财运亨通666 personal page - To The Moon

财运亨通666

财运亨通666

财运滚滚而来

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财运亨通666

10-07

I opened $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ ,test water again.

财运亨通666

11-22

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....

财运亨通666

09-24

I opened $YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$ ,To test water.

财运亨通666

2021-07-28

STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.

财运亨通666

2021-09-03

3 sep 2021

财运亨通666

06-07

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 😀

财运亨通666

2021-07-07

6

维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷

财运亨通666

12-02

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ looks like short squeeze really is coming [哟哟]

财运亨通666

2021-04-12

$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$for points

财运亨通666

11-20

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ short squeeze is coming [真香]

财运亨通666

11-27

[强]

Super Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards

财运亨通666

2021-04-16

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$amazing

财运亨通666

12-06

$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$

财运亨通666

2023-04-03

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$

财运亨通666

2021-04-19

。

【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BITO\">$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BITO\">$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378667589251120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377281564889424,"gmtCreate":1733148908934,"gmtModify":1733149660103,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> looks like short squeeze really is coming&nbsp;[哟哟]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> looks like short squeeze really is coming&nbsp;[哟哟]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ looks like short squeeze really is coming [哟哟]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377281564889424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375493577449584,"gmtCreate":1732691718648,"gmtModify":1732691721869,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375493577449584","repostId":"2486857052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2486857052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732678854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2486857052?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-27 11:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486857052","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.The company's products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the \"AI\" space.All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.   Thomas Barwick  Can Super Micro make a comeback?I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc.  but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.</p></li><li><p>Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the &#34;AI&#34; space.</p></li><li><p>All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20e68a708dffe837186b201c8944c5de\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2622593126\">Can Super Micro make a comeback?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro has submitted a plan to the Nasdaq to remain listed after delaying their 10-K filing, I decided to finally take a look.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Interestingly, enough if delisted, this would be the second go around with the last one occurring in 2018. Will this time around be different? Is Super Micro really so undervalued right now that if they can remain on the Nasdaq the stock would skyrocket? Let&#39;s examine.</p><h2 id=\"id_3031578311\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Year-to-date performance</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c865f6fd0f40fbf8551fd4eb9da4003d\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Year-to-date the company is not a poor performer. This still beats most stocks in the S&amp;P500 from a year-to-date price return perspective.</p><h3 id=\"id_668915982\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Off from all-time high</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8238b9ace26cf559a64122fec498d42d\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But from an all-time high perspective, this stock has been crushed. Down nearly -67% with the possible prospect of a delisting should the NASDAQ not accept their plan to remain in compliance with accounting regulations. It may still be an opportunity for the bold.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This time Super Micro seems more nimble and has a new auditor working on getting the necessary filings up to snuff after the previous one left the job. While the company may survive with a revised accounting plan, it may result in downward analyst revisions for 2025 and 2026 earnings. Those analyst growth expectations are the entire enchilada of what makes Super Micro &#34;cheap&#34;.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Let&#39;s look at the fundamental case.</p><h2 id=\"id_1670664673\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The fundamental case</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/744168dbcb3c552ffdd4c91ad2f92088\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">First and foremost, although Super Micro is in the &#34;AI&#34; space, this is not a big gross margin industry. We can observe from the above that cyclical server rack margins are somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16% and are pretty typical for this business.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Secondly, there is coming competition in the server rack space. Both Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) and Foxconn expect to be competitors from here on out along with others like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE). As we see gross margins collapsing a bit in the above chart, this could be due to added competition.</p><h3 id=\"id_74351232\" style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#39;s not as cheap as you think</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52c0df120daac274197307a409b5983b\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">At 19.28 X GAAP earnings, we can observe that this is a bit higher than the long-term average. Even though the company booked a lot more orders which led to the market lumping this in with the likes of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and others in the AI space, this is still a low-margin business that used to trade as such. In my opinion, the price it&#39;s at now is settling right back where it belongs from a long-term multiple perspective.</p><h3 id=\"id_1501907068\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Is there growth in the tank?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1199fb4dbd2275b3f4a79c93b412077\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"80\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Analysts expect a 32% growth rate in GAAP earnings between FY 2025 and FY 2026. If this is the case, and it turns out to be true, then yes, <strong>the company would be very undervalued</strong> in a GARP scenario looking at a fair PEG ratio valuation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#39;ve noted before that when I draw up PEG ratio models, I always put a cap of 25% growth on my expectations. This was advice from Peter Lynch that I consistently tout. With that being said, 32% breaks the 25% threshold so it would be reasonable to use 25 as our max multiplier here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Again, a fair value PEG ratio price target is simply the P/E divided by the growth rate [less the percent sign]. A ratio of 1 or less is a good deal and using the growth rate times the EPS will get you the PEG 1 value.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In this case, we would have:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>25 multiplier.</p></li><li><p>$3.75 2026 EPS.</p></li><li><p>25 X $3.75 = <strong>$93.75 fair price.</strong></p></li><li><p>Current price: $38.3.</p></li><li><p>Selling at 40.5% of fair value.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1760479849\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Will the numbers change?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">We don&#39;t know exactly what is in this submission to the Nasdaq to remain listed. It could contain several provisions where they have to restate revenue and possibly earnings that could throw all the analyst models out of whack. If there are lots of downward revisions to where the implied FWD growth rate drops to 10% or less, then I think the stock is not a great value regardless of remaining listed.</p><h2 id=\"id_2704747296\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Cooling systems</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5f551d23592d7ba24a2ebeeae5f5716\" alt=\"supermicro.com\" title=\"supermicro.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"/><span>supermicro.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Another bullish point about the company and the server rack space, in general, is all the new cooling tech coming online with the need to cool GPUs running LLMs [large language models]. The numbers Super Micro advertises are attractive, the question is if they can still be a cost leader while incorporating these more technologically advanced components that may hurt margins even further while competition is coming online.</p><h2 id=\"id_2365594761\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Balance sheet</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/959fb526fd3448e36adf99e7621fc45c\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One important thing that Super Micro did was beef up its balance sheet at the expense of investors. When the price shoots sky-high, it&#39;s not a terrible idea to dilute. The consistent practice does, however, make it more and more difficult to meet analyst per-share expectations.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With long-term debt only at 1.3 X cash and short-term investments and about 1.7X EBITDA, the balance sheet is healthy. All looks good on this front.</p><h2 id=\"id_1476947688\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks and summary</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I, personally, feel there is still too much risk involved in making a purchase. The value thesis is clear, 32% implied forward growth selling at only 11 X forward earnings, this would be a killer deal if true. The counterarguments are also just too great to ignore in my opinion. This is becoming a more and more commoditized product with not much product differentiation and I wouldn&#39;t expect growth rates over 25% to happen for very much longer, making long-term growth models difficult to ascertain.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Competition from Dell and Foxconn in an environment where Super Micro may only turn out to be a cost leader rather than a quality leader will quickly erode margins in my opinion. If the company is approved to stay on the Nasdaq and there are no significant enough changes to expect less than 20-25% growth from 2025 to 2026, then this is very undervalued.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This still sells at 3.5X book value, so the only reason I, personally, would be inclined to stick around with a delisting risk still hanging in the balance is if the market priced this for bankruptcy well under asset value net of long-term debt. The potential to buy a $90+ stock selling at $38, is an enormous potential ROI should everything go swimmingly. Remember you need two things to hit:</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>Stay on the NASDAQ.</p></li><li><p>Growth rate expectations remain largely unchanged.</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\">You have to weigh that risk-reward benefit for yourself and the potential makes this at least a <strong>hold</strong> rather than a sell. It&#39;s just not my personal cup of tea.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-27 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","SMCI":"超微电脑","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2486857052","content_text":"Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.The company's products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the \"AI\" space.All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.Can Super Micro make a comeback?I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro has submitted a plan to the Nasdaq to remain listed after delaying their 10-K filing, I decided to finally take a look.Interestingly, enough if delisted, this would be the second go around with the last one occurring in 2018. Will this time around be different? Is Super Micro really so undervalued right now that if they can remain on the Nasdaq the stock would skyrocket? Let's examine.Year-to-date performanceChartYear-to-date the company is not a poor performer. This still beats most stocks in the S&P500 from a year-to-date price return perspective.Off from all-time highChartBut from an all-time high perspective, this stock has been crushed. Down nearly -67% with the possible prospect of a delisting should the NASDAQ not accept their plan to remain in compliance with accounting regulations. It may still be an opportunity for the bold.This time Super Micro seems more nimble and has a new auditor working on getting the necessary filings up to snuff after the previous one left the job. While the company may survive with a revised accounting plan, it may result in downward analyst revisions for 2025 and 2026 earnings. Those analyst growth expectations are the entire enchilada of what makes Super Micro \"cheap\".Let's look at the fundamental case.The fundamental caseChartFirst and foremost, although Super Micro is in the \"AI\" space, this is not a big gross margin industry. We can observe from the above that cyclical server rack margins are somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16% and are pretty typical for this business.Secondly, there is coming competition in the server rack space. Both Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) and Foxconn expect to be competitors from here on out along with others like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE). As we see gross margins collapsing a bit in the above chart, this could be due to added competition.It's not as cheap as you thinkChartAt 19.28 X GAAP earnings, we can observe that this is a bit higher than the long-term average. Even though the company booked a lot more orders which led to the market lumping this in with the likes of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and others in the AI space, this is still a low-margin business that used to trade as such. In my opinion, the price it's at now is settling right back where it belongs from a long-term multiple perspective.Is there growth in the tank?Seeking AlphaAnalysts expect a 32% growth rate in GAAP earnings between FY 2025 and FY 2026. If this is the case, and it turns out to be true, then yes, the company would be very undervalued in a GARP scenario looking at a fair PEG ratio valuation.I've noted before that when I draw up PEG ratio models, I always put a cap of 25% growth on my expectations. This was advice from Peter Lynch that I consistently tout. With that being said, 32% breaks the 25% threshold so it would be reasonable to use 25 as our max multiplier here.Again, a fair value PEG ratio price target is simply the P/E divided by the growth rate [less the percent sign]. A ratio of 1 or less is a good deal and using the growth rate times the EPS will get you the PEG 1 value.In this case, we would have:25 multiplier.$3.75 2026 EPS.25 X $3.75 = $93.75 fair price.Current price: $38.3.Selling at 40.5% of fair value.Will the numbers change?We don't know exactly what is in this submission to the Nasdaq to remain listed. It could contain several provisions where they have to restate revenue and possibly earnings that could throw all the analyst models out of whack. If there are lots of downward revisions to where the implied FWD growth rate drops to 10% or less, then I think the stock is not a great value regardless of remaining listed.Cooling systemssupermicro.comAnother bullish point about the company and the server rack space, in general, is all the new cooling tech coming online with the need to cool GPUs running LLMs [large language models]. The numbers Super Micro advertises are attractive, the question is if they can still be a cost leader while incorporating these more technologically advanced components that may hurt margins even further while competition is coming online.Balance sheetChartOne important thing that Super Micro did was beef up its balance sheet at the expense of investors. When the price shoots sky-high, it's not a terrible idea to dilute. The consistent practice does, however, make it more and more difficult to meet analyst per-share expectations.With long-term debt only at 1.3 X cash and short-term investments and about 1.7X EBITDA, the balance sheet is healthy. All looks good on this front.Risks and summaryI, personally, feel there is still too much risk involved in making a purchase. The value thesis is clear, 32% implied forward growth selling at only 11 X forward earnings, this would be a killer deal if true. The counterarguments are also just too great to ignore in my opinion. This is becoming a more and more commoditized product with not much product differentiation and I wouldn't expect growth rates over 25% to happen for very much longer, making long-term growth models difficult to ascertain.Competition from Dell and Foxconn in an environment where Super Micro may only turn out to be a cost leader rather than a quality leader will quickly erode margins in my opinion. If the company is approved to stay on the Nasdaq and there are no significant enough changes to expect less than 20-25% growth from 2025 to 2026, then this is very undervalued.This still sells at 3.5X book value, so the only reason I, personally, would be inclined to stick around with a delisting risk still hanging in the balance is if the market priced this for bankruptcy well under asset value net of long-term debt. The potential to buy a $90+ stock selling at $38, is an enormous potential ROI should everything go swimmingly. Remember you need two things to hit:Stay on the NASDAQ.Growth rate expectations remain largely unchanged.You have to weigh that risk-reward benefit for yourself and the potential makes this at least a hold rather than a sell. It's just not my personal cup of tea.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373745919775048,"gmtCreate":1732287061790,"gmtModify":1732287066365,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/387e2db0850d71e5d028d1c6fe829fe6","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373745919775048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372829445218616,"gmtCreate":1732032794879,"gmtModify":1732032798540,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> short squeeze is coming&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> short squeeze is coming&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ short squeeze is coming [真香]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372829445218616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357515435692160,"gmtCreate":1728293594076,"gmtModify":1728416256741,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> ,test water again.","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> ,test water again.","text":"I opened $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ ,test water again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":57,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":25,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357515435692160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107191109887400","authorId":"4107191109887400","name":"Mywonderland","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76abe7a1566a58d9280c642611e6e694","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107191109887400","authorIdStr":"4107191109887400"},"content":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it","text":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it","html":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352979976912984,"gmtCreate":1727185857606,"gmtModify":1727357569376,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL\">$YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ,To test water.","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL\">$YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ,To test water.","text":"I opened $YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$ ,To test water.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352979976912984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314284104302648,"gmtCreate":1717760887414,"gmtModify":1717760891507,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$ </a> 😀","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$ </a> 😀","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$ 😀","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99d6ab06a400d8f2d9cd456397cbf0e3","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314284104302648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941487621,"gmtCreate":1680534864564,"gmtModify":1680534866910,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941487621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815088475,"gmtCreate":1630630311097,"gmtModify":1676530359941,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3 sep 2021","listText":"3 sep 2021","text":"3 sep 2021","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c874bd1ee1fc9679ad6e150e7b97914","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815088475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801309369,"gmtCreate":1627481463451,"gmtModify":1703490836982,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","listText":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","text":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801309369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140029228,"gmtCreate":1625620354764,"gmtModify":1703745008902,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140029228","repostId":"1141976116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141976116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625619930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141976116?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141976116","media":"新浪科技","summary":"维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。</p>\n<p>连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。</p>\n<p><b>资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00345\">维他奶国际</a>继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。</b></p>\n<p>迫于无奈，维他奶国际集团有限公司执行主席罗友礼昨日发布《致维他奶全体员工的一封信》。文章提到，集团对近日的争议事件开展了详细调查，并于昨日将私自撰写内部通告的员工辞退。</p>\n<p><b>线下店：厂家或承担数万元罚款</b></p>\n<p>一切源于一场恶性事件：7月1日晚，香港铜锣湾发生一起持刀袭警事件，施暴男子逃跑后自杀身亡。后经调查，证实该男子为香港维他奶采购部主任。而在一份网传内部通告显示，维他奶称该施暴男子“不幸逝世”，并对其家人“深切慰问”，引发网友愤怒和抵制。</p>\n<p>一场维他系产品下架风波席卷全国——从华南地区开始，广东是维他奶的主要市场，该地区各大超市率先下架产品。</p>\n<p>业内多位人士向新浪财经透露了维他奶现状。<b>“现在都卖不出去了，超市也下架了，消费者不买。对我们经销商来说，没有什么影响。因为饮料很多，这个不卖了卖别的，现在替代品很多。”</b>华东地区一位维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p>“之前一个月可以出货一千箱，现在正在脱手库存。“另一个维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c0d673131fe27568c47418bbcb9290\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e63a00957ff67b919430dedb7c67d7\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff607ba1740faa34799f457757f89a1\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"107\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>目前，这件事情的影响继续扩大。在美团上，以“维他”、“维他奶”为关键词，已经搜索不出相关产品。另外，盒马鲜生、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜、朴朴等平台，也已全面下架维他系产品。而艺人龚俊、任嘉伦工作室也连夜发布声明，宣布终止与品牌的一切合作。</p>\n<p><b>值得注意的是，快消品不同于服装、日用品等其他大众消费品，因为有保质期，且季节性较强，退货、下架带来的损失也特别大。</b>“KA渠道（重点客户需求量身定制的全方位营销服务）产品下架，渠道会找厂家补费用。这部分的风险都要由厂家来承担。罚款数额可能就是几万、几十万。”一位KA渠道负责人告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86172d493111cd11352b4da98edffac3\" tg-width=\"446\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是深耕多年的维他奶，也不会那么容易倒下。在部分地区，该产品依旧是“抢手货”。</p>\n<p>“我们有几千个线下，完全没有听过这个事情。目前还是卖的非常好，几百万的预购款打过去，都没有货可以发。这一车货拉过来，马上就没有了。”浙江一位维他奶代理商告诉新浪财经，目前维他奶事件并没有影响其市场维他奶的线下销量。</p>\n<p><b>无独有偶，新浪财经在华北多家线下夫妻店、便利店看到，维他系产品仍然正常售卖，店主也没有听闻维他奶最近的争议事件。</b></p>\n<p>“线下夫妻店是反应最慢的，很多老板年纪也比较大。如果真得动根到这个群体，那也是撼动老根了。”一位快消界业内人士评论道。新浪财经了解到，不少三、四线城市，目前还没有受到本次事件的影响。这也侧面反映出，维他奶深耕市场多年，积攒的渠道不容小觑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a689bad30a33b611b37c6ac68b4cf6\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>赛道拥挤：植物基市场迎“内卷”压力</b></p>\n<p>6月17日，维他奶国际发布了2020-2021财年业绩报告，截至2021年3月31日，公司收入同比增加4%至75.2亿港元。维他奶国际表示：“收入增长主要归功于中国内地市场表现，后者仍是这家公司的最大市场。”经新浪财经计算，维他奶国际2020-2021财年收入的66.6%来自内地市场。</p>\n<p>事实上，自2009年维他奶占据了即饮常温豆奶市场的头把交椅之后，<b>在很长的一段时间里，维他奶都曾是为数不多的全国性即饮豆奶品牌，在行业内的龙头地位，长期难以动摇。</b></p>\n<p>维他奶CEO钟廷毅此前曾在2020年双十一后表示，\" 维他奶在各大电商平台的植物蛋白饮料类目和茶饮料类目中均位列第一，是当之无愧的全网饮料第一。\"2021 年 618，维他奶继续拿下天猫茶饮料类目和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>饮料品牌销售榜单双料第一名。</p>\n<p>虽然维他奶都具有强大竞争力，但是这个赛道依然很拥挤。</p>\n<p>业内人士分析，<b>目前的国内的豆奶市场，进入门槛比较低、同质化比较严重、市场的集中度不够，时刻都面临着重新洗牌的危机。</b></p>\n<p>这几年，觊觎豆奶市场的传统巨头企业越来越多。</p>\n<p>2017年4月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03799\">达利食品</a>推出了战略级的新品豆本豆，并寄希望在豆奶这个品类实现第一品牌的市场卡位；同年年底，伊利集团推出了即饮豆奶新品——植选浓香豆乳，正式入局豆奶市场。2018年，统一豆奶新品“诚实豆”正式市场，产品主打不添加防腐剂。</p>\n<p>其实豆奶是一个小品类领域，其背后是整个植物奶大品类。在这个类目下，六个核桃、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000848\">承德露露</a>早就已经盘踞多年，深耕北方市场。</p>\n<p>而随着这几年植物基大热，新兴品牌相继涌入。主打低脂、环保的Oatly燕麦奶已经在5月底上市，成为“植物奶第一股”，市值近千亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>资本圈展开对植物基领域的追逐，今年2月，每日盒子宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，又在6月24日传出完成近千万元天使+轮融资；4月，可可满分宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，植物标签获得6000万元天使+轮融资……据新浪财经不完全统计，今年以来，植物基饮品赛道至少完成7起融资事件。</p>\n<p>此外，其他赛道的快消品牌们也在不断加速布局。近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002557\">洽洽食品</a>表示，今年会考虑投放坚果乳；上周，今麦郎董事长范现国更公开表示公司将入局植物基饮料市场。</p>\n<p>“最近连土豆奶都出现了，植物基市场‘内卷’的厉害”，一位植物基外企市场部高管告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p>正如前述维他奶经销商所言，现在饮料很多，维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。在维他奶另一大单品——维他柠檬茶的领域，也时刻面临着阳光柠檬茶、小茗同学等竞品的追逐。</p>\n<p>维他奶也许有任性的资本，但是投票权永远掌握在消费者手中。</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 09:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。\n资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，维他奶国际继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。\n迫于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75fc89a0355514fec757329b0e6af08","relate_stocks":{"00345":"维他奶国际"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141976116","content_text":"维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。\n资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，维他奶国际继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。\n迫于无奈，维他奶国际集团有限公司执行主席罗友礼昨日发布《致维他奶全体员工的一封信》。文章提到，集团对近日的争议事件开展了详细调查，并于昨日将私自撰写内部通告的员工辞退。\n线下店：厂家或承担数万元罚款\n一切源于一场恶性事件：7月1日晚，香港铜锣湾发生一起持刀袭警事件，施暴男子逃跑后自杀身亡。后经调查，证实该男子为香港维他奶采购部主任。而在一份网传内部通告显示，维他奶称该施暴男子“不幸逝世”，并对其家人“深切慰问”，引发网友愤怒和抵制。\n一场维他系产品下架风波席卷全国——从华南地区开始，广东是维他奶的主要市场，该地区各大超市率先下架产品。\n业内多位人士向新浪财经透露了维他奶现状。“现在都卖不出去了，超市也下架了，消费者不买。对我们经销商来说，没有什么影响。因为饮料很多，这个不卖了卖别的，现在替代品很多。”华东地区一位维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。\n“之前一个月可以出货一千箱，现在正在脱手库存。“另一个维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。\n\n目前，这件事情的影响继续扩大。在美团上，以“维他”、“维他奶”为关键词，已经搜索不出相关产品。另外，盒马鲜生、叮咚买菜、朴朴等平台，也已全面下架维他系产品。而艺人龚俊、任嘉伦工作室也连夜发布声明，宣布终止与品牌的一切合作。\n值得注意的是，快消品不同于服装、日用品等其他大众消费品，因为有保质期，且季节性较强，退货、下架带来的损失也特别大。“KA渠道（重点客户需求量身定制的全方位营销服务）产品下架，渠道会找厂家补费用。这部分的风险都要由厂家来承担。罚款数额可能就是几万、几十万。”一位KA渠道负责人告诉新浪财经。\n\n但是深耕多年的维他奶，也不会那么容易倒下。在部分地区，该产品依旧是“抢手货”。\n“我们有几千个线下，完全没有听过这个事情。目前还是卖的非常好，几百万的预购款打过去，都没有货可以发。这一车货拉过来，马上就没有了。”浙江一位维他奶代理商告诉新浪财经，目前维他奶事件并没有影响其市场维他奶的线下销量。\n无独有偶，新浪财经在华北多家线下夫妻店、便利店看到，维他系产品仍然正常售卖，店主也没有听闻维他奶最近的争议事件。\n“线下夫妻店是反应最慢的，很多老板年纪也比较大。如果真得动根到这个群体，那也是撼动老根了。”一位快消界业内人士评论道。新浪财经了解到，不少三、四线城市，目前还没有受到本次事件的影响。这也侧面反映出，维他奶深耕市场多年，积攒的渠道不容小觑。\n\n赛道拥挤：植物基市场迎“内卷”压力\n6月17日，维他奶国际发布了2020-2021财年业绩报告，截至2021年3月31日，公司收入同比增加4%至75.2亿港元。维他奶国际表示：“收入增长主要归功于中国内地市场表现，后者仍是这家公司的最大市场。”经新浪财经计算，维他奶国际2020-2021财年收入的66.6%来自内地市场。\n事实上，自2009年维他奶占据了即饮常温豆奶市场的头把交椅之后，在很长的一段时间里，维他奶都曾是为数不多的全国性即饮豆奶品牌，在行业内的龙头地位，长期难以动摇。\n维他奶CEO钟廷毅此前曾在2020年双十一后表示，\" 维他奶在各大电商平台的植物蛋白饮料类目和茶饮料类目中均位列第一，是当之无愧的全网饮料第一。\"2021 年 618，维他奶继续拿下天猫茶饮料类目和京东饮料品牌销售榜单双料第一名。\n虽然维他奶都具有强大竞争力，但是这个赛道依然很拥挤。\n业内人士分析，目前的国内的豆奶市场，进入门槛比较低、同质化比较严重、市场的集中度不够，时刻都面临着重新洗牌的危机。\n这几年，觊觎豆奶市场的传统巨头企业越来越多。\n2017年4月，达利食品推出了战略级的新品豆本豆，并寄希望在豆奶这个品类实现第一品牌的市场卡位；同年年底，伊利集团推出了即饮豆奶新品——植选浓香豆乳，正式入局豆奶市场。2018年，统一豆奶新品“诚实豆”正式市场，产品主打不添加防腐剂。\n其实豆奶是一个小品类领域，其背后是整个植物奶大品类。在这个类目下，六个核桃、承德露露早就已经盘踞多年，深耕北方市场。\n而随着这几年植物基大热，新兴品牌相继涌入。主打低脂、环保的Oatly燕麦奶已经在5月底上市，成为“植物奶第一股”，市值近千亿元人民币。\n资本圈展开对植物基领域的追逐，今年2月，每日盒子宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，又在6月24日传出完成近千万元天使+轮融资；4月，可可满分宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，植物标签获得6000万元天使+轮融资……据新浪财经不完全统计，今年以来，植物基饮品赛道至少完成7起融资事件。\n此外，其他赛道的快消品牌们也在不断加速布局。近日，洽洽食品表示，今年会考虑投放坚果乳；上周，今麦郎董事长范现国更公开表示公司将入局植物基饮料市场。\n“最近连土豆奶都出现了，植物基市场‘内卷’的厉害”，一位植物基外企市场部高管告诉新浪财经。\n正如前述维他奶经销商所言，现在饮料很多，维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。在维他奶另一大单品——维他柠檬茶的领域，也时刻面临着阳光柠檬茶、小茗同学等竞品的追逐。\n维他奶也许有任性的资本，但是投票权永远掌握在消费者手中。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379764523,"gmtCreate":1618796277662,"gmtModify":1704714955063,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379764523","repostId":"2128865144","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2128865144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618794174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128865144?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 09:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128865144","media":"CME","summary":"当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<strong>一、周度行情回顾</strong><br/>\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。<br/>\r\n图1：美国十年期国债周度行情<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090321190.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：文华财经 国际衍生品智库<br/>\r\n图2：美国2年、5年、10年期国债收益率<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090337467.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>二、基本面分析<br/>\r\n      </strong><strong>（1）</strong><strong>原油价格大幅提升带动美国3月PPI超预期、核心CPI回升。</strong>4月9日公布数据显示美国3月PPI环比增长1%，前值0.5%，预期0.5%，PPI同比增长4.2%，前值2.8%，预期3.8%；4月13日公布数据显示美国3月CPI环比增长0.6%，同比增长2.6%，核心CPI同比比增长1.6%，环比增长0.3%。美国3月CPI略超预期、PPI大幅超出市场预期，显示美国经济延续修复和改善、生产端价格修复加快。从CPI分项来看，能源价格和交通运输价格上涨带动CPI上行，住宅、商品与服务小幅上行，核心CPI距离通胀目标仍有上行空间。从PPI分项来看，能源价格同比大幅增长是带动3月PPI超预期的主要项目，同时扣除食品和能源价格的核心PPI同比回升，也显示了经济生产端的修复和价格上行。<br/>\r\n图3：美国通货膨胀<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090404378.png\"/><br/>\n<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090827677.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<strong>     </strong><strong> （2）刺激计划落地以及疫苗接种推广支撑经济重启，美国3月零售销售超出市场预期，可选消费改善明显。</strong>4月15日公布数据显示美国3月零售销售月率环比增长9.8%，前值-2.7%、预期5.9%，大幅超出市场预期。从零售销售分项数据来看，所有分项环比2月均有明显改善，其中食品服务、机动车辆零部件、电子和家用电器、建筑材料、服装及服装配饰、运动商品及业务爱好物品、日用品商场等板块改善幅度最大，随着疫苗接种的推广和针对居民的刺激计划落地，可选消费改善明显。<br/>\r\n图4：美国3月零售销售<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090615544.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<strong>      （3）</strong><strong>美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期。</strong>4月15日公布数据显示美国至4月10日当周初请失业金人数录得57.6万人，前值76.9万人，预期57.6万人，美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期，降至一年来最低水平，在疫苗接种推广和财政刺激计划的带动下，就业市场有明显的修复和改善，虽然当周初请失业金人数大幅下滑，但目前距疫情前的水平有一定的距离且失业率维持高位水平，短期内就业市场情况仍然是美联储考虑的重要指标。<br/>\r\n图5：美国当周初请失业金人数<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090624304.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\r\n       美国最新经济数据显示生产保持扩张、就业逐渐修复、服务业加速修复，消费有所改善，指向美国经济在新一轮刺激计划和疫苗接种推广的安排下逐渐修复，但失业率和通胀水平距离通胀目标仍然具有一定距离，支撑短期内美联储维持宽松政策，但由于PPI大幅度超出市场预期，通胀引发市场对美联储政策操作态度的关注，后续需要注意通胀水平的表现以及美联储的表态。<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>三、持仓分析</strong><br/>\r\n        截至4月13日当周，投机基金在CBOT10年期美国国债持有的净多单为30640张，前周净多持仓103369张，多头方较前周减少45634张，空头方较前周增加27095张，显示当前10年期美债市场多头势力占主导，但多头力量较上周有所减弱、空头开始入场。<br/>\r\n图6：CBOT10年期美债期货CFTC非商业持仓<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090656146.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>四、热点关注与行情展望</strong><br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>热点关注</strong>：欧洲央行公布利率决议、央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会，美国至4月17日当周初请失业金人数，美国3月成屋销售，美国3月谘商会领先指标，美国至4月16日当周EIA天然气库存，欧元区4月制造业、服务业PMI，美国4月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>制造业、服务业PMI，美国3月新屋销售。<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>行情展望</strong>：4月以来，随着经济数据和美联储货币政策纪要的落地以及一季报行情的开启，市场风险偏好回升，十年期美债阶段性企稳回升。从经济基本面来看，随着疫苗接种的推广和疫情得到有效防控的情况下，美国经济延续修复，制造业PMI保持扩张、就业改善、通胀加快回升，美债收益率上行是趋势；从宏观政策面来看，由于当前疫情反复就业市场仍待修复，美联储延续短期宽松，短期利率仍然位于相对低位，对十年前美债形成阶段性的支撑，但通胀加快回升引发美联储的关注，后续不排除美联储逐渐推出QE的可能性；从持仓水平能看，当前十年期美债总持仓多头力量占上风，但净多单持仓减少，空单开始入场，或限制十年前美债的上行空间。总体来看，长期角度，随着通胀回升、美联储逐渐退出宽松政策，十年前美债仍然具有下行空间，且净多单减少对美债上方形成压力；短期角度，市场风险偏好回升、叠加阶段性的宽松政策延续，对底部形成支撑，预计短期十年期美债或保持区间震荡运行，关注上方压力位132.815，关注支撑位130.800。<br/>\n<br/>\n<br/><br/><br/>免责条款<br/>\r\n本报告版权归“国际衍生品智库”所有。未经事先书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为“国际衍生品智库”，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 本报告基于我公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，但我公司及其研究人员对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。报告中的信息，以及所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我们不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。\r\n                            </div></body></html>","source":"sunedu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 09:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761><strong>CME</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、周度行情回顾\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f4194a6170df413b318136712477adde","article_id":"2128865144","content_text":"一、周度行情回顾\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。\r\n图1：美国十年期国债周度行情\n\r\n资料来源：文华财经 国际衍生品智库\r\n图2：美国2年、5年、10年期国债收益率\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n\n二、基本面分析\r\n      （1）原油价格大幅提升带动美国3月PPI超预期、核心CPI回升。4月9日公布数据显示美国3月PPI环比增长1%，前值0.5%，预期0.5%，PPI同比增长4.2%，前值2.8%，预期3.8%；4月13日公布数据显示美国3月CPI环比增长0.6%，同比增长2.6%，核心CPI同比比增长1.6%，环比增长0.3%。美国3月CPI略超预期、PPI大幅超出市场预期，显示美国经济延续修复和改善、生产端价格修复加快。从CPI分项来看，能源价格和交通运输价格上涨带动CPI上行，住宅、商品与服务小幅上行，核心CPI距离通胀目标仍有上行空间。从PPI分项来看，能源价格同比大幅增长是带动3月PPI超预期的主要项目，同时扣除食品和能源价格的核心PPI同比回升，也显示了经济生产端的修复和价格上行。\r\n图3：美国通货膨胀\n\n\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n      （2）刺激计划落地以及疫苗接种推广支撑经济重启，美国3月零售销售超出市场预期，可选消费改善明显。4月15日公布数据显示美国3月零售销售月率环比增长9.8%，前值-2.7%、预期5.9%，大幅超出市场预期。从零售销售分项数据来看，所有分项环比2月均有明显改善，其中食品服务、机动车辆零部件、电子和家用电器、建筑材料、服装及服装配饰、运动商品及业务爱好物品、日用品商场等板块改善幅度最大，随着疫苗接种的推广和针对居民的刺激计划落地，可选消费改善明显。\r\n图4：美国3月零售销售\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n      （3）美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期。4月15日公布数据显示美国至4月10日当周初请失业金人数录得57.6万人，前值76.9万人，预期57.6万人，美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期，降至一年来最低水平，在疫苗接种推广和财政刺激计划的带动下，就业市场有明显的修复和改善，虽然当周初请失业金人数大幅下滑，但目前距疫情前的水平有一定的距离且失业率维持高位水平，短期内就业市场情况仍然是美联储考虑的重要指标。\r\n图5：美国当周初请失业金人数\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\r\n       美国最新经济数据显示生产保持扩张、就业逐渐修复、服务业加速修复，消费有所改善，指向美国经济在新一轮刺激计划和疫苗接种推广的安排下逐渐修复，但失业率和通胀水平距离通胀目标仍然具有一定距离，支撑短期内美联储维持宽松政策，但由于PPI大幅度超出市场预期，通胀引发市场对美联储政策操作态度的关注，后续需要注意通胀水平的表现以及美联储的表态。\n\n三、持仓分析\r\n        截至4月13日当周，投机基金在CBOT10年期美国国债持有的净多单为30640张，前周净多持仓103369张，多头方较前周减少45634张，空头方较前周增加27095张，显示当前10年期美债市场多头势力占主导，但多头力量较上周有所减弱、空头开始入场。\r\n图6：CBOT10年期美债期货CFTC非商业持仓\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n\n四、热点关注与行情展望\n\n热点关注：欧洲央行公布利率决议、央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会，美国至4月17日当周初请失业金人数，美国3月成屋销售，美国3月谘商会领先指标，美国至4月16日当周EIA天然气库存，欧元区4月制造业、服务业PMI，美国4月Markit制造业、服务业PMI，美国3月新屋销售。\n\n行情展望：4月以来，随着经济数据和美联储货币政策纪要的落地以及一季报行情的开启，市场风险偏好回升，十年期美债阶段性企稳回升。从经济基本面来看，随着疫苗接种的推广和疫情得到有效防控的情况下，美国经济延续修复，制造业PMI保持扩张、就业改善、通胀加快回升，美债收益率上行是趋势；从宏观政策面来看，由于当前疫情反复就业市场仍待修复，美联储延续短期宽松，短期利率仍然位于相对低位，对十年前美债形成阶段性的支撑，但通胀加快回升引发美联储的关注，后续不排除美联储逐渐推出QE的可能性；从持仓水平能看，当前十年期美债总持仓多头力量占上风，但净多单持仓减少，空单开始入场，或限制十年前美债的上行空间。总体来看，长期角度，随着通胀回升、美联储逐渐退出宽松政策，十年前美债仍然具有下行空间，且净多单减少对美债上方形成压力；短期角度，市场风险偏好回升、叠加阶段性的宽松政策延续，对底部形成支撑，预计短期十年期美债或保持区间震荡运行，关注上方压力位132.815，关注支撑位130.800。\n\n免责条款\r\n本报告版权归“国际衍生品智库”所有。未经事先书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为“国际衍生品智库”，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 本报告基于我公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，但我公司及其研究人员对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。报告中的信息，以及所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我们不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370664068,"gmtCreate":1618581692154,"gmtModify":1704713064281,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>amazing","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>amazing","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370664068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342183915,"gmtCreate":1618190622437,"gmtModify":1704707262025,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$</a>for points","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$</a>for points","text":"$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$for points","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495e38a27be8229e232853e83a479568","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342183915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":357515435692160,"gmtCreate":1728293594076,"gmtModify":1728416256741,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> ,test water again.","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SOXL\">$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> ,test water again.","text":"I opened $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ ,test water again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":57,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":25,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/357515435692160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4107191109887400","authorId":"4107191109887400","name":"Mywonderland","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/76abe7a1566a58d9280c642611e6e694","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4107191109887400","authorIdStr":"4107191109887400"},"content":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it","text":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it","html":"Buy at this price, 👍 saw it, but still want to wait for another low point to miss it"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373745919775048,"gmtCreate":1732287061790,"gmtModify":1732287066365,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ Easy money，on the way to 40 -50 -60....","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/387e2db0850d71e5d028d1c6fe829fe6","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373745919775048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352979976912984,"gmtCreate":1727185857606,"gmtModify":1727357569376,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL\">$YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ,To test water.","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL\">$YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> ,To test water.","text":"I opened $YINN 20240927 31.0 CALL$ ,To test water.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352979976912984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801309369,"gmtCreate":1627481463451,"gmtModify":1703490836982,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","listText":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","text":"STraffic Chooses BlackBerry QNX OS for Safety for Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC)BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced that its QNX® OS for Safety will be deployed in sTraffic's Communications-based Train Control System (CBTC). sTraffic is South Korea's leading fit-for-purpose, solution developer for transportation infrastructure systems.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801309369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815088475,"gmtCreate":1630630311097,"gmtModify":1676530359941,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3 sep 2021","listText":"3 sep 2021","text":"3 sep 2021","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c874bd1ee1fc9679ad6e150e7b97914","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815088475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":314284104302648,"gmtCreate":1717760887414,"gmtModify":1717760891507,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$ </a> 😀","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$ </a> 😀","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$ 😀","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99d6ab06a400d8f2d9cd456397cbf0e3","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/314284104302648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140029228,"gmtCreate":1625620354764,"gmtModify":1703745008902,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140029228","repostId":"1141976116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141976116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625619930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141976116?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 09:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141976116","media":"新浪科技","summary":"维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。</p>\n<p>连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。</p>\n<p><b>资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00345\">维他奶国际</a>继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。</b></p>\n<p>迫于无奈，维他奶国际集团有限公司执行主席罗友礼昨日发布《致维他奶全体员工的一封信》。文章提到，集团对近日的争议事件开展了详细调查，并于昨日将私自撰写内部通告的员工辞退。</p>\n<p><b>线下店：厂家或承担数万元罚款</b></p>\n<p>一切源于一场恶性事件：7月1日晚，香港铜锣湾发生一起持刀袭警事件，施暴男子逃跑后自杀身亡。后经调查，证实该男子为香港维他奶采购部主任。而在一份网传内部通告显示，维他奶称该施暴男子“不幸逝世”，并对其家人“深切慰问”，引发网友愤怒和抵制。</p>\n<p>一场维他系产品下架风波席卷全国——从华南地区开始，广东是维他奶的主要市场，该地区各大超市率先下架产品。</p>\n<p>业内多位人士向新浪财经透露了维他奶现状。<b>“现在都卖不出去了，超市也下架了，消费者不买。对我们经销商来说，没有什么影响。因为饮料很多，这个不卖了卖别的，现在替代品很多。”</b>华东地区一位维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p>“之前一个月可以出货一千箱，现在正在脱手库存。“另一个维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c0d673131fe27568c47418bbcb9290\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e63a00957ff67b919430dedb7c67d7\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff607ba1740faa34799f457757f89a1\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"107\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>目前，这件事情的影响继续扩大。在美团上，以“维他”、“维他奶”为关键词，已经搜索不出相关产品。另外，盒马鲜生、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜、朴朴等平台，也已全面下架维他系产品。而艺人龚俊、任嘉伦工作室也连夜发布声明，宣布终止与品牌的一切合作。</p>\n<p><b>值得注意的是，快消品不同于服装、日用品等其他大众消费品，因为有保质期，且季节性较强，退货、下架带来的损失也特别大。</b>“KA渠道（重点客户需求量身定制的全方位营销服务）产品下架，渠道会找厂家补费用。这部分的风险都要由厂家来承担。罚款数额可能就是几万、几十万。”一位KA渠道负责人告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86172d493111cd11352b4da98edffac3\" tg-width=\"446\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是深耕多年的维他奶，也不会那么容易倒下。在部分地区，该产品依旧是“抢手货”。</p>\n<p>“我们有几千个线下，完全没有听过这个事情。目前还是卖的非常好，几百万的预购款打过去，都没有货可以发。这一车货拉过来，马上就没有了。”浙江一位维他奶代理商告诉新浪财经，目前维他奶事件并没有影响其市场维他奶的线下销量。</p>\n<p><b>无独有偶，新浪财经在华北多家线下夫妻店、便利店看到，维他系产品仍然正常售卖，店主也没有听闻维他奶最近的争议事件。</b></p>\n<p>“线下夫妻店是反应最慢的，很多老板年纪也比较大。如果真得动根到这个群体，那也是撼动老根了。”一位快消界业内人士评论道。新浪财经了解到，不少三、四线城市，目前还没有受到本次事件的影响。这也侧面反映出，维他奶深耕市场多年，积攒的渠道不容小觑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a689bad30a33b611b37c6ac68b4cf6\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>赛道拥挤：植物基市场迎“内卷”压力</b></p>\n<p>6月17日，维他奶国际发布了2020-2021财年业绩报告，截至2021年3月31日，公司收入同比增加4%至75.2亿港元。维他奶国际表示：“收入增长主要归功于中国内地市场表现，后者仍是这家公司的最大市场。”经新浪财经计算，维他奶国际2020-2021财年收入的66.6%来自内地市场。</p>\n<p>事实上，自2009年维他奶占据了即饮常温豆奶市场的头把交椅之后，<b>在很长的一段时间里，维他奶都曾是为数不多的全国性即饮豆奶品牌，在行业内的龙头地位，长期难以动摇。</b></p>\n<p>维他奶CEO钟廷毅此前曾在2020年双十一后表示，\" 维他奶在各大电商平台的植物蛋白饮料类目和茶饮料类目中均位列第一，是当之无愧的全网饮料第一。\"2021 年 618，维他奶继续拿下天猫茶饮料类目和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>饮料品牌销售榜单双料第一名。</p>\n<p>虽然维他奶都具有强大竞争力，但是这个赛道依然很拥挤。</p>\n<p>业内人士分析，<b>目前的国内的豆奶市场，进入门槛比较低、同质化比较严重、市场的集中度不够，时刻都面临着重新洗牌的危机。</b></p>\n<p>这几年，觊觎豆奶市场的传统巨头企业越来越多。</p>\n<p>2017年4月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03799\">达利食品</a>推出了战略级的新品豆本豆，并寄希望在豆奶这个品类实现第一品牌的市场卡位；同年年底，伊利集团推出了即饮豆奶新品——植选浓香豆乳，正式入局豆奶市场。2018年，统一豆奶新品“诚实豆”正式市场，产品主打不添加防腐剂。</p>\n<p>其实豆奶是一个小品类领域，其背后是整个植物奶大品类。在这个类目下，六个核桃、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000848\">承德露露</a>早就已经盘踞多年，深耕北方市场。</p>\n<p>而随着这几年植物基大热，新兴品牌相继涌入。主打低脂、环保的Oatly燕麦奶已经在5月底上市，成为“植物奶第一股”，市值近千亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>资本圈展开对植物基领域的追逐，今年2月，每日盒子宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，又在6月24日传出完成近千万元天使+轮融资；4月，可可满分宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，植物标签获得6000万元天使+轮融资……据新浪财经不完全统计，今年以来，植物基饮品赛道至少完成7起融资事件。</p>\n<p>此外，其他赛道的快消品牌们也在不断加速布局。近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002557\">洽洽食品</a>表示，今年会考虑投放坚果乳；上周，今麦郎董事长范现国更公开表示公司将入局植物基饮料市场。</p>\n<p>“最近连土豆奶都出现了，植物基市场‘内卷’的厉害”，一位植物基外企市场部高管告诉新浪财经。</p>\n<p>正如前述维他奶经销商所言，现在饮料很多，维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。在维他奶另一大单品——维他柠檬茶的领域，也时刻面临着阳光柠檬茶、小茗同学等竞品的追逐。</p>\n<p>维他奶也许有任性的资本，但是投票权永远掌握在消费者手中。</p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n维他奶“大撤退”：厂家或面临巨额罚款，赛道严重内卷\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 09:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。\n资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，维他奶国际继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。\n迫于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75fc89a0355514fec757329b0e6af08","relate_stocks":{"00345":"维他奶国际"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Cfcyw26H8kEM7DVIa5UrLQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141976116","content_text":"维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。\n\n因对员工事件言论不当，维他奶站上了舆论的风口浪尖。\n连日来，多地超市先后下架维他系产品。有经销商直言：“替代品很多，不卖他卖别的”。另有业内人士指出，KA渠道产品下架，罚款要由厂家来承担，“可能要罚几万甚至几十万”。\n资本市场同样给予了沉重打击，维他奶国际继7月5日大跌11.7%之后，昨日继续下挫，最终报收25.90港元/股，较2020年最高点时缩水近四成。\n迫于无奈，维他奶国际集团有限公司执行主席罗友礼昨日发布《致维他奶全体员工的一封信》。文章提到，集团对近日的争议事件开展了详细调查，并于昨日将私自撰写内部通告的员工辞退。\n线下店：厂家或承担数万元罚款\n一切源于一场恶性事件：7月1日晚，香港铜锣湾发生一起持刀袭警事件，施暴男子逃跑后自杀身亡。后经调查，证实该男子为香港维他奶采购部主任。而在一份网传内部通告显示，维他奶称该施暴男子“不幸逝世”，并对其家人“深切慰问”，引发网友愤怒和抵制。\n一场维他系产品下架风波席卷全国——从华南地区开始，广东是维他奶的主要市场，该地区各大超市率先下架产品。\n业内多位人士向新浪财经透露了维他奶现状。“现在都卖不出去了，超市也下架了，消费者不买。对我们经销商来说，没有什么影响。因为饮料很多，这个不卖了卖别的，现在替代品很多。”华东地区一位维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。\n“之前一个月可以出货一千箱，现在正在脱手库存。“另一个维他奶经销商告诉新浪财经。\n\n目前，这件事情的影响继续扩大。在美团上，以“维他”、“维他奶”为关键词，已经搜索不出相关产品。另外，盒马鲜生、叮咚买菜、朴朴等平台，也已全面下架维他系产品。而艺人龚俊、任嘉伦工作室也连夜发布声明，宣布终止与品牌的一切合作。\n值得注意的是，快消品不同于服装、日用品等其他大众消费品，因为有保质期，且季节性较强，退货、下架带来的损失也特别大。“KA渠道（重点客户需求量身定制的全方位营销服务）产品下架，渠道会找厂家补费用。这部分的风险都要由厂家来承担。罚款数额可能就是几万、几十万。”一位KA渠道负责人告诉新浪财经。\n\n但是深耕多年的维他奶，也不会那么容易倒下。在部分地区，该产品依旧是“抢手货”。\n“我们有几千个线下，完全没有听过这个事情。目前还是卖的非常好，几百万的预购款打过去，都没有货可以发。这一车货拉过来，马上就没有了。”浙江一位维他奶代理商告诉新浪财经，目前维他奶事件并没有影响其市场维他奶的线下销量。\n无独有偶，新浪财经在华北多家线下夫妻店、便利店看到，维他系产品仍然正常售卖，店主也没有听闻维他奶最近的争议事件。\n“线下夫妻店是反应最慢的，很多老板年纪也比较大。如果真得动根到这个群体，那也是撼动老根了。”一位快消界业内人士评论道。新浪财经了解到，不少三、四线城市，目前还没有受到本次事件的影响。这也侧面反映出，维他奶深耕市场多年，积攒的渠道不容小觑。\n\n赛道拥挤：植物基市场迎“内卷”压力\n6月17日，维他奶国际发布了2020-2021财年业绩报告，截至2021年3月31日，公司收入同比增加4%至75.2亿港元。维他奶国际表示：“收入增长主要归功于中国内地市场表现，后者仍是这家公司的最大市场。”经新浪财经计算，维他奶国际2020-2021财年收入的66.6%来自内地市场。\n事实上，自2009年维他奶占据了即饮常温豆奶市场的头把交椅之后，在很长的一段时间里，维他奶都曾是为数不多的全国性即饮豆奶品牌，在行业内的龙头地位，长期难以动摇。\n维他奶CEO钟廷毅此前曾在2020年双十一后表示，\" 维他奶在各大电商平台的植物蛋白饮料类目和茶饮料类目中均位列第一，是当之无愧的全网饮料第一。\"2021 年 618，维他奶继续拿下天猫茶饮料类目和京东饮料品牌销售榜单双料第一名。\n虽然维他奶都具有强大竞争力，但是这个赛道依然很拥挤。\n业内人士分析，目前的国内的豆奶市场，进入门槛比较低、同质化比较严重、市场的集中度不够，时刻都面临着重新洗牌的危机。\n这几年，觊觎豆奶市场的传统巨头企业越来越多。\n2017年4月，达利食品推出了战略级的新品豆本豆，并寄希望在豆奶这个品类实现第一品牌的市场卡位；同年年底，伊利集团推出了即饮豆奶新品——植选浓香豆乳，正式入局豆奶市场。2018年，统一豆奶新品“诚实豆”正式市场，产品主打不添加防腐剂。\n其实豆奶是一个小品类领域，其背后是整个植物奶大品类。在这个类目下，六个核桃、承德露露早就已经盘踞多年，深耕北方市场。\n而随着这几年植物基大热，新兴品牌相继涌入。主打低脂、环保的Oatly燕麦奶已经在5月底上市，成为“植物奶第一股”，市值近千亿元人民币。\n资本圈展开对植物基领域的追逐，今年2月，每日盒子宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，又在6月24日传出完成近千万元天使+轮融资；4月，可可满分宣布完成数百万元天使轮融资，植物标签获得6000万元天使+轮融资……据新浪财经不完全统计，今年以来，植物基饮品赛道至少完成7起融资事件。\n此外，其他赛道的快消品牌们也在不断加速布局。近日，洽洽食品表示，今年会考虑投放坚果乳；上周，今麦郎董事长范现国更公开表示公司将入局植物基饮料市场。\n“最近连土豆奶都出现了，植物基市场‘内卷’的厉害”，一位植物基外企市场部高管告诉新浪财经。\n正如前述维他奶经销商所言，现在饮料很多，维他奶并不是消费者唯一的选择。在维他奶另一大单品——维他柠檬茶的领域，也时刻面临着阳光柠檬茶、小茗同学等竞品的追逐。\n维他奶也许有任性的资本，但是投票权永远掌握在消费者手中。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377281564889424,"gmtCreate":1733148908934,"gmtModify":1733149660103,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> looks like short squeeze really is coming&nbsp;[哟哟]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> looks like short squeeze really is coming&nbsp;[哟哟]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ looks like short squeeze really is coming [哟哟]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377281564889424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342183915,"gmtCreate":1618190622437,"gmtModify":1704707262025,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$</a>for points","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$</a>for points","text":"$PLTR 20210416 23.0 PUT(PLTR)$for points","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495e38a27be8229e232853e83a479568","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342183915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372829445218616,"gmtCreate":1732032794879,"gmtModify":1732032798540,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> short squeeze is coming&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> short squeeze is coming&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ short squeeze is coming [真香]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372829445218616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375493577449584,"gmtCreate":1732691718648,"gmtModify":1732691721869,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375493577449584","repostId":"2486857052","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2486857052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732678854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2486857052?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-27 11:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486857052","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.The company's products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the \"AI\" space.All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.   Thomas Barwick  Can Super Micro make a comeback?I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc.  but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.</p></li><li><p>Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.</p></li><li><p>The company&#39;s products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the &#34;AI&#34; space.</p></li><li><p>All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20e68a708dffe837186b201c8944c5de\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2622593126\">Can Super Micro make a comeback?</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro has submitted a plan to the Nasdaq to remain listed after delaying their 10-K filing, I decided to finally take a look.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Interestingly, enough if delisted, this would be the second go around with the last one occurring in 2018. Will this time around be different? Is Super Micro really so undervalued right now that if they can remain on the Nasdaq the stock would skyrocket? Let&#39;s examine.</p><h2 id=\"id_3031578311\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Year-to-date performance</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c865f6fd0f40fbf8551fd4eb9da4003d\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Year-to-date the company is not a poor performer. This still beats most stocks in the S&amp;P500 from a year-to-date price return perspective.</p><h3 id=\"id_668915982\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Off from all-time high</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8238b9ace26cf559a64122fec498d42d\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">But from an all-time high perspective, this stock has been crushed. Down nearly -67% with the possible prospect of a delisting should the NASDAQ not accept their plan to remain in compliance with accounting regulations. It may still be an opportunity for the bold.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This time Super Micro seems more nimble and has a new auditor working on getting the necessary filings up to snuff after the previous one left the job. While the company may survive with a revised accounting plan, it may result in downward analyst revisions for 2025 and 2026 earnings. Those analyst growth expectations are the entire enchilada of what makes Super Micro &#34;cheap&#34;.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Let&#39;s look at the fundamental case.</p><h2 id=\"id_1670664673\" style=\"text-align: left;\">The fundamental case</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/744168dbcb3c552ffdd4c91ad2f92088\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">First and foremost, although Super Micro is in the &#34;AI&#34; space, this is not a big gross margin industry. We can observe from the above that cyclical server rack margins are somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16% and are pretty typical for this business.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Secondly, there is coming competition in the server rack space. Both Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) and Foxconn expect to be competitors from here on out along with others like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE). As we see gross margins collapsing a bit in the above chart, this could be due to added competition.</p><h3 id=\"id_74351232\" style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#39;s not as cheap as you think</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52c0df120daac274197307a409b5983b\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">At 19.28 X GAAP earnings, we can observe that this is a bit higher than the long-term average. Even though the company booked a lot more orders which led to the market lumping this in with the likes of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and others in the AI space, this is still a low-margin business that used to trade as such. In my opinion, the price it&#39;s at now is settling right back where it belongs from a long-term multiple perspective.</p><h3 id=\"id_1501907068\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Is there growth in the tank?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1199fb4dbd2275b3f4a79c93b412077\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"80\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Analysts expect a 32% growth rate in GAAP earnings between FY 2025 and FY 2026. If this is the case, and it turns out to be true, then yes, <strong>the company would be very undervalued</strong> in a GARP scenario looking at a fair PEG ratio valuation.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#39;ve noted before that when I draw up PEG ratio models, I always put a cap of 25% growth on my expectations. This was advice from Peter Lynch that I consistently tout. With that being said, 32% breaks the 25% threshold so it would be reasonable to use 25 as our max multiplier here.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Again, a fair value PEG ratio price target is simply the P/E divided by the growth rate [less the percent sign]. A ratio of 1 or less is a good deal and using the growth rate times the EPS will get you the PEG 1 value.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In this case, we would have:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>25 multiplier.</p></li><li><p>$3.75 2026 EPS.</p></li><li><p>25 X $3.75 = <strong>$93.75 fair price.</strong></p></li><li><p>Current price: $38.3.</p></li><li><p>Selling at 40.5% of fair value.</p></li></ul><h3 id=\"id_1760479849\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Will the numbers change?</h3><p style=\"text-align: left;\">We don&#39;t know exactly what is in this submission to the Nasdaq to remain listed. It could contain several provisions where they have to restate revenue and possibly earnings that could throw all the analyst models out of whack. If there are lots of downward revisions to where the implied FWD growth rate drops to 10% or less, then I think the stock is not a great value regardless of remaining listed.</p><h2 id=\"id_2704747296\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Cooling systems</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5f551d23592d7ba24a2ebeeae5f5716\" alt=\"supermicro.com\" title=\"supermicro.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"/><span>supermicro.com</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Another bullish point about the company and the server rack space, in general, is all the new cooling tech coming online with the need to cool GPUs running LLMs [large language models]. The numbers Super Micro advertises are attractive, the question is if they can still be a cost leader while incorporating these more technologically advanced components that may hurt margins even further while competition is coming online.</p><h2 id=\"id_2365594761\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Balance sheet</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/959fb526fd3448e36adf99e7621fc45c\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">One important thing that Super Micro did was beef up its balance sheet at the expense of investors. When the price shoots sky-high, it&#39;s not a terrible idea to dilute. The consistent practice does, however, make it more and more difficult to meet analyst per-share expectations.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">With long-term debt only at 1.3 X cash and short-term investments and about 1.7X EBITDA, the balance sheet is healthy. All looks good on this front.</p><h2 id=\"id_1476947688\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Risks and summary</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">I, personally, feel there is still too much risk involved in making a purchase. The value thesis is clear, 32% implied forward growth selling at only 11 X forward earnings, this would be a killer deal if true. The counterarguments are also just too great to ignore in my opinion. This is becoming a more and more commoditized product with not much product differentiation and I wouldn&#39;t expect growth rates over 25% to happen for very much longer, making long-term growth models difficult to ascertain.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Competition from Dell and Foxconn in an environment where Super Micro may only turn out to be a cost leader rather than a quality leader will quickly erode margins in my opinion. If the company is approved to stay on the Nasdaq and there are no significant enough changes to expect less than 20-25% growth from 2025 to 2026, then this is very undervalued.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This still sells at 3.5X book value, so the only reason I, personally, would be inclined to stick around with a delisting risk still hanging in the balance is if the market priced this for bankruptcy well under asset value net of long-term debt. The potential to buy a $90+ stock selling at $38, is an enormous potential ROI should everything go swimmingly. Remember you need two things to hit:</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>Stay on the NASDAQ.</p></li><li><p>Growth rate expectations remain largely unchanged.</p></li></ol><p style=\"text-align: left;\">You have to weigh that risk-reward benefit for yourself and the potential makes this at least a <strong>hold</strong> rather than a sell. It&#39;s just not my personal cup of tea.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: Analyzing The Stock's Growth Potential, Risks, And Rewards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-27 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","SMCI":"超微电脑","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740447-super-micro-computer-analyzing-the-stocks-growth-potential-risks-and-rewards","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2486857052","content_text":"Super Micro faces potential delisting should a Nasdaq plan to remain listed not be approved.Despite a promising 32% growth forecast for 2025-2026, competition and potential restatements of revenue and earnings pose significant risks.The company's products are also becoming more commoditized and remain far lower gross margin products than others in the \"AI\" space.All being said, there could be massive reward for investors should the company both remain listed and future earnings trajectories remain unchanged.Can Super Micro make a comeback?I have been tempted for some time to take a closer look at Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) but never pulled the trigger. With the latest news that Super Micro has submitted a plan to the Nasdaq to remain listed after delaying their 10-K filing, I decided to finally take a look.Interestingly, enough if delisted, this would be the second go around with the last one occurring in 2018. Will this time around be different? Is Super Micro really so undervalued right now that if they can remain on the Nasdaq the stock would skyrocket? Let's examine.Year-to-date performanceChartYear-to-date the company is not a poor performer. This still beats most stocks in the S&P500 from a year-to-date price return perspective.Off from all-time highChartBut from an all-time high perspective, this stock has been crushed. Down nearly -67% with the possible prospect of a delisting should the NASDAQ not accept their plan to remain in compliance with accounting regulations. It may still be an opportunity for the bold.This time Super Micro seems more nimble and has a new auditor working on getting the necessary filings up to snuff after the previous one left the job. While the company may survive with a revised accounting plan, it may result in downward analyst revisions for 2025 and 2026 earnings. Those analyst growth expectations are the entire enchilada of what makes Super Micro \"cheap\".Let's look at the fundamental case.The fundamental caseChartFirst and foremost, although Super Micro is in the \"AI\" space, this is not a big gross margin industry. We can observe from the above that cyclical server rack margins are somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-16% and are pretty typical for this business.Secondly, there is coming competition in the server rack space. Both Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) and Foxconn expect to be competitors from here on out along with others like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE). As we see gross margins collapsing a bit in the above chart, this could be due to added competition.It's not as cheap as you thinkChartAt 19.28 X GAAP earnings, we can observe that this is a bit higher than the long-term average. Even though the company booked a lot more orders which led to the market lumping this in with the likes of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and others in the AI space, this is still a low-margin business that used to trade as such. In my opinion, the price it's at now is settling right back where it belongs from a long-term multiple perspective.Is there growth in the tank?Seeking AlphaAnalysts expect a 32% growth rate in GAAP earnings between FY 2025 and FY 2026. If this is the case, and it turns out to be true, then yes, the company would be very undervalued in a GARP scenario looking at a fair PEG ratio valuation.I've noted before that when I draw up PEG ratio models, I always put a cap of 25% growth on my expectations. This was advice from Peter Lynch that I consistently tout. With that being said, 32% breaks the 25% threshold so it would be reasonable to use 25 as our max multiplier here.Again, a fair value PEG ratio price target is simply the P/E divided by the growth rate [less the percent sign]. A ratio of 1 or less is a good deal and using the growth rate times the EPS will get you the PEG 1 value.In this case, we would have:25 multiplier.$3.75 2026 EPS.25 X $3.75 = $93.75 fair price.Current price: $38.3.Selling at 40.5% of fair value.Will the numbers change?We don't know exactly what is in this submission to the Nasdaq to remain listed. It could contain several provisions where they have to restate revenue and possibly earnings that could throw all the analyst models out of whack. If there are lots of downward revisions to where the implied FWD growth rate drops to 10% or less, then I think the stock is not a great value regardless of remaining listed.Cooling systemssupermicro.comAnother bullish point about the company and the server rack space, in general, is all the new cooling tech coming online with the need to cool GPUs running LLMs [large language models]. The numbers Super Micro advertises are attractive, the question is if they can still be a cost leader while incorporating these more technologically advanced components that may hurt margins even further while competition is coming online.Balance sheetChartOne important thing that Super Micro did was beef up its balance sheet at the expense of investors. When the price shoots sky-high, it's not a terrible idea to dilute. The consistent practice does, however, make it more and more difficult to meet analyst per-share expectations.With long-term debt only at 1.3 X cash and short-term investments and about 1.7X EBITDA, the balance sheet is healthy. All looks good on this front.Risks and summaryI, personally, feel there is still too much risk involved in making a purchase. The value thesis is clear, 32% implied forward growth selling at only 11 X forward earnings, this would be a killer deal if true. The counterarguments are also just too great to ignore in my opinion. This is becoming a more and more commoditized product with not much product differentiation and I wouldn't expect growth rates over 25% to happen for very much longer, making long-term growth models difficult to ascertain.Competition from Dell and Foxconn in an environment where Super Micro may only turn out to be a cost leader rather than a quality leader will quickly erode margins in my opinion. If the company is approved to stay on the Nasdaq and there are no significant enough changes to expect less than 20-25% growth from 2025 to 2026, then this is very undervalued.This still sells at 3.5X book value, so the only reason I, personally, would be inclined to stick around with a delisting risk still hanging in the balance is if the market priced this for bankruptcy well under asset value net of long-term debt. The potential to buy a $90+ stock selling at $38, is an enormous potential ROI should everything go swimmingly. Remember you need two things to hit:Stay on the NASDAQ.Growth rate expectations remain largely unchanged.You have to weigh that risk-reward benefit for yourself and the potential makes this at least a hold rather than a sell. It's just not my personal cup of tea.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370664068,"gmtCreate":1618581692154,"gmtModify":1704713064281,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>amazing","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>amazing","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/370664068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378667589251120,"gmtCreate":1733484697111,"gmtModify":1733484699842,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BITO\">$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BITO\">$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/378667589251120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941487621,"gmtCreate":1680534864564,"gmtModify":1680534866910,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941487621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379764523,"gmtCreate":1618796277662,"gmtModify":1704714955063,"author":{"id":"3569807003989803","authorId":"3569807003989803","name":"财运亨通666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385f430c55412c3f26906b28fdc08a4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569807003989803","authorIdStr":"3569807003989803"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/379764523","repostId":"2128865144","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2128865144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618794174,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128865144?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 09:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128865144","media":"CME","summary":"当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<strong>一、周度行情回顾</strong><br/>\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。<br/>\r\n图1：美国十年期国债周度行情<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090321190.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：文华财经 国际衍生品智库<br/>\r\n图2：美国2年、5年、10年期国债收益率<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090337467.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>二、基本面分析<br/>\r\n      </strong><strong>（1）</strong><strong>原油价格大幅提升带动美国3月PPI超预期、核心CPI回升。</strong>4月9日公布数据显示美国3月PPI环比增长1%，前值0.5%，预期0.5%，PPI同比增长4.2%，前值2.8%，预期3.8%；4月13日公布数据显示美国3月CPI环比增长0.6%，同比增长2.6%，核心CPI同比比增长1.6%，环比增长0.3%。美国3月CPI略超预期、PPI大幅超出市场预期，显示美国经济延续修复和改善、生产端价格修复加快。从CPI分项来看，能源价格和交通运输价格上涨带动CPI上行，住宅、商品与服务小幅上行，核心CPI距离通胀目标仍有上行空间。从PPI分项来看，能源价格同比大幅增长是带动3月PPI超预期的主要项目，同时扣除食品和能源价格的核心PPI同比回升，也显示了经济生产端的修复和价格上行。<br/>\r\n图3：美国通货膨胀<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090404378.png\"/><br/>\n<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090827677.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<strong>     </strong><strong> （2）刺激计划落地以及疫苗接种推广支撑经济重启，美国3月零售销售超出市场预期，可选消费改善明显。</strong>4月15日公布数据显示美国3月零售销售月率环比增长9.8%，前值-2.7%、预期5.9%，大幅超出市场预期。从零售销售分项数据来看，所有分项环比2月均有明显改善，其中食品服务、机动车辆零部件、电子和家用电器、建筑材料、服装及服装配饰、运动商品及业务爱好物品、日用品商场等板块改善幅度最大，随着疫苗接种的推广和针对居民的刺激计划落地，可选消费改善明显。<br/>\r\n图4：美国3月零售销售<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090615544.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<strong>      （3）</strong><strong>美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期。</strong>4月15日公布数据显示美国至4月10日当周初请失业金人数录得57.6万人，前值76.9万人，预期57.6万人，美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期，降至一年来最低水平，在疫苗接种推广和财政刺激计划的带动下，就业市场有明显的修复和改善，虽然当周初请失业金人数大幅下滑，但目前距疫情前的水平有一定的距离且失业率维持高位水平，短期内就业市场情况仍然是美联储考虑的重要指标。<br/>\r\n图5：美国当周初请失业金人数<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090624304.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\r\n       美国最新经济数据显示生产保持扩张、就业逐渐修复、服务业加速修复，消费有所改善，指向美国经济在新一轮刺激计划和疫苗接种推广的安排下逐渐修复，但失业率和通胀水平距离通胀目标仍然具有一定距离，支撑短期内美联储维持宽松政策，但由于PPI大幅度超出市场预期，通胀引发市场对美联储政策操作态度的关注，后续需要注意通胀水平的表现以及美联储的表态。<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>三、持仓分析</strong><br/>\r\n        截至4月13日当周，投机基金在CBOT10年期美国国债持有的净多单为30640张，前周净多持仓103369张，多头方较前周减少45634张，空头方较前周增加27095张，显示当前10年期美债市场多头势力占主导，但多头力量较上周有所减弱、空头开始入场。<br/>\r\n图6：CBOT10年期美债期货CFTC非商业持仓<br/>\n<img src=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/uploadfile/2021/0419/20210419090656146.png\"/><br/>\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>四、热点关注与行情展望</strong><br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>热点关注</strong>：欧洲央行公布利率决议、央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会，美国至4月17日当周初请失业金人数，美国3月成屋销售，美国3月谘商会领先指标，美国至4月16日当周EIA天然气库存，欧元区4月制造业、服务业PMI，美国4月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>制造业、服务业PMI，美国3月新屋销售。<br/>\n<br/>\n<strong>行情展望</strong>：4月以来，随着经济数据和美联储货币政策纪要的落地以及一季报行情的开启，市场风险偏好回升，十年期美债阶段性企稳回升。从经济基本面来看，随着疫苗接种的推广和疫情得到有效防控的情况下，美国经济延续修复，制造业PMI保持扩张、就业改善、通胀加快回升，美债收益率上行是趋势；从宏观政策面来看，由于当前疫情反复就业市场仍待修复，美联储延续短期宽松，短期利率仍然位于相对低位，对十年前美债形成阶段性的支撑，但通胀加快回升引发美联储的关注，后续不排除美联储逐渐推出QE的可能性；从持仓水平能看，当前十年期美债总持仓多头力量占上风，但净多单持仓减少，空单开始入场，或限制十年前美债的上行空间。总体来看，长期角度，随着通胀回升、美联储逐渐退出宽松政策，十年前美债仍然具有下行空间，且净多单减少对美债上方形成压力；短期角度，市场风险偏好回升、叠加阶段性的宽松政策延续，对底部形成支撑，预计短期十年期美债或保持区间震荡运行，关注上方压力位132.815，关注支撑位130.800。<br/>\n<br/>\n<br/><br/><br/>免责条款<br/>\r\n本报告版权归“国际衍生品智库”所有。未经事先书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为“国际衍生品智库”，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 本报告基于我公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，但我公司及其研究人员对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。报告中的信息，以及所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我们不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。\r\n                            </div></body></html>","source":"sunedu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【周报】市场风偏回升叠加美联储维持短期宽松，十年期美债触底企稳反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-19 09:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761><strong>CME</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、周度行情回顾\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.sun-edu.cn/zhiku/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=show&catid=15&id=27761","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f4194a6170df413b318136712477adde","article_id":"2128865144","content_text":"一、周度行情回顾\r\n       当地时间4月12日-4月16日一周，美国十年期国债主力合约ZNM1上行，收报132.312，涨幅0.4%，成交量756万，持仓量389.3万。4月以来，随着拜登刺激计划的落地以及疫苗接种的推广，美国3月经济数据出现较大幅度的改善，显示美国经济加快修复，加强了投资者对美债持有的信心，叠加财报季的来临，市场风险偏好明显回升，市场聚焦经济复苏主线带来的投资机会，通胀预期担忧暂告段落，十年前美债阶段性触底回升、阶段性企稳运行。\r\n图1：美国十年期国债周度行情\n\r\n资料来源：文华财经 国际衍生品智库\r\n图2：美国2年、5年、10年期国债收益率\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n\n二、基本面分析\r\n      （1）原油价格大幅提升带动美国3月PPI超预期、核心CPI回升。4月9日公布数据显示美国3月PPI环比增长1%，前值0.5%，预期0.5%，PPI同比增长4.2%，前值2.8%，预期3.8%；4月13日公布数据显示美国3月CPI环比增长0.6%，同比增长2.6%，核心CPI同比比增长1.6%，环比增长0.3%。美国3月CPI略超预期、PPI大幅超出市场预期，显示美国经济延续修复和改善、生产端价格修复加快。从CPI分项来看，能源价格和交通运输价格上涨带动CPI上行，住宅、商品与服务小幅上行，核心CPI距离通胀目标仍有上行空间。从PPI分项来看，能源价格同比大幅增长是带动3月PPI超预期的主要项目，同时扣除食品和能源价格的核心PPI同比回升，也显示了经济生产端的修复和价格上行。\r\n图3：美国通货膨胀\n\n\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n      （2）刺激计划落地以及疫苗接种推广支撑经济重启，美国3月零售销售超出市场预期，可选消费改善明显。4月15日公布数据显示美国3月零售销售月率环比增长9.8%，前值-2.7%、预期5.9%，大幅超出市场预期。从零售销售分项数据来看，所有分项环比2月均有明显改善，其中食品服务、机动车辆零部件、电子和家用电器、建筑材料、服装及服装配饰、运动商品及业务爱好物品、日用品商场等板块改善幅度最大，随着疫苗接种的推广和针对居民的刺激计划落地，可选消费改善明显。\r\n图4：美国3月零售销售\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n      （3）美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期。4月15日公布数据显示美国至4月10日当周初请失业金人数录得57.6万人，前值76.9万人，预期57.6万人，美国当周初请失业金人数大幅超出市场预期，降至一年来最低水平，在疫苗接种推广和财政刺激计划的带动下，就业市场有明显的修复和改善，虽然当周初请失业金人数大幅下滑，但目前距疫情前的水平有一定的距离且失业率维持高位水平，短期内就业市场情况仍然是美联储考虑的重要指标。\r\n图5：美国当周初请失业金人数\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\r\n       美国最新经济数据显示生产保持扩张、就业逐渐修复、服务业加速修复，消费有所改善，指向美国经济在新一轮刺激计划和疫苗接种推广的安排下逐渐修复，但失业率和通胀水平距离通胀目标仍然具有一定距离，支撑短期内美联储维持宽松政策，但由于PPI大幅度超出市场预期，通胀引发市场对美联储政策操作态度的关注，后续需要注意通胀水平的表现以及美联储的表态。\n\n三、持仓分析\r\n        截至4月13日当周，投机基金在CBOT10年期美国国债持有的净多单为30640张，前周净多持仓103369张，多头方较前周减少45634张，空头方较前周增加27095张，显示当前10年期美债市场多头势力占主导，但多头力量较上周有所减弱、空头开始入场。\r\n图6：CBOT10年期美债期货CFTC非商业持仓\n\r\n资料来源：Wind 国际衍生品智库\n\n四、热点关注与行情展望\n\n热点关注：欧洲央行公布利率决议、央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会，美国至4月17日当周初请失业金人数，美国3月成屋销售，美国3月谘商会领先指标，美国至4月16日当周EIA天然气库存，欧元区4月制造业、服务业PMI，美国4月Markit制造业、服务业PMI，美国3月新屋销售。\n\n行情展望：4月以来，随着经济数据和美联储货币政策纪要的落地以及一季报行情的开启，市场风险偏好回升，十年期美债阶段性企稳回升。从经济基本面来看，随着疫苗接种的推广和疫情得到有效防控的情况下，美国经济延续修复，制造业PMI保持扩张、就业改善、通胀加快回升，美债收益率上行是趋势；从宏观政策面来看，由于当前疫情反复就业市场仍待修复，美联储延续短期宽松，短期利率仍然位于相对低位，对十年前美债形成阶段性的支撑，但通胀加快回升引发美联储的关注，后续不排除美联储逐渐推出QE的可能性；从持仓水平能看，当前十年期美债总持仓多头力量占上风，但净多单持仓减少，空单开始入场，或限制十年前美债的上行空间。总体来看，长期角度，随着通胀回升、美联储逐渐退出宽松政策，十年前美债仍然具有下行空间，且净多单减少对美债上方形成压力；短期角度，市场风险偏好回升、叠加阶段性的宽松政策延续，对底部形成支撑，预计短期十年期美债或保持区间震荡运行，关注上方压力位132.815，关注支撑位130.800。\n\n免责条款\r\n本报告版权归“国际衍生品智库”所有。未经事先书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为“国际衍生品智库”，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。 本报告基于我公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，但我公司及其研究人员对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。报告中的信息，以及所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我们不就报告中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}