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2023-03-21

Why I think the FED will continue to raise rates in the next FOMC meeting despite the banking crisis

FED determination The FED has been vocal about its commitment to bringing down inflation and achieving price stability. As a result, it has raised interest rates aggressively, and signs of inflation finally seem to be coming down. What we did not expect is the recent bank failures 2nd and 3rd largest bank failure in US history  The recent 2nd and 3rd largest bank failure in US history has taken many by surprise. The banks were unable to loan out money as quickly as depositors wanted to deposit their funds to take advantage of the current high interest rates in their savings accounts. As a result, the banks decided to purchase treasuries and earn an income to continue operations, but as interest rates continue to rise the price of these securitie
Why I think the FED will continue to raise rates in the next FOMC meeting despite the banking crisis
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2023-03-10

Here's my thoughts on Sea Ltd earnings, amazing execution!

My oh my! Sea Limited (SE) had a remarkable earning beats for Q4 2022, exceeding earnings expectations due to significant cost-cutting measures. The management team made swift and decisive decisions to improve profitability, which ultimately paid off. Let's take a look Drastic cost cutting measures One of the most notable actions taken was the CEO and top management team forgoing their salaries until the company turns profitable. While it may have been a small expense savings it sent a powerful message of the management team's commitment to the company's success. Another significant move was the various rounds of job cuts, reducing Sea Limited's workforce by about 10%. The company is also seeking a replacement tenant for its massive 200,000 sq ft leased space, which will help tri
Here's my thoughts on Sea Ltd earnings, amazing execution!
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2023-02-20

Let's use Warren Buffet's own investment approach to understand why he exited TSMC

First to understand the reasons behind Warren Buffet latest move to exit most of his stake in TSMC, having only started a position in Q3 of 2022, we probably have to approach TSMC accordance to Warren Buffet's investment style. His decision to invest in a company can be broadly based on the few points below -Company is undervalued based on it's intrinsic value -Durable moat -Not swayed by short-term market, willing to invest long term - Focus on management  - Margin of safety Company is undervalued based on it's intrinsic value The go to calculation of intrinsic value is using discounted cash flow model which at present values TSMC around $100-$120 range. Clearly, the company is undervalued based on it's current share price of $90 and even more so when it was estimated that Warren Bu
Let's use Warren Buffet's own investment approach to understand why he exited TSMC
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2023-02-16

"Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" applies to the current stake of the market

My oh my! What a start for the stock market in 2023! I am sure many of you can sense uphoria in the air but it is wise to give ourselves a reality check time to time. Let's take a look and ask ourselves if we are really out of the woods? The emperor has no clothes The price of TLT is generally inversely correlated with changes in interest rates. When interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds falls because investors can purchase new bonds with higher yields. This leads to a decrease in the value of TLT. At such low levels, it is signaling the likelihood of further rates increase.  Next we look at the strength of the dollar, a rising dollar generally puts pressure on the stock market. It indicates that investors are becoming more risk-averse and seeking s
"Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" applies to the current stake of the market
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2023-02-13

Will ChatGPT AI concept end up falling like NFTs and Metaverse?

Not too long ago, we have seen a surge in popularity of three buzzworthy technologies. They are Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), the Metaverse, and most recently, ChatGPT or Conversational Artificial Intelligence. While these technologies may seem vastly different on the surface, they all share some common traits in terms of their rise to prominence but stocks that are tied to NFTs and Metaverse have since see their prices fallen substantially along with their popularity.  Let's briefly look into them and ask ourselves if the recent rise of the popularity of AI stocks will eventually fade as well The rise and fall of NFTs The NFT market exploded in popularity over a relatively short period of time, with many artists, collectors, and investors jumping on t
Will ChatGPT AI concept end up falling like NFTs and Metaverse?
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2023-02-08

With the market rallying hard in 2023, is it really this time is different?

It has been a good start to 2023 for the stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 8.9% and 16.6% respectively. The price movement seems to indicate that we have won the fight against inflation and have a high chance of avoiding a recession. Is it really this time is different? Let's take a look.  10-2 yield curve remains inverted by the most since the 1980s When the 10-2 yield curve inverts, it signals that investors expect the economy to slow down or enter into a recession. Which leads to a decrease in demand for long-term bonds and an increase in demand for short-term bonds, causing yields on long-term bonds to decrease and short term bonds to increase  This is considered a strong indicator of an upcoming recession, as it suggests that investors have become pe
With the market rallying hard in 2023, is it really this time is different?
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2023-02-03

This is the investing book to start with in 2023

Pick up that book!  In the current internet world, we are fed with tons and tons of information everday at a high pace putting unnecessary pressure on the brain to digest all these information Reading a physical book is actually a very relaxing activity, it gives us a new perspective of a subject and the author usually goes much deeper on a single topic. This activity relief pressure on the brain and are more easy going on the eyes  The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel Since this is a investing community I would like to recommend a book about investing, The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel There is a saying "An investor's greatest enemy is not the stock market but his own emotions"  This book
This is the investing book to start with in 2023
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2023-01-29

What are Bollinger Bands and how we can use them as an indicator to buy or sell stocks

Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are quite a popular technical analysis indicator that is use to measure market volatility. The bands consist of a moving average using 20 days and two standard deviation lines plotted away from the moving average. The upper band represents overbought territory, while the lower band represents oversold territory. How to use Bollinger Bands to buy and sell stocks  When the market is volatile, the bands will expand, indicating that prices are moving rapidly. When the market is less volatile, the bands will contract, indicating that prices are moving less rapidly.  One strategy is to buy when the price touches the lower band(purple) and bands starts to contract and sell when it touches the upper band(yellow) and bands starts to contract. Anot
What are Bollinger Bands and how we can use them as an indicator to buy or sell stocks
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2023-01-24

$TSLA earning report is here! More questions than answers this time round

Probably the most edgy earning call for a very long time. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $1.15 and a revenue of $24.24 billion More questions than answers The recent run from $100 to $140 is great news for Tesla shareholders but it will be short lived if many issues that surfaced recently or issues that exist for sometime remain unanswered or is given an unsatisfactory answer. Questions I hope can be given a satisfactory answer in this earning calls would be What is the timeline for cybertruck production, specification and pricing.  We have been teased for many years on the release Tesla Cybertruck only to have it delayed on multiple times. 2023 looks set to be the year we can get our hands on Cybertruck although no specific date is announced yet. With the release
$TSLA earning report is here! More questions than answers this time round
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2023-01-22
Happy year of the rabbit! 🐰🐰May everyone hop into the year with a big bang of abundance wealth! Huat ah! $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 
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2023-01-18

Tesla sacrificing profit to solve demand is a wonderful move

I am not here to deny that tesla cutting the price of its electric car won't impact their margin but if this solves the demand issue and they continue to able to sell every car they produce at full capacity I will take this as a win.  Price cut solves the demand issue overnight In the first week of Tesla price cut in China, sales of Tesla cars according to insurance registration grew from 2k the week before to 12k Shortly after the announcement of price cut in China, Tesla did a similar move in US resulting a drop in 51% of their US inventory First price cut after raising prices multiple times  Let's not forget Tesla has been raising their car prices for years before the recent price cut. The price cut is in line with the easing of supply chain issues and the drop
Tesla sacrificing profit to solve demand is a wonderful move
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2023-01-12

Warren Buffet's famous quote matters now more than ever

“It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” This famous quote by Warren Buffet matters now more than ever with many wonderful company selling at fair price because of the current bear market. Valuation compression of many great companies 2022 is the year of valuation compression of the whole market  At the start of 2022 P/E of S&P 500 - 21.3 At the end of 2022 P/E of S&P 500 - 17.4 We can see a drop of 18% in P/E multiples even though earnings drop by only around 2% Many companies have their P/E multiples fallen much more although they are still able to show earnings growth. Understand your investment time horizon Many people have shortlisted great company they want to purchase but are scared out of
Warren Buffet's famous quote matters now more than ever
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2023-01-11

Has inflation peaked? Micheal Burry thinks so but there's more to it

Who is Micheal Burry Michael Burry the famous investor who correctly predicted and profited from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 by shorting the mortgage bond market, making himself over $100 million and $700 million for his investors. Inflation peaked but it will be backed His recent views suggest that inflation has peaked and we will be getting lower CPI from now, this has to be great news for the stock market as this suggest that FED will likely have to change their stance to boost the economy and stimulate growth especially in a deflationary environment.  Thoughts  Is it that straightforward? If things played out like Micheal Burry predicted, we might see a massive recovery of the stock market into 2021 levels and see a repeat of t
Has inflation peaked? Micheal Burry thinks so but there's more to it
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2023-01-09

Understand what caused the crash, understand what will reverse it. What would I do?

We have to understand that stock market underperformed I. 2022 simply because liquidity dried up, earnings and valuation compressed, investors piling into treasuries and also people are saving up cash in preparation for the likelihood of a recession. What would I do if this is the case? Relook at companies in your portfolio With liquidity drying up, high cost of borrowing and earnings likely to drop if a recession takes place we have to face the fact that many companies that are unable to generate free cash flow, do not have large cash reserves or high cash burn rates won't be able to survive. To avoid bankruptcy and high cost of borrowing, they are likely have to raise new capital by diluting shares of the company creating negative value for existin
Understand what caused the crash, understand what will reverse it. What would I do?
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2023-01-08

FOMC minutes, provide next to nothing what the FED next move will be

We will hoping to find out through the minutes if there is any discussion between members on how much they want to raise rates in February meeting, but the minutes provide none of that.  FED officials will remain hawkish "Participants noted that, because monetary policy worked importantly through financial markets, an unwarranted easing in financial conditions, especially if driven by a misperception by the public of the Committee's reaction function, would complicate the Committee's effort to restore price stability" Above statement indicates the hawkish tone FED members will give during public speaking or interviews in the near term future. Will keep tightening until significant progress, rate cuts in 2023 is out of question  The FED stressed that they will keep tightening
FOMC minutes, provide next to nothing what the FED next move will be
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2023-01-07

The chicken rice war has begun, Tesla vs BYD

Tesla just slashed the selling price of their cars sold in China in a move to stir up demand at the expense of some margin. Tesla bringing the price down of their model 3 to 229,900 yuan is a direct challenge to BYD most expensive and profitable model which is the seal model pricing now at 225,000 yuan China demand issues Tesla has always priced their cars in the luxury segment range because of their high demand giving them a high margin on each vehicle sales  However the latest figure showing tesla delivered 55,796 vehicles in December is a 44% decline in deliveries month over month clearing showing demand has fallen significantly which likely to have prompted Tesla cutting the selling price yesterday to spur up demand  Direct challenge to BYD Before Tesla reduced the
The chicken rice war has begun, Tesla vs BYD
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2023-01-03

Tesla missed Q4 delivery numbers, is it doom and gloom?

Tesla missed its Q4 delivery numbers, total delivery was 405,278 below median consensus of 417,957. Missed Delivery Guidance Significantly In previous Q3 earning calls, tesla guided that they will grow slightly under 50% YoY expecting 1.5 million vehicles to be delivered in 2022. After the latest delivery numbers, tesla grew 40% YoY with 1.31 million vehicles delivered. What is concerning is tesla missing the guidance significantly and hoping more information would be revealed during Q4 earning calls on why was there such a big miss. Tesla Demand in China Troy Teslike reported that there are 25,500 unsold model 3/Y in China might be a red flag on slowing demand.  With China government subsidy just ended, Tesla is forced to give a price cut to cover the loss in subsidy and I wouldnt ru
Tesla missed Q4 delivery numbers, is it doom and gloom?
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2022-12-29

$TSLA shareholders, watch out for these two dates 2/1/23 & 25/1/23

With all the hammering the stock has been taking recently, Tesla need a catalyst in the form of good news for us to see a stock price reversal. Q4 delivery numbers on 2/1/23 Tesla is expected to release Q4 delivery numbers on the 2nd of Jan. Analysts expectation is 425,000.  I am optimistic that tesla will be able to meet expectations given that the recent discount to their model 3 and model Y largely a success in clearing their inventories with electrek reporting there is only a single model 3 is available in Bay Area. electrek.co Q4 earnings on 25/1/23 Tesla is expected to report Q4 earnings on 25th of Jan, according to Zacks Investment Research, based on 8 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.07. A beat with strong guidance is what tesla shareholder
$TSLA shareholders, watch out for these two dates 2/1/23 & 25/1/23
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2022-12-29

EV companies with high burn rate might not survive while the FED continues to shrink its balance sheet

What Is Burn Rate?  The burn rate is used to describe the rate at which a new company is spending its venture capital to pay for their business overhead before generating positive cash flow from operations or in short it measures the negative cash flow of the company. We can usually see this from a company's quarter earnings report.  EV companies with high burn rate  For new EV makers, they have notoriously high burn rate and losing hundreds of thousands of dollars for each EV they make  $LCID, Lucid, makers of luxury EV has so far burned $2.36 billion in first 3 quarters of 2022 and has $3.3billion in cash remaining as of Sept 30 2022 $RIVN, Rivan another EV maker fare no better having burned $4.3 billion in the first 3 quarters of 2022 although they have much more cas
EV companies with high burn rate might not survive while the FED continues to shrink its balance sheet
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2022-12-26

$TSLA RSI is below 20? Only happened twice before. How we can use RSI as an indicator to trade

RSI or relative strength index measures the speed and change of price movements in the underlying stock, we can use this to evaluate if the stock is overbought or oversold and aid us in our trading strategies The values of RSI and what they mean The RSI move between 0 and 100. Typically the RSI indicates that a stock is considered to be overbought when it is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30 This number is open to adjustment depending on each characteristic of each individual stock, if the RSI of a stock is repeatedly over 70 over let's say a week, we might want to adjust this to 80 as a resistance level In a bull market, the RSI tends to remain in the 40 to 90 range however during a bear market the RSI will usually stays between the 10 to 60 range.  If the underlying stock pr
$TSLA RSI is below 20? Only happened twice before. How we can use RSI as an indicator to trade

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