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2023-11-14

$京东方精电(00710)$

2023-03-30

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2023-03-15

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美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？

2023-03-14

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开盘 | 美股集体低开，第一共和银行暴跌67%

2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

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2023-03-14

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比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高

2023-03-14

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2023-03-13

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2023-01-05

$创新科技(C76.SI)$ Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67

2023-01-01

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Li Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record

2022-12-30

$工商银行(01398)$

2022-12-05

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2022-11-21

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Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation

2022-11-17

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

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10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185555153","media":"泽平宏观","summary":"美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对硅谷银行的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：</p><blockquote>1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>。</blockquote><blockquote>2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。</blockquote><blockquote>3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。</blockquote><blockquote>4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。</blockquote><p><b>1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级</b></p><p><b>针对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。</b></p><p>具体来看：</p><p><b>1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。</b>截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。</p><p><b>但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。</b></p><p>举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f73556cb9b98de09bec3bbc0f7200b57\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。</b>抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。<b>这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。</b></p><p><b>在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。</b></p><p><b>2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机</b></p><p><b>美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。</b></p><p><b>美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。</b>2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。</p><p><b>银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。</b>在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。</p><p><b>2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。</b>截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。</p><p><b>从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。</b></p><p><b>美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbdcfb5edabd0bdc3b8c18e9e2ec9695\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？</b></p><p><b>美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。</b></p><p><b>事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。</b></p><p>历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。</p><p><b>货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。</b></p><p>疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。</p><p><b>这背后是美元霸权。</b>美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。</p><p><b>美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。</b>对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，<b>向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。</b></p><p><b>而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。</b></p><p><b>当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储为硅谷银行买单：能否防止金融危机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/49\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/947583bee22e443aa795464217837990);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">泽平宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-14 10:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：</p><blockquote>1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>。</blockquote><blockquote>2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。</blockquote><blockquote>3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。</blockquote><blockquote>4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。</blockquote><p><b>1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级</b></p><p><b>针对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。</b></p><p>具体来看：</p><p><b>1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。</b>截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。</p><p><b>但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。</b></p><p>举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f73556cb9b98de09bec3bbc0f7200b57\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。</b>抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。<b>这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。</b></p><p><b>在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。</b></p><p><b>2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机</b></p><p><b>美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。</b></p><p><b>美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。</b>2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。</p><p><b>银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。</b>在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。</p><p><b>2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。</b>截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。</p><p><b>从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。</b></p><p><b>美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbdcfb5edabd0bdc3b8c18e9e2ec9695\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？</b></p><p><b>美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。</b></p><p><b>事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。</b></p><p>历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。</p><p><b>货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。</b></p><p>疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。</p><p><b>这背后是美元霸权。</b>美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。</p><p><b>美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。</b>对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，<b>向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。</b></p><p><b>而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。</b></p><p><b>当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。</b></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185555153","content_text":"美国时间2023年3月12日晚，美国财政部、美联储和联邦存款保险公司联合发表声明：1、允许联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）以全额保护所有存款人的方式完成对硅谷银行的清算。存款人将从3月13日开始获得他们的全额资金，硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失。同样应用于今天关闭的纽约市Signature Bank。2、相对应的，股东和部分次级债权(unsecured)拥有人则无法获得保护，高级管理人员也已经被撤职。3、美联储宣布，将向符合条件的存款机构提供额外资金。美联储将创建新的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），向银行、储蓄协会、信用合作社和在美国的国外银行分行等存款机构提供最长为一年的贷款。4、财政部将从外汇稳定基金中提供高达250亿美元的资金支持BTFP。1、美国财政部、美联储、联邦存款保险公司联合出手，为硅谷银行储户兜底，遏制危机升级针对美国银行风险事件，美国应对措施：1）联邦存款保险公司（FDIC)释放存款保险基金（DIF），为储户兜底；2）推出银行期限资金计划（BTFP），为银行提供流动性支持。短期看，两项措施或较有效的解决初现苗头的美国银行挤兑潮，同时缓和市场情绪。具体来看：1）针对已经被托管的银行，除开将其资产变卖以筹措资金外，其余的资金缺口将通过FDIC的存款保险基金（DIF）补齐，保证了储户的资产。截至2022年底，FDIC共有保费1288亿美元。但也会带来一定的风险。如果未来FDIC需要获得更多的保费收入，可能会促使银行系统储备更多的现金及其等价物，银行中期来看面临隐性流动性问题。举例来说，DIF保费有三个补充的渠道，第一是收取一次性特别保费，第二是提前收取保费，第三个是向财政部借款。2009年6月，FDIC收取了特别保费共计55亿美元，对整体银行业流动性带来了一定压力；2009年12月，FDIC收取了提前保费共计45.7亿美元，进一步限制了在危机情形下银行的信贷能力。2）美联储新推出的银行期限资金计划（BTFP），通过高质量证券抵押贴现的方式向银行的准备金账户注入流动性。抵押品主要以美债、机构债和抵押贷款支持证券等资产为主；且这些资产的抵押价值将以面值计算，利率为OIS + 10bp；不设置单一机构使用的上限，且允许机构提前还款。这意味着，相较于贴现窗口（Discount Window）和常规回购工具（Standing Repo Facility），向BTFP借款可以获得更多的现金流动性。在当前金融环境收紧和流动性压力增加的时期，BTFP缓解金融机构在市场上折价出售这些高质量证券回升流动性的压力。同时，美联储的资产端收到抵押的证券，负债端增加银行等金融机构的准备金，整个资产负债表也会再次小幅扩张。2、厨房里不止一只蟑螂：美国面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机美国硅谷银行、Signature银行、以及第一共和银行连续暴雷。这仅仅是美国银行业风险的冰山一角，美联储面临的是整个银行业危机和流动性危机。美联储过去两年直升机撒钱。2020年3月美联储推出无限量量化宽松，随后承诺将长时间维持0利率水平。截至2022年3月美联储宣布加息时，其资产负债表累计增长110%，达到9万亿峰值。其中准备金、财政部一般账户以及衡量剩余流动性的隔夜逆回购用量分别增长135%、57%以及712%。银行在流动性过剩的环境下大量购入美国国债。在2020年全球大放水的环境下，银行贷款需求疲软，银行资金无处可去。2019年第四季度至2022年第四季度期间，美国银行业存款增加了超过5万亿美元，其中仅14%被用于贷款。同时，隔夜逆回购账户、货币市场基金和T-Bills等收益较低。现金存入美联储隔夜逆回购账户只能获得约5bp-15bp的年化收益，货币市场基金与T-Bills也仅有不到20bp的年化收益。截至2022年3月15日美联储宣布加息前，美国商业银行持有国债约4.6万亿美元，较量化宽松开始前增加53%。2022年3月，美联储开启激进加息，银行资产端缩水、负债端储蓄流出，陷入流动性紧张。截至2023年3月，美联储累计加息450个基点，导致美债收益率快速飙升。此前在流动性宽松背景下大量购买的美债资产价格出现大幅下跌，被归类为可出售资产（AFS）的美国国债开始出现浮亏。根据FDIC数据，截至2022年第四季度，美国银行系统内未实现损失约为6200亿美元，其中可售国债及证券约为2795亿美元。从目前美联储公布的工具以及解决方案来看，仅对银行资产端起到了托底的作用，但对负债端储蓄流出的风险没有进行有效抑制。美联储要打扫所有战场，能否防止金融危机，取决于美联储能否应对及时、阻止传染链条、以及获取市场信任。3、美联储宣称不必纳税人负担，究竟谁买单？美国财长耶伦表示“硅谷银行的清算不会由纳税人承担任何损失”，从表象上确实如此：无论是救助被托管银行的FDIC保费收入，还是对流动性进行补充的BTFP都不直接来自于政府支出。事实是，所有的债务重组多数是债务货币化，最终都由超发货币进而稀释纳税人承担。历史经验表明，硅谷银行等被托管银行进行债务重组和处置的过程往往需要货币化，即获得财政部、美联储、FDIC为其提供的额外资本。属于变相超发货币的行为。货币超发带来高通胀，稀释居民购买力。同时，为了抑制高通胀，美国加息，带来强美元周期，全球买单。疫情以来，美联储的资产负债表翻了近三倍，最高达到了超9万亿美元，导致了美国通胀高企、激进加息、强美元周期。高通胀严重损害了美国居民部门的购买力。同时，美国在收割全球非美经济体、压制非美经济体的经济增长动能。这背后是美元霸权。美国经济占世界经济22%左右，贸易量占全球贸易13%左右，但以美元计价的交易占了50%，美元外汇储备占了60%，以美元计价的跨境信贷占了50%。美元霸权存在深层次问题，给美国自身和外围国家均施加桎梏，短期难以撼动，但长期难以维系。对内，低储蓄和高消费模式下，美国深受贸易逆差、产业空心化困扰，巨额债务和财政赤字攀升，收入差距拉大。对外，美国控制全球跨境支付系统，频繁实施金融制裁，冻结资产，利用对国际组织的表决权，限制他国的融资渠道和融资条件，向全世界征收铸币税，输出通胀使债务贬值，稀释各国积累的外汇储备，其他经济体被迫承受输入性通货膨胀、债权贬值和金融波动。而现在硅谷银行的暴雷正是对其金融业和新贵资本的反噬，以及对美联储无限量QE的清算。当前中国正处于复苏的通道，打铁还得自身硬，中国当务之急是发展经济，全力拼经济。发展是防风险最好的根基。如果能够启动以新基建新能源领先的扩大内需经济复苏计划，有望化危为机，就像2009年一样，如果应对有力，2023年中国经济有望重新引领全球。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537675,"gmtCreate":1678747128397,"gmtModify":1678747132476,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537675","repostId":"1110580899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110580899","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678714241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110580899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘 | 美股集体低开，第一共和银行暴跌67%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110580899","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"道指跌约280点，纳指跌0.85%，标普500指数跌超1%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月13日周一，美股开盘，道指跌约280点，纳指跌0.85%，标普500指数跌超1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d411f2c0bfc38704d43eaab5d0c08ef\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>银行股重挫，第一共和银行跌67%，阿莱恩斯西部银行跌75%，PacWest Bancorp盘初触发熔断，此前跌约35%，瑞士信贷跌超8%，美国合众银行跌8.7%，美国银行、富国银行跌超7%，花旗集团跌超6%，瑞银、巴克莱跌近5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7c20aecde1af34087b632df98a53fd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉盘初下挫，一度跌超5%。分析师称特斯拉也可能成为硅谷银行暴雷的受害者。</p><p>生物技术公司Seagen涨超15%，辉瑞拟以229美元/股的价格现金收购该公司。</p><p>生物制药公司Provention Bio暴涨超240%，最高触及24.09美元。消息面上，赛诺菲将以每股25美元现金收购该公司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c27c3227e67bb03f87d75e000a4a41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，理想推出保价政策，自定购日起90天内，若所购车型官方售价有降价情形，理想汽车将主动返还差价。</p><p>小鹏汽车跌超3%，蔚来跌超5%。</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴跌0.86%，京东跌1.88%，拼多多涨0.4%，百度涨0.23%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘 | 美股集体低开，第一共和银行暴跌67%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘 | 美股集体低开，第一共和银行暴跌67%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-13 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月13日周一，美股开盘，道指跌约280点，纳指跌0.85%，标普500指数跌超1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d411f2c0bfc38704d43eaab5d0c08ef\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>银行股重挫，第一共和银行跌67%，阿莱恩斯西部银行跌75%，PacWest Bancorp盘初触发熔断，此前跌约35%，瑞士信贷跌超8%，美国合众银行跌8.7%，美国银行、富国银行跌超7%，花旗集团跌超6%，瑞银、巴克莱跌近5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea7c20aecde1af34087b632df98a53fd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉盘初下挫，一度跌超5%。分析师称特斯拉也可能成为硅谷银行暴雷的受害者。</p><p>生物技术公司Seagen涨超15%，辉瑞拟以229美元/股的价格现金收购该公司。</p><p>生物制药公司Provention Bio暴涨超240%，最高触及24.09美元。消息面上，赛诺菲将以每股25美元现金收购该公司。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c27c3227e67bb03f87d75e000a4a41\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，理想推出保价政策，自定购日起90天内，若所购车型官方售价有降价情形，理想汽车将主动返还差价。</p><p>小鹏汽车跌超3%，蔚来跌超5%。</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴跌0.86%，京东跌1.88%，拼多多涨0.4%，百度涨0.23%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110580899","content_text":"3月13日周一，美股开盘，道指跌约280点，纳指跌0.85%，标普500指数跌超1%。银行股重挫，第一共和银行跌67%，阿莱恩斯西部银行跌75%，PacWest Bancorp盘初触发熔断，此前跌约35%，瑞士信贷跌超8%，美国合众银行跌8.7%，美国银行、富国银行跌超7%，花旗集团跌超6%，瑞银、巴克莱跌近5%。特斯拉盘初下挫，一度跌超5%。分析师称特斯拉也可能成为硅谷银行暴雷的受害者。生物技术公司Seagen涨超15%，辉瑞拟以229美元/股的价格现金收购该公司。生物制药公司Provention Bio暴涨超240%，最高触及24.09美元。消息面上，赛诺菲将以每股25美元现金收购该公司。理想汽车涨超2%，理想推出保价政策，自定购日起90天内，若所购车型官方售价有降价情形，理想汽车将主动返还差价。小鹏汽车跌超3%，蔚来跌超5%。热门中概股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴跌0.86%，京东跌1.88%，拼多多涨0.4%，百度涨0.23%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537861,"gmtCreate":1678747112454,"gmtModify":1678747115892,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537861","repostId":"2319429067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537192,"gmtCreate":1678747075616,"gmtModify":1678747079650,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537192","repostId":"1145863607","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537389,"gmtCreate":1678747058241,"gmtModify":1678747061592,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537389","repostId":"1175929938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175929938","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678717786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175929938?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 22:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175929938","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Marathon Digital涨超15%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高，Marathon Digital涨超15%，Riot Blockchain涨超13%，MicroStrategy涨近11%，Coinbase涨超7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6387a9cc927c43587042941bb88cf4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-13 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高，Marathon Digital涨超15%，Riot Blockchain涨超13%，MicroStrategy涨近11%，Coinbase涨超7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa6387a9cc927c43587042941bb88cf4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414360f2ef7b5c785cb936b4a9b53a44","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","MSTR":"MicroStrategy Incorporated","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175929938","content_text":"比特币突破23000美元，美股区块链概念股走高，Marathon Digital涨超15%，Riot Blockchain涨超13%，MicroStrategy涨近11%，Coinbase涨超7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537911,"gmtCreate":1678747044234,"gmtModify":1678747048124,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537911","repostId":"1161620075","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":627725630,"gmtCreate":1678706193521,"gmtModify":1678706193521,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6597593524","listText":"6597593524","text":"6597593524","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627725630","repostId":"1121669256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959942070,"gmtCreate":1672886015590,"gmtModify":1676538753627,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C76.SI\">$创新科技(C76.SI)$&nbsp;</a> Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C76.SI\">$创新科技(C76.SI)$&nbsp;</a> Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","text":"$创新科技(C76.SI)$ Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959942070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550998686387787","authorId":"3550998686387787","name":"Soyabean89","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb77581e98e9ecdbe378a1373a31b0e9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage","text":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage","html":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927556855,"gmtCreate":1672541526577,"gmtModify":1676538702936,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927556855","repostId":"1104497166","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104497166","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672539183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104497166?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-01 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104497166","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving anoth","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.</p><p>“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.</p><p>As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-01 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.</p><p>“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.</p><p>As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104497166","content_text":"Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927900282,"gmtCreate":1672363241246,"gmtModify":1676538678743,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01398\">$工商银行(01398)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01398\">$工商银行(01398)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$工商银行(01398)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c799be99a4eb50d7458fc681848c89de","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927900282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964745677,"gmtCreate":1670215155799,"gmtModify":1676538322451,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964745677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961517707,"gmtCreate":1668995239909,"gmtModify":1676538136066,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961517707","repostId":"2284033039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284033039","pubTimestamp":1668934033,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2284033039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-20 16:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284033039","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as in","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflation</li><li>Recent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive</li></ul><p>(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.</p><p>Yet no such belief prevails among the big money managers, who are betting that an economic downturn riddled with still-hot price pressures will define trading next year.</p><p>With a closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve sending fresh recession signals, stagflation is the consensus viewpoint among a whopping 92% of respondents in Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund-manager survey.</p><p>At the same time, Citigroup Inc. is painting a scenario of the “Powell Push” in which the Fed will be compelled to hike even if growth plunges, while BlackRock Inc. sees no prospect of a soft landing either in the US or Europe.</p><p>The bearish stance comes even as recent data on employment as well as consumer and producer prices -- combined with decent corporate earnings -- suggest the US central bank may actually succeed in its high-wire mission to ramp up borrowing costs without crashing the business cycle.</p><p>Yet for now, the professional investing class will need to see more conclusive evidence of a benign shift in the economic trajectory before materially changing their defensive positioning across the beaten-up world of stocks and bonds.</p><p>“Central banks will overtighten and push economies into moderate recession, but will stop hiking – before they have done enough to get inflation all the way down to target – as the damage from rate hikes becomes clearer,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef24c09069f86b3bb032bd4713e42f4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Li sees a US growth slowdown, earnings downgrades and elevated price pressures, justifying the firm’s underweights in developed-market equities and bonds, though it’s ready to put some cash back into corporate credit. Her stance is backed by investors at Bank of America, who overwhelmingly see stagflation on the horizon. The firm’s latest survey shows they’re historically underweight equities -- with tech-share positioning the lowest since 2006 -- and overweight cash.</p><p>The pessimism contrasts with a bout of ebullience sparked by last week’s US inflation report suggesting prices pressures may be peaking. That’s intensifying the debate about whether the Fed has room to moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes.</p><p>The latter was summarily dismissed by a parade of monetary officials this week. Among the most hawkish, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least to 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. That came after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in hiking cycle was “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George warned the Fed could find it increasingly difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6d6256d1c4799743f4357a5d675147\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As rate hikes spark bear markets in stocks and bonds, the Fed has gone from a friend in the bull times to a newfound foe. And no dovish policy pivot looks likely anytime soon. Citi, for one, is touting the idea of the “Powell Push,” with the Jerome Powell-led central bank forced into growth-sapping rate hikes on still-raging inflation ahead.</p><p>“We classify the environment as stagflationary,” according to Citi strategist Alex Saunders. He recommends selling US equities and credit, and buying commodities and bonds in a Powell Push scenario.</p><p>Invesco is also treading carefully, tilting exposure to defensive equities with overweight bets in Treasuries and US investment-grade credit.</p><p>“A signal to become more ‘risk on’ would be signs the Fed is getting close to ‘pausing’ rate hikes,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>Even <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>’s Andrew Sheets -- who holds a minority view that core inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 -- isn’t ready to go all risk-on yet given the prospect of an economic slowdown. Still, he cites the mid-90s as a reason for optimism. Back then, an era marked by elevated inflation with interest rates soaring, equities and Treasuries eventually managed to pull off big gains.</p><p>“Bears say soft landings are rare. But they happen,” Sheets wrote in his outlook for the next year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 16:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284033039","content_text":"BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.Yet no such belief prevails among the big money managers, who are betting that an economic downturn riddled with still-hot price pressures will define trading next year.With a closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve sending fresh recession signals, stagflation is the consensus viewpoint among a whopping 92% of respondents in Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund-manager survey.At the same time, Citigroup Inc. is painting a scenario of the “Powell Push” in which the Fed will be compelled to hike even if growth plunges, while BlackRock Inc. sees no prospect of a soft landing either in the US or Europe.The bearish stance comes even as recent data on employment as well as consumer and producer prices -- combined with decent corporate earnings -- suggest the US central bank may actually succeed in its high-wire mission to ramp up borrowing costs without crashing the business cycle.Yet for now, the professional investing class will need to see more conclusive evidence of a benign shift in the economic trajectory before materially changing their defensive positioning across the beaten-up world of stocks and bonds.“Central banks will overtighten and push economies into moderate recession, but will stop hiking – before they have done enough to get inflation all the way down to target – as the damage from rate hikes becomes clearer,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.Li sees a US growth slowdown, earnings downgrades and elevated price pressures, justifying the firm’s underweights in developed-market equities and bonds, though it’s ready to put some cash back into corporate credit. Her stance is backed by investors at Bank of America, who overwhelmingly see stagflation on the horizon. The firm’s latest survey shows they’re historically underweight equities -- with tech-share positioning the lowest since 2006 -- and overweight cash.The pessimism contrasts with a bout of ebullience sparked by last week’s US inflation report suggesting prices pressures may be peaking. That’s intensifying the debate about whether the Fed has room to moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes.The latter was summarily dismissed by a parade of monetary officials this week. Among the most hawkish, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least to 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. That came after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in hiking cycle was “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George warned the Fed could find it increasingly difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession.As rate hikes spark bear markets in stocks and bonds, the Fed has gone from a friend in the bull times to a newfound foe. And no dovish policy pivot looks likely anytime soon. Citi, for one, is touting the idea of the “Powell Push,” with the Jerome Powell-led central bank forced into growth-sapping rate hikes on still-raging inflation ahead.“We classify the environment as stagflationary,” according to Citi strategist Alex Saunders. He recommends selling US equities and credit, and buying commodities and bonds in a Powell Push scenario.Invesco is also treading carefully, tilting exposure to defensive equities with overweight bets in Treasuries and US investment-grade credit.“A signal to become more ‘risk on’ would be signs the Fed is getting close to ‘pausing’ rate hikes,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.Even Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets -- who holds a minority view that core inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 -- isn’t ready to go all risk-on yet given the prospect of an economic slowdown. Still, he cites the mid-90s as a reason for optimism. Back then, an era marked by elevated inflation with interest rates soaring, equities and Treasuries eventually managed to pull off big gains.“Bears say soft landings are rare. But they happen,” Sheets wrote in his outlook for the next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963253487,"gmtCreate":1668698199650,"gmtModify":1676538099169,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0be4ea446221b3593ffe8a48b9b9e17c","width":"1125","height":"2356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963253487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9927556855,"gmtCreate":1672541526577,"gmtModify":1676538702936,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927556855","repostId":"1104497166","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104497166","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672539183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104497166?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-01 10:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104497166","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving anoth","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.</p><p>“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.</p><p>As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Delivered 21,233 Vehicles in December 2022, Achieving Another Monthly Delivery Record\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-01 10:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.</p><p>“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.</p><p>As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104497166","content_text":"Li Auto today announced that the Company delivered 21,233 vehicles in December 2022, achieving another monthly delivery record and representing an increase of 50.7% year over year. This brought the Company’s fourth quarter deliveries to 46,319, up 31.5% year over year. Total deliveries in 2022 increased by 47.2% year over year to 133,246. The cumulative deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 257,334 as of the end of December.“We set another monthly record in December with 21,233 deliveries and became the fastest emerging new energy automaker in China to surpass the 20,000 monthly delivery mark. With December deliveries for Li L9 and Li L8 both exceeding 10,000, the two models have solidified our market position in the RMB300,000 to RMB500,000 price segment. We would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to all our users’ families for their trust and support. In 2023, we will continue to bring our users safer, more convenient, and more refined products and services. We look forward to growing with more families in the new year, creating a mobile home and creating happiness,” commented Yanan Shen, co-founder of Li Auto.As of December 31, 2022, the Company had 288 retail stores in 121 cities, as well as 318 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 223 cities.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9959942070,"gmtCreate":1672886015590,"gmtModify":1676538753627,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C76.SI\">$创新科技(C76.SI)$&nbsp;</a> Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C76.SI\">$创新科技(C76.SI)$&nbsp;</a> Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","text":"$创新科技(C76.SI)$ Creative Technology founder Sim Wong Hoo dies aged 67 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/creative-technology-founder-sim-wong-hoo-dies-aged-67","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9959942070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550998686387787","authorId":"3550998686387787","name":"Soyabean89","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb77581e98e9ecdbe378a1373a31b0e9","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage","text":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage","html":"Rip to this legend. Creative once had dual listing... Probably one of the local grown brand that put the tiny dot in world tech stage"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":241269552513024,"gmtCreate":1699924518240,"gmtModify":1699924520318,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00710\">$京东方精电(00710)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00710\">$京东方精电(00710)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$京东方精电(00710)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/241269552513024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961517707,"gmtCreate":1668995239909,"gmtModify":1676538136066,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961517707","repostId":"2284033039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284033039","pubTimestamp":1668934033,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2284033039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-20 16:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284033039","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as in","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflation</li><li>Recent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive</li></ul><p>(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.</p><p>Yet no such belief prevails among the big money managers, who are betting that an economic downturn riddled with still-hot price pressures will define trading next year.</p><p>With a closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve sending fresh recession signals, stagflation is the consensus viewpoint among a whopping 92% of respondents in Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund-manager survey.</p><p>At the same time, Citigroup Inc. is painting a scenario of the “Powell Push” in which the Fed will be compelled to hike even if growth plunges, while BlackRock Inc. sees no prospect of a soft landing either in the US or Europe.</p><p>The bearish stance comes even as recent data on employment as well as consumer and producer prices -- combined with decent corporate earnings -- suggest the US central bank may actually succeed in its high-wire mission to ramp up borrowing costs without crashing the business cycle.</p><p>Yet for now, the professional investing class will need to see more conclusive evidence of a benign shift in the economic trajectory before materially changing their defensive positioning across the beaten-up world of stocks and bonds.</p><p>“Central banks will overtighten and push economies into moderate recession, but will stop hiking – before they have done enough to get inflation all the way down to target – as the damage from rate hikes becomes clearer,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef24c09069f86b3bb032bd4713e42f4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Li sees a US growth slowdown, earnings downgrades and elevated price pressures, justifying the firm’s underweights in developed-market equities and bonds, though it’s ready to put some cash back into corporate credit. Her stance is backed by investors at Bank of America, who overwhelmingly see stagflation on the horizon. The firm’s latest survey shows they’re historically underweight equities -- with tech-share positioning the lowest since 2006 -- and overweight cash.</p><p>The pessimism contrasts with a bout of ebullience sparked by last week’s US inflation report suggesting prices pressures may be peaking. That’s intensifying the debate about whether the Fed has room to moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes.</p><p>The latter was summarily dismissed by a parade of monetary officials this week. Among the most hawkish, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least to 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. That came after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in hiking cycle was “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George warned the Fed could find it increasingly difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6d6256d1c4799743f4357a5d675147\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As rate hikes spark bear markets in stocks and bonds, the Fed has gone from a friend in the bull times to a newfound foe. And no dovish policy pivot looks likely anytime soon. Citi, for one, is touting the idea of the “Powell Push,” with the Jerome Powell-led central bank forced into growth-sapping rate hikes on still-raging inflation ahead.</p><p>“We classify the environment as stagflationary,” according to Citi strategist Alex Saunders. He recommends selling US equities and credit, and buying commodities and bonds in a Powell Push scenario.</p><p>Invesco is also treading carefully, tilting exposure to defensive equities with overweight bets in Treasuries and US investment-grade credit.</p><p>“A signal to become more ‘risk on’ would be signs the Fed is getting close to ‘pausing’ rate hikes,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.</p><p>Even <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>’s Andrew Sheets -- who holds a minority view that core inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 -- isn’t ready to go all risk-on yet given the prospect of an economic slowdown. Still, he cites the mid-90s as a reason for optimism. Back then, an era marked by elevated inflation with interest rates soaring, equities and Treasuries eventually managed to pull off big gains.</p><p>“Bears say soft landings are rare. But they happen,” Sheets wrote in his outlook for the next year.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Rebuffs Soft-Landing Dream as 92% Bet on Stagflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 16:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-19/wall-street-rebuffs-soft-landing-dream-as-92-bet-on-stagflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284033039","content_text":"BofA investor survey shows a pervasive belief in stagflationRecent inflation data is promising as investors stay defensive(Bloomberg) -- On the most optimistic corners of Wall Street, promising inflation data over the past week or so suggest the Federal Reserve may accomplish a soft landing after all.Yet no such belief prevails among the big money managers, who are betting that an economic downturn riddled with still-hot price pressures will define trading next year.With a closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve sending fresh recession signals, stagflation is the consensus viewpoint among a whopping 92% of respondents in Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund-manager survey.At the same time, Citigroup Inc. is painting a scenario of the “Powell Push” in which the Fed will be compelled to hike even if growth plunges, while BlackRock Inc. sees no prospect of a soft landing either in the US or Europe.The bearish stance comes even as recent data on employment as well as consumer and producer prices -- combined with decent corporate earnings -- suggest the US central bank may actually succeed in its high-wire mission to ramp up borrowing costs without crashing the business cycle.Yet for now, the professional investing class will need to see more conclusive evidence of a benign shift in the economic trajectory before materially changing their defensive positioning across the beaten-up world of stocks and bonds.“Central banks will overtighten and push economies into moderate recession, but will stop hiking – before they have done enough to get inflation all the way down to target – as the damage from rate hikes becomes clearer,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.Li sees a US growth slowdown, earnings downgrades and elevated price pressures, justifying the firm’s underweights in developed-market equities and bonds, though it’s ready to put some cash back into corporate credit. Her stance is backed by investors at Bank of America, who overwhelmingly see stagflation on the horizon. The firm’s latest survey shows they’re historically underweight equities -- with tech-share positioning the lowest since 2006 -- and overweight cash.The pessimism contrasts with a bout of ebullience sparked by last week’s US inflation report suggesting prices pressures may be peaking. That’s intensifying the debate about whether the Fed has room to moderate the pace of interest-rate hikes.The latter was summarily dismissed by a parade of monetary officials this week. Among the most hawkish, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least to 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. That came after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in hiking cycle was “off the table,” while Kansas City Fed President Esther George warned the Fed could find it increasingly difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession.As rate hikes spark bear markets in stocks and bonds, the Fed has gone from a friend in the bull times to a newfound foe. And no dovish policy pivot looks likely anytime soon. Citi, for one, is touting the idea of the “Powell Push,” with the Jerome Powell-led central bank forced into growth-sapping rate hikes on still-raging inflation ahead.“We classify the environment as stagflationary,” according to Citi strategist Alex Saunders. He recommends selling US equities and credit, and buying commodities and bonds in a Powell Push scenario.Invesco is also treading carefully, tilting exposure to defensive equities with overweight bets in Treasuries and US investment-grade credit.“A signal to become more ‘risk on’ would be signs the Fed is getting close to ‘pausing’ rate hikes,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco.Even Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets -- who holds a minority view that core inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023 -- isn’t ready to go all risk-on yet given the prospect of an economic slowdown. Still, he cites the mid-90s as a reason for optimism. Back then, an era marked by elevated inflation with interest rates soaring, equities and Treasuries eventually managed to pull off big gains.“Bears say soft landings are rare. But they happen,” Sheets wrote in his outlook for the next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963253487,"gmtCreate":1668698199650,"gmtModify":1676538099169,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0be4ea446221b3593ffe8a48b9b9e17c","width":"1125","height":"2356"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963253487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941851133,"gmtCreate":1680148741723,"gmtModify":1680148743680,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941851133","repostId":"2323975182","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949488175,"gmtCreate":1678829970498,"gmtModify":1678829974547,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949488175","repostId":"1185555153","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537675,"gmtCreate":1678747128397,"gmtModify":1678747132476,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537675","repostId":"1110580899","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537861,"gmtCreate":1678747112454,"gmtModify":1678747115892,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537861","repostId":"2319429067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2319429067","pubTimestamp":1678715473,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2319429067?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 21:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通寻求推翻欧盟2.58亿美元反垄断罚款","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2319429067","media":"智通财经网","summary":"2022年6月，高通成功推翻了欧盟另一项约10亿美元的反垄断罚款。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>重返欧洲第二高等法院，因为这家美国半导体公司希望推翻欧盟委员会作出的2.584亿美元反垄断罚款。据悉，欧盟委员会于2019年宣布对高通处以罚款，该机构指控高通在2009年至 2011年期间以低于成本的价格出售芯片，以遏制英国手机软件制造商Icera，后者现在是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)的一部分。</p><p>据报道，高通律师Miguel Rato在听证会上抨击了欧盟委员会，并表示该公司不可能扼杀竞争对手。</p><p>2022年6月，高通成功推翻了欧盟另一项约10亿美元的反垄断罚款。</p></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通寻求推翻欧盟2.58亿美元反垄断罚款</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通寻求推翻欧盟2.58亿美元反垄断罚款\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 21:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/891148.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高通重返欧洲第二高等法院，因为这家美国半导体公司希望推翻欧盟委员会作出的2.584亿美元反垄断罚款。据悉，欧盟委员会于2019年宣布对高通处以罚款，该机构指控高通在2009年至 2011年期间以低于成本的价格出售芯片，以遏制英国手机软件制造商Icera，后者现在是英伟达(NVDA.US)的一部分。据报道，高通律师Miguel Rato在听证会上抨击了欧盟委员会，并表示该公司不可能扼杀竞争对手。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/891148.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d14d2b688480095aa195ccc877b6e5","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/891148.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2319429067","content_text":"高通重返欧洲第二高等法院，因为这家美国半导体公司希望推翻欧盟委员会作出的2.584亿美元反垄断罚款。据悉，欧盟委员会于2019年宣布对高通处以罚款，该机构指控高通在2009年至 2011年期间以低于成本的价格出售芯片，以遏制英国手机软件制造商Icera，后者现在是英伟达(NVDA.US)的一部分。据报道，高通律师Miguel Rato在听证会上抨击了欧盟委员会，并表示该公司不可能扼杀竞争对手。2022年6月，高通成功推翻了欧盟另一项约10亿美元的反垄断罚款。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537192,"gmtCreate":1678747075616,"gmtModify":1678747079650,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537192","repostId":"1145863607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145863607","pubTimestamp":1678716482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145863607?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 22:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"不止是银行！美国理财巨头也难逃“劫数”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145863607","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"嘉信理财的净利息收入也如同其他银行一样，面临着越来越大的风险。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>危机影响开始蔓延，理财巨头也遭遇了暴跌。</p><p>周一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>大幅低开，盘初一度跌超23%，创纪录最大盘中跌幅，截至发稿盘中跌幅超16%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1d6b4d069d0d2bd8ef45177d4ea1d66\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>作为资产管理巨头，嘉信理财的业务组合发展到包括金融咨询、注册投资顾问托管服务以及银行和贷款。随着免佣金交易的出现，嘉信理财的其他收入来源也开始变得更为重要。</p><p>嘉信理财第四季度收益报告显示，该公司去年取得了超过100亿美元的净利息收入，约占其全年总收入的一半。<b>这部分收入是嘉信理财从债券和贷款上赚取的利息与支付客户存款利息之间的差额。</b></p><p><b>随着利率上升，嘉信理财的净利息收入也如同其他银行一样，面临着越来越大的风险。</b></p><p>在短期利率超过5%的情况下，投资者们都不太愿意将现金闲置在银行账户中。</p><p>去年第四季度，嘉信理财的存款较上年同期下降17%，较第三季度下降7%，在最近更新的报告中，嘉信理财1月份客户现金占客户资产的比例从12月份的12.3%降至11.6%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>指出，<b>随着短期借款在今年晚些时候达到峰值，嘉信理财的净息差可能面临压力——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">Signature Bank</a>如出一辙的困境。</b></p><p>晨星分析师Michael Wong在3月9日的一份研究报告中写道：</p><blockquote>许多银行和拥有相关银行实体的公司，如嘉信理财，在资产负债表上也有大量固定收益证券的未实现亏损，因为最近上升的利率降低了固定收益证券的价值。</blockquote><p>嘉信理财在其第四季度报告中称，该公司去年采取措施提振流动性，包括积累可用现金，并利用零售存单等有限的短期资金来源。</p><p>Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods的分析师表示，客户转移现金的速度可能仍是投资者担忧的一个问题，不过他们认为，更严重的存款外流不会导致嘉信理财出现资本问题，但这可能会引发人们对该公司近期盈利能力的质疑，并迫使嘉信理财暂停或减少回购。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不止是银行！美国理财巨头也难逃“劫数”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不止是银行！美国理财巨头也难逃“劫数”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 22:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683923><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行危机影响开始蔓延，理财巨头也遭遇了暴跌。周一，嘉信理财大幅低开，盘初一度跌超23%，创纪录最大盘中跌幅，截至发稿盘中跌幅超16%。作为资产管理巨头，嘉信理财的业务组合发展到包括金融咨询、注册投资顾问托管服务以及银行和贷款。随着免佣金交易的出现，嘉信理财的其他收入来源也开始变得更为重要。嘉信理财第四季度收益报告显示，该公司去年取得了超过100亿美元的净利息收入，约占其全年总收入的一半。这部分...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683923\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7c43fbe3505163a87d780d51b9837d","relate_stocks":{"SCHW":"嘉信理财"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683923","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145863607","content_text":"美国银行危机影响开始蔓延，理财巨头也遭遇了暴跌。周一，嘉信理财大幅低开，盘初一度跌超23%，创纪录最大盘中跌幅，截至发稿盘中跌幅超16%。作为资产管理巨头，嘉信理财的业务组合发展到包括金融咨询、注册投资顾问托管服务以及银行和贷款。随着免佣金交易的出现，嘉信理财的其他收入来源也开始变得更为重要。嘉信理财第四季度收益报告显示，该公司去年取得了超过100亿美元的净利息收入，约占其全年总收入的一半。这部分收入是嘉信理财从债券和贷款上赚取的利息与支付客户存款利息之间的差额。随着利率上升，嘉信理财的净利息收入也如同其他银行一样，面临着越来越大的风险。在短期利率超过5%的情况下，投资者们都不太愿意将现金闲置在银行账户中。去年第四季度，嘉信理财的存款较上年同期下降17%，较第三季度下降7%，在最近更新的报告中，嘉信理财1月份客户现金占客户资产的比例从12月份的12.3%降至11.6%。摩根大通指出，随着短期借款在今年晚些时候达到峰值，嘉信理财的净息差可能面临压力——与硅谷银行、Signature Bank如出一辙的困境。晨星分析师Michael Wong在3月9日的一份研究报告中写道：许多银行和拥有相关银行实体的公司，如嘉信理财，在资产负债表上也有大量固定收益证券的未实现亏损，因为最近上升的利率降低了固定收益证券的价值。嘉信理财在其第四季度报告中称，该公司去年采取措施提振流动性，包括积累可用现金，并利用零售存单等有限的短期资金来源。Keefe, Bruyette & Woods的分析师表示，客户转移现金的速度可能仍是投资者担忧的一个问题，不过他们认为，更严重的存款外流不会导致嘉信理财出现资本问题，但这可能会引发人们对该公司近期盈利能力的质疑，并迫使嘉信理财暂停或减少回购。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537389,"gmtCreate":1678747058241,"gmtModify":1678747061592,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537389","repostId":"1175929938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949537911,"gmtCreate":1678747044234,"gmtModify":1678747048124,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949537911","repostId":"1161620075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161620075","pubTimestamp":1678692866,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161620075?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"硅谷银行破产与科技泡沫——一根绳子上的蚂蚱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161620075","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：东北证券首席经济学家 付鹏</p><p><b>导读</b></p><blockquote>这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应，这跟大家前面看到的信息：科技公司的股价在过去一年多中持续下跌，创新型企业的大规模杀估值，从一级市场到二级市场投资的萧条，美国硅谷旧金山的房价的下跌等等，这些事情其实本质上都是一样的，一根绳子的蚂蚱。</blockquote><blockquote>目前市场对硅谷银行的事情关注度比较高，很大程度上其实是在担心是否会发生类似于2008年从银行开始蔓延的金融危机。但从根本上来看，硅谷银行和雷曼兄弟的倒闭，在对系统性风险的传导和影响上存在很大的区别。</blockquote><blockquote>第一，对于美国的银行的破产要因事而看，不同的情形需要有所区分。在美国，银行破产，特别是中小型银行破产实际上是常态，那么在过去的经济周期中间，一些业务结构非常单一，或者客户结构非常单一，服务对象风险比较偏高的中小型银行，在美国银行的历史发展过程中，其实经常会遭受破产的冲击。</blockquote><blockquote>第二，要理解SVB破产的本质。类似以前跟农业有关的位于美国中部的银行，还有类似和能源高度关联的德州的银行们，一旦高度关联和捆绑的产业遭受到冲击的时候，银行很容易出现连锁的破产一样。</blockquote><blockquote>这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为<b>PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应</b>，这跟大家前面看到的信息：科技公司的股价在过去一年多中持续下跌，创新型企业的大规模杀估值，从一级市场到二级市场投资的萧条，美国硅谷旧金山的房价的下跌等等，这些事情其实本质上都是一样的。</blockquote><blockquote>第三，要关注是否会为金融系统带来系统性风险。硅谷银行从某种程度上来讲，是一个<b>带有非常典型特点的银行</b>，包括服务对象的特殊性，业务模式的特殊性等，SVB的破产并不代表着一个广泛性的美国银行体系可能存在的一种风险。</blockquote><p><b>SVB业务模式及其特殊性</b></p><p>硅谷银行SVB的整个商业模式的发展，是在2000年互联网泡沫破裂之后。2000年互联网泡沫破裂前，当时的硅谷银行已经有了基本业务的雏形，主要是针对美国从80年代开始的发芽的互联网信息技术企业，而孕育这些技术企业的大本营就是在美国的硅谷。</p><p>在SVB的诞生一直到它的发展阶段，其实是贯穿了互联网信息技术科技蓬勃发展的这么一个时代，所以整个业务线其实从SVB创立起，就是朝着这个方向，但是真正成熟起来，是在经历了2000年科网泡沫破裂滞后。</p><p>起初SVB主要是对科技公司做的信贷业务，就是常规的商业银行来赚取息差的方式，当然它还多了一块权证的收益。</p><p>在2000年的科网泡沫破裂以后，其实SVB当时也是受到压力的，只是不像现在的风险和杠杆这么高，但当时各种风投基金市场，科网企业投资资金上市等都已被暂停。</p><p>SVB当时可以选择其他银行的发展模式，如次贷危机前许多银行转向房地产业，如果当时转向房地产业，可能硅谷银行在2008年金融危机可能已经风险暴露。但是当时美国的现代经营服务法案开启混业了以后，SVB还是继续在“硅谷”强化了它的核心业务和核心商业模式，因此硅谷银行迎来了第一次业务大转型。</p><p>按照SVB选择的路径，其实就是一整个关系网，将关系网的每个节点都纳入自己的业务范围之内。在这个关系网中，SVB的基础业务依旧来自于硅谷的互联网科技公司，但更多的SVB开始与风投走得更近，风投基金VC/PE可以是自己的客户，而他们投的项目公司自然也可以变成自己的客户。站在SVB角度看，可以在早期的时候给PE/VC或项目公司放贷，然后在后期时候能够让项目公司的存款重新存回SVB。</p><p>对于硅谷银行来说，硅谷金融集团其实就是左手银行，右手风险投资，甚至自身也能参与股权投资，到后面还可以拿一些不产生财务负担的这种收益权证，作为额外的一个利息收入。随着SVB这套模式的搭建，<b>其核心就是把银行-风投-企业这张网络的上中下游全部吃透，也即是SVB的核心价值。</b></p><p>这套模式对于硅谷可以说是恰到好处。初创型的公司都是极度的依赖于硅谷银行的这种早期的信贷供给，那么包括这些 VC、PE，遇到项目投资的时候进行短期的过桥借贷、投贷结合等等均能提供帮助，如果初创企业做大做强，SVB还可以通过其母公司金融集团去持有初创公司的股权或期权，等待上市或被并购的时候，通过资本增值的方式收益。</p><p>作为配套，在硅谷的或这些初创企业成为大客户后，其员工在硅谷购买住房，SVB也能为其提供一系列房贷支持等等，SVB做的其实是把硅谷和科网公司的所有的人都与其绑定，留在了SVB的银行服务覆盖的层面。SVB提供了几乎可以满足所有需求的服务，SVB是应该说是看似所有方式都盈利的一类商业模式，但是这种商业模式虽然简单，可其优势和劣势都极其突出。</p><p><b>SVB的业务模式极大的依赖于硅谷这过于单一的圈子，优势是会极度的强化业务模式和盈利能力，基本上使得所有的业务条线可以全部的在自己的左右手范围内覆盖，而且同时这种方式还可以在体系内部形成风投-初创企业-存款这样的一个加杠杆循环。</b></p><p>SVB早期把资金投给企业了，甚至还可以动用银行覆盖下的PE/VC网的资源，帮初创型公司去寻找早期的投资人，在其中做过桥和资金流转。而初创企业将来融资的钱和收入的钱，也自然存在SVB上，使得SVB储蓄得以增长，银行便能够拿着这些储蓄去做购买长端和长久期资产的投资。</p><p>而这套模式的劣势也很明显，业务客户群体的单一性过于集中，完全依靠“一方水土”吃“一片田”让SVB的负债端也过于集中。</p><p><b>硅谷银行的破产虽然有资产端资产配置的问题在，但我觉得真正核心问题其实是出在了负债端上，这种隐患却早已根深蒂固。</b></p><p><b>导火索：一根绳子上蚂蚱高利率水平下连锁反应</b></p><p><b>1、负债端：高利率下科网神话的破灭</b></p><p>对于SVB来说，所以无论是信贷也好，还是购买债券资产也好，其实只是在于长久期资产投资的差异，而SVB杠杆主要来自于其负债端。持续高温下的利率水平严重影响了其最大的负债端：科网企业，初创公司 VCPE圈。</p><p>鉴于上述SVB主要的商业模式，SVB与PE/VC，以及硅谷的大多数科技公司和初创公司可以说是一荣俱荣，一损俱损。</p><p>过去数十年的经济周期中，倒挂有央行降息支持，那么所有投资的原理都是借短买长，以短期宽裕、低价的流动性换取长期投资收益。在2008年金融危机以后到2013-2014年，杠杆利差资金成本都是创下了极低的历史水平，自然而然也就创造了估值的泡沫状态。</p><p>如果时间往回推10年，风投盛行，融资成本低廉，科技企业投资市场火热，估值能够一飞冲天。对于初创企业项目来说也能够便利地获得资金，迅速的实现财富的积累，在二级市场上市后还会发现极高的估值扩张，所以整个这种繁荣在过去的十年中是一个正向的循环，对于硅谷银行来说，一边给风投基金提供资金，另外一边孵化着这个项目，并能源源不断吸收着大量的资金。初创企业越繁荣，SVB吸收的资金越多，科网企业的估值越高，存款余额增长就越快，无一不利于硅谷银行的发展。</p><p>初创公司获得融资后存有大量现金，银行的大部分收益也都来自于这个部分，但是成也萧何败也萧何，曾经让SVB获得的这些大规模存款的因素，其实也是让SVB丢掉这些大规模存款的因素。</p><p>对于雷曼或者是贝尔斯登来说，这些银行最大的问题来自于其底层资产，但是对于硅谷银行来讲，你可能更多的要讨论的是它的负债端。</p><p>高通胀和长期的加息将长短利差消耗殆尽，深度倒挂的利差让借短买长的策略难以为继。这一轮长短利差的倒挂并不是简单的短时间倒挂，而是是一个非常深度的倒挂，去杠杆的力度几乎是从82年到现在这40年中最大的，自然也不难理解去杠杆几乎是从各个方位都有发生，并形成了连锁反应。</p><p>首先，<b>风投行业和VC/PE不再能获得和提供足额且便宜的美元融资资金，对于投资项目自然也更加谨慎，且对流动性和退出有了更高的要求。其次，IPO后高估值的这些公司，在高利率的压制下估值持续收缩，融资难度增加，股价持续下跌，在这种背景下，收入减少极大的影响力企业利润。最后，企业CFO开始大规模裁员，企业现金一直在对外支付，整个初创企业不停的提取存款，给SVB的负债端带来巨大的流动性压力</b>。</p><p>其次，加息了以后银行客户开始要求利息的提高，并且开始向表外的货币市场基金上转移。</p><p>同时，<b>在高利率下，习惯高杠杆的科技企业和员工，也已经出现了受制于高房贷利率等资产负债表收缩和衰退</b>。</p><p>SVB过度依赖风险投资和科网企业的圈子和链条，当这些初创企业甚至风投机构出现了大问题，也就是SVB的底层逻辑出现了大问题：商业模式的核心出问题了。</p><p><b>2、资产端：错配与投资失误</b></p><p>SVB在资产端的投资和财务处理上也频频遭受打击。SVB资产端的大头其实理论上应该是一些债券投资，其中一小部分是为VC/PE提供的过桥资金，这部分坏账风险相对较少且可控。其中还有一小部分是房贷，尽管贷款利率抬升对还贷产生压力，但由于占比不高，且贷款对象整体收入水平尚可，因此问题也不大。SVB的问题更多的是负债端传导到了资产端以后，其资产配置组合的问题。</p><p>对于持有的债券，银行可以选择以可供出售（AFS）和持有至到期（HTM）来做会计处理的，也就是以市价入账，或以摊销成本的方式固定在资产负债表里，这两个实际上在处理上是不一样的，如果说把资产固定在表里，债券价格市值的波动实际上是不会体现在资产负债表里。美联储就算加息，可能对于银行的利润影响其实不会特别的大，因为将来实际上债券只要到期赎回，就能够慢慢的把损失平摊到各期。</p><p>但最大的问题在于市价入账。以市价的方式，银行会相应做动态调整的，其会根据债券市场的情况它去做动态的配置和账面调整。美国许多中小银行，配的更多的都是mbs和次生债等等，持有国债等并不划算。而中小型银行更加青睐于市价方式入账，以可供出售（AFS）方式更加灵活，想出售的时候可以随时出售，但是更关键的一点是它可以在比较短的时间里很快的体现在它的利润中间。</p><p><b>按照委托代理理论，银行能够很快体现出利润，高管和管理层能够迅速拿到奖金与分红，这也是中小型银行的常规做法。而采用这种方式入账的基础就是押注债券价格的永远上升，证券市场永远可以借短买长</b>。整体来看有3/4左右都是以这种方式持有的。</p><p>在本轮加息周期当中，SVB一方面要应对负债端不断的资金流出，但另一方面次生债和MBS的亏损加大、久期拉长，浮亏逐渐累积，现金和流动性压力逐渐凸显。失误的资产配置加上紧缩的货币周期，让SVB逐渐难以为继。</p><p>一般来说，在加息周期当中，银行可以调配资产配置中的比重，其他银行已有主动的调整，即可售还是持有到期的这种比重关系，但是硅谷银行的管理层在这一方面上是有明显的判断失误的，这自然也与SVB的商业模式有关系。一群长期混迹于科网行业估值泡沫里的银行家，天生的逻辑就是资金的盛宴会继续下去，利率永远会在低位，长短的利差不会深度倒挂，不会长期的倒挂，借短买长加杠杆的游戏可以永远持续下去。反思一下，SVB经营管理层有犯非常大的判断失误的。在美联储的整个加息过程中，债券收益率的扁平倒挂，其他的银行其实都积极的在管理，采用利率互换对冲倒挂压力，调整资产比重，保留现金等等，但SVB并没有这样做。</p><p>所以说在看到其他银行的这些积极应对和管理以后，其实也就知道SVB的这件事，它不是一个广泛性的风险，可能主要还是集中在我们说某一领域或者说一部分类似的比如旧金山的房产、科网公司的股票、硅谷的银行，以及同类这一片区的一些中小型银行，都需要值得注意。</p><p><b>不会带来系统性的反应</b></p><p>类似于硅谷银行，此前受关注较多的第一共和银行，情况也大同小异，只不过区别在于硅谷银行来自于硅谷中的PE/VC和科网圈子，而第一共和银行来自于旧金山和洛杉矶周边这些高端富人的客户，而这些客户的房地产抵押的这些贷款比较的多，高杠杆也带来了更大的资金周转压力。</p><p>而美国目前房价跌幅最多的地方一定是这些地方，那么未来还可能还会影响到某些银行，但是整个系统性的风险并不会出现。SVB负债端的这种减少并不是单纯因为美联储加息而要涌入货币基金市场，很大一部分我认为还是与其过于集中的客户和产业群体有关系。</p><p>当开始减记时账面出现损失，银行一定会面临挤兑的风潮，构成了非常差的一个负向循环，于是就开始出现了流动性的危机。就目前的情况去看，问题不是特别大，最后无非是谁掏钱买单的问题。</p><p>后期极有可能出现一些大的金融机构，看上SVB的资源和关系网络而掏钱收购，这种可能性是非常大的，况且硅谷银行的股东们现在肯定已经付出代价了。然后这些存款的存款方，虽然百分之95的存款实际上是没投保的，但在后期资产处理上将开始逐渐进行兑付，存款大额灭失的可能性较小。目前看下周的情况，取决于后面接管开始逐渐出售资产的这种情况，但是由SVB蔓延到其他银行的这种可能性很小，需持续密切的关注。</p><p>总结来说，过去十余年享受了宽松且低廉的利率环境，享受了这个利差和杠杆区域的这些美国的这些金融机构，已经逐渐形成连锁反应，所以不光是科网公司估值泡沫、VC/PE和银行，甚至还包括一些富人、富人的房产抵押等等，也有可能会形成一些对金融机构的冲击，这一点可能需要注意。</p><p>主线的逻辑依然是利率曲线的倒挂，但倒挂并不会因为硅谷银行的事情就会发生变化，不一定会影响到美联储后边的决策。如果我们的判断它不像系统性问题去进行蔓延的话，穷人通胀、富人通缩的这类出清在底层通胀、顶层通缩的情况下可能会逐渐形成常态。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n硅谷银行破产与科技泡沫——一根绳子上的蚂蚱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 15:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683865><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：东北证券首席经济学家 付鹏导读这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应，这跟大家前面看到的信息：科技公司的股价在过去一年多中持续下跌，创新型企业的大规模杀估值，从一级市场到二级市场投资的萧条，美国硅谷旧金山的房价的下跌等等，这些事情其实本质上都是一样的，一根绳子的蚂蚱。目前市场对硅谷银行的事情关注度比较高，很大程度上其实是在担心是否会发生类似于2008年从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683865\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8617d080d9147977e15aa777824c0c72","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683865","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1161620075","content_text":"作者：东北证券首席经济学家 付鹏导读这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应，这跟大家前面看到的信息：科技公司的股价在过去一年多中持续下跌，创新型企业的大规模杀估值，从一级市场到二级市场投资的萧条，美国硅谷旧金山的房价的下跌等等，这些事情其实本质上都是一样的，一根绳子的蚂蚱。目前市场对硅谷银行的事情关注度比较高，很大程度上其实是在担心是否会发生类似于2008年从银行开始蔓延的金融危机。但从根本上来看，硅谷银行和雷曼兄弟的倒闭，在对系统性风险的传导和影响上存在很大的区别。第一，对于美国的银行的破产要因事而看，不同的情形需要有所区分。在美国，银行破产，特别是中小型银行破产实际上是常态，那么在过去的经济周期中间，一些业务结构非常单一，或者客户结构非常单一，服务对象风险比较偏高的中小型银行，在美国银行的历史发展过程中，其实经常会遭受破产的冲击。第二，要理解SVB破产的本质。类似以前跟农业有关的位于美国中部的银行，还有类似和能源高度关联的德州的银行们，一旦高度关联和捆绑的产业遭受到冲击的时候，银行很容易出现连锁的破产一样。这一次SVB破产的本质，可以理解为PEVC初创企业科技企业泡沫破裂的连锁反应，这跟大家前面看到的信息：科技公司的股价在过去一年多中持续下跌，创新型企业的大规模杀估值，从一级市场到二级市场投资的萧条，美国硅谷旧金山的房价的下跌等等，这些事情其实本质上都是一样的。第三，要关注是否会为金融系统带来系统性风险。硅谷银行从某种程度上来讲，是一个带有非常典型特点的银行，包括服务对象的特殊性，业务模式的特殊性等，SVB的破产并不代表着一个广泛性的美国银行体系可能存在的一种风险。SVB业务模式及其特殊性硅谷银行SVB的整个商业模式的发展，是在2000年互联网泡沫破裂之后。2000年互联网泡沫破裂前，当时的硅谷银行已经有了基本业务的雏形，主要是针对美国从80年代开始的发芽的互联网信息技术企业，而孕育这些技术企业的大本营就是在美国的硅谷。在SVB的诞生一直到它的发展阶段，其实是贯穿了互联网信息技术科技蓬勃发展的这么一个时代，所以整个业务线其实从SVB创立起，就是朝着这个方向，但是真正成熟起来，是在经历了2000年科网泡沫破裂滞后。起初SVB主要是对科技公司做的信贷业务，就是常规的商业银行来赚取息差的方式，当然它还多了一块权证的收益。在2000年的科网泡沫破裂以后，其实SVB当时也是受到压力的，只是不像现在的风险和杠杆这么高，但当时各种风投基金市场，科网企业投资资金上市等都已被暂停。SVB当时可以选择其他银行的发展模式，如次贷危机前许多银行转向房地产业，如果当时转向房地产业，可能硅谷银行在2008年金融危机可能已经风险暴露。但是当时美国的现代经营服务法案开启混业了以后，SVB还是继续在“硅谷”强化了它的核心业务和核心商业模式，因此硅谷银行迎来了第一次业务大转型。按照SVB选择的路径，其实就是一整个关系网，将关系网的每个节点都纳入自己的业务范围之内。在这个关系网中，SVB的基础业务依旧来自于硅谷的互联网科技公司，但更多的SVB开始与风投走得更近，风投基金VC/PE可以是自己的客户，而他们投的项目公司自然也可以变成自己的客户。站在SVB角度看，可以在早期的时候给PE/VC或项目公司放贷，然后在后期时候能够让项目公司的存款重新存回SVB。对于硅谷银行来说，硅谷金融集团其实就是左手银行，右手风险投资，甚至自身也能参与股权投资，到后面还可以拿一些不产生财务负担的这种收益权证，作为额外的一个利息收入。随着SVB这套模式的搭建，其核心就是把银行-风投-企业这张网络的上中下游全部吃透，也即是SVB的核心价值。这套模式对于硅谷可以说是恰到好处。初创型的公司都是极度的依赖于硅谷银行的这种早期的信贷供给，那么包括这些 VC、PE，遇到项目投资的时候进行短期的过桥借贷、投贷结合等等均能提供帮助，如果初创企业做大做强，SVB还可以通过其母公司金融集团去持有初创公司的股权或期权，等待上市或被并购的时候，通过资本增值的方式收益。作为配套，在硅谷的或这些初创企业成为大客户后，其员工在硅谷购买住房，SVB也能为其提供一系列房贷支持等等，SVB做的其实是把硅谷和科网公司的所有的人都与其绑定，留在了SVB的银行服务覆盖的层面。SVB提供了几乎可以满足所有需求的服务，SVB是应该说是看似所有方式都盈利的一类商业模式，但是这种商业模式虽然简单，可其优势和劣势都极其突出。SVB的业务模式极大的依赖于硅谷这过于单一的圈子，优势是会极度的强化业务模式和盈利能力，基本上使得所有的业务条线可以全部的在自己的左右手范围内覆盖，而且同时这种方式还可以在体系内部形成风投-初创企业-存款这样的一个加杠杆循环。SVB早期把资金投给企业了，甚至还可以动用银行覆盖下的PE/VC网的资源，帮初创型公司去寻找早期的投资人，在其中做过桥和资金流转。而初创企业将来融资的钱和收入的钱，也自然存在SVB上，使得SVB储蓄得以增长，银行便能够拿着这些储蓄去做购买长端和长久期资产的投资。而这套模式的劣势也很明显，业务客户群体的单一性过于集中，完全依靠“一方水土”吃“一片田”让SVB的负债端也过于集中。硅谷银行的破产虽然有资产端资产配置的问题在，但我觉得真正核心问题其实是出在了负债端上，这种隐患却早已根深蒂固。导火索：一根绳子上蚂蚱高利率水平下连锁反应1、负债端：高利率下科网神话的破灭对于SVB来说，所以无论是信贷也好，还是购买债券资产也好，其实只是在于长久期资产投资的差异，而SVB杠杆主要来自于其负债端。持续高温下的利率水平严重影响了其最大的负债端：科网企业，初创公司 VCPE圈。鉴于上述SVB主要的商业模式，SVB与PE/VC，以及硅谷的大多数科技公司和初创公司可以说是一荣俱荣，一损俱损。过去数十年的经济周期中，倒挂有央行降息支持，那么所有投资的原理都是借短买长，以短期宽裕、低价的流动性换取长期投资收益。在2008年金融危机以后到2013-2014年，杠杆利差资金成本都是创下了极低的历史水平，自然而然也就创造了估值的泡沫状态。如果时间往回推10年，风投盛行，融资成本低廉，科技企业投资市场火热，估值能够一飞冲天。对于初创企业项目来说也能够便利地获得资金，迅速的实现财富的积累，在二级市场上市后还会发现极高的估值扩张，所以整个这种繁荣在过去的十年中是一个正向的循环，对于硅谷银行来说，一边给风投基金提供资金，另外一边孵化着这个项目，并能源源不断吸收着大量的资金。初创企业越繁荣，SVB吸收的资金越多，科网企业的估值越高，存款余额增长就越快，无一不利于硅谷银行的发展。初创公司获得融资后存有大量现金，银行的大部分收益也都来自于这个部分，但是成也萧何败也萧何，曾经让SVB获得的这些大规模存款的因素，其实也是让SVB丢掉这些大规模存款的因素。对于雷曼或者是贝尔斯登来说，这些银行最大的问题来自于其底层资产，但是对于硅谷银行来讲，你可能更多的要讨论的是它的负债端。高通胀和长期的加息将长短利差消耗殆尽，深度倒挂的利差让借短买长的策略难以为继。这一轮长短利差的倒挂并不是简单的短时间倒挂，而是是一个非常深度的倒挂，去杠杆的力度几乎是从82年到现在这40年中最大的，自然也不难理解去杠杆几乎是从各个方位都有发生，并形成了连锁反应。首先，风投行业和VC/PE不再能获得和提供足额且便宜的美元融资资金，对于投资项目自然也更加谨慎，且对流动性和退出有了更高的要求。其次，IPO后高估值的这些公司，在高利率的压制下估值持续收缩，融资难度增加，股价持续下跌，在这种背景下，收入减少极大的影响力企业利润。最后，企业CFO开始大规模裁员，企业现金一直在对外支付，整个初创企业不停的提取存款，给SVB的负债端带来巨大的流动性压力。其次，加息了以后银行客户开始要求利息的提高，并且开始向表外的货币市场基金上转移。同时，在高利率下，习惯高杠杆的科技企业和员工，也已经出现了受制于高房贷利率等资产负债表收缩和衰退。SVB过度依赖风险投资和科网企业的圈子和链条，当这些初创企业甚至风投机构出现了大问题，也就是SVB的底层逻辑出现了大问题：商业模式的核心出问题了。2、资产端：错配与投资失误SVB在资产端的投资和财务处理上也频频遭受打击。SVB资产端的大头其实理论上应该是一些债券投资，其中一小部分是为VC/PE提供的过桥资金，这部分坏账风险相对较少且可控。其中还有一小部分是房贷，尽管贷款利率抬升对还贷产生压力，但由于占比不高，且贷款对象整体收入水平尚可，因此问题也不大。SVB的问题更多的是负债端传导到了资产端以后，其资产配置组合的问题。对于持有的债券，银行可以选择以可供出售（AFS）和持有至到期（HTM）来做会计处理的，也就是以市价入账，或以摊销成本的方式固定在资产负债表里，这两个实际上在处理上是不一样的，如果说把资产固定在表里，债券价格市值的波动实际上是不会体现在资产负债表里。美联储就算加息，可能对于银行的利润影响其实不会特别的大，因为将来实际上债券只要到期赎回，就能够慢慢的把损失平摊到各期。但最大的问题在于市价入账。以市价的方式，银行会相应做动态调整的，其会根据债券市场的情况它去做动态的配置和账面调整。美国许多中小银行，配的更多的都是mbs和次生债等等，持有国债等并不划算。而中小型银行更加青睐于市价方式入账，以可供出售（AFS）方式更加灵活，想出售的时候可以随时出售，但是更关键的一点是它可以在比较短的时间里很快的体现在它的利润中间。按照委托代理理论，银行能够很快体现出利润，高管和管理层能够迅速拿到奖金与分红，这也是中小型银行的常规做法。而采用这种方式入账的基础就是押注债券价格的永远上升，证券市场永远可以借短买长。整体来看有3/4左右都是以这种方式持有的。在本轮加息周期当中，SVB一方面要应对负债端不断的资金流出，但另一方面次生债和MBS的亏损加大、久期拉长，浮亏逐渐累积，现金和流动性压力逐渐凸显。失误的资产配置加上紧缩的货币周期，让SVB逐渐难以为继。一般来说，在加息周期当中，银行可以调配资产配置中的比重，其他银行已有主动的调整，即可售还是持有到期的这种比重关系，但是硅谷银行的管理层在这一方面上是有明显的判断失误的，这自然也与SVB的商业模式有关系。一群长期混迹于科网行业估值泡沫里的银行家，天生的逻辑就是资金的盛宴会继续下去，利率永远会在低位，长短的利差不会深度倒挂，不会长期的倒挂，借短买长加杠杆的游戏可以永远持续下去。反思一下，SVB经营管理层有犯非常大的判断失误的。在美联储的整个加息过程中，债券收益率的扁平倒挂，其他的银行其实都积极的在管理，采用利率互换对冲倒挂压力，调整资产比重，保留现金等等，但SVB并没有这样做。所以说在看到其他银行的这些积极应对和管理以后，其实也就知道SVB的这件事，它不是一个广泛性的风险，可能主要还是集中在我们说某一领域或者说一部分类似的比如旧金山的房产、科网公司的股票、硅谷的银行，以及同类这一片区的一些中小型银行，都需要值得注意。不会带来系统性的反应类似于硅谷银行，此前受关注较多的第一共和银行，情况也大同小异，只不过区别在于硅谷银行来自于硅谷中的PE/VC和科网圈子，而第一共和银行来自于旧金山和洛杉矶周边这些高端富人的客户，而这些客户的房地产抵押的这些贷款比较的多，高杠杆也带来了更大的资金周转压力。而美国目前房价跌幅最多的地方一定是这些地方，那么未来还可能还会影响到某些银行，但是整个系统性的风险并不会出现。SVB负债端的这种减少并不是单纯因为美联储加息而要涌入货币基金市场，很大一部分我认为还是与其过于集中的客户和产业群体有关系。当开始减记时账面出现损失，银行一定会面临挤兑的风潮，构成了非常差的一个负向循环，于是就开始出现了流动性的危机。就目前的情况去看，问题不是特别大，最后无非是谁掏钱买单的问题。后期极有可能出现一些大的金融机构，看上SVB的资源和关系网络而掏钱收购，这种可能性是非常大的，况且硅谷银行的股东们现在肯定已经付出代价了。然后这些存款的存款方，虽然百分之95的存款实际上是没投保的，但在后期资产处理上将开始逐渐进行兑付，存款大额灭失的可能性较小。目前看下周的情况，取决于后面接管开始逐渐出售资产的这种情况，但是由SVB蔓延到其他银行的这种可能性很小，需持续密切的关注。总结来说，过去十余年享受了宽松且低廉的利率环境，享受了这个利差和杠杆区域的这些美国的这些金融机构，已经逐渐形成连锁反应，所以不光是科网公司估值泡沫、VC/PE和银行，甚至还包括一些富人、富人的房产抵押等等，也有可能会形成一些对金融机构的冲击，这一点可能需要注意。主线的逻辑依然是利率曲线的倒挂，但倒挂并不会因为硅谷银行的事情就会发生变化，不一定会影响到美联储后边的决策。如果我们的判断它不像系统性问题去进行蔓延的话，穷人通胀、富人通缩的这类出清在底层通胀、顶层通缩的情况下可能会逐渐形成常态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":627725630,"gmtCreate":1678706193521,"gmtModify":1678706193521,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6597593524","listText":"6597593524","text":"6597593524","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627725630","repostId":"1121669256","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121669256","pubTimestamp":1678697932,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121669256?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-13 16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121669256","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a20d1f574453f8287dcce50f6ba300d\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行（Western Alliance Bancorporation）盘前跌20%；PacWest Bancorp盘前一度跌超28%，此前鉴于近期的行业事件更新财务信息，并重申其资本和流动资金战略。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca49fb8ccde900d85765ec9a63ccdf27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，统计结果显示，108家银行中有102家银行去年第四季度净息差扩大。剩下的10家银行在过去一年净息差收窄、或扩大幅度最小：硅谷银行排在第11位，去年第四季度净利息收入和平均总资产比值为1.93%，高于去年同期的1.83%。</p><p>媒体指出，在硅谷银行母公司SIVB决定大举筹资以前，该公司的净利息收益率、又名净息差（NIM）变动已经暗示，硅谷银行无法很好地应对利率上升、同时风险投资领域贷款增长放缓的双重打击环境。</p><p>因此以NIM为指标衡量，在硅谷银行爆雷后，媒体认为，<b>还有十家银行可能陷入这样的危机，因为他们过去一年的NIM都收窄，或者略有扩大。</b>在名单中，第一共和银行上周五盘初曾跌超50%，盘中不止一次因为股价波动过大而暂停交易，早盘尾声时跌幅一度不足0.06%，午盘又扩大到10%以上。</p><p>但第一共和银行当时表示，公司储蓄资金基础强大，并有可观的多样性。流动性状况同样非常强劲，目前仅有4%的储金与科技行业相关。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n第一共和银行盘前跌超60%，这三家美国小银行今晚要崩？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-13 16:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的第一共和银行(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。同时...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab829791189dcecae5ae68172028ca31","relate_stocks":{"PACW":"西太平洋合众银行","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683893","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1121669256","content_text":"3月13日周一，硅谷银行危机继续发酵，总部位于加州的第一共和银行(First Republic Bank)美股盘前跌幅不断扩大，截至目前跌超60%。有美国财经界及加密币圈人士发贴，声称美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)亦拟进驻第一共和银行，有传该银行可能最快周一便会被FDIC接管。昨日(周日)第一共和银行部分分行外已有存户排队，料他们将会通宵轮候，希望等候美国时间周一早上银行开门时立即提走存款。同时，阿莱恩斯西部银行（Western Alliance Bancorporation）盘前跌20%；PacWest Bancorp盘前一度跌超28%，此前鉴于近期的行业事件更新财务信息，并重申其资本和流动资金战略。华尔街见闻此前提及，统计结果显示，108家银行中有102家银行去年第四季度净息差扩大。剩下的10家银行在过去一年净息差收窄、或扩大幅度最小：硅谷银行排在第11位，去年第四季度净利息收入和平均总资产比值为1.93%，高于去年同期的1.83%。媒体指出，在硅谷银行母公司SIVB决定大举筹资以前，该公司的净利息收益率、又名净息差（NIM）变动已经暗示，硅谷银行无法很好地应对利率上升、同时风险投资领域贷款增长放缓的双重打击环境。因此以NIM为指标衡量，在硅谷银行爆雷后，媒体认为，还有十家银行可能陷入这样的危机，因为他们过去一年的NIM都收窄，或者略有扩大。在名单中，第一共和银行上周五盘初曾跌超50%，盘中不止一次因为股价波动过大而暂停交易，早盘尾声时跌幅一度不足0.06%，午盘又扩大到10%以上。但第一共和银行当时表示，公司储蓄资金基础强大，并有可观的多样性。流动性状况同样非常强劲，目前仅有4%的储金与科技行业相关。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927900282,"gmtCreate":1672363241246,"gmtModify":1676538678743,"author":{"id":"3571972374738086","authorId":"3571972374738086","name":"Than","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffec423859ee144e45cbb36e9239a79a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01398\">$工商银行(01398)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a 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