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2021-03-01

Nice

Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers

2021-02-25

Waiting for recovery!

Tesla Plunge Spreads to China Rivals as EV Tycoons’ Wealth Sinks

2021-02-17

Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...

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2021-03-05

Yeah really? Should we buy? ?

Electric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity

2021-02-17

Good

PayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.

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Should we buy? ?","listText":"Yeah really? Should we buy? ?","text":"Yeah really? Should we buy? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367346412","repostId":"1109456421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109456421","pubTimestamp":1614867505,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109456421?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109456421","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehi","content":"<p>Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.</p>\n<p>Analyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and transformation is just beginning as this industry is on the cusp of a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next decade. With GM(NYSE:GM), Ford(NYSE:F), and now Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)&nbsp;all jumping into the deep end of the pool on EVs it speaks to the massive pent up demand globally around EV technology on the horizon.\"</p>\n<p>Ives notes that EV penetration is only 3% today globally and says the firm forecasts it will go to 10% by 2025 with a green tidal wave on the horizon.</p>\n<p>From a stock perspective, Wedbush thinks the sell-off in EV land creates a massive buying opportunity to own the Chinese EV players like Nio(NYSE:NIO), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)and Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), as well as the leader of the pack Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)heading into the golden age of EVs.</p>\n<p>All bullish roads on EV stocks lead back to China.</p>\n<p>\"We believe China could see eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage, as domestic players such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and Li also are also firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface of the overall TAM in China,\" note Ives and team.</p>\n<p>Earlier this week:&nbsp;Stock picks for the zero-emission commercial vehicle transition.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-04 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.\nAnalyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1109456421","content_text":"Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.\nAnalyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and transformation is just beginning as this industry is on the cusp of a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next decade. With GM(NYSE:GM), Ford(NYSE:F), and now Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF) all jumping into the deep end of the pool on EVs it speaks to the massive pent up demand globally around EV technology on the horizon.\"\nIves notes that EV penetration is only 3% today globally and says the firm forecasts it will go to 10% by 2025 with a green tidal wave on the horizon.\nFrom a stock perspective, Wedbush thinks the sell-off in EV land creates a massive buying opportunity to own the Chinese EV players like Nio(NYSE:NIO), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)and Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), as well as the leader of the pack Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)heading into the golden age of EVs.\nAll bullish roads on EV stocks lead back to China.\n\"We believe China could see eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage, as domestic players such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and Li also are also firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface of the overall TAM in China,\" note Ives and team.\nEarlier this week: Stock picks for the zero-emission commercial vehicle transition.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362365756,"gmtCreate":1614598646175,"gmtModify":1704772864664,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362365756","repostId":"1161169607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161169607","pubTimestamp":1614584947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161169607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161169607","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yiel","content":"<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd3fa48c3856c9963ae7e9f6e6de625\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"232\">It's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"<b>the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>First, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Predictably,<i><b>Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"</b></i>with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So what<i><b>would</b></i>cause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"<b>keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"</b>But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdbd39d9b2a4e20ee8ef423435a57d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"169\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Second, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Addressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast that<b>S&amp;P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.</b>In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Third, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,<b>but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.</b>Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a23015dc5dbaee1d4660e8e902a000\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"175\">Of course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications for<i><b>rotations within the equity market,</b></i>a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,<b>this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.</b>Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&amp;P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.</p>\n<p>As Kostin writes, \"<b>this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"</b>One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is that<b>a basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.</b>The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.</p>\n<p>To be sure, while earnings for S&amp;P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,<b>the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.</b>In fact,<b>1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.</b></p>\n<p>Getting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.<b>But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"</b>Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"<b>those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672e0f0b03d6b3cec8ec067276919bf9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"171\"><b>Recently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.</b>The cyclical and virus-affected firms with<b>negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.</b>Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,<b>the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.</b>Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00a42075ac35763072cb85546315087\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\">Putting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"<b>looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"</b>The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b2dbfc010259d8bc5120f85d13070\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"364\">And although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes that<b>those stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.</b></p>\n<p>Which brings us to the other side of the table: the<b>chart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021</b>. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e14fcedd553203d06c6a3639a17f8f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161169607","content_text":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.\nIt's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"\n\nFirst, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.\n\nPredictably,Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So whatwouldcause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.\n\n\nSecond, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.\n\nAddressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast thatS&P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.\n\nThird, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.\n\nAs the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.\nOf course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications forrotations within the equity market,a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November\nWhich brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.\nAs Kostin writes, \"this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is thata basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.\nTo be sure, while earnings for S&P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.In fact,1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.\nGetting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"\nRecently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.The cyclical and virus-affected firms withnegative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.\nPutting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:\nAnd although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes thatthose stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.\nWhich brings us to the other side of the table: thechart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361164604,"gmtCreate":1614214328308,"gmtModify":1704889623832,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for recovery!","listText":"Waiting for recovery!","text":"Waiting for recovery!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361164604","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385433867,"gmtCreate":1613571098559,"gmtModify":1704882188767,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...&nbsp;","text":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385433867","repostId":"1167310121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167310121","pubTimestamp":1613550070,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167310121?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 16:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Scales $51,000 for the First Time Amid Crypto Fever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167310121","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Largest digital token extends its fivefold rally in past yearJPMorgan says Bitcoin volatility needs ","content":"<ul><li>Largest digital token extends its fivefold rally in past year</li><li>JPMorgan says Bitcoin volatility needs to ebb to sustain rally</li></ul><p>Bitcoin’s incredible rally shows little sign of abating yet after the token jumped past $51,000 for the first time.</p><p>The largest cryptocurrency rose almost 6% Wednesday to about $51,431 after a fivefold surge in the past year, according to a composite of prices compiled by Bloomberg. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index reached a record.</p><p>Bitcoin’s rally for some is emblematic of speculative froth in financial markets awash with stimulus. The crypto faithful counter that the digital asset is grabbing more mainstream attention, especially after&nbsp;Tesla Inc.’s recent $1.5 billion purchase.MicroStrategy Inc.&nbsp;said Tuesday it would sell $600 million of convertible bonds and use the proceeds to buy more of the tokens.</p><p>MicroStrategy’s step is “a warning sign if there ever was one that things are getting out of hand in the crypto world,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at&nbsp;Oanda Asia Pacific Pte, wrote in emailed comments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fef83bce616e135fef280f6b2b2e556a\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>Others take a different view, contending that demand from institutional investors and companies is set to expand, driving further gains.</p><p>“There are a number of reasons why Bitcoin is soaring, but what stands out most is the trend that MicroStrategy started and Tesla popularised: moving institutional balance sheets into Bitcoin to hedge against inflation,” said Nicholas Pelecanos, head of trading at NEM.</p><p>Activity inBitcoin futures&nbsp;suggests traders don’t see a sudden end to the crypto rally, with spreads continuing to widen between the active contract and March futures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p>Shares of Asian crypto-linked companies are&nbsp;advancing&nbsp;too. Japan’s&nbsp;Monex Group Inc.&nbsp;jumped 11% to hit a 13-year high, while&nbsp;BC Technology Group Ltd.&nbsp;in Hong Kong closed at a record.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f64a9af9a78c46c150143e5d4ab452a\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\"></p><p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists&nbsp;said&nbsp;Bitcoin’s volatility needs to ease to prevent its rally from fizzling. Other commentators see a mania likely to end in a bust akin to the implosion in 2017.</p><p>The digital coin’s 60-day realized volatility is around the highest since May last year, though still below the levels seen around the peak of its last boom some three years ago.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Scales $51,000 for the First Time Amid Crypto Fever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Scales $51,000 for the First Time Amid Crypto Fever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-17 16:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/bitcoin-jumps-to-all-time-high-as-cryptocurrency-fever-continues?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Largest digital token extends its fivefold rally in past yearJPMorgan says Bitcoin volatility needs to ebb to sustain rallyBitcoin’s incredible rally shows little sign of abating yet after the token ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/bitcoin-jumps-to-all-time-high-as-cryptocurrency-fever-continues?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/bitcoin-jumps-to-all-time-high-as-cryptocurrency-fever-continues?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167310121","content_text":"Largest digital token extends its fivefold rally in past yearJPMorgan says Bitcoin volatility needs to ebb to sustain rallyBitcoin’s incredible rally shows little sign of abating yet after the token jumped past $51,000 for the first time.The largest cryptocurrency rose almost 6% Wednesday to about $51,431 after a fivefold surge in the past year, according to a composite of prices compiled by Bloomberg. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index reached a record.Bitcoin’s rally for some is emblematic of speculative froth in financial markets awash with stimulus. The crypto faithful counter that the digital asset is grabbing more mainstream attention, especially after Tesla Inc.’s recent $1.5 billion purchase.MicroStrategy Inc. said Tuesday it would sell $600 million of convertible bonds and use the proceeds to buy more of the tokens.MicroStrategy’s step is “a warning sign if there ever was one that things are getting out of hand in the crypto world,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific Pte, wrote in emailed comments.Others take a different view, contending that demand from institutional investors and companies is set to expand, driving further gains.“There are a number of reasons why Bitcoin is soaring, but what stands out most is the trend that MicroStrategy started and Tesla popularised: moving institutional balance sheets into Bitcoin to hedge against inflation,” said Nicholas Pelecanos, head of trading at NEM.Activity inBitcoin futures suggests traders don’t see a sudden end to the crypto rally, with spreads continuing to widen between the active contract and March futures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Shares of Asian crypto-linked companies are advancing too. Japan’s Monex Group Inc. jumped 11% to hit a 13-year high, while BC Technology Group Ltd. in Hong Kong closed at a record.JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said Bitcoin’s volatility needs to ease to prevent its rally from fizzling. Other commentators see a mania likely to end in a bust akin to the implosion in 2017.The digital coin’s 60-day realized volatility is around the highest since May last year, though still below the levels seen around the peak of its last boom some three years ago.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385497585,"gmtCreate":1613570924147,"gmtModify":1704882184723,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385497585","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109567373","pubTimestamp":1613557874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109567373?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109567373","media":"Barrons","summary":"Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of ","content":"<p>Investors can’t get enough of&nbsp;PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past&nbsp;Mastercard‘s.</p>\n<p>Shares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306. PayPal’s market value is now $359 billion.Mastercard‘s equity, meanwhile, was worth $339 billion at recent prices around $341.</p>\n<p>Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V), the two major card-processing networks, have been hurt by a slowdown in payment volumes related to the pandemic, particularly in highly profitable cross-border transactions. Both stocks are down around 4% this year and are largely flat over the past 52 weeks.</p>\n<p>PayPal, on the other hand, got a lift as the pandemic sent shoppers online and fueled a surge in digital payments. The company is also developing new revenue streams, aiming to become a digital payments “super app,” expanding into everything from Bitcoin to in-store QR-codes, international money transfers, and new peer-to-peer (P2P) services.</p>\n<p>PayPal outlined its five-year strategy in a presentation to investors last week. And some analysts were clearly impressed. Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson raised her price target on the stock to $350, reflecting a variety of sources of growth.</p>\n<p>Just about every facet of the business may bepoisedto double over the next five years. PayPal expects to have 750 million active accounts by 2025, up from 377 million now. It sees total payments volume expanding at a 25% annualized rate, reaching $2.8 trillion by 2025.&nbsp; Revenues are expected to hit more than $50 billion, up from an estimated $25.6 billion this year.</p>\n<p>PayPal also expects to boost adjusted operating margins from 25% to 28%, and sees earnings per share rising an average 22% a year. It’s planning to generate $40 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, targeting 30% to 40% for share repurchases.</p>\n<p>As Ellis points out, PayPal has several stepping stones to hit those targets. One is a new service called Buy Now Pay Later, an interest-free installment plan for consumer purchases. The service is gaining traction, with $750 million of transaction volume in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>Anothergrowth driveris cryptocurrencies. PayPal users can now buy and store Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its app. The company aims to allow crypto to be used as a funding source with the 28 million merchants on its platform, acting as a middleman between consumers and businesses. Bitcoinhit a record$50,000 on Tuesday, up 75% this year, and it appears to be driving greater usage of PayPal, which could ultimately lead to higher average revenue per customer.</p>\n<p>PayPal also aims to use its Venmo P2P service as a platform for consumer-to-business payments. And PayPal is making inroads with brick-and-mortar merchants through QR technology for contactless payments in stores.</p>\n<p>Does all of this warrant a higher market value and a steep premium to Mastercard stock? The card network is actually expected to lift revenue and profits at a faster pace in fiscal 2021, according to Ellis, growing revenue 21.7% versus 19% for PayPal. She also sees Mastercard’s earnings per share rising 33.3% versus 17.5% for PayPal’s.</p>\n<p>But the five-year outlook is clearly more favorable for PayPal, with revenue rising 21% a year, compared with 15% for Mastercard, and earnings compounding at a 22% rate, versus 17% for Mastercard.</p>\n<p>The question is whether PayPal’s valuation is getting too rich. At 67 times estimated 2021 per-share earnings, PayPal stock is trading nearly three times more expensive than the S&amp;P 500’s P/E ratio of 23 times earnings. Mastercard goes for 42 times 2021 earnings.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, Wall Street can’t seem to catch up with PayPal’s fast-rising stock. The average target for the stock price is $309, less than 2% above the recent level.</p>\n<p>“You have to appreciate the earnings power in the model,” says Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri, who maintained a $300 target on the stock after the presentation last week. “The more they’re able to expand user engagement and get to point where users keep going back and using its products, the more the user fees can go up.”</p>\n<p>Whether that means the stock can keep climbing will depend on how quickly it can turn into the super-app that Wall Street has come to expect.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-17 18:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MA":"万事达","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109567373","content_text":"Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306. PayPal’s market value is now $359 billion.Mastercard‘s equity, meanwhile, was worth $339 billion at recent prices around $341.\nMastercard (MA) andVisa(V), the two major card-processing networks, have been hurt by a slowdown in payment volumes related to the pandemic, particularly in highly profitable cross-border transactions. Both stocks are down around 4% this year and are largely flat over the past 52 weeks.\nPayPal, on the other hand, got a lift as the pandemic sent shoppers online and fueled a surge in digital payments. The company is also developing new revenue streams, aiming to become a digital payments “super app,” expanding into everything from Bitcoin to in-store QR-codes, international money transfers, and new peer-to-peer (P2P) services.\nPayPal outlined its five-year strategy in a presentation to investors last week. And some analysts were clearly impressed. Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson raised her price target on the stock to $350, reflecting a variety of sources of growth.\nJust about every facet of the business may bepoisedto double over the next five years. PayPal expects to have 750 million active accounts by 2025, up from 377 million now. It sees total payments volume expanding at a 25% annualized rate, reaching $2.8 trillion by 2025.  Revenues are expected to hit more than $50 billion, up from an estimated $25.6 billion this year.\nPayPal also expects to boost adjusted operating margins from 25% to 28%, and sees earnings per share rising an average 22% a year. It’s planning to generate $40 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, targeting 30% to 40% for share repurchases.\nAs Ellis points out, PayPal has several stepping stones to hit those targets. One is a new service called Buy Now Pay Later, an interest-free installment plan for consumer purchases. The service is gaining traction, with $750 million of transaction volume in the fourth quarter.\nAnothergrowth driveris cryptocurrencies. PayPal users can now buy and store Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its app. The company aims to allow crypto to be used as a funding source with the 28 million merchants on its platform, acting as a middleman between consumers and businesses. Bitcoinhit a record$50,000 on Tuesday, up 75% this year, and it appears to be driving greater usage of PayPal, which could ultimately lead to higher average revenue per customer.\nPayPal also aims to use its Venmo P2P service as a platform for consumer-to-business payments. And PayPal is making inroads with brick-and-mortar merchants through QR technology for contactless payments in stores.\nDoes all of this warrant a higher market value and a steep premium to Mastercard stock? The card network is actually expected to lift revenue and profits at a faster pace in fiscal 2021, according to Ellis, growing revenue 21.7% versus 19% for PayPal. She also sees Mastercard’s earnings per share rising 33.3% versus 17.5% for PayPal’s.\nBut the five-year outlook is clearly more favorable for PayPal, with revenue rising 21% a year, compared with 15% for Mastercard, and earnings compounding at a 22% rate, versus 17% for Mastercard.\nThe question is whether PayPal’s valuation is getting too rich. At 67 times estimated 2021 per-share earnings, PayPal stock is trading nearly three times more expensive than the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 23 times earnings. Mastercard goes for 42 times 2021 earnings.\nNonetheless, Wall Street can’t seem to catch up with PayPal’s fast-rising stock. The average target for the stock price is $309, less than 2% above the recent level.\n“You have to appreciate the earnings power in the model,” says Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri, who maintained a $300 target on the stock after the presentation last week. “The more they’re able to expand user engagement and get to point where users keep going back and using its products, the more the user fees can go up.”\nWhether that means the stock can keep climbing will depend on how quickly it can turn into the super-app that Wall Street has come to expect.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":362365756,"gmtCreate":1614598646175,"gmtModify":1704772864664,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362365756","repostId":"1161169607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161169607","pubTimestamp":1614584947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161169607?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161169607","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yiel","content":"<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd3fa48c3856c9963ae7e9f6e6de625\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"232\">It's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"<b>the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>First, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Predictably,<i><b>Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"</b></i>with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So what<i><b>would</b></i>cause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"<b>keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"</b>But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdbd39d9b2a4e20ee8ef423435a57d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"169\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Second, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Addressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast that<b>S&amp;P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.</b>In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Third, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,<b>but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.</b>Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a23015dc5dbaee1d4660e8e902a000\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"175\">Of course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications for<i><b>rotations within the equity market,</b></i>a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,<b>this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.</b>Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&amp;P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.</p>\n<p>As Kostin writes, \"<b>this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"</b>One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is that<b>a basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.</b>The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.</p>\n<p>To be sure, while earnings for S&amp;P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,<b>the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.</b>In fact,<b>1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.</b></p>\n<p>Getting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.<b>But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"</b>Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"<b>those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672e0f0b03d6b3cec8ec067276919bf9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"171\"><b>Recently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.</b>The cyclical and virus-affected firms with<b>negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.</b>Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,<b>the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.</b>Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00a42075ac35763072cb85546315087\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\">Putting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"<b>looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"</b>The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b2dbfc010259d8bc5120f85d13070\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"364\">And although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes that<b>those stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.</b></p>\n<p>Which brings us to the other side of the table: the<b>chart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021</b>. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e14fcedd553203d06c6a3639a17f8f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161169607","content_text":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.\nIt's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"\n\nFirst, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.\n\nPredictably,Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So whatwouldcause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.\n\n\nSecond, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.\n\nAddressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast thatS&P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.\n\nThird, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.\n\nAs the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.\nOf course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications forrotations within the equity market,a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November\nWhich brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.\nAs Kostin writes, \"this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is thata basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.\nTo be sure, while earnings for S&P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.In fact,1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.\nGetting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"\nRecently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.The cyclical and virus-affected firms withnegative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.\nPutting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:\nAnd although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes thatthose stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.\nWhich brings us to the other side of the table: thechart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361164604,"gmtCreate":1614214328308,"gmtModify":1704889623832,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for recovery!","listText":"Waiting for recovery!","text":"Waiting for recovery!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361164604","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197530704","pubTimestamp":1614146811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197530704?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 14:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Plunge Spreads to China Rivals as EV Tycoons’ Wealth Sinks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197530704","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle pioneers who have ridden Elon Musk’s coat-tails to riches have lost around $10 billion in recent weeks as Tesla Inc.’s staggering rally goes into reverse.The U.S.-listed sharesof Xpeng Inc. have plunged 33% from their recent highs, while Li Xiang’s Li Auto Inc.is down 27% from its early-January peak.Nio Inc.has slumped 22% from peak to trough.“EV stocks have priced in big growth over a long timeframe, leaving them particularly vulnerable to shifts in sentiment,” said","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle pioneers who have ridden Elon Musk’s coat-tails to riches have lost around $10 billion in recent weeks as&nbsp;Tesla Inc.’s staggering rally goes into reverse.</p>\n<p>The U.S.-listed sharesof&nbsp;Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;have plunged 33% from their recent highs, while Li Xiang’s&nbsp;Li Auto Inc.is down 27% from its early-January peak.Nio Inc.has slumped 22% from peak to trough.</p>\n<p>“EV stocks have priced in big growth over a long timeframe, leaving them particularly vulnerable to shifts in sentiment,” said Robert Cowell, a Shanghai-based equity research analyst of 86Research. “Also competition is probably a part of it. There can only be a few market leaders in the long term.”</p>\n<p>The combined fortune of the three tycoons who founded the companies -- He Xiaopeng, Li Xiang and Bin Li has declined about $10 billion from January highs, according to the&nbsp;Bloomberg Billionaires Index.</p>\n<p>The damage has also spread to the Hong Kong-listed shares&nbsp;of&nbsp;China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd., which have shed 23% this week.BYD Co., the Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturer backed by Warren Buffett, has fallen 18% from its recent high.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abdead18af4f7c4554d2004315476ab8\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>The slide comes as Tesla shares wiped out their year-to-date gains Tuesday and briefly traded below the level where they were when the electric-car makerentered the S&amp;P 500 Index in December.</p>\n<p>While the selloff was fueled in part by Musk’s comments that the price of Bitcoin seems “high,” there are other factors that may also be taking the shine off EV makers, including a continuous stream of&nbsp;EV development news&nbsp;from traditional automakers such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., as they prepare to go all in on the electrification race.</p>\n<p>Hyundai Motor Co. earlier this week unveiled itsIoniq 5&nbsp;electric car, saying it aims to sell 70,000 of the vehicles this year, rising to 100,000 next year.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Plunge Spreads to China Rivals as EV Tycoons’ Wealth Sinks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Plunge Spreads to China Rivals as EV Tycoons’ Wealth Sinks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 14:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/china-ev-tycoons-wealth-hit-as-tesla-decline-snares-rivals><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle pioneers who have ridden Elon Musk’s coat-tails to riches have lost around $10 billion in recent weeks as Tesla Inc.’s staggering rally goes into reverse.\nThe U.S.-listed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/china-ev-tycoons-wealth-hit-as-tesla-decline-snares-rivals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/china-ev-tycoons-wealth-hit-as-tesla-decline-snares-rivals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197530704","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle pioneers who have ridden Elon Musk’s coat-tails to riches have lost around $10 billion in recent weeks as Tesla Inc.’s staggering rally goes into reverse.\nThe U.S.-listed sharesof Xpeng Inc. have plunged 33% from their recent highs, while Li Xiang’s Li Auto Inc.is down 27% from its early-January peak.Nio Inc.has slumped 22% from peak to trough.\n“EV stocks have priced in big growth over a long timeframe, leaving them particularly vulnerable to shifts in sentiment,” said Robert Cowell, a Shanghai-based equity research analyst of 86Research. “Also competition is probably a part of it. There can only be a few market leaders in the long term.”\nThe combined fortune of the three tycoons who founded the companies -- He Xiaopeng, Li Xiang and Bin Li has declined about $10 billion from January highs, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nThe damage has also spread to the Hong Kong-listed shares of China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd., which have shed 23% this week.BYD Co., the Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturer backed by Warren Buffett, has fallen 18% from its recent high.\n\nThe slide comes as Tesla shares wiped out their year-to-date gains Tuesday and briefly traded below the level where they were when the electric-car makerentered the S&P 500 Index in December.\nWhile the selloff was fueled in part by Musk’s comments that the price of Bitcoin seems “high,” there are other factors that may also be taking the shine off EV makers, including a continuous stream of EV development news from traditional automakers such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co., as they prepare to go all in on the electrification race.\nHyundai Motor Co. earlier this week unveiled itsIoniq 5 electric car, saying it aims to sell 70,000 of the vehicles this year, rising to 100,000 next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385433867,"gmtCreate":1613571098559,"gmtModify":1704882188767,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...&nbsp;","listText":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...&nbsp;","text":"Yeah, there’s supposingly limited bitcoins to be mined. Hmm...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385433867","repostId":"1167310121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367346412,"gmtCreate":1614914297836,"gmtModify":1704776928987,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah really? Should we buy? ?","listText":"Yeah really? Should we buy? ?","text":"Yeah really? Should we buy? ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/367346412","repostId":"1109456421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109456421","pubTimestamp":1614867505,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109456421?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Electric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109456421","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehi","content":"<p>Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.</p>\n<p>Analyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and transformation is just beginning as this industry is on the cusp of a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next decade. With GM(NYSE:GM), Ford(NYSE:F), and now Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)&nbsp;all jumping into the deep end of the pool on EVs it speaks to the massive pent up demand globally around EV technology on the horizon.\"</p>\n<p>Ives notes that EV penetration is only 3% today globally and says the firm forecasts it will go to 10% by 2025 with a green tidal wave on the horizon.</p>\n<p>From a stock perspective, Wedbush thinks the sell-off in EV land creates a massive buying opportunity to own the Chinese EV players like Nio(NYSE:NIO), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)and Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), as well as the leader of the pack Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)heading into the golden age of EVs.</p>\n<p>All bullish roads on EV stocks lead back to China.</p>\n<p>\"We believe China could see eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage, as domestic players such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and Li also are also firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface of the overall TAM in China,\" note Ives and team.</p>\n<p>Earlier this week:&nbsp;Stock picks for the zero-emission commercial vehicle transition.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Electric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nElectric vehicle stock sell-off called 'massive' buying opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-04 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.\nAnalyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3669348-electric-vehicle-stock-sell-off-called-massive-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1109456421","content_text":"Wedbush Securities tackles the question on if the parabolic run in the share prices of electric vehicles stock is over.\nAnalyst Dan Ives: \"Our answer is emphatically that the EV party and transformation is just beginning as this industry is on the cusp of a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next decade. With GM(NYSE:GM), Ford(NYSE:F), and now Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF) all jumping into the deep end of the pool on EVs it speaks to the massive pent up demand globally around EV technology on the horizon.\"\nIves notes that EV penetration is only 3% today globally and says the firm forecasts it will go to 10% by 2025 with a green tidal wave on the horizon.\nFrom a stock perspective, Wedbush thinks the sell-off in EV land creates a massive buying opportunity to own the Chinese EV players like Nio(NYSE:NIO), XPeng(NYSE:XPEV)and Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI), as well as the leader of the pack Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)heading into the golden age of EVs.\nAll bullish roads on EV stocks lead back to China.\n\"We believe China could see eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage, as domestic players such as BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and Li also are also firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface of the overall TAM in China,\" note Ives and team.\nEarlier this week: Stock picks for the zero-emission commercial vehicle transition.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385497585,"gmtCreate":1613570924147,"gmtModify":1704882184723,"author":{"id":"3569498379997992","authorId":"3569498379997992","name":"Euphoricbuzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009cbeab44372f22c0118bbb1d116c7f","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569498379997992","authorIdStr":"3569498379997992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385497585","repostId":"1109567373","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109567373","pubTimestamp":1613557874,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109567373?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109567373","media":"Barrons","summary":"Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of ","content":"<p>Investors can’t get enough of&nbsp;PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past&nbsp;Mastercard‘s.</p>\n<p>Shares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306. PayPal’s market value is now $359 billion.Mastercard‘s equity, meanwhile, was worth $339 billion at recent prices around $341.</p>\n<p>Mastercard (MA) andVisa(V), the two major card-processing networks, have been hurt by a slowdown in payment volumes related to the pandemic, particularly in highly profitable cross-border transactions. Both stocks are down around 4% this year and are largely flat over the past 52 weeks.</p>\n<p>PayPal, on the other hand, got a lift as the pandemic sent shoppers online and fueled a surge in digital payments. The company is also developing new revenue streams, aiming to become a digital payments “super app,” expanding into everything from Bitcoin to in-store QR-codes, international money transfers, and new peer-to-peer (P2P) services.</p>\n<p>PayPal outlined its five-year strategy in a presentation to investors last week. And some analysts were clearly impressed. Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson raised her price target on the stock to $350, reflecting a variety of sources of growth.</p>\n<p>Just about every facet of the business may bepoisedto double over the next five years. PayPal expects to have 750 million active accounts by 2025, up from 377 million now. It sees total payments volume expanding at a 25% annualized rate, reaching $2.8 trillion by 2025.&nbsp; Revenues are expected to hit more than $50 billion, up from an estimated $25.6 billion this year.</p>\n<p>PayPal also expects to boost adjusted operating margins from 25% to 28%, and sees earnings per share rising an average 22% a year. It’s planning to generate $40 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, targeting 30% to 40% for share repurchases.</p>\n<p>As Ellis points out, PayPal has several stepping stones to hit those targets. One is a new service called Buy Now Pay Later, an interest-free installment plan for consumer purchases. The service is gaining traction, with $750 million of transaction volume in the fourth quarter.</p>\n<p>Anothergrowth driveris cryptocurrencies. PayPal users can now buy and store Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its app. The company aims to allow crypto to be used as a funding source with the 28 million merchants on its platform, acting as a middleman between consumers and businesses. Bitcoinhit a record$50,000 on Tuesday, up 75% this year, and it appears to be driving greater usage of PayPal, which could ultimately lead to higher average revenue per customer.</p>\n<p>PayPal also aims to use its Venmo P2P service as a platform for consumer-to-business payments. And PayPal is making inroads with brick-and-mortar merchants through QR technology for contactless payments in stores.</p>\n<p>Does all of this warrant a higher market value and a steep premium to Mastercard stock? The card network is actually expected to lift revenue and profits at a faster pace in fiscal 2021, according to Ellis, growing revenue 21.7% versus 19% for PayPal. She also sees Mastercard’s earnings per share rising 33.3% versus 17.5% for PayPal’s.</p>\n<p>But the five-year outlook is clearly more favorable for PayPal, with revenue rising 21% a year, compared with 15% for Mastercard, and earnings compounding at a 22% rate, versus 17% for Mastercard.</p>\n<p>The question is whether PayPal’s valuation is getting too rich. At 67 times estimated 2021 per-share earnings, PayPal stock is trading nearly three times more expensive than the S&amp;P 500’s P/E ratio of 23 times earnings. Mastercard goes for 42 times 2021 earnings.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, Wall Street can’t seem to catch up with PayPal’s fast-rising stock. The average target for the stock price is $309, less than 2% above the recent level.</p>\n<p>“You have to appreciate the earnings power in the model,” says Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri, who maintained a $300 target on the stock after the presentation last week. “The more they’re able to expand user engagement and get to point where users keep going back and using its products, the more the user fees can go up.”</p>\n<p>Whether that means the stock can keep climbing will depend on how quickly it can turn into the super-app that Wall Street has come to expect.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Is Now Worth More Than Mastercard. Why It May Extend Its Lead.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-17 18:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MA":"万事达","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/paypal-is-now-worth-more-than-mastercard-why-it-may-extend-its-lead-51613506791?mod=hp_DAY_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109567373","content_text":"Investors can’t get enough of PayPal Holdings,pushing its market value past Mastercard‘s.\nShares of PayPal (ticker: PYPL) have rocketed 31% this year, including a 2.7% gain on Tuesday, to around $306. PayPal’s market value is now $359 billion.Mastercard‘s equity, meanwhile, was worth $339 billion at recent prices around $341.\nMastercard (MA) andVisa(V), the two major card-processing networks, have been hurt by a slowdown in payment volumes related to the pandemic, particularly in highly profitable cross-border transactions. Both stocks are down around 4% this year and are largely flat over the past 52 weeks.\nPayPal, on the other hand, got a lift as the pandemic sent shoppers online and fueled a surge in digital payments. The company is also developing new revenue streams, aiming to become a digital payments “super app,” expanding into everything from Bitcoin to in-store QR-codes, international money transfers, and new peer-to-peer (P2P) services.\nPayPal outlined its five-year strategy in a presentation to investors last week. And some analysts were clearly impressed. Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson raised her price target on the stock to $350, reflecting a variety of sources of growth.\nJust about every facet of the business may bepoisedto double over the next five years. PayPal expects to have 750 million active accounts by 2025, up from 377 million now. It sees total payments volume expanding at a 25% annualized rate, reaching $2.8 trillion by 2025.  Revenues are expected to hit more than $50 billion, up from an estimated $25.6 billion this year.\nPayPal also expects to boost adjusted operating margins from 25% to 28%, and sees earnings per share rising an average 22% a year. It’s planning to generate $40 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, targeting 30% to 40% for share repurchases.\nAs Ellis points out, PayPal has several stepping stones to hit those targets. One is a new service called Buy Now Pay Later, an interest-free installment plan for consumer purchases. The service is gaining traction, with $750 million of transaction volume in the fourth quarter.\nAnothergrowth driveris cryptocurrencies. PayPal users can now buy and store Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on its app. The company aims to allow crypto to be used as a funding source with the 28 million merchants on its platform, acting as a middleman between consumers and businesses. Bitcoinhit a record$50,000 on Tuesday, up 75% this year, and it appears to be driving greater usage of PayPal, which could ultimately lead to higher average revenue per customer.\nPayPal also aims to use its Venmo P2P service as a platform for consumer-to-business payments. And PayPal is making inroads with brick-and-mortar merchants through QR technology for contactless payments in stores.\nDoes all of this warrant a higher market value and a steep premium to Mastercard stock? The card network is actually expected to lift revenue and profits at a faster pace in fiscal 2021, according to Ellis, growing revenue 21.7% versus 19% for PayPal. She also sees Mastercard’s earnings per share rising 33.3% versus 17.5% for PayPal’s.\nBut the five-year outlook is clearly more favorable for PayPal, with revenue rising 21% a year, compared with 15% for Mastercard, and earnings compounding at a 22% rate, versus 17% for Mastercard.\nThe question is whether PayPal’s valuation is getting too rich. At 67 times estimated 2021 per-share earnings, PayPal stock is trading nearly three times more expensive than the S&P 500’s P/E ratio of 23 times earnings. Mastercard goes for 42 times 2021 earnings.\nNonetheless, Wall Street can’t seem to catch up with PayPal’s fast-rising stock. The average target for the stock price is $309, less than 2% above the recent level.\n“You have to appreciate the earnings power in the model,” says Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri, who maintained a $300 target on the stock after the presentation last week. “The more they’re able to expand user engagement and get to point where users keep going back and using its products, the more the user fees can go up.”\nWhether that means the stock can keep climbing will depend on how quickly it can turn into the super-app that Wall Street has come to expect.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}