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2023-08-18

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4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends

2023-08-05

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@TigerOptions:💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income

2023-06-29

2023-06-29

2023-06-29

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@OptionsDelta:My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month

2023-06-29

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@Tiger_comments:2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?

2021-02-22

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2021-02-17

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A股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了

2021-02-07

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美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210148195590168","repostId":"2360255396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2360255396","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1692324354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2360255396?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-08-18 10:05","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2360255396","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Many businesses may be under stress because of the macroeconomic environment, but these four companies still managed to increase their dividend payouts.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The earnings season is almost ending.</p><p>With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.</p><p>It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.</p><p>The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.</p><p>However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.</p><p>We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.</p><h2 id=\"id_2259839761\">Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)</h2><p>Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.</p><p>The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.</p><p>For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.</p><p>The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.</p><p>Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.</p><p>The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.</p><p>The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.</p><p>Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.</p><h2 id=\"id_3100394615\">Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)</h2><p>Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.</p><p>With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.</p><p>Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.</p><p>Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.</p><p>An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.</p><p>Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.</p><p>RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.</p><p>Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.</p><p>Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.</p><h2 id=\"id_3254584318\">Delfi (SGX: P34)</h2><p>Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.</p><p>The group’s flagship chocolate brands <em>SilverQueen</em> and <em>Ceres</em> are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.</p><p>1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.</p><p>Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.</p><p>Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.</p><p>In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.</p><p>Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.</p><p>CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.</p><h2 id=\"id_317460695\">Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)</h2><p>Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.</p><p>The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.</p><p>In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.</p><p>SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.</p><p>Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.</p><p>The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.</p><p>SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.</p><p>Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.</p><p>Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.</p><p>However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.</p></body></html>","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-18 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"U96.SI":"胜科工业","H02.SI":"虎豹企业","P34.SI":"DELFI LIMITED","G13.SI":"云顶新加坡"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2360255396","content_text":"The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.Delfi (SGX: P34)Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.The group’s flagship chocolate brands SilverQueen and Ceres are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205628050198744,"gmtCreate":1691211693594,"gmtModify":1691211696742,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205628050198744","repostId":"205380242104568","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":205380242104568,"gmtCreate":1691151216760,"gmtModify":1691151224982,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572212908677301","authorIdStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income","htmlText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","listText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","text":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage. [Sly] 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee27826201bf60f99cf6be792e7b5203","width":"1179","height":"1083"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac9a902ccbf8eb717ed3511c3ae171c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a36d0295ac51e5a9e46aadd0b8dfe6","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205380242104568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192569997398160,"gmtCreate":1688043689678,"gmtModify":1688043920140,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86bf9f8564b10aee437035656391c1e5","width":"1170","height":"3073"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192569997398160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568485236928,"gmtCreate":1688043458689,"gmtModify":1688043544032,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/141bf898cbbfbc2a4f35619634cc46d5","width":"1170","height":"4785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568485236928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568755798136,"gmtCreate":1688043384485,"gmtModify":1688043387669,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568755798136","repostId":"191891691782400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191891691782400,"gmtCreate":1687876740529,"gmtModify":1687876777509,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month","htmlText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","listText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","text":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell $XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$buy $XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09332b22a5a140c7d7f1cf10640abac7","width":"1148","height":"785"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac10ffda4b5df4b419681c89a2d9252a","width":"2376","height":"98"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2770019ffe7e9f5b37b281c9c8b069","width":"2398","height":"96"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191891691782400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568715002088,"gmtCreate":1688043376917,"gmtModify":1688043382091,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568715002088","repostId":"191878417490176","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191878417490176,"gmtCreate":1687873499736,"gmtModify":1687922314196,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?","htmlText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","listText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","text":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62f0430c21ed92dfa4bb76d24d3d0f25","width":"1080","height":"1050"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d01148cadd83619a53740baa91c1c02","width":"1349","height":"826"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83af8ed135d5d183a56f14f3121f15bb","width":"994","height":"657"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191878417490176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369391438,"gmtCreate":1614003122424,"gmtModify":1704886740696,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369391438","repostId":"360417639","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385619695,"gmtCreate":1613541053717,"gmtModify":1704881801593,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385619695","repostId":"1168530249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168530249","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b66b3e97274759989352a7b9f80611"},"pubTimestamp":1613533827,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168530249?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 11:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168530249","media":"中国基金报","summary":"春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武","content":"<div>\n<p>春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-02-17 11:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168530249","content_text":"春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，上证综指上涨13.87%，创业板指上涨64.96%，公募基金发行屡创纪录，权益投资再度成为居民配置的焦点。回顾这一年，估值扩张是推升股票市场上涨的主要原因，背后的原因主要有二，其一，疫情暴发后全球央行的联合宽松，推动了无风险利率快速下行；其二，货币宽松推升了风险偏好的持续回升。此外，经济复苏及其预期也推动了下半年市场的风格切换。新年伊始，万象更新，2021年宏观环境更加复杂，市场的多空与风格的优劣主要取决于两大因素。其一，全球货币政策的退出或边际收紧的速度；其二，我国出口的韧劲持续超预期的程度。就货币政策而言，历史告诉我们，联储政策的退出应是远虑，但国内市场的情况似乎又表明，我们的货币政策已出现边际收紧的迹象，至少此种近忧已经存在。货币货政的松紧，将直接影响估值扩张的前景。就经济复苏角度而言，有观点认为，2020年中国经济的率先复苏，主要源于出口，而出口的亮眼又源于国内保供应，海外保需求的巧合。据此，以医疗、机电等产品为代表，出口增速亮眼。然而，区分清楚这种高增长是疫情冲击下的阶段性应激，还是疫情催化带来的新市场开拓，这两种假设，可推演的出口数据将会有显著差异，亦将直接影响到2021年中国经济复苏的强度与节奏。面对这种复杂的局面，我们应围绕三个方面开展新一年的投资计划。首先，大势顺势，立足战略配置，紧密跟踪，交叉验证，莫盲目判断多空；其次，风格均衡，适当战术倾斜，保护好β，努力获取α。第三，紧跟业绩，去伪存真，避免预期落空，并且适当关注低估值、高分红的绝对收益机会。经历了两年丰收，2021年要特别做好风险控制，降低收益预期。2021年牛熊尚不确定，能够确定的是牛年，恭祝各位牛年大吉！富国基金曹文俊：“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理的最高评价2019年以来，公募权益基金取得了骄人战绩，偏股混合型基金的近两年收益率中位数超过100%，大幅跑赢了指数。（注：近两年上证指数涨幅39.26%。数据来源于Wind，截至2020年末。）公募基金经理受到投资者的关注度也越来越高，在我心目中，“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理的最高评价。“靠谱”二字虽然朴实无华，却饱含沉甸甸的份量，基金经理若能得此评价如获殊荣。“靠谱”的含义是多层次的，包含锐意进取的工作态度、长期优秀的绩效表现、有效的风控与回撤管理等多方面要素。锐意进取是基金经理必备的工作态度。首先，公募基金经理是一种性质特殊的职业，“追求卓越”是基金经理的职业目标，也是“生存之道”。有别于其他大多数职业，公募基金经理只有证明自身“卓越”才能使自己的工作体现出价值。如果管理业绩无法持续跑赢指数，那投资人会选择管理费用更低的指数基金产品进行替代；如果管理业绩无法持续跑赢同业，那所管理产品的份额必将逐步流失，流向其他优秀的同业，对于雇主而言你的价值也越来越低。因此，对于基金经理而言，平庸即意味着职业生涯的生存危机，如何在这场漫长投资马拉松比赛中脱颖而出，锐意进取的工作态度是必备的条件。其次，基金经理是个学习型的职业，面对新科技、新产品、新模式，要报以开放的心态，努力尝试与理解。市场投资环境随着技术进步、监管升级、投资者结构变化而日新月异。每一位基金经理，也在不断审视自身的投资方法论，补齐短板和盲点领域，避免“一招鲜、吃遍天”的路径依赖，力求自身投资方法的有效性与时俱进。最后，在这场投资马拉松比赛中，如何使自己始终保持良好的竞技状态是取得优秀绩效的重要前提条件，“锐意进取”是鞭策自我保持良好状态的驱动力。长期优秀的绩效表现是每个基金经理所追求的目标，也是持有人梦寐以求的愿望。长期优秀的绩效表现只是投资表现的最终结果，背后是靠一套长期有效的方法论以及将其付诸实践的工作流程进行支撑。以我过往16年的投资研究经验来看，任何一套投资方法论体系都很难是尽善尽美的，经历市场牛熊切换，在70-80%时间段能够解释市场的运行规律，这套方法论体系的有效性就已经相当高了。运用这套方法论体系，我认为2021年有几条宏观确定性线索：首先全球经济复苏是确定的。欧美政府在疫情发生后对居民救助比较及时，通过发放救助资金，能够帮助疫情之后的经济较快速度恢复。可见的是，美国经济的家庭部门的资产负债表并没有受到创伤，居民储蓄率不降反升，房地产市场也欣欣向荣。即便美国企业部门的杠杆率略有攀升，但是相比2008年金融危机时还是降低了很多。所以全球经济复苏的方向是确定的，节奏上由于疫苗接种的快慢，可能会早或晚一个季度。第二个确定性是国内消费的持续回升，特别是中低端的消费。疫情受损的最大的领域主要集中在餐饮、旅游、家政服务等社会服务业，除了外卖没受影响外，受损行业的景气度和该些劳动人群的收入是直接相关的。所以，消费领域还是不断地出现刺激性手段，包括政治局会议提到的“需求侧改革”，本质上就是收入分配改革，因为中低端消费人群的边际消费倾向比较高，高端消费人群的边际消费倾向比较低，通过税收调节这种手段，去增加中低端消费人群的收入水平，然后把整体消费带起来。随着经济回暖，收入预期的稳定性和增长持续性将不断改善，有助于提升消费意愿。第三，出口的火爆在海外疫情比较明显恢复之前，大概率将持续。未来两三年，原来在2020年提升的份额里面可能面临退回，但在疫情环境下，新拓展的客户粘性较强，份额丢失率比较低。举例而言，此前我研究的一家做特种管材的企业，其壁垒较高，但在过去海外市场的开拓十分缓慢，虽然它的产品性价比高，但以前海外客户一直不给认证机会；随着2020年新冠疫情造成的超低油价，使得海外油企降成本的诉求格外强烈，因此上述公司获得了0到1的突破机会。若认证进展顺利，公司产品未来有望在国际市场上分得一席。还有一个确定性的主线就是流动性格局，2021年的超额流动性比2020年大概率要少。当然，经历不同市场风格轮换，基金经理需要不断打磨自己的投资方法论体系，就像软件系统一样不断升级，给方法论的短板和盲区打上补丁，避免在方法论有效性不足的市场环境中犯下致命错误。方法论有效性不足如同司机驾驶着仪表盘失灵的汽车，是一件非常危险的事情。基金经理应当清楚地意识到在何种市场环境下方法论可能失效，并将风险敞口控制在较小的范围内。而当方法论行之有效的时候，敢于果断决策，将自身的优势转化为投资端的超额收益。另一个层面，行之有效的方法论之于基金经理，也未必都能形成良好的投资结果，实践过程中基金经理最大的两个瓶颈点在于精力分配和眼界格局。通常而言，基金经理的工作时间较大多数职业来的要长。研究的深入、判断置信度的提高需要案头研究、实地调研、路演交流、专家访谈等等一系列琐碎的研究工作做支持。基金经理的工作就是在有限时间里不断地按照轻重缓急将需要研究的行业和公司进行排序，尽可能地将自己的重仓股和重仓行业的理解水平提升至显著超越同业平均水平的高度，对相关公司和行业的跟踪紧密程度也达到市场一线水平，长此以往才能积累出显著的超额收益。这里，不得不提及研究平台的支持和基金经理自身的能力圈的积累。市场有涨跌起伏，行业有周期跌宕，有心的基金经理通过一轮轮的行业周期轮换观察，对行业的运行规律认识逐步加深，当下一轮行业景气到来时努力做到对机会的把握更敏感，对投资的判断更准确。每年对两三个行业和个股深入研究，四五年后这就是一笔宝贵的财富，即所谓的“研究的复利”。风险控制与回撤管理可能是大家平时讨论较少的一个话题，但未来对于基金经理而言其重要性与日俱增。2020年，理财市场发生了剧变，净值型产品发行力度加大，低风险偏好的理财资金面临着预期收益率不明确的困扰，而权益类基金的赚钱效应使得部分低风险偏好的理财资金转向了权益类产品。从一个长周期的维度来看，权益类基金的年复合超过了15%，可谓相当可观，然而大多数持有人的投资感观与之相去甚远。究其原因，主要是由于A股市场此前巨大的波动率以及投资者追涨杀跌的羊群效应共同造成的，最终导致了虽然权益类基金赚了很多钱，但持有人并未真实分享到。回顾过去几年理财投资环境的变化，从“房住不炒”的一再坚持到P2P产品的清理、信托类产品的萎缩，再到银行理财产品净值化、产品收益率日趋下降，“简单”的投资产品越来越难找到，权益类基金日益成为广大投资者投资理财的选择方向。在追求收益回报的同时兼顾组合的稳定度，组合的风险控制和回撤管理将成为基金经理的一个新的重要课题。风险控制和回撤管理意味着行业偏离度和个股集中度需要严格控制，在不分散精力的前提下，有效地将个股风险以组合的方式分散开来，长期业绩超额收益来源于个股和行业阿尔法的选择，而非短时间内个股和行业贝塔的暴露，最终做到在风险可控的前提下追求收益率最大化。“靠谱”的基金经理需要经过时间的历练、需要经过市场的洗礼，“靠谱”的基金经理需要持之以恒、需要乐观积极，“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理至高无上的褒奖。牛年新春来了，预祝各位投资者新春佳节快乐，牛年投资顺利、牛气冲天，能够寻找到心仪的“靠谱”基金经理进行长期投资，分享牛市带来的丰硕成果。万家基金黄兴亮：恪守能力圈，坚持长期成长策略万家灯火时，四海笙歌起。值新春佳节之际，借此机会祝福广大投资者新春快乐，平安幸福！牛年已至，我们同样期待新的一年，公募基金行业能一如既往发挥普惠金融的专业优势，使投资者在亲历市场过程中拥有更多获得感。国内资本市场将步入第四个十年，公募基金作为其中的重要参与者，见证着证券市场的长足发展。近两年，公募明显的赚钱效应助推散户参与市场思维转变，公募基金用收益表现圈粉。透过缩影，近年来A股投资者的结构，已经出现较大变化。无论是从持有量角度或者是交易量维度，机构投资者的占比都出现了较大幅度提升。公募基金的规模增长与北向互联互通机制的助力，同样推动着市场向更加成熟的方向迈进。同时改革也为市场蓬勃成长提供了密集能量。注册制的落地，直接加大了市场供给，帮助新兴产业上市进度提速，这将会是载入资本市场大事记中非常成功的一笔。随着未来注册制的进一步推广及涨跌幅限制的进一步打开，投资者犯错的成本及投机的成本都在无形中被拉高，这就对资产管理人提出了更高要求，对投资标的选择也需要慎之又慎。随着近年较大体量基金产品及管理规模超几百亿上千亿基金经理的涌现，一定程度上也引领市场风格的变化。前期市场常被提及的抱团板块，基本都是机构关注较多并经过市场长期验证的各行业头部公司。包括1月份曾出现过个别交易日少数公司大涨，但整体市场走势下行的现象，这些因素都在验证A股市场分化加剧的判断。抱团现象，可以说是A股不断推进制度改革，生态不断演进的长期必然结果。这背后隐含的是市场参与者在制度更加完善的时代大背景下，权衡风险与收益之后所作出的自然选择。业务模式、成长空间、管理治理等因素看得明晰，业务风险较小的头部公司将持续获得资本市场的青睐。长期来看，我们倾向于认为A股仍然会继续保持这种长期分化趋势，这种趋势与制度改革方向、投资者结构变化都息息相关。机构投资者相对更为专业，会倾向于选择一些基本面较好的企业。在A股的新生态中，主题型或者以博弈和交易为主的机会愈发难以把握。反过来一些好的行业、产业以及活跃发展的企业，其业务的持续性会更加强韧，其实这种情况和海外成熟市场已经非常相像。但我们也需要意识到很多行业头部公司的竞争优势明显，体量、份额很大，这就导致将来实现连续高速增长的挑战也会比较大。回归到投资上，不同的投资者会有不同的选择。我们的长期成长策略与目前的抱团板块有一定的偏离。我们倾向于去选择那些未来增长空间巨大的公司，这通常意味着相应的公司还处在仍需要成长的阶段，可能也还不是行业的头部企业，业务的不确定性可能会相对较高，但未来的潜力也会比较大。我们希望看到一家公司3年、5年、10年以后，能比今天大很多，最好与目前相比能实现翻倍，甚至是数量级的增长，我们希望看到这样的可能性。但前述提及的头部公司中，可能部分企业多年以后仍能保持一定增速，但应该较难发生巨变。去挖掘一些发展阶段还较早，在行业竞争格局上仍处在追赶者位置的企业，对我们来说更具研究价值。当然，这其中的挑战很大，也可能会面临失误的风险，所以洞察力、定力和耐力也是极其重要的因素。立足于当下大的行业发展格局，科技创新的方向上很多环节国内企业仍较薄弱，这里面会有很大的挑战，但也蕴含着很大的机会。市场瞬息变化，经历过市场的牛熊转换，就更能切身体会没有一个通行的、适合每一位投资人的策略。同样，对基金产品而言，每只基金也都有属于其本身的能力圈。在新的一年，万家投研团队也会继续专注于资管能力的沉淀精进，深植于市场环境做好研究与投资。珍视信任的重量，为每一份托付全力以赴！华泰柏瑞吕慧建：中国经济的进化和提升：从城运会、全运会，到奥运会驱动A股走势分化2021年新年伊始，A股市场开盘后连续上涨。但是，接下来的走势却让人“不适”：到2月份的第一个星期（2月5日），4070个上市公司中（已剔除2020年12月1日后上市的），没有下跌的股票仅仅790个，占比19.4%。股票收益率的中位数是-12.3%。如果你是一个偏股混合型基金的基金经理，你的基金净值没有下跌，那么你的排名是倒数15.8%分位。偏股混合型基金收益率的中位数是+6.25%。股票市场走势分化之大、基金配置和市场整体特征偏离之大，由此可见一斑。实际上，这个情况已经延续多年。中国经济的进化和提升：从城运会、全运会，到奥运会。股票市场的走势是经济基本面的折射。A股市场走势分化，是中国经济增长结构性分化的反映。总体而言，中国经济在2010年开始持续放缓，2016年GDP增速破7，19年为6.0%，2020年全球一枝独秀，2.3%。但行业增速分化，微观层面的差异更为剧烈。以茅指数为例，成份股公司在2017年～2019年主营收入平均增速分别为41%、37%、26%，2020年前三季度仍保持在25%的高位。如果把市场竞争比作一场体育竞技的话，2010年以前可以比作是一场城市运动会，众多公司都取得了巨大的成功；从2010年到2017年是一场全国运动会，优势企业越做越大，成为行业龙头。随着经济增速放缓，市场竞争加剧，中美贸易摩擦和新冠疫情进一步加速了不同公司之间的分化，小公司加速退出市场，一些中国龙头公司继续增长，进一步稳固了全球行业龙头地位，摘下“奥运”桂冠。投资逻辑变迁：产业逻辑、终局思维2017年是A股市场的一个分水岭。在2017年以前，A股市场普遍存在小盘股溢价。2017年A股市场龙头企业第一次比较普遍地获得了估值溢价。所以可以看到，2017年以来，A股市场不同行业之间的估值出现分化。2020年以来，优势企业的估值溢价进一步扩大。2020年，市场竞争的终局已经更加明朗。优势企业进一步加大海外市场投入，竞争力提升，在全球产业链中的地位继续提升。而对于二、三线公司，越来越多的公司开始掉队，退出市场的速度将加快。2020年前三季度，A股中有48%的公司主营收入出现负增长，55%的上市公司收入增速低于GDP名义增速（3.59%）。A股市场的投资逻辑也随之发生变化。过去，机构投资者非常重视未来1～3年盈利增速变化，以当年或未来一年的盈利增速给公司做估值定位。现在，投资更加注重公司的发展前景，把资金集中到“未来的赢家”上。一些优秀公司，竞争力突出，行业地位稳定，市场以长期产业空间给公司估值。2021年经济复苏：我们应该预期什么？2020年中国经济四个季度GDP增速分别为-6.8%、3.2%、4.9%、6.5%。其中四季度的增速已经超过19年的年度增速，接近中国经济的潜在增长率，进一步上行潜力有限。2021年海外经济将进一步复苏。但是，对拉动中国出口的动力有限。以美国为例， 2020年实物消费并没有因为疫情而下降，其中四季度消费品消费支出增速为6%，为近年的一个高点。所以，美国经济复苏将更多地表现为制造业重启，和服务业复苏，对中国经济拉动有限。所以，2021年中国经济复苏或将主要体现在服务业复苏。中国制造业已经在2020年恢复正常水平，但是服务业仍未完成修复。比如，中国星级酒店收入在2020年三季度仍为负数，-24.52%；餐饮业在四季度才恢复到基本持平水平。预计这些行业2021年将持续向好。2021年中国经济结构性增长的动力仍然值得期待。1、 技术进步、商业模式创新驱动增长。创新是体现中国经济活力的一个重要特征，推动中国经济结构重构、提升，开辟出新的成长路径。预计未来会有更多海外上市公司回归A股，为投资提供更多潜在标的。2、 高端制造业龙头的加冕之路：改写全球产业格局。在国内庞大需求支持下，中国工程师红利将继续兑现。在高端制造业，中国制造成本优势无以伦比，技术进步加快，在众多领域的头部公司中将出现一大批中国公司的身影。3、 消费持续增长。中国成为全球中产人数规模最多的市场。消费持续升级，优秀公司继续扩大规模，保持业绩持续增长。展望2021年，中国经济将保持稳定增长。经济政策 “不急转弯”，但是政策重心必然逐步从 “不急”转向“转弯”，从而抑制A股估值扩张。所以，经历了过去两年的较高收益后，我们应该对2021年A股市场的投资收益率持理性预期。进入新年，辞旧迎新，我们继续看好在代表中国经济发展方向的行业、竞争优势扩大、保持持续增长的公司。最后，祝各位投资人牛年大吉，财运滚滚，心情愉快，投资顺利！安信基金副总经理陈振宇：2021年权益市场“上有顶，下有底”资本市场在金融系统中有牵一发而动全身的作用，这是2018年12月份中央经济会议提出的论点，当时我们判断未来十年甚至二十年，权益市场的地位将不可同日而语。在当前宏观背景下，要改变间接融资为主的市场环境，唯有通过大力发展资本市场，才能够真正推动科技创新与资本市场的良性互动。而对于2021年的权益市场，我们的整体观点是“上有顶，下有底”。“下有底”是因为经济复苏态势越来越明显，同时货币政策也明确“不急转弯”，要保持一定的一致性和稳定性，所以我们认为整体上有机会。“上有顶”是因为不急转弯不代表不转弯，经济的复苏还不足以支撑市场造就超级大牛市，当经济正常化以后，在全球疫苗普及下，较高的宏观杠杆率（去年三季度宏观杠杆率达到270.1%）以及去年超发累积的货币必然会有回收的动作，只不过可能是逐步分布在全年，下半年可能更明显一些。总体而言，今年市场还是有一些结构性机会，有一部分高估，但仍然可以找到不少投资标的。具体来看，A股潜在收益率和国债收益率相当（上证综指剔除负值后的PE中位数的倒数为3.5%，十年期国债收益率3.21%），权益市场整体处于略好于债券的相对中性的位置。从跨市场范围比较，港股恒生指数、A股的上证指数、沪深300、中证500性价比较高，但创业板偏贵；从A股历史估值分位数的角度来看，不同指数的估值分位数分化较大，以PB的估值分位数为例，创业板指最高达94.5%，最低的中证500为17.9%，上证综指为43.2%。A股固然有高估的投资标的，但是估值分位数偏低的投资标的也不少。从国际范围来看，欧美疫情的控制和经济复苏在2021年是大概率事件，我们关注美国10年期国债收益率的变化对于长久期高估值公司的影响，因为其反映了外资融资成本的变化趋势，当这一指标快速上行的时候，外资青睐的长久期的资产的估值将承压（分母端无风险利率上行），相应的，这一类在2019-2020年涨幅巨大的公司的股价可能会面临调整的压力。结构上，我们判断2021年内较多时间里，价值风格相对成长风格占优，因为随着中国经济从疫情中复苏和货币政策恢复常态化，全年社融的趋势是被动收紧的，预计社融存量同比增速将从去年最高16%逐级下降到今年底11%左右的水平，总体宏观流动性是收缩的，叠加实体经济对流动性的需求增加，导致滞留在资本市场的流动性是下降的趋势。这种环境下，注重盈利和估值相匹配的价值风格，可能跑赢靠流动性驱动的成长风格。我们预计疫情导致的低基数和企业盈利的恢复将带来一批企业靓丽的盈利增长，今年选股的关键在于盈利增长和估值相匹配，顺周期行业相对可能更有优势。对于今年市场热议的机构抱团现象，我们认为这是一个结果。首先机构投资在A股中的比重的增加是长期政策导向，其次过去两年基金行业跑出了明显的超额收益，促使个人投资者也增加了资产配置中投资基金的比例。而在专业化的价值投资的整体框架下，真正的好公司是稀缺的，使得稀缺的好公司获得更多的机构资金的青睐。但同时应该看到，今年随着经济的复苏，货币政策回到中性化，有一些没那么优秀的公司基本面也将出现较大的改善，机构投资者会通过挖掘新的投资机会，使得风格更趋于均衡。因此，我们预计当前比较极端的分化现象会在今年内趋向于均衡。总体而言,在经历了2019-2020年两年基金整体较好的走势之后，2021年的投资回报预期需要适当放低，今年不会是轻松的一年，市场震荡有可能加大，但仍然能够维持区间震荡，基于企业盈利增长去挖掘新的投资机会尤为重要。安信基金一直高度重视投研体系的搭建，坚持秉承基本面研究驱动的价值投资理念，这使得我们取得了过去5年权益类基金业绩排名11%，以及固收类基金业绩排名19%的成绩（数据来源：银河证券）。未来一年A股市场仍然有价值风格占优的结构性机会，安信基金自下而上的挖掘投资机会的能力有助于把握这样的结构性的机会。我们有信心，也将继续勤勉地努力,为投资者带来中长期的超越市场的稳健收益及良好的投资体验。长信基金副总经理安昀：牛年投资须躬行在我看来，2021年经济大概率是延续复苏态势。中国经济此轮复苏较早，去年年内环比复苏、今年上半年同比复苏很明确。今年下半年欧美的经济复苏可能会接力，从而带动中国经济继续待在复苏通道之中。一方面是即便疫情反复，各国的应对也有了经验，难以再次造成休克式的影响；另一方面是此轮疫情中国的出口抢占了一定的份额，在全球经济复苏中会表现更好。那么今年的收益预期到底如何？我认为还是有可为空间的。对于主动选股者来说，只要排除了市场大幅回调的风险，那么还是可以做结构性行情的。一方面，目前市场最为忌惮的是货币政策的变化，但是货币政策实际上是内生于经济增长和通货膨胀的，随着经济复苏的进展，实体回报率提升，市场利率大概率会往上走。“不急转弯”已经是一个最好的结果，今年是非常特殊的一年，非常需要稳定，因为调控主动造成波动的概率很小。从投资方向来看，底线应该是避免资本产生永久性损失。巴菲特认为永久性损失大致是两种情况，一是用了杠杆，扛不起；二是持有了毁灭价值的公司，成为时间的敌人。投资标的的底线是至少可以用时间来换空间，要避免持有用很长时间也换不回空间的标的。换句话说，就是要持有时间的朋友，规避时间的敌人。这是主要矛盾，买卖点是效率问题，是比较次要的。投资收益的主要来源是持有的优质公司的长期持续增长，次要来源才是低买高卖。低买高卖涉及频繁决策，且机会频率不好估计，不适合作为收益的主要来源。对于优质公司的界定，从数据上看主要是两项指标，一是能尽量长时间保持较高的资本回报率；二是拥有充裕的自由现金流。从定性看主要是四个方面。一是所处行业空间大且需求稳定，产品生命周期长；二是拥有较为深广的壁垒或护城河，且随着时间推移会加强；三是优质的管理层，这一点很难衡量，建议诉诸于股东背景、股权结构、董事会构成、管理层背景、管理层激励、管理层分配资源的能力和结果、费用和成本控制等等偏定量的可衡量的指标；四是财务稳健，拥有充沛的自由现金流，这使得企业能更大概率度过行业困顿期，且有机会扩展份额。以上是我投资看好的方向，也会关注一些新东西，感受时代脉搏。大成基金石国武：不可贪胜，不可不胜一、2020年经济和权益市场回顾在全球宏观经济“低增长、高负债、低利率”的背景下，2020年的黑天鹅新冠疫情对全球社会和经济带来巨大冲击，进一步导致社会的分化、经济效率的下降和宏观杠杆率的提升。各国政府果断采取了史无前例的债务刺激政策，保证了社会和经济的稳定，全球权益市场表现靓眼，明显受益于货币宽松的环境。中国对疫情的良好控制带来经济的迅速恢复，同时得益于持续的科技投入、工程师红利和完整的产业链配套，中国龙头企业的国际竞争力明显提升。在政策当局保持政策定力的背景下，中国宏观经济指标持续向好，尤其是出口份额大幅度上升。以大成基金重点投资的某出口非洲为主的手机企业为例，在短暂的疫情压制后，出口智能机发货量屡创新高，不仅补回疫情损失，在市场规模和份额上都取得历史性的突破。A股市场在总体表现靓眼的背景下，更为突出的特征是估值分化，以中证800为例，中位数回报不足8%，与公募基金的回报差距十分巨大。分化的背后主要在于：赛道为王、强者恒强和专业致胜。随着国内产业环境的变化、公募基金投研体系专业能力的提升和注册制的持续深化，专业投资者将体现出越来越明显的优势。二、2021年的经济和政策展望展望2012年的宏观经济和政策，我们最为关注两个方面：全球货币堰塞湖的效应和治理、中国政策当局制定的十四五规划。虽然经历了2020年史无前例的财政货币化的刺激计划，从目前政策表态看，全球财政和货币刺激计划依然持续加码。全球货币堆积的堰塞湖带来的结构性通胀效应未来会如何发酵是对货币持有者的巨大挑战。周小川在《拓展通货膨胀的概念与度量》的文章中分析了传统通胀度量的缺陷和通胀的体验的问题，对货币贬值的担忧已经带来货币持有者明显的焦虑情绪。2021年是中国十四五规划的开局之年。深化供给侧结构性改革，加快形成“国内大循环为主，国内国际双循环”的发展格局是总的指导思想。十四五规划的重点包括安全发展观、新型城镇化和创新驱动发展等。其中，安全发展观所包含的国防安全、粮食安全、能源安全和产业安全等值得高度重视。三、投资策略的选择2021年权益市场的投资，我们判断通胀的表现形式和政策应对是最为核心的宏观变量，微观上企业盈利增长的确定性和弹性是投资者偏好的方向。除了我们一直关注的社会需求变迁和企业竞争力的消长外，我们会侧重布局以下方向：(1) 受益于海内外经济修复的顺周期行业，如化工、有色、农业等；(2) 处于长周期上升的行业，比如消费、健康、军工、新能源等；(3) 因流动性和经营周期等短期因素被市场抛弃的细分行业龙头。经历过去两年的高回报和宽松货币环境回归正常化，我们对赛道广受追捧、但公司基本面没有支撑的风口公司保持警惕。交银施罗德基金陈俊华：感谢市场给予的机遇 全球比较筛选标的2020年，市场带给我们的最深的体会就是：极致。回想一年前，大家度过了第一个，要戴口罩测体温，才能去超市采买的春节，惴惴不安的情绪在2020年2月3日，开市第一天，得到了极致的体现——经历过那一天的投资人，估计都印象深刻。如果说那天的极致还被预估了部分，那么接下来，疫情的扩散、实体经济的变化、市场的波动，一连串的意想不到不断的发生，超出了我们所有人的预期。可以说，2月3日，只是市场极致波动的一个开始。疫情的影响已经不能用短期波动来评判，由此衍生的是一系列的对实体经济、产业链分布、股市的中期、甚至长期的深远影响。回顾整个2020年，市场一直在围绕“疫情”变化来挖掘投资机会，上半年，防御为主，投资机会主要体现在医药、必选等板块；下半年，伴随疫情得到控制，开始预期经济企稳，消费、科技重新被关注。每一次的演绎，都超出了历史的估值水平上限，换句话说，股票的“估值弹性”超出了大家的预期。过去一年，我们的操作仍沿用了过往：从确定性（确定性的而业绩，确定性的收益空间）角度去筛选股票，取得了一定的投资收益。与此同时，我们也深刻感受到了市场与以往的不同：首先，越来越多的投资人更加关注企业的风险防控能力、对客户的价值创造以及对社会的价值贡献。或者说，投资人更加偏重从中、长期的“综合价值创造”角度，去评判是否给予上市公司溢价，而非简单的事件驱动或业绩驱动来评判。一个直观的结果就是：大家偏好“龙头”。此外，这场疫情，让我们更加直观的感受到所处的实体经济的韧性与优势所在。我们拥有全球最全的生产制造供应链和最大的消费服务市场。上市、交易规则优化后，我们看到越来越多的各行各业的优质企业登录A股和港股资本市场，为投资人提供了多样化的投资领域。参考券商做的统计，全球范围内，统计市值在50亿美金以上的消费、科技、医药类上市公司，能够连续2018\\19年保持15%增速的公司，全球只有209家，而中国就有超过120家。作为投资人，我们有更为广泛的可选范围。这一点来说，我们是幸运的。最后，海外投资人也越来越关注中国。伴随沪深港通的开放、QFII额度的取消，令海外投资人更加便利地参与到A股的投资中来。我们看到截止2020年末，海外投资人持有A股的市值比例已经和国内公募持有市值相当了；这意味着，A股面对的不再是单一市场内的对比评判了，它更多的融入到了全球股票投资配置中。以上这些变化，让我们会更加坚定从全球比较的视野去筛选股票，评判风险收益比，寻找确定性的投资机会。展望2021年，我们仍然是乐观的。首先，全球范围内，对比宏观经济增速和市场估值，A股和港股是最有吸引力的。2021年，尽管可能有波折，但经济复苏是大概率事件。在全球大的经济体中，中国的经济增速仍有望是最好的；估值水平，尽管创业板估值在历史高位，超过当年50xPE，但沪深300和恒生指数的PE估值只有不足20x，这个水平是低于道琼斯、标普、日经和欧洲的主要股市。其次，我们拥有全球应对能力最好的制造业企业和消费服务类企业。在经济复苏的阶段，谁能够率先提供优质、稳定的产品和服务，谁就有望获取超额市场份额。我们将专注寻找这样的优质企业。最后，比较而言，我们认为港股的机会可能会更多。一方面源自2020年多个消费、互联网企业在港股上市；而二次上市的中概股业有望进入港股通范畴之内，这位我们提供了更多的新增标的。另一方面，港股市场经历了2018-19-20年三年的估值压缩，整体的估值水平在全球范围都是偏低的；这为我们提供了较大的安全边界。总结来说，2021年，必将有新的超预期的投资点会出现。我们首先要做的，是国际比较，选取我们特有的（稀缺性），真实需求在扩大（必需性）、商业化运行模式在形成（成长性）、企业竞争力在提升（“信”价比）的企业。感谢这么多的优秀的企业上市，感谢市场给予我们机遇。我们将一如既往，勤勉进取，拓展能力圈，更好地理解产业变迁的步伐，努力分享更多的优秀企业带来的投资收益，为投资人创造价值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389392332,"gmtCreate":1612680052526,"gmtModify":1704873478235,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570099321960653","authorIdStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389392332","repostId":"2109770659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109770659","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612571686,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109770659?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770659","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?","content":"<p>从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。</p><p><b>一、 关于美元周期的判断</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>三、 关于美元周期的影响</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置</b></p><p>美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。</p><p>周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-06 08:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA><strong>轩言全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37cf1a899f018a102327895848b06a09","relate_stocks":{"EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770659","content_text":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合摩根士丹利、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。三、 关于美元周期的影响谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570422292303429","authorId":"3570422292303429","name":"胖虎宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e46136ec0a6bee3b2da277c7ec77409","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570422292303429","authorIdStr":"3570422292303429"},"content":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","text":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","html":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":389392332,"gmtCreate":1612680052526,"gmtModify":1704873478235,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+1","listText":"+1","text":"+1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389392332","repostId":"2109770659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109770659","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1612571686,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109770659?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 08:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770659","media":"轩言全球宏观","summary":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?","content":"<p>从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。</p><p><b>一、 关于美元周期的判断</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571730907423.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571749445101.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1175\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>三、 关于美元周期的影响</b></p><p>谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。</p><p>周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571767912605.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"733\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置</b></p><p>美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。</p><p>周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210206/1612571780285987.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1582886636882","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期如约而至?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-06 08:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA><strong>轩言全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37cf1a899f018a102327895848b06a09","relate_stocks":{"EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","FXA":"澳元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares","FXF":"瑞士法郎ETF-CurrencyShares","FXC":"加元ETF-CurrencyShares","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P-o-ghtwNNJynh827FHTUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770659","content_text":"从70年代以来，美元指数已经历了两轮半16-18年时长的周期，但是美元指数是否存在周期性?第三轮美元周期是否如约而至?市场仍然存在争议。聚焦此问题，招商证券宏观首席分析师谢亚轩与厦门大学王亚南经济研究院副院长周颖刚教授展开讨论。一、 关于美元周期的判断谢亚轩首席认为，从表面看，美元指数存在明显的中长(16至18年)周期性。但是不论是学界还是业界似乎对此都缺乏足够的研究和关注。周颖刚教授认为，从1971年到2020年，美元指数已呈现两轮完整周期。关于市场争议焦点“是否存在第三轮美元周期?”，可以采用计量方法对美元指数进行延长：一是，模拟回溯70年代之前美元指数，美元指数或在1967-1968年左右存在一个顶点;二是，结合摩根士丹利、花旗银行等多个金融机构的预测进行组合，2021-2025年美元指数将进入弱势周期。周颖刚教授认为，可从经济周期和金融周期的研究入手，来获得对美元周期特征的初步认识，即：美元周期更可能属于金融周期的范畴。一是，与经济周期不同的是，金融周期比传统经济周期波幅更大，周期更长，约为8年-30年(Drehmann等，2012)。二是，美元在跨境信贷、国际债务证券、外汇交易等金融活动领域的占比远超过其在实体经济活动中的占比，这也意味着美元周期更具有金融周期的属性。二、 关于美元周期的驱动因素谢亚轩首席认为，市场投资者对于美元周期背后的驱动因素存在明显的争议。传统的分析框架比较关注实体经济层面，美国国内经济层面和比较短期的驱动因素，似乎不足以解释具备金融周期属性的美元周期变化。周颖刚教授认为，驱动美元周期的因素主要包括美国经济地位、美国货币政策、国际事件等。一是，美国经济地位对美元整体上起到支撑作用，美国GDP占全球比重与实际美元指数的相关系数达55.5%。二是，美国货币政策旨在熨平经济周期，但同时，对美元的强弱转换起到重要作用。美联储政策利率走势往往领先于美元指数，其背后原因主要是利差引发资本流入或流出美国。三是，1971年美元与黄金脱钩、1985年《广场协议》、1999年欧元诞生、2020年新冠疫情等国际事件的发生都是美元贬值的重要催化剂。三、 关于美元周期的影响谢亚轩首席指出市场投资者似乎并不重视美元周期对实体经济的影响，认为美元只是汇率，只是实体经济强弱变化的一种“镜像”，甚至是“面纱”。这似乎与学界特别是以国际清算银行、欧央行和英格兰银行特别关切的金融周期及全球金融周期的研究成果背道而驰。周颖刚教授认为，美元周期对全球贸易、股票市场、大宗商品价格、跨境资本流动、人民币汇率等都会产生影响。一是，美元指数与全球商品和服务出口相关系数为-44.6%，意味着弱美元将促进全球贸易和经济弹性，并有助于减少贸易失衡。二是，美元指数与MSCI全球指数(HP滤波)相关系数为-18.6%，意味着弱美元将推动股票市场上涨。三是，美元指数与CRB现货指数的相关系数为-20.3%，意味着弱美元将推涨大宗商品价格。四是，美元指数与全球投资组合证券净流入相关系数为-36.4%，意味着弱美元将促进全球资本跨境流入，推动资产价格上涨甚至出现泡沫。五是，美元指数与人民币兑美元汇率相关系数为82.4%，与CFETS人民币汇率指数相关系数为-37.7%，意味着弱美元可能带动人民币被动升值。四、 关于美元周期与大类资产配置美林时钟曾被戏称变成电风扇，谢亚轩首席提出从业界和投资研究实战的角度看，应充分考虑美元周期和金融周期对大类资产配置框架加以改进。周颖刚教授分享了团队最新成果：基于美林时钟改进的WISE投资时钟。有别于传统美林时钟，WISE时钟主要有两大创新点，一是，合成金融周期指标，二是，将房地产作为新增资产。在经济周期上行和金融周期上行期间，资产配置首选房地产，其次是股票;在金融周期上行和经济周期下行期间，资产配置首选股票，其次是债券;在经济周期下行和金融周期下行期间，资产配置首选现金，其次是债券;在金融周期下行和经济周期上行期间，资产配置首选商品，其次是房产。最后，周教授认为，中国金融业将加速开放，全球资产配置乃大势所趋，在此过程中，应更加关注美元周期及美元周期的变化，以把握对应的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570422292303429","authorId":"3570422292303429","name":"胖虎宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e46136ec0a6bee3b2da277c7ec77409","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570422292303429","idStr":"3570422292303429"},"content":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","text":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]","html":"[Fans of money] [Fans of money] [Fans of money]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385619695,"gmtCreate":1613541053717,"gmtModify":1704881801593,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/385619695","repostId":"1168530249","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168530249","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b66b3e97274759989352a7b9f80611"},"pubTimestamp":1613533827,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168530249?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-17 11:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168530249","media":"中国基金报","summary":"春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武","content":"<div>\n<p>春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股开盘倒计时，八位基金经理最新研判来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-02-17 11:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a10424fe3b1f29e8d28fdc0dc474e86","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168530249","content_text":"春节期间，多家公募基金公司知名基金经理撰文，对牛年股市走向展开讨论，仅供投资者参考。本期共有国君资管李少君、富国基金曹文俊、万家基金黄兴亮、华泰柏瑞吕慧建、安信基金陈振宇、长信基金安呁、大成基金石国武、交银施罗德基金陈俊华等八位资深基金经理投资展望发布。国君资管李少君：点睛2021：辛丑年这两只牛耳2020年应被载入史册。疫情突如其来，全球经济中断，人民生活扰乱，全球金融市场面临巨大的挑战。然而，上证综指上涨13.87%，创业板指上涨64.96%，公募基金发行屡创纪录，权益投资再度成为居民配置的焦点。回顾这一年，估值扩张是推升股票市场上涨的主要原因，背后的原因主要有二，其一，疫情暴发后全球央行的联合宽松，推动了无风险利率快速下行；其二，货币宽松推升了风险偏好的持续回升。此外，经济复苏及其预期也推动了下半年市场的风格切换。新年伊始，万象更新，2021年宏观环境更加复杂，市场的多空与风格的优劣主要取决于两大因素。其一，全球货币政策的退出或边际收紧的速度；其二，我国出口的韧劲持续超预期的程度。就货币政策而言，历史告诉我们，联储政策的退出应是远虑，但国内市场的情况似乎又表明，我们的货币政策已出现边际收紧的迹象，至少此种近忧已经存在。货币货政的松紧，将直接影响估值扩张的前景。就经济复苏角度而言，有观点认为，2020年中国经济的率先复苏，主要源于出口，而出口的亮眼又源于国内保供应，海外保需求的巧合。据此，以医疗、机电等产品为代表，出口增速亮眼。然而，区分清楚这种高增长是疫情冲击下的阶段性应激，还是疫情催化带来的新市场开拓，这两种假设，可推演的出口数据将会有显著差异，亦将直接影响到2021年中国经济复苏的强度与节奏。面对这种复杂的局面，我们应围绕三个方面开展新一年的投资计划。首先，大势顺势，立足战略配置，紧密跟踪，交叉验证，莫盲目判断多空；其次，风格均衡，适当战术倾斜，保护好β，努力获取α。第三，紧跟业绩，去伪存真，避免预期落空，并且适当关注低估值、高分红的绝对收益机会。经历了两年丰收，2021年要特别做好风险控制，降低收益预期。2021年牛熊尚不确定，能够确定的是牛年，恭祝各位牛年大吉！富国基金曹文俊：“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理的最高评价2019年以来，公募权益基金取得了骄人战绩，偏股混合型基金的近两年收益率中位数超过100%，大幅跑赢了指数。（注：近两年上证指数涨幅39.26%。数据来源于Wind，截至2020年末。）公募基金经理受到投资者的关注度也越来越高，在我心目中，“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理的最高评价。“靠谱”二字虽然朴实无华，却饱含沉甸甸的份量，基金经理若能得此评价如获殊荣。“靠谱”的含义是多层次的，包含锐意进取的工作态度、长期优秀的绩效表现、有效的风控与回撤管理等多方面要素。锐意进取是基金经理必备的工作态度。首先，公募基金经理是一种性质特殊的职业，“追求卓越”是基金经理的职业目标，也是“生存之道”。有别于其他大多数职业，公募基金经理只有证明自身“卓越”才能使自己的工作体现出价值。如果管理业绩无法持续跑赢指数，那投资人会选择管理费用更低的指数基金产品进行替代；如果管理业绩无法持续跑赢同业，那所管理产品的份额必将逐步流失，流向其他优秀的同业，对于雇主而言你的价值也越来越低。因此，对于基金经理而言，平庸即意味着职业生涯的生存危机，如何在这场漫长投资马拉松比赛中脱颖而出，锐意进取的工作态度是必备的条件。其次，基金经理是个学习型的职业，面对新科技、新产品、新模式，要报以开放的心态，努力尝试与理解。市场投资环境随着技术进步、监管升级、投资者结构变化而日新月异。每一位基金经理，也在不断审视自身的投资方法论，补齐短板和盲点领域，避免“一招鲜、吃遍天”的路径依赖，力求自身投资方法的有效性与时俱进。最后，在这场投资马拉松比赛中，如何使自己始终保持良好的竞技状态是取得优秀绩效的重要前提条件，“锐意进取”是鞭策自我保持良好状态的驱动力。长期优秀的绩效表现是每个基金经理所追求的目标，也是持有人梦寐以求的愿望。长期优秀的绩效表现只是投资表现的最终结果，背后是靠一套长期有效的方法论以及将其付诸实践的工作流程进行支撑。以我过往16年的投资研究经验来看，任何一套投资方法论体系都很难是尽善尽美的，经历市场牛熊切换，在70-80%时间段能够解释市场的运行规律，这套方法论体系的有效性就已经相当高了。运用这套方法论体系，我认为2021年有几条宏观确定性线索：首先全球经济复苏是确定的。欧美政府在疫情发生后对居民救助比较及时，通过发放救助资金，能够帮助疫情之后的经济较快速度恢复。可见的是，美国经济的家庭部门的资产负债表并没有受到创伤，居民储蓄率不降反升，房地产市场也欣欣向荣。即便美国企业部门的杠杆率略有攀升，但是相比2008年金融危机时还是降低了很多。所以全球经济复苏的方向是确定的，节奏上由于疫苗接种的快慢，可能会早或晚一个季度。第二个确定性是国内消费的持续回升，特别是中低端的消费。疫情受损的最大的领域主要集中在餐饮、旅游、家政服务等社会服务业，除了外卖没受影响外，受损行业的景气度和该些劳动人群的收入是直接相关的。所以，消费领域还是不断地出现刺激性手段，包括政治局会议提到的“需求侧改革”，本质上就是收入分配改革，因为中低端消费人群的边际消费倾向比较高，高端消费人群的边际消费倾向比较低，通过税收调节这种手段，去增加中低端消费人群的收入水平，然后把整体消费带起来。随着经济回暖，收入预期的稳定性和增长持续性将不断改善，有助于提升消费意愿。第三，出口的火爆在海外疫情比较明显恢复之前，大概率将持续。未来两三年，原来在2020年提升的份额里面可能面临退回，但在疫情环境下，新拓展的客户粘性较强，份额丢失率比较低。举例而言，此前我研究的一家做特种管材的企业，其壁垒较高，但在过去海外市场的开拓十分缓慢，虽然它的产品性价比高，但以前海外客户一直不给认证机会；随着2020年新冠疫情造成的超低油价，使得海外油企降成本的诉求格外强烈，因此上述公司获得了0到1的突破机会。若认证进展顺利，公司产品未来有望在国际市场上分得一席。还有一个确定性的主线就是流动性格局，2021年的超额流动性比2020年大概率要少。当然，经历不同市场风格轮换，基金经理需要不断打磨自己的投资方法论体系，就像软件系统一样不断升级，给方法论的短板和盲区打上补丁，避免在方法论有效性不足的市场环境中犯下致命错误。方法论有效性不足如同司机驾驶着仪表盘失灵的汽车，是一件非常危险的事情。基金经理应当清楚地意识到在何种市场环境下方法论可能失效，并将风险敞口控制在较小的范围内。而当方法论行之有效的时候，敢于果断决策，将自身的优势转化为投资端的超额收益。另一个层面，行之有效的方法论之于基金经理，也未必都能形成良好的投资结果，实践过程中基金经理最大的两个瓶颈点在于精力分配和眼界格局。通常而言，基金经理的工作时间较大多数职业来的要长。研究的深入、判断置信度的提高需要案头研究、实地调研、路演交流、专家访谈等等一系列琐碎的研究工作做支持。基金经理的工作就是在有限时间里不断地按照轻重缓急将需要研究的行业和公司进行排序，尽可能地将自己的重仓股和重仓行业的理解水平提升至显著超越同业平均水平的高度，对相关公司和行业的跟踪紧密程度也达到市场一线水平，长此以往才能积累出显著的超额收益。这里，不得不提及研究平台的支持和基金经理自身的能力圈的积累。市场有涨跌起伏，行业有周期跌宕，有心的基金经理通过一轮轮的行业周期轮换观察，对行业的运行规律认识逐步加深，当下一轮行业景气到来时努力做到对机会的把握更敏感，对投资的判断更准确。每年对两三个行业和个股深入研究，四五年后这就是一笔宝贵的财富，即所谓的“研究的复利”。风险控制与回撤管理可能是大家平时讨论较少的一个话题，但未来对于基金经理而言其重要性与日俱增。2020年，理财市场发生了剧变，净值型产品发行力度加大，低风险偏好的理财资金面临着预期收益率不明确的困扰，而权益类基金的赚钱效应使得部分低风险偏好的理财资金转向了权益类产品。从一个长周期的维度来看，权益类基金的年复合超过了15%，可谓相当可观，然而大多数持有人的投资感观与之相去甚远。究其原因，主要是由于A股市场此前巨大的波动率以及投资者追涨杀跌的羊群效应共同造成的，最终导致了虽然权益类基金赚了很多钱，但持有人并未真实分享到。回顾过去几年理财投资环境的变化，从“房住不炒”的一再坚持到P2P产品的清理、信托类产品的萎缩，再到银行理财产品净值化、产品收益率日趋下降，“简单”的投资产品越来越难找到，权益类基金日益成为广大投资者投资理财的选择方向。在追求收益回报的同时兼顾组合的稳定度，组合的风险控制和回撤管理将成为基金经理的一个新的重要课题。风险控制和回撤管理意味着行业偏离度和个股集中度需要严格控制，在不分散精力的前提下，有效地将个股风险以组合的方式分散开来，长期业绩超额收益来源于个股和行业阿尔法的选择，而非短时间内个股和行业贝塔的暴露，最终做到在风险可控的前提下追求收益率最大化。“靠谱”的基金经理需要经过时间的历练、需要经过市场的洗礼，“靠谱”的基金经理需要持之以恒、需要乐观积极，“靠谱”是持有人对基金经理至高无上的褒奖。牛年新春来了，预祝各位投资者新春佳节快乐，牛年投资顺利、牛气冲天，能够寻找到心仪的“靠谱”基金经理进行长期投资，分享牛市带来的丰硕成果。万家基金黄兴亮：恪守能力圈，坚持长期成长策略万家灯火时，四海笙歌起。值新春佳节之际，借此机会祝福广大投资者新春快乐，平安幸福！牛年已至，我们同样期待新的一年，公募基金行业能一如既往发挥普惠金融的专业优势，使投资者在亲历市场过程中拥有更多获得感。国内资本市场将步入第四个十年，公募基金作为其中的重要参与者，见证着证券市场的长足发展。近两年，公募明显的赚钱效应助推散户参与市场思维转变，公募基金用收益表现圈粉。透过缩影，近年来A股投资者的结构，已经出现较大变化。无论是从持有量角度或者是交易量维度，机构投资者的占比都出现了较大幅度提升。公募基金的规模增长与北向互联互通机制的助力，同样推动着市场向更加成熟的方向迈进。同时改革也为市场蓬勃成长提供了密集能量。注册制的落地，直接加大了市场供给，帮助新兴产业上市进度提速，这将会是载入资本市场大事记中非常成功的一笔。随着未来注册制的进一步推广及涨跌幅限制的进一步打开，投资者犯错的成本及投机的成本都在无形中被拉高，这就对资产管理人提出了更高要求，对投资标的选择也需要慎之又慎。随着近年较大体量基金产品及管理规模超几百亿上千亿基金经理的涌现，一定程度上也引领市场风格的变化。前期市场常被提及的抱团板块，基本都是机构关注较多并经过市场长期验证的各行业头部公司。包括1月份曾出现过个别交易日少数公司大涨，但整体市场走势下行的现象，这些因素都在验证A股市场分化加剧的判断。抱团现象，可以说是A股不断推进制度改革，生态不断演进的长期必然结果。这背后隐含的是市场参与者在制度更加完善的时代大背景下，权衡风险与收益之后所作出的自然选择。业务模式、成长空间、管理治理等因素看得明晰，业务风险较小的头部公司将持续获得资本市场的青睐。长期来看，我们倾向于认为A股仍然会继续保持这种长期分化趋势，这种趋势与制度改革方向、投资者结构变化都息息相关。机构投资者相对更为专业，会倾向于选择一些基本面较好的企业。在A股的新生态中，主题型或者以博弈和交易为主的机会愈发难以把握。反过来一些好的行业、产业以及活跃发展的企业，其业务的持续性会更加强韧，其实这种情况和海外成熟市场已经非常相像。但我们也需要意识到很多行业头部公司的竞争优势明显，体量、份额很大，这就导致将来实现连续高速增长的挑战也会比较大。回归到投资上，不同的投资者会有不同的选择。我们的长期成长策略与目前的抱团板块有一定的偏离。我们倾向于去选择那些未来增长空间巨大的公司，这通常意味着相应的公司还处在仍需要成长的阶段，可能也还不是行业的头部企业，业务的不确定性可能会相对较高，但未来的潜力也会比较大。我们希望看到一家公司3年、5年、10年以后，能比今天大很多，最好与目前相比能实现翻倍，甚至是数量级的增长，我们希望看到这样的可能性。但前述提及的头部公司中，可能部分企业多年以后仍能保持一定增速，但应该较难发生巨变。去挖掘一些发展阶段还较早，在行业竞争格局上仍处在追赶者位置的企业，对我们来说更具研究价值。当然，这其中的挑战很大，也可能会面临失误的风险，所以洞察力、定力和耐力也是极其重要的因素。立足于当下大的行业发展格局，科技创新的方向上很多环节国内企业仍较薄弱，这里面会有很大的挑战，但也蕴含着很大的机会。市场瞬息变化，经历过市场的牛熊转换，就更能切身体会没有一个通行的、适合每一位投资人的策略。同样，对基金产品而言，每只基金也都有属于其本身的能力圈。在新的一年，万家投研团队也会继续专注于资管能力的沉淀精进，深植于市场环境做好研究与投资。珍视信任的重量，为每一份托付全力以赴！华泰柏瑞吕慧建：中国经济的进化和提升：从城运会、全运会，到奥运会驱动A股走势分化2021年新年伊始，A股市场开盘后连续上涨。但是，接下来的走势却让人“不适”：到2月份的第一个星期（2月5日），4070个上市公司中（已剔除2020年12月1日后上市的），没有下跌的股票仅仅790个，占比19.4%。股票收益率的中位数是-12.3%。如果你是一个偏股混合型基金的基金经理，你的基金净值没有下跌，那么你的排名是倒数15.8%分位。偏股混合型基金收益率的中位数是+6.25%。股票市场走势分化之大、基金配置和市场整体特征偏离之大，由此可见一斑。实际上，这个情况已经延续多年。中国经济的进化和提升：从城运会、全运会，到奥运会。股票市场的走势是经济基本面的折射。A股市场走势分化，是中国经济增长结构性分化的反映。总体而言，中国经济在2010年开始持续放缓，2016年GDP增速破7，19年为6.0%，2020年全球一枝独秀，2.3%。但行业增速分化，微观层面的差异更为剧烈。以茅指数为例，成份股公司在2017年～2019年主营收入平均增速分别为41%、37%、26%，2020年前三季度仍保持在25%的高位。如果把市场竞争比作一场体育竞技的话，2010年以前可以比作是一场城市运动会，众多公司都取得了巨大的成功；从2010年到2017年是一场全国运动会，优势企业越做越大，成为行业龙头。随着经济增速放缓，市场竞争加剧，中美贸易摩擦和新冠疫情进一步加速了不同公司之间的分化，小公司加速退出市场，一些中国龙头公司继续增长，进一步稳固了全球行业龙头地位，摘下“奥运”桂冠。投资逻辑变迁：产业逻辑、终局思维2017年是A股市场的一个分水岭。在2017年以前，A股市场普遍存在小盘股溢价。2017年A股市场龙头企业第一次比较普遍地获得了估值溢价。所以可以看到，2017年以来，A股市场不同行业之间的估值出现分化。2020年以来，优势企业的估值溢价进一步扩大。2020年，市场竞争的终局已经更加明朗。优势企业进一步加大海外市场投入，竞争力提升，在全球产业链中的地位继续提升。而对于二、三线公司，越来越多的公司开始掉队，退出市场的速度将加快。2020年前三季度，A股中有48%的公司主营收入出现负增长，55%的上市公司收入增速低于GDP名义增速（3.59%）。A股市场的投资逻辑也随之发生变化。过去，机构投资者非常重视未来1～3年盈利增速变化，以当年或未来一年的盈利增速给公司做估值定位。现在，投资更加注重公司的发展前景，把资金集中到“未来的赢家”上。一些优秀公司，竞争力突出，行业地位稳定，市场以长期产业空间给公司估值。2021年经济复苏：我们应该预期什么？2020年中国经济四个季度GDP增速分别为-6.8%、3.2%、4.9%、6.5%。其中四季度的增速已经超过19年的年度增速，接近中国经济的潜在增长率，进一步上行潜力有限。2021年海外经济将进一步复苏。但是，对拉动中国出口的动力有限。以美国为例， 2020年实物消费并没有因为疫情而下降，其中四季度消费品消费支出增速为6%，为近年的一个高点。所以，美国经济复苏将更多地表现为制造业重启，和服务业复苏，对中国经济拉动有限。所以，2021年中国经济复苏或将主要体现在服务业复苏。中国制造业已经在2020年恢复正常水平，但是服务业仍未完成修复。比如，中国星级酒店收入在2020年三季度仍为负数，-24.52%；餐饮业在四季度才恢复到基本持平水平。预计这些行业2021年将持续向好。2021年中国经济结构性增长的动力仍然值得期待。1、 技术进步、商业模式创新驱动增长。创新是体现中国经济活力的一个重要特征，推动中国经济结构重构、提升，开辟出新的成长路径。预计未来会有更多海外上市公司回归A股，为投资提供更多潜在标的。2、 高端制造业龙头的加冕之路：改写全球产业格局。在国内庞大需求支持下，中国工程师红利将继续兑现。在高端制造业，中国制造成本优势无以伦比，技术进步加快，在众多领域的头部公司中将出现一大批中国公司的身影。3、 消费持续增长。中国成为全球中产人数规模最多的市场。消费持续升级，优秀公司继续扩大规模，保持业绩持续增长。展望2021年，中国经济将保持稳定增长。经济政策 “不急转弯”，但是政策重心必然逐步从 “不急”转向“转弯”，从而抑制A股估值扩张。所以，经历了过去两年的较高收益后，我们应该对2021年A股市场的投资收益率持理性预期。进入新年，辞旧迎新，我们继续看好在代表中国经济发展方向的行业、竞争优势扩大、保持持续增长的公司。最后，祝各位投资人牛年大吉，财运滚滚，心情愉快，投资顺利！安信基金副总经理陈振宇：2021年权益市场“上有顶，下有底”资本市场在金融系统中有牵一发而动全身的作用，这是2018年12月份中央经济会议提出的论点，当时我们判断未来十年甚至二十年，权益市场的地位将不可同日而语。在当前宏观背景下，要改变间接融资为主的市场环境，唯有通过大力发展资本市场，才能够真正推动科技创新与资本市场的良性互动。而对于2021年的权益市场，我们的整体观点是“上有顶，下有底”。“下有底”是因为经济复苏态势越来越明显，同时货币政策也明确“不急转弯”，要保持一定的一致性和稳定性，所以我们认为整体上有机会。“上有顶”是因为不急转弯不代表不转弯，经济的复苏还不足以支撑市场造就超级大牛市，当经济正常化以后，在全球疫苗普及下，较高的宏观杠杆率（去年三季度宏观杠杆率达到270.1%）以及去年超发累积的货币必然会有回收的动作，只不过可能是逐步分布在全年，下半年可能更明显一些。总体而言，今年市场还是有一些结构性机会，有一部分高估，但仍然可以找到不少投资标的。具体来看，A股潜在收益率和国债收益率相当（上证综指剔除负值后的PE中位数的倒数为3.5%，十年期国债收益率3.21%），权益市场整体处于略好于债券的相对中性的位置。从跨市场范围比较，港股恒生指数、A股的上证指数、沪深300、中证500性价比较高，但创业板偏贵；从A股历史估值分位数的角度来看，不同指数的估值分位数分化较大，以PB的估值分位数为例，创业板指最高达94.5%，最低的中证500为17.9%，上证综指为43.2%。A股固然有高估的投资标的，但是估值分位数偏低的投资标的也不少。从国际范围来看，欧美疫情的控制和经济复苏在2021年是大概率事件，我们关注美国10年期国债收益率的变化对于长久期高估值公司的影响，因为其反映了外资融资成本的变化趋势，当这一指标快速上行的时候，外资青睐的长久期的资产的估值将承压（分母端无风险利率上行），相应的，这一类在2019-2020年涨幅巨大的公司的股价可能会面临调整的压力。结构上，我们判断2021年内较多时间里，价值风格相对成长风格占优，因为随着中国经济从疫情中复苏和货币政策恢复常态化，全年社融的趋势是被动收紧的，预计社融存量同比增速将从去年最高16%逐级下降到今年底11%左右的水平，总体宏观流动性是收缩的，叠加实体经济对流动性的需求增加，导致滞留在资本市场的流动性是下降的趋势。这种环境下，注重盈利和估值相匹配的价值风格，可能跑赢靠流动性驱动的成长风格。我们预计疫情导致的低基数和企业盈利的恢复将带来一批企业靓丽的盈利增长，今年选股的关键在于盈利增长和估值相匹配，顺周期行业相对可能更有优势。对于今年市场热议的机构抱团现象，我们认为这是一个结果。首先机构投资在A股中的比重的增加是长期政策导向，其次过去两年基金行业跑出了明显的超额收益，促使个人投资者也增加了资产配置中投资基金的比例。而在专业化的价值投资的整体框架下，真正的好公司是稀缺的，使得稀缺的好公司获得更多的机构资金的青睐。但同时应该看到，今年随着经济的复苏，货币政策回到中性化，有一些没那么优秀的公司基本面也将出现较大的改善，机构投资者会通过挖掘新的投资机会，使得风格更趋于均衡。因此，我们预计当前比较极端的分化现象会在今年内趋向于均衡。总体而言,在经历了2019-2020年两年基金整体较好的走势之后，2021年的投资回报预期需要适当放低，今年不会是轻松的一年，市场震荡有可能加大，但仍然能够维持区间震荡，基于企业盈利增长去挖掘新的投资机会尤为重要。安信基金一直高度重视投研体系的搭建，坚持秉承基本面研究驱动的价值投资理念，这使得我们取得了过去5年权益类基金业绩排名11%，以及固收类基金业绩排名19%的成绩（数据来源：银河证券）。未来一年A股市场仍然有价值风格占优的结构性机会，安信基金自下而上的挖掘投资机会的能力有助于把握这样的结构性的机会。我们有信心，也将继续勤勉地努力,为投资者带来中长期的超越市场的稳健收益及良好的投资体验。长信基金副总经理安昀：牛年投资须躬行在我看来，2021年经济大概率是延续复苏态势。中国经济此轮复苏较早，去年年内环比复苏、今年上半年同比复苏很明确。今年下半年欧美的经济复苏可能会接力，从而带动中国经济继续待在复苏通道之中。一方面是即便疫情反复，各国的应对也有了经验，难以再次造成休克式的影响；另一方面是此轮疫情中国的出口抢占了一定的份额，在全球经济复苏中会表现更好。那么今年的收益预期到底如何？我认为还是有可为空间的。对于主动选股者来说，只要排除了市场大幅回调的风险，那么还是可以做结构性行情的。一方面，目前市场最为忌惮的是货币政策的变化，但是货币政策实际上是内生于经济增长和通货膨胀的，随着经济复苏的进展，实体回报率提升，市场利率大概率会往上走。“不急转弯”已经是一个最好的结果，今年是非常特殊的一年，非常需要稳定，因为调控主动造成波动的概率很小。从投资方向来看，底线应该是避免资本产生永久性损失。巴菲特认为永久性损失大致是两种情况，一是用了杠杆，扛不起；二是持有了毁灭价值的公司，成为时间的敌人。投资标的的底线是至少可以用时间来换空间，要避免持有用很长时间也换不回空间的标的。换句话说，就是要持有时间的朋友，规避时间的敌人。这是主要矛盾，买卖点是效率问题，是比较次要的。投资收益的主要来源是持有的优质公司的长期持续增长，次要来源才是低买高卖。低买高卖涉及频繁决策，且机会频率不好估计，不适合作为收益的主要来源。对于优质公司的界定，从数据上看主要是两项指标，一是能尽量长时间保持较高的资本回报率；二是拥有充裕的自由现金流。从定性看主要是四个方面。一是所处行业空间大且需求稳定，产品生命周期长；二是拥有较为深广的壁垒或护城河，且随着时间推移会加强；三是优质的管理层，这一点很难衡量，建议诉诸于股东背景、股权结构、董事会构成、管理层背景、管理层激励、管理层分配资源的能力和结果、费用和成本控制等等偏定量的可衡量的指标；四是财务稳健，拥有充沛的自由现金流，这使得企业能更大概率度过行业困顿期，且有机会扩展份额。以上是我投资看好的方向，也会关注一些新东西，感受时代脉搏。大成基金石国武：不可贪胜，不可不胜一、2020年经济和权益市场回顾在全球宏观经济“低增长、高负债、低利率”的背景下，2020年的黑天鹅新冠疫情对全球社会和经济带来巨大冲击，进一步导致社会的分化、经济效率的下降和宏观杠杆率的提升。各国政府果断采取了史无前例的债务刺激政策，保证了社会和经济的稳定，全球权益市场表现靓眼，明显受益于货币宽松的环境。中国对疫情的良好控制带来经济的迅速恢复，同时得益于持续的科技投入、工程师红利和完整的产业链配套，中国龙头企业的国际竞争力明显提升。在政策当局保持政策定力的背景下，中国宏观经济指标持续向好，尤其是出口份额大幅度上升。以大成基金重点投资的某出口非洲为主的手机企业为例，在短暂的疫情压制后，出口智能机发货量屡创新高，不仅补回疫情损失，在市场规模和份额上都取得历史性的突破。A股市场在总体表现靓眼的背景下，更为突出的特征是估值分化，以中证800为例，中位数回报不足8%，与公募基金的回报差距十分巨大。分化的背后主要在于：赛道为王、强者恒强和专业致胜。随着国内产业环境的变化、公募基金投研体系专业能力的提升和注册制的持续深化，专业投资者将体现出越来越明显的优势。二、2021年的经济和政策展望展望2012年的宏观经济和政策，我们最为关注两个方面：全球货币堰塞湖的效应和治理、中国政策当局制定的十四五规划。虽然经历了2020年史无前例的财政货币化的刺激计划，从目前政策表态看，全球财政和货币刺激计划依然持续加码。全球货币堆积的堰塞湖带来的结构性通胀效应未来会如何发酵是对货币持有者的巨大挑战。周小川在《拓展通货膨胀的概念与度量》的文章中分析了传统通胀度量的缺陷和通胀的体验的问题，对货币贬值的担忧已经带来货币持有者明显的焦虑情绪。2021年是中国十四五规划的开局之年。深化供给侧结构性改革，加快形成“国内大循环为主，国内国际双循环”的发展格局是总的指导思想。十四五规划的重点包括安全发展观、新型城镇化和创新驱动发展等。其中，安全发展观所包含的国防安全、粮食安全、能源安全和产业安全等值得高度重视。三、投资策略的选择2021年权益市场的投资，我们判断通胀的表现形式和政策应对是最为核心的宏观变量，微观上企业盈利增长的确定性和弹性是投资者偏好的方向。除了我们一直关注的社会需求变迁和企业竞争力的消长外，我们会侧重布局以下方向：(1) 受益于海内外经济修复的顺周期行业，如化工、有色、农业等；(2) 处于长周期上升的行业，比如消费、健康、军工、新能源等；(3) 因流动性和经营周期等短期因素被市场抛弃的细分行业龙头。经历过去两年的高回报和宽松货币环境回归正常化，我们对赛道广受追捧、但公司基本面没有支撑的风口公司保持警惕。交银施罗德基金陈俊华：感谢市场给予的机遇 全球比较筛选标的2020年，市场带给我们的最深的体会就是：极致。回想一年前，大家度过了第一个，要戴口罩测体温，才能去超市采买的春节，惴惴不安的情绪在2020年2月3日，开市第一天，得到了极致的体现——经历过那一天的投资人，估计都印象深刻。如果说那天的极致还被预估了部分，那么接下来，疫情的扩散、实体经济的变化、市场的波动，一连串的意想不到不断的发生，超出了我们所有人的预期。可以说，2月3日，只是市场极致波动的一个开始。疫情的影响已经不能用短期波动来评判，由此衍生的是一系列的对实体经济、产业链分布、股市的中期、甚至长期的深远影响。回顾整个2020年，市场一直在围绕“疫情”变化来挖掘投资机会，上半年，防御为主，投资机会主要体现在医药、必选等板块；下半年，伴随疫情得到控制，开始预期经济企稳，消费、科技重新被关注。每一次的演绎，都超出了历史的估值水平上限，换句话说，股票的“估值弹性”超出了大家的预期。过去一年，我们的操作仍沿用了过往：从确定性（确定性的而业绩，确定性的收益空间）角度去筛选股票，取得了一定的投资收益。与此同时，我们也深刻感受到了市场与以往的不同：首先，越来越多的投资人更加关注企业的风险防控能力、对客户的价值创造以及对社会的价值贡献。或者说，投资人更加偏重从中、长期的“综合价值创造”角度，去评判是否给予上市公司溢价，而非简单的事件驱动或业绩驱动来评判。一个直观的结果就是：大家偏好“龙头”。此外，这场疫情，让我们更加直观的感受到所处的实体经济的韧性与优势所在。我们拥有全球最全的生产制造供应链和最大的消费服务市场。上市、交易规则优化后，我们看到越来越多的各行各业的优质企业登录A股和港股资本市场，为投资人提供了多样化的投资领域。参考券商做的统计，全球范围内，统计市值在50亿美金以上的消费、科技、医药类上市公司，能够连续2018\\19年保持15%增速的公司，全球只有209家，而中国就有超过120家。作为投资人，我们有更为广泛的可选范围。这一点来说，我们是幸运的。最后，海外投资人也越来越关注中国。伴随沪深港通的开放、QFII额度的取消，令海外投资人更加便利地参与到A股的投资中来。我们看到截止2020年末，海外投资人持有A股的市值比例已经和国内公募持有市值相当了；这意味着，A股面对的不再是单一市场内的对比评判了，它更多的融入到了全球股票投资配置中。以上这些变化，让我们会更加坚定从全球比较的视野去筛选股票，评判风险收益比，寻找确定性的投资机会。展望2021年，我们仍然是乐观的。首先，全球范围内，对比宏观经济增速和市场估值，A股和港股是最有吸引力的。2021年，尽管可能有波折，但经济复苏是大概率事件。在全球大的经济体中，中国的经济增速仍有望是最好的；估值水平，尽管创业板估值在历史高位，超过当年50xPE，但沪深300和恒生指数的PE估值只有不足20x，这个水平是低于道琼斯、标普、日经和欧洲的主要股市。其次，我们拥有全球应对能力最好的制造业企业和消费服务类企业。在经济复苏的阶段，谁能够率先提供优质、稳定的产品和服务，谁就有望获取超额市场份额。我们将专注寻找这样的优质企业。最后，比较而言，我们认为港股的机会可能会更多。一方面源自2020年多个消费、互联网企业在港股上市；而二次上市的中概股业有望进入港股通范畴之内，这位我们提供了更多的新增标的。另一方面，港股市场经历了2018-19-20年三年的估值压缩，整体的估值水平在全球范围都是偏低的；这为我们提供了较大的安全边界。总结来说，2021年，必将有新的超预期的投资点会出现。我们首先要做的，是国际比较，选取我们特有的（稀缺性），真实需求在扩大（必需性）、商业化运行模式在形成（成长性）、企业竞争力在提升（“信”价比）的企业。感谢这么多的优秀的企业上市，感谢市场给予我们机遇。我们将一如既往，勤勉进取，拓展能力圈，更好地理解产业变迁的步伐，努力分享更多的优秀企业带来的投资收益，为投资人创造价值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369391438,"gmtCreate":1614003122424,"gmtModify":1704886740696,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369391438","repostId":"360417639","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":210148195590168,"gmtCreate":1692328007185,"gmtModify":1692328011832,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/210148195590168","repostId":"2360255396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2360255396","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1692324354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2360255396?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-08-18 10:05","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2360255396","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"Many businesses may be under stress because of the macroeconomic environment, but these four companies still managed to increase their dividend payouts.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The earnings season is almost ending.</p><p>With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.</p><p>It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.</p><p>The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.</p><p>However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.</p><p>We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.</p><h2 id=\"id_2259839761\">Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)</h2><p>Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.</p><p>The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.</p><p>For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.</p><p>The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.</p><p>Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.</p><p>The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.</p><p>The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.</p><p>Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.</p><h2 id=\"id_3100394615\">Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)</h2><p>Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.</p><p>With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.</p><p>Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.</p><p>Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.</p><p>An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.</p><p>Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.</p><p>RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.</p><p>Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.</p><p>Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.</p><h2 id=\"id_3254584318\">Delfi (SGX: P34)</h2><p>Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.</p><p>The group’s flagship chocolate brands <em>SilverQueen</em> and <em>Ceres</em> are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.</p><p>1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.</p><p>Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.</p><p>Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.</p><p>In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.</p><p>Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.</p><p>CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.</p><h2 id=\"id_317460695\">Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)</h2><p>Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.</p><p>The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.</p><p>In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.</p><p>SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.</p><p>Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.</p><p>The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.</p><p>SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.</p><p>Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.</p><p>Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.</p><p>However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.</p></body></html>","source":"thesmartinvestor_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Singapore Companies That Raised Their Dividends\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-18 10:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"U96.SI":"胜科工业","H02.SI":"虎豹企业","P34.SI":"DELFI LIMITED","G13.SI":"云顶新加坡"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/4-singapore-companies-that-raised-their-dividends/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2360255396","content_text":"The earnings season is almost ending.With the bulk of the companies having reported their latest earnings, it is a good time to review them to see how they are coping with high inflation and surging interest rates.It is also an opportune time to determine if companies are decreasing, increasing or maintaining their dividend payments.The tough macroeconomic environment has taken a toll on a wide swath of businesses, causing them to report lower earnings and/or dividends.However, a small crop of stocks has gone against the grain and raised their dividends despite these challenges.We feature four such companies that could pique the interest of an income-seeking investor.Haw Par Corporation Limited (SGX: H02)Haw Par is a conglomerate with four business divisions – healthcare, leisure, property, and investments.The group is the owner of the iconic Tiger Balm brand of topical analgesics that has proven successful in more than 100 countries.For its fiscal 2023’s first half (1H 2023), revenue increased by 16.3% year on year to S$111.1 million.The better top-line result was because of higher customer spending as sports events and marathons resumed as pandemic-related restrictions were dropped.Net profit climbed 34.9% year on year to S$104.1 million.The Tiger Balm owner saw its 1H 2023’s free cash flow increase by 15.8% year on year to S$14.6 million.The group increased its interim dividend from S$0.15 last year to S$0.20 in line with the good results.Management expects its healthcare division to continue to benefit from improved consumer sentiment but warned that a slowing economy and higher interest rates may act as headwinds to dampen spending.Genting Singapore (SGX: G13)Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), an integrated resort (IR) with world-class attractions such as Universal Studios Singapore (USS), a casino, Adventure Cove, and eight luxury hotels.With the strong rebound in tourism numbers, Genting Singapore reported a sparkling set of earnings for 1H 2023.Revenue jumped 63% year on year to S$1.1 billion while gross profit doubled year on year from S$200.1 million to S$403.3 million.Operating and net profit more than tripled year on year to S$350.8 million and S$276.7 million, respectively.An interim dividend of S$0.015 was declared, 50% higher than the S$0.01 paid out last year.Free cash flow surged by 78.3% year on year to S$220.8 million.RWS is going through an upgrade known as “RWS 1.5” which has seen the commencement of renovation work on the Forum in May this year.Genting’s “RWS 2.0” plan is proceeding smoothly with the construction of Minion Land at the USS and the new Singapore Oceanarium progressing well.Other components of the group’s transformation, such as the extension of Equarius Hotel, are slated to commence in 2024 after receiving government approval.Delfi (SGX: P34)Delfi manufactures and distributes snack foods such as chocolates in 17 countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.The group’s flagship chocolate brands SilverQueen and Ceres are household names in Indonesia and it also distributes agency brands in other countries.1H 2023 saw the confectionary producer report a 16.2% year on year rise in revenue to S$286.2 million.Gross margin improved slightly from 29.4% in 1H 2022 to 30% in 1H 2023.Net profit climbed 30.1% year on year to S$25.2 million.In line with the robust earnings, the group is raising its interim dividend from S$0.0218 last year to S$0.0273.Delfi expects a better performance for 2023 as it continues to enlarge its range of strategic core products and drive growth for its premium brands.CEO John Chuang has also reported that the group’s premium product range with higher margins has performed well since its launch.Sembcorp Industries Limited (SGX: U96)Sembcorp Industries Limited, or SCI, is an energy and urban solutions provider.The group has a balanced energy portfolio of 19.4 GW of which 11.9 GW consists of renewable energy such as wind and solar.In addition, the group also has a project portfolio spanning 13,000 hectares across Asia.SCI reported a mixed set of earnings for 1H 2023.Although revenue dipped year on year, net profit surged by 56% year on year to S$608 million.The utility group also generated a healthy positive free cash flow of S$376 million.SCI increased its interim dividend by 25% year on year from S$0.04 to S$0.05.Looking ahead, the blue-chip group expects its Conventional Energy division to see stable earnings.Its Renewables segment should see increased contributions from completed acquisitions.However, the outlook for its Urban business will hinge on whether it obtains regulatory approvals from the respective country authorities along with the property market sentiment in those countries.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205628050198744,"gmtCreate":1691211693594,"gmtModify":1691211696742,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205628050198744","repostId":"205380242104568","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":205380242104568,"gmtCreate":1691151216760,"gmtModify":1691151224982,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"TigerOptions","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20925853481806adc78dcdfe25f2fe89","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572212908677301","idStr":"3572212908677301"},"themes":[],"title":"💰 How to Sell Put Options? A Profitable Strategy for Income","htmlText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","listText":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage.&nbsp;[Sly]&nbsp; 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I&nbsp;delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","text":"Greetings, fellow tigers! Today, I want to shed some light on a powerful strategy that can potentially help you earn money in the financial markets - selling put options. While options trading may seem complex, selling put options can be a lucrative and relatively straightforward approach to generating income. So, let's dive into the basics and understand how you can leverage this strategy to your advantage. [Sly] 📚 Understanding Put Options Before I delve into selling put options, let's grasp the concept of what a put option is. A put option is a financial contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset (such as stocks) at a specified price (strike price) within a predetermined period (expiration date). When you sell a put opt","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee27826201bf60f99cf6be792e7b5203","width":"1179","height":"1083"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dac9a902ccbf8eb717ed3511c3ae171c","width":"1024","height":"1024"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15a36d0295ac51e5a9e46aadd0b8dfe6","width":"1024","height":"1024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205380242104568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192569997398160,"gmtCreate":1688043689678,"gmtModify":1688043920140,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86bf9f8564b10aee437035656391c1e5","width":"1170","height":"3073"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192569997398160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568485236928,"gmtCreate":1688043458689,"gmtModify":1688043544032,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"","listText":"","text":"","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/141bf898cbbfbc2a4f35619634cc46d5","width":"1170","height":"4785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568485236928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568755798136,"gmtCreate":1688043384485,"gmtModify":1688043387669,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568755798136","repostId":"191891691782400","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191891691782400,"gmtCreate":1687876740529,"gmtModify":1687876777509,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102740637684170","idStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"My definition of July: Options Seller Victory Month","htmlText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","listText":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$</a>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/XLF%2020250117%2025.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$</a>Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","text":"Despite yesterday's decline, I still maintain my view that the market is in a mild correction. The reason is that I don't see many big put orders. At present, the whole is still dominated by sell calls, and the sell call market is mainly dominated by sideways. It seems that the bears were scared in the first half of the year, and now they dare not show their faces easily.Look at the news recently some media began to worry about the stability of the US banking system, and then luckily yesterday there was such a big order:sell $XLF 20250117 31.0 PUT$buy $XLF 20250117 25.0 PUT$Wall Street is again taking the pressure off the Fe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09332b22a5a140c7d7f1cf10640abac7","width":"1148","height":"785"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac10ffda4b5df4b419681c89a2d9252a","width":"2376","height":"98"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2770019ffe7e9f5b37b281c9c8b069","width":"2398","height":"96"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191891691782400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192568715002088,"gmtCreate":1688043376917,"gmtModify":1688043382091,"author":{"id":"3570099321960653","authorId":"3570099321960653","name":"MrShawn5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f265a4cfc23fb63702e66f25f26e855a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570099321960653","idStr":"3570099321960653"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192568715002088","repostId":"191878417490176","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":191878417490176,"gmtCreate":1687873499736,"gmtModify":1687922314196,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3501196737273098","idStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"2023 H1 Recap | Goldman & JPM Are Wrong in 2023 Outlooks?","htmlText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","listText":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","text":"As we approach the end of the June, some investors begin to forecast the stock market in the next half. Let’s look back at how we did the analysis at the beginning of the 2023.Most retail investors gained information by reading the report and outlooks released by institutions. Let’s find out if Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are right or wrong in forecasting economy and stock market in 2023. The source are from Goldman and JPMorgan’s official website.Both of them are wrong at predicting the stock market trends in the first half as $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are trading at 4300.They are also wrong in terms of interest rates and inflation. The benchmark rate is now at the range of 5%-5.25% and the market is expecting at least another 25bps.May CPI is 4%, highe","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/62f0430c21ed92dfa4bb76d24d3d0f25","width":"1080","height":"1050"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d01148cadd83619a53740baa91c1c02","width":"1349","height":"826"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83af8ed135d5d183a56f14f3121f15bb","width":"994","height":"657"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191878417490176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}