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2021-05-28

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Bitcoin, GameStop and NIO bets turned this flight attendant into a millionaire: Now he's wagering it all in one final push to $3 million

2021-05-26

Ohhh

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2021-05-01

Rocks

1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves

2021-04-30

Upppp

Apple is in the middle of a supercycle for everything it sells, and the Mac and iPad are on a tear

2021-04-29

Great

NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

2021-04-27

Great

Oil Holds Drop Near $62 With Virus Flare-Up Looming Over Market

2021-04-26

Gogogo

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2021-04-22

Cool

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2021-04-15

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

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2021-04-15

Considering

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2021-04-15

To hold for long term?

Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?

2021-04-15

Probably hit and run

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2021-04-06

Good stuff

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, and videogame-retailer GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a> over a four-year period, he told MarketWatch in an interview.</p><p>He can technically call himself a millionaire; but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.</p><p>In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.</p><p>Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.</p><p>MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.</p><p>\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.</p><p>Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.</p><p>\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.</p><p>It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.</p><p>Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.</p><p>The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.</p><p>He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.</p><p>\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.</p><p>For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.</p><p>However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.</p><p>In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00999\">I.T</a>), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a>  in a deal announced earlier this year.</p><p>Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.</p><p>Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME.AU\">$(GME.AU)$</a>, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.</p><p>\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.</p><p>Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.</p><p>Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.</p><p>National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"</p><p>\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.</p><p>A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.</p><p>Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.</p><p>See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock market</p><p>Dawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.</p><p>There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.</p><p>His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.</p><p>But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.</p><p>Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.</p><p>Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.</p><p>So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?</p><p>He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.</p><p>Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.</p><p>By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.</p><p>Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubble</p><p>If his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.</p><p>Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.</p><p>His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:</p><p>He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.</p><p>\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.</p><p>\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.</p><p>Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> was too expensive for me,\" he said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.</p><p>In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.</p><p>Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.</p><p>MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.</p><p>\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.</p><p>Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.</p><p>\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.</p><p>It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.</p><p>Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.</p><p>The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.</p><p>He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.</p><p>\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.</p><p>For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.</p><p>However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.</p><p>In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OG<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00999\">I.T</a>), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a>  in a deal announced earlier this year.</p><p>Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.</p><p>Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME.AU\">$(GME.AU)$</a>, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.</p><p>\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.</p><p>Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.</p><p>Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.</p><p>National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"</p><p>\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&amp;P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.</p><p>A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.</p><p>Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.</p><p>See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock market</p><p>Dawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.</p><p>There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.</p><p>His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.</p><p>But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.</p><p>Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.</p><p>Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.</p><p>So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?</p><p>He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.</p><p>Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.</p><p>By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.</p><p>Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubble</p><p>If his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.</p><p>Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.</p><p>His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:</p><p>He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.</p><p>\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.</p><p>\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.</p><p>Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> was too expensive for me,\" he said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","GME":"游戏驿站","OGI":"ORGANIGRAM HOLD","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138517320","content_text":"Don't invest like Andrew Dawood -- you may never be as lucky.The Egyptian-born resident of Dubai turned roughly $50,000 in savings into $1.7 million on a series of white-knuckle bets on bitcoin , Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO $(NIO)$, and videogame-retailer GameStop Corp. $(GME)$ over a four-year period, he told MarketWatch in an interview.He can technically call himself a millionaire; but, he's risking it all to reach a goal of more than $3 million before 2025.In many ways, Dawood's tale represents the new type of buyer on Wall Street, eager to grow wealth and willing to make outsize wagers in the hope of minting boatloads of money on Wall Street -- even if it imperils the entire bet in the process.Dawood, who works as a flight attendant for one of the world's largest airlines (he declined to identify the company by name), said he saved about $40,000 over four years and invested the entire amount in bitcoin on the Bittrex exchange, among others, at an average price of around $4,200 between Aug. 13 and Aug. 28 of 2017, accumulating 9.71 tokens.MarketWatch looked over trade statements that he shared to confirm his transactions.\"In my mind, if it gets to $5,000 or $6,000, fine, then I will sell it and be more than happy,\" the 31-year-old told MarketWatch.Then mishap struck, he frittered away 3.95 bitcoins by attempting to boost his stake in the digital asset by selling as the price rose in the hope of buying more when it retreated in value.\"But it didn't work. Every time I sold, it just went higher, and I bought again quickly, I kept repeating and thus reduced my bitcoin to 5.76 bitcoin,\" he explained.It turned out to be an error that slashed about $70,000 from his account, at that time.Dawood said that he eventually sold his remaining bitcoin to a man he met through www.localbitcoins.com , a site that matches buyers and sellers of crypto and touts human-to-human transactions.The buyer wanted to wire him the sale proceeds but Dawood felt more comfortable meeting in a public place. Dawood arranged to meet at a nearby Dubai mall.He accepted 370,000 Emirati Dirham , the equivalent of about $100,000 at the time, in exchange for his 5.76 bitcoin.\"I counted the [money] and then deposited [it] in my 2 bank accounts in separate transactions.For most people, this is where the story ends, especially after taking a nearly 4-bitcoin profit in his crypto foray.However, Dawood was itching to find a fresh investment. So he bought 15,500 shares of NIO at $4.64 on Jan. 23, 2020, and another chunk of 6,565 shares at $4.12 days later as the stock slipped, before making a final purchase of 2,055 shares at $12.79 in July.In total, he was holding on to more than 24,000 NIO shares, which cost him a little over $125,000, including an additional $25,000 that he accumulated from winning bets in Organigram Holdings (OGI.T), and Canadian cannabis company Aphria, which was bought by rival Tilray Inc.  in a deal announced earlier this year.Nearly a year after his January 2020 buy, Dawood sold his more than 24,000 shares of NIO in December, bought at an average price of $7.18, at $46.603 for a total of $1.124 million, trading statements reviewed by MarketWatch show.Then, he took the money from his NIO investment and poured the entire sum into GameStop Corp. $(GME.AU)$, purchasing more than 50,500 shares on Dec. 28, 2020 at around $22.\"It's a stupid move, I agree,\" he told MarketWatch. \"And my friends and my family all told me not to.\" But Dawood did it anyway.Tales of thrill-seeking investors appear to be growing against a backdrop of a stock market that is flush with liquidity from central banks across the globe and a prevailing climate of low interest rates that have emboldened investors young and old to carve out paths that might make the likes of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)(BRKA) CEO Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch grimace.Brokerages, offering zero-commission trades are riding this wave of new investors. Fidelity Investments, for example, said that it added 4.1 million new accounts , according to data from JMP Securities, as stuck-at-home investors used pandemic stimulus funds to make stock bets.National Securities chief market strategist Art Hogan said that \"there are literally thousands of stories\" like Dawood's that \"worked out the other way.\"\"To me, this is a great sideshow story that really has nothing to do with investing whatsoever, but it's the nature of what's happening now,\" Hogan said.The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S&P 500 index  and the Nasdaq Composite Index  have seen choppy trade in recent weeks, but indexes aren't that far from record highs as investors wrestle with the prospect of higher inflation and a sizzling post-pandemic economy.A recent New York Times article made crypto trader Glauber Contessoto  famous, after documenting the 33-year-old's outlandish, leveraged bets on \"meme\" asset dogecoin , which had made him roughly $2 million as of early to mid-May.Dogecoin has taken a precipitous drop along with the rest of the crypto complex since then, however.See:Individual investors are back--here's what it means for the stock marketDawood says that he wants people to know his story because he thinks that too few of his friends and people his age are investing and he believes that saving isn't enough to grow wealth.There are a couple of things to know about Dawood's GameStop wager. Had he been as patient with his GME bet as he was with NIO, he would be a millionaire many times over.His shares would have been worth $17.5 million had he sold GameStop around the peak in January, and those shares would still be worth around $12 million if he owned them today.But he says he sold them at $33 because a paper profit isn't profit at all.Despite this, Dawood grew his portfolio to roughly $1.7 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but hardly the money that he could have made.Does he have any regrets? \"Of course,\" he said. But he's living with it.So what did Dawood do with the proceeds from GameStop?He put it back in NIO and that is where it will stay until it hits $100. He's already lost a chunk on that wager. NIO is trading at $37.92 as of Wednesday, or about half of where Dawood originally bought it.Meanwhile, he has been supplementing his income by selling covered calls against his investment portfolio. A call is an option that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price by a certain time.By selling calls, Dawood is effectively betting that the price won't rise above the strike price, while collecting the premium paid by the buyer for the option.Check out:How an options-trading frenzy is lifting stocks and stirring fears of a market bubbleIf his stocks rise in value above the strike price, he pays the option buyer the difference between the equity price and the strike price. If the stock falls or doesn't rise enough to hit the exercise price, he keeps the premium paid by the option buyer. He's earned tens of thousands using that strategy so far and has lived off some of that income and invested it in NIO, most recently.Dawood is currently on an eight-month unpaid leave from his airline gig as much of the world attempts to emerge from COVID. His expenses are minimal.His company pays for his apartment, where he has lived for a number of years and he drives a modest vehicle for a would-be millionaire: a 2011 Ford Figo:He said that he plans to end his high-risk parlays once he hits $3 million, at which point he may buy property and purchase something more staid and secure than meme stocks and crypto.\"I will tell you that when you contemplate things like that, when you say to yourself 'when I get to this amount, I will stop' or whatever your goal is...you're really just rolling the dice,\" the National Securities' Hogan added.\"Congratulations to him for how it's turned out so far...but this isn't investing, it's gambling,\" Hogan said.Right now, Dawood isn't blinking, despite NIO's recent slump. \"I believe in NIO,\" he said and plus, \"Tesla Inc. $(TSLA)$ was too expensive for me,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136270730,"gmtCreate":1622024157320,"gmtModify":1704366275616,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ohhh","listText":"Ohhh","text":"Ohhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136270730","repostId":"1104707088","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101317668,"gmtCreate":1619845012754,"gmtModify":1704335700525,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rocks","listText":"Rocks","text":"Rocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101317668","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146129324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619795610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146129324?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146129324","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric-car companyTeslahas now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle  pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter fro","content":"<p>Electric-car company<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.</p>\n<p>The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p>Regulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.</p>\n<p>Tesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale of<b>Bitcoin</b>to the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0906160cab581f4c8a599b7d0965d34\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.</p>\n<p>There's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?</p>\n<p>A ton of competition is coming</p>\n<p>Tesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.</p>\n<p>The number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.<b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.</p>\n<p>Those models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c651279799dfdf96552379a7b5d448a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>IMAGE SOURCE: GM.</p>\n<p><b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.</p>\n<p>Other car companies have big plans, as well.<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.<b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.</p>\n<p>Not only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.</p>\n<p>None of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146129324","content_text":"Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.\nThe problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.\nRegulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.\nTesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale ofBitcointo the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:\n\nDATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.\nThere's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?\nA ton of competition is coming\nTesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.\nThe number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.General Motors(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.\nThose models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GM.\nFord(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.\nOther car companies have big plans, as well.Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.Toyota(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.\nNot only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.\nNone of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103923407,"gmtCreate":1619744000709,"gmtModify":1704271679346,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upppp","listText":"Upppp","text":"Upppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103923407","repostId":"1102964214","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102964214","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619743934,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102964214?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple is in the middle of a supercycle for everything it sells, and the Mac and iPad are on a tear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102964214","media":"cnbc","summary":"Applereportedanother blowout quarterWednesday, showing 54% revenue growth and authorizing a mind-mel","content":"<div>\n<p>Applereportedanother blowout quarterWednesday, showing 54% revenue growth and authorizing a mind-melting $90 billion share buyback.\nBut while we usually spend each quarter talking about the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/apple-aapl-earnings-show-massive-jump-in-ipad-mac-sales.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple is in the middle of a supercycle for everything it sells, and the Mac and iPad are on a tear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple is in the middle of a supercycle for everything it sells, and the Mac and iPad are on a tear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 08:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/apple-aapl-earnings-show-massive-jump-in-ipad-mac-sales.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Applereportedanother blowout quarterWednesday, showing 54% revenue growth and authorizing a mind-melting $90 billion share buyback.\nBut while we usually spend each quarter talking about the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/apple-aapl-earnings-show-massive-jump-in-ipad-mac-sales.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/apple-aapl-earnings-show-massive-jump-in-ipad-mac-sales.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1102964214","content_text":"Applereportedanother blowout quarterWednesday, showing 54% revenue growth and authorizing a mind-melting $90 billion share buyback.\nBut while we usually spend each quarter talking about the performance of Apple's iPhone and Services segments, it's impossible to ignore the insane growth the company reported for Mac computers and iPads.\nApple isn't just in the middle of a new iPhone supercycle of sales. It's in the middle of a supercycle for everything.\nJust take a look at the Mac and iPad segments' performance during Apple's fiscal second quarter:\n\nMac revenue: $9.10 billion, up 70.1% year over year\niPad revenue: $7.80 billion, up 78.9% year over year\n\nThose are just wild numbers for two product categories that had been languishing for the last few years. Before 2020, the story behind the Mac was that Apple had put its PC development on the back burner in favor of focusing on its profit engine: the iPhone.\nBut that started to change last year with the perfect storm for Apple's Mac and iPad sales growth: the launch of Apple's own computer chip, the M1, and the spike in demand for devices to help people work from home.\nWhile the pandemic part of the equation is obvious, Apple also said the M1 played a role in the sales boom. On the company's earnings call Wednesday, CEO Tim Cook credited the M1 chip for fueling the growth, especially after Apple proved the chip can perform just as well as or better than theIntelchips it used to use for computers.\nApple also just added the M1 to its new iPad Pro model, which goes on sale Friday and ships in May. That gives the iPad the same power as the Mac. Apple executivestold TechCrunch this weekthat they hope adding all that power to the iPad will spur a new wave of software development to make the device much more useful for productivity tasks. If that works, the iPad Pro will be a viable alternative for people who want to use a tablet instead of a traditional laptop.\nAnd there are more reasons to be optimistic about the Mac later this year, when Apple will reportedly redesign its Mac laptops and potentially use the next version of its M-series chip in them.\nThere's just one caveat to all this optimism around the Mac and iPad: the chip shortage.\nCook and his team admitted on the earnings call Wednesday that therecould be supply constraintsfor some components needed for Apple's gadgets. But they sounded optimistic they'll be able to work through the issues.\nAnd don't forget: Cook made his name in the business world as a supply chain and logistics genius.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109402406,"gmtCreate":1619707749205,"gmtModify":1704271188715,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109402406","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183966356?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p>\n<p><b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>\n <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>\n <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p>\n<p>Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p>Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO Earnings History</b></p>\n<p>The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Key Metric</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p>\n<p>NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991><strong>InvestoPedia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374747377,"gmtCreate":1619482668099,"gmtModify":1704724580130,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374747377","repostId":"1117140629","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117140629","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619482353,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117140629?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 08:12","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil Holds Drop Near $62 With Virus Flare-Up Looming Over Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117140629","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"OPEC+ boosts demand growth estimate, cautions on Covid-19\nWTI crude futures add 0.2% after declining","content":"<ul>\n <li>OPEC+ boosts demand growth estimate, cautions on Covid-19</li>\n <li>WTI crude futures add 0.2% after declining 0.4% on Monday</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Oil was steady in early Asian trading with a Covid-19 flare-up in India and other nations dragging on the near-term demand outlook, even as OPEC+ projected a strong global recovery this year.</p>\n<p>Futures in New York traded near $62 a barrel after slipping 0.4% on Monday. An OPEC+ technical committee raised its forecast for demand growth in 2021, but cautioned that a&nbsp;resurgent virus&nbsp;in India, Japan and Brazil could derail the oil demand recovery. The second Indian wave has been particularly deadly as it overwhelms the health-care system and cripples&nbsp;fuel consumption.</p>\n<p>Indian Oil Corp., the country’s biggest refiner, is looking to offload gasoline into the spot market in a&nbsp;rare sale, while other processors are&nbsp;postponing&nbsp;planned maintenance at some plants as workers either flee or fall ill.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85665fb36dc3e16ebb8964cd16315b3\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The deteriorating outlook in some countries may pose a challenge to OPEC+ when it meets for a monthly&nbsp;ministerial meeting&nbsp;on Wednesday to discuss its production policy, although the group has already agreed to start adding more supply to the market from May. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said Monday that there are “positive signals” in the global economy, but also pointed to factors in the oil market that require ongoing vigilance.</p>\n<p>The prompt timespread for Brent was 62 cents in backwardation -- a bullish market structure were near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones -- on Monday. That compares with 40 cents at the start of April.</p>\n<p>The OPEC+ committee of technical experts forecast that oil consumption will rebound by 6 million barrels a day this year from last, according to delegates who attended the panel on Monday. Most of the fuel inventories glut built up during the pandemic will have cleared by the end of this quarter, they said.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Holds Drop Near $62 With Virus Flare-Up Looming Over Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Holds Drop Near $62 With Virus Flare-Up Looming Over Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 08:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/oil-holds-drop-near-62-with-virus-flare-up-looming-over-market?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>OPEC+ boosts demand growth estimate, cautions on Covid-19\nWTI crude futures add 0.2% after declining 0.4% on Monday\n\nOil was steady in early Asian trading with a Covid-19 flare-up in India and other ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/oil-holds-drop-near-62-with-virus-flare-up-looming-over-market?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/oil-holds-drop-near-62-with-virus-flare-up-looming-over-market?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117140629","content_text":"OPEC+ boosts demand growth estimate, cautions on Covid-19\nWTI crude futures add 0.2% after declining 0.4% on Monday\n\nOil was steady in early Asian trading with a Covid-19 flare-up in India and other nations dragging on the near-term demand outlook, even as OPEC+ projected a strong global recovery this year.\nFutures in New York traded near $62 a barrel after slipping 0.4% on Monday. An OPEC+ technical committee raised its forecast for demand growth in 2021, but cautioned that a resurgent virus in India, Japan and Brazil could derail the oil demand recovery. The second Indian wave has been particularly deadly as it overwhelms the health-care system and cripples fuel consumption.\nIndian Oil Corp., the country’s biggest refiner, is looking to offload gasoline into the spot market in a rare sale, while other processors are postponing planned maintenance at some plants as workers either flee or fall ill.\n\nThe deteriorating outlook in some countries may pose a challenge to OPEC+ when it meets for a monthly ministerial meeting on Wednesday to discuss its production policy, although the group has already agreed to start adding more supply to the market from May. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said Monday that there are “positive signals” in the global economy, but also pointed to factors in the oil market that require ongoing vigilance.\nThe prompt timespread for Brent was 62 cents in backwardation -- a bullish market structure were near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones -- on Monday. That compares with 40 cents at the start of April.\nThe OPEC+ committee of technical experts forecast that oil consumption will rebound by 6 million barrels a day this year from last, according to delegates who attended the panel on Monday. Most of the fuel inventories glut built up during the pandemic will have cleared by the end of this quarter, they said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374699131,"gmtCreate":1619442840623,"gmtModify":1704723920957,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374699131","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376890216,"gmtCreate":1619101182535,"gmtModify":1704719682790,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376890216","repostId":"1112163070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347097871,"gmtCreate":1618447995193,"gmtModify":1704710947699,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347097871","repostId":"1104945242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347097948,"gmtCreate":1618447986184,"gmtModify":1704710947199,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Considering&nbsp;","listText":"Considering&nbsp;","text":"Considering","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347097948","repostId":"1104945242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347095224,"gmtCreate":1618447908168,"gmtModify":1704710944743,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To hold for long term?","listText":"To hold for long term?","text":"To hold for long term?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347095224","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347096942,"gmtCreate":1618447734086,"gmtModify":1704710941641,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Probably hit and run","listText":"Probably hit and run","text":"Probably hit and run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347096942","repostId":"1145468327","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343884324,"gmtCreate":1617702867568,"gmtModify":1704701961883,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569406601334216","idStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343884324","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":374747377,"gmtCreate":1619482668099,"gmtModify":1704724580130,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374747377","repostId":"1117140629","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101317668,"gmtCreate":1619845012754,"gmtModify":1704335700525,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rocks","listText":"Rocks","text":"Rocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101317668","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146129324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619795610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146129324?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146129324","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric-car companyTeslahas now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle  pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter fro","content":"<p>Electric-car company<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.</p>\n<p>The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p>Regulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.</p>\n<p>Tesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale of<b>Bitcoin</b>to the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0906160cab581f4c8a599b7d0965d34\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.</p>\n<p>There's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?</p>\n<p>A ton of competition is coming</p>\n<p>Tesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.</p>\n<p>The number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.<b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.</p>\n<p>Those models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c651279799dfdf96552379a7b5d448a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>IMAGE SOURCE: GM.</p>\n<p><b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.</p>\n<p>Other car companies have big plans, as well.<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.<b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.</p>\n<p>Not only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.</p>\n<p>None of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146129324","content_text":"Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.\nThe problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.\nRegulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.\nTesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale ofBitcointo the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:\n\nDATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.\nThere's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?\nA ton of competition is coming\nTesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.\nThe number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.General Motors(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.\nThose models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GM.\nFord(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.\nOther car companies have big plans, as well.Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.Toyota(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.\nNot only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.\nNone of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374699131,"gmtCreate":1619442840623,"gmtModify":1704723920957,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374699131","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch in the markets this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109402406,"gmtCreate":1619707749205,"gmtModify":1704271188715,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109402406","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135349213,"gmtCreate":1622135607332,"gmtModify":1704180175725,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/135349213","repostId":"2138517320","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136270730,"gmtCreate":1622024157320,"gmtModify":1704366275616,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ohhh","listText":"Ohhh","text":"Ohhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136270730","repostId":"1104707088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104707088","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622016179,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104707088?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104707088","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading.\nThere is a report on the health hazards of smoking in ","content":"<p>RLX&nbsp;shares tumbled&nbsp;16% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37db14bc96219e50b02e0e2556e80f56\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"613\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-26 16:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>RLX&nbsp;shares tumbled&nbsp;16% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37db14bc96219e50b02e0e2556e80f56\" tg-width=\"1287\" tg-height=\"613\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104707088","content_text":"RLX shares tumbled 16% in pre-market trading.\nThere is a report on the health hazards of smoking in China was released, stating that \"there is sufficient evidence that e-cigarettes are unsafe.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103923407,"gmtCreate":1619744000709,"gmtModify":1704271679346,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upppp","listText":"Upppp","text":"Upppp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103923407","repostId":"1102964214","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376890216,"gmtCreate":1619101182535,"gmtModify":1704719682790,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/376890216","repostId":"1112163070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112163070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619099877,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112163070?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-22 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AT&T shares soared 5%，beats Earnings Forecast","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112163070","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AT&T shares soared 5% today,as beats Earnings Forecast.\n\nAT&T Inc (T) -Get Report posted stronger-th","content":"<p>AT&amp;T shares soared 5%&nbsp;today,as&nbsp;beats Earnings Forecast.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5dfe476a3ac14884cbc7fb53649dd6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>AT&amp;T Inc&nbsp;(<b>T</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;posted stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings Thursday as its HBO Max streaming service added more subscribers and wireless additions more than doubled Wall Street forecasts.</p>\n<p>AT&amp;T said adjusted earnings for the three months ending in March were pegged at 86 cents per share, up 2.4% from the same period last year and 8 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast.&nbsp;Group revenues, the company said, rose 2.7% to $43.9 billion, a figure that beat analysts' estimates of a $42.4 billion tally.</p>\n<p>AT&amp;T said it added 2.7 million U.S. subscribers to its HBO Max streaming service, taking the quarter-end total to 44.2 million -- and 64 million worldwide -- as it continues to challenge its larger rival Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;for new additions.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAT&T shares soared 5%，beats Earnings Forecast\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-22 21:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AT&amp;T shares soared 5%&nbsp;today,as&nbsp;beats Earnings Forecast.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5dfe476a3ac14884cbc7fb53649dd6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>AT&amp;T Inc&nbsp;(<b>T</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;posted stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings Thursday as its HBO Max streaming service added more subscribers and wireless additions more than doubled Wall Street forecasts.</p>\n<p>AT&amp;T said adjusted earnings for the three months ending in March were pegged at 86 cents per share, up 2.4% from the same period last year and 8 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast.&nbsp;Group revenues, the company said, rose 2.7% to $43.9 billion, a figure that beat analysts' estimates of a $42.4 billion tally.</p>\n<p>AT&amp;T said it added 2.7 million U.S. subscribers to its HBO Max streaming service, taking the quarter-end total to 44.2 million -- and 64 million worldwide -- as it continues to challenge its larger rival Netflix&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;for new additions.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"美国电话电报"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112163070","content_text":"AT&T shares soared 5% today,as beats Earnings Forecast.\n\nAT&T Inc (T) -Get Report posted stronger-than-expected first quarter earnings Thursday as its HBO Max streaming service added more subscribers and wireless additions more than doubled Wall Street forecasts.\nAT&T said adjusted earnings for the three months ending in March were pegged at 86 cents per share, up 2.4% from the same period last year and 8 cents ahead of the Street consensus forecast. Group revenues, the company said, rose 2.7% to $43.9 billion, a figure that beat analysts' estimates of a $42.4 billion tally.\nAT&T said it added 2.7 million U.S. subscribers to its HBO Max streaming service, taking the quarter-end total to 44.2 million -- and 64 million worldwide -- as it continues to challenge its larger rival Netflix (NFLX) -Get Report for new additions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347096942,"gmtCreate":1618447734086,"gmtModify":1704710941641,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Probably hit and run","listText":"Probably hit and run","text":"Probably hit and run","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347096942","repostId":"1145468327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145468327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618413259,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145468327?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Thinking About Buying Coinbase? - Here's Your Note","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145468327","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wednesday,Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.S","content":"<p>Wednesday,Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a50d61593da06ef4cdd7abd4eb27fc76\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Coinbase is going public today.</li><li>Instead of reading their +300 page S-1, read our 19 page note.</li><li>We discuss: digital currencies, store of value, medium of exchange.</li><li>Plus, a deep dive into COIN's model, storage, trading, price target.</li></ul><p>Manole Capital Management - Bitcoin &amp; Coinbase (COIN) - April 2021What is FINTECH?</p><p>Manole Capital Management exclusively focuses on the emerging FINTECH sector. For some investors, FINTECH means We define FINTECH as \"anything utilizing technology to improve an established process.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef8760c1da50e1776b14e4c10295f65\" tg-width=\"1133\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a Business Insider slide on the FINTECH Ecosystem</i></p><p>For us, the quintessential FINTECH business is the payment industry. As you can see in this FINTECH ecosystem Business Insider slide, we bolded the<i>Payments and Remittances</i>space, as that is our preferred area to invest. Others can invest in FINTECH's through Alternative Finance companies or digital banks or Insurtechs, but for us, we love the payment sector. We are attracted to the predictable, sustainable and recurring revenues of their businesses, where they essentially earn revenue per swipe economics.</p><p>When most investors discuss FINTECH, they rarely (if ever) discuss the exchanges. Similar to these payment and transaction-based models, many of the exchanges also earn revenue, free cash flow and profits per transaction or trade. When it comes to trading certain assets (interest rates, equities, commodities, foreign currency, etc), there tends to be high barriers to entry or an impregnable moat around certain franchises. While many of these businesses are not recession proof, they have proven to be recession resistant.</p><p><b>Financials:</b></p><p>While Financials only represent 11.3% of the S&amp;P 500 (as of March 2021), roughly 3/4rd's of this sector's weight is comprised of traditional financial institutions, like banks and insurance companies. These businesses are typically credit sensitive, with opaque and complex balance sheets. To simplify the banking model, the underlying asset is the US dollar and they simply look to borrow that capital at a low fee and lend it out to borrowers at a higher rate. This spread business can generate excellent returns, but it comes with a risk. Is the bank following a solid and time-tested risk model? Are borrowers credit worthy?</p><p>If an investor has exposure to the Financial sector, one should have a strong opinion on the 10-year yield. The 10-year stands at 1.7% and has significantly risen over the last several months. The Financial sector has a 5-year rolling correlation with the 10-year Treasury of 67% (per Scotiabank and Bloomberg research). We simply choose to not invest in banks and business models that don't have ourideal characteristics (click here).</p><p>As we stated above, we are attracted to businesses that generate steady and recurring and free cash flow. Unfortunately, most Financials are not transaction based business models.</p><p><b>Our Goal:</b></p><p>This note will review digital currencies, Bitcoin and the opportunity in the exchange space. We will use our over two decades of experience following and owning exchanges to draw some parallels for this new asset class. For example, there are \"big picture\" matters concerning storage, access, theft, usage, documentation, identity, rights and dozens of other issues. Blockchain and technology advancements theoretically solve some of these problems, but unfortunately not all.</p><p>Some digital currency or technology experts might find this analysis rudimentary. Others are new to this asset class and want a primer on the industry. That's our primary goal or target, is to provide an initial 30,000 foot view on digital currencies and then dive into the details of the largest (and soon to be public) exchange.</p><p>As always, we strive to present our work in a very readable format. If they had the patience to read our research, we attempt to write our notes so our 80-year father or 14-year old son could easily understand. We will try our best to review the requirements to be considered a currency, volatility, pricing, digital wallets, NFT's (non-fungible tokens), stable coins and some other digital currency issues. After that, we will do a fairly deep dive into Coinbase (ticker COIN). You can read their nearly 300-page S-1 filing with theSEC (click here)or you can let us serve as your \"Cliff Notes\" version. We will discuss their business model, how they generate revenue, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as provide a framework for valuation and a price target. We hope you find this latest research from Manole Capital topical and interesting.</p><p><b>Digital Currencies:</b></p><p>In our 1st quarter 2021 investor newsletter, which we published on Seeking Alpha, we discussed COIN's business and its opportunity. We wrote a couple pages on the subject, but felt it deserved a much larger and dedicated piece of research.</p><p>Before we dive into Coinbase, we wanted to provide our thoughts on Bitcoin and digital currencies. As we stated in the opening paragraph, Manole Capital believes the payments industry is the dominant FINTECH sector. Over the last 5 years, we have done a significant amount of work on digital currencies, trying to understand their best usage, functionality and role in the future of payments. Are digital currencies a threat to the payment networks, processors and merchant acquirers? In order to answer these questions, one has to understand how a typical payment transaction occurs. Who processes, clears and settles a card transaction?</p><p>We have written dozens of articles on this subject, which can easily be viewed here. In our opinion, there are two main requirements for something to be considered a viable currency. One is that it must be a \"store of value\" and the second is that it must be a \"medium of exchange\".</p><p><b>The Requirements To Be A Currency:</b></p><p>In order to be a viable currency, two specific requirements are needed. One is that the currency should be a<b>\"store of value\".</b>This is often defined as any asset that can smoothly maintain its economic value, rather than rapidly depreciating. The other requirement is that the currency should be a<b>\"medium of exchange</b>\" or an instrument used to facilitate the sale, purchase or trade of goods between parties.</p><p>In terms of speed and efficiency, there is no comparison when comparing the centralized payment system to Bitcoin's decentralized platform. Visa processes 1,700 transactions per second and it claims to have 40x the spare capacity, to handle 65,000 transactions per second. PayPal (PYPL) stated that during the 2020 holiday shopping season, it processed over 1,000 transactions per second. Using Bitcoin and its blockchain for global purchases and payments can process roughly 7 transactions per second.</p><p>As technology improves, one could argue Bitcoin processing will improve. However, if Bitcoin were to get used for payments, the conversion of crypto holdings into US dollars will dramatically increase overall network transactions. We are big believers in the concept of...\"if it ain't broke, don't fix it!\"</p><p>There are significant acceptance advantages to the existing payment ecosystem. Visa and Mastercard are accepted in over 200 countries and at over 40 million global merchants. Their payment acceptance brands stand for trust and allows billions of purchase transactions to occur each year. The Visa and Mastercard logos are known around the world, permitting the exchange of goods and services in seconds. While Bitcoin is slowly becoming more recognizable, it simply does not have the same acceptance. We believe the existing payment ecosystem handles the \"medium of exchange\" process well. The overall payment landscape is a well-oiled machine, that involves three to four parties, approving transactions in in roughly 1 to 2 seconds.</p><p>We have discussed the long-term opportunity for a FINTECH company or two to create a \"Super App Holy Grail\". This would be allowing customers to transact with their mobile phone, in whatever currency they wish, at all global merchants. Getting consumers to get rid of their leather wallets is easier said than done. Even though we consider ourselves to be fairly technologically savvy, we still have a wallet that looks a lot like Seinfeld's George Costanza's.</p><p>Several companies have recently announced their intentions to help spur Bitcoin acceptance. On March 30th, 2021, PYPL announced the launch of its \"Checkout with Crypto\" option. Participating merchants (initially ½ of PYPL's 29 million) can offer their customers the ability to pay for purchases using Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum or Bitcoin Cash. How will this work? Once a PYPL customer purchases or stores crypto holdings in their PYPL digital wallet, he/she will be permitted to use those funds at checkout. When a transaction occurs, PYPL users will see the option to apply their balance to complete a purchase. When customers choose this payment option, PYPL will exchange their crypto for US dollars through its clearinghouse partner, Paxos. The transaction will occur based upon a spot market rate, with a 50 basis point spread built in. PYPL will then remit payment (in US dollars) to the merchant, to satisfy the exchange of goods or services.</p><p>While this sounds easy, there are significant hurdles. Certain details are still emerging, but customers using this service must buy their crypto within their PYPL digital wallet. This will satisfy PYPL's adherence to Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines, but it doesn't solve all potential hiccups. The four cryptocurrencies PYPL said customers can use, are likely to cause problems. The SEC and IRS have not deemed these to be currencies, but instead, consider them capital assets. If they were to be used for payment, the underlying client will potentially have capital gain taxes, if their PYPL digital wallet has paper gains. If you are making a $20 purchase at Walgreen's, we don't believe customers are wanting to consider the tax ramifications of using their Bitcoin balance in their digital wallet. That potential $20 purchase could potentially cost you a tax liability of 100%.</p><p>Even if we ignore the large tax issues, there are additional worries. So, if the cryptocurrency in your digital wallet is going to be used to fund purchases, who is going to pay for it? Merchants will have to pay for the cost of converting cryptocurrencies into US dollars, whatever that cost might be. There will be the traditional merchant discount rates applied, but this will ultimately be another cost for merchants to bear. Besides a company like Tesla, that has a dynamic CEO, do you envision merchant's dying to accept additional costs to help their customers transact? Especially when cards are so ubiquitous?</p><p>So,Teslahas decided it will accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. What does this really mean? If a consumer has a sizeable gain in Bitcoin and wishes to use it to purchase a \"free\" Tesla, there are serious tax consequences. Just like selling an appreciated stock, where a consumer has to pay capital gains taxes, Bitcoin would be under the same burden. Until the IRS classifies Bitcoin as a currency, and not property, this tax problem will remain.</p><p>The second problem comes if the Tesla buyer decides to return his/her new vehicle. Tesla reserves the right to pay the consumer back in cash, worth the original purchase price, not in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin jumps in value since the original transaction date, the consumer would be negatively impacted. If Bitcoin falls in price, Tesla could return a depreciated Bitcoin to the car buyer. Are there hundreds of thousands of consumers yearning to purchase a Tesla with Bitcoin? We doubt there's too many, especially if they are aware of the tax issues.</p><p>Last week, Visa announced it would use various FINTECH API's (application programming interface) offered by cryptocurrency custodian and privately-held Anchorage. Visa plans to settle transactions using US dollar stablecoin, powered by the Ethereum blockchain. Once again, this is exciting news, but will likely encounter problems and take a while to come to fruition.</p><p>Before one uses Bitcoin to transact at the POS (point of sale), be actually believe it can become an excellent opportunity for money transfer. Western Union is about to turn 170 years old and can be considered the original FINTECH company. However, moving paper currency around the world is not terribly technologically advanced. Visa has launched an expanded version of its<i>Direct</i>platform, which will allow for cross border disbursements. Visa's platform supports real-time domestic and cross-border person-to-person, business-to-small business and business-to-consumer use cases, so the options are endless. Bill Sheley is the global head of Visa Direct, and he stated, \"Visa is innovating to give financial institutions, governments, individuals and businesses new ways to pay and get paid beyond the card.\"</p><p>On the \"store of value\" front, the total addressable market for assets is enormous. For example, art and collectibles are a $20 trillion market, gold is $10 trillion, real estate is $200 trillion, bonds are $100 trillion and equities are another $30 trillion.</p><p>50% of gold is used in jewelry and another 1/3 is used in electronics. While gold used to back fiat currencies, Britain dropped the gold standard in 1931. The US followed suit in 1933 and totally abandoned the gold standard in 1973. There are additional issues to consider like fixed or variable supply, as well as volatility concerns.</p><p>We agree that digital currencies are becoming a feasible \"store of value\". In our opinion, digital currencies have significant challenges to becoming a \"medium of exchange\". With that caveat, the opportunity for the crypto-economy and digital currencies to thrive is still open ended and vast.</p><p><b>Inflation:</b></p><p>The world is always looking for additional asset classes and stores of value, especially as governments keep the currency printing presses running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.</p><p>Last year, the Federal Reserve printed an unprecedented amount of dollars, roughly 1/5 th of all US dollars ever printed. On a daily basis, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces over $500 million over 38 million notes.</p><p>If you are the United States and the dollar is considered the dominant global currency, your perception of Bitcoin (or any digital assets) should be of concern. The ability of countries to simply print money should inherently be inflationary, yet Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to seek to get the US at and above 2% annually.</p><p>A couple of weeks ago, the Biden administration announced an infrastructure bill, called the American Jobs Plan, with a $2 trillion spending target. In March of 2021, US government passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. This followed a December of 2020 stimulus package of $900 billion, as well as a CARES Act in March 2020 bill of $2.2 trillion. We are not making a statement about the merits of any of these packages and stimulus programs. We simply are trying to point out the massive amount of money that is getting printed.</p><p>Many cryptocurrency bulls will cite inflationary worries with fiat currencies for why their digital cryptocurrencies assets are undervalued. We understand this argument, but always come back to an initial framework. If you are the US or the European Union or Chinese government, would you be able to control your society if there wasn't a viable currency in place? Would economies function without government control of its fiat currency? If cryptocurrencies become widely accepted and are considered a better version of payment, would governments be able to function? If the US couldn't issue additional debt to fund its spending initiatives, would it even exist? We just don't believe government regulators will allow certain cryptocurrencies to thrive, especially if it threatens their sovereign currencies.</p><p>We tend to look at this as a simple supply and demand equation. While Bitcoin has currently issued 18.7 million tokens, there is only a maximum of 21 million that can be created. That fixed supply is counter to some governments. For example, there are countries that have taken the printing of fiat currency too far. Zimbabwe is but one example of runaway inflation. Here's a picture of one of their 100 trillion bills. Yes, that's a 100 trillion. Do you want to be a trillionaire? Simply buy one on eBay for $8.99,by clicking here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375ab15b324158141f0eceee4633e5ca\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Source: This is a picture of Zimbabere's currency, that I took on myiPhone</i></p><p>As this Piper Sandler chart shows, Bitcoin now has a market capitalization of roughly $1 trillion. If we look at the top 10 digital assets by market capitalization, the vast majority of market share falls to just 2 currencies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f0caa7a9dbd54216c5e67fb83199d42\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a Piper Sandler slide/chart</i></p><p>It is estimated that Bitcoin is over 55% of all cryptocurrency market capitalization and Ethereum is roughly 11%. Cryptocurrencies like Tether, Binance Coin, Stellar, Cardano, Litecoin have a modest following and just 1% to 2% market share (all under $50 million in market cap).</p><p>Digital currencies should be considered assets, as they can be represented digitally, dynamically transmitted, and stored safely in the cloud. However, digital assets and cryptocurrencies have a long way to go to become used in our globally interconnected economies.</p><p><b>Rules &amp; Regulations:</b></p><p>In a perfect world, we think all assets should trade 365 days a year and 24 hours a day. In this hypothetical environment, assets should immediately process and settle and fees to transact should be modest. Why does the NYSE only officially operate from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm EST Monday through Friday (and not on holidays)? There are trades that occur pre-market and post-market hours, but liquidity and volumes are sparse. The simple answer is that this is the way it has always occurred and why should we change something that isn't broken.</p><p>The traditional exchanges have always had a set period of time where they are \"open for business\", but this is changing. For example, the technology backbone of the CME Group (ticker CME) is called Globex. It essentially permits 24/7 trading to occur on its electronic platform for equities, interest rates, commodities, foreign exchange and other assets. After years of investing in international growth, roughly 1/5 th of all volumes come from outside of the US.</p><p>In order to have access to Globex, there are rules one needs to adhere to, as exchanges are heavily regulated entities. Just like banks need to conduct AML (anti-money laundering) and KYC (know your customer) due diligence on its customer base, the exchanges need to follow strict guidelines enforced by their regulators.</p><p>As of today, we believe there are over 50 distinct blockchain protocols which support more than 7,500 various digital assets. Unfortunately, the financial systems are not known as entities that are quick to adopt change and technology. The world has embraced the internet, as a revolutionary and transformational platform. However, financial systems are not comfortable seamlessly exchanging data, information and assets. There are numerous activities like cross border payments or peer-to-peer payments that are ideally suited for technological advancements, but rules and regulations exist to stymie growth.</p><p>The goal of an open and transparent financial system is honorable, but not terribly realistic. In terms of managing one's assets, especially money, the process can be cumbersome.</p><p><b>Volatility:</b></p><p>If we accept cryptocurrency as a digital asset, we then want to better understand how value is determined, where it can be stored and how best to process and handle its exchange. With decentralized assets, the network allows participants to transact without intermediaries. Who sets the value and determines price?</p><p>The most notable cryptocurrency is Bitcoin and it has a CAGR of over 150%, from 2013 to 2020. In 2017, it rose 1,318%, but then fell by (72.6%) in 2018. In 2020, it rose over 302% and it currently is up well over 50% this year. Since January of 2017, there have been 5 corrections of 50% of more in Bitcoin, so it can be wildly volatile.</p><p>We are slowly getting comfortable with digital assets and cryptocurrencies as a \"store of value\" and believe they will become a viable asset in one's diversified portfolio. Each individual or entity needs to determine their own risk and reward framework, so cryptocurrency might be 10 basis points or 10% of one's portfolio.</p><p>Opinions on Bitcoin are changing every day. Back in 2018, the CEO of Blackrock (Larry Fink) called Bitcoin a currency \"for money launderers.\" A year earlier, JP Morgan CEO, Jaime Dimon called Bitcoin a \"fraud\" and threated to fire any bank employee who dealt with the currency. Fast forward to today: Blackrock (in January 2021) enabled two of its mutual funds to purchase Bitcoin, and a JP Morgan analyst recently published that he thinks Bitcoin could rise to $146,000.</p><p>Recently, large institutional interest has boosted the price of certain digital assets. High profile investors like John Tudor Jones (May 2020) and Stanley Druckenmiller have made sizeable purchases of various digital currencies. Other companies like Microstrategy (August 2020) and Tesla (Feb 2021) have made sizeable transactions for their firm's balance sheet.</p><p><b>Stable Coins:</b></p><p>A stable coin is simply a digital asset that is attempts to lower volatility by pegging itself to an actual fiat currency or physical asset (ex: gold). For example, Tether has a market capitalization of over $40 billion, is backed by US dollars and it's the largest cryptocurrency stable coin. One of the risks associated with stable coins is ensuring that the proper amount of fiat currency is held in reserve to match the amount of stable coins in circulation.</p><p>In prior official commentary, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia - Elvira Nabiullina - stated that Russa was against any form of private currency, as it threatened financial sovereignty. Russia's Ministry of Internal Affairs also was considering seizing all digital currencies and claiming cryptocurrencies criminal activity. Now, in January 2021, the Bank of Russia began to test a ruble-based stable coin. While starting cautiously, the Russian Central Bank is exploring the possibility of issuing its own digital currency. There are numerous countries that are investigating the process of issuing CBDC's or Central Bank Digital Currencies. China has studied the process of issuing a digital yuan, the European Central Bank is looking into a digital Euro.</p><p>Other governments and regulators have highlighted the risks of digital currencies. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority called crypto assets \"high risk, speculative investments\" where investors \"should be prepared to lose all their money.\" US Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chairwoman) Janet Yellen has warned on investing in digital currencies too. Just a week ago, India's Reserve Bank took a fairly bearish tone on digital currencies. Rumors are that India is looking to pass a law outlawing cryptocurrencies and making anyone trading or holding them punishable with sizeable fines. India's Finance minister is Nirmala Sitharaman and she said India's Cabinet will shortly issue a final ruling on the matter and that the governments ruling is \"under preparation and nearing completion\".</p><p>Will additional countries look to make cryptocurrencies illegal? These type of comments act as a governor to adoption and change. Politicians and governments are worried about losing control of their economies. Statements like this are further evidence that governments will remain a headwind. We aren't going to put this in the realm of a new \"space race\", but the country that embraces this technology first might have an early advantage versus those that are afraid of change.</p><p><b>Digital Currency Conclusion:</b></p><p>This quick digital currency discussion was created to set the framework for an analysis of Coinbase (ticker COIN). Will digital currencies replace traditional payment systems? We do not believe it will, but continued adoption and traction in digital currencies is noticeable.</p><p>Is Bitcoin poised to climb higher, or will it crash? We simply don't know. What we do know is that we prefer to own the medium where these \"assets\" trade. We would compare this to the Gold Rush of the mid-1800's. Back in 1849, owning Levi Strauss made a fortune selling picks, pans and shovels to '49ers looking for gold. Back then, some would say, \"There's gold in those mountains.\"</p><p>Nowadays, there's a huge opportunity in the collection of data and information. We truly have no idea what the price of Bitcoin will do, except we know that it will be very volatile. As we know, volatility leads to trading, which should equate to profits for the exchanges. Speaking of exchanges, let's now discuss another exchange and upcoming FINTECH direct listing - COIN.</p><p><b>Introduction to Coinbase (ticker COIN):</b></p><p>The stated goal of COIN is \"to create an open financial system for the world.\" While this is altruistic, it seems to be fairly broad based goal. It is noble to strive to create a financial system that is transparent for all mankind. It might be more prudent to strive to provide an end-to-end infrastructure and technology platform for all types of cryptocurrencies.</p><p>From our perspective, it might be judicious for COIN to focus its attention on providing value adding services for all types of digital currencies. If COIN becomes the dominant exchange where anyone can easily and securely send and receive Bitcoin, it will thrive. If COIN can create an efficient and accessible marketplace for the emerging digital assets community, it can be a massive success. There are hundreds of platforms that want to democratize access to the crypto-economy, but COIN (as the oldest and most recognizable brand) seems to have an early lead in this race.</p><p>Coinbase:</p><p>COIN was started in 2012 and it has built a trusted platform for accessing various crypto currencies. Using blockchain technology, COIN has simplified the user experience and reduced the complexity of purchasing, selling and holding digital currencies. In its early days, COIN was primarily just used for sending and receiving cryptocurrencies. Then, it became a trusted platform for those seeking to invest in various currencies. We liken this period as COIN's realization that it needed to become an \"exchange\" or intermediary between buyers and sellers. It has since launched cryptocurrency payments, distribution capabilities, storage, borrowing and lending services.</p><p>As this chart from COIN shows, there are over 45 different cryptocurrencies investors can purchase and another 90 that can be stored at COIN.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91cd70c100e3a8159938dd730935867\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1</i></p><p>However, two primary digital currencies dominate COIN's total trading volumes. In 2020, Bitcoin represented 41% of COIN's trading volumes and 15% came from Ethereum. While this 56% is a decline from 2019 levels (72% of the total mix), we envision both will remain the primary digital currencies traded on COIN.</p><p><b>Revenue:</b></p><p>Over the last several years, COIN has materially grown its revenue. In 2019, revenue $533 million and it impressively grew to $1.3 billion last year. As we show in our pie chart, in 2020, COIN's $1.28 billion of revenue grew 130% year-over-year and was a mix of 86% Transactional, 3% Subscription &amp; Services and 11% \"Other\".</p><p>On April 6th, COIN reported 1st quarter 2021 results and the metrics were eye popping. Last quarter, COIN generated $1.8 billion in revenue, which exceeded the prior two years combined.</p><p>In 2020, 86% of COIN's total revenue was<i><b>Transactional</b></i>in nature. This means revenue was derived from sending, receiving, investing and spending cryptocurrencies. When it comes to Transactional revenue, we like to look at the fee as a percentage of total volume traded.</p><p>COIN provided this diagram and it shows exactly what products are inside of each of its revenue classifications. The remaining 15% of total revenue came from<i><b>Subscription &amp; Services,</b></i>which COIN classifies as paying, distributing, storage, and from borrowing and lending cryptocurrencies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0466f39ad66c6fefeaeee25b50847fb\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1</i></p><p>Storing earns custodial fee revenue, which we will dissect in a couple of pages. Staking revenue comes from validation on a proof-of-stake blockchain transaction. License revenue is generated from users of its Analytics services. Lastly, COIN can earn campaign revenue or distribution fees when its constructs educational materials for issuers. For cryptocurrency issuers, COIN earns revenue for helping the platform engage with its users, in the form of educational videos or tasks, when cryptocurrencies are attempting to widen their distribution, marketing and acceptance. While these ancillary services are nice, the real opportunity is trading.</p><p><b>Customer Type:</b></p><p>In its S-1 regulatory filing, COIN showed its product portfolio, separated from retail users, institutions and other ecosystem partners. One has to understand that different clients are paying different rates. Over the last 8 quarters, this revenue rate has averaged 0.61%, with a high of 0.80% in the 1st quarter of 2019 and a low of 0.50% in the 4th quarter of 2020.</p><p>Looking at the last 8 quarters, we can clearly see that both retail and institutional trading volumes have exploded higher. It is interesting to see that Retail was bigger at $45 billion in the 1 st quarter of 2018 than it was at the end of last year at $32 billion. Also, one can see that Institutional trading volumes have gone from $11 billion in the 1 st quarter of 2018 and now are over $57 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b80fa39db4f3163a635e88da58642ed\" tg-width=\"846\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1</i></p><p>COIN has different fees depending on whether or not the client is retail or institutional, as well as whether or not the client uses Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, which we will discuss this later on, in our pricing section.</p><p><b>Trading volumes:</b></p><p>In terms of exchanges, it all comes down to volumes. Crypto exchange volumes have soared, because of strong interest from both retail and institutional clients. This type of growth will not continue, but volatility tends to drive overall volumes.</p><p>Looking at this Compass table, one can clearly see that volumes noticeably increased in 2018, following the rise of Bitcoin in December of 2017. What happened in late 2017 that helped drive future trading volumes? Well, CBOE and CME both launched Bitcoin future contracts that month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7170f3967e17422584307fc937c403b5\" tg-width=\"689\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from Compass</i></p><p>So far in 2021, COIN has experienced 298% growth in ADV (average daily volumes). What did Bitcoin increase last year? Just over 300%. There's clearly a very high correlation between Bitcoin's recent price and COIN's future ADV.</p><p>One of our favorites aspects of investing in the exchanges is the ability to simply model the businesses in Excel. The large, publicly-traded exchanges provide wonderful transparency for investors, by posting daily volumes. We liken this to Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley providing real-time insights into their prop desk trading results. You shouldn't hold your breath for that level of transparency, right?</p><p><b>Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Bitcoin:</b></p><p>In the real estate business, the common phrase is that the 3 most important items are \"location, location and location.\" For digital currency exchanges, we believe the 3 most important products are \"Bitcoin, Bitcoin and more Bitcoin.\"</p><p>On COIN's platform, the volumes tend to be concentrated in a few different currencies. In 2019, BTC or Bitcoin was 58% of COIN's trading volumes, but that fell to 41% in 2020. ETH or Ethereum was 14% in 2019 and that grew slightly last year to 15% of COIN's total. The biggest category jump came from \"other\", which was 18% in 2019 and grew to 44% last year.</p><p>Having multiple products to transact in is obviously key, but COIN is cryptocurrency dependent. Yes, tokens like Dogecoin might come in and out of favor, but COIN is dependent upon higher Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.</p><p>A great aspect to owning CME is their transparency. Not only does CME provide daily ADV, but they provide details on open interest. We like to follow open interest, as it is a leading indicator of future volumes. Also, CME provides details on large open interest holders (called LOIH's) or those owners of a minimum of $7.5 million of Bitcoin futures. Over the last couple of months, CME has hit all-time highs in volumes in Bitcoin futures trading. This year, Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME have averaged 13,800 contracts per day, up 42% year-over-year.</p><p>Like CME, COIN has invested heavily in its technology to give its customers access to a deep pool of cryptocurrency liquidity. Like we just described, this liquidity can act as a virtuous cycle. Volumes beget more volumes and leading more customers onto the platform.</p><p><b>Pricing:</b></p><p>We focus on the trading volume of an exchange, but also try to model how revenues are generated from this volume. Each trade does not generate the same level of revenue, as different traders tend to pay different prices.</p><p>In derivative exchange land, we often look at commission prices as RPC or rate per contract. For example, CME charges $0.478 a contract to trade interest rates, $0.545 to trade equities, $0.764 to trade foreign currency, $1.397 to trade metals, $1.336 to trade agricultural commodities and $1.124 to trade energy. Within each product, prices can vary. For example, WTI crude is a different trading price versus natural gas contracts. While CME is trying to get more retail customers into trading futures and options, the vast majority of its volumes are from institutions.</p><p>At COIN, there are different fees for different clients. COIN has two main fee structures, one called Coinbase Pro and the other called Coinbase Prime. Here's a quick look at the pricing tiers, as discussed in the S-1 filing, based upon whether or not a client is taking or providing liquidity (called taker fee and maker fee).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cba2058d6aac36d1f5fa59d2261be3c1\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"649\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from Compass</i></p><p>Transaction revenue, as a percentage of total volumes traded, has averaged 0.61% over the last 8 quarters. Over these 2 years, retail client transactional revenue has increased from 1.27% up to 1.47%. For institutional clients, revenues as a percentage of volumes traded has fallen from 0.07% down to 0.05%. Clearly, retail customers pay significantly more than institutional clients to trade.</p><p>Also, unlike transacting in a stock, COIN calls its transaction based revenue \"staking\" revenue. This is earned from transaction validation on a proof-of-stake blockchain, when COIN's nodes successfully creates or validates a certain block. This revenue is recognized when the rewards are available for transfer and at the point when the block creator or validation is complete. The metrics that determine the staking revenue are driven by quantity, price and rewards rate.</p><p><b>Customers:</b></p><p>The strengths of COIN's platform seem to be its vast and extensive network of contacts. COIN is leveraging its trusted brand to attract those that want access to transact or store cryptocurrencies.</p><p>COIN's growth strategy is based upon driving more customers onto its platform and becoming the de-facto platform for cryptocurrency. Just like the online brokers did in the 1990's, the key to growth was adding new accounts and clients to the platform.</p><p>In this COIN chart, one can see the exceptional growth in verified users or those that have \"demonstrated an interest\" in COIN's platform. In addition to these users, there are another 7,000 institutional customers, across roughly 100 countries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0ae20183f76b5f50213a6fba41d49f\" tg-width=\"671\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1</i></p><p>These verified users have registered for an account and confirmed either their email address or a phone number. In our model, we are not terribly interested in tracking verified users as a key metric. While it is nice to know who interested in cryptocurrencies, it is much more important to understand who is willing to transact.</p><p>As you can see in this Compass Point chart, COIN has 2.8 million MTU or monthly transacting users. In order to be considered a customer needs to have logged in and transacted one time, over a 28-day rolling period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e82feeeec96702e21745ad5bdc1c48\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from Compass</i></p><p>It is interesting to see that there were 2.7 million MTU's in the 1 st quarter of 2018 and 2.8 million MTU's at the end of last year. Over those 2 years, MTU's dramatically declined and then lifted. As of today, COIN has roughly 3 million MTUs, which was up +180% year-over-year, but we like to think of it as only 7% of its verified total accounts.</p><p>This reminds us of the online brokerage business, back in the 1990's and 2000's. For years, the primary goal of marketing executives at the online brokers was to generate more and more accounts. The theory was that with new accounts, clients would eventually look to consolidate their relationships with one or possibly two firms. Once an account was opened, the goal was to increase wallet share from that satisfied customer.</p><p>For online brokerages, driving customers typically comes from TV advertising. One cannot watch CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox Business without seeing advertisements for Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Fidelity or Interactive Brokers. Robinhood was very successful in opening up investment accounts for the emerging Gen-Z demographic, but its well-publicized issues in late January (regarding prohibiting \"meme stocks\" purchases) might impact its torrid account growth.</p><p>How does COIN plan on increasing its exposure and customer base? Our guess is that it will look to increase its marketing spend. The ROI or return on investment of TV marketing is somewhat opaque. We anticipate COIN learning from its foray into marketing and advertising, with some successes, as well as some failures.</p><p>The best avenue to increase accounts and customers is to offer a product that cannot be easily replicated. COIN can continue its account growth by launching new and innovative products, as well as offering access to new cryptocurrencies.</p><p>While BTC or Bitcoin is the dominant cryptocurrency today, maybe there will be a new and exciting cryptocurrency in vogue tomorrow. Over the last few months, Dogecoin has garnered significant attention and media coverage. While we shake our head and do not understand the fascination with this cryptocurrency, the goal for COIN is to attract and become the go to platform for those that wish to transact. COIN needs to expand its support of all digitally native cryptocurrencies and help to tokenize new assets.</p><p><b>Storage:</b></p><p>While the vast majority of COIN's revenue is trading based, COIN does earns subscription and service revenue when customers choose to safely store their cryptocurrencies on its platform.</p><p>COIN is one of the most trusted exchanges in the crypto space and operate as a \"qualified custodian\". This means that they have a separate company, called Coinbase Custody, which operates as a standalone, independently-capitalized business. Under New York State Banking Law, Coinbase Custody is considered a fiduciary. All digital assets are segregated and held in a trust. COIN has never suffered a hack that led to loss of funds and cannot afford to ever have that breached.</p><p>As you can see in this COIN asset chart shows, there has been excellent growth on the platform. At the end of 2020, COIN had $90.3 billion in assets on its platform, which was up +432% year-over-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa49892f328f6968397671bfc6bfbab1\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1</i></p><p>Of these assets, 70% was from Bitcoin and another 13% were Ethereum. Clearly, those two currencies represent the bulk of COIN's platform assets.</p><p><b>Wallets:</b></p><p>The leather wallet in your pocket holds a combination of cash and credit/debit cards. However, cryptocurrencies and tokens need to be kept in a crypto wallet. \"Hot wallets\" are connected to the internet and are considered much less secure, while \"cold wallets\" are kept offline. Most cryptocurrency custodians employ \"cold\" storage to safely hold a client's digital assets.</p><p>Acting as a cold cryptocurrency custodian (say that 3x fast), COIN derives fee revenue based on a percentage of the daily value of customer accounts. The assets under custody are a function of quantity, price and type of cryptocurrency asset.</p><p><b>Custody:</b></p><p>In addition to hot versus cold wallets, there are two primary ways to store your Bitcoin. The first is called self-custody. This is when an individual or entity has complete control of their Bitcoin. This entails maintaining and controlling your own private key. When it comes to Bitcoin storage, there is a popular self-custody mantra that says, \"not your keys, not your coins\". This implies that if you do not control the private key for your Bitcoin, it is not truly your Bitcoin.</p><p>The second way to store your Bitcoin is to outsource it to a trusted custodian, like Kraken, Coinbase, Anchorage or others. In this case, the custodian stores your Bitcoin for you and they have control over its private key. Kraken is security focused and has an time-tested private key management practice. In its 10-years of existence, it has never been hacked.</p><p>Whether one decides to self-custody or use an outsourced custody provider for storing your Bitcoin, two critical issues must be discussed. The first is trust. Do you trust the custodial firm that holds your Bitcoin? If one self-custodies, they bear the risk of lost private keys, break-ins or natural disasters. On the other hand, self-custody ensures you control your own Bitcoin. The obvious downside of self-custody is that one can lose all of your Bitcoin, if it is not stored properly.</p><p>Do you trust the bank that holds your checking account or brokerage firm that holds your stocks? US financial institutions are some of the most highly regulated companies in the world and most have proven themselves to be good custodians of our assets. Maybe we can exclude Lehman Brothers and AIG from that statement, but it is fair statement for the other 10,000+ financial institutions in the US.</p><p>Does trusting a firm called Kraken, with millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin, sound like a sound idea? Some might prefer to custody with a firm like Bank of New York, which announced in March of 2021, that it intends to enter the Bitcoin custody business. However, does Bank of New York have the technological expertise and security protocols of newer entrants like Kraken? With a random name like Manole Capital, we clearly don't place too much emphasis on one's name. We do however appreciate 3 rd party, independent industry rankings. Kraken has been voted the #1 most secure cryptocurrency exchange by ICO Ratings.</p><p>The second key issue to consider is protection and safety. Cryptocurrency custodians and exchanges are a prime target for hackers. There are hundreds and potentially thousands of thieves looking to steal your Bitcoin private key. PayPal and Robinhood recently sent warnings instructing their clients to install two factor authentication onto their digital wallets / account. Also, governments can force companies to freeze funds, if they perceive illegal activity or fraudulent behavior.</p><p>Trusting someone else to store and manage your Bitcoin is a challenging decision. There have been a few custody firms to have disastrous results (i.e. Mt. Gox), but there are also extremely competent businesses that can trusted to hold your cryptocurrencies. For us, we prefer an expert store our assets, as opposed to keeping it under the proverbial mattress.</p><p><b>Characteristics:</b></p><p>As we mentioned earlier, there are certainideal characteristicswe look for in our investments. COIN has a strong brand name and dominates its cryptocurrency niche. Its platform is scalable and by leveraging certain blockchain advancements, COIN can provide a safe and secure environment for its customers.</p><p>We often look for our companies to have dominant market shares, high barriers to entry and what Warren Buffett calls a \"moat around the franchise\". Regardless of industry, we always focus on an investment's market share. In terms of COIN's cryptocurrency market share, it has risen from 4.5% in 2018 to 8.3% in 2019 up to 11.0% in 2020.</p><p>For exchanges, there is typically 1 or 2 firms that dominate the trading of a specific asset. These exchanges have the best liquidity and the tightest bid/ask spreads. For example, the CME dominates US interest rate trading, as well as WTI crude trading. Intercontinental Exchange dominates the Brent crude marketplace. Once an exchange begins to control trading for a certain asset, it is very difficult for a competitor to steal market share. Some try to lower trading pricing and commissions, but this usually is only temporary. Investors are always seeking best execution and will usually return to the marketplace with the most liquidity and tightest bid/ask spreads. From an exchange standpoint, this is definition of dominant market share, competitive advantage or possessing a moat around your franchise.</p><p>Ideally, COIN is looking to become the one-stop shop for those wishing to buy, sell and/or store cryptocurrency. COIN has many of the desirable characteristics we look for in an investment, but it does have risks.</p><p><b>Risk #1: Bitcoin</b></p><p>For a business like COIN, there are literally dozens of risks. For starters, cryptocurrencies are volatile and we anticipate COIN's stock will be highly correlated to the price of BTC, Bitcoin and other important cryptocurrencies.</p><p>As we have mentioned, the underlying price of these cryptocurrencies helps to determine COIN's revenue and profits. Possibly the biggest risk for owning COIN stock will be its reliance and dependency on rising Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.</p><p><b>Risk #2: Competition</b></p><p>On the retail front, COIN has numerous competitors. For example, both Square's Cash App (36 million users) and PayPal (375 million accounts) are offering mobile-based wallets, primarily to retail clients. Customers can purchase various cryptocurrencies on both Square and PayPal and store them for free.</p><p>Over time, we expect both of these firms to begin to allow wallet holders to transact in whatever currency he/she wishes. For example, a customer can use their Square Cash App wallet to transact at over 3 million Square merchant acquiring locations. This mobile wallet will permit credit or debit transactions, but might also permit the user to utilize their Bitcoin balance. There are numerous issues that still need to be resolved on this front, but this is what we have been calling \"closing-the-loop\".</p><p><b>Risk #3: Regulations</b></p><p>Exchanges are highly regulated entities and they must learn to engage with their regulators for the benefit of all market participants. COIN is subject to a regulated environment, but the rules and landscape are dynamic. Unlike US financials, with a known regulator, the laws and rules cryptocurrencies are subject to are constantly changing. As COIN moves more of its business to international markets, it will have additional governmental issues to deal with.</p><p>The new SEC Chairman is Gary Gensler. Gensler was the head of the CFTC from May 2009 to January 2014 and was the primary regulator for the derivative exchanges. In his tenure at the CFTC, Gensler attempted to write rules and regulations for the swap markets, as suggested in the Dodd Frank Act of 2010 (following the Financial Crisis). Now that Gensler is at the SEC, one of his first challenges is what to do about regulating and providing oversight on Bitcoin and other digital currencies. He is not new to digital currencies, as he was a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management after his stint at the CFTC. He primarily taught about blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies.</p><p>As of today, there are only a few crypto funds available to investors. Grayscale has over $38 billion in assets and is the sponsor of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC), which is provides Bitcoin exposure for qualified investors. GBT investors have a $25,000 minimum investment and currently pay a 2.5% management fee.</p><p>Many firms (Skybridge Capital, Valkyrie Digital, Fidelity Investments, VanEck, WisdomTree, etc) have announced their intention to offer Bitcoin ETF's. attempted to get the SEC to approve Bitcoin ETF's. As of now, the SEC has not approved any of these filings, but it will ultimately have to make a decision on the subject. Earlier SEC rejections were based upon problems with volatility, transparency, market surveillance and market and price manipulation. We expect a positive Bitcoin ETF to be approved by the SEC in 2021.</p><p>In addition to SEC regulation, we anticipate the Federal Reserve to explore the subject too. Chairman Jay Powell, in official Congressional testimony, has officially stated that the Fed is looking into the idea of a \"fully digital dollar\". This type of \"Fed coin\" would likely need Congressional and White House approval and it is very much in the early innings of its examination. Chairman Powell is still dealing with the ramifications of a global pandemic and a soft US economy, so a CBDC might not be his first or even second priority right now.</p><p><b>Risk #4: Security</b></p><p>As with any exchange, security and safety is paramount. We anticipate that COIN will be subject to thousands of cybersecurity attacks. Hackers, criminals and even foreign countries might find it worthwhile to breach COIN's platform. COIN's valuation is dependent upon it keeping its first-mover advantage and its reputation as a dominant cryptocurrency custodian. Security, for customers and partners, cannot be underestimated and COIN will have a very large target on its back.</p><p>Scale &amp; EBITDA Margins:</p><p>For us, we always like to model in operating or EBITDA margins, as well as free cash flow for our exchanges. In 2020, EBITDA margins for the largest exchanges were impressive. Here is a table of the dominant four exchanges and their EBITDA margins last year, as compared to COIN. Looking at the 2020 EBITDA margins of its publicly-traded exchange peers, provides interesting insights. Last year, CBOE posted 68% EBITDA margins and CME and ICE each posted margins in the 62% to 63% range. Despite trailing their competitors, Nasdaq had impressive EBITDA margins of 55%, that would be the envy of most companies. One key takeaway is that all of the exchanges are generating impressive margins with excellent leverage and scale opportunities.</p><p><b>Exchanges: CBOE CME ICE NDAQ vs COIN</b></p><p>2020 EBITDA Margins 68% 62% 63% 55% 41%</p><p>These exchanges have spent billions of dollars building out a scalable platform, that has enormous operating leverage. Each and every transaction that occurs is extremely high incremental margins. Most do not provide guidance on future or forward revenue, but they do have decent insight into expenses. The CME typically will provide forward expense guidance in the 2% to 5% range each year. Expenses don't dramatically increase each and every year, but do modestly rise.</p><p>How does COIN compare? Well, COIN is still constructing its exchange and heavily investing in its infrastructure. Last year, technology and development expenses were $271.7 million or 21% of COIN's total revenue. In 2019, this expense line item was 35% of revenue.</p><p>In 2020, COIN's expenses grew 50% year-over-year to $868.5 million. At this early stage of its lifecycle, we are pleasantly surprised to see that COIN is generating positive operating leverage (expense growth less than revenue growth).</p><p>As you can see in this Compass Point chart, over the last 8 quarters, COIN's Adjusted EBITDA margins have steadily improved. Are they peaking or at an all-time high? No, but the best part about COIN's current margin trajectory is where we see it going.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d11356cbdbc81549a9f5422e6e0e4f\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>* Source: This is a slide/chart from Compass</i></p><p>In its S-1, Brian Armstrong (COIN's CEO) stated a focus on operating profits, as it tries to manage its expense growth. He said, \"We may earn a profit when revenues are high, and we may lose money when revenues are low.\" He then went on to state that \"our goal is to roughly operate the company at break even, smoothed out over time.\"</p><p>This has proven to be true, when one considers that COIN generated $533 million in revenue in 2019, but lost $30m of profit that year. Then, in 2020, COIN produced $527 million of EBITDA on $1.2 billion of revenue. Clearly, the exchanges can generate very impressive profit margins, at scale.</p><p>The real benefit for the exchanges comes when volatility spikes and volumes soar. As this happens, assuming the exchanges properly manages this rising volatility, profitability climbs. As more and more volumes transact on a platform, free cash flow (and margins) is very attractive. Operating margins at its other publicly-traded exchanges have been high for years and do not fluctuate significantly from year-to-year. As revenues surprise to the upside, because volatility spikes, these exchanges typically reward their shareholders with buybacks and special dividends. As much more mature businesses, these exchanges tend to allow this leverage upside to fall to the bottom line. We anticipate that COIN will choose to re-invest any revenue upside towards marketing, growing its customer base, improving its platform, and building up its infrastructure.</p><p><b>Valuation:</b></p><p>In their 1st quarter 2021 release, management provided a low-to-mid-to-high range for a number of key metrics. In terms of MTU's, COIN management provided low guidance of 4.0 million and high guidance of 7.0 million. In 2019, the net revenue per MTU was $37 and it increased to $49 last year. Over the last 8 quarters, the net revenue per MTU range has grown from $26 in the 1 st quarter of 2019 up to $59 in the last quarter of 2020.</p><p>In our modeling and analysis, we will stick with management guidance, which ranges from $35 million to $45 million in net revenue per MTU. This implies revenue for the final three quarters of the year could be in the $3.48 billion on the low side and up to $4.64 billion on the high side. If we simply average these low and high ranges, 2021 revenue would be $4.1 billion. Considering COIN did $1.8 billion in revenue in the 1 st quarter alone, it is probably safe to assume that 2021 revenue will approach $4 billion this year. Our model is fairly detailed, but for this exercise, we will use a nice round $4.0 billion in 2021 revenue. Then, for 2022, we will assume 15% growth, to $4.6 billion. This does not seem like we are being aggressive. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised if COIN generates this level of revenue a full year earlier.</p><p>Without making an assumption on future volume growth, we need to estimate profit margins for COIN. Over the next decade, we would expect COIN to post EBITDA margins into the mid-50's%. Over the next one to two years, we would like COIN to annually increase margins by 200 basis points. This should be do-able, even with COIN making significant investments in their operational technology and platform.</p><p><b>Stock Trading vs Fundamentals:</b></p><p>It can be challenging to sometimes separate the volatility of a stock from its underlying fundamentals. For example, the primary exchange to trade interest rates is the CME. When it comes to trading Brent crude, most traders prefer ICE (although WTI is primarily traded on CME). While both of these exchanges trade hundreds of other products and assets, those two products (interest rates and Brent crude) tend to materially impact the exchange stock price.</p><p>When it comes to COIN, we anticipate the stock will trade very closely to the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. If both digital currencies continue to rise, COIN's stock will be a solid success. If Bitcoin falls by (80%), like it did in 2019, COIN's stock will dramatically fall. In a world with massive Bitcoin volatility, COIN's underlying fundamentals should be good. In theory, COIN's stock should correlate and reflect the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, not just their upward trajectory. However, we fully anticipate COIN's stock to trade in-line with the success or failure of Bitcoin.</p><p>Today's reality is that certain market participants are not long-term investors. Many unfortunately consider stocks as pieces of paper, as short-term trading instruments. If Bitcoin were to struggle and decline in value, that volatility and environment would be excellent for COIN. In fact, that might be a great time to \"dip one's toe\" into a position. However, the Reddit and Wall Street Bets community is more likely to consider short-term trading momentum than bottoms up, underlying fundamentals.</p><p>As we discussed earlier, COIN generated an impressive 2020 operating margin of 32%, compared to a (9%) in 2019. While some companies can post steady and smooth operating margins, COIN's will be much lumpier, at least until it is less Bitcoin becomes less volatile. Also, COIN has $188 million of cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, comprised mainly of $130 million of Bitcoin and $24 million of Ether. There will be opportunities to purchase COIN, when short-term investors sell. This will likely occur as COIN ramps up its expenses or when Bitcoin falls.</p><p><b>Price Target:</b></p><p>Over the next month or so, we anticipate most sell-side analysts will publish targets on COIN. Unfortunately, most will use revenue multiples to determine their price targets. Manole Capital only owns companies that generate earnings and free cash flow, so we are loathe to utilize revenue multiples for price targets. We find that companies that use revenue multiples to justify a valuation are often incapable of generating important free cash flow. We are fine with companies investing in their future to ensure growth, but we cannot invest in companies that aren't concerned with free cash flow. For us, using the crutch of a revenue multiples isn't something we are comfortable doing.</p><p>Fortunately, for this analysis of COIN, the company generates plenty of profit and free cash flow. We conservatively model COIN's revenue next year at $4.6 billion. Also, we believe it can add a point or two to EBITDA margins, into the mid-40% range. That would be 2021 EBITDA of $2.1 billion or $11.89 per share. We don't want to sound like a \"wise old sage\", but in the \"olden days\", investors could utilize reasonable EV (enterprise value) to EBITDA multiples in the 10x to 15x range. Maybe, if a company was experiencing fantastic growth and was getting acquired, you might see an EBITDA multiple approach 20x. Nasdaq, ICE and CBOE all have trailing EV to EBITDA multiples in the mid-to-high teens. In order to be remotely close to where COIN will trade this week, we would have to use a MarketAxess (MKTX) or Tradeweb (TW) lofty TTM EV to EBITDA multiples of roughly 45x. We just don't believe EV to EBITDA is the proper valuation metric to currently use. Should we use another cryptocurrency company like Silvergate (SI) and estimate a valuation using their EV to EBITDA multiple? At 108x trailing EBITDA, that would be a waste of time.</p><p>To arrive at a realistic COIN price target, let's just model earnings and use a premium forward P/E multiple. If we apply a tax rate of 25% (not assuming any tax loss carryovers), we can estimate an EPS in 2021 of $8.50.</p><p>Using that $8.50 per share in EPS, we then want to apply an exchange-like multiple, adding in a premium for COIN due to its exceptional growth. The average publicly-traded exchange trades at a forward P/E multiple of 20x. The table below provides some different targets, based upon the premium P/E one believes COIN deserves.</p><p><b>Forward P/E Multiple 25x 30x 40x 45x 50x</b></p><p>Premium to Peers 20% 50% 100%</p><p>COIN Target $213 $255 $340 $381 $426</p><p>On Wednesday, initial projections are looking for COIN to trade towards $65 billion, which implies $350 per share. We fully anticipate COIN rocketing past $400 and potentially closing the day in the $500 per share range. This would imply a market capitalization of COIN of $93 billion, which is approaching the $100 billion level that have been rumored to have occurred on some private exchanges.</p><p><b>Conclusion:</b></p><p>We expect COIN's direct listing on April 14th to be \"hot\".</p><p>In a typical IPO, companies raise capital and provide exclusive, early access to large institutions. With wire houses placing shares into large institutions and asset managers first, retail investors often get shut out. Retail platforms like Schwab, Ameritrade, Robinhood, Fidelity typically cannot access IPOs for their customers.</p><p>Since COIN has over $1 billion of cash on its balance sheet and does not need capital, it has decided to do a direct listing. The advantage of a direct listing is that it will enable retail investors to purchase COIN at the same time as larger institutions. Once COIN begins to trade freely on the Nasdaq exchange, both retail and institutional traders can participate. With 186 million shares outstanding, the market will ultimately determine what share price COIN trades at. We expect a flood of market orders, creating an interesting first day of trading.</p><p>Is the lofty valuation we just laid out fair? Probably not, but that's what the market will determine. Is this a realistic scenario? Are our forecasts too conservative? Should you be an aggressive buyer? We think our estimates are fair, but COIN will likely immediately trade towards an aggressive multiple.</p><p>If you don't want to pay that kind of forward multiple for COIN, there are other alternative. Maybe you should consider an investment in some of the other (and less expensive) exchanges, like Nasdaq or CBOE? These companies do not have the same growth prospects as COIN, but they do come with a much smaller price tag.</p><p>We believe that COIN is a safe, trusted and easy-to-use platform for trading digital currencies. Some investors believe that they have \"missed out\" on the meteoric rise of Bitcoin, so they might chase a position in COIN. Others will look at COIN as a long-term opportunity to own the dominant digital currency exchange.</p><p>In our opinion, owners should be willing to pay a premium for COIN shares, but they should also be prepared for significant volatility and competition. Only you know your specific risk/reward tolerances. Only time will tell the answers to some of these questions, but we'll get a good idea on Wednesday, once COIN trading begins.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thinking About Buying Coinbase? - Here's Your Note</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThinking About Buying Coinbase? - Here's Your Note\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 23:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419039-thinking-of-buying-coinbase><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wednesday,Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase is going public today.Instead of reading their +300 page S-1, read our 19 page note....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419039-thinking-of-buying-coinbase\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419039-thinking-of-buying-coinbase","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1145468327","content_text":"Wednesday,Coinbase shares open at $381 on Nasdaq, valuing cryptocurrency exchange at $99.6 billion.SummaryCoinbase is going public today.Instead of reading their +300 page S-1, read our 19 page note.We discuss: digital currencies, store of value, medium of exchange.Plus, a deep dive into COIN's model, storage, trading, price target.Manole Capital Management - Bitcoin & Coinbase (COIN) - April 2021What is FINTECH?Manole Capital Management exclusively focuses on the emerging FINTECH sector. For some investors, FINTECH means We define FINTECH as \"anything utilizing technology to improve an established process.\"* Source: This is a Business Insider slide on the FINTECH EcosystemFor us, the quintessential FINTECH business is the payment industry. As you can see in this FINTECH ecosystem Business Insider slide, we bolded thePayments and Remittancesspace, as that is our preferred area to invest. Others can invest in FINTECH's through Alternative Finance companies or digital banks or Insurtechs, but for us, we love the payment sector. We are attracted to the predictable, sustainable and recurring revenues of their businesses, where they essentially earn revenue per swipe economics.When most investors discuss FINTECH, they rarely (if ever) discuss the exchanges. Similar to these payment and transaction-based models, many of the exchanges also earn revenue, free cash flow and profits per transaction or trade. When it comes to trading certain assets (interest rates, equities, commodities, foreign currency, etc), there tends to be high barriers to entry or an impregnable moat around certain franchises. While many of these businesses are not recession proof, they have proven to be recession resistant.Financials:While Financials only represent 11.3% of the S&P 500 (as of March 2021), roughly 3/4rd's of this sector's weight is comprised of traditional financial institutions, like banks and insurance companies. These businesses are typically credit sensitive, with opaque and complex balance sheets. To simplify the banking model, the underlying asset is the US dollar and they simply look to borrow that capital at a low fee and lend it out to borrowers at a higher rate. This spread business can generate excellent returns, but it comes with a risk. Is the bank following a solid and time-tested risk model? Are borrowers credit worthy?If an investor has exposure to the Financial sector, one should have a strong opinion on the 10-year yield. The 10-year stands at 1.7% and has significantly risen over the last several months. The Financial sector has a 5-year rolling correlation with the 10-year Treasury of 67% (per Scotiabank and Bloomberg research). We simply choose to not invest in banks and business models that don't have ourideal characteristics (click here).As we stated above, we are attracted to businesses that generate steady and recurring and free cash flow. Unfortunately, most Financials are not transaction based business models.Our Goal:This note will review digital currencies, Bitcoin and the opportunity in the exchange space. We will use our over two decades of experience following and owning exchanges to draw some parallels for this new asset class. For example, there are \"big picture\" matters concerning storage, access, theft, usage, documentation, identity, rights and dozens of other issues. Blockchain and technology advancements theoretically solve some of these problems, but unfortunately not all.Some digital currency or technology experts might find this analysis rudimentary. Others are new to this asset class and want a primer on the industry. That's our primary goal or target, is to provide an initial 30,000 foot view on digital currencies and then dive into the details of the largest (and soon to be public) exchange.As always, we strive to present our work in a very readable format. If they had the patience to read our research, we attempt to write our notes so our 80-year father or 14-year old son could easily understand. We will try our best to review the requirements to be considered a currency, volatility, pricing, digital wallets, NFT's (non-fungible tokens), stable coins and some other digital currency issues. After that, we will do a fairly deep dive into Coinbase (ticker COIN). You can read their nearly 300-page S-1 filing with theSEC (click here)or you can let us serve as your \"Cliff Notes\" version. We will discuss their business model, how they generate revenue, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as provide a framework for valuation and a price target. We hope you find this latest research from Manole Capital topical and interesting.Digital Currencies:In our 1st quarter 2021 investor newsletter, which we published on Seeking Alpha, we discussed COIN's business and its opportunity. We wrote a couple pages on the subject, but felt it deserved a much larger and dedicated piece of research.Before we dive into Coinbase, we wanted to provide our thoughts on Bitcoin and digital currencies. As we stated in the opening paragraph, Manole Capital believes the payments industry is the dominant FINTECH sector. Over the last 5 years, we have done a significant amount of work on digital currencies, trying to understand their best usage, functionality and role in the future of payments. Are digital currencies a threat to the payment networks, processors and merchant acquirers? In order to answer these questions, one has to understand how a typical payment transaction occurs. Who processes, clears and settles a card transaction?We have written dozens of articles on this subject, which can easily be viewed here. In our opinion, there are two main requirements for something to be considered a viable currency. One is that it must be a \"store of value\" and the second is that it must be a \"medium of exchange\".The Requirements To Be A Currency:In order to be a viable currency, two specific requirements are needed. One is that the currency should be a\"store of value\".This is often defined as any asset that can smoothly maintain its economic value, rather than rapidly depreciating. The other requirement is that the currency should be a\"medium of exchange\" or an instrument used to facilitate the sale, purchase or trade of goods between parties.In terms of speed and efficiency, there is no comparison when comparing the centralized payment system to Bitcoin's decentralized platform. Visa processes 1,700 transactions per second and it claims to have 40x the spare capacity, to handle 65,000 transactions per second. PayPal (PYPL) stated that during the 2020 holiday shopping season, it processed over 1,000 transactions per second. Using Bitcoin and its blockchain for global purchases and payments can process roughly 7 transactions per second.As technology improves, one could argue Bitcoin processing will improve. However, if Bitcoin were to get used for payments, the conversion of crypto holdings into US dollars will dramatically increase overall network transactions. We are big believers in the concept of...\"if it ain't broke, don't fix it!\"There are significant acceptance advantages to the existing payment ecosystem. Visa and Mastercard are accepted in over 200 countries and at over 40 million global merchants. Their payment acceptance brands stand for trust and allows billions of purchase transactions to occur each year. The Visa and Mastercard logos are known around the world, permitting the exchange of goods and services in seconds. While Bitcoin is slowly becoming more recognizable, it simply does not have the same acceptance. We believe the existing payment ecosystem handles the \"medium of exchange\" process well. The overall payment landscape is a well-oiled machine, that involves three to four parties, approving transactions in in roughly 1 to 2 seconds.We have discussed the long-term opportunity for a FINTECH company or two to create a \"Super App Holy Grail\". This would be allowing customers to transact with their mobile phone, in whatever currency they wish, at all global merchants. Getting consumers to get rid of their leather wallets is easier said than done. Even though we consider ourselves to be fairly technologically savvy, we still have a wallet that looks a lot like Seinfeld's George Costanza's.Several companies have recently announced their intentions to help spur Bitcoin acceptance. On March 30th, 2021, PYPL announced the launch of its \"Checkout with Crypto\" option. Participating merchants (initially ½ of PYPL's 29 million) can offer their customers the ability to pay for purchases using Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum or Bitcoin Cash. How will this work? Once a PYPL customer purchases or stores crypto holdings in their PYPL digital wallet, he/she will be permitted to use those funds at checkout. When a transaction occurs, PYPL users will see the option to apply their balance to complete a purchase. When customers choose this payment option, PYPL will exchange their crypto for US dollars through its clearinghouse partner, Paxos. The transaction will occur based upon a spot market rate, with a 50 basis point spread built in. PYPL will then remit payment (in US dollars) to the merchant, to satisfy the exchange of goods or services.While this sounds easy, there are significant hurdles. Certain details are still emerging, but customers using this service must buy their crypto within their PYPL digital wallet. This will satisfy PYPL's adherence to Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines, but it doesn't solve all potential hiccups. The four cryptocurrencies PYPL said customers can use, are likely to cause problems. The SEC and IRS have not deemed these to be currencies, but instead, consider them capital assets. If they were to be used for payment, the underlying client will potentially have capital gain taxes, if their PYPL digital wallet has paper gains. If you are making a $20 purchase at Walgreen's, we don't believe customers are wanting to consider the tax ramifications of using their Bitcoin balance in their digital wallet. That potential $20 purchase could potentially cost you a tax liability of 100%.Even if we ignore the large tax issues, there are additional worries. So, if the cryptocurrency in your digital wallet is going to be used to fund purchases, who is going to pay for it? Merchants will have to pay for the cost of converting cryptocurrencies into US dollars, whatever that cost might be. There will be the traditional merchant discount rates applied, but this will ultimately be another cost for merchants to bear. Besides a company like Tesla, that has a dynamic CEO, do you envision merchant's dying to accept additional costs to help their customers transact? Especially when cards are so ubiquitous?So,Teslahas decided it will accept Bitcoin as a form of payment. What does this really mean? If a consumer has a sizeable gain in Bitcoin and wishes to use it to purchase a \"free\" Tesla, there are serious tax consequences. Just like selling an appreciated stock, where a consumer has to pay capital gains taxes, Bitcoin would be under the same burden. Until the IRS classifies Bitcoin as a currency, and not property, this tax problem will remain.The second problem comes if the Tesla buyer decides to return his/her new vehicle. Tesla reserves the right to pay the consumer back in cash, worth the original purchase price, not in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin jumps in value since the original transaction date, the consumer would be negatively impacted. If Bitcoin falls in price, Tesla could return a depreciated Bitcoin to the car buyer. Are there hundreds of thousands of consumers yearning to purchase a Tesla with Bitcoin? We doubt there's too many, especially if they are aware of the tax issues.Last week, Visa announced it would use various FINTECH API's (application programming interface) offered by cryptocurrency custodian and privately-held Anchorage. Visa plans to settle transactions using US dollar stablecoin, powered by the Ethereum blockchain. Once again, this is exciting news, but will likely encounter problems and take a while to come to fruition.Before one uses Bitcoin to transact at the POS (point of sale), be actually believe it can become an excellent opportunity for money transfer. Western Union is about to turn 170 years old and can be considered the original FINTECH company. However, moving paper currency around the world is not terribly technologically advanced. Visa has launched an expanded version of itsDirectplatform, which will allow for cross border disbursements. Visa's platform supports real-time domestic and cross-border person-to-person, business-to-small business and business-to-consumer use cases, so the options are endless. Bill Sheley is the global head of Visa Direct, and he stated, \"Visa is innovating to give financial institutions, governments, individuals and businesses new ways to pay and get paid beyond the card.\"On the \"store of value\" front, the total addressable market for assets is enormous. For example, art and collectibles are a $20 trillion market, gold is $10 trillion, real estate is $200 trillion, bonds are $100 trillion and equities are another $30 trillion.50% of gold is used in jewelry and another 1/3 is used in electronics. While gold used to back fiat currencies, Britain dropped the gold standard in 1931. The US followed suit in 1933 and totally abandoned the gold standard in 1973. There are additional issues to consider like fixed or variable supply, as well as volatility concerns.We agree that digital currencies are becoming a feasible \"store of value\". In our opinion, digital currencies have significant challenges to becoming a \"medium of exchange\". With that caveat, the opportunity for the crypto-economy and digital currencies to thrive is still open ended and vast.Inflation:The world is always looking for additional asset classes and stores of value, especially as governments keep the currency printing presses running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.Last year, the Federal Reserve printed an unprecedented amount of dollars, roughly 1/5 th of all US dollars ever printed. On a daily basis, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing produces over $500 million over 38 million notes.If you are the United States and the dollar is considered the dominant global currency, your perception of Bitcoin (or any digital assets) should be of concern. The ability of countries to simply print money should inherently be inflationary, yet Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to seek to get the US at and above 2% annually.A couple of weeks ago, the Biden administration announced an infrastructure bill, called the American Jobs Plan, with a $2 trillion spending target. In March of 2021, US government passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. This followed a December of 2020 stimulus package of $900 billion, as well as a CARES Act in March 2020 bill of $2.2 trillion. We are not making a statement about the merits of any of these packages and stimulus programs. We simply are trying to point out the massive amount of money that is getting printed.Many cryptocurrency bulls will cite inflationary worries with fiat currencies for why their digital cryptocurrencies assets are undervalued. We understand this argument, but always come back to an initial framework. If you are the US or the European Union or Chinese government, would you be able to control your society if there wasn't a viable currency in place? Would economies function without government control of its fiat currency? If cryptocurrencies become widely accepted and are considered a better version of payment, would governments be able to function? If the US couldn't issue additional debt to fund its spending initiatives, would it even exist? We just don't believe government regulators will allow certain cryptocurrencies to thrive, especially if it threatens their sovereign currencies.We tend to look at this as a simple supply and demand equation. While Bitcoin has currently issued 18.7 million tokens, there is only a maximum of 21 million that can be created. That fixed supply is counter to some governments. For example, there are countries that have taken the printing of fiat currency too far. Zimbabwe is but one example of runaway inflation. Here's a picture of one of their 100 trillion bills. Yes, that's a 100 trillion. Do you want to be a trillionaire? Simply buy one on eBay for $8.99,by clicking here.Source: This is a picture of Zimbabere's currency, that I took on myiPhoneAs this Piper Sandler chart shows, Bitcoin now has a market capitalization of roughly $1 trillion. If we look at the top 10 digital assets by market capitalization, the vast majority of market share falls to just 2 currencies.* Source: This is a Piper Sandler slide/chartIt is estimated that Bitcoin is over 55% of all cryptocurrency market capitalization and Ethereum is roughly 11%. Cryptocurrencies like Tether, Binance Coin, Stellar, Cardano, Litecoin have a modest following and just 1% to 2% market share (all under $50 million in market cap).Digital currencies should be considered assets, as they can be represented digitally, dynamically transmitted, and stored safely in the cloud. However, digital assets and cryptocurrencies have a long way to go to become used in our globally interconnected economies.Rules & Regulations:In a perfect world, we think all assets should trade 365 days a year and 24 hours a day. In this hypothetical environment, assets should immediately process and settle and fees to transact should be modest. Why does the NYSE only officially operate from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm EST Monday through Friday (and not on holidays)? There are trades that occur pre-market and post-market hours, but liquidity and volumes are sparse. The simple answer is that this is the way it has always occurred and why should we change something that isn't broken.The traditional exchanges have always had a set period of time where they are \"open for business\", but this is changing. For example, the technology backbone of the CME Group (ticker CME) is called Globex. It essentially permits 24/7 trading to occur on its electronic platform for equities, interest rates, commodities, foreign exchange and other assets. After years of investing in international growth, roughly 1/5 th of all volumes come from outside of the US.In order to have access to Globex, there are rules one needs to adhere to, as exchanges are heavily regulated entities. Just like banks need to conduct AML (anti-money laundering) and KYC (know your customer) due diligence on its customer base, the exchanges need to follow strict guidelines enforced by their regulators.As of today, we believe there are over 50 distinct blockchain protocols which support more than 7,500 various digital assets. Unfortunately, the financial systems are not known as entities that are quick to adopt change and technology. The world has embraced the internet, as a revolutionary and transformational platform. However, financial systems are not comfortable seamlessly exchanging data, information and assets. There are numerous activities like cross border payments or peer-to-peer payments that are ideally suited for technological advancements, but rules and regulations exist to stymie growth.The goal of an open and transparent financial system is honorable, but not terribly realistic. In terms of managing one's assets, especially money, the process can be cumbersome.Volatility:If we accept cryptocurrency as a digital asset, we then want to better understand how value is determined, where it can be stored and how best to process and handle its exchange. With decentralized assets, the network allows participants to transact without intermediaries. Who sets the value and determines price?The most notable cryptocurrency is Bitcoin and it has a CAGR of over 150%, from 2013 to 2020. In 2017, it rose 1,318%, but then fell by (72.6%) in 2018. In 2020, it rose over 302% and it currently is up well over 50% this year. Since January of 2017, there have been 5 corrections of 50% of more in Bitcoin, so it can be wildly volatile.We are slowly getting comfortable with digital assets and cryptocurrencies as a \"store of value\" and believe they will become a viable asset in one's diversified portfolio. Each individual or entity needs to determine their own risk and reward framework, so cryptocurrency might be 10 basis points or 10% of one's portfolio.Opinions on Bitcoin are changing every day. Back in 2018, the CEO of Blackrock (Larry Fink) called Bitcoin a currency \"for money launderers.\" A year earlier, JP Morgan CEO, Jaime Dimon called Bitcoin a \"fraud\" and threated to fire any bank employee who dealt with the currency. Fast forward to today: Blackrock (in January 2021) enabled two of its mutual funds to purchase Bitcoin, and a JP Morgan analyst recently published that he thinks Bitcoin could rise to $146,000.Recently, large institutional interest has boosted the price of certain digital assets. High profile investors like John Tudor Jones (May 2020) and Stanley Druckenmiller have made sizeable purchases of various digital currencies. Other companies like Microstrategy (August 2020) and Tesla (Feb 2021) have made sizeable transactions for their firm's balance sheet.Stable Coins:A stable coin is simply a digital asset that is attempts to lower volatility by pegging itself to an actual fiat currency or physical asset (ex: gold). For example, Tether has a market capitalization of over $40 billion, is backed by US dollars and it's the largest cryptocurrency stable coin. One of the risks associated with stable coins is ensuring that the proper amount of fiat currency is held in reserve to match the amount of stable coins in circulation.In prior official commentary, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia - Elvira Nabiullina - stated that Russa was against any form of private currency, as it threatened financial sovereignty. Russia's Ministry of Internal Affairs also was considering seizing all digital currencies and claiming cryptocurrencies criminal activity. Now, in January 2021, the Bank of Russia began to test a ruble-based stable coin. While starting cautiously, the Russian Central Bank is exploring the possibility of issuing its own digital currency. There are numerous countries that are investigating the process of issuing CBDC's or Central Bank Digital Currencies. China has studied the process of issuing a digital yuan, the European Central Bank is looking into a digital Euro.Other governments and regulators have highlighted the risks of digital currencies. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority called crypto assets \"high risk, speculative investments\" where investors \"should be prepared to lose all their money.\" US Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve Chairwoman) Janet Yellen has warned on investing in digital currencies too. Just a week ago, India's Reserve Bank took a fairly bearish tone on digital currencies. Rumors are that India is looking to pass a law outlawing cryptocurrencies and making anyone trading or holding them punishable with sizeable fines. India's Finance minister is Nirmala Sitharaman and she said India's Cabinet will shortly issue a final ruling on the matter and that the governments ruling is \"under preparation and nearing completion\".Will additional countries look to make cryptocurrencies illegal? These type of comments act as a governor to adoption and change. Politicians and governments are worried about losing control of their economies. Statements like this are further evidence that governments will remain a headwind. We aren't going to put this in the realm of a new \"space race\", but the country that embraces this technology first might have an early advantage versus those that are afraid of change.Digital Currency Conclusion:This quick digital currency discussion was created to set the framework for an analysis of Coinbase (ticker COIN). Will digital currencies replace traditional payment systems? We do not believe it will, but continued adoption and traction in digital currencies is noticeable.Is Bitcoin poised to climb higher, or will it crash? We simply don't know. What we do know is that we prefer to own the medium where these \"assets\" trade. We would compare this to the Gold Rush of the mid-1800's. Back in 1849, owning Levi Strauss made a fortune selling picks, pans and shovels to '49ers looking for gold. Back then, some would say, \"There's gold in those mountains.\"Nowadays, there's a huge opportunity in the collection of data and information. We truly have no idea what the price of Bitcoin will do, except we know that it will be very volatile. As we know, volatility leads to trading, which should equate to profits for the exchanges. Speaking of exchanges, let's now discuss another exchange and upcoming FINTECH direct listing - COIN.Introduction to Coinbase (ticker COIN):The stated goal of COIN is \"to create an open financial system for the world.\" While this is altruistic, it seems to be fairly broad based goal. It is noble to strive to create a financial system that is transparent for all mankind. It might be more prudent to strive to provide an end-to-end infrastructure and technology platform for all types of cryptocurrencies.From our perspective, it might be judicious for COIN to focus its attention on providing value adding services for all types of digital currencies. If COIN becomes the dominant exchange where anyone can easily and securely send and receive Bitcoin, it will thrive. If COIN can create an efficient and accessible marketplace for the emerging digital assets community, it can be a massive success. There are hundreds of platforms that want to democratize access to the crypto-economy, but COIN (as the oldest and most recognizable brand) seems to have an early lead in this race.Coinbase:COIN was started in 2012 and it has built a trusted platform for accessing various crypto currencies. Using blockchain technology, COIN has simplified the user experience and reduced the complexity of purchasing, selling and holding digital currencies. In its early days, COIN was primarily just used for sending and receiving cryptocurrencies. Then, it became a trusted platform for those seeking to invest in various currencies. We liken this period as COIN's realization that it needed to become an \"exchange\" or intermediary between buyers and sellers. It has since launched cryptocurrency payments, distribution capabilities, storage, borrowing and lending services.As this chart from COIN shows, there are over 45 different cryptocurrencies investors can purchase and another 90 that can be stored at COIN.* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1However, two primary digital currencies dominate COIN's total trading volumes. In 2020, Bitcoin represented 41% of COIN's trading volumes and 15% came from Ethereum. While this 56% is a decline from 2019 levels (72% of the total mix), we envision both will remain the primary digital currencies traded on COIN.Revenue:Over the last several years, COIN has materially grown its revenue. In 2019, revenue $533 million and it impressively grew to $1.3 billion last year. As we show in our pie chart, in 2020, COIN's $1.28 billion of revenue grew 130% year-over-year and was a mix of 86% Transactional, 3% Subscription & Services and 11% \"Other\".On April 6th, COIN reported 1st quarter 2021 results and the metrics were eye popping. Last quarter, COIN generated $1.8 billion in revenue, which exceeded the prior two years combined.In 2020, 86% of COIN's total revenue wasTransactionalin nature. This means revenue was derived from sending, receiving, investing and spending cryptocurrencies. When it comes to Transactional revenue, we like to look at the fee as a percentage of total volume traded.COIN provided this diagram and it shows exactly what products are inside of each of its revenue classifications. The remaining 15% of total revenue came fromSubscription & Services,which COIN classifies as paying, distributing, storage, and from borrowing and lending cryptocurrencies.* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1Storing earns custodial fee revenue, which we will dissect in a couple of pages. Staking revenue comes from validation on a proof-of-stake blockchain transaction. License revenue is generated from users of its Analytics services. Lastly, COIN can earn campaign revenue or distribution fees when its constructs educational materials for issuers. For cryptocurrency issuers, COIN earns revenue for helping the platform engage with its users, in the form of educational videos or tasks, when cryptocurrencies are attempting to widen their distribution, marketing and acceptance. While these ancillary services are nice, the real opportunity is trading.Customer Type:In its S-1 regulatory filing, COIN showed its product portfolio, separated from retail users, institutions and other ecosystem partners. One has to understand that different clients are paying different rates. Over the last 8 quarters, this revenue rate has averaged 0.61%, with a high of 0.80% in the 1st quarter of 2019 and a low of 0.50% in the 4th quarter of 2020.Looking at the last 8 quarters, we can clearly see that both retail and institutional trading volumes have exploded higher. It is interesting to see that Retail was bigger at $45 billion in the 1 st quarter of 2018 than it was at the end of last year at $32 billion. Also, one can see that Institutional trading volumes have gone from $11 billion in the 1 st quarter of 2018 and now are over $57 billion.* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1COIN has different fees depending on whether or not the client is retail or institutional, as well as whether or not the client uses Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, which we will discuss this later on, in our pricing section.Trading volumes:In terms of exchanges, it all comes down to volumes. Crypto exchange volumes have soared, because of strong interest from both retail and institutional clients. This type of growth will not continue, but volatility tends to drive overall volumes.Looking at this Compass table, one can clearly see that volumes noticeably increased in 2018, following the rise of Bitcoin in December of 2017. What happened in late 2017 that helped drive future trading volumes? Well, CBOE and CME both launched Bitcoin future contracts that month.* Source: This is a slide/chart from CompassSo far in 2021, COIN has experienced 298% growth in ADV (average daily volumes). What did Bitcoin increase last year? Just over 300%. There's clearly a very high correlation between Bitcoin's recent price and COIN's future ADV.One of our favorites aspects of investing in the exchanges is the ability to simply model the businesses in Excel. The large, publicly-traded exchanges provide wonderful transparency for investors, by posting daily volumes. We liken this to Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley providing real-time insights into their prop desk trading results. You shouldn't hold your breath for that level of transparency, right?Bitcoin, Bitcoin and Bitcoin:In the real estate business, the common phrase is that the 3 most important items are \"location, location and location.\" For digital currency exchanges, we believe the 3 most important products are \"Bitcoin, Bitcoin and more Bitcoin.\"On COIN's platform, the volumes tend to be concentrated in a few different currencies. In 2019, BTC or Bitcoin was 58% of COIN's trading volumes, but that fell to 41% in 2020. ETH or Ethereum was 14% in 2019 and that grew slightly last year to 15% of COIN's total. The biggest category jump came from \"other\", which was 18% in 2019 and grew to 44% last year.Having multiple products to transact in is obviously key, but COIN is cryptocurrency dependent. Yes, tokens like Dogecoin might come in and out of favor, but COIN is dependent upon higher Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.A great aspect to owning CME is their transparency. Not only does CME provide daily ADV, but they provide details on open interest. We like to follow open interest, as it is a leading indicator of future volumes. Also, CME provides details on large open interest holders (called LOIH's) or those owners of a minimum of $7.5 million of Bitcoin futures. Over the last couple of months, CME has hit all-time highs in volumes in Bitcoin futures trading. This year, Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME have averaged 13,800 contracts per day, up 42% year-over-year.Like CME, COIN has invested heavily in its technology to give its customers access to a deep pool of cryptocurrency liquidity. Like we just described, this liquidity can act as a virtuous cycle. Volumes beget more volumes and leading more customers onto the platform.Pricing:We focus on the trading volume of an exchange, but also try to model how revenues are generated from this volume. Each trade does not generate the same level of revenue, as different traders tend to pay different prices.In derivative exchange land, we often look at commission prices as RPC or rate per contract. For example, CME charges $0.478 a contract to trade interest rates, $0.545 to trade equities, $0.764 to trade foreign currency, $1.397 to trade metals, $1.336 to trade agricultural commodities and $1.124 to trade energy. Within each product, prices can vary. For example, WTI crude is a different trading price versus natural gas contracts. While CME is trying to get more retail customers into trading futures and options, the vast majority of its volumes are from institutions.At COIN, there are different fees for different clients. COIN has two main fee structures, one called Coinbase Pro and the other called Coinbase Prime. Here's a quick look at the pricing tiers, as discussed in the S-1 filing, based upon whether or not a client is taking or providing liquidity (called taker fee and maker fee).* Source: This is a slide/chart from CompassTransaction revenue, as a percentage of total volumes traded, has averaged 0.61% over the last 8 quarters. Over these 2 years, retail client transactional revenue has increased from 1.27% up to 1.47%. For institutional clients, revenues as a percentage of volumes traded has fallen from 0.07% down to 0.05%. Clearly, retail customers pay significantly more than institutional clients to trade.Also, unlike transacting in a stock, COIN calls its transaction based revenue \"staking\" revenue. This is earned from transaction validation on a proof-of-stake blockchain, when COIN's nodes successfully creates or validates a certain block. This revenue is recognized when the rewards are available for transfer and at the point when the block creator or validation is complete. The metrics that determine the staking revenue are driven by quantity, price and rewards rate.Customers:The strengths of COIN's platform seem to be its vast and extensive network of contacts. COIN is leveraging its trusted brand to attract those that want access to transact or store cryptocurrencies.COIN's growth strategy is based upon driving more customers onto its platform and becoming the de-facto platform for cryptocurrency. Just like the online brokers did in the 1990's, the key to growth was adding new accounts and clients to the platform.In this COIN chart, one can see the exceptional growth in verified users or those that have \"demonstrated an interest\" in COIN's platform. In addition to these users, there are another 7,000 institutional customers, across roughly 100 countries.* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1These verified users have registered for an account and confirmed either their email address or a phone number. In our model, we are not terribly interested in tracking verified users as a key metric. While it is nice to know who interested in cryptocurrencies, it is much more important to understand who is willing to transact.As you can see in this Compass Point chart, COIN has 2.8 million MTU or monthly transacting users. In order to be considered a customer needs to have logged in and transacted one time, over a 28-day rolling period.* Source: This is a slide/chart from CompassIt is interesting to see that there were 2.7 million MTU's in the 1 st quarter of 2018 and 2.8 million MTU's at the end of last year. Over those 2 years, MTU's dramatically declined and then lifted. As of today, COIN has roughly 3 million MTUs, which was up +180% year-over-year, but we like to think of it as only 7% of its verified total accounts.This reminds us of the online brokerage business, back in the 1990's and 2000's. For years, the primary goal of marketing executives at the online brokers was to generate more and more accounts. The theory was that with new accounts, clients would eventually look to consolidate their relationships with one or possibly two firms. Once an account was opened, the goal was to increase wallet share from that satisfied customer.For online brokerages, driving customers typically comes from TV advertising. One cannot watch CNBC or Bloomberg or Fox Business without seeing advertisements for Schwab, TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Fidelity or Interactive Brokers. Robinhood was very successful in opening up investment accounts for the emerging Gen-Z demographic, but its well-publicized issues in late January (regarding prohibiting \"meme stocks\" purchases) might impact its torrid account growth.How does COIN plan on increasing its exposure and customer base? Our guess is that it will look to increase its marketing spend. The ROI or return on investment of TV marketing is somewhat opaque. We anticipate COIN learning from its foray into marketing and advertising, with some successes, as well as some failures.The best avenue to increase accounts and customers is to offer a product that cannot be easily replicated. COIN can continue its account growth by launching new and innovative products, as well as offering access to new cryptocurrencies.While BTC or Bitcoin is the dominant cryptocurrency today, maybe there will be a new and exciting cryptocurrency in vogue tomorrow. Over the last few months, Dogecoin has garnered significant attention and media coverage. While we shake our head and do not understand the fascination with this cryptocurrency, the goal for COIN is to attract and become the go to platform for those that wish to transact. COIN needs to expand its support of all digitally native cryptocurrencies and help to tokenize new assets.Storage:While the vast majority of COIN's revenue is trading based, COIN does earns subscription and service revenue when customers choose to safely store their cryptocurrencies on its platform.COIN is one of the most trusted exchanges in the crypto space and operate as a \"qualified custodian\". This means that they have a separate company, called Coinbase Custody, which operates as a standalone, independently-capitalized business. Under New York State Banking Law, Coinbase Custody is considered a fiduciary. All digital assets are segregated and held in a trust. COIN has never suffered a hack that led to loss of funds and cannot afford to ever have that breached.As you can see in this COIN asset chart shows, there has been excellent growth on the platform. At the end of 2020, COIN had $90.3 billion in assets on its platform, which was up +432% year-over-year.* Source: This is a slide/chart from COIN's S-1Of these assets, 70% was from Bitcoin and another 13% were Ethereum. Clearly, those two currencies represent the bulk of COIN's platform assets.Wallets:The leather wallet in your pocket holds a combination of cash and credit/debit cards. However, cryptocurrencies and tokens need to be kept in a crypto wallet. \"Hot wallets\" are connected to the internet and are considered much less secure, while \"cold wallets\" are kept offline. Most cryptocurrency custodians employ \"cold\" storage to safely hold a client's digital assets.Acting as a cold cryptocurrency custodian (say that 3x fast), COIN derives fee revenue based on a percentage of the daily value of customer accounts. The assets under custody are a function of quantity, price and type of cryptocurrency asset.Custody:In addition to hot versus cold wallets, there are two primary ways to store your Bitcoin. The first is called self-custody. This is when an individual or entity has complete control of their Bitcoin. This entails maintaining and controlling your own private key. When it comes to Bitcoin storage, there is a popular self-custody mantra that says, \"not your keys, not your coins\". This implies that if you do not control the private key for your Bitcoin, it is not truly your Bitcoin.The second way to store your Bitcoin is to outsource it to a trusted custodian, like Kraken, Coinbase, Anchorage or others. In this case, the custodian stores your Bitcoin for you and they have control over its private key. Kraken is security focused and has an time-tested private key management practice. In its 10-years of existence, it has never been hacked.Whether one decides to self-custody or use an outsourced custody provider for storing your Bitcoin, two critical issues must be discussed. The first is trust. Do you trust the custodial firm that holds your Bitcoin? If one self-custodies, they bear the risk of lost private keys, break-ins or natural disasters. On the other hand, self-custody ensures you control your own Bitcoin. The obvious downside of self-custody is that one can lose all of your Bitcoin, if it is not stored properly.Do you trust the bank that holds your checking account or brokerage firm that holds your stocks? US financial institutions are some of the most highly regulated companies in the world and most have proven themselves to be good custodians of our assets. Maybe we can exclude Lehman Brothers and AIG from that statement, but it is fair statement for the other 10,000+ financial institutions in the US.Does trusting a firm called Kraken, with millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin, sound like a sound idea? Some might prefer to custody with a firm like Bank of New York, which announced in March of 2021, that it intends to enter the Bitcoin custody business. However, does Bank of New York have the technological expertise and security protocols of newer entrants like Kraken? With a random name like Manole Capital, we clearly don't place too much emphasis on one's name. We do however appreciate 3 rd party, independent industry rankings. Kraken has been voted the #1 most secure cryptocurrency exchange by ICO Ratings.The second key issue to consider is protection and safety. Cryptocurrency custodians and exchanges are a prime target for hackers. There are hundreds and potentially thousands of thieves looking to steal your Bitcoin private key. PayPal and Robinhood recently sent warnings instructing their clients to install two factor authentication onto their digital wallets / account. Also, governments can force companies to freeze funds, if they perceive illegal activity or fraudulent behavior.Trusting someone else to store and manage your Bitcoin is a challenging decision. There have been a few custody firms to have disastrous results (i.e. Mt. Gox), but there are also extremely competent businesses that can trusted to hold your cryptocurrencies. For us, we prefer an expert store our assets, as opposed to keeping it under the proverbial mattress.Characteristics:As we mentioned earlier, there are certainideal characteristicswe look for in our investments. COIN has a strong brand name and dominates its cryptocurrency niche. Its platform is scalable and by leveraging certain blockchain advancements, COIN can provide a safe and secure environment for its customers.We often look for our companies to have dominant market shares, high barriers to entry and what Warren Buffett calls a \"moat around the franchise\". Regardless of industry, we always focus on an investment's market share. In terms of COIN's cryptocurrency market share, it has risen from 4.5% in 2018 to 8.3% in 2019 up to 11.0% in 2020.For exchanges, there is typically 1 or 2 firms that dominate the trading of a specific asset. These exchanges have the best liquidity and the tightest bid/ask spreads. For example, the CME dominates US interest rate trading, as well as WTI crude trading. Intercontinental Exchange dominates the Brent crude marketplace. Once an exchange begins to control trading for a certain asset, it is very difficult for a competitor to steal market share. Some try to lower trading pricing and commissions, but this usually is only temporary. Investors are always seeking best execution and will usually return to the marketplace with the most liquidity and tightest bid/ask spreads. From an exchange standpoint, this is definition of dominant market share, competitive advantage or possessing a moat around your franchise.Ideally, COIN is looking to become the one-stop shop for those wishing to buy, sell and/or store cryptocurrency. COIN has many of the desirable characteristics we look for in an investment, but it does have risks.Risk #1: BitcoinFor a business like COIN, there are literally dozens of risks. For starters, cryptocurrencies are volatile and we anticipate COIN's stock will be highly correlated to the price of BTC, Bitcoin and other important cryptocurrencies.As we have mentioned, the underlying price of these cryptocurrencies helps to determine COIN's revenue and profits. Possibly the biggest risk for owning COIN stock will be its reliance and dependency on rising Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.Risk #2: CompetitionOn the retail front, COIN has numerous competitors. For example, both Square's Cash App (36 million users) and PayPal (375 million accounts) are offering mobile-based wallets, primarily to retail clients. Customers can purchase various cryptocurrencies on both Square and PayPal and store them for free.Over time, we expect both of these firms to begin to allow wallet holders to transact in whatever currency he/she wishes. For example, a customer can use their Square Cash App wallet to transact at over 3 million Square merchant acquiring locations. This mobile wallet will permit credit or debit transactions, but might also permit the user to utilize their Bitcoin balance. There are numerous issues that still need to be resolved on this front, but this is what we have been calling \"closing-the-loop\".Risk #3: RegulationsExchanges are highly regulated entities and they must learn to engage with their regulators for the benefit of all market participants. COIN is subject to a regulated environment, but the rules and landscape are dynamic. Unlike US financials, with a known regulator, the laws and rules cryptocurrencies are subject to are constantly changing. As COIN moves more of its business to international markets, it will have additional governmental issues to deal with.The new SEC Chairman is Gary Gensler. Gensler was the head of the CFTC from May 2009 to January 2014 and was the primary regulator for the derivative exchanges. In his tenure at the CFTC, Gensler attempted to write rules and regulations for the swap markets, as suggested in the Dodd Frank Act of 2010 (following the Financial Crisis). Now that Gensler is at the SEC, one of his first challenges is what to do about regulating and providing oversight on Bitcoin and other digital currencies. He is not new to digital currencies, as he was a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management after his stint at the CFTC. He primarily taught about blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies.As of today, there are only a few crypto funds available to investors. Grayscale has over $38 billion in assets and is the sponsor of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC), which is provides Bitcoin exposure for qualified investors. GBT investors have a $25,000 minimum investment and currently pay a 2.5% management fee.Many firms (Skybridge Capital, Valkyrie Digital, Fidelity Investments, VanEck, WisdomTree, etc) have announced their intention to offer Bitcoin ETF's. attempted to get the SEC to approve Bitcoin ETF's. As of now, the SEC has not approved any of these filings, but it will ultimately have to make a decision on the subject. Earlier SEC rejections were based upon problems with volatility, transparency, market surveillance and market and price manipulation. We expect a positive Bitcoin ETF to be approved by the SEC in 2021.In addition to SEC regulation, we anticipate the Federal Reserve to explore the subject too. Chairman Jay Powell, in official Congressional testimony, has officially stated that the Fed is looking into the idea of a \"fully digital dollar\". This type of \"Fed coin\" would likely need Congressional and White House approval and it is very much in the early innings of its examination. Chairman Powell is still dealing with the ramifications of a global pandemic and a soft US economy, so a CBDC might not be his first or even second priority right now.Risk #4: SecurityAs with any exchange, security and safety is paramount. We anticipate that COIN will be subject to thousands of cybersecurity attacks. Hackers, criminals and even foreign countries might find it worthwhile to breach COIN's platform. COIN's valuation is dependent upon it keeping its first-mover advantage and its reputation as a dominant cryptocurrency custodian. Security, for customers and partners, cannot be underestimated and COIN will have a very large target on its back.Scale & EBITDA Margins:For us, we always like to model in operating or EBITDA margins, as well as free cash flow for our exchanges. In 2020, EBITDA margins for the largest exchanges were impressive. Here is a table of the dominant four exchanges and their EBITDA margins last year, as compared to COIN. Looking at the 2020 EBITDA margins of its publicly-traded exchange peers, provides interesting insights. Last year, CBOE posted 68% EBITDA margins and CME and ICE each posted margins in the 62% to 63% range. Despite trailing their competitors, Nasdaq had impressive EBITDA margins of 55%, that would be the envy of most companies. One key takeaway is that all of the exchanges are generating impressive margins with excellent leverage and scale opportunities.Exchanges: CBOE CME ICE NDAQ vs COIN2020 EBITDA Margins 68% 62% 63% 55% 41%These exchanges have spent billions of dollars building out a scalable platform, that has enormous operating leverage. Each and every transaction that occurs is extremely high incremental margins. Most do not provide guidance on future or forward revenue, but they do have decent insight into expenses. The CME typically will provide forward expense guidance in the 2% to 5% range each year. Expenses don't dramatically increase each and every year, but do modestly rise.How does COIN compare? Well, COIN is still constructing its exchange and heavily investing in its infrastructure. Last year, technology and development expenses were $271.7 million or 21% of COIN's total revenue. In 2019, this expense line item was 35% of revenue.In 2020, COIN's expenses grew 50% year-over-year to $868.5 million. At this early stage of its lifecycle, we are pleasantly surprised to see that COIN is generating positive operating leverage (expense growth less than revenue growth).As you can see in this Compass Point chart, over the last 8 quarters, COIN's Adjusted EBITDA margins have steadily improved. Are they peaking or at an all-time high? No, but the best part about COIN's current margin trajectory is where we see it going.* Source: This is a slide/chart from CompassIn its S-1, Brian Armstrong (COIN's CEO) stated a focus on operating profits, as it tries to manage its expense growth. He said, \"We may earn a profit when revenues are high, and we may lose money when revenues are low.\" He then went on to state that \"our goal is to roughly operate the company at break even, smoothed out over time.\"This has proven to be true, when one considers that COIN generated $533 million in revenue in 2019, but lost $30m of profit that year. Then, in 2020, COIN produced $527 million of EBITDA on $1.2 billion of revenue. Clearly, the exchanges can generate very impressive profit margins, at scale.The real benefit for the exchanges comes when volatility spikes and volumes soar. As this happens, assuming the exchanges properly manages this rising volatility, profitability climbs. As more and more volumes transact on a platform, free cash flow (and margins) is very attractive. Operating margins at its other publicly-traded exchanges have been high for years and do not fluctuate significantly from year-to-year. As revenues surprise to the upside, because volatility spikes, these exchanges typically reward their shareholders with buybacks and special dividends. As much more mature businesses, these exchanges tend to allow this leverage upside to fall to the bottom line. We anticipate that COIN will choose to re-invest any revenue upside towards marketing, growing its customer base, improving its platform, and building up its infrastructure.Valuation:In their 1st quarter 2021 release, management provided a low-to-mid-to-high range for a number of key metrics. In terms of MTU's, COIN management provided low guidance of 4.0 million and high guidance of 7.0 million. In 2019, the net revenue per MTU was $37 and it increased to $49 last year. Over the last 8 quarters, the net revenue per MTU range has grown from $26 in the 1 st quarter of 2019 up to $59 in the last quarter of 2020.In our modeling and analysis, we will stick with management guidance, which ranges from $35 million to $45 million in net revenue per MTU. This implies revenue for the final three quarters of the year could be in the $3.48 billion on the low side and up to $4.64 billion on the high side. If we simply average these low and high ranges, 2021 revenue would be $4.1 billion. Considering COIN did $1.8 billion in revenue in the 1 st quarter alone, it is probably safe to assume that 2021 revenue will approach $4 billion this year. Our model is fairly detailed, but for this exercise, we will use a nice round $4.0 billion in 2021 revenue. Then, for 2022, we will assume 15% growth, to $4.6 billion. This does not seem like we are being aggressive. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised if COIN generates this level of revenue a full year earlier.Without making an assumption on future volume growth, we need to estimate profit margins for COIN. Over the next decade, we would expect COIN to post EBITDA margins into the mid-50's%. Over the next one to two years, we would like COIN to annually increase margins by 200 basis points. This should be do-able, even with COIN making significant investments in their operational technology and platform.Stock Trading vs Fundamentals:It can be challenging to sometimes separate the volatility of a stock from its underlying fundamentals. For example, the primary exchange to trade interest rates is the CME. When it comes to trading Brent crude, most traders prefer ICE (although WTI is primarily traded on CME). While both of these exchanges trade hundreds of other products and assets, those two products (interest rates and Brent crude) tend to materially impact the exchange stock price.When it comes to COIN, we anticipate the stock will trade very closely to the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. If both digital currencies continue to rise, COIN's stock will be a solid success. If Bitcoin falls by (80%), like it did in 2019, COIN's stock will dramatically fall. In a world with massive Bitcoin volatility, COIN's underlying fundamentals should be good. In theory, COIN's stock should correlate and reflect the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, not just their upward trajectory. However, we fully anticipate COIN's stock to trade in-line with the success or failure of Bitcoin.Today's reality is that certain market participants are not long-term investors. Many unfortunately consider stocks as pieces of paper, as short-term trading instruments. If Bitcoin were to struggle and decline in value, that volatility and environment would be excellent for COIN. In fact, that might be a great time to \"dip one's toe\" into a position. However, the Reddit and Wall Street Bets community is more likely to consider short-term trading momentum than bottoms up, underlying fundamentals.As we discussed earlier, COIN generated an impressive 2020 operating margin of 32%, compared to a (9%) in 2019. While some companies can post steady and smooth operating margins, COIN's will be much lumpier, at least until it is less Bitcoin becomes less volatile. Also, COIN has $188 million of cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet, comprised mainly of $130 million of Bitcoin and $24 million of Ether. There will be opportunities to purchase COIN, when short-term investors sell. This will likely occur as COIN ramps up its expenses or when Bitcoin falls.Price Target:Over the next month or so, we anticipate most sell-side analysts will publish targets on COIN. Unfortunately, most will use revenue multiples to determine their price targets. Manole Capital only owns companies that generate earnings and free cash flow, so we are loathe to utilize revenue multiples for price targets. We find that companies that use revenue multiples to justify a valuation are often incapable of generating important free cash flow. We are fine with companies investing in their future to ensure growth, but we cannot invest in companies that aren't concerned with free cash flow. For us, using the crutch of a revenue multiples isn't something we are comfortable doing.Fortunately, for this analysis of COIN, the company generates plenty of profit and free cash flow. We conservatively model COIN's revenue next year at $4.6 billion. Also, we believe it can add a point or two to EBITDA margins, into the mid-40% range. That would be 2021 EBITDA of $2.1 billion or $11.89 per share. We don't want to sound like a \"wise old sage\", but in the \"olden days\", investors could utilize reasonable EV (enterprise value) to EBITDA multiples in the 10x to 15x range. Maybe, if a company was experiencing fantastic growth and was getting acquired, you might see an EBITDA multiple approach 20x. Nasdaq, ICE and CBOE all have trailing EV to EBITDA multiples in the mid-to-high teens. In order to be remotely close to where COIN will trade this week, we would have to use a MarketAxess (MKTX) or Tradeweb (TW) lofty TTM EV to EBITDA multiples of roughly 45x. We just don't believe EV to EBITDA is the proper valuation metric to currently use. Should we use another cryptocurrency company like Silvergate (SI) and estimate a valuation using their EV to EBITDA multiple? At 108x trailing EBITDA, that would be a waste of time.To arrive at a realistic COIN price target, let's just model earnings and use a premium forward P/E multiple. If we apply a tax rate of 25% (not assuming any tax loss carryovers), we can estimate an EPS in 2021 of $8.50.Using that $8.50 per share in EPS, we then want to apply an exchange-like multiple, adding in a premium for COIN due to its exceptional growth. The average publicly-traded exchange trades at a forward P/E multiple of 20x. The table below provides some different targets, based upon the premium P/E one believes COIN deserves.Forward P/E Multiple 25x 30x 40x 45x 50xPremium to Peers 20% 50% 100%COIN Target $213 $255 $340 $381 $426On Wednesday, initial projections are looking for COIN to trade towards $65 billion, which implies $350 per share. We fully anticipate COIN rocketing past $400 and potentially closing the day in the $500 per share range. This would imply a market capitalization of COIN of $93 billion, which is approaching the $100 billion level that have been rumored to have occurred on some private exchanges.Conclusion:We expect COIN's direct listing on April 14th to be \"hot\".In a typical IPO, companies raise capital and provide exclusive, early access to large institutions. With wire houses placing shares into large institutions and asset managers first, retail investors often get shut out. Retail platforms like Schwab, Ameritrade, Robinhood, Fidelity typically cannot access IPOs for their customers.Since COIN has over $1 billion of cash on its balance sheet and does not need capital, it has decided to do a direct listing. The advantage of a direct listing is that it will enable retail investors to purchase COIN at the same time as larger institutions. Once COIN begins to trade freely on the Nasdaq exchange, both retail and institutional traders can participate. With 186 million shares outstanding, the market will ultimately determine what share price COIN trades at. We expect a flood of market orders, creating an interesting first day of trading.Is the lofty valuation we just laid out fair? Probably not, but that's what the market will determine. Is this a realistic scenario? Are our forecasts too conservative? Should you be an aggressive buyer? We think our estimates are fair, but COIN will likely immediately trade towards an aggressive multiple.If you don't want to pay that kind of forward multiple for COIN, there are other alternative. Maybe you should consider an investment in some of the other (and less expensive) exchanges, like Nasdaq or CBOE? These companies do not have the same growth prospects as COIN, but they do come with a much smaller price tag.We believe that COIN is a safe, trusted and easy-to-use platform for trading digital currencies. Some investors believe that they have \"missed out\" on the meteoric rise of Bitcoin, so they might chase a position in COIN. Others will look at COIN as a long-term opportunity to own the dominant digital currency exchange.In our opinion, owners should be willing to pay a premium for COIN shares, but they should also be prepared for significant volatility and competition. Only you know your specific risk/reward tolerances. Only time will tell the answers to some of these questions, but we'll get a good idea on Wednesday, once COIN trading begins.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347097871,"gmtCreate":1618447995193,"gmtModify":1704710947699,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347097871","repostId":"1104945242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347097948,"gmtCreate":1618447986184,"gmtModify":1704710947199,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Considering&nbsp;","listText":"Considering&nbsp;","text":"Considering","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347097948","repostId":"1104945242","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104945242","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618444419,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104945242?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 07:53","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"After Coinbase’s blockbuster debut, what investors say it means for cryptocurrency markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104945242","media":"CNBC","summary":"It was a big day for the crypto space.\nCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase opened at $381 a share,up 52","content":"<div>\n<p>It was a big day for the crypto space.\nCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase opened at $381 a share,up 52% from its reference price. The stock closed its first day of trading at $328.\nHere’s what investors...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbases-debut-investors-on-what-it-means-for-cryptocurrency-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After Coinbase’s blockbuster debut, what investors say it means for cryptocurrency markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter Coinbase’s blockbuster debut, what investors say it means for cryptocurrency markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 07:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbases-debut-investors-on-what-it-means-for-cryptocurrency-markets.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It was a big day for the crypto space.\nCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase opened at $381 a share,up 52% from its reference price. The stock closed its first day of trading at $328.\nHere’s what investors...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbases-debut-investors-on-what-it-means-for-cryptocurrency-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/coinbases-debut-investors-on-what-it-means-for-cryptocurrency-markets.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1104945242","content_text":"It was a big day for the crypto space.\nCryptocurrency exchange Coinbase opened at $381 a share,up 52% from its reference price. The stock closed its first day of trading at $328.\nHere’s what investors are saying about the company and the stock now.\nSarah Kunst, managing director of Cleo Capital, explains the significance of the debut.\n“The thing that is not debatable is that this is a huge success story for crypto overall, and what we’re seeing here is the first major IPO, the first IPO ever really, for a crypto company, for a crypto exchange in the U.S. And I think that no matter what happens with their stock price minute to minute or over the next few quarters, this milestone is the first of many and crypto companies are here to stay even in the public markets.”\nMichael Bucella, partner at BlockTower Capital, mentions one tailwind boosting Coinbase.\n“There is enormous operating leverage within Coinbase. If you think about their fee revenue model, it’s primarily crypto-driven, so fees are collected in crypto. So you had an acceleration increase in fees, plus the acceleration in price gives you this almost levered beta to this space.”\nEmily Parker, TV co-anchor at CoinDesk, highlights some challenges Coinbase could face.\n“It’s hugely important for the crypto industry, and that’s why this listing is so important, because Coinbase in many ways is seen as a gateway to the mainstream world. Coinbase is relatively easy to use, it’s trusted, so it’s for new investors who want to get into the crypto market. But ... that could actually be a risk to Coinbase over the long term because Coinbase is going to start seeing more competition from banks. If there is an ETF, will that pose a risk to Coinbase? If a bank allows you to start buying crypto out of your checking account, will people still use Coinbase? So interestingly as crypto gets more and more mainstream, Coinbase will have to maintain that first-mover advantage.”\nBobby Cho, partner at CMS Holdings, sees opportunity ahead for Coinbase.\n“There’s this opportunity for Coinbase to access all different types of traditional products. Two years ago, I believe, they bought Keystone, a broker dealer, so that’s in the works, and there are other ways that they haven’t even tapped into in terms of monetizing how current exchanges ... are currently making money, such as market data. At this point, market data is free, but at some point they’re going to start to latch on to some of those revenue streams, and I just look at all of that as a growth opportunity here.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347095224,"gmtCreate":1618447908168,"gmtModify":1704710944743,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To hold for long term?","listText":"To hold for long term?","text":"To hold for long term?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347095224","repostId":"1181372898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181372898","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618501265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181372898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-15 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181372898","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Palantir fell nearlr 3%&nbsp;in Thursday&nbsp;morning  trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48094c753cf8466f8f6f524a7349fba1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"395\"></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?</li><li>The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.</li><li>We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534db15a589a6170b395a97ae7d469e8\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p>Palantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.</p><p><b>Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I Like</b></p><p>In general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.</p><p>The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:</p><p><b>1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decades</b></p><p>Big data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.</p><p><b>2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership position</b></p><p>Many hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.</p><p><b>3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristics</b></p><p>Big data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins&nbsp;are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.</p><p>The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.</p><p>Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5c147cb9babf998cfd35649f4cad22\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Clearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).</p><p><b>Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?</b></p><p>Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.</p><p>However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.</p><p>Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7db46186418a049678d1ecf17ff30\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Whereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c82732cfdc04638279f1d9e77e9c1e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Not too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.</p><p>When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.</p><p>A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has&nbsp;easily beaten estimates&nbsp;in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.</p><p><b>How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower Price</b></p><p>For those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.</p><p>Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.</p><p><b>Takeaway</b></p><p>At first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.</p><p>Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Actually Overvalued?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Actually Overvalued?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-15 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4419080-is-palantir-actually-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1181372898","content_text":"(April 15) Palantir fell nearlr 3% in Thursday morning  trading.SummaryPalantir looks very expensive at first sight. But could that be justified?The company looks a lot stronger than many other hyped-up growth stocks when it comes to margins, market positioning, etc.We showcase ways to enter a position in Palantir at a more attractive price.Photo by wildpixel/iStock via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisPalantir (PLTR), at 150 times this year's expected earnings, looks very expensive. But when we take a closer look, the price might be justified, as Palantir has a compelling ultra-long-term growth outlook due to a strong position in an absolute growth market. Despite a seemingly very high valuation, Palantir's shares could be a solid long-term investment.Palantir Is Not A Typical Stock I LikeIn general, I am mostly focused on dividend-paying stocks that trade at reasonable or cheap valuations, with some \"growth at a reasonable price\" (GARP) added in. Stocks trading at 100 times forward earnings, or even higher than that, are not at all typical of what I like to write about, and what I personally invest in. I have been quite critical of many stocks that trade at what I believe are too-high valuations. Nevertheless, I see Palantir as a stock that has a lot of potential in the long run, and that seems worthy of consideration, despite a seemingly very high valuation.The reasoning for why I like Palantir, despite it trading at a quite high valuation, rests on three main pillars:1. Palantir is active in an absolute growth market that will grow for decadesBig data, data analysis, and artificial intelligence are not short-term trends that will play out in a couple of years, but rather megatrends that will most likely become ever more important. 20 years from now, 30 years from now, and likely even farther in the future, big data and artificial intelligence will still be growth markets.2. Palantir has a very clear industry leadership positionMany hyped-up growth companies are active in a highly fought-over market, oftentimes there is no clear, large moat for first-movers and current market leaders. I believe that in Palantir's case, that is not true. The company has developed a wide range of products and offerings for customers that are very unique, and where competition is not looking like a major concern. On top of that, Palantir has established very strong connections with government agencies and the military, which will be hard to replicate for eventual competitors. This does, I believe, result in a high likelihood that Palantir will not only be the leading player in the near term, but that it will retain this position for a long time. I personally am not so sure about the future leadership position of other current hyped-up leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) in EVs, Beyond Meat (BYND) in plant-based meat alternatives, etc.3. The industry Palantir is active in has great characteristicsBig data and artificial intelligence are not only absolute growth markets, they also, as part of the software/service tech industry, offer a range of highly compelling characteristics. First, the software industry has, on average, very high gross and operating margins. This is, at least partially, the result of relatively low proportional costs, as there is no expensive manufacturing infrastructure needed.High gross margins are one of the common traits shared by companies that are able to deliver strong long-term share price gains.The software industry is also capital extensive, which means that free cash flows, on average, are relatively high. There is no need to build out a lot of expensive infrastructure such as manufacturing plants, which translates into attractive free cash generation that can be used for tuck-in acquisitions, debt reduction, etc.Third, the software industry overall is not cyclical. As software is an essential part of our daily lives and of doing business, customers don't scale back their use of software during a recession or any other type of crisis. In Palantir's case, where government agencies are a major customer, resilience is even stronger. Compared to many other growth industries, including EVs, renewable energy, etc. these very attractive traits are very pronounced for software companies, including Palantir. As an example of the attractiveness of Palantir's business mode, let's look at its gross margins versus those of other hyped growth stocks:Data by YChartsClearly, Palantir is in a class of its own compared to Tesla, Beyond Meat, Peloton (PTON), or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (as a stand-in for most solar and renewable stocks).Palantir's Valuation - How High Is It?Looking at current earnings per share estimates for this year, which stand at $0.16, Palantir is trading for around 150 times this year's earnings. That is, of course, an extremely high valuation in absolute terms.However, it should be considered that Palantir is just beginning to generate positive net profits. Shortly after breaking even, net profits can't be expected to be very high yet. But due to two key reasons, Palantir's earnings should grow meaningfully in coming years. First, the nature of the market the company is active in will allow for strong revenue growth going forward. On top of that, thanks to the fact that Palantir generates very high gross margins, each additional dollar of revenue that the company generates in the future should help a lot in improving profitability. When a company like Palantir adds $1 billion in additional sales, that will do a lot more for its bottom line compared to most other companies, that won't see profits grow as much due to lower margins.Analysts are thus, not surprisingly, forecasting strong earnings per share growth over the next two years:Data by YChartsWhereas Palantir trades for around 150 times this year's earnings, the stock trades for 118 times 2022's earnings, and for 97 times 2023's earnings. Those aren't low valuations at all, but it can make sense to look at how companies such as Netflix (NFLX) or Amazon (AMZN) were valued in their younger days.Data by YChartsNot too long ago, these companies were trading for 200-300 times net profits, despite having reached a much larger size already. Palantir, with stronger gross margins and a smaller size, is not trading for 200 or even 300 times net earnings. Since we all know that buying Amazon or Netflix five years ago was a great decision, Palantir's current valuation may indeed not be unreasonable.When we assume that current estimates for 2023's net earnings are correct, and that Palantir will be able to grow its earnings per share by 25% a year through the 2020s, then net earnings would total $1.23 in 2030. Put a 35 times earnings multiple on that, and shares would be valued at $43, which would lead to annual returns of ~6%.A 35 times earnings multiple may be on the conservative side still - after all, even a giant such as Amazon is trading at 72 times earnings today. Palantir may also be able to grow its earnings per share at a higher pace than 25% a year during the 2020s. Lastly, Palantir may be way more profitable in 2023 compared to what analysts are forecasting right now (after all, the company has easily beaten estimates in the past), which would lead to higher EPS in 2030 as well, assuming an unchanged growth rate. In a more bullish scenario, where Palantir earns $0.30 in 2023, grows its EPS by 30% a year through 2030 and trades at 40 times net earnings in 2030, the stock could be worth $75 nine years from now, delivering 200% in that scenario. I'm not saying that this will happen - no one can know that right now. But I believe that, with reasonable assumptions, it can be argued that Palantir's shares may not be all that overpriced right now.How To Get Into Palantir At A Lower PriceFor those that like the company, but that deem shares a little too expensive, selling covered calls or cash-secured puts could be an interesting choice. Due to a high implied volatility, option premiums are quite high. If you buy 100 shares at $25 and sell a $30 call with expiry in June 2022 at $6.30, you effectively entered a position at $18.70, or a 25% discount to the current price. There is a risk of shares getting called away, but even in that scenario, one would still generate a return of 45% ($36.30/$25) in 14 months, which would not at all be unattractive.Similarly, entering a position via cash-secured puts (e.g. Jan 2022 puts with a strike price selling for$3.00right now) could be a way to get a sizeable discount versus the current share price.TakeawayAt first sight, Palantir looks quite expensive, trading for around 150 times net earnings. But when we take a closer look, the above-average quality, strong growth outlook, and great market position, Palantir may well be worth its current price. I see it as one of the most favorable among the hyped-up growth stocks - which I see as overvalued in most cases - and believe that investors who buy Palantir's shares right here may very well do fine in the long run. I still believe that utilizing option strategies to enter a position at a lower effective price could be a good idea though, as this is highly rewarding thanks to very high option premiums.Palantir looks quite expensive but unlike many other hyped-up names, it could be worth its current valuation, I believe. I believe that the stock is interesting for very long-term oriented investors that want to see Palantir's potential play out over the next decades.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343884324,"gmtCreate":1617702867568,"gmtModify":1704701961883,"author":{"id":"3569406601334216","authorId":"3569406601334216","name":"carolzmf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a41a63f1637744575c48353174dd484d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569406601334216","authorIdStr":"3569406601334216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stuff","listText":"Good stuff","text":"Good stuff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343884324","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101907559?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p>\n<p>In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p>\n<p>Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p>\n<p>The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p>\n<p>A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p>\n<p><b>Unregulated money managers</b></p>\n<p>Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p>\n<p>This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p>\n<p>The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p>\n<p>But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p>\n<p><b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p>\n<p>This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p>\n<p>So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p>\n<p>One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p>\n<p>But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p>\n<p><b>Yellen on the case</b></p>\n<p>This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p>\n<p>Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p>\n<p>The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 09:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}