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2022-03-30

great read on oil

Long-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I

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read on oil","listText":"great read on oil","text":"great read on oil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019595376","repostId":"2223469821","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2223469821","pubTimestamp":1648569840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223469821?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 00:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Long-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223469821","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1152px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>primeimages/E+ via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong><em>Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative to consumption and supply is struggling. The war in the Ukraine has worsened the<span> near-term supply outlook further. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. This would put even more upward pressure on current prices and overall inflation. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets finally begin to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we currently witness in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. In this two part report, we look first at how we got to the current price environment and in the upcoming second part we do a deep dive into the long-term outlook for crude oil markets.</span></em></strong></p> <p>Oil prices have reached the highest levels since the all-time highs in 2008. The most obvious explanation for the sharp rally is the military conflict in Ukraine and the threat of a loss of Russian oil supplies. However, oil prices are only up $20 since the war started a month ago. In fact, Brent crude oil prices have been rising relentlessly ever since the lows of around $20/bbl we saw during first lockdowns in spring 2020, to $95/bbl just before the invasion (see Exhibit 1).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 1: Oil prices rallied close to $80/bbl from their lows before the Ukraine invasion started</strong></p> <p>$/bbl</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil1_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While everybody points to the Ukrainian conflict to explain high prices, just a month ago there was a vigorous debate among analysts, media, and politicians about what was behind the fact that oil had broken out of the $60-80 range it has mostly been trading in for the past years (except the quick lockdown crash in early 2020) and started to rally relentlessly. Was it exceptional demand, reflective of a strong economy coming out of the pandemic as some claimed? Or rather supply bottlenecks, similar to the supply issues that plagued many other industries at the moment. Was it OPEC? Or just broad based inflation filtering into oil, given that almost any other commodity has shown similar or even higher price increases over the past two years.</p> <p>First, it wasn’t (and still isn’t) exceptionally strong demand. While global oil demand has significantly recovered from the lows in spring 2020, for 2022 it is still slightly below where it was before the pandemic (see Exhibit 2).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 2: Global oil demand has strongly recovered but remains below pre-pandemic levels so far</strong></p> <p>Mb/d, 12 month moving average, change vs 2019</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil2_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This means it is lagging overall economic activity, which, according to the World Bank and the IMF, is roughly 7% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019 (see Exhibit 3). A rule of thumb is that global oil demand grows roughly at the rate of GDP -2% efficiency gain per annum. In this case, a 7% GDP growth over two years plus 2% compounded efficiency gains would suggest that oil demand – if it wasn’t for the remnants of the pandemic – should be roughly 1 million b/d above 2019 levels.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 3: cumulative changes to real GDP vs 2019</strong>%</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil3_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>IMF</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The reason why oil demand is lagging is mostly due to the lack of jet fuel demand. Jet fuel accounts for about 10% of global oil demand and air traffic is still quite a bit lower than it was before the pandemic. Globally commercial air traffic is still down 20% vs. pre-pandemic levels according to Flightradar24, a site tracking commercial air traffic (see Exhibit 4).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 4: Commercial flight activity is still 20% below pre-pandemic levels</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil4_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Flightradar24</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>During the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil demand crashed like it never had before. At its lowest point, oil demand was down 20%. As a comparison, during the great recession of 2008-2009, oil demand was down just about 3.5% at any point in time (see Exhibit 5).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 5: The demand destruction from the lockdowns dwarfed the demand destruction from the recession that followed the 2008-2009 credit crisis</strong></p> <p>Kb/d year-over-year</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil5_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This demand destruction in early 2020 led to a massive build in global inventories. Global total petroleum stocks rose at the fastest rate and reached their highest levels in history as producers didn’t curb production fast enough (see Exhibit 6).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 6: Total commercial petroleum’s stocks, including floating storage, reached their highest levels in history in 2020</strong></p> <p>Kb</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil6_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Which is where OPEC+ comes in. After taking a very different direction during the February meeting (Saudi Arabia, upset about Russia’s refusal to agree to production cuts, ramped up production to all-time highs and flooded the market with crude, promptly crashing prices), OPEC+ swiftly decided to act when it became clear what the global lockdowns did to demand. The group cut oil production by around 10 million b/d (see Exhibit 7). And surprisingly, all group members stuck to their quotas since that decision was made.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 7: OPEC swiftly cut production by a record amount when the effects of the lockdowns on demand became clear</strong></p> <p>Kb/d (OPEC crude oil only, auxiliary states in OPEC+ not included)</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil7_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Subsequently, the group provided a roadmap for the return of these barrels. For the first couple months of this oil production recovery, OPEC+ was careful that the oil market remained in deficit. As a result, oil inventories kept falling until they reached their 5-year average in mid-summer 2021 (se Exhibit 8).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 8: Global petroleum stocks were back to 5-year averages by mid-summer 2021</strong></p> <p>Kb, levels vs 5-year average</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil8_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, actual OPEC+ production is lagging the quotas for many months now, and the gap between actual and target becomes increasingly wider. The reason is that some of the smaller OPEC members struggle to produce as much as they would be allowed under the plan (see exhibit 9). These are not voluntary cuts. It has become obvious that the capacity of many OPEC members simply isn’t there as these countries are plagued with domestic issues that prevent full production. On top of that, the non-OPEC members of OPEC+ are also producing about 200kb/d below their quotas, and that was before the war in Ukraine reduced Russian exports.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 9: Many OPEC members keep producing below their quotas</strong></p> <p>Kb/d</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil9_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>OPEC</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Interestingly, the core OPEC members Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are for once not stepping in to fill the gap. In our view, this may be partially politically driven due to some tensions between the US and some OPEC members, but more likely it is also due to their own capacity constraints. In April 2020, Saudi Arabia briefly ramped up production to 12mb/d as the Kingdom reacted to Russia’s refusal to commit to a production cut (see Exhibit 10). This strategy backfired as it meant raising output right into the largest demand crash in history. However, it does give some insights to what Saudi's production capacity is. We think Saudi Arabia went beyond their sustainable production capacity at that time. It is unlikely that they could sustain this output level for an extended period. Their production capacity for the medium term is likely closer to 11-11.5mb/d. Any capacity increase would require substantial investments in our view, and it would take years to achieve.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 10: Saudi Arabia demonstrated that they can push production to 12mb/d over a very brief period, but sustainable production capacity is likely significantly lower</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil10_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research, OPEC</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Saudi Arabia is still producing below their sustainable capacity, the country can’t really step in and fill the production gaps left by the less stable OPEC producers, as it would mean it could not increase production anymore when it is supposed to according to the OPEC+ roadmap. The country has no choice but to stick to their own predetermined production path. The same is true for other core-OPEC members. As a result, demand continued to exceed production in 1Q22 at a time when in theory, we should have already shifted to an oversupply in the first two months of the year.</p> <p>This has pushed global inventories lower and lower. As we have explained in earlier reports, there is a very strong relationship between the level of inventories and crude oil time-spreads, the difference between the prompt prices and longer-dated prices on the forward curve (see Exhibit 11). In a nutshell, when inventories are low, consumers of a commodity – in this case petroleum products – are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery. It is preferable to pay this premium than to face the risk of having to shut down the business because they run out of oil (jet fuel, diesel etc.). In such a situation, prompt prices trade over future prices which is called “backwardation”. When inventories are high, consumers have no preference for immediate delivery. Instead, storage, insurance, and financing costs mean that consumers rather not sit on inventories, but would prefer delivery in the future. In that situation, prompt prices will trade below forward prices and the curve is in “contango”.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 11: Crude oil time-spreads are inversely correlated to inventories</strong></p> <p>% time-spread 1-60 months, prediction based on inventory levels</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil11_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The extent to which a forward curve is in backwardation or contango is strongly correlated to the level scarcity or abundance of inventories relative to demand. At the moment, we see an extreme level of backwardation in the front of the curve. The market signals extreme scarcity of oil stocks and the risk of further supply shortages. This is the result of the persisting undersupply discussed above that led to a situation of very low inventories, but also due to concerns over potentially even larger shortages due to missing Russian crude oil supplies.</p> <p>To what extent the Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this issue from a fundamental perspective is difficult to assess at the moment. So far the US is the only nation that has outright banned imports of Russian oil and products. While this might create challenges for some refiners that rely on specific grades of imported Russian crude, it doesn’t alter the global supply and demand picture. US refiners will be forced to switch to an alternative grade but the Russian crude that used to go to the US (only about 670kb/d in 2021, of which 200kb/d was crude and the rest products, mostly fuel oil and VGO that was used in the US refinery system) will find its way to Asia (see Exhibit 12).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 12: US import volumes of Russian petroleum are relatively small</strong></p> <p>Kb/d</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil12_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research, EIA</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The EU has imposed some sanctions on Russia that impact the commodity sector overall, but it has so far refrained from banning energy imports. However, over the past weeks it has become apparent that the voluntary sanctioning by Western companies – sometimes as a result of public outcries – is having an impact on Russia's ability to export crude to the West regardless. There have been several reports that international commodity trading giants were forced to offer Urals (a Russian crude oil grade) at discounts of up to $30/bbl as they could not find a willing buyer. Russian crude exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe. These flows can’t be entirely substituted by seaborne exports at the moment. Hence the reluctance of Western oil firms, merchants, banks, shippers, seaports, and insurance companies to refrain to deal with Russian entities or outright stop dealing with anything that could be related to Russia can still lead to substantial reduction of Russian exports even as there is no legal ban. At the moment this probably affects around 1mb/d of Russian crude supplies. On top of that, Russia just announced that the CPC pipeline – a Kazakh-Russian Caspian Pipeline Consortium – is undergoing unplanned maintenance of up to two months, reducing global supplies by a further 0.5mb/d.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 13: Russian oil and gas exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil13.jpg\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Source: National Geographic</em></p> <p>On the flip side, IEA member states agreed to release 60mb of petroleum from their strategic reserves to alleviate the current shortages. Most of it will come from the US, and 29 other countries have committed to smaller volumes. However, that covers the current losses from Russia by just <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to two months. The US had already orchestrated a coordinated SPR release last November to deal with high prices prior to the Ukraine war. The reaction was a short sell-off and an immediate recovery with prices pushing much higher.</p> <p>There is no easy way to predict how this picture changes over the coming months.</p> <ul> <li>It’s certainly key how the Ukrainian conflict progresses. On one hand, Europe is unlikely to ban oil and gas imports unless the conflict escalates in a dramatic way. On the other hand, while European sanctions are unlikely to be eased in the short term even if Ukraine and Russia come to some sort of agreement, such a scenario would likely ease the pressure on Western firms to maintain their voluntary sanctions.</li> <li>Core-OPEC members do have spare capacity, and they will bring it back as planned and not faster. But they run out of spare capacity in 2H2022.</li> <li>US production is also growing again, but not unlike OPEC, the shale oil producers made clear that they are also sticking to their production targets and are undeterred by higher prices, Non-OPEC (non-shale) production is growing as well, but it is recovering from the declines over the past 2 years rather than incrementally growing. This means it’s a one off and most of the increases have already happened.</li> <li>Finally, there is a significant chance that the Iranian nuclear deal will be reactivated, allowing for about 1 million b/d of crude production to come back online relatively quickly.</li> <li>This uncertain supply picture is facing a rapid improvement in global demand on the back of what seems to be the rapid abandonment of Covid19 mandates worldwide, which would allow air travel to rebound strongly over the coming months.</li> </ul> <p>We think the near-term risks are skewed to the upside as demand keeps exceeding supply despite the OPEC ramp up, and Russia supply issues only exacerbate this situation. This would lead to even stronger backwardation until prices start to impact demand enough to balance the market. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen.</p> <p>So it appears that the strong crude oil prices are mainly the result of a very backwardated curve because supply is struggling over the short term. While this adds to the overall inflation pressure coming from generally higher commodity prices, breakeven inflation expectations suggest that the market is expecting these pressures to remain only over the near term. In other words, the market thinks the supply issues will be transitory. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets have finally begun to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we are currently witnessing in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. We will do a deep dive into the strong move at the back end of the oil curve in an upcoming report.</p> <p><em>Original Post</em></p> <p><strong>Editor's Note:</strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Long-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLong-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 00:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2223469821","content_text":"primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative to consumption and supply is struggling. The war in the Ukraine has worsened the near-term supply outlook further. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. This would put even more upward pressure on current prices and overall inflation. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets finally begin to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we currently witness in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. In this two part report, we look first at how we got to the current price environment and in the upcoming second part we do a deep dive into the long-term outlook for crude oil markets. Oil prices have reached the highest levels since the all-time highs in 2008. The most obvious explanation for the sharp rally is the military conflict in Ukraine and the threat of a loss of Russian oil supplies. However, oil prices are only up $20 since the war started a month ago. In fact, Brent crude oil prices have been rising relentlessly ever since the lows of around $20/bbl we saw during first lockdowns in spring 2020, to $95/bbl just before the invasion (see Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Oil prices rallied close to $80/bbl from their lows before the Ukraine invasion started $/bbl   Goldmoney Research While everybody points to the Ukrainian conflict to explain high prices, just a month ago there was a vigorous debate among analysts, media, and politicians about what was behind the fact that oil had broken out of the $60-80 range it has mostly been trading in for the past years (except the quick lockdown crash in early 2020) and started to rally relentlessly. Was it exceptional demand, reflective of a strong economy coming out of the pandemic as some claimed? Or rather supply bottlenecks, similar to the supply issues that plagued many other industries at the moment. Was it OPEC? Or just broad based inflation filtering into oil, given that almost any other commodity has shown similar or even higher price increases over the past two years. First, it wasn’t (and still isn’t) exceptionally strong demand. While global oil demand has significantly recovered from the lows in spring 2020, for 2022 it is still slightly below where it was before the pandemic (see Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: Global oil demand has strongly recovered but remains below pre-pandemic levels so far Mb/d, 12 month moving average, change vs 2019   Goldmoney Research This means it is lagging overall economic activity, which, according to the World Bank and the IMF, is roughly 7% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019 (see Exhibit 3). A rule of thumb is that global oil demand grows roughly at the rate of GDP -2% efficiency gain per annum. In this case, a 7% GDP growth over two years plus 2% compounded efficiency gains would suggest that oil demand – if it wasn’t for the remnants of the pandemic – should be roughly 1 million b/d above 2019 levels. Exhibit 3: cumulative changes to real GDP vs 2019%   IMF The reason why oil demand is lagging is mostly due to the lack of jet fuel demand. Jet fuel accounts for about 10% of global oil demand and air traffic is still quite a bit lower than it was before the pandemic. Globally commercial air traffic is still down 20% vs. pre-pandemic levels according to Flightradar24, a site tracking commercial air traffic (see Exhibit 4). Exhibit 4: Commercial flight activity is still 20% below pre-pandemic levels   Flightradar24 During the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil demand crashed like it never had before. At its lowest point, oil demand was down 20%. As a comparison, during the great recession of 2008-2009, oil demand was down just about 3.5% at any point in time (see Exhibit 5). Exhibit 5: The demand destruction from the lockdowns dwarfed the demand destruction from the recession that followed the 2008-2009 credit crisis Kb/d year-over-year   Goldmoney research This demand destruction in early 2020 led to a massive build in global inventories. Global total petroleum stocks rose at the fastest rate and reached their highest levels in history as producers didn’t curb production fast enough (see Exhibit 6). Exhibit 6: Total commercial petroleum’s stocks, including floating storage, reached their highest levels in history in 2020 Kb   Goldmoney research Which is where OPEC+ comes in. After taking a very different direction during the February meeting (Saudi Arabia, upset about Russia’s refusal to agree to production cuts, ramped up production to all-time highs and flooded the market with crude, promptly crashing prices), OPEC+ swiftly decided to act when it became clear what the global lockdowns did to demand. The group cut oil production by around 10 million b/d (see Exhibit 7). And surprisingly, all group members stuck to their quotas since that decision was made. Exhibit 7: OPEC swiftly cut production by a record amount when the effects of the lockdowns on demand became clear Kb/d (OPEC crude oil only, auxiliary states in OPEC+ not included)   Goldmoney research Subsequently, the group provided a roadmap for the return of these barrels. For the first couple months of this oil production recovery, OPEC+ was careful that the oil market remained in deficit. As a result, oil inventories kept falling until they reached their 5-year average in mid-summer 2021 (se Exhibit 8). Exhibit 8: Global petroleum stocks were back to 5-year averages by mid-summer 2021 Kb, levels vs 5-year average   Goldmoney research However, actual OPEC+ production is lagging the quotas for many months now, and the gap between actual and target becomes increasingly wider. The reason is that some of the smaller OPEC members struggle to produce as much as they would be allowed under the plan (see exhibit 9). These are not voluntary cuts. It has become obvious that the capacity of many OPEC members simply isn’t there as these countries are plagued with domestic issues that prevent full production. On top of that, the non-OPEC members of OPEC+ are also producing about 200kb/d below their quotas, and that was before the war in Ukraine reduced Russian exports. Exhibit 9: Many OPEC members keep producing below their quotas Kb/d   OPEC Interestingly, the core OPEC members Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are for once not stepping in to fill the gap. In our view, this may be partially politically driven due to some tensions between the US and some OPEC members, but more likely it is also due to their own capacity constraints. In April 2020, Saudi Arabia briefly ramped up production to 12mb/d as the Kingdom reacted to Russia’s refusal to commit to a production cut (see Exhibit 10). This strategy backfired as it meant raising output right into the largest demand crash in history. However, it does give some insights to what Saudi's production capacity is. We think Saudi Arabia went beyond their sustainable production capacity at that time. It is unlikely that they could sustain this output level for an extended period. Their production capacity for the medium term is likely closer to 11-11.5mb/d. Any capacity increase would require substantial investments in our view, and it would take years to achieve. Exhibit 10: Saudi Arabia demonstrated that they can push production to 12mb/d over a very brief period, but sustainable production capacity is likely significantly lower   Goldmoney Research, OPEC While Saudi Arabia is still producing below their sustainable capacity, the country can’t really step in and fill the production gaps left by the less stable OPEC producers, as it would mean it could not increase production anymore when it is supposed to according to the OPEC+ roadmap. The country has no choice but to stick to their own predetermined production path. The same is true for other core-OPEC members. As a result, demand continued to exceed production in 1Q22 at a time when in theory, we should have already shifted to an oversupply in the first two months of the year. This has pushed global inventories lower and lower. As we have explained in earlier reports, there is a very strong relationship between the level of inventories and crude oil time-spreads, the difference between the prompt prices and longer-dated prices on the forward curve (see Exhibit 11). In a nutshell, when inventories are low, consumers of a commodity – in this case petroleum products – are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery. It is preferable to pay this premium than to face the risk of having to shut down the business because they run out of oil (jet fuel, diesel etc.). In such a situation, prompt prices trade over future prices which is called “backwardation”. When inventories are high, consumers have no preference for immediate delivery. Instead, storage, insurance, and financing costs mean that consumers rather not sit on inventories, but would prefer delivery in the future. In that situation, prompt prices will trade below forward prices and the curve is in “contango”. Exhibit 11: Crude oil time-spreads are inversely correlated to inventories % time-spread 1-60 months, prediction based on inventory levels   Goldmoney Research The extent to which a forward curve is in backwardation or contango is strongly correlated to the level scarcity or abundance of inventories relative to demand. At the moment, we see an extreme level of backwardation in the front of the curve. The market signals extreme scarcity of oil stocks and the risk of further supply shortages. This is the result of the persisting undersupply discussed above that led to a situation of very low inventories, but also due to concerns over potentially even larger shortages due to missing Russian crude oil supplies. To what extent the Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this issue from a fundamental perspective is difficult to assess at the moment. So far the US is the only nation that has outright banned imports of Russian oil and products. While this might create challenges for some refiners that rely on specific grades of imported Russian crude, it doesn’t alter the global supply and demand picture. US refiners will be forced to switch to an alternative grade but the Russian crude that used to go to the US (only about 670kb/d in 2021, of which 200kb/d was crude and the rest products, mostly fuel oil and VGO that was used in the US refinery system) will find its way to Asia (see Exhibit 12). Exhibit 12: US import volumes of Russian petroleum are relatively small Kb/d   Goldmoney Research, EIA The EU has imposed some sanctions on Russia that impact the commodity sector overall, but it has so far refrained from banning energy imports. However, over the past weeks it has become apparent that the voluntary sanctioning by Western companies – sometimes as a result of public outcries – is having an impact on Russia's ability to export crude to the West regardless. There have been several reports that international commodity trading giants were forced to offer Urals (a Russian crude oil grade) at discounts of up to $30/bbl as they could not find a willing buyer. Russian crude exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe. These flows can’t be entirely substituted by seaborne exports at the moment. Hence the reluctance of Western oil firms, merchants, banks, shippers, seaports, and insurance companies to refrain to deal with Russian entities or outright stop dealing with anything that could be related to Russia can still lead to substantial reduction of Russian exports even as there is no legal ban. At the moment this probably affects around 1mb/d of Russian crude supplies. On top of that, Russia just announced that the CPC pipeline – a Kazakh-Russian Caspian Pipeline Consortium – is undergoing unplanned maintenance of up to two months, reducing global supplies by a further 0.5mb/d. Exhibit 13: Russian oil and gas exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe    Source: National Geographic On the flip side, IEA member states agreed to release 60mb of petroleum from their strategic reserves to alleviate the current shortages. Most of it will come from the US, and 29 other countries have committed to smaller volumes. However, that covers the current losses from Russia by just one to two months. The US had already orchestrated a coordinated SPR release last November to deal with high prices prior to the Ukraine war. The reaction was a short sell-off and an immediate recovery with prices pushing much higher. There is no easy way to predict how this picture changes over the coming months.  It’s certainly key how the Ukrainian conflict progresses. On one hand, Europe is unlikely to ban oil and gas imports unless the conflict escalates in a dramatic way. On the other hand, while European sanctions are unlikely to be eased in the short term even if Ukraine and Russia come to some sort of agreement, such a scenario would likely ease the pressure on Western firms to maintain their voluntary sanctions. Core-OPEC members do have spare capacity, and they will bring it back as planned and not faster. But they run out of spare capacity in 2H2022. US production is also growing again, but not unlike OPEC, the shale oil producers made clear that they are also sticking to their production targets and are undeterred by higher prices, Non-OPEC (non-shale) production is growing as well, but it is recovering from the declines over the past 2 years rather than incrementally growing. This means it’s a one off and most of the increases have already happened. Finally, there is a significant chance that the Iranian nuclear deal will be reactivated, allowing for about 1 million b/d of crude production to come back online relatively quickly. This uncertain supply picture is facing a rapid improvement in global demand on the back of what seems to be the rapid abandonment of Covid19 mandates worldwide, which would allow air travel to rebound strongly over the coming months.  We think the near-term risks are skewed to the upside as demand keeps exceeding supply despite the OPEC ramp up, and Russia supply issues only exacerbate this situation. This would lead to even stronger backwardation until prices start to impact demand enough to balance the market. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. So it appears that the strong crude oil prices are mainly the result of a very backwardated curve because supply is struggling over the short term. While this adds to the overall inflation pressure coming from generally higher commodity prices, breakeven inflation expectations suggest that the market is expecting these pressures to remain only over the near term. In other words, the market thinks the supply issues will be transitory. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets have finally begun to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we are currently witnessing in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. We will do a deep dive into the strong move at the back end of the oil curve in an upcoming report. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322256004,"gmtCreate":1615812793108,"gmtModify":1704786884114,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570344398049048","authorIdStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322256004","repostId":"2119912949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119912949","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1615809060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119912949?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 19:51","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Southwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119912949","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. $(LUV)$ rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrie","content":"<p>Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$(LUV)$</a> rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597a9e8789c906460369ccf9b20576e3\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>The company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. </p>\n<p>The company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. </p>\n<p>The company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. </p>\n<p>The stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JETS\">U.S. Global Jets ETF</a> (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 6.7%.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Southwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouthwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-15 19:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$(LUV)$</a> rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597a9e8789c906460369ccf9b20576e3\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>The company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. </p>\n<p>The company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. </p>\n<p>The company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. </p>\n<p>The stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JETS\">U.S. Global Jets ETF</a> (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 6.7%.</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JETS":"U.S. Global Jets ETF","LUV":"西南航空"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119912949","content_text":"Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. $(LUV)$ rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. \n\nThe company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. \nThe company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. \nThe company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. \nThe stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&P 500 has gained 6.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328947777,"gmtCreate":1615483126499,"gmtModify":1704783536381,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570344398049048","authorIdStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oxy and conocophillips","listText":"oxy and conocophillips","text":"oxy and conocophillips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328947777","repostId":"1120482093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120482093","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1615475560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120482093?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"OPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120482093","media":"Reuters","summary":"OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the","content":"<p>OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.</p>\n<p>In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.</p>\n<p>“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.</p>\n<p>“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”</p>\n<p>The latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.</p>\n<p>Oil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.</p>\n<p>OPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.</p>\n<p>“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.</p>\n<p><b>SAUDI DELIVERS CUT</b></p>\n<p>The report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.</p>\n<p>OPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.</p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.</p>\n<p>OPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.</p>\n<p>While those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.</p>\n<p>Partly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.</p>\n<p>In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.</p>\n<p>“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.</p>\n<p>“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”</p>\n<p>The latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.</p>\n<p>Oil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.</p>\n<p>OPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.</p>\n<p>“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.</p>\n<p><b>SAUDI DELIVERS CUT</b></p>\n<p>The report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.</p>\n<p>OPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.</p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.</p>\n<p>OPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.</p>\n<p>While those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.</p>\n<p>Partly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120482093","content_text":"OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.\nIn a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.\n“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.\n“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”\nThe latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.\nOil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.\nOPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.\n“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.\nSAUDI DELIVERS CUT\nThe report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.\nOPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.\nSaudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.\nOPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.\nWhile those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.\nPartly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362797654,"gmtCreate":1614665713178,"gmtModify":1704773748379,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570344398049048","authorIdStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362797654","repostId":"2116561881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116561881","pubTimestamp":1614662073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116561881?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 13:14","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116561881","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition c","content":"<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116561881","content_text":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government has asked the Hong Kong exchange and the city's financial regulator to look into having Spacs list, according to Financial Secretary Paul Chan.\nThe aim is to allow the new fundraising arrangements, while upholding investors protections, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday (March 2). \"We are looking at it seriously,\" he said, without providing a time-line.\nSpacs, or blank-cheque companies, raise money from investors and then look to acquire another business, usually a private one, within two years. Historically just a US product, a growing number of Asia-based funds and financiers have been setting up Spacs with the aim of snapping up a target in the fast-growing region.\nThe listing of Spacs has propelled IPO deals in the US to the fastest pace in 12 years so far this year, with the vehicles comprising 77 per cent of the announced offerings. The city's main Asian competitor, Singapore, is looking at opening up for Spacs. Hong Kong's tycoons, including billionaire Li Ka-shing, are planning to raise such funds in the US.\nAllowing Spacs would further add momentum for the Hong Kong exchange, which last year had the busiest IPO year in a decade, boosted by the listing of a string of high-profile Chinese technology companies.\nThe initial steps into Spacs come after the city shook markets last week by raising the stamp duty on stock trading by 30 per cent to 0.13 per cent as part of an effort to boost spending and relieve economic distress amid a record budget deficit and the highest unemployment in 16 years. Shares sold off broadly on Wednesday as the budget was announced, sending the stock of the city's bourse plunging almost 9 per cent.\nMr Chan hit back at criticism that the move would harm the financial hub.\n\"According to the information available to us up till now, we don't think this modest increase in stamp duty has in anyway harmed our competitiveness,\" he said. The government has no plans to withdraw the hike and isn't at this time planning any more increases, he said.\n\"We will continue to monitor the situation, the market development and at this stage, I will not commit one way or the other,\" Mr Chan said.\nEconomic Momentum\nThe city's economy has struggled under political and social unrest in 2019 and last year's coronavirus outbreak, with tourism and consumption evaporating and unemployment surging. After a record 6.1 per cent contraction last year, the economy will grow in a range of 3.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent in 2021, the city estimates.\nUnveiled on Feb 24, the budget outlined HK$120 billion (S$20.6 billion) of fiscal support to spur consumption and ease joblessness. Key measures include a HK$5,000 consumption voucher for residents and new arrivals, as well as loans to the unemployed.\nMr Chan continues to be optimistic Hong Kong's economy will pick up momentum from the middle of the year and ultimately return to growth. It's particularly important to support the retail and restaurant industries to help accelerate the recovery, he said.\n\"It will be important for us to inject additional resources into the economy\" such as the HK$5,000 electronic vouchers, he said. The scope of the vouchers will be as wide as possible so residents can spend it according to their own circumstances, he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363403281,"gmtCreate":1614160287643,"gmtModify":1704888876847,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570344398049048","authorIdStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363403281","repostId":"1151057580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151057580","pubTimestamp":1614159411,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151057580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151057580","media":"Simply Wall St","summary":"Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder group","content":"<p>Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. I quite like to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger said 'Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.</p>\n<p>NetEase has a market capitalization of US$86b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. We'd expect to see both institutions and retail investors owning a portion of the company. In the chart below, we can see that institutional investors have bought into the company. We can zoom in on the different ownership groups, to learn more about NetEase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a0c2924ed2348105efa7c4c8a3f012\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>NasdaqGS:NTES Ownership Breakdown February 22nd 2021</span></p>\n<p><b>What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About NetEase?</b></p>\n<p>Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.</p>\n<p>We can see that NetEase does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of NetEase, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c2aa861601e81715cb26998290f435b\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"524\"><span>NasdaqGS:NTES Earnings and Revenue Growth February 22nd 2021</span></p>\n<p>We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in NetEase. With a 42% stake, CEO Lei Ding is the largest shareholder. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 3.6% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 3.2% by the third-largest shareholder.</p>\n<p>On looking further, we found that 52% of the shares are owned by the top 4 shareholders. In other words, these shareholders have a meaningful say in the decisions of the company.</p>\n<p>While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.</p>\n<p><b>Insider Ownership Of NetEase</b></p>\n<p>While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.</p>\n<p>I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.</p>\n<p>Our most recent data indicates that insiders own a reasonable proportion of NetEase, Inc.. It has a market capitalization of just US$86b, and insiders have US$36b worth of shares in their own names. That's quite significant. Most would be pleased to see the board is investing alongside them. You may wish to&nbsp;access this free chart showing recent trading by insiders.</p>\n<p><b>General Public Ownership</b></p>\n<p>The general public holds a 17% stake in NetEase. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.</p>","source":"lsy1580989461469","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc><strong>Simply Wall St</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易","09999":"网易-S"},"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151057580","content_text":"Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. I quite like to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger said 'Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.\nNetEase has a market capitalization of US$86b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. We'd expect to see both institutions and retail investors owning a portion of the company. In the chart below, we can see that institutional investors have bought into the company. We can zoom in on the different ownership groups, to learn more about NetEase.\nNasdaqGS:NTES Ownership Breakdown February 22nd 2021\nWhat Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About NetEase?\nInstitutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.\nWe can see that NetEase does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of NetEase, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.\nNasdaqGS:NTES Earnings and Revenue Growth February 22nd 2021\nWe note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in NetEase. With a 42% stake, CEO Lei Ding is the largest shareholder. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 3.6% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 3.2% by the third-largest shareholder.\nOn looking further, we found that 52% of the shares are owned by the top 4 shareholders. In other words, these shareholders have a meaningful say in the decisions of the company.\nWhile studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.\nInsider Ownership Of NetEase\nWhile the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.\nI generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.\nOur most recent data indicates that insiders own a reasonable proportion of NetEase, Inc.. It has a market capitalization of just US$86b, and insiders have US$36b worth of shares in their own names. That's quite significant. Most would be pleased to see the board is investing alongside them. You may wish to access this free chart showing recent trading by insiders.\nGeneral Public Ownership\nThe general public holds a 17% stake in NetEase. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363403281,"gmtCreate":1614160287643,"gmtModify":1704888876847,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570344398049048","idStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/363403281","repostId":"1151057580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151057580","pubTimestamp":1614159411,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151057580?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151057580","media":"Simply Wall St","summary":"Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder group","content":"<p>Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. I quite like to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger said 'Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.</p>\n<p>NetEase has a market capitalization of US$86b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. We'd expect to see both institutions and retail investors owning a portion of the company. In the chart below, we can see that institutional investors have bought into the company. We can zoom in on the different ownership groups, to learn more about NetEase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a0c2924ed2348105efa7c4c8a3f012\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>NasdaqGS:NTES Ownership Breakdown February 22nd 2021</span></p>\n<p><b>What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About NetEase?</b></p>\n<p>Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.</p>\n<p>We can see that NetEase does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of NetEase, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c2aa861601e81715cb26998290f435b\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"524\"><span>NasdaqGS:NTES Earnings and Revenue Growth February 22nd 2021</span></p>\n<p>We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in NetEase. With a 42% stake, CEO Lei Ding is the largest shareholder. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 3.6% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 3.2% by the third-largest shareholder.</p>\n<p>On looking further, we found that 52% of the shares are owned by the top 4 shareholders. In other words, these shareholders have a meaningful say in the decisions of the company.</p>\n<p>While studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.</p>\n<p><b>Insider Ownership Of NetEase</b></p>\n<p>While the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.</p>\n<p>I generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.</p>\n<p>Our most recent data indicates that insiders own a reasonable proportion of NetEase, Inc.. It has a market capitalization of just US$86b, and insiders have US$36b worth of shares in their own names. That's quite significant. Most would be pleased to see the board is investing alongside them. You may wish to&nbsp;access this free chart showing recent trading by insiders.</p>\n<p><b>General Public Ownership</b></p>\n<p>The general public holds a 17% stake in NetEase. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.</p>","source":"lsy1580989461469","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Type Of Shareholders Own The Most Number of NetEase, Inc. Shares?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc><strong>Simply Wall St</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易","09999":"网易-S"},"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/media/nasdaq-ntes/netease/news/what-type-of-shareholders-own-the-most-number-of-netease-inc","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151057580","content_text":"Every investor in NetEase, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTES) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. Large companies usually have institutions as shareholders, and we usually see insiders owning shares in smaller companies. I quite like to see at least a little bit of insider ownership. As Charlie Munger said 'Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.\nNetEase has a market capitalization of US$86b, so it's too big to fly under the radar. We'd expect to see both institutions and retail investors owning a portion of the company. In the chart below, we can see that institutional investors have bought into the company. We can zoom in on the different ownership groups, to learn more about NetEase.\nNasdaqGS:NTES Ownership Breakdown February 22nd 2021\nWhat Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About NetEase?\nInstitutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.\nWe can see that NetEase does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company's stock. This implies the analysts working for those institutions have looked at the stock and they like it. But just like anyone else, they could be wrong. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of NetEase, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.\nNasdaqGS:NTES Earnings and Revenue Growth February 22nd 2021\nWe note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in NetEase. With a 42% stake, CEO Lei Ding is the largest shareholder. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 3.6% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 3.2% by the third-largest shareholder.\nOn looking further, we found that 52% of the shares are owned by the top 4 shareholders. In other words, these shareholders have a meaningful say in the decisions of the company.\nWhile studying institutional ownership for a company can add value to your research, it is also a good practice to research analyst recommendations to get a deeper understand of a stock's expected performance. Quite a few analysts cover the stock, so you could look into forecast growth quite easily.\nInsider Ownership Of NetEase\nWhile the precise definition of an insider can be subjective, almost everyone considers board members to be insiders. The company management answer to the board and the latter should represent the interests of shareholders. Notably, sometimes top-level managers are on the board themselves.\nI generally consider insider ownership to be a good thing. However, on some occasions it makes it more difficult for other shareholders to hold the board accountable for decisions.\nOur most recent data indicates that insiders own a reasonable proportion of NetEase, Inc.. It has a market capitalization of just US$86b, and insiders have US$36b worth of shares in their own names. That's quite significant. Most would be pleased to see the board is investing alongside them. You may wish to access this free chart showing recent trading by insiders.\nGeneral Public Ownership\nThe general public holds a 17% stake in NetEase. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019595376,"gmtCreate":1648606252501,"gmtModify":1676534363687,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570344398049048","idStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great read on oil","listText":"great read on oil","text":"great read on oil","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019595376","repostId":"2223469821","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2223469821","pubTimestamp":1648569840,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2223469821?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-30 00:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Long-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2223469821","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1152px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1294277687/image_1294277687.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>primeimages/E+ via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong><em>Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative to consumption and supply is struggling. The war in the Ukraine has worsened the<span> near-term supply outlook further. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. This would put even more upward pressure on current prices and overall inflation. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets finally begin to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we currently witness in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. In this two part report, we look first at how we got to the current price environment and in the upcoming second part we do a deep dive into the long-term outlook for crude oil markets.</span></em></strong></p> <p>Oil prices have reached the highest levels since the all-time highs in 2008. The most obvious explanation for the sharp rally is the military conflict in Ukraine and the threat of a loss of Russian oil supplies. However, oil prices are only up $20 since the war started a month ago. In fact, Brent crude oil prices have been rising relentlessly ever since the lows of around $20/bbl we saw during first lockdowns in spring 2020, to $95/bbl just before the invasion (see Exhibit 1).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 1: Oil prices rallied close to $80/bbl from their lows before the Ukraine invasion started</strong></p> <p>$/bbl</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil1_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While everybody points to the Ukrainian conflict to explain high prices, just a month ago there was a vigorous debate among analysts, media, and politicians about what was behind the fact that oil had broken out of the $60-80 range it has mostly been trading in for the past years (except the quick lockdown crash in early 2020) and started to rally relentlessly. Was it exceptional demand, reflective of a strong economy coming out of the pandemic as some claimed? Or rather supply bottlenecks, similar to the supply issues that plagued many other industries at the moment. Was it OPEC? Or just broad based inflation filtering into oil, given that almost any other commodity has shown similar or even higher price increases over the past two years.</p> <p>First, it wasn’t (and still isn’t) exceptionally strong demand. While global oil demand has significantly recovered from the lows in spring 2020, for 2022 it is still slightly below where it was before the pandemic (see Exhibit 2).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 2: Global oil demand has strongly recovered but remains below pre-pandemic levels so far</strong></p> <p>Mb/d, 12 month moving average, change vs 2019</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil2_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This means it is lagging overall economic activity, which, according to the World Bank and the IMF, is roughly 7% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019 (see Exhibit 3). A rule of thumb is that global oil demand grows roughly at the rate of GDP -2% efficiency gain per annum. In this case, a 7% GDP growth over two years plus 2% compounded efficiency gains would suggest that oil demand – if it wasn’t for the remnants of the pandemic – should be roughly 1 million b/d above 2019 levels.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 3: cumulative changes to real GDP vs 2019</strong>%</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil3_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>IMF</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The reason why oil demand is lagging is mostly due to the lack of jet fuel demand. Jet fuel accounts for about 10% of global oil demand and air traffic is still quite a bit lower than it was before the pandemic. Globally commercial air traffic is still down 20% vs. pre-pandemic levels according to Flightradar24, a site tracking commercial air traffic (see Exhibit 4).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 4: Commercial flight activity is still 20% below pre-pandemic levels</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil4_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Flightradar24</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>During the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil demand crashed like it never had before. At its lowest point, oil demand was down 20%. As a comparison, during the great recession of 2008-2009, oil demand was down just about 3.5% at any point in time (see Exhibit 5).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 5: The demand destruction from the lockdowns dwarfed the demand destruction from the recession that followed the 2008-2009 credit crisis</strong></p> <p>Kb/d year-over-year</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil5_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This demand destruction in early 2020 led to a massive build in global inventories. Global total petroleum stocks rose at the fastest rate and reached their highest levels in history as producers didn’t curb production fast enough (see Exhibit 6).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 6: Total commercial petroleum’s stocks, including floating storage, reached their highest levels in history in 2020</strong></p> <p>Kb</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil6_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Which is where OPEC+ comes in. After taking a very different direction during the February meeting (Saudi Arabia, upset about Russia’s refusal to agree to production cuts, ramped up production to all-time highs and flooded the market with crude, promptly crashing prices), OPEC+ swiftly decided to act when it became clear what the global lockdowns did to demand. The group cut oil production by around 10 million b/d (see Exhibit 7). And surprisingly, all group members stuck to their quotas since that decision was made.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 7: OPEC swiftly cut production by a record amount when the effects of the lockdowns on demand became clear</strong></p> <p>Kb/d (OPEC crude oil only, auxiliary states in OPEC+ not included)</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil7_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Subsequently, the group provided a roadmap for the return of these barrels. For the first couple months of this oil production recovery, OPEC+ was careful that the oil market remained in deficit. As a result, oil inventories kept falling until they reached their 5-year average in mid-summer 2021 (se Exhibit 8).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 8: Global petroleum stocks were back to 5-year averages by mid-summer 2021</strong></p> <p>Kb, levels vs 5-year average</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil8_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>However, actual OPEC+ production is lagging the quotas for many months now, and the gap between actual and target becomes increasingly wider. The reason is that some of the smaller OPEC members struggle to produce as much as they would be allowed under the plan (see exhibit 9). These are not voluntary cuts. It has become obvious that the capacity of many OPEC members simply isn’t there as these countries are plagued with domestic issues that prevent full production. On top of that, the non-OPEC members of OPEC+ are also producing about 200kb/d below their quotas, and that was before the war in Ukraine reduced Russian exports.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 9: Many OPEC members keep producing below their quotas</strong></p> <p>Kb/d</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil9_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>OPEC</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Interestingly, the core OPEC members Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are for once not stepping in to fill the gap. In our view, this may be partially politically driven due to some tensions between the US and some OPEC members, but more likely it is also due to their own capacity constraints. In April 2020, Saudi Arabia briefly ramped up production to 12mb/d as the Kingdom reacted to Russia’s refusal to commit to a production cut (see Exhibit 10). This strategy backfired as it meant raising output right into the largest demand crash in history. However, it does give some insights to what Saudi's production capacity is. We think Saudi Arabia went beyond their sustainable production capacity at that time. It is unlikely that they could sustain this output level for an extended period. Their production capacity for the medium term is likely closer to 11-11.5mb/d. Any capacity increase would require substantial investments in our view, and it would take years to achieve.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 10: Saudi Arabia demonstrated that they can push production to 12mb/d over a very brief period, but sustainable production capacity is likely significantly lower</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil10_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research, OPEC</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>While Saudi Arabia is still producing below their sustainable capacity, the country can’t really step in and fill the production gaps left by the less stable OPEC producers, as it would mean it could not increase production anymore when it is supposed to according to the OPEC+ roadmap. The country has no choice but to stick to their own predetermined production path. The same is true for other core-OPEC members. As a result, demand continued to exceed production in 1Q22 at a time when in theory, we should have already shifted to an oversupply in the first two months of the year.</p> <p>This has pushed global inventories lower and lower. As we have explained in earlier reports, there is a very strong relationship between the level of inventories and crude oil time-spreads, the difference between the prompt prices and longer-dated prices on the forward curve (see Exhibit 11). In a nutshell, when inventories are low, consumers of a commodity – in this case petroleum products – are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery. It is preferable to pay this premium than to face the risk of having to shut down the business because they run out of oil (jet fuel, diesel etc.). In such a situation, prompt prices trade over future prices which is called “backwardation”. When inventories are high, consumers have no preference for immediate delivery. Instead, storage, insurance, and financing costs mean that consumers rather not sit on inventories, but would prefer delivery in the future. In that situation, prompt prices will trade below forward prices and the curve is in “contango”.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 11: Crude oil time-spreads are inversely correlated to inventories</strong></p> <p>% time-spread 1-60 months, prediction based on inventory levels</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil11_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The extent to which a forward curve is in backwardation or contango is strongly correlated to the level scarcity or abundance of inventories relative to demand. At the moment, we see an extreme level of backwardation in the front of the curve. The market signals extreme scarcity of oil stocks and the risk of further supply shortages. This is the result of the persisting undersupply discussed above that led to a situation of very low inventories, but also due to concerns over potentially even larger shortages due to missing Russian crude oil supplies.</p> <p>To what extent the Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this issue from a fundamental perspective is difficult to assess at the moment. So far the US is the only nation that has outright banned imports of Russian oil and products. While this might create challenges for some refiners that rely on specific grades of imported Russian crude, it doesn’t alter the global supply and demand picture. US refiners will be forced to switch to an alternative grade but the Russian crude that used to go to the US (only about 670kb/d in 2021, of which 200kb/d was crude and the rest products, mostly fuel oil and VGO that was used in the US refinery system) will find its way to Asia (see Exhibit 12).</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 12: US import volumes of Russian petroleum are relatively small</strong></p> <p>Kb/d</p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil12_thumb1.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Goldmoney Research, EIA</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The EU has imposed some sanctions on Russia that impact the commodity sector overall, but it has so far refrained from banning energy imports. However, over the past weeks it has become apparent that the voluntary sanctioning by Western companies – sometimes as a result of public outcries – is having an impact on Russia's ability to export crude to the West regardless. There have been several reports that international commodity trading giants were forced to offer Urals (a Russian crude oil grade) at discounts of up to $30/bbl as they could not find a willing buyer. Russian crude exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe. These flows can’t be entirely substituted by seaborne exports at the moment. Hence the reluctance of Western oil firms, merchants, banks, shippers, seaports, and insurance companies to refrain to deal with Russian entities or outright stop dealing with anything that could be related to Russia can still lead to substantial reduction of Russian exports even as there is no legal ban. At the moment this probably affects around 1mb/d of Russian crude supplies. On top of that, Russia just announced that the CPC pipeline – a Kazakh-Russian Caspian Pipeline Consortium – is undergoing unplanned maintenance of up to two months, reducing global supplies by a further 0.5mb/d.</p> <p><strong>Exhibit 13: Russian oil and gas exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe</strong></p> <p><figure><picture> <img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/29/saupload_oil13.jpg\"/> </picture><figcaption></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Source: National Geographic</em></p> <p>On the flip side, IEA member states agreed to release 60mb of petroleum from their strategic reserves to alleviate the current shortages. Most of it will come from the US, and 29 other countries have committed to smaller volumes. However, that covers the current losses from Russia by just <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> to two months. The US had already orchestrated a coordinated SPR release last November to deal with high prices prior to the Ukraine war. The reaction was a short sell-off and an immediate recovery with prices pushing much higher.</p> <p>There is no easy way to predict how this picture changes over the coming months.</p> <ul> <li>It’s certainly key how the Ukrainian conflict progresses. On one hand, Europe is unlikely to ban oil and gas imports unless the conflict escalates in a dramatic way. On the other hand, while European sanctions are unlikely to be eased in the short term even if Ukraine and Russia come to some sort of agreement, such a scenario would likely ease the pressure on Western firms to maintain their voluntary sanctions.</li> <li>Core-OPEC members do have spare capacity, and they will bring it back as planned and not faster. But they run out of spare capacity in 2H2022.</li> <li>US production is also growing again, but not unlike OPEC, the shale oil producers made clear that they are also sticking to their production targets and are undeterred by higher prices, Non-OPEC (non-shale) production is growing as well, but it is recovering from the declines over the past 2 years rather than incrementally growing. This means it’s a one off and most of the increases have already happened.</li> <li>Finally, there is a significant chance that the Iranian nuclear deal will be reactivated, allowing for about 1 million b/d of crude production to come back online relatively quickly.</li> <li>This uncertain supply picture is facing a rapid improvement in global demand on the back of what seems to be the rapid abandonment of Covid19 mandates worldwide, which would allow air travel to rebound strongly over the coming months.</li> </ul> <p>We think the near-term risks are skewed to the upside as demand keeps exceeding supply despite the OPEC ramp up, and Russia supply issues only exacerbate this situation. This would lead to even stronger backwardation until prices start to impact demand enough to balance the market. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen.</p> <p>So it appears that the strong crude oil prices are mainly the result of a very backwardated curve because supply is struggling over the short term. While this adds to the overall inflation pressure coming from generally higher commodity prices, breakeven inflation expectations suggest that the market is expecting these pressures to remain only over the near term. In other words, the market thinks the supply issues will be transitory. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets have finally begun to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we are currently witnessing in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. We will do a deep dive into the strong move at the back end of the oil curve in an upcoming report.</p> <p><em>Original Post</em></p> <p><strong>Editor's Note:</strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Long-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLong-Term Oil Prices Beginning To Reflect The Coming Oil Shortage - Part I\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-30 00:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498357-long-term-oil-prices-beginning-to-reflect-the-coming-oil-shortage-part-i","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2223469821","content_text":"primeimages/E+ via Getty Images Brent crude oil prices rallied $100/bbl since the lows in 2020. This reflects very tight fundamentals, where petroleum inventories are at extremely low levels relative to consumption and supply is struggling. The war in the Ukraine has worsened the near-term supply outlook further. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. This would put even more upward pressure on current prices and overall inflation. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets finally begin to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we currently witness in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. In this two part report, we look first at how we got to the current price environment and in the upcoming second part we do a deep dive into the long-term outlook for crude oil markets. Oil prices have reached the highest levels since the all-time highs in 2008. The most obvious explanation for the sharp rally is the military conflict in Ukraine and the threat of a loss of Russian oil supplies. However, oil prices are only up $20 since the war started a month ago. In fact, Brent crude oil prices have been rising relentlessly ever since the lows of around $20/bbl we saw during first lockdowns in spring 2020, to $95/bbl just before the invasion (see Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Oil prices rallied close to $80/bbl from their lows before the Ukraine invasion started $/bbl   Goldmoney Research While everybody points to the Ukrainian conflict to explain high prices, just a month ago there was a vigorous debate among analysts, media, and politicians about what was behind the fact that oil had broken out of the $60-80 range it has mostly been trading in for the past years (except the quick lockdown crash in early 2020) and started to rally relentlessly. Was it exceptional demand, reflective of a strong economy coming out of the pandemic as some claimed? Or rather supply bottlenecks, similar to the supply issues that plagued many other industries at the moment. Was it OPEC? Or just broad based inflation filtering into oil, given that almost any other commodity has shown similar or even higher price increases over the past two years. First, it wasn’t (and still isn’t) exceptionally strong demand. While global oil demand has significantly recovered from the lows in spring 2020, for 2022 it is still slightly below where it was before the pandemic (see Exhibit 2). Exhibit 2: Global oil demand has strongly recovered but remains below pre-pandemic levels so far Mb/d, 12 month moving average, change vs 2019   Goldmoney Research This means it is lagging overall economic activity, which, according to the World Bank and the IMF, is roughly 7% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019 (see Exhibit 3). A rule of thumb is that global oil demand grows roughly at the rate of GDP -2% efficiency gain per annum. In this case, a 7% GDP growth over two years plus 2% compounded efficiency gains would suggest that oil demand – if it wasn’t for the remnants of the pandemic – should be roughly 1 million b/d above 2019 levels. Exhibit 3: cumulative changes to real GDP vs 2019%   IMF The reason why oil demand is lagging is mostly due to the lack of jet fuel demand. Jet fuel accounts for about 10% of global oil demand and air traffic is still quite a bit lower than it was before the pandemic. Globally commercial air traffic is still down 20% vs. pre-pandemic levels according to Flightradar24, a site tracking commercial air traffic (see Exhibit 4). Exhibit 4: Commercial flight activity is still 20% below pre-pandemic levels   Flightradar24 During the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, oil demand crashed like it never had before. At its lowest point, oil demand was down 20%. As a comparison, during the great recession of 2008-2009, oil demand was down just about 3.5% at any point in time (see Exhibit 5). Exhibit 5: The demand destruction from the lockdowns dwarfed the demand destruction from the recession that followed the 2008-2009 credit crisis Kb/d year-over-year   Goldmoney research This demand destruction in early 2020 led to a massive build in global inventories. Global total petroleum stocks rose at the fastest rate and reached their highest levels in history as producers didn’t curb production fast enough (see Exhibit 6). Exhibit 6: Total commercial petroleum’s stocks, including floating storage, reached their highest levels in history in 2020 Kb   Goldmoney research Which is where OPEC+ comes in. After taking a very different direction during the February meeting (Saudi Arabia, upset about Russia’s refusal to agree to production cuts, ramped up production to all-time highs and flooded the market with crude, promptly crashing prices), OPEC+ swiftly decided to act when it became clear what the global lockdowns did to demand. The group cut oil production by around 10 million b/d (see Exhibit 7). And surprisingly, all group members stuck to their quotas since that decision was made. Exhibit 7: OPEC swiftly cut production by a record amount when the effects of the lockdowns on demand became clear Kb/d (OPEC crude oil only, auxiliary states in OPEC+ not included)   Goldmoney research Subsequently, the group provided a roadmap for the return of these barrels. For the first couple months of this oil production recovery, OPEC+ was careful that the oil market remained in deficit. As a result, oil inventories kept falling until they reached their 5-year average in mid-summer 2021 (se Exhibit 8). Exhibit 8: Global petroleum stocks were back to 5-year averages by mid-summer 2021 Kb, levels vs 5-year average   Goldmoney research However, actual OPEC+ production is lagging the quotas for many months now, and the gap between actual and target becomes increasingly wider. The reason is that some of the smaller OPEC members struggle to produce as much as they would be allowed under the plan (see exhibit 9). These are not voluntary cuts. It has become obvious that the capacity of many OPEC members simply isn’t there as these countries are plagued with domestic issues that prevent full production. On top of that, the non-OPEC members of OPEC+ are also producing about 200kb/d below their quotas, and that was before the war in Ukraine reduced Russian exports. Exhibit 9: Many OPEC members keep producing below their quotas Kb/d   OPEC Interestingly, the core OPEC members Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait are for once not stepping in to fill the gap. In our view, this may be partially politically driven due to some tensions between the US and some OPEC members, but more likely it is also due to their own capacity constraints. In April 2020, Saudi Arabia briefly ramped up production to 12mb/d as the Kingdom reacted to Russia’s refusal to commit to a production cut (see Exhibit 10). This strategy backfired as it meant raising output right into the largest demand crash in history. However, it does give some insights to what Saudi's production capacity is. We think Saudi Arabia went beyond their sustainable production capacity at that time. It is unlikely that they could sustain this output level for an extended period. Their production capacity for the medium term is likely closer to 11-11.5mb/d. Any capacity increase would require substantial investments in our view, and it would take years to achieve. Exhibit 10: Saudi Arabia demonstrated that they can push production to 12mb/d over a very brief period, but sustainable production capacity is likely significantly lower   Goldmoney Research, OPEC While Saudi Arabia is still producing below their sustainable capacity, the country can’t really step in and fill the production gaps left by the less stable OPEC producers, as it would mean it could not increase production anymore when it is supposed to according to the OPEC+ roadmap. The country has no choice but to stick to their own predetermined production path. The same is true for other core-OPEC members. As a result, demand continued to exceed production in 1Q22 at a time when in theory, we should have already shifted to an oversupply in the first two months of the year. This has pushed global inventories lower and lower. As we have explained in earlier reports, there is a very strong relationship between the level of inventories and crude oil time-spreads, the difference between the prompt prices and longer-dated prices on the forward curve (see Exhibit 11). In a nutshell, when inventories are low, consumers of a commodity – in this case petroleum products – are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery. It is preferable to pay this premium than to face the risk of having to shut down the business because they run out of oil (jet fuel, diesel etc.). In such a situation, prompt prices trade over future prices which is called “backwardation”. When inventories are high, consumers have no preference for immediate delivery. Instead, storage, insurance, and financing costs mean that consumers rather not sit on inventories, but would prefer delivery in the future. In that situation, prompt prices will trade below forward prices and the curve is in “contango”. Exhibit 11: Crude oil time-spreads are inversely correlated to inventories % time-spread 1-60 months, prediction based on inventory levels   Goldmoney Research The extent to which a forward curve is in backwardation or contango is strongly correlated to the level scarcity or abundance of inventories relative to demand. At the moment, we see an extreme level of backwardation in the front of the curve. The market signals extreme scarcity of oil stocks and the risk of further supply shortages. This is the result of the persisting undersupply discussed above that led to a situation of very low inventories, but also due to concerns over potentially even larger shortages due to missing Russian crude oil supplies. To what extent the Ukraine conflict has exacerbated this issue from a fundamental perspective is difficult to assess at the moment. So far the US is the only nation that has outright banned imports of Russian oil and products. While this might create challenges for some refiners that rely on specific grades of imported Russian crude, it doesn’t alter the global supply and demand picture. US refiners will be forced to switch to an alternative grade but the Russian crude that used to go to the US (only about 670kb/d in 2021, of which 200kb/d was crude and the rest products, mostly fuel oil and VGO that was used in the US refinery system) will find its way to Asia (see Exhibit 12). Exhibit 12: US import volumes of Russian petroleum are relatively small Kb/d   Goldmoney Research, EIA The EU has imposed some sanctions on Russia that impact the commodity sector overall, but it has so far refrained from banning energy imports. However, over the past weeks it has become apparent that the voluntary sanctioning by Western companies – sometimes as a result of public outcries – is having an impact on Russia's ability to export crude to the West regardless. There have been several reports that international commodity trading giants were forced to offer Urals (a Russian crude oil grade) at discounts of up to $30/bbl as they could not find a willing buyer. Russian crude exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe. These flows can’t be entirely substituted by seaborne exports at the moment. Hence the reluctance of Western oil firms, merchants, banks, shippers, seaports, and insurance companies to refrain to deal with Russian entities or outright stop dealing with anything that could be related to Russia can still lead to substantial reduction of Russian exports even as there is no legal ban. At the moment this probably affects around 1mb/d of Russian crude supplies. On top of that, Russia just announced that the CPC pipeline – a Kazakh-Russian Caspian Pipeline Consortium – is undergoing unplanned maintenance of up to two months, reducing global supplies by a further 0.5mb/d. Exhibit 13: Russian oil and gas exports are dependent on pipeline flows to Europe    Source: National Geographic On the flip side, IEA member states agreed to release 60mb of petroleum from their strategic reserves to alleviate the current shortages. Most of it will come from the US, and 29 other countries have committed to smaller volumes. However, that covers the current losses from Russia by just one to two months. The US had already orchestrated a coordinated SPR release last November to deal with high prices prior to the Ukraine war. The reaction was a short sell-off and an immediate recovery with prices pushing much higher. There is no easy way to predict how this picture changes over the coming months.  It’s certainly key how the Ukrainian conflict progresses. On one hand, Europe is unlikely to ban oil and gas imports unless the conflict escalates in a dramatic way. On the other hand, while European sanctions are unlikely to be eased in the short term even if Ukraine and Russia come to some sort of agreement, such a scenario would likely ease the pressure on Western firms to maintain their voluntary sanctions. Core-OPEC members do have spare capacity, and they will bring it back as planned and not faster. But they run out of spare capacity in 2H2022. US production is also growing again, but not unlike OPEC, the shale oil producers made clear that they are also sticking to their production targets and are undeterred by higher prices, Non-OPEC (non-shale) production is growing as well, but it is recovering from the declines over the past 2 years rather than incrementally growing. This means it’s a one off and most of the increases have already happened. Finally, there is a significant chance that the Iranian nuclear deal will be reactivated, allowing for about 1 million b/d of crude production to come back online relatively quickly. This uncertain supply picture is facing a rapid improvement in global demand on the back of what seems to be the rapid abandonment of Covid19 mandates worldwide, which would allow air travel to rebound strongly over the coming months.  We think the near-term risks are skewed to the upside as demand keeps exceeding supply despite the OPEC ramp up, and Russia supply issues only exacerbate this situation. This would lead to even stronger backwardation until prices start to impact demand enough to balance the market. The current conditions in the oil market are critical and we could see real oil shortages by this summer if the disruptions to Russian oil supplies persist or even worsen. So it appears that the strong crude oil prices are mainly the result of a very backwardated curve because supply is struggling over the short term. While this adds to the overall inflation pressure coming from generally higher commodity prices, breakeven inflation expectations suggest that the market is expecting these pressures to remain only over the near term. In other words, the market thinks the supply issues will be transitory. However, we think an even bigger and more permanent issue has been brewing in oil markets for years and it is finally filtering through to the back end of the forward curve. Longer dated prices have broken out of their 5-year range and have been moving up relentlessly. We think the oil markets have finally begun to understand that a lack of investments in large oil projects over the past years is threatening supply over the entire next decade, at a time when demand will still be growing as the electrification of the transportation sector will not impact demand meaningfully for years to come. The sharp upward moves in oil prices amidst a broader commodity prices rally have pushed realized inflation and near-term (0-2y) inflation expectations up strongly. But inflation expectations beyond that time horizon have proven to be resilient. So far the back end of the oil curve moved up only $15/bbl. However, we think that once back end prices are moving in a similar fashion to what we are currently witnessing in the front, longer-term inflation expectations will likely begin to move up too. We will do a deep dive into the strong move at the back end of the oil curve in an upcoming report. Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322256004,"gmtCreate":1615812793108,"gmtModify":1704786884114,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570344398049048","idStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322256004","repostId":"2119912949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119912949","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1615809060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2119912949?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-15 19:51","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Southwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119912949","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. $(LUV)$ rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrie","content":"<p>Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$(LUV)$</a> rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597a9e8789c906460369ccf9b20576e3\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>The company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. </p>\n<p>The company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. </p>\n<p>The company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. </p>\n<p>The stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JETS\">U.S. Global Jets ETF</a> (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 6.7%.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Southwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouthwest Airlines stock surges after upbeat March operations update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-15 19:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$(LUV)$</a> rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597a9e8789c906460369ccf9b20576e3\" tg-width=\"1081\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>The company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. </p>\n<p>The company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. </p>\n<p>The company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. </p>\n<p>The stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JETS\">U.S. Global Jets ETF</a> (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 6.7%.</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JETS":"U.S. Global Jets ETF","LUV":"西南航空"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119912949","content_text":"Shares of Southwest Airlines Co. $(LUV)$ rose 2.4% in premarket trading Monday, after the air carrier indicated that March operating revenue has been better than expected, while fuel costs are expected to be higher and cash burn is less. \n\nThe company said that while it continues to experience significant negative effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, operating revenue for March is now expected to be down 15% to 20% from a year ago, compared with a previous estimate of down 20% to 30%. Capacity is expected to be down 14% versus previous expectations of down 15%, as load factor is now estimated at 65% to 70% compared with previous estimates of down 60% to 70%. \nThe company affirmed its guidance of first-quarter capacity to decrease about 35%. Separately, the company raised its estimate for first-quarter fuel costs to $1.65 to $1.75 a gallon from $1.60 to $1.70, while lowering its cash burn estimate to an $14 million per day from $15 million per day. \nThe company said it recently received the remaining extended payroll support proceeds of about $864 million from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021. \nThe stock has run up 31.5% over the past three months through Friday, while the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) has advanced 20.1% and the S&P 500 has gained 6.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328947777,"gmtCreate":1615483126499,"gmtModify":1704783536381,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570344398049048","idStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oxy and conocophillips","listText":"oxy and conocophillips","text":"oxy and conocophillips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328947777","repostId":"1120482093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120482093","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1615475560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120482093?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-11 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"OPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120482093","media":"Reuters","summary":"OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the","content":"<p>OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.</p>\n<p>In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.</p>\n<p>“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.</p>\n<p>“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”</p>\n<p>The latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.</p>\n<p>Oil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.</p>\n<p>OPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.</p>\n<p>“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.</p>\n<p><b>SAUDI DELIVERS CUT</b></p>\n<p>The report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.</p>\n<p>OPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.</p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.</p>\n<p>OPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.</p>\n<p>While those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.</p>\n<p>Partly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.</p>\n<p>In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.</p>\n<p>“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.</p>\n<p>“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”</p>\n<p>The latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.</p>\n<p>Oil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.</p>\n<p>OPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.</p>\n<p>“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.</p>\n<p><b>SAUDI DELIVERS CUT</b></p>\n<p>The report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.</p>\n<p>OPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.</p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.</p>\n<p>OPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.</p>\n<p>While those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.</p>\n<p>Partly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120482093","content_text":"OPEC said on Thursday a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market.\nIn a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half.\n“Total oil demand is foreseen to reach 96.3 million bpd with most consumption appearing in the second half,” OPEC said in the report.\n“This year’s demand growth will not be able to compensate for the major shortfall from 2020 as mobility is forecast to remain impaired throughout 2021.”\nThe latest forecasts could bolster cautious views among OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, on how quickly to unwind more of last year’s record oil output cuts. OPEC+ last week decided to mostly extend current curbs into April.\nOil held onto most of an earlier gain after the report was released, trading close to $69 a barrel. Prices have risen to pre-pandemic highs this month, boosted by hopes of economic recovery and OPEC+ supply restraint.\nOPEC raised its forecast of world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 4.8% as activity accelerates by the end of the first half. Still, it sees the mobility restrictions continuing to dampen oil demand, despite faster growth.\n“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said.\nSAUDI DELIVERS CUT\nThe report also showed lower OPEC oil output in February as most OPEC+ members returned to output restraint and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd for February and March.\nOPEC said its February output fell by 650,000 bpd to 24.85 million bpd, driven by the Saudi move. Riyadh told OPEC it made almost all of the reduction, lowering production by 956,000 bpd to 8.147 million bpd.\nSaudi Arabia as part of last week’s OPEC+ decision extended the voluntary cut into April.\nOPEC+ cut supply by a record 9.7 million bpd last year to support the market as demand collapsed. The producers as of February were still withholding about 8.1 million bpd.\nWhile those curbs persist, rivals are boosting supply and OPEC raised its forecast of non-OPEC output growth to almost 1 million bpd led by Canada, the United States, Norway and Brazil - although U.S. shale output is still expected to drop.\nPartly due to the higher non-OPEC supply forecast, OPEC trimmed its estimate of global demand for its crude to 27.3 million bpd this year. This would still allow for higher average OPEC production in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362797654,"gmtCreate":1614665713178,"gmtModify":1704773748379,"author":{"id":"3570344398049048","authorId":"3570344398049048","name":"Jenlch","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39cbca1ca72031eda1eab18e1cdace1e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570344398049048","idStr":"3570344398049048"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362797654","repostId":"2116561881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2116561881","pubTimestamp":1614662073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2116561881?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-02 13:14","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2116561881","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition c","content":"<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong mulling listing of Spacs: Finance chief\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/hong-kong-mulling-listing-of-spacs-finance-chief","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2116561881","content_text":"HONG KONG (BLOOMBERG) - Hong Kong is exploring allowing the listing of special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), jumping into a market that has sparked a frenzy of US dealmaking.\nThe government has asked the Hong Kong exchange and the city's financial regulator to look into having Spacs list, according to Financial Secretary Paul Chan.\nThe aim is to allow the new fundraising arrangements, while upholding investors protections, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday (March 2). \"We are looking at it seriously,\" he said, without providing a time-line.\nSpacs, or blank-cheque companies, raise money from investors and then look to acquire another business, usually a private one, within two years. Historically just a US product, a growing number of Asia-based funds and financiers have been setting up Spacs with the aim of snapping up a target in the fast-growing region.\nThe listing of Spacs has propelled IPO deals in the US to the fastest pace in 12 years so far this year, with the vehicles comprising 77 per cent of the announced offerings. The city's main Asian competitor, Singapore, is looking at opening up for Spacs. Hong Kong's tycoons, including billionaire Li Ka-shing, are planning to raise such funds in the US.\nAllowing Spacs would further add momentum for the Hong Kong exchange, which last year had the busiest IPO year in a decade, boosted by the listing of a string of high-profile Chinese technology companies.\nThe initial steps into Spacs come after the city shook markets last week by raising the stamp duty on stock trading by 30 per cent to 0.13 per cent as part of an effort to boost spending and relieve economic distress amid a record budget deficit and the highest unemployment in 16 years. Shares sold off broadly on Wednesday as the budget was announced, sending the stock of the city's bourse plunging almost 9 per cent.\nMr Chan hit back at criticism that the move would harm the financial hub.\n\"According to the information available to us up till now, we don't think this modest increase in stamp duty has in anyway harmed our competitiveness,\" he said. The government has no plans to withdraw the hike and isn't at this time planning any more increases, he said.\n\"We will continue to monitor the situation, the market development and at this stage, I will not commit one way or the other,\" Mr Chan said.\nEconomic Momentum\nThe city's economy has struggled under political and social unrest in 2019 and last year's coronavirus outbreak, with tourism and consumption evaporating and unemployment surging. After a record 6.1 per cent contraction last year, the economy will grow in a range of 3.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent in 2021, the city estimates.\nUnveiled on Feb 24, the budget outlined HK$120 billion (S$20.6 billion) of fiscal support to spur consumption and ease joblessness. Key measures include a HK$5,000 consumption voucher for residents and new arrivals, as well as loans to the unemployed.\nMr Chan continues to be optimistic Hong Kong's economy will pick up momentum from the middle of the year and ultimately return to growth. It's particularly important to support the retail and restaurant industries to help accelerate the recovery, he said.\n\"It will be important for us to inject additional resources into the economy\" such as the HK$5,000 electronic vouchers, he said. The scope of the vouchers will be as wide as possible so residents can spend it according to their own circumstances, he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}