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2023-06-08

K

Palantir Stock: Get Out ASAP (Rating Downgrade)

2023-06-07

K

Goldman Says a 140% YTD Rally in This AI Stock Is "Overdone"

2022-08-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$👌

2022-05-30

SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-05-18

Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣

The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start

2022-03-23

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲

2022-02-18

Oh no... my ARK 🥲 lol no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever she buys keep hitting stop loss.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-04

$BlackBerry(BB)$???

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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09:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock: Get Out ASAP (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2341800265","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Palantir Stock: Get Out ASAP (Rating Downgrade) (NYSE:PLTR)","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>After the Palantir stock recently broke through the $15 mark, I decided to update my thesis.</p></li><li><p>As I see it, the company has some significant problems related to the structure of its business model.</p></li><li><p>Alex Karp says in an interview that PLTR probably shouldn&#39;t sell its AI offerings to some commercial customers, which I think limits and deters a potential buyer.</p></li><li><p>Even if PLTR trades at extremely high EV/UFCF multiples as suggested by bulls, the fair value is unlikely to exceed what we see today.</p></li><li><p>I assign a Sell rating on PLTR stock, downgrading it from Hold.</p></li></ul><p>After the stock recently broke through the $15 mark, I decided to update my thesis. Unfortunately for bulls, <em>I must warn those who wanted to jump on this positive bandwagon: the company is perfectly valued at this point and it&#39;ll take many years for PLTR to grow out of its current valuation.</em> I&#39;m downgrading the stock again from Hold to Sell and urge everyone to be extremely cautious.</p><h2>Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>Palantir develops and sells software platforms to operationalize data for large government and commercial customers. The company has 3 platforms: Gotham, which is used in the government sector; Foundry, a more standardized offering primarily for commercial customers; and Apollo, a critical systems operations coordinator launched for commercial use in 2021. The firm is developing its latest offering, the Artificial Intelligence Platform [AIP], which combines the existing software platforms with large language models [LLMs] to enable customers in commercial and government sectors to leverage the benefits of artificial intelligence breakthroughs [according to the latest 10-Q filing]. AIP allows users to connect LLMs with their data and operations, aiding decision-making while adhering to legal, ethical, and security requirements.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, the mention of AI and LLMs in the same paragraph of the 10-Q, as well as the strong Q1 FY2023 numbers, gave the stock a significant boost and allowed speculators to double their investment [so far] on buying PLTR shares ahead of the quarterly report release. However, as I&#39;ve written before, the company has some problems related to the structure of its business model. And it&#39;s not yet clear exactly how these problems will be resolved in the foreseeable future - no matter how many new features are pitched through the marketing campaigns.</p><p>First off, Palantir&#39;s software still requires extensive human interaction for coding, and it was expensive and lacked comprehensive features for everyday business users when the company first started as a business intelligence [BI - not AI] company. So due to the proprietary nature of its platform and the need for customization and coding, Palantir became more of a services company rather than a scalable software company. The heavy reliance on employees for implementation hindered growth and scalability - this is why PLTR lost its previous operating growth at some point in its recent past.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f198b23e4449894d36c74caf8370ce07\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>While Palantir found success with government contracts and security-related use cases, their software was not the primary driver of their success. The company relied heavily on the expertise of its employees, making it difficult to scale the business, while at the same time, its focus on the federal sector limited its presence in the commercial space.</p><p>And since I touched upon that, in the commercial space, competitors are not sleeping. They keep on evolving their platforms, expanding mobile capabilities, and building partner ecosystems to cater to various use cases. Companies were shifting towards more affordable and flexible analytics solutions, making it challenging for Palantir to compete effectively. And at the same time, CEO Alex Karp says in an interview with Bloomberg that the company probably shouldn&#39;t sell its AI offerings to some commercial customers, which I think limits and deters a potential buyer.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48c0b0f22419115fa897cfd6fdbddfd\" alt=\"Bloomberg [author&#39;s notes]\" title=\"Bloomberg [author&#39;s notes]\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\"/><span>Bloomberg [author&#39;s notes]</span></p><p>Correct me if I&#39;m wrong, but commercial space should be the main growth driver for the company if it wants to scale and hold the high valuation multiples that the market assigns to it. And at the very time when an unprecedented war for a customer is breaking out in the AI space, PLTR&#39;s CEO is making such claims, ignoring other competitors or not taking them seriously - that poses future problems, in my opinion.</p><p>Over the past few years, the industry witnessed a shift where the GUI/front end became commoditized, and the focus shifted to the data stack and building models, machine learning, etc. Companies started adopting cost-effective analytics tools like Power BI, and the work was done using platforms like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>, Databricks, SAS, R, AWS, and Azure. Palantir&#39;s closed-end system and expensive resources were not aligned with this trend - the hyped AIP may not really solve the problem here.</p><p>So I believe the company&#39;s business model, heavily dependent on expensive resources and a consulting approach, does not align with the strategies of successful software companies today.</p><p>But let&#39;s pretend for a moment that I&#39;m wrong and AIP is indeed a game-changer. Let&#39;s just make some napkin calculations. I have forward-looking data on hand from a former Credit Suisse analyst who calculated the key operating data for PLTR through FY2025:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63b710b14aa42ca0e813128cf1121d32\" alt=\"Credit Suisse [proprietary source]\" title=\"Credit Suisse [proprietary source]\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"723\"/><span>Credit Suisse [proprietary source]</span></p><p>This analyst had a price target of $11 per share and an adjusted EPS forecast for FY2023 of $0.25 - which is above the current consensus. FY2024 and FY2025 CS&#39;s numbers are also 19-18% above consensus. In other words, the bank&#39;s analyst was clearly bullish - the current neutral rating is the result of the sharp revaluation of the stock price as I see it.</p><p>Pay attention to the forecast data above - it&#39;s very positive. EBITDA is expected to more than double by FY2025, while revenue is expected to grow by &gt;75% over the same period. That&#39;s slightly faster than what the company has been posting since 2022.</p><p>PLRT&#39;s net debt is expected to remain strongly negative, as there is no long-term debt, and cash flow is very positive. Shareholders equity should double against this backdrop and the number of shares outstanding is expected to decline by 11.75% over this 5-year period.</p><p><em>In a word - everything looks more than positive and rosy for the company. Why then only $11 per share as a price target?</em></p><p>Because even if PLTR trades at NTM and SNTM EV/UFCF multiples of 99.7x and 76.1x [respectively], as the analyst writes, which would correspond to the Blue Sky scenario, the fair value won&#39;t go beyond the $15.00/sh mark.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07036fb1cf9e0312f902c94b8fa8d172\" alt=\"Credit Suisse [proprietary source]\" title=\"Credit Suisse [proprietary source]\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"426\"/><span>Credit Suisse [proprietary source]</span></p><p>With PLTR&#39;s P/E ratio back at &gt;70x, it makes absolutely no sense for me to keep the stock on the Hold rating. I don&#39;t know about you, but I can&#39;t understand the intentions of many investors to overpay for a technology that has questionable unit economics and rooting business model issues.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f2a7d46e1305309af2b87a1a7e0bc8f\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, PLTR, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, PLTR, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"468\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, PLTR, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>Even with relatively optimistic forecasts and a continuation of the break-even trend, PLTR stock is again severely overvalued like in late-2021, and risks losing most [if not all] of its gains once the AI hype subsides.</p><h2>The Bottom Line</h2><p>I realize that I could easily be wrong in my assessments of the company&#39;s business model - this poses a significant upside risk to my updated Sell thesis. The thing is, it&#39;s too early to judge AIP&#39;s success or failure - too little time has passed, and its commercial success is shrouded in a veil of secrecy. I could also be wrong about the valuation of the company - with a relatively fast breaking-even dynamic, PLTR may grow out of its valuation sooner than I see, contrary to my Sell thesis.</p><p>However, I try to think through the prism of the most likely events. I think it&#39;s more likely that PLTR will become a run-of-the-mill AI vendor at best, and its richly valued market cap will decline as the company&#39;s operations mature. The current hype is nothing more than a pop against the backdrop of another bubble that is inflating and cannot last forever. I expect the market to reprice all the risks in the coming months, and PLTR will then probably be among those negatively affected because of that repricing.</p><p>For these reasons, I assign a Sell rating on PLTR stock, downgrading it from Hold.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: Get Out ASAP (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: Get Out ASAP (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-08 09:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610044-palantir-stock-get-out-asap-rating-downgrade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAfter the Palantir stock recently broke through the $15 mark, I decided to update my thesis.As I see it, the company has some significant problems related to the structure of its business model...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610044-palantir-stock-get-out-asap-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4610044-palantir-stock-get-out-asap-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2341800265","content_text":"SummaryAfter the Palantir stock recently broke through the $15 mark, I decided to update my thesis.As I see it, the company has some significant problems related to the structure of its business model.Alex Karp says in an interview that PLTR probably shouldn't sell its AI offerings to some commercial customers, which I think limits and deters a potential buyer.Even if PLTR trades at extremely high EV/UFCF multiples as suggested by bulls, the fair value is unlikely to exceed what we see today.I assign a Sell rating on PLTR stock, downgrading it from Hold.After the stock recently broke through the $15 mark, I decided to update my thesis. Unfortunately for bulls, I must warn those who wanted to jump on this positive bandwagon: the company is perfectly valued at this point and it'll take many years for PLTR to grow out of its current valuation. I'm downgrading the stock again from Hold to Sell and urge everyone to be extremely cautious.Why Do I Think So?Palantir develops and sells software platforms to operationalize data for large government and commercial customers. The company has 3 platforms: Gotham, which is used in the government sector; Foundry, a more standardized offering primarily for commercial customers; and Apollo, a critical systems operations coordinator launched for commercial use in 2021. The firm is developing its latest offering, the Artificial Intelligence Platform [AIP], which combines the existing software platforms with large language models [LLMs] to enable customers in commercial and government sectors to leverage the benefits of artificial intelligence breakthroughs [according to the latest 10-Q filing]. AIP allows users to connect LLMs with their data and operations, aiding decision-making while adhering to legal, ethical, and security requirements.Unsurprisingly, the mention of AI and LLMs in the same paragraph of the 10-Q, as well as the strong Q1 FY2023 numbers, gave the stock a significant boost and allowed speculators to double their investment [so far] on buying PLTR shares ahead of the quarterly report release. However, as I've written before, the company has some problems related to the structure of its business model. And it's not yet clear exactly how these problems will be resolved in the foreseeable future - no matter how many new features are pitched through the marketing campaigns.First off, Palantir's software still requires extensive human interaction for coding, and it was expensive and lacked comprehensive features for everyday business users when the company first started as a business intelligence [BI - not AI] company. So due to the proprietary nature of its platform and the need for customization and coding, Palantir became more of a services company rather than a scalable software company. The heavy reliance on employees for implementation hindered growth and scalability - this is why PLTR lost its previous operating growth at some point in its recent past.Data by YChartsWhile Palantir found success with government contracts and security-related use cases, their software was not the primary driver of their success. The company relied heavily on the expertise of its employees, making it difficult to scale the business, while at the same time, its focus on the federal sector limited its presence in the commercial space.And since I touched upon that, in the commercial space, competitors are not sleeping. They keep on evolving their platforms, expanding mobile capabilities, and building partner ecosystems to cater to various use cases. Companies were shifting towards more affordable and flexible analytics solutions, making it challenging for Palantir to compete effectively. And at the same time, CEO Alex Karp says in an interview with Bloomberg that the company probably shouldn't sell its AI offerings to some commercial customers, which I think limits and deters a potential buyer.Bloomberg [author's notes]Correct me if I'm wrong, but commercial space should be the main growth driver for the company if it wants to scale and hold the high valuation multiples that the market assigns to it. And at the very time when an unprecedented war for a customer is breaking out in the AI space, PLTR's CEO is making such claims, ignoring other competitors or not taking them seriously - that poses future problems, in my opinion.Over the past few years, the industry witnessed a shift where the GUI/front end became commoditized, and the focus shifted to the data stack and building models, machine learning, etc. Companies started adopting cost-effective analytics tools like Power BI, and the work was done using platforms like Snowflake, Databricks, SAS, R, AWS, and Azure. Palantir's closed-end system and expensive resources were not aligned with this trend - the hyped AIP may not really solve the problem here.So I believe the company's business model, heavily dependent on expensive resources and a consulting approach, does not align with the strategies of successful software companies today.But let's pretend for a moment that I'm wrong and AIP is indeed a game-changer. Let's just make some napkin calculations. I have forward-looking data on hand from a former Credit Suisse analyst who calculated the key operating data for PLTR through FY2025:Credit Suisse [proprietary source]This analyst had a price target of $11 per share and an adjusted EPS forecast for FY2023 of $0.25 - which is above the current consensus. FY2024 and FY2025 CS's numbers are also 19-18% above consensus. In other words, the bank's analyst was clearly bullish - the current neutral rating is the result of the sharp revaluation of the stock price as I see it.Pay attention to the forecast data above - it's very positive. EBITDA is expected to more than double by FY2025, while revenue is expected to grow by >75% over the same period. That's slightly faster than what the company has been posting since 2022.PLRT's net debt is expected to remain strongly negative, as there is no long-term debt, and cash flow is very positive. Shareholders equity should double against this backdrop and the number of shares outstanding is expected to decline by 11.75% over this 5-year period.In a word - everything looks more than positive and rosy for the company. Why then only $11 per share as a price target?Because even if PLTR trades at NTM and SNTM EV/UFCF multiples of 99.7x and 76.1x [respectively], as the analyst writes, which would correspond to the Blue Sky scenario, the fair value won't go beyond the $15.00/sh mark.Credit Suisse [proprietary source]With PLTR's P/E ratio back at >70x, it makes absolutely no sense for me to keep the stock on the Hold rating. I don't know about you, but I can't understand the intentions of many investors to overpay for a technology that has questionable unit economics and rooting business model issues.Seeking Alpha, PLTR, author's notesEven with relatively optimistic forecasts and a continuation of the break-even trend, PLTR stock is again severely overvalued like in late-2021, and risks losing most [if not all] of its gains once the AI hype subsides.The Bottom LineI realize that I could easily be wrong in my assessments of the company's business model - this poses a significant upside risk to my updated Sell thesis. The thing is, it's too early to judge AIP's success or failure - too little time has passed, and its commercial success is shrouded in a veil of secrecy. I could also be wrong about the valuation of the company - with a relatively fast breaking-even dynamic, PLTR may grow out of its valuation sooner than I see, contrary to my Sell thesis.However, I try to think through the prism of the most likely events. I think it's more likely that PLTR will become a run-of-the-mill AI vendor at best, and its richly valued market cap will decline as the company's operations mature. The current hype is nothing more than a pop against the backdrop of another bubble that is inflating and cannot last forever. I expect the market to reprice all the risks in the coming months, and PLTR will then probably be among those negatively affected because of that repricing.For these reasons, I assign a Sell rating on PLTR stock, downgrading it from Hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184617701507184,"gmtCreate":1686097249857,"gmtModify":1686097253545,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184617701507184","repostId":"2341619768","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2341619768","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1686095890,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2341619768?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-06-07 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says a 140% YTD Rally in This AI Stock Is \"Overdone\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2341619768","media":"Investing.com","summary":"Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges weighed in on the massive run-up in Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) amid Wall Street's building frenzy ...(Premium-only article. Please sign in or upgrade to SI Premium to view.)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Goldman Sachs analysts weighed in on the massive run-up in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> amid Wall Street&#39;s building frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI).</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While Nasdaq is up roughly 26% year-to-date, Palantir stock surged as much as 138% YTD, mostly due to the investor focus on increasing exposure to companies that offer AI products and services.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">On the recent earnings call, the officials noted a bigger uptick in interest for its products in the last couple of weeks than all of last year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Still, Goldman analysts believe the rally in PLTR stock is “overdone” despite believing that AI “will be a tailwind to Palantir’s business” after attending Palantir&#39;s AIPCon customer event earlier this month.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“We view AI as an extension of Palantir&#39;s existing work in the data analytics stack, rather than a step function change in product strategy or adoption,” the analysts said.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“Our illustrative scenario analysis suggests that AI would likely need to drive a ~15 pt acceleration in Palantir growth over the next 3 years (from 15% to 30%) to warrant current valuations.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The price target on the Neutral-rated Palantir stock is raised to $10 per share, signaling a nearly 35% downside risk from current levels.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Says a 140% YTD Rally in This AI Stock Is \"Overdone\"</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says a 140% YTD Rally in This AI Stock Is \"Overdone\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-07 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=21766141><strong>Investing.com</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Goldman Sachs analysts weighed in on the massive run-up in Palantir amid Wall Street's building frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI).While Nasdaq is up roughly 26% year-to-date, Palantir stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=21766141\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=21766141","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2341619768","content_text":"Goldman Sachs analysts weighed in on the massive run-up in Palantir amid Wall Street's building frenzy around artificial intelligence (AI).While Nasdaq is up roughly 26% year-to-date, Palantir stock surged as much as 138% YTD, mostly due to the investor focus on increasing exposure to companies that offer AI products and services.On the recent earnings call, the officials noted a bigger uptick in interest for its products in the last couple of weeks than all of last year.Still, Goldman analysts believe the rally in PLTR stock is “overdone” despite believing that AI “will be a tailwind to Palantir’s business” after attending Palantir's AIPCon customer event earlier this month.“We view AI as an extension of Palantir's existing work in the data analytics stack, rather than a step function change in product strategy or adoption,” the analysts said.“Our illustrative scenario analysis suggests that AI would likely need to drive a ~15 pt acceleration in Palantir growth over the next 3 years (from 15% to 30%) to warrant current valuations.”The price target on the Neutral-rated Palantir stock is raised to $10 per share, signaling a nearly 35% downside risk from current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902812685,"gmtCreate":1659667886949,"gmtModify":1705311919850,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>👌","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>👌","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$👌","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf107891cbb4ef9b343f73160b939ea2","width":"1170","height":"4134"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902812685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024412341,"gmtCreate":1653906154183,"gmtModify":1676535360526,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","listText":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","text":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024412341","repostId":"1135080799","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023385530,"gmtCreate":1652868058820,"gmtModify":1676535177513,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","listText":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","text":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023385530","repostId":"1142044909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142044909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652887633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142044909?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142044909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk&#39;s planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.</li><li>Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there&#39;s a cost to be viewed as a tech company.</li><li>Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.</li><li>We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company&#39;s market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we&#39;ll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.</p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp</p><p>Tesla&#39;s ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7055187c8a6996ce847e2854565136\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it&#39;s worth noting that the company&#39;s factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.</p><p>An example of this can be seen on Tesla&#39;s website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company&#39;s backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.</p><p>With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla&#39;s volume ramp as slowing down. It&#39;s telling that the company doesn&#39;t have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.</p><p>Tesla Energy Storage/Alternatives</p><p>Tesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143000d4559bfef8336756f8721db1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.</p><p>That means that as long as there&#39;s volume demand for the company&#39;s cars, the company&#39;s energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company&#39;s solar business. We&#39;ve discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It&#39;s decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.</p><p>Tesla Insurance</p><p>Another development for Tesla is the company&#39;s announcement that it&#39;s launching an insurance business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50de3780f98ffea0bd1f72d3395fe103\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR Law</p><p>Insurance isn&#39;t a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.</p><p>The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won&#39;t reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.</p><p>Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don&#39;t expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.</p><p>(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can&#39;t offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.</p><p>(2) Reputation. It&#39;s no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.</p><p>Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.</p><p>(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company&#39;s future shareholder returns.</p><p>Tesla and Tech, A Unique Downside</p><p>We want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a &gt;10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It&#39;s well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company&#39;s cars are.</p><p>However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company&#39;s cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company&#39;s cheapest car is more expensive.</p><p>More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla&#39;s unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company&#39;s products, especially higher end products.</p><p>Tesla Isn&#39;t Recession Proof</p><p>Tesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.</p><p>Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn&#39;t mean that they&#39;re making a profit. Tesla hasn&#39;t actually had to face a market downturn yet.</p><p>We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.</p><p>(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.</p><p>(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it&#39;s planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.</p><p><b>Thesis Risk</b></p><p>The largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company&#39;s competitors have struggled to compete. There&#39;s no guarantee that the company can&#39;t continue increasing market share and returns.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Tesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company&#39;s weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk&#39;s ownership and his pledging of the company&#39;s stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.</p><p>The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers&#39; vehicles such as Toyota&#39;s RAV4. We also view the company&#39;s position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142044909","content_text":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's a cost to be viewed as a tech company.Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company's market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk's Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we'll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.Tesla Volume RampTesla's ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it's worth noting that the company's factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.An example of this can be seen on Tesla's website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company's backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla's volume ramp as slowing down. It's telling that the company doesn't have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.Tesla Energy Storage/AlternativesTesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company's energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.That means that as long as there's volume demand for the company's cars, the company's energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company's solar business. We've discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It's decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.Tesla InsuranceAnother development for Tesla is the company's announcement that it's launching an insurance business.Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR LawInsurance isn't a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won't reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don't expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can't offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.(2) Reputation. It's no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company's future shareholder returns.Tesla and Tech, A Unique DownsideWe want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a >10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It's well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company's cars are.However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company's cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company's cheapest car is more expensive.More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla's unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company's products, especially higher end products.Tesla Isn't Recession ProofTesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn't mean that they're making a profit. Tesla hasn't actually had to face a market downturn yet.We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it's planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company's competitors have struggled to compete. There's no guarantee that the company can't continue increasing market share and returns.ConclusionTesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company's weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk's ownership and his pledging of the company's stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers' vehicles such as Toyota's RAV4. We also view the company's position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9037133550,"gmtCreate":1648046725682,"gmtModify":1676534296865,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f346fe5962709ab25d6993287597004e","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":34,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037133550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582667225966897","authorId":"3582667225966897","name":"JY1980","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f123e82a9a8b2f55744c343c13bbdc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582667225966897","authorIdStr":"3582667225966897"},"content":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul","text":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul","html":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094557052,"gmtCreate":1645193273658,"gmtModify":1676534007508,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲&nbsp;lol&nbsp;no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever&nbsp;she buys keep hitting stop loss.&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲&nbsp;lol&nbsp;no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever&nbsp;she buys keep hitting stop loss.&nbsp;","text":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲 lol no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever she buys keep hitting stop loss.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094557052","repostId":"1194989459","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580887198114940","authorId":"3580887198114940","name":"ZeRoCoOl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765f5ee2c912615ba5335eeffc60c0b4","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580887198114940","authorIdStr":"3580887198114940"},"content":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying","text":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying","html":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118409665,"gmtCreate":1622743043257,"gmtModify":1704190348232,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>???","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16428518e2b1fa08a153272ba749bce1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118409665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9037133550,"gmtCreate":1648046725682,"gmtModify":1676534296865,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$thank you Chicken Genius 🙏 sad that he's leaving the YouTube scene 🥲","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f346fe5962709ab25d6993287597004e","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":34,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037133550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582667225966897","authorId":"3582667225966897","name":"JY1980","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6f123e82a9a8b2f55744c343c13bbdc","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582667225966897","authorIdStr":"3582667225966897"},"content":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul","text":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul","html":"So sad indeed Not for him, i wont even be investing or on tesla Toxic utube Drain one soul"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094557052,"gmtCreate":1645193273658,"gmtModify":1676534007508,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲&nbsp;lol&nbsp;no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever&nbsp;she buys keep hitting stop loss.&nbsp;","listText":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲&nbsp;lol&nbsp;no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever&nbsp;she buys keep hitting stop loss.&nbsp;","text":"Oh no... my ARK 🥲 lol no wonder ARK downtrend since 2021. Whatever she buys keep hitting stop loss.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094557052","repostId":"1194989459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194989459","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1645190602,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194989459?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-18 21:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood Dumps $56M In Palantir Shares After Dismal Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194989459","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Cathie Wood-ledArk Investment Managementon Thursday significantly lowered its exposure toPalantir Technologies Incon the day shares of thePeterThiel-backed company plummeted after it reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.The popular investment managementfirm sold 4.77 million shares — estimated to be worth $56.2 million based on Thursday’s closing — in the big data company.Palantir stock closed 15.7% lower at $11.7 a share on Thursday. The stock is down 36.5% year-to-date.Palantir repo","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led <b>Ark Investment Management</b> on Thursday significantly lowered its exposure to <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b> on the day shares of the <b>PeterThiel</b>-backed company plummeted after it reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.</p><p>The popular investment management firm sold 4.77 million shares — estimated to be worth $56.2 million based on Thursday’s closing — in the big data company.</p><p>Palantir stock closed 15.7% lower at $11.7 a share on Thursday. The stock is down 36.5% year-to-date.</p><p>Palantir reported fourth-quarter earnings of 2 cents per share before the market opened on Thursday, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 4 cents.</p><p>The software company, known for its work with government agencies, reported quarterly sales of $432.87 million, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $417.69 million.</p><p>Ark Invest held 30.48 million shares in Palantir, prior to Thursday’s trade, implying it trimmed nearly 16% of the total stake.</p><p>The St. Petersburg, Florida-based investment management firm owns shares in Palantir via all of its active exchange-traded funds, including the flagship <b>Ark Innovation ETF.</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood Dumps $56M In Palantir Shares After Dismal Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood Dumps $56M In Palantir Shares After Dismal Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-18 21:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>Cathie Wood</b>-led <b>Ark Investment Management</b> on Thursday significantly lowered its exposure to <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b> on the day shares of the <b>PeterThiel</b>-backed company plummeted after it reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.</p><p>The popular investment management firm sold 4.77 million shares — estimated to be worth $56.2 million based on Thursday’s closing — in the big data company.</p><p>Palantir stock closed 15.7% lower at $11.7 a share on Thursday. The stock is down 36.5% year-to-date.</p><p>Palantir reported fourth-quarter earnings of 2 cents per share before the market opened on Thursday, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 4 cents.</p><p>The software company, known for its work with government agencies, reported quarterly sales of $432.87 million, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $417.69 million.</p><p>Ark Invest held 30.48 million shares in Palantir, prior to Thursday’s trade, implying it trimmed nearly 16% of the total stake.</p><p>The St. Petersburg, Florida-based investment management firm owns shares in Palantir via all of its active exchange-traded funds, including the flagship <b>Ark Innovation ETF.</b></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194989459","content_text":"Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Thursday significantly lowered its exposure to Palantir Technologies Inc on the day shares of the PeterThiel-backed company plummeted after it reported worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.The popular investment management firm sold 4.77 million shares — estimated to be worth $56.2 million based on Thursday’s closing — in the big data company.Palantir stock closed 15.7% lower at $11.7 a share on Thursday. The stock is down 36.5% year-to-date.Palantir reported fourth-quarter earnings of 2 cents per share before the market opened on Thursday, missing the analyst consensus estimate of 4 cents.The software company, known for its work with government agencies, reported quarterly sales of $432.87 million, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $417.69 million.Ark Invest held 30.48 million shares in Palantir, prior to Thursday’s trade, implying it trimmed nearly 16% of the total stake.The St. Petersburg, Florida-based investment management firm owns shares in Palantir via all of its active exchange-traded funds, including the flagship Ark Innovation ETF.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580887198114940","authorId":"3580887198114940","name":"ZeRoCoOl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765f5ee2c912615ba5335eeffc60c0b4","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580887198114940","authorIdStr":"3580887198114940"},"content":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying","text":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying","html":"Whatever she sells we can consider buying"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118409665,"gmtCreate":1622743043257,"gmtModify":1704190348232,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>???","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16428518e2b1fa08a153272ba749bce1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/118409665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184617701507184,"gmtCreate":1686097249857,"gmtModify":1686097253545,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K&nbsp;","listText":"K&nbsp;","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184617701507184","repostId":"2341619768","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184958170562640,"gmtCreate":1686195079187,"gmtModify":1686195082665,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184958170562640","repostId":"2341800265","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024412341,"gmtCreate":1653906154183,"gmtModify":1676535360526,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","listText":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","text":"SeekingAlpha trying too hard again and again 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024412341","repostId":"1135080799","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135080799","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653903477,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135080799?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-30 17:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Weight Of Evidence Is Building For A Significant Drop In Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135080799","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThis technical analysis article is about Tesla's lower low third wave breaking.There's a wave one 1242-708 and wave two 708-1152.There's a wave three breakdown from 1152 through 708.There's a l","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>This technical analysis article is about Tesla&#39;s lower low third wave breaking.</li><li>There&#39;s a wave one 1242-708 and wave two 708-1152.</li><li>There&#39;s a wave three breakdown from 1152 through 708.</li><li>There&#39;s a lower low three wave pattern under 708 support within the daily structure.</li><li>The target for Tesla is $176.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third wave has broken through in the current three wave pattern, with a focus on wave three replicating wave one to land at $176.</p><p>I have two young sons. One wants to be a vetand the other wants to build houses. I often mention that law is a good subject to study as it can provide an open-minded and educated approach to everyday scenarios we encounter. Unfortunately, I am greeted with looks of bemusement when I suggest this; I guess they&#39;re still a bit too young for that suggestion.</p><p>I find it intriguing how during the origins of modern civilization, human beings agreed on fundamental written laws that still stand today. It was the Romans that came up with the concepts of <i>actus reus</i>(guilty act) and <i>mens rea</i>(guilty mind). A criminal court must be able to prove both beyond reasonable doubt in order to secure a conviction.</p><p>Today, if one is accused of a crime, you have the right to silence in some societies. You may simply say &#34;speak to my lawyer&#34; and, by staying silent, not implicate yourself in even a matter as simple as, &#34;I knew the person,&#34; for example. And you can wait for disclosure from the prosecution before building a defense. If you are accused of a crime, and you protest your innocence or invoke your right to remain silent, the prosecution must build a weight of evidence to prove that you committed the crime.</p><p>It&#39;s the argument between the prosecution and defense that goes a long way to determining the winner or loser in a case, and it is that way of thinking (the argument for or against the evidence) where a galaxy of interpretations and complex strategies by legal professionals come to the fore. There is an expanding of the mind to paint a picture of what may or may not be for or against the evidence in question. The importance of evidence also translates into many other fields in life, along with the skills of interpretation and argument.</p><p>In the case of Tesla&#39;s share price vs. future direction, we have clear evidence of a three wave structure, with the third wave making a lower low on the monthly chart below the rejections of waves one and two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/899838289c124cfeddeabcac7ce87e2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1049\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><i>Source: Chart created by the author with data taken from cTrader.</i></p><p>We can clearly see a bullish rejection at $1,242, with the price retracing to $708. This we now know is a wave one. The next is wave two at $1,152-$708. A break of $708 also confirms the wave three.</p><p>Now we can look at the argument as to where Tesla could be headed. I put it to you that the only printed directional bearing we have in front of us is the wave one at $1,242-$708. I would also put it to you that when a wave three breaks, two eventualities will happen - either the wave three will numerically copy wave one or fall further and land, in this case, at $176, or the wave three will fail at its task and take out $1,242 before completing the former.</p><p>However, there is clear evidence to argue that Tesla is going in the direction of $176. There is a wave one bearing, a wave two mismatch between buyers and sellers, and a wave three technical breakthrough. The $176 target is derived from the principles of the Ward Three Wave theory, which states that if waves one and two were able to continue between two separate price points before finding significant rejection, wave three will look with high probability to numerically copy wave one before it finds its significant rejection.</p><p>When I wrote the book<i>The Ward Three Wave Theory</i>, I wrote a chapter that focuses on waves within waves. It describes how to identify scenarios just like the one in front of us, where the wave three has broken above or below waves one and two. Switching backward from the monthly chart, identifying waves within waves can add credence to the fact that the third wave is breaking support with intent.</p><p>When we switch to the daily chart and look at the $708 region, we can also clearly see a lower low three wave pattern breaking down into the $600 price region. This is further evidence that perhaps this is not merely a flash dip into a macro wave three, but a tangible time frame that could add further evidence that Tesla&#39;s share price is making additional miniature three wave patterns within the direction of its macro third wave.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82af1928ef9d2a660e03fc64ad712559\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1055\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla</p><p><i>Source: Chart created by the author with data taken from cTrader.</i></p><p>I would expect Tesla to complete its third wave within the next 90-120 days. The third wave has just broken through, with a target of $176 if wave three replicates the bearing set out by wave one. The share price could rise toward support at $708 and even challenge the highs of wave two before potentially dropping to complete the third wave. A move above $1,242 before touching $176 renders the third wave a fail.</p><p>I will be looking for bullish reversal three wave signals around that price area if the third wave completes. $176 might sound adventurous for Tesla&#39;s share price, but we must look at the evidence in front of us.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Weight Of Evidence Is Building For A Significant Drop In Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Weight Of Evidence Is Building For A Significant Drop In Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-30 17:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514972-tesla-could-see-a-significant-drop><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThis technical analysis article is about Tesla's lower low third wave breaking.There's a wave one 1242-708 and wave two 708-1152.There's a wave three breakdown from 1152 through 708.There's a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514972-tesla-could-see-a-significant-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4514972-tesla-could-see-a-significant-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135080799","content_text":"SummaryThis technical analysis article is about Tesla's lower low third wave breaking.There's a wave one 1242-708 and wave two 708-1152.There's a wave three breakdown from 1152 through 708.There's a lower low three wave pattern under 708 support within the daily structure.The target for Tesla is $176.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) third wave has broken through in the current three wave pattern, with a focus on wave three replicating wave one to land at $176.I have two young sons. One wants to be a vetand the other wants to build houses. I often mention that law is a good subject to study as it can provide an open-minded and educated approach to everyday scenarios we encounter. Unfortunately, I am greeted with looks of bemusement when I suggest this; I guess they're still a bit too young for that suggestion.I find it intriguing how during the origins of modern civilization, human beings agreed on fundamental written laws that still stand today. It was the Romans that came up with the concepts of actus reus(guilty act) and mens rea(guilty mind). A criminal court must be able to prove both beyond reasonable doubt in order to secure a conviction.Today, if one is accused of a crime, you have the right to silence in some societies. You may simply say \"speak to my lawyer\" and, by staying silent, not implicate yourself in even a matter as simple as, \"I knew the person,\" for example. And you can wait for disclosure from the prosecution before building a defense. If you are accused of a crime, and you protest your innocence or invoke your right to remain silent, the prosecution must build a weight of evidence to prove that you committed the crime.It's the argument between the prosecution and defense that goes a long way to determining the winner or loser in a case, and it is that way of thinking (the argument for or against the evidence) where a galaxy of interpretations and complex strategies by legal professionals come to the fore. There is an expanding of the mind to paint a picture of what may or may not be for or against the evidence in question. The importance of evidence also translates into many other fields in life, along with the skills of interpretation and argument.In the case of Tesla's share price vs. future direction, we have clear evidence of a three wave structure, with the third wave making a lower low on the monthly chart below the rejections of waves one and two.TeslaSource: Chart created by the author with data taken from cTrader.We can clearly see a bullish rejection at $1,242, with the price retracing to $708. This we now know is a wave one. The next is wave two at $1,152-$708. A break of $708 also confirms the wave three.Now we can look at the argument as to where Tesla could be headed. I put it to you that the only printed directional bearing we have in front of us is the wave one at $1,242-$708. I would also put it to you that when a wave three breaks, two eventualities will happen - either the wave three will numerically copy wave one or fall further and land, in this case, at $176, or the wave three will fail at its task and take out $1,242 before completing the former.However, there is clear evidence to argue that Tesla is going in the direction of $176. There is a wave one bearing, a wave two mismatch between buyers and sellers, and a wave three technical breakthrough. The $176 target is derived from the principles of the Ward Three Wave theory, which states that if waves one and two were able to continue between two separate price points before finding significant rejection, wave three will look with high probability to numerically copy wave one before it finds its significant rejection.When I wrote the bookThe Ward Three Wave Theory, I wrote a chapter that focuses on waves within waves. It describes how to identify scenarios just like the one in front of us, where the wave three has broken above or below waves one and two. Switching backward from the monthly chart, identifying waves within waves can add credence to the fact that the third wave is breaking support with intent.When we switch to the daily chart and look at the $708 region, we can also clearly see a lower low three wave pattern breaking down into the $600 price region. This is further evidence that perhaps this is not merely a flash dip into a macro wave three, but a tangible time frame that could add further evidence that Tesla's share price is making additional miniature three wave patterns within the direction of its macro third wave.TeslaSource: Chart created by the author with data taken from cTrader.I would expect Tesla to complete its third wave within the next 90-120 days. The third wave has just broken through, with a target of $176 if wave three replicates the bearing set out by wave one. The share price could rise toward support at $708 and even challenge the highs of wave two before potentially dropping to complete the third wave. A move above $1,242 before touching $176 renders the third wave a fail.I will be looking for bullish reversal three wave signals around that price area if the third wave completes. $176 might sound adventurous for Tesla's share price, but we must look at the evidence in front of us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9023385530,"gmtCreate":1652868058820,"gmtModify":1676535177513,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","listText":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","text":"Seeking Alpha trying too hard 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023385530","repostId":"1142044909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142044909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652887633,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142044909?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-18 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142044909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Tesla&#39;s stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk&#39;s planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.</li><li>Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there&#39;s a cost to be viewed as a tech company.</li><li>Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.</li><li>We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.</li></ul><p>Tesla&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company&#39;s market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk&#39;s Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we&#39;ll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.</p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp</p><p>Tesla&#39;s ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7055187c8a6996ce847e2854565136\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it&#39;s worth noting that the company&#39;s factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.</p><p>An example of this can be seen on Tesla&#39;s website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company&#39;s backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.</p><p>With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla&#39;s volume ramp as slowing down. It&#39;s telling that the company doesn&#39;t have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.</p><p>Tesla Energy Storage/Alternatives</p><p>Tesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c143000d4559bfef8336756f8721db1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor Presentation</p><p>The company&#39;s energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.</p><p>That means that as long as there&#39;s volume demand for the company&#39;s cars, the company&#39;s energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company&#39;s solar business. We&#39;ve discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It&#39;s decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.</p><p>Tesla Insurance</p><p>Another development for Tesla is the company&#39;s announcement that it&#39;s launching an insurance business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50de3780f98ffea0bd1f72d3395fe103\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR Law</p><p>Insurance isn&#39;t a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.</p><p>The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won&#39;t reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.</p><p>Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don&#39;t expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.</p><p>(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can&#39;t offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.</p><p>(2) Reputation. It&#39;s no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.</p><p>Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.</p><p>(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company&#39;s future shareholder returns.</p><p>Tesla and Tech, A Unique Downside</p><p>We want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a &gt;10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It&#39;s well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company&#39;s cars are.</p><p>However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company&#39;s cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company&#39;s cheapest car is more expensive.</p><p>More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla&#39;s unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company&#39;s products, especially higher end products.</p><p>Tesla Isn&#39;t Recession Proof</p><p>Tesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.</p><p>Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn&#39;t mean that they&#39;re making a profit. Tesla hasn&#39;t actually had to face a market downturn yet.</p><p>We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.</p><p>(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.</p><p>(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it&#39;s planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.</p><p><b>Thesis Risk</b></p><p>The largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company&#39;s competitors have struggled to compete. There&#39;s no guarantee that the company can&#39;t continue increasing market share and returns.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Tesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company&#39;s weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk&#39;s ownership and his pledging of the company&#39;s stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.</p><p>The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers&#39; vehicles such as Toyota&#39;s RAV4. We also view the company&#39;s position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Twitter-Tesla Downturn Is Merely The Start\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-18 23:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","TWTR":"Twitter"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4512479-twitter-tesla-downturn-is-merely-start","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142044909","content_text":"SummaryTesla's stock has suffered as a result of Elon Musk's planned Twitter acquisition and the potential for stock stales.Tesla has also been caught up with the overall tech stock sell-off, there's a cost to be viewed as a tech company.Tesla has the risk of being popular among popular tech workers, which have suffered more heavily than other market workers.We see Tesla as grossly overvalued and more likely to underperform from the market downturn.Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has suffered recently with the company's market cap dropping to less than $900 billion, after pressure from Elon Musk's Twitter (TWTR)investment and potential stock sales. Investors might be fooled into thinking that this short-term downturn from stock sales represents an investment opportunity, however, as we'll see, Tesla still remains significantly overvalued.Tesla Volume RampTesla's ability to continue succeeding is based on ramping volume and succeeding with new models.Tesla Volume Ramp - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company has been ramping up volume although its Shanghai factory has suffered from COVID-19 volatility. However, it's worth noting that the company's factories and focused capacity for the Model S/X/3 are effectively done. The company could ramp up the Model Y or other future projects, however, it shows the company sees demand for other vehicles as peaked.An example of this can be seen on Tesla's website. The cheapest Model 3 has an estimated delivery date of Aug-Nov 2022. The top end has a Jun-Aug 2022 delivery date. The top end Model Y is Jul-Sep 2022. The company's backlog has decreased substantially from its prior backlogs, and especially with the potential for a weaker market, we see that weakness continuing.With competition increasing significantly, we view Tesla's volume ramp as slowing down. It's telling that the company doesn't have any new factories planned for its Model 3/S/X.Tesla Energy Storage/AlternativesTesla has numerous alternative businesses including energy storage and other alternative businesses.Tesla Alternative Businesses - Tesla Investor PresentationThe company's energy storage business is the bright spot in its alternatives business. The company has seen deployments increase 90% YoY. However, the company does have some risks to the business here. First, energy storage is a worse use of capital from a profit perspective versus building cars. Tesla itself has admitted that before.That means that as long as there's volume demand for the company's cars, the company's energy storage will take a back seat. Second is the company's solar business. We've discussed this before, but this business is negligible. It's decreasing in size, has a single-digit market share and no competitive advantage.Tesla InsuranceAnother development for Tesla is the company's announcement that it's launching an insurance business.Insurance Underwriting Results - PMR LawInsurance isn't a high profit margin business. It relies on the generation of the float and the potential investments of the float to generate returns. A substantial insurance business can take advantage of a continuous float to invest and generate long-term returns without a significant negative impact to that float.The takeaway here is that insurance companies operate off of scale. Travelers is the 10th largest insurance company in the world, insures more than 2 million vehicles. Even with 100% of U.S. Tesla owners getting insurance through Tesla, the company won't reach that number. More so, even if it did, the insurance business would only be valued at a few billion $ based on peers.Warren Buffett whose Berkshire Hathaway owns GEICOrecently commented they don't expect Tesla to outperform here, given their data is mostly the same as the current insurers. Here, we believe the opposite is true. Not only will Tesla not outperform but the company could lose money or, in the event of a mistake, hurt a brand. We see three unique downsides for the company.(1) Multi-line discount. Most major insurers offer to bundle home insurance with multiple cars, home insurance, umbrella insurance, etc. Tesla can't offer those discounts to customers meaning that offering competitively priced insurance will be more difficult.(2) Reputation. It's no secret that Americans hate their insurance providers. Unfortunately, the premise of maximizing profits for the insurer is different from maximizing profits for the insuree. And oftentimes those competing interests come to clash at a tough time. Tesla will need to outperform its customers because of the reputational risk.Someone who has a bad experience with Tesla insurance might leave Tesla overall. No one buys a different car because they dislike Progressive.(3) Start Up Cost. Insurance is a crowded market without a high barrier to entry. However, Tesla will be spending substantial money to startup and join the industry. The company will be spending cost with no guarantee of returns, which is a risk for the company's future shareholder returns.Tesla and Tech, A Unique DownsideWe want to take the opportunity to highlight what we see as a unique risk for Tesla. The company is a massively popular car among tech industry employees. The carmaker has a >10% market share in California versus a 2% market share in the United States. It's well known in the hub of the technology industry how popular the company's cars are.However, we see this as a unique potential downside for Tesla. The company's cheapest cars clock in at 2x the cheapest car from the traditional low-cost manufacturers (Honda and Toyota) as the company has struggled to meet expectations. Even versus luxury manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, the company's cheapest car is more expensive.More so, the tech industry has suffered. After leading the bull market for the last 5 years, the market is now down roughly 25%. Given Tesla's unique positioning to tech industry employees, we expect the downturn will hurt the demand for the company's products, especially higher end products.Tesla Isn't Recession ProofTesla has reasonably strong cash and cash equivalents at roughly $18 billion. However, the car industry is incredibly capitally intensive, and losses ramp up significantly during a market downturn.Through the 2008 recession, U.S.carmakers lost $10s of billions. Capitol obligations can be difficult to avoid in the industry with factories needing to be kept running because the cost of shutting them off is even more expensive. However, that doesn't mean that they're making a profit. Tesla hasn't actually had to face a market downturn yet.We expect there are two factors here that will again make Tesla less likely to survive a recession.(1) People cut spending during a recession. Tesla is effectively a luxury brand at its pricing. In 2008, Toyota outperformed. During an upcoming recession, we expect Tesla to similarly underperform in line with luxury brands. They also might be less willing to try the uncertainty of an electric vehicle.(2) Capital growth. Tesla is focused on growing substantially, and as we saw above, has numerous factories that it's planning to build. Those capital obligations without production could cause the company to have higher losses than companies only maintaining existing factories. That risk is worth paying close attention to.Thesis RiskThe largest risk to our thesis is that Tesla is a unique company that has a proven ability to outperform. The company, in many ways, defined electric vehicles as a segment, especially luxury vehicles, and the company's competitors have struggled to compete. There's no guarantee that the company can't continue increasing market share and returns.ConclusionTesla is now 40% below its 52-week highs. The company's weakness was exacerbated by Elon Musk's ownership and his pledging of the company's stock against his Twitter acquisition. That sell-off accelerated as a result of the general technology sell-off in the markets. Despite this underperformance, we see that as just the start.The company is showing peak demand with no additional factories planned for the Model S/X/3. Most vehicle purchases can see delivery with is shorter delays than other manufacturers' vehicles such as Toyota's RAV4. We also view the company's position in the tech markets as a unique risk to its business model. As a result, we continue to recommend against investing in Tesla.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902812685,"gmtCreate":1659667886949,"gmtModify":1705311919850,"author":{"id":"3574039054333528","authorId":"3574039054333528","name":"JunHoe","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/656c878ab3cf971424bc92a0be4aebd9","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574039054333528","authorIdStr":"3574039054333528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>👌","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>👌","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$👌","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf107891cbb4ef9b343f73160b939ea2","width":"1170","height":"4134"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902812685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}