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Chloe26

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2022-09-05

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Palantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering

2022-06-29

Pltr

Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like

2022-02-26

Cybersecurity

3 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy Right Now on Russia-Ukraine Fears

2022-10-06

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SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?

2022-06-26

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market

2022-06-20

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Looking for the Next FAANG Stocks? 4 Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever

2022-06-20

Apple

Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear

2022-03-19

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DocuSign Stock Rises as CEO Buy ~$5M in Company Shares

2022-10-10

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The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over

2022-06-12

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Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again

2022-03-26

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Palantir: No Longer Significantly Undervalued, But Still A Buy

2022-08-19

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Alibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth

2022-07-23

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Is the Stock Market Going Up? It Might Depend on the Definition of Recession

2022-07-07

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Federal Reserve Officials Saw Potential to Be More Hawkish If Inflation Persists

2022-05-23

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How To Invest In A Bear Market

2022-05-22

Pltr

Palantir Gets Interesting At $5

2022-08-27

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Did the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?

2022-08-26

Nvidia

Was Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?

2022-08-02

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Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

2022-07-07

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Growth Stocks Are Soaring as a Recession Looms Large

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Why rebalance is required? List of Nasdaq 100 index Top 20 stocks (current). Personal view of rebalance exercise. 3 “new” stocks to benefit from rebalancing (I think)? If you like to read it, click on above “Blue Title”. Show some love, give a “Like”, “Share” &amp; “Re-post” after reading ok. Thanks. Monday - 24 July 2023 Time flies. Monday, 24 July 2023 was d-day where Nasdaq 100 rebalancing would be effected, when trading begins. Aftermath of Previous “Rebalance”. According to Nasdaq’s VP &amp; Global Hd of index product and operations, Cameron Lilja: In 1998 rebalancing","listText":"On 13 Jul 2023, I have posted about <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/197520800948384\" target=\"_blank\">Nasdaq Rebalance, FAANG &amp; More Affected?</a> Some pf the topics covered (extracts): When will rebalance occur? Why rebalance is required? List of Nasdaq 100 index Top 20 stocks (current). Personal view of rebalance exercise. 3 “new” stocks to benefit from rebalancing (I think)? If you like to read it, click on above “Blue Title”. Show some love, give a “Like”, “Share” &amp; “Re-post” after reading ok. Thanks. Monday - 24 July 2023 Time flies. Monday, 24 July 2023 was d-day where Nasdaq 100 rebalancing would be effected, when trading begins. Aftermath of Previous “Rebalance”. According to Nasdaq’s VP &amp; Global Hd of index product and operations, Cameron Lilja: In 1998 rebalancing","text":"On 13 Jul 2023, I have posted about Nasdaq Rebalance, FAANG & More Affected? Some pf the topics covered (extracts): When will rebalance occur? Why rebalance is required? List of Nasdaq 100 index Top 20 stocks (current). Personal view of rebalance exercise. 3 “new” stocks to benefit from rebalancing (I think)? If you like to read it, click on above “Blue Title”. Show some love, give a “Like”, “Share” & “Re-post” after reading ok. Thanks. Monday - 24 July 2023 Time flies. Monday, 24 July 2023 was d-day where Nasdaq 100 rebalancing would be effected, when trading begins. Aftermath of Previous “Rebalance”. According to Nasdaq’s VP & Global Hd of index product and operations, Cameron Lilja: In 1998 rebalancing","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5b1b613f76c5c61b3687a0475876c50","width":"1193","height":"583"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f10f947849e3abf49a9e3063da41fce9","width":"1809","height":"51"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f10f947849e3abf49a9e3063da41fce9","width":"1809","height":"51"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/202114440208616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946402864,"gmtCreate":1681010695559,"gmtModify":1681010699331,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946402864","repostId":"9946397627","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9946397627,"gmtCreate":1680855610770,"gmtModify":1680855683290,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"themes":[],"title":"News summary of BYD (last 2 weeks)","htmlText":"The news is taken from CNEVPost. BYD's new plant in central Chinese city Zhengzhou goes into operation April 7, 2023 14:50 GMT+8 Currently in production is the first phase of BYD's Zhengzhou base, with a planned annual capacity of 400,000 vehicles. BYD chairman calls on China to extend NEV tax exemption until 2025 April 3, 2023 17:04 GMT+8 The world economy is currently in a difficult period of complexity and change, and dealing with risks and challenges requires firm confidence and stable expectations, Wang said. BYD Mar sales breakdown: Qin 40,850, Song 40,510 April 2, 2023 20:08 GMT+8 The Qin family of models sold a record 40,850 units in March, surpassing the Song family's 40,510 units to become the best-selling BYD model for the month. BYD starts warming up for mini car Seagull Marc","listText":"The news is taken from CNEVPost. BYD's new plant in central Chinese city Zhengzhou goes into operation April 7, 2023 14:50 GMT+8 Currently in production is the first phase of BYD's Zhengzhou base, with a planned annual capacity of 400,000 vehicles. BYD chairman calls on China to extend NEV tax exemption until 2025 April 3, 2023 17:04 GMT+8 The world economy is currently in a difficult period of complexity and change, and dealing with risks and challenges requires firm confidence and stable expectations, Wang said. BYD Mar sales breakdown: Qin 40,850, Song 40,510 April 2, 2023 20:08 GMT+8 The Qin family of models sold a record 40,850 units in March, surpassing the Song family's 40,510 units to become the best-selling BYD model for the month. BYD starts warming up for mini car Seagull Marc","text":"The news is taken from CNEVPost. BYD's new plant in central Chinese city Zhengzhou goes into operation April 7, 2023 14:50 GMT+8 Currently in production is the first phase of BYD's Zhengzhou base, with a planned annual capacity of 400,000 vehicles. BYD chairman calls on China to extend NEV tax exemption until 2025 April 3, 2023 17:04 GMT+8 The world economy is currently in a difficult period of complexity and change, and dealing with risks and challenges requires firm confidence and stable expectations, Wang said. BYD Mar sales breakdown: Qin 40,850, Song 40,510 April 2, 2023 20:08 GMT+8 The Qin family of models sold a record 40,850 units in March, surpassing the Song family's 40,510 units to become the best-selling BYD model for the month. BYD starts warming up for mini car Seagull Marc","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/66a221805266e303b2e3bb942a6a36b7","width":"1456","height":"819"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ce01036bbfe209001bf74e9344b67684","width":"1456","height":"820"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b184e967b1df972bd5c380390ce332d3","width":"1456","height":"819"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946397627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":11,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946402030,"gmtCreate":1681010625820,"gmtModify":1681010629558,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946402030","repostId":"9941233887","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9941233887,"gmtCreate":1680262583349,"gmtModify":1680262602703,"author":{"id":"3527667668165440","authorId":"3527667668165440","name":"Capital_Insights","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfdc66fff48bb2b9e2d328ac5eb33100","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667668165440","authorIdStr":"3527667668165440"},"themes":[],"title":"Yardeni Research: US Stocks Could End This Year 14% Higher","htmlText":"Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni ResearchThe <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> could rally 14% by the end of the year, The Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni Research, Inc. is a sell-side consultancy providing a wide range of global investment and business strategy services.US stocks could rally 14% by the end of the year, as the recent banking turmoil will likely to lead to the Fed pausing its rate-hiking campaign, according to the Ed Yardeni.Yardeni expects measures taken by the US central bank and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, will keep the fallout in check.Like what Capital_Insights shared yesterday: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9941693214\" target=\"_blank\">global central banks shows clear a</a>","listText":"Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni ResearchThe <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.SPX\">$S&amp;P 500(.SPX)$</a> could rally 14% by the end of the year, The Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni Research, Inc. is a sell-side consultancy providing a wide range of global investment and business strategy services.US stocks could rally 14% by the end of the year, as the recent banking turmoil will likely to lead to the Fed pausing its rate-hiking campaign, according to the Ed Yardeni.Yardeni expects measures taken by the US central bank and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, will keep the fallout in check.Like what Capital_Insights shared yesterday: <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/TW/9941693214\" target=\"_blank\">global central banks shows clear a</a>","text":"Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni ResearchThe $S&P 500(.SPX)$ could rally 14% by the end of the year, The Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni said. Yardeni Research, Inc. is a sell-side consultancy providing a wide range of global investment and business strategy services.US stocks could rally 14% by the end of the year, as the recent banking turmoil will likely to lead to the Fed pausing its rate-hiking campaign, according to the Ed Yardeni.Yardeni expects measures taken by the US central bank and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, will keep the fallout in check.Like what Capital_Insights shared yesterday: global central banks shows clear a","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7b59e5ec5b2d1e1c556432b767a9c4f","width":"700","height":"394"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941233887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946406515,"gmtCreate":1681010603437,"gmtModify":1681010606970,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946406515","repostId":"9941605339","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9941605339,"gmtCreate":1680176170321,"gmtModify":1680176188330,"author":{"id":"3501196737273098","authorId":"3501196737273098","name":"Tiger_comments","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227887b200e9925968650d5db4a8bfb3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501196737273098","authorIdStr":"3501196737273098"},"themes":[],"title":"[TOPIC] Is Alibaba Really Worth $210 Given By JPMorgan Analyst?","htmlText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>’s recent decision to split its business into six different groups, its shares surged and also pushed Hang Seng Index up.After the split, these groups will be able to seek an IPO respectively. 1. Analysts of JPMorgan and Truist upgrade Alibaba’s ratingThe stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on a unanimous 18 Buys. The average target clocks in at $148.35, making room for gains of ~48% over the one-year timeframe.a. JPMorgan analyst raises <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> target to $210JPMorgan said Alibaba's shares could more than double in a best-case scenario after it separates its businesses.JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao raised his price target on Alibaba's US shares to $210, and insisted","listText":"After <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>’s recent decision to split its business into six different groups, its shares surged and also pushed Hang Seng Index up.After the split, these groups will be able to seek an IPO respectively. 1. Analysts of JPMorgan and Truist upgrade Alibaba’s ratingThe stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on a unanimous 18 Buys. The average target clocks in at $148.35, making room for gains of ~48% over the one-year timeframe.a. JPMorgan analyst raises <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> target to $210JPMorgan said Alibaba's shares could more than double in a best-case scenario after it separates its businesses.JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao raised his price target on Alibaba's US shares to $210, and insisted","text":"After $Alibaba(BABA)$’s recent decision to split its business into six different groups, its shares surged and also pushed Hang Seng Index up.After the split, these groups will be able to seek an IPO respectively. 1. Analysts of JPMorgan and Truist upgrade Alibaba’s ratingThe stock claims a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on a unanimous 18 Buys. The average target clocks in at $148.35, making room for gains of ~48% over the one-year timeframe.a. JPMorgan analyst raises $Alibaba(BABA)$ target to $210JPMorgan said Alibaba's shares could more than double in a best-case scenario after it separates its businesses.JPMorgan analyst Alex Yao raised his price target on Alibaba's US shares to $210, and insisted","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d91b82f347c669ae077b75b3b8ae4a51","width":"1389","height":"976"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cd1b0894a7fc0d6f15d19df6af88415f","width":"858","height":"668"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5277a15d8e4b2f27b618a3c4fd92e25e","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941605339","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968635018,"gmtCreate":1669203561534,"gmtModify":1676538166835,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968635018","repostId":"2285896938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285896938","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669202453,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285896938?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-23 19:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Howard Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285896938","media":"The Australian Financial Review","summary":"In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street ti","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates finally start to rise?</p><p>The founder of alternative investing giant Oaktree Capital was typically blunt in his response.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.566%2C$multiply_2%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_756%2C$x_0%2C$y_15/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_620%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/4e5d94fce2e79c353127e4ca25ff135c0f2de1c6\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"414\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Howard Marks says investors can get obsessed with the wrong things.  David Rowe</span></p><p>“Why do you care?” he said. “If I say ‘February’, what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say ‘May’, what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?”</p><p>No one ever offered a convincing answer, Marks says in his latest memo.</p><p>“Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.”</p><p>There is no shortage of parallels between Marks’ experience seven years ago and what’s happening today, in a market that’s become obsessed with macroeconomic events.</p><p>In 2015, the question of when rates would rise was on everyone’s lips, but today the frequently asked questions are about when inflation will peak, or when the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates.</p><p>Marks’ message has not changed. Not only can the majority of investors not hope to predict macroeconomic events, but they have even less chance of accurately predicting the market’s reaction to them.</p><p>More than this, though, Marks argues that this stuff doesn’t matter. Too many investors get caught up in short-term gyrations in markets that have little impact on ultimate long-term performance.</p><p>“Macro events and the ups and downs of companies’ near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of, or relevant to, companies’ long-term prospects. So, little attention should be paid to them.”</p><p>Marks’ latest memo, which is called <i>What Really Matters</i>, has extra significance for this column, given Marks let slip the title when he spoke to <i>The Australian Financial Review </i>during an interview in Sydney.</p><p>Despite the title, the memo is mainly about what doesn’t matter – starting with short-term events.</p><p>Marks’ view that trying to interpret daily movements in share prices is a mug’s game is particularly relevant in today’s market.</p><p>As New York-based hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler, of Eminence Capital, told the Sohn Hearts &amp; Minds conference last Friday, the rise and rise of passive investing – now 55 per cent of the market, up from about 25 per cent a decade ago – means share prices no longer reflect fundamental value.</p><p>“In the past, we used to look at a stock that was acting well, and you think the market is coming around to your view, but now you can just be caught up in a six-week factor trade,” he said.</p><p>But Marks would say stock price movements over weeks and months never really provided much information about fundamental value because this is not how companies work.</p><p>Which brings Marks to his second thing that doesn’t matter: a trading mentality.</p><p>“Most people don’t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business.</p><p>“Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they’re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business.”</p><p>But Marks argues investors have increasingly come to view stocks not as fractional ownership of a business, but as a tool for profit.</p><p>“[Warren] Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals. But I think that’s rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.”</p><p>But success in trading is not the mark of a successful investor, Marks says, because short-term performance – particularly over a quarter but even over a year – also doesn’t matter. Not only can it be influenced by random events, but it probably reflects more on an investor’s aggressiveness (particularly in a period of rising market) than it does skill or even timing.</p><p>Perhaps more surprisingly for an investor who has made a career out of finding and exploiting distressed opportunities, Marks also says volatility doesn’t matter nearly as much as investors think.</p><p>Partly, this comes down to what he sees as misdiagnosis of what volatility is. “I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk,” he says.</p><p>But Marks says too many investors react emotionally to volatility, rather than financially. For long-term investors, some volatility should actually be welcome, given lower volatility should mean lower returns, all things being equal. Marks quotes Buffett’s famous maxim: a lumpy 15 per cent is better than a smooth 12 per cent.</p><p>So, after all that, what does matter? Marks’ answer is simple. “What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or 10 years [or more], and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.”</p><p>In other words, forget macro trends, focus on fundamentals such as earnings potential, and buy stocks and bonds that look cheap relative to this.</p><p>And then, try to do as little as possible.</p><p>“Hold on to them as long as the company’s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact, and make changes only when those things can’t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along,” Marks says.</p><p>“Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.”</p><p>To finish, Marks offers 10 key things that he believes should be front of mind for investors, which he says are a sort of greatest hits collection from his memos over the years.</p><p>The list, summarised below, might sound obvious to many experienced investors. But in an environment where this columnist feels like the markets (and himself) are gyrating according to the latest piece of macro data, these lessons feel timely and important.</p><h2>Howard Marks’ 10 elements for investors</h2><ul><li>Forget the short run – only the long run matters.</li><li>Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?</li><li>Does your investment style match your personality? Do you tend more towards aggressiveness or defensiveness? Will you try to find more and bigger winners, or focus on avoiding losers, or both? (Hint: “both” is much harder to achieve than one or the other.)</li><li>Think of your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness based on your financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Will you vary this balance depending on what happens in the market?</li><li>Adopt a healthy attitude towards return and risk. Understand that higher returns are usually accompanied by increased risk, while avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.</li><li>Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.</li><li>Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not.</li><li>Recognise that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings and profiting if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.</li><li>Study conditions in the investment environment – especially investor behaviour – and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favour or against you.</li><li>Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9 per cent bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you’ll be happy with 9 per cent. Don’t buy 9 per cent bonds expecting to make 11 per cent thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"afr_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Howard Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHoward Marks’ 10 Key Elements for Investing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 19:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe><strong>The Australian Financial Review</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/howard-marks-10-key-elements-for-investing-20221123-p5c0oe","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285896938","content_text":"In late 2017, with the US economy finally starting to recover from the GFC, legendary Wall Street titan Howard Marks kept being asked the same question, over and over again: when will interest rates finally start to rise?The founder of alternative investing giant Oaktree Capital was typically blunt in his response.Howard Marks says investors can get obsessed with the wrong things.  David Rowe“Why do you care?” he said. “If I say ‘February’, what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say ‘May’, what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?”No one ever offered a convincing answer, Marks says in his latest memo.“Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.”There is no shortage of parallels between Marks’ experience seven years ago and what’s happening today, in a market that’s become obsessed with macroeconomic events.In 2015, the question of when rates would rise was on everyone’s lips, but today the frequently asked questions are about when inflation will peak, or when the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates.Marks’ message has not changed. Not only can the majority of investors not hope to predict macroeconomic events, but they have even less chance of accurately predicting the market’s reaction to them.More than this, though, Marks argues that this stuff doesn’t matter. Too many investors get caught up in short-term gyrations in markets that have little impact on ultimate long-term performance.“Macro events and the ups and downs of companies’ near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of, or relevant to, companies’ long-term prospects. So, little attention should be paid to them.”Marks’ latest memo, which is called What Really Matters, has extra significance for this column, given Marks let slip the title when he spoke to The Australian Financial Review during an interview in Sydney.Despite the title, the memo is mainly about what doesn’t matter – starting with short-term events.Marks’ view that trying to interpret daily movements in share prices is a mug’s game is particularly relevant in today’s market.As New York-based hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler, of Eminence Capital, told the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference last Friday, the rise and rise of passive investing – now 55 per cent of the market, up from about 25 per cent a decade ago – means share prices no longer reflect fundamental value.“In the past, we used to look at a stock that was acting well, and you think the market is coming around to your view, but now you can just be caught up in a six-week factor trade,” he said.But Marks would say stock price movements over weeks and months never really provided much information about fundamental value because this is not how companies work.Which brings Marks to his second thing that doesn’t matter: a trading mentality.“Most people don’t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business.“Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they’re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business.”But Marks argues investors have increasingly come to view stocks not as fractional ownership of a business, but as a tool for profit.“[Warren] Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals. But I think that’s rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.”But success in trading is not the mark of a successful investor, Marks says, because short-term performance – particularly over a quarter but even over a year – also doesn’t matter. Not only can it be influenced by random events, but it probably reflects more on an investor’s aggressiveness (particularly in a period of rising market) than it does skill or even timing.Perhaps more surprisingly for an investor who has made a career out of finding and exploiting distressed opportunities, Marks also says volatility doesn’t matter nearly as much as investors think.Partly, this comes down to what he sees as misdiagnosis of what volatility is. “I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk,” he says.But Marks says too many investors react emotionally to volatility, rather than financially. For long-term investors, some volatility should actually be welcome, given lower volatility should mean lower returns, all things being equal. Marks quotes Buffett’s famous maxim: a lumpy 15 per cent is better than a smooth 12 per cent.So, after all that, what does matter? Marks’ answer is simple. “What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or 10 years [or more], and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.”In other words, forget macro trends, focus on fundamentals such as earnings potential, and buy stocks and bonds that look cheap relative to this.And then, try to do as little as possible.“Hold on to them as long as the company’s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact, and make changes only when those things can’t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along,” Marks says.“Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.”To finish, Marks offers 10 key things that he believes should be front of mind for investors, which he says are a sort of greatest hits collection from his memos over the years.The list, summarised below, might sound obvious to many experienced investors. But in an environment where this columnist feels like the markets (and himself) are gyrating according to the latest piece of macro data, these lessons feel timely and important.Howard Marks’ 10 elements for investorsForget the short run – only the long run matters.Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?Does your investment style match your personality? Do you tend more towards aggressiveness or defensiveness? Will you try to find more and bigger winners, or focus on avoiding losers, or both? (Hint: “both” is much harder to achieve than one or the other.)Think of your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness based on your financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Will you vary this balance depending on what happens in the market?Adopt a healthy attitude towards return and risk. Understand that higher returns are usually accompanied by increased risk, while avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not.Recognise that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings and profiting if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.Study conditions in the investment environment – especially investor behaviour – and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favour or against you.Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9 per cent bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you’ll be happy with 9 per cent. Don’t buy 9 per cent bonds expecting to make 11 per cent thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987121598,"gmtCreate":1667861451714,"gmtModify":1676537973921,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987121598","repostId":"2281360707","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281360707","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667830139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281360707?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Big Bet Alphabet Is Focusing On for the Long Term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281360707","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This multinational technology conglomerate plans to weave artificial intelligence into every aspect of its business.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Alphabet</b> released a terrible earnings report on Oct. 25. And since the company has few good things to say about its near-term prospects in the online ad market, its primary source of revenue, CEO Sundar Pichai chose to talk about the company&#39;s best long-term opportunities. </p><p>Here is one opportunity that he thinks is one of its best bets over the long term.</p><h2>Alphabet built an AI-first company</h2><p>Google has dabbled in artificial intelligence (AI) since Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded the company in 1998. However, it took until 2011 before hardware architecture was powerful and cheap enough to make widespread use of AI possible -- sparking an explosion of AI use globally. And it did not take long before Google became very active in building its AI capabilities. </p><p>According to RS Components rankings, Alphabet acquired the most AI start-ups between 2009 and 2020, possibly assembling the best collection of AI talent worldwide. Included in the acquisition spree was its 2014 acquisition of DeepMind, a company known for employing some of the best AI researchers in the world.</p><p>In 2015, Google started using its homegrown Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) within its data centers to power AI applications for over 100 Google products like Street View. A TPU is a custom-made chipset purpose-built for machine learning. These TPUs ran on TensorFlow, a software platform able to prepare data, build AI models, deploy models, and run models in production. </p><p>Consequently, Alphabet became one of the first companies with the technologies and skills needed to complete an AI project by itself, from hardware to software to algorithms to data -- a full-stack AI company.</p><p>Alphabet soon publicized its change from a mobile-first company to an AI-first company when current Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai announced the change at his Google I/O 2017 keynote.</p><h2>How AI improves Google&#39;s products</h2><p>In its third-quarter 2022 earnings call, Pichai gave several examples of how Google uses AI within its products. In particular, voice and image searches are crucial to the company&#39;s plans.</p><p>According to several surveys, many consumers prefer to search by voice instead of typing. So the demand is there for a good voice-to-text product. But, unfortunately, many voice assistants still leave much to be desired.</p><p>Pichai highlighted two efforts to improve voice chat during the call, Sparrow and Language Model for Dialogue Applications (LaMDA).</p><p>Google designed LaMDA to understand and respond to a user in a natural, conversational way that the average chatbot using narrow, predefined scripts cannot accomplish. The goal is to build a virtual assistant that can hold a conversation nearly indistinguishable from a human. You can judge LaMDA&#39;s progress by downloading and using AI Test Kitchen, a Google app that contains LaMDA.</p><p>Sparrow is a product developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind designed to train conversation AI, helping the AI avoid generating inaccurate or invented information, using discriminatory language, or encouraging unsafe behavior.</p><p>In addition to developing voice products using advanced AI techniques, Alphabet is developing Google Lens, a product designed to perform visual searches on images or using a phone camera. For example, Lens can identify inanimate objects, plants, and animals. It can also search the web for assistance in solving schoolwork problems in math, history, chemistry, biology, physics, and more simply by pointing a camera at a question or equation.</p><p>Lastly, Lens has a translation feature. It can translate text within an image from over 100 languages and instantly display the translation. So, for instance, Lens can translate text on menus or street signs in 100 milliseconds and uses AI to swap out the original text to display the newly translated text within the image, matching the original style.</p><h2>Should you invest?</h2><p>Some analysts estimate the total addressable market for AI to be well past $1 trillion by 2030. And Alphabet is one of the best-positioned companies in the world to profit from the opportunity.</p><p>However, the company&#39;s near-term prospects look awful, despite AI&#39;s fantastic long-term promise. Third-quarter revenue growth decelerated to 6% from 41% in the year-ago period as Google remains challenged by the poor economy. In addition, its diluted earnings per share dropped 24% year over year to $1.06. Considering that it plans to continue slowing head count growth into 2023, Alphabet appears to be preparing for things to worsen.</p><p>Currently, Alphabet sells for a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) ratio of 17, well below its median P/E ratio of 27.02 over the past 10 years. So, you could make a strong argument that once the downturn in the ad market ends and revenue growth reaccelerates, Alphabet will sell at a much higher valuation.</p><p>If you can withstand short-term downside, you should squirrel away a few shares ahead of the oncoming winter.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Big Bet Alphabet Is Focusing On for the Long Term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Big Bet Alphabet Is Focusing On for the Long Term\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/07/1-big-bet-alphabet-is-focusing-on-for-the-long-ter/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alphabet released a terrible earnings report on Oct. 25. And since the company has few good things to say about its near-term prospects in the online ad market, its primary source of revenue, CEO ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/07/1-big-bet-alphabet-is-focusing-on-for-the-long-ter/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/07/1-big-bet-alphabet-is-focusing-on-for-the-long-ter/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281360707","content_text":"Alphabet released a terrible earnings report on Oct. 25. And since the company has few good things to say about its near-term prospects in the online ad market, its primary source of revenue, CEO Sundar Pichai chose to talk about the company's best long-term opportunities. Here is one opportunity that he thinks is one of its best bets over the long term.Alphabet built an AI-first companyGoogle has dabbled in artificial intelligence (AI) since Larry Page and Sergey Brin founded the company in 1998. However, it took until 2011 before hardware architecture was powerful and cheap enough to make widespread use of AI possible -- sparking an explosion of AI use globally. And it did not take long before Google became very active in building its AI capabilities. According to RS Components rankings, Alphabet acquired the most AI start-ups between 2009 and 2020, possibly assembling the best collection of AI talent worldwide. Included in the acquisition spree was its 2014 acquisition of DeepMind, a company known for employing some of the best AI researchers in the world.In 2015, Google started using its homegrown Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) within its data centers to power AI applications for over 100 Google products like Street View. A TPU is a custom-made chipset purpose-built for machine learning. These TPUs ran on TensorFlow, a software platform able to prepare data, build AI models, deploy models, and run models in production. Consequently, Alphabet became one of the first companies with the technologies and skills needed to complete an AI project by itself, from hardware to software to algorithms to data -- a full-stack AI company.Alphabet soon publicized its change from a mobile-first company to an AI-first company when current Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai announced the change at his Google I/O 2017 keynote.How AI improves Google's productsIn its third-quarter 2022 earnings call, Pichai gave several examples of how Google uses AI within its products. In particular, voice and image searches are crucial to the company's plans.According to several surveys, many consumers prefer to search by voice instead of typing. So the demand is there for a good voice-to-text product. But, unfortunately, many voice assistants still leave much to be desired.Pichai highlighted two efforts to improve voice chat during the call, Sparrow and Language Model for Dialogue Applications (LaMDA).Google designed LaMDA to understand and respond to a user in a natural, conversational way that the average chatbot using narrow, predefined scripts cannot accomplish. The goal is to build a virtual assistant that can hold a conversation nearly indistinguishable from a human. You can judge LaMDA's progress by downloading and using AI Test Kitchen, a Google app that contains LaMDA.Sparrow is a product developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind designed to train conversation AI, helping the AI avoid generating inaccurate or invented information, using discriminatory language, or encouraging unsafe behavior.In addition to developing voice products using advanced AI techniques, Alphabet is developing Google Lens, a product designed to perform visual searches on images or using a phone camera. For example, Lens can identify inanimate objects, plants, and animals. It can also search the web for assistance in solving schoolwork problems in math, history, chemistry, biology, physics, and more simply by pointing a camera at a question or equation.Lastly, Lens has a translation feature. It can translate text within an image from over 100 languages and instantly display the translation. So, for instance, Lens can translate text on menus or street signs in 100 milliseconds and uses AI to swap out the original text to display the newly translated text within the image, matching the original style.Should you invest?Some analysts estimate the total addressable market for AI to be well past $1 trillion by 2030. And Alphabet is one of the best-positioned companies in the world to profit from the opportunity.However, the company's near-term prospects look awful, despite AI's fantastic long-term promise. Third-quarter revenue growth decelerated to 6% from 41% in the year-ago period as Google remains challenged by the poor economy. In addition, its diluted earnings per share dropped 24% year over year to $1.06. Considering that it plans to continue slowing head count growth into 2023, Alphabet appears to be preparing for things to worsen.Currently, Alphabet sells for a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) ratio of 17, well below its median P/E ratio of 27.02 over the past 10 years. So, you could make a strong argument that once the downturn in the ad market ends and revenue growth reaccelerates, Alphabet will sell at a much higher valuation.If you can withstand short-term downside, you should squirrel away a few shares ahead of the oncoming winter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917931404,"gmtCreate":1665408926808,"gmtModify":1676537601044,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917931404","repostId":"1129204631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665415321,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129204631?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204631","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.</li><li>However, that doesn&#39;t mean it will be the bottom.</li><li>Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.</li></ul><p>The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&amp;P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.</p><p>The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&amp;P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a5b3b87d56cd4bd4441ffe78d7917b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>An October New Low?</b></p><p>From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.</p><p>It&#39;s All About Rates</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn&#39;t see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe9b42330ab57d8cb7fcad9ad287b66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Since 2014, the average spread between the S&amp;P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&amp;P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/716b902ff03171d3d6501fc54cd5e4ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Another 9% Decline?</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&amp;P 500 back to a historically average fair value.</p><p>With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&amp;P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e039fb8224601f45af66fa8d842e51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&amp;P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.</p><p>Rate Cuts?</p><p>Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446920a17ef8c631f042c4e6c66a83c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebdd77840eddc274c550c53a8b6d962\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a37e7dfd2cd888c6f32ea805482bc8b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>In this case, Friday&#39;s job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.</p><p>If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren&#39;t finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204631","content_text":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.BloombergAn October New Low?From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.It's All About RatesThe S&P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn't see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.BloombergSince 2014, the average spread between the S&P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.BloombergAnother 9% Decline?The S&P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&P 500 back to a historically average fair value.With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.BloombergWhat will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.Rate Cuts?Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.BloombergAs the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.BloombergMeanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.BloombergIn this case, Friday's job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren't finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915533898,"gmtCreate":1665065785715,"gmtModify":1676537551845,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915533898","repostId":"1191721961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191721961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665044676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191721961?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191721961","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.Tha","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Investors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.</li><li>That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.</li><li>Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e6de7f0fab0e6bb37cdb11d688fb5d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Whether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.</p><h2>What Is A Recession?</h2><p>The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.</p><p>However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.</p><p>Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it&#39;s worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e244cd5d88e7efe563b9a11bbbd69704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>The shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it&#39;s safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.</p><p>That doesn&#39;t mean a recession won&#39;t come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it&#39;s safe to say that we&#39;re probably entering a recession.</p><p>If that does happen, what&#39;s the outlook on the S&amp;P 500? Let&#39;s take a look.</p><h2>Historical Recessions</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>As shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&amp;P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there&#39;s quite a range of outcomes here, but it&#39;s clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.</p><p>This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That&#39;s a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.</p><p>Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there&#39;s potentially more room to fall.</p><p>I won&#39;t hazard a guess as to who&#39;s right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?</p><p>You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market&#39;s returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Recession</b></td><td><b>SPY Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nov-48:Oct-49</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-53:May-54</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Aug-57:Apr-58</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-60:Feb-61</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-69:Nov-70</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Nov-73:Mar-75</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-80:Jul-80</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-81:Nov-82</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-90:Mar-91</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Mar-01:Nov-01</td><td>-9%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-07:Jun-09</td><td>-39%</td></tr><tr><td>Feb-20:Mar-20</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>-2%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Median</b></td><td><b>2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: The Author</p><p>The key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it&#39;s actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it&#39;s safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn&#39;t bet on great returns during a recession, but they&#39;re also not out of the question.</p><h2>Best Course For Investors</h2><p>At Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don&#39;t attempt to time the market based on whether we&#39;re in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that&#39;s my preferred strategy. In this section, I&#39;ll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>This is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn&#39;t discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you&#39;ll ever find with SPY, and it&#39;s again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they&#39;ll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48970cb98595a3c00b76cfcea64bead8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Current Market Valuation</span></p><p>The next data point is the S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don&#39;t see any earnings growth for the next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe698a5c07dfcf88b263624c52a6404\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Morningstar Equity Research</span></p><p>Another data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar&#39;s DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.</p><p>Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.</p><p>At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar&#39;s.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Stock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.</p><p>I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you&#39;re of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.</p><p>However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191721961","content_text":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.DNY59ThesisWhether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.What Is A Recession?The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it's worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.FREDThe shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it's safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.That doesn't mean a recession won't come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it's safe to say that we're probably entering a recession.If that does happen, what's the outlook on the S&P 500? Let's take a look.Historical RecessionsYahoo FinanceAs shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there's quite a range of outcomes here, but it's clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That's a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there's potentially more room to fall.I won't hazard a guess as to who's right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market's returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:RecessionSPY ReturnNov-48:Oct-4911%Jul-53:May-5425%Aug-57:Apr-58-5%Apr-60:Feb-6118%Dec-69:Nov-703%Nov-73:Mar-75-24%Jan-80:Jul-800%Jul-81:Nov-826%Jul-90:Mar-9113%Mar-01:Nov-01-9%Dec-07:Jun-09-39%Feb-20:Mar-20-24%Average-2%Median2%Source: The AuthorThe key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it's actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it's safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn't bet on great returns during a recession, but they're also not out of the question.Best Course For InvestorsAt Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don't attempt to time the market based on whether we're in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that's my preferred strategy. In this section, I'll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.Yahoo FinanceThis is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn't discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you'll ever find with SPY, and it's again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they'll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.Current Market ValuationThe next data point is the S&P 500's historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don't see any earnings growth for the next year.Morningstar Equity ResearchAnother data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar's DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar's.ConclusionStock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you're of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919194921,"gmtCreate":1663746441363,"gmtModify":1676537328407,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919194921","repostId":"1126746547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126746547","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663738336,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126746547?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 13:32","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Sea Limited Is Suddenly Serious About Cash Flow","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126746547","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"How will the market value this stock if its growth potential dissipates?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>Sea Limited is focused on becoming self-sufficient because it can no longer rely on outside financing.</li><li>Its push towards self-sufficiency includes cutting executive pay and tightening e-commerce operations in certain countries.</li><li>The stock&#39;s valuation has plummeted, but it may be warranted if its growth opportunities are reduced.</li></ul><p>E-commerce, payments, and gaming company <b>Sea Limited</b> is turning away from revenue growth and toward cash flow at all costs.</p><p>Investors grew accustomed to mind-numbing growth figures from Sea Limited. Consider that in 2017, the company generated revenue of $414 million. In 2021, it generated revenue of nearly $10 billion -- up 24 times in just four years. And revenue through the first half of 2022 is up another impressive 44% year over year.</p><p>According to <i>Bloomberg</i>, Sea Limited just sent a memo to employees, saying that its top goal is to become cash-flow positive as quickly as possible. And as we&#39;ll see, it&#39;s pulling out all the stops to accomplish this. Here&#39;s what investors need to know.</p><h2>Why Sea Limited is pivoting toward profits</h2><p>In 2017, Sea Limited primarily generated revenue from its video game platform Garena, much of that coming from Asia with a concentration in its home Singapore market. Since then, the company has expanded its revenue sources to include e-commerce (through its Shopee platform) and digital payments (through its fintech arm SeaMoney). It&#39;s expanded and grown substantially in markets like Europe and Latin America.</p><p>Sea Limited is now prioritizing profits over growth because of how quickly the global financing market changed. In his memo to employees, founder and CEO Forrest Li explained, &#34;With investors fleeing for &#39;safe haven&#39; investments, we do not anticipate being able to raise funds in the market.&#34;</p><p>In short, Sea Limited grew and expanded rapidly. But it did so by relying heavily on cash from financing activities, as the chart below shows. And it can&#39;t keep dipping into that honey pot now that the macroeconomic environment is different.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a6de5c2491384ebaf7378436cf315ba\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p>To Li&#39;s point, the cost of capital rose. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades, giving investors much better returns on relatively risk-free assets. They&#39;re now less willing to lend money to companies like Sea Limited without demanding a much higher rate of return. Basically, the terms for borrowing money aren&#39;t as compelling as they were.</p><p>Similarly, the Federal Reserve has taken liquidity out of the system by shrinking its balance sheet. This has a side effect of causing stock valuations to drop. Sea Limited could raise funds by diluting shares as it&#39;s done in the past, but the terms are far less attractive. Sea Limited stock had ap rice-to-sales (P/S) valuation of over 30 in early 2021. Its valuation has plummeted more than 90% to a P/S ratio under 3 as of this writing -- an all-time low for the company.</p><p>Sea Limited isn&#39;t the only company pivoting in light of market conditions. For example, the parent company of Snapchat, <b>Snap</b>, released a memo to employees earlier this month, and tech website The Verge got hold of it. Snap&#39;s CEO reportedly said: &#34;Our business will be valued based on our ability to generate profits. We must adapt our strategy accordingly.&#34;</p><p>Snap is adapting to the market&#39;s preference for profitability, in part, by launching an enterprise division for its augmented-reality technology. But it&#39;s also cutting projects like its selfie drone. And as we&#39;ll see, Sea Limited is making cuts as well.</p><h2>What Sea Limited is giving up</h2><p>Sea Limited&#39;s video game segment, Garena, is its profitable venture. However, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for this segment fell 55% year over year in the second quarter of 2022 to $333.6 million, in part due to its hit <i>Free Fire</i>game being banned in India and also a general slowdown in the video game space.</p><p>However, Garena&#39;s struggles appear to be ongoing. According to a September Reuters report, about 15% of Garena&#39;s staff may have just been let go as Sea Limited pivots hard toward profits. Moreover, the same Reuters report says that Sea Limited is shutting down Shopee in Argentina altogether as well as shutting down local operations in Columbia, Chile, and Mexico -- cross-border shipments will still be allowed in those three countries. This follows Sea Limited pulling out of some European markets earlier this year.</p><p>Finally, back to the <i>Bloomberg</i> report, management is extremely serious about cash-flow positivity. It&#39;s reportedly forgoing paychecks for executives until Sea Limited reaches self-sufficiency. This, of course, implies that the company hasn&#39;t been self-sufficient to this point, emphasizing once more that its growth was funded by financing.</p><h2>Lower top-line growth, lower valuation</h2><p>Sea Limited investors should be encouraged that there&#39;s a viable path to self-sufficiency. Consider that in the first half of 2022, the company reported a negative $1.2 billion in cash from operations. But it spent $540 million on property and equipment alone, much of which is for e-commerce infrastructure. Simply curtailing spending to grow Shopee will substantially push the overall business toward breakeven.</p><p>That said, Sea Limited&#39;s e-commerce segment accounted for nearly 59% of overall revenue in Q2. And its 51% year-over-year growth for this segment far exceeded the overall revenue growth of 29%. In other words, the company is cutting back on its top-line growth driver, which typically merits a cheaper valuation.</p><p>Pivoting toward self-sufficiency is important and necessary for Sea Limited in the current economic environment. It also means the stock may be fairly valued in a low-growth, break-even scenario. That makes this a company I would watch from the sidelines for now. Wait and see if management can accomplish its self-sufficiency goal. And see what kind of profits it&#39;s capable of after the pivot is complete to get a better idea of the long-term opportunity.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Sea Limited Is Suddenly Serious About Cash Flow</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Sea Limited Is Suddenly Serious About Cash Flow\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 13:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/why-sea-limited-suddenly-serious-about-cash-flow/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSSea Limited is focused on becoming self-sufficient because it can no longer rely on outside financing.Its push towards self-sufficiency includes cutting executive pay and tightening e-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/why-sea-limited-suddenly-serious-about-cash-flow/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/20/why-sea-limited-suddenly-serious-about-cash-flow/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126746547","content_text":"KEY POINTSSea Limited is focused on becoming self-sufficient because it can no longer rely on outside financing.Its push towards self-sufficiency includes cutting executive pay and tightening e-commerce operations in certain countries.The stock's valuation has plummeted, but it may be warranted if its growth opportunities are reduced.E-commerce, payments, and gaming company Sea Limited is turning away from revenue growth and toward cash flow at all costs.Investors grew accustomed to mind-numbing growth figures from Sea Limited. Consider that in 2017, the company generated revenue of $414 million. In 2021, it generated revenue of nearly $10 billion -- up 24 times in just four years. And revenue through the first half of 2022 is up another impressive 44% year over year.According to Bloomberg, Sea Limited just sent a memo to employees, saying that its top goal is to become cash-flow positive as quickly as possible. And as we'll see, it's pulling out all the stops to accomplish this. Here's what investors need to know.Why Sea Limited is pivoting toward profitsIn 2017, Sea Limited primarily generated revenue from its video game platform Garena, much of that coming from Asia with a concentration in its home Singapore market. Since then, the company has expanded its revenue sources to include e-commerce (through its Shopee platform) and digital payments (through its fintech arm SeaMoney). It's expanded and grown substantially in markets like Europe and Latin America.Sea Limited is now prioritizing profits over growth because of how quickly the global financing market changed. In his memo to employees, founder and CEO Forrest Li explained, \"With investors fleeing for 'safe haven' investments, we do not anticipate being able to raise funds in the market.\"In short, Sea Limited grew and expanded rapidly. But it did so by relying heavily on cash from financing activities, as the chart below shows. And it can't keep dipping into that honey pot now that the macroeconomic environment is different.SE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.To Li's point, the cost of capital rose. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades, giving investors much better returns on relatively risk-free assets. They're now less willing to lend money to companies like Sea Limited without demanding a much higher rate of return. Basically, the terms for borrowing money aren't as compelling as they were.Similarly, the Federal Reserve has taken liquidity out of the system by shrinking its balance sheet. This has a side effect of causing stock valuations to drop. Sea Limited could raise funds by diluting shares as it's done in the past, but the terms are far less attractive. Sea Limited stock had ap rice-to-sales (P/S) valuation of over 30 in early 2021. Its valuation has plummeted more than 90% to a P/S ratio under 3 as of this writing -- an all-time low for the company.Sea Limited isn't the only company pivoting in light of market conditions. For example, the parent company of Snapchat, Snap, released a memo to employees earlier this month, and tech website The Verge got hold of it. Snap's CEO reportedly said: \"Our business will be valued based on our ability to generate profits. We must adapt our strategy accordingly.\"Snap is adapting to the market's preference for profitability, in part, by launching an enterprise division for its augmented-reality technology. But it's also cutting projects like its selfie drone. And as we'll see, Sea Limited is making cuts as well.What Sea Limited is giving upSea Limited's video game segment, Garena, is its profitable venture. However, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for this segment fell 55% year over year in the second quarter of 2022 to $333.6 million, in part due to its hit Free Firegame being banned in India and also a general slowdown in the video game space.However, Garena's struggles appear to be ongoing. According to a September Reuters report, about 15% of Garena's staff may have just been let go as Sea Limited pivots hard toward profits. Moreover, the same Reuters report says that Sea Limited is shutting down Shopee in Argentina altogether as well as shutting down local operations in Columbia, Chile, and Mexico -- cross-border shipments will still be allowed in those three countries. This follows Sea Limited pulling out of some European markets earlier this year.Finally, back to the Bloomberg report, management is extremely serious about cash-flow positivity. It's reportedly forgoing paychecks for executives until Sea Limited reaches self-sufficiency. This, of course, implies that the company hasn't been self-sufficient to this point, emphasizing once more that its growth was funded by financing.Lower top-line growth, lower valuationSea Limited investors should be encouraged that there's a viable path to self-sufficiency. Consider that in the first half of 2022, the company reported a negative $1.2 billion in cash from operations. But it spent $540 million on property and equipment alone, much of which is for e-commerce infrastructure. Simply curtailing spending to grow Shopee will substantially push the overall business toward breakeven.That said, Sea Limited's e-commerce segment accounted for nearly 59% of overall revenue in Q2. And its 51% year-over-year growth for this segment far exceeded the overall revenue growth of 29%. In other words, the company is cutting back on its top-line growth driver, which typically merits a cheaper valuation.Pivoting toward self-sufficiency is important and necessary for Sea Limited in the current economic environment. It also means the stock may be fairly valued in a low-growth, break-even scenario. That makes this a company I would watch from the sidelines for now. Wait and see if management can accomplish its self-sufficiency goal. And see what kind of profits it's capable of after the pivot is complete to get a better idea of the long-term opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910520647,"gmtCreate":1663645550989,"gmtModify":1676537308100,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Microsoft&nbsp;","listText":"Microsoft&nbsp;","text":"Microsoft","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910520647","repostId":"1180636736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180636736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663644154,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180636736?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Another Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180636736","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMicrosoft is favorably positioned to sustain an economic slowdown with defensive assets, envi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Microsoft is favorably positioned to sustain an economic slowdown with defensive assets, enviable margins, and high free cash flows.</li><li>Azure growth will moderate on tougher comps and a challenging macro, but remains an attractive story driven by continued public cloud growth.</li><li>Net-net, valuation has become relatively attractive as markets try to price in a recession, and investors should be well compensated as macro pressures ease.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>There&#39;s not much to like about tech stocks, as most companies are reporting disappointing numbers and providing underwhelming guidance that force analysts to slash estimates in a heartbeat. While the software space certainly benefited from pandemic tailwinds and iscannot escape a reversion to the mean, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is one robust name that deserves our attention as macro pressures continue to drive down tech valuations.</p><p><b>Revisiting the bull case</b></p><p>The most straightforward bull case for Microsoft is that cloud migration remains a sustainable growth story despite some moderation. From a top-down perspective, 1H22 was strong for the public cloud market, which delivered &gt;35% growth, although the big three (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw some decelerations on tougher comps. The top 3 cloud vendors now boast a total annualized run rate of $147 billion which grew 36% YoY in Q2 vs. 41% in Q1.</p><p>Azure is estimated to have a gross margin of over 60%, while AWS (AMZN) had a 29% operating margin in Q2. Google Cloud Platform (GOOG,GOOGL), the distant third vendor with less than 10% of the market, is yet to turn a profit but still produced 36% YoY growth in Q2 vs. 44% in Q1. Unlike some pockets of the tech sector that were one-time beneficiaries of the pandemic, there&#39;s no question that cloud migration will continue to be a structural vs. cyclical theme.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3225259c8fe363db0cf87d377be79219\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company data, Barclays</p><p><b>Azure outlook remains strong</b></p><p>In the June quarter (4QFY22), Microsoft reported total revenue growth of 12.5% YoY and +16% in constant currency, which was roughly inline with consensus. Despite some FX impact due to a strong dollar, total RPO grew 32% vs. 28% in the prior quarter. Commercial bookings increased 37% CC to $189 billion. Management highlighted a record number of Azure deals that were above $100 million and $1 billion. Azure sales increased by 46% (1% below consensus), and is expected to grow 43% in the September quarter (1% below consensus). Despite the slight moderation amidst macro concerns on more consumer-centric sectors and SMBs, Azure&#39;s growth remains strong on longer bookings commitments.</p><p>While CEO Nadella was cautious on the macro developments during the earnings call, he saw cloud transformation as a deflationary force in an inflationary environment where corporations are forced to do more with less.</p><blockquote>That&#39;s why I think coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner because it does act as that deflationary force. -MSFT 4QFY22 call.</blockquote><p>Besides Azure, demand for cloud security continues to be in a favorable trend as enterprises look to spend more to protect their data and digital operations. Microsoft reported Security revenue growth of 40% YoY, approaching the $20 billion run-rate mark.</p><p>For the September quarter (1QFY23), Azure growth is guided to decelerate from 46% CC to 43% CC where management highlighted some consumption softness. Suppose growth is to decelerate by ~3 points per quarter going forward, Azure could exit FY23 with a still respectable 34% growth rate in FQ4. While the current macro narrative does put pressure on tech overall, Azure is in an enviable position to capitalize on a strong IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) market estimated to grow another 30% to $156 billion in 2023 (Gartner).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dadc67cdb6a675c6091251a3dffcc7f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company, Albert Lin</p><p><b>PC softness is an issue, but a well understood one</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s Office and Windows revenue are most definitely not immune to a slowdown in the PC market. Since the PC segment was a major beneficiary of the pandemic, PC makers across the board have been witnessing demand normalization this year:</p><ul><li>Asus: Experiencing demand headwinds, said many are looking at 10-15% decline in the PC market in 2022.</li><li>Lenovo: PC market is experiencing weak consumer demand and supply chain issues as a result of Covid-19.</li><li>HP: Weakening consumer demand and higher price competition</li><li>Dell: Demand slowed, B2B customers are delaying purchases and being more conservative on IT budgets.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b73ec5beefad921fe89f7bda33d0f92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gartner, UBS</p><p>Though the weakness in the PC market will put pressure on Office and Windows revenue, the Windows operating system remains in a dominant position while Office products are highly sticky. Microsoft has implemented 15-25% price increase in the Office product family which is a clear indication of pricing power, a highly desirable attribute in an inflationary environment. Overall, while the PC business is no doubt experiencing a slowdown post-Covid-19, markets should have already priced in the impact as nothing lasts forever.</p><p><b>Recent dip presents another buying opportunity</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s FY23 guidance calls double-digit top-line growth with a 4% impact from FX. This shows the relatively robust and defensive nature of the company&#39;s offerings which should lead to lower risks of downward revisions, in my view. While operating margins are guided to be flat (favorable depreciation schedule impact offset by FX), estimated FY23 operating margin of ~42% and FCF margin of ~33% still make Microsoft an earnings powerhouse.</p><p>Though Microsoft&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t exactly in bargain territory, I suspect negative investor sentiment and cautious positioning should be a good setup for better-than-feared results going forward. As a result, I see the recent dip in share price as a buying opportunity at 24.5x forward earnings / 3.9% forward FCF yield and will start to get more aggressive should valuation overshoot to the downside to ~20x or ~$200 a share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf29eae775dabf19e31b17afc6426627\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Company data, Albert Lin</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Another Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Another Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 11:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541901-microsoft-another-buying-opportunity?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A6><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMicrosoft is favorably positioned to sustain an economic slowdown with defensive assets, enviable margins, and high free cash flows.Azure growth will moderate on tougher comps and a challenging...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541901-microsoft-another-buying-opportunity?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A6\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541901-microsoft-another-buying-opportunity?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180636736","content_text":"SummaryMicrosoft is favorably positioned to sustain an economic slowdown with defensive assets, enviable margins, and high free cash flows.Azure growth will moderate on tougher comps and a challenging macro, but remains an attractive story driven by continued public cloud growth.Net-net, valuation has become relatively attractive as markets try to price in a recession, and investors should be well compensated as macro pressures ease.IntroductionThere's not much to like about tech stocks, as most companies are reporting disappointing numbers and providing underwhelming guidance that force analysts to slash estimates in a heartbeat. While the software space certainly benefited from pandemic tailwinds and iscannot escape a reversion to the mean, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is one robust name that deserves our attention as macro pressures continue to drive down tech valuations.Revisiting the bull caseThe most straightforward bull case for Microsoft is that cloud migration remains a sustainable growth story despite some moderation. From a top-down perspective, 1H22 was strong for the public cloud market, which delivered >35% growth, although the big three (AWS, Azure, GCP) saw some decelerations on tougher comps. The top 3 cloud vendors now boast a total annualized run rate of $147 billion which grew 36% YoY in Q2 vs. 41% in Q1.Azure is estimated to have a gross margin of over 60%, while AWS (AMZN) had a 29% operating margin in Q2. Google Cloud Platform (GOOG,GOOGL), the distant third vendor with less than 10% of the market, is yet to turn a profit but still produced 36% YoY growth in Q2 vs. 44% in Q1. Unlike some pockets of the tech sector that were one-time beneficiaries of the pandemic, there's no question that cloud migration will continue to be a structural vs. cyclical theme.Company data, BarclaysAzure outlook remains strongIn the June quarter (4QFY22), Microsoft reported total revenue growth of 12.5% YoY and +16% in constant currency, which was roughly inline with consensus. Despite some FX impact due to a strong dollar, total RPO grew 32% vs. 28% in the prior quarter. Commercial bookings increased 37% CC to $189 billion. Management highlighted a record number of Azure deals that were above $100 million and $1 billion. Azure sales increased by 46% (1% below consensus), and is expected to grow 43% in the September quarter (1% below consensus). Despite the slight moderation amidst macro concerns on more consumer-centric sectors and SMBs, Azure's growth remains strong on longer bookings commitments.While CEO Nadella was cautious on the macro developments during the earnings call, he saw cloud transformation as a deflationary force in an inflationary environment where corporations are forced to do more with less.That's why I think coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner because it does act as that deflationary force. -MSFT 4QFY22 call.Besides Azure, demand for cloud security continues to be in a favorable trend as enterprises look to spend more to protect their data and digital operations. Microsoft reported Security revenue growth of 40% YoY, approaching the $20 billion run-rate mark.For the September quarter (1QFY23), Azure growth is guided to decelerate from 46% CC to 43% CC where management highlighted some consumption softness. Suppose growth is to decelerate by ~3 points per quarter going forward, Azure could exit FY23 with a still respectable 34% growth rate in FQ4. While the current macro narrative does put pressure on tech overall, Azure is in an enviable position to capitalize on a strong IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) market estimated to grow another 30% to $156 billion in 2023 (Gartner).Company, Albert LinPC softness is an issue, but a well understood oneMicrosoft's Office and Windows revenue are most definitely not immune to a slowdown in the PC market. Since the PC segment was a major beneficiary of the pandemic, PC makers across the board have been witnessing demand normalization this year:Asus: Experiencing demand headwinds, said many are looking at 10-15% decline in the PC market in 2022.Lenovo: PC market is experiencing weak consumer demand and supply chain issues as a result of Covid-19.HP: Weakening consumer demand and higher price competitionDell: Demand slowed, B2B customers are delaying purchases and being more conservative on IT budgets.Gartner, UBSThough the weakness in the PC market will put pressure on Office and Windows revenue, the Windows operating system remains in a dominant position while Office products are highly sticky. Microsoft has implemented 15-25% price increase in the Office product family which is a clear indication of pricing power, a highly desirable attribute in an inflationary environment. Overall, while the PC business is no doubt experiencing a slowdown post-Covid-19, markets should have already priced in the impact as nothing lasts forever.Recent dip presents another buying opportunityMicrosoft's FY23 guidance calls double-digit top-line growth with a 4% impact from FX. This shows the relatively robust and defensive nature of the company's offerings which should lead to lower risks of downward revisions, in my view. While operating margins are guided to be flat (favorable depreciation schedule impact offset by FX), estimated FY23 operating margin of ~42% and FCF margin of ~33% still make Microsoft an earnings powerhouse.Though Microsoft's valuation isn't exactly in bargain territory, I suspect negative investor sentiment and cautious positioning should be a good setup for better-than-feared results going forward. As a result, I see the recent dip in share price as a buying opportunity at 24.5x forward earnings / 3.9% forward FCF yield and will start to get more aggressive should valuation overshoot to the downside to ~20x or ~$200 a share.Company data, Albert Lin","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931071435,"gmtCreate":1662371595627,"gmtModify":1676537047528,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931071435","repostId":"1198620014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198620014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662364882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198620014?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198620014","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and wi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We share data on 50 high-growth &#34;pandemic darlings&#34; that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.</li><li>We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including TAM, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share-based compensation, dilution, and industrywide challenges).</li><li>We also dive deep into the very ugly macroeconomic reasons to stay bearish on the market (things can still get much worse) and on Palantir, especially in the near term.</li><li>After reviewing three high-growth stocks in total from the list, we conclude with some important takeaways and our strong opinion about investing in Palantir and in the current market environment.</li></ul><p>After the initial pandemic shock in 2020, certain high-growth stocks performed well. Extremely well. Bolstered by extraordinarily low interest rates and a new crowd of &#34;work-from-homers&#34; (with newfound time to &#34;invest&#34;) it seemed the sky was the limit. Until it wasn&#39;t. Flash forward to now, the markethas fallen sharply this year (especially high-growth stocks), and there is no short supply of reasons to stay bearish. Very bearish. In this report, we share data on 50 high-growth stocks that have crashed, run through a list of compelling reasons (data points) to stay bearish, and then discuss the merits of three interesting high-growth stocks from the list that have crashed particularly hard, with a special focus on pandemic darling, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), including its positive and negatives (such as total addressable market, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share based compensation, dilution and industrywide challenges). We conclude with some important takeaways and our very strong opinion about investing in Palantir and investing in this market in general.</p><p><b>50 High-Growth Pandemic Darlings That Crashed</b></p><p>For starters, here is a look at 50 high-growth &#34;pandemic darling&#34; stocks (concentrated in software industries) that have crashed hard this year. The table is sorted by market cap, and you likely see at least a few that you are very familiar with.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66a68a501ea4023d237754fb86cded1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Stock Rover</p><p>A lot of conservative value-oriented investors take a lot of satisfaction seeing the sharp declines this year. They warned (often loudly) that valuations were absurdly high considering many of these pandemic darlings have never even generated a profit. What&#39;s more, there are a lot of very compelling reasons to stay bearish on these stocks (such as high inflation, rising interest rates, lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a war in Europe and indications that corporate profit estimates are still too high based on the federal budget deficit) as we will cover in more detail in a later section of this report. But first, let&#39;s take a look at one of the most hyped stocks in recent history, that rose dramatically during the pandemic, and has now fallen very hard, Palantir.</p><p><b>Palantir: Pandemic Stock Poster Child</b></p><p>Palantir is basically a data-mining software company that has strangely generated a cult-like internet following since its September 2020 IPO (despite the fact that it has existed since 2003). Perhaps it&#39;s the company&#39;s secret government contracts that had so many investors mystified, or its expansion into the non-government Software-as-Service business at exactly the time when those stocks were being most hyped (because artificially low interest rates by the Fed dramatically magnified the present value of &#34;possible&#34; future earnings for those types of stocks) or maybe even its unusual name (it&#39;s named after a mystical, all-powerful seeing stone in &#34;Lord of the Rings&#34;). Whatever the case may be, Palantir shares soared to very high valuations (for example, see how its current price-to-sales multiple compares to its 5-year (technically 2-year) range in our earlier table above).</p><p><b>Palantir Positives:</b></p><p>Before getting into the very negative things working against Palantir in the next sections of this report (both company-specific and macroeconomic) let&#39;s first consider a few of the good things the company has going for it.</p><p><b>Three things to look for in a growth stock</b>: For starters, three big things many long-term growth investors look for in a stock are a founder CEO (check: CEO Alex Karp cofounded Palantir), a very high revenue growth rate (check: the 3-year revenue CAGR is 41%, and it is expected to keep growing rapidly, per our earlier table) and a very large Total Addressable Market (check: see the &#34;TAM&#34; graphic below from Palantir&#39;s latest investorpresentation).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb72b760e9432fd752a4ea9aa354c7f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Investor Presentation</p><p><b>Large TAM</b>: Specifically, as you can see in the chart above, each of Palantir&#39;s major businesses have continued to grow rapidly over time and continue to have large growth potential (dotted line). For reference:</p><ul><li><p><b>Palantir Gotham</b> is a software platform that enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform.</p></li><li><p><b>Palantir Foundry</b> is a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p></li><li><p><b>Apollo</b> is a software that enables customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.</p></li></ul><p>And according to CEO Alex Karp during the latest earnings call:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We have 5 of the most interesting, important and crazy baller, impactful products in the world: PG, Foundry, Nexus Peering, MetaConstellation and Apollo, all of which were built before their time, all of which have made a 41% CAGR possible.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>More specifically, in his latest letter to shareholders, Karp explained:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Our platforms consist of more than 700 component parts and 65 separate applications...Each one of those component parts has the potential to become a dominant and standalone software product in its own right.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Further, Karp had this to say about TAM:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.&#34;</i></blockquote><p><b>Founder CEO</b>: Further, Karp is a strong leader constantly building the brand by highlighting the strengths of the products (for example, on the call he explained &#34;their quintessential attribute that large companies, which essentially control distribution, cannot easily copy them or if at all&#34;), and the long-term anti Wall Street approach to the business (for example, Karp says &#34;we run this company as owners, and we do not run it purely to actually make people happy quarter-to-quarter.&#34;).</p><p><b>Client Growth</b>: In addition to high revenue growth, Palantir continues to grow its clients (which have a very high retention rate - Palantir ended Q2 2022 with net dollar retention rate of 119% - high retention is often typical for the very attractive SaaS business model)</p><p><b>High Margins and Strong Innovation</b>: Palantir has very high gross margins (see our earlier table), and strong innovation (as per its high research margin and strong expansion into non-government clients).</p><p><b>Improving Bottom Line</b>: Like a lot of high-growth business, Palantir is not yet profitable. And while this may sound like a big negative (especially considering the company has been around for almost 20 years) it is actually by design. Specifically, Palantir continues to spend heavily to capture attractive revenue growth opportunities (the types of revenue growth opportunities other companies wish they had). Moreover, Palantir&#39;s losses are shrinking (it&#39;s moving towards profitability). Per the shareholder letter, Palantir is now strongly free cash flow positive, and per the quarterly call, Karp expects to be &#34;a profitable company in 2025.&#34;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b9c1704c07ba21290335407af5a237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Shareholder Letter</p><p>As unattractive as it is to some, Palantir&#39;s decision to focus on revenue growth over bottom line income (for now) is the right decision in terms of maximizing long-term shareholder value (whether or not you are the right type of shareholder - you probably already know - but we will address this topic in the conclusion of this report).</p><p><b>Increasingly Reasonable Valuation</b>: And of course, Palantir&#39;s valuation multiples are dramatically lower than they were (price-to-sales is now only 12.8% of what it was, per our earlier table) and relatively attractive as compared to peers and as compared to its high revenue growth and large TAM.</p><p>Despite the dramatic share price sell off (shares currently sit at only 4.9% of their 52-week price range), Palantir continues to have a lot of long-term attractive qualities.</p><p><b>Palantir Negatives:</b></p><p>Of course there are a lot of negative things (challenges) Palantir currently faces, including the negative company-specific things we will cover in this section, plus the massively daunting macroeconomic challenges we will cover in the next section.</p><p><b>Slowing Government Revenue Growth</b>: For example, Palantir&#39;sgovernment revenue(supposedly its &#34;bread and butter&#34;) is slowing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5632018f8ec8c51db94235eadcddb9d2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Investor Presentation</p><p>According to a research note from Brad Zelnick at Deutsche Bank (Zelnick rates Palantir a &#34;sell&#34;):</p><blockquote><i>&#34;While we&#39;ve always been more skeptical of Palantir&#39;s commercial opportunity, our thesis was rooted in what we saw as a uniquely strong position in Public Sector… Now with the Gov&#39;t business further decelerating off of easier compares and with diminished confidence/visibility ahead, we are left with very little to support our thesis.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Palantir lowered its forward guidance this quarter based on uncertainty around government contracts. This issue was addressed repeatedly during the call by explaining revenues are lumpy (there have actually been &#34;a number of years where [revenue] was flat or even negative&#34;), but worth it considering government contracts &#34;are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait,&#34; according to Karp.</p><p><b>Stock-Based Compensation and Shareholder Dilution</b>: Another chronic qualm with Palantir has been its heavy stock based compensation and shareholder dilution, as you can see in the chart below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a807f1f0923e919368c125782c78\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>However, in retrospect Palantir&#39;s actions appear prudent considering, as Karp puts it in the shareholder letter:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We repeatedly decided to raise and preserve capital when others were spending.Our strategy in this regard has secured our ability to continue refining and developing our software platforms in order to maximize their value to our customers over the long term.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Specifically, Palantir was raising capital when its market value was higher (smart), has now eliminated all debt now that interest rates are higher (also smart) and now generates massive amounts of free cash flow and has ample cash on its balance sheet to support its business (at a time when raising external capital is now more expensive).</p><p><b>Negative Net Income</b>: We mentioned &#34;improving bottom line&#34; as a positive, net income is still negative (and expected to stay that way until 2025) and that is a big negative to a lot of investors, especially in the current market environment where interest rates are rising and investors put increasingly more value on current earnings and less value on future earnings. Even though profitability is trending in the right direction, Palantir still generates no net income.</p><p><b>Industrywide Challenges</b>: And another huge negative for Palantir is the current extreme challenges the overall industry (and economy) is facing (as we will cover in detail in the next section of this report). However, Palantir&#39;s Chief Business Affairs and Legal Officer explained it like this during the quarterly call:</p><blockquote><i>As organizations around the world face more pressure and experience more pain, there will be a slowdown in the rate of spending and lengthening of sales cycles, but it will also reveal gaps in enterprises operations. Gaps our software can solve.In the short term, this means less revenue now. But on longer time horizons, it accelerates our business.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>We&#39;ll share our strong opinion about investing in Palantir (in the current market environment) in the conclusion of this report, but first it is worthwhile to consider more of the macroeconomic environment which helps underpin our views.</p><p>Macroeconomic Reasons to Stay Bearish on Palantir (and the Market in General):</p><p>Like other companies, Palantir currently faces a variety of massive macroeconomic challenges that give a lot of investors reason to stay extremely bearish. For example, inflation is sky high (very bad for the economy), the Fed keeps raising rates to fight inflation (but this has the side effect of slowing the economy), there are lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a terrible war in Europe and economists remain very pessimistic (as you can see in the following chart).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38c5b70e1a16947ad27cd31e466a1f\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Wall Street Journal</p><p>Further the federal budget deficit is about to create another big drag on the economy. If you don&#39;t know, the federal budget deficit is the difference between government revenues (i.e. taxes) and government spending. And while years of government deficit spending can create enormous long-term economic problems, the short-term deficit fluctuations can exacerbate near-term challenges.</p><p>Counterintuitive to some, when the economy is strong, the government should reduce spending (build a rainy-day fund), and when the economy is struggling, extra government spending can actually help end the funk. Unfortunately, the economy is struggling big time this year, yet the government has dramatically reduced deficit spending, as you can see in the following chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac674eb8a63a4c87f03f8285114e8e66\" tg-width=\"1162\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bipartisan Policy Center</p><p>And according to GMO Capital&#39;sJeremy Grantham, this reduced government deficit may be about to cause corporate profit margins and earnings to take a hit, due to the Kalecki equation(basically, reduced government deficit spending will be a hit to corporate earnings, and this is not yet reflected in stock prices).</p><p>And of course we can make a strong case that growth stocks in particular (such as Palantir and the other names in our earlier table) are still greatly overvalued (versus value stocks) based on historical levels, such as this chart(below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a845355734238edf4d60511f6a135796\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Charles Schwab</p><p>Notice the divergence (in the chart above) becomes most pronounced around the time the US implemented and accelerated quantitative easing following the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the pandemic bubble (2020-2021), and right before the tech bubble bust (2000). Importantly, the Fed is now starting to unwind quantitative easing (increasing rates and reducing its balance sheet) which could have the opposite affect (i.e. growth could start to underperform value dramatically). And here is another chart on growth versus value, for your consideration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97350b28cfa6f02b7ed3cbb8da022107\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>JP Morgan</p><p>Further, a slew of recent layoff announcements by technology companies (see table below) suggest growth stocks in particular are just now finally bracing for the challenging markets ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe29d0f62d8b6a744287ace5791248a\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"1029\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Crunchbase</p><p><b>More Pandemic Darlings Worth Considering</b></p><p>With all of the negative things going on in the market, the thought of investing in growth stocks right now makes a lot of people want to puke. Even though Jeremy Grantham&#39;s latest report (linked earlier) suggests we are just now entering the final stage of the market&#39;s latest &#34;super bubble,&#34; the market has already been puking (particularly growth stocks) this year, and from a contrarian long-term investment standpoint - some investors believe that&#39;s the best time to be buying stocks in buckets. Let&#39;s take a closer look at a few high growth stocks in particular, before finally concluding this report with a few important takeaways and our strong opinion on investing in this market.</p><p><b>Datadog</b>(DDOG)</p><p>Datadog is a performance monitoring and cloud security platform, and the shares are more than 50% below their 52-week high as the valuation has taken an extreme hit as the pandemic bubble bursts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fdd261203344e781999772d71eece7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"922\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>However, Datadog continues to benefit from the three important growth stock characteristics we described earlier, including very high revenue growth (see chart above), a large TAM (so it can keep growing, see below) and the company is led by its founder (CEO Olivier Pomel cofounded the company along with CTO Alexis Lê-Quôc, in 2010).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606abe56c40452a715c442428bf21c8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>Also Datadog was named a leader in the 2022 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Application Performance Monitoring and Observability (see below). This is a very good thing for its continuing industry leadership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c5f0f318e5e7fcf1c2c7a1d0f4d6a1a\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>Also, Datadog has high customer retention rates (also very good for continuing growth, see below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b79e91c50944b985847e9c5ce7a95f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>And again, its valuation has come way down over the last year (for example, both its price and price-to-sales ratios are significantly below their 52-week highs, as you can see in our earlier table), but its high revenue growth remains intact as it moves closer to GAAP profitability (all good things). We&#39;ll have more to say about Datadog in the conclusion of this report.</p><p><b>The Trade Desk</b>(TTD)</p><p>The Trade Desk is another high-growth stock that has recently sold off very hard (it&#39;s down more than 30% this year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c8205e9996a50cd1b3614c8745ca8f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"975\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Trade Desk Investor Presentation</p><p>And like the other growth stocks we have highlighted in this report, it is an attractive founder-led business (Jeff Green is co-founder and current CEO), with very high revenue growth (see graphic above), and a very large TAM (see the graphic below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5835d0d241411e28f035d95c99c49e7d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Trade Desk Investor Presentation</p><p>If you don&#39;t know, The Trade Desk is basically a self-service omni-channel advertising platform that allows ad buyers to pick from over 500 billion digital ad opportunities a day (including targeted ads across connected TV, mobile, video, audio, display, social, and native). We recently wrote about The Trade Desk in detail last month (where we correctly predicted that it would resume its steep share price declines in the short term), and we&#39;ll have more to say about The Trade Desk in the conclusion of this report.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>The market is ugly. Very ugly. Aside from the sky-high valuation levels many top growth stocks achieved last year (a bubble that continues to burst), macroeconomic conditions are bad (as described in this report). And unless you are in a position to buy-and-hold for the next decade, it would probably be a terrible idea to dump 100% of your nest egg into high growth stocks as described in this report (you might instead want to consider our recent report: Top 10 Big-Dividend Preferred Stocks).</p><p>On the other hand, if you are a long-term investor, you have a distinct advantage. That is to say, long-term compound growth is one of the most powerful wealth-creating machines in the history of the world, but only if you have the ability to hang on (to high-growth secular leaders like Palantir, The Trade Desk and Datadog) through years of very high volatility (like we are experiencing now). In fact, this year&#39;s steep price declines may get even worse (for reasons described in this report), but if you truly are a long-term investor you might also want to consider our expanded list of 150 top growth stocks down big (which also includes a few more top growth stock ideas in particular) especially because we strongly believe the market will eventually get better.</p><p>No one knows where the market will be next week, next month or even next year. But over the long-term, it&#39;s likely eventually going much higher (especially top growth stocks, like Palantir). And over the long-term, top-quality dividends stocks are also likely to keep paying big, steady, growing dividends. Choose an investment strategy that is right for you, based on your unique situation and goals. We believe disciplined, long-term, goal-focused investing will continue to be a winner.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 16:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198620014","content_text":"SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including TAM, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share-based compensation, dilution, and industrywide challenges).We also dive deep into the very ugly macroeconomic reasons to stay bearish on the market (things can still get much worse) and on Palantir, especially in the near term.After reviewing three high-growth stocks in total from the list, we conclude with some important takeaways and our strong opinion about investing in Palantir and in the current market environment.After the initial pandemic shock in 2020, certain high-growth stocks performed well. Extremely well. Bolstered by extraordinarily low interest rates and a new crowd of \"work-from-homers\" (with newfound time to \"invest\") it seemed the sky was the limit. Until it wasn't. Flash forward to now, the markethas fallen sharply this year (especially high-growth stocks), and there is no short supply of reasons to stay bearish. Very bearish. In this report, we share data on 50 high-growth stocks that have crashed, run through a list of compelling reasons (data points) to stay bearish, and then discuss the merits of three interesting high-growth stocks from the list that have crashed particularly hard, with a special focus on pandemic darling, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), including its positive and negatives (such as total addressable market, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share based compensation, dilution and industrywide challenges). We conclude with some important takeaways and our very strong opinion about investing in Palantir and investing in this market in general.50 High-Growth Pandemic Darlings That CrashedFor starters, here is a look at 50 high-growth \"pandemic darling\" stocks (concentrated in software industries) that have crashed hard this year. The table is sorted by market cap, and you likely see at least a few that you are very familiar with.Stock RoverA lot of conservative value-oriented investors take a lot of satisfaction seeing the sharp declines this year. They warned (often loudly) that valuations were absurdly high considering many of these pandemic darlings have never even generated a profit. What's more, there are a lot of very compelling reasons to stay bearish on these stocks (such as high inflation, rising interest rates, lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a war in Europe and indications that corporate profit estimates are still too high based on the federal budget deficit) as we will cover in more detail in a later section of this report. But first, let's take a look at one of the most hyped stocks in recent history, that rose dramatically during the pandemic, and has now fallen very hard, Palantir.Palantir: Pandemic Stock Poster ChildPalantir is basically a data-mining software company that has strangely generated a cult-like internet following since its September 2020 IPO (despite the fact that it has existed since 2003). Perhaps it's the company's secret government contracts that had so many investors mystified, or its expansion into the non-government Software-as-Service business at exactly the time when those stocks were being most hyped (because artificially low interest rates by the Fed dramatically magnified the present value of \"possible\" future earnings for those types of stocks) or maybe even its unusual name (it's named after a mystical, all-powerful seeing stone in \"Lord of the Rings\"). Whatever the case may be, Palantir shares soared to very high valuations (for example, see how its current price-to-sales multiple compares to its 5-year (technically 2-year) range in our earlier table above).Palantir Positives:Before getting into the very negative things working against Palantir in the next sections of this report (both company-specific and macroeconomic) let's first consider a few of the good things the company has going for it.Three things to look for in a growth stock: For starters, three big things many long-term growth investors look for in a stock are a founder CEO (check: CEO Alex Karp cofounded Palantir), a very high revenue growth rate (check: the 3-year revenue CAGR is 41%, and it is expected to keep growing rapidly, per our earlier table) and a very large Total Addressable Market (check: see the \"TAM\" graphic below from Palantir's latest investorpresentation).Palantir Investor PresentationLarge TAM: Specifically, as you can see in the chart above, each of Palantir's major businesses have continued to grow rapidly over time and continue to have large growth potential (dotted line). For reference:Palantir Gotham is a software platform that enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform.Palantir Foundry is a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.Apollo is a software that enables customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.And according to CEO Alex Karp during the latest earnings call:\"We have 5 of the most interesting, important and crazy baller, impactful products in the world: PG, Foundry, Nexus Peering, MetaConstellation and Apollo, all of which were built before their time, all of which have made a 41% CAGR possible.\"More specifically, in his latest letter to shareholders, Karp explained:\"Our platforms consist of more than 700 component parts and 65 separate applications...Each one of those component parts has the potential to become a dominant and standalone software product in its own right.\"Further, Karp had this to say about TAM:\"We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.\"Founder CEO: Further, Karp is a strong leader constantly building the brand by highlighting the strengths of the products (for example, on the call he explained \"their quintessential attribute that large companies, which essentially control distribution, cannot easily copy them or if at all\"), and the long-term anti Wall Street approach to the business (for example, Karp says \"we run this company as owners, and we do not run it purely to actually make people happy quarter-to-quarter.\").Client Growth: In addition to high revenue growth, Palantir continues to grow its clients (which have a very high retention rate - Palantir ended Q2 2022 with net dollar retention rate of 119% - high retention is often typical for the very attractive SaaS business model)High Margins and Strong Innovation: Palantir has very high gross margins (see our earlier table), and strong innovation (as per its high research margin and strong expansion into non-government clients).Improving Bottom Line: Like a lot of high-growth business, Palantir is not yet profitable. And while this may sound like a big negative (especially considering the company has been around for almost 20 years) it is actually by design. Specifically, Palantir continues to spend heavily to capture attractive revenue growth opportunities (the types of revenue growth opportunities other companies wish they had). Moreover, Palantir's losses are shrinking (it's moving towards profitability). Per the shareholder letter, Palantir is now strongly free cash flow positive, and per the quarterly call, Karp expects to be \"a profitable company in 2025.\"Palantir Shareholder LetterAs unattractive as it is to some, Palantir's decision to focus on revenue growth over bottom line income (for now) is the right decision in terms of maximizing long-term shareholder value (whether or not you are the right type of shareholder - you probably already know - but we will address this topic in the conclusion of this report).Increasingly Reasonable Valuation: And of course, Palantir's valuation multiples are dramatically lower than they were (price-to-sales is now only 12.8% of what it was, per our earlier table) and relatively attractive as compared to peers and as compared to its high revenue growth and large TAM.Despite the dramatic share price sell off (shares currently sit at only 4.9% of their 52-week price range), Palantir continues to have a lot of long-term attractive qualities.Palantir Negatives:Of course there are a lot of negative things (challenges) Palantir currently faces, including the negative company-specific things we will cover in this section, plus the massively daunting macroeconomic challenges we will cover in the next section.Slowing Government Revenue Growth: For example, Palantir'sgovernment revenue(supposedly its \"bread and butter\") is slowing.Palantir Investor PresentationAccording to a research note from Brad Zelnick at Deutsche Bank (Zelnick rates Palantir a \"sell\"):\"While we've always been more skeptical of Palantir's commercial opportunity, our thesis was rooted in what we saw as a uniquely strong position in Public Sector… Now with the Gov't business further decelerating off of easier compares and with diminished confidence/visibility ahead, we are left with very little to support our thesis.\"Palantir lowered its forward guidance this quarter based on uncertainty around government contracts. This issue was addressed repeatedly during the call by explaining revenues are lumpy (there have actually been \"a number of years where [revenue] was flat or even negative\"), but worth it considering government contracts \"are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait,\" according to Karp.Stock-Based Compensation and Shareholder Dilution: Another chronic qualm with Palantir has been its heavy stock based compensation and shareholder dilution, as you can see in the chart below.YChartsHowever, in retrospect Palantir's actions appear prudent considering, as Karp puts it in the shareholder letter:\"We repeatedly decided to raise and preserve capital when others were spending.Our strategy in this regard has secured our ability to continue refining and developing our software platforms in order to maximize their value to our customers over the long term.\"Specifically, Palantir was raising capital when its market value was higher (smart), has now eliminated all debt now that interest rates are higher (also smart) and now generates massive amounts of free cash flow and has ample cash on its balance sheet to support its business (at a time when raising external capital is now more expensive).Negative Net Income: We mentioned \"improving bottom line\" as a positive, net income is still negative (and expected to stay that way until 2025) and that is a big negative to a lot of investors, especially in the current market environment where interest rates are rising and investors put increasingly more value on current earnings and less value on future earnings. Even though profitability is trending in the right direction, Palantir still generates no net income.Industrywide Challenges: And another huge negative for Palantir is the current extreme challenges the overall industry (and economy) is facing (as we will cover in detail in the next section of this report). However, Palantir's Chief Business Affairs and Legal Officer explained it like this during the quarterly call:As organizations around the world face more pressure and experience more pain, there will be a slowdown in the rate of spending and lengthening of sales cycles, but it will also reveal gaps in enterprises operations. Gaps our software can solve.In the short term, this means less revenue now. But on longer time horizons, it accelerates our business.\"We'll share our strong opinion about investing in Palantir (in the current market environment) in the conclusion of this report, but first it is worthwhile to consider more of the macroeconomic environment which helps underpin our views.Macroeconomic Reasons to Stay Bearish on Palantir (and the Market in General):Like other companies, Palantir currently faces a variety of massive macroeconomic challenges that give a lot of investors reason to stay extremely bearish. For example, inflation is sky high (very bad for the economy), the Fed keeps raising rates to fight inflation (but this has the side effect of slowing the economy), there are lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a terrible war in Europe and economists remain very pessimistic (as you can see in the following chart).Wall Street JournalFurther the federal budget deficit is about to create another big drag on the economy. If you don't know, the federal budget deficit is the difference between government revenues (i.e. taxes) and government spending. And while years of government deficit spending can create enormous long-term economic problems, the short-term deficit fluctuations can exacerbate near-term challenges.Counterintuitive to some, when the economy is strong, the government should reduce spending (build a rainy-day fund), and when the economy is struggling, extra government spending can actually help end the funk. Unfortunately, the economy is struggling big time this year, yet the government has dramatically reduced deficit spending, as you can see in the following chart.Bipartisan Policy CenterAnd according to GMO Capital'sJeremy Grantham, this reduced government deficit may be about to cause corporate profit margins and earnings to take a hit, due to the Kalecki equation(basically, reduced government deficit spending will be a hit to corporate earnings, and this is not yet reflected in stock prices).And of course we can make a strong case that growth stocks in particular (such as Palantir and the other names in our earlier table) are still greatly overvalued (versus value stocks) based on historical levels, such as this chart(below).Charles SchwabNotice the divergence (in the chart above) becomes most pronounced around the time the US implemented and accelerated quantitative easing following the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the pandemic bubble (2020-2021), and right before the tech bubble bust (2000). Importantly, the Fed is now starting to unwind quantitative easing (increasing rates and reducing its balance sheet) which could have the opposite affect (i.e. growth could start to underperform value dramatically). And here is another chart on growth versus value, for your consideration.JP MorganFurther, a slew of recent layoff announcements by technology companies (see table below) suggest growth stocks in particular are just now finally bracing for the challenging markets ahead.CrunchbaseMore Pandemic Darlings Worth ConsideringWith all of the negative things going on in the market, the thought of investing in growth stocks right now makes a lot of people want to puke. Even though Jeremy Grantham's latest report (linked earlier) suggests we are just now entering the final stage of the market's latest \"super bubble,\" the market has already been puking (particularly growth stocks) this year, and from a contrarian long-term investment standpoint - some investors believe that's the best time to be buying stocks in buckets. Let's take a closer look at a few high growth stocks in particular, before finally concluding this report with a few important takeaways and our strong opinion on investing in this market.Datadog(DDOG)Datadog is a performance monitoring and cloud security platform, and the shares are more than 50% below their 52-week high as the valuation has taken an extreme hit as the pandemic bubble bursts.Datadog Investor PresentationHowever, Datadog continues to benefit from the three important growth stock characteristics we described earlier, including very high revenue growth (see chart above), a large TAM (so it can keep growing, see below) and the company is led by its founder (CEO Olivier Pomel cofounded the company along with CTO Alexis Lê-Quôc, in 2010).Datadog Investor PresentationAlso Datadog was named a leader in the 2022 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Application Performance Monitoring and Observability (see below). This is a very good thing for its continuing industry leadership.Datadog Investor PresentationAlso, Datadog has high customer retention rates (also very good for continuing growth, see below).Datadog Investor PresentationAnd again, its valuation has come way down over the last year (for example, both its price and price-to-sales ratios are significantly below their 52-week highs, as you can see in our earlier table), but its high revenue growth remains intact as it moves closer to GAAP profitability (all good things). We'll have more to say about Datadog in the conclusion of this report.The Trade Desk(TTD)The Trade Desk is another high-growth stock that has recently sold off very hard (it's down more than 30% this year).The Trade Desk Investor PresentationAnd like the other growth stocks we have highlighted in this report, it is an attractive founder-led business (Jeff Green is co-founder and current CEO), with very high revenue growth (see graphic above), and a very large TAM (see the graphic below).The Trade Desk Investor PresentationIf you don't know, The Trade Desk is basically a self-service omni-channel advertising platform that allows ad buyers to pick from over 500 billion digital ad opportunities a day (including targeted ads across connected TV, mobile, video, audio, display, social, and native). We recently wrote about The Trade Desk in detail last month (where we correctly predicted that it would resume its steep share price declines in the short term), and we'll have more to say about The Trade Desk in the conclusion of this report.ConclusionThe market is ugly. Very ugly. Aside from the sky-high valuation levels many top growth stocks achieved last year (a bubble that continues to burst), macroeconomic conditions are bad (as described in this report). And unless you are in a position to buy-and-hold for the next decade, it would probably be a terrible idea to dump 100% of your nest egg into high growth stocks as described in this report (you might instead want to consider our recent report: Top 10 Big-Dividend Preferred Stocks).On the other hand, if you are a long-term investor, you have a distinct advantage. That is to say, long-term compound growth is one of the most powerful wealth-creating machines in the history of the world, but only if you have the ability to hang on (to high-growth secular leaders like Palantir, The Trade Desk and Datadog) through years of very high volatility (like we are experiencing now). In fact, this year's steep price declines may get even worse (for reasons described in this report), but if you truly are a long-term investor you might also want to consider our expanded list of 150 top growth stocks down big (which also includes a few more top growth stock ideas in particular) especially because we strongly believe the market will eventually get better.No one knows where the market will be next week, next month or even next year. But over the long-term, it's likely eventually going much higher (especially top growth stocks, like Palantir). And over the long-term, top-quality dividends stocks are also likely to keep paying big, steady, growing dividends. Choose an investment strategy that is right for you, based on your unique situation and goals. We believe disciplined, long-term, goal-focused investing will continue to be a winner.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994877720,"gmtCreate":1661613092062,"gmtModify":1676536549630,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994877720","repostId":"2262901563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262901563","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661571503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262901563?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 11:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Did the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262901563","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A big drop sent the Dow down more than a thousand points.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank&#39;s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite discouraged by what they heard, as Powell restated the Fed&#39;s determination to push interest rates as high as they needed to go in order to ensure that inflationary pressures don&#39;t become permanently entrenched in the U.S. economy. For those who had hoped for a more dovish response, that was bad news, and the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average </b>ended the day down more than a thousand points. Percentage drops for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> were also in the 3% to 4% range.</p><p>Among large-cap stocks, there were only a handful of gainers as most share prices followed the broader market lower. Some now fear that the rebound that the market saw from mid-June to about a week ago may well prove to have been only a bear market rally, with today&#39;s downward move reestablishing a bearish trend that could take market indexes far lower.</p><table><thead><tr></tr></thead></table><p>There&#39;s no way to predict short-term price movements in the stock market. However, efforts to fight inflation, if successful, should result in better long-term results for investors than if the Fed simply backed off and allowed higher price trends to become a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.</p><h2>Stubborn inflation</h2><p>The big question still facing investors is whether inflation has peaked. Many of those watching economic data were pleased to see the upward moves in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) start to moderate recently. However, just because inflation has stopped accelerating doesn&#39;t mean that it&#39;s under control.</p><p>The latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the PCE tell  the story well. The headline number that most people emphasized was that the price index fell 0.1% in July, with goods prices falling 0.4%.</p><p>However, looking more closely at what goes into the PCE price index gives a more complete picture. Much of the downward pressure on the index came from a 7.7% drop in the sub-index for gasoline and other energy goods. That by itself was enough to send nondurable goods prices down half a percent, even as food and beverage prices jumped 1.3% month over month.</p><p>Some other key components showed continued rises. Housing and utility costs were up 0.6% for the month, extending their gain over the past 12 months to 7%.</p><p>Perhaps most importantly, even larger declines in a single month wouldn&#39;t by themselves reverse adverse trends. Energy costs are still more than 45% higher than they were this time last year. Food and beverages are up nearly 12% year over year, and even when you exclude food and energy, core PCE prices are up 4.6% since July 2021 -- more than double the 2% target that the Fed pursues.</p><h2>Is a recession worth long-term prosperity?</h2><p>Investors worry that a prolonged set of interest-rate increases from the Fed will push the economy into recession and restrain business activity. If that view from the Fed was unexpectedly hawkish, then it could leave stock market participants facing downward revisions on earnings estimates that could send stock prices lower once again.</p><p>In the long run, though, the impact of inflation on stock prices historically has been more difficult to overcome than short-term business cycle fluctuations. When you look back at recent bouts of inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, for instance, you&#39;ll notice significant volatility in stock markets that led to subpar returns. Only when inflationary pressures were resolved did solid bull markets result, and the long bull markets of the 1990s, mid-2000s, and 2010s all came in economic environments with little or no inflation.</p><p>It&#39;s indeed possible that a central bank with tight monetary policy might bring short-term pain to the stock market and an end to what might materialize as a bear market rally. However, I believe investors will be happier with this outcome in the long run than they would be with sustained inflation and the complications that come with it.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Did the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDid the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-27 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262901563","content_text":"Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite discouraged by what they heard, as Powell restated the Fed's determination to push interest rates as high as they needed to go in order to ensure that inflationary pressures don't become permanently entrenched in the U.S. economy. For those who had hoped for a more dovish response, that was bad news, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down more than a thousand points. Percentage drops for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also in the 3% to 4% range.Among large-cap stocks, there were only a handful of gainers as most share prices followed the broader market lower. Some now fear that the rebound that the market saw from mid-June to about a week ago may well prove to have been only a bear market rally, with today's downward move reestablishing a bearish trend that could take market indexes far lower.There's no way to predict short-term price movements in the stock market. However, efforts to fight inflation, if successful, should result in better long-term results for investors than if the Fed simply backed off and allowed higher price trends to become a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.Stubborn inflationThe big question still facing investors is whether inflation has peaked. Many of those watching economic data were pleased to see the upward moves in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) start to moderate recently. However, just because inflation has stopped accelerating doesn't mean that it's under control.The latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the PCE tell  the story well. The headline number that most people emphasized was that the price index fell 0.1% in July, with goods prices falling 0.4%.However, looking more closely at what goes into the PCE price index gives a more complete picture. Much of the downward pressure on the index came from a 7.7% drop in the sub-index for gasoline and other energy goods. That by itself was enough to send nondurable goods prices down half a percent, even as food and beverage prices jumped 1.3% month over month.Some other key components showed continued rises. Housing and utility costs were up 0.6% for the month, extending their gain over the past 12 months to 7%.Perhaps most importantly, even larger declines in a single month wouldn't by themselves reverse adverse trends. Energy costs are still more than 45% higher than they were this time last year. Food and beverages are up nearly 12% year over year, and even when you exclude food and energy, core PCE prices are up 4.6% since July 2021 -- more than double the 2% target that the Fed pursues.Is a recession worth long-term prosperity?Investors worry that a prolonged set of interest-rate increases from the Fed will push the economy into recession and restrain business activity. If that view from the Fed was unexpectedly hawkish, then it could leave stock market participants facing downward revisions on earnings estimates that could send stock prices lower once again.In the long run, though, the impact of inflation on stock prices historically has been more difficult to overcome than short-term business cycle fluctuations. When you look back at recent bouts of inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, for instance, you'll notice significant volatility in stock markets that led to subpar returns. Only when inflationary pressures were resolved did solid bull markets result, and the long bull markets of the 1990s, mid-2000s, and 2010s all came in economic environments with little or no inflation.It's indeed possible that a central bank with tight monetary policy might bring short-term pain to the stock market and an end to what might materialize as a bear market rally. However, I believe investors will be happier with this outcome in the long run than they would be with sustained inflation and the complications that come with it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995476087,"gmtCreate":1661508904252,"gmtModify":1676536532387,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995476087","repostId":"1153153537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153153537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661502349,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153153537?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153153537","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, wit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>After a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&amp;P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.</li><li>In this article, I briefly review how we got to &#34;The world of 4,818.&#34; I then submit why I believe we aren&#39;t returning to that world anytime soon.</li><li>Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/848620917b37246e8700ad06034642a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1074\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><p>This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.</p><p>Here&#39;s just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.</p><blockquote>As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? <i>Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering &#34;a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.</i>&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&amp;P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar&#39;s observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&amp;P.</p><p>Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then it<i>continued</i>to rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&amp;P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.</p><p>Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way &#34;out of the woods,&#34; so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.</p><p>Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.</p><p><b>Revisiting The World Of 4,818</b></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.</p><p>To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.</p><p>Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; financial environment can continue. Here&#39;s one example, from Morgan Stanley.</p><blockquote>These developments indicate markets may be counting on a &#34;Goldilocks&#34; scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.</blockquote><p>Very briefly, let&#39;s touch on the &#34;Goldilocks&#34; environment that got us to 4,818. We&#39;ll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.</p><p>Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.</p><p>Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks&#39; terms, this can be considered &#34;just right&#34;.</p><p>In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed&#39;s 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.</p><p>In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.</p><p>In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.</p><p>In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be &#34;transitory&#34; in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.</p><p><b>However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed</b>. There were many other factors that could be described in &#34;Goldilocks&#34; terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were <b>geopolitical</b> in nature.</p><p>Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.</p><blockquote>U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,<i>until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world</i>. (Italics mine, for emphasis)</blockquote><p>In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the &#34;low inflation world.&#34;</p><p>With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world&#39;s major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.</p><p><b>The World of 4,818 Confronts Change</b></p><p>As investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).</p><p><i>Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818</i>?</p><p>Let&#39;s briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.</p><p><b>Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary Inflation</b></p><p>Briefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.</p><p>Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excess<i>credit</i>at low interest rates must also be considered.</p><p>In short, an individual earns<i>income</i>from productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access to<i>credit</i>. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.</p><p>With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf6b0d13c5a6650c2958181a32d51c0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)</span></p><p>Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>In addition to income, then, this growing amount of<i>credit</i>has contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.</p><p>Here&#39;s the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.</p><p>Here&#39;s an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.</p><blockquote><i>Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.</i>. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.<i>In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.</i>(Italics mine)</blockquote><p>Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.</p><p>How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora&#39;s box of inflation will be easily closed.</p><p>In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will &#34;chicken out&#34; and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.</p><p>As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, &#34;Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?&#34; at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group&#39;s 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.</p><p>I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:</p><blockquote><i>The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it&#39;s not realistic</i>. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.&#34; (Italics mine)</blockquote><p>In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Challenge #2: Geopolitical Shocks</b></p><p>As featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).</p><p>I won&#39;t spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.</p><p>In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a &#34;hot war&#34; as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin&#39;s world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the &#34;decadent&#34; west.</p><p>These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.</p><p>Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the &#34;Century of Humiliation&#34;. Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.</p><p>In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.</p><p>These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.</p><p><b>Putting It All Together</b></p><p>I don&#39;t claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won&#39;t go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.</p><p>However, here are a few things to consider.</p><p>We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.</p><p>Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one&#39;s portfolio.</p><p>Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.</p><p>Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: The World Of 4,818 Faces An Uncertain Future\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4536684-spy-the-world-of-4818-faces-an-uncertain-future","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153153537","content_text":"SummaryAfter a sharp decline, the U.S. stock market, in particular, has staged a powerful rally, with the S&P and Nasdaq up 20% and 25% from the June lows.In this article, I briefly review how we got to \"The world of 4,818.\" I then submit why I believe we aren't returning to that world anytime soon.Finally, I offer a few observations as to what this might mean for your portfolio.DNY59This past May 15, I wrote an article based on a then-recent note from Credit Suisse Investment Strategist Zoltan Pozsar.Here's just a tiny snippet of what I wrote inthat article.As Pozsar says, the message [of recent quotes from Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York], could not be clearer. What might this entail? Pozsar suggests that the Fed could go as far as engineering \"a (covert) recession . . . in order to maintain price stability.\" (Italics mine)Not long after that, in roughly mid-June, the S&P index bottomed around the 3,636 range, and the Nasdaq at 10,565. Based on Pozsar's observations, I felt at the time that the market might experience a small relief rally but then fall back again, possibly even to the 3,400 range on the S&P.Sure enough, the market rallied. So far, so good. But then itcontinuedto rally, doing so to a much greater extent than I would have thought possible. During the trading session of August 16, the S&P briefly touched 4,325 and the Nasdaq 13,181, roughly 20% and 25% above those June lows.Some of this powerful rally came after the July, 2022 inflation number came in at 8.5%, surprising to the downside for the first time in a while. This likely led to the thought that we may have been on our way \"out of the woods,\" so to speak, in the battle against inflation. As for me, I left money on the table during this rally. While I was fortunate enough to increase my weighting in stocks fairly close to those June lows, I sold that additional weighting far too soon into the upturn.Certainly, this was a humbling experience, and it caused me to spend a fair amount of time reading analysis from qualified sources I respect. In short, that review only strengthened my belief that the strength of the recent rally was a mirage, and that we are in for some fairly challenging times ahead.Revisiting The World Of 4,818The S&P 500 reached its all-time high of 4,818 during the trading session of January 4, 2022.To properly understand some of the challenges ahead, it helps to take a brief look at how we got to 4,818 in the first place. Now, please do not take my reference to 4,818 to mean that there were no issues before January 4, far from it. At the same time, that high was achieved based on a set of economic circumstances that I will go on to argue may not repeat themselves in the foreseeable future.Commentators on the recent rally have expressed the view that investors appear to believe that a \"Goldilocks\" financial environment can continue. Here's one example, from Morgan Stanley.These developments indicate markets may be counting on a \"Goldilocks\" scenario, where policymakers tame inflation with limited damage to economic growth and keep long-term rates low by historical standards.Very briefly, let's touch on the \"Goldilocks\" environment that got us to 4,818. We'll start at the point of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009.Following the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in addition to lowering short-term interest rates to zero the Fed engaged in what is known as quantitative easing (QE). Normally, monetary policy this stimulative in nature would have led to inflation. And yet, the U.S. inflation rate remained low.Between 2010 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index CPI ranged between 0.12% to 3.1%, averaging roughly 2%. In Goldilocks' terms, this can be considered \"just right\".In 2018, inflation experienced a small upwards blip, to 2.44%. However, in 2019, inflation slid back below the Fed's 2% target, dropping to 1.8%.In 2020, COVID hit. This sudden shock to the economy caused yet more stimulus to be introduced. In combination, the effect of this was to both increase the money supply, as well as hold down longer-term interest rates.In time, however, inflation started to raise its ugly head. The pandemic led to a drop in spending on services but a sharp increase in spending on goods, as people found themselves confined to their homes. Then came supply chain issues, followed by the war in Ukraine.In spite of this, the Fed left monetary stimulus in place through the entirety of 2021, contending that such inflation would be \"transitory\" in nature. It was not until February 18, 2022 that the Fed approved a 1/4 percent interest rate hike.However, the picture goes much deeper than the Fed. There were many other factors that could be described in \"Goldilocks\" terms that led to 4,818. In large part, these were geopolitical in nature.Here is how Zoltan Pozsar expressed this, in a very recent note. He started by referencing cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S., cheap goods from China, and cheap Russian gas. He capped it with this marvelously-worded explanation.U.S. consumers were soaking up all the cheap stuff the world had to offer: the asset rich, benefiting from decades of QE, bought high-end stuff from Europe produced using cheap Russian gas, and lower-income households bought all the cheap stuff coming from China. All this has worked for decades,until nativism, protectionism, and geopolitics destabilized the low inflation world. (Italics mine, for emphasis)In short, in the biggest of all pictures, for the past few decades the world trended towards globalization. Taking advantage of cheap labor and resources, strong supply chains were built. Goods were produced as cheaply as possible, then transported efficiently to the ultimate consumer. In the quote above, Pozsar refers to this as the \"low inflation world.\"With respect to geopolitics, certainly there were several wars and other conflicts in specific areas of the globe. Nevertheless, there was at least what might be described as mutually-beneficial tolerance between the world's major powers, notably the United States, China, and Russia.The World of 4,818 Confronts ChangeAs investors, however, we must look forward as opposed to backwards, to the future instead of the past. Here, to me, is the million-dollar question (perhaps literally for some of us).Do you believe the world of at least the near-term future will be the same world as the one that got us to 4,818?Let's briefly talk about two related reasons why it may be very difficult for this to be the case.Challenge #1: Inflation - Including Monetary InflationBriefly, inflation becomes an enemy when the total funds available from money, income, and credit fuel an excess level of spending in relation to the quantity of goods and services that are available.Think about that last sentence for just a minute. You have likely read about the sharp increase in the M2 money supply as a result of COVID-related stimulus. However, the contribution of excesscreditat low interest rates must also be considered.In short, an individual earnsincomefrom productive labor, whatever that may be. In addition to this, however, they may have access tocredit. In the short term, this allows an individual to spend beyond his or her income. In total, all of that money chases goods and services. When there is an excess of this, inflation becomes an issue.With that thought in mind, here is a look at the Q2 2022 report on total U.S. household debt, from the New York Fed.Total U.S. Household Debt (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)Looking at the graphic, it becomes clear that the overall amount of U.S. household debt continues to rise. In fact, during Q2 it increased by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. This is $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.In addition to income, then, this growing amount ofcredithas contributed to inflation. Sharply rising housing prices, perhaps even more so than the rising stock market, have contributed to the inflation of household balance sheets. In other words, people feel rich, so they spend. And spend. And spend.Here's the specific issue, however, that seems troubling to me. It would appear that, whether spending on genuine needs or to maintain a desired lifestyle, the American consumer is turning to debt to an even greater degree.Here's an excerpt from the written summary provided with the above graphic.Credit card balances saw a $46 billion increase since the first quarter - although seasonal patterns typically include an increase in the second quarter, the 13% year-over-year increase marked the largest in more than 20 years.. . . Auto loan balances increased by $33 billion in the second quarter, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2011. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by a robust $25 billion.In total, non-housing balances grew by $103 billion, a 2.4% increase from the previous quarter, the largest increase seen since 2016.(Italics mine)Summarized, of the $312 billion increase in overall debt during the quarter, roughly one-third of that had nothing to do with housing, but related either to auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.How may this affect the stock market, and even the housing market, going forward? Simply put, it does not appear that the Pandora's box of inflation will be easily closed.In the opening section of this article, I introduced the thought that some may believe that, after a quick round of tightening, the Fed will \"chicken out\" and cut interest rates, perhaps even in early-2023.As it happens, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently participated in a panel discussion, \"Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?\" at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group's 2022 annual meeting in Aspen, Colorado.I will simply say that, over the course of many comments,Kashkari painted that view as unrealistic. Here is just one brief snippet from his words:The idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, I just think it's not realistic. I think a much more likely scenario is that we will raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2% before I would think about easing back on interest rates.\" (Italics mine)In summary, unless one believes that we will quickly get back to an environment of easy money, further stimulus, and cheap credit, it will be difficult to quickly return to the world of 4,818.Challenge #2: Geopolitical ShocksAs featured earlier, for decades now, we have lived in a world of increasing globalization, improving supply chains, and cheap resources (labor, goods, and commodities).I won't spend as much time dissecting this challenge as I did the previous challenge, that of inflation. All it takes is a couple of hours spent reading commentary from quality news sources to understand that this era is tremendously at risk, if not over for the foreseeable future.In February, long-simmering tensions between Russia and the West (including NATO) became a \"hot war\" as Russia - Ukraine collision. Commentators suggest that this was inspired by Vladimir Putin's world view of a Russia that assumes its rightful place in the world, as leader of a Eurasian empire that stands in opposition to the \"decadent\" west.These events have had significant economic ramifications, and not in a good way. Europe, in particular, may be headed for an extremely difficult winter.Meanwhile, China appears to be bent on reversing what Chinese refer to as the \"Century of Humiliation\". Following reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping that led to an impressive economic and military ascent. Additionally, recent events in Taiwan have led to the highest level of tension between the U.S. and China in modern history.In short, all of these developments wreak havoc with the deflationary environment that prevailed for many years, contributing instead to inflationary pressures, such as broken supply chains, COVID lockdowns in China, and the like.These issues, then, form a second challenge in quickly returning to the world of 4,818.Putting It All TogetherI don't claim to know how all of this will play out any more than anyone else does. However, while I won't go as far as calling what got us to 4,818 as a bubble, at the very least it would appear to be a confluence of circumstances that are likely a thing of the past, at least in the foreseeable future.However, here are a few things to consider.We may well be in for a multi-year period of volatility, similar to what we have experienced in 2022. Growth may slow, and inflation may prove more persistent than any of us would like.Ironically, after the worst start to a year for the traditional 60/40 portfolio since the 1970s, bonds and TIPS may be getting more attractive. The income level across the board is higher. If the actions of the Fed have the desired effect, and inflation gradually subsides, returns from bonds and TIPS may help to stabilize one's portfolio.Finally, keep an eye on international stocks, and in particular those of emerging markets. While the road ahead will almost certainly be difficult, valuations are relatively low, offering the potential for gains for investors with a long-term perspective.Thanks for taking the time to consider this somewhat lengthy article. I hope it has given you something to think about, and possibly even some things to argue about in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995478529,"gmtCreate":1661508860562,"gmtModify":1676536532378,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nvidia","listText":"Nvidia","text":"Nvidia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995478529","repostId":"2262957925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262957925","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661507104,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262957925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Was Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262957925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Cathie Wood sold some of ARK's stake in Nvidia ahead of the Q2 earnings update -- should you follow suit?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cathie Wood&#39;s asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer <b>Nvidia</b> on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like Wood and her team had the right idea. As previewed a few weeks ago, Nvidia reported a 19% quarter-over-quarter decline in second-quarter revenue to $6.7 billion -- well below previous guidance of $8.1 billion. Even worse, Nvidia said it expects third-quarter revenue to be just $5.9 billion, yet another sequential decline and down from revenue of $7.1 billion in Q3 a year ago.</p><p>Nvidia is getting hit with a cyclical decline in sales, and there&#39;s no telling how long it will last. Should you follow Wood and sell Nvidia stock yourself?</p><h2>A bet (albeit a smaller bet) on Nvidia</h2><p>First, let&#39;s acknowledge that ARK Invest&#39;s sale of Nvidia stock (worth some $50 million at yesterday&#39;s prices) is relative. The two funds that sold -- the <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a></b> and the <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKW\">ARK Next Generation Internet ETF</a></b> -- still own sizable amounts of Nvidia. Just over 1% of both funds was allocated to Nvidia stock a day before Nvidia&#39;s update for its fiscal 2023 second quarter (a three-month period that ended July 31).</p><p>Even so, Wood&#39;s ARK Invest is likely slimming down its Nvidia stake as a cyclical downturn in consumer electronics takes hold. The third-quarter outlook -- revenue of just $5.9 billion -- implies a year-over-year decline of 17% at the midpoint of guidance. Gaming hardware sales are to blame, impacted by turmoil in the cryptocurrency industry. Nvidia&#39;s graphics processing units (GPUs) are often used to mine some cryptos like <b>Bitcoin</b> and <b>Ethereum</b>, but Ethereum&#39;s Merge is eliminating the need for high-powered chips.</p><p>The good news is that margins won&#39;t be hit as hard as some investors may have expected. After adjusted gross margin took a big dip on product sold (which Nvidia said was due to clearing existing inventory at retail partners), it looks like it will rebound in Q3. Clearing old inventory was key ahead of Nvidia announcing a refreshed lineup of gaming GPUs in September.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p><b>Period</b></p></th><th><p><b>Nvidia Adjusted Gross Profit Margin</b></p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><p>Fiscal 2022</p></td><td><p>66.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q1 2023</p></td><td><p>67.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q2 2023</p></td><td><p>45.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q3 2023 (expected)</p></td><td><p>64.5% to 65.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Nvidia.</p><h2>Nvidia apparently doesn&#39;t agree with ARK Invest&#39;s sale</h2><p>If the past is any indication, this cyclical downturn for Nvidia&#39;s revenue isn&#39;t over. ARK Invest might simply be refreshing cash so it can buy stocks it thinks might perform better than Nvidia in the next six months or so as the company finds a bottom in this revenue downturn cycle.</p><p>But here&#39;s the problem: The market anticipated this cyclical downturn and clobbered Nvidia stock already this year. Sooner or later, if Nvidia&#39;s data center and automotive segments keep running higher and gaming eventually rebounds, Nvidia shares could rocket higher. Again, if the past provides a lesson for what&#39;s to come, the market will pick up on this before Nvidia reports an uptick in overall revenue growth.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67f3f5f6da7db780418988df2289aee\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang talked about how uses for Nvidia GPUs have grown substantially -- and that growth isn&#39;t slowing down. Besides gaming, Nvidia hardware powers artificial intelligence (AI) in data centers, self-driving car technology, robotics, and new cloud computing services. Apparently, Huang and company think this dip will be temporary, just like past downturns.</p><p>Don&#39;t get me wrong; things could get worse before they get better for Nvidia. Perhaps Wood and her ARK Invest plan on buying more Nvidia later as the situation improves. But if you still believe in this long-term chip and AI behemoth&#39;s story, now isn&#39;t the time to sell. The end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 would have been the time to trim a position (if that&#39;s your style). For long-term buy-and-hold investors, there&#39;s still a lot to like about Nvidia stock right now.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood's asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer Nvidia on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262957925","content_text":"Cathie Wood's asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer Nvidia on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like Wood and her team had the right idea. As previewed a few weeks ago, Nvidia reported a 19% quarter-over-quarter decline in second-quarter revenue to $6.7 billion -- well below previous guidance of $8.1 billion. Even worse, Nvidia said it expects third-quarter revenue to be just $5.9 billion, yet another sequential decline and down from revenue of $7.1 billion in Q3 a year ago.Nvidia is getting hit with a cyclical decline in sales, and there's no telling how long it will last. Should you follow Wood and sell Nvidia stock yourself?A bet (albeit a smaller bet) on NvidiaFirst, let's acknowledge that ARK Invest's sale of Nvidia stock (worth some $50 million at yesterday's prices) is relative. The two funds that sold -- the ARK Innovation ETF and the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF -- still own sizable amounts of Nvidia. Just over 1% of both funds was allocated to Nvidia stock a day before Nvidia's update for its fiscal 2023 second quarter (a three-month period that ended July 31).Even so, Wood's ARK Invest is likely slimming down its Nvidia stake as a cyclical downturn in consumer electronics takes hold. The third-quarter outlook -- revenue of just $5.9 billion -- implies a year-over-year decline of 17% at the midpoint of guidance. Gaming hardware sales are to blame, impacted by turmoil in the cryptocurrency industry. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are often used to mine some cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but Ethereum's Merge is eliminating the need for high-powered chips.The good news is that margins won't be hit as hard as some investors may have expected. After adjusted gross margin took a big dip on product sold (which Nvidia said was due to clearing existing inventory at retail partners), it looks like it will rebound in Q3. Clearing old inventory was key ahead of Nvidia announcing a refreshed lineup of gaming GPUs in September.PeriodNvidia Adjusted Gross Profit MarginFiscal 202266.8%Q1 202367.1%Q2 202345.9%Q3 2023 (expected)64.5% to 65.5%Data source: Nvidia.Nvidia apparently doesn't agree with ARK Invest's saleIf the past is any indication, this cyclical downturn for Nvidia's revenue isn't over. ARK Invest might simply be refreshing cash so it can buy stocks it thinks might perform better than Nvidia in the next six months or so as the company finds a bottom in this revenue downturn cycle.But here's the problem: The market anticipated this cyclical downturn and clobbered Nvidia stock already this year. Sooner or later, if Nvidia's data center and automotive segments keep running higher and gaming eventually rebounds, Nvidia shares could rocket higher. Again, if the past provides a lesson for what's to come, the market will pick up on this before Nvidia reports an uptick in overall revenue growth.Data by YCharts.On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang talked about how uses for Nvidia GPUs have grown substantially -- and that growth isn't slowing down. Besides gaming, Nvidia hardware powers artificial intelligence (AI) in data centers, self-driving car technology, robotics, and new cloud computing services. Apparently, Huang and company think this dip will be temporary, just like past downturns.Don't get me wrong; things could get worse before they get better for Nvidia. Perhaps Wood and her ARK Invest plan on buying more Nvidia later as the situation improves. But if you still believe in this long-term chip and AI behemoth's story, now isn't the time to sell. The end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 would have been the time to trim a position (if that's your style). For long-term buy-and-hold investors, there's still a lot to like about Nvidia stock right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995478647,"gmtCreate":1661508835793,"gmtModify":1676536532371,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995478647","repostId":"1186673642","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186673642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661504445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186673642?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 17:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How the Stock Market Performs After Jackson Hole, According to History","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186673642","media":"Barrons","summary":"The stock market usually performs well just after the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposiu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The stock market usually performs well just after the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium.</p><p>The first day of the Jackson Hole meeting usually kick-starts strong stock market performance in the near-term, historically speaking. The average move for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the month following the first day of the meeting is up 0.3%, in data dating back to 1978, according to Dow Jones Market data. The S&amp;P 500 averages a 0.5% gain, while the more volatile Nasdaq Composite averages a 0.9% rise.</p><p>There are, however, two caveats.</p><p>First off, the stock market has posted impressive gains this summer already. All three indexes are up double digits in percentage terms from their mid-June closing lows for the year. The main driver has been investors hoping that the declining rate of inflation could compel the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates in his speech Friday that a half-percentage-point rate hike is most likely on the way for September, rather than three-quarters of a point, stocks could keep rallying. But if Powell indicates a three-quarter-point hike is on the way, stocks are likely to dip.</p><p>Second, the month of September is usually the stock market’s worst month of the year. The average move for the S&amp;P 500 in September is down 1%, dating back to 1928. The effect has been less pronounced in recent years. The market actually averaged a 0.7% increase in September during the 2010s, though it averaged a 4.3% decline that month in 2020 and 2021.</p><p>Either way, investors will keep in mind the factors that are specific to this year. The stock market has enjoyed a substantial summer rally already and now the question is how fast the Fed will lift rates from here.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How the Stock Market Performs After Jackson Hole, According to History</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow the Stock Market Performs After Jackson Hole, According to History\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 17:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/jackson-hole-stock-market-history-51661448852?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market usually performs well just after the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium.The first day of the Jackson Hole meeting usually kick-starts strong stock market performance in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jackson-hole-stock-market-history-51661448852?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jackson-hole-stock-market-history-51661448852?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186673642","content_text":"The stock market usually performs well just after the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium.The first day of the Jackson Hole meeting usually kick-starts strong stock market performance in the near-term, historically speaking. The average move for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the month following the first day of the meeting is up 0.3%, in data dating back to 1978, according to Dow Jones Market data. The S&P 500 averages a 0.5% gain, while the more volatile Nasdaq Composite averages a 0.9% rise.There are, however, two caveats.First off, the stock market has posted impressive gains this summer already. All three indexes are up double digits in percentage terms from their mid-June closing lows for the year. The main driver has been investors hoping that the declining rate of inflation could compel the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates in his speech Friday that a half-percentage-point rate hike is most likely on the way for September, rather than three-quarters of a point, stocks could keep rallying. But if Powell indicates a three-quarter-point hike is on the way, stocks are likely to dip.Second, the month of September is usually the stock market’s worst month of the year. The average move for the S&P 500 in September is down 1%, dating back to 1928. The effect has been less pronounced in recent years. The market actually averaged a 0.7% increase in September during the 2010s, though it averaged a 4.3% decline that month in 2020 and 2021.Either way, investors will keep in mind the factors that are specific to this year. The stock market has enjoyed a substantial summer rally already and now the question is how fast the Fed will lift rates from here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998999349,"gmtCreate":1660914045583,"gmtModify":1676536422422,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998999349","repostId":"1142247584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142247584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660908097,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142247584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142247584","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Alibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.</li><li>With international expansion being the company&#39;s major revenue growth driver, I believe they will easily outperform current growth expectations, leading to a more stable company.</li><li>Their efforts to increase their per-user income on their merchant and commerce platforms is driving margin expansion, adding to my increasingly bullish stance.</li><li>I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and believe they will easily outperform if you&#39;re willing to take on the risks for the next 5 to 10 years.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and its share price have been in a whirlwind environment as Chinese regulatory authorities began cracking down on technology companies and potential growth disruptors emerged. About a year later, there have been signs that this crackdownis easing as regulatory agencies took a step back and are now focusing on companies who are violating specific business practices, which Alibaba, for the most part, does not partake in.</p><p>However, after the company&#39;s share price stabilized, US regulatory authorities began evaluating Chinese owned companies which were listed in the United States on US-based exchanges for possible delisting. This sent the company&#39;s share price back down towards the levels it was at during the Chinese crackdown. As no material changes to its structure or its growth prospects took place over the course of this event, I continue to believe in the company&#39;s resiliency and that current valuations present a unique investment opportunity for folks who are patient and can wait through a lot of high-profile noise which is nearly certain to emerge as the world&#39;s two economic superpowers collide.</p><p>Overall, there are certainly risks associated with this investment and any investment in a company which is under scrutiny and potential delisting, but for me - the reward is easily worth the risk at this point in time.</p><p>Here are the reasons why.</p><h2>Revenue Growth Is Steady</h2><p>Alibaba has so many revenue streams and programs that it would take several articles to go through them all, as their650 page 20-F(foreign company version of 10K) shows. But there are several revenue streams of theirs which I believe constitute an outsized portion of their growth prospects. Let&#39;s zero in.</p><p>The first one is their<b>cloud business</b>. While cloud computing is continuing to replace a significant portion of the worlds standard IT infrastructure, the company is focused on not only maximizing their cloud business in the People&#39;s Republic of China but also looking at international markets, particularly in Eastern Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, to continue and grow this business. Getting in the door early in a lot of these other countries, before they fully become a developed nation status and garner outside investments, is key to maintaining a long term presence.</p><p>The company also has another advantage, similar to Amazon (AMZN) in the United States - their cloud margins are so large that they use those profits to subsidize other expansion opportunities like their retail and commerce business expansion. Another plus is that since their margins are so large after all the infrastructure investment they put in, they have a much lower potential price point than other competitors in the Asia-Pacific region and can win cloud contracts which will aid their overall expansion efforts.</p><p>The second part is the <b>retail and commerce business</b>. I realize that these 2 business segments amount to a majority of their revenues, but they also amount to the largest portion of their expansion potential. Allowing merchants in other Asia-Pacific region nations to seamlessly sell their products and run their small businesses across the region and the world is a huge plus and as these nations become more and more of economic powerhouses, the company is set to reap the benefits of these early investments.</p><p>The company has been investing in deploying resources and building infrastructure in other regions across the world, as well as partnering with local tech and retail companies to provide their services. This, I believe, will be a big part of enabling their continued high-pace growth, even as they&#39;ve begun to saturate in the People&#39;s Republic of China with their commerce platform.</p><h2>What It Means For 2030(ish)</h2><p>Alibaba Group, according toanalyst estimates aggregated by Seeking Alpha, is projected to report revenues which are higher by about 63% by 2028, rising from $134 billion, the projected figure for this upcoming year, to just shy of $218 billion.</p><p>This represents a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 10.2% over the next 5 years when it comes to the company&#39;s revenues. Translating that to earnings shows how the company&#39;s investment are going to pay off, while they continue to work on expanding their per-user revenues which drives profits.</p><p>Over the same time period, the company is projected to report a 94% bump in EPS, rising from a projected $7.34 in the upcoming fiscal year to $14.29 in 2028. This represent a CAGR of 14.2% over the next 5 years.</p><p>There are a few reasons for this, with the most important one being margin expansion.</p><h2>Margins Expected To Increase</h2><p>Even though the company has already admitted that their user base, comprised of over 1 billion monthly average users in the People&#39;s Republic of China, is relatively saturated - they&#39;re working on expanding the per-wallet revenue, which translated to higher profits as costs for those users are already accounted for in most scenarios across their commerce platforms.</p><p>These are two of the main reasons I believe the company is set to outperform these expectations - I don&#39;t believe that analysts consensus, linked earlier, fully account for the company&#39;s international expansion efforts and that an increased revenue base may mean that short term margins will contract - the longer term margins are set to outperform as revenues increase and thus long term growth is set to outperform.</p><p>This means that a company which is currently expected to report higher margins, as evident by the higher CAGR in earnings vs revenues, is expected to, I believe, report faster growing earnings per share figures starting 2 to 3 years from now due to their international expansion efforts. This means that they are highly likely to outperform the historical annual market performance of roughly 10%. There&#39;s also another benefit I believe other companies with higher debt loads are going to begin to face which Alibaba will not.</p><h2>Interest Expense Control</h2><p>As interest rates continue to rise all around the world, Alibaba is using their cash pile to control the increase of debt and refinance their existing debt to lower overall interest expense. Even though the company&#39;s overall debt payments and interest expense are almost negligible relative to their income, the focus on this now can potentially save them several billions of dollars a year over the next decade, which can be used to increase shareholder value and help them compete for new users in new international markets.</p><p>After peaking in 2018 with the company paying $612 million a year in interest expense, they&#39;ve seen a steady reduction every year since and now pay $504 million a year in interest expense.</p><p>From 2020 to 2021, the company took on a nice new chunk of debt, rising from just shy of $17 billion to about $20.7 billion. Since then, it has remained relatively steady as they currently have about $20.6 billion in long term debt. They&#39;ve refinanced some of that debt and worked to raise money in more friendly means to avoid the rising interest rate environment.</p><p>As the company has a significant cash pile, I believe they can continue and work to reduce their debt pile to help with valuation, but given the low overall interest rate they pay, it&#39;s not as much of a priority, as long as it doesn&#39;t substantially increase.</p><h2>Valuation vs Expectations</h2><p>Currently, the company is trading at about 7x to 12x forward earnings, depending on how far out you go. Given that I believe that international expansion may keep margins at currently projected levels, I am opting to look at revenue multiples for the next 5 years to find an adequate valuation.</p><p>Comparing the company to Amazon is the most obvious choice given the similarity of their business structures and segments. Amazon is currently trading at about 2.8x forward sales for the upcoming year and 1.5x forward sales for 2028 projected sales. The companies have more or less a similar revenue growth rate projection but Alibaba is trading at a significantly lower multiple.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td><td>2026</td><td>2027</td><td>2028</td></tr><tr><td>Alibaba</td><td>+5.9%</td><td>+13.6%</td><td>+11.5%</td><td>+10.7%</td><td>+7.2%</td><td>+8.4%</td></tr><tr><td>1.8x</td><td>1.6x</td><td>1.4x</td><td>1.3x</td><td>1.2x</td><td>1.1x</td></tr><tr><td>Amazon</td><td>+11.2%</td><td>+15.4%</td><td>+14.6%</td><td>+12.3%</td><td>+13.4%</td><td>+12.7%</td></tr><tr><td>2.8x</td><td>2.4x</td><td>2.1x</td><td>1.9x</td><td>1.7x</td><td>1.5x</td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Seeking Alpha Aggregate - Analyst Projections -BABA&amp;AMZN)</p><p>An easier way to look at it is the percentage of Alibaba&#39;s growth relative to Amazon&#39;s, which although it shows that certain years may be comparable, most are not and thus Alibaba, under current projections, should be trading higher.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td><td>2026</td><td>2027</td><td>2028</td></tr><tr><td>Growth</td><td>52.7%</td><td>88.3%</td><td>78.8%</td><td>89.0%</td><td>53.7%</td><td>66.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Multiple</td><td>64.3%</td><td>66.7%</td><td>66.7%</td><td>68.4%</td><td>70.6%</td><td>73.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>Conclusion - Cheap &amp; Valuable</h2><p>Given that the aforementioned comparison to Amazon concludes that under their current projections, Alibaba is set to spend the upcoming year slightly overvalued relative to Amazon, it will spend the following 3 at a significantly lower one. This is before my expected outperformance when it comes to international expansion efforts alongside their margin expansion from working to increase their per-user revenue streams.</p><p>The later out projections are still there, but that&#39;s where I expect Alibaba to do their best once their international margins expand towards their domestic ones. I believe that by 2028, the company will be outperforming their current revenue expectations by about 20% and current earnings per share expectations by about 15%, representing a potential 13% annual rise in revenues and 16% rise in EPS over the following 5 years of the company&#39;s growth plan.</p><p>This, I believe, will easily outperform the broader market and offer investors a decent exposure to several fast growing markets in a region of the world which is becoming increasingly difficult to get without restrictions.</p><p>This investment does not come without risks, especially of delisting, but other excellent Seeking Alpha contributors have dissected the prospects of delisting and I won&#39;t bore you with repeating them here for the 10th time.</p><p>I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and have been and will continue to, add to my position over the course of the next few weeks if the share price remains where it is now.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-19 19:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.With ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142247584","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.With international expansion being the company's major revenue growth driver, I believe they will easily outperform current growth expectations, leading to a more stable company.Their efforts to increase their per-user income on their merchant and commerce platforms is driving margin expansion, adding to my increasingly bullish stance.I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and believe they will easily outperform if you're willing to take on the risks for the next 5 to 10 years.Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and its share price have been in a whirlwind environment as Chinese regulatory authorities began cracking down on technology companies and potential growth disruptors emerged. About a year later, there have been signs that this crackdownis easing as regulatory agencies took a step back and are now focusing on companies who are violating specific business practices, which Alibaba, for the most part, does not partake in.However, after the company's share price stabilized, US regulatory authorities began evaluating Chinese owned companies which were listed in the United States on US-based exchanges for possible delisting. This sent the company's share price back down towards the levels it was at during the Chinese crackdown. As no material changes to its structure or its growth prospects took place over the course of this event, I continue to believe in the company's resiliency and that current valuations present a unique investment opportunity for folks who are patient and can wait through a lot of high-profile noise which is nearly certain to emerge as the world's two economic superpowers collide.Overall, there are certainly risks associated with this investment and any investment in a company which is under scrutiny and potential delisting, but for me - the reward is easily worth the risk at this point in time.Here are the reasons why.Revenue Growth Is SteadyAlibaba has so many revenue streams and programs that it would take several articles to go through them all, as their650 page 20-F(foreign company version of 10K) shows. But there are several revenue streams of theirs which I believe constitute an outsized portion of their growth prospects. Let's zero in.The first one is theircloud business. While cloud computing is continuing to replace a significant portion of the worlds standard IT infrastructure, the company is focused on not only maximizing their cloud business in the People's Republic of China but also looking at international markets, particularly in Eastern Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, to continue and grow this business. Getting in the door early in a lot of these other countries, before they fully become a developed nation status and garner outside investments, is key to maintaining a long term presence.The company also has another advantage, similar to Amazon (AMZN) in the United States - their cloud margins are so large that they use those profits to subsidize other expansion opportunities like their retail and commerce business expansion. Another plus is that since their margins are so large after all the infrastructure investment they put in, they have a much lower potential price point than other competitors in the Asia-Pacific region and can win cloud contracts which will aid their overall expansion efforts.The second part is the retail and commerce business. I realize that these 2 business segments amount to a majority of their revenues, but they also amount to the largest portion of their expansion potential. Allowing merchants in other Asia-Pacific region nations to seamlessly sell their products and run their small businesses across the region and the world is a huge plus and as these nations become more and more of economic powerhouses, the company is set to reap the benefits of these early investments.The company has been investing in deploying resources and building infrastructure in other regions across the world, as well as partnering with local tech and retail companies to provide their services. This, I believe, will be a big part of enabling their continued high-pace growth, even as they've begun to saturate in the People's Republic of China with their commerce platform.What It Means For 2030(ish)Alibaba Group, according toanalyst estimates aggregated by Seeking Alpha, is projected to report revenues which are higher by about 63% by 2028, rising from $134 billion, the projected figure for this upcoming year, to just shy of $218 billion.This represents a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 10.2% over the next 5 years when it comes to the company's revenues. Translating that to earnings shows how the company's investment are going to pay off, while they continue to work on expanding their per-user revenues which drives profits.Over the same time period, the company is projected to report a 94% bump in EPS, rising from a projected $7.34 in the upcoming fiscal year to $14.29 in 2028. This represent a CAGR of 14.2% over the next 5 years.There are a few reasons for this, with the most important one being margin expansion.Margins Expected To IncreaseEven though the company has already admitted that their user base, comprised of over 1 billion monthly average users in the People's Republic of China, is relatively saturated - they're working on expanding the per-wallet revenue, which translated to higher profits as costs for those users are already accounted for in most scenarios across their commerce platforms.These are two of the main reasons I believe the company is set to outperform these expectations - I don't believe that analysts consensus, linked earlier, fully account for the company's international expansion efforts and that an increased revenue base may mean that short term margins will contract - the longer term margins are set to outperform as revenues increase and thus long term growth is set to outperform.This means that a company which is currently expected to report higher margins, as evident by the higher CAGR in earnings vs revenues, is expected to, I believe, report faster growing earnings per share figures starting 2 to 3 years from now due to their international expansion efforts. This means that they are highly likely to outperform the historical annual market performance of roughly 10%. There's also another benefit I believe other companies with higher debt loads are going to begin to face which Alibaba will not.Interest Expense ControlAs interest rates continue to rise all around the world, Alibaba is using their cash pile to control the increase of debt and refinance their existing debt to lower overall interest expense. Even though the company's overall debt payments and interest expense are almost negligible relative to their income, the focus on this now can potentially save them several billions of dollars a year over the next decade, which can be used to increase shareholder value and help them compete for new users in new international markets.After peaking in 2018 with the company paying $612 million a year in interest expense, they've seen a steady reduction every year since and now pay $504 million a year in interest expense.From 2020 to 2021, the company took on a nice new chunk of debt, rising from just shy of $17 billion to about $20.7 billion. Since then, it has remained relatively steady as they currently have about $20.6 billion in long term debt. They've refinanced some of that debt and worked to raise money in more friendly means to avoid the rising interest rate environment.As the company has a significant cash pile, I believe they can continue and work to reduce their debt pile to help with valuation, but given the low overall interest rate they pay, it's not as much of a priority, as long as it doesn't substantially increase.Valuation vs ExpectationsCurrently, the company is trading at about 7x to 12x forward earnings, depending on how far out you go. Given that I believe that international expansion may keep margins at currently projected levels, I am opting to look at revenue multiples for the next 5 years to find an adequate valuation.Comparing the company to Amazon is the most obvious choice given the similarity of their business structures and segments. Amazon is currently trading at about 2.8x forward sales for the upcoming year and 1.5x forward sales for 2028 projected sales. The companies have more or less a similar revenue growth rate projection but Alibaba is trading at a significantly lower multiple.202320242025202620272028Alibaba+5.9%+13.6%+11.5%+10.7%+7.2%+8.4%1.8x1.6x1.4x1.3x1.2x1.1xAmazon+11.2%+15.4%+14.6%+12.3%+13.4%+12.7%2.8x2.4x2.1x1.9x1.7x1.5x(Source: Seeking Alpha Aggregate - Analyst Projections -BABA&AMZN)An easier way to look at it is the percentage of Alibaba's growth relative to Amazon's, which although it shows that certain years may be comparable, most are not and thus Alibaba, under current projections, should be trading higher.202320242025202620272028Growth52.7%88.3%78.8%89.0%53.7%66.1%Multiple64.3%66.7%66.7%68.4%70.6%73.3%Conclusion - Cheap & ValuableGiven that the aforementioned comparison to Amazon concludes that under their current projections, Alibaba is set to spend the upcoming year slightly overvalued relative to Amazon, it will spend the following 3 at a significantly lower one. This is before my expected outperformance when it comes to international expansion efforts alongside their margin expansion from working to increase their per-user revenue streams.The later out projections are still there, but that's where I expect Alibaba to do their best once their international margins expand towards their domestic ones. I believe that by 2028, the company will be outperforming their current revenue expectations by about 20% and current earnings per share expectations by about 15%, representing a potential 13% annual rise in revenues and 16% rise in EPS over the following 5 years of the company's growth plan.This, I believe, will easily outperform the broader market and offer investors a decent exposure to several fast growing markets in a region of the world which is becoming increasingly difficult to get without restrictions.This investment does not come without risks, especially of delisting, but other excellent Seeking Alpha contributors have dissected the prospects of delisting and I won't bore you with repeating them here for the 10th time.I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and have been and will continue to, add to my position over the course of the next few weeks if the share price remains where it is now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993794829,"gmtCreate":1660729442664,"gmtModify":1676536387910,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993794829","repostId":"2259007017","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2259007017","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660706834,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2259007017?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-17 11:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Could It Be A FAANG?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2259007017","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryArguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Arguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condition of exploring a new market.</li><li>And few companies have been as controversial as Palantir, which is supported by the observation that the company works with the CIA and US spec ops.</li><li>In a nutshell, Palantir builds and markets an infrastructure that allows to aggregate and analyze large amounts of unstructured data.</li><li>Reflecting on enterprise digitalization, the metaverse and a expansion of crypto, Palantir&#39;s market opportunity in 2030 could be $1 trillion.</li><li>In my opinion, Palantir is undervalued. My base-case target price is $22.4/share.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f6cfa718e8398417ea21d2c4e2d8712\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Few companies are as controversial as Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). Some investors believe this company is building the infrastructure for the future, while others believe Palantir&#39;s market potential is limited to government intelligence anddoes not really have a competitive advantage against competitors. Even more notable, the same investor could alternate between these two views. For example, Cathie Wood once believed in Palantir&#39;s potential and bought as much as 15 million shares. But since then, she has completely sold out her fund&#39;s holdings. What is going on? How should investors think about Palantir. This article should provide more clarity.</p><p>For reference, Palantir stock is down more than 70% from ATH. YTD, Palantir is down more than 46%, while over the same period, the S&amp;P 500 has lost only about 11%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9d1937b029ea7046d54454782db814\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>More About Palantir</b></p><p>Arguably a key reason why investors have difficulties building an investment thesis around Palantir is that many actually do not really understand what Palantir does. This is understandable given that the company works, amongst others, with the US Special Forces and the CIA on secret projects.</p><p>In a nutshell, and somehow simplified,Palantir builds and markets an infrastructure that allows to aggregate and analyze large amounts of unstructured data. Or in other words, Palantir builds an operating system for data management on which users can layer interfaces and visualizations. This allows users to derive value-adding insights and support intelligence-driven decision making. That said, customers use the company&#39;s software to optimize production processes, consumer insights and marketing efforts, capital management and risk oversight.</p><p>For example, in the past Palantir has supported: the government with the planning and execution of special war operations; banks with scenario analysis and risk management during the financial crisis; the structured distribution of COVID-19 vaccines around the world to fight the epidemic.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b330c63a70d472c9062a1c0c227863cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q2 2022 Presentation</span></p><p><b>Palantir&#39;s Opportunity</b></p><p>Palantir&#39;s market opportunity definitely has the potential to capture a potential that could indicate FAANG potential. In 2020, Palantir said that its addressable market is valued at around $120 billion.According to IDC, the market for data management/analytics and business intelligence (or in other words &#39;edge computing&#39;) is estimated at about $250 billion in 2024. And while I have no research to support this, I argue that on the backdrop of accelerating enterprise digitalization, the metaverse innovation and a continued expansion of crypto, Palantir&#39;s market opportunity could be valued at a $1 trillion potential in 2030 (this would indicate about 25% CAGR until 2030)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5059c99b7d668bc766ffa96f0681e120\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q2 2022 Presentation</span></p><p>Reflecting on Palantir&#39;s market opportunity,Alex Karp said:</p><blockquote><i>We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.</i></blockquote><blockquote><b><i>We see and intend to capture the whole.</i></b></blockquote><p><b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is currently valued at a one-year forward EV/Sales of x9.6 and a Price/Free Cash Flow of almost x75. Accordingly, it is fair to say that PLTR is trading expensively. But investors should consider the valuation in relation to the company&#39;s accelerating business expansion.</p><p>Personally, I believe that Palantir&#39;s business could grow at a 25% CAGR for the next 7 years. Accordingly, the company&#39;s sales could reach about $12 billion in 2030. If we consider a net-profit margin of 28%, which is in line with asset-light software firms, Palantir&#39;s net income for 2030 could be as high as $3.3 billion. I believe a x25 P/E multiple for 2030 could be reasonable and so I see a market capitalization of $82.5 billion. (Assuming Palantir&#39;s net-debt position does not change)</p><p>An analyst may discount the $82.5 billion with a reasonable rate, which I anchor on 8%, and find that Palantir should be valued at about $48 billion today, or about $22.4/share.</p><p>Risks</p><p>Investing in Palantir is a speculation, as there is considerable uncertainty related to projecting a company&#39;s fundamentals for multiple years into the future. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding Palantir&#39;s value proposition adds to the complexity. That said, there is no guarantee that the company will reach my estimated 2030 sales and profitability targets.</p><p>Investors should also consider that much of Palantir&#39;s current share price volatility is driven by investor sentiment towards stocks. Accordingly, investors should expect price volatility even though Palantir&#39;s business outlook remains unchanged.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Arguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condition of exploring a new market. Has Palantir the market and product potential to grow into a powerhouse that could rival the FAANGs? Personally, I do think so. Or as CEO Karp commented:</p><blockquote>We believe that our most significant growth is still yet to com</blockquote><p>I estimate that the market for data analytics and business intelligence could grow at a 25% CAGR until 2025 and accordingly I see significant upside for Palantir&#39;s business. If my analysis is correct, Palantir is undervalued. My base-case target price is $22.4/share.</p><p><i>What do you think, could Palantir be an equal to the FAANGs?</i></p><p>This article was written by Cavenagh Research. This document is for reference only.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Could It Be A FAANG?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Could It Be A FAANG?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534710-palantir-stock-could-it-be-a-faang><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryArguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condition of exploring a new market.And few companies have been as controversial as Palantir, which is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534710-palantir-stock-could-it-be-a-faang\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534710-palantir-stock-could-it-be-a-faang","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2259007017","content_text":"SummaryArguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condition of exploring a new market.And few companies have been as controversial as Palantir, which is supported by the observation that the company works with the CIA and US spec ops.In a nutshell, Palantir builds and markets an infrastructure that allows to aggregate and analyze large amounts of unstructured data.Reflecting on enterprise digitalization, the metaverse and a expansion of crypto, Palantir's market opportunity in 2030 could be $1 trillion.In my opinion, Palantir is undervalued. My base-case target price is $22.4/share.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThesisFew companies are as controversial as Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). Some investors believe this company is building the infrastructure for the future, while others believe Palantir's market potential is limited to government intelligence anddoes not really have a competitive advantage against competitors. Even more notable, the same investor could alternate between these two views. For example, Cathie Wood once believed in Palantir's potential and bought as much as 15 million shares. But since then, she has completely sold out her fund's holdings. What is going on? How should investors think about Palantir. This article should provide more clarity.For reference, Palantir stock is down more than 70% from ATH. YTD, Palantir is down more than 46%, while over the same period, the S&P 500 has lost only about 11%.Seeking AlphaMore About PalantirArguably a key reason why investors have difficulties building an investment thesis around Palantir is that many actually do not really understand what Palantir does. This is understandable given that the company works, amongst others, with the US Special Forces and the CIA on secret projects.In a nutshell, and somehow simplified,Palantir builds and markets an infrastructure that allows to aggregate and analyze large amounts of unstructured data. Or in other words, Palantir builds an operating system for data management on which users can layer interfaces and visualizations. This allows users to derive value-adding insights and support intelligence-driven decision making. That said, customers use the company's software to optimize production processes, consumer insights and marketing efforts, capital management and risk oversight.For example, in the past Palantir has supported: the government with the planning and execution of special war operations; banks with scenario analysis and risk management during the financial crisis; the structured distribution of COVID-19 vaccines around the world to fight the epidemic.Palantir Q2 2022 PresentationPalantir's OpportunityPalantir's market opportunity definitely has the potential to capture a potential that could indicate FAANG potential. In 2020, Palantir said that its addressable market is valued at around $120 billion.According to IDC, the market for data management/analytics and business intelligence (or in other words 'edge computing') is estimated at about $250 billion in 2024. And while I have no research to support this, I argue that on the backdrop of accelerating enterprise digitalization, the metaverse innovation and a continued expansion of crypto, Palantir's market opportunity could be valued at a $1 trillion potential in 2030 (this would indicate about 25% CAGR until 2030)Palantir Q2 2022 PresentationReflecting on Palantir's market opportunity,Alex Karp said:We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.We see and intend to capture the whole.Palantir ValuationPalantir is currently valued at a one-year forward EV/Sales of x9.6 and a Price/Free Cash Flow of almost x75. Accordingly, it is fair to say that PLTR is trading expensively. But investors should consider the valuation in relation to the company's accelerating business expansion.Personally, I believe that Palantir's business could grow at a 25% CAGR for the next 7 years. Accordingly, the company's sales could reach about $12 billion in 2030. If we consider a net-profit margin of 28%, which is in line with asset-light software firms, Palantir's net income for 2030 could be as high as $3.3 billion. I believe a x25 P/E multiple for 2030 could be reasonable and so I see a market capitalization of $82.5 billion. (Assuming Palantir's net-debt position does not change)An analyst may discount the $82.5 billion with a reasonable rate, which I anchor on 8%, and find that Palantir should be valued at about $48 billion today, or about $22.4/share.RisksInvesting in Palantir is a speculation, as there is considerable uncertainty related to projecting a company's fundamentals for multiple years into the future. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding Palantir's value proposition adds to the complexity. That said, there is no guarantee that the company will reach my estimated 2030 sales and profitability targets.Investors should also consider that much of Palantir's current share price volatility is driven by investor sentiment towards stocks. Accordingly, investors should expect price volatility even though Palantir's business outlook remains unchanged.ConclusionArguably all FAANG companies have been controversial in their early days. It is the pre-condition of exploring a new market. Has Palantir the market and product potential to grow into a powerhouse that could rival the FAANGs? Personally, I do think so. Or as CEO Karp commented:We believe that our most significant growth is still yet to comI estimate that the market for data analytics and business intelligence could grow at a 25% CAGR until 2025 and accordingly I see significant upside for Palantir's business. If my analysis is correct, Palantir is undervalued. My base-case target price is $22.4/share.What do you think, could Palantir be an equal to the FAANGs?This article was written by Cavenagh Research. This document is for reference only.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993794028,"gmtCreate":1660729416866,"gmtModify":1676536387901,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sea","listText":"Sea","text":"Sea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993794028","repostId":"1107258045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107258045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660716487,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107258045?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-17 14:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107258045","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.</li><li>When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business struggling already and the looming recession is adding another risk to the business.</li><li>It is difficult to determine an intrinsic value for Sea Limited, but the stock could be undervalued right now and might be a speculative bet.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a963b30c4a818dfcf6148d33a7d6eaae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>bunhill</span></p><p>My last article about Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was published in February 2022 when the stock was trading around $140, and I rated the stock as a hold. Since then, the stock declined more than 35% (and was trading even lower inthe meantime) and as Sea Limited was already declining before my last article it is now trading about 75% below its all-time high the stock reached in the fall of 2021.</p><p>The quarterly earnings results are a good opportunity to take a closer look at Sea Limited again and ask the question if the stock is now cheap enough and a good investment. We start by looking at the quarterly results.</p><p><b>Quarterly Results</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Sea Limited reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while the company could slightly beat earnings per share estimates, it slightly missed revenue expectations. When turning away from analysts’ estimates and look at the hard numbers we can see sales increasing 29.0% year-over-year from $2,281 million in the same quarter last year to $2,943 million this quarter. The rather negative point of view might be growth slowing down over the last few quarters as revenue growth was 64% one quarter ago and 106% two quarters earlier. However, we must keep the macro-economic environment in mind and several other technology companies have troubles growing at all these days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36a47b7e0494c88aec4f60add1163b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>When looking at the three different segments we see extremely mixed results. Revenue for “Digital Entertainment” declined from $1,024 million in the same quarter last year to $900 million this quarter – resulting in 12.1% year-over-year decline. And “sales of goods” could increase revenue from $257 million in Q2/21 to $287 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 11.7% YoY growth. The biggest part of growth (in absolute and relative numbers) stemmed from “E-commerce and other services” which could grow 75.6% year-over-year from $1,000 million in Q2/21 to $1,756 million in Q2/22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4e50c54d34ff1ca86adbe13b84de2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>While Sea Limited is still able to grow its top line with a solid pace, the increasing costs have a huge negative impact on the operating income (or rather: operating loss) as well as the bottom line. Expenses for sales and marketing were more or less the same (compared to the same quarter last year) but costs of revenue increased with a higher pace than revenue. And especially general &amp; administrative expenses (+96% YoY) as well as research and development expenses (+115% YoY) increased quite a lot.</p><p>As a result, operating loss increased from a loss of $334 million in the same quarter last year to $837 million this quarter and net losses per share increased from $0.61 in Q2/21 to $1.03 in Q2/22.</p><p>And finally, Sea Limited also suspended its e-commerce guidance and although there seems to be a logical explanation, I would see this move as a rather bad sign. In its earnings release, the company is stating:</p><blockquote>In our efforts to adapt to increasing macro uncertainties, we are proactively shifting our strategies to further focus on efficiency and optimization for the long-term strength and profitability of the e-commerce business. Given this strategic shift, we will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022.</blockquote><p><b>Light and Shadow</b></p><p>When looking at the e-commerce segment we see solid growth rates for Sea Limited. Year-over-year the number of gross orders increased 42% to 2.0 billion and gross merchandise volume also increased in the same timeframe, but only 27%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04efc4f6c6fdc4547ec2d87affe5352a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>Aside from e-commerce, digital financial services are also growing. Quarterly active users are growing 53% year-over-year to 52.7 million and the total payment volume for mobile wallet was increasing 36% year-over-year to $5.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798fa51a2c7f971c127efeeb28e5595d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>In both cases we are seeing solid growth rates, but the number of orders and quarterly active users is growing with a higher pace than gross merchandise/payment volume and this could be interpreted as small warning sign. Active customers are obviously spending less money. This could have several different reasons but could be a first hint for the economy slowing down.</p><p>And when looking at digital entertainment, the picture is becoming murkier. While digital entertainment certainly has a large global user base, we cannot ignore the negative trends over the last few quarters. Not only are quarterly active users declining from 725.2 million one year ago to 619.3 million right now (15% YoY decline), but quarterly paying users declined even 39% YoY from 92.2 million in Q2/21 to 56.1 million in Q2/22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ec45c6f2c60c8479c296ae35bef6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>Sea Limited is explaining the decrease in revenue due to the softening of bookings post-COVID. However, the increase of quarterly paying users between Q2/20 and Q2/21 was almost completely erased. Quarterly paying users increased only with a CAGR of 6% in the last two years – from 49.9 million in Q2/20 to 56.1 million in Q2/22. And so far, digital entertainment is the only segment for Sea Limited which is profitable and with sales and operating income declining this is especially problematic as Sea Limited is using the cash to fund its other business segments.</p><p><b>Recession as Headwind</b></p><p>The looming recession was mentioned countless times in the last few months (by many analysts and contributors including myself). We are seeing growth rates slowing down for many businesses – recently I wrote about Meta Platforms (META) which had to report declining revenue for the first time ever – and Sea Limited is no exception (as we already saw above). And if the recession will hit the world, growth rates might slow down even more. Sea Limited is depending on entertainment, games as well as retail/e-commerce. And these are all segments that are usually affected by a recession. People usually purchase less goods in case of a recession as the disposable income will decline. Rising interest rates will also force people to choose more wisely where to spend money. And spendings for games as well as entertainment are probably not considered essential by most people and might be among the first victims when expenses must be cut.</p><p>Of course, Sea Limited is very active in the Southeast Asia region and while I am pretty sure the United States and many European countries will be in a recession in 2023, I don’t know enough about that region to make reasonable predictions. I am just assuming the next recession being a global and brutal one and therefore affecting most countries and companies around the world.</p><p><b>Problems: Lacking Profitability and Dilution</b></p><p>One problem I see with investing in Sea Limited right now is the lacking profitability of the business. I know Sea Limited is still a rather young company (founded 13 years ago) and it is not untypical for young companies to be not profitable yet – especially if management is still focused on growing with a high pace and sacrificing profitability for high revenue growth. And it seems to be working as Sea Limited is still growing with an extremely high pace compared to other competitors. And the balance sheet (we will get to this) is allowing Sea Limited to be not profitable yet and focus on growth while still burning cash for a few more years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed9e10e9d9d00e449ddc1b7e0df9db5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts</span></p><p>Sea Limited is also increasing the number of outstanding shares constantly – another aspect I don’t like to see as potential investors. I don’t want to see my stake in the company diluted over time. Nevertheless, Sea Limited is increasing the number of outstanding shares with a high pace in the last few quarters, and we must assume the business will continue to do so in the quarters to come.</p><p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p><p>Sea Limited is continuing to dilute is shares, which is not a good sign for investors as it is lowering the profit for each investor when the number of outstanding shares is continuously increasing. However, it is good to know that Sea Limited doesn’t have to issue additional shares to raise capital as the balance sheet is solid (when management is continuing to dilute it is happening for different reasons).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b9f1c402d80e51be966f2ec26fc672\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>In the last few quarters, cash and cash equivalents as well as short-term investments declined from $11.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 to about $7.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, on June 30, 2022, the company still had $6,493 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1,288 million in short-term investments on its balance sheet and no short- or long-term debt. And as Sea Limited will probably not be profitable in the next few quarters (and most likely not generate free cash flow) it is good to know that the business won’t have to rely on additional cash.</p><p><b>Intrinsic Value Calculation</b></p><p>Sea Limited is still not profitable, which is making it rather difficult to look at simple valuation metrics – with free cash flow as well as earnings per share being negative in the last four quarters, we can’t neither calculate a P/FCF ratio nor a P/E ratio. Instead, we can look at the price-sales ratio and since my last article in February 2022, the price-sales ratio continued to decline further. Right now, Sea Limited is trading for 4.4 times sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14542e22f7c95a056cfb343d98340c5c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE PS Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>And it might be helpful to offer some perspective to interpret that price-sales ratio. Of the four companies presented above, Sea Limited has the highest price-sales ratio, but aside from Alibaba (BABA), which is trading for only 1.9 times sales, the other three companies have almost similar P/S ratios. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) is trading for 4.3 times sales and Meta Platforms is trading for 4.2 times sales.</p><p>And these three companies – Alibaba, Tencent and Meta Platforms – are all stocks I consider undervalued right now. The fact, that two of them are trading for a similar P/S ratio as Sea Limited although Sea Limited can grow at a much higher pace might imply that Sea Limited is rather cheap right now.</p><p>Of course, Sea Limited must become profitable in a similar way as these businesses to make P/S ratios comparable. And so far, Sea Limited is struggling to be profitable, but as we are talking about similar business models, I think Sea Limited can become profitable in a similar way. The company is trying to grow with a high pace and take market shares – like most of these technology companies did in the early days.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Following earnings, Sea Limited seems to be taking a big hit and the stock declined almost 14% on Tuesday as investors are obviously not satisfied with the news. And at $75 the stock might be worth a shot, and I would describe myself as slightly bullish. Ray Dalio and his hedge fund Bridgewater also invested recently in Sea Limited (and sold the stakes in the Chinese companies Alibaba and JD.com (JD)).</p><p>Although Sea Limited might be undervalued at this point, we should not ignore that a bear market and recession is most likely still upon us. I expect the next few years to be rather challenging for stocks and when the recession will hit the economy earnings per share will decline and many stocks will go much lower. Despite an already 75% decline for Sea Limited, the stock could go lower. When remembering the Dotcom bubble and stocks declining 90% or 95%, we get a feeling how low technology stocks could go.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 14:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107258045","content_text":"SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business struggling already and the looming recession is adding another risk to the business.It is difficult to determine an intrinsic value for Sea Limited, but the stock could be undervalued right now and might be a speculative bet.bunhillMy last article about Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was published in February 2022 when the stock was trading around $140, and I rated the stock as a hold. Since then, the stock declined more than 35% (and was trading even lower inthe meantime) and as Sea Limited was already declining before my last article it is now trading about 75% below its all-time high the stock reached in the fall of 2021.The quarterly earnings results are a good opportunity to take a closer look at Sea Limited again and ask the question if the stock is now cheap enough and a good investment. We start by looking at the quarterly results.Quarterly ResultsOn Tuesday, Sea Limited reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while the company could slightly beat earnings per share estimates, it slightly missed revenue expectations. When turning away from analysts’ estimates and look at the hard numbers we can see sales increasing 29.0% year-over-year from $2,281 million in the same quarter last year to $2,943 million this quarter. The rather negative point of view might be growth slowing down over the last few quarters as revenue growth was 64% one quarter ago and 106% two quarters earlier. However, we must keep the macro-economic environment in mind and several other technology companies have troubles growing at all these days.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationWhen looking at the three different segments we see extremely mixed results. Revenue for “Digital Entertainment” declined from $1,024 million in the same quarter last year to $900 million this quarter – resulting in 12.1% year-over-year decline. And “sales of goods” could increase revenue from $257 million in Q2/21 to $287 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 11.7% YoY growth. The biggest part of growth (in absolute and relative numbers) stemmed from “E-commerce and other services” which could grow 75.6% year-over-year from $1,000 million in Q2/21 to $1,756 million in Q2/22.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationWhile Sea Limited is still able to grow its top line with a solid pace, the increasing costs have a huge negative impact on the operating income (or rather: operating loss) as well as the bottom line. Expenses for sales and marketing were more or less the same (compared to the same quarter last year) but costs of revenue increased with a higher pace than revenue. And especially general & administrative expenses (+96% YoY) as well as research and development expenses (+115% YoY) increased quite a lot.As a result, operating loss increased from a loss of $334 million in the same quarter last year to $837 million this quarter and net losses per share increased from $0.61 in Q2/21 to $1.03 in Q2/22.And finally, Sea Limited also suspended its e-commerce guidance and although there seems to be a logical explanation, I would see this move as a rather bad sign. In its earnings release, the company is stating:In our efforts to adapt to increasing macro uncertainties, we are proactively shifting our strategies to further focus on efficiency and optimization for the long-term strength and profitability of the e-commerce business. Given this strategic shift, we will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022.Light and ShadowWhen looking at the e-commerce segment we see solid growth rates for Sea Limited. Year-over-year the number of gross orders increased 42% to 2.0 billion and gross merchandise volume also increased in the same timeframe, but only 27%.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationAside from e-commerce, digital financial services are also growing. Quarterly active users are growing 53% year-over-year to 52.7 million and the total payment volume for mobile wallet was increasing 36% year-over-year to $5.7 billion.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationIn both cases we are seeing solid growth rates, but the number of orders and quarterly active users is growing with a higher pace than gross merchandise/payment volume and this could be interpreted as small warning sign. Active customers are obviously spending less money. This could have several different reasons but could be a first hint for the economy slowing down.And when looking at digital entertainment, the picture is becoming murkier. While digital entertainment certainly has a large global user base, we cannot ignore the negative trends over the last few quarters. Not only are quarterly active users declining from 725.2 million one year ago to 619.3 million right now (15% YoY decline), but quarterly paying users declined even 39% YoY from 92.2 million in Q2/21 to 56.1 million in Q2/22.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationSea Limited is explaining the decrease in revenue due to the softening of bookings post-COVID. However, the increase of quarterly paying users between Q2/20 and Q2/21 was almost completely erased. Quarterly paying users increased only with a CAGR of 6% in the last two years – from 49.9 million in Q2/20 to 56.1 million in Q2/22. And so far, digital entertainment is the only segment for Sea Limited which is profitable and with sales and operating income declining this is especially problematic as Sea Limited is using the cash to fund its other business segments.Recession as HeadwindThe looming recession was mentioned countless times in the last few months (by many analysts and contributors including myself). We are seeing growth rates slowing down for many businesses – recently I wrote about Meta Platforms (META) which had to report declining revenue for the first time ever – and Sea Limited is no exception (as we already saw above). And if the recession will hit the world, growth rates might slow down even more. Sea Limited is depending on entertainment, games as well as retail/e-commerce. And these are all segments that are usually affected by a recession. People usually purchase less goods in case of a recession as the disposable income will decline. Rising interest rates will also force people to choose more wisely where to spend money. And spendings for games as well as entertainment are probably not considered essential by most people and might be among the first victims when expenses must be cut.Of course, Sea Limited is very active in the Southeast Asia region and while I am pretty sure the United States and many European countries will be in a recession in 2023, I don’t know enough about that region to make reasonable predictions. I am just assuming the next recession being a global and brutal one and therefore affecting most countries and companies around the world.Problems: Lacking Profitability and DilutionOne problem I see with investing in Sea Limited right now is the lacking profitability of the business. I know Sea Limited is still a rather young company (founded 13 years ago) and it is not untypical for young companies to be not profitable yet – especially if management is still focused on growing with a high pace and sacrificing profitability for high revenue growth. And it seems to be working as Sea Limited is still growing with an extremely high pace compared to other competitors. And the balance sheet (we will get to this) is allowing Sea Limited to be not profitable yet and focus on growth while still burning cash for a few more years.SE Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YChartsSea Limited is also increasing the number of outstanding shares constantly – another aspect I don’t like to see as potential investors. I don’t want to see my stake in the company diluted over time. Nevertheless, Sea Limited is increasing the number of outstanding shares with a high pace in the last few quarters, and we must assume the business will continue to do so in the quarters to come.Balance SheetSea Limited is continuing to dilute is shares, which is not a good sign for investors as it is lowering the profit for each investor when the number of outstanding shares is continuously increasing. However, it is good to know that Sea Limited doesn’t have to issue additional shares to raise capital as the balance sheet is solid (when management is continuing to dilute it is happening for different reasons).Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationIn the last few quarters, cash and cash equivalents as well as short-term investments declined from $11.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 to about $7.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, on June 30, 2022, the company still had $6,493 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1,288 million in short-term investments on its balance sheet and no short- or long-term debt. And as Sea Limited will probably not be profitable in the next few quarters (and most likely not generate free cash flow) it is good to know that the business won’t have to rely on additional cash.Intrinsic Value CalculationSea Limited is still not profitable, which is making it rather difficult to look at simple valuation metrics – with free cash flow as well as earnings per share being negative in the last four quarters, we can’t neither calculate a P/FCF ratio nor a P/E ratio. Instead, we can look at the price-sales ratio and since my last article in February 2022, the price-sales ratio continued to decline further. Right now, Sea Limited is trading for 4.4 times sales.SE PS Ratio data by YChartsAnd it might be helpful to offer some perspective to interpret that price-sales ratio. Of the four companies presented above, Sea Limited has the highest price-sales ratio, but aside from Alibaba (BABA), which is trading for only 1.9 times sales, the other three companies have almost similar P/S ratios. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) is trading for 4.3 times sales and Meta Platforms is trading for 4.2 times sales.And these three companies – Alibaba, Tencent and Meta Platforms – are all stocks I consider undervalued right now. The fact, that two of them are trading for a similar P/S ratio as Sea Limited although Sea Limited can grow at a much higher pace might imply that Sea Limited is rather cheap right now.Of course, Sea Limited must become profitable in a similar way as these businesses to make P/S ratios comparable. And so far, Sea Limited is struggling to be profitable, but as we are talking about similar business models, I think Sea Limited can become profitable in a similar way. The company is trying to grow with a high pace and take market shares – like most of these technology companies did in the early days.ConclusionFollowing earnings, Sea Limited seems to be taking a big hit and the stock declined almost 14% on Tuesday as investors are obviously not satisfied with the news. And at $75 the stock might be worth a shot, and I would describe myself as slightly bullish. Ray Dalio and his hedge fund Bridgewater also invested recently in Sea Limited (and sold the stakes in the Chinese companies Alibaba and JD.com (JD)).Although Sea Limited might be undervalued at this point, we should not ignore that a bear market and recession is most likely still upon us. I expect the next few years to be rather challenging for stocks and when the recession will hit the economy earnings per share will decline and many stocks will go much lower. Despite an already 75% decline for Sea Limited, the stock could go lower. When remembering the Dotcom bubble and stocks declining 90% or 95%, we get a feeling how low technology stocks could go.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907527771,"gmtCreate":1660223085995,"gmtModify":1703481578993,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9907527771","repostId":"1108398706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108398706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660216220,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108398706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-11 19:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Best to Stay on the Sidelines for Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108398706","media":"TipRanks","summary":"The week got off to a bad start for Palantir (PLTR)investors; Shares hit the down button in Monday’s","content":"<div>\n<p>The week got off to a bad start for Palantir (PLTR)investors; Shares hit the down button in Monday’s trading after the big data specialist delivered a disappointing Q2 report.It wasn’t all bad, though...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/palantir-best-to-stay-on-the-sidelines-for-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Best to Stay on the Sidelines for Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Best to Stay on the Sidelines for Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-11 19:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/palantir-best-to-stay-on-the-sidelines-for-now/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The week got off to a bad start for Palantir (PLTR)investors; Shares hit the down button in Monday’s trading after the big data specialist delivered a disappointing Q2 report.It wasn’t all bad, though...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/palantir-best-to-stay-on-the-sidelines-for-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/palantir-best-to-stay-on-the-sidelines-for-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108398706","content_text":"The week got off to a bad start for Palantir (PLTR)investors; Shares hit the down button in Monday’s trading after the big data specialist delivered a disappointing Q2 report.It wasn’t all bad, though. In the second quarter, Palantir generated revenue of $473.0 million, amounting to a 26% year-over-year increase and beating the Street’s $471.3 million forecast. The beat driven by a strong showing from the commercial segment where revenue increased by 46%. The commercial customer count rose by 250% from the same period last year – from 34 customers to 119. The company has been heavily reliant on government work so these are promising developments.However, other metrics weren’t quite as pleasing. The company delivered adj. EPS of -$0.01, falling short of the $0.03 anticipated on Wall Street.And the outlook missed expectations too; for Q3, revenue is expected to come in between $474 million to $475 million, some distance below the consensus estimate of $505.56 million. Revenue for the full-year is expected be in the range between $1.9 billion and $1.902 billion. Wall Street was looking for $1.98 billion.Tuning into the earnings call, Monness analyst Brian White noted the downbeat mood.“The tone of the call was muted with Palantir frustrated with the push out of large U.S. government programs and the negative impact this delay is expected to have on the company’s financial performance in the second half of the year,” the 5-star analyst said. “In our view, Palantir is well positioned to benefit from strong secular trends around digital transformation, Big Data, the cloud, and artificial intelligence; however, the economy appears to be in a recession, equity markets are in turmoil, and the geopolitical landscape is unpredictable.”Accordingly, White remains on the sidelines with a Neutral rating and no fixed price target in mind.Most analysts agree with White’s stance; the stock garners 3 Buys and Sells, each, but with 6 Holds, the consensus view is that this name is a Hold. However, going by the $10.75 average price target, shares have room for 12% upside in the year ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908752236,"gmtCreate":1659445936027,"gmtModify":1705980415256,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908752236","repostId":"1188690484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188690484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659454673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188690484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188690484","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17.</li><li>The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.</li><li>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>I am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett&#39;s key maxims:</p><blockquote>Be greedy when others are fearful.</blockquote><p>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.</p><p>Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.</p><p><b>A Best-In-Class Company</b></p><p>Alibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).</p><p>Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world&#39;s biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.</p><p>Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China&#39;s cloud market with about37% market share. China&#39;s cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party&#39;s5-year development plan.</p><p><b>Bullish Financials</b></p><p>In the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.</p><p>Alibaba&#39;sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company&#39;s market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba&#39;s business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.</p><p>Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.</p><p><b>The Buying Opportunity</b></p><p>Despite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01e6eab7204bcc90b5af9aa0d87ac85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Alibaba is a quality company, and the stock&#39;s undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?</p><p>I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba&#39;s extremely depressed valuation - now the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.</p><p>Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba&#39;s headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.</p><p>In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.</p><p>Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3c940aeeed4780c87b1ca71bdb180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Residual Earnings Valuation</b></p><p>Let us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:</p><ul><li>To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal &#39;till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.</li><li>To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock&#39;s beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company&#39;s idiosyncratic market risk.</li><li>To derive Baidu&#39;s tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.</li><li>For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba&#39;s high-potential initiatives</li><li>I do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.</li></ul><p>Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7cb860aca7fa48ef2afe7e265d3effa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p>I understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba&#39;s required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ba3323a1f09e75477921298d84cbf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p><b>Investment Risks</b></p><p>Investors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:</p><p>First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba&#39;s short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.</p><p>Secondly, China&#39;s internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.</p><p>Third, much of BABA&#39;s share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company&#39;s business fundamentals remain unchanged.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Alibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba&#39;s sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188690484","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model.ThesisI am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett's key maxims:Be greedy when others are fearful.Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.A Best-In-Class CompanyAlibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world's biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China's cloud market with about37% market share. China's cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party's5-year development plan.Bullish FinancialsIn the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.Alibaba'sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company's market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba's business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.The Buying OpportunityDespite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.Seeking AlphaAlibaba is a quality company, and the stock's undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba's extremely depressed valuation - now the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba's headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.Seeking AlphaResidual Earnings ValuationLet us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal 'till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock's beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company's idiosyncratic market risk.To derive Baidu's tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba's high-potential initiativesI do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationI understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba's required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationInvestment RisksInvestors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba's short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.Secondly, China's internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.Third, much of BABA's share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company's business fundamentals remain unchanged.ConclusionAlibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba's sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9931071435,"gmtCreate":1662371595627,"gmtModify":1676537047528,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931071435","repostId":"1198620014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198620014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662364882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198620014?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198620014","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and wi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We share data on 50 high-growth &#34;pandemic darlings&#34; that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.</li><li>We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including TAM, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share-based compensation, dilution, and industrywide challenges).</li><li>We also dive deep into the very ugly macroeconomic reasons to stay bearish on the market (things can still get much worse) and on Palantir, especially in the near term.</li><li>After reviewing three high-growth stocks in total from the list, we conclude with some important takeaways and our strong opinion about investing in Palantir and in the current market environment.</li></ul><p>After the initial pandemic shock in 2020, certain high-growth stocks performed well. Extremely well. Bolstered by extraordinarily low interest rates and a new crowd of &#34;work-from-homers&#34; (with newfound time to &#34;invest&#34;) it seemed the sky was the limit. Until it wasn&#39;t. Flash forward to now, the markethas fallen sharply this year (especially high-growth stocks), and there is no short supply of reasons to stay bearish. Very bearish. In this report, we share data on 50 high-growth stocks that have crashed, run through a list of compelling reasons (data points) to stay bearish, and then discuss the merits of three interesting high-growth stocks from the list that have crashed particularly hard, with a special focus on pandemic darling, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), including its positive and negatives (such as total addressable market, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share based compensation, dilution and industrywide challenges). We conclude with some important takeaways and our very strong opinion about investing in Palantir and investing in this market in general.</p><p><b>50 High-Growth Pandemic Darlings That Crashed</b></p><p>For starters, here is a look at 50 high-growth &#34;pandemic darling&#34; stocks (concentrated in software industries) that have crashed hard this year. The table is sorted by market cap, and you likely see at least a few that you are very familiar with.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d66a68a501ea4023d237754fb86cded1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Stock Rover</p><p>A lot of conservative value-oriented investors take a lot of satisfaction seeing the sharp declines this year. They warned (often loudly) that valuations were absurdly high considering many of these pandemic darlings have never even generated a profit. What&#39;s more, there are a lot of very compelling reasons to stay bearish on these stocks (such as high inflation, rising interest rates, lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a war in Europe and indications that corporate profit estimates are still too high based on the federal budget deficit) as we will cover in more detail in a later section of this report. But first, let&#39;s take a look at one of the most hyped stocks in recent history, that rose dramatically during the pandemic, and has now fallen very hard, Palantir.</p><p><b>Palantir: Pandemic Stock Poster Child</b></p><p>Palantir is basically a data-mining software company that has strangely generated a cult-like internet following since its September 2020 IPO (despite the fact that it has existed since 2003). Perhaps it&#39;s the company&#39;s secret government contracts that had so many investors mystified, or its expansion into the non-government Software-as-Service business at exactly the time when those stocks were being most hyped (because artificially low interest rates by the Fed dramatically magnified the present value of &#34;possible&#34; future earnings for those types of stocks) or maybe even its unusual name (it&#39;s named after a mystical, all-powerful seeing stone in &#34;Lord of the Rings&#34;). Whatever the case may be, Palantir shares soared to very high valuations (for example, see how its current price-to-sales multiple compares to its 5-year (technically 2-year) range in our earlier table above).</p><p><b>Palantir Positives:</b></p><p>Before getting into the very negative things working against Palantir in the next sections of this report (both company-specific and macroeconomic) let&#39;s first consider a few of the good things the company has going for it.</p><p><b>Three things to look for in a growth stock</b>: For starters, three big things many long-term growth investors look for in a stock are a founder CEO (check: CEO Alex Karp cofounded Palantir), a very high revenue growth rate (check: the 3-year revenue CAGR is 41%, and it is expected to keep growing rapidly, per our earlier table) and a very large Total Addressable Market (check: see the &#34;TAM&#34; graphic below from Palantir&#39;s latest investorpresentation).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb72b760e9432fd752a4ea9aa354c7f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Investor Presentation</p><p><b>Large TAM</b>: Specifically, as you can see in the chart above, each of Palantir&#39;s major businesses have continued to grow rapidly over time and continue to have large growth potential (dotted line). For reference:</p><ul><li><p><b>Palantir Gotham</b> is a software platform that enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform.</p></li><li><p><b>Palantir Foundry</b> is a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.</p></li><li><p><b>Apollo</b> is a software that enables customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.</p></li></ul><p>And according to CEO Alex Karp during the latest earnings call:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We have 5 of the most interesting, important and crazy baller, impactful products in the world: PG, Foundry, Nexus Peering, MetaConstellation and Apollo, all of which were built before their time, all of which have made a 41% CAGR possible.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>More specifically, in his latest letter to shareholders, Karp explained:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Our platforms consist of more than 700 component parts and 65 separate applications...Each one of those component parts has the potential to become a dominant and standalone software product in its own right.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Further, Karp had this to say about TAM:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.&#34;</i></blockquote><p><b>Founder CEO</b>: Further, Karp is a strong leader constantly building the brand by highlighting the strengths of the products (for example, on the call he explained &#34;their quintessential attribute that large companies, which essentially control distribution, cannot easily copy them or if at all&#34;), and the long-term anti Wall Street approach to the business (for example, Karp says &#34;we run this company as owners, and we do not run it purely to actually make people happy quarter-to-quarter.&#34;).</p><p><b>Client Growth</b>: In addition to high revenue growth, Palantir continues to grow its clients (which have a very high retention rate - Palantir ended Q2 2022 with net dollar retention rate of 119% - high retention is often typical for the very attractive SaaS business model)</p><p><b>High Margins and Strong Innovation</b>: Palantir has very high gross margins (see our earlier table), and strong innovation (as per its high research margin and strong expansion into non-government clients).</p><p><b>Improving Bottom Line</b>: Like a lot of high-growth business, Palantir is not yet profitable. And while this may sound like a big negative (especially considering the company has been around for almost 20 years) it is actually by design. Specifically, Palantir continues to spend heavily to capture attractive revenue growth opportunities (the types of revenue growth opportunities other companies wish they had). Moreover, Palantir&#39;s losses are shrinking (it&#39;s moving towards profitability). Per the shareholder letter, Palantir is now strongly free cash flow positive, and per the quarterly call, Karp expects to be &#34;a profitable company in 2025.&#34;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7b9c1704c07ba21290335407af5a237\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Shareholder Letter</p><p>As unattractive as it is to some, Palantir&#39;s decision to focus on revenue growth over bottom line income (for now) is the right decision in terms of maximizing long-term shareholder value (whether or not you are the right type of shareholder - you probably already know - but we will address this topic in the conclusion of this report).</p><p><b>Increasingly Reasonable Valuation</b>: And of course, Palantir&#39;s valuation multiples are dramatically lower than they were (price-to-sales is now only 12.8% of what it was, per our earlier table) and relatively attractive as compared to peers and as compared to its high revenue growth and large TAM.</p><p>Despite the dramatic share price sell off (shares currently sit at only 4.9% of their 52-week price range), Palantir continues to have a lot of long-term attractive qualities.</p><p><b>Palantir Negatives:</b></p><p>Of course there are a lot of negative things (challenges) Palantir currently faces, including the negative company-specific things we will cover in this section, plus the massively daunting macroeconomic challenges we will cover in the next section.</p><p><b>Slowing Government Revenue Growth</b>: For example, Palantir&#39;sgovernment revenue(supposedly its &#34;bread and butter&#34;) is slowing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5632018f8ec8c51db94235eadcddb9d2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"693\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Palantir Investor Presentation</p><p>According to a research note from Brad Zelnick at Deutsche Bank (Zelnick rates Palantir a &#34;sell&#34;):</p><blockquote><i>&#34;While we&#39;ve always been more skeptical of Palantir&#39;s commercial opportunity, our thesis was rooted in what we saw as a uniquely strong position in Public Sector… Now with the Gov&#39;t business further decelerating off of easier compares and with diminished confidence/visibility ahead, we are left with very little to support our thesis.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Palantir lowered its forward guidance this quarter based on uncertainty around government contracts. This issue was addressed repeatedly during the call by explaining revenues are lumpy (there have actually been &#34;a number of years where [revenue] was flat or even negative&#34;), but worth it considering government contracts &#34;are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait,&#34; according to Karp.</p><p><b>Stock-Based Compensation and Shareholder Dilution</b>: Another chronic qualm with Palantir has been its heavy stock based compensation and shareholder dilution, as you can see in the chart below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a807f1f0923e919368c125782c78\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>However, in retrospect Palantir&#39;s actions appear prudent considering, as Karp puts it in the shareholder letter:</p><blockquote><i>&#34;We repeatedly decided to raise and preserve capital when others were spending.Our strategy in this regard has secured our ability to continue refining and developing our software platforms in order to maximize their value to our customers over the long term.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Specifically, Palantir was raising capital when its market value was higher (smart), has now eliminated all debt now that interest rates are higher (also smart) and now generates massive amounts of free cash flow and has ample cash on its balance sheet to support its business (at a time when raising external capital is now more expensive).</p><p><b>Negative Net Income</b>: We mentioned &#34;improving bottom line&#34; as a positive, net income is still negative (and expected to stay that way until 2025) and that is a big negative to a lot of investors, especially in the current market environment where interest rates are rising and investors put increasingly more value on current earnings and less value on future earnings. Even though profitability is trending in the right direction, Palantir still generates no net income.</p><p><b>Industrywide Challenges</b>: And another huge negative for Palantir is the current extreme challenges the overall industry (and economy) is facing (as we will cover in detail in the next section of this report). However, Palantir&#39;s Chief Business Affairs and Legal Officer explained it like this during the quarterly call:</p><blockquote><i>As organizations around the world face more pressure and experience more pain, there will be a slowdown in the rate of spending and lengthening of sales cycles, but it will also reveal gaps in enterprises operations. Gaps our software can solve.In the short term, this means less revenue now. But on longer time horizons, it accelerates our business.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>We&#39;ll share our strong opinion about investing in Palantir (in the current market environment) in the conclusion of this report, but first it is worthwhile to consider more of the macroeconomic environment which helps underpin our views.</p><p>Macroeconomic Reasons to Stay Bearish on Palantir (and the Market in General):</p><p>Like other companies, Palantir currently faces a variety of massive macroeconomic challenges that give a lot of investors reason to stay extremely bearish. For example, inflation is sky high (very bad for the economy), the Fed keeps raising rates to fight inflation (but this has the side effect of slowing the economy), there are lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a terrible war in Europe and economists remain very pessimistic (as you can see in the following chart).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c38c5b70e1a16947ad27cd31e466a1f\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Wall Street Journal</p><p>Further the federal budget deficit is about to create another big drag on the economy. If you don&#39;t know, the federal budget deficit is the difference between government revenues (i.e. taxes) and government spending. And while years of government deficit spending can create enormous long-term economic problems, the short-term deficit fluctuations can exacerbate near-term challenges.</p><p>Counterintuitive to some, when the economy is strong, the government should reduce spending (build a rainy-day fund), and when the economy is struggling, extra government spending can actually help end the funk. Unfortunately, the economy is struggling big time this year, yet the government has dramatically reduced deficit spending, as you can see in the following chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac674eb8a63a4c87f03f8285114e8e66\" tg-width=\"1162\" tg-height=\"747\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bipartisan Policy Center</p><p>And according to GMO Capital&#39;sJeremy Grantham, this reduced government deficit may be about to cause corporate profit margins and earnings to take a hit, due to the Kalecki equation(basically, reduced government deficit spending will be a hit to corporate earnings, and this is not yet reflected in stock prices).</p><p>And of course we can make a strong case that growth stocks in particular (such as Palantir and the other names in our earlier table) are still greatly overvalued (versus value stocks) based on historical levels, such as this chart(below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a845355734238edf4d60511f6a135796\" tg-width=\"1112\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Charles Schwab</p><p>Notice the divergence (in the chart above) becomes most pronounced around the time the US implemented and accelerated quantitative easing following the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the pandemic bubble (2020-2021), and right before the tech bubble bust (2000). Importantly, the Fed is now starting to unwind quantitative easing (increasing rates and reducing its balance sheet) which could have the opposite affect (i.e. growth could start to underperform value dramatically). And here is another chart on growth versus value, for your consideration.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97350b28cfa6f02b7ed3cbb8da022107\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"871\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>JP Morgan</p><p>Further, a slew of recent layoff announcements by technology companies (see table below) suggest growth stocks in particular are just now finally bracing for the challenging markets ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe29d0f62d8b6a744287ace5791248a\" tg-width=\"1098\" tg-height=\"1029\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Crunchbase</p><p><b>More Pandemic Darlings Worth Considering</b></p><p>With all of the negative things going on in the market, the thought of investing in growth stocks right now makes a lot of people want to puke. Even though Jeremy Grantham&#39;s latest report (linked earlier) suggests we are just now entering the final stage of the market&#39;s latest &#34;super bubble,&#34; the market has already been puking (particularly growth stocks) this year, and from a contrarian long-term investment standpoint - some investors believe that&#39;s the best time to be buying stocks in buckets. Let&#39;s take a closer look at a few high growth stocks in particular, before finally concluding this report with a few important takeaways and our strong opinion on investing in this market.</p><p><b>Datadog</b>(DDOG)</p><p>Datadog is a performance monitoring and cloud security platform, and the shares are more than 50% below their 52-week high as the valuation has taken an extreme hit as the pandemic bubble bursts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fdd261203344e781999772d71eece7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"922\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>However, Datadog continues to benefit from the three important growth stock characteristics we described earlier, including very high revenue growth (see chart above), a large TAM (so it can keep growing, see below) and the company is led by its founder (CEO Olivier Pomel cofounded the company along with CTO Alexis Lê-Quôc, in 2010).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606abe56c40452a715c442428bf21c8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>Also Datadog was named a leader in the 2022 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Application Performance Monitoring and Observability (see below). This is a very good thing for its continuing industry leadership.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c5f0f318e5e7fcf1c2c7a1d0f4d6a1a\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"787\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>Also, Datadog has high customer retention rates (also very good for continuing growth, see below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b79e91c50944b985847e9c5ce7a95f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datadog Investor Presentation</p><p>And again, its valuation has come way down over the last year (for example, both its price and price-to-sales ratios are significantly below their 52-week highs, as you can see in our earlier table), but its high revenue growth remains intact as it moves closer to GAAP profitability (all good things). We&#39;ll have more to say about Datadog in the conclusion of this report.</p><p><b>The Trade Desk</b>(TTD)</p><p>The Trade Desk is another high-growth stock that has recently sold off very hard (it&#39;s down more than 30% this year).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c8205e9996a50cd1b3614c8745ca8f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"975\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Trade Desk Investor Presentation</p><p>And like the other growth stocks we have highlighted in this report, it is an attractive founder-led business (Jeff Green is co-founder and current CEO), with very high revenue growth (see graphic above), and a very large TAM (see the graphic below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5835d0d241411e28f035d95c99c49e7d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Trade Desk Investor Presentation</p><p>If you don&#39;t know, The Trade Desk is basically a self-service omni-channel advertising platform that allows ad buyers to pick from over 500 billion digital ad opportunities a day (including targeted ads across connected TV, mobile, video, audio, display, social, and native). We recently wrote about The Trade Desk in detail last month (where we correctly predicted that it would resume its steep share price declines in the short term), and we&#39;ll have more to say about The Trade Desk in the conclusion of this report.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>The market is ugly. Very ugly. Aside from the sky-high valuation levels many top growth stocks achieved last year (a bubble that continues to burst), macroeconomic conditions are bad (as described in this report). And unless you are in a position to buy-and-hold for the next decade, it would probably be a terrible idea to dump 100% of your nest egg into high growth stocks as described in this report (you might instead want to consider our recent report: Top 10 Big-Dividend Preferred Stocks).</p><p>On the other hand, if you are a long-term investor, you have a distinct advantage. That is to say, long-term compound growth is one of the most powerful wealth-creating machines in the history of the world, but only if you have the ability to hang on (to high-growth secular leaders like Palantir, The Trade Desk and Datadog) through years of very high volatility (like we are experiencing now). In fact, this year&#39;s steep price declines may get even worse (for reasons described in this report), but if you truly are a long-term investor you might also want to consider our expanded list of 150 top growth stocks down big (which also includes a few more top growth stock ideas in particular) especially because we strongly believe the market will eventually get better.</p><p>No one knows where the market will be next week, next month or even next year. But over the long-term, it&#39;s likely eventually going much higher (especially top growth stocks, like Palantir). And over the long-term, top-quality dividends stocks are also likely to keep paying big, steady, growing dividends. Choose an investment strategy that is right for you, based on your unique situation and goals. We believe disciplined, long-term, goal-focused investing will continue to be a winner.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 50 Hated Pandemic Stocks, These 3 Worth Considering\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 16:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538851-palantir-50-hated-pandemic-stocks-3-worth-considering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198620014","content_text":"SummaryWe share data on 50 high-growth \"pandemic darlings\" that have sold off extremely hard, and with a special focus on Palantir.We go into the details on Palantir positives and negatives (including TAM, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share-based compensation, dilution, and industrywide challenges).We also dive deep into the very ugly macroeconomic reasons to stay bearish on the market (things can still get much worse) and on Palantir, especially in the near term.After reviewing three high-growth stocks in total from the list, we conclude with some important takeaways and our strong opinion about investing in Palantir and in the current market environment.After the initial pandemic shock in 2020, certain high-growth stocks performed well. Extremely well. Bolstered by extraordinarily low interest rates and a new crowd of \"work-from-homers\" (with newfound time to \"invest\") it seemed the sky was the limit. Until it wasn't. Flash forward to now, the markethas fallen sharply this year (especially high-growth stocks), and there is no short supply of reasons to stay bearish. Very bearish. In this report, we share data on 50 high-growth stocks that have crashed, run through a list of compelling reasons (data points) to stay bearish, and then discuss the merits of three interesting high-growth stocks from the list that have crashed particularly hard, with a special focus on pandemic darling, Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), including its positive and negatives (such as total addressable market, growth, leadership, products, margins, profits, valuation, government versus commercial, share based compensation, dilution and industrywide challenges). We conclude with some important takeaways and our very strong opinion about investing in Palantir and investing in this market in general.50 High-Growth Pandemic Darlings That CrashedFor starters, here is a look at 50 high-growth \"pandemic darling\" stocks (concentrated in software industries) that have crashed hard this year. The table is sorted by market cap, and you likely see at least a few that you are very familiar with.Stock RoverA lot of conservative value-oriented investors take a lot of satisfaction seeing the sharp declines this year. They warned (often loudly) that valuations were absurdly high considering many of these pandemic darlings have never even generated a profit. What's more, there are a lot of very compelling reasons to stay bearish on these stocks (such as high inflation, rising interest rates, lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a war in Europe and indications that corporate profit estimates are still too high based on the federal budget deficit) as we will cover in more detail in a later section of this report. But first, let's take a look at one of the most hyped stocks in recent history, that rose dramatically during the pandemic, and has now fallen very hard, Palantir.Palantir: Pandemic Stock Poster ChildPalantir is basically a data-mining software company that has strangely generated a cult-like internet following since its September 2020 IPO (despite the fact that it has existed since 2003). Perhaps it's the company's secret government contracts that had so many investors mystified, or its expansion into the non-government Software-as-Service business at exactly the time when those stocks were being most hyped (because artificially low interest rates by the Fed dramatically magnified the present value of \"possible\" future earnings for those types of stocks) or maybe even its unusual name (it's named after a mystical, all-powerful seeing stone in \"Lord of the Rings\"). Whatever the case may be, Palantir shares soared to very high valuations (for example, see how its current price-to-sales multiple compares to its 5-year (technically 2-year) range in our earlier table above).Palantir Positives:Before getting into the very negative things working against Palantir in the next sections of this report (both company-specific and macroeconomic) let's first consider a few of the good things the company has going for it.Three things to look for in a growth stock: For starters, three big things many long-term growth investors look for in a stock are a founder CEO (check: CEO Alex Karp cofounded Palantir), a very high revenue growth rate (check: the 3-year revenue CAGR is 41%, and it is expected to keep growing rapidly, per our earlier table) and a very large Total Addressable Market (check: see the \"TAM\" graphic below from Palantir's latest investorpresentation).Palantir Investor PresentationLarge TAM: Specifically, as you can see in the chart above, each of Palantir's major businesses have continued to grow rapidly over time and continue to have large growth potential (dotted line). For reference:Palantir Gotham is a software platform that enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, as well as facilitates the handoff between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform.Palantir Foundry is a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.Apollo is a software that enables customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.And according to CEO Alex Karp during the latest earnings call:\"We have 5 of the most interesting, important and crazy baller, impactful products in the world: PG, Foundry, Nexus Peering, MetaConstellation and Apollo, all of which were built before their time, all of which have made a 41% CAGR possible.\"More specifically, in his latest letter to shareholders, Karp explained:\"Our platforms consist of more than 700 component parts and 65 separate applications...Each one of those component parts has the potential to become a dominant and standalone software product in its own right.\"Further, Karp had this to say about TAM:\"We are working towards a future where all large institutions in the United States and its allies abroad are running significant segments of their operations, if not their operations as a whole, on Palantir.Most other companies are targeting small segments of the market.\"Founder CEO: Further, Karp is a strong leader constantly building the brand by highlighting the strengths of the products (for example, on the call he explained \"their quintessential attribute that large companies, which essentially control distribution, cannot easily copy them or if at all\"), and the long-term anti Wall Street approach to the business (for example, Karp says \"we run this company as owners, and we do not run it purely to actually make people happy quarter-to-quarter.\").Client Growth: In addition to high revenue growth, Palantir continues to grow its clients (which have a very high retention rate - Palantir ended Q2 2022 with net dollar retention rate of 119% - high retention is often typical for the very attractive SaaS business model)High Margins and Strong Innovation: Palantir has very high gross margins (see our earlier table), and strong innovation (as per its high research margin and strong expansion into non-government clients).Improving Bottom Line: Like a lot of high-growth business, Palantir is not yet profitable. And while this may sound like a big negative (especially considering the company has been around for almost 20 years) it is actually by design. Specifically, Palantir continues to spend heavily to capture attractive revenue growth opportunities (the types of revenue growth opportunities other companies wish they had). Moreover, Palantir's losses are shrinking (it's moving towards profitability). Per the shareholder letter, Palantir is now strongly free cash flow positive, and per the quarterly call, Karp expects to be \"a profitable company in 2025.\"Palantir Shareholder LetterAs unattractive as it is to some, Palantir's decision to focus on revenue growth over bottom line income (for now) is the right decision in terms of maximizing long-term shareholder value (whether or not you are the right type of shareholder - you probably already know - but we will address this topic in the conclusion of this report).Increasingly Reasonable Valuation: And of course, Palantir's valuation multiples are dramatically lower than they were (price-to-sales is now only 12.8% of what it was, per our earlier table) and relatively attractive as compared to peers and as compared to its high revenue growth and large TAM.Despite the dramatic share price sell off (shares currently sit at only 4.9% of their 52-week price range), Palantir continues to have a lot of long-term attractive qualities.Palantir Negatives:Of course there are a lot of negative things (challenges) Palantir currently faces, including the negative company-specific things we will cover in this section, plus the massively daunting macroeconomic challenges we will cover in the next section.Slowing Government Revenue Growth: For example, Palantir'sgovernment revenue(supposedly its \"bread and butter\") is slowing.Palantir Investor PresentationAccording to a research note from Brad Zelnick at Deutsche Bank (Zelnick rates Palantir a \"sell\"):\"While we've always been more skeptical of Palantir's commercial opportunity, our thesis was rooted in what we saw as a uniquely strong position in Public Sector… Now with the Gov't business further decelerating off of easier compares and with diminished confidence/visibility ahead, we are left with very little to support our thesis.\"Palantir lowered its forward guidance this quarter based on uncertainty around government contracts. This issue was addressed repeatedly during the call by explaining revenues are lumpy (there have actually been \"a number of years where [revenue] was flat or even negative\"), but worth it considering government contracts \"are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait,\" according to Karp.Stock-Based Compensation and Shareholder Dilution: Another chronic qualm with Palantir has been its heavy stock based compensation and shareholder dilution, as you can see in the chart below.YChartsHowever, in retrospect Palantir's actions appear prudent considering, as Karp puts it in the shareholder letter:\"We repeatedly decided to raise and preserve capital when others were spending.Our strategy in this regard has secured our ability to continue refining and developing our software platforms in order to maximize their value to our customers over the long term.\"Specifically, Palantir was raising capital when its market value was higher (smart), has now eliminated all debt now that interest rates are higher (also smart) and now generates massive amounts of free cash flow and has ample cash on its balance sheet to support its business (at a time when raising external capital is now more expensive).Negative Net Income: We mentioned \"improving bottom line\" as a positive, net income is still negative (and expected to stay that way until 2025) and that is a big negative to a lot of investors, especially in the current market environment where interest rates are rising and investors put increasingly more value on current earnings and less value on future earnings. Even though profitability is trending in the right direction, Palantir still generates no net income.Industrywide Challenges: And another huge negative for Palantir is the current extreme challenges the overall industry (and economy) is facing (as we will cover in detail in the next section of this report). However, Palantir's Chief Business Affairs and Legal Officer explained it like this during the quarterly call:As organizations around the world face more pressure and experience more pain, there will be a slowdown in the rate of spending and lengthening of sales cycles, but it will also reveal gaps in enterprises operations. Gaps our software can solve.In the short term, this means less revenue now. But on longer time horizons, it accelerates our business.\"We'll share our strong opinion about investing in Palantir (in the current market environment) in the conclusion of this report, but first it is worthwhile to consider more of the macroeconomic environment which helps underpin our views.Macroeconomic Reasons to Stay Bearish on Palantir (and the Market in General):Like other companies, Palantir currently faces a variety of massive macroeconomic challenges that give a lot of investors reason to stay extremely bearish. For example, inflation is sky high (very bad for the economy), the Fed keeps raising rates to fight inflation (but this has the side effect of slowing the economy), there are lingering pandemic supply chain issues, a terrible war in Europe and economists remain very pessimistic (as you can see in the following chart).Wall Street JournalFurther the federal budget deficit is about to create another big drag on the economy. If you don't know, the federal budget deficit is the difference between government revenues (i.e. taxes) and government spending. And while years of government deficit spending can create enormous long-term economic problems, the short-term deficit fluctuations can exacerbate near-term challenges.Counterintuitive to some, when the economy is strong, the government should reduce spending (build a rainy-day fund), and when the economy is struggling, extra government spending can actually help end the funk. Unfortunately, the economy is struggling big time this year, yet the government has dramatically reduced deficit spending, as you can see in the following chart.Bipartisan Policy CenterAnd according to GMO Capital'sJeremy Grantham, this reduced government deficit may be about to cause corporate profit margins and earnings to take a hit, due to the Kalecki equation(basically, reduced government deficit spending will be a hit to corporate earnings, and this is not yet reflected in stock prices).And of course we can make a strong case that growth stocks in particular (such as Palantir and the other names in our earlier table) are still greatly overvalued (versus value stocks) based on historical levels, such as this chart(below).Charles SchwabNotice the divergence (in the chart above) becomes most pronounced around the time the US implemented and accelerated quantitative easing following the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the pandemic bubble (2020-2021), and right before the tech bubble bust (2000). Importantly, the Fed is now starting to unwind quantitative easing (increasing rates and reducing its balance sheet) which could have the opposite affect (i.e. growth could start to underperform value dramatically). And here is another chart on growth versus value, for your consideration.JP MorganFurther, a slew of recent layoff announcements by technology companies (see table below) suggest growth stocks in particular are just now finally bracing for the challenging markets ahead.CrunchbaseMore Pandemic Darlings Worth ConsideringWith all of the negative things going on in the market, the thought of investing in growth stocks right now makes a lot of people want to puke. Even though Jeremy Grantham's latest report (linked earlier) suggests we are just now entering the final stage of the market's latest \"super bubble,\" the market has already been puking (particularly growth stocks) this year, and from a contrarian long-term investment standpoint - some investors believe that's the best time to be buying stocks in buckets. Let's take a closer look at a few high growth stocks in particular, before finally concluding this report with a few important takeaways and our strong opinion on investing in this market.Datadog(DDOG)Datadog is a performance monitoring and cloud security platform, and the shares are more than 50% below their 52-week high as the valuation has taken an extreme hit as the pandemic bubble bursts.Datadog Investor PresentationHowever, Datadog continues to benefit from the three important growth stock characteristics we described earlier, including very high revenue growth (see chart above), a large TAM (so it can keep growing, see below) and the company is led by its founder (CEO Olivier Pomel cofounded the company along with CTO Alexis Lê-Quôc, in 2010).Datadog Investor PresentationAlso Datadog was named a leader in the 2022 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Application Performance Monitoring and Observability (see below). This is a very good thing for its continuing industry leadership.Datadog Investor PresentationAlso, Datadog has high customer retention rates (also very good for continuing growth, see below).Datadog Investor PresentationAnd again, its valuation has come way down over the last year (for example, both its price and price-to-sales ratios are significantly below their 52-week highs, as you can see in our earlier table), but its high revenue growth remains intact as it moves closer to GAAP profitability (all good things). We'll have more to say about Datadog in the conclusion of this report.The Trade Desk(TTD)The Trade Desk is another high-growth stock that has recently sold off very hard (it's down more than 30% this year).The Trade Desk Investor PresentationAnd like the other growth stocks we have highlighted in this report, it is an attractive founder-led business (Jeff Green is co-founder and current CEO), with very high revenue growth (see graphic above), and a very large TAM (see the graphic below).The Trade Desk Investor PresentationIf you don't know, The Trade Desk is basically a self-service omni-channel advertising platform that allows ad buyers to pick from over 500 billion digital ad opportunities a day (including targeted ads across connected TV, mobile, video, audio, display, social, and native). We recently wrote about The Trade Desk in detail last month (where we correctly predicted that it would resume its steep share price declines in the short term), and we'll have more to say about The Trade Desk in the conclusion of this report.ConclusionThe market is ugly. Very ugly. Aside from the sky-high valuation levels many top growth stocks achieved last year (a bubble that continues to burst), macroeconomic conditions are bad (as described in this report). And unless you are in a position to buy-and-hold for the next decade, it would probably be a terrible idea to dump 100% of your nest egg into high growth stocks as described in this report (you might instead want to consider our recent report: Top 10 Big-Dividend Preferred Stocks).On the other hand, if you are a long-term investor, you have a distinct advantage. That is to say, long-term compound growth is one of the most powerful wealth-creating machines in the history of the world, but only if you have the ability to hang on (to high-growth secular leaders like Palantir, The Trade Desk and Datadog) through years of very high volatility (like we are experiencing now). In fact, this year's steep price declines may get even worse (for reasons described in this report), but if you truly are a long-term investor you might also want to consider our expanded list of 150 top growth stocks down big (which also includes a few more top growth stock ideas in particular) especially because we strongly believe the market will eventually get better.No one knows where the market will be next week, next month or even next year. But over the long-term, it's likely eventually going much higher (especially top growth stocks, like Palantir). And over the long-term, top-quality dividends stocks are also likely to keep paying big, steady, growing dividends. Choose an investment strategy that is right for you, based on your unique situation and goals. We believe disciplined, long-term, goal-focused investing will continue to be a winner.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042277402,"gmtCreate":1656490627006,"gmtModify":1676535839753,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042277402","repostId":"1148096186","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148096186","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656486106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148096186?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-29 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148096186","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Bu","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.</li><li>Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.</li><li>Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS&#39; dominance in enterprise software.</li><li>Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.</li></ul><p>If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn&#39;t hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.</p><p>It&#39;s time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435db134f2fc8dbf9289c062fbad1864\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><b>What&#39;s going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn&#39;t justify the massive share price collapse</b></p><p>First of all, let&#39;s address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you&#39;ll notice that Palantir&#39;s correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and &#34;risk off&#34; attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.</p><p>Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir&#39;s Q2 guidance outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8c07bb7c75548a94a1abbbf47d3b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For Q2, Palantir is guiding to &#34;base case&#34; revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.</p><p>The key thing here, however: <b>Palantir has a &#34;wide range&#34; of potential upside drivers to this forecast.</b> The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir&#39;s go-to-market performance.</p><p><b>The long-term bull case is still vibrant</b></p><p>Wall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.</p><p>It&#39;s important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669be31c4037d75a919175406729f826\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company&#39;s PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar&#39;s prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:</p><blockquote>The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.</blockquote><blockquote>With Foundry, you&#39;re 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.</blockquote><blockquote>That&#39;s why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That&#39;s why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry&#39;s application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.</blockquote><blockquote>What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.&#34;</blockquote><p>Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:</p><ul><li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b> Palantir isn&#39;t a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li><li><b>Growth at scale.</b> Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it&#39;s a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir&#39;s products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li><li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b> Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir&#39;s products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir&#39;s direct sales force can&#39;t handle.</li><li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li><li><b>Free cash flow.</b> Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li></ul><p>In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.</p><p><b>Formidable growth continues</b></p><p>Nor should investors get the impression that Palantir&#39;s growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir&#39;s Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833acc59cf63e20602348b8cb23afb9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir&#39;s business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2cdeb72f8b2a25fe7b7a3a8320408f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p>For now, Palantir&#39;s growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there&#39;s plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.</p><p><b>GAAP margins are drifting toward breakeven</b></p><p>One final point to extract from Palantir&#39;s latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir&#39;s high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir&#39;s stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7c309dbda404642f0722d408632b6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)</p><p><b>Valuation and key takeaways</b></p><p>In spite of Palantir&#39;s strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir&#39;s most recent balance sheet, its resulting <b>enterprise value is $17.16 billion.</b></p><p>For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir&#39;s stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street&#39;s consensus figures, the stock trades at:</p><ul><li><b>8.6x EV/FY22 revenue</b></li><li><b>6.7x EV/FY23 revenue</b></li></ul><p>There was a time when A) Palantir traded north of &gt;25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I&#39;m not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.</p><p><b>The bottom line here:</b> Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don&#39;t miss this buying opportunity.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: This Is What A Rare Buying Opportunity Looks Like\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-29 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520635-palantir-stock-rare-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148096186","content_text":"SummaryShares of Palantir have dropped 50% year to date and are now trading below their IPO price.Business fundamentals have continued to march forward, completely disconnected to the stock crash. In particular, Palantir continues to grow commercial revenue at a 50%+ y/y pace.Products like Foundry, with massive TAMs, have the ambition of taking over AWS' dominance in enterprise software.Palantir is trading cheaply at ~9x forward revenue, especially as it expects to continue 30%+ y/y revenue growth for the next three years.If you were to ask me for a single stock I would choose to invest in for a year-end rebound, I wouldn't hesitate to name Palantir (NYSE:PLTR). This big data giant, a fabled software company for its close relationships with the U.S. government (particularly the armed forces), has seen a tremendous stock market reversal this year. Dropping quite suddenly from being one of the most celebrated and richly-valued tech stocks in the industry, Palantir has now shed half of its value.It's time, in my view, for investors to take a hard second look at this name.Data byYChartsWhat's going on with Palantir? Slightly soft guidance doesn't justify the massive share price collapseFirst of all, let's address the recent goings-on with Palantir. If you look at the stock price chart above, you'll notice that Palantir's correction accelerated in May, after the company released Q1 earnings results and updated its guidance. Two things are at play here: of course, the broader stock market correction and \"risk off\" attitude have hammered high-growth stocks like Palantir.Separately outside of that, investors reacted harshly to Palantir's Q2 guidance outlook.Palantir outlook(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For Q2, Palantir is guiding to \"base case\" revenue of $470 million. This represents 30% y/y growth, and was below the $483.8 million (+34% y/y growth) that Wall Street had hoped for.The key thing here, however: Palantir has a \"wide range\" of potential upside drivers to this forecast. The company has notoriously long offered very flimsy guidance targets relative to other companies and frequently sets a low bar for itself to cross. This guidance update should not be read as any meaningful slowdown in Palantir's go-to-market performance.The long-term bull case is still vibrantWall Street and most investors are famously short-term oriented, but with a company like Palantir, we should be far more interested in the longer-term bullish thesis.It's important to recognize that Palantir remains one of the leading software companies in big data and AI. Since its IPO only two years ago, the company has rolled out a slew of new products:Palantir new products(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Though not a new product, the product we should be watching closely is Palantir Foundry, which is the company's PaaS (platform-as-a-service) offering for both government and corporate clients to build and deploy applications. Palantir has ambitions of Foundry overtaking AWS as the central hub for app development. Per COO Shyam Sankar's prepared remarks on the Q1 earnings call:The greatest opportunity for Foundry continues to be the application development infrastructure platform. We believe that Foundry will become the place that you go to build the applications of the future. With AWS or Azure with their highly unopinionated collection of services, most of the work remains in front of you to get to value. And all of that onus is on you, the customer, to get to that value.With Foundry, you're 90% of the way there on day 1. Software-defined data integration, native multi-tenancy for your applications, the OPIs, version pipelines, applications, artifacts, to just name some of the components, that make Foundry work from the start.That's why U.S. Space Forces’, Kobayashi Maru factory realized their ambition, building 13 operationally accepted applications on top of Foundry in months while sunsetting legacy $100 million-plus programs. That's why Airbus rolled out an internally developed supply chain network control tower, a suite built on top of Foundry's application development infrastructure. And this set of applications, it mitigates supply chain issues and is working towards saving hundreds of millions of euros annually by speeding up production against existing fixed capacity and reducing inventory across all parts.What AWS was in the last decade, Foundry will be in the next.\"Here, in my view, are all the key reasons to be bullish on Palantir for the long haul:Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways. Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.Growth at scale. Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).Stepping up go-to-market momentum. Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.One foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.Free cash flow. Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).In short, focus on the long-term expansion potential here: Q2 guidance is just noise, a drop in the bucket.Formidable growth continuesNor should investors get the impression that Palantir's growth in recent quarters has been lagging, either. One highlight to extract from Palantir's Q1 earnings results: total commercial revenue grew 54% y/y to $205 million. As seen in the chart below, that represents four straight quarters of acceleration:Palantir commercial revenue performance(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)The company has also broadened its customer counts. At present, Palantir's business revolves primarily around large government contracts and mega blue-chip corporations. But with the company stepping up its go-to-market activities on the commercial side, the mid-market represents another major growth leg for Palantir that it has not yet tapped into. In Q1 alone, Palantir grew its customer base by 40 customers, or 17%.Palantir customer growth(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)For now, Palantir's growth metrics are still vibrant (and note as well that with 124% net revenue retention rates, there's plenty of revenue expansion happening within the existing install base too). The fact that the company is expecting to continue pushing for 30%+ y/y growth through 2025 is also quite rare for a company of its scale.GAAP margins are drifting toward breakevenOne final point to extract from Palantir's latest Q1 results: though investors flagged Palantir's high GAAP losses at the time of its IPO, these margins are slowly converging toward break-even. In Q1, GAAP operating margins boosted to -9%, versus -33% in the year-ago Q1 (helped in no small part by the devaluation of Palantir's stock, which reduces stock-comp expenses on paper):Palantir margin trends(Palantir Q1 earnings deck)Valuation and key takeawaysIn spite of Palantir's strengths and all its long-term potential, the stock is currently trading at what I consider to be an unmissable bargain. At current share prices just below $10, Palantir trades at a $19.70 billion market cap. After we net off the $2.52 billion of cash on Palantir's most recent balance sheet, its resulting enterprise value is $17.16 billion.For the current fiscal year FY22, Wall Street analysts are expecting revenue of $1.99 billion (+29% y/y), and for next year FY23, consensus stands at $2.56 billion (+29% y/y). Both estimates, by the way, fall short of Palantir's stated guidance of maintaining 30%+ growth through 2025 (and so far, Palantir has never backed down on a commitment). Nevertheless, at Wall Street's consensus figures, the stock trades at:8.6x EV/FY22 revenue6.7x EV/FY23 revenueThere was a time when A) Palantir traded north of >25x current-year revenue, and B) when software companies with mere 15-20% y/y growth traded at a 9-10x revenue multiple. Though I'm not exactly calling for tech valuation multiples to revert to the excesses of 2021, I think Palantir looks incredibly cheap given its target to sustain 30% y/y growth for the long term.The bottom line here: Palantir is a rare combination of strong execution, unparalleled branding and reputation, a wide basket of massive-TAM products, and reasonable valuation. Don't miss this buying opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039902538,"gmtCreate":1645862978370,"gmtModify":1676534071409,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cybersecurity","listText":"Cybersecurity","text":"Cybersecurity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039902538","repostId":"1190464811","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190464811","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645832971,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190464811?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-26 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy Right Now on Russia-Ukraine Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190464811","media":"investorplace","summary":"Almost three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global tensions are continuing to mount. U.S. P","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Almost three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global tensions are continuing to mount. U.S. President Joe Biden has announced harsher sanctions aimed at Russia’s financial and tech sectors. And while many agree that this type of action is necessary, it has also given rise to a new conflict-driven fear. CNN reports that U.S. officials have issued a dire warning to American businesses — be prepared for ransomware attacks.</p><p>This announcement came just minutes after Biden confirmed the new sanctions yesterday. David Ring, a senior cyber official with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), told businesses that Russia’s cybercrime operations were likely to grow as the conflict continued. In ransomware attacks, a company’s data is held hostage through a phishing scam until a fee is paid. This trend of cybercrime from Russia has been growing steadily, but the war is likely to escalate it further.</p><p>While there have not been any “specific, credible threats” made to the U.S. homeland, businesses aren’t going to wait until there are. Cybersecurity companies are about to see an influx of demand for their services. Let’s take a look at the top cybersecurity stocks to buy before fears increase even more.</p><p>Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW)</p><p>SentinelOne (NYSE:S)</p><p>CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD)</p><h2>Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy: Palo Alto Networks (PANW)</h2><p>A leader within the cybersecurity space, PANW had plenty to recommend it before the year began. InvestorPlace contributor Larry Ramer predicted that it was likely to outperform the Nasdaq in 2022. So far, its performance supports that hypothesis. Ramer noted that in addition to the mounting demand for cybersecurity services, the sector is becoming increasingly reliant on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Palo Alto Networks was quick to realize that and begin utilizing this type of tech. Fellow contributor Chris Markoch also touted the benefits of its App-ID platform and standalone solutions. Both authors issued these endorsements before war in Ukraine became a viable threat.</p><p>Now, conflict has escalated with a nation known for cyberattacks. There is even more reason to believe that PANW will continue to rise as this transpires. InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reports that analysts remain primarily bullish on the stock, issuing high price targets. This is partially due to the company’s recently reported earnings. However, the strong market momentum pushing cyber stocks upward remains a far more important factor. This sector leader should absolutely be held among cybersecurity stocks to buy.</p><h2>SentinelOne (S)</h2><p>Founded in 2013, SentinelOne made stock market history in June 2021 as the highest valued initial public offering (IPO) of the cybersecurity sector. Since then, it hasn’t disappointed investors. When InvestorPlace contributor Muslim Farooque analyzed top 2022 cyber plays, he noted that SentinelOne boasted an impressive AI platform. Additionally, the firm more than doubled its sales in 2020 and continued to grow in 2021.</p><p>After being courted by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in early 2022, cyber defense leader Mandiant (NASDAQ:MNDT) opted to form a strategic alliance with SentinelOne to help clients mitigate data breaches and other cyber threats. Also worth noting is the fact that SentinelOne boasts a customer-centric business model. “Mutual collaboration means the company and its partners serve their customer needs fully,” notes InvestorPlace contributor Chris Lau. Both attributes position the company well to help customers prevent cyberattacks before they happen, making S stock a clear play for cybersecurity stocks to buy.</p><h2>Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy: CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)</h2><p>Amid the market selloff that we saw in February 2021, Wall Street still held CRWD not just among cybersecurity stocks to buy but among general market winners. It’s not hard to see why. The company is a leader among software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks. It boasts a dynamic platform that is designed to assist with many cybersecurity needs. This positions it well to capture a significant market share. Now that a global conflict is poised to push the sector to new heights, CrowdStrike is likely to ride the wave to the top.</p><p>Yesterday, CRWD was among the winners of the day as cyber stocks popped across the board. As InvestorPlace contributor Chris MacDonald notes, U.S. investors are not taking the threat of international cyber attacks lightly. Given what is at stake, this is an appropriate reaction. The threat of ransomware attacks have boosted U.S. cybersecurity stocks in times when there was no war with Russia. Now that there is a conflict in Ukraine, dynamic industry leaders like CrowdStrike are at a clear advantage.</p><p>The stock saw some turbulence early in the year. However, investors who bought the dip will be rewarded as widespread fears send trusted cybersecurity winners up.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy Right Now on Russia-Ukraine Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy Right Now on Russia-Ukraine Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-26 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-cybersecurity-stocks-to-buy-right-now-on-russia-ukraine-fears/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Almost three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global tensions are continuing to mount. U.S. President Joe Biden has announced harsher sanctions aimed at Russia’s financial and tech sectors. And...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-cybersecurity-stocks-to-buy-right-now-on-russia-ukraine-fears/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-cybersecurity-stocks-to-buy-right-now-on-russia-ukraine-fears/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190464811","content_text":"Almost three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global tensions are continuing to mount. U.S. President Joe Biden has announced harsher sanctions aimed at Russia’s financial and tech sectors. And while many agree that this type of action is necessary, it has also given rise to a new conflict-driven fear. CNN reports that U.S. officials have issued a dire warning to American businesses — be prepared for ransomware attacks.This announcement came just minutes after Biden confirmed the new sanctions yesterday. David Ring, a senior cyber official with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), told businesses that Russia’s cybercrime operations were likely to grow as the conflict continued. In ransomware attacks, a company’s data is held hostage through a phishing scam until a fee is paid. This trend of cybercrime from Russia has been growing steadily, but the war is likely to escalate it further.While there have not been any “specific, credible threats” made to the U.S. homeland, businesses aren’t going to wait until there are. Cybersecurity companies are about to see an influx of demand for their services. Let’s take a look at the top cybersecurity stocks to buy before fears increase even more.Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW)SentinelOne (NYSE:S)CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD)Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy: Palo Alto Networks (PANW)A leader within the cybersecurity space, PANW had plenty to recommend it before the year began. InvestorPlace contributor Larry Ramer predicted that it was likely to outperform the Nasdaq in 2022. So far, its performance supports that hypothesis. Ramer noted that in addition to the mounting demand for cybersecurity services, the sector is becoming increasingly reliant on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Palo Alto Networks was quick to realize that and begin utilizing this type of tech. Fellow contributor Chris Markoch also touted the benefits of its App-ID platform and standalone solutions. Both authors issued these endorsements before war in Ukraine became a viable threat.Now, conflict has escalated with a nation known for cyberattacks. There is even more reason to believe that PANW will continue to rise as this transpires. InvestorPlace’s Eddie Pan reports that analysts remain primarily bullish on the stock, issuing high price targets. This is partially due to the company’s recently reported earnings. However, the strong market momentum pushing cyber stocks upward remains a far more important factor. This sector leader should absolutely be held among cybersecurity stocks to buy.SentinelOne (S)Founded in 2013, SentinelOne made stock market history in June 2021 as the highest valued initial public offering (IPO) of the cybersecurity sector. Since then, it hasn’t disappointed investors. When InvestorPlace contributor Muslim Farooque analyzed top 2022 cyber plays, he noted that SentinelOne boasted an impressive AI platform. Additionally, the firm more than doubled its sales in 2020 and continued to grow in 2021.After being courted by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in early 2022, cyber defense leader Mandiant (NASDAQ:MNDT) opted to form a strategic alliance with SentinelOne to help clients mitigate data breaches and other cyber threats. Also worth noting is the fact that SentinelOne boasts a customer-centric business model. “Mutual collaboration means the company and its partners serve their customer needs fully,” notes InvestorPlace contributor Chris Lau. Both attributes position the company well to help customers prevent cyberattacks before they happen, making S stock a clear play for cybersecurity stocks to buy.Cybersecurity Stocks to Buy: CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)Amid the market selloff that we saw in February 2021, Wall Street still held CRWD not just among cybersecurity stocks to buy but among general market winners. It’s not hard to see why. The company is a leader among software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks. It boasts a dynamic platform that is designed to assist with many cybersecurity needs. This positions it well to capture a significant market share. Now that a global conflict is poised to push the sector to new heights, CrowdStrike is likely to ride the wave to the top.Yesterday, CRWD was among the winners of the day as cyber stocks popped across the board. As InvestorPlace contributor Chris MacDonald notes, U.S. investors are not taking the threat of international cyber attacks lightly. Given what is at stake, this is an appropriate reaction. The threat of ransomware attacks have boosted U.S. cybersecurity stocks in times when there was no war with Russia. Now that there is a conflict in Ukraine, dynamic industry leaders like CrowdStrike are at a clear advantage.The stock saw some turbulence early in the year. However, investors who bought the dip will be rewarded as widespread fears send trusted cybersecurity winners up.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915533898,"gmtCreate":1665065785715,"gmtModify":1676537551845,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915533898","repostId":"1191721961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191721961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665044676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191721961?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191721961","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.Tha","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Investors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.</li><li>That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.</li><li>Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e6de7f0fab0e6bb37cdb11d688fb5d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Whether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.</p><h2>What Is A Recession?</h2><p>The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.</p><p>However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.</p><p>Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it&#39;s worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e244cd5d88e7efe563b9a11bbbd69704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>The shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it&#39;s safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.</p><p>That doesn&#39;t mean a recession won&#39;t come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it&#39;s safe to say that we&#39;re probably entering a recession.</p><p>If that does happen, what&#39;s the outlook on the S&amp;P 500? Let&#39;s take a look.</p><h2>Historical Recessions</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>As shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&amp;P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there&#39;s quite a range of outcomes here, but it&#39;s clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.</p><p>This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That&#39;s a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.</p><p>Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there&#39;s potentially more room to fall.</p><p>I won&#39;t hazard a guess as to who&#39;s right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?</p><p>You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market&#39;s returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Recession</b></td><td><b>SPY Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nov-48:Oct-49</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-53:May-54</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Aug-57:Apr-58</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-60:Feb-61</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-69:Nov-70</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Nov-73:Mar-75</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-80:Jul-80</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-81:Nov-82</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-90:Mar-91</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Mar-01:Nov-01</td><td>-9%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-07:Jun-09</td><td>-39%</td></tr><tr><td>Feb-20:Mar-20</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>-2%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Median</b></td><td><b>2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: The Author</p><p>The key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it&#39;s actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it&#39;s safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn&#39;t bet on great returns during a recession, but they&#39;re also not out of the question.</p><h2>Best Course For Investors</h2><p>At Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don&#39;t attempt to time the market based on whether we&#39;re in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that&#39;s my preferred strategy. In this section, I&#39;ll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>This is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn&#39;t discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you&#39;ll ever find with SPY, and it&#39;s again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they&#39;ll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48970cb98595a3c00b76cfcea64bead8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Current Market Valuation</span></p><p>The next data point is the S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don&#39;t see any earnings growth for the next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe698a5c07dfcf88b263624c52a6404\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Morningstar Equity Research</span></p><p>Another data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar&#39;s DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.</p><p>Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.</p><p>At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar&#39;s.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Stock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.</p><p>I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you&#39;re of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.</p><p>However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191721961","content_text":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.DNY59ThesisWhether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.What Is A Recession?The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it's worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.FREDThe shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it's safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.That doesn't mean a recession won't come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it's safe to say that we're probably entering a recession.If that does happen, what's the outlook on the S&P 500? Let's take a look.Historical RecessionsYahoo FinanceAs shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there's quite a range of outcomes here, but it's clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That's a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there's potentially more room to fall.I won't hazard a guess as to who's right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market's returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:RecessionSPY ReturnNov-48:Oct-4911%Jul-53:May-5425%Aug-57:Apr-58-5%Apr-60:Feb-6118%Dec-69:Nov-703%Nov-73:Mar-75-24%Jan-80:Jul-800%Jul-81:Nov-826%Jul-90:Mar-9113%Mar-01:Nov-01-9%Dec-07:Jun-09-39%Feb-20:Mar-20-24%Average-2%Median2%Source: The AuthorThe key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it's actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it's safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn't bet on great returns during a recession, but they're also not out of the question.Best Course For InvestorsAt Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don't attempt to time the market based on whether we're in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that's my preferred strategy. In this section, I'll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.Yahoo FinanceThis is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn't discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you'll ever find with SPY, and it's again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they'll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.Current Market ValuationThe next data point is the S&P 500's historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don't see any earnings growth for the next year.Morningstar Equity ResearchAnother data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar's DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar's.ConclusionStock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you're of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9048458134,"gmtCreate":1656249227028,"gmtModify":1676535792109,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Warren Buffett&nbsp;","listText":"Warren Buffett&nbsp;","text":"Warren Buffett","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9048458134","repostId":"1191010488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191010488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656202469,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191010488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-26 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191010488","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as theS&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dipthat bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs,Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&amp;P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he&#39;s managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.</p><p>Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it&#39;s Buffett.</p><p>So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett&#39;s famous rules for investing in a bear market.</p><p>1. Buy quality merchandise on sale</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Whether we&#39;re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.</p><p>As an example, Buffett&#39;s response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.</p><p>You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.</p><p>2. Hold forever</p><blockquote><i>&#34;Our favorite holding period is forever.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>When you buy stocks you&#39;d like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don&#39;t have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.</p><p>3. Stay calm</p><blockquote><i>&#34;The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>It&#39;s normal and useful to second-guess your &#34;hold forever&#34; plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.</p><p>The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that&#39;s easier to do when you can analyze what&#39;s happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that&#39;s sure to dampen your long-term returns.</p><p>4. Keep your distance</p><p>Buffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:<i>&#34;I would tell them: Don&#39;t watch the market too closely.&#34;</i></p><p>Let&#39;s say you&#39;re confident that your &#34;hold forever&#34; stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you&#39;re not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what&#39;s the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn&#39;t one.</p><p>It&#39;s OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.</p><p>Buy or do nothing</p><p>When a bear market sets in, you&#39;ll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you&#39;re questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's 4 Rules for Investing in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-26 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1943735/how-to-pick-great-value-stocks-like-warren-buffett?art_rec=home-home-top_stories-ID01-txt-1943735","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191010488","content_text":"Warren Buffett began his investing career in a bear market. He bought his first stock in the early 1940s at age 11 as the S&P 500 was on its way to a 35% dip that bottomed in 1942. Since then, he's managed through 12 more bear markets not including this one.Despite those downturns, Buffett has managed to create billions in value for himself and the shareholders of the company he runs, Berkshire Hathaway. If any investor is qualified to share wisdom on investing in bear markets, it's Buffett.So it makes sense to lean on his expertise to get through this tough climate with your wealth intact, right? To get you started, here are four of Buffett's famous rules for investing in a bear market.1. Buy quality merchandise on sale\"Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.\"Buffett invests in high-quality businesses -- companies with a proven ability to create shareholder value through all economic climates. In his view, bear markets provide opportunities to buy these quality stocks at lower prices.As an example, Buffett's response earlier this year to the tech stock sell-off was to buy more of his favorite technology company, Apple. Although Apple already comprised more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, Buffett bought another 3.78 million shares.You can mimic his strategy by identifying stocks you love for their long-term prospects. If your budget allows, increase your investing activity and pad your share counts while prices remain low.2. Hold forever\"Our favorite holding period is forever.\"When you buy stocks you'd like to hold forever, bear markets become far less stressful. Since your plan is to hold for the long run, you don't have to do anything when the market goes sideways. No reshuffling your portfolio and no guessing when share prices will bottom out. Your only job is to wait.3. Stay calm\"The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.\"It's normal and useful to second-guess your \"hold forever\" plan when circumstances change. Certainly, there will be times when you should drop a stock you thought was a keeper.The distinction you must make is whether circumstances have changed permanently or temporarily. And that's easier to do when you can analyze what's happening calmly and rationally. If you let your emotions take over, they can convince you to scrap your plan, cut your losses, or take some other dramatic action that's sure to dampen your long-term returns.4. Keep your distanceBuffett said this when asked what advice he had for investors in tough markets:\"I would tell them: Don't watch the market too closely.\"Let's say you're confident that your \"hold forever\" stocks can withstand a temporary bear market. And for that reason, you're not going to react to falling share prices. In that scenario, what's the benefit of tracking every bump along the way? There isn't one.It's OK to keep some distance from financial headlines when the market is going crazy. Consider it a survival strategy that helps you stay calm and stick to your investing plan.Buy or do nothingWhen a bear market sets in, you'll see Buffett mostly buy or hold. If you're questioning whether those are the right moves for your portfolio, remember this: Buffett is worth about $95 billion, and he has invested through more bear markets than almost anyone. His tactics can help you emerge from this bear market stronger and wealthier than ever.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049070061,"gmtCreate":1655729197753,"gmtModify":1676535693764,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049070061","repostId":"2244119397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244119397","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655739014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244119397?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Looking for the Next FAANG Stocks? 4 Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244119397","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The STAR stocks could deliver market-crushing returns in the coming decades.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The FAANG stocks dramatically outperformed the market over the past decade. <b>Netflix</b> led the way with a 1,750% return, followed by <b>Amazon</b> and <b>Alphabet</b> with returns of 847% and 651%. Finally, <b>Apple </b>and <b>Meta Platforms</b> delivered gains of 535% and 438%.</p><p>All those companies benefited from industry leadership, strong revenue growth, and a massive market opportunity, and there&#39;s a good chance the next FAANG stocks will share those traits. With that in mind, the STAR stocks could deliver market-crushing returns in the coming decades.</p><h2>1. Shopify</h2><p><b>Shopify</b> provides software and services that allow merchants to manage businesses across physical and digital channels, including direct to consumer (D2C) websites. That differentiates it from marketplace operators like Amazon. D2C models afford merchants greater control over the buyer experience, which can help them build lasting customer relationships.</p><p>Shopify has become a key player in the commerce industry. Its platform powers over 2 million businesses, and it ranks as the leading e-commerce software vendor as measured by market presence. Perhaps more impressively, Shopify powered 10.3% of e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year, more than any other retailer except Amazon.</p><p>The company&#39;s strong competitive position has translated into solid financial results.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p>Metric</p></th><th><p>Q1 2020</p></th><th><p>Q1 2022</p></th><th><p>CAGR</p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$1.7 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$4.8 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>67%</p></td></tr><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>($107 million)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$254 million</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>N/A</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p><p>Online retail sales totaled $4.9 trillion last year, but that figure will climb as e-commerce takes share from traditional retail. That puts Shopify in front of a big opportunity. Management is working to strengthen its market presence by expanding internationally, engaging buyers through its mobile app, extending payments services to non-Shopify merchants, and building a fulfillment network to enable next-day delivery.</p><p>If Shopify successfully executes on those initiatives, it could be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world&#39;s most valuable companies a decade or two down the road. That would likely mean market-crushing returns for patient investors.</p><h2>2. Tesla</h2><p><b>Tesla</b> has revolutionized the auto industry with its direct sales model, semiconductor expertise, and battery cell technology. In the first quarter, Tesla once again ranked as the leader in electric car sales, capturing 15.5% market share. Better yet, its relentless pursuit of manufacturing efficiency is paying off. It posted an industry-leading operating margin of 14.6% in third-quarter 2021, and that figure rose to 19.2% in Q1 2022.</p><p>Financially, Tesla is firing on all cylinders.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p>Metric</p></th><th><p>Q1 2020</p></th><th><p>Q1 2022</p></th><th><p>CAGR</p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$26 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$62.2 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>55%</p></td></tr><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$992 million</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$6.9 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>164%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p><p>Tesla aims to grow vehicle deliveries by 50% per year, and it should benefit from several near-term catalysts, including increased production capacity from new factories in Germany and Texas, and the debut of the Cybertruck and Semi. However, CEO Elon Musk sees its largest opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.</p><p>Tesla has a robotaxi slated for production in 2024, and Musk says full self-driving (FSD) technology will ultimately be the primary profit engine for the car business. Once its FSD software is ready, Tesla will launch an autonomous ride-hailing service, entering a market that could generate $2 trillion in annual profits by 2030, according to Ark Invest.</p><p>Tesla also plans to build an autonomous humanoid robot that Musk believes could be more valuable than its car business. Production could start as early as next year. If Tesla achieves its ambitions, it could reshape the world in the coming decades.</p><h2>3. Airbnb</h2><p><b>Airbnb</b> has disrupted the travel industry with its asset-light business model. By sourcing rental properties from hosts in tens of thousands of cities, its business model is more cost-efficient than traditional hotels. Airbnb can onboard new hosts (and add new listings) in minutes, with little expense, and its platform offers a greater variety of lodging options for guests.</p><p>Despite facing significant headwinds at the pandemic&#39;s onset, Airbnb has rebounded quickly. Its free cash flow margin of over 40% is particularly noteworthy.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p>Metric</p></th><th><p>Q1 2020</p></th><th><p>Q1 2022</p></th><th><p>CAGR</p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$4.8 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$6.6 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>17%</p></td></tr><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>($765 million)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$2.8 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>N/A%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: SEC filings, YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p><p>Thanks to recent innovations like flexible search parameters and listing categories (like &#34;treehouse&#34; or &#34;castles&#34;), Airbnb is evolving into a recommendation engine. Its platform can offer ideas for people who are flexible on where and when they travel. It&#39;s also working to disrupt the tourism industry by enabling guests to book experiences while traveling.</p><p>In the past year, Airbnb&#39;s gross booking value was $53.8 billion, a fraction of its $3.4 trillion addressable market. If the company continues to innovate, this growth stock could generate monster returns.</p><h2>4. Roku</h2><p><b>Roku</b> is the most popular streaming platform in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It accounted for 31% of global streaming time in Q1, nearly doubling the market share of the next closest competitor, Amazon Fire TV. It owes that success to brand authority and the growing collection of free programming (including original content) on its ad-supported streaming service, The Roku Channel.</p><p>Thanks to that competitive edge, Roku has become a key player in the rapidly growing digital ad industry.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p>Metric</p></th><th><p>Q1 2020</p></th><th><p>Q1 2022</p></th><th><p>CAGR</p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$1.2 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$2.9 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>53%</p></td></tr><tr><td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow (TTM)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>($54.5 million)</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>$183 billion</p></td><td width=\"156\"><p>N/A</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p><p>Roku is well positioned to maintain its momentum. Connected TV ad spend in the U.S. will reach $100 billion by 2030, up from $21 billion in 2021, according to BMO Capital Markets. Just as Google built its ad supremacy by positioning itself as the gateway to the internet, Roku could achieve the same success as the gateway to streaming entertainment.</p><p>Roku also recently announced shoppable ads for retailers, a service that will leverage its payments platform (Roku Pay) to enable consumer purchases directly through ads on the platform. To that end, Roku could have a sizable digital payments business in a decade or two, in addition to a digital ad empire. That&#39;s why this growth stock is a buy.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking for the Next FAANG Stocks? 4 Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking for the Next FAANG Stocks? 4 Growth Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/the-next-faang-stocks-4-growth-stocks-to-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The FAANG stocks dramatically outperformed the market over the past decade. Netflix led the way with a 1,750% return, followed by Amazon and Alphabet with returns of 847% and 651%. Finally, Apple and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/the-next-faang-stocks-4-growth-stocks-to-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ABNB":"爱彼迎","ROKU":"Roku Inc","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/the-next-faang-stocks-4-growth-stocks-to-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2244119397","content_text":"The FAANG stocks dramatically outperformed the market over the past decade. Netflix led the way with a 1,750% return, followed by Amazon and Alphabet with returns of 847% and 651%. Finally, Apple and Meta Platforms delivered gains of 535% and 438%.All those companies benefited from industry leadership, strong revenue growth, and a massive market opportunity, and there's a good chance the next FAANG stocks will share those traits. With that in mind, the STAR stocks could deliver market-crushing returns in the coming decades.1. ShopifyShopify provides software and services that allow merchants to manage businesses across physical and digital channels, including direct to consumer (D2C) websites. That differentiates it from marketplace operators like Amazon. D2C models afford merchants greater control over the buyer experience, which can help them build lasting customer relationships.Shopify has become a key player in the commerce industry. Its platform powers over 2 million businesses, and it ranks as the leading e-commerce software vendor as measured by market presence. Perhaps more impressively, Shopify powered 10.3% of e-commerce sales in the U.S. last year, more than any other retailer except Amazon.The company's strong competitive position has translated into solid financial results.MetricQ1 2020Q1 2022CAGRRevenue (TTM)$1.7 billion$4.8 billion67%Free cash flow (TTM)($107 million)$254 millionN/AData source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.Online retail sales totaled $4.9 trillion last year, but that figure will climb as e-commerce takes share from traditional retail. That puts Shopify in front of a big opportunity. Management is working to strengthen its market presence by expanding internationally, engaging buyers through its mobile app, extending payments services to non-Shopify merchants, and building a fulfillment network to enable next-day delivery.If Shopify successfully executes on those initiatives, it could be one of the world's most valuable companies a decade or two down the road. That would likely mean market-crushing returns for patient investors.2. TeslaTesla has revolutionized the auto industry with its direct sales model, semiconductor expertise, and battery cell technology. In the first quarter, Tesla once again ranked as the leader in electric car sales, capturing 15.5% market share. Better yet, its relentless pursuit of manufacturing efficiency is paying off. It posted an industry-leading operating margin of 14.6% in third-quarter 2021, and that figure rose to 19.2% in Q1 2022.Financially, Tesla is firing on all cylinders.MetricQ1 2020Q1 2022CAGRRevenue (TTM)$26 billion$62.2 billion55%Free cash flow (TTM)$992 million$6.9 billion164%Data source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.Tesla aims to grow vehicle deliveries by 50% per year, and it should benefit from several near-term catalysts, including increased production capacity from new factories in Germany and Texas, and the debut of the Cybertruck and Semi. However, CEO Elon Musk sees its largest opportunities in artificial intelligence and robotics.Tesla has a robotaxi slated for production in 2024, and Musk says full self-driving (FSD) technology will ultimately be the primary profit engine for the car business. Once its FSD software is ready, Tesla will launch an autonomous ride-hailing service, entering a market that could generate $2 trillion in annual profits by 2030, according to Ark Invest.Tesla also plans to build an autonomous humanoid robot that Musk believes could be more valuable than its car business. Production could start as early as next year. If Tesla achieves its ambitions, it could reshape the world in the coming decades.3. AirbnbAirbnb has disrupted the travel industry with its asset-light business model. By sourcing rental properties from hosts in tens of thousands of cities, its business model is more cost-efficient than traditional hotels. Airbnb can onboard new hosts (and add new listings) in minutes, with little expense, and its platform offers a greater variety of lodging options for guests.Despite facing significant headwinds at the pandemic's onset, Airbnb has rebounded quickly. Its free cash flow margin of over 40% is particularly noteworthy.MetricQ1 2020Q1 2022CAGRRevenue (TTM)$4.8 billion$6.6 billion17%Free cash flow (TTM)($765 million)$2.8 billionN/A%Data source: SEC filings, YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.Thanks to recent innovations like flexible search parameters and listing categories (like \"treehouse\" or \"castles\"), Airbnb is evolving into a recommendation engine. Its platform can offer ideas for people who are flexible on where and when they travel. It's also working to disrupt the tourism industry by enabling guests to book experiences while traveling.In the past year, Airbnb's gross booking value was $53.8 billion, a fraction of its $3.4 trillion addressable market. If the company continues to innovate, this growth stock could generate monster returns.4. RokuRoku is the most popular streaming platform in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It accounted for 31% of global streaming time in Q1, nearly doubling the market share of the next closest competitor, Amazon Fire TV. It owes that success to brand authority and the growing collection of free programming (including original content) on its ad-supported streaming service, The Roku Channel.Thanks to that competitive edge, Roku has become a key player in the rapidly growing digital ad industry.MetricQ1 2020Q1 2022CAGRRevenue (TTM)$1.2 billion$2.9 billion53%Free cash flow (TTM)($54.5 million)$183 billionN/AData source: YCharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.Roku is well positioned to maintain its momentum. Connected TV ad spend in the U.S. will reach $100 billion by 2030, up from $21 billion in 2021, according to BMO Capital Markets. Just as Google built its ad supremacy by positioning itself as the gateway to the internet, Roku could achieve the same success as the gateway to streaming entertainment.Roku also recently announced shoppable ads for retailers, a service that will leverage its payments platform (Roku Pay) to enable consumer purchases directly through ads on the platform. To that end, Roku could have a sizable digital payments business in a decade or two, in addition to a digital ad empire. That's why this growth stock is a buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049047893,"gmtCreate":1655729157612,"gmtModify":1676535693749,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple","listText":"Apple","text":"Apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049047893","repostId":"2244145198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2244145198","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655738413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2244145198?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-20 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2244145198","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Are you for or against Apple stock?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Apple</b> ranks high among the most popular companies in the world. Its flagship product, the iPhone, is one of the most successful tech-based devices of all time.</p><p>That popularity has helped make Apple stock successful and in demand for more than a decade now. But is the stock still a buy? There are undoubtedly opinions on both sides.</p><p>Let&#39;s look at both sides of the argument and see if we can determine whether the bull case or the bear case wins the day on Apple stock.</p><h2>Bull case: Innovation spanning decades</h2><p>The decades of proven innovation are at the core of my bull case for Apple. The company has developed multiple iconic products that have generated billions of dollars in sales, and that ability is attractive to investors. The ability to keep coming up with something new that consumers want suggests that Apple can keep the revenue train rolling even when sales of its current lineup start to lose steam (something that is not yet the case with its current lineup).</p><p>Annual revenue has gone from $156 billion a decade ago to $365 billion in the latest fiscal year. That growth boosted annual operating income from $55 billion to $109 billion over the same timeframe. The various iterations of the iPhone have fueled much of that surge and show no significant signs of slowing down.</p><p>In Apple&#39;s most recent quarter, sales of the iPhone (now in its 13th iteration) increased from $47.9 billion in the prior year&#39;s quarter to $50.6 billion. The most recent update included the latest 5G technology, spurring higher-than-average upgrades from older models.</p><p>Moreover, the popularity of the iPhone has allowed Apple to build a robust services business that complements the pioneering smartphone. The company boasts a whopping 825 million service subscribers, an increase of 165 million from last year. Its lineup includes Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Apple Fitness, and more. Note the gross margin on its services segment is 72.6%, while that of its products is 36.4%.</p><p>Those 825 million subscribers are not only providing high-margin revenue to Apple, but are also prime candidates to buy its latest products. Once customers enter the Apple ecosystem and customize their products and services to their liking, they&#39;ll likely stick around long term.</p><h2>Bear case: Heavy dependence on iPhone</h2><p>The bear case concedes that Apple is a tremendously successful innovator with decades of proof. However, the case against investing in Apple centers around its iPhone dependence. While Apple has done an excellent job creating sought-after consumer electronics like the iPod, iPad, AirPods, Apple Watch, etc., it&#39;s still largely dependent on the iPhone.</p><p>In its most recent quarter, the iPhone comprised 52% of the company&#39;s overall sales. That&#39;s not even including all the attachments that go along with it. The risk is that if Apple doesn&#39;t continue its iPhone success, revenue growth could stall or even reverse. Similarly, if another business creates a more attractive consumer electronic that unseats the iPhone, it could be disastrous for Apple.</p><p>There are hints of wearable glasses that could be capable of everything a smartphone can do and more. Virtual-reality headsets are gaining in popularity alongside the metaverse. Innovation is unpredictable. For Apple to rely so heavily on one product for 52% of its sales adds a layer of risk to the business.</p><h2>The bulls win out</h2><p>Overall, the bull case carries more weight. Admittedly, there&#39;s a risk in Apple&#39;s dependence on the iPhone. That being said, with its decades-long history of creating multiple innovative products, Apple stands a reasonable chance of pivoting to the next popular thing when it comes to light.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Bull vs. Bear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Bull vs. Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-20 23:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple ranks high among the most popular companies in the world. Its flagship product, the iPhone, is one of the most successful tech-based devices of all time.That popularity has helped make Apple ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/17/apple-stock-bull-vs-bear/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2244145198","content_text":"Apple ranks high among the most popular companies in the world. Its flagship product, the iPhone, is one of the most successful tech-based devices of all time.That popularity has helped make Apple stock successful and in demand for more than a decade now. But is the stock still a buy? There are undoubtedly opinions on both sides.Let's look at both sides of the argument and see if we can determine whether the bull case or the bear case wins the day on Apple stock.Bull case: Innovation spanning decadesThe decades of proven innovation are at the core of my bull case for Apple. The company has developed multiple iconic products that have generated billions of dollars in sales, and that ability is attractive to investors. The ability to keep coming up with something new that consumers want suggests that Apple can keep the revenue train rolling even when sales of its current lineup start to lose steam (something that is not yet the case with its current lineup).Annual revenue has gone from $156 billion a decade ago to $365 billion in the latest fiscal year. That growth boosted annual operating income from $55 billion to $109 billion over the same timeframe. The various iterations of the iPhone have fueled much of that surge and show no significant signs of slowing down.In Apple's most recent quarter, sales of the iPhone (now in its 13th iteration) increased from $47.9 billion in the prior year's quarter to $50.6 billion. The most recent update included the latest 5G technology, spurring higher-than-average upgrades from older models.Moreover, the popularity of the iPhone has allowed Apple to build a robust services business that complements the pioneering smartphone. The company boasts a whopping 825 million service subscribers, an increase of 165 million from last year. Its lineup includes Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Apple Fitness, and more. Note the gross margin on its services segment is 72.6%, while that of its products is 36.4%.Those 825 million subscribers are not only providing high-margin revenue to Apple, but are also prime candidates to buy its latest products. Once customers enter the Apple ecosystem and customize their products and services to their liking, they'll likely stick around long term.Bear case: Heavy dependence on iPhoneThe bear case concedes that Apple is a tremendously successful innovator with decades of proof. However, the case against investing in Apple centers around its iPhone dependence. While Apple has done an excellent job creating sought-after consumer electronics like the iPod, iPad, AirPods, Apple Watch, etc., it's still largely dependent on the iPhone.In its most recent quarter, the iPhone comprised 52% of the company's overall sales. That's not even including all the attachments that go along with it. The risk is that if Apple doesn't continue its iPhone success, revenue growth could stall or even reverse. Similarly, if another business creates a more attractive consumer electronic that unseats the iPhone, it could be disastrous for Apple.There are hints of wearable glasses that could be capable of everything a smartphone can do and more. Virtual-reality headsets are gaining in popularity alongside the metaverse. Innovation is unpredictable. For Apple to rely so heavily on one product for 52% of its sales adds a layer of risk to the business.The bulls win outOverall, the bull case carries more weight. Admittedly, there's a risk in Apple's dependence on the iPhone. That being said, with its decades-long history of creating multiple innovative products, Apple stands a reasonable chance of pivoting to the next popular thing when it comes to light.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":63,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035402773,"gmtCreate":1647650073481,"gmtModify":1676534254967,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035402773","repostId":"2220772010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2220772010","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647648841,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2220772010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-19 08:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DocuSign Stock Rises as CEO Buy ~$5M in Company Shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220772010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"DocuSign shares have popped 9.5% on disclosure that CEO Daniel Springer purchased  66,882 shares of ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>DocuSign shares have popped 9.5% on disclosure that CEO Daniel Springer purchased  66,882 shares of the common&#39;s stock, worth ~$5M.</p><p>The shares were purchased at $73.20 - $77.07 price range in a transaction dated Mar. 15, 2022.</p><p>A look at DOCU&#39;s ownership composition:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e6c475214f80f88ffba8b89faecf16b\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>DocuSign plunged 20% on Mar. 11, 2022, after the electronic signature company posted fourth-quarter results that topped estimates, but provided guidance for slower growth, a concern for investors.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign Stock Rises as CEO Buy ~$5M in Company Shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign Stock Rises as CEO Buy ~$5M in Company Shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-19 08:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3815051-docusign-stock-rises-as-ceo-buy-5m-in-company-shares><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>DocuSign shares have popped 9.5% on disclosure that CEO Daniel Springer purchased  66,882 shares of the common's stock, worth ~$5M.The shares were purchased at $73.20 - $77.07 price range in a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3815051-docusign-stock-rises-as-ceo-buy-5m-in-company-shares\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4528":"SaaS概念","DOCU":"Docusign","BK4023":"应用软件"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3815051-docusign-stock-rises-as-ceo-buy-5m-in-company-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2220772010","content_text":"DocuSign shares have popped 9.5% on disclosure that CEO Daniel Springer purchased  66,882 shares of the common's stock, worth ~$5M.The shares were purchased at $73.20 - $77.07 price range in a transaction dated Mar. 15, 2022.A look at DOCU's ownership composition:DocuSign plunged 20% on Mar. 11, 2022, after the electronic signature company posted fourth-quarter results that topped estimates, but provided guidance for slower growth, a concern for investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917931404,"gmtCreate":1665408926808,"gmtModify":1676537601044,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917931404","repostId":"1129204631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204631","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665415321,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129204631?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-10 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204631","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.</li><li>However, that doesn&#39;t mean it will be the bottom.</li><li>Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.</li></ul><p>The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&amp;P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.</p><p>The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&amp;P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a5b3b87d56cd4bd4441ffe78d7917b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>An October New Low?</b></p><p>From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.</p><p>It&#39;s All About Rates</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn&#39;t see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe9b42330ab57d8cb7fcad9ad287b66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Since 2014, the average spread between the S&amp;P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&amp;P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/716b902ff03171d3d6501fc54cd5e4ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Another 9% Decline?</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&amp;P 500 back to a historically average fair value.</p><p>With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&amp;P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e039fb8224601f45af66fa8d842e51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>What will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&amp;P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.</p><p>Rate Cuts?</p><p>Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446920a17ef8c631f042c4e6c66a83c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>As the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebdd77840eddc274c550c53a8b6d962\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Meanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a37e7dfd2cd888c6f32ea805482bc8b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>In this case, Friday&#39;s job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.</p><p>If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren&#39;t finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2022 Bear Market Cycle May Be Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-10 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545463-2022-bear-market-cycle-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204631","content_text":"SummaryThe bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October.However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom.Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates.The bear market of 2022 still has further to run based on historical trends and valuations versus interest rates. The 2022 S&P 500 continues to trace bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008, which is more an indication of the ebb and flow of human nature than past and future events.The mid-August peak served as another turning point for the S&P 500, leading to a new September low. At this point, the historical references of the great bear markets of the past suggest another low is due sometime around October 25, give or take a couple of days, followed by an upward move and perhaps some consolidation.BloombergAn October New Low?From a perspective of events that could lead to a continued decline and bottom at the end of October, a better-than-feared earnings season could be one such event. Whether a late October low will be the bottom or a short-term low is yet to be seen, but given how high valuations are, more work will need to be done for the bottom to be put in place.It's All About RatesThe S&P 500 earnings yield for 2022 minus the 10-Yr real yield is currently 4.56%. Historically, that is at the lower end of the range and associated with market tops, not bottoms. For example, the 4.5% region was visited in December 2016, January 2018, October 2018, and June 2020. The only case that didn't see a significant decline was in December 2016, when the index consolidated sideways for nearly three months.BloombergSince 2014, the average spread between the S&P 500 current year earnings yields and the 10-Yr real yield has been around 5.2%, with a standard deviation range of 4.87% to 5.57%. Currently, the S&P 500 premium to the 10-yr TIP is more than two standard deviations from the average. The spread would need to rise by 30 bps to get the index back to within one standard deviation, or by 65 bps to return to the historical average.BloombergAnother 9% Decline?The S&P 500 has an earnings yield based on 2022 earnings estimates of 6.17%. An increase of 30 bps would increase the yield to 6.47%, and an increase of 60 bps would increase the yield to 6.77%. The earnings yield is simply the inverse of the PE ratio, which means the current PE ratio is 16.2 and would need to fall to 15.4 or 14.7 to bring the S&P 500 back to a historically average fair value.With the earnings estimates for 2022 currently tracking at $224.73, it would value the S&P 500 in a range of 3,460 to 3,300. That would equal a further decline in the index of around 5% to 9%.BloombergWhat will tell us when this bear market is over is more likely to be interest rates and the dollar index, as these will likely provide a much better signal than other metrics. Because if rates continue to rise, the S&P 500 will need to continue to decline with the pace of rates risings.Rate Cuts?Typically, the 10-year minus the 2-year spread tells us when the Fed is about to start cutting rates. It is at the point where the spread begins to rise that tends to serve as the best reference for the end of a rate-hiking cycle and the start of a rate-cutting cycle.BloombergAs the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, the 2-Year yield begins to fall back to the 10-Year. It is the opposite, with the 10-2 year spread just recently making a new low in September and showing very little if no signs of turning higher.BloombergMeanwhile, the best way to determine when the 10-2 Year spread may begin to rise is by looking at the unemployment rate because that tends to be a very good predictor of where yields are heading. Typically, when the unemployment starts to run higher, it indicates that the 10-2 year spread will widen, suggesting a rate cut cycle is near.BloombergIn this case, Friday's job report showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% last month and back to its July lows. That leaves the spread between the ten and 2-year Treasury nowhere close to putting in a bottom, and means the Fed is probably nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle.If the Fed is nowhere close to finishing its rate hiking cycle, then rates probably aren't finished rising. Thus, the equity market bear market cycle probably still has further to run, even if the equity market finds a short-term bottom at the end of October.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056504332,"gmtCreate":1655039361226,"gmtModify":1676535551262,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056504332","repostId":"2242306965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242306965","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655005845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242306965?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-12 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242306965","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2><b>Investment Thesis</b></h2><p>Since our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.</p><p>However, if we were to split up China&#39;s unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA&#39;s recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4&#39;22. That would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&amp;P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.</p><p>Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.</p><h2>BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro Issues</h2><p><b>BABA Revenue and Gross Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bddd3fb20de09e66cd1e37175083889\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>In FQ4&#39;22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company&#39;s declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China&#39;s Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.</p><p><b>BABA Revenue By Segment</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5beecf897ef22504ee5d40ec234fb7c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>It is evident that BABA&#39;s e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.</p><p><b>BABA Net Income and Net Income Margin</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc8d3c27a586f36ff581a18d27e41c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA&#39;s net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4&#39;21 to $0.45B in FQ4&#39;22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.</p><p><b>BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF Margins</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4595749199296e7f0bad57afe634ddd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA&#39;s previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1&#39;23 onwards.</p><p><b>BABA Operating Expense</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09cc638b935d072afe2e931e33e1995\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Given BABA&#39;s continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4&#39;22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4&#39;22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&amp;D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA&#39;s capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.</p><p><b>BABA Projected Revenue and Net Income</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab3c1f73050159ba48c5b0ef34aaaef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Since our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA&#39;s revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government&#39;s intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA&#39;s projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.</p><h2><b>So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</b></h2><p><b>BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30d659fd1b639f4a0b0ba027100df036\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>BABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.</p><p><b>BABA 5Y Stock Price</b></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57cbc8c4a7a3a3577e51256f83f2e97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Nonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.</p><p>Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.</p><p>Therefore, we <i>rate BABA stock as a Buy.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Fear Of Missing Out? Do Not Miss The Boat Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-12 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517691-alibaba-fomo-do-not-miss-boat-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242306965","content_text":"Investment ThesisSince our last analysis, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) has risen by 18.59%, from $92.67 on 17 May 2022 to $109.90 on 9 June 2022. It is evident that the recovery has been swift, given the multiple positive tailwinds in its direction. However, with the shaky Chinese stock market, it is uncertain if the gains could hold and trigger a bull run for BABA.However, if we were to split up China's unrelenting COVID-19 strategies and the potential easing of big tech punishment, BABA's recovery is almost certain, given its good execution in FQ4'22. That would be one highly welcomed news, given how dreary the stock market looks right now, given that BABA had recovered 28.04% of its value in the past month compared to S&P 500 Index at 0.42%. Opportune investors would be well advised to take advantage of the current bear market to add more undervalued stocks to their portfolios, since it is entirely possible that the time of maximum pain is over.Nevertheless, investors hoping for the revival of ANT IPO would definitely be disappointed, since the Chinese government denied the news report, leading to a -8.13% stock decline from $119.62 on 8 June 2022.BABA Closed Off FY2022 Beautifully Despite Macro IssuesBABA Revenue and Gross IncomeS&P Capital IQIn FQ4'22, BABA reported revenues of $32.18B, representing excellent YoY growth of 12.51%, despite the enforced lockdowns in multiple Chinese cities. Though the company's declining gross margins may worry some investors, we could attribute it partly to the inflation caused by global supply chain issues and China's Zero Covid Policy and reinvestments into its businesses, and therefore, temporary.BABA Revenue By SegmentS&P Capital IQIt is evident that BABA's e-commerce segment continues to be the revenue driver, with 13.1% YoY growth while accounting for the majority of its revenue at 86.6%. Its cloud segment also reported remarkable growth with an increase of 16.7% increase YoY, despite the impact of COVID restrictions and reduced demand from the tech industry.BABA Net Income and Net Income MarginS&P Capital IQBABA's net income also grew from -$0.82B in FQ4'21 to $0.45B in FQ4'22, thereby improving its net income margins YoY from -2.9% to 2.8%, respectively.BABA Cash/ Equivalents, FCF, and FCF MarginsS&P Capital IQNonetheless, it is also apparent that the generation of BABA's previously robust free cash flows is declining, given the decreasing profitability and its payment towards the Anti-monopoly fine at approximately $1.36B. However, since the latter represents the final payment towards the Chinese government, we may expect improved FCF from FQ1'23 onwards.BABA Operating ExpenseS&P Capital IQGiven BABA's continuous efforts to improve its operating efficiencies by cutting jobs in March 2022 and enhancing its logistical costs, we may also see improved operating margins moving ahead. We can see hints of these improvements in FQ4'22, where the company spent $7.19B in its operating expenses in FQ4'22, representing a 25% decrease QoQ in R&D, Selling/Marketing, and General/Administrative expenses. Assuming that BABA continues on this cost reduction path, we are confident of BABA's capabilities in improving its profitability moving forward.BABA Projected Revenue and Net IncomeS&P Capital IQSince our previous analysis in May 2022, BABA's revenue growth has been upgraded from a CAGR of 7.09% to 9.33%, though its net income is projected to grow even faster from a CAGR of 38.94% to 56.53%. For FY2023, consensus estimates also upgraded its revenue growth to 3.62% YoY, thereby underlining their optimistic view on the recovery of BABA stock and the overall Chinese market. Assuming the stabilization of the Chinese economy as per the government's intention with a GDP target of 5.5%, we could potentially see an upwards rerating of BABA's projected revenue and net income growth moving forward. We shall see.So, Is BABA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?BABA 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQBABA is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 1.92x and NTM P/E of 14.73x, lower than its 5Y mean of 6.29x and 25.10x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $109.90, down 52.4% from its 52 weeks high of $230.89, though already at a 49.9% premium from its 52 weeks low of $73.28.BABA 5Y Stock PriceSeeking AlphaNonetheless, given the consensus estimates price target of $170.89 for BABA, investors who add now would still have a 55.5% upside from current prices. It is also evident from the chart that its pre-pandemic prices stand at $170s before rallying to over $300 during the ANT IPO hype.Therefore, it is not too late to back up the truck and load up on BABA now.Therefore, we rate BABA stock as a Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010159059,"gmtCreate":1648300942187,"gmtModify":1676534326356,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr&nbsp;","listText":"Pltr&nbsp;","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010159059","repostId":"2222598883","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2222598883","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648253706,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2222598883?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: No Longer Significantly Undervalued, But Still A Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2222598883","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Drew Angerer/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) has enjoyed a ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd1acd65270b9eedaacda706ac01e71\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Drew Angerer/Getty Images News</p><p></p><h2>Investment Thesis</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE:PLTR) has enjoyed a robust recovery since its FQ4 earnings card. We also discussed in our previous article and shared with readers why the stock could be bottoming (Buy rating). PLTR stock has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> (SPY) since our article was published (+25% Vs. +4.3%).</p><p>Therefore, we think the stock is no longer significantly undervalued due to the remarkable recovery. However, we believe Palantir stock still represents a solid opportunity for investors who have an appetite for speculative positions.</p><p>We discuss why PLTR stock is still in the Buy zone.</p><h2>PLTR stock key metrics</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d04acf4625fc3b3543708430fd666b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PLTR stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9f1de45f6dc5f458522707d33341e20\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>PLTR stock NTM Revenue trend (TIKR)</p><p></p><p>PLTR stock has moved closer to the average consensus price targets (PTs). Investors should note that the average PTs have often been strong resistance levels previously. Nevertheless, there&#39;s still an implied upside of more than 50% to its average PTs. In addition, we also observed that PLTR stock has also moved convincingly away from its most conservative PTs.</p><p>Therefore, despite its recent recovery, the Street has not been in a hurry to re-rate PLTR stock.</p><p>Furthermore, PLTR stock&#39;s NTM revenue multiple has recovered from its all-time lows to 12.4x. As a result, it&#39;s also broadly in line with its high-growth SaaS peers (12.6x) that we track.</p><p>Hence, considering the above factors, we think PLTR stock looks fairly valued now.</p><h2>Where is Palantir Heading in 2022?</h2><p>We consider PLTR as a speculative stock. Therefore, we would usually not encourage investors to add at a fair valuation. Even though CEO Alex Karp has committed to GAAP profitability moving forward, Palantir still has much to convince. But, the commitment towards GAAP profitability is critical to assuaging investors of Palantir&#39;s incremental operating leverage moving forward.</p><p>Furthermore, COO Shyam Sankar emphasized that he expects its adjusted operating margins to remain relatively stable in a recent conference. Therefore, we consider it a crucial factor in modeling Palantir&#39;s valuation accurately. The Street also highlighted the criticality of projecting relatively stable margins. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> (MS) emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote>We are wondering about the company&#39;s long-term operating margin. We saw &#39;wild swings&#39;-from 17% in 2020, to 31% in 2021, and a projecting 27% for 2022. <i>Confidence in the steady-state margin profile is key</i> to understanding EPS growth longer-term. - Barron&#39;s</blockquote><p>In addition, we were also concerned about Palantir&#39;s government segment growth deceleration. Its commercial segment has certainly accelerated remarkably, but its adjusted profitability has also taken a marked impact.</p><p>The company has continued to modularize Foundry for easier adoption by its commercial customers. For example, Sankar accentuated that Palantir has adopted consumption-based pricing for Foundry. We applaud Palantir&#39;s approach, as we think it&#39;s the correct move, given <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>&#39;s (SNOW) success. In a recent Snowflake article, we discussed that CIOs highly favor the consumption-based pricing model. Such an approach has allowed Snowflake&#39;s customers to move workloads and test Snowflake&#39;s data cloud suitability without significant upfront commitments. Nonetheless, it could also lead to considerable volatility in revenue and profitability. In addition, consumption ramp also takes considerable time, and new logo wins are unlikely to be reflected in the P&amp;L in the near term.</p><p>Nonetheless, it&#39;s the right move for Palantir going forward. We think investors need to accord Karp &amp; Team sufficient time to encourage wider adoption of its Foundry OS.</p><p>Notably, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dramatically lifted our expectations over its government segment&#39;s growth. Palantir had experienced weakness in growth momentum in Europe.</p><p>But the stakes in Europe have changed dramatically since the Russian invasion started a month ago. Germany has raised its defense spending dramatically from 1.53% to 2%. Furthermore, Palantir&#39;s Gotham platform has been utilized by Western intelligence in the conflict. Therefore, the geopolitical stakes have risen significantly, and we believe the momentum will carry on.</p><p>And, there probably isn&#39;t another defense contractor whose platform is on par with Palantir, given its success with the US government. Hence, we believe that Palantir is in an enviable position to leverage the increased defense spending. Sankar emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote>The work that we&#39;ve done with MetaConstellation, is being used by multiple Western allied services to really observe from an intelligence domain.</blockquote><blockquote>They are focusing on how can they can <i>use this in a real-time decision-making sort of basis.</i> <i>Europe is not the same place it was 2 years ago.</i></blockquote><blockquote>You see that with the Germans committing EUR 100 billion to modernizing their force because they realized the threats are real. So, I think that&#39;s also going to create a lot of market access. Not just because they need it, but <i>they also are going to need it in the context of collaborating with Allied Forces</i>. (Morgan Stanley TMT Conference 2022)</blockquote><p>As if the emphasis by Sankar wasn&#39;t sufficient, CEO Alex Karp followed up with an assertive letter, imploring European leaders to &#34;step up and fight this battle alongside us in order to win.&#34; Karp emphasized (edited):</p><blockquote><i>The fantasy of an instinctively peaceful world may be comforting</i>. But it is again coming to an end.</blockquote><blockquote><i>Europe has for the past two decades stood on the sidelines</i> of the digital revolution, whose principal participants are still essentially all based in the United States.</blockquote><blockquote>The unrelenting innovation and disruption from American firms has reshaped industries and extinguished others. The need for Europe to become a leader in disruptive defense technology is clear.</blockquote><blockquote>An embrace of the relationship between technology and the state, between <i>disruptive companies that seek to dislodge</i> the grip of entrenched contractors and the federal government ministries with funding, will be required for Europe and its allies to remain strong enough to defeat the threat of foreign occupation. (Letter from Palantir CEO)</blockquote><p>Therefore, Palantir is wasting no time pushing European governments that they need to move now. These leaders need to adopt Palantir&#39;s platform to integrate their intelligence, surveillance, and sensors with the US government.</p><p>Hence, we believe it could even elevate Palantir&#39;s commercial branding in Europe from the potential increased momentum in government spending. Therefore, the events unfolding in Europe could be a significant tailwind for Palantir moving forward.</p><h2>Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h2><p>We discussed that PLTR stock seems fairly valued now. But, long-term speculative investors can still add exposure given these potential tailwinds.</p><p>Nevertheless, its stock could still be volatile in the near term, so investors are encouraged to add in phases. But, we think the stage has been set for Palantir to advance further in Europe.</p><p>Consequently, we could experience an upward inflection in government spending moving forward. Nevertheless, such momentum may not be reflected in the short term, so investors need to temper their expectations accordingly.</p><p>As such, <i>we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR stock</i>.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: No Longer Significantly Undervalued, But Still A Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: No Longer Significantly Undervalued, But Still A Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497731-palantir-stock-not-significantly-undervalued-still-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Drew Angerer/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) has enjoyed a robust recovery since its FQ4 earnings card. We also discussed in our previous article and shared ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497731-palantir-stock-not-significantly-undervalued-still-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","MS":"摩根士丹利","SNOW":"Snowflake","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4543":"AI","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497731-palantir-stock-not-significantly-undervalued-still-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2222598883","content_text":"Drew Angerer/Getty Images NewsInvestment ThesisPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) has enjoyed a robust recovery since its FQ4 earnings card. We also discussed in our previous article and shared with readers why the stock could be bottoming (Buy rating). PLTR stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF (SPY) since our article was published (+25% Vs. +4.3%).Therefore, we think the stock is no longer significantly undervalued due to the remarkable recovery. However, we believe Palantir stock still represents a solid opportunity for investors who have an appetite for speculative positions.We discuss why PLTR stock is still in the Buy zone.PLTR stock key metricsPLTR stock consensus price targets Vs. stock performance (TIKR)PLTR stock NTM Revenue trend (TIKR)PLTR stock has moved closer to the average consensus price targets (PTs). Investors should note that the average PTs have often been strong resistance levels previously. Nevertheless, there's still an implied upside of more than 50% to its average PTs. In addition, we also observed that PLTR stock has also moved convincingly away from its most conservative PTs.Therefore, despite its recent recovery, the Street has not been in a hurry to re-rate PLTR stock.Furthermore, PLTR stock's NTM revenue multiple has recovered from its all-time lows to 12.4x. As a result, it's also broadly in line with its high-growth SaaS peers (12.6x) that we track.Hence, considering the above factors, we think PLTR stock looks fairly valued now.Where is Palantir Heading in 2022?We consider PLTR as a speculative stock. Therefore, we would usually not encourage investors to add at a fair valuation. Even though CEO Alex Karp has committed to GAAP profitability moving forward, Palantir still has much to convince. But, the commitment towards GAAP profitability is critical to assuaging investors of Palantir's incremental operating leverage moving forward.Furthermore, COO Shyam Sankar emphasized that he expects its adjusted operating margins to remain relatively stable in a recent conference. Therefore, we consider it a crucial factor in modeling Palantir's valuation accurately. The Street also highlighted the criticality of projecting relatively stable margins. Morgan Stanley (MS) emphasized (edited):We are wondering about the company's long-term operating margin. We saw 'wild swings'-from 17% in 2020, to 31% in 2021, and a projecting 27% for 2022. Confidence in the steady-state margin profile is key to understanding EPS growth longer-term. - Barron'sIn addition, we were also concerned about Palantir's government segment growth deceleration. Its commercial segment has certainly accelerated remarkably, but its adjusted profitability has also taken a marked impact.The company has continued to modularize Foundry for easier adoption by its commercial customers. For example, Sankar accentuated that Palantir has adopted consumption-based pricing for Foundry. We applaud Palantir's approach, as we think it's the correct move, given Snowflake's (SNOW) success. In a recent Snowflake article, we discussed that CIOs highly favor the consumption-based pricing model. Such an approach has allowed Snowflake's customers to move workloads and test Snowflake's data cloud suitability without significant upfront commitments. Nonetheless, it could also lead to considerable volatility in revenue and profitability. In addition, consumption ramp also takes considerable time, and new logo wins are unlikely to be reflected in the P&L in the near term.Nonetheless, it's the right move for Palantir going forward. We think investors need to accord Karp & Team sufficient time to encourage wider adoption of its Foundry OS.Notably, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dramatically lifted our expectations over its government segment's growth. Palantir had experienced weakness in growth momentum in Europe.But the stakes in Europe have changed dramatically since the Russian invasion started a month ago. Germany has raised its defense spending dramatically from 1.53% to 2%. Furthermore, Palantir's Gotham platform has been utilized by Western intelligence in the conflict. Therefore, the geopolitical stakes have risen significantly, and we believe the momentum will carry on.And, there probably isn't another defense contractor whose platform is on par with Palantir, given its success with the US government. Hence, we believe that Palantir is in an enviable position to leverage the increased defense spending. Sankar emphasized (edited):The work that we've done with MetaConstellation, is being used by multiple Western allied services to really observe from an intelligence domain.They are focusing on how can they can use this in a real-time decision-making sort of basis. Europe is not the same place it was 2 years ago.You see that with the Germans committing EUR 100 billion to modernizing their force because they realized the threats are real. So, I think that's also going to create a lot of market access. Not just because they need it, but they also are going to need it in the context of collaborating with Allied Forces. (Morgan Stanley TMT Conference 2022)As if the emphasis by Sankar wasn't sufficient, CEO Alex Karp followed up with an assertive letter, imploring European leaders to \"step up and fight this battle alongside us in order to win.\" Karp emphasized (edited):The fantasy of an instinctively peaceful world may be comforting. But it is again coming to an end.Europe has for the past two decades stood on the sidelines of the digital revolution, whose principal participants are still essentially all based in the United States.The unrelenting innovation and disruption from American firms has reshaped industries and extinguished others. The need for Europe to become a leader in disruptive defense technology is clear.An embrace of the relationship between technology and the state, between disruptive companies that seek to dislodge the grip of entrenched contractors and the federal government ministries with funding, will be required for Europe and its allies to remain strong enough to defeat the threat of foreign occupation. (Letter from Palantir CEO)Therefore, Palantir is wasting no time pushing European governments that they need to move now. These leaders need to adopt Palantir's platform to integrate their intelligence, surveillance, and sensors with the US government.Hence, we believe it could even elevate Palantir's commercial branding in Europe from the potential increased momentum in government spending. Therefore, the events unfolding in Europe could be a significant tailwind for Palantir moving forward.Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We discussed that PLTR stock seems fairly valued now. But, long-term speculative investors can still add exposure given these potential tailwinds.Nevertheless, its stock could still be volatile in the near term, so investors are encouraged to add in phases. But, we think the stage has been set for Palantir to advance further in Europe.Consequently, we could experience an upward inflection in government spending moving forward. Nevertheless, such momentum may not be reflected in the short term, so investors need to temper their expectations accordingly.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998999349,"gmtCreate":1660914045583,"gmtModify":1676536422422,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9998999349","repostId":"1142247584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142247584","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660908097,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142247584?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-19 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142247584","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Alibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.</li><li>With international expansion being the company&#39;s major revenue growth driver, I believe they will easily outperform current growth expectations, leading to a more stable company.</li><li>Their efforts to increase their per-user income on their merchant and commerce platforms is driving margin expansion, adding to my increasingly bullish stance.</li><li>I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and believe they will easily outperform if you&#39;re willing to take on the risks for the next 5 to 10 years.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and its share price have been in a whirlwind environment as Chinese regulatory authorities began cracking down on technology companies and potential growth disruptors emerged. About a year later, there have been signs that this crackdownis easing as regulatory agencies took a step back and are now focusing on companies who are violating specific business practices, which Alibaba, for the most part, does not partake in.</p><p>However, after the company&#39;s share price stabilized, US regulatory authorities began evaluating Chinese owned companies which were listed in the United States on US-based exchanges for possible delisting. This sent the company&#39;s share price back down towards the levels it was at during the Chinese crackdown. As no material changes to its structure or its growth prospects took place over the course of this event, I continue to believe in the company&#39;s resiliency and that current valuations present a unique investment opportunity for folks who are patient and can wait through a lot of high-profile noise which is nearly certain to emerge as the world&#39;s two economic superpowers collide.</p><p>Overall, there are certainly risks associated with this investment and any investment in a company which is under scrutiny and potential delisting, but for me - the reward is easily worth the risk at this point in time.</p><p>Here are the reasons why.</p><h2>Revenue Growth Is Steady</h2><p>Alibaba has so many revenue streams and programs that it would take several articles to go through them all, as their650 page 20-F(foreign company version of 10K) shows. But there are several revenue streams of theirs which I believe constitute an outsized portion of their growth prospects. Let&#39;s zero in.</p><p>The first one is their<b>cloud business</b>. While cloud computing is continuing to replace a significant portion of the worlds standard IT infrastructure, the company is focused on not only maximizing their cloud business in the People&#39;s Republic of China but also looking at international markets, particularly in Eastern Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, to continue and grow this business. Getting in the door early in a lot of these other countries, before they fully become a developed nation status and garner outside investments, is key to maintaining a long term presence.</p><p>The company also has another advantage, similar to Amazon (AMZN) in the United States - their cloud margins are so large that they use those profits to subsidize other expansion opportunities like their retail and commerce business expansion. Another plus is that since their margins are so large after all the infrastructure investment they put in, they have a much lower potential price point than other competitors in the Asia-Pacific region and can win cloud contracts which will aid their overall expansion efforts.</p><p>The second part is the <b>retail and commerce business</b>. I realize that these 2 business segments amount to a majority of their revenues, but they also amount to the largest portion of their expansion potential. Allowing merchants in other Asia-Pacific region nations to seamlessly sell their products and run their small businesses across the region and the world is a huge plus and as these nations become more and more of economic powerhouses, the company is set to reap the benefits of these early investments.</p><p>The company has been investing in deploying resources and building infrastructure in other regions across the world, as well as partnering with local tech and retail companies to provide their services. This, I believe, will be a big part of enabling their continued high-pace growth, even as they&#39;ve begun to saturate in the People&#39;s Republic of China with their commerce platform.</p><h2>What It Means For 2030(ish)</h2><p>Alibaba Group, according toanalyst estimates aggregated by Seeking Alpha, is projected to report revenues which are higher by about 63% by 2028, rising from $134 billion, the projected figure for this upcoming year, to just shy of $218 billion.</p><p>This represents a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 10.2% over the next 5 years when it comes to the company&#39;s revenues. Translating that to earnings shows how the company&#39;s investment are going to pay off, while they continue to work on expanding their per-user revenues which drives profits.</p><p>Over the same time period, the company is projected to report a 94% bump in EPS, rising from a projected $7.34 in the upcoming fiscal year to $14.29 in 2028. This represent a CAGR of 14.2% over the next 5 years.</p><p>There are a few reasons for this, with the most important one being margin expansion.</p><h2>Margins Expected To Increase</h2><p>Even though the company has already admitted that their user base, comprised of over 1 billion monthly average users in the People&#39;s Republic of China, is relatively saturated - they&#39;re working on expanding the per-wallet revenue, which translated to higher profits as costs for those users are already accounted for in most scenarios across their commerce platforms.</p><p>These are two of the main reasons I believe the company is set to outperform these expectations - I don&#39;t believe that analysts consensus, linked earlier, fully account for the company&#39;s international expansion efforts and that an increased revenue base may mean that short term margins will contract - the longer term margins are set to outperform as revenues increase and thus long term growth is set to outperform.</p><p>This means that a company which is currently expected to report higher margins, as evident by the higher CAGR in earnings vs revenues, is expected to, I believe, report faster growing earnings per share figures starting 2 to 3 years from now due to their international expansion efforts. This means that they are highly likely to outperform the historical annual market performance of roughly 10%. There&#39;s also another benefit I believe other companies with higher debt loads are going to begin to face which Alibaba will not.</p><h2>Interest Expense Control</h2><p>As interest rates continue to rise all around the world, Alibaba is using their cash pile to control the increase of debt and refinance their existing debt to lower overall interest expense. Even though the company&#39;s overall debt payments and interest expense are almost negligible relative to their income, the focus on this now can potentially save them several billions of dollars a year over the next decade, which can be used to increase shareholder value and help them compete for new users in new international markets.</p><p>After peaking in 2018 with the company paying $612 million a year in interest expense, they&#39;ve seen a steady reduction every year since and now pay $504 million a year in interest expense.</p><p>From 2020 to 2021, the company took on a nice new chunk of debt, rising from just shy of $17 billion to about $20.7 billion. Since then, it has remained relatively steady as they currently have about $20.6 billion in long term debt. They&#39;ve refinanced some of that debt and worked to raise money in more friendly means to avoid the rising interest rate environment.</p><p>As the company has a significant cash pile, I believe they can continue and work to reduce their debt pile to help with valuation, but given the low overall interest rate they pay, it&#39;s not as much of a priority, as long as it doesn&#39;t substantially increase.</p><h2>Valuation vs Expectations</h2><p>Currently, the company is trading at about 7x to 12x forward earnings, depending on how far out you go. Given that I believe that international expansion may keep margins at currently projected levels, I am opting to look at revenue multiples for the next 5 years to find an adequate valuation.</p><p>Comparing the company to Amazon is the most obvious choice given the similarity of their business structures and segments. Amazon is currently trading at about 2.8x forward sales for the upcoming year and 1.5x forward sales for 2028 projected sales. The companies have more or less a similar revenue growth rate projection but Alibaba is trading at a significantly lower multiple.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td><td>2026</td><td>2027</td><td>2028</td></tr><tr><td>Alibaba</td><td>+5.9%</td><td>+13.6%</td><td>+11.5%</td><td>+10.7%</td><td>+7.2%</td><td>+8.4%</td></tr><tr><td>1.8x</td><td>1.6x</td><td>1.4x</td><td>1.3x</td><td>1.2x</td><td>1.1x</td></tr><tr><td>Amazon</td><td>+11.2%</td><td>+15.4%</td><td>+14.6%</td><td>+12.3%</td><td>+13.4%</td><td>+12.7%</td></tr><tr><td>2.8x</td><td>2.4x</td><td>2.1x</td><td>1.9x</td><td>1.7x</td><td>1.5x</td></tr></tbody></table><p>(Source: Seeking Alpha Aggregate - Analyst Projections -BABA&amp;AMZN)</p><p>An easier way to look at it is the percentage of Alibaba&#39;s growth relative to Amazon&#39;s, which although it shows that certain years may be comparable, most are not and thus Alibaba, under current projections, should be trading higher.</p><table><tbody><tr><td>2023</td><td>2024</td><td>2025</td><td>2026</td><td>2027</td><td>2028</td></tr><tr><td>Growth</td><td>52.7%</td><td>88.3%</td><td>78.8%</td><td>89.0%</td><td>53.7%</td><td>66.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Multiple</td><td>64.3%</td><td>66.7%</td><td>66.7%</td><td>68.4%</td><td>70.6%</td><td>73.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><h2>Conclusion - Cheap &amp; Valuable</h2><p>Given that the aforementioned comparison to Amazon concludes that under their current projections, Alibaba is set to spend the upcoming year slightly overvalued relative to Amazon, it will spend the following 3 at a significantly lower one. This is before my expected outperformance when it comes to international expansion efforts alongside their margin expansion from working to increase their per-user revenue streams.</p><p>The later out projections are still there, but that&#39;s where I expect Alibaba to do their best once their international margins expand towards their domestic ones. I believe that by 2028, the company will be outperforming their current revenue expectations by about 20% and current earnings per share expectations by about 15%, representing a potential 13% annual rise in revenues and 16% rise in EPS over the following 5 years of the company&#39;s growth plan.</p><p>This, I believe, will easily outperform the broader market and offer investors a decent exposure to several fast growing markets in a region of the world which is becoming increasingly difficult to get without restrictions.</p><p>This investment does not come without risks, especially of delisting, but other excellent Seeking Alpha contributors have dissected the prospects of delisting and I won&#39;t bore you with repeating them here for the 10th time.</p><p>I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and have been and will continue to, add to my position over the course of the next few weeks if the share price remains where it is now.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Investment Of The Decade As Expansion Drives Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-19 19:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.With ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535620-alibaba-investment-of-the-decade-as-expansion-drives-growth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142247584","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba Group has faced a volatile few years with regulatory crackdowns in both China and the United States, but has found some stability as its core business remains unaffected.With international expansion being the company's major revenue growth driver, I believe they will easily outperform current growth expectations, leading to a more stable company.Their efforts to increase their per-user income on their merchant and commerce platforms is driving margin expansion, adding to my increasingly bullish stance.I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and believe they will easily outperform if you're willing to take on the risks for the next 5 to 10 years.Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and its share price have been in a whirlwind environment as Chinese regulatory authorities began cracking down on technology companies and potential growth disruptors emerged. About a year later, there have been signs that this crackdownis easing as regulatory agencies took a step back and are now focusing on companies who are violating specific business practices, which Alibaba, for the most part, does not partake in.However, after the company's share price stabilized, US regulatory authorities began evaluating Chinese owned companies which were listed in the United States on US-based exchanges for possible delisting. This sent the company's share price back down towards the levels it was at during the Chinese crackdown. As no material changes to its structure or its growth prospects took place over the course of this event, I continue to believe in the company's resiliency and that current valuations present a unique investment opportunity for folks who are patient and can wait through a lot of high-profile noise which is nearly certain to emerge as the world's two economic superpowers collide.Overall, there are certainly risks associated with this investment and any investment in a company which is under scrutiny and potential delisting, but for me - the reward is easily worth the risk at this point in time.Here are the reasons why.Revenue Growth Is SteadyAlibaba has so many revenue streams and programs that it would take several articles to go through them all, as their650 page 20-F(foreign company version of 10K) shows. But there are several revenue streams of theirs which I believe constitute an outsized portion of their growth prospects. Let's zero in.The first one is theircloud business. While cloud computing is continuing to replace a significant portion of the worlds standard IT infrastructure, the company is focused on not only maximizing their cloud business in the People's Republic of China but also looking at international markets, particularly in Eastern Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, to continue and grow this business. Getting in the door early in a lot of these other countries, before they fully become a developed nation status and garner outside investments, is key to maintaining a long term presence.The company also has another advantage, similar to Amazon (AMZN) in the United States - their cloud margins are so large that they use those profits to subsidize other expansion opportunities like their retail and commerce business expansion. Another plus is that since their margins are so large after all the infrastructure investment they put in, they have a much lower potential price point than other competitors in the Asia-Pacific region and can win cloud contracts which will aid their overall expansion efforts.The second part is the retail and commerce business. I realize that these 2 business segments amount to a majority of their revenues, but they also amount to the largest portion of their expansion potential. Allowing merchants in other Asia-Pacific region nations to seamlessly sell their products and run their small businesses across the region and the world is a huge plus and as these nations become more and more of economic powerhouses, the company is set to reap the benefits of these early investments.The company has been investing in deploying resources and building infrastructure in other regions across the world, as well as partnering with local tech and retail companies to provide their services. This, I believe, will be a big part of enabling their continued high-pace growth, even as they've begun to saturate in the People's Republic of China with their commerce platform.What It Means For 2030(ish)Alibaba Group, according toanalyst estimates aggregated by Seeking Alpha, is projected to report revenues which are higher by about 63% by 2028, rising from $134 billion, the projected figure for this upcoming year, to just shy of $218 billion.This represents a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 10.2% over the next 5 years when it comes to the company's revenues. Translating that to earnings shows how the company's investment are going to pay off, while they continue to work on expanding their per-user revenues which drives profits.Over the same time period, the company is projected to report a 94% bump in EPS, rising from a projected $7.34 in the upcoming fiscal year to $14.29 in 2028. This represent a CAGR of 14.2% over the next 5 years.There are a few reasons for this, with the most important one being margin expansion.Margins Expected To IncreaseEven though the company has already admitted that their user base, comprised of over 1 billion monthly average users in the People's Republic of China, is relatively saturated - they're working on expanding the per-wallet revenue, which translated to higher profits as costs for those users are already accounted for in most scenarios across their commerce platforms.These are two of the main reasons I believe the company is set to outperform these expectations - I don't believe that analysts consensus, linked earlier, fully account for the company's international expansion efforts and that an increased revenue base may mean that short term margins will contract - the longer term margins are set to outperform as revenues increase and thus long term growth is set to outperform.This means that a company which is currently expected to report higher margins, as evident by the higher CAGR in earnings vs revenues, is expected to, I believe, report faster growing earnings per share figures starting 2 to 3 years from now due to their international expansion efforts. This means that they are highly likely to outperform the historical annual market performance of roughly 10%. There's also another benefit I believe other companies with higher debt loads are going to begin to face which Alibaba will not.Interest Expense ControlAs interest rates continue to rise all around the world, Alibaba is using their cash pile to control the increase of debt and refinance their existing debt to lower overall interest expense. Even though the company's overall debt payments and interest expense are almost negligible relative to their income, the focus on this now can potentially save them several billions of dollars a year over the next decade, which can be used to increase shareholder value and help them compete for new users in new international markets.After peaking in 2018 with the company paying $612 million a year in interest expense, they've seen a steady reduction every year since and now pay $504 million a year in interest expense.From 2020 to 2021, the company took on a nice new chunk of debt, rising from just shy of $17 billion to about $20.7 billion. Since then, it has remained relatively steady as they currently have about $20.6 billion in long term debt. They've refinanced some of that debt and worked to raise money in more friendly means to avoid the rising interest rate environment.As the company has a significant cash pile, I believe they can continue and work to reduce their debt pile to help with valuation, but given the low overall interest rate they pay, it's not as much of a priority, as long as it doesn't substantially increase.Valuation vs ExpectationsCurrently, the company is trading at about 7x to 12x forward earnings, depending on how far out you go. Given that I believe that international expansion may keep margins at currently projected levels, I am opting to look at revenue multiples for the next 5 years to find an adequate valuation.Comparing the company to Amazon is the most obvious choice given the similarity of their business structures and segments. Amazon is currently trading at about 2.8x forward sales for the upcoming year and 1.5x forward sales for 2028 projected sales. The companies have more or less a similar revenue growth rate projection but Alibaba is trading at a significantly lower multiple.202320242025202620272028Alibaba+5.9%+13.6%+11.5%+10.7%+7.2%+8.4%1.8x1.6x1.4x1.3x1.2x1.1xAmazon+11.2%+15.4%+14.6%+12.3%+13.4%+12.7%2.8x2.4x2.1x1.9x1.7x1.5x(Source: Seeking Alpha Aggregate - Analyst Projections -BABA&AMZN)An easier way to look at it is the percentage of Alibaba's growth relative to Amazon's, which although it shows that certain years may be comparable, most are not and thus Alibaba, under current projections, should be trading higher.202320242025202620272028Growth52.7%88.3%78.8%89.0%53.7%66.1%Multiple64.3%66.7%66.7%68.4%70.6%73.3%Conclusion - Cheap & ValuableGiven that the aforementioned comparison to Amazon concludes that under their current projections, Alibaba is set to spend the upcoming year slightly overvalued relative to Amazon, it will spend the following 3 at a significantly lower one. This is before my expected outperformance when it comes to international expansion efforts alongside their margin expansion from working to increase their per-user revenue streams.The later out projections are still there, but that's where I expect Alibaba to do their best once their international margins expand towards their domestic ones. I believe that by 2028, the company will be outperforming their current revenue expectations by about 20% and current earnings per share expectations by about 15%, representing a potential 13% annual rise in revenues and 16% rise in EPS over the following 5 years of the company's growth plan.This, I believe, will easily outperform the broader market and offer investors a decent exposure to several fast growing markets in a region of the world which is becoming increasingly difficult to get without restrictions.This investment does not come without risks, especially of delisting, but other excellent Seeking Alpha contributors have dissected the prospects of delisting and I won't bore you with repeating them here for the 10th time.I remain highly bullish on Alibaba and have been and will continue to, add to my position over the course of the next few weeks if the share price remains where it is now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077736453,"gmtCreate":1658577135972,"gmtModify":1676536178609,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077736453","repostId":"2253060339","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2253060339","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1658541519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2253060339?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-23 09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Going Up? It Might Depend on the Definition of Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2253060339","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Not since Bill Clinton testified about the meaning of the word \"is\" has so much hinged on the meanin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Not since Bill Clinton testified about the meaning of the word &#34;is&#34; has so much hinged on the meaning of one simple word.</p><p>The word is &#34; recession,&#34; and defining one isn&#39;t easy. It&#39;s usually up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine when one has started, but it often takes so long that the slowdown is over by the time one is declared. Others point to the technical definition of two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth -- something that could be declared as soon as this coming Thursday, when second-quarter gross domestic product is released. (The Atlanta Fed&#39;s GDP Now tool is indicating a potential contraction of 1.6%, the same as in the first quarter.)</p><p>This isn&#39;t merely semantics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2% this past week, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite notched a 3.3% gain. Whether or not we&#39;re in a recession, have already had one, or are heading into one isn&#39;t irrelevant when trying to interpret the stock market&#39;s gains.</p><p>If the technical definition of two consecutive down quarters is correct, then the economy is probably in a recession -- and it may be almost over. If that&#39;s the case, then it could be argued that the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 24% drop from its January peak through its June low was the stock market reflecting the slowdown -- and the bottom wasn&#39;t just a bottom, but the bottom. Optimists could -- and will -- argue that the index&#39;s 8% rally since the June low is the start of a new bull market.</p><p>But the two-quarter rule might fall short in this case. Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James&#39; private client group, notes that the first quarter&#39;s decline was driven by a massive amount of imports relative to exports, while the second quarter&#39;s decline -- if, in fact, there was one -- will have been driven not by a lack of business activity but a drawdown of inventories. &#34;Even if the 2Q GDP is negative, it is premature to say the U.S. economy is in a recession,&#34; Adam writes.</p><p>There can be no doubt that the economy is weakening, perhaps to a worrisome extent. This past Friday, we learned that the Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index, which accounts for both services and manufacturing, fell to 47.5, below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The Conference Board&#39;s leading indicators also turned negative, while jobless claims continue to rise.</p><p>&#34;If you have a monetary-policy-driven road to recession, it happens slowly, then suddenly,&#34; says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p>It&#39;s now up to the Federal Reserve to determine where the economy goes next, says John Silvia, who writes the Dynamic Economic Strategy newsletter. On one hand, the Fed could decide to keep fighting inflation until its target is reached, leading to a recession that lasts four quarters or more. It could also decide enough is enough, in which case the economy keeps growing, but inflation gets stuck around 4% to 5%. &#34;[It&#39;s a] very complex give/take process with no simple linear solutions, &#34; Silva says.</p><p>Don&#39;t expect the stock market to go in a straight line either.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Going Up? It Might Depend on the Definition of Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Going Up? It Might Depend on the Definition of Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-23 09:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Not since Bill Clinton testified about the meaning of the word &#34;is&#34; has so much hinged on the meaning of one simple word.</p><p>The word is &#34; recession,&#34; and defining one isn&#39;t easy. It&#39;s usually up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine when one has started, but it often takes so long that the slowdown is over by the time one is declared. Others point to the technical definition of two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth -- something that could be declared as soon as this coming Thursday, when second-quarter gross domestic product is released. (The Atlanta Fed&#39;s GDP Now tool is indicating a potential contraction of 1.6%, the same as in the first quarter.)</p><p>This isn&#39;t merely semantics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2% this past week, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite notched a 3.3% gain. Whether or not we&#39;re in a recession, have already had one, or are heading into one isn&#39;t irrelevant when trying to interpret the stock market&#39;s gains.</p><p>If the technical definition of two consecutive down quarters is correct, then the economy is probably in a recession -- and it may be almost over. If that&#39;s the case, then it could be argued that the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 24% drop from its January peak through its June low was the stock market reflecting the slowdown -- and the bottom wasn&#39;t just a bottom, but the bottom. Optimists could -- and will -- argue that the index&#39;s 8% rally since the June low is the start of a new bull market.</p><p>But the two-quarter rule might fall short in this case. Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James&#39; private client group, notes that the first quarter&#39;s decline was driven by a massive amount of imports relative to exports, while the second quarter&#39;s decline -- if, in fact, there was one -- will have been driven not by a lack of business activity but a drawdown of inventories. &#34;Even if the 2Q GDP is negative, it is premature to say the U.S. economy is in a recession,&#34; Adam writes.</p><p>There can be no doubt that the economy is weakening, perhaps to a worrisome extent. This past Friday, we learned that the Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index, which accounts for both services and manufacturing, fell to 47.5, below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The Conference Board&#39;s leading indicators also turned negative, while jobless claims continue to rise.</p><p>&#34;If you have a monetary-policy-driven road to recession, it happens slowly, then suddenly,&#34; says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p>It&#39;s now up to the Federal Reserve to determine where the economy goes next, says John Silvia, who writes the Dynamic Economic Strategy newsletter. On one hand, the Fed could decide to keep fighting inflation until its target is reached, leading to a recession that lasts four quarters or more. It could also decide enough is enough, in which case the economy keeps growing, but inflation gets stuck around 4% to 5%. &#34;[It&#39;s a] very complex give/take process with no simple linear solutions, &#34; Silva says.</p><p>Don&#39;t expect the stock market to go in a straight line either.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2253060339","content_text":"Not since Bill Clinton testified about the meaning of the word \"is\" has so much hinged on the meaning of one simple word.The word is \" recession,\" and defining one isn't easy. It's usually up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine when one has started, but it often takes so long that the slowdown is over by the time one is declared. Others point to the technical definition of two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth -- something that could be declared as soon as this coming Thursday, when second-quarter gross domestic product is released. (The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tool is indicating a potential contraction of 1.6%, the same as in the first quarter.)This isn't merely semantics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2% this past week, while the S&P 500 was up 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite notched a 3.3% gain. Whether or not we're in a recession, have already had one, or are heading into one isn't irrelevant when trying to interpret the stock market's gains.If the technical definition of two consecutive down quarters is correct, then the economy is probably in a recession -- and it may be almost over. If that's the case, then it could be argued that the S&P 500's 24% drop from its January peak through its June low was the stock market reflecting the slowdown -- and the bottom wasn't just a bottom, but the bottom. Optimists could -- and will -- argue that the index's 8% rally since the June low is the start of a new bull market.But the two-quarter rule might fall short in this case. Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James' private client group, notes that the first quarter's decline was driven by a massive amount of imports relative to exports, while the second quarter's decline -- if, in fact, there was one -- will have been driven not by a lack of business activity but a drawdown of inventories. \"Even if the 2Q GDP is negative, it is premature to say the U.S. economy is in a recession,\" Adam writes.There can be no doubt that the economy is weakening, perhaps to a worrisome extent. This past Friday, we learned that the Markit Composite Purchasing Managers Index, which accounts for both services and manufacturing, fell to 47.5, below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction. The Conference Board's leading indicators also turned negative, while jobless claims continue to rise.\"If you have a monetary-policy-driven road to recession, it happens slowly, then suddenly,\" says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.It's now up to the Federal Reserve to determine where the economy goes next, says John Silvia, who writes the Dynamic Economic Strategy newsletter. On one hand, the Fed could decide to keep fighting inflation until its target is reached, leading to a recession that lasts four quarters or more. It could also decide enough is enough, in which case the economy keeps growing, but inflation gets stuck around 4% to 5%. \"[It's a] very complex give/take process with no simple linear solutions, \" Silva says.Don't expect the stock market to go in a straight line either.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079393156,"gmtCreate":1657150487975,"gmtModify":1676535957551,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079393156","repostId":"1130426171","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130426171","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657132064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130426171?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 02:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Federal Reserve Officials Saw Potential to Be More Hawkish If Inflation Persists","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130426171","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to fight inflation even if it meant slowing an","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to fight inflation even if it meant slowing an economy that already appears on the brink of a recession, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.</p><p>Members said the July meeting likely also would see another 50- or 75-basis point move. A basis point is one one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.</p><p>“In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes stated. “In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.”</p><p>In raising benchmark borrowing rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, central bankers said the move was necessary to control cost-of-living increases running at their highest levels since 1981.</p><p>“Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist,” the document said.</p><p>They acknowledged that the policy tightening likely would come with a price.</p><p>“Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis,” the meeting summary stated.</p><p>The move to hike rates by 75 basis points followed an unusual sequence in which policymakers appeared to have a last-minute change of heart after saying for weeks that a 50 basis point move was almost certain.</p><p>Following data showing consumer prices running at an 8.6% 12-month rate and inflation expectations rising, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee chose the more stringent path.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Officials Saw Potential to Be More Hawkish If Inflation Persists</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Officials Saw Potential to Be More Hawkish If Inflation Persists\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-07 02:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to fight inflation even if it meant slowing an economy that already appears on the brink of a recession, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.</p><p>Members said the July meeting likely also would see another 50- or 75-basis point move. A basis point is one one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.</p><p>“In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes stated. “In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.”</p><p>In raising benchmark borrowing rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, central bankers said the move was necessary to control cost-of-living increases running at their highest levels since 1981.</p><p>“Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist,” the document said.</p><p>They acknowledged that the policy tightening likely would come with a price.</p><p>“Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis,” the meeting summary stated.</p><p>The move to hike rates by 75 basis points followed an unusual sequence in which policymakers appeared to have a last-minute change of heart after saying for weeks that a 50 basis point move was almost certain.</p><p>Following data showing consumer prices running at an 8.6% 12-month rate and inflation expectations rising, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee chose the more stringent path.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130426171","content_text":"Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to fight inflation even if it meant slowing an economy that already appears on the brink of a recession, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.Members said the July meeting likely also would see another 50- or 75-basis point move. A basis point is one one-hundredth of 1 percentage point.“In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes stated. “In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.”In raising benchmark borrowing rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, central bankers said the move was necessary to control cost-of-living increases running at their highest levels since 1981.“Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist,” the document said.They acknowledged that the policy tightening likely would come with a price.“Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis,” the meeting summary stated.The move to hike rates by 75 basis points followed an unusual sequence in which policymakers appeared to have a last-minute change of heart after saying for weeks that a 50 basis point move was almost certain.Following data showing consumer prices running at an 8.6% 12-month rate and inflation expectations rising, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee chose the more stringent path.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026946801,"gmtCreate":1653317492903,"gmtModify":1676535259541,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026946801","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237884509","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653291757,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237884509?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How To Invest In A Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237884509","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their st","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.</li><li>Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.</li><li>Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.</li><li>Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.</li><li>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170860a23786e0a4eea90ff2945b8176\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>pictafolio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p>Being an optimist is a superpower.</p><p>That&#39;s particularly true in times like these.</p><p>After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&amp;P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3413a72f37c75d776401480b027f03e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>If this sell-off is a typical market correction like we&#39;ve seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.</p><p>Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&amp;P 500 bear markets since 1950:</p><blockquote><i>Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-and-a-half years to break even.</i></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5a634d10eb4b4e139377eb46ea1f56f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>S&amp;P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)</span></p><p>So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we&#39;ll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we&#39;ll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don&#39;t plan to keep invested for at least five years.</p><p>A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn&#39;t sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it&#39;s temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:</p><blockquote><i>All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.</i></blockquote><p>Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall <i>another</i> 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.</p><p>If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn&#39;t feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:</p><blockquote><i>You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.</i></blockquote><p>The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.</p><p>You&#39;ll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They&#39;ll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.</i></blockquote><p>Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer&#39;s mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:</p><blockquote><i>A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.</i></blockquote><p>Easier said than done?</p><p>Let&#39;s review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.</p><p><b>1) Zoom out.</b></p><p>Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.</p><p>Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don&#39;t tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.</p><p>The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ab81195eb2e3587a7819d6957fa36be\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)</span></p><p>Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:</p><blockquote><i>[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.</i></blockquote><p>On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn&#39;t be able to predict how the stock market will react.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2ef9e05a6b3ae4e0c025e213670a60\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"735\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Recessions &amp; Expansions (Visual Capitalist)</span></p><p>Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can&#39;t help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.</p><p>As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Market drawdown</b></td><td><b>Historical Frequency</b></td></tr><tr><td>10%</td><td>Every 11 months</td></tr><tr><td>15%</td><td>Every 24 months</td></tr><tr><td>20%</td><td>Every four years</td></tr><tr><td>30%</td><td>Every decade</td></tr><tr><td>40%</td><td>Every few decades</td></tr><tr><td>50%</td><td>2-3 times per century</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Again, the S&amp;P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it&#39;s possible but also unlikely. We just don&#39;t know.</p><p>That&#39;s why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool&#39;s errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for <i>sustainability</i> and <i>survivability</i>.</p><p><b>2) Document your decisions.</b></p><p>In his book <i>The Money Game</i>, Adam Smith explained:</p><blockquote><i>If you don&#39;t know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.</i></blockquote><p>Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That&#39;s true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.</p><p>The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the &#34;cycle of emotions&#34; that comes with the market&#39;s ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I&#39;m in denial).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73d884d2790a7a799b1fbbb5aecbbd42\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"794\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)</span></p><p>I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio&#39;s returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.</p><p>Journaling is the closest thing you&#39;ll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.</p><ul><li>Why do you invest?</li><li>What is your time horizon?</li><li>What is your investment philosophy?</li><li>Why are you bullish about this company?</li><li>Is there something that would break your thesis?</li><li>What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?</li></ul><p>Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.</p><p>We are already in a downturn, so you don&#39;t have this luxury anymore. But it&#39;s not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?</p><p>In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process &#34;on hold&#34; because red days take a toll on them.</p><p>Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you&#39;re doing wrong, but also with what you&#39;re doing right.</p><p>Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.</p><p>Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as <i>fear of joining in</i> or <i>missing out</i> (another topic I&#39;ve covered more in-depth here).</p><p>As someone managing an investment marketplace, I&#39;ve seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they &#34;felt&#34; like there wasn&#39;t much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:</p><blockquote><i>The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.</i></blockquote><p>If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to &#34;sleep on it&#34; and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.</p><p>There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don&#39;t have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night&#39;s sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.</p><p><b>3) Automate and stick to your plan.</b></p><p>Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.</p><p>I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:</p><ol><li>I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).</li><li>I don&#39;t add to losers (fighting prospect theory).</li><li>I don&#39;t sell winners (staying the course).</li><li>I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).</li></ol><p>I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.</p><p>These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:</p><ul><li>It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).</li><li>It <i>forces me to invest</i> every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.</li><li>It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, <i>easing my way</i> in the market (spreading investments over time).</li><li>It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.</li></ul><p>I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.</p><p>In his book <i>The Psychology of Money</i>, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being <i>rational</i> vs. <i>reasonable</i>. A <i>rational</i> decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.</p><p>However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is <i>reasonable</i> for you.</p><p>The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That&#39;s why portfolio suitability is so essential.</p><p>Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.</p><p>Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer&#39;s remorse when the market continues to fall.</p><p>I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4a94ee08348304e119c97815f86b055\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)</span></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).</p><p>It doesn&#39;t matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.</p><p><b>4) Be selective and focus on quality</b></p><p>A bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you&#39;ve wanted to own for a long time but couldn&#39;t because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that&#39;s where your focus should be.</p><p>Again, I wouldn&#39;t bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn&#39;t get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.</p><p>Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn&#39;t be shocking to see a stock fall <i>another</i> 30% right after you buy it. That&#39;s the cost of doing business. If you don&#39;t have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.</p><p>Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.</p><p><b>What is a high-quality business, you ask?</b></p><p>I modernized Philip Fisher&#39;s Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:</p><ol><li>Large addressable market.</li><li>Future growth initiatives.</li><li>Effective research and development.</li><li>Effective sales &amp; marketing.</li><li>Worthwhile profit margins.</li><li>Improving profit margins.</li><li>Strong culture.</li><li>High insider ownership.</li><li>Management team depth.</li><li>Consistent reporting.</li><li>Sustainable competitive advantages.</li><li>Long-term vision.</li><li>Financial fortitude.</li><li>Transparent management.</li><li>Ethical management.</li></ol><p>I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.</p><p>The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d506ce6743c74db3df117a557fac5019\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Our north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.</p><p>It&#39;s essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That&#39;s why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.</p><p>I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a> (SQ), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.</p><p>I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you&#39;ve had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the &#34;flavor of the month.&#34; For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well &#34;now&#34; or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.</p><p>Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.</p><p>The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.</p><p>In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won&#39;t pass this filter. And that&#39;s a good thing.</p><p><b>5) Be patient. This too shall pass.</b></p><p>It&#39;s not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.</p><p>What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that&#39;s what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:</p><blockquote><i>Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.</i></blockquote><p>As Charlie Munger explained:</p><blockquote><i>It&#39;s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can&#39;t stand to wait. If you didn&#39;t get the deferred-gratification gene, you&#39;ve got to work very hard to overcome that.</i></blockquote><p>So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you&#39;ve genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don&#39;t sell until I&#39;ve held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It&#39;s an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.</p><p>Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That&#39;s right, doing nothing at all.</p><p>Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don&#39;t go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.</p><p>You&#39;ll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don&#39;t find it particularly insightful. It&#39;s the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.</p><p>There <i>are</i> periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn&#39;t suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life&#39;s savings at the market top in 2000.</p><p>Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.</p><p><b>Final Word</b></p><p>A bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:</p><ol><li><b>Zoom out</b>. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.</li><li><b>Document your decisions</b>. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.</li><li><b>Automate and stick to your plan</b>. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.</li><li><b>Be selective</b>. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.</li><li><b>Be patient. This too shall pass</b>. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we&#39;ll all come out stronger on the other side.</li></ol><p><b>What about you?</b></p><ul><li>How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?</li><li>Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?</li><li>Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?</li></ul><p>Let me know in the comments!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How To Invest In A Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow To Invest In A Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-23 15:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513563-how-to-invest-in-a-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237884509","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bear market, ~20% off its peak.Many high-quality businesses have their stock down more than 50%.Bear markets feel like a risk as we go through them, but they appear as an opportunity in retrospect.Emotions run high, but fortune favors the patient.Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.pictafolio/E+ via Getty ImagesBeing an optimist is a superpower.That's particularly true in times like these.After another week in the house of pain, the Nasdaq (QQQ) is down 30% from its previous high. Meanwhile, the S&P 5000 (SPY) is 20% off its peak, a threshold that would characterize a bear market.Data by YChartsIf this sell-off is a typical market correction like we've seen in 2018 or 2020, we may be near the bottom. However, if this is the start of a prolonged bear market, watch below.Ben Carlson shared on his blog (A Wealth Of Common Sense) the history of S&P 500 bear markets since 1950:Over 15 bear markets, the average downturn is a loss of 30%, lasting just under a year to reach the bottom and taking a little more than one-and-a-half years to break even.S&P Bear Markets Since 1950 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)So if we are currently going through an average bear market, we'll reach the bottom toward the end of 2022, and we'll be back at the previous high by July 2023. It could be shorter, or it could be longer. There is no way to know.It's important to note that only three bear markets took significantly longer to recover: 1973, 2000, and 2008. These were outliers (3 out of 15 bear markets). Each time, it took more than four years to get back to even. As a result, I would never invest money in stocks that I don't plan to keep invested for at least five years.A temporary 20% or 30% sell-off doesn't sound bad on paper because the premise assumes it's temporary. But in the middle of a bear market, our brains tend to extrapolate and think it will get worse (which may or may not be true). Morgan Housel explained in a blog post:All past declines look like opportunities and all future declines look like risks. It’s one of the great ironies in investing. But it happens for a reason: When studying history you know how the story ends, and it’s impossible to un-remember what you know today when thinking about the past. So it’s hard to imagine alternative outcomes when looking backward, but when looking ahead you know there are a thousand different paths we could end up on.Today, chances are you care more about whether stocks will fall another 20% or start rebounding soon. However, many years from now, what will matter is probably to have been a net buyer of stocks throughout this entire period.If you are in the wealth accumulation phase of your life, with a regular paycheck and monthly savings to invest, a bear market is something to celebrate. However, it certainly doesn't feel good, particularly when your existing portfolio shrinks by the day. Shelby Cullom Davis said:You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.The greatest challenge in moments like these is to stay the course and not blow up your brokerage account. To do so, being an optimist goes a long way.You'll come across perma-bears who believe the stock market is about to enter the worst period ever seen. They'll say that earnings are about to fall, and we may enter a recession like no other. Peter Lynch explained:“This one is different,” is the doomsayer’s litany, and, in fact, every recession is different, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to ruin us.Ultimately, market downturns are a great time to buy stocks. Valuations have cooled off, and future returns look better today than in many years. So having a buyer's mentality in the face of a market meltdown is essential. Warren Buffett explained:A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.Easier said than done?Let's review the playbook to go through a bear market unscathed.1) Zoom out.Great long-term investing is 1% buying and 99% waiting.Unfortunately, many investors feel lazy if they don't tinker with their portfolios regularly. Instead, a disciplined investor should look beyond the short-term concerns.The past few decades had their fair share of inflation, rising interest rates, wars, and recessions. Yet, looking at the performance of the MSCI World Index in the past 50 years can help gain some perspective. One dollar invested in 1970 would have grown to $68 by 2018. And the journey to get there was filled with bear markets of all kinds. Yet, staying invested through thick and thin led to an excellent outcome.Growth of $1 in the past 70 years (WealthSmart)Many investors believe they can time in and out of the market based on macro factors. However, the market is forward-looking and tends to rebound long before an individual investor would feel ready to get back in. Peter Lynch explained:[...] every economic recovery since World War II has been preceded by a stock market rally. And these rallies often start when conditions are grim.On average, recessions last 11 months (vs. 67 months for economic expansions). The take-away from the chart below should be obvious. Why would you spend your time preparing for recessions? They are relatively short and unpredictable. And even with perfect information about the economy, you wouldn't be able to predict how the stock market will react.Recessions & Expansions (Visual Capitalist)Despite history telling us that trading in and out of stocks is a weapon of alpha destruction, some investors can't help themselves. Again, market timing is a lovely idea in concept. But nobody can predict market tops and bottoms repeatedly with accuracy.As explained in my article about 5 Ways To Prepare for The Next Stock Market Crash, recognizing how often market crashes happen can give you a better idea of what you are getting into when investing in equities. Here is the historical frequency of pullbacks identified since 1928:Market drawdownHistorical Frequency10%Every 11 months15%Every 24 months20%Every four years30%Every decade40%Every few decades50%2-3 times per centuryAgain, the S&P 500 is already 20% off its peak. And it would be silly to expect all market sell-offs will turn into the Great Depression. We have already had two bear markets of epic proportion in the past two decades, and our instinct is to assume more of the same. History tells us that it's possible but also unlikely. We just don't know.That's why great investing starts with humility. Once we accept that the future is uncertain and that trying to predict it is a fool's errand, we are more likely to adapt our strategy for sustainability and survivability.2) Document your decisions.In his book The Money Game, Adam Smith explained:If you don't know who you are, [the stock market] is an expensive place to find out.Despite our best intentions, we can still fail. That's true of most things in life. Being married or parenting are perfect examples. Many of us can fail when it matters the most to have everything under control. Investing is no different.The biggest challenge in a market contraction is to manage our emotions. I shared with App Economy Portfolio members a version of the \"cycle of emotions\" that comes with the market's ups and downs. It feels like we are likely somewhere between panic and capitulation (though you could suggest I'm in denial).Psychology of Market Cycle (Wall St. Cheat Sheet)I covered before how your temperament is the single greatest factor in your portfolio's returns. There are many ways to fight our natural flaws and avoid the pitfalls we can easily fall for. I believe the most potent tool is journaling.Journaling is the closest thing you'll ever have to a drill in investing. While NBA players can shoot free throws all day long, the only way you can practice is by writing down your strategy, goals, and rationale.Why do you invest?What is your time horizon?What is your investment philosophy?Why are you bullish about this company?Is there something that would break your thesis?What will you do if the market falls and your portfolio along with it?Success comes with homework and preparation. These are not questions you want to answer after the fact. The more you set yourself up with the right mindset ingrained in your brain, the higher your chance of averting a crisis in the heat of the moment.We are already in a downturn, so you don't have this luxury anymore. But it's not too late. If you feel the urge to tinker with your portfolio on a big red day, can you first write down what compels you to do so? Is there truly a call to action, or are you reacting to headlines and market movements?In a down market, investors tend to trade too much. They buy too much too fast in the early phase of a downturn and end up with no dry powder when the market continues to fall. Or they put their entire investment process \"on hold\" because red days take a toll on them.Documenting the reasoning behind your investment decisions and keeping score is a fantastic way to stay honest with yourself. To do so, keeping an investment log or trading journal is the easiest way. I use free apps like Google Keep and Google Sheet that sync between all my devices (desktop and mobile). It can help you identify a pattern, not only with what you're doing wrong, but also with what you're doing right.Another instant benefit of journaling is to learn about yourself. You will see when you were wrong and why and will be more likely to accept blame for it. You are also more likely to see your performance for what it truly is, identifying luck and brilliance wherever they apply.Relying on your feelings is a common investment mistake in a volatile market. And unless you are willing to identify it and address them, your emotions will eventually get in the way. We are influenced by fear and greed, often better described as fear of joining in or missing out (another topic I've covered more in-depth here).As someone managing an investment marketplace, I've seen many members come to me and tell me that they had sold a position because they \"felt\" like there wasn't much upside to a stock. In investing, the less your feelings are involved, the better off you are. As perfectly put by Peter Lynch:The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.If your decision to buy or sell cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. However, a great long-term investment decision should not require perfect timing. Unless you are in the business of day trading, you should always be able to \"sleep on it\" and let a day go by before you pull the trigger on your investment decision.There is no rush to make investment decisions. A thesis should not depend on what could happen within hours or minutes. If bad news comes out and a stock you own is down 50%, you don't have to sell that day, even if your bullish thesis is broken. Instead, you might want to digest the news and make sure you grasp the ins and outs of a new situation. If your intentions are intact after a good night's sleep, your decision is more likely to be sensible and grounded as opposed to a knee-jerk reaction.3) Automate and stick to your plan.Your performance as an investor depends primarily on what you do during periods of high volatility. As a result, using a systematic investment strategy can be a powerful tool.I use 4 Simple Rules to protect my portfolio:I invest a fixed amount monthly (consistency).I don't add to losers (fighting prospect theory).I don't sell winners (staying the course).I invest for no less than five years (time horizon).I get to decide every month which stocks represent the best opportunities based on fundamentals and valuations. Still, the day I invest, and the amount I invest are already pre-determined based on my rules and process.These safeguards make my investment journey incredibly easy to maintain in all market conditions. And it helps me maintain a balanced approach under all circumstances:It limits the maximum amount I can add to an individual stock (diversification over several positions).It forces me to invest every month of the year, even when everyone else is in panic mode.It limits the total amount I can invest in a single month, easing my way in the market (spreading investments over time).It keeps me invested through the vicissitudes of the market.I tried to answer a simple question in a previous article: How many stocks should you own? I tried to explain that the right number is different for everyone.In his book The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel explained the difference between being rational vs. reasonable. A rational decision means making a decision strictly based on what the facts and the numbers say. It all sounds great in concept. The implication is that you let the data decide for you.However, being rational is not always a realistic approach. We all have emotions at play that can get in the way of a sound plan. Sometimes, what would make the most sense for you will differ from the most rational decision. So, instead, you need to define what is reasonable for you.The proper diversification is the one that keeps you in the game over multiple market cycles. That's why portfolio suitability is so essential.Once you have defined a plan that suits you and have an automated system to keep it in place, you are unstoppable.Not everyone has the luxury of having capital available to invest every month, so I want to touch on cash deployment strategies. Maybe you have cash on the sidelines, and you wonder when or how to put it to use. Unfortunately, many investors go all-in at first sight of a market pullback of a few percentage points, only to feel buyer's remorse when the market continues to fall.I love this blog post from Morgan Housel covering his cash deployment strategy in the context of a market drawdown. He shows how much of a theoretical $1,000 in cash set aside for investing he would deploy based on how much the market has sold off.Morgan Housel Cash Deployment Strategy (The Motley Fool)The S&P 500 is down 20%, so Morgan would invest ~60% of his cash reserve (keeping the remaining 40% in case of a more significant sell-off).It doesn't matter what exact number you use. What matters is to define a plan and stick to it. In investing, consistency wins the game.4) Be selective and focus on qualityA bear market is a perfect opportunity to invest in a stock you've wanted to own for a long time but couldn't because of valuation concerns or because it was running away from you. I believe that's where your focus should be.Again, I wouldn't bet the farm and invest all at once (as explained above), but it doesn't get better than slowly accumulating shares of great businesses while they are on sale.Of course, we have to hold our noses. Stocks could have more to fall in a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. As a result, it wouldn't be shocking to see a stock fall another 30% right after you buy it. That's the cost of doing business. If you don't have the stomach for it, you are better off focusing exclusively on index funds or letting someone else manage it for you.Since the market tends to sell indiscriminately during a bear market, it gives us a fantastic opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses.What is a high-quality business, you ask?I modernized Philip Fisher's Scuttlebutt common-stock checklist:Large addressable market.Future growth initiatives.Effective research and development.Effective sales & marketing.Worthwhile profit margins.Improving profit margins.Strong culture.High insider ownership.Management team depth.Consistent reporting.Sustainable competitive advantages.Long-term vision.Financial fortitude.Transparent management.Ethical management.I would emphasize financial fortitude and cash flow in the current macro environment, given the potential for a liquidity crisis.The largest companies driving the US indices higher in the past decade have been incredible cash-flow machines. Apple (AAPL) crossed $100B in free cash flow in the past 12 months. Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are not far behind.Data by YChartsOur north star is finding the businesses that can follow a similar path in the decades ahead. And only companies that can survive and thrive in a crisis will be able to get there.It's essential to understand what you invest in to stay invested when the inevitable setback occurs. Borrowing from Peter Lynch, I realized I had a clear advantage through my experience at PwC and my decade-long tenure as a financial executive in the gaming industry. That's why my focus has been on the App Economy in the past decade.I recently shared on Seeking Alpha why I like companies like Airbnb (ABNB), Block (SQ), and Datadog (DDOG), particularly after their massive sell-offs in the past few months. Of course, these are only examples, but they check most of the boxes listed above.I believe this bear market is an excellent opportunity to reflect on what you've had on your watch list for a very long time. However, I would be mindful of not falling for the \"flavor of the month.\" For example, I see many articles about investing in energy stocks these days, which are cyclical and represent a tiny portion of the economy. There is also a risk of investing in specific stocks because they are expected to do well \"now\" or in the next few weeks. If you invest in companies solely based on how they might perform in the here and now, you are likely shortening your time horizon, leading to overtrading and unnecessary tax inefficiencies.Building up positions in your winners is also a sound investment philosophy during a downturn. I covered the art of adding to your winners when I explained why I was adding to my position in MongoDB (MDB) in 2019.The great businesses that sit at the top of your portfolio are the same as before any market meltdown, and they will still be the same after the storm passes. In the short term, stock performance can be detached from the underlying business, both in up and down markets.In my article about 7 Rules For An Antifragile Portfolio, I discuss the importance of seeking low-downside, high-upside payoffs. Borrowing from Peter Thiel in his book Zero to One, I discussed the idea of only investing in companies that have the potential to beat all of your other investments combined. While this idea may sound romantic at first, it can be very effective. By setting the expectation that your next pick needs to have the potential to beat the performance of all your other investments combined, you are setting the bar extremely high and challenging your own goal. Most stocks won't pass this filter. And that's a good thing.5) Be patient. This too shall pass.It's not fun to watch a portfolio collapse in real-time. Whenever a new sell-off occurs, we are all back in the grind, trying to get our accounts to all-time highs. While setbacks always feel painful, rising to the challenge is critical.What prevents many investors from keeping a steady hand in a time of hardship is the daunting thought of waiting for years before the portfolio has a shot at hitting a new high again. But that's what investing is all about. As American economist Paul Samuelson wrote:Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.As Charlie Munger explained:It's waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can't stand to wait. If you didn't get the deferred-gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that.So before you re-balance your portfolio or throw in the towel on what may become a significant missed opportunity, you want to ask yourself if you've genuinely given enough time for your investments to flourish. Unless my bullish thesis is broken, I don't sell until I've held a position for at least five years since my last purchase. It's an effective safeguard to ignore the noise of missed guidances, lower target prices from analysts, or negative headlines of the day.Because emotions run high after a series of red days, the best course of action is often to sit on your hands. That's right, doing nothing at all.Only with the discipline of staying invested through thick and thin will you benefit from the power of compounding over the years. Even the best-performing portfolios don't go up in a straight line. Investing is all about grinding through good and bad times with a mindset that remains onward and upward.You'll often hear about how it took almost 16 years for Microsoft (MSFT) to regain its 1999 high. This stretch was the worst in the US stock market history (two of the longest bear markets ever, almost back to back). So I don't find it particularly insightful. It's the ultimate cherry-picking, if you will.There are periods of 10 years with negative stock returns in the stock market. However, your portfolio wouldn't suffer from such misfortune unless you invested all of your life's savings at the market top in 2000.Recognizing that there is no urgency to act is essential. As I pointed out in many articles, if your next trade cannot wait for a few days, you are likely making an emotional decision. An investment should not depend on perfect timing or finding the exact bottom.Final WordA bear market is a unique opportunity to invest for the long term. The key is to give yourself the best chance to stay calm and make the best decisions:Zoom out. Market sell-offs are part of the investing process.Document your decisions. Are you reacting to the news cycle? Journaling and keeping score can help you work through your emotions.Automate and stick to your plan. A rule-based approach can help. Consistency wins, particularly in challenging times.Be selective. Focus on high-quality companies that can sustain the test of time and rarely offer a decent entry point.Be patient. This too shall pass. Sell-offs are part of the grind, and we'll all come out stronger on the other side.What about you?How are you holding up in the recent sell-off?Have you been watching your cash deployment with caution?Are you focusing on the best-of-breed businesses or chasing bargains?Let me know in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028699629,"gmtCreate":1653206496061,"gmtModify":1676535240510,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028699629","repostId":"2237089312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2237089312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1653201031,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2237089312?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-22 14:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Gets Interesting At $5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2237089312","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its dr","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Recently there have been many reports of &#34;smart money&#34; investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.</li><li>It&#39;s true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent quarter showed major deceleration.</li><li>The stock remains fairly expensive.</li><li>In this article, I rate Palantir a &#34;hold&#34; (neutral) and explain why I&#39;d switch that rating to &#34;buy&#34; at $5.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cbdef35ea2b08c8aeb69a0d8ba11ec\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><b>Palantir</b> (NYSE:PLTR) stock has been on a wild ride these last 12 months. It peaked close to $29 last year and is now at approximately $8. The stock had been sliding before this month’s earnings release. The release was a miss but, surprisingly, the stock rose in the weeks after it came out. After dipping 2.28% on the day of the release, PLTR recovered, rising 10.8% by Friday’s close.</p><p><b>Why did PLTR rise despite missing on earnings?</b></p><p>It might have had something to do with management’s statements. In the earnings call that took place after Palantir’s earnings release came out, CEO Alex Karp hit on all the right notes. Among other things, he said:</p><ul><li><p>Palantir is only doing $9 million worth of stock-based compensation this year.</p></li><li><p>The average Foundry customer spent $6.5 million on the service last year.</p></li><li><p>He has 100% of his own money invested in Palantir.</p></li></ul><p>These comments may have eased investors’ nerves. The last one, in particular, showed that Karp was 100% invested in his own company, indicating high conviction from an important insider.</p><p>Nevertheless, PLTR’s Q1 release provided some real causes for concern. It featured the company’s slowest revenue growth in years, as well as a GAAP net loss. 16% growth in government revenue was particularly concerning, as that segment has always been considered Palantir’s bread and butter. Given all of these concerns, I would hold off on buying PLTR stock for now. I do, however, think that there is a price at which the stock becomes interesting, and I will spend the remainder of this article explaining why $5 is that price.</p><p><b>Palantir’s Competitive Position</b></p><p>One of the reasons why Palantir has a non-zero value, despite its endless losses, is because of its competitive position. PLTR locks in government contracts with long lifespans, and it faces little competition in its niche. So, it has a significant amount of recurring revenue.</p><p>Many online services have attempted to come up with lists of Palantir competitors but most are not true “head to head” competitors. For example, Craft.co has a list of Palantir’s competitors, featuring some questionable inclusions. It lists:</p><ul><li><p>Tableau, a data visualization suite that does not include many of the features of Foundry and Gotham.</p></li><li><p><b>Cognizant</b> (CTSH) - an IT consulting company.</p></li></ul><p>These companies do offer data analytics, which makes them superficially similar to Palantir. However, they don’t offer comprehensive data platforms aimed mainly at Federal Government agencies, so they aren’t head-to-head competitors. However, a few possible contenders for “true competitors” stand out:</p><ul><li><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a></b> (IBM) - has numerous data platforms going after clients in the financial services sector, one of Palantir’s big client bases.</p></li><li><p><b>Tyler Technologies</b> (TYL) - a data service works with government clients.</p></li><li><p><b>Alteryx</b> (AYX) - a data platform that mostly works with private sector clients but does list some government clients on its case study page.</p></li></ul><p>The above are probably Palantir’s closest competitors. They resemble PLTR in some respects. However, they do not have Palantir’s specific expertise in managing data for intelligence and military operations. So, Palantir is uncontested in that sub-niche.</p><p>It’s a bit of a different story in the commercial part of Palantir’s business. In that space, PLTR faces dozens of competitors, and only has a 2.4% market share. Businesses that want general purpose data analytics have many options to choose from, so Palantir will have a harder time standing out in the commercial space.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>As I showed in the previous section, Palantir enjoys an admirable competitive position in providing data analytics for Military and Intelligence agencies. Its overall position in big data and machine learning is not mind blowing, but it at least has one niche locked down. This fact means that Palantir’s stock is not at risk of going to zero. Government revenue is extremely stable, as it’s backed by taxing authority, and Palantir’s government contracts last 3.5 years on average.</p><p>So, without a doubt, Palantir stock is worth some positive amount of money based on its fundamentals. As for how much it’s worth, we need to look at the stock’s valuation. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, PLTR trades at:</p><ul><li><p>67 times adjusted earnings.</p></li><li><p>9.7 times sales.</p></li><li><p>7 times book value.</p></li><li><p>65 times operating cash flow.</p></li></ul><p>These are frankly extremely high multiples these days. In 2021, at the height of the post-COVID bubble, numbers like these weren’t unheard-of. But this year, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and investors are taking a long, hard look at expensive companies. If you look at the stocks that have suffered notable 50%+ declines this year, it’s practically a who’s who of last year’s expensive tech stocks:</p><ul><li><p><b>Tesla</b> (TSLA).</p></li><li><p><b>Shopify</b> (SHOP).</p></li><li><p><b>Netflix</b> (NFLX).</p></li><li><p><b>Peloton</b> (PTON).</p></li></ul><p>PLTR, like these stocks, has gone down in price. However, its multiples remain high. Enough so that we might wonder whether it has further to fall. Additionally, PLTR’s revenue growth decelerated significantly in its most recent quarter–though it remained fairly high at 31%.</p><p>So there’s some basis here for thinking that PLTR has further to fall. To gauge how much further it has to fall, we need to do a discounted cash flow analysis. According to its cash flow statements, PLTR had $0.11 in free cash flow per share in the trailing 12 month period. There is no historical pattern in cash flows we can ascertain because free cash flow only became positive last year. However, we know that Palantir’s revenue is growing at 31%. If FCF grows in proportion to revenue, then the next five year’s cash flows will be:</p><ul><li><p>Base year: $0.11</p></li><li><p>Year 1: $0.144</p></li><li><p>Year 2: $0.188</p></li><li><p>Year 3: $0.25</p></li><li><p>Year 4: $0.323</p></li><li><p>Year 5: $0.424</p></li></ul><p>According to Finbox, Palantir’s weighted average cost of capital is 8.62%. If we use that as the discount rate, then five years’ cash flows can be discounted as shown below:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa3518f38fdfa46b5a3456f1e7422d4\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see, the five years’ cash flows have approximately $1 in present value.</p><p>Next, we need a terminal value. If we assume growth tapers off to 0% after five years, then our final year’s cash flow is 0.424. The discount rate minus the growth rate is 3.62%. So we get a terminal value of $4.91. That plus the five year’s cash flows gives us a fair value of $5.91.</p><p>Now, I’ve been pretty conservative here by estimating sustainable growth at 0%. If you use 5% instead of 0% then you get to a fair value of $13.58. Potentially, Palantir could grow faster and longer than that. But when making estimates, it pays to be conservative. So, $5.91 is a “safe” estimate of fair value.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>As we’ve seen, Palantir stock would be a pretty safe bet at $5. If it kept up its growth, it could even be worth as much as $13.58. If the stock dips much further then, an investor probably would do well buying it. However, we aren’t quite done. Before endorsing any thesis on a stock, we need to consider the risks to shareholders, and the challenges to the thesis. In Palantir’s case, there are a good few of these. A few of the most notable are:</p><ul><li><p><b>Deceleration.</b> My basic PLTR model yielded $5.91 in present value with a sustainable growth rate of 0%, and $13.58 with a sustainable growth rate of 5%. Neither of these growth rates are over the top. The assumption of 0% growth after five years is rather conservative. However, I nevertheless assumed that PLTR’s FCF growth can stay at 31% for five full years before the deceleration kicks in. Should deceleration kick in before five years, then the fair value will end up being lower than what I’ve estimated here.</p></li><li><p><b>Stock based compensation.</b> One factor arguing that Palantir isn’t just another overhyped growth stock is its positive FCF. The company is certainly turning a “profit” in cash flow terms. However, one of the ways Palantir keeps its cash flows high is through stock based compensation. It pays its employees in heavy amounts of stock, which keeps cash costs low as it results in lower salary expense. As a result of paying out so much stock, PLTR’s share count doubled in the year following its IPO. The more shares hit the float, the less each investor’s percentage claim on earnings, and the more potential selling pressure there is. So, continued dilution via SBC is a major risk factor for PLTR stock.</p></li><li><p><b>Loss of major contracts.</b> Although Palantir’s long contract duration ensures revenue stability in the medium term, it may not be as reliable in the long term. Governments can and do cancel relationships with contractors. Sometimes, they do so for political reasons. For example, in 2021, Palantir lost a contract with a UK Health Authority due to data privacy concerns. For now, it doesn’t look like PLTR is at risk of having this happen with any U.S. clients. But it’s always a possibility, and it could cost shareholders real money.</p></li></ul><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>The bottom line on Palantir is that it’s a real, cash flow positive company whose stock is unfortunately a bit overvalued right now. There is no question that Palantir is growing and maybe even profitable by some metrics. But its growth isn’t quite fast enough to justify its current stock price. It would take $5.91 or lower for PLTR to become interesting.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Gets Interesting At $5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Gets Interesting At $5\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-22 14:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.It's true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4513624-palantir-gets-interesting-at-5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2237089312","content_text":"SummaryRecently there have been many reports of \"smart money\" investors buying PLTR following its drop to $8.It's true that the stock has gotten cheaper than it was in the past, but the most recent quarter showed major deceleration.The stock remains fairly expensive.In this article, I rate Palantir a \"hold\" (neutral) and explain why I'd switch that rating to \"buy\" at $5.Andreas Rentz/Getty Images EntertainmentPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) stock has been on a wild ride these last 12 months. It peaked close to $29 last year and is now at approximately $8. The stock had been sliding before this month’s earnings release. The release was a miss but, surprisingly, the stock rose in the weeks after it came out. After dipping 2.28% on the day of the release, PLTR recovered, rising 10.8% by Friday’s close.Why did PLTR rise despite missing on earnings?It might have had something to do with management’s statements. In the earnings call that took place after Palantir’s earnings release came out, CEO Alex Karp hit on all the right notes. Among other things, he said:Palantir is only doing $9 million worth of stock-based compensation this year.The average Foundry customer spent $6.5 million on the service last year.He has 100% of his own money invested in Palantir.These comments may have eased investors’ nerves. The last one, in particular, showed that Karp was 100% invested in his own company, indicating high conviction from an important insider.Nevertheless, PLTR’s Q1 release provided some real causes for concern. It featured the company’s slowest revenue growth in years, as well as a GAAP net loss. 16% growth in government revenue was particularly concerning, as that segment has always been considered Palantir’s bread and butter. Given all of these concerns, I would hold off on buying PLTR stock for now. I do, however, think that there is a price at which the stock becomes interesting, and I will spend the remainder of this article explaining why $5 is that price.Palantir’s Competitive PositionOne of the reasons why Palantir has a non-zero value, despite its endless losses, is because of its competitive position. PLTR locks in government contracts with long lifespans, and it faces little competition in its niche. So, it has a significant amount of recurring revenue.Many online services have attempted to come up with lists of Palantir competitors but most are not true “head to head” competitors. For example, Craft.co has a list of Palantir’s competitors, featuring some questionable inclusions. It lists:Tableau, a data visualization suite that does not include many of the features of Foundry and Gotham.Cognizant (CTSH) - an IT consulting company.These companies do offer data analytics, which makes them superficially similar to Palantir. However, they don’t offer comprehensive data platforms aimed mainly at Federal Government agencies, so they aren’t head-to-head competitors. However, a few possible contenders for “true competitors” stand out:IBM (IBM) - has numerous data platforms going after clients in the financial services sector, one of Palantir’s big client bases.Tyler Technologies (TYL) - a data service works with government clients.Alteryx (AYX) - a data platform that mostly works with private sector clients but does list some government clients on its case study page.The above are probably Palantir’s closest competitors. They resemble PLTR in some respects. However, they do not have Palantir’s specific expertise in managing data for intelligence and military operations. So, Palantir is uncontested in that sub-niche.It’s a bit of a different story in the commercial part of Palantir’s business. In that space, PLTR faces dozens of competitors, and only has a 2.4% market share. Businesses that want general purpose data analytics have many options to choose from, so Palantir will have a harder time standing out in the commercial space.ValuationAs I showed in the previous section, Palantir enjoys an admirable competitive position in providing data analytics for Military and Intelligence agencies. Its overall position in big data and machine learning is not mind blowing, but it at least has one niche locked down. This fact means that Palantir’s stock is not at risk of going to zero. Government revenue is extremely stable, as it’s backed by taxing authority, and Palantir’s government contracts last 3.5 years on average.So, without a doubt, Palantir stock is worth some positive amount of money based on its fundamentals. As for how much it’s worth, we need to look at the stock’s valuation. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, PLTR trades at:67 times adjusted earnings.9.7 times sales.7 times book value.65 times operating cash flow.These are frankly extremely high multiples these days. In 2021, at the height of the post-COVID bubble, numbers like these weren’t unheard-of. But this year, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and investors are taking a long, hard look at expensive companies. If you look at the stocks that have suffered notable 50%+ declines this year, it’s practically a who’s who of last year’s expensive tech stocks:Tesla (TSLA).Shopify (SHOP).Netflix (NFLX).Peloton (PTON).PLTR, like these stocks, has gone down in price. However, its multiples remain high. Enough so that we might wonder whether it has further to fall. Additionally, PLTR’s revenue growth decelerated significantly in its most recent quarter–though it remained fairly high at 31%.So there’s some basis here for thinking that PLTR has further to fall. To gauge how much further it has to fall, we need to do a discounted cash flow analysis. According to its cash flow statements, PLTR had $0.11 in free cash flow per share in the trailing 12 month period. There is no historical pattern in cash flows we can ascertain because free cash flow only became positive last year. However, we know that Palantir’s revenue is growing at 31%. If FCF grows in proportion to revenue, then the next five year’s cash flows will be:Base year: $0.11Year 1: $0.144Year 2: $0.188Year 3: $0.25Year 4: $0.323Year 5: $0.424According to Finbox, Palantir’s weighted average cost of capital is 8.62%. If we use that as the discount rate, then five years’ cash flows can be discounted as shown below:As you can see, the five years’ cash flows have approximately $1 in present value.Next, we need a terminal value. If we assume growth tapers off to 0% after five years, then our final year’s cash flow is 0.424. The discount rate minus the growth rate is 3.62%. So we get a terminal value of $4.91. That plus the five year’s cash flows gives us a fair value of $5.91.Now, I’ve been pretty conservative here by estimating sustainable growth at 0%. If you use 5% instead of 0% then you get to a fair value of $13.58. Potentially, Palantir could grow faster and longer than that. But when making estimates, it pays to be conservative. So, $5.91 is a “safe” estimate of fair value.Risks and ChallengesAs we’ve seen, Palantir stock would be a pretty safe bet at $5. If it kept up its growth, it could even be worth as much as $13.58. If the stock dips much further then, an investor probably would do well buying it. However, we aren’t quite done. Before endorsing any thesis on a stock, we need to consider the risks to shareholders, and the challenges to the thesis. In Palantir’s case, there are a good few of these. A few of the most notable are:Deceleration. My basic PLTR model yielded $5.91 in present value with a sustainable growth rate of 0%, and $13.58 with a sustainable growth rate of 5%. Neither of these growth rates are over the top. The assumption of 0% growth after five years is rather conservative. However, I nevertheless assumed that PLTR’s FCF growth can stay at 31% for five full years before the deceleration kicks in. Should deceleration kick in before five years, then the fair value will end up being lower than what I’ve estimated here.Stock based compensation. One factor arguing that Palantir isn’t just another overhyped growth stock is its positive FCF. The company is certainly turning a “profit” in cash flow terms. However, one of the ways Palantir keeps its cash flows high is through stock based compensation. It pays its employees in heavy amounts of stock, which keeps cash costs low as it results in lower salary expense. As a result of paying out so much stock, PLTR’s share count doubled in the year following its IPO. The more shares hit the float, the less each investor’s percentage claim on earnings, and the more potential selling pressure there is. So, continued dilution via SBC is a major risk factor for PLTR stock.Loss of major contracts. Although Palantir’s long contract duration ensures revenue stability in the medium term, it may not be as reliable in the long term. Governments can and do cancel relationships with contractors. Sometimes, they do so for political reasons. For example, in 2021, Palantir lost a contract with a UK Health Authority due to data privacy concerns. For now, it doesn’t look like PLTR is at risk of having this happen with any U.S. clients. But it’s always a possibility, and it could cost shareholders real money.The Bottom LineThe bottom line on Palantir is that it’s a real, cash flow positive company whose stock is unfortunately a bit overvalued right now. There is no question that Palantir is growing and maybe even profitable by some metrics. But its growth isn’t quite fast enough to justify its current stock price. It would take $5.91 or lower for PLTR to become interesting.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994877720,"gmtCreate":1661613092062,"gmtModify":1676536549630,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994877720","repostId":"2262901563","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262901563","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661571503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262901563?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-27 11:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Did the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262901563","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A big drop sent the Dow down more than a thousand points.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank&#39;s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite discouraged by what they heard, as Powell restated the Fed&#39;s determination to push interest rates as high as they needed to go in order to ensure that inflationary pressures don&#39;t become permanently entrenched in the U.S. economy. For those who had hoped for a more dovish response, that was bad news, and the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average </b>ended the day down more than a thousand points. Percentage drops for the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and <b>Nasdaq Composite</b> were also in the 3% to 4% range.</p><p>Among large-cap stocks, there were only a handful of gainers as most share prices followed the broader market lower. Some now fear that the rebound that the market saw from mid-June to about a week ago may well prove to have been only a bear market rally, with today&#39;s downward move reestablishing a bearish trend that could take market indexes far lower.</p><table><thead><tr></tr></thead></table><p>There&#39;s no way to predict short-term price movements in the stock market. However, efforts to fight inflation, if successful, should result in better long-term results for investors than if the Fed simply backed off and allowed higher price trends to become a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.</p><h2>Stubborn inflation</h2><p>The big question still facing investors is whether inflation has peaked. Many of those watching economic data were pleased to see the upward moves in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) start to moderate recently. However, just because inflation has stopped accelerating doesn&#39;t mean that it&#39;s under control.</p><p>The latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the PCE tell  the story well. The headline number that most people emphasized was that the price index fell 0.1% in July, with goods prices falling 0.4%.</p><p>However, looking more closely at what goes into the PCE price index gives a more complete picture. Much of the downward pressure on the index came from a 7.7% drop in the sub-index for gasoline and other energy goods. That by itself was enough to send nondurable goods prices down half a percent, even as food and beverage prices jumped 1.3% month over month.</p><p>Some other key components showed continued rises. Housing and utility costs were up 0.6% for the month, extending their gain over the past 12 months to 7%.</p><p>Perhaps most importantly, even larger declines in a single month wouldn&#39;t by themselves reverse adverse trends. Energy costs are still more than 45% higher than they were this time last year. Food and beverages are up nearly 12% year over year, and even when you exclude food and energy, core PCE prices are up 4.6% since July 2021 -- more than double the 2% target that the Fed pursues.</p><h2>Is a recession worth long-term prosperity?</h2><p>Investors worry that a prolonged set of interest-rate increases from the Fed will push the economy into recession and restrain business activity. If that view from the Fed was unexpectedly hawkish, then it could leave stock market participants facing downward revisions on earnings estimates that could send stock prices lower once again.</p><p>In the long run, though, the impact of inflation on stock prices historically has been more difficult to overcome than short-term business cycle fluctuations. When you look back at recent bouts of inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, for instance, you&#39;ll notice significant volatility in stock markets that led to subpar returns. Only when inflationary pressures were resolved did solid bull markets result, and the long bull markets of the 1990s, mid-2000s, and 2010s all came in economic environments with little or no inflation.</p><p>It&#39;s indeed possible that a central bank with tight monetary policy might bring short-term pain to the stock market and an end to what might materialize as a bear market rally. However, I believe investors will be happier with this outcome in the long run than they would be with sustained inflation and the complications that come with it.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Did the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDid the Fed Kill the Bear Market Rally?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-27 11:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/26/did-the-fed-just-kill-the-bear-market-rally/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262901563","content_text":"Market participants have been concerned for weeks about what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might say at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Apparently, they were quite discouraged by what they heard, as Powell restated the Fed's determination to push interest rates as high as they needed to go in order to ensure that inflationary pressures don't become permanently entrenched in the U.S. economy. For those who had hoped for a more dovish response, that was bad news, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down more than a thousand points. Percentage drops for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were also in the 3% to 4% range.Among large-cap stocks, there were only a handful of gainers as most share prices followed the broader market lower. Some now fear that the rebound that the market saw from mid-June to about a week ago may well prove to have been only a bear market rally, with today's downward move reestablishing a bearish trend that could take market indexes far lower.There's no way to predict short-term price movements in the stock market. However, efforts to fight inflation, if successful, should result in better long-term results for investors than if the Fed simply backed off and allowed higher price trends to become a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.Stubborn inflationThe big question still facing investors is whether inflation has peaked. Many of those watching economic data were pleased to see the upward moves in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) start to moderate recently. However, just because inflation has stopped accelerating doesn't mean that it's under control.The latest numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on the PCE tell  the story well. The headline number that most people emphasized was that the price index fell 0.1% in July, with goods prices falling 0.4%.However, looking more closely at what goes into the PCE price index gives a more complete picture. Much of the downward pressure on the index came from a 7.7% drop in the sub-index for gasoline and other energy goods. That by itself was enough to send nondurable goods prices down half a percent, even as food and beverage prices jumped 1.3% month over month.Some other key components showed continued rises. Housing and utility costs were up 0.6% for the month, extending their gain over the past 12 months to 7%.Perhaps most importantly, even larger declines in a single month wouldn't by themselves reverse adverse trends. Energy costs are still more than 45% higher than they were this time last year. Food and beverages are up nearly 12% year over year, and even when you exclude food and energy, core PCE prices are up 4.6% since July 2021 -- more than double the 2% target that the Fed pursues.Is a recession worth long-term prosperity?Investors worry that a prolonged set of interest-rate increases from the Fed will push the economy into recession and restrain business activity. If that view from the Fed was unexpectedly hawkish, then it could leave stock market participants facing downward revisions on earnings estimates that could send stock prices lower once again.In the long run, though, the impact of inflation on stock prices historically has been more difficult to overcome than short-term business cycle fluctuations. When you look back at recent bouts of inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, for instance, you'll notice significant volatility in stock markets that led to subpar returns. Only when inflationary pressures were resolved did solid bull markets result, and the long bull markets of the 1990s, mid-2000s, and 2010s all came in economic environments with little or no inflation.It's indeed possible that a central bank with tight monetary policy might bring short-term pain to the stock market and an end to what might materialize as a bear market rally. However, I believe investors will be happier with this outcome in the long run than they would be with sustained inflation and the complications that come with it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9995478529,"gmtCreate":1661508860562,"gmtModify":1676536532378,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nvidia","listText":"Nvidia","text":"Nvidia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995478529","repostId":"2262957925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2262957925","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1661507104,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2262957925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Was Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262957925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Cathie Wood sold some of ARK's stake in Nvidia ahead of the Q2 earnings update -- should you follow suit?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cathie Wood&#39;s asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer <b>Nvidia</b> on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like Wood and her team had the right idea. As previewed a few weeks ago, Nvidia reported a 19% quarter-over-quarter decline in second-quarter revenue to $6.7 billion -- well below previous guidance of $8.1 billion. Even worse, Nvidia said it expects third-quarter revenue to be just $5.9 billion, yet another sequential decline and down from revenue of $7.1 billion in Q3 a year ago.</p><p>Nvidia is getting hit with a cyclical decline in sales, and there&#39;s no telling how long it will last. Should you follow Wood and sell Nvidia stock yourself?</p><h2>A bet (albeit a smaller bet) on Nvidia</h2><p>First, let&#39;s acknowledge that ARK Invest&#39;s sale of Nvidia stock (worth some $50 million at yesterday&#39;s prices) is relative. The two funds that sold -- the <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a></b> and the <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKW\">ARK Next Generation Internet ETF</a></b> -- still own sizable amounts of Nvidia. Just over 1% of both funds was allocated to Nvidia stock a day before Nvidia&#39;s update for its fiscal 2023 second quarter (a three-month period that ended July 31).</p><p>Even so, Wood&#39;s ARK Invest is likely slimming down its Nvidia stake as a cyclical downturn in consumer electronics takes hold. The third-quarter outlook -- revenue of just $5.9 billion -- implies a year-over-year decline of 17% at the midpoint of guidance. Gaming hardware sales are to blame, impacted by turmoil in the cryptocurrency industry. Nvidia&#39;s graphics processing units (GPUs) are often used to mine some cryptos like <b>Bitcoin</b> and <b>Ethereum</b>, but Ethereum&#39;s Merge is eliminating the need for high-powered chips.</p><p>The good news is that margins won&#39;t be hit as hard as some investors may have expected. After adjusted gross margin took a big dip on product sold (which Nvidia said was due to clearing existing inventory at retail partners), it looks like it will rebound in Q3. Clearing old inventory was key ahead of Nvidia announcing a refreshed lineup of gaming GPUs in September.</p><table><thead><tr><th><p><b>Period</b></p></th><th><p><b>Nvidia Adjusted Gross Profit Margin</b></p></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><p>Fiscal 2022</p></td><td><p>66.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q1 2023</p></td><td><p>67.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q2 2023</p></td><td><p>45.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>Q3 2023 (expected)</p></td><td><p>64.5% to 65.5%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Nvidia.</p><h2>Nvidia apparently doesn&#39;t agree with ARK Invest&#39;s sale</h2><p>If the past is any indication, this cyclical downturn for Nvidia&#39;s revenue isn&#39;t over. ARK Invest might simply be refreshing cash so it can buy stocks it thinks might perform better than Nvidia in the next six months or so as the company finds a bottom in this revenue downturn cycle.</p><p>But here&#39;s the problem: The market anticipated this cyclical downturn and clobbered Nvidia stock already this year. Sooner or later, if Nvidia&#39;s data center and automotive segments keep running higher and gaming eventually rebounds, Nvidia shares could rocket higher. Again, if the past provides a lesson for what&#39;s to come, the market will pick up on this before Nvidia reports an uptick in overall revenue growth.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67f3f5f6da7db780418988df2289aee\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts.</span></p><p>On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang talked about how uses for Nvidia GPUs have grown substantially -- and that growth isn&#39;t slowing down. Besides gaming, Nvidia hardware powers artificial intelligence (AI) in data centers, self-driving car technology, robotics, and new cloud computing services. Apparently, Huang and company think this dip will be temporary, just like past downturns.</p><p>Don&#39;t get me wrong; things could get worse before they get better for Nvidia. Perhaps Wood and her ARK Invest plan on buying more Nvidia later as the situation improves. But if you still believe in this long-term chip and AI behemoth&#39;s story, now isn&#39;t the time to sell. The end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 would have been the time to trim a position (if that&#39;s your style). For long-term buy-and-hold investors, there&#39;s still a lot to like about Nvidia stock right now.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas Cathie Wood Right to Dump Nvidia Stock Ahead of Weak Guidance?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 17:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood's asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer Nvidia on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/25/was-cathie-wood-right-to-dump-nvda-stock-earnings/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262957925","content_text":"Cathie Wood's asset management firm, ARK Invest, revealed it sold nearly 300,000 shares of leading chip designer Nvidia on Tuesday, a day ahead of the earnings update. At first blush, it looks like Wood and her team had the right idea. As previewed a few weeks ago, Nvidia reported a 19% quarter-over-quarter decline in second-quarter revenue to $6.7 billion -- well below previous guidance of $8.1 billion. Even worse, Nvidia said it expects third-quarter revenue to be just $5.9 billion, yet another sequential decline and down from revenue of $7.1 billion in Q3 a year ago.Nvidia is getting hit with a cyclical decline in sales, and there's no telling how long it will last. Should you follow Wood and sell Nvidia stock yourself?A bet (albeit a smaller bet) on NvidiaFirst, let's acknowledge that ARK Invest's sale of Nvidia stock (worth some $50 million at yesterday's prices) is relative. The two funds that sold -- the ARK Innovation ETF and the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF -- still own sizable amounts of Nvidia. Just over 1% of both funds was allocated to Nvidia stock a day before Nvidia's update for its fiscal 2023 second quarter (a three-month period that ended July 31).Even so, Wood's ARK Invest is likely slimming down its Nvidia stake as a cyclical downturn in consumer electronics takes hold. The third-quarter outlook -- revenue of just $5.9 billion -- implies a year-over-year decline of 17% at the midpoint of guidance. Gaming hardware sales are to blame, impacted by turmoil in the cryptocurrency industry. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are often used to mine some cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but Ethereum's Merge is eliminating the need for high-powered chips.The good news is that margins won't be hit as hard as some investors may have expected. After adjusted gross margin took a big dip on product sold (which Nvidia said was due to clearing existing inventory at retail partners), it looks like it will rebound in Q3. Clearing old inventory was key ahead of Nvidia announcing a refreshed lineup of gaming GPUs in September.PeriodNvidia Adjusted Gross Profit MarginFiscal 202266.8%Q1 202367.1%Q2 202345.9%Q3 2023 (expected)64.5% to 65.5%Data source: Nvidia.Nvidia apparently doesn't agree with ARK Invest's saleIf the past is any indication, this cyclical downturn for Nvidia's revenue isn't over. ARK Invest might simply be refreshing cash so it can buy stocks it thinks might perform better than Nvidia in the next six months or so as the company finds a bottom in this revenue downturn cycle.But here's the problem: The market anticipated this cyclical downturn and clobbered Nvidia stock already this year. Sooner or later, if Nvidia's data center and automotive segments keep running higher and gaming eventually rebounds, Nvidia shares could rocket higher. Again, if the past provides a lesson for what's to come, the market will pick up on this before Nvidia reports an uptick in overall revenue growth.Data by YCharts.On the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang talked about how uses for Nvidia GPUs have grown substantially -- and that growth isn't slowing down. Besides gaming, Nvidia hardware powers artificial intelligence (AI) in data centers, self-driving car technology, robotics, and new cloud computing services. Apparently, Huang and company think this dip will be temporary, just like past downturns.Don't get me wrong; things could get worse before they get better for Nvidia. Perhaps Wood and her ARK Invest plan on buying more Nvidia later as the situation improves. But if you still believe in this long-term chip and AI behemoth's story, now isn't the time to sell. The end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 would have been the time to trim a position (if that's your style). For long-term buy-and-hold investors, there's still a lot to like about Nvidia stock right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908752236,"gmtCreate":1659445936027,"gmtModify":1705980415256,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908752236","repostId":"1188690484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188690484","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659454673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188690484?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-02 23:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188690484","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17.</li><li>The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.</li><li>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>I am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett&#39;s key maxims:</p><blockquote>Be greedy when others are fearful.</blockquote><p>Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.</p><p>Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company&#39;s fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.</p><p><b>A Best-In-Class Company</b></p><p>Alibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).</p><p>Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world&#39;s biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.</p><p>Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China&#39;s cloud market with about37% market share. China&#39;s cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party&#39;s5-year development plan.</p><p><b>Bullish Financials</b></p><p>In the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.</p><p>Alibaba&#39;sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company&#39;s market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba&#39;s business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.</p><p>Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.</p><p><b>The Buying Opportunity</b></p><p>Despite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01e6eab7204bcc90b5af9aa0d87ac85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>Alibaba is a quality company, and the stock&#39;s undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?</p><p>I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba&#39;s extremely depressed valuation - now the company&#39;s stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.</p><p>Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba&#39;s headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.</p><p>In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.</p><p>Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa3c940aeeed4780c87b1ca71bdb180\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p><b>Residual Earnings Valuation</b></p><p>Let us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:</p><ul><li>To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal &#39;till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.</li><li>To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock&#39;s beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company&#39;s idiosyncratic market risk.</li><li>To derive Baidu&#39;s tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.</li><li>For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba&#39;s high-potential initiatives</li><li>I do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.</li></ul><p>Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7cb860aca7fa48ef2afe7e265d3effa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p>I understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba&#39;s required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62ba3323a1f09e75477921298d84cbf8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Analyst Consensus EPS; Author&#39;s Calculation</p><p><b>Investment Risks</b></p><p>Investors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:</p><p>First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba&#39;s short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.</p><p>Secondly, China&#39;s internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.</p><p>Third, much of BABA&#39;s share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company&#39;s business fundamentals remain unchanged.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Alibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba&#39;s sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.</p><p>Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-02 23:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528176-alibaba-be-greedy-when-others-fearful","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188690484","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17.The stock is down about 70% from ATH and now trades at very attractive risk/reward levels.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model.ThesisI am very bullish on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) stock. I strongly believe that the market has priced in too much negativity and pessimism as compared to reality and investors are well advised to follow one of Buffett's key maxims:Be greedy when others are fearful.Alibaba has grown at a 5-year CAGR of more than 42%, but the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17. This indicates a clear undervaluation.Of course, I understand that investors are worried about a potential ADR delisting, slowing economy and crackdown on internet/tech companies. However, just like a bull market tops on the most bullish conditions, a bear market bottoms on the most bearish conditions. While investors should study and understand the risks, I personally believe that Alibaba stock will rebound strongly from current price levels of below $100/share.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, as I calculate the company's fair value with a residual earnings model anchored on fundamentals and analyst consensus estimates. My target price is $133.92.A Best-In-Class CompanyAlibaba is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the world. The company operates three main shopping sites Taobao, Tmall and Alibaba.com, which cumulatively serve some 828 million monthly active buyers (fiscal year ending March 31, 2021).Alibaba also has stakes in multiple innovative internet/technology businesses such as Youku (video entertainment), Pony.Ai (Autonomous Driving) and most notably Ant Group (The world's biggest financial service company). Alipay serves almost the entire population in China. The platform has 1.3 billion users and 80 million merchants. Notably, the total payment volume of Alipay was more than $19 trillion in 2021.Moreover, Alibaba is a dominant force in China's cloud market with about37% market share. China's cloud market is expected to grow at a 4-year CAGR of more than 25%, reaching $85 billion in 2026. As the market leader in China, Alibaba is poised to benefit from this super-charged cloud-growth. Cloud is also a business vertical where the company should enjoy government tailwind, as the Chinese Communist Party is actively supporting digitalization efforts of the economy and has made cloud development a key-priority in the party's5-year development plan.Bullish FinancialsIn the past financial year, the Alibaba Group generated total revenues of about $134.5 billion and recorded an operating income of about $15 billion. Most notably in the past five years, from March 2017 to March 2022, Alibaba has grown at an unbelievable 5-year CAGR of 42%. For reference, this is almost double the growth rate of Amazon, which grew at a 5-year CAGR of 22% CAGR over the same period. Alibaba closed the fiscal year 2021 with 9.8 billion of net-income available to common shareholders.Alibaba'sbalance sheet is very strong: As of March 2022, the company recorded $71.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents and only $27.85 of total financial debt. This makes Alibaba a net-creditor of about $43 billion -- which is 17% of the company's market capitalization. Moreover, Alibaba's business operations, despite the strong growth, are cash-accretive. In fiscal 2021, the company generated cash from operations of $22.5 billion. Under these circumstances it should come to no surprise that the company announced a $25 billion share-buyback program, more than 10% of the outstanding shares) in March 2022.Alibaba will announce earnings for the quarter from April to end of June on August 4th before the market open. Analyst consensus expects total revenues of $30.21 billion and EPS of $1.56.The Buying OpportunityDespite the strong business fundamentals, Alibaba stock suffered a spectacular sell-off. BABA shares are down about 70% from ATH as the company was pressured by multiple headwinds: ADR delisting fears, as slowing economy , Covid-19 lockdowns and an aggressive regulatory crackdown that started with the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO in November 2020.Seeking AlphaAlibaba is a quality company, and the stock's undervaluation is no secret to investors. The key-question is: is the worst behind, and can investors safely invest in Alibaba stock?I strongly believe that a safe investment does not exist. In my opinion, every investment opportunity must be judged as a function of its price. And the lower the price, the less risky an investment becomes. Thus, investing is a question of risk/reward. Given Alibaba's extremely depressed valuation - now the company's stock is trading at a PE of about x17- I argue an investment is justified.Moreover, there are signs that all of Alibaba's headwinds are easing and the negativity surrounding the stock has peaked. China has on multiple occasions tried to communicate to investors that the internet/technology crackdown is coming to an end and is actively supporting the healthy expansion of digital platform economies.In addition, China has vowed to push more fiscal economic support- with a special focus on digitalization. While western economies are hawkish on fiscal and monetary stimulus - ending a decade long easing cycle, China is one of the few economies that appears to start a new stimulus cycle.Analysts agree with the bullish thesis. In general, analysts are very bullish on Alibaba stock. Based on ratings of 44 analysts, 33 analysts give a Strong Buy rating, 8 are Buy rated and 3 assign a Hold recommendation. There is no Sell or Strong Sell rating. The average price target is $155.47/share, indicating more than 70% upside.Seeking AlphaResidual Earnings ValuationLet us now look at the valuation. What could be a fair per-share value for Alibaba stock? To answer the question, I have constructed a Residual Earnings framework and anchor on the following assumptions:To forecast EPS, I anchor on consensus analyst forecast as available on the Bloomberg Terminal 'till 2025. In my opinion, any estimate beyond 2025 is too speculative to include in a valuation framework. But for 2-3 years, analyst consensus is usually quite precise.To estimate the cost of capital, I use the WACC framework. I model a three-year regression against the Hang Seng to find the stock's beta. For the risk-free rate, I used the U.S. 10-year treasury yield as of July 22nd, 2022. My calculation indicates a fair WACC of about 9.8%. I adjust upward to 12% in order to reflect the company's idiosyncratic market risk.To derive Baidu's tax rate, I extrapolate the 3-year average effective tax-rate from 2019, 2020 and 2021.For the terminal growth rate, I apply expected nominal GDP growth plus one percentage point to reflect a favorable growth outlook for Alibaba's high-potential initiativesI do not model any share buyback further supporting a conservative valuation.Based on the above assumptions, my calculation returns a base-case target price for Alibaba of $133.92/share, implying material upside of more than 50%.Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationI understand that investors might have different assumptions with regards to Alibaba's required return and terminal business growth. Thus, I also enclose a sensitivity table to test varying assumptions. For reference, red-cells imply an overvaluation as compared to the current market price, and green-cells imply an undervaluation. Notably, all tested combinations imply an undervaluation!Analyst Consensus EPS; Author's CalculationInvestment RisksInvestors should be aware of the following downside risks that might cause Alibaba stock to materially deviate from my base-case target price of $133.92/share:First, the economy is currently pressured by multiple headwinds including inflation, real-estate crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns. If the economy would slow more than what is expected and priced in, investors should adjust expectations for Alibaba's short/mid-term business monetization accordingly.Secondly, China's internet/tech companies are strongly exposed to regulatory risk. While the worst seems to be behind us, the elevated risk exposure persists -- and will arguably never completely fade.Third, much of BABA's share price volatility is currently driven by investor sentiment towards Chinese ADRs and risk assets. Thus, BABA stock price might show strong price volatility even though the company's business fundamentals remain unchanged.ConclusionAlibaba stock is down 70% from ATH, but the company remains a global powerhouse with enormous long-term potential. Trading at a PE of below x17, despite growing like a start-up, I argue Alibaba's sell-off could offer long-term focused investors, that can stomach short term share-price volatility, a generational buying opportunity.Personally, I see more than 50% upside for BABA stock, despite cautious and conservative valuation assumptions. Strong Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9079399676,"gmtCreate":1657150478195,"gmtModify":1676535957527,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079399676","repostId":"1103023863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103023863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657150083,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103023863?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-07 07:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Growth Stocks Are Soaring as a Recession Looms Large","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103023863","media":"investorplace","summary":"Investors will increasingly pivot into growth stocks that can power through an economic slowdown.The","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Investors will increasingly pivot into growth stocks that can power through an economic slowdown.</li><li>The 5-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year yesterday for the first time this cycle.</li><li>Since yields are plunging, we think this recession-driven selloff is at that critical tipping point where growth stocks start to surge.</li></ul><p>Like it or not, a <b>recession</b> is coming. And Wall Street is finally preparing.</p><p>Yesterday, bond yields and commodity prices plunged while stocks struggled. That’s exactly what you’d expect as investors prep for a recession over the next 12 months.</p><p>But guess what else happened? <b>Investors piled into growth stocks</b>. The signature portfolio in our <b><i>Innovation Investor</i></b> investment research advisory comprises <b>the top 10 growth stocks to buy right now</b>. And it soared more than 6% yesterday!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dec2966c935c9760232b4c9c440118f\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>This is also typical “recession prep” trading action.</p><p>Usually, when a recession hits, investors seek growth stocks that have so much momentum, they’ll grow through the storm. Not to mention, those same growth stocks also benefit from the lower bond yields that typically accompany recessions.</p><p>Therefore, yesterday’s huge move higher in growth stocks isn’t surprising.</p><p>It’s also just the beginning of something much, much bigger…</p><p>The reality is that the U.S. economy is spiraling into a recession. Wall Street has long neglected this. Finally, investors are waking up. Over the next six months, investors will prepare for and navigate through a recession. And they’ll increasingly pivot into growth stocks that power through an economic slowdown.</p><p>Net-net — growth stocks are in the early stages of a big multi-month breakout.</p><h2>Recession Incoming</h2><p>One of the best recession signals in the markets is a <b>yield curve inversion</b>.</p><p>In short, the U.S. government issues a bunch of “bonds” with different maturity dates. Typically, the Treasuries with shorter maturity dates have lower yields than those with longer maturities. That indicates that investors require more return to hold a certain security for a longer period.</p><p>However, when investors get nervous about a recession, they don’t want to hold short-term bonds. Their confidence in the near-term outlook for the economy is reduced. So, they sell short-term bonds and buy long-term ones instead. This pushes short yields higher and long yields lower. When this dynamic becomes extreme, long yields fall below short yields. This is called a yield curve inversion.</p><p>Yield curve inversions are rare. They only happen about once a decade. <b>But when they do happen, they’re almost always followed by a recession.</b></p><p>Yesterday, the yield curve inverted as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year. Some of you may recall that this 10-2 inversion happened once before in 2022. It did. But what we haven’t seen so far in 2022 — and, indeed, haven’t seen since the months before the COVID-driven recession and before that, 2007 — is a “5-2 inversion.” That’s when the 5-year Treasury yield drops below 2-year.</p><p>That happened yesterday for the first time this cycle. Such an inversion is pretty much a surefire recession indicator.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb348086ec4ba7f6e9d3efa4012a7ad8\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"264\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In other words, the bond market is the biggest market in the world. And it’s flashing its biggest warning signal yet that a recession’s on the horizon.</p><p>We’d be fools not to listen.</p><p>That’s why Wall Street played “recession prep” so strongly yesterday. Yields plunged. Commodities crashed. Stocks struggled.</p><h2>Growth Stocks Thrive in Recessions</h2><p>Many investors think that recessions kill all stocks. That’s not true. Recessions impact all stocks differently. And when it comes to growth stocks, recessions can actually be beneficial.</p><p>The reasoning is two-fold.</p><p><b>First</b>, recessions create a scarcity of earnings growth. This pushes investors to allocate funds into the stocks that can still create strong earnings growth despite a no-growth environment. (Those are secular growth stocks).</p><p><b>Second</b>, recessions push bond yields lower. And when bond yields go lower, the future cash flows upon which growth stocks are valued become worth more today. (That’s because bond yields are used as a proxy for the discount rate on those cash flows).</p><p>In other words, investors pile into growth stocks during recessions because they can keep growing. And they benefit from the lower yields that accompany recessions.</p><p>Makes sense, right?</p><p>This is more than just theory. Look at the last “real” recession the U.S. faced in 2008.</p><p>During that downturn, there was a five-month stretch at the end of the market’s selloff where the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> and <b>Dow Jones</b> both dropped about 10%. Yet growth stocks like <b>Amazon</b>(Nasdaq:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>), <b>Netflix</b>(Nasdaq:<b><u>NFLX</u></b>) and <b>Booking</b>(Nasdaq:<b><u>BKNG</u></b>) all rose more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43cc3c7710e30c731d7a49ea6680a3\" tg-width=\"1430\" tg-height=\"1009\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It was the same with the recession before that. In 2001-02, there was a year-long stretch where the stock market dropped more than 20% as the economy’s growth slowed. Yet, over that same period, growth stocks like Amazon rose nearly 150%!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c9a3e3684b35cfb1574b1f66054a21\" tg-width=\"1430\" tg-height=\"951\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In every recession-driven stock market selloff, there comes a point where investors start piling into growth stocks to play defense.</p><p><b>We think we’re at that point today.</b></p><p>Usually, it happens when yields start to plunge. In the early 2000s, yields took a dive in mid-2001. And that’s when growth stocks started to soar as the rest of the market struggled. In 2008, yields dropped in late 2008, and growth stocks began to roar as the rest of the market slumped.</p><p>Today, yields are plunging. The 10-year was 3.5% just a week ago. Now it’s at 2.8%.</p><p>Yields are plunging. And as such, we think this recession-driven selloff is at that critical tipping point where <b>growth stocks start to surge.</b></p><h2>The Final Word on Growth Stocks</h2><p>History doesn’t repeat – but it does rhyme.</p><p>Every time a recession hits the stock market, the cycle is simple:</p><ol><li>Recession fears emerge. Stocks and bonds drop as investors sell everything.</li><li>Recession fears are confirmed, leading investors to rush into bonds for safety. Yields drop.</li><li>As yields drop, growth stocks start to rise and even surge, but the rest of the market drops.</li><li>The recession ends, and the whole market rebounds.</li></ol><p>Right now, we are between steps two and three. Recession fears have been all but confirmed. Investors are rushing into bonds. Yields are plunging. And growth stocks are starting to rise from the ashes.</p><p>What comes next? <b>A mega-rally in growth stocks</b>… while the rest of the market flops.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth Stocks Are Soaring as a Recession Looms Large</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth Stocks Are Soaring as a Recession Looms Large\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-07 07:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/07/growth-stocks-are-soaring-as-a-recession-looms-large/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors will increasingly pivot into growth stocks that can power through an economic slowdown.The 5-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year yesterday for the first time this cycle.Since yields...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/07/growth-stocks-are-soaring-as-a-recession-looms-large/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NFLX":"奈飞","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/07/growth-stocks-are-soaring-as-a-recession-looms-large/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103023863","content_text":"Investors will increasingly pivot into growth stocks that can power through an economic slowdown.The 5-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year yesterday for the first time this cycle.Since yields are plunging, we think this recession-driven selloff is at that critical tipping point where growth stocks start to surge.Like it or not, a recession is coming. And Wall Street is finally preparing.Yesterday, bond yields and commodity prices plunged while stocks struggled. That’s exactly what you’d expect as investors prep for a recession over the next 12 months.But guess what else happened? Investors piled into growth stocks. The signature portfolio in our Innovation Investor investment research advisory comprises the top 10 growth stocks to buy right now. And it soared more than 6% yesterday!This is also typical “recession prep” trading action.Usually, when a recession hits, investors seek growth stocks that have so much momentum, they’ll grow through the storm. Not to mention, those same growth stocks also benefit from the lower bond yields that typically accompany recessions.Therefore, yesterday’s huge move higher in growth stocks isn’t surprising.It’s also just the beginning of something much, much bigger…The reality is that the U.S. economy is spiraling into a recession. Wall Street has long neglected this. Finally, investors are waking up. Over the next six months, investors will prepare for and navigate through a recession. And they’ll increasingly pivot into growth stocks that power through an economic slowdown.Net-net — growth stocks are in the early stages of a big multi-month breakout.Recession IncomingOne of the best recession signals in the markets is a yield curve inversion.In short, the U.S. government issues a bunch of “bonds” with different maturity dates. Typically, the Treasuries with shorter maturity dates have lower yields than those with longer maturities. That indicates that investors require more return to hold a certain security for a longer period.However, when investors get nervous about a recession, they don’t want to hold short-term bonds. Their confidence in the near-term outlook for the economy is reduced. So, they sell short-term bonds and buy long-term ones instead. This pushes short yields higher and long yields lower. When this dynamic becomes extreme, long yields fall below short yields. This is called a yield curve inversion.Yield curve inversions are rare. They only happen about once a decade. But when they do happen, they’re almost always followed by a recession.Yesterday, the yield curve inverted as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year. Some of you may recall that this 10-2 inversion happened once before in 2022. It did. But what we haven’t seen so far in 2022 — and, indeed, haven’t seen since the months before the COVID-driven recession and before that, 2007 — is a “5-2 inversion.” That’s when the 5-year Treasury yield drops below 2-year.That happened yesterday for the first time this cycle. Such an inversion is pretty much a surefire recession indicator.In other words, the bond market is the biggest market in the world. And it’s flashing its biggest warning signal yet that a recession’s on the horizon.We’d be fools not to listen.That’s why Wall Street played “recession prep” so strongly yesterday. Yields plunged. Commodities crashed. Stocks struggled.Growth Stocks Thrive in RecessionsMany investors think that recessions kill all stocks. That’s not true. Recessions impact all stocks differently. And when it comes to growth stocks, recessions can actually be beneficial.The reasoning is two-fold.First, recessions create a scarcity of earnings growth. This pushes investors to allocate funds into the stocks that can still create strong earnings growth despite a no-growth environment. (Those are secular growth stocks).Second, recessions push bond yields lower. And when bond yields go lower, the future cash flows upon which growth stocks are valued become worth more today. (That’s because bond yields are used as a proxy for the discount rate on those cash flows).In other words, investors pile into growth stocks during recessions because they can keep growing. And they benefit from the lower yields that accompany recessions.Makes sense, right?This is more than just theory. Look at the last “real” recession the U.S. faced in 2008.During that downturn, there was a five-month stretch at the end of the market’s selloff where the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both dropped about 10%. Yet growth stocks like Amazon(Nasdaq:AMZN), Netflix(Nasdaq:NFLX) and Booking(Nasdaq:BKNG) all rose more than 50%.It was the same with the recession before that. In 2001-02, there was a year-long stretch where the stock market dropped more than 20% as the economy’s growth slowed. Yet, over that same period, growth stocks like Amazon rose nearly 150%!In every recession-driven stock market selloff, there comes a point where investors start piling into growth stocks to play defense.We think we’re at that point today.Usually, it happens when yields start to plunge. In the early 2000s, yields took a dive in mid-2001. And that’s when growth stocks started to soar as the rest of the market struggled. In 2008, yields dropped in late 2008, and growth stocks began to roar as the rest of the market slumped.Today, yields are plunging. The 10-year was 3.5% just a week ago. Now it’s at 2.8%.Yields are plunging. And as such, we think this recession-driven selloff is at that critical tipping point where growth stocks start to surge.The Final Word on Growth StocksHistory doesn’t repeat – but it does rhyme.Every time a recession hits the stock market, the cycle is simple:Recession fears emerge. Stocks and bonds drop as investors sell everything.Recession fears are confirmed, leading investors to rush into bonds for safety. Yields drop.As yields drop, growth stocks start to rise and even surge, but the rest of the market drops.The recession ends, and the whole market rebounds.Right now, we are between steps two and three. Recession fears have been all but confirmed. Investors are rushing into bonds. Yields are plunging. And growth stocks are starting to rise from the ashes.What comes next? A mega-rally in growth stocks… while the rest of the market flops.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}