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2022-03-23

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Pre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman "joined the army of retail investors"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly

2022-03-17

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Disaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off

2021-07-06

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2021-06-30

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Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now

2021-06-29

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2021-06-20

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Answering the great inflation question of our time

2021-06-20

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20:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190882571","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，提前实现扭亏为盈目标，水滴涨超13%；工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%；WSB概念股大涨，游戏驿站涨超11%；欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，美油、布油均涨超3%。3月23日，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Up more than 13%; The industrial hemp sector rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%; WSB concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up more than 11%; Major European stock indexes generally weakened, with U.S. oil and Brent oil both rising more than 3%.</b>On March 23, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.35%, S&P 500 falling 0.45%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.75%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604f19a2cfc4711b8837d43c371dad99\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>MARKET NEWS</b></p><p><b>A consortium including Elliott is rumored to be considering raising its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Purchase price</b></p><p>U.S. hedge funds Elliott Investment Management and Brookfield Asset Management are considering raising their<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Quotation, previously this company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The company rejected the previous offer. The bid under discussion will be higher than the previous offer of $25.40, the person said. Details of a higher offer are not immediately available, and talks are still likely to break down. (Nielsen rose more than 3% before the market)</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Acquisition of financial start-up Credit Kudos may foreshadow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Will enter the \"buy now, pay later\" market</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Apple has acquired Credit Kudos, a British financial start-up that can use open banking technology to provide precisely adjusted credit scores, allowing lenders to provide credit loans to borrowers who may have previously been rejected or ignored. The deal closed last week at a valuation of $150 million, sources said. The acquisition will allow Apple to expand the acceptance of its credit cards to overlooked demographics and could signal Apple's entry into the \"buy now, pay later\" market. Neither Apple nor Credit Kudos have commented on this yet.</p><p><b>Italy vs<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The support ratio of chip investment is as high as 40%</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Italy is ready to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>(INTC.US) provides financial support at a rate of 40% of the total chip investment. These investment projects include the establishment of chip packaging and assembly plants. Italy will initially provide financial support worth US $5 billion, and related support funds will increase over time.</p><p><b>Musk: Starship may make its first orbital test flight in May</b></p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk revealed that SpaceX will manufacture 39 engines that can be used for flight next month and integrate them in another month. Therefore, the new generation of giant launch vehicle \"Starship\" developed by SpaceX is expected to conduct orbital flight test in May. Musk said on social media that SpaceX's planned launch mass this year accounts for about 65% of global launches. Incremental demand could raise that figure to around 70%, but those numbers do not include Starship launches. A rough calculation is 50 launches this year, each with 16 tons, that is, a total of 800 tons.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>WSB concept stocks rose before the market,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Rose more than 11%,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up nearly 5%. WSB concept stocks are going to be popular again?<span style=\"color:rgba(206,41,28,1);\"><b>Not only retail investors are pouring in, but the chairman of GameStop is also buying!</b></span>According to SEC filings, the chairman<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CONN\">Cohen</a>RC Ventures, an investment firm, bought 100,000 shares of GameStop on Tuesday at prices ranging from $96.81 to $108.82.</p><p>The industrial hemp sector of U.S. stocks rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It rose more than 7%, Sundial Grower rose more than 6%, and Canopy Growth rose more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>It rose more than 13% before the market. The company's net profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 was 5.91 million yuan, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 4% before the market, and revenue in 2021 will increase by 119% year-on-year to 4.26 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the Q2 performance guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and will repurchase up to 0.58% of the shares with a quota of 100 billion yen.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes generally weakened. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.89%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.07%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.65%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc44edb20d61baa43400d9f22bb0fa9\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p><b>International oil prices rose, with U.S. oil reporting at $112.72/barrel, an intraday decrease of 3.16%; Brent oil is now trading at $119.20/barrel, an intraday increase of 3.24%.</b></p><p>International oil prices remain firm, market concerns about global supply constraints caused by sanctions on Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, have intensified, and Kazakhstan's exports may show signs of disruption. A plunge in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, also fueled supply concerns.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p><b>Spot gold rose 0.43% during the day to $1,929.80 an ounce.</b></p><p>Spot gold regained strength as investors awaited the announcement of new sanctions against Russia during U.S. President Joe Biden's European trip. In addition, the negative effect of the Fed's aggressive stance released this week has subsided, and investors are worried about the adverse impact that the Fed's aggressive water withdrawal may have on economic growth and employment.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-23 20:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Up more than 13%; The industrial hemp sector rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%; WSB concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up more than 11%; Major European stock indexes generally weakened, with U.S. oil and Brent oil both rising more than 3%.</b>On March 23, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.35%, S&P 500 falling 0.45%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.75%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604f19a2cfc4711b8837d43c371dad99\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>MARKET NEWS</b></p><p><b>A consortium including Elliott is rumored to be considering raising its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Purchase price</b></p><p>U.S. hedge funds Elliott Investment Management and Brookfield Asset Management are considering raising their<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Quotation, previously this company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The company rejected the previous offer. The bid under discussion will be higher than the previous offer of $25.40, the person said. Details of a higher offer are not immediately available, and talks are still likely to break down. (Nielsen rose more than 3% before the market)</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Acquisition of financial start-up Credit Kudos may foreshadow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Will enter the \"buy now, pay later\" market</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Apple has acquired Credit Kudos, a British financial start-up that can use open banking technology to provide precisely adjusted credit scores, allowing lenders to provide credit loans to borrowers who may have previously been rejected or ignored. The deal closed last week at a valuation of $150 million, sources said. The acquisition will allow Apple to expand the acceptance of its credit cards to overlooked demographics and could signal Apple's entry into the \"buy now, pay later\" market. Neither Apple nor Credit Kudos have commented on this yet.</p><p><b>Italy vs<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The support ratio of chip investment is as high as 40%</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Italy is ready to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>(INTC.US) provides financial support at a rate of 40% of the total chip investment. These investment projects include the establishment of chip packaging and assembly plants. Italy will initially provide financial support worth US $5 billion, and related support funds will increase over time.</p><p><b>Musk: Starship may make its first orbital test flight in May</b></p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk revealed that SpaceX will manufacture 39 engines that can be used for flight next month and integrate them in another month. Therefore, the new generation of giant launch vehicle \"Starship\" developed by SpaceX is expected to conduct orbital flight test in May. Musk said on social media that SpaceX's planned launch mass this year accounts for about 65% of global launches. Incremental demand could raise that figure to around 70%, but those numbers do not include Starship launches. A rough calculation is 50 launches this year, each with 16 tons, that is, a total of 800 tons.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>WSB concept stocks rose before the market,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Rose more than 11%,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up nearly 5%. WSB concept stocks are going to be popular again?<span style=\"color:rgba(206,41,28,1);\"><b>Not only retail investors are pouring in, but the chairman of GameStop is also buying!</b></span>According to SEC filings, the chairman<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CONN\">Cohen</a>RC Ventures, an investment firm, bought 100,000 shares of GameStop on Tuesday at prices ranging from $96.81 to $108.82.</p><p>The industrial hemp sector of U.S. stocks rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It rose more than 7%, Sundial Grower rose more than 6%, and Canopy Growth rose more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>It rose more than 13% before the market. The company's net profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 was 5.91 million yuan, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 4% before the market, and revenue in 2021 will increase by 119% year-on-year to 4.26 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the Q2 performance guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and will repurchase up to 0.58% of the shares with a quota of 100 billion yen.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes generally weakened. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.89%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.07%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.65%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc44edb20d61baa43400d9f22bb0fa9\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p><b>International oil prices rose, with U.S. oil reporting at $112.72/barrel, an intraday decrease of 3.16%; Brent oil is now trading at $119.20/barrel, an intraday increase of 3.24%.</b></p><p>International oil prices remain firm, market concerns about global supply constraints caused by sanctions on Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, have intensified, and Kazakhstan's exports may show signs of disruption. A plunge in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, also fueled supply concerns.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p><b>Spot gold rose 0.43% during the day to $1,929.80 an ounce.</b></p><p>Spot gold regained strength as investors awaited the announcement of new sanctions against Russia during U.S. President Joe Biden's European trip. In addition, the negative effect of the Fed's aggressive stance released this week has subsided, and investors are worried about the adverse impact that the Fed's aggressive water withdrawal may have on economic growth and employment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","KOSS":"高斯电子","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站","ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","ADBE":"Adobe",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190882571","content_text":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，提前实现扭亏为盈目标，水滴涨超13%；工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%；WSB概念股大涨，游戏驿站涨超11%；欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，美油、布油均涨超3%。3月23日，美股股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.35%，标普500指数跌0.45%，纳指期货跌0.75%。市场消息传包括Elliott在内的财团考虑提高对尼尔森收购价据知情人士透露，美国对冲基金Elliott Investment Management和Brookfield Asset Management正在考虑提高对尼尔森的报价，此前这家信息服务公司拒绝了之前的报价。该知情人士表示，正在讨论的出价将高于上次的报价25.40美元。目前还无法立即了解更高报价的细节，谈判仍有可能破裂。（尼尔森盘前涨超3%）苹果收购金融初创企业Credit Kudos 或预示苹果将进入“先买后付”市场据外媒报道，苹果公司已收购英国金融初创企业Credit Kudos，该公司可以使用开放的银行技术来提供精确调整的信用评分，使贷款机构能够向以前可能被拒绝或忽视的借款人提供信贷款。消息人士表示，该交易于上周以1.5亿美元的估值完成。此次收购将使苹果能够将其信用卡的接受范围扩大到被忽视的人群，并可能预示着苹果将进入“先买后付”的市场。苹果和Credit Kudos都尚未对此发表评论。意大利对英特尔芯片投资的扶持比例高达40%据外媒报道，意大利已准备好为英特尔(INTC.US)在芯片总投资上以40%的比例提供资金支持，这些投资项目包括建立芯片封装和组装厂，意大利最开始将提供价值50亿美元的资金支持，并且相关的扶持资金会随着时间的推移而增加。马斯克：星舰5月或首次轨道试飞SpaceX CEO马斯克透露，SpaceX下月将制造39部可用于飞行的引擎，再用一个月时间整合，因此其研发的新一代巨型运载火箭“星舰”(Starship)有望在5月进行轨道飞行测试。马斯克在社交媒体上表示，SpaceX计划于今年的发射质量占全球发射的65%左右。增量需求可能会将这个数字提高到70%左右，但这些数字不包括星舰的发射。粗略计算是今年发射50次，每次16吨，即合共800吨。盘前行情WSB概念股盘前上涨，游戏驿站涨超11%，高斯电子涨超7%，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近5%。WSB概念股又要火？不只散户涌入，游戏驿站董事长也在买！根据SEC提交的文件，董事长科恩的投资公司RC Ventures周二以96.81美元至108.82美元的价格购买了游戏驿站10万股股票。美股工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%，奥罗拉大麻公司涨超7%，Sundial Grower涨超6%，Canopy Growth涨超4%。水滴盘前涨超13%，公司2021财年第四季度净利润591万元，提前实现扭亏为盈目标。BOSS直聘盘前涨超4%，2021年营收同比增119%至42.6亿元。Adobe盘前跌超3%，Q2业绩指引不及预期。丰田汽车盘前涨近3%，将以1000亿日元的额度回购至多0.58%的股份。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.89%，英国富时100涨0.07%，法国CAC40跌0.65%。来源：英为财情Investing.com原油国际油价上涨，美油报112.72美元/桶，日内跌幅3.16%；布油现报119.20美元/桶，日内涨幅3.24%。国际油价持坚，市场对全球第二大石油出口国俄罗斯遭受制裁导致全球供应紧张的担忧加剧，并且哈萨克斯坦出口可能存在受干扰迹象。全球最大石油消费国美国的原油库存暴跌，也加剧了供应担忧。黄金现货黄金日内涨0.43%，报1929.80美元/盎司。现货黄金重新走强，投资者等待美国总统拜登欧洲之行期间公布对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。此外，美联储本周释放激进立场带来的利空效应消退，投资者担心美联储激进收水可能给经济增长和就业带来的不利影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"GME":0.9,"KOSS":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"ACB":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035327931,"gmtCreate":1647521401544,"gmtModify":1676534239739,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read&nbsp;","listText":"Read&nbsp;","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035327931","repostId":"1180910277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180910277","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1647511742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180910277?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 18:09","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Disaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180910277","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"随着俄乌冲突爆发，西方国家展开了对俄罗斯的经济制裁。俄罗斯一半的外汇储备和黄金被冻结，俄罗斯经济遭遇重创。在一个多月的时间内，俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值。美元兑卢布从2月份的77.37一度大幅上涨至121.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Western countries launched economic sanctions against Russia. Half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and gold were frozen, and the Russian economy suffered heavy losses.</p><p>In more than a month, the Russian ruble depreciated sharply. The USD/Ruble once rose sharply from 77.37 in February to 121.2, an increase of 56.6%! The ruble was once cut in half and is currently hovering around 105.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf1b30247af890f746d2b1ab694913\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>USD/RUB chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Russia may intend to sell gold reserves</b></p><p>There are rumors in the market that Russia is considering selling its gold reserves to tide over the storm.</p><p>According to foreign media, although European and American countries have decided to freeze the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank, since all the gold held by the Russian central bank is stored in their own territory, the Russian central bank can still use this valuable asset.</p><p>Russia has been increasing its gold holdings since 2000. According to data from the World Gold Council, Russia's gold reserves are as high as nearly 2,300 tons, ranking fifth in the world. Even at the price of $1,900/oz, its value exceeds $150 billion!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd0cb5f35c3fb3a36846775d261fc07\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Global Gold Reserves, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Hard to successfully sell</b></p><p>It is very difficult to get rid of such a huge gold reserve in a short time. Moreover, European and American countries have also thought of the possibility of Russia selling gold. Traders, commercial banks and even countries that want to buy Russian gold may face severe sanctions.</p><p>Given that Russia has been kicked out of the SWIFT dollar settlement system, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and CME group have also suspended the certification of all Russian gold refineries, amounting to banning the country's newly minted gold bars from entering the world's two largest markets. The scale of other markets is limited, and it is difficult to eat such huge gold reserves. Even small-scale sales will be difficult to bypass SWIFT to remit money to Russia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e88c7cc4c0990e5f11aabacaa48f505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The impact of central bank collection</b></p><p>In fact, 80% of the world's gold is in private circulation, and the central bank's gold reserves only account for about 20% of all gold. Normally, the impact of the central bank's buying and selling of gold on the price of gold is limited. However, the central bank's behavior of selling gold can easily cause panic in the gold market, causing gold prices to plummet in a short period of time.</p><p>The most obvious example is the 2013 sell-off of gold reserves in Cyprus. At that time, Cyprus was in a deep debt crisis, and the country was about to go bankrupt. There were rumors in the market that the central bank of the country was about to sell gold reserves in exchange for funds and reduce bankruptcy costs.</p><p>Immediately, the price of gold fell sharply for two consecutive days, from US $1,560 to US $1,360, and fell by US $200 in two days, with a range of 12.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f527acaa03dc4471790785e4b4f30398\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gold price action amid Cyprus gold sell-off, Source: Investing.com</p><p>You must know that Cyprus's gold reserves at that time were only about 10 tons, which was only worth about 400 million euros at that time. It is not in the same order of magnitude as Russia's 2,300 tons of gold reserves. The market is mainly worried that once Cyprus does sell gold, it may trigger other heavily indebted European countries to follow suit, thus triggering a sell-off by countries with larger gold reserves. In fact, until the end, Cyprus didn't really sell gold.</p><p>Therefore, regardless of whether Russia can actually sell its gold reserves, once it sends a signal to sell, the price of gold may face the risk of plummeting.</p><p>Of course, Russia actually has another option. It can sell gold domestically and buy rubles. If the transaction is completed at a fixed price, it will be tantamount to the internal gold standard, which can alleviate the problem of ruble depreciation to a certain extent.</p><p>Usually, a country will not sell its gold reserves on a large scale unless it is a last resort. Although Russia faces severe sanctions from Western countries, it has not yet reached the last step of the end of the road, and there is also good news in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations; However, if Russia says it will sell gold, the blow to gold prices will be huge.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 18:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Western countries launched economic sanctions against Russia. Half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and gold were frozen, and the Russian economy suffered heavy losses.</p><p>In more than a month, the Russian ruble depreciated sharply. The USD/Ruble once rose sharply from 77.37 in February to 121.2, an increase of 56.6%! The ruble was once cut in half and is currently hovering around 105.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf1b30247af890f746d2b1ab694913\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>USD/RUB chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Russia may intend to sell gold reserves</b></p><p>There are rumors in the market that Russia is considering selling its gold reserves to tide over the storm.</p><p>According to foreign media, although European and American countries have decided to freeze the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank, since all the gold held by the Russian central bank is stored in their own territory, the Russian central bank can still use this valuable asset.</p><p>Russia has been increasing its gold holdings since 2000. According to data from the World Gold Council, Russia's gold reserves are as high as nearly 2,300 tons, ranking fifth in the world. Even at the price of $1,900/oz, its value exceeds $150 billion!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd0cb5f35c3fb3a36846775d261fc07\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Global Gold Reserves, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Hard to successfully sell</b></p><p>It is very difficult to get rid of such a huge gold reserve in a short time. Moreover, European and American countries have also thought of the possibility of Russia selling gold. Traders, commercial banks and even countries that want to buy Russian gold may face severe sanctions.</p><p>Given that Russia has been kicked out of the SWIFT dollar settlement system, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and CME group have also suspended the certification of all Russian gold refineries, amounting to banning the country's newly minted gold bars from entering the world's two largest markets. The scale of other markets is limited, and it is difficult to eat such huge gold reserves. Even small-scale sales will be difficult to bypass SWIFT to remit money to Russia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e88c7cc4c0990e5f11aabacaa48f505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The impact of central bank collection</b></p><p>In fact, 80% of the world's gold is in private circulation, and the central bank's gold reserves only account for about 20% of all gold. Normally, the impact of the central bank's buying and selling of gold on the price of gold is limited. However, the central bank's behavior of selling gold can easily cause panic in the gold market, causing gold prices to plummet in a short period of time.</p><p>The most obvious example is the 2013 sell-off of gold reserves in Cyprus. At that time, Cyprus was in a deep debt crisis, and the country was about to go bankrupt. There were rumors in the market that the central bank of the country was about to sell gold reserves in exchange for funds and reduce bankruptcy costs.</p><p>Immediately, the price of gold fell sharply for two consecutive days, from US $1,560 to US $1,360, and fell by US $200 in two days, with a range of 12.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f527acaa03dc4471790785e4b4f30398\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gold price action amid Cyprus gold sell-off, Source: Investing.com</p><p>You must know that Cyprus's gold reserves at that time were only about 10 tons, which was only worth about 400 million euros at that time. It is not in the same order of magnitude as Russia's 2,300 tons of gold reserves. The market is mainly worried that once Cyprus does sell gold, it may trigger other heavily indebted European countries to follow suit, thus triggering a sell-off by countries with larger gold reserves. In fact, until the end, Cyprus didn't really sell gold.</p><p>Therefore, regardless of whether Russia can actually sell its gold reserves, once it sends a signal to sell, the price of gold may face the risk of plummeting.</p><p>Of course, Russia actually has another option. It can sell gold domestically and buy rubles. If the transaction is completed at a fixed price, it will be tantamount to the internal gold standard, which can alleviate the problem of ruble depreciation to a certain extent.</p><p>Usually, a country will not sell its gold reserves on a large scale unless it is a last resort. Although Russia faces severe sanctions from Western countries, it has not yet reached the last step of the end of the road, and there is also good news in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations; However, if Russia says it will sell gold, the blow to gold prices will be huge.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c4b7f0fed80012c8b751d783a3376","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180910277","content_text":"随着俄乌冲突爆发，西方国家展开了对俄罗斯的经济制裁。俄罗斯一半的外汇储备和黄金被冻结，俄罗斯经济遭遇重创。在一个多月的时间内，俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值。美元兑卢布从2月份的77.37一度大幅上涨至121.2，涨幅达56.6%！卢布一度遭到腰斩，目前在105附近徘徊。美元/卢布走势图，来源：Investing.com俄罗斯或打算出售黄金储备市场有传言称，俄罗斯正考虑出售黄金储备来度过难关。报外媒道称，虽然欧美国家决定冻结俄罗斯央行的外汇资产，但由于俄罗斯央行持有的黄金悉数存放在本国境内，所以俄罗斯央行还可以动用这笔宝贵的资产。从2000年以后，俄罗斯就一直在增持黄金。根据世界黄金协会的数据显示，俄罗斯的黄金储备高达将近2300吨，排名全球第五位。即使按照1900美元/盎司的价格来算的话，其价值也超过了1500亿美元！全球黄金储备，来源：Investing.com难以成功出售如此庞大的黄金储备想要在短时间内脱手是非常困难的。而且欧美国家也想到了俄罗斯出售黄金的可能性。想要购买俄罗斯黄金的贸易商、商业银行甚至国家都有可能面临严苛的制裁。鉴于俄罗斯已被踢出SWIFT美元结算系统，伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）和芝商所还暂停了所有俄罗斯黄金精炼厂的认证，相当于禁止该国新铸造的金条进入世界两大市场。而其他市场的规模有限，很难吃下如此庞大的黄金储备。即使小规模的出售也很难绕开SWIFT将前汇给俄罗斯。央行收金的影响事实上，全球黄金的80%是在民间流通的，央行的黄金储备只占所有黄金的20%左右。正常来讲央行买卖黄金对金价的影响是有限的。但是央行抛售黄金这一行为非常容易引起黄金市场的恐慌情绪，令金价在短时间内暴跌。最明显的一个例子就是2013年塞浦路斯抛售黄金储备事件。当时塞浦路斯深陷债务危机，眼看国家即将破产，市场传言该国央行即将出售黄金储备以换取资金，并且减少破产费用。随即，金价连续两日大幅下跌，从1560美元跌至1360美元，两日下跌跌200美元，幅达12.8%。塞浦路斯抛售黄金事件中金价走势，来源：Investing.com要知道当时塞浦路斯的黄金储备仅有10吨左右，当时仅价值4亿欧元左右。与俄罗斯2300吨的黄金储备完全不在一个量级上面。市场主要担心塞浦路斯一旦真的抛售黄金，可能会引发其他欧洲重债国家的效仿，从而引发更大黄金储备国的抛售。事实上，一直到最后塞浦路斯也并未真正抛售黄金。所以，不管俄罗斯能否真的出售黄金储备，一旦他发出抛售的信号，金价就可能面临暴跌的风险。当然，俄罗斯其实还有一种选择，它可以在国内出售黄金并买入卢布。如果以固定价格完成交易，那将无异于内部黄金本位制，一定程度上可以缓解卢布贬值的问题。通常，一个国家在不到万不得已的情况下是不会大规模抛售黄金储备的，虽然俄罗斯面临西方国家的严厉制裁，但目前还没有到穷途末路的最后一步，并且俄乌谈判也出现了利好消息；但是，若俄罗斯一旦表示将出售黄金，那对于金价的打击将是巨大的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157895090,"gmtCreate":1625576739510,"gmtModify":1703744105357,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157895090","repostId":"2149368527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153981174,"gmtCreate":1625004864398,"gmtModify":1703849755690,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153981174","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180006824?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p>\n<p>That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p>\n<p>To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p>\n<p>I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p>\n<p>One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p>\n<p>This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p>\n<p>As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p>\n<p><b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p>\n<p>What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p>\n<p>Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p>\n<p>Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p>\n<p>My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p>\n<p>Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 23:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159790744,"gmtCreate":1624979019088,"gmtModify":1703849423041,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159790744","repostId":"2147343850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164620023,"gmtCreate":1624201882362,"gmtModify":1703830558935,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good&nbsp;","listText":"good&nbsp;","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164620023","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164661493,"gmtCreate":1624201423012,"gmtModify":1703830551279,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164661493","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":164620023,"gmtCreate":1624201882362,"gmtModify":1703830558935,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good&nbsp;","listText":"good&nbsp;","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164620023","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164661493,"gmtCreate":1624201423012,"gmtModify":1703830551279,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164661493","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157895090,"gmtCreate":1625576739510,"gmtModify":1703744105357,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157895090","repostId":"2149368527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153981174,"gmtCreate":1625004864398,"gmtModify":1703849755690,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153981174","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180006824?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p>\n<p>That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p>\n<p>To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p>\n<p>I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p>\n<p>One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p>\n<p>This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p>\n<p>As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p>\n<p><b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p>\n<p>What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p>\n<p>Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p>\n<p>Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p>\n<p>My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p>\n<p>Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 23:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":399654122455112,"gmtCreate":1738597101479,"gmtModify":1738597105737,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b798923f70d548457392b7ba87af84be"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/399654122455112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159790744,"gmtCreate":1624979019088,"gmtModify":1703849423041,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159790744","repostId":"2147343850","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037196398,"gmtCreate":1648045811900,"gmtModify":1676534296684,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read&nbsp;","listText":"Read&nbsp;","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037196398","repostId":"1190882571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190882571","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648038188,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190882571?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-23 20:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190882571","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，提前实现扭亏为盈目标，水滴涨超13%；工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%；WSB概念股大涨，游戏驿站涨超11%；欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，美油、布油均涨超3%。3月23日，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Up more than 13%; The industrial hemp sector rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%; WSB concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up more than 11%; Major European stock indexes generally weakened, with U.S. oil and Brent oil both rising more than 3%.</b>On March 23, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.35%, S&P 500 falling 0.45%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.75%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604f19a2cfc4711b8837d43c371dad99\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>MARKET NEWS</b></p><p><b>A consortium including Elliott is rumored to be considering raising its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Purchase price</b></p><p>U.S. hedge funds Elliott Investment Management and Brookfield Asset Management are considering raising their<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Quotation, previously this company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The company rejected the previous offer. The bid under discussion will be higher than the previous offer of $25.40, the person said. Details of a higher offer are not immediately available, and talks are still likely to break down. (Nielsen rose more than 3% before the market)</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Acquisition of financial start-up Credit Kudos may foreshadow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Will enter the \"buy now, pay later\" market</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Apple has acquired Credit Kudos, a British financial start-up that can use open banking technology to provide precisely adjusted credit scores, allowing lenders to provide credit loans to borrowers who may have previously been rejected or ignored. The deal closed last week at a valuation of $150 million, sources said. The acquisition will allow Apple to expand the acceptance of its credit cards to overlooked demographics and could signal Apple's entry into the \"buy now, pay later\" market. Neither Apple nor Credit Kudos have commented on this yet.</p><p><b>Italy vs<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The support ratio of chip investment is as high as 40%</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Italy is ready to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>(INTC.US) provides financial support at a rate of 40% of the total chip investment. These investment projects include the establishment of chip packaging and assembly plants. Italy will initially provide financial support worth US $5 billion, and related support funds will increase over time.</p><p><b>Musk: Starship may make its first orbital test flight in May</b></p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk revealed that SpaceX will manufacture 39 engines that can be used for flight next month and integrate them in another month. Therefore, the new generation of giant launch vehicle \"Starship\" developed by SpaceX is expected to conduct orbital flight test in May. Musk said on social media that SpaceX's planned launch mass this year accounts for about 65% of global launches. Incremental demand could raise that figure to around 70%, but those numbers do not include Starship launches. A rough calculation is 50 launches this year, each with 16 tons, that is, a total of 800 tons.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>WSB concept stocks rose before the market,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Rose more than 11%,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up nearly 5%. WSB concept stocks are going to be popular again?<span style=\"color:rgba(206,41,28,1);\"><b>Not only retail investors are pouring in, but the chairman of GameStop is also buying!</b></span>According to SEC filings, the chairman<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CONN\">Cohen</a>RC Ventures, an investment firm, bought 100,000 shares of GameStop on Tuesday at prices ranging from $96.81 to $108.82.</p><p>The industrial hemp sector of U.S. stocks rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It rose more than 7%, Sundial Grower rose more than 6%, and Canopy Growth rose more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>It rose more than 13% before the market. The company's net profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 was 5.91 million yuan, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 4% before the market, and revenue in 2021 will increase by 119% year-on-year to 4.26 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the Q2 performance guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and will repurchase up to 0.58% of the shares with a quota of 100 billion yen.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes generally weakened. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.89%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.07%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.65%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc44edb20d61baa43400d9f22bb0fa9\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p><b>International oil prices rose, with U.S. oil reporting at $112.72/barrel, an intraday decrease of 3.16%; Brent oil is now trading at $119.20/barrel, an intraday increase of 3.24%.</b></p><p>International oil prices remain firm, market concerns about global supply constraints caused by sanctions on Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, have intensified, and Kazakhstan's exports may show signs of disruption. A plunge in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, also fueled supply concerns.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p><b>Spot gold rose 0.43% during the day to $1,929.80 an ounce.</b></p><p>Spot gold regained strength as investors awaited the announcement of new sanctions against Russia during U.S. President Joe Biden's European trip. In addition, the negative effect of the Fed's aggressive stance released this week has subsided, and investors are worried about the adverse impact that the Fed's aggressive water withdrawal may have on economic growth and employment.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | Soared 11%, the chairman \"joined the army of retail investors\"! Cannabis stocks rise strongly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-23 20:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary: U.S. stock index futures fell, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>Up more than 13%; The industrial hemp sector rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%; WSB concept stocks soared,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Up more than 11%; Major European stock indexes generally weakened, with U.S. oil and Brent oil both rising more than 3%.</b>On March 23, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow futures falling 0.35%, S&P 500 falling 0.45%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.75%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604f19a2cfc4711b8837d43c371dad99\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>MARKET NEWS</b></p><p><b>A consortium including Elliott is rumored to be considering raising its<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Purchase price</b></p><p>U.S. hedge funds Elliott Investment Management and Brookfield Asset Management are considering raising their<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">Nelson</a>Quotation, previously this company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">Information services</a>The company rejected the previous offer. The bid under discussion will be higher than the previous offer of $25.40, the person said. Details of a higher offer are not immediately available, and talks are still likely to break down. (Nielsen rose more than 3% before the market)</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Acquisition of financial start-up Credit Kudos may foreshadow<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Will enter the \"buy now, pay later\" market</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Apple has acquired Credit Kudos, a British financial start-up that can use open banking technology to provide precisely adjusted credit scores, allowing lenders to provide credit loans to borrowers who may have previously been rejected or ignored. The deal closed last week at a valuation of $150 million, sources said. The acquisition will allow Apple to expand the acceptance of its credit cards to overlooked demographics and could signal Apple's entry into the \"buy now, pay later\" market. Neither Apple nor Credit Kudos have commented on this yet.</p><p><b>Italy vs<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The support ratio of chip investment is as high as 40%</b></p><p>According to foreign media reports, Italy is ready to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>(INTC.US) provides financial support at a rate of 40% of the total chip investment. These investment projects include the establishment of chip packaging and assembly plants. Italy will initially provide financial support worth US $5 billion, and related support funds will increase over time.</p><p><b>Musk: Starship may make its first orbital test flight in May</b></p><p>SpaceX CEO Musk revealed that SpaceX will manufacture 39 engines that can be used for flight next month and integrate them in another month. Therefore, the new generation of giant launch vehicle \"Starship\" developed by SpaceX is expected to conduct orbital flight test in May. Musk said on social media that SpaceX's planned launch mass this year accounts for about 65% of global launches. Incremental demand could raise that figure to around 70%, but those numbers do not include Starship launches. A rough calculation is 50 launches this year, each with 16 tons, that is, a total of 800 tons.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>WSB concept stocks rose before the market,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Rose more than 11%,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">Gaussian electron</a>Rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">3B Home</a>Up nearly 5%. WSB concept stocks are going to be popular again?<span style=\"color:rgba(206,41,28,1);\"><b>Not only retail investors are pouring in, but the chairman of GameStop is also buying!</b></span>According to SEC filings, the chairman<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CONN\">Cohen</a>RC Ventures, an investment firm, bought 100,000 shares of GameStop on Tuesday at prices ranging from $96.81 to $108.82.</p><p>The industrial hemp sector of U.S. stocks rose, with Tilray rising more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a>It rose more than 7%, Sundial Grower rose more than 6%, and Canopy Growth rose more than 4%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">Water droplets</a>It rose more than 13% before the market. The company's net profit in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021 was 5.91 million yuan, achieving the goal of turning losses into profits ahead of schedule.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">BOSS Direct Recruitment</a>It rose more than 4% before the market, and revenue in 2021 will increase by 119% year-on-year to 4.26 billion yuan.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the Q2 performance guidance fell short of expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">Toyota Motors</a>It rose nearly 3% before the market, and will repurchase up to 0.58% of the shares with a quota of 100 billion yen.</p><p><b>European Market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes generally weakened. As of press time, the German DAX30 index fell 0.89%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>It rose 0.07%, while France's CAC40 fell 0.65%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc44edb20d61baa43400d9f22bb0fa9\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p><b>International oil prices rose, with U.S. oil reporting at $112.72/barrel, an intraday decrease of 3.16%; Brent oil is now trading at $119.20/barrel, an intraday increase of 3.24%.</b></p><p>International oil prices remain firm, market concerns about global supply constraints caused by sanctions on Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, have intensified, and Kazakhstan's exports may show signs of disruption. A plunge in crude oil inventories in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, also fueled supply concerns.</p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p><b>Spot gold rose 0.43% during the day to $1,929.80 an ounce.</b></p><p>Spot gold regained strength as investors awaited the announcement of new sanctions against Russia during U.S. President Joe Biden's European trip. In addition, the negative effect of the Fed's aggressive stance released this week has subsided, and investors are worried about the adverse impact that the Fed's aggressive water withdrawal may have on economic growth and employment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".DJI":"道琼斯","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","KOSS":"高斯电子","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GME":"游戏驿站","ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","ADBE":"Adobe",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190882571","content_text":"摘要：美股股指期货下跌，提前实现扭亏为盈目标，水滴涨超13%；工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%；WSB概念股大涨，游戏驿站涨超11%；欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，美油、布油均涨超3%。3月23日，美股股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.35%，标普500指数跌0.45%，纳指期货跌0.75%。市场消息传包括Elliott在内的财团考虑提高对尼尔森收购价据知情人士透露，美国对冲基金Elliott Investment Management和Brookfield Asset Management正在考虑提高对尼尔森的报价，此前这家信息服务公司拒绝了之前的报价。该知情人士表示，正在讨论的出价将高于上次的报价25.40美元。目前还无法立即了解更高报价的细节，谈判仍有可能破裂。（尼尔森盘前涨超3%）苹果收购金融初创企业Credit Kudos 或预示苹果将进入“先买后付”市场据外媒报道，苹果公司已收购英国金融初创企业Credit Kudos，该公司可以使用开放的银行技术来提供精确调整的信用评分，使贷款机构能够向以前可能被拒绝或忽视的借款人提供信贷款。消息人士表示，该交易于上周以1.5亿美元的估值完成。此次收购将使苹果能够将其信用卡的接受范围扩大到被忽视的人群，并可能预示着苹果将进入“先买后付”的市场。苹果和Credit Kudos都尚未对此发表评论。意大利对英特尔芯片投资的扶持比例高达40%据外媒报道，意大利已准备好为英特尔(INTC.US)在芯片总投资上以40%的比例提供资金支持，这些投资项目包括建立芯片封装和组装厂，意大利最开始将提供价值50亿美元的资金支持，并且相关的扶持资金会随着时间的推移而增加。马斯克：星舰5月或首次轨道试飞SpaceX CEO马斯克透露，SpaceX下月将制造39部可用于飞行的引擎，再用一个月时间整合，因此其研发的新一代巨型运载火箭“星舰”(Starship)有望在5月进行轨道飞行测试。马斯克在社交媒体上表示，SpaceX计划于今年的发射质量占全球发射的65%左右。增量需求可能会将这个数字提高到70%左右，但这些数字不包括星舰的发射。粗略计算是今年发射50次，每次16吨，即合共800吨。盘前行情WSB概念股盘前上涨，游戏驿站涨超11%，高斯电子涨超7%，AMC院线涨超5%，3B家居涨近5%。WSB概念股又要火？不只散户涌入，游戏驿站董事长也在买！根据SEC提交的文件，董事长科恩的投资公司RC Ventures周二以96.81美元至108.82美元的价格购买了游戏驿站10万股股票。美股工业大麻板块走高，Tilray涨超10%，奥罗拉大麻公司涨超7%，Sundial Grower涨超6%，Canopy Growth涨超4%。水滴盘前涨超13%，公司2021财年第四季度净利润591万元，提前实现扭亏为盈目标。BOSS直聘盘前涨超4%，2021年营收同比增119%至42.6亿元。Adobe盘前跌超3%，Q2业绩指引不及预期。丰田汽车盘前涨近3%，将以1000亿日元的额度回购至多0.58%的股份。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指普遍走弱，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.89%，英国富时100涨0.07%，法国CAC40跌0.65%。来源：英为财情Investing.com原油国际油价上涨，美油报112.72美元/桶，日内跌幅3.16%；布油现报119.20美元/桶，日内涨幅3.24%。国际油价持坚，市场对全球第二大石油出口国俄罗斯遭受制裁导致全球供应紧张的担忧加剧，并且哈萨克斯坦出口可能存在受干扰迹象。全球最大石油消费国美国的原油库存暴跌，也加剧了供应担忧。黄金现货黄金日内涨0.43%，报1929.80美元/盎司。现货黄金重新走强，投资者等待美国总统拜登欧洲之行期间公布对俄罗斯的新制裁措施。此外，美联储本周释放激进立场带来的利空效应消退，投资者担心美联储激进收水可能给经济增长和就业带来的不利影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"GME":0.9,"KOSS":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"ACB":0.9,"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035327931,"gmtCreate":1647521401544,"gmtModify":1676534239739,"author":{"id":"3570851817701677","authorId":"3570851817701677","name":"SuChing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2000f4d895d6cd3566116222904381ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570851817701677","idStr":"3570851817701677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Read&nbsp;","listText":"Read&nbsp;","text":"Read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035327931","repostId":"1180910277","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180910277","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1647511742,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180910277?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-17 18:09","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Disaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180910277","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"随着俄乌冲突爆发，西方国家展开了对俄罗斯的经济制裁。俄罗斯一半的外汇储备和黄金被冻结，俄罗斯经济遭遇重创。在一个多月的时间内，俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值。美元兑卢布从2月份的77.37一度大幅上涨至121.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Western countries launched economic sanctions against Russia. Half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and gold were frozen, and the Russian economy suffered heavy losses.</p><p>In more than a month, the Russian ruble depreciated sharply. The USD/Ruble once rose sharply from 77.37 in February to 121.2, an increase of 56.6%! The ruble was once cut in half and is currently hovering around 105.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf1b30247af890f746d2b1ab694913\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>USD/RUB chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Russia may intend to sell gold reserves</b></p><p>There are rumors in the market that Russia is considering selling its gold reserves to tide over the storm.</p><p>According to foreign media, although European and American countries have decided to freeze the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank, since all the gold held by the Russian central bank is stored in their own territory, the Russian central bank can still use this valuable asset.</p><p>Russia has been increasing its gold holdings since 2000. According to data from the World Gold Council, Russia's gold reserves are as high as nearly 2,300 tons, ranking fifth in the world. Even at the price of $1,900/oz, its value exceeds $150 billion!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd0cb5f35c3fb3a36846775d261fc07\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Global Gold Reserves, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Hard to successfully sell</b></p><p>It is very difficult to get rid of such a huge gold reserve in a short time. Moreover, European and American countries have also thought of the possibility of Russia selling gold. Traders, commercial banks and even countries that want to buy Russian gold may face severe sanctions.</p><p>Given that Russia has been kicked out of the SWIFT dollar settlement system, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and CME group have also suspended the certification of all Russian gold refineries, amounting to banning the country's newly minted gold bars from entering the world's two largest markets. The scale of other markets is limited, and it is difficult to eat such huge gold reserves. Even small-scale sales will be difficult to bypass SWIFT to remit money to Russia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e88c7cc4c0990e5f11aabacaa48f505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The impact of central bank collection</b></p><p>In fact, 80% of the world's gold is in private circulation, and the central bank's gold reserves only account for about 20% of all gold. Normally, the impact of the central bank's buying and selling of gold on the price of gold is limited. However, the central bank's behavior of selling gold can easily cause panic in the gold market, causing gold prices to plummet in a short period of time.</p><p>The most obvious example is the 2013 sell-off of gold reserves in Cyprus. At that time, Cyprus was in a deep debt crisis, and the country was about to go bankrupt. There were rumors in the market that the central bank of the country was about to sell gold reserves in exchange for funds and reduce bankruptcy costs.</p><p>Immediately, the price of gold fell sharply for two consecutive days, from US $1,560 to US $1,360, and fell by US $200 in two days, with a range of 12.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f527acaa03dc4471790785e4b4f30398\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gold price action amid Cyprus gold sell-off, Source: Investing.com</p><p>You must know that Cyprus's gold reserves at that time were only about 10 tons, which was only worth about 400 million euros at that time. It is not in the same order of magnitude as Russia's 2,300 tons of gold reserves. The market is mainly worried that once Cyprus does sell gold, it may trigger other heavily indebted European countries to follow suit, thus triggering a sell-off by countries with larger gold reserves. In fact, until the end, Cyprus didn't really sell gold.</p><p>Therefore, regardless of whether Russia can actually sell its gold reserves, once it sends a signal to sell, the price of gold may face the risk of plummeting.</p><p>Of course, Russia actually has another option. It can sell gold domestically and buy rubles. If the transaction is completed at a fixed price, it will be tantamount to the internal gold standard, which can alleviate the problem of ruble depreciation to a certain extent.</p><p>Usually, a country will not sell its gold reserves on a large scale unless it is a last resort. Although Russia faces severe sanctions from Western countries, it has not yet reached the last step of the end of the road, and there is also good news in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations; However, if Russia says it will sell gold, the blow to gold prices will be huge.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisaster! $150 billion worth of gold may be sold off\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-17 18:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Western countries launched economic sanctions against Russia. Half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves and gold were frozen, and the Russian economy suffered heavy losses.</p><p>In more than a month, the Russian ruble depreciated sharply. The USD/Ruble once rose sharply from 77.37 in February to 121.2, an increase of 56.6%! The ruble was once cut in half and is currently hovering around 105.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cf1b30247af890f746d2b1ab694913\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>USD/RUB chart, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Russia may intend to sell gold reserves</b></p><p>There are rumors in the market that Russia is considering selling its gold reserves to tide over the storm.</p><p>According to foreign media, although European and American countries have decided to freeze the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank, since all the gold held by the Russian central bank is stored in their own territory, the Russian central bank can still use this valuable asset.</p><p>Russia has been increasing its gold holdings since 2000. According to data from the World Gold Council, Russia's gold reserves are as high as nearly 2,300 tons, ranking fifth in the world. Even at the price of $1,900/oz, its value exceeds $150 billion!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd0cb5f35c3fb3a36846775d261fc07\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Global Gold Reserves, Source: Investing.com</p><p><b>Hard to successfully sell</b></p><p>It is very difficult to get rid of such a huge gold reserve in a short time. Moreover, European and American countries have also thought of the possibility of Russia selling gold. Traders, commercial banks and even countries that want to buy Russian gold may face severe sanctions.</p><p>Given that Russia has been kicked out of the SWIFT dollar settlement system, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and CME group have also suspended the certification of all Russian gold refineries, amounting to banning the country's newly minted gold bars from entering the world's two largest markets. The scale of other markets is limited, and it is difficult to eat such huge gold reserves. Even small-scale sales will be difficult to bypass SWIFT to remit money to Russia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e88c7cc4c0990e5f11aabacaa48f505\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The impact of central bank collection</b></p><p>In fact, 80% of the world's gold is in private circulation, and the central bank's gold reserves only account for about 20% of all gold. Normally, the impact of the central bank's buying and selling of gold on the price of gold is limited. However, the central bank's behavior of selling gold can easily cause panic in the gold market, causing gold prices to plummet in a short period of time.</p><p>The most obvious example is the 2013 sell-off of gold reserves in Cyprus. At that time, Cyprus was in a deep debt crisis, and the country was about to go bankrupt. There were rumors in the market that the central bank of the country was about to sell gold reserves in exchange for funds and reduce bankruptcy costs.</p><p>Immediately, the price of gold fell sharply for two consecutive days, from US $1,560 to US $1,360, and fell by US $200 in two days, with a range of 12.8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f527acaa03dc4471790785e4b4f30398\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gold price action amid Cyprus gold sell-off, Source: Investing.com</p><p>You must know that Cyprus's gold reserves at that time were only about 10 tons, which was only worth about 400 million euros at that time. It is not in the same order of magnitude as Russia's 2,300 tons of gold reserves. The market is mainly worried that once Cyprus does sell gold, it may trigger other heavily indebted European countries to follow suit, thus triggering a sell-off by countries with larger gold reserves. In fact, until the end, Cyprus didn't really sell gold.</p><p>Therefore, regardless of whether Russia can actually sell its gold reserves, once it sends a signal to sell, the price of gold may face the risk of plummeting.</p><p>Of course, Russia actually has another option. It can sell gold domestically and buy rubles. If the transaction is completed at a fixed price, it will be tantamount to the internal gold standard, which can alleviate the problem of ruble depreciation to a certain extent.</p><p>Usually, a country will not sell its gold reserves on a large scale unless it is a last resort. Although Russia faces severe sanctions from Western countries, it has not yet reached the last step of the end of the road, and there is also good news in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations; However, if Russia says it will sell gold, the blow to gold prices will be huge.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c4b7f0fed80012c8b751d783a3376","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180910277","content_text":"随着俄乌冲突爆发，西方国家展开了对俄罗斯的经济制裁。俄罗斯一半的外汇储备和黄金被冻结，俄罗斯经济遭遇重创。在一个多月的时间内，俄罗斯卢布大幅贬值。美元兑卢布从2月份的77.37一度大幅上涨至121.2，涨幅达56.6%！卢布一度遭到腰斩，目前在105附近徘徊。美元/卢布走势图，来源：Investing.com俄罗斯或打算出售黄金储备市场有传言称，俄罗斯正考虑出售黄金储备来度过难关。报外媒道称，虽然欧美国家决定冻结俄罗斯央行的外汇资产，但由于俄罗斯央行持有的黄金悉数存放在本国境内，所以俄罗斯央行还可以动用这笔宝贵的资产。从2000年以后，俄罗斯就一直在增持黄金。根据世界黄金协会的数据显示，俄罗斯的黄金储备高达将近2300吨，排名全球第五位。即使按照1900美元/盎司的价格来算的话，其价值也超过了1500亿美元！全球黄金储备，来源：Investing.com难以成功出售如此庞大的黄金储备想要在短时间内脱手是非常困难的。而且欧美国家也想到了俄罗斯出售黄金的可能性。想要购买俄罗斯黄金的贸易商、商业银行甚至国家都有可能面临严苛的制裁。鉴于俄罗斯已被踢出SWIFT美元结算系统，伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）和芝商所还暂停了所有俄罗斯黄金精炼厂的认证，相当于禁止该国新铸造的金条进入世界两大市场。而其他市场的规模有限，很难吃下如此庞大的黄金储备。即使小规模的出售也很难绕开SWIFT将前汇给俄罗斯。央行收金的影响事实上，全球黄金的80%是在民间流通的，央行的黄金储备只占所有黄金的20%左右。正常来讲央行买卖黄金对金价的影响是有限的。但是央行抛售黄金这一行为非常容易引起黄金市场的恐慌情绪，令金价在短时间内暴跌。最明显的一个例子就是2013年塞浦路斯抛售黄金储备事件。当时塞浦路斯深陷债务危机，眼看国家即将破产，市场传言该国央行即将出售黄金储备以换取资金，并且减少破产费用。随即，金价连续两日大幅下跌，从1560美元跌至1360美元，两日下跌跌200美元，幅达12.8%。塞浦路斯抛售黄金事件中金价走势，来源：Investing.com要知道当时塞浦路斯的黄金储备仅有10吨左右，当时仅价值4亿欧元左右。与俄罗斯2300吨的黄金储备完全不在一个量级上面。市场主要担心塞浦路斯一旦真的抛售黄金，可能会引发其他欧洲重债国家的效仿，从而引发更大黄金储备国的抛售。事实上，一直到最后塞浦路斯也并未真正抛售黄金。所以，不管俄罗斯能否真的出售黄金储备，一旦他发出抛售的信号，金价就可能面临暴跌的风险。当然，俄罗斯其实还有一种选择，它可以在国内出售黄金并买入卢布。如果以固定价格完成交易，那将无异于内部黄金本位制，一定程度上可以缓解卢布贬值的问题。通常，一个国家在不到万不得已的情况下是不会大规模抛售黄金储备的，虽然俄罗斯面临西方国家的严厉制裁，但目前还没有到穷途末路的最后一步，并且俄乌谈判也出现了利好消息；但是，若俄罗斯一旦表示将出售黄金，那对于金价的打击将是巨大的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}