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MuNic
2021-04-19
May will shoot up.Sell in May n go away.
Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?
MuNic
2021-03-19
Slkz-recommended by Motley Fool
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MuNic
2021-03-19
But GM?
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Go to Tiger App to see more news
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Even though many of those stocks, which perform better in times of economic expansion, now look a little expensive, a few still stand out as fairly cheap.</p>\n<p>Stocks in economically-sensitive sectors such as banks, oil and industrials have performed more than handsomely this year as states announced reopenings and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus more than shored up demand. The SPDR S&P Bank (ticker: KBE), Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) exchange-traded funds are all up double digits year to date, dwarfing the S&P 500’s roughly 6% gain and the Nasdaq Composite’s 3.3% advance.</p>\n<p>Tons of cyclicals now look fairly overextended. Caterpillar (CAT), for example, is up 27% year to date. The average analyst price target is 6% below its current trading price. Fortunately, there are some out there trading at attractive valuations with earnings momentum on their side.</p>\n<p>Strategists at Citigroup compiled a list on Monday of stocks with tolerable valuations, a few of which are cyclical in nature. Citi looked at the PEG ratio, or price/earnings to growth, which divides the forward earnings multiple by the expected earnings growth rate. It tells how justified a stock’s valuation is by showing the gap between the multiple and earnings growth. The slimmer the gap, the cheaper the stock. Citi looked at large capitalization stocks—those with market caps above $10 billion--and looked for those with the 25 lowest PEG ratios.</p>\n<p>When economic demand rises robustly, so do manufacturing projects, increasing demand for industrial metals used to build machinery. That’s propelled shares of Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the $50 billion by market capitalization metal miner. The company is worth a quarter more now than it was at the beginning of 2021. But the stock still trades at a PEG ratio of about 0.3, based on an expected compound annual growth rate of earnings for the next 3 years. By comparison, the average stock on the S&P 500 trades at a PEG ratio of 1.3. Freeport McMoRan shares could have plenty of runway ahead.</p>\n<p>Auto makers and other manufacturers need steel to build more products and machines when demand firms up. That’s good news for steelmaker Nucor (NUE), which has seen its currently $20 billion market cap rise by about a third this year. It trades at a 0.9 PEG ratio.</p>\n<p>Shares of General Motors (GM) are up 45% but still trade at a PEG ratio around 1.3, in line with that of the broader market. The stock looks a little less attractive than the others on the list and earnings are only expected to compound in the high single digits over the next 3 years. Still, earnings in 2022 are expected to grow 19% over 2021, according to analysts polled by FactSet. The stock could therefore enjoy plenty of momentum in the near-term. People purchase more cars when they have more discretionary spending capacity.</p>\n<p>Hotel chain Marriott International (MAR) is up more than 20% this year. It trades at a PEG ratio of 0.4. As the virus risk associated with hotels fades, people may be more comfortable visiting them. Plus, people’s increased discretionary spend is a major tailwind for hotels.</p>\n<p>Stocks are pricey by some measures, but that doesn’t mean there are no bargains to ride the sharp economic rebound.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Stocks Are Falling Fast, Here Are 4 Cyclical Stocks That Are Still Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Stocks Are Falling Fast, Here Are 4 Cyclical Stocks That Are Still Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 18:02 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/cyclical-stocks-have-been-on-a-tear-here-are-4-names-that-are-still-cheap-51616059802?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have rushed into so-called cyclical stocks as the economic outlook has gotten a shot in the arm and high-flying tech stocks take it on the chin. Even though many of those stocks, which ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/cyclical-stocks-have-been-on-a-tear-here-are-4-names-that-are-still-cheap-51616059802?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/cyclical-stocks-have-been-on-a-tear-here-are-4-names-that-are-still-cheap-51616059802?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_2_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1137663173","content_text":"Investors have rushed into so-called cyclical stocks as the economic outlook has gotten a shot in the arm and high-flying tech stocks take it on the chin. Even though many of those stocks, which perform better in times of economic expansion, now look a little expensive, a few still stand out as fairly cheap.\nStocks in economically-sensitive sectors such as banks, oil and industrials have performed more than handsomely this year as states announced reopenings and trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus more than shored up demand. The SPDR S&P Bank (ticker: KBE), Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) and Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) exchange-traded funds are all up double digits year to date, dwarfing the S&P 500’s roughly 6% gain and the Nasdaq Composite’s 3.3% advance.\nTons of cyclicals now look fairly overextended. Caterpillar (CAT), for example, is up 27% year to date. The average analyst price target is 6% below its current trading price. Fortunately, there are some out there trading at attractive valuations with earnings momentum on their side.\nStrategists at Citigroup compiled a list on Monday of stocks with tolerable valuations, a few of which are cyclical in nature. Citi looked at the PEG ratio, or price/earnings to growth, which divides the forward earnings multiple by the expected earnings growth rate. It tells how justified a stock’s valuation is by showing the gap between the multiple and earnings growth. The slimmer the gap, the cheaper the stock. Citi looked at large capitalization stocks—those with market caps above $10 billion--and looked for those with the 25 lowest PEG ratios.\nWhen economic demand rises robustly, so do manufacturing projects, increasing demand for industrial metals used to build machinery. That’s propelled shares of Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the $50 billion by market capitalization metal miner. The company is worth a quarter more now than it was at the beginning of 2021. But the stock still trades at a PEG ratio of about 0.3, based on an expected compound annual growth rate of earnings for the next 3 years. By comparison, the average stock on the S&P 500 trades at a PEG ratio of 1.3. Freeport McMoRan shares could have plenty of runway ahead.\nAuto makers and other manufacturers need steel to build more products and machines when demand firms up. That’s good news for steelmaker Nucor (NUE), which has seen its currently $20 billion market cap rise by about a third this year. It trades at a 0.9 PEG ratio.\nShares of General Motors (GM) are up 45% but still trade at a PEG ratio around 1.3, in line with that of the broader market. The stock looks a little less attractive than the others on the list and earnings are only expected to compound in the high single digits over the next 3 years. Still, earnings in 2022 are expected to grow 19% over 2021, according to analysts polled by FactSet. The stock could therefore enjoy plenty of momentum in the near-term. People purchase more cars when they have more discretionary spending capacity.\nHotel chain Marriott International (MAR) is up more than 20% this year. It trades at a PEG ratio of 0.4. As the virus risk associated with hotels fades, people may be more comfortable visiting them. Plus, people’s increased discretionary spend is a major tailwind for hotels.\nStocks are pricey by some measures, but that doesn’t mean there are no bargains to ride the sharp economic rebound.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350354319,"gmtCreate":1616162550531,"gmtModify":1704791740585,"author":{"id":"3573080885425399","authorId":"3573080885425399","name":"MuNic","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573080885425399","authorIdStr":"3573080885425399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But GM?","listText":"But GM?","text":"But GM?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350354319","repostId":"1137663173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373930253,"gmtCreate":1618809002172,"gmtModify":1704715180965,"author":{"id":"3573080885425399","authorId":"3573080885425399","name":"MuNic","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573080885425399","authorIdStr":"3573080885425399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May will shoot up.Sell in May n go away.","listText":"May will shoot up.Sell in May n go away.","text":"May will shoot up.Sell in May n go away.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373930253","repostId":"2128525488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2128525488","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1618802400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2128525488?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-19 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128525488","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston","content":"<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks are at all-time highs and the U.S. economy is booming. So why is everyone so nervous?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-19 11:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> markets research analyst notes\n</blockquote>\n<p>Peter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.</p>\n<p>\"I think this is going to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"</p>\n<p>But three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"</p>\n<p>Andersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.</p>\n<p>\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"</p>\n<p>As if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.</p>\n<p>And that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?</p>\n<p>Taken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.</p>\n<p>\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"</p>\n<p>Market observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb6bad128839dbcf6e9ba87c8620e88\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"426\"></p>\n<p>To be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.</p>\n<p>Also unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.</p>\n<p>\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"</p>\n<p>Dave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.</p>\n<p>Nadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.</p>\n<p>\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"</p>\n<p>Take the Gamestop Corp. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$(GME)$</a>frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.</p>\n<p>Older investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.</p>\n<p>\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"</p>\n<p>That means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.</p>\n<p>For Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.</p>\n<p>In the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRUP\">Trupanion</a> Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"</p>\n<p>Stocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.</p>\n<p>The coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128525488","content_text":"Clients say 'markets don't feel right,' one markets research analyst notes\n\nPeter Andersen, a Boston-based money manager, started 2021 feeling upbeat.\n\"I think this is going to be one of the historic recoveries, up there with the end of major wars,\" he told MarketWatch around the turn of the year. \"There's enormous demand from consumers. Can you imagine when we get the all-clear and start moving back toward normalcy?\"\nBut three months into the year, Andersen is glum. In an interview last week, he talked about the way big segments of the market seem to be in favor one day, out the next. \"We toggle between value and growth, stay-at-home and re-opening, almost daily,\" he said. \"I don't know who is driving this, but it must be following some kind of algorithm.\"\nAndersen is trying to be patient, recognizing that the economy is at a once-in-a-generation inflection point and that everyone is operating in unprecedented conditions. Still, he said, the financial markets sometimes feel like a house of cards.\n\"It's confounding,\" he said. \"The market is fragile, and surprisingly so. This whole year for me has been really challenging to try to figure out is there any momentum, what direction is it going in and what's responsible for it.\"\nAs if the horrors of the global coronavirus pandemic weren't enough of a curveball, the past 12 months have thrown up a slew of other headwinds against smooth market sailing. There's the surge of retail traders bent on using the stock market as a gambling casino , and a national politics so bitter that the presidential election turned bloody.\nAnd that's not even counting the more existential questions: what's the right level for a stock market that plunged 33% in about two weeks just a year ago? How much of that gain comes down to policy stimulus and how much is real? How much of the expected economic rebound is already priced in? What happens if the vaccine promise falls short? What if this is as good as it gets?\nTaken together, it leaves people who manage money, their clients, and the companies that advise them, just as befuddled as Andersen, with almost as many perceived red flags as there are theories as to what's causing it all.\n\"The most common observation we get from clients is that markets don't \"feel right\", and we absolutely get that,\" wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a recent note. \"For us, a big piece of this unease comes from the novelty of seeing capital markets go from distress to euphoria in such a short period of time.\"\nMarket observers point to all manner of weird quirks that seem to confirm something is askew. Among other things, trading volumes have plunged to start 2021.\n\nTo be sure, the elevated volumes in 2020 were just that -- an outlier. But by some estimates, inexperienced amateur traders now make up as much as 20% of all volume in the markets. And even if all of them aren't out gunning for short-sellers, they still have very different priorities and incentives than much of the rest of the market.\nAlso unsettling was the spike U.S. Treasury yields in only a few weeks in the first quarter this year, spooking stock-market investors, followed by several weeks of Federal Reserve policymakers reassuring markets that any interest rate rises wouldn't start until 2023 and would be telegraphed well in advance. Strangely then, rosy economic data seemingly caused bond yields to plunge in mid-April.\n\"Other weird stuff is going on,\" mused Evercore ISI's Dennis DeBusschere, in a note attempting to explain the government-bond rally. \"SPAC's and Solar are getting hit hard on a relative basis, which is odd given the move lower in 10 year yields. Some are citing that the retail investor-sponsored names are getting hit in general as they move away from the market. And why are homebuilders underperforming with 10 year yields collapsing?\"\nDave Nadig is a long-time student of market structure, including as one of the first developers of exchange-traded funds to help markets avoid another blow-up like 1987's Black Monday.\nNadig thinks markets are healthy -- that is, working efficiently and staying resilient, even through hiccups like the meme-stock rampage in the past couple of months and the Archegos family office blow-up. What's become \"very fragile,\" in his words, is price discovery.\n\"There are some fundamental underpinnings of how markets work that are dissolving,\" he said in an interview. \"What we're realizing is that there's a lot more noise and randomness in the market than people are willing to admit. Mostly what's changed is information flow and data moving faster and faster. Any model you build today by definition fails to take into account an acceleration tomorrow.\"\nTake the Gamestop Corp. $(GME)$frenzy that erupted in January . After a group of disgruntled traders spent several weeks targeting short sellers by driving the price of that stock higher, \"It's no longer a normal stock -- it's an externality in the market that has ripple effects some investors may not even be aware of,\" Nadig said.\nOlder investing models -- and algorithms -- are bumping up against new ones that take into account new conditions, a process Nadig calls \"an arms race,\" and one that's accelerated because of the modern speed of information flow and reaction functions.\n\"We're starting to see cracks in the traditional ways we've always analyzed markets,\" he said. \"We're no longer processing reality, we're processing information, and it gets priced in instantaneously. We've given up on analyzing.\"\nThat means that a headline, say, about a pause in the use of Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine shares trade lower, Nadig said. It means that for that day, the entire \"re-opening\" trade -- and by extension, some cyclical trades and some value plays -- suffers.\nFor Peter Andersen, who's managed money for nearly three decades and returned more than 40% for his clients in each of the the past two years, the market's fragility is frustrating. Andersen prides himself on \"fierce independence\" in stock selection that results in a macro-agnostic portfolio. Some of his recent investments have been in cybersecurity, data storage, and pet care.\nIn the year to date, however, one of Andersen's top picks, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP), is down 33%, for no logical reason, he noted. \"It's as if someone thinks everyone is going to euthanize their pets!\"\nStocks looked past the Johnson & Johnson news to close higher for the week with both the Dow and S&P500 index at new records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.\nThe coming week will bring U.S. economic data on the housing market, including existing- and new- home sales, and a raft of corporate earnings reports.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350354745,"gmtCreate":1616162592987,"gmtModify":1704791742529,"author":{"id":"3573080885425399","authorId":"3573080885425399","name":"MuNic","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573080885425399","authorIdStr":"3573080885425399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Slkz-recommended by Motley Fool","listText":"Slkz-recommended by Motley Fool","text":"Slkz-recommended by Motley Fool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350354745","repostId":"1137663173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350354319,"gmtCreate":1616162550531,"gmtModify":1704791740585,"author":{"id":"3573080885425399","authorId":"3573080885425399","name":"MuNic","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573080885425399","authorIdStr":"3573080885425399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But GM?","listText":"But GM?","text":"But GM?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350354319","repostId":"1137663173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
