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Malcolmdjjd
2021-02-10
Gghjj
Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?
Malcolmdjjd
2021-02-10
Cul
Musk's bitcoin bet fuels gains in companies already invested
Malcolmdjjd
2021-02-09
Cool
Thoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades
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Gghjj","listText":" Gghjj","text":"Gghjj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381102037","repostId":"1117067138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117067138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612938414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117067138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 14:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117067138","media":"DollarCollapse","summary":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980","content":"<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.</p><p>But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”</p><p>When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.</p><p><b>Way too much money</b></p><p>Most bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.</p><p>So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d7c5d7599587e83804628427877519b\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:</p><p><b>Fixed income</b></p><p>The bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39bd37dba530db68fa732d5c32f5e0ff\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb9f3e80eda0017e7c7d5ba875d1f10c\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.</p><p><b>Stocks, of course</b></p><p>The most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.</p><p>Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a5caecbf7ce046db1c638dc9e5c11f\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.</p><p><b>Housing</b></p><p>This one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,<i>all that money has to go somewhere</i>, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56444887115ea248df937ddba049b806\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”</p><p><b>Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?</b></p><p>Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a13760b1210cc61eda0c288bef17b5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e88fe38793194d9d2271f81a267410\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”</p><p><b>As for moral hazard …</b>A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgages<i>and</i>AAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.</p><p>Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:</p><p><b>SPACs</b></p><p>These are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/254ec67bbdf4e3ad98aab47a10003289\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Rock star money managers</b></p><p>In typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.</p><p>The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4ce2eab005d8a3e1d80c8331dde6a6b\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be61b944e4c2d2948db8e320bafa07\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>High-tech daytraders</b>This list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.</p><p><b>Mutually-exclusive solutions</b></p><p>So here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.</p><p>What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.</p><p>Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”</p>","source":"lsy1612938392079","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The Biggest Financial Bubble Ever?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 14:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link><strong>DollarCollapse</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.dollarcollapse.com/biggest-financial-bubble-hell-yes/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117067138","content_text":"If you’re over 40 you’ve lived through at least three epic financial bubbles: junk bonds in the 1980s, tech stocks in the 1990s, and housing in the 2000s. Each was spectacular in its own way, and each threatened to take down the whole financial system when it burst.But they pale next to what’s happening today. Where those past bubbles were sector-specific, which is to say the mania and resulting carnage occurred mostly within one asset class, today’s bubble is spread across, well, pretty much everything – hence the term “everything bubble.”When this one pops there won’t be a lot of hiding places.Way too much moneyMost bubbles start when an influx of outside cash sends the price of something up dramatically. This captures the imagination of the broader investing public and the process takes on a life of its own, culminating in an orgy of bad decisions and eventually a wipe-out of the easy fortunes made on the way up.So to understand the everything bubble, let’s start at the beginning with that influx of outside money. This time it’s coming from the Federal Reserve in what can only be described as the mother of all print runs. M2, a medium-broad measure of the US money supply, has more than tripled so far in this century, and lately the arc has gone vertical, rising by nearly a third in just the past year.All this extra money has to go somewhere, so no surprise that it’s flowing in lots of different directions. Among the recipients:Fixed incomeThe bond and money markets, made up of instruments that pay interest, are in the aggregate far bigger than the world’s stock markets. And they’ve been booming, with interest rates falling steadily for four straight decades. Since bond prices are the reciprocal of bond yields, the next chart can be read as an epic bull market in bonds, one which has gained steam in the past year as massive currency creation has forced fixed income investors (who have to invest new cash somehow) to buy bonds regardless of what they yield.To further illustrate how uniquely dysfunctional the world’s bond markets have become, here’s a chart going back to the 1300s showing that today’s rates aren’t just low by modern standards, but are the lowest in human history. Which is another way of saying today’s bond bubble dwarfs anything anywhere ever.The hopeless position in which pension funds and retirees find themselves is summed up in the following headline:Junk buyers desperate for debt are pressing companies to borrow.Stocks, of courseThe most obvious bubbles happen in stocks, because “the market” gets top billing in both the financial media and the psyches of investors. And after a long, slow slog out of the depths of the Great Recession, US stocks have in the past couple of years blown through all previous valuation records. That’s right, this market is now a bigger bubble than those of 1929 and 1999, and it’s still going strong.Pretty much any popular stock valuation indicator backs up this assertion, but the most dramatic is probably the “Buffet Indicator,” so named because legendary investor Warren Buffet uses it to decide how to allocate his billions. It’s also easy to understand: chart the aggregate market capitalization of all US stocks against GDP and there you are. When stocks are low versus GDP, they’re underappreciated and undervalued; when high compared to GDP they’re overvalued. Today they’re higher than ever before, including just before the last two major bear markets.Want some other bubbliscious indicators? Here you go: Right now, more stocks are trading at over 10 times sales than in 1999 at the height of the dot-com bubble. And the number of “zombie” companies, i.e., those that have to borrow to cover their existing debt service and will collapse if cut off from new credit, has never been higher.HousingThis one is a surprise because it was the epicenter of the last bubble, and very seldom does an asset class reinflate so quickly. But hey,all that money has to go somewhere, and houses are the American dream yadda yadda. In the past couple of years, home prices in many places have blown through their 2006 bubble highs, and are now accelerating. Note the hockey stick inflection at the far right of the following chart.As the hedge fund guy in The Big Short says after visiting Florida,“Yep, it’s a bubble.”Cryptocurrencies – this generation’s dot-coms?Cryptos weren’t around for any previous bubbles so their role in what’s coming isn’t yet knowable. What is clear is that they’re behaving like dot-com stocks in the 1990s, with bitcoin (think Amazon.com) soaring parabolically if erratically…… and hundreds of lesser coins with a wide variety of future prospects (think eBay, AOL, Pets.com) also soaring on a torrent of fiat currency rocket fuel. Here’s the second most valuable crypto:The conclusion: Even if cryptos end up dominating some future monetary system, their parabolic arcs in the here and now scream “bubble!”As for moral hazard …A true bubble is more than just soaring prices. It also features people behaving in ways that with hindsight will seem totally incomprehensible. Think previous bubbles’ daytraders and home flippers making fortunes doing things that experts normally find difficult. And recall the huge amounts of money that once poured into things that in normal times would have little appeal to rational investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (bonds that were somehow comprised of subprime mortgagesandAAA-rated) and mutual funds holding dot-com stocks with no earnings — and no realistic prospect thereof — are prominent examples from the recent past.Today’s world offers some even better examples of moral hazard, including:SPACsThese are companies that go public without assets or earnings or any of the other impedimenta typical of IPOs. You give them your money and they’ll figure out how to put it to work. Why? Because they’re geniuses who claim to have made fortunes in the past few years, and you apparently have way too much cash and no productive uses for it. There are evenSPAC ETFsthat offer exposure to the whole “sector.”Rock star money managersIn typical bubbles, a handful of money managers roll the dice on the bubble asset and win big. Bigger than big. They make ridiculous amounts of money and are hailed as geniuses and courted by reporters and politicians hoping to bask in their reflected glory. Then of course the bubble pops and the geniuses crash and burn along with their favorite speculations.The everything bubble’s supernova is the ARK Innovation ETF, run by hitherto obscure (and now household name)Cathie Wood. Her “innovation”? She loaded up on Tesla stock right before it embarked on an epic (and inexplicable) 1000% run that made it more valuable than the ten biggest carmakers on the planet combined.Wood is still long and strong Tesla in addition to many other prominent bubble assets, and will apparently use the torrent of money now pouring into her fund to roll the dice on an even bigger scale.High-tech daytradersThis list wouldn’t be complete without the Reddit/Robinhood traders who are having a ball chasing a wide variety of stocks straight up while tormenting hedge funds on the other side of those trades. SeeWhen Predator Becomes Prey.Mutually-exclusive solutionsSo here we are, with all the typical bubble pathologies on full display, but for multiple bubbles rather than just one. And a government determined to levitate all those bubbles simultaneously, even at the expense of rising inflation. See Jim Rickard’s latest,Hyperinflation Can Happen Much Faster Than You Think.What happens when one of these bubbles bursts? The others burst too, in short order. You can’t have an epic, systemically dangerous bust in one big sector and placid good times in all the others. Markets – now more interconnected than ever – simply don’t work that way.Meanwhile, the actions necessary to fix some of these bubbles are mutually exclusive. A stock market or housing bust requires much lower interest rates and bigger government deficits, while a currency crisis brought on by rising inflation requires higher interest rates and government spending cuts. Let everything blow up at once and there will be literally no fixing it. And the “everything bubble” will become the “everything bust.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381106233,"gmtCreate":1612940451622,"gmtModify":1704876248219,"author":{"id":"3573564869281188","authorId":"3573564869281188","name":"Malcolmdjjd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0645dbdd8df0bbe7788a6fd8d53369f6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573564869281188","authorIdStr":"3573564869281188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cul","listText":"Cul","text":"Cul","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381106233","repostId":"1154979914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154979914","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1612937845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154979914?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-10 14:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk's bitcoin bet fuels gains in companies already invested","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154979914","media":"Reuters","summary":"Shares of companies that have invested in bitcoin have vastly outperformed on Wall Street in 2021 an","content":"<p>Shares of companies that have invested in bitcoin have vastly outperformed on Wall Street in 2021 and are extending their gains thanks to Tesla’s $1.5 billion bet on the soaring digital currency.</p>\n<p>The price of bitcoin hit a record high over $48,000 on Tuesday in a two-day surge after Tesla said on Monday that it had bought the digital currency and would soon accept it as a form of payment for cars.</p>\n<p>A handful of bitcoin-related companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges were also buoyed by the disclosure that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a fan of cryptocurrencies, added bitcoin to the electric car maker’s balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s bitcoin purchase amounts to a minor bet for the fast-growing electric car company with an $800 billion stock market value. However, it bolstered the digital currency’s emerging credentials as a mainstream financial asset.</p>\n<p>Driven in part by interest from institutional investors, the price of bitcoin has quadrupled in the past four months, surging far beyond record highs set in 2017. Some investors view it a hedge against inflation.</p>\n<p>Tesla gained after disclosing the investment on Monday, but dipped 1.6% on Tuesday, leaving its gain in 2021 at 20%, compared to the S&P 500’s 4% rise.</p>\n<p>Companies with much more significant exposures to bitcoin in proportion to their overall stock market value than Tesla have also rallied following Tesla’s disclosure, increasing already strong stock gains driven by the cryptocurrency’s recent rally.</p>\n<p>MicroStrategy, whose CEO Michael Saylor is an avid bitcoin bull, surged 22% on Tuesday, bringing its gain this week to over 50%, and it has surged over 200% so far in 2021. The business intelligence software company has bought about 71,079 bitcoins, now worth over $3 billion and equivalent to over a quarter of its $11.8 billion stock market value.</p>\n<p>Canadian financial technology firm Mogo, which in December said it would invest up to 1.5 million Canadian dollars in bitcoin, jumped 45% on Tuesday, bringing its gain since Tesla’s announcement to 85% and giving it a stock market value of $318 million.</p>\n<p>Payments company Square dipped almost 1%, leaving its 2021 gain at 19%. In October, Square said it bought 4,709 bitcoins for about $50 million, amounting to about 1% of its total assets at the end of the second quarter of 2020. Those bitcoins are now worth over $200 million.</p>\n<p>Marathon Patent Group, a bitcoin mining company that in January announced it bought nearly 4,900 bitcoins for $150 million, has jumped over 60% this week and is up 260% year to date.</p>\n<p>PayPal Holdings joined the cryptocurrency market in October, allowing customers to buy, sell and hold bitcoin and other virtual coins using the U.S. digital payments company’s online wallets. Its stock has surged 21% in 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk's bitcoin bet fuels gains in companies already invested</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk's bitcoin bet fuels gains in companies already invested\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-10 14:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of companies that have invested in bitcoin have vastly outperformed on Wall Street in 2021 and are extending their gains thanks to Tesla’s $1.5 billion bet on the soaring digital currency.</p>\n<p>The price of bitcoin hit a record high over $48,000 on Tuesday in a two-day surge after Tesla said on Monday that it had bought the digital currency and would soon accept it as a form of payment for cars.</p>\n<p>A handful of bitcoin-related companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges were also buoyed by the disclosure that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a fan of cryptocurrencies, added bitcoin to the electric car maker’s balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s bitcoin purchase amounts to a minor bet for the fast-growing electric car company with an $800 billion stock market value. However, it bolstered the digital currency’s emerging credentials as a mainstream financial asset.</p>\n<p>Driven in part by interest from institutional investors, the price of bitcoin has quadrupled in the past four months, surging far beyond record highs set in 2017. Some investors view it a hedge against inflation.</p>\n<p>Tesla gained after disclosing the investment on Monday, but dipped 1.6% on Tuesday, leaving its gain in 2021 at 20%, compared to the S&P 500’s 4% rise.</p>\n<p>Companies with much more significant exposures to bitcoin in proportion to their overall stock market value than Tesla have also rallied following Tesla’s disclosure, increasing already strong stock gains driven by the cryptocurrency’s recent rally.</p>\n<p>MicroStrategy, whose CEO Michael Saylor is an avid bitcoin bull, surged 22% on Tuesday, bringing its gain this week to over 50%, and it has surged over 200% so far in 2021. The business intelligence software company has bought about 71,079 bitcoins, now worth over $3 billion and equivalent to over a quarter of its $11.8 billion stock market value.</p>\n<p>Canadian financial technology firm Mogo, which in December said it would invest up to 1.5 million Canadian dollars in bitcoin, jumped 45% on Tuesday, bringing its gain since Tesla’s announcement to 85% and giving it a stock market value of $318 million.</p>\n<p>Payments company Square dipped almost 1%, leaving its 2021 gain at 19%. In October, Square said it bought 4,709 bitcoins for about $50 million, amounting to about 1% of its total assets at the end of the second quarter of 2020. Those bitcoins are now worth over $200 million.</p>\n<p>Marathon Patent Group, a bitcoin mining company that in January announced it bought nearly 4,900 bitcoins for $150 million, has jumped over 60% this week and is up 260% year to date.</p>\n<p>PayPal Holdings joined the cryptocurrency market in October, allowing customers to buy, sell and hold bitcoin and other virtual coins using the U.S. digital payments company’s online wallets. Its stock has surged 21% in 2021.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154979914","content_text":"Shares of companies that have invested in bitcoin have vastly outperformed on Wall Street in 2021 and are extending their gains thanks to Tesla’s $1.5 billion bet on the soaring digital currency.\nThe price of bitcoin hit a record high over $48,000 on Tuesday in a two-day surge after Tesla said on Monday that it had bought the digital currency and would soon accept it as a form of payment for cars.\nA handful of bitcoin-related companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges were also buoyed by the disclosure that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a fan of cryptocurrencies, added bitcoin to the electric car maker’s balance sheet.\nTesla’s bitcoin purchase amounts to a minor bet for the fast-growing electric car company with an $800 billion stock market value. However, it bolstered the digital currency’s emerging credentials as a mainstream financial asset.\nDriven in part by interest from institutional investors, the price of bitcoin has quadrupled in the past four months, surging far beyond record highs set in 2017. Some investors view it a hedge against inflation.\nTesla gained after disclosing the investment on Monday, but dipped 1.6% on Tuesday, leaving its gain in 2021 at 20%, compared to the S&P 500’s 4% rise.\nCompanies with much more significant exposures to bitcoin in proportion to their overall stock market value than Tesla have also rallied following Tesla’s disclosure, increasing already strong stock gains driven by the cryptocurrency’s recent rally.\nMicroStrategy, whose CEO Michael Saylor is an avid bitcoin bull, surged 22% on Tuesday, bringing its gain this week to over 50%, and it has surged over 200% so far in 2021. The business intelligence software company has bought about 71,079 bitcoins, now worth over $3 billion and equivalent to over a quarter of its $11.8 billion stock market value.\nCanadian financial technology firm Mogo, which in December said it would invest up to 1.5 million Canadian dollars in bitcoin, jumped 45% on Tuesday, bringing its gain since Tesla’s announcement to 85% and giving it a stock market value of $318 million.\nPayments company Square dipped almost 1%, leaving its 2021 gain at 19%. In October, Square said it bought 4,709 bitcoins for about $50 million, amounting to about 1% of its total assets at the end of the second quarter of 2020. Those bitcoins are now worth over $200 million.\nMarathon Patent Group, a bitcoin mining company that in January announced it bought nearly 4,900 bitcoins for $150 million, has jumped over 60% this week and is up 260% year to date.\nPayPal Holdings joined the cryptocurrency market in October, allowing customers to buy, sell and hold bitcoin and other virtual coins using the U.S. digital payments company’s online wallets. Its stock has surged 21% in 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383883413,"gmtCreate":1612863940032,"gmtModify":1704875094428,"author":{"id":"3573564869281188","authorId":"3573564869281188","name":"Malcolmdjjd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0645dbdd8df0bbe7788a6fd8d53369f6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573564869281188","authorIdStr":"3573564869281188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383883413","repostId":"1183096042","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183096042","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612862635,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183096042?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:23","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Thoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183096042","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin is not backed by anything and has no intrinsic value.\nIt is not a means to pay taxe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Bitcoin is not backed by anything and has no intrinsic value.</li>\n <li>It is not a means to pay taxes and bank debt which is what creates inherent demand for so-called fiat currencies.</li>\n <li>Recessions and high unemployment would be incurable because supply is fixed. There is no way to stimulate under a BTC standard.</li>\n <li>BTC does not own the blockchain technology, meaning there are no barriers to entry.</li>\n <li>A central bank digital reserve currency (USD replacement) would be more like an SDR or a weighted basket of fiat currencies, not BTC.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>\"Fiat\" currency such as the euro, yen, RMB or USD is backed by debt and the tax liability to the government. Therefore, there is in fact intrinsic value in a USD, unlike cryptocurrencies. What I’m saying is quite simple. A USD has value because someone out there needs it to pay taxes and debt. This creates inherent demand. Bitcoin does not have that.</p>\n<p>It also creates policy problems. A BTC standard is essentially saying no matter how high unemployment rises or how bad a recession gets, there is nothing that can be done about it because supply is fixed. This is a similar problem to that of a gold standard.</p>\n<p>BTC is going to struggle to find wide adoption as a means of exchange when the value of it or demand for it tomorrow is so unknown. Only someone as out there as Musk is willing to give you a car for BTC. The rational person would say no, because there isn't any almost \"promised\" demand backing it.</p>\n<p>So it’s the blockchain many would say. But bitcoin doesn’t own the technology. IBM or Google or JPM can just make their own blockchain. A central bank digital reserve currency would run on its own blockchain and not be bitcoin. It would be something more akin to an SDR. The real story with BTC though, is the problems with a USD-reserve-based global monetary system because global economic health becomes contingent on USD FX value, which is where we find ourselves today.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9af54455081190a1c61a48745343eb49\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"></p>\n<p>Rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD have repeatedly short-circuited any global economic recovery. This makes me severely question the whole idea of the global reflation trade and I am concerned more about a deflationary downturn and bust in risk assets emanating from first, a rise in real (inflation-adjusted) UST yields and second, a spillover into emerging markets equities and currencies. Outflows and speculative attacks on emerging market currencies would be very detrimental to their economies, put their central banks in an extremely difficultlose-losepolicy position, and would worsen their USD-denominated corporate debt burden.</p>\n<p>We are in the midst of the 3rd largest bond sell-off since (including) the 2013 taper tantrum. I've argued for months short treasuries are a one way trade and markets would soon expose the untenable position. The reason is regardless of your inflationary or deflationary view, treasuries are still a short on a rise in inflation compensation premiums (scenario 1) or aswitch to the USDas we saw in March 2020 and largefunding gapbetween US government bond issuance and Federal Reserve purchases (scenario 2). This puts the Federal reserve in a difficult position because more QE would worsen scenario 1. And not increasing treasury purchases would worsen scenario 2. They simply cannot realistically keep yields down despite their intention to. Increased QE would also risk larger asset price bubbles, more manic speculative activity and a worse potential drawdown. More QE may be viewed as a solution, but it also would increase the magnitude of the problem.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/376034333214f39747e9507a370681a8\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Robin Brooks. IIF.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdf4d7a540ce1f18d0450dc02b16c70\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>Source: John Hussman</span></p>\n<p>Employment gains have been rolling over and losing steam, which means there is still significant slack in the economy, making a short-run inflationary outcome unlikely in my opinion. This lack of inflation combined with quickly rising yields pushes up the real-UST-yield adjusted for actual inflation and expectations. When real yields rise, it increases the allure of USD in global FX markets. Any “big” inflation print should be viewed from a m/m perspective, not y/y because we’re coming off a low base from Spring 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8a6444fd2293b44a63475557ae9b0e\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"707\"></p>\n<p>This causes outflows from emerging market economies and collapses carry trades into EM FX which puts pressure on policy makers to either raise rates to defend the currency and risk weakening asset prices and worsening growth. Or an emerging market central bank could let rates fall and watch their currency go into free-fall depreciation with stag-flationary pressures building. Brazil is a good example of this where traders are pilinginto tradesthat the Central Bank of Brazil will raise rates despite a weak economy in order to defend the very poorly performing BRL. By pricing in this rate hike markets are dictating policy, rather than the other way around, which is becoming more and more common.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThoughts On Bitcoin And Reflation Trades\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 17:23 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404479-thoughts-on-bitcoin-and-reflation-trades><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBitcoin is not backed by anything and has no intrinsic value.\nIt is not a means to pay taxes and bank debt which is what creates inherent demand for so-called fiat currencies.\nRecessions and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404479-thoughts-on-bitcoin-and-reflation-trades\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4404479-thoughts-on-bitcoin-and-reflation-trades","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1183096042","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin is not backed by anything and has no intrinsic value.\nIt is not a means to pay taxes and bank debt which is what creates inherent demand for so-called fiat currencies.\nRecessions and high unemployment would be incurable because supply is fixed. There is no way to stimulate under a BTC standard.\nBTC does not own the blockchain technology, meaning there are no barriers to entry.\nA central bank digital reserve currency (USD replacement) would be more like an SDR or a weighted basket of fiat currencies, not BTC.\n\n\"Fiat\" currency such as the euro, yen, RMB or USD is backed by debt and the tax liability to the government. Therefore, there is in fact intrinsic value in a USD, unlike cryptocurrencies. What I’m saying is quite simple. A USD has value because someone out there needs it to pay taxes and debt. This creates inherent demand. Bitcoin does not have that.\nIt also creates policy problems. A BTC standard is essentially saying no matter how high unemployment rises or how bad a recession gets, there is nothing that can be done about it because supply is fixed. This is a similar problem to that of a gold standard.\nBTC is going to struggle to find wide adoption as a means of exchange when the value of it or demand for it tomorrow is so unknown. Only someone as out there as Musk is willing to give you a car for BTC. The rational person would say no, because there isn't any almost \"promised\" demand backing it.\nSo it’s the blockchain many would say. But bitcoin doesn’t own the technology. IBM or Google or JPM can just make their own blockchain. A central bank digital reserve currency would run on its own blockchain and not be bitcoin. It would be something more akin to an SDR. The real story with BTC though, is the problems with a USD-reserve-based global monetary system because global economic health becomes contingent on USD FX value, which is where we find ourselves today.\n\nRising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger USD have repeatedly short-circuited any global economic recovery. This makes me severely question the whole idea of the global reflation trade and I am concerned more about a deflationary downturn and bust in risk assets emanating from first, a rise in real (inflation-adjusted) UST yields and second, a spillover into emerging markets equities and currencies. Outflows and speculative attacks on emerging market currencies would be very detrimental to their economies, put their central banks in an extremely difficultlose-losepolicy position, and would worsen their USD-denominated corporate debt burden.\nWe are in the midst of the 3rd largest bond sell-off since (including) the 2013 taper tantrum. I've argued for months short treasuries are a one way trade and markets would soon expose the untenable position. The reason is regardless of your inflationary or deflationary view, treasuries are still a short on a rise in inflation compensation premiums (scenario 1) or aswitch to the USDas we saw in March 2020 and largefunding gapbetween US government bond issuance and Federal Reserve purchases (scenario 2). This puts the Federal reserve in a difficult position because more QE would worsen scenario 1. And not increasing treasury purchases would worsen scenario 2. They simply cannot realistically keep yields down despite their intention to. Increased QE would also risk larger asset price bubbles, more manic speculative activity and a worse potential drawdown. More QE may be viewed as a solution, but it also would increase the magnitude of the problem.\nSource: Robin Brooks. IIF.\nSource: John Hussman\nEmployment gains have been rolling over and losing steam, which means there is still significant slack in the economy, making a short-run inflationary outcome unlikely in my opinion. This lack of inflation combined with quickly rising yields pushes up the real-UST-yield adjusted for actual inflation and expectations. When real yields rise, it increases the allure of USD in global FX markets. Any “big” inflation print should be viewed from a m/m perspective, not y/y because we’re coming off a low base from Spring 2020.\n\nThis causes outflows from emerging market economies and collapses carry trades into EM FX which puts pressure on policy makers to either raise rates to defend the currency and risk weakening asset prices and worsening growth. Or an emerging market central bank could let rates fall and watch their currency go into free-fall depreciation with stag-flationary pressures building. Brazil is a good example of this where traders are pilinginto tradesthat the Central Bank of Brazil will raise rates despite a weak economy in order to defend the very poorly performing BRL. By pricing in this rate hike markets are dictating policy, rather than the other way around, which is becoming more and more common.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
