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Willax714
2021-04-08
this is your grandmother momentum？
Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead
Willax714
2021-03-10
yea
Tech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”. I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals. I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323241808,"gmtCreate":1615349127404,"gmtModify":1704781506538,"author":{"id":"3573596992194654","authorId":"3573596992194654","name":"Willax714","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e456fc16f406c29acd818942bbe815","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573596992194654","authorIdStr":"3573596992194654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yea","listText":"yea","text":"yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323241808","repostId":"1140398434","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140398434","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615349081,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140398434?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 12:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140398434","media":"cnbc","summary":"Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied mor","content":"<div>\n<p>Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 12:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1140398434","content_text":"Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said recent weakness afflicted highly valued stocks, not just tech.\n\"It's not tech per se. It's expensive stocks, and some of those happen to be in the tech bucket. There's also expensive stocks in biotech, and there's expensive stocks even in nontech groups. And what's really changed in the last two or three months is that the bond market has woken up to the idea that actually the back end is going to move out, and so the narrative three months ago was that 'rates can't go up, they won't go up, the Fed won't let it happen.' But here we are, 1.5%, 1.6% [for the 10-year]. And so now the equity market is accepting this idea that it was inevitable. And we're adjusting. So I don't think this is the end of the bull market or the end of tech stocks per se, but it was an adjustment that was very necessary.\"\nDavid Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said tech is still a longer-term bet.\n\"The issue really is what's happening on the margin. We have huge fiscal stimulus coming, likely to be signed in the next day or so. We're likely to have very significant improvement in the vaccination process, more than 2 million people a day. So those things are about nearer-term activity, and that really does benefit an improvement of business fundamentals for some of the near-term, more cyclical-related stocks in the recovery trade, if you will. So if you want to think about longer term, sure, technology, secular growth, those are definitely tapping into some of the evolutions in what's happening in the economy, but near term, tactically it's likely to be cyclical.\"\nJim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, broke down the bond market.\n\"We have been in a 40-year bull market in bonds. Almost no one living on Wall Street today has any recollection of interest rates rising. We are predisposed to assume that rates go down, that seems natural. ... They are remarkably low when adjusted for inflation. As measured since 1962, as a saver, you'd get over 2.5 almost percentage points of real inflation-adjusted yield by owning the 10-year Treasury. Today you get exactly no real interest. ... So the value proposition for the 10-year Treasury, to me, is absolutely barren. There's nothing to be said as an investment for them.\"\nGabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said it all comes back to earnings.\n\"I think one of the points we make is we're coming into this year with a much better outlook but with stretched valuations. So returns this year are really going to come from the change in earnings, and it's really the cyclical parts of the market that will see the biggest delta in earnings this year versus last year. Those are the kind of sectors that can absorb rising yields, that can really tap into this improvement in the economy. So just an example, financials will see a 40 percentage-point change in earnings, consumer discretionary 70 percentage points. If we look at health care, only 2 percentage points. Tech only 10%. So that's the reason why these rising bond yields related to rising growth benefits these more cyclical parts of the market.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":341718240,"gmtCreate":1617855375980,"gmtModify":1704703990372,"author":{"id":"3573596992194654","authorId":"3573596992194654","name":"Willax714","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e456fc16f406c29acd818942bbe815","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573596992194654","authorIdStr":"3573596992194654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is your grandmother momentum？","listText":"this is your grandmother momentum？","text":"this is your grandmother momentum？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/341718240","repostId":"1193572308","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193572308","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617843930,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193572308?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-08 09:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193572308","media":"cnbc","summary":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next ","content":"<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Op-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOp-ed: Boost to tech stocks will not last, and more pain is ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-08 09:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/07/op-ed-there-is-more-pain-ahead-for-tech-stocks-jeff-mills.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1193572308","content_text":"Investors should be able to take advantage of bullish momentum in tech stocks for at least the next couple of months.\nIn my last post on the subject on Feb. 4, the takeaway was \"tech's reign of relative dominance has come to an end.\" The tech sector as measured by theXLKETF went on to trail theS&P 500by about 6% over the next month, and growth trailed value by over 14% during that same period.\nThis is not meant to be a victory lap; far from it. A month of underperformance hardly meets the criteria for a loss of dominance. Further, the weakness of tech and growth stocks has started to reverse of late, clawing back about half of that initial underperformance.\nWith stocks likeApple,Facebook, andAmazontrading down to their 200-day moving averages, what's next? Is tech ready to make a comeback, or is this just a pause along the road of further underperformance? I believe it is the latter.\nThis isn't your grandfather's momentum\nIn recent years, technology stocks have been synonymous with momentum. Today, tech accounts for nearly 35% of the widely trackediShares Momentum ETF (MTUM). This is about to change.\nMTUM will rebalance during the last week of May, and the weighting to technology will likely be cut in half. Estimates forecast thatfinancials,consumer discretionary,andindustrialswill carry the largest weights, and with that, additional flows will likely be attracted to those sectors.\nThis simple reconstitution is yet another catalyst for further underperformance from technology. Those that want exposure to momentum, whether through a passive ETF or an actively managed strategy, will by rule be owning less tech and more value. In fact, given tech's heavy weighting in most indexes, every 1% rotation out of \"growth & defensive\" sectors is nearly a 3% increase into \"cyclical\" sectors.\nValuation difference: hardly a dent\nAlthough the tech sector’s underperformance in 2021 has been noteworthy, it hasn’t made a dent in the historically wide valuation difference between growth and value stocks.\nLet’s not forget that over the past 10-years, growth has outperformed value by an average of 7%per year. I think many investors still haven’t come to terms with the idea that value can outperform for an extended period.\nAs I wrote in February, “The problem is that current prices [for growth stocks] necessitate a level of future growth that will be very difficult to realize”. I still believe this to be the case. For example,Zoomis down 43% from its all-time high, but the stock still trades at 84x next year’s earnings.Teslais similar, down 23% from its high, but still trades at 145x forward earnings.\nValue’s outperformance this year has only driven the price-to-earnings premium in the tech-heavy growth index back to 2-standard deviations above normal. We have a long way to go before the valuation gap normalizes.\nInterest rates: a (short-lived) opportunity for tech\nInterest rate movements have been the primary driver of relative performance between growth and value.\nDays when interest rates are rising, growth and technology struggle relative to value and cyclicals. I believe it is likely that interest rates drift sideways to lower in the coming weeks, allowing oversold conditions in certain tech names to adjust.\nFirst, the interest rate differential between treasuries and many international government bonds is starting to attract foreign buyers to U.S. debt. European and Japanese buyers can earn an additional 1.2% by purchasing 10-year U.S. government debt versus 10-year bunds or JGBs, even after adjustments for currency risk.\nThis increased demand may serve to compress U.S. rates for a period. Additionally, sentiment has become extreme regarding U.S. treasury bonds — usually a good contra indicator. The percentage of bearish bond investors (betting rates will rise) is in the 90thpercentile, and the 6-month rate of change in the 10-year yield is in the 97thpercentile.\nA normalization of sentiment would be another headwind to rising rates in the near term. With several large tech names at technical support, and investment flows into technology (as measured by XLK) weak, we could be due for a near-term reversal in performance leadership as the momentum higher in interest rates wanes.\nHowever, it’s unlikely to last. As foreign economies begin to ramp up vaccination efforts and their economies more fully reopen, their interest rates should rise as those bond markets anticipate higher growth and inflation.\nThe interest rate gap should narrow, making U.S. debt relatively less attractive to foreign buyers – less demand, lower prices, higher rates for treasuries. Further, the Federal Reserve has yet to push back against rising long-term interest rates, and the10-year yielddoesn’t hit technical resistance until to the 2.0% to 2.25% range.\nTaken together, U.S. rates should resume higher as we move into the second half of the year, creating a persistent headwind for tech’s relative performance.\nIt’s not all bad\nIt is important to keep in mind that this is relative performance story … not one of technology crashing and burning. The stock market today remains remarkably broad, with 96% of the stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving averages. The last time we saw a reading this high was late-2009. And even thoughtechnologyhas lagged, 90% of tech stocks are in an uptrend.\nWe know from history that rates and stocks can rise together. Even rates and technology stocks can rise together (see 2013 as an example). However, in the game of relative investment performance, my view remains that tech continues to fall behind.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323241808,"gmtCreate":1615349127404,"gmtModify":1704781506538,"author":{"id":"3573596992194654","authorId":"3573596992194654","name":"Willax714","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e456fc16f406c29acd818942bbe815","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573596992194654","authorIdStr":"3573596992194654"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yea","listText":"yea","text":"yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/323241808","repostId":"1140398434","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140398434","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615349081,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140398434?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 12:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140398434","media":"cnbc","summary":"Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied mor","content":"<div>\n<p>Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech bounces back — Here's what analysts say investors should watch\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 12:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/tech-stocks-bounce-back-what-experts-say-investors-should-watch.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1140398434","content_text":"Tech stocks led a market rallyon Tuesday asbond yields declined.\nThe tech-heavyNasdaq 100rallied more than 4% in its best day since early November.\nHere's what market experts said about the move.\nMike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said recent weakness afflicted highly valued stocks, not just tech.\n\"It's not tech per se. It's expensive stocks, and some of those happen to be in the tech bucket. There's also expensive stocks in biotech, and there's expensive stocks even in nontech groups. And what's really changed in the last two or three months is that the bond market has woken up to the idea that actually the back end is going to move out, and so the narrative three months ago was that 'rates can't go up, they won't go up, the Fed won't let it happen.' But here we are, 1.5%, 1.6% [for the 10-year]. And so now the equity market is accepting this idea that it was inevitable. And we're adjusting. So I don't think this is the end of the bull market or the end of tech stocks per se, but it was an adjustment that was very necessary.\"\nDavid Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said tech is still a longer-term bet.\n\"The issue really is what's happening on the margin. We have huge fiscal stimulus coming, likely to be signed in the next day or so. We're likely to have very significant improvement in the vaccination process, more than 2 million people a day. So those things are about nearer-term activity, and that really does benefit an improvement of business fundamentals for some of the near-term, more cyclical-related stocks in the recovery trade, if you will. So if you want to think about longer term, sure, technology, secular growth, those are definitely tapping into some of the evolutions in what's happening in the economy, but near term, tactically it's likely to be cyclical.\"\nJim Grant, founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, broke down the bond market.\n\"We have been in a 40-year bull market in bonds. Almost no one living on Wall Street today has any recollection of interest rates rising. We are predisposed to assume that rates go down, that seems natural. ... They are remarkably low when adjusted for inflation. As measured since 1962, as a saver, you'd get over 2.5 almost percentage points of real inflation-adjusted yield by owning the 10-year Treasury. Today you get exactly no real interest. ... So the value proposition for the 10-year Treasury, to me, is absolutely barren. There's nothing to be said as an investment for them.\"\nGabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said it all comes back to earnings.\n\"I think one of the points we make is we're coming into this year with a much better outlook but with stretched valuations. So returns this year are really going to come from the change in earnings, and it's really the cyclical parts of the market that will see the biggest delta in earnings this year versus last year. Those are the kind of sectors that can absorb rising yields, that can really tap into this improvement in the economy. So just an example, financials will see a 40 percentage-point change in earnings, consumer discretionary 70 percentage points. If we look at health care, only 2 percentage points. Tech only 10%. So that's the reason why these rising bond yields related to rising growth benefits these more cyclical parts of the market.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
