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BabyShark222
2021-07-26
Ok
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BabyShark222
2021-07-18
Ok
中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长
BabyShark222
2021-08-18
?
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BabyShark222
2021-08-17
Song song to jurong
中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益
BabyShark222
2021-07-17
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BabyShark222
2021-07-18
No
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BabyShark222
2021-08-07
Sin
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BabyShark222
2021-08-02
$amc$
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BabyShark222
2021-07-29
Singapore airline
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BabyShark222
2021-07-27
Go
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BabyShark222
2021-07-18
Ok
OPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面
BabyShark222
2021-07-29
Singapore air
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BabyShark222
2021-07-18
Ok
太强了!逾20家A股公司上修上半年业绩预期!
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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18:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益</title>\n<style 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18:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$amc$ 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19:03","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。</p>\n<p>除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。</p>\n<p>OPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。</p>\n<p>欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。</p>\n<p>除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。</p>\n<p>OPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。</p>\n<p>欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800811255,"gmtCreate":1627290274977,"gmtModify":1703486870991,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/800811255","repostId":"1181109009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979257,"gmtCreate":1626608906779,"gmtModify":1703762287535,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979257","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点:美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151231853?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。<b>往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此,<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,<b>在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,</b>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)<b>二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看,<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输</b>,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值:估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。<b>往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此,<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,<b>在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,</b>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)<b>二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看,<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输</b>,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值:估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期,标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此,从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位\n\n板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。\n往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降\n►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落\n\n过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。\n过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值:估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831860233,"gmtCreate":1629300692222,"gmtModify":1676529997711,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831860233","repostId":"1178125004","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833807914,"gmtCreate":1629213502038,"gmtModify":1676529969550,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Song song to jurong","listText":"Song song to jurong","text":"Song song to jurong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833807914","repostId":"1123143185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123143185","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629197708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123143185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 18:55","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123143185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易","content":"<p>8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中基协:基金管理人不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-17 18:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123143185","content_text":"8月17日讯,中基协发布《公开募集证券投资基金管理人及从业人员职业操守和道德规范指南》,自发布之日起实施。其中提出,基金管理人应当建立、健全关联交易、公平交易等各项制度,制定并完善关联方识别、关联交易价格确定等事项的标准和流程,不得向第三方输送利益,不得在不同资产组合之间输送利益。基金管理人应当公平对待所管理的不同资产组合,通过集中交易、公平交易等制度,确保不同资产组合获得平等的投资、交易机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179150935,"gmtCreate":1626495402127,"gmtModify":1703761141838,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179150935","repostId":"1130243635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979895,"gmtCreate":1626608863817,"gmtModify":1703762287213,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979895","repostId":"1172207687","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891948208,"gmtCreate":1628323501004,"gmtModify":1703505090143,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sin","listText":"Sin","text":"Sin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891948208","repostId":"1136593672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804922385,"gmtCreate":1627917273447,"gmtModify":1703497915673,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$amc$ ","listText":"$amc$ ","text":"$amc$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804922385","repostId":"1133915369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453050,"gmtCreate":1627529817770,"gmtModify":1703491783483,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singapore airline","listText":"Singapore airline","text":"Singapore airline","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801453050","repostId":"1195922259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809410569,"gmtCreate":1627386333851,"gmtModify":1703488873060,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809410569","repostId":"1120859674","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173979123,"gmtCreate":1626608790262,"gmtModify":1703762286891,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173979123","repostId":"1160796593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160796593","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626606185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160796593?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 19:03","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"OPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160796593","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和","content":"<p>7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。</p>\n<p>除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。</p>\n<p>OPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。</p>\n<p>欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOPEC+同意增产石油,结束当前的僵持局面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 19:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。</p>\n<p>OPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。</p>\n<p>除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。</p>\n<p>OPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。</p>\n<p>欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。</p>\n<p>欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160796593","content_text":"7月18日,在沙特和阿联酋解决了一项阻碍协议达成的争端后,欧佩克及其盟友同意逐步向市场增加石油供应。与会代表表示,该组织将每月增产至多40万桶/日,直到所有闲置的产能都恢复,根据协议,阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特从2022年5月起将获得更高的产量配额。协议将缓解迫在眉睫的供应紧张,并降低油价上涨的风险。这也为一场令交易员不安的僵局画上了句号。\nOPEC+同意阿联酋的原油减产新基线为350万桶/日,将于2022年5月开始生效。\n除了阿联酋,其他OPEC+成员也有望获得新的减产基准,伊拉克和科威特的产量基线分别提高15万桶/天。\n欧佩克+同意从2022年5月开始,将沙特和俄罗斯的基准石油产量从之前的1100万桶/日调整为1150万桶/日。\nOPEC+还同意从8月起进一步放宽减产,新的原油减产基准线将于2022年5月生效。\n欧佩克+已经就原油生产问题达成协议,下一次欧佩克+会议将在9月21日举行,同意将减产协议延长至2022年底。\n欧佩克草案声明显示,欧佩克+计划在2022年9月之前,在市场条件允许的情况下,全面取消580万桶/日的减产。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801453829,"gmtCreate":1627529842261,"gmtModify":1703491784290,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singapore 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15:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"太强了!逾20家A股公司上修上半年业绩预期!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133530572","media":"上海证券报","summary":"要么主业好,要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计,6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外","content":"<div>\n<p>要么主业好,要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计,6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外,东鹏特饮、气派科技、电气风电、纳微科技等“股市新兵”则公告称,最新预计半年度业绩将高于招股书披露时预告的半年报业绩。\n\n从公告来看,处于化工、钢铁、锂产业链等高景气度赛道,主业表现超预期成为多数公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>太强了!逾20家A股公司上修上半年业绩预期!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n太强了!逾20家A股公司上修上半年业绩预期!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-18 15:12 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag><strong>上海证券报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>要么主业好,要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计,6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外,东鹏特饮、气派科技、电气风电、纳微科技等“股市新兵”则公告称,最新预计半年度业绩将高于招股书披露时预告的半年报业绩。\n\n从公告来看,处于化工、钢铁、锂产业链等高景气度赛道,主业表现超预期成为多数公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DNtGU0-Cuwz2GXAhrrx7Ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133530572","content_text":"要么主业好,要么投资强。据上证报资讯统计,6月份至今已有立昂微、未名医药、合肥城建、雪迪龙、天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、鸿博股份、藏格控股、浩物股份、雪峰科技等逾20家A股公司上修了今年半年报预增幅度。\n此外,东鹏特饮、气派科技、电气风电、纳微科技等“股市新兵”则公告称,最新预计半年度业绩将高于招股书披露时预告的半年报业绩。\n\n从公告来看,处于化工、钢铁、锂产业链等高景气度赛道,主业表现超预期成为多数公司上修业绩的主因。另外,旅游等去年受疫情影响较大的企业,因在今年逐步恢复,带动企业扭亏为盈。柘中股份、明牌珠宝等则因股权投资有所斩获,也大幅上修业绩预告。\n行业高景气\n锂产业链、化工等表现抢眼\n7月14日晚,赣锋锂业、天齐锂业两大锂产业链公司同时上修半年报预增幅度。\n赣锋锂业从此前预盈8亿元至12亿元,上修至预盈13亿元至16亿元,同比大增730.75%至922.46%。天齐锂业则从此前预计亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元,调整为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元,同比扭亏为盈。\n\n 图片来源:东方财富\n对于上半年业绩“超预期”的原因,拥有五大类逾40种锂化合物及金属锂产品生产能力的赣锋锂业在公告中直言“产品售价超预期”。\n今年以来,得益于公司产品产销两旺,且销售均价同比上涨,赣锋锂业净利润增长迅速。第一季度,公司实现营收16.07亿元,同比增长48.94%;实现净利润4.76亿元,同比大增6046.30%。得益于产品售价超预期,且公司持有的Pilbara等金融资产公允价值增长,赣锋锂业上修半年度业绩至预盈13亿元至16亿元。\n再看天齐锂业,作为以锂为核心的新能源材料企业,公司拥有合计约4.48万吨/年的锂化工产品产能。此外,还有4.8万吨/年氢氧化锂、2万吨/年电池级碳酸锂的在建项目,中期锂化工产品规划产能合计超过11万吨/年。\n2021年第一季度,天齐锂业实现营收9.04亿元,同比微降6.63%。彼时,天齐锂业在一季报中表示,在不考虑因SQM股价变动对领式期权公允价值波动等,无法合理预计的非经营性活动带来的影响背景下,预计上半年将亏损1.3亿元至2.5亿元。\n最新的半年度业绩预告修正公告显示,因SQM股价变动,公司持有的SQM的B类股领式期权业务产生的公允价值变动收益较预计增加,且公司主要锂化合物产品销量和销售均价预计增长,公司上修上半年净利润为预盈7800万元至1.16亿元,同比扭亏为盈。\n\n图片来源:国联证券研报\n“公司所处行业细分领域市场景气度不断提升,市场需求旺盛,公司销售订单饱满,产品供不应求,公司营收同比稳步增长;衢州硅片基地产能大幅释放,综合规模效益凸显。”立昂微在业绩预增公告中直言。\n2021年一季度立昂微实现营收4.62亿元,同比增长49.21%;实现净利润7579.45万元,同比增长133.38%。\n立昂微曾在一季报中预计上半年净利润将同比增长100%以上。而公司半年度业绩预告显示,预计上半年将实现净利润2.03亿元至2.15亿元,同比增长166.37至182.11%。\n在行业景气度持续提升背景下,金浦钛业、海洋王、四川美丰、精功科技等亦上修了半年度业绩预期。金浦钛业从预盈8660.29万元至9091.15万元,修正为预盈1.10亿元至1.15亿元。\n公司称,钛白粉市场持续回暖,钛白粉销售价格较上年同期涨幅较多;公司主营产品钛白粉量价齐升,推动公司净利润同比涨幅较多。而受益于专业领域LED等新光源对传统光源的替代,以及专业市场对节能降耗需求的日益增长等,海洋王上修上半年净利润为8549.52万元至9689.45万元,同比增长50%至70%。\n主营尿素、复合肥、氮氧化物还原剂等化工产品制造与销售的四川美丰表示,行业景气度持续提升下,公司部分主营产品市场价格较上年同期出现较大增长,盈利水平同比增幅明显。据此,公司将上半年业绩从预盈6500万元至8500万元,修正为预盈1.85亿元至2.15亿元,同比增长355.71%至429.61%。\n受益于公司碳纤维生产线产品交付进程的提速,精功科技亦将上半年净利润从预盈3500万元至5000万元,修正为预盈6500万元至7500万元,同比增长774.82%至909.41%。\n此外,江苏索普、南钢股份均曾在披露一季报时预计,上半年净利润将同比增长50%以上。而得益于公司主要产品醋酸及衍生品价格持续上涨,江苏索普业绩大幅上升,上半年预计实现净利润14.8亿元至15.3亿元,同比大增173倍至179倍;受益于今年以来钢材市场产销两旺,盈利明显好转,南钢股份上半年预计实现净利润约22.61亿元,同比增长约102.67%。\n投资“超预期”\n柘中股份、明牌珠宝等收获丰\n与前述企业不同,柘中股份、明牌珠宝上半年业绩预期上调得益于公司股权投资有所斩获。\n柘中股份通过私募股权基金参与的方式,对科技、医疗、半导体、消费、新能源、新材料、节能环保、高端装备、新能源汽车、TMT等领域多家高科技企业进行了股权投资。\n\n图片来源:公司公告\n上半年,柘中股份参与投资设立的苏民投君信(上海)产业升级与科技创新股权投资合伙企业(有限合伙)所投资的皓元医药、力芯微于6月在科创板上市。按照上述公司6月30日收盘市值测算,预计对公司本报告期损益影响金额较前期业绩预告出现大幅度增加。\n据此,柘中股份将上半年业绩从预盈6000万元至8000万元,修正为预盈2亿元至2.3亿元,同比增长82倍至94倍。其中,非经常性损益预计1.4亿元至1.8亿元。\n同样因投资而“赚得盆满钵满”的还有明牌珠宝,一季报时公司曾预计上半年实现净利润3500万元至5000万元。7月1日,明牌珠宝上修上半年业绩至预盈3.5亿元至4亿元,同比增长23倍至27倍,主要由于非经常性损益项目。\n\n图片来源:公司公告\n公告显示,明牌珠宝对瑞丰银行投资按公允价值变动计入当期损益核算,影响金额约3.43亿元。据悉,明牌珠宝全资子公司明牌卡利罗,持有瑞丰银行约5863.84万股股份,瑞丰银行于今年6月25日上市。\n此外,焦点科技也将上半年业绩从预盈9000万元至1.25亿元,修正为预盈1.15亿元至1.35亿元,同比增长141.15%至183.09%。业绩增长原因方面,除营业总收入约7.1亿元,同比预增约31%外,焦点科技上半年通过集中竞价的方式累计出售润和软件452.4万股,扣税后为公司带来净利润约2251.70万元。\n藏格控股从预盈3亿元至3.8亿元,调整为预盈3.9亿元至4.3亿元,同比增长374.91% 至403.11%。业绩增长原因方面,除公司产品碳酸锂量价齐升及氯化钾售价提升,增厚营收净利外,公司长期股权投资确认投资收益2.1亿元(包含西藏巨龙铜业计提担保预期信用损失转回)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}