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2021-06-21

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How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble

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17:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105691189","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief ane","content":"<p>This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:</p>\n<p><b>Just after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.</b></p>\n<p>Many thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.</p>\n<p><b>Going into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&amp;P futures.</b></p>\n<p>Because every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.</b></p>\n<p>The room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.</p>\n<p><b>Then Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.</b>At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.</p>\n<p><b>At 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.</b>It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&amp;P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&amp;P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?</p>\n<p><b>After about 15 minutes, though, the S&amp;P leveled out and started to drop.</b></p>\n<p>First by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&amp;L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.</p>\n<p><b>At 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.</b>We gave him a standing ovation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc81a4bd27d4c16642589177ca9ad3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">I’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.</p>\n<p><b>It taught me that:</b></p>\n<p><u><b>#1) Conviction matters.</b></u></p>\n<p>We used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.</p>\n<p>There is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.</p>\n<p>They found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.</p>\n<p>No prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.<b>Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly</b>. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.</p>\n<p>Takeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.</p>\n<p><u><b>#2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience</b></u><u>.</u></p>\n<p>Steve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.</p>\n<p>This is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Don’t buy new lows.</p></li>\n <li><p>Don’t short new highs.</p></li>\n <li><p>Always scale in and out of positions.</p></li>\n <li><p>Set stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.</p></li>\n <li><p>Always look for new ideas.</p></li>\n <li><p>Admit when you’re wrong and move on.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Takeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.</b>If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.</p>\n<p>Final thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.</p>\n<p>Ironically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.</p>\n<p>Yes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:\nJust after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105691189","content_text":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:\nJust after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.\nMany thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.\nGoing into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&P futures.\nBecause every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.\nStocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.\nThe room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.\nThen Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.\nAt 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?\nAfter about 15 minutes, though, the S&P leveled out and started to drop.\nFirst by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.\nAt 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.We gave him a standing ovation.\nI’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.\nIt taught me that:\n#1) Conviction matters.\nWe used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.\nThere is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.\nThey found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.\nNo prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.\nTakeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.\n#2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience.\nSteve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.\nThis is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:\n\nDon’t buy new lows.\nDon’t short new highs.\nAlways scale in and out of positions.\nSet stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.\nAlways look for new ideas.\nAdmit when you’re wrong and move on.\n\nTakeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.\nFinal thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.\nIronically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.\nYes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111835086,"gmtCreate":1622674586945,"gmtModify":1704188492219,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569930228726403","authorIdStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111835086","repostId":"2140448417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140448417","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622648316,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2140448417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-02 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What You Should Know About Upstart Holdings' Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140448417","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors are paying a big premium for this artificial intelligence-driven lending disruptor.","content":"<p>When it comes to lending money, the fundamentals haven't changed much over the years. Banks typically want to see a steady income, responsible spending habits, and an item of security -- like a house or a car -- before writing loans. Technology has improved the process significantly, and it continues to evolve to provide more information to lenders and more options for consumers.</p>\n<p><b>Upstart Holdings </b>(NASDAQ:UPST) is all-digital lending platform with an artificial intelligence model that measures alternative metrics when assessing a potential borrower. The company uses the technology to help originate loans for lenders, and its business model is already delivering profits. Its valuation, though, has ballooned as enthusiastic investors bet heavily on the stock -- and it could take <i>years </i>for profits to catch up. Is it still worth an investment today?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47a7615523095573d390a24d22976d99\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image Source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>How it works</h2>\n<p>Upstart partners with banks that write unsecured loans, to borrowers who might have a moderate to low income and might be used to paying higher interest rates. Some of its offerings include personal loans, wedding loans, credit card consolidation, and car loans. The annual percentage rate (interest) for an Upstart loan is in the 8.27% to 35.99% range, depending on the product.</p>\n<p>Total non-housing consumer debt in the U.S. stood at more than $4.1 trillion in Q1, including about $745 billion in ''revolving credit'' (credit cards and other loans consumers can pay down, reuse, and carry balances on). Upstart has a substantial market opportunity that it has only just begun to tap.</p>\n<p>Potential borrowers can submit a loan application through a bank that uses Upstart's application programming interface (API). Behind the scenes, the company's artificial intelligence is assessing the proposed loan, looking at more than 1,000 data points to provide a decision instantly (in most cases).</p>\n<p>Upstart's algorithm has the ability to assess a borrower based on nontraditional metrics. For example, it accounts for a borrower's education and where they went to school, in addition to their job history, rather than just on income and assets. The company claims its decision process can reduce default rates by 75%. In fact, it boasts 173% <i>more</i> approvals for the same overall loan loss rate.</p>\n<h2>Priced for perfection</h2>\n<p>Banks are usually valued methodically, using metrics like tangible book value and earnings per share. Investors have decades' worth of historical earnings and valuations to work with when assessing financial institutions. New technology makes the process a bit different -- investors don't have the same history to study, and disruptive companies can therefore be difficult to value.</p>\n<p>At the moment, Upstart is trading like a growth-oriented tech company, and this <i>could </i>be warranted since it's effectively a software business.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th><p>Year</p></th>\n   <th><p>Revenue</p></th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2018</p></td>\n   <td><p>$99 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$164 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$233 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Q1 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$121 million</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Company filings.</p>\n<p>At Wednesday's prices, Upstart has a market cap over $11 billion, with full-year 2020 net income of $6 million. The company beat that total in this year's first quarter, with a net income of $10.1 million, so you can see how fast it's growing. However, it will likely need to earn significantly more for its current valuation to remain at these lofty levels.</p>\n<p>The company expects to earn $500 million in revenue in 2021 -- which would represent 114% in yearly revenue growth -- and based on the Q1 result, this could translate to over $40 million in net income.</p>\n<p>For the company to keep up this pace, it will most likely need new catalysts, and it likely has them.&nbsp;Upstart is now offering its platform technology to auto financiers, to capture a piece of the single largest lending segment after housing. Total auto loans in the U.S. grew to $1.37 trillion in 2020, and car shortages have led to higher prices and pent up demand across the board.</p>\n<p>The company has trailing 12-month revenue of $290 million, so the stock currently trades at a revenue multiple of roughly 38 times. That's higher than <b>Tesla</b>'s! With the growth opportunities Upstart is expecting, the company has the opportunity to grow its way into a less intimidating multiple over the next few years.&nbsp;But if you're buying it today, Upstart <i>must</i> deliver.</p>\n<h2>Looking forward</h2>\n<p>Upstart is showing promising growth in originations, with $1.73 billion in Q1, up 102% year over year on 169,750 total loans. This is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the best metrics to measure the company's performance, as it translates directly to revenue. Since the company's algorithm instantly and automatically approved 71% of those loans, the scalability of this business is potentially enormous.</p>\n<p>If the company continues to deliver growth in net income, its stock will likely remain buoyant -- although the risk to the valuation <i>might </i>be to the downside, depending how fast that growth is. The question for investors is whether there is enough upside potential from here to warrant that risk. Upstart is guiding for a similar amount of net income in the second quarter as it delivered in Q1, putting the company on track to generate less than $50 million this year. That might not be enough to sustain its current market cap.</p>\n<p>However, for investors with a five-year time horizon (or more), Upstart could present a strong growth opportunity.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What You Should Know About Upstart Holdings' Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat You Should Know About Upstart Holdings' Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 23:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/what-you-should-know-about-upstart-holdings-valuat/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When it comes to lending money, the fundamentals haven't changed much over the years. Banks typically want to see a steady income, responsible spending habits, and an item of security -- like a house ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/what-you-should-know-about-upstart-holdings-valuat/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/02/what-you-should-know-about-upstart-holdings-valuat/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140448417","content_text":"When it comes to lending money, the fundamentals haven't changed much over the years. Banks typically want to see a steady income, responsible spending habits, and an item of security -- like a house or a car -- before writing loans. Technology has improved the process significantly, and it continues to evolve to provide more information to lenders and more options for consumers.\nUpstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) is all-digital lending platform with an artificial intelligence model that measures alternative metrics when assessing a potential borrower. The company uses the technology to help originate loans for lenders, and its business model is already delivering profits. Its valuation, though, has ballooned as enthusiastic investors bet heavily on the stock -- and it could take years for profits to catch up. Is it still worth an investment today?\nImage Source: Getty Images.\nHow it works\nUpstart partners with banks that write unsecured loans, to borrowers who might have a moderate to low income and might be used to paying higher interest rates. Some of its offerings include personal loans, wedding loans, credit card consolidation, and car loans. The annual percentage rate (interest) for an Upstart loan is in the 8.27% to 35.99% range, depending on the product.\nTotal non-housing consumer debt in the U.S. stood at more than $4.1 trillion in Q1, including about $745 billion in ''revolving credit'' (credit cards and other loans consumers can pay down, reuse, and carry balances on). Upstart has a substantial market opportunity that it has only just begun to tap.\nPotential borrowers can submit a loan application through a bank that uses Upstart's application programming interface (API). Behind the scenes, the company's artificial intelligence is assessing the proposed loan, looking at more than 1,000 data points to provide a decision instantly (in most cases).\nUpstart's algorithm has the ability to assess a borrower based on nontraditional metrics. For example, it accounts for a borrower's education and where they went to school, in addition to their job history, rather than just on income and assets. The company claims its decision process can reduce default rates by 75%. In fact, it boasts 173% more approvals for the same overall loan loss rate.\nPriced for perfection\nBanks are usually valued methodically, using metrics like tangible book value and earnings per share. Investors have decades' worth of historical earnings and valuations to work with when assessing financial institutions. New technology makes the process a bit different -- investors don't have the same history to study, and disruptive companies can therefore be difficult to value.\nAt the moment, Upstart is trading like a growth-oriented tech company, and this could be warranted since it's effectively a software business.\n\n\n\nYear\nRevenue\n\n\n\n\n2018\n$99 million\n\n\n2019\n$164 million\n\n\n2020\n$233 million\n\n\nQ1 2021\n$121 million\n\n\n\nData source: Company filings.\nAt Wednesday's prices, Upstart has a market cap over $11 billion, with full-year 2020 net income of $6 million. The company beat that total in this year's first quarter, with a net income of $10.1 million, so you can see how fast it's growing. However, it will likely need to earn significantly more for its current valuation to remain at these lofty levels.\nThe company expects to earn $500 million in revenue in 2021 -- which would represent 114% in yearly revenue growth -- and based on the Q1 result, this could translate to over $40 million in net income.\nFor the company to keep up this pace, it will most likely need new catalysts, and it likely has them. Upstart is now offering its platform technology to auto financiers, to capture a piece of the single largest lending segment after housing. Total auto loans in the U.S. grew to $1.37 trillion in 2020, and car shortages have led to higher prices and pent up demand across the board.\nThe company has trailing 12-month revenue of $290 million, so the stock currently trades at a revenue multiple of roughly 38 times. That's higher than Tesla's! With the growth opportunities Upstart is expecting, the company has the opportunity to grow its way into a less intimidating multiple over the next few years. But if you're buying it today, Upstart must deliver.\nLooking forward\nUpstart is showing promising growth in originations, with $1.73 billion in Q1, up 102% year over year on 169,750 total loans. This is one of the best metrics to measure the company's performance, as it translates directly to revenue. Since the company's algorithm instantly and automatically approved 71% of those loans, the scalability of this business is potentially enormous.\nIf the company continues to deliver growth in net income, its stock will likely remain buoyant -- although the risk to the valuation might be to the downside, depending how fast that growth is. The question for investors is whether there is enough upside potential from here to warrant that risk. Upstart is guiding for a similar amount of net income in the second quarter as it delivered in Q1, putting the company on track to generate less than $50 million this year. That might not be enough to sustain its current market cap.\nHowever, for investors with a five-year time horizon (or more), Upstart could present a strong growth opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":144696560,"gmtCreate":1626278097050,"gmtModify":1703757077324,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569930228726403","idStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa&nbsp;","listText":"Wa&nbsp;","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144696560","repostId":"1181513394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181513394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626276027,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181513394?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"OPEC reportedly reaches compromise on oil production after dispute with UAE","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181513394","media":"CNBC","summary":"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday arrived","content":"<div>\n<p>DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday arrived at a deal after a nearly two-week standoff over its future oil production levels, according to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/opec-reportedly-reaches-compromise-on-oil-production-after-dispute-with-uae.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC reportedly reaches compromise on oil production after dispute with UAE</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC reportedly reaches compromise on oil production after dispute with UAE\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-14 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/opec-reportedly-reaches-compromise-on-oil-production-after-dispute-with-uae.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday arrived at a deal after a nearly two-week standoff over its future oil production levels, according to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/opec-reportedly-reaches-compromise-on-oil-production-after-dispute-with-uae.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/opec-reportedly-reaches-compromise-on-oil-production-after-dispute-with-uae.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1181513394","content_text":"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday arrived at a deal after a nearly two-week standoff over its future oil production levels, according to reports by theWall Street JournalandReuters.\nThe temporary but unprecedented gridlock that began in early July saw the United Arab Emirates reject a coordinated oil production plan for the group spearheaded by its kingpin, Saudi Arabia.\nAbu Dhabi had demanded that its own \"baseline\" for crude production — the maximum volume it's recognized by OPEC as being able to produce — be raised because this figure then determines the size of production cuts and quotas it must follow as per the group's output agreements. Members cut the same percentage from their baseline, so having a higher baseline would allow the UAE a greater production quota.\nThe UAE initially called for its baseline to be raised from 3.2 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day. According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, the compromise reached between Saudi Arabia and its smaller neighbor will raise the UAE's baseline to 3.65 million barrels per day from April 2022. The reports have not been officially confirmed, and OPEC and the Saudi energy ministry did not reply to CNBC requests for comment.\nThe initial agreement supported by most OPEC delegates set out a plan for the group to collectively bring production up to 400,000 barrels of crude per day monthly through to the end of 2022. This would end the remaining limits that were set in the spring of 2020, as economic recovery and growing demand for oil have broughtcrude prices up to their highest level since late 2018.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111835086,"gmtCreate":1622674586945,"gmtModify":1704188492219,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569930228726403","idStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111835086","repostId":"2140448417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038855294,"gmtCreate":1646795647341,"gmtModify":1676534163551,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569930228726403","idStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>It will shoot up to 54&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>It will shoot up to 54&nbsp;","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$It will shoot up to 54","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038855294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127750650,"gmtCreate":1624870593870,"gmtModify":1703846661932,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569930228726403","idStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa&nbsp;","listText":"Wa&nbsp;","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127750650","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146007118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624826996,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146007118?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 04:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"June jobs report, Consumer confidence: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146007118","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"This week's packed slate of economic data reports will include an update on the labor market and new data on consumer confidence, offering fresh looks at the pace and perception of the COVID-19 recovery for many Americans.On Friday, the Labor Department will release its June jobs report. The print is expected to show an acceleration in rehiring and a step lower in the unemployment rate, helping alleviate some of the labor shortages reported across the economy as of late.However, a confluence of ","content":"<p>This week's packed slate of economic data reports will include an update on the labor market and new data on consumer confidence, offering fresh looks at the pace and perception of the COVID-19 recovery for many Americans.</p>\n<p>On Friday, the Labor Department will release its June jobs report. The print is expected to show an acceleration in rehiring and a step lower in the unemployment rate, helping alleviate some of the labor shortages reported across the economy as of late.</p>\n<p>Non-farm payrolls likely grew by 700,000 in June, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would accelerate from the 559,000 added back in May and mark the biggest rise since March. And the unemployment rate is expected to move down to 5.6% from 5.8% in May, bringing the jobless rate closer to its pre-pandemic, 50-year low of 3.5%.</p>\n<p>\"Payrolls probably surged again in June, with the pace up from the +559,000 in May,\" TD Securities strategists wrote in a note Friday. \"Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs.\"</p>\n<p>Even with a sizable monthly payroll gain, the economy would still be well off its pre-pandemic levels of employment. Heading into June, the U.S. economy was still down by more than 7 million payrolls compared to February 2020, with the deficit most pronounced in high-contact services industries like restaurants and hotels.</p>\n<p>But both services and manufacturing companies have cited shortages of qualified workers to fill open positions, which hit a record high of over 9 million as of latest data. These supply-and-demand mismatches in the labor market – with shortages noted by firms from FedEx (FDX) to Yum Brands (YUM) — have also begun to push wages higher and created additional costs for businesses. In Friday's report, average hourly earnings are expected to jump 3.6% year-on-year for June, accelerating from May's 2% increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b881fe96eccc72cff61bf35b0dfa72fa\" tg-width=\"5210\" tg-height=\"3404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 03: A pedestrian walks by a Now Hiring sign outside of a Lamps Plus store on June 03, 2021 in San Francisco, California. According to a U.S. Labor Department report, jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week to 385,000. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Justin Sullivan via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>\"Strong demand and weak supply should continue to put upward pressure on wages,\" Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. \"Workers are quitting at a higher rate as they find better opportunities.\"</p>\n<p>However, a confluence of factors that have kept workers on the sidelines of the labor market may start to lessen in the coming months, some economists noted. Many have agreed that a combination of childcare concerns, fears of contracting COVID-19 and ongoing enhanced federal unemployment benefits have contributed to the still-elevated levels of joblessness, but that each of these should diminish as schools reopen, vaccinations continue and jobless benefits get phased out over the next several months.</p>\n<p>\"Labor supply may soon pick up,\" Meyer said. \"We find evidence of a quicker drop in unemployment insurance (UI) applications in states that discontinued generous federal UI benefits.\"</p>\n<p>\"Four states — Alaska, Iowa, Mississippi and Missouri — opted out in June 12 and UI applications in those states have fallen faster compared to other states, according to the latest initial jobless claims figures,\" she added. \"With another eight states opting out in the week ending June 19 and a total of 25 states by end of the summer, more workers should return to the workforce, helping to ease wage pressures and help meet the strong labor demand in the economy.\"</p>\n<h2>Consumer confidence</h2>\n<h2></h2>\n<p>Another closely watched economic data print this week will be the Conference Board's June consumer confidence index, which is expected to reflect a strong pick-up in sentiment during the recovery and heading into the summer. The report is due for release Tuesday morning.</p>\n<p>The headline index is likely to rise to 119.0 for June from 117.2 in May, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would mark the highest level since February 2020's 132.6, which itself had been a near two-decade high.</p>\n<p>Like investors, consumers have begun to warm to the notion that inflationary pressures seen during the early stages of the economic recovery may prove transitory. This has helped raise consumers' future expectations for their spending power and boosted sentiment at large, according to other consumer sentiment surveys including the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers.</p>\n<p>Not only did year-ahead inflation expectations fall slightly to 4.2% in June from May's decade peak of 4.6%, consumers also believed that the price surges will mostly be temporary,\" Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said on Friday.</p>\n<p>\"When the pandemic first started, consumers were quite uncertain about their job and income prospects, but reported widespread declines in market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables,\" he added. \"Those favorable price references have dropped to the most negative in a decade, and job and income prospects have improved, but not quite as favorable as in the last few years of the prior expansion.\"</p>\n<p>Still, in a sign of some downside risk in Tuesday's report from the Conference Board, the University of Michigan's June final sentiment index edged lower to 85.5, coming in below the 86.4 preliminary print, but still above May's reading of 82.9.</p>\n<h2>Economic Calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b>Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, June (32.5 expected, 34.9 in May)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>FHFA House Price Index, month-on-month, April (1.7% expected, 1.4% in March); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index, month-over-month, April (1.80% expected, 1.60% in March); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index, year-over-year, April (13.27% in March); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, June (119.0 expected, 117.2 in May)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended June 25 (2.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, June (575,000 expected, 978,000 in May); MNI Chicago PMI, June (70.0 expected, 75.2 in May); Pending home sales, month-over-month, May (-1.0% expected, -4.4% in April);</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, June (-93.8% in May); Initial jobless claims, week ended June 26 (380,000 expected, 411,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended June 19 (3.39 million during prior week); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> US Manufacturing PMI, June final (62.6 in prior print); Construction Spending month-over-month, May (0.5% expected 0.2% in April); ISM Manufacturing, June (61.0 expected, 61.2 in May)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b>Change in non-farm payrolls, June (700,000 expected, 559,000 in May); Unemployment rate, June (5.6% expected, 5.8% in May); Average hourly earnings year-over-year, June (3.6% expected, 2.0% in May); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.5% in May); Trade balance, May (-$71.0 billion expected, -$68.9 billion in April); Factory orders, May (1.5% expected, -0.6% in April); Durable goods orders, May final (2.3% in prior print); Durable goods orders excluding transportation, May final (2.3% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, May final (-0.1% in April); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, May final (0.9% in prior print)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>Earnings Calendar</h2>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday:</b> N/A</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>N/A</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>Constellation Brands (STZ), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS) before market open; Micron Technologies (MU) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA) before market open</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday:</b> N/A</p></li>\n</ul>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June jobs report, Consumer confidence: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune jobs report, Consumer confidence: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 04:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-jobs-report-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-204956329.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week's packed slate of economic data reports will include an update on the labor market and new data on consumer confidence, offering fresh looks at the pace and perception of the COVID-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-jobs-report-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-204956329.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-jobs-report-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-204956329.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146007118","content_text":"This week's packed slate of economic data reports will include an update on the labor market and new data on consumer confidence, offering fresh looks at the pace and perception of the COVID-19 recovery for many Americans.\nOn Friday, the Labor Department will release its June jobs report. The print is expected to show an acceleration in rehiring and a step lower in the unemployment rate, helping alleviate some of the labor shortages reported across the economy as of late.\nNon-farm payrolls likely grew by 700,000 in June, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would accelerate from the 559,000 added back in May and mark the biggest rise since March. And the unemployment rate is expected to move down to 5.6% from 5.8% in May, bringing the jobless rate closer to its pre-pandemic, 50-year low of 3.5%.\n\"Payrolls probably surged again in June, with the pace up from the +559,000 in May,\" TD Securities strategists wrote in a note Friday. \"Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs.\"\nEven with a sizable monthly payroll gain, the economy would still be well off its pre-pandemic levels of employment. Heading into June, the U.S. economy was still down by more than 7 million payrolls compared to February 2020, with the deficit most pronounced in high-contact services industries like restaurants and hotels.\nBut both services and manufacturing companies have cited shortages of qualified workers to fill open positions, which hit a record high of over 9 million as of latest data. These supply-and-demand mismatches in the labor market – with shortages noted by firms from FedEx (FDX) to Yum Brands (YUM) — have also begun to push wages higher and created additional costs for businesses. In Friday's report, average hourly earnings are expected to jump 3.6% year-on-year for June, accelerating from May's 2% increase.\nSAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 03: A pedestrian walks by a Now Hiring sign outside of a Lamps Plus store on June 03, 2021 in San Francisco, California. According to a U.S. Labor Department report, jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week to 385,000. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Justin Sullivan via Getty Images\n\"Strong demand and weak supply should continue to put upward pressure on wages,\" Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. \"Workers are quitting at a higher rate as they find better opportunities.\"\nHowever, a confluence of factors that have kept workers on the sidelines of the labor market may start to lessen in the coming months, some economists noted. Many have agreed that a combination of childcare concerns, fears of contracting COVID-19 and ongoing enhanced federal unemployment benefits have contributed to the still-elevated levels of joblessness, but that each of these should diminish as schools reopen, vaccinations continue and jobless benefits get phased out over the next several months.\n\"Labor supply may soon pick up,\" Meyer said. \"We find evidence of a quicker drop in unemployment insurance (UI) applications in states that discontinued generous federal UI benefits.\"\n\"Four states — Alaska, Iowa, Mississippi and Missouri — opted out in June 12 and UI applications in those states have fallen faster compared to other states, according to the latest initial jobless claims figures,\" she added. \"With another eight states opting out in the week ending June 19 and a total of 25 states by end of the summer, more workers should return to the workforce, helping to ease wage pressures and help meet the strong labor demand in the economy.\"\nConsumer confidence\n\nAnother closely watched economic data print this week will be the Conference Board's June consumer confidence index, which is expected to reflect a strong pick-up in sentiment during the recovery and heading into the summer. The report is due for release Tuesday morning.\nThe headline index is likely to rise to 119.0 for June from 117.2 in May, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would mark the highest level since February 2020's 132.6, which itself had been a near two-decade high.\nLike investors, consumers have begun to warm to the notion that inflationary pressures seen during the early stages of the economic recovery may prove transitory. This has helped raise consumers' future expectations for their spending power and boosted sentiment at large, according to other consumer sentiment surveys including the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers.\nNot only did year-ahead inflation expectations fall slightly to 4.2% in June from May's decade peak of 4.6%, consumers also believed that the price surges will mostly be temporary,\" Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said on Friday.\n\"When the pandemic first started, consumers were quite uncertain about their job and income prospects, but reported widespread declines in market prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables,\" he added. \"Those favorable price references have dropped to the most negative in a decade, and job and income prospects have improved, but not quite as favorable as in the last few years of the prior expansion.\"\nStill, in a sign of some downside risk in Tuesday's report from the Conference Board, the University of Michigan's June final sentiment index edged lower to 85.5, coming in below the 86.4 preliminary print, but still above May's reading of 82.9.\nEconomic Calendar\n\nMonday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, June (32.5 expected, 34.9 in May)\nTuesday: FHFA House Price Index, month-on-month, April (1.7% expected, 1.4% in March); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index, month-over-month, April (1.80% expected, 1.60% in March); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index, year-over-year, April (13.27% in March); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, June (119.0 expected, 117.2 in May)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended June 25 (2.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, June (575,000 expected, 978,000 in May); MNI Chicago PMI, June (70.0 expected, 75.2 in May); Pending home sales, month-over-month, May (-1.0% expected, -4.4% in April);\nThursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, June (-93.8% in May); Initial jobless claims, week ended June 26 (380,000 expected, 411,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended June 19 (3.39 million during prior week); Markit US Manufacturing PMI, June final (62.6 in prior print); Construction Spending month-over-month, May (0.5% expected 0.2% in April); ISM Manufacturing, June (61.0 expected, 61.2 in May)\nFriday: Change in non-farm payrolls, June (700,000 expected, 559,000 in May); Unemployment rate, June (5.6% expected, 5.8% in May); Average hourly earnings year-over-year, June (3.6% expected, 2.0% in May); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, June (0.4% expected, 0.5% in May); Trade balance, May (-$71.0 billion expected, -$68.9 billion in April); Factory orders, May (1.5% expected, -0.6% in April); Durable goods orders, May final (2.3% in prior print); Durable goods orders excluding transportation, May final (2.3% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, May final (-0.1% in April); Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft, May final (0.9% in prior print)\n\nEarnings Calendar\n\nMonday: N/A\nTuesday: N/A\nWednesday: Constellation Brands (STZ), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS) before market open; Micron Technologies (MU) after market close\nThursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) before market open\nFriday: N/A","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167235952,"gmtCreate":1624269536076,"gmtModify":1703832030453,"author":{"id":"3569930228726403","authorId":"3569930228726403","name":"Shalommmm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97801931fe73b190c1dbecfb7934480","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569930228726403","idStr":"3569930228726403"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa&nbsp;","listText":"Wa&nbsp;","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167235952","repostId":"1105691189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105691189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624266134,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105691189?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105691189","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief ane","content":"<p>This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:</p>\n<p><b>Just after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.</b></p>\n<p>Many thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.</p>\n<p><b>Going into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&amp;P futures.</b></p>\n<p>Because every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.</p>\n<p><b>Stocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.</b></p>\n<p>The room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.</p>\n<p><b>Then Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.</b>At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.</p>\n<p><b>At 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.</b>It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&amp;P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&amp;P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?</p>\n<p><b>After about 15 minutes, though, the S&amp;P leveled out and started to drop.</b></p>\n<p>First by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&amp;L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.</p>\n<p><b>At 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.</b>We gave him a standing ovation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc81a4bd27d4c16642589177ca9ad3e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\">I’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.</p>\n<p><b>It taught me that:</b></p>\n<p><u><b>#1) Conviction matters.</b></u></p>\n<p>We used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.</p>\n<p>There is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.</p>\n<p>They found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.</p>\n<p>No prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.<b>Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly</b>. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.</p>\n<p>Takeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.</p>\n<p><u><b>#2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience</b></u><u>.</u></p>\n<p>Steve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.</p>\n<p>This is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Don’t buy new lows.</p></li>\n <li><p>Don’t short new highs.</p></li>\n <li><p>Always scale in and out of positions.</p></li>\n <li><p>Set stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.</p></li>\n <li><p>Always look for new ideas.</p></li>\n <li><p>Admit when you’re wrong and move on.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Takeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.</b>If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.</p>\n<p>Final thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.</p>\n<p>Ironically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.</p>\n<p>Yes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Steve Cohen Traded The Bursting Of The Dot Com Bubble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:\nJust after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-steve-cohen-traded-bursting-dot-com-bubble?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105691189","content_text":"This week’s Story Time Thursday is about “Patience”, and I (Nick here …) will start with a brief anecdote from my time at SAC Capital back in 2000:\nJust after the peak of the dot com bubble in March, it was not immediately clear which way the US equity market was headed.\nMany thought the momentum would return soon enough. Others were more cautious, but most bears had been wrong for years. It was therefore hard to take them seriously.\nGoing into a Fed meeting day in mid-2000, Steve had set up his portfolio very short S&P futures.\nBecause every trader in the room was allowed to see his pad, we all followed suit. Everyone was max-out short, confident in Steve’s market call even though it wasn’t exactly clear what he saw.\nStocks opened up that morning, and then headed higher still.\nThe room was dead quiet, as every trading desk will be when experiencing sharp, sudden losses.\nThen Steve did something I had never seen him do before: he left the desk and went downstairs to have lunch with his family.At the time, SAC shared space with GE Capital in a Stamford, CT office building. When I went down to the cafeteria to get lunch a little while later, I saw Steve chatting with his kids and wife while munching on some fish sticks. He didn’t really seem to have a care in the world.\nAt 2:00pm, with Steve back on the desk, we all waited for the Fed decision.It was another rate hike. But instead of selling off, the S&P just kept going up. The only sound in the room was Steve’s assistant calling out S&P levels, each one higher than the last, her voice growing more urgent with each number. Had Steve misread the tape?\nAfter about 15 minutes, though, the S&P leveled out and started to drop.\nFirst by just a little, but then it went into free fall. The whole firm’s P&L swung from dangerously in the red to deeply profitable.\nAt 4pm, with all his shorts covered, Steve stood up and addressed the room: “And that’s how you do it … I’m going home now”.We gave him a standing ovation.\nI’ve thought a lot about that day in the last 20 years, and not just because it so neatly encapsulates the experience of equity day trading in its late 1990s – early 2000s heyday.\nIt taught me that:\n#1) Conviction matters.\nWe used to have a debate on the desk at SAC: was Steve so good because he was already worth a billion dollars and could afford to take risk, or did his net worth come from his ability to only scale and stick with bets where he had the highest conviction? Days like the one I just described always made us realize it was the latter.\nThere is more to that point, though. Many years later, I met a data team that had done a deep diagnostic analysis of hundreds of hedge funds. They looked primarily at what separated top decile performing funds from the rest of the pack.\nThey found that much of the slippage in underperforming funds came from a myriad of small portfolio positions that collectively ate away at returns. Some were losers, yes, but many were winners that weren’t sized large enough to make a real difference in the portfolio. Top performing funds owned winners in size; lesser funds were involved as well, but only in a small way.\nNo prizes for guessing why that happened: conviction.Mediocre funds had enough of an investment process to unearth good ideas, but not enough to size them correctly. They weren’t willing to make a larger bet because they knew they would not be able to patiently sit out any volatility that might arise if it were 5 percent of the portfolio rather than 0.5 percent.\nTakeaway: conviction and sizing are what separated Steve, and every other great investor I’ve ever met, from the merely “very good”. It’s not enough to find ideas that work. The real magic is in making them count.\n#2: Use whatever mental hacks you need to foster patience.\nSteve’s was getting off the desk for an hour. Other highly successful investors I’ve met over the years literally turned off their screens or took a symbol off their monitors.\nThis is not to say one can just blindly buy an asset and hold it whatever comes. Productive patience means following many rules. A few of my personal favorites:\n\nDon’t buy new lows.\nDon’t short new highs.\nAlways scale in and out of positions.\nSet stop losses where you re-evaluate your point of view.\nAlways look for new ideas.\nAdmit when you’re wrong and move on.\n\nTakeaway: the story about Steve on Fed Day is not meant to celebrate blind patience, but rather to show how patience fits in the context of a broader, disciplined approach.If Steve had been wrong on that day, he would have still stuck to his process the next day and the day after that. No one has a 100 percent hit rate in this business.\nFinal thought: the ability to be patient is, in the end, always a function of conviction and environment. Since we have little control over environment, especially with capital markets, the only effective way to cultivate patience is to build and follow a process that increases conviction in the context of prevailing circumstances.\nIronically, low volatility markets such as what we have now demand more patience and conviction than when prices are choppier. Even a 1 percent position in a spicy name can meaningfully help portfolio returns when the VIX is at 40. But when the VIX is below 20 (today’s close was 18), it’s an entirely different game. The current environment demands a focused investment approach, not a scattershot one.\nYes, this is hard, but as Steve said, “That’s how you do it”.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}