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2021-07-25

Hmmm

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks

2021-07-13

Yes

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2021-07-13

Nope

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2021-07-16

????

2021-07-16

$Air Transport(ATSG)$?

2021-07-13

Good

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2021-07-13

Good

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2021-07-13

Good

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2021-07-13

Buy

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147733956,"gmtCreate":1626390713775,"gmtModify":1703759069100,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f2337928411bdf06e2b0c2c2285dda","width":"750","height":"2390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147733956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147730108,"gmtCreate":1626390616504,"gmtModify":1703759066678,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATSG\">$Air Transport(ATSG)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATSG\">$Air Transport(ATSG)$</a>?","text":"$Air Transport(ATSG)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78450c92a02d5cadc632c393402b090f","width":"750","height":"1224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147730108","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142268000,"gmtCreate":1626153763500,"gmtModify":1703754428628,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142268000","repostId":"1122197825","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142261223,"gmtCreate":1626153720162,"gmtModify":1703754428141,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142261223","repostId":"1171355403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171355403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626140399,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171355403?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: An Undervalued Empire With 45%+ Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171355403","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba has top-ranking global business units from e-commerce marketplaces to cloud platforms.I break it down by business units, show its strength and true value, and discuss its delisting risks.Alibaba Group Holding Limitedstock total return has been ~-3% since Jan 2020, during which time not only its US Peer Amazon  was up 101%, its Latin American peer MercadoLibre  was up 172%, even the S&P 500 index was up 39%.Alibaba is the largest eCommerce operation in the world. It has over 1B annual act","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba has top-ranking global business units from e-commerce marketplaces to cloud platforms.</li>\n <li>Its stock price has been under pressure for over a year by perceived political/delisting risk and its recent Ant Financial IPO cancellation.</li>\n <li>I break it down by business units, show its strength and true value, and discuss its delisting risks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Price action deviates from Fundamentals</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited(NYSE:BABA)stock total return has been ~-3% since Jan 2020, during which time not only its US Peer Amazon (AMZN) was up 101%, its Latin American peer MercadoLibre (MELI) was up 172%, even the S&amp;P 500 index was up 39%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699af948598c5dab55d7ba41931d1944\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n<p>Alibaba is the largest eCommerce operation in the world. It has over 1B annual active consumers, over 1T GMV (gross merchandise volume) in FY21, both numbers larger than any other e-commerce company in the world, Amazon included.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, Alibaba's core commerce and cloud computing recorded 42% and 50% YoY growth FY21. These are jaw-dropping growth numbers, especially at Alibaba's massive scale.</p>\n<p>Also worth noting, while its revenue grows at an impressive rate, its Ebitda profit margin continues to show 17% YoY improvement, further demonstrate its superior unit economics, and effective cost control as it scales up.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69f23fbc36af93ba24ecf933c2b4bbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: 4Q21 AlibabaInvestor presentation</p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>My conservative model values Alibaba between $773B ($299/share) to $967B ($373/share). It offers an upside potential between 45% and 81% to its closing price of $206/share on 7/9/21.</p>\n<p>The table below provides a summary view of my Sum-of-all-parts valuation, and I discuss them in detail in later sections.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c3b44cb0364f61901a479a1f6948afd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Excel sheet prepared by Author</i></p>\n<p><b>Valuation By Segments</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has four business segments and two investment segments, they are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Core Commerce: Taobao, TMall, Alibaba, AliExpress, Lazada, ele.me, etc.</li>\n <li>Cloud Computing: Alibaba Cloud</li>\n <li>Digital Media: Youku, Ali Sports, AliGame, etc.</li>\n <li>Innovative Initiatives: gmap, AliOS, etc</li>\n <li>Ant Group</li>\n <li>Other strategic Investments: DiDi, bilibili, etc</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Let us dive into them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033f24b75c357021d3d1177cc2e3bbf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"140\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Alibaba Investor Day2020</p>\n<p><b>1. Core Commerce</b></p>\n<p><b>Marketplace-based core commerce</b>includes Taobao, TMall, 1688.com, alibaba.com, AliExpress, TMall Market. These are mature and profit-generating marketplaces with steady growth.</p>\n<p>These are the crown jewels of Alibaba's empire. It composes of No.1 Online retail, No.1 online wholesale, and No 1 B2C Export marketplace in China.</p>\n<p>FY21 adj Ebitda for marketplace-based core commerce is $35B.</p>\n<p>I use a moderate 15x - 20x Ev/Ebitda ratio (e.g. Amazon is 30x+ Ev/Ebitda), values its marketplace-based core commerce between 570B and 700B.</p>\n<p><b>Lazada:</b>international retail marketplace in SEA</p>\n<p>Alibaba, through three rounds of a total $4B investment, is a majority owner of Lazada.</p>\n<p>While Shopee (SE) takes the commanding lead in the SEA e-commerce marketplace, Lazada is still a No.2 with 100Mil+ monthly active users, ahead of Tokopedia.</p>\n<p>Alibaba only provides international e-commerce in aggregate (~5B) in FY21, with no revenue breakdown. Lazada and AliExpress are 2 primary contributors in this segment.</p>\n<p>As a reference, Tokopedia, an e-commerce competitor and No.3 in SEA, was valued at $18B.</p>\n<p>I take a conservative approach and value Lazada between $5B (acquisition cost) and $10B (50% discount to Tokopedia's recent valuation despite Lazada's slightly larger size).</p>\n<p><b>Local Services</b>(ele.me, koubei)</p>\n<p>Ele.me has about 80% of DoorDash (DASH) revenue, with 8x active customers (40Mil vs 5Mil) in FY21. In food delivery services in China, Meituan leads with 65% market share, ele.me No.2 with 27.4% market share, 3B FY21 revenue.</p>\n<p>If we use DoorDash valuation at 15x EV/Sales, that would value ele.me at 45B, if we use Grubhub's (GRUB) 8x EV/Sales, it values ele.me at $24B</p>\n<p>Alibaba acquired ele.me in 2018 for $9.5B.</p>\n<p>I take a conservative approach and value ele.me between 9.5B (acquisition cost) and $24B (use Grub Ev/Sales ratio).</p>\n<p><b>New Retail</b>(Freshippo)</p>\n<p>Known as Hema in China, it is similar to Amazon Go, a new retail format store leveraging technology to provide zero human touch shopping experience.</p>\n<p>I consider it as a part of its core commerce strategy to maintain its competitive edge and assign no additional value.</p>\n<p><b>Logistic</b>(Cainiao)</p>\n<p>Cainiao is Alibaba's logistic arm.</p>\n<p>BABA paid 3.3B to increase its Cainiao stake from 51% to 63% in its latestroundin 2019. That values its stake ~18B at cost.</p>\n<p><b>Cross border e-commerece</b>(Kaola)</p>\n<p>Kaola is considered to be a TMall extension to improve its core competency and I assign no additional value.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80468b018507ac3b52aeec68b0598486\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: FY21 Investorpresentation</p>\n<p><b>2. Alibaba Cloud</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Cloud's YoY revenue growth was 62% and 50% in the last two years. Its FY21 revenue was $9.2B and turned cash flow positive the first time with 47M adjusted Ebitda.</p>\n<p>In terms of China's cloud market share, Alibaba cloud leads the pack with 39.8% as of Q1 2021.</p>\n<p>According to China Internet Watch, cloud infrastructure spending growth in China outpaced the RoW, supported by the government's strategic priority in cloud computing, and it has been consistently over 50% over the last 7 quarters.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb80ade495a99acd13fa3efc4fc3f518\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb951fb359485adc84747b78e74c71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:China Cloud market 1Q21- China Internet Watch</p>\n<p>If we zoom out globally, Alibaba cloud ranks No 4 with a 6% market share, right after Amazon, Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG).</p>\n<p>It is about 20% the size of Amazon cloud in this $150B global market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ef9f1797dbfd7d1ca0ad84c3e009923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Cloud Market Q3Y20Canalys</p>\n<p>Similar research from Synergy Research Group in Q1 21 also confirmed the same ranking/market share.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5b1ff4c0cdbf586867d03a369d395e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source: Synergy Research Group on Statista</p>\n<p>Using a very conservative 10x P/S values Alibaba Cloud at $100B.</p>\n<p>Both GS (GS) and MS (MS)valuedAlibaba Cloud at $120B+ a year ago after Alibaba disclosed its 1Q21 fiscal data in Aug 2020.</p>\n<p>Given the above, I value Alibaba Cloud between 100B and 120B.</p>\n<p><b>3. Digital Media and Entertainment</b></p>\n<p>It includes YouKu, AliSports, AliGame, UC</p>\n<p>YouKu has 500M Monthly Active Users, 800M video views, one of China's top video/streaming service platforms, along with iQIYI, and Tencent Video.</p>\n<p>Alibaba spent $4B in 2016 to acquire Youku.</p>\n<p>Its main competitor iQIYI (IQ) is listed in Nasdaq, currently valued at 10.4B.</p>\n<p>Digital media/entertainment reported $4.5B revenue in FY21, with an adjusted Ebitda is 0.9B.</p>\n<p>I value Youku (and the rest of segment assets) between $4.5B (acquisition cost) and 9B (10x Ev/Ebitda).</p>\n<p><b>4. Innovation Initiatives</b></p>\n<p>As I have few visibilities in these innovation initiatives, I take a conservative approach and assign no value.</p>\n<p><b>5. Ant Group</b></p>\n<p>Ant Group valuation could certainly be a controversial take.</p>\n<p>Its valuation hit $320B at its peak prior to IPO. Since its IPO halt in Nov 2020, its valuation has declined significantly, the latestanalysisfrom Sanford Bernstein valued it at $120B.</p>\n<p>At a $120B valuation, BABA's 1/3 stake is worth $40B.</p>\n<p>put aside valuation, a head-to-head comparison between 2 dominating FinTech in China (Ant and Tencent) shows its massive scale in absolute numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6ed30632a6897a6c57eca61205d3bc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>source:TechCrunchchina's top fintech platform Ant vs Tencent</i></p>\n<p>Put the numbers into perspective, Ant Group's active user is about 2x PayPal (PYPL) size, and roughly the same revenue. PayPal is currently valued at $350B.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3318320d7217809542f5c2516c83cb01\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>source:SPGlobal</i></p>\n<p>An insightful comparison from S&amp;P Global market points out while Ant and PayPal revenue are comparable, Ant has about 20x TPV (Transaction Payment Volume) more than PayPal and Ant's take rate is only 5% of PayPal's.</p>\n<p>Note: PayPal take rate 2.5%, and Ant is at a mere 0.11%.</p>\n<p>As shown in Chart 1 and 2, PayPal's take rate has been steadily declining since 2018, while Ant increases.</p>\n<p>In summary, I think Bernstein's $120B valuations is a very conservative number. I consider Ant is on par with PayPal, and even with a 50% discount shall value Ant Group at $175B.</p>\n<p>Thus I would value Alibaba's 1/3 stake in Ant Group between $40B and $58B.</p>\n<p><b>6. Strategic Investments</b></p>\n<p>Reported by Alibaba at $45B valuations as of Jun30, 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce0e36c5240ce4a4c741785ea8a9de96\" tg-width=\"207\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Some notable investment includes:</p>\n<p>8% ownership stake in Bilibili (BILI)</p>\n<p>A single-digit ownership stake in DiDi (DIDI)</p>\n<p><b>Delisting Risk</b></p>\n<p>Now let us talk about the elephant in the room - its various risks, particularly its delisting risk as discussed frequently among US market participants</p>\n<p>I discussed the general Chinese ADR delisting risk in a recent Tweet thread. For these interested in the details:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfb7535a1b9fc863aa6d492ae17dc3f\" tg-width=\"583\" tg-height=\"432\"></p>\n<p>In summary:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>delisting poses an immediate trading liquidity risk, thus short-term volatility.</li>\n <li>Stocks are fungible. For dually listed stocks such as Alibaba, there is no/limited long-term material impact to shareholders especially if one is prepared and ready to receive its shares in the other exchange. In BABA's case, that would be its shares listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</li>\n <li>There are also established tender processes to redeem if the company offers, which was exactly what happened with China Mobile and China Unicom in earlier 2021.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Other Concerns</b></p>\n<p>Anti-monopoly violation: Alibaba was recently levied a $2.8B fine due to anti-monopoly violation. In relative terms, that fine alone has no material impact as it was less than 0.5% of its market cap. There are legit concerns that BABA could be subject to further regulatory fines in a less predictable manner.</p>\n<p>Jack Ma: Jack Ma risk has been talked about a lot. The fact is Jack Ma already stepped down from both chairmanship and CEO role of Alibaba and has gradually detached himself (at least in the public) from the business.</p>\n<p>Ant Group IPO halt: I think Ant Group IPO halt was a big disappointment and shows certain unpredictability in the current environment. However, I think that has been more than priced in.</p>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>A conservative sum of all parts values BABA enterprise value between 773B ($299/share) and 965B ($373/share). At the current price of $206/share, it offers 45% to 81% upside potential, and I am increasing my position at the current price.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: An Undervalued Empire With 45%+ Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: An Undervalued Empire With 45%+ Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 09:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438813-alibaba-stock-baba-undervalued-empire-with-45-percent-plus-upside><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba has top-ranking global business units from e-commerce marketplaces to cloud platforms.\nIts stock price has been under pressure for over a year by perceived political/delisting risk ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438813-alibaba-stock-baba-undervalued-empire-with-45-percent-plus-upside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438813-alibaba-stock-baba-undervalued-empire-with-45-percent-plus-upside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1171355403","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba has top-ranking global business units from e-commerce marketplaces to cloud platforms.\nIts stock price has been under pressure for over a year by perceived political/delisting risk and its recent Ant Financial IPO cancellation.\nI break it down by business units, show its strength and true value, and discuss its delisting risks.\n\nPrice action deviates from Fundamentals\nAlibaba Group Holding Limited(NYSE:BABA)stock total return has been ~-3% since Jan 2020, during which time not only its US Peer Amazon (AMZN) was up 101%, its Latin American peer MercadoLibre (MELI) was up 172%, even the S&P 500 index was up 39%.\nData by YCharts\nAlibaba is the largest eCommerce operation in the world. It has over 1B annual active consumers, over 1T GMV (gross merchandise volume) in FY21, both numbers larger than any other e-commerce company in the world, Amazon included.\nIn the meantime, Alibaba's core commerce and cloud computing recorded 42% and 50% YoY growth FY21. These are jaw-dropping growth numbers, especially at Alibaba's massive scale.\nAlso worth noting, while its revenue grows at an impressive rate, its Ebitda profit margin continues to show 17% YoY improvement, further demonstrate its superior unit economics, and effective cost control as it scales up.\n\nSource: 4Q21 AlibabaInvestor presentation\nInvestment Thesis\nMy conservative model values Alibaba between $773B ($299/share) to $967B ($373/share). It offers an upside potential between 45% and 81% to its closing price of $206/share on 7/9/21.\nThe table below provides a summary view of my Sum-of-all-parts valuation, and I discuss them in detail in later sections.\n\nSource: Excel sheet prepared by Author\nValuation By Segments\nAlibaba has four business segments and two investment segments, they are:\n\nCore Commerce: Taobao, TMall, Alibaba, AliExpress, Lazada, ele.me, etc.\nCloud Computing: Alibaba Cloud\nDigital Media: Youku, Ali Sports, AliGame, etc.\nInnovative Initiatives: gmap, AliOS, etc\nAnt Group\nOther strategic Investments: DiDi, bilibili, etc\n\nLet us dive into them.\n\nSource:Alibaba Investor Day2020\n1. Core Commerce\nMarketplace-based core commerceincludes Taobao, TMall, 1688.com, alibaba.com, AliExpress, TMall Market. These are mature and profit-generating marketplaces with steady growth.\nThese are the crown jewels of Alibaba's empire. It composes of No.1 Online retail, No.1 online wholesale, and No 1 B2C Export marketplace in China.\nFY21 adj Ebitda for marketplace-based core commerce is $35B.\nI use a moderate 15x - 20x Ev/Ebitda ratio (e.g. Amazon is 30x+ Ev/Ebitda), values its marketplace-based core commerce between 570B and 700B.\nLazada:international retail marketplace in SEA\nAlibaba, through three rounds of a total $4B investment, is a majority owner of Lazada.\nWhile Shopee (SE) takes the commanding lead in the SEA e-commerce marketplace, Lazada is still a No.2 with 100Mil+ monthly active users, ahead of Tokopedia.\nAlibaba only provides international e-commerce in aggregate (~5B) in FY21, with no revenue breakdown. Lazada and AliExpress are 2 primary contributors in this segment.\nAs a reference, Tokopedia, an e-commerce competitor and No.3 in SEA, was valued at $18B.\nI take a conservative approach and value Lazada between $5B (acquisition cost) and $10B (50% discount to Tokopedia's recent valuation despite Lazada's slightly larger size).\nLocal Services(ele.me, koubei)\nEle.me has about 80% of DoorDash (DASH) revenue, with 8x active customers (40Mil vs 5Mil) in FY21. In food delivery services in China, Meituan leads with 65% market share, ele.me No.2 with 27.4% market share, 3B FY21 revenue.\nIf we use DoorDash valuation at 15x EV/Sales, that would value ele.me at 45B, if we use Grubhub's (GRUB) 8x EV/Sales, it values ele.me at $24B\nAlibaba acquired ele.me in 2018 for $9.5B.\nI take a conservative approach and value ele.me between 9.5B (acquisition cost) and $24B (use Grub Ev/Sales ratio).\nNew Retail(Freshippo)\nKnown as Hema in China, it is similar to Amazon Go, a new retail format store leveraging technology to provide zero human touch shopping experience.\nI consider it as a part of its core commerce strategy to maintain its competitive edge and assign no additional value.\nLogistic(Cainiao)\nCainiao is Alibaba's logistic arm.\nBABA paid 3.3B to increase its Cainiao stake from 51% to 63% in its latestroundin 2019. That values its stake ~18B at cost.\nCross border e-commerece(Kaola)\nKaola is considered to be a TMall extension to improve its core competency and I assign no additional value.\nSource: FY21 Investorpresentation\n2. Alibaba Cloud\nAlibaba Cloud's YoY revenue growth was 62% and 50% in the last two years. Its FY21 revenue was $9.2B and turned cash flow positive the first time with 47M adjusted Ebitda.\nIn terms of China's cloud market share, Alibaba cloud leads the pack with 39.8% as of Q1 2021.\nAccording to China Internet Watch, cloud infrastructure spending growth in China outpaced the RoW, supported by the government's strategic priority in cloud computing, and it has been consistently over 50% over the last 7 quarters.\n\n\nSource:China Cloud market 1Q21- China Internet Watch\nIf we zoom out globally, Alibaba cloud ranks No 4 with a 6% market share, right after Amazon, Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG).\nIt is about 20% the size of Amazon cloud in this $150B global market.\n\nSource:Cloud Market Q3Y20Canalys\nSimilar research from Synergy Research Group in Q1 21 also confirmed the same ranking/market share.\n\nSource: Synergy Research Group on Statista\nUsing a very conservative 10x P/S values Alibaba Cloud at $100B.\nBoth GS (GS) and MS (MS)valuedAlibaba Cloud at $120B+ a year ago after Alibaba disclosed its 1Q21 fiscal data in Aug 2020.\nGiven the above, I value Alibaba Cloud between 100B and 120B.\n3. Digital Media and Entertainment\nIt includes YouKu, AliSports, AliGame, UC\nYouKu has 500M Monthly Active Users, 800M video views, one of China's top video/streaming service platforms, along with iQIYI, and Tencent Video.\nAlibaba spent $4B in 2016 to acquire Youku.\nIts main competitor iQIYI (IQ) is listed in Nasdaq, currently valued at 10.4B.\nDigital media/entertainment reported $4.5B revenue in FY21, with an adjusted Ebitda is 0.9B.\nI value Youku (and the rest of segment assets) between $4.5B (acquisition cost) and 9B (10x Ev/Ebitda).\n4. Innovation Initiatives\nAs I have few visibilities in these innovation initiatives, I take a conservative approach and assign no value.\n5. Ant Group\nAnt Group valuation could certainly be a controversial take.\nIts valuation hit $320B at its peak prior to IPO. Since its IPO halt in Nov 2020, its valuation has declined significantly, the latestanalysisfrom Sanford Bernstein valued it at $120B.\nAt a $120B valuation, BABA's 1/3 stake is worth $40B.\nput aside valuation, a head-to-head comparison between 2 dominating FinTech in China (Ant and Tencent) shows its massive scale in absolute numbers.\n\nsource:TechCrunchchina's top fintech platform Ant vs Tencent\nPut the numbers into perspective, Ant Group's active user is about 2x PayPal (PYPL) size, and roughly the same revenue. PayPal is currently valued at $350B.\n\nsource:SPGlobal\nAn insightful comparison from S&P Global market points out while Ant and PayPal revenue are comparable, Ant has about 20x TPV (Transaction Payment Volume) more than PayPal and Ant's take rate is only 5% of PayPal's.\nNote: PayPal take rate 2.5%, and Ant is at a mere 0.11%.\nAs shown in Chart 1 and 2, PayPal's take rate has been steadily declining since 2018, while Ant increases.\nIn summary, I think Bernstein's $120B valuations is a very conservative number. I consider Ant is on par with PayPal, and even with a 50% discount shall value Ant Group at $175B.\nThus I would value Alibaba's 1/3 stake in Ant Group between $40B and $58B.\n6. Strategic Investments\nReported by Alibaba at $45B valuations as of Jun30, 2020.\n\nSome notable investment includes:\n8% ownership stake in Bilibili (BILI)\nA single-digit ownership stake in DiDi (DIDI)\nDelisting Risk\nNow let us talk about the elephant in the room - its various risks, particularly its delisting risk as discussed frequently among US market participants\nI discussed the general Chinese ADR delisting risk in a recent Tweet thread. For these interested in the details:\n\nIn summary:\n\ndelisting poses an immediate trading liquidity risk, thus short-term volatility.\nStocks are fungible. For dually listed stocks such as Alibaba, there is no/limited long-term material impact to shareholders especially if one is prepared and ready to receive its shares in the other exchange. In BABA's case, that would be its shares listed on Hong Kong Stock Exchange.\nThere are also established tender processes to redeem if the company offers, which was exactly what happened with China Mobile and China Unicom in earlier 2021.\n\nOther Concerns\nAnti-monopoly violation: Alibaba was recently levied a $2.8B fine due to anti-monopoly violation. In relative terms, that fine alone has no material impact as it was less than 0.5% of its market cap. There are legit concerns that BABA could be subject to further regulatory fines in a less predictable manner.\nJack Ma: Jack Ma risk has been talked about a lot. The fact is Jack Ma already stepped down from both chairmanship and CEO role of Alibaba and has gradually detached himself (at least in the public) from the business.\nAnt Group IPO halt: I think Ant Group IPO halt was a big disappointment and shows certain unpredictability in the current environment. However, I think that has been more than priced in.\nConcluding Thoughts\nA conservative sum of all parts values BABA enterprise value between 773B ($299/share) and 965B ($373/share). At the current price of $206/share, it offers 45% to 81% upside potential, and I am increasing my position at the current price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142261842,"gmtCreate":1626153700586,"gmtModify":1703754427979,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142261842","repostId":"1117501625","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117501625","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626141553,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117501625?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 09:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Still a Big Winner, But Facing Stiff Investment Headwinds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117501625","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMZN stock may suffer unless the company reverses its record on worker treatment and carbon.\n\nAs Jef","content":"<blockquote>\n AMZN stock may suffer unless the company reverses its record on worker treatment and carbon.\n</blockquote>\n<p>As Jeff Bezos hands the proverbial car keys of<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) to new CEO Andy Jassy, he’s giving him not just a Ferrari, but an army of them. AMZN stock has a market capitalization of almost $1.8 trillion – a number I’d have though impossible just a few years ago – which means Jassy has enough to buy<b>Ferrari SV</b>(NYSE:<b><u>RACE</u></b>)<i>45 times</i>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08cffbd4375717a6a01daaf1d19c0286\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\">Source: Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>AMZN stock may those be one of those growth investments that comes along once in a lifetime. Unless of course you are Bezos and can use your fortune to create some sort of immortality elixir with fast free shipping.</p>\n<p>So yes: The safe money and smart money backs the proposition that Jassy can’t possibly mess this up. Not if he tried and tried and tried and tired, then ran naked and screaming through a trading pit and tried again. The stock might still go up.</p>\n<p><b>AMZN Stock: Unstoppable or Untenable?</b></p>\n<p>Among Wall Street types, AMZN stock remains as strong a buy as you’ll find,with 42 calling it a buy, six overweight and one a hold. Not a single seller in the bunch.</p>\n<p>And yet, this kind of endless, unbelievable upward trajectory deserves further scrutiny when one considers market factors Amazon.com cannot control, combined with operational negatives it has so far refused to address or change.</p>\n<p>You might think this mega-ultra-behemoth company can get away being the same old Amazon for as long as it likes. At least in theory and based on its investment track record, there’s a strong case for this. But in practice, AMZN stock faces a potential financial tsunami that not even a year’s worth of Prime Days can slow down. What is it? Glad I asked.</p>\n<p><b>Enter a New Investing Megatrend</b></p>\n<p>It’s entirely possible that AMZN will get punished something fierce in the years ahead. Granted, I’m not selling my shares just yet. But allow me to make the case for extreme caution, rooted in an investment phenomenon that’s largely escaped notice in the U.S., but in fact has taken over the world.</p>\n<p>No force dominates the institutional finance strategies of the world today like ESG investing. It stands for environmental, social and governance factors that measure and score how responsibly a company behaves. Sounds like a yawner for tree huggers and do-gooders, right? Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wronger still. Like, wrongerly wrongo-wrong-wrong-o-rama<i>.</i></p>\n<p>In fact, as far off as you can get, more dunce-like thanJim Cramer ranting at Bear Stearns shareholdersin March 2008 not to sell when the company disintegrated into investment infamy just six days later.</p>\n<p><b>ESG and AMZN Stock Challenges</b></p>\n<p>Here are the facts: Between 2018 and 2020, total U.S.-domiciled sustainably invested assets under management, both institutional and retail,grew 42%, to $17.1 trillion, up from $12 trillion. Sold off at the rate of $10 million per day, these funds would take close to 4,685 years to exhaust. To be sure, AMZN stock does not belong to this select group, in fact failing on the “E” and “S” fronts pretty miserably.</p>\n<p>A recent hi-profile<i>New York Times</i>piece detailed – with heartbreaking detail –how Amazon has treated its front-line workers as expendable, even when faced with crushing medical conditions. That’s a big, big deal, given that the company is worth some $1.8 trillion. Imagine if they pumped even 5% of that back into better employee treatment. You may not care – but the rest of the investing world is watching.</p>\n<p>The danger here is that Jassy, well known as a numbers guy and workaholic, will prove himself tone deaf to these concerns.</p>\n<p>On at least one score, he seems like the right guy for the job: He was the CEO and chief architect of Amazon’s cloud business (Amazon Web Services), overseeing the company’s biggest profit driver. And he has the stuff to lead Amazon to stratospheric heights if he can leverage what he’s already built.</p>\n<p><b>Disgusted Consumers Drive Shareholder Losses</b></p>\n<p>But he needs to know, as does as everyone holding AMZN stock, that the ESG phenomenon is driven by boots-on-the-ground consumers. As they make choices such as clean energy over fossil fuels, or socially responsible vendors over draconian ones, this will inevitably decrease revenue in the former categories. Then the big-shot asset managers, even if they put returns first, will simply move their money to the company that wins ESG points and profits in the marketplace.</p>\n<p>Even on the climate change score, Amazon is failing. Yes, the company has made green pledges. But by “green,” they must mean cash. According to the&nbsp;<i>Associated Press</i>,&nbsp;Amazon’s carbon footprint grew 15% in 2019.</p>\n<p>All of this concerns me. And it makes me wonder whether I am inching into “sin stock” territory by keeping these shares in my portfolio. I’m staying put for now. But I can’t help wondering whether other investors are starting to feel the same. And it would only take some well-funded competitors to offer just what Amazon does, but in a more globally responsible way, for the bottom line to get hurt. Why? Because ESG investors would turn their way.</p>\n<p>It’s not so far-fetched a scenario as y’all might think. Jassy’s call, if he is to grow Amazon to new heights, will be to use the company’s galactic-sized coffers to do the right thing. After all, he can’t claim a lack of resources as an excuse to pollute less, care more and treat workers better – much better – in the years to come.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Still a Big Winner, But Facing Stiff Investment Headwinds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Still a Big Winner, But Facing Stiff Investment Headwinds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 09:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/07/amzn-stock-amazon-still-a-big-winner-but-facing-stiff-investment-headwinds/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMZN stock may suffer unless the company reverses its record on worker treatment and carbon.\n\nAs Jeff Bezos hands the proverbial car keys ofAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) to new CEO Andy Jassy, he’s giving him ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/amzn-stock-amazon-still-a-big-winner-but-facing-stiff-investment-headwinds/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/amzn-stock-amazon-still-a-big-winner-but-facing-stiff-investment-headwinds/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117501625","content_text":"AMZN stock may suffer unless the company reverses its record on worker treatment and carbon.\n\nAs Jeff Bezos hands the proverbial car keys ofAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) to new CEO Andy Jassy, he’s giving him not just a Ferrari, but an army of them. AMZN stock has a market capitalization of almost $1.8 trillion – a number I’d have though impossible just a few years ago – which means Jassy has enough to buyFerrari SV(NYSE:RACE)45 times.\nSource: Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock.com\nAMZN stock may those be one of those growth investments that comes along once in a lifetime. Unless of course you are Bezos and can use your fortune to create some sort of immortality elixir with fast free shipping.\nSo yes: The safe money and smart money backs the proposition that Jassy can’t possibly mess this up. Not if he tried and tried and tried and tired, then ran naked and screaming through a trading pit and tried again. The stock might still go up.\nAMZN Stock: Unstoppable or Untenable?\nAmong Wall Street types, AMZN stock remains as strong a buy as you’ll find,with 42 calling it a buy, six overweight and one a hold. Not a single seller in the bunch.\nAnd yet, this kind of endless, unbelievable upward trajectory deserves further scrutiny when one considers market factors Amazon.com cannot control, combined with operational negatives it has so far refused to address or change.\nYou might think this mega-ultra-behemoth company can get away being the same old Amazon for as long as it likes. At least in theory and based on its investment track record, there’s a strong case for this. But in practice, AMZN stock faces a potential financial tsunami that not even a year’s worth of Prime Days can slow down. What is it? Glad I asked.\nEnter a New Investing Megatrend\nIt’s entirely possible that AMZN will get punished something fierce in the years ahead. Granted, I’m not selling my shares just yet. But allow me to make the case for extreme caution, rooted in an investment phenomenon that’s largely escaped notice in the U.S., but in fact has taken over the world.\nNo force dominates the institutional finance strategies of the world today like ESG investing. It stands for environmental, social and governance factors that measure and score how responsibly a company behaves. Sounds like a yawner for tree huggers and do-gooders, right? Wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wronger still. Like, wrongerly wrongo-wrong-wrong-o-rama.\nIn fact, as far off as you can get, more dunce-like thanJim Cramer ranting at Bear Stearns shareholdersin March 2008 not to sell when the company disintegrated into investment infamy just six days later.\nESG and AMZN Stock Challenges\nHere are the facts: Between 2018 and 2020, total U.S.-domiciled sustainably invested assets under management, both institutional and retail,grew 42%, to $17.1 trillion, up from $12 trillion. Sold off at the rate of $10 million per day, these funds would take close to 4,685 years to exhaust. To be sure, AMZN stock does not belong to this select group, in fact failing on the “E” and “S” fronts pretty miserably.\nA recent hi-profileNew York Timespiece detailed – with heartbreaking detail –how Amazon has treated its front-line workers as expendable, even when faced with crushing medical conditions. That’s a big, big deal, given that the company is worth some $1.8 trillion. Imagine if they pumped even 5% of that back into better employee treatment. You may not care – but the rest of the investing world is watching.\nThe danger here is that Jassy, well known as a numbers guy and workaholic, will prove himself tone deaf to these concerns.\nOn at least one score, he seems like the right guy for the job: He was the CEO and chief architect of Amazon’s cloud business (Amazon Web Services), overseeing the company’s biggest profit driver. And he has the stuff to lead Amazon to stratospheric heights if he can leverage what he’s already built.\nDisgusted Consumers Drive Shareholder Losses\nBut he needs to know, as does as everyone holding AMZN stock, that the ESG phenomenon is driven by boots-on-the-ground consumers. As they make choices such as clean energy over fossil fuels, or socially responsible vendors over draconian ones, this will inevitably decrease revenue in the former categories. Then the big-shot asset managers, even if they put returns first, will simply move their money to the company that wins ESG points and profits in the marketplace.\nEven on the climate change score, Amazon is failing. Yes, the company has made green pledges. But by “green,” they must mean cash. According to the Associated Press, Amazon’s carbon footprint grew 15% in 2019.\nAll of this concerns me. And it makes me wonder whether I am inching into “sin stock” territory by keeping these shares in my portfolio. I’m staying put for now. But I can’t help wondering whether other investors are starting to feel the same. And it would only take some well-funded competitors to offer just what Amazon does, but in a more globally responsible way, for the bottom line to get hurt. Why? Because ESG investors would turn their way.\nIt’s not so far-fetched a scenario as y’all might think. Jassy’s call, if he is to grow Amazon to new heights, will be to use the company’s galactic-sized coffers to do the right thing. After all, he can’t claim a lack of resources as an excuse to pollute less, care more and treat workers better – much better – in the years to come.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142261947,"gmtCreate":1626153685889,"gmtModify":1703754427654,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142261947","repostId":"1193706990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142263427,"gmtCreate":1626153654569,"gmtModify":1703754427165,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nope","listText":"Nope","text":"Nope","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142263427","repostId":"1153964222","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153964222","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626142319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153964222?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 10:11","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Airlines set for regional dominance as rivals pull back","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153964222","media":"traveldaily","summary":"Singapore Airlines has, with aid from the state investor, been in a position of dominance over its S","content":"<p><b>Singapore Airlines has, with aid from the state investor, been in a position of dominance over its South-East Asian competitors as they decrease and restructure, with US$16 billion (S$ 21.6 billion) from the start of a Covid 19 pandemic.</b></p>\n<p>The crisis has threatened the survival of non-domestic carriers like SIA, Cathay Pacific Airways in Hong Kong, and Emirates in Dubai. Indeed, the government “would spare no effort” to ensure that the SIA copes through the pandemic, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last year.</p>\n<p>Temasek Holdings has been one of the world’s leading airline rescue packages by its majority shareholder, government-owned investment force. Singapore Airlines, therefore, has sufficient funds to continue to operate without cuts for at least two more years, modernise its fleet to save energy, reduce maintenance costs and achieve environmental objectives while other airlines shut out aircraft.</p>\n<p>The cash pole of Singapore Airlines is the envy of competitors like Thai Airways and Garuda Indonesia, who received little support from the government. Many competitors of Singapore Airlines cut fleets to a level that could eventually weaken their hubs and send more traffic to Singapore.</p>\n<p>“Basically, what these airlines are trying to do is they are trying to ward off their debtors,” said Subhas Menon, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.</p>\n<p>In the meantime, Singapore Airlines is enhancing its fleet and strengthening the Scoot budget. Leisure travel has brought recovery in Europe and North America; budget carriers are crucial for airlines if they do so in Asia.</p>\n<p>Singapore Airlines is less immediately under pressure for further downsizing after having abated old aircraft and cut 20% of its staff last year. In May, CEO Goh Choon Phong described the job cuts last year as a “very painful process” and said that there was no more intention.</p>\n<p>But analysts say 12-18 months could be needed in Asia to resume widespread travel.</p>\n<p>“They can survive for two or three years without making any money,” CAPA Centre for Aviation chairman Emeritus Peter Harbison said. “But at a certain stage, you say, ‘is it worth it? Shouldn’t you take tough steps?'”</p>\n<p>Less than 9 per 100 of the rights sold in the recent issue of SIA A$8.3 billion convertible bonds have been sold to shareholders other than Temasek.</p>\n<p>Over a period of three years after agreements with the manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, Singapore Airlines deferred A$5.4 billion for new aircraft.</p>\n<p>However, due to large pre-crisis orders, it still spends A$ 4.9 billion on new aircraft and this year, despite low demand, adds a minimum of 19 aircraft in its fleet, including 13 widebodies.</p>\n<p>By contrast, Germany’s larger Lufthansa, which earned nearly four times as much revenue annually pre-Covid, has a capital spending budget of about 1.5 billion euros (A$2.37 billion) for 2021.</p>\n<p>Singapore Airlines financial cushioning makes it harder to push back on contracts with manufacturers and lessors. Temasek supports fleet modernisation.</p>\n<p>With travel in a holding pattern and rivals distracted by financial issues, Scoot has been using some of Singapore Airlines cash to boost staff training and invest in new software that helps it calculate more profitable fares for connecting flights.</p>\n<p>“There has been a lot of investment, which is certainly geared toward a future recovery,” Scoot CEO Campbell Wilson said. “Those investments I hope will pay off as time passes.”</p>\n<p>Thai Airways lost significant market share to budget rivals in the decade before the pandemic, contributing to years of losses, and has yet to formulate a fresh low-cost strategy as part of a restructuring involving US$12.9 billion of debt.</p>\n<p>Garuda, Malaysia Airlines and Philippine Airlines are in similar positions, either having completed or about to launch major restructurings. They lost money for years before the pandemic.</p>\n<p>“Presumably in shedding their liabilities they will create some unhappy people who were owed money that was never paid,” Mr Wilson said. “The extent to which that subsequently constrains them, time will tell.”</p>","source":"lsy1626142367154","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Airlines set for regional dominance as rivals pull back</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Airlines set for regional dominance as rivals pull back\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 10:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.traveldailymedia.com/singapore-airlines-set-for-regional-dominance-as-rivals-pull-back/><strong>traveldaily</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Singapore Airlines has, with aid from the state investor, been in a position of dominance over its South-East Asian competitors as they decrease and restructure, with US$16 billion (S$ 21.6 billion) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.traveldailymedia.com/singapore-airlines-set-for-regional-dominance-as-rivals-pull-back/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://www.traveldailymedia.com/singapore-airlines-set-for-regional-dominance-as-rivals-pull-back/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153964222","content_text":"Singapore Airlines has, with aid from the state investor, been in a position of dominance over its South-East Asian competitors as they decrease and restructure, with US$16 billion (S$ 21.6 billion) from the start of a Covid 19 pandemic.\nThe crisis has threatened the survival of non-domestic carriers like SIA, Cathay Pacific Airways in Hong Kong, and Emirates in Dubai. Indeed, the government “would spare no effort” to ensure that the SIA copes through the pandemic, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last year.\nTemasek Holdings has been one of the world’s leading airline rescue packages by its majority shareholder, government-owned investment force. Singapore Airlines, therefore, has sufficient funds to continue to operate without cuts for at least two more years, modernise its fleet to save energy, reduce maintenance costs and achieve environmental objectives while other airlines shut out aircraft.\nThe cash pole of Singapore Airlines is the envy of competitors like Thai Airways and Garuda Indonesia, who received little support from the government. Many competitors of Singapore Airlines cut fleets to a level that could eventually weaken their hubs and send more traffic to Singapore.\n“Basically, what these airlines are trying to do is they are trying to ward off their debtors,” said Subhas Menon, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines.\nIn the meantime, Singapore Airlines is enhancing its fleet and strengthening the Scoot budget. Leisure travel has brought recovery in Europe and North America; budget carriers are crucial for airlines if they do so in Asia.\nSingapore Airlines is less immediately under pressure for further downsizing after having abated old aircraft and cut 20% of its staff last year. In May, CEO Goh Choon Phong described the job cuts last year as a “very painful process” and said that there was no more intention.\nBut analysts say 12-18 months could be needed in Asia to resume widespread travel.\n“They can survive for two or three years without making any money,” CAPA Centre for Aviation chairman Emeritus Peter Harbison said. “But at a certain stage, you say, ‘is it worth it? Shouldn’t you take tough steps?'”\nLess than 9 per 100 of the rights sold in the recent issue of SIA A$8.3 billion convertible bonds have been sold to shareholders other than Temasek.\nOver a period of three years after agreements with the manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, Singapore Airlines deferred A$5.4 billion for new aircraft.\nHowever, due to large pre-crisis orders, it still spends A$ 4.9 billion on new aircraft and this year, despite low demand, adds a minimum of 19 aircraft in its fleet, including 13 widebodies.\nBy contrast, Germany’s larger Lufthansa, which earned nearly four times as much revenue annually pre-Covid, has a capital spending budget of about 1.5 billion euros (A$2.37 billion) for 2021.\nSingapore Airlines financial cushioning makes it harder to push back on contracts with manufacturers and lessors. Temasek supports fleet modernisation.\nWith travel in a holding pattern and rivals distracted by financial issues, Scoot has been using some of Singapore Airlines cash to boost staff training and invest in new software that helps it calculate more profitable fares for connecting flights.\n“There has been a lot of investment, which is certainly geared toward a future recovery,” Scoot CEO Campbell Wilson said. “Those investments I hope will pay off as time passes.”\nThai Airways lost significant market share to budget rivals in the decade before the pandemic, contributing to years of losses, and has yet to formulate a fresh low-cost strategy as part of a restructuring involving US$12.9 billion of debt.\nGaruda, Malaysia Airlines and Philippine Airlines are in similar positions, either having completed or about to launch major restructurings. They lost money for years before the pandemic.\n“Presumably in shedding their liabilities they will create some unhappy people who were owed money that was never paid,” Mr Wilson said. “The extent to which that subsequently constrains them, time will tell.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142269660,"gmtCreate":1626153513950,"gmtModify":1703754425684,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/142269660","repostId":"1142072504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142072504","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626142838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142072504?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Nvidia Stock A Buy Now Before Its Stock Splits?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142072504","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA has announced a stock split, and here's what you need to know about it.\nStock splits","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NVIDIA has announced a stock split, and here's what you need to know about it.</li>\n <li>Stock splits can lead to irrational price movements in the near term, but in the long run, growth and valuation will be the important drivers for a stock's performance.</li>\n <li>NVIDIA experiences strong growth and is well-positioned to grow further, but its shares are historically expensive today.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA)announced a stock splitthat will go into effect on July 20. Other companies, such as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)have seen their shares do well following stock splits last year, but I still don't think it's a good idea to buy solely due to an announced stock split. NVIDIA's shares are expensive, but on the other hand, the company is growing fast and has a lot of room for growth in the coming years. For long-term oriented investors, NVIDIA could be a solid investment, although waiting for a correction to get a more favorable entry price could pay off.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f30d3b4db0860b4fdf506081129744f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source:StockRover</i></p>\n<p>We see that NVIDIA is currently trading at a steep premium compared to many of its peers, while also offering a dividend yield that is well below the average. To some degree, the premium seems justified due to NVIDIA's strong growth outlook.</p>\n<p><b>NVIDIA Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation has been one of the best performers in recent years, as the company saw its share price explode upwards due to a combination of fast growth, crypto mining tailwinds, a PC gaming boom that is great for NVIDIA's GPU segment, and the market's admiration for growth stocks:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ad45b1496adb2223717daa54a2e02f3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n<p>Over the last ten years, NVIDIA saw its shares deliver an incredible 4,900% return, turning a $10,000 investment into $500,000. Even in 2021, which saw some growth stocks underperform, NVIDIA has done very well so far, as its shares rose by around 50% during the first half.</p>\n<p>At $815 per share, NVIDIA is currently trading just a couple of percentage points below its all-time high. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $750, thus shares do seem rather expensive. If the analyst community is right, then NVIDIA will not generate compelling returns over the next year. One could indeed argue that shares have run too far this year and that a phase of consolidation would make sense, as the company's business growth has to catch up to the massive 50% share price increase in H1 alone. Based on current EPS estimates for this year, shares trade for 51x forward earnings -- again, this seems rather expensive, which may indicate that right now may not be the best time to enter or expand a position.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA Stock Going To Split Soon?</b></p>\n<p>The announced stock split will go into effect on July 20. On that day, NVIDIA's shares are split at a 4-1 rate, which will make the share count grow to ~2.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. Shares should then trade for a little above $200, all else equal, although it is of course possible that NVIDIA's shares rise or fall between the time of writing and July 20.</p>\n<p><b>Is It Better To Buy Before Or After A Stock Split?</b></p>\n<p>In theory, a stock split does not change the value of the underlying company; it just leads to the company being divided into more individual shares. There are, however, some psychological factors at play that can lead to share price performance being influenced by stock splits. First, shares may appear cheaper at first sight for those that do not look at metrics such as the earnings multiple, which may incite buying. On top of that, some investors seem to erroneously believe that buying shares before a stock split will somehow get them a larger part of the company once the stock split happens, which is, of course, not true. Investors will end up owning more shares than they originally purchased pre-split, but those shares won't amount to a greater ownership of the company.</p>\n<p>Stock splits may also influence the likelihood of a company getting into an index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(NYSEARCA:DIA), which could then lead to additional demand from ETFs that replicate the index. In that way, a stock split can lead to higher share prices eventually, as the supply/demand ratio changes.</p>\n<p>In the past, when fractional share buying was not available for most investors, stock splits also could lead to more buying due to making shares more affordable for some investors. In today's environment, where fractional share buying is ubiquitous, that is not really the case any longer, however.</p>\n<p>Last year, two major companies, Tesla and Apple, split their stocks, which led to increased buying in both companies:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad201a51d0c4eec6a6f9254a3509d062\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n<p>Between July 30, 2020, and August 31, 2020, the date of the announcement of the upcoming stock split and the date of the actual stock split, Apple's shares rose rapidly, easily outperforming the market. That was likely not solely the result of the announced stock split, but it seems likely that this played a role in Apple's share price surge during that one-month period. In the month following the stock split, AAPL saw its shares decline by 12%.</p>\n<p>Tesla, meanwhile, saw its shares rise by an incredible 81% in the time frame between the announcement of the stock split and the actual split, which was about half a month. Tesla's shares also declined by a little more than 10% during the month following the actual stock split. One could thus, it seems, make a case that buying shares of major companies when they announce a stock split and selling shares when the split happens could make sense. There is, however, no guarantee for this scenario to play out every time, and it is very much possible that the two examples above are outliers that are not representative of overall stock performance prior to and following a stock split.</p>\n<p>NVDA has seen its shares rise by 15%+ since the company announced its current stock split, thus possibly, we could see a similar pattern to what happened with Tesla and Apple, although at a less pronounced rate. NVDA has outperformed the broad market following the split announcement, and that may at least partially be the result of traders piling into the stock hoping for short-term gains.</p>\n<p>A1996 studyby David Ikenberry of Rice University shows that, at least in the 1980s and 1990s, stock splits oftentimes resulted in outperformance<i>following</i>the stock split. The stock price gains seen by TSLA and AAPL immediately<i>prior</i>to the stock split may be outliers.</p>\n<p>Overall, we can thus summarize that stock splits do not impact the underlying value of the company. Due to psychological factors, however, there may be irrational price movements in a stock's price prior to or following a stock split. Buying based on expectations of such movements is a strategy I would avoid, however, as it can't be foreseen whether these price moves do really materialize. Stock investments should, I believe, primarily be driven by factors such as growth, valuation, dividends, etc.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>I wouldn't buy or sell based on news around a stock split alone, thus whether one wants to invest in NVIDIA is a question that I would approach from another side. Is the growth strong enough to justify paying a 50x earnings multiple?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e9f946709618e90dea6ed23a0e5977\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts</p>\n<p>NVDA is currently not only trading at a premium to most of its peers, but shares are also trading at a premium relative to how they were valued in the past. This is despite the fact that NVIDIA is a much larger company today than it was 5 or 10 years ago. Due to the fact that the law of large numbers will likely result in growth rates that are lower than what NVIDIA has delivered in the past, it seems questionable whether it's sensible for NVIDIA to be<i>more</i>expensive than it used to be.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, since NVIDIA is experiencing very healthy growth still, and will continue to grow in the coming years, returns don't have to be bad. A while ago I laid out a scenario that results in ashare price of around $1,200for NVIDIA in 2027, which would equate to annual returns of around 7% from today's price -- not bad at all, but significantly less than what NVIDIA delivered in the past. In that scenario, NVIDIA grows its EPS to around $38 over the next six years, or by around 140% versus current estimates for 2021. I also calculated with an earnings multiple of around 30, which is much closer to how NVIDIA's shares were historically valued, compared to the current valuation. One can, of course, argue whether my growth estimates are too high or too low, but I found this to be a solid base case scenario. Using that price target to gauge whether NVIDIA is attractive today, I'd say shares are not a bad holding at all, but the return outlook does not convince me to enter a position here. If shares fell back to the $500 level, where they traded just a couple of months ago, the story would be a very different one, however -- at that point, buying could lead to compelling long-term returns.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA will split its shares soon, but that alone is not a good reason to buy shares. TSLA and AAPL have seen their shares underperform following the stock split, at least for a while, and the same may happen for NVIDIA, although there is no guarantee for that. In the long run, i.e. over several years, stock splits tend to correlate with an above-average performance, but again, there is no guarantee that this will happen here.</p>\n<p>Due to the above-average valuation and due to the fact that shares trade at a premium to the analyst price target, I wouldn't buy shares here, despite NVIDIA's compelling growth outlook. If shares give back some of their gains from 2021, buying into a position could lead to attractive long-term returns, however.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Nvidia Stock A Buy Now Before Its Stock Splits?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Nvidia Stock A Buy Now Before Its Stock Splits?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438814-nvidia-stock-buy-before-stock-split><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNVIDIA has announced a stock split, and here's what you need to know about it.\nStock splits can lead to irrational price movements in the near term, but in the long run, growth and valuation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438814-nvidia-stock-buy-before-stock-split\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438814-nvidia-stock-buy-before-stock-split","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1142072504","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA has announced a stock split, and here's what you need to know about it.\nStock splits can lead to irrational price movements in the near term, but in the long run, growth and valuation will be the important drivers for a stock's performance.\nNVIDIA experiences strong growth and is well-positioned to grow further, but its shares are historically expensive today.\n\nArticle Thesis\nNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA)announced a stock splitthat will go into effect on July 20. Other companies, such as Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)have seen their shares do well following stock splits last year, but I still don't think it's a good idea to buy solely due to an announced stock split. NVIDIA's shares are expensive, but on the other hand, the company is growing fast and has a lot of room for growth in the coming years. For long-term oriented investors, NVIDIA could be a solid investment, although waiting for a correction to get a more favorable entry price could pay off.\n\nSource:StockRover\nWe see that NVIDIA is currently trading at a steep premium compared to many of its peers, while also offering a dividend yield that is well below the average. To some degree, the premium seems justified due to NVIDIA's strong growth outlook.\nNVIDIA Stock Price\nNVIDIA Corporation has been one of the best performers in recent years, as the company saw its share price explode upwards due to a combination of fast growth, crypto mining tailwinds, a PC gaming boom that is great for NVIDIA's GPU segment, and the market's admiration for growth stocks:\nData by YCharts\nOver the last ten years, NVIDIA saw its shares deliver an incredible 4,900% return, turning a $10,000 investment into $500,000. Even in 2021, which saw some growth stocks underperform, NVIDIA has done very well so far, as its shares rose by around 50% during the first half.\nAt $815 per share, NVIDIA is currently trading just a couple of percentage points below its all-time high. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $750, thus shares do seem rather expensive. If the analyst community is right, then NVIDIA will not generate compelling returns over the next year. One could indeed argue that shares have run too far this year and that a phase of consolidation would make sense, as the company's business growth has to catch up to the massive 50% share price increase in H1 alone. Based on current EPS estimates for this year, shares trade for 51x forward earnings -- again, this seems rather expensive, which may indicate that right now may not be the best time to enter or expand a position.\nIs NVIDIA Stock Going To Split Soon?\nThe announced stock split will go into effect on July 20. On that day, NVIDIA's shares are split at a 4-1 rate, which will make the share count grow to ~2.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. Shares should then trade for a little above $200, all else equal, although it is of course possible that NVIDIA's shares rise or fall between the time of writing and July 20.\nIs It Better To Buy Before Or After A Stock Split?\nIn theory, a stock split does not change the value of the underlying company; it just leads to the company being divided into more individual shares. There are, however, some psychological factors at play that can lead to share price performance being influenced by stock splits. First, shares may appear cheaper at first sight for those that do not look at metrics such as the earnings multiple, which may incite buying. On top of that, some investors seem to erroneously believe that buying shares before a stock split will somehow get them a larger part of the company once the stock split happens, which is, of course, not true. Investors will end up owning more shares than they originally purchased pre-split, but those shares won't amount to a greater ownership of the company.\nStock splits may also influence the likelihood of a company getting into an index such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(NYSEARCA:DIA), which could then lead to additional demand from ETFs that replicate the index. In that way, a stock split can lead to higher share prices eventually, as the supply/demand ratio changes.\nIn the past, when fractional share buying was not available for most investors, stock splits also could lead to more buying due to making shares more affordable for some investors. In today's environment, where fractional share buying is ubiquitous, that is not really the case any longer, however.\nLast year, two major companies, Tesla and Apple, split their stocks, which led to increased buying in both companies:\nData by YCharts\nBetween July 30, 2020, and August 31, 2020, the date of the announcement of the upcoming stock split and the date of the actual stock split, Apple's shares rose rapidly, easily outperforming the market. That was likely not solely the result of the announced stock split, but it seems likely that this played a role in Apple's share price surge during that one-month period. In the month following the stock split, AAPL saw its shares decline by 12%.\nTesla, meanwhile, saw its shares rise by an incredible 81% in the time frame between the announcement of the stock split and the actual split, which was about half a month. Tesla's shares also declined by a little more than 10% during the month following the actual stock split. One could thus, it seems, make a case that buying shares of major companies when they announce a stock split and selling shares when the split happens could make sense. There is, however, no guarantee for this scenario to play out every time, and it is very much possible that the two examples above are outliers that are not representative of overall stock performance prior to and following a stock split.\nNVDA has seen its shares rise by 15%+ since the company announced its current stock split, thus possibly, we could see a similar pattern to what happened with Tesla and Apple, although at a less pronounced rate. NVDA has outperformed the broad market following the split announcement, and that may at least partially be the result of traders piling into the stock hoping for short-term gains.\nA1996 studyby David Ikenberry of Rice University shows that, at least in the 1980s and 1990s, stock splits oftentimes resulted in outperformancefollowingthe stock split. The stock price gains seen by TSLA and AAPL immediatelypriorto the stock split may be outliers.\nOverall, we can thus summarize that stock splits do not impact the underlying value of the company. Due to psychological factors, however, there may be irrational price movements in a stock's price prior to or following a stock split. Buying based on expectations of such movements is a strategy I would avoid, however, as it can't be foreseen whether these price moves do really materialize. Stock investments should, I believe, primarily be driven by factors such as growth, valuation, dividends, etc.\nIs NVIDIA Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nI wouldn't buy or sell based on news around a stock split alone, thus whether one wants to invest in NVIDIA is a question that I would approach from another side. Is the growth strong enough to justify paying a 50x earnings multiple?\nData by YCharts\nNVDA is currently not only trading at a premium to most of its peers, but shares are also trading at a premium relative to how they were valued in the past. This is despite the fact that NVIDIA is a much larger company today than it was 5 or 10 years ago. Due to the fact that the law of large numbers will likely result in growth rates that are lower than what NVIDIA has delivered in the past, it seems questionable whether it's sensible for NVIDIA to bemoreexpensive than it used to be.\nNevertheless, since NVIDIA is experiencing very healthy growth still, and will continue to grow in the coming years, returns don't have to be bad. A while ago I laid out a scenario that results in ashare price of around $1,200for NVIDIA in 2027, which would equate to annual returns of around 7% from today's price -- not bad at all, but significantly less than what NVIDIA delivered in the past. In that scenario, NVIDIA grows its EPS to around $38 over the next six years, or by around 140% versus current estimates for 2021. I also calculated with an earnings multiple of around 30, which is much closer to how NVIDIA's shares were historically valued, compared to the current valuation. One can, of course, argue whether my growth estimates are too high or too low, but I found this to be a solid base case scenario. Using that price target to gauge whether NVIDIA is attractive today, I'd say shares are not a bad holding at all, but the return outlook does not convince me to enter a position here. If shares fell back to the $500 level, where they traded just a couple of months ago, the story would be a very different one, however -- at that point, buying could lead to compelling long-term returns.\nTakeaway\nNVIDIA will split its shares soon, but that alone is not a good reason to buy shares. TSLA and AAPL have seen their shares underperform following the stock split, at least for a while, and the same may happen for NVIDIA, although there is no guarantee for that. In the long run, i.e. over several years, stock splits tend to correlate with an above-average performance, but again, there is no guarantee that this will happen here.\nDue to the above-average valuation and due to the fact that shares trade at a premium to the analyst price target, I wouldn't buy shares here, despite NVIDIA's compelling growth outlook. If shares give back some of their gains from 2021, buying into a position could lead to attractive long-term returns, however.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":177925568,"gmtCreate":1627177216654,"gmtModify":1703485050613,"author":{"id":"3573347217115205","authorId":"3573347217115205","name":"TayYZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573347217115205","authorIdStr":"3573347217115205"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/177925568","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV 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