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2021-03-19

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ who pump money in?

2021-06-29

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?

2021-02-16

$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.

2021-06-20

Be the lemming with life jacket

A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens

2021-06-27

Invest the undervalue and just wait.

Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can

2021-03-30

Ark

“替上帝配资”的女人！

2021-03-19

More seeking alpha article. Thanks

Alibaba stocks advanced more than 2%

2021-02-25

Seeking alpha article is the best

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-08

Nice

Alibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals

2021-07-07

Right management

何小鹏的第二个梦想

2021-07-01

Strong buy?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-29

The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?

Palantir: The Mass Exodus

2021-02-27

Fair value now

Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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And this correction is most likely already completed.Fundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.Alibaba Groupnow represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the n","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>From the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.</li>\n <li>The price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction.&nbsp;And this correction is most likely already completed.</li>\n <li>Fundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Thesis</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF)now represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the near future.</p>\n<p>Part 1: Fundamental analysis</p>\n<p>Among the fundamental analysis tools, in this case, I find DCF modeling the most suitable because this method gives a rough idea of a company’s current rational value based on its development trends, the situation in the debt market and current volatility. In addition, this method allows you to look at the company as unbiased as possible.</p>\n<p>The quality of the DCF model is largely determined by the quality of the long-term company’s revenue forecast, incorporated in the model. To consider a conservative scenario, when predicting Alibaba's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the lower bound of analysts'expectations. In my opinion, the CAGR of 15% over the next 10 years is more than realistic for Alibaba, given the current growth rate of China's economy. Let me remind you that the company receives more than 90% of its revenue in the domestic market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53010c963ff2d110ab8caa4b8639d3fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>In addition, the model assumes a gradual decrease in the operating margin to 11% in the terminal year. This condition is dictated by the desire to consider a pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is in line with the trend shown by the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f745edf64e78553f2d0975d39710a8e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p>\n<p>To calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, I used thecurrent yield of China 10-Year Bondas a risk-free rate for the Chinese market (3.11%),equity risk premium(5.4%) and 3-yearrolling beta coefficient(0.6). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1. To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 FY divided by the debt value for the same years. Here is the calculation:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f88ac415a591de21c8392e67a5b4494\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p>\n<p>Among other parameters, the following should be highlighted:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The relative size of CAPEX will remain at the five-year average.</li>\n <li>The tax rate will amount to 27%.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>And, here's the model itself:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c86901f09a266e8e3ceb828ab09f4a0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p>\n<p><i>The DCF-based target price of Alibaba's shares is ~$500, offering 130% upside. Please note that the considered scenario for the development of Alibaba cannot be called optimistic.</i></p>\n<p>Part 2: Technical analysis</p>\n<p>This block should begin with the fact that from the very moment of the IPO in 2017, the company's share price continues to move along the upward support. The monthly chart demonstrates this very well:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3c2a6bdf2aa4515f183e3906672ac9\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Separately, it is worth noting that the fall in the price of Alibaba shares, which we have been observing since the end of 2020, fully fits into this pattern.<i>In other words, in a technical context, nothing extraordinary has happened here over the past eight months.</i></p>\n<p>Now, let's move on to the weekly chart and take a closer look at the last two years.</p>\n<p>The last major full wave (growth and correction), which stands out in the dynamics of the company's share price, began in March 2020. And if we assume that in May 2021 the price of Alibaba's share reached its local minimum, then we get a pattern that is in very good agreement with theFibonacci retracement levels.In addition, the preservation of the macro uptrend is confirmed again because<i>the end of the wave is higher than its beginning.</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3600db32e0f86b2741bdbe516a7b19d2\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Now, let's move on to the daily chart and focus on the last eight months.</p>\n<p>The fall in the company's share price, which began in November last year, clearly consists of three waves, indicated in the following chart by the letters A, B, C. (<i>By the way, according to theElliott Wave Theory, the correction should consist of three waves.)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b790996d6facd6effb4a2b8e455800ba\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>In addition, for the last eight months, the price had been falling without breaking through the resistance line, which is marked in red on the previous chart. And only on June 24, the share price rose above this line. A day later, the stock rallied above the 50-day moving average.<i>Agree, the technical picture is quite clear and positive.</i></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also want to draw your attention to the dynamics of theMACDindicator:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346c067c36b033a29857ae91717fc897\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of the year, this indicator has been showing a steady upward trend. And now it is already in the positive zone.</p>\n<p><i>In my opinion, all this indicates that the correction is most likely completed. Now a new, upward wave is emerging.</i></p>\n<p>And one more thing. Shares of Alibaba, much like the shares of most public companies, follow their long-term exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Here is this trend:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc925fcc792b16d970c8a0da5cd8202\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p>\n<p>Now, the company's stock price is below this trend by one standard deviation. But overall, the trend doesn't seem broken.<i>And just a return of the price to the balanced state within the framework of this model would mean an increase of 35%.</i></p>\n<p>Bottom line</p>\n<p>In the context of investments, the key factors for success are patience and objectivity in the perception of the situation. In my opinion, this is even more important than deep theoretical knowledge.</p>\n<p>I do not and cannot have all the information regarding Alibaba Group. But I clearly see that in the context of technical analysis, the situation here is positive. Moreover, the price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.</p>\n<p>Fundamental analysis is no less unambiguous. The undervaluation of the company is at least 100%.</p>\n<p>In talking about Alibaba, it is impossible to ignore the sovereign risks, which have especially increased in the last year. Much has already been written on this topic, in particular, I evenassessedthese risks through the calculation of the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). But any risk comes at a price. And in my opinion, it is the technical analysis that shows well that this risk is already taken into account in the price of the company.</p>\n<p>Therefore, there is no need to complicate things. You just need to be patient. The company's price is potentially prone to rise in price by at least 30% in the next six months.</p>\n<p>Just be patient!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 15:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals><strong>seeking alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFrom the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.\nThe price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195805799","content_text":"Summary\n\nFrom the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.\nThe price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.\n\nThesis\nAlibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF)now represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the near future.\nPart 1: Fundamental analysis\nAmong the fundamental analysis tools, in this case, I find DCF modeling the most suitable because this method gives a rough idea of a company’s current rational value based on its development trends, the situation in the debt market and current volatility. In addition, this method allows you to look at the company as unbiased as possible.\nThe quality of the DCF model is largely determined by the quality of the long-term company’s revenue forecast, incorporated in the model. To consider a conservative scenario, when predicting Alibaba's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the lower bound of analysts'expectations. In my opinion, the CAGR of 15% over the next 10 years is more than realistic for Alibaba, given the current growth rate of China's economy. Let me remind you that the company receives more than 90% of its revenue in the domestic market.\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nIn addition, the model assumes a gradual decrease in the operating margin to 11% in the terminal year. This condition is dictated by the desire to consider a pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is in line with the trend shown by the company.\nData byYCharts\nTo calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, I used thecurrent yield of China 10-Year Bondas a risk-free rate for the Chinese market (3.11%),equity risk premium(5.4%) and 3-yearrolling beta coefficient(0.6). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1. To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 FY divided by the debt value for the same years. Here is the calculation:\nSource: Author\nAmong other parameters, the following should be highlighted:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX will remain at the five-year average.\nThe tax rate will amount to 27%.\n\nAnd, here's the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price of Alibaba's shares is ~$500, offering 130% upside. Please note that the considered scenario for the development of Alibaba cannot be called optimistic.\nPart 2: Technical analysis\nThis block should begin with the fact that from the very moment of the IPO in 2017, the company's share price continues to move along the upward support. The monthly chart demonstrates this very well:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSeparately, it is worth noting that the fall in the price of Alibaba shares, which we have been observing since the end of 2020, fully fits into this pattern.In other words, in a technical context, nothing extraordinary has happened here over the past eight months.\nNow, let's move on to the weekly chart and take a closer look at the last two years.\nThe last major full wave (growth and correction), which stands out in the dynamics of the company's share price, began in March 2020. And if we assume that in May 2021 the price of Alibaba's share reached its local minimum, then we get a pattern that is in very good agreement with theFibonacci retracement levels.In addition, the preservation of the macro uptrend is confirmed again becausethe end of the wave is higher than its beginning.\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nNow, let's move on to the daily chart and focus on the last eight months.\nThe fall in the company's share price, which began in November last year, clearly consists of three waves, indicated in the following chart by the letters A, B, C. (By the way, according to theElliott Wave Theory, the correction should consist of three waves.)\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn addition, for the last eight months, the price had been falling without breaking through the resistance line, which is marked in red on the previous chart. And only on June 24, the share price rose above this line. A day later, the stock rallied above the 50-day moving average.Agree, the technical picture is quite clear and positive.\nMoreover, I also want to draw your attention to the dynamics of theMACDindicator:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSince the beginning of the year, this indicator has been showing a steady upward trend. And now it is already in the positive zone.\nIn my opinion, all this indicates that the correction is most likely completed. Now a new, upward wave is emerging.\nAnd one more thing. Shares of Alibaba, much like the shares of most public companies, follow their long-term exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Here is this trend:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nNow, the company's stock price is below this trend by one standard deviation. But overall, the trend doesn't seem broken.And just a return of the price to the balanced state within the framework of this model would mean an increase of 35%.\nBottom line\nIn the context of investments, the key factors for success are patience and objectivity in the perception of the situation. In my opinion, this is even more important than deep theoretical knowledge.\nI do not and cannot have all the information regarding Alibaba Group. But I clearly see that in the context of technical analysis, the situation here is positive. Moreover, the price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamental analysis is no less unambiguous. The undervaluation of the company is at least 100%.\nIn talking about Alibaba, it is impossible to ignore the sovereign risks, which have especially increased in the last year. Much has already been written on this topic, in particular, I evenassessedthese risks through the calculation of the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). But any risk comes at a price. And in my opinion, it is the technical analysis that shows well that this risk is already taken into account in the price of the company.\nTherefore, there is no need to complicate things. You just need to be patient. The company's price is potentially prone to rise in price by at least 30% in the next six months.\nJust be patient!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140388968,"gmtCreate":1625629616454,"gmtModify":1703745273605,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Right management","listText":"Right management","text":"Right management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140388968","repostId":"1157988669","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157988669","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625623393,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157988669?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 10:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"何小鹏的第二个梦想","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157988669","media":"FN商业","summary":"何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上","content":"<blockquote>\n 何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742f2336829be615cea2b9a16f842a2e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。</p>\n<p>7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。</p>\n<p>小鹏汽车何小鹏，带着他的第二个梦想，朝新造车的深水区不断下潜。</p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p>2014年6月11日，阿里巴巴以43.5亿美元的现金加股权收购UC，<b>创下了国内移动互联网史上的并购记录。</b>成为阿里全资子公司后，UC被合并至阿里体系内。</p>\n<p>创办UC整整十年后，实现了财务自由的何小鹏，与俞永福一起加入阿里，这一年，马云是中国首富。</p>\n<p>进入阿里之后，何小鹏担任UC的CEO，一年后成为阿里移动事业群总裁，后又调任阿里游戏董事长，2017年担任土豆网总裁。</p>\n<p>但<b>何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。</b>或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。</p>\n<p>1999年，华南理工迎来毕业季，何小鹏和另外两位同学上了一辆大巴车，跟随导师去不同的企业面试，其中有两家国企，一家私企。</p>\n<p>大巴车停在这家名为“亚信科技”的私企门前，只有何小鹏一人下了车，在那个年代，很少有人愿意放弃国企的铁饭碗。但何小鹏的想法很不一样，他的愿望是40岁之前实现财务自由，然后退休。</p>\n<p><b>没有人能预测未来，命运眷顾幸运者的方式充满了戏剧性。</b></p>\n<p>亚信科技的创始人田朔宁，是后来鼎鼎有名的“互联网先生”，亚信则是“中国互联网的建筑师”，不过，这都是后话了。</p>\n<p>毕业之后，何小鹏正式进入亚信广州办事处，从软件测试工程师做起。</p>\n<p>在亚信工作期间，何小鹏认识了同系师兄梁捷。梁捷技术实力强，擅长写代码。两人在同一个研发团队，配合非常默契，共同开发了大容量邮件系统，成为公司的旗舰产品。</p>\n<p>2000年，亚信在纳斯达克上市，何小鹏入职满一年，有1500股，按照20美元的上市股价，相当于3万美元。他的领导给他股权协议书时说，“<b>你一来公司就有一套房了</b>。”</p>\n<p>但在2004年，何小鹏觉得每个月拿几千块的打工人无法实现财务自由，于是他辞职创业，跟随移动互联网刚刚兴起的潮流，与梁捷一起创办了UC。</p>\n<p>那时，中国的互联网行业刚刚迈入第一个十年，何小鹏和梁捷都是最早一批用手机“网上冲浪”的人，也最早发现了移动互联网的创业机会。</p>\n<p>创业初期，UC开发出了两款产品：UC Mail和UC Web。UC代表You Can，意思是“你（随时）可以收发邮件和访问互联网”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab609b1da7cd95d17eeb37c2d16ab21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，受限于移动互联网和硬件设备的普及程度，用户尚未养成用手机收发邮件的习惯，不过这款产品引起了丁磊的注意。<b>丁磊同样是做邮箱起家，对于市面上的同类产品非常敏感。</b></p>\n<p>好巧不巧，网易邮箱的开发人员之一陈磊华，是何小鹏的同学，由他牵线搭桥，双方见了面。</p>\n<p>酒桌上，丁磊听说UC的团队连办公室都租不起，先是借了80万，又把自己的办公室借给何小鹏办公。<b>这间办公室，再次为何小鹏打开了幸运的大门。</b></p>\n<p>UC的团队搬进丁磊的办公室，隔壁就是网易总编辑李学凌。李学凌后来辞职创业，就是YY的创始人。2006年，李学凌把何小鹏介绍给联想投资（现君联资本）副总裁俞永福，俞永福非常想投资UC，但项目因为一票之差没有通过。</p>\n<p>俞永福不甘心，他曾在UC考察过半年，非常看好这个项目。于是，投资决策会议结束的当晚，俞永福在北京街头的酒吧里见到了雷军，而雷军听完后只说了一句话：<b>“你去UC，我就投。”</b></p>\n<p>于是，俞永福辞掉了联想投资副总裁的职位，成为UC董事长和CEO，并很快为UC完成了400万元的融资，其中200万是雷军给的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9db67406720f587d94f553fb67c2cf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>再后来，雷军离开金山之后，也曾担任过UC董事长。他是何小鹏的湖北老乡，也是何小鹏两次创业的投资人。</p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p>时间回到2014年6月13日，UC刚被并入阿里第二天，大洋彼岸的蝴蝶扇动了翅膀，马斯克宣布特斯拉将采取“开源模式”，随后，造车新势力“蔚小理”相继成立。</p>\n<p>同一年，马斯克来到中国，向国内用户交付了首批特斯拉汽车，何小鹏是首批用户。他曾不止一次提到，坐上特斯拉之后，“<b>第一感受就是世界要变，汽车行业的变革来了。</b>”</p>\n<p>何小鹏在一篇自述中提到，“<b>2014年阿里整合UC之后，我提出在阿里体系造车，被无情否掉了。</b>我喜欢汽车，也相信智能汽车的未来，但自己造车可能面临更多责任、焦虑和压力，也许作为投资人更好。”</p>\n<p>那时候，<b>37岁的何小鹏提前三年完成了财务自由的目标</b>，但他首先想到的不是退休，而是财务自由后的痛苦、空虚和迷茫。</p>\n<p>于是，<b>何小鹏开始以投资人的身份发起并推动造车项目。</b></p>\n<p>这个造车团队中，有出身于清华大学汽车工程专业的夏珩，他曾在广汽传祺刚刚成立时加入，参与了传祺诞生的整个过程。</p>\n<p>打造“中国特斯拉”的想法让夏珩很兴奋，于是他毅然离开了广汽。</p>\n<p>创立小鹏之前，夏珩的身份是广汽新能源中心控制科科长，在广汽负责开展多款新能源汽车及智能汽车的控制系统开发工作。</p>\n<p>另一位小鹏汽车创始人何涛，是夏珩的学弟和同事。2010年毕业后进入广汽研究院工作，从事新能源汽车车辆控制相关系统的研发工作。由于技术能力较强，何涛随后又以项目经理的身份统筹广汽的无人驾驶项目推进。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55bb88fe0777b1f5dfe5d1bd9a2520c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\"><span>（何涛、何小鹏、夏珩）</span></p>\n<p>小鹏汽车的初创团队成立之后，距离何小鹏从投资人变成创始人，还差了<b>一通电话</b>。</p>\n<p>2017年2月16日，何小鹏的孩子出生，刚刚抱上几分钟，就接到一个电话。这个电话来自于被他调侃为“促使我创业的坏人”——GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋。</p>\n<p>“制造业升级，出行行业升级，已经大势所趋了。你要赶紧出来，再不出来这个Windows（窗口期）就没有了。”</p>\n<p>据何小鹏回忆，自从以投资人的身份组建造车团队后，就一直有再次创业与造车的想法，直到接到电话的那一刻，内心突然产生了一种强烈的情感：要做一些事情证明给儿子看。</p>\n<p><b>这通电话，正式激活了何小鹏的创业梦。</b></p>\n<p>半年后，在UC 13岁生日那天，何小鹏正式离开阿里。时任阿里文化娱乐集团董事长兼CEO俞永福在内部信中说，何小鹏将正式“荣退”，并“开启自己新的一段追梦之旅”。</p>\n<p>那一天，何小鹏发了一条朋友圈：创业一轮回，苦辣酸甜咸，归来仍是少年。</p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p>在何小鹏正式加入之前，小鹏汽车的造车计划已经开始推进，包括获得Pre-A轮融资和22亿元A轮融资、发布首款量产车Beta版、百亿级生产基地落户肇庆市区、获得销售资格等。</p>\n<p>何小鹏的加入，带来了创业经验和广阔的人脉。</p>\n<p>加入一年内，小鹏汽车完成了20亿融资，股东包括阿里、富士康、IDG等投资巨头。同时，何小鹏还挖来多位技术高管，补充团队人才。</p>\n<p>2017年10月12日，何小鹏加入小鹏汽车两个多月后，小鹏汽车首款量产车型正式下线，成为造车新势力中最先实现量产的。</p>\n<p>2018年1月10日，小鹏汽车G3在美国CES国际电子消费展上全球首发。在国内，小鹏汽车G3现身极客公园创新节展台。同月，小鹏汽车交付了首批39辆新车。</p>\n<p>2018年3月，小鹏汽车1.0量产车型获得中国造车新势力量产车落地的首张新能源号牌。</p>\n<p>然而，随之而来的是小鹏的降速，小鹏汽车首批产品并未上市销售，而是给员工在不同的场景继续驾驶测试。</p>\n<p>何小鹏态度很坚决：“消费者绝不应该是我们的首批用户。”</p>\n<p>直到2018年12月12日，小鹏汽车宣布G3正式上市，并同期启动交付，新车分为G3 520、G3 400两个型号，综合补贴后全国统一售价区间为14.38-19.68万元，首批卖出一万多辆。</p>\n<p>但这时，小鹏汽车在交付层面上已经被蔚来汽车赶超。</p>\n<p>进入2019年，小鹏汽车的发展计划中提到，前端要建成200座超级充电站，增幅为50%；中端小鹏汽车要将公司规模拓展至5000人，增幅为40%；后端肇庆工厂要开工并交付4万部新车，增幅超过7563%。</p>\n<p>于是，小鹏汽车开始搭建VIE结构，并随之传出了启动在美IPO的消息，但新能源市场的剧变来得猝不及防。</p>\n<p>2019年3月，有关部门下发《关于进一步完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知》，到6月底，新能源车国补减半、地补直接消失。</p>\n<p>随后，新能源汽车市场初次遇冷。</p>\n<p>“目前，小鹏汽车对于IPO的时间和地点都没有计划表。”3月28日，何小鹏对外宣布。</p>\n<p>除了市场方面的波动和尚未列进计划的IPO，小鹏汽车也开始遭遇用户的质疑。</p>\n<p>2019年7月，小鹏汽车推出G3 2020款，但很快引发小鹏汽车老车主的强烈不满。对比2019款G3，新款车型不仅续航能力提升，且价格还低于老款。</p>\n<p>7月13日，小鹏汽车遭遇了最大的危机，一大波车主跑到小鹏汽车总部，各个城市的服务中心，拉起横幅维权，控诉小鹏汽车涉嫌消费欺诈。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a12e066dfe967e8bf65b6e3916e2b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>无奈之下，小鹏汽车给出补偿方案：老车主在3年之内增换购小鹏汽车任何一款车型时，在享受拟购买新车当期所有促销政策权益的基础上，额外享受1万元专属补贴权益。</p>\n<p>一个多月后，何小鹏在接受媒体采访时发出感叹，“<b>在汽车行业里面除了体力累、脑力累，还有一个心累</b>”。用他的话说，自己是从互联网圈的“舒适区”进入了汽车圈“艰苦区”。</p>\n<p>实际上，从2018年到2020年中旬，何小鹏多次流露负面情绪。</p>\n<p>他曾经对于交付充满痛苦：“以前我认为研发和制造很难，交付不是很难，但现在发现交付的难度远远比造出几百台要高。为了交付，需要有预定和销售环节，内部要建一个巨大的CRM（客户关系管理系统），数十个信息化系统。为了销售，在全国要开四十多个公司，因为每一个地方要进行交付，要开发票。我们在每个地方都要有充电站，售后怎么办，维修怎么办……<b>现在的痛苦我觉得会持续两年，持续到2020年。</b>”</p>\n<p>到了2020年，痛苦仍然持续。这一年6月，何小鹏在微博发出一张合照，照片中何小鹏、李斌、李想相依而坐，李斌的双手亲密地搭在旁边两人的肩上。何小鹏配文说：“三个苦逼，在忆苦思变......”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8d8caa7b954731b82901887f5148db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>好在一时的“艰苦”并不会打倒一个行业，尤其是新能源汽车这种注定会上升的行业。</p>\n<p>2020年7月，小鹏汽车又发布了第二款量产车型P7智能轿跑。P7对标国产特斯拉Model 3，续航里程达到了706公里，补贴后售价23万元左右。</p>\n<p>造车新势力最大的“难”在于自建工厂，不过当初投资20亿建造的肇庆工厂已经开始收获成果，P7就是由肇庆工厂生产的。</p>\n<p>每个月的交付数量督促着何小鹏不断前进，但在这个“烧钱”成为共识的战场上，融资问题一直困扰着圈内的各个玩家。</p>\n<p>由于量产的需求，造车对于资金的要求极高，200亿只是入行的门槛。何小鹏自己先后投入的3亿美金像是毛毛雨，小鹏汽车累计10轮融资超过180亿元，投资方除了老朋友阿里巴巴和小米集团，还有红杉、高瓴、富士康和IDG资本。</p>\n<p>在这个时候，蔚来汽车已经成为造车三剑客中领跑的一方，于2018年9月12日在美国纽交所上市，募集了10亿美元；李想的理想汽车紧随其后，于2020年7月30日在美国纳斯达克上市，募集10.5亿美元。</p>\n<p>而小鹏汽车8月27日登陆美国纽交所，募集资金15亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p>小鹏汽车即将登陆港股，完成“双重主要上市”。</p>\n<p>由于相距纽交所挂牌上市时间不满一年，与京东、百度、哔哩哔哩等一批赴港二次上市的中概股不同，小鹏汽车无法满足港交所对于“两个会计年度”的要求，只能选择“双重一级市场”的方式赴港募资。</p>\n<p>与此同时，蔚来和理想也透露出赴香港上市的意愿。</p>\n<p><b>迫切的上市需求折射出新能源汽车行业的发展现状</b>：对于资金的渴求和资本市场的认可相得益彰；而相约回港上市，也从侧面反映了新能源汽车核心市场的悄然转变。</p>\n<p><b>在资本市场上，新能源汽车行业的想象空间持续滋养着新势力的股价。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉成为市值最高的车企，蔚小理的市值也超过了很多百年车企。但从销量规模来看，双方的差距仍大。</p>\n<p>今年刚进入7月，造车新势力们便迫不及待地亮出6月销量成绩单。其中，蔚来以8083辆交付量继续领跑，理想以7713辆的成绩成为第二，小鹏交付6565辆，位列第三。</p>\n<p>2021年以来，新能源汽车行业的规模平稳扩大，交付量最高的蔚来正在冲击10万辆的年销量，理想、小鹏则有机会冲击8万辆年销量。</p>\n<p>不过，<b>以千为单位的月交付量，放在百万级出货量的汽车市场上仍然显得小众</b>，这是产能所造成的限制，也是想象力拓展的空间。</p>\n<p>得益于出货量的提升，小鹏汽车的营收与毛利同步增长，并开始缩小与同行的距离。其招股书显示，小鹏汽车2021年第一季度共实现营收29.51亿人民币，较2020年4.12亿人民币同比增长616.1%，增速层面超过了481.8%的蔚来汽车和319.8%的理想汽车，不过同期蔚来汽车营收79.8亿人民币，理想汽车营收35.8亿人民币。</p>\n<p>此外，小鹏汽车开始进入产能爬坡阶段。招股书显示，小鹏汽车生产线利用率已经接近40%，其中海马工厂产能利用率由2018年的6.4%已提升至40.6%，肇庆新工厂的产能利用率也达到38.5%，接近中国乘用车40%的平均产能利用率。</p>\n<p><b>不过，小鹏汽车依然没有摆脱亏损困境。</b>小鹏在招股书中预警风险，企业目前仍在产生亏损和负经营现金流，这一情况可能还会持续一段时间。</p>\n<p>财报显示，过去三年小鹏已累计亏损超78亿元。2021年1-3月，小鹏净亏损为7.866亿元，相比去年同期6.498亿元进一步扩大，亏损的主要原因是高额投入的研发费用、营销推广和广告费用，其中，研发费用达到5.351 亿元。</p>\n<p><b>造车新势力三巨头中，蔚来汽车以品牌定位和服务体系领先，理想汽车喜欢讲述增程技术背后的电量焦虑故事，而小鹏汽车为自己打造的护城河则是“智能”。</b></p>\n<p>在招股书中，小鹏汽车也表示其最关键的核心竞争力是智能，即所有软件和核心硬件都进行自主研发。不同于其他主机厂，小鹏汽车自主设计和开发了全栈式的自动驾驶技术和操作系统，并表示是第一家自主研发出自动驾驶软件，并将其实现商业化应用的造车新势力公司。</p>\n<p>以技术为核，是由小鹏汽车创始团队的基因决定的，除了两位联合创始人的技术出身，还有占比近40%的研发岗位。招股书提到，截止2021年3月31日，小鹏汽车全球共有员工6132人，其中39.8%是研发岗，包括汽车设计与工程、自动驾驶和智能操作系统三大类别。</p>\n<p>而在“双重主要上市”之后，配合新能源市场讲不完的故事，和以自建工厂为轴所实现的研发、设计、生产、销售服务的完整闭环，资金已经不再是最大的难题。</p>\n<p>下一个坎，在于商业模式层面的自我造血，技术层面的智能研发，以及手机厂商们的凶猛入侵。</p>\n<p><b>05</b></p>\n<p>“<b>我欢迎更多人进来，这五年还是有一些机会，2025年以后就是一个从春秋到战国的变革。</b>”在上海车展上，何小鹏曾如此描述新能源汽车市场的竞争。</p>\n<p>当初为何小鹏解决燃眉之急的雷军，已经手持百亿美元站在了新造车的风口上。十年一个轮回，新旧故事交替上演。</p>\n<p>而连续创业者何小鹏，虽然提前三年完成了财富自由的梦想，但依然下定决心进入了新造车的浑水之中。一年之内两次上市，小鹏汽车的身份在探路者、追赶者与领先者之间完成了转换。</p>","source":"lsy1590629264667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>何小鹏的第二个梦想</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n何小鹏的第二个梦想\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 10:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw><strong>FN商业</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。\n7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。\n小鹏汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d86c8942d70bb8f5f19dc3d70ace2d9","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157988669","content_text":"何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。\n7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。\n小鹏汽车何小鹏，带着他的第二个梦想，朝新造车的深水区不断下潜。\n01\n2014年6月11日，阿里巴巴以43.5亿美元的现金加股权收购UC，创下了国内移动互联网史上的并购记录。成为阿里全资子公司后，UC被合并至阿里体系内。\n创办UC整整十年后，实现了财务自由的何小鹏，与俞永福一起加入阿里，这一年，马云是中国首富。\n进入阿里之后，何小鹏担任UC的CEO，一年后成为阿里移动事业群总裁，后又调任阿里游戏董事长，2017年担任土豆网总裁。\n但何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n1999年，华南理工迎来毕业季，何小鹏和另外两位同学上了一辆大巴车，跟随导师去不同的企业面试，其中有两家国企，一家私企。\n大巴车停在这家名为“亚信科技”的私企门前，只有何小鹏一人下了车，在那个年代，很少有人愿意放弃国企的铁饭碗。但何小鹏的想法很不一样，他的愿望是40岁之前实现财务自由，然后退休。\n没有人能预测未来，命运眷顾幸运者的方式充满了戏剧性。\n亚信科技的创始人田朔宁，是后来鼎鼎有名的“互联网先生”，亚信则是“中国互联网的建筑师”，不过，这都是后话了。\n毕业之后，何小鹏正式进入亚信广州办事处，从软件测试工程师做起。\n在亚信工作期间，何小鹏认识了同系师兄梁捷。梁捷技术实力强，擅长写代码。两人在同一个研发团队，配合非常默契，共同开发了大容量邮件系统，成为公司的旗舰产品。\n2000年，亚信在纳斯达克上市，何小鹏入职满一年，有1500股，按照20美元的上市股价，相当于3万美元。他的领导给他股权协议书时说，“你一来公司就有一套房了。”\n但在2004年，何小鹏觉得每个月拿几千块的打工人无法实现财务自由，于是他辞职创业，跟随移动互联网刚刚兴起的潮流，与梁捷一起创办了UC。\n那时，中国的互联网行业刚刚迈入第一个十年，何小鹏和梁捷都是最早一批用手机“网上冲浪”的人，也最早发现了移动互联网的创业机会。\n创业初期，UC开发出了两款产品：UC Mail和UC Web。UC代表You Can，意思是“你（随时）可以收发邮件和访问互联网”。\n\n但是，受限于移动互联网和硬件设备的普及程度，用户尚未养成用手机收发邮件的习惯，不过这款产品引起了丁磊的注意。丁磊同样是做邮箱起家，对于市面上的同类产品非常敏感。\n好巧不巧，网易邮箱的开发人员之一陈磊华，是何小鹏的同学，由他牵线搭桥，双方见了面。\n酒桌上，丁磊听说UC的团队连办公室都租不起，先是借了80万，又把自己的办公室借给何小鹏办公。这间办公室，再次为何小鹏打开了幸运的大门。\nUC的团队搬进丁磊的办公室，隔壁就是网易总编辑李学凌。李学凌后来辞职创业，就是YY的创始人。2006年，李学凌把何小鹏介绍给联想投资（现君联资本）副总裁俞永福，俞永福非常想投资UC，但项目因为一票之差没有通过。\n俞永福不甘心，他曾在UC考察过半年，非常看好这个项目。于是，投资决策会议结束的当晚，俞永福在北京街头的酒吧里见到了雷军，而雷军听完后只说了一句话：“你去UC，我就投。”\n于是，俞永福辞掉了联想投资副总裁的职位，成为UC董事长和CEO，并很快为UC完成了400万元的融资，其中200万是雷军给的。\n\n再后来，雷军离开金山之后，也曾担任过UC董事长。他是何小鹏的湖北老乡，也是何小鹏两次创业的投资人。\n02\n时间回到2014年6月13日，UC刚被并入阿里第二天，大洋彼岸的蝴蝶扇动了翅膀，马斯克宣布特斯拉将采取“开源模式”，随后，造车新势力“蔚小理”相继成立。\n同一年，马斯克来到中国，向国内用户交付了首批特斯拉汽车，何小鹏是首批用户。他曾不止一次提到，坐上特斯拉之后，“第一感受就是世界要变，汽车行业的变革来了。”\n何小鹏在一篇自述中提到，“2014年阿里整合UC之后，我提出在阿里体系造车，被无情否掉了。我喜欢汽车，也相信智能汽车的未来，但自己造车可能面临更多责任、焦虑和压力，也许作为投资人更好。”\n那时候，37岁的何小鹏提前三年完成了财务自由的目标，但他首先想到的不是退休，而是财务自由后的痛苦、空虚和迷茫。\n于是，何小鹏开始以投资人的身份发起并推动造车项目。\n这个造车团队中，有出身于清华大学汽车工程专业的夏珩，他曾在广汽传祺刚刚成立时加入，参与了传祺诞生的整个过程。\n打造“中国特斯拉”的想法让夏珩很兴奋，于是他毅然离开了广汽。\n创立小鹏之前，夏珩的身份是广汽新能源中心控制科科长，在广汽负责开展多款新能源汽车及智能汽车的控制系统开发工作。\n另一位小鹏汽车创始人何涛，是夏珩的学弟和同事。2010年毕业后进入广汽研究院工作，从事新能源汽车车辆控制相关系统的研发工作。由于技术能力较强，何涛随后又以项目经理的身份统筹广汽的无人驾驶项目推进。\n（何涛、何小鹏、夏珩）\n小鹏汽车的初创团队成立之后，距离何小鹏从投资人变成创始人，还差了一通电话。\n2017年2月16日，何小鹏的孩子出生，刚刚抱上几分钟，就接到一个电话。这个电话来自于被他调侃为“促使我创业的坏人”——GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋。\n“制造业升级，出行行业升级，已经大势所趋了。你要赶紧出来，再不出来这个Windows（窗口期）就没有了。”\n据何小鹏回忆，自从以投资人的身份组建造车团队后，就一直有再次创业与造车的想法，直到接到电话的那一刻，内心突然产生了一种强烈的情感：要做一些事情证明给儿子看。\n这通电话，正式激活了何小鹏的创业梦。\n半年后，在UC 13岁生日那天，何小鹏正式离开阿里。时任阿里文化娱乐集团董事长兼CEO俞永福在内部信中说，何小鹏将正式“荣退”，并“开启自己新的一段追梦之旅”。\n那一天，何小鹏发了一条朋友圈：创业一轮回，苦辣酸甜咸，归来仍是少年。\n03\n在何小鹏正式加入之前，小鹏汽车的造车计划已经开始推进，包括获得Pre-A轮融资和22亿元A轮融资、发布首款量产车Beta版、百亿级生产基地落户肇庆市区、获得销售资格等。\n何小鹏的加入，带来了创业经验和广阔的人脉。\n加入一年内，小鹏汽车完成了20亿融资，股东包括阿里、富士康、IDG等投资巨头。同时，何小鹏还挖来多位技术高管，补充团队人才。\n2017年10月12日，何小鹏加入小鹏汽车两个多月后，小鹏汽车首款量产车型正式下线，成为造车新势力中最先实现量产的。\n2018年1月10日，小鹏汽车G3在美国CES国际电子消费展上全球首发。在国内，小鹏汽车G3现身极客公园创新节展台。同月，小鹏汽车交付了首批39辆新车。\n2018年3月，小鹏汽车1.0量产车型获得中国造车新势力量产车落地的首张新能源号牌。\n然而，随之而来的是小鹏的降速，小鹏汽车首批产品并未上市销售，而是给员工在不同的场景继续驾驶测试。\n何小鹏态度很坚决：“消费者绝不应该是我们的首批用户。”\n直到2018年12月12日，小鹏汽车宣布G3正式上市，并同期启动交付，新车分为G3 520、G3 400两个型号，综合补贴后全国统一售价区间为14.38-19.68万元，首批卖出一万多辆。\n但这时，小鹏汽车在交付层面上已经被蔚来汽车赶超。\n进入2019年，小鹏汽车的发展计划中提到，前端要建成200座超级充电站，增幅为50%；中端小鹏汽车要将公司规模拓展至5000人，增幅为40%；后端肇庆工厂要开工并交付4万部新车，增幅超过7563%。\n于是，小鹏汽车开始搭建VIE结构，并随之传出了启动在美IPO的消息，但新能源市场的剧变来得猝不及防。\n2019年3月，有关部门下发《关于进一步完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知》，到6月底，新能源车国补减半、地补直接消失。\n随后，新能源汽车市场初次遇冷。\n“目前，小鹏汽车对于IPO的时间和地点都没有计划表。”3月28日，何小鹏对外宣布。\n除了市场方面的波动和尚未列进计划的IPO，小鹏汽车也开始遭遇用户的质疑。\n2019年7月，小鹏汽车推出G3 2020款，但很快引发小鹏汽车老车主的强烈不满。对比2019款G3，新款车型不仅续航能力提升，且价格还低于老款。\n7月13日，小鹏汽车遭遇了最大的危机，一大波车主跑到小鹏汽车总部，各个城市的服务中心，拉起横幅维权，控诉小鹏汽车涉嫌消费欺诈。\n\n无奈之下，小鹏汽车给出补偿方案：老车主在3年之内增换购小鹏汽车任何一款车型时，在享受拟购买新车当期所有促销政策权益的基础上，额外享受1万元专属补贴权益。\n一个多月后，何小鹏在接受媒体采访时发出感叹，“在汽车行业里面除了体力累、脑力累，还有一个心累”。用他的话说，自己是从互联网圈的“舒适区”进入了汽车圈“艰苦区”。\n实际上，从2018年到2020年中旬，何小鹏多次流露负面情绪。\n他曾经对于交付充满痛苦：“以前我认为研发和制造很难，交付不是很难，但现在发现交付的难度远远比造出几百台要高。为了交付，需要有预定和销售环节，内部要建一个巨大的CRM（客户关系管理系统），数十个信息化系统。为了销售，在全国要开四十多个公司，因为每一个地方要进行交付，要开发票。我们在每个地方都要有充电站，售后怎么办，维修怎么办……现在的痛苦我觉得会持续两年，持续到2020年。”\n到了2020年，痛苦仍然持续。这一年6月，何小鹏在微博发出一张合照，照片中何小鹏、李斌、李想相依而坐，李斌的双手亲密地搭在旁边两人的肩上。何小鹏配文说：“三个苦逼，在忆苦思变......”\n\n好在一时的“艰苦”并不会打倒一个行业，尤其是新能源汽车这种注定会上升的行业。\n2020年7月，小鹏汽车又发布了第二款量产车型P7智能轿跑。P7对标国产特斯拉Model 3，续航里程达到了706公里，补贴后售价23万元左右。\n造车新势力最大的“难”在于自建工厂，不过当初投资20亿建造的肇庆工厂已经开始收获成果，P7就是由肇庆工厂生产的。\n每个月的交付数量督促着何小鹏不断前进，但在这个“烧钱”成为共识的战场上，融资问题一直困扰着圈内的各个玩家。\n由于量产的需求，造车对于资金的要求极高，200亿只是入行的门槛。何小鹏自己先后投入的3亿美金像是毛毛雨，小鹏汽车累计10轮融资超过180亿元，投资方除了老朋友阿里巴巴和小米集团，还有红杉、高瓴、富士康和IDG资本。\n在这个时候，蔚来汽车已经成为造车三剑客中领跑的一方，于2018年9月12日在美国纽交所上市，募集了10亿美元；李想的理想汽车紧随其后，于2020年7月30日在美国纳斯达克上市，募集10.5亿美元。\n而小鹏汽车8月27日登陆美国纽交所，募集资金15亿美元。\n04\n小鹏汽车即将登陆港股，完成“双重主要上市”。\n由于相距纽交所挂牌上市时间不满一年，与京东、百度、哔哩哔哩等一批赴港二次上市的中概股不同，小鹏汽车无法满足港交所对于“两个会计年度”的要求，只能选择“双重一级市场”的方式赴港募资。\n与此同时，蔚来和理想也透露出赴香港上市的意愿。\n迫切的上市需求折射出新能源汽车行业的发展现状：对于资金的渴求和资本市场的认可相得益彰；而相约回港上市，也从侧面反映了新能源汽车核心市场的悄然转变。\n在资本市场上，新能源汽车行业的想象空间持续滋养着新势力的股价。\n特斯拉成为市值最高的车企，蔚小理的市值也超过了很多百年车企。但从销量规模来看，双方的差距仍大。\n今年刚进入7月，造车新势力们便迫不及待地亮出6月销量成绩单。其中，蔚来以8083辆交付量继续领跑，理想以7713辆的成绩成为第二，小鹏交付6565辆，位列第三。\n2021年以来，新能源汽车行业的规模平稳扩大，交付量最高的蔚来正在冲击10万辆的年销量，理想、小鹏则有机会冲击8万辆年销量。\n不过，以千为单位的月交付量，放在百万级出货量的汽车市场上仍然显得小众，这是产能所造成的限制，也是想象力拓展的空间。\n得益于出货量的提升，小鹏汽车的营收与毛利同步增长，并开始缩小与同行的距离。其招股书显示，小鹏汽车2021年第一季度共实现营收29.51亿人民币，较2020年4.12亿人民币同比增长616.1%，增速层面超过了481.8%的蔚来汽车和319.8%的理想汽车，不过同期蔚来汽车营收79.8亿人民币，理想汽车营收35.8亿人民币。\n此外，小鹏汽车开始进入产能爬坡阶段。招股书显示，小鹏汽车生产线利用率已经接近40%，其中海马工厂产能利用率由2018年的6.4%已提升至40.6%，肇庆新工厂的产能利用率也达到38.5%，接近中国乘用车40%的平均产能利用率。\n不过，小鹏汽车依然没有摆脱亏损困境。小鹏在招股书中预警风险，企业目前仍在产生亏损和负经营现金流，这一情况可能还会持续一段时间。\n财报显示，过去三年小鹏已累计亏损超78亿元。2021年1-3月，小鹏净亏损为7.866亿元，相比去年同期6.498亿元进一步扩大，亏损的主要原因是高额投入的研发费用、营销推广和广告费用，其中，研发费用达到5.351 亿元。\n造车新势力三巨头中，蔚来汽车以品牌定位和服务体系领先，理想汽车喜欢讲述增程技术背后的电量焦虑故事，而小鹏汽车为自己打造的护城河则是“智能”。\n在招股书中，小鹏汽车也表示其最关键的核心竞争力是智能，即所有软件和核心硬件都进行自主研发。不同于其他主机厂，小鹏汽车自主设计和开发了全栈式的自动驾驶技术和操作系统，并表示是第一家自主研发出自动驾驶软件，并将其实现商业化应用的造车新势力公司。\n以技术为核，是由小鹏汽车创始团队的基因决定的，除了两位联合创始人的技术出身，还有占比近40%的研发岗位。招股书提到，截止2021年3月31日，小鹏汽车全球共有员工6132人，其中39.8%是研发岗，包括汽车设计与工程、自动驾驶和智能操作系统三大类别。\n而在“双重主要上市”之后，配合新能源市场讲不完的故事，和以自建工厂为轴所实现的研发、设计、生产、销售服务的完整闭环，资金已经不再是最大的难题。\n下一个坎，在于商业模式层面的自我造血，技术层面的智能研发，以及手机厂商们的凶猛入侵。\n05\n“我欢迎更多人进来，这五年还是有一些机会，2025年以后就是一个从春秋到战国的变革。”在上海车展上，何小鹏曾如此描述新能源汽车市场的竞争。\n当初为何小鹏解决燃眉之急的雷军，已经手持百亿美元站在了新造车的风口上。十年一个轮回，新旧故事交替上演。\n而连续创业者何小鹏，虽然提前三年完成了财富自由的梦想，但依然下定决心进入了新造车的浑水之中。一年之内两次上市，小鹏汽车的身份在探路者、追赶者与领先者之间完成了转换。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151725833,"gmtCreate":1625108336922,"gmtModify":1703736324497,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong buy?","listText":"Strong buy?","text":"Strong buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151725833","repostId":"1176914673","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159070704,"gmtCreate":1624933283308,"gmtModify":1703848268959,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","listText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","text":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159070704","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105982179?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>\n <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>\n <li>The stock could rally further.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p><b>The Data</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p>\n<p>In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p>\n<p>But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p>\n<p>As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p>\n<p>But don't take my word for it.</p>\n<p>The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p>\n<p>Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p>\n<p>Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p>\n<p>This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1703848023079,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150797048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408630,"gmtCreate":1624776402120,"gmtModify":1703845020861,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","listText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","text":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124408630","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164132519,"gmtCreate":1624178867531,"gmtModify":1703830236330,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","listText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","text":"Be the lemming with life jacket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164132519","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355243216,"gmtCreate":1617079221735,"gmtModify":1704801677873,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ark","listText":"Ark","text":"Ark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355243216","repostId":"2123790280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2123790280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616991909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2123790280?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 12:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“替上帝配资”的女人！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2123790280","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。","content":"<blockquote>“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。</blockquote><p>很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：</p><p>她投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。</p><p>她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。</p><p>她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，自己也站在资管业风暴的中心。生于华尔街，她却抛弃传统，不顾“纪律”，最终走上一条离经叛道的投资之路，时至今日，一度风光无限，又备受质疑。楼之倾覆或在一夜之间，多少人看过它高楼起，就多少人想看它楼倾覆。</p><p>而要问这一切是如何开始的，ARK Invest的创始人、这位如今家喻户晓的年度“牛市女皇”——年过65岁的伍德女士（Cathie Wood），坐在某张舒服的座椅上，捋了捋及肩的灰褐色长发，扶稳了她的标志性黑框眼镜，徐徐回忆起多年前那个夏天的午后：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c69c183f3df90b688867160c4eb35b5\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><blockquote>那是个美丽的夏日，我回到家里，周围是一片陌生的静寂。三个孩子去基督营了，还有别的什么活动，我突然意识到，接下来两周我都要一个人度过了。</blockquote><blockquote>我和这样的日子分别太久了。走进厨房，我既不快乐也不悲伤，只是有些恍惚……直到一阵突如其来的撼动划破空气，我仿佛听到圣灵在对我说话——</blockquote><blockquote>“来吧，开启你的计划。”我听到他说。</blockquote><blockquote>她说你看，你一辈子都在研究颠覆性创新，何不试着颠覆下自己的行业呢？何不用新的技术革新它？何不将新的想法公之于众，用社交媒体传播它？何不叫上竞争对手，一起碰撞思维的火花？</blockquote><blockquote>他这样说，我遂这样做了。</blockquote><p>“她这样说，我遂这样做了”，于是2014年，57岁的伍德从大名鼎鼎的资管巨头联博（Alliance Bernstein）辞职，创立了这家属于自己的资管公司，并以《圣经》中圣物约柜（ARK）的名字为它命名。</p><p>正如旧约时代的以色列人带着约柜征战，相信神与约柜同在一样，这位虔诚的天主教徒坚信，ARK注定要将资本投向创新，投向未来，投向“神的手笔”，这是在完成上帝交托的使命。</p><p>现在很多中文媒体都将ARK译作“方舟”，虽非伍德本意，却也颇有其自视“身负世界命运”的神韵。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ef328f314a2d1785b3d3ba7f27e1f1\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>《圣经》中的“约柜”形象</span></p><p>六年过去，对ARK来说，2020年无疑是历史性的一年。3月的史诗级波动如一声号响，撞上疫情的美股在央行大放水中全面复苏，ARK则由于此前打着“颠覆性创新”的旗号狂买科技股和小盘股，成了本轮牛市的头号受益者，旗下ETF包揽全美基金年度冠亚季军，5只表现最好的ETF年度回报平均达141%，规模最高涨超10倍，仿佛神终于为其忠实的信徒降下恩典。</p><p>不过时间又来到今年二月，月初还风光无限的ARK，到了月底就随科技股下跌一路俯冲。越来越多质疑的声音开始涌现。人们说，伍德是否将重蹈上世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期那一大批明星基金经理的覆辙？他们先是飘飘然起飞，又随着泡沫破裂摔得一败涂地。</p><p>大起大落之中，几个月来，有关ARK和伍德本人的报道铺天盖地。<b>人们后知后觉地发现，这位自称替上帝配资本的“牛市女皇”，要不就是信仰界的“传教”高手、基金界的昙花一朵，要不，就可能真是资管业横空出世的颠覆者、是预示未来创新方向的“先知”。</b></p><p><b>游历的童年 好奇的孩子</b></p><p>真要追溯伍德对新生事物的情有独钟，可能还得从她不算安定的童年讲起。</p><p>1955年，伍德出生在美国洛杉矶的一个天主教移民家庭，从小诵经读卷，去教堂做礼拜。她的父母都来自爱尔兰，父亲曾经在爱尔兰陆军和美国空军服役，后来成为了一名成功的雷达系统工程师。</p><p>由于父亲工作的缘故，经常需要带着全家从一个军事基地搬到另一个基地，<b>小时候的伍德从没在哪个地方待过很久，12岁就已经搬了十次家。</b>好在，大概是继承了母亲活泼开明的个性，伍德并未对周遭频繁的变动感到太多不安，反而从适应新环境和探索新事物中，不断迸发出对生活的好奇。</p><p>略微长大之后，和许多移民家庭的孩子一样，她开始经受良好的教育，并在学习上逐渐显露出天赋。圣母学院高中毕业后，1981年，她在南加州大学（USC）获得金融经济学学士学位，以优异的成绩荣誉毕业。</p><p>升入南加大的最初，伍德对未来的设想也很模糊。大三选专业前的两年时间里，她一边在超市打工赚着学费，一边思忖着可能的进修方向：地质学、天文学、工程学……似乎很多都可以尝试，但又没有哪个说得上是多么坚定的选择。</p><p>直到某一学期，在父亲的建议之下，伍德初尝到了宏观经济学的味道——命运的神妙之处就是在那一刻，全身心的感应都告诉你：就是它了。</p><p>伍德深深地着迷于那些从经济活动中诞生，而又凌驾于微观和具体之上的“宏大观点”——遥远的、纵览全局的、直指未来的“宏大观点”。按照她自己的说法，她发现宏观研究是多么该死的迷人，让人大胆地畅想，畅想未来世界运转的方式，比起研究那些已经存在的理论，这是更加要紧的事。</p><p><b>回头来看，这是头一回，那股对未知事物一脉相承的偏爱，以一种直击脑门的方式，帮伍德做了一个重大的人生抉择。</b></p><p>师从名门让伍德在这条路上比其他人走得更快了些。她的导师——经济学教授Arthur Laffer正是著名的“拉弗曲线”的提出者。</p><p>虽是本科生，伍德仍然参加了他教授的研究生课程，凭借着优秀的禀赋深得器重。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf68e0010cae1663dd31058f8a34c7e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>2014年10月21日，Wood和Laffer在纽交所主席台上亮相 图源：Investors’Business Daily</span></p><p><b>年轻的首席：站在共识另一边</b></p><p>也是在拉弗的牵线下，22岁时，伍德进入传统资管巨头Capital Group就任助理经济学家，开启了她的职业生涯。</p><p>1980年，她又在一次偶然机遇下移居纽约，成为了投顾公司Jennison Associates的首席经济学家。<b>也就是说，仅仅三年，伍德就在年仅25岁之时从助理做到了首席。</b></p><p>正值她初担大任之际，美国经济也正经历一番风起云涌的巨变。</p><p>20世纪80年代初的美国正处于高度滞胀的深渊，生产下降和失业率猛增的同时，物价不但没有下跌反而普遍大幅上涨，出现了高通胀、高失业和低经济增长并存的罕见局面。当时美联储新上任的主席保罗·沃尔克试图缩减货币供应来对抗高企的通胀，但始终收效甚微。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b08eb3a10fa740d150c2486a9ea158\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>美国通胀在1980年升至高点</span></p><p>这一背景下，“末日博士”亨利·考夫曼和米尔顿·弗里德曼等一批当时美国最具权威性的经济学家都绝望地认为，通货膨胀已经成为常态，根深蒂固了。</p><p>伍德则认为不然，<b>她坚持，利率和通货膨胀已经见顶。</b></p><p>Jennison的联合创始人Spiros Segalas与伍德亦师亦友，那段时间，他经常邀请这些学界知名人士来公司分享他们的预测，又出于或训练、或考验、或交流的目的，让伍德站在“反方”，跟他们一对一辩上一辩。</p><p><b>一边是江湖多年、拥有庞大阵营的老将，一边是刚刚做上首席、单看年龄就好像没什么经验的少数派选手，</b>我们无法知道“考夫曼们”究竟是在认真参与这场学术对垒，还是抱着指教后辈的心态倾情演出，但事实最终证明，伍德的判断十分准确，1980年里根政府上台后，通胀和利率得到了不错的控制，从高峰一路下跌。</p><p>目睹了许多场辩论之后，Segalas对伍德做出这样的评价：<b>一位有着不可思议坚定信念的女士。她是目前为止最犀利的一个。</b></p><p>伍德后来说，正是那段日子真正塑造了她自行其是、挑战权威的能力，让她深刻意识到，要时刻警惕那些所谓的“共识”，它们看似不容辩驳，却往往有可商榷的空间——<b>而那些有违“共识”的行为，反而可能有巨大的潜力。</b></p><p>几十年后回首初生牛犊的往昔，伍德会发现，自己做下这一精准预测之时，正站在自身和历史转折交汇的当口。</p><p><b>利率一经回落，随之而来的将是一场长达40年的科技股牛市，而她不久后将参与其中，以同样“特立独行”的姿态战斗数年，直到掀起一番风浪。届时，她将“忤逆”的不再是几位学界的“考夫曼”，而是一整个华尔街。</b></p><p><b>那时的她并未料到这一点。</b></p><p><b>转战股票：在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭</b></p><p>她能嗅到的只是，科技股的风要刮上一阵子了。利率下行为之前深受冲击的科技公司带来了更多成长空间，伍德本来就热爱天文学和工程学，很快决定得坐上这班车。</p><p>于是1985年，她在Jennison从宏观转向股票研究，1990年又兼任该公司的投资组合经理，始终聚焦科技股领域。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab2a3e6a38a1e6cadb57da984a401bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>年轻时的伍德 图源：Jesus Calling</span></p><p>在科技股熙熙攘攘的人潮中，她又一次离开了大部队。</p><p>和利率预测时不同，这一次，违背共识、寻找新事物的信念真正“主动”发挥了作用。</p><p>伍德一上来就问自己，别的分析师肯定把不错的科技股都研究过一轮了，一个也不会放过，那还剩下什么？留给我的是什么？哪些是属于我的股票？</p><p>她随即有了答案。<b>于是，极具倾向性、甚至有些偏执地，伍德开始努力寻找两类股票：</b></p><ul><li>那些过于超前，超前到人们还没引起重视、还来不及一拥而上的领域；</li><li>某些股票位于多个行业的交汇处，而没有任何方面的分析师跟进。伍德认为，这很可能也是创新诞生的地方。</li></ul><p><b>她将自己形容为“一只小狗，在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭”。</b>她说，“当分析师和基金经理都认为某些股票不足挂齿，或无法完美地融入任意一个投资组合中时，通常得多看两眼”，它们可能暂时被低估，但随着时间推移，可能爆发指数级的增长。</p><p>研究股票时，伍德没什么固定的程序、套路可言，<b>只是贪婪地汲取着所能触及的所有信息，加以消化和判断。</b>现任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席投资官的Lisa Shalett曾同她工作过一段时间，回忆说：</p><p>“Cathie的好奇心像是永远得不到满足，她如饥似渴地吸收来自大大小小各类渠道的研究成果，一天24小时不知疲倦地工作，以确保团队拥有最深入的研究，生成最独到的观点。”</p><p><b>有时候，她甚至会听一听直觉讲的话。</b>比如投资路透社（Reuters）时，人们普遍很难理解这种“出版数据库”的商业模式——从金融公司收集数据，再把数据全部卖回给它们，这算什么呢？</p><p>伍德自己也说不好，但她认为这种模式非常创新。她后来回忆说：“当时只是觉得它在干件大事，现在我们知道了，这正是当今互联网概念的缩影。”</p><p><b>我们后面会看到，这种“肆意妄为”的投资风格，一直被伍德保留到了今天。</b></p><p>就这样，伍德在Jennison一待就是18年。余下的几年时光，她一边将三个孩子抚养长大，一边在股票研究的道路上越走越远，也在其独特的选股门道上越走越精。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db68c3edd34e7c90a2ace397b8ebc1c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wood和孩子们 图源：Jesus Calling</span></p><p>1998年，伍德离开Jennison后，先是在对冲基金Tupelo Capital做了3年的有限合伙人，2001年正式加入联博，担任基金经理和专题研究策略师。揣着50亿美元资金的管理规模，伍德在联博继续潜心股票领域，开启了长达12年的又一个职业阶段。</p><p>那时她尚未意识到，伴随着一阵金融风暴的来袭，这段岁月将成为其日后自立门户的关键转折。</p><p><b>摆脱传统 自立门户</b></p><p>在联博，伍德延续一贯的投资风格，走着高增长、高风险、小盘股的路径。2002年下半年开始，美股正值一轮牛市，伍德的投资组合也表现得相当不错。</p><p><b>但随后发生的两件事，让她萌生了摆脱传统基金投资分析框架的想法。</b></p><p>先是2006年，美国房地产泡沫已经达到了相当高的水平，市场上开始出现各种各样矛盾的信号，伍德预计泡沫不久就会破裂。她随即大幅降低了投资组合的头寸。</p><p>然而次贷的盛宴又继续了一年多，清醒得太早的代价是，伍德当年的收益率仅5%，跑输了大盘（12%-13%）将近一千个基点。</p><p>伍德深受打击。而当她对天主教会的导师诉说这件事，向其寻求开解的时候，导师留下一句意味深长的话，完全扭转了她原先看问题的角度：你不能崇拜任何偶像，而现在，市场基准却成了你的偶像。</p><p>第二年，伍德弥补了大部分损失，但在祈祷和冥想中回味起导师的话，她说自己<b>突然意识到，指数投资的成功属于过去，而上帝并不希望我们停留在过去，他希望我们进入新的创造。</b></p><p>从这时起，一个念头逐渐被深耕在伍德心里——<b>要变革原有的投资方式，投资的真正使命是要走向上帝所指引的未来，是要替上帝分配资本。</b></p><p>时间到了08-09年金融危机，高风险的投资策略使得伍德的基金在美股崩盘中，回撤明显大于市场水平。联博看不下去了，要求伍德在持仓中加入标普500等指数来减小波动性。</p><p><b>但是这一次，伍德不愿再受制于所谓的市场“基准”了。</b></p><p>她直截了当地反驳道：“我认为我们太过信奉基准投资法了，针对创新领域的投资则太少。现在有些创新公司在公开市场的价格，甚至只有私募市场的10%，这是个巨大的机会！”</p><p><b>这两件事如一段抑扬顿挫的前奏，最终将伍德引向了同一个方向：2014年，伍德辞去了联博收入稳定的工作，着手建立属于自己的初创公司。</b></p><p>她意识到，想要真正摆脱传统基金公司投资框架下的束手束脚，想要真正践行一套自己的标准和投资理念、大胆把钱投在创新领域，那就只有自立门户。</p><p>ARK的时代就此开始了。</p><p><b>离经叛道的ARK</b></p><p>因而可以说，ARK从最开始就是为了绕开传统资管的条条框框而生的，自然和大家走的不是一条路子。<b>不再寄人篱下的伍德，将其不拘一格释放到极限，向着离经叛道的方向越走越远。</b></p><p>她用一句话就和传统资管划清了界限：</p><blockquote><b>“我们真正要做的是鼓励新的创造，上帝的新创造。</b>我们要将资本配置到它能发挥最高效益的、最有用的地方——那些有望改变世界、改善世界的变革性技术之上。而他们，那些其他的基金业者，只是把钱投向过去，那是最安全的路径。”</blockquote><p><b>“我们”，和“他们”——一边是无惧挑战的、变革性的、先锋的、连接未来的、为“神的创造”分配资产的；另一边，是安全的、翻旧账的、对新兴技术视而不见的、毫无上进心和使命感可言的。</b></p><p>她问，你选哪一方？</p><p>话自然不只说说而已，<b>伍德的“新官上任三把火”延续至今。</b></p><p><b>一则</b>就像那个夏日午后，伍德自称圣灵在自己心里种下的计划一样，成立以来，ARK使命必达地将投资瞄准那些初绽头角的颠覆性技术，<b>对不少传统基金嗤之以鼻的新兴企业都大为鼓励，这与后者怕波动、稳收益的投资策略截然不同。</b></p><p>特斯拉可能是其中最著名、也最成功的例子了。</p><p>伍德五年前就投资了特斯拉，当时股价50美元左右，过去三年，特斯拉一直是ARK的最大持股。伍德认为，特斯拉就是那样一个“位于多个行业的交汇处”的企业，集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、能源储存于一身，传统的汽车分析师“不知道该怎么办”。</p><p>2018年8月特斯拉股价徘徊在320美元时，马斯克一度考虑将公司私有化，用420美元/股的价格回购所有股票。<b>伍德却是当时99%的市场看跌特斯拉时那1%的声音</b>。她随即向马斯克发了一封公开信，预测称特斯拉在五年内股价最高能达到4000美元，反对其私有化公司。</p><p>那封公开信至今，特斯拉已经发布了Model3，股价从320美元飙升至3500美元(按1比5的拆股比例调整)，伍德独到的眼光也得到了验证。</p><p>根据ARK 2021年投资报告，除了比特币和电动车，如今伍德又将目光驻足到深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造等等多个新兴领域，一如既往不吝对这些象征颠覆性创新的词汇付诸无限热情。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736971a7c4e609eeaee76c1d1f93c2c0\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"1072\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>图源：Alotta Money</span></p><p><b>二则，和伍德所设想的一样，ARK公司从分析师本身到投资策略，从不拘泥于传统的指标、规则，十足的野路子打法，却不失漂亮。</b></p><p>传统ETF主要被动投资于指数，而伍德的ETF采取主动选股、积极管理策略，这是很罕见的，即便在主动型ETF越来越受欢迎的今天，也只占美国ETF总资产的3%。正如前文提到，伍德很不喜欢指数，认为那衡量是过去的成就。</p><p>她的雇员和传统基金也完全不同，总共30多名员工，很少有华尔街背景或MBA学位的，大多数都是不同行业的专业人士——癌症科学家、人工智能分析师、游戏工程师，甚至船长。他们不懂移动平均线，不懂动量指标，有些甚至连彭博终端都不会用。</p><p>伍德不在乎这些，她看中的就是不同背景、不同领域的专业性。</p><p>她似乎也非常信奉“咖啡馆里出哲学”的理念，以一种极轻松的模式管理着公司。曼哈顿东28街的办公室没有隔间，酒吧式的高脚椅旁边，所有桌子围成一圈，职员们自由地走动、交流、对谈，随时准备着思维的交锋。</p><p><b>三则，传统资管公司总爱深藏不露自己掌握的“独家信息”，ARK则完全不同。伍德的态度是：透明、开放，“信息吸引信息”。</b></p><p>ARK的周度“头脑风暴”会议任何人都可以参加，包括行业专家和竞争对手。团队可以与科学家、工程师、医生和其他专家分享研究成果并进行合作，这在很多传统基金公司是违规行为，是要被开除的。</p><p>不仅如此，伍德还会在Reddit论坛等社交平台上免费发布研究报告，每天公布持仓变动，甚至亲自和网友讨论投资标的，这为其积攒下一大批忠实的粉丝。她认为，这有助于ARK对与市场存在分歧或误解的地方进行反思，更好地理解世界在发生什么。</p><p><b>投资ARK=信上帝、信未来？</b></p><p><b>所谓离经叛道者，人们要么视其为天才，要么笑其为疯子，投资特斯拉的成功有如一剂强心剂，让更多人愿意相信伍德归属前者。</b></p><p>于是这三把火多少在粉丝心中埋下了几分狂热因子，似乎伍德已经为其股票池无可限量的创新前景打了包票——在ARK这里，只要付出时间成本，就能获得金钱回报。</p><p>但更重要的一点是，<b>上面这句话在上帝、信仰、未来这些概念的贯穿下，卸下了俗套的外衣，听起来慷慨激昂，振奋人心。</b></p><p><b>想想吧，投资ARK，和笃信未来挂了钩。</b>如果巴菲特、芒格版价值投资算是经验主义的王道，那么ARK这套轰轰烈烈的说法就有些形而上的架势了。</p><p>总的来说，人还是爱幻想的动物，对于虚无缥缈着的东西总容易信点什么。你可以不信特斯拉、不信比特币，但你信技术吗，信技术的发展吗？你可以不信ARK，但你信“上帝的使命”吗？你说你不是基督徒，那你信未来吗？当ARK信誓旦旦地描画着未来，你又能喊出同样的音量反驳说，未来并非如此吗？</p><p>毕竟，那个被所有人称作是骗子的特斯拉真的干成了不是吗，它颠覆了整个汽车业，从金属到能源也为之改变——那么比特币呢？那么一路看好特斯拉到现在的ARK呢？</p><p>这套思维的力量比想象中要大得多。</p><p>就算在路途中受了些苦，比如净值暴跌了30个点什么的……一些投资者也会觉得自己是在为未来买单，是林中有两条路，选择了布满荆棘的那条，是坚持到最后的人笑得最大声。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf28c6de9e5b0e0e414e8b6c9db7dd0\" tg-width=\"1174\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>截至3/8，ARK五只表现最好的ETF自高点平均下跌近30个点，图为旗舰基金ARKK净值曲线</span></p><p>但确实如此，谁又说得准未来呢？有限的钱包是否真的可以为无限的信仰买单，即便未来确乎如此，坚持得到的又是多远的未来？</p><p>比如，今年的结局又将是如何。</p><p>2021年对ARK无疑是严峻挑战的一年。风风火火的几个月过去，ARK与特斯拉、比特币之间千丝万缕的联系几乎酿成了“三位一体”的风险格局，去年年底伍德还告诉媒体，有决心未来五年把投资人的钱翻三倍，不料进入2021年才两个月，股价就开始掉头向下，开局不利。</p><p>对小盘股的钟爱还始终是一大隐患。有分析师举例，ARK旗下ARKG基金持仓的标的中有20家超过流通股本的5%，占全部持仓标的比例为45.45%，ARK已经成为不少标的的第一大股东，一旦市场环境不好或板块热度下降，基金净值可能会出现利空叠加流动性风险带来的大幅下跌。</p><p><b>人们在恐慌中再次回想起上世纪90年代的美股市场——那座用泡沫堆成的高楼一夜之间轰然倒塌，也将一众刚升起不久的“资管新星”埋在废墟之下。</b></p><p>比如，曾在1991年至2005连续15年间跑赢标普500指数的明星基金经理比尔·米勒（Bill Miller），08年金融危机时却惨遭滑铁卢，一度被市场形容为“晚节不保”。</p><p>又比如共同基金公司Janus（古罗马神话中的两面神），1998年底至2000年3月间，从美国第20大共同基金公司发展到第5大，短短十年规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿。就连曾任美国总统的克林顿都把个人账户交托Janus管理。</p><p>但随着互联网泡沫破裂，其部分基金产品净值一下子暴跌三分之二，“两面神”的神话也就此灰飞烟灭。和ARK一样，Janus恰好也对科技股和小盘股情有独钟，也恰好是一副放眼未来，一旦看好就重拳出击的自信架势。</p><p>那么如今的ARK，会成为下一个两面神吗？如今的伍德，会是下一个跌落神坛的米勒吗？还是，它们将成为下一个特斯拉和马斯克，度过艰难的日子，真正站上行业变革的中心？</p><p>两年多前马斯克在节目上一口大麻一口酒，愁眉不展地度过特斯拉最艰难的日子。如今，伍德也正迎来这样的时候吗？</p><p>而后，马斯克真的成了汽车领域的颠覆者，传统车企不得不大象掉头奋起直追，伍德也将这样地拨云开雾吗？</p><p>华尔街将出现更多的ARK吗？更透明、更开放、更具活力的资管业正在形成吗？</p><p>遵从上帝的话，诺亚建好了方舟，那年方舟从大洪水中存活下来，神说“我使云彩盖地的时候，必有虹现在云中”。</p><p>如今“遵从圣灵之托”，伍德建成ARK也来到第七个年头，大洪水化身金融市场的风暴袭来，云雾遮挡视线。伍德能够带领整船的人翻过洪水，真正掀起行业变革的风吗？她能见到，神降下的虹吗？</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“替上帝配资”的女人！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“替上帝配资”的女人！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 12:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：她投资特斯拉，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司Stratasys，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c69c183f3df90b688867160c4eb35b5","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2123790280","content_text":"“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：她投资特斯拉，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司Stratasys，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，自己也站在资管业风暴的中心。生于华尔街，她却抛弃传统，不顾“纪律”，最终走上一条离经叛道的投资之路，时至今日，一度风光无限，又备受质疑。楼之倾覆或在一夜之间，多少人看过它高楼起，就多少人想看它楼倾覆。而要问这一切是如何开始的，ARK Invest的创始人、这位如今家喻户晓的年度“牛市女皇”——年过65岁的伍德女士（Cathie Wood），坐在某张舒服的座椅上，捋了捋及肩的灰褐色长发，扶稳了她的标志性黑框眼镜，徐徐回忆起多年前那个夏天的午后：那是个美丽的夏日，我回到家里，周围是一片陌生的静寂。三个孩子去基督营了，还有别的什么活动，我突然意识到，接下来两周我都要一个人度过了。我和这样的日子分别太久了。走进厨房，我既不快乐也不悲伤，只是有些恍惚……直到一阵突如其来的撼动划破空气，我仿佛听到圣灵在对我说话——“来吧，开启你的计划。”我听到他说。她说你看，你一辈子都在研究颠覆性创新，何不试着颠覆下自己的行业呢？何不用新的技术革新它？何不将新的想法公之于众，用社交媒体传播它？何不叫上竞争对手，一起碰撞思维的火花？他这样说，我遂这样做了。“她这样说，我遂这样做了”，于是2014年，57岁的伍德从大名鼎鼎的资管巨头联博（Alliance Bernstein）辞职，创立了这家属于自己的资管公司，并以《圣经》中圣物约柜（ARK）的名字为它命名。正如旧约时代的以色列人带着约柜征战，相信神与约柜同在一样，这位虔诚的天主教徒坚信，ARK注定要将资本投向创新，投向未来，投向“神的手笔”，这是在完成上帝交托的使命。现在很多中文媒体都将ARK译作“方舟”，虽非伍德本意，却也颇有其自视“身负世界命运”的神韵。《圣经》中的“约柜”形象六年过去，对ARK来说，2020年无疑是历史性的一年。3月的史诗级波动如一声号响，撞上疫情的美股在央行大放水中全面复苏，ARK则由于此前打着“颠覆性创新”的旗号狂买科技股和小盘股，成了本轮牛市的头号受益者，旗下ETF包揽全美基金年度冠亚季军，5只表现最好的ETF年度回报平均达141%，规模最高涨超10倍，仿佛神终于为其忠实的信徒降下恩典。不过时间又来到今年二月，月初还风光无限的ARK，到了月底就随科技股下跌一路俯冲。越来越多质疑的声音开始涌现。人们说，伍德是否将重蹈上世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期那一大批明星基金经理的覆辙？他们先是飘飘然起飞，又随着泡沫破裂摔得一败涂地。大起大落之中，几个月来，有关ARK和伍德本人的报道铺天盖地。人们后知后觉地发现，这位自称替上帝配资本的“牛市女皇”，要不就是信仰界的“传教”高手、基金界的昙花一朵，要不，就可能真是资管业横空出世的颠覆者、是预示未来创新方向的“先知”。游历的童年 好奇的孩子真要追溯伍德对新生事物的情有独钟，可能还得从她不算安定的童年讲起。1955年，伍德出生在美国洛杉矶的一个天主教移民家庭，从小诵经读卷，去教堂做礼拜。她的父母都来自爱尔兰，父亲曾经在爱尔兰陆军和美国空军服役，后来成为了一名成功的雷达系统工程师。由于父亲工作的缘故，经常需要带着全家从一个军事基地搬到另一个基地，小时候的伍德从没在哪个地方待过很久，12岁就已经搬了十次家。好在，大概是继承了母亲活泼开明的个性，伍德并未对周遭频繁的变动感到太多不安，反而从适应新环境和探索新事物中，不断迸发出对生活的好奇。略微长大之后，和许多移民家庭的孩子一样，她开始经受良好的教育，并在学习上逐渐显露出天赋。圣母学院高中毕业后，1981年，她在南加州大学（USC）获得金融经济学学士学位，以优异的成绩荣誉毕业。升入南加大的最初，伍德对未来的设想也很模糊。大三选专业前的两年时间里，她一边在超市打工赚着学费，一边思忖着可能的进修方向：地质学、天文学、工程学……似乎很多都可以尝试，但又没有哪个说得上是多么坚定的选择。直到某一学期，在父亲的建议之下，伍德初尝到了宏观经济学的味道——命运的神妙之处就是在那一刻，全身心的感应都告诉你：就是它了。伍德深深地着迷于那些从经济活动中诞生，而又凌驾于微观和具体之上的“宏大观点”——遥远的、纵览全局的、直指未来的“宏大观点”。按照她自己的说法，她发现宏观研究是多么该死的迷人，让人大胆地畅想，畅想未来世界运转的方式，比起研究那些已经存在的理论，这是更加要紧的事。回头来看，这是头一回，那股对未知事物一脉相承的偏爱，以一种直击脑门的方式，帮伍德做了一个重大的人生抉择。师从名门让伍德在这条路上比其他人走得更快了些。她的导师——经济学教授Arthur Laffer正是著名的“拉弗曲线”的提出者。虽是本科生，伍德仍然参加了他教授的研究生课程，凭借着优秀的禀赋深得器重。2014年10月21日，Wood和Laffer在纽交所主席台上亮相 图源：Investors’Business Daily年轻的首席：站在共识另一边也是在拉弗的牵线下，22岁时，伍德进入传统资管巨头Capital Group就任助理经济学家，开启了她的职业生涯。1980年，她又在一次偶然机遇下移居纽约，成为了投顾公司Jennison Associates的首席经济学家。也就是说，仅仅三年，伍德就在年仅25岁之时从助理做到了首席。正值她初担大任之际，美国经济也正经历一番风起云涌的巨变。20世纪80年代初的美国正处于高度滞胀的深渊，生产下降和失业率猛增的同时，物价不但没有下跌反而普遍大幅上涨，出现了高通胀、高失业和低经济增长并存的罕见局面。当时美联储新上任的主席保罗·沃尔克试图缩减货币供应来对抗高企的通胀，但始终收效甚微。美国通胀在1980年升至高点这一背景下，“末日博士”亨利·考夫曼和米尔顿·弗里德曼等一批当时美国最具权威性的经济学家都绝望地认为，通货膨胀已经成为常态，根深蒂固了。伍德则认为不然，她坚持，利率和通货膨胀已经见顶。Jennison的联合创始人Spiros Segalas与伍德亦师亦友，那段时间，他经常邀请这些学界知名人士来公司分享他们的预测，又出于或训练、或考验、或交流的目的，让伍德站在“反方”，跟他们一对一辩上一辩。一边是江湖多年、拥有庞大阵营的老将，一边是刚刚做上首席、单看年龄就好像没什么经验的少数派选手，我们无法知道“考夫曼们”究竟是在认真参与这场学术对垒，还是抱着指教后辈的心态倾情演出，但事实最终证明，伍德的判断十分准确，1980年里根政府上台后，通胀和利率得到了不错的控制，从高峰一路下跌。目睹了许多场辩论之后，Segalas对伍德做出这样的评价：一位有着不可思议坚定信念的女士。她是目前为止最犀利的一个。伍德后来说，正是那段日子真正塑造了她自行其是、挑战权威的能力，让她深刻意识到，要时刻警惕那些所谓的“共识”，它们看似不容辩驳，却往往有可商榷的空间——而那些有违“共识”的行为，反而可能有巨大的潜力。几十年后回首初生牛犊的往昔，伍德会发现，自己做下这一精准预测之时，正站在自身和历史转折交汇的当口。利率一经回落，随之而来的将是一场长达40年的科技股牛市，而她不久后将参与其中，以同样“特立独行”的姿态战斗数年，直到掀起一番风浪。届时，她将“忤逆”的不再是几位学界的“考夫曼”，而是一整个华尔街。那时的她并未料到这一点。转战股票：在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭她能嗅到的只是，科技股的风要刮上一阵子了。利率下行为之前深受冲击的科技公司带来了更多成长空间，伍德本来就热爱天文学和工程学，很快决定得坐上这班车。于是1985年，她在Jennison从宏观转向股票研究，1990年又兼任该公司的投资组合经理，始终聚焦科技股领域。年轻时的伍德 图源：Jesus Calling在科技股熙熙攘攘的人潮中，她又一次离开了大部队。和利率预测时不同，这一次，违背共识、寻找新事物的信念真正“主动”发挥了作用。伍德一上来就问自己，别的分析师肯定把不错的科技股都研究过一轮了，一个也不会放过，那还剩下什么？留给我的是什么？哪些是属于我的股票？她随即有了答案。于是，极具倾向性、甚至有些偏执地，伍德开始努力寻找两类股票：那些过于超前，超前到人们还没引起重视、还来不及一拥而上的领域；某些股票位于多个行业的交汇处，而没有任何方面的分析师跟进。伍德认为，这很可能也是创新诞生的地方。她将自己形容为“一只小狗，在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭”。她说，“当分析师和基金经理都认为某些股票不足挂齿，或无法完美地融入任意一个投资组合中时，通常得多看两眼”，它们可能暂时被低估，但随着时间推移，可能爆发指数级的增长。研究股票时，伍德没什么固定的程序、套路可言，只是贪婪地汲取着所能触及的所有信息，加以消化和判断。现任摩根士丹利首席投资官的Lisa Shalett曾同她工作过一段时间，回忆说：“Cathie的好奇心像是永远得不到满足，她如饥似渴地吸收来自大大小小各类渠道的研究成果，一天24小时不知疲倦地工作，以确保团队拥有最深入的研究，生成最独到的观点。”有时候，她甚至会听一听直觉讲的话。比如投资路透社（Reuters）时，人们普遍很难理解这种“出版数据库”的商业模式——从金融公司收集数据，再把数据全部卖回给它们，这算什么呢？伍德自己也说不好，但她认为这种模式非常创新。她后来回忆说：“当时只是觉得它在干件大事，现在我们知道了，这正是当今互联网概念的缩影。”我们后面会看到，这种“肆意妄为”的投资风格，一直被伍德保留到了今天。就这样，伍德在Jennison一待就是18年。余下的几年时光，她一边将三个孩子抚养长大，一边在股票研究的道路上越走越远，也在其独特的选股门道上越走越精。Wood和孩子们 图源：Jesus Calling1998年，伍德离开Jennison后，先是在对冲基金Tupelo Capital做了3年的有限合伙人，2001年正式加入联博，担任基金经理和专题研究策略师。揣着50亿美元资金的管理规模，伍德在联博继续潜心股票领域，开启了长达12年的又一个职业阶段。那时她尚未意识到，伴随着一阵金融风暴的来袭，这段岁月将成为其日后自立门户的关键转折。摆脱传统 自立门户在联博，伍德延续一贯的投资风格，走着高增长、高风险、小盘股的路径。2002年下半年开始，美股正值一轮牛市，伍德的投资组合也表现得相当不错。但随后发生的两件事，让她萌生了摆脱传统基金投资分析框架的想法。先是2006年，美国房地产泡沫已经达到了相当高的水平，市场上开始出现各种各样矛盾的信号，伍德预计泡沫不久就会破裂。她随即大幅降低了投资组合的头寸。然而次贷的盛宴又继续了一年多，清醒得太早的代价是，伍德当年的收益率仅5%，跑输了大盘（12%-13%）将近一千个基点。伍德深受打击。而当她对天主教会的导师诉说这件事，向其寻求开解的时候，导师留下一句意味深长的话，完全扭转了她原先看问题的角度：你不能崇拜任何偶像，而现在，市场基准却成了你的偶像。第二年，伍德弥补了大部分损失，但在祈祷和冥想中回味起导师的话，她说自己突然意识到，指数投资的成功属于过去，而上帝并不希望我们停留在过去，他希望我们进入新的创造。从这时起，一个念头逐渐被深耕在伍德心里——要变革原有的投资方式，投资的真正使命是要走向上帝所指引的未来，是要替上帝分配资本。时间到了08-09年金融危机，高风险的投资策略使得伍德的基金在美股崩盘中，回撤明显大于市场水平。联博看不下去了，要求伍德在持仓中加入标普500等指数来减小波动性。但是这一次，伍德不愿再受制于所谓的市场“基准”了。她直截了当地反驳道：“我认为我们太过信奉基准投资法了，针对创新领域的投资则太少。现在有些创新公司在公开市场的价格，甚至只有私募市场的10%，这是个巨大的机会！”这两件事如一段抑扬顿挫的前奏，最终将伍德引向了同一个方向：2014年，伍德辞去了联博收入稳定的工作，着手建立属于自己的初创公司。她意识到，想要真正摆脱传统基金公司投资框架下的束手束脚，想要真正践行一套自己的标准和投资理念、大胆把钱投在创新领域，那就只有自立门户。ARK的时代就此开始了。离经叛道的ARK因而可以说，ARK从最开始就是为了绕开传统资管的条条框框而生的，自然和大家走的不是一条路子。不再寄人篱下的伍德，将其不拘一格释放到极限，向着离经叛道的方向越走越远。她用一句话就和传统资管划清了界限：“我们真正要做的是鼓励新的创造，上帝的新创造。我们要将资本配置到它能发挥最高效益的、最有用的地方——那些有望改变世界、改善世界的变革性技术之上。而他们，那些其他的基金业者，只是把钱投向过去，那是最安全的路径。”“我们”，和“他们”——一边是无惧挑战的、变革性的、先锋的、连接未来的、为“神的创造”分配资产的；另一边，是安全的、翻旧账的、对新兴技术视而不见的、毫无上进心和使命感可言的。她问，你选哪一方？话自然不只说说而已，伍德的“新官上任三把火”延续至今。一则就像那个夏日午后，伍德自称圣灵在自己心里种下的计划一样，成立以来，ARK使命必达地将投资瞄准那些初绽头角的颠覆性技术，对不少传统基金嗤之以鼻的新兴企业都大为鼓励，这与后者怕波动、稳收益的投资策略截然不同。特斯拉可能是其中最著名、也最成功的例子了。伍德五年前就投资了特斯拉，当时股价50美元左右，过去三年，特斯拉一直是ARK的最大持股。伍德认为，特斯拉就是那样一个“位于多个行业的交汇处”的企业，集机器人、人工智能、能源储存于一身，传统的汽车分析师“不知道该怎么办”。2018年8月特斯拉股价徘徊在320美元时，马斯克一度考虑将公司私有化，用420美元/股的价格回购所有股票。伍德却是当时99%的市场看跌特斯拉时那1%的声音。她随即向马斯克发了一封公开信，预测称特斯拉在五年内股价最高能达到4000美元，反对其私有化公司。那封公开信至今，特斯拉已经发布了Model3，股价从320美元飙升至3500美元(按1比5的拆股比例调整)，伍德独到的眼光也得到了验证。根据ARK 2021年投资报告，除了比特币和电动车，如今伍德又将目光驻足到深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造等等多个新兴领域，一如既往不吝对这些象征颠覆性创新的词汇付诸无限热情。图源：Alotta Money二则，和伍德所设想的一样，ARK公司从分析师本身到投资策略，从不拘泥于传统的指标、规则，十足的野路子打法，却不失漂亮。传统ETF主要被动投资于指数，而伍德的ETF采取主动选股、积极管理策略，这是很罕见的，即便在主动型ETF越来越受欢迎的今天，也只占美国ETF总资产的3%。正如前文提到，伍德很不喜欢指数，认为那衡量是过去的成就。她的雇员和传统基金也完全不同，总共30多名员工，很少有华尔街背景或MBA学位的，大多数都是不同行业的专业人士——癌症科学家、人工智能分析师、游戏工程师，甚至船长。他们不懂移动平均线，不懂动量指标，有些甚至连彭博终端都不会用。伍德不在乎这些，她看中的就是不同背景、不同领域的专业性。她似乎也非常信奉“咖啡馆里出哲学”的理念，以一种极轻松的模式管理着公司。曼哈顿东28街的办公室没有隔间，酒吧式的高脚椅旁边，所有桌子围成一圈，职员们自由地走动、交流、对谈，随时准备着思维的交锋。三则，传统资管公司总爱深藏不露自己掌握的“独家信息”，ARK则完全不同。伍德的态度是：透明、开放，“信息吸引信息”。ARK的周度“头脑风暴”会议任何人都可以参加，包括行业专家和竞争对手。团队可以与科学家、工程师、医生和其他专家分享研究成果并进行合作，这在很多传统基金公司是违规行为，是要被开除的。不仅如此，伍德还会在Reddit论坛等社交平台上免费发布研究报告，每天公布持仓变动，甚至亲自和网友讨论投资标的，这为其积攒下一大批忠实的粉丝。她认为，这有助于ARK对与市场存在分歧或误解的地方进行反思，更好地理解世界在发生什么。投资ARK=信上帝、信未来？所谓离经叛道者，人们要么视其为天才，要么笑其为疯子，投资特斯拉的成功有如一剂强心剂，让更多人愿意相信伍德归属前者。于是这三把火多少在粉丝心中埋下了几分狂热因子，似乎伍德已经为其股票池无可限量的创新前景打了包票——在ARK这里，只要付出时间成本，就能获得金钱回报。但更重要的一点是，上面这句话在上帝、信仰、未来这些概念的贯穿下，卸下了俗套的外衣，听起来慷慨激昂，振奋人心。想想吧，投资ARK，和笃信未来挂了钩。如果巴菲特、芒格版价值投资算是经验主义的王道，那么ARK这套轰轰烈烈的说法就有些形而上的架势了。总的来说，人还是爱幻想的动物，对于虚无缥缈着的东西总容易信点什么。你可以不信特斯拉、不信比特币，但你信技术吗，信技术的发展吗？你可以不信ARK，但你信“上帝的使命”吗？你说你不是基督徒，那你信未来吗？当ARK信誓旦旦地描画着未来，你又能喊出同样的音量反驳说，未来并非如此吗？毕竟，那个被所有人称作是骗子的特斯拉真的干成了不是吗，它颠覆了整个汽车业，从金属到能源也为之改变——那么比特币呢？那么一路看好特斯拉到现在的ARK呢？这套思维的力量比想象中要大得多。就算在路途中受了些苦，比如净值暴跌了30个点什么的……一些投资者也会觉得自己是在为未来买单，是林中有两条路，选择了布满荆棘的那条，是坚持到最后的人笑得最大声。截至3/8，ARK五只表现最好的ETF自高点平均下跌近30个点，图为旗舰基金ARKK净值曲线但确实如此，谁又说得准未来呢？有限的钱包是否真的可以为无限的信仰买单，即便未来确乎如此，坚持得到的又是多远的未来？比如，今年的结局又将是如何。2021年对ARK无疑是严峻挑战的一年。风风火火的几个月过去，ARK与特斯拉、比特币之间千丝万缕的联系几乎酿成了“三位一体”的风险格局，去年年底伍德还告诉媒体，有决心未来五年把投资人的钱翻三倍，不料进入2021年才两个月，股价就开始掉头向下，开局不利。对小盘股的钟爱还始终是一大隐患。有分析师举例，ARK旗下ARKG基金持仓的标的中有20家超过流通股本的5%，占全部持仓标的比例为45.45%，ARK已经成为不少标的的第一大股东，一旦市场环境不好或板块热度下降，基金净值可能会出现利空叠加流动性风险带来的大幅下跌。人们在恐慌中再次回想起上世纪90年代的美股市场——那座用泡沫堆成的高楼一夜之间轰然倒塌，也将一众刚升起不久的“资管新星”埋在废墟之下。比如，曾在1991年至2005连续15年间跑赢标普500指数的明星基金经理比尔·米勒（Bill Miller），08年金融危机时却惨遭滑铁卢，一度被市场形容为“晚节不保”。又比如共同基金公司Janus（古罗马神话中的两面神），1998年底至2000年3月间，从美国第20大共同基金公司发展到第5大，短短十年规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿。就连曾任美国总统的克林顿都把个人账户交托Janus管理。但随着互联网泡沫破裂，其部分基金产品净值一下子暴跌三分之二，“两面神”的神话也就此灰飞烟灭。和ARK一样，Janus恰好也对科技股和小盘股情有独钟，也恰好是一副放眼未来，一旦看好就重拳出击的自信架势。那么如今的ARK，会成为下一个两面神吗？如今的伍德，会是下一个跌落神坛的米勒吗？还是，它们将成为下一个特斯拉和马斯克，度过艰难的日子，真正站上行业变革的中心？两年多前马斯克在节目上一口大麻一口酒，愁眉不展地度过特斯拉最艰难的日子。如今，伍德也正迎来这样的时候吗？而后，马斯克真的成了汽车领域的颠覆者，传统车企不得不大象掉头奋起直追，伍德也将这样地拨云开雾吗？华尔街将出现更多的ARK吗？更透明、更开放、更具活力的资管业正在形成吗？遵从上帝的话，诺亚建好了方舟，那年方舟从大洪水中存活下来，神说“我使云彩盖地的时候，必有虹现在云中”。如今“遵从圣灵之托”，伍德建成ARK也来到第七个年头，大洪水化身金融市场的风暴袭来，云雾遮挡视线。伍德能够带领整船的人翻过洪水，真正掀起行业变革的风吗？她能见到，神降下的虹吗？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327745021,"gmtCreate":1616130322963,"gmtModify":1704791338562,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","listText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","text":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327745021","repostId":"1167332168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167332168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615992072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167332168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167332168","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival $Tencent$ 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the","content":"<p>(March 17)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> stocks advanced&nbsp;&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee99cf497f367f259eb1a8a4cc10198\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Alibaba&nbsp;plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a> 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.</p><p><i>Bloomberg</i>sourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.</p><p>Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.</p><p>Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments industry.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1167332168","content_text":"(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Bloombergsourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments industry.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327760798,"gmtCreate":1616126832214,"gmtModify":1704791287133,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ who pump money in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671e2962f2c08b8756a2bbcb649f9b6d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327760798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562206499105387","authorId":"3562206499105387","name":"CY_Ng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba016392472f02387b5ae5505dbc524","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3562206499105387","authorIdStr":"3562206499105387"},"content":"company own share buy back since Monday","text":"company own share buy back since Monday","html":"company own share buy back since Monday"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366341851,"gmtCreate":1614399904173,"gmtModify":1704771567968,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fair value now","listText":"Fair value now","text":"Fair value now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366341851","repostId":"2114091633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2114091633","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1614356700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2114091633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-27 00:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2114091633","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-27 00:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2114091633","content_text":"MW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361681406,"gmtCreate":1614228767005,"gmtModify":1704889881339,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking alpha article is the best","listText":"Seeking alpha article is the best","text":"Seeking alpha article is the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361681406","repostId":"1115367460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382530252,"gmtCreate":1613464404076,"gmtModify":1704880715321,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382530252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":327760798,"gmtCreate":1616126832214,"gmtModify":1704791287133,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;who pump money in?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ who pump money in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671e2962f2c08b8756a2bbcb649f9b6d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327760798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562206499105387","authorId":"3562206499105387","name":"CY_Ng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba016392472f02387b5ae5505dbc524","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3562206499105387","authorIdStr":"3562206499105387"},"content":"company own share buy back since Monday","text":"company own share buy back since Monday","html":"company own share buy back since Monday"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150797048,"gmtCreate":1624927073084,"gmtModify":1703848023079,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?&nbsp;","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ why keep shares buy back after price has rally up recently. Still undervalue?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150797048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382530252,"gmtCreate":1613464404076,"gmtModify":1704880715321,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/8IH.AU\">$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$</a>&nbsp;market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","text":"$8I Holdings Ltd(8IH.AU)$ market cap is just AUD70million, compare to 8VI market cap OF AUD 130million. 8IH own 80% of 8VI.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/382530252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164132519,"gmtCreate":1624178867531,"gmtModify":1703830236330,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","listText":"Be the lemming with life jacket","text":"Be the lemming with life jacket","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164132519","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126454279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151746,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126454279?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126454279","media":"fool","summary":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\n","content":"<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.</p>\n<p>Since the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followed<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.</p>\n<p><b>History is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>For example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&amp;P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.</p>\n<p>To add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.</p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.</p>\n<p>Make no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.</p>\n<p>Every crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money</p>\n<p>However, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b></p>\n<p>Cybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stock<b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.</p>\n<p>We can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Brand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giant<b>Facebook</b>(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.</p>\n<p>When the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.</p>\n<p>But here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.</p>\n<p><b>NextEra Energy</b></p>\n<p>Another high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stock<b>NextEra Energy</b>(NYSE:NEE).</p>\n<p>Did I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.</p>\n<p>In addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.</p>\n<p><b>Visa</b></p>\n<p>When the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpin<b>Visa</b>(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.</p>\n<p>Buying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.</p>\n<p>The other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.</p>\n<p><b>Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Lastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemoth<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN).</p>\n<p>Amazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.</p>\n<p>What about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.</p>\n<p>But it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Coming: 5 High-Conviction Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEP":"Nextera Energy Partners","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","V":"Visa","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/19/stock-market-crash-coming-5-high-conviction-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126454279","content_text":"It might be the last thing you want to hear, but it's the truth:A stock market crash is inevitable.\nSince the March 23, 2020 bottom, investors have enjoyed a historically strong bounce-back rally -- the widely followedS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)has gained an impressive 90%. But both history and valuation metrics unequivocally suggest that a big drop is upcoming for the stock market.\nHistory is pretty clear that trouble lies ahead\nFor example, there have beenone or two double-digit percentage declineswithin the three years following a bottom in each of the previous eight bear markets prior to the coronavirus crash (i.e., dating back to 1960). Although bull markets tend to last years, rebounds from a bear market are never this smooth. We're nearly 15 months past the March 2020 bear-market bottom in the S&P 500 and have yet to see anything close to a double-digit correction.\nTo add to this point, data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research shows that there have been 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 over the past 71 years. That's a crash or correction, on average,every 1.87 years. Though the market doesn't adhere to averages, it does give a general sense of when to expect these hiccups.\nOn a valuation basis, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a waving red flag. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E -- a measure of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years -- almost hit 38 earlier this week. That more than doubles its 151-year average, and it's the highest level in nearly two decades. The previous four times the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30 during a bull market rally, the indexsubsequently declined by a minimum of 20%.\nMake no mistake about it -- a stock market crash is coming.\nEvery crash or correction is an opportunity for patient investors to make money\nHowever, a crash is no reason to duck and cover. While history may signal trouble ahead, it also tells us that each and every double-digit decline has been a buying opportunity. Eventually, every big drop in the major indexes is erased by a bull-market rally. When the next crash does occur, the following five high-conviction stocks can be confidently bought hand over fist.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity is projected to beone of the safest double-digit growth trendsthis decade. No matter the size of the business or the state of the U.S./global economy, protecting enterprise and consumer data is paramount. This means cloud-based cybersecurity stockCrowdStrike Holdings(NASDAQ:CRWD)can thrive in any environment.\nCrowdStrike's successderives from its cloud-native Falcon security platform. Because it's built in the cloud and relies on artificial intelligence, it's growing smarter at identifying and responding to threats all the time. It's currently overseeing 6 trillion events on a weekly basis, and it's far more cost-effective at protecting data than on-premise solutions.\nWe can also look to the company's income statements to see clear-cut evidence that businesses favor CrowdStrike's cybersecurity platform. It's been retaining 98% of its clients, has seen existing clients spend 23% to 47% more on a year-over-year basis for the past 12 quarters, and recently reported that 64% of its customers have purchased at least four cloud module subscriptions. Scaling with its customers is CrowdStrike's ticket to big-time cash flow expansion.\nFacebook\nBrand-name businesses can make patient investors a fortune, and social media giantFacebook(NASDAQ:FB)is the perfect example.\nWhen the curtain closed on March, Facebook tallied 2.85 billion monthly active users (MAU) visiting its namesake site and an additional 600 million unique MAUs visiting WhatsApp or Instagram, which it also owns. All told, this equates to44% of the global populationinteracting with its owned sites each month. There's simply no social media platform businesses can go to get their message to a broader (or potentially targeted) audience, which is why Facebook ad-pricing power is so strong.\nBut here's the kicker: Facebookhasn't even put the pedal to the metal. Although it's on track to generate more than $100 billion in advertising revenue in 2021, nearly all of these ad sales are coming from its namesake site and Instagram. WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger, which are two of the six most-visited social sites in the world, aren't being meaningfully monetized as of yet. Further, the company's Oculus virtual reality devices are still in the early stage of their growth. Suffice it to say, Facebook offers ample upside as its other operating segments are monetized and mature.\nNextEra Energy\nAnother high-conviction stock to buy hand over fist the next time a crash or steep correction strikes is electric utility stockNextEra Energy(NYSE:NEE).\nDid I put you to sleep when I said \"electric utility stock?\" Electric utilities are traditionally known for their market-topping dividend yields and persistently low growth rates. But this doesn't describe NextEra Energy. NextEra has aggressively invested in renewable energy projects and is leading the country in solar and wind capacity. As a result of these investments, its electric generation costs have declined and its compound annual growth ratehas consistently been in the high single digitsfor more than a decade. It also doesn't hurt that NextEra is front-running any potential green-energy legislation that might come out of Washington.\nIn addition to growth rates that are well above the sector average, NextEra still benefits from the predictability of energy demand. For instance, its regulated utilities (i.e., those not powered by renewable energy) require approval from state utility commissions before price hikes can be passed along to households. This might sound like an inconvenience, but it's actually great news. It means NextEra won't be exposed to potentially volatile wholesale pricing.\nVisa\nWhen the next stock market crash arrives, payment processing kingpinVisa(NYSE:V)is a winning company to confidently buy hand over fist. It's also another brand-name company thatcan still make its shareholders a fortune.\nBuying into the Visa growth story is a simple numbers game. Visa grows its revenue and profits when consumers and businesses are spending more. This happens when the U.S. and global economy are expanding. Although contractions and recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they tend to be short-lived. Meanwhile, periods of economic expansion are almost always measured in years. Buying into Visa during these short-lived crashes or corrections should allow long-term investors to be handsomely rewarded by this numbers game.\nThe other interesting thing about Visa is thatit's shunned becoming a lender. You'd think that Visa could generate big bucks from interest income and fees by lending during these long-lived periods of expansion. But lending would also expose Visa to the credit delinquencies that arise during recessions. Operating solely as a payment processor means not having to set aside cash to cover delinquencies. It's why Visa rebounds so much faster than most financial stocks following a recession.\nAmazon\nLastly (andwho couldn't see this coming?), investors should take any discount they can get during a crash on e-commerce behemothAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN).\nAmazon's online marketplace has proved virtually unstoppable for well over a decade. An April 2021 report from eMarketer pegged the company's share of U.S. online sales at 40.4%. That more than quintuples its next-closest competitor and effectively solidifies Amazon as the go-to source for online shopping in the U.S.\nWhat about those pesky low retail margins, you ask? Amazon has signed up more than 200 million people globally to a Prime membership. The fees collected from Prime members help to offset some of the company's retail-based margin weakness. Prime members are extremely loyal to the Amazon ecosystem and spend far more than non-members, too.\nBut it's Amazon's cloud infrastructure segmentthat's the superstar. Amazon Web Services (AWS) brings in around one-eighth of the company's total sales but accounts for well over half its operating income. Since cloud margins are superior to retail and advertising margins, AWS is the company's key to explosive cash flow growth this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408630,"gmtCreate":1624776402120,"gmtModify":1703845020861,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","listText":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.&nbsp;","text":"Invest the undervalue and just wait.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124408630","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164137597","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624671774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164137597?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-26 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164137597","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.</li>\n <li>The Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.</li>\n <li>Alibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.</li>\n <li>Alibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/814b0a9a0d17977f43665e2eba205b1e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Andrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.</p>\n<p>There are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86da7b532f25f563d08490ddc43cbede\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>The Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions</b></p>\n<p>How many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as&nbsp;Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter &amp; Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)&nbsp;are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.</p>\n<p>Since 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.</p>\n<p>BABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates in<i>Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n</blockquote>\n<p>The gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.</p>\n<p>Moving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a5e036f023fa4ced7666e06aa1de6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>(Source: Alibaba)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba&nbsp;achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.</p>\n<p>BABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth&nbsp;has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China&nbsp;is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey&nbsp;predicts&nbsp;that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.</p>\n<p>If the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbde4a092d19118a2d16daabf5c027d7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source: Blomberg)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization</b></p>\n<p>Cloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from&nbsp;AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.</p>\n<p>In China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in&nbsp;China&nbsp;grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.</p>\n<p>As China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1759b81ce463d503a165d901e2e50d7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"728\"><span>(Source: Canalys)</span></p>\n<p><b>Alibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates</b></p>\n<p>For this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMZN</li>\n <li>BABA</li>\n <li>GOOGL</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>It's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: Can BABA Get Back To $300? Yes, It Can\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436373-alibaba-can-get-back-to-300","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164137597","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe recent downturn in Alibaba's share price has created an investment opportunity for long-term capital appreciation.\nThe Chinese economy is expected to become the world's largest economy by 2028 and more than 500 million people will be part of the middle class by end of 2023.\nAlibaba will experience tailwinds from individuals and businesses spending more money during this period of growth in China.\nAlibaba is the dominant force in cloud services in China which could become a significant revenue growth machine as the economy expands.\n\nAndrew Braun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAlibaba(NYSE:BABA)operates a printing press that keeps spitting out tens of billions from total revenue down to net income. Many companies faced adversity throughout the pandemic, and some are still recovering, but not BABA. Through the worst economic environment for businesses to navigate in recent times, BABA generated over $100 billion in revenue and $20 billion in net income during their recent fiscal year. While BABA didn't get the memo about businesses facing challenges amidst the pandemic, the market must not have read BABA's earnings report or crunched the numbers.\nThere are two Chinese companies I am bullish on, and BABA is my biggest conviction for appreciation. BABA smashed through the $300 share price level at the end of October 2020, but shareholders have been left confused and disappointed since then. It looked like BABA would turn the corner after a horrible end to 2020 as shares appreciated from $222.36 from the close of 2020 to $270.83 in the middle of February 2021. Still, the markets had other plans, and all shares of BABA have done is disappoint shareholders. If you missed the BABA train, it's time to grab your tickets and climb aboard, and if you purchased BABA during its run to $300 or early 2021 rebound, it might be time to add to your holdings. BABA is going to experience tremendous tailwinds from China's population and economic growth over the next several years, and their printing press is going to need more ink.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nThe Alibaba printing press is open for business, and it spits out billions\nHow many companies can say their annual revenue through the pandemic exceeded $100 billion? The $100 billion revenue mark is a prestigious club that companies such as Facebook (FB),PepsiCo (PEP),Procter & Gamble (PG),Target (TGT), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are not part of. BABA, on the other hand, witnessed its revenue increase by 52.11% and smash through $100 billion as they generated $109.47 billion in their recent fiscal year. For the year ending March 2019, BABA's revenue increased by $16.25 billion (40.74%) to $56.15 billion, then for the March 2020 fiscal year, revenue increased another $15.82 billion (28.17%) to $71.97 billion. BABA is in the same boat as Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(GOOGL), FB, and Amazon (AMZN) as they watched the pandemic push more people to go digital which accelerated their businesses. For BABA, the forced transition to digital helped them achieve $37.5 billion (52.11%) in additional revenue as they finished their March 2021 fiscal year with $109.47 billion in revenue.\nSince 2013 BABA has not had a year where their annual revenue increase didn't exceed 25% Year over Year (YoY). When you think about that as a growth rate, it's remarkable for a company of BABA's size as this isn't a company chasing its first billion-dollar revenue year. Over the past 5 fiscal years, BABA's annual revenue has increased by $93.8 billion (408.08%) at an average annual rate of 48.25%. Smaller companies considered growth companies would be jealous of these rates, while many large caps are probably envious.\nBABA isn't a one-trick pony that can only generate tens of billions in revenue. BABA can convert right down to the bottom line. Each year BABA has increased its YoY gross profit by a minimum of 10% since 2013. In 2016 BABA generated $10.35 billion in gross profit and, over the next 5 fiscal years, increased its annual gross profit by $34.84 billion (336.68%). BABA has also never fallen below a 40% gross profit margin, Warren Buffett's magic number, as he indicates inWarren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements. On page 34 of the Kindle edition,it says:\n\n As a very general rule (and there are exceptions): Companies with gross profit margins of 40% or better tend to be companies with some sort of durable competitive advantage. Companies with gross profit margins below 40% tend to be companies in highly competitive industries, where competition is hurting overall profit margins (there are exceptions here, too).\n\nThe gross profit margin is important for investors to evaluate because it reveals how much of a company's revenue goes directly to producing it and if they have a moat around their business. BABA's numbers indicate they have a sufficient moat around their business that is hard to penetrate. With close to a decade of generating over 40% in gross profit margins, investors can expect that BABA's moat will protect its business operations for years to come.\nMoving to the bottom line BABA does a great job at generating profits. In their most recent fiscal year, BABA generated $22.98 billion in net income, converting more than 1/5th (20.99%) of their revenue to pure profits. Since 2013 BABA has only had 1 year where net income decreases YoY. With that track record, many options open up for BABA in the future as their cash stockpile continues to increase.\n(Source: Alibaba)\nAlibaba will continue to experience tailwinds as China's population and economy expands\nAlibaba achieved one billion annual active consumers globally in the fiscal year that ended in March 2021. BABA has 891 million consumers across China's retail marketplace, local consumer services and digital media and entertainment platforms, and approximately 240 million consumers outside China. BABA's annual active consumers in the China retail marketplaces were 811 million as it grew by 85 million YoY. BABA will focus on developing a digital commerce infrastructure that offers an upgraded consumer experience by seamlessly integrating online and offline. Through BABA's infrastructure, countless retailers have digitally transformed their businesses and created multiple retail formats that have enabled new consumption experiences by leveraging consumer insights and technology. BABA's ecosystem, supply chain, and diversified fulfillment services have facilitated an immense digital transformation. By investing in its infrastructure, BABA's customers can now leverage a full range of high-frequency fulfillment services that include on-demand delivery, same-or-next day delivery, and next-day pick-up services for a full range of consumable and physical products.\nBABA will continue to be one of the cornerstones that supports growth within China's economy, which is benefiting from the acceleration of digitalization in all aspects of life and work. China is projected to be the world's largest economy by 2028. The per-capita income in China is expected to grow by roughly 50% from 2020 to 2025.China's average economic growth has been projected to increase at a rate of 5.7% from 2021 to 2025, then slow to 4.5% from 2026 to 2030. As a result,China is on track to join the top 1/3rd of nations and overtake 56 countries in the per capita income rankings by 2025. By the end of 2022, McKinsey predicts that the middle class could expand to 550 million people which is larger than the entire U.S population.\nIf the projections for China are correct, this should mean a windfall of cash lining BABA's coffers. It's a simple recipe; when people make more money, they tend to spend more money to enhance their lives and increase their standard of living. As BABA is a dominant force in China's retail sector, they stand to benefit from a growing economy and a larger middle class. At the end of next year, if China has anywhere close to 550 million individuals in the middle class, I believe BABA's revenue and profits will increase significantly. This trend can provide tailwinds throughout the decade for BABA, and eventually, the market will reward shareholders based on BABA's value proposition.\n(Source: Blomberg)\nAlibaba has tremendous growth prospects in Cloud as China continues its digitization\nCloud computing has been red hot in the U.S. as the transition from on-prem to cloud has increased the technological capabilities for many organizations. As digitization progresses across the business landscape, cloud providers continue to increase revenue generated from their cloud segments within their overall revenue mix. For example, AWS, the cloud computing division from AMZN, generated $45.37 billion in 2020. Cloud continues to be an exciting sector because the digital transformation is far from being over. Hence, the prospects of new customers are enormous while reoccurring revenue is generated after the transition occurs.\nIn China, cloud infrastructure services are still in the early innings as the entire spend was around $15 billion in 2020. In Q1 of 2021, cloud infrastructure services in China grew by 55% YoY as it reached $6 billion. China was the 2nd largest market behind the U.S, accounting for 14% of global investment, up from 12% in Q1 of 2020. With cloud spending and digitization in China increasing, this serves as a major runway for growth in Alibaba Cloud.\nAs China's economy expands, businesses will need to become more efficient to support both operations and customer demands. Chinese companies will need to implement infrastructure that can support a digital age of the workforce while supporting cloud services used by consumers for consumption. If China passes the U.S. as the world's largest economy in the second half of this decade, the amount of growth needed in cloud services will be immense. BABA is already the leader in cloud infrastructure services in China as their 39.8% market share accounted for $2.39 billion of the $6 billion spent in Q1 2021. Over the previous 6 quarters, cloud infrastructure spending has increased by roughly $2.3 billion (76.67%) in China. Based on cloud's current trajectory, quarterly revenue is on track to double over the next 2 years, putting Q1 2023 revenue at $10.6 billion. If BABA has a 35% market share, their Q1 2023 would be $3.71 billion, placing their 2023 revenue for cloud at $14.84 billion without factoring in any growth in 2023. From a cloud aspect, China's future spending is very exciting, and BABA will be one of the major benefactors.\n(Source: Canalys)\nAlibaba has stellar financial metrics and is undervalued compared to the U.S. tech conglomerates\nFor this comparison, I am going to use AMZN and GOOGL as they have been establishing their dominance in the U.S. for more than a decade. First, here are the raw numbers for AMZN, BABA, and GOOGL:\n\nAMZN\nBABA\nGOOGL\n\nThe market currently places a multiple of 17.03x on AMZN's equity compared to its market cap, while its revenue multiple is 4.2x. GOOGL has a multiple of 7.17x on its equity and 8.39x on its revenue compared to market cap. AMZN and GOOGL's market caps exceed $1.5 trillion, while BABA's sits at $575.57 billion. The market is placing a 3.5x multiple on BABA's equity and 5.26x on its revenue compared to the market cap. Thus, the market is severely discounting BABA's equity and revenue generation. BABA's equity is worth 28.58% of its market cap, while AMZN's equity is equivalent to 5.87%, and GOOGL's is 13.94% of its market cap. The current discount placed on BABA's equity could create an additional tailwind for shareholders in the future.\nConclusion\nIt's hard to dismiss the growth opportunities some companies in China are presenting, especially after the recent decline in share prices. However, I believe shares of BABA are currently undervalued based on their current financial metrics and growth rates. China's economy and the amount of capital allocated to cloud service infrastructure are expected to grow substantially over the years. These will create powerful tailwinds for BABA throughout this decade. As a result, I think shareholders have been allowed to establish a BABA or dollar cost average position at a discounted price. I plan on continuing to add shares to my position while the market is discounting BABA.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355243216,"gmtCreate":1617079221735,"gmtModify":1704801677873,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ark","listText":"Ark","text":"Ark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/355243216","repostId":"2123790280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2123790280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616991909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2123790280?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-29 12:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“替上帝配资”的女人！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2123790280","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。","content":"<blockquote>“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。</blockquote><p>很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：</p><p>她投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSYS\">Stratasys</a>，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。</p><p>她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。</p><p>她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，自己也站在资管业风暴的中心。生于华尔街，她却抛弃传统，不顾“纪律”，最终走上一条离经叛道的投资之路，时至今日，一度风光无限，又备受质疑。楼之倾覆或在一夜之间，多少人看过它高楼起，就多少人想看它楼倾覆。</p><p>而要问这一切是如何开始的，ARK Invest的创始人、这位如今家喻户晓的年度“牛市女皇”——年过65岁的伍德女士（Cathie Wood），坐在某张舒服的座椅上，捋了捋及肩的灰褐色长发，扶稳了她的标志性黑框眼镜，徐徐回忆起多年前那个夏天的午后：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c69c183f3df90b688867160c4eb35b5\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><blockquote>那是个美丽的夏日，我回到家里，周围是一片陌生的静寂。三个孩子去基督营了，还有别的什么活动，我突然意识到，接下来两周我都要一个人度过了。</blockquote><blockquote>我和这样的日子分别太久了。走进厨房，我既不快乐也不悲伤，只是有些恍惚……直到一阵突如其来的撼动划破空气，我仿佛听到圣灵在对我说话——</blockquote><blockquote>“来吧，开启你的计划。”我听到他说。</blockquote><blockquote>她说你看，你一辈子都在研究颠覆性创新，何不试着颠覆下自己的行业呢？何不用新的技术革新它？何不将新的想法公之于众，用社交媒体传播它？何不叫上竞争对手，一起碰撞思维的火花？</blockquote><blockquote>他这样说，我遂这样做了。</blockquote><p>“她这样说，我遂这样做了”，于是2014年，57岁的伍德从大名鼎鼎的资管巨头联博（Alliance Bernstein）辞职，创立了这家属于自己的资管公司，并以《圣经》中圣物约柜（ARK）的名字为它命名。</p><p>正如旧约时代的以色列人带着约柜征战，相信神与约柜同在一样，这位虔诚的天主教徒坚信，ARK注定要将资本投向创新，投向未来，投向“神的手笔”，这是在完成上帝交托的使命。</p><p>现在很多中文媒体都将ARK译作“方舟”，虽非伍德本意，却也颇有其自视“身负世界命运”的神韵。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2ef328f314a2d1785b3d3ba7f27e1f1\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>《圣经》中的“约柜”形象</span></p><p>六年过去，对ARK来说，2020年无疑是历史性的一年。3月的史诗级波动如一声号响，撞上疫情的美股在央行大放水中全面复苏，ARK则由于此前打着“颠覆性创新”的旗号狂买科技股和小盘股，成了本轮牛市的头号受益者，旗下ETF包揽全美基金年度冠亚季军，5只表现最好的ETF年度回报平均达141%，规模最高涨超10倍，仿佛神终于为其忠实的信徒降下恩典。</p><p>不过时间又来到今年二月，月初还风光无限的ARK，到了月底就随科技股下跌一路俯冲。越来越多质疑的声音开始涌现。人们说，伍德是否将重蹈上世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期那一大批明星基金经理的覆辙？他们先是飘飘然起飞，又随着泡沫破裂摔得一败涂地。</p><p>大起大落之中，几个月来，有关ARK和伍德本人的报道铺天盖地。<b>人们后知后觉地发现，这位自称替上帝配资本的“牛市女皇”，要不就是信仰界的“传教”高手、基金界的昙花一朵，要不，就可能真是资管业横空出世的颠覆者、是预示未来创新方向的“先知”。</b></p><p><b>游历的童年 好奇的孩子</b></p><p>真要追溯伍德对新生事物的情有独钟，可能还得从她不算安定的童年讲起。</p><p>1955年，伍德出生在美国洛杉矶的一个天主教移民家庭，从小诵经读卷，去教堂做礼拜。她的父母都来自爱尔兰，父亲曾经在爱尔兰陆军和美国空军服役，后来成为了一名成功的雷达系统工程师。</p><p>由于父亲工作的缘故，经常需要带着全家从一个军事基地搬到另一个基地，<b>小时候的伍德从没在哪个地方待过很久，12岁就已经搬了十次家。</b>好在，大概是继承了母亲活泼开明的个性，伍德并未对周遭频繁的变动感到太多不安，反而从适应新环境和探索新事物中，不断迸发出对生活的好奇。</p><p>略微长大之后，和许多移民家庭的孩子一样，她开始经受良好的教育，并在学习上逐渐显露出天赋。圣母学院高中毕业后，1981年，她在南加州大学（USC）获得金融经济学学士学位，以优异的成绩荣誉毕业。</p><p>升入南加大的最初，伍德对未来的设想也很模糊。大三选专业前的两年时间里，她一边在超市打工赚着学费，一边思忖着可能的进修方向：地质学、天文学、工程学……似乎很多都可以尝试，但又没有哪个说得上是多么坚定的选择。</p><p>直到某一学期，在父亲的建议之下，伍德初尝到了宏观经济学的味道——命运的神妙之处就是在那一刻，全身心的感应都告诉你：就是它了。</p><p>伍德深深地着迷于那些从经济活动中诞生，而又凌驾于微观和具体之上的“宏大观点”——遥远的、纵览全局的、直指未来的“宏大观点”。按照她自己的说法，她发现宏观研究是多么该死的迷人，让人大胆地畅想，畅想未来世界运转的方式，比起研究那些已经存在的理论，这是更加要紧的事。</p><p><b>回头来看，这是头一回，那股对未知事物一脉相承的偏爱，以一种直击脑门的方式，帮伍德做了一个重大的人生抉择。</b></p><p>师从名门让伍德在这条路上比其他人走得更快了些。她的导师——经济学教授Arthur Laffer正是著名的“拉弗曲线”的提出者。</p><p>虽是本科生，伍德仍然参加了他教授的研究生课程，凭借着优秀的禀赋深得器重。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf68e0010cae1663dd31058f8a34c7e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>2014年10月21日，Wood和Laffer在纽交所主席台上亮相 图源：Investors’Business Daily</span></p><p><b>年轻的首席：站在共识另一边</b></p><p>也是在拉弗的牵线下，22岁时，伍德进入传统资管巨头Capital Group就任助理经济学家，开启了她的职业生涯。</p><p>1980年，她又在一次偶然机遇下移居纽约，成为了投顾公司Jennison Associates的首席经济学家。<b>也就是说，仅仅三年，伍德就在年仅25岁之时从助理做到了首席。</b></p><p>正值她初担大任之际，美国经济也正经历一番风起云涌的巨变。</p><p>20世纪80年代初的美国正处于高度滞胀的深渊，生产下降和失业率猛增的同时，物价不但没有下跌反而普遍大幅上涨，出现了高通胀、高失业和低经济增长并存的罕见局面。当时美联储新上任的主席保罗·沃尔克试图缩减货币供应来对抗高企的通胀，但始终收效甚微。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1b08eb3a10fa740d150c2486a9ea158\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>美国通胀在1980年升至高点</span></p><p>这一背景下，“末日博士”亨利·考夫曼和米尔顿·弗里德曼等一批当时美国最具权威性的经济学家都绝望地认为，通货膨胀已经成为常态，根深蒂固了。</p><p>伍德则认为不然，<b>她坚持，利率和通货膨胀已经见顶。</b></p><p>Jennison的联合创始人Spiros Segalas与伍德亦师亦友，那段时间，他经常邀请这些学界知名人士来公司分享他们的预测，又出于或训练、或考验、或交流的目的，让伍德站在“反方”，跟他们一对一辩上一辩。</p><p><b>一边是江湖多年、拥有庞大阵营的老将，一边是刚刚做上首席、单看年龄就好像没什么经验的少数派选手，</b>我们无法知道“考夫曼们”究竟是在认真参与这场学术对垒，还是抱着指教后辈的心态倾情演出，但事实最终证明，伍德的判断十分准确，1980年里根政府上台后，通胀和利率得到了不错的控制，从高峰一路下跌。</p><p>目睹了许多场辩论之后，Segalas对伍德做出这样的评价：<b>一位有着不可思议坚定信念的女士。她是目前为止最犀利的一个。</b></p><p>伍德后来说，正是那段日子真正塑造了她自行其是、挑战权威的能力，让她深刻意识到，要时刻警惕那些所谓的“共识”，它们看似不容辩驳，却往往有可商榷的空间——<b>而那些有违“共识”的行为，反而可能有巨大的潜力。</b></p><p>几十年后回首初生牛犊的往昔，伍德会发现，自己做下这一精准预测之时，正站在自身和历史转折交汇的当口。</p><p><b>利率一经回落，随之而来的将是一场长达40年的科技股牛市，而她不久后将参与其中，以同样“特立独行”的姿态战斗数年，直到掀起一番风浪。届时，她将“忤逆”的不再是几位学界的“考夫曼”，而是一整个华尔街。</b></p><p><b>那时的她并未料到这一点。</b></p><p><b>转战股票：在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭</b></p><p>她能嗅到的只是，科技股的风要刮上一阵子了。利率下行为之前深受冲击的科技公司带来了更多成长空间，伍德本来就热爱天文学和工程学，很快决定得坐上这班车。</p><p>于是1985年，她在Jennison从宏观转向股票研究，1990年又兼任该公司的投资组合经理，始终聚焦科技股领域。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab2a3e6a38a1e6cadb57da984a401bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>年轻时的伍德 图源：Jesus Calling</span></p><p>在科技股熙熙攘攘的人潮中，她又一次离开了大部队。</p><p>和利率预测时不同，这一次，违背共识、寻找新事物的信念真正“主动”发挥了作用。</p><p>伍德一上来就问自己，别的分析师肯定把不错的科技股都研究过一轮了，一个也不会放过，那还剩下什么？留给我的是什么？哪些是属于我的股票？</p><p>她随即有了答案。<b>于是，极具倾向性、甚至有些偏执地，伍德开始努力寻找两类股票：</b></p><ul><li>那些过于超前，超前到人们还没引起重视、还来不及一拥而上的领域；</li><li>某些股票位于多个行业的交汇处，而没有任何方面的分析师跟进。伍德认为，这很可能也是创新诞生的地方。</li></ul><p><b>她将自己形容为“一只小狗，在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭”。</b>她说，“当分析师和基金经理都认为某些股票不足挂齿，或无法完美地融入任意一个投资组合中时，通常得多看两眼”，它们可能暂时被低估，但随着时间推移，可能爆发指数级的增长。</p><p>研究股票时，伍德没什么固定的程序、套路可言，<b>只是贪婪地汲取着所能触及的所有信息，加以消化和判断。</b>现任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席投资官的Lisa Shalett曾同她工作过一段时间，回忆说：</p><p>“Cathie的好奇心像是永远得不到满足，她如饥似渴地吸收来自大大小小各类渠道的研究成果，一天24小时不知疲倦地工作，以确保团队拥有最深入的研究，生成最独到的观点。”</p><p><b>有时候，她甚至会听一听直觉讲的话。</b>比如投资路透社（Reuters）时，人们普遍很难理解这种“出版数据库”的商业模式——从金融公司收集数据，再把数据全部卖回给它们，这算什么呢？</p><p>伍德自己也说不好，但她认为这种模式非常创新。她后来回忆说：“当时只是觉得它在干件大事，现在我们知道了，这正是当今互联网概念的缩影。”</p><p><b>我们后面会看到，这种“肆意妄为”的投资风格，一直被伍德保留到了今天。</b></p><p>就这样，伍德在Jennison一待就是18年。余下的几年时光，她一边将三个孩子抚养长大，一边在股票研究的道路上越走越远，也在其独特的选股门道上越走越精。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db68c3edd34e7c90a2ace397b8ebc1c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wood和孩子们 图源：Jesus Calling</span></p><p>1998年，伍德离开Jennison后，先是在对冲基金Tupelo Capital做了3年的有限合伙人，2001年正式加入联博，担任基金经理和专题研究策略师。揣着50亿美元资金的管理规模，伍德在联博继续潜心股票领域，开启了长达12年的又一个职业阶段。</p><p>那时她尚未意识到，伴随着一阵金融风暴的来袭，这段岁月将成为其日后自立门户的关键转折。</p><p><b>摆脱传统 自立门户</b></p><p>在联博，伍德延续一贯的投资风格，走着高增长、高风险、小盘股的路径。2002年下半年开始，美股正值一轮牛市，伍德的投资组合也表现得相当不错。</p><p><b>但随后发生的两件事，让她萌生了摆脱传统基金投资分析框架的想法。</b></p><p>先是2006年，美国房地产泡沫已经达到了相当高的水平，市场上开始出现各种各样矛盾的信号，伍德预计泡沫不久就会破裂。她随即大幅降低了投资组合的头寸。</p><p>然而次贷的盛宴又继续了一年多，清醒得太早的代价是，伍德当年的收益率仅5%，跑输了大盘（12%-13%）将近一千个基点。</p><p>伍德深受打击。而当她对天主教会的导师诉说这件事，向其寻求开解的时候，导师留下一句意味深长的话，完全扭转了她原先看问题的角度：你不能崇拜任何偶像，而现在，市场基准却成了你的偶像。</p><p>第二年，伍德弥补了大部分损失，但在祈祷和冥想中回味起导师的话，她说自己<b>突然意识到，指数投资的成功属于过去，而上帝并不希望我们停留在过去，他希望我们进入新的创造。</b></p><p>从这时起，一个念头逐渐被深耕在伍德心里——<b>要变革原有的投资方式，投资的真正使命是要走向上帝所指引的未来，是要替上帝分配资本。</b></p><p>时间到了08-09年金融危机，高风险的投资策略使得伍德的基金在美股崩盘中，回撤明显大于市场水平。联博看不下去了，要求伍德在持仓中加入标普500等指数来减小波动性。</p><p><b>但是这一次，伍德不愿再受制于所谓的市场“基准”了。</b></p><p>她直截了当地反驳道：“我认为我们太过信奉基准投资法了，针对创新领域的投资则太少。现在有些创新公司在公开市场的价格，甚至只有私募市场的10%，这是个巨大的机会！”</p><p><b>这两件事如一段抑扬顿挫的前奏，最终将伍德引向了同一个方向：2014年，伍德辞去了联博收入稳定的工作，着手建立属于自己的初创公司。</b></p><p>她意识到，想要真正摆脱传统基金公司投资框架下的束手束脚，想要真正践行一套自己的标准和投资理念、大胆把钱投在创新领域，那就只有自立门户。</p><p>ARK的时代就此开始了。</p><p><b>离经叛道的ARK</b></p><p>因而可以说，ARK从最开始就是为了绕开传统资管的条条框框而生的，自然和大家走的不是一条路子。<b>不再寄人篱下的伍德，将其不拘一格释放到极限，向着离经叛道的方向越走越远。</b></p><p>她用一句话就和传统资管划清了界限：</p><blockquote><b>“我们真正要做的是鼓励新的创造，上帝的新创造。</b>我们要将资本配置到它能发挥最高效益的、最有用的地方——那些有望改变世界、改善世界的变革性技术之上。而他们，那些其他的基金业者，只是把钱投向过去，那是最安全的路径。”</blockquote><p><b>“我们”，和“他们”——一边是无惧挑战的、变革性的、先锋的、连接未来的、为“神的创造”分配资产的；另一边，是安全的、翻旧账的、对新兴技术视而不见的、毫无上进心和使命感可言的。</b></p><p>她问，你选哪一方？</p><p>话自然不只说说而已，<b>伍德的“新官上任三把火”延续至今。</b></p><p><b>一则</b>就像那个夏日午后，伍德自称圣灵在自己心里种下的计划一样，成立以来，ARK使命必达地将投资瞄准那些初绽头角的颠覆性技术，<b>对不少传统基金嗤之以鼻的新兴企业都大为鼓励，这与后者怕波动、稳收益的投资策略截然不同。</b></p><p>特斯拉可能是其中最著名、也最成功的例子了。</p><p>伍德五年前就投资了特斯拉，当时股价50美元左右，过去三年，特斯拉一直是ARK的最大持股。伍德认为，特斯拉就是那样一个“位于多个行业的交汇处”的企业，集<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、能源储存于一身，传统的汽车分析师“不知道该怎么办”。</p><p>2018年8月特斯拉股价徘徊在320美元时，马斯克一度考虑将公司私有化，用420美元/股的价格回购所有股票。<b>伍德却是当时99%的市场看跌特斯拉时那1%的声音</b>。她随即向马斯克发了一封公开信，预测称特斯拉在五年内股价最高能达到4000美元，反对其私有化公司。</p><p>那封公开信至今，特斯拉已经发布了Model3，股价从320美元飙升至3500美元(按1比5的拆股比例调整)，伍德独到的眼光也得到了验证。</p><p>根据ARK 2021年投资报告，除了比特币和电动车，如今伍德又将目光驻足到深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造等等多个新兴领域，一如既往不吝对这些象征颠覆性创新的词汇付诸无限热情。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/736971a7c4e609eeaee76c1d1f93c2c0\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"1072\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>图源：Alotta Money</span></p><p><b>二则，和伍德所设想的一样，ARK公司从分析师本身到投资策略，从不拘泥于传统的指标、规则，十足的野路子打法，却不失漂亮。</b></p><p>传统ETF主要被动投资于指数，而伍德的ETF采取主动选股、积极管理策略，这是很罕见的，即便在主动型ETF越来越受欢迎的今天，也只占美国ETF总资产的3%。正如前文提到，伍德很不喜欢指数，认为那衡量是过去的成就。</p><p>她的雇员和传统基金也完全不同，总共30多名员工，很少有华尔街背景或MBA学位的，大多数都是不同行业的专业人士——癌症科学家、人工智能分析师、游戏工程师，甚至船长。他们不懂移动平均线，不懂动量指标，有些甚至连彭博终端都不会用。</p><p>伍德不在乎这些，她看中的就是不同背景、不同领域的专业性。</p><p>她似乎也非常信奉“咖啡馆里出哲学”的理念，以一种极轻松的模式管理着公司。曼哈顿东28街的办公室没有隔间，酒吧式的高脚椅旁边，所有桌子围成一圈，职员们自由地走动、交流、对谈，随时准备着思维的交锋。</p><p><b>三则，传统资管公司总爱深藏不露自己掌握的“独家信息”，ARK则完全不同。伍德的态度是：透明、开放，“信息吸引信息”。</b></p><p>ARK的周度“头脑风暴”会议任何人都可以参加，包括行业专家和竞争对手。团队可以与科学家、工程师、医生和其他专家分享研究成果并进行合作，这在很多传统基金公司是违规行为，是要被开除的。</p><p>不仅如此，伍德还会在Reddit论坛等社交平台上免费发布研究报告，每天公布持仓变动，甚至亲自和网友讨论投资标的，这为其积攒下一大批忠实的粉丝。她认为，这有助于ARK对与市场存在分歧或误解的地方进行反思，更好地理解世界在发生什么。</p><p><b>投资ARK=信上帝、信未来？</b></p><p><b>所谓离经叛道者，人们要么视其为天才，要么笑其为疯子，投资特斯拉的成功有如一剂强心剂，让更多人愿意相信伍德归属前者。</b></p><p>于是这三把火多少在粉丝心中埋下了几分狂热因子，似乎伍德已经为其股票池无可限量的创新前景打了包票——在ARK这里，只要付出时间成本，就能获得金钱回报。</p><p>但更重要的一点是，<b>上面这句话在上帝、信仰、未来这些概念的贯穿下，卸下了俗套的外衣，听起来慷慨激昂，振奋人心。</b></p><p><b>想想吧，投资ARK，和笃信未来挂了钩。</b>如果巴菲特、芒格版价值投资算是经验主义的王道，那么ARK这套轰轰烈烈的说法就有些形而上的架势了。</p><p>总的来说，人还是爱幻想的动物，对于虚无缥缈着的东西总容易信点什么。你可以不信特斯拉、不信比特币，但你信技术吗，信技术的发展吗？你可以不信ARK，但你信“上帝的使命”吗？你说你不是基督徒，那你信未来吗？当ARK信誓旦旦地描画着未来，你又能喊出同样的音量反驳说，未来并非如此吗？</p><p>毕竟，那个被所有人称作是骗子的特斯拉真的干成了不是吗，它颠覆了整个汽车业，从金属到能源也为之改变——那么比特币呢？那么一路看好特斯拉到现在的ARK呢？</p><p>这套思维的力量比想象中要大得多。</p><p>就算在路途中受了些苦，比如净值暴跌了30个点什么的……一些投资者也会觉得自己是在为未来买单，是林中有两条路，选择了布满荆棘的那条，是坚持到最后的人笑得最大声。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaf28c6de9e5b0e0e414e8b6c9db7dd0\" tg-width=\"1174\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>截至3/8，ARK五只表现最好的ETF自高点平均下跌近30个点，图为旗舰基金ARKK净值曲线</span></p><p>但确实如此，谁又说得准未来呢？有限的钱包是否真的可以为无限的信仰买单，即便未来确乎如此，坚持得到的又是多远的未来？</p><p>比如，今年的结局又将是如何。</p><p>2021年对ARK无疑是严峻挑战的一年。风风火火的几个月过去，ARK与特斯拉、比特币之间千丝万缕的联系几乎酿成了“三位一体”的风险格局，去年年底伍德还告诉媒体，有决心未来五年把投资人的钱翻三倍，不料进入2021年才两个月，股价就开始掉头向下，开局不利。</p><p>对小盘股的钟爱还始终是一大隐患。有分析师举例，ARK旗下ARKG基金持仓的标的中有20家超过流通股本的5%，占全部持仓标的比例为45.45%，ARK已经成为不少标的的第一大股东，一旦市场环境不好或板块热度下降，基金净值可能会出现利空叠加流动性风险带来的大幅下跌。</p><p><b>人们在恐慌中再次回想起上世纪90年代的美股市场——那座用泡沫堆成的高楼一夜之间轰然倒塌，也将一众刚升起不久的“资管新星”埋在废墟之下。</b></p><p>比如，曾在1991年至2005连续15年间跑赢标普500指数的明星基金经理比尔·米勒（Bill Miller），08年金融危机时却惨遭滑铁卢，一度被市场形容为“晚节不保”。</p><p>又比如共同基金公司Janus（古罗马神话中的两面神），1998年底至2000年3月间，从美国第20大共同基金公司发展到第5大，短短十年规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿。就连曾任美国总统的克林顿都把个人账户交托Janus管理。</p><p>但随着互联网泡沫破裂，其部分基金产品净值一下子暴跌三分之二，“两面神”的神话也就此灰飞烟灭。和ARK一样，Janus恰好也对科技股和小盘股情有独钟，也恰好是一副放眼未来，一旦看好就重拳出击的自信架势。</p><p>那么如今的ARK，会成为下一个两面神吗？如今的伍德，会是下一个跌落神坛的米勒吗？还是，它们将成为下一个特斯拉和马斯克，度过艰难的日子，真正站上行业变革的中心？</p><p>两年多前马斯克在节目上一口大麻一口酒，愁眉不展地度过特斯拉最艰难的日子。如今，伍德也正迎来这样的时候吗？</p><p>而后，马斯克真的成了汽车领域的颠覆者，传统车企不得不大象掉头奋起直追，伍德也将这样地拨云开雾吗？</p><p>华尔街将出现更多的ARK吗？更透明、更开放、更具活力的资管业正在形成吗？</p><p>遵从上帝的话，诺亚建好了方舟，那年方舟从大洪水中存活下来，神说“我使云彩盖地的时候，必有虹现在云中”。</p><p>如今“遵从圣灵之托”，伍德建成ARK也来到第七个年头，大洪水化身金融市场的风暴袭来，云雾遮挡视线。伍德能够带领整船的人翻过洪水，真正掀起行业变革的风吗？她能见到，神降下的虹吗？</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“替上帝配资”的女人！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 12:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：她投资特斯拉，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司Stratasys，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c69c183f3df90b688867160c4eb35b5","relate_stocks":{"ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623490","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2123790280","content_text":"“木头姐”Cathie Wood：给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。很难想象这样一番撼动市场的格局：她投资特斯拉，赌它颠覆汽车领域；她投资比特币，赌它掀翻货币体系；她筹备太空基金，放眼火星未来；她投资流媒体平台Roku、移动支付公司Square、3D打印公司Stratasys，它们走在技术进步的前沿，共同拨动着当代生活变革的杠杆。她说给我几个支点，让我撬动整个世界。她将赌注下在各行各业的颠覆者上，自己也站在资管业风暴的中心。生于华尔街，她却抛弃传统，不顾“纪律”，最终走上一条离经叛道的投资之路，时至今日，一度风光无限，又备受质疑。楼之倾覆或在一夜之间，多少人看过它高楼起，就多少人想看它楼倾覆。而要问这一切是如何开始的，ARK Invest的创始人、这位如今家喻户晓的年度“牛市女皇”——年过65岁的伍德女士（Cathie Wood），坐在某张舒服的座椅上，捋了捋及肩的灰褐色长发，扶稳了她的标志性黑框眼镜，徐徐回忆起多年前那个夏天的午后：那是个美丽的夏日，我回到家里，周围是一片陌生的静寂。三个孩子去基督营了，还有别的什么活动，我突然意识到，接下来两周我都要一个人度过了。我和这样的日子分别太久了。走进厨房，我既不快乐也不悲伤，只是有些恍惚……直到一阵突如其来的撼动划破空气，我仿佛听到圣灵在对我说话——“来吧，开启你的计划。”我听到他说。她说你看，你一辈子都在研究颠覆性创新，何不试着颠覆下自己的行业呢？何不用新的技术革新它？何不将新的想法公之于众，用社交媒体传播它？何不叫上竞争对手，一起碰撞思维的火花？他这样说，我遂这样做了。“她这样说，我遂这样做了”，于是2014年，57岁的伍德从大名鼎鼎的资管巨头联博（Alliance Bernstein）辞职，创立了这家属于自己的资管公司，并以《圣经》中圣物约柜（ARK）的名字为它命名。正如旧约时代的以色列人带着约柜征战，相信神与约柜同在一样，这位虔诚的天主教徒坚信，ARK注定要将资本投向创新，投向未来，投向“神的手笔”，这是在完成上帝交托的使命。现在很多中文媒体都将ARK译作“方舟”，虽非伍德本意，却也颇有其自视“身负世界命运”的神韵。《圣经》中的“约柜”形象六年过去，对ARK来说，2020年无疑是历史性的一年。3月的史诗级波动如一声号响，撞上疫情的美股在央行大放水中全面复苏，ARK则由于此前打着“颠覆性创新”的旗号狂买科技股和小盘股，成了本轮牛市的头号受益者，旗下ETF包揽全美基金年度冠亚季军，5只表现最好的ETF年度回报平均达141%，规模最高涨超10倍，仿佛神终于为其忠实的信徒降下恩典。不过时间又来到今年二月，月初还风光无限的ARK，到了月底就随科技股下跌一路俯冲。越来越多质疑的声音开始涌现。人们说，伍德是否将重蹈上世纪90年代互联网泡沫时期那一大批明星基金经理的覆辙？他们先是飘飘然起飞，又随着泡沫破裂摔得一败涂地。大起大落之中，几个月来，有关ARK和伍德本人的报道铺天盖地。人们后知后觉地发现，这位自称替上帝配资本的“牛市女皇”，要不就是信仰界的“传教”高手、基金界的昙花一朵，要不，就可能真是资管业横空出世的颠覆者、是预示未来创新方向的“先知”。游历的童年 好奇的孩子真要追溯伍德对新生事物的情有独钟，可能还得从她不算安定的童年讲起。1955年，伍德出生在美国洛杉矶的一个天主教移民家庭，从小诵经读卷，去教堂做礼拜。她的父母都来自爱尔兰，父亲曾经在爱尔兰陆军和美国空军服役，后来成为了一名成功的雷达系统工程师。由于父亲工作的缘故，经常需要带着全家从一个军事基地搬到另一个基地，小时候的伍德从没在哪个地方待过很久，12岁就已经搬了十次家。好在，大概是继承了母亲活泼开明的个性，伍德并未对周遭频繁的变动感到太多不安，反而从适应新环境和探索新事物中，不断迸发出对生活的好奇。略微长大之后，和许多移民家庭的孩子一样，她开始经受良好的教育，并在学习上逐渐显露出天赋。圣母学院高中毕业后，1981年，她在南加州大学（USC）获得金融经济学学士学位，以优异的成绩荣誉毕业。升入南加大的最初，伍德对未来的设想也很模糊。大三选专业前的两年时间里，她一边在超市打工赚着学费，一边思忖着可能的进修方向：地质学、天文学、工程学……似乎很多都可以尝试，但又没有哪个说得上是多么坚定的选择。直到某一学期，在父亲的建议之下，伍德初尝到了宏观经济学的味道——命运的神妙之处就是在那一刻，全身心的感应都告诉你：就是它了。伍德深深地着迷于那些从经济活动中诞生，而又凌驾于微观和具体之上的“宏大观点”——遥远的、纵览全局的、直指未来的“宏大观点”。按照她自己的说法，她发现宏观研究是多么该死的迷人，让人大胆地畅想，畅想未来世界运转的方式，比起研究那些已经存在的理论，这是更加要紧的事。回头来看，这是头一回，那股对未知事物一脉相承的偏爱，以一种直击脑门的方式，帮伍德做了一个重大的人生抉择。师从名门让伍德在这条路上比其他人走得更快了些。她的导师——经济学教授Arthur Laffer正是著名的“拉弗曲线”的提出者。虽是本科生，伍德仍然参加了他教授的研究生课程，凭借着优秀的禀赋深得器重。2014年10月21日，Wood和Laffer在纽交所主席台上亮相 图源：Investors’Business Daily年轻的首席：站在共识另一边也是在拉弗的牵线下，22岁时，伍德进入传统资管巨头Capital Group就任助理经济学家，开启了她的职业生涯。1980年，她又在一次偶然机遇下移居纽约，成为了投顾公司Jennison Associates的首席经济学家。也就是说，仅仅三年，伍德就在年仅25岁之时从助理做到了首席。正值她初担大任之际，美国经济也正经历一番风起云涌的巨变。20世纪80年代初的美国正处于高度滞胀的深渊，生产下降和失业率猛增的同时，物价不但没有下跌反而普遍大幅上涨，出现了高通胀、高失业和低经济增长并存的罕见局面。当时美联储新上任的主席保罗·沃尔克试图缩减货币供应来对抗高企的通胀，但始终收效甚微。美国通胀在1980年升至高点这一背景下，“末日博士”亨利·考夫曼和米尔顿·弗里德曼等一批当时美国最具权威性的经济学家都绝望地认为，通货膨胀已经成为常态，根深蒂固了。伍德则认为不然，她坚持，利率和通货膨胀已经见顶。Jennison的联合创始人Spiros Segalas与伍德亦师亦友，那段时间，他经常邀请这些学界知名人士来公司分享他们的预测，又出于或训练、或考验、或交流的目的，让伍德站在“反方”，跟他们一对一辩上一辩。一边是江湖多年、拥有庞大阵营的老将，一边是刚刚做上首席、单看年龄就好像没什么经验的少数派选手，我们无法知道“考夫曼们”究竟是在认真参与这场学术对垒，还是抱着指教后辈的心态倾情演出，但事实最终证明，伍德的判断十分准确，1980年里根政府上台后，通胀和利率得到了不错的控制，从高峰一路下跌。目睹了许多场辩论之后，Segalas对伍德做出这样的评价：一位有着不可思议坚定信念的女士。她是目前为止最犀利的一个。伍德后来说，正是那段日子真正塑造了她自行其是、挑战权威的能力，让她深刻意识到，要时刻警惕那些所谓的“共识”，它们看似不容辩驳，却往往有可商榷的空间——而那些有违“共识”的行为，反而可能有巨大的潜力。几十年后回首初生牛犊的往昔，伍德会发现，自己做下这一精准预测之时，正站在自身和历史转折交汇的当口。利率一经回落，随之而来的将是一场长达40年的科技股牛市，而她不久后将参与其中，以同样“特立独行”的姿态战斗数年，直到掀起一番风浪。届时，她将“忤逆”的不再是几位学界的“考夫曼”，而是一整个华尔街。那时的她并未料到这一点。转战股票：在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭她能嗅到的只是，科技股的风要刮上一阵子了。利率下行为之前深受冲击的科技公司带来了更多成长空间，伍德本来就热爱天文学和工程学，很快决定得坐上这班车。于是1985年，她在Jennison从宏观转向股票研究，1990年又兼任该公司的投资组合经理，始终聚焦科技股领域。年轻时的伍德 图源：Jesus Calling在科技股熙熙攘攘的人潮中，她又一次离开了大部队。和利率预测时不同，这一次，违背共识、寻找新事物的信念真正“主动”发挥了作用。伍德一上来就问自己，别的分析师肯定把不错的科技股都研究过一轮了，一个也不会放过，那还剩下什么？留给我的是什么？哪些是属于我的股票？她随即有了答案。于是，极具倾向性、甚至有些偏执地，伍德开始努力寻找两类股票：那些过于超前，超前到人们还没引起重视、还来不及一拥而上的领域；某些股票位于多个行业的交汇处，而没有任何方面的分析师跟进。伍德认为，这很可能也是创新诞生的地方。她将自己形容为“一只小狗，在桌子底下寻找残羹剩饭”。她说，“当分析师和基金经理都认为某些股票不足挂齿，或无法完美地融入任意一个投资组合中时，通常得多看两眼”，它们可能暂时被低估，但随着时间推移，可能爆发指数级的增长。研究股票时，伍德没什么固定的程序、套路可言，只是贪婪地汲取着所能触及的所有信息，加以消化和判断。现任摩根士丹利首席投资官的Lisa Shalett曾同她工作过一段时间，回忆说：“Cathie的好奇心像是永远得不到满足，她如饥似渴地吸收来自大大小小各类渠道的研究成果，一天24小时不知疲倦地工作，以确保团队拥有最深入的研究，生成最独到的观点。”有时候，她甚至会听一听直觉讲的话。比如投资路透社（Reuters）时，人们普遍很难理解这种“出版数据库”的商业模式——从金融公司收集数据，再把数据全部卖回给它们，这算什么呢？伍德自己也说不好，但她认为这种模式非常创新。她后来回忆说：“当时只是觉得它在干件大事，现在我们知道了，这正是当今互联网概念的缩影。”我们后面会看到，这种“肆意妄为”的投资风格，一直被伍德保留到了今天。就这样，伍德在Jennison一待就是18年。余下的几年时光，她一边将三个孩子抚养长大，一边在股票研究的道路上越走越远，也在其独特的选股门道上越走越精。Wood和孩子们 图源：Jesus Calling1998年，伍德离开Jennison后，先是在对冲基金Tupelo Capital做了3年的有限合伙人，2001年正式加入联博，担任基金经理和专题研究策略师。揣着50亿美元资金的管理规模，伍德在联博继续潜心股票领域，开启了长达12年的又一个职业阶段。那时她尚未意识到，伴随着一阵金融风暴的来袭，这段岁月将成为其日后自立门户的关键转折。摆脱传统 自立门户在联博，伍德延续一贯的投资风格，走着高增长、高风险、小盘股的路径。2002年下半年开始，美股正值一轮牛市，伍德的投资组合也表现得相当不错。但随后发生的两件事，让她萌生了摆脱传统基金投资分析框架的想法。先是2006年，美国房地产泡沫已经达到了相当高的水平，市场上开始出现各种各样矛盾的信号，伍德预计泡沫不久就会破裂。她随即大幅降低了投资组合的头寸。然而次贷的盛宴又继续了一年多，清醒得太早的代价是，伍德当年的收益率仅5%，跑输了大盘（12%-13%）将近一千个基点。伍德深受打击。而当她对天主教会的导师诉说这件事，向其寻求开解的时候，导师留下一句意味深长的话，完全扭转了她原先看问题的角度：你不能崇拜任何偶像，而现在，市场基准却成了你的偶像。第二年，伍德弥补了大部分损失，但在祈祷和冥想中回味起导师的话，她说自己突然意识到，指数投资的成功属于过去，而上帝并不希望我们停留在过去，他希望我们进入新的创造。从这时起，一个念头逐渐被深耕在伍德心里——要变革原有的投资方式，投资的真正使命是要走向上帝所指引的未来，是要替上帝分配资本。时间到了08-09年金融危机，高风险的投资策略使得伍德的基金在美股崩盘中，回撤明显大于市场水平。联博看不下去了，要求伍德在持仓中加入标普500等指数来减小波动性。但是这一次，伍德不愿再受制于所谓的市场“基准”了。她直截了当地反驳道：“我认为我们太过信奉基准投资法了，针对创新领域的投资则太少。现在有些创新公司在公开市场的价格，甚至只有私募市场的10%，这是个巨大的机会！”这两件事如一段抑扬顿挫的前奏，最终将伍德引向了同一个方向：2014年，伍德辞去了联博收入稳定的工作，着手建立属于自己的初创公司。她意识到，想要真正摆脱传统基金公司投资框架下的束手束脚，想要真正践行一套自己的标准和投资理念、大胆把钱投在创新领域，那就只有自立门户。ARK的时代就此开始了。离经叛道的ARK因而可以说，ARK从最开始就是为了绕开传统资管的条条框框而生的，自然和大家走的不是一条路子。不再寄人篱下的伍德，将其不拘一格释放到极限，向着离经叛道的方向越走越远。她用一句话就和传统资管划清了界限：“我们真正要做的是鼓励新的创造，上帝的新创造。我们要将资本配置到它能发挥最高效益的、最有用的地方——那些有望改变世界、改善世界的变革性技术之上。而他们，那些其他的基金业者，只是把钱投向过去，那是最安全的路径。”“我们”，和“他们”——一边是无惧挑战的、变革性的、先锋的、连接未来的、为“神的创造”分配资产的；另一边，是安全的、翻旧账的、对新兴技术视而不见的、毫无上进心和使命感可言的。她问，你选哪一方？话自然不只说说而已，伍德的“新官上任三把火”延续至今。一则就像那个夏日午后，伍德自称圣灵在自己心里种下的计划一样，成立以来，ARK使命必达地将投资瞄准那些初绽头角的颠覆性技术，对不少传统基金嗤之以鼻的新兴企业都大为鼓励，这与后者怕波动、稳收益的投资策略截然不同。特斯拉可能是其中最著名、也最成功的例子了。伍德五年前就投资了特斯拉，当时股价50美元左右，过去三年，特斯拉一直是ARK的最大持股。伍德认为，特斯拉就是那样一个“位于多个行业的交汇处”的企业，集机器人、人工智能、能源储存于一身，传统的汽车分析师“不知道该怎么办”。2018年8月特斯拉股价徘徊在320美元时，马斯克一度考虑将公司私有化，用420美元/股的价格回购所有股票。伍德却是当时99%的市场看跌特斯拉时那1%的声音。她随即向马斯克发了一封公开信，预测称特斯拉在五年内股价最高能达到4000美元，反对其私有化公司。那封公开信至今，特斯拉已经发布了Model3，股价从320美元飙升至3500美元(按1比5的拆股比例调整)，伍德独到的眼光也得到了验证。根据ARK 2021年投资报告，除了比特币和电动车，如今伍德又将目光驻足到深度学习、新一代基因测序、数据中心再创造等等多个新兴领域，一如既往不吝对这些象征颠覆性创新的词汇付诸无限热情。图源：Alotta Money二则，和伍德所设想的一样，ARK公司从分析师本身到投资策略，从不拘泥于传统的指标、规则，十足的野路子打法，却不失漂亮。传统ETF主要被动投资于指数，而伍德的ETF采取主动选股、积极管理策略，这是很罕见的，即便在主动型ETF越来越受欢迎的今天，也只占美国ETF总资产的3%。正如前文提到，伍德很不喜欢指数，认为那衡量是过去的成就。她的雇员和传统基金也完全不同，总共30多名员工，很少有华尔街背景或MBA学位的，大多数都是不同行业的专业人士——癌症科学家、人工智能分析师、游戏工程师，甚至船长。他们不懂移动平均线，不懂动量指标，有些甚至连彭博终端都不会用。伍德不在乎这些，她看中的就是不同背景、不同领域的专业性。她似乎也非常信奉“咖啡馆里出哲学”的理念，以一种极轻松的模式管理着公司。曼哈顿东28街的办公室没有隔间，酒吧式的高脚椅旁边，所有桌子围成一圈，职员们自由地走动、交流、对谈，随时准备着思维的交锋。三则，传统资管公司总爱深藏不露自己掌握的“独家信息”，ARK则完全不同。伍德的态度是：透明、开放，“信息吸引信息”。ARK的周度“头脑风暴”会议任何人都可以参加，包括行业专家和竞争对手。团队可以与科学家、工程师、医生和其他专家分享研究成果并进行合作，这在很多传统基金公司是违规行为，是要被开除的。不仅如此，伍德还会在Reddit论坛等社交平台上免费发布研究报告，每天公布持仓变动，甚至亲自和网友讨论投资标的，这为其积攒下一大批忠实的粉丝。她认为，这有助于ARK对与市场存在分歧或误解的地方进行反思，更好地理解世界在发生什么。投资ARK=信上帝、信未来？所谓离经叛道者，人们要么视其为天才，要么笑其为疯子，投资特斯拉的成功有如一剂强心剂，让更多人愿意相信伍德归属前者。于是这三把火多少在粉丝心中埋下了几分狂热因子，似乎伍德已经为其股票池无可限量的创新前景打了包票——在ARK这里，只要付出时间成本，就能获得金钱回报。但更重要的一点是，上面这句话在上帝、信仰、未来这些概念的贯穿下，卸下了俗套的外衣，听起来慷慨激昂，振奋人心。想想吧，投资ARK，和笃信未来挂了钩。如果巴菲特、芒格版价值投资算是经验主义的王道，那么ARK这套轰轰烈烈的说法就有些形而上的架势了。总的来说，人还是爱幻想的动物，对于虚无缥缈着的东西总容易信点什么。你可以不信特斯拉、不信比特币，但你信技术吗，信技术的发展吗？你可以不信ARK，但你信“上帝的使命”吗？你说你不是基督徒，那你信未来吗？当ARK信誓旦旦地描画着未来，你又能喊出同样的音量反驳说，未来并非如此吗？毕竟，那个被所有人称作是骗子的特斯拉真的干成了不是吗，它颠覆了整个汽车业，从金属到能源也为之改变——那么比特币呢？那么一路看好特斯拉到现在的ARK呢？这套思维的力量比想象中要大得多。就算在路途中受了些苦，比如净值暴跌了30个点什么的……一些投资者也会觉得自己是在为未来买单，是林中有两条路，选择了布满荆棘的那条，是坚持到最后的人笑得最大声。截至3/8，ARK五只表现最好的ETF自高点平均下跌近30个点，图为旗舰基金ARKK净值曲线但确实如此，谁又说得准未来呢？有限的钱包是否真的可以为无限的信仰买单，即便未来确乎如此，坚持得到的又是多远的未来？比如，今年的结局又将是如何。2021年对ARK无疑是严峻挑战的一年。风风火火的几个月过去，ARK与特斯拉、比特币之间千丝万缕的联系几乎酿成了“三位一体”的风险格局，去年年底伍德还告诉媒体，有决心未来五年把投资人的钱翻三倍，不料进入2021年才两个月，股价就开始掉头向下，开局不利。对小盘股的钟爱还始终是一大隐患。有分析师举例，ARK旗下ARKG基金持仓的标的中有20家超过流通股本的5%，占全部持仓标的比例为45.45%，ARK已经成为不少标的的第一大股东，一旦市场环境不好或板块热度下降，基金净值可能会出现利空叠加流动性风险带来的大幅下跌。人们在恐慌中再次回想起上世纪90年代的美股市场——那座用泡沫堆成的高楼一夜之间轰然倒塌，也将一众刚升起不久的“资管新星”埋在废墟之下。比如，曾在1991年至2005连续15年间跑赢标普500指数的明星基金经理比尔·米勒（Bill Miller），08年金融危机时却惨遭滑铁卢，一度被市场形容为“晚节不保”。又比如共同基金公司Janus（古罗马神话中的两面神），1998年底至2000年3月间，从美国第20大共同基金公司发展到第5大，短短十年规模从30亿美元扩张到3000亿。就连曾任美国总统的克林顿都把个人账户交托Janus管理。但随着互联网泡沫破裂，其部分基金产品净值一下子暴跌三分之二，“两面神”的神话也就此灰飞烟灭。和ARK一样，Janus恰好也对科技股和小盘股情有独钟，也恰好是一副放眼未来，一旦看好就重拳出击的自信架势。那么如今的ARK，会成为下一个两面神吗？如今的伍德，会是下一个跌落神坛的米勒吗？还是，它们将成为下一个特斯拉和马斯克，度过艰难的日子，真正站上行业变革的中心？两年多前马斯克在节目上一口大麻一口酒，愁眉不展地度过特斯拉最艰难的日子。如今，伍德也正迎来这样的时候吗？而后，马斯克真的成了汽车领域的颠覆者，传统车企不得不大象掉头奋起直追，伍德也将这样地拨云开雾吗？华尔街将出现更多的ARK吗？更透明、更开放、更具活力的资管业正在形成吗？遵从上帝的话，诺亚建好了方舟，那年方舟从大洪水中存活下来，神说“我使云彩盖地的时候，必有虹现在云中”。如今“遵从圣灵之托”，伍德建成ARK也来到第七个年头，大洪水化身金融市场的风暴袭来，云雾遮挡视线。伍德能够带领整船的人翻过洪水，真正掀起行业变革的风吗？她能见到，神降下的虹吗？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327745021,"gmtCreate":1616130322963,"gmtModify":1704791338562,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","listText":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","text":"More seeking alpha article. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/327745021","repostId":"1167332168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167332168","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615992072,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167332168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-17 22:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167332168","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival $Tencent$ 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the","content":"<p>(March 17)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> stocks advanced&nbsp;&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ee99cf497f367f259eb1a8a4cc10198\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Alibaba&nbsp;plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a> 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.</p><p><i>Bloomberg</i>sourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.</p><p>Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.</p><p>Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments industry.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 22:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3673581-alibaba-stock-on-watch-as-company-eyes-tencent-related-antitrust-concession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1167332168","content_text":"(March 17) Alibaba stocks advanced  more than 2%.Alibaba plans to set up a version of its TaobaoDeals app that can operate on rival Tencent 's WeChat socialnetwork in a concession to Chinese regulators cracking down on tech company overreach.Bloombergsourcessay Alibaba has already started to invite some merchants to participate in the lite bargain app, which will also allow Alibaba merchants to accept WeChat Pay for the first time.Tencent will have to approve of the app before it appears on WeChat, which has more than one billion users and already offers online payment and ride-sharing services.Alibaba and Tencent are both in the crosshairs of Chinese regulators due to the former's ties to Jack Ma and his Ant Group fintech and the latter's participation in the payments industry.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361681406,"gmtCreate":1614228767005,"gmtModify":1704889881339,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking alpha article is the best","listText":"Seeking alpha article is the best","text":"Seeking alpha article is the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/361681406","repostId":"1115367460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149820685,"gmtCreate":1625715669947,"gmtModify":1703747006393,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149820685","repostId":"1195805799","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195805799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625644452,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195805799?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 15:54","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195805799","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"From the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.The price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.Fundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.Alibaba Groupnow represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the n","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>From the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.</li>\n <li>The price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction.&nbsp;And this correction is most likely already completed.</li>\n <li>Fundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Thesis</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF)now represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the near future.</p>\n<p>Part 1: Fundamental analysis</p>\n<p>Among the fundamental analysis tools, in this case, I find DCF modeling the most suitable because this method gives a rough idea of a company’s current rational value based on its development trends, the situation in the debt market and current volatility. In addition, this method allows you to look at the company as unbiased as possible.</p>\n<p>The quality of the DCF model is largely determined by the quality of the long-term company’s revenue forecast, incorporated in the model. To consider a conservative scenario, when predicting Alibaba's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the lower bound of analysts'expectations. In my opinion, the CAGR of 15% over the next 10 years is more than realistic for Alibaba, given the current growth rate of China's economy. Let me remind you that the company receives more than 90% of its revenue in the domestic market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53010c963ff2d110ab8caa4b8639d3fe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>In addition, the model assumes a gradual decrease in the operating margin to 11% in the terminal year. This condition is dictated by the desire to consider a pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is in line with the trend shown by the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f745edf64e78553f2d0975d39710a8e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts</p>\n<p>To calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, I used thecurrent yield of China 10-Year Bondas a risk-free rate for the Chinese market (3.11%),equity risk premium(5.4%) and 3-yearrolling beta coefficient(0.6). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1. To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 FY divided by the debt value for the same years. Here is the calculation:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f88ac415a591de21c8392e67a5b4494\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p>\n<p>Among other parameters, the following should be highlighted:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>The relative size of CAPEX will remain at the five-year average.</li>\n <li>The tax rate will amount to 27%.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>And, here's the model itself:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c86901f09a266e8e3ceb828ab09f4a0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: Author</i></p>\n<p><i>The DCF-based target price of Alibaba's shares is ~$500, offering 130% upside. Please note that the considered scenario for the development of Alibaba cannot be called optimistic.</i></p>\n<p>Part 2: Technical analysis</p>\n<p>This block should begin with the fact that from the very moment of the IPO in 2017, the company's share price continues to move along the upward support. The monthly chart demonstrates this very well:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3c2a6bdf2aa4515f183e3906672ac9\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Separately, it is worth noting that the fall in the price of Alibaba shares, which we have been observing since the end of 2020, fully fits into this pattern.<i>In other words, in a technical context, nothing extraordinary has happened here over the past eight months.</i></p>\n<p>Now, let's move on to the weekly chart and take a closer look at the last two years.</p>\n<p>The last major full wave (growth and correction), which stands out in the dynamics of the company's share price, began in March 2020. And if we assume that in May 2021 the price of Alibaba's share reached its local minimum, then we get a pattern that is in very good agreement with theFibonacci retracement levels.In addition, the preservation of the macro uptrend is confirmed again because<i>the end of the wave is higher than its beginning.</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3600db32e0f86b2741bdbe516a7b19d2\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Now, let's move on to the daily chart and focus on the last eight months.</p>\n<p>The fall in the company's share price, which began in November last year, clearly consists of three waves, indicated in the following chart by the letters A, B, C. (<i>By the way, according to theElliott Wave Theory, the correction should consist of three waves.)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b790996d6facd6effb4a2b8e455800ba\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>In addition, for the last eight months, the price had been falling without breaking through the resistance line, which is marked in red on the previous chart. And only on June 24, the share price rose above this line. A day later, the stock rallied above the 50-day moving average.<i>Agree, the technical picture is quite clear and positive.</i></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also want to draw your attention to the dynamics of theMACDindicator:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346c067c36b033a29857ae91717fc897\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: TradingView.com, Author</i></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of the year, this indicator has been showing a steady upward trend. And now it is already in the positive zone.</p>\n<p><i>In my opinion, all this indicates that the correction is most likely completed. Now a new, upward wave is emerging.</i></p>\n<p>And one more thing. Shares of Alibaba, much like the shares of most public companies, follow their long-term exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Here is this trend:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc925fcc792b16d970c8a0da5cd8202\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com</i></p>\n<p>Now, the company's stock price is below this trend by one standard deviation. But overall, the trend doesn't seem broken.<i>And just a return of the price to the balanced state within the framework of this model would mean an increase of 35%.</i></p>\n<p>Bottom line</p>\n<p>In the context of investments, the key factors for success are patience and objectivity in the perception of the situation. In my opinion, this is even more important than deep theoretical knowledge.</p>\n<p>I do not and cannot have all the information regarding Alibaba Group. But I clearly see that in the context of technical analysis, the situation here is positive. Moreover, the price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.</p>\n<p>Fundamental analysis is no less unambiguous. The undervaluation of the company is at least 100%.</p>\n<p>In talking about Alibaba, it is impossible to ignore the sovereign risks, which have especially increased in the last year. Much has already been written on this topic, in particular, I evenassessedthese risks through the calculation of the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). But any risk comes at a price. And in my opinion, it is the technical analysis that shows well that this risk is already taken into account in the price of the company.</p>\n<p>Therefore, there is no need to complicate things. You just need to be patient. The company's price is potentially prone to rise in price by at least 30% in the next six months.</p>\n<p>Just be patient!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: A Rare Case Of Bullish Technicals And Fundamentals\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 15:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals><strong>seeking alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nFrom the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.\nThe price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437988-alibaba-rare-case-bullish-technicals-fundamentals","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195805799","content_text":"Summary\n\nFrom the very moment of the IPO in 2017, Alibaba's share price continues to move along the upward support.\nThe price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamentally, the company is undervalued by at least 100%.\n\nThesis\nAlibaba Group(NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF)now represents that rare case when both technical and fundamental analysis simultaneously indicate a very likely increase in the company's capitalization in the near future.\nPart 1: Fundamental analysis\nAmong the fundamental analysis tools, in this case, I find DCF modeling the most suitable because this method gives a rough idea of a company’s current rational value based on its development trends, the situation in the debt market and current volatility. In addition, this method allows you to look at the company as unbiased as possible.\nThe quality of the DCF model is largely determined by the quality of the long-term company’s revenue forecast, incorporated in the model. To consider a conservative scenario, when predicting Alibaba's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the lower bound of analysts'expectations. In my opinion, the CAGR of 15% over the next 10 years is more than realistic for Alibaba, given the current growth rate of China's economy. Let me remind you that the company receives more than 90% of its revenue in the domestic market.\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nIn addition, the model assumes a gradual decrease in the operating margin to 11% in the terminal year. This condition is dictated by the desire to consider a pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is in line with the trend shown by the company.\nData byYCharts\nTo calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, I used thecurrent yield of China 10-Year Bondas a risk-free rate for the Chinese market (3.11%),equity risk premium(5.4%) and 3-yearrolling beta coefficient(0.6). For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1. To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 FY divided by the debt value for the same years. Here is the calculation:\nSource: Author\nAmong other parameters, the following should be highlighted:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX will remain at the five-year average.\nThe tax rate will amount to 27%.\n\nAnd, here's the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price of Alibaba's shares is ~$500, offering 130% upside. Please note that the considered scenario for the development of Alibaba cannot be called optimistic.\nPart 2: Technical analysis\nThis block should begin with the fact that from the very moment of the IPO in 2017, the company's share price continues to move along the upward support. The monthly chart demonstrates this very well:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSeparately, it is worth noting that the fall in the price of Alibaba shares, which we have been observing since the end of 2020, fully fits into this pattern.In other words, in a technical context, nothing extraordinary has happened here over the past eight months.\nNow, let's move on to the weekly chart and take a closer look at the last two years.\nThe last major full wave (growth and correction), which stands out in the dynamics of the company's share price, began in March 2020. And if we assume that in May 2021 the price of Alibaba's share reached its local minimum, then we get a pattern that is in very good agreement with theFibonacci retracement levels.In addition, the preservation of the macro uptrend is confirmed again becausethe end of the wave is higher than its beginning.\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nNow, let's move on to the daily chart and focus on the last eight months.\nThe fall in the company's share price, which began in November last year, clearly consists of three waves, indicated in the following chart by the letters A, B, C. (By the way, according to theElliott Wave Theory, the correction should consist of three waves.)\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn addition, for the last eight months, the price had been falling without breaking through the resistance line, which is marked in red on the previous chart. And only on June 24, the share price rose above this line. A day later, the stock rallied above the 50-day moving average.Agree, the technical picture is quite clear and positive.\nMoreover, I also want to draw your attention to the dynamics of theMACDindicator:\n\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nSince the beginning of the year, this indicator has been showing a steady upward trend. And now it is already in the positive zone.\nIn my opinion, all this indicates that the correction is most likely completed. Now a new, upward wave is emerging.\nAnd one more thing. Shares of Alibaba, much like the shares of most public companies, follow their long-term exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Here is this trend:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nNow, the company's stock price is below this trend by one standard deviation. But overall, the trend doesn't seem broken.And just a return of the price to the balanced state within the framework of this model would mean an increase of 35%.\nBottom line\nIn the context of investments, the key factors for success are patience and objectivity in the perception of the situation. In my opinion, this is even more important than deep theoretical knowledge.\nI do not and cannot have all the information regarding Alibaba Group. But I clearly see that in the context of technical analysis, the situation here is positive. Moreover, the price drop that we have been observing since November last year fits into the concept of a correction. And this correction is most likely already completed.\nFundamental analysis is no less unambiguous. The undervaluation of the company is at least 100%.\nIn talking about Alibaba, it is impossible to ignore the sovereign risks, which have especially increased in the last year. Much has already been written on this topic, in particular, I evenassessedthese risks through the calculation of the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). But any risk comes at a price. And in my opinion, it is the technical analysis that shows well that this risk is already taken into account in the price of the company.\nTherefore, there is no need to complicate things. You just need to be patient. The company's price is potentially prone to rise in price by at least 30% in the next six months.\nJust be patient!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140388968,"gmtCreate":1625629616454,"gmtModify":1703745273605,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Right management","listText":"Right management","text":"Right management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140388968","repostId":"1157988669","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157988669","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625623393,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157988669?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-07 10:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"何小鹏的第二个梦想","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157988669","media":"FN商业","summary":"何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上","content":"<blockquote>\n 何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742f2336829be615cea2b9a16f842a2e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。</p>\n<p>7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。</p>\n<p>小鹏汽车何小鹏，带着他的第二个梦想，朝新造车的深水区不断下潜。</p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p>2014年6月11日，阿里巴巴以43.5亿美元的现金加股权收购UC，<b>创下了国内移动互联网史上的并购记录。</b>成为阿里全资子公司后，UC被合并至阿里体系内。</p>\n<p>创办UC整整十年后，实现了财务自由的何小鹏，与俞永福一起加入阿里，这一年，马云是中国首富。</p>\n<p>进入阿里之后，何小鹏担任UC的CEO，一年后成为阿里移动事业群总裁，后又调任阿里游戏董事长，2017年担任土豆网总裁。</p>\n<p>但<b>何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。</b>或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。</p>\n<p>1999年，华南理工迎来毕业季，何小鹏和另外两位同学上了一辆大巴车，跟随导师去不同的企业面试，其中有两家国企，一家私企。</p>\n<p>大巴车停在这家名为“亚信科技”的私企门前，只有何小鹏一人下了车，在那个年代，很少有人愿意放弃国企的铁饭碗。但何小鹏的想法很不一样，他的愿望是40岁之前实现财务自由，然后退休。</p>\n<p><b>没有人能预测未来，命运眷顾幸运者的方式充满了戏剧性。</b></p>\n<p>亚信科技的创始人田朔宁，是后来鼎鼎有名的“互联网先生”，亚信则是“中国互联网的建筑师”，不过，这都是后话了。</p>\n<p>毕业之后，何小鹏正式进入亚信广州办事处，从软件测试工程师做起。</p>\n<p>在亚信工作期间，何小鹏认识了同系师兄梁捷。梁捷技术实力强，擅长写代码。两人在同一个研发团队，配合非常默契，共同开发了大容量邮件系统，成为公司的旗舰产品。</p>\n<p>2000年，亚信在纳斯达克上市，何小鹏入职满一年，有1500股，按照20美元的上市股价，相当于3万美元。他的领导给他股权协议书时说，“<b>你一来公司就有一套房了</b>。”</p>\n<p>但在2004年，何小鹏觉得每个月拿几千块的打工人无法实现财务自由，于是他辞职创业，跟随移动互联网刚刚兴起的潮流，与梁捷一起创办了UC。</p>\n<p>那时，中国的互联网行业刚刚迈入第一个十年，何小鹏和梁捷都是最早一批用手机“网上冲浪”的人，也最早发现了移动互联网的创业机会。</p>\n<p>创业初期，UC开发出了两款产品：UC Mail和UC Web。UC代表You Can，意思是“你（随时）可以收发邮件和访问互联网”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab609b1da7cd95d17eeb37c2d16ab21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，受限于移动互联网和硬件设备的普及程度，用户尚未养成用手机收发邮件的习惯，不过这款产品引起了丁磊的注意。<b>丁磊同样是做邮箱起家，对于市面上的同类产品非常敏感。</b></p>\n<p>好巧不巧，网易邮箱的开发人员之一陈磊华，是何小鹏的同学，由他牵线搭桥，双方见了面。</p>\n<p>酒桌上，丁磊听说UC的团队连办公室都租不起，先是借了80万，又把自己的办公室借给何小鹏办公。<b>这间办公室，再次为何小鹏打开了幸运的大门。</b></p>\n<p>UC的团队搬进丁磊的办公室，隔壁就是网易总编辑李学凌。李学凌后来辞职创业，就是YY的创始人。2006年，李学凌把何小鹏介绍给联想投资（现君联资本）副总裁俞永福，俞永福非常想投资UC，但项目因为一票之差没有通过。</p>\n<p>俞永福不甘心，他曾在UC考察过半年，非常看好这个项目。于是，投资决策会议结束的当晚，俞永福在北京街头的酒吧里见到了雷军，而雷军听完后只说了一句话：<b>“你去UC，我就投。”</b></p>\n<p>于是，俞永福辞掉了联想投资副总裁的职位，成为UC董事长和CEO，并很快为UC完成了400万元的融资，其中200万是雷军给的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9db67406720f587d94f553fb67c2cf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>再后来，雷军离开金山之后，也曾担任过UC董事长。他是何小鹏的湖北老乡，也是何小鹏两次创业的投资人。</p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p>时间回到2014年6月13日，UC刚被并入阿里第二天，大洋彼岸的蝴蝶扇动了翅膀，马斯克宣布特斯拉将采取“开源模式”，随后，造车新势力“蔚小理”相继成立。</p>\n<p>同一年，马斯克来到中国，向国内用户交付了首批特斯拉汽车，何小鹏是首批用户。他曾不止一次提到，坐上特斯拉之后，“<b>第一感受就是世界要变，汽车行业的变革来了。</b>”</p>\n<p>何小鹏在一篇自述中提到，“<b>2014年阿里整合UC之后，我提出在阿里体系造车，被无情否掉了。</b>我喜欢汽车，也相信智能汽车的未来，但自己造车可能面临更多责任、焦虑和压力，也许作为投资人更好。”</p>\n<p>那时候，<b>37岁的何小鹏提前三年完成了财务自由的目标</b>，但他首先想到的不是退休，而是财务自由后的痛苦、空虚和迷茫。</p>\n<p>于是，<b>何小鹏开始以投资人的身份发起并推动造车项目。</b></p>\n<p>这个造车团队中，有出身于清华大学汽车工程专业的夏珩，他曾在广汽传祺刚刚成立时加入，参与了传祺诞生的整个过程。</p>\n<p>打造“中国特斯拉”的想法让夏珩很兴奋，于是他毅然离开了广汽。</p>\n<p>创立小鹏之前，夏珩的身份是广汽新能源中心控制科科长，在广汽负责开展多款新能源汽车及智能汽车的控制系统开发工作。</p>\n<p>另一位小鹏汽车创始人何涛，是夏珩的学弟和同事。2010年毕业后进入广汽研究院工作，从事新能源汽车车辆控制相关系统的研发工作。由于技术能力较强，何涛随后又以项目经理的身份统筹广汽的无人驾驶项目推进。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55bb88fe0777b1f5dfe5d1bd9a2520c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\"><span>（何涛、何小鹏、夏珩）</span></p>\n<p>小鹏汽车的初创团队成立之后，距离何小鹏从投资人变成创始人，还差了<b>一通电话</b>。</p>\n<p>2017年2月16日，何小鹏的孩子出生，刚刚抱上几分钟，就接到一个电话。这个电话来自于被他调侃为“促使我创业的坏人”——GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋。</p>\n<p>“制造业升级，出行行业升级，已经大势所趋了。你要赶紧出来，再不出来这个Windows（窗口期）就没有了。”</p>\n<p>据何小鹏回忆，自从以投资人的身份组建造车团队后，就一直有再次创业与造车的想法，直到接到电话的那一刻，内心突然产生了一种强烈的情感：要做一些事情证明给儿子看。</p>\n<p><b>这通电话，正式激活了何小鹏的创业梦。</b></p>\n<p>半年后，在UC 13岁生日那天，何小鹏正式离开阿里。时任阿里文化娱乐集团董事长兼CEO俞永福在内部信中说，何小鹏将正式“荣退”，并“开启自己新的一段追梦之旅”。</p>\n<p>那一天，何小鹏发了一条朋友圈：创业一轮回，苦辣酸甜咸，归来仍是少年。</p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p>在何小鹏正式加入之前，小鹏汽车的造车计划已经开始推进，包括获得Pre-A轮融资和22亿元A轮融资、发布首款量产车Beta版、百亿级生产基地落户肇庆市区、获得销售资格等。</p>\n<p>何小鹏的加入，带来了创业经验和广阔的人脉。</p>\n<p>加入一年内，小鹏汽车完成了20亿融资，股东包括阿里、富士康、IDG等投资巨头。同时，何小鹏还挖来多位技术高管，补充团队人才。</p>\n<p>2017年10月12日，何小鹏加入小鹏汽车两个多月后，小鹏汽车首款量产车型正式下线，成为造车新势力中最先实现量产的。</p>\n<p>2018年1月10日，小鹏汽车G3在美国CES国际电子消费展上全球首发。在国内，小鹏汽车G3现身极客公园创新节展台。同月，小鹏汽车交付了首批39辆新车。</p>\n<p>2018年3月，小鹏汽车1.0量产车型获得中国造车新势力量产车落地的首张新能源号牌。</p>\n<p>然而，随之而来的是小鹏的降速，小鹏汽车首批产品并未上市销售，而是给员工在不同的场景继续驾驶测试。</p>\n<p>何小鹏态度很坚决：“消费者绝不应该是我们的首批用户。”</p>\n<p>直到2018年12月12日，小鹏汽车宣布G3正式上市，并同期启动交付，新车分为G3 520、G3 400两个型号，综合补贴后全国统一售价区间为14.38-19.68万元，首批卖出一万多辆。</p>\n<p>但这时，小鹏汽车在交付层面上已经被蔚来汽车赶超。</p>\n<p>进入2019年，小鹏汽车的发展计划中提到，前端要建成200座超级充电站，增幅为50%；中端小鹏汽车要将公司规模拓展至5000人，增幅为40%；后端肇庆工厂要开工并交付4万部新车，增幅超过7563%。</p>\n<p>于是，小鹏汽车开始搭建VIE结构，并随之传出了启动在美IPO的消息，但新能源市场的剧变来得猝不及防。</p>\n<p>2019年3月，有关部门下发《关于进一步完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知》，到6月底，新能源车国补减半、地补直接消失。</p>\n<p>随后，新能源汽车市场初次遇冷。</p>\n<p>“目前，小鹏汽车对于IPO的时间和地点都没有计划表。”3月28日，何小鹏对外宣布。</p>\n<p>除了市场方面的波动和尚未列进计划的IPO，小鹏汽车也开始遭遇用户的质疑。</p>\n<p>2019年7月，小鹏汽车推出G3 2020款，但很快引发小鹏汽车老车主的强烈不满。对比2019款G3，新款车型不仅续航能力提升，且价格还低于老款。</p>\n<p>7月13日，小鹏汽车遭遇了最大的危机，一大波车主跑到小鹏汽车总部，各个城市的服务中心，拉起横幅维权，控诉小鹏汽车涉嫌消费欺诈。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42a12e066dfe967e8bf65b6e3916e2b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>无奈之下，小鹏汽车给出补偿方案：老车主在3年之内增换购小鹏汽车任何一款车型时，在享受拟购买新车当期所有促销政策权益的基础上，额外享受1万元专属补贴权益。</p>\n<p>一个多月后，何小鹏在接受媒体采访时发出感叹，“<b>在汽车行业里面除了体力累、脑力累，还有一个心累</b>”。用他的话说，自己是从互联网圈的“舒适区”进入了汽车圈“艰苦区”。</p>\n<p>实际上，从2018年到2020年中旬，何小鹏多次流露负面情绪。</p>\n<p>他曾经对于交付充满痛苦：“以前我认为研发和制造很难，交付不是很难，但现在发现交付的难度远远比造出几百台要高。为了交付，需要有预定和销售环节，内部要建一个巨大的CRM（客户关系管理系统），数十个信息化系统。为了销售，在全国要开四十多个公司，因为每一个地方要进行交付，要开发票。我们在每个地方都要有充电站，售后怎么办，维修怎么办……<b>现在的痛苦我觉得会持续两年，持续到2020年。</b>”</p>\n<p>到了2020年，痛苦仍然持续。这一年6月，何小鹏在微博发出一张合照，照片中何小鹏、李斌、李想相依而坐，李斌的双手亲密地搭在旁边两人的肩上。何小鹏配文说：“三个苦逼，在忆苦思变......”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8d8caa7b954731b82901887f5148db\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>好在一时的“艰苦”并不会打倒一个行业，尤其是新能源汽车这种注定会上升的行业。</p>\n<p>2020年7月，小鹏汽车又发布了第二款量产车型P7智能轿跑。P7对标国产特斯拉Model 3，续航里程达到了706公里，补贴后售价23万元左右。</p>\n<p>造车新势力最大的“难”在于自建工厂，不过当初投资20亿建造的肇庆工厂已经开始收获成果，P7就是由肇庆工厂生产的。</p>\n<p>每个月的交付数量督促着何小鹏不断前进，但在这个“烧钱”成为共识的战场上，融资问题一直困扰着圈内的各个玩家。</p>\n<p>由于量产的需求，造车对于资金的要求极高，200亿只是入行的门槛。何小鹏自己先后投入的3亿美金像是毛毛雨，小鹏汽车累计10轮融资超过180亿元，投资方除了老朋友阿里巴巴和小米集团，还有红杉、高瓴、富士康和IDG资本。</p>\n<p>在这个时候，蔚来汽车已经成为造车三剑客中领跑的一方，于2018年9月12日在美国纽交所上市，募集了10亿美元；李想的理想汽车紧随其后，于2020年7月30日在美国纳斯达克上市，募集10.5亿美元。</p>\n<p>而小鹏汽车8月27日登陆美国纽交所，募集资金15亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p>小鹏汽车即将登陆港股，完成“双重主要上市”。</p>\n<p>由于相距纽交所挂牌上市时间不满一年，与京东、百度、哔哩哔哩等一批赴港二次上市的中概股不同，小鹏汽车无法满足港交所对于“两个会计年度”的要求，只能选择“双重一级市场”的方式赴港募资。</p>\n<p>与此同时，蔚来和理想也透露出赴香港上市的意愿。</p>\n<p><b>迫切的上市需求折射出新能源汽车行业的发展现状</b>：对于资金的渴求和资本市场的认可相得益彰；而相约回港上市，也从侧面反映了新能源汽车核心市场的悄然转变。</p>\n<p><b>在资本市场上，新能源汽车行业的想象空间持续滋养着新势力的股价。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉成为市值最高的车企，蔚小理的市值也超过了很多百年车企。但从销量规模来看，双方的差距仍大。</p>\n<p>今年刚进入7月，造车新势力们便迫不及待地亮出6月销量成绩单。其中，蔚来以8083辆交付量继续领跑，理想以7713辆的成绩成为第二，小鹏交付6565辆，位列第三。</p>\n<p>2021年以来，新能源汽车行业的规模平稳扩大，交付量最高的蔚来正在冲击10万辆的年销量，理想、小鹏则有机会冲击8万辆年销量。</p>\n<p>不过，<b>以千为单位的月交付量，放在百万级出货量的汽车市场上仍然显得小众</b>，这是产能所造成的限制，也是想象力拓展的空间。</p>\n<p>得益于出货量的提升，小鹏汽车的营收与毛利同步增长，并开始缩小与同行的距离。其招股书显示，小鹏汽车2021年第一季度共实现营收29.51亿人民币，较2020年4.12亿人民币同比增长616.1%，增速层面超过了481.8%的蔚来汽车和319.8%的理想汽车，不过同期蔚来汽车营收79.8亿人民币，理想汽车营收35.8亿人民币。</p>\n<p>此外，小鹏汽车开始进入产能爬坡阶段。招股书显示，小鹏汽车生产线利用率已经接近40%，其中海马工厂产能利用率由2018年的6.4%已提升至40.6%，肇庆新工厂的产能利用率也达到38.5%，接近中国乘用车40%的平均产能利用率。</p>\n<p><b>不过，小鹏汽车依然没有摆脱亏损困境。</b>小鹏在招股书中预警风险，企业目前仍在产生亏损和负经营现金流，这一情况可能还会持续一段时间。</p>\n<p>财报显示，过去三年小鹏已累计亏损超78亿元。2021年1-3月，小鹏净亏损为7.866亿元，相比去年同期6.498亿元进一步扩大，亏损的主要原因是高额投入的研发费用、营销推广和广告费用，其中，研发费用达到5.351 亿元。</p>\n<p><b>造车新势力三巨头中，蔚来汽车以品牌定位和服务体系领先，理想汽车喜欢讲述增程技术背后的电量焦虑故事，而小鹏汽车为自己打造的护城河则是“智能”。</b></p>\n<p>在招股书中，小鹏汽车也表示其最关键的核心竞争力是智能，即所有软件和核心硬件都进行自主研发。不同于其他主机厂，小鹏汽车自主设计和开发了全栈式的自动驾驶技术和操作系统，并表示是第一家自主研发出自动驾驶软件，并将其实现商业化应用的造车新势力公司。</p>\n<p>以技术为核，是由小鹏汽车创始团队的基因决定的，除了两位联合创始人的技术出身，还有占比近40%的研发岗位。招股书提到，截止2021年3月31日，小鹏汽车全球共有员工6132人，其中39.8%是研发岗，包括汽车设计与工程、自动驾驶和智能操作系统三大类别。</p>\n<p>而在“双重主要上市”之后，配合新能源市场讲不完的故事，和以自建工厂为轴所实现的研发、设计、生产、销售服务的完整闭环，资金已经不再是最大的难题。</p>\n<p>下一个坎，在于商业模式层面的自我造血，技术层面的智能研发，以及手机厂商们的凶猛入侵。</p>\n<p><b>05</b></p>\n<p>“<b>我欢迎更多人进来，这五年还是有一些机会，2025年以后就是一个从春秋到战国的变革。</b>”在上海车展上，何小鹏曾如此描述新能源汽车市场的竞争。</p>\n<p>当初为何小鹏解决燃眉之急的雷军，已经手持百亿美元站在了新造车的风口上。十年一个轮回，新旧故事交替上演。</p>\n<p>而连续创业者何小鹏，虽然提前三年完成了财富自由的梦想，但依然下定决心进入了新造车的浑水之中。一年之内两次上市，小鹏汽车的身份在探路者、追赶者与领先者之间完成了转换。</p>","source":"lsy1590629264667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>何小鹏的第二个梦想</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n何小鹏的第二个梦想\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 10:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw><strong>FN商业</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。\n7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。\n小鹏汽车...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d86c8942d70bb8f5f19dc3d70ace2d9","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/V2HHylVXC8SZXT7jorxbSw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157988669","content_text":"何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n\n\n造车新势力中，小鹏最晚登陆美股。然而在纽交所上市不满一年，它已完成“双重主要上市”。\n7月7日，小鹏汽车登陆港交所，开盘涨1.82%，发行价165港元，最高股价168港元，总市值2842亿港元。小鹏抢跑“港股智能电动车第一股”，很可能掀起新造车企业回港上市的潮流。\n小鹏汽车何小鹏，带着他的第二个梦想，朝新造车的深水区不断下潜。\n01\n2014年6月11日，阿里巴巴以43.5亿美元的现金加股权收购UC，创下了国内移动互联网史上的并购记录。成为阿里全资子公司后，UC被合并至阿里体系内。\n创办UC整整十年后，实现了财务自由的何小鹏，与俞永福一起加入阿里，这一年，马云是中国首富。\n进入阿里之后，何小鹏担任UC的CEO，一年后成为阿里移动事业群总裁，后又调任阿里游戏董事长，2017年担任土豆网总裁。\n但何小鹏的内心深处仍然埋藏着创业梦，等待被激活。或许他自己都没有察觉，这颗种子早在他独自走下大巴车的时候就已经埋下了。\n1999年，华南理工迎来毕业季，何小鹏和另外两位同学上了一辆大巴车，跟随导师去不同的企业面试，其中有两家国企，一家私企。\n大巴车停在这家名为“亚信科技”的私企门前，只有何小鹏一人下了车，在那个年代，很少有人愿意放弃国企的铁饭碗。但何小鹏的想法很不一样，他的愿望是40岁之前实现财务自由，然后退休。\n没有人能预测未来，命运眷顾幸运者的方式充满了戏剧性。\n亚信科技的创始人田朔宁，是后来鼎鼎有名的“互联网先生”，亚信则是“中国互联网的建筑师”，不过，这都是后话了。\n毕业之后，何小鹏正式进入亚信广州办事处，从软件测试工程师做起。\n在亚信工作期间，何小鹏认识了同系师兄梁捷。梁捷技术实力强，擅长写代码。两人在同一个研发团队，配合非常默契，共同开发了大容量邮件系统，成为公司的旗舰产品。\n2000年，亚信在纳斯达克上市，何小鹏入职满一年，有1500股，按照20美元的上市股价，相当于3万美元。他的领导给他股权协议书时说，“你一来公司就有一套房了。”\n但在2004年，何小鹏觉得每个月拿几千块的打工人无法实现财务自由，于是他辞职创业，跟随移动互联网刚刚兴起的潮流，与梁捷一起创办了UC。\n那时，中国的互联网行业刚刚迈入第一个十年，何小鹏和梁捷都是最早一批用手机“网上冲浪”的人，也最早发现了移动互联网的创业机会。\n创业初期，UC开发出了两款产品：UC Mail和UC Web。UC代表You Can，意思是“你（随时）可以收发邮件和访问互联网”。\n\n但是，受限于移动互联网和硬件设备的普及程度，用户尚未养成用手机收发邮件的习惯，不过这款产品引起了丁磊的注意。丁磊同样是做邮箱起家，对于市面上的同类产品非常敏感。\n好巧不巧，网易邮箱的开发人员之一陈磊华，是何小鹏的同学，由他牵线搭桥，双方见了面。\n酒桌上，丁磊听说UC的团队连办公室都租不起，先是借了80万，又把自己的办公室借给何小鹏办公。这间办公室，再次为何小鹏打开了幸运的大门。\nUC的团队搬进丁磊的办公室，隔壁就是网易总编辑李学凌。李学凌后来辞职创业，就是YY的创始人。2006年，李学凌把何小鹏介绍给联想投资（现君联资本）副总裁俞永福，俞永福非常想投资UC，但项目因为一票之差没有通过。\n俞永福不甘心，他曾在UC考察过半年，非常看好这个项目。于是，投资决策会议结束的当晚，俞永福在北京街头的酒吧里见到了雷军，而雷军听完后只说了一句话：“你去UC，我就投。”\n于是，俞永福辞掉了联想投资副总裁的职位，成为UC董事长和CEO，并很快为UC完成了400万元的融资，其中200万是雷军给的。\n\n再后来，雷军离开金山之后，也曾担任过UC董事长。他是何小鹏的湖北老乡，也是何小鹏两次创业的投资人。\n02\n时间回到2014年6月13日，UC刚被并入阿里第二天，大洋彼岸的蝴蝶扇动了翅膀，马斯克宣布特斯拉将采取“开源模式”，随后，造车新势力“蔚小理”相继成立。\n同一年，马斯克来到中国，向国内用户交付了首批特斯拉汽车，何小鹏是首批用户。他曾不止一次提到，坐上特斯拉之后，“第一感受就是世界要变，汽车行业的变革来了。”\n何小鹏在一篇自述中提到，“2014年阿里整合UC之后，我提出在阿里体系造车，被无情否掉了。我喜欢汽车，也相信智能汽车的未来，但自己造车可能面临更多责任、焦虑和压力，也许作为投资人更好。”\n那时候，37岁的何小鹏提前三年完成了财务自由的目标，但他首先想到的不是退休，而是财务自由后的痛苦、空虚和迷茫。\n于是，何小鹏开始以投资人的身份发起并推动造车项目。\n这个造车团队中，有出身于清华大学汽车工程专业的夏珩，他曾在广汽传祺刚刚成立时加入，参与了传祺诞生的整个过程。\n打造“中国特斯拉”的想法让夏珩很兴奋，于是他毅然离开了广汽。\n创立小鹏之前，夏珩的身份是广汽新能源中心控制科科长，在广汽负责开展多款新能源汽车及智能汽车的控制系统开发工作。\n另一位小鹏汽车创始人何涛，是夏珩的学弟和同事。2010年毕业后进入广汽研究院工作，从事新能源汽车车辆控制相关系统的研发工作。由于技术能力较强，何涛随后又以项目经理的身份统筹广汽的无人驾驶项目推进。\n（何涛、何小鹏、夏珩）\n小鹏汽车的初创团队成立之后，距离何小鹏从投资人变成创始人，还差了一通电话。\n2017年2月16日，何小鹏的孩子出生，刚刚抱上几分钟，就接到一个电话。这个电话来自于被他调侃为“促使我创业的坏人”——GGV纪源资本管理合伙人符绩勋。\n“制造业升级，出行行业升级，已经大势所趋了。你要赶紧出来，再不出来这个Windows（窗口期）就没有了。”\n据何小鹏回忆，自从以投资人的身份组建造车团队后，就一直有再次创业与造车的想法，直到接到电话的那一刻，内心突然产生了一种强烈的情感：要做一些事情证明给儿子看。\n这通电话，正式激活了何小鹏的创业梦。\n半年后，在UC 13岁生日那天，何小鹏正式离开阿里。时任阿里文化娱乐集团董事长兼CEO俞永福在内部信中说，何小鹏将正式“荣退”，并“开启自己新的一段追梦之旅”。\n那一天，何小鹏发了一条朋友圈：创业一轮回，苦辣酸甜咸，归来仍是少年。\n03\n在何小鹏正式加入之前，小鹏汽车的造车计划已经开始推进，包括获得Pre-A轮融资和22亿元A轮融资、发布首款量产车Beta版、百亿级生产基地落户肇庆市区、获得销售资格等。\n何小鹏的加入，带来了创业经验和广阔的人脉。\n加入一年内，小鹏汽车完成了20亿融资，股东包括阿里、富士康、IDG等投资巨头。同时，何小鹏还挖来多位技术高管，补充团队人才。\n2017年10月12日，何小鹏加入小鹏汽车两个多月后，小鹏汽车首款量产车型正式下线，成为造车新势力中最先实现量产的。\n2018年1月10日，小鹏汽车G3在美国CES国际电子消费展上全球首发。在国内，小鹏汽车G3现身极客公园创新节展台。同月，小鹏汽车交付了首批39辆新车。\n2018年3月，小鹏汽车1.0量产车型获得中国造车新势力量产车落地的首张新能源号牌。\n然而，随之而来的是小鹏的降速，小鹏汽车首批产品并未上市销售，而是给员工在不同的场景继续驾驶测试。\n何小鹏态度很坚决：“消费者绝不应该是我们的首批用户。”\n直到2018年12月12日，小鹏汽车宣布G3正式上市，并同期启动交付，新车分为G3 520、G3 400两个型号，综合补贴后全国统一售价区间为14.38-19.68万元，首批卖出一万多辆。\n但这时，小鹏汽车在交付层面上已经被蔚来汽车赶超。\n进入2019年，小鹏汽车的发展计划中提到，前端要建成200座超级充电站，增幅为50%；中端小鹏汽车要将公司规模拓展至5000人，增幅为40%；后端肇庆工厂要开工并交付4万部新车，增幅超过7563%。\n于是，小鹏汽车开始搭建VIE结构，并随之传出了启动在美IPO的消息，但新能源市场的剧变来得猝不及防。\n2019年3月，有关部门下发《关于进一步完善新能源汽车推广应用财政补贴政策的通知》，到6月底，新能源车国补减半、地补直接消失。\n随后，新能源汽车市场初次遇冷。\n“目前，小鹏汽车对于IPO的时间和地点都没有计划表。”3月28日，何小鹏对外宣布。\n除了市场方面的波动和尚未列进计划的IPO，小鹏汽车也开始遭遇用户的质疑。\n2019年7月，小鹏汽车推出G3 2020款，但很快引发小鹏汽车老车主的强烈不满。对比2019款G3，新款车型不仅续航能力提升，且价格还低于老款。\n7月13日，小鹏汽车遭遇了最大的危机，一大波车主跑到小鹏汽车总部，各个城市的服务中心，拉起横幅维权，控诉小鹏汽车涉嫌消费欺诈。\n\n无奈之下，小鹏汽车给出补偿方案：老车主在3年之内增换购小鹏汽车任何一款车型时，在享受拟购买新车当期所有促销政策权益的基础上，额外享受1万元专属补贴权益。\n一个多月后，何小鹏在接受媒体采访时发出感叹，“在汽车行业里面除了体力累、脑力累，还有一个心累”。用他的话说，自己是从互联网圈的“舒适区”进入了汽车圈“艰苦区”。\n实际上，从2018年到2020年中旬，何小鹏多次流露负面情绪。\n他曾经对于交付充满痛苦：“以前我认为研发和制造很难，交付不是很难，但现在发现交付的难度远远比造出几百台要高。为了交付，需要有预定和销售环节，内部要建一个巨大的CRM（客户关系管理系统），数十个信息化系统。为了销售，在全国要开四十多个公司，因为每一个地方要进行交付，要开发票。我们在每个地方都要有充电站，售后怎么办，维修怎么办……现在的痛苦我觉得会持续两年，持续到2020年。”\n到了2020年，痛苦仍然持续。这一年6月，何小鹏在微博发出一张合照，照片中何小鹏、李斌、李想相依而坐，李斌的双手亲密地搭在旁边两人的肩上。何小鹏配文说：“三个苦逼，在忆苦思变......”\n\n好在一时的“艰苦”并不会打倒一个行业，尤其是新能源汽车这种注定会上升的行业。\n2020年7月，小鹏汽车又发布了第二款量产车型P7智能轿跑。P7对标国产特斯拉Model 3，续航里程达到了706公里，补贴后售价23万元左右。\n造车新势力最大的“难”在于自建工厂，不过当初投资20亿建造的肇庆工厂已经开始收获成果，P7就是由肇庆工厂生产的。\n每个月的交付数量督促着何小鹏不断前进，但在这个“烧钱”成为共识的战场上，融资问题一直困扰着圈内的各个玩家。\n由于量产的需求，造车对于资金的要求极高，200亿只是入行的门槛。何小鹏自己先后投入的3亿美金像是毛毛雨，小鹏汽车累计10轮融资超过180亿元，投资方除了老朋友阿里巴巴和小米集团，还有红杉、高瓴、富士康和IDG资本。\n在这个时候，蔚来汽车已经成为造车三剑客中领跑的一方，于2018年9月12日在美国纽交所上市，募集了10亿美元；李想的理想汽车紧随其后，于2020年7月30日在美国纳斯达克上市，募集10.5亿美元。\n而小鹏汽车8月27日登陆美国纽交所，募集资金15亿美元。\n04\n小鹏汽车即将登陆港股，完成“双重主要上市”。\n由于相距纽交所挂牌上市时间不满一年，与京东、百度、哔哩哔哩等一批赴港二次上市的中概股不同，小鹏汽车无法满足港交所对于“两个会计年度”的要求，只能选择“双重一级市场”的方式赴港募资。\n与此同时，蔚来和理想也透露出赴香港上市的意愿。\n迫切的上市需求折射出新能源汽车行业的发展现状：对于资金的渴求和资本市场的认可相得益彰；而相约回港上市，也从侧面反映了新能源汽车核心市场的悄然转变。\n在资本市场上，新能源汽车行业的想象空间持续滋养着新势力的股价。\n特斯拉成为市值最高的车企，蔚小理的市值也超过了很多百年车企。但从销量规模来看，双方的差距仍大。\n今年刚进入7月，造车新势力们便迫不及待地亮出6月销量成绩单。其中，蔚来以8083辆交付量继续领跑，理想以7713辆的成绩成为第二，小鹏交付6565辆，位列第三。\n2021年以来，新能源汽车行业的规模平稳扩大，交付量最高的蔚来正在冲击10万辆的年销量，理想、小鹏则有机会冲击8万辆年销量。\n不过，以千为单位的月交付量，放在百万级出货量的汽车市场上仍然显得小众，这是产能所造成的限制，也是想象力拓展的空间。\n得益于出货量的提升，小鹏汽车的营收与毛利同步增长，并开始缩小与同行的距离。其招股书显示，小鹏汽车2021年第一季度共实现营收29.51亿人民币，较2020年4.12亿人民币同比增长616.1%，增速层面超过了481.8%的蔚来汽车和319.8%的理想汽车，不过同期蔚来汽车营收79.8亿人民币，理想汽车营收35.8亿人民币。\n此外，小鹏汽车开始进入产能爬坡阶段。招股书显示，小鹏汽车生产线利用率已经接近40%，其中海马工厂产能利用率由2018年的6.4%已提升至40.6%，肇庆新工厂的产能利用率也达到38.5%，接近中国乘用车40%的平均产能利用率。\n不过，小鹏汽车依然没有摆脱亏损困境。小鹏在招股书中预警风险，企业目前仍在产生亏损和负经营现金流，这一情况可能还会持续一段时间。\n财报显示，过去三年小鹏已累计亏损超78亿元。2021年1-3月，小鹏净亏损为7.866亿元，相比去年同期6.498亿元进一步扩大，亏损的主要原因是高额投入的研发费用、营销推广和广告费用，其中，研发费用达到5.351 亿元。\n造车新势力三巨头中，蔚来汽车以品牌定位和服务体系领先，理想汽车喜欢讲述增程技术背后的电量焦虑故事，而小鹏汽车为自己打造的护城河则是“智能”。\n在招股书中，小鹏汽车也表示其最关键的核心竞争力是智能，即所有软件和核心硬件都进行自主研发。不同于其他主机厂，小鹏汽车自主设计和开发了全栈式的自动驾驶技术和操作系统，并表示是第一家自主研发出自动驾驶软件，并将其实现商业化应用的造车新势力公司。\n以技术为核，是由小鹏汽车创始团队的基因决定的，除了两位联合创始人的技术出身，还有占比近40%的研发岗位。招股书提到，截止2021年3月31日，小鹏汽车全球共有员工6132人，其中39.8%是研发岗，包括汽车设计与工程、自动驾驶和智能操作系统三大类别。\n而在“双重主要上市”之后，配合新能源市场讲不完的故事，和以自建工厂为轴所实现的研发、设计、生产、销售服务的完整闭环，资金已经不再是最大的难题。\n下一个坎，在于商业模式层面的自我造血，技术层面的智能研发，以及手机厂商们的凶猛入侵。\n05\n“我欢迎更多人进来，这五年还是有一些机会，2025年以后就是一个从春秋到战国的变革。”在上海车展上，何小鹏曾如此描述新能源汽车市场的竞争。\n当初为何小鹏解决燃眉之急的雷军，已经手持百亿美元站在了新造车的风口上。十年一个轮回，新旧故事交替上演。\n而连续创业者何小鹏，虽然提前三年完成了财富自由的梦想，但依然下定决心进入了新造车的浑水之中。一年之内两次上市，小鹏汽车的身份在探路者、追赶者与领先者之间完成了转换。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151725833,"gmtCreate":1625108336922,"gmtModify":1703736324497,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strong buy?","listText":"Strong buy?","text":"Strong buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151725833","repostId":"1176914673","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159070704,"gmtCreate":1624933283308,"gmtModify":1703848268959,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","listText":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","text":"The chart only show 3% that is higher PS and lower revenue growth. Where to find the 90%?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159070704","repostId":"1105982179","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105982179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624889210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105982179?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Mass Exodus","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105982179","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir conti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Short interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.</li>\n <li>Even though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.</li>\n <li>The stock could rally further.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16279727ada0c46eb4d43744da02d1cc\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Palantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p>\n<p><b>The Data</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.</p>\n<p>In Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95e4623fda1d9079a2699b57d4ee0f42\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Next, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091feec9aa17f821d01f34a7b46bb2bb\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"506\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.</p>\n<p>But this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?</p>\n<p><b>Cautious for Good Reason</b></p>\n<p>As I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.</p>\n<p>But don't take my word for it.</p>\n<p>The community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74bccdf90ceb880c1a3edddad8743a1e\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>There's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.</p>\n<p>Lastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.</p>\n<p>So, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb171f61438817b747d6a50fff8133\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: Business Quant.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>I'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.</p>\n<p>Having said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.</p>\n<p>This active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Mass Exodus</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Mass Exodus\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436907-palantir-the-mass-exodus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105982179","content_text":"Summary\n\nShort interest in Palantir dropped by 23.8% in the latest cycle.\nEven though Palantir continues to be surrounded by bearish narratives, market participants don't seem to be comfortable with shorting the stock.\nThe stock could rally further.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nPalantir's (PLTR) shares are up 20% in the last month alone but the rally could still continue. Latest data reveals that short interest in Palantir declined by 23.8% in the latest cycle alone. This suggests that a broad swath of market participants isn't buying into the bearish narratives surrounding the company, perceive its stock to be fairly valued and perhaps even anticipate it to rally going forward. This development should come across as an encouraging sign for the company's long-side investors. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nThe Data\nI'd like to start by explaining the term \"short interest\" for the uninitiated. It's essentially the total number of short positions that are open against any given stock. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that traders grew bearish on the concerned company, and actively initiated short positions against it. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that traders actively wound up their short positions either perhaps because they anticipate the stock to bottom out and/or rally going forward. So, the short interest is a useful tool to gauge the Street's ever-evolving market sentiment.\nIn Palantir's case, its short interest at the end of the latest data cycle stood at 52.3 million, sharply down by 23.8% on a sequential basis. Although Palantir's short interest figure isn't at its all-time low yet, the pace of its recent decline, however, is certainly one of the fastest in the company's brief history since its direct listing last year. For the record, Palantir has over 1.8 billion shares outstanding which means that about 2.8% of its entire share total had been shorted. Also, the short interest data is for the cycle spanning from early June to mid-June, and the data wasreleasedon Thursday.\n\nNext, I wanted to confirm if other software application companies also registered a sharp reduction in their short interest figures, or was Palantir an anomaly in its peer group. So, to get a broader perspective on its industry, I pulled the short interest figures for about 100 software application stocks listed in the US. Interestingly, 55% of these stocks registered a net reduction in their short interest figures, of varying magnitudes of course, which points to an industry-wide short unwinding.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com, Wsj.com)\nMoreover, the median short interest decline was 1.9%, whereas Palantir's short interest declined by a far more significant 23.8% during the same data cycle. In fact, there were just 6 other stocks in our study group, which saw their short interest decline in excess of 23.8%. This conclusively shows that market participants were far too active with unwinding their short positions in Palantir.\nBut this leads us to an important question - why are market participants so cautious with shorting Palantir in the first place?\nCautious for Good Reason\nAs I've explained in my prior articles, Palantir has several initiatives at play which could collectively catapult its growth in 2021-22. These initiatives include itstransitionto a customer-friendly payment model to boost commercial sales, offeringfree trialsto major companies to expand its sales funnel and expanding itssales teamto revamp its outbound marketing function. We won't be discussing the same points again to avoid being repetitive, but the takeaway here is that since Palantir is undertaking several growth initiatives, it makes for a risky short bet for the time being at least.\nBut don't take my word for it.\nThe community of professional analysts is realizing Palantir's growth potential and raising their revenue estimates for its current fiscal year. They've raised their FY21 revenue estimates by about 5% so far since mid-January and there's no telling how many of such upward revenue revisions are still in store for the remainder of Palantir's FY21. This bullish uncertainty presents an unfavorable risk-reward ratio for short-side market participants and explains why short interest in Palantir continues to decline.\n\nThere's another point to consider here, that nobody seems to be talking about. Palantir has won several COVID-19 tracking-related contracts (such ashere,here,here,hereandhere) over the last 12 - 15 months as government agencies across the globe grappled to control the spread and tried to better manage their resources. With COVID-19 said to be making a fierce comeback with thedelta variant, I contend that Palantir could experience a similar order windfall this year, from proactive government agencies, which could boost the company's government sales along the way.\nLastly, several commenters argue that Palantir's shares are trading at a premium and are due for a sharp correction. Its shares are trading at about 34-times trailing twelve-month sales so it's understandable why many might think that the stock is overvalued. But I believe the problem with this approach is that we're not factoring in industry-wide trading multiples or Palantir's revenue growth rate, compared to its peers.\nSo, to put things in perspective, I compiled the revenue growth rates and price-to-sales (or P/S) multiples for over 320 software infrastructure and software application stocks that are currently listed on US exchanges. Next, I benchmarked these industry groups based on Palantir's revenue growth rate and its P/S multiple. As it turns out, over 90% of Palantir's peers have a slower revenue growth and/or are trading at higher trading multiples. This suggests that Palantir's higher pace of growth justifies its price premium and that the bearish concerns regarding its valuations, are exaggerated.\n(Source: Business Quant.com)\nFinal Thoughts\nI'd like to point to readers that fluctuations in short interest figures don't always impact the underlying stock prices. This data is based on short positions that were open at a prior cut-off date and investors with a long-term time horizon should, at best, use it to corroborate their bull or bear thesis.\nHaving said that, if the bearish narratives surrounding Palantir held any merit, or posed a legitimate risk to its share price, a broad swath of market participants would've actively shorted the stock to profit off of this near-certain eventuality. But that didn't happen and its short interest declined instead, that too by a significant amount.\nThis active short unwinding indicates that market participants are uncomfortable in shorting the stock at current levels. This should come across as a reassuring sign for the company's long-side shareholders. The stock seems to be fairly valued and has the potential to rally further. Good Luck!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366341851,"gmtCreate":1614399904173,"gmtModify":1704771567968,"author":{"id":"3573119962682037","authorId":"3573119962682037","name":"FreedomKim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4300b07a250f193db050a2a7c7e36dfd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573119962682037","authorIdStr":"3573119962682037"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fair value now","listText":"Fair value now","text":"Fair value now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366341851","repostId":"2114091633","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2114091633","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1614356700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2114091633?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-27 00:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2114091633","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-27 00:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2114091633","content_text":"MW Palantir stock has tumbled 18.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since going public in Sept.\n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  February 26, 2021 11:25 ET (16:25 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}