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2021-06-01

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Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market

2021-05-31

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Palantir Vs. Snowflake: Which Is The Better Buy For Long-Term Investors?

2021-05-17

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Palantir: Risky And Expensive

2021-05-16

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John Authers: Watching For "Unrest" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has "Jumped The Shark"

2021-05-15

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Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday

2021-05-14

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A Toshiba business unit says it has been attacked by hacking group DarkSide, report says

2021-05-12

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These ‘panic events’ could soon spell relief for stock markets, says top strategist Thomas Lee

2021-05-07

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Dropbox Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

2021-05-03

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2021-04-08

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2021-01-08

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@格林林:$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$第一停

2021-01-04

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@李东东:$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$今晚漲百分之三百

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news","listText":"Great news","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119279248","repostId":"1138216687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138216687","pubTimestamp":1622552095,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138216687?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 20:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138216687","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.The company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.Alibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.So far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United Sta","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.</li>\n <li>The company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.</li>\n <li>In my opinion, the stock is severely undervalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15ac5f97c66688f6d16ce98819ebce4a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>So far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United States and stocks listed on an US-based stock exchange. And while I am covering also companies from Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden or Denmark, I have avoided one country almost completely although it has many interesting investment opportunities: Mainland China.The only company I covered so far&nbsp;is Tencent Holdings Limited (OTCPK:TCEHY).</p>\n<p>And although China has hundreds or thousands of successful companies, most of them are almost unknown in the Western Hemisphere (especially when moving outside of the investing world). And while most investors are familiar with Tencent, there is at least one other company almost every investor has heard of: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). In the following article, I will analyze Alibaba in my usual way. I will try to determine if Alibaba is a solid business with a wide economic moat and try to answer the question if Alibaba is a solid investment right now.</p>\n<p><b>Business Description</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 individuals. Nevertheless, one of these 18 stands out – the former English teacher from Hangzhou, Jack Ma. Over the years, Alibaba evolved in a multinational technology company and with a market capitalization of $570 billion, Alibaba is on the 10thspot on the list of most valuable companies in the world (by market cap). And behind Tencent, which is on the 7thspot on that list, Alibaba is the second most valuable company in China.</p>\n<p>While Alibaba is mostly focused on e-commerce and retail operations, the Alibaba Group is actually a holding company with many different sales services. This includes C2C services, B2C services and B2B services. Aside from retail, the Alibaba Group also offers electronic payment services, shipping search engines and could computing services. The group owns and operates a diverse portfolio of companies around the world in numerous business sectors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b315044f4644568e7df5d95cc6720995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\"><span>(Source:Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba is reporting in four different segments:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Core Commerce Revenue</b>: This segment is comprised of platforms operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China as well as logistics services and local consumer services. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 621.1 billion in revenue and RMB 159 billion in income from operations.</li>\n <li><b>Cloud Computing Revenue</b>: This segment is comprised of Alibaba Cloud, which offers different cloud services to customers worldwide like database, storage, big data analytics, a machine learning platform and large-scale computing security. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 60.1 billion, but the segment was not profitable so far (a loss of RMB 9 billion).</li>\n <li><b>Digital Media and Entertainment Revenue</b>: This segment uses the deep data insights to serve the broader interests of consumers through key distribution platforms Youku and Alibaba Pictures as well as other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, literature and music. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 31.2 billion, but was also not profitable.</li>\n <li><b>Innovation Initiatives and Others Revenue</b>: This segment includes businesses like Amap, DingTalk, Tmall Genie and others. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 4.8 billion in revenue, but also an operating loss.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0529c547e87a4c0b023289ecb1822cbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\"><span>(Source: Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When looking at the last annual results (fiscal 2021), Alibaba generated RMB 717.3 billion in revenue. Compared to fiscal 2020 (RMB 509.7 billion) this is reflecting an increase of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2021 was RMB 196.8 billion – an increase of 25% compared to fiscal 2020 (adjusted EBITA of RMB 157.7 billion). Diluted earnings per share actually decreased from RMB 6.99 in fiscal 2020 to RMB 6.84 in fiscal 2021 – reflecting a decrease of 2.1%. But we should not pay too much attention to the earnings per share. Instead, it makes much more sense to look at the free cash flow Alibaba is generating. In fiscal 2021, Alibaba generated RMB 172.7 billion in free cash flow compared to RMB 130.9 billion in free cash flow one year earlier.</p>\n<p><b>Strong Business Among Strong Competitors</b></p>\n<p>What is striking when looking at Alibaba – and what has been discussed several times – is the low multiple for which Alibaba is currently trading. When using the trailing twelve-month GAAP numbers, Alibaba is trading for 25 times earnings, when using the non-GAAP forward numbers, it is trading for a P/E ratio of 20.</p>\n<p>We can compare Alibaba to its peers – companies like Amazon (AMZN), Tencent, Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) or Alphabet (GOOG). And Alibaba actually belongs in that list as it is not only operating in similar business segments, but it is also growing with similarly high rates. And Alibaba is not only growing with a similar pace; it is actually outperforming most of its peers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b576dcef2e37a02a6eba5677fded8ef8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>(Source:Alibaba 2020 Investor Presentations)</span></p>\n<p>While Alibaba is growing with a similar pace like these companies, it is trading for a completely different multiple. Right now, Alibaba is trading for a price-cash-flow ratio of 17, while competitors like Tencent, Facebook or Microsoft are trading for a P/FCF ratio between 35 and 40. It is striking, that the market is assigning these competitors a multiple twice as high and Amazon is actually trading for a multiple more than 4 times higher (price-free-cash-flow ratio of 76).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2f58771a8062c7bb980622b93073e5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Right now, readers might point out, that the comparison to Amazon is misleading as Amazon is still spending a lot of money to achieve future growth and therefore has a lower profit than other companies. And it certainly is true, that Amazon is still focusing on top line growth – sometimes at the expense of bottom-line growth – but so does Alibaba.</p>\n<p>While Amazon spent 10.4% of its revenue as capital expenditures in the last fiscal year, Alibaba spent almost the same amount – 8.9% of revenue. And when looking at the expenses for research and development, we once again see similar numbers. In the last five years, Amazon spent 12.16% of revenue on R&amp;D on average while Alibaba spent 10.38% of its revenue on R&amp;D.</p>\n<p>But while these numbers are quite similar for both companies – Amazon is spending a bit more on R&amp;D than Alibaba – the free cash flow these two companies can generate is completely different. While Amazon only generated 6.7% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year, Alibaba generated 26.5% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year – almost four times higher.</p>\n<p>And Alibaba is not only extremely profitable – it was growing with an extremely high pace in the past. During the past ten years, Alibaba could not only grow revenue every single year, it also grew revenue with a CAGR of 62.6%. Earnings per share fluctuated a little bit during these ten years but grew with an even higher pace – a CAGR of 76.29% during the last decade. And finally, free cash flow increased with a CAGR of 59.62% during the last decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ccaf170c0d86cd8022a68bc3657c30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>(Source: Author’s work based on numbers from Morningstar)</span></p>\n<p>When looking at Alibaba’s growth rates in the last few years compared to its competitors, Alibaba is also outperforming. When looking at the revenue CAGR of the last 5 years, we get the following numbers:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon: 29.26%</li>\n <li>Facebook: 36.82%</li>\n <li>Tencent: 36.20%</li>\n <li>Alphabet: 19.47%</li>\n <li>Microsoft: 8.85%</li>\n <li>Alibaba: 46.24%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>We can spin it how we want: Alibaba is an extremely profitable company growing with extremely high rates but is trading at an extremely low multiple compared to its competitors. It is growing with a higher pace than Microsoft and Facebook, but trading for half the multiple. It is much more profitable than Amazon and also growing at a higher pace, but trading for a quarter of the valuation multiple. At this point, profitability and growth of Alibaba on the one side and the valuation multiple on the other side does not add up. And we have to ask the question, why Alibaba is trading for such a low multiple although it is outperforming many of its peers that trade for much higher multiples.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>When looking at the past performance of Alibaba, we can see, that steep selloffs are quite common as a similar sell-off happened already three times since the IPO in 2014 with the steepest sell-off being more than 50% off the previous high.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da83a08f0dcfc73534c206e43cb09d3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>While this might help us a bit, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty and investors usually don’t like uncertainty. Basically, this uncertainty can be summed up in one short sentence: The tense relationship between Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government is worrying for investors. And this tense relationship is exemplified by several events. It started last year, when the IPO of the company’s fintech affiliate Ant Financial was cancelled. </p>\n<p>This was followed by theinitiation of an antitrust investigation, in which it is investigated if Alibaba had engaged in monopolistic practices (like preventing vendors from selling on other platforms). Additionally, new supervision for Ant Group was also discussed. And finally, at the end of 2020, Jack Ma went missing and it took about three months before the public would hear from him again – another worrying aspect for investors.</p>\n<p>As long as we are talking about risks, there are other aspect I like to mention. I compared Alibaba to Amazon above – and I still think that comparison is appropriate. But we also have to acknowledge, that Alibaba growth potential is limited as the company is mostly focused on China and might have more difficulties to expand globally – compared to Amazon. But considering the growing middle class in China and the high pace with which the economy is still growing we should not worry too much about Alibaba’s growth potential.</p>\n<p>There is a final risk Imentioned in my last article about Tencentand that risk is also applying to Alibaba:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And a final risk is the fact that Tencent is a Chinese company. It is especially difficult to understand different trends before they are happening and predict the future, but while I am familiar with the German culture and the people (habits, preferences, etc.) and can deal with similar countries like France, the United Kingdom, Sweden or the United States, it is rather difficult for me to understand and analyze the consumer behavior and preferences of the Chinese population. This makes it difficult to assess the potential and development of the products and services Tencent offers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>But despite all these issues, there is a comparison I like very much. Very recently,one of my fellow contributorscompared Alibaba’s situation right now to Facebook a few years ago, when it was facing the Cambridge Analytics scandal and also trading for extremely low multiples due to the uncertainties. And it is also interesting, that Wall Street analysts as well as Seeking Alpha contributors are extremely bullish about Alibaba right now.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d2ece5c1460e539c9fd4fb4ba63bf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p>\n<p>When facing challenges, it is especially reassuring if we are dealing with a solid balance sheet enabling the company to withstand challenges and stormy market conditions. And similar to many companies mentioned above – like Facebook or Alphabet – Alibaba also has a great balance sheet. We don’t have to worry about high debt levels although Alibaba has current bank borrowings of RMB 3.6 billion and non-current bank borrowings of RMB 38.3 billion on its balance sheet. But compared to a total equity of RMB 1,075 billion, we get a D/E ratio of 0.04, which is negligible. Aside from the debt, the biggest problem is probably the company’s goodwill. On March 31, 2021, Alibaba had RMB 292.8 billion in goodwill. This means, that 17.3% of total assets (RMB 1,690 billion) is goodwill.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532919e61e3feb83d46cbce44e3f3c42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\"><span>(Source:Alibaba Q4/21 Earnings Release)</span></p>\n<p>But aside from goodwill, Alibaba also has RMB 321.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 152.4 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. Aside from these rather liquid assets, Alibaba also has RMB 237.2 billion in equity securities and other investments, that are also worth mentioning. I included a screenshot of the latest balance sheet, which is also including the numbers in US$. Especially $72 billion in very liquid assets give Alibaba a lot of “financial power” and the ability to negative troubles.</p>\n<p><b>Intrinsic Value Calculation</b></p>\n<p>I already mentioned above that Alibaba is trading at rather low multiples – at least when compared to its peers and especially for a company growing with a high pace. And compared to the company’s history, the stock is right now trading almost for its lowest P/FCF ratio since the IPO. A few times – in 2016, 2018 and 2020 – the stock was trading at a similar low P/FCF ratio. From that point of view, Alibaba has to be considered extremely cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1da4ac18557b21c43feb2a338de9a3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha Charting)</span></p>\n<p>When you are familiar with my past articles, you know that I don’t just use valuation multiples but also a discount cash flow analysis, which is considered to be much more precise (although we have to make a lot more assumptions). When taking the free cash flow of fiscal 2021 (RMB 172.7 billion) as basis, Alibaba has to grow about 5.5% annually from now till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued (the intrinsic value is RMB 1,367; discount rate 10%).</p>\n<p>Instead, we can also calculate with more realistic growth rates. If we assume, that Alibaba won’t go under, we have to assume at least 20% growth for the next year. Let’s be rather pessimistic and assume, that growth will slowly decline over the next decade and in 10 years from now, the growth rate will only be 6% till perpetuity. When using these numbers, we get an intrinsic value of&nbsp;<b>RMB 2,596</b>. And we have to assume, that these growth assumptions are rather cautious for a company like Alibaba.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>So far, we talked about risks, about past growth rates, compared Alibaba to its peers and provided an intrinsic value calculation. I also wanted to write about the growth potential as well as the wide economic moat, that Alibaba has without any doubt – similar toAmazon,FacebookorTencent. But the article would probably be too long then. Instead, I included links to three articles in which I described the economic moat of these businesses.</p>\n<p>When summing up, it is quite simple. When we assume, that Alibaba is in serious trouble and might be brought down in some way or is facing troubles, that will seriously mess with the company’s ability to grow, we should not invest in Alibaba. These risks are present, and we actually don’t know what could happen in the coming quarters (or years). However, I consider it extremely unlikely, that China will destroy its second most-valuable company. If we assume on the other side, that this is just a small hick-up and troubles Alibaba can work through in the coming quarters and Alibaba will continue to perform in a similar way as in the past (even with growth rates slowing down), Alibaba is probably one of the most undervalued stocks out there and an extreme bargain.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.\nThe company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1138216687","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.\nThe company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.\nAlibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.\nIn my opinion, the stock is severely undervalued.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSo far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United States and stocks listed on an US-based stock exchange. And while I am covering also companies from Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden or Denmark, I have avoided one country almost completely although it has many interesting investment opportunities: Mainland China.The only company I covered so far is Tencent Holdings Limited (OTCPK:TCEHY).\nAnd although China has hundreds or thousands of successful companies, most of them are almost unknown in the Western Hemisphere (especially when moving outside of the investing world). And while most investors are familiar with Tencent, there is at least one other company almost every investor has heard of: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). In the following article, I will analyze Alibaba in my usual way. I will try to determine if Alibaba is a solid business with a wide economic moat and try to answer the question if Alibaba is a solid investment right now.\nBusiness Description\nAlibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 individuals. Nevertheless, one of these 18 stands out – the former English teacher from Hangzhou, Jack Ma. Over the years, Alibaba evolved in a multinational technology company and with a market capitalization of $570 billion, Alibaba is on the 10thspot on the list of most valuable companies in the world (by market cap). And behind Tencent, which is on the 7thspot on that list, Alibaba is the second most valuable company in China.\nWhile Alibaba is mostly focused on e-commerce and retail operations, the Alibaba Group is actually a holding company with many different sales services. This includes C2C services, B2C services and B2B services. Aside from retail, the Alibaba Group also offers electronic payment services, shipping search engines and could computing services. The group owns and operates a diverse portfolio of companies around the world in numerous business sectors.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nAlibaba is reporting in four different segments:\n\nCore Commerce Revenue: This segment is comprised of platforms operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China as well as logistics services and local consumer services. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 621.1 billion in revenue and RMB 159 billion in income from operations.\nCloud Computing Revenue: This segment is comprised of Alibaba Cloud, which offers different cloud services to customers worldwide like database, storage, big data analytics, a machine learning platform and large-scale computing security. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 60.1 billion, but the segment was not profitable so far (a loss of RMB 9 billion).\nDigital Media and Entertainment Revenue: This segment uses the deep data insights to serve the broader interests of consumers through key distribution platforms Youku and Alibaba Pictures as well as other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, literature and music. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 31.2 billion, but was also not profitable.\nInnovation Initiatives and Others Revenue: This segment includes businesses like Amap, DingTalk, Tmall Genie and others. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 4.8 billion in revenue, but also an operating loss.\n\n(Source: Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nWhen looking at the last annual results (fiscal 2021), Alibaba generated RMB 717.3 billion in revenue. Compared to fiscal 2020 (RMB 509.7 billion) this is reflecting an increase of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2021 was RMB 196.8 billion – an increase of 25% compared to fiscal 2020 (adjusted EBITA of RMB 157.7 billion). Diluted earnings per share actually decreased from RMB 6.99 in fiscal 2020 to RMB 6.84 in fiscal 2021 – reflecting a decrease of 2.1%. But we should not pay too much attention to the earnings per share. Instead, it makes much more sense to look at the free cash flow Alibaba is generating. In fiscal 2021, Alibaba generated RMB 172.7 billion in free cash flow compared to RMB 130.9 billion in free cash flow one year earlier.\nStrong Business Among Strong Competitors\nWhat is striking when looking at Alibaba – and what has been discussed several times – is the low multiple for which Alibaba is currently trading. When using the trailing twelve-month GAAP numbers, Alibaba is trading for 25 times earnings, when using the non-GAAP forward numbers, it is trading for a P/E ratio of 20.\nWe can compare Alibaba to its peers – companies like Amazon (AMZN), Tencent, Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) or Alphabet (GOOG). And Alibaba actually belongs in that list as it is not only operating in similar business segments, but it is also growing with similarly high rates. And Alibaba is not only growing with a similar pace; it is actually outperforming most of its peers.\n(Source:Alibaba 2020 Investor Presentations)\nWhile Alibaba is growing with a similar pace like these companies, it is trading for a completely different multiple. Right now, Alibaba is trading for a price-cash-flow ratio of 17, while competitors like Tencent, Facebook or Microsoft are trading for a P/FCF ratio between 35 and 40. It is striking, that the market is assigning these competitors a multiple twice as high and Amazon is actually trading for a multiple more than 4 times higher (price-free-cash-flow ratio of 76).\nData by YCharts\nRight now, readers might point out, that the comparison to Amazon is misleading as Amazon is still spending a lot of money to achieve future growth and therefore has a lower profit than other companies. And it certainly is true, that Amazon is still focusing on top line growth – sometimes at the expense of bottom-line growth – but so does Alibaba.\nWhile Amazon spent 10.4% of its revenue as capital expenditures in the last fiscal year, Alibaba spent almost the same amount – 8.9% of revenue. And when looking at the expenses for research and development, we once again see similar numbers. In the last five years, Amazon spent 12.16% of revenue on R&D on average while Alibaba spent 10.38% of its revenue on R&D.\nBut while these numbers are quite similar for both companies – Amazon is spending a bit more on R&D than Alibaba – the free cash flow these two companies can generate is completely different. While Amazon only generated 6.7% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year, Alibaba generated 26.5% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year – almost four times higher.\nAnd Alibaba is not only extremely profitable – it was growing with an extremely high pace in the past. During the past ten years, Alibaba could not only grow revenue every single year, it also grew revenue with a CAGR of 62.6%. Earnings per share fluctuated a little bit during these ten years but grew with an even higher pace – a CAGR of 76.29% during the last decade. And finally, free cash flow increased with a CAGR of 59.62% during the last decade.\n(Source: Author’s work based on numbers from Morningstar)\nWhen looking at Alibaba’s growth rates in the last few years compared to its competitors, Alibaba is also outperforming. When looking at the revenue CAGR of the last 5 years, we get the following numbers:\n\nAmazon: 29.26%\nFacebook: 36.82%\nTencent: 36.20%\nAlphabet: 19.47%\nMicrosoft: 8.85%\nAlibaba: 46.24%\n\nWe can spin it how we want: Alibaba is an extremely profitable company growing with extremely high rates but is trading at an extremely low multiple compared to its competitors. It is growing with a higher pace than Microsoft and Facebook, but trading for half the multiple. It is much more profitable than Amazon and also growing at a higher pace, but trading for a quarter of the valuation multiple. At this point, profitability and growth of Alibaba on the one side and the valuation multiple on the other side does not add up. And we have to ask the question, why Alibaba is trading for such a low multiple although it is outperforming many of its peers that trade for much higher multiples.\nRisks\nWhen looking at the past performance of Alibaba, we can see, that steep selloffs are quite common as a similar sell-off happened already three times since the IPO in 2014 with the steepest sell-off being more than 50% off the previous high.\nData byYCharts\nWhile this might help us a bit, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty and investors usually don’t like uncertainty. Basically, this uncertainty can be summed up in one short sentence: The tense relationship between Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government is worrying for investors. And this tense relationship is exemplified by several events. It started last year, when the IPO of the company’s fintech affiliate Ant Financial was cancelled. \nThis was followed by theinitiation of an antitrust investigation, in which it is investigated if Alibaba had engaged in monopolistic practices (like preventing vendors from selling on other platforms). Additionally, new supervision for Ant Group was also discussed. And finally, at the end of 2020, Jack Ma went missing and it took about three months before the public would hear from him again – another worrying aspect for investors.\nAs long as we are talking about risks, there are other aspect I like to mention. I compared Alibaba to Amazon above – and I still think that comparison is appropriate. But we also have to acknowledge, that Alibaba growth potential is limited as the company is mostly focused on China and might have more difficulties to expand globally – compared to Amazon. But considering the growing middle class in China and the high pace with which the economy is still growing we should not worry too much about Alibaba’s growth potential.\nThere is a final risk Imentioned in my last article about Tencentand that risk is also applying to Alibaba:\n\n And a final risk is the fact that Tencent is a Chinese company. It is especially difficult to understand different trends before they are happening and predict the future, but while I am familiar with the German culture and the people (habits, preferences, etc.) and can deal with similar countries like France, the United Kingdom, Sweden or the United States, it is rather difficult for me to understand and analyze the consumer behavior and preferences of the Chinese population. This makes it difficult to assess the potential and development of the products and services Tencent offers.\n\nBut despite all these issues, there is a comparison I like very much. Very recently,one of my fellow contributorscompared Alibaba’s situation right now to Facebook a few years ago, when it was facing the Cambridge Analytics scandal and also trading for extremely low multiples due to the uncertainties. And it is also interesting, that Wall Street analysts as well as Seeking Alpha contributors are extremely bullish about Alibaba right now.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBalance Sheet\nWhen facing challenges, it is especially reassuring if we are dealing with a solid balance sheet enabling the company to withstand challenges and stormy market conditions. And similar to many companies mentioned above – like Facebook or Alphabet – Alibaba also has a great balance sheet. We don’t have to worry about high debt levels although Alibaba has current bank borrowings of RMB 3.6 billion and non-current bank borrowings of RMB 38.3 billion on its balance sheet. But compared to a total equity of RMB 1,075 billion, we get a D/E ratio of 0.04, which is negligible. Aside from the debt, the biggest problem is probably the company’s goodwill. On March 31, 2021, Alibaba had RMB 292.8 billion in goodwill. This means, that 17.3% of total assets (RMB 1,690 billion) is goodwill.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/21 Earnings Release)\nBut aside from goodwill, Alibaba also has RMB 321.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 152.4 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. Aside from these rather liquid assets, Alibaba also has RMB 237.2 billion in equity securities and other investments, that are also worth mentioning. I included a screenshot of the latest balance sheet, which is also including the numbers in US$. Especially $72 billion in very liquid assets give Alibaba a lot of “financial power” and the ability to negative troubles.\nIntrinsic Value Calculation\nI already mentioned above that Alibaba is trading at rather low multiples – at least when compared to its peers and especially for a company growing with a high pace. And compared to the company’s history, the stock is right now trading almost for its lowest P/FCF ratio since the IPO. A few times – in 2016, 2018 and 2020 – the stock was trading at a similar low P/FCF ratio. From that point of view, Alibaba has to be considered extremely cheap.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha Charting)\nWhen you are familiar with my past articles, you know that I don’t just use valuation multiples but also a discount cash flow analysis, which is considered to be much more precise (although we have to make a lot more assumptions). When taking the free cash flow of fiscal 2021 (RMB 172.7 billion) as basis, Alibaba has to grow about 5.5% annually from now till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued (the intrinsic value is RMB 1,367; discount rate 10%).\nInstead, we can also calculate with more realistic growth rates. If we assume, that Alibaba won’t go under, we have to assume at least 20% growth for the next year. Let’s be rather pessimistic and assume, that growth will slowly decline over the next decade and in 10 years from now, the growth rate will only be 6% till perpetuity. When using these numbers, we get an intrinsic value of RMB 2,596. And we have to assume, that these growth assumptions are rather cautious for a company like Alibaba.\nConclusion\nSo far, we talked about risks, about past growth rates, compared Alibaba to its peers and provided an intrinsic value calculation. I also wanted to write about the growth potential as well as the wide economic moat, that Alibaba has without any doubt – similar toAmazon,FacebookorTencent. But the article would probably be too long then. Instead, I included links to three articles in which I described the economic moat of these businesses.\nWhen summing up, it is quite simple. When we assume, that Alibaba is in serious trouble and might be brought down in some way or is facing troubles, that will seriously mess with the company’s ability to grow, we should not invest in Alibaba. These risks are present, and we actually don’t know what could happen in the coming quarters (or years). However, I consider it extremely unlikely, that China will destroy its second most-valuable company. If we assume on the other side, that this is just a small hick-up and troubles Alibaba can work through in the coming quarters and Alibaba will continue to perform in a similar way as in the past (even with growth rates slowing down), Alibaba is probably one of the most undervalued stocks out there and an extreme bargain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110617265,"gmtCreate":1622448971057,"gmtModify":1704184577940,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mission","listText":"Mission","text":"Mission","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110617265","repostId":"1187518687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187518687","pubTimestamp":1622444095,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187518687?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-31 14:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Vs. Snowflake: Which Is The Better Buy For Long-Term Investors?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187518687","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBig data analytics and decisioning is one of the cornerstones of the digital transformation","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Big data analytics and decisioning is one of the cornerstones of the digital transformation revolution sweeping through much of the IT firmament.</li>\n <li>The two leading companies in providing the building blocks for large data warehouses and for decisioning applications based on big data analytics are Palantir and Snowflake.</li>\n <li>Both of these companies have already compiled enviable growth records; indeed, the growth Snowflake is enjoying is as rapid as any ramp I have ever seen.</li>\n <li>The issue for investors is really not the likely success of these companies, or the fact that they are down a great deal from recent post IPO valuations. The issue is their current valuation and future growth.</li>\n <li>My conclusion, based solely on valuation, is that Palantir will provide a somewhat greater return than Snowflake over the coming years. But in neither case is it likely that long term returns can rise beyond the teens.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e334ff290e3ff9d31d41e402324f177e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>Photo by DKosig/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>A sharp sector rotation affords long-term investors with opportunities not often encountered!</b></p>\n<p>It will probably come as no surprise to most readers that the last 3 months have been marked by a very strong sector rotation away from high-growth, high value names to cyclical/reopening names. Even some of the strongest companies have seen their valuations eviscerated over that period. The culprit for the rotation is investor concern with both prior valuations and investor concern about spikes in inflation leading to interest rate increases. The valuation compression is even sharper than it may appear on the surface. Not only are share prices down, but revenue estimates and operational performance are showing very strong positive trends. In most cases, EV/S ratios have fallen by 25% or more and in a few cases the fall has been 50% and even greater. Much like a lake which is plagued by drought, this valuation compression has made visible several islands of opportunity.</p>\n<p>This is not an article about sector rotation per se, or about the valuation of tech names per se. Have the last several days of trading been a harbinger that sector rotation is ending, or was it simply a long awaited response to several days of extreme valuation compression in the tech space? At some point, the combination of falling share prices and rising growth rates for revenues and free cash flow will obviously lead to a reversal-but lacking 2ndsight, I have to leave that vexed question to others.</p>\n<p>One of my favorite components of Lincoln’s 2ndinaugural address is the ringing phrase, “fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray.” Now the President was talking about the passing of the scourge of war, and I am writing about the end of a sector rotation. But it has been a difficult period that has scourged the portfolios of many investors and I do hope it will pass away soon.</p>\n<p>One of the several artifacts of what some might call “The Great Sector Rotation” has been the emergence of several growth names that had been un-investible due to valuation for months or since they became public. This article is focused on two such names, Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW). These are names that are prominent in the IT space. are amongst the leaders in the Big Data/Analytics space and which have generated remarkable interest amongst many investors and readers of SA. Both of them are quite exceptional companies-but I don’t think either is a particularly remarkable investment. That said, at current valuations (I am using share prices as of 5/24 to calculate my valuation relationships), both of these names can potentially provide investors modest-but double digit long term returns. That is usually less than many tech investors find acceptable-but the visibility and relative stability of both of these companies is an unquantifiable intangible that some may find particularly attractive. Again, entirely based on valuation, and no other factor, Palantir is a more attractive investment-although the calculated return difference compared to Snowflake isn’t huge. Obviously, it is the CAGR differential between businesses that make it so difficult for an observer to make an unqualified choice.</p>\n<p>I want to make clear than when asked for a choice between these two names, my first response would be neither. There are simply better choices in the IT world as potential investments. Investors have a wide choice of names in the space in the wake of the valuation compression and there are different attributes associated with these names.</p>\n<p>For those investors looking for my choices in the high growth/high valuation segment, I would recommend CrowdStrike (CRWD), Datadog (DDOG). Zscaler (ZI) and ZoomInfo (ZI). Could Snowflake make this list-possibly because it certainly has the highest CAGR of any of the names that I follow. But even using what is essentially a 4 year CAGR of 70% to reach a terminal sales level of more than $6 billion, and a terminal growth rate in the mid-thirty percent range still does not produce super returns for Snowflake because it is hard to do so when the starting point is a valuation of 53X EV/S (as of the close on Monday, May 24th). And forecasting that a company with a $6 billion run rate to continue growth in the mid-30% range is certainly a bit of a reach-although the market that SNOW addresses is enormous and growing.</p>\n<p>For investors looking for a combination of growth coupled with less than average valuation in terms of their EV/S ratio, choices include names such as Upstart (UPST). Affirm (AFRM), Asana (ASAN), Elastic (ESTC), Wix (WIX) and Jamf (JAMF). Some investors are looking for names with very high free cash flow margins. Here choices include Atlassian (TEAM), Dynatrace (DT), Veeva (VEEV), Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE). Many investors would choose to use some kind of combination of free cash flow margin + growth rate in compiling a buy list. Here, the regnant champion is ZoomInfo (ZI) but perhaps Palantir makes the list-depending on whether the free cash flow metric achieved last quarter was an outlier or represented the start of a trend. Trade Desk (TTD), in the wake of its recent share price compression of 40% since mid-February would also be on this list.</p>\n<p>Some investors look for bargains amongst fairly IPO’s. There are some bargains now to be seen in that sector such as Affirm and also nCino (NCNO) and perhaps Jamf. These are companies whose price action after the IPO took their valuations to unsustainable levels and which have now compressed to what appear to be bargains. I try to approach the recent IPOs with the same methodology as the rest of the names I follow. Inevitably, given the small number of shares in most IPOs, stock prices can subsequently reach dizzying levels as institutions, in particular, look to establish full positions that they were unable to create with an IPO allocation. But once that demand ceases, these names fall, and can do so to very compressed valuations.</p>\n<p>Finally, there are some investors who look for proverbial bargains by screening for percentage declines over some fixed period. That is not a methodology I favor. Many companies can be mis-priced in terms of valuation and so the fact that a name is down a particular percentage is of less importance to me, than how the companies score on EV/S valuation and free cash flow margins. I have seen many articles that focus on either Snowflake or Palantir because of their steep declines during and even before the sector rotation. While it is not uncommon for commentators to use a percentage decline as a screening point, my approach doesn’t value that technique. Specifically, there was no conceivable logical methodology that could have supported the peak valuations of either Snowflake or Palantir, so the fact that they have fallen substantially is not proof-at least to this writer-that they are now reasonably valued.</p>\n<p>I try not to be obsessively tied to formulas in creating a buy list for my own portfolio or for my recommendations. I am, admittedly, biased toward growth, but when I see a combination of growth and free cash flow margin, I can fall in love-at least figuratively. (Sort of like Daumier’s famous lithograph, “Fusion des Compagnies. Effusion des actionnaires. (Les Beaux Jours de la Vie), from Le Charivari, Honoré Daumier ^ Minneapolis Institute of Art. I use some combination of all approaches in compiling my own list of names that I think are buy rated. I don’t include any megacap names, more because I think their investment merits are well recognized and there isn’t too much in the way of value add that I might provide.</p>\n<p>To repeat: both Palantir and Snowflake are and will remain remarkable businesses that are revolutionizing the way software is used in both government and commercial applications. Bringing storage to the cloud the way it is done by Snowflake is hastening digital transformation and making it easier to migrate workloads to the cloud-a significant priority for many-probably most enterprise users of IT. The combination of data integration, AI and search which enable users to find patterns and develop useful insights is achieving some of the more “Buck Rogerish” dreams of software engineers and ultimately all classes of users.</p>\n<p>But having said that, it is still necessary to look at growth and cash flow to arrive at a valuation and while the valuation compression has led to opportunities, the opportunities are not of the once in a generation scale. Investors who want to own the best companies frequently are going to be asked to sacrifice some percentage upside to buy the best of the breed, and that is what I see here, regardless of my admiration of the offerings of both companies.</p>\n<p>One thing to note: I would be greatly surprised if either Palantir or Snowflake will precisely look the way they do at this writing. They are going to wind up making acquisitions-I doubt that valuations and chemistry would allow either company to be acquired. Speculating about acquisitions is a fun parlor trick, but not something that can really be forecast with any degree of specificity. But one reason as to why I have suggested that these companies will continue to grow at elevated rates relates to my belief that there will be some element of inorganic revenue in the results of both companies 4 years from now.</p>\n<p><b>The background of Snowflake and Palantir</b></p>\n<p>Both of these businesses have been and remain high growth companies with strong technology moats and a host of the most prominent IT users in the world. Palantir reported recent results that swung strongly to free cash generation; SNOW is perhaps the fastest growing name I have seen at scale. And the shares of both companies have seen rather substantial compression. Since the rotation began in early/mid-February, shares of Snowflake have&nbsp;fallen as much as 39% before bouncing 11.5% on Friday, May 14th partially due to a&nbsp;new recommendation from the analyst at Goldman Sachs.Shares of&nbsp;Palantir had fallen as much as 53%&nbsp;before its bounce 9.3% on Friday May 14th.</p>\n<p>Both of these companies seem destined to be major factors in the software over the course of the coming years. Over time, as they mature, I expect that both of these company’s will evolve highly profitable business models. Based strictly on the way I value companies, I find the shares of Palantir to be more attractive to investors than the shares of Snowflake-even though self-evidently, Snowflake is growing faster than Palantir. I believe that long-term investors will achieve a somewhat greater return investing in Palantir than in Snowflake-but the difference isn’t huge and speculating about an end-result 4 years from now is inevitably a fraught undertaking.</p>\n<p>I have been frequently asked by subscribers to my Ticker Target service. by investment advisory clients and by readers of SA articles to provide some opinion on both of these companies with a plurality inquiring about Palantir. For months, until now, I haven’t chosen to make much of a response given the valuations have been of a magnitude that made any kind of positive recommendation more faith based than logical.</p>\n<p><b>Trying to find a formula for relative valuations</b></p>\n<p>Let’s face it-trying to decide between the investment merits of two companies with a great base of IP, addressing hot spaces within the enterprise software space is a bit like handicapping the results of sporting events before the start of a season. There is loads of pure guesswork and less substance than most would like. Many analysts demur doing something like this-or if they are like me, they suggest to clients that there is no reason just to own a single name of this kind in a portfolio. I am going to attempt to present some qualitative as well as quantitative analysis-but in the nature of things it will be subjective.</p>\n<p>One consideration is always management. Does either Palantir or Snowflake have better management?Frank Slootman of Snowflak&nbsp;eprobably has better bona fides than the&nbsp;Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir- he has, after all , sold one company he founded, Data Domain to EMC for an incredible valuation and he guided Service Now to huge success, and in the process&nbsp;more or less ran over BMC Software&nbsp;which was one of the stalwarts of the enterprise software space for many years.</p>\n<p>The CEO of Palantir is Alex Karp and he co founded the company 17 years ago. He has a host of beliefs that many might consider outside of the mainstream, especially for a company that makes a living selling to the US government and particularly the US military. He has been described as eccentric and I imagine that any self-professed socialist who has built a net worth of almost $2 billion is likely to have an unusual set of values. The fact that he keeps Tai Chi swords in his office-which at times can be in a barn in New Hampshire-while not entirely abnormal amongst tech entrepreneurs, is more than a bit different than the background of Mr. Slootman.</p>\n<p>But company’s such as Palantir are run by teams and there are some extraordinary players on Palantir’s team.Peter Thiel,well known as a co-founder of PayPal (PYPL) and one of the first outside investors in Facebook, also co-founded Palantir and remains on the board. So too,is famed tech investor, Joe Lonsdale&nbsp;who recently said that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “As a director of a public co there are regulations about what you can say – you’re discouraged from speaking up &amp; nobody does in our risk-averse society. But #’s came out yesterday and were misunderstood… we are going to crush the shorts / I am extremely bullish.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>I am not quite sure why Mr. Lonsdale felt that the quarterly results were misinterpreted. Palantir was caught up in a tech rout on the day after its earnings were released. It was just reflecting the sector rotation that has marked much trading in these names .</p>\n<p>Finally,there is Stephen Cohen,another co-founder of Palantir and currently an Executive VP of the company. Famously, at the ripe age of 23, he has been credited with writing the initial prototype of the Palantir platform in all of 8 weeks.</p>\n<p>As must people who know me would agree, I am a somewhat desiccated older curmudgeon, whose acceptance of eccentricities is perhaps less than it should be. But overall, I believe that in evaluating these two companies, there is not all that much to choose. It is a bit easier to conclude that Snowflake has a management structure that will lead to better investor returns simply because of the track record of the CEO. But Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale have made themselves billions and those along for their various rides have done quite well. I can wish that there was less mystery surrounding some parts of the Palantir business, but at the end of the day, I don’t think an investment decision between these two names can be made based on differences in management capabilities.</p>\n<p>Like most other analysts, I try to look at relative valuations in making a recommendation. The fact is that Snowflake still has the highest 12 month forward EV/S ratio of any name I follow, and that valuation is based on a revenue estimate of $1.2 billion. That is a forecast for growth of just over 100% for the next 12 months-and about 10% above the current published consensus for the same period. Despite the forecast for triple digit growth, I wouldn’t find it terribly surprising for Snowflake to continue to exceed estimates-the momentum in its space is just that strong.</p>\n<p>Essentially the problem I have with recommending Snowflake shares is just how much the company will have to grow in order to justify the current valuation-even after the huge haircut of recent months. I have used a 3 year forward CAGR estimate of 70%-I think that is reasonable, if growth this year is over 100% as seems likely.</p>\n<p>Snowflake in its latest reported quarter started&nbsp;to generate free cash flow. To do so, however, it needed to have an enormous growth in its deferred revenue balance-a result that is partially seasonal as its clients renew their agreements. I expect SNOW to generate a modest level of free cash flow in its current year, but that is not going to be a sufficient reason to recommend the shares. In order to generate 70% revenue growth over several years, I anticipate that the company’s ability to generate a substantial free cash flow margin will be challenging. The company will simply have to continue to make outsize investments in sales and marketing and research and development. I imagine that some of that will continue to be part of the company culture even looking out several years; I would not anticipate anything more than average cash flow margins by that time-and those margins could easily be less than average.</p>\n<p>In any event, using a multi-year CAGR of 70%-and then starting the compounding from the base of $1.2 billion of revenues that I anticipate for the current year produces a terminal revenue estimate of about $5.9 billion. I assume that this company will still be enjoying hyper growth at the end of the period-just not at the current elevated levels. I think using a terminal growth rate of 35% is reasonable and even after valuation compression, the average EV/S for that growth rate is 16X. So, that might suggest that the enterprise value for Snowflake 4 years from now ought to be about $94 billion-the enterprise value as of the close on Friday was $56 billion, or thereabouts. That works out to a 14% annualized return. That is certainly far better than such a calculation might recently have been, and far greater than any assumed inflation rate I have seen…but I wonder if it is enough for most investors who are usually looking for something more to be properly compensated for risk in investing in a name such as this.</p>\n<p>A comparable calculation for Palantir starts with estimated revenues of $1.8 billion for the next 12 months. This estimate was revised&nbsp;based on the results that the company reported on 5/11/21. That is considerably greater than the currently published consensus-for 2021 of $1.47 billion-but my estimate goes out an additional quarter and is not burdened by the adherence to the company’s rather mechanical guidance of “greater than 30% for the foreseeable future” which has been the mantra of the company CEO, and which is used by many analysts as a substitute for preparing their own set of expectations.</p>\n<p>Last year, the company reported a 47% growth in revenues and had forecast a 45% growth in revenues for Q1. Q1 revenue growth came to 49%; the company is forecasting 43% revenue growth year on year in the current quarter but given the rather muted sequential growth implied in that forecast (5.6%), I believe it will be exceeded by some noticeable amount. The company reported a free cash flow margin of 34%, a very dramatic change from the negative free cash flow margin reported in 2020.</p>\n<p>While the company saw a decline in its deferred revenue balance in Q1, the more inclusive metric of remaining performance obligation rose by 4.7% sequentially, which is a strong performance given the typical seasonal decline usually seen in that metric in Q1.Overall, calculated billings were up 248%&nbsp;year on year and the year on year increase in the RPO balance came to 129%. These are, in my opinion, strong indicators for future growth.</p>\n<p>Since the time that Palantir became a public company, it has been criticized for the slow growth of its commercial business compared to its government business. But in the last quarter, the company’s US commercial business finally showed some decent growth of 72%. I will cover this subject more fully later on in this article.</p>\n<p>In any event, I have chosen to use a 3 year forward CAGR of 42% in evaluating Palantir, based more on its historical growth than some special knowledge about how fast it might grow. Because of the multiplicity of products and solutions that are enabled by Palantir’s platforms, it can be a bit more difficult to estimate a longer term growth rate than would be the case when dealing with a company whose revenues are coming from a more targeted focus. In any event, using a 42% CAGR, and my current estimate for 12 month forward revenues yields a run -rate estimate 4years out of greater than $5.2 billion. My guess, and I make no representation that it is more than that, is that the company will be still growing in the low 30% range at that point, with a free cash flow margin of greater than 20%.Just to be clear, the cash flow results seen last quarter, while perhaps not enough to suggest a trend, are certainly suggestive of a business model that is potentially very profitable. Taking the estimated cash flow generation into account, the CAGR that I am estimating for Palantir is currently worth an EV/S of about 16X-17X looking at the average EV/S metric for a low 40% growth estimate. In turn, this leads to an enterprise value forecast of about $86 billion compared to last Friday’s enterprise value of $$44.5 billion. This suggests a 4 year return of about 18% compounded, somewhat better than the rate of return I calculate for Snowflake. Snowflake’s elevated valuation simply makes it very difficult to realistically project exceptional long-term returns-even though in many ways Snowflake is an exceptional company operating in an exceptional market.</p>\n<p><b>Where the analysis could be off and what are the risks?</b></p>\n<p>This article is basically about which of the two names I would rather hold or invest in for the long-term. It isn’t a terribly obvious choice-although the numbers, as I see them, suggest that Palantir will relatively outperform Snowflake-mainly because even after a substantial valuation compression, Snowflake shares are still the most expensive name in the IT space in terms of EV/S by a fairly substantial margin. Just to make that point abundantly clear, Snowflake shares, as of the close on Friday, May 21thhad an EV/S ratio based on forward revenues of 53.5X; the next two highest ratios in my coverage universe were those of Bill.com (BILL) at 36.5X and Cloudflare (NET) at 35.9X. Meanwhile, Palantir shares currently sell for an EV/S of 25.5X.</p>\n<p>There are certainly flaws in the investment merits of both companies. I have presented a quantitative model that attempts to deal with the difference in growth rates for the two companies at the present time. But I would be the last analyst on the planet to suggest that I have some crystal ball. I really have no specific way of addressing the potential growth of Snowflake over the next 4 years. I feel reasonably comfortable in suggesting that my use of $1.2 billion for SNOW revenue over the coming 4 quarters is supported both by qualitative comments made by company management and by using sequential quarterly growth estimates that are consistent with recent history. Further, the company’s RPO balance grew to $1.3 billion, up 213% for the year and its DBE ratio was 168%. The RPO balance actually rose by 44% sequentially the latest reported quarter, after rising by 35% sequentially the prior quarter, and the sequential growth in revenues was 19% for the quarter compared to 20% the prior quarter. Given all of those statistics, I felt that forecasting $1.2 billion for the next 4 quarters, compared to the company’s forecast of about $1075 million for the current (2021) year made sense.</p>\n<p>But when it comes to supporting a CAGR of 70% for the 3 years after this one, I would acknowledge that it is somewhat of a guess-and a CAGR of that rate would be breaking new ground in terms of growth at scale. I will be reviewing some of the reasons for the company’s exceptional growth opportunities below-but those specifics are simply not going to allow me, or anyone else, to determine if the most reasonable CAGR is 50% or 70% or some other number. I have yet to see a 3 year CAGR of 70% for a company of this scale. But given that I anticipate that the first year in the forecast period will be nearly 100%, then 70% growth is quite likely and allows for slowing growth as the company’s scale approaches and exceeds a $6 billion revenue run rate.</p>\n<p>Not terribly surprisingly,many analysts rate SNOW shares&nbsp;as a hold although some percentage do rate it as a buy. The issue is almost entirely one of valuation-with a current EV/S of 54X based on the share price of May 28th, at least a plurality of analysts are forecasting some level of multiple compression; it makes price target setting a fraught undertaking.</p>\n<p>There is, perhaps a bit more murkiness, when it comes to evaluating Palantir’s multi-year CAGR and that is a function of the long standing comment of by the CEO, “Per long-term guidance policy, as provided by our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Karp, we continue to expect:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Annual revenue growth of 30% or greater for 2021 through 2025.”</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This comment appears regularly as part of the guidance section in the quarterly earnings release-just my opinion-but I think the company ought to drop the statement or revise it to take some account of what appears to be happening in the market.</p>\n<p>In turn, this has led to consensus forecast that have 2022 revenues rising by just 30%. It should be reasonably obvious that no one owning the shares can believe such a forecast and analysts who recommend the shares can’t really do so with a straight face using a 30% revenue growth estimate.</p>\n<p>That said, Palantir shares certainly don’t have a&nbsp;particularly strong consensus rating&nbsp;compared to many other enterprise software names. First Call suggests that on average the rating is between a hold and an underperform. At the moment, however, only 7 ratings and 8 estimates are being reported to First Call. Most estimates were raised in the wake of the latest earnings report.</p>\n<p>As subscribers are aware, when I try to triangulate some kind of buy/sell hold rating for shares by using some combination of expected future growth rates coupled with free cash flow margins. But in order to even guess responsibly at what a growth rate for a company in the space might be, I try to use some expectation of how the solutions offered are going to create positive ROI for users.</p>\n<p>I will cover below my expectations in that regard but I really see no reason to believe that any long term growth estimate of less than 40% for Palantir is well founded. The company has a rather wide variety of solutions and users seem to be achieving more than acceptable ROI’s when implementing what they have bought. The key to maintaining growth at greater than 40% is self-evidently the market opportunities that are outside of the company’s efforts in its Federal vertical.</p>\n<p>As mentioned, there were some signs of progress last quarter with growth in the US Commercial space reaching 72%. I imagine, however, that many observers and stakeholders might be concerned that the growth in US government revenues which reached 83% last quarter is unlikely to be duplicated in coming periods. Overall, the growth in commercial deal value, after adjustments for duration, was 76%. Overall, the company got $208 million or 61% of its revenues from government entities while the other 39% of its revenues came from commercial customers.</p>\n<p>Before leaving the subject of risk, and perhaps being guilty of restating the obvious, the shares of both companies will perform poorly in a period of rotation favoring value names, and will perform rather well if the rotation favors growth names. Because of their valuation, the shares of these companies will be strongly correlated with the performance of an index of Cloud stocks, so called, such as CLOU until either or both start to generate substantial and sustained free cash flow margins that will start to change the valuation paradigm substantially.</p>\n<p><b>What does Palantir offer its users and how is that resonating in the market?</b></p>\n<p>What I would like to do-but which is not totally feasible-is to run through Palantir’s products and solutions to try to build a reasonable model that supports 40%+ growth. But this company has a multiplicity of platforms in discrete areas, and many more solutions so about all I am going to be able to do is touch the highlights and competition of the areas in which the company competes.</p>\n<p>Palantir offers 3 major product categories. These include&nbsp;Gotham, Foundry and Apollo.I imagine that Foundry is the best known product set offered by Palantir. Foundry is a data integration platform. There are many companies in this space including Boomi, Informatica, MuleSoft/Salesforce (CRM), Oracle (ORCL), Talend (TLND), Tableau/Salesforce and Alteryx (AYX). The data integration market has a relatively pedestrian growth forecast of a bit less than 8% although its size, estimated to be over $11 billion by 2026, is a worthwhile target. How does Palantir stack up? Here is a review of Palantir when compared to the leading data integration platform, Informatica Power Center:Compare Informatica PowerCenter vs Palantir Foundry. From a product perspective, there is nothing striking that would allow Palantir to gain a huge amount of market share in the commercial space.</p>\n<p>Gotham is the heart of the Palantir franchise and the company continues to enhance the platform. While the linked description of the latest launch probably reads a bit like science fiction:Palantir Gotham | 21 Launch, the fact is that in terms of forecasting growth, this is probably where an analyst needs to start. Gotham is essentially big data analytics-with a full panoply of bells and whistles. The Gotham platform is designed to integrate structured data that is contained in rows and columns, as well as unstructured data such as emails, images and videos. It is basically a sophisticated query tool, and may be thought to be competitive with Elastic’s search technology. Here is a competitive analysis of the two solutions:Palantir Gotham.</p>\n<p>The data that is collected using Gotham is integrated and then is mapped into what are meaningfully defined objects-enhanced by the relationships that connect them. From that point, the data is tagged, secured and tracked.</p>\n<p>Gotham is the heart of Palantir’s government practice in that it is often used by agencies looking to “find bad actors hiding in complex networks.” It is the elaboration of that technology that I believe is driving the extremely strong growth of Palantir’s government business, and with the recent breaches at&nbsp;Colonial Pipelineand through SolarWinds (SWI)&nbsp;hack, coupled with aggressive remediation/security efforts, I believe that the very strong growth rates seen by Palantir in its Federal business are likely to continue and remain at hyper-growth levels for some years to come.</p>\n<p>There are many interesting use cases for Gotham that highlight its versatility. The following link shows a variety of use cases as one scrolls through the article:Palantir: Transforming the way organizations use data - CTOvision.com. While the CAGR for big data analytics as projected in the linked study is only around 11%, the size of the space, relative to the size of Palantir is so substantial as to suggest that forecasting hyper growth is quite reasonable:Big Data and Business Analytics Market Size, Share | 2027. There are going to be many winners and leaders in the big data analytic market. Many enterprises are going to roll their own, using some 3rdparty tools such as those on offer from Elastic, for example. Some users will take advantage of the current offering from low code/no code vendors to facilitate building their own applications from the ground up. But the available market for Gotham is still an opportunity many times the current size of Palantir and looking at all of the problems it can solve perhaps gives readers some sense of why I find it reasonable to believe that Palantir will reach $5 billion in revenues over the coming 4 years.</p>\n<p>Apollo is the 3rdmajor platform offered by Palantir although it is more of an enabling technology that is most often used in conjunction with both Gotham and Foundry. It is said to enable the use of SaaS applications where no SaaS applications have gone before.</p>\n<p>Here is a link to a 3rdparty review of the technology:Palantir Apollo. It is because of Apollo, and its ability to deliver software securely into just about any conceivable location from a battlefield to a submarine, that has enabled the company to win some major deals with the US Government customers and particularly the military and security agencies. Here is a link to a specialist 3rdparty consultant that follows technology trends and market share gains and losses amongst vendors to the US government:Competitor highlights: Palantir.</p>\n<p>At the moment, the market addressed by Apollo is not well defined, and there are no publicly available statistics on the size or growth of the space. What I can suggest, is that Apollo is a key differentiator for the company and that the technology is a key factor in the success that the company has had and will likely continue to have in selling to the government and to some commercial enterprises as well.</p>\n<p>Overall, Palantir’s products are aimed at high-end enterprise users. Typical sales are going to be in the millions of dollars, even when looking at the commercial market. Here is a current analysis of prices that Palantir is charging:Palantir Gotham Pricing.</p>\n<p>Many readers will be familiar with the Palantir story; others will not. This is not intended to be a detailed evaluation of the various solution sets that are offered by the company, but might serve to illuminate the likely growth drivers the company has put in place that should resonate strongly with users over the next several years. Palantir advertises solution capabilities in 20 specific areas. I have linked to the solution directory the company presents:Solutions. It would be difficult to categorize the solutions in any meaningful sense.</p>\n<p>Like many software companies at this point, Palantir offers AI capabilities as part of its stack. Whether the form of AI offered by Palantir is better than many other implementations of AI that are nowadays used for many different purposes is not readily determinable.</p>\n<p>These days there are a number of AI focused vendors whose shares have attracted interest. Perhaps the most prominent of these is C3.ai (AI). I think that Palantir’s differentiation is the use cases in which its form of AI is embodied in a specific solution that can create rapid time to benefit for many users. Indeed, I think the fact that Palantir already has a multiplicity of use cases that are based on AI technology coupled with deep learning is one of the reasons that I feel comfortable in forecasting 40%+ growth over some years.</p>\n<p>Overall, I think that the scope of the technology and the success that the company has had in translating that technology into usable solutions for both government and commercial users is likely to enable Palantir to maintain growth of above 40% for sometime into the future.</p>\n<p><b>Why has Snowflake become the fastest growing software companies at scale?</b></p>\n<p>Again, I assume that many readers will be familiar with the Snowflake story and others will not. The key to making a successful investment in Snowflake is not the fact that it is the fastest growing company in the enterprise software space, but in determining just how long that happy state can last, and the ramp that the company will achieve in terms of developing a consistent free cash flow margin. And while I do not purport to be a fortune teller, or even aspire to such a capability, I think looking at the solutions offered by Snowflake can help investors determine just what a long term CAGR might be.</p>\n<p>Here I have linked to a publication from Snowflake called “Data Cloud for Dummies.” I certainly am not intending to cast aspersions on the intellectual prowess of subscribers and general readers, but for those looking for a very quick synopsis of the company’s capabilities and what customers do with Snowflake implementations, this is a go to reference manual:The Data Cloud for Dummies | Snowflake. Most everything an investor might need to know about the Snowflake product offering and differentiation is contained in these few pages. Indeed, investors will not have to read all of this handbook to figure out who is using Snowflake, the benefits they are achieving from deploying the product and the value and capabilities a user can get from using the Snowflake data cloud. Most of that material can be seen on pgs. 18-20 while some selected use cases are described on pgs. 29-41. Most of the rest of the handbook describes how to use the Snowflake data cloud which is not really going to help readers figure out why Snowflake’s revenues and its bookings are rising at triple digit rates.</p>\n<p>The Data Cloud allows users to do many of the things with data that consultants and most IT staff members have wanted to accomplish for the last decade or more. One of the most important attributes of the Data Cloud is its ability to unite siloed data so that organizations can discover what they have and securely share the now governed data. If this sounds something like the data integration capabilities offered by Palantir and others, it is because it is-although the technology is quite a bit different, and with Snowflake everything is cloud native-there is no equivalent to Apollo.</p>\n<p>While security has to be a component of what everyone does with data these days-the Snowflake solutions are more about access and sharing with security as part of the solution while Palantir starts with data security. It is more a matter of emphasis than functionality. I have linked here to an interesting thread that compares the two solutions-note carefully that the initiator of this thread is an original investor in Palantir and needless to say has a viewpoint relative to the merits of the two companies that would be disputed by many:Palantir Tech Platforms vs Snowflake</p>\n<p>Snowflake has plenty of competitors and that has been the case for many years. Many of its wins are competitive displacements and it usually has to battle one or more of the big 3 cloud vendors to secure a deal. The mega-cap cloud companies all offer capabilities that users generally evaluate before choosing Snowflake. Specifically, Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Big Query, Amazon (AMZN) Red Shift and Microsoft (MSFT) Azure SQL Server are competitors. Here is a link by a 3rdparty comparing Google and Snowflake. Essentially, Snowflake is considered the winner:Snowflake vs. BigQuery</p>\n<p>Here is a link comparing Snowflake with Amazon Redshift. I think it is fair to synthesize the comparison with a view that for users with an all-cloud environment, and who have not become overly dependent on Amazon, Snowflake offers a better alternative, although the competition is less unequal than would be the case in looking at Google vs. Snowflake:Redshift vs Snowflake: 6 Key Differences.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the comparison of Snowflake vs. Microsoft Azure. Here the review linked didn’t reach a conclusion. What I think comes through, however, is that the perception is that Snowflake provides higher performance with some critical database features. In any event, in terms of user reviews: Snowflake was a winner:Redshift vs Snowflake: 6 Key Differences.</p>\n<p>Cloud data warehousing is a high growth area-it is essentially the future of most data storage: although hybrid solutions will remain a popular choice. See this link for the reason for the transformation:Cloud Data Warehouse is The Future of Data storage.</p>\n<p>According to a couple of market research vendors, the cloud storage market is likely to achieve a CAGR in the low 20% range for the next several years. The available market is forecast to reach $137 billion at the end of the period. Given the strong user ratings for SNOW, its competitive advantages vis-à-vis the largest competitors, the perception of the company’s functionality in the market and the track record of the company’s leader in past competitive situations, I don’t think the forecast of a multi-year CAGR of 70% is all that much of a stretch.</p>\n<p>I expect that the Snowflake earnings which will be reported while this article is in the review process to significantly exceed the consensus forecast which is for quarterly revenues of $213 million and an EPS loss of $.16. The current consensus calls for sequential growth of just 10% and that seems to be more or less of a sandbag. I see no reason to expect such a muted growth level-either in the reported quarter or in the near future. But that said, much of the enviable performance that Snowflake has achieved, and is likely to achieve going forward is already priced into the shares.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping up: Palantir or Snowflake?</b></p>\n<p>Both Snowflake and Palantir have created advanced IT solutions for their clients. Snowflake has been able to leverage its technology more successfully than Palantir to achieve unheard of growth rates. Part of that is clearly a testament to the leadership of Frank Slootman and his competitive ethos. Part of it is a function of history.</p>\n<p>Just judging by the number of articles on SA, and their generally positive tenor, there are some who feel that users can do more with Palantir’s set of solutions than has been done with Snowflake. Palantir has been designed to be used by government agencies and AI is at the core of the offering. That is somewhat different from Snowflake. The key to Palantir’s ability to achieve hyper growth for years into the future will be the success it has in terms of the commercial market and in non-US geos. The results the company recently reported certainly provide a level of comfort in that regard.</p>\n<p>The key to Snowflake’s continued success will be its continued success in sales execution. Given that the effort is now lead by a very resourceful and aggressive CFO, Frank Slootman, I expect big things.</p>\n<p>As mentioned, I think it’s inevitable that both Snowflake and Palantir will become major IT vendors over time. Unfortunately-what I think, is obviously also thought by many major investors in the IT space. Neither Palantir or Snowflake is likely to be the next Tesla with a valuation more or less unrelated to operational fundamentals. I would never have chosen to write this article if I had much expectation of that kind of frenzy arising. These are both software companies and they can and will be valued by long term investors based on revenue growth and free cash flow generation.</p>\n<p>If I had to pick one investment between these two companies, it would be Palantir-simply because of valuation. But as President Lincoln once said in a far different context, “I do not have to choose either, I can simply leave [her]alone.” In this case the recommendation is to leave the shares alone and look for stronger returns. For those interested in such things-here is the link to President Lincoln’s comment:Fourth Debate: Charleston, Illinois – Lincoln Home National Historic Site (U.S. National Park Service). And at the end of the day, that is my conclusion-find investments in the space with greater percentage upside potential.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Vs. Snowflake: Which Is The Better Buy For Long-Term Investors?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Vs. Snowflake: Which Is The Better Buy For Long-Term Investors?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-31 14:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432000-palantir-stock-vs-snowflake-better-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBig data analytics and decisioning is one of the cornerstones of the digital transformation revolution sweeping through much of the IT firmament.\nThe two leading companies in providing the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432000-palantir-stock-vs-snowflake-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432000-palantir-stock-vs-snowflake-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187518687","content_text":"Summary\n\nBig data analytics and decisioning is one of the cornerstones of the digital transformation revolution sweeping through much of the IT firmament.\nThe two leading companies in providing the building blocks for large data warehouses and for decisioning applications based on big data analytics are Palantir and Snowflake.\nBoth of these companies have already compiled enviable growth records; indeed, the growth Snowflake is enjoying is as rapid as any ramp I have ever seen.\nThe issue for investors is really not the likely success of these companies, or the fact that they are down a great deal from recent post IPO valuations. The issue is their current valuation and future growth.\nMy conclusion, based solely on valuation, is that Palantir will provide a somewhat greater return than Snowflake over the coming years. But in neither case is it likely that long term returns can rise beyond the teens.\n\nPhoto by DKosig/E+ via Getty Images\nA sharp sector rotation affords long-term investors with opportunities not often encountered!\nIt will probably come as no surprise to most readers that the last 3 months have been marked by a very strong sector rotation away from high-growth, high value names to cyclical/reopening names. Even some of the strongest companies have seen their valuations eviscerated over that period. The culprit for the rotation is investor concern with both prior valuations and investor concern about spikes in inflation leading to interest rate increases. The valuation compression is even sharper than it may appear on the surface. Not only are share prices down, but revenue estimates and operational performance are showing very strong positive trends. In most cases, EV/S ratios have fallen by 25% or more and in a few cases the fall has been 50% and even greater. Much like a lake which is plagued by drought, this valuation compression has made visible several islands of opportunity.\nThis is not an article about sector rotation per se, or about the valuation of tech names per se. Have the last several days of trading been a harbinger that sector rotation is ending, or was it simply a long awaited response to several days of extreme valuation compression in the tech space? At some point, the combination of falling share prices and rising growth rates for revenues and free cash flow will obviously lead to a reversal-but lacking 2ndsight, I have to leave that vexed question to others.\nOne of my favorite components of Lincoln’s 2ndinaugural address is the ringing phrase, “fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray.” Now the President was talking about the passing of the scourge of war, and I am writing about the end of a sector rotation. But it has been a difficult period that has scourged the portfolios of many investors and I do hope it will pass away soon.\nOne of the several artifacts of what some might call “The Great Sector Rotation” has been the emergence of several growth names that had been un-investible due to valuation for months or since they became public. This article is focused on two such names, Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)and Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW). These are names that are prominent in the IT space. are amongst the leaders in the Big Data/Analytics space and which have generated remarkable interest amongst many investors and readers of SA. Both of them are quite exceptional companies-but I don’t think either is a particularly remarkable investment. That said, at current valuations (I am using share prices as of 5/24 to calculate my valuation relationships), both of these names can potentially provide investors modest-but double digit long term returns. That is usually less than many tech investors find acceptable-but the visibility and relative stability of both of these companies is an unquantifiable intangible that some may find particularly attractive. Again, entirely based on valuation, and no other factor, Palantir is a more attractive investment-although the calculated return difference compared to Snowflake isn’t huge. Obviously, it is the CAGR differential between businesses that make it so difficult for an observer to make an unqualified choice.\nI want to make clear than when asked for a choice between these two names, my first response would be neither. There are simply better choices in the IT world as potential investments. Investors have a wide choice of names in the space in the wake of the valuation compression and there are different attributes associated with these names.\nFor those investors looking for my choices in the high growth/high valuation segment, I would recommend CrowdStrike (CRWD), Datadog (DDOG). Zscaler (ZI) and ZoomInfo (ZI). Could Snowflake make this list-possibly because it certainly has the highest CAGR of any of the names that I follow. But even using what is essentially a 4 year CAGR of 70% to reach a terminal sales level of more than $6 billion, and a terminal growth rate in the mid-thirty percent range still does not produce super returns for Snowflake because it is hard to do so when the starting point is a valuation of 53X EV/S (as of the close on Monday, May 24th). And forecasting that a company with a $6 billion run rate to continue growth in the mid-30% range is certainly a bit of a reach-although the market that SNOW addresses is enormous and growing.\nFor investors looking for a combination of growth coupled with less than average valuation in terms of their EV/S ratio, choices include names such as Upstart (UPST). Affirm (AFRM), Asana (ASAN), Elastic (ESTC), Wix (WIX) and Jamf (JAMF). Some investors are looking for names with very high free cash flow margins. Here choices include Atlassian (TEAM), Dynatrace (DT), Veeva (VEEV), Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE). Many investors would choose to use some kind of combination of free cash flow margin + growth rate in compiling a buy list. Here, the regnant champion is ZoomInfo (ZI) but perhaps Palantir makes the list-depending on whether the free cash flow metric achieved last quarter was an outlier or represented the start of a trend. Trade Desk (TTD), in the wake of its recent share price compression of 40% since mid-February would also be on this list.\nSome investors look for bargains amongst fairly IPO’s. There are some bargains now to be seen in that sector such as Affirm and also nCino (NCNO) and perhaps Jamf. These are companies whose price action after the IPO took their valuations to unsustainable levels and which have now compressed to what appear to be bargains. I try to approach the recent IPOs with the same methodology as the rest of the names I follow. Inevitably, given the small number of shares in most IPOs, stock prices can subsequently reach dizzying levels as institutions, in particular, look to establish full positions that they were unable to create with an IPO allocation. But once that demand ceases, these names fall, and can do so to very compressed valuations.\nFinally, there are some investors who look for proverbial bargains by screening for percentage declines over some fixed period. That is not a methodology I favor. Many companies can be mis-priced in terms of valuation and so the fact that a name is down a particular percentage is of less importance to me, than how the companies score on EV/S valuation and free cash flow margins. I have seen many articles that focus on either Snowflake or Palantir because of their steep declines during and even before the sector rotation. While it is not uncommon for commentators to use a percentage decline as a screening point, my approach doesn’t value that technique. Specifically, there was no conceivable logical methodology that could have supported the peak valuations of either Snowflake or Palantir, so the fact that they have fallen substantially is not proof-at least to this writer-that they are now reasonably valued.\nI try not to be obsessively tied to formulas in creating a buy list for my own portfolio or for my recommendations. I am, admittedly, biased toward growth, but when I see a combination of growth and free cash flow margin, I can fall in love-at least figuratively. (Sort of like Daumier’s famous lithograph, “Fusion des Compagnies. Effusion des actionnaires. (Les Beaux Jours de la Vie), from Le Charivari, Honoré Daumier ^ Minneapolis Institute of Art. I use some combination of all approaches in compiling my own list of names that I think are buy rated. I don’t include any megacap names, more because I think their investment merits are well recognized and there isn’t too much in the way of value add that I might provide.\nTo repeat: both Palantir and Snowflake are and will remain remarkable businesses that are revolutionizing the way software is used in both government and commercial applications. Bringing storage to the cloud the way it is done by Snowflake is hastening digital transformation and making it easier to migrate workloads to the cloud-a significant priority for many-probably most enterprise users of IT. The combination of data integration, AI and search which enable users to find patterns and develop useful insights is achieving some of the more “Buck Rogerish” dreams of software engineers and ultimately all classes of users.\nBut having said that, it is still necessary to look at growth and cash flow to arrive at a valuation and while the valuation compression has led to opportunities, the opportunities are not of the once in a generation scale. Investors who want to own the best companies frequently are going to be asked to sacrifice some percentage upside to buy the best of the breed, and that is what I see here, regardless of my admiration of the offerings of both companies.\nOne thing to note: I would be greatly surprised if either Palantir or Snowflake will precisely look the way they do at this writing. They are going to wind up making acquisitions-I doubt that valuations and chemistry would allow either company to be acquired. Speculating about acquisitions is a fun parlor trick, but not something that can really be forecast with any degree of specificity. But one reason as to why I have suggested that these companies will continue to grow at elevated rates relates to my belief that there will be some element of inorganic revenue in the results of both companies 4 years from now.\nThe background of Snowflake and Palantir\nBoth of these businesses have been and remain high growth companies with strong technology moats and a host of the most prominent IT users in the world. Palantir reported recent results that swung strongly to free cash generation; SNOW is perhaps the fastest growing name I have seen at scale. And the shares of both companies have seen rather substantial compression. Since the rotation began in early/mid-February, shares of Snowflake have fallen as much as 39% before bouncing 11.5% on Friday, May 14th partially due to a new recommendation from the analyst at Goldman Sachs.Shares of Palantir had fallen as much as 53% before its bounce 9.3% on Friday May 14th.\nBoth of these companies seem destined to be major factors in the software over the course of the coming years. Over time, as they mature, I expect that both of these company’s will evolve highly profitable business models. Based strictly on the way I value companies, I find the shares of Palantir to be more attractive to investors than the shares of Snowflake-even though self-evidently, Snowflake is growing faster than Palantir. I believe that long-term investors will achieve a somewhat greater return investing in Palantir than in Snowflake-but the difference isn’t huge and speculating about an end-result 4 years from now is inevitably a fraught undertaking.\nI have been frequently asked by subscribers to my Ticker Target service. by investment advisory clients and by readers of SA articles to provide some opinion on both of these companies with a plurality inquiring about Palantir. For months, until now, I haven’t chosen to make much of a response given the valuations have been of a magnitude that made any kind of positive recommendation more faith based than logical.\nTrying to find a formula for relative valuations\nLet’s face it-trying to decide between the investment merits of two companies with a great base of IP, addressing hot spaces within the enterprise software space is a bit like handicapping the results of sporting events before the start of a season. There is loads of pure guesswork and less substance than most would like. Many analysts demur doing something like this-or if they are like me, they suggest to clients that there is no reason just to own a single name of this kind in a portfolio. I am going to attempt to present some qualitative as well as quantitative analysis-but in the nature of things it will be subjective.\nOne consideration is always management. Does either Palantir or Snowflake have better management?Frank Slootman of Snowflak eprobably has better bona fides than the Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir- he has, after all , sold one company he founded, Data Domain to EMC for an incredible valuation and he guided Service Now to huge success, and in the process more or less ran over BMC Software which was one of the stalwarts of the enterprise software space for many years.\nThe CEO of Palantir is Alex Karp and he co founded the company 17 years ago. He has a host of beliefs that many might consider outside of the mainstream, especially for a company that makes a living selling to the US government and particularly the US military. He has been described as eccentric and I imagine that any self-professed socialist who has built a net worth of almost $2 billion is likely to have an unusual set of values. The fact that he keeps Tai Chi swords in his office-which at times can be in a barn in New Hampshire-while not entirely abnormal amongst tech entrepreneurs, is more than a bit different than the background of Mr. Slootman.\nBut company’s such as Palantir are run by teams and there are some extraordinary players on Palantir’s team.Peter Thiel,well known as a co-founder of PayPal (PYPL) and one of the first outside investors in Facebook, also co-founded Palantir and remains on the board. So too,is famed tech investor, Joe Lonsdale who recently said that:\n\n “As a director of a public co there are regulations about what you can say – you’re discouraged from speaking up & nobody does in our risk-averse society. But #’s came out yesterday and were misunderstood… we are going to crush the shorts / I am extremely bullish.\"\n\nI am not quite sure why Mr. Lonsdale felt that the quarterly results were misinterpreted. Palantir was caught up in a tech rout on the day after its earnings were released. It was just reflecting the sector rotation that has marked much trading in these names .\nFinally,there is Stephen Cohen,another co-founder of Palantir and currently an Executive VP of the company. Famously, at the ripe age of 23, he has been credited with writing the initial prototype of the Palantir platform in all of 8 weeks.\nAs must people who know me would agree, I am a somewhat desiccated older curmudgeon, whose acceptance of eccentricities is perhaps less than it should be. But overall, I believe that in evaluating these two companies, there is not all that much to choose. It is a bit easier to conclude that Snowflake has a management structure that will lead to better investor returns simply because of the track record of the CEO. But Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale have made themselves billions and those along for their various rides have done quite well. I can wish that there was less mystery surrounding some parts of the Palantir business, but at the end of the day, I don’t think an investment decision between these two names can be made based on differences in management capabilities.\nLike most other analysts, I try to look at relative valuations in making a recommendation. The fact is that Snowflake still has the highest 12 month forward EV/S ratio of any name I follow, and that valuation is based on a revenue estimate of $1.2 billion. That is a forecast for growth of just over 100% for the next 12 months-and about 10% above the current published consensus for the same period. Despite the forecast for triple digit growth, I wouldn’t find it terribly surprising for Snowflake to continue to exceed estimates-the momentum in its space is just that strong.\nEssentially the problem I have with recommending Snowflake shares is just how much the company will have to grow in order to justify the current valuation-even after the huge haircut of recent months. I have used a 3 year forward CAGR estimate of 70%-I think that is reasonable, if growth this year is over 100% as seems likely.\nSnowflake in its latest reported quarter started to generate free cash flow. To do so, however, it needed to have an enormous growth in its deferred revenue balance-a result that is partially seasonal as its clients renew their agreements. I expect SNOW to generate a modest level of free cash flow in its current year, but that is not going to be a sufficient reason to recommend the shares. In order to generate 70% revenue growth over several years, I anticipate that the company’s ability to generate a substantial free cash flow margin will be challenging. The company will simply have to continue to make outsize investments in sales and marketing and research and development. I imagine that some of that will continue to be part of the company culture even looking out several years; I would not anticipate anything more than average cash flow margins by that time-and those margins could easily be less than average.\nIn any event, using a multi-year CAGR of 70%-and then starting the compounding from the base of $1.2 billion of revenues that I anticipate for the current year produces a terminal revenue estimate of about $5.9 billion. I assume that this company will still be enjoying hyper growth at the end of the period-just not at the current elevated levels. I think using a terminal growth rate of 35% is reasonable and even after valuation compression, the average EV/S for that growth rate is 16X. So, that might suggest that the enterprise value for Snowflake 4 years from now ought to be about $94 billion-the enterprise value as of the close on Friday was $56 billion, or thereabouts. That works out to a 14% annualized return. That is certainly far better than such a calculation might recently have been, and far greater than any assumed inflation rate I have seen…but I wonder if it is enough for most investors who are usually looking for something more to be properly compensated for risk in investing in a name such as this.\nA comparable calculation for Palantir starts with estimated revenues of $1.8 billion for the next 12 months. This estimate was revised based on the results that the company reported on 5/11/21. That is considerably greater than the currently published consensus-for 2021 of $1.47 billion-but my estimate goes out an additional quarter and is not burdened by the adherence to the company’s rather mechanical guidance of “greater than 30% for the foreseeable future” which has been the mantra of the company CEO, and which is used by many analysts as a substitute for preparing their own set of expectations.\nLast year, the company reported a 47% growth in revenues and had forecast a 45% growth in revenues for Q1. Q1 revenue growth came to 49%; the company is forecasting 43% revenue growth year on year in the current quarter but given the rather muted sequential growth implied in that forecast (5.6%), I believe it will be exceeded by some noticeable amount. The company reported a free cash flow margin of 34%, a very dramatic change from the negative free cash flow margin reported in 2020.\nWhile the company saw a decline in its deferred revenue balance in Q1, the more inclusive metric of remaining performance obligation rose by 4.7% sequentially, which is a strong performance given the typical seasonal decline usually seen in that metric in Q1.Overall, calculated billings were up 248% year on year and the year on year increase in the RPO balance came to 129%. These are, in my opinion, strong indicators for future growth.\nSince the time that Palantir became a public company, it has been criticized for the slow growth of its commercial business compared to its government business. But in the last quarter, the company’s US commercial business finally showed some decent growth of 72%. I will cover this subject more fully later on in this article.\nIn any event, I have chosen to use a 3 year forward CAGR of 42% in evaluating Palantir, based more on its historical growth than some special knowledge about how fast it might grow. Because of the multiplicity of products and solutions that are enabled by Palantir’s platforms, it can be a bit more difficult to estimate a longer term growth rate than would be the case when dealing with a company whose revenues are coming from a more targeted focus. In any event, using a 42% CAGR, and my current estimate for 12 month forward revenues yields a run -rate estimate 4years out of greater than $5.2 billion. My guess, and I make no representation that it is more than that, is that the company will be still growing in the low 30% range at that point, with a free cash flow margin of greater than 20%.Just to be clear, the cash flow results seen last quarter, while perhaps not enough to suggest a trend, are certainly suggestive of a business model that is potentially very profitable. Taking the estimated cash flow generation into account, the CAGR that I am estimating for Palantir is currently worth an EV/S of about 16X-17X looking at the average EV/S metric for a low 40% growth estimate. In turn, this leads to an enterprise value forecast of about $86 billion compared to last Friday’s enterprise value of $$44.5 billion. This suggests a 4 year return of about 18% compounded, somewhat better than the rate of return I calculate for Snowflake. Snowflake’s elevated valuation simply makes it very difficult to realistically project exceptional long-term returns-even though in many ways Snowflake is an exceptional company operating in an exceptional market.\nWhere the analysis could be off and what are the risks?\nThis article is basically about which of the two names I would rather hold or invest in for the long-term. It isn’t a terribly obvious choice-although the numbers, as I see them, suggest that Palantir will relatively outperform Snowflake-mainly because even after a substantial valuation compression, Snowflake shares are still the most expensive name in the IT space in terms of EV/S by a fairly substantial margin. Just to make that point abundantly clear, Snowflake shares, as of the close on Friday, May 21thhad an EV/S ratio based on forward revenues of 53.5X; the next two highest ratios in my coverage universe were those of Bill.com (BILL) at 36.5X and Cloudflare (NET) at 35.9X. Meanwhile, Palantir shares currently sell for an EV/S of 25.5X.\nThere are certainly flaws in the investment merits of both companies. I have presented a quantitative model that attempts to deal with the difference in growth rates for the two companies at the present time. But I would be the last analyst on the planet to suggest that I have some crystal ball. I really have no specific way of addressing the potential growth of Snowflake over the next 4 years. I feel reasonably comfortable in suggesting that my use of $1.2 billion for SNOW revenue over the coming 4 quarters is supported both by qualitative comments made by company management and by using sequential quarterly growth estimates that are consistent with recent history. Further, the company’s RPO balance grew to $1.3 billion, up 213% for the year and its DBE ratio was 168%. The RPO balance actually rose by 44% sequentially the latest reported quarter, after rising by 35% sequentially the prior quarter, and the sequential growth in revenues was 19% for the quarter compared to 20% the prior quarter. Given all of those statistics, I felt that forecasting $1.2 billion for the next 4 quarters, compared to the company’s forecast of about $1075 million for the current (2021) year made sense.\nBut when it comes to supporting a CAGR of 70% for the 3 years after this one, I would acknowledge that it is somewhat of a guess-and a CAGR of that rate would be breaking new ground in terms of growth at scale. I will be reviewing some of the reasons for the company’s exceptional growth opportunities below-but those specifics are simply not going to allow me, or anyone else, to determine if the most reasonable CAGR is 50% or 70% or some other number. I have yet to see a 3 year CAGR of 70% for a company of this scale. But given that I anticipate that the first year in the forecast period will be nearly 100%, then 70% growth is quite likely and allows for slowing growth as the company’s scale approaches and exceeds a $6 billion revenue run rate.\nNot terribly surprisingly,many analysts rate SNOW shares as a hold although some percentage do rate it as a buy. The issue is almost entirely one of valuation-with a current EV/S of 54X based on the share price of May 28th, at least a plurality of analysts are forecasting some level of multiple compression; it makes price target setting a fraught undertaking.\nThere is, perhaps a bit more murkiness, when it comes to evaluating Palantir’s multi-year CAGR and that is a function of the long standing comment of by the CEO, “Per long-term guidance policy, as provided by our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Karp, we continue to expect:\n\nAnnual revenue growth of 30% or greater for 2021 through 2025.”\n\nThis comment appears regularly as part of the guidance section in the quarterly earnings release-just my opinion-but I think the company ought to drop the statement or revise it to take some account of what appears to be happening in the market.\nIn turn, this has led to consensus forecast that have 2022 revenues rising by just 30%. It should be reasonably obvious that no one owning the shares can believe such a forecast and analysts who recommend the shares can’t really do so with a straight face using a 30% revenue growth estimate.\nThat said, Palantir shares certainly don’t have a particularly strong consensus rating compared to many other enterprise software names. First Call suggests that on average the rating is between a hold and an underperform. At the moment, however, only 7 ratings and 8 estimates are being reported to First Call. Most estimates were raised in the wake of the latest earnings report.\nAs subscribers are aware, when I try to triangulate some kind of buy/sell hold rating for shares by using some combination of expected future growth rates coupled with free cash flow margins. But in order to even guess responsibly at what a growth rate for a company in the space might be, I try to use some expectation of how the solutions offered are going to create positive ROI for users.\nI will cover below my expectations in that regard but I really see no reason to believe that any long term growth estimate of less than 40% for Palantir is well founded. The company has a rather wide variety of solutions and users seem to be achieving more than acceptable ROI’s when implementing what they have bought. The key to maintaining growth at greater than 40% is self-evidently the market opportunities that are outside of the company’s efforts in its Federal vertical.\nAs mentioned, there were some signs of progress last quarter with growth in the US Commercial space reaching 72%. I imagine, however, that many observers and stakeholders might be concerned that the growth in US government revenues which reached 83% last quarter is unlikely to be duplicated in coming periods. Overall, the growth in commercial deal value, after adjustments for duration, was 76%. Overall, the company got $208 million or 61% of its revenues from government entities while the other 39% of its revenues came from commercial customers.\nBefore leaving the subject of risk, and perhaps being guilty of restating the obvious, the shares of both companies will perform poorly in a period of rotation favoring value names, and will perform rather well if the rotation favors growth names. Because of their valuation, the shares of these companies will be strongly correlated with the performance of an index of Cloud stocks, so called, such as CLOU until either or both start to generate substantial and sustained free cash flow margins that will start to change the valuation paradigm substantially.\nWhat does Palantir offer its users and how is that resonating in the market?\nWhat I would like to do-but which is not totally feasible-is to run through Palantir’s products and solutions to try to build a reasonable model that supports 40%+ growth. But this company has a multiplicity of platforms in discrete areas, and many more solutions so about all I am going to be able to do is touch the highlights and competition of the areas in which the company competes.\nPalantir offers 3 major product categories. These include Gotham, Foundry and Apollo.I imagine that Foundry is the best known product set offered by Palantir. Foundry is a data integration platform. There are many companies in this space including Boomi, Informatica, MuleSoft/Salesforce (CRM), Oracle (ORCL), Talend (TLND), Tableau/Salesforce and Alteryx (AYX). The data integration market has a relatively pedestrian growth forecast of a bit less than 8% although its size, estimated to be over $11 billion by 2026, is a worthwhile target. How does Palantir stack up? Here is a review of Palantir when compared to the leading data integration platform, Informatica Power Center:Compare Informatica PowerCenter vs Palantir Foundry. From a product perspective, there is nothing striking that would allow Palantir to gain a huge amount of market share in the commercial space.\nGotham is the heart of the Palantir franchise and the company continues to enhance the platform. While the linked description of the latest launch probably reads a bit like science fiction:Palantir Gotham | 21 Launch, the fact is that in terms of forecasting growth, this is probably where an analyst needs to start. Gotham is essentially big data analytics-with a full panoply of bells and whistles. The Gotham platform is designed to integrate structured data that is contained in rows and columns, as well as unstructured data such as emails, images and videos. It is basically a sophisticated query tool, and may be thought to be competitive with Elastic’s search technology. Here is a competitive analysis of the two solutions:Palantir Gotham.\nThe data that is collected using Gotham is integrated and then is mapped into what are meaningfully defined objects-enhanced by the relationships that connect them. From that point, the data is tagged, secured and tracked.\nGotham is the heart of Palantir’s government practice in that it is often used by agencies looking to “find bad actors hiding in complex networks.” It is the elaboration of that technology that I believe is driving the extremely strong growth of Palantir’s government business, and with the recent breaches at Colonial Pipelineand through SolarWinds (SWI) hack, coupled with aggressive remediation/security efforts, I believe that the very strong growth rates seen by Palantir in its Federal business are likely to continue and remain at hyper-growth levels for some years to come.\nThere are many interesting use cases for Gotham that highlight its versatility. The following link shows a variety of use cases as one scrolls through the article:Palantir: Transforming the way organizations use data - CTOvision.com. While the CAGR for big data analytics as projected in the linked study is only around 11%, the size of the space, relative to the size of Palantir is so substantial as to suggest that forecasting hyper growth is quite reasonable:Big Data and Business Analytics Market Size, Share | 2027. There are going to be many winners and leaders in the big data analytic market. Many enterprises are going to roll their own, using some 3rdparty tools such as those on offer from Elastic, for example. Some users will take advantage of the current offering from low code/no code vendors to facilitate building their own applications from the ground up. But the available market for Gotham is still an opportunity many times the current size of Palantir and looking at all of the problems it can solve perhaps gives readers some sense of why I find it reasonable to believe that Palantir will reach $5 billion in revenues over the coming 4 years.\nApollo is the 3rdmajor platform offered by Palantir although it is more of an enabling technology that is most often used in conjunction with both Gotham and Foundry. It is said to enable the use of SaaS applications where no SaaS applications have gone before.\nHere is a link to a 3rdparty review of the technology:Palantir Apollo. It is because of Apollo, and its ability to deliver software securely into just about any conceivable location from a battlefield to a submarine, that has enabled the company to win some major deals with the US Government customers and particularly the military and security agencies. Here is a link to a specialist 3rdparty consultant that follows technology trends and market share gains and losses amongst vendors to the US government:Competitor highlights: Palantir.\nAt the moment, the market addressed by Apollo is not well defined, and there are no publicly available statistics on the size or growth of the space. What I can suggest, is that Apollo is a key differentiator for the company and that the technology is a key factor in the success that the company has had and will likely continue to have in selling to the government and to some commercial enterprises as well.\nOverall, Palantir’s products are aimed at high-end enterprise users. Typical sales are going to be in the millions of dollars, even when looking at the commercial market. Here is a current analysis of prices that Palantir is charging:Palantir Gotham Pricing.\nMany readers will be familiar with the Palantir story; others will not. This is not intended to be a detailed evaluation of the various solution sets that are offered by the company, but might serve to illuminate the likely growth drivers the company has put in place that should resonate strongly with users over the next several years. Palantir advertises solution capabilities in 20 specific areas. I have linked to the solution directory the company presents:Solutions. It would be difficult to categorize the solutions in any meaningful sense.\nLike many software companies at this point, Palantir offers AI capabilities as part of its stack. Whether the form of AI offered by Palantir is better than many other implementations of AI that are nowadays used for many different purposes is not readily determinable.\nThese days there are a number of AI focused vendors whose shares have attracted interest. Perhaps the most prominent of these is C3.ai (AI). I think that Palantir’s differentiation is the use cases in which its form of AI is embodied in a specific solution that can create rapid time to benefit for many users. Indeed, I think the fact that Palantir already has a multiplicity of use cases that are based on AI technology coupled with deep learning is one of the reasons that I feel comfortable in forecasting 40%+ growth over some years.\nOverall, I think that the scope of the technology and the success that the company has had in translating that technology into usable solutions for both government and commercial users is likely to enable Palantir to maintain growth of above 40% for sometime into the future.\nWhy has Snowflake become the fastest growing software companies at scale?\nAgain, I assume that many readers will be familiar with the Snowflake story and others will not. The key to making a successful investment in Snowflake is not the fact that it is the fastest growing company in the enterprise software space, but in determining just how long that happy state can last, and the ramp that the company will achieve in terms of developing a consistent free cash flow margin. And while I do not purport to be a fortune teller, or even aspire to such a capability, I think looking at the solutions offered by Snowflake can help investors determine just what a long term CAGR might be.\nHere I have linked to a publication from Snowflake called “Data Cloud for Dummies.” I certainly am not intending to cast aspersions on the intellectual prowess of subscribers and general readers, but for those looking for a very quick synopsis of the company’s capabilities and what customers do with Snowflake implementations, this is a go to reference manual:The Data Cloud for Dummies | Snowflake. Most everything an investor might need to know about the Snowflake product offering and differentiation is contained in these few pages. Indeed, investors will not have to read all of this handbook to figure out who is using Snowflake, the benefits they are achieving from deploying the product and the value and capabilities a user can get from using the Snowflake data cloud. Most of that material can be seen on pgs. 18-20 while some selected use cases are described on pgs. 29-41. Most of the rest of the handbook describes how to use the Snowflake data cloud which is not really going to help readers figure out why Snowflake’s revenues and its bookings are rising at triple digit rates.\nThe Data Cloud allows users to do many of the things with data that consultants and most IT staff members have wanted to accomplish for the last decade or more. One of the most important attributes of the Data Cloud is its ability to unite siloed data so that organizations can discover what they have and securely share the now governed data. If this sounds something like the data integration capabilities offered by Palantir and others, it is because it is-although the technology is quite a bit different, and with Snowflake everything is cloud native-there is no equivalent to Apollo.\nWhile security has to be a component of what everyone does with data these days-the Snowflake solutions are more about access and sharing with security as part of the solution while Palantir starts with data security. It is more a matter of emphasis than functionality. I have linked here to an interesting thread that compares the two solutions-note carefully that the initiator of this thread is an original investor in Palantir and needless to say has a viewpoint relative to the merits of the two companies that would be disputed by many:Palantir Tech Platforms vs Snowflake\nSnowflake has plenty of competitors and that has been the case for many years. Many of its wins are competitive displacements and it usually has to battle one or more of the big 3 cloud vendors to secure a deal. The mega-cap cloud companies all offer capabilities that users generally evaluate before choosing Snowflake. Specifically, Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Big Query, Amazon (AMZN) Red Shift and Microsoft (MSFT) Azure SQL Server are competitors. Here is a link by a 3rdparty comparing Google and Snowflake. Essentially, Snowflake is considered the winner:Snowflake vs. BigQuery\nHere is a link comparing Snowflake with Amazon Redshift. I think it is fair to synthesize the comparison with a view that for users with an all-cloud environment, and who have not become overly dependent on Amazon, Snowflake offers a better alternative, although the competition is less unequal than would be the case in looking at Google vs. Snowflake:Redshift vs Snowflake: 6 Key Differences.\nFinally, there is the comparison of Snowflake vs. Microsoft Azure. Here the review linked didn’t reach a conclusion. What I think comes through, however, is that the perception is that Snowflake provides higher performance with some critical database features. In any event, in terms of user reviews: Snowflake was a winner:Redshift vs Snowflake: 6 Key Differences.\nCloud data warehousing is a high growth area-it is essentially the future of most data storage: although hybrid solutions will remain a popular choice. See this link for the reason for the transformation:Cloud Data Warehouse is The Future of Data storage.\nAccording to a couple of market research vendors, the cloud storage market is likely to achieve a CAGR in the low 20% range for the next several years. The available market is forecast to reach $137 billion at the end of the period. Given the strong user ratings for SNOW, its competitive advantages vis-à-vis the largest competitors, the perception of the company’s functionality in the market and the track record of the company’s leader in past competitive situations, I don’t think the forecast of a multi-year CAGR of 70% is all that much of a stretch.\nI expect that the Snowflake earnings which will be reported while this article is in the review process to significantly exceed the consensus forecast which is for quarterly revenues of $213 million and an EPS loss of $.16. The current consensus calls for sequential growth of just 10% and that seems to be more or less of a sandbag. I see no reason to expect such a muted growth level-either in the reported quarter or in the near future. But that said, much of the enviable performance that Snowflake has achieved, and is likely to achieve going forward is already priced into the shares.\nWrapping up: Palantir or Snowflake?\nBoth Snowflake and Palantir have created advanced IT solutions for their clients. Snowflake has been able to leverage its technology more successfully than Palantir to achieve unheard of growth rates. Part of that is clearly a testament to the leadership of Frank Slootman and his competitive ethos. Part of it is a function of history.\nJust judging by the number of articles on SA, and their generally positive tenor, there are some who feel that users can do more with Palantir’s set of solutions than has been done with Snowflake. Palantir has been designed to be used by government agencies and AI is at the core of the offering. That is somewhat different from Snowflake. The key to Palantir’s ability to achieve hyper growth for years into the future will be the success it has in terms of the commercial market and in non-US geos. The results the company recently reported certainly provide a level of comfort in that regard.\nThe key to Snowflake’s continued success will be its continued success in sales execution. Given that the effort is now lead by a very resourceful and aggressive CFO, Frank Slootman, I expect big things.\nAs mentioned, I think it’s inevitable that both Snowflake and Palantir will become major IT vendors over time. Unfortunately-what I think, is obviously also thought by many major investors in the IT space. Neither Palantir or Snowflake is likely to be the next Tesla with a valuation more or less unrelated to operational fundamentals. I would never have chosen to write this article if I had much expectation of that kind of frenzy arising. These are both software companies and they can and will be valued by long term investors based on revenue growth and free cash flow generation.\nIf I had to pick one investment between these two companies, it would be Palantir-simply because of valuation. But as President Lincoln once said in a far different context, “I do not have to choose either, I can simply leave [her]alone.” In this case the recommendation is to leave the shares alone and look for stronger returns. For those interested in such things-here is the link to President Lincoln’s comment:Fourth Debate: Charleston, Illinois – Lincoln Home National Historic Site (U.S. National Park Service). And at the end of the day, that is my conclusion-find investments in the space with greater percentage upside potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195062195,"gmtCreate":1621240773517,"gmtModify":1704354471107,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195062195","repostId":"1149212873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149212873","pubTimestamp":1621240557,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149212873?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-17 16:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Risky And Expensive","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149212873","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and t","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and the large number of risks associated with.</li>\n <li>The company's financial metrics and the nature of their work are both shrouded in mystery.</li>\n <li>The company's addressable market may be limited by government and companies' willingness to give it access to sensitive data.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5f30934b528b40d7581fde436747dc\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Photo by Anna Bliokh/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) just reported a good quarter and plenty have been written about that and other short-term considerations. This article will instead focus on the fundamentals and help investors understand the actual business behind the stock, and the risks of owning it -- and there are many.</p>\n<p><b>Business</b></p>\n<p>Palantir addresses a common problem faced by large organizations: unlocking the value of siloed data from disparate systems. The company sells an end-to-end software platform and consulting services to an addressable market sized at $119 billion.</p>\n<p>Since each large organization has a unique combination of legacy IT systems, unlocking the value of data requires expensive and time-consuming consulting projects to build custom software. This reality is why Palantir began as more of a consulting firm rather than a software firm (and it still is considered a consulting company by some investors).</p>\n<p>The company would send consultants to connect, integrate and organize data from across the customer organization, creating a central operating system for data.</p>\n<p>The company has two flagship platform offerings: Gotham and Foundry. The Gotham product is sold mainly to government customers while Foundry is sold to commercial customers. Both platforms are full-stack, vertically integrated, and deployable in the public and private cloud, on-premise or on classified networks (air-gapped networks), edge devices, laptops, and specialized hardware. Both platforms have specific user-facing applications for different industries.</p>\n<p>Gotham, released in 2008, is a platform with multiple applications, including Graph, Gaia, Dossier, Stencil, Video, Table, Ava, Forward, and Mobile. Use cases include planning military missions, tax return analysis to uncover tax evaders, and mapping out criminal networks.</p>\n<p>Foundry, released in 2016, is also a platform with multiple applications, including Monocle, Contour, Object Explorer, Fusion, Workshop, Vertex, Code Authoring, Quiver, Code Workbooks, and Reports. Use cases include increasing aircraft design, trending defect detection in manufacturing plants, and risk management within financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Underlying Gotham and Foundry is Apollo, a continuous delivery and product infrastructure platform which allows the company to deploy air-gapped and on-premise networks at approximately the same speed as in the field. This is important given the siloed nature of data within large customers, which could grind data integration to a halt.</p>\n<p>Pricing for Palantir products is opaque. The company says they price based off of the estimated value Palantir expects its software platforms to deliver to the customer, and how much the customer would have to pay for a consulting firm to build a custom solution.</p>\n<p>Since 2018, the company has been investing in account-based sales force to bring in new customers and to expand within existing customers. The company's field sales force is only around 3-4% of headcount, so this number has room to move up.</p>\n<p><b>Market Opportunity</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's management sizes their total addressable market is at $119 billion, which includes $63 billion from government and $56 billion from commercial.</p>\n<p>The government market consists of $26 billion domestic and $37 billion international. The commercial market estimate is based potential customers: 6,000 enterprises with over $500 million in revenue and PLTR's estimated annual contract value per customer.</p>\n<p>The company's addressable market is heavily dependent on domestic politics and geopolitics. The company's mission is to serve the U.S. and its allies, which obviously does not include selling into the large defense budgets of China and Russia. In addition, U.S. allies' desire to gain more sovereignty and reduce reliance on the U.S. may impede adoption of Palantir's platforms.</p>\n<p>Domestically, the company benefited significantly from the 1994 passing of the Federal Streaming Acquisition Act (FASA). Section 2377 requires the federal government to consider and acquire proven and available commercial items in the market \"to the maximum extend possible\". This rule was largely ignored until 2016 when Palantir successfully sued the US Army to enforce the law (Palantir v. United States).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with investing in Palantir, which I don't feel is appreciated by the market given the company's high valuation and retail adoration.</p>\n<p>Palantir is more of a service company that does not empower customers to maintain their own data/AI systems, which can be a problem for certain commercial customers. Palantir sells a \"full stack\" technology offering, which is appealing to government agencies but not commercial customers, who are accustomed to buying best-of-breed software.</p>\n<p>Palantir must host customer data in order to integrate it, which can be a problem in certain industries that are subject to privacy regulations.</p>\n<p>Palantir solutions are expensive with an average contract value of $5-6 million. High prices may limit Palantir's addressable market. Reliance on large deals also makes revenue growth lumpy and more difficult to predict.</p>\n<p>Palantir has significant customer concentration risk. In the S-1, the company disclosed that its top 20 customers accounted for 76% of revenue.</p>\n<p>Palantir's addressable market depends heavily on domestic and geopolitics. U.S. allies are increasingly seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. in both business (i.e. cracking down on US's tech giants) and defense and may be hesitant to give Palantir access to their most sensitive data.</p>\n<p>Palantir is opaque and discloses significantly fewer financial metrics to investors than peers. This is maybe due to the nature of its business, which deals with highly sensitive information, however, this leaves investors in the dark.</p>\n<p>Palantir may also face significant ESG problems, which is increasingly important as ESG investing is rapidly gaining in popularity. Not only is Palantir a defense contractor, but it also provides surveillance analytics and has a history of being marred by&nbsp;controversies.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's valuation has fluctuated wildly, reflecting the manic bull market we are in currently.</p>\n<p>When the company went public through a direct listing on 9/30/2020, the company traded at around 78 times forward consensus EPS and 12 times enterprise value to forward sales. The stock caught the attention of retail investors and traded to a peak of over 330 times forward EPS and over 47 times sales by January 2021. Currently, the stock is trading at 121 times forward EPS and 22 times forward sales. I frankly have no idea what the valuation of this company ought to be, and neither does the market.</p>\n<p>For this nose-bleed valuation, you get an expected 35% revenue growth in 2021, a growth rate that bulls expect to be sustained for multiple years, and only modest EPS growth through 2023 as the company reported $0.19 in non-GAAP EPS in 2020 but is expected to only generate $0.26 by 2023. Note that GAAP EPS is still deep in the red.</p>\n<p>While often very expensive stocks are expected to easily beat consensus estimates, I'm not so sure about Palantir. From 2016 through 2020, the company only grew revenues by a compounded annual growth of 24%.</p>\n<p>Palantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and the large number of risks associated with holding the stock.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Risky And Expensive</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Risky And Expensive\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-17 16:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429166-palantir-stock-pltr-risky-and-expensive><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and the large number of risks associated with.\nThe company's financial metrics and the nature of their ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429166-palantir-stock-pltr-risky-and-expensive\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429166-palantir-stock-pltr-risky-and-expensive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1149212873","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and the large number of risks associated with.\nThe company's financial metrics and the nature of their work are both shrouded in mystery.\nThe company's addressable market may be limited by government and companies' willingness to give it access to sensitive data.\n\nPhoto by Anna Bliokh/E+ via Getty Images\nPalantir (PLTR) just reported a good quarter and plenty have been written about that and other short-term considerations. This article will instead focus on the fundamentals and help investors understand the actual business behind the stock, and the risks of owning it -- and there are many.\nBusiness\nPalantir addresses a common problem faced by large organizations: unlocking the value of siloed data from disparate systems. The company sells an end-to-end software platform and consulting services to an addressable market sized at $119 billion.\nSince each large organization has a unique combination of legacy IT systems, unlocking the value of data requires expensive and time-consuming consulting projects to build custom software. This reality is why Palantir began as more of a consulting firm rather than a software firm (and it still is considered a consulting company by some investors).\nThe company would send consultants to connect, integrate and organize data from across the customer organization, creating a central operating system for data.\nThe company has two flagship platform offerings: Gotham and Foundry. The Gotham product is sold mainly to government customers while Foundry is sold to commercial customers. Both platforms are full-stack, vertically integrated, and deployable in the public and private cloud, on-premise or on classified networks (air-gapped networks), edge devices, laptops, and specialized hardware. Both platforms have specific user-facing applications for different industries.\nGotham, released in 2008, is a platform with multiple applications, including Graph, Gaia, Dossier, Stencil, Video, Table, Ava, Forward, and Mobile. Use cases include planning military missions, tax return analysis to uncover tax evaders, and mapping out criminal networks.\nFoundry, released in 2016, is also a platform with multiple applications, including Monocle, Contour, Object Explorer, Fusion, Workshop, Vertex, Code Authoring, Quiver, Code Workbooks, and Reports. Use cases include increasing aircraft design, trending defect detection in manufacturing plants, and risk management within financial institutions.\nUnderlying Gotham and Foundry is Apollo, a continuous delivery and product infrastructure platform which allows the company to deploy air-gapped and on-premise networks at approximately the same speed as in the field. This is important given the siloed nature of data within large customers, which could grind data integration to a halt.\nPricing for Palantir products is opaque. The company says they price based off of the estimated value Palantir expects its software platforms to deliver to the customer, and how much the customer would have to pay for a consulting firm to build a custom solution.\nSince 2018, the company has been investing in account-based sales force to bring in new customers and to expand within existing customers. The company's field sales force is only around 3-4% of headcount, so this number has room to move up.\nMarket Opportunity\nPalantir's management sizes their total addressable market is at $119 billion, which includes $63 billion from government and $56 billion from commercial.\nThe government market consists of $26 billion domestic and $37 billion international. The commercial market estimate is based potential customers: 6,000 enterprises with over $500 million in revenue and PLTR's estimated annual contract value per customer.\nThe company's addressable market is heavily dependent on domestic politics and geopolitics. The company's mission is to serve the U.S. and its allies, which obviously does not include selling into the large defense budgets of China and Russia. In addition, U.S. allies' desire to gain more sovereignty and reduce reliance on the U.S. may impede adoption of Palantir's platforms.\nDomestically, the company benefited significantly from the 1994 passing of the Federal Streaming Acquisition Act (FASA). Section 2377 requires the federal government to consider and acquire proven and available commercial items in the market \"to the maximum extend possible\". This rule was largely ignored until 2016 when Palantir successfully sued the US Army to enforce the law (Palantir v. United States).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with investing in Palantir, which I don't feel is appreciated by the market given the company's high valuation and retail adoration.\nPalantir is more of a service company that does not empower customers to maintain their own data/AI systems, which can be a problem for certain commercial customers. Palantir sells a \"full stack\" technology offering, which is appealing to government agencies but not commercial customers, who are accustomed to buying best-of-breed software.\nPalantir must host customer data in order to integrate it, which can be a problem in certain industries that are subject to privacy regulations.\nPalantir solutions are expensive with an average contract value of $5-6 million. High prices may limit Palantir's addressable market. Reliance on large deals also makes revenue growth lumpy and more difficult to predict.\nPalantir has significant customer concentration risk. In the S-1, the company disclosed that its top 20 customers accounted for 76% of revenue.\nPalantir's addressable market depends heavily on domestic and geopolitics. U.S. allies are increasingly seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. in both business (i.e. cracking down on US's tech giants) and defense and may be hesitant to give Palantir access to their most sensitive data.\nPalantir is opaque and discloses significantly fewer financial metrics to investors than peers. This is maybe due to the nature of its business, which deals with highly sensitive information, however, this leaves investors in the dark.\nPalantir may also face significant ESG problems, which is increasingly important as ESG investing is rapidly gaining in popularity. Not only is Palantir a defense contractor, but it also provides surveillance analytics and has a history of being marred by controversies.\nFinancials & Valuation\nPalantir's valuation has fluctuated wildly, reflecting the manic bull market we are in currently.\nWhen the company went public through a direct listing on 9/30/2020, the company traded at around 78 times forward consensus EPS and 12 times enterprise value to forward sales. The stock caught the attention of retail investors and traded to a peak of over 330 times forward EPS and over 47 times sales by January 2021. Currently, the stock is trading at 121 times forward EPS and 22 times forward sales. I frankly have no idea what the valuation of this company ought to be, and neither does the market.\nFor this nose-bleed valuation, you get an expected 35% revenue growth in 2021, a growth rate that bulls expect to be sustained for multiple years, and only modest EPS growth through 2023 as the company reported $0.19 in non-GAAP EPS in 2020 but is expected to only generate $0.26 by 2023. Note that GAAP EPS is still deep in the red.\nWhile often very expensive stocks are expected to easily beat consensus estimates, I'm not so sure about Palantir. From 2016 through 2020, the company only grew revenues by a compounded annual growth of 24%.\nPalantir's high valuation is hard to justify given growth rate, lack of transparency, and the large number of risks associated with holding the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192085447,"gmtCreate":1621130555789,"gmtModify":1704353115928,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192085447","repostId":"1199905706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199905706","pubTimestamp":1620996553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199905706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 20:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"John Authers: Watching For \"Unrest\" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has \"Jumped The Shark\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199905706","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily \"transitory\" chang","content":"<p>Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily&nbsp;\"transitory\" changes cause wild volatility in all corners of the market, is documenting key themes as they emerge.</p>\n<p>One of the better analyses of the current market environment that we have read has come from Bloomberg Opinion writer John Authers. In apiece publishedon Friday, Authers lays out two key market themes heading into the end of Q2:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>The developing problem of inflation, especially as it relates to the cost of food,&nbsp;in emerging markets.</p></li>\n <li><p>How Elon Musk has, alongside of all of his devotees and disciples,&nbsp;placed himself firmly on the wrongside of what could be a serious coming market correction.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Rising Food Prices In Emerging Markets Could Eventually Lead To Civil Unrest</b></p>\n<p>First, Authers points out the obvious: commodity prices have blown through the roof.&nbsp;Producer price inflation came in at \"its highest in four decades, bar a brief peak in the summer of 2008,\" he notes of this week's data.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98060691179ff7adf11e5b2e9a2b4e9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\">He notes that while the 2008 price spike was driver by oil, there's no such pressure now. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 48.4% over the last 12 months, a stunning rise. Authers also points out that \"in developed markets at least, the contribution of core goods&nbsp;— excluding oil and agricultural products —&nbsp;to inflation isn’t very significant\".</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9725f82d084f2cbb6023f2dd901d260d\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"296\">He notes that commodity inflation isn't a major problem for the products and services that dominate the developed world...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36fe7942e94d8a3157acdf66cad8ae2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"384\">...but that they still play a crucial role in emerging markets. For example, places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are far more affected by commodity prices than places like Europe and North America.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b26f54f61cad2329e73e3ef717fdc7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"393\">And when these moves happen in emerging markets, they tend to be sustained. The last such move in commodity prices came during the Global Financial Crisis and lasted for \"a couple years\", Auther notes.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5387ffa7b5c1bb11134ba9a21c6eceb9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\">The rising prices can beget social unrest, he notes, citing that the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was protests in Tunisia over high food prices.</p>\n<p>\"Only in a rich nation could one exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than 'core.'&nbsp;Commodity price inflation can thus be very politically destabilizing, especially in countries without strong and flexible systems of governance,\" wrote&nbsp;Jason DeSenna Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.</p>\n<p>He continued: \"Sadly, riots for food in countries like India, Egypt, and Indonesia became commonplace. With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about the U.S. dollar, especially against commodities and hard assets. In this way, the dollar is, as Treasury Secretary John Connally once said, “our currency and your problem.”</p>\n<p>The risk is real, Authers notes. He makes the case that food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India, as much as 59% in Nigeria, while only accounting for 6.4% in the U.S. As a result, headline inflation in emerging markets will rise, he argues.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e6af99e955d78417e7ffd94b23ca6a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"347\">At that point, countries could consider interest rate hikes when their economies \"aren't ready\" for them, Authers says.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1617d35cca2c25dbac59aa284fef441a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"414\">These rising rates would be largely unexpected, as noted in the BNP chart above. Authers concludes his argument by noting that the combination of expensive food and rising rates are both \"unpopular\" trends in emerging markets - especially during a pandemic. This, obviously, would raise the risk for unrest.</p>\n<p><b>Elon Musk's Crypto Advocacy Has Taken A \"Dark Turn\"</b></p>\n<p>Shifting gears, Auther also approaches the subject of one of the most well known beneficiaries of the market over the last 18 months, Elon Musk. Musk has seen his net worth rise over $100 billion in the last 18 months as the result of Tesla's astronomical (and mysteriously timed) rise.</p>\n<p>Authers introduces how Musk advocating for cryptocurrencies became a mutually reinforcing theme for both Bitcoin and Tesla. \"The narrative involving Musk and cryptocurrencies has taken a much darker turn,\" Authers writes.</p>\n<p>Questioning whether or not Musk's statements about dogecoin and bitcoin have been jokes or not, Authers points out the very real effect Musk has had on the price of the coins, noting the dip on Sunday and the rise yesterday, after Musk tweeted positively about dogecoin.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc5c47e5094ddd3f91f786f46c06c99\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"418\">But he also notes that Musk's involvement in coins means he \"might be in danger of turning himself into an unserious figure, which isn’t a great narrative for the CEO of one of the world's largest companies.\"</p>\n<p>We'd argue Musk&nbsp;<i>already</i>isn't a serious figure - but that's what makes a market, we guess.</p>\n<p>Authers can't help but align Musk's comments about coins and the recent drop in Tesla shares, noting that its down 35% from its peak.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb2c325086d2174df717ae392bc60ad\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\">\"Charts like this don’t look good,\" he writes, before going on to conclude that Musk has \"jumped the shark\":</p>\n<blockquote>\n After years of triumphantly and cheekily proving the doubters and short sellers wrong, Musk is now on the wrong end of a nasty correction, and\n <b>vulnerable to a new narrative that he has “jumped the shark” —&nbsp;taken his eye off the ball of his business, and enjoyed a second career as an entertainer.</b>Hubris, or “pride comes before a fall” is one of the oldest human narratives. He doesn’t want to play to it. And as there have been plenty of signs of investment bubbles, particularly in crypto but also&nbsp;in the range of growth and “meme” stocks that support them, a burst bubble looms as another potentially self-fulfilling narrative.\n</blockquote>\n<p>While we think Authers' timing may be a little late in recognizing Musk for the carnival barker he is, we can't help but feel as though he finally has his finger on the pulse.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>John Authers: Watching For \"Unrest\" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has \"Jumped The Shark\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJohn Authers: Watching For \"Unrest\" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has \"Jumped The Shark\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 20:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john-authers-op-ed-talks-emerging-market-unrest-over-food-prices-and-elon-musk-jumping?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily \"transitory\" changes cause wild volatility in all corners of the market, is documenting key themes as they emerge.\nOne...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john-authers-op-ed-talks-emerging-market-unrest-over-food-prices-and-elon-musk-jumping?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john-authers-op-ed-talks-emerging-market-unrest-over-food-prices-and-elon-musk-jumping?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199905706","content_text":"Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily \"transitory\" changes cause wild volatility in all corners of the market, is documenting key themes as they emerge.\nOne of the better analyses of the current market environment that we have read has come from Bloomberg Opinion writer John Authers. In apiece publishedon Friday, Authers lays out two key market themes heading into the end of Q2:\n\nThe developing problem of inflation, especially as it relates to the cost of food, in emerging markets.\nHow Elon Musk has, alongside of all of his devotees and disciples, placed himself firmly on the wrongside of what could be a serious coming market correction.\n\nRising Food Prices In Emerging Markets Could Eventually Lead To Civil Unrest\nFirst, Authers points out the obvious: commodity prices have blown through the roof. Producer price inflation came in at \"its highest in four decades, bar a brief peak in the summer of 2008,\" he notes of this week's data.\nHe notes that while the 2008 price spike was driver by oil, there's no such pressure now. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 48.4% over the last 12 months, a stunning rise. Authers also points out that \"in developed markets at least, the contribution of core goods — excluding oil and agricultural products — to inflation isn’t very significant\".\nHe notes that commodity inflation isn't a major problem for the products and services that dominate the developed world...\n...but that they still play a crucial role in emerging markets. For example, places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are far more affected by commodity prices than places like Europe and North America.\nAnd when these moves happen in emerging markets, they tend to be sustained. The last such move in commodity prices came during the Global Financial Crisis and lasted for \"a couple years\", Auther notes.\nThe rising prices can beget social unrest, he notes, citing that the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was protests in Tunisia over high food prices.\n\"Only in a rich nation could one exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than 'core.' Commodity price inflation can thus be very politically destabilizing, especially in countries without strong and flexible systems of governance,\" wrote Jason DeSenna Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.\nHe continued: \"Sadly, riots for food in countries like India, Egypt, and Indonesia became commonplace. With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about the U.S. dollar, especially against commodities and hard assets. In this way, the dollar is, as Treasury Secretary John Connally once said, “our currency and your problem.”\nThe risk is real, Authers notes. He makes the case that food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India, as much as 59% in Nigeria, while only accounting for 6.4% in the U.S. As a result, headline inflation in emerging markets will rise, he argues.\nAt that point, countries could consider interest rate hikes when their economies \"aren't ready\" for them, Authers says.\nThese rising rates would be largely unexpected, as noted in the BNP chart above. Authers concludes his argument by noting that the combination of expensive food and rising rates are both \"unpopular\" trends in emerging markets - especially during a pandemic. This, obviously, would raise the risk for unrest.\nElon Musk's Crypto Advocacy Has Taken A \"Dark Turn\"\nShifting gears, Auther also approaches the subject of one of the most well known beneficiaries of the market over the last 18 months, Elon Musk. Musk has seen his net worth rise over $100 billion in the last 18 months as the result of Tesla's astronomical (and mysteriously timed) rise.\nAuthers introduces how Musk advocating for cryptocurrencies became a mutually reinforcing theme for both Bitcoin and Tesla. \"The narrative involving Musk and cryptocurrencies has taken a much darker turn,\" Authers writes.\nQuestioning whether or not Musk's statements about dogecoin and bitcoin have been jokes or not, Authers points out the very real effect Musk has had on the price of the coins, noting the dip on Sunday and the rise yesterday, after Musk tweeted positively about dogecoin.\nBut he also notes that Musk's involvement in coins means he \"might be in danger of turning himself into an unserious figure, which isn’t a great narrative for the CEO of one of the world's largest companies.\"\nWe'd argue Musk alreadyisn't a serious figure - but that's what makes a market, we guess.\nAuthers can't help but align Musk's comments about coins and the recent drop in Tesla shares, noting that its down 35% from its peak.\n\"Charts like this don’t look good,\" he writes, before going on to conclude that Musk has \"jumped the shark\":\n\n After years of triumphantly and cheekily proving the doubters and short sellers wrong, Musk is now on the wrong end of a nasty correction, and\n vulnerable to a new narrative that he has “jumped the shark” — taken his eye off the ball of his business, and enjoyed a second career as an entertainer.Hubris, or “pride comes before a fall” is one of the oldest human narratives. He doesn’t want to play to it. And as there have been plenty of signs of investment bubbles, particularly in crypto but also in the range of growth and “meme” stocks that support them, a burst bubble looms as another potentially self-fulfilling narrative.\n\nWhile we think Authers' timing may be a little late in recognizing Musk for the carnival barker he is, we can't help but feel as though he finally has his finger on the pulse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196660198,"gmtCreate":1621048968914,"gmtModify":1704352442934,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196660198","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163454382","pubTimestamp":1621004581,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163454382?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163454382","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million. First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinat","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>A day after<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>(NYSE:AMC)</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Yesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million</p>\n<p>First, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.</p>\n<p>This should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Lower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.</p>\n<p>Vaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Entertainment Stock Jumped Again Friday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/14/why-amc-entertainment-stock-jumped-again-friday/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163454382","content_text":"AMC investors have reason for more optimism on the heels of another capital raise.\n\nWhat happened\nA day afterAMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC)\nSo what\nYesterday's jump came after the company announcedit raised $428 million\nFirst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new statement on current health and safety protocols saying that fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, including indoors.\nThis should allow theaters to open back up at full capacity and be a desirable destination for vaccinated movie patrons. Also yesterday,Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)announced its quarterly earnings report, and CEO Bob Chapek noted \"increased production at our studios.\" While that is a positive for theater operators, Disney also reported disappointing subscriber growth in itsstreaming services.\nNow what\nLower streaming subscriptions could be a positive sign for the theater business. As vaccinations continue to roll out, and with the CDC now officially giving its approval to gather indoors with crowds and without masks, theater attendance may resume quickly.\nVaccinations are going to drive people back to activities outside the home. Movie theaters are likely to be a favorite destination after more than a year of mostly watching at home. On the heels of another capital raise, AMC investors may be thinking this company finally has a promising path ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198484385,"gmtCreate":1620980933747,"gmtModify":1704351481374,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198484385","repostId":"1198769661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198769661","pubTimestamp":1620980678,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198769661?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-14 16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Toshiba business unit says it has been attacked by hacking group DarkSide, report says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198769661","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nToshiba Tec France said in a statement seen by Reuters that it was hacked on the evening","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nToshiba Tec France said in a statement seen by Reuters that it was hacked on the evening of May 4. by Darkside, the same group the U.S. FBI blamed for the Colonial Pipeline attack.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/toshiba-business-unit-says-it-has-been-hacked-by-darkside-reuters.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Toshiba business unit says it has been attacked by hacking group DarkSide, report says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Toshiba business unit says it has been attacked by hacking group DarkSide, report says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 16:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/toshiba-business-unit-says-it-has-been-hacked-by-darkside-reuters.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nToshiba Tec France said in a statement seen by Reuters that it was hacked on the evening of May 4. by Darkside, the same group the U.S. FBI blamed for the Colonial Pipeline attack.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/toshiba-business-unit-says-it-has-been-hacked-by-darkside-reuters.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TOSYY":"东芝"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/toshiba-business-unit-says-it-has-been-hacked-by-darkside-reuters.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1198769661","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nToshiba Tec France said in a statement seen by Reuters that it was hacked on the evening of May 4. by Darkside, the same group the U.S. FBI blamed for the Colonial Pipeline attack.\nThe Toshiba unit sells self-checkout technology and point-of -sale systems to retailers.\n\nA division of Toshiba said on Friday that its European business has been hit by a cyberattack, according toa Reuters report.\nToshiba TecFrance said in a statement seen by Reuters that it was hacked on the evening of May 4. by Darkside,the same group the U.S. FBI blamed for the Colonial Pipeline attack.\nThe Toshiba unit, which sells self-checkout technology and point-of -sale systems to retailers, did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.\nToshiba Tec reportedly said that a \"minimal\" amount of work data was stolen in a ransomware attack. No leaks of the data have been detected so far and protective measures were put in place after the cyber-attack, the company said.\nRansomware is a type of malicious software that’s designed to block access to a computer system the victims pay the hackers a sum of money. It is not known if Toshiba Tec France has paid a ransom to the hackers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191012691,"gmtCreate":1620827492213,"gmtModify":1704348997811,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mission","listText":"mission","text":"mission","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191012691","repostId":"1106026658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106026658","pubTimestamp":1620820023,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106026658?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 19:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These ‘panic events’ could soon spell relief for stock markets, says top strategist Thomas Lee","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106026658","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe clock is ticking down to a big reading on U.S. i","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The clock is ticking down to a big reading on U.S. inflation, a red-hot topic for markets. Ahead of that, stock futures are pointing south, but by a less hefty amount than seen as of late.</p>\n<p>Perhaps helping out were the dip buyers who picked off beaten-down technology stocks on Tuesday, helping the Nasdaq erase a nearly 2% drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA had its biggest one-day drop since the February rout.</p>\n<p>But could the worst be over?</p>\n<p>Providing our call of the day, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ founder Thomas Lee zeroes in on a couple of “panic events” that he believes could signal market capitulation. That occurs when investors dump their holdings, often driven by a correction, leading to a potential bottom for stocks.</p>\n<p>In a note to clients that published on Wednesday, Lee explained those events, starting with a 40% surge over two days for the Cboe Volatility Index, or the VIX VIX. Such action, he noted, has only been seen 20 times since 1990.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14820ddbd819195b21350c67454b7a2e\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\"></p>\n<p>\"Based on similar instances of VIX spikes since 1990, “unless we are entering a recession, the VIX spike is simply a panic/reset. And this washes out investor sentiment,” said Lee.</p>\n<p>His data show that since 1990, the S&amp;P 500 has experienced four bear-market instances and 16 bull-market instances when the VIX has seen a similar two-day surge. The median forward return in those bullish follow-ups has been 1.6%, 6% and 8.7% on a one, three and six-month basis.</p>\n<p>The second “panic event” also happened on Tuesday, when the NYSE Tick index, which compares the number of stocks moving up versus down, collapsed to its worst reading since 1999, dropping 2,069 points, said Lee.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8afdff00cbdd8181cc225ab731064469\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"811\"></p>\n<p>He said all nine other worst TICK readings took place during bull-market periods, with the exception of 2001, though he doesn’t think markets are repeating that year, given stocks were already in a downtrend two years before that.</p>\n<p>Here, he highlights (circled in blue) what happens after those low TICK readings:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3e98a1a5c98e360e52e050f314c74ec\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"856\"></p>\n<p>While many investors might view [Tuesday’s] plunge and the surge in the VIX as a negative sign, it might surprise you but these are actually bullish signals. Foremost, keep in mind that bull markets ‘ride an escalator, and fall down an elevator,’ meaning, in a bull market, stocks rise steadily and then plunge suddenly. Thus, a VIX surge and massive negative NYSE tick reading is positive,” said Lee.</p>\n<p>If a capitulation is en route, he said, investors should rotate out of tech and into so-called “epicenter recommended areas,” referring to economically sensitive companies.</p>\n<p>Here are 10 from his list of dozens such stocks: Advance Auto Parts AAP, motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson HOG, Wyndham Hotels WH, Prosperity Bancshares PB, Bank of New York Mellon BK, amusement-park company Six Flags SIX, energy companies Exxon Mobil XOM and GE GE, airline JetBlue JBLU and department store Kohl’s KSS.</p>\n<p><b>Inflation day and ether surges</b></p>\n<p>Economists expect consumer prices, due ahead of the open, to climb in April for the 11th straight month, and the annual rate could reach above 3.5% for the first time since 2011. Ahead of those data, U.S. stock futures ES00 YM00 NQ00 are pointing south. Selling in Asia sent Taiwan’s TAIEX TW:Y9999 down more than 8% at one point, while European stocks XX:SXXP have rebounded after the worst session of the year.</p>\n<p>Days after a cyberattack, the Colonial Pipeline fuel outage continues to cause misery for U.S. drivers. The U.S. Energy Department says it is trying to help:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6569ec0c0e4ab354b6b2a990fbd9a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\"></p>\n<p>Digital currency ether ETHUSD has resumed its run higher after a brief pullback, with most digital currencies moving up. As some on Twitter TWTR are pointing out, the market cap of the cryptocurrency that runs on the ethereum blockchain is now bigger than that of JPMorgan JPM. And while meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin DOGEUSD is down, one Goldman Sachs GS worker reportedly made enough to quit his job.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e01a37a645a13794eeaeeb26c11b0224\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1456\"></p>\n<p>Despite poor results in western trials, China’s Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine has eliminated the coronavirus that causes the disease among more than 25,000 Indonesian health workers.</p>\n<p>There has been no let up in the attacks on the Gaza Strip, which is turning into the worst outbreak of violence since 2014.</p>\n<p>Rep. Liz Cheney warned former President Donald Trump and his Republican supporters are trying to “undermine our democracy,” ahead of a vote that may strip her of a leadership post.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These ‘panic events’ could soon spell relief for stock markets, says top strategist Thomas Lee</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese ‘panic events’ could soon spell relief for stock markets, says top strategist Thomas Lee\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-12 19:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-panic-events-could-soon-spell-relief-for-stock-markets-says-top-strategist-thomas-lee-11620818511><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe clock is ticking down to a big reading on U.S. inflation, a red-hot topic for markets. Ahead of that, stock futures are pointing south, but by a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-panic-events-could-soon-spell-relief-for-stock-markets-says-top-strategist-thomas-lee-11620818511\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-panic-events-could-soon-spell-relief-for-stock-markets-says-top-strategist-thomas-lee-11620818511","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106026658","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe clock is ticking down to a big reading on U.S. inflation, a red-hot topic for markets. Ahead of that, stock futures are pointing south, but by a less hefty amount than seen as of late.\nPerhaps helping out were the dip buyers who picked off beaten-down technology stocks on Tuesday, helping the Nasdaq erase a nearly 2% drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA had its biggest one-day drop since the February rout.\nBut could the worst be over?\nProviding our call of the day, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ founder Thomas Lee zeroes in on a couple of “panic events” that he believes could signal market capitulation. That occurs when investors dump their holdings, often driven by a correction, leading to a potential bottom for stocks.\nIn a note to clients that published on Wednesday, Lee explained those events, starting with a 40% surge over two days for the Cboe Volatility Index, or the VIX VIX. Such action, he noted, has only been seen 20 times since 1990.\n\n\"Based on similar instances of VIX spikes since 1990, “unless we are entering a recession, the VIX spike is simply a panic/reset. And this washes out investor sentiment,” said Lee.\nHis data show that since 1990, the S&P 500 has experienced four bear-market instances and 16 bull-market instances when the VIX has seen a similar two-day surge. The median forward return in those bullish follow-ups has been 1.6%, 6% and 8.7% on a one, three and six-month basis.\nThe second “panic event” also happened on Tuesday, when the NYSE Tick index, which compares the number of stocks moving up versus down, collapsed to its worst reading since 1999, dropping 2,069 points, said Lee.\n\nHe said all nine other worst TICK readings took place during bull-market periods, with the exception of 2001, though he doesn’t think markets are repeating that year, given stocks were already in a downtrend two years before that.\nHere, he highlights (circled in blue) what happens after those low TICK readings:\n\nWhile many investors might view [Tuesday’s] plunge and the surge in the VIX as a negative sign, it might surprise you but these are actually bullish signals. Foremost, keep in mind that bull markets ‘ride an escalator, and fall down an elevator,’ meaning, in a bull market, stocks rise steadily and then plunge suddenly. Thus, a VIX surge and massive negative NYSE tick reading is positive,” said Lee.\nIf a capitulation is en route, he said, investors should rotate out of tech and into so-called “epicenter recommended areas,” referring to economically sensitive companies.\nHere are 10 from his list of dozens such stocks: Advance Auto Parts AAP, motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson HOG, Wyndham Hotels WH, Prosperity Bancshares PB, Bank of New York Mellon BK, amusement-park company Six Flags SIX, energy companies Exxon Mobil XOM and GE GE, airline JetBlue JBLU and department store Kohl’s KSS.\nInflation day and ether surges\nEconomists expect consumer prices, due ahead of the open, to climb in April for the 11th straight month, and the annual rate could reach above 3.5% for the first time since 2011. Ahead of those data, U.S. stock futures ES00 YM00 NQ00 are pointing south. Selling in Asia sent Taiwan’s TAIEX TW:Y9999 down more than 8% at one point, while European stocks XX:SXXP have rebounded after the worst session of the year.\nDays after a cyberattack, the Colonial Pipeline fuel outage continues to cause misery for U.S. drivers. The U.S. Energy Department says it is trying to help:\n\nDigital currency ether ETHUSD has resumed its run higher after a brief pullback, with most digital currencies moving up. As some on Twitter TWTR are pointing out, the market cap of the cryptocurrency that runs on the ethereum blockchain is now bigger than that of JPMorgan JPM. And while meme cryptocurrency Dogecoin DOGEUSD is down, one Goldman Sachs GS worker reportedly made enough to quit his job.\n\nDespite poor results in western trials, China’s Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine has eliminated the coronavirus that causes the disease among more than 25,000 Indonesian health workers.\nThere has been no let up in the attacks on the Gaza Strip, which is turning into the worst outbreak of violence since 2014.\nRep. Liz Cheney warned former President Donald Trump and his Republican supporters are trying to “undermine our democracy,” ahead of a vote that may strip her of a leadership post.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104985727,"gmtCreate":1620350065769,"gmtModify":1704342342875,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104985727","repostId":"1160617696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160617696","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620346875,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160617696?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-07 08:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Dropbox Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160617696","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Dropbox (DBX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estim","content":"<p>Dropbox (DBX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.</p><p>This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 16.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this online file-sharing company would post earnings of $0.23 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.28, delivering a surprise of 21.74%.</p><p>Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ff6254e338162714e082084eea6316\" tg-width=\"1215\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Dropbox, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Services industry, posted revenues of $511.6 million for the quarter ended March 2021, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.31%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $455 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.</p><p>The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.</p><p>Dropbox shares have added about 12% since the beginning of the year versus the S&amp;P 500's gain of 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885fe7a072fef98025bd635c35e92b22\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What's Next for Dropbox?</b></p><p>While Dropbox has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?</p><p>There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.</p><p>Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.</p><p>Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Dropbox was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p>It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.31 on $518.51 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.27 on $2.1 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.</p><p>Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Services is currently in the bottom 21% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dropbox Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDropbox Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 08:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dropbox (DBX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.</p><p>This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 16.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this online file-sharing company would post earnings of $0.23 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.28, delivering a surprise of 21.74%.</p><p>Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ff6254e338162714e082084eea6316\" tg-width=\"1215\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Dropbox, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Services industry, posted revenues of $511.6 million for the quarter ended March 2021, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.31%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $455 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.</p><p>The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.</p><p>Dropbox shares have added about 12% since the beginning of the year versus the S&amp;P 500's gain of 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/885fe7a072fef98025bd635c35e92b22\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What's Next for Dropbox?</b></p><p>While Dropbox has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?</p><p>There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.</p><p>Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.</p><p>Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Dropbox was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.</p><p>It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.31 on $518.51 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.27 on $2.1 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.</p><p>Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Services is currently in the bottom 21% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DBX":"Dropbox Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160617696","content_text":"Dropbox (DBX) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.17 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 16.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this online file-sharing company would post earnings of $0.23 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.28, delivering a surprise of 21.74%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.Dropbox, which belongs to the Zacks Internet - Services industry, posted revenues of $511.6 million for the quarter ended March 2021, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.31%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $455 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.Dropbox shares have added about 12% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 11%.What's Next for Dropbox?While Dropbox has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Dropbox was mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.31 on $518.51 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $1.27 on $2.1 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Internet - Services is currently in the bottom 21% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108454233,"gmtCreate":1620050868022,"gmtModify":1704337920721,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108454233","repostId":"108918265","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348184990,"gmtCreate":1617894068710,"gmtModify":1704704559985,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348184990","repostId":"348383756","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336549213,"gmtCreate":1610118970532,"gmtModify":1704982343547,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336549213","repostId":"336531247","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":336531247,"gmtCreate":1610116762789,"gmtModify":1704982267699,"author":{"id":"3563839073288528","authorId":"3563839073288528","authorIdStr":"3563839073288528","name":"格林林","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693e0b72e0fad1af350f4189e7e7d9f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563839073288528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>第一停","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>第一停","text":"$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$第一停","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336531247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331797937,"gmtCreate":1609761883629,"gmtModify":1704979855136,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331797937","repostId":"331709241","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331709241,"gmtCreate":1609759239783,"gmtModify":1704979831632,"author":{"id":"3545856388559661","authorId":"3545856388559661","authorIdStr":"3545856388559661","name":"李东东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0aa571d3f38d74e71ed02ae60e015c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545856388559661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>今晚漲百分之三百","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>今晚漲百分之三百","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$今晚漲百分之三百","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331709241","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":104985727,"gmtCreate":1620350065769,"gmtModify":1704342342875,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104985727","repostId":"1160617696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192085447,"gmtCreate":1621130555789,"gmtModify":1704353115928,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192085447","repostId":"1199905706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191012691,"gmtCreate":1620827492213,"gmtModify":1704348997811,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mission","listText":"mission","text":"mission","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191012691","repostId":"1106026658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119279248,"gmtCreate":1622552781584,"gmtModify":1704186150453,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great news","listText":"Great news","text":"Great news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119279248","repostId":"1138216687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138216687","pubTimestamp":1622552095,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138216687?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-01 20:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138216687","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.The company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.Alibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.So far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United Sta","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.</li>\n <li>The company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.</li>\n <li>In my opinion, the stock is severely undervalued.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15ac5f97c66688f6d16ce98819ebce4a\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>So far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United States and stocks listed on an US-based stock exchange. And while I am covering also companies from Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden or Denmark, I have avoided one country almost completely although it has many interesting investment opportunities: Mainland China.The only company I covered so far&nbsp;is Tencent Holdings Limited (OTCPK:TCEHY).</p>\n<p>And although China has hundreds or thousands of successful companies, most of them are almost unknown in the Western Hemisphere (especially when moving outside of the investing world). And while most investors are familiar with Tencent, there is at least one other company almost every investor has heard of: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). In the following article, I will analyze Alibaba in my usual way. I will try to determine if Alibaba is a solid business with a wide economic moat and try to answer the question if Alibaba is a solid investment right now.</p>\n<p><b>Business Description</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 individuals. Nevertheless, one of these 18 stands out – the former English teacher from Hangzhou, Jack Ma. Over the years, Alibaba evolved in a multinational technology company and with a market capitalization of $570 billion, Alibaba is on the 10thspot on the list of most valuable companies in the world (by market cap). And behind Tencent, which is on the 7thspot on that list, Alibaba is the second most valuable company in China.</p>\n<p>While Alibaba is mostly focused on e-commerce and retail operations, the Alibaba Group is actually a holding company with many different sales services. This includes C2C services, B2C services and B2B services. Aside from retail, the Alibaba Group also offers electronic payment services, shipping search engines and could computing services. The group owns and operates a diverse portfolio of companies around the world in numerous business sectors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b315044f4644568e7df5d95cc6720995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\"><span>(Source:Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba is reporting in four different segments:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Core Commerce Revenue</b>: This segment is comprised of platforms operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China as well as logistics services and local consumer services. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 621.1 billion in revenue and RMB 159 billion in income from operations.</li>\n <li><b>Cloud Computing Revenue</b>: This segment is comprised of Alibaba Cloud, which offers different cloud services to customers worldwide like database, storage, big data analytics, a machine learning platform and large-scale computing security. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 60.1 billion, but the segment was not profitable so far (a loss of RMB 9 billion).</li>\n <li><b>Digital Media and Entertainment Revenue</b>: This segment uses the deep data insights to serve the broader interests of consumers through key distribution platforms Youku and Alibaba Pictures as well as other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, literature and music. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 31.2 billion, but was also not profitable.</li>\n <li><b>Innovation Initiatives and Others Revenue</b>: This segment includes businesses like Amap, DingTalk, Tmall Genie and others. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 4.8 billion in revenue, but also an operating loss.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0529c547e87a4c0b023289ecb1822cbc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"478\"><span>(Source: Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When looking at the last annual results (fiscal 2021), Alibaba generated RMB 717.3 billion in revenue. Compared to fiscal 2020 (RMB 509.7 billion) this is reflecting an increase of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2021 was RMB 196.8 billion – an increase of 25% compared to fiscal 2020 (adjusted EBITA of RMB 157.7 billion). Diluted earnings per share actually decreased from RMB 6.99 in fiscal 2020 to RMB 6.84 in fiscal 2021 – reflecting a decrease of 2.1%. But we should not pay too much attention to the earnings per share. Instead, it makes much more sense to look at the free cash flow Alibaba is generating. In fiscal 2021, Alibaba generated RMB 172.7 billion in free cash flow compared to RMB 130.9 billion in free cash flow one year earlier.</p>\n<p><b>Strong Business Among Strong Competitors</b></p>\n<p>What is striking when looking at Alibaba – and what has been discussed several times – is the low multiple for which Alibaba is currently trading. When using the trailing twelve-month GAAP numbers, Alibaba is trading for 25 times earnings, when using the non-GAAP forward numbers, it is trading for a P/E ratio of 20.</p>\n<p>We can compare Alibaba to its peers – companies like Amazon (AMZN), Tencent, Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) or Alphabet (GOOG). And Alibaba actually belongs in that list as it is not only operating in similar business segments, but it is also growing with similarly high rates. And Alibaba is not only growing with a similar pace; it is actually outperforming most of its peers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b576dcef2e37a02a6eba5677fded8ef8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>(Source:Alibaba 2020 Investor Presentations)</span></p>\n<p>While Alibaba is growing with a similar pace like these companies, it is trading for a completely different multiple. Right now, Alibaba is trading for a price-cash-flow ratio of 17, while competitors like Tencent, Facebook or Microsoft are trading for a P/FCF ratio between 35 and 40. It is striking, that the market is assigning these competitors a multiple twice as high and Amazon is actually trading for a multiple more than 4 times higher (price-free-cash-flow ratio of 76).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d2f58771a8062c7bb980622b93073e5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Right now, readers might point out, that the comparison to Amazon is misleading as Amazon is still spending a lot of money to achieve future growth and therefore has a lower profit than other companies. And it certainly is true, that Amazon is still focusing on top line growth – sometimes at the expense of bottom-line growth – but so does Alibaba.</p>\n<p>While Amazon spent 10.4% of its revenue as capital expenditures in the last fiscal year, Alibaba spent almost the same amount – 8.9% of revenue. And when looking at the expenses for research and development, we once again see similar numbers. In the last five years, Amazon spent 12.16% of revenue on R&amp;D on average while Alibaba spent 10.38% of its revenue on R&amp;D.</p>\n<p>But while these numbers are quite similar for both companies – Amazon is spending a bit more on R&amp;D than Alibaba – the free cash flow these two companies can generate is completely different. While Amazon only generated 6.7% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year, Alibaba generated 26.5% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year – almost four times higher.</p>\n<p>And Alibaba is not only extremely profitable – it was growing with an extremely high pace in the past. During the past ten years, Alibaba could not only grow revenue every single year, it also grew revenue with a CAGR of 62.6%. Earnings per share fluctuated a little bit during these ten years but grew with an even higher pace – a CAGR of 76.29% during the last decade. And finally, free cash flow increased with a CAGR of 59.62% during the last decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ccaf170c0d86cd8022a68bc3657c30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>(Source: Author’s work based on numbers from Morningstar)</span></p>\n<p>When looking at Alibaba’s growth rates in the last few years compared to its competitors, Alibaba is also outperforming. When looking at the revenue CAGR of the last 5 years, we get the following numbers:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon: 29.26%</li>\n <li>Facebook: 36.82%</li>\n <li>Tencent: 36.20%</li>\n <li>Alphabet: 19.47%</li>\n <li>Microsoft: 8.85%</li>\n <li>Alibaba: 46.24%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>We can spin it how we want: Alibaba is an extremely profitable company growing with extremely high rates but is trading at an extremely low multiple compared to its competitors. It is growing with a higher pace than Microsoft and Facebook, but trading for half the multiple. It is much more profitable than Amazon and also growing at a higher pace, but trading for a quarter of the valuation multiple. At this point, profitability and growth of Alibaba on the one side and the valuation multiple on the other side does not add up. And we have to ask the question, why Alibaba is trading for such a low multiple although it is outperforming many of its peers that trade for much higher multiples.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>When looking at the past performance of Alibaba, we can see, that steep selloffs are quite common as a similar sell-off happened already three times since the IPO in 2014 with the steepest sell-off being more than 50% off the previous high.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da83a08f0dcfc73534c206e43cb09d3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>While this might help us a bit, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty and investors usually don’t like uncertainty. Basically, this uncertainty can be summed up in one short sentence: The tense relationship between Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government is worrying for investors. And this tense relationship is exemplified by several events. It started last year, when the IPO of the company’s fintech affiliate Ant Financial was cancelled. </p>\n<p>This was followed by theinitiation of an antitrust investigation, in which it is investigated if Alibaba had engaged in monopolistic practices (like preventing vendors from selling on other platforms). Additionally, new supervision for Ant Group was also discussed. And finally, at the end of 2020, Jack Ma went missing and it took about three months before the public would hear from him again – another worrying aspect for investors.</p>\n<p>As long as we are talking about risks, there are other aspect I like to mention. I compared Alibaba to Amazon above – and I still think that comparison is appropriate. But we also have to acknowledge, that Alibaba growth potential is limited as the company is mostly focused on China and might have more difficulties to expand globally – compared to Amazon. But considering the growing middle class in China and the high pace with which the economy is still growing we should not worry too much about Alibaba’s growth potential.</p>\n<p>There is a final risk Imentioned in my last article about Tencentand that risk is also applying to Alibaba:</p>\n<blockquote>\n And a final risk is the fact that Tencent is a Chinese company. It is especially difficult to understand different trends before they are happening and predict the future, but while I am familiar with the German culture and the people (habits, preferences, etc.) and can deal with similar countries like France, the United Kingdom, Sweden or the United States, it is rather difficult for me to understand and analyze the consumer behavior and preferences of the Chinese population. This makes it difficult to assess the potential and development of the products and services Tencent offers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>But despite all these issues, there is a comparison I like very much. Very recently,one of my fellow contributorscompared Alibaba’s situation right now to Facebook a few years ago, when it was facing the Cambridge Analytics scandal and also trading for extremely low multiples due to the uncertainties. And it is also interesting, that Wall Street analysts as well as Seeking Alpha contributors are extremely bullish about Alibaba right now.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d2ece5c1460e539c9fd4fb4ba63bf7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p>\n<p>When facing challenges, it is especially reassuring if we are dealing with a solid balance sheet enabling the company to withstand challenges and stormy market conditions. And similar to many companies mentioned above – like Facebook or Alphabet – Alibaba also has a great balance sheet. We don’t have to worry about high debt levels although Alibaba has current bank borrowings of RMB 3.6 billion and non-current bank borrowings of RMB 38.3 billion on its balance sheet. But compared to a total equity of RMB 1,075 billion, we get a D/E ratio of 0.04, which is negligible. Aside from the debt, the biggest problem is probably the company’s goodwill. On March 31, 2021, Alibaba had RMB 292.8 billion in goodwill. This means, that 17.3% of total assets (RMB 1,690 billion) is goodwill.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/532919e61e3feb83d46cbce44e3f3c42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\"><span>(Source:Alibaba Q4/21 Earnings Release)</span></p>\n<p>But aside from goodwill, Alibaba also has RMB 321.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 152.4 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. Aside from these rather liquid assets, Alibaba also has RMB 237.2 billion in equity securities and other investments, that are also worth mentioning. I included a screenshot of the latest balance sheet, which is also including the numbers in US$. Especially $72 billion in very liquid assets give Alibaba a lot of “financial power” and the ability to negative troubles.</p>\n<p><b>Intrinsic Value Calculation</b></p>\n<p>I already mentioned above that Alibaba is trading at rather low multiples – at least when compared to its peers and especially for a company growing with a high pace. And compared to the company’s history, the stock is right now trading almost for its lowest P/FCF ratio since the IPO. A few times – in 2016, 2018 and 2020 – the stock was trading at a similar low P/FCF ratio. From that point of view, Alibaba has to be considered extremely cheap.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1da4ac18557b21c43feb2a338de9a3b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha Charting)</span></p>\n<p>When you are familiar with my past articles, you know that I don’t just use valuation multiples but also a discount cash flow analysis, which is considered to be much more precise (although we have to make a lot more assumptions). When taking the free cash flow of fiscal 2021 (RMB 172.7 billion) as basis, Alibaba has to grow about 5.5% annually from now till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued (the intrinsic value is RMB 1,367; discount rate 10%).</p>\n<p>Instead, we can also calculate with more realistic growth rates. If we assume, that Alibaba won’t go under, we have to assume at least 20% growth for the next year. Let’s be rather pessimistic and assume, that growth will slowly decline over the next decade and in 10 years from now, the growth rate will only be 6% till perpetuity. When using these numbers, we get an intrinsic value of&nbsp;<b>RMB 2,596</b>. And we have to assume, that these growth assumptions are rather cautious for a company like Alibaba.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>So far, we talked about risks, about past growth rates, compared Alibaba to its peers and provided an intrinsic value calculation. I also wanted to write about the growth potential as well as the wide economic moat, that Alibaba has without any doubt – similar toAmazon,FacebookorTencent. But the article would probably be too long then. Instead, I included links to three articles in which I described the economic moat of these businesses.</p>\n<p>When summing up, it is quite simple. When we assume, that Alibaba is in serious trouble and might be brought down in some way or is facing troubles, that will seriously mess with the company’s ability to grow, we should not invest in Alibaba. These risks are present, and we actually don’t know what could happen in the coming quarters (or years). However, I consider it extremely unlikely, that China will destroy its second most-valuable company. If we assume on the other side, that this is just a small hick-up and troubles Alibaba can work through in the coming quarters and Alibaba will continue to perform in a similar way as in the past (even with growth rates slowing down), Alibaba is probably one of the most undervalued stocks out there and an extreme bargain.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: One Of The Really Cheap Bargains In This Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.\nThe company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432358-alibaba-one-of-the-really-cheap-bargains-in-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1138216687","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is one of the largest corporations in the world and focusing on retail, cloud and payment services.\nThe company is clearly facing risks due to the tension between Jack Ma and the Chinese government, but I consider these risks to be only temporary.\nAlibaba is growing with a high pace, has a very stable balance sheet and outperforming many of its peers.\nIn my opinion, the stock is severely undervalued.\n\nPhoto by maybefalse/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSo far, I have published over 300 articles on this site and the focus has been clearly on companies having the headquarters in the United States and stocks listed on an US-based stock exchange. And while I am covering also companies from Germany, France, Great Britain, Sweden or Denmark, I have avoided one country almost completely although it has many interesting investment opportunities: Mainland China.The only company I covered so far is Tencent Holdings Limited (OTCPK:TCEHY).\nAnd although China has hundreds or thousands of successful companies, most of them are almost unknown in the Western Hemisphere (especially when moving outside of the investing world). And while most investors are familiar with Tencent, there is at least one other company almost every investor has heard of: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA). In the following article, I will analyze Alibaba in my usual way. I will try to determine if Alibaba is a solid business with a wide economic moat and try to answer the question if Alibaba is a solid investment right now.\nBusiness Description\nAlibaba Group was founded in 1999 by 18 individuals. Nevertheless, one of these 18 stands out – the former English teacher from Hangzhou, Jack Ma. Over the years, Alibaba evolved in a multinational technology company and with a market capitalization of $570 billion, Alibaba is on the 10thspot on the list of most valuable companies in the world (by market cap). And behind Tencent, which is on the 7thspot on that list, Alibaba is the second most valuable company in China.\nWhile Alibaba is mostly focused on e-commerce and retail operations, the Alibaba Group is actually a holding company with many different sales services. This includes C2C services, B2C services and B2B services. Aside from retail, the Alibaba Group also offers electronic payment services, shipping search engines and could computing services. The group owns and operates a diverse portfolio of companies around the world in numerous business sectors.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nAlibaba is reporting in four different segments:\n\nCore Commerce Revenue: This segment is comprised of platforms operating in retail and wholesale commerce in China as well as logistics services and local consumer services. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 621.1 billion in revenue and RMB 159 billion in income from operations.\nCloud Computing Revenue: This segment is comprised of Alibaba Cloud, which offers different cloud services to customers worldwide like database, storage, big data analytics, a machine learning platform and large-scale computing security. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 60.1 billion, but the segment was not profitable so far (a loss of RMB 9 billion).\nDigital Media and Entertainment Revenue: This segment uses the deep data insights to serve the broader interests of consumers through key distribution platforms Youku and Alibaba Pictures as well as other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, literature and music. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 31.2 billion, but was also not profitable.\nInnovation Initiatives and Others Revenue: This segment includes businesses like Amap, DingTalk, Tmall Genie and others. In fiscal 2021, this segment generated RMB 4.8 billion in revenue, but also an operating loss.\n\n(Source: Alibaba Q4/20 Presentation)\nWhen looking at the last annual results (fiscal 2021), Alibaba generated RMB 717.3 billion in revenue. Compared to fiscal 2020 (RMB 509.7 billion) this is reflecting an increase of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2021 was RMB 196.8 billion – an increase of 25% compared to fiscal 2020 (adjusted EBITA of RMB 157.7 billion). Diluted earnings per share actually decreased from RMB 6.99 in fiscal 2020 to RMB 6.84 in fiscal 2021 – reflecting a decrease of 2.1%. But we should not pay too much attention to the earnings per share. Instead, it makes much more sense to look at the free cash flow Alibaba is generating. In fiscal 2021, Alibaba generated RMB 172.7 billion in free cash flow compared to RMB 130.9 billion in free cash flow one year earlier.\nStrong Business Among Strong Competitors\nWhat is striking when looking at Alibaba – and what has been discussed several times – is the low multiple for which Alibaba is currently trading. When using the trailing twelve-month GAAP numbers, Alibaba is trading for 25 times earnings, when using the non-GAAP forward numbers, it is trading for a P/E ratio of 20.\nWe can compare Alibaba to its peers – companies like Amazon (AMZN), Tencent, Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) or Alphabet (GOOG). And Alibaba actually belongs in that list as it is not only operating in similar business segments, but it is also growing with similarly high rates. And Alibaba is not only growing with a similar pace; it is actually outperforming most of its peers.\n(Source:Alibaba 2020 Investor Presentations)\nWhile Alibaba is growing with a similar pace like these companies, it is trading for a completely different multiple. Right now, Alibaba is trading for a price-cash-flow ratio of 17, while competitors like Tencent, Facebook or Microsoft are trading for a P/FCF ratio between 35 and 40. It is striking, that the market is assigning these competitors a multiple twice as high and Amazon is actually trading for a multiple more than 4 times higher (price-free-cash-flow ratio of 76).\nData by YCharts\nRight now, readers might point out, that the comparison to Amazon is misleading as Amazon is still spending a lot of money to achieve future growth and therefore has a lower profit than other companies. And it certainly is true, that Amazon is still focusing on top line growth – sometimes at the expense of bottom-line growth – but so does Alibaba.\nWhile Amazon spent 10.4% of its revenue as capital expenditures in the last fiscal year, Alibaba spent almost the same amount – 8.9% of revenue. And when looking at the expenses for research and development, we once again see similar numbers. In the last five years, Amazon spent 12.16% of revenue on R&D on average while Alibaba spent 10.38% of its revenue on R&D.\nBut while these numbers are quite similar for both companies – Amazon is spending a bit more on R&D than Alibaba – the free cash flow these two companies can generate is completely different. While Amazon only generated 6.7% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year, Alibaba generated 26.5% of revenue as free cash flow in the last fiscal year – almost four times higher.\nAnd Alibaba is not only extremely profitable – it was growing with an extremely high pace in the past. During the past ten years, Alibaba could not only grow revenue every single year, it also grew revenue with a CAGR of 62.6%. Earnings per share fluctuated a little bit during these ten years but grew with an even higher pace – a CAGR of 76.29% during the last decade. And finally, free cash flow increased with a CAGR of 59.62% during the last decade.\n(Source: Author’s work based on numbers from Morningstar)\nWhen looking at Alibaba’s growth rates in the last few years compared to its competitors, Alibaba is also outperforming. When looking at the revenue CAGR of the last 5 years, we get the following numbers:\n\nAmazon: 29.26%\nFacebook: 36.82%\nTencent: 36.20%\nAlphabet: 19.47%\nMicrosoft: 8.85%\nAlibaba: 46.24%\n\nWe can spin it how we want: Alibaba is an extremely profitable company growing with extremely high rates but is trading at an extremely low multiple compared to its competitors. It is growing with a higher pace than Microsoft and Facebook, but trading for half the multiple. It is much more profitable than Amazon and also growing at a higher pace, but trading for a quarter of the valuation multiple. At this point, profitability and growth of Alibaba on the one side and the valuation multiple on the other side does not add up. And we have to ask the question, why Alibaba is trading for such a low multiple although it is outperforming many of its peers that trade for much higher multiples.\nRisks\nWhen looking at the past performance of Alibaba, we can see, that steep selloffs are quite common as a similar sell-off happened already three times since the IPO in 2014 with the steepest sell-off being more than 50% off the previous high.\nData byYCharts\nWhile this might help us a bit, we are still facing high levels of uncertainty and investors usually don’t like uncertainty. Basically, this uncertainty can be summed up in one short sentence: The tense relationship between Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma and the Chinese government is worrying for investors. And this tense relationship is exemplified by several events. It started last year, when the IPO of the company’s fintech affiliate Ant Financial was cancelled. \nThis was followed by theinitiation of an antitrust investigation, in which it is investigated if Alibaba had engaged in monopolistic practices (like preventing vendors from selling on other platforms). Additionally, new supervision for Ant Group was also discussed. And finally, at the end of 2020, Jack Ma went missing and it took about three months before the public would hear from him again – another worrying aspect for investors.\nAs long as we are talking about risks, there are other aspect I like to mention. I compared Alibaba to Amazon above – and I still think that comparison is appropriate. But we also have to acknowledge, that Alibaba growth potential is limited as the company is mostly focused on China and might have more difficulties to expand globally – compared to Amazon. But considering the growing middle class in China and the high pace with which the economy is still growing we should not worry too much about Alibaba’s growth potential.\nThere is a final risk Imentioned in my last article about Tencentand that risk is also applying to Alibaba:\n\n And a final risk is the fact that Tencent is a Chinese company. It is especially difficult to understand different trends before they are happening and predict the future, but while I am familiar with the German culture and the people (habits, preferences, etc.) and can deal with similar countries like France, the United Kingdom, Sweden or the United States, it is rather difficult for me to understand and analyze the consumer behavior and preferences of the Chinese population. This makes it difficult to assess the potential and development of the products and services Tencent offers.\n\nBut despite all these issues, there is a comparison I like very much. Very recently,one of my fellow contributorscompared Alibaba’s situation right now to Facebook a few years ago, when it was facing the Cambridge Analytics scandal and also trading for extremely low multiples due to the uncertainties. And it is also interesting, that Wall Street analysts as well as Seeking Alpha contributors are extremely bullish about Alibaba right now.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBalance Sheet\nWhen facing challenges, it is especially reassuring if we are dealing with a solid balance sheet enabling the company to withstand challenges and stormy market conditions. And similar to many companies mentioned above – like Facebook or Alphabet – Alibaba also has a great balance sheet. We don’t have to worry about high debt levels although Alibaba has current bank borrowings of RMB 3.6 billion and non-current bank borrowings of RMB 38.3 billion on its balance sheet. But compared to a total equity of RMB 1,075 billion, we get a D/E ratio of 0.04, which is negligible. Aside from the debt, the biggest problem is probably the company’s goodwill. On March 31, 2021, Alibaba had RMB 292.8 billion in goodwill. This means, that 17.3% of total assets (RMB 1,690 billion) is goodwill.\n(Source:Alibaba Q4/21 Earnings Release)\nBut aside from goodwill, Alibaba also has RMB 321.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents as well as RMB 152.4 billion in short-term investments on its balance sheet. Aside from these rather liquid assets, Alibaba also has RMB 237.2 billion in equity securities and other investments, that are also worth mentioning. I included a screenshot of the latest balance sheet, which is also including the numbers in US$. Especially $72 billion in very liquid assets give Alibaba a lot of “financial power” and the ability to negative troubles.\nIntrinsic Value Calculation\nI already mentioned above that Alibaba is trading at rather low multiples – at least when compared to its peers and especially for a company growing with a high pace. And compared to the company’s history, the stock is right now trading almost for its lowest P/FCF ratio since the IPO. A few times – in 2016, 2018 and 2020 – the stock was trading at a similar low P/FCF ratio. From that point of view, Alibaba has to be considered extremely cheap.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha Charting)\nWhen you are familiar with my past articles, you know that I don’t just use valuation multiples but also a discount cash flow analysis, which is considered to be much more precise (although we have to make a lot more assumptions). When taking the free cash flow of fiscal 2021 (RMB 172.7 billion) as basis, Alibaba has to grow about 5.5% annually from now till perpetuity for the stock to be fairly valued (the intrinsic value is RMB 1,367; discount rate 10%).\nInstead, we can also calculate with more realistic growth rates. If we assume, that Alibaba won’t go under, we have to assume at least 20% growth for the next year. Let’s be rather pessimistic and assume, that growth will slowly decline over the next decade and in 10 years from now, the growth rate will only be 6% till perpetuity. When using these numbers, we get an intrinsic value of RMB 2,596. And we have to assume, that these growth assumptions are rather cautious for a company like Alibaba.\nConclusion\nSo far, we talked about risks, about past growth rates, compared Alibaba to its peers and provided an intrinsic value calculation. I also wanted to write about the growth potential as well as the wide economic moat, that Alibaba has without any doubt – similar toAmazon,FacebookorTencent. But the article would probably be too long then. Instead, I included links to three articles in which I described the economic moat of these businesses.\nWhen summing up, it is quite simple. When we assume, that Alibaba is in serious trouble and might be brought down in some way or is facing troubles, that will seriously mess with the company’s ability to grow, we should not invest in Alibaba. These risks are present, and we actually don’t know what could happen in the coming quarters (or years). However, I consider it extremely unlikely, that China will destroy its second most-valuable company. If we assume on the other side, that this is just a small hick-up and troubles Alibaba can work through in the coming quarters and Alibaba will continue to perform in a similar way as in the past (even with growth rates slowing down), Alibaba is probably one of the most undervalued stocks out there and an extreme bargain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195062195,"gmtCreate":1621240773517,"gmtModify":1704354471107,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195062195","repostId":"1149212873","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110617265,"gmtCreate":1622448971057,"gmtModify":1704184577940,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mission","listText":"Mission","text":"Mission","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/110617265","repostId":"1187518687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196660198,"gmtCreate":1621048968914,"gmtModify":1704352442934,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/196660198","repostId":"1163454382","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":331797937,"gmtCreate":1609761883629,"gmtModify":1704979855136,"author":{"id":"3569403299315005","authorId":"3569403299315005","authorIdStr":"3569403299315005","name":"Kelvin1122","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be311b35abfdd5a67c6c650580af2bb","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569403299315005"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331797937","repostId":"331709241","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331709241,"gmtCreate":1609759239783,"gmtModify":1704979831632,"author":{"id":"3545856388559661","authorId":"3545856388559661","authorIdStr":"3545856388559661","name":"李东东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d0aa571d3f38d74e71ed02ae60e015c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545856388559661"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>今晚漲百分之三百","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>今晚漲百分之三百","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$今晚漲百分之三百","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/331709241","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. 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