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2021-08-12

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Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets

2021-07-12

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22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142061073,"gmtCreate":1626104557992,"gmtModify":1703753572053,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142061073","repostId":"1157757312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157757312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626101712,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157757312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157757312","media":"CNBC","summary":"As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on compan","content":"<div>\n<p>As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 22:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","NEM":"纽曼矿业"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1157757312","content_text":"As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\nOn the surface, this is slated to be a stellar earnings season with profits for S&P 500 companies expected to jump 65% from the same quarter a year ago in the depths of the pandemic, according to Refinitiv. However, Goldman noted that the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%, and many companies are expected to feel the pain from higher inflation.\n“Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the economy,” David Kostin, Goldman’s head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a note.\nThe S&P 500 has climbed to multiple records with a 16% rally in 2021, shaking off fears that the economic recovery might be slowing down and that the Federal Reserve might start tightening ultra-easy monetary policy. Many on Wall Street believe the second half of the year will be much choppier and investors should take a more selective approach.\nIn this inflationary environment, companies with the highest profit margins have started to outperform, according to Goldman.\n“Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles,” Kostin said. “Our valuation model shows than profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration.”\n\nTo identify stocks with expanding profitability, Goldman screened S&P 500 companies with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50 basis points or more in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50 basis points for more in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock in the basket has a net margin of 26% in 2021, versus 13% for a typical S&P 500 stock. Meanwhile, the median stock in the screen is also expected to grow margins by 306 basis points through 2022, compared to 156 basis points for the median S&P 500 stock.\nThe list features a slew of semiconductor companies includingTexas Instruments,Broadcom,Analog DevicesandMicrochip Technology. Many chip companies are benefiting from surging demand among smartphone makers, auto companies and gaming firms amid a global shortage.\nMining companies Newmont Corp.and Freeport-McMoRan were also highlighted by Goldman, as well as railroad company Union Pacific.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148314820,"gmtCreate":1625930150160,"gmtModify":1703750998031,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148314820","repostId":"2150379822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150379822","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625877134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150379822?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 08:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150379822","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Among Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet is a company expected to significantly outperform its peers.","content":"<p>Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.</p>\n<p>When I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the combination of:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a></b> (NASDAQ:FB)</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL)</li>\n <li><b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:AMZN)</li>\n <li><b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX)</li>\n <li>Google, which is now a subsidiary of <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeb5728f1df2932f1493ee7cf2c6b47\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Everyone's a winner if you bought and held the FAANG stocks</h2>\n<p>If you think the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> or tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> have been unstoppable since the market bottomed out following the Great Recession in March 2009, you should take a closer look at the returns of the FAANGs. With the exception of Facebook, which debuted as a public company nine years ago, here's how the FAANGs have performed, relative to the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, since the Great Recession bottom on March 9, 2009:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Facebook:</b> Up 828% (since 2012 debut)</li>\n <li><b>Apple:</b> Up 4,612%</li>\n <li><b>Amazon:</b> Up 5,704%</li>\n <li><b>Netflix:</b> Up 9,608%</li>\n <li><b>Alphabet:</b> Up 1,621%</li>\n <li><b>S&amp;P 500: </b>Up 543%</li>\n <li><b>Nasdaq Composite: </b>Up 1,054%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There really hasn't been a wrong answer among the FAANGs. Even if you chose Alphabet over Netflix, Amazon, or Apple, you're sitting on an outperformance of nearly 1,100% over the most widely followed benchmark stock index.</p>\n<p>All of the FAANGs are leaders in their respective industries, they're top-notch innovators, and with the exception of Netflix, they're generating a mountain of cash flow on an annual basis. It also doesn't hurt that they're also household names, which has made them a popular destination for investment dollars.</p>\n<p>But as we move into the second half of 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> FAANG stock stands out for its value relative to its high-growth potential. If you buy this stock, my expectation is that it'll outperform its peers over the next six months and, perhaps, well beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081d46801bd0da7c913757ada54fe6ce\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Image source: Amazon.</span></p>\n<h2>The No. 1 FAANG stock to buy for the second half of 2021</h2>\n<p>While I'm a fan of four of the five FAANGs (sorry, Netflix, I'm not thrilled about the increasingly competitive landscape for streaming), the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that I expect to outrun its peers is e-commerce giant Amazon. Before I explain how Amazon could be considered a \"value,\" as I've described it, you first need to understand how incredibly dominant the company's two core operating segments have become.</p>\n<p>The first dominant segment, which is what initially put Amazon on the map, is its online retail marketplace. Back in April, eMarketer estimated that Amazon's share of U.S. online retail would expand to 40.4% in 2021. For context, this is more than five times higher than the next-closest competitor, <b>Walmart</b>, which controls an estimated 7.1% of online retail. In fact, if you add up No.'s 2 through 10, Amazon's share of U.S. retail e-commerce sales would still be over 50% larger.</p>\n<p>Admittedly, retail doesn't offer the best margins, and Amazon knows it. That's why it's been pushing Prime memberships, which come with perks like free/expedited shipping and access to Amazon's streaming platform.</p>\n<p>Thus far, more than 200 million people worldwide have signed up for Prime. That's great news because Prime members are incented to spend more than non-Prime customers in order to get the most out of the membership. Plus, the billions of dollars collected in fees from Prime helps buffer Amazon's retail margins and ensures it undercuts its brick-and-mortar competitors on price.</p>\n<p>The second source of dominance comes from cloud-infrastructure services. With more businesses than ever pushing online and moving data into the cloud, demand for Amazon Web Services (AWS) storage and solutions has soared. Whereas most businesses struggled during the worst economic downturn in decades in 2020, AWS registered full-year sales growth of 30%.</p>\n<p>According to estimates from Canalys, which leaned on first-quarter operating results from major cloud service providers, the $13.5 billion AWS raked in during the first quarter gives it a 32% share of worldwide cloud-infrastructure spending. Since cloud services generate vastly superior margins to retail or advertising, AWS has quickly become the primary generator of operating income for Amazon, despite only accounting for an eighth of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be53e57590b1343cdbc68172a0bac01\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Amazon is headed for an historically cheap valuation</h2>\n<p>Now that you have a better idea of why Amazon is so unstoppable, it's time to get to the heart of the matter -- why it's going to outperform its FAANG peers over the next six months and, likely, well beyond.</p>\n<p>Most investors are familiar with using price-to-earnings or price-to-book as sort of a broad-stroke measure of value. But these traditional fundamental metrics have never worked well for Amazon, primarily because outgoing CEO Jeff Bezos aimed to reinvest the bulk of the company's operating cash flow to grow the business. Thus, price-to-operating cash flow has historically been a much more accurate measure of whether or not Amazon is relatively pricey or inexpensive.</p>\n<p>What's particularly interesting about Amazon is that it's ended each of the past 11 years with a price-to-cash-flow multiple of between 23 and 37. You'll find similar high cash flow premiums (albeit with different multiples) for Facebook and Alphabet, as well.</p>\n<p>Amazon has had a habit of trouncing Wall Street's annual cash flow per share estimates for years. Based on the 2021 estimate, it's valued at a multiple of 26 times cash flow.</p>\n<p>But where things get interesting is in 2023 and 2024. The continued growth of online sales, higher advertising revenue, and more importantly, the growth of AWS is expected to more than double the company's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p>If Wall Street's consensus estimate of $314.20 in annual cash flow per share proves accurate, Amazon could be valued at $9,000 a share by 2024 and still be well within its historic cash flow multiple range. None of the other FAANGs are expected to see their operating cash flow soar quite like Amazon by mid-decade.</p>\n<p>Nominally speaking, Amazon doesn't look like a value. But taking into account its retail and cloud infrastructure dominance, as well as its rapidly expanding operating cash flow, it's the FAANG stock that clearly offers the most upside.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 08:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.\nWhen I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150379822","content_text":"Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.\nWhen I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the combination of:\n\nFacebook (NASDAQ:FB)\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL)\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)\nNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)\nGoogle, which is now a subsidiary of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEveryone's a winner if you bought and held the FAANG stocks\nIf you think the benchmark S&P 500 or tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have been unstoppable since the market bottomed out following the Great Recession in March 2009, you should take a closer look at the returns of the FAANGs. With the exception of Facebook, which debuted as a public company nine years ago, here's how the FAANGs have performed, relative to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, since the Great Recession bottom on March 9, 2009:\n\nFacebook: Up 828% (since 2012 debut)\nApple: Up 4,612%\nAmazon: Up 5,704%\nNetflix: Up 9,608%\nAlphabet: Up 1,621%\nS&P 500: Up 543%\nNasdaq Composite: Up 1,054%\n\nThere really hasn't been a wrong answer among the FAANGs. Even if you chose Alphabet over Netflix, Amazon, or Apple, you're sitting on an outperformance of nearly 1,100% over the most widely followed benchmark stock index.\nAll of the FAANGs are leaders in their respective industries, they're top-notch innovators, and with the exception of Netflix, they're generating a mountain of cash flow on an annual basis. It also doesn't hurt that they're also household names, which has made them a popular destination for investment dollars.\nBut as we move into the second half of 2021, one FAANG stock stands out for its value relative to its high-growth potential. If you buy this stock, my expectation is that it'll outperform its peers over the next six months and, perhaps, well beyond.\nImage source: Amazon.\nThe No. 1 FAANG stock to buy for the second half of 2021\nWhile I'm a fan of four of the five FAANGs (sorry, Netflix, I'm not thrilled about the increasingly competitive landscape for streaming), the one that I expect to outrun its peers is e-commerce giant Amazon. Before I explain how Amazon could be considered a \"value,\" as I've described it, you first need to understand how incredibly dominant the company's two core operating segments have become.\nThe first dominant segment, which is what initially put Amazon on the map, is its online retail marketplace. Back in April, eMarketer estimated that Amazon's share of U.S. online retail would expand to 40.4% in 2021. For context, this is more than five times higher than the next-closest competitor, Walmart, which controls an estimated 7.1% of online retail. In fact, if you add up No.'s 2 through 10, Amazon's share of U.S. retail e-commerce sales would still be over 50% larger.\nAdmittedly, retail doesn't offer the best margins, and Amazon knows it. That's why it's been pushing Prime memberships, which come with perks like free/expedited shipping and access to Amazon's streaming platform.\nThus far, more than 200 million people worldwide have signed up for Prime. That's great news because Prime members are incented to spend more than non-Prime customers in order to get the most out of the membership. Plus, the billions of dollars collected in fees from Prime helps buffer Amazon's retail margins and ensures it undercuts its brick-and-mortar competitors on price.\nThe second source of dominance comes from cloud-infrastructure services. With more businesses than ever pushing online and moving data into the cloud, demand for Amazon Web Services (AWS) storage and solutions has soared. Whereas most businesses struggled during the worst economic downturn in decades in 2020, AWS registered full-year sales growth of 30%.\nAccording to estimates from Canalys, which leaned on first-quarter operating results from major cloud service providers, the $13.5 billion AWS raked in during the first quarter gives it a 32% share of worldwide cloud-infrastructure spending. Since cloud services generate vastly superior margins to retail or advertising, AWS has quickly become the primary generator of operating income for Amazon, despite only accounting for an eighth of total sales.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAmazon is headed for an historically cheap valuation\nNow that you have a better idea of why Amazon is so unstoppable, it's time to get to the heart of the matter -- why it's going to outperform its FAANG peers over the next six months and, likely, well beyond.\nMost investors are familiar with using price-to-earnings or price-to-book as sort of a broad-stroke measure of value. But these traditional fundamental metrics have never worked well for Amazon, primarily because outgoing CEO Jeff Bezos aimed to reinvest the bulk of the company's operating cash flow to grow the business. Thus, price-to-operating cash flow has historically been a much more accurate measure of whether or not Amazon is relatively pricey or inexpensive.\nWhat's particularly interesting about Amazon is that it's ended each of the past 11 years with a price-to-cash-flow multiple of between 23 and 37. You'll find similar high cash flow premiums (albeit with different multiples) for Facebook and Alphabet, as well.\nAmazon has had a habit of trouncing Wall Street's annual cash flow per share estimates for years. Based on the 2021 estimate, it's valued at a multiple of 26 times cash flow.\nBut where things get interesting is in 2023 and 2024. The continued growth of online sales, higher advertising revenue, and more importantly, the growth of AWS is expected to more than double the company's operating cash flow.\nIf Wall Street's consensus estimate of $314.20 in annual cash flow per share proves accurate, Amazon could be valued at $9,000 a share by 2024 and still be well within its historic cash flow multiple range. None of the other FAANGs are expected to see their operating cash flow soar quite like Amazon by mid-decade.\nNominally speaking, Amazon doesn't look like a value. But taking into account its retail and cloud infrastructure dominance, as well as its rapidly expanding operating cash flow, it's the FAANG stock that clearly offers the most upside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148314021,"gmtCreate":1625930075463,"gmtModify":1703750997708,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148314021","repostId":"1142328952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":894908506,"gmtCreate":1628780434405,"gmtModify":1676529853932,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894908506","repostId":"1162909242","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162909242","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628779877,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162909242?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142061073,"gmtCreate":1626104557992,"gmtModify":1703753572053,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142061073","repostId":"1157757312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157757312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626101712,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157757312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-12 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157757312","media":"CNBC","summary":"As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on compan","content":"<div>\n<p>As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman says bet on these stocks with expanding profitability into earnings season\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 22:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","NEM":"纽曼矿业"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/stocks-to-buy-goldman-says-bet-on-these-stocks-with-rising-profitability.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1157757312","content_text":"As the second-quarter earnings season kicks off, Goldman Sachs says investors should focus on companies that have been able to defend profits by raising prices and passing higher costs to customers.\nOn the surface, this is slated to be a stellar earnings season with profits for S&P 500 companies expected to jump 65% from the same quarter a year ago in the depths of the pandemic, according to Refinitiv. However, Goldman noted that the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%, and many companies are expected to feel the pain from higher inflation.\n“Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the economy,” David Kostin, Goldman’s head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a note.\nThe S&P 500 has climbed to multiple records with a 16% rally in 2021, shaking off fears that the economic recovery might be slowing down and that the Federal Reserve might start tightening ultra-easy monetary policy. Many on Wall Street believe the second half of the year will be much choppier and investors should take a more selective approach.\nIn this inflationary environment, companies with the highest profit margins have started to outperform, according to Goldman.\n“Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles,” Kostin said. “Our valuation model shows than profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration.”\n\nTo identify stocks with expanding profitability, Goldman screened S&P 500 companies with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50 basis points or more in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50 basis points for more in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock in the basket has a net margin of 26% in 2021, versus 13% for a typical S&P 500 stock. Meanwhile, the median stock in the screen is also expected to grow margins by 306 basis points through 2022, compared to 156 basis points for the median S&P 500 stock.\nThe list features a slew of semiconductor companies includingTexas Instruments,Broadcom,Analog DevicesandMicrochip Technology. Many chip companies are benefiting from surging demand among smartphone makers, auto companies and gaming firms amid a global shortage.\nMining companies Newmont Corp.and Freeport-McMoRan were also highlighted by Goldman, as well as railroad company Union Pacific.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894907811,"gmtCreate":1628780595633,"gmtModify":1676529854042,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894907811","repostId":"1163871448","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148314021,"gmtCreate":1625930075463,"gmtModify":1703750997708,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148314021","repostId":"1142328952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839422583,"gmtCreate":1629175743342,"gmtModify":1676529954409,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839422583","repostId":"2159222279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148314820,"gmtCreate":1625930150160,"gmtModify":1703750998031,"author":{"id":"3568438494060218","authorId":"3568438494060218","name":"ongxiaoyun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568438494060218","authorIdStr":"3568438494060218"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148314820","repostId":"2150379822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150379822","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625877134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150379822?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 08:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150379822","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Among Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet is a company expected to significantly outperform its peers.","content":"<p>Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.</p>\n<p>When I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the combination of:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a></b> (NASDAQ:FB)</li>\n <li><b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL)</li>\n <li><b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:AMZN)</li>\n <li><b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX)</li>\n <li>Google, which is now a subsidiary of <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeb5728f1df2932f1493ee7cf2c6b47\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Everyone's a winner if you bought and held the FAANG stocks</h2>\n<p>If you think the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> or tech-heavy <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> have been unstoppable since the market bottomed out following the Great Recession in March 2009, you should take a closer look at the returns of the FAANGs. With the exception of Facebook, which debuted as a public company nine years ago, here's how the FAANGs have performed, relative to the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, since the Great Recession bottom on March 9, 2009:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Facebook:</b> Up 828% (since 2012 debut)</li>\n <li><b>Apple:</b> Up 4,612%</li>\n <li><b>Amazon:</b> Up 5,704%</li>\n <li><b>Netflix:</b> Up 9,608%</li>\n <li><b>Alphabet:</b> Up 1,621%</li>\n <li><b>S&amp;P 500: </b>Up 543%</li>\n <li><b>Nasdaq Composite: </b>Up 1,054%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>There really hasn't been a wrong answer among the FAANGs. Even if you chose Alphabet over Netflix, Amazon, or Apple, you're sitting on an outperformance of nearly 1,100% over the most widely followed benchmark stock index.</p>\n<p>All of the FAANGs are leaders in their respective industries, they're top-notch innovators, and with the exception of Netflix, they're generating a mountain of cash flow on an annual basis. It also doesn't hurt that they're also household names, which has made them a popular destination for investment dollars.</p>\n<p>But as we move into the second half of 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> FAANG stock stands out for its value relative to its high-growth potential. If you buy this stock, my expectation is that it'll outperform its peers over the next six months and, perhaps, well beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081d46801bd0da7c913757ada54fe6ce\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Image source: Amazon.</span></p>\n<h2>The No. 1 FAANG stock to buy for the second half of 2021</h2>\n<p>While I'm a fan of four of the five FAANGs (sorry, Netflix, I'm not thrilled about the increasingly competitive landscape for streaming), the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that I expect to outrun its peers is e-commerce giant Amazon. Before I explain how Amazon could be considered a \"value,\" as I've described it, you first need to understand how incredibly dominant the company's two core operating segments have become.</p>\n<p>The first dominant segment, which is what initially put Amazon on the map, is its online retail marketplace. Back in April, eMarketer estimated that Amazon's share of U.S. online retail would expand to 40.4% in 2021. For context, this is more than five times higher than the next-closest competitor, <b>Walmart</b>, which controls an estimated 7.1% of online retail. In fact, if you add up No.'s 2 through 10, Amazon's share of U.S. retail e-commerce sales would still be over 50% larger.</p>\n<p>Admittedly, retail doesn't offer the best margins, and Amazon knows it. That's why it's been pushing Prime memberships, which come with perks like free/expedited shipping and access to Amazon's streaming platform.</p>\n<p>Thus far, more than 200 million people worldwide have signed up for Prime. That's great news because Prime members are incented to spend more than non-Prime customers in order to get the most out of the membership. Plus, the billions of dollars collected in fees from Prime helps buffer Amazon's retail margins and ensures it undercuts its brick-and-mortar competitors on price.</p>\n<p>The second source of dominance comes from cloud-infrastructure services. With more businesses than ever pushing online and moving data into the cloud, demand for Amazon Web Services (AWS) storage and solutions has soared. Whereas most businesses struggled during the worst economic downturn in decades in 2020, AWS registered full-year sales growth of 30%.</p>\n<p>According to estimates from Canalys, which leaned on first-quarter operating results from major cloud service providers, the $13.5 billion AWS raked in during the first quarter gives it a 32% share of worldwide cloud-infrastructure spending. Since cloud services generate vastly superior margins to retail or advertising, AWS has quickly become the primary generator of operating income for Amazon, despite only accounting for an eighth of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be53e57590b1343cdbc68172a0bac01\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Amazon is headed for an historically cheap valuation</h2>\n<p>Now that you have a better idea of why Amazon is so unstoppable, it's time to get to the heart of the matter -- why it's going to outperform its FAANG peers over the next six months and, likely, well beyond.</p>\n<p>Most investors are familiar with using price-to-earnings or price-to-book as sort of a broad-stroke measure of value. But these traditional fundamental metrics have never worked well for Amazon, primarily because outgoing CEO Jeff Bezos aimed to reinvest the bulk of the company's operating cash flow to grow the business. Thus, price-to-operating cash flow has historically been a much more accurate measure of whether or not Amazon is relatively pricey or inexpensive.</p>\n<p>What's particularly interesting about Amazon is that it's ended each of the past 11 years with a price-to-cash-flow multiple of between 23 and 37. You'll find similar high cash flow premiums (albeit with different multiples) for Facebook and Alphabet, as well.</p>\n<p>Amazon has had a habit of trouncing Wall Street's annual cash flow per share estimates for years. Based on the 2021 estimate, it's valued at a multiple of 26 times cash flow.</p>\n<p>But where things get interesting is in 2023 and 2024. The continued growth of online sales, higher advertising revenue, and more importantly, the growth of AWS is expected to more than double the company's operating cash flow.</p>\n<p>If Wall Street's consensus estimate of $314.20 in annual cash flow per share proves accurate, Amazon could be valued at $9,000 a share by 2024 and still be well within its historic cash flow multiple range. None of the other FAANGs are expected to see their operating cash flow soar quite like Amazon by mid-decade.</p>\n<p>Nominally speaking, Amazon doesn't look like a value. But taking into account its retail and cloud infrastructure dominance, as well as its rapidly expanding operating cash flow, it's the FAANG stock that clearly offers the most upside.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 1 FAANG Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist for the Second Half of 2021 (and Beyond)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 08:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.\nWhen I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/1-faang-stock-to-buy-for-the-second-half-of-2021/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150379822","content_text":"Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner has long-embraced the mantra that winning stocks keep winning -- and that's truly been the case for the FAANG stocks.\nWhen I say \"FAANG,\" I'm referring to the combination of:\n\nFacebook (NASDAQ:FB)\nApple (NASDAQ:AAPL)\nAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)\nNetflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)\nGoogle, which is now a subsidiary of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEveryone's a winner if you bought and held the FAANG stocks\nIf you think the benchmark S&P 500 or tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have been unstoppable since the market bottomed out following the Great Recession in March 2009, you should take a closer look at the returns of the FAANGs. With the exception of Facebook, which debuted as a public company nine years ago, here's how the FAANGs have performed, relative to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, since the Great Recession bottom on March 9, 2009:\n\nFacebook: Up 828% (since 2012 debut)\nApple: Up 4,612%\nAmazon: Up 5,704%\nNetflix: Up 9,608%\nAlphabet: Up 1,621%\nS&P 500: Up 543%\nNasdaq Composite: Up 1,054%\n\nThere really hasn't been a wrong answer among the FAANGs. Even if you chose Alphabet over Netflix, Amazon, or Apple, you're sitting on an outperformance of nearly 1,100% over the most widely followed benchmark stock index.\nAll of the FAANGs are leaders in their respective industries, they're top-notch innovators, and with the exception of Netflix, they're generating a mountain of cash flow on an annual basis. It also doesn't hurt that they're also household names, which has made them a popular destination for investment dollars.\nBut as we move into the second half of 2021, one FAANG stock stands out for its value relative to its high-growth potential. If you buy this stock, my expectation is that it'll outperform its peers over the next six months and, perhaps, well beyond.\nImage source: Amazon.\nThe No. 1 FAANG stock to buy for the second half of 2021\nWhile I'm a fan of four of the five FAANGs (sorry, Netflix, I'm not thrilled about the increasingly competitive landscape for streaming), the one that I expect to outrun its peers is e-commerce giant Amazon. Before I explain how Amazon could be considered a \"value,\" as I've described it, you first need to understand how incredibly dominant the company's two core operating segments have become.\nThe first dominant segment, which is what initially put Amazon on the map, is its online retail marketplace. Back in April, eMarketer estimated that Amazon's share of U.S. online retail would expand to 40.4% in 2021. For context, this is more than five times higher than the next-closest competitor, Walmart, which controls an estimated 7.1% of online retail. In fact, if you add up No.'s 2 through 10, Amazon's share of U.S. retail e-commerce sales would still be over 50% larger.\nAdmittedly, retail doesn't offer the best margins, and Amazon knows it. That's why it's been pushing Prime memberships, which come with perks like free/expedited shipping and access to Amazon's streaming platform.\nThus far, more than 200 million people worldwide have signed up for Prime. That's great news because Prime members are incented to spend more than non-Prime customers in order to get the most out of the membership. Plus, the billions of dollars collected in fees from Prime helps buffer Amazon's retail margins and ensures it undercuts its brick-and-mortar competitors on price.\nThe second source of dominance comes from cloud-infrastructure services. With more businesses than ever pushing online and moving data into the cloud, demand for Amazon Web Services (AWS) storage and solutions has soared. Whereas most businesses struggled during the worst economic downturn in decades in 2020, AWS registered full-year sales growth of 30%.\nAccording to estimates from Canalys, which leaned on first-quarter operating results from major cloud service providers, the $13.5 billion AWS raked in during the first quarter gives it a 32% share of worldwide cloud-infrastructure spending. Since cloud services generate vastly superior margins to retail or advertising, AWS has quickly become the primary generator of operating income for Amazon, despite only accounting for an eighth of total sales.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAmazon is headed for an historically cheap valuation\nNow that you have a better idea of why Amazon is so unstoppable, it's time to get to the heart of the matter -- why it's going to outperform its FAANG peers over the next six months and, likely, well beyond.\nMost investors are familiar with using price-to-earnings or price-to-book as sort of a broad-stroke measure of value. But these traditional fundamental metrics have never worked well for Amazon, primarily because outgoing CEO Jeff Bezos aimed to reinvest the bulk of the company's operating cash flow to grow the business. Thus, price-to-operating cash flow has historically been a much more accurate measure of whether or not Amazon is relatively pricey or inexpensive.\nWhat's particularly interesting about Amazon is that it's ended each of the past 11 years with a price-to-cash-flow multiple of between 23 and 37. You'll find similar high cash flow premiums (albeit with different multiples) for Facebook and Alphabet, as well.\nAmazon has had a habit of trouncing Wall Street's annual cash flow per share estimates for years. Based on the 2021 estimate, it's valued at a multiple of 26 times cash flow.\nBut where things get interesting is in 2023 and 2024. The continued growth of online sales, higher advertising revenue, and more importantly, the growth of AWS is expected to more than double the company's operating cash flow.\nIf Wall Street's consensus estimate of $314.20 in annual cash flow per share proves accurate, Amazon could be valued at $9,000 a share by 2024 and still be well within its historic cash flow multiple range. None of the other FAANGs are expected to see their operating cash flow soar quite like Amazon by mid-decade.\nNominally speaking, Amazon doesn't look like a value. But taking into account its retail and cloud infrastructure dominance, as well as its rapidly expanding operating cash flow, it's the FAANG stock that clearly offers the most upside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}