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直是少人行
2022-12-12
$美团-W(03690)$
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直是少人行
2021-08-02
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Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.
直是少人行
2021-07-27
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Tesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> 。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> 。","text":"$美团-W(03690)$ 。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629472141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805238076,"gmtCreate":1627882186795,"gmtModify":1703497125708,"author":{"id":"3571201768900700","authorId":"3571201768900700","name":"直是少人行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7fb97ff5f882a8b649a885fcdd22e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571201768900700","authorIdStr":"3571201768900700"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805238076","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195922259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627527847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195922259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195922259","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。","content":"<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">巴伦周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA\">巴伦周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa1cab0c234d687b17edd1782d0366e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195922259","content_text":"吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）是一个混杂了专业知识与街头智慧的投资家，没有人会忽视他对经济大势的判断。罗杰斯近期发出警告，在新冠疫情之后，世界经济拿到了最糟糕的剧本，一场比「雷曼时刻」更大的危机必然会到来。\n那么，等到危机真正来临时，我们应该怎么办？吉姆·罗杰斯告诫我们，不要太过于相信常识，因为任何常识每隔十五年都会迎来戏剧性的反转。本文选自本书第三章《危机来临时，我们应该怎么办？》，它记录了罗杰斯的危机应对指南。\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话「以史为镜，可以知兴替」，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓「红色帝国」便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的「终极胜利」，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的「历史终结论」。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，「危机」这个词是由「危」和「机」两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的「社会经济」版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：「上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！」可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：「感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！」\n不错。无论是「9·11」事件这样的人祸，还是「日本大海啸」这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：「没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。」\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：「留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。」\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对「十五年后自己的人生将截然不同」这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的「大萧条」中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：「永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。」我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：「永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。」这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓「不熟不做」的道理。\n所有人都喜欢「热点消息」「独家情报」。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点「内部消息」，都希望从我嘴里说一句「哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！」可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？「我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！」——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓「热点消息」「独家情报」了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择「按兵不动」，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的「购买俄罗斯债券」的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：「应该如何投资俄罗斯？」我的回答一定是：「如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。」就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：「美元是安全的避难所。」没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪「金银无用论」，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即「认为」这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到「缺乏速度感」的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：「现金为王」，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809076086,"gmtCreate":1627342354245,"gmtModify":1703487823461,"author":{"id":"3571201768900700","authorId":"3571201768900700","name":"直是少人行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7fb97ff5f882a8b649a885fcdd22e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571201768900700","authorIdStr":"3571201768900700"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809076086","repostId":"1151266467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151266467","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627340837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151266467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151266467","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间7月26日周一美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商、电动汽车巨头特斯拉公布了二季报，开启美股二季度财报季最繁忙的一周。\n由于季度营收好于预期，净收入创新高且连续八个季度实现盈利，特斯拉盘后一度涨","content":"<p>On Monday, July 26, Eastern Time, after the US stock market closed, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market capitalization and electric vehicle giant, released its second-quarter earnings report, kicking off the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season for US stocks.</p><p>Tesla rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading due to better-than-expected quarterly revenue, record-high net income, and eight consecutive quarters of profitability. The stock closed up 2.2% on Monday at $657.62. Since releasing its financial report on April 26, Tesla's stock has fallen by nearly 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3405b2d73e47a1871dbe3cc47eb1fc\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Second-quarter GAAP net income exceeded $1 billion for the first time, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profitability, and revenue exceeded $10 billion for the third consecutive quarter.</b></p><p>Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a 98% year-over-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $11.36 billion.<b>Revenue was $1 billion higher than the first quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter that it has exceeded the $10 billion mark.</b>Adjusted EPS was $1.45 per share, significantly higher than the market expectation of $0.97.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d1f376d6afedd7259685403dce4ef7\" tg-width=\"1460\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Net income under GAAP for the quarter was $1.14 billion, marking the first time in the company's history that it exceeded the $1 billion mark, a tenfold increase year-over-year.</b>(A growth of nearly 1000%), exceeding market expectations of $650 million and breaking the all-time record of $438 million in the first quarter. Non-GAAP net income has exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive quarters, and the first quarter of this year marked the first time it has surpassed this figure.</p><p><b>This not only represents Tesla's record quarterly profit, but also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of positive profitability.</b>Analysts say this means the company has largely avoided the adverse effects of chip shortages that would limit the global automotive industry.<b>。</b>Last year, driven by China, one of the world's largest electric vehicle markets, Tesla achieved its first full-year profit in company history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b58120cc5b599f6674d4d3786ad437\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's operating profit exceeded $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 301%, four times the $327 million in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of $835 million. The operating profit margin was 11%, a surge of 555 basis points (5.55%) year-on-year.</p><p>The GAAP gross profit margin of the main automotive business rose to 28.4%, up 300 basis points from 25.4% in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of 25%. Excluding regulatory credit, the gross profit margin of automobiles was 25.8%, up more than 300 basis points quarter-on-quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2017.</p><p><b>Bitcoin reported $23 million in related impairment losses, warning that parts supply will have a significant impact on this year's delivery growth rate.</b></p><p>The company stated that the year-over-year increase in operating profit was due to increased auto sales and lower costs, but was partially offset by increased operating expenses, including CEO Elon Musk's increased stock-based compensation plan, negative profits in the division due to the Model S/X high-end Model redesign, and additional supply chain costs.<b>Decreased revenue from the sale of regulatory credit, as well as a $23 million impairment loss related to Bitcoin, etc.</b>。 As of the end of the first quarter, Tesla had stated that it still held $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>In the second quarter, Tesla recorded free cash flow of $619 million, more than double market expectations, but $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments reduced its cash and cash equivalents held by $912 million at the end of the quarter to $16.2 billion. The company stated that it has sufficient liquidity to support its product roadmap and expects its operating profit margin to increase to an industry-leading level as capacity expansion and localized production proceed.</p><p><b>It's worth noting that Tesla still expects vehicle deliveries to grow at an average annual rate of 50% within a few years.</b>When releasing its first-quarter report in April, it reiterated this commitment, which it had upheld since January.<b>However, the company also warned that growth may be faster in some years, such as this year. Bloomberg reports that this means Tesla's delivery guidance this year may be higher than market expectations.</b>：</p><p>\"The growth rate will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capabilities and stability of our supply chain.\"<b>With global automotive demand reaching record levels, parts supply will have a significant impact on our delivery growth rate for the remainder of the year.</b>。 Supply chain challenges, particularly global semiconductor shortages and port congestion, persisted in the second quarter.<b>Model Y production in Texas and Germany remains on track this year, with Shanghai becoming a major hub for automobile exports. Regulatory credit income has fallen to 30% of net income.</b></p><p>Regarding new product launches, Tesla still believes it can build its first Model Y compact SUV this year at its Gigafactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas. Given this priority, coupled with limited battery supply and global supply chain challenges, the company has postponed the launch of its semi-trailer truck, the Tesla Semi, until next year. The all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, will be launched after the Model Y is completed at its Texas plant.</p><p>Tesla also stated:</p><p>\"Model S production at plants in California and Texas has increased and is expected to continue to improve throughout the remainder of 2021; most Model 3/Y vehicles are delivered in the North American market. The Shanghai plant in China has been slightly disrupted due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, but production activity remains very strong, and Shanghai is now a major hub for automobile exports.\" The Berlin plant in Germany continues to install equipment and has begun testing tools in hopes of starting production as soon as possible.<b>Analysts also noted that Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the second quarter of this year \"became more normalized,\" falling to $354 million quarter-over-quarter.</b>It accounts for only 30% of GAAP net income. Before the financial report, some analysts said that if net income could surpass regulatory credit income, it would be an important milestone for the company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd5fe1ff805784026f2ab4b08cfbdce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits reached $518 million, exceeding GAAP net income for several consecutive quarters (a record high of $438 million at the time) and accounting for the vast majority of operating income ($594 million at the time), a measure of the company's profitability.</p><p>Critics say this means that this revenue will continue to be a key driver of Tesla's profitability, and the company will incur losses simply by selling cars. The first quarter of this year marked not only the seventh consecutive quarter that Tesla had been profitable, but also the sixth consecutive quarter that it had been unable to make a profit without regulating credit sales.</p><p>Because Tesla is producing more zero-emission vehicles than its quota, it can sell the excess credits to automakers; otherwise, these competitors would manufacture vehicles below the requirements of global regulators and face huge refunds. Throughout 2020, Tesla generated nearly $1.6 billion in revenue from selling such credits, three times its $594 million revenue in 2019. Pessimists believe that as more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle market, the demand for Tesla's excess regulatory credit will decrease, thereby impacting its profits.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price has fallen nearly 7% this year, citing concerns about the impact of global factory openings, semiconductor shortages, and intensified competition.</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price surged more than eightfold last year, making it one of the best-performing U.S. stocks in 2020. As of Monday's close, it has fallen about 7% ($705.67) year-to-date in 2021, far less than the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have risen nearly 18% and 15% respectively during the same period.</p><p>Tesla's stock price has still doubled in the past 12 months.<b>However, it has fallen nearly 27% from the all-time high of $900.40 on January 25, entering a technical bear market. Analysts say this is due to increased regulatory scrutiny of vehicle safety and more intense competition in the global electric vehicle sector.</b>。</p><p>In early July, Tesla announced that it delivered 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, marking the first time in the company's history that single-quarter deliveries exceeded 200,000 and breaking the first-quarter delivery record. This represented an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase and a surge of 121% year-on-year, bringing the stock price back to $700 for the first time in two months. The company produced 206,400 vehicles that quarter, including 204,000 Model 3 and Model Y compact SUVs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6acfbe781e50535f5c9a17e04387f316\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors are focusing on Tesla's progress in opening new factories in more parts of the world, the specific impact of the semiconductor shortage amid the pandemic on the automotive industry and the company, and how it will adapt to the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle sector. In its first-quarter report released in April, the company reiterated that deliveries would grow at an average annual rate of 50% over the next few years, but also warned that the growth rate would depend on equipment capacity, operational efficiency and supply chain stability.</p><p>Tesla stated in April that it still expects to deliver the first cars assembled at its Austin Gigafactory in Texas and its Berlin Gigafactory in Germany by the end of this year. Musk also hopes to deliver the first all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, and a semi-trailer truck, which was delayed by two years, this year.</p><p>Musk expects the Cybertruck all-electric pickup truck to enter mass production in 2022, with the current focus on completing the construction of the Texas Gigafactory, which will be mainly used to produce the model. Recent reports also indicate that the Tesla Semi semi-trailer truck will soon begin production in Nevada, USA.</p><p>In May, he acknowledged that Tesla was affected by parts shortages and rising prices in the second quarter, and that the company was revising some designs to address these challenges. He added that electric vehicle prices have increased at least six times this year due to \"supply chain pressures across the entire automotive industry, especially raw materials.\" RBC analyst Joseph Spak once believed that the impact of supply shortages on Tesla may be reflected in its second-quarter report.</p><p><b>Tesla is updating its high-end models and will open its charging network to other electric vehicles by the end of the year. Bitcoin' holdings are considered high-risk.</b></p><p>To maintain its leading position in electric vehicles, Tesla is planning to build a new factory in India and advance a plan to produce batteries internally, as well as striving to update its high-end models to make them more profitable. Deliveries of the enhanced Model S Plaid luxury sedan began in June this year, and the redesigned Model X SUV is also under development and is expected to open for pre-order next year. Both models have been impacted by declining sales in recent years.</p><p>Tesla recently added a subscription service model that allows users to access upgraded versions of its advanced driver assistance systems for $199 per month without having to pay $10,000 upfront, lowering the barrier to entry for customers while generating more stable recurring income.</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk revealed on social media last week that Tesla will open its Supercharger network to other electric vehicles later this year. Investors are closely monitoring such business developments, as they will be crucial to the company's financial reports. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out that Tesla's charging revenue is \"conservatively estimated\" to be $2.9 billion by 2023, not including charging revenue from non-Tesla vehicles.</p><p>According to Electrek, an automotive news blog that supports Tesla,<b>Investors' focus remains on \"growth,\" meaning Tesla needs to increase production capacity and ensure battery supply.</b>：</p><p>Details such as updates to Tesla's new 4680 battery production, new 420-watt solar panels and the sale of more hardware to third-party installers, how open charging networks will affect Tesla's ownership experience, and progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) are all highlights of the financial report. In addition, Tesla's holdings in Bitcoin have also attracted much attention. In February of this year, the company disclosed that it spent $1.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin, and in April it sold a portion of its holdings, resulting in a net profit of $101 million in the first quarter. In May, Musk suddenly announced that he would not accept payments from Bitcoin, and last week he said that Tesla might reinstate Bitcoin as a payment method if green electricity accounts for more than half of the mining in Bitcoin.</p><p>Critics believe this further proves that Tesla cannot make money by selling cars alone, and the Bitcoin deal has also made some investors nervous, as Bitcoin fell nearly 41% in the second quarter, the largest second-quarter percentage drop in history, mainly due to stricter regulatory crackdowns in countries such as the United States and China. Prior to the second quarter, Bitcoin had risen for four consecutive quarters, during which prices increased sixfold to nearly $60,000. The drop in Bitcoin prices may also lead to some investment losses in Tesla's second-quarter report. On Monday, Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time since June.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Monday, July 26, Eastern Time, after the US stock market closed, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market capitalization and electric vehicle giant, released its second-quarter earnings report, kicking off the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season for US stocks.</p><p>Tesla rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading due to better-than-expected quarterly revenue, record-high net income, and eight consecutive quarters of profitability. The stock closed up 2.2% on Monday at $657.62. Since releasing its financial report on April 26, Tesla's stock has fallen by nearly 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3405b2d73e47a1871dbe3cc47eb1fc\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Second-quarter GAAP net income exceeded $1 billion for the first time, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profitability, and revenue exceeded $10 billion for the third consecutive quarter.</b></p><p>Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a 98% year-over-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $11.36 billion.<b>Revenue was $1 billion higher than the first quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter that it has exceeded the $10 billion mark.</b>Adjusted EPS was $1.45 per share, significantly higher than the market expectation of $0.97.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d1f376d6afedd7259685403dce4ef7\" tg-width=\"1460\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Net income under GAAP for the quarter was $1.14 billion, marking the first time in the company's history that it exceeded the $1 billion mark, a tenfold increase year-over-year.</b>(A growth of nearly 1000%), exceeding market expectations of $650 million and breaking the all-time record of $438 million in the first quarter. Non-GAAP net income has exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive quarters, and the first quarter of this year marked the first time it has surpassed this figure.</p><p><b>This not only represents Tesla's record quarterly profit, but also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of positive profitability.</b>Analysts say this means the company has largely avoided the adverse effects of chip shortages that would limit the global automotive industry.<b>。</b>Last year, driven by China, one of the world's largest electric vehicle markets, Tesla achieved its first full-year profit in company history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b58120cc5b599f6674d4d3786ad437\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's operating profit exceeded $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 301%, four times the $327 million in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of $835 million. The operating profit margin was 11%, a surge of 555 basis points (5.55%) year-on-year.</p><p>The GAAP gross profit margin of the main automotive business rose to 28.4%, up 300 basis points from 25.4% in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of 25%. Excluding regulatory credit, the gross profit margin of automobiles was 25.8%, up more than 300 basis points quarter-on-quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2017.</p><p><b>Bitcoin reported $23 million in related impairment losses, warning that parts supply will have a significant impact on this year's delivery growth rate.</b></p><p>The company stated that the year-over-year increase in operating profit was due to increased auto sales and lower costs, but was partially offset by increased operating expenses, including CEO Elon Musk's increased stock-based compensation plan, negative profits in the division due to the Model S/X high-end Model redesign, and additional supply chain costs.<b>Decreased revenue from the sale of regulatory credit, as well as a $23 million impairment loss related to Bitcoin, etc.</b>。 As of the end of the first quarter, Tesla had stated that it still held $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>In the second quarter, Tesla recorded free cash flow of $619 million, more than double market expectations, but $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments reduced its cash and cash equivalents held by $912 million at the end of the quarter to $16.2 billion. The company stated that it has sufficient liquidity to support its product roadmap and expects its operating profit margin to increase to an industry-leading level as capacity expansion and localized production proceed.</p><p><b>It's worth noting that Tesla still expects vehicle deliveries to grow at an average annual rate of 50% within a few years.</b>When releasing its first-quarter report in April, it reiterated this commitment, which it had upheld since January.<b>However, the company also warned that growth may be faster in some years, such as this year. Bloomberg reports that this means Tesla's delivery guidance this year may be higher than market expectations.</b>：</p><p>\"The growth rate will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capabilities and stability of our supply chain.\"<b>With global automotive demand reaching record levels, parts supply will have a significant impact on our delivery growth rate for the remainder of the year.</b>。 Supply chain challenges, particularly global semiconductor shortages and port congestion, persisted in the second quarter.<b>Model Y production in Texas and Germany remains on track this year, with Shanghai becoming a major hub for automobile exports. Regulatory credit income has fallen to 30% of net income.</b></p><p>Regarding new product launches, Tesla still believes it can build its first Model Y compact SUV this year at its Gigafactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas. Given this priority, coupled with limited battery supply and global supply chain challenges, the company has postponed the launch of its semi-trailer truck, the Tesla Semi, until next year. The all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, will be launched after the Model Y is completed at its Texas plant.</p><p>Tesla also stated:</p><p>\"Model S production at plants in California and Texas has increased and is expected to continue to improve throughout the remainder of 2021; most Model 3/Y vehicles are delivered in the North American market. The Shanghai plant in China has been slightly disrupted due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, but production activity remains very strong, and Shanghai is now a major hub for automobile exports.\" The Berlin plant in Germany continues to install equipment and has begun testing tools in hopes of starting production as soon as possible.<b>Analysts also noted that Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the second quarter of this year \"became more normalized,\" falling to $354 million quarter-over-quarter.</b>It accounts for only 30% of GAAP net income. Before the financial report, some analysts said that if net income could surpass regulatory credit income, it would be an important milestone for the company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd5fe1ff805784026f2ab4b08cfbdce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits reached $518 million, exceeding GAAP net income for several consecutive quarters (a record high of $438 million at the time) and accounting for the vast majority of operating income ($594 million at the time), a measure of the company's profitability.</p><p>Critics say this means that this revenue will continue to be a key driver of Tesla's profitability, and the company will incur losses simply by selling cars. The first quarter of this year marked not only the seventh consecutive quarter that Tesla had been profitable, but also the sixth consecutive quarter that it had been unable to make a profit without regulating credit sales.</p><p>Because Tesla is producing more zero-emission vehicles than its quota, it can sell the excess credits to automakers; otherwise, these competitors would manufacture vehicles below the requirements of global regulators and face huge refunds. Throughout 2020, Tesla generated nearly $1.6 billion in revenue from selling such credits, three times its $594 million revenue in 2019. Pessimists believe that as more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle market, the demand for Tesla's excess regulatory credit will decrease, thereby impacting its profits.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price has fallen nearly 7% this year, citing concerns about the impact of global factory openings, semiconductor shortages, and intensified competition.</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price surged more than eightfold last year, making it one of the best-performing U.S. stocks in 2020. As of Monday's close, it has fallen about 7% ($705.67) year-to-date in 2021, far less than the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have risen nearly 18% and 15% respectively during the same period.</p><p>Tesla's stock price has still doubled in the past 12 months.<b>However, it has fallen nearly 27% from the all-time high of $900.40 on January 25, entering a technical bear market. Analysts say this is due to increased regulatory scrutiny of vehicle safety and more intense competition in the global electric vehicle sector.</b>。</p><p>In early July, Tesla announced that it delivered 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, marking the first time in the company's history that single-quarter deliveries exceeded 200,000 and breaking the first-quarter delivery record. This represented an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase and a surge of 121% year-on-year, bringing the stock price back to $700 for the first time in two months. The company produced 206,400 vehicles that quarter, including 204,000 Model 3 and Model Y compact SUVs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6acfbe781e50535f5c9a17e04387f316\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors are focusing on Tesla's progress in opening new factories in more parts of the world, the specific impact of the semiconductor shortage amid the pandemic on the automotive industry and the company, and how it will adapt to the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle sector. In its first-quarter report released in April, the company reiterated that deliveries would grow at an average annual rate of 50% over the next few years, but also warned that the growth rate would depend on equipment capacity, operational efficiency and supply chain stability.</p><p>Tesla stated in April that it still expects to deliver the first cars assembled at its Austin Gigafactory in Texas and its Berlin Gigafactory in Germany by the end of this year. Musk also hopes to deliver the first all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, and a semi-trailer truck, which was delayed by two years, this year.</p><p>Musk expects the Cybertruck all-electric pickup truck to enter mass production in 2022, with the current focus on completing the construction of the Texas Gigafactory, which will be mainly used to produce the model. Recent reports also indicate that the Tesla Semi semi-trailer truck will soon begin production in Nevada, USA.</p><p>In May, he acknowledged that Tesla was affected by parts shortages and rising prices in the second quarter, and that the company was revising some designs to address these challenges. He added that electric vehicle prices have increased at least six times this year due to \"supply chain pressures across the entire automotive industry, especially raw materials.\" RBC analyst Joseph Spak once believed that the impact of supply shortages on Tesla may be reflected in its second-quarter report.</p><p><b>Tesla is updating its high-end models and will open its charging network to other electric vehicles by the end of the year. Bitcoin' holdings are considered high-risk.</b></p><p>To maintain its leading position in electric vehicles, Tesla is planning to build a new factory in India and advance a plan to produce batteries internally, as well as striving to update its high-end models to make them more profitable. Deliveries of the enhanced Model S Plaid luxury sedan began in June this year, and the redesigned Model X SUV is also under development and is expected to open for pre-order next year. Both models have been impacted by declining sales in recent years.</p><p>Tesla recently added a subscription service model that allows users to access upgraded versions of its advanced driver assistance systems for $199 per month without having to pay $10,000 upfront, lowering the barrier to entry for customers while generating more stable recurring income.</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk revealed on social media last week that Tesla will open its Supercharger network to other electric vehicles later this year. Investors are closely monitoring such business developments, as they will be crucial to the company's financial reports. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out that Tesla's charging revenue is \"conservatively estimated\" to be $2.9 billion by 2023, not including charging revenue from non-Tesla vehicles.</p><p>According to Electrek, an automotive news blog that supports Tesla,<b>Investors' focus remains on \"growth,\" meaning Tesla needs to increase production capacity and ensure battery supply.</b>：</p><p>Details such as updates to Tesla's new 4680 battery production, new 420-watt solar panels and the sale of more hardware to third-party installers, how open charging networks will affect Tesla's ownership experience, and progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) are all highlights of the financial report. In addition, Tesla's holdings in Bitcoin have also attracted much attention. In February of this year, the company disclosed that it spent $1.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin, and in April it sold a portion of its holdings, resulting in a net profit of $101 million in the first quarter. In May, Musk suddenly announced that he would not accept payments from Bitcoin, and last week he said that Tesla might reinstate Bitcoin as a payment method if green electricity accounts for more than half of the mining in Bitcoin.</p><p>Critics believe this further proves that Tesla cannot make money by selling cars alone, and the Bitcoin deal has also made some investors nervous, as Bitcoin fell nearly 41% in the second quarter, the largest second-quarter percentage drop in history, mainly due to stricter regulatory crackdowns in countries such as the United States and China. Prior to the second quarter, Bitcoin had risen for four consecutive quarters, during which prices increased sixfold to nearly $60,000. The drop in Bitcoin prices may also lead to some investment losses in Tesla's second-quarter report. On Monday, Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time since June.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151266467","content_text":"美东时间7月26日周一美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商、电动汽车巨头特斯拉公布了二季报，开启美股二季度财报季最繁忙的一周。\n由于季度营收好于预期，净收入创新高且连续八个季度实现盈利，特斯拉盘后一度涨近3%。周一该股收涨2.2%，报657.62美元。自4月26日公布财报以来，特斯拉累跌近11%。二季度GAAP净收入首次突破10亿美元，连续八季盈利，营收连续三季度突破100亿\n财报显示，特斯拉在2021年第二季度营收119.6亿美元，同比增长98%，高于分析师预期的113.6亿美元，比一季度营收高出10亿美元，也是连续三个季度超过100亿美元大关。调整后EPS为每股收益1.45美元，显著高于市场预期的0.97美元。当季GAAP项下净收入为11.4亿美元，是公司史上首次超过10亿美元大关，同比翻了10倍（增长近1000%），高于市场预期的6.5亿美元，并打破一季度4.38亿美元所创的史上最高盈利纪录。非GAAP净收入已连续两个季度超过10亿美元，今年一季度是首次突破这一整数位。\n这不仅代表特斯拉创下季度盈利新高，也是连续第八个季度实现正盈利。分析称，这代表公司很大程度上避免了限制全球汽车产业的芯片短缺不利影响。去年在全球最大电动车市场之一中国的带动下，特斯拉曾实现了公司历史上首个全年盈利。二季度特斯拉运营利润冲破13亿美元，同比增301%，是去年同期3.27亿美元的四倍，高于市场预期的8.35亿美元。运营利润率为11%，同比暴增555个基点（5.55%）。\n主营的汽车业务GAAP毛利率升至28.4%，较去年同期的25.4%上行300个基点，高于市场预期的25%。去除监管信用后的汽车毛利率为25.8%，按季环比升超300个基点，创2017年一季度来季度最高。\n比特币相关减值损失2300万美元，警告零部件供应对今年交付增长率有重大影响\n公司称，运营利润同比增长得益于汽车销量增长和成本下降，但部分被运营费用增长抵消，其中包括CEO马斯克基于股票的薪酬激励计划增加、Model S/X高端车型改造导致该部门负利润、额外的供应链成本、出售监管信用的收入减少，以及与比特币相关的减值损失2300万美元等。截至一季度末，特斯拉曾称还持有价值13亿美元的比特币。\n二季度，特斯拉录得较市场预期翻倍的自由现金流6.19亿美元，但16亿美元的净债务和融资租赁还款令其季末持有的现金及其等价物减少9.12亿美元，至162亿美元。公司称，有足够的流动性来支撑产品路线图，预计随着产能扩张和本地化生产进行，运营利润率将增至行业领先水平。\n值得注意的是，特斯拉仍预期汽车交付量在几年内实现50%的年均增长率，4月发布一季报时也重申了这项1月起就秉持的承诺。但公司也警告称，某些年份可能增长更快，例如今年。彭博社称，这代表今年特斯拉交付指引可能高于市场预期：\n\n “增长速度将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率，以及供应链的能力和稳定性。 \n 随着全球汽车需求达到创纪录水平，零部件供应将对我们今年剩余时间的交付增长率产生重大影响。供应链挑战，特别是全球半导体短缺和港口拥堵，在第二季度继续存在。”\n\n今年在美国得州和德国生产Model Y仍处正轨，上海成汽车出口主要枢纽，监管信用收入回落至净收入三成\n在新品推介方面，特斯拉仍相信有望今年在德国柏林和美国得州奥斯汀的超级工厂建造第一辆Model Y紧凑型SUV。在这一优先事项的考虑下，外加电池供应有限和全球供应链挑战，公司已将半挂式卡车Tesla Semi的启动时间推迟到明年，全电动皮卡Cybertruck将在得州工厂生产完Model Y后进行。\n特斯拉还表示：\n\n “美国加州和得州工厂Model S产量提高，预计将在2021年剩余时间内继续改善；大多数Model 3/Y车辆在北美市场交付。由于供应链挑战和工厂升级的缘故，中国上海工厂略微受到干扰，但生产活动仍然非常强劲，上海现在是汽车出口的主要枢纽。德国柏林工厂继续安装设备，已经开始测试工具，以期尽快投产。”\n\n分析师还注意到，特斯拉今年二季度通过出售环境监管信用（regulatory credits）的收入“更趋正常化”，季环比降至3.54亿美元，仅占GAAP净收入的30%。财报前曾有分析师称，如果净收入能反超监管信用收入，将是公司的一个重要里程碑。一季度时，特斯拉出售监管信用的收入曾高达5.18亿美元，连续多个季度高于GAAP项下净收入（当时为创新高的4.38亿美元），并占衡量公司盈利能力的指标——运营利润（operating income）的绝大部分（当时为5.94亿美元）。\n批评人士称，这代表该项收入持续成为特斯拉盈利的关键动力，公司单纯卖车将陷入亏损。今年一季度不仅是特斯拉连续第七个季度盈利，也是连续第六个季度没有监管信用销售就无法盈利。\n由于特斯拉的零排放汽车生产量超过其配额，可以将多余的信用额出售给汽车制造商，否则这些竞争对手制造的车辆将低于全球监管机构的要求，进而面临巨额返款。2020全年，特斯拉通过出售此类信用产生了近16亿美元收入，是2019年5.94亿美元收入的三倍。唱衰人士认为，随着越来越多的传统汽车制造商进军电动车，将减少对特斯拉多余监管信用的需求，进而影响其利润。\n今年特斯拉累跌近7%，关注全球开设新厂、半导体短缺和竞争加剧的影响\n特斯拉去年股价飙升了八倍多，曾是2020年表现最好的美股之一。截至周一收盘，2021年至今累跌约7%（705.67美元），远逊于同期标普500指数大盘和道指分别累涨近18%和近15%。\n过去12个月，特斯拉仍股价翻倍，但较1月25日创下900.40美元的历史新高回落近27%，陷入技术熊市。分析称，这是由于对车辆安全的监管审查加剧，以及全球电动汽车领域竞争更激烈。\n特斯拉在7月初宣布，今年二季度交付汽车20.125万辆，是公司史上首次单季交付量超20万，并打破第一季度的交付新高，环比增长8%，同比猛增121%，令股价在两个月里首次重回700美元。当季汽车产量20.64万辆，其中包括20.4万辆“平民神车”Model 3和Model Y紧凑型SUV。\n\n投资者关注特斯拉在全球更多地区开设新工厂的进展、疫情下半导体短缺对汽车行业和该公司的具体影响，以及其如何适应电动汽车领域日益激烈的竞争。公司曾在4月发布一季报时重申，未来几年交付量年均增长率为50%，但也警告称，增长率取决于设备产能、运营效率和供应链稳定。\n特斯拉曾在4月表示，仍有望今年底前交付在美国得州奥斯汀超级工厂以及德国柏林超级工厂组装的第一批汽车，马斯克还希望今年交付第一辆全电动皮卡Cybertruck和延迟两年的半挂卡车。\n马斯克预计Cybertruck全电动皮卡将在2022年进入量产，当前重点是完成建设主要用来生产该车型的美国得州超级工厂。近日还有消息称，半挂卡车Tesla Semi即将在美国内华达州投产。\n5月时他承认特斯拉在第二季度受到零部件短缺和价格上涨的影响，公司正在修改一些设计以面对这些挑战，而电动车今年至少提价六次，是“由于整个汽车行业特别是原材料的供应链压力”。RBC分析师Joseph Spak曾认为，供应短缺对特斯拉的影响可能二季报中具体体现出来。\n特斯拉正更新高端车型，年底开放充电网络给其他电动车，比特币持仓被指高风险\n为了保持电动车领先地位，特斯拉正规划在印度建设新工厂并推进一项内部生产电池的计划，以及努力更新盈利能力更强的高端车型。今年6月开始交付豪华轿车加强版Model S Plaid，改造后的SUV Model X也正在研发中，预计明年开放预定，这两款车型近年来受到销量下滑的冲击。\n特斯拉最近还新增订阅服务模式，用户可以每月199美元的价格访问其高级驾驶辅助系统的升级版本，而不用预付1万美元进行升级，在降低客户入门门槛的同时获得更稳定的经常性收入。\n同时，马斯克上周在社交媒体透露，今年晚些时候特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放超级充电站网络。投资者密切关注此类业务动态，因为将对公司财报至关重要。摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas指出，到2023年“保守估计”特斯拉充电收入为29亿美元，尚未包括非特斯拉汽车带来的充电收入。\n据支持特斯拉的汽车新闻博客Electrek总结，投资者关注重点仍是“增长”，这意味着特斯拉需要增加产能并确保电池供应：\n\n 特斯拉4680新型电池生产的更新、新的420瓦太阳能电池板及向第三方安装商销售更多硬件、开放充电网络如何影响特斯拉的拥有体验、全自动驾驶FSD的进展等细节，都是财报重头戏。\n\n此外，特斯拉的比特币持仓也备受关注。今年2月公司披露花费15亿美元购买比特币，4月出售一部分持仓，令一季度从中获利1.01亿美元净收入。5月马斯克突然宣布不接受比特币付款，上周他又称，如果比特币挖矿使用的绿色电力占比过半，特斯拉可能恢复比特币作为支付手段。\n批评人士认为，这进一步证明特斯拉仅靠卖车不能挣钱，比特币交易也让一些投资者感到紧张，因为比特币在二季度下跌近41%，创史上最大二季度百分比跌幅，主要受中美等国监管从严打击。在二季度之前，比特币曾连续四个季度走高，期间价格翻了六倍至接近6万美元。比特币跌价，也可能令特斯拉二季报因此录得一些账面投资损失。周一，比特币自6月以来首次涨穿4万美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":629472141,"gmtCreate":1670829727184,"gmtModify":1676538442044,"author":{"id":"3571201768900700","authorId":"3571201768900700","name":"直是少人行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7fb97ff5f882a8b649a885fcdd22e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571201768900700","authorIdStr":"3571201768900700"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> 。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$ </a> 。","text":"$美团-W(03690)$ 。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/629472141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805238076,"gmtCreate":1627882186795,"gmtModify":1703497125708,"author":{"id":"3571201768900700","authorId":"3571201768900700","name":"直是少人行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7fb97ff5f882a8b649a885fcdd22e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571201768900700","authorIdStr":"3571201768900700"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805238076","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195922259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627527847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195922259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195922259","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。","content":"<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">巴伦周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA\">巴伦周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa1cab0c234d687b17edd1782d0366e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195922259","content_text":"吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）是一个混杂了专业知识与街头智慧的投资家，没有人会忽视他对经济大势的判断。罗杰斯近期发出警告，在新冠疫情之后，世界经济拿到了最糟糕的剧本，一场比「雷曼时刻」更大的危机必然会到来。\n那么，等到危机真正来临时，我们应该怎么办？吉姆·罗杰斯告诫我们，不要太过于相信常识，因为任何常识每隔十五年都会迎来戏剧性的反转。本文选自本书第三章《危机来临时，我们应该怎么办？》，它记录了罗杰斯的危机应对指南。\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话「以史为镜，可以知兴替」，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓「红色帝国」便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的「终极胜利」，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的「历史终结论」。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，「危机」这个词是由「危」和「机」两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的「社会经济」版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：「上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！」可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：「感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！」\n不错。无论是「9·11」事件这样的人祸，还是「日本大海啸」这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：「没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。」\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：「留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。」\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对「十五年后自己的人生将截然不同」这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的「大萧条」中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：「永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。」我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：「永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。」这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓「不熟不做」的道理。\n所有人都喜欢「热点消息」「独家情报」。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点「内部消息」，都希望从我嘴里说一句「哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！」可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？「我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！」——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓「热点消息」「独家情报」了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择「按兵不动」，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的「购买俄罗斯债券」的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：「应该如何投资俄罗斯？」我的回答一定是：「如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。」就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：「美元是安全的避难所。」没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪「金银无用论」，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即「认为」这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到「缺乏速度感」的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：「现金为王」，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809076086,"gmtCreate":1627342354245,"gmtModify":1703487823461,"author":{"id":"3571201768900700","authorId":"3571201768900700","name":"直是少人行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7fb97ff5f882a8b649a885fcdd22e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571201768900700","authorIdStr":"3571201768900700"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809076086","repostId":"1151266467","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151266467","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627340837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151266467?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151266467","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间7月26日周一美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商、电动汽车巨头特斯拉公布了二季报，开启美股二季度财报季最繁忙的一周。\n由于季度营收好于预期，净收入创新高且连续八个季度实现盈利，特斯拉盘后一度涨","content":"<p>On Monday, July 26, Eastern Time, after the US stock market closed, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market capitalization and electric vehicle giant, released its second-quarter earnings report, kicking off the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season for US stocks.</p><p>Tesla rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading due to better-than-expected quarterly revenue, record-high net income, and eight consecutive quarters of profitability. The stock closed up 2.2% on Monday at $657.62. Since releasing its financial report on April 26, Tesla's stock has fallen by nearly 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3405b2d73e47a1871dbe3cc47eb1fc\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Second-quarter GAAP net income exceeded $1 billion for the first time, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profitability, and revenue exceeded $10 billion for the third consecutive quarter.</b></p><p>Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a 98% year-over-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $11.36 billion.<b>Revenue was $1 billion higher than the first quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter that it has exceeded the $10 billion mark.</b>Adjusted EPS was $1.45 per share, significantly higher than the market expectation of $0.97.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d1f376d6afedd7259685403dce4ef7\" tg-width=\"1460\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Net income under GAAP for the quarter was $1.14 billion, marking the first time in the company's history that it exceeded the $1 billion mark, a tenfold increase year-over-year.</b>(A growth of nearly 1000%), exceeding market expectations of $650 million and breaking the all-time record of $438 million in the first quarter. Non-GAAP net income has exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive quarters, and the first quarter of this year marked the first time it has surpassed this figure.</p><p><b>This not only represents Tesla's record quarterly profit, but also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of positive profitability.</b>Analysts say this means the company has largely avoided the adverse effects of chip shortages that would limit the global automotive industry.<b>。</b>Last year, driven by China, one of the world's largest electric vehicle markets, Tesla achieved its first full-year profit in company history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b58120cc5b599f6674d4d3786ad437\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's operating profit exceeded $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 301%, four times the $327 million in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of $835 million. The operating profit margin was 11%, a surge of 555 basis points (5.55%) year-on-year.</p><p>The GAAP gross profit margin of the main automotive business rose to 28.4%, up 300 basis points from 25.4% in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of 25%. Excluding regulatory credit, the gross profit margin of automobiles was 25.8%, up more than 300 basis points quarter-on-quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2017.</p><p><b>Bitcoin reported $23 million in related impairment losses, warning that parts supply will have a significant impact on this year's delivery growth rate.</b></p><p>The company stated that the year-over-year increase in operating profit was due to increased auto sales and lower costs, but was partially offset by increased operating expenses, including CEO Elon Musk's increased stock-based compensation plan, negative profits in the division due to the Model S/X high-end Model redesign, and additional supply chain costs.<b>Decreased revenue from the sale of regulatory credit, as well as a $23 million impairment loss related to Bitcoin, etc.</b>。 As of the end of the first quarter, Tesla had stated that it still held $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>In the second quarter, Tesla recorded free cash flow of $619 million, more than double market expectations, but $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments reduced its cash and cash equivalents held by $912 million at the end of the quarter to $16.2 billion. The company stated that it has sufficient liquidity to support its product roadmap and expects its operating profit margin to increase to an industry-leading level as capacity expansion and localized production proceed.</p><p><b>It's worth noting that Tesla still expects vehicle deliveries to grow at an average annual rate of 50% within a few years.</b>When releasing its first-quarter report in April, it reiterated this commitment, which it had upheld since January.<b>However, the company also warned that growth may be faster in some years, such as this year. Bloomberg reports that this means Tesla's delivery guidance this year may be higher than market expectations.</b>：</p><p>\"The growth rate will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capabilities and stability of our supply chain.\"<b>With global automotive demand reaching record levels, parts supply will have a significant impact on our delivery growth rate for the remainder of the year.</b>。 Supply chain challenges, particularly global semiconductor shortages and port congestion, persisted in the second quarter.<b>Model Y production in Texas and Germany remains on track this year, with Shanghai becoming a major hub for automobile exports. Regulatory credit income has fallen to 30% of net income.</b></p><p>Regarding new product launches, Tesla still believes it can build its first Model Y compact SUV this year at its Gigafactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas. Given this priority, coupled with limited battery supply and global supply chain challenges, the company has postponed the launch of its semi-trailer truck, the Tesla Semi, until next year. The all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, will be launched after the Model Y is completed at its Texas plant.</p><p>Tesla also stated:</p><p>\"Model S production at plants in California and Texas has increased and is expected to continue to improve throughout the remainder of 2021; most Model 3/Y vehicles are delivered in the North American market. The Shanghai plant in China has been slightly disrupted due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, but production activity remains very strong, and Shanghai is now a major hub for automobile exports.\" The Berlin plant in Germany continues to install equipment and has begun testing tools in hopes of starting production as soon as possible.<b>Analysts also noted that Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the second quarter of this year \"became more normalized,\" falling to $354 million quarter-over-quarter.</b>It accounts for only 30% of GAAP net income. Before the financial report, some analysts said that if net income could surpass regulatory credit income, it would be an important milestone for the company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd5fe1ff805784026f2ab4b08cfbdce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits reached $518 million, exceeding GAAP net income for several consecutive quarters (a record high of $438 million at the time) and accounting for the vast majority of operating income ($594 million at the time), a measure of the company's profitability.</p><p>Critics say this means that this revenue will continue to be a key driver of Tesla's profitability, and the company will incur losses simply by selling cars. The first quarter of this year marked not only the seventh consecutive quarter that Tesla had been profitable, but also the sixth consecutive quarter that it had been unable to make a profit without regulating credit sales.</p><p>Because Tesla is producing more zero-emission vehicles than its quota, it can sell the excess credits to automakers; otherwise, these competitors would manufacture vehicles below the requirements of global regulators and face huge refunds. Throughout 2020, Tesla generated nearly $1.6 billion in revenue from selling such credits, three times its $594 million revenue in 2019. Pessimists believe that as more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle market, the demand for Tesla's excess regulatory credit will decrease, thereby impacting its profits.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price has fallen nearly 7% this year, citing concerns about the impact of global factory openings, semiconductor shortages, and intensified competition.</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price surged more than eightfold last year, making it one of the best-performing U.S. stocks in 2020. As of Monday's close, it has fallen about 7% ($705.67) year-to-date in 2021, far less than the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have risen nearly 18% and 15% respectively during the same period.</p><p>Tesla's stock price has still doubled in the past 12 months.<b>However, it has fallen nearly 27% from the all-time high of $900.40 on January 25, entering a technical bear market. Analysts say this is due to increased regulatory scrutiny of vehicle safety and more intense competition in the global electric vehicle sector.</b>。</p><p>In early July, Tesla announced that it delivered 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, marking the first time in the company's history that single-quarter deliveries exceeded 200,000 and breaking the first-quarter delivery record. This represented an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase and a surge of 121% year-on-year, bringing the stock price back to $700 for the first time in two months. The company produced 206,400 vehicles that quarter, including 204,000 Model 3 and Model Y compact SUVs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6acfbe781e50535f5c9a17e04387f316\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors are focusing on Tesla's progress in opening new factories in more parts of the world, the specific impact of the semiconductor shortage amid the pandemic on the automotive industry and the company, and how it will adapt to the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle sector. In its first-quarter report released in April, the company reiterated that deliveries would grow at an average annual rate of 50% over the next few years, but also warned that the growth rate would depend on equipment capacity, operational efficiency and supply chain stability.</p><p>Tesla stated in April that it still expects to deliver the first cars assembled at its Austin Gigafactory in Texas and its Berlin Gigafactory in Germany by the end of this year. Musk also hopes to deliver the first all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, and a semi-trailer truck, which was delayed by two years, this year.</p><p>Musk expects the Cybertruck all-electric pickup truck to enter mass production in 2022, with the current focus on completing the construction of the Texas Gigafactory, which will be mainly used to produce the model. Recent reports also indicate that the Tesla Semi semi-trailer truck will soon begin production in Nevada, USA.</p><p>In May, he acknowledged that Tesla was affected by parts shortages and rising prices in the second quarter, and that the company was revising some designs to address these challenges. He added that electric vehicle prices have increased at least six times this year due to \"supply chain pressures across the entire automotive industry, especially raw materials.\" RBC analyst Joseph Spak once believed that the impact of supply shortages on Tesla may be reflected in its second-quarter report.</p><p><b>Tesla is updating its high-end models and will open its charging network to other electric vehicles by the end of the year. Bitcoin' holdings are considered high-risk.</b></p><p>To maintain its leading position in electric vehicles, Tesla is planning to build a new factory in India and advance a plan to produce batteries internally, as well as striving to update its high-end models to make them more profitable. Deliveries of the enhanced Model S Plaid luxury sedan began in June this year, and the redesigned Model X SUV is also under development and is expected to open for pre-order next year. Both models have been impacted by declining sales in recent years.</p><p>Tesla recently added a subscription service model that allows users to access upgraded versions of its advanced driver assistance systems for $199 per month without having to pay $10,000 upfront, lowering the barrier to entry for customers while generating more stable recurring income.</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk revealed on social media last week that Tesla will open its Supercharger network to other electric vehicles later this year. Investors are closely monitoring such business developments, as they will be crucial to the company's financial reports. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out that Tesla's charging revenue is \"conservatively estimated\" to be $2.9 billion by 2023, not including charging revenue from non-Tesla vehicles.</p><p>According to Electrek, an automotive news blog that supports Tesla,<b>Investors' focus remains on \"growth,\" meaning Tesla needs to increase production capacity and ensure battery supply.</b>：</p><p>Details such as updates to Tesla's new 4680 battery production, new 420-watt solar panels and the sale of more hardware to third-party installers, how open charging networks will affect Tesla's ownership experience, and progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) are all highlights of the financial report. In addition, Tesla's holdings in Bitcoin have also attracted much attention. In February of this year, the company disclosed that it spent $1.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin, and in April it sold a portion of its holdings, resulting in a net profit of $101 million in the first quarter. In May, Musk suddenly announced that he would not accept payments from Bitcoin, and last week he said that Tesla might reinstate Bitcoin as a payment method if green electricity accounts for more than half of the mining in Bitcoin.</p><p>Critics believe this further proves that Tesla cannot make money by selling cars alone, and the Bitcoin deal has also made some investors nervous, as Bitcoin fell nearly 41% in the second quarter, the largest second-quarter percentage drop in history, mainly due to stricter regulatory crackdowns in countries such as the United States and China. Prior to the second quarter, Bitcoin had risen for four consecutive quarters, during which prices increased sixfold to nearly $60,000. The drop in Bitcoin prices may also lead to some investment losses in Tesla's second-quarter report. On Monday, Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time since June.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Q2 net revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time! Hints at raising this year's delivery guidelines\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Monday, July 26, Eastern Time, after the US stock market closed, Tesla, the world's largest automaker by market capitalization and electric vehicle giant, released its second-quarter earnings report, kicking off the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season for US stocks.</p><p>Tesla rose nearly 3% in after-hours trading due to better-than-expected quarterly revenue, record-high net income, and eight consecutive quarters of profitability. The stock closed up 2.2% on Monday at $657.62. Since releasing its financial report on April 26, Tesla's stock has fallen by nearly 11%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3405b2d73e47a1871dbe3cc47eb1fc\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Second-quarter GAAP net income exceeded $1 billion for the first time, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of profitability, and revenue exceeded $10 billion for the third consecutive quarter.</b></p><p>Financial reports show that Tesla's revenue in the second quarter of 2021 was $11.96 billion, a 98% year-over-year increase, exceeding analysts' expectations of $11.36 billion.<b>Revenue was $1 billion higher than the first quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter that it has exceeded the $10 billion mark.</b>Adjusted EPS was $1.45 per share, significantly higher than the market expectation of $0.97.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d1f376d6afedd7259685403dce4ef7\" tg-width=\"1460\" tg-height=\"751\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Net income under GAAP for the quarter was $1.14 billion, marking the first time in the company's history that it exceeded the $1 billion mark, a tenfold increase year-over-year.</b>(A growth of nearly 1000%), exceeding market expectations of $650 million and breaking the all-time record of $438 million in the first quarter. Non-GAAP net income has exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive quarters, and the first quarter of this year marked the first time it has surpassed this figure.</p><p><b>This not only represents Tesla's record quarterly profit, but also marks the eighth consecutive quarter of positive profitability.</b>Analysts say this means the company has largely avoided the adverse effects of chip shortages that would limit the global automotive industry.<b>。</b>Last year, driven by China, one of the world's largest electric vehicle markets, Tesla achieved its first full-year profit in company history.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b58120cc5b599f6674d4d3786ad437\" tg-width=\"475\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla's operating profit exceeded $1.3 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 301%, four times the $327 million in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of $835 million. The operating profit margin was 11%, a surge of 555 basis points (5.55%) year-on-year.</p><p>The GAAP gross profit margin of the main automotive business rose to 28.4%, up 300 basis points from 25.4% in the same period last year, and higher than the market expectation of 25%. Excluding regulatory credit, the gross profit margin of automobiles was 25.8%, up more than 300 basis points quarter-on-quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2017.</p><p><b>Bitcoin reported $23 million in related impairment losses, warning that parts supply will have a significant impact on this year's delivery growth rate.</b></p><p>The company stated that the year-over-year increase in operating profit was due to increased auto sales and lower costs, but was partially offset by increased operating expenses, including CEO Elon Musk's increased stock-based compensation plan, negative profits in the division due to the Model S/X high-end Model redesign, and additional supply chain costs.<b>Decreased revenue from the sale of regulatory credit, as well as a $23 million impairment loss related to Bitcoin, etc.</b>。 As of the end of the first quarter, Tesla had stated that it still held $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.</p><p>In the second quarter, Tesla recorded free cash flow of $619 million, more than double market expectations, but $1.6 billion in net debt and finance lease repayments reduced its cash and cash equivalents held by $912 million at the end of the quarter to $16.2 billion. The company stated that it has sufficient liquidity to support its product roadmap and expects its operating profit margin to increase to an industry-leading level as capacity expansion and localized production proceed.</p><p><b>It's worth noting that Tesla still expects vehicle deliveries to grow at an average annual rate of 50% within a few years.</b>When releasing its first-quarter report in April, it reiterated this commitment, which it had upheld since January.<b>However, the company also warned that growth may be faster in some years, such as this year. Bloomberg reports that this means Tesla's delivery guidance this year may be higher than market expectations.</b>：</p><p>\"The growth rate will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency, and the capabilities and stability of our supply chain.\"<b>With global automotive demand reaching record levels, parts supply will have a significant impact on our delivery growth rate for the remainder of the year.</b>。 Supply chain challenges, particularly global semiconductor shortages and port congestion, persisted in the second quarter.<b>Model Y production in Texas and Germany remains on track this year, with Shanghai becoming a major hub for automobile exports. Regulatory credit income has fallen to 30% of net income.</b></p><p>Regarding new product launches, Tesla still believes it can build its first Model Y compact SUV this year at its Gigafactories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas. Given this priority, coupled with limited battery supply and global supply chain challenges, the company has postponed the launch of its semi-trailer truck, the Tesla Semi, until next year. The all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, will be launched after the Model Y is completed at its Texas plant.</p><p>Tesla also stated:</p><p>\"Model S production at plants in California and Texas has increased and is expected to continue to improve throughout the remainder of 2021; most Model 3/Y vehicles are delivered in the North American market. The Shanghai plant in China has been slightly disrupted due to supply chain challenges and factory upgrades, but production activity remains very strong, and Shanghai is now a major hub for automobile exports.\" The Berlin plant in Germany continues to install equipment and has begun testing tools in hopes of starting production as soon as possible.<b>Analysts also noted that Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits in the second quarter of this year \"became more normalized,\" falling to $354 million quarter-over-quarter.</b>It accounts for only 30% of GAAP net income. Before the financial report, some analysts said that if net income could surpass regulatory credit income, it would be an important milestone for the company.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd5fe1ff805784026f2ab4b08cfbdce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter, Tesla's revenue from the sale of regulatory credits reached $518 million, exceeding GAAP net income for several consecutive quarters (a record high of $438 million at the time) and accounting for the vast majority of operating income ($594 million at the time), a measure of the company's profitability.</p><p>Critics say this means that this revenue will continue to be a key driver of Tesla's profitability, and the company will incur losses simply by selling cars. The first quarter of this year marked not only the seventh consecutive quarter that Tesla had been profitable, but also the sixth consecutive quarter that it had been unable to make a profit without regulating credit sales.</p><p>Because Tesla is producing more zero-emission vehicles than its quota, it can sell the excess credits to automakers; otherwise, these competitors would manufacture vehicles below the requirements of global regulators and face huge refunds. Throughout 2020, Tesla generated nearly $1.6 billion in revenue from selling such credits, three times its $594 million revenue in 2019. Pessimists believe that as more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle market, the demand for Tesla's excess regulatory credit will decrease, thereby impacting its profits.</p><p><b>Tesla's stock price has fallen nearly 7% this year, citing concerns about the impact of global factory openings, semiconductor shortages, and intensified competition.</b></p><p>Tesla's stock price surged more than eightfold last year, making it one of the best-performing U.S. stocks in 2020. As of Monday's close, it has fallen about 7% ($705.67) year-to-date in 2021, far less than the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, which have risen nearly 18% and 15% respectively during the same period.</p><p>Tesla's stock price has still doubled in the past 12 months.<b>However, it has fallen nearly 27% from the all-time high of $900.40 on January 25, entering a technical bear market. Analysts say this is due to increased regulatory scrutiny of vehicle safety and more intense competition in the global electric vehicle sector.</b>。</p><p>In early July, Tesla announced that it delivered 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, marking the first time in the company's history that single-quarter deliveries exceeded 200,000 and breaking the first-quarter delivery record. This represented an 8% quarter-on-quarter increase and a surge of 121% year-on-year, bringing the stock price back to $700 for the first time in two months. The company produced 206,400 vehicles that quarter, including 204,000 Model 3 and Model Y compact SUVs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6acfbe781e50535f5c9a17e04387f316\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Investors are focusing on Tesla's progress in opening new factories in more parts of the world, the specific impact of the semiconductor shortage amid the pandemic on the automotive industry and the company, and how it will adapt to the increasingly fierce competition in the electric vehicle sector. In its first-quarter report released in April, the company reiterated that deliveries would grow at an average annual rate of 50% over the next few years, but also warned that the growth rate would depend on equipment capacity, operational efficiency and supply chain stability.</p><p>Tesla stated in April that it still expects to deliver the first cars assembled at its Austin Gigafactory in Texas and its Berlin Gigafactory in Germany by the end of this year. Musk also hopes to deliver the first all-electric pickup truck, the Cybertruck, and a semi-trailer truck, which was delayed by two years, this year.</p><p>Musk expects the Cybertruck all-electric pickup truck to enter mass production in 2022, with the current focus on completing the construction of the Texas Gigafactory, which will be mainly used to produce the model. Recent reports also indicate that the Tesla Semi semi-trailer truck will soon begin production in Nevada, USA.</p><p>In May, he acknowledged that Tesla was affected by parts shortages and rising prices in the second quarter, and that the company was revising some designs to address these challenges. He added that electric vehicle prices have increased at least six times this year due to \"supply chain pressures across the entire automotive industry, especially raw materials.\" RBC analyst Joseph Spak once believed that the impact of supply shortages on Tesla may be reflected in its second-quarter report.</p><p><b>Tesla is updating its high-end models and will open its charging network to other electric vehicles by the end of the year. Bitcoin' holdings are considered high-risk.</b></p><p>To maintain its leading position in electric vehicles, Tesla is planning to build a new factory in India and advance a plan to produce batteries internally, as well as striving to update its high-end models to make them more profitable. Deliveries of the enhanced Model S Plaid luxury sedan began in June this year, and the redesigned Model X SUV is also under development and is expected to open for pre-order next year. Both models have been impacted by declining sales in recent years.</p><p>Tesla recently added a subscription service model that allows users to access upgraded versions of its advanced driver assistance systems for $199 per month without having to pay $10,000 upfront, lowering the barrier to entry for customers while generating more stable recurring income.</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk revealed on social media last week that Tesla will open its Supercharger network to other electric vehicles later this year. Investors are closely monitoring such business developments, as they will be crucial to the company's financial reports. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas pointed out that Tesla's charging revenue is \"conservatively estimated\" to be $2.9 billion by 2023, not including charging revenue from non-Tesla vehicles.</p><p>According to Electrek, an automotive news blog that supports Tesla,<b>Investors' focus remains on \"growth,\" meaning Tesla needs to increase production capacity and ensure battery supply.</b>：</p><p>Details such as updates to Tesla's new 4680 battery production, new 420-watt solar panels and the sale of more hardware to third-party installers, how open charging networks will affect Tesla's ownership experience, and progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) are all highlights of the financial report. In addition, Tesla's holdings in Bitcoin have also attracted much attention. In February of this year, the company disclosed that it spent $1.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin, and in April it sold a portion of its holdings, resulting in a net profit of $101 million in the first quarter. In May, Musk suddenly announced that he would not accept payments from Bitcoin, and last week he said that Tesla might reinstate Bitcoin as a payment method if green electricity accounts for more than half of the mining in Bitcoin.</p><p>Critics believe this further proves that Tesla cannot make money by selling cars alone, and the Bitcoin deal has also made some investors nervous, as Bitcoin fell nearly 41% in the second quarter, the largest second-quarter percentage drop in history, mainly due to stricter regulatory crackdowns in countries such as the United States and China. Prior to the second quarter, Bitcoin had risen for four consecutive quarters, during which prices increased sixfold to nearly $60,000. The drop in Bitcoin prices may also lead to some investment losses in Tesla's second-quarter report. On Monday, Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time since June.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151266467","content_text":"美东时间7月26日周一美股盘后，全球市值最大的汽车制造商、电动汽车巨头特斯拉公布了二季报，开启美股二季度财报季最繁忙的一周。\n由于季度营收好于预期，净收入创新高且连续八个季度实现盈利，特斯拉盘后一度涨近3%。周一该股收涨2.2%，报657.62美元。自4月26日公布财报以来，特斯拉累跌近11%。二季度GAAP净收入首次突破10亿美元，连续八季盈利，营收连续三季度突破100亿\n财报显示，特斯拉在2021年第二季度营收119.6亿美元，同比增长98%，高于分析师预期的113.6亿美元，比一季度营收高出10亿美元，也是连续三个季度超过100亿美元大关。调整后EPS为每股收益1.45美元，显著高于市场预期的0.97美元。当季GAAP项下净收入为11.4亿美元，是公司史上首次超过10亿美元大关，同比翻了10倍（增长近1000%），高于市场预期的6.5亿美元，并打破一季度4.38亿美元所创的史上最高盈利纪录。非GAAP净收入已连续两个季度超过10亿美元，今年一季度是首次突破这一整数位。\n这不仅代表特斯拉创下季度盈利新高，也是连续第八个季度实现正盈利。分析称，这代表公司很大程度上避免了限制全球汽车产业的芯片短缺不利影响。去年在全球最大电动车市场之一中国的带动下，特斯拉曾实现了公司历史上首个全年盈利。二季度特斯拉运营利润冲破13亿美元，同比增301%，是去年同期3.27亿美元的四倍，高于市场预期的8.35亿美元。运营利润率为11%，同比暴增555个基点（5.55%）。\n主营的汽车业务GAAP毛利率升至28.4%，较去年同期的25.4%上行300个基点，高于市场预期的25%。去除监管信用后的汽车毛利率为25.8%，按季环比升超300个基点，创2017年一季度来季度最高。\n比特币相关减值损失2300万美元，警告零部件供应对今年交付增长率有重大影响\n公司称，运营利润同比增长得益于汽车销量增长和成本下降，但部分被运营费用增长抵消，其中包括CEO马斯克基于股票的薪酬激励计划增加、Model S/X高端车型改造导致该部门负利润、额外的供应链成本、出售监管信用的收入减少，以及与比特币相关的减值损失2300万美元等。截至一季度末，特斯拉曾称还持有价值13亿美元的比特币。\n二季度，特斯拉录得较市场预期翻倍的自由现金流6.19亿美元，但16亿美元的净债务和融资租赁还款令其季末持有的现金及其等价物减少9.12亿美元，至162亿美元。公司称，有足够的流动性来支撑产品路线图，预计随着产能扩张和本地化生产进行，运营利润率将增至行业领先水平。\n值得注意的是，特斯拉仍预期汽车交付量在几年内实现50%的年均增长率，4月发布一季报时也重申了这项1月起就秉持的承诺。但公司也警告称，某些年份可能增长更快，例如今年。彭博社称，这代表今年特斯拉交付指引可能高于市场预期：\n\n “增长速度将取决于我们的设备产能、运营效率，以及供应链的能力和稳定性。 \n 随着全球汽车需求达到创纪录水平，零部件供应将对我们今年剩余时间的交付增长率产生重大影响。供应链挑战，特别是全球半导体短缺和港口拥堵，在第二季度继续存在。”\n\n今年在美国得州和德国生产Model Y仍处正轨，上海成汽车出口主要枢纽，监管信用收入回落至净收入三成\n在新品推介方面，特斯拉仍相信有望今年在德国柏林和美国得州奥斯汀的超级工厂建造第一辆Model Y紧凑型SUV。在这一优先事项的考虑下，外加电池供应有限和全球供应链挑战，公司已将半挂式卡车Tesla Semi的启动时间推迟到明年，全电动皮卡Cybertruck将在得州工厂生产完Model Y后进行。\n特斯拉还表示：\n\n “美国加州和得州工厂Model S产量提高，预计将在2021年剩余时间内继续改善；大多数Model 3/Y车辆在北美市场交付。由于供应链挑战和工厂升级的缘故，中国上海工厂略微受到干扰，但生产活动仍然非常强劲，上海现在是汽车出口的主要枢纽。德国柏林工厂继续安装设备，已经开始测试工具，以期尽快投产。”\n\n分析师还注意到，特斯拉今年二季度通过出售环境监管信用（regulatory credits）的收入“更趋正常化”，季环比降至3.54亿美元，仅占GAAP净收入的30%。财报前曾有分析师称，如果净收入能反超监管信用收入，将是公司的一个重要里程碑。一季度时，特斯拉出售监管信用的收入曾高达5.18亿美元，连续多个季度高于GAAP项下净收入（当时为创新高的4.38亿美元），并占衡量公司盈利能力的指标——运营利润（operating income）的绝大部分（当时为5.94亿美元）。\n批评人士称，这代表该项收入持续成为特斯拉盈利的关键动力，公司单纯卖车将陷入亏损。今年一季度不仅是特斯拉连续第七个季度盈利，也是连续第六个季度没有监管信用销售就无法盈利。\n由于特斯拉的零排放汽车生产量超过其配额，可以将多余的信用额出售给汽车制造商，否则这些竞争对手制造的车辆将低于全球监管机构的要求，进而面临巨额返款。2020全年，特斯拉通过出售此类信用产生了近16亿美元收入，是2019年5.94亿美元收入的三倍。唱衰人士认为，随着越来越多的传统汽车制造商进军电动车，将减少对特斯拉多余监管信用的需求，进而影响其利润。\n今年特斯拉累跌近7%，关注全球开设新厂、半导体短缺和竞争加剧的影响\n特斯拉去年股价飙升了八倍多，曾是2020年表现最好的美股之一。截至周一收盘，2021年至今累跌约7%（705.67美元），远逊于同期标普500指数大盘和道指分别累涨近18%和近15%。\n过去12个月，特斯拉仍股价翻倍，但较1月25日创下900.40美元的历史新高回落近27%，陷入技术熊市。分析称，这是由于对车辆安全的监管审查加剧，以及全球电动汽车领域竞争更激烈。\n特斯拉在7月初宣布，今年二季度交付汽车20.125万辆，是公司史上首次单季交付量超20万，并打破第一季度的交付新高，环比增长8%，同比猛增121%，令股价在两个月里首次重回700美元。当季汽车产量20.64万辆，其中包括20.4万辆“平民神车”Model 3和Model Y紧凑型SUV。\n\n投资者关注特斯拉在全球更多地区开设新工厂的进展、疫情下半导体短缺对汽车行业和该公司的具体影响，以及其如何适应电动汽车领域日益激烈的竞争。公司曾在4月发布一季报时重申，未来几年交付量年均增长率为50%，但也警告称，增长率取决于设备产能、运营效率和供应链稳定。\n特斯拉曾在4月表示，仍有望今年底前交付在美国得州奥斯汀超级工厂以及德国柏林超级工厂组装的第一批汽车，马斯克还希望今年交付第一辆全电动皮卡Cybertruck和延迟两年的半挂卡车。\n马斯克预计Cybertruck全电动皮卡将在2022年进入量产，当前重点是完成建设主要用来生产该车型的美国得州超级工厂。近日还有消息称，半挂卡车Tesla Semi即将在美国内华达州投产。\n5月时他承认特斯拉在第二季度受到零部件短缺和价格上涨的影响，公司正在修改一些设计以面对这些挑战，而电动车今年至少提价六次，是“由于整个汽车行业特别是原材料的供应链压力”。RBC分析师Joseph Spak曾认为，供应短缺对特斯拉的影响可能二季报中具体体现出来。\n特斯拉正更新高端车型，年底开放充电网络给其他电动车，比特币持仓被指高风险\n为了保持电动车领先地位，特斯拉正规划在印度建设新工厂并推进一项内部生产电池的计划，以及努力更新盈利能力更强的高端车型。今年6月开始交付豪华轿车加强版Model S Plaid，改造后的SUV Model X也正在研发中，预计明年开放预定，这两款车型近年来受到销量下滑的冲击。\n特斯拉最近还新增订阅服务模式，用户可以每月199美元的价格访问其高级驾驶辅助系统的升级版本，而不用预付1万美元进行升级，在降低客户入门门槛的同时获得更稳定的经常性收入。\n同时，马斯克上周在社交媒体透露，今年晚些时候特斯拉将向其他电动汽车开放超级充电站网络。投资者密切关注此类业务动态，因为将对公司财报至关重要。摩根士丹利分析师Adam Jonas指出，到2023年“保守估计”特斯拉充电收入为29亿美元，尚未包括非特斯拉汽车带来的充电收入。\n据支持特斯拉的汽车新闻博客Electrek总结，投资者关注重点仍是“增长”，这意味着特斯拉需要增加产能并确保电池供应：\n\n 特斯拉4680新型电池生产的更新、新的420瓦太阳能电池板及向第三方安装商销售更多硬件、开放充电网络如何影响特斯拉的拥有体验、全自动驾驶FSD的进展等细节，都是财报重头戏。\n\n此外，特斯拉的比特币持仓也备受关注。今年2月公司披露花费15亿美元购买比特币，4月出售一部分持仓，令一季度从中获利1.01亿美元净收入。5月马斯克突然宣布不接受比特币付款，上周他又称，如果比特币挖矿使用的绿色电力占比过半，特斯拉可能恢复比特币作为支付手段。\n批评人士认为，这进一步证明特斯拉仅靠卖车不能挣钱，比特币交易也让一些投资者感到紧张，因为比特币在二季度下跌近41%，创史上最大二季度百分比跌幅，主要受中美等国监管从严打击。在二季度之前，比特币曾连续四个季度走高，期间价格翻了六倍至接近6万美元。比特币跌价，也可能令特斯拉二季报因此录得一些账面投资损失。周一，比特币自6月以来首次涨穿4万美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
