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洞幽烛远
2021-08-07
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Economic Daily: Regulation "patches" and declines real estate speculators
洞幽烛远
2021-07-03
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From the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution
洞幽烛远
2025-05-21
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2021-06-29
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2021-06-24
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11:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Economic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109676905","media":"经济日报","summary":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，","content":"<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a continuous deterrent to real estate speculators who imagine that house prices will rise too fast. The regulation of the property market continues to increase.<b>On August 5 alone, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu introduced new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou has further raised the threshold for purchasing houses</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay two years of social security, and you can buy a house in the restricted area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4-year social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold for purchasing houses, aiming at cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low lottery winning rate of new houses should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to prevent too many buyers from getting together to snap up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time,<b>Chengdu includes donated housing in the total number of donee family housing units to review house purchase qualifications</b>。 In other words, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gifts has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing regulation on cracking down on the qualification of purchasing houses through \"fake divorce\"</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if a husband and wife divorce, and the number of housing units owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, neither party may purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of the purchase restriction policy, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid the purchase restriction, get the qualification to buy a house again, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for buying the first house, some families even choose to divorce and buy a house again. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to plugging the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The constant regulation measures are a continued deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about the rapid rise in housing prices</b>。</p><p>If the false fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to keep high pressure, and more importantly, long-term policies that are continuously and stably implemented are needed, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of house prices and the timing of house purchase.<b>Intensive regulation measures show that local governments, which are responsible for real estate regulation, are increasing their initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a few days ago emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since my country proposed the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the laws of market development and are accurate and effective. When individual cities show signs of overheating, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Fortunately,<b>The \"tools\" for regulating the real estate market are constantly enriching, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a good situation of healthier development.</p>","source":"lsy1597656426531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Economic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEconomic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">经济日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a continuous deterrent to real estate speculators who imagine that house prices will rise too fast. The regulation of the property market continues to increase.<b>On August 5 alone, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu introduced new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou has further raised the threshold for purchasing houses</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay two years of social security, and you can buy a house in the restricted area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4-year social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold for purchasing houses, aiming at cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low lottery winning rate of new houses should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to prevent too many buyers from getting together to snap up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time,<b>Chengdu includes donated housing in the total number of donee family housing units to review house purchase qualifications</b>。 In other words, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gifts has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing regulation on cracking down on the qualification of purchasing houses through \"fake divorce\"</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if a husband and wife divorce, and the number of housing units owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, neither party may purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of the purchase restriction policy, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid the purchase restriction, get the qualification to buy a house again, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for buying the first house, some families even choose to divorce and buy a house again. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to plugging the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The constant regulation measures are a continued deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about the rapid rise in housing prices</b>。</p><p>If the false fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to keep high pressure, and more importantly, long-term policies that are continuously and stably implemented are needed, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of house prices and the timing of house purchase.<b>Intensive regulation measures show that local governments, which are responsible for real estate regulation, are increasing their initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a few days ago emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since my country proposed the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the laws of market development and are accurate and effective. When individual cities show signs of overheating, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Fortunately,<b>The \"tools\" for regulating the real estate market are constantly enriching, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a good situation of healthier development.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661\">经济日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109676905","content_text":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，就有杭州、北京、成都三城推出房地产调控新规。\n杭州进一步抬高了购房门槛。新举措明确，取得杭州户口未满5年，需缴纳两年社保，可在限购区域购买一套住房；“非户籍+4年社保”的要求让非杭州户籍购房者买房难度加大。杭州调控新规抬高购房门槛目的在于打击短期投资客。此外，杭州还规定新房摇号中签率低的房源，按照社保缴纳月数依次排序，此举旨在避免过多购房者扎堆抢购。\n\n与此同时，成都将赠与住房计入受赠人家庭住房总套数审核购房资格。也就是说，通过赠与方式规避限购的漏洞被彻底堵住了。\n\n而北京的规定更具针对性，直接将调控重点放在打击通过“假离婚”获取购房资格上。新规明确，夫妻离异的，原家庭在离异前拥有住房套数不符合商品住房限购政策规定的，自离异之日起3年内，任何一方均不得购买商品住房。近年来，在一些热点城市，由于限购政策不断收紧，一些人为了获取购房资格，可谓绞尽脑汁。为避开限购，获得再购房的资格，以及享受购买首套住房的低首付款和低贷款利率，一些家庭甚至选择离婚再购房。北京新规让通过“假离婚”进行购房的难度加大，有利于封堵“假离婚”炒房漏洞。\n\n各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。不断出台的调控措施对于那些依然对房价过快上涨抱有幻想的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n虚火不灭，楼市调控就需保持高压，更需持续且稳定执行的长效政策，以便购房者对房价走势、购房时点有更稳定的预期。密集出台的调控措施表明，对房地产调控负有主体责任的地方政府，实施楼市调控的主动性和积极性都在增加。今年以来，住房和城乡建设部已多次约谈地方政府，并将这些城市纳入房地产市场监测重点城市名单。对于地方政府而言，“房住不炒”及“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”的定位应始终坚持。\n日前召开的中央政治局会议强调，要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。我国提出建立房地产长效机制以来，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期取得明显成效，表明采取的措施符合市场发展规律，精准有效。当个别城市出现过热苗头，须果断加大房地产市场调控力度和监管力度。可喜的是，房地产市场调控的“工具”在不断丰富，土地、金融、行政措施、市场整顿、财税等一系列措施，正在形成强大合力。相信随着房地产长效机制建立和完善，房地产市场将迎来更加健康发展的良好局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152958607,"gmtCreate":1625265952809,"gmtModify":1703739508025,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152958607","repostId":"2148808400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148808400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625238620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148808400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148808400","media":"脑极体","summary":"特斯拉在科技圈中，是个有话题有热点的黑网红，曝出来的永远都是各种控制系统失控出车祸的新闻，这不最近又闯祸了。近日消息，特斯拉召回部分进口和国产Model 3、国产Model Y电动汽车，共计28552","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>In the science and technology circle, it is a black online celebrity with topics and hot spots. What is exposed is always the news that various control systems are out of control and have car accidents, which has caused trouble again recently. Recently, Tesla recalled some imported and domestic Model 3 and domestic Model Y electric vehicles, totaling 285,520 vehicles. The main reason for the recall is that the vehicle has potential safety hazards of active cruise control system, which can easily cause the driver to incorrectly activate the active cruise function when turning or in D gear, which may lead to a sudden increase in vehicle speed and a collision in extreme cases.</p><p>It looks very scary, after all, it is related to the safety of the car. Tesla's large-scale recall this time is not a way to physically return the car to the factory, but through the technology of remotely upgrading OTA by the car, users can complete the online upgrade without going to the store. Can the seemingly serious security hazard be solved by simply updating the OTA upgrade security package? This recall method, without the follow-up routine safety test of the car factory, always feels uneasy, and even makes people have doubts about the safety of OTA technology itself. So are OTA systems safe at all? To answer this question, start with what is an OTA car.</p><p><b>What exactly is an OTA car?</b></p><p>The full name of OTA is \"Over-The-Air\", that is, Over-The-Air download technology (remote upgrade technology), which is a technology that downloads data packets through wireless networks to update The system and improve terminal functions and services. Our computers and mobile phones also use this OTA technology when updating the system. The purpose of OTA system upgrade is to repair system vulnerabilities, optimize and improve to obtain more functions, improve performance, or improve visual effects. Moreover, this update is to detect, match versions online after networking, download new code locally, and then perform installation, verification and other procedures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The earliest car that OTA technology was applied to was the ModeL S launched by Tesla in 2012. The content update scope included human-computer interaction, autonomous driving, power battery system and other modules. At that time, Tesla could complete key card loopholes, improve cruising range, increase top speed and improve riding comfort through OTA.</p><p>Automotive OTA technology can be divided into SOTA (Software OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Software) and FOTA (Firmware OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Firmware), that is, whole vehicle OTA, according to the difference of upgraded Firmware. Among them, SOTA can only update the software of vehicle application layer, only software such as vehicle machine and infotainment, and has almost no hardware scheduling capability. It is less difficult for car companies to realize it. Most OTA cars that are often publicized on the market only have SOTA technology. FOTA is to upgrade the system layer of the vehicle controller, which affects the power system, battery management and other systems of the vehicle. For example, the software of OS layer can be updated to the underlying systems such as chassis, power and ADAS.</p><p>The main difference between cars equipped with OTA technology and traditional cars is that in terms of performance, cars equipped with OTA technology realize richer functions. Generally speaking, they realize functions from these aspects: they can fix system bugs, update drivers, optimize UI interface, delete problematic apps, upgrade large versions, etc. Most automotive OTAs generally introduce online system updates for entertainment systems, navigation, etc.</p><p>Secondly, when the vehicle encounters software failure or needs to be updated, the traditional car needs to drive the car to a 4S shop to be repaired by a professional computer, which consumes time and energy, while the car equipped with OTA technology can complete the vehicle upgrade and repair the problem without leaving home, saving cost and time. For example, OTA cars can update the ECU software of the car. ECU is an electronic controller of an automobile. Generally speaking, it is the brain of a car. When a new car leaves the factory, its power will not be fully exerted, and it usually leaves some room for improvement. Brushing the ECU means coding the ECU on the basis that the original engine can bear it through some technical means to achieve the purpose of increasing horsepower or torque. Traditional cars need to use the original technology to brush the ECU, and OTA cars can upgrade this ability online.</p><p>From the above description, it can be seen that the functions and convenience of vehicles equipped with OTA technology are exciting and favored. However, because OTA technology itself involves the physical performance of vehicles, such as ECU changes, battery performance changes, and vehicle software experience functions, some reefs may be touched.</p><p><b>OTA cars are a double-edged sword</b></p><p>Judging from the conservative choices of traditional car companies, there is a reason why everyone has not accepted these wonderful experiences according to the order, and there is a reason why they are not so keen to carry them. OTA cars are also double-edged swords.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e367c30b535b8c2a265e8ccd88751a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, because of the mature R&D cycle and stable enterprise structure of traditional automobiles, there are too many newly matched components needed to realize OTA, and the cost of changing the production line and enterprise structure is too high. These new components need to be tested at high cost. Automobile manufacturers will not integrate a bunch of untested \"semi-finished products\" to the market, which will affect the safety of life and property.</p><p>From the analysis of technical reasons, it is mainly related to the structure of traditional cars. Traditional cars are purely mechanical structures, and the power unit is very complicated. The calibration of parameters such as fuel injection, braking system, shift logic, steering ratio and suspension style needs to be debugged and tested by engineers for tens of millions of times to achieve the best safety state before they can leave the factory. Rebuilding OTA becomes unstable for the power output and destroys the balanced parameter setting.</p><p>In addition to the security risks of physical hardware devices, OTA technology is at risk of being attacked by hackers during the remote upgrade process. In the process of downloading the car upgrade package, hackers can use network means to send the virus upgrade package to the vehicle, and then modify the system, remote control, and extort money. If some extreme weather or unstable environmental network is encountered, it will also lead to vulnerabilities in the upgrade package, which will cause the vehicle upgrade to fail.</p><p>We can see that OTA technology needs a lot of security tests in the matching of physical device components itself, as well as the protocol and design process. No matter which link of the link coupling between software and hardware devices has hidden dangers, it is a matter of life and death for the safety of enterprises and vehicles, and it can't be a child's play. Take the recall of Tesla cars as an example. For the operation of ACC adaptive cruise control, the conventional design scheme of car companies is to use button or independent lever operation to turn on the adaptive cruise function. However, Tesla is prone to misoperation when using the adaptive cruise control function, which is a design logic defect. Tesla's solution is to raise the threshold of activating active cruise, and add reminders of its activation and exit to avoid the possibility of accidental touch again.</p><p>If the logic setting of a small function is wrong, it will also bring unrestorable results. For safety issues, it can't be assumed that everyone is cautious and does not have a short circuit in the brain. It is not uncommon to pay attention to news recalls related to vehicles. For software failures, OTA can solve some failures through upgrading, but whether it will bring new problems will also be an urgent problem to be solved. It can be seen that OTA technology is a double-edged sword for car companies, and it is meaningless to discuss whether it is absolutely safe. The intelligent road of OTA cars will not be achieved overnight, and some system flaws will take time to gradually iterate and optimize. After all, no product is perfect at the beginning of design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094f51a71e4d181f644eb1da3c657c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the development trend of the whole market is that car companies are gradually embracing OTA technology, and they will not stop eating due to local restrictions. OTA technology is becoming the standard of smart cars, and its technology penetration rate has increased significantly. According to data, 30% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2020 had OTA capabilities. It will rise to 79% by 2025. According to the data released by Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, the OTA loading rate of new cars in the Chinese market has reached 22.42% in 2020, and it is expected to increase to 35-40% this year.</p><p>Although many car companies work hard to market OTA upgrade technology at the press conference, there are also many people swimming naked. Most car companies still stay at the level of SOTA upgrade, that is, the function upgrade at the level of entertainment interaction. There are only a handful of car companies that can carry out OTA upgrade of the whole vehicle. At present, Tesla, Ideal, XPeng, and other upstarts have OTA capabilities for the whole vehicle. The upgrade of OTA for the whole vehicle is a very obvious sign that smart cars are different from traditional cars. From the perspective of the development history of OTA automobiles, the demand for OTA in the automobile industry is gradually developing from component level, vehicle level and enterprise level to industry ecological level. Traditional car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have actively reformed and restructured their electronic architectures in this big change to realize OTA of the whole vehicle.</p><p><b>The road to the big test in the future of OTA cars</b></p><p>Nowadays, most car companies can achieve OTA of car-machine entertainment system, that is, SOTA, but the real hard nut is the whole vehicle FOTA. Because it involves the electronic architecture, hardware configuration and software self-research capability of vehicle manufacturers on new vehicles. The electronic controller needs to be deeply integrated with the update mechanism of the device, in what state the vehicle is flashed, and how to ensure the stability and safety of the update process. These implementation difficulties should be considered. For example, ECUs (automotive electronic control components) of automobile internal components are hundreds in the architecture of the whole vehicle, which are connected in different communication networks. Each network has different data transmission protocols, which is more complicated. The more controllers are upgraded, the more difficult it is to double the network communication topology protocol. OTA suppliers need to have a clear understanding of the characteristics of each communication line to efficiently realize software upgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5529364f1b506bceb17619a2c75f3112\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of information security, OTA data transmission has the potential risk of being counterfeited, stolen and attacked. During the communication process, it will be held hostage and tampered with by malicious hackers, which may lead to abnormal vehicle operation, privacy leakage, financial and even life safety threats. It is particularly important to safeguard the safety upgrade road of OTA vehicles. OTA automobile manufacturers need to build a well-designed identification key technology architecture, and the verification mechanism and upgrade conditions need to be controlled in both directions to ensure the information security system integrating end and cloud.</p><p>The realization of OTA vehicle functions relies on the development of gateway protocol, network security, continuous development of computing algorithm technology and other capabilities. Although electronic modules and software technology are developed in coordination and applied more and more in the whole vehicle, the technology is still not mature to the stage of widely recognized by the society. The development road of smart cars is long and long, and there is still a lot of room for update and improvement. The optimization of OTA vehicle functions and the differentiation of services need to evolve simultaneously. Fortunately, we will witness the surprises brought by OTA cars together.</p>","source":"lsy1577414888172","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">脑极体</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>In the science and technology circle, it is a black online celebrity with topics and hot spots. What is exposed is always the news that various control systems are out of control and have car accidents, which has caused trouble again recently. Recently, Tesla recalled some imported and domestic Model 3 and domestic Model Y electric vehicles, totaling 285,520 vehicles. The main reason for the recall is that the vehicle has potential safety hazards of active cruise control system, which can easily cause the driver to incorrectly activate the active cruise function when turning or in D gear, which may lead to a sudden increase in vehicle speed and a collision in extreme cases.</p><p>It looks very scary, after all, it is related to the safety of the car. Tesla's large-scale recall this time is not a way to physically return the car to the factory, but through the technology of remotely upgrading OTA by the car, users can complete the online upgrade without going to the store. Can the seemingly serious security hazard be solved by simply updating the OTA upgrade security package? This recall method, without the follow-up routine safety test of the car factory, always feels uneasy, and even makes people have doubts about the safety of OTA technology itself. So are OTA systems safe at all? To answer this question, start with what is an OTA car.</p><p><b>What exactly is an OTA car?</b></p><p>The full name of OTA is \"Over-The-Air\", that is, Over-The-Air download technology (remote upgrade technology), which is a technology that downloads data packets through wireless networks to update The system and improve terminal functions and services. Our computers and mobile phones also use this OTA technology when updating the system. The purpose of OTA system upgrade is to repair system vulnerabilities, optimize and improve to obtain more functions, improve performance, or improve visual effects. Moreover, this update is to detect, match versions online after networking, download new code locally, and then perform installation, verification and other procedures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The earliest car that OTA technology was applied to was the ModeL S launched by Tesla in 2012. The content update scope included human-computer interaction, autonomous driving, power battery system and other modules. At that time, Tesla could complete key card loopholes, improve cruising range, increase top speed and improve riding comfort through OTA.</p><p>Automotive OTA technology can be divided into SOTA (Software OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Software) and FOTA (Firmware OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Firmware), that is, whole vehicle OTA, according to the difference of upgraded Firmware. Among them, SOTA can only update the software of vehicle application layer, only software such as vehicle machine and infotainment, and has almost no hardware scheduling capability. It is less difficult for car companies to realize it. Most OTA cars that are often publicized on the market only have SOTA technology. FOTA is to upgrade the system layer of the vehicle controller, which affects the power system, battery management and other systems of the vehicle. For example, the software of OS layer can be updated to the underlying systems such as chassis, power and ADAS.</p><p>The main difference between cars equipped with OTA technology and traditional cars is that in terms of performance, cars equipped with OTA technology realize richer functions. Generally speaking, they realize functions from these aspects: they can fix system bugs, update drivers, optimize UI interface, delete problematic apps, upgrade large versions, etc. Most automotive OTAs generally introduce online system updates for entertainment systems, navigation, etc.</p><p>Secondly, when the vehicle encounters software failure or needs to be updated, the traditional car needs to drive the car to a 4S shop to be repaired by a professional computer, which consumes time and energy, while the car equipped with OTA technology can complete the vehicle upgrade and repair the problem without leaving home, saving cost and time. For example, OTA cars can update the ECU software of the car. ECU is an electronic controller of an automobile. Generally speaking, it is the brain of a car. When a new car leaves the factory, its power will not be fully exerted, and it usually leaves some room for improvement. Brushing the ECU means coding the ECU on the basis that the original engine can bear it through some technical means to achieve the purpose of increasing horsepower or torque. Traditional cars need to use the original technology to brush the ECU, and OTA cars can upgrade this ability online.</p><p>From the above description, it can be seen that the functions and convenience of vehicles equipped with OTA technology are exciting and favored. However, because OTA technology itself involves the physical performance of vehicles, such as ECU changes, battery performance changes, and vehicle software experience functions, some reefs may be touched.</p><p><b>OTA cars are a double-edged sword</b></p><p>Judging from the conservative choices of traditional car companies, there is a reason why everyone has not accepted these wonderful experiences according to the order, and there is a reason why they are not so keen to carry them. OTA cars are also double-edged swords.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e367c30b535b8c2a265e8ccd88751a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, because of the mature R&D cycle and stable enterprise structure of traditional automobiles, there are too many newly matched components needed to realize OTA, and the cost of changing the production line and enterprise structure is too high. These new components need to be tested at high cost. Automobile manufacturers will not integrate a bunch of untested \"semi-finished products\" to the market, which will affect the safety of life and property.</p><p>From the analysis of technical reasons, it is mainly related to the structure of traditional cars. Traditional cars are purely mechanical structures, and the power unit is very complicated. The calibration of parameters such as fuel injection, braking system, shift logic, steering ratio and suspension style needs to be debugged and tested by engineers for tens of millions of times to achieve the best safety state before they can leave the factory. Rebuilding OTA becomes unstable for the power output and destroys the balanced parameter setting.</p><p>In addition to the security risks of physical hardware devices, OTA technology is at risk of being attacked by hackers during the remote upgrade process. In the process of downloading the car upgrade package, hackers can use network means to send the virus upgrade package to the vehicle, and then modify the system, remote control, and extort money. If some extreme weather or unstable environmental network is encountered, it will also lead to vulnerabilities in the upgrade package, which will cause the vehicle upgrade to fail.</p><p>We can see that OTA technology needs a lot of security tests in the matching of physical device components itself, as well as the protocol and design process. No matter which link of the link coupling between software and hardware devices has hidden dangers, it is a matter of life and death for the safety of enterprises and vehicles, and it can't be a child's play. Take the recall of Tesla cars as an example. For the operation of ACC adaptive cruise control, the conventional design scheme of car companies is to use button or independent lever operation to turn on the adaptive cruise function. However, Tesla is prone to misoperation when using the adaptive cruise control function, which is a design logic defect. Tesla's solution is to raise the threshold of activating active cruise, and add reminders of its activation and exit to avoid the possibility of accidental touch again.</p><p>If the logic setting of a small function is wrong, it will also bring unrestorable results. For safety issues, it can't be assumed that everyone is cautious and does not have a short circuit in the brain. It is not uncommon to pay attention to news recalls related to vehicles. For software failures, OTA can solve some failures through upgrading, but whether it will bring new problems will also be an urgent problem to be solved. It can be seen that OTA technology is a double-edged sword for car companies, and it is meaningless to discuss whether it is absolutely safe. The intelligent road of OTA cars will not be achieved overnight, and some system flaws will take time to gradually iterate and optimize. After all, no product is perfect at the beginning of design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094f51a71e4d181f644eb1da3c657c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the development trend of the whole market is that car companies are gradually embracing OTA technology, and they will not stop eating due to local restrictions. OTA technology is becoming the standard of smart cars, and its technology penetration rate has increased significantly. According to data, 30% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2020 had OTA capabilities. It will rise to 79% by 2025. According to the data released by Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, the OTA loading rate of new cars in the Chinese market has reached 22.42% in 2020, and it is expected to increase to 35-40% this year.</p><p>Although many car companies work hard to market OTA upgrade technology at the press conference, there are also many people swimming naked. Most car companies still stay at the level of SOTA upgrade, that is, the function upgrade at the level of entertainment interaction. There are only a handful of car companies that can carry out OTA upgrade of the whole vehicle. At present, Tesla, Ideal, XPeng, and other upstarts have OTA capabilities for the whole vehicle. The upgrade of OTA for the whole vehicle is a very obvious sign that smart cars are different from traditional cars. From the perspective of the development history of OTA automobiles, the demand for OTA in the automobile industry is gradually developing from component level, vehicle level and enterprise level to industry ecological level. Traditional car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have actively reformed and restructured their electronic architectures in this big change to realize OTA of the whole vehicle.</p><p><b>The road to the big test in the future of OTA cars</b></p><p>Nowadays, most car companies can achieve OTA of car-machine entertainment system, that is, SOTA, but the real hard nut is the whole vehicle FOTA. Because it involves the electronic architecture, hardware configuration and software self-research capability of vehicle manufacturers on new vehicles. The electronic controller needs to be deeply integrated with the update mechanism of the device, in what state the vehicle is flashed, and how to ensure the stability and safety of the update process. These implementation difficulties should be considered. For example, ECUs (automotive electronic control components) of automobile internal components are hundreds in the architecture of the whole vehicle, which are connected in different communication networks. Each network has different data transmission protocols, which is more complicated. The more controllers are upgraded, the more difficult it is to double the network communication topology protocol. OTA suppliers need to have a clear understanding of the characteristics of each communication line to efficiently realize software upgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5529364f1b506bceb17619a2c75f3112\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of information security, OTA data transmission has the potential risk of being counterfeited, stolen and attacked. During the communication process, it will be held hostage and tampered with by malicious hackers, which may lead to abnormal vehicle operation, privacy leakage, financial and even life safety threats. It is particularly important to safeguard the safety upgrade road of OTA vehicles. OTA automobile manufacturers need to build a well-designed identification key technology architecture, and the verification mechanism and upgrade conditions need to be controlled in both directions to ensure the information security system integrating end and cloud.</p><p>The realization of OTA vehicle functions relies on the development of gateway protocol, network security, continuous development of computing algorithm technology and other capabilities. Although electronic modules and software technology are developed in coordination and applied more and more in the whole vehicle, the technology is still not mature to the stage of widely recognized by the society. The development road of smart cars is long and long, and there is still a lot of room for update and improvement. The optimization of OTA vehicle functions and the differentiation of services need to evolve simultaneously. Fortunately, we will witness the surprises brought by OTA cars together.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_39xXiiqsAP9SDbQjbWLA\">脑极体</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_39xXiiqsAP9SDbQjbWLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148808400","content_text":"特斯拉在科技圈中，是个有话题有热点的黑网红，曝出来的永远都是各种控制系统失控出车祸的新闻，这不最近又闯祸了。近日消息，特斯拉召回部分进口和国产Model 3、国产Model Y电动汽车，共计285520辆，召回的主要原因是车辆存在主动巡航控制系统安全隐患，易造成驾驶员在转弯或者在D挡位情形误激活主动巡航功能，可能出现车辆速度突增情形，极端情况下可能导致车辆发生碰撞。\n看起来非常吓人，毕竟是关系到用车安全的问题。特斯拉此次的大规模召回不是物理上将车返厂返点的方式，而是通过汽车远程升级OTA的技术，用户无需到店即可完成在线升级。看似很严重的安全隐患仅仅通过OTA升级安全包的更新就可以解决问题吗？这种召回方式，没有车厂后续的常规安全测试，总觉得让人不安，甚至也会让人对OTA技术本身是否安全有疑虑。那么OTA系统到底安全吗？想要回答这个问题，先从什么是OTA汽车聊起。\nOTA汽车到底是什么？\nOTA的全称“Over-The-Air”，即空中下载技术（远程升级技术），通过无线网络下载数据包从而对系统更新进而改善终端功能和服务的技术。我们的电脑和手机进行系统更新的时候也是用的这个OTA技术。OTA进行系统升级的目的就是修复系统漏洞、优化改善以获得更多的功能、性能提升，又或者是视觉效果的改善，且这种更新是通过联网后在线检测、匹配版本、下载新的代码到本地进而执行安装、校验等程序。\n\nOTA技术最早应用于的汽车就是在2012年特斯拉推出的ModeL S上，内容更新范围包括人机交互、自动驾驶、动力电池系统等模块，当时特斯拉可以通过OTA完成钥匙卡漏洞、提升续航里程、提高最高速度、提升乘坐舒适度等。\n汽车OTA技术根据升级固件的差异，可以分为SOTA（Software OTA，软件空中升级）和FOTA（Firmware OTA，固件空中升级），即整车OTA。其中，SOTA只能对车辆应用层软件更新，仅限车机、信息娱乐等软件，几乎没有硬件调度的能力，车企实现难度较小，市面上经常看到宣传的OTA汽车大多数都是仅具有SOTA技术。而FOTA是对车辆控制器的系统层进行升级，影响的是车的动力系统、电池管理等系统，比如可以对底盘、动力、ADAS等底层系统进行OS层的软件更新。\n搭载OTA技术的汽车跟传统的汽车主要的区别是：在性能方面，搭载OTA技术的汽车车载实现的功能更丰富，总的来说是从这几方面实现功能：可以修复系统bug，更新驱动，优化UI界面，删除问题APP，大版本升级等。大多数车用OTA一般是针对娱乐系统、导航等推出在线系统更新。\n其次是车辆遇到软件故障或是需要更新时，传统汽车需要将车开到4S店利用专业电脑修复，耗费的时间精力，而搭载OTA技术的汽车可以足不出户就完成车辆升级，修复问题，节省成本与时间。比如OTA汽车可以对汽车的ECU软件进行更新。ECU是汽车电子控制器，通俗的来说就是汽车的大脑，新车出厂时动力不会完全发挥出来，通常会留下一部分可提升的空间，刷ECU就是通过一些技术手段，在原厂发动机能承受的基础上对ECU进行编码，达到提升马力或扭矩的目的，传统汽车想要刷ECU需要借助原厂的技术，OTA汽车可以在线升级这种能力。\n从上述的描述可以看出搭载OTA技术的车辆实现的功能以及便捷性让人心动与青睐，但是因为OTA技术本身涉及到对车辆物理性能比如ECU改变、电池性能改变、以及车辆软件体验功能的改变，在这其中，也有一些暗礁可能被触及。\nOTA汽车是把双刃剑\n从传统车企的保守选择来看，大家没有照单全收这些美好的体验，没有那么热衷搭载也是有原因的，OTA汽车也是把双刃剑。\n\n首先是因为传统汽车成熟的研发周期和稳定的企业架构，想要实现OTA需要新匹配的元器件太多，产线与企业结构的改变成本太大，这些新的元器件都需要经过高成本的测试，汽车厂商不会将一堆未经测试考验的“半成品”集成后推向市场，影响生命财产安全。\n从技术原因分析来看，主要是跟传统汽车的结构有关。传统的汽车都是纯机械结构，动力单元非常复杂，喷油量、刹车系统、换挡逻辑、转向比、悬挂风格等参数关系标定，需要被工程师千万次调试测试到最佳安全状态才能出厂。而重新搭建OTA对于动力输出来说变得不稳定，破坏平衡的参数设定。\n除了因为物理硬件设备的安全隐患外，OTA技术在远程升级过程中，有被黑客攻击的风险。汽车在下载升级包的过程中，黑客可以利用网络手段将被病毒升级包发送给车辆，进而修改系统、远程控制、勒索钱财。如果遇到一些极端天气或者环境网络不稳定的情况，也会导致升级包出现漏洞，进而使得车辆升级失败。\n我们可以看到OTA技术在物理设备元器件本身的匹配以及协议和设计过程需要经过大量的安全测试，软硬件设备之间的链接耦合无论是哪个环节存在隐患，对于企业和车辆的安全都是生死存亡的问题，不能儿戏。拿特斯拉汽车此次召回事件来说，ACC自适应巡航控制的操作,常规的车企设计方案是采用按键式或者独立拨杆的操作开启自适应巡航功能，但是特斯拉在使用自适应巡航控制功能的时候容易有误操作，这是一个设计逻辑上的缺陷，特斯拉的解决方案是提升激活主动巡航的阈值，加入了其激活和退出的提醒，避免误触的可能再发生。\n小小的一个功能逻辑设定有误的话，也会带来万劫不复的结果，对于安全问题，不能假设所有人都是小心谨慎没有大脑短路的时候。如果关注车辆相关的的新闻召回事件屡见不鲜，对于软件故障，OTA可以通过升级可以解决部分故障，但是是否还会带来新的问题，也会是个亟待解决的问题。可以看到OTA技术对于车企而言，是把双刃剑，讨论其是否绝对安全也没有意义，OTA汽车的智能化之路，不会一蹴而就，一些系统的瑕疵需要时间去逐渐迭代优化，毕竟没有任何产品在设计之初就是完美的。\n\n目前整个市场发展的趋势就是车企逐渐在拥抱OTA技术，不会因为局部的限制因噎废食。OTA技术正成为智能汽车标配， 其技术渗透率提升尤为明显。有数据显示，在2020年全球售出的车辆中，有30％具有OTA功能。到2025年，该比例将上升至79％。而根据高工智能汽车研究院发布的数据，2020年中国市场新车OTA搭载率已经达到22.42%，预计今年将提升至35-40%。\n尽管不少车企在发布会卖力营销OTA升级技术，但裸泳的人也不少，大多数车企还是停留在SOTA升级层面，也就是娱乐互动层面的功能升级，能够进行整车OTA升级的车企屈指可数。目前有着整车OTA能力的是特斯拉、理想、小鹏、等新贵。而面向于整车OTA升级，才是智能汽车区别于传统汽车的一个非常显著的标志。从OTA汽车的发展历程上来看，汽车行业对于OTA的需求是逐步由零部件级、整车级、企业级发展到行业生态级。宝马、大众、上汽通用等传统车企在这个大的变革中积极改革进行电子架构重构，以实现整车OTA。\nOTA汽车未来的大考之路\n现在大部分车企都能做到车机娱乐系统的OTA，也就是 SOTA，但真正难啃的硬骨头是整车FOTA。因为其涉及整车制造商在新车上的电子架构、硬件配置以及软件自研能力。电子控制器需要与设备的更新机制进行深度整合，车辆在什么状态下进行刷写，如何确保确保更新过程的稳定性与安全性，这些实现上的难点都是要考虑的。比如汽车内部件的ECU（汽车电子控制元器件），它们在整车的架构中数量为几百个，连接在不同的通讯网络中，每条网络的数据传输协议不同，比较复杂，升级的控制器越多考量的网络通讯拓扑结构协议翻番难度上升，需要OTA供应商对每条通讯线路的特点有清晰的认知才能高效地实现软件升级。\n\n在信息安全方面，OTA数据传输的过程中，有被仿冒、窃取、攻击的潜在风险，在通讯过程中会被不怀好意的黑客挟持与篡改，可能导致车辆运行异常、隐私泄露、财务甚至是生命安全受到威胁。保障OTA汽车的安全升级之路尤为重要。OTA汽车厂商需要搭建设计完善的标识秘钥技术架构，验证机制与升级条件的限定需要双向把控，才能保障端云一体的信息安全体系。\nOTA汽车功能的实现背后依托网关协议、网络安全、算力算法技术持续开发等多方面能力发展，虽然电子模块与软件技术协同发展，在整车上应用的越来越多，但技术还是没有成熟到社会广泛认同的阶段，智能汽车的发展之路长途漫漫，更新和改善的空间还是很大，OTA汽车功能上的优化，服务的差异化需要同步进化，幸运的是我们会一起见证OTA汽车带来的惊喜。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150517724,"gmtCreate":1624921505068,"gmtModify":1703847769587,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150517724","repostId":"2146002531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128080212,"gmtCreate":1624495318936,"gmtModify":1703838254342,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks.","listText":"Thanks.","text":"Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128080212","repostId":"2145086880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145086880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624415733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145086880?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation trading\" can take a break","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145086880","media":"首席经济学家论坛","summary":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的","content":"<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and let prices continue to rise, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposing traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>","source":"lsy1583127396478","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation trading\" can take a break</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation trading\" can take a break\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">首席经济学家论坛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and let prices continue to rise, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposing traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257\">首席经济学家论坛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145086880","content_text":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的收益率曲线显然不利于金融股；\n\n2、通过10年期美债的名义利率和实际利率差值拟合的通胀预期在议息会议后也明显下行，从6月近2.5%的高点到现在下降了大概20多个BP；\n\n3、实际利率等于名义利率减去通胀预期，当名义利率下降的时候，黄金仍然在继续下跌，而黄金价格历来与美国国债的实际利率有反向关系，也就是说，实际利率在名义利率下降的时候竟然是上升的，这只能说明通缩预期确实比较强；\n4、大宗商品单边上涨预期似乎已不存在了，以铜为例，伦敦金属交易所的铜库存增加了24925吨，猛增17％。调研了一圈下来，说是因为铜的供需本身没那么好，铜价之所以强势很大程度上依赖的是宽松的流动性支撑，在涨价预期下，产业链买涨不买跌，库存都隐性化了，但现在美联储加息预期提前了，国储也抛售库存直接给下游企业了，当涨价预期没有了之后，囤货的隐性库存直接显性化了，涨价预期已经被动摇了。\n5、从近期美股市场的表现来看，美股的市场风格偏好也发生了明显的变化，纳指明显跑赢道指，成长的表现要显著强于周期和价值。\n那么，问题来了，究竟发生了什么让市场的预期转变得如此迅速？\n为了解答这一问题，先简要分析一下通胀是怎么来的。\n一、通胀的由来\n这一轮美国的量化宽松和2008年金融危机是有本质区别的。\n这一次美国直接通过财政刺激，把美联储放出去的票子发到了居民手里，而2008年金融危机的量化宽松是把钞票给到金融机构那，帮助金融机构处理坏账和非流动性资产。\n把钞票给到居民手里，直接可以创造总需求，而给到金融机构手里，还要等实体有融资需求了，才能创造总需求。\n由于直升机撒钱的需求刺激模式脱离了传统的历史经验，生产调整的速度慢于需求扩张的速度，这就导致生产端有供应链瓶颈和商品的供不应求。\n看美国库销比的数据就可以说明一些问题。经季调的零售商库销比是最低的，只有1.07，批发商库存也比较低，有1.22，然而制造商库销比却高达1.48，还处于高位。\n\n这说明什么呢？\n这说明美国发了福利后，美国人民买买买的消费需求太旺盛了，导致零售商那都被买得没货了，但由于劳动力还在领失业救济，不愿意回来工作，回来工作的也主要在服务业，而不是制造业，再加上原材料贵、运力紧张，所以生产是没有怎么恢复的。\n美国5月单月的零售数据是6202亿美元，而2019年美国单月的零售数据也就5000亿美元出头，再看工业生产指数，5月不到100，但2019年有102左右。\n换句话说，消费已远在疫情前以上，但生产还没有恢复到疫情前。\n\n本来美国的进口供应商有更多的选择，比如通过对中国的纺织业发难和推高上游成本，倒逼中国产业链外迁到人力成本更低的地方（印度、东南亚）。既然消费需求好，生产又不足，那供需缺口应该怎么满足呢？也只能靠进口了。\n没想到的是，4月印度出现的疫情搅乱了这一计划。疫情不仅出现在了印度，还快速扩散到了东南亚国家、台湾地区和日本，这些地方也多为世界的生产基地，结果导致中国产业链不仅没有外迁，反而使生产资源进一步向国内集聚， FDI近期是加速往国内流入的。\n\n由于美国的零售品库存的缺口是刚性的，拥有生产能力的国家和地区也因新一轮疫情停摆，美国消费和库存的缺口基本上只能靠中国的进口来平衡了。\n\n二、接不动的订单\n现在回来看看国内。\n由于中国率先控制了疫情，疫情期间通过信贷补贴了企业，保住了企业和生产能力，所以从去年到现在，中国一直都是稳定全球通胀的中坚力量，全球的供应体系高度依赖于中国的生产，海运费用比疫情前涨了4-5倍都不止，和海运相关的个股涨幅也有好几倍。\n\n但看现在的经济数据，5月PMI新出口订单只有48.3%，到了枯荣线的下面，相比前值50.4%，有较为明显的下行。5月的出口增速为27.9%，也不如前值的32.3%，现在市场关于外需的见顶讨论开始多了起来。\n从逻辑和事实上来讲，企业应该是不会缺订单的，因为当下海外只能依赖中国的产能。\n我们倾向于认为出口新订单的下降不是因为企业没有订单，而是企业不敢轻易接订单了。\n企业为什么不敢接订单呢？主要原因是上游大宗商品上得太快了，接单就亏钱。\n上游大宗商品价格涨得快的原因主要有三个：\n1、美国的需求可以靠印钞票印出来，大多数有色金属是美元定价，美元下行和需求扩张本身就利好上游大宗商品。\n2、上游供给打不开，有的是因为新兴市场缺少疫苗导致无法复工，印度疫情扩散加剧了这一趋势，比如半导体供应链紧张、废铜还有一些稀有矿的供给都受到了扰动；有的是因为工会强势；还有的是觉得需求没有持续性，短期需求好只是美国印出来的，没有可持续性，现在扩产能到产出释放都是未来三年以后的事了，但未来如果没有这么好的需求，就会赔钱，所以不如趁现在价格涨维持寡头垄断，当下赚足现金流就好。\n3、国内有定价权的大宗商品，因“双碳”目标、安全生产等诉求，市场有减产预期，导致库存隐性化，而且下游也会预期未来供应会紧缺，只能当下恐慌性备货，使得上游价格上涨预期加剧。\n从数据来看，5月PPI同比高达9%，而CPI同比仅为1.3%，无论是PMI原材料价格减去产成品价格还是PPI原材料价格同比减去PPI加工价格同比都创下了历史新高，这说明下游生产制造环节在不断忍受着上游的通胀。\n\n但凡事都得有个度，当上游上涨的矛盾积累到了一定程度后，企业长期“增收不增利”、“吃力不讨好”，自然就不敢接订单了，因为订单接得越多，反而会越赔钱。\n\n三、谜一样的议息会议\n6月议息会议最有趣的一点就是市场关注的Taper基本上没怎么提，表述很模糊，只说Taper开启的前提是达到经济取得“实质性进展”的目标，而“实质性进展”的标准是由美联储决定的。\n但6月议息会议最让市场意外的一点是加息预期提前了，认为2022年应当加息的成员从4人上升到了7人，2023年应当加息的成员从7人上升到了13人。\n综合来看，6月议息会议是引导加息预期提前，并且对市场最关注的Taper“闭口不提”。\n关键是，美联储这么做的意图是什么？\n议息会议后，市场走的是美元大幅上涨而10年美债收益率下行的组合，这种走势组合让人很疑惑。\n先来猜测一下，美联储为什么对Taper闭口不提。\n一季度的时候，因为市场形成了疫苗有效接种后美国经济会快速复苏的乐观预期，当时市场对通胀的预期很靠前，所以一季度10年期美债收益率上升的速度非常快，没几个交易日就从不到1%的收益率上行到了3月末1.78%的高点。\n但美联储认为市场预期走得太前了，不断在强调通胀是暂时的，没有去迎合市场预期。二季度美联储的扩表也在继续，在财政存款巨量投放的背景下，各类短端利率都压到了0附近。\n\n二季度美联储这么做也是有原因的。一季度的时候，疫苗虽然在快速接种，美国经济受益于疫苗，确实是在快速修复，但无论是就业数量还是薪资增速，都远没有达到疫情前的水平。\n退出宽松就意味着财政要退坡，但一季度的经济环境是否能吸纳因福利退出而回流的劳动力大军，还是有很高的不确定性的。\n但到了二季度末，很明显可以看到经济已经有了过热的倾向，劳动力市场开始供不应求。工资上涨的同时职位空缺人数也在不断上升。\n近期美国就业职位空缺人数已高达929万人，而2019年差不多就700万人左右，职位空缺率高达6%，而2019年的平均水平也就在4%左右的水平。\n\n到了这个时候，由于就业市场过热，已初步具备失业救济退出的基础。阻碍就业复苏的不再是经济复苏不给力，而是救济金甚至超过了许多雇主可以支付的工资，才导致劳动力市场复苏缓慢。所以从6月开始，已经有部分州开始取消每周300美元的失业救济金。\n我们认为Taper“闭口不提”，美联储要的经济“实质性进展”的目标，大概率指的是失业救济退出以后，就业数据要出现明显的新增，这才能验证美国经济已经彻底走上正轨。\n这也是为什么此次议息会议并没有上调失业率目标，在持续的新增就业低于预期之后还维持在4.5%的失业水平，因为美联储预期失业救济退出之后，劳动力就会逐步回归到就业市场。\n简而言之，只有等到就业新增真的有明显改善后，才能达到美联储要的“实质性进展”的目标条件。也只有等到那个时候，美联储才会认真考虑量化宽松规模是不是要缩减。\n下面我们再来回顾一下美国的通胀是怎么形成的。\n第一个是印钞机给居民发钱导致消费者“买买买”；第二个是本土生产没有修复，因为就业大军没有回归的、物流成本上升和上游原材料供给稀缺（比如汽车缺芯、盖房子缺木材）；第三个是原材料价格、运费等各类成本涨得太快，中国也接不动出口新订单。\n在需求扩张较快和供应相对紧缺的背景下，我们看到美国通胀呈现出了“无量上涨”的特征。由于供给根本匹配不上需求的扩张的速度，居民部门想买都买不到货，价格就只能跳涨了。\n这跟美国房地产市场很像，成屋销售数据从今年年初就开始下降了，但这并不是需求减弱了，因为成屋销售的售价还在加速上行，与此同时，美国成屋库存在被消耗。\n\n要想缓解通胀压力，其实逻辑也很简单，要么抑制需求，比如少发点福利，要么引导就业回归到各个岗位上去，把生产弄起来。福利下去了，需求弱了，而生产变多了，通胀压力自然就下去了。\n现在的关键就是后续就业新增能不能上去，这又取决于：\n1、全民免疫后，美国服务业复苏的强度，如果油价生产供应比较稳定，油价涨跌可以作为服务业修复高频代理指标；\n2、美国的中小企业和供应链是不是因为疫情受到了中长期损害，如果是的话，美国的供应链和生产环节吸纳不了多少就业，也就起不到修复生产的效果。\n这些宏观经济变量，至少从现在来看，还是有不确定性的，要等到失业救济退出后，就业能否放量，答案才能逐渐明晰。\n所以，在就业放量补缺口前，美联储是不会忙着提Taper的，给居民部门发福利也不会那么快退出。从美国劳工部的数据来看，70%的失业救济到了今年三季度末才会陆续退出。\n如果美国短期既做不到抑制需求，也无法扩大生产规模，那缓解通胀就只有一个办法，降上游成本，让生产国的汇率贬值，通过扩大对生产国的进口来补充零售的库存。\n这就是为什么美联储不敢提Taper,因为就业市场能不能修复还有一定的不确定，但美联储愿意把市场的加息预期提前，把美元拉上去，因为这样既可以让生产国的汇率贬值进而扩大进口，也可以打压一下上游大宗的价格，给本国和生产国一些生产的利润，方便重建零售库存。\n四、市场含义\n故事讲到这里，我们认为后续市场的逻辑就非常清晰了。\n至少在短期，没有过于关注美联储是否会Taper的必要，因为这个需要就业缺口修复的确认后才会发生，然后才会成为市场定价的焦点。\n现在大家都热炒的通胀或滞胀，本质上都是供需急剧错配的结果，当供给的弹性弱到一定程度以后，通胀是以“无量上涨”的形式出现的。\n所以，现在全球经济的主要矛盾不再是要继续发钞票去拉高总需求，让物价继续往上走，而是修复脆弱的供应链，通过供给修复来缓和通胀的预期。\n换言之，市场定价通缩的背后不一定是在定价经济需求的走弱，更有可能是在定价供应链瓶颈的短期修复。\n如果美国短期无法通过需求生产的再平衡重建自身的库存，解决供应链瓶颈的问题就需要通过扩大进口来解决。\n由于大宗商品价格上涨使得生产供应链的成本攀升太快，接不动订单，从这个角度来看，打压上游大宗商品的价格在现阶段会成为中美两国的共识。\n两国角力的重点，在当下也不会是“撒胡椒面”式的，而是有可能集中在会形成“技术代差”的科技创新领域。\n所以，当下最好别有大宗商品价格单边上涨的预期，赌大宗商品价格继续单边上涨大概率是会吃亏的。\n其实大宗商品涨价的支撑也不完全是因为当前的需求有多强，求大于供的预期起到了很大的作用。\n很多大宗商品的低库存并一定是因为当下需求旺盛而供应不足导致的，而是因为存在未来需求会远大于供给的预期，导致下游恐慌性囤货，叠加贸易商库存囤积，价格上涨导致库存隐性化，而库存隐性化又进一步驱动了价格上涨。\n一旦价格单边上涨的预期没了，隐藏的库存就都跑出来了。\n如果说美国需要通过进口和人民币汇率贬值来缓解消费品库存不足的矛盾，这意味着中国三季度出口维持高位的问题不大。\n这一轮国内压着房地产和基建，无论是工业生产还是制造业投资，基本上是靠出口驱动的，只要出口还能维持高位，那就意味着三季度经济基本面至少是不弱的。\n只要有基本面搭台，股票的风险偏好就能有保障，而且上游价格涨幅如果真能控制，中下游的盈利空间也就出来了，可以关注成长板块的机会，尤其要关注底层核心零部件和材料自主可控的政策溢价。\n当然，“通胀交易”可以暂歇了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":891905053,"gmtCreate":1628313286272,"gmtModify":1703504978278,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look","listText":"Look","text":"Look","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://t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11:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Economic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109676905","media":"经济日报","summary":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，","content":"<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a continuous deterrent to real estate speculators who imagine that house prices will rise too fast. The regulation of the property market continues to increase.<b>On August 5 alone, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu introduced new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou has further raised the threshold for purchasing houses</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay two years of social security, and you can buy a house in the restricted area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4-year social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold for purchasing houses, aiming at cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low lottery winning rate of new houses should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to prevent too many buyers from getting together to snap up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time,<b>Chengdu includes donated housing in the total number of donee family housing units to review house purchase qualifications</b>。 In other words, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gifts has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing regulation on cracking down on the qualification of purchasing houses through \"fake divorce\"</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if a husband and wife divorce, and the number of housing units owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, neither party may purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of the purchase restriction policy, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid the purchase restriction, get the qualification to buy a house again, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for buying the first house, some families even choose to divorce and buy a house again. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to plugging the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The constant regulation measures are a continued deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about the rapid rise in housing prices</b>。</p><p>If the false fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to keep high pressure, and more importantly, long-term policies that are continuously and stably implemented are needed, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of house prices and the timing of house purchase.<b>Intensive regulation measures show that local governments, which are responsible for real estate regulation, are increasing their initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a few days ago emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since my country proposed the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the laws of market development and are accurate and effective. When individual cities show signs of overheating, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Fortunately,<b>The \"tools\" for regulating the real estate market are constantly enriching, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a good situation of healthier development.</p>","source":"lsy1597656426531","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Economic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEconomic Daily: Regulation \"patches\" and declines real estate speculators\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">经济日报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-07 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations. This is a continuous deterrent to real estate speculators who imagine that house prices will rise too fast. The regulation of the property market continues to increase.<b>On August 5 alone, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu introduced new regulations on real estate regulation</b>。</p><p><b>Hangzhou has further raised the threshold for purchasing houses</b>。 The new measures are clear. If you have obtained Hangzhou hukou for less than 5 years, you need to pay two years of social security, and you can buy a house in the restricted area; The requirement of \"non-household registration +4-year social security\" makes it more difficult for non-Hangzhou household registration buyers to buy a house. Hangzhou's new regulations raise the threshold for purchasing houses, aiming at cracking down on short-term investors. In addition, Hangzhou also stipulates that the houses with low lottery winning rate of new houses should be sorted according to the number of months of social security payment, which aims to prevent too many buyers from getting together to snap up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5061e381a588a0b72f0c700d4c53c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"699\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time,<b>Chengdu includes donated housing in the total number of donee family housing units to review house purchase qualifications</b>。 In other words, the loophole of avoiding purchase restriction through gifts has been completely blocked.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/251b49b66315bacb1edb0024546db0d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Beijing's regulations are more targeted, directly focusing regulation on cracking down on the qualification of purchasing houses through \"fake divorce\"</b>。 The new regulations clarify that if a husband and wife divorce, and the number of housing units owned by the original family before divorce does not meet the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, neither party may purchase commercial housing within 3 years from the date of divorce. In recent years, in some hot cities, due to the continuous tightening of the purchase restriction policy, some people have racked their brains in order to obtain the qualification to buy houses. In order to avoid the purchase restriction, get the qualification to buy a house again, and enjoy the low down payment and low loan interest rate for buying the first house, some families even choose to divorce and buy a house again. Beijing's new regulations make it more difficult to buy a house through \"fake divorce\", which is conducive to plugging the loopholes of \"fake divorce\" real estate speculation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b84384c49789d1fc5e6ac49f40f066\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Local control measures are still being intensively introduced, constantly \"patching\" and \"plugging loopholes\". The reason is that some cities still face the situation of excessive growth of house prices and land prices and unstable market expectations.<b>The constant regulation measures are a continued deterrent to speculators who still have illusions about the rapid rise in housing prices</b>。</p><p>If the false fire is not extinguished, the regulation of the property market needs to keep high pressure, and more importantly, long-term policies that are continuously and stably implemented are needed, so that buyers can have more stable expectations for the trend of house prices and the timing of house purchase.<b>Intensive regulation measures show that local governments, which are responsible for real estate regulation, are increasing their initiative and enthusiasm in implementing property market regulation</b>。 Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has interviewed local governments many times and included these cities in the list of key cities for real estate market monitoring. For local governments, the positioning of \"housing is for living, not for speculation\" and \"not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy\" should always be adhered to.</p><p>The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a few days ago emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since my country proposed the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate, remarkable results have been achieved in stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, indicating that the measures taken are in line with the laws of market development and are accurate and effective. When individual cities show signs of overheating, it is necessary to decisively strengthen the regulation and supervision of the real estate market. Fortunately,<b>The \"tools\" for regulating the real estate market are constantly enriching, and a series of measures such as land, finance, administrative measures, market rectification, fiscal and taxation are forming a strong synergy</b>。 It is believed that with the establishment and improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the real estate market will usher in a good situation of healthier development.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661\">经济日报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{"09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/479661","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109676905","content_text":"各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。这对幻想房价过快上涨的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n\n楼市调控持续加码。仅8月5日一天，就有杭州、北京、成都三城推出房地产调控新规。\n杭州进一步抬高了购房门槛。新举措明确，取得杭州户口未满5年，需缴纳两年社保，可在限购区域购买一套住房；“非户籍+4年社保”的要求让非杭州户籍购房者买房难度加大。杭州调控新规抬高购房门槛目的在于打击短期投资客。此外，杭州还规定新房摇号中签率低的房源，按照社保缴纳月数依次排序，此举旨在避免过多购房者扎堆抢购。\n\n与此同时，成都将赠与住房计入受赠人家庭住房总套数审核购房资格。也就是说，通过赠与方式规避限购的漏洞被彻底堵住了。\n\n而北京的规定更具针对性，直接将调控重点放在打击通过“假离婚”获取购房资格上。新规明确，夫妻离异的，原家庭在离异前拥有住房套数不符合商品住房限购政策规定的，自离异之日起3年内，任何一方均不得购买商品住房。近年来，在一些热点城市，由于限购政策不断收紧，一些人为了获取购房资格，可谓绞尽脑汁。为避开限购，获得再购房的资格，以及享受购买首套住房的低首付款和低贷款利率，一些家庭甚至选择离婚再购房。北京新规让通过“假离婚”进行购房的难度加大，有利于封堵“假离婚”炒房漏洞。\n\n各地调控措施还在密集出台，不断“打补丁”“堵漏洞”。其原因在于一些城市依然面临房价和地价增长过快、市场预期不稳的状况。不断出台的调控措施对于那些依然对房价过快上涨抱有幻想的炒房客们是持续的威慑。\n虚火不灭，楼市调控就需保持高压，更需持续且稳定执行的长效政策，以便购房者对房价走势、购房时点有更稳定的预期。密集出台的调控措施表明，对房地产调控负有主体责任的地方政府，实施楼市调控的主动性和积极性都在增加。今年以来，住房和城乡建设部已多次约谈地方政府，并将这些城市纳入房地产市场监测重点城市名单。对于地方政府而言，“房住不炒”及“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”的定位应始终坚持。\n日前召开的中央政治局会议强调，要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。我国提出建立房地产长效机制以来，稳地价、稳房价、稳预期取得明显成效，表明采取的措施符合市场发展规律，精准有效。当个别城市出现过热苗头，须果断加大房地产市场调控力度和监管力度。可喜的是，房地产市场调控的“工具”在不断丰富，土地、金融、行政措施、市场整顿、财税等一系列措施，正在形成强大合力。相信随着房地产长效机制建立和完善，房地产市场将迎来更加健康发展的良好局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152958607,"gmtCreate":1625265952809,"gmtModify":1703739508025,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152958607","repostId":"2148808400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148808400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625238620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148808400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-02 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"From the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148808400","media":"脑极体","summary":"特斯拉在科技圈中，是个有话题有热点的黑网红，曝出来的永远都是各种控制系统失控出车祸的新闻，这不最近又闯祸了。近日消息，特斯拉召回部分进口和国产Model 3、国产Model Y电动汽车，共计28552","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>In the science and technology circle, it is a black online celebrity with topics and hot spots. What is exposed is always the news that various control systems are out of control and have car accidents, which has caused trouble again recently. Recently, Tesla recalled some imported and domestic Model 3 and domestic Model Y electric vehicles, totaling 285,520 vehicles. The main reason for the recall is that the vehicle has potential safety hazards of active cruise control system, which can easily cause the driver to incorrectly activate the active cruise function when turning or in D gear, which may lead to a sudden increase in vehicle speed and a collision in extreme cases.</p><p>It looks very scary, after all, it is related to the safety of the car. Tesla's large-scale recall this time is not a way to physically return the car to the factory, but through the technology of remotely upgrading OTA by the car, users can complete the online upgrade without going to the store. Can the seemingly serious security hazard be solved by simply updating the OTA upgrade security package? This recall method, without the follow-up routine safety test of the car factory, always feels uneasy, and even makes people have doubts about the safety of OTA technology itself. So are OTA systems safe at all? To answer this question, start with what is an OTA car.</p><p><b>What exactly is an OTA car?</b></p><p>The full name of OTA is \"Over-The-Air\", that is, Over-The-Air download technology (remote upgrade technology), which is a technology that downloads data packets through wireless networks to update The system and improve terminal functions and services. Our computers and mobile phones also use this OTA technology when updating the system. The purpose of OTA system upgrade is to repair system vulnerabilities, optimize and improve to obtain more functions, improve performance, or improve visual effects. Moreover, this update is to detect, match versions online after networking, download new code locally, and then perform installation, verification and other procedures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The earliest car that OTA technology was applied to was the ModeL S launched by Tesla in 2012. The content update scope included human-computer interaction, autonomous driving, power battery system and other modules. At that time, Tesla could complete key card loopholes, improve cruising range, increase top speed and improve riding comfort through OTA.</p><p>Automotive OTA technology can be divided into SOTA (Software OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Software) and FOTA (Firmware OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Firmware), that is, whole vehicle OTA, according to the difference of upgraded Firmware. Among them, SOTA can only update the software of vehicle application layer, only software such as vehicle machine and infotainment, and has almost no hardware scheduling capability. It is less difficult for car companies to realize it. Most OTA cars that are often publicized on the market only have SOTA technology. FOTA is to upgrade the system layer of the vehicle controller, which affects the power system, battery management and other systems of the vehicle. For example, the software of OS layer can be updated to the underlying systems such as chassis, power and ADAS.</p><p>The main difference between cars equipped with OTA technology and traditional cars is that in terms of performance, cars equipped with OTA technology realize richer functions. Generally speaking, they realize functions from these aspects: they can fix system bugs, update drivers, optimize UI interface, delete problematic apps, upgrade large versions, etc. Most automotive OTAs generally introduce online system updates for entertainment systems, navigation, etc.</p><p>Secondly, when the vehicle encounters software failure or needs to be updated, the traditional car needs to drive the car to a 4S shop to be repaired by a professional computer, which consumes time and energy, while the car equipped with OTA technology can complete the vehicle upgrade and repair the problem without leaving home, saving cost and time. For example, OTA cars can update the ECU software of the car. ECU is an electronic controller of an automobile. Generally speaking, it is the brain of a car. When a new car leaves the factory, its power will not be fully exerted, and it usually leaves some room for improvement. Brushing the ECU means coding the ECU on the basis that the original engine can bear it through some technical means to achieve the purpose of increasing horsepower or torque. Traditional cars need to use the original technology to brush the ECU, and OTA cars can upgrade this ability online.</p><p>From the above description, it can be seen that the functions and convenience of vehicles equipped with OTA technology are exciting and favored. However, because OTA technology itself involves the physical performance of vehicles, such as ECU changes, battery performance changes, and vehicle software experience functions, some reefs may be touched.</p><p><b>OTA cars are a double-edged sword</b></p><p>Judging from the conservative choices of traditional car companies, there is a reason why everyone has not accepted these wonderful experiences according to the order, and there is a reason why they are not so keen to carry them. OTA cars are also double-edged swords.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e367c30b535b8c2a265e8ccd88751a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, because of the mature R&D cycle and stable enterprise structure of traditional automobiles, there are too many newly matched components needed to realize OTA, and the cost of changing the production line and enterprise structure is too high. These new components need to be tested at high cost. Automobile manufacturers will not integrate a bunch of untested \"semi-finished products\" to the market, which will affect the safety of life and property.</p><p>From the analysis of technical reasons, it is mainly related to the structure of traditional cars. Traditional cars are purely mechanical structures, and the power unit is very complicated. The calibration of parameters such as fuel injection, braking system, shift logic, steering ratio and suspension style needs to be debugged and tested by engineers for tens of millions of times to achieve the best safety state before they can leave the factory. Rebuilding OTA becomes unstable for the power output and destroys the balanced parameter setting.</p><p>In addition to the security risks of physical hardware devices, OTA technology is at risk of being attacked by hackers during the remote upgrade process. In the process of downloading the car upgrade package, hackers can use network means to send the virus upgrade package to the vehicle, and then modify the system, remote control, and extort money. If some extreme weather or unstable environmental network is encountered, it will also lead to vulnerabilities in the upgrade package, which will cause the vehicle upgrade to fail.</p><p>We can see that OTA technology needs a lot of security tests in the matching of physical device components itself, as well as the protocol and design process. No matter which link of the link coupling between software and hardware devices has hidden dangers, it is a matter of life and death for the safety of enterprises and vehicles, and it can't be a child's play. Take the recall of Tesla cars as an example. For the operation of ACC adaptive cruise control, the conventional design scheme of car companies is to use button or independent lever operation to turn on the adaptive cruise function. However, Tesla is prone to misoperation when using the adaptive cruise control function, which is a design logic defect. Tesla's solution is to raise the threshold of activating active cruise, and add reminders of its activation and exit to avoid the possibility of accidental touch again.</p><p>If the logic setting of a small function is wrong, it will also bring unrestorable results. For safety issues, it can't be assumed that everyone is cautious and does not have a short circuit in the brain. It is not uncommon to pay attention to news recalls related to vehicles. For software failures, OTA can solve some failures through upgrading, but whether it will bring new problems will also be an urgent problem to be solved. It can be seen that OTA technology is a double-edged sword for car companies, and it is meaningless to discuss whether it is absolutely safe. The intelligent road of OTA cars will not be achieved overnight, and some system flaws will take time to gradually iterate and optimize. After all, no product is perfect at the beginning of design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094f51a71e4d181f644eb1da3c657c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the development trend of the whole market is that car companies are gradually embracing OTA technology, and they will not stop eating due to local restrictions. OTA technology is becoming the standard of smart cars, and its technology penetration rate has increased significantly. According to data, 30% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2020 had OTA capabilities. It will rise to 79% by 2025. According to the data released by Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, the OTA loading rate of new cars in the Chinese market has reached 22.42% in 2020, and it is expected to increase to 35-40% this year.</p><p>Although many car companies work hard to market OTA upgrade technology at the press conference, there are also many people swimming naked. Most car companies still stay at the level of SOTA upgrade, that is, the function upgrade at the level of entertainment interaction. There are only a handful of car companies that can carry out OTA upgrade of the whole vehicle. At present, Tesla, Ideal, XPeng, and other upstarts have OTA capabilities for the whole vehicle. The upgrade of OTA for the whole vehicle is a very obvious sign that smart cars are different from traditional cars. From the perspective of the development history of OTA automobiles, the demand for OTA in the automobile industry is gradually developing from component level, vehicle level and enterprise level to industry ecological level. Traditional car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have actively reformed and restructured their electronic architectures in this big change to realize OTA of the whole vehicle.</p><p><b>The road to the big test in the future of OTA cars</b></p><p>Nowadays, most car companies can achieve OTA of car-machine entertainment system, that is, SOTA, but the real hard nut is the whole vehicle FOTA. Because it involves the electronic architecture, hardware configuration and software self-research capability of vehicle manufacturers on new vehicles. The electronic controller needs to be deeply integrated with the update mechanism of the device, in what state the vehicle is flashed, and how to ensure the stability and safety of the update process. These implementation difficulties should be considered. For example, ECUs (automotive electronic control components) of automobile internal components are hundreds in the architecture of the whole vehicle, which are connected in different communication networks. Each network has different data transmission protocols, which is more complicated. The more controllers are upgraded, the more difficult it is to double the network communication topology protocol. OTA suppliers need to have a clear understanding of the characteristics of each communication line to efficiently realize software upgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5529364f1b506bceb17619a2c75f3112\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of information security, OTA data transmission has the potential risk of being counterfeited, stolen and attacked. During the communication process, it will be held hostage and tampered with by malicious hackers, which may lead to abnormal vehicle operation, privacy leakage, financial and even life safety threats. It is particularly important to safeguard the safety upgrade road of OTA vehicles. OTA automobile manufacturers need to build a well-designed identification key technology architecture, and the verification mechanism and upgrade conditions need to be controlled in both directions to ensure the information security system integrating end and cloud.</p><p>The realization of OTA vehicle functions relies on the development of gateway protocol, network security, continuous development of computing algorithm technology and other capabilities. Although electronic modules and software technology are developed in coordination and applied more and more in the whole vehicle, the technology is still not mature to the stage of widely recognized by the society. The development road of smart cars is long and long, and there is still a lot of room for update and improvement. The optimization of OTA vehicle functions and the differentiation of services need to evolve simultaneously. Fortunately, we will witness the surprises brought by OTA cars together.</p>","source":"lsy1577414888172","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>From the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFrom the Tesla recall, a peek into the true face of OTA car evolution\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">脑极体</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 23:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>In the science and technology circle, it is a black online celebrity with topics and hot spots. What is exposed is always the news that various control systems are out of control and have car accidents, which has caused trouble again recently. Recently, Tesla recalled some imported and domestic Model 3 and domestic Model Y electric vehicles, totaling 285,520 vehicles. The main reason for the recall is that the vehicle has potential safety hazards of active cruise control system, which can easily cause the driver to incorrectly activate the active cruise function when turning or in D gear, which may lead to a sudden increase in vehicle speed and a collision in extreme cases.</p><p>It looks very scary, after all, it is related to the safety of the car. Tesla's large-scale recall this time is not a way to physically return the car to the factory, but through the technology of remotely upgrading OTA by the car, users can complete the online upgrade without going to the store. Can the seemingly serious security hazard be solved by simply updating the OTA upgrade security package? This recall method, without the follow-up routine safety test of the car factory, always feels uneasy, and even makes people have doubts about the safety of OTA technology itself. So are OTA systems safe at all? To answer this question, start with what is an OTA car.</p><p><b>What exactly is an OTA car?</b></p><p>The full name of OTA is \"Over-The-Air\", that is, Over-The-Air download technology (remote upgrade technology), which is a technology that downloads data packets through wireless networks to update The system and improve terminal functions and services. Our computers and mobile phones also use this OTA technology when updating the system. The purpose of OTA system upgrade is to repair system vulnerabilities, optimize and improve to obtain more functions, improve performance, or improve visual effects. Moreover, this update is to detect, match versions online after networking, download new code locally, and then perform installation, verification and other procedures.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The earliest car that OTA technology was applied to was the ModeL S launched by Tesla in 2012. The content update scope included human-computer interaction, autonomous driving, power battery system and other modules. At that time, Tesla could complete key card loopholes, improve cruising range, increase top speed and improve riding comfort through OTA.</p><p>Automotive OTA technology can be divided into SOTA (Software OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Software) and FOTA (Firmware OTA, over-the-air upgrade of Firmware), that is, whole vehicle OTA, according to the difference of upgraded Firmware. Among them, SOTA can only update the software of vehicle application layer, only software such as vehicle machine and infotainment, and has almost no hardware scheduling capability. It is less difficult for car companies to realize it. Most OTA cars that are often publicized on the market only have SOTA technology. FOTA is to upgrade the system layer of the vehicle controller, which affects the power system, battery management and other systems of the vehicle. For example, the software of OS layer can be updated to the underlying systems such as chassis, power and ADAS.</p><p>The main difference between cars equipped with OTA technology and traditional cars is that in terms of performance, cars equipped with OTA technology realize richer functions. Generally speaking, they realize functions from these aspects: they can fix system bugs, update drivers, optimize UI interface, delete problematic apps, upgrade large versions, etc. Most automotive OTAs generally introduce online system updates for entertainment systems, navigation, etc.</p><p>Secondly, when the vehicle encounters software failure or needs to be updated, the traditional car needs to drive the car to a 4S shop to be repaired by a professional computer, which consumes time and energy, while the car equipped with OTA technology can complete the vehicle upgrade and repair the problem without leaving home, saving cost and time. For example, OTA cars can update the ECU software of the car. ECU is an electronic controller of an automobile. Generally speaking, it is the brain of a car. When a new car leaves the factory, its power will not be fully exerted, and it usually leaves some room for improvement. Brushing the ECU means coding the ECU on the basis that the original engine can bear it through some technical means to achieve the purpose of increasing horsepower or torque. Traditional cars need to use the original technology to brush the ECU, and OTA cars can upgrade this ability online.</p><p>From the above description, it can be seen that the functions and convenience of vehicles equipped with OTA technology are exciting and favored. However, because OTA technology itself involves the physical performance of vehicles, such as ECU changes, battery performance changes, and vehicle software experience functions, some reefs may be touched.</p><p><b>OTA cars are a double-edged sword</b></p><p>Judging from the conservative choices of traditional car companies, there is a reason why everyone has not accepted these wonderful experiences according to the order, and there is a reason why they are not so keen to carry them. OTA cars are also double-edged swords.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e367c30b535b8c2a265e8ccd88751a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>First of all, because of the mature R&D cycle and stable enterprise structure of traditional automobiles, there are too many newly matched components needed to realize OTA, and the cost of changing the production line and enterprise structure is too high. These new components need to be tested at high cost. Automobile manufacturers will not integrate a bunch of untested \"semi-finished products\" to the market, which will affect the safety of life and property.</p><p>From the analysis of technical reasons, it is mainly related to the structure of traditional cars. Traditional cars are purely mechanical structures, and the power unit is very complicated. The calibration of parameters such as fuel injection, braking system, shift logic, steering ratio and suspension style needs to be debugged and tested by engineers for tens of millions of times to achieve the best safety state before they can leave the factory. Rebuilding OTA becomes unstable for the power output and destroys the balanced parameter setting.</p><p>In addition to the security risks of physical hardware devices, OTA technology is at risk of being attacked by hackers during the remote upgrade process. In the process of downloading the car upgrade package, hackers can use network means to send the virus upgrade package to the vehicle, and then modify the system, remote control, and extort money. If some extreme weather or unstable environmental network is encountered, it will also lead to vulnerabilities in the upgrade package, which will cause the vehicle upgrade to fail.</p><p>We can see that OTA technology needs a lot of security tests in the matching of physical device components itself, as well as the protocol and design process. No matter which link of the link coupling between software and hardware devices has hidden dangers, it is a matter of life and death for the safety of enterprises and vehicles, and it can't be a child's play. Take the recall of Tesla cars as an example. For the operation of ACC adaptive cruise control, the conventional design scheme of car companies is to use button or independent lever operation to turn on the adaptive cruise function. However, Tesla is prone to misoperation when using the adaptive cruise control function, which is a design logic defect. Tesla's solution is to raise the threshold of activating active cruise, and add reminders of its activation and exit to avoid the possibility of accidental touch again.</p><p>If the logic setting of a small function is wrong, it will also bring unrestorable results. For safety issues, it can't be assumed that everyone is cautious and does not have a short circuit in the brain. It is not uncommon to pay attention to news recalls related to vehicles. For software failures, OTA can solve some failures through upgrading, but whether it will bring new problems will also be an urgent problem to be solved. It can be seen that OTA technology is a double-edged sword for car companies, and it is meaningless to discuss whether it is absolutely safe. The intelligent road of OTA cars will not be achieved overnight, and some system flaws will take time to gradually iterate and optimize. After all, no product is perfect at the beginning of design.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e094f51a71e4d181f644eb1da3c657c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the development trend of the whole market is that car companies are gradually embracing OTA technology, and they will not stop eating due to local restrictions. OTA technology is becoming the standard of smart cars, and its technology penetration rate has increased significantly. According to data, 30% of vehicles sold worldwide in 2020 had OTA capabilities. It will rise to 79% by 2025. According to the data released by Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, the OTA loading rate of new cars in the Chinese market has reached 22.42% in 2020, and it is expected to increase to 35-40% this year.</p><p>Although many car companies work hard to market OTA upgrade technology at the press conference, there are also many people swimming naked. Most car companies still stay at the level of SOTA upgrade, that is, the function upgrade at the level of entertainment interaction. There are only a handful of car companies that can carry out OTA upgrade of the whole vehicle. At present, Tesla, Ideal, XPeng, and other upstarts have OTA capabilities for the whole vehicle. The upgrade of OTA for the whole vehicle is a very obvious sign that smart cars are different from traditional cars. From the perspective of the development history of OTA automobiles, the demand for OTA in the automobile industry is gradually developing from component level, vehicle level and enterprise level to industry ecological level. Traditional car companies such as BMW, Volkswagen and SAIC-GM have actively reformed and restructured their electronic architectures in this big change to realize OTA of the whole vehicle.</p><p><b>The road to the big test in the future of OTA cars</b></p><p>Nowadays, most car companies can achieve OTA of car-machine entertainment system, that is, SOTA, but the real hard nut is the whole vehicle FOTA. Because it involves the electronic architecture, hardware configuration and software self-research capability of vehicle manufacturers on new vehicles. The electronic controller needs to be deeply integrated with the update mechanism of the device, in what state the vehicle is flashed, and how to ensure the stability and safety of the update process. These implementation difficulties should be considered. For example, ECUs (automotive electronic control components) of automobile internal components are hundreds in the architecture of the whole vehicle, which are connected in different communication networks. Each network has different data transmission protocols, which is more complicated. The more controllers are upgraded, the more difficult it is to double the network communication topology protocol. OTA suppliers need to have a clear understanding of the characteristics of each communication line to efficiently realize software upgrade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5529364f1b506bceb17619a2c75f3112\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of information security, OTA data transmission has the potential risk of being counterfeited, stolen and attacked. During the communication process, it will be held hostage and tampered with by malicious hackers, which may lead to abnormal vehicle operation, privacy leakage, financial and even life safety threats. It is particularly important to safeguard the safety upgrade road of OTA vehicles. OTA automobile manufacturers need to build a well-designed identification key technology architecture, and the verification mechanism and upgrade conditions need to be controlled in both directions to ensure the information security system integrating end and cloud.</p><p>The realization of OTA vehicle functions relies on the development of gateway protocol, network security, continuous development of computing algorithm technology and other capabilities. Although electronic modules and software technology are developed in coordination and applied more and more in the whole vehicle, the technology is still not mature to the stage of widely recognized by the society. The development road of smart cars is long and long, and there is still a lot of room for update and improvement. The optimization of OTA vehicle functions and the differentiation of services need to evolve simultaneously. Fortunately, we will witness the surprises brought by OTA cars together.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_39xXiiqsAP9SDbQjbWLA\">脑极体</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404652f159ffcb9982e091e353fdade0","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_39xXiiqsAP9SDbQjbWLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148808400","content_text":"特斯拉在科技圈中，是个有话题有热点的黑网红，曝出来的永远都是各种控制系统失控出车祸的新闻，这不最近又闯祸了。近日消息，特斯拉召回部分进口和国产Model 3、国产Model Y电动汽车，共计285520辆，召回的主要原因是车辆存在主动巡航控制系统安全隐患，易造成驾驶员在转弯或者在D挡位情形误激活主动巡航功能，可能出现车辆速度突增情形，极端情况下可能导致车辆发生碰撞。\n看起来非常吓人，毕竟是关系到用车安全的问题。特斯拉此次的大规模召回不是物理上将车返厂返点的方式，而是通过汽车远程升级OTA的技术，用户无需到店即可完成在线升级。看似很严重的安全隐患仅仅通过OTA升级安全包的更新就可以解决问题吗？这种召回方式，没有车厂后续的常规安全测试，总觉得让人不安，甚至也会让人对OTA技术本身是否安全有疑虑。那么OTA系统到底安全吗？想要回答这个问题，先从什么是OTA汽车聊起。\nOTA汽车到底是什么？\nOTA的全称“Over-The-Air”，即空中下载技术（远程升级技术），通过无线网络下载数据包从而对系统更新进而改善终端功能和服务的技术。我们的电脑和手机进行系统更新的时候也是用的这个OTA技术。OTA进行系统升级的目的就是修复系统漏洞、优化改善以获得更多的功能、性能提升，又或者是视觉效果的改善，且这种更新是通过联网后在线检测、匹配版本、下载新的代码到本地进而执行安装、校验等程序。\n\nOTA技术最早应用于的汽车就是在2012年特斯拉推出的ModeL S上，内容更新范围包括人机交互、自动驾驶、动力电池系统等模块，当时特斯拉可以通过OTA完成钥匙卡漏洞、提升续航里程、提高最高速度、提升乘坐舒适度等。\n汽车OTA技术根据升级固件的差异，可以分为SOTA（Software OTA，软件空中升级）和FOTA（Firmware OTA，固件空中升级），即整车OTA。其中，SOTA只能对车辆应用层软件更新，仅限车机、信息娱乐等软件，几乎没有硬件调度的能力，车企实现难度较小，市面上经常看到宣传的OTA汽车大多数都是仅具有SOTA技术。而FOTA是对车辆控制器的系统层进行升级，影响的是车的动力系统、电池管理等系统，比如可以对底盘、动力、ADAS等底层系统进行OS层的软件更新。\n搭载OTA技术的汽车跟传统的汽车主要的区别是：在性能方面，搭载OTA技术的汽车车载实现的功能更丰富，总的来说是从这几方面实现功能：可以修复系统bug，更新驱动，优化UI界面，删除问题APP，大版本升级等。大多数车用OTA一般是针对娱乐系统、导航等推出在线系统更新。\n其次是车辆遇到软件故障或是需要更新时，传统汽车需要将车开到4S店利用专业电脑修复，耗费的时间精力，而搭载OTA技术的汽车可以足不出户就完成车辆升级，修复问题，节省成本与时间。比如OTA汽车可以对汽车的ECU软件进行更新。ECU是汽车电子控制器，通俗的来说就是汽车的大脑，新车出厂时动力不会完全发挥出来，通常会留下一部分可提升的空间，刷ECU就是通过一些技术手段，在原厂发动机能承受的基础上对ECU进行编码，达到提升马力或扭矩的目的，传统汽车想要刷ECU需要借助原厂的技术，OTA汽车可以在线升级这种能力。\n从上述的描述可以看出搭载OTA技术的车辆实现的功能以及便捷性让人心动与青睐，但是因为OTA技术本身涉及到对车辆物理性能比如ECU改变、电池性能改变、以及车辆软件体验功能的改变，在这其中，也有一些暗礁可能被触及。\nOTA汽车是把双刃剑\n从传统车企的保守选择来看，大家没有照单全收这些美好的体验，没有那么热衷搭载也是有原因的，OTA汽车也是把双刃剑。\n\n首先是因为传统汽车成熟的研发周期和稳定的企业架构，想要实现OTA需要新匹配的元器件太多，产线与企业结构的改变成本太大，这些新的元器件都需要经过高成本的测试，汽车厂商不会将一堆未经测试考验的“半成品”集成后推向市场，影响生命财产安全。\n从技术原因分析来看，主要是跟传统汽车的结构有关。传统的汽车都是纯机械结构，动力单元非常复杂，喷油量、刹车系统、换挡逻辑、转向比、悬挂风格等参数关系标定，需要被工程师千万次调试测试到最佳安全状态才能出厂。而重新搭建OTA对于动力输出来说变得不稳定，破坏平衡的参数设定。\n除了因为物理硬件设备的安全隐患外，OTA技术在远程升级过程中，有被黑客攻击的风险。汽车在下载升级包的过程中，黑客可以利用网络手段将被病毒升级包发送给车辆，进而修改系统、远程控制、勒索钱财。如果遇到一些极端天气或者环境网络不稳定的情况，也会导致升级包出现漏洞，进而使得车辆升级失败。\n我们可以看到OTA技术在物理设备元器件本身的匹配以及协议和设计过程需要经过大量的安全测试，软硬件设备之间的链接耦合无论是哪个环节存在隐患，对于企业和车辆的安全都是生死存亡的问题，不能儿戏。拿特斯拉汽车此次召回事件来说，ACC自适应巡航控制的操作,常规的车企设计方案是采用按键式或者独立拨杆的操作开启自适应巡航功能，但是特斯拉在使用自适应巡航控制功能的时候容易有误操作，这是一个设计逻辑上的缺陷，特斯拉的解决方案是提升激活主动巡航的阈值，加入了其激活和退出的提醒，避免误触的可能再发生。\n小小的一个功能逻辑设定有误的话，也会带来万劫不复的结果，对于安全问题，不能假设所有人都是小心谨慎没有大脑短路的时候。如果关注车辆相关的的新闻召回事件屡见不鲜，对于软件故障，OTA可以通过升级可以解决部分故障，但是是否还会带来新的问题，也会是个亟待解决的问题。可以看到OTA技术对于车企而言，是把双刃剑，讨论其是否绝对安全也没有意义，OTA汽车的智能化之路，不会一蹴而就，一些系统的瑕疵需要时间去逐渐迭代优化，毕竟没有任何产品在设计之初就是完美的。\n\n目前整个市场发展的趋势就是车企逐渐在拥抱OTA技术，不会因为局部的限制因噎废食。OTA技术正成为智能汽车标配， 其技术渗透率提升尤为明显。有数据显示，在2020年全球售出的车辆中，有30％具有OTA功能。到2025年，该比例将上升至79％。而根据高工智能汽车研究院发布的数据，2020年中国市场新车OTA搭载率已经达到22.42%，预计今年将提升至35-40%。\n尽管不少车企在发布会卖力营销OTA升级技术，但裸泳的人也不少，大多数车企还是停留在SOTA升级层面，也就是娱乐互动层面的功能升级，能够进行整车OTA升级的车企屈指可数。目前有着整车OTA能力的是特斯拉、理想、小鹏、等新贵。而面向于整车OTA升级，才是智能汽车区别于传统汽车的一个非常显著的标志。从OTA汽车的发展历程上来看，汽车行业对于OTA的需求是逐步由零部件级、整车级、企业级发展到行业生态级。宝马、大众、上汽通用等传统车企在这个大的变革中积极改革进行电子架构重构，以实现整车OTA。\nOTA汽车未来的大考之路\n现在大部分车企都能做到车机娱乐系统的OTA，也就是 SOTA，但真正难啃的硬骨头是整车FOTA。因为其涉及整车制造商在新车上的电子架构、硬件配置以及软件自研能力。电子控制器需要与设备的更新机制进行深度整合，车辆在什么状态下进行刷写，如何确保确保更新过程的稳定性与安全性，这些实现上的难点都是要考虑的。比如汽车内部件的ECU（汽车电子控制元器件），它们在整车的架构中数量为几百个，连接在不同的通讯网络中，每条网络的数据传输协议不同，比较复杂，升级的控制器越多考量的网络通讯拓扑结构协议翻番难度上升，需要OTA供应商对每条通讯线路的特点有清晰的认知才能高效地实现软件升级。\n\n在信息安全方面，OTA数据传输的过程中，有被仿冒、窃取、攻击的潜在风险，在通讯过程中会被不怀好意的黑客挟持与篡改，可能导致车辆运行异常、隐私泄露、财务甚至是生命安全受到威胁。保障OTA汽车的安全升级之路尤为重要。OTA汽车厂商需要搭建设计完善的标识秘钥技术架构，验证机制与升级条件的限定需要双向把控，才能保障端云一体的信息安全体系。\nOTA汽车功能的实现背后依托网关协议、网络安全、算力算法技术持续开发等多方面能力发展，虽然电子模块与软件技术协同发展，在整车上应用的越来越多，但技术还是没有成熟到社会广泛认同的阶段，智能汽车的发展之路长途漫漫，更新和改善的空间还是很大，OTA汽车功能上的优化，服务的差异化需要同步进化，幸运的是我们会一起见证OTA汽车带来的惊喜。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":437597964378304,"gmtCreate":1747809439877,"gmtModify":1747809441879,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VOO\">$Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> ","text":"$Vanguard标普500ETF(VOO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/437597964378304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150517724,"gmtCreate":1624921505068,"gmtModify":1703847769587,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150517724","repostId":"2146002531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128080212,"gmtCreate":1624495318936,"gmtModify":1703838254342,"author":{"id":"3568614602734225","authorId":"3568614602734225","name":"洞幽烛远","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e72968722642d797ced5fcb63f2fec1","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568614602734225","idStr":"3568614602734225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks.","listText":"Thanks.","text":"Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128080212","repostId":"2145086880","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145086880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624415733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145086880?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 10:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation trading\" can take a break","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145086880","media":"首席经济学家论坛","summary":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的","content":"<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and let prices continue to rise, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposing traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>","source":"lsy1583127396478","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation trading\" can take a break</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation trading\" can take a break\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">首席经济学家论坛</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While analysts and media comrades are still discussing \"inflation\" and \"stagflation\", the market is already trading deflation:</p><p><b>1. Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has dropped significantly, and the yield of 30-year bonds has dropped even more. The market yield has flattened, which has caused the financial stocks of U.S. stocks to begin to fall, because the flattened yield curve is obviously not conducive to financial stocks;</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41e5ab0e766c9ad9f0ba20a3b94394e\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The inflation expectation fitted by the difference between the nominal interest rate and the real interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds also dropped significantly after the interest rate meeting, dropping by about 20 BP from the high of nearly 2.5% in June to now</b>；</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09b9efa46c7de85be5df95df824a853b\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectation. When the nominal interest rate falls, gold continues to fall, and the price of gold has always been inversely related to the real interest rate in Treasury Bond, USA</b>That is to say, the real interest rate actually rises when the nominal interest rate falls, which only shows that the deflation expectation is indeed strong;</p><p><b>4. The expectation of unilateral rise in commodities seems to no longer exist</b>In the case of copper, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange rose by 24,925 tonnes, a 17% jump. After a circle of research, it is said that because the supply and demand of copper itself are not so good, the reason why the copper price is strong largely depends on the loose liquidity support. Under the expectation of price increase, the industrial chain buys up rather than down, and the inventory is implicit. However, now the expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike is ahead of schedule, and the State Reserve has also sold its inventory directly to downstream enterprises. When the expectation of price increase is gone, the hidden inventory of hoarding goods is directly explicit, and the expectation of price increase has been shaken.</p><p><b>5. Judging from the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, the market style preference of U.S. stocks has also changed significantly, and the Nasdaq obviously outperformed the Dow</b>Growth performance is significantly stronger than cycle and value.</p><p>So, the question arises, what exactly happened that made the market's expectations shift so quickly?</p><p>To answer this question, first briefly analyze how inflation came about.</p><p><b>First, the origin of inflation</b></p><p>There is a fundamental difference between this round of quantitative easing in the United States and the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>This time, the United States directly distributed the bills released by the Federal Reserve to residents through fiscal stimulus. In the 2008 financial crisis, quantitative easing gave the bills to financial institutions to help them deal with bad debts and illiquid assets.</p><p>Giving banknotes to residents can directly create aggregate demand, while giving them to financial institutions can only create aggregate demand when entities have financing needs.</p><p>Because the demand stimulation mode of helicopter money is separated from the traditional historical experience, the speed of production adjustment is slower than the speed of demand expansion, which leads to supply chain bottlenecks and shortage of commodities at the production end.</p><p>Looking at the data of inventory-to-sales ratio in the United States can explain some problems. The seasonally adjusted inventory-to-sales ratio of retailers is the lowest, only 1.07, and the inventory of wholesalers is also relatively low, with 1.22. However, the inventory-to-sales ratio of manufacturers is as high as 1.48, which is still at a high level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ebb5dc27d1a4d9b56b06e650782960\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What does that mean?</p><p>This shows that after the benefits were paid in the United States, the consumer demand of American people to buy and buy was too strong, resulting in retailers being bought out of stock. However, because the labor force is still receiving unemployment benefits, they are unwilling to come back to work, and those who come back to work are mainly in the service industry, not the manufacturing industry. In addition, the raw materials are expensive and the transportation capacity is tight, so the production has not recovered.</p><p>The monthly retail data of the United States in May was $620.2 billion, while the monthly retail data of the United States in 2019 was just over $500 billion. Looking at the industrial production index, it was less than 100 in May, but about 102 in 2019.</p><p>In other words, consumption is well above pre-pandemic, but production has not recovered to pre-pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd06a9419c601db0a7cd0d4b4b66049\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Originally, import suppliers in the United States had more choices, such as forcing China's industrial chain to move to places with lower labor costs (India and Southeast Asia) by attacking China's textile industry and pushing up upstream costs. Since consumer demand is good and production is insufficient, how should the gap between supply and demand be met? We can only rely on imports.</p><p>Unexpectedly, the pandemic that emerged in India in April disrupted this plan. The epidemic not only appeared in India, but also rapidly spread to Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan Province and Japan, which are mostly production bases in the world. As a result, China's industrial chain not only did not move outside, but also further gathered production resources in China. Recently, FDI has accelerated its inflow into China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c45b93dd234e782b6886c74a10046\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the gap of retail inventory in the United States is rigid, and countries and regions with production capacity are also shut down due to the new round of epidemic, the gap of consumption and inventory in the United States can basically only be balanced by China's imports.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6894c423cdb48c2a83c6b2eb33a26\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Immovable orders</b></p><p>Now come back to the domestic.</p><p>Since China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, subsidized enterprises through credit during the epidemic, and preserved enterprises and production capacity. Therefore, from last year to now, China has always been the backbone of stabilizing global inflation. The global supply system is highly dependent on China's production. The shipping cost has increased by more than 4-5 times compared with that before the epidemic, and the stocks related to shipping have also increased several times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2d563c458f06a2b983ad41fdf8636d9\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, looking at the current economic data, the new export orders of PMI in May were only 48.3%, which was below the withering line. Compared with the previous value of 50.4%, there was an obvious downward trend. The export growth rate in May was 27.9%, which was not as good as the previous value of 32.3%. Now the market is beginning to discuss the peak of external demand.</p><p>Logically and in fact, enterprises should not be short of orders, because at present, overseas can only rely on China's production capacity.</p><p>We tend to think that the decline in new export orders is not because enterprises have no orders, but because enterprises dare not take orders easily.</p><p>Why are businesses afraid to take orders? The main reason is that the upstream commodities go up too fast, and they lose money when they take orders.</p><p>There are three main reasons for the rapid rise in upstream commodity prices:</p><p>1. The demand of the United States can be printed by printing money. Most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The downward trend of the US dollar and the expansion of demand itself are good for upstream commodities.</p><p>2. The upstream supply can't be opened, and some of them can't resume work because of the lack of vaccines in emerging markets. The spread of the epidemic in India has aggravated this trend. For example, the tight semiconductor supply chain, the supply of scrap copper and some rare minerals have been disturbed; Some are because the unions are strong; Others feel that the demand is not sustainable, and the short-term demand is only printed by the United States, which is not sustainable. Now, it will be in the next three years from the expansion of production capacity to the release of output, but if there is no such good demand in the future, it will lose money, so it is better to maintain the oligopoly while the price rises now and earn enough cash flow at the moment.</p><p>3. For domestic commodities with pricing power, due to the \"double carbon\" goal, safety production and other demands, the market expects to reduce production, resulting in hidden inventory. Moreover, the downstream will also expect that the supply will be in short supply in the future, so they can only stock up in panic at present, which intensifies the expected upstream price increase.</p><p>From the data point of view, in May, PPI was as high as 9% year-on-year, while CPI was only 1.3% year-on-year. Both the price of PMI raw materials minus the price of finished products and the price of PPI raw materials minus the price of PPI processing reached a record high year-on-year, which shows that the downstream manufacturing links are constantly enduring upstream inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf605a70afe88045b7636a1a9c9e0b19\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, everything has to have a degree. When the contradiction of upstream rise accumulates to a certain extent, enterprises will naturally dare not accept orders if they \"increase income but not profit\" and \"are thankless\" for a long time, because the more orders they receive, the more money they will lose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e11053c2e74d92908dd4a04aa0cfcda\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Mysterious interest rate meeting</b></p><p>The most interesting point of the June interest rate meeting is that Taper, which the market pays attention to, basically doesn't mention much, and the statement is very vague. It only says that the premise of Taper opening is to achieve the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy, and the standard of \"substantial progress\" is determined by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>However, what surprised the market most at the June interest rate meeting was that rate hike expected ahead of schedule, thinking that the number of members who should be rate hike in 2022 rose from 4 to 7, and the number of members who should be rate hike in 2023 rose from 7 to 13.</p><p>On the whole, the June interest rate meeting is to guide the rate hike to advance its expectations, and to \"shut up\" Taper, which the market is most concerned about.</p><p>The point is, what is the Fed's intention in doing this?</p><p>After the interest rate meeting, the market took the combination of the sharp rise of the US dollar and the decline of the yield of 10-year US bonds. This trend combination is very confusing.</p><p>Let's first guess why the Fed kept quiet about Taper.</p><p>In the first quarter, because the market formed an optimistic expectation that the U.S. economy would recover rapidly after effective vaccination, and the market's expectation of inflation was very high at that time, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose very rapidly in the first quarter, and it rose from less than 1% to a high of 1.78% at the end of March in a few trading days.</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve believes that the market expectations have gone too far ahead, constantly emphasizing that inflation is temporary and does not cater to the market expectations. In the second quarter, the expansion of the Federal Reserve also continued. Under the background of huge fiscal deposits, all kinds of short-term interest rates were pressed to around 0.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54f3462ee6ddf13338f6b301b11d78b\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>There is a reason why the Fed did this in the second quarter. In the first quarter, although vaccines were being vaccinated rapidly and the U.S. economy benefited from vaccines, it was indeed recovering rapidly, but both the number of jobs and the rate of salary growth were far from reaching the pre-epidemic level.</p><p>Withdrawal from easing means that the finance will decline, but there is still high uncertainty about whether the economic environment in the first quarter can absorb the labor force returned due to welfare withdrawal.</p><p>But by the end of the second quarter, it was clear that the economy had become overheated and the labor market was in short supply. Wages are rising at the same time as the number of job openings is rising.</p><p>Recently, the number of job openings in the United States has reached 9.29 million, compared with about 7 million in 2019, and the job vacancy rate is as high as 6%, while the average level in 2019 is about 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fb48b1ad455cf8f930a98f6abb2752\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>By this time, due to the overheating of the job market, the basis for the withdrawal of unemployment benefits has been initially established. What is holding back employment recovery is no longer a weak economic recovery, but a slow recovery in the labor market because the benefits even exceed the wages that many employers can pay. So starting in June, some states have started eliminating the $300-a-week unemployment benefit.</p><p>We believe that Taper \"keeps his mouth shut\", and the goal of \"substantial progress\" in the economy that the Federal Reserve wants, with high probability, refers to the obvious increase in employment data after the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, which can verify that the U.S. economy is completely on the right track.</p><p>This is why the interest rate meeting did not raise the unemployment rate target, and it remained at the unemployment level of 4.5% after the continuous new jobs were lower than expected, because the Federal Reserve expects that after the unemployment benefits are withdrawn, the labor force will gradually return to the job market.</p><p>In short, the target conditions of \"substantial progress\" desired by the Fed can only be met after there is really a significant improvement in job creation. Only then will the Fed seriously consider whether the size of the quantitative easing should be reduced.</p><p>Let's review how inflation in the United States formed.</p><p>The first is that the money printing machine gives money to residents, which leads consumers to \"buy, buy, buy\"; The second is that local production has not been repaired, because the employment force has not returned, logistics costs have risen, and the supply of upstream raw materials is scarce (such as the lack of cores for cars and the lack of timber for building houses); The third is that raw material prices, freight and other costs have risen too fast, and China can't accept new export orders.</p><p>Against the background of rapid demand expansion and relatively tight supply, we see that U.S. inflation is characterized by \"infinite rise\". Because the supply simply can't match the speed of demand expansion, the residential department can't buy goods even if it wants to buy them, so the price can only jump.</p><p>This is very similar to the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales data have been declining since the beginning of this year, but this is not because demand has weakened, because the selling price of existing home sales is still accelerating up, and at the same time, existing home inventory in the United States is being consumed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95300d19a8a8ee5d831b8f969ae8b639\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In order to alleviate inflationary pressure, the logic is actually very simple. Either suppress demand, such as paying less welfare, or guide employment to return to various positions and start production. When welfare goes down, demand weakens, and production increases, inflationary pressures naturally go down.</p><p>The key now is whether the follow-up employment can go up, which in turn depends on:</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>After immunization, the strength of the recovery of the service industry in the United States, if the production and supply of oil prices are relatively stable, the rise and fall of oil prices can be used as a high-frequency agent indicator of service industry repair;</p><p>2. Have the small and medium-sized enterprises and supply chains in the United States been damaged in the medium and long term due to the epidemic? If so, the supply chain and production links in the United States can't absorb many jobs, so they can't repair production.</p><p>These macroeconomic variables, at least from the present point of view, are still uncertain. The answer will gradually be clear until the unemployment benefits are withdrawn and whether employment can increase.</p><p>Therefore, before the employment volume fills the gap, the Federal Reserve will not be busy mentioning Taper, and it will not quit paying benefits to the residential sector so soon. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Labor, 70% of unemployment benefits will not be withdrawn until the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>If the United States can't neither curb demand nor expand production in the short term, there is only one way to alleviate inflation: reduce upstream costs, devalue the exchange rates of producing countries, and replenish retail inventories by expanding imports to producing countries.</p><p>This is why the Federal Reserve dares not mention Taper, because there is still some uncertainty about whether the job market can be repaired, but the Federal Reserve is willing to advance the market's rate hike expectation and pull the US dollar up, because this can not only depreciate the exchange rate of producing countries and then expand imports, but also suppress the price of upstream commodities, give the country and producing countries some production profits, and facilitate the reconstruction of retail inventory.</p><p><b>Market implications</b></p><p>At this point in the story, we think the logic of the follow-up market is very clear.</p><p>At least in the short term, there is no need to pay too much attention to whether the Fed will Taper, because this will only happen after the confirmation that the employment gap will be repaired, and then it will become the focus of market pricing.</p><p>Nowadays, the inflation or stagflation that everyone is hot about is essentially the result of a sharp mismatch between supply and demand. When the elasticity of supply is weak to a certain extent, inflation appears in the form of \"infinite rise\".</p><p>Therefore, the main contradiction of the global economy is no longer to continue to issue money to raise the aggregate demand and let prices continue to rise, but to repair the fragile supply chain and ease the expectation of inflation through supply repair.</p><p>In other words, behind market pricing deflation is not necessarily the weakening of pricing economic demand, but more likely the short-term repair of pricing supply chain bottlenecks.</p><p>If the United States is unable to rebuild its own inventories through rebalancing demand-production in the short term, the problem of solving supply chain bottlenecks needs to be solved by expanding imports.</p><p>From this perspective, suppressing the price of upstream commodities will become the consensus of China and the United States at this stage because the cost of production and supply chain rises too fast to accept orders.</p><p>At present, the focus of the wrestling between the two countries will not be \"peppering noodles\", but may be concentrated in the field of scientific and technological innovation that will form a \"technological generation difference\".</p><p>Therefore, at present, it is best not to expect that commodity prices will rise unilaterally. Gambling on the high probability of commodity prices continuing to rise unilaterally will lead to losses.</p><p>In fact, the support of commodity price increases is not entirely due to how strong the current demand is, and the expectation that demand exceeds supply has played a great role.</p><p>The low inventory of many commodities is not necessarily caused by the current strong demand and insufficient supply, but because there is an expectation that the future demand will be much greater than the supply, which leads to downstream panic hoarding, superimposing traders' inventory hoarding, and rising prices lead to inventory recession, which further drives the price rise.</p><p>Once the expectation of a unilateral price rise is gone, the hidden inventory runs out.</p><p>If the United States needs to alleviate the contradiction between insufficient inventory of consumer goods through imports and the depreciation of RMB exchange rate, it means that China's exports will remain high in the third quarter.</p><p>This round of domestic pressure on real estate and infrastructure, whether industrial production or manufacturing investment, is basically driven by exports. As long as exports can remain high, it means that the economic fundamentals in the third quarter are at least not weak.</p><p>As long as there are fundamentals, the risk appetite of stocks can be guaranteed, and if the upstream price increase can really be controlled, the profit margin of the middle and lower reaches will come out. You can pay attention to the opportunities of the growth sector, especially the policy premium of independent and controllable underlying core components and materials.</p><p>Of course, the \"inflation trade\" can take a break.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257\">首席经济学家论坛</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://m.cls.cn/depth/773257","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145086880","content_text":"当分析师和媒体同志们还在讨论“通胀”和“滞胀”的时候，市场已经开始在交易通缩了：\n1、近期10年期美债收益率明显下行，而且30年期的下行更多，市场收益率平坦化了，弄得美股的金融股开始下跌，因为平坦化的收益率曲线显然不利于金融股；\n\n2、通过10年期美债的名义利率和实际利率差值拟合的通胀预期在议息会议后也明显下行，从6月近2.5%的高点到现在下降了大概20多个BP；\n\n3、实际利率等于名义利率减去通胀预期，当名义利率下降的时候，黄金仍然在继续下跌，而黄金价格历来与美国国债的实际利率有反向关系，也就是说，实际利率在名义利率下降的时候竟然是上升的，这只能说明通缩预期确实比较强；\n4、大宗商品单边上涨预期似乎已不存在了，以铜为例，伦敦金属交易所的铜库存增加了24925吨，猛增17％。调研了一圈下来，说是因为铜的供需本身没那么好，铜价之所以强势很大程度上依赖的是宽松的流动性支撑，在涨价预期下，产业链买涨不买跌，库存都隐性化了，但现在美联储加息预期提前了，国储也抛售库存直接给下游企业了，当涨价预期没有了之后，囤货的隐性库存直接显性化了，涨价预期已经被动摇了。\n5、从近期美股市场的表现来看，美股的市场风格偏好也发生了明显的变化，纳指明显跑赢道指，成长的表现要显著强于周期和价值。\n那么，问题来了，究竟发生了什么让市场的预期转变得如此迅速？\n为了解答这一问题，先简要分析一下通胀是怎么来的。\n一、通胀的由来\n这一轮美国的量化宽松和2008年金融危机是有本质区别的。\n这一次美国直接通过财政刺激，把美联储放出去的票子发到了居民手里，而2008年金融危机的量化宽松是把钞票给到金融机构那，帮助金融机构处理坏账和非流动性资产。\n把钞票给到居民手里，直接可以创造总需求，而给到金融机构手里，还要等实体有融资需求了，才能创造总需求。\n由于直升机撒钱的需求刺激模式脱离了传统的历史经验，生产调整的速度慢于需求扩张的速度，这就导致生产端有供应链瓶颈和商品的供不应求。\n看美国库销比的数据就可以说明一些问题。经季调的零售商库销比是最低的，只有1.07，批发商库存也比较低，有1.22，然而制造商库销比却高达1.48，还处于高位。\n\n这说明什么呢？\n这说明美国发了福利后，美国人民买买买的消费需求太旺盛了，导致零售商那都被买得没货了，但由于劳动力还在领失业救济，不愿意回来工作，回来工作的也主要在服务业，而不是制造业，再加上原材料贵、运力紧张，所以生产是没有怎么恢复的。\n美国5月单月的零售数据是6202亿美元，而2019年美国单月的零售数据也就5000亿美元出头，再看工业生产指数，5月不到100，但2019年有102左右。\n换句话说，消费已远在疫情前以上，但生产还没有恢复到疫情前。\n\n本来美国的进口供应商有更多的选择，比如通过对中国的纺织业发难和推高上游成本，倒逼中国产业链外迁到人力成本更低的地方（印度、东南亚）。既然消费需求好，生产又不足，那供需缺口应该怎么满足呢？也只能靠进口了。\n没想到的是，4月印度出现的疫情搅乱了这一计划。疫情不仅出现在了印度，还快速扩散到了东南亚国家、台湾地区和日本，这些地方也多为世界的生产基地，结果导致中国产业链不仅没有外迁，反而使生产资源进一步向国内集聚， FDI近期是加速往国内流入的。\n\n由于美国的零售品库存的缺口是刚性的，拥有生产能力的国家和地区也因新一轮疫情停摆，美国消费和库存的缺口基本上只能靠中国的进口来平衡了。\n\n二、接不动的订单\n现在回来看看国内。\n由于中国率先控制了疫情，疫情期间通过信贷补贴了企业，保住了企业和生产能力，所以从去年到现在，中国一直都是稳定全球通胀的中坚力量，全球的供应体系高度依赖于中国的生产，海运费用比疫情前涨了4-5倍都不止，和海运相关的个股涨幅也有好几倍。\n\n但看现在的经济数据，5月PMI新出口订单只有48.3%，到了枯荣线的下面，相比前值50.4%，有较为明显的下行。5月的出口增速为27.9%，也不如前值的32.3%，现在市场关于外需的见顶讨论开始多了起来。\n从逻辑和事实上来讲，企业应该是不会缺订单的，因为当下海外只能依赖中国的产能。\n我们倾向于认为出口新订单的下降不是因为企业没有订单，而是企业不敢轻易接订单了。\n企业为什么不敢接订单呢？主要原因是上游大宗商品上得太快了，接单就亏钱。\n上游大宗商品价格涨得快的原因主要有三个：\n1、美国的需求可以靠印钞票印出来，大多数有色金属是美元定价，美元下行和需求扩张本身就利好上游大宗商品。\n2、上游供给打不开，有的是因为新兴市场缺少疫苗导致无法复工，印度疫情扩散加剧了这一趋势，比如半导体供应链紧张、废铜还有一些稀有矿的供给都受到了扰动；有的是因为工会强势；还有的是觉得需求没有持续性，短期需求好只是美国印出来的，没有可持续性，现在扩产能到产出释放都是未来三年以后的事了，但未来如果没有这么好的需求，就会赔钱，所以不如趁现在价格涨维持寡头垄断，当下赚足现金流就好。\n3、国内有定价权的大宗商品，因“双碳”目标、安全生产等诉求，市场有减产预期，导致库存隐性化，而且下游也会预期未来供应会紧缺，只能当下恐慌性备货，使得上游价格上涨预期加剧。\n从数据来看，5月PPI同比高达9%，而CPI同比仅为1.3%，无论是PMI原材料价格减去产成品价格还是PPI原材料价格同比减去PPI加工价格同比都创下了历史新高，这说明下游生产制造环节在不断忍受着上游的通胀。\n\n但凡事都得有个度，当上游上涨的矛盾积累到了一定程度后，企业长期“增收不增利”、“吃力不讨好”，自然就不敢接订单了，因为订单接得越多，反而会越赔钱。\n\n三、谜一样的议息会议\n6月议息会议最有趣的一点就是市场关注的Taper基本上没怎么提，表述很模糊，只说Taper开启的前提是达到经济取得“实质性进展”的目标，而“实质性进展”的标准是由美联储决定的。\n但6月议息会议最让市场意外的一点是加息预期提前了，认为2022年应当加息的成员从4人上升到了7人，2023年应当加息的成员从7人上升到了13人。\n综合来看，6月议息会议是引导加息预期提前，并且对市场最关注的Taper“闭口不提”。\n关键是，美联储这么做的意图是什么？\n议息会议后，市场走的是美元大幅上涨而10年美债收益率下行的组合，这种走势组合让人很疑惑。\n先来猜测一下，美联储为什么对Taper闭口不提。\n一季度的时候，因为市场形成了疫苗有效接种后美国经济会快速复苏的乐观预期，当时市场对通胀的预期很靠前，所以一季度10年期美债收益率上升的速度非常快，没几个交易日就从不到1%的收益率上行到了3月末1.78%的高点。\n但美联储认为市场预期走得太前了，不断在强调通胀是暂时的，没有去迎合市场预期。二季度美联储的扩表也在继续，在财政存款巨量投放的背景下，各类短端利率都压到了0附近。\n\n二季度美联储这么做也是有原因的。一季度的时候，疫苗虽然在快速接种，美国经济受益于疫苗，确实是在快速修复，但无论是就业数量还是薪资增速，都远没有达到疫情前的水平。\n退出宽松就意味着财政要退坡，但一季度的经济环境是否能吸纳因福利退出而回流的劳动力大军，还是有很高的不确定性的。\n但到了二季度末，很明显可以看到经济已经有了过热的倾向，劳动力市场开始供不应求。工资上涨的同时职位空缺人数也在不断上升。\n近期美国就业职位空缺人数已高达929万人，而2019年差不多就700万人左右，职位空缺率高达6%，而2019年的平均水平也就在4%左右的水平。\n\n到了这个时候，由于就业市场过热，已初步具备失业救济退出的基础。阻碍就业复苏的不再是经济复苏不给力，而是救济金甚至超过了许多雇主可以支付的工资，才导致劳动力市场复苏缓慢。所以从6月开始，已经有部分州开始取消每周300美元的失业救济金。\n我们认为Taper“闭口不提”，美联储要的经济“实质性进展”的目标，大概率指的是失业救济退出以后，就业数据要出现明显的新增，这才能验证美国经济已经彻底走上正轨。\n这也是为什么此次议息会议并没有上调失业率目标，在持续的新增就业低于预期之后还维持在4.5%的失业水平，因为美联储预期失业救济退出之后，劳动力就会逐步回归到就业市场。\n简而言之，只有等到就业新增真的有明显改善后，才能达到美联储要的“实质性进展”的目标条件。也只有等到那个时候，美联储才会认真考虑量化宽松规模是不是要缩减。\n下面我们再来回顾一下美国的通胀是怎么形成的。\n第一个是印钞机给居民发钱导致消费者“买买买”；第二个是本土生产没有修复，因为就业大军没有回归的、物流成本上升和上游原材料供给稀缺（比如汽车缺芯、盖房子缺木材）；第三个是原材料价格、运费等各类成本涨得太快，中国也接不动出口新订单。\n在需求扩张较快和供应相对紧缺的背景下，我们看到美国通胀呈现出了“无量上涨”的特征。由于供给根本匹配不上需求的扩张的速度，居民部门想买都买不到货，价格就只能跳涨了。\n这跟美国房地产市场很像，成屋销售数据从今年年初就开始下降了，但这并不是需求减弱了，因为成屋销售的售价还在加速上行，与此同时，美国成屋库存在被消耗。\n\n要想缓解通胀压力，其实逻辑也很简单，要么抑制需求，比如少发点福利，要么引导就业回归到各个岗位上去，把生产弄起来。福利下去了，需求弱了，而生产变多了，通胀压力自然就下去了。\n现在的关键就是后续就业新增能不能上去，这又取决于：\n1、全民免疫后，美国服务业复苏的强度，如果油价生产供应比较稳定，油价涨跌可以作为服务业修复高频代理指标；\n2、美国的中小企业和供应链是不是因为疫情受到了中长期损害，如果是的话，美国的供应链和生产环节吸纳不了多少就业，也就起不到修复生产的效果。\n这些宏观经济变量，至少从现在来看，还是有不确定性的，要等到失业救济退出后，就业能否放量，答案才能逐渐明晰。\n所以，在就业放量补缺口前，美联储是不会忙着提Taper的，给居民部门发福利也不会那么快退出。从美国劳工部的数据来看，70%的失业救济到了今年三季度末才会陆续退出。\n如果美国短期既做不到抑制需求，也无法扩大生产规模，那缓解通胀就只有一个办法，降上游成本，让生产国的汇率贬值，通过扩大对生产国的进口来补充零售的库存。\n这就是为什么美联储不敢提Taper,因为就业市场能不能修复还有一定的不确定，但美联储愿意把市场的加息预期提前，把美元拉上去，因为这样既可以让生产国的汇率贬值进而扩大进口，也可以打压一下上游大宗的价格，给本国和生产国一些生产的利润，方便重建零售库存。\n四、市场含义\n故事讲到这里，我们认为后续市场的逻辑就非常清晰了。\n至少在短期，没有过于关注美联储是否会Taper的必要，因为这个需要就业缺口修复的确认后才会发生，然后才会成为市场定价的焦点。\n现在大家都热炒的通胀或滞胀，本质上都是供需急剧错配的结果，当供给的弹性弱到一定程度以后，通胀是以“无量上涨”的形式出现的。\n所以，现在全球经济的主要矛盾不再是要继续发钞票去拉高总需求，让物价继续往上走，而是修复脆弱的供应链，通过供给修复来缓和通胀的预期。\n换言之，市场定价通缩的背后不一定是在定价经济需求的走弱，更有可能是在定价供应链瓶颈的短期修复。\n如果美国短期无法通过需求生产的再平衡重建自身的库存，解决供应链瓶颈的问题就需要通过扩大进口来解决。\n由于大宗商品价格上涨使得生产供应链的成本攀升太快，接不动订单，从这个角度来看，打压上游大宗商品的价格在现阶段会成为中美两国的共识。\n两国角力的重点，在当下也不会是“撒胡椒面”式的，而是有可能集中在会形成“技术代差”的科技创新领域。\n所以，当下最好别有大宗商品价格单边上涨的预期，赌大宗商品价格继续单边上涨大概率是会吃亏的。\n其实大宗商品涨价的支撑也不完全是因为当前的需求有多强，求大于供的预期起到了很大的作用。\n很多大宗商品的低库存并一定是因为当下需求旺盛而供应不足导致的，而是因为存在未来需求会远大于供给的预期，导致下游恐慌性囤货，叠加贸易商库存囤积，价格上涨导致库存隐性化，而库存隐性化又进一步驱动了价格上涨。\n一旦价格单边上涨的预期没了，隐藏的库存就都跑出来了。\n如果说美国需要通过进口和人民币汇率贬值来缓解消费品库存不足的矛盾，这意味着中国三季度出口维持高位的问题不大。\n这一轮国内压着房地产和基建，无论是工业生产还是制造业投资，基本上是靠出口驱动的，只要出口还能维持高位，那就意味着三季度经济基本面至少是不弱的。\n只要有基本面搭台，股票的风险偏好就能有保障，而且上游价格涨幅如果真能控制，中下游的盈利空间也就出来了，可以关注成长板块的机会，尤其要关注底层核心零部件和材料自主可控的政策溢价。\n当然，“通胀交易”可以暂歇了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
