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2021-06-15

Peanut

Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds

2021-02-08

Ttm!

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us

2021-02-01

N9

The frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?

2021-01-30

Yes

Who is Trading on U.S. Markets?

2021-01-29

Jy

China Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. </p>\n<p>Shares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7be375c5b14bd0e88066699dea19c74\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\"></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoyal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 19:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. \nProceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1129954811","content_text":"Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. \nProceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. \nShares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389426943,"gmtCreate":1612795715682,"gmtModify":1704874339827,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ttm!","listText":"Ttm!","text":"Ttm!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389426943","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312575486,"gmtCreate":1612171476445,"gmtModify":1704867676957,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N9","listText":"N9","text":"N9","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312575486","repostId":"1100743236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100743236","pubTimestamp":1612167462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100743236?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-01 16:17","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"The frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100743236","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last we","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 16:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1100743236","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets, which has helped drive trading activity in heavily shorted stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment in recent weeks.Futures contracts for silver surged higher early Monday morning as the Reddit-fueled boom in highly shorted stocks appears to be spilling over into the metals market.Spot silverprices jumped more than 10.5% at around 3:10 a.m. ET, trading at $29.85 an ounce. It comes amid the biggest move for silverfuturessince at least 2013.The sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week. Silver mining stocksCoeur MiningandPan American Silverrose 16.9% and 14.7%, respectively, on Thursday and Friday. The iShares Silver Trust jumped 6.7% during those two sessions.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets, which has helped drive trading activity in heavily shorted stocks likeGameStopandAMC Entertainmentin recent weeks.The forum had multiple active threads dedicated to silver on Sunday night. The phrase ”#silversqueeze” was also trending on Twitter.The move in silver was touted by investors who are bullish on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which see the new digital assets in part as replacements for traditional metals.Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of cryptocurrency firm Gemini, said on twitter that, “The ramifications of a#silversqueezecannot be underestimated. If it’s exposed that there are more paper claims on silver than actual silver, not only would payoff be enormous, but gold would be next.#Bitcoinfixes this.”The dramatic spikes in GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks were due in part to a short squeeze, which is a phenomenon where investors who have bet against a stock are forced to buy shares to cover their positions as the name moves higher.Melvin Capital, one of the hedge funds who originally had short positions in GameStop,lost 53% in January.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312913359,"gmtCreate":1611989287771,"gmtModify":1704866838656,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312913359","repostId":"1131015158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131015158","pubTimestamp":1611902095,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131015158?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-29 14:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who is Trading on U.S. Markets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131015158","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year","content":"<p>The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).</p><p>As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 trillion, representing nearly 40% of totalglobal marketcapitalization. On an average day in 2019, trading in company stocks (excluding ETPs) adds to $233 billion. That results in turnover, multiplied by a company’s market cap trades each year, which is more than double what we see in Asia or Europe.</p><p>Better liquidity for all companies should result in&nbsp;lower trading costs&nbsp;for investors and lower&nbsp;costs of capital&nbsp;for issuers.</p><p><b>Chart 1: The U.S. equity market is the most liquid in the world (2019 data shown)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750bf1eaa39bf5912710666180423d55\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Which raises a question: “Who is doing all this U.S. stock trading?”</p><p>The answer isn’t obvious, as very little trading is attributed to counterparties in public data sources. But using a number of sources, the estimates we create below show that all the participants in the&nbsp;U.S. markets ecosystem&nbsp;have different and important roles to play. These different players keep trading spreads low and prices efficient, and transfer liquidity between markets rapidly and cheaply.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The U.S. market ecosystem shows lots of participants contribute to liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6184c14291f0a33d44ed198bce806821\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our estimates are shown below in Table 1. But there are a few things to highlight before we get going:</p><ul><li>Liquidity is relevant to both buyers&nbsp;<i>and</i>&nbsp;And risk is hedged in dollars, not shares. So we look at the value of&nbsp;<i>gross</i>&nbsp;liquidity (trades x 2). So&nbsp;<i>trading</i>&nbsp;of $233 billion per day actually represents&nbsp;<i>liquidity</i>&nbsp;of double that, or $466 billion per day.</li><li>Because most of the data from 2020 isn’t available yet, we’re basing these estimates on 2019 trading and assets. Total liquidity in 2020 actually increased 50% to almost $700 billion per day, thanks to an increase in retail trading and volatility caused by COVID-19.</li><li>Public data becomes harder and harder to find the more we progress down the list in Table 1. Accordingly, our estimates would increasingly adjust once more data becomes available.</li><li>We don’t include ETF trading, even though they are&nbsp;NMS stocks, which would add another $88 billion per day, or $176 billion in liquidity.</li></ul><p>We also try to separate our estimates by strategies available to investors (“natural” investors) and those deployed by liquidity providers (intermediators).</p><p><b>Table 1: Estimating who contributes to market liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7e8a9db500a8d200aab6a55764908f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, let’s walk through how we arrived at these estimates.</p><p><b>How much do investors trade?</b></p><p>As Chart 3 shows, investors represent a small section of the market ecosystem, although data shows that they own the majority of stock market capital.</p><p>Around two-thirds of corporate shares are owned by U.S. households via mutual funds (22%), pension funds (11%) or retail brokerage (34%) accounts. And an additional 16% are owned by foreign investors, likely mostly through professionally managed investments too.</p><p><b>Chart 3: Ownership of U.S. stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ec9c7de9bf77f18a31094ba470b364\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>How much do mutual funds trade?</b></p><p>Let’s start with professionally managed investments: mutual funds (domestic and international), ETFs and pensions. We know their assets are around $21.2 trillion (Chart 3).</p><p>ICI tracks the&nbsp;average turnover&nbsp;of all mutual funds. Their data shows that average turnover has been steadily declining for most of the past 35 years and now sits below 30% per annum each side.</p><p>Some of the decline is due to the rise in index funds. As we discuss below, they have a much&nbsp;lower turnover. Even when we account for that, we estimate active trading has still fallen to around 47% each side, equating to longer average hold times even in active institutional accounts.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Mutual fund turnover has declined to around 30%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5b070aeac70dd7d00d369f1f131dda\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Knowing that mutual funds tend to stay close to fully invested, we know that their buys are likely offset by sells, so turnover will result in a two-sided trade. Doing the math:</p><p>Mutual fund trading = $21.1 trillion in assets x 28% turnover x 2 sides</p><p>= $47.2 billion per day, or less than 10% of liquidity.</p><p>This total is somewhat understated as ICI doesn’t include cash inflows and outflows. If gross cash flows are (say) half the size again of trades, that would lead to around $70 billion in liquidity each day, or just 15% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>Index funds trade much (much) less</b></p><p>One of the common myths of liquidity is that because index funds have such large assets and consistent inflows, they also do a lot of trading, which also distorts prices.</p><p>The truth is very different. In fact,&nbsp;BlackRock&nbsp;estimated in 2017 that for every $1 in index trading, there was more than $20 in active trading.</p><p>That’s because index funds are designed to do very little trading. Once an index portfolio buys an index weight holding of a stock, in principle, they don’t have to trade it ever again. As the price of the stock rises, so does its weight in the index and in the portfolio, and the portfolio tracks the performance of the index perfectly. That should make index funds some of the longest-term holders of stocks in the market.</p><p>In the real world, some trading is required. As companies raise more capital or buy back stock, index funds also need to adjust holdings. IPOs, mergers and price changes can also cause stocks to be added and deleted from indexes, also requiring the index portfolio to trade. But index providers tend to do that infrequently. In fact,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 turnover&nbsp;is estimated at around 4.4%, a statistic consistent with Credit Suisse’s estimates for the annual Russell 1000 reconstitution of just 3% over recent years.</p><p>Although small-cap indexes see higher turnover as their largest holdings are often promoted to large-cap indexes during the year. For example, Credit Suisse also estimates turnover in the small-cap Russell 2000 is much higher at around 20%.</p><p>In addition, because index funds are focused on replicating their index, not trying to beat it, they tend to trade exactly when the index trades. That means almost all their trading happens at the close.</p><p>Interestingly, despite their sizable assets, Credit Suisse’s index team estimated that all U.S. index funds traded&nbsp;just over $300 billion&nbsp;in 2019, including adds and deletes (both buys and sells). The&nbsp;BlackRock&nbsp;study of 2017 estimated that index funds traded $460 billion annually. Even this higher turnover estimate means index funds make up less than 0.5% of all liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Because indexes themselves tend to minimize their rebalances, we also see that there are nine dates each year when index funds do&nbsp;most of their trading. Data suggests that index funds are around 40% of all trading on index rebalance dates, but cash flows that occur on other days add to less than 5% of close volume, hardly enough to impact price discovery.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Trading in the close higher on index rebalance dates</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2fcee6a01b19149c5c43f4810606571\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That leaves active funds providing almost all of the $70 trillion in mutual fund liquidity, and basically to 100% of intraday trading and price discovery done by mutual funds.</p><p>There are two important points to note about this. Even though index funds are large:</p><ul><li>Their turnover is low, making them even longer-term holders than active investors.</li><li>Their contribution to price discovery (or price distortions, as some claim) is muted.</li></ul><p><b>Chart 6: Index funds have grown to around 40% of all mutual fund assets</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f847fbcbc3db0bbe61eb12fe1b10d8a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hedge funds have fewer assets but higher turnover</b></p><p>Based on&nbsp;estimates, hedge funds hold around 3% of total corporate equities. This translates into roughly $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM). However, most hedge funds are both levered and operating higher turnover (lower hold time) strategies, which increases the liquidity they supply to the market.</p><p>Hedge funds are notoriously secretive. They also have a wide range of strategies from long term activists to high turnover stat-arb funds. So finding good average trading data is hard.</p><ul><li>This paper&nbsp;suggests that equity hedge fund leverage could be around two times. That puts gross assets are closer to $2 trillion, although&nbsp;short interest data&nbsp;suggests that a lot of hedge funds actually short with ETFs (reducing stock trading). Other data suggests some hedge funds lever up during the day.</li><li>Other sources suggest hedge fund turnover is between&nbsp;120%&nbsp;and&nbsp;200%&nbsp;per annum, which implies an average hold time for each stock of less than one year.</li><li>Some funds likely trade much more intraday and minimize overnight exposures (increasing stock trading), but we classify them as intermediation liquidity in Table 1, rather than as a strategy used by natural investors.</li></ul><p>Using these conservative estimates:</p><p>Hedge fund trading = $1 trillion in assets x (2 leverage x 2 sides) x 200% turnover = $9 trillion in liquidity each year</p><p>= $36 billion/day or 8% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>What about ETFs?</b></p><p>With&nbsp;ETF liquidity of $176 billion per day&nbsp;(both sides) in 2019, it is easy to say they cause a lot of stock trading, but that’s not true. There are three types of ETF liquidity:</p><ol><li><b>ETFs as mutual funds:</b>&nbsp;Just like other mutual funds, their portfolio will turnover as indexes change. However, most ETF assets are in index-style portfolios where turnover by the portfolio manager is limited. Consequently, we have included these in the mutual fund turnover metrics in the mutual funds section above.</li><li><b>ETF trading:</b>&nbsp;ETFs are their own ticker. An investor trading an ETF&nbsp;usually has nothing to do&nbsp;with underlying company stocks. In many QQQ trades, both the buyer and seller usually represent traders choosing ETFs because they are a cheaper way to gain portfolio exposure.</li><li><b>ETF to stock arbitrage</b>: Only authorized participants have the ability to arbitrage between the ETF and the stocks. We classify them as intermediaries (not naturals) and discuss their impact on stock liquidity later.</li></ol><p><b>What proportion of professional investors trade in dark pools?</b></p><p>All of the categories above could be considered “professional investors.” They are likely to use&nbsp;brokers’ algorithms&nbsp;to work orders in the market. As a whole, these professional investors (mutual, international, pension and ETF funds) represent almost 60% of all investor assets, but just 23% of all liquidity.</p><p>We also know that brokers route their orders through dark pools—and we know that&nbsp;dark pools represent around 12%&nbsp;of all liquidity.</p><p>Even with market makers in dark pools, the math shows that professional investors execute a material proportion of their trades in dark pools, possibly 30% or more.</p><p><b>What about retail?</b></p><p>Retail trading grew significantly in 2020 to&nbsp;around 20%&nbsp;of the market. However, even in 2019, with 15% of all trades being retail, they represented a meaningful amount of “investor” liquidity.</p><p>However, the way people refer to retail market share overstates their contribution to liquidity for two reasons:</p><ol><li>Each retail trade represents a buyer&nbsp;<i>or</i>&nbsp;seller, so they are on one side of 15% of&nbsp;<i>shares</i></li><li>Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks (see Chart 7). Using non-ATS TRF data by ticker, we estimate their contribution to&nbsp;<i>value</i>&nbsp;traded is actually 15% lower.</li></ol><p>That adds to closer to $30 billion each day in 2019, or just over 6% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks more, reducing their contribution to notional liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb7571f7a20913204cd900b55773c47\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Where do Naturals trade?</b></p><p>So far, we have accounted for around 93% of assets but less than 30% of all liquidity.</p><p>That’s less than all the liquidity that trades off-exchange. With dark pools representing 12% of all trades and other off exchange adding to 29% of all trades.</p><p>That seems to indicate that a material proportion of naturals execute off-exchange – even though they rely on the exchanges for efficient prices and tight spreads. Ironically that makes the role of intermediaries, and competitive quotes on exchanges, even more important to the whole ecosystem. (It’s also a reason to reward the public market for sharing price data – but that’s a topic for another day)</p><p><b>Chart 8: These calculations indicate natural investors rely on exchanges for efficient prices but do a large proportion of trading off exchanges</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a0508b17c8db1f9b8a96b973225c11\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"769\"></p><p><b>What about the rest?</b></p><p>The breakdown for the other 70% of liquidity is much harder to support with public data, but our estimates show this is where specialist liquidity providers step in to keep markets and spreads efficient.</p><p>It includes a lot of different strategies, from two-sided liquidity provision to cross market arbitrage to statistical arbitrage strategies, all targeting short-term mispricing caused by other traders.</p><p>Their size in the U.S. market is a testament to low transaction costs, which allow for risk to be transferred via one or more additional trades. It is also a result of fragmentation and segmentation that increases facilitated trades.</p><p>Here our estimates are based on less hard data but inferred from other levels of activity. To see how intermediaries could add to 70% of liquidity, consider:</p><ul><li><b>Wholesaler facilitation</b>: Each&nbsp;retail trade facilitated off-exchange&nbsp;has a wholesaler on the other side. So the intermediation doubles the liquidity recorded (totaling 13% of all liquidity). However, TRF data shows the major wholesalers actually print trades representing closer to 25% of all liquidity, or about $117 billion per day. That additional 12% of all liquidity represents $57 billion, and likely trades with institutional investors or even other brokers.</li><li><b>Equity futures</b>&nbsp;traded around $620 billion each day in 2019, even more liquidity than the whole underlying U.S. stock market (Chart 9). S&amp;P 500 Futures spreads are tight, at 0.8 basis points (bps), and there are arbitrage opportunities with SPY ETFs at 0.4bps and underlying portfolio at 4bps. Given stocks are the most expensive, it’s likely that most futures trades do NOT cause stocks to trade. But if just 5% of futures trading led to stock arbitrage, that would account for around $31bn/day or 7% of all stock liquidity, almost all in S&amp;P500 stocks.</li><li><b>ETF arbitrage:</b>As discussed above, some “authorized participants” are able to convert rich stocks into cheaper ETFs and vice versa, a critical market function that keeps ETFs fairly priced for investors. However, ETF spreads are&nbsp;often so cheap&nbsp;that there are no arbitrage opportunities. Industry estimates peg the amount of trading that is ETF arbitrage at&nbsp;between 4% and 10% of ETF trading. If that’s the case, then ETF arbitrage contributes around $11 billion per day in liquidity, of just 2% of all liquidity. That’s consistent with the average creations plus redemptions per day (Chart 9), although that also includes many non-U.S. equity ETFs.</li></ul><p><b>Chart 9: ETF creations are a fraction of ETF liquidity, which is a fraction of stock liquidity, which itself is a fraction of equity futures liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12186b4f2fe4046cb66be42b3a4428cf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><ul><li><b>Options</b>&nbsp;markets require initial hedges and constant delta hedging. Notional trading of stock options totals $221 billion per day. If just 30% of notional leads to stock hedges and arbitrage, that translates to $66 billion per day, or 14% of liquidity.</li><li><b>Market makers’</b>&nbsp;purpose is to provide two-sided liquidity, not hold stocks long or short. They make money by accurately pricing the spread, and investors benefit from instantaneous liquidity on market orders. Given how few natural investors actually trade on-exchange, it’s more likely than many expect that the quotes on the screen are in fact market makers intermediating trades. If market makers provide liquidity on one side of every second trade on-exchange, that would add to around 16% in total liquidity.</li><li><b>Opportunistic traders:</b>&nbsp;Some traders run arbitrage strategies that correct mispricing, often by taking liquidity. We note that&nbsp;this paper&nbsp;suggests hedge funds made up as much as 30% of all trades, almost double our estimate above. That’s likely because traders with short-term mispricing strategies and small overnight balance, like statistical arbitrage, are excluded from our estimates above. These traders provide important risk transfers, even though there are little overnight positions or leverage. Given liquidity providers make up 16%, it’s possible these taker strategies add to 8% of all liquidity, or $37 billion per day.</li></ul><p>That still leaves us with a pretty large “other” category, at least from the perspective of natural investors. However, there are many other trading and hedging strategies we don’t know much about. For example, hedge funds also buy swaps and OTC options contracts from banks who still need to hedge their risk. Without data on the size of those markets, it’s difficult to estimate their impact on stock trading, but their gamma could even explain some of the growth in market-on-close trading.</p><p>It’s also possible some of our intermediation estimates are off by at least this amount (given the lack of real data to reconcile to).</p><p><b>Chart 10: Naturals hold most assets, but intermediation makes up most of the trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5433155e6e58652d046d387c3c7bc1f6\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What does this teach us?</b></p><p>We would love to have more data to refine our results. But even as they stand, it helps us understand the role of each participant, bringing liquidity and price efficiency to the ecosystem. The data also busts some common myths:</p><ul><li><b>Index funds don’t trade much at all</b>, which means they can’t permanently distort prices either.</li><li><b>Price discovery comes from active funds and hedge funds.</b>Informed trading overwhelms index fund inflows.</li><li><b>Lots of other participants specialize in risk transfer</b>, from futures arbitrage to statistical arbitrage to classic market making. By process of elimination, these participants may trade even more than all the natural investors combined. But having all this competition for lit trading is also critical to the rest of the market who rely on tight spreads and instant liquidity.</li></ul><p>The key takeaway though is that very low costs to trade in the U.S. allow so many specialists to play a role in keeping markets efficient. Rather than degrading market quality, all the competition for marginally profitable trades translates into more liquidity and tighter spreads for investors, which in turn leads to&nbsp;more attractive valuations&nbsp;for issuers.</p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is Trading on U.S. Markets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is Trading on U.S. Markets?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 14:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131015158","content_text":"The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 trillion, representing nearly 40% of totalglobal marketcapitalization. On an average day in 2019, trading in company stocks (excluding ETPs) adds to $233 billion. That results in turnover, multiplied by a company’s market cap trades each year, which is more than double what we see in Asia or Europe.Better liquidity for all companies should result in lower trading costs for investors and lower costs of capital for issuers.Chart 1: The U.S. equity market is the most liquid in the world (2019 data shown)Which raises a question: “Who is doing all this U.S. stock trading?”The answer isn’t obvious, as very little trading is attributed to counterparties in public data sources. But using a number of sources, the estimates we create below show that all the participants in the U.S. markets ecosystem have different and important roles to play. These different players keep trading spreads low and prices efficient, and transfer liquidity between markets rapidly and cheaply.Chart 2: The U.S. market ecosystem shows lots of participants contribute to liquidityOur estimates are shown below in Table 1. But there are a few things to highlight before we get going:Liquidity is relevant to both buyers and And risk is hedged in dollars, not shares. So we look at the value of gross liquidity (trades x 2). So trading of $233 billion per day actually represents liquidity of double that, or $466 billion per day.Because most of the data from 2020 isn’t available yet, we’re basing these estimates on 2019 trading and assets. Total liquidity in 2020 actually increased 50% to almost $700 billion per day, thanks to an increase in retail trading and volatility caused by COVID-19.Public data becomes harder and harder to find the more we progress down the list in Table 1. Accordingly, our estimates would increasingly adjust once more data becomes available.We don’t include ETF trading, even though they are NMS stocks, which would add another $88 billion per day, or $176 billion in liquidity.We also try to separate our estimates by strategies available to investors (“natural” investors) and those deployed by liquidity providers (intermediators).Table 1: Estimating who contributes to market liquiditySo, let’s walk through how we arrived at these estimates.How much do investors trade?As Chart 3 shows, investors represent a small section of the market ecosystem, although data shows that they own the majority of stock market capital.Around two-thirds of corporate shares are owned by U.S. households via mutual funds (22%), pension funds (11%) or retail brokerage (34%) accounts. And an additional 16% are owned by foreign investors, likely mostly through professionally managed investments too.Chart 3: Ownership of U.S. stocksHow much do mutual funds trade?Let’s start with professionally managed investments: mutual funds (domestic and international), ETFs and pensions. We know their assets are around $21.2 trillion (Chart 3).ICI tracks the average turnover of all mutual funds. Their data shows that average turnover has been steadily declining for most of the past 35 years and now sits below 30% per annum each side.Some of the decline is due to the rise in index funds. As we discuss below, they have a much lower turnover. Even when we account for that, we estimate active trading has still fallen to around 47% each side, equating to longer average hold times even in active institutional accounts.Chart 4: Mutual fund turnover has declined to around 30%Knowing that mutual funds tend to stay close to fully invested, we know that their buys are likely offset by sells, so turnover will result in a two-sided trade. Doing the math:Mutual fund trading = $21.1 trillion in assets x 28% turnover x 2 sides= $47.2 billion per day, or less than 10% of liquidity.This total is somewhat understated as ICI doesn’t include cash inflows and outflows. If gross cash flows are (say) half the size again of trades, that would lead to around $70 billion in liquidity each day, or just 15% of all liquidity.Index funds trade much (much) lessOne of the common myths of liquidity is that because index funds have such large assets and consistent inflows, they also do a lot of trading, which also distorts prices.The truth is very different. In fact, BlackRock estimated in 2017 that for every $1 in index trading, there was more than $20 in active trading.That’s because index funds are designed to do very little trading. Once an index portfolio buys an index weight holding of a stock, in principle, they don’t have to trade it ever again. As the price of the stock rises, so does its weight in the index and in the portfolio, and the portfolio tracks the performance of the index perfectly. That should make index funds some of the longest-term holders of stocks in the market.In the real world, some trading is required. As companies raise more capital or buy back stock, index funds also need to adjust holdings. IPOs, mergers and price changes can also cause stocks to be added and deleted from indexes, also requiring the index portfolio to trade. But index providers tend to do that infrequently. In fact, S&P 500 turnover is estimated at around 4.4%, a statistic consistent with Credit Suisse’s estimates for the annual Russell 1000 reconstitution of just 3% over recent years.Although small-cap indexes see higher turnover as their largest holdings are often promoted to large-cap indexes during the year. For example, Credit Suisse also estimates turnover in the small-cap Russell 2000 is much higher at around 20%.In addition, because index funds are focused on replicating their index, not trying to beat it, they tend to trade exactly when the index trades. That means almost all their trading happens at the close.Interestingly, despite their sizable assets, Credit Suisse’s index team estimated that all U.S. index funds traded just over $300 billion in 2019, including adds and deletes (both buys and sells). The BlackRock study of 2017 estimated that index funds traded $460 billion annually. Even this higher turnover estimate means index funds make up less than 0.5% of all liquidity in the stock market.Because indexes themselves tend to minimize their rebalances, we also see that there are nine dates each year when index funds do most of their trading. Data suggests that index funds are around 40% of all trading on index rebalance dates, but cash flows that occur on other days add to less than 5% of close volume, hardly enough to impact price discovery.Chart 5: Trading in the close higher on index rebalance datesThat leaves active funds providing almost all of the $70 trillion in mutual fund liquidity, and basically to 100% of intraday trading and price discovery done by mutual funds.There are two important points to note about this. Even though index funds are large:Their turnover is low, making them even longer-term holders than active investors.Their contribution to price discovery (or price distortions, as some claim) is muted.Chart 6: Index funds have grown to around 40% of all mutual fund assetsHedge funds have fewer assets but higher turnoverBased on estimates, hedge funds hold around 3% of total corporate equities. This translates into roughly $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM). However, most hedge funds are both levered and operating higher turnover (lower hold time) strategies, which increases the liquidity they supply to the market.Hedge funds are notoriously secretive. They also have a wide range of strategies from long term activists to high turnover stat-arb funds. So finding good average trading data is hard.This paper suggests that equity hedge fund leverage could be around two times. That puts gross assets are closer to $2 trillion, although short interest data suggests that a lot of hedge funds actually short with ETFs (reducing stock trading). Other data suggests some hedge funds lever up during the day.Other sources suggest hedge fund turnover is between 120% and 200% per annum, which implies an average hold time for each stock of less than one year.Some funds likely trade much more intraday and minimize overnight exposures (increasing stock trading), but we classify them as intermediation liquidity in Table 1, rather than as a strategy used by natural investors.Using these conservative estimates:Hedge fund trading = $1 trillion in assets x (2 leverage x 2 sides) x 200% turnover = $9 trillion in liquidity each year= $36 billion/day or 8% of all liquidity.What about ETFs?With ETF liquidity of $176 billion per day (both sides) in 2019, it is easy to say they cause a lot of stock trading, but that’s not true. There are three types of ETF liquidity:ETFs as mutual funds: Just like other mutual funds, their portfolio will turnover as indexes change. However, most ETF assets are in index-style portfolios where turnover by the portfolio manager is limited. Consequently, we have included these in the mutual fund turnover metrics in the mutual funds section above.ETF trading: ETFs are their own ticker. An investor trading an ETF usually has nothing to do with underlying company stocks. In many QQQ trades, both the buyer and seller usually represent traders choosing ETFs because they are a cheaper way to gain portfolio exposure.ETF to stock arbitrage: Only authorized participants have the ability to arbitrage between the ETF and the stocks. We classify them as intermediaries (not naturals) and discuss their impact on stock liquidity later.What proportion of professional investors trade in dark pools?All of the categories above could be considered “professional investors.” They are likely to use brokers’ algorithms to work orders in the market. As a whole, these professional investors (mutual, international, pension and ETF funds) represent almost 60% of all investor assets, but just 23% of all liquidity.We also know that brokers route their orders through dark pools—and we know that dark pools represent around 12% of all liquidity.Even with market makers in dark pools, the math shows that professional investors execute a material proportion of their trades in dark pools, possibly 30% or more.What about retail?Retail trading grew significantly in 2020 to around 20% of the market. However, even in 2019, with 15% of all trades being retail, they represented a meaningful amount of “investor” liquidity.However, the way people refer to retail market share overstates their contribution to liquidity for two reasons:Each retail trade represents a buyer or seller, so they are on one side of 15% of sharesRetail tends to trade lower-priced stocks (see Chart 7). Using non-ATS TRF data by ticker, we estimate their contribution to value traded is actually 15% lower.That adds to closer to $30 billion each day in 2019, or just over 6% of all liquidity.Chart 7: Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks more, reducing their contribution to notional liquidityWhere do Naturals trade?So far, we have accounted for around 93% of assets but less than 30% of all liquidity.That’s less than all the liquidity that trades off-exchange. With dark pools representing 12% of all trades and other off exchange adding to 29% of all trades.That seems to indicate that a material proportion of naturals execute off-exchange – even though they rely on the exchanges for efficient prices and tight spreads. Ironically that makes the role of intermediaries, and competitive quotes on exchanges, even more important to the whole ecosystem. (It’s also a reason to reward the public market for sharing price data – but that’s a topic for another day)Chart 8: These calculations indicate natural investors rely on exchanges for efficient prices but do a large proportion of trading off exchangesWhat about the rest?The breakdown for the other 70% of liquidity is much harder to support with public data, but our estimates show this is where specialist liquidity providers step in to keep markets and spreads efficient.It includes a lot of different strategies, from two-sided liquidity provision to cross market arbitrage to statistical arbitrage strategies, all targeting short-term mispricing caused by other traders.Their size in the U.S. market is a testament to low transaction costs, which allow for risk to be transferred via one or more additional trades. It is also a result of fragmentation and segmentation that increases facilitated trades.Here our estimates are based on less hard data but inferred from other levels of activity. To see how intermediaries could add to 70% of liquidity, consider:Wholesaler facilitation: Each retail trade facilitated off-exchange has a wholesaler on the other side. So the intermediation doubles the liquidity recorded (totaling 13% of all liquidity). However, TRF data shows the major wholesalers actually print trades representing closer to 25% of all liquidity, or about $117 billion per day. That additional 12% of all liquidity represents $57 billion, and likely trades with institutional investors or even other brokers.Equity futures traded around $620 billion each day in 2019, even more liquidity than the whole underlying U.S. stock market (Chart 9). S&P 500 Futures spreads are tight, at 0.8 basis points (bps), and there are arbitrage opportunities with SPY ETFs at 0.4bps and underlying portfolio at 4bps. Given stocks are the most expensive, it’s likely that most futures trades do NOT cause stocks to trade. But if just 5% of futures trading led to stock arbitrage, that would account for around $31bn/day or 7% of all stock liquidity, almost all in S&P500 stocks.ETF arbitrage:As discussed above, some “authorized participants” are able to convert rich stocks into cheaper ETFs and vice versa, a critical market function that keeps ETFs fairly priced for investors. However, ETF spreads are often so cheap that there are no arbitrage opportunities. Industry estimates peg the amount of trading that is ETF arbitrage at between 4% and 10% of ETF trading. If that’s the case, then ETF arbitrage contributes around $11 billion per day in liquidity, of just 2% of all liquidity. That’s consistent with the average creations plus redemptions per day (Chart 9), although that also includes many non-U.S. equity ETFs.Chart 9: ETF creations are a fraction of ETF liquidity, which is a fraction of stock liquidity, which itself is a fraction of equity futures liquidityOptions markets require initial hedges and constant delta hedging. Notional trading of stock options totals $221 billion per day. If just 30% of notional leads to stock hedges and arbitrage, that translates to $66 billion per day, or 14% of liquidity.Market makers’ purpose is to provide two-sided liquidity, not hold stocks long or short. They make money by accurately pricing the spread, and investors benefit from instantaneous liquidity on market orders. Given how few natural investors actually trade on-exchange, it’s more likely than many expect that the quotes on the screen are in fact market makers intermediating trades. If market makers provide liquidity on one side of every second trade on-exchange, that would add to around 16% in total liquidity.Opportunistic traders: Some traders run arbitrage strategies that correct mispricing, often by taking liquidity. We note that this paper suggests hedge funds made up as much as 30% of all trades, almost double our estimate above. That’s likely because traders with short-term mispricing strategies and small overnight balance, like statistical arbitrage, are excluded from our estimates above. These traders provide important risk transfers, even though there are little overnight positions or leverage. Given liquidity providers make up 16%, it’s possible these taker strategies add to 8% of all liquidity, or $37 billion per day.That still leaves us with a pretty large “other” category, at least from the perspective of natural investors. However, there are many other trading and hedging strategies we don’t know much about. For example, hedge funds also buy swaps and OTC options contracts from banks who still need to hedge their risk. Without data on the size of those markets, it’s difficult to estimate their impact on stock trading, but their gamma could even explain some of the growth in market-on-close trading.It’s also possible some of our intermediation estimates are off by at least this amount (given the lack of real data to reconcile to).Chart 10: Naturals hold most assets, but intermediation makes up most of the tradingWhat does this teach us?We would love to have more data to refine our results. But even as they stand, it helps us understand the role of each participant, bringing liquidity and price efficiency to the ecosystem. The data also busts some common myths:Index funds don’t trade much at all, which means they can’t permanently distort prices either.Price discovery comes from active funds and hedge funds.Informed trading overwhelms index fund inflows.Lots of other participants specialize in risk transfer, from futures arbitrage to statistical arbitrage to classic market making. By process of elimination, these participants may trade even more than all the natural investors combined. But having all this competition for lit trading is also critical to the rest of the market who rely on tight spreads and instant liquidity.The key takeaway though is that very low costs to trade in the U.S. allow so many specialists to play a role in keeping markets efficient. Rather than degrading market quality, all the competition for marginally profitable trades translates into more liquidity and tighter spreads for investors, which in turn leads to more attractive valuations for issuers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":316668562,"gmtCreate":1611931228656,"gmtModify":1704866123346,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jy","listText":"Jy","text":"Jy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316668562","repostId":"1181933127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181933127","pubTimestamp":1611913647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181933127?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-29 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181933127","media":"Yahoo finance","summary":"Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investor","content":"<p>Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.</p>\n<p>Among the 1,200-odd firms listed in mainland China that issued preliminary results in January, 75% have said earnings rose last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Thursday. Firms in the communication services and health care sectors are set to report the biggest growth, followed by consumer staples and technology. Listed companies have until Sunday to announce significant changes in earnings.</p>\n<p>Evidence of China Inc.’s resilience to the slowest economic growth in four decades due to the coronavirus, capped by a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, may offer relief to investors. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest firms in China, has dropped 4.4% the past three days from a 13-year high, raising worries that a near-term peak has been reached. That lost momentum came as the central bank withdraws liquidity and a central bank adviser warned of asset bubbles.</p>\n<p>“The stock rally we’ve seen this year has been obviously driven by liquidity -- now it needs fundamental reasons to be sustainable,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “The market needs the actual results to be even better than the estimates we’ve had so far to keep rallying.”</p>\n<p>China’s exchange operators require companies that are expected to record losses, to turn from losses to profit, or to see income rise by more than 50% to issue preliminary guidance by the end of January. There are more than 4,000 companies listed in the mainland overall, and most are scheduled to release official numbers in March. Among the forecasters, Sansure Biotech Inc. estimated profit soared as much as 7,257% last year while Hengtong Logistics Co. predicted earnings surged as much as 4,673% from 2019’s level.</p>\n<p>Forecasts have helped boost many Chinese stocks to start 2020. Bank shares jumped earlier this month after China Merchants Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. reported stronger-than-expected preliminary 2020 earnings. Muyuan Foods Co. also surged after its forecast on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Companies’ estimates have been far rosier than what analysts have been expecting. According to Bloomberg data, 2020 profit among CSI 300 members are expected to have fallen an average 7.7%. That would be the first decline in four years.</p>\n<p>(Corrects percentage in second paragraph)</p>\n<p>For more articles like this, please visit us atbloomberg.com</p>\n<p>Subscribe nowto stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 17:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html><strong>Yahoo finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.\nAmong the 1,200-odd firms listed in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181933127","content_text":"Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.\nAmong the 1,200-odd firms listed in mainland China that issued preliminary results in January, 75% have said earnings rose last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Thursday. Firms in the communication services and health care sectors are set to report the biggest growth, followed by consumer staples and technology. Listed companies have until Sunday to announce significant changes in earnings.\nEvidence of China Inc.’s resilience to the slowest economic growth in four decades due to the coronavirus, capped by a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, may offer relief to investors. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest firms in China, has dropped 4.4% the past three days from a 13-year high, raising worries that a near-term peak has been reached. That lost momentum came as the central bank withdraws liquidity and a central bank adviser warned of asset bubbles.\n“The stock rally we’ve seen this year has been obviously driven by liquidity -- now it needs fundamental reasons to be sustainable,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “The market needs the actual results to be even better than the estimates we’ve had so far to keep rallying.”\nChina’s exchange operators require companies that are expected to record losses, to turn from losses to profit, or to see income rise by more than 50% to issue preliminary guidance by the end of January. There are more than 4,000 companies listed in the mainland overall, and most are scheduled to release official numbers in March. Among the forecasters, Sansure Biotech Inc. estimated profit soared as much as 7,257% last year while Hengtong Logistics Co. predicted earnings surged as much as 4,673% from 2019’s level.\nForecasts have helped boost many Chinese stocks to start 2020. Bank shares jumped earlier this month after China Merchants Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. reported stronger-than-expected preliminary 2020 earnings. Muyuan Foods Co. also surged after its forecast on Tuesday.\nCompanies’ estimates have been far rosier than what analysts have been expecting. According to Bloomberg data, 2020 profit among CSI 300 members are expected to have fallen an average 7.7%. That would be the first decline in four years.\n(Corrects percentage in second paragraph)\nFor more articles like this, please visit us atbloomberg.com\nSubscribe nowto stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":316668562,"gmtCreate":1611931228656,"gmtModify":1704866123346,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jy","listText":"Jy","text":"Jy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/316668562","repostId":"1181933127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181933127","pubTimestamp":1611913647,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181933127?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-29 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"China Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181933127","media":"Yahoo finance","summary":"Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investor","content":"<p>Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.</p>\n<p>Among the 1,200-odd firms listed in mainland China that issued preliminary results in January, 75% have said earnings rose last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Thursday. Firms in the communication services and health care sectors are set to report the biggest growth, followed by consumer staples and technology. Listed companies have until Sunday to announce significant changes in earnings.</p>\n<p>Evidence of China Inc.’s resilience to the slowest economic growth in four decades due to the coronavirus, capped by a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, may offer relief to investors. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest firms in China, has dropped 4.4% the past three days from a 13-year high, raising worries that a near-term peak has been reached. That lost momentum came as the central bank withdraws liquidity and a central bank adviser warned of asset bubbles.</p>\n<p>“The stock rally we’ve seen this year has been obviously driven by liquidity -- now it needs fundamental reasons to be sustainable,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “The market needs the actual results to be even better than the estimates we’ve had so far to keep rallying.”</p>\n<p>China’s exchange operators require companies that are expected to record losses, to turn from losses to profit, or to see income rise by more than 50% to issue preliminary guidance by the end of January. There are more than 4,000 companies listed in the mainland overall, and most are scheduled to release official numbers in March. Among the forecasters, Sansure Biotech Inc. estimated profit soared as much as 7,257% last year while Hengtong Logistics Co. predicted earnings surged as much as 4,673% from 2019’s level.</p>\n<p>Forecasts have helped boost many Chinese stocks to start 2020. Bank shares jumped earlier this month after China Merchants Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. reported stronger-than-expected preliminary 2020 earnings. Muyuan Foods Co. also surged after its forecast on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Companies’ estimates have been far rosier than what analysts have been expecting. According to Bloomberg data, 2020 profit among CSI 300 members are expected to have fallen an average 7.7%. That would be the first decline in four years.</p>\n<p>(Corrects percentage in second paragraph)</p>\n<p>For more articles like this, please visit us atbloomberg.com</p>\n<p>Subscribe nowto stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Starts Earnings With 9 in 10 Firms Expecting Higher Profit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 17:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html><strong>Yahoo finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.\nAmong the 1,200-odd firms listed in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-starts-earnings-9-10-200000779.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181933127","content_text":"Hundreds of Chinese companies are set to report an improvement in annual earnings, offering investors a stronger fundamental backdrop after stocks sank this week.\nAmong the 1,200-odd firms listed in mainland China that issued preliminary results in January, 75% have said earnings rose last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of Thursday. Firms in the communication services and health care sectors are set to report the biggest growth, followed by consumer staples and technology. Listed companies have until Sunday to announce significant changes in earnings.\nEvidence of China Inc.’s resilience to the slowest economic growth in four decades due to the coronavirus, capped by a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, may offer relief to investors. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest firms in China, has dropped 4.4% the past three days from a 13-year high, raising worries that a near-term peak has been reached. That lost momentum came as the central bank withdraws liquidity and a central bank adviser warned of asset bubbles.\n“The stock rally we’ve seen this year has been obviously driven by liquidity -- now it needs fundamental reasons to be sustainable,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “The market needs the actual results to be even better than the estimates we’ve had so far to keep rallying.”\nChina’s exchange operators require companies that are expected to record losses, to turn from losses to profit, or to see income rise by more than 50% to issue preliminary guidance by the end of January. There are more than 4,000 companies listed in the mainland overall, and most are scheduled to release official numbers in March. Among the forecasters, Sansure Biotech Inc. estimated profit soared as much as 7,257% last year while Hengtong Logistics Co. predicted earnings surged as much as 4,673% from 2019’s level.\nForecasts have helped boost many Chinese stocks to start 2020. Bank shares jumped earlier this month after China Merchants Bank Co. and Industrial Bank Co. reported stronger-than-expected preliminary 2020 earnings. Muyuan Foods Co. also surged after its forecast on Tuesday.\nCompanies’ estimates have been far rosier than what analysts have been expecting. According to Bloomberg data, 2020 profit among CSI 300 members are expected to have fallen an average 7.7%. That would be the first decline in four years.\n(Corrects percentage in second paragraph)\nFor more articles like this, please visit us atbloomberg.com\nSubscribe nowto stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","text":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation","html":"Finally, when you first post [compare heart] [compare heart] post, you can get more exposure by related stocks or related topics. If you want to create high-quality articles, please checkGuidelines for Tiger Community Creation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312913359,"gmtCreate":1611989287771,"gmtModify":1704866838656,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312913359","repostId":"1131015158","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131015158","pubTimestamp":1611902095,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131015158?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-01-29 14:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Who is Trading on U.S. Markets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131015158","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year","content":"<p>The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).</p><p>As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 trillion, representing nearly 40% of totalglobal marketcapitalization. On an average day in 2019, trading in company stocks (excluding ETPs) adds to $233 billion. That results in turnover, multiplied by a company’s market cap trades each year, which is more than double what we see in Asia or Europe.</p><p>Better liquidity for all companies should result in&nbsp;lower trading costs&nbsp;for investors and lower&nbsp;costs of capital&nbsp;for issuers.</p><p><b>Chart 1: The U.S. equity market is the most liquid in the world (2019 data shown)</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750bf1eaa39bf5912710666180423d55\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Which raises a question: “Who is doing all this U.S. stock trading?”</p><p>The answer isn’t obvious, as very little trading is attributed to counterparties in public data sources. But using a number of sources, the estimates we create below show that all the participants in the&nbsp;U.S. markets ecosystem&nbsp;have different and important roles to play. These different players keep trading spreads low and prices efficient, and transfer liquidity between markets rapidly and cheaply.</p><p><b>Chart 2: The U.S. market ecosystem shows lots of participants contribute to liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6184c14291f0a33d44ed198bce806821\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Our estimates are shown below in Table 1. But there are a few things to highlight before we get going:</p><ul><li>Liquidity is relevant to both buyers&nbsp;<i>and</i>&nbsp;And risk is hedged in dollars, not shares. So we look at the value of&nbsp;<i>gross</i>&nbsp;liquidity (trades x 2). So&nbsp;<i>trading</i>&nbsp;of $233 billion per day actually represents&nbsp;<i>liquidity</i>&nbsp;of double that, or $466 billion per day.</li><li>Because most of the data from 2020 isn’t available yet, we’re basing these estimates on 2019 trading and assets. Total liquidity in 2020 actually increased 50% to almost $700 billion per day, thanks to an increase in retail trading and volatility caused by COVID-19.</li><li>Public data becomes harder and harder to find the more we progress down the list in Table 1. Accordingly, our estimates would increasingly adjust once more data becomes available.</li><li>We don’t include ETF trading, even though they are&nbsp;NMS stocks, which would add another $88 billion per day, or $176 billion in liquidity.</li></ul><p>We also try to separate our estimates by strategies available to investors (“natural” investors) and those deployed by liquidity providers (intermediators).</p><p><b>Table 1: Estimating who contributes to market liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7e8a9db500a8d200aab6a55764908f\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>So, let’s walk through how we arrived at these estimates.</p><p><b>How much do investors trade?</b></p><p>As Chart 3 shows, investors represent a small section of the market ecosystem, although data shows that they own the majority of stock market capital.</p><p>Around two-thirds of corporate shares are owned by U.S. households via mutual funds (22%), pension funds (11%) or retail brokerage (34%) accounts. And an additional 16% are owned by foreign investors, likely mostly through professionally managed investments too.</p><p><b>Chart 3: Ownership of U.S. stocks</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ec9c7de9bf77f18a31094ba470b364\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>How much do mutual funds trade?</b></p><p>Let’s start with professionally managed investments: mutual funds (domestic and international), ETFs and pensions. We know their assets are around $21.2 trillion (Chart 3).</p><p>ICI tracks the&nbsp;average turnover&nbsp;of all mutual funds. Their data shows that average turnover has been steadily declining for most of the past 35 years and now sits below 30% per annum each side.</p><p>Some of the decline is due to the rise in index funds. As we discuss below, they have a much&nbsp;lower turnover. Even when we account for that, we estimate active trading has still fallen to around 47% each side, equating to longer average hold times even in active institutional accounts.</p><p><b>Chart 4: Mutual fund turnover has declined to around 30%</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5b070aeac70dd7d00d369f1f131dda\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Knowing that mutual funds tend to stay close to fully invested, we know that their buys are likely offset by sells, so turnover will result in a two-sided trade. Doing the math:</p><p>Mutual fund trading = $21.1 trillion in assets x 28% turnover x 2 sides</p><p>= $47.2 billion per day, or less than 10% of liquidity.</p><p>This total is somewhat understated as ICI doesn’t include cash inflows and outflows. If gross cash flows are (say) half the size again of trades, that would lead to around $70 billion in liquidity each day, or just 15% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>Index funds trade much (much) less</b></p><p>One of the common myths of liquidity is that because index funds have such large assets and consistent inflows, they also do a lot of trading, which also distorts prices.</p><p>The truth is very different. In fact,&nbsp;BlackRock&nbsp;estimated in 2017 that for every $1 in index trading, there was more than $20 in active trading.</p><p>That’s because index funds are designed to do very little trading. Once an index portfolio buys an index weight holding of a stock, in principle, they don’t have to trade it ever again. As the price of the stock rises, so does its weight in the index and in the portfolio, and the portfolio tracks the performance of the index perfectly. That should make index funds some of the longest-term holders of stocks in the market.</p><p>In the real world, some trading is required. As companies raise more capital or buy back stock, index funds also need to adjust holdings. IPOs, mergers and price changes can also cause stocks to be added and deleted from indexes, also requiring the index portfolio to trade. But index providers tend to do that infrequently. In fact,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 turnover&nbsp;is estimated at around 4.4%, a statistic consistent with Credit Suisse’s estimates for the annual Russell 1000 reconstitution of just 3% over recent years.</p><p>Although small-cap indexes see higher turnover as their largest holdings are often promoted to large-cap indexes during the year. For example, Credit Suisse also estimates turnover in the small-cap Russell 2000 is much higher at around 20%.</p><p>In addition, because index funds are focused on replicating their index, not trying to beat it, they tend to trade exactly when the index trades. That means almost all their trading happens at the close.</p><p>Interestingly, despite their sizable assets, Credit Suisse’s index team estimated that all U.S. index funds traded&nbsp;just over $300 billion&nbsp;in 2019, including adds and deletes (both buys and sells). The&nbsp;BlackRock&nbsp;study of 2017 estimated that index funds traded $460 billion annually. Even this higher turnover estimate means index funds make up less than 0.5% of all liquidity in the stock market.</p><p>Because indexes themselves tend to minimize their rebalances, we also see that there are nine dates each year when index funds do&nbsp;most of their trading. Data suggests that index funds are around 40% of all trading on index rebalance dates, but cash flows that occur on other days add to less than 5% of close volume, hardly enough to impact price discovery.</p><p><b>Chart 5: Trading in the close higher on index rebalance dates</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2fcee6a01b19149c5c43f4810606571\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That leaves active funds providing almost all of the $70 trillion in mutual fund liquidity, and basically to 100% of intraday trading and price discovery done by mutual funds.</p><p>There are two important points to note about this. Even though index funds are large:</p><ul><li>Their turnover is low, making them even longer-term holders than active investors.</li><li>Their contribution to price discovery (or price distortions, as some claim) is muted.</li></ul><p><b>Chart 6: Index funds have grown to around 40% of all mutual fund assets</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f847fbcbc3db0bbe61eb12fe1b10d8a7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Hedge funds have fewer assets but higher turnover</b></p><p>Based on&nbsp;estimates, hedge funds hold around 3% of total corporate equities. This translates into roughly $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM). However, most hedge funds are both levered and operating higher turnover (lower hold time) strategies, which increases the liquidity they supply to the market.</p><p>Hedge funds are notoriously secretive. They also have a wide range of strategies from long term activists to high turnover stat-arb funds. So finding good average trading data is hard.</p><ul><li>This paper&nbsp;suggests that equity hedge fund leverage could be around two times. That puts gross assets are closer to $2 trillion, although&nbsp;short interest data&nbsp;suggests that a lot of hedge funds actually short with ETFs (reducing stock trading). Other data suggests some hedge funds lever up during the day.</li><li>Other sources suggest hedge fund turnover is between&nbsp;120%&nbsp;and&nbsp;200%&nbsp;per annum, which implies an average hold time for each stock of less than one year.</li><li>Some funds likely trade much more intraday and minimize overnight exposures (increasing stock trading), but we classify them as intermediation liquidity in Table 1, rather than as a strategy used by natural investors.</li></ul><p>Using these conservative estimates:</p><p>Hedge fund trading = $1 trillion in assets x (2 leverage x 2 sides) x 200% turnover = $9 trillion in liquidity each year</p><p>= $36 billion/day or 8% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>What about ETFs?</b></p><p>With&nbsp;ETF liquidity of $176 billion per day&nbsp;(both sides) in 2019, it is easy to say they cause a lot of stock trading, but that’s not true. There are three types of ETF liquidity:</p><ol><li><b>ETFs as mutual funds:</b>&nbsp;Just like other mutual funds, their portfolio will turnover as indexes change. However, most ETF assets are in index-style portfolios where turnover by the portfolio manager is limited. Consequently, we have included these in the mutual fund turnover metrics in the mutual funds section above.</li><li><b>ETF trading:</b>&nbsp;ETFs are their own ticker. An investor trading an ETF&nbsp;usually has nothing to do&nbsp;with underlying company stocks. In many QQQ trades, both the buyer and seller usually represent traders choosing ETFs because they are a cheaper way to gain portfolio exposure.</li><li><b>ETF to stock arbitrage</b>: Only authorized participants have the ability to arbitrage between the ETF and the stocks. We classify them as intermediaries (not naturals) and discuss their impact on stock liquidity later.</li></ol><p><b>What proportion of professional investors trade in dark pools?</b></p><p>All of the categories above could be considered “professional investors.” They are likely to use&nbsp;brokers’ algorithms&nbsp;to work orders in the market. As a whole, these professional investors (mutual, international, pension and ETF funds) represent almost 60% of all investor assets, but just 23% of all liquidity.</p><p>We also know that brokers route their orders through dark pools—and we know that&nbsp;dark pools represent around 12%&nbsp;of all liquidity.</p><p>Even with market makers in dark pools, the math shows that professional investors execute a material proportion of their trades in dark pools, possibly 30% or more.</p><p><b>What about retail?</b></p><p>Retail trading grew significantly in 2020 to&nbsp;around 20%&nbsp;of the market. However, even in 2019, with 15% of all trades being retail, they represented a meaningful amount of “investor” liquidity.</p><p>However, the way people refer to retail market share overstates their contribution to liquidity for two reasons:</p><ol><li>Each retail trade represents a buyer&nbsp;<i>or</i>&nbsp;seller, so they are on one side of 15% of&nbsp;<i>shares</i></li><li>Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks (see Chart 7). Using non-ATS TRF data by ticker, we estimate their contribution to&nbsp;<i>value</i>&nbsp;traded is actually 15% lower.</li></ol><p>That adds to closer to $30 billion each day in 2019, or just over 6% of all liquidity.</p><p><b>Chart 7: Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks more, reducing their contribution to notional liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb7571f7a20913204cd900b55773c47\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Where do Naturals trade?</b></p><p>So far, we have accounted for around 93% of assets but less than 30% of all liquidity.</p><p>That’s less than all the liquidity that trades off-exchange. With dark pools representing 12% of all trades and other off exchange adding to 29% of all trades.</p><p>That seems to indicate that a material proportion of naturals execute off-exchange – even though they rely on the exchanges for efficient prices and tight spreads. Ironically that makes the role of intermediaries, and competitive quotes on exchanges, even more important to the whole ecosystem. (It’s also a reason to reward the public market for sharing price data – but that’s a topic for another day)</p><p><b>Chart 8: These calculations indicate natural investors rely on exchanges for efficient prices but do a large proportion of trading off exchanges</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8a0508b17c8db1f9b8a96b973225c11\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"769\"></p><p><b>What about the rest?</b></p><p>The breakdown for the other 70% of liquidity is much harder to support with public data, but our estimates show this is where specialist liquidity providers step in to keep markets and spreads efficient.</p><p>It includes a lot of different strategies, from two-sided liquidity provision to cross market arbitrage to statistical arbitrage strategies, all targeting short-term mispricing caused by other traders.</p><p>Their size in the U.S. market is a testament to low transaction costs, which allow for risk to be transferred via one or more additional trades. It is also a result of fragmentation and segmentation that increases facilitated trades.</p><p>Here our estimates are based on less hard data but inferred from other levels of activity. To see how intermediaries could add to 70% of liquidity, consider:</p><ul><li><b>Wholesaler facilitation</b>: Each&nbsp;retail trade facilitated off-exchange&nbsp;has a wholesaler on the other side. So the intermediation doubles the liquidity recorded (totaling 13% of all liquidity). However, TRF data shows the major wholesalers actually print trades representing closer to 25% of all liquidity, or about $117 billion per day. That additional 12% of all liquidity represents $57 billion, and likely trades with institutional investors or even other brokers.</li><li><b>Equity futures</b>&nbsp;traded around $620 billion each day in 2019, even more liquidity than the whole underlying U.S. stock market (Chart 9). S&amp;P 500 Futures spreads are tight, at 0.8 basis points (bps), and there are arbitrage opportunities with SPY ETFs at 0.4bps and underlying portfolio at 4bps. Given stocks are the most expensive, it’s likely that most futures trades do NOT cause stocks to trade. But if just 5% of futures trading led to stock arbitrage, that would account for around $31bn/day or 7% of all stock liquidity, almost all in S&amp;P500 stocks.</li><li><b>ETF arbitrage:</b>As discussed above, some “authorized participants” are able to convert rich stocks into cheaper ETFs and vice versa, a critical market function that keeps ETFs fairly priced for investors. However, ETF spreads are&nbsp;often so cheap&nbsp;that there are no arbitrage opportunities. Industry estimates peg the amount of trading that is ETF arbitrage at&nbsp;between 4% and 10% of ETF trading. If that’s the case, then ETF arbitrage contributes around $11 billion per day in liquidity, of just 2% of all liquidity. That’s consistent with the average creations plus redemptions per day (Chart 9), although that also includes many non-U.S. equity ETFs.</li></ul><p><b>Chart 9: ETF creations are a fraction of ETF liquidity, which is a fraction of stock liquidity, which itself is a fraction of equity futures liquidity</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12186b4f2fe4046cb66be42b3a4428cf\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><ul><li><b>Options</b>&nbsp;markets require initial hedges and constant delta hedging. Notional trading of stock options totals $221 billion per day. If just 30% of notional leads to stock hedges and arbitrage, that translates to $66 billion per day, or 14% of liquidity.</li><li><b>Market makers’</b>&nbsp;purpose is to provide two-sided liquidity, not hold stocks long or short. They make money by accurately pricing the spread, and investors benefit from instantaneous liquidity on market orders. Given how few natural investors actually trade on-exchange, it’s more likely than many expect that the quotes on the screen are in fact market makers intermediating trades. If market makers provide liquidity on one side of every second trade on-exchange, that would add to around 16% in total liquidity.</li><li><b>Opportunistic traders:</b>&nbsp;Some traders run arbitrage strategies that correct mispricing, often by taking liquidity. We note that&nbsp;this paper&nbsp;suggests hedge funds made up as much as 30% of all trades, almost double our estimate above. That’s likely because traders with short-term mispricing strategies and small overnight balance, like statistical arbitrage, are excluded from our estimates above. These traders provide important risk transfers, even though there are little overnight positions or leverage. Given liquidity providers make up 16%, it’s possible these taker strategies add to 8% of all liquidity, or $37 billion per day.</li></ul><p>That still leaves us with a pretty large “other” category, at least from the perspective of natural investors. However, there are many other trading and hedging strategies we don’t know much about. For example, hedge funds also buy swaps and OTC options contracts from banks who still need to hedge their risk. Without data on the size of those markets, it’s difficult to estimate their impact on stock trading, but their gamma could even explain some of the growth in market-on-close trading.</p><p>It’s also possible some of our intermediation estimates are off by at least this amount (given the lack of real data to reconcile to).</p><p><b>Chart 10: Naturals hold most assets, but intermediation makes up most of the trading</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5433155e6e58652d046d387c3c7bc1f6\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>What does this teach us?</b></p><p>We would love to have more data to refine our results. But even as they stand, it helps us understand the role of each participant, bringing liquidity and price efficiency to the ecosystem. The data also busts some common myths:</p><ul><li><b>Index funds don’t trade much at all</b>, which means they can’t permanently distort prices either.</li><li><b>Price discovery comes from active funds and hedge funds.</b>Informed trading overwhelms index fund inflows.</li><li><b>Lots of other participants specialize in risk transfer</b>, from futures arbitrage to statistical arbitrage to classic market making. By process of elimination, these participants may trade even more than all the natural investors combined. But having all this competition for lit trading is also critical to the rest of the market who rely on tight spreads and instant liquidity.</li></ul><p>The key takeaway though is that very low costs to trade in the U.S. allow so many specialists to play a role in keeping markets efficient. Rather than degrading market quality, all the competition for marginally profitable trades translates into more liquidity and tighter spreads for investors, which in turn leads to&nbsp;more attractive valuations&nbsp;for issuers.</p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is Trading on U.S. Markets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is Trading on U.S. Markets?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-29 14:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-is-trading-on-u.s.-markets-2021-01-28","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131015158","content_text":"The U.S. equity market is the largest and most liquid stock market in the world (Chart 1).As of year-end 2019, the market cap of publicly traded companies listed in the U.S. totaled almost $38 trillion, representing nearly 40% of totalglobal marketcapitalization. On an average day in 2019, trading in company stocks (excluding ETPs) adds to $233 billion. That results in turnover, multiplied by a company’s market cap trades each year, which is more than double what we see in Asia or Europe.Better liquidity for all companies should result in lower trading costs for investors and lower costs of capital for issuers.Chart 1: The U.S. equity market is the most liquid in the world (2019 data shown)Which raises a question: “Who is doing all this U.S. stock trading?”The answer isn’t obvious, as very little trading is attributed to counterparties in public data sources. But using a number of sources, the estimates we create below show that all the participants in the U.S. markets ecosystem have different and important roles to play. These different players keep trading spreads low and prices efficient, and transfer liquidity between markets rapidly and cheaply.Chart 2: The U.S. market ecosystem shows lots of participants contribute to liquidityOur estimates are shown below in Table 1. But there are a few things to highlight before we get going:Liquidity is relevant to both buyers and And risk is hedged in dollars, not shares. So we look at the value of gross liquidity (trades x 2). So trading of $233 billion per day actually represents liquidity of double that, or $466 billion per day.Because most of the data from 2020 isn’t available yet, we’re basing these estimates on 2019 trading and assets. Total liquidity in 2020 actually increased 50% to almost $700 billion per day, thanks to an increase in retail trading and volatility caused by COVID-19.Public data becomes harder and harder to find the more we progress down the list in Table 1. Accordingly, our estimates would increasingly adjust once more data becomes available.We don’t include ETF trading, even though they are NMS stocks, which would add another $88 billion per day, or $176 billion in liquidity.We also try to separate our estimates by strategies available to investors (“natural” investors) and those deployed by liquidity providers (intermediators).Table 1: Estimating who contributes to market liquiditySo, let’s walk through how we arrived at these estimates.How much do investors trade?As Chart 3 shows, investors represent a small section of the market ecosystem, although data shows that they own the majority of stock market capital.Around two-thirds of corporate shares are owned by U.S. households via mutual funds (22%), pension funds (11%) or retail brokerage (34%) accounts. And an additional 16% are owned by foreign investors, likely mostly through professionally managed investments too.Chart 3: Ownership of U.S. stocksHow much do mutual funds trade?Let’s start with professionally managed investments: mutual funds (domestic and international), ETFs and pensions. We know their assets are around $21.2 trillion (Chart 3).ICI tracks the average turnover of all mutual funds. Their data shows that average turnover has been steadily declining for most of the past 35 years and now sits below 30% per annum each side.Some of the decline is due to the rise in index funds. As we discuss below, they have a much lower turnover. Even when we account for that, we estimate active trading has still fallen to around 47% each side, equating to longer average hold times even in active institutional accounts.Chart 4: Mutual fund turnover has declined to around 30%Knowing that mutual funds tend to stay close to fully invested, we know that their buys are likely offset by sells, so turnover will result in a two-sided trade. Doing the math:Mutual fund trading = $21.1 trillion in assets x 28% turnover x 2 sides= $47.2 billion per day, or less than 10% of liquidity.This total is somewhat understated as ICI doesn’t include cash inflows and outflows. If gross cash flows are (say) half the size again of trades, that would lead to around $70 billion in liquidity each day, or just 15% of all liquidity.Index funds trade much (much) lessOne of the common myths of liquidity is that because index funds have such large assets and consistent inflows, they also do a lot of trading, which also distorts prices.The truth is very different. In fact, BlackRock estimated in 2017 that for every $1 in index trading, there was more than $20 in active trading.That’s because index funds are designed to do very little trading. Once an index portfolio buys an index weight holding of a stock, in principle, they don’t have to trade it ever again. As the price of the stock rises, so does its weight in the index and in the portfolio, and the portfolio tracks the performance of the index perfectly. That should make index funds some of the longest-term holders of stocks in the market.In the real world, some trading is required. As companies raise more capital or buy back stock, index funds also need to adjust holdings. IPOs, mergers and price changes can also cause stocks to be added and deleted from indexes, also requiring the index portfolio to trade. But index providers tend to do that infrequently. In fact, S&P 500 turnover is estimated at around 4.4%, a statistic consistent with Credit Suisse’s estimates for the annual Russell 1000 reconstitution of just 3% over recent years.Although small-cap indexes see higher turnover as their largest holdings are often promoted to large-cap indexes during the year. For example, Credit Suisse also estimates turnover in the small-cap Russell 2000 is much higher at around 20%.In addition, because index funds are focused on replicating their index, not trying to beat it, they tend to trade exactly when the index trades. That means almost all their trading happens at the close.Interestingly, despite their sizable assets, Credit Suisse’s index team estimated that all U.S. index funds traded just over $300 billion in 2019, including adds and deletes (both buys and sells). The BlackRock study of 2017 estimated that index funds traded $460 billion annually. Even this higher turnover estimate means index funds make up less than 0.5% of all liquidity in the stock market.Because indexes themselves tend to minimize their rebalances, we also see that there are nine dates each year when index funds do most of their trading. Data suggests that index funds are around 40% of all trading on index rebalance dates, but cash flows that occur on other days add to less than 5% of close volume, hardly enough to impact price discovery.Chart 5: Trading in the close higher on index rebalance datesThat leaves active funds providing almost all of the $70 trillion in mutual fund liquidity, and basically to 100% of intraday trading and price discovery done by mutual funds.There are two important points to note about this. Even though index funds are large:Their turnover is low, making them even longer-term holders than active investors.Their contribution to price discovery (or price distortions, as some claim) is muted.Chart 6: Index funds have grown to around 40% of all mutual fund assetsHedge funds have fewer assets but higher turnoverBased on estimates, hedge funds hold around 3% of total corporate equities. This translates into roughly $1 trillion in assets under management (AUM). However, most hedge funds are both levered and operating higher turnover (lower hold time) strategies, which increases the liquidity they supply to the market.Hedge funds are notoriously secretive. They also have a wide range of strategies from long term activists to high turnover stat-arb funds. So finding good average trading data is hard.This paper suggests that equity hedge fund leverage could be around two times. That puts gross assets are closer to $2 trillion, although short interest data suggests that a lot of hedge funds actually short with ETFs (reducing stock trading). Other data suggests some hedge funds lever up during the day.Other sources suggest hedge fund turnover is between 120% and 200% per annum, which implies an average hold time for each stock of less than one year.Some funds likely trade much more intraday and minimize overnight exposures (increasing stock trading), but we classify them as intermediation liquidity in Table 1, rather than as a strategy used by natural investors.Using these conservative estimates:Hedge fund trading = $1 trillion in assets x (2 leverage x 2 sides) x 200% turnover = $9 trillion in liquidity each year= $36 billion/day or 8% of all liquidity.What about ETFs?With ETF liquidity of $176 billion per day (both sides) in 2019, it is easy to say they cause a lot of stock trading, but that’s not true. There are three types of ETF liquidity:ETFs as mutual funds: Just like other mutual funds, their portfolio will turnover as indexes change. However, most ETF assets are in index-style portfolios where turnover by the portfolio manager is limited. Consequently, we have included these in the mutual fund turnover metrics in the mutual funds section above.ETF trading: ETFs are their own ticker. An investor trading an ETF usually has nothing to do with underlying company stocks. In many QQQ trades, both the buyer and seller usually represent traders choosing ETFs because they are a cheaper way to gain portfolio exposure.ETF to stock arbitrage: Only authorized participants have the ability to arbitrage between the ETF and the stocks. We classify them as intermediaries (not naturals) and discuss their impact on stock liquidity later.What proportion of professional investors trade in dark pools?All of the categories above could be considered “professional investors.” They are likely to use brokers’ algorithms to work orders in the market. As a whole, these professional investors (mutual, international, pension and ETF funds) represent almost 60% of all investor assets, but just 23% of all liquidity.We also know that brokers route their orders through dark pools—and we know that dark pools represent around 12% of all liquidity.Even with market makers in dark pools, the math shows that professional investors execute a material proportion of their trades in dark pools, possibly 30% or more.What about retail?Retail trading grew significantly in 2020 to around 20% of the market. However, even in 2019, with 15% of all trades being retail, they represented a meaningful amount of “investor” liquidity.However, the way people refer to retail market share overstates their contribution to liquidity for two reasons:Each retail trade represents a buyer or seller, so they are on one side of 15% of sharesRetail tends to trade lower-priced stocks (see Chart 7). Using non-ATS TRF data by ticker, we estimate their contribution to value traded is actually 15% lower.That adds to closer to $30 billion each day in 2019, or just over 6% of all liquidity.Chart 7: Retail tends to trade lower-priced stocks more, reducing their contribution to notional liquidityWhere do Naturals trade?So far, we have accounted for around 93% of assets but less than 30% of all liquidity.That’s less than all the liquidity that trades off-exchange. With dark pools representing 12% of all trades and other off exchange adding to 29% of all trades.That seems to indicate that a material proportion of naturals execute off-exchange – even though they rely on the exchanges for efficient prices and tight spreads. Ironically that makes the role of intermediaries, and competitive quotes on exchanges, even more important to the whole ecosystem. (It’s also a reason to reward the public market for sharing price data – but that’s a topic for another day)Chart 8: These calculations indicate natural investors rely on exchanges for efficient prices but do a large proportion of trading off exchangesWhat about the rest?The breakdown for the other 70% of liquidity is much harder to support with public data, but our estimates show this is where specialist liquidity providers step in to keep markets and spreads efficient.It includes a lot of different strategies, from two-sided liquidity provision to cross market arbitrage to statistical arbitrage strategies, all targeting short-term mispricing caused by other traders.Their size in the U.S. market is a testament to low transaction costs, which allow for risk to be transferred via one or more additional trades. It is also a result of fragmentation and segmentation that increases facilitated trades.Here our estimates are based on less hard data but inferred from other levels of activity. To see how intermediaries could add to 70% of liquidity, consider:Wholesaler facilitation: Each retail trade facilitated off-exchange has a wholesaler on the other side. So the intermediation doubles the liquidity recorded (totaling 13% of all liquidity). However, TRF data shows the major wholesalers actually print trades representing closer to 25% of all liquidity, or about $117 billion per day. That additional 12% of all liquidity represents $57 billion, and likely trades with institutional investors or even other brokers.Equity futures traded around $620 billion each day in 2019, even more liquidity than the whole underlying U.S. stock market (Chart 9). S&P 500 Futures spreads are tight, at 0.8 basis points (bps), and there are arbitrage opportunities with SPY ETFs at 0.4bps and underlying portfolio at 4bps. Given stocks are the most expensive, it’s likely that most futures trades do NOT cause stocks to trade. But if just 5% of futures trading led to stock arbitrage, that would account for around $31bn/day or 7% of all stock liquidity, almost all in S&P500 stocks.ETF arbitrage:As discussed above, some “authorized participants” are able to convert rich stocks into cheaper ETFs and vice versa, a critical market function that keeps ETFs fairly priced for investors. However, ETF spreads are often so cheap that there are no arbitrage opportunities. Industry estimates peg the amount of trading that is ETF arbitrage at between 4% and 10% of ETF trading. If that’s the case, then ETF arbitrage contributes around $11 billion per day in liquidity, of just 2% of all liquidity. That’s consistent with the average creations plus redemptions per day (Chart 9), although that also includes many non-U.S. equity ETFs.Chart 9: ETF creations are a fraction of ETF liquidity, which is a fraction of stock liquidity, which itself is a fraction of equity futures liquidityOptions markets require initial hedges and constant delta hedging. Notional trading of stock options totals $221 billion per day. If just 30% of notional leads to stock hedges and arbitrage, that translates to $66 billion per day, or 14% of liquidity.Market makers’ purpose is to provide two-sided liquidity, not hold stocks long or short. They make money by accurately pricing the spread, and investors benefit from instantaneous liquidity on market orders. Given how few natural investors actually trade on-exchange, it’s more likely than many expect that the quotes on the screen are in fact market makers intermediating trades. If market makers provide liquidity on one side of every second trade on-exchange, that would add to around 16% in total liquidity.Opportunistic traders: Some traders run arbitrage strategies that correct mispricing, often by taking liquidity. We note that this paper suggests hedge funds made up as much as 30% of all trades, almost double our estimate above. That’s likely because traders with short-term mispricing strategies and small overnight balance, like statistical arbitrage, are excluded from our estimates above. These traders provide important risk transfers, even though there are little overnight positions or leverage. Given liquidity providers make up 16%, it’s possible these taker strategies add to 8% of all liquidity, or $37 billion per day.That still leaves us with a pretty large “other” category, at least from the perspective of natural investors. However, there are many other trading and hedging strategies we don’t know much about. For example, hedge funds also buy swaps and OTC options contracts from banks who still need to hedge their risk. Without data on the size of those markets, it’s difficult to estimate their impact on stock trading, but their gamma could even explain some of the growth in market-on-close trading.It’s also possible some of our intermediation estimates are off by at least this amount (given the lack of real data to reconcile to).Chart 10: Naturals hold most assets, but intermediation makes up most of the tradingWhat does this teach us?We would love to have more data to refine our results. But even as they stand, it helps us understand the role of each participant, bringing liquidity and price efficiency to the ecosystem. The data also busts some common myths:Index funds don’t trade much at all, which means they can’t permanently distort prices either.Price discovery comes from active funds and hedge funds.Informed trading overwhelms index fund inflows.Lots of other participants specialize in risk transfer, from futures arbitrage to statistical arbitrage to classic market making. By process of elimination, these participants may trade even more than all the natural investors combined. But having all this competition for lit trading is also critical to the rest of the market who rely on tight spreads and instant liquidity.The key takeaway though is that very low costs to trade in the U.S. allow so many specialists to play a role in keeping markets efficient. Rather than degrading market quality, all the competition for marginally profitable trades translates into more liquidity and tighter spreads for investors, which in turn leads to more attractive valuations for issuers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187496017,"gmtCreate":1623761180339,"gmtModify":1703818437392,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Peanut&nbsp;","listText":"Peanut&nbsp;","text":"Peanut","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187496017","repostId":"1129954811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129954811","pubTimestamp":1623757841,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129954811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 19:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129954811","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million o","content":"<p>Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. </p>\n<p>Proceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. </p>\n<p>Shares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&amp;P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7be375c5b14bd0e88066699dea19c74\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"440\"></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Royal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoyal Caribbean is issuing $650 million of five-year junk bonds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 19:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. \nProceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-is-issuing-650-million-of-five-year-junk-bonds-2021-06-15?siteid=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse+%28MarketWatch.com+-+MarketPulse%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1129954811","content_text":"Royal Caribbean Group RCL, -2.38% said Tuesday it has commenced a private offering of $650 million of five-year, high-yield bonds. \nProceeds of the deal will be used to fund the redemption of about $619.8 million of 7.25% notes that mature in 2025 that were issued by Silversea Cruise Finance Ltd., the cruise operator said in a statement. The remaining funds will be used for general corporate purposes. \nShares were up 0.51% premarket and have gained 18% in the year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.18% has gained 13%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389426943,"gmtCreate":1612795715682,"gmtModify":1704874339827,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ttm!","listText":"Ttm!","text":"Ttm!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389426943","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":312575486,"gmtCreate":1612171476445,"gmtModify":1704867676957,"author":{"id":"3571982027829573","authorId":"3571982027829573","authorIdStr":"3571982027829573","name":"Jayvinn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2610aa5f9cc70f591c1f9c900bb3f89e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571982027829573"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"N9","listText":"N9","text":"N9","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/312575486","repostId":"1100743236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100743236","pubTimestamp":1612167462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100743236?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-01 16:17","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"The frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100743236","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last we","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe frenzy of retail trade turned to silver...can it last?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 16:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb26334bf6f4e25ca891e786d2e0bdfb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/silver-futures-jump-7percent-as-reddit-traders-try-their-squeeze-play-with-the-metal.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1100743236","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets, which has helped drive trading activity in heavily shorted stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment in recent weeks.Futures contracts for silver surged higher early Monday morning as the Reddit-fueled boom in highly shorted stocks appears to be spilling over into the metals market.Spot silverprices jumped more than 10.5% at around 3:10 a.m. ET, trading at $29.85 an ounce. It comes amid the biggest move for silverfuturessince at least 2013.The sharp move higher builds off gains for silver and silver-related equities late last week. Silver mining stocksCoeur MiningandPan American Silverrose 16.9% and 14.7%, respectively, on Thursday and Friday. The iShares Silver Trust jumped 6.7% during those two sessions.The spike in demand for silver appears to be related to retail traders in the Reddit forum WallStreetBets, which has helped drive trading activity in heavily shorted stocks likeGameStopandAMC Entertainmentin recent weeks.The forum had multiple active threads dedicated to silver on Sunday night. The phrase ”#silversqueeze” was also trending on Twitter.The move in silver was touted by investors who are bullish on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which see the new digital assets in part as replacements for traditional metals.Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of cryptocurrency firm Gemini, said on twitter that, “The ramifications of a#silversqueezecannot be underestimated. If it’s exposed that there are more paper claims on silver than actual silver, not only would payoff be enormous, but gold would be next.#Bitcoinfixes this.”The dramatic spikes in GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks were due in part to a short squeeze, which is a phenomenon where investors who have bet against a stock are forced to buy shares to cover their positions as the name moves higher.Melvin Capital, one of the hedge funds who originally had short positions in GameStop,lost 53% in January.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}