），但是美国较高通胀水平带来上游开发成本上升将导致产量增长不及预期，页岩油企业 2023 年原油产量指引较 2022 年原油产量同比增幅仅为 4%左右，这一趋势与页岩油企业预计上游开发成本通胀严重不相符。参考美联储预测 2023 年通货膨胀率有所回落，结合美国页岩油企业资本开支增量及实际产量指引增量，我们保守估计 2023 年上游开发成本通胀水平仍将保持在 15-20%的较高水平，将持续限制资本开支增量带来的实物工作量增长。降杠杆、提高股东回报成为页岩油企业首要选择伴随着2022年原油价格的上涨，美国页岩油企业在现金流显著改善后并未大力增加资本开支，而是大幅降低企业杠杆，以及提高股东回报。国金证券认为，这一现象主要因为页岩油企受到2020-2021年破产潮以及长期债务的影响，增加资本开支的意愿减弱。通过对样本公司的经营性净现金流以及资本开支数据的整理可以发现，页岩油企业资本开支经历了约 3 个阶段：2013-2016 年期间，页岩油企业资本开支远超企业经营活动现金流净额，该阶段油企通过加杠杆推高资本开支金额；2017-2019 年，该阶段油企资本开支与油企经营活动现金流净额基本一致，油企逐步依靠内生性资金维持每年的资本开支；自 2020 年以后，受疫情、地缘局势问题、终端消费低迷等一系列影响，油企资本开支大幅下滑，资本开支在经营活动现金流净额占比从 2019 年的 109%左右下滑至 2022 年40%区间，即使 2022 年全球原油需求持续改善以及油价维持较高水平，页岩油企资本开支依然增幅有限，开支意愿不足。上游油气企业资本开支与国际油价走势密切相关，但近几年页岩油企业资本开支在经营活动现金流净额的占比与原油价格出现显著背离。油价对页岩油企业的整体收入和利润影响显著，当油价上涨时，将直接增加页岩油企业的营业收入和利润，进而增加油企的资本开支。但 2020-2022 年，原油价格与上游油气企业资本开支出现较为显著的背离情景，在 2021-2022 年高油价以及油价维持高位的预期下，页岩油企业资本开支并未出现显著的增长，甚至并未完全恢复疫情前水平，且资本开支在公司经营活动现金流净额占比逐年降低。同时，页岩油企受困于偿还长期债务与 2020 年低油价影响，2020-2021 年出现了页岩油破产潮，叠加融资难度及融资成本的上升或导致页岩油企业倾向于加快降杠杆速度，2022年23家样本页岩油企业资产负债率同比减少6pct，较2020年资产负债率高点减少14pct。因此，在油价上涨推动页岩油气企业经营活动现金流净额的充裕后，降杠杆，提高股东回报目前依然是页岩油企业优先选择。供给偏紧 需求复苏一方面，页岩油企增产意愿薄弱，另一方面，OPEC宣布减产，共同促成了原油供给偏紧的结果，而美国等方面为压制油价而释放战略储备的措施几乎失效：OPEC+在原油价格出现下滑情景下提出额外自愿减产计划，高油价诉求较为显著。当前 OPEC 原油对外出口量基本恢复至 2019 年疫情前水平，伴随 OPEC 计划维持 200万桶/天的原油减产配额及最新重点产油国自 5 月起至 2023 年年底的额外自愿减产，OPEC 原油出口或边际减少。在全球原油供需持续偏紧情景下，IEA 和美国纷纷宣布释储，2022 年欧美持续通过联合释储抑制原油价格上涨，2022 年年底 IEA 结束释储，美国原油战略库存释储数量减少。截至 2023 年 4 月 28 日，美国战略库存仅为 364.94百万桶，处于 1983 年以来最低水平，此次释储目前已释放 664 万桶，仍有约 1900 万桶释储空间。美国结束原油战略库存的释储并转为补库，或说明美国为保障国家能源安全，释储压制油价的手段几乎失效。与此同时，整体海外出行强度持续维持复苏趋势：2023 年第一季度欧美出行指数基本维持或高于 2021-2022 年同期水平，伴随美联储加息结束，需求预期回暖，海外原油需求或将持续维持较为稳健的态势。与此同时，中国疫情政策放开后，出行强度强劲复苏。截至目前中国出行指数、中国航空出行指数已超过 2019 年同期水平，仅低于 2021 年。当前“五一”旺季也极大程度提振了中国出行强度复苏，伴随市场需求持续回暖，中国油品市场需求或将出现显著增量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656831646,"gmtCreate":1683563194687,"gmtModify":1683563194687,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤣……","listText":"🤣……","text":"🤣……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656831646","repostId":"1115197783","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115197783","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1683536210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115197783?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-08 16:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Five large-cap stocks look at the ups and downs, and U.S. stocks release red signals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115197783","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"衡量价格上涨和下降的股票数量比的市场宽度已降至三年来最低水平。以史为鉴，过去四十年里，每次市场宽度大幅缩窄后，美股都会经历一次大跌。科技股的王者归来，可能掩盖了美股存在的隐患。今年迄今，微软、苹果、亚","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The width of the market, which measures the number-of-stocks ratio of rising and falling prices, has fallen to its lowest level in three years. Taking history as a mirror, in the past four decades, every time the market width has narrowed sharply, U.S. stocks have experienced a sharp drop.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The return of the king of technology stocks may cover up the hidden dangers of US stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So far this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet, Meta Technology rose 18%-39%, 2-4 times the S&P 500's gains.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/345a088ca7f5c1a213f6ff29c570ec18\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Given the size of the Big 5, if these stocks are excluded, the S&P 500 components of the remaining 495 companies don't perform well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the meantime,<strong>Market Breadth, a measure of the ratio of stocks whose prices are rising to the number of stocks whose prices are falling, has intensified the contraction and is now at its lowest level in three years</strong>。 Taking history as a mirror,<strong>Over the past four decades, U.S. stocks have experienced a sharp drop every time the market width has narrowed sharply.</strong></p><p><strong>Market width intensifies contraction with serious consequences</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A week ago,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Raise its alert level for a record collapse in market width to 11.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the time, David Kostin, the bank's chief equity strategist, wrote: \"The recent sharp narrowing of market breadth indicates an elevated risk of divestment.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Société Générale</a>A similar warning was issued.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin looked at the recent performance of Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon,<strong>Discover These 5 Stocks Represent 89% of the S&P 500's YTD Returns</strong>And warned that,<strong>For the first time since 2020, the market width contracted below the average standard deviation of one percentage point.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff9fa3694a1ce7b371dbadabc409584\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The strategist then reviewed the historical performance,<strong>It is found that after each sharp narrowing of market width since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp drop of similar magnitude, followed by below-average returns and a larger peak-to-trough pullback, with a median 6-month return of-11%.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1211b55643c0bfd6636eb02f429371e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Actually,<strong>Since Goldman Sachs issued its first warning, the market width has become narrower and the problem has been worse.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since last week, all large technology stocks except Amazon have continued to rise. According to a report released earlier by Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner, the market capitalization of the two largest technology giants, Apple and Microsoft, in the S&P 500 is increasing parabolically.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1824824a8e1e62b8eca6456f69d85c80\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As a result, for the second time in a row, Kostin has issued a warning in its weekly Kickstart report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the new report, Kostin goes straight to the point,<strong>Overall mega-cap tech stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 23% this year, and they account for the lion's share of the index's 6% returns.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ae6b3ce60bc9f2fbe02555b3c6f1b6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since this year,<strong>The top 5 tech stocks are returning between 19%-94% and 29% overall</strong>。 Due to strong returns, the market value of large tech stocks has risen.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin wrote,<strong>The weighting of big tech stocks in the S&P 500 has rebounded from 18% in December to 22%,</strong>Still below the 25% high reached in August 2020, though.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d723c455b62a38e514f5a2ba2f80bd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"162\"/></p><p><strong>Big tech stocks a safe haven as recession risks mount?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From a micro perspective, Kostin said,<strong>The rally in large-cap tech stocks was largely driven by an improved fundamental outlook.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During 2022, analysts lowered their 2023 EPS forecasts for Big Tech companies by an average of 27% due to weaker post-pandemic growth. However, they beat market expectations in the first quarter of this year, with upward revisions to earnings per share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, while the gap between sales growth for big tech companies and all of the index's components has narrowed between 2021 and 2022, analysts expect the gap to widen even further.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From 2013 to 2019, the average annual sales growth rate for big tech companies was 15%, compared to just 4% for the S&P 500, a difference of 11 percentage points. But from 2021 to 2022, that gap narrowed to 2 percentage points as sales growth accelerated across all component companies of the index.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking ahead,<strong>Goldman Sachs believes the gap to the index is expected to widen to 5 percentage points, although annual sales growth for giant tech stocks is expected to slow from 2023 to 2025.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9089258b576ebc7b2b64b0ab1a8be3d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin also believes that the long-term prospects of large-cap tech stocks could benefit from advances in AI technology.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs estimates,<strong>AI could drive global economic growth by about $7 trillion over the next 10 years</strong>, and estimates that the total market size of generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) software will reach $150 billion. Of all the tech stocks, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are most likely to benefit.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Higher margins could be another reason why big-cap tech stocks outperform.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs calculations, the combined net profit margin of big tech stocks over the past five years averaged 20.2%, compared to 10.9% for all component companies in the S&P 500, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. In 2022, large-cap tech margins were 7.8 percentage points higher than all S&P 500 components, but Goldman Sachs believes that large-cap tech margins bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year, and the gap between the two is expected to widen to 8.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c54bc9c6497ecebe3c8ae5015723736\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Notably, high margins mean stronger cash flow, helping the company invest further for long-term growth while also returning cash to shareholders. According to statistics, in 2022, capital expenditure and R&D accounted for 57% of the cash expenditure of large technology stocks, while the share of repurchases increased from 14% in 2012 to 36%. The scale of R&D and repurchase expenditure accounted for 26% and 24% of all component companies of S&P 500, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to the above factors,<strong>The recent macro environment has also supported the stock prices of tech giants.</strong>While the Fed's ongoing rate hike continues to form a squeeze on tech stocks, given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>As the industry crisis escalated, economic growth slowed significantly, U.S. bond yields declined, and more and more investors turned to large-cap technology stocks and other high-quality stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Kostin,<strong>Amid renewed recession scares, investors are viewing stocks in large-cap tech stocks as economically defensive.</strong></p><p><strong>What will happen to U.S. stocks this time?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The key question is, to what extent will the plunge in market width impact the whole U.S. stock market? When will the volcano erupt?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Kostin warned last week that the market breadth collapse would end in tragedy, but this time he went on to explain that it could take a long time to happen.</strong></p><p>If the current environment of lower-than-trend economy and lower (U.S. bond) yields persists, super-cap tech companies may maintain their valuation premiums and continue to outperform the broader market.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The P/E of super-cap tech companies now stands at 25 times, a 49 percent premium to the other components of the S&P 500 and the 51st percentile of all time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be8a8e7b418e12e4a25ef5bd65b03b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin expects recession risks will eventually fade and interest rates will continue to rise in his baseline forecast \"soft landing\" scenario, an environment in which large-cap tech stocks may underperform smaller, more cyclical stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But the market clearly disagrees, and the current pricing in the futures market shows<strong>, Federal Funds rate will cut a total of 100 basis points by the end of the year, while Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will not cut interest rates before the end of the year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Either way, it's safe to assume that tech giant stocks could take a bigger hit than others if interest rates rise.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Giant tech stocks will continue to be viewed as defensive stocks if the U.S. economy steps into recession and yields fall, at which point the Big 5 tech stocks will push the broader market to new heights. There's also the possibility that the economy is growing below expectations or even stepping into a recession, and investors could scale back their equity exposure across the board, which could weigh on big tech stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Big-cap tech stocks are among the most popular long positions for hedge funds, but they also bear the brunt during risk-averse events, with funds typically selling off more popular and liquid stocks first.</strong>In the VIP portfolio of Goldman Sachs hedge fund, all 5 large-cap tech stocks are in the top 10 long positions.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Five large-cap stocks look at the ups and downs, and U.S. stocks release red signals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFive large-cap stocks look at the ups and downs, and U.S. stocks release red signals\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-08 16:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The width of the market, which measures the number-of-stocks ratio of rising and falling prices, has fallen to its lowest level in three years. Taking history as a mirror, in the past four decades, every time the market width has narrowed sharply, U.S. stocks have experienced a sharp drop.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The return of the king of technology stocks may cover up the hidden dangers of US stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So far this year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent companies Alphabet, Meta Technology rose 18%-39%, 2-4 times the S&P 500's gains.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/345a088ca7f5c1a213f6ff29c570ec18\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Given the size of the Big 5, if these stocks are excluded, the S&P 500 components of the remaining 495 companies don't perform well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the meantime,<strong>Market Breadth, a measure of the ratio of stocks whose prices are rising to the number of stocks whose prices are falling, has intensified the contraction and is now at its lowest level in three years</strong>。 Taking history as a mirror,<strong>Over the past four decades, U.S. stocks have experienced a sharp drop every time the market width has narrowed sharply.</strong></p><p><strong>Market width intensifies contraction with serious consequences</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A week ago,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Raise its alert level for a record collapse in market width to 11.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the time, David Kostin, the bank's chief equity strategist, wrote: \"The recent sharp narrowing of market breadth indicates an elevated risk of divestment.\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">Société Générale</a>A similar warning was issued.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin looked at the recent performance of Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon,<strong>Discover These 5 Stocks Represent 89% of the S&P 500's YTD Returns</strong>And warned that,<strong>For the first time since 2020, the market width contracted below the average standard deviation of one percentage point.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ff9fa3694a1ce7b371dbadabc409584\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The strategist then reviewed the historical performance,<strong>It is found that after each sharp narrowing of market width since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp drop of similar magnitude, followed by below-average returns and a larger peak-to-trough pullback, with a median 6-month return of-11%.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1211b55643c0bfd6636eb02f429371e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Actually,<strong>Since Goldman Sachs issued its first warning, the market width has become narrower and the problem has been worse.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since last week, all large technology stocks except Amazon have continued to rise. According to a report released earlier by Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner, the market capitalization of the two largest technology giants, Apple and Microsoft, in the S&P 500 is increasing parabolically.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1824824a8e1e62b8eca6456f69d85c80\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As a result, for the second time in a row, Kostin has issued a warning in its weekly Kickstart report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the new report, Kostin goes straight to the point,<strong>Overall mega-cap tech stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 23% this year, and they account for the lion's share of the index's 6% returns.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ae6b3ce60bc9f2fbe02555b3c6f1b6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"343\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since this year,<strong>The top 5 tech stocks are returning between 19%-94% and 29% overall</strong>。 Due to strong returns, the market value of large tech stocks has risen.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin wrote,<strong>The weighting of big tech stocks in the S&P 500 has rebounded from 18% in December to 22%,</strong>Still below the 25% high reached in August 2020, though.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d723c455b62a38e514f5a2ba2f80bd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"162\"/></p><p><strong>Big tech stocks a safe haven as recession risks mount?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From a micro perspective, Kostin said,<strong>The rally in large-cap tech stocks was largely driven by an improved fundamental outlook.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During 2022, analysts lowered their 2023 EPS forecasts for Big Tech companies by an average of 27% due to weaker post-pandemic growth. However, they beat market expectations in the first quarter of this year, with upward revisions to earnings per share.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, while the gap between sales growth for big tech companies and all of the index's components has narrowed between 2021 and 2022, analysts expect the gap to widen even further.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From 2013 to 2019, the average annual sales growth rate for big tech companies was 15%, compared to just 4% for the S&P 500, a difference of 11 percentage points. But from 2021 to 2022, that gap narrowed to 2 percentage points as sales growth accelerated across all component companies of the index.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking ahead,<strong>Goldman Sachs believes the gap to the index is expected to widen to 5 percentage points, although annual sales growth for giant tech stocks is expected to slow from 2023 to 2025.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9089258b576ebc7b2b64b0ab1a8be3d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin also believes that the long-term prospects of large-cap tech stocks could benefit from advances in AI technology.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Goldman Sachs estimates,<strong>AI could drive global economic growth by about $7 trillion over the next 10 years</strong>, and estimates that the total market size of generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) software will reach $150 billion. Of all the tech stocks, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are most likely to benefit.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Higher margins could be another reason why big-cap tech stocks outperform.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Goldman Sachs calculations, the combined net profit margin of big tech stocks over the past five years averaged 20.2%, compared to 10.9% for all component companies in the S&P 500, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. In 2022, large-cap tech margins were 7.8 percentage points higher than all S&P 500 components, but Goldman Sachs believes that large-cap tech margins bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year, and the gap between the two is expected to widen to 8.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c54bc9c6497ecebe3c8ae5015723736\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Notably, high margins mean stronger cash flow, helping the company invest further for long-term growth while also returning cash to shareholders. According to statistics, in 2022, capital expenditure and R&D accounted for 57% of the cash expenditure of large technology stocks, while the share of repurchases increased from 14% in 2012 to 36%. The scale of R&D and repurchase expenditure accounted for 26% and 24% of all component companies of S&P 500, respectively.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition to the above factors,<strong>The recent macro environment has also supported the stock prices of tech giants.</strong>While the Fed's ongoing rate hike continues to form a squeeze on tech stocks, given<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>As the industry crisis escalated, economic growth slowed significantly, U.S. bond yields declined, and more and more investors turned to large-cap technology stocks and other high-quality stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Kostin,<strong>Amid renewed recession scares, investors are viewing stocks in large-cap tech stocks as economically defensive.</strong></p><p><strong>What will happen to U.S. stocks this time?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The key question is, to what extent will the plunge in market width impact the whole U.S. stock market? When will the volcano erupt?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Kostin warned last week that the market breadth collapse would end in tragedy, but this time he went on to explain that it could take a long time to happen.</strong></p><p>If the current environment of lower-than-trend economy and lower (U.S. bond) yields persists, super-cap tech companies may maintain their valuation premiums and continue to outperform the broader market.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The P/E of super-cap tech companies now stands at 25 times, a 49 percent premium to the other components of the S&P 500 and the 51st percentile of all time.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be8a8e7b418e12e4a25ef5bd65b03b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"349\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kostin expects recession risks will eventually fade and interest rates will continue to rise in his baseline forecast \"soft landing\" scenario, an environment in which large-cap tech stocks may underperform smaller, more cyclical stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But the market clearly disagrees, and the current pricing in the futures market shows<strong>, Federal Funds rate will cut a total of 100 basis points by the end of the year, while Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will not cut interest rates before the end of the year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Either way, it's safe to assume that tech giant stocks could take a bigger hit than others if interest rates rise.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Giant tech stocks will continue to be viewed as defensive stocks if the U.S. economy steps into recession and yields fall, at which point the Big 5 tech stocks will push the broader market to new heights. There's also the possibility that the economy is growing below expectations or even stepping into a recession, and investors could scale back their equity exposure across the board, which could weigh on big tech stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Big-cap tech stocks are among the most popular long positions for hedge funds, but they also bear the brunt during risk-averse events, with funds typically selling off more popular and liquid stocks first.</strong>In the VIP portfolio of Goldman Sachs hedge fund, all 5 large-cap tech stocks are in the top 10 long positions.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115197783","content_text":"衡量价格上涨和下降的股票数量比的市场宽度已降至三年来最低水平。以史为鉴，过去四十年里，每次市场宽度大幅缩窄后，美股都会经历一次大跌。科技股的王者归来，可能掩盖了美股存在的隐患。今年迄今，微软、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌母公司Alphabet、Meta科技上涨了18%-39%，是标普500指数涨幅的2-4倍。鉴于5大巨头的体量，如果剔除这些股票，剩下495家公司的标普500成分股表现并不理想。与此同时，衡量价格上涨的股票和价格下降的股票数量之比的市场宽度（Market Breadth）加剧收缩，目前已降至三年来最低水平。以史为鉴，过去四十年里，每次市场宽度大幅缩窄后，美股都会经历一次大跌。市场宽度加剧收缩，后果很严重一周前，高盛将其市场宽度创纪录崩塌的警戒级别提高至11级。当时，该行首席股票策略师David Kostin写道：“最近市场宽度的急剧缩窄表明，撤资风险上升。”摩根大通和法国兴业银行也发出了类似警告。Kostin观察了Alphabet、苹果、微软、Meta和亚马逊近期的表现，发现这5只股票占标普500指数今年迄今回报的89%，并警告称，自2020年以来，市场宽度首次收缩至一个百分点平均标准差的以下水平。这位策略师随后回顾了历史表现，发现自1980年以来，市场宽度每次出现大幅缩窄后，标普500指数都经历了类似幅度的大跌，随后回报率低于平均水平，峰谷回调幅度更大，6个月回报率中位数为-11%。实际上，自高盛发出第一次警告以来，市场宽度变得更窄，问题更加严重。上周以来，除了亚马逊以外，所有大型科技股股价继续上涨，根据高盛分析师Scott Rubner稍早前发布的报告，最大的两个科技巨头苹果和微软市值占标普500的权重正在呈抛物线增加。因此，Kostin连续第二次在其周度Kickstart报告中发出警告。在新的报告中，Kostin开门见山地指出，今年以来超大型科技股的整体表现比标普500指数高了23%，在该指数6%的回报中，它们占了最大份额。今年以来，5大科技股的回报率在19%-94%之间，整体回报率为29%。由于回报给力，大型科技股的市值水涨船高。Kostin写道，大型科技股在标普500指数中的权重已从去年12月的18%反弹，目前达到22%，不过仍低于2020年8月达到的25%的高点。经济衰退风险加剧，大型科技股成为避风港？Kostin表示，从微观角度来看，大型股科技股的上涨主要是由基本面前景改善推动的。2022年期间，由于后疫情时代增长疲软，分析师将大型科技公司2023年每股收益预测平均下调了27%。然而，今年一季度它们的业绩好于市场预期，每股收益向上修正。与此同时，尽管2021年至2022年间，大型科技公司的销售增长与指数所有成分公司之间的差距有所缩小，但分析师预计这一差距将进一步扩大。从2013年到2019年，大型科技公司的平均年销售增长率为15%，而标准普尔500指数仅为4%，增速相差11个百分点。但从2021年到2022年，随着该指数所有成分公司销售增长加速，这一差距缩窄至2个百分点。展望未来，高盛认为，尽管2023年至2025年巨型科技股的年度销售增长预计将放缓，但与指数的差距预计将扩大至5个百分点。Kostin还认为，大型科技股的长期前景可能受益于AI技术的进步。高盛估计，AI可能会在未来10年内推动全球经济增长约7万亿美元，并估计生成式人工智能（AIGC）软件的市场总规模将达到1500亿美元。所有科技股中，微软、谷歌、亚马逊和Meta最可能从中受益。更高的利润率可能是大型科技股表现出色的另一个原因。据高盛计算，大型科技股过去五年的总净利润率平均为20.2%，相比之下，标普500指数所有成分公司的利润率为10.9%，两者相差9.3个百分点。2022年，大型科技股的利润率比标普500所有成分公司高7.8个百分点，但高盛认为，大型科技股的利润率已去年第四季度触底，两者差距预计在今年第四季度扩大到8.1个百分点。值得注意的是，高利润率意味着更强劲的现金流，有助于公司进一步投资实现长期增长，同时也向股东返还现金。据统计，2022年，资本支出和研发占大型科技股现金支出的57%，回购占比则从2012 年的14%增长到36%，研发和回购支出规模分别占标普500所有成分公司的26%和24%。除以上因素以外，最近的宏观环境也对科技巨头股价形成支撑。虽然美联储的持续加息仍对科技股形成挤压，但鉴于美国银行业危机升级，经济增长显著放缓，美债收益率下降，越来越多投资者转向大型科技股和其他优质股。按照Kostin的说法，在经济衰退恐慌重燃的情况下，投资者将大型科技股的股票视为经济防御性股票。这次，美股会发生什么？关键问题是，市场宽度骤降会给整个美股带来何种程度的冲击？火山什么时候会爆发？Kostin上周警告称，市场宽度的崩溃将以悲剧收场，但这一次他接着解释称，这可能需要很长时间才能发生。 如果当前经济经济低于趋势和（美债）收益率下降的环境持续下去，超级市值科技公司可能会保持其估值溢价，并继续跑赢大盘。超级市值科技公司目前的市盈率为25倍，比标普500指数的其他成分股溢价49%，位列历史的第51个百分位。Kostin预计，在他的基线预测“软着陆”情景中，衰退风险最终将会消退，利率将会继续上升，在这种环境下，大型科技股的表现可能会逊于规模较小、更具周期性的股票。但市场显然不同意这种看法，期货市场目前的定价显示，截至年底，联邦基金利率总共将下调100个基点，而高盛则预测美联储年底前不会降息。无论如何，可以肯定的是，如果利率上升，科技巨头股票可能会比其他公司遭受更大的冲击。如果美国经济步入衰退和收益率下跌，巨型科技股将继续被视为防御股，届时五大科技股将推动大盘升至新的高度。还有一种可能性，即经济增长低于预期，甚至是步入衰退，投资者可能会全面缩减股票风险敞口，这可能会对大型科技股构成压力。大型科技股是最受对冲基金欢迎的多头仓位之一，但在风险规避事件期间，这些股票也首当其冲，基金通常会首先抛售更受欢迎、流动性更强的股票。在高盛对冲基金的VIP投资组合中，5只大型科技股全部位列多头仓位前10。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"META":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656181644,"gmtCreate":1683524322689,"gmtModify":1683524322689,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656181644","repostId":"2333473194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2333473194","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"民间投资共享平台——汇集投资高手，发现投资好点子。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"阿尔法工场研究院","id":"1026500124","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a"},"pubTimestamp":1683519742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2333473194?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-08 12:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opinion | Why can't Apple do AI well?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2333473194","media":"阿尔法工场研究院","summary":"面对不可忽视的AI大模型浪潮，苹果自己的AI究竟去哪了？在当时的乔布斯看来，Siri不仅代表了苹果未来在AI领域的希望，而且“最终会在宇宙留下自己的痕迹”。在二季度财报会议上，库克表示，AI功能已经嵌入到各种苹果产品中，苹果将继续有序地将AI融入设备中。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Faced with Apple's various difficulties in AI today, people can't help but wonder, if Jobs is facing these difficulties, how will he make a decision?</strong>In this year's AI war, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and other major manufacturers have tried their best, eager to seize the opportunity in the future track.</p><p>However, Apple, which is also a leading enterprise in the technology industry, has \"misfired\" in this competition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd616d536f74bb8a5638b58e0ffbe64\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Faced with the wave of large AI models that can't be ignored, where has Apple's own AI gone?</p><p>When it comes to this problem, many people almost think of Siri, the smart assistant that comes with iPhone.</p><p>However, to be honest, in the course of nearly ten years, Siri's performance has not only become more \"intelligent\", but has become more and more \"mentally retarded\".</p><p>Long reaction interval, inability to ask questions continuously, stereotypical and repetitive answers, etc. Today, when GPT and other AI are becoming more and more \"human\", Siri looks colder than a \"machine\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8432b2b8434cc8aa372a6f773c9a16\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>An ironic fact is that this outcast, who even Apple's internal employees gaze at today, more than a decade ago, was the \"proud son of heaven\" who carried Jobs' greatest expectations.</p><p>In the view of Jobs at that time, Siri not only represented Apple's future hope in the field of AI, but also \"will eventually leave its own traces in the universe\".</p><p>In that case, how did the situation decline to the point it is today?</p><p><strong>The shackles of privacy</strong>If we want to find the most important lesion for Apple's current weakness in the field of AI, then such a lesion is Apple's long-term \"persistence\" in user privacy and data security.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a339167b3af84da58e37f9374c4413d7\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>As we all know, the training of large models is inseparable from the support of a large amount of data, which means that access to user information and data is often inevitable.</p><p>However, the protection of user privacy has always been the core of Apple's brand image and business model, which has led to various overwhelming situations when it tries to develop large models.</p><p>For example, because real-time user feedback and data are not available, every time the R&D team tries to add a new phrase to Siri, it often needs to rebuild the entire database, a process that will take up to six weeks.</p><p>If it is a complex function, as long as a year is also very likely.</p><p>Not only that, but Apple's design team has repeatedly refused to allow users to give feedback on Siri's answers to questions, leaving the development team unable to understand the limitations of the model.</p><p>So, how did this privacy policy, which seems like a cocoon today, come into being within Apple?</p><p>Like the development of everything, Apple's privacy brand is not born with it, but has experienced a long development of 10 years. Its emphasis on privacy has actually been constantly upgraded by the market again and again, until it has become Apple's \"core values\".</p><p>Two of the most important turns took place in 2011 and 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6439c689cb2a4fc987bb1ac67f9a7e33\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>In April 2011, Apple was revealed to upload user positioning information to the server in plain text, infringing on user privacy;</p><p>In July 2014, Apple was revealed by hackers that there were multiple backdoors, which would extract personal data such as text messages, address books and photos in iPhone through an undisclosed technology;</p><p>After these two \"severe beatings\", Apple, which learned from the painful experience, had to work hard on privacy security. In 2015, Jane Horvath, Google's global privacy consultant, one of the \"Three Czars of Privacy\", was hired to help develop privacy design in IOS system.</p><p>However, for Apple, the establishment of the core value of \"privacy\" is not only a golden sign, but also a shackle that binds itself.</p><p>Because any product changes that hinder \"privacy\" will not help challenge their hard-accumulated brand loyalty and market share.</p><p>But people are alive and data is dead. On the way to big models, there are always some ways to make people find another way.</p><p>At the 2017 WWDC conference, Apple announced the adoption of Federated Learning technology to improve Siri's speech recognition function.</p><p>It can be recognized on the device without the need to upload the user's voice data to the cloud for processing, thus protecting the user's privacy.</p><p>This is a very innovative technology because it solves the conflict between privacy security and training large models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c2d7df24c046638f176b1af99ee651\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>When the initialized model is trained locally, only a model trained based on local data is transmitted back to the cloud, not the user data itself.</p><p>After these local models are transferred back to the cloud, all the local models of users will be merged into a global model through model aggregation.</p><p>Finally, Apple will transfer the merged global model back to the user's local device through model update to replace the original model.</p><p>In this way, Apple not only realizes the training of the model, but also protects the privacy and security of users, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.</p><p>However, even such promising technology has still failed to save Siri's dilemma today, because apart from simple technical factors, Apple's weakness in the field of AI has deeper reasons.</p><p><strong>Cook's inertia</strong>If you want to ask what is the biggest difference between Cook and Jobs, I am afraid that the words \"businessman\" and \"dreamer\" are enough to sum it up.</p><p>Cook, who has a background in financial and operational management, emphasized finance and marketing rather than technology research and development during his tenure as CEO of Apple.</p><p>As early as his tenure as Apple's chief operating officer, he successfully optimized the company's supply chain and production processes, enabling Apple to achieve better sales performance in the market.</p><p>After he succeeded Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple, he continued to use this management approach, which emphasized finance and marketing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0402cb991ada4ce7947cfe69c84beea0\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Is it wrong to be a CEO who wants to make money? No, but that's just for a regular company.</p><p>For a tech giant like Apple, just \"just thinking about making money\" is the beginning of its vitality drying up.</p><p>Faced with the aggressive AI tide, although Cook is also driven by the times, he has acquired a number of AI start-ups, such as Turi, Lattice Data, Perceptio, etc. Even poached a team of data scientists from Silicon Valley with a lot of money.</p><p>However, these \"quick guns\" and \"cannons\" stored in the warehouse have become gorgeous \"decorations\" because of Cook's caution.</p><p>At the second quarter earnings report meeting, Cook said that AI functions have been embedded in various Apple products, and Apple will continue to integrate AI into devices in an orderly manner.</p><p>However, the AI function mentioned by Cook is not the hot AIGC at present, but still belongs to the category of \"traditional AI\", including fall detection of Apple Watch and collision detection of iPhone.</p><p>Cook's caution and hesitation are essentially a manifestation of Apple's thinking inertia in the era of mobile phone hardware.</p><p>Because in more than ten years of development, Apple has created and controlled its own product ecosystem mainly by independently developing hardware and optimizing software, which has achieved great success in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a10956afa3e64452aba05b6333f4ee10\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>In contrast, there is no clear commercial profit model for embedding generative AI in Apple's hardware and software for the time being, but Apple has to pay a high cost for huge computing power and hardware.</p><p>According to previous calculations, the cost of GPT-4 per 1,000 prompt words is as high as 12 cents. In addition, Apple's global iPhone users alone have exceeded one billion, and its running cost will be extremely high.</p><p>However, in the face of the unpredictable technological revolution, people need not only rational calculation, but also imagination and passion.</p><p>Imagine if embedded in the iPhone is a smaller ChatGPT that can be deployed locally and is highly optimized?</p><p>By then, Siri based on a large model will make mobile phones an almost all-encompassing multi-modal tool, which can be realized anytime, anywhere, between small screens, whether writing articles, programming or painting.</p><p>In fact, someone has already done such a thing.</p><p>Recently, Chen Tianqi, an assistant professor in Carnegie Mellon Department of Computer Science, successfully passed a project called MLC LLM, which made it possible for people to deploy any large model natively on all kinds of hardware.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ffa82cfc8f4b759be61ff6d0d6970c\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>With the MLC LLM solution, everyone can deploy AI models on their personal devices without server support and accelerate through consumer-grade GPUs on phones and laptops.</p><p>Imagine if such a technology was adopted by Apple, which has nearly 2 billion devices around the world, and bound to various devices in Apple's family bucket, so that AI services could be integrated into all our existing application scenarios such as social networking, travel, office, etc.</p><p>As a result, how far will Apple's business territory expand?</p><p>So, with such a vast prospect, will Apple really miss out on the biggest technological revolution in the new century?</p><p><strong>Write at the end</strong>Faced with Apple's various difficulties in AI today, people can't help but wonder, if Jobs is facing these difficulties, how will he make a decision?</p><p>A long time ago, Jobs was asked what he thought of his career.</p><p>Jobs saw it this way: \"Don't plan a career. It is the enemy of most dreams and intuitions, and it is the most dangerous and suffocating concept ever invented by humanity.\"</p><p>During Apple's development, Jobs has always been a passionate and innovative leader. His way of thinking is not sticking to tradition, and he is often used for risk-taking and experimentation.</p><p>Apple's two most important products right now, the Apple II and the iPhone, aren't actually driven by a lot of market research or financial tables.</p><p>In Jobs's words, \"It's because we all hate our phones.\"</p><p>In Jobs's view, a company is just an organization where a group of people come together to solve a specific problem. What matters is not the company itself, but what people really pay attention to and are interested in.</p><p>Jobs once talked about why Apple had problems after losing him:</p><p>\"Apple's goal in the past was to build the best personal computer in the world. The second goal was to make money.\"</p><p>And when Apple tried to put \"making money\" first, the whole period was screwed, the logic didn't work, and it never worked.</p><p>Looking at Apple's caution in AI today, we can see the changes in Apple's spiritual core in the post-Jobs era.</p><p>Perhaps, in the face of technological change, people need not only calculations and trade-offs, but also some passion, ideals and innovation.</p><p>This is because rational calculation seems to make people do everything right, but people lose an entire era because of it.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion | Why can't Apple do AI well?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion | Why can't Apple do AI well?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1026500124\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df70e92a2d64be896797ea06b5e676a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">阿尔法工场研究院 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-08 12:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Faced with Apple's various difficulties in AI today, people can't help but wonder, if Jobs is facing these difficulties, how will he make a decision?</strong>In this year's AI war, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and other major manufacturers have tried their best, eager to seize the opportunity in the future track.</p><p>However, Apple, which is also a leading enterprise in the technology industry, has \"misfired\" in this competition.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd616d536f74bb8a5638b58e0ffbe64\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Faced with the wave of large AI models that can't be ignored, where has Apple's own AI gone?</p><p>When it comes to this problem, many people almost think of Siri, the smart assistant that comes with iPhone.</p><p>However, to be honest, in the course of nearly ten years, Siri's performance has not only become more \"intelligent\", but has become more and more \"mentally retarded\".</p><p>Long reaction interval, inability to ask questions continuously, stereotypical and repetitive answers, etc. Today, when GPT and other AI are becoming more and more \"human\", Siri looks colder than a \"machine\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8432b2b8434cc8aa372a6f773c9a16\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>An ironic fact is that this outcast, who even Apple's internal employees gaze at today, more than a decade ago, was the \"proud son of heaven\" who carried Jobs' greatest expectations.</p><p>In the view of Jobs at that time, Siri not only represented Apple's future hope in the field of AI, but also \"will eventually leave its own traces in the universe\".</p><p>In that case, how did the situation decline to the point it is today?</p><p><strong>The shackles of privacy</strong>If we want to find the most important lesion for Apple's current weakness in the field of AI, then such a lesion is Apple's long-term \"persistence\" in user privacy and data security.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a339167b3af84da58e37f9374c4413d7\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>As we all know, the training of large models is inseparable from the support of a large amount of data, which means that access to user information and data is often inevitable.</p><p>However, the protection of user privacy has always been the core of Apple's brand image and business model, which has led to various overwhelming situations when it tries to develop large models.</p><p>For example, because real-time user feedback and data are not available, every time the R&D team tries to add a new phrase to Siri, it often needs to rebuild the entire database, a process that will take up to six weeks.</p><p>If it is a complex function, as long as a year is also very likely.</p><p>Not only that, but Apple's design team has repeatedly refused to allow users to give feedback on Siri's answers to questions, leaving the development team unable to understand the limitations of the model.</p><p>So, how did this privacy policy, which seems like a cocoon today, come into being within Apple?</p><p>Like the development of everything, Apple's privacy brand is not born with it, but has experienced a long development of 10 years. Its emphasis on privacy has actually been constantly upgraded by the market again and again, until it has become Apple's \"core values\".</p><p>Two of the most important turns took place in 2011 and 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6439c689cb2a4fc987bb1ac67f9a7e33\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>In April 2011, Apple was revealed to upload user positioning information to the server in plain text, infringing on user privacy;</p><p>In July 2014, Apple was revealed by hackers that there were multiple backdoors, which would extract personal data such as text messages, address books and photos in iPhone through an undisclosed technology;</p><p>After these two \"severe beatings\", Apple, which learned from the painful experience, had to work hard on privacy security. In 2015, Jane Horvath, Google's global privacy consultant, one of the \"Three Czars of Privacy\", was hired to help develop privacy design in IOS system.</p><p>However, for Apple, the establishment of the core value of \"privacy\" is not only a golden sign, but also a shackle that binds itself.</p><p>Because any product changes that hinder \"privacy\" will not help challenge their hard-accumulated brand loyalty and market share.</p><p>But people are alive and data is dead. On the way to big models, there are always some ways to make people find another way.</p><p>At the 2017 WWDC conference, Apple announced the adoption of Federated Learning technology to improve Siri's speech recognition function.</p><p>It can be recognized on the device without the need to upload the user's voice data to the cloud for processing, thus protecting the user's privacy.</p><p>This is a very innovative technology because it solves the conflict between privacy security and training large models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c2d7df24c046638f176b1af99ee651\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>When the initialized model is trained locally, only a model trained based on local data is transmitted back to the cloud, not the user data itself.</p><p>After these local models are transferred back to the cloud, all the local models of users will be merged into a global model through model aggregation.</p><p>Finally, Apple will transfer the merged global model back to the user's local device through model update to replace the original model.</p><p>In this way, Apple not only realizes the training of the model, but also protects the privacy and security of users, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.</p><p>However, even such promising technology has still failed to save Siri's dilemma today, because apart from simple technical factors, Apple's weakness in the field of AI has deeper reasons.</p><p><strong>Cook's inertia</strong>If you want to ask what is the biggest difference between Cook and Jobs, I am afraid that the words \"businessman\" and \"dreamer\" are enough to sum it up.</p><p>Cook, who has a background in financial and operational management, emphasized finance and marketing rather than technology research and development during his tenure as CEO of Apple.</p><p>As early as his tenure as Apple's chief operating officer, he successfully optimized the company's supply chain and production processes, enabling Apple to achieve better sales performance in the market.</p><p>After he succeeded Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple, he continued to use this management approach, which emphasized finance and marketing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0402cb991ada4ce7947cfe69c84beea0\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>Is it wrong to be a CEO who wants to make money? No, but that's just for a regular company.</p><p>For a tech giant like Apple, just \"just thinking about making money\" is the beginning of its vitality drying up.</p><p>Faced with the aggressive AI tide, although Cook is also driven by the times, he has acquired a number of AI start-ups, such as Turi, Lattice Data, Perceptio, etc. Even poached a team of data scientists from Silicon Valley with a lot of money.</p><p>However, these \"quick guns\" and \"cannons\" stored in the warehouse have become gorgeous \"decorations\" because of Cook's caution.</p><p>At the second quarter earnings report meeting, Cook said that AI functions have been embedded in various Apple products, and Apple will continue to integrate AI into devices in an orderly manner.</p><p>However, the AI function mentioned by Cook is not the hot AIGC at present, but still belongs to the category of \"traditional AI\", including fall detection of Apple Watch and collision detection of iPhone.</p><p>Cook's caution and hesitation are essentially a manifestation of Apple's thinking inertia in the era of mobile phone hardware.</p><p>Because in more than ten years of development, Apple has created and controlled its own product ecosystem mainly by independently developing hardware and optimizing software, which has achieved great success in the past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a10956afa3e64452aba05b6333f4ee10\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>In contrast, there is no clear commercial profit model for embedding generative AI in Apple's hardware and software for the time being, but Apple has to pay a high cost for huge computing power and hardware.</p><p>According to previous calculations, the cost of GPT-4 per 1,000 prompt words is as high as 12 cents. In addition, Apple's global iPhone users alone have exceeded one billion, and its running cost will be extremely high.</p><p>However, in the face of the unpredictable technological revolution, people need not only rational calculation, but also imagination and passion.</p><p>Imagine if embedded in the iPhone is a smaller ChatGPT that can be deployed locally and is highly optimized?</p><p>By then, Siri based on a large model will make mobile phones an almost all-encompassing multi-modal tool, which can be realized anytime, anywhere, between small screens, whether writing articles, programming or painting.</p><p>In fact, someone has already done such a thing.</p><p>Recently, Chen Tianqi, an assistant professor in Carnegie Mellon Department of Computer Science, successfully passed a project called MLC LLM, which made it possible for people to deploy any large model natively on all kinds of hardware.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ffa82cfc8f4b759be61ff6d0d6970c\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>With the MLC LLM solution, everyone can deploy AI models on their personal devices without server support and accelerate through consumer-grade GPUs on phones and laptops.</p><p>Imagine if such a technology was adopted by Apple, which has nearly 2 billion devices around the world, and bound to various devices in Apple's family bucket, so that AI services could be integrated into all our existing application scenarios such as social networking, travel, office, etc.</p><p>As a result, how far will Apple's business territory expand?</p><p>So, with such a vast prospect, will Apple really miss out on the biggest technological revolution in the new century?</p><p><strong>Write at the end</strong>Faced with Apple's various difficulties in AI today, people can't help but wonder, if Jobs is facing these difficulties, how will he make a decision?</p><p>A long time ago, Jobs was asked what he thought of his career.</p><p>Jobs saw it this way: \"Don't plan a career. It is the enemy of most dreams and intuitions, and it is the most dangerous and suffocating concept ever invented by humanity.\"</p><p>During Apple's development, Jobs has always been a passionate and innovative leader. His way of thinking is not sticking to tradition, and he is often used for risk-taking and experimentation.</p><p>Apple's two most important products right now, the Apple II and the iPhone, aren't actually driven by a lot of market research or financial tables.</p><p>In Jobs's words, \"It's because we all hate our phones.\"</p><p>In Jobs's view, a company is just an organization where a group of people come together to solve a specific problem. What matters is not the company itself, but what people really pay attention to and are interested in.</p><p>Jobs once talked about why Apple had problems after losing him:</p><p>\"Apple's goal in the past was to build the best personal computer in the world. The second goal was to make money.\"</p><p>And when Apple tried to put \"making money\" first, the whole period was screwed, the logic didn't work, and it never worked.</p><p>Looking at Apple's caution in AI today, we can see the changes in Apple's spiritual core in the post-Jobs era.</p><p>Perhaps, in the face of technological change, people need not only calculations and trade-offs, but also some passion, ideals and innovation.</p><p>This is because rational calculation seems to make people do everything right, but people lose an entire era because of it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e69d8db14c4630a5e30deca9eee428","relate_stocks":{"BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc 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SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2333473194","content_text":"面对苹果今天在AI上的种种困境，人们不禁在想，倘若面对这些难题的是乔布斯，他又会如何决断呢？在今年爆发的AI大战中，微软、谷歌、亚马逊等各个大厂，都纷纷使出了自己的浑身解数，渴望在未来的赛道中抢占先机。然而，同样身为科技界龙头企业的苹果，却在这场竞争中“哑火”了。面对不可忽视的AI大模型浪潮，苹果自己的AI究竟去哪了？提到这个问题，很多人几乎都会想到iPhone自带的智能助手——Siri。然而，实事求是地说，在近十年的历程中，Siri的表现不但没有变得更“智能”，反而变得愈发“智障”了。反应间隔久、不能连续提问、回答刻板重复……等等这些特点，在GPT等AI变得愈发有“人性”的今天，都让Siri看上去比“机器”更冰冷了。一个讽刺的事实是：这个今日连苹果内部员工都侧目的弃儿，十多年前，却是承载了乔布斯最大期望的“天之骄子”。在当时的乔布斯看来，Siri不仅代表了苹果未来在AI领域的希望，而且“最终会在宇宙留下自己的痕迹”。既然如此，那情况是怎么衰落到今天这个地步的？隐私的枷锁如果要为当下苹果在AI领域的乏力，找一个最主要的病灶，那这样的病灶，则莫过于苹果长期以来对用户隐私和数据安全的“执着”。众所周知，大模型的训练，离不开大量数据的支持，这就意味着对用户信息和数据的访问，往往是无法避免的。然而，对用户隐私的保护，一直以来都是苹果品牌形象和商业模式的核心，这就导致了其试图在发展大模型时，出现了各种焦头烂额的情况。例如，由于无法获得实时的用户反馈和数据，每当研发团队试图为Siri增加一个新短语时，往往就需要重建整个数据库，这一过程耗时将会长达六个星期。如果是复杂的功能，长则一年也很有可能。不仅如此，而且苹果设计团队还多次拒绝允许用户对Siri回答问题进行反馈，导致开发团队无法理解模型的局限。那么，这种今天看起来如作茧自缚一般的隐私政策，究竟是怎么在苹果内部形成的呢？与所有事物的发展一样，苹果的隐私品牌也不是生来就有的，而是经历了10年的漫长发展，其对隐私的重视程度，实际上是在一次次被市场“毒打”下不断升级，直至成为苹果的“核心价值观”的。其中最重要的两次转折，分别发生在2011和2014年。2011年4月，苹果被爆出将用户定位信息明文上传服务器，侵犯用户隐私；2014年7月，苹果又被黑客爆出存在多个后门，这些后门会通过一项未公开的技术，来提取iPhone中的短信、通讯录和照片等个人数据；经过这两次“毒打”后，痛定思痛的苹果，不得不在隐私安全上下了狠功夫，在2015年重金挖来了有“隐私三沙皇”之一称号的谷歌全球隐私顾问Jane Horvath，来协助研发IOS系统中的隐私设计。然而，“隐私”这一核心价值观的设立，对苹果而言，既是一块金字招牌，又是一条束缚自身的枷锁。因为此后任何有碍于“隐私”的产品改动，都无益于在挑战自身辛苦积累的品牌忠诚度和市场占有率。但人是活的，数据是死的，在通往大模型的路上，总有一些办法能让人另辟蹊径。在2017年的WWDC大会上，苹果宣布采用联邦学习（Federated Learning）技术来改进Siri的语音识别功能。它可以在设备上进行识别，而不需要将用户的语音数据上传到云端进行处理，从而保护用户的隐私。这是个十分创新的技术，因为它解决了隐私安全和训练大模型之间的冲突。当初始化的模型，在本地完成训练后，传回云端的只是一个基于本地数据训练而得到的模型，而不是用户数据本身。这些本地模型被传输回云端后，通过模型聚合的方式，用户所有的本地模型将合并成一个全局模型。最后，苹果会通过模型更新的方式，将合并后的全局模型传输回用户的本地设备上，替换原有的模型。如此一来，苹果既实现了模型的训练，又保护了用户的隐私安全，可谓一举两得。然而，即便是如此有前途的技术，仍然没能挽救今日Siri的窘境，因为除了单纯的技术因素外，苹果在AI领域的疲软，还有更深层次的原因。库克的惯性如果要问库克与乔布斯最大的区别是什么，那恐怕“商人”与“梦想家”这两个词就足以概括。财务和运营管理出身的库克，在担任苹果公司的CEO期间，强调的是财务和营销，而不是技术研发。早在担任苹果公司首席运营官期间，他成功地优化了公司的供应链和生产流程，使得苹果在市场上取得更好的销售业绩。在他接替乔布斯成为苹果公司CEO后，他继续沿用了这种强调财务和营销的管理方式。当一个想赚钱的CEO，有错吗？没有，但那只是对一家普通公司而言。对苹果这样的科技巨头来说，仅仅“只想着赚钱”，就是其生命力枯竭的开始。面对咄咄逼人的AI大潮，库克虽然也在时代的推动下，并购了多家AI初创企业，如Turi、Lattice Data、Perceptio等；甚至还用重金从硅谷挖来了一支数据科学家团队。然而，这些存在仓库里的“快枪”、“大炮”，却由于库克的谨小慎微，而纷纷成了华丽的“摆设”。在二季度财报会议上，库克表示，AI功能已经嵌入到各种苹果产品中，苹果将继续有序地将AI融入设备中。然而，库克所言的AI功能并非当下大热的AIGC，仍然属于“传统AI”的范畴，包括Apple Watch的跌倒检测、iPhone的碰撞检测等。库克的谨慎与裹足不前，本质上是苹果在手机硬件时代思维惯性的一种体现。因为在十多年的发展中，苹果主要是通过自主研发硬件和优化软件的方式，来创建和控制自己的产品生态系统，这在过去取得了巨大成功。相较之下，将生成式AI嵌入苹果硬件、软件中的做法，暂时还看不到一个十分明确的商业化盈利模式，但苹果却要为巨大的算力、硬件付出高昂的成本。依据此前的推算，GPT-4 每千个提示词的成本高达 12 美分，加上苹果全球仅 iPhone 用户就突破十亿，其运行的成本将极其高昂。然而，面对变幻莫测的技术革命，人们不仅需要理性的计算，更需要想象力与激情。试想一下 ，如果嵌入到iPhone中的，是一个能够在本地部署，并且高度优化过后的，更小的 ChatGPT 呢？到了那时，基于大模型的 Siri ，将会让手机成为一个几乎无所不包的多模态工具，无论是写文章、编程，还是绘画，都能随时随地，在小小的屏幕间实现。实际上，这样的事情，已经有人做到了。最近，卡耐基梅隆计算机科学系助理教授陈天奇，就成功通过一个叫MLC LLM 的项目，让人们在各类硬件上原生部署任意大型模型，成为了可能。借助 MLC LLM 方案，每个人都能在个人设备上部署 AI 模型，而无需服务器支持，并通过手机和笔记本电脑上的消费级 GPU 进行加速。想象一下，倘若这样的技术，被全球拥有接近 20 亿台设备的苹果采用，并将之与苹果全家桶里各种设备绑定，使AI服务集成到我们现有社交、出行、办公等等所有应用场景之中。如此一来，苹果的商业版图将会扩大到什么地步？那么，面对如此广阔的前景，苹果是否真的会错过这场新世纪以来最大的技术革命呢？写在最后面对苹果今天在AI上的种种困境，人们不禁在想，倘若面对这些难题的是乔布斯，他又会如何决断呢？很久之前，有人曾问乔布斯对对于事业（career）的看法。乔布斯是这么看的：“不要规划事业（career），那是大多数梦想和直觉的敌人，也是人类有史以来发明的最危险、最令人窒息的一个概念。”在苹果的发展历程中，乔布斯始终是一位充满激情和创新思维的领袖，他的思维方式不拘泥于传统，并时常用于冒险和尝试。苹果目前最重要的两大产品——Apple II 和 iPhone，实际上并不是由一大堆市场研究或者金融表格推动的。用乔布斯的话来说：“是因为我们都讨厌自己的手机。”在乔布斯看来，公司只是一群人聚集在一起解决特定问题的组织，重要的不是公司本身，而是人们真正关注和感兴趣的事情。乔布斯曾经谈到过，为什么苹果失去他之后会出现问题：“苹果过去的目标是造出世界上最好的个人电脑。第二个目标是赚钱。”而当苹果试图将“赚钱”放在第一位时，整个时期就完蛋了，这个逻辑没有成功，并且它从来都不管用。纵观今日苹果在AI方面的种种谨慎，我们可以由此看出在后乔布斯时代，苹果精神内核的变化。或许，在技术变革面前，人们需要的不仅仅是计算与权衡，更需要些许激情、理想与创新精神。这是因为，理性的计算看似让人做对了一切，但人们却因此而失掉了整个时代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":656300391,"gmtCreate":1683331469715,"gmtModify":1683331469715,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍……","listText":"👍……","text":"👍……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/656300391","repostId":"1112808779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112808779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683300967,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112808779?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-05 23:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Besides AI, what are the other highlights of Google I/O Developer Conference?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112808779","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"升级版Bard、全新AI搜索引擎、AI版Workspace、Android 14系统、Pixel全家桶...自从微软支持的ChatGPT出现后，谷歌一夜之间从机器学习领域的引领者沦为追随者，仓促间推出","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Upgraded Bard, New AI Search Engine, AI Workspace, Android 14 System, Pixel Family Bucket...</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the advent of Microsoft-backed ChatGPT, Google has gone from a leader in the field of machine learning to a follower overnight, and the hasty launch of Bard has failed to make a splash in the market. In the face of opponents pressing step by step, Google must come up with better products, and at present, there is no better opportunity than the annual I/O Developer Conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I/O Developer Conference, Google's biggest exhibition of the year, will be held in Mountain View, California, USA on May 10th, local time (May 11th, Beijing time), and Google will provide the whole live broadcast. At that time, professionals from all over the world will gather to learn about Google's innovations and progress in software and hardware.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cb39c9ba9f16334fd38dbb017aedc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google CEO Sundar Pichai revealed one of the few bright spots during his first-quarter earnings call, including AI, Pixel phones and Android 14 systems. Combined with media reports, Wall Street News summarized the eight highlights of this event:</p><p><h2>Smarter Bard?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As a product that \"catches ducks and puts them on the shelves\", Bard \"flipped over\" when it was first launched, and Google was criticized as \"hasty, poor and without Google style\". This time, can Google use the conference to launch an upgraded version of Bard to avenge its previous shame?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as the end of March, Pichai revealed that it would launch an upgraded version of Bard and upgrade from a lightweight Lamda-based model to a larger-scale PaLM model, with training parameters rising from 137 billion to 540 billion. It is claimed that the upgraded Bard will have stronger common sense reasoning and programming capabilities.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the middle of last month, Google announced that Bard had learned to program and develop software. It can not only generate code, fix bugs in code, but also explain the usefulness of code.</p><p><h2>The new AI search engine is also coming?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From the integration of ChatGPT to the full opening of the whole line, Microsoft's new Bing has irreversibly become the biggest threat faced by Google's search business in 25 years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google is actively challenging, and it is said that it is stepping up to build a brand-new generative AI search engine Magi. The biggest feature of the engine is \"the ability to guess what users want\", is more interactive, and Google also plans to keep ads in search results.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, it was reported that,<strong>Planning documents show Magi to be released to the public this month</strong>, so, will it be the I/O developer conference in a week?</p><p><h2>AI version of Workspace unveiled?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the office field, which is also threatened by Microsoft, Google has announced that it will integrate AI into its office system Workspace, and office software such as Gmail, Google Docs, Google Slides and Google Meet will all integrate generative AI.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, users can use AI to generate, summarize and brainstorm in Docs; Write an outline in Gmail and have AI write the full email; Generating pictures, audio, and videos with AI in Slides; Create notes with AI in Meet.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc910872e4bcd2eb0eb69520c157641\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present, Gmail and Docs are being tested by users and have not been launched to the public. Therefore, it has been suggested that Google may officially open up these features at the I/O developer conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is a great opportunity for Google to pre-empt, because although Microsoft has announced the integration of AI into Office, it is still in the beta stage and has not fully released it to the public.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For tech folks, the way Google integrates AI into the entire Workspace system rather than individual functions may be more appealing. At that time, Google may release these details.</p><p><h2>Will Google Assistant usher in an upgrade?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Voice assistants were already the most advanced and mature AI technology when they first entered the market, but they have been stagnant since then. Google Assistant, Apple's Siri and Amazon's Alexa are the most powerful voice assistants on the market at present, and Microsoft has long announced that it has abandoned Cortana.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It has been argued that if Google Assistant can make an upgrade and gain the ability to generate content based on user prompts, then it will beat Siri and Alexa.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The team behind it is currently working on the development of Bard, though, so it's unclear if Google is ready to announce an upgrade.</p><p><h2>Will Imagen be on the scene?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present, the hottest image generators are Dell-E and Midjourney. In contrast, Google has been developing its own image generator Imagen for a long time, but it has not officially launched it to the public until now.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can't help but make the outside world wonder if there is something wrong with the Imagen development process. Or is Google afraid of making another Bard-style joke?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some people think that if Google can officially launch this image generator at this I/O conference, it may open up a new situation in the field of AI.</p><p><h2>Developer Tools Arrangement!</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google warmed up on the I/O event website, saying it will share a new set of developer tools that will enable users to build on their models.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5299367fe1724b1b2b9ecb6d4c8ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since this event is geared towards developers, there is no doubt that a large part of it will be dedicated to providing tools and services to this audience, including APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) and more efficient workflows.</p><p><h2>What updates are coming to the operating system?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Android 14</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pichai said during a quarterly report conference call that Google will share the exciting new features it brings to Android 14 at the conference, but did not reveal further details.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In early April, Google released the first Beta version of Android 14, Beta 1, aimed primarily at Pixel users.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to user experience, Android 14 has made some upgrades to facilitate daily activities, such as setting predictive back gestures, the navigation bar will always remain transparent and not occupy critical screen space, and Google also allows personalization of shared lists. So far, Android 14 feels more like an iterative update that continues to build on top of Material You.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Google's release schedule, May is still the beta stage of Android 14, and it is expected that a more stable version will be launched after June.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf93f41f69ab043f27355b406ff729f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Android XR</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In February, Samsung announced that it would cooperate with Google and Qualcomm to develop a new XR headset. It is said that this headset can run through Google's new Android system. Will there be any latest news about this headset at this conference?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>WearOS</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">WearOS is an operating system released by Google back in 2021, mainly for wearable devices such as smartwatches. It was upgraded to version 3.5 last year, and with the upgrade of Android system, there is speculation that Google may release WearOS 4.0 at the conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>ChromeOS</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier this month, Google released a cross-device services app to support ChromeOS (PC-based operating system). Some analysts believe that Google will probably demonstrate and announce the release schedule at the I/O conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"Find My Device\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, there are rumors that Google is developing a \"Find My Device\" feature that will enable users to still find devices after they are turned off. This feature will be called Pixel Power-off Finder, at least on Pixel phones.</p><p><h2>Pixel Family Bucket</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to media news, Google will release four new digital products at the I/O Developer Conference, namely Pixel 7a mobile phone, Pixel Fold folding screen mobile phone, Pixel Tablet Tablet and the new sky-blue Pixel Bud-Series A wireless headphones.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the exposed rendering, Pixel 7a basically copies the design of Pixel 7 and Pixel 7 Pro. On the back is a very unique image module, which is said to be available in three colors: silver, gray-black and light blue.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9788c64e17f5f3782927f48f4aee77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Pixel Fold folding screen phone is said to have been in preparation since 2020. It was originally planned to be released in 2021, but it was postponed to 2023, which can be described as a long-awaited release.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is reported that Pixel Fold adopts the most mainstream inward folding design at present, equipped with a 5.8-inch OLED external screen and a 7.6-inch OLED internal screen, both of which support 120Hz refresh rate. The phone will be powered by Google's self-developed Tensor G2.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d7e4e786ba3227f2687b47afdc5dd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As for the Pixel Tablet, Google mentioned it at the new product launch conference last October, but did not announce the relevant parameters and configuration. Google has allegedly equipped it with a magnetic base, and the tablet is expected to be available in 4 color schemes.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cef7bf88071ea5bbcfcd1f89bdd7f5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pixel Buds A headphones are the cheapest Pixel Buds series headphones ever launched by Google. They are currently available in white and dark olive colors. It is expected that sky blue will be added this year, which is the same color as Pixel 7a.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c70b0e4d82355ece633a23956fe2afd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\"/></p><p>In terms of other hardware, Google may share the latest progress on the smart bracelet Fitbit, which has been drastically reformed after completing the acquisition of Fitbit platform.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Besides AI, what are the other highlights of Google I/O Developer Conference?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBesides AI, what are the other highlights of Google I/O Developer Conference?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-05 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Upgraded Bard, New AI Search Engine, AI Workspace, Android 14 System, Pixel Family Bucket...</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the advent of Microsoft-backed ChatGPT, Google has gone from a leader in the field of machine learning to a follower overnight, and the hasty launch of Bard has failed to make a splash in the market. In the face of opponents pressing step by step, Google must come up with better products, and at present, there is no better opportunity than the annual I/O Developer Conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">I/O Developer Conference, Google's biggest exhibition of the year, will be held in Mountain View, California, USA on May 10th, local time (May 11th, Beijing time), and Google will provide the whole live broadcast. At that time, professionals from all over the world will gather to learn about Google's innovations and progress in software and hardware.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cb39c9ba9f16334fd38dbb017aedc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google CEO Sundar Pichai revealed one of the few bright spots during his first-quarter earnings call, including AI, Pixel phones and Android 14 systems. Combined with media reports, Wall Street News summarized the eight highlights of this event:</p><p><h2>Smarter Bard?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As a product that \"catches ducks and puts them on the shelves\", Bard \"flipped over\" when it was first launched, and Google was criticized as \"hasty, poor and without Google style\". This time, can Google use the conference to launch an upgraded version of Bard to avenge its previous shame?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As early as the end of March, Pichai revealed that it would launch an upgraded version of Bard and upgrade from a lightweight Lamda-based model to a larger-scale PaLM model, with training parameters rising from 137 billion to 540 billion. It is claimed that the upgraded Bard will have stronger common sense reasoning and programming capabilities.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the middle of last month, Google announced that Bard had learned to program and develop software. It can not only generate code, fix bugs in code, but also explain the usefulness of code.</p><p><h2>The new AI search engine is also coming?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From the integration of ChatGPT to the full opening of the whole line, Microsoft's new Bing has irreversibly become the biggest threat faced by Google's search business in 25 years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google is actively challenging, and it is said that it is stepping up to build a brand-new generative AI search engine Magi. The biggest feature of the engine is \"the ability to guess what users want\", is more interactive, and Google also plans to keep ads in search results.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, it was reported that,<strong>Planning documents show Magi to be released to the public this month</strong>, so, will it be the I/O developer conference in a week?</p><p><h2>AI version of Workspace unveiled?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the office field, which is also threatened by Microsoft, Google has announced that it will integrate AI into its office system Workspace, and office software such as Gmail, Google Docs, Google Slides and Google Meet will all integrate generative AI.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, users can use AI to generate, summarize and brainstorm in Docs; Write an outline in Gmail and have AI write the full email; Generating pictures, audio, and videos with AI in Slides; Create notes with AI in Meet.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc910872e4bcd2eb0eb69520c157641\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present, Gmail and Docs are being tested by users and have not been launched to the public. Therefore, it has been suggested that Google may officially open up these features at the I/O developer conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is a great opportunity for Google to pre-empt, because although Microsoft has announced the integration of AI into Office, it is still in the beta stage and has not fully released it to the public.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For tech folks, the way Google integrates AI into the entire Workspace system rather than individual functions may be more appealing. At that time, Google may release these details.</p><p><h2>Will Google Assistant usher in an upgrade?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Voice assistants were already the most advanced and mature AI technology when they first entered the market, but they have been stagnant since then. Google Assistant, Apple's Siri and Amazon's Alexa are the most powerful voice assistants on the market at present, and Microsoft has long announced that it has abandoned Cortana.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It has been argued that if Google Assistant can make an upgrade and gain the ability to generate content based on user prompts, then it will beat Siri and Alexa.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The team behind it is currently working on the development of Bard, though, so it's unclear if Google is ready to announce an upgrade.</p><p><h2>Will Imagen be on the scene?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present, the hottest image generators are Dell-E and Midjourney. In contrast, Google has been developing its own image generator Imagen for a long time, but it has not officially launched it to the public until now.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can't help but make the outside world wonder if there is something wrong with the Imagen development process. Or is Google afraid of making another Bard-style joke?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some people think that if Google can officially launch this image generator at this I/O conference, it may open up a new situation in the field of AI.</p><p><h2>Developer Tools Arrangement!</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google warmed up on the I/O event website, saying it will share a new set of developer tools that will enable users to build on their models.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5299367fe1724b1b2b9ecb6d4c8ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since this event is geared towards developers, there is no doubt that a large part of it will be dedicated to providing tools and services to this audience, including APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) and more efficient workflows.</p><p><h2>What updates are coming to the operating system?</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Android 14</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pichai said during a quarterly report conference call that Google will share the exciting new features it brings to Android 14 at the conference, but did not reveal further details.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In early April, Google released the first Beta version of Android 14, Beta 1, aimed primarily at Pixel users.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to user experience, Android 14 has made some upgrades to facilitate daily activities, such as setting predictive back gestures, the navigation bar will always remain transparent and not occupy critical screen space, and Google also allows personalization of shared lists. So far, Android 14 feels more like an iterative update that continues to build on top of Material You.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Google's release schedule, May is still the beta stage of Android 14, and it is expected that a more stable version will be launched after June.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf93f41f69ab043f27355b406ff729f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Android XR</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In February, Samsung announced that it would cooperate with Google and Qualcomm to develop a new XR headset. It is said that this headset can run through Google's new Android system. Will there be any latest news about this headset at this conference?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>WearOS</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">WearOS is an operating system released by Google back in 2021, mainly for wearable devices such as smartwatches. It was upgraded to version 3.5 last year, and with the upgrade of Android system, there is speculation that Google may release WearOS 4.0 at the conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>ChromeOS</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier this month, Google released a cross-device services app to support ChromeOS (PC-based operating system). Some analysts believe that Google will probably demonstrate and announce the release schedule at the I/O conference.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"Find My Device\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, there are rumors that Google is developing a \"Find My Device\" feature that will enable users to still find devices after they are turned off. This feature will be called Pixel Power-off Finder, at least on Pixel phones.</p><p><h2>Pixel Family Bucket</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to media news, Google will release four new digital products at the I/O Developer Conference, namely Pixel 7a mobile phone, Pixel Fold folding screen mobile phone, Pixel Tablet Tablet and the new sky-blue Pixel Bud-Series A wireless headphones.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the exposed rendering, Pixel 7a basically copies the design of Pixel 7 and Pixel 7 Pro. On the back is a very unique image module, which is said to be available in three colors: silver, gray-black and light blue.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9788c64e17f5f3782927f48f4aee77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Pixel Fold folding screen phone is said to have been in preparation since 2020. It was originally planned to be released in 2021, but it was postponed to 2023, which can be described as a long-awaited release.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is reported that Pixel Fold adopts the most mainstream inward folding design at present, equipped with a 5.8-inch OLED external screen and a 7.6-inch OLED internal screen, both of which support 120Hz refresh rate. The phone will be powered by Google's self-developed Tensor G2.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34d7e4e786ba3227f2687b47afdc5dd2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As for the Pixel Tablet, Google mentioned it at the new product launch conference last October, but did not announce the relevant parameters and configuration. Google has allegedly equipped it with a magnetic base, and the tablet is expected to be available in 4 color schemes.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cef7bf88071ea5bbcfcd1f89bdd7f5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pixel Buds A headphones are the cheapest Pixel Buds series headphones ever launched by Google. They are currently available in white and dark olive colors. It is expected that sky blue will be added this year, which is the same color as Pixel 7a.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c70b0e4d82355ece633a23956fe2afd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\"/></p><p>In terms of other hardware, Google may share the latest progress on the smart bracelet Fitbit, which has been drastically reformed after completing the acquisition of Fitbit platform.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688074\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696cb39c9ba9f16334fd38dbb017aedc","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688074","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112808779","content_text":"升级版Bard、全新AI搜索引擎、AI版Workspace、Android 14系统、Pixel全家桶...自从微软支持的ChatGPT出现后，谷歌一夜之间从机器学习领域的引领者沦为追随者，仓促间推出的Bard没能在市场掀起水花。面对对手步步紧逼，谷歌必须拿出更能打的产品，而眼下，没有比一年一度的I/O开发者大会更好的机会了。I/O开发者大会——谷歌一年当中最盛大的展会，将于当地时间5月10日（北京时间5月11日）在美国加利福尼亚州山景城举办，谷歌将提供全程直播。届时，来自全球的专业人士汇聚一堂，了解谷歌在软硬件方面的创新和进展。谷歌首席执行官Sundar Pichai在一季度财报电话会议上透露了为数不多的亮点，包括AI、Pixel手机和Android 14系统。结合媒体报道，华尔街见闻汇总了本届盛会的八大看点：更聪明的Bard？作为一款“赶鸭子上架”的产品，Bard首发即“翻车”，谷歌也因此被批“仓促、拙劣、毫无谷歌风范”。这次，谷歌能否借大会推出升级版Bard一雪前耻？早在3月底，Pichai就透露将推出升级版Bard，并从基于轻量级LaMDA模型升级为更大规模的PaLM模型，训练参数从1370亿个升至5400亿个。据称，升级后的Bard将具有更强的常识推理和编程能力。上月中旬，谷歌又宣布Bard已经学会编程和开发软件，它不仅能够生成代码、修正代码里的Bug，还能解释代码的用处。全新AI搜索引擎也要来了？从集成ChatGPT，到全面开放使用全线，微软新Bing已经不可逆地成为谷歌搜索业务25年来面临的最大威胁。谷歌积极应战，据称正在加紧打造一款全新的生成式AI搜索引擎Magi。该引擎的最大特点是“能够猜到用户的需求”，具有更强的交互性，谷歌还计划在搜索结果中保留广告。此前有消息称，规划文件显示Magi将于本月向公众发布，那么，会是一周后举行的I/O开发者大会吗？AI版Workspace亮相？在同样受微软威胁的办公领域，谷歌已宣布将把AI融入旗下办公系统Workspace，Gmail、谷歌Docs、谷歌Slides和谷歌Meet等办公软件都将集成生成式AI。比如，用户能在Docs中用AI生成、总结和头脑风暴；在Gmail中写大纲，并让AI写完整邮件；在Slides中用AI生成图片、音频、视频；在Meet中用AI创建笔记。目前Gmail、Docs正在用户测试中，并没有面向公众推出。因此，有人认为，谷歌可能会在I/O开发者大会正式开放这些功能。这对于谷歌而言是一个先发制人的绝佳机会，因为微软虽然已宣布将AI集成进Office，但仍处于测试阶段，并未完全向公众发布。对于科技人士来说，谷歌将AI集成到整个Workspace系统而非单个功能的方式可能更具吸引力。届时，谷歌可能会公布这些细节。谷歌助手会迎来升级吗？语音助手刚进入市场时就已经是最先进、最成熟的AI技术，但此后一直停滞不前。Google Assistant、苹果的Siri和亚马逊的Alexa是目前市面上最强大的语音助手，而微软早就宣布放弃Cortana了。有人认为，如果Google Assistant能够进行升级，并获得根据用户提示生成内容的能力，那么它将打败Siri和Alexa。不过，它背后的团队目前正在负责Bard的开发工作，因此目前还不清楚谷歌是否已经准备好宣布升级。Imagen会登场吗？要说当前最火爆的图像生成器，非Dell-E和Midjourney莫属，相比之下，谷歌长期以来一直在开发自己的图像生成器Imagen，但到现在仍没有正式向公众推出。这不禁让外界怀疑，Imagen开发过程是不是出了问题？或者说谷歌怕再闹出Bard式笑话？有人认为，如果谷歌能在本届I/O大会上正式推出这一图像生成器，或许能在AI领域打开新局面。开发者工具安排！谷歌在I/O大会活动网站上预热称，将与大家分享一套全新开发者工具，这些工具可以使用户在其模型上进行构建。由于本次活动面向开发人员，因此毫无疑问，其中很大一部分将致力于为这些受众提供工具和服务，包括API（应用程序编程接口）和更高效的工作流程。操作系统将迎来哪些更新？Android 14Pichai在一季报电话会议上表示，谷歌将在大会上分享其为Android 14带来令人兴奋的新功能，但没有透露更多细节。4月初，谷歌发布了Android 14的第一个测试版本Beta 1，主要面向Pixel用户。根据用户体验，Android 14为方便日常活动进行了一些升级，比如设置预测性后退手势，导航栏将始终保持透明状态，不占用关键屏幕空间，另外，谷歌还允许对共享列表进行个性化设置。到目前为止，Android 14感觉更像是一个迭代更新，继续构建在Material You之上。按照谷歌发布时间安排表，5月仍为Android 14的测试阶段，预计6月之后将会推出更稳定的版本。Android XR2月份，三星公布将于与谷歌和高通合作开发全新XR头显，据称这款头显可通过谷歌的全新安卓系统运行，本次大会上是否会有关于这款头显的最新消息？WearOSWearOS是谷歌早在2021年发布的操作系统，主要用于智能手表等穿戴设备，去年升级到3.5版本，随着Android系统的升级，有人猜测谷歌可能会在大会上发布WearOS 4.0。ChromeOS本月早些时候，谷歌发布了一个跨设备服务应用程序来支持ChromeOS（基于PC的操作系统）。有分析认为，谷歌大概率会在 I/O大会上进行演示并公布发布日程。“查找我的设备”另外，还有传言称谷歌正在开发一项“查找我的设备”功能，能够使用户在设备关机后依然可以找到设备，该功能将被称为Pixel Power-off Finder，至少在Pixel手机上是这个名。Pixel全家桶综合媒体消息，谷歌将会在I/O开发者大会上发布四款数码新品，分别是Pixel 7a手机、Pixel Fold折叠屏手机，Pixel Tablet平板和新的天蓝色Pixel Bud-Series A无线耳机。根据曝光的渲染图，Pixel 7a基本照搬了Pixel 7和Pixel 7 Pro的设计，背面是一条非常独特的影像模组，据说会提供银色、灰黑以及浅蓝三种配色。Pixel Fold折叠屏手机据称从2020年就开始筹备，原计划与2021年发布，但却推迟到了2023年，可谓是千呼万唤始出来。据悉，Pixel Fold采用目前最主流的内折设计，搭载一块5.8英寸的 OLED 外屏和一块7.6英寸OLED内屏，均支持120Hz刷新率。这款手机将搭载谷歌自研的Tensor G2。至于Pixel Tablet ，谷歌曾在去年10月的新品发布会上提到过，但没有公布相关参数和配置。据称，谷歌为其配备了一个磁吸底座，这款平板预计将有4款配色可选。Pixel Buds A耳机是谷歌推出过的最便宜的Pixel Buds系列耳机，目前有白色和深橄榄色两种配色，预计今年会新增天蓝色，和Pixel 7a颜色相同。其他硬件方面，谷歌可能会分享关于智能手环Fitbit的最新进展，谷歌在完成对Fitbit平台的收购后便对其进行了大刀阔斧的改革。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":658725176,"gmtCreate":1683158419797,"gmtModify":1683158419797,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/658725176","repostId":"1134522599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134522599","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683121847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134522599?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 21:50","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. Regional Bank Stocks Higher, Westpac Bancorp Up Over 12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134522599","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美股区域性银行股走高，西太平洋合众银行涨超12%，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨超6%，Keycor涨超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3rd, regional bank stocks in U.S. stocks rose, and the West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>U.S. Bank rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>It rose more than 6%, and Keycor rose more than 4%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1146171d044fd40875dd63afce0246a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Regional Bank Stocks Higher, Westpac Bancorp Up Over 12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Regional Bank Stocks Higher, Westpac Bancorp Up Over 12%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-03 21:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3rd, regional bank stocks in U.S. stocks rose, and the West<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>U.S. Bank rose more than 12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>It rose more than 6%, and Keycor rose more than 4%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1146171d044fd40875dd63afce0246a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","PACW":"西太平洋合众银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134522599","content_text":"5月3日，美股区域性银行股走高，西太平洋合众银行涨超12%，阿莱恩斯西部银行涨超6%，Keycor涨超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9,"WAL":0.9,"PACW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":658782704,"gmtCreate":1683122078710,"gmtModify":1683122078710,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄……","listText":"😄……","text":"😄……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/658782704","repostId":"658736282","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":658736282,"gmtCreate":1683099464748,"gmtModify":1683100219457,"author":{"id":"3584601135248739","authorId":"3584601135248739","name":"說財經","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04688e1b17fa48f8b7d743d5fa7b3047","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584601135248739","idStr":"3584601135248739"},"themes":[],"title":"馬斯克的重中之重–儲能，不只是電池？ 亞洲市場遊戲轉儲能概念","htmlText":"\n \n \n  今天有富邦的吳方俊Alan來聊下富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405)，主題性的ETF除去了主題以外，其實有很重要的選股送稿，我們請來產品的幕後創作者聊一下，選股票投資總刊，感覺推爾廣知能幫助到大家去判斷很多ETF的選擇。特斯拉將在上海啓動一個超大型的電池廠，並計劃年產Megapack電池1萬臺，特斯拉稱，一臺Megapack電池儲量的能量平均爲3600一個家庭提供電一小時，那麼很好簡單的數據了，如果產品能有1萬臺，那麼能提供多少家庭的供電？當然更重要的是，馬克看中的儲能爲什麼也是接下來投資市場，需要要熱切注意的地方？另外，跟進下富邦滬深港高股息(3190)、以及富邦臺灣半導體(3076)，前者六月中派消息！一年了，表現超班。0:00 節目開始1:03 Tesla(TSLA)上海建超儲能工廠/電池是儲能的一部分5:08 儲能迎面而來要求挽張機遇，馬斯克看中的背後原因10:43 儲能應用是很大廣泛/全球儲能市場預測期延長15:38 全球電池儲能需求/電池儲能技術種類21:03 亞洲電池及儲能科技指數，大中華地區、韓國、日本，誰更強24:52 成份股今年首季表現現寧德時代(300750) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">$寧德時代(300750)$</a> 27:52 最新十大持股/富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03405\">$富邦亞洲電池儲能(03405)$</a> 37:03 富邦滬深股息ETF(3190) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03190\">$富邦滬深港高股息(03190)$</a> 40:08 中特估帶動3190？中國中車(1766)/中移動(0941) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\"></a>\n \n","listText":"今天有富邦的吳方俊Alan來聊下富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405)，主題性的ETF除去了主題以外，其實有很重要的選股送稿，我們請來產品的幕後創作者聊一下，選股票投資總刊，感覺推爾廣知能幫助到大家去判斷很多ETF的選擇。特斯拉將在上海啓動一個超大型的電池廠，並計劃年產Megapack電池1萬臺，特斯拉稱，一臺Megapack電池儲量的能量平均爲3600一個家庭提供電一小時，那麼很好簡單的數據了，如果產品能有1萬臺，那麼能提供多少家庭的供電？當然更重要的是，馬克看中的儲能爲什麼也是接下來投資市場，需要要熱切注意的地方？另外，跟進下富邦滬深港高股息(3190)、以及富邦臺灣半導體(3076)，前者六月中派消息！一年了，表現超班。0:00 節目開始1:03 Tesla(TSLA)上海建超儲能工廠/電池是儲能的一部分5:08 儲能迎面而來要求挽張機遇，馬斯克看中的背後原因10:43 儲能應用是很大廣泛/全球儲能市場預測期延長15:38 全球電池儲能需求/電池儲能技術種類21:03 亞洲電池及儲能科技指數，大中華地區、韓國、日本，誰更強24:52 成份股今年首季表現現寧德時代(300750) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">$寧德時代(300750)$</a> 27:52 最新十大持股/富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03405\">$富邦亞洲電池儲能(03405)$</a> 37:03 富邦滬深股息ETF(3190) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03190\">$富邦滬深港高股息(03190)$</a> 40:08 中特估帶動3190？中國中車(1766)/中移動(0941) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00941\"></a>","text":"今天有富邦的吳方俊Alan來聊下富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405)，主題性的ETF除去了主題以外，其實有很重要的選股送稿，我們請來產品的幕後創作者聊一下，選股票投資總刊，感覺推爾廣知能幫助到大家去判斷很多ETF的選擇。特斯拉將在上海啓動一個超大型的電池廠，並計劃年產Megapack電池1萬臺，特斯拉稱，一臺Megapack電池儲量的能量平均爲3600一個家庭提供電一小時，那麼很好簡單的數據了，如果產品能有1萬臺，那麼能提供多少家庭的供電？當然更重要的是，馬克看中的儲能爲什麼也是接下來投資市場，需要要熱切注意的地方？另外，跟進下富邦滬深港高股息(3190)、以及富邦臺灣半導體(3076)，前者六月中派消息！一年了，表現超班。0:00 節目開始1:03 Tesla(TSLA)上海建超儲能工廠/電池是儲能的一部分5:08 儲能迎面而來要求挽張機遇，馬斯克看中的背後原因10:43 儲能應用是很大廣泛/全球儲能市場預測期延長15:38 全球電池儲能需求/電池儲能技術種類21:03 亞洲電池及儲能科技指數，大中華地區、韓國、日本，誰更強24:52 成份股今年首季表現現寧德時代(300750) $寧德時代(300750)$ 27:52 最新十大持股/富邦亞洲電池能源ETF(3405) $富邦亞洲電池儲能(03405)$ 37:03 富邦滬深股息ETF(3190) $富邦滬深港高股息(03190)$ 40:08 中特估帶動3190？中國中車(1766)/中移動(0941)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bc49af2a10c81c85c0bb06330d528d","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/658736282","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"ffc81084e2724601b9aeaafa284ba3dd","tweetId":"658736282","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b741d586vodhk1254107296/ee1070b7243791581592545417/cyO4TS7ksjMA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bc49af2a10c81c85c0bb06330d528d"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":658786142,"gmtCreate":1683121724388,"gmtModify":1683121724388,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤓","listText":"🤓","text":"🤓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/658786142","repostId":"1161273809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161273809","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683117001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161273809?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | The Fed's interest rate drama will be staged tonight, or it will usher in the last rate hike! Estee Lauder tumbles 15% as earnings thunderstorm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161273809","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：4月“小非农”数据远超预期，美股股指期货上涨；财报欠佳，雅诗兰黛跌超15%、AMD跌超7%、星巴克前跌超5%；欧洲主要股指涨多跌少，国际油价下跌。5月3日，美股股指期货上涨，道指期货涨0.11%","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Abstract: In April, the \"small non-agricultural\" data far exceeded expectations, and US stock index futures rose; Poor earnings reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>fell more than 15%, AMD fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It fell by more than 5% before; Major European stock indexes rose more than they fell, and international oil prices fell.</strong>On May 3rd, U.S. stock index futures rose, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 index rising by 0.24% and Nasdaq futures rising by 0.28%.<strong>At 2: 00 am on Thursday, Beijing time, FOMC of the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement in May; At 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73094c8efd6d20a56587d8a20cef402e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"200\"/></p><p>At present, people in the industry generally expect that the Federal Reserve will have the tenth consecutive rate hike in this sleepless night of interest rate discussion tonight, and this is likely to be the last rate hike \"pawn\" in this round of Federal Reserve tightening cycle. At present, the market expects the probability of the Fed rate hike 25 basis points to 5%-5.25% tonight to be as high as 88.7%, while the probability of not rate hike is only 11.3%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27198c0487c80ae935f55cced1d6346\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1940\" tg-height=\"960\"/></p><p><strong>Pre-market News</strong></p><p>The \"small non-farm\" data in April far exceeded expectations, with ADP employment in the United States at 296,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>Estee Lauder's fiscal third-quarter net sales of $3.76 billion, compared with expectations of $3.71 billion; The company lowered its fiscal year outlook, forecasting a 10% to 12% decline in full-year net sales.<strong>(Estee Lauder fell more than 15% before the market)</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e88cee406b6a71f0170aceeb384bd18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>The adjusted earnings per share range for the fiscal year is expected to be $8.50-$8.70, compared with the previous estimate of $8.70-$8.90.<strong>(CVS Health fell more than 2% premarket)</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>Late-stage trials of Alzheimer's disease drug Donanemab treatment have achieved positive results, with a 35% slowdown in clinical decline compared to placebo. Eli Lilly CEO: It is expected that the Alzheimer's disease drug Donanemab will be fully approved before the end of the year.<strong>(Eli Lilly rose more than 5% before the market)</strong></p><p>U.S. Treasury Department: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will attend the G7 Treasury Secretary Meeting in Niigata, Japan, May 11-13.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Sales of the Model 3 long-range version have resumed in the United States, and the price has dropped by more than $10,000 compared with last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Talks are under way to open the first chip factory in Germany for up to 10 billion euros.</p><p>S&P: Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>The rating was downgraded to CC from B +, followed by further withdrawal of its rating.</p><p>It is reported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The Mustang Mach E is being reopened for reservations, with some versions reduced by as much as 8%, the second price cut this year.</p><p>Faraday Future confirms receipt of an additional 180-day grace period from Nasdaq to meet the Nasdaq minimum buy share price requirement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>It is said that the yield of its 4nm chip process has improved, close to the level of 5nm. According to industry sources, Samsung's 4nm process is comparable to TSMC, and it began to get orders from major customers such as AMD.</p><p><strong>Premarket Quotes</strong></p><p>AMD fell more than 7% before the market, Q1 revenue fell 9% year-on-year, and the median Q2 revenue guidance of $5.3 billion was lower than analysts' expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It fell more than 5% before the market, and the Q2 results of fiscal 2023 were better than market expectations. However, based on consumer behavior and international travel uncertainty, the company decided to reaffirm its full-year performance guidance.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLN\">Haleon</a>It fell more than 2% premarket, missed Q1 EPS expectations and operating margin fell to 23.1% year over year.</p><p>After the share price was cut in half in one day, Chegg rose by more than 5% before the market. The company acknowledges that the technological advances of generative AI have had a direct impact on the company's performance. Affected by the news, the stock fell more than 48% on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUMC\">Yum China</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and Q1 profits far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><strong>European market</strong></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose more than they fell. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.66%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.55%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb50cdaa06bb11b660a6b6ebe768dfd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"357\"/></p><p><strong>crude oil</strong></p><p>International oil prices fell, with U.S. oil reported at $69.66/barrel, a decrease of 2.79% in the day; Brent oil is now traded at $73.28/barrel, down 2.71% in the day.</p><p>The market is worried that further rate hike by the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the risk of recession, and the market is concerned about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Concerns about the industry crisis and debt default crisis also hit the demand outlook. Oil prices plummeted by more than 5% overnight, and the short-term oil market was biased to short. This trading day will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, and investors need to pay attention to the impact of this event on market sentiment. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory series data released in the evening.</p><p><strong>Gold</strong></p><p>Spot gold rose 0.07% during the day at $2,024.45/oz.</p><p>The market is generally waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this trading day. The market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the overall trading is relatively light. After the gold price rose overnight, the short-term bullish signal increased, and it is expected to explore the resistance near the recent high of 2048. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, there are also \"small non-agricultural\" U.S. ADP employment data in April and U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI data in April, which investors need to pay attention to.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | The Fed's interest rate drama will be staged tonight, or it will usher in the last rate hike! Estee Lauder tumbles 15% as earnings thunderstorm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | The Fed's interest rate drama will be staged tonight, or it will usher in the last rate hike! Estee Lauder tumbles 15% as earnings thunderstorm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-03 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Abstract: In April, the \"small non-agricultural\" data far exceeded expectations, and US stock index futures rose; Poor earnings reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EL\">Estee Lauder</a>fell more than 15%, AMD fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It fell by more than 5% before; Major European stock indexes rose more than they fell, and international oil prices fell.</strong>On May 3rd, U.S. stock index futures rose, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 index rising by 0.24% and Nasdaq futures rising by 0.28%.<strong>At 2: 00 am on Thursday, Beijing time, FOMC of the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement in May; At 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73094c8efd6d20a56587d8a20cef402e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"200\"/></p><p>At present, people in the industry generally expect that the Federal Reserve will have the tenth consecutive rate hike in this sleepless night of interest rate discussion tonight, and this is likely to be the last rate hike \"pawn\" in this round of Federal Reserve tightening cycle. At present, the market expects the probability of the Fed rate hike 25 basis points to 5%-5.25% tonight to be as high as 88.7%, while the probability of not rate hike is only 11.3%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27198c0487c80ae935f55cced1d6346\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1940\" tg-height=\"960\"/></p><p><strong>Pre-market News</strong></p><p>The \"small non-farm\" data in April far exceeded expectations, with ADP employment in the United States at 296,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>Estee Lauder's fiscal third-quarter net sales of $3.76 billion, compared with expectations of $3.71 billion; The company lowered its fiscal year outlook, forecasting a 10% to 12% decline in full-year net sales.<strong>(Estee Lauder fell more than 15% before the market)</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e88cee406b6a71f0170aceeb384bd18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVS\">CVS Health</a>The adjusted earnings per share range for the fiscal year is expected to be $8.50-$8.70, compared with the previous estimate of $8.70-$8.90.<strong>(CVS Health fell more than 2% premarket)</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Lilly</a>Late-stage trials of Alzheimer's disease drug Donanemab treatment have achieved positive results, with a 35% slowdown in clinical decline compared to placebo. Eli Lilly CEO: It is expected that the Alzheimer's disease drug Donanemab will be fully approved before the end of the year.<strong>(Eli Lilly rose more than 5% before the market)</strong></p><p>U.S. Treasury Department: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will attend the G7 Treasury Secretary Meeting in Niigata, Japan, May 11-13.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Sales of the Model 3 long-range version have resumed in the United States, and the price has dropped by more than $10,000 compared with last year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Talks are under way to open the first chip factory in Germany for up to 10 billion euros.</p><p>S&P: Will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>The rating was downgraded to CC from B +, followed by further withdrawal of its rating.</p><p>It is reported<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The Mustang Mach E is being reopened for reservations, with some versions reduced by as much as 8%, the second price cut this year.</p><p>Faraday Future confirms receipt of an additional 180-day grace period from Nasdaq to meet the Nasdaq minimum buy share price requirement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>It is said that the yield of its 4nm chip process has improved, close to the level of 5nm. According to industry sources, Samsung's 4nm process is comparable to TSMC, and it began to get orders from major customers such as AMD.</p><p><strong>Premarket Quotes</strong></p><p>AMD fell more than 7% before the market, Q1 revenue fell 9% year-on-year, and the median Q2 revenue guidance of $5.3 billion was lower than analysts' expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>It fell more than 5% before the market, and the Q2 results of fiscal 2023 were better than market expectations. However, based on consumer behavior and international travel uncertainty, the company decided to reaffirm its full-year performance guidance.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLN\">Haleon</a>It fell more than 2% premarket, missed Q1 EPS expectations and operating margin fell to 23.1% year over year.</p><p>After the share price was cut in half in one day, Chegg rose by more than 5% before the market. The company acknowledges that the technological advances of generative AI have had a direct impact on the company's performance. Affected by the news, the stock fell more than 48% on Tuesday.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YUMC\">Yum China</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and Q1 profits far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><strong>European market</strong></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose more than they fell. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.66%, and France's CAC40 rose 0.55%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb50cdaa06bb11b660a6b6ebe768dfd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"357\"/></p><p><strong>crude oil</strong></p><p>International oil prices fell, with U.S. oil reported at $69.66/barrel, a decrease of 2.79% in the day; Brent oil is now traded at $73.28/barrel, down 2.71% in the day.</p><p>The market is worried that further rate hike by the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the risk of recession, and the market is concerned about<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Concerns about the industry crisis and debt default crisis also hit the demand outlook. Oil prices plummeted by more than 5% overnight, and the short-term oil market was biased to short. This trading day will usher in the Fed's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, and investors need to pay attention to the impact of this event on market sentiment. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory series data released in the evening.</p><p><strong>Gold</strong></p><p>Spot gold rose 0.07% during the day at $2,024.45/oz.</p><p>The market is generally waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this trading day. The market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the overall trading is relatively light. After the gold price rose overnight, the short-term bullish signal increased, and it is expected to explore the resistance near the recent high of 2048. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, there are also \"small non-agricultural\" U.S. ADP employment data in April and U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI data in April, which investors need to pay attention to.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","EL":"雅诗兰黛","SBUX":"星巴克","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","LLY":"礼来","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4558":"双十一","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","AMD":"美国超微公司",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161273809","content_text":"摘要：4月“小非农”数据远超预期，美股股指期货上涨；财报欠佳，雅诗兰黛跌超15%、AMD跌超7%、星巴克前跌超5%；欧洲主要股指涨多跌少，国际油价下跌。5月3日，美股股指期货上涨，道指期货涨0.11%，标普500指数涨0.24%，纳指期货涨0.28%。北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储FOMC将公布5月利率决议及政策声明；2:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。目前，业内人士普遍预计美联储将在今晚的这个议息不眠夜连续第十次加息，而这很可能也将是本轮美联储紧缩周期落下的最后一枚加息“棋子”。目前市场预计美联储在今晚加息25个基点至5%-5.25%的概率高达88.7%，不加息的概率则仅为11.3%。盘前要闻4月“小非农”数据远超预期，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。雅诗兰黛第三财季净销售额37.6亿美元，预期37.1亿美元；公司下调财年业绩预期，预计全年净销售额下降10%至12%。（雅诗兰黛盘前跌超15%）CVS健康预计财年经调整后每股收益区间在8.50~8.70美元，此前预期为8.70~8.90美元。（CVS健康盘前跌逾2%）礼来阿尔茨海默病药物Donanemab治疗的后期试验取得了积极成果，与安慰剂相比临床衰退速度减慢了35%。礼来CEO：预计阿尔茨海默病药物Donanemab将在年底前获得全面批准。（礼来盘前涨超5%）美国财政部：美国财长耶伦将参加5月11日至13日在日本新泻举行的七国集团财长会议。特斯拉在美国恢复销售Model 3长续航版，价格比去年降了1万多美元。台积电正在就斥资高达100亿欧元在德国开设首家芯片工厂进行谈判。标普：将第一共和银行评级从B+下调至CC，随后进一步撤销其评级。据悉福特汽车正在重新开放Mustang Mach E预定，某些版本降价幅度高达8%，为今年来第二次降价。法拉第未来确认收到纳斯达克额外180天的宽限期，以满足纳斯达克最低买入股价要求。三星称其4纳米芯片制程良率已改善、接近5纳米的水准。业界人士称，三星4纳米制程已可媲美台积电，开始获得AMD等大客户订单。盘前行情AMD盘前跌超7%，Q1营收同比下滑9%，Q2营收指引中值53亿美元低于分析师预期。星巴克盘前跌超5%，2023财年Q2业绩好于市场预期，但基于消费者行为及国际旅游不确定性，公司决定重申全年业绩指引。Haleon盘前跌超2%，第一季度每股收益低于预期，营业利润率同比下降至23.1％。股价一日腰斩后，Chegg盘前涨超5%。公司承认生成式人工智能的技术进步，对公司业绩产生了直接冲击。受此消息影响，周二该股下挫超48%。百胜中国盘前涨近3%，Q1利润远超市场预期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指涨多跌少，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数涨0.66%，法国CAC40涨0.55%。原油国际油价下跌，美油报69.66美元/桶，日内跌幅2.79%；布油现报73.28美元/桶，日内跌幅2.71%。市场担忧美联储进一步加息，会加剧经济衰退风险，而且市场对美国银行业危机和债务违约危机的担忧也打击需求前景，隔夜油价大跌逾5%，短线油市偏向空头。本交易日将迎来美联储利率决议和美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，投资者需要留意该事件对市场情绪的影响。关注晚间出炉的EIA原油库存系列数据。黄金现货黄金日内涨0.07%，报2,024.45美元/盎司。市场普遍等待本交易日的美联储利率决议和美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会，市场观望情绪较浓，整体交投比较清淡。隔夜金价大涨后，短线看涨信号有所增加，有望上探近期高点2048附近阻力。在美联储利率决议前，还有“小非农”美国4月ADP就业数据和美国4月ISM非制造业PMI数据，投资者需要予以关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"LLY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"EL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"PSQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":687889506,"gmtCreate":1660873317008,"gmtModify":1676536752463,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market changes | ChatGPT concept stocks in U.S. stocks soar! Faraday Future jumps more than 30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193770494","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月6日，美股指期货震荡走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.44%，纳指期货跌0.75%，标普500指数期货跌0.57%。热门中概股盘前多数走低，爱奇艺跌超4%，高途、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，蔚来、小鹏汽车跌超2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 6th, U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.44%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.75%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.57%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c58b0bb3c6f79fc048082f64de4bd4\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>ChatGPT concept stocks surged premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOUN\">SoundHound</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBAI\">BigBear</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZFD\">BuzzFeed</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai</a>It rose by more than 6%;</p><p>Some WSB concept stocks moved higher premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Up nearly 5%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose by more than 2% before the market, and just three weeks after the last price cut, Tesla raised the US price of the Model Y again;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>It rose by more than 30% before the market, after announcing a financing of US$135 million, and FF91 Futurist will be delivered before the end of April;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>Falling more than 6% premarket, the company confirmed it had made a non-binding proposal to Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining to acquire 100% of its outstanding shares.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market changes | ChatGPT concept stocks in U.S. stocks soar! Faraday Future jumps more than 30%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market changes | ChatGPT concept stocks in U.S. stocks soar! Faraday Future jumps more than 30%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-02-06 17:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 6th, U.S. stock index futures fluctuated lower. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.44%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.75%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.57%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c58b0bb3c6f79fc048082f64de4bd4\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>ChatGPT concept stocks surged premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOUN\">SoundHound</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBAI\">BigBear</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZFD\">BuzzFeed</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai</a>It rose by more than 6%;</p><p>Some WSB concept stocks moved higher premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinema</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Up nearly 5%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose by more than 2% before the market, and just three weeks after the last price cut, Tesla raised the US price of the Model Y again;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>It rose by more than 30% before the market, after announcing a financing of US$135 million, and FF91 Futurist will be delivered before the end of April;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>Falling more than 6% premarket, the company confirmed it had made a non-binding proposal to Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining to acquire 100% of its outstanding shares.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","AMC":"AMC院线","JD":"京东","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","NIO":"蔚来","GOTU":"高途","NEM":"纽曼矿业","IQ":"爱奇艺","TSLA":"特斯拉","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PDD":"拼多多","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","AMC.AU":"AMCOR PLC-CDI"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193770494","content_text":"2月6日，美股指期货震荡走低，截止发稿，道指期货跌0.44%，纳指期货跌0.75%，标普500指数期货跌0.57%。热门中概股盘前多数走低，爱奇艺跌超4%，高途、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，蔚来、小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东均跌超1%；ChatGPT概念股盘前大涨，SoundHound涨超15%，BigBear涨超11%，BuzzFeed、C3.ai涨超6%；部分WSB概念股盘前走高，AMC院线、Express涨超10%，黑莓涨近5%；特斯拉盘前涨超2%，距离上次降价仅仅三周，特斯拉又上调了Model Y的美国售价；法拉第未来盘前大涨超30%，此前宣布达成1.35亿美元融资，FF91 Futurist将于4月底前交付；纽曼矿业盘前跌超6%，公司证实已向澳大利亚金矿公司Newcrest Mining提出无约束力提案，拟收购其100%已发行股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC.AU":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"JD":0.9,"BBRY":0.9,"IQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"GOTU":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"NEM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626469332,"gmtCreate":1674721005728,"gmtModify":1676538955258,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626469332","repostId":"1105959249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105959249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1674693149,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105959249?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-26 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Full Speech | Elon Musk Announces Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105959249","media":"瓦砾村夫","summary":"1月25日，埃隆·马斯克在位于内华达雷诺市的特斯拉超级工厂宣布了重磅扩建计划。特斯拉计划追加至少35亿美元投资，在内华达超级工厂新建一家4680电池工厂和一家Semi半挂电动卡车工厂。内华达州州长Jo","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Jan. 25, Elon Musk announced plans for a blockbuster expansion at Tesla's Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. Tesla plans to invest at least $3.5 billion in additional investments to build a new 4680 battery factory and a Semi semi-electric truck factory at the Nevada Gigafactory. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo attended the event and delivered remarks.</p><p><b>Full text of the speech</b></p><p><b>Elon:</b>Okay, let me first thank each of you for your hard work and just want to express my infinite admiration and appreciation for all you have done to build the Nevada Gigafactory and help revolutionize the world.</p><p>You should be proud that this plant has made a huge impact on the world's transition to sustainable energy, and I am incredibly proud of what you have done.</p><p>We at Tesla built this factory and we made incredible progress, we achieved huge output of batteries, drive units, power electronics, stationary battery packs. Our results don't stop there.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7290539ed36c856950b41c4b19fc4501\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It's hard to believe that we started building this place, almost a decade ago. I remember coming here to the industrial center of Tahorino, with its interesting name (TRIC), when there was nothing but stones around. And now, we have built this amazing factory, which is the most advanced battery cell and powertrain factory in the world. That's right, more powertrains than stones.</p><p>In fact, I took a little time to look back, I used to spend so much time at this factory. I once camped in a small tent on the roof and to save time going to the hotel I set up a small tent on the roof and stayed there. It's really cold at night (laughs).</p><p>But come here and look at all the snow on the ground, this area we are in is so beautiful, and those wild horses. Sometimes, people don't believe what I say, it's basically like heaven here. There are ten thousand wild horses roaming around, I think, snow on the top of the mountain, and Lake Tahoe nearby.</p><p>By the way, the above paragraph, partly for recruitment... (Laughs) Because we need a lot of talent. So be sure to talk to your friends and family about coming here to work because we're going to scale up dramatically and it's going to be great here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ff0f556c74c2bd4bc4e49cbc70af05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It's interesting to look at the original goal. At the time, it was thought that this was a crazy goal for battery production.</p><p>In fact, at the beginning of our creation, we set the goal for this factory to produce more lithium batteries than the rest of the globe combined.</p><p>It remains by far the largest facility in North America.</p><p>The reason we built it is that lithium batteries are really not enough. If you count the output of all factories worldwide, the amount of lithium batteries isn't enough to support mass production of electric vehicles either. That's why we came to the conclusion that we had to build a factory, a really huge factory, and that's where the name \"super\" factory came from.</p><p>Currently, it is one of the largest factories in the world, and it will get even bigger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2d5c4758f1f4318ef88fe054189228\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2014, we set an estimated capacity of 35 million kWh of battery cells, which we have already achieved. We have completed a total investment of $6.2 billion, over 5 million square feet of space, 11,000 team members.</p><p>We own 3,200 acres of land and to date we still only use a fraction of it. We have plenty of room to expand.</p><p>I should say that what I announced today is not actually the end of all this, but only the second phase, and there will be a third and a fourth phase in the future. Indeed, we need a lot of output for the world to transition to sustainable energy. If we are to push the world towards a sustainable energy future, we have to have several giant factories, which is great.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df623ae30950775374937a6c74b74254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The current progress is that we have produced more than 7 billion cells, which is more than the global population. We have produced over 3.5 million drive units, motors and power electronics. We have produced 1 million energy modules for stationary energy storage.</p><p>Yes, I always remind everyone that we also make stationary energy storage, and that's important.</p><p>The future of sustainable energy, three elements, three pillars are electric vehicles, stationary energy storage, and solar and wind energy. Because solar and wind energy are intermittent, you need stationary energy storage to store electricity when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. Quite simply, these are the three pillars.</p><p>These are extremely feasible and will be achieved, and then we can take civilization to a sustainable energy future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8884b32fc2e36504971e54f1a4b552\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of economic impact, the factory is also extremely impressive, with a total economic output of $6 billion per year.</p><p>We've also committed $37 million to K-12 education, and we're going to increase that. Education focuses on robotics and sustainability development.</p><p>Well, thank you again for your outstanding work to get us to where we are. Thank you guys!</p><p>In this photo, we just produced the millionth energy module last Wednesday. Even if I repeat it, I want to say, thank you very much!</p><p>All of this, just the beginning, well, at least the first phase. What we're going to announce today is a massive additional investment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29f25435c608d0061bb12aa23f4d412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Here's a teaser of what the new factory will look like. Yes, it looks, handsome!</p><p>Another thing that is also cool is that we achieved our production goals with only half of the space we thought we needed at the time, and now, we're going to make the most of the other half. We are working on the second phase of work.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e559ea67a6b743ca38b65a896a5b54e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We're going to invest, and I should say, those are conservative numbers, and we expect to exceed those numbers, and I think we're going to end up investing more than $4 billion. We will add 4 million square feet of production space, as well as at least 3,000 direct jobs. And I think it is likely that it will eventually be exceeded, and these are conservative estimates.</p><p>Yes, we will do high-volume semi-trailer production here, and then, we will also add 100 million kWh of Tesla 4680 battery capacity here. This is just the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8803e733409f3f7760baeef847c7e09c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan: Expand a 4680 battery plant (green) and a Semi production plant (blue) next to the original plant (purple)</i></p><p>I think in the long term, we could reach up to 500 million kWh of capacity. But this time the incremental capacity is 100 million kWh, yes, extremely important, game changing factor.</p><p>Here is a video of some 4680 battery production.</p><p>As I said, we expect the new battery factory to have a capacity of at least 100 million kWh. And as I said, this is really just the beginning.</p><p>In the long run, Tesla's capacity target is well above 1 billion kWh, possibly 2 billion or 3 billion kWh, which is really just the beginning.</p><p>And this battery production capacity is equivalent to adding 1.5 million Model 3/Y cars. Moreover, stationary storage will also use 4680 batteries. To be clear, this is outside of the battery supply based on our suppliers.</p><p>Considering the fact that there are 2 billion cars and trucks on the roads worldwide, it is clear that we have to produce a lot of electric cars to replace all petrol cars. Then, again for sustainable energy, we need to produce as much stationary energy storage as possible. In fact, it feels incredible to think of it all.</p><p>And then, yes, some people say it's impossible to do, but you can drive this car. In fact, some of our major customers like Pepsi, are already using Tesla Semi semi-trailers.</p><p>We'll have limited production of the Semi semi-trailer this year, and then, hopefully, sometime next year, we'll be able to achieve mass production. It was a game changer.</p><p>Although Semi semi-trailers only account for 1% of the total number of vehicles, they actually account for 20% of carbon emissions, and its impact is far greater than the number of vehicles you see. This is an important part of a sustainable energy future.</p><p>And this car is a beast. You can see it loaded up and climbing, pretty cool.</p><p>And, I want to say to Nevada, thank you so much! I would like to invite Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo to the stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d70710df9a09bba71844778b558feaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>Joe and Elon</i></p><p><b>Joe:</b>Okay, first and foremost, you guys look awesome!</p><p>I want to thank Elon, I want to thank Elon for his cooperation and for helping to improve your lives, my life, and change the world. Thank you and please applaud Elon.</p><p>First of all, I thank you all for getting together today and giving me the opportunity to say hello. I hope some of you here saw my State of the State statement last night, did anyone? Hopefully I said something to make you guys happy, to make you guys happy, and I think I will.</p><p>So, what is my role in this topic we're talking about today? Obviously, Elon's goal is to change the world and my goal is to change your lives.</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Well, I just wanted to clarify that I got a plethora of praise and the credit goes to them.</p><p><b>Joe:</b>Well, I understand that.</p><p>Elon talked about the three pillars of electric energy, right, electric vehicles, energy storage, wind and solar. And as governor, my three pillars are the economy, education and your quality of life, which is public safety. All for these three pillars.</p><p>Obviously, the driving force of the economy comes from Tesla, which is changing the environment and changing your lives and lives in Nevada, as you settle in Nevada.</p><p>And today, with this scale-up of production, it will even double the quality of life and the economic engine, and double the driving force that drives success throughout Nevada, particularly in the northern Nevada region.</p><p>There's a young man in the audience who just joined my team, Tom Burns, can you come on stage?</p><p>(Asks Elon) Is that okay, if you don't mind?</p><p>You guys in the back row can't see him, he's a little short, but Tom is the new director of the Governor's Office of Economic Development. He played an important role in working with Tesla to ensure that this project landed, the factory was built, and that it would survive for the long haul in the future.</p><p>Thank you, Tom!</p><p>It's the economic backbone, right, it's the economic backbone. And the education pillar, for the workers, for the engineers and everyone else who supports this community, especially with big visions like Tesla, needs to have an education system in universities to train people to hold these positions.</p><p>I would point out that there is a very important person in the audience, he is former Governor Sandoval, please come on stage!</p><p>As you may not know, he is also president of the University of Nevada at Reno, where many of you here might want to attend.</p><p>The president of the University of Nevada Las Vegas was here just now, but he left afterwards, which kind of hurt me because I'm from the University of Nevada Las Vegas and I wish there was more competition. But I appreciate Brian Sandoval's arrival.</p><p>Brian Sandoval and Elon had a handshake agreement a few years ago that kicked this off. Thank you, Brian, for your support!</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Thank you!</p><p><b>Joe:</b>The last pillar is your quality of life, i.e. safety, especially I-80 here.</p><p>Tracy, Tracy, can I ask Tracy to come on stage? Tracy Larkin, Please come up.</p><p>Who's shorter, Tom or Tracy?</p><p>For all of you in the back row, here is a young lady who is the new director of the Department of Transportation. I told her that her main task was to expand I-80, create a safe commute for you guys and make sure the Semi Semi trailer gets on the road and gets out of here, okay?</p><p>Okay, so that's what we're going to do for you, for the state of Nevada. And that's what I, as governor of Nevada, want to do for you.</p><p>Hopefully, we can work with you all as we move into the future and make sure we build a very, very, very long-term relationship where we can both be friends with each other. Thank you guys!</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Okay, thank you!</p><p>(above)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445a74721b7296f9bcee4971651bc797\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"1296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1649056886487","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Full Speech | Elon Musk Announces Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFull Speech | Elon Musk Announces Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">瓦砾村夫</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-26 08:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Jan. 25, Elon Musk announced plans for a blockbuster expansion at Tesla's Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. Tesla plans to invest at least $3.5 billion in additional investments to build a new 4680 battery factory and a Semi semi-electric truck factory at the Nevada Gigafactory. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo attended the event and delivered remarks.</p><p><b>Full text of the speech</b></p><p><b>Elon:</b>Okay, let me first thank each of you for your hard work and just want to express my infinite admiration and appreciation for all you have done to build the Nevada Gigafactory and help revolutionize the world.</p><p>You should be proud that this plant has made a huge impact on the world's transition to sustainable energy, and I am incredibly proud of what you have done.</p><p>We at Tesla built this factory and we made incredible progress, we achieved huge output of batteries, drive units, power electronics, stationary battery packs. Our results don't stop there.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7290539ed36c856950b41c4b19fc4501\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It's hard to believe that we started building this place, almost a decade ago. I remember coming here to the industrial center of Tahorino, with its interesting name (TRIC), when there was nothing but stones around. And now, we have built this amazing factory, which is the most advanced battery cell and powertrain factory in the world. That's right, more powertrains than stones.</p><p>In fact, I took a little time to look back, I used to spend so much time at this factory. I once camped in a small tent on the roof and to save time going to the hotel I set up a small tent on the roof and stayed there. It's really cold at night (laughs).</p><p>But come here and look at all the snow on the ground, this area we are in is so beautiful, and those wild horses. Sometimes, people don't believe what I say, it's basically like heaven here. There are ten thousand wild horses roaming around, I think, snow on the top of the mountain, and Lake Tahoe nearby.</p><p>By the way, the above paragraph, partly for recruitment... (Laughs) Because we need a lot of talent. So be sure to talk to your friends and family about coming here to work because we're going to scale up dramatically and it's going to be great here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ff0f556c74c2bd4bc4e49cbc70af05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It's interesting to look at the original goal. At the time, it was thought that this was a crazy goal for battery production.</p><p>In fact, at the beginning of our creation, we set the goal for this factory to produce more lithium batteries than the rest of the globe combined.</p><p>It remains by far the largest facility in North America.</p><p>The reason we built it is that lithium batteries are really not enough. If you count the output of all factories worldwide, the amount of lithium batteries isn't enough to support mass production of electric vehicles either. That's why we came to the conclusion that we had to build a factory, a really huge factory, and that's where the name \"super\" factory came from.</p><p>Currently, it is one of the largest factories in the world, and it will get even bigger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2d5c4758f1f4318ef88fe054189228\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In 2014, we set an estimated capacity of 35 million kWh of battery cells, which we have already achieved. We have completed a total investment of $6.2 billion, over 5 million square feet of space, 11,000 team members.</p><p>We own 3,200 acres of land and to date we still only use a fraction of it. We have plenty of room to expand.</p><p>I should say that what I announced today is not actually the end of all this, but only the second phase, and there will be a third and a fourth phase in the future. Indeed, we need a lot of output for the world to transition to sustainable energy. If we are to push the world towards a sustainable energy future, we have to have several giant factories, which is great.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df623ae30950775374937a6c74b74254\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The current progress is that we have produced more than 7 billion cells, which is more than the global population. We have produced over 3.5 million drive units, motors and power electronics. We have produced 1 million energy modules for stationary energy storage.</p><p>Yes, I always remind everyone that we also make stationary energy storage, and that's important.</p><p>The future of sustainable energy, three elements, three pillars are electric vehicles, stationary energy storage, and solar and wind energy. Because solar and wind energy are intermittent, you need stationary energy storage to store electricity when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. Quite simply, these are the three pillars.</p><p>These are extremely feasible and will be achieved, and then we can take civilization to a sustainable energy future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8884b32fc2e36504971e54f1a4b552\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In terms of economic impact, the factory is also extremely impressive, with a total economic output of $6 billion per year.</p><p>We've also committed $37 million to K-12 education, and we're going to increase that. Education focuses on robotics and sustainability development.</p><p>Well, thank you again for your outstanding work to get us to where we are. Thank you guys!</p><p>In this photo, we just produced the millionth energy module last Wednesday. Even if I repeat it, I want to say, thank you very much!</p><p>All of this, just the beginning, well, at least the first phase. What we're going to announce today is a massive additional investment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29f25435c608d0061bb12aa23f4d412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Here's a teaser of what the new factory will look like. Yes, it looks, handsome!</p><p>Another thing that is also cool is that we achieved our production goals with only half of the space we thought we needed at the time, and now, we're going to make the most of the other half. We are working on the second phase of work.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e559ea67a6b743ca38b65a896a5b54e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>We're going to invest, and I should say, those are conservative numbers, and we expect to exceed those numbers, and I think we're going to end up investing more than $4 billion. We will add 4 million square feet of production space, as well as at least 3,000 direct jobs. And I think it is likely that it will eventually be exceeded, and these are conservative estimates.</p><p>Yes, we will do high-volume semi-trailer production here, and then, we will also add 100 million kWh of Tesla 4680 battery capacity here. This is just the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8803e733409f3f7760baeef847c7e09c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>Nevada Gigafactory Expansion Plan: Expand a 4680 battery plant (green) and a Semi production plant (blue) next to the original plant (purple)</i></p><p>I think in the long term, we could reach up to 500 million kWh of capacity. But this time the incremental capacity is 100 million kWh, yes, extremely important, game changing factor.</p><p>Here is a video of some 4680 battery production.</p><p>As I said, we expect the new battery factory to have a capacity of at least 100 million kWh. And as I said, this is really just the beginning.</p><p>In the long run, Tesla's capacity target is well above 1 billion kWh, possibly 2 billion or 3 billion kWh, which is really just the beginning.</p><p>And this battery production capacity is equivalent to adding 1.5 million Model 3/Y cars. Moreover, stationary storage will also use 4680 batteries. To be clear, this is outside of the battery supply based on our suppliers.</p><p>Considering the fact that there are 2 billion cars and trucks on the roads worldwide, it is clear that we have to produce a lot of electric cars to replace all petrol cars. Then, again for sustainable energy, we need to produce as much stationary energy storage as possible. In fact, it feels incredible to think of it all.</p><p>And then, yes, some people say it's impossible to do, but you can drive this car. In fact, some of our major customers like Pepsi, are already using Tesla Semi semi-trailers.</p><p>We'll have limited production of the Semi semi-trailer this year, and then, hopefully, sometime next year, we'll be able to achieve mass production. It was a game changer.</p><p>Although Semi semi-trailers only account for 1% of the total number of vehicles, they actually account for 20% of carbon emissions, and its impact is far greater than the number of vehicles you see. This is an important part of a sustainable energy future.</p><p>And this car is a beast. You can see it loaded up and climbing, pretty cool.</p><p>And, I want to say to Nevada, thank you so much! I would like to invite Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo to the stage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d70710df9a09bba71844778b558feaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><i>Joe and Elon</i></p><p><b>Joe:</b>Okay, first and foremost, you guys look awesome!</p><p>I want to thank Elon, I want to thank Elon for his cooperation and for helping to improve your lives, my life, and change the world. Thank you and please applaud Elon.</p><p>First of all, I thank you all for getting together today and giving me the opportunity to say hello. I hope some of you here saw my State of the State statement last night, did anyone? Hopefully I said something to make you guys happy, to make you guys happy, and I think I will.</p><p>So, what is my role in this topic we're talking about today? Obviously, Elon's goal is to change the world and my goal is to change your lives.</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Well, I just wanted to clarify that I got a plethora of praise and the credit goes to them.</p><p><b>Joe:</b>Well, I understand that.</p><p>Elon talked about the three pillars of electric energy, right, electric vehicles, energy storage, wind and solar. And as governor, my three pillars are the economy, education and your quality of life, which is public safety. All for these three pillars.</p><p>Obviously, the driving force of the economy comes from Tesla, which is changing the environment and changing your lives and lives in Nevada, as you settle in Nevada.</p><p>And today, with this scale-up of production, it will even double the quality of life and the economic engine, and double the driving force that drives success throughout Nevada, particularly in the northern Nevada region.</p><p>There's a young man in the audience who just joined my team, Tom Burns, can you come on stage?</p><p>(Asks Elon) Is that okay, if you don't mind?</p><p>You guys in the back row can't see him, he's a little short, but Tom is the new director of the Governor's Office of Economic Development. He played an important role in working with Tesla to ensure that this project landed, the factory was built, and that it would survive for the long haul in the future.</p><p>Thank you, Tom!</p><p>It's the economic backbone, right, it's the economic backbone. And the education pillar, for the workers, for the engineers and everyone else who supports this community, especially with big visions like Tesla, needs to have an education system in universities to train people to hold these positions.</p><p>I would point out that there is a very important person in the audience, he is former Governor Sandoval, please come on stage!</p><p>As you may not know, he is also president of the University of Nevada at Reno, where many of you here might want to attend.</p><p>The president of the University of Nevada Las Vegas was here just now, but he left afterwards, which kind of hurt me because I'm from the University of Nevada Las Vegas and I wish there was more competition. But I appreciate Brian Sandoval's arrival.</p><p>Brian Sandoval and Elon had a handshake agreement a few years ago that kicked this off. Thank you, Brian, for your support!</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Thank you!</p><p><b>Joe:</b>The last pillar is your quality of life, i.e. safety, especially I-80 here.</p><p>Tracy, Tracy, can I ask Tracy to come on stage? Tracy Larkin, Please come up.</p><p>Who's shorter, Tom or Tracy?</p><p>For all of you in the back row, here is a young lady who is the new director of the Department of Transportation. I told her that her main task was to expand I-80, create a safe commute for you guys and make sure the Semi Semi trailer gets on the road and gets out of here, okay?</p><p>Okay, so that's what we're going to do for you, for the state of Nevada. And that's what I, as governor of Nevada, want to do for you.</p><p>Hopefully, we can work with you all as we move into the future and make sure we build a very, very, very long-term relationship where we can both be friends with each other. Thank you guys!</p><p><b>Elon:</b>Okay, thank you!</p><p>(above)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445a74721b7296f9bcee4971651bc797\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"1296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aUcytodkKahB-gFmr3fZQw\">瓦砾村夫</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c968b365f388646563804246ec367","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aUcytodkKahB-gFmr3fZQw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105959249","content_text":"1月25日，埃隆·马斯克在位于内华达雷诺市的特斯拉超级工厂宣布了重磅扩建计划。特斯拉计划追加至少35亿美元投资，在内华达超级工厂新建一家4680电池工厂和一家Semi半挂电动卡车工厂。内华达州州长Joe Lombardo出席了活动并致辞。演讲全文埃隆：好的，让我首先感谢你们每一位的辛勤工作，对于你们为建立内华达超级工厂并帮助革新世界所作的一切, 我只想表达我的无限钦佩和赞赏。这家工厂对于世界向可持续能源过渡产生了巨大的影响，你们应该对此感到自豪，而我也为你们所做的事情感到无比自豪。我们特斯拉建立了这家工厂，取得了令人难以置信的进展，我们实现了电池，驱动单元，电力电子设备，固定电池组的巨大产出。我们的成绩不止于此。很难相信，我们开始建造这个地方，几乎已经是十年前的事了。我记得我来到这里的塔霍里诺工业中心，它的名字很有意思(译注：TRIC)，那时候什么都没有，四周只有石头。而现在，我们已经建造了这座神奇的工厂，它是世界上最先进的电池电芯和动力系统工厂。没错，比石头还多的动力系统。事实上，我花了一点时间回顾，我曾经在这家工厂花了这么多时间。我有一次在屋顶上的一个小帐篷里露营，为了省下去酒店的时间，我在屋顶搭了一个小帐篷，住在那里。晚上真够冷的（笑）。但来到这里，看看地上所有的积雪，我们所处的这个地区是如此的美丽，还有那些野马。有时候，人们不相信我说的，这里基本上就像天堂一样。我想，周围有一万匹野马在游荡，山顶上有积雪，附近有塔霍湖。顺便说一下，以上这段，一部分是为了招聘... （笑）因为我们需要大量的人才。因此，务必和你的朋友和家人们谈谈来这里工作的事情，因为我们将急剧扩大规模，这里会变得很棒。看看最初的目标，很有意思。当时，人们认为这是电池生产的一个疯狂目标。事实上，创建之初，我们为这家工厂设定的目标是，生产比全球其他地方的总和更多的锂电池。目前为止，它仍然是北美最大的工厂。我们建造它的原因是，锂电池的确不够用。如果你把全球所有工厂的产出都算上，锂电池的量也不足以支撑大规模生产电动汽车。这就是为什么我们得出结论，我们必须建造一家工厂，一家真正巨大的工厂，这就是“超级”工厂的名字由来。目前，它是世界上最大的工厂之一，而且它将变得更为庞大。2014年，我们设定的预计产能为3500万千瓦时电池电芯，而我们已经实现了这一目标。我们已经完成了62亿美元的投资总额，超过500万平方英尺的空间，11000名团队成员。我们拥有3200英亩的土地，而迄今为止我们仍然只使用了其中一小部分。我们有足够的空间进行扩张。我应该说，我今天所宣布的其实并不是这一切的终点，而只是第二阶段，将来还会有第三第四阶段。的确如此，我们需要大量的产出，才能让世界过渡到可持续能源。如果我们要把世界推向可持续能源的未来，就必须要有若干家巨型的工厂，这很棒。目前的进展是，我们已经生产了超过70亿个电芯，比全球人口数还多。我们已经生产了超过350万个驱动单元，电机和电力电子设备。我们已经生产了100万个用于固定式储能的能源模块。没错，我总在提醒大家，我们也生产固定式储能，那很重要。可持续能源的未来，三个要素，三大支柱是电动汽车，固定式储能，以及太阳能和风能。因为太阳能和风能是间歇性的，你需要固定式储能，以便在风不吹拂，太阳不闪耀的时候储存电力。很简单，这就是三大支柱。这些都是极为可行的，并且都会实现，然后，我们才能把文明带往一个可持续能源的未来。而就经济影响而言，这家工厂也极为可观，每年60亿美元的总经济产出。我们还向K-12教育投入了3700万美元，而且我们还将增加这一投入。教育的重点是机器人技术和可持续性发展。嗯，再次感谢你们的杰出工作，让我们走到现在。感谢你们！这张照片，是我们上周三刚刚生产了第100万个能源模块。就算重复，我也要说，非常感谢你们！所有这些，仅仅是个开始，嗯，至少是第一阶段。我们今天要宣布的，是一项大规模的追加投资。这是新工厂外观的预告。是的，它看起来，帅爆了！另一件事也很酷，我们只用了我们当时认为所需的一半空间，就实现了我们的生产目标，而现在，我们要充分利用另一半的空间了。我们正在开展第二阶段的工作。我们将投资，我应该说，这些都是保守数字，而我们预计会超过这些数字，我认为我们最终会投资超过40亿美元。我们将增加400万平方英尺的生产空间，以及至少3000个直接的工作岗位。而且我认为，最终很可能会超过这个数字，这些都是保守的估计。是的，我们将在这里进行高产量的Semi半挂车生产，然后，我们还将在这里增加1亿千瓦时的特斯拉4680电池产能。这只是个开始。内华达超级工厂扩建计划：在原有的工厂（紫色）旁扩建一座4680电池工厂（绿色）和一座Semi生产工厂（蓝色）我认为长期来看，我们可能会达到高达5亿千瓦时的产能。但这次的增量产能是1亿千瓦时，是的，极其重要，游戏规则的改变因素。这是一些4680电池生产的视频。正如我所说，我们期望新的电池工厂的产能至少达到1亿千瓦时。也正如我所说，这真的只是个开始。长期而言，特斯拉的产能目标远超10亿千瓦时，可能是20亿或30亿千瓦时，这真的只是个开始。而这个电池产能，相当于增加150万辆Model 3/Y汽车。而且，固定式存储也将使用4680电池。明确说明一下，这是在基于我们供应商的电池供应之外的。考虑到，全球有20亿辆汽车和卡车在路上行驶这一事实，显然，我们必须生产大量的电动汽车来取代所有的汽油车。然后，同样为了可持续能源，我们需要生产尽可能多的固定式储能。事实上，想到这一切都让人感觉不可思议。然后，没错，有人说这是不可能做到的，但你可以开开这辆车。事实上，我们的一些主要客户如百事可乐，已经在使用特斯拉Semi半挂车了。今年我们会有限量的生产Semi半挂车，然后，希望在明年的某个时候，我们将能够实现量产。这是一个改变游戏规则的因素。尽管Semi半挂车只占车辆总数的1%，它们实际上占了20%的碳排放，它的影响，远比你看到的车辆数量要大。这是可持续能源未来的一个重要组成部分。而这辆车是一头猛兽。你可以看看它满载爬坡的样子，非常酷。而且，我想对内华达州说，非常感谢！我想邀请内华达州州长Joe Lombardo上台。Joe和埃隆Joe：好的，首先也是最重要的，你们看起来真棒！我想感谢埃隆，我想感谢埃隆的合作，感谢他帮助改善你们的生活，我的生活，并改变这个世界。谢谢你，请为埃隆鼓掌。首先，我感谢大家今天能聚在一起，让我有机会打个招呼。我希望在座的一部分人看到了我昨晚的州情陈述，有人看了吗？希望我说了一些让你们高兴的事情，让你们高兴的事，我认为我会的。那么，在我们今天谈论的这个话题中，我的角色是什么？显然，埃隆的目标是改变世界，而我的目标是改变你们的生活。埃隆：嗯，我只是想澄清一下，我得到了过多的赞誉，功劳是他们的。Joe：嗯，我明白这一点。埃隆谈到了电力能源的三大支柱，对吧，电动汽车，储能，风能和太阳能。而作为州长，我的三大支柱是经济，教育和你们的生活质量，即公众安全。所有一切都是为了这三大支柱。显然，经济的驱动力来源于特斯拉，它正在改变环境，改变你们和内华达州的生活，随着你们定居于内华达州。而今天，随着这次生产规模的扩大，它甚至将让生活质量和经济引擎翻倍，让推动整个内华达成功的动力翻倍，特别是北内华达地区。观众席上有一位刚刚加入我团队的年轻人，Tom Burns，你能上台来吗？（问埃隆）可以吗，如果你不介意的话？你们坐在后排的人看不到他，他有点矮，但Tom是州长经济发展办公室的新主任。他在与特斯拉的合作中发挥了重要作用，以确保这个项目落地，工厂建成，并确保未来它能长期存续。谢谢你，Tom！这是经济支柱，对吧，这是经济支柱。而教育支柱，为了工人，为了工程师和其他所有为了支撑这个社区的人们，特别是像特斯拉这样有宏大愿景的企业，需要在大学中有教育系统培养人才来担当这些职位。我要指出，在观众席上有一位非常重要的人，他就是前州长Sandoval，请上台来吧！你们可能不知道，他也是内华达大学雷诺分校的校长，在座很多人可能想去那里上学。内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校的校长刚才还在这里，但他后来离开了，这让我有些伤心，因为我来自内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校，我希望多点竞争。但我很感谢Brian Sandoval的到来。Brian Sandoval和埃隆在几年前有一个握手协议，开启了这件事的雏形。谢谢你，Brian，感谢你的支持！埃隆：谢谢你！Joe：最后一个支柱是你们的生活质量，即安全，特别是这里的80号州际公路。Tracy，Tracy，我可以请Tracy上台来吗？Tracy Larkin，请上来吧。谁更矮一些，Tom还是Tracy？对于坐在后排的各位来说，这里有一位年轻的女士，她是交通部的新主任。我告诉她，她的主要任务就是扩建80号州际公路，为你们创造一个安全的上下班环境，并确保Semi半挂车上路离开这里，好吗？好的，这就是我们要为你们，为内华达州所做的事情。这也是我作为内华达州州长，要为你们所做的。希望我们能与你们通力合作，走向未来，并确保我们建立一个非常，非常，非常长期的关系，彼此都能成为朋友。谢谢你们！埃隆：好的，谢谢你！（以上）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626531731,"gmtCreate":1674451405325,"gmtModify":1676538940976,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626531731","repostId":"2305396025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2305396025","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1674266887,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2305396025?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-21 10:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Fed Pace Slowing? A number of officials have expressed their support for a rate hike of 25 basis points next month","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2305396025","media":"格隆汇","summary":"已成定局？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: A foregone conclusion? This week, a number of Fed officials made public remarks, all of which released optimistic signals. Currently, the consensus expectation is that the Fed will rate hike 25 basis points at its next meeting. Near the end of interest rates, they supported a small 25 basis point rate hike as a way to proceed more cautiously.</p><p>On January 20, local time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discussed the economic outlook of the United States in 2023 on the background of the current international economic situation.</p><p>In his remarks, Waller noted that while the U.S. consumer price index fell month-over-month in December 2022, with core inflation falling from 6% in November to 5.7% in December, he was cautious about the U.S. inflation outlook in 2023. Because the U.S. core inflation rate in December 2022 increased compared to November and was flat with the data in October and March when the Federal Reserve began its rate hike.</p><p>Monetary policy should continue to tighten in favor of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to plan to raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points and continue to work towards meeting the 2% inflation target. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, the 2023 Fed voting committee, said he supports the Fed slowing the pace of its rate hike to 25 basis points amid signs that high inflation is cooling. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to more than 5% and \"stay\" at this level for a while.</p><p>Regarding the Fed's aggressive rate hike last year, Huck noted: \"I expect a few more rate hike this year, but in my opinion, our days of 75 basis points at a rate hike are certainly over, and 25 basis points in rate hike will be appropriate going forward. At some point this year, the Fed's policy will be at a level of curbing economic activity to help bring inflation down to the 2% target level.\"</p><p>Additionally, there are still upside risks to inflation, and the U.S. core inflation rate should drop to 3.5% this year, ease to 2.5% next year, and return to the 2% target level in 2025. He also added that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1% this year; And the unemployment rate in the United States will rise to 4.5% this year from the current 3.5%, and will fall back to 4% in subsequent years.</p><p>The Fed is expected to raise interest rates above 5%, and uncertainty about the rate hike stopping point is why the central bank should slow down the pace of rate hike, Hacker said.</p><p>Let's go above 5% and stay there for a while and then see how the economy performs. There is no need to push monetary policy to a level that will severely affect economic activity. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>It also said on Thursday that the Fed had not completed its aggressive tightening action to reduce stubborn price pressures. As inflation remains high and there are signs of a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, it is clear that there is still more work to be done in monetary policy to keep inflation down to the 2% target.</p><p>Curbing inflation will likely require \"below-trend\" economic growth as well as a weaker labor market. But restoring price stability is essential to maximizing employment and achieving long-term price stability, and we must stay the course until the task is accomplished. In addition, Dallas Fed President Logan also said that further slowing down the rate hike will ensure that the FOMC has the best monetary policy decision. The FOMC adheres to the price stability target, and US inflation is too high. High inflation in the service sector is a symptom of overheating.</p><p>Logan noted that rate hike is needed until there is evidence of slowing inflation. The tight labour market must be brought into a better balance. More data needs to be seen to show that there is no overheating in the labor market. Fed officials should not be confined to the issue of peak interest rates, but must evaluate the data.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Pace Slowing? A number of officials have expressed their support for a rate hike of 25 basis points next month</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Pace Slowing? A number of officials have expressed their support for a rate hike of 25 basis points next month\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-21 10:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: A foregone conclusion? This week, a number of Fed officials made public remarks, all of which released optimistic signals. Currently, the consensus expectation is that the Fed will rate hike 25 basis points at its next meeting. Near the end of interest rates, they supported a small 25 basis point rate hike as a way to proceed more cautiously.</p><p>On January 20, local time, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller discussed the economic outlook of the United States in 2023 on the background of the current international economic situation.</p><p>In his remarks, Waller noted that while the U.S. consumer price index fell month-over-month in December 2022, with core inflation falling from 6% in November to 5.7% in December, he was cautious about the U.S. inflation outlook in 2023. Because the U.S. core inflation rate in December 2022 increased compared to November and was flat with the data in October and March when the Federal Reserve began its rate hike.</p><p>Monetary policy should continue to tighten in favor of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to plan to raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points and continue to work towards meeting the 2% inflation target. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, the 2023 Fed voting committee, said he supports the Fed slowing the pace of its rate hike to 25 basis points amid signs that high inflation is cooling. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to more than 5% and \"stay\" at this level for a while.</p><p>Regarding the Fed's aggressive rate hike last year, Huck noted: \"I expect a few more rate hike this year, but in my opinion, our days of 75 basis points at a rate hike are certainly over, and 25 basis points in rate hike will be appropriate going forward. At some point this year, the Fed's policy will be at a level of curbing economic activity to help bring inflation down to the 2% target level.\"</p><p>Additionally, there are still upside risks to inflation, and the U.S. core inflation rate should drop to 3.5% this year, ease to 2.5% next year, and return to the 2% target level in 2025. He also added that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1% this year; And the unemployment rate in the United States will rise to 4.5% this year from the current 3.5%, and will fall back to 4% in subsequent years.</p><p>The Fed is expected to raise interest rates above 5%, and uncertainty about the rate hike stopping point is why the central bank should slow down the pace of rate hike, Hacker said.</p><p>Let's go above 5% and stay there for a while and then see how the economy performs. There is no need to push monetary policy to a level that will severely affect economic activity. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>It also said on Thursday that the Fed had not completed its aggressive tightening action to reduce stubborn price pressures. As inflation remains high and there are signs of a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, it is clear that there is still more work to be done in monetary policy to keep inflation down to the 2% target.</p><p>Curbing inflation will likely require \"below-trend\" economic growth as well as a weaker labor market. But restoring price stability is essential to maximizing employment and achieving long-term price stability, and we must stay the course until the task is accomplished. In addition, Dallas Fed President Logan also said that further slowing down the rate hike will ensure that the FOMC has the best monetary policy decision. The FOMC adheres to the price stability target, and US inflation is too high. High inflation in the service sector is a symptom of overheating.</p><p>Logan noted that rate hike is needed until there is evidence of slowing inflation. The tight labour market must be brought into a better balance. More data needs to be seen to show that there is no overheating in the labor market. Fed officials should not be confined to the issue of peak interest rates, but must evaluate the data.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/575480\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dffecb1c6b9d55e846f5ddf8b7d32da4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/575480","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2305396025","content_text":"摘要：已成定局？本周，多名美联储官员发表公开讲话，都释放出了乐观信号。目前，市场普遍预计美联储将在下次会议中加息25个基点。在接近利率终点时，他们支持将25个基点的小幅加息作为一种更加谨慎行事的方式。当地时间1月20日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒就当前国际经济形势背景讨论了美国2023年经济前景。沃勒在讲话中指出，虽然2022年12月美国消费者价格指数环比下降，核心通胀率从11月的6%降至12月的5.7%，但他对美国2023年通胀前景持谨慎态度。因为美国2022年12月的核心通胀率与11月相比有所上升并且与10月和3月美联储开始加息时的数据持平。货币政策应该继续收紧，赞成联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）计划将基准利率再上调25个基点的决定，并继续就达成2%的通胀目标做出努力。周三，2023年美联储票委、费城联储主席哈克表示，他支持美联储放慢加息步伐至25个基点，因为有迹象显示，高企的通货膨胀正在降温。同时预计美联储将提高利率至5%以上，并在这个水平“停留”一段时间。对于去年美联储的激进加息，哈克指出：\"我预计今年还会加息几次，不过在我看来，我们一次加息75个基点的日子肯定已经过去了，今后加息25个基点将是适当的。在今年的某个时候，美联储的政策将处于抑制经济活动的水平，以帮助将通胀降低到2%的目标水平。\"此外，通胀仍有上行风险，美国核心通胀率应该在今年降至3.5%，明年缓解到2.5%，并在2025年回到2%的目标水平。他还补充说，美国经济今年预计增长1%;而美国今年的失业率将从目前的3.5%上升到4.5%，随后几年将回落到4%。哈克表示，预计美联储将把利率提高到5%以上，加息停止点的不确定性是央行应该放慢加息步伐的原因。让我们升至5%以上，并在那里停留一段时间，然后看看经济表现如何。没有必要将货币政策推到会严重影响经济活动的水平。美国纽约联邦储备银行行长威廉姆斯也在周四表示，联储还没有完成为了削减顽固价格压力所采取的激进紧缩行动。由于通货膨胀率仍然很高，而且有迹象表明供需持续失衡，很明显，货币政策仍有更多工作要做，才能将通货膨胀率持续降至2%的目标。遏制通胀可能需要“低于趋势”的经济增长以及劳动力市场走软。但是，恢复物价稳定对于实现就业最大化和长期物价稳定至关重要，我们必须坚持到底，直到任务完成。此外，达拉斯联储主席洛根也表示，进一步放慢加息幅度将确保FOMC拥有最佳的货币政策决定。FOMC恪守物价稳定性目标，美国通胀太高。服务业通胀偏高，是经济过热的症候。洛根指出，需要加息，直至有证据表明通胀放缓。必须将紧俏的劳动力市场带入更好的平衡状态。需要看到更多数据表明劳动力市场不存在过热。美联储官员们不应当被局限在利率峰值这个问题上，而必须评估数据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626878521,"gmtCreate":1674049154165,"gmtModify":1676538920200,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626878521","repostId":"1129715152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628720626,"gmtCreate":1673502706567,"gmtModify":1676538847441,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628720626","repostId":"1172634292","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172634292","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673492530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172634292?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-12 11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US CPI strikes tonight, inflection point approaching? How long can the Fed be hard-mouthed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172634292","media":"第一财经","summary":"CPI月率有望由涨转跌，燃料价格成为关键。对于美国政府和美联储而言，通胀依然是眼前最重要的经济问题。外界正在密切关注周四将发布的2022年12月消费者价格指数CPI数据，超预期降温的数据可能让有关提前","content":"<p><div>The monthly CPI rate is expected to turn from rising to falling, and fuel prices become the key. For the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, inflation remains the most important economic issue at hand. The outside world is closely watching the December 2022 consumer price index CPI data to be released on Thursday, and the more-than-expected cooling data could further heat up speculation about an early end to the rate hike cycle, thereby exacerbating the volatility of risky assets. However, the attitude of the Federal Reserve has not changed on the surface. Many officials have made hawkish remarks repeatedly, and the game between the market and the Federal Reserve on the policy path is unfolding. CPI monthly rate or unexpected turnaround as February resolution statement before...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101647975.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US CPI strikes tonight, inflection point approaching? How long can the Fed be hard-mouthed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS CPI strikes tonight, inflection point approaching? How long can the Fed be hard-mouthed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-12 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>The monthly CPI rate is expected to turn from rising to falling, and fuel prices become the key. For the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve, inflation remains the most important economic issue at hand. The outside world is closely watching the December 2022 consumer price index CPI data to be released on Thursday, and the more-than-expected cooling data could further heat up speculation about an early end to the rate hike cycle, thereby exacerbating the volatility of risky assets. However, the attitude of the Federal Reserve has not changed on the surface. Many officials have made hawkish remarks repeatedly, and the game between the market and the Federal Reserve on the policy path is unfolding. CPI monthly rate or unexpected turnaround as February resolution statement before...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101647975.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101647975.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101647975.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172634292","content_text":"CPI月率有望由涨转跌，燃料价格成为关键。对于美国政府和美联储而言，通胀依然是眼前最重要的经济问题。外界正在密切关注周四将发布的2022年12月消费者价格指数CPI数据，超预期降温的数据可能让有关提前结束加息周期的猜测进一步升温，从而加剧风险资产的波动性。不过美联储态度明面上尚未发生变化，多位官员连番发表鹰派言论，市场与美联储之间有关政策路径的博弈正在展开。CPI月率或意外转跌作为2月决议声明前为数不多的重磅数据，即将公布的通胀数据重要性不言而喻。华尔街最新预计，去年12月美国CPI同比增长从此前的7.1%放缓至6.5%，不考虑能源和食品的核心CPI同比增长5.7%。值得注意的是，CPI环比增速可能降至零以下，如果成为现实将是2020年5月以来的首次。能源价格回落被视为物价降温的主要动力。美国汽车协会AAA数据显示，去年12月美国汽油价格下跌逾12%，燃料价格是过去一年CPI上行的重要推手。与此同时，受供应链瓶颈缓和及全球经济下行压力影响，上月工业金属等原材料价格也呈现调整态势。上游原材料价格变动减轻了企业的成本压力。随着消费需求降温，去年底美国工厂活动持续承压。供应管理协会（ISM）12月制造业活动指数进一步回落至48.4，创2020年5月以来最低水平。分项指标中，生产价格指数已经回落到疫情以来的最低水平。去年12月美国汽油价格下跌逾12%（资料来源：美国汽车协会）作为通胀的另一大组成部分，住房通胀压力也在缓解。抵押贷款利率飙升打压了房地产市场销售，房价涨幅迅速收窄，也影响了租房市场。美联储主席鲍威尔在去年12月议息会议后的新闻发布会上也提及了房租问题，认为只要租赁通胀指标持续下降，住房服务通胀会在某个时候开始回落。根据Realtor.com的数据，全美租金涨幅已经连续十个月放缓，11月同比增速降至3.4%，这是19个月以来的最小涨幅。克利夫兰联储近日公布的研究指出，租金数据走势往往比CPI中的住房指标领先一年左右。高盛首席经济学家哈齐乌斯（Jan Hatzius）本周发布报告表示，抵押贷款利率提高导致美国住房市场疲软，这将有助于将今年的核心通货膨胀率降至3%以下，低于联邦公开市场委员会FOMC 3.5%的预测。相比之下，服务业通胀依然棘手。服务业从业人员占据美国就业的大部分，去年10月，服务业通胀一度增长超7%，这是自1982年以来的最快速度。嘉信理财指出，目前劳动力市场最紧张的行业基本都集中在服务业，这也推高了薪资压力和潜在的通胀风险。不过经济放缓已经开始冲击服务业，在连续扩张30个月之后，美国ISM非制造业指数在2022年年末跌破荣枯线，消费需求在经济不确定性下大幅萎缩，并开始影响包括科技在内的部分行业的就业岗位。牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）此前在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，服务价格对经济降温的抵抗力更强，与劳动力成本的联系更为紧密。尽管就业市场有所降温，但整体依然火热，低失业率环境下不少企业依然面临招聘困境和用工成本的挑战。结合去年的市场情况，最新通胀数据可能会引发市场巨震。摩根大通分析师泰勒（Andrew Tyler）预计，任何显示美联储抗通胀行动取得进展的迹象都会刺激美股。“通胀降温应该有助于熊市反弹，因为现有的仓位部署可能导致市场对空头回补反应过度。如果CPI跌破6.4%，标普500指数或将上涨3%至3.5%。”他写道。美联储保持嘴硬与上周类似，本周以来多位美联储官员在讲话中继续传递“鹰派情绪”。旧金山联储主席戴利（Mary Daly）和亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）均暗示利率不仅需要继续上涨至5%以上，而且可能在一段时间内保持不变。美联储理事鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）认为，加息将持续到有令人信服的迹象表明通胀已经达到顶峰，并处于明显下降趋势，然后才会调整货币政策。然而紧缩政策正在让经济不确定性升温。考虑到仍处于激进的紧缩周期中，周二世界银行预计今年美国经济增长将大幅放缓，落后于全球扩张的步伐。数据显示，美国内生产总值（GDP）增长率预计为0.5%，比此前的预测大幅下修1.9个百分点。根据CME FedWatch工具，当前市场预计美联储在2月、3月分别加息25个基点的可能性徘徊于70%，而本轮加息周期的终端利率目标区间指向4.75%至5%，同时四季度有望降息。受此影响，美元指数震荡回落，目前已经较去年9月创下的20年高位跌去近11%，投资者押注通胀降温和经济风险将让美联储提前转向。施瓦茨向第一财经记者表示，美联储离考虑政策转向还很遥远。但从强调考虑货币政策的累积效应的角度看，经济压力下未来逐步放缓加息步伐是合理的。他预计未来可能还有50-75个基点的加息空间，随后将保持一段时间，目前降息显然还不在美联储内部的讨论范围内。而摩根大通CEO 戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）认为，加息到5%的水平可能还不够，美联储可能需要加息至超出当前预期的水平，有50%的概率升至6%。他在接受美媒采访时表示，虽然美联储之前的步伐有点慢，现在正在迎头赶上。风险依然存在，比如俄乌冲突和量化紧缩的影响。因此他赞成美联储考虑暂停加息，以了解加息的全部影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":628213433,"gmtCreate":1673259095624,"gmtModify":1676538806966,"author":{"id":"3565560849516206","authorId":"3565560849516206","name":"被幸福敲了门的人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/364d8f8a1793db9e530ae96c23e25482","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565560849516206","idStr":"3565560849516206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😄","listText":"😄","text":"😄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628213433","repostId":"628954992","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628954992,"gmtCreate":1672843659632,"gmtModify":1676538746393,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉會跌到哪兒？一些大單線索(2)","htmlText":"今天是1月4號，是馬斯克預言股災一週年的日子，所以今天也可以算另類“黑色星期五“了。很黑色幽默的是，市場上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是馬斯克的特斯拉，很難說華爾街沒點意見在裏面。特斯拉一晚上跌到上週盤前低點104，接下來的問題就是，特斯拉還會跌嗎？可以用期權異動了解市場對這個問題的看法。先說結論：市場傾向於不會跌到90以下，也不傾向會暴漲，sell&nbsp;call可能是近期更好的選擇。按時間順序來看，週二開盤後沒多久就有人買入了平價期權<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;，本週看跌到110以下，事實證明之後股價大跌，我認爲這張期權的交易者今天可能會平倉。然後時間來到盤中11點，此時特斯拉股價接近底部，有人賣出了行權價爲135的call&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$</a>，此行爲可以解釋爲不看好特斯拉1月20日前不會漲過135。時間來到下半場，特斯拉止跌反彈。下半場的思路轉化爲sell&nbsp;put+buy&nbsp;call。也就是不看跌：賣出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$</a>買入","listText":"今天是1月4號，是馬斯克預言股災一週年的日子，所以今天也可以算另類“黑色星期五“了。很黑色幽默的是，市場上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是馬斯克的特斯拉，很難說華爾街沒點意見在裏面。特斯拉一晚上跌到上週盤前低點104，接下來的問題就是，特斯拉還會跌嗎？可以用期權異動了解市場對這個問題的看法。先說結論：市場傾向於不會跌到90以下，也不傾向會暴漲，sell&nbsp;call可能是近期更好的選擇。按時間順序來看，週二開盤後沒多久就有人買入了平價期權<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;，本週看跌到110以下，事實證明之後股價大跌，我認爲這張期權的交易者今天可能會平倉。然後時間來到盤中11點，此時特斯拉股價接近底部，有人賣出了行權價爲135的call&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$</a>，此行爲可以解釋爲不看好特斯拉1月20日前不會漲過135。時間來到下半場，特斯拉止跌反彈。下半場的思路轉化爲sell&nbsp;put+buy&nbsp;call。也就是不看跌：賣出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT\">$TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$</a>買入","text":"今天是1月4號，是馬斯克預言股災一週年的日子，所以今天也可以算另類“黑色星期五“了。很黑色幽默的是，市場上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是馬斯克的特斯拉，很難說華爾街沒點意見在裏面。特斯拉一晚上跌到上週盤前低點104，接下來的問題就是，特斯拉還會跌嗎？可以用期權異動了解市場對這個問題的看法。先說結論：市場傾向於不會跌到90以下，也不傾向會暴漲，sell call可能是近期更好的選擇。按時間順序來看，週二開盤後沒多久就有人買入了平價期權$TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$ ，本週看跌到110以下，事實證明之後股價大跌，我認爲這張期權的交易者今天可能會平倉。然後時間來到盤中11點，此時特斯拉股價接近底部，有人賣出了行權價爲135的call $TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$，此行爲可以解釋爲不看好特斯拉1月20日前不會漲過135。時間來到下半場，特斯拉止跌反彈。下半場的思路轉化爲sell put+buy call。也就是不看跌：賣出$TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$買入","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40e05b0bee8ccb9564e878949fa5bdb","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b66d3573e9daf8051fc1ed2651432d1e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11c7b0a25315aee7dce302bfd5ebbb7","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/628954992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}