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陈洪良
2021-07-01
sshyil
Hong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.
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The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p>Despite the constant voices of Taper, resolving the issue will not be easy: on the one hand, short-term data such as US GDP, CPI, consumption, and house prices are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline in real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the excessively high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the potential negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increases on corporate investment and hiring all need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not believe that Taper will be achieved overnight; our preliminary assessment is that clearer signals will only emerge in Q4 2021/Q1 2022. The rapid rise in US Treasury yields at the beginning of the year has fully absorbed the impact of inflation. Although we believe that yields will continue to fluctuate upwards, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for a turnaround in US stocks. Based on 2022 earnings, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), the S&P 500 is still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market trend surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p>The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans corroborates that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily predict that output (year-on-year industrial added value) and M1 year-on-year will both begin to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting in June, the CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that the profitability of the manufacturing sector will improve. As the CPI gradually rises, market confidence will continue to rise.</p><p>Based on the past decade, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indices (in 2022) is only at the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this new high, with a target level of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: Momentum has been building for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We have adjusted the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge a new high in this round;</p><p>We believe that while the market will rise in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by rotation. Sectors with strong interim reports or other fundamental drivers are mainly textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, metals, and energy. Secondly, Hang Seng Technology and the financial sector are expected to report in line with expectations, but their stock prices have been oversold, which will also lead to a significant valuation recovery.</p><p>After the second quarter earnings report or Q4, some sectors are overvalued. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the year-end taper and liquidity, risk appetite cannot continue to improve. At this time, it is advisable to pay attention to resource stocks that may continue to rise in price, undervalued bank stocks, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, as well as telecommunications operators and Hong Kong stocks that have less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, vaccination rates in some countries will exceed 70%.</b></p><p>Global new COVID-19 cases have recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 per day, a significant decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with major developed countries experiencing a significant decrease in new cases compared to the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, vaccination rates (per dose) in some countries accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, most eligible countries could achieve vaccination rates exceeding 70%, which is the level recognized by the WHO.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Vaccination rate level of immunization effect. China's vaccination rate is even more astonishing, currently exceeding 1 billion doses, with 20 million doses administered daily, and it is expected to reach a vaccination rate of over 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%.</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank predicted that global GDP growth would be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%, marking the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, primarily driven by economic growth of 6.8% in the United States and 8.5% in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its initial forecast for the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both have similar expectations for China's economic growth rate: the World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%. The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, while the IMF forecasts 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States is narrowing.</b></p><p>During the pandemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the US GDP declined, narrowing the GDP gap between China and the US. In 2020, the GDP gap between China and the US was 30%. The IMF estimates that, without considering the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the US will narrow to 16% by 2026. This figure was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of a narrowing GDP gap between the two countries, the US government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as US president. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN reported that the bill aims to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on U.S. Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market remains highly attractive to U.S. companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies operating in China cited China's biggest business opportunity as \"growth in domestic consumption and the rise of a growing wealthy middle class,\" more than two-thirds of U.S. companies consider China a priority market, and 85% of U.S. companies do not intend to move their manufacturing or procurement processes outside of China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies are gaining a greater sense of gain in China; for example, in the financial sector, American companies have obtained licenses to conduct comprehensive business in China. In the food and agriculture sectors, China has amended regulations to allow more American products to enter China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion phase.</b></p><p><b>1) Implications of the US Economic Framework: The Balance Between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the US economic framework, it takes two or three quarters for interest rate policy or personal income to be transmitted to consumer spending. Then, rising consumption will lead to an improvement in industrial production and services, as well as increased corporate profits, which takes another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, anticipating an upward trend in the future economy, companies began to increase capital expenditures and actively recruit workers (this was 2-4 quarters later), thereby driving up inflation. At this point, the Federal Reserve intervened to control inflation in order to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, intervention too late could lead to inflation. But intervening too early could nip a newly recovering economy in the bud. How to judge this pace has always been a \"huge question.\" On the left is inflation, on the right is deflation, and the government and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>We must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current US economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the consumption and output prosperity in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are rising (also due to the low base last year), while the consumer confidence index has recovered to its best level since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upwards, while the services PMI in May had already surpassed its pre-pandemic high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales hit a ten-year high year-on-year, housing prices are rising rapidly, and many American media outlets are reporting on the ubiquitous phenomena of \"hard to find a house\" and \"high prices for buying a house\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, market expectations for US macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, behind the impressive data, there are also many hidden concerns:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>Since real hourly wages determine consumers' real purchasing power, during this economic recovery, the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the rise in commodity prices caused by excessive dollar issuance drove the CPI to strengthen first, resulting in an increase in nominal hourly wages while a decrease in real hourly wages. Historically, real hourly wages have been a relatively reliable leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States (of course, this is mainly based on relatively stable employment conditions), but the current trend is unclear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recovery of employment still needs to be observed.</b>According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused 22 million Americans to lose their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of pre-pandemic levels, leaving an employment gap of 8 million. In April, new non-farm payrolls in the United States fell significantly short of market expectations, and May only met low expectations. Some analysts believe that the cash-based subsidies have resulted in low-income groups earning roughly the same amount of money when working as when not working, which has made it difficult for some companies to find employees, ultimately leading to their closure and bankruptcy again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional welfare programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They stated that the additional unemployment benefits are leading unemployed workers to stay at home rather than look for work, making it difficult for companies to hire workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Policy Officer Bradley believes, \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The overall impact of ending federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is positive, but the effects remain to be seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Thirdly, there are expectations regarding tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and to ensure the midterm elections, the Democrats are unlikely to make much progress on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect companies' human resource planning to some extent. U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Clark stated that he disagrees with the government on the necessity of raising business taxes: “The proposed tax increase plan will significantly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to erect new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to work with the government on this, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce expressed support for infrastructure investment but preferred to primarily fund it through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation, said in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee that the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure programs by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, a spokesperson for the Retail Leaders Association of America, also stated that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the US stock market accounts for an excessively high proportion of residents' assets, and a decline in the stock market will severely dampen residents' enthusiasm for consumption.</b>There are two types of wealth and stock assets related to American residents: direct investment and retirement plans (which ultimately enter the stock and bond markets). These two types account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (the highest level in history), compared to real estate, the largest type of wealth for Chinese residents, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market have been mutually reinforcing: stock market decline → residents' wealth shrink → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits decline → stock market decline. Currently, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is approximately $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP for 2021 ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastverd's estimate in \"The Inevitable Economic Cycle,\" a stock market decline would have an impact factor of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the US stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative impact of a single stock market decline on GDP could reach 202% * 20% * 4% = -1.6%. This does not take into account the spillover effects such as shrinking corporate capital expenditures, inventory impairment, and the real estate market downturn. Generally speaking, during a significant stock market decline (e.g., a one-third to one-half drop) and the real estate market is also affected (e.g., a one-fifth to one-third drop), the overall impact on that year's GDP is approximately -15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the April FOMC press conference that the Fed \"<b>This will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is complete.</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of QE at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to reduce its large-scale bond-buying program in August or September, but is not expected to begin reducing monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>We reiterate this view: given the current state of the U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery may end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3), employment data (June, July, and August), and especially the impact on employment after some state governments canceled bailouts in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of US Treasury bonds indicates that market expectations for inflation have been digested.</b></p><p>Although both the US CPI and core CPI hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year US Treasury yield - 10-year TIPS yield) fell, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated and remained flat. This indicates that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue monitoring the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where the current rise in US Treasury yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in historical interest rate hike cycles (the target federal funds rate remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the rise in market interest rates is the same) on the stock market peaking. We calculated the result: the US bull market came to an end when the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend in commodities will continue.</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in our annual strategy report released in 2019, prior to the launch of this round of commodity cycles, we mentioned: \"The global medium-cycle – real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion phase, while the short-cycle – Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and is turning to expansion. The combined effect of the medium-cycle and short-cycle cycles will drive up the prices of cyclical assets.\" So far, our assessment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Given that the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of upward movement in commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 leads the CRB index by about 0-3 months (just as the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily estimate that US stocks will rise until around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>US stocks are still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net profit has also been revised upwards. The market currently expects the S&P 500 EPS growth rate to be 40% and 9% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. ROE were 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211 respectively (compared to only 170,197 when we wrote our strategy report at the end of last year, representing upward revisions of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>As we have previously mentioned, the US Treasury yield is currently lower than before the pandemic. Based on the PE ceiling of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, a PE ratio of 21.4-21.5 times (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic), giving the S&P 500 a target price would yield:</p><p>SPX target price 2021=194*21.4=4151 points;</p><p>If we consider switching the valuation to 2022, we can obtain:</p><p>SPX target price 2022=211*21.4=4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that in the next two years, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upwards and reaches 4,500 points, US stocks will still operate within the valuation channel of the past decade and are not significantly overvalued. Of course, discussing overvaluation inevitably requires discussing US Treasury yields, TAPER versus QE, and the position of the economic cycle, issues we have already explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. A-shares: The rally surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p><b>1. The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding.</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year and began to show signs of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium- and long-term loans continued to maintain very steady growth, indicating strong credit demand in the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Breaking down the social financing accounts, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have seen the most significant declines recently. The decline in corporate bonds is due to the central government's requirement this year to effectively resolve the risks of local government hidden debt, and the joint efforts of multiple departments to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt. Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared to last year. Referring to the Ministry of Finance's recent quota of 4,267.6 billion yuan for new local government debt in 2021 (of which 800 billion yuan is for general debt and 3,467.6 billion yuan is for special debt), this is lower than the 4.47 trillion yuan budget previously approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (of which 3.75 trillion yuan is for special debt). The decline in trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period for the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still searching for transformation and innovation. Therefore, this year's social financing is characterized by a slowdown in financing demand from government and local government financing platforms, suppression of real estate/trust financing, and strong loan demand from the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added have either reached or are close to their annual lows and will rise along with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not included in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we believe that the greater decline in social financing than in M2 is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic liquidity is relatively loose, MLF has not increased since the pandemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads are declining (AA+, with AAA being more pronounced than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting in June, the gap between CPI and PPI will narrow.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the PPI faced significant upward pressure. During the tracking process in the first few months, we also felt that the PPI rise repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of the year for the PPI, so from a pattern perspective, it is undoubtedly true that the PPI has started to decline since June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the decline in pork prices. However, when looking at the categories, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, and food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to show significant improvements month-on-month. We estimate that the CPI will remain resilient and steadily rise in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, the decline in PPI represents an easing of inflationary pressures, which is conducive to the recovery of manufacturing profits. However, this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, as demand improves, supply-side production capacity cannot expand significantly in a short period. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical goods is generally low, and as inventory is reduced, commodity prices still have room to rise further.</p><p><b>3. A-share valuations are not high; focus on sectors with upward revisions to interim earnings forecasts.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the current valuation of A-shares is not high.</b></p><p>Let's use the valuation levels of the past decade as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A-shares.</p><p>Wind All A is currently valued at 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level will fall back to the average in 2022 along with the growth of performance. The CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If a valuation shift is considered, the PE ratio will fall back to the average level in 2022 along with the growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE ratio in 2022 will be lower than the average. The current valuation level of the ChiNext market is slightly higher at 59.0 times, but it is still below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of the ChiNext market is higher, its corresponding PE ratio in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only -1 standard deviation of the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is below -1 standard deviation. The valuation level of the SSE 50 is relatively high, and considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, looking at the A-share market over a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high, and once a valuation shift is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation will only be at the historical average level. If we calculate the upside potential of A-shares, we use the usual Shanghai Composite Index at its highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Considering factors including the valuation shift in 2022, we estimate the upside target range to be approximately 4200-4300 points. The above considerations are based on the scenario where the economic cycle expansion is not yet over, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from improved performance rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indices, the CSI 500 is more attractive than the valuations of the CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) In terms of growth potential, science and technology innovation and cyclical economies have seen more significant earnings growth this year.</b></p><p>In terms of performance growth, the STAR Market has the highest growth rate among broad-based indices this year, with a growth rate of 70% in 2021 compared to 2020. This is followed by small-cap companies, such as the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext 50. Considering the current valuation level and rebound, the STAR Market and CSI 500 offer good value for money. In terms of style, the profit growth rate of cyclical industries remains undeniable this year, with a year-on-year increase of 82%, outperforming growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the fastest-growing industries this year include non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also ranked high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustments, cyclical industries have a greater advantage.</b></p><p>Following the annual reports (April 30), the STAR Market 50 and CSI 500 were expected to see the largest upward revisions among all broad-based indices, while the Shanghai Composite Index was also revised upward by 1%, ranking third. The ChiNext, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 ranked in the bottom three, respectively. When comparing styles, cyclical sectors saw the largest increase in performance, while growth sectors saw the largest downward revision. This slightly contradicts our observation in the previous table. Although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the downward revision of earnings after the annual report indicates that the current upward trend in growth stocks is differentiated rather than widespread, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary. With the second quarter report approaching, we believe that opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings by industry are as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, and transportation, petroleum, and petrochemicals rank first, while machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light manufacturing also saw certain upward adjustments. The following sectors rank last: commerce and retail, media, general, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this ranking, we believe it is still necessary to discuss commodity prices. For example, if the prices of base metals, coal, and crude oil rise, it will put profit pressure on midstream industries that are sensitive to raw materials, such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances. If prices in the upstream of the cycle remain stable or decline, the profit growth rate of these industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is that the current economic cycle is not over yet, and the core variables of rising commodity prices, such as the relatively limited capacity expansion over 7-10 consecutive years, have not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure on upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>Regarding sector earnings forecasts, we tend to believe that the interim results of cyclical upstream sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and coal are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation recovery potential of the financial sector should not be ignored.</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and market yields rise, the financial industry is expected to improve its profitability due to the increase in interest rate spreads. Therefore, undervalued financial institutions are expected to recover in the second half of the year. We place the primary industry in the PE/PB percentile matrix for observation. Currently, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at a historical low, and we expect the ROE of the banking industry to increase relatively significantly year-on-year in Q2 this year (compared to the projected increase starting in Q2 last year). The insurance industry has had poor premium income this year, but due to the sector's lack of performance over the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully absorbed into the stock price, and there is room for valuation recovery in the second half of the year. Securities firms have experienced a year of weak fluctuations since July of last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, they are below the 10th percentile historically). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration-based IPO system and the fact that securities firms have better asset quality than insurance and banking companies, we believe this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth potential, expectation adjustments, and valuation.<b>We are optimistic about the Science and Technology Innovation Board, upstream cyclical sectors, and the financial sector as our top picks for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, based on our previous calculations, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>III. Hong Kong Stocks: Preparing for a Long Time, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this new high in the second half of 2021.</b></p><p>The market expects the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to grow by 11% in EPS in 2021 and -2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with year-on-year growth rates of 19% and 12%, respectively. Some large internet companies are still focusing on revenue growth rather than profits this year, which is part of the reason. In addition, the high proportion of real estate and finance in the Hang Seng Index has also dragged down profit growth to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the historical price-to-book range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI). We use this to calculate the target level for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a previous report, we explained that, based on historical volatility, net assets are more stable (compared to EPS and Dividend). Therefore, we typically consider price-to-book (PB) valuation or Dividend ratio when predicting the lows or highs of the Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in price-to-book ratio during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion to estimate the upper limit of price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021 using the median.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio (PB) has expanded by 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively in each Kitchen cycle, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We have obtained a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.39 times for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 + 60%) = 1.39</p><p>Based on analysts' expectations of 21,784 points and 23,387 points for net assets in 2021-2022, the target level for the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021)*1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the target price for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year will be around 31,000-32,000 points, which means it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>In our \"2020 Hong Kong Stock Summary\" at the beginning of the year, we summarized five key directions: \"Looking ahead to 2021, the likely directions for finding excess returns are: 1. The new economy remains the main battleground, especially investment targets interfered with by anti-monopoly policies and US policies, which will present opportunities for 'panic, wrongful sell-off, and new highs'; 2. Newly listed stocks will bring more investment leads; 3. Rising risk appetite will help converge valuations of all sizes.\" 4. Cyclical sectors will narrow the performance gap between sectors as the pandemic recovers; 5. The implementation of the US investment ban will bring valuation repair opportunities to the listed companies.</p><p><b>review: In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rise, fall, and rebound.</b></p><p>The first phase, before the Spring Festival, saw technology and biotechnology stocks take the lead, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29% at its peak.</p><p>The second phase, from after the Spring Festival to early May, saw a sharp pullback/retracement in the Hang Seng Tech Index, driven by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields and the impact of internet anti-monopoly measures. The yield fell from 29% to -11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell below 28,000 points.</p><p>The third phase is from late May to June. As US Treasury yields stabilized and the market continued to absorb the many impacts of anti-monopoly measures, major indices began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), and then the Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%). The China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks, as a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotech are the two sectors that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technologies saw significant gains, and the impact of anti-monopoly measures led some investors to take profits. Hang Seng Biotech, on the other hand, took over and performed exceptionally well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will remain the main battleground, and Hang Seng Technology and biotechnology will both perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs such as Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge Southern OP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been launched. Mainland investors can use these ETFs to purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index, thus addressing issues not covered by Hong Kong stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Investment restrictions on a large number of stocks, including Baidu, JD.com, and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) In terms of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if you want to outperform the Hang Seng Index, you should concentrate your positions on Hang Seng small-cap, small- and medium-cap, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap and medium-to-large-cap stocks. Currently, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. According to historical statistics, when the price-to-book difference between the two turns positive, the valuation correction ends (and often the end of a bull market). This also shows that the opportunities in the current market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, apart from the medical sector, the upstream of the cycle has shone brightly this year. Among them, the energy sector ranked first, the raw materials sector ranked third, and the integrated sector and Hang Seng Industrials also performed well. Lower-ranked industries include essential consumer goods, information technology, and finance. We remain very optimistic about resource commodities, as commodity prices have risen significantly compared to last year. For example, crude oil prices have reached a new high since the pandemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, it is highly likely that these sectors will perform well in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to statistics on the industry performance of 524 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal saw an astonishing increase, followed by steel, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel, media, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The sectors ranking last were mainly power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, general, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the prohibited investment list, the returns in the first half of the year were encouraging. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the companies under the ban would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list was 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecommunications operators and oil companies, still have low valuations and considerable room for growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: Cyclical advantage, catering/computer sector downgraded.</b></p><p>Profit Expectations: Comparing the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries, including steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank financial institutions, before and after the annual reports, the performance expectations of several sectors, including catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media, have been revised upward, while the performance expectations of several sectors have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue Forecast: Compared with the period before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue forecasts for several industries, including defense, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation, have been revised upwards. Revenue forecasts for industries such as catering and tourism, computers, and media have been revised downwards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation Comparison: Textiles and apparel hit a new high, while the real estate industry chain hit a new low.</b></p><p>Comparing data from the past five years, the current valuation percentile of the Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median). Among them, the textile and apparel, steel, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors are relatively high, while the real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank financial institutions, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation sectors are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Near-month capital inflows/outflows: Some midstream investors are still inflowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market.</p><p>Judging from recent capital inflows, many midstream sectors have seen further increased holdings, while the financial sector and cyclical upstream sectors are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure further demonstrates that the economic recovery is still underway rather than at its end. At the end of a bull market, the situation should be the opposite: midstream funds flow out, while large financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate their inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Investment Recommendations</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI rises, undervaluations will undergo a certain degree of valuation recovery. Compared to industries such as finance, real estate, utilities, and telecommunications operators, we believe that finance is superior. The reasons are a) Banks and securities firms made significant provisions in 2020, resulting in a more pronounced year-on-year improvement in their performance this year; b) They are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have boosted their earnings expectations; The real estate industry has higher land acquisition costs this year, reflected in a relatively high land premium, while the construction and installation costs are also relatively high given the high levels of commodities. Therefore, we believe that although real estate companies are currently valued lower, they are slightly less attractive than companies in the industry chain. The development of the construction industry is constrained by the scale of government investment, and its growth rate is expected to slow further in the future.</p><p>2. Looking at the second-quarter reports, cyclical industries, especially upstream companies, are more likely to exceed expectations. Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals will perform even better as commodity prices remain high (or even rise further). During this period, midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and home appliances may rise first and then fall, because rising commodity prices in the later stages of economic expansion have narrowed their profits, and the transmission of prices downstream is not as easy as in the early and mid-stages of economic expansion.</p><p>3. During this economic cycle, due to the combined effects of the pandemic and economic transformation (dual circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and branded apparel, especially those unique companies in the Hong Kong stock market, will present good investment value in the past and in the future. Currently, Hang Seng Tech needs a rebound. We believe that the anti-monopoly pressure has been fully absorbed. In the first half of the year, the stock prices of biotechnology, medical devices, and textiles and apparel are not low, but they all have short-term catalysts, whether in terms of policy or performance. We believe that their performance is similar to that of the midstream. They will still perform well in Q3, while their attractiveness will decline in Q4 due to high valuations.</p><p>In summary, we believe that macro finance, upstream cyclical sectors, and Hang Seng Technology are the three sectors we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and textiles and apparel will also present trend opportunities around the time of the interim reports. Due to the recurring pandemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and a significant opportunity is expected to emerge in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", by Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p>Despite the constant voices of Taper, resolving the issue will not be easy: on the one hand, short-term data such as US GDP, CPI, consumption, and house prices are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline in real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the excessively high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the potential negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increases on corporate investment and hiring all need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not believe that Taper will be achieved overnight; our preliminary assessment is that clearer signals will only emerge in Q4 2021/Q1 2022. The rapid rise in US Treasury yields at the beginning of the year has fully absorbed the impact of inflation. Although we believe that yields will continue to fluctuate upwards, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for a turnaround in US stocks. Based on 2022 earnings, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), the S&P 500 is still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market trend surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p>The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans corroborates that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily predict that output (year-on-year industrial added value) and M1 year-on-year will both begin to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting in June, the CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that the profitability of the manufacturing sector will improve. As the CPI gradually rises, market confidence will continue to rise.</p><p>Based on the past decade, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indices (in 2022) is only at the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this new high, with a target level of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: Momentum has been building for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We have adjusted the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge a new high in this round;</p><p>We believe that while the market will rise in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by rotation. Sectors with strong interim reports or other fundamental drivers are mainly textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, metals, and energy. Secondly, Hang Seng Technology and the financial sector are expected to report in line with expectations, but their stock prices have been oversold, which will also lead to a significant valuation recovery.</p><p>After the second quarter earnings report or Q4, some sectors are overvalued. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the year-end taper and liquidity, risk appetite cannot continue to improve. At this time, it is advisable to pay attention to resource stocks that may continue to rise in price, undervalued bank stocks, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, as well as telecommunications operators and Hong Kong stocks that have less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, vaccination rates in some countries will exceed 70%.</b></p><p>Global new COVID-19 cases have recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 per day, a significant decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with major developed countries experiencing a significant decrease in new cases compared to the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, vaccination rates (per dose) in some countries accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, most eligible countries could achieve vaccination rates exceeding 70%, which is the level recognized by the WHO.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Vaccination rate level of immunization effect. China's vaccination rate is even more astonishing, currently exceeding 1 billion doses, with 20 million doses administered daily, and it is expected to reach a vaccination rate of over 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%.</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank predicted that global GDP growth would be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%, marking the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, primarily driven by economic growth of 6.8% in the United States and 8.5% in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its initial forecast for the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both have similar expectations for China's economic growth rate: the World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%. The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, while the IMF forecasts 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States is narrowing.</b></p><p>During the pandemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the US GDP declined, narrowing the GDP gap between China and the US. In 2020, the GDP gap between China and the US was 30%. The IMF estimates that, without considering the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the US will narrow to 16% by 2026. This figure was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of a narrowing GDP gap between the two countries, the US government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as US president. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN reported that the bill aims to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on U.S. Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market remains highly attractive to U.S. companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies operating in China cited China's biggest business opportunity as \"growth in domestic consumption and the rise of a growing wealthy middle class,\" more than two-thirds of U.S. companies consider China a priority market, and 85% of U.S. companies do not intend to move their manufacturing or procurement processes outside of China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies are gaining a greater sense of gain in China; for example, in the financial sector, American companies have obtained licenses to conduct comprehensive business in China. In the food and agriculture sectors, China has amended regulations to allow more American products to enter China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion phase.</b></p><p><b>1) Implications of the US Economic Framework: The Balance Between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the US economic framework, it takes two or three quarters for interest rate policy or personal income to be transmitted to consumer spending. Then, rising consumption will lead to an improvement in industrial production and services, as well as increased corporate profits, which takes another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, anticipating an upward trend in the future economy, companies began to increase capital expenditures and actively recruit workers (this was 2-4 quarters later), thereby driving up inflation. At this point, the Federal Reserve intervened to control inflation in order to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, intervention too late could lead to inflation. But intervening too early could nip a newly recovering economy in the bud. How to judge this pace has always been a \"huge question.\" On the left is inflation, on the right is deflation, and the government and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>We must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current US economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the consumption and output prosperity in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are rising (also due to the low base last year), while the consumer confidence index has recovered to its best level since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upwards, while the services PMI in May had already surpassed its pre-pandemic high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales hit a ten-year high year-on-year, housing prices are rising rapidly, and many American media outlets are reporting on the ubiquitous phenomena of \"hard to find a house\" and \"high prices for buying a house\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, market expectations for US macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, behind the impressive data, there are also many hidden concerns:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>Since real hourly wages determine consumers' real purchasing power, during this economic recovery, the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the rise in commodity prices caused by excessive dollar issuance drove the CPI to strengthen first, resulting in an increase in nominal hourly wages while a decrease in real hourly wages. Historically, real hourly wages have been a relatively reliable leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States (of course, this is mainly based on relatively stable employment conditions), but the current trend is unclear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recovery of employment still needs to be observed.</b>According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused 22 million Americans to lose their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of pre-pandemic levels, leaving an employment gap of 8 million. In April, new non-farm payrolls in the United States fell significantly short of market expectations, and May only met low expectations. Some analysts believe that the cash-based subsidies have resulted in low-income groups earning roughly the same amount of money when working as when not working, which has made it difficult for some companies to find employees, ultimately leading to their closure and bankruptcy again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional welfare programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They stated that the additional unemployment benefits are leading unemployed workers to stay at home rather than look for work, making it difficult for companies to hire workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Policy Officer Bradley believes, \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The overall impact of ending federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is positive, but the effects remain to be seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Thirdly, there are expectations regarding tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and to ensure the midterm elections, the Democrats are unlikely to make much progress on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect companies' human resource planning to some extent. U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Clark stated that he disagrees with the government on the necessity of raising business taxes: “The proposed tax increase plan will significantly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to erect new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to work with the government on this, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce expressed support for infrastructure investment but preferred to primarily fund it through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation, said in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee that the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure programs by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, a spokesperson for the Retail Leaders Association of America, also stated that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the US stock market accounts for an excessively high proportion of residents' assets, and a decline in the stock market will severely dampen residents' enthusiasm for consumption.</b>There are two types of wealth and stock assets related to American residents: direct investment and retirement plans (which ultimately enter the stock and bond markets). These two types account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (the highest level in history), compared to real estate, the largest type of wealth for Chinese residents, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market have been mutually reinforcing: stock market decline → residents' wealth shrink → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits decline → stock market decline. Currently, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is approximately $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP for 2021 ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastverd's estimate in \"The Inevitable Economic Cycle,\" a stock market decline would have an impact factor of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the US stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative impact of a single stock market decline on GDP could reach 202% * 20% * 4% = -1.6%. This does not take into account the spillover effects such as shrinking corporate capital expenditures, inventory impairment, and the real estate market downturn. Generally speaking, during a significant stock market decline (e.g., a one-third to one-half drop) and the real estate market is also affected (e.g., a one-fifth to one-third drop), the overall impact on that year's GDP is approximately -15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the April FOMC press conference that the Fed \"<b>This will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is complete.</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of QE at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to reduce its large-scale bond-buying program in August or September, but is not expected to begin reducing monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>We reiterate this view: given the current state of the U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery may end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3), employment data (June, July, and August), and especially the impact on employment after some state governments canceled bailouts in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of US Treasury bonds indicates that market expectations for inflation have been digested.</b></p><p>Although both the US CPI and core CPI hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year US Treasury yield - 10-year TIPS yield) fell, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated and remained flat. This indicates that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue monitoring the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where the current rise in US Treasury yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in historical interest rate hike cycles (the target federal funds rate remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the rise in market interest rates is the same) on the stock market peaking. We calculated the result: the US bull market came to an end when the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend in commodities will continue.</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in our annual strategy report released in 2019, prior to the launch of this round of commodity cycles, we mentioned: \"The global medium-cycle – real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion phase, while the short-cycle – Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and is turning to expansion. The combined effect of the medium-cycle and short-cycle cycles will drive up the prices of cyclical assets.\" So far, our assessment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Given that the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of upward movement in commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 leads the CRB index by about 0-3 months (just as the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily estimate that US stocks will rise until around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>US stocks are still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net profit has also been revised upwards. The market currently expects the S&P 500 EPS growth rate to be 40% and 9% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. ROE were 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211 respectively (compared to only 170,197 when we wrote our strategy report at the end of last year, representing upward revisions of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>As we have previously mentioned, the US Treasury yield is currently lower than before the pandemic. Based on the PE ceiling of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, a PE ratio of 21.4-21.5 times (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic), giving the S&P 500 a target price would yield:</p><p>SPX target price 2021=194*21.4=4151 points;</p><p>If we consider switching the valuation to 2022, we can obtain:</p><p>SPX target price 2022=211*21.4=4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that in the next two years, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upwards and reaches 4,500 points, US stocks will still operate within the valuation channel of the past decade and are not significantly overvalued. Of course, discussing overvaluation inevitably requires discussing US Treasury yields, TAPER versus QE, and the position of the economic cycle, issues we have already explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. A-shares: The rally surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p><b>1. The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding.</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year and began to show signs of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium- and long-term loans continued to maintain very steady growth, indicating strong credit demand in the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Breaking down the social financing accounts, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have seen the most significant declines recently. The decline in corporate bonds is due to the central government's requirement this year to effectively resolve the risks of local government hidden debt, and the joint efforts of multiple departments to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt. Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared to last year. Referring to the Ministry of Finance's recent quota of 4,267.6 billion yuan for new local government debt in 2021 (of which 800 billion yuan is for general debt and 3,467.6 billion yuan is for special debt), this is lower than the 4.47 trillion yuan budget previously approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (of which 3.75 trillion yuan is for special debt). The decline in trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period for the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still searching for transformation and innovation. Therefore, this year's social financing is characterized by a slowdown in financing demand from government and local government financing platforms, suppression of real estate/trust financing, and strong loan demand from the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added have either reached or are close to their annual lows and will rise along with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not included in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we believe that the greater decline in social financing than in M2 is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic liquidity is relatively loose, MLF has not increased since the pandemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads are declining (AA+, with AAA being more pronounced than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting in June, the gap between CPI and PPI will narrow.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the PPI faced significant upward pressure. During the tracking process in the first few months, we also felt that the PPI rise repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of the year for the PPI, so from a pattern perspective, it is undoubtedly true that the PPI has started to decline since June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the decline in pork prices. However, when looking at the categories, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, and food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to show significant improvements month-on-month. We estimate that the CPI will remain resilient and steadily rise in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, the decline in PPI represents an easing of inflationary pressures, which is conducive to the recovery of manufacturing profits. However, this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, as demand improves, supply-side production capacity cannot expand significantly in a short period. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical goods is generally low, and as inventory is reduced, commodity prices still have room to rise further.</p><p><b>3. A-share valuations are not high; focus on sectors with upward revisions to interim earnings forecasts.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the current valuation of A-shares is not high.</b></p><p>Let's use the valuation levels of the past decade as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A-shares.</p><p>Wind All A is currently valued at 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level will fall back to the average in 2022 along with the growth of performance. The CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If a valuation shift is considered, the PE ratio will fall back to the average level in 2022 along with the growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE ratio in 2022 will be lower than the average. The current valuation level of the ChiNext market is slightly higher at 59.0 times, but it is still below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of the ChiNext market is higher, its corresponding PE ratio in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only -1 standard deviation of the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is below -1 standard deviation. The valuation level of the SSE 50 is relatively high, and considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, looking at the A-share market over a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high, and once a valuation shift is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation will only be at the historical average level. If we calculate the upside potential of A-shares, we use the usual Shanghai Composite Index at its highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Considering factors including the valuation shift in 2022, we estimate the upside target range to be approximately 4200-4300 points. The above considerations are based on the scenario where the economic cycle expansion is not yet over, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from improved performance rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indices, the CSI 500 is more attractive than the valuations of the CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) In terms of growth potential, science and technology innovation and cyclical economies have seen more significant earnings growth this year.</b></p><p>In terms of performance growth, the STAR Market has the highest growth rate among broad-based indices this year, with a growth rate of 70% in 2021 compared to 2020. This is followed by small-cap companies, such as the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext 50. Considering the current valuation level and rebound, the STAR Market and CSI 500 offer good value for money. In terms of style, the profit growth rate of cyclical industries remains undeniable this year, with a year-on-year increase of 82%, outperforming growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the fastest-growing industries this year include non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also ranked high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustments, cyclical industries have a greater advantage.</b></p><p>Following the annual reports (April 30), the STAR Market 50 and CSI 500 were expected to see the largest upward revisions among all broad-based indices, while the Shanghai Composite Index was also revised upward by 1%, ranking third. The ChiNext, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 ranked in the bottom three, respectively. When comparing styles, cyclical sectors saw the largest increase in performance, while growth sectors saw the largest downward revision. This slightly contradicts our observation in the previous table. Although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the downward revision of earnings after the annual report indicates that the current upward trend in growth stocks is differentiated rather than widespread, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary. With the second quarter report approaching, we believe that opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings by industry are as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, and transportation, petroleum, and petrochemicals rank first, while machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light manufacturing also saw certain upward adjustments. The following sectors rank last: commerce and retail, media, general, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this ranking, we believe it is still necessary to discuss commodity prices. For example, if the prices of base metals, coal, and crude oil rise, it will put profit pressure on midstream industries that are sensitive to raw materials, such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances. If prices in the upstream of the cycle remain stable or decline, the profit growth rate of these industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is that the current economic cycle is not over yet, and the core variables of rising commodity prices, such as the relatively limited capacity expansion over 7-10 consecutive years, have not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure on upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>Regarding sector earnings forecasts, we tend to believe that the interim results of cyclical upstream sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and coal are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation recovery potential of the financial sector should not be ignored.</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and market yields rise, the financial industry is expected to improve its profitability due to the increase in interest rate spreads. Therefore, undervalued financial institutions are expected to recover in the second half of the year. We place the primary industry in the PE/PB percentile matrix for observation. Currently, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at a historical low, and we expect the ROE of the banking industry to increase relatively significantly year-on-year in Q2 this year (compared to the projected increase starting in Q2 last year). The insurance industry has had poor premium income this year, but due to the sector's lack of performance over the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully absorbed into the stock price, and there is room for valuation recovery in the second half of the year. Securities firms have experienced a year of weak fluctuations since July of last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, they are below the 10th percentile historically). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration-based IPO system and the fact that securities firms have better asset quality than insurance and banking companies, we believe this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth potential, expectation adjustments, and valuation.<b>We are optimistic about the Science and Technology Innovation Board, upstream cyclical sectors, and the financial sector as our top picks for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, based on our previous calculations, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>III. Hong Kong Stocks: Preparing for a Long Time, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this new high in the second half of 2021.</b></p><p>The market expects the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to grow by 11% in EPS in 2021 and -2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with year-on-year growth rates of 19% and 12%, respectively. Some large internet companies are still focusing on revenue growth rather than profits this year, which is part of the reason. In addition, the high proportion of real estate and finance in the Hang Seng Index has also dragged down profit growth to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the historical price-to-book range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI). We use this to calculate the target level for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a previous report, we explained that, based on historical volatility, net assets are more stable (compared to EPS and Dividend). Therefore, we typically consider price-to-book (PB) valuation or Dividend ratio when predicting the lows or highs of the Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in price-to-book ratio during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion to estimate the upper limit of price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021 using the median.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio (PB) has expanded by 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively in each Kitchen cycle, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We have obtained a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.39 times for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 + 60%) = 1.39</p><p>Based on analysts' expectations of 21,784 points and 23,387 points for net assets in 2021-2022, the target level for the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021)*1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the target price for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year will be around 31,000-32,000 points, which means it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>In our \"2020 Hong Kong Stock Summary\" at the beginning of the year, we summarized five key directions: \"Looking ahead to 2021, the likely directions for finding excess returns are: 1. The new economy remains the main battleground, especially investment targets interfered with by anti-monopoly policies and US policies, which will present opportunities for 'panic, wrongful sell-off, and new highs'; 2. Newly listed stocks will bring more investment leads; 3. Rising risk appetite will help converge valuations of all sizes.\" 4. Cyclical sectors will narrow the performance gap between sectors as the pandemic recovers; 5. The implementation of the US investment ban will bring valuation repair opportunities to the listed companies.</p><p><b>review: In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rise, fall, and rebound.</b></p><p>The first phase, before the Spring Festival, saw technology and biotechnology stocks take the lead, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29% at its peak.</p><p>The second phase, from after the Spring Festival to early May, saw a sharp pullback/retracement in the Hang Seng Tech Index, driven by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields and the impact of internet anti-monopoly measures. The yield fell from 29% to -11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell below 28,000 points.</p><p>The third phase is from late May to June. As US Treasury yields stabilized and the market continued to absorb the many impacts of anti-monopoly measures, major indices began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), and then the Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%). The China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks, as a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotech are the two sectors that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technologies saw significant gains, and the impact of anti-monopoly measures led some investors to take profits. Hang Seng Biotech, on the other hand, took over and performed exceptionally well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will remain the main battleground, and Hang Seng Technology and biotechnology will both perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs such as Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge Southern OP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been launched. Mainland investors can use these ETFs to purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index, thus addressing issues not covered by Hong Kong stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Investment restrictions on a large number of stocks, including Baidu, JD.com, and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) In terms of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if you want to outperform the Hang Seng Index, you should concentrate your positions on Hang Seng small-cap, small- and medium-cap, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap and medium-to-large-cap stocks. Currently, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. According to historical statistics, when the price-to-book difference between the two turns positive, the valuation correction ends (and often the end of a bull market). This also shows that the opportunities in the current market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, apart from the medical sector, the upstream of the cycle has shone brightly this year. Among them, the energy sector ranked first, the raw materials sector ranked third, and the integrated sector and Hang Seng Industrials also performed well. Lower-ranked industries include essential consumer goods, information technology, and finance. We remain very optimistic about resource commodities, as commodity prices have risen significantly compared to last year. For example, crude oil prices have reached a new high since the pandemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, it is highly likely that these sectors will perform well in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to statistics on the industry performance of 524 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal saw an astonishing increase, followed by steel, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel, media, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The sectors ranking last were mainly power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, general, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the prohibited investment list, the returns in the first half of the year were encouraging. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the companies under the ban would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list was 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecommunications operators and oil companies, still have low valuations and considerable room for growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: Cyclical advantage, catering/computer sector downgraded.</b></p><p>Profit Expectations: Comparing the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries, including steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank financial institutions, before and after the annual reports, the performance expectations of several sectors, including catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media, have been revised upward, while the performance expectations of several sectors have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue Forecast: Compared with the period before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue forecasts for several industries, including defense, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation, have been revised upwards. Revenue forecasts for industries such as catering and tourism, computers, and media have been revised downwards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation Comparison: Textiles and apparel hit a new high, while the real estate industry chain hit a new low.</b></p><p>Comparing data from the past five years, the current valuation percentile of the Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median). Among them, the textile and apparel, steel, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors are relatively high, while the real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank financial institutions, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation sectors are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Near-month capital inflows/outflows: Some midstream investors are still inflowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market.</p><p>Judging from recent capital inflows, many midstream sectors have seen further increased holdings, while the financial sector and cyclical upstream sectors are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure further demonstrates that the economic recovery is still underway rather than at its end. At the end of a bull market, the situation should be the opposite: midstream funds flow out, while large financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate their inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Investment Recommendations</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI rises, undervaluations will undergo a certain degree of valuation recovery. Compared to industries such as finance, real estate, utilities, and telecommunications operators, we believe that finance is superior. The reasons are a) Banks and securities firms made significant provisions in 2020, resulting in a more pronounced year-on-year improvement in their performance this year; b) They are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have boosted their earnings expectations; The real estate industry has higher land acquisition costs this year, reflected in a relatively high land premium, while the construction and installation costs are also relatively high given the high levels of commodities. Therefore, we believe that although real estate companies are currently valued lower, they are slightly less attractive than companies in the industry chain. The development of the construction industry is constrained by the scale of government investment, and its growth rate is expected to slow further in the future.</p><p>2. Looking at the second-quarter reports, cyclical industries, especially upstream companies, are more likely to exceed expectations. Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals will perform even better as commodity prices remain high (or even rise further). During this period, midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and home appliances may rise first and then fall, because rising commodity prices in the later stages of economic expansion have narrowed their profits, and the transmission of prices downstream is not as easy as in the early and mid-stages of economic expansion.</p><p>3. During this economic cycle, due to the combined effects of the pandemic and economic transformation (dual circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and branded apparel, especially those unique companies in the Hong Kong stock market, will present good investment value in the past and in the future. Currently, Hang Seng Tech needs a rebound. We believe that the anti-monopoly pressure has been fully absorbed. In the first half of the year, the stock prices of biotechnology, medical devices, and textiles and apparel are not low, but they all have short-term catalysts, whether in terms of policy or performance. We believe that their performance is similar to that of the midstream. They will still perform well in Q3, while their attractiveness will decline in Q4 due to high valuations.</p><p>In summary, we believe that macro finance, upstream cyclical sectors, and Hang Seng Technology are the three sectors we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and textiles and apparel will also present trend opportunities around the time of the interim reports. Due to the recurring pandemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and a significant opportunity is expected to emerge in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", by Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":158094109,"gmtCreate":1625112038601,"gmtModify":1703736399809,"author":{"id":"3569362990402240","authorId":"3569362990402240","name":"陈洪良","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569362990402240","authorIdStr":"3569362990402240"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"sshyil","listText":"sshyil","text":"sshyil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158094109","repostId":"1154941861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154941861","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625103381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154941861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 09:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154941861","media":"学恒的海外观察","summary":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期","content":"<p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p>Despite the constant voices of Taper, resolving the issue will not be easy: on the one hand, short-term data such as US GDP, CPI, consumption, and house prices are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline in real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the excessively high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the potential negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increases on corporate investment and hiring all need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not believe that Taper will be achieved overnight; our preliminary assessment is that clearer signals will only emerge in Q4 2021/Q1 2022. The rapid rise in US Treasury yields at the beginning of the year has fully absorbed the impact of inflation. Although we believe that yields will continue to fluctuate upwards, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for a turnaround in US stocks. Based on 2022 earnings, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), the S&P 500 is still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market trend surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p>The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans corroborates that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily predict that output (year-on-year industrial added value) and M1 year-on-year will both begin to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting in June, the CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that the profitability of the manufacturing sector will improve. As the CPI gradually rises, market confidence will continue to rise.</p><p>Based on the past decade, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indices (in 2022) is only at the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this new high, with a target level of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: Momentum has been building for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We have adjusted the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge a new high in this round;</p><p>We believe that while the market will rise in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by rotation. Sectors with strong interim reports or other fundamental drivers are mainly textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, metals, and energy. Secondly, Hang Seng Technology and the financial sector are expected to report in line with expectations, but their stock prices have been oversold, which will also lead to a significant valuation recovery.</p><p>After the second quarter earnings report or Q4, some sectors are overvalued. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the year-end taper and liquidity, risk appetite cannot continue to improve. At this time, it is advisable to pay attention to resource stocks that may continue to rise in price, undervalued bank stocks, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, as well as telecommunications operators and Hong Kong stocks that have less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, vaccination rates in some countries will exceed 70%.</b></p><p>Global new COVID-19 cases have recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 per day, a significant decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with major developed countries experiencing a significant decrease in new cases compared to the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, vaccination rates (per dose) in some countries accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, most eligible countries could achieve vaccination rates exceeding 70%, which is the level recognized by the WHO.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Vaccination rate level of immunization effect. China's vaccination rate is even more astonishing, currently exceeding 1 billion doses, with 20 million doses administered daily, and it is expected to reach a vaccination rate of over 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%.</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank predicted that global GDP growth would be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%, marking the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, primarily driven by economic growth of 6.8% in the United States and 8.5% in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its initial forecast for the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both have similar expectations for China's economic growth rate: the World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%. The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, while the IMF forecasts 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States is narrowing.</b></p><p>During the pandemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the US GDP declined, narrowing the GDP gap between China and the US. In 2020, the GDP gap between China and the US was 30%. The IMF estimates that, without considering the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the US will narrow to 16% by 2026. This figure was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of a narrowing GDP gap between the two countries, the US government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as US president. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN reported that the bill aims to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on U.S. Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market remains highly attractive to U.S. companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies operating in China cited China's biggest business opportunity as \"growth in domestic consumption and the rise of a growing wealthy middle class,\" more than two-thirds of U.S. companies consider China a priority market, and 85% of U.S. companies do not intend to move their manufacturing or procurement processes outside of China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies are gaining a greater sense of gain in China; for example, in the financial sector, American companies have obtained licenses to conduct comprehensive business in China. In the food and agriculture sectors, China has amended regulations to allow more American products to enter China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion phase.</b></p><p><b>1) Implications of the US Economic Framework: The Balance Between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the US economic framework, it takes two or three quarters for interest rate policy or personal income to be transmitted to consumer spending. Then, rising consumption will lead to an improvement in industrial production and services, as well as increased corporate profits, which takes another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, anticipating an upward trend in the future economy, companies began to increase capital expenditures and actively recruit workers (this was 2-4 quarters later), thereby driving up inflation. At this point, the Federal Reserve intervened to control inflation in order to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, intervention too late could lead to inflation. But intervening too early could nip a newly recovering economy in the bud. How to judge this pace has always been a \"huge question.\" On the left is inflation, on the right is deflation, and the government and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>We must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current US economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the consumption and output prosperity in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are rising (also due to the low base last year), while the consumer confidence index has recovered to its best level since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upwards, while the services PMI in May had already surpassed its pre-pandemic high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales hit a ten-year high year-on-year, housing prices are rising rapidly, and many American media outlets are reporting on the ubiquitous phenomena of \"hard to find a house\" and \"high prices for buying a house\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, market expectations for US macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, behind the impressive data, there are also many hidden concerns:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>Since real hourly wages determine consumers' real purchasing power, during this economic recovery, the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the rise in commodity prices caused by excessive dollar issuance drove the CPI to strengthen first, resulting in an increase in nominal hourly wages while a decrease in real hourly wages. Historically, real hourly wages have been a relatively reliable leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States (of course, this is mainly based on relatively stable employment conditions), but the current trend is unclear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recovery of employment still needs to be observed.</b>According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused 22 million Americans to lose their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of pre-pandemic levels, leaving an employment gap of 8 million. In April, new non-farm payrolls in the United States fell significantly short of market expectations, and May only met low expectations. Some analysts believe that the cash-based subsidies have resulted in low-income groups earning roughly the same amount of money when working as when not working, which has made it difficult for some companies to find employees, ultimately leading to their closure and bankruptcy again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional welfare programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They stated that the additional unemployment benefits are leading unemployed workers to stay at home rather than look for work, making it difficult for companies to hire workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Policy Officer Bradley believes, \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The overall impact of ending federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is positive, but the effects remain to be seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Thirdly, there are expectations regarding tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and to ensure the midterm elections, the Democrats are unlikely to make much progress on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect companies' human resource planning to some extent. U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Clark stated that he disagrees with the government on the necessity of raising business taxes: “The proposed tax increase plan will significantly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to erect new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to work with the government on this, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce expressed support for infrastructure investment but preferred to primarily fund it through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation, said in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee that the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure programs by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, a spokesperson for the Retail Leaders Association of America, also stated that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the US stock market accounts for an excessively high proportion of residents' assets, and a decline in the stock market will severely dampen residents' enthusiasm for consumption.</b>There are two types of wealth and stock assets related to American residents: direct investment and retirement plans (which ultimately enter the stock and bond markets). These two types account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (the highest level in history), compared to real estate, the largest type of wealth for Chinese residents, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market have been mutually reinforcing: stock market decline → residents' wealth shrink → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits decline → stock market decline. Currently, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is approximately $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP for 2021 ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastverd's estimate in \"The Inevitable Economic Cycle,\" a stock market decline would have an impact factor of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the US stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative impact of a single stock market decline on GDP could reach 202% * 20% * 4% = -1.6%. This does not take into account the spillover effects such as shrinking corporate capital expenditures, inventory impairment, and the real estate market downturn. Generally speaking, during a significant stock market decline (e.g., a one-third to one-half drop) and the real estate market is also affected (e.g., a one-fifth to one-third drop), the overall impact on that year's GDP is approximately -15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the April FOMC press conference that the Fed \"<b>This will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is complete.</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of QE at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to reduce its large-scale bond-buying program in August or September, but is not expected to begin reducing monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>We reiterate this view: given the current state of the U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery may end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3), employment data (June, July, and August), and especially the impact on employment after some state governments canceled bailouts in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of US Treasury bonds indicates that market expectations for inflation have been digested.</b></p><p>Although both the US CPI and core CPI hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year US Treasury yield - 10-year TIPS yield) fell, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated and remained flat. This indicates that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue monitoring the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where the current rise in US Treasury yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in historical interest rate hike cycles (the target federal funds rate remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the rise in market interest rates is the same) on the stock market peaking. We calculated the result: the US bull market came to an end when the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend in commodities will continue.</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in our annual strategy report released in 2019, prior to the launch of this round of commodity cycles, we mentioned: \"The global medium-cycle – real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion phase, while the short-cycle – Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and is turning to expansion. The combined effect of the medium-cycle and short-cycle cycles will drive up the prices of cyclical assets.\" So far, our assessment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Given that the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of upward movement in commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 leads the CRB index by about 0-3 months (just as the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily estimate that US stocks will rise until around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>US stocks are still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net profit has also been revised upwards. The market currently expects the S&P 500 EPS growth rate to be 40% and 9% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. ROE were 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211 respectively (compared to only 170,197 when we wrote our strategy report at the end of last year, representing upward revisions of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>As we have previously mentioned, the US Treasury yield is currently lower than before the pandemic. Based on the PE ceiling of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, a PE ratio of 21.4-21.5 times (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic), giving the S&P 500 a target price would yield:</p><p>SPX target price 2021=194*21.4=4151 points;</p><p>If we consider switching the valuation to 2022, we can obtain:</p><p>SPX target price 2022=211*21.4=4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that in the next two years, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upwards and reaches 4,500 points, US stocks will still operate within the valuation channel of the past decade and are not significantly overvalued. Of course, discussing overvaluation inevitably requires discussing US Treasury yields, TAPER versus QE, and the position of the economic cycle, issues we have already explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. A-shares: The rally surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p><b>1. The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding.</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year and began to show signs of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium- and long-term loans continued to maintain very steady growth, indicating strong credit demand in the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Breaking down the social financing accounts, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have seen the most significant declines recently. The decline in corporate bonds is due to the central government's requirement this year to effectively resolve the risks of local government hidden debt, and the joint efforts of multiple departments to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt. Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared to last year. Referring to the Ministry of Finance's recent quota of 4,267.6 billion yuan for new local government debt in 2021 (of which 800 billion yuan is for general debt and 3,467.6 billion yuan is for special debt), this is lower than the 4.47 trillion yuan budget previously approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (of which 3.75 trillion yuan is for special debt). The decline in trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period for the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still searching for transformation and innovation. Therefore, this year's social financing is characterized by a slowdown in financing demand from government and local government financing platforms, suppression of real estate/trust financing, and strong loan demand from the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added have either reached or are close to their annual lows and will rise along with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not included in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we believe that the greater decline in social financing than in M2 is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic liquidity is relatively loose, MLF has not increased since the pandemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads are declining (AA+, with AAA being more pronounced than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting in June, the gap between CPI and PPI will narrow.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the PPI faced significant upward pressure. During the tracking process in the first few months, we also felt that the PPI rise repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of the year for the PPI, so from a pattern perspective, it is undoubtedly true that the PPI has started to decline since June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the decline in pork prices. However, when looking at the categories, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, and food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to show significant improvements month-on-month. We estimate that the CPI will remain resilient and steadily rise in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, the decline in PPI represents an easing of inflationary pressures, which is conducive to the recovery of manufacturing profits. However, this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, as demand improves, supply-side production capacity cannot expand significantly in a short period. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical goods is generally low, and as inventory is reduced, commodity prices still have room to rise further.</p><p><b>3. A-share valuations are not high; focus on sectors with upward revisions to interim earnings forecasts.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the current valuation of A-shares is not high.</b></p><p>Let's use the valuation levels of the past decade as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A-shares.</p><p>Wind All A is currently valued at 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level will fall back to the average in 2022 along with the growth of performance. The CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If a valuation shift is considered, the PE ratio will fall back to the average level in 2022 along with the growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE ratio in 2022 will be lower than the average. The current valuation level of the ChiNext market is slightly higher at 59.0 times, but it is still below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of the ChiNext market is higher, its corresponding PE ratio in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only -1 standard deviation of the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is below -1 standard deviation. The valuation level of the SSE 50 is relatively high, and considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, looking at the A-share market over a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high, and once a valuation shift is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation will only be at the historical average level. If we calculate the upside potential of A-shares, we use the usual Shanghai Composite Index at its highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Considering factors including the valuation shift in 2022, we estimate the upside target range to be approximately 4200-4300 points. The above considerations are based on the scenario where the economic cycle expansion is not yet over, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from improved performance rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indices, the CSI 500 is more attractive than the valuations of the CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) In terms of growth potential, science and technology innovation and cyclical economies have seen more significant earnings growth this year.</b></p><p>In terms of performance growth, the STAR Market has the highest growth rate among broad-based indices this year, with a growth rate of 70% in 2021 compared to 2020. This is followed by small-cap companies, such as the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext 50. Considering the current valuation level and rebound, the STAR Market and CSI 500 offer good value for money. In terms of style, the profit growth rate of cyclical industries remains undeniable this year, with a year-on-year increase of 82%, outperforming growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the fastest-growing industries this year include non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also ranked high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustments, cyclical industries have a greater advantage.</b></p><p>Following the annual reports (April 30), the STAR Market 50 and CSI 500 were expected to see the largest upward revisions among all broad-based indices, while the Shanghai Composite Index was also revised upward by 1%, ranking third. The ChiNext, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 ranked in the bottom three, respectively. When comparing styles, cyclical sectors saw the largest increase in performance, while growth sectors saw the largest downward revision. This slightly contradicts our observation in the previous table. Although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the downward revision of earnings after the annual report indicates that the current upward trend in growth stocks is differentiated rather than widespread, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary. With the second quarter report approaching, we believe that opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings by industry are as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, and transportation, petroleum, and petrochemicals rank first, while machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light manufacturing also saw certain upward adjustments. The following sectors rank last: commerce and retail, media, general, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this ranking, we believe it is still necessary to discuss commodity prices. For example, if the prices of base metals, coal, and crude oil rise, it will put profit pressure on midstream industries that are sensitive to raw materials, such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances. If prices in the upstream of the cycle remain stable or decline, the profit growth rate of these industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is that the current economic cycle is not over yet, and the core variables of rising commodity prices, such as the relatively limited capacity expansion over 7-10 consecutive years, have not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure on upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>Regarding sector earnings forecasts, we tend to believe that the interim results of cyclical upstream sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and coal are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation recovery potential of the financial sector should not be ignored.</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and market yields rise, the financial industry is expected to improve its profitability due to the increase in interest rate spreads. Therefore, undervalued financial institutions are expected to recover in the second half of the year. We place the primary industry in the PE/PB percentile matrix for observation. Currently, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at a historical low, and we expect the ROE of the banking industry to increase relatively significantly year-on-year in Q2 this year (compared to the projected increase starting in Q2 last year). The insurance industry has had poor premium income this year, but due to the sector's lack of performance over the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully absorbed into the stock price, and there is room for valuation recovery in the second half of the year. Securities firms have experienced a year of weak fluctuations since July of last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, they are below the 10th percentile historically). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration-based IPO system and the fact that securities firms have better asset quality than insurance and banking companies, we believe this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth potential, expectation adjustments, and valuation.<b>We are optimistic about the Science and Technology Innovation Board, upstream cyclical sectors, and the financial sector as our top picks for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, based on our previous calculations, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>III. Hong Kong Stocks: Preparing for a Long Time, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this new high in the second half of 2021.</b></p><p>The market expects the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to grow by 11% in EPS in 2021 and -2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with year-on-year growth rates of 19% and 12%, respectively. Some large internet companies are still focusing on revenue growth rather than profits this year, which is part of the reason. In addition, the high proportion of real estate and finance in the Hang Seng Index has also dragged down profit growth to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the historical price-to-book range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI). We use this to calculate the target level for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a previous report, we explained that, based on historical volatility, net assets are more stable (compared to EPS and Dividend). Therefore, we typically consider price-to-book (PB) valuation or Dividend ratio when predicting the lows or highs of the Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in price-to-book ratio during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion to estimate the upper limit of price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021 using the median.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio (PB) has expanded by 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively in each Kitchen cycle, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We have obtained a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.39 times for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 + 60%) = 1.39</p><p>Based on analysts' expectations of 21,784 points and 23,387 points for net assets in 2021-2022, the target level for the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021)*1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the target price for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year will be around 31,000-32,000 points, which means it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>In our \"2020 Hong Kong Stock Summary\" at the beginning of the year, we summarized five key directions: \"Looking ahead to 2021, the likely directions for finding excess returns are: 1. The new economy remains the main battleground, especially investment targets interfered with by anti-monopoly policies and US policies, which will present opportunities for 'panic, wrongful sell-off, and new highs'; 2. Newly listed stocks will bring more investment leads; 3. Rising risk appetite will help converge valuations of all sizes.\" 4. Cyclical sectors will narrow the performance gap between sectors as the pandemic recovers; 5. The implementation of the US investment ban will bring valuation repair opportunities to the listed companies.</p><p><b>review: In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rise, fall, and rebound.</b></p><p>The first phase, before the Spring Festival, saw technology and biotechnology stocks take the lead, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29% at its peak.</p><p>The second phase, from after the Spring Festival to early May, saw a sharp pullback/retracement in the Hang Seng Tech Index, driven by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields and the impact of internet anti-monopoly measures. The yield fell from 29% to -11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell below 28,000 points.</p><p>The third phase is from late May to June. As US Treasury yields stabilized and the market continued to absorb the many impacts of anti-monopoly measures, major indices began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), and then the Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%). The China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks, as a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotech are the two sectors that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technologies saw significant gains, and the impact of anti-monopoly measures led some investors to take profits. Hang Seng Biotech, on the other hand, took over and performed exceptionally well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will remain the main battleground, and Hang Seng Technology and biotechnology will both perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs such as Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge Southern OP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been launched. Mainland investors can use these ETFs to purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index, thus addressing issues not covered by Hong Kong stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Investment restrictions on a large number of stocks, including Baidu, JD.com, and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) In terms of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if you want to outperform the Hang Seng Index, you should concentrate your positions on Hang Seng small-cap, small- and medium-cap, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap and medium-to-large-cap stocks. Currently, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. According to historical statistics, when the price-to-book difference between the two turns positive, the valuation correction ends (and often the end of a bull market). This also shows that the opportunities in the current market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, apart from the medical sector, the upstream of the cycle has shone brightly this year. Among them, the energy sector ranked first, the raw materials sector ranked third, and the integrated sector and Hang Seng Industrials also performed well. Lower-ranked industries include essential consumer goods, information technology, and finance. We remain very optimistic about resource commodities, as commodity prices have risen significantly compared to last year. For example, crude oil prices have reached a new high since the pandemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, it is highly likely that these sectors will perform well in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to statistics on the industry performance of 524 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal saw an astonishing increase, followed by steel, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel, media, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The sectors ranking last were mainly power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, general, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the prohibited investment list, the returns in the first half of the year were encouraging. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the companies under the ban would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list was 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecommunications operators and oil companies, still have low valuations and considerable room for growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: Cyclical advantage, catering/computer sector downgraded.</b></p><p>Profit Expectations: Comparing the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries, including steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank financial institutions, before and after the annual reports, the performance expectations of several sectors, including catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media, have been revised upward, while the performance expectations of several sectors have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue Forecast: Compared with the period before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue forecasts for several industries, including defense, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation, have been revised upwards. Revenue forecasts for industries such as catering and tourism, computers, and media have been revised downwards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation Comparison: Textiles and apparel hit a new high, while the real estate industry chain hit a new low.</b></p><p>Comparing data from the past five years, the current valuation percentile of the Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median). Among them, the textile and apparel, steel, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors are relatively high, while the real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank financial institutions, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation sectors are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Near-month capital inflows/outflows: Some midstream investors are still inflowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market.</p><p>Judging from recent capital inflows, many midstream sectors have seen further increased holdings, while the financial sector and cyclical upstream sectors are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure further demonstrates that the economic recovery is still underway rather than at its end. At the end of a bull market, the situation should be the opposite: midstream funds flow out, while large financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate their inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Investment Recommendations</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI rises, undervaluations will undergo a certain degree of valuation recovery. Compared to industries such as finance, real estate, utilities, and telecommunications operators, we believe that finance is superior. The reasons are a) Banks and securities firms made significant provisions in 2020, resulting in a more pronounced year-on-year improvement in their performance this year; b) They are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have boosted their earnings expectations; The real estate industry has higher land acquisition costs this year, reflected in a relatively high land premium, while the construction and installation costs are also relatively high given the high levels of commodities. Therefore, we believe that although real estate companies are currently valued lower, they are slightly less attractive than companies in the industry chain. The development of the construction industry is constrained by the scale of government investment, and its growth rate is expected to slow further in the future.</p><p>2. Looking at the second-quarter reports, cyclical industries, especially upstream companies, are more likely to exceed expectations. Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals will perform even better as commodity prices remain high (or even rise further). During this period, midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and home appliances may rise first and then fall, because rising commodity prices in the later stages of economic expansion have narrowed their profits, and the transmission of prices downstream is not as easy as in the early and mid-stages of economic expansion.</p><p>3. During this economic cycle, due to the combined effects of the pandemic and economic transformation (dual circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and branded apparel, especially those unique companies in the Hong Kong stock market, will present good investment value in the past and in the future. Currently, Hang Seng Tech needs a rebound. We believe that the anti-monopoly pressure has been fully absorbed. In the first half of the year, the stock prices of biotechnology, medical devices, and textiles and apparel are not low, but they all have short-term catalysts, whether in terms of policy or performance. We believe that their performance is similar to that of the midstream. They will still perform well in Q3, while their attractiveness will decline in Q4 due to high valuations.</p><p>In summary, we believe that macro finance, upstream cyclical sectors, and Hang Seng Technology are the three sectors we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and textiles and apparel will also present trend opportunities around the time of the interim reports. Due to the recurring pandemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and a significant opportunity is expected to emerge in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", by Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>","source":"w19319","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock investment strategy for the second half of the year! The Hang Seng Index has a chance to challenge a new high this round.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">学恒的海外观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.<b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p>Despite the constant voices of Taper, resolving the issue will not be easy: on the one hand, short-term data such as US GDP, CPI, consumption, and house prices are constantly rising; on the other hand, the decline in real hourly wages, the slow recovery of jobs, the excessively high proportion of stocks in residents' wealth, and the potential negative impact of the Biden administration's tax increases on corporate investment and hiring all need to be fully considered by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, we do not believe that Taper will be achieved overnight; our preliminary assessment is that clearer signals will only emerge in Q4 2021/Q1 2022. The rapid rise in US Treasury yields at the beginning of the year has fully absorbed the impact of inflation. Although we believe that yields will continue to fluctuate upwards, we believe that 1.9-2.0% is the threshold for a turnaround in US stocks. Based on 2022 earnings, below 4,500 points (our target level for this round of US stock bull market), the S&P 500 is still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade and is not significantly overvalued.</p><p><b>Domestic: The market trend surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p>The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans corroborates that the economic cycle is still expanding. We preliminarily predict that output (year-on-year industrial added value) and M1 year-on-year will both begin to rebound in June and July.</p><p>Starting in June, the CPI and PPI will converge, meaning that the profitability of the manufacturing sector will improve. As the CPI gradually rises, market confidence will continue to rise.</p><p>Based on the past decade, the current valuation of A-shares is not high, and the valuation of most broad-based indices (in 2022) is only at the average level. Therefore, we believe that during the period of economic cycle expansion, the market is expected to break through this new high, with a target level of 4200-4300 points in the second half of the year.</p><p>In terms of growth potential, scientific and technological innovation and cyclical development have an advantage; Judging from the interim results, the cycle is better; From a valuation perspective, the financial sector has a greater appeal.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stock investment advice: Momentum has been building for a long time, challenging new highs</b></p><p>We have adjusted the target range of 31,000-32,000 points for the Hang Seng Index in 2021, which means that the Hang Seng Index has the opportunity to challenge a new high in this round;</p><p>We believe that while the market will rise in the second half of the year, it will also be accompanied by rotation. Sectors with strong interim reports or other fundamental drivers are mainly textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, metals, and energy. Secondly, Hang Seng Technology and the financial sector are expected to report in line with expectations, but their stock prices have been oversold, which will also lead to a significant valuation recovery.</p><p>After the second quarter earnings report or Q4, some sectors are overvalued. Coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the year-end taper and liquidity, risk appetite cannot continue to improve. At this time, it is advisable to pay attention to resource stocks that may continue to rise in price, undervalued bank stocks, gaming stocks with lagging recovery expectations, as well as telecommunications operators and Hong Kong stocks that have less impact on the economic cycle.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p><b>I. Global: It's too early to discuss TAPER; US stocks remain in a slow bull market.</b></p><p><b>1. By the end of the year, vaccination rates in some countries will exceed 70%.</b></p><p>Global new COVID-19 cases have recently stabilized at 300,000-400,000 per day, a significant decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with major developed countries experiencing a significant decrease in new cases compared to the beginning of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef09015d57bc577bb7a93bb846c2381\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4256b27b5673e8fb532e714b91541b91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Entering May and June, according to data from our world in data, vaccination rates (per dose) in some countries accelerated significantly. At the current rate, before winter, most eligible countries could achieve vaccination rates exceeding 70%, which is the level recognized by the WHO.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Vaccination rate level of immunization effect. China's vaccination rate is even more astonishing, currently exceeding 1 billion doses, with 20 million doses administered daily, and it is expected to reach a vaccination rate of over 70% by the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba455f4b2fc4f3e96e0539d81b0cb3f3\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. The World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%.</b></p><p><b>1) Upward revision of the global economy in 2021</b></p><p>In January, the World Bank predicted that global GDP growth would be only 4.1%. In June, the World Bank revised its global GDP growth forecast upward to 5.6%, marking the strongest recovery from recession in 80 years, primarily driven by economic growth of 6.8% in the United States and 8.5% in China. The IMF is more optimistic, believing that global GDP growth will reach 6% (its initial forecast for the year was 5.15%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507d0e153840bb4f705f60f90a813461\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both have similar expectations for China's economic growth rate: the World Bank expects China's GDP growth rate to be 8.5% in 2021, and the IMF expects it to be 8.4%. The World Bank expects U.S. GDP growth to be 6.8% in 2021, while the IMF forecasts 6.4%.</p><p><b>2) The GDP gap between China and the United States is narrowing.</b></p><p>During the pandemic, China's GDP continued to grow, while the US GDP declined, narrowing the GDP gap between China and the US. In 2020, the GDP gap between China and the US was 30%. The IMF estimates that, without considering the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the GDP gap between China and the US will narrow to 16% by 2026. This figure was 60% in 2010 and 40% in 2016.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444982fe1c0d1748b4110b2b21b14e4\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against the backdrop of a narrowing GDP gap between the two countries, the US government has frequently released various pressures on China since Biden took office as US president. On June 8, the U.S. Senate passed the American Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. CNN reported that the bill aims to invest more than $200 billion in U.S. technology, science, and research to counter China's growing influence.</p><p>On the other hand, the \"2021 White Paper on U.S. Companies in China\" released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in June shows that the Chinese market remains highly attractive to U.S. companies. More than half (52%) of U.S. companies operating in China cited China's biggest business opportunity as \"growth in domestic consumption and the rise of a growing wealthy middle class,\" more than two-thirds of U.S. companies consider China a priority market, and 85% of U.S. companies do not intend to move their manufacturing or procurement processes outside of China. The white paper also shows that nearly 61% of American companies believe that China will continue to open its market to foreign investment. American companies are gaining a greater sense of gain in China; for example, in the financial sector, American companies have obtained licenses to conduct comprehensive business in China. In the food and agriculture sectors, China has amended regulations to allow more American products to enter China, among other things.</p><p><b>3. The US economic cycle is still in the expansion phase.</b></p><p><b>1) Implications of the US Economic Framework: The Balance Between Inflation and Stagflation</b></p><p>In the US economic framework, it takes two or three quarters for interest rate policy or personal income to be transmitted to consumer spending. Then, rising consumption will lead to an improvement in industrial production and services, as well as increased corporate profits, which takes another one or two quarters.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a2af46ec117739d1459c097dde5dde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Then, anticipating an upward trend in the future economy, companies began to increase capital expenditures and actively recruit workers (this was 2-4 quarters later), thereby driving up inflation. At this point, the Federal Reserve intervened to control inflation in order to ensure the healthy development of the economy.</p><p>In this system, intervention too late could lead to inflation. But intervening too early could nip a newly recovering economy in the bud. How to judge this pace has always been a \"huge question.\" On the left is inflation, on the right is deflation, and the government and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>We must walk carefully on the balance beam.</p><p><b>2) Some contradictions in current US economic data</b></p><p>On the one hand, the consumption and output prosperity in the United States is undoubtedly on the rise: personal consumption expenditures are rising (also due to the low base last year), while the consumer confidence index has recovered to its best level since the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c984927723e729dc26b3d0bd56102c50\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The manufacturing PMI fluctuated upwards, while the services PMI in May had already surpassed its pre-pandemic high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06899913e56c9f14274fd575748c7073\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Existing home sales hit a ten-year high year-on-year, housing prices are rising rapidly, and many American media outlets are reporting on the ubiquitous phenomena of \"hard to find a house\" and \"high prices for buying a house\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22aaa51435ed2745ae7fe639f3f719f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, market expectations for US macroeconomic data have been continuously revised upward for several months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/789c9420c8b167c7a431c7aaa52e412c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c4a3e4d8c168ad26cc85898a91521\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, behind the impressive data, there are also many hidden concerns:</p><p><b>One is the decline in real hourly wages.</b>Since real hourly wages determine consumers' real purchasing power, during this economic recovery, the inability of supply-side production capacity to keep up in time and the rise in commodity prices caused by excessive dollar issuance drove the CPI to strengthen first, resulting in an increase in nominal hourly wages while a decrease in real hourly wages. Historically, real hourly wages have been a relatively reliable leading indicator of consumer spending in the United States (of course, this is mainly based on relatively stable employment conditions), but the current trend is unclear.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5574774b629c3937a2d6c41738554902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recovery of employment still needs to be observed.</b>According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused 22 million Americans to lose their jobs. So far, it has only recovered to 67% of pre-pandemic levels, leaving an employment gap of 8 million. In April, new non-farm payrolls in the United States fell significantly short of market expectations, and May only met low expectations. Some analysts believe that the cash-based subsidies have resulted in low-income groups earning roughly the same amount of money when working as when not working, which has made it difficult for some companies to find employees, ultimately leading to their closure and bankruptcy again. According to CNBC, in the past month, 25 states have announced that they will terminate their additional welfare programs during the pandemic before they officially expire on September 6. Some states will stop paying additional federal unemployment benefits as early as June 12. These states are all led by Republican governors. They stated that the additional unemployment benefits are leading unemployed workers to stay at home rather than look for work, making it difficult for companies to hire workers to fill urgently needed vacancies. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Chief Policy Officer Bradley believes, \"The disappointing jobs report clearly shows that paying wages to people who don't work is dampening what should be a stronger job market.\" The overall impact of ending federal unemployment benefits on subsequent employment is positive, but the effects remain to be seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28525bd8d2b0a12655fff844c305910b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Thirdly, there are expectations regarding tax increases by the Biden administration.</b>While we expect this plan to be quite difficult to implement, and to ensure the midterm elections, the Democrats are unlikely to make much progress on this issue before the 2022 midterm elections. However, the expectation of tax increases will affect companies' human resource planning to some extent. U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Clark stated that he disagrees with the government on the necessity of raising business taxes: “The proposed tax increase plan will significantly harm the interests of American businesses and American workers. Now is certainly not the time to erect new obstacles to economic recovery. The government is right to advocate for infrastructure, and we want to work with the government on this, but there are other ways to fund infrastructure projects.” The U.S. Chamber of Commerce expressed support for infrastructure investment but preferred to primarily fund it through infrastructure usage fees. McGinty, a spokesperson for the National Retail Federation, said in a report submitted to the U.S. Senate Finance Committee that the organization opposed raising funds for infrastructure programs by increasing corporate taxes. In addition, McGinty, a spokesperson for the Retail Leaders Association of America, also stated that the association's position against raising taxes on businesses has not changed.</p><p><b>Fourthly, the US stock market accounts for an excessively high proportion of residents' assets, and a decline in the stock market will severely dampen residents' enthusiasm for consumption.</b>There are two types of wealth and stock assets related to American residents: direct investment and retirement plans (which ultimately enter the stock and bond markets). These two types account for an astonishing 57% of residents' wealth (the highest level in history), compared to real estate, the largest type of wealth for Chinese residents, which accounts for only 24% of American residents' assets. Historically, consumption and the stock market have been mutually reinforcing: stock market decline → residents' wealth shrink → consumption becomes more conservative → corporate profits decline → stock market decline. Currently, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is approximately $45 trillion, which is about 202% of the expected U.S. GDP for 2021 ($22.2 trillion). According to Rastverd's estimate in \"The Inevitable Economic Cycle,\" a stock market decline would have an impact factor of about 4% on GDP. That is, if the US stock market falls by 20% (this is only a Kitchen cycle-level adjustment), the negative impact of a single stock market decline on GDP could reach 202% * 20% * 4% = -1.6%. This does not take into account the spillover effects such as shrinking corporate capital expenditures, inventory impairment, and the real estate market downturn. Generally speaking, during a significant stock market decline (e.g., a one-third to one-half drop) and the real estate market is also affected (e.g., a one-fifth to one-third drop), the overall impact on that year's GDP is approximately -15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382235a0385c82b548308426f12a5ca7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at the April FOMC press conference that the Fed \"<b>This will ensure that monetary policy continues to provide strong support to the economy until the recovery is complete.</b>”。 Currently, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of QE at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting in August. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that the Federal Reserve may announce a strategy to reduce its large-scale bond-buying program in August or September, but is not expected to begin reducing monthly purchases until early next year.</p><p>We reiterate this view: given the current state of the U.S. economy, once TAPER is implemented, the moderate recovery may end. Therefore, it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to continue to pay cautious attention to inflation (Q2/Q3), employment data (June, July, and August), and especially the impact on employment after some state governments canceled bailouts in July and August.</p><p><b>3) The flattening of US Treasury bonds indicates that market expectations for inflation have been digested.</b></p><p>Although both the US CPI and core CPI hit new highs in May, inflation expectations (10-year US Treasury yield - 10-year TIPS yield) fell, while the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated and remained flat. This indicates that inflation expectations have been digested by the market, and the next step is to continue monitoring the inflation level in the third quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcb17db63daecb5e450b90e31da6b24d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We have quantitatively calculated the key positions where the current rise in US Treasury yields will have an impact on the stock market. The method is to observe the impact of the number and magnitude of rate hike in historical interest rate hike cycles (the target federal funds rate remains unchanged in this round, which is slightly different from history, but the rise in market interest rates is the same) on the stock market peaking. We calculated the result: the US bull market came to an end when the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 1.9-2.0%.</p><p><b>4. The upward trend in commodities will continue.</b></p><p>We are pleased to recall that in our annual strategy report released in 2019, prior to the launch of this round of commodity cycles, we mentioned: \"The global medium-cycle – real estate cycle and commodity cycle are both in the expansion phase, while the short-cycle – Kitchen cycle has also hit a low point and is turning to expansion. The combined effect of the medium-cycle and short-cycle cycles will drive up the prices of cyclical assets.\" So far, our assessment that the global economy is in an expansion phase remains unchanged.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f69ac8fd633ab057903ac98c0ff9bd7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Given that the average expansion time of the commodity cycle is 24-26 months, this round of upward movement in commodities will end in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, we compared the relationship between the commodity index and the S&P 500. Similar to A-shares, the S&P 500 leads the CRB index by about 0-3 months (just as the Shanghai Composite Index leads the PPI). Therefore, we preliminarily estimate that US stocks will rise until around the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>US stocks are still operating within the valuation framework of the past decade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c409da511bbb7b9010d35341123123e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the upward revision of economic expectations, the S&P 500's net profit has also been revised upwards. The market currently expects the S&P 500 EPS growth rate to be 40% and 9% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. ROE were 19.7% and 19.4%, respectively; EPS was 194,211 respectively (compared to only 170,197 when we wrote our strategy report at the end of last year, representing upward revisions of 14% and 7% respectively).</p><p>As we have previously mentioned, the US Treasury yield is currently lower than before the pandemic. Based on the PE ceiling of the S&P 500 from 2008 to 2019, a PE ratio of 21.4-21.5 times (excluding the extreme impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic), giving the S&P 500 a target price would yield:</p><p>SPX target price 2021=194*21.4=4151 points;</p><p>If we consider switching the valuation to 2022, we can obtain:</p><p>SPX target price 2022=211*21.4=4515 points;</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that in the next two years, before the S&P 500 fluctuates upwards and reaches 4,500 points, US stocks will still operate within the valuation channel of the past decade and are not significantly overvalued. Of course, discussing overvaluation inevitably requires discussing US Treasury yields, TAPER versus QE, and the position of the economic cycle, issues we have already explained earlier.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c227e1cc13a265388c5f10645737f46\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. A-shares: The rally surrounding the second-quarter earnings report has begun.</b></p><p><b>1. The increase in medium- and long-term corporate loans proves that the economy is still expanding.</b></p><p>In May, M2 stopped declining year-on-year and began to show signs of stabilizing at the bottom. Medium- and long-term loans continued to maintain very steady growth, indicating strong credit demand in the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d13ac00c05eda5dbb8e68726c0f726d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Breaking down the social financing accounts, local government special bonds, corporate bonds, and trust loans have seen the most significant declines recently. The decline in corporate bonds is due to the central government's requirement this year to effectively resolve the risks of local government hidden debt, and the joint efforts of multiple departments to strengthen supervision and curb the growth of hidden debt. Local government special bonds have decreased slightly by 280 billion yuan this year compared to last year. Referring to the Ministry of Finance's recent quota of 4,267.6 billion yuan for new local government debt in 2021 (of which 800 billion yuan is for general debt and 3,467.6 billion yuan is for special debt), this is lower than the 4.47 trillion yuan budget previously approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress (of which 3.75 trillion yuan is for special debt). The decline in trust loans is inevitable. This year is the last year of the transition period for the new asset management regulations, and the trust industry is still searching for transformation and innovation. Therefore, this year's social financing is characterized by a slowdown in financing demand from government and local government financing platforms, suppression of real estate/trust financing, and strong loan demand from the manufacturing sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845a54283fd13c73447217a3dbe8b53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We estimate that the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added have either reached or are close to their annual lows and will rise along with the upward trend of the economic cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533c0d730d72abbfdc5353dd14f6d770\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Fiscal deposits are not included in M2 (May last year coincided with the peak period of fiscal deposits), so we believe that the greater decline in social financing than in M2 is temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a462618d750770032e117dc050724701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, domestic liquidity is relatively loose, MLF has not increased since the pandemic last year, wealth management yields continue to decline, and credit spreads are declining (AA+, with AAA being more pronounced than AA).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/403868625533e7493faa8e6a393fe62e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Starting in June, the gap between CPI and PPI will narrow.</b></p><p>In the first half of this year, the PPI faced significant upward pressure. During the tracking process in the first few months, we also felt that the PPI rise repeatedly exceeded market expectations. May last year was the lowest point of the year for the PPI, so from a pattern perspective, it is undoubtedly true that the PPI has started to decline since June.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f3ed224ba421077d14bb149aaadba9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the beginning of this year, the CPI has been dragged down to some extent by the decline in pork prices. However, when looking at the categories, transportation and communications, education, culture and entertainment, housing, and food, tobacco and alcohol have all begun to show significant improvements month-on-month. We estimate that the CPI will remain resilient and steadily rise in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e7d6b010c508c34a936f1c6c30c502f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the other hand, the decline in PPI represents an easing of inflationary pressures, which is conducive to the recovery of manufacturing profits. However, this does not mean the disappearance of inflationary pressures. Because in a commodity cycle, as demand improves, supply-side production capacity cannot expand significantly in a short period. Moreover, the current inventory of cyclical goods is generally low, and as inventory is reduced, commodity prices still have room to rise further.</p><p><b>3. A-share valuations are not high; focus on sectors with upward revisions to interim earnings forecasts.</b></p><p><b>1) Overall, the current valuation of A-shares is not high.</b></p><p>Let's use the valuation levels of the past decade as a reference to observe the current valuation level of A-shares.</p><p>Wind All A is currently valued at 20.3 times. If valuation switching is considered, the PE level will fall back to the average in 2022 along with the growth of performance. The CSI 300 is currently valued at 14.5 times. If a valuation shift is considered, the PE ratio will fall back to the average level in 2022 along with the growth in performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85ce88cba8d0e32d600ac041e40ba96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.2 times, which is at the average level. If valuation switching is considered, the corresponding PE ratio in 2022 will be lower than the average. The current valuation level of the ChiNext market is slightly higher at 59.0 times, but it is still below +1 standard deviation. Because the growth rate of the ChiNext market is higher, its corresponding PE ratio in 2022 is lower than the average, taking into account the valuation shift.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c5057cc381cafd3af77d267f468623\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current valuation of the CSI 500 is at a low level among all major broad-based indices, with a valuation of only -1 standard deviation of the average. If the growth rate in 2022 is taken into account, it is below -1 standard deviation. The valuation level of the SSE 50 is relatively high, and considering the growth in 2022, the valuation level is slightly higher than the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6717030e153e34f4d57acbfb01d4b00\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In summary, looking at the A-share market over a ten-year cycle, the current valuation level is not high, and once a valuation shift is considered in the second half of the year, the current valuation will only be at the historical average level. If we calculate the upside potential of A-shares, we use the usual Shanghai Composite Index at its highest level of 16-16.2 times PE at the beginning of the year. Considering factors including the valuation shift in 2022, we estimate the upside target range to be approximately 4200-4300 points. The above considerations are based on the scenario where the economic cycle expansion is not yet over, and the main driving force for the upward trend comes from improved performance rather than valuation expansion.<b>From the perspective of broad-based indices, the CSI 500 is more attractive than the valuations of the CSI 300 and SSE 50.</b></p><p><b>2) In terms of growth potential, science and technology innovation and cyclical economies have seen more significant earnings growth this year.</b></p><p>In terms of performance growth, the STAR Market has the highest growth rate among broad-based indices this year, with a growth rate of 70% in 2021 compared to 2020. This is followed by small-cap companies, such as the CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext 50. Considering the current valuation level and rebound, the STAR Market and CSI 500 offer good value for money. In terms of style, the profit growth rate of cyclical industries remains undeniable this year, with a year-on-year increase of 82%, outperforming growth (74%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8427a42d4a8c2422e6397f9c3383f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>From an industry perspective, in addition to transportation, media, consumer services, and retail, which had a low base last year, the fastest-growing industries this year include non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals. In addition, computers, basic chemicals, electronics, and automobiles also ranked high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7aa967da566899dc1b91a298dc9aa22\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3) From the perspective of expected adjustments, cyclical industries have a greater advantage.</b></p><p>Following the annual reports (April 30), the STAR Market 50 and CSI 500 were expected to see the largest upward revisions among all broad-based indices, while the Shanghai Composite Index was also revised upward by 1%, ranking third. The ChiNext, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 ranked in the bottom three, respectively. When comparing styles, cyclical sectors saw the largest increase in performance, while growth sectors saw the largest downward revision. This slightly contradicts our observation in the previous table. Although growth stocks have the fastest growth rate, the downward revision of earnings after the annual report indicates that the current upward trend in growth stocks is differentiated rather than widespread, while the decline in cyclical industries is temporary. With the second quarter report approaching, we believe that opportunities in cyclical industries will be more certain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b1a8759585b1503e5b5c338732eb47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After comparing the annual reports, the performance adjustment rankings by industry are as follows: steel, consumer services, automobiles, and transportation, petroleum, and petrochemicals rank first, while machinery, non-ferrous metals, coal, and light manufacturing also saw certain upward adjustments. The following sectors rank last: commerce and retail, media, general, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communications, and computers.</p><p>In this ranking, we believe it is still necessary to discuss commodity prices. For example, if the prices of base metals, coal, and crude oil rise, it will put profit pressure on midstream industries that are sensitive to raw materials, such as steel, automobiles, machinery, light industry, chemicals, and home appliances. If prices in the upstream of the cycle remain stable or decline, the profit growth rate of these industries may continue to be revised upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab95b14ca44af05bd3574782eb630fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our attitude is that the current economic cycle is not over yet, and the core variables of rising commodity prices, such as the relatively limited capacity expansion over 7-10 consecutive years, have not changed. Assuming that downstream output continues to rise, the upward pressure on upstream raw materials will always exist. Therefore,<b>Regarding sector earnings forecasts, we tend to believe that the interim results of cyclical upstream sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and coal are more certain.</b></p><p><b>4) From a valuation perspective, the valuation recovery potential of the financial sector should not be ignored.</b></p><p>According to the understanding of the economic cycle, when the CPI rises and market yields rise, the financial industry is expected to improve its profitability due to the increase in interest rate spreads. Therefore, undervalued financial institutions are expected to recover in the second half of the year. We place the primary industry in the PE/PB percentile matrix for observation. Currently, the PB valuation of bank stocks is at a historical low, and we expect the ROE of the banking industry to increase relatively significantly year-on-year in Q2 this year (compared to the projected increase starting in Q2 last year). The insurance industry has had poor premium income this year, but due to the sector's lack of performance over the past two years, the poor fundamentals have been fully absorbed into the stock price, and there is room for valuation recovery in the second half of the year. Securities firms have experienced a year of weak fluctuations since July of last year, and their current valuations are also very low (together with insurance, they are below the 10th percentile historically). Considering the advancement of the domestic registration-based IPO system and the fact that securities firms have better asset quality than insurance and banking companies, we believe this sector will also perform well in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb102b56576b2cd57a6eae54e0b220\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Comprehensive growth potential, expectation adjustments, and valuation.<b>We are optimistic about the Science and Technology Innovation Board, upstream cyclical sectors, and the financial sector as our top picks for the second half of the year. Meanwhile, based on our previous calculations, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to a height of 4200-4300 points within the year.</b></p><p><b>III. Hong Kong Stocks: Preparing for a Long Time, Challenging New Highs</b></p><p><b>1. The Hang Seng Index is expected to break through this new high in the second half of 2021.</b></p><p>The market expects the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to grow by 11% in EPS in 2021 and -2% in 2022. This performance is not as good as that of A-shares, but its revenue side is not bad, with year-on-year growth rates of 19% and 12%, respectively. Some large internet companies are still focusing on revenue growth rather than profits this year, which is part of the reason. In addition, the high proportion of real estate and finance in the Hang Seng Index has also dragged down profit growth to some extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d2c33a8ab907c4dbbc675ba9d18aff\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The chart below shows the historical price-to-book range of the Hang Seng Index (HSI). We use this to calculate the target level for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecfb432d4084946f04aa13b02bf99f2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In a previous report, we explained that, based on historical volatility, net assets are more stable (compared to EPS and Dividend). Therefore, we typically consider price-to-book (PB) valuation or Dividend ratio when predicting the lows or highs of the Hang Seng Index. We use the increase in price-to-book ratio during each round of Kitchen cycle expansion to estimate the upper limit of price-to-book ratio of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of 2021 using the median.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1790400270c6074c7d80d6f82d5782e6\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since 2002, the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio (PB) has expanded by 49%, 85%, 74%, 29%, and 63% respectively in each Kitchen cycle, with a median of 63% and an average of 60%. We have obtained a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.39 times for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year.</p><p>PB2021 upper limit = 0.87 * (1 + 60%) = 1.39</p><p>Based on analysts' expectations of 21,784 points and 23,387 points for net assets in 2021-2022, the target level for the Hang Seng Index is:</p><p>Neutral: 21784 (BPS2021)*1.39=30,374 points;</p><p>Optimistic (considering the valuation switch to 2022): 23,387 (BPS2022) * 1.39 = 32,610 points.</p><p><b>Therefore, we believe that the target price for the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the year will be around 31,000-32,000 points, which means it has the potential to hit a new high in this round.</b></p><p><b>2. Review of the trend in the first half of the year</b></p><p>In our \"2020 Hong Kong Stock Summary\" at the beginning of the year, we summarized five key directions: \"Looking ahead to 2021, the likely directions for finding excess returns are: 1. The new economy remains the main battleground, especially investment targets interfered with by anti-monopoly policies and US policies, which will present opportunities for 'panic, wrongful sell-off, and new highs'; 2. Newly listed stocks will bring more investment leads; 3. Rising risk appetite will help converge valuations of all sizes.\" 4. Cyclical sectors will narrow the performance gap between sectors as the pandemic recovers; 5. The implementation of the US investment ban will bring valuation repair opportunities to the listed companies.</p><p><b>review: In the first half of this year, Hong Kong stocks experienced three stages: rise, fall, and rebound.</b></p><p>The first phase, before the Spring Festival, saw technology and biotechnology stocks take the lead, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29% at its peak.</p><p>The second phase, from after the Spring Festival to early May, saw a sharp pullback/retracement in the Hang Seng Tech Index, driven by the rapid rise in US Treasury yields and the impact of internet anti-monopoly measures. The yield fell from 29% to -11%, and the Hang Seng Index fell below 28,000 points.</p><p>The third phase is from late May to June. As US Treasury yields stabilized and the market continued to absorb the many impacts of anti-monopoly measures, major indices began to rebound. The best performer was the biotechnology sector (25%), followed by Hong Kong local stocks (9%), and then the Hong Kong Stock Connect (7%). The China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech underperformed the Hang Seng Index.</p><p>1) From the perspective of mainland investors, Hong Kong stocks, as a supplement to the A-share market, and Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotech are the two sectors that investors are most concerned about. Last year, Hang Seng Technologies saw significant gains, and the impact of anti-monopoly measures led some investors to take profits. Hang Seng Biotech, on the other hand, took over and performed exceptionally well. We believe that in the long run, the new economy will remain the main battleground, and Hang Seng Technology and biotechnology will both perform well. In May, E Fund<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03032\">Hang Seng Technology ETF</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03088\">Huaxia Hang Seng Technology</a>ETFs such as Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huaan Hang Seng Technology ETF, Huatai-PineBridge Southern OP Hang Seng Technology ETF, Bosera Hang Seng Technology ETF, and Harvest Hang Seng Technology ETF have all been launched. Mainland investors can use these ETFs to purchase the Hang Seng Technology Index, thus addressing issues not covered by Hong Kong stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Investment restrictions on a large number of stocks, including Baidu, JD.com, and Bilibili.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68eb45ddb4ce3535a01e50d120d05fbb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2) In terms of style, it can be seen that since the beginning of the year, if you want to outperform the Hang Seng Index, you should concentrate your positions on Hang Seng small-cap, small- and medium-cap, and mid-cap stocks, rather than large-cap and medium-to-large-cap stocks. Currently, the valuations of Hang Seng large-cap stocks and Hang Seng small-cap stocks are still converging. According to historical statistics, when the price-to-book difference between the two turns positive, the valuation correction ends (and often the end of a bull market). This also shows that the opportunities in the current market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/243c73a9ab5bd7175cf2bbb9696c2a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>3) From an industry perspective, apart from the medical sector, the upstream of the cycle has shone brightly this year. Among them, the energy sector ranked first, the raw materials sector ranked third, and the integrated sector and Hang Seng Industrials also performed well. Lower-ranked industries include essential consumer goods, information technology, and finance. We remain very optimistic about resource commodities, as commodity prices have risen significantly compared to last year. For example, crude oil prices have reached a new high since the pandemic, the CRB index has risen by 50% year-on-year, copper prices have risen by 93% year-on-year, and aluminum prices have risen by 65% year-on-year. Therefore, it is highly likely that these sectors will perform well in the second quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f39b662e4346eb7fe12c2a1c4e0ee3a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4) According to statistics on the industry performance of 524 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, coal saw an astonishing increase, followed by steel, basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles and apparel, media, non-ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The sectors ranking last were mainly power equipment, building materials, catering and tourism, defense and military industry, non-bank finance, home appliances, automobiles, general, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f41709bcfaf17d58d7bc64db1f58f10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"511\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5) From the perspective of the prohibited investment list, the returns in the first half of the year were encouraging. At the beginning of the year, we judged that the companies under the ban would perform well this year. As of June 2021, the average increase of companies on the banned investment list was 35%, with a median of 19%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index. Nevertheless, we believe that many of these companies, such as telecommunications operators and oil companies, still have low valuations and considerable room for growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb224b98db6f930b71d86e0064aa51e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1068\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Changes in market expectations: Cyclical advantage, catering/computer sector downgraded.</b></p><p>Profit Expectations: Comparing the 2021 net profit expectations of several industries, including steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, banking, home appliances, electronic components, construction, and non-bank financial institutions, before and after the annual reports, the performance expectations of several sectors, including catering and tourism, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, building materials, food and beverage, commerce and retail, communications, and media, have been revised upward, while the performance expectations of several sectors have been revised downward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a90ee526b9ce63212c201fa34bcf95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Revenue Forecast: Compared with the period before and after the annual report, the 2021 revenue forecasts for several industries, including defense, steel, building materials, home appliances, coal, automobiles, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronic components, and transportation, have been revised upwards. Revenue forecasts for industries such as catering and tourism, computers, and media have been revised downwards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9b63b0b8664d387a63e0adadb04454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Valuation Comparison: Textiles and apparel hit a new high, while the real estate industry chain hit a new low.</b></p><p>Comparing data from the past five years, the current valuation percentile of the Hong Kong Stock Connect is 24% (median). Among them, the textile and apparel, steel, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors are relatively high, while the real estate, construction, building materials, light manufacturing, non-bank financial institutions, media, catering and tourism, home appliances, and transportation sectors are significantly lower than the average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebbf6b4ade68ddd8330d2405d7ca52b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Near-month capital inflows/outflows: Some midstream investors are still inflowing in, indicating that the market is still in a bull market.</p><p>Judging from recent capital inflows, many midstream sectors have seen further increased holdings, while the financial sector and cyclical upstream sectors are temporarily weak. In fact, this structure further demonstrates that the economic recovery is still underway rather than at its end. At the end of a bull market, the situation should be the opposite: midstream funds flow out, while large financial and cyclical upstream funds accelerate their inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfeea16da7ba61796acf24bcae1f0cb2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Investment Recommendations</b></p><p>1. Overall, when the CPI rises, undervaluations will undergo a certain degree of valuation recovery. Compared to industries such as finance, real estate, utilities, and telecommunications operators, we believe that finance is superior. The reasons are a) Banks and securities firms made significant provisions in 2020, resulting in a more pronounced year-on-year improvement in their performance this year; b) They are undervalued; c) Widening interest rate spreads have boosted their earnings expectations; The real estate industry has higher land acquisition costs this year, reflected in a relatively high land premium, while the construction and installation costs are also relatively high given the high levels of commodities. Therefore, we believe that although real estate companies are currently valued lower, they are slightly less attractive than companies in the industry chain. The development of the construction industry is constrained by the scale of government investment, and its growth rate is expected to slow further in the future.</p><p>2. Looking at the second-quarter reports, cyclical industries, especially upstream companies, are more likely to exceed expectations. Sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals will perform even better as commodity prices remain high (or even rise further). During this period, midstream sectors such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and home appliances may rise first and then fall, because rising commodity prices in the later stages of economic expansion have narrowed their profits, and the transmission of prices downstream is not as easy as in the early and mid-stages of economic expansion.</p><p>3. During this economic cycle, due to the combined effects of the pandemic and economic transformation (dual circulation), consumer stocks represented by Hang Seng Technology, biotechnology, and branded apparel, especially those unique companies in the Hong Kong stock market, will present good investment value in the past and in the future. Currently, Hang Seng Tech needs a rebound. We believe that the anti-monopoly pressure has been fully absorbed. In the first half of the year, the stock prices of biotechnology, medical devices, and textiles and apparel are not low, but they all have short-term catalysts, whether in terms of policy or performance. We believe that their performance is similar to that of the midstream. They will still perform well in Q3, while their attractiveness will decline in Q4 due to high valuations.</p><p>In summary, we believe that macro finance, upstream cyclical sectors, and Hang Seng Technology are the three sectors we are optimistic about in the second half of the year. In addition, new energy, semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and textiles and apparel will also present trend opportunities around the time of the interim reports. Due to the recurring pandemic, the recovery of the gaming sector will take time, and a significant opportunity is expected to emerge in Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99730b5306b832b0265537f4b7424a7d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>V. Risk Warning</b></p><p>The risks include a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, a recurrence of the pandemic, uncertainty in Sino-US trade relations, and a technology war.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6b690532d93e57e2dac2a054def226\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>This article is selected from \"Xueheng's Overseas Observations\", by Wang Xueheng; Zhitong Finance Editor: Zhuang Lijia.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw\">学恒的海外观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02833":"恒指ETF","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/FsSR-qGJ0tGYdcy0OSIdFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154941861","content_text":"从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n\n摘要\n全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n尽管Taper的声音不绝于耳，但靴子落地并非易事：一方面，美国短期的GDP，CPI，消费，房价等数据在不断的上行，另一方面，实际时薪的下降，就业岗位恢复较慢，居民财富中股票占比过高，拜登政府加税可能带来对企业投资与招聘的负面影响，都需要被美联储充分考虑。因此，我们不认为Taper是一蹴而就的，初步判断在2021年Q4/2022年Q1才会有更加明晰的信号;美债收益率在年初的上行过快，充分消化了通胀的影响，尽管我们判断收益率依然震荡上行，但我们认为1.9-2.0%才是美股转向的阈值。以2022年的盈利作为依据，在4500点以下(本轮美股牛市我们的目标位)，标普依然运行在过去十年的估值框架里而并未大幅高估。\n国内：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济周期尚在扩张中，我们初步判断产量(工业增加值同比)、M1同比，都将在6、7月份开始反弹。\n从6月开始，CPI与PPI将收敛，意味着制造业的盈利将有所改善。伴随着CPI的逐渐上行，市场的信心也将不断被提升。\n以过去十年为参照，当下A股的估值并不高，大多宽基指数的估值(2022年)仅为平均值水平。因此，我们认为在经济周期扩张的时期，大盘有望突破本轮新高，下半年目标位4200-4300点。\n从成长性看，科创与周期占优;从中报业绩看，周期更佳;从估值看，大金融更有新引力。\n港股投资建议：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n我们调整恒生指数2021年31000-32000点的目标区间，意味着恒指有机会挑战本轮新高;\n我们认为下半年大盘上行的同时，也会伴随轮动的局面。半年报较优或者其他基本面驱动的板块主要为纺织服装、医药、金属、能源，其次，恒生科技、大金融中报预计符合预期而股价超跌，也将会有明显的估值修复。\n二季报之后或者Q4，部分板块的估值过高，加之距离年底taper以及资金面的不确定性，使得风险偏好无法持续提升，此时当关注价格可能持续上行的资源股、低估值的银行股、复苏预期滞后博彩股，以及经济周期影响较小的电信运营商和香港本地股。\n风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n正文\n一、全球：讨论TAPER尚早，美股依然在慢牛中\n1、到年底部分国家接种率将超过七成\n全球新增疫情最近稳定在每天30-40万例，较年初有明显下降，其中主要发达国家新增病例较年初下降明显。\n\n进入到5、6月份，根据our world in data的数据，部分国家的接种率(一剂)明显加速提升，按照当下的速度，在入冬之前，大部分有条件的国家，接种率能超过70%，即世卫组织认可的全民免疫效果的接种率水平。中国接种疫苗的速度更加惊人，目前已经超过了10亿剂次，每天以2000万的接种，预计也将在年底之前达到70%以上的接种率。\n\n2、世界银行上修全球GDP增速至5.6%\n1）2021年全球经济的上修\n世界银行1月份时预计全球GDP增速只有4.1%。6月，世界银行将全球GDP增速上修至5.6%，这是80 年来从衰退中取得的最强复苏，主要是受到美国和中国经济分别增长 6.8% 和 8.5% 的推动。IMF则更加乐观一些，认为全球GDP增速将达到6%(其年初的预期是5.15%)。\n\n两者对中国经济的增速的预期相当，世界银行预期中国2021年GDP增速为8.5%，IMF预期为8.4%;世界银行预期美国2021年GDP增速为6.8%，IMF预期为6.4%。\n2）中美的GDP差距缩小\n疫情期间，中国的GDP继续增长，美国GDP下滑，这缩小了中美GDP的差距，以(美国-中国)/美国表示差距的话，2020年，中美GDP差距为30%，IMF估计，不考虑人民币兑美元汇率的影响，到2026年，中美GDP差距将缩减至16%，该数字在2010年为60%，在2016年时缩小到了40%。\n\n在两国GDP缩小差距的背景下，自拜登就任美国总统之后，美国政府对中国频频释放各类压力。6月8日，美国国会参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法》，美国有线电视新闻网称该法案意在向美国技术、科学、研究领域投资逾2000亿美元，用来对抗中国日益增长的影响力。\n另一方面，中国美国商会6月发布的《2021年度美国企业在中国白皮书》显示，中国市场对美国企业仍具有强大吸引力。超过一半(52%)的在华美国企业提到，中国第一大商机是“国内消费的增长和日益庞大的富裕中产阶层的崛起”，超过三分之二的美国企业将中国视为优先市场，85%的美国企业并未打算将制造或采购工序迁往中国以外的地方。白皮书还显示，近61%的美国企业相信中国将继续向外资开放市场。美国企业在中国的获得感进一步增强，如在金融领域，美国公司已经获得了在中国开展全方位业务的许可;在食品和农业领域，中国修改了法规，允许更多的美国产品进入中国等。\n3、美国经济周期尚在扩张阶段\n1）美国经济框架的启示：通胀与滞胀中的平衡\n在美国的经济框架中，利率政策或者个人收入传导给消费支出，这需要2、3个季度，然后消费的上升将带来工业生产、服务的景气度提升，以及企业盈利的提升，此间又需要1、2个季度。\n\n然后企业预期未来景气度的向上，开始增加资本开支，同时积极招工(这又是在2-4个季度之后了)，进而推动通货膨胀的上行。此时，美联储出手对通胀进行干预，以保证经济的健康发展。\n在这套系统中，如果干预的过晚，可能会使得通货膨胀滋长;但如果干预过早，就会将刚刚复苏的经济浇灭在摇篮中。如何来判断这个节奏，向来是个“天大的问题”，左边是通胀，右边是通缩，政府与中央银行必须在平衡木上小心翼翼的前行。\n2）当下美国经济数据中的一些矛盾之处\n一方面，美国消费、产量景气度无疑是上行的：个人消费支出上行(也归因去年低基数)，同时消费者信心指数恢复到疫情以来的最好水平。\n\n制造业PMI震荡上行，5月份服务业的PMI已经超过了疫情前的最高水平。\n\n成屋销售同比十年新高，房价加速上行，美国诸多媒体报道随处可见的“一房难求”、“买房加价”的现象。\n\n此外，市场对于美国宏观经济数据的预期，几个月以来也在不断上修。\n\n但是另一方面，在光鲜的数据背后，也有着不少隐忧：\n其一是实际时薪的下降。由于实际时薪决定了消费者的真实购买力，而本次经济复苏中，由于供给侧产能无法及时跟上、以及美元超发导致的商品价格的上行，推动了CPI率先走强，这使得名义时薪的上行而实际时薪的下降。历史上，实际时薪作为美国居民消费比较可靠的前导指标(当然，这主要在就业状况相对稳定的前提下)，当下给出的趋势并不明朗。\n\n其二是就业恢复仍需观察。根据美国劳工部的数据，新冠疫情让美国2200万人失去了工作。到目前为止，只恢复到了疫情前的67%的水平，还有800万就业差距。尚就在4月，美国新增非农就业大幅低于市场预期，5月仅仅符合本不高的预期。部分分析认为，因为撒钱式的补贴导致了低收入群体上班与不上班收入相当，这使得部分企业找不到员工，最终再次关门倒闭。据美国CNBC报导，在过去的一个月里，已经有25个州宣布将在其于9月6日正式到期之前，终止疫情期间的额外福利计划。一些州最早将于6月12日就停止联邦额外失业金的发放。这些州都是由共和党州长领导的。他们表示，额外增加的失业救济金，正在导致失业工人更愿意待在家里，而不是去找工作，这种补助使得企业很难招到工人，以填补急需的空缺职位。美国商会首席政策官布拉德利认为：“令人失望的就业报告清楚地表明，向不工作的人支付工资，正在抑制本应更加强劲的就业市场。”停止联邦额外失业金对后续用工的影响总体是积极的，但效果尚需跟踪。\n\n其三是关于拜登政府加税的预期。虽然我们预计此计划实施起来相当困难，而且为了确保中期选举，民主党不大可能在2022年中期选举之前在此问题上有过多的建树。然而，加税的预期在一定程度上将影响企业的人力资源规划。美国商会会长Clark表示，在提高商业税的必要性问题上与政府存在分歧：“拟议的增税计划将极大地损害美国企业和美国劳动者的利益。现在肯定不是为经济复苏设置新障碍的时候。政府倡导基础设施是正确的，我们希望与政府一起做这件事，但还有其他方法来资助基建计划。”美国商会表示支持基建设投资，但倾向于主要通过基础设施使用费来提供资金。美国零售联合会发言人McGinty表示，该组织在提交给美国参议院财政委员会的一封报告中反对为通过增加企业税为基建计划筹集资金。此外，美国零售业领导者协会发言人McGinty也表态，该协会反对给企业增税的立场没有改变。\n其四是关于美国股市在居民资产中的占比过高，股市的下跌将严重打击居民的消费热情。美国居民的财富和股票资产相关的有两类，一类是直接投资，另一类是通过养老计划(最终进入股市、债市)，两者在居民财富占比达到了惊人的57%(处在历史最高水平)，相比中国居民财富最大类的为房地产，在美国居民资产中的占比仅为24%。历史上，消费与股市互为因果：股票市场下跌→居民财富缩水→消费更加保守→企业盈利下降→股票市场下跌。当下，美股的总市值大约为45万亿美元，约为美国预期2021年GDP(22.2万亿美元)的202%。按照拉斯特维德在《逃不开的经济周期》中的估计，股市下跌将对GDP产生约4%的冲击系数。即，倘若美股下跌20%(这仅是一个基钦周期级别的调整)，单股市下跌对GDP的负向作用可达202%*20%*4%=-1.6%，以上，尚不考虑企业的资本开支萎缩，存货减值，房地产下跌等延伸性影响。一般来说，在一个有幅度的股票市场下跌行情中(如下跌1/3至一半)，且房地产市场也受到影响时(比如下跌1/5至1/3)，对当年GDP的综合影响约为-15%左右。\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在4月的FOMC记者会上表示，美联储“将确保货币政策继续为经济提供强有力的支持，直到完成复苏”。目前，投资者预期美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上宣布缩减QE。路透最新调查也显示，美联储可能在8月或9月宣布削减其大规模购债计划的策略，但预计要到明年初才会开始削减每月购买规模。\n而我们依然重复这一观点：就当下的美国经济，一旦TAPER实施，温和复苏的局面将可能终结。所以，持续审慎关注通胀(Q2/Q3)，就业数据(6、7、8月)，尤其是7、8月在部分州政府取消救助后对就业的影响，对于美联储是必要的。\n3）美债的走平说明市场对通胀的预期已经消化\n尽管5月份美国的CPI、核心CPI都创了新高，但是通胀预期(10年期美债收益率-10年TIPS收益率)下跌，美国10年期国债收益率振荡走平，这都说明对于通胀的预期已被市场所消化，下一步需要继续跟踪三季度的通胀水平。\n\n我们曾定量测算了本轮美债收益率的上行对于股票市场产生影响的关键位置。方法是观察在历史上的升息周期中加息次数、幅度(本轮联邦基金目标利率不动，这和历史略有区别，但市场利率上行是相同的)对于股票市场见顶的影响。我们测算了该结果：10年期美债收益率上行至1.9-2.0%水平时，美国牛市告一段落。\n4、大宗商品的上行仍将持续\n我们欣慰的回顾，在本轮大宗商品启动前的2019年发布的年度策略报告中，我们提及：“全球中周期——房地产周期、大宗商品周期均处在扩张阶段，短周期——基钦周期也已触及低点，转向扩张。中周期与短周期的合力共振向上，将推动周期资产价格的上涨”。到目前为止，我们对全球经济处在扩张阶段的判断依然没有改变。\n\n由于商品周期平均扩张时间为24-26个月，本轮大宗商品的上行将会在2022年二季度终结。此外，我们对比了商品指数与标普500的关系，与A股类似，标普500领先于CRB指数约0-3个月(就像上证指数领先PPI一样)，因此，我们初步匡算，美股将上涨到2022年一季度左右。\n美股依然运行在过去十年的估值框架中\n\n随着经济预期的向上修正，标普500的净利润也被上修。目前市场预期2021-2022年标普500EPS增速分别为40%，9%;ROE分别为19.7%，19.4%;EPS分别为194，211(而在我们去年年底撰写策略报告时期，EPS仅为170，197，上调幅度分别为14%，7%)。\n我们曾经介绍过，当下美国维持比疫情前更低的美债收益率，按照2008-2019年标普500的PE上限，21.4-21.5倍PE(剔除08年金融危机与20年疫情的极端影响)，给予标普500目标价，则可得：\nSPX目标价2021=194*21.4=4151点;\n如果考虑到估值切换到2022年，则可以得到：\nSPX目标价2022=211*21.4=4515点;\n因此，我们认为，今明两年，在标普500震荡上行达到4500点之前，美股则依然运行在最近十年的估值通道中而并未大幅高估。当然，谈论高估必然要讨论美债收益率、TAPER与QE，以及经济周期的位置，这些问题我们已经在前文解释过。\n\n二、A股：围绕二季报展开的行情已经开始\n1、企业中长期贷款的向上，佐证经济尚在扩张中\n5月份的M2同比已经不再下滑，开始出现了底部稳住的特征。中长期贷款依旧保持非常稳健的增长，预示着制造业信贷需求的旺盛。\n\n拆解社融科目，最近下降较为明显的是地方政府专项债券、企业债券、信托贷款。企业债券的下行背景是今年中央要求抓实化解地方政府隐性债务风险工作，多部门联合出手强化监管，遏制隐性债务增长;地方政府专项债券今年较去年略减少2800亿元，参考近期财政部下达2021年新增地方政府债务限额42676亿元(其中一般债务限额8000亿元，专项债务限额34676亿元)，低于此前经十三届人大四次会议批准的44700亿元预算(其中专项债务额度37500亿元);信托贷款的下滑是必然的，今年是资管新规过渡期的最后一年，信托业依旧在寻找转型与创新中。如此来看，今年的社融的特征是：政府与地方融资平台的融资需求放缓，房地产/信托的融资也被抑制住，而制造业的贷款需求旺盛。\n\n我们预估M1同比、工业增加值同比或者已经触及或者接近全年的低点并伴随经济周期的向上而抬升。\n\nM2中不统计财政存款(去年5月恰值财政存款高峰期)，因此社融较M2下滑更多我们认为是暂时性的。\n\n此外，国内资金面相对宽松，MLF从去年疫情至今尚未上行，理财收益率继续下行，信用利差下行(AA+，AAA较AA更加明显)。\n\n2、从6月开始，CPI与PPI差距将收敛\n今年上半年，PPI上行压力较大，在前几个月的跟踪过程中我们也感受到PPI的上行屡屡超过市场预期。去年5月为PPI全年的低点，因此从形态上，自6月份开始，PPI开启下行无疑。\n\n今年以来，CPI今年受制于猪价的下行有一定的拖累，但分科目观察，交通和通信、教育文化和娱乐、居住，以及食品烟酒环比都开始有了比较明显的改善。我们估计，CPI下半年还将保持韧性，稳步向上。\n\n但另一方面，PPI的下行代表了通胀压力的减缓，有利于制造业的盈利修复。但这并非意味着通胀压力的消失。因为在一个商品周期中，随着需求的好转，供给侧的产能尚无法在短周期内明显扩大，况且当下的周期品库存总体不高，随着库存的去化，商品价格还有进一步上行的空间。\n3、A股估值并不高，锁定中报预期上修的板块\n1）综合来看，当下A股估值并不高\n我们以过去十年的估值水平作为一个参考，观察一下当下A股的估值水平。\n万得全A当下估值20.3倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长回落至平均值。沪深300目前估值为14.5倍，若考虑估值切换，则2022年PE水平伴随业绩的增长也将回落至平均水平。\n\n上证指数当下的估值为14.2倍，处在平均值水平，若考虑估值切换，则2022年对应PE低于平均值;创业板当下估值水平略高59.0倍，但也处于+1个标准差以下，由于创业板增速更高，因此在考虑到估值切换的情境下，其2022年对应PE则低于平均值。\n\n中证500目前估值在所有主要的宽基指数中处于较低水平，估值仅为平均值-1标准差，若考虑到2022年的增速，则低于-1标准差;上证50估值水平处于相对较高水平，考虑到2022年的增长，则估值水平略高于历史平均值。\n\n综上，以十年周期来看A股，当下的估值水平并不高，下半年一旦考虑到估值切换，当下估值也仅为历史平均水平。如果测算A股的上行空间，我们以习惯的上证指数在年初16-16.2倍PE的年内最高水平测算，考虑到包含2022年估值切换的因素，测算上行目标区间约为4200-4300点。以上考虑是建立在经济周期扩张尚未结束，上行的主要动力是来自业绩提升而非估值扩张的情景。从宽基指数看，中证500较沪深300、上证50等估值更具吸引力。\n2）从成长性来看，科创与周期今年的业绩增速更明显\n从业绩增速观察，今年科创增速在宽基指数中居前，21年对比20年增长率高达70%，其次是小市值公司，国证2000，中证1000，中证500，创业板50，结合当下的估值水平和反弹情况，科创板、中证500性价比较高。在风格中，今年依旧不容忽视的是周期性行业的盈利增速，同比82%的增长，好过成长(74%)。\n\n从行业角度，今年增速较快的行业除了去年低基数的交运、传媒、消费者服务、零售外，有色、黑色居前，此外计算机、基础化工、电子、汽车也排名居前。\n\n3）从预期调整角度来看，周期性行业更占优势\n年报之后(4月30日)，科创50、中证500在所有宽基指数中预期上修幅度最大，上证指数也上修1%，排名第三。创业板、中证1000、国证2000则排名分别为后三位。风格中比较，周期性行业业绩上行幅度最大，成长则下修幅度最大。这和我们在前表中的观察略有矛盾，即成长股虽然增速最快，但从年报之后，业绩下修，说明目前成长股中的上行也是分化的而不是普遍的，而周期性行业的下跌是暂时的，二季报将至，我们认为周期性行业的机会将更加确定。\n\n对比年报后，业绩调整排名分行业比较如下：钢铁、消费者服务、汽车、交运石油石化居前，机械、有色金属、煤炭、轻工制造也有一定幅度的上调，而排名居后的分别是商贸零售、传媒、综合、农林牧渔、通信、计算机。\n在这样的排序中，我们认为依然需要讨论商品的价格，例如，如果基本金属、煤炭、原油的价格上行，将对中游的钢铁、汽车、机械、轻工、化工、家电等原材料敏感性的行业带来盈利压力，如果周期上游的价格稳定或者下行，则如上行业的盈利增速可能反倒继续上修。\n\n我们的态度是：本轮经济周期扩张尚未结束，而商品价格上行的诱因：连续7-10年的产能扩张相对有限的核心变量并没有改变，假定下游产量继续上行，则上游原材料上行的压力始终存在。因此，在板块的盈利预测方面，我们倾向于认为偏周期上游的有色金属、石油石化、煤炭的中报业绩确定性更强。\n4）从估值角度来看，不应忽略大金融的估值修复潜力\n按照对经济周期的理解，当CPI向上，市场收益率上行，预期金融行业受到息差加大的影响而盈利改善。因此，低估值的大金融有望在下半年修复。我们将一级行业放在PE/PB分位矩阵中观察，目前银行股的PB估值在历史最低水平，而且我们预计今年Q2银行业的ROE将有相对明显的同比抬升(对比去年Q2开始的预计提)。保险行业今年保费收入较差，但由于两年以来该板块没有表现，基本面不佳已经充分消化在股价上，下半年也有估值修复的空间。券商从去年7月份经历了一年的弱势震荡，当下估值也很低(连同保险处在历史分位10%以下)。考虑到国内注册制大潮的推进，以及券商资产质量优于保险、银行，我们认为下半年该板块也将有不错的表现。\n\n综合成长性，预期调整，估值三个方面，我们看好科创板、周期上游、大金融作为下半年的首选推荐。同时，我们按照前文的测算，上证将在年内有望上行至4200-4300点的高度。\n三、港股：蓄势已久，挑战新高\n1、2021年下半年恒指有望突破本轮新高\n市场预期，恒生指数(HSI)在2021年EPS增速为11%，2022年增速为-2%，这个表现不如A股，但是其收入端并不差，同比为19%与12%的增速。一些大型的互联网公司今年的目标依然是追求收入的增速而非利润端，这是一部分原因，另外恒生指数中地产、金融部分占比较高，也一定程度上拖累了利润的增长。\n\n下图是恒生指数(HSI)在历史上估值的PB波动区间。我们以此来测算恒指的下半年目标位。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们曾解释过，由于从历史波动率观察，净资产的稳定性更好(较EPS和股息)，因此，我们在预测恒指的低点或者高点通常考虑PB估值或者股息率。我们沿用每轮基钦周期扩张时PB的提升幅度，取中位数来匡算2021年下半年恒生指数的PB上限。\n\n从2002年以来，恒指在每轮基钦周期中的PB扩张幅度分别为49%、85%、74%、29%、63%，中位数为63%，平均数为60%。我们得到下半年恒生指数的PB上限是1.39倍。\nPB2021上限=0.87*(1+60%)=1.39\n根据分析师对2021-2022年净资产的预期为21,784点、23,387点，则恒指的目标位为：\n中性：21784(BPS2021)*1.39=30,374点;\n乐观(考虑到估值切换到2022年)：23,387(BPS2022)*1.39=32,610点。\n因此，我们判断下半年恒指的目标价将运行到31,000-32,000点附近，即有创本轮新高的潜力。\n2、上半年走势回顾\n我们在年初《2020年港股小结》中总结了五大方向：“展望2021年，寻找超额收益的方向可能是：1、新经济依然是主战场，尤其是反垄断政策与美国政策干扰下的投资标的将会“恐慌-错杀-再新高”的机会;2、次新股将带来更多的投资线索;3、风险偏好的上行将有助于大小市值的估值收敛;4、顺周期板块伴随疫情的恢复，将缩小板块间的表现差异;5、美国禁投令的靴子落地，将带来名单公司的估值修复机会。”\n复盘今年上半年，港股经历了三个阶段：上涨、下跌、反弹。\n第一阶段是春节之前，科技股、生物科技股一马当先，最高时期，恒生科技指数达到了29%的上涨幅度;\n第二个阶段是春节后至5月初，在美债收益率快速上行，以及互联网反垄断的影响下，恒生科技指数大幅回撤，收益率从29%跌至-11%，恒指跌破28000点;\n第三阶段是5月下旬到6月，随着美债收益率的稳定，以及市场不断的吸收了反垄断的诸多影响，各大指数开始反弹。表现最好的是生物科技板块(25%)，其次是香港本地股(9%)，再其次是港股通(7%)，国企指数和恒生科技跑输恒生指数。\n1）从内地投资者的角度，港股作为A股市场的补充，恒生科技与恒生生物科技是投资者最关注的两大赛道。去年恒生科技涨幅较大，加之反垄断的影响，带来了部分投资者止盈，而恒生生物科技则接过了接力棒，表现抢眼。我们相信，长期来看，新经济依然是主战场，恒生科技、生物科技都会有不错的表现。5月，易方达恒生科技ETF、华夏恒生科技ETF、大成恒生科技ETF、华安恒生科技ETF、华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF、博时恒生科技ETF、嘉实恒生科技ETF都已经发布，内地投资者可以透过这些ETF购买恒生科技指数，这样解决了港股没有覆盖的类似阿里巴巴、百度、京东、B站等一大批股票的投资限制问题。\n\n2）从风格上来看，可以看出，从年初以来，如果跑赢恒生指数，在风格上，要求仓位集中在恒生小型股、中小型股、中型股，而非大型股与中大型股。目前，恒生大型股与恒生小型股的估值依然在收敛中，我们按照历史规律统计过，当两者的PB差值转正，才是估值修正的终点(也往往是牛市的终点)，这也说明了目前的市场，机会远大于风险。\n\n3）从行业来看，除了医疗板块，今年周期上游大放异彩。其中能源业的表现排名第一，原材料业排名第三，综合业、恒生工业也有不错的表现。排名靠后的行业的必需性消费、资讯科技、金融。我们依然非常看好资源品，由于大宗品的价格较去年上行幅度很大，例如原油价格上行到了疫情以来的新高，CRB指数同比上行50%，铜价同比上行93%，铝价同比上行65%，因此大概率上这些板块二季报有不错的季报表现。\n\n4）从港股通524家公司的行业表现统计，煤炭涨幅惊人，其次是钢铁、基础化工、医药、纺织服装、传媒、有色金属、石油石化，排名居后的板块主要是电力设备、建材、餐饮旅游、国防军工、非银行金融、家电、汽车、综合、食品饮料等几个行业。\n\n5）从禁投名单的角度看，上半年收益可喜。我们在年初判断，禁投令公司今年会有不错的表现。截至2021年6月，禁投名单公司涨幅平均数为35%，中位数19%，大幅跑赢恒指。尽管如此，我们认为其中的诸多公司如电信运营商、石油公司，估值依然较低，还有相当程度的上行空间。\n\n3、市场预期变化：周期占优，餐饮/计算机下调\n利润预期：对比年报前后，钢铁、军工、石油石化、银行、家电、电子元器件、建筑、非银金融等几个行业的2021年净利润预期上修，而餐饮旅游、计算机、农林牧渔、有色金属、电力设备、机械、建材、食品饮料、商贸零售、通信、传媒几个板块的业绩下修。\n\n收入预期：对比年报前后，国防军工、钢铁、建材、家电、煤炭、汽车、电力设备、农林牧渔、电子元器件、交运等几个行业的2021年收入预期上修;而餐饮旅游、计算机、传媒等行业的收入预期下修。\n\n4、估值比较：纺织服装创新高，地产产业链新低\n以最近5年的数据比较，当下港股通的估值分位为24%(中位值)，其中，纺织服装、钢铁、基础化工、石油石化几个板块较高，而房地产、建筑、建材、轻工制造、非银金融、传媒、餐饮旅游、家电、交运等行业大幅低于平均水平。\n\n近月资金流入/流出：部分中游还在流入，说明市场还在牛市中\n从近期的资金流入情况来看，中游的诸多板块有进一步的加仓，而大金融、周期上游暂时偏弱。实际上这样的结构更加说明经济复苏依然在路上而非尾声。在牛市的尾声，呈现的局面应该相反：即中游流出，而大金融、周期上游资金加速流入。\n\n四、投资建议\n1、整体而言，在CPI上行时，低估值会有一定幅度的估值修复。如大金融、房地产、公用事业、电信运营商，这些行业相比较而言，我们认为大金融更优。理由是a)银行、券商在2020年都进行了较大幅度的计提，今年业绩同比改善更加明显;b)它们估值较低;c)息差扩大对它们的盈利预期有推动作用;房地产业今年拿地的成本较高，表现为较高程度的土地溢价，而承受的建安成本在大宗商品处在高位处也较高，因此我们认为地产公司目前尽管估值较低，但其吸引力略小于产业链上的公司。建筑业的发展受制于政府投资规模，目前来看，它们未来的增长速度将进一步放缓;\n2、就二季报来看，周期性行业，尤其是周期上游的公司更容易超预期。石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等板块，伴随着商品价格的高位(甚至进一步上行)，业绩会更佳。此间，汽车、机械、电子、家电等中游板块，或呈现先上涨后下跌的局面，理由是经济扩张后期商品价格上行导致其利润收窄，而价格的向下游传导也不如经济扩张早中期容易;\n3、本轮经济周期，由于疫情、经济转型(双循环)等综合影响，以恒生科技、生物科技、品牌服饰为代表的消费股，尤其是那些在港股中独特存在的公司，过去以及未来都会呈现良好的投资价值。当下，恒生科技有反弹需要，我们认为反垄断的压力已经充分消化在上半年的股价中，生物科技/医疗器械/纺织服装目前估值不低，但都有短期的催化因素，政策上的或业绩上的，我们认为它们的走势类似中游，Q3依然会有不错的表现，而Q4则会因为估值高而变得吸引力下降。\n综上，我们认为大金融、周期上游、恒生科技是我们下半年看好的三大方向。此外，新能源、半导体、生物制药、纺织服装也将半年报前后的趋势性机会。受制于疫情的反复，博彩板块的复苏尚需时日，预计Q4才有较为明显的机会。\n\n五、风险提示\n宏观经济复苏低于预期的风险，疫情反复的风险，中美贸易关系的不确定性，科技战的风险。\n\n本文选编自“学恒的海外观察”，作者：王学恒；智通财经编辑：庄礼佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"HHImain":0.9,"02833":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
