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2023-08-18

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4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends

2023-08-05

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@TigerOptions:💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income

2023-06-29

2023-06-29

2023-06-29

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@OptionsDelta:My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month

2023-06-29

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@Tiger_comments:2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?

2021-02-22

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2021-02-17

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2021-02-07

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Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-18 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"G13.SI":"云顶新加坡","U96.SI":"胜科工业","P34.SI":"DELFI LIMITED","H02.SI":"虎豹企业"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2360255396","content_text":"The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.Delfi (SGX: P34)Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.The group’s flagship chocolate brands SilverQueen and Ceres are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"U96.SI":1,"G13.SI":1,"H02.SI":1,"P34.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205628050198744,"gmtCreate":1691211693594,"gmtModify":1691211696742,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205628050198744","repostId":"205380242104568","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":205380242104568,"gmtCreate":1691151216760,"gmtModify":1691151224982,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income","htmlText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","listText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","text":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage. [Sly] 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee27826201bf60f99cf6be792e7b5203","width":"1179","height":"1083"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac9a902ccbf8eb717ed3511c3ae171c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a36d0295ac51e5a9e46aadd0b8dfe6","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205380242104568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192569997398160,"gmtCreate":1688043689678,"gmtModify":1688043920140,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86bf9f8564b10aee437035656391c1e5","width":"1170","height":"3073"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192569997398160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568485236928,"gmtCreate":1688043458689,"gmtModify":1688043544032,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/141bf898cbbfbc2a4f35619634cc46d5","width":"1170","height":"4785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568485236928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568755798136,"gmtCreate":1688043384485,"gmtModify":1688043387669,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568755798136","repostId":"191891691782400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191891691782400,"gmtCreate":1687876740529,"gmtModify":1687876777509,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month","htmlText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","listText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","text":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell $XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$buy $XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09332b22a5a140c7d7f1cf10640abac7","width":"1148","height":"785"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac10ffda4b5df4b419681c89a2d9252a","width":"2376","height":"98"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2770019ffe7e9f5b37b281c9c8b069","width":"2398","height":"96"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191891691782400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568715002088,"gmtCreate":1688043376917,"gmtModify":1688043382091,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568715002088","repostId":"191878417490176","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191878417490176,"gmtCreate":1687873499736,"gmtModify":1687922314196,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?","htmlText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","listText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","text":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62f0430c21ed92dfa4bb76d24d3d0f25","width":"1080","height":"1050"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d01148cadd83619a53740baa91c1c02","width":"1349","height":"826"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83af8ed135d5d183a56f14f3121f15bb","width":"994","height":"657"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191878417490176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369391438,"gmtCreate":1614003122424,"gmtModify":1704886740696,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369391438","repostId":"360417639","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385619695,"gmtCreate":1613541053717,"gmtModify":1704881801593,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385619695","repostId":"1168530249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389392332,"gmtCreate":1612680052526,"gmtModify":1704873478235,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389392332","repostId":"2109770659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109770659","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612571686,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109770659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770659","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?","content":"<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles lasting 16-18 years, but does the US Dollar Index exhibit cyclicality? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled? The market remains controversial. Focusing on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Chief Macro Analyst Xie Yaxuan and Professor Zhou Yinggang, Vice Dean of the Wang Yanan Institute for Economic Research at Xiamen University, held a discussion.</p><p><b>I. Judgment on the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that, on the surface, the US Dollar Index exhibits a clear medium- to long-term (2016 to 2018) cyclical pattern. However, both academia and industry seem to lack sufficient research and attention to this issue.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US Dollar Index has experienced two complete cycles from 1971 to 2020. Regarding the focus of market controversy, \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", measurement methods can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, by simulating a peak in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index before the 1970s, around 1967-1968; Second, combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Based on forecasts from multiple financial institutions, including Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can gain a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle by studying the economic cycle and the financial cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to fall under the category of the financial cycle. First, unlike economic cycles, financial cycles are more volatile and longer than traditional economic cycles, lasting approximately 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Secondly, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange trading far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has more financial cycle attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that there is significant controversy among market investors regarding the driving factors behind the dollar cycle. Traditional analytical frameworks focus more on the real economy, while the US domestic economy and relatively short-term driving factors seem insufficient to explain the changes in the dollar cycle, which has financial cycle attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the US economic status, US monetary policy, and international events. First, the US economic position plays a supporting role in the US dollar as a whole, with the correlation coefficient between the US GDP as a percentage of the world and real the US Dollar Index reaching 55.5%. Secondly, US monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the shift in the strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is often ahead of that of the US Dollar Index, mainly because interest rate differentials trigger capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, international events such as the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The Impact of the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors do not seem to pay attention to the impact of the dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror\" or even a \"veil\" of the changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research findings of the academic community, particularly the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, on the financial cycle and the global financial cycle, which are of particular concern.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock markets, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is -44.6%, which means that a weak dollar will promote global trade and economic resilience and help reduce trade imbalances. Secondly, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filtered) is -18.6%, which means that a weak dollar will drive up the stock market. Third, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is -20.3%, meaning that a weak dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and net inflows of global portfolio securities is -36.4%, which means that a weak dollar will promote cross-border capital inflows globally, driving up asset prices and even creating bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the RMB against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is -37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Regarding the US Dollar Cycle and Asset Allocation</b></p><p>The Merrill Lynch clock was once jokingly referred to as an electric fan. Xie Yaxuan, the chief executive, proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research practice, the asset allocation framework should be improved by fully considering the dollar cycle and the financial cycle.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared his team's latest achievement: the WISE investment clock, an improvement based on the Merrill Lynch clock. Unlike traditional Merrill Lynch clocks, the WISE clock has two main innovations: first, it synthesizes financial cycle indicators; and second, it treats real estate as an additional asset. During periods of upward economic and financial cycles, real estate is the primary asset allocation choice, followed by stocks. During periods of upward and downward financial cycles and economic cycles, stocks are the preferred asset allocation choice, followed by bonds; During economic and financial downturns, cash is the preferred asset allocation strategy, followed by bonds. During periods of downturn in the financial cycle and upturn in the economic cycle, commodities are the preferred asset allocation method, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is an inevitable trend. In this process, we should pay more attention to the US dollar cycle and its changes in order to seize corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">轩言全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles lasting 16-18 years, but does the US Dollar Index exhibit cyclicality? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled? The market remains controversial. Focusing on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Chief Macro Analyst Xie Yaxuan and Professor Zhou Yinggang, Vice Dean of the Wang Yanan Institute for Economic Research at Xiamen University, held a discussion.</p><p><b>I. Judgment on the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that, on the surface, the US Dollar Index exhibits a clear medium- to long-term (2016 to 2018) cyclical pattern. However, both academia and industry seem to lack sufficient research and attention to this issue.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US Dollar Index has experienced two complete cycles from 1971 to 2020. Regarding the focus of market controversy, \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", measurement methods can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, by simulating a peak in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index before the 1970s, around 1967-1968; Second, combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Based on forecasts from multiple financial institutions, including Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can gain a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle by studying the economic cycle and the financial cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to fall under the category of the financial cycle. First, unlike economic cycles, financial cycles are more volatile and longer than traditional economic cycles, lasting approximately 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Secondly, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange trading far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has more financial cycle attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that there is significant controversy among market investors regarding the driving factors behind the dollar cycle. Traditional analytical frameworks focus more on the real economy, while the US domestic economy and relatively short-term driving factors seem insufficient to explain the changes in the dollar cycle, which has financial cycle attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the US economic status, US monetary policy, and international events. First, the US economic position plays a supporting role in the US dollar as a whole, with the correlation coefficient between the US GDP as a percentage of the world and real the US Dollar Index reaching 55.5%. Secondly, US monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the shift in the strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is often ahead of that of the US Dollar Index, mainly because interest rate differentials trigger capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, international events such as the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The Impact of the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors do not seem to pay attention to the impact of the dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror\" or even a \"veil\" of the changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research findings of the academic community, particularly the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, on the financial cycle and the global financial cycle, which are of particular concern.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock markets, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is -44.6%, which means that a weak dollar will promote global trade and economic resilience and help reduce trade imbalances. Secondly, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filtered) is -18.6%, which means that a weak dollar will drive up the stock market. Third, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is -20.3%, meaning that a weak dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and net inflows of global portfolio securities is -36.4%, which means that a weak dollar will promote cross-border capital inflows globally, driving up asset prices and even creating bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the RMB against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is -37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Regarding the US Dollar Cycle and Asset Allocation</b></p><p>The Merrill Lynch clock was once jokingly referred to as an electric fan. Xie Yaxuan, the chief executive, proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research practice, the asset allocation framework should be improved by fully considering the dollar cycle and the financial cycle.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared his team's latest achievement: the WISE investment clock, an improvement based on the Merrill Lynch clock. Unlike traditional Merrill Lynch clocks, the WISE clock has two main innovations: first, it synthesizes financial cycle indicators; and second, it treats real estate as an additional asset. During periods of upward economic and financial cycles, real estate is the primary asset allocation choice, followed by stocks. During periods of upward and downward financial cycles and economic cycles, stocks are the preferred asset allocation choice, followed by bonds; During economic and financial downturns, cash is the preferred asset allocation strategy, followed by bonds. During periods of downturn in the financial cycle and upturn in the economic cycle, commodities are the preferred asset allocation method, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is an inevitable trend. In this process, we should pay more attention to the US dollar cycle and its changes in order to seize corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA\">轩言全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37cf1a899f018a102327895848b06a09","relate_stocks":{"FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770659","content_text":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合摩根士丹利、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。三、 关于美元周期的影响谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MEURmain":0.9,"FXE":0.9,"FXC":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"FXB":0.9,"YCS":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"NZDmain":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570422292303429","authorId":"3570422292303429","name":"胖虎宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e46136ec0a6bee3b2da277c7ec77409","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570422292303429","authorIdStr":"3570422292303429"},"content":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","text":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","html":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":389392332,"gmtCreate":1612680052526,"gmtModify":1704873478235,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389392332","repostId":"2109770659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109770659","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612571686,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109770659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770659","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?","content":"<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles lasting 16-18 years, but does the US Dollar Index exhibit cyclicality? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled? The market remains controversial. Focusing on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Chief Macro Analyst Xie Yaxuan and Professor Zhou Yinggang, Vice Dean of the Wang Yanan Institute for Economic Research at Xiamen University, held a discussion.</p><p><b>I. Judgment on the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that, on the surface, the US Dollar Index exhibits a clear medium- to long-term (2016 to 2018) cyclical pattern. However, both academia and industry seem to lack sufficient research and attention to this issue.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US Dollar Index has experienced two complete cycles from 1971 to 2020. Regarding the focus of market controversy, \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", measurement methods can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, by simulating a peak in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index before the 1970s, around 1967-1968; Second, combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Based on forecasts from multiple financial institutions, including Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can gain a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle by studying the economic cycle and the financial cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to fall under the category of the financial cycle. First, unlike economic cycles, financial cycles are more volatile and longer than traditional economic cycles, lasting approximately 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Secondly, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange trading far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has more financial cycle attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that there is significant controversy among market investors regarding the driving factors behind the dollar cycle. Traditional analytical frameworks focus more on the real economy, while the US domestic economy and relatively short-term driving factors seem insufficient to explain the changes in the dollar cycle, which has financial cycle attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the US economic status, US monetary policy, and international events. First, the US economic position plays a supporting role in the US dollar as a whole, with the correlation coefficient between the US GDP as a percentage of the world and real the US Dollar Index reaching 55.5%. Secondly, US monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the shift in the strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is often ahead of that of the US Dollar Index, mainly because interest rate differentials trigger capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, international events such as the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The Impact of the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors do not seem to pay attention to the impact of the dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror\" or even a \"veil\" of the changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research findings of the academic community, particularly the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, on the financial cycle and the global financial cycle, which are of particular concern.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock markets, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is -44.6%, which means that a weak dollar will promote global trade and economic resilience and help reduce trade imbalances. Secondly, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filtered) is -18.6%, which means that a weak dollar will drive up the stock market. Third, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is -20.3%, meaning that a weak dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and net inflows of global portfolio securities is -36.4%, which means that a weak dollar will promote cross-border capital inflows globally, driving up asset prices and even creating bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the RMB against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is -37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Regarding the US Dollar Cycle and Asset Allocation</b></p><p>The Merrill Lynch clock was once jokingly referred to as an electric fan. Xie Yaxuan, the chief executive, proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research practice, the asset allocation framework should be improved by fully considering the dollar cycle and the financial cycle.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared his team's latest achievement: the WISE investment clock, an improvement based on the Merrill Lynch clock. Unlike traditional Merrill Lynch clocks, the WISE clock has two main innovations: first, it synthesizes financial cycle indicators; and second, it treats real estate as an additional asset. During periods of upward economic and financial cycles, real estate is the primary asset allocation choice, followed by stocks. During periods of upward and downward financial cycles and economic cycles, stocks are the preferred asset allocation choice, followed by bonds; During economic and financial downturns, cash is the preferred asset allocation strategy, followed by bonds. During periods of downturn in the financial cycle and upturn in the economic cycle, commodities are the preferred asset allocation method, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is an inevitable trend. In this process, we should pay more attention to the US dollar cycle and its changes in order to seize corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the US Dollar Index cyclical? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">轩言全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 08:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Since the 1970s, the US Dollar Index has experienced two and a half cycles lasting 16-18 years, but does the US Dollar Index exhibit cyclicality? Has the third round of the US dollar cycle arrived as scheduled? The market remains controversial. Focusing on this issue,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>Chief Macro Analyst Xie Yaxuan and Professor Zhou Yinggang, Vice Dean of the Wang Yanan Institute for Economic Research at Xiamen University, held a discussion.</p><p><b>I. Judgment on the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that, on the surface, the US Dollar Index exhibits a clear medium- to long-term (2016 to 2018) cyclical pattern. However, both academia and industry seem to lack sufficient research and attention to this issue.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US Dollar Index has experienced two complete cycles from 1971 to 2020. Regarding the focus of market controversy, \"Is there a third dollar cycle?\", measurement methods can be used to extend the the US Dollar Index: First, by simulating a peak in the US Dollar Index and the US Dollar Index before the 1970s, around 1967-1968; Second, combine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Based on forecasts from multiple financial institutions, including Citibank, the US Dollar Index will enter a weak cycle from 2021 to 2025.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that we can gain a preliminary understanding of the characteristics of the US dollar cycle by studying the economic cycle and the financial cycle, that is, the US dollar cycle is more likely to fall under the category of the financial cycle. First, unlike economic cycles, financial cycles are more volatile and longer than traditional economic cycles, lasting approximately 8-30 years (Drehmann et al., 2012). Secondly, the proportion of the US dollar in financial activities such as cross-border credit, international debt securities, and foreign exchange trading far exceeds its proportion in real economic activities, which also means that the US dollar cycle has more financial cycle attributes.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Driving factors of the US dollar cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan believes that there is significant controversy among market investors regarding the driving factors behind the dollar cycle. Traditional analytical frameworks focus more on the real economy, while the US domestic economy and relatively short-term driving factors seem insufficient to explain the changes in the dollar cycle, which has financial cycle attributes.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the factors driving the dollar cycle mainly include the US economic status, US monetary policy, and international events. First, the US economic position plays a supporting role in the US dollar as a whole, with the correlation coefficient between the US GDP as a percentage of the world and real the US Dollar Index reaching 55.5%. Secondly, US monetary policy aims to smooth out the economic cycle, but at the same time, it plays an important role in the shift in the strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's policy interest rate is often ahead of that of the US Dollar Index, mainly because interest rate differentials trigger capital inflows or outflows from the United States. Third, international events such as the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971, the Plaza Accord in 1985, the birth of the euro in 1999, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were all important catalysts for the depreciation of the US dollar.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. The Impact of the US Dollar Cycle</b></p><p>Chief Executive Xie Yaxuan pointed out that market investors do not seem to pay attention to the impact of the dollar cycle on the real economy, believing that the dollar is just an exchange rate, a \"mirror\" or even a \"veil\" of the changes in the strength of the real economy. This seems to run counter to the research findings of the academic community, particularly the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, on the financial cycle and the global financial cycle, which are of particular concern.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang believes that the US dollar cycle will have an impact on global trade, stock markets, commodity prices, cross-border capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. First, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and global exports of goods and services is -44.6%, which means that a weak dollar will promote global trade and economic resilience and help reduce trade imbalances. Secondly, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the MSCI Global Index (HP filtered) is -18.6%, which means that a weak dollar will drive up the stock market. Third, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the CRB spot index is -20.3%, meaning that a weak dollar will push up commodity prices. Fourth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and net inflows of global portfolio securities is -36.4%, which means that a weak dollar will promote cross-border capital inflows globally, driving up asset prices and even creating bubbles. Fifth, the correlation coefficient between the US Dollar Index and the RMB against the US dollar is 82.4%, and the correlation coefficient with the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is -37.7%, which means that a weak US dollar may lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Regarding the US Dollar Cycle and Asset Allocation</b></p><p>The Merrill Lynch clock was once jokingly referred to as an electric fan. Xie Yaxuan, the chief executive, proposed that from the perspective of industry and investment research practice, the asset allocation framework should be improved by fully considering the dollar cycle and the financial cycle.</p><p>Professor Zhou Yinggang shared his team's latest achievement: the WISE investment clock, an improvement based on the Merrill Lynch clock. Unlike traditional Merrill Lynch clocks, the WISE clock has two main innovations: first, it synthesizes financial cycle indicators; and second, it treats real estate as an additional asset. During periods of upward economic and financial cycles, real estate is the primary asset allocation choice, followed by stocks. During periods of upward and downward financial cycles and economic cycles, stocks are the preferred asset allocation choice, followed by bonds; During economic and financial downturns, cash is the preferred asset allocation strategy, followed by bonds. During periods of downturn in the financial cycle and upturn in the economic cycle, commodities are the preferred asset allocation method, followed by real estate. Finally, Professor Zhou believes that China's financial industry will accelerate its opening up, and global asset allocation is an inevitable trend. In this process, we should pay more attention to the US dollar cycle and its changes in order to seize corresponding investment opportunities.</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA\">轩言全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37cf1a899f018a102327895848b06a09","relate_stocks":{"FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770659","content_text":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合摩根士丹利、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。三、 关于美元周期的影响谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MEURmain":0.9,"FXE":0.9,"FXC":0.9,"CHFmain":0.9,"MGBPmain":0.9,"FXB":0.9,"YCS":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"AUDmain":0.9,"FXA":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"CADmain":0.9,"EUO":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"NZDmain":0.9,"FXF":0.9,"FXY":0.9,"MAUDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570422292303429","authorId":"3570422292303429","name":"胖虎宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e46136ec0a6bee3b2da277c7ec77409","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570422292303429","authorIdStr":"3570422292303429"},"content":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","text":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","html":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385619695,"gmtCreate":1613541053717,"gmtModify":1704881801593,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385619695","repostId":"1168530249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369391438,"gmtCreate":1614003122424,"gmtModify":1704886740696,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369391438","repostId":"360417639","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":210148195590168,"gmtCreate":1692328007185,"gmtModify":1692328011832,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210148195590168","repostId":"2360255396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2360255396","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1692324354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2360255396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-08-18 10:05","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2360255396","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Many businesses may be under stress because of the macroeconomic environment, but these four companies still managed to increase their dividend payouts.","content":"<div>\n<p>The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-18 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"G13.SI":"云顶新加坡","U96.SI":"胜科工业","P34.SI":"DELFI LIMITED","H02.SI":"虎豹企业"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2360255396","content_text":"The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.Delfi (SGX: P34)Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.The group’s flagship chocolate brands SilverQueen and Ceres are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"U96.SI":1,"G13.SI":1,"H02.SI":1,"P34.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205628050198744,"gmtCreate":1691211693594,"gmtModify":1691211696742,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205628050198744","repostId":"205380242104568","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":205380242104568,"gmtCreate":1691151216760,"gmtModify":1691151224982,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income","htmlText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","listText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","text":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage. [Sly] 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee27826201bf60f99cf6be792e7b5203","width":"1179","height":"1083"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac9a902ccbf8eb717ed3511c3ae171c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a36d0295ac51e5a9e46aadd0b8dfe6","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205380242104568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192569997398160,"gmtCreate":1688043689678,"gmtModify":1688043920140,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86bf9f8564b10aee437035656391c1e5","width":"1170","height":"3073"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192569997398160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568485236928,"gmtCreate":1688043458689,"gmtModify":1688043544032,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/141bf898cbbfbc2a4f35619634cc46d5","width":"1170","height":"4785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568485236928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568755798136,"gmtCreate":1688043384485,"gmtModify":1688043387669,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568755798136","repostId":"191891691782400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191891691782400,"gmtCreate":1687876740529,"gmtModify":1687876777509,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month","htmlText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","listText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","text":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell $XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$buy $XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09332b22a5a140c7d7f1cf10640abac7","width":"1148","height":"785"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac10ffda4b5df4b419681c89a2d9252a","width":"2376","height":"98"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2770019ffe7e9f5b37b281c9c8b069","width":"2398","height":"96"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191891691782400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568715002088,"gmtCreate":1688043376917,"gmtModify":1688043382091,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568715002088","repostId":"191878417490176","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191878417490176,"gmtCreate":1687873499736,"gmtModify":1687922314196,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?","htmlText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","listText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","text":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62f0430c21ed92dfa4bb76d24d3d0f25","width":"1080","height":"1050"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d01148cadd83619a53740baa91c1c02","width":"1349","height":"826"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83af8ed135d5d183a56f14f3121f15bb","width":"994","height":"657"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191878417490176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}