StephenC personal page - To The Moon

StephenC

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2021-04-29

Bitcoin will make it

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2021-04-14

To the moon ?

Coinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto

2021-05-11

Hope NIO one day can shine & grow

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2021-05-02

Hmmm

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2021-04-30

Wow

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2021-04-28

Awesome

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2021-04-05

Bubble

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2021-05-03

Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent & Alibaba & some Chinese govt regulation issues ?

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2021-05-03

Great

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2021-04-14

Great

Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength

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grow","listText":"Hope NIO one day can shine &amp; grow","text":"Hope NIO one day can shine & grow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199855235","repostId":"2134651681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108680506,"gmtCreate":1620018323405,"gmtModify":1704337460286,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent &amp; Alibaba &amp; some Chinese govt&nbsp;regulation issues ?","listText":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent &amp; Alibaba &amp; some Chinese govt&nbsp;regulation issues ?","text":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent & Alibaba & some Chinese govt regulation issues ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108680506","repostId":"1121605010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121605010","pubTimestamp":1620014543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121605010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121605010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&amp;P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.</li>\n <li>Fortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.</li>\n <li>Baidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.</li>\n <li>In recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.</li>\n <li>I recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce5597f98f5e2431c73edea32173192\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"693\"><span>Photo by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Over seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.</p>\n<p><b>Greatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Name</b></td>\n   <td><b>Returns</b></td>\n   <td><b>Time Horizon</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Most Famous For</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Jim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)</td>\n   <td>71.8% CAGR</td>\n   <td>1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)</td>\n   <td><p>Pure Quant Based Investing</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Joel Greenblatt</td>\n   <td>40% CAGR</td>\n   <td>21 years at Gotham Capital</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Peter Lynch</td>\n   <td>29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund</td>\n   <td>1977 to 1990 (13 years)</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)</td>\n   <td>22.8% CAGR and beat the S&amp;P 500 for 15 consecutive years</td>\n   <td>16 years</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Warren Buffett</td>\n   <td>20.8% CAGR at Berkshire</td>\n   <td>55 Years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Greedy when others are fearful</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Benjamin Graham</td>\n   <td>20% CAGR vs 12% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>1934 to 1956 (22 years)</td>\n   <td><b>Margin of Safety</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Edward Thorp</td>\n   <td>20+% CAGR</td>\n   <td>over 30 years</td>\n   <td><p>invented card counting,<b>pure statistically-based investing</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Charlie Munger</td>\n   <td>19.80%</td>\n   <td>1962 to 1975</td>\n   <td><p><b>Wonderful companies at fair prices</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Howard Marks</td>\n   <td>19% CAGR</td>\n   <td>Since 1995</td>\n   <td><p><b>Valuation Mean Reversion</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Anne Scheiber</td>\n   <td>18.3% CAGR</td>\n   <td>50 years</td>\n   <td><p>Turned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely with<b>tax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing</b>.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>John Templeton</td>\n   <td>300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992</td>\n   <td>38 years</td>\n   <td>Market Cycles</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Carl Icahn</td>\n   <td>14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td><p>2001 to 2016 (15 Years)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>David Swenson</td>\n   <td>13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>30 years</td>\n   <td><p>Alternative Asset Allocation</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Geraldine Weiss</td>\n   <td>11.2% vs 9.8% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>37 years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Best risk-adjusted track record</b>of any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularized<b>dividend yield theory</b>(the only strategy she employed)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Combining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Portfolio risk-management</li>\n <li>safety</li>\n <li>quality</li>\n <li>yield</li>\n <li>growth</li>\n <li>and value</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.</p>\n<p>You and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.</p>\n<blockquote>\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n</blockquote>\n<p>These are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.</p>\n<p>Today I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78b7d254783a9f8afc60962aa7d03ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>All Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>Institutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c272fe0a5f7a5052ea3021630d643\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Lowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.</p>\n<p>In other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.</p>\n<p>So let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Reason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company</b></p>\n<p>According to the 2017 study<i>Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?</i>by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.</p>\n<p>This study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f826f65373ae3a2e4061f906c54bb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868a6e0418dbe8596b0c667120b3a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\"><span>(Source: Bessembinder et al)</span></p>\n<p>From 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.</p>\n<p>In other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.</p>\n<p>The Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering</p>\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Our model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p>\n<p>Every metric was selected based on</p>\n<ul>\n <li>decades of empirical data</li>\n <li>the experience of the greatest investors in history</li>\n <li>eight rating agencies</li>\n <li>and what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend Kings Quality Rating System</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Quality Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Meaning</b></td>\n   <td><b>Max Invested Capital Risk Recommendation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Very Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Ultra-Value Buy</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3</td>\n   <td>Terrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4</td>\n   <td>Very Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6</td>\n   <td>Below-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)</td>\n   <td>1%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7</td>\n   <td>Average (Relative to S&amp;P 500)</td>\n   <td>2.5%</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8</td>\n   <td>Above-Average</td>\n   <td>5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td>45% to 50%</td>\n   <td><p>55% to 60%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>9</b></td>\n   <td><b>Blue-Chip</b></td>\n   <td>7% (unless<b>speculative</b>then<b>2.5%</b>)</td>\n   <td>20% to<b>25%</b></td>\n   <td>30% to<b>35%</b></td>\n   <td>40% to<b>45%</b></td>\n   <td><p>50% to<b>55%</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10</td>\n   <td>SWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td><p>45% to 50%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11</td>\n   <td>Super SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>10% to 15%</td>\n   <td>20% to 25%</td>\n   <td>30% to 35%</td>\n   <td><p>40% to 45%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12</td>\n   <td>Ultra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>5% to 10%</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td><p>35% to 40%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>What exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?</p>\n<p><b>Balance Sheet Safety</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1 (very unsafe)</td>\n   <td>0% to 20%</td>\n   <td>over 4%</td>\n   <td>16+%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2 (unsafe average)</td>\n   <td>21% to 40%</td>\n   <td>over 2%</td>\n   <td>8% to 16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3 (average)</td>\n   <td>41% to 60%</td>\n   <td>2%</td>\n   <td>4% to 8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>4 (safe)</b></td>\n   <td><b>61% to 80%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1%</b></td>\n   <td><b>2% to 4%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n   <td>81% to 100%</td>\n   <td>0.5%</td>\n   <td>1% to 2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>76%</b></td>\n   <td><b>A stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's</b></td>\n   <td><b>0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Company</b></td>\n   <td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Interpretation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Points</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n   <td>58%</td>\n   <td>Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>31% or below</td>\n   <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n   <td>1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>32% to 70%</td>\n   <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>71% to 80%</td>\n   <td>Very Dependable</td>\n   <td>3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>81% or higher</td>\n   <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n   <td>4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>67%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Above-Average Dependability</b></td>\n   <td><b>2</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Overall Quality</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>Final Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Safety</td>\n   <td>76%</td>\n   <td>4/5</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Business Model</td>\n   <td>80%</td>\n   <td>3/3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Dependability</td>\n   <td>67%</td>\n   <td>2/4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Total</b></td>\n   <td><b>73%</b></td>\n   <td><b>9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Baidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927ef17638b4bbf9db4e34f1aeb01a61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>green = potentially good buy or better</li>\n <li>blue = potentially reasonable buy</li>\n <li>yellow = hold</li>\n <li>red = potential trim/sell</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including</p>\n<ul>\n <li>all dividend champions</li>\n <li>all dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>all dividend kings</li>\n <li>all 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)</li>\n <li>numerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Qualcomm (QCOM)</li>\n <li>Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>W. P. Carey (WPC)</li>\n <li>Sonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion</li>\n <li>H.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king</li>\n <li>MetLife (MET)</li>\n <li>Digital Realty Trust (DLR)</li>\n <li>Leggett &amp; Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>V.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Bank of New York Mellon (BK)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c7bc8d9da039967a0ce9e435f7b6eb\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Including leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.</p>\n<p>Fitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.</p>\n<p>The key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>F-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>Z-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)</li>\n <li>M-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.</p>\n<p>And the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0593cdfc392caf38a9d7ca42c482c359\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110ac3a73c5c935e0778da21e6eb62e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>its safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.</p>\n<p>Combined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.</p>\n<p>Quality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4868372d29cef8d5b07fc5a538fb58e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"></p>\n<p>On Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>credit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c8a6a2913d554a5c9780f869d7a887\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><b>Major Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Margin</td>\n   <td>67.35</td>\n   <td>177</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Net Margin</td>\n   <td>81.26</td>\n   <td>102</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Equity</td>\n   <td>67.86</td>\n   <td>175</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Assets</td>\n   <td>68.47</td>\n   <td>171</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Capital</td>\n   <td>69.61</td>\n   <td>165</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>70.91</b></td>\n   <td><b>158</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</i></p>\n<p>Over the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>for example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Joel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>operating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Greenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d43fa9d5032a24362f75054f2a9e93\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Even with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.</p>\n<p>The average Master List company has 88% ROC.</p>\n<p>The average aristocrat 83%.</p>\n<p>The average Ultra SWAN 87%.</p>\n<p>Over the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.</p>\n<p>A level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.</p>\n<p>Baidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>SG&amp;A</b></td>\n   <td><b>R&amp;D</b></td>\n   <td><b>Capex</b></td>\n   <td><b>Total Growth Spending</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Growth Spending/Sales</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$2,792</td>\n   <td>$3,016</td>\n   <td>$993</td>\n   <td>$4,009</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>24.23%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$3,574</td>\n   <td>$3,554</td>\n   <td>$1,893</td>\n   <td>$5,447</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>27.91%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$3,974</td>\n   <td>$4,062</td>\n   <td>$2,220</td>\n   <td>$6,282</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>28.25%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$5,049</td>\n   <td>$5,858</td>\n   <td>$2,719</td>\n   <td>$8,577</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>33.96%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$1,504</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2025</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2026</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>21.83%</b></td>\n   <td><b>24.77%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.94%</b></td>\n   <td><b>28.85%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>NA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Historically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.</p>\n<p>Total growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Profit Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating Income)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Income</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>$2,106</td>\n   <td>$4,251</td>\n   <td>$2,216</td>\n   <td>$3,473</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>$3,947</td>\n   <td>$4,734</td>\n   <td>$2,629</td>\n   <td>$2,760</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>$5,013</td>\n   <td>$5,812</td>\n   <td>$3,400</td>\n   <td>$3,381</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>$5,854</td>\n   <td>$6,730</td>\n   <td>$4,163</td>\n   <td>$4,226</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>$7,421</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$6,195</td>\n   <td>$5,268</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>37.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.55%</b></td>\n   <td><b>29.31%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.98%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Management's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Margin Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating) Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Margin</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>12.7%</td>\n   <td>25.7%</td>\n   <td>13.4%</td>\n   <td>21.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>20.2%</td>\n   <td>24.3%</td>\n   <td>13.5%</td>\n   <td>14.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>22.5%</td>\n   <td>26.1%</td>\n   <td>15.3%</td>\n   <td>15.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>23.2%</td>\n   <td>26.6%</td>\n   <td>16.5%</td>\n   <td>16.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>24.7%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>20.6%</td>\n   <td>17.5%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>18.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.23%</b></td>\n   <td><b>11.37%</b></td>\n   <td><b>-4.42%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8691866fef56c1dd17062657e10811\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>That may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Actual Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>2023 consensus growth</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EPS</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n   <td>18%</td>\n   <td>16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n   <td>124%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>-14%</td>\n   <td>59%</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free cash flow</td>\n   <td>96%</td>\n   <td>85%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>-18%</td>\n   <td>53%</td>\n   <td>27%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>130%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>19%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>In the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfa536609dc32efe57d7af85154ddbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a582df968d9cfaf4a09f2f2984f522\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ab775d253a2fbce4a1a5001922e0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range</li>\n <li>6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae4ef54819e7f58c95b2f21ced20393\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705d5218e7d882c4c52948d4f47fbb5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"></p>\n<p>The margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside</li>\n <li>the long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR</li>\n <li>the margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c38a8847c12ffd67928559c978ff18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>and thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon</li>\n</ul>\n<p>However, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.</p>\n<p>And at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3ad1e7e41458b1bdc4f379d7917692\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd2ab20e70f34f53bc7768feb9b6a24\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.</p>\n<p>EV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.</p>\n<p>Baidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Historical Fair Value (12-years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022</b></td>\n   <td><b>2023</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Earnings</td>\n   <td>25.0</td>\n   <td>$243.87</td>\n   <td>$261.27</td>\n   <td>$307.91</td>\n   <td>$357.77</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr</td>\n   <td>23.5</td>\n   <td>$324.46</td>\n   <td>$394.46</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>19.9</td>\n   <td>$202.33</td>\n   <td>$321.22</td>\n   <td>$420.37</td>\n   <td>$448.64</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free Cash Flow (11-yr)</td>\n   <td>27.5</td>\n   <td>$220.77</td>\n   <td>$408.53</td>\n   <td>$497.28</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>22.0</td>\n   <td>$190.60</td>\n   <td>$291.18</td>\n   <td>$370.80</td>\n   <td>$459.36</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>34.5</td>\n   <td>$207.78</td>\n   <td>$261.14</td>\n   <td>$328.78</td>\n   <td>$392.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>$224.60</b></td>\n   <td><b>$312.71</b></td>\n   <td><b>$373.81</b></td>\n   <td><b>$410.40</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Current Price</td>\n   <td>$215.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></p></td>\n   <td><b>3.91%</b></td>\n   <td><b>30.98%</b></td>\n   <td><b>42.26%</b></td>\n   <td><b>47.41%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><i><b>Upside To Fair Value</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>4%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>45%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>73%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>90%</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>BIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$350 is the median 12-month price target</li>\n <li>65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 Price</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>$224.60</td>\n   <td>$312.71</td>\n   <td>$373.81</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>25%</b></td>\n   <td><b>$168.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$234.53</b></td>\n   <td><b>$280.35</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>$145.99</td>\n   <td>$203.26</td>\n   <td>$242.97</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>$123.53</td>\n   <td>$171.99</td>\n   <td>$205.59</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>$101.07</td>\n   <td>$140.72</td>\n   <td>$168.21</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Currently</b></td>\n   <td><b>$213.41</b></td>\n   <td><b>5%</b></td>\n   <td><b>32%</b></td>\n   <td><b>43%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</p></td>\n   <td>5%</td>\n   <td>47%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>At a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.</p>\n<p>But the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential</b></p>\n<p>Here is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f5606b2eaa042608497f68998a69cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>75% total returns</li>\n <li>23.3% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs -1.3% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\n<p>From its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 78% over the next three years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be8ed919f810734d99f50b4b14741dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Corporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.</p>\n<p>Over the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aef71a5e564b122341a52dec05bb34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>179% total returns</li>\n <li>19.8% CAGR</li>\n <li>vs 4.5% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><i><b>4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential</b></i></li>\n</ul>\n<p>If BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935c135e000c240df768640b47826e5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Over the long term, analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)</li>\n <li>6% to 28% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.8% for the S&amp;P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Baidu Total Returns Since 2006</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7969e52431f689a9737c4c48401e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f72f9d45d8f32d950ea367c84cb531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40bd03cb49698c42f76664151bd05cf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"><span>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</span></p>\n<p>In the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.</p>\n<p>It's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>$1,325.65</td>\n   <td>$1,524.56</td>\n   <td>$1,336.05</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1,757.34</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,324.28</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,746.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>$2,329.62</td>\n   <td>$3,543.51</td>\n   <td>$5,644.73</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>$3,088.26</td>\n   <td>$5,402.29</td>\n   <td>$11,602.54</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>$4,093.94</td>\n   <td>$8,236.11</td>\n   <td>$23,848.60</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>$5,427.13</b></td>\n   <td><b>$12,556.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$49,019.95</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>$7,194.46</td>\n   <td>$19,143.06</td>\n   <td>$100,758.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>$9,537.33</td>\n   <td>$29,184.74</td>\n   <td>$207,106.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>$12,643.14</td>\n   <td>$44,493.88</td>\n   <td>$425,699.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>$16,760.36</b></td>\n   <td><b>$67,833.58</b></td>\n   <td><b>$875,009.10</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>The ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&amp;P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs BIDU consensus</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>1.15</td>\n   <td>1.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.32</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.56</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>1.52</td>\n   <td>2.42</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>1.75</td>\n   <td>3.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>2.01</td>\n   <td>5.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>2.31</b></td>\n   <td><b>9.03</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>2.66</td>\n   <td>14.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>3.06</td>\n   <td>21.72</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>3.52</td>\n   <td>33.67</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>4.05</b></td>\n   <td><b>52.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Over the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&amp;P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone</b></p>\n<p>There are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamental Risk Summary</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n <b>it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.</p>\n<p>Or it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Baidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Search is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.</b>Baidu is also\n <b>one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.</b>Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on&nbsp;\n <b>iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>But while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.</p>\n<p>Baidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for&nbsp;seven straight quarters.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like&nbsp;\n <b>Tencent</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;\n <b>Bilibili --</b>both expanded&nbsp;their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>In recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.</p>\n<p>It has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.</p>\n<p>This is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>compared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>and an&nbsp;$89,000 investment into Alibaba</li>\n <li>and a&nbsp;$200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.</p>\n<blockquote>\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n <b>Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights</b>&nbsp;as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.</p>\n<p>Management isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its&nbsp;\n <b>operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016</b>&nbsp;but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Baidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017</b>and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>And of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a&nbsp;\n <b>variable interest entity structure</b>&nbsp;designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n <b>We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government</b>&nbsp;and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n <b>we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights</b>.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>VIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).</p>\n<p>How do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?</p>\n<p>By turning to the expert consensus.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management</li>\n <li>and whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis</li>\n <li>2 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>3 ESG risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ESG Material Financial Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p><b>Essential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies</b></p>\n<p>According to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>BlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world</p></li>\n <li><p>MSCI - #1 indexing giant</p></li>\n <li><p>Morningstar</p></li>\n <li><p>Reuters'/Refinitiv</p></li>\n <li><p>ISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth</p></li>\n <li><p>S&amp;P</p></li>\n <li><p>Fitch</p></li>\n <li><p>Moody's</p></li>\n <li><p>DBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>AM Best (insurance industry rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>Bank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</p></li>\n <li><p>Bloomberg</p></li>\n <li><p>FactSet Research</p></li>\n <li>State Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n <b>fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.</b>\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Bank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Punchline: higher ROE, lower risk &amp; lower cost of capital</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see&nbsp;\n <b>higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a&nbsp;\n <b>~20% premium on P/E</b>&nbsp;on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n <b>higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.</b>\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\n<p>ESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating Agency</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MSCI</td>\n   <td>54.0%</td>\n   <td><p>BB Below-Average</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n   <td>40.2%</td>\n   <td><p>24.4/100 Medium Risk</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)</td>\n   <td>52.6%</td>\n   <td>Satisfactory</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>48.9%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)</i></p>\n<p>According to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>which is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks</li>\n <li>ESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa54b995a935d581ed79c58fb5d4920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464e286a82c2e31d4b5bc2a67525beb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0b24c0262471afee43fa88dfe8da44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>(Source: MSCI)</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.</p>\n<p>But note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81242ba4340325a61c591a15f1e0aed7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<p>In recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d6eec0412fa9351dcb8716bbbbc1a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5588fc730d2ccc5631369a46ea7bdd1b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3f779db4dbecb7bcc0e0880b6f4ae3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>Morningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea303ae18b648b1beee3ba4bb69b599c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)</span></p>\n<p>Reuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>BIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.</p>\n<p>The DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.</p>\n<p>A 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.</p>\n<p>However, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu</b></p>\n<p>In this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"</p>\n<p>While there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.</p>\n<p>Baidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?</p>\n<p>I think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.</p>\n<p>Barring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.</p>\n<p>And to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.</p>\n<p>I can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.</p>\n<p>For those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.</p>\n<p>Basically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1121605010","content_text":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\nFortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.\nBaidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.\nIn recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.\nI recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.\n\nPhoto by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images\nOver seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.\nGreatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science\n\n\n\n\nName\nReturns\nTime Horizon\nMost Famous For\n\n\nJim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)\n71.8% CAGR\n1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)\nPure Quant Based Investing\n\n\nJoel Greenblatt\n40% CAGR\n21 years at Gotham Capital\n\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"\n\n\nPeter Lynch\n29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund\n1977 to 1990 (13 years)\n\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"\n\n\nBill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)\n22.8% CAGR and beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years\n16 years\n\n\nWarren Buffett\n20.8% CAGR at Berkshire\n55 Years\nGreedy when others are fearful\n\n\nBenjamin Graham\n20% CAGR vs 12% S&P 500\n1934 to 1956 (22 years)\nMargin of Safety\n\n\nEdward Thorp\n20+% CAGR\nover 30 years\ninvented card counting,pure statistically-based investing\n\n\nCharlie Munger\n19.80%\n1962 to 1975\nWonderful companies at fair prices\n\n\nHoward Marks\n19% CAGR\nSince 1995\nValuation Mean Reversion\n\n\nAnne Scheiber\n18.3% CAGR\n50 years\nTurned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely withtax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing.\n\n\nJohn Templeton\n300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992\n38 years\nMarket Cycles\n\n\nCarl Icahn\n14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&P 500\n2001 to 2016 (15 Years)\n\n\nDavid Swenson\n13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&P 500\n30 years\nAlternative Asset Allocation\n\n\nGeraldine Weiss\n11.2% vs 9.8% S&P 500\n37 years\nBest risk-adjusted track recordof any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularizeddividend yield theory(the only strategy she employed)\n\n\n\nCombining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).\n\nPortfolio risk-management\nsafety\nquality\nyield\ngrowth\nand value\n\nWhen combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.\nYou and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.\n\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n\nThese are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.\nToday I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).\n\nAll Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.\n\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n\nInstitutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.\n\nLowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.\nIn other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.\nSo let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.\n\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n\n\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n\nReason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company\nAccording to the 2017 studyDo Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.\nThis study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.\n\n(Source: Bessembinder et al)\nFrom 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.\nIn other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.\nThe Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nOur model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nEvery metric was selected based on\n\ndecades of empirical data\nthe experience of the greatest investors in history\neight rating agencies\nand what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.\n\nBaidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.\nDividend Kings Quality Rating System\n\n\n\n\nQuality Score\nMeaning\nMax Invested Capital Risk Recommendation\nMargin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy\nStrong Buy\nVery Strong Buy\nUltra-Value Buy\n\n\n3\nTerrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n4\nVery Poor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n5\nPoor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n6\nBelow-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)\n1%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n75%\n\n\n7\nAverage (Relative to S&P 500)\n2.5%\n35%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n\n\n8\nAbove-Average\n5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n55% to 60%\n\n\n9\nBlue-Chip\n7% (unlessspeculativethen2.5%)\n20% to25%\n30% to35%\n40% to45%\n50% to55%\n\n\n10\nSWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n\n\n11\nSuper SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n10% to 15%\n20% to 25%\n30% to 35%\n40% to 45%\n\n\n12\nUltra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n5% to 10%\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n\n\n\nWhat exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (very unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (unsafe average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nBIDU\n76%\nA stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's\n0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n58%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n31% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n32% to 70%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n71% to 80%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n81% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nBIDU\n67%\nAbove-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\n\nBIDU\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n76%\n4/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n67%\n2/4\n\n\nTotal\n73%\n9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip\n\n\n\nBaidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score\n\ngreen = potentially good buy or better\nblue = potentially reasonable buy\nyellow = hold\nred = potential trim/sell\n\nBIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including\n\nall dividend champions\nall dividend aristocrats\nall dividend kings\nall 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)\nnumerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\n\nBIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as\n\nQualcomm (QCOM)\nBecton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat\nW. P. Carey (WPC)\nSonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion\nH.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king\nMetLife (MET)\nDigital Realty Trust (DLR)\nLeggett & Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat\nV.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat\nBank of New York Mellon (BK)\n\nBaidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nIncluding leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.\nFitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.\nAnalysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.\nThe key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.\n\nF-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk\nZ-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)\nM-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)\n\n7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.\n3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.\nAnd the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.\n\n(Source: Gurufocus)\nBIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.\n\nits safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs\n\nThe M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.\nCombined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.\nQuality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.\n\nOn Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.\n\ncredit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nBaidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n67.35\n177\n\n\nNet Margin\n81.26\n102\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n67.86\n175\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n68.47\n171\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n69.61\n165\n\n\nAverage\n70.91\n158\n\n\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nOver the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.\n\nfor example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024\n\nJoel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\n\noperating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)\n\nGreenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nEven with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.\nThe average Master List company has 88% ROC.\nThe average aristocrat 83%.\nThe average Ultra SWAN 87%.\nOver the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.\nAnalysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.\nA level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.\nBaidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.\nBaidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$2,792\n$3,016\n$993\n$4,009\n$16,548\n24.23%\n\n\n2021\n$3,574\n$3,554\n$1,893\n$5,447\n$19,517\n27.91%\n\n\n2022\n$3,974\n$4,062\n$2,220\n$6,282\n$22,235\n28.25%\n\n\n2023\n$5,049\n$5,858\n$2,719\n$8,577\n$25,258\n33.96%\n\n\n2024\nNA\nNA\n$1,504\nNA\n$30,071\nNA\n\n\n2025\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n21.83%\n24.77%\n10.94%\n28.85%\n16.10%\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHistorically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.\nTotal growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.\nBaidu Consensus Profit Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$16,548\n$2,106\n$4,251\n$2,216\n$3,473\n\n\n2021\n$19,517\n$3,947\n$4,734\n$2,629\n$2,760\n\n\n2022\n$22,235\n$5,013\n$5,812\n$3,400\n$3,381\n\n\n2023\n$25,258\n$5,854\n$6,730\n$4,163\n$4,226\n\n\n2024\n$30,071\n$7,421\nNA\n$6,195\n$5,268\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n16.10%\n37.01%\n16.55%\n29.31%\n10.98%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nManagement's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.\nFree cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.\nBaidu Consensus Margin Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n12.7%\n25.7%\n13.4%\n21.0%\n\n\n2021\n20.2%\n24.3%\n13.5%\n14.1%\n\n\n2022\n22.5%\n26.1%\n15.3%\n15.2%\n\n\n2023\n23.2%\n26.6%\n16.5%\n16.7%\n\n\n2024\n24.7%\nNA\n20.6%\n17.5%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n18.01%\n1.23%\n11.37%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBaidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.\nThat may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.\nBaidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Actual Growth\n2021 consensus growth\n2022 consensus growth\n2023 consensus growth\n\n\nEPS\n31%\n7%\n18%\n16%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n124%\n22%\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n-14%\n59%\n31%\n7%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n96%\n85%\n22%\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n-18%\n53%\n27%\n24%\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n130%\n26%\n26%\n19%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIn the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.\nReason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\n16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range\n6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error\n\n\nThe margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside\nthe long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR\nthe margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.\n\nand thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon\n\nHowever, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.\nAnd at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.\nReason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.\nEV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.\nBaidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value (12-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n\n\nEarnings\n25.0\n$243.87\n$261.27\n$307.91\n$357.77\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr\n23.5\n$324.46\n$394.46\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n19.9\n$202.33\n$321.22\n$420.37\n$448.64\n\n\nFree Cash Flow (11-yr)\n27.5\n$220.77\n$408.53\n$497.28\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n22.0\n$190.60\n$291.18\n$370.80\n$459.36\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n34.5\n$207.78\n$261.14\n$328.78\n$392.83\n\n\nAverage\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n$410.40\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$215.83\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n3.91%\n30.98%\n42.26%\n47.41%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n4%\n45%\n73%\n90%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.\n\n$350 is the median 12-month price target\n65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts\n\nAnd that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.\n\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n25%\n$168.45\n$234.53\n$280.35\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n35%\n$145.99\n$203.26\n$242.97\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n45%\n$123.53\n$171.99\n$205.59\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n55%\n$101.07\n$140.72\n$168.21\n\n\nCurrently\n$213.41\n5%\n32%\n43%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n5%\n47%\n75%\n\n\n\nAt a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.\nBut the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.\nReason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential\nHere is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.\nBaidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n75% total returns\n23.3% CAGR returns\nvs -1.3% CAGR S&P 500\n\nFrom its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&P 500 by 78% over the next three years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nCorporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.\nOver the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.\nBaidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect\n\n179% total returns\n19.8% CAGR\nvs 4.5% CAGR S&P 500\n4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential\n\nIf BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nOver the long term, analysts expect\n\n0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)\n6% to 28% CAGR range\nvs 7.8% for the S&P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats\n\nBaidu Total Returns Since 2006\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nIn the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.\nIt's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.\nBaidu Vs S&P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)\n15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,325.65\n$1,524.56\n$1,336.05\n\n\n10\n$1,757.34\n$2,324.28\n$2,746.21\n\n\n15\n$2,329.62\n$3,543.51\n$5,644.73\n\n\n20\n$3,088.26\n$5,402.29\n$11,602.54\n\n\n25\n$4,093.94\n$8,236.11\n$23,848.60\n\n\n30\n$5,427.13\n$12,556.45\n$49,019.95\n\n\n35\n$7,194.46\n$19,143.06\n$100,758.76\n\n\n40\n$9,537.33\n$29,184.74\n$207,106.02\n\n\n45\n$12,643.14\n$44,493.88\n$425,699.02\n\n\n50\n$16,760.36\n$67,833.58\n$875,009.10\n\n\n\nThe ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs BIDU consensus\n\n\n5\n1.15\n1.01\n\n\n10\n1.32\n1.56\n\n\n15\n1.52\n2.42\n\n\n20\n1.75\n3.76\n\n\n25\n2.01\n5.83\n\n\n30\n2.31\n9.03\n\n\n35\n2.66\n14.01\n\n\n40\n3.06\n21.72\n\n\n45\n3.52\n33.67\n\n\n50\n4.05\n52.21\n\n\n\nOver the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&P 500.\nIs Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.\nRisk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone\nThere are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.\nFundamental Risk Summary\n\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n\n\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n\n\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n\n\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.\n\n\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n\n\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.\nOr it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.\n\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n\n\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n\n\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n\nBaidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.\n\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n\n\nSearch is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.Baidu is also\n one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n\n\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on \n iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.\n\n\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n\nBut while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.\nBaidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.\n\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for seven straight quarters.\n\n\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like \n Tencent and \n Bilibili --both expanded their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n\nIn recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.\nIt has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.\nThis is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.\n\ncompared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)\nand an $89,000 investment into Alibaba\nand a $200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)\n\nAnd of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.\n\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n\n\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n\n\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n\n\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n\nUnlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.\n\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.\nManagement isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.\n\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n\n\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n\n\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its \n operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016 but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n\n\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n\n\nBaidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n\n\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n\nAnd of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.\n\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a \n variable interest entity structure designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n\n\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n\n\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n\n\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights.\" - Morningstar\n\nVIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).\nHow do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?\nBy turning to the expert consensus.\n\n39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management\nand whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis\n2 credit rating agencies\n3 ESG risk rating agencies\n44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks\n\nESG Material Financial Risk Analysis\nEssential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies\nAccording to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.\n\nBlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world\nMSCI - #1 indexing giant\nMorningstar\nReuters'/Refinitiv\nISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)\nAM Best (insurance industry rating agency)\nBank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nState Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth\nWells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nNAREIT\n\n\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\nPunchline: higher ROE, lower risk & lower cost of capital\n\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see \n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.\n\n\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a \n ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n\n\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.\nBaidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating\n\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n54.0%\nBB Below-Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n40.2%\n24.4/100 Medium Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)\n52.6%\nSatisfactory\n\n\nS&P\nNA\nNA\n\n\nConsensus\n48.9%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nAccording to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.\n\nwhich is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks\nESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies\n\n\n(Source: MSCI)\nChinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.\nBut note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\nIn recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\n\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n\n\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n\n\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n\nBIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.\n\nMorningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nReuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.\n\nBIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues\n\nThe bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.\nThe DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.\nA 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.\nHowever, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.\nBottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu\nIn this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"\nWhile there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.\nBaidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.\nIs Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?\nI think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.\nBarring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.\nAnd to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.\nI can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.\nFor those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.\nBasically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108152233,"gmtCreate":1620006773022,"gmtModify":1704337242239,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108152233","repostId":"1176458076","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176458076","pubTimestamp":1619759657,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176458076?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 13:14","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"DBS Will Take From Citi to Take On Grab","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176458076","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Aggressive deal-making can help Singapore’s biggest bank ward off new online challengers.\nPiyush Gup","content":"<p>Aggressive deal-making can help Singapore’s biggest bank ward off new online challengers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daf76ba2765ffd73c362b0f4dbe91222\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"933\"><span>Piyush Gupta must have his eye on some of his former employer’s assets. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg</span></p>\n<p>The pandemic is far from over, but Singapore’s biggest bank is already off to the races.</p>\n<p>DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s recent&nbsp;S$1.1 billion ($828&nbsp;million)&nbsp;purchase of a 13% stake in&nbsp;a rural Chinese bank&nbsp;gives a flavor of the aggressive deal-making investors can expect,&nbsp;as Citigroup Inc.’s exit from&nbsp;retail operations&nbsp;in Asia&nbsp;outside Singapore and Hong Kong&nbsp;puts assetson the block.</p>\n<p>The Citi sale couldn’t have come at a better moment. DBS Chief Executive Piyush Gupta must be thinking hard about what he could snag from his former employer:India? Indonesia? Both?&nbsp;He doesn’t have the luxury of time. On its home turf, DBS is relatively safe for now. But new-age virtual banks, one from ride-hailing app Grab Holdings Inc. and another from mobile-games maker Sea Ltd., are coming to Singapore. Grab’s record&nbsp;$40 billion merger&nbsp;with a blank-check company gives it balance-sheet muscle, which it is&nbsp;bound to flex against DBS.</p>\n<p>Luckily for the traditional lender, a revival in profit means it can buttress its Asian heft before&nbsp;challenger banks enter.&nbsp;A drop in new bad loans and a write-back of past&nbsp;allowances saw net income doubling from the previous three months&nbsp;to a better-than-expected&nbsp;S$2 billion&nbsp;in the first quarter, the bank said&nbsp;Friday. The thick cushion DBS built to absorb blows from Covid-19 disruption ought to&nbsp;come in handy this year as Singapore opens up, starting with a&nbsp;planned travel bubble&nbsp;with Hong Kong in May. Besides, with Singapore private home&nbsp;prices growing the&nbsp;fastest since 2018, mortgage loan demand is high.</p>\n<p>The loan pricing, though, is far from great. Pretty much the only thing weighing on earnings&nbsp;is the&nbsp;excess liquidity&nbsp;sloshing about in the island-state. It’s keeping a lid on interest rates&nbsp;DBS can charge customers. Net interest margin in the first quarter was 1.49%, unchanged from the previous three months. During the same period last year, the margin was 1.86%.</p>\n<p>Investors&nbsp;aren’t waiting for interest rates to normalize. For them, it’s enough that credit volumes are coming back. Gupta said he’s upgrading the outlook for full-year loan growth to “mid-to-high single digits.” Shares of DBS&nbsp;and&nbsp;its two smaller Singapore peers, Oversea-Chinese&nbsp;Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank Ltd., have jumped 40%-plus since last October.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f497ec4e5e68489a07e0705cc67a3e\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"559\"></p>\n<p>DBS should also expect a boost&nbsp;from the nervousness over Hong Kong’s&nbsp;openness and rule of law as Beijing tightens its grip. The greater&nbsp;the&nbsp;exodus of money and talent&nbsp;from the special administrative region, the bigger the opportunity for traditional rival Singapore to bulk up&nbsp;as a financial center.</p>\n<p>As a bank from politically neutral Singapore, DBS might even fancy its chances in Beijing’s ambitious Greater Bay Area. That capital-guzzling plan to connect Hong Kong with cities in southern China is a more&nbsp;natural bailiwick for&nbsp;HSBC Holdings Plc. But the London-headquartered lender&nbsp;is badly entangled in economic confrontations between&nbsp;the People’s Republic and the&nbsp;West. By paying top dollar to become&nbsp;the largest shareholder of Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank Corp., Gupta is signaling his intention to play.</p>\n<p>And why not? As I have&nbsp;argued before, Singapore’s largest bank is too dependent on its home market. Nationalist politics in Indonesia&nbsp;thwarted&nbsp;its&nbsp;$6.5 billion purchase&nbsp;of&nbsp;PT Bank Danamon, which eventually fell in the lap of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. That was eight years ago. Since then, DBS has&nbsp;acquired Australia &amp;&nbsp;New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.’s retail and wealth businesses in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Indonesia. More recently, it took over the assets and liabilities of Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd., a troubled Indian lender the central bank wanted to put&nbsp;out of its misery.</p>\n<p>None of this comes cheap. Half or more of the3% to 4% increase this year in DBS’s expenses&nbsp;from&nbsp;pre-pandemic 2019 levels&nbsp;will be on account of Lakshmi Vilas. But these “bolt-on” acquisitions, as Gupta terms them, will complement&nbsp;investment in digital banking. The&nbsp;technology push&nbsp;will go beyond consumer&nbsp;banking. Together with JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., and Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte, DBS is taking&nbsp;part ownership of&nbsp;a&nbsp;new blockchain-based platform&nbsp;for instantaneous settlement of cross-border payments between financial institutions. Offering services in tokenized money to corporate clients could&nbsp;see DBS open a fresh&nbsp;battlefront against Citigroup, HSBC and Standard Chartered Plc, the global-local, or “glocal,” trio&nbsp;that dominates transactions banking in Asia.</p>\n<p>Citi’s slimming down gives DBS&nbsp;the opportunity; Grab’s impending arrival provides the motive; and&nbsp;a&nbsp;post-pandemic upswing&nbsp;in profitability&nbsp;supplies&nbsp;the&nbsp;wherewithal.&nbsp;Expect Gupta to crank&nbsp;up the M&amp;A machine.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DBS Will Take From Citi to Take On Grab</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDBS Will Take From Citi to Take On Grab\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 13:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-30/dbs-will-take-from-citi-to-take-on-grab?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Aggressive deal-making can help Singapore’s biggest bank ward off new online challengers.\nPiyush Gupta must have his eye on some of his former employer’s assets. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-30/dbs-will-take-from-citi-to-take-on-grab?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"D05.SI":"星展集团控股","C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-30/dbs-will-take-from-citi-to-take-on-grab?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176458076","content_text":"Aggressive deal-making can help Singapore’s biggest bank ward off new online challengers.\nPiyush Gupta must have his eye on some of his former employer’s assets. Photographer: Ore Huiying/Bloomberg\nThe pandemic is far from over, but Singapore’s biggest bank is already off to the races.\nDBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s recent S$1.1 billion ($828 million) purchase of a 13% stake in a rural Chinese bank gives a flavor of the aggressive deal-making investors can expect, as Citigroup Inc.’s exit from retail operations in Asia outside Singapore and Hong Kong puts assetson the block.\nThe Citi sale couldn’t have come at a better moment. DBS Chief Executive Piyush Gupta must be thinking hard about what he could snag from his former employer:India? Indonesia? Both? He doesn’t have the luxury of time. On its home turf, DBS is relatively safe for now. But new-age virtual banks, one from ride-hailing app Grab Holdings Inc. and another from mobile-games maker Sea Ltd., are coming to Singapore. Grab’s record $40 billion merger with a blank-check company gives it balance-sheet muscle, which it is bound to flex against DBS.\nLuckily for the traditional lender, a revival in profit means it can buttress its Asian heft before challenger banks enter. A drop in new bad loans and a write-back of past allowances saw net income doubling from the previous three months to a better-than-expected S$2 billion in the first quarter, the bank said Friday. The thick cushion DBS built to absorb blows from Covid-19 disruption ought to come in handy this year as Singapore opens up, starting with a planned travel bubble with Hong Kong in May. Besides, with Singapore private home prices growing the fastest since 2018, mortgage loan demand is high.\nThe loan pricing, though, is far from great. Pretty much the only thing weighing on earnings is the excess liquidity sloshing about in the island-state. It’s keeping a lid on interest rates DBS can charge customers. Net interest margin in the first quarter was 1.49%, unchanged from the previous three months. During the same period last year, the margin was 1.86%.\nInvestors aren’t waiting for interest rates to normalize. For them, it’s enough that credit volumes are coming back. Gupta said he’s upgrading the outlook for full-year loan growth to “mid-to-high single digits.” Shares of DBS and its two smaller Singapore peers, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank Ltd., have jumped 40%-plus since last October.\n\nDBS should also expect a boost from the nervousness over Hong Kong’s openness and rule of law as Beijing tightens its grip. The greater the exodus of money and talent from the special administrative region, the bigger the opportunity for traditional rival Singapore to bulk up as a financial center.\nAs a bank from politically neutral Singapore, DBS might even fancy its chances in Beijing’s ambitious Greater Bay Area. That capital-guzzling plan to connect Hong Kong with cities in southern China is a more natural bailiwick for HSBC Holdings Plc. But the London-headquartered lender is badly entangled in economic confrontations between the People’s Republic and the West. By paying top dollar to become the largest shareholder of Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank Corp., Gupta is signaling his intention to play.\nAnd why not? As I have argued before, Singapore’s largest bank is too dependent on its home market. Nationalist politics in Indonesia thwarted its $6.5 billion purchase of PT Bank Danamon, which eventually fell in the lap of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. That was eight years ago. Since then, DBS has acquired Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.’s retail and wealth businesses in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Indonesia. More recently, it took over the assets and liabilities of Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd., a troubled Indian lender the central bank wanted to put out of its misery.\nNone of this comes cheap. Half or more of the3% to 4% increase this year in DBS’s expenses from pre-pandemic 2019 levels will be on account of Lakshmi Vilas. But these “bolt-on” acquisitions, as Gupta terms them, will complement investment in digital banking. The technology push will go beyond consumer banking. Together with JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte, DBS is taking part ownership of a new blockchain-based platform for instantaneous settlement of cross-border payments between financial institutions. Offering services in tokenized money to corporate clients could see DBS open a fresh battlefront against Citigroup, HSBC and Standard Chartered Plc, the global-local, or “glocal,” trio that dominates transactions banking in Asia.\nCiti’s slimming down gives DBS the opportunity; Grab’s impending arrival provides the motive; and a post-pandemic upswing in profitability supplies the wherewithal. Expect Gupta to crank up the M&A machine.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101639152,"gmtCreate":1619893341476,"gmtModify":1704336090418,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101639152","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146129324","pubTimestamp":1619795610,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146129324?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146129324","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric-car companyTeslahas now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle  pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter fro","content":"<p>Electric-car company<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.</p>\n<p>The problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p>Regulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.</p>\n<p>Tesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale of<b>Bitcoin</b>to the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0906160cab581f4c8a599b7d0965d34\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.</p>\n<p>There's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?</p>\n<p>A ton of competition is coming</p>\n<p>Tesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.</p>\n<p>The number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.<b>General Motors</b>(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.</p>\n<p>Those models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c651279799dfdf96552379a7b5d448a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>IMAGE SOURCE: GM.</p>\n<p><b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.</p>\n<p>Other car companies have big plans, as well.<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.<b>Toyota</b>(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.</p>\n<p>Not only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.</p>\n<p>None of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Question Tesla Investors Need to Ask Themselves\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 23:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/30/1-question-tesla-investors-need-to-ask-themselves/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146129324","content_text":"Electric-car companyTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)has now produced a profit for seven consecutive quarters. Tesla managed aGAAPnet income of $438 million in the first quarter, up from just $16 million one-year prior. It would appear, at least at first glance, that the electric-vehicle (EV) pioneer is on the right track in terms of profitability.\nThe problem is that these profits aren't really coming from the cars that Tesla sells. The company currently generates hundreds of millions of dollars in pure profit each quarter from the sale of regulatory credits, a side effect of other automakers not making enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory requirements.\nRegulatory credit sales totaled $518 million in the first quarter, accounting for all of Tesla's profit and then some. This has been the case in previous quarters, as well. In fact, after backing out regulatory credits from Tesla's net income, the company has been unprofitable for six-straight quarters.\nTesla's bottom line got an additional boost in the first quarter from a gain onthe sale ofBitcointo the tune of $101 million, which showed up as a reduction in costs. The picture doesn't look so rosy when both regulatory credits and Bitcoin gains are excluded:\n\nDATA SOURCE: TESLA. CHART BY AUTHOR.\nThere's no question that Tesla's growth is impressive, but there's also no question that the core business of making and selling cars is not turning a profit. The question Tesla investors need to ask themselves is: If Tesla isn't profitable now, when there's little to no competition in electric vehicles in the United States, what's going to happen when a deluge of competition fromtraditional automakersarrives?\nA ton of competition is coming\nTesla's brand has a cult following, so some people will be buying Tesla vehicles regardless of the other options available. But that's not likely to be the case for most people.\nThe number of electric vehicles available for purchase in the U.S. is set to explode in the coming years.General Motors(NYSE:GM)is planning to launch 30 EVs globally by 2025, with two-thirds set to be sold in North America. The company is aiming to sell 1 million EVs annually in North America by 2025.\nThose models include electric versions of the company's GMC Hummer and Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck. Tesla has a loyal customer base, but so does GM. Someone who's been a GM truck buyer for years is likely to stick with GM when they decide to switch to an electric vehicle.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GM.\nFord(NYSE:F)is also pouring resources into electric vehicles, allocating $29 billion for electric and autonomous vehicles through 2025. The company's plans include anelectric version of its F-150 pickup truck, which should hit the production lines by mid-2022. Given GM's and Ford's plans, it will not be easy for Tesla to steal away market share in the lucrative pickup-truck segment.\nOther car companies have big plans, as well.Volkswagen(OTC:VWAGY)already sells over 200,000 EVs annually andexpects that number to double this year. The company is aiming to sell roughly 2 million EVs annually by 2025 and expects to launch 70 EV models by 2030.Toyota(NYSE:TM)willlaunch 15 new electric vehicles by 2025, some of which will be under the new Toyota bZ sub-brand. The list goes on.\nNot only will all these electric vehicles provide consumers with a bevy of options beyond Tesla, but they'll also deprive Tesla of its regulatory-credit income as other automakers churn out an increasing number of EVs.\nNone of this is to say that Tesla can't be successful in a world where it faces more competition. But turning a profit is is going to get harder with each passing year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103086517,"gmtCreate":1619739220839,"gmtModify":1704271520244,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103086517","repostId":"1188611661","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188611661","pubTimestamp":1619734487,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188611661?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-30 06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188611661","media":"CNBC","summary":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company ","content":"<ul>\n <li>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.</li>\n <li>The company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Amazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company&nbsp;released&nbsp;its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798d7f0536203d2ae33b543f4dabf204\" tg-width=\"1281\" tg-height=\"591\"></p>\n<p>Here’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Earnings:</b>$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected</li>\n <li><b>Revenue:</b>$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Few companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.</p>\n<p>Crucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.</p>\n<p>When asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”</p>\n<p>Outside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.</p>\n<p>Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.</p>\n<p>Amazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.</p>\n<p>Physical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.</p>\n<p>During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.</p>\n<p>As expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.</p>\n<p>AmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Olsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.</p>","source":"lsy1609915699154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon sales surge 44% as it smashes earnings expectations\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 06:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188611661","content_text":"Amazon released first-quarter results on Thursday that trounced analysts’ expectations.\nThe company confirmed that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year over year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter.\n\nAmazonshares climbed more than 3.5% in extended trading Thursday after the company released its first-quarter earnings, beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and revenue.\n\nHere’s how the e-commerce giant fared, relative to analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv:\n\nEarnings:$15.79 per share vs. $9.54 per share expected\nRevenue:$108.52 billion vs. $104.47 billion expected\n\nFew companies have benefited from the pandemic-fueled surge of online shoppingas much as Amazon. Its first-quarter results showed the company’s business continues to be buoyed by the pandemic, with sales soaring 44% year-over-year to $108.5 billion.\nAmazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue, which should help allay investor fears that business could slow in a post-pandemic environment. The company expects to post revenue between $110 billion and $116 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s projection $108.6 billion.\nCrucially, Amazon confirmed in its guidance that this year’s Prime Day will take place in June, which will likely help year-over-year comparisons for revenue in the second quarter. Typically, Amazon’s annual, two-day discount bonanza takes place in July, but the company postponed the event to October last year amid pandemic-related uncertainty.\nWhen asked about the Prime Day timing, CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with investors: “In many areas, July is vacation month, so it might be better for customers, sellers and vendors to experiment with a different time period. We believe that it might be better timing later in [the second quarter], so that’s what we’re testing this year.”\nOutside of its core retail segment, Amazon’s cloud-computing and advertising businesses continue to boom. Amazon Web Servicessawnet sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenues grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.\nAmazon CEO Jeff Bezos also gave a rare glimpse into how the company’s streaming business has fared during the pandemic, as stuck-at-home consumers relied on online entertainment to keep busy. “As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year,” he said.\nAmazon’s streaming service, Prime Video, is a key offering of the company’s Prime subscription service, which costs $119 a year and includes a range of other benefits like free, two-day shipping. Bezos disclosed earlier this month that the company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020.\nPhysical stores revenue, which includes Whole Foods Market and other brick-and-mortar offerings like Amazon Books, continued to fall. Sales slumped 16% to $3.9 billion. The category excludes online delivery, Olsavsky said.\nDuring the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.\nAs expected, Amazon will incur fewer costs this year related to coronavirus safety measures. Operating income is forecast to be between $4.5 billion and $8 billion in the second quarter, assuming $1.5 billion of costs related to Covid-19. That’s in line with what Amazon executives predicted last quarter.\nAmazonsaidWednesday it would spend more than $1 billion on raising wages for over half a million of its U.S. operations workers. On a call with reporters, Olsavsky said it decided to move up the pay increase from the fall to this spring as volumes remain just as strong as they were at the beginning of the pandemic.\nOlsavsky declined to comment on Amazon’s CEO transition plans, which will come into play once Bezossteps down in the third quarter. Bezos will turn the helm over to AWS CEO Andy Jassy and assume the role of executive chairman of Amazon’s board.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109131911,"gmtCreate":1619671391533,"gmtModify":1704727762360,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin&nbsp; will make it","listText":"Bitcoin&nbsp; will make it","text":"Bitcoin will make it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109131911","repostId":"1144032670","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144032670","pubTimestamp":1619668565,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144032670?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Is Facing a Make-or-Break Moment, Technicals Show","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144032670","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Cryptocurrency reached record high $64,870 earlier this month\nToken now hovers between 50-day and 10","content":"<ul>\n <li>Cryptocurrency reached record high $64,870 earlier this month</li>\n <li>Token now hovers between 50-day and 100-day moving averages</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Bitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment following a recent bout of selling, according to technical analysis.</p>\n<p>Though the cryptocurrency has rebounded above its average price over the past 100 days, it’s still trading below its 50-day moving average. Such a dynamic typically indicates an asset is nearing an inflection point.</p>\n<p>If Bitcoin can’t overtake its 50-day mean -- which currently sits at about $57,000 -- then it might be in for a period of volatility as the gap between the two trend lines converges. Technical indicators suggest breaking out might not be an easy feat -- Bitcoin failed to do so on several occasions last week.</p>\n<p>Trading in the world’s largest digital asset has been choppy in recent days after it hit a record high in mid-April above $64,000. It’s down more than 15% since then, though it rebounded earlier this week amid positive news, including comments from Tesla Inc.’s chief financial officer that&nbsp;reiterated&nbsp;the company’s commitment to the cryptocurrency.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add83076e14c03be78b1563700da530f\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>“The drastic -- relative to what we’ve seen of late -- pullback certainly was a point of eyebrows being raised, but at the end of the day, I think the fact that things were able to rebound and stabilize is a good thing,” said David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital. “It shows real power to the token, the staying power to the asset class.”</p>\n<p>The coin fell 1.4% on Wednesday&nbsp;following&nbsp;an announcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will delay a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It was at about $54,586 as of 9:43 a.m. in Hong Kong Thursday.</p>\n<p>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that if the stock market continues its advance, he expected Bitcoin to follow.</p>\n<p>Despite its recent turbulence, Bitcoin is still up 511% over the past year. Inflation and central bank policies have been its biggest drivers during the past 12 months, according to Quant Insight, a London-based analytics research firm that studies the relationship between assets and macro factors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd7345d4e8a1537f87fe36a8cc83f90\" tg-width=\"1336\" tg-height=\"592\"><span>Source: Quant InsightSource: Quant Insight</span></p>\n<p>While some dispute the idea that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge, the argument has been a key tenet for its bullish thesis and rings true for a lot of crypto fans. Proponents have seized on the money-printing narrative to promote the notion that Bitcoin is a store of wealth, an explanation that’s gained traction in recent months with economists expecting price pressures to pick up.</p>\n<p>“No question about it -- what drives a big chunk of the interest in Bitcoin has been just the tremendous amount of money that has been printed and will be printed and really the fundamental thought that you cannot have that much money in the system and not have it be inflationary,” said Chuck Cumello, president and chief executive officer of Essex Financial Services.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Is Facing a Make-or-Break Moment, Technicals Show</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Is Facing a Make-or-Break Moment, Technicals Show\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/bitcoin-at-inflection-point-amid-recent-selloff-technicals-show?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cryptocurrency reached record high $64,870 earlier this month\nToken now hovers between 50-day and 100-day moving averages\n\nBitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment following a recent bout of selling, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/bitcoin-at-inflection-point-amid-recent-selloff-technicals-show?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block","PYPL":"PayPal","TSLA":"特斯拉","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/bitcoin-at-inflection-point-amid-recent-selloff-technicals-show?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144032670","content_text":"Cryptocurrency reached record high $64,870 earlier this month\nToken now hovers between 50-day and 100-day moving averages\n\nBitcoin is facing a make-or-break moment following a recent bout of selling, according to technical analysis.\nThough the cryptocurrency has rebounded above its average price over the past 100 days, it’s still trading below its 50-day moving average. Such a dynamic typically indicates an asset is nearing an inflection point.\nIf Bitcoin can’t overtake its 50-day mean -- which currently sits at about $57,000 -- then it might be in for a period of volatility as the gap between the two trend lines converges. Technical indicators suggest breaking out might not be an easy feat -- Bitcoin failed to do so on several occasions last week.\nTrading in the world’s largest digital asset has been choppy in recent days after it hit a record high in mid-April above $64,000. It’s down more than 15% since then, though it rebounded earlier this week amid positive news, including comments from Tesla Inc.’s chief financial officer that reiterated the company’s commitment to the cryptocurrency.\n\n“The drastic -- relative to what we’ve seen of late -- pullback certainly was a point of eyebrows being raised, but at the end of the day, I think the fact that things were able to rebound and stabilize is a good thing,” said David Tawil, president of ProChain Capital. “It shows real power to the token, the staying power to the asset class.”\nThe coin fell 1.4% on Wednesday following an announcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission that it will delay a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It was at about $54,586 as of 9:43 a.m. in Hong Kong Thursday.\nSam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that if the stock market continues its advance, he expected Bitcoin to follow.\nDespite its recent turbulence, Bitcoin is still up 511% over the past year. Inflation and central bank policies have been its biggest drivers during the past 12 months, according to Quant Insight, a London-based analytics research firm that studies the relationship between assets and macro factors.\nSource: Quant InsightSource: Quant Insight\nWhile some dispute the idea that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge, the argument has been a key tenet for its bullish thesis and rings true for a lot of crypto fans. Proponents have seized on the money-printing narrative to promote the notion that Bitcoin is a store of wealth, an explanation that’s gained traction in recent months with economists expecting price pressures to pick up.\n“No question about it -- what drives a big chunk of the interest in Bitcoin has been just the tremendous amount of money that has been printed and will be printed and really the fundamental thought that you cannot have that much money in the system and not have it be inflationary,” said Chuck Cumello, president and chief executive officer of Essex Financial Services.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100520203,"gmtCreate":1619622541702,"gmtModify":1704727017941,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100520203","repostId":"1109488212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109488212","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619618312,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109488212?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-28 21:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109488212","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427. Google's 2021 Q1 revenue and","content":"<p>Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427. Google's 2021 Q1 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and it announced the repurchase of 50 billion US dollars of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a938a5b024f585585bbe8129beb711\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tech giant displayed all-round performance in the last quarter with its flagship Google search, YouTube and Google cloud registering healthy gains in revenue as people, many stuck at home by repeated lockdowns, gorged on gaming, music, sports and entertainment.</p><p>The announcement of a $50 billion share repurchase program was also helping the bounce in shares.</p><p>The company posted a 34% gain in revenue to $55.31 billion. Operating margin, a sign of profitability, rose a huge 1100 basis points to 30%.</p><p>One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.</p><p>At $31.87 billion, search and other Google products like maps contributed more than half of total revenues. YouTube revenues rose 49% to $6 billion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-28 21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427. Google's 2021 Q1 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and it announced the repurchase of 50 billion US dollars of stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a938a5b024f585585bbe8129beb711\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The tech giant displayed all-round performance in the last quarter with its flagship Google search, YouTube and Google cloud registering healthy gains in revenue as people, many stuck at home by repeated lockdowns, gorged on gaming, music, sports and entertainment.</p><p>The announcement of a $50 billion share repurchase program was also helping the bounce in shares.</p><p>The company posted a 34% gain in revenue to $55.31 billion. Operating margin, a sign of profitability, rose a huge 1100 basis points to 30%.</p><p>One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.</p><p>At $31.87 billion, search and other Google products like maps contributed more than half of total revenues. YouTube revenues rose 49% to $6 billion.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109488212","content_text":"Google rose nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a record high of $2,427. Google's 2021 Q1 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and it announced the repurchase of 50 billion US dollars of stock.The tech giant displayed all-round performance in the last quarter with its flagship Google search, YouTube and Google cloud registering healthy gains in revenue as people, many stuck at home by repeated lockdowns, gorged on gaming, music, sports and entertainment.The announcement of a $50 billion share repurchase program was also helping the bounce in shares.The company posted a 34% gain in revenue to $55.31 billion. Operating margin, a sign of profitability, rose a huge 1100 basis points to 30%.One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.At $31.87 billion, search and other Google products like maps contributed more than half of total revenues. YouTube revenues rose 49% to $6 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344245408,"gmtCreate":1618412320404,"gmtModify":1704710498323,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon ?","listText":"To the moon ?","text":"To the moon ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344245408","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127454000","pubTimestamp":1618364092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127454000?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127454000","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--wil","content":"<p>'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writes</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8244209cb653b4d9e43e2d729863b9\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Here comes the Coinbase IPO! Photographer: Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Coinbase is the talk of Wall Street, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange Wednesday, through a direct listing.</p><p>There is no doubt that the public offering of Coinbase is a big deal in the world of crypto. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin  and is now in the midst of a moment that many in the industry have described as a tipping point .</p><p>There are few ways to get direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and what investors appear willing to be pay up for.</p><p>Leeor Shimron, analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. \"Coinbase's direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.\"</p><p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the listing is a reflection of the crypto's mainstream evolution.</p><p>\"Coinbase is a foundational piece of the crypto ecosystem and is a barometer for the growing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and crypto for the coming years in our opinion,\" he wrote in a research note Tuesday.</p><p>Some caution that the implied valuations for Coinbase as a crypto exchange are too lofty , the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>In a direct listing, a company floats its shares on a stock exchange, but without hiring banks to underwrite the transaction, like in an IPO.</p><p>Here's what you need to know about the coming offering.</p><p><b>What is Coinbase?</b></p><p>The Silicon Valley crypto exchange was co-founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong, 38, who runs the platform as chief executive. Fred Ehrsam, a Coinbase director, also helped to create the company.</p><p>According to Forbes , Armstrong's networth is currently $6.5 billion based on his ownership in the company and his wealth is likely to increase if the direct listing goes off successfully.</p><p><b>When will Coinbase go public?</b></p><p>Coinbase will list on April 14. The precise timing of the list isn't clear but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a>'s (PLTR)direct listing   after 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Where will it list?</b></p><p>Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"COIN\" as a direct listing, meaning it isn't raising any new money, as a company would under a traditional IPO.</p><p>Coinbase is the Nasdaq's first major direct listing, with Spotify <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$(SPOT)$</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORK\">Slack Technologies</a> (WORK) and most recently Palantir Technologies (PLTR) all opting to directly list at the NYSE.</p><p><b>Valuations?</b></p><p>Valuations for Coinbase vary from $50 billion to $150 billion based on some decentralized crypto platforms that attempt to replicate how the company's shares might trade. At the top end of the spectrum, Coinbase would be bigger than a number of U.S. exchanges, including ICE, Nasdaq, CME Group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">$(CME)$</a> and Cboe Global Markets <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">$(CBOE)$</a>.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2200134a14a3d37a8a656d85f6906c0\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm, said the crypto platform's value is ridiculously high. \"Even though Coinbase's revenue surged over the past 12 months, the company has little-to-no-chance of meeting the future profit expectations that are baked into its ridiculously high expected valuation of $100 billion,\" he said.</p><p>\"Coinbase's expected valuation of $100 billion implies that its revenue will be 1.5x the combined 2020 revenues of two of the most established exchanges in the marketplace, Nasdaq Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">$(NDAQ)$</a> and Intercontinental Exchange <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">$(ICE)$</a>, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange,\" he said.</p><p>Trainer said that based on his calculation, Coinbase's valuation should be closer to $18.9 billion--an 81% decrease from the $100 billion expected valuation.</p><p><b>'Not for the faint of heart'</b></p><p>MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis explained to MarketWatch why the offering is, as she describes it \"not for the faint of heart,\" but why she initiated coverage of the exchange at a buy with a price-target of $600, even before it sees its first trade on the Nasdaq.</p><p>\"I'm super super bullish on Coinbase...because you get the sense that they are a market leader in the space and crypto agnostic,\" she said.</p><p>That said, she acknowledges that currently 90% of Coinbase's revenues are derived directly from retail trading, with most in the U.S. and trading centered primarily on the two largest cryptos: bitcoin and Ether  on the ethereum blockchain.</p><p>\"So the implications is that Coinbase's revenues are correlated with the level of activity in cryto currency and especially bitcoin and ether.\"</p><p>Ellis says investors need to have at least a one-year long-term investment strategy in bitcoin, which could still go to zero by some bearish accounts, but a three-year outlook is even better, because the crypto complex has tended to operate in three-year cycles of boom and then bust.</p><p><b>Validation for crypto or a top?</b></p><p>Some bulls see Coinbase as validation for the nascent crpyto industry.</p><p>Alex Mashinsky, head of crypto-lending and trading platform Celsius Network, put it this way:</p><p>\"We look at the Coinbase listing as an additional validation of the space, and a major PR opportunity for the entire industry to shine as the future of finance,\" he told MarketWatch via email.</p><p>\"Coinbase has more users and more revenues than many of the largest Wall Street players and is more profitable than any major exchange, and this validation puts most skeptics at a crossroads having to re-evaluate their denial and frustration with the disruption coming at them from all sides.\"</p><p>Others suggest that it may prove a new top for the market and put crypto prices under pressure after a precipitous rally in recent days and a fresh record for bitcoin.</p><p>Yves Lamoureux, the president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux &amp; Co., told MarketWatch that he is fearful that too much euphoria surrounds bitcoin and crypto and sees it due for a retrenchment as a result. \"Can you find out-there anyone with a bearish viewpoint?\" he asked. \"A resounding no,\" said Lamoureux.</p><p><b>Is Coinbase the largest crypto exchange?</b></p><p>Coinbase is the second-largest crypto platform, but the largest in the U.S., by volume. The title of largest goes to Binance, which sees $47 billion in crypto trading volume in a 24-hour period, according to CoinMarketCap.com .</p><p><b>Who else owns Coinbase?</b></p><p>Venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is the largest owner of Coinbase, boasting about 25% of Class A shares  and 14%% of Class B. And Marc Andreessen, head of the venture capital outfit, sits on Coinbase's board.</p><p><b>Other facts</b></p><p>For those aiming for an even deeper dive into Coinbase, check out MarketWatch's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2116458171\" target=\"_blank\">5 things to know about the company</a>.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 09:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writesHere comes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127454000","content_text":"'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writesHere comes the Coinbase IPO! Photographer: Tiffany Hagler-Geard/BloombergCoinbase is the talk of Wall Street, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange Wednesday, through a direct listing.There is no doubt that the public offering of Coinbase is a big deal in the world of crypto. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin  and is now in the midst of a moment that many in the industry have described as a tipping point .There are few ways to get direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and what investors appear willing to be pay up for.Leeor Shimron, analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. \"Coinbase's direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.\"Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the listing is a reflection of the crypto's mainstream evolution.\"Coinbase is a foundational piece of the crypto ecosystem and is a barometer for the growing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and crypto for the coming years in our opinion,\" he wrote in a research note Tuesday.Some caution that the implied valuations for Coinbase as a crypto exchange are too lofty , the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.In a direct listing, a company floats its shares on a stock exchange, but without hiring banks to underwrite the transaction, like in an IPO.Here's what you need to know about the coming offering.What is Coinbase?The Silicon Valley crypto exchange was co-founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong, 38, who runs the platform as chief executive. Fred Ehrsam, a Coinbase director, also helped to create the company.According to Forbes , Armstrong's networth is currently $6.5 billion based on his ownership in the company and his wealth is likely to increase if the direct listing goes off successfully.When will Coinbase go public?Coinbase will list on April 14. The precise timing of the list isn't clear but Palantir Technologies Inc.'s (PLTR)direct listing   after 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.Where will it list?Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"COIN\" as a direct listing, meaning it isn't raising any new money, as a company would under a traditional IPO.Coinbase is the Nasdaq's first major direct listing, with Spotify $(SPOT)$, Slack Technologies (WORK) and most recently Palantir Technologies (PLTR) all opting to directly list at the NYSE.Valuations?Valuations for Coinbase vary from $50 billion to $150 billion based on some decentralized crypto platforms that attempt to replicate how the company's shares might trade. At the top end of the spectrum, Coinbase would be bigger than a number of U.S. exchanges, including ICE, Nasdaq, CME Group $(CME)$ and Cboe Global Markets $(CBOE)$.David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm, said the crypto platform's value is ridiculously high. \"Even though Coinbase's revenue surged over the past 12 months, the company has little-to-no-chance of meeting the future profit expectations that are baked into its ridiculously high expected valuation of $100 billion,\" he said.\"Coinbase's expected valuation of $100 billion implies that its revenue will be 1.5x the combined 2020 revenues of two of the most established exchanges in the marketplace, Nasdaq Inc. $(NDAQ)$ and Intercontinental Exchange $(ICE)$, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange,\" he said.Trainer said that based on his calculation, Coinbase's valuation should be closer to $18.9 billion--an 81% decrease from the $100 billion expected valuation.'Not for the faint of heart'MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis explained to MarketWatch why the offering is, as she describes it \"not for the faint of heart,\" but why she initiated coverage of the exchange at a buy with a price-target of $600, even before it sees its first trade on the Nasdaq.\"I'm super super bullish on Coinbase...because you get the sense that they are a market leader in the space and crypto agnostic,\" she said.That said, she acknowledges that currently 90% of Coinbase's revenues are derived directly from retail trading, with most in the U.S. and trading centered primarily on the two largest cryptos: bitcoin and Ether  on the ethereum blockchain.\"So the implications is that Coinbase's revenues are correlated with the level of activity in cryto currency and especially bitcoin and ether.\"Ellis says investors need to have at least a one-year long-term investment strategy in bitcoin, which could still go to zero by some bearish accounts, but a three-year outlook is even better, because the crypto complex has tended to operate in three-year cycles of boom and then bust.Validation for crypto or a top?Some bulls see Coinbase as validation for the nascent crpyto industry.Alex Mashinsky, head of crypto-lending and trading platform Celsius Network, put it this way:\"We look at the Coinbase listing as an additional validation of the space, and a major PR opportunity for the entire industry to shine as the future of finance,\" he told MarketWatch via email.\"Coinbase has more users and more revenues than many of the largest Wall Street players and is more profitable than any major exchange, and this validation puts most skeptics at a crossroads having to re-evaluate their denial and frustration with the disruption coming at them from all sides.\"Others suggest that it may prove a new top for the market and put crypto prices under pressure after a precipitous rally in recent days and a fresh record for bitcoin.Yves Lamoureux, the president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., told MarketWatch that he is fearful that too much euphoria surrounds bitcoin and crypto and sees it due for a retrenchment as a result. \"Can you find out-there anyone with a bearish viewpoint?\" he asked. \"A resounding no,\" said Lamoureux.Is Coinbase the largest crypto exchange?Coinbase is the second-largest crypto platform, but the largest in the U.S., by volume. The title of largest goes to Binance, which sees $47 billion in crypto trading volume in a 24-hour period, according to CoinMarketCap.com .Who else owns Coinbase?Venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is the largest owner of Coinbase, boasting about 25% of Class A shares  and 14%% of Class B. And Marc Andreessen, head of the venture capital outfit, sits on Coinbase's board.Other factsFor those aiming for an even deeper dive into Coinbase, check out MarketWatch's 5 things to know about the company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344242998,"gmtCreate":1618412253214,"gmtModify":1704710496020,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344242998","repostId":"1192643222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192643222","pubTimestamp":1618282294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192643222?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192643222","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to jus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.</li>\n <li>However, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength.</li>\n <li>Using EWT, I reach a target price for Palantir of $102-$145.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b69f78fdf5159903200c5b47d0740da\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>Photo by pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has had investors divided since its IPO’d on the 30th of September. It has gained the support of ARK manager Cathie Woods, but many bears still argue the stock has little room for appreciation in the short term. While some of these arguments have merit, I find myself thinking that many of the alleged “weaknesses” of Palantir are, in fact, strengths. Exposure to government contracts is, in fact, a huge tailwind and strategic advantage, in my opinion, and the argument that “insiders are selling” is overblown. Stock options are the best way of attracting talent, something Palantir has plenty of. Overall, I believe in the technology and growth story, and while profitability is still in question, this should not be an obstacle to the stock appreciating in the next months, years and even decades.</p>\n<p><b>Company Overview</b></p>\n<p>Founded by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) co-founder Peter Thiel in 2003 and is essentially a data analytics company. The company has two main divisions/products: Palantir Gotham, which is used to serve government contracts, and Palantir Foundry, which is a platform offered to private enterprises.</p>\n<p>Here we have the latest annual results:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0f38cad82c2f078a34291183992d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>Source: 10-K</span></p>\n<p>In the last year, Palantir managed to grow its revenues by 47%. In the last quarter of 2020, the company achieved 40%. which is in line with what it expects for the first quarter of 2021. Having said this, the Net loss has actually outpaced the top-line revenue growth by quite a bit. from 2019-2020 Net loss increased by over 100%. While the cost of revenues has remained under control, SGA and R&amp;D have shot through the roof.</p>\n<p>Breaking down revenues into segments, around 85% of the growth came from government contracts, while the commercial side grew by only 4%. However, it is worth mentioning that the company achieved some notable&nbsp;partnerships with Amazon.com’s&nbsp;(AMZN) AWS and also Rio Tinto (RIO). In more recent news, the company has increased its partnership with the government&nbsp;following an $89.9 million contract, and Palantir has also invested in Sarcos Robotics through the&nbsp;Spac Rotor Acquisition&nbsp;(ROT).</p>\n<p><b>Public Contracts are Actually Good</b></p>\n<p>There is a lot to say about Palantir’s latest moves, which have sent the stock up over 5% in the last week. I’d suggest you read fellow SA contributor Steven Fiorillo's&nbsp;article on the matter.</p>\n<p>Today, I’d like to talk about Palantir’s prospects on a more fundamental level and argue against some of the false mantra’s that bears keep pointing out about Palantir, starting with the idea that Palantir is too dependent on government contracts.</p>\n<p>Why is this a problem? As mentioned before, the company increased its revenues from the government by 86%. Arguably a point could be made that these revenues were at risk with the new change in leadership in the White House. However, Palantir continues to drum up business under the Joe Biden administration, in a “segment” that is projected to keep growing steadily.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a271884fd3c558ffabd4dd3c3d130b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Source: CBO.Gov</span></p>\n<p>According to the CBO, debt/GDP is projected to reach a ratio of 195% by 2050, essentially double what it is now, at levels only seen before during World War 2. Is this a good thing? For fiscally conservative taxpayers, not so much, for Palantir. Palantir has positioned itself as the leading provider for the government in terms of data analytics and, to a certain extent, cybersecurity. In a world where dependence on the government is rapidly increasing, we can only expect these items to keep going up. Breaking down expenditures, the CBO states that “Major Health Care Programmes” will be the biggest expense items, at 9% of GDP in 2050. Palantir already provides services to the NHS, the U. K’s centralized public healthcare network, and it’s just a matter of time before it signs similar contracts here in the U.S.</p>\n<p>On the last note on this matter, I will also say that Palantir is positioning itself to become a strategic business for the government, and could enjoy the many benefits that this class of business enjoys.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our software is used by the United States and its allies in Europe and around the world. Some companies work with the United States as well as its adversaries. We do not. We believe that our government and commercial customers value this clarity.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:10-K</p>\n<p>In a world increasingly divided and focused on nationalist practices, Palantir could become a key player for the U.S. government. Indeed, a company too important to fail.</p>\n<p><b>Share dilution is Actually Good</b></p>\n<p>The other point I’d like to dispute here is the idea that insiders are selling because they have no faith in the company. This is wrong on a few levels. First and foremost, Palantir uses stock options to attract talent. This has been the case for years with highly competitive and innovative tech companies and is a great way of rewarding employees for their work as well as aligning their incentives with the firms. The fact that insiders sell shares, is only logical, since they have to exercise their options before they expire, and often this exposes them tovery high tax liabilities.Like with Karp’s most recent sale.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Exercising those options will cost Karp $12.8 million. In return, he will receive stock worth $1.6 billion. That will create a mammoth tax bill and Karp is likely to sell a substantial portion of those shares this year to cover the liability.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:Marketwatch.com</p>\n<p>Lastly, I am happy to let the company fund itself through shares if this allows it to keep a strong balance sheet, which is the case with Palantir. With a little under $200 million in long-term debt, the company has a D/E of 0.3 and a current and quick ratio of over 3. Furthermore, debt/cash flow is equal to 0.75.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, I think that the issue of insider selling is overstated. Insiders still hold over 7% of Palantir, a similar proportion for example to the insider ownership of Facebook Inc. (FB).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>It’s hard to value a company like PLTR because it has yet to turn a profit. Even insiders have pointed out that Palantir is a long-term play. One thing is for sure though, Palantir has got many excited, and also has the added benefit of being a popular Ark stock. Therefore, I think Elliot wave Theory could be used here, as I did in myrecent article onPlug Power (PLUG) to arrive at a target price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf22fe861898fb57145c6f49460aecbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>Source: Author’s work</span></p>\n<p>Since its IPO, Palantir has reached around $45/share. The recent pullback could be seen as a second wave, so as long as the $20 low holds, the third wave could land us anywhere in the target box area, between $102 and 149$. What would be harder to say, is the timeline regarding this appreciation, but I believe it could materialize in the next 2-3 years.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are significant risks faced by Palantir in the coming years. The company has stiff competition, specifically in the private sector, where it has to fight against enterprises that deliver similar services and manage to make a profit. This is perhaps the biggest lingering question over Palantir; can it provide its industry-leading service while still making a profit? Indeed, patience may be the name of the game, as Wall Street estimates have Palantir with flat EPS until 2024.</p>\n<p>The other issue, which could hurt Palantir, is data security and compartmentalization. The NY Times penned an article posing the question:Does Palantir See Too Much?This kind of thought process could limit Palantir’s ability to keep capturing government business.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Without a doubt, Palantir is on road to becoming a key business in big data, especially for the government, which is fond of the idea of keeping a close eye on both its citizens and its enemies. Palantir technology is head and shoulders above the rest, but this comes at the price of high expenses. For investors willing to be patient and let Palantir prove itself, this could be a great time to buy.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1192643222","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength.\nUsing EWT, I reach a target price for Palantir of $102-$145.\n\nPhoto by pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has had investors divided since its IPO’d on the 30th of September. It has gained the support of ARK manager Cathie Woods, but many bears still argue the stock has little room for appreciation in the short term. While some of these arguments have merit, I find myself thinking that many of the alleged “weaknesses” of Palantir are, in fact, strengths. Exposure to government contracts is, in fact, a huge tailwind and strategic advantage, in my opinion, and the argument that “insiders are selling” is overblown. Stock options are the best way of attracting talent, something Palantir has plenty of. Overall, I believe in the technology and growth story, and while profitability is still in question, this should not be an obstacle to the stock appreciating in the next months, years and even decades.\nCompany Overview\nFounded by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) co-founder Peter Thiel in 2003 and is essentially a data analytics company. The company has two main divisions/products: Palantir Gotham, which is used to serve government contracts, and Palantir Foundry, which is a platform offered to private enterprises.\nHere we have the latest annual results:\nSource: 10-K\nIn the last year, Palantir managed to grow its revenues by 47%. In the last quarter of 2020, the company achieved 40%. which is in line with what it expects for the first quarter of 2021. Having said this, the Net loss has actually outpaced the top-line revenue growth by quite a bit. from 2019-2020 Net loss increased by over 100%. While the cost of revenues has remained under control, SGA and R&D have shot through the roof.\nBreaking down revenues into segments, around 85% of the growth came from government contracts, while the commercial side grew by only 4%. However, it is worth mentioning that the company achieved some notable partnerships with Amazon.com’s (AMZN) AWS and also Rio Tinto (RIO). In more recent news, the company has increased its partnership with the government following an $89.9 million contract, and Palantir has also invested in Sarcos Robotics through the Spac Rotor Acquisition (ROT).\nPublic Contracts are Actually Good\nThere is a lot to say about Palantir’s latest moves, which have sent the stock up over 5% in the last week. I’d suggest you read fellow SA contributor Steven Fiorillo's article on the matter.\nToday, I’d like to talk about Palantir’s prospects on a more fundamental level and argue against some of the false mantra’s that bears keep pointing out about Palantir, starting with the idea that Palantir is too dependent on government contracts.\nWhy is this a problem? As mentioned before, the company increased its revenues from the government by 86%. Arguably a point could be made that these revenues were at risk with the new change in leadership in the White House. However, Palantir continues to drum up business under the Joe Biden administration, in a “segment” that is projected to keep growing steadily.\nSource: CBO.Gov\nAccording to the CBO, debt/GDP is projected to reach a ratio of 195% by 2050, essentially double what it is now, at levels only seen before during World War 2. Is this a good thing? For fiscally conservative taxpayers, not so much, for Palantir. Palantir has positioned itself as the leading provider for the government in terms of data analytics and, to a certain extent, cybersecurity. In a world where dependence on the government is rapidly increasing, we can only expect these items to keep going up. Breaking down expenditures, the CBO states that “Major Health Care Programmes” will be the biggest expense items, at 9% of GDP in 2050. Palantir already provides services to the NHS, the U. K’s centralized public healthcare network, and it’s just a matter of time before it signs similar contracts here in the U.S.\nOn the last note on this matter, I will also say that Palantir is positioning itself to become a strategic business for the government, and could enjoy the many benefits that this class of business enjoys.\n\n Our software is used by the United States and its allies in Europe and around the world. Some companies work with the United States as well as its adversaries. We do not. We believe that our government and commercial customers value this clarity.\n\nSource:10-K\nIn a world increasingly divided and focused on nationalist practices, Palantir could become a key player for the U.S. government. Indeed, a company too important to fail.\nShare dilution is Actually Good\nThe other point I’d like to dispute here is the idea that insiders are selling because they have no faith in the company. This is wrong on a few levels. First and foremost, Palantir uses stock options to attract talent. This has been the case for years with highly competitive and innovative tech companies and is a great way of rewarding employees for their work as well as aligning their incentives with the firms. The fact that insiders sell shares, is only logical, since they have to exercise their options before they expire, and often this exposes them tovery high tax liabilities.Like with Karp’s most recent sale.\n\n Exercising those options will cost Karp $12.8 million. In return, he will receive stock worth $1.6 billion. That will create a mammoth tax bill and Karp is likely to sell a substantial portion of those shares this year to cover the liability.\n\nSource:Marketwatch.com\nLastly, I am happy to let the company fund itself through shares if this allows it to keep a strong balance sheet, which is the case with Palantir. With a little under $200 million in long-term debt, the company has a D/E of 0.3 and a current and quick ratio of over 3. Furthermore, debt/cash flow is equal to 0.75.\nIn conclusion, I think that the issue of insider selling is overstated. Insiders still hold over 7% of Palantir, a similar proportion for example to the insider ownership of Facebook Inc. (FB).\nValuation\nIt’s hard to value a company like PLTR because it has yet to turn a profit. Even insiders have pointed out that Palantir is a long-term play. One thing is for sure though, Palantir has got many excited, and also has the added benefit of being a popular Ark stock. Therefore, I think Elliot wave Theory could be used here, as I did in myrecent article onPlug Power (PLUG) to arrive at a target price.\nSource: Author’s work\nSince its IPO, Palantir has reached around $45/share. The recent pullback could be seen as a second wave, so as long as the $20 low holds, the third wave could land us anywhere in the target box area, between $102 and 149$. What would be harder to say, is the timeline regarding this appreciation, but I believe it could materialize in the next 2-3 years.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are significant risks faced by Palantir in the coming years. The company has stiff competition, specifically in the private sector, where it has to fight against enterprises that deliver similar services and manage to make a profit. This is perhaps the biggest lingering question over Palantir; can it provide its industry-leading service while still making a profit? Indeed, patience may be the name of the game, as Wall Street estimates have Palantir with flat EPS until 2024.\nThe other issue, which could hurt Palantir, is data security and compartmentalization. The NY Times penned an article posing the question:Does Palantir See Too Much?This kind of thought process could limit Palantir’s ability to keep capturing government business.\nTakeaway\nWithout a doubt, Palantir is on road to becoming a key business in big data, especially for the government, which is fond of the idea of keeping a close eye on both its citizens and its enemies. Palantir technology is head and shoulders above the rest, but this comes at the price of high expenses. For investors willing to be patient and let Palantir prove itself, this could be a great time to buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349429033,"gmtCreate":1617633098522,"gmtModify":1704701168783,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bubble","listText":"Bubble","text":"Bubble","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349429033","repostId":"2125579247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2125579247","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1617621115,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2125579247?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-05 19:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The Era Of Meme Stocks And NFTs Already Over?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125579247","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With an excess of stimulus money and time on their hands, people's attention landed on commission-fr","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be46311cd2d33d0e3917aaedb8a121dc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With an excess of stimulus money and time on their hands, people's attention landed on commission-free trading platforms, leading to an exuberant rise in prices this year.</p><p>Now, with vaccines rolling out, final stimulus checks being spent and warm weather returning, attention is returning to socializing and traveling.</p><p><b>Memes Fall Flat</b>: So goes the explanation for why prices in meme stocks have been flat since the frenzy reached fever pitch in late January, according to Bloomberg.</p><p>Searches for “Google flights” reached their a popularity score of 100 (the highest possible for a given period of time) in the past week, while searches for phrases like “stock trading” and “investing” have plunged, Bloomberg said, citing Google Trends data.</p><p>“The stimulus check impact on retail trading is waning,” Bloomberg quoted Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, as saying. “Many Americans are looking to go big on attending sporting events, traveling across the country, vacationing, visiting family and friends, and revamping wardrobes before going out to restaurants, pubs and returning to the office.”</p><p>Retail traders accounted for nearly 25% of trading activity in the past year, up from an average of about 10% over the decade prior to the pandemic, Benzinga noted two weeks ago, citing Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>NFT Prices Plunge</b>: Meanwhile, interest in another source of exuberance, non-fungible tokens, appears to be on the wane as well, just weeks after the $69.3 million Beeple artwork sale brought the digital innovation to the world's attention.</p><p>Average prices for NFTs peaked in February at about $1,400 but have fallen by almost 70% since then, according to Bloomberg, using data from NFT market-tracker Nonfungible.com.</p><p>Bitcoin.com noted a decline in interest in NTFs. The site said search terms for NFTs have been falling since mid-March highs on Google in the U.S. and worldwide, though the numbers still remain high, mostly in the 90s.</p><p>Bitcoin quoted an author who's written on NFTs saying that the market suffers from an oversupply as more people realize how easy NFTs are to create.</p><p>NFTs are not likely to go away, as they represent a new innovation with promising uses for proving ownership and tracking ownership history, as well as for people's online identities.</p><p>But the fall in prices suggests the recent boom was a temporary rush of excitement for a concept that's still taking shape.</p><p>Before long, the meme stocks and NFTs of early 2021 may appear in retrospect to have been nothing more than the oddities of a feverish pandemic.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The Era Of Meme Stocks And NFTs Already Over?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The Era Of Meme Stocks And NFTs Already Over?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-05 19:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be46311cd2d33d0e3917aaedb8a121dc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With an excess of stimulus money and time on their hands, people's attention landed on commission-free trading platforms, leading to an exuberant rise in prices this year.</p><p>Now, with vaccines rolling out, final stimulus checks being spent and warm weather returning, attention is returning to socializing and traveling.</p><p><b>Memes Fall Flat</b>: So goes the explanation for why prices in meme stocks have been flat since the frenzy reached fever pitch in late January, according to Bloomberg.</p><p>Searches for “Google flights” reached their a popularity score of 100 (the highest possible for a given period of time) in the past week, while searches for phrases like “stock trading” and “investing” have plunged, Bloomberg said, citing Google Trends data.</p><p>“The stimulus check impact on retail trading is waning,” Bloomberg quoted Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, as saying. “Many Americans are looking to go big on attending sporting events, traveling across the country, vacationing, visiting family and friends, and revamping wardrobes before going out to restaurants, pubs and returning to the office.”</p><p>Retail traders accounted for nearly 25% of trading activity in the past year, up from an average of about 10% over the decade prior to the pandemic, Benzinga noted two weeks ago, citing Goldman Sachs.</p><p><b>NFT Prices Plunge</b>: Meanwhile, interest in another source of exuberance, non-fungible tokens, appears to be on the wane as well, just weeks after the $69.3 million Beeple artwork sale brought the digital innovation to the world's attention.</p><p>Average prices for NFTs peaked in February at about $1,400 but have fallen by almost 70% since then, according to Bloomberg, using data from NFT market-tracker Nonfungible.com.</p><p>Bitcoin.com noted a decline in interest in NTFs. The site said search terms for NFTs have been falling since mid-March highs on Google in the U.S. and worldwide, though the numbers still remain high, mostly in the 90s.</p><p>Bitcoin quoted an author who's written on NFTs saying that the market suffers from an oversupply as more people realize how easy NFTs are to create.</p><p>NFTs are not likely to go away, as they represent a new innovation with promising uses for proving ownership and tracking ownership history, as well as for people's online identities.</p><p>But the fall in prices suggests the recent boom was a temporary rush of excitement for a concept that's still taking shape.</p><p>Before long, the meme stocks and NFTs of early 2021 may appear in retrospect to have been nothing more than the oddities of a feverish pandemic.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc24e12c653fec8b3649aea7072da90","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U","GOOG":"谷歌",".DJI":"道琼斯","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2125579247","content_text":"With an excess of stimulus money and time on their hands, people's attention landed on commission-free trading platforms, leading to an exuberant rise in prices this year.Now, with vaccines rolling out, final stimulus checks being spent and warm weather returning, attention is returning to socializing and traveling.Memes Fall Flat: So goes the explanation for why prices in meme stocks have been flat since the frenzy reached fever pitch in late January, according to Bloomberg.Searches for “Google flights” reached their a popularity score of 100 (the highest possible for a given period of time) in the past week, while searches for phrases like “stock trading” and “investing” have plunged, Bloomberg said, citing Google Trends data.“The stimulus check impact on retail trading is waning,” Bloomberg quoted Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, as saying. “Many Americans are looking to go big on attending sporting events, traveling across the country, vacationing, visiting family and friends, and revamping wardrobes before going out to restaurants, pubs and returning to the office.”Retail traders accounted for nearly 25% of trading activity in the past year, up from an average of about 10% over the decade prior to the pandemic, Benzinga noted two weeks ago, citing Goldman Sachs.NFT Prices Plunge: Meanwhile, interest in another source of exuberance, non-fungible tokens, appears to be on the wane as well, just weeks after the $69.3 million Beeple artwork sale brought the digital innovation to the world's attention.Average prices for NFTs peaked in February at about $1,400 but have fallen by almost 70% since then, according to Bloomberg, using data from NFT market-tracker Nonfungible.com.Bitcoin.com noted a decline in interest in NTFs. The site said search terms for NFTs have been falling since mid-March highs on Google in the U.S. and worldwide, though the numbers still remain high, mostly in the 90s.Bitcoin quoted an author who's written on NFTs saying that the market suffers from an oversupply as more people realize how easy NFTs are to create.NFTs are not likely to go away, as they represent a new innovation with promising uses for proving ownership and tracking ownership history, as well as for people's online identities.But the fall in prices suggests the recent boom was a temporary rush of excitement for a concept that's still taking shape.Before long, the meme stocks and NFTs of early 2021 may appear in retrospect to have been nothing more than the oddities of a feverish pandemic.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":109131911,"gmtCreate":1619671391533,"gmtModify":1704727762360,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bitcoin&nbsp; will make it","listText":"Bitcoin&nbsp; will make it","text":"Bitcoin will make it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109131911","repostId":"1144032670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344245408,"gmtCreate":1618412320404,"gmtModify":1704710498323,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon ?","listText":"To the moon ?","text":"To the moon ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344245408","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2127454000","pubTimestamp":1618364092,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2127454000?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-14 09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2127454000","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--wil","content":"<p>'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writes</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a8244209cb653b4d9e43e2d729863b9\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Here comes the Coinbase IPO! Photographer: Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg</span></p><p>Coinbase is the talk of Wall Street, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange Wednesday, through a direct listing.</p><p>There is no doubt that the public offering of Coinbase is a big deal in the world of crypto. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin  and is now in the midst of a moment that many in the industry have described as a tipping point .</p><p>There are few ways to get direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and what investors appear willing to be pay up for.</p><p>Leeor Shimron, analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. \"Coinbase's direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.\"</p><p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the listing is a reflection of the crypto's mainstream evolution.</p><p>\"Coinbase is a foundational piece of the crypto ecosystem and is a barometer for the growing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and crypto for the coming years in our opinion,\" he wrote in a research note Tuesday.</p><p>Some caution that the implied valuations for Coinbase as a crypto exchange are too lofty , the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p>In a direct listing, a company floats its shares on a stock exchange, but without hiring banks to underwrite the transaction, like in an IPO.</p><p>Here's what you need to know about the coming offering.</p><p><b>What is Coinbase?</b></p><p>The Silicon Valley crypto exchange was co-founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong, 38, who runs the platform as chief executive. Fred Ehrsam, a Coinbase director, also helped to create the company.</p><p>According to Forbes , Armstrong's networth is currently $6.5 billion based on his ownership in the company and his wealth is likely to increase if the direct listing goes off successfully.</p><p><b>When will Coinbase go public?</b></p><p>Coinbase will list on April 14. The precise timing of the list isn't clear but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a>'s (PLTR)direct listing   after 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.</p><p><b>Where will it list?</b></p><p>Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"COIN\" as a direct listing, meaning it isn't raising any new money, as a company would under a traditional IPO.</p><p>Coinbase is the Nasdaq's first major direct listing, with Spotify <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">$(SPOT)$</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORK\">Slack Technologies</a> (WORK) and most recently Palantir Technologies (PLTR) all opting to directly list at the NYSE.</p><p><b>Valuations?</b></p><p>Valuations for Coinbase vary from $50 billion to $150 billion based on some decentralized crypto platforms that attempt to replicate how the company's shares might trade. At the top end of the spectrum, Coinbase would be bigger than a number of U.S. exchanges, including ICE, Nasdaq, CME Group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">$(CME)$</a> and Cboe Global Markets <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">$(CBOE)$</a>.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2200134a14a3d37a8a656d85f6906c0\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm, said the crypto platform's value is ridiculously high. \"Even though Coinbase's revenue surged over the past 12 months, the company has little-to-no-chance of meeting the future profit expectations that are baked into its ridiculously high expected valuation of $100 billion,\" he said.</p><p>\"Coinbase's expected valuation of $100 billion implies that its revenue will be 1.5x the combined 2020 revenues of two of the most established exchanges in the marketplace, Nasdaq Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">$(NDAQ)$</a> and Intercontinental Exchange <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">$(ICE)$</a>, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange,\" he said.</p><p>Trainer said that based on his calculation, Coinbase's valuation should be closer to $18.9 billion--an 81% decrease from the $100 billion expected valuation.</p><p><b>'Not for the faint of heart'</b></p><p>MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis explained to MarketWatch why the offering is, as she describes it \"not for the faint of heart,\" but why she initiated coverage of the exchange at a buy with a price-target of $600, even before it sees its first trade on the Nasdaq.</p><p>\"I'm super super bullish on Coinbase...because you get the sense that they are a market leader in the space and crypto agnostic,\" she said.</p><p>That said, she acknowledges that currently 90% of Coinbase's revenues are derived directly from retail trading, with most in the U.S. and trading centered primarily on the two largest cryptos: bitcoin and Ether  on the ethereum blockchain.</p><p>\"So the implications is that Coinbase's revenues are correlated with the level of activity in cryto currency and especially bitcoin and ether.\"</p><p>Ellis says investors need to have at least a one-year long-term investment strategy in bitcoin, which could still go to zero by some bearish accounts, but a three-year outlook is even better, because the crypto complex has tended to operate in three-year cycles of boom and then bust.</p><p><b>Validation for crypto or a top?</b></p><p>Some bulls see Coinbase as validation for the nascent crpyto industry.</p><p>Alex Mashinsky, head of crypto-lending and trading platform Celsius Network, put it this way:</p><p>\"We look at the Coinbase listing as an additional validation of the space, and a major PR opportunity for the entire industry to shine as the future of finance,\" he told MarketWatch via email.</p><p>\"Coinbase has more users and more revenues than many of the largest Wall Street players and is more profitable than any major exchange, and this validation puts most skeptics at a crossroads having to re-evaluate their denial and frustration with the disruption coming at them from all sides.\"</p><p>Others suggest that it may prove a new top for the market and put crypto prices under pressure after a precipitous rally in recent days and a fresh record for bitcoin.</p><p>Yves Lamoureux, the president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux &amp; Co., told MarketWatch that he is fearful that too much euphoria surrounds bitcoin and crypto and sees it due for a retrenchment as a result. \"Can you find out-there anyone with a bearish viewpoint?\" he asked. \"A resounding no,\" said Lamoureux.</p><p><b>Is Coinbase the largest crypto exchange?</b></p><p>Coinbase is the second-largest crypto platform, but the largest in the U.S., by volume. The title of largest goes to Binance, which sees $47 billion in crypto trading volume in a 24-hour period, according to CoinMarketCap.com .</p><p><b>Who else owns Coinbase?</b></p><p>Venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is the largest owner of Coinbase, boasting about 25% of Class A shares  and 14%% of Class B. And Marc Andreessen, head of the venture capital outfit, sits on Coinbase's board.</p><p><b>Other facts</b></p><p>For those aiming for an even deeper dive into Coinbase, check out MarketWatch's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2116458171\" target=\"_blank\">5 things to know about the company</a>.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase IPO: Everything you need to know about the ‘watershed moment’ in crypto\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-14 09:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writesHere comes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-ipo-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-watershed-moment-in-crypto-11618350086?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2127454000","content_text":"'That said, investing in Coinbase is not for the faint of heart, as the business--and the stock--will likely see dramatic, potentially protracted, swings,' MoffettNathanson's Ellis writesHere comes the Coinbase IPO! Photographer: Tiffany Hagler-Geard/BloombergCoinbase is the talk of Wall Street, as the largest crypto platform in the U.S. gears up for its public debut on a traditional exchange Wednesday, through a direct listing.There is no doubt that the public offering of Coinbase is a big deal in the world of crypto. The company was created just over a decade ago with the genesis of bitcoin  and is now in the midst of a moment that many in the industry have described as a tipping point .There are few ways to get direct ownership of crypto currencies, outside of buying them directly, a service that Coinbase provides for a fee, and what investors appear willing to be pay up for.Leeor Shimron, analyst at FundStrat Global Advisors, described the Coinbase listing as seminal. \"Coinbase's direct listing is a watershed moment for the crypto industry.\"Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said the listing is a reflection of the crypto's mainstream evolution.\"Coinbase is a foundational piece of the crypto ecosystem and is a barometer for the growing mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and crypto for the coming years in our opinion,\" he wrote in a research note Tuesday.Some caution that the implied valuations for Coinbase as a crypto exchange are too lofty , the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.In a direct listing, a company floats its shares on a stock exchange, but without hiring banks to underwrite the transaction, like in an IPO.Here's what you need to know about the coming offering.What is Coinbase?The Silicon Valley crypto exchange was co-founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong, 38, who runs the platform as chief executive. Fred Ehrsam, a Coinbase director, also helped to create the company.According to Forbes , Armstrong's networth is currently $6.5 billion based on his ownership in the company and his wealth is likely to increase if the direct listing goes off successfully.When will Coinbase go public?Coinbase will list on April 14. The precise timing of the list isn't clear but Palantir Technologies Inc.'s (PLTR)direct listing   after 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.Where will it list?Coinbase is set to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"COIN\" as a direct listing, meaning it isn't raising any new money, as a company would under a traditional IPO.Coinbase is the Nasdaq's first major direct listing, with Spotify $(SPOT)$, Slack Technologies (WORK) and most recently Palantir Technologies (PLTR) all opting to directly list at the NYSE.Valuations?Valuations for Coinbase vary from $50 billion to $150 billion based on some decentralized crypto platforms that attempt to replicate how the company's shares might trade. At the top end of the spectrum, Coinbase would be bigger than a number of U.S. exchanges, including ICE, Nasdaq, CME Group $(CME)$ and Cboe Global Markets $(CBOE)$.David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, an investment research firm, said the crypto platform's value is ridiculously high. \"Even though Coinbase's revenue surged over the past 12 months, the company has little-to-no-chance of meeting the future profit expectations that are baked into its ridiculously high expected valuation of $100 billion,\" he said.\"Coinbase's expected valuation of $100 billion implies that its revenue will be 1.5x the combined 2020 revenues of two of the most established exchanges in the marketplace, Nasdaq Inc. $(NDAQ)$ and Intercontinental Exchange $(ICE)$, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange,\" he said.Trainer said that based on his calculation, Coinbase's valuation should be closer to $18.9 billion--an 81% decrease from the $100 billion expected valuation.'Not for the faint of heart'MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis explained to MarketWatch why the offering is, as she describes it \"not for the faint of heart,\" but why she initiated coverage of the exchange at a buy with a price-target of $600, even before it sees its first trade on the Nasdaq.\"I'm super super bullish on Coinbase...because you get the sense that they are a market leader in the space and crypto agnostic,\" she said.That said, she acknowledges that currently 90% of Coinbase's revenues are derived directly from retail trading, with most in the U.S. and trading centered primarily on the two largest cryptos: bitcoin and Ether  on the ethereum blockchain.\"So the implications is that Coinbase's revenues are correlated with the level of activity in cryto currency and especially bitcoin and ether.\"Ellis says investors need to have at least a one-year long-term investment strategy in bitcoin, which could still go to zero by some bearish accounts, but a three-year outlook is even better, because the crypto complex has tended to operate in three-year cycles of boom and then bust.Validation for crypto or a top?Some bulls see Coinbase as validation for the nascent crpyto industry.Alex Mashinsky, head of crypto-lending and trading platform Celsius Network, put it this way:\"We look at the Coinbase listing as an additional validation of the space, and a major PR opportunity for the entire industry to shine as the future of finance,\" he told MarketWatch via email.\"Coinbase has more users and more revenues than many of the largest Wall Street players and is more profitable than any major exchange, and this validation puts most skeptics at a crossroads having to re-evaluate their denial and frustration with the disruption coming at them from all sides.\"Others suggest that it may prove a new top for the market and put crypto prices under pressure after a precipitous rally in recent days and a fresh record for bitcoin.Yves Lamoureux, the president of Montreal-based macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., told MarketWatch that he is fearful that too much euphoria surrounds bitcoin and crypto and sees it due for a retrenchment as a result. \"Can you find out-there anyone with a bearish viewpoint?\" he asked. \"A resounding no,\" said Lamoureux.Is Coinbase the largest crypto exchange?Coinbase is the second-largest crypto platform, but the largest in the U.S., by volume. The title of largest goes to Binance, which sees $47 billion in crypto trading volume in a 24-hour period, according to CoinMarketCap.com .Who else owns Coinbase?Venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, is the largest owner of Coinbase, boasting about 25% of Class A shares  and 14%% of Class B. And Marc Andreessen, head of the venture capital outfit, sits on Coinbase's board.Other factsFor those aiming for an even deeper dive into Coinbase, check out MarketWatch's 5 things to know about the company.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199855235,"gmtCreate":1620696451227,"gmtModify":1704346875254,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope NIO one day can shine &amp; grow","listText":"Hope NIO one day can shine &amp; grow","text":"Hope NIO one day can shine & grow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199855235","repostId":"2134651681","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101639152,"gmtCreate":1619893341476,"gmtModify":1704336090418,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101639152","repostId":"1146129324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103086517,"gmtCreate":1619739220839,"gmtModify":1704271520244,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/103086517","repostId":"1188611661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100520203,"gmtCreate":1619622541702,"gmtModify":1704727017941,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome","listText":"Awesome","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100520203","repostId":"1109488212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349429033,"gmtCreate":1617633098522,"gmtModify":1704701168783,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bubble","listText":"Bubble","text":"Bubble","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349429033","repostId":"2125579247","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108680506,"gmtCreate":1620018323405,"gmtModify":1704337460286,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent &amp; Alibaba &amp; some Chinese govt&nbsp;regulation issues ?","listText":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent &amp; Alibaba &amp; some Chinese govt&nbsp;regulation issues ?","text":"Hmmm will be stiff competition with Tencent & Alibaba & some Chinese govt regulation issues ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108680506","repostId":"1121605010","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108152233,"gmtCreate":1620006773022,"gmtModify":1704337242239,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108152233","repostId":"1176458076","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344242998,"gmtCreate":1618412253214,"gmtModify":1704710496020,"author":{"id":"3571359088752748","authorId":"3571359088752748","name":"StephenC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571359088752748","authorIdStr":"3571359088752748"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344242998","repostId":"1192643222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192643222","pubTimestamp":1618282294,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192643222?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192643222","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to jus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.</li>\n <li>However, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength.</li>\n <li>Using EWT, I reach a target price for Palantir of $102-$145.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b69f78fdf5159903200c5b47d0740da\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>Photo by pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Thesis Summary</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has had investors divided since its IPO’d on the 30th of September. It has gained the support of ARK manager Cathie Woods, but many bears still argue the stock has little room for appreciation in the short term. While some of these arguments have merit, I find myself thinking that many of the alleged “weaknesses” of Palantir are, in fact, strengths. Exposure to government contracts is, in fact, a huge tailwind and strategic advantage, in my opinion, and the argument that “insiders are selling” is overblown. Stock options are the best way of attracting talent, something Palantir has plenty of. Overall, I believe in the technology and growth story, and while profitability is still in question, this should not be an obstacle to the stock appreciating in the next months, years and even decades.</p>\n<p><b>Company Overview</b></p>\n<p>Founded by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) co-founder Peter Thiel in 2003 and is essentially a data analytics company. The company has two main divisions/products: Palantir Gotham, which is used to serve government contracts, and Palantir Foundry, which is a platform offered to private enterprises.</p>\n<p>Here we have the latest annual results:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0f38cad82c2f078a34291183992d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"><span>Source: 10-K</span></p>\n<p>In the last year, Palantir managed to grow its revenues by 47%. In the last quarter of 2020, the company achieved 40%. which is in line with what it expects for the first quarter of 2021. Having said this, the Net loss has actually outpaced the top-line revenue growth by quite a bit. from 2019-2020 Net loss increased by over 100%. While the cost of revenues has remained under control, SGA and R&amp;D have shot through the roof.</p>\n<p>Breaking down revenues into segments, around 85% of the growth came from government contracts, while the commercial side grew by only 4%. However, it is worth mentioning that the company achieved some notable&nbsp;partnerships with Amazon.com’s&nbsp;(AMZN) AWS and also Rio Tinto (RIO). In more recent news, the company has increased its partnership with the government&nbsp;following an $89.9 million contract, and Palantir has also invested in Sarcos Robotics through the&nbsp;Spac Rotor Acquisition&nbsp;(ROT).</p>\n<p><b>Public Contracts are Actually Good</b></p>\n<p>There is a lot to say about Palantir’s latest moves, which have sent the stock up over 5% in the last week. I’d suggest you read fellow SA contributor Steven Fiorillo's&nbsp;article on the matter.</p>\n<p>Today, I’d like to talk about Palantir’s prospects on a more fundamental level and argue against some of the false mantra’s that bears keep pointing out about Palantir, starting with the idea that Palantir is too dependent on government contracts.</p>\n<p>Why is this a problem? As mentioned before, the company increased its revenues from the government by 86%. Arguably a point could be made that these revenues were at risk with the new change in leadership in the White House. However, Palantir continues to drum up business under the Joe Biden administration, in a “segment” that is projected to keep growing steadily.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a271884fd3c558ffabd4dd3c3d130b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\"><span>Source: CBO.Gov</span></p>\n<p>According to the CBO, debt/GDP is projected to reach a ratio of 195% by 2050, essentially double what it is now, at levels only seen before during World War 2. Is this a good thing? For fiscally conservative taxpayers, not so much, for Palantir. Palantir has positioned itself as the leading provider for the government in terms of data analytics and, to a certain extent, cybersecurity. In a world where dependence on the government is rapidly increasing, we can only expect these items to keep going up. Breaking down expenditures, the CBO states that “Major Health Care Programmes” will be the biggest expense items, at 9% of GDP in 2050. Palantir already provides services to the NHS, the U. K’s centralized public healthcare network, and it’s just a matter of time before it signs similar contracts here in the U.S.</p>\n<p>On the last note on this matter, I will also say that Palantir is positioning itself to become a strategic business for the government, and could enjoy the many benefits that this class of business enjoys.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Our software is used by the United States and its allies in Europe and around the world. Some companies work with the United States as well as its adversaries. We do not. We believe that our government and commercial customers value this clarity.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:10-K</p>\n<p>In a world increasingly divided and focused on nationalist practices, Palantir could become a key player for the U.S. government. Indeed, a company too important to fail.</p>\n<p><b>Share dilution is Actually Good</b></p>\n<p>The other point I’d like to dispute here is the idea that insiders are selling because they have no faith in the company. This is wrong on a few levels. First and foremost, Palantir uses stock options to attract talent. This has been the case for years with highly competitive and innovative tech companies and is a great way of rewarding employees for their work as well as aligning their incentives with the firms. The fact that insiders sell shares, is only logical, since they have to exercise their options before they expire, and often this exposes them tovery high tax liabilities.Like with Karp’s most recent sale.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Exercising those options will cost Karp $12.8 million. In return, he will receive stock worth $1.6 billion. That will create a mammoth tax bill and Karp is likely to sell a substantial portion of those shares this year to cover the liability.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Source:Marketwatch.com</p>\n<p>Lastly, I am happy to let the company fund itself through shares if this allows it to keep a strong balance sheet, which is the case with Palantir. With a little under $200 million in long-term debt, the company has a D/E of 0.3 and a current and quick ratio of over 3. Furthermore, debt/cash flow is equal to 0.75.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, I think that the issue of insider selling is overstated. Insiders still hold over 7% of Palantir, a similar proportion for example to the insider ownership of Facebook Inc. (FB).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>It’s hard to value a company like PLTR because it has yet to turn a profit. Even insiders have pointed out that Palantir is a long-term play. One thing is for sure though, Palantir has got many excited, and also has the added benefit of being a popular Ark stock. Therefore, I think Elliot wave Theory could be used here, as I did in myrecent article onPlug Power (PLUG) to arrive at a target price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf22fe861898fb57145c6f49460aecbd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>Source: Author’s work</span></p>\n<p>Since its IPO, Palantir has reached around $45/share. The recent pullback could be seen as a second wave, so as long as the $20 low holds, the third wave could land us anywhere in the target box area, between $102 and 149$. What would be harder to say, is the timeline regarding this appreciation, but I believe it could materialize in the next 2-3 years.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are significant risks faced by Palantir in the coming years. The company has stiff competition, specifically in the private sector, where it has to fight against enterprises that deliver similar services and manage to make a profit. This is perhaps the biggest lingering question over Palantir; can it provide its industry-leading service while still making a profit? Indeed, patience may be the name of the game, as Wall Street estimates have Palantir with flat EPS until 2024.</p>\n<p>The other issue, which could hurt Palantir, is data security and compartmentalization. The NY Times penned an article posing the question:Does Palantir See Too Much?This kind of thought process could limit Palantir’s ability to keep capturing government business.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Without a doubt, Palantir is on road to becoming a key business in big data, especially for the government, which is fond of the idea of keeping a close eye on both its citizens and its enemies. Palantir technology is head and shoulders above the rest, but this comes at the price of high expenses. For investors willing to be patient and let Palantir prove itself, this could be a great time to buy.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Turning Weakness Into Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 10:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418682-palantir-turning-weakness-strength","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1192643222","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir bears often point to insider selling and the weight of government contracts to justify their position.\nHowever, I argue here that what they view as a weakness, is in fact a strength.\nUsing EWT, I reach a target price for Palantir of $102-$145.\n\nPhoto by pixinoo/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has had investors divided since its IPO’d on the 30th of September. It has gained the support of ARK manager Cathie Woods, but many bears still argue the stock has little room for appreciation in the short term. While some of these arguments have merit, I find myself thinking that many of the alleged “weaknesses” of Palantir are, in fact, strengths. Exposure to government contracts is, in fact, a huge tailwind and strategic advantage, in my opinion, and the argument that “insiders are selling” is overblown. Stock options are the best way of attracting talent, something Palantir has plenty of. Overall, I believe in the technology and growth story, and while profitability is still in question, this should not be an obstacle to the stock appreciating in the next months, years and even decades.\nCompany Overview\nFounded by PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) co-founder Peter Thiel in 2003 and is essentially a data analytics company. The company has two main divisions/products: Palantir Gotham, which is used to serve government contracts, and Palantir Foundry, which is a platform offered to private enterprises.\nHere we have the latest annual results:\nSource: 10-K\nIn the last year, Palantir managed to grow its revenues by 47%. In the last quarter of 2020, the company achieved 40%. which is in line with what it expects for the first quarter of 2021. Having said this, the Net loss has actually outpaced the top-line revenue growth by quite a bit. from 2019-2020 Net loss increased by over 100%. While the cost of revenues has remained under control, SGA and R&D have shot through the roof.\nBreaking down revenues into segments, around 85% of the growth came from government contracts, while the commercial side grew by only 4%. However, it is worth mentioning that the company achieved some notable partnerships with Amazon.com’s (AMZN) AWS and also Rio Tinto (RIO). In more recent news, the company has increased its partnership with the government following an $89.9 million contract, and Palantir has also invested in Sarcos Robotics through the Spac Rotor Acquisition (ROT).\nPublic Contracts are Actually Good\nThere is a lot to say about Palantir’s latest moves, which have sent the stock up over 5% in the last week. I’d suggest you read fellow SA contributor Steven Fiorillo's article on the matter.\nToday, I’d like to talk about Palantir’s prospects on a more fundamental level and argue against some of the false mantra’s that bears keep pointing out about Palantir, starting with the idea that Palantir is too dependent on government contracts.\nWhy is this a problem? As mentioned before, the company increased its revenues from the government by 86%. Arguably a point could be made that these revenues were at risk with the new change in leadership in the White House. However, Palantir continues to drum up business under the Joe Biden administration, in a “segment” that is projected to keep growing steadily.\nSource: CBO.Gov\nAccording to the CBO, debt/GDP is projected to reach a ratio of 195% by 2050, essentially double what it is now, at levels only seen before during World War 2. Is this a good thing? For fiscally conservative taxpayers, not so much, for Palantir. Palantir has positioned itself as the leading provider for the government in terms of data analytics and, to a certain extent, cybersecurity. In a world where dependence on the government is rapidly increasing, we can only expect these items to keep going up. Breaking down expenditures, the CBO states that “Major Health Care Programmes” will be the biggest expense items, at 9% of GDP in 2050. Palantir already provides services to the NHS, the U. K’s centralized public healthcare network, and it’s just a matter of time before it signs similar contracts here in the U.S.\nOn the last note on this matter, I will also say that Palantir is positioning itself to become a strategic business for the government, and could enjoy the many benefits that this class of business enjoys.\n\n Our software is used by the United States and its allies in Europe and around the world. Some companies work with the United States as well as its adversaries. We do not. We believe that our government and commercial customers value this clarity.\n\nSource:10-K\nIn a world increasingly divided and focused on nationalist practices, Palantir could become a key player for the U.S. government. Indeed, a company too important to fail.\nShare dilution is Actually Good\nThe other point I’d like to dispute here is the idea that insiders are selling because they have no faith in the company. This is wrong on a few levels. First and foremost, Palantir uses stock options to attract talent. This has been the case for years with highly competitive and innovative tech companies and is a great way of rewarding employees for their work as well as aligning their incentives with the firms. The fact that insiders sell shares, is only logical, since they have to exercise their options before they expire, and often this exposes them tovery high tax liabilities.Like with Karp’s most recent sale.\n\n Exercising those options will cost Karp $12.8 million. In return, he will receive stock worth $1.6 billion. That will create a mammoth tax bill and Karp is likely to sell a substantial portion of those shares this year to cover the liability.\n\nSource:Marketwatch.com\nLastly, I am happy to let the company fund itself through shares if this allows it to keep a strong balance sheet, which is the case with Palantir. With a little under $200 million in long-term debt, the company has a D/E of 0.3 and a current and quick ratio of over 3. Furthermore, debt/cash flow is equal to 0.75.\nIn conclusion, I think that the issue of insider selling is overstated. Insiders still hold over 7% of Palantir, a similar proportion for example to the insider ownership of Facebook Inc. (FB).\nValuation\nIt’s hard to value a company like PLTR because it has yet to turn a profit. Even insiders have pointed out that Palantir is a long-term play. One thing is for sure though, Palantir has got many excited, and also has the added benefit of being a popular Ark stock. Therefore, I think Elliot wave Theory could be used here, as I did in myrecent article onPlug Power (PLUG) to arrive at a target price.\nSource: Author’s work\nSince its IPO, Palantir has reached around $45/share. The recent pullback could be seen as a second wave, so as long as the $20 low holds, the third wave could land us anywhere in the target box area, between $102 and 149$. What would be harder to say, is the timeline regarding this appreciation, but I believe it could materialize in the next 2-3 years.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are significant risks faced by Palantir in the coming years. The company has stiff competition, specifically in the private sector, where it has to fight against enterprises that deliver similar services and manage to make a profit. This is perhaps the biggest lingering question over Palantir; can it provide its industry-leading service while still making a profit? Indeed, patience may be the name of the game, as Wall Street estimates have Palantir with flat EPS until 2024.\nThe other issue, which could hurt Palantir, is data security and compartmentalization. The NY Times penned an article posing the question:Does Palantir See Too Much?This kind of thought process could limit Palantir’s ability to keep capturing government business.\nTakeaway\nWithout a doubt, Palantir is on road to becoming a key business in big data, especially for the government, which is fond of the idea of keeping a close eye on both its citizens and its enemies. Palantir technology is head and shoulders above the rest, but this comes at the price of high expenses. For investors willing to be patient and let Palantir prove itself, this could be a great time to buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}