Tiongwee personal page - To The Moon

Tiongwee

Tiongwee

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2022-11-15

lol

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2021-04-19

Great! Pls comment

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2022-12-05

Like

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2024-04-10

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$

2021-05-03

Sell in May? Please comment.

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2021-06-10

Pls comment. Thanks

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2022-11-27

Ok

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2021-08-09

Yo

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2021-07-02

Pls like and comment

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2022-11-11

Like

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Huh hi Jin in","listText":"Ji by invert hi. Huh hi Jin in","text":"Ji by invert hi. 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In trading, he primarily focuses on <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQM\">$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MFC\">$Manulife(MFC)$</a> , <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a> , and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> , and often utilizes the strangle option strategy for dividend stocks to generate income.He exercises caution in position management by keeping half of his available cash in Tiger vault to safeguard against market crashes. Currently, he has achieved a year-t","text":"@Optionspuppy has long been a Star Contributor in the Tiger Community, consistently providing valuable content. In trading, he primarily focuses on $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ , $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ , $Manulife(MFC)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , and $Apple(AAPL)$ , and often utilizes the strangle option strategy for dividend stocks to generate income.He exercises caution in position management by keeping half of his available cash in Tiger vault to safeguard against market crashes. Currently, he has achieved a year-t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8040b9cc7850ea745c3a2b2ad8ce5c0f","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b76a921f0e6ac025eda3f5c79a6be33c","width":"794","height":"1280"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e5a73ebf27b97bab8fcf17cf094ac6f","width":"854","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/299426115092480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":299631974232184,"gmtCreate":1714171758260,"gmtModify":1714171760116,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/299631974232184","repostId":"299575021346976","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":299575021346976,"gmtCreate":1714157856611,"gmtModify":1747108850255,"author":{"id":"4102815868703010","authorId":"4102815868703010","name":"mster","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a8fe18bd419696551df5320d8db477","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102815868703010","idStr":"4102815868703010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMD 20240426 157.5 CALL\">$AMD 20240426 157.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Closing this CC as the 2nd part of the Rolling strategy as already buy to open the 2nd leg earlier. Rolling an short option contract usually is done with Buy-to-Close then followed with Sell-to-Open or simply use the roll function if it’s available, however I have opted with doing it in reverse sequence. A bit riskier, but if it goes your way, we collect a little more premiums. However this option could too expire worthless 😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/AMD 20240426 157.5 CALL\">$AMD 20240426 157.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Closing this CC as the 2nd part of the Rolling strategy as already buy to open the 2nd leg earlier. Rolling an short option contract usually is done with Buy-to-Close then followed with Sell-to-Open or simply use the roll function if it’s available, however I have opted with doing it in reverse sequence. A bit riskier, but if it goes your way, we collect a little more premiums. However this option could too expire worthless 😅","text":"$AMD 20240426 157.5 CALL$ Closing this CC as the 2nd part of the Rolling strategy as already buy to open the 2nd leg earlier. Rolling an short option contract usually is done with Buy-to-Close then followed with Sell-to-Open or simply use the roll function if it’s available, however I have opted with doing it in reverse sequence. A bit riskier, but if it goes your way, we collect a little more premiums. However this option could too expire worthless 😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/299575021346976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":299631944695928,"gmtCreate":1714171751049,"gmtModify":1714171753054,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/299631944695928","repostId":"299589628190768","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":299589628190768,"gmtCreate":1714161418094,"gmtModify":1746864988878,"author":{"id":"4134606855960122","authorId":"4134606855960122","name":"Sxyew","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4134606855960122","idStr":"4134606855960122"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MCD 20240503 277.5 CALL\">$MCD 20240503 277.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Take a look at the latest order I posted！","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/MCD 20240503 277.5 CALL\">$MCD 20240503 277.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>Take a look at the latest order I posted！","text":"$MCD 20240503 277.5 CALL$ Take a look at the latest order I posted！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/299589628190768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":293808783679768,"gmtCreate":1712737464111,"gmtModify":1712737467992,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GOOGL\">$Alphabet(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/295b54fd672cabce719e50298898909c","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/293808783679768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290742994653416,"gmtCreate":1712008186037,"gmtModify":1712008435400,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.atigrzen.com/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=AUCATWWQ&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=8cfdfe1fd75f537bab801acece46abb9&amp;invite=8HOXZK&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","listText":"Find out more here: <a href=\"https://www.atigrzen.com/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=AUCATWWQ&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=8cfdfe1fd75f537bab801acece46abb9&amp;invite=8HOXZK&amp;lang=en_US\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","text":"Find out more here: Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290742994653416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":257480844816680,"gmtCreate":1703895611237,"gmtModify":1703901459164,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/257480844816680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":248582158106624,"gmtCreate":1701727089478,"gmtModify":1701727093967,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great idea. Can give it a try!&nbsp;","listText":"Great idea. Can give it a try!&nbsp;","text":"Great idea. Can give it a try!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248582158106624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":234846984728824,"gmtCreate":1698357343798,"gmtModify":1698357348236,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Test if this post works!","listText":"Test if this post works!","text":"Test if this post works!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/234846984728824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949684461,"gmtCreate":1678596669054,"gmtModify":1678596672565,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949684461","repostId":"627426104","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":627426104,"gmtCreate":1678596424609,"gmtModify":1678596424609,"author":{"id":"3569279608087117","authorId":"3569279608087117","name":"您好我是jeff","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569279608087117","idStr":"3569279608087117"},"themes":[],"title":"美股三大股指分析和下週預測","htmlText":"2、標普500指數的走勢與納指100類似，只是他已經跌破了下降趨勢線，未來的目標位在上升趨勢線附近的3833點附近，若能在此位止跌，就有望反彈，但是反彈如果不過長期下降趨勢線會淪爲橫擺市3、道指就比較關鍵，因爲剛好跌到了長期下降趨勢線的位置31881，所以下週一至關重要，若收陽線就止跌起漲，跟上一次（去年12月20日）一樣會反彈一段，若直接破位那就慘了，所以密切關注下週一的走勢","listText":"2、標普500指數的走勢與納指100類似，只是他已經跌破了下降趨勢線，未來的目標位在上升趨勢線附近的3833點附近，若能在此位止跌，就有望反彈，但是反彈如果不過長期下降趨勢線會淪爲橫擺市3、道指就比較關鍵，因爲剛好跌到了長期下降趨勢線的位置31881，所以下週一至關重要，若收陽線就止跌起漲，跟上一次（去年12月20日）一樣會反彈一段，若直接破位那就慘了，所以密切關注下週一的走勢","text":"2、標普500指數的走勢與納指100類似，只是他已經跌破了下降趨勢線，未來的目標位在上升趨勢線附近的3833點附近，若能在此位止跌，就有望反彈，但是反彈如果不過長期下降趨勢線會淪爲橫擺市3、道指就比較關鍵，因爲剛好跌到了長期下降趨勢線的位置31881，所以下週一至關重要，若收陽線就止跌起漲，跟上一次（去年12月20日）一樣會反彈一段，若直接破位那就慘了，所以密切關注下週一的走勢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/627426104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957652702,"gmtCreate":1677235082207,"gmtModify":1677235085648,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957652702","repostId":"624866112","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957373896,"gmtCreate":1677047552016,"gmtModify":1677047556390,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957373896","repostId":"624943586","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624943586,"gmtCreate":1677046756397,"gmtModify":1677046756397,"author":{"id":"3527667586584720","authorId":"3527667586584720","name":"小虎综合资讯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667586584720","idStr":"3527667586584720"},"themes":[],"title":"預告：巴菲特週六公佈致股東信，併發布2022年財報","htmlText":"2月22日，股神巴菲特旗下伯克希爾哈撒維公司當地時間週二發佈公告稱，公司將於美東時間週六上午8點（北京時間晚9點）左右發佈2022年報，同時發佈的還有巴菲特致股東信。另外，伯克希爾公司計劃5月6日召開年度股東會。","listText":"2月22日，股神巴菲特旗下伯克希爾哈撒維公司當地時間週二發佈公告稱，公司將於美東時間週六上午8點（北京時間晚9點）左右發佈2022年報，同時發佈的還有巴菲特致股東信。另外，伯克希爾公司計劃5月6日召開年度股東會。","text":"2月22日，股神巴菲特旗下伯克希爾哈撒維公司當地時間週二發佈公告稱，公司將於美東時間週六上午8點（北京時間晚9點）左右發佈2022年報，同時發佈的還有巴菲特致股東信。另外，伯克希爾公司計劃5月6日召開年度股東會。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cc42d1339152cee13bff6c2915e447","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/624943586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954288425,"gmtCreate":1676393639268,"gmtModify":1676393642850,"author":{"id":"3573775111920367","authorId":"3573775111920367","name":"Tiongwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e90910e406e67c77f42e225b16b69020","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573775111920367","idStr":"3573775111920367"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954288425","repostId":"1164364184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954112827,"gmtCreate":1676081640370,"gmtModify":1676081643554,"author":{"id":"357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A：2月3日美國勞工部公佈2023年1月非農就業數據，新增非農就業51.7萬人，大幅高於市場預期的18.9萬人；失業率降至3.4%，爲近50年以來的最低位；時薪同比增速4.4%，環比增速0.3%，略有放緩。 從總量上來看，本次數據存在很多一次性和技術性因素的擾動，比如罷工返崗的教職工、調查統計口徑的修正、季調因子的更新，後續可能將有所修正（參考2022年1月新增非農由50.4萬人下修至36.4萬人），非農就業或不像數據體現的那樣強勁。從結構上來看，高科技企業裁員影響仍在，但佔比較低；高接觸性服務業如休閒酒店、教育保健等新增就業大幅回升，數據顯示服務業勞動力缺口仍存。結合同樣大超預期的服務業PMI、崗位空缺和勞動力缺口數據的回升和消費信貸數據的強勢，我們判斷經過極端天氣和節假日後美國服務業迎來了快速修復。 我們認爲，在不經過衰退的情況下美國就業市場的供需緊張難以改善。目前美國勞動力市場尚有500餘萬的供給缺口，而勞動參與率上行緩慢，尤其是25-54歲勞動參與率已經接近疫情前高點。除此之外，由於美國居民超額儲蓄和消費信貸的強勢，消費需求的強勁將促使緊縮政策對就業市場的影響進一步滯後。美國就業市場供需持續緊張將是2023年美國經濟的底色。疊加目前臨近加息結束，通脹預期不斷反覆，我們對薪資增速的持續下降並不樂觀。 本次數據公佈前，美國股債匯市場對於美聯儲加息路徑的預期過於樂觀。隨着通脹數據的持續改善，美聯儲在縮短加息步伐的同時還不斷維繫着市場通脹預期脆弱的平衡，但市場對於美聯儲偏向鷹派的表述視而不見，不僅預期提前停止加息，還預期年末兩次降息。在勞動力市場供需緊張，緊縮政策影響不明的情況下，我們認爲美聯儲年末對於加息的指引是相對合理的，市場極端預期的調整和交易的擁擠或將對市場產生一定傷害。儘管如此，薪資增速的頑固難改","listText":"Q：請問重陽投資，如何看待美國1月非農就業數據大超預期及未來趨勢？ A：2月3日美國勞工部公佈2023年1月非農就業數據，新增非農就業51.7萬人，大幅高於市場預期的18.9萬人；失業率降至3.4%，爲近50年以來的最低位；時薪同比增速4.4%，環比增速0.3%，略有放緩。 從總量上來看，本次數據存在很多一次性和技術性因素的擾動，比如罷工返崗的教職工、調查統計口徑的修正、季調因子的更新，後續可能將有所修正（參考2022年1月新增非農由50.4萬人下修至36.4萬人），非農就業或不像數據體現的那樣強勁。從結構上來看，高科技企業裁員影響仍在，但佔比較低；高接觸性服務業如休閒酒店、教育保健等新增就業大幅回升，數據顯示服務業勞動力缺口仍存。結合同樣大超預期的服務業PMI、崗位空缺和勞動力缺口數據的回升和消費信貸數據的強勢，我們判斷經過極端天氣和節假日後美國服務業迎來了快速修復。 我們認爲，在不經過衰退的情況下美國就業市場的供需緊張難以改善。目前美國勞動力市場尚有500餘萬的供給缺口，而勞動參與率上行緩慢，尤其是25-54歲勞動參與率已經接近疫情前高點。除此之外，由於美國居民超額儲蓄和消費信貸的強勢，消費需求的強勁將促使緊縮政策對就業市場的影響進一步滯後。美國就業市場供需持續緊張將是2023年美國經濟的底色。疊加目前臨近加息結束，通脹預期不斷反覆，我們對薪資增速的持續下降並不樂觀。 本次數據公佈前，美國股債匯市場對於美聯儲加息路徑的預期過於樂觀。隨着通脹數據的持續改善，美聯儲在縮短加息步伐的同時還不斷維繫着市場通脹預期脆弱的平衡，但市場對於美聯儲偏向鷹派的表述視而不見，不僅預期提前停止加息，還預期年末兩次降息。在勞動力市場供需緊張，緊縮政策影響不明的情況下，我們認爲美聯儲年末對於加息的指引是相對合理的，市場極端預期的調整和交易的擁擠或將對市場產生一定傷害。儘管如此，薪資增速的頑固難改","text":"Q：請問重陽投資，如何看待美國1月非農就業數據大超預期及未來趨勢？ A：2月3日美國勞工部公佈2023年1月非農就業數據，新增非農就業51.7萬人，大幅高於市場預期的18.9萬人；失業率降至3.4%，爲近50年以來的最低位；時薪同比增速4.4%，環比增速0.3%，略有放緩。 從總量上來看，本次數據存在很多一次性和技術性因素的擾動，比如罷工返崗的教職工、調查統計口徑的修正、季調因子的更新，後續可能將有所修正（參考2022年1月新增非農由50.4萬人下修至36.4萬人），非農就業或不像數據體現的那樣強勁。從結構上來看，高科技企業裁員影響仍在，但佔比較低；高接觸性服務業如休閒酒店、教育保健等新增就業大幅回升，數據顯示服務業勞動力缺口仍存。結合同樣大超預期的服務業PMI、崗位空缺和勞動力缺口數據的回升和消費信貸數據的強勢，我們判斷經過極端天氣和節假日後美國服務業迎來了快速修復。 我們認爲，在不經過衰退的情況下美國就業市場的供需緊張難以改善。目前美國勞動力市場尚有500餘萬的供給缺口，而勞動參與率上行緩慢，尤其是25-54歲勞動參與率已經接近疫情前高點。除此之外，由於美國居民超額儲蓄和消費信貸的強勢，消費需求的強勁將促使緊縮政策對就業市場的影響進一步滯後。美國就業市場供需持續緊張將是2023年美國經濟的底色。疊加目前臨近加息結束，通脹預期不斷反覆，我們對薪資增速的持續下降並不樂觀。 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