USD The US Dollar traded unevenly, showing a softening trend against major peers like the Euro and Japanese Yen due to improved global risk sentiment. Speculative positioning has become heavily skewed toward USD selling, with gross short positions across eight IMM currency futures more than doubling to a six-month high of USD 17.4 billion. JPM economists continue to see global GDP staying resilient at 2.8%, with consumers as a key driver. GS economists anticipate a +45k headline NFP print and a 33bp core CPI reading for January, noting that January reports often provide outsized FX reactions. Nomura reported that year-ahead inflation expectations in the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations moved lower to 3.09%, the lowest since July 2025. Goldman Sachs traders warned that US stocks face

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Erases All Post-Election Gains, Plunging to $62K Amid "Full Capitulation" Bitcoin has officially wiped out all gains made since Donald Trump's 2024 election victory, crashing to a low of $62,200 on February 5 before stabilizing near $65,000. The collapse marks a 30% correction from its January peak, driven by a "perfect storm" of macro headwinds: dismal U.S. economic data, fears of an AI bubble burst, and intense geopolitical strain. On-chain metrics scream "capitulation," with Glassnode reporting the second-largest forced selling spike in two years. Despite the carnage, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw record daily volume of $10 billion, suggesting that while retail panics, institutions are stepping in to absorb the liquidity event. The market mood is grim, with sentiment hi

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 as Bulls Defend "Weakest Bear Case "Bitcoin has staged a recovery, reclaiming the $70,000 psychological level after plunging to a 15-month low under $62,000 last week. The rebound is driven by a mix of institutional buying and whale accumulation. Binance bolstered its SAFU fund with a massive **$300 million Bitcoin purchase** (4,225 BTC), while Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired an additional 1,142 BTC for $90 million. These corporate moves have acted as a backstop, absorbing the selling pressure that erased $500 billion from the market cap since mid-January. Analysts at Bernstein have doubled down on their bullish outlook, calling the recent sell-off the "weakest bear case on record" and reaffirming a $150,000 target for 2026. They cite tig

Bitcoin (BTC) Bitcoin Recovers Above $72,000 as Institutional Bulls Defend Long-Term Thesis Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a modest recovery, climbing back above the $72,000 mark ($72,222) after a brutal week of selling that saw prices dip below $60,000. Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction remains unshaken. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor hinted at further accumulation with his "Orange Dots Matter" post, suggesting the firm is buying the dip even as its holdings sit below cost basis with a $3.4 billion unrealized loss. Similarly, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called the sub-$70k levels a "once-in-a-lifetime" entry point, reinforcing the narrative that smart money is absorbing the panic selling. However, the market is navigating significant headwinds

USD The US Dollar is experiencing a significant shift in market dynamics as analysts observe a breakdown in traditional economic correlations. According to an ex-Goldman Sachs strategist, a decade-long trend of the USD rising on better-than-expected monthly payrolls is coming to an end. This marks a structural "regime change" where traders are now actively selling the greenback despite strong US job market data. The core driver behind this shift is the market's overarching expectation that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates. Even after the January jobs report showed an impressive 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3%, the USD ended the trading session lower, capping four straight days of losses. The market is interpreting that if the Fed adopts policies

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis The global crude oil market is currently navigating a highly volatile and complex landscape defined by acute geopolitical tensions, significant inventory shifts, and deeply divided analyst forecasts. Prices have surged to multi-month highs, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing at a six-month high of $66.43 per barrel and April Brent reaching $71.68 per barrel, driven primarily by escalating fears of a military conflict between the United States and Iran [Argus]. The Trump Administration has aggressively repositioned naval and air force assets, including moving the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group toward the Mediterranean, sharply elevating the geopolitical risk premium as traders fear potential disruptions to the critical Strait of Hormuz [Argus

Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Infrastructure Expansion Counters Macro Pressures‌ Bitcoin is currently trading in the $66,000 to $67,162 range, having retraced significantly from its previous peaks, with analysts at Glassnode pointing to a range-bound market confined between $79,000 and the $54,900 realized price floor [The Block]. Despite short-term price stagnation and a fragile accumulation pattern, institutional infrastructure continues to expand at a rapid pace. CME Group announced plans to launch 24/7 Bitcoin futures and options trading on May 29, pending regulatory approval, citing a record $3 trillion in notional volume across its crypto derivatives [The Block]. In the corporate treasury space, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich publicly defended his firm's systematic Bitcoin accumulation

1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Global markets are trading with a distinct "risk-off" tone as "AI jitters" trigger a broad sell-off in technology stocks, spilling over into commodities and high-beta currencies. The US Dollar has steadied after recent weakness, while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are outperforming as investors seek safety. Geopolitical tensions remain a backdrop, with the market closely watching US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing "noisy" interpretation of US labor data. Key Themes: Macro Ambiguity: The US January NFP report delivered a "headline beat" of 130k jobs but was undermined by massive negative revisions (-862k through March 2025), complicating the Fed's policy path [Saxo]. JPY Resurgence: Hedge funds have aggressively flipped to a net bullish stance on