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2022-10-22

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While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-22 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.</p><p>The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.</p><p>&#34;This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,&#34; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277025934","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.\"This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,\" St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it \"really challenging\" for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said \"the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.\"Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized \"nonlinear\" risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.\"It really does begin to weigh on the economy,\" Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a \"closer call than normal\" whether recession can be avoided.With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching \"at some point.\"Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.INFLATION SURPRISESData on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.Yet even some of the Fed's most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he'd prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers' preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much \"tighter\" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as \"weighted to the upside.\"In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won't want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy \"pivot\" or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month's meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed's work is done.\"How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?\" Evans said. \"I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we're expecting inflation to be doing, and when you're going to be willing to say 'I think I've got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.' It's hard. That's a hard discussion.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932727664,"gmtCreate":1662995143658,"gmtModify":1676537179034,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932727664","repostId":"9932886111","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9932886111,"gmtCreate":1662929600234,"gmtModify":1676537162484,"author":{"id":"3583230105554843","authorId":"3583230105554843","name":"Keeley","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c720283f6ce0951b275b726005d199ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583230105554843","authorIdStr":"3583230105554843"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Stocks Technical Analysis #AMD #PLTR #XPEV [#ANALYSIS WITH @MillionaireTiger]","htmlText":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","listText":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","text":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f44b6a5b02abbb0be0ce79b6495289d6","width":"632","height":"365"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11bf6d3b8e1c7a5701d5d7f07a54439f","width":"632","height":"365"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47cd202b01158d237cbcf4b9dec41c6d","width":"632","height":"365"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932886111","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":2125,"gmtBegin":1662929600234,"gmtEnd":1663534380877,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"Do you agree?","choices":[{"id":8395,"sort":1,"name":"Yes","userSize":8,"voted":false},{"id":8396,"sort":2,"name":"No","userSize":1,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994595632,"gmtCreate":1661654911228,"gmtModify":1676536555775,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","listText":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","text":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994595632","repostId":"1128541490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128541490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661644682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128541490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 07:58","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128541490","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>QQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.</li><li>George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.</li><li>Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.</li><li>In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.</li></ul><h3>The Thesis</h3><p>At the end of 2021, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">Invesco QQQ ETF</a>, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc80a1f57b8dfee7b03b2b120bca92d\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)</p><h3>All Aboard The Hype Train</h3><p>If there&#39;s one thing that&#39;s worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edb873b2feb324ecda807b382f4ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Sector Allocations (Invesco)</p><p>Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0af3bad598a067897135ce8fbc3795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ ETF (Invesco)</p><p>The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f19d55e2420774df33a2ea218d39de\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ data by YCharts</p><p>In fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don&#39;t want to buy what&#39;s done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We&#39;ve studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that&#39;s not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e2ddbe72a70d8cddbdf93fc4d34160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sector Performance (Fidelity)</p><p>The average S&amp;P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.</p><p>It&#39;s About To Get Ugly</p><p><b>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597aa9aae54335b405a9cef0e95951a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)</p><p>We&#39;ve analyzed many of QQQ&#39;s top holdings individually, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a>, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco </a>. Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ&#39;s top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.</p><p>History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we&#39;d bet on an excessive bust.</p><h3>Risks To The Thesis</h3><p>Crazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.</p><p>Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying &#34;this time is different,&#34; he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn&#39;t a terrible idea. We&#39;ve seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone&#39;s portfolio, at the right valuation.</p><p>Our Valuation</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we&#39;ve analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&amp;P.</p><p>Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.</p><ul><li>Growing QQQ&#39;s EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We&#39;ve assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.</li></ul><h3>The Bottom Line</h3><p>The risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It&#39;s possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.</p><p><b>What To Do About It</b></p><p>We&#39;re projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There&#39;s despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c222464e3dc7817645ef7dd9a5499c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VOX Holdings (Vanguard)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128541490","content_text":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.The ThesisAt the end of 2021, the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)All Aboard The Hype TrainIf there's one thing that's worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.QQQ's Sector Allocations (Invesco)Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:QQQ ETF (Invesco)The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:QQQ data by YChartsIn fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We've studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that's not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:Sector Performance (Fidelity)The average S&P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.It's About To Get UglyQQQ's Top 10 HoldingsQQQ's Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)We've analyzed many of QQQ's top holdings individually, including Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Tesla , Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta , and Costco . Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ's top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we'd bet on an excessive bust.Risks To The ThesisCrazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying \"this time is different,\" he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn't a terrible idea. We've seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone's portfolio, at the right valuation.Our ValuationThe Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we've analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&P 500's EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&P.Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.Growing QQQ's EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We've assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.The Bottom LineThe risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It's possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.What To Do About ItWe're projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There's despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:VOX Holdings (Vanguard)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905034231,"gmtCreate":1659765719926,"gmtModify":1703766418035,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In depth reviw","listText":"In depth reviw","text":"In depth reviw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905034231","repostId":"1169492962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169492962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659757863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169492962?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169492962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>As the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for &#34;brand equity.&#34;</li><li>EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</li><li>Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.</li></ul><p>In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</p><p>I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC&#39;s IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain:&#34;</p><blockquote>&#34;SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.&#34;</blockquote><p>SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5714c58d0d64a5bccfd46926742db3f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 1</p><p><b>Is There a Doctor in the House?</b></p><p>In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by <i>level of funding</i> from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don&#39;t include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian&#39;s shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.</p><p>Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.</p><p>Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.</p><p>China&#39;s NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe93875be1bf07e575523460045fcdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe4c7e633c9284904c710ab74634088\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 2</p><p>Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.</p><p>That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a779539168c1ed560346f0bd91e702a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d2a4a21567a786f5279bb8518a03d\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 3</p><p>Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f10fa589992a7ab699d73dbc255e0f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd4ac75c6f128418a1b06ff8262e2389\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 4</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Performance</b></p><p>Tesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4052a39627697f9c8983ee7159207dee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 5</p><p>In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.</p><p>While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.</p><p>The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.</p><p>Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.</p><p>Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.</p><p>EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.</p><p>Table 4 - Source: Cox Automotive</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426fa2458fb9e40d222a5fc1f897b9c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p>However, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla&#39;s share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0918cc0a62c48586076b6fbceda928a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p>I discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain&#34; that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:</p><ul><li>Developing a greater market share</li><li>Charging a price premium</li><li>Ease of Recognition</li><li>Differentiation from the competition</li></ul><p>Brand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.</p><p>None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.</p><p>In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a40f40a1f17002fa2eb540525072ea\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 7</p><p>The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169492962","content_text":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.Tesla's greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC's IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain:\"\"SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.\"SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.YChartsChart 1Is There a Doctor in the House?In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by level of funding from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don't include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian's shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.China's NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.Seeking AlphaChart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.YChartsChart 2Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.Seeking AlphaChart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.YChartsChart 3Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.Seeking AlphaChart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.YChartsChart 4Tesla's PerformanceTesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.YChartsChart 5In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.Table 4 - Source: Cox AutomotiveCox AutomotiveHowever, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla's share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.Cox AutomotiveInvestor TakeawayI discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain\" that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:Developing a greater market shareCharging a price premiumEase of RecognitionDifferentiation from the competitionBrand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.YChartsChart 7The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909750814,"gmtCreate":1658930754639,"gmtModify":1676536230341,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909750814","repostId":"2254337537","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2254337537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658926249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254337537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-27 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254337537","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","content":"<div>\n<p>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_crawler","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-27 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4566":"资本集团","SAP":"SAP SE","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","NYSE":"纽交所","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254337537","content_text":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061397409,"gmtCreate":1651563299644,"gmtModify":1676534927907,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baba going to the grave","listText":"Baba going to the grave","text":"Baba going to the grave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061397409","repostId":"2232742796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232742796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651547153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232742796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232742796","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>For investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.</li><li>He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal&#39;s 13F.</li><li>To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.</li><li>This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.</li><li>BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f665544ee7146e737beb7abd9b9596c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eric Francis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Many investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.</p><p>This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.</p><p>You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9660e48240f12c06602d9d01717c9f9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p><b>Munger and BABA</b></p><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9aab2ae2ddd5b74d6ef33ed6ea3682\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Yahoo Finance and Author</span></p><p><b>BABA’s core business remains intact</b></p><p>Firstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA&#39;s existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.</p><p>Under the above background, now let&#39;s look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f58f155de8d774911dedd2de0f281\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA Earnings report</span></p><p>Looking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.</p><p><b>BABA’s other high-growth opportunities</b></p><p>Besides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.</p><p>Its cloud segment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3115a0e3831d1e821d9bf124fb342f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA earnings report</span></p><p><b>Valuation too cheap to ignore</b></p><p>Munger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.</p><p>At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e840aa8a60cc3895b5046c5d64b48e23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>Conclusions and risks</b></p><p>This article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,</p><ul><li>My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.</li><li>Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.</li></ul><p>Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.</p><ul><li>First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.</li><li>Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.</li><li>Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.</li><li>Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-03 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2232742796","content_text":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal's 13F.To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.Eric Francis/Getty Images NewsThesisMany investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.Source: dataroma.comMunger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.Yahoo Finance and AuthorBABA’s core business remains intactFirstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA's existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.Under the above background, now let's look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.BABA Earnings reportLooking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.BABA’s other high-growth opportunitiesBesides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.Its cloud segment is one of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.BABA earnings reportValuation too cheap to ignoreMunger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.Seeking AlphaConclusions and risksThis article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069053322,"gmtCreate":1651206951978,"gmtModify":1676534871020,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069053322","repostId":"2231363422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2231363422","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1651176029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2231363422?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-29 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2231363422","media":"Reuters","summary":"Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growthQualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth</li><li>Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue</li><li>GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter</li><li>Indexes close: S&amp;P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy&#39;s contraction in the first quarter.</p><p>The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.</p><p>Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.</p><p>Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world&#39;s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.</p><p>In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday&#39;s strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p>&#34;When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,&#34; said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America&#39;s underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.</p><p>The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.</p><p>Unofficially, S&amp;P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.</p><p>Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&amp;P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.</p><p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.</p><p>Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.</p><p>Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-29 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth</li><li>Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue</li><li>GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter</li><li>Indexes close: S&amp;P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy&#39;s contraction in the first quarter.</p><p>The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.</p><p>Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.</p><p>Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world&#39;s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.</p><p>In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday&#39;s strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p>&#34;When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,&#34; said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America&#39;s underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.</p><p>The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.</p><p>Unofficially, S&amp;P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.</p><p>Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&amp;P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.</p><p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.</p><p>Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.</p><p>Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","QCOM":"高通","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","CAT":"卡特彼勒","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AMGN":"安进","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4576":"AR","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4579":"人工智能",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4573":"虚拟现实","AAPL":"苹果","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2231363422","content_text":"Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growthQualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenueGDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarterIndexes close: S&P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy's contraction in the first quarter.The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world's most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday's strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.The S&P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.\"When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,\" said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.\"We've done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America's underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,\" Hill said.The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.Unofficially, S&P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.The S&P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060657479,"gmtCreate":1651144987237,"gmtModify":1676534858353,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060657479","repostId":"2230454741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2230454741","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1651132673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2230454741?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230454741","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The data-mining firm is still a polarizing investment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Palantir Technologies&#39;</b> stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm&#39;s shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high of $39 last January, but subsequently tumbled all the way back to about $12 a share.</p><p>Does that pullback represent a good buying opportunity for patient investors? Let&#39;s review the bull and bear cases to decide.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a745be90180fb00049b4e1dd3a5ed89\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>What does Palantir do?</h2><p>Palantir operates two main software platforms: Gotham, which serves government clients; and Foundry, which serves large enterprises and private organizations. A third platform, Apollo, provides automatic software updates for both platforms as a cloud-based service.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s software aggregates data from disparate sources and then analyzes it with artificial intelligence algorithms to help organizations make informed decisions. For example, the U.S. Army uses Gotham to collect intel from various government agencies and local sources to plan missions. Large companies can also use its algorithms to streamline their operations.</p><h2>Why do the bulls love Palantir?</h2><p>The bulls love Palantir because it has firm ties to the U.S. government, it generates robust growth, and its gross margins are expanding.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s revenue rose 47% in 2020, then grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021. It ended 2021 with a high dollar-based net retention rate of 131%, and it expects its revenue to grow by at least 30% annually through 2025.</p><p>Its government revenue in 2021 rose 34% to $645 million, but it still decelerated from its 77% growth in 2020. However, its commercial revenue in 2021 increased 47% to $897 million, which accelerated from its 22% growth in 2020.</p><p>The acceleration of its commercial business silenced the bears who initially claimed Palantir would struggle against similar data-mining companies like <b>C3.ai</b>, <b>Alteryx</b>, and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a></b> in the crowded enterprise analytics market.</p><p>The bulls also believe its government slowdown is temporary since it still secured plenty of new deals over the past year. In addition, Ukraine war could generate fresh tailwinds for Gotham as more government agencies upgrade their analytics systems to counter the threat of new cyberattacks and military aggression across Europe.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s adjusted gross margin rose from 71% in 2019 to 81% in 2020, then increased to 82% in 2021. That ongoing expansion indicates it still has plenty of pricing power in the data mining and analytics market.</p><h2>Why do the bears hate Palantir?</h2><p>The bears dislike Palantir because it faces a hidden competitor within the U.S. government, it&#39;s unprofitable, and its stock still isn&#39;t cheap.</p><p>Palantir has a controversial reputation because its co-founder Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump. Immigration and Customs Enforcement&#39;s (ICE) usage of Gotham to deport undocumented immigrants also sparked internal protests and resignations across the company.</p><p>Those controversies, along with long-term cost concerns, have reportedly driven ICE to develop its own internal replacement for Gotham called RAVEn. If other U.S. government agencies follow ICE&#39;s lead, Palantir&#39;s dream of becoming the &#34;default operating system for data across the U.S. government&#34; (which it boldly set in its S-1 filing) could quickly end.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s net loss widened from $580 million in 2019 to $1.17 billion in 2020, partly due to the costs of its direct listing, and narrowed to $520 million in 2021. That red ink makes Palantir a risky stock to own as interest rates rise.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock has nearly taken a round trip back to its initial opening price, but it still isn&#39;t undervalued at 12 times this year&#39;s sales. By comparison, <b>Twilio </b>(TWLO -6.26%) -- the cloud-based communications company which expects to generate at least 30% organic revenue growth over the next few years -- trades at just six times this year&#39;s sales.</p><p>To make matter worse, Palantir continues to dilute its shares with its generous stock-based compensation (50% of its revenue in 2021) as its insiders cash out. On a weighted-average basis, Palantir&#39;s outstanding shares nearly doubled in 2021. Yet over the past three months, its insiders sold more than twice as many shares as they purchased.</p><h2>The bears still have the upper hand</h2><p>Palantir&#39;s business should continue to grow at an impressive clip this year, but its ongoing losses, dilution, and insider sales indicate its stock could still drop even further in this challenging market. Therefore, I believe investors should avoid Palantir until its price-to-sales ratio drops to the single digits.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-28 15:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies' stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm's shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2230454741","content_text":"Palantir Technologies' stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm's shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high of $39 last January, but subsequently tumbled all the way back to about $12 a share.Does that pullback represent a good buying opportunity for patient investors? Let's review the bull and bear cases to decide.Image source: Getty Images.What does Palantir do?Palantir operates two main software platforms: Gotham, which serves government clients; and Foundry, which serves large enterprises and private organizations. A third platform, Apollo, provides automatic software updates for both platforms as a cloud-based service.Palantir's software aggregates data from disparate sources and then analyzes it with artificial intelligence algorithms to help organizations make informed decisions. For example, the U.S. Army uses Gotham to collect intel from various government agencies and local sources to plan missions. Large companies can also use its algorithms to streamline their operations.Why do the bulls love Palantir?The bulls love Palantir because it has firm ties to the U.S. government, it generates robust growth, and its gross margins are expanding.Palantir's revenue rose 47% in 2020, then grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021. It ended 2021 with a high dollar-based net retention rate of 131%, and it expects its revenue to grow by at least 30% annually through 2025.Its government revenue in 2021 rose 34% to $645 million, but it still decelerated from its 77% growth in 2020. However, its commercial revenue in 2021 increased 47% to $897 million, which accelerated from its 22% growth in 2020.The acceleration of its commercial business silenced the bears who initially claimed Palantir would struggle against similar data-mining companies like C3.ai, Alteryx, and Salesforce in the crowded enterprise analytics market.The bulls also believe its government slowdown is temporary since it still secured plenty of new deals over the past year. In addition, Ukraine war could generate fresh tailwinds for Gotham as more government agencies upgrade their analytics systems to counter the threat of new cyberattacks and military aggression across Europe.Palantir's adjusted gross margin rose from 71% in 2019 to 81% in 2020, then increased to 82% in 2021. That ongoing expansion indicates it still has plenty of pricing power in the data mining and analytics market.Why do the bears hate Palantir?The bears dislike Palantir because it faces a hidden competitor within the U.S. government, it's unprofitable, and its stock still isn't cheap.Palantir has a controversial reputation because its co-founder Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) usage of Gotham to deport undocumented immigrants also sparked internal protests and resignations across the company.Those controversies, along with long-term cost concerns, have reportedly driven ICE to develop its own internal replacement for Gotham called RAVEn. If other U.S. government agencies follow ICE's lead, Palantir's dream of becoming the \"default operating system for data across the U.S. government\" (which it boldly set in its S-1 filing) could quickly end.Palantir's net loss widened from $580 million in 2019 to $1.17 billion in 2020, partly due to the costs of its direct listing, and narrowed to $520 million in 2021. That red ink makes Palantir a risky stock to own as interest rates rise.Palantir's stock has nearly taken a round trip back to its initial opening price, but it still isn't undervalued at 12 times this year's sales. By comparison, Twilio (TWLO -6.26%) -- the cloud-based communications company which expects to generate at least 30% organic revenue growth over the next few years -- trades at just six times this year's sales.To make matter worse, Palantir continues to dilute its shares with its generous stock-based compensation (50% of its revenue in 2021) as its insiders cash out. On a weighted-average basis, Palantir's outstanding shares nearly doubled in 2021. Yet over the past three months, its insiders sold more than twice as many shares as they purchased.The bears still have the upper handPalantir's business should continue to grow at an impressive clip this year, but its ongoing losses, dilution, and insider sales indicate its stock could still drop even further in this challenging market. Therefore, I believe investors should avoid Palantir until its price-to-sales ratio drops to the single digits.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087676443,"gmtCreate":1651015136582,"gmtModify":1676534832272,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087676443","repostId":"1156040423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156040423","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1650986570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156040423?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156040423","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Shares of technology and software companies, including Palantir Technologies Inc, are trading lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of technology and software companies, including <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.</p><p>U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.</p><p>Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.</p><p>The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.</p><p>According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-26 23:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of technology and software companies, including <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.</p><p>U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.</p><p>Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.</p><p>The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.</p><p>According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156040423","content_text":"Shares of technology and software companies, including Palantir Technologies Inc, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9981188378,"gmtCreate":1666418390594,"gmtModify":1676537754956,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981188378","repostId":"2277025934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277025934","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1666400250,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277025934?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-22 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277025934","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next mont","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.</p><p>The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.</p><p>&#34;This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,&#34; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-22 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.</p><p>The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.</p><p>&#34;This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,&#34; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277025934","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.\"This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,\" St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it \"really challenging\" for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said \"the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.\"Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized \"nonlinear\" risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.\"It really does begin to weigh on the economy,\" Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a \"closer call than normal\" whether recession can be avoided.With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching \"at some point.\"Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.INFLATION SURPRISESData on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.Yet even some of the Fed's most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he'd prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers' preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much \"tighter\" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as \"weighted to the upside.\"In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won't want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy \"pivot\" or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month's meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed's work is done.\"How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?\" Evans said. \"I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we're expecting inflation to be doing, and when you're going to be willing to say 'I think I've got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.' It's hard. That's a hard discussion.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905034231,"gmtCreate":1659765719926,"gmtModify":1703766418035,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In depth reviw","listText":"In depth reviw","text":"In depth reviw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905034231","repostId":"1169492962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169492962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659757863,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169492962?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169492962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>As the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for &#34;brand equity.&#34;</li><li>EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</li><li>Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.</li></ul><p>In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.</p><p>I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC&#39;s IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain:&#34;</p><blockquote>&#34;SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.&#34;</blockquote><p>SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5714c58d0d64a5bccfd46926742db3f\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 1</p><p><b>Is There a Doctor in the House?</b></p><p>In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by <i>level of funding</i> from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don&#39;t include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian&#39;s shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.</p><p>Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.</p><p>Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.</p><p>China&#39;s NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfe93875be1bf07e575523460045fcdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efe4c7e633c9284904c710ab74634088\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 2</p><p>Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.</p><p>That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a779539168c1ed560346f0bd91e702a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d2a4a21567a786f5279bb8518a03d\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 3</p><p>Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f10fa589992a7ab699d73dbc255e0f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Chart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd4ac75c6f128418a1b06ff8262e2389\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 4</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Performance</b></p><p>Tesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4052a39627697f9c8983ee7159207dee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 5</p><p>In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.</p><p>While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.</p><p>The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.</p><p>Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.</p><p>Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.</p><p>EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.</p><p>Table 4 - Source: Cox Automotive</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426fa2458fb9e40d222a5fc1f897b9c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p>However, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla&#39;s share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0918cc0a62c48586076b6fbceda928a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Cox Automotive</p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p>I discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled &#34;MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of &#39;Brand Equity&#39; In The EV Automotive Value Chain&#34; that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:</p><ul><li>Developing a greater market share</li><li>Charging a price premium</li><li>Ease of Recognition</li><li>Differentiation from the competition</li></ul><p>Brand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.</p><p>None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.</p><p>In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a40f40a1f17002fa2eb540525072ea\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Chart 7</p><p>The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: No Competitor Yet From EV Startups\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4530333-tesla-no-competitor-from-ev-startups?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169492962","content_text":"SummaryAs the EV race heats up, EV startups that went public in the past year have average one-year returns of -56%, showing the need for \"brand equity.\"EV startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.Tesla is facing little competition from these EVs startups in the U.S. and Europe.Tesla's greatest challenge will come from traditional automotive companies with EV products.In an increasingly competitive business as incumbent automakers introduce their own EVs, startups are in trouble as sales have been minimal, venture money has dried up, and share prices have plummeted.I discussed in detail the lengths some of these startups have gone through to go public and get operating capital by forming Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), which are shell companies that have no operations but go public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company using the proceeds of the SPAC's IPO. I noted in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain:\"\"SPACs contributed half of the $29 billion raised publicly by EV manufacturers, suppliers and charging firms in 2021. EV startups Nikola (NKLA), Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Canoo (GOEV), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE), Fisker (FSR), and Lucid Group (LCID) all went public through SPAC deals over the last two years.\"SPACs go public at $10 per share, a price point that serves as a simple benchmark for how those stocks have been received. Of these SPAC companies, only the share price of Lucid Group is above its IPO price at $18.25, as shown in Chart 1.YChartsChart 1Is There a Doctor in the House?In Tables 1-3, I break down the current crop of EV startups by level of funding from all sources and compare each to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Table 1 shows the first five ranked companies. I don't include Rivian Automotive (RIVN), which would top the list by accumulating $10.7 billion in funding. Rivian's shares are down 65.95% since the IPO in 11/21, and the company continues to struggle. Layoffs at Rivian started in late July 2022 as the company races to cut costs amid a challenging economic climate and pressure to increase production. It delivered 1,227 vehicles in the first quarter and reported 4,467 deliveries in Q2. Rivian is targeting production of 25,000 vehicles this year, half of its initial production guidance for 2022.Table 1 shows significant variations in financial metrics among the five companies. TSLA shows positive TTM revenue, Net Income, and Gross Profit. All the startups reported TTM Revenue, but only Li Auto (LI) reported a positive Net Income and Gross Profit.Lucid Group was the top fund raiser on this list. Lucid delivered 360 EVs, helping to account for $57.7 million in revenue in Q1 2022, but revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6K to 7K vehicles following the release of itsQ2 results. Guidance earlier in the year was for production volume of 12K to 14K vehicles.China's NIO (NIO) delivered 25,059 electric cars in Q2, which is slightly above the guidance of 23,000-25,000. So far this year, NIO globally sold 50,827 electric cars. But NIO reported a loss from operations was RMB2,445.1 million (US$383.7 million) in the fourth quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 162.5% from the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 146.5% from the third quarter of 2021.Seeking AlphaChart 2 shows a similar story based on one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 1. TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. LI share price was -1.65%. NIO share price is down 55.84% showing investors the COVID situation in China remains fluid and EV shares in general remain under a cloud amid rising interest rates and fears of a global recession.YChartsChart 2Table 2 shows TSLA compared with startups ranked #5-8 based on level of funding. Only Fisker reported TTM revenues of just $96,000. Wall Street was initially attracted to its asset-light business model based on contract manufacturing. However, declining investor appetite for pre-revenue companies has taken the focus away from companies like Fisker.That will change as the Fisker Ocean is set to start production in November 2022 and sold exclusively through the Fisker app. According to the company, reservations for the Ocean electric SUV surpassed 50,000, a significant rise from the 40,000 preorders announced in early April. The Ocean with the base Sport trim priced at $37,499 before incentives.Seeking AlphaChart 3 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 2. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. FSR share price is down 40.57%. The stock is trading below its IPO price.YChartsChart 3Table 3 shows the remaining EV startups, but funding has not been disclosed. Of the four startups, only Ayro (AYRO) showed positive TTM revenue of just $2.92M but net income was -$32.01M. Ayro has a different business model than the other companies included in this article as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles for closed campus mobility, urban and community transport, local on-demand and last mile delivery, and government use. The company provides four-wheeled purpose-built electric vehicles for universities, business and medical campuses, last mile delivery services, and food service providers.Seeking AlphaChart 4 shows one-year share price percent change for the companies listed in Table 3. Again, TSLA is the only company showing positive growth at 29.72% as of the close on July 29, 2022. All others have exhibited large negative double-digit share performance.YChartsChart 4Tesla's PerformanceTesla reported a mixed Q2 earnings report on in its Q2 earnings call on July 20, 2022. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.27 vs. $1.81 expected. Revenue missed at $16.93 billion vs. $17.1 billion expected. Chart 5 shows quarterly performance through Q2 2022.YChartsChart 5In Q2 2022, TSLA achieved record production rates across the company, producing more than 258,000 vehicles and delivered 254,695 vehicles. That was below consensus estimates of 266,795 vehicles, and down from 310,048 in 1Q 2022, as the company faced a continuation of manufacturing challenges related to shutdowns, global supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and logistics and other complications, which limited its ability to consistently run our factories at full capacity.While the Shanghai factory was shut down fully and then partially for the majority of Q2, TSLA ended the quarter with a record monthly production level. Recent equipment upgrades will enable the company to continue to increase its production rate further.The Fremont Factory made a record number of vehicles in Q2. I see opportunities for further production rate improvements. The next generation of 4680 battery cell machinery has been installed in Texas and is in the process of commissioning. Factory output in Texas continues to grow.Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg reached an important milestone of over 1,000 cars produced in a single week while achieving positive gross margin during the quarter. Tesla expect the production rate to continue improving through the rest of the year.Table 4 shows U.S. EV shipments for Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 by model. In Q2, Tesla was the top-selling luxury brand in the U.S., outpacing all the established names: Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, as seen in Table 4.EV sales as a percentage of total automobile sales. In Q2, EV sales accounted for 5.6% of the total market, an increase from 5.3% in Q1. EV share in Q2 2021 was 2.7%. In Q2 2021, there were 19 EV models for sale in the U.S. One year later, the number jumped to 33.Table 4 - Source: Cox AutomotiveCox AutomotiveHowever, as new EV models continue to enter the market, Tesla's share of the EV segment is dropping. Last quarter, it fell to 66.1%, down from 74.6% in Q1 2022, as shown in Table 5. Tesla shipments by model are also shown. Importantly, Tesla is losing market share to traditional automobile companies with EV entrants, rather than the EV startups discussed above.Cox AutomotiveInvestor TakeawayI discussed in my July 27, 2022, Seeking Alpha article entitled \"MOKE + EV Technology Group: The Cost And Value Of 'Brand Equity' In The EV Automotive Value Chain\" that Brand Equity would be critical to growth of a startup. The advantages of Brand Equity, which gives a product competitive edge in the marketplace include:Developing a greater market shareCharging a price premiumEase of RecognitionDifferentiation from the competitionBrand equity can be defined as the additional value that a recognizable brand name adds to a product offering, and is created as customers becoming increasingly and more personally aware of a brand and build a connection with it.None of the EV startups detailed in Tables 1-3 are on the radar in sales in the U.S., Europe, and China. Indeed, the only competition for Tesla in the U.S. and Europe are established automobile companies with EV offerings. China is different with little competition coming from traditional non-Chinese automobile manufacturers with EV offerings, yet Tesla is still within the Top 10 of sales through June 2022.In Chart 7, I show share price for the five EV companies (including TSLA) listed in Table 1, and show EPS for the past one-year period. Indeed, only Tesla has a positive EPS.YChartsChart 7The point of this article is to expand on my thesis in my previous article the importance of Brand Equity. Tesla has achieved Brand Equity, as I showed in that article. But without it, EV startups are struggling. The competition to Tesla outside China is coming from established automobile makers with EV offerings, not these startups.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9060657479,"gmtCreate":1651144987237,"gmtModify":1676534858353,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip. ♦️✋️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9060657479","repostId":"2230454741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2230454741","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1651132673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2230454741?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-28 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2230454741","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The data-mining firm is still a polarizing investment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Palantir Technologies&#39;</b> stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm&#39;s shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high of $39 last January, but subsequently tumbled all the way back to about $12 a share.</p><p>Does that pullback represent a good buying opportunity for patient investors? Let&#39;s review the bull and bear cases to decide.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a745be90180fb00049b4e1dd3a5ed89\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>What does Palantir do?</h2><p>Palantir operates two main software platforms: Gotham, which serves government clients; and Foundry, which serves large enterprises and private organizations. A third platform, Apollo, provides automatic software updates for both platforms as a cloud-based service.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s software aggregates data from disparate sources and then analyzes it with artificial intelligence algorithms to help organizations make informed decisions. For example, the U.S. Army uses Gotham to collect intel from various government agencies and local sources to plan missions. Large companies can also use its algorithms to streamline their operations.</p><h2>Why do the bulls love Palantir?</h2><p>The bulls love Palantir because it has firm ties to the U.S. government, it generates robust growth, and its gross margins are expanding.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s revenue rose 47% in 2020, then grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021. It ended 2021 with a high dollar-based net retention rate of 131%, and it expects its revenue to grow by at least 30% annually through 2025.</p><p>Its government revenue in 2021 rose 34% to $645 million, but it still decelerated from its 77% growth in 2020. However, its commercial revenue in 2021 increased 47% to $897 million, which accelerated from its 22% growth in 2020.</p><p>The acceleration of its commercial business silenced the bears who initially claimed Palantir would struggle against similar data-mining companies like <b>C3.ai</b>, <b>Alteryx</b>, and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a></b> in the crowded enterprise analytics market.</p><p>The bulls also believe its government slowdown is temporary since it still secured plenty of new deals over the past year. In addition, Ukraine war could generate fresh tailwinds for Gotham as more government agencies upgrade their analytics systems to counter the threat of new cyberattacks and military aggression across Europe.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s adjusted gross margin rose from 71% in 2019 to 81% in 2020, then increased to 82% in 2021. That ongoing expansion indicates it still has plenty of pricing power in the data mining and analytics market.</p><h2>Why do the bears hate Palantir?</h2><p>The bears dislike Palantir because it faces a hidden competitor within the U.S. government, it&#39;s unprofitable, and its stock still isn&#39;t cheap.</p><p>Palantir has a controversial reputation because its co-founder Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump. Immigration and Customs Enforcement&#39;s (ICE) usage of Gotham to deport undocumented immigrants also sparked internal protests and resignations across the company.</p><p>Those controversies, along with long-term cost concerns, have reportedly driven ICE to develop its own internal replacement for Gotham called RAVEn. If other U.S. government agencies follow ICE&#39;s lead, Palantir&#39;s dream of becoming the &#34;default operating system for data across the U.S. government&#34; (which it boldly set in its S-1 filing) could quickly end.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s net loss widened from $580 million in 2019 to $1.17 billion in 2020, partly due to the costs of its direct listing, and narrowed to $520 million in 2021. That red ink makes Palantir a risky stock to own as interest rates rise.</p><p>Palantir&#39;s stock has nearly taken a round trip back to its initial opening price, but it still isn&#39;t undervalued at 12 times this year&#39;s sales. By comparison, <b>Twilio </b>(TWLO -6.26%) -- the cloud-based communications company which expects to generate at least 30% organic revenue growth over the next few years -- trades at just six times this year&#39;s sales.</p><p>To make matter worse, Palantir continues to dilute its shares with its generous stock-based compensation (50% of its revenue in 2021) as its insiders cash out. On a weighted-average basis, Palantir&#39;s outstanding shares nearly doubled in 2021. Yet over the past three months, its insiders sold more than twice as many shares as they purchased.</p><h2>The bears still have the upper hand</h2><p>Palantir&#39;s business should continue to grow at an impressive clip this year, but its ongoing losses, dilution, and insider sales indicate its stock could still drop even further in this challenging market. Therefore, I believe investors should avoid Palantir until its price-to-sales ratio drops to the single digits.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies Stock: Bear vs. Bull\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-28 15:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Palantir Technologies' stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm's shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/27/palantir-technologies-stock-bear-vs-bull/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2230454741","content_text":"Palantir Technologies' stock took investors on a wild ride after it went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020. The data-mining firm's shares started trading at $10, closed at an all-time high of $39 last January, but subsequently tumbled all the way back to about $12 a share.Does that pullback represent a good buying opportunity for patient investors? Let's review the bull and bear cases to decide.Image source: Getty Images.What does Palantir do?Palantir operates two main software platforms: Gotham, which serves government clients; and Foundry, which serves large enterprises and private organizations. A third platform, Apollo, provides automatic software updates for both platforms as a cloud-based service.Palantir's software aggregates data from disparate sources and then analyzes it with artificial intelligence algorithms to help organizations make informed decisions. For example, the U.S. Army uses Gotham to collect intel from various government agencies and local sources to plan missions. Large companies can also use its algorithms to streamline their operations.Why do the bulls love Palantir?The bulls love Palantir because it has firm ties to the U.S. government, it generates robust growth, and its gross margins are expanding.Palantir's revenue rose 47% in 2020, then grew 41% to $1.54 billion in 2021. It ended 2021 with a high dollar-based net retention rate of 131%, and it expects its revenue to grow by at least 30% annually through 2025.Its government revenue in 2021 rose 34% to $645 million, but it still decelerated from its 77% growth in 2020. However, its commercial revenue in 2021 increased 47% to $897 million, which accelerated from its 22% growth in 2020.The acceleration of its commercial business silenced the bears who initially claimed Palantir would struggle against similar data-mining companies like C3.ai, Alteryx, and Salesforce in the crowded enterprise analytics market.The bulls also believe its government slowdown is temporary since it still secured plenty of new deals over the past year. In addition, Ukraine war could generate fresh tailwinds for Gotham as more government agencies upgrade their analytics systems to counter the threat of new cyberattacks and military aggression across Europe.Palantir's adjusted gross margin rose from 71% in 2019 to 81% in 2020, then increased to 82% in 2021. That ongoing expansion indicates it still has plenty of pricing power in the data mining and analytics market.Why do the bears hate Palantir?The bears dislike Palantir because it faces a hidden competitor within the U.S. government, it's unprofitable, and its stock still isn't cheap.Palantir has a controversial reputation because its co-founder Peter Thiel was a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump. Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) usage of Gotham to deport undocumented immigrants also sparked internal protests and resignations across the company.Those controversies, along with long-term cost concerns, have reportedly driven ICE to develop its own internal replacement for Gotham called RAVEn. If other U.S. government agencies follow ICE's lead, Palantir's dream of becoming the \"default operating system for data across the U.S. government\" (which it boldly set in its S-1 filing) could quickly end.Palantir's net loss widened from $580 million in 2019 to $1.17 billion in 2020, partly due to the costs of its direct listing, and narrowed to $520 million in 2021. That red ink makes Palantir a risky stock to own as interest rates rise.Palantir's stock has nearly taken a round trip back to its initial opening price, but it still isn't undervalued at 12 times this year's sales. By comparison, Twilio (TWLO -6.26%) -- the cloud-based communications company which expects to generate at least 30% organic revenue growth over the next few years -- trades at just six times this year's sales.To make matter worse, Palantir continues to dilute its shares with its generous stock-based compensation (50% of its revenue in 2021) as its insiders cash out. On a weighted-average basis, Palantir's outstanding shares nearly doubled in 2021. Yet over the past three months, its insiders sold more than twice as many shares as they purchased.The bears still have the upper handPalantir's business should continue to grow at an impressive clip this year, but its ongoing losses, dilution, and insider sales indicate its stock could still drop even further in this challenging market. Therefore, I believe investors should avoid Palantir until its price-to-sales ratio drops to the single digits.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994595632,"gmtCreate":1661654911228,"gmtModify":1676536555775,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","listText":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","text":"Beware of the risk ahead. Buy within your means.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994595632","repostId":"1128541490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128541490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661644682,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128541490?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-28 07:58","market":"other","language":"en","title":"QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128541490","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>QQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.</li><li>George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.</li><li>Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.</li><li>In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.</li></ul><h3>The Thesis</h3><p>At the end of 2021, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">Invesco QQQ ETF</a>, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc80a1f57b8dfee7b03b2b120bca92d\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)</p><h3>All Aboard The Hype Train</h3><p>If there&#39;s one thing that&#39;s worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edb873b2feb324ecda807b382f4ee2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Sector Allocations (Invesco)</p><p>Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff0af3bad598a067897135ce8fbc3795\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ ETF (Invesco)</p><p>The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f19d55e2420774df33a2ea218d39de\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ data by YCharts</p><p>In fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don&#39;t want to buy what&#39;s done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We&#39;ve studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that&#39;s not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e2ddbe72a70d8cddbdf93fc4d34160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sector Performance (Fidelity)</p><p>The average S&amp;P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.</p><p>It&#39;s About To Get Ugly</p><p><b>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/597aa9aae54335b405a9cef0e95951a2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>QQQ&#39;s Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)</p><p>We&#39;ve analyzed many of QQQ&#39;s top holdings individually, including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a>, Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta </a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco </a>. Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ&#39;s top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.</p><p>History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we&#39;d bet on an excessive bust.</p><h3>Risks To The Thesis</h3><p>Crazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.</p><p>Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying &#34;this time is different,&#34; he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn&#39;t a terrible idea. We&#39;ve seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone&#39;s portfolio, at the right valuation.</p><p>Our Valuation</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we&#39;ve analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&amp;P.</p><p>Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.</p><ul><li>Growing QQQ&#39;s EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We&#39;ve assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.</li></ul><h3>The Bottom Line</h3><p>The risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It&#39;s possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.</p><p><b>What To Do About It</b></p><p>We&#39;re projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There&#39;s despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c222464e3dc7817645ef7dd9a5499c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VOX Holdings (Vanguard)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQQQ: An Excessive Bust Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537241-qqq-an-excessive-bust-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128541490","content_text":"SummaryQQQ tracks the hottest stocks in the world, American technology and the Nasdaq 100.George Soros coined the boom-bust model, in which he explained that excess on the upside often leads to excess on the downside.Looking at the fundamentals of QQQ, it could get ugly.In the decade ahead, we project returns of 4% per annum.The ThesisAt the end of 2021, the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks theNasdaq 100, reached a PE of 39 and a cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE ratio) of 60. Legendary investor George Soros has believed for manyyears that excess on the upside leads to excess on the downside. QQQ could fall much, much further as the excess drains out of its valuation. History has shown that when the CAPE ratio reaches 60, real returns for the following 15 years settle around negative 4% per annum:CAPE Ratio Vs. Real Returns (Lyn Alden)All Aboard The Hype TrainIf there's one thing that's worked over the past decade, it was holding U.S. tech stocks. Thus, the outperformance of QQQ, which has 50% of its holdings in information technology and another 30% or so in communication and consumer tech.QQQ's Sector Allocations (Invesco)Invesco advertises this ETF by pointing out its track record of outperformance and its trading volume:QQQ ETF (Invesco)The problem is, tech stocks outperformed massively before the dot com bubble burst. Following the implosion of 2000, it took more than 15 years for the Nasdaq 100 to recover its losses:QQQ data by YChartsIn fact, the reason QQQ has outperformed over the past 15 years is because tech underperformed from 2000 to 2010, in my opinion. This meant there were huge bargains in the sector as everyone was depressed about tech stocks. So you can see, you don't want to buy what's done well recently, in fact, you want to do just the opposite. We've studied several investors who outperformed the market over multiple decades, from Warren Buffett, to Carl Icahn, to Sir John Templeton, to Howard Marks. They all had one thing in common, they bought when there was blood in the streets. QQQ is concentrated in the hottest sectors of the past 5 years, and that's not where you want to hunt for outsized returns:Sector Performance (Fidelity)The average S&P 500 company survives only20 years, and for tech stocks, that lifespan could be even shorter as these businesses face brutal competition, and the industry is constantly changing. If we look at businesses that survived for more than200 years, we get banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), chemical companies like DuPont (DD), and consumer staples companies like Colgate-Palmolive (CL). These are simple and predictable businesses in industries that enjoy a very slow pace of change.It's About To Get UglyQQQ's Top 10 HoldingsQQQ's Top 10 Holdings (Invesco)We've analyzed many of QQQ's top holdings individually, including Apple , Microsoft , Amazon , Tesla , Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Meta , and Costco . Marked in red above are our expected annual returns for each business, with a 10-year time horizon. Overall, this equates to a 4% expected annual return for QQQ's top holdings. In other words, you could get an inflation adjusted return of 0% per annum holding these stocks.History has shown the market tends to swing from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic. Legendary investor George Soros coined this the boom-bust model. He believed that excessive margin, speculation, and exuberance on the upside creates excessive insolvency, fear, and selling on the downside. In other words, the larger the boom, the larger the bust. So, what do you think comes next for QQQ? If we had to wager, we'd bet on an excessive bust.Risks To The ThesisCrazy things can go on longer than you expect. In 1989, the PE of the Japanese index reached 60x earnings. The Nasdaq 100 is still nowhere near this level. Enthusiasm can always return in the short-run.Also, while Sir John Templeton has cautioned against saying \"this time is different,\" he conceded that 20% of the time it really is different. Technology stocks have defied gravity up to this point. And, holding a diversified group of technology stocks with a 30-year time horizon isn't a terrible idea. We've seen many of these businesses develop enduring moats and compound at a rapid pace for an extended period of time. An asset-light model and rapidly growing industry is generally a good place to be. Technology should be a part of everyone's portfolio, at the right valuation.Our ValuationThe Nasdaq 100 has aPE ratio of 27.2, but its earnings could still be at a cyclical peak, as evidenced by its much higher CAPE ratio. This means QQQ likely has earnings per share around $11.78. Looking at the aggregate of several QQQ businesses we've analyzed, combined with the cheaper, but slower growing businesses that round out the QQQ ETF, we believe EPS will grow at 8% per annum in the decade ahead. This growth should outpace the S&P 500's EPS, but the valuation is more stretched than the S&P.Our 2032 price target for QQQ is $445 per share, implying returns of 4% per annum with dividends reinvested.Growing QQQ's EPS at 8% per annum, we get $25.43 per share in 2032. We've assigned a terminal multiple of 17.5x as we believe growth will slow slightly in the decade that follows. Keep in mind, this is a base-case scenario.The Bottom LineThe risk and reward is unfavorable for QQQ, and some of the exuberance we saw on the upside could reverse on the downside. It's possible you get inflation-adjusted returns of 0% per annum even after holding for 10 years. With such long-duration cash flows, QQQ is very susceptible to an increase in interest rates.What To Do About ItWe're projecting higher returns in communication companies like Meta and Google than other names in this ETF. Interestingly, communication services has been the worst performing sector of the past 5 years. There's despondency here, and with despondency comes the potential for outsized returns. For ETF investors, we recommend Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Here are its top holdings:VOX Holdings (Vanguard)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061397409,"gmtCreate":1651563299644,"gmtModify":1676534927907,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Baba going to the grave","listText":"Baba going to the grave","text":"Baba going to the grave","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061397409","repostId":"2232742796","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2232742796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651547153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2232742796?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-03 11:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2232742796","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>For investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.</li><li>He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal&#39;s 13F.</li><li>To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.</li><li>This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.</li><li>BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f665544ee7146e737beb7abd9b9596c\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Eric Francis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Many investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.</p><p>This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.</p><p>You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9660e48240f12c06602d9d01717c9f9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p><b>Munger and BABA</b></p><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c9aab2ae2ddd5b74d6ef33ed6ea3682\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Yahoo Finance and Author</span></p><p><b>BABA’s core business remains intact</b></p><p>Firstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA&#39;s existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.</p><p>Under the above background, now let&#39;s look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f58f155de8d774911dedd2de0f281\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA Earnings report</span></p><p>Looking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.</p><p><b>BABA’s other high-growth opportunities</b></p><p>Besides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.</p><p>Its cloud segment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3115a0e3831d1e821d9bf124fb342f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>BABA earnings report</span></p><p><b>Valuation too cheap to ignore</b></p><p>Munger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.</p><p>At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e840aa8a60cc3895b5046c5d64b48e23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>Conclusions and risks</b></p><p>This article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,</p><ul><li>My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.</li><li>Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.</li></ul><p>Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.</p><ul><li>First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.</li><li>Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.</li><li>Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.</li><li>Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Group: Munger Position Halved, How About Yours?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-03 11:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505816-alibaba-group-munger-position-halved-how-about-yours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2232742796","content_text":"SummaryFor investors who take Charlie Munger’s action into their consideration, his Alibaba holdings now create some ambiguity.He doubled his stake in Alibaba twice in 2021 Q3 and 2021 Q4, but then the position was reduced by about a half according to the recent Daily Journal's 13F.To add to the ambiguity, he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation.This article reengineers Munger’s thought process to gain insights into where Alibaba is headed next.BABA is another textbook illustration of Munger’s wisdom of buying good businesses on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed its position.Eric Francis/Getty Images NewsThesisMany investors in Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (OTCPK:BABAF) probably included Charlie Munger’s actions as part of their investment decision. Indeed, the legendary billionaire doubled down on his BABA position twice in 2021 amid market concerns, and both times created a news splash and large stock price movements. But the most recent filing from the Daily Journal Corporation (DJCO) reported that his BABA position was reduced by about a half as you can see from the chart below. To add to the ambiguity, he has also announced that he has given up his role as Chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, a position held since 1977. Going forward, Munger will remain a director and keep being involved in its securities portfolio.This article is my attempt to interpret Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. As his role at DJCO winds down, we can no longer rely on his actions as guidance in our BABA decisions and we will have to rely on our own judgment more. By reengineering Munger’s thoughts, we can gain insights for ourselves not only on BABA but also on other investment opportunities.You will see next that my view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 best illustrates Munger’s wisdom of buying good business on the operating table, and I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently.Source: dataroma.comMunger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancelation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3 and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. As mentioned above, the market reacted too quickly based on perception (based on the information available at that time). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth, as elaborated in the next section immediately below.Yahoo Finance and AuthorBABA’s core business remains intactFirstly, my view is that many of the ongoing uncertainties as shown above (the Russian-Ukraine war, COVID interruptions, and the delisting fear) are only temporary and have little long-term relevance to BABA's existing core retail business. Secondly, the China government has expressed commitment to stabilizing the market and stimulating the economy. And key players like BABA will directly benefit from the government support, as reflected in the large share price rallies shortly after such announcements.Under the above background, now let's look at BABA’s core retail business. BABA reported a total of 1.28 billion Annual Active Consumers Globally for the twelve months ended December 31, 2021. It is an increase of approximately 43 million from the twelve months ended September 30, 2021. This includes 979 million consumers in China and 301 million consumers overseas, representing a quarterly net increase of over 26 million (2.6%) and 16 million (about 5%), respectively. Such growth rates may be lower than its faster pace in the past. However, they are still very healthy growth rates at BABA’s scale. And again, the market overaction has compressed its valuation so much so that it is now viewed as a terminally cheap and stagnating business. But the reality is the opposite.BABA Earnings reportLooking forward, I see the business well-positioned for future growth and the fear overblown for a few key considerations. As aforementioned, upon rational examination, many recent developments are not only temporary but also irrelevant or even positive for BABA. For example, in Sept 2021, BABA made a pledge of 100 billion RMB (or about $15.5B or $3.1B per year) to the Chinese common prosperity fund. To me, this is a positive sign because it shows that the Chinese government is working out a path forward for BABA and hints at what a “new norm” could be for BABA. And also the recent separation of its China retail and international retail is also a positive development in my view. it compartmentalized the regulatory complications and risks for its core business. BABA is now well-positioned to capture the international market. Cainiao continues to expand its global infrastructure by strengthening its end-to-end logistics capabilities, including ehubs, line-haul, sorting centers, and last-mile network.BABA’s other high-growth opportunitiesBesides its core bread-and-butter business, BABA is also well-positioned to capitalize on its investments in other high-growth and high-margin opportunities both domestically and internationally. It is in a key strategic position to capitalize on its local and cross-border supply and global infrastructure in many key areas.Its cloud segment is one of the highlights. The cloud market in China is projected to grow from RMB 0.2 Trillion in 2020 to RMB 1.0 Trillion in 2025, a 5x growth in 5 years. BABA’s cloud computing revenue grew by 50% year-on-year in its last fiscal year (which ended on 31 March 2021) despite losing a major customer in the March quarter. Since then, its cloud segment grew by another 20% year-over-year to RMB19.5B million (US$3.1B million) in the most recent quarter. At the same time, its cloud revenue is also becoming more diversified. The revenue sources used to be dominated by the internet industry (about 60%). As of the last quarter, the share of the revenue from the internet industry has decreased to about 48%. The solid 20% year-over-year growth reflected robust growth from other key sectors such as the financial and telecommunication industries.BABA earnings reportValuation too cheap to ignoreMunger bought BABA shares on the operating table when it was valued as a terminally cheap business. The valuation is still too cheap to ignore. BABA remains deeply undervalued in terms of all the metrics, net earnings, free cash flow, and assets. As seen from the chart below, it’s current valued at about 12x FW PE. And according to consensus estimates, its valuation at the current price will be in the single-digit range starting in 2025 and at about only 6x by 2028.At the same time, there is a large cash position on its balance sheet, making the valuation even more compressed than on the surface. Currently, about one-third of its market cap is in its current assets, and more than a half in its current assets, properties, and equity investments. With its China commerce raking in more than $90B of sales per year, the current valuation is equivalent to A) purchasing its equity at book value, B) paying for its China commerce operation at about 1.6x sales (Amazon is valued at about 3.5x sales in contrast), and C) getting all its other operations for free.Seeking AlphaConclusions and risksThis article attempts to reengineer Munger’s thought process surrounding his BABA positions. My view is that what has happened between 2021 Q3 and Q4 is another textbook illustration of his wisdom of buying good business on the operating table. And I still hold this view after DJCO trimmed the BABA position recently. In particular,My view is that as his role at DJCO winds down, the trim does not reflect his view anymore. At this point, BABA’s core businesses remain intact and are well-positioned for many high-growth areas especially its cloud computing and CAINIAO logistic infrastructure.Many current fears (listed below) are overblown or irrelevant to the business fundamentals in the long term. On the opposite, in the nearer term, BABA investment is further protected at this point by its large share repurchase plan and the Chinese government to stabilize the market and its economy. Its $25B share repurchase plan will shrink the share count by almost 9% at its current price. Given its current undervaluation, it will be highly accreditive to boost shareholder returns.Finally, BABA investment does involve considerable risks and is definitely not suitable for all investment styles. The key risks as I see are elaborated below.First, large price volatilities. its stock price has recently become dominated by market sentiment and disconnected from fundamentals. Its stock prices easily fluctuated 30%+ in a few days or even a single day recently in response to news and sentiments that may or may not have direct relevance to its business fundamentals.Second, the VIE structure risk could lead to a 100% loss. The Chinese government could confiscate foreign investments in BABA if they decide foreign investments made in BABA under the VEI structure are illegal according to Chinese law.Third, the delisting risk could also lead to a substantial loss. It led to a 20%+ loss following the next few days in the recent DiDi delisting example.Lastly, given the above large uncertainties, potential investors may consider a long call option to limit total exposure risks. As detailed in my earlier article, I think the market’s perception of its price variation is too conservative, resulting in a mispricing of its implied volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087676443,"gmtCreate":1651015136582,"gmtModify":1676534832272,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087676443","repostId":"1156040423","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156040423","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1650986570,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156040423?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156040423","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Shares of technology and software companies, including Palantir Technologies Inc, are trading lower ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of technology and software companies, including <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.</p><p>U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.</p><p>Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.</p><p>The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.</p><p>According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Palantir Technologies Shares Are Falling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-26 23:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Shares of technology and software companies, including <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.</p><p>U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.</p><p>Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.</p><p>The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.</p><p>According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156040423","content_text":"Shares of technology and software companies, including Palantir Technologies Inc, are trading lower amid overall market weakness. Concerns over future Fed rate hikes have weighed on growth sectors while economic slowdown concerns have pressured market sentiment.U.S. indices at large are also trading lower on continued weakness following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggesting a rate hike of 50 basis points is possible for May. The Fed has indicated it may move quicker on rate hikes to curb inflation.Fed policy outlook, rising Treasury yields and quarterly earnings reports have dragged markets lower in April. Last Tuesday’s session saw a 3-year high of 2.940% for the 10-year note.The 10-year note has risen from a low of 0.5% in 2020 to nearly 3.0% in April. In general, earnings years into the future are worth less today when interest rates rise. A rise in Treasury yields also correlates to a rise in bonds, which has the effect of dissuading cash from flowing into high-growth, high price/earnings stocks.According to data fromBenzinga Pro, Palantir Technologies is trading lower by 7.51% at $11.20. Palantir Technologies has a 52-week high of $29.29 and a 52-week low of $9.74.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9069053322,"gmtCreate":1651206951978,"gmtModify":1676534871020,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9069053322","repostId":"2231363422","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2231363422","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1651176029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2231363422?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-29 04:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2231363422","media":"Reuters","summary":"Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growthQualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenu","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth</li><li>Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue</li><li>GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter</li><li>Indexes close: S&amp;P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy&#39;s contraction in the first quarter.</p><p>The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.</p><p>Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.</p><p>Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world&#39;s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.</p><p>In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday&#39;s strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p>&#34;When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,&#34; said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America&#39;s underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.</p><p>The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.</p><p>Unofficially, S&amp;P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.</p><p>Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&amp;P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.</p><p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.</p><p>Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.</p><p>Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher, Lifted By Meta and Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-29 04:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth</li><li>Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue</li><li>GDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter</li><li>Indexes close: S&amp;P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%</li></ul><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy&#39;s contraction in the first quarter.</p><p>The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.</p><p>Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.</p><p>Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world&#39;s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.</p><p>In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday&#39;s strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.</p><p>&#34;When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,&#34; said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America&#39;s underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,&#34; Hill said.</p><p>The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.</p><p>The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.</p><p>Unofficially, S&amp;P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.</p><p>The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.</p><p>Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&amp;P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p>Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.</p><p>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.</p><p>Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.</p><p>Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","QCOM":"高通","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","CAT":"卡特彼勒","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AMGN":"安进","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4576":"AR","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4579":"人工智能",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4573":"虚拟现实","AAPL":"苹果","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2231363422","content_text":"Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growthQualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenueGDP fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarterIndexes close: S&P 500 +2.47%, Nasdaq +3.06%, Dow +1.85%(Reuters) - Wall Street ended sharply higher on Thursday after a strong quarterly report from Meta Platforms lifted beaten down technology and growth stocks and offset worries about the U.S. economy's contraction in the first quarter.The Facebook parent (FB.O)surged 17.6% after the social network reported a larger-than-expected profit and rebounded from a drop in users.Communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) were among the strongest of 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, jumping 4.04% and 3.89%, respectively.Apple Inc (AAPL.O), the world's most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) both rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.In extended trade, Amazon tumbled about 10% after the company forecast current-quarter sales below Wall Street estimates.Investors have been dumping high growth stocks for weeks, due to worries about inflation, rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. Even with Thursday's strong gain, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down almost 10% in the month of April, on track for its deepest one-month decline since March 2020.The S&P 500 has gained or lost 2% or more in a day some 32 times so far in 2022, compared to 24 such days in all of 2021.\"When interest rates, the inflation path and what the Fed is going to do are so volatile, it just means that pricing every other asset is that much more difficult,\" said Zach Hill, head of Portfolio Strategy at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.\"We've done a lot of earnings data over the last couple days and weeks and by and large, outside of a few particular cases, corporate America's underlying fundamentals have been relatively strong,\" Hill said.The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter as COVID-19 cases surged again, and government pandemic relief money dropped.The first decrease in gross domestic product since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago, reported by the Commerce Department, was mostly driven by a wider trade deficit as imports surged, and a slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation.Unofficially, S&P 500 climbed 2.47% to end the session at 4,287.50 points.The Nasdaq gained 3.06% to 12,871.53 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.85% to 33,916.39 points.Overall, first-quarter earnings have been better than expected, with 81% of the 237 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far beating Wall Street expectations. Typically, only 66% of companies beat estimates, according to Refinitiv data.Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O)surged 9.7% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above analyst expectations.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged 5.6% in its biggest one-day gain in over a year.Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N)fell 0.7% after it warned that profit margins in the current quarter were likely to be pressured from surging costs.Among other movers, Amgen Inc (AMGN.O)fell 4.3% after the drugmaker said the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is seeking additional back taxes of $5.1 billion.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.3 billion shares, compared with an 11.8 billion average over the last 20 trading days.Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a 2.6-to-one ratio.The S&P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and 44 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 25 new highs and 672 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9909750814,"gmtCreate":1658930754639,"gmtModify":1676536230341,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9909750814","repostId":"2254337537","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2254337537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658926249,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2254337537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-27 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2254337537","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","content":"<div>\n<p>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"redbox_crawler","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-27 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4566":"资本集团","SAP":"SAP SE","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","NYSE":"纽交所","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3861225-shopify-stock-sink-as-losses-persist-amid-pandemic-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2254337537","content_text":"Shopify stock sink as losses persist, forecast disappoints (NYSE:SHOP)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965798133,"gmtCreate":1670022110622,"gmtModify":1676538288818,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965798133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965598170,"gmtCreate":1669977355990,"gmtModify":1676538281786,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nivr","listText":"Nivr","text":"Nivr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965598170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965315207,"gmtCreate":1669893932910,"gmtModify":1676538264793,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965315207","repostId":"9963969638","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9963969638,"gmtCreate":1668567458425,"gmtModify":1677745765888,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Join Tiger's Football Season, share the prizes worth up to US$200,000","htmlText":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world!&nbsp;While you enjoy your football carnival, don't forget to join in Tiger's Football Season on Tiger Trade App, and share the prizes worth up to USD 200,000!Play the \"Perfect Goals\" game with us, and feel the score moment by only pressing the button.Keep completing the daily tasks and play the game, win more points to redeem stock vouchers worth up to USD 2,000 or AFF tickets, and the top prize - the free journey of watching the AFF finals!You can also predict a football match of the World Cup or AFF Championship, and cheer for your home team.Besides, you may obtain the Tiger Football Card by participating in the campaign every day.Goalke","listText":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world!&nbsp;While you enjoy your football carnival, don't forget to join in Tiger's Football Season on Tiger Trade App, and share the prizes worth up to USD 200,000!Play the \"Perfect Goals\" game with us, and feel the score moment by only pressing the button.Keep completing the daily tasks and play the game, win more points to redeem stock vouchers worth up to USD 2,000 or AFF tickets, and the top prize - the free journey of watching the AFF finals!You can also predict a football match of the World Cup or AFF Championship, and cheer for your home team.Besides, you may obtain the Tiger Football Card by participating in the campaign every day.Goalke","text":"This year is the year of football, the Qatar World Cup, AFF championship, make the following days a big carnival for football fans all around the world! While you enjoy your football carnival, don't forget to join in Tiger's Football Season on Tiger Trade App, and share the prizes worth up to USD 200,000!Play the \"Perfect Goals\" game with us, and feel the score moment by only pressing the button.Keep completing the daily tasks and play the game, win more points to redeem stock vouchers worth up to USD 2,000 or AFF tickets, and the top prize - the free journey of watching the AFF finals!You can also predict a football match of the World Cup or AFF Championship, and cheer for your home team.Besides, you may obtain the Tiger Football Card by participating in the campaign every day.Goalke","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8c9b6ab16214df413c77708cf5957bf","width":"404","height":"707"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6f0ddb54cc9e55b9b9b59a0c9908bfb5","width":"358","height":"471"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d9cc4adf57a9972e62e94d321ecc6734","width":"402","height":"712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963969638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932727664,"gmtCreate":1662995143658,"gmtModify":1676537179034,"author":{"id":"3570708756242738","authorId":"3570708756242738","name":"Iverader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c899aaba6c91a26812e267f3fa3789be","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570708756242738","authorIdStr":"3570708756242738"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932727664","repostId":"9932886111","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9932886111,"gmtCreate":1662929600234,"gmtModify":1676537162484,"author":{"id":"3583230105554843","authorId":"3583230105554843","name":"Keeley","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c720283f6ce0951b275b726005d199ad","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583230105554843","authorIdStr":"3583230105554843"},"themes":[],"title":"Weekly Stocks Technical Analysis #AMD #PLTR #XPEV [#ANALYSIS WITH @MillionaireTiger]","htmlText":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","listText":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>&nbsp;Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","text":"P.S. I'm at overseas right now, will try to reply all queries if I can!Find out more about me here (YouTube/Discord/Telegram): https://www.linktr.ee/keeleytanIf you find my post helpful, I’ll be grateful and appreciate it if you could leave me a like on this post, and follow me for future posts like this.Let me know in the comments if you agree and what you think. I'm thinking of trying out to provide free signal services on discord. If you're interested, join us there!$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ Price played out according to what was expected last week. Right now, if this is a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we should see price breaking market structure to the upside. We also do see volume increasing on the last down move, unable to p","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f44b6a5b02abbb0be0ce79b6495289d6","width":"632","height":"365"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/11bf6d3b8e1c7a5701d5d7f07a54439f","width":"632","height":"365"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47cd202b01158d237cbcf4b9dec41c6d","width":"632","height":"365"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932886111","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":2125,"gmtBegin":1662929600234,"gmtEnd":1663534380877,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"Do you agree?","choices":[{"id":8395,"sort":1,"name":"Yes","userSize":8,"voted":false},{"id":8396,"sort":2,"name":"No","userSize":1,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}