Winson06 personal page - To The Moon

Winson06

Winson06

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2022-04-27

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Yes

2022-03-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh

2021-07-20

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the Mooooooon

2021-07-08

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Hodl or buy at discounted price

2021-06-18

Nice

1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple

2021-06-05

Great

Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods

2021-06-05

Hi

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider

2021-06-03

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$HODL HODL HODL HODL

2021-02-04

Well

AstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows

2021-02-04

Hmm

GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Huat ahhh","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019802495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178121107,"gmtCreate":1626792859209,"gmtModify":1703765362513,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the&nbsp;Mooooooon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the&nbsp;Mooooooon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the Mooooooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178121107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143014160,"gmtCreate":1625752464650,"gmtModify":1703747846811,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Hodl or buy at discounted price&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Hodl or buy at discounted price&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Hodl or buy at discounted price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143014160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166307601,"gmtCreate":1623990451903,"gmtModify":1703825903848,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166307601","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112066550,"gmtCreate":1622825966770,"gmtModify":1704192064956,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112066550","repostId":"1167651093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167651093?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>\n <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>\n <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>\n <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p>\n<p>Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p>\n<p>Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p>\n<p>We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p>\n<p><b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p>\n<p><b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p>\n<p>For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p>\n<p><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p>\n<p>It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p>\n<p>Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p>\n<p>Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p>\n<p>When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p>\n<p>As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping it all up</b></p>\n<p>Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112068520,"gmtCreate":1622825898660,"gmtModify":1704192063488,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112068520","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122373606?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? 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What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111331606,"gmtCreate":1622651762005,"gmtModify":1704188236258,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL HODL HODL HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL HODL HODL HODL","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$HODL HODL HODL HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111331606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576807236070433","authorId":"3576807236070433","authorIdStr":"3576807236070433","name":"_GOD_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7926464e49b85685a50f1e80f5ff8cd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576807236070433"},"content":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!","text":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!","html":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317907348,"gmtCreate":1612403646584,"gmtModify":1704870692957,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well","listText":"Well","text":"Well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317907348","repostId":"1197054568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197054568","pubTimestamp":1612343775,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197054568?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-03 17:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197054568","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford cor","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 17:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1197054568","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford found that the Covid-19 vaccine was 76% effective at preventing symptomatic infection for three months after a single dose.\nIn fact, the efficacy rate rose with a longer interval before the first and second doses.\nThe vaccine is also seen to lower transmission of the virus, a crucial factor in lifting lockdowns.\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy, according to the results of a new study.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford found that the Covid-19 vaccine was 76% effective at preventing symptomatic infection for three months after a single dose, and in fact that the efficacy rate rose with a longer interval before the first and second doses.\n“Vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 post vaccination was 76% ... and modelled analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3 month period,” the study, under review at The Lancet medical journal and published on Tuesday as a preprint, found.\nThe efficacy rate rose to 82.4% when there was at least a 12-week interval before the second dose. When the second dose was given less than six weeks after the first one, the efficacy rate was 54.9%.\n“These analyses show that higher vaccine efficacy is obtained with a longer interval between the first and second dose, and that a single dose of vaccine is highly efficacious in the first 90 days, providing further support for current policy,” the report said.\nThe U.K.’s current strategy is to vaccinate as many people as possible with a single dose first and to delay the second dose for up to 12 weeks; the idea being that a first dose provides at least some partial protection and allows more people to access the vaccines while they are in limited supply.\nThe decision to delay giving people a second, booster dose has provoked controversy, and some questioned whether it could lower the efficacy of the vaccine at preventing serious Covid-19 infection.\nHowever, the U.K.’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, supported the approach. The U.K. is also delaying the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, a move that the vaccine makers have warned against, arguing that there is no data to support a delay.\nThe study also provided important data on whether the vaccine reduces transmission of the virus, a previous unknown and a crucial question for policymakers looking to lift lockdown measures that have crippled the economy.\nBased on weekly swabs from volunteers in the U.K. study, it found a 67% reduction in transmission after the first dose of the vaccine.\nEffective strategy\nThis latest study supports the U.K. government’s decision, concluding that vaccination programs “aimed at vaccinating a large proportion of the population with a single dose, with a second dose given after a 3 month period, is an effective strategy for reducing disease, and may be the optimal for rollout of a pandemic vaccine when supplies are limited in the short term.”\nThe study used further data on ongoing clinical trials into the vaccine. A separate announcement from AstraZeneca on Wednesday showed that the vaccine also prevented serious illness from Covid-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalizations more than 22 days after the first dose.\nThe vaccine was approved by the U.K.’s drug regulator on Dec. 30 and, as a shot produced in Britain, makes up the bulk of the nation’s immunization program, which has been hailed as a success so far.\nThe U.K. is on track to have vaccinated its top four priority groups (the over-70s, residents and staff in elderly care homes, frontline health and social care workers and the clinically extremely vulnerable) numbering around 15 million people by mid-February.\nAs of Feb.1, over 9.6 million people had received a first dose of the vaccine, and just under 500,000 had received two doses, according to government data.\nProfessor Andrew Pollard, chief investigator of the Oxford vaccine trial, and co-author of the study, said “these new data provide an important verification of the interim data that was used by more than 25 regulators including the MHRA and EMA to grant the vaccine emergency use authorisation.”\n“It also supports the policy recommendation made by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for a 12-week prime-boost interval, as they look for the optimal approach to roll out, and reassures us that people are protected from 22 days after a single dose of the vaccine.”\nThe researchers also hope to report data regarding the new coronavirus variants in the coming days, and expect the findings to be broadly similar to those already reported by fellow vaccine developers: That the current vaccines do work against mutations of the virus.\nGermany, France and Sweden are currently not recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine to over-65s, saying there is not enough trial data on this age group. The vaccine maker and U.K. government have defended the jab, however, and say the data that is available shows it is safe and effective, with more analysis set to become available soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317904370,"gmtCreate":1612403539090,"gmtModify":1704870691505,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317904370","repostId":"1190569667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190569667","pubTimestamp":1612349733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190569667?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-03 18:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190569667","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% ju","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 18:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f99468960c8d559870f82a67747dd7","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1190569667","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week.\nGamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and it has lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\n\nGameStopshares gained 12% in premarket trade on Wednesday as the short squeeze fueled by retail traders on Reddit looks to revive itself following a steep decline.\nThe stock had been down by more than 11% earlier on Wednesday morning but swung into the black shortly after 5 a.m. ET.\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week. Gamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and ithas lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\nAMC Entertainment, another heavily shorted stock that was also targeted by Reddit traders, was up by around 4% in premarket trade.\nRobinhood and other retail trading appscontinue to limit some buying of a collection of stocks pursued by the Reddit thread. Many Wall Street hedge funds began short-covering toward the end of last week after taking significant losses in the squeeze.\nShort selling is a strategy in which investors borrow shares of a stock at a certain price on expectations that the market value will fall below that level when it’s time to pay for the borrowed shares. Buying back borrowed shares to close out a short position, whether for a profit or loss, is known as short-covering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9019802495,"gmtCreate":1648567372212,"gmtModify":1676534355376,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$TO THE MOON PLEASE!! Huat ahhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019802495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143014160,"gmtCreate":1625752464650,"gmtModify":1703747846811,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Hodl or buy at discounted price&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Hodl or buy at discounted price&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Hodl or buy at discounted price","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143014160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178121107,"gmtCreate":1626792859209,"gmtModify":1703765362513,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the&nbsp;Mooooooon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the&nbsp;Mooooooon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the Mooooooon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178121107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111331606,"gmtCreate":1622651762005,"gmtModify":1704188236258,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL HODL HODL HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>HODL HODL HODL HODL","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$HODL HODL HODL HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/111331606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576807236070433","authorId":"3576807236070433","authorIdStr":"3576807236070433","name":"_GOD_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7926464e49b85685a50f1e80f5ff8cd","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3576807236070433"},"content":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!","text":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!","html":"SERIOUS WARNING FROM GOD OF STOCK: EVERYONE SELL ALL YOUR AMC NOW BEFORE IT DROP DOWN TO 7. RUN FOIR YOUR LIFE NOW!!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112066550,"gmtCreate":1622825966770,"gmtModify":1704192064956,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112066550","repostId":"1167651093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167651093?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>\n <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>\n <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>\n <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p>\n<p>Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p>\n<p>Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p>\n<p>We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p>\n<p><b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p>\n<p><b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p>\n<p>We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p>\n<p>For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p>\n<p><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p>\n<p>It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p>\n<p>Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p>\n<p>Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p>\n<p>When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p>\n<p>As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping it all up</b></p>\n<p>Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166307601,"gmtCreate":1623990451903,"gmtModify":1703825903848,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166307601","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112068520,"gmtCreate":1622825898660,"gmtModify":1704192063488,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112068520","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122373606?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9087589979,"gmtCreate":1651022825310,"gmtModify":1676534836234,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Yes","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9087589979","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317907348,"gmtCreate":1612403646584,"gmtModify":1704870692957,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well","listText":"Well","text":"Well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317907348","repostId":"1197054568","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197054568","pubTimestamp":1612343775,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197054568?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-03 17:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197054568","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford cor","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAstraZeneca vaccine can slow the spread of Covid and delayed second dose works, Oxford data shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 17:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/delaying-second-astrazeneca-vaccine-dose-does-work-study-shows.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1197054568","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford found that the Covid-19 vaccine was 76% effective at preventing symptomatic infection for three months after a single dose.\nIn fact, the efficacy rate rose with a longer interval before the first and second doses.\nThe vaccine is also seen to lower transmission of the virus, a crucial factor in lifting lockdowns.\n\nThe U.K.’s decision to delay the second shot of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford coronavirus vaccine has been found to be an effective strategy, according to the results of a new study.\nResearchers at the University of Oxford found that the Covid-19 vaccine was 76% effective at preventing symptomatic infection for three months after a single dose, and in fact that the efficacy rate rose with a longer interval before the first and second doses.\n“Vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 post vaccination was 76% ... and modelled analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3 month period,” the study, under review at The Lancet medical journal and published on Tuesday as a preprint, found.\nThe efficacy rate rose to 82.4% when there was at least a 12-week interval before the second dose. When the second dose was given less than six weeks after the first one, the efficacy rate was 54.9%.\n“These analyses show that higher vaccine efficacy is obtained with a longer interval between the first and second dose, and that a single dose of vaccine is highly efficacious in the first 90 days, providing further support for current policy,” the report said.\nThe U.K.’s current strategy is to vaccinate as many people as possible with a single dose first and to delay the second dose for up to 12 weeks; the idea being that a first dose provides at least some partial protection and allows more people to access the vaccines while they are in limited supply.\nThe decision to delay giving people a second, booster dose has provoked controversy, and some questioned whether it could lower the efficacy of the vaccine at preventing serious Covid-19 infection.\nHowever, the U.K.’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, supported the approach. The U.K. is also delaying the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, a move that the vaccine makers have warned against, arguing that there is no data to support a delay.\nThe study also provided important data on whether the vaccine reduces transmission of the virus, a previous unknown and a crucial question for policymakers looking to lift lockdown measures that have crippled the economy.\nBased on weekly swabs from volunteers in the U.K. study, it found a 67% reduction in transmission after the first dose of the vaccine.\nEffective strategy\nThis latest study supports the U.K. government’s decision, concluding that vaccination programs “aimed at vaccinating a large proportion of the population with a single dose, with a second dose given after a 3 month period, is an effective strategy for reducing disease, and may be the optimal for rollout of a pandemic vaccine when supplies are limited in the short term.”\nThe study used further data on ongoing clinical trials into the vaccine. A separate announcement from AstraZeneca on Wednesday showed that the vaccine also prevented serious illness from Covid-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalizations more than 22 days after the first dose.\nThe vaccine was approved by the U.K.’s drug regulator on Dec. 30 and, as a shot produced in Britain, makes up the bulk of the nation’s immunization program, which has been hailed as a success so far.\nThe U.K. is on track to have vaccinated its top four priority groups (the over-70s, residents and staff in elderly care homes, frontline health and social care workers and the clinically extremely vulnerable) numbering around 15 million people by mid-February.\nAs of Feb.1, over 9.6 million people had received a first dose of the vaccine, and just under 500,000 had received two doses, according to government data.\nProfessor Andrew Pollard, chief investigator of the Oxford vaccine trial, and co-author of the study, said “these new data provide an important verification of the interim data that was used by more than 25 regulators including the MHRA and EMA to grant the vaccine emergency use authorisation.”\n“It also supports the policy recommendation made by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for a 12-week prime-boost interval, as they look for the optimal approach to roll out, and reassures us that people are protected from 22 days after a single dose of the vaccine.”\nThe researchers also hope to report data regarding the new coronavirus variants in the coming days, and expect the findings to be broadly similar to those already reported by fellow vaccine developers: That the current vaccines do work against mutations of the virus.\nGermany, France and Sweden are currently not recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine to over-65s, saying there is not enough trial data on this age group. The vaccine maker and U.K. government have defended the jab, however, and say the data that is available shows it is safe and effective, with more analysis set to become available soon.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317904370,"gmtCreate":1612403539090,"gmtModify":1704870691505,"author":{"id":"3573638857186663","authorId":"3573638857186663","authorIdStr":"3573638857186663","name":"Winson06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d440d8ecca7e4ed4738509527d04d42","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573638857186663"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317904370","repostId":"1190569667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190569667","pubTimestamp":1612349733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190569667?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-03 18:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190569667","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% ju","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop climbs 12% in volatile premarket trade as Reddit traders dig in\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-03 18:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f99468960c8d559870f82a67747dd7","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/gamestop-climbs-11percent-in-volatile-premarket-trade-as-reddit-traders-dig-in.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1190569667","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week.\nGamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and it has lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\n\nGameStopshares gained 12% in premarket trade on Wednesday as the short squeeze fueled by retail traders on Reddit looks to revive itself following a steep decline.\nThe stock had been down by more than 11% earlier on Wednesday morning but swung into the black shortly after 5 a.m. ET.\nShares of the bricks-and-mortar video game retailer surged 1,625% in January and 400% just last week, as traders led by Reddit thread WallStreetBets piled into the stock.\nBut the momentum had waned earlier this week. Gamestop stock dropped 60% on Tuesday and ithas lost more than 70% of its value since Friday.\nAMC Entertainment, another heavily shorted stock that was also targeted by Reddit traders, was up by around 4% in premarket trade.\nRobinhood and other retail trading appscontinue to limit some buying of a collection of stocks pursued by the Reddit thread. Many Wall Street hedge funds began short-covering toward the end of last week after taking significant losses in the squeeze.\nShort selling is a strategy in which investors borrow shares of a stock at a certain price on expectations that the market value will fall below that level when it’s time to pay for the borrowed shares. Buying back borrowed shares to close out a short position, whether for a profit or loss, is known as short-covering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}