BabyShark222 personal page - To The Moon

BabyShark222

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-18

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CICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.

2021-08-18

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2021-08-17

Song song to jurong

Asset Management Association of China: Fund managers are prohibited from transferring profits between different asset portfolios.

2021-07-17

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2021-07-18

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2021-08-07

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2021-08-02

$amc$

Xinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.

2021-07-29

Singapore airline

Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.

2021-07-27

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Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?

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portfolios.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>On August 17, the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the \"Guidelines for Professional Conduct and Ethics for Fund Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds,\" which will take effect on the date of its release. 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It proposes that fund managers should establish and improve various systems such as related-party transactions and fair trading, formulate and improve standards and procedures for matters such as related-party identification and related-party transaction price determination, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. Fund managers should treat different asset portfolios fairly and ensure that different asset portfolios have equal investment and trading opportunities through systems such as centralized trading and fair trading.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程，不得向第三方输送利益，不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合，通过集中交易、公平交易等制度，确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$amc$&nbsp;","listText":"$amc$&nbsp;","text":"$amc$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804922385","repostId":"1133915369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133915369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627914060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133915369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133915369","media":"新华社","summary":"如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间考验。","content":"<p><div>BEIJING, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- Summer vacation is here, and milk tea, a popular choice among young people, is about to usher in its peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, Shanghai's market supervision authorities conducted surprise inspections of several brand milk tea shops, including 1 Point, Cha Bai Dao, 7 Fen Tian, coco, and Xiong Ji. They found that unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operating areas, and mixed items and food were common, which attracted public attention. What is the situation in Beijing? Recently, a reporter went undercover at the popular milk tea shop \"Nayuki's Tea\" through random job applications and discovered that several of its branches were infested with cockroaches...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 22:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>BEIJING, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- Summer vacation is here, and milk tea, a popular choice among young people, is about to usher in its peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, Shanghai's market supervision authorities conducted surprise inspections of several brand milk tea shops, including 1 Point, Cha Bai Dao, 7 Fen Tian, coco, and Xiong Ji. They found that unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operating areas, and mixed items and food were common, which attracted public attention. What is the situation in Beijing? Recently, a reporter went undercover at the popular milk tea shop \"Nayuki's Tea\" through random job applications and discovered that several of its branches were infested with cockroaches...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133915369","content_text":"新华社北京8月2日电（记者冯松龄、赵鸿宇）暑期已至，作为深受年轻人追捧的奶茶，将迎来销售旺季。\n但上海市市场监管部门今年上半年对1点点、茶百道、7分甜、都可（coco）、熊姬等多个品牌奶茶店突击检查发现，食品标签不明确、冰箱内食物不加盖、操作区卫生不达标、物品与食品混放等现象普遍存在，引发社会关注。\n北京情况如何？近日，记者通过随机应聘，“卧底”网红奶茶店“奈雪的茶”，发现其多家分店也存在蟑螂乱爬、水果腐烂、抹布不洗、标签不实等问题。\n——蟑螂“不用管”，处理欠规范。\n前不久，记者应聘进入“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，成为一名实习茶饮师，负责面包区“上包”工作，即把后厨做好的面包从货架摆放到橱窗，并帮助顾客选购面包。\n上岗当天，记者看见一只指甲盖大小的蟑螂，从面包展柜底部爬向面包制作间。记者马上报告同组值班店员，但得到“没事，不用管它”的答复。\n“水吧和面包房有蟑螂”在许多店员看来十分“正常”。入职第二天，一些店员告诉记者，虽然店里要求很高，但“忙起来就顾不上那么多了”。\n——腐烂水果继续用，产品标签随意换。\n在“奈雪的茶”长安商场店，一些发黑的芒果摆放在后厨的桌子上，员工被提醒要去掉“黑色”部分继续使用，“不要浪费，稍处理一下即可”。\n记者看到，一些标签纸等杂物不小心掉进芒果泥里，杂物被挑拣出来后芒果泥继续使用。\n一款“软欧包魔法棒”系列产品，按要求应在4小时内售完。但一些员工会将未售完的产品及时更改时间标签再卖。\n奈雪饮品“霸气柠檬油柑”保质期只有一天。但在“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，生产标签为手工输入。因操作失误，出现过工作人员错将当天该品生产日期打成前一天的情况。直到晚上闭店时，店长才发现。工作人员在群中私下处理了此事，相关情况并未对消费者公示，也未采取任何补救措施。\n——手套不戴，抹布不洗。\n记者在工作中看到，员工用同一个手套，同时处理不同的食物，且几乎从不更换。遇到客流高峰期，店长等其他工作人员会直接到后厨上手操作，很多时候不戴手套直接处理食材。\n《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定：“餐具、饮具和盛放直接入口食品的容器，使用前应当洗净、消毒，炊具、用具用后应当洗净，保持清洁。”\n记者在被安排“擦盘子”期间，多次询问店员一块抹布擦几十个盘子是否需清洗抹布，得到“完全不用”的答复。\n奶茶店要求擦拭桌面的毛巾4小时必须更换，每次更换后要打上时间标签。但记者在面包展区仅2天，就遇到了2次没有及时更换的情况。\n——日常卫生很随意，检查一来就重视。\n暗访现场，记者看到，不少员工直接踩着清洗食材的桌面，从较高橱柜中取食材，且未做任何清洁处理。\n但每次上级来检查时，店员们就会临时整理地面卫生，对平日较为繁杂的后厨进行系统清理，紧急清洗各种机器。\n“奈茶的雪”并非个案。北京市市场监管局此前在突击检查中发现，部分茶饮店使用过期的、不新鲜或“三无”物料等问题，并责令其整改。\n今年6月，南京市玄武区市场监管局公布的专项抽检结果显示，喜茶在微生物、糖类方面存在风险。而在2018年、2019年喜茶也均出现喝出“异物”等问题。\n为严查严管各种网红奶茶店不合格现象，国家市场监管总局在2018年6月12日发布《关于加强现制现售奶茶果蔬汁监督管理的通知》，提出了对网红饮品的具体管理、监督要求。\n中国农业大学食品学院副教授朱毅认为，奶茶店遍地，同质化严重，竞争激烈加上原材料涨价，同时外卖形态占比增加，不少消费者并没机会看实体店面，这就造成了店家忙于挣钱，疏于管理，应付监管，卫生成了共性问题。\n“如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间的考验。”中国消费者权益保护法学研究会副秘书长陈音江认为，奶茶经营者除了打造“IP”，应更多把精力和成本花在产品质量把关上，为消费者提供安全放心的产品，才能越走越远。（参与采写：孙雨晨、简子奇）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453829,"gmtCreate":1627529842261,"gmtModify":1703491784290,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore air","listText":"Singapore air","text":"Singapore air","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453829","repostId":"1132865544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132865544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627528498,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132865544?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Federal Reserve is dovish again: How much longer can Powell hold out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132865544","media":"格隆汇","summary":"加息依然是一件遥远的事情。","content":"<p>At 2:00 AM on July 29, the Federal Reserve once again issued a dovish statement.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's decision to keep Federal Funds rate unchanged at zero to 0.25% is in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program and assess economic performance in real time until the U.S. economy makes real-time progress. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that rate hike remains a distant dream.</p><p>After the tone was set, the US financial markets reacted considerably:</p><p>The S&P 500 once rose rapidly from a 0.23% decline to 0.31%, before its gains retreated. The same was true for the Nasdaq index, which rose significantly after the interest rate meeting before falling slightly at the close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415e9f7af67436418b84d2153ff47374\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>the US Dollar Index reacted sharply, plunging from 92.7558 points to 92.2391, a drop of 0.56%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2674278b7cc513646374db864237b7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In gold, COMEX rose rapidly from $1,793 to $1,808, an increase of 0.83%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e246f73a677374c9fb27c2b560f1ebd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, there were no significant changes in the US Treasury Bond market. As of the latest update, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is 1.238%, remaining at the same level as in February of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bd988aa602cf0c3fff064a99638964\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the overall feedback from the US financial markets, the outcome of this interest rate meeting was largely in line with market expectations, and there were no hawkish statements calling for a radical shift in currency policy.</p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its interest rate decision, Powell made several statements at the press conference:</p><p>Regarding the Delta virus issue, Powell stated that in the event of the spread of the Delta strain, we can only remain observant. The outbreak last winter did have an impact on employment, and the Delta strain may affect the full recovery of the labor market, but this year the Delta strain may have a smaller impact on the economy. As long as the COVID-19 pandemic does not end, no one can guarantee safety, and it is necessary to ensure that vaccines are administered globally.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell stated that the inflation rate has risen significantly and is expected to exceed 2% in the coming months, remaining high for the next few months before easing. Inflation is still expected to fall below the long-term target of 2%, which may be higher and more persistent than expected. Long-term inflation expectations remain within the Federal Reserve's target, and the Fed is prepared to adjust its policy if the inflation path significantly and continuously exceeds the target.</p><p>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve has assessed the considerations behind adjusting its bond purchases, but it is still some distance from making substantial progress. The Fed will assess economic progress at its next few meetings, so it is still some distance from considering rate hike.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has not yet made any decision on the timing of tapering quantitative easing. For the first time, the meeting held in-depth discussions on the timing, pace, and composition of reducing the scale of bond purchases, but no decisions were made. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has many different views on when tapering is appropriate, but almost no one supports reducing purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) first, and then reducing purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, which would simultaneously reduce purchases of MBS and Treasury Bond. FOMC members also have many different views on reducing the timing of bond purchases. July was a good policy meeting, but the timing of tapering QE has not yet been decided.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve continues to stubbornly support monetary easing and maintains the statement that \"inflation is only temporary,\" it still faces considerable risks of a sharp monetary turn under real pressure.</p><p>In June of this year, the U.S. CPI climbed to 5.4%, compared to the expected 4.9% increase and the previous 5%, marking the largest year-on-year increase since 2008. The U.S. core CPI rose 4.5% year-on-year in June, compared to the expected 4.0% increase and the previous value of 3.8%, a 30-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b247f2b5a95c6d780dfad44c8cf041d2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the spread of the Delta virus has cast a shadow over the global economy. As of July 28, there were more than 195 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with more than 4.18 million deaths.</p><p>In the past week, eight more countries and regions have discovered the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, which has spread to 132 countries and regions.</p><p>Global COVID-19 cases increased by 8% last week, exceeding 3.8 million. The latest data shows that cases in the Americas and the Western Pacific have risen sharply, with increases of 30% and 25% respectively. This has led to a significant increase in the overall COVID-19 death toll, rising 21% compared to last week, reaching more than 69,000.</p><p>Over the past seven days, the United States has reported the highest number of new cases, with more than 500,000 new infections, an increase of 131%. U.S. infectious disease expert Fauci said on July 26 that, given that half of the U.S. population has not yet been vaccinated, data modeling predicts that the U.S. faces a worst-case scenario of 4,000 deaths per day, which is expected to be the same as the peak of last winter. American media predict that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States will peak again around October.</p><p>The resurgence of the pandemic in the United States will have a certain impact on the relatively good momentum of economic recovery. On the one hand, inflation continues to rise, and on the other hand, the foundation for economic recovery is very fragile, and it is also facing the impact of the pandemic again, which has led to the economy facing the risk of a \"stagflation\". This is the most difficult economic situation for central banks.</p><p>Of course, the resurgence of the pandemic in the United States will give the Federal Reserve more excuses to continue its QE policy. But the essence behind it is to stabilize the financial market, which is at an absolute historical high, and to protect the interests of Wall Street. But the biggest pressure behind this mysterious operation stems from the specter of inflation that has escaped Pandora's box. Inflation, which is already out of control, will not disappear for no reason. Without monetary contraction, it would be self-deceptive to expect inflation to naturally peak and fall sharply.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve is dovish again: How much longer can Powell hold out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve is dovish again: How much longer can Powell hold out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At 2:00 AM on July 29, the Federal Reserve once again issued a dovish statement.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's decision to keep Federal Funds rate unchanged at zero to 0.25% is in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve reiterated that it will maintain its $120 billion monthly asset purchase program and assess economic performance in real time until the U.S. economy makes real-time progress. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that rate hike remains a distant dream.</p><p>After the tone was set, the US financial markets reacted considerably:</p><p>The S&P 500 once rose rapidly from a 0.23% decline to 0.31%, before its gains retreated. The same was true for the Nasdaq index, which rose significantly after the interest rate meeting before falling slightly at the close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415e9f7af67436418b84d2153ff47374\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>the US Dollar Index reacted sharply, plunging from 92.7558 points to 92.2391, a drop of 0.56%, hitting a two-week low.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce2674278b7cc513646374db864237b7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In gold, COMEX rose rapidly from $1,793 to $1,808, an increase of 0.83%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e246f73a677374c9fb27c2b560f1ebd\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, there were no significant changes in the US Treasury Bond market. As of the latest update, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond is 1.238%, remaining at the same level as in February of this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bd988aa602cf0c3fff064a99638964\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from the overall feedback from the US financial markets, the outcome of this interest rate meeting was largely in line with market expectations, and there were no hawkish statements calling for a radical shift in currency policy.</p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its interest rate decision, Powell made several statements at the press conference:</p><p>Regarding the Delta virus issue, Powell stated that in the event of the spread of the Delta strain, we can only remain observant. The outbreak last winter did have an impact on employment, and the Delta strain may affect the full recovery of the labor market, but this year the Delta strain may have a smaller impact on the economy. As long as the COVID-19 pandemic does not end, no one can guarantee safety, and it is necessary to ensure that vaccines are administered globally.</p><p>Regarding inflation, Powell stated that the inflation rate has risen significantly and is expected to exceed 2% in the coming months, remaining high for the next few months before easing. Inflation is still expected to fall below the long-term target of 2%, which may be higher and more persistent than expected. Long-term inflation expectations remain within the Federal Reserve's target, and the Fed is prepared to adjust its policy if the inflation path significantly and continuously exceeds the target.</p><p>Powell stated that the Federal Reserve has assessed the considerations behind adjusting its bond purchases, but it is still some distance from making substantial progress. The Fed will assess economic progress at its next few meetings, so it is still some distance from considering rate hike.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has not yet made any decision on the timing of tapering quantitative easing. For the first time, the meeting held in-depth discussions on the timing, pace, and composition of reducing the scale of bond purchases, but no decisions were made. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has many different views on when tapering is appropriate, but almost no one supports reducing purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) first, and then reducing purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds, which would simultaneously reduce purchases of MBS and Treasury Bond. FOMC members also have many different views on reducing the timing of bond purchases. July was a good policy meeting, but the timing of tapering QE has not yet been decided.</p><p>Although the Federal Reserve continues to stubbornly support monetary easing and maintains the statement that \"inflation is only temporary,\" it still faces considerable risks of a sharp monetary turn under real pressure.</p><p>In June of this year, the U.S. CPI climbed to 5.4%, compared to the expected 4.9% increase and the previous 5%, marking the largest year-on-year increase since 2008. The U.S. core CPI rose 4.5% year-on-year in June, compared to the expected 4.0% increase and the previous value of 3.8%, a 30-year high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b247f2b5a95c6d780dfad44c8cf041d2\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the spread of the Delta virus has cast a shadow over the global economy. As of July 28, there were more than 195 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with more than 4.18 million deaths.</p><p>In the past week, eight more countries and regions have discovered the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus, which has spread to 132 countries and regions.</p><p>Global COVID-19 cases increased by 8% last week, exceeding 3.8 million. The latest data shows that cases in the Americas and the Western Pacific have risen sharply, with increases of 30% and 25% respectively. This has led to a significant increase in the overall COVID-19 death toll, rising 21% compared to last week, reaching more than 69,000.</p><p>Over the past seven days, the United States has reported the highest number of new cases, with more than 500,000 new infections, an increase of 131%. U.S. infectious disease expert Fauci said on July 26 that, given that half of the U.S. population has not yet been vaccinated, data modeling predicts that the U.S. faces a worst-case scenario of 4,000 deaths per day, which is expected to be the same as the peak of last winter. American media predict that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States will peak again around October.</p><p>The resurgence of the pandemic in the United States will have a certain impact on the relatively good momentum of economic recovery. On the one hand, inflation continues to rise, and on the other hand, the foundation for economic recovery is very fragile, and it is also facing the impact of the pandemic again, which has led to the economy facing the risk of a \"stagflation\". This is the most difficult economic situation for central banks.</p><p>Of course, the resurgence of the pandemic in the United States will give the Federal Reserve more excuses to continue its QE policy. But the essence behind it is to stabilize the financial market, which is at an absolute historical high, and to protect the interests of Wall Street. But the biggest pressure behind this mysterious operation stems from the specter of inflation that has escaped Pandora's box. Inflation, which is already out of control, will not disappear for no reason. Without monetary contraction, it would be self-deceptive to expect inflation to naturally peak and fall sharply.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478013\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/478013","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1132865544","content_text":"7月29日凌晨2点，美联储再度放出鸽声表态。\n美联储决定将联邦基金利率维持在零至0.25%不变，符合市场预期。美联储重申将保持每月1200亿美元的资产购买计划不变，并实时评估经济表现，直至美国经济取得实时性进展。美联储主席鲍威尔强调，加息依然是一件遥远的事情。\n定调之后，美国金融市场对此反馈不小：\n标普500一度从下跌0.23%快速上拉至0.31%，后涨幅回落。纳斯达克指数同样如此，在利率会议之后有较大幅度的拉升，尾盘稍有回落。\n\n美元指数反应非常剧烈，从92.7558点快速跳水至92.2391，跳水幅度高达0.56%，创下两周新低。\n\n黄金方面，COMEX从1793美元快速拉升至1808美元，拉升幅度0.83%。\n\n不过，美国国债市场异动不明显。截止最新，10年期美国国债收益率为1.238%，继续维持与今年2月一个水平。\n\n从美国金融市场整体反馈来看，本次议息结果基本符合市场预期，没有出现要激进转弯货币的鹰派表态。\n在美联储公布利率决议后，鲍威尔在发布会上有诸多表态：\n对于德尔塔病毒问题，鲍威尔称，在德尔塔毒株传播的情况下，只能保持观察。去年冬天的疫情确实对就业产生了影响，德尔塔毒株可能会影响劳动力市场完全恢复，但今年德尔塔毒株对经济的影响可能会小一些。只要新冠肺炎疫情不结束，没有人能保证安全，有必要确保疫苗在全球范围内接种。\n对于通胀问题，鲍威尔表示，通货膨胀率显著上升，预计未来几个月的通胀率将超过2%，并将在未来几个月保持高位，然后再缓和。通胀仍有望降至2%的长期目标，可能会比预期的更高、更持久。而长期通胀预期仍在美联储的目标之内，如果通胀路径大幅且持续超出目标，美联储准备调整政策。\n鲍威尔称，美联储评估了调整购债的考虑因素，但离取得实质性进展还有一段距离，美联储将在接下来几次会议上评估经济进展，因此离考虑加息还有一段距离。\n鲍威尔表示，美联储还没有就缩减量化宽松的时机做出任何决定。此次会议首次就缩减购债规模的时间、速度和组成进行了深入讨论，但没有做出任何决定。关于何时缩债是合适的，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）有很多不同的观点，不过几乎没有人支持先减少购买抵押支持债券（MBS），再缩减对美债的购买力度，将会同时缩减MBS和国债购买。FOMC成员们在缩减购债的时间方面也有很多不同的看法。7月份是一次不错的政策会议，但尚未决定减码QE的时间。\n虽然美联储依旧硬扛货币宽松，依旧延续“通胀只是暂时的”说法，但现实的压力之下，接下来仍然面临不小的货币急转弯的风险。\n今年6月，美国CPI攀升至5.4%，预期增长4.9%，前值5%，是自2008年以来的最大同比增幅。美国6月核心CPI同比增长4.5%，预期增长4.0%，前值3.8%，创30年新高。\n\n此外，德尔塔病毒的肆掠给全球经济蒙上了阴霾。截至7月28日，全球新冠确诊病例超过1.95亿例，死亡人数超过418万人。\n过去一周，又有8个国家和地区发现德尔塔新冠变种病毒，该变种病毒已传播至132个国家和地区。\n上周全球新冠感染病例增加了8%，超过380万病例。最新数据显示，美洲和西太平洋地区病例大幅上涨，增幅分别为30%和25%。这导致新冠死亡人数整体大幅上升，与上周相比上升了21%，达到6.9万多人。\n在过去7天里，美国报告的新病例数量最高，新增感染超过50万例，增幅高达131%。美国传染病专家福奇7月26日表示，鉴于美国半数人口仍未完成接种，根据数据建模预测，美国面临最坏情况是每天死亡人数达到4000人，预去年冬季的高峰期持平。而美国的媒体预测10月左右美国的新冠疫情将再度进入高峰期。\n美国方面的疫情卷土重来，会对较好的经济复苏势头造成一定冲击。一方面通胀持续攀升，另一方面经济恢复的基础非常脆弱，还再度面临疫情的冲击，以致于经济接下来面临“滞涨”风险。这是令央行们最为棘手的经济状态。\n当然，美国疫情的再度恶化会给美联储更多的托词，来延续QE政策。但背后实质是维稳处于历史绝对高位的金融市场，维护华尔街利益。但这种迷之操作背后，最大的压力源于已经逃出潘多拉魔盒的通胀幽灵。已经处于“失控”状态的通胀，不会平白无故消失。没有货币层面的收缩，期盼着通胀自然筑顶大幅回落恐怕有些自欺欺人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453050,"gmtCreate":1627529817770,"gmtModify":1703491783483,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore airline","listText":"Singapore airline","text":"Singapore airline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453050","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195922259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627527847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195922259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195922259","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。","content":"<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">巴伦周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA\">巴伦周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa1cab0c234d687b17edd1782d0366e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195922259","content_text":"吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）是一个混杂了专业知识与街头智慧的投资家，没有人会忽视他对经济大势的判断。罗杰斯近期发出警告，在新冠疫情之后，世界经济拿到了最糟糕的剧本，一场比「雷曼时刻」更大的危机必然会到来。\n那么，等到危机真正来临时，我们应该怎么办？吉姆·罗杰斯告诫我们，不要太过于相信常识，因为任何常识每隔十五年都会迎来戏剧性的反转。本文选自本书第三章《危机来临时，我们应该怎么办？》，它记录了罗杰斯的危机应对指南。\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话「以史为镜，可以知兴替」，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓「红色帝国」便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的「终极胜利」，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的「历史终结论」。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，「危机」这个词是由「危」和「机」两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的「社会经济」版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：「上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！」可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：「感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！」\n不错。无论是「9·11」事件这样的人祸，还是「日本大海啸」这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：「没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。」\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：「留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。」\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对「十五年后自己的人生将截然不同」这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的「大萧条」中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：「永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。」我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：「永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。」这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓「不熟不做」的道理。\n所有人都喜欢「热点消息」「独家情报」。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点「内部消息」，都希望从我嘴里说一句「哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！」可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？「我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！」——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓「热点消息」「独家情报」了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择「按兵不动」，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的「购买俄罗斯债券」的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：「应该如何投资俄罗斯？」我的回答一定是：「如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。」就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：「美元是安全的避难所。」没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪「金银无用论」，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即「认为」这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到「缺乏速度感」的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：「现金为王」，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809410569,"gmtCreate":1627386333851,"gmtModify":1703488873060,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809410569","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120859674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1627352185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120859674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120859674","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","content":"<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 10:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6f6a5034baf0d08c9227da13ca9733","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120859674","content_text":"文/贾铭\n7月23日，一份名为《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》的中办发文件在网络流传。《意见》包含，严禁教育培训机构“资本化”运作，学科类培训机构一律不得上市融资等措施，海外上市的教育类股票应声而跌。比如，新东方在港交所的股价一度“腰斩”（新东方S，23号收跌40.61%，26号再收跌47.02%；新东方在线23号和26号分别收跌28.07%、33.45%；新东方在美股收盘跌幅23号为54.22%），23号，高途在美股跌幅达63.26%，好未来跌幅更是超过70%。\n官方已经于7月24日晚正式公布该文件，多家媒体有全文转发，感兴趣的读者可以找来看。\n今天这篇文章，并不分析中办的40号文，而是想探讨两个问题。\n第一，为什么这么多中国企业选择在美上市？\n第二，考虑到中美关系、瑞幸造假、滴滴下架等事件，在海外上市的这些中概股，未来命运如何？\n主要原因\n中国企业在美国的证券交易所上市的热情，差不多超过其他任何非美国的企业，即使在中美关系明显遇冷之后，依然如此。\n2019年，有32家企业赴美上市，2020年为34家，2021年上半年，已完成赴美上市的企业有37家。据wind数据，截至2021年7月，共有286家中国企业在美国上市——包括那些注册在中国香港或者开曼群岛等离岸中心，但大部分收入和利润来自中国内地的企业——事实上，大部分在美国上市的中国企业，基本都采取了这种上市方式。\n2018年以来，美国在打压中国科技企业的同时，提高了对赴美上市中国企业的审计要求，中企赴美上市的整体环境并不佳，那为什么中国企业仍毅然选择赴美上市呢？\n众所周知的几个原因是：\n第一，美国的资本市场建设比较早，融资体系和法律法规相对来讲更加成熟和完善。从总体融资环境看，美国对于互联网公司、高科技公司普遍看好，同样的一只股票，在美国上市，相对容易获得更高的估值，募集更多的资金。\n第二，更重要的是，美国资本市场采取注册制，对于拟上市公司不设盈利门槛。只要你的公司业务高速增长，占据很大的市场份额，即便亏损也能上市。我国采取审核制，申请A股上市的必要条件是连续三年盈利。\n互联网企业成长很快，所以总是非常缺钱。有的互联网企业，或许仅仅创立几年，就成为了估值超过十亿的独角兽，这时候面临投资人变现的压力和进一步发展的压力，就要准备上市做大规模筹资了，但是多数企业这时候可能才刚刚开始盈利，甚至还没有盈利，所以达不到连续三年盈利的条件，也就无法在A股市场上市融资。要是等两三年后再去上市筹资，不仅可能错过最好的发展时机，融不到资，企业能不能活下去都成了未知数。所以，只能去国外。\n第三，我国的上市审批周期长短不定，遇到上市审批暂停，企业想上市，整个流程长的话可能要三四年。时间就是金钱，很多企业等不起。\n以上三个原因，尤其是第二和第三，应该是中国企业赴美上市最主要的两个原因。但除此之外，还有以下几个原因不应该被忽视。\n\n出身原因\n我们现在经常说，中国的互联网企业做的很好。我们又通常把2000年前后，称为中国的互联网元年。但我们不能忘记，在互联网发展初期，没有几个人能看得懂这种业态，所以这些企业不可能拿到银行贷款。\n其实不仅仅是互联网初创期，所有企业初创期，都很难拿到银行贷款。由于商业银行严格的贷款审批手续和天生的风险厌恶属性，它宁愿少赚点贷款利息，也更愿意把钱贷给四平八稳的企业。\n银行本来就不是给初创企业投资的机构，给初创企业投资，应该是天使投资人和风投机构干的事儿，而我国那时候没有什么风险投资（VC）和私募股权（PE）。这些互联网企业在国内找不到钱，但发展又需要钱，怎么办？只能引进境外资本。\n要知道，我们的改革开放早期，也是用境内的市场换境外的资本和技术。所以还是邓公说的好，管它黑猫白猫，能抓老鼠就是好猫。资本本是中性，无所谓好坏，如果只是用地域作为分类依据，当然是可以的。但如果要做价值判断，更重要的是要看这些资本被用来做的具体的事情，而不是这些资本的出身。\n所以，我国的很多互联网巨头（为了避免不必要的麻烦，这里就不举例了），在设立之初，就是中外合资企业。这又引出了另一个问题：VIE架构的合法性问题。\n可变利益实体架构（Variable Interest Entity），简称VIE架构，通常被称为“协议控制”，是指拟上市公司在境外注册的上市实体，与内地业务经营主体分离，由境外上市实体透过协议方式控制境内业务经营主体，并把收入和利润转移到境外公司。VIE架构又衍生出很多不同的形式，但本质是一样的，这里不展开。\n因为我国法律对境外资金在“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”的行业准入有严格限制，不允许境外资本直接投资电信、互联网相关企业。当然也不允许这些行业的公司直接在海外集资或者上市。所以，这些企业采取VIE架构绕开监管。\n监管当然知道这种形式，之所以没有完全禁绝，一方面是这种架构并不“明显违法”，另一方面当然也是一种监管智慧。\n但这种企业在境内上市的话，还是要严格按照上市的监管要求，那这种VIE架构的合法性就成了问题，所以不能直接境内上市。\n这就意味着，一部分互联网企业从诞生的那天起，根就是歪的。根不歪就活不下来，活下来了又留下了不好的出身——“缺钱-引进外资-变成合资企业-采取VIE架构-境内上市的合法性有问题-境外上市”。\n现在好多了，我国的多层次资本市场建设越来越完善，人民币风投和私募也多了，在国内找不到钱的问题，得到了很大的缓解。\n王小波在《沉默的大多数》中说，做价值判断太容易了，如果我们是一只公兔子，我们天然就知道大灰狼坏，母兔子好。但兔子不知道怎么背九九乘法表。搞清楚上面这个背景，就有点九九乘法表的意思，无论我们对互联网企业去境外上市做出何种价值评价——如何评价是我们的自由——但起码我们的评判是基于事情完整的来龙去脉做出来的。\n\n其他原因\n还有两个原因分别是，资本的自由流通和同股不同权的追求。\n如前所述，由于很多企业的资金来源包括国际私募基金和风险投资公司，而中国又实行外汇管制，在境内上市，风投资金获利退出会很麻烦，有汇兑风险，所以他们也有动力鼓励企业所有者在境外上市。有的企业所有者有做跨国企业的雄心，也愿意在美国上市，这既有利于拓展企业的知名度，又有利于企业募资和资产的全球布局，一举多得。\n又得啰嗦一点，私募和风投吃的就是高风险高收益这碗饭，只要他们能遵纪守法地赚钱，就不能说人家在企业上市后获利退出有什么不对。当然，如果违法乱纪，那必然是要依法追责的。\n有人可能会问，在香港上市，资本也可以自由流动啊。上市公司创业者与早期投资者可以轻松地将上市筹集的港元兑换成美元或其他任何货币。这就到了另一个原因，“同股同权”和“同股不同权”。\n在我国内地上市的公司要严格遵守同股同权的条例，即你拥有该公司多少股份，在重大事件投票时就拥有多少的投票权，这就是很多公司不想上市的原因，害怕上市之后拥有的股份不多，导致公司创始人在董事会说不上话甚至会被踢出局。这也是之前流行的“野蛮人”恶意收购的原因，只要别人持有比你更多的股份，哪怕你是创始人，也会被踢出局。\n在2018年以前，在香港上市，也是同股同权的要求。2018年，港交所推出了一项改革，允许科技企业和生命科学领域里的企业采用美国式的同股不同权的结构。此后，越来越多的中国企业选择在香港上市，或者在中国香港和美国纽约两地同时挂牌。\n不是说同股同权不好。凡事都是有利有弊。同股同权要求持股不多的创始人谨慎上市，因为上市后可能被架空甚至踢出决策层，但谨慎上市又可能拖慢企业发展的速度，错过黄金发展期。\n赴美上市提供了一个同股不同权的选项，这就意味着，即使持有企业小于50%的股权，哪怕只持有10%甚至更低，也可以保持对企业的控制权。虽然方便了企业上市融资，但这很容易导致“内部人控制”问题。由于企业的实际控制人并不是最大的股东，那股东利益与经营者利益存在冲突的时候，实控人就容易假公济私，中饱私囊，或者采取一些风险比较大的经营行为。在一些国家，同股不同权被认为是企业治理问题的根源之一。\n\n信任危机\n前文基本解释了中国企业为啥更愿意去美国上市，有各种原因，有监管制度上的，有企业经营上的，总体而言，是一种很正常的趋利避害的商业行为。\n但中美贸易冲突升级以后，美国接连制裁中国的企业，有一些就是在美上市的中国企业。这增大了在美上市的风险，已经上市的部分企业，即使没有被制裁，因两国国际关系变动而带来的风险也在变大。2020年，瑞幸财务造假，更加剧了中概股的信任危机。\n特朗普政府趁机在任期结束之前签署《外国公司问责法案》，威胁说，如果中国方面连续三年不能够让美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）获得审计工作底稿，中国的上市企业将会被美国证券交易所摘牌。\n2021年6月22日，美国参议院又通过了另一项提案，提出退市时间可以提前一年。\n美国威胁要让中国企业退市的直接理由是保护美国投资者免受类似于去年瑞幸咖啡那样的会计造假带来的损失。说实话，这看起来其实挺有道理。财务造假是犯罪，不仅美国，我们相信任何一个国家的资本市场都要打击财务造假。\n但这里有几个问题。\n第一，中美双方一直在就审计底稿的问题进行磋商，但为啥现在突然翻脸。\n2009年，我国出台法律，要求企业“在境外发行证券与上市过程中，提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内”。\n2013年，我国和美国的PCAOB签署了一份合作谅解备忘录，并向PCAOB提供了4家企业的审计工作底稿。\n2016年到2019年，双方监管部门也一直就如何来有效地检查，有过一些合作尝试。关系好的时候有商有量，关系不好的时候就有点翻脸不认人的意思。\n第二，提供会计底稿是不是打击财务造假的一种有效形式。\n美国的证券市场监管法规一直在不断升级，比如2002年针对安然公司财务造假事件对《1933年证券法》《1934年证券交易法》做出大幅修订，形成了《2002年上市公司会计改革和投资者保护法案》（Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002），简称《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》，在公司治理、会计职业监管、证券市场监管等方面作出了许多新的规定。这事实上既有利于保护上市公司，也有利于保护投资者，是好事儿。\n但《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》之后建立的美国上市公司会计监督委员会已经可以审阅上市公司的审计底稿了，可之后又出现了世通、南方保健、房地美、美国国际集团和雷曼兄弟的会计问题。而大多数比较严重的会计造假事件，往往是由专业的卖空机构，通过使用“私服暗访”实地调查公司业务流量等技巧手段发现问题的，审计公司不会使用这些手段。\n美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）不一定能通过审计工作底稿来发现这些财务造假。换言之，审计底稿或许有助于打击财务造假，但并不是一种必不可少的方式，也不总是百分百有效。\n第三，《外国公司问责法案》的重要目标就是中概股公司，但美国不是第一天知道中国上市公司采用VIE架构。如果美国认为VIE架构有问题，那直接禁止中概股上市即可。\n两国在关系友好的时候，审计底稿并不是一个很重要的问题，两国可以协商解决，合作监管，因为互相信任。现在这种互信没有了。\n\n未雨绸缪\n我们希望中美关系可以在新的竞争关系中复归友好。但如果两国的隔阂越来越大，那在美上市的中国企业，确实需要做好两手准备。\n对中美两国来讲，中国企业从美国市场退市，似乎都不是难以承受的代价。\n对美国来讲，尽管中概股的波动比较大，但中概股的整体表现优于大部分美国上市公司股票，中国企业财务造假带来的损失，也远小于安然、雷曼这些美国公司。\n如果中概股退市，美国投资者会失去一个比较好的投资标的。但中概股退市后可以去港股和A股上市，如果美国投资者依旧看好中国企业，可以继续在香港地区通过合格境外投资者机制（QFII）或者互联互通机制买进，进行投资。\n对中国来讲，我国是一个高储蓄国家和资本净出口国，并非一定要在美国上市募资。我国自己的资本市场也在逐渐完善，注册制也在科创板试点，很可能不久后的未来就会全面铺开，未来中国企业在国内上市的便利度会大幅度提升，虽然在A股或者港股上市，估值很可能有缩水，但这对整个国家来讲，并不是什么不可接受的挑战。\n所以，如果中国企业在美退市，对两国来讲并不是什么不可接受的事件，那它们的命运就更多地受国际关系和历史进程的影响。这时候，企业应该做的就是未雨绸缪，防患于未然。\n谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513050":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800811255,"gmtCreate":1627290274977,"gmtModify":1703486870991,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800811255","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173973868,"gmtCreate":1626608998454,"gmtModify":1703762288182,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173973868","repostId":"1133530572","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133530572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626592326,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133530572?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 15:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"That's too strong! More than 20 A-share companies have revised their first-half earnings forecasts upwards!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133530572","media":"上海证券报","summary":"要么主业好，要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计，6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外","content":"<p><div>Either the main business is good, or the investment is strong. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, since June, more than 20 A-share companies, including Lion Microelectronics, Weiming Pharmaceutical, Hefei Urban Construction, Xuedilong, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Hongbo Shares, Zangge Holdings, Haowu Shares, and Xuefeng Technology, have revised their semi-annual report forecasts upwards. In addition, newcomers to the stock market, such as Dongpeng Special Drink, Qipai Technology, Electric Wind Power, and Nanomicro Technology, announced that their latest expected semi-annual results will be higher than the semi-annual results forecast when their prospectuses were disclosed. Judging from the announcements, most companies are operating in high-growth sectors such as the chemical, steel, and lithium industry chains, and their core business performance has exceeded expectations...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>That's too strong! More than 20 A-share companies have revised their first-half earnings forecasts upwards!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThat's too strong! More than 20 A-share companies have revised their first-half earnings forecasts upwards!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-18 15:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Either the main business is good, or the investment is strong. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, since June, more than 20 A-share companies, including Lion Microelectronics, Weiming Pharmaceutical, Hefei Urban Construction, Xuedilong, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Hongbo Shares, Zangge Holdings, Haowu Shares, and Xuefeng Technology, have revised their semi-annual report forecasts upwards. In addition, newcomers to the stock market, such as Dongpeng Special Drink, Qipai Technology, Electric Wind Power, and Nanomicro Technology, announced that their latest expected semi-annual results will be higher than the semi-annual results forecast when their prospectuses were disclosed. Judging from the announcements, most companies are operating in high-growth sectors such as the chemical, steel, and lithium industry chains, and their core business performance has exceeded expectations...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133530572","content_text":"要么主业好，要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计，6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外，东鹏特饮、气派科技、电气风电、纳微科技等“股市新兵”则公告称，最新预计半年度业绩将高于招股书披露时预告的半年报业绩。\n\n从公告来看，处于化工、钢铁、锂产业链等高景气度赛道，主业表现超预期成为多数公司上修业绩的主因。另外，旅游等去年受疫情影响较大的企业，因在今年逐步恢复，带动企业扭亏为盈。柘中股份、明牌珠宝等则因股权投资有所斩获，也大幅上修业绩预告。\n行业高景气\n锂产业链、化工等表现抢眼\n7月14日晚，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业两大锂产业链公司同时上修半年报预增幅度。\n赣锋锂业从此前预盈8亿元至12亿元，上修至预盈13亿元至16亿元，同比大增730.75%至922.46%。天齐锂业则从此前预计亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元，调整为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元，同比扭亏为盈。\n\n 图片来源：东方财富\n对于上半年业绩“超预期”的原因，拥有五大类逾40种锂化合物及金属锂产品生产能力的赣锋锂业在公告中直言“产品售价超预期”。\n今年以来，得益于公司产品产销两旺，且销售均价同比上涨，赣锋锂业净利润增长迅速。第一季度，公司实现营收16.07亿元，同比增长48.94%；实现净利润4.76亿元，同比大增6046.30%。得益于产品售价超预期，且公司持有的Pilbara等金融资产公允价值增长，赣锋锂业上修半年度业绩至预盈13亿元至16亿元。\n再看天齐锂业，作为以锂为核心的新能源材料企业，公司拥有合计约4.48万吨/年的锂化工产品产能。此外，还有4.8万吨/年氢氧化锂、2万吨/年电池级碳酸锂的在建项目，中期锂化工产品规划产能合计超过11万吨/年。\n2021年第一季度，天齐锂业实现营收9.04亿元，同比微降6.63%。彼时，天齐锂业在一季报中表示，在不考虑因SQM股价变动对领式期权公允价值波动等，无法合理预计的非经营性活动带来的影响背景下，预计上半年将亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元。\n最新的半年度业绩预告修正公告显示，因SQM股价变动，公司持有的SQM的B类股领式期权业务产生的公允价值变动收益较预计增加，且公司主要锂化合物产品销量和销售均价预计增长，公司上修上半年净利润为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元，同比扭亏为盈。\n\n图片来源：国联证券研报\n“公司所处行业细分领域市场景气度不断提升，市场需求旺盛，公司销售订单饱满，产品供不应求，公司营收同比稳步增长；衢州硅片基地产能大幅释放，综合规模效益凸显。”立昂微在业绩预增公告中直言。\n2021年一季度立昂微实现营收4.62亿元，同比增长49.21%；实现净利润7579.45万元，同比增长133.38%。\n立昂微曾在一季报中预计上半年净利润将同比增长100%以上。而公司半年度业绩预告显示，预计上半年将实现净利润2.03亿元至2.15亿元，同比增长166.37至182.11%。\n在行业景气度持续提升背景下，金浦钛业、海洋王、四川美丰、精功科技等亦上修了半年度业绩预期。金浦钛业从预盈8660.29万元至9091.15万元，修正为预盈1.10亿元至1.15亿元。\n公司称，钛白粉市场持续回暖，钛白粉销售价格较上年同期涨幅较多；公司主营产品钛白粉量价齐升，推动公司净利润同比涨幅较多。而受益于专业领域LED等新光源对传统光源的替代，以及专业市场对节能降耗需求的日益增长等，海洋王上修上半年净利润为8549.52万元至9689.45万元，同比增长50%至70%。\n主营尿素、复合肥、氮氧化物还原剂等化工产品制造与销售的四川美丰表示，行业景气度持续提升下，公司部分主营产品市场价格较上年同期出现较大增长，盈利水平同比增幅明显。据此，公司将上半年业绩从预盈6500万元至8500万元，修正为预盈1.85亿元至2.15亿元，同比增长355.71%至429.61%。\n受益于公司碳纤维生产线产品交付进程的提速，精功科技亦将上半年净利润从预盈3500万元至5000万元，修正为预盈6500万元至7500万元，同比增长774.82%至909.41%。\n此外，江苏索普、南钢股份均曾在披露一季报时预计，上半年净利润将同比增长50%以上。而得益于公司主要产品醋酸及衍生品价格持续上涨，江苏索普业绩大幅上升，上半年预计实现净利润14.8亿元至15.3亿元，同比大增173倍至179倍；受益于今年以来钢材市场产销两旺，盈利明显好转，南钢股份上半年预计实现净利润约22.61亿元，同比增长约102.67%。\n投资“超预期”\n柘中股份、明牌珠宝等收获丰\n与前述企业不同，柘中股份、明牌珠宝上半年业绩预期上调得益于公司股权投资有所斩获。\n柘中股份通过私募股权基金参与的方式，对科技、医疗、半导体、消费、新能源、新材料、节能环保、高端装备、新能源汽车、TMT等领域多家高科技企业进行了股权投资。\n\n图片来源：公司公告\n上半年，柘中股份参与投资设立的苏民投君信（上海）产业升级与科技创新股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）所投资的皓元医药、力芯微于6月在科创板上市。按照上述公司6月30日收盘市值测算，预计对公司本报告期损益影响金额较前期业绩预告出现大幅度增加。\n据此，柘中股份将上半年业绩从预盈6000万元至8000万元，修正为预盈2亿元至2.3亿元，同比增长82倍至94倍。其中，非经常性损益预计1.4亿元至1.8亿元。\n同样因投资而“赚得盆满钵满”的还有明牌珠宝，一季报时公司曾预计上半年实现净利润3500万元至5000万元。7月1日，明牌珠宝上修上半年业绩至预盈3.5亿元至4亿元，同比增长23倍至27倍，主要由于非经常性损益项目。\n\n图片来源：公司公告\n公告显示，明牌珠宝对瑞丰银行投资按公允价值变动计入当期损益核算，影响金额约3.43亿元。据悉，明牌珠宝全资子公司明牌卡利罗，持有瑞丰银行约5863.84万股股份，瑞丰银行于今年6月25日上市。\n此外，焦点科技也将上半年业绩从预盈9000万元至1.25亿元，修正为预盈1.15亿元至1.35亿元，同比增长141.15%至183.09%。业绩增长原因方面，除营业总收入约7.1亿元，同比预增约31%外，焦点科技上半年通过集中竞价的方式累计出售润和软件452.4万股，扣税后为公司带来净利润约2251.70万元。\n藏格控股从预盈3亿元至3.8亿元，调整为预盈3.9亿元至4.3亿元，同比增长374.91% 至403.11%。业绩增长原因方面，除公司产品碳酸锂量价齐升及氯化钾售价提升，增厚营收净利外，公司长期股权投资确认投资收益2.1亿元（包含西藏巨龙铜业计提担保预期信用损失转回）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979257,"gmtCreate":1626608906779,"gmtModify":1703762287535,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979257","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether US stocks can continue their upward trend despite high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule. However, setting aside some short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth accelerated further in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods saw the highest growth rates.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors saw leading profit growth.</b>It is expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. Looking at different industries, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the capacity utilization rates of sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are currently significantly lower. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Overall, the market's consensus earnings expectations for US stocks have been rapidly revised upwards since the second quarter. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward revision by analysts) began to be rapidly revised upwards in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed and the momentum of upward revisions has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What will the upcoming second-quarter earnings season for US stocks look like?</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether the US stock market, despite high inflation and high valuations, can continue its upward trend, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule.</p><p>In our recent commentary, \"Significantly Exceeding Expectations Inflation vs. a Relatively Calm Market,\" we mentioned that the market's relative calm performance was mainly due to the fact that such high prices (e.g., used car prices surged by 45% year-on-year; if used cars are excluded, the June CPI would be basically flat year-on-year) made the market believe it was unsustainable. However, more importantly, Powell maintained his judgment at the hearing that inflation was temporary and that there was no rush to exit policy (\"The Fed Remains in No Rush to Exit\"), which prevented the market from falling into sharp fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>Excluding used car prices, inflation in June was only roughly flat compared to May.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, setting aside short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term market trend.<b>Moreover, since US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, US stock valuations have remained basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance.</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results significantly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. 21% expected and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), prompting a continued upward revision of earnings (\"Eight Characteristics of Current US Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus is that earnings growth is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>Given such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if we switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not so expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US stock market has remained largely flat since the third quarter of last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If the company switches to profitability in 2022 in the second half of the year (light blue), its valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's consensus forecast for 2021 EPS growth is 38.4% year-over-year, while the market consensus forecast for 2022 is 10.9% year-over-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall Situation: Further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth.</b></p><p>Starting in mid-July, the US stock market will gradually enter a month-long 2Q21 earnings period. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash,\" we expect to benefit from last year's low base and the continued recovery of service consumption under the pandemic since the second quarter.<b>US stocks' second-quarter earnings growth is expected to reach its highest point this year.</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus is that the S&P 500's EPS for the second quarter is expected to be 65.5% year-on-year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index's EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared to the first quarter, while the Nasdaq is expected to decline slightly but remain at a high level.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors are leading in profit growth and are expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%.</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.<b>In terms of the magnitude of improvement, compared to the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials may see significant improvement.</b>Meanwhile, profit growth in growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media and entertainment may slow down.</p><p><i>Durable consumer goods and banks saw significant improvement in year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods and healthcare equipment are expected to lag behind.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This balance of power is largely consistent with the situation in the first quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared to the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials saw the largest improvements, while retail, diversified finance, and healthcare equipment experienced declines.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector has seen the largest adjustment in its 2021e EPS forecast, while banking and raw materials sectors have also seen significant upward revisions.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply-demand bottlenecks.</b>。 Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. According to monthly high-frequency data ending in June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the level of 75.8% in January. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of durable consumer goods, which is greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, is currently only 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the pandemic.</p><p>By industry, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>Currently, capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped recovery situation. Industries with strong demand, full capacity and capability recovered faster in capital expenditure, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, and biopharmaceuticals. Conversely, other industries such as energy, transportation, and commercial services remain lagging behind.</p><p><i>The overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the 75.8% level in January.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are heavily affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially in automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thereby driving up inflation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, U.S. corporate capital expenditures also showed a very divergent K-shaped recovery pattern.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectations for US stock earnings have been rapidly revised upwards. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500's EPS to grow by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and by 10.9% year-on-year in 2022. Nasdaq's EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year in 2021 and by 19.0% year-on-year in 2022. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst numbers)<b>The upward revision began rapidly in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of upward profit revision may have passed and the momentum of upward revision has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b>。 The market currently expects earnings growth of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about US growth and the market in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, earnings sentiment has been rapidly revised upwards, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect continued momentum in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales indicates that demand remains strong; US Treasury yields hits new low, bulls increase, dollar shorts plummet</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Bonds > Stocks > Commodities; Interest rates hit new lows, cyclical outperformance</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing better-than-expected inflation in June</b>(\"Far-than-expected inflation vs. a relatively calm market\")<b>Powell's testimony remains dovish.</b>(The Federal Reserve is still in no hurry to exit)<b>Following better-than-expected retail sales but a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index, the US stock market closed slightly lower, indicating a financial cycle underperformance.</b>Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low of 1.29%, with real interest rates declining but inflation expectations rising. Looking at major global assets, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>Over the past week, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, utilities and household goods led the gains; Energy, semiconductors, and consumer services led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell by about 7 basis points compared to the previous week, with real interest rates falling by 11 basis points and inflation expectations rising by 4 basis points.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, sectors mostly affected by the pandemic and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while sectors less affected by the pandemic relatively outperformed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Put/call ratio increases, dollar short positions decrease significantly.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to the previous week and is currently higher than the historical average by -1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, a significant reduction in long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a substantial increase in net long positions; As US Treasury yields further declined, long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds increased significantly, while short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock market short/long option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to last week and is currently above the historical average by -1 standard deviation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the RSI levels in both European and American stock markets have fallen, while those in Japan and emerging markets have risen. Cloth oil falls</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase, short positions decreased significantly, and net long positions rose sharply.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Fund flows: Money market funds are shifting to outflows, while stock market inflows are accelerating.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have experienced significant outflows. By market, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned into significant outflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, with used cars and travel-related activities remaining the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, used car prices jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third to the month-on-month CPI growth rate in June. Supply constraints caused by factors such as a lack of chips remain the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel needs after the pandemic recovery and reopening, such as airfares and hotels, also saw significant increases. For example, ticket prices in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month-on-month in June.</b>, higher than the expected -0.3% and the previous value (-1.7%). Looking at each item,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly due to recent supply shortages and soaring prices.</b>However, prices for department stores, groceries, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month. However, the significantly better-than-expected retail spending was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan consumer confidence index (80.8 in July, down from the previous reading of 85.5 and below expectations (86.5). Meanwhile, the number of first-time applicants last week was 360,000, down from the previous reading (386,000) but below the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data from the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US June CPI exceeded expectations again, rising 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services remaining the main contributors.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in June, higher than the expected -0.3%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>By category, retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, but sales in department stores, grocery stores, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is currently approximately $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market valuation: Valuations have declined slightly.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields continuing to decline last week, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (June ISM Manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.36%). Valuation levels in major global markets, including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, have declined, but remain at relatively high historical levels.</p><p><i>The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic P/E ratio has slightly decreased to 21.3, more than one standard deviation above the mean since 1990.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~27.9 times).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether US stocks can continue their upward trend despite high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule. However, setting aside some short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth accelerated further in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods saw the highest growth rates.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors saw leading profit growth.</b>It is expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. Looking at different industries, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the capacity utilization rates of sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are currently significantly lower. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Overall, the market's consensus earnings expectations for US stocks have been rapidly revised upwards since the second quarter. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward revision by analysts) began to be rapidly revised upwards in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed and the momentum of upward revisions has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What will the upcoming second-quarter earnings season for US stocks look like?</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether the US stock market, despite high inflation and high valuations, can continue its upward trend, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule.</p><p>In our recent commentary, \"Significantly Exceeding Expectations Inflation vs. a Relatively Calm Market,\" we mentioned that the market's relative calm performance was mainly due to the fact that such high prices (e.g., used car prices surged by 45% year-on-year; if used cars are excluded, the June CPI would be basically flat year-on-year) made the market believe it was unsustainable. However, more importantly, Powell maintained his judgment at the hearing that inflation was temporary and that there was no rush to exit policy (\"The Fed Remains in No Rush to Exit\"), which prevented the market from falling into sharp fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>Excluding used car prices, inflation in June was only roughly flat compared to May.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, setting aside short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term market trend.<b>Moreover, since US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, US stock valuations have remained basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance.</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results significantly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. 21% expected and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), prompting a continued upward revision of earnings (\"Eight Characteristics of Current US Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus is that earnings growth is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>Given such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if we switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not so expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US stock market has remained largely flat since the third quarter of last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If the company switches to profitability in 2022 in the second half of the year (light blue), its valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's consensus forecast for 2021 EPS growth is 38.4% year-over-year, while the market consensus forecast for 2022 is 10.9% year-over-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall Situation: Further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth.</b></p><p>Starting in mid-July, the US stock market will gradually enter a month-long 2Q21 earnings period. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash,\" we expect to benefit from last year's low base and the continued recovery of service consumption under the pandemic since the second quarter.<b>US stocks' second-quarter earnings growth is expected to reach its highest point this year.</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus is that the S&P 500's EPS for the second quarter is expected to be 65.5% year-on-year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index's EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared to the first quarter, while the Nasdaq is expected to decline slightly but remain at a high level.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors are leading in profit growth and are expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%.</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.<b>In terms of the magnitude of improvement, compared to the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials may see significant improvement.</b>Meanwhile, profit growth in growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media and entertainment may slow down.</p><p><i>Durable consumer goods and banks saw significant improvement in year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods and healthcare equipment are expected to lag behind.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This balance of power is largely consistent with the situation in the first quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared to the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials saw the largest improvements, while retail, diversified finance, and healthcare equipment experienced declines.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector has seen the largest adjustment in its 2021e EPS forecast, while banking and raw materials sectors have also seen significant upward revisions.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply-demand bottlenecks.</b>。 Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. According to monthly high-frequency data ending in June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the level of 75.8% in January. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of durable consumer goods, which is greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, is currently only 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the pandemic.</p><p>By industry, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>Currently, capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped recovery situation. Industries with strong demand, full capacity and capability recovered faster in capital expenditure, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, and biopharmaceuticals. Conversely, other industries such as energy, transportation, and commercial services remain lagging behind.</p><p><i>The overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the 75.8% level in January.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are heavily affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially in automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thereby driving up inflation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, U.S. corporate capital expenditures also showed a very divergent K-shaped recovery pattern.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectations for US stock earnings have been rapidly revised upwards. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500's EPS to grow by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and by 10.9% year-on-year in 2022. Nasdaq's EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year in 2021 and by 19.0% year-on-year in 2022. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst numbers)<b>The upward revision began rapidly in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of upward profit revision may have passed and the momentum of upward revision has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b>。 The market currently expects earnings growth of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about US growth and the market in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, earnings sentiment has been rapidly revised upwards, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect continued momentum in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales indicates that demand remains strong; US Treasury yields hits new low, bulls increase, dollar shorts plummet</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Bonds > Stocks > Commodities; Interest rates hit new lows, cyclical outperformance</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing better-than-expected inflation in June</b>(\"Far-than-expected inflation vs. a relatively calm market\")<b>Powell's testimony remains dovish.</b>(The Federal Reserve is still in no hurry to exit)<b>Following better-than-expected retail sales but a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index, the US stock market closed slightly lower, indicating a financial cycle underperformance.</b>Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low of 1.29%, with real interest rates declining but inflation expectations rising. Looking at major global assets, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>Over the past week, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, utilities and household goods led the gains; Energy, semiconductors, and consumer services led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell by about 7 basis points compared to the previous week, with real interest rates falling by 11 basis points and inflation expectations rising by 4 basis points.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, sectors mostly affected by the pandemic and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while sectors less affected by the pandemic relatively outperformed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Put/call ratio increases, dollar short positions decrease significantly.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to the previous week and is currently higher than the historical average by -1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, a significant reduction in long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a substantial increase in net long positions; As US Treasury yields further declined, long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds increased significantly, while short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock market short/long option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to last week and is currently above the historical average by -1 standard deviation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the RSI levels in both European and American stock markets have fallen, while those in Japan and emerging markets have risen. Cloth oil falls</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase, short positions decreased significantly, and net long positions rose sharply.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Fund flows: Money market funds are shifting to outflows, while stock market inflows are accelerating.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have experienced significant outflows. By market, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned into significant outflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, with used cars and travel-related activities remaining the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, used car prices jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third to the month-on-month CPI growth rate in June. Supply constraints caused by factors such as a lack of chips remain the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel needs after the pandemic recovery and reopening, such as airfares and hotels, also saw significant increases. For example, ticket prices in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month-on-month in June.</b>, higher than the expected -0.3% and the previous value (-1.7%). Looking at each item,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly due to recent supply shortages and soaring prices.</b>However, prices for department stores, groceries, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month. However, the significantly better-than-expected retail spending was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan consumer confidence index (80.8 in July, down from the previous reading of 85.5 and below expectations (86.5). Meanwhile, the number of first-time applicants last week was 360,000, down from the previous reading (386,000) but below the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data from the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US June CPI exceeded expectations again, rising 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services remaining the main contributors.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in June, higher than the expected -0.3%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>By category, retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, but sales in department stores, grocery stores, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is currently approximately $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market valuation: Valuations have declined slightly.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields continuing to decline last week, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (June ISM Manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.36%). Valuation levels in major global markets, including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, have declined, but remain at relatively high historical levels.</p><p><i>The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic P/E ratio has slightly decreased to 21.3, more than one standard deviation above the mean since 1990.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~27.9 times).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979895,"gmtCreate":1626608863817,"gmtModify":1703762287213,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979895","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979123,"gmtCreate":1626608790262,"gmtModify":1703762286891,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979123","repostId":"1160796593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160796593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626606185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160796593?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 19:03","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that had hindered an agreement. Representatives at the meeting stated that the organization will increase production by up to 400,000 barrels per day per month until all idle capacity is restored. Under the agreement, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will receive higher production quotas starting in May 2022. The agreement will ease looming supply shortages and reduce the risk of rising oil prices. This also brought an end to a deadlock that had unsettled traders.</p><p>OPEC+ has agreed to a new baseline for crude oil production cuts in the UAE of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>Besides the UAE, other OPEC+ members are also expected to receive new production cut benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait each raising their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day.</p><p>OPEC+ agreed to adjust benchmark oil production for Saudi Arabia and Russia from 11 million barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day, starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ also agreed to further ease production cuts starting in August, with the new crude oil production cut benchmark set to take effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC+ meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production cut agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement indicates that OPEC+ plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrel/day production cut by September 2022, market conditions permitting.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+ agrees to increase oil production, ending the current stalemate.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 18, OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually increase oil supplies to the market after Saudi Arabia and the UAE resolved a dispute that had hindered an agreement. Representatives at the meeting stated that the organization will increase production by up to 400,000 barrels per day per month until all idle capacity is restored. Under the agreement, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will receive higher production quotas starting in May 2022. The agreement will ease looming supply shortages and reduce the risk of rising oil prices. This also brought an end to a deadlock that had unsettled traders.</p><p>OPEC+ has agreed to a new baseline for crude oil production cuts in the UAE of 3.5 million barrels per day, which will take effect in May 2022.</p><p>Besides the UAE, other OPEC+ members are also expected to receive new production cut benchmarks, with Iraq and Kuwait each raising their production baselines by 150,000 barrels per day.</p><p>OPEC+ agreed to adjust benchmark oil production for Saudi Arabia and Russia from 11 million barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day, starting in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ also agreed to further ease production cuts starting in August, with the new crude oil production cut benchmark set to take effect in May 2022.</p><p>OPEC+ has reached an agreement on crude oil production, and the next OPEC+ meeting will be held on September 21, agreeing to extend the production cut agreement until the end of 2022.</p><p>The OPEC draft statement indicates that OPEC+ plans to completely cancel the 5.8 million barrel/day production cut by September 2022, market conditions permitting.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日，在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后，欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示，该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日，直到所有闲置的产能都恢复，根据协议，阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张，并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日，将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋，其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准，伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始，将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产，新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议，下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行，同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示，欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前，在市场条件允许的情况下，全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800811255,"gmtCreate":1627290274977,"gmtModify":1703486870991,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800811255","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979257,"gmtCreate":1626608906779,"gmtModify":1703762287535,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979257","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点：美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151231853?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether US stocks can continue their upward trend despite high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule. However, setting aside some short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth accelerated further in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods saw the highest growth rates.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors saw leading profit growth.</b>It is expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. Looking at different industries, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the capacity utilization rates of sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are currently significantly lower. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Overall, the market's consensus earnings expectations for US stocks have been rapidly revised upwards since the second quarter. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward revision by analysts) began to be rapidly revised upwards in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed and the momentum of upward revisions has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What will the upcoming second-quarter earnings season for US stocks look like?</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether the US stock market, despite high inflation and high valuations, can continue its upward trend, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule.</p><p>In our recent commentary, \"Significantly Exceeding Expectations Inflation vs. a Relatively Calm Market,\" we mentioned that the market's relative calm performance was mainly due to the fact that such high prices (e.g., used car prices surged by 45% year-on-year; if used cars are excluded, the June CPI would be basically flat year-on-year) made the market believe it was unsustainable. However, more importantly, Powell maintained his judgment at the hearing that inflation was temporary and that there was no rush to exit policy (\"The Fed Remains in No Rush to Exit\"), which prevented the market from falling into sharp fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>Excluding used car prices, inflation in June was only roughly flat compared to May.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, setting aside short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term market trend.<b>Moreover, since US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, US stock valuations have remained basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance.</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results significantly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. 21% expected and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), prompting a continued upward revision of earnings (\"Eight Characteristics of Current US Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus is that earnings growth is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>Given such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if we switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not so expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US stock market has remained largely flat since the third quarter of last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If the company switches to profitability in 2022 in the second half of the year (light blue), its valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's consensus forecast for 2021 EPS growth is 38.4% year-over-year, while the market consensus forecast for 2022 is 10.9% year-over-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall Situation: Further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth.</b></p><p>Starting in mid-July, the US stock market will gradually enter a month-long 2Q21 earnings period. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash,\" we expect to benefit from last year's low base and the continued recovery of service consumption under the pandemic since the second quarter.<b>US stocks' second-quarter earnings growth is expected to reach its highest point this year.</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus is that the S&P 500's EPS for the second quarter is expected to be 65.5% year-on-year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index's EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared to the first quarter, while the Nasdaq is expected to decline slightly but remain at a high level.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors are leading in profit growth and are expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%.</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.<b>In terms of the magnitude of improvement, compared to the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials may see significant improvement.</b>Meanwhile, profit growth in growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media and entertainment may slow down.</p><p><i>Durable consumer goods and banks saw significant improvement in year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods and healthcare equipment are expected to lag behind.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This balance of power is largely consistent with the situation in the first quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared to the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials saw the largest improvements, while retail, diversified finance, and healthcare equipment experienced declines.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector has seen the largest adjustment in its 2021e EPS forecast, while banking and raw materials sectors have also seen significant upward revisions.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply-demand bottlenecks.</b>。 Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. According to monthly high-frequency data ending in June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the level of 75.8% in January. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of durable consumer goods, which is greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, is currently only 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the pandemic.</p><p>By industry, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>Currently, capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped recovery situation. Industries with strong demand, full capacity and capability recovered faster in capital expenditure, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, and biopharmaceuticals. Conversely, other industries such as energy, transportation, and commercial services remain lagging behind.</p><p><i>The overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the 75.8% level in January.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are heavily affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially in automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thereby driving up inflation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, U.S. corporate capital expenditures also showed a very divergent K-shaped recovery pattern.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectations for US stock earnings have been rapidly revised upwards. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500's EPS to grow by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and by 10.9% year-on-year in 2022. Nasdaq's EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year in 2021 and by 19.0% year-on-year in 2022. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst numbers)<b>The upward revision began rapidly in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of upward profit revision may have passed and the momentum of upward revision has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b>。 The market currently expects earnings growth of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about US growth and the market in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, earnings sentiment has been rapidly revised upwards, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect continued momentum in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales indicates that demand remains strong; US Treasury yields hits new low, bulls increase, dollar shorts plummet</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Bonds > Stocks > Commodities; Interest rates hit new lows, cyclical outperformance</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing better-than-expected inflation in June</b>(\"Far-than-expected inflation vs. a relatively calm market\")<b>Powell's testimony remains dovish.</b>(The Federal Reserve is still in no hurry to exit)<b>Following better-than-expected retail sales but a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index, the US stock market closed slightly lower, indicating a financial cycle underperformance.</b>Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low of 1.29%, with real interest rates declining but inflation expectations rising. Looking at major global assets, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>Over the past week, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, utilities and household goods led the gains; Energy, semiconductors, and consumer services led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell by about 7 basis points compared to the previous week, with real interest rates falling by 11 basis points and inflation expectations rising by 4 basis points.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, sectors mostly affected by the pandemic and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while sectors less affected by the pandemic relatively outperformed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Put/call ratio increases, dollar short positions decrease significantly.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to the previous week and is currently higher than the historical average by -1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, a significant reduction in long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a substantial increase in net long positions; As US Treasury yields further declined, long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds increased significantly, while short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock market short/long option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to last week and is currently above the historical average by -1 standard deviation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the RSI levels in both European and American stock markets have fallen, while those in Japan and emerging markets have risen. Cloth oil falls</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase, short positions decreased significantly, and net long positions rose sharply.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Fund flows: Money market funds are shifting to outflows, while stock market inflows are accelerating.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have experienced significant outflows. By market, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned into significant outflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, with used cars and travel-related activities remaining the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, used car prices jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third to the month-on-month CPI growth rate in June. Supply constraints caused by factors such as a lack of chips remain the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel needs after the pandemic recovery and reopening, such as airfares and hotels, also saw significant increases. For example, ticket prices in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month-on-month in June.</b>, higher than the expected -0.3% and the previous value (-1.7%). Looking at each item,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly due to recent supply shortages and soaring prices.</b>However, prices for department stores, groceries, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month. However, the significantly better-than-expected retail spending was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan consumer confidence index (80.8 in July, down from the previous reading of 85.5 and below expectations (86.5). Meanwhile, the number of first-time applicants last week was 360,000, down from the previous reading (386,000) but below the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data from the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US June CPI exceeded expectations again, rising 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services remaining the main contributors.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in June, higher than the expected -0.3%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>By category, retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, but sales in department stores, grocery stores, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is currently approximately $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market valuation: Valuations have declined slightly.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields continuing to decline last week, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (June ISM Manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.36%). Valuation levels in major global markets, including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, have declined, but remain at relatively high historical levels.</p><p><i>The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic P/E ratio has slightly decreased to 21.3, more than one standard deviation above the mean since 1990.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~27.9 times).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC Overseas: US stocks are expected to further accelerate second-quarter earnings growth.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether US stocks can continue their upward trend despite high inflation and high valuations, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule. However, setting aside some short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term trend of the market.<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b></p><p>Overall situation: Growth accelerated further in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods saw the highest growth rates.</p><p>Referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors saw leading profit growth.</b>It is expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%; Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.</p><p>Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply and demand bottlenecks.</b>Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. Looking at different industries, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018), the capacity utilization rates of sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are currently significantly lower. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of automobiles is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</p><p>Overall, the market's consensus earnings expectations for US stocks have been rapidly revised upwards since the second quarter. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward revision by analysts) began to be rapidly revised upwards in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed and the momentum of upward revisions has slowed down.<b>Looking ahead, although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: What will the upcoming second-quarter earnings season for US stocks look like?</b></p><p>Recently, with US inflation rising again more than expected, market concerns have risen again about whether the US stock market, despite high inflation and high valuations, can continue its upward trend, and whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy ahead of schedule.</p><p>In our recent commentary, \"Significantly Exceeding Expectations Inflation vs. a Relatively Calm Market,\" we mentioned that the market's relative calm performance was mainly due to the fact that such high prices (e.g., used car prices surged by 45% year-on-year; if used cars are excluded, the June CPI would be basically flat year-on-year) made the market believe it was unsustainable. However, more importantly, Powell maintained his judgment at the hearing that inflation was temporary and that there was no rush to exit policy (\"The Fed Remains in No Rush to Exit\"), which prevented the market from falling into sharp fluctuations in the face of unexpected inflation risks.</p><p><i>Excluding used car prices, inflation in June was only roughly flat compared to May.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, setting aside short-term changes in sentiment, the fundamentals are the core factor in judging the medium-term market trend.<b>Moreover, since US Treasury yields began to gradually rise in the third quarter of last year, US stock valuations have remained basically flat, and profitability is the core variable driving market performance.</b>。 Therefore,<b>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</b>。</p><p>In fact, the first-quarter results significantly exceeded expectations (52% year-on-year vs. 21% expected and 4% in the fourth quarter of 2020), prompting a continued upward revision of earnings (\"Eight Characteristics of Current US Stock Earnings\"). The current market consensus is that earnings growth is expected to reach 38% in 2021 and 11% in 2021.<b>Given such strong growth, assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if we switch to profitability in 2022, the valuation will return to pre-pandemic levels, making the seemingly high valuation not so expensive.</b></p><p><i>From a market perspective, even with the potential fluctuations caused by numerous uncertainties, we will not become pessimistic about the market as long as the profit trend is not completely reversed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US stock market has remained largely flat since the third quarter of last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>If the company switches to profitability in 2022 in the second half of the year (light blue), its valuation will fall back to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (dark blue).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The S&P 500's consensus forecast for 2021 EPS growth is 38.4% year-over-year, while the market consensus forecast for 2022 is 10.9% year-over-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>I. Overall Situation: Further acceleration in the second quarter; Durable goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods led the growth.</b></p><p>Starting in mid-July, the US stock market will gradually enter a month-long 2Q21 earnings period. As we analyzed in \"2H21 Overseas Market Outlook: From Growth Spillover to Liquidity Backlash,\" we expect to benefit from last year's low base and the continued recovery of service consumption under the pandemic since the second quarter.<b>US stocks' second-quarter earnings growth is expected to reach its highest point this year.</b>。 Specifically, referring to Factset consensus expectations,<b>The S&P 500's earnings (on a comparable basis) are expected to increase by 66% year-over-year (vs. 52% in the first quarter), while the Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to increase by 89% year-over-year (vs. 94% in the first quarter).</b></p><p><i>The current market consensus is that the S&P 500's EPS for the second quarter is expected to be 65.5% year-on-year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index's EPS is expected to be 88.9% year-on-year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In addition to net profit, the S&P 500's second-quarter EBIT is expected to continue to rise compared to the first quarter, while the Nasdaq is expected to decline slightly but remain at a high level.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the sector level, considering the base from the second quarter of last year and the recovery in the second quarter of this year, the current expectations compiled by Factset show that...<b>Durable consumer goods, banking, raw materials, and capital goods sectors are leading in profit growth and are expected to achieve profit growth of over 100%.</b>； Conversely, household goods, healthcare equipment, and utilities are expected to see negative profit growth in the second quarter.<b>In terms of the magnitude of improvement, compared to the first quarter, value sectors such as durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials may see significant improvement.</b>Meanwhile, profit growth in growth sectors such as retail, healthcare equipment, technology hardware, and media and entertainment may slow down.</p><p><i>Durable consumer goods and banks saw significant improvement in year-on-year EPS growth in the second quarter, but household goods and healthcare equipment are expected to lag behind.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>This balance of power is largely consistent with the situation in the first quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Compared to the first quarter, durable consumer goods, capital goods, banking, and raw materials saw the largest improvements, while retail, diversified finance, and healthcare equipment experienced declines.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Since the second quarter, the energy sector has seen the largest adjustment in its 2021e EPS forecast, while banking and raw materials sectors have also seen significant upward revisions.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Focus: Supply bottlenecks and capacity utilization, capital expenditure</b></p><p><b>The current problems facing US-listed companies are no longer about profitability and demand recovery, but more about releasing supply and alleviating supply-demand bottlenecks.</b>。 Therefore, during the second-quarter earnings season, we need to focus on the company's production capacity, supply chain repair, and inventory situation, especially the management's discussions on related issues. According to monthly high-frequency data ending in June, the overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the level of 75.8% in January. In particular, the capacity utilization rate of durable consumer goods, which is greatly affected by supply bottlenecks, is currently only 74%, which is still far from the 75% at the beginning of the year and before the pandemic.</p><p>By industry, compared to the peak of the previous investment cycle (July 2018),<b>Currently, capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</b>Especially for automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This also explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, which in turn drove up inflation.</p><p>This can also be reflected in the capital expenditure of enterprises. As of the first quarter, the capital expenditure of American enterprises also showed a very differentiated K-shaped recovery situation. Industries with strong demand, full capacity and capability recovered faster in capital expenditure, such as e-commerce, semiconductor equipment, and biopharmaceuticals. Conversely, other industries such as energy, transportation, and commercial services remain lagging behind.</p><p><i>The overall capacity utilization rate in the United States is currently 75.5%, which has not yet fully recovered to the 75.8% level in January.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>In particular, durable consumer goods, which are heavily affected by supply bottlenecks, currently have a capacity utilization rate of only 74%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Capacity utilization rates in sectors such as automobiles and auto parts, air transportation, paper products, petroleum and coal, plastics and rubber, and metal processing are significantly low.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Especially in automobiles, the current capacity utilization rate is only 64%, and it even fell further in June. This explains why used car prices continued to rise sharply in June, thereby driving up inflation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>As of the first quarter, U.S. corporate capital expenditures also showed a very divergent K-shaped recovery pattern.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>III. Outlook: Expectations continue to be revised upwards, but adjustment sentiment has declined marginally; There is still momentum in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p>Overall, since the second quarter, the market's consensus expectations for US stock earnings have been rapidly revised upwards. Currently, the market expects the S&P 500's EPS to grow by 38.4% year-on-year in 2021 and by 10.9% year-on-year in 2022. Nasdaq's EPS increased by 49.2% year-on-year in 2021 and by 19.0% year-on-year in 2022. However, the more sensitive earnings adjustment sentiment (upward vs. downward analyst numbers)<b>The upward revision began rapidly in the second quarter, but gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of upward profit revision may have passed and the momentum of upward revision has slowed down.</b></p><p>Looking forward,<b>Although the second quarter will be a year-on-year high due to the low base, we expect the third quarter to still have momentum, mainly due to the further acceleration of service consumption in the third quarter.</b>。 The market currently expects earnings growth of 24% in the third quarter, which is one of the main reasons why we remain positive about US growth and the market in the third quarter.</p><p><i>Since the second quarter, earnings sentiment has been rapidly revised upwards, but it gradually stabilized at the end of May, indicating that the fastest phase of earnings revisions may have passed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>We expect continued momentum in the third quarter, mainly due to the further accelerated release of service consumption in the third quarter.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Dynamics: Inflation rose more than expected in June, and unexpected growth in retail sales indicates that demand remains strong; US Treasury yields hits new low, bulls increase, dollar shorts plummet</b></p><p><b>► Asset performance: Bonds > Stocks > Commodities; Interest rates hit new lows, cyclical outperformance</b></p><p>The past week has undoubtedly been a week of blockbuster data and events in the United States.<b>After experiencing better-than-expected inflation in June</b>(\"Far-than-expected inflation vs. a relatively calm market\")<b>Powell's testimony remains dovish.</b>(The Federal Reserve is still in no hurry to exit)<b>Following better-than-expected retail sales but a lower-than-expected consumer confidence index, the US stock market closed slightly lower, indicating a financial cycle underperformance.</b>Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a recent low of 1.29%, with real interest rates declining but inflation expectations rising. Looking at major global assets, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</p><p><i>Over the past week, in US dollar terms, bonds > stocks > commodities, with VIX, soybeans, Brazilian stocks, and Hong Kong stocks leading the gains; Bitcoin, crude oil, UK stocks, and Nasdaq led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, utilities and household goods led the gains; Energy, semiconductors, and consumer services led the decline.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the 10-year US Treasury yields fell by about 7 basis points compared to the previous week, with real interest rates falling by 11 basis points and inflation expectations rising by 4 basis points.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, sectors mostly affected by the pandemic and cyclical sectors relatively underperformed, while sectors less affected by the pandemic relatively outperformed.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Sentiment positions: Put/call ratio increases, dollar short positions decrease significantly.</b></p><p>Over the past week, the ratio of bearish/bullish options in US stocks (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to the previous week and is currently higher than the historical average by -1 standard deviation. In terms of positions, a significant reduction in long and short positions in the US Dollar Index led to a substantial increase in net long positions; As US Treasury yields further declined, long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds increased significantly, while short positions in 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased significantly.</p><p><i>The CBOE U.S. stock market short/long option ratio (10-day average) has increased significantly compared to last week and is currently above the historical average by -1 standard deviation.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, the RSI levels in both European and American stock markets have fallen, while those in Japan and emerging markets have risen. Cloth oil falls</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, long positions in the US Dollar Index continued to increase, short positions decreased significantly, and net long positions rose sharply.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>► Fund flows: Money market funds are shifting to outflows, while stock market inflows are accelerating.</b></p><p>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have experienced significant outflows. By market, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</p><p><i>Over the past week, bond market inflows have slowed, stock market inflows have accelerated, and money market funds have turned into significant outflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Over the past week, inflows accelerated in the US and Japanese stock markets, while inflows slowed in developed Europe, and emerging markets, represented by China, turned to inflows.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Fundamentals and Policies: Inflation exceeded expectations again in June, and retail sales grew strongly.</b></p><p><b>U.S. inflation rose more than expected in June, with used cars and travel-related activities remaining the main contributors.</b>The CPI in June was 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, both higher than the previous value and significantly exceeding market expectations. Among them, used car prices jumped 10.5% month-on-month, contributing one-third to the month-on-month CPI growth rate in June. Supply constraints caused by factors such as a lack of chips remain the main bottleneck. In addition, services related to travel needs after the pandemic recovery and reopening, such as airfares and hotels, also saw significant increases. For example, ticket prices in June reached 2.7% month-on-month.</p><p><b>Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.6% month-on-month in June.</b>, higher than the expected -0.3% and the previous value (-1.7%). Looking at each item,<b>Retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, possibly due to recent supply shortages and soaring prices.</b>However, prices for department stores, groceries, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month. However, the significantly better-than-expected retail spending was offset by a lower-than-expected University of Michigan consumer confidence index (80.8 in July, down from the previous reading of 85.5 and below expectations (86.5). Meanwhile, the number of first-time applicants last week was 360,000, down from the previous reading (386,000) but below the expected 350,000.</p><p><i>Summary of economic data from the past week</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The US June CPI exceeded expectations again, rising 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with used cars and travel-related services remaining the main contributors.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in June, higher than the expected -0.3%.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>By category, retail sales of automobiles and auto parts fell 2% month-on-month, but sales in department stores, grocery stores, electronics, and home appliances increased compared to the previous month.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's average daily reverse repurchase usage remained high over the past week, exceeding $800 billion.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is currently approximately $8.20 trillion, a significant increase from last week.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>► Market valuation: Valuations have declined slightly.</b></p><p>With the 10-year US Treasury yields continuing to decline last week, the current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level (~27.9 times) that can be supported by growth (June ISM Manufacturing PMI = 60.6) and liquidity (10-year US Treasury yields of 1.36%). Valuation levels in major global markets, including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets, have declined, but remain at relatively high historical levels.</p><p><i>The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic P/E ratio has slightly decreased to 21.3, more than one standard deviation above the mean since 1990.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The current S&P 500's static P/E ratio of 27.7 is basically at a reasonable level supported by growth and liquidity (~27.9 times).</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过，抛开短期一些情绪变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况：二季度增长进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看，二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修，不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点：即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何？\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行，市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到，市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格（例如二手车同比大涨45%，如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平）让市场认为是无法持续的，但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断（《美联储依然不急于退出》），这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后，6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过，抛开短期一些情绪上的变化，基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心，更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来，美股估值就基本持平，而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此，从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上，一季度业绩大超预期（同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%），推动业绩持续上修（《当前美股盈利的八个特征》），当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%，2021年为11%，在这样一个强劲增长下，假设其他条件不变，如果切换到2022年盈利，那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平，进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度，即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动，但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转，我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利（浅蓝色），那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平（深蓝色）\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%，市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况：二季度进一步加速；耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始，美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望：从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析，我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复，美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看，参考Factset一致预期，标普500盈利（可比口径）有望实现66%的同比增长（vs. 一季度52%），纳斯达克综指同比89%（vs. 一季度94%）。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%，纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外，标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升，纳斯达克略有下滑，但仍处高位\n\n板块层面，结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况，当前Factset汇总的预期显示，耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先，有望实现超过100%的盈利增长；相反，家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看，相比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显，而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显，但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度，耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大，零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来，能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大，银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点：供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复，更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此，二季度业绩期，我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况，特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看，美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平，尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%，距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看，相比上一轮投资周期的高点（2018年7月），当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低，特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现，从截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面，那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快，例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业；相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%，还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品，目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车，当前产能利用率仅为64%，6月份反而还进一步回落，这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看，美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望：预期继续上修，但调整情绪边际回落；三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看，二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修，目前，市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%，2022年EPS同比增长10.9%；纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%，2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过，更为敏感的盈利调整情绪（上调 vs.下调分析师数）二季度开始快速上修，但5月末开始逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去，上修动能减缓。\n往前看，虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点，但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%，这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来，盈利调整情绪快速上修，但5月末逐步企稳，预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲，主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态：6月通胀超预期上行，零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲；美债利率再创新低多头增加，美元空头大降\n►资产表现：债>股>大宗；利率再创新低，周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀（《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》）、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词（《美联储依然不急于退出》）、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后，美股市场整体小幅收跌，金融周期跑输，同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%，实际利率回落，但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周，美元计价下，债>股>大宗，VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨；比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周，公用事业、家庭用品领涨；能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周，10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps，其中实际利率回落11bps，通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周，疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输，疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位：Put/call比例抬升，美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面，美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升；伴随美债利率的进一步回落，10年美债多头仓位大幅增加，2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例（10天平均）较上周大幅抬升，目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周，欧美股市RSI点位均回落，日本及新兴抬升；布油回落\n\n过去一周，美元指数多头仓位继续增加，空头仓位大幅减少，净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向：货基转为流出，股市加速流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币基金大幅流出；分市场看，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周，债市流入放缓，股市加速流入，货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周，美国及日本股市加速流入，发达欧洲流入放缓，以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策：6月通胀再超预期，零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行，二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%，均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中，二手车价格环比跳升10.5%，贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一，缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外，机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显，例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%和前值（-1.7%）。分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累，但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消（7月80.8，低于前值85.5并不及预期（86.5）。与此同时，上周首申人数36.0万人，低于前值（38.6万人）但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期，同比5.4%环比0.9%，二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%，高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看，汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%，但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周，美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位，超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元，较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值：估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落，当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长（6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6）和流动性（10年美债利率1.36%）能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落，但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍，超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平（~27.9倍）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831860233,"gmtCreate":1629300692222,"gmtModify":1676529997711,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831860233","repostId":"1178125004","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833807914,"gmtCreate":1629213502038,"gmtModify":1676529969550,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Song song to jurong","listText":"Song song to jurong","text":"Song song to jurong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833807914","repostId":"1123143185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123143185","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629197708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123143185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 18:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Asset Management Association of China: Fund managers are prohibited from transferring profits between different asset portfolios.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>On August 17, the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the \"Guidelines for Professional Conduct and Ethics for Fund Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds,\" which will take effect on the date of its release. It proposes that fund managers should establish and improve various systems such as related-party transactions and fair trading, formulate and improve standards and procedures for matters such as related-party identification and related-party transaction price determination, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. Fund managers should treat different asset portfolios fairly and ensure that different asset portfolios have equal investment and trading opportunities through systems such as centralized trading and fair trading.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Asset Management Association of China: Fund managers are prohibited from transferring profits between different asset portfolios.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAsset Management Association of China: Fund managers are prohibited from transferring profits between different asset portfolios.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 18:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On August 17, the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the \"Guidelines for Professional Conduct and Ethics for Fund Managers and Practitioners of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds,\" which will take effect on the date of its release. It proposes that fund managers should establish and improve various systems such as related-party transactions and fair trading, formulate and improve standards and procedures for matters such as related-party identification and related-party transaction price determination, and shall not transfer benefits to third parties or between different asset portfolios. Fund managers should treat different asset portfolios fairly and ensure that different asset portfolios have equal investment and trading opportunities through systems such as centralized trading and fair trading.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯，中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》，自发布之日起实施。其中提出，基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度，制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程，不得向第三方输送利益，不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合，通过集中交易、公平交易等制度，确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979895,"gmtCreate":1626608863817,"gmtModify":1703762287213,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979895","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$amc$&nbsp;","listText":"$amc$&nbsp;","text":"$amc$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804922385","repostId":"1133915369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133915369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627914060,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133915369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Xinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133915369","media":"新华社","summary":"如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间考验。","content":"<p><div>BEIJING, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- Summer vacation is here, and milk tea, a popular choice among young people, is about to usher in its peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, Shanghai's market supervision authorities conducted surprise inspections of several brand milk tea shops, including 1 Point, Cha Bai Dao, 7 Fen Tian, coco, and Xiong Ji. They found that unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operating areas, and mixed items and food were common, which attracted public attention. What is the situation in Beijing? Recently, a reporter went undercover at the popular milk tea shop \"Nayuki's Tea\" through random job applications and discovered that several of its branches were infested with cockroaches...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"XHS1","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXinhua News Agency reporter goes undercover to investigate Nayuki: Cockroaches are ignored, labels are changed at will.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新华社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 22:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>BEIJING, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- Summer vacation is here, and milk tea, a popular choice among young people, is about to usher in its peak sales season. However, in the first half of this year, Shanghai's market supervision authorities conducted surprise inspections of several brand milk tea shops, including 1 Point, Cha Bai Dao, 7 Fen Tian, coco, and Xiong Ji. They found that unclear food labels, uncovered food in refrigerators, substandard hygiene in operating areas, and mixed items and food were common, which attracted public attention. What is the situation in Beijing? Recently, a reporter went undercover at the popular milk tea shop \"Nayuki's Tea\" through random job applications and discovered that several of its branches were infested with cockroaches...</p><p><a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm\">新华社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"http://m.xinhuanet.com/2021-08/02/c_1127723129.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133915369","content_text":"新华社北京8月2日电（记者冯松龄、赵鸿宇）暑期已至，作为深受年轻人追捧的奶茶，将迎来销售旺季。\n但上海市市场监管部门今年上半年对1点点、茶百道、7分甜、都可（coco）、熊姬等多个品牌奶茶店突击检查发现，食品标签不明确、冰箱内食物不加盖、操作区卫生不达标、物品与食品混放等现象普遍存在，引发社会关注。\n北京情况如何？近日，记者通过随机应聘，“卧底”网红奶茶店“奈雪的茶”，发现其多家分店也存在蟑螂乱爬、水果腐烂、抹布不洗、标签不实等问题。\n——蟑螂“不用管”，处理欠规范。\n前不久，记者应聘进入“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，成为一名实习茶饮师，负责面包区“上包”工作，即把后厨做好的面包从货架摆放到橱窗，并帮助顾客选购面包。\n上岗当天，记者看见一只指甲盖大小的蟑螂，从面包展柜底部爬向面包制作间。记者马上报告同组值班店员，但得到“没事，不用管它”的答复。\n“水吧和面包房有蟑螂”在许多店员看来十分“正常”。入职第二天，一些店员告诉记者，虽然店里要求很高，但“忙起来就顾不上那么多了”。\n——腐烂水果继续用，产品标签随意换。\n在“奈雪的茶”长安商场店，一些发黑的芒果摆放在后厨的桌子上，员工被提醒要去掉“黑色”部分继续使用，“不要浪费，稍处理一下即可”。\n记者看到，一些标签纸等杂物不小心掉进芒果泥里，杂物被挑拣出来后芒果泥继续使用。\n一款“软欧包魔法棒”系列产品，按要求应在4小时内售完。但一些员工会将未售完的产品及时更改时间标签再卖。\n奈雪饮品“霸气柠檬油柑”保质期只有一天。但在“奈雪的茶”北京西单大悦城店，生产标签为手工输入。因操作失误，出现过工作人员错将当天该品生产日期打成前一天的情况。直到晚上闭店时，店长才发现。工作人员在群中私下处理了此事，相关情况并未对消费者公示，也未采取任何补救措施。\n——手套不戴，抹布不洗。\n记者在工作中看到，员工用同一个手套，同时处理不同的食物，且几乎从不更换。遇到客流高峰期，店长等其他工作人员会直接到后厨上手操作，很多时候不戴手套直接处理食材。\n《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定：“餐具、饮具和盛放直接入口食品的容器，使用前应当洗净、消毒，炊具、用具用后应当洗净，保持清洁。”\n记者在被安排“擦盘子”期间，多次询问店员一块抹布擦几十个盘子是否需清洗抹布，得到“完全不用”的答复。\n奶茶店要求擦拭桌面的毛巾4小时必须更换，每次更换后要打上时间标签。但记者在面包展区仅2天，就遇到了2次没有及时更换的情况。\n——日常卫生很随意，检查一来就重视。\n暗访现场，记者看到，不少员工直接踩着清洗食材的桌面，从较高橱柜中取食材，且未做任何清洁处理。\n但每次上级来检查时，店员们就会临时整理地面卫生，对平日较为繁杂的后厨进行系统清理，紧急清洗各种机器。\n“奈茶的雪”并非个案。北京市市场监管局此前在突击检查中发现，部分茶饮店使用过期的、不新鲜或“三无”物料等问题，并责令其整改。\n今年6月，南京市玄武区市场监管局公布的专项抽检结果显示，喜茶在微生物、糖类方面存在风险。而在2018年、2019年喜茶也均出现喝出“异物”等问题。\n为严查严管各种网红奶茶店不合格现象，国家市场监管总局在2018年6月12日发布《关于加强现制现售奶茶果蔬汁监督管理的通知》，提出了对网红饮品的具体管理、监督要求。\n中国农业大学食品学院副教授朱毅认为，奶茶店遍地，同质化严重，竞争激烈加上原材料涨价，同时外卖形态占比增加，不少消费者并没机会看实体店面，这就造成了店家忙于挣钱，疏于管理，应付监管，卫生成了共性问题。\n“如果只顾追求新奇营销和利润获取，而不能保证食品质量安全，终将无法经受时间的考验。”中国消费者权益保护法学研究会副秘书长陈音江认为，奶茶经营者除了打造“IP”，应更多把精力和成本花在产品质量把关上，为消费者提供安全放心的产品，才能越走越远。（参与采写：孙雨晨、简子奇）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02150":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453050,"gmtCreate":1627529817770,"gmtModify":1703491783483,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Singapore airline","listText":"Singapore airline","text":"Singapore airline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453050","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195922259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627527847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195922259?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-29 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195922259","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人都投资失败的时候，机会就来了。","content":"<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>","source":"lsy1587985706210","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRogers' Crisis Response Manual: Don't do it if you're not familiar with it; these assets must be snapped up.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">巴伦周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 11:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Jim Rogers is an investor with a mix of expertise and street smarts, and no one can ignore his judgment of economic trends. Rogers recently warned that the world economy has received the worst-case scenario since the COVID-19 pandemic, and a crisis bigger than the \"Lehman Brothers moment\" is inevitable.</p><p>So, what should we do when the crisis really comes? Jim Rogers warned us not to trust common sense too much, because any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years. This article is excerpted from Chapter 3 of this book, \"What Should We Do When a Crisis Comes?\", which records Rogers' crisis response guide.</p><p><b>Any common sense undergoes a dramatic reversal every fifteen years.</b></p><p>When a crisis arrives, how should we respond?</p><p>First, completely change the way you perceive the crisis. Crises inevitably occur every now and then, with a certain frequency. Much of the common sense you believe in now may be completely wrong fifteen years from now.</p><p>Let's look back at history again. What did common sense, which everyone considered absolutely correct in 1930, become in 1945? Obviously, it couldn't be the same as it was in 1930, because World War II had changed everything.</p><p>It is clear that in our world, change is the norm, while stagnation is abnormal. The world is always changing and never stops.</p><p>That is why I have repeatedly advocated that everyone should learn from history and should respect it. There is an old Chinese saying, \"By using history as a mirror, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties,\" which means the same thing.</p><p>Of course, the reversal cycle of common sense does not necessarily have to be fifteen years. Sometimes it may be ten years, sometimes it may be twenty-five years. However, when we trace the massive amount of historical data, we will find that a huge change occurs roughly every ten to fifteen years. This is a highly probable event.</p><p>Here's an example. In 1991, the Soviet Union, a superpower that had once stood alongside the United States, collapsed. This would have been almost unimaginable ten years ago in 1981. Just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the so-called \"Red Empire\" of the Soviet Union completely disappeared. As a result, many people asserted that capitalist ideology had achieved a historic \"final victory\" and that the outcome was irreversible. The most representative example is the \"End of History Conclusion\" published by Japanese-American scholar Francis Fukuyama. However, just fifteen years later, capitalism itself experienced a serious crisis, while many socialist countries, represented by China, were thriving and thriving. In particular, China's strong development has even pulled developed countries such as Europe and the United States out of the quagmire of the subprime mortgage crisis.</p><p>Therefore, I can assert that everything we consider common sense today is wrong, and future history will inevitably prove this. This is by no means an exaggeration, much less sensational. If you want to be a successful investor, be sure to understand this deeply.</p><p>So, what is the opportunity for a reversal of common sense? Simplicity is a crisis. In a sense, the crisis is not bad, it is even a good thing, it is an excellent opportunity.</p><p>In Chinese, the word \"crisis\" is composed of two parts: \"danger\" and \"opportunity,\" meaning that danger and opportunity are always two sides of the same coin, accompanying each other like a shadow and complementing each other.</p><p>When the \"socio-economic\" section of a newspaper is covered with terrifying headlines and news of the crisis, you might instinctively think, \"God, this is terrible!\" But others might think differently. They would think, \"Thank God, this is a godsend!\"</p><p>Not bad. Whether it's a man-made disaster like the 9/11 attacks or a natural disaster like the Great Japanese Tsunami, all disasters are tragic for our world and all of humanity. However, for investors, these crises also mean opportunities. Because the world before and after the crisis will be vastly different. Master these differences, rather than being swallowed up by them; Taking the initiative, rather than waiting passively, is the only way to become a winner in life. This is what true brave and wise men do.</p><p><b>Even if a crisis breaks out, there is no need to despair.</b></p><p>Remember, even if you lose everything in a crisis, even if you fall into the abyss of frustration and despair, there is always a chance to rise from the ashes. Because the deeper and heavier the despair, the deeper and fuller the happiness when opportunity comes. In fact, the more successful a person in this world is, the deeper and more unbearable the despair they have experienced. This has always been the case, without exception.</p><p>So, to those who are pessimistic and worldly-weary after experiencing a crisis, I want to say this: \"It's okay, it's alright. No matter how bad things happen, the sky won't fall. Not only that, fifteen years from now, the world will completely change, and that's your chance to be reborn.\"</p><p>That's right, no matter how devastated your life is by crises, no matter how frustrated and desperate you feel, you must persevere and live on. As long as you're alive, things will turn around. This is a normal part of life and a natural law. As the old Chinese proverb says, \"As long as the green hills remain, there is no firewood to burn.\"</p><p>My own life experience is a vivid example. There was once a close friend who chose suicide, a path of no return, after being abandoned by his wife; I myself had been depressed for a long time because of my divorce, but now I am thankful for God's gifts every day. Because fifteen years after my divorce, I am once again bathed in happiness and living a joyful life every day. My experience is by no means an isolated one. The same people and things happen around us every day, you just don't realize it.</p><p>In fact, everyone will be pessimistic and desperate at some stage of their life for some reason. But all pessimists must have one thing in common: ignorance of history, that is, complete ignorance of the fact that \"my life will be completely different in fifteen years.\" Just imagine: if you give up the idea of suicide, there might be an extremely wonderful life ahead of you.</p><p>According to data from the United States and Japan, the vast majority of suicides are young people around 20 years old. This is such a pity. If they hadn't died, fifteen years later, when they were 35, the world would have been very different, and their lives would have been completely different. This is definitely a high-probability event. At least it's worth hoping for, waiting once. As I said before, no matter what happens, no matter how much devastation and blow it causes you, just wait, the future will be different.</p><p>Take Japan as an example. When the Nikkei index crashed in 1965, many people must have fallen into the abyss of despair. However, Japan recovered in a very short time after that, reaching the peak of its prosperity in 1980. If you do the math, it's exactly fifteen years.</p><p>The same applies to the United States In the United States in 1930, countless people committed suicide after losing everything in the unprecedented Great Depression. However, if they had chosen to persevere and survive until 1945, their fate would have taken a dramatic turn. Because at the end of World War II in 1945, the United States was at an unprecedented peak of national power.</p><p>If you do the math, it's been another fifteen years. Warren Buffett famously said, \"Never short the United States, because this country has unlimited potential.\" I would also like to take this opportunity to say to everyone who is deeply in despair, \"Never short your life, because your life has unlimited potential.\" This is not comfort, but a fact.</p><p><b>The first priority in responding to the crisis</b></p><p>So, what is the first priority in responding to the crisis?</p><p>It's simple: you need to have a clear understanding of what's happening in this world.</p><p>Unfortunately, the vast majority of people cannot do this. Too many people remain indifferent even when there are countless signs of crisis around them, and fail to actively explore the deeper meaning behind these signs. Therefore, it is essential to maintain a correct sensitivity and clear understanding of the workings of this world and all the resulting phenomena at all times.</p><p>For example, what exactly happened to India's financial system requires searching for clues to all the signs. No matter what you discover or see, be sure to maintain this way of thinking and behaving. It is especially important to note that when you do this, you should never try to consult others. Maintain independence and avoid dependence on others. Otherwise, when problems arise, you'll be the one to suffer—those who can't think for themselves and only know how to dance with the will of others will become completely confused and helpless when things don't go well.</p><p>Therefore, when it comes to investing, it's only suitable to choose things you're familiar with and good at. Otherwise, if you buy something you don't even understand, it's hard not to be confused if something goes wrong.</p><p>This is the so-called \"don't do it if you're not familiar with it\" principle.</p><p>Everyone likes \"hot news\" and \"exclusive information\". Especially for seasoned investors like me, everyone wants to get some \"inside information\" from me and hopes to say, \"Dude, buy this! You're guaranteed to make a profit!\" But these people don't realize that when they rely on others, they themselves become incompetent.</p><p>So it's the same old saying: trust your head and only spend money on things you know and are familiar with. That's the right thing to do.</p><p>Think about it this way: Suppose you only have a maximum of twenty investment opportunities in your long life, what would you do? If nothing unexpected happens, you will definitely be extremely cautious and focused on your potential investment targets, right? \"I heard about a really great investment project from so-and-so!\" — You'll never have that kind of whimsical thought again, right? They won't be searching the world for random or so-called \"hot news\" or \"exclusive information\" anymore, right?</p><p>That's the principle.</p><p>To put it bluntly, if you really can't find any suitable investment opportunities, staying in your own familiar world and doing nothing is better than jumping into an unfamiliar world and messing around aimlessly. At least you won't lose everything.</p><p>In fact, this is exactly what all successful investors do. When they don't understand the situation, they choose to \"stand still\" and do nothing. They just sit there, looking out the window, waiting quietly, waiting for an investment target to appear that can truly convince them. Once they discover something like this, they hold on tightly, closely following its trajectory until they are absolutely certain it is safe before taking action.</p><p>Once you invest real money, the rest is simple: you just need to wait for the investment target to appreciate in value. That's right, all you need to do is wait, wait patiently. The reason you have this patience is because you have the confidence to know exactly where the selling point (to sell your investment target) is and when it will appear.</p><p>As long as it's a field you're familiar with, no matter what changes occur, whether it's good or bad, you can immediately understand the situation and face it calmly. Conversely, if your investment is based on the advice of others without thinking things through yourself, that is, if you don't understand the most basic things about what you are investing in or why you bought it in the first place, then if something goes wrong, you will only be at a loss.</p><p>Whether you're buying a car, clothes, or anything else, this principle applies: as long as you know more than others, are more professional and familiar than others, you can get more favorable deals and buy good quality and cheap things than others.</p><p>One of the most classic lessons learned from the investment world is that when everyone around you fails in their investments, as long as you invest in something you are familiar with, in most cases, your investment will eventually appreciate in value, and significantly so.</p><p><b>It is precisely because too many people fail that opportunities arise.</b></p><p>While most people taste the bitter wine of investment failure, smart investors can navigate it with ease. The more the economy is bad and everyone is discouraged and pessimistic, the higher the returns for those who seize the opportunity to act decisively when the economy recovers.</p><p>Therefore, I want to repeatedly emphasize: the ironclad rule of investing is not to do anything unless you are We must never make an exception, and we must not take chances.</p><p>As long as you can do this, you won't have to worry about not making a lot of money.</p><p>Of course, before investing, it is essential to conduct thorough research on the investment target. If you really want to make money, you should spare no effort in information gathering. Conversely, if you really can't find a suitable opportunity, keeping your money in the bank and waiting for the right opportunity is the only reasonable choice.</p><p>However, even putting money in the bank does not mean it is absolutely safe. Here's an example. In 2006 and 2007, a considerable number of people realized that the economy was in trouble because the subprime mortgage problem was already getting worse, but most people did nothing and watched helplessly as their money in the bank and their real estate properties disappeared.</p><p>Therefore, when a crisis strikes, deciding which bank is more reliable to put your money in is a question that requires close attention. Specifically, when it comes to banks, bigger isn't necessarily better; the key is not scale, but financial soundness. Be sure to entrust your hard-earned money to financially sound banks for safekeeping, otherwise you won't even have time to cry when disaster strikes.</p><p>I personally have quite a few Russian bonds. Aside from high interest rates, Russia's total government debt as a percentage of GDP is not very high, so the financial soundness of bonds is relatively reliable. This is very attractive to me and reassures me. But that doesn't mean you can buy Russian bonds even if you can't figure out where Russia is on a map, just because Jim Rogers did.</p><p>In short, ignore advice from newspapers or someone on the Internet to \"buy Russian bonds,\" regardless of the reason or whether that advice is correct. Because you don't understand this yourself. Any investment behavior is wrong if it's something you don't understand yourself.</p><p>For example, I not only know where Russia is on the map, but I also know how to find Russian middlemen. As for visiting Russia in person, that's no problem. So, if someone asks me, \"How should I invest in Russia?\" my answer will definitely be, \"If you don't know how to invest in Russia, you shouldn't invest in Russia.\" It's that simple.</p><p>If you have the spare time to find ways to invest in Russia, it's better not to invest in Russia at all.</p><p>Investing involves risks, and decisions must be made with caution. Even I myself, who have been in the investment business since the 1970s, nearly half a century now, have not always been a winner.</p><p><b>Which assets must be held during a crisis?</b></p><p>What assets should you hold when a crisis occurs?</p><p>Simple, US dollars. I personally hold a large amount of US dollars.</p><p>That's weird. Isn't it said that the United States is the world's largest debtor country, that the debt bubble is on the verge of bursting, and that the situation is getting worse? If that's the case, why still hold US dollars?</p><p>Let's analyze this matter. First, one must understand the thoughts and practices of most people. When a crisis breaks out, people often think, \"The US dollar is a safe haven.\" Indeed, precisely because of the danger, people must find a safe place for their assets, and their preferred safe haven is the US dollar. Because of this, people will see that the more there is a crisis, the more the dollar will appreciate. This is true even if the perpetrators of this crisis are Americans themselves.</p><p>The more severe the crisis, the more exaggerated the enthusiasm for the dollar and the magnitude of its appreciation—note that this is a typical signal and should not be missed. My approach was simple: decisively sell the US dollars and buy something else worthwhile to invest in.</p><p>Of course, the US dollar is not the only safe-haven tool. How to avoid risks during a crisis ultimately depends on what kind of crisis occurred. However, with the exception of the US dollar, it is also true that most currencies depreciate during a crisis. As for gold, while it also has investment value, its price generally falls in the initial stages of a crisis. The reason is simple: a crisis causes a cash shortage, and people who are short of money often rush to sell gold and buy cash for emergencies—note that this is another investment signal. I will most likely sell my already appreciating US dollars and buy depreciating gold and silver. However, what should be done depends on the situation at the time, and the approach will vary depending on the circumstances.</p><p>Pay close attention to the fact that even if gold prices fall in the initial stages of a crisis, they will rebound rapidly. When people realize that their country's economy is in trouble, the situation is deteriorating, and the currency is constantly depreciating, their first reaction is often to buy gold and silver—as history has proven countless times.</p><p>Many experts and professors may find this phenomenon somewhat unbelievable. They might think that gold and silver can't be used as food, have little practical value, and are less liquid than currency, so buying gold and silver to hedge is a typical layman's approach. However, there is no need to mind. Most people are not experts, they are just ordinary people. That's how they do it: they buy gold and silver when a crisis occurs. Therefore, experts can let these ordinary people off the hook and let them buy whatever they want!</p><p>As for myself, I bought a lot of gold and silver a long time ago, and some more not long ago. In my view, if the price of gold and silver falls, it simply provides another buying opportunity, not the other way around. The reason for this is that in previous crises, even if the price of gold and silver falls temporarily, it will rebound quickly. This is what history has taught me about investing.</p><p>Because the severity of this crisis will be unprecedented, no matter how much experts, professors, and central banks around the world trumpet the \"uselessness of gold and silver,\" most people will likely ignore it and once again flock to the counters selling gold and silver. I am the same way; I have already bought a large amount of gold and silver, making thorough preparations for the future.</p><p>It is particularly important to point out that gold is a favorite among Chinese people. Before China's reform and opening up, gold was difficult to buy and extremely expensive. In addition, most people did not have much money, so for most Chinese people, gold was a rare commodity, something they could only hope for and could not attain. Today's China is completely different. Buying gold has become incredibly simple. Not only can you buy gold jewelry anytime, anywhere, but you can also buy gold coins and gold futures. You can even buy gold bars at the branches of the Bank of China.</p><p>This demonstrates the investment potential of gold.</p><p>However, as I said before, the biggest taboo when it comes to investing is relying on others. Other people's opinions are not important; what matters is your own investment philosophy and insights. My investment insight is that the reason we buy gold and silver during a crisis is not because these things have objective financial soundness or security, but because most people instinctively believe that these things are financially sound and secure.</p><p>The same applies to the US dollar. When a crisis erupts, people instinctively believe that the dollar is more reliable than the pound sterling and the euro. Note that this is still just a subjective consciousness, not an objective fact. However, whether it is objective or not is no longer important, because people will inevitably act according to their subjective consciousness. That's the real point. And as long as there is action, there will inevitably be results—this is what inspires investors.</p><p><b>What should companies do to cope with the crisis?</b></p><p>In response to crises, how can companies plan ahead and prevent problems before they occur?</p><p>Simply put, the first step is to significantly reduce debt. Not only should you reduce your own debt, but you should also pay close attention to your clients' debt situation. Because in the event of a crisis, clients with poor financial conditions and heavy debts will definitely drag you down and cause you huge trouble. At the very least, payment collection will become a major problem.</p><p>No company is willing to easily reject or abandon any customer. I completely understand that. The problem is that customers with excessive debt are a hot potato, and once problems arise, the situation often deteriorates rapidly, catching you off guard. Furthermore, the fact that a customer owes so much debt itself indicates that they already have problems, and being aware of these problems and preparing for them in advance is obviously not harmful to you.</p><p>In the event of a crisis, even if only a few customers go bankrupt, the impact on you should not be underestimated. Even if your own business is in good shape and financially healthy, the bankruptcy of an individual customer will have varying degrees of ripple effects on your other customers. Therefore, even if it is simply for reasons of responsibility to customers, you should take this matter very seriously and remain highly vigilant at all times against those trading parties who are burdened with debt.</p><p>Moreover, it is also important to know which country your customer is from, and it needs to be strictly monitored using the above principles. Because dealing with companies in high-risk countries is much more likely to get into trouble than in low-risk countries.</p><p>Another important point is to focus on what your company is best at and has the most advantages in, and try not to be greedy or fickle. Especially during times of crisis, we must never blindly pursue so-called diversified operations. Because they failed to quickly enter new business areas and did not implement diversification strategies, too many companies have been criticized for \"lacking a sense of speed,\" and this assessment is clearly unfair. The reason is simple: it is dangerous to blindly enter unknown territory. Compared to the potential opportunities, there is probably a greater possibility of encountering more problems. In fact, the more companies choose diversified business models, the more likely they are to get involved in all sorts of troubles and fall into all sorts of traps, which will lead to a continuous deterioration in their operating performance. Such lessons are by no means uncommon.</p><p>In short, the more difficult the times, the more companies should focus on the businesses they are familiar with and good at, and never be distracted. At the same time, it is also necessary to significantly reduce debt and avoid dealing with companies that owe too much. In addition, developing the habit of inventorying assets during a crisis, identifying those assets that are not very necessary, and then selling them to increase your cash reserves is also a good strategy.</p><p>Finally, let's make a summary. As the saying goes, \"Cash is king.\" Because crises are extremely unpredictable but inevitable, preparing enough cash in advance to prevent them from happening before they occur is the key to dealing with them. The key to ensuring cash flow is to sell excess assets in a timely manner and use the money to repay debts, thereby reducing the financial burden on the company. Then, focus entirely on your core business areas that you are best at.</p><p>As long as you can do these things, no crisis can defeat you or even hurt you.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA\">巴伦周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa1cab0c234d687b17edd1782d0366e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Agq_VaKRs-LMfvQdOfRSAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195922259","content_text":"吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers）是一个混杂了专业知识与街头智慧的投资家，没有人会忽视他对经济大势的判断。罗杰斯近期发出警告，在新冠疫情之后，世界经济拿到了最糟糕的剧本，一场比「雷曼时刻」更大的危机必然会到来。\n那么，等到危机真正来临时，我们应该怎么办？吉姆·罗杰斯告诫我们，不要太过于相信常识，因为任何常识每隔十五年都会迎来戏剧性的反转。本文选自本书第三章《危机来临时，我们应该怎么办？》，它记录了罗杰斯的危机应对指南。\n任何常识每隔十五年必会戏剧性反转\n危机到来时，我们到底应该如何应对呢？\n首先，要彻底改变你对危机的认知方式。危机这个东西，依照一定的频率，每隔一段时期必然会发生。而你现在深信不疑的许多常识，十五年后也许就会大错特错。\n让我们再次回望历史。1930年所有人都认为绝对正确的常识，到了1945年又变成了什么样呢？显然不可能再是1930年的样子，因为第二次世界大战已经改变了一切。\n可见，对我们这个世界来说，变化才是常态，不变反而是变态。世界永远在变，从未停止。\n所以我才会一再主张每一个人都应该向历史学习，都应该敬畏历史。中国有句古话「以史为镜，可以知兴替」，就是这个意思。\n当然，常识的反转周期不一定非得是十五年。有时也许是十年，有时也许是二十五年。但是，当我们追溯海量的历史数据时，会发现大体上每隔十到十五年，一次巨大的变化便会来临。这是一个大概率事件。\n举个例子。1991年，曾经与美国并肩的超级大国苏联解体了。这在十年前的1981年几乎是不可想象的事情。1989年柏林墙倒塌后，仅仅两年时间，苏联这个所谓「红色帝国」便彻底消失了。受此影响，许多人断言资本主义意识形态取得了历史性的「终极胜利」，其结果已然不可逆转。其中最具代表性的，就是日裔美国学者弗朗西斯·福山发表的「历史终结论」。可区区十五年之后，恰恰是资本主义自身发生了严重危机，而以中国为代表的诸多社会主义国家，却是一片欣欣向荣、蒸蒸日上的景象。特别是中国的强劲发展，甚至把欧美等发达国家从次贷危机的泥潭中拉了出来。\n由此，我可以断言，今天我们认为是常识的东西全部都是错的，未来的历史必然会证明这一点。这绝不是什么言过其实，更加谈不上耸人听闻。如果你想成为一个成功的投资家，务必深刻理解这一点。\n那么，常识反转的契机又是什么呢？简单，是危机。从某种意义上说，危机并不坏，甚至是一个好东西，是绝佳的机会。\n在汉语中，「危机」这个词是由「危」和「机」两个部分构成的，意味着危险与机会永远是一枚硬币的两面，如影随形、相辅相成。\n当报纸的「社会经济」版面被可怕的大字标题与危机的消息所覆盖时，你可能会本能地这样想：「上帝啊，这可真是太惨了！」可是，另一些人也许与你的想法不一样。他们会这样想：「感谢上苍，这简直是天赐良机！」\n不错。无论是「9·11」事件这样的人祸，还是「日本大海啸」这样的天灾，所有灾难对我们这个世界以及全人类来说都是令人悲伤的事情，可是，对投资家而言，这些危机也同时意味着机会。因为危机前后的世界，将有巨大的不同。驾驭这些不同，而不是被其吞没；主动出击，而不是被动等待，是成为人生赢家的必经之路。这才是真正的勇者和智者之所为。\n即便危机爆发也无须绝望\n要记住，即便在危机中失去一切，即便陷入沮丧与绝望的深渊，凤凰涅槃、绝处逢生的机会也永远存在。因为绝望越深、越重，机会来临时的幸福也便越沉、越满。事实上，这个世界上越成功的人物，曾经历过的绝望便越为深重，越难以忍受。从来如此，从无例外。\n所以，对那些经历危机而悲观厌世的人，我想这样说：「没关系，不要紧。无论发生了多坏的事，天也塌不下来。何止如此，十五年之后就会完全变天，那时就是你重生的机会。」\n没错，无论你的人生被危机如何摧残，也无论你的心情如何沮丧绝望，也要顽强地活下去。只要活着，就会迎来转机。这是人生常态，也是自然规律。正如中国那句古老的谚语所言：「留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。」\n我自己的人生经历，就是一个鲜活的例子。曾经有一个好友，因为被妻子抛弃而选择了自杀这条不归路；我本人也曾因离婚长期情绪低迷，而现在却每天都在感谢上帝的恩赐。因为在离婚的十五年之后，我又重新沐浴在幸福中，每天过着快乐的生活。我的经历绝非个例。相同的人和事每天都在我们身边发生，只是你没有意识到罢了。\n事实上，每一个人都会在人生的某个阶段因为某个理由而悲观绝望。但所有的悲观厌世者一定有一个共通点，那就是对历史的无知，即对「十五年后自己的人生将截然不同」这一点一无所知。不妨想象一下：如果放弃自杀的念头，未来也许有一个极为精彩的人生在前方等着你也说不定。\n以美国和日本的数据来看，绝大多数自杀者都是20岁前后的年轻人。这实在是太可惜了。如果他们不死，十五年后，当他们35岁的时候，世界将大为不同，他们的人生也将截然不同。这绝对是大概率事件。至少值得期望一下，等待一次。还是那句话，无论发生了什么事，也无论这件事带给你多大的摧残和打击，等一等，未来会不一样。\n以日本为例。1965年日经指数崩盘的时候，想必有许多人陷入了绝望的深渊。但是，那之后的日本在极短的时间内满血复活，到1980年迎来了繁荣的巅峰。掐指一算，正好十五年。\n美国也一样。1930年的美国，有多少人由于在空前的「大萧条」中失去一切而轻生，可如果当时他们能选择顽强地活下去，熬到1945年，便会迎来戏剧性的命运转机。因为1945年第二次世界大战结束时的美国，其国力之鼎盛堪称空前绝后。\n掐指一算，又是十五年。股神巴菲特有一句名言：「永远不要做空美国，因为这个国家有无限潜力。」我也想借花献佛，对每一个深陷绝望中的人说：「永远不要做空自己的人生，因为你的人生有无限潜力。」这不是安慰，是事实。\n应对危机的第一要务\n那么，应对危机的第一要务是什么呢？\n简单，要对这个世界正在发生什么有个清醒的认识。\n遗憾的是，绝大多数人做不到这一点。有太多的人即便周边发生了无数危机的征兆，也表现得无动于衷，不能做到积极地探寻这些征兆背后的深刻含意。所以说，一定要对这个世界的运行机制，以及由此导致的所有表象随时保持正确的敏感与清晰的理解。\n比如说，印度的金融体系到底发生了什么，必须探求所有征兆的蛛丝马迹。无论你发现了什么，看见了什么，一定要保持这样的思维和行为方式。特别需要注意的是，当你这样做的时候，千万不要试图咨询他人的意见。一定要保持独立性，切忌依赖他人。否则当问题发生的时候，就有你受的了——那些不会用自己的脑袋思考，只知道随他人意志起舞的人，一旦进展不顺，便会表现得彻底蒙圈，手足无措。\n所以说投资这码事，只适合选择自己熟悉的事、擅长的事。否则，买了自己都搞不懂的东西，万一有点什么差池，想不蒙圈都难。\n这就是所谓「不熟不做」的道理。\n所有人都喜欢「热点消息」「独家情报」。特别对我这样的资深投资家来说，每个人都想从我这儿搞到点「内部消息」，都希望从我嘴里说一句「哥们儿，买这个吧！绝对稳赚不赔！」可这些人没有意识到，当他们依赖别人的时候，他们自己便会成为无能的人。\n所以还是那句话：相信自己的脑袋，只在自己知道的东西、熟悉的东西身上花钱。这样做就对了。\n不妨这样想问题：假设你漫长的人生中，顶天了只有二十次投资机会，你会怎么做？不出意料的话，你一定会对你的潜在投资标的无比谨慎，无比专注对吗？「我从某某那儿听说了一个特别棒的投资项目！」——这种异想天开的念头不会再有了对吗？也不会再满世界地寻找那些有的没的或者是所谓「热点消息」「独家情报」了对吗？\n就是这个道理。\n不客气地说，如果实在找不到什么合适的投资机会，待在你自己熟悉的世界里什么都不做，也比跳进你不熟悉的世界瞎折腾强，至少不会血本无归。\n事实上，这正是所有成功的投资家的做法。当搞不清状况的时候，他们会选择「按兵不动」，什么都不做。他们只是坐在那里，望着窗外，静静地等待，等待一个能真正说服自己的投资标的出现。一旦发现这样的东西，他们便会紧紧地抓住不放，密切地追踪它的发展轨迹，一直到确信万无一失才会付诸行动。\n一旦把真金白银砸进去，剩下的事就简单了：你只需静待投资标的升值即可。没错，你需要做的事还是等待，耐心地等待。之所以你有这份耐心，是因为你有信心，明确地知道卖点（出手你的投资标的）在哪里以及会在什么时候出现。\n只要是自己熟悉的领域，无论发生任何变化，忽好还是忽坏，你都能立刻搞清楚状况，泰然处之。反之亦然，如果你的投资是听从他人的建议，自己完全没过脑子，也就是说，你投资的东西到底是个什么玩意儿，自己当初为什么买了它，这些最基本的状况你都搞不懂，那万一出现什么闪失，你就只有抓瞎的份儿了。\n无论是买车、买衣服，还是买其他任何东西，这个道理都适用：只要你比别人知道得多，比别人更专业、更熟悉，你就比别人更能得到有利的交易条件，买到物美价廉的东西。\n投资界最经典的经验教训之一就是：当身边所有人均投资失败的时候，只要你投资的是一个自己熟知的事物，在大多数情况下，你的投资标的最终都能升值，而且是大幅升值。\n正因为有太多的人失败，所以才有机会\n当绝大多数人品尝投资失败的苦酒时，聪明的投资者却能游刃有余。越是在景气不佳，每一个人都灰心丧气、悲观失望的时候，抓住机会果断出手的人在景气恢复时得到的回报就越高。\n所以我要反复强调：投资的铁律是不熟不做。万万不可破例，不可心存侥幸。\n只要你能做到这一点，就不愁赚不到大钱。\n当然，在投资前，必须针对投资对象做好充分的调查研究。如果真心想赚钱，就应该在信息收集方面不惜劳力。反之，如果实在找不到合适的机会，把钱放在银行静待时机才是唯一合理的选择。\n不过，即便是把钱放银行，也并不意味着绝对安全。举个例子。2006年和2007年，有相当多的人已经意识到经济出了状况，因为彼时次贷问题已然日益严重，可是大多数人却什么也没做，眼睁睁地看着自己银行里的钱和名下的不动产化为乌有。\n所以，当危机来临时，把钱放在哪家银行更靠谱一些也是一个需要高度注意的问题。具体地说，银行这个东西，绝不是越大越好，重点不是规模，而是财务健全度。一定要把自己的血汗钱交给那些财务健全的银行保管，否则灾难降临时你连哭都来不及。\n我个人手头有不少俄罗斯债券。除了利息较高之外，俄罗斯的政府总债务占GDP的比例不算太高，因此相对来说债券的财务健全度比较靠谱。这一点非常吸引我，也让我放心。但这并不是说，即便你连俄罗斯在地图上的位置都搞不清楚，也可以购买俄罗斯的债券，理由是吉姆·罗杰斯这样做了。\n总之，不要理睬报纸或互联网上某个人发出的「购买俄罗斯债券」的建议，无论那个建议出于什么理由以及是否正确都与你无关。因为这个东西你自己不了解。而只要是你自己不了解的东西，任何投资行为都是错误的。\n就拿我自己来说，我不但知道俄罗斯在地图上的位置，也对如何寻找俄罗斯掮客（中间人）了如指掌。至于亲自造访俄罗斯本土则更是不在话下。所以，如果有人问我：「应该如何投资俄罗斯？」我的回答一定是：「如果不知道如何投资俄罗斯，你就不应该投资俄罗斯。」就这么简单。\n如果有那个闲工夫去找投资俄罗斯的方法，那还不如不投资俄罗斯。\n投资有风险，决策须谨慎。即便是我自己，从20世纪70年代开始做投资这一行，迄今已经近半个世纪了，也并不总是常胜将军。\n哪些资产是危机时必须持有的\n危机发生时，应该持有哪些资产呢？\n简单，美元。我本人就持有大量美元。\n这就奇怪了。不是说美国是世界上最大的债务国，债务泡沫已近破裂的边缘，且情况正日益恶化吗？既然如此，为何还要持有美元呢？\n让我们来分析一下这件事。首先，必须理解大多数人的想法和做法。当危机爆发时，人们往往会这么想：「美元是安全的避难所。」没错，正因为有危险，所以人们必须为自己的财产找个安全的地方，而他们首选的避险工具就是美元。正因为这样，人们会看到：往往越是有危机，美元就越会升值。哪怕这个危机的肇事者是美国人自己，亦是如此。\n危机越严重，人们对美元的狂热以及美元升值的幅度就越夸张——注意，这是一个典型的信号，千万不要错过。而我的做法也很简单，那就是果断地卖掉美元，再买点什么别的值得投资的东西。\n当然，美元不是唯一的避险工具。危机时应该如何避险，归根结底与发生了什么样的危机有关。不过，除了美元之外，危机发生的时候大多数货币都会贬值，这也是事实。至于黄金，尽管也有投资价值，不过一般来说在危机的最初阶段，金价往往会下跌。理由很简单，危机发生会造成现金短缺，手头缺钱的人们往往会匆匆卖掉黄金，入手现金来应急——注意，这又是一个投资信号。大概率事件我会卖掉手中已然升值的美元，买入贬值的黄金和白银。不过，到底应该怎么做也要看当时的情况，随着情况不同，做法也会有所不同。\n千万注意，在危机的初始阶段黄金价格即便会下跌，也会迅速反弹。当人们意识到自己国家的经济出了问题，情况日益恶化，货币不断贬值的时候，脑袋里的第一个反应，往往就是买金和买银——历史无数次地证明了这一点。\n对这种现象，很多专家教授可能会觉得有些不可思议。他们也许会认为金银又不能当饭吃，没什么使用价值，和货币相比流动性又差，靠买金银避险是典型的外行人的做法。不过，没必要介意。绝大多数人都不是专家，只是市井小民而已。他们的做法就是这样，就是要在发生危机的时候买金和买银。所以专家大人们大可以放这些庶民一马，随他们爱买啥买啥吧！\n至于我个人，从很久以前就入手了不少金银，且不久之前又多买了一些。在我看来，如果金银的价格下跌，只不过是提供了又一个买入的机会，而不是相反。之所以这么想，是因为在历次危机中，金银的价格即便一时下跌，也会迅速反弹。这就是历史教给我的投资之道。\n正因为这一次危机的严重程度将是空前的，所以无论专家教授和各国央行如何鼓噪「金银无用论」，相信大多数人也会充耳不闻，并再一次蜂拥到售卖金银的柜台前。我也一样，现已买入大量金银，为未来做好了万全的准备。\n特别需要指出的是，黄金是中国人的最爱。中国改革开放以前，黄金不好买且价格极高，再加上绝大多数人都没什么钱，所以对大多数中国人来说，黄金是一个稀罕物，可望而不可即。今天的中国则截然不同。买金子已然异常简单。不但可以随时随地购买黄金饰品，还可以买金币和黄金期货，去中行分行的营业厅甚至可以买到金条。\n可见黄金的投资潜力。\n不过，还是那句话，投资这码事最忌讳的就是仰仗他人。别人的意见不重要，重要的是自己的投资理念和见解。而我的投资见解是：之所以危机时要买金银，不是因为这些东西拥有客观上的财务健全性或安全性，而是因为大多数人都会本能地这样认为，即「认为」这些东西在财务上是健全和安全的。\n美元也一样。危机爆发时，人们会本能地认为与英镑和欧元相比，美元更靠谱一些。注意，这依然只是一种主观意识，而不是客观事实。但是否客观已然不重要，因为人们必然会依照主观意识行动。这才是真正的重点。而只要有行动便必然有结果——为投资家提供灵感的，就是这一点。\n应对危机，企业应该做什么\n在应对危机方面，企业怎么做才能未雨绸缪，防患于未然呢？\n简单，首先应该大幅削减债务，不但要减少自己的债务，还要多多关注客户的债务情况。因为一旦发生危机，那些财务状况不佳，债务缠身的客户绝对会连累你，给你造成巨大的麻烦。起码货款回收就会成为大问题。\n没有一家企业愿意轻易排斥或放弃任何一个客户。这一点我完全能理解。可问题是，欠债过多的客户是块烫手山芋，一旦出问题，情况往往会迅速恶化，令你措手不及。再者说，客户欠这么多债，本身就说明他已经有问题，而对这些问题了然于胸，并提前做好准备，显然对你没有坏处。\n一旦发生危机，即便只有几个客户破产，对你的影响也不容小觑。退一步讲，就算你自己的企业状态良好，财务健康，个别客户破产对你的其他客户也会有不同程度的波及效应。所以哪怕仅仅是出于对客户负责的理由，你也要充分重视这件事，要时时刻刻对那些债务缠身的交易方保持高度警惕。\n不只如此，你的客户是哪一个国家的企业，这一点也很重要，也需要用上述原则予以严格监控。因为与高风险国家的企业打交道，陷入麻烦的概率要远高于低风险国家。\n还有一点很重要，那就是专注做你的企业最擅长、最有优势的业务，尽量不要得陇望蜀，见异思迁。特别是危机的时候，万万不可盲目追求所谓多角化经营。由于没能快速进入新的商业领域，没有实行多角化策略，有太多企业受到「缺乏速度感」的批评，而这种评价显然是不公正的。理由很简单，盲目进入未知领域很危险。与潜在的机遇相比，恐怕遇到更多问题的可能性更大。事实上，越是那些选择多元化业务模式的企业，越容易卷入各种各样的麻烦，掉进各种各样的陷阱，从而令经营业绩不断恶化。这样的教训绝不鲜见。\n总之，越是困难时期，企业便越要专注于自己熟悉、擅长的业务，千万不能三心二意；与此同时，还要大力削减债务，避免与那些欠债太多的企业打交道。另外，危机时养成盘点资产的习惯，找出那些必要性不大的资产，然后卖掉它们，增加手头的现金储备，也不失为一个良策。\n最后，让我们来做一个小结。常言道：「现金为王」，正因为危机极难预知却必然会到来，所以提前备好足够的现金以防患于未然，是应对危机的王道。而确保现金流的关键一招是及时卖掉多余的资产，用这笔钱偿还债务，以减轻企业的财务负担；然后，完全专注于自己最擅长的核心业务领域。\n只要你能做到这些，任何危机都打不倒你，甚至伤不到你。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809410569,"gmtCreate":1627386333851,"gmtModify":1703488873060,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571552996196002","idStr":"3571552996196002"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809410569","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120859674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1627352185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120859674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120859674","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","content":"<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs it possible for Chinese concept stocks to withdraw from the US market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-27 10:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Jia Ming</p><p>On July 23, a document issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee entitled \"Opinions on Further Reducing the Homework Burden and Extracurricular Training Burden of Students in the Compulsory Education Stage\" circulated online. The \"Opinions\" include measures such as strictly prohibiting the \"capitalization\" operation of education and training institutions and prohibiting all subject-based training institutions from going public for financing, causing overseas-listed education stocks to fall in response. For example, New Oriental's stock price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once \"halved\" (New Oriental S closed down 40.61% on the 23rd and another 47.02% on the 26th; New Oriental Online closed down 28.07% and 33.45% on the 23rd and 26th respectively; New Oriental closed down 54.22% on the 23rd in the US stock market), Gaotu fell by 63.26% on the 23rd in the US stock market, and TAL Education Group fell by more than 70%.</p><p>The official document was released on the evening of July 24, and multiple media outlets have reposted the full text. Interested readers can find it to read.</p><p>Today's article does not analyze Document No. 40 issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee, but rather aims to explore two issues.</p><p>First, why do so many Chinese companies choose to list in the United States?</p><p>Second, considering incidents such as Sino-US relations, Luckin Coffee's fraud, and Didi's removal from its platform, what will be the future fate of these Chinese concept stocks listed overseas?</p><p><b>main reason</b></p><p>Chinese companies are more enthusiastic about listing on U.S. stock exchanges than almost any other non-U.S. company, even after a significant cooling in U.S.-China relations.</p><p>In 2019, 32 companies went public in the United States, 34 in 2020, and 37 companies completed their listings in the United States in the first half of 2021. According to wind data, as of July 2021, a total of 286 Chinese companies were listed in the United States—including those registered in offshore centers such as Hong Kong or the Cayman Islands, but whose revenue and profits mostly came from mainland China—in fact, most Chinese companies listed in the United States adopted this listing method.</p><p>Since 2018, while suppressing Chinese technology companies, the United States has raised audit requirements for Chinese companies listing in the US. The overall environment for Chinese companies listing in the US is not favorable. So why do Chinese companies still resolutely choose to list in the US?</p><p>Several well-known reasons are:</p><p>First, the United States' capital market was established relatively early, and its financing system and laws and regulations are relatively more mature and complete. From the perspective of the overall financing environment, the United States is generally optimistic about internet companies and high-tech companies. The same stock listed in the United States is relatively easier to obtain a higher valuation and raise more funds.</p><p>Secondly, and more importantly, the US capital market adopts a registration system, which does not set profit thresholds for companies planning to go public. As long as your company's business grows rapidly and occupies a large market share, it can go public even if it loses money. my country adopts a review system, and the necessary condition for applying for A-share listing is to be profitable for three consecutive years.</p><p>Internet companies are growing rapidly, so they are always very short of money. Some internet companies, after only a few years of establishment, may become unicorns with a valuation exceeding one billion yuan. At this time, they face pressure from investors to monetize and further develop, and need to prepare for a large-scale fundraising listing. However, most companies may have just started to make a profit at this time, or even not yet, so they cannot meet the conditions for three consecutive years of profitability and therefore cannot list on the A-share market for financing. If the company waits two or three years to go public and raise funds, it may not only miss the best development opportunity and fail to raise funds, but it is also uncertain whether the company can survive. Therefore, I can only go abroad.</p><p>Third, the length of my country's listing approval cycle varies. If the listing approval is suspended and a company wants to go public, the entire process may take three or four years. Time is money, and many companies can't afford to wait.</p><p>The above three reasons, especially the second and third, should be the two main reasons why Chinese companies go public in the United States. However, in addition to these, there are several other reasons that should not be ignored.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b35bd20e43d6773e8057d5090c82e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Reason of origin</b></p><p>We often say now that Chinese internet companies are doing very well. We often refer to the year around 2000 as the first year of the Internet in China. However, we must not forget that in the early days of internet development, few people could understand this business model, so these companies could not obtain bank loans.</p><p>In fact, it's not just in the early stages of internet startups; all startups find it difficult to obtain bank loans. Due to commercial banks' strict loan approval procedures and inherent risk aversion, they would rather earn less loan interest than lend money to stable companies.</p><p>Banks are not institutions that invest in startups. Investing in startups should be something that angel investors and venture capital firms do. At that time, there was no venture capital (VC) or private equity (PE) in my country. These internet companies can't find money in China, but they need money to develop. What should they do? Only foreign capital can be introduced.</p><p>It's important to understand that in the early stages of our reform and opening up, we also exchanged domestic markets for foreign capital and technology. Therefore, as Deng Xiaoping said, it doesn't matter if it's a black cat or a white cat, as long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat. Capital is inherently neutral and doesn't care about good or bad. If we only use geography as the basis for classification, that's certainly acceptable. However, when making value judgments, it is more important to look at the specific things that these capitals are used for, rather than the origin of these capitals.</p><p>Therefore, many of my country's internet giants (which will not be given examples here to avoid unnecessary trouble) were Sino-foreign joint ventures when they were first established. This raises another question: the legitimacy of the VIE architecture.</p><p>Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure, often referred to as \"agreement control,\" refers to a listed Entity registered overseas by a company planning to go public, separated from its mainland business operator. The overseas listed Entity controls the domestic business operator through an agreement and transfers revenue and profits to the overseas company. The VIE architecture has spawned many different forms, but the essence is the same, which will not be elaborated on here.</p><p>Because Chinese law strictly restricts the entry of foreign capital into the \"information transmission, software and information technology services\" industry, foreign capital is not allowed to directly invest in telecommunications and internet-related companies. Of course, companies in these industries are not allowed to directly raise funds or list overseas. Therefore, these companies adopt a VIE structure to circumvent regulation.</p><p>Regulators are certainly aware of this form, and the reason they haven't completely banned it is twofold: firstly, this structure is not \"obviously illegal,\" and secondly, it is certainly a form of regulatory wisdom.</p><p>However, if such companies are listed domestically, they still have to strictly comply with the regulatory requirements for listing, which raises questions about the legality of this VIE structure, so they cannot be listed directly domestically.</p><p>This means that some internet companies have had crooked roots from the day they were born. If your roots aren't crooked, you won't survive; if you survive, you'll leave behind a bad background—\"lack of money - introducing foreign capital - becoming a joint venture - adopting a VIE structure - having questions about the legality of domestic listing - listing overseas.\"</p><p>Things are much better now. my country's multi-tiered capital market is becoming increasingly complete, and there are more RMB venture capitalists and private equity firms. The problem of not being able to find money domestically has been greatly alleviated.</p><p>In \"The Silent Majority,\" Wang Xiaobo said that making value judgments is too easy. If we were a male rabbit, we would naturally know that the big bad wolf is bad and the female rabbit is good. But the rabbit doesn't know how to memorize the multiplication table. Understanding the above background is somewhat like a multiplication table: no matter what value assessment we make about internet companies going public overseas—how we assess it is our freedom—at least our judgment is based on the complete background of the matter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4d1b82e56c3a630026ec35cf9663d6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Other reasons</b></p><p>Two other reasons are the free flow of capital and the pursuit of dual-class share structures.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, since many companies have funding sources including international private equity funds and venture capital firms, and China implements foreign exchange controls, listing domestically would make it troublesome for venture capital funds to profit and exit, and there would be exchange rate risks. Therefore, they are also motivated to encourage business owners to list overseas. Some business owners have ambitions to become multinational corporations and are willing to list in the United States. This not only helps expand the company's brand awareness, but also facilitates its global fundraising and asset layout, achieving multiple benefits at once.</p><p>I need to be a little more verbose. Private equity and venture capital are all about high risk and high return. As long as they can make money in accordance with the law, we can't say there's anything wrong with them exiting after their companies go public. Of course, if someone violates the law or discipline, they will inevitably be held accountable according to law.</p><p>Some might ask, does listing in Hong Kong allow capital to flow freely? Entrepreneurs and early investors in listed companies can easily convert the Hong Kong dollars raised through an IPO into US dollars or any other currency. This brings us to another reason: \"equal rights for all shares\" and \"different rights for all shares\".</p><p>Companies listed in mainland my country must strictly abide by the regulations on equal rights for all shareholders, meaning that the number of shares you own in the company determines the voting rights you have when voting on major events. This is why many companies do not want to go public, fearing that they will not own many shares after listing, which will lead to the company founders having no say on the board of directors or even being kicked out. This is also the reason for the previously popular \"barbarian\" hostile takeovers. As long as someone else holds more shares than you, even if you are the founder, you will be kicked out.</p><p>Prior to 2018, listing in Hong Kong also required equal rights for all shareholders. In 2018, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange introduced a reform that allowed technology companies and life science companies to adopt the US-style dual-class share structure. Since then, more and more Chinese companies have chosen to list in Hong Kong, or to list simultaneously in both Hong Kong and New York.</p><p>It's not that equal rights for all shareholders are bad. Everything has its advantages and disadvantages. Founders with limited shareholding and equal voting rights are required to be cautious about going public, as they may be sidelined or even kicked out of the decision-making level after going public. However, being cautious about going public may slow down the company's development and cause it to miss the golden period of development.</p><p>Listing in the United States offers a dual-class share option, which means that even if you hold less than 50% of the company's shares, even if you only hold 10% or even less, you can still maintain control over the company. While it makes it easier for companies to go public and raise funds, it can easily lead to the problem of \"insider control\". Since the actual controller of a company is not the largest shareholder, when the interests of the shareholders and the interests of the operators conflict, the actual controller is prone to abuse his position for personal gain, enrich his own pockets, or engage in risky business practices. In some countries, dual-class share structures are considered one of the root causes of corporate governance problems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c43b7c0037505392758b59f3788cc488\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>crisis of trust</b></p><p>The previous article basically explained why Chinese companies are more willing to list in the United States. There are various reasons, including regulatory reasons and business operations. Overall, it is a normal business behavior of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages.</p><p>However, after the escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict, the United States imposed a series of sanctions on Chinese companies, some of which were Chinese companies listed in the United States. This increases the risk of listing in the United States. Even if some listed companies are not sanctioned, the risks brought about by changes in international relations between the two countries are also increasing. In 2020, Luckin Coffee's financial fraud further exacerbated the crisis of trust in Chinese concept stocks.</p><p>The Trump administration seized the opportunity to sign the Foreign Company Accountability Act before the end of its term, threatening that if China fails to obtain audit working papers from the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) for three consecutive years, Chinese-listed companies will be delisted from the U.S. stock exchange.</p><p>On June 22, 2021, the U.S. Senate passed another proposal, proposing that the delisting date could be brought forward by a year.</p><p>The direct reason the United States is threatening to delist Chinese companies is to protect American investors from losses caused by accounting fraud similar to that of Luckin Coffee last year. To be honest, this actually seems to make a lot of sense. Financial fraud is a crime, not only in the United States, but we believe that the capital markets of any country must combat financial fraud.</p><p>But there are a few questions here.</p><p>First, China and the United States have been consulting on the issue of the audit working papers, but why have they suddenly turned against each other now?</p><p>In 2009, my country enacted a law requiring enterprises to \"store working papers and other files formed in China by securities companies and securities service institutions that provide related securities services during the process of issuing and listing securities overseas.\"</p><p>In 2013, my country and the PCAOB of the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation and provided the PCAOB with audit working papers of four companies.</p><p>From 2016 to 2019, the regulatory authorities of both sides have been exploring how to conduct effective inspections and have made some attempts at cooperation. When the relationship is good, there is room for discussion; when the relationship is bad, there is a tendency to turn against others.</p><p>Second, is providing accounting working papers an effective way to combat financial fraud?</p><p>The United States' securities market regulations have been constantly being upgraded. For example, in 2002, in response to the Enron financial fraud scandal, significant revisions were made to the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, resulting in the Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, or the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which made many new provisions in areas such as corporate governance, Accounting profession regulation, and securities market regulation. This is actually beneficial for both listed companies and investors, which is a good thing.</p><p>However, the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, was already able to review the audit drafts of public companies, but then accounting problems arose at WorldCom, Southern Healthcare, Freddie Mac, American International Group, and Lehman Brothers. Most serious accounting fraud cases are often discovered by professional short-selling firms using techniques such as \"private server undercover investigations\" to conduct on-site investigations of company business traffic. Auditing firms do not use these methods.</p><p>The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) may not be able to detect these financial frauds through audit working papers. In other words, audit drafts may help combat financial fraud, but they are not an essential method, nor are they always 100% effective.</p><p>Third, a key target of the Foreign Company Accountability Act is Chinese companies listed in the US, but this is not the first time the US has known that Chinese listed companies adopt the VIE structure. If the United States believes there are problems with the VIE structure, it can simply ban Chinese companies listed in the US.</p><p>When the two countries have friendly relations, audit working papers are not a very important issue. The two countries can resolve the issue through negotiation and cooperate in supervision because they trust each other. This mutual trust is gone now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e2b71cb10ca93f5741a9e9b49df382\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Plan ahead</b></p><p>We hope that Sino-US relations can return to friendship in the new competitive relationship. However, if the gap between the two countries widens, then Chinese companies listed in the US do need to be prepared for both scenarios.</p><p>For both China and the United States, the delisting of Chinese companies from the US market does not seem to be an unbearable price.</p><p>For the United States, although Chinese concept stocks fluctuate greatly, their overall performance outperforms most US-listed companies, and the losses caused by financial fraud by Chinese companies are far less than those of American companies like Enron and Lehman Brothers.</p><p>If Chinese concept stocks are delisted, American investors will lose a relatively good investment target. However, after delisting, Chinese concept stocks can be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the A-share market. If American investors remain optimistic about Chinese companies, they can continue to buy and invest in Hong Kong through the Qualified Foreign Investor Mechanism (QFII) or the Stock Connect mechanism.</p><p>For China, as a high-savings country and a net capital exporter, it is not necessary to list and raise funds in the United States. my country's own capital market is gradually improving, and the registration-based IPO system is being piloted on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. It is likely that it will be fully rolled out in the near future. In the future, the convenience of Chinese companies listing in China will be greatly improved. Although valuations may shrink when listing on the A-share or Hong Kong stock exchanges, this is not an unacceptable challenge for the country as a whole.</p><p>Therefore, if Chinese companies delist from the US market, it is not an unacceptable event for both countries; their fate will be more influenced by international relations and the course of history. At this point, what businesses should do is plan ahead and take preventative measures.</p><p>No one wants bad things to happen, but if they do, they shouldn't be caught off guard.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab6f6a5034baf0d08c9227da13ca9733","relate_stocks":{"513050":"中概互联网ETF易方达"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120859674","content_text":"文/贾铭\n7月23日，一份名为《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》的中办发文件在网络流传。《意见》包含，严禁教育培训机构“资本化”运作，学科类培训机构一律不得上市融资等措施，海外上市的教育类股票应声而跌。比如，新东方在港交所的股价一度“腰斩”（新东方S，23号收跌40.61%，26号再收跌47.02%；新东方在线23号和26号分别收跌28.07%、33.45%；新东方在美股收盘跌幅23号为54.22%），23号，高途在美股跌幅达63.26%，好未来跌幅更是超过70%。\n官方已经于7月24日晚正式公布该文件，多家媒体有全文转发，感兴趣的读者可以找来看。\n今天这篇文章，并不分析中办的40号文，而是想探讨两个问题。\n第一，为什么这么多中国企业选择在美上市？\n第二，考虑到中美关系、瑞幸造假、滴滴下架等事件，在海外上市的这些中概股，未来命运如何？\n主要原因\n中国企业在美国的证券交易所上市的热情，差不多超过其他任何非美国的企业，即使在中美关系明显遇冷之后，依然如此。\n2019年，有32家企业赴美上市，2020年为34家，2021年上半年，已完成赴美上市的企业有37家。据wind数据，截至2021年7月，共有286家中国企业在美国上市——包括那些注册在中国香港或者开曼群岛等离岸中心，但大部分收入和利润来自中国内地的企业——事实上，大部分在美国上市的中国企业，基本都采取了这种上市方式。\n2018年以来，美国在打压中国科技企业的同时，提高了对赴美上市中国企业的审计要求，中企赴美上市的整体环境并不佳，那为什么中国企业仍毅然选择赴美上市呢？\n众所周知的几个原因是：\n第一，美国的资本市场建设比较早，融资体系和法律法规相对来讲更加成熟和完善。从总体融资环境看，美国对于互联网公司、高科技公司普遍看好，同样的一只股票，在美国上市，相对容易获得更高的估值，募集更多的资金。\n第二，更重要的是，美国资本市场采取注册制，对于拟上市公司不设盈利门槛。只要你的公司业务高速增长，占据很大的市场份额，即便亏损也能上市。我国采取审核制，申请A股上市的必要条件是连续三年盈利。\n互联网企业成长很快，所以总是非常缺钱。有的互联网企业，或许仅仅创立几年，就成为了估值超过十亿的独角兽，这时候面临投资人变现的压力和进一步发展的压力，就要准备上市做大规模筹资了，但是多数企业这时候可能才刚刚开始盈利，甚至还没有盈利，所以达不到连续三年盈利的条件，也就无法在A股市场上市融资。要是等两三年后再去上市筹资，不仅可能错过最好的发展时机，融不到资，企业能不能活下去都成了未知数。所以，只能去国外。\n第三，我国的上市审批周期长短不定，遇到上市审批暂停，企业想上市，整个流程长的话可能要三四年。时间就是金钱，很多企业等不起。\n以上三个原因，尤其是第二和第三，应该是中国企业赴美上市最主要的两个原因。但除此之外，还有以下几个原因不应该被忽视。\n\n出身原因\n我们现在经常说，中国的互联网企业做的很好。我们又通常把2000年前后，称为中国的互联网元年。但我们不能忘记，在互联网发展初期，没有几个人能看得懂这种业态，所以这些企业不可能拿到银行贷款。\n其实不仅仅是互联网初创期，所有企业初创期，都很难拿到银行贷款。由于商业银行严格的贷款审批手续和天生的风险厌恶属性，它宁愿少赚点贷款利息，也更愿意把钱贷给四平八稳的企业。\n银行本来就不是给初创企业投资的机构，给初创企业投资，应该是天使投资人和风投机构干的事儿，而我国那时候没有什么风险投资（VC）和私募股权（PE）。这些互联网企业在国内找不到钱，但发展又需要钱，怎么办？只能引进境外资本。\n要知道，我们的改革开放早期，也是用境内的市场换境外的资本和技术。所以还是邓公说的好，管它黑猫白猫，能抓老鼠就是好猫。资本本是中性，无所谓好坏，如果只是用地域作为分类依据，当然是可以的。但如果要做价值判断，更重要的是要看这些资本被用来做的具体的事情，而不是这些资本的出身。\n所以，我国的很多互联网巨头（为了避免不必要的麻烦，这里就不举例了），在设立之初，就是中外合资企业。这又引出了另一个问题：VIE架构的合法性问题。\n可变利益实体架构（Variable Interest Entity），简称VIE架构，通常被称为“协议控制”，是指拟上市公司在境外注册的上市实体，与内地业务经营主体分离，由境外上市实体透过协议方式控制境内业务经营主体，并把收入和利润转移到境外公司。VIE架构又衍生出很多不同的形式，但本质是一样的，这里不展开。\n因为我国法律对境外资金在“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”的行业准入有严格限制，不允许境外资本直接投资电信、互联网相关企业。当然也不允许这些行业的公司直接在海外集资或者上市。所以，这些企业采取VIE架构绕开监管。\n监管当然知道这种形式，之所以没有完全禁绝，一方面是这种架构并不“明显违法”，另一方面当然也是一种监管智慧。\n但这种企业在境内上市的话，还是要严格按照上市的监管要求，那这种VIE架构的合法性就成了问题，所以不能直接境内上市。\n这就意味着，一部分互联网企业从诞生的那天起，根就是歪的。根不歪就活不下来，活下来了又留下了不好的出身——“缺钱-引进外资-变成合资企业-采取VIE架构-境内上市的合法性有问题-境外上市”。\n现在好多了，我国的多层次资本市场建设越来越完善，人民币风投和私募也多了，在国内找不到钱的问题，得到了很大的缓解。\n王小波在《沉默的大多数》中说，做价值判断太容易了，如果我们是一只公兔子，我们天然就知道大灰狼坏，母兔子好。但兔子不知道怎么背九九乘法表。搞清楚上面这个背景，就有点九九乘法表的意思，无论我们对互联网企业去境外上市做出何种价值评价——如何评价是我们的自由——但起码我们的评判是基于事情完整的来龙去脉做出来的。\n\n其他原因\n还有两个原因分别是，资本的自由流通和同股不同权的追求。\n如前所述，由于很多企业的资金来源包括国际私募基金和风险投资公司，而中国又实行外汇管制，在境内上市，风投资金获利退出会很麻烦，有汇兑风险，所以他们也有动力鼓励企业所有者在境外上市。有的企业所有者有做跨国企业的雄心，也愿意在美国上市，这既有利于拓展企业的知名度，又有利于企业募资和资产的全球布局，一举多得。\n又得啰嗦一点，私募和风投吃的就是高风险高收益这碗饭，只要他们能遵纪守法地赚钱，就不能说人家在企业上市后获利退出有什么不对。当然，如果违法乱纪，那必然是要依法追责的。\n有人可能会问，在香港上市，资本也可以自由流动啊。上市公司创业者与早期投资者可以轻松地将上市筹集的港元兑换成美元或其他任何货币。这就到了另一个原因，“同股同权”和“同股不同权”。\n在我国内地上市的公司要严格遵守同股同权的条例，即你拥有该公司多少股份，在重大事件投票时就拥有多少的投票权，这就是很多公司不想上市的原因，害怕上市之后拥有的股份不多，导致公司创始人在董事会说不上话甚至会被踢出局。这也是之前流行的“野蛮人”恶意收购的原因，只要别人持有比你更多的股份，哪怕你是创始人，也会被踢出局。\n在2018年以前，在香港上市，也是同股同权的要求。2018年，港交所推出了一项改革，允许科技企业和生命科学领域里的企业采用美国式的同股不同权的结构。此后，越来越多的中国企业选择在香港上市，或者在中国香港和美国纽约两地同时挂牌。\n不是说同股同权不好。凡事都是有利有弊。同股同权要求持股不多的创始人谨慎上市，因为上市后可能被架空甚至踢出决策层，但谨慎上市又可能拖慢企业发展的速度，错过黄金发展期。\n赴美上市提供了一个同股不同权的选项，这就意味着，即使持有企业小于50%的股权，哪怕只持有10%甚至更低，也可以保持对企业的控制权。虽然方便了企业上市融资，但这很容易导致“内部人控制”问题。由于企业的实际控制人并不是最大的股东，那股东利益与经营者利益存在冲突的时候，实控人就容易假公济私，中饱私囊，或者采取一些风险比较大的经营行为。在一些国家，同股不同权被认为是企业治理问题的根源之一。\n\n信任危机\n前文基本解释了中国企业为啥更愿意去美国上市，有各种原因，有监管制度上的，有企业经营上的，总体而言，是一种很正常的趋利避害的商业行为。\n但中美贸易冲突升级以后，美国接连制裁中国的企业，有一些就是在美上市的中国企业。这增大了在美上市的风险，已经上市的部分企业，即使没有被制裁，因两国国际关系变动而带来的风险也在变大。2020年，瑞幸财务造假，更加剧了中概股的信任危机。\n特朗普政府趁机在任期结束之前签署《外国公司问责法案》，威胁说，如果中国方面连续三年不能够让美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）获得审计工作底稿，中国的上市企业将会被美国证券交易所摘牌。\n2021年6月22日，美国参议院又通过了另一项提案，提出退市时间可以提前一年。\n美国威胁要让中国企业退市的直接理由是保护美国投资者免受类似于去年瑞幸咖啡那样的会计造假带来的损失。说实话，这看起来其实挺有道理。财务造假是犯罪，不仅美国，我们相信任何一个国家的资本市场都要打击财务造假。\n但这里有几个问题。\n第一，中美双方一直在就审计底稿的问题进行磋商，但为啥现在突然翻脸。\n2009年，我国出台法律，要求企业“在境外发行证券与上市过程中，提供相关证券服务的证券公司、证券服务机构在境内形成的工作底稿等档案应当存放在境内”。\n2013年，我国和美国的PCAOB签署了一份合作谅解备忘录，并向PCAOB提供了4家企业的审计工作底稿。\n2016年到2019年，双方监管部门也一直就如何来有效地检查，有过一些合作尝试。关系好的时候有商有量，关系不好的时候就有点翻脸不认人的意思。\n第二，提供会计底稿是不是打击财务造假的一种有效形式。\n美国的证券市场监管法规一直在不断升级，比如2002年针对安然公司财务造假事件对《1933年证券法》《1934年证券交易法》做出大幅修订，形成了《2002年上市公司会计改革和投资者保护法案》（Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002），简称《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》，在公司治理、会计职业监管、证券市场监管等方面作出了许多新的规定。这事实上既有利于保护上市公司，也有利于保护投资者，是好事儿。\n但《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》之后建立的美国上市公司会计监督委员会已经可以审阅上市公司的审计底稿了，可之后又出现了世通、南方保健、房地美、美国国际集团和雷曼兄弟的会计问题。而大多数比较严重的会计造假事件，往往是由专业的卖空机构，通过使用“私服暗访”实地调查公司业务流量等技巧手段发现问题的，审计公司不会使用这些手段。\n美国上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）不一定能通过审计工作底稿来发现这些财务造假。换言之，审计底稿或许有助于打击财务造假，但并不是一种必不可少的方式，也不总是百分百有效。\n第三，《外国公司问责法案》的重要目标就是中概股公司，但美国不是第一天知道中国上市公司采用VIE架构。如果美国认为VIE架构有问题，那直接禁止中概股上市即可。\n两国在关系友好的时候，审计底稿并不是一个很重要的问题，两国可以协商解决，合作监管，因为互相信任。现在这种互信没有了。\n\n未雨绸缪\n我们希望中美关系可以在新的竞争关系中复归友好。但如果两国的隔阂越来越大，那在美上市的中国企业，确实需要做好两手准备。\n对中美两国来讲，中国企业从美国市场退市，似乎都不是难以承受的代价。\n对美国来讲，尽管中概股的波动比较大，但中概股的整体表现优于大部分美国上市公司股票，中国企业财务造假带来的损失，也远小于安然、雷曼这些美国公司。\n如果中概股退市，美国投资者会失去一个比较好的投资标的。但中概股退市后可以去港股和A股上市，如果美国投资者依旧看好中国企业，可以继续在香港地区通过合格境外投资者机制（QFII）或者互联互通机制买进，进行投资。\n对中国来讲，我国是一个高储蓄国家和资本净出口国，并非一定要在美国上市募资。我国自己的资本市场也在逐渐完善，注册制也在科创板试点，很可能不久后的未来就会全面铺开，未来中国企业在国内上市的便利度会大幅度提升，虽然在A股或者港股上市，估值很可能有缩水，但这对整个国家来讲，并不是什么不可接受的挑战。\n所以，如果中国企业在美退市，对两国来讲并不是什么不可接受的事件，那它们的命运就更多地受国际关系和历史进程的影响。这时候，企业应该做的就是未雨绸缪，防患于未然。\n谁都不希望坏事发生，但如果发生，也不至于措手不及。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513050":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}