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2022-10-06

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09:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Is Seeking New Twitter Investors at Same Price He Paid","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108538499","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Billionaire has previously said that he overpaid for companyOutreach follows weeks of turmoil at Twitter under MuskElon Musk is seeking new investors for Twitter Inc. at $54.20 a share, the same price","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Billionaire has previously said that he overpaid for company</li><li>Outreach follows weeks of turmoil at Twitter under Musk</li></ul><p>Elon Musk is seeking new investors for Twitter Inc. at $54.20 a share, the same price he paid when he took the company private for $44 billion in October and kicked off a contentious overhaul.</p><p>The managing director of the billionaire’s family office, Jared Birchall, has been reaching out to potential backers this week, news site Semafor reported on Friday. Ross Gerber, who runs Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management and took part in the earlier Twitter buyout, confirmed the outreach.</p><p>The fundraising attempt follows a tumultuous stretch at Twitter, where Musk has slashed jobs, upended longstanding policies and reinstated banned accounts. Just this week, the company suspended several journalists that Musk said had put his family in danger by revealing location information about his private plane.</p><p>Musk, who also runs Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, has acknowledged in the past that he paid too much for Twitter but has expressed confidence in its prospects in the long run.</p><p>“Obviously, myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for Twitter right now,” he said on a Tesla conference call in October. “The long-term potential for Twitter, in my view is, an order of magnitude greater than its current value.”</p><p>Twitter didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p>A pitch document announcing the new investment opportunity described it as “a follow-on equity offering for common shares at the original price and terms, targeting a year-end close,” according to Semafor. The move followed “numerous” inbound requests to invest in Twitter, the document said.</p><p>Gerber said he plans to check with his clients — many of whom have large positions in Tesla — to gauge their interest in the Twitter offering.</p><p>Musk agreed to acquire Twitter in April but then spent months trying unsuccessfully to get out of the deal. He has sold Tesla shares to help finance the purchase, and that has weighed on the stock, which is down 57% this year. As of this week, Musk had unloaded almost $40 billion in Tesla shares.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Is Seeking New Twitter Investors at Same Price He Paid</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Is Seeking New Twitter Investors at Same Price He Paid\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-17 09:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/musk-seeks-twitter-investors-at-same-price-he-paid-semafor-says?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Billionaire has previously said that he overpaid for companyOutreach follows weeks of turmoil at Twitter under MuskElon Musk is seeking new investors for Twitter Inc. at $54.20 a share, the same price...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/musk-seeks-twitter-investors-at-same-price-he-paid-semafor-says?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/musk-seeks-twitter-investors-at-same-price-he-paid-semafor-says?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108538499","content_text":"Billionaire has previously said that he overpaid for companyOutreach follows weeks of turmoil at Twitter under MuskElon Musk is seeking new investors for Twitter Inc. at $54.20 a share, the same price he paid when he took the company private for $44 billion in October and kicked off a contentious overhaul.The managing director of the billionaire’s family office, Jared Birchall, has been reaching out to potential backers this week, news site Semafor reported on Friday. Ross Gerber, who runs Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management and took part in the earlier Twitter buyout, confirmed the outreach.The fundraising attempt follows a tumultuous stretch at Twitter, where Musk has slashed jobs, upended longstanding policies and reinstated banned accounts. Just this week, the company suspended several journalists that Musk said had put his family in danger by revealing location information about his private plane.Musk, who also runs Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, has acknowledged in the past that he paid too much for Twitter but has expressed confidence in its prospects in the long run.“Obviously, myself and the other investors are obviously overpaying for Twitter right now,” he said on a Tesla conference call in October. “The long-term potential for Twitter, in my view is, an order of magnitude greater than its current value.”Twitter didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.A pitch document announcing the new investment opportunity described it as “a follow-on equity offering for common shares at the original price and terms, targeting a year-end close,” according to Semafor. The move followed “numerous” inbound requests to invest in Twitter, the document said.Gerber said he plans to check with his clients — many of whom have large positions in Tesla — to gauge their interest in the Twitter offering.Musk agreed to acquire Twitter in April but then spent months trying unsuccessfully to get out of the deal. He has sold Tesla shares to help finance the purchase, and that has weighed on the stock, which is down 57% this year. As of this week, Musk had unloaded almost $40 billion in Tesla shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928434543,"gmtCreate":1671338805482,"gmtModify":1676538526290,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928434543","repostId":"1184333109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184333109","pubTimestamp":1671322885,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184333109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-18 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184333109","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Stock sales break 2022 rebalancing trend that stoked ralliesFunds that hew to balanced strategies wi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Stock sales break 2022 rebalancing trend that stoked rallies</li><li>Funds that hew to balanced strategies will need to buy bonds</li></ul><p>The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession.</p><p>Notwithstanding their losses this week, equities gained over the quarter, driving up their value relative to other asset classes and forcing managers with strict allocation mandates to sell them to meet targets. Bonds are the likely beneficiaries of sales by sovereign wealth, pension and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings, according to JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and StoneX Financial Inc.</p><p>When December wraps up, sovereign wealth funds could be done selling roughly $29 billion in equities while US defined benefit pension plans would need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to meet their long-term targets and bring them back to September levels, JPMorgan estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f430f879a1d6a51556475310851b3cd3\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The pension and sovereign wealth funds that form the backbone of the investing community typically rebalance their market exposures every quarter to achieve a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.</p><p>“The recent equity market correction and bond rally is consistent with the rebalancing hypothesis,” said Vincent Deluard, a macro strategist at StoneX, who projects that some of the rebalancing has already happened this week. “Investors had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to target. It makes sense for this to continue until the end of the year.”</p><p>The adjustments away from equities will compound some $30 billion of forced sales expected by trend-chasing quants following a slide that’s taken the S&amp;P 500 down about 6% from its November high.</p><p>The latest blow came Wednesday when Chair Powell warned interest rates would remain elevated to tame inflation at the end of the Federal Reserve’s final 2022 meeting, dashing hopes the central bank was preparing to ratchet down its aggressive tightening campaign. Instead policymakers indicated they will keep hiking to a peak beyond what the market had anticipated.</p><p>According to JPMorgan calculations, Japan’s $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world’s largest pension fund, would have to sell $17 billion of equities to get back to its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian Oil Fund could move $12 billion from stocks to bonds.</p><p>A spokesperson for Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages the Norwegian Oil Fund, declined to comment. A spokesperson for GPIF didn’t immediately respond to an email outside of business hours seeking comment.</p><p>The forecasted sales mark a reversal from the first and second quarter trend where big funds were forced to buy stocks and fanned strong, but short-lived rallies. The last time such funds had to unload stocks to rebalance was in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.</p><p>Even so, this month’s sales are likely to pale in comparison to last December’s.</p><p>“The estimated rebalancing flow was almost double of the one estimated for the current quarter,” Panigirtzoglou said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-18 08:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock sales break 2022 rebalancing trend that stoked ralliesFunds that hew to balanced strategies will need to buy bondsThe world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184333109","content_text":"Stock sales break 2022 rebalancing trend that stoked ralliesFunds that hew to balanced strategies will need to buy bondsThe world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession.Notwithstanding their losses this week, equities gained over the quarter, driving up their value relative to other asset classes and forcing managers with strict allocation mandates to sell them to meet targets. Bonds are the likely beneficiaries of sales by sovereign wealth, pension and balanced mutual funds looking to replenish their fixed-income holdings, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and StoneX Financial Inc.When December wraps up, sovereign wealth funds could be done selling roughly $29 billion in equities while US defined benefit pension plans would need to shift up to $70 billion from equities to bonds to meet their long-term targets and bring them back to September levels, JPMorgan estimates.The pension and sovereign wealth funds that form the backbone of the investing community typically rebalance their market exposures every quarter to achieve a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.“The recent equity market correction and bond rally is consistent with the rebalancing hypothesis,” said Vincent Deluard, a macro strategist at StoneX, who projects that some of the rebalancing has already happened this week. “Investors had to sell stocks and buy bonds to get back to target. It makes sense for this to continue until the end of the year.”The adjustments away from equities will compound some $30 billion of forced sales expected by trend-chasing quants following a slide that’s taken the S&P 500 down about 6% from its November high.The latest blow came Wednesday when Chair Powell warned interest rates would remain elevated to tame inflation at the end of the Federal Reserve’s final 2022 meeting, dashing hopes the central bank was preparing to ratchet down its aggressive tightening campaign. Instead policymakers indicated they will keep hiking to a peak beyond what the market had anticipated.According to JPMorgan calculations, Japan’s $1.6 trillion GPIF, the world’s largest pension fund, would have to sell $17 billion of equities to get back to its target asset allocation. The $1.3 trillion Norwegian Oil Fund could move $12 billion from stocks to bonds.A spokesperson for Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages the Norwegian Oil Fund, declined to comment. A spokesperson for GPIF didn’t immediately respond to an email outside of business hours seeking comment.The forecasted sales mark a reversal from the first and second quarter trend where big funds were forced to buy stocks and fanned strong, but short-lived rallies. The last time such funds had to unload stocks to rebalance was in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.Even so, this month’s sales are likely to pale in comparison to last December’s.“The estimated rebalancing flow was almost double of the one estimated for the current quarter,” Panigirtzoglou said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923614640,"gmtCreate":1670848057681,"gmtModify":1676538445052,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572043809285615","idStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965108138","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9915538104,"gmtCreate":1665065918708,"gmtModify":1676537551985,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915538104","repostId":"2273840514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273840514","pubTimestamp":1665044703,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273840514?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273840514","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Return:The premium collected  for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>A 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.</li><li>This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.</li><li>Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f3cb26254a710c00fc93610b6f816b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.</p><p>The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla&#39;s recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.</p><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169ef27872a01b2f4e10b8f2bbb3595a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p>Key data points</h2><ul><li>Strike Price: $200</li><li>Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.</li><li>Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.</li></ul><p>In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.</p><h2>What&#39;s the expected return and possible outcomes?</h2><p><b>Return:</b> The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we&#39;d have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.</p><p><i>Outcome #1:</i> If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.</p><p><i>Outcome #2:</i> If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).</p><p><i>Outcome #3:</i> As an option seller, one can &#34;buy to close&#34; anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).</p><p>Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.</p><h2>Why $200 Looks attractive?</h2><ul><li><b>Trend:</b> Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.</li><li><b>Valuation:</b> At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.</li><li><b>Technical:</b> From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff7c149c2736d5d318a9f05d5f660af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chart (Google Charts)</span></p><h2>Many ways to skin the cat</h2><p>If the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don&#39;t appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That&#39;s a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e27902d5809db65325baf7bd85b6e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p><h2>Be aware of your risks and choices</h2><p>Once again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Tesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that&#39;s us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.</p><p><i>This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273840514","content_text":"SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.jetcityimageTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla's recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)Key data pointsStrike Price: $200Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.What's the expected return and possible outcomes?Return: The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.Outcome #1: If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.Outcome #2: If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).Outcome #3: As an option seller, one can \"buy to close\" anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.Why $200 Looks attractive?Trend: Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.Valuation: At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.Technical: From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.TSLA Chart (Google Charts)Many ways to skin the catIf the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don't appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That's a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)Be aware of your risks and choicesOnce again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.ConclusionTesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that's us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":69,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010188817,"gmtCreate":1648286697212,"gmtModify":1676534325654,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010188817","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883945450,"gmtCreate":1631198391670,"gmtModify":1676530495001,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/883945450","repostId":"1109747974","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109747974","pubTimestamp":1631197820,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109747974?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Group rallies after Citi starts off coverage with bullish take","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109747974","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Citi starts off coverage on Lucid Group Inc with a Buy rating and price target of $28.\nThe firm thin","content":"<p>Citi starts off coverage on <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a></b> with a Buy rating and price target of $28.</p>\n<p>The firm thinks that Lucid has the right building blocks to benefit from the EV Car of the Future thesis with leading EV-tech credentials and brand momentum. Citi also points to Lucid's initial level 2+ AV sensor/software approach. In the near term, share price direction is seen being driven by the Lucid Air launch timing and manufacturing ramp, ADAS/AV tech developments and sentiment around the brand awareness.</p>\n<p>Citi was a financial advisor on the Lucid SPAC deal.</p>\n<p>Lucid&nbsp;has recovered most of yesterday's decline tied to theredemption of public warrants.</p>\n<p>Lucid Group&nbsp;jumped&nbsp;5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f7d50bf6d23a56f679867ef0cc0d6\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Group rallies after Citi starts off coverage with bullish take</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Group rallies after Citi starts off coverage with bullish take\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-09 22:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3738367-lucid-group-rallies-after-citi-starts-off-coverage-with-bullish-take><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Citi starts off coverage on Lucid Group Inc with a Buy rating and price target of $28.\nThe firm thinks that Lucid has the right building blocks to benefit from the EV Car of the Future thesis with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3738367-lucid-group-rallies-after-citi-starts-off-coverage-with-bullish-take\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3738367-lucid-group-rallies-after-citi-starts-off-coverage-with-bullish-take","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1109747974","content_text":"Citi starts off coverage on Lucid Group Inc with a Buy rating and price target of $28.\nThe firm thinks that Lucid has the right building blocks to benefit from the EV Car of the Future thesis with leading EV-tech credentials and brand momentum. Citi also points to Lucid's initial level 2+ AV sensor/software approach. In the near term, share price direction is seen being driven by the Lucid Air launch timing and manufacturing ramp, ADAS/AV tech developments and sentiment around the brand awareness.\nCiti was a financial advisor on the Lucid SPAC deal.\nLucid has recovered most of yesterday's decline tied to theredemption of public warrants.\nLucid Group jumped 5% in early trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078536879,"gmtCreate":1657712547191,"gmtModify":1676536049545,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078536879","repostId":"1183317786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183317786","pubTimestamp":1657725663,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183317786?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-13 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Be Squeezed By Falling Money Supply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183317786","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple seems sensitive to money supply changes.The money supply has moved lower recently.Recen","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple seems sensitive to money supply changes.</li><li>The money supply has moved lower recently.</li><li>Recent comments from the Federal Reserve suggest the money supply could continue to fall.</li><li>Mega-cap stocks moved lower over the last eight months, while AAPL has resisted declining in line with its peers.</li></ul><p><b>An Ominous Sign Emerges From Recent Money Stock Changes</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) profitability seems to respond to changes in the Real M2 Money Stock. With that data series moving steadily lower over the last seven months, I find myself wondering if Apple&#39;s business is close to a decline as well. It&#39;s hard to recommend outright shorting Apple, given their track record, but <i>investors might consider reducing their positions if they are currently holding AAPL shares</i>.</p><p><b>Apple Seems Sensitive To The Money Supply</b></p><p>Below, in orange, is a line that charts Apple&#39;s net income from 2010 to the present time. The overlaid green line shows the change in Real M2 Money Stock over the same twelve-year timeframe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528936fdee032a8df5df1f1d9346f525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL, July 9, 2022.</p><p>Comparing Apple&#39;s total return to the same Real M2 Money Stock change over the last twelve years shows a similar trend. That isn&#39;t a surprising thing to observe: Apple has used profits to aggressively buy back shares starting in 2013.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2601df6c94bcf33cf9d8cb513831f02b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Real M2 Money Stock, July 9, 2022.</p><p>Below is a chart of Apple&#39;s revenue over the last five years, followed by the money stock over the same period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85bcf86056d9f31c4696dcff5cb61ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f11921668cd853bfe3dc9a034bd4f0a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL, July 11, 2022.</p><p>Before 2020, the last time the money stock jumped sharply higher was in the fall of 2008. Below is a graph that shows Apple&#39;s gross profit margin in 2008 and 2009 and one that shows net income in the same stretch, followed by the Real M2 Money Stock across the same timeframe.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3e8ea9499f7bf942e815b8629bc4b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9de35bc7a244e8f28e9c7246ee334e17\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0dcb7a36a761a9ae06fd52c7f67f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Real M2 Money Stock, July 11, 2022.</p><p>The money stock jumped by about 10.5% from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009. Apple&#39;s net income grew about 21% per quarter in that span. In the two years leading up to Q3 2008, Apple grew net income by about 12% per quarter, while the money stock increased less than 5% over that stretch.</p><p><b>Apple&#39;s Profit Margin Could Retreat From The Recent High Watermark</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bedb4549bcfeabac38c78e2582fbe3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Discussing recent high profit margins, an article posted to Forbes.com on February 3rd, 2021 suggested 1) that high revenues (at the time) helped Apple minimize the fixed costs that go into making an iPhone, 2) that Apple was more successful in convincing customers to buy the pro version of their devices, and 3) that growth in services revenue further absorbed fixed costs. I wanted to dig deeper into those suggestions.</p><p>Apple&#39;s total revenue over the last twelve years, charted below, moves somewhat sympathetically to gross profit margin at times but, to my eye, that relationship is hard to see with confidence.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b79a57b9e23952ddfd1caa062c3d8fe\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>According tobacklinko.com, the iPhone 12 outsold the second most popular model, however, if you combine iPhone Pro Max and iPhone Pro sales numbers, the high-end phones outsold the iPhone 12 by 50%. Information sourced from 9to5mac.com confirms that the dynamic of buying the more expensive model was a change compared to the iPhone 11 launch, where the baseline model outsold the pro models.</p><p>Higher services hit a record in Q1 2021. It&#39;s intuitive to recognize that services revenue growth diminishes the fixed cost of designing the systems that support that arm of Apple&#39;s business. It doesn&#39;t cost Apple anything to sell an additional digital book, mp3, or app subscription. With a burst of new customers introduced to the Apple ecosystem during the pandemic, it logically follows that services would see a boost.</p><p>My independent checks of the claims made in the Forbes article lead me to believe that higher margins in 2020 and early 2021 were mostly a function of 1) selling pro versions of the devices Apple released and 2) growing services revenue. According to macrumors.com, the iPhone 13 is currently outselling the pro models, similar to the sales dynamic of the iPhone 11 launch. Although services revenue growth may offset the hit to margins that could come from cheaper models regaining popularity, this dynamic suggests to me that Apple&#39;s gross profit margins are likely to move lower.</p><p><b>Apple Stock Jumped When Interest Rates Started Dropping</b></p><p>An article by Hunkar Ozyasaron Zacks.com notes,<i>“Stock prices tend to move higher when the money supply in an economy is high. Plenty of money circulating in the economy both makes more money available to invest in stocks and also makes alternative investment instruments, such as bonds, less attractive.”</i>From my perspective, Apple has become especially sensitive to money supply changes. Below is a graph that compares the total return for Apple against that of the S&amp;P 500. Apple struggled to keep pace for years, and then began jumping higher, just as interest rates started to be lowered in August 2019 and the money supply started to accelerate upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8bb00b5e7614aa6767abf974c06357\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>The Money Supply Is Contracting</b></p><p>Since January, the money stock has declined by almost 3%. That might not seem like a lot, but in the last twelve years, outside the last seven months, the money stock has hardly ever decreased at all. You have to go all the way back to 1995, 27 years ago, to find a decrease of at least 3% in the Real M2 Money Stock. If some part of Apple&#39;s ability to grow net income is tied to money supply growth, I would expect a contraction in net income to start showing up on Apple&#39;s books sometime soon.</p><p><b>Peer Stocks Aren&#39;t Waiting For Apple</b></p><p>Comparing total return over the last eight years for the four American companies that have a market cap north of a trillion dollars, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, reveals that all of these behemoths may respond, to some degree, to a change in the real money stock. Although some companies compared below might outperform others over time, they tend to move in roughly the same direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/086832380f269b21a2fd83d8cc9d4139\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Charted below is a comparison of the total return, as a percent change, for those big four companies, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN, over the last eight months. While three of the four companies have closely tracked lower, Apple seems determined to go its own way. Are investors wrong about three companies and right about one, or wrong about one company and right about the other three? Or is Apple actually in the process of differentiating itself from its peers?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c94585746919c5467bda08f0283ff58c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Macro Considerations</b></p><p>Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, recently suggested that the Fed is deeply committed to fighting the high inflation we are currently experiencing in the US. To do this, I think they will have to continue to bring the money stock lower. Based on the research presented in this article, I believe that possibility poses a risk to Apple&#39;s profitability.</p><p><b>Modeling Growth</b></p><p>Consider the two-year period of time leading up to 9/26/2020. Net income in that stretch actually <i>contracted</i> 3.56%, despite three separate iPhone model launches contributing to Apple&#39;s revenue, each offering a variety of device versions with diverse features and across a range of price points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d64c5fd4e8e04894d00c02d07c82a81d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>And if you look further back, at the <i>five</i> years preceding 9/26/2020, net income only grew a paltry 7.52%. Remember, this is Apple we&#39;re talking about across a five-year window. If you thought Apple would grow net income by 7.52% over the coming five years, would you be excited about buying shares at the current P/E GAAP of almost 24?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b118c3060735a60824a74f03f86a2568\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>I think Apple could easily return to a period of net income growth that was similar to what it realized leading up to the pandemic. Given high inflation and the Fed&#39;s stated resolve to fight it, I just don&#39;t think Apple is likely to enjoy any time soon the kinds of conditions that facilitated an enormous 77.55% rise in net income over just a year and a half. In addition to a contracting money supply, I suspect that Apple&#39;s large market cap and general declining smartphone demand will act to suppress growth.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>If services growth continues to climb higher, it could support Apple&#39;s profit margins and give the company the flexibility to lower prices on their devices. That, in turn, might allow Apple to better compete for a broader customer demographic and adapt to changing economic conditions that grow out of a shrinking money supply. If you hold shares of AAPL in a stock account that isn&#39;t tax-advantaged, it&#39;s possible that whatever risk you might be able to offload by selling AAPL won&#39;t make up for what is lost when you have to pay capital gains on your sale.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Warren Buffett really likes Apple, which comprises around42%of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s (BRK.A) (BRK.B) portfolio. Buffett likes to hold onto companies for a long time, and even added to his already lopsided AAPL bet in Q1, 2022.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Companies can&#39;t grow infinitely larger. With a market cap near 2.4 trillion dollars, there is a lot that has to go right for Apple to continue growing at a meaningful rate. There are only so many people in the world with enough cash, enough internet access, enough electricity, and enough interest to buy the next iPhone. Google search trends for the term “iPhone” reveal a long and steady decline in interest, and shows a similar trend measuring searches for “iPad”. If the recent burst in profitability was tied to a rare bump in the money stock, Apple could be in danger of returning to a slower growth, lower margin, and lower net income environment. Share buybacks, it would follow, could dry up or slow down considerably.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Be Squeezed By Falling Money Supply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Be Squeezed By Falling Money Supply\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-13 23:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522849-apple-could-be-squeezed-by-falling-money-supply?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple seems sensitive to money supply changes.The money supply has moved lower recently.Recent comments from the Federal Reserve suggest the money supply could continue to fall.Mega-cap stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522849-apple-could-be-squeezed-by-falling-money-supply?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522849-apple-could-be-squeezed-by-falling-money-supply?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A13","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183317786","content_text":"SummaryApple seems sensitive to money supply changes.The money supply has moved lower recently.Recent comments from the Federal Reserve suggest the money supply could continue to fall.Mega-cap stocks moved lower over the last eight months, while AAPL has resisted declining in line with its peers.An Ominous Sign Emerges From Recent Money Stock ChangesApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) profitability seems to respond to changes in the Real M2 Money Stock. With that data series moving steadily lower over the last seven months, I find myself wondering if Apple's business is close to a decline as well. It's hard to recommend outright shorting Apple, given their track record, but investors might consider reducing their positions if they are currently holding AAPL shares.Apple Seems Sensitive To The Money SupplyBelow, in orange, is a line that charts Apple's net income from 2010 to the present time. The overlaid green line shows the change in Real M2 Money Stock over the same twelve-year timeframe.Seeking Alpha, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL, July 9, 2022.Comparing Apple's total return to the same Real M2 Money Stock change over the last twelve years shows a similar trend. That isn't a surprising thing to observe: Apple has used profits to aggressively buy back shares starting in 2013.Seeking Alpha, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Real M2 Money Stock, July 9, 2022.Below is a chart of Apple's revenue over the last five years, followed by the money stock over the same period.Seeking AlphaFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL, July 11, 2022.Before 2020, the last time the money stock jumped sharply higher was in the fall of 2008. Below is a graph that shows Apple's gross profit margin in 2008 and 2009 and one that shows net income in the same stretch, followed by the Real M2 Money Stock across the same timeframe.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real M2 Money Stock [M2REAL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Real M2 Money Stock, July 11, 2022.The money stock jumped by about 10.5% from Q3 2008 to Q2 2009. Apple's net income grew about 21% per quarter in that span. In the two years leading up to Q3 2008, Apple grew net income by about 12% per quarter, while the money stock increased less than 5% over that stretch.Apple's Profit Margin Could Retreat From The Recent High WatermarkSeeking AlphaDiscussing recent high profit margins, an article posted to Forbes.com on February 3rd, 2021 suggested 1) that high revenues (at the time) helped Apple minimize the fixed costs that go into making an iPhone, 2) that Apple was more successful in convincing customers to buy the pro version of their devices, and 3) that growth in services revenue further absorbed fixed costs. I wanted to dig deeper into those suggestions.Apple's total revenue over the last twelve years, charted below, moves somewhat sympathetically to gross profit margin at times but, to my eye, that relationship is hard to see with confidence.Seeking AlphaAccording tobacklinko.com, the iPhone 12 outsold the second most popular model, however, if you combine iPhone Pro Max and iPhone Pro sales numbers, the high-end phones outsold the iPhone 12 by 50%. Information sourced from 9to5mac.com confirms that the dynamic of buying the more expensive model was a change compared to the iPhone 11 launch, where the baseline model outsold the pro models.Higher services hit a record in Q1 2021. It's intuitive to recognize that services revenue growth diminishes the fixed cost of designing the systems that support that arm of Apple's business. It doesn't cost Apple anything to sell an additional digital book, mp3, or app subscription. With a burst of new customers introduced to the Apple ecosystem during the pandemic, it logically follows that services would see a boost.My independent checks of the claims made in the Forbes article lead me to believe that higher margins in 2020 and early 2021 were mostly a function of 1) selling pro versions of the devices Apple released and 2) growing services revenue. According to macrumors.com, the iPhone 13 is currently outselling the pro models, similar to the sales dynamic of the iPhone 11 launch. Although services revenue growth may offset the hit to margins that could come from cheaper models regaining popularity, this dynamic suggests to me that Apple's gross profit margins are likely to move lower.Apple Stock Jumped When Interest Rates Started DroppingAn article by Hunkar Ozyasaron Zacks.com notes,“Stock prices tend to move higher when the money supply in an economy is high. Plenty of money circulating in the economy both makes more money available to invest in stocks and also makes alternative investment instruments, such as bonds, less attractive.”From my perspective, Apple has become especially sensitive to money supply changes. Below is a graph that compares the total return for Apple against that of the S&P 500. Apple struggled to keep pace for years, and then began jumping higher, just as interest rates started to be lowered in August 2019 and the money supply started to accelerate upward.Seeking AlphaThe Money Supply Is ContractingSince January, the money stock has declined by almost 3%. That might not seem like a lot, but in the last twelve years, outside the last seven months, the money stock has hardly ever decreased at all. You have to go all the way back to 1995, 27 years ago, to find a decrease of at least 3% in the Real M2 Money Stock. If some part of Apple's ability to grow net income is tied to money supply growth, I would expect a contraction in net income to start showing up on Apple's books sometime soon.Peer Stocks Aren't Waiting For AppleComparing total return over the last eight years for the four American companies that have a market cap north of a trillion dollars, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, reveals that all of these behemoths may respond, to some degree, to a change in the real money stock. Although some companies compared below might outperform others over time, they tend to move in roughly the same direction.Seeking AlphaCharted below is a comparison of the total return, as a percent change, for those big four companies, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN, over the last eight months. While three of the four companies have closely tracked lower, Apple seems determined to go its own way. Are investors wrong about three companies and right about one, or wrong about one company and right about the other three? Or is Apple actually in the process of differentiating itself from its peers?Seeking AlphaMacro ConsiderationsChairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, recently suggested that the Fed is deeply committed to fighting the high inflation we are currently experiencing in the US. To do this, I think they will have to continue to bring the money stock lower. Based on the research presented in this article, I believe that possibility poses a risk to Apple's profitability.Modeling GrowthConsider the two-year period of time leading up to 9/26/2020. Net income in that stretch actually contracted 3.56%, despite three separate iPhone model launches contributing to Apple's revenue, each offering a variety of device versions with diverse features and across a range of price points.Seeking AlphaAnd if you look further back, at the five years preceding 9/26/2020, net income only grew a paltry 7.52%. Remember, this is Apple we're talking about across a five-year window. If you thought Apple would grow net income by 7.52% over the coming five years, would you be excited about buying shares at the current P/E GAAP of almost 24?Seeking AlphaI think Apple could easily return to a period of net income growth that was similar to what it realized leading up to the pandemic. Given high inflation and the Fed's stated resolve to fight it, I just don't think Apple is likely to enjoy any time soon the kinds of conditions that facilitated an enormous 77.55% rise in net income over just a year and a half. In addition to a contracting money supply, I suspect that Apple's large market cap and general declining smartphone demand will act to suppress growth.RisksIf services growth continues to climb higher, it could support Apple's profit margins and give the company the flexibility to lower prices on their devices. That, in turn, might allow Apple to better compete for a broader customer demographic and adapt to changing economic conditions that grow out of a shrinking money supply. If you hold shares of AAPL in a stock account that isn't tax-advantaged, it's possible that whatever risk you might be able to offload by selling AAPL won't make up for what is lost when you have to pay capital gains on your sale.It's also worth noting that Warren Buffett really likes Apple, which comprises around42%of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) (BRK.B) portfolio. Buffett likes to hold onto companies for a long time, and even added to his already lopsided AAPL bet in Q1, 2022.ConclusionCompanies can't grow infinitely larger. With a market cap near 2.4 trillion dollars, there is a lot that has to go right for Apple to continue growing at a meaningful rate. There are only so many people in the world with enough cash, enough internet access, enough electricity, and enough interest to buy the next iPhone. Google search trends for the term “iPhone” reveal a long and steady decline in interest, and shows a similar trend measuring searches for “iPad”. If the recent burst in profitability was tied to a rare bump in the money stock, Apple could be in danger of returning to a slower growth, lower margin, and lower net income environment. Share buybacks, it would follow, could dry up or slow down considerably.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149141104,"gmtCreate":1625711156408,"gmtModify":1703746888756,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EV, autonomous driving on the way","listText":"EV, autonomous driving on the way","text":"EV, autonomous driving on the way","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149141104","repostId":"2149314245","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574399983193226","authorId":"3574399983193226","name":"MFME","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c7d2325aa9eb91869c4c7144270a75a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574399983193226","authorIdStr":"3574399983193226"},"content":"ford not moving up eh?","text":"ford not moving up eh?","html":"ford not moving up eh?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832617160,"gmtCreate":1629619582850,"gmtModify":1676530081071,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!!!","listText":"Good!!!","text":"Good!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832617160","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906871186,"gmtCreate":1659526843749,"gmtModify":1705981256915,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906871186","repostId":"1126736216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126736216","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"1012688067","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1659520760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126736216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-03 17:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Energy Stocks Have a Sustainable Future: It’s in Their Dividends","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126736216","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"One of the few numbers growing faster than energy stock dividends is the size of crowds convinced th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>One of the few numbers growing faster than energy stock dividends is the size of crowds convinced they are not sustainable. I’ve never witnessed a consensus opinion as negative on an entire sector as on traditional energy.</p><p>The debates are so one-sided that dividends’ simple clues are being overlooked, and instead more focus is placed on when traditional energy businesses will cease to exist.</p><p>Yet dividends offer investors better evidence of exactly what is working than any crowds. As a professional portfolio manager since 1996, I’ve studied every conceivable factor of investing success, and I’ve found no other metric with as long a track record. A dividend is delivered free of opinions about what is real — and that’s even more valuable when confusion about energy stocks is at an all-time high.</p><p>The potential for energy dividends to be paid and increased has never been greater, in large part because the sector is considered uninvestable by so many — a remarkable paradox.</p><p>Rather than single out individual stocks, it might be more helpful for investors if I can at least add some curiosity to their views of the group, far away from the consensus conviction.</p><p>Begin with simple supply and demand. Crowds of votes, regulations and protests to put an end to fossil fuels have resulted in the fewest oil CL.1, -1.10% and natural gas NG00, -3.44% discoveries last year, since 1946. Yet the number of global households has more than tripled since then, demanding more products, that in turn requires more petroleum to produce.</p><p>Between now and 2050, the United Nations goal of net zero carbon emissions, the demand for traditional energy will not only support dividends with more free cash flow but can increase those dividends substantially going forward.</p><p>The biggest surprise might be a special dividend for the climate from the most unlikely sources.</p><h3>Stakeholder math and mindset</h3><p>The silliest notion of ESG investors protesting the ownership of energy stocks by large institutions was that forcing them to sell would limit capital needed to operate.</p><p>Oil &amp; gas companies have no problem finding money. In the past, they have been so reckless in issuing shares and debt fueled by greed from chasing higher prices that they can go bankrupt all on their own just fine. Speculative investors poured money into shale projects that never produced cash flow and destroyed capital. The shale boom was a great lesson in geology and terrible math.</p><p>Focusing on a dividend requires discipline and more conservative math. A few of the highest-quality energy producers have begun to formally align their interests with stakeholders, showing the math they are basing dividend projections on and using commodity-price assumptions that are anything but greedy.</p><p>Investors are overlooking this monumental shift in mindset that has occurred since the last time oil and gas prices were this high.</p><p>Here’s an example from one of many companies that have learned from boom-and-bust cycles to use more conservative math. The green lines are oil and gas price assumptions used to forecast their free cash flow for dividends to be paid (one-half and one-third of current oil and gas prices as of July 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ab7ce681646b016268181fe712096b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Unlike previous cycles, some energy producers’ balance sheets are now pristine; their net long-term debt has been reduced or eliminated. Pair that with increasing their own internal investment hurdle rates before considering new projects, and they’ve made the math so much harder on themselves. Stakeholders are directly benefiting.</p><p>The best operators I study have learned hard lessons. But, as a portfolio manager I don’t take their word for it, I just stick to the math, which leaves no room for opinions.</p><p>Free cash flow is gushing, which support more dividends and less speculation. Even better, they can be acquired at cheap prices compared to the overall market thanks to forced selling pressure. This chart shows the current enterprise value divided by trailing 12 months of free cash flow. Each of the largest energy companies is considerably below the average of all sectors across the S&amp;P 500, which is 35.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d5091cb6d2f219f8a1aaf8e2285a85\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The upside of uncrowded truths</h3><p>Energy dividends are increasing as a result of our decreasing ability to have honest dialogues in this country. Our democracy has chosen to make it difficult or impossible for energy companies to grow their operations. So they are doing what they can with free cash flow: paying down debt, buying back shares and growing their dividends.</p><p>The crowds have made it ever harder on energy companies to transport oil and gas and even harder to refine it. Those gigantic pieces of energy’s puzzle more directly impact American household’s daily expenses than the price of a barrel of oil. To safely and affordably move energy through pipelines requires a growing infrastructure that is now close to impossible to build or expand.</p><p>A pipeline project with the most potential to add capacity was finally abandoned in 2021, after being proposed in 2008, and fully backed by long-term contracts from producers in Canada. Instead, oil sands are loaded on railcars and much less efficiently hauled into the U.S. with greater risks to the environment than pipelines.</p><p>I asked my good friend Hinds Howard, a leading expert of energy pipelines, about any other recent developments that have a chance. He pointed to another project that will battle to ever get finished after three years of permitting. The original cost estimates have almost doubled just from legal work around extra regulatory delays.</p><p>Energy’s refining capacity is even tighter. Rather than just face years of no growth and regulatory delays, refiners have been getting eliminated. In the last three years alone, four refineries have been shut down and two partially closed. Two more are scheduled to be closed. Six have been converted to renewable diesel. That is a net reduction of more than 1 million barrels a day.</p><p>Today there are 129 refineries, in 1982 there were 250.</p><p>Then we are surprised when growing demand for restricted supplies result in higher prices? The historically unique opportunity for investors is the irony of crowds of voters and protesters wanting to end the use of fossil fuels, ended up making energy dividends from the highest quality surviving operators safer than they have ever been.</p><h3>The most surprising dividend</h3><p>Up until now, I’ve relied on pure math, which I love because it leaves no room for any opinion, including my own. Here’s my only guess, based on the cleanest-burning motivation of capitalism to reward problem solvers: who better to lead us to cleaner energy than those who know exactly where it’s dirtiest?</p><p>I recently visited with an energy company CFO, and he was most excited about a closed-loop gas recapture project to reduce flaring gas. The company developed this first-of-its-kind technology to help solve a problem it created, and it has been considerably more successful than expected.</p><p>The new stated goal is “zero” routine flaring by 2025 and the company has more than doubled its climate technology budget in the past three years to help achieve that and try more projects.</p><p>Traditional energy was already getting cleaner and more efficient. The number of carbon emission kilograms for every $1 of U.S. GDP has been more than cut in half since 1990. That’s not a solution, but it’s the right direction and the common interest of stakeholders of this planet.</p><p>Innovation is more efficient than regulation. Energy companies in the U.S. already have the best climate technology in the world, and it’s not even close, and they can still improve it all substantially. We should lean into our advantages here. Traditional energy companies play a huge role in a more sustainable future and will pay increased dividends to get there.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Energy Stocks Have a Sustainable Future: It’s in Their Dividends</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEnergy Stocks Have a Sustainable Future: It’s in Their Dividends\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012688067\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-03 17:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>One of the few numbers growing faster than energy stock dividends is the size of crowds convinced they are not sustainable. I’ve never witnessed a consensus opinion as negative on an entire sector as on traditional energy.</p><p>The debates are so one-sided that dividends’ simple clues are being overlooked, and instead more focus is placed on when traditional energy businesses will cease to exist.</p><p>Yet dividends offer investors better evidence of exactly what is working than any crowds. As a professional portfolio manager since 1996, I’ve studied every conceivable factor of investing success, and I’ve found no other metric with as long a track record. A dividend is delivered free of opinions about what is real — and that’s even more valuable when confusion about energy stocks is at an all-time high.</p><p>The potential for energy dividends to be paid and increased has never been greater, in large part because the sector is considered uninvestable by so many — a remarkable paradox.</p><p>Rather than single out individual stocks, it might be more helpful for investors if I can at least add some curiosity to their views of the group, far away from the consensus conviction.</p><p>Begin with simple supply and demand. Crowds of votes, regulations and protests to put an end to fossil fuels have resulted in the fewest oil CL.1, -1.10% and natural gas NG00, -3.44% discoveries last year, since 1946. Yet the number of global households has more than tripled since then, demanding more products, that in turn requires more petroleum to produce.</p><p>Between now and 2050, the United Nations goal of net zero carbon emissions, the demand for traditional energy will not only support dividends with more free cash flow but can increase those dividends substantially going forward.</p><p>The biggest surprise might be a special dividend for the climate from the most unlikely sources.</p><h3>Stakeholder math and mindset</h3><p>The silliest notion of ESG investors protesting the ownership of energy stocks by large institutions was that forcing them to sell would limit capital needed to operate.</p><p>Oil &amp; gas companies have no problem finding money. In the past, they have been so reckless in issuing shares and debt fueled by greed from chasing higher prices that they can go bankrupt all on their own just fine. Speculative investors poured money into shale projects that never produced cash flow and destroyed capital. The shale boom was a great lesson in geology and terrible math.</p><p>Focusing on a dividend requires discipline and more conservative math. A few of the highest-quality energy producers have begun to formally align their interests with stakeholders, showing the math they are basing dividend projections on and using commodity-price assumptions that are anything but greedy.</p><p>Investors are overlooking this monumental shift in mindset that has occurred since the last time oil and gas prices were this high.</p><p>Here’s an example from one of many companies that have learned from boom-and-bust cycles to use more conservative math. The green lines are oil and gas price assumptions used to forecast their free cash flow for dividends to be paid (one-half and one-third of current oil and gas prices as of July 2022).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ab7ce681646b016268181fe712096b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Unlike previous cycles, some energy producers’ balance sheets are now pristine; their net long-term debt has been reduced or eliminated. Pair that with increasing their own internal investment hurdle rates before considering new projects, and they’ve made the math so much harder on themselves. Stakeholders are directly benefiting.</p><p>The best operators I study have learned hard lessons. But, as a portfolio manager I don’t take their word for it, I just stick to the math, which leaves no room for opinions.</p><p>Free cash flow is gushing, which support more dividends and less speculation. Even better, they can be acquired at cheap prices compared to the overall market thanks to forced selling pressure. This chart shows the current enterprise value divided by trailing 12 months of free cash flow. Each of the largest energy companies is considerably below the average of all sectors across the S&amp;P 500, which is 35.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d5091cb6d2f219f8a1aaf8e2285a85\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The upside of uncrowded truths</h3><p>Energy dividends are increasing as a result of our decreasing ability to have honest dialogues in this country. Our democracy has chosen to make it difficult or impossible for energy companies to grow their operations. So they are doing what they can with free cash flow: paying down debt, buying back shares and growing their dividends.</p><p>The crowds have made it ever harder on energy companies to transport oil and gas and even harder to refine it. Those gigantic pieces of energy’s puzzle more directly impact American household’s daily expenses than the price of a barrel of oil. To safely and affordably move energy through pipelines requires a growing infrastructure that is now close to impossible to build or expand.</p><p>A pipeline project with the most potential to add capacity was finally abandoned in 2021, after being proposed in 2008, and fully backed by long-term contracts from producers in Canada. Instead, oil sands are loaded on railcars and much less efficiently hauled into the U.S. with greater risks to the environment than pipelines.</p><p>I asked my good friend Hinds Howard, a leading expert of energy pipelines, about any other recent developments that have a chance. He pointed to another project that will battle to ever get finished after three years of permitting. The original cost estimates have almost doubled just from legal work around extra regulatory delays.</p><p>Energy’s refining capacity is even tighter. Rather than just face years of no growth and regulatory delays, refiners have been getting eliminated. In the last three years alone, four refineries have been shut down and two partially closed. Two more are scheduled to be closed. Six have been converted to renewable diesel. That is a net reduction of more than 1 million barrels a day.</p><p>Today there are 129 refineries, in 1982 there were 250.</p><p>Then we are surprised when growing demand for restricted supplies result in higher prices? The historically unique opportunity for investors is the irony of crowds of voters and protesters wanting to end the use of fossil fuels, ended up making energy dividends from the highest quality surviving operators safer than they have ever been.</p><h3>The most surprising dividend</h3><p>Up until now, I’ve relied on pure math, which I love because it leaves no room for any opinion, including my own. Here’s my only guess, based on the cleanest-burning motivation of capitalism to reward problem solvers: who better to lead us to cleaner energy than those who know exactly where it’s dirtiest?</p><p>I recently visited with an energy company CFO, and he was most excited about a closed-loop gas recapture project to reduce flaring gas. The company developed this first-of-its-kind technology to help solve a problem it created, and it has been considerably more successful than expected.</p><p>The new stated goal is “zero” routine flaring by 2025 and the company has more than doubled its climate technology budget in the past three years to help achieve that and try more projects.</p><p>Traditional energy was already getting cleaner and more efficient. The number of carbon emission kilograms for every $1 of U.S. GDP has been more than cut in half since 1990. That’s not a solution, but it’s the right direction and the common interest of stakeholders of this planet.</p><p>Innovation is more efficient than regulation. Energy companies in the U.S. already have the best climate technology in the world, and it’s not even close, and they can still improve it all substantially. We should lean into our advantages here. Traditional energy companies play a huge role in a more sustainable future and will pay increased dividends to get there.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVX":"雪佛龙","OXY":"西方石油"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126736216","content_text":"One of the few numbers growing faster than energy stock dividends is the size of crowds convinced they are not sustainable. I’ve never witnessed a consensus opinion as negative on an entire sector as on traditional energy.The debates are so one-sided that dividends’ simple clues are being overlooked, and instead more focus is placed on when traditional energy businesses will cease to exist.Yet dividends offer investors better evidence of exactly what is working than any crowds. As a professional portfolio manager since 1996, I’ve studied every conceivable factor of investing success, and I’ve found no other metric with as long a track record. A dividend is delivered free of opinions about what is real — and that’s even more valuable when confusion about energy stocks is at an all-time high.The potential for energy dividends to be paid and increased has never been greater, in large part because the sector is considered uninvestable by so many — a remarkable paradox.Rather than single out individual stocks, it might be more helpful for investors if I can at least add some curiosity to their views of the group, far away from the consensus conviction.Begin with simple supply and demand. Crowds of votes, regulations and protests to put an end to fossil fuels have resulted in the fewest oil CL.1, -1.10% and natural gas NG00, -3.44% discoveries last year, since 1946. Yet the number of global households has more than tripled since then, demanding more products, that in turn requires more petroleum to produce.Between now and 2050, the United Nations goal of net zero carbon emissions, the demand for traditional energy will not only support dividends with more free cash flow but can increase those dividends substantially going forward.The biggest surprise might be a special dividend for the climate from the most unlikely sources.Stakeholder math and mindsetThe silliest notion of ESG investors protesting the ownership of energy stocks by large institutions was that forcing them to sell would limit capital needed to operate.Oil & gas companies have no problem finding money. In the past, they have been so reckless in issuing shares and debt fueled by greed from chasing higher prices that they can go bankrupt all on their own just fine. Speculative investors poured money into shale projects that never produced cash flow and destroyed capital. The shale boom was a great lesson in geology and terrible math.Focusing on a dividend requires discipline and more conservative math. A few of the highest-quality energy producers have begun to formally align their interests with stakeholders, showing the math they are basing dividend projections on and using commodity-price assumptions that are anything but greedy.Investors are overlooking this monumental shift in mindset that has occurred since the last time oil and gas prices were this high.Here’s an example from one of many companies that have learned from boom-and-bust cycles to use more conservative math. The green lines are oil and gas price assumptions used to forecast their free cash flow for dividends to be paid (one-half and one-third of current oil and gas prices as of July 2022).Unlike previous cycles, some energy producers’ balance sheets are now pristine; their net long-term debt has been reduced or eliminated. Pair that with increasing their own internal investment hurdle rates before considering new projects, and they’ve made the math so much harder on themselves. Stakeholders are directly benefiting.The best operators I study have learned hard lessons. But, as a portfolio manager I don’t take their word for it, I just stick to the math, which leaves no room for opinions.Free cash flow is gushing, which support more dividends and less speculation. Even better, they can be acquired at cheap prices compared to the overall market thanks to forced selling pressure. This chart shows the current enterprise value divided by trailing 12 months of free cash flow. Each of the largest energy companies is considerably below the average of all sectors across the S&P 500, which is 35.The upside of uncrowded truthsEnergy dividends are increasing as a result of our decreasing ability to have honest dialogues in this country. Our democracy has chosen to make it difficult or impossible for energy companies to grow their operations. So they are doing what they can with free cash flow: paying down debt, buying back shares and growing their dividends.The crowds have made it ever harder on energy companies to transport oil and gas and even harder to refine it. Those gigantic pieces of energy’s puzzle more directly impact American household’s daily expenses than the price of a barrel of oil. To safely and affordably move energy through pipelines requires a growing infrastructure that is now close to impossible to build or expand.A pipeline project with the most potential to add capacity was finally abandoned in 2021, after being proposed in 2008, and fully backed by long-term contracts from producers in Canada. Instead, oil sands are loaded on railcars and much less efficiently hauled into the U.S. with greater risks to the environment than pipelines.I asked my good friend Hinds Howard, a leading expert of energy pipelines, about any other recent developments that have a chance. He pointed to another project that will battle to ever get finished after three years of permitting. The original cost estimates have almost doubled just from legal work around extra regulatory delays.Energy’s refining capacity is even tighter. Rather than just face years of no growth and regulatory delays, refiners have been getting eliminated. In the last three years alone, four refineries have been shut down and two partially closed. Two more are scheduled to be closed. Six have been converted to renewable diesel. That is a net reduction of more than 1 million barrels a day.Today there are 129 refineries, in 1982 there were 250.Then we are surprised when growing demand for restricted supplies result in higher prices? The historically unique opportunity for investors is the irony of crowds of voters and protesters wanting to end the use of fossil fuels, ended up making energy dividends from the highest quality surviving operators safer than they have ever been.The most surprising dividendUp until now, I’ve relied on pure math, which I love because it leaves no room for any opinion, including my own. Here’s my only guess, based on the cleanest-burning motivation of capitalism to reward problem solvers: who better to lead us to cleaner energy than those who know exactly where it’s dirtiest?I recently visited with an energy company CFO, and he was most excited about a closed-loop gas recapture project to reduce flaring gas. The company developed this first-of-its-kind technology to help solve a problem it created, and it has been considerably more successful than expected.The new stated goal is “zero” routine flaring by 2025 and the company has more than doubled its climate technology budget in the past three years to help achieve that and try more projects.Traditional energy was already getting cleaner and more efficient. The number of carbon emission kilograms for every $1 of U.S. GDP has been more than cut in half since 1990. That’s not a solution, but it’s the right direction and the common interest of stakeholders of this planet.Innovation is more efficient than regulation. Energy companies in the U.S. already have the best climate technology in the world, and it’s not even close, and they can still improve it all substantially. We should lean into our advantages here. Traditional energy companies play a huge role in a more sustainable future and will pay increased dividends to get there.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995477226,"gmtCreate":1661509734767,"gmtModify":1676536532503,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995477226","repostId":"1105502286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105502286","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1661505602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105502286?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Affirm, Gap, Workday, Ulta Beauty And More: U.S. Stocks to Watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105502286","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Gap: The clothing retailer said its customers pulled back during the recent quarter because of risin","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>: The clothing retailer said its customers pulled back during the recent quarter because of rising fuel costs and other inflationary pressures, though its sales beat Wall Street forecasts. Its shares jumped 6.4% premarket.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">Ulta Beauty</a>: The beauty-store chain reported higher revenue in the recent quarter than analysts had forecast. Its shares added 3% off hours.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>: The cloud-software company&#39;s shares climbed 11% off hours after it reported higher subscription revenue and said it expects the momentum to continue in the current quarter.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">Affirm</a>: The company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its fiscal Q4 and worse-than-projected outlook for fiscal 2023. Affirm shares plunged 15% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies</a>: The computer-equipment maker reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates.</li><p></p></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Affirm, Gap, Workday, Ulta Beauty And More: U.S. Stocks to Watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAffirm, Gap, Workday, Ulta Beauty And More: U.S. Stocks to Watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-26 17:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>: The clothing retailer said its customers pulled back during the recent quarter because of rising fuel costs and other inflationary pressures, though its sales beat Wall Street forecasts. Its shares jumped 6.4% premarket.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULTA\">Ulta Beauty</a>: The beauty-store chain reported higher revenue in the recent quarter than analysts had forecast. Its shares added 3% off hours.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>: The cloud-software company&#39;s shares climbed 11% off hours after it reported higher subscription revenue and said it expects the momentum to continue in the current quarter.</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">Affirm</a>: The company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its fiscal Q4 and worse-than-projected outlook for fiscal 2023. Affirm shares plunged 15% in premarket trading.</li></ul><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies</a>: The computer-equipment maker reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates.</li><p></p></ul></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ULTA":"Ulta美容","WDAY":"Workday","DELL":"戴尔","AFRM":"Affirm Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105502286","content_text":"Gap: The clothing retailer said its customers pulled back during the recent quarter because of rising fuel costs and other inflationary pressures, though its sales beat Wall Street forecasts. Its shares jumped 6.4% premarket.Ulta Beauty: The beauty-store chain reported higher revenue in the recent quarter than analysts had forecast. Its shares added 3% off hours.Workday: The cloud-software company's shares climbed 11% off hours after it reported higher subscription revenue and said it expects the momentum to continue in the current quarter.Affirm: The company posted a wider-than-expected loss for its fiscal Q4 and worse-than-projected outlook for fiscal 2023. Affirm shares plunged 15% in premarket trading.Dell Technologies: The computer-equipment maker reported upbeat earnings for its second quarter, while sales missed estimates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056958178,"gmtCreate":1654926714294,"gmtModify":1676535536219,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056958178","repostId":"2242635344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242635344","pubTimestamp":1654916290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242635344?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242635344","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These two companies have a couple of crucial qualities in common.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it&#39;s even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a changing business environment.</p><p>These are excellent qualities in the best of times as well. However, flexibility and a solid financial footing will separate the wheat from the chaff when the market turns bearish. These are the companies that will survive the longest and roughest of storms, looking like a winner amid the widespread wreckage on the other side.</p><p>So if you expect the economy to continue the downtrend of the last six months, you should consider grabbing a few shares of <b>Micron Technology</b>  and <b>Alphabet</b> right now. These businesses come with heaping helpings of the game-changing features mentioned above, and the deal gets even sweeter when the stocks are trading at fire-sale prices.</p><h2>A solid financial platform</h2><p>Let&#39;s get the numbers out of the way first.</p><p>Google parent Alphabet has $20.9 billion of cash equivalents on its balance sheet, paired with just $14.8 billion in long-term debt. But that&#39;s not all. In a pinch, Alphabet could also sell off its marketable securities -- stocks, bonds, and other not-quite-cash assets -- valued at $113 billion at the end of March.</p><p>So Alphabet carries liquid assets worth approximately 8 times as much as its long-term debt. If the cash flow spigot suddenly shuts off, these reserves would carry the company through many years or even decades of dark times.</p><p>Memory-chip maker Micron should be a different story because it works in a different sector. Alphabet&#39;s operations are asset-light and highly profitable, while Micron invests billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing equipment every year. It&#39;s only fair to expect Micron&#39;s balance sheet to tilt heavily in the direction of massive debts and limited cash.</p><p>But the company plays a different tune. As of March 3, Micron carried $10.1 billion of cash and short-term investments against just $7 billion in long-term debt. Yes, Micron&#39;s debt leverage is a little bit less comfortable than Alphabet&#39;s, but the company is in excellent financial shape considering the asset-rich sector it&#39;s in.</p><p>Both Micron and Alphabet are also adding to their cash hoards, generating generous free cash flows every year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294e44ec991217e05531996c5bcf25c3\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GOOG and MU Free Cash Flow data by YCharts</p><h2>Keeping an open mind</h2><p>Flexibility is the other half of my formula for long-term success in any type of market.</p><p>I shouldn&#39;t need to remind you that Alphabet is the king of trying new ideas. Google&#39;s search and advertising services have made Alphabet <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most valuable companies in the world, but management has long been planning for the next stage. The potential growth drivers of that stretch include the Waymo self-driving car business, health services from Verily Life Sciences, and high-speed internet connections by Google Fiber.</p><p>The proliferation of future business ideas not named Google is the reason behind the name change to Alphabet in 2015. By disconnecting the corporate name from the Google brand, Alphabet set itself up to become a cross-sector conglomerate in the long run.</p><p>In short, Alphabet keeps a stirringly open mind to new business ideas. Whatever comes next, the company will poke and prod at the new environment until it finds a healthy and profitable niche (or five). With the backing of that ultra-solid balance sheet, I see no reason why Alphabet shouldn&#39;t thrive through the next downturn and beyond.</p><p>Micron isn&#39;t quite as adventurous as Alphabet, of course. Once again, the company has invested many billions in a global chip-making infrastructure and you can&#39;t just flip a switch to run that business in a totally different direction.</p><p>But Micron has grown up from a smallish chipmaker in a highly fragmented industry to a leading supplier in a new era. There are only a couple of memory-chip companies left on the market after several rounds of pricing pressure, bankruptcies, buyouts, and consolidation. Micron has always emerged from these challenging cycles as a winner, picking up the ashes of its failed rivals in pennies-on-the-dollar bankruptcy auctions.</p><p>The mature version of the memory industry that you see today has also been good for Micron. The sector as a whole has started to slow down the boom-and-bust cycles of low chip supplies, massive factory investments, and oversupply. Micron&#39;s strategy these days is to increase its manufacturing capacity in line with rising demand for memory chips, and no more.</p><p>So Micron may not be leading the charge into unknown territory the way Alphabet does, but the company has a proven ability to adopt the right strategy for a variety of market conditions. That should keep Micron going strong for the long run, come chip shortages or low waters.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it's even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242635344","content_text":"Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it's even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a changing business environment.These are excellent qualities in the best of times as well. However, flexibility and a solid financial footing will separate the wheat from the chaff when the market turns bearish. These are the companies that will survive the longest and roughest of storms, looking like a winner amid the widespread wreckage on the other side.So if you expect the economy to continue the downtrend of the last six months, you should consider grabbing a few shares of Micron Technology  and Alphabet right now. These businesses come with heaping helpings of the game-changing features mentioned above, and the deal gets even sweeter when the stocks are trading at fire-sale prices.A solid financial platformLet's get the numbers out of the way first.Google parent Alphabet has $20.9 billion of cash equivalents on its balance sheet, paired with just $14.8 billion in long-term debt. But that's not all. In a pinch, Alphabet could also sell off its marketable securities -- stocks, bonds, and other not-quite-cash assets -- valued at $113 billion at the end of March.So Alphabet carries liquid assets worth approximately 8 times as much as its long-term debt. If the cash flow spigot suddenly shuts off, these reserves would carry the company through many years or even decades of dark times.Memory-chip maker Micron should be a different story because it works in a different sector. Alphabet's operations are asset-light and highly profitable, while Micron invests billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing equipment every year. It's only fair to expect Micron's balance sheet to tilt heavily in the direction of massive debts and limited cash.But the company plays a different tune. As of March 3, Micron carried $10.1 billion of cash and short-term investments against just $7 billion in long-term debt. Yes, Micron's debt leverage is a little bit less comfortable than Alphabet's, but the company is in excellent financial shape considering the asset-rich sector it's in.Both Micron and Alphabet are also adding to their cash hoards, generating generous free cash flows every year:GOOG and MU Free Cash Flow data by YChartsKeeping an open mindFlexibility is the other half of my formula for long-term success in any type of market.I shouldn't need to remind you that Alphabet is the king of trying new ideas. Google's search and advertising services have made Alphabet one of the most valuable companies in the world, but management has long been planning for the next stage. The potential growth drivers of that stretch include the Waymo self-driving car business, health services from Verily Life Sciences, and high-speed internet connections by Google Fiber.The proliferation of future business ideas not named Google is the reason behind the name change to Alphabet in 2015. By disconnecting the corporate name from the Google brand, Alphabet set itself up to become a cross-sector conglomerate in the long run.In short, Alphabet keeps a stirringly open mind to new business ideas. Whatever comes next, the company will poke and prod at the new environment until it finds a healthy and profitable niche (or five). With the backing of that ultra-solid balance sheet, I see no reason why Alphabet shouldn't thrive through the next downturn and beyond.Micron isn't quite as adventurous as Alphabet, of course. Once again, the company has invested many billions in a global chip-making infrastructure and you can't just flip a switch to run that business in a totally different direction.But Micron has grown up from a smallish chipmaker in a highly fragmented industry to a leading supplier in a new era. There are only a couple of memory-chip companies left on the market after several rounds of pricing pressure, bankruptcies, buyouts, and consolidation. Micron has always emerged from these challenging cycles as a winner, picking up the ashes of its failed rivals in pennies-on-the-dollar bankruptcy auctions.The mature version of the memory industry that you see today has also been good for Micron. The sector as a whole has started to slow down the boom-and-bust cycles of low chip supplies, massive factory investments, and oversupply. Micron's strategy these days is to increase its manufacturing capacity in line with rising demand for memory chips, and no more.So Micron may not be leading the charge into unknown territory the way Alphabet does, but the company has a proven ability to adopt the right strategy for a variety of market conditions. That should keep Micron going strong for the long run, come chip shortages or low waters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038062734,"gmtCreate":1646699535196,"gmtModify":1676534151771,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038062734","repostId":"2217440200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217440200","pubTimestamp":1646698899,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2217440200?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Plots Vaccines against 15 Pathogens with Future Pandemic Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217440200","media":"Reuters","summary":"Moderna Inc said on Monday it plans to develop and begin testing vaccines targeting 15 of the world'","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Moderna Inc said on Monday it plans to develop and begin testing vaccines targeting 15 of the world&#39;s most worrisome pathogens by 2025 and will permanently wave its COVID-19 vaccine patents for shots intended for certain low- and middle-income countries.</p><p>The U.S. biotechnology company also said it will make its messenger RNA (mRNA) technology available to researchers working on new vaccines for emerging and neglected diseases through a program called mRNA Access.</p><p>Moderna announced its strategy ahead of the Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit sponsored by the UK government and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), an international coalition set up five years ago to prepare for future disease threats.</p><p>Moderna is already collaborating with partners on vaccines against some of the 15 pathogens, which include Chikungunya, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, Marburg, Lassa fever, MERS and COVID-19.</p><p>Those collaborations include a Nipah virus vaccine with the U.S. National Institutes of Health and an HIV vaccine with the Gates Foundation and the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Moderna President Stephen Hoge said in an interview.</p><p>The company will either seek out new partners for the others or develop them internally, he said.</p><p>Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel told a virtual press briefing on Monday that the 15 viruses are known threats that have not been addressed by many large drugmakers. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed six million people worldwide and sickened millions more, has made clear that needs to change, Bancel said.</p><p>&#34;Too many lives were lost in the last few years,” he said.</p><p>Early in the COVID pandemic, Moderna pledged not to enforce its vaccine patents during the emergency phase of the health crisis.</p><p>That has allowed for development of a vaccine manufacturing plant in Africa backed by the World Health Organization as part of a pilot project to give poor and middle-income countries the know-how to make COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p>Moderna said it will make that pledge permanent for the 92 low- and middle income countries that qualify for assistance under the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) led by the GAVI vaccine alliance.</p><p>A company spokesperson said Moderna will not enforce patents for COVID-19 vaccines developed in South Africa by WHO-backed Afrigen Biologics for AMC-92 low- and middle-income countries.</p><p>Although it will not enforce its patents in these countries, Hoge said Moderna does not intend to share its vaccine technology with the WHO-backed technology transfer hub in South Africa, in spite of lobbying efforts by the organization.</p><p>Earlier on Monday, the company said it will set up a manufacturing facility in Kenya, its first in Africa, to produce mRNA vaccines, including against COVID-19.</p><p>As part of its future pandemic plan, Moderna intends to make its technology available to academic research labs to test their own theories for vaccines to address emerging and neglected diseases. Hoge said some of these may eventually result in partnerships with Moderna to address the 15 priority pathogens.</p><p>&#34;What we want to make sure happens is that scientists who have great ideas for how they could make vaccines will be able to access our standards and technology, almost as if they worked at Moderna,&#34; Hoge said.</p><p>Initially, the program will start with a few academic labs, but Hoge expects it to expand rapidly. He sees the program as a way to expand discovery of vaccines using mRNA technology.</p><p>&#34;We want to make sure that we allow others to explore the space that frankly, we can&#39;t get to,&#34; he said. &#34;And that&#39;s really what this is about.&#34; </p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Plots Vaccines against 15 Pathogens with Future Pandemic Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Plots Vaccines against 15 Pathogens with Future Pandemic Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-08 08:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-plots-vaccines-against-15-000100999.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Moderna Inc said on Monday it plans to develop and begin testing vaccines targeting 15 of the world's most worrisome pathogens by 2025 and will permanently wave its COVID-19 vaccine patents for shots ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-plots-vaccines-against-15-000100999.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-plots-vaccines-against-15-000100999.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2217440200","content_text":"Moderna Inc said on Monday it plans to develop and begin testing vaccines targeting 15 of the world's most worrisome pathogens by 2025 and will permanently wave its COVID-19 vaccine patents for shots intended for certain low- and middle-income countries.The U.S. biotechnology company also said it will make its messenger RNA (mRNA) technology available to researchers working on new vaccines for emerging and neglected diseases through a program called mRNA Access.Moderna announced its strategy ahead of the Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit sponsored by the UK government and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), an international coalition set up five years ago to prepare for future disease threats.Moderna is already collaborating with partners on vaccines against some of the 15 pathogens, which include Chikungunya, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, Marburg, Lassa fever, MERS and COVID-19.Those collaborations include a Nipah virus vaccine with the U.S. National Institutes of Health and an HIV vaccine with the Gates Foundation and the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Moderna President Stephen Hoge said in an interview.The company will either seek out new partners for the others or develop them internally, he said.Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel told a virtual press briefing on Monday that the 15 viruses are known threats that have not been addressed by many large drugmakers. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed six million people worldwide and sickened millions more, has made clear that needs to change, Bancel said.\"Too many lives were lost in the last few years,” he said.Early in the COVID pandemic, Moderna pledged not to enforce its vaccine patents during the emergency phase of the health crisis.That has allowed for development of a vaccine manufacturing plant in Africa backed by the World Health Organization as part of a pilot project to give poor and middle-income countries the know-how to make COVID-19 vaccines.Moderna said it will make that pledge permanent for the 92 low- and middle income countries that qualify for assistance under the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) led by the GAVI vaccine alliance.A company spokesperson said Moderna will not enforce patents for COVID-19 vaccines developed in South Africa by WHO-backed Afrigen Biologics for AMC-92 low- and middle-income countries.Although it will not enforce its patents in these countries, Hoge said Moderna does not intend to share its vaccine technology with the WHO-backed technology transfer hub in South Africa, in spite of lobbying efforts by the organization.Earlier on Monday, the company said it will set up a manufacturing facility in Kenya, its first in Africa, to produce mRNA vaccines, including against COVID-19.As part of its future pandemic plan, Moderna intends to make its technology available to academic research labs to test their own theories for vaccines to address emerging and neglected diseases. Hoge said some of these may eventually result in partnerships with Moderna to address the 15 priority pathogens.\"What we want to make sure happens is that scientists who have great ideas for how they could make vaccines will be able to access our standards and technology, almost as if they worked at Moderna,\" Hoge said.Initially, the program will start with a few academic labs, but Hoge expects it to expand rapidly. He sees the program as a way to expand discovery of vaccines using mRNA technology.\"We want to make sure that we allow others to explore the space that frankly, we can't get to,\" he said. \"And that's really what this is about.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031497705,"gmtCreate":1646633676916,"gmtModify":1676534145516,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031497705","repostId":"1162652532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162652532","pubTimestamp":1646632163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162652532?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 13:49","market":"other","language":"en","title":"92 Energy (ASX:92E) Intersects Elevated Radioactivity at Uranium Discovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162652532","media":"themarketherald","summary":"92 Energy (92E) has intersected elevated radioactivity in the first three drill holes at the Gemini ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>92 Energy (92E) has intersected elevated radioactivity in the first three drill holes at the Gemini Mineralised Zone (GMZ) within the Gemini uranium project in Canada.</p><p>The company began its winter 2022 drilling program in January to test the extent of uranium mineralisation at the project, with a particular focus on the GMZ discovery which was made in September last year.</p><p>The Gemini Project is located 27 kilometres southeast of the McArthur River uranium mine which is one of the largest and highest-grade uranium deposits in the world.</p><p>So far, the company has completed four holes at the GMZ, with all four (including the initial discovery hole GEM-004) intersecting elevated radioactivity.</p><p>Holes GEM22-005, GEM22-006 and GEM22-008 all intersected elevated radioactivity, which has now been defined over an 84-metre length across strike.</p><p>According to the company, the most ‘intense’ radioactivity encountered in the winter 2022 program was found in GEM22-006, which cut 14 metres of composite elevated radioactivity with a maximum reading of 2230 counts per second (cps) on a handheld RS-121 scintillometer.</p><p>The energy stock said all four completed holes in this program are associated with a strong and broad zone of clay, hematite and quartz alteration, with common fault breccias and other structures.</p><p>92 Energy’s drilling program is ongoing at the Gemini Project with 5500 metres of drilling still to be completed.</p><p>Company shares were up 4.81 per cent to trade at 54.5 cents at 12:45 pm AEDT.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1645077863021","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>92 Energy (ASX:92E) Intersects Elevated Radioactivity at Uranium Discovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n92 Energy (ASX:92E) Intersects Elevated Radioactivity at Uranium Discovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-07 13:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://themarketherald.com.au/92-energy-asx92e-intersects-elevated-radioactivity-at-uranium-discovery-2022-03-07/><strong>themarketherald</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>92 Energy (92E) has intersected elevated radioactivity in the first three drill holes at the Gemini Mineralised Zone (GMZ) within the Gemini uranium project in Canada.The company began its winter 2022...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://themarketherald.com.au/92-energy-asx92e-intersects-elevated-radioactivity-at-uranium-discovery-2022-03-07/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"92E.AU":"Energy Ltd"},"source_url":"https://themarketherald.com.au/92-energy-asx92e-intersects-elevated-radioactivity-at-uranium-discovery-2022-03-07/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162652532","content_text":"92 Energy (92E) has intersected elevated radioactivity in the first three drill holes at the Gemini Mineralised Zone (GMZ) within the Gemini uranium project in Canada.The company began its winter 2022 drilling program in January to test the extent of uranium mineralisation at the project, with a particular focus on the GMZ discovery which was made in September last year.The Gemini Project is located 27 kilometres southeast of the McArthur River uranium mine which is one of the largest and highest-grade uranium deposits in the world.So far, the company has completed four holes at the GMZ, with all four (including the initial discovery hole GEM-004) intersecting elevated radioactivity.Holes GEM22-005, GEM22-006 and GEM22-008 all intersected elevated radioactivity, which has now been defined over an 84-metre length across strike.According to the company, the most ‘intense’ radioactivity encountered in the winter 2022 program was found in GEM22-006, which cut 14 metres of composite elevated radioactivity with a maximum reading of 2230 counts per second (cps) on a handheld RS-121 scintillometer.The energy stock said all four completed holes in this program are associated with a strong and broad zone of clay, hematite and quartz alteration, with common fault breccias and other structures.92 Energy’s drilling program is ongoing at the Gemini Project with 5500 metres of drilling still to be completed.Company shares were up 4.81 per cent to trade at 54.5 cents at 12:45 pm AEDT.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9935245034,"gmtCreate":1663111682229,"gmtModify":1676537203685,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935245034","repostId":"1150110459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150110459","pubTimestamp":1663110393,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150110459?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-14 07:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"They Should Do 100\": Wall Street Debates the Fed’s Next Rate Move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150110459","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"‘Markets would hate it’ versus ‘the market might rally’100-point basis move would ‘reinforce credibi","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>‘Markets would hate it’ versus ‘the market might rally’</li><li>100-point basis move would ‘reinforce credibility’: Summers</li></ul><p>Tuesday’s unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points next week. Wall Street then began to weigh the chance that the Fed might make a more dramatic statement.</p><p>The odds for a 100 basis point rate hike jumped more than 20% after the consumer price index showed an increase from July. With hopes of a “Fed pivot” firmly dashed, the S&amp;P 500 Index tumbled as much as 3.2%.</p><p>Most investment professionals doubted that an unexpectedly high inflation reading would push the central bank off course to raise rates at their September meeting by an amount not seen since 1984.</p><p>“The Fed will want to follow what the market expects and the market is really expecting a 75 basis points move -– so that’s what the Fed will do,” said Tom Di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global.</p><p>But on Tuesday, Nomura economists changed their forecast for the Fed’s September meeting from a 75 to 100 basis points, writing that “a more aggressive path of interest rate hikes will be needed to combat increasingly entrenched inflation.”</p><p>Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary and the President Emeritus of Harvard University, tweeted that if he was a Fed official, he would pick “a 100 basis points move to reinforce credibility.”</p><p>And Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said that if the Fed needs to raise rates sharply, it would be best to do so quickly and get it over with.</p><p>“Seventy-five is most likely, but they should do 100,” he said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488325a43551ea5baed1404b2226daae\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Here’s what other Wall Street strategists said:</p><p>Andrew Lekas, head of FICC trading at Old Mission Capital:</p><blockquote>“Oddly enough, I think the market might rally,” he said. “They want to see the Fed take things seriously on the inflation front, and the sooner we get to the end of these hikes the better.”</blockquote><blockquote>“The knee-jerk reaction is probably lower in all risk assets, and there’s the obvious funding impact on anyone who is using leverage, but for the medium term health of the market I think 100 might make sense.”</blockquote><p>Steven Englander, head of Group-of-10 currency research at Standard Charter:</p><blockquote>“If you are on the FOMC and believe that the market needs shock and awe to lower inflation expectations, then maybe you argue for 100bps. I think it’s more sensible for the FOMC to say ‘we can keep raising rates as far as we have to but don’t have to do it at once.’”</blockquote><p>Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics:</p><blockquote>“Eleven Fed officials have made it very clear that they will not slow the pace of rate hikes until they see convincing evidence that core inflation pressure is easing on a sequential basis. These data mean that the chance of a 50bp hike next week has gone,” he said. “But the 20% chance of a 100bp hike now priced-in looks over the top.”</blockquote><p>Kate Moore, BlackRock Head of Thematic Strategy for Global Allocation:</p><blockquote>“We haven’t changed our call (75bp) but I think it’s really wise to adjust expectations around the forward path especially to the year end,” she said. “The fact that 100bps is starting to get somewhat priced into the market, it’s a bit destabilizing for the equity market.”</blockquote><p>Nisha Patel, director and portfolio manager of fixed income at Parametric:</p><blockquote>“Don’t be surprised if the Fed’s hand is forced to do 100bps. The idea that inflation had peaked has been dispelled and now the likelihood of that soft landing for the economy has only decreased. Expect long-bond yields likely to come down leading up to the September meeting as recessionary risk increases.”</blockquote><p>Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Global Investors:</p><blockquote>“Until the Fed can tame that beast, there is simply no room for a discussion on pivots or pauses.”</blockquote><p>Alex Chaloff, co-head of investment strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management:</p><blockquote>“Powell has been more careful with his communications. If we go for 100bps, I would expect we would get the same tipping of the hand as we have gotten when we did 75bps.”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"They Should Do 100\": Wall Street Debates the Fed’s Next Rate Move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"They Should Do 100\": Wall Street Debates the Fed’s Next Rate Move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-14 07:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/-they-should-do-100-traders-debate-the-fed-s-next-rate-move?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘Markets would hate it’ versus ‘the market might rally’100-point basis move would ‘reinforce credibility’: SummersTuesday’s unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/-they-should-do-100-traders-debate-the-fed-s-next-rate-move?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/-they-should-do-100-traders-debate-the-fed-s-next-rate-move?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150110459","content_text":"‘Markets would hate it’ versus ‘the market might rally’100-point basis move would ‘reinforce credibility’: SummersTuesday’s unexpectedly hot inflation reading virtually assured markets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points next week. Wall Street then began to weigh the chance that the Fed might make a more dramatic statement.The odds for a 100 basis point rate hike jumped more than 20% after the consumer price index showed an increase from July. With hopes of a “Fed pivot” firmly dashed, the S&P 500 Index tumbled as much as 3.2%.Most investment professionals doubted that an unexpectedly high inflation reading would push the central bank off course to raise rates at their September meeting by an amount not seen since 1984.“The Fed will want to follow what the market expects and the market is really expecting a 75 basis points move -– so that’s what the Fed will do,” said Tom Di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global.But on Tuesday, Nomura economists changed their forecast for the Fed’s September meeting from a 75 to 100 basis points, writing that “a more aggressive path of interest rate hikes will be needed to combat increasingly entrenched inflation.”Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary and the President Emeritus of Harvard University, tweeted that if he was a Fed official, he would pick “a 100 basis points move to reinforce credibility.”And Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital, said that if the Fed needs to raise rates sharply, it would be best to do so quickly and get it over with.“Seventy-five is most likely, but they should do 100,” he said.Here’s what other Wall Street strategists said:Andrew Lekas, head of FICC trading at Old Mission Capital:“Oddly enough, I think the market might rally,” he said. “They want to see the Fed take things seriously on the inflation front, and the sooner we get to the end of these hikes the better.”“The knee-jerk reaction is probably lower in all risk assets, and there’s the obvious funding impact on anyone who is using leverage, but for the medium term health of the market I think 100 might make sense.”Steven Englander, head of Group-of-10 currency research at Standard Charter:“If you are on the FOMC and believe that the market needs shock and awe to lower inflation expectations, then maybe you argue for 100bps. I think it’s more sensible for the FOMC to say ‘we can keep raising rates as far as we have to but don’t have to do it at once.’”Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics:“Eleven Fed officials have made it very clear that they will not slow the pace of rate hikes until they see convincing evidence that core inflation pressure is easing on a sequential basis. These data mean that the chance of a 50bp hike next week has gone,” he said. “But the 20% chance of a 100bp hike now priced-in looks over the top.”Kate Moore, BlackRock Head of Thematic Strategy for Global Allocation:“We haven’t changed our call (75bp) but I think it’s really wise to adjust expectations around the forward path especially to the year end,” she said. “The fact that 100bps is starting to get somewhat priced into the market, it’s a bit destabilizing for the equity market.”Nisha Patel, director and portfolio manager of fixed income at Parametric:“Don’t be surprised if the Fed’s hand is forced to do 100bps. The idea that inflation had peaked has been dispelled and now the likelihood of that soft landing for the economy has only decreased. Expect long-bond yields likely to come down leading up to the September meeting as recessionary risk increases.”Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Global Investors:“Until the Fed can tame that beast, there is simply no room for a discussion on pivots or pauses.”Alex Chaloff, co-head of investment strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management:“Powell has been more careful with his communications. If we go for 100bps, I would expect we would get the same tipping of the hand as we have gotten when we did 75bps.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939054475,"gmtCreate":1662032274000,"gmtModify":1676536640830,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939054475","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9991611581,"gmtCreate":1660825627346,"gmtModify":1676536405768,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9991611581","repostId":"1162680255","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162680255","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1660823981,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162680255?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-18 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pre-Bell｜US Stock Futures Tick Higher; Bed Bath & Beyond Tumbled 14.4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162680255","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures edged up on Thursday ahead of labor market data, while investors assessed t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock index futures edged up on Thursday ahead of labor market data, while investors assessed the Federal Reserve&#39;s July meeting minutes that suggested the central bank might pursue a less aggressive monetary policy tightening path.</p><h2><b>Market Snapshot</b></h2><p>At 07:57 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 38 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.25 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc5ccd5572d0178b4179e20914709bc\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></h2><p>Kohl’s(KSS) – Kohl’s shares slid 7.2% in the premarket after the retailer cut its full-year forecast due to increased promotional activity and higher costs. Kohl’s most recent quarter beat Street forecasts for revenue and profit.</p><p>BJ’s Wholesale(BJ) – The warehouse retailer beat estimates by 26 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.06 per share and revenue also topped forecasts. Comparable store sales increased more than expected, and the stock rallied 5.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Tapestry(TPR) – Tapestry moved between gains and losses in premarket action after its earnings came in above consensus despite sales that were slightly short of forecasts. The company behind luxury brands Coach and Kate Spade also raised its quarterly dividend by 20%.</p><p>Estee Lauder(EL) – Estee Lauder shares fell 1.3% in the premarket after the cosmetics maker forecast full-year sales below consensus, due to Covid-related lockdowns in China. Estee Lauder’s profit and revenue for its most recent quarter beat Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Canadian Solar(CSIQ) – The solar equipment and services company reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and solar module shipments that were at the high end of its prior forecast. Canadian Solar also raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its stock jumped 6.2% in premarket trading.</p><p>Bath &amp; Body Works(BBWI) – Bath &amp; Body Works reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, but gave a current-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. The personal care products retailer also said it eliminated 130 positions as it moves to control costs and become more efficient.</p><p>Cisco Systems(CSCO) – Cisco rallied 5% in premarket trading after beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. The networking equipment maker also gave a stronger-than-expected outlook for the current quarter as supply chain issues ease.</p><p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) – Bed Bath &amp; Beyond tumbled 14.4% in the premarket after investor Ryan Cohen filed a notice of intent to sell 7.78 million shares of the housewares retailer. Cohen’s prior purchases of call options had contributed to a buying spree in Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, with the stock up in 15 of the past 16 sessions and increasing more than five-fold in value over that time.</p><p>Wolfspeed(WOLF) – Wolfspeed rocketed higher by 20.9% in the premarket after the semiconductor company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that beat consensus estimates. It also projected a loss for the current quarter that falls largely below what analysts had been anticipating.</p><p>DCP Midstream(DCP) – DCP Midstream added 1.7% in premarket trading after refinerPhillips 66offered to buy the pipeline operator’s publicly held shares for $34.75 per share.</p><h2><b>Market News</b></h2><h3>Kohl&#39;s Shares Tumbled 10% as Annual Profit Forecast Cut</h3><p>Kohl&#39;s Corp  cut its full-year profit forecast on Thursday, squeezed by steeper discounts and higher costs amid dwindling demand for clothing and shoes in the face of high inflation.</p><p>The company said it expects 2022 earnings per share of  $2.80 to $3.20, compared with its previous forecast of $6.45 to $6.85. Analysts on average expect a profit of $4.06 per share, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><h3>Amazon Tests TikTok Style In-App Feature</h3><p>Amazon is testing a feature in its app that would show users a TikTok-style photo and video feed of products for shoppers to share with other users. The test is currently visible to a small number of Amazon employees, according to a person familiar with it.</p><p>Amazon joins other major technology companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. that have attempted to bump up engagement through short videos and an endless stream of content.</p><h3>Fed Officials Saw Need to Slow Rate-Hike Pace “At Some Point”</h3><p>Federal Reserve officials agreed last month on the need to eventually dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes but also wanted to gauge how their monetary tightening was working toward curbing US inflation.</p><p>“As the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday in Washington.</p><h3>Ryan Cohen Reveals Plans to Sell Bed Bath &amp; beyond Shares, Leaving Meme Stock Traders Behind</h3><p>In a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Cohen&#39;s venture capital and activist firm, RC Ventures, said it planned to sell its entire 11.8% stake in Bed, Bath &amp; Beyond within the next 90 days.</p><p>An investment firm must give notice about a planned sale when it or its affiliates plan to sell over 5,000 shares, or $50,000 worth of stock, that isn&#39;t registered through other filings.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-Bell｜US Stock Futures Tick Higher; Bed Bath & Beyond Tumbled 14.4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-Bell｜US Stock Futures Tick Higher; Bed Bath & Beyond Tumbled 14.4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-18 19:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stock index futures edged up on Thursday ahead of labor market data, while investors assessed the Federal Reserve&#39;s July meeting minutes that suggested the central bank might pursue a less aggressive monetary policy tightening path.</p><h2><b>Market Snapshot</b></h2><p>At 07:57 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 38 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.25 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cc5ccd5572d0178b4179e20914709bc\" tg-width=\"444\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2><b>Pre-Market Movers</b></h2><p>Kohl’s(KSS) – Kohl’s shares slid 7.2% in the premarket after the retailer cut its full-year forecast due to increased promotional activity and higher costs. Kohl’s most recent quarter beat Street forecasts for revenue and profit.</p><p>BJ’s Wholesale(BJ) – The warehouse retailer beat estimates by 26 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.06 per share and revenue also topped forecasts. Comparable store sales increased more than expected, and the stock rallied 5.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Tapestry(TPR) – Tapestry moved between gains and losses in premarket action after its earnings came in above consensus despite sales that were slightly short of forecasts. The company behind luxury brands Coach and Kate Spade also raised its quarterly dividend by 20%.</p><p>Estee Lauder(EL) – Estee Lauder shares fell 1.3% in the premarket after the cosmetics maker forecast full-year sales below consensus, due to Covid-related lockdowns in China. Estee Lauder’s profit and revenue for its most recent quarter beat Wall Street estimates.</p><p>Canadian Solar(CSIQ) – The solar equipment and services company reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and solar module shipments that were at the high end of its prior forecast. Canadian Solar also raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its stock jumped 6.2% in premarket trading.</p><p>Bath &amp; Body Works(BBWI) – Bath &amp; Body Works reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, but gave a current-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. The personal care products retailer also said it eliminated 130 positions as it moves to control costs and become more efficient.</p><p>Cisco Systems(CSCO) – Cisco rallied 5% in premarket trading after beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. The networking equipment maker also gave a stronger-than-expected outlook for the current quarter as supply chain issues ease.</p><p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) – Bed Bath &amp; Beyond tumbled 14.4% in the premarket after investor Ryan Cohen filed a notice of intent to sell 7.78 million shares of the housewares retailer. Cohen’s prior purchases of call options had contributed to a buying spree in Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, with the stock up in 15 of the past 16 sessions and increasing more than five-fold in value over that time.</p><p>Wolfspeed(WOLF) – Wolfspeed rocketed higher by 20.9% in the premarket after the semiconductor company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that beat consensus estimates. It also projected a loss for the current quarter that falls largely below what analysts had been anticipating.</p><p>DCP Midstream(DCP) – DCP Midstream added 1.7% in premarket trading after refinerPhillips 66offered to buy the pipeline operator’s publicly held shares for $34.75 per share.</p><h2><b>Market News</b></h2><h3>Kohl&#39;s Shares Tumbled 10% as Annual Profit Forecast Cut</h3><p>Kohl&#39;s Corp  cut its full-year profit forecast on Thursday, squeezed by steeper discounts and higher costs amid dwindling demand for clothing and shoes in the face of high inflation.</p><p>The company said it expects 2022 earnings per share of  $2.80 to $3.20, compared with its previous forecast of $6.45 to $6.85. Analysts on average expect a profit of $4.06 per share, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><h3>Amazon Tests TikTok Style In-App Feature</h3><p>Amazon is testing a feature in its app that would show users a TikTok-style photo and video feed of products for shoppers to share with other users. The test is currently visible to a small number of Amazon employees, according to a person familiar with it.</p><p>Amazon joins other major technology companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. that have attempted to bump up engagement through short videos and an endless stream of content.</p><h3>Fed Officials Saw Need to Slow Rate-Hike Pace “At Some Point”</h3><p>Federal Reserve officials agreed last month on the need to eventually dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes but also wanted to gauge how their monetary tightening was working toward curbing US inflation.</p><p>“As the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday in Washington.</p><h3>Ryan Cohen Reveals Plans to Sell Bed Bath &amp; beyond Shares, Leaving Meme Stock Traders Behind</h3><p>In a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Cohen&#39;s venture capital and activist firm, RC Ventures, said it planned to sell its entire 11.8% stake in Bed, Bath &amp; Beyond within the next 90 days.</p><p>An investment firm must give notice about a planned sale when it or its affiliates plan to sell over 5,000 shares, or $50,000 worth of stock, that isn&#39;t registered through other filings.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162680255","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures edged up on Thursday ahead of labor market data, while investors assessed the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes that suggested the central bank might pursue a less aggressive monetary policy tightening path.Market SnapshotAt 07:57 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 38 points, or 0.11%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.14%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.25 points, or 0.15%.Pre-Market MoversKohl’s(KSS) – Kohl’s shares slid 7.2% in the premarket after the retailer cut its full-year forecast due to increased promotional activity and higher costs. Kohl’s most recent quarter beat Street forecasts for revenue and profit.BJ’s Wholesale(BJ) – The warehouse retailer beat estimates by 26 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.06 per share and revenue also topped forecasts. Comparable store sales increased more than expected, and the stock rallied 5.4% in premarket trading.Tapestry(TPR) – Tapestry moved between gains and losses in premarket action after its earnings came in above consensus despite sales that were slightly short of forecasts. The company behind luxury brands Coach and Kate Spade also raised its quarterly dividend by 20%.Estee Lauder(EL) – Estee Lauder shares fell 1.3% in the premarket after the cosmetics maker forecast full-year sales below consensus, due to Covid-related lockdowns in China. Estee Lauder’s profit and revenue for its most recent quarter beat Wall Street estimates.Canadian Solar(CSIQ) – The solar equipment and services company reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and solar module shipments that were at the high end of its prior forecast. Canadian Solar also raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its stock jumped 6.2% in premarket trading.Bath & Body Works(BBWI) – Bath & Body Works reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue, but gave a current-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. The personal care products retailer also said it eliminated 130 positions as it moves to control costs and become more efficient.Cisco Systems(CSCO) – Cisco rallied 5% in premarket trading after beating top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter. The networking equipment maker also gave a stronger-than-expected outlook for the current quarter as supply chain issues ease.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) – Bed Bath & Beyond tumbled 14.4% in the premarket after investor Ryan Cohen filed a notice of intent to sell 7.78 million shares of the housewares retailer. Cohen’s prior purchases of call options had contributed to a buying spree in Bed Bath & Beyond, with the stock up in 15 of the past 16 sessions and increasing more than five-fold in value over that time.Wolfspeed(WOLF) – Wolfspeed rocketed higher by 20.9% in the premarket after the semiconductor company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that beat consensus estimates. It also projected a loss for the current quarter that falls largely below what analysts had been anticipating.DCP Midstream(DCP) – DCP Midstream added 1.7% in premarket trading after refinerPhillips 66offered to buy the pipeline operator’s publicly held shares for $34.75 per share.Market NewsKohl's Shares Tumbled 10% as Annual Profit Forecast CutKohl's Corp  cut its full-year profit forecast on Thursday, squeezed by steeper discounts and higher costs amid dwindling demand for clothing and shoes in the face of high inflation.The company said it expects 2022 earnings per share of  $2.80 to $3.20, compared with its previous forecast of $6.45 to $6.85. Analysts on average expect a profit of $4.06 per share, according to Refinitiv IBES data.Amazon Tests TikTok Style In-App FeatureAmazon is testing a feature in its app that would show users a TikTok-style photo and video feed of products for shoppers to share with other users. The test is currently visible to a small number of Amazon employees, according to a person familiar with it.Amazon joins other major technology companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. that have attempted to bump up engagement through short videos and an endless stream of content.Fed Officials Saw Need to Slow Rate-Hike Pace “At Some Point”Federal Reserve officials agreed last month on the need to eventually dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes but also wanted to gauge how their monetary tightening was working toward curbing US inflation.“As the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday in Washington.Ryan Cohen Reveals Plans to Sell Bed Bath & beyond Shares, Leaving Meme Stock Traders BehindIn a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Cohen's venture capital and activist firm, RC Ventures, said it planned to sell its entire 11.8% stake in Bed, Bath & Beyond within the next 90 days.An investment firm must give notice about a planned sale when it or its affiliates plan to sell over 5,000 shares, or $50,000 worth of stock, that isn't registered through other filings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905059999,"gmtCreate":1659776632913,"gmtModify":1703766486998,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905059999","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock&#39;s selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba&#39;s history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market&#39;s cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba&#39;s rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to &#34;outweigh any favorable valuation.&#34;</p><p>Considering Alibaba&#39;s long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock&#39;s downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a &#34;valuation reset&#34; in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors&#39; confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors&#39; confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country&#39;s largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba&#39;s business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company&#39;s cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit&#39;s market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei&#39;s cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba&#39;s consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba&#39;s highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment&#39;s revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers&#39; pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba&#39;s comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba&#39;s deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba&#39;s growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (&#34;HFCAA&#34;)</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors&#39; fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (&#34;CSRC&#34;) is &#34;considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,&#34; but the agency would still like the ability to &#34;withhold sensitive data from inspection&#34; where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess &#34;unredacted&#34; audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries &#34;have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.&#34;</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given &#34;increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia&#39;s largest economy.&#34; Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while &#34;Florida&#39;s pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.&#34; Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba&#39;s recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was &#34;about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.&#34; Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock&#39;s future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company&#39;s addition to the SEC&#39;s HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the &#34;618&#34; bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba&#39;s recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba&#39;s core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment &#34;declined mid-single-digit y/y&#34; during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba&#39;s &#34;88VIP&#34; members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period&#39;s GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba&#39;s recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba&#39;s international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba&#39;s major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba&#39;s plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU&#39;s removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba&#39;s ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba&#39;s actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba&#39;s growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba&#39;s business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba&#39;s growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector&#39;s risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China&#39;s long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors&#39; confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba&#39;s fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9075308879,"gmtCreate":1658141166891,"gmtModify":1676536111292,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075308879","repostId":"1176257132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176257132","pubTimestamp":1658116148,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176257132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-18 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Qualitative Breakdown Of $500 Billion In Disappeared Market Cap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176257132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA has lost two-thirds (>$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020.This artic","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA has lost two-thirds (&gt;$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020.</li><li>This article will break down the lost $500 bn into qualitative components:(i) lower profitability, (ii) slower growth, and (iii) higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors.</li><li>Current market valuations are effectively assuming these effects will persist into perpetuity.</li><li>Out of the three, lower profitability is likely reflective of a structural shift, but the other two may prove temporary and could change with time.</li></ul><p>NYSE:BABA has lost two-thirds (&gt;$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020. This article will review the tangible economic effects of the SAMR’s anticompetition policies on BABA’s business performance, including: (i) lower profitability, (ii) slower growth and (iii) higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors. Current market valuations are effectively assuming these effects will persist into perpetuity. Out of the three, lower profitability is likely reflective of a structural shift, but the other two may prove to be temporary and could change with time.</p><p><b>Lower profitability</b></p><p>A direct consequence of SAMR’s rules was to tilt the market landscape in favour of number two and smaller players relative to the incumbent. Indeed, management have repeatedly mentioned “increased competition” impacting the company’s core e-commerce segment on earnings calls since the regulatory shakeout.</p><p>To cope, (as well as to proactively portray the image of a good socially-responsible corporate citizen in front of government authorities), BABA is forced to:</p><ol><li>Provide more subsidies to merchants and partners (effectively discounted pricing)</li><li>Step up investment, either in the form of direct sales and marketing dollars or “strategic initiatives” investment</li></ol><p>This has resulted in EBITA margins dropping from 27% (average of 8 quarters leading up to the quarter ending Dec 2020 (3QFY21)) to 16% (average of 4 quarters leading up to the quarter ending Dec 2021 (3QFY22)).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec9f30c463d38d513f90511dd9539909\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Company filings</p><p>Looking back to early 2018, EBITA margins similarly dropped drastically from 40% to 30% when the company first launched its “new retail” initiative and remained at that lower level since. Similarly, BABA’s current investments in strategic initiatives reflect structural changes to the company’s business mix, and the most recent gap-down in margins may be here to stay.</p><p><b>Slower Growth</b></p><p>I include slowing growth as one of the economic effects resulting from SAMR’s anticompetition policies, but anticompetitive regulations drag on BABA’s growth only to the extent that they pressure BABA to reduce merchant fees (mentioned in point 1 under &#34;Lower Profitability&#34; above), which result in customer management revenue growing slower than GMV growth.</p><p>Given BABA’s 950 million annual active consumers covers two-thirds of the country’s 1.4 billion population, it is inevitable that the company’s growth trajectory will be affected by the macroeconomic picture, and this is regardless of what SAMR does and says. I review the latest macro indicators and then express my thoughts on how I view these levels of growth rates.</p><p>Beijing is targeting 5.5% annual GDP growth for 2022, but with first half growth at 2.5%, most analysts / economists do not expect that to be achieved. The marked deceleration was in 2Q when numerous cities implemented anti-virus curbs starting in March, in line with the country’s zero tolerance towards COVID. 2Q 2022 GDP growth was 0.4% YoY, barely escaping a contraction, and is below the 1.2% forecast by economists, and down from the 4.8% recorded in 1Q 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49500b570f0b72087f0d81447c59ab9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Financial Times</p><p>As far as BABA is concerned, a more relevant metric is perhaps retail sales growth. BABA’s growth in retail GMV and GTV (combined) have slowed from 20% to 30% before 2019 to an average of 14% in 2021 (average of 4 quarters from Mar 2021 (4QFY21) to Dec 2021 (3QFY22)). A rough graph plotting that against the index of YoY change in China Retail Sales Value suggests a certain degree of correlation between the two. Retail sales over 4Q 2021 was USD 1.9 trillion, a paltry 7% increase over 4Q 2020 (even with the Singles Day shopping festival in November). BABA is due to report 1Q 2023 results around August (so there is no company GMV / GTV datapoints yet for 2022) but I note that China retail sales growth was negative for 3 out of the first 6 months of 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0830e999c0b3c721cb9eace36437be38\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg, BABA company filings</p><p>Even though there is a lot of talk about China growth being “slowest in three decades” etc., I propose to frame the picture in another way. China population (1.4 billion) is slightly more than 4 times that of US (320 million). Intuitively, that implies that when the average Chinese is one-quarter as rich as the average American*, their consumption economy will be same size as that of US. In other words, there is a long runway for growth, provided that China is able to shift from “easy” growth (large-scale infrastructure projects) to quality growth (improved labour productivity, technological advancements, etc.). If so, then even after the Chinese consumption economy catches up with that of the US in terms of absolute size, there is still the differential between income per capita to bridge.</p><p><i>*The average Chinese is less than one-quarter as well off as the average American. As of 2021, China constant GDP per capita was$11,200vs US constant GDP per capita of$61,280according to data from the St Louis Fed.</i></p><p><b>Higher risk premiums / required rates of return</b></p><p>Most people are likely to agree that the stock is currently trading at an undervaluation, regardless of whether you are a BABA fan or not. Lower profitability and slower growth are two explaining factors, but they seem insufficient to fully account for such a large gap - $500 billion is <b>a lot</b>. The last component is higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors. This is what people call the “unknowns”, “uncertainties”, or CCP wildcard risk, hanging over the stock, which should be thought of scientifically as risk premiums (multiple compression in some ways is the flip side of the same coin) instead of some elusive construct. Investors are spooked and they need higher required returns to compensate.</p><p><b>Closing Remarks</b></p><p>Companies can survive, and even thrive, following intense regulatory cycles. Take the Dodd-Frank Act as example, the introduction of close to 28,000 new rules and restrictions curtailed banks’ revenue pools, doubled their capital requirements and compliance costs. On the upside, in the years following the passage of Dodd-Frank, banks restructured, changed their business mix, became more efficient, learned to optimize capital, and developed new competitive edges in areas of technology and marketing. This regulatory adaptation separated the winners from the losers. Starting in 2013, a few large bank stocks went on to significantly beat the broader market over the rest of the decade. In BABA’s case, the market has reacted to the 2020-2021 developments as if they are killer blows to the company, when instead they are more catalysts for change.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Qualitative Breakdown Of $500 Billion In Disappeared Market Cap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Qualitative Breakdown Of $500 Billion In Disappeared Market Cap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-18 11:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523786-baba-a-qualitative-breakdown-of-500-billion-in-disappeared-market-cap><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA has lost two-thirds (>$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020.This article will break down the lost $500 bn into qualitative components:(i) lower profitability, (ii) slower...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523786-baba-a-qualitative-breakdown-of-500-billion-in-disappeared-market-cap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523786-baba-a-qualitative-breakdown-of-500-billion-in-disappeared-market-cap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176257132","content_text":"SummaryBABA has lost two-thirds (>$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020.This article will break down the lost $500 bn into qualitative components:(i) lower profitability, (ii) slower growth, and (iii) higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors.Current market valuations are effectively assuming these effects will persist into perpetuity.Out of the three, lower profitability is likely reflective of a structural shift, but the other two may prove temporary and could change with time.NYSE:BABA has lost two-thirds (>$500 billion) in market cap since its peak in late 2020. This article will review the tangible economic effects of the SAMR’s anticompetition policies on BABA’s business performance, including: (i) lower profitability, (ii) slower growth and (iii) higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors. Current market valuations are effectively assuming these effects will persist into perpetuity. Out of the three, lower profitability is likely reflective of a structural shift, but the other two may prove to be temporary and could change with time.Lower profitabilityA direct consequence of SAMR’s rules was to tilt the market landscape in favour of number two and smaller players relative to the incumbent. Indeed, management have repeatedly mentioned “increased competition” impacting the company’s core e-commerce segment on earnings calls since the regulatory shakeout.To cope, (as well as to proactively portray the image of a good socially-responsible corporate citizen in front of government authorities), BABA is forced to:Provide more subsidies to merchants and partners (effectively discounted pricing)Step up investment, either in the form of direct sales and marketing dollars or “strategic initiatives” investmentThis has resulted in EBITA margins dropping from 27% (average of 8 quarters leading up to the quarter ending Dec 2020 (3QFY21)) to 16% (average of 4 quarters leading up to the quarter ending Dec 2021 (3QFY22)).Company filingsLooking back to early 2018, EBITA margins similarly dropped drastically from 40% to 30% when the company first launched its “new retail” initiative and remained at that lower level since. Similarly, BABA’s current investments in strategic initiatives reflect structural changes to the company’s business mix, and the most recent gap-down in margins may be here to stay.Slower GrowthI include slowing growth as one of the economic effects resulting from SAMR’s anticompetition policies, but anticompetitive regulations drag on BABA’s growth only to the extent that they pressure BABA to reduce merchant fees (mentioned in point 1 under \"Lower Profitability\" above), which result in customer management revenue growing slower than GMV growth.Given BABA’s 950 million annual active consumers covers two-thirds of the country’s 1.4 billion population, it is inevitable that the company’s growth trajectory will be affected by the macroeconomic picture, and this is regardless of what SAMR does and says. I review the latest macro indicators and then express my thoughts on how I view these levels of growth rates.Beijing is targeting 5.5% annual GDP growth for 2022, but with first half growth at 2.5%, most analysts / economists do not expect that to be achieved. The marked deceleration was in 2Q when numerous cities implemented anti-virus curbs starting in March, in line with the country’s zero tolerance towards COVID. 2Q 2022 GDP growth was 0.4% YoY, barely escaping a contraction, and is below the 1.2% forecast by economists, and down from the 4.8% recorded in 1Q 2022.Financial TimesAs far as BABA is concerned, a more relevant metric is perhaps retail sales growth. BABA’s growth in retail GMV and GTV (combined) have slowed from 20% to 30% before 2019 to an average of 14% in 2021 (average of 4 quarters from Mar 2021 (4QFY21) to Dec 2021 (3QFY22)). A rough graph plotting that against the index of YoY change in China Retail Sales Value suggests a certain degree of correlation between the two. Retail sales over 4Q 2021 was USD 1.9 trillion, a paltry 7% increase over 4Q 2020 (even with the Singles Day shopping festival in November). BABA is due to report 1Q 2023 results around August (so there is no company GMV / GTV datapoints yet for 2022) but I note that China retail sales growth was negative for 3 out of the first 6 months of 2022.Bloomberg, BABA company filingsEven though there is a lot of talk about China growth being “slowest in three decades” etc., I propose to frame the picture in another way. China population (1.4 billion) is slightly more than 4 times that of US (320 million). Intuitively, that implies that when the average Chinese is one-quarter as rich as the average American*, their consumption economy will be same size as that of US. In other words, there is a long runway for growth, provided that China is able to shift from “easy” growth (large-scale infrastructure projects) to quality growth (improved labour productivity, technological advancements, etc.). If so, then even after the Chinese consumption economy catches up with that of the US in terms of absolute size, there is still the differential between income per capita to bridge.*The average Chinese is less than one-quarter as well off as the average American. As of 2021, China constant GDP per capita was$11,200vs US constant GDP per capita of$61,280according to data from the St Louis Fed.Higher risk premiums / required rates of returnMost people are likely to agree that the stock is currently trading at an undervaluation, regardless of whether you are a BABA fan or not. Lower profitability and slower growth are two explaining factors, but they seem insufficient to fully account for such a large gap - $500 billion is a lot. The last component is higher risk premiums / required rates of returns by investors. This is what people call the “unknowns”, “uncertainties”, or CCP wildcard risk, hanging over the stock, which should be thought of scientifically as risk premiums (multiple compression in some ways is the flip side of the same coin) instead of some elusive construct. Investors are spooked and they need higher required returns to compensate.Closing RemarksCompanies can survive, and even thrive, following intense regulatory cycles. Take the Dodd-Frank Act as example, the introduction of close to 28,000 new rules and restrictions curtailed banks’ revenue pools, doubled their capital requirements and compliance costs. On the upside, in the years following the passage of Dodd-Frank, banks restructured, changed their business mix, became more efficient, learned to optimize capital, and developed new competitive edges in areas of technology and marketing. This regulatory adaptation separated the winners from the losers. Starting in 2013, a few large bank stocks went on to significantly beat the broader market over the rest of the decade. In BABA’s case, the market has reacted to the 2020-2021 developments as if they are killer blows to the company, when instead they are more catalysts for change.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9073234825,"gmtCreate":1657345574567,"gmtModify":1676535995997,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9073234825","repostId":"1106697268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106697268","pubTimestamp":1657337354,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106697268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 11:29","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"NIO: June Deliveries Show Growth Making A Comeback","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106697268","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAfter months of weakness, NIO’s deliveries soared back strongly in June.ET7 sedan deliveries increased 155.7% month over month and now represent a third of all of NIO's product deliveries.ET5 a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>After months of weakness, NIO’s deliveries soared back strongly in June.</li><li>ET7 sedan deliveries increased 155.7% month over month and now represent a third of all of NIO&#39;s product deliveries.</li><li>ET5 and ET7 production are set to exceed volume production of the ES6 this year.</li></ul><p>NIO&#39;s (NYSE:NIO) first-quarter production and delivery performance was greatly impacted by a variety of factors, including Chinese holidays and COVID-related shutdowns that limited factory output levels. In June, however, NIO experienced a surge in deliveries due to factories coming back online and accelerating demand for NIO’s first sedan product, the ET7. While COVID-19 shutdowns remain a significant risk factor going forward, a recovery in delivery volumes could drive an upwards revaluation of NIO’s shares.</p><p><b>Why NIO’s growth will be determined by sedan production going forward</b></p><p>NIO submitted its delivery card for June last week which revealed that the electric vehicle manufacturer delivered 12,961 electric vehicles, showing 60.3% year-over-year growth. On a month-over-month basis, NIO’s deliveries increased a massive 84.5% which was the fastest growth rate when compared against rival companies XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). XPeng&#39;s month-over-month delivery growth rate was 51.1% while Li Auto saw 13.3% month-over-month growth.</p><p>XPeng, which currently has the fastest year-over-year delivery growth of the Top Three electric vehicle manufacturers delivered the most EVs last month: 15,295, showing 133% growth. Li Auto delivered 13,024 Li ONE sport utility vehicles in June, showing 68.9% year-over-year growth.</p><table><tbody><tr><td><p>Deliveries</p></td><td><p>April</p></td><td><p>April Y/Y Growth</p></td><td><p>May</p></td><td><p>May Y/Y Growth</p></td><td><p>June</p></td><td><p>June Y/Y Growth</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>NIO</p></td><td><p>5,074</p></td><td><p>-28.6%</p></td><td><p>7,024</p></td><td><p>4.7%</p></td><td><p>12,961</p></td><td><p>60.3%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>XPEV</p></td><td><p>9,002</p></td><td><p>75.0%</p></td><td><p>10,125</p></td><td><p>78.0%</p></td><td><p>15,295</p></td><td><p>133.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>LI</p></td><td><p>4,167</p></td><td><p>-24.8%</p></td><td><p>11,496</p></td><td><p>165.9%</p></td><td><p>13,024</p></td><td><p>68.9%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Author)</p><p>NIO’s delivery card for June contained further evidence that sedan products are going to be NIO’s future. The electric vehicle company delivered 5,100 ES6s, 1,828 EC6s and 1,684 ES8s which are all sport utility vehicles. Additionally, NIO delivered a massive 4,349 ET7s, the firm’s first sedan product that started to sell in China only in March.</p><p>NIO’s delivery growth in June has been driven by two models especially: The ET7 which has seen month-over-month delivery growth of a massive 154.8% and the ES6 which saw a delivery increase of 73.7% on a monthly basis. NIO’s ES6 model still has the largest delivery share (currently 39.3%) and NIO produces by far the largest number of SUVs in the ES6 product line. But because of the surge in demand for electric vehicle sedans, going forward, the ET7 is set to replace NIO’s ES6 as the most important vehicle in NIO’s product portfolio. With NIO’s ET5 deliveries expected to start in September, the electric vehicle start-up could generate about half of its deliveries and sales from sedans, not SUVs, by year-end.</p><p>The share of ET7 deliveries has consistently increased throughout the second-quarter as well: in April, May and June, the delivery shares of the ET7 were 13.7%, 24.3% and 33.6%. Considering that NIO will add sedan volume through the ET5, especially in the fourth quarter, sedan deliveries are likely going to be the biggest driver for NIO’s delivery growth in the second half of 2022 and beyond.</p><p><b>NIO has long-term potential, but short-term setbacks should be expected</b></p><p>NIO’s valuation today is much cheaper than a year ago. During the pandemic, shares of NIO traded as high as $65. But investors appear to have stopped caring much about NIO’s delivery growth prospects lately which is understandable considering that EV deliveries have slowed down industry-wide in the first quarter. While short-term setbacks have to be expected, especially regarding new COVID-19 outbreaks in China, NIO’s growth prospects are attractive in the long term.</p><p>NIO is expected to grow revenues 60% this year to $9.07B, indicating a price-to-sales ratio of 3.8X. The forward P-S ratio, based on expected sales of $15.96B, implies a P-S ratio of 2.2X and revenue growth of 76%... so the market even expects an acceleration in revenue growth in FY 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8783ef7161e7a0ff94ffa153c81a2a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><b>Risks with NIO</b></p><p>The biggest risk for NIO, as I see it, is a volatile short-term delivery pattern that makes it hard for the market to predict NIO’s delivery potential with any kind of accuracy. COVID-19 shutdowns are still a threat to electric vehicle manufacturers as well because they could impact manufacturing hubs that produce electric vehicles or dampen demand for NIO’s products. Xi’an, a city of 13M, was partially shut down on Wednesday after a few cases of a new COVID-19 variant have been detected. China’s heavy-handed approach to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and its variants is a big risk for NIO’s delivery potential as well as the stock in the short term. What would change my mind about NIO is if delivery growth slowed down and the firm&#39;s sedan ramp started to disappoint.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>NIO’s June ramp in production and deliveries was surprisingly good. The surge in ET7 deliveries is the key take-away for investors, because deliveries started only three months ago and sedans now already account for a third of NIO’s delivery volume. Considering that ET5 deliveries are set to start in September, I believe NIO’s long-term delivery potential, especially in the sedan market, is underrated. However, since NIO faces uncertain short-term delivery prospects due to new COVID-19 outbreaks in China, I have a neutral opinion on NIO.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: June Deliveries Show Growth Making A Comeback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: June Deliveries Show Growth Making A Comeback\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522180-nio-growth-is-making-a-comeback?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A58><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAfter months of weakness, NIO’s deliveries soared back strongly in June.ET7 sedan deliveries increased 155.7% month over month and now represent a third of all of NIO's product deliveries.ET5 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522180-nio-growth-is-making-a-comeback?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A58\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522180-nio-growth-is-making-a-comeback?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A58","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106697268","content_text":"SummaryAfter months of weakness, NIO’s deliveries soared back strongly in June.ET7 sedan deliveries increased 155.7% month over month and now represent a third of all of NIO's product deliveries.ET5 and ET7 production are set to exceed volume production of the ES6 this year.NIO's (NYSE:NIO) first-quarter production and delivery performance was greatly impacted by a variety of factors, including Chinese holidays and COVID-related shutdowns that limited factory output levels. In June, however, NIO experienced a surge in deliveries due to factories coming back online and accelerating demand for NIO’s first sedan product, the ET7. While COVID-19 shutdowns remain a significant risk factor going forward, a recovery in delivery volumes could drive an upwards revaluation of NIO’s shares.Why NIO’s growth will be determined by sedan production going forwardNIO submitted its delivery card for June last week which revealed that the electric vehicle manufacturer delivered 12,961 electric vehicles, showing 60.3% year-over-year growth. On a month-over-month basis, NIO’s deliveries increased a massive 84.5% which was the fastest growth rate when compared against rival companies XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). XPeng's month-over-month delivery growth rate was 51.1% while Li Auto saw 13.3% month-over-month growth.XPeng, which currently has the fastest year-over-year delivery growth of the Top Three electric vehicle manufacturers delivered the most EVs last month: 15,295, showing 133% growth. Li Auto delivered 13,024 Li ONE sport utility vehicles in June, showing 68.9% year-over-year growth.DeliveriesAprilApril Y/Y GrowthMayMay Y/Y GrowthJuneJune Y/Y GrowthNIO5,074-28.6%7,0244.7%12,96160.3%XPEV9,00275.0%10,12578.0%15,295133.0%LI4,167-24.8%11,496165.9%13,02468.9%(Source: Author)NIO’s delivery card for June contained further evidence that sedan products are going to be NIO’s future. The electric vehicle company delivered 5,100 ES6s, 1,828 EC6s and 1,684 ES8s which are all sport utility vehicles. Additionally, NIO delivered a massive 4,349 ET7s, the firm’s first sedan product that started to sell in China only in March.NIO’s delivery growth in June has been driven by two models especially: The ET7 which has seen month-over-month delivery growth of a massive 154.8% and the ES6 which saw a delivery increase of 73.7% on a monthly basis. NIO’s ES6 model still has the largest delivery share (currently 39.3%) and NIO produces by far the largest number of SUVs in the ES6 product line. But because of the surge in demand for electric vehicle sedans, going forward, the ET7 is set to replace NIO’s ES6 as the most important vehicle in NIO’s product portfolio. With NIO’s ET5 deliveries expected to start in September, the electric vehicle start-up could generate about half of its deliveries and sales from sedans, not SUVs, by year-end.The share of ET7 deliveries has consistently increased throughout the second-quarter as well: in April, May and June, the delivery shares of the ET7 were 13.7%, 24.3% and 33.6%. Considering that NIO will add sedan volume through the ET5, especially in the fourth quarter, sedan deliveries are likely going to be the biggest driver for NIO’s delivery growth in the second half of 2022 and beyond.NIO has long-term potential, but short-term setbacks should be expectedNIO’s valuation today is much cheaper than a year ago. During the pandemic, shares of NIO traded as high as $65. But investors appear to have stopped caring much about NIO’s delivery growth prospects lately which is understandable considering that EV deliveries have slowed down industry-wide in the first quarter. While short-term setbacks have to be expected, especially regarding new COVID-19 outbreaks in China, NIO’s growth prospects are attractive in the long term.NIO is expected to grow revenues 60% this year to $9.07B, indicating a price-to-sales ratio of 3.8X. The forward P-S ratio, based on expected sales of $15.96B, implies a P-S ratio of 2.2X and revenue growth of 76%... so the market even expects an acceleration in revenue growth in FY 2023.Data by YChartsRisks with NIOThe biggest risk for NIO, as I see it, is a volatile short-term delivery pattern that makes it hard for the market to predict NIO’s delivery potential with any kind of accuracy. COVID-19 shutdowns are still a threat to electric vehicle manufacturers as well because they could impact manufacturing hubs that produce electric vehicles or dampen demand for NIO’s products. Xi’an, a city of 13M, was partially shut down on Wednesday after a few cases of a new COVID-19 variant have been detected. China’s heavy-handed approach to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and its variants is a big risk for NIO’s delivery potential as well as the stock in the short term. What would change my mind about NIO is if delivery growth slowed down and the firm's sedan ramp started to disappoint.Final thoughtsNIO’s June ramp in production and deliveries was surprisingly good. The surge in ET7 deliveries is the key take-away for investors, because deliveries started only three months ago and sedans now already account for a third of NIO’s delivery volume. Considering that ET5 deliveries are set to start in September, I believe NIO’s long-term delivery potential, especially in the sedan market, is underrated. However, since NIO faces uncertain short-term delivery prospects due to new COVID-19 outbreaks in China, I have a neutral opinion on NIO.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9013818339,"gmtCreate":1648701027255,"gmtModify":1676534382671,"author":{"id":"3572043809285615","authorId":"3572043809285615","name":"NP_YT","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fad9f70abb174e3e09e4caf3f9c0c13a","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572043809285615","authorIdStr":"3572043809285615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9013818339","repostId":"2223334013","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}