+Follow
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
No personal profile
709
Follow
35
Followers
0
Topic
0
Badge
Posts
Hot
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-12
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-11
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-10
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-09
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-08
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-08
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-04
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-12-03
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-11-28
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-11-24
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-11-03
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-10-16
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-21
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-17
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-15
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-08
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-09-07
$富途控股(FUTU)$
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2022-06-21
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
70
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2021-06-11
Tiger is here
Sorry, the original content has been removed
被幸运女神眷顾的男人
2021-06-11
Tiger is here
以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
Go to Tiger App to see more news
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3574308930111981,"uuid":"3574308930111981","gmtCreate":1611220550604,"gmtModify":1617343195969,"name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","pinyin":"bxynsjgdnrbeixingyunnvshenjuangudenanren","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":35,"headSize":709,"tweetSize":311,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":6,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.08%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.04.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 30","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.33%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":9923177238,"gmtCreate":1670816396825,"gmtModify":1676538439509,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923177238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923020078,"gmtCreate":1670759970395,"gmtModify":1676538428979,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923020078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929204642,"gmtCreate":1670666299186,"gmtModify":1676538414611,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929204642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929993186,"gmtCreate":1670578785145,"gmtModify":1676538397873,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929993186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920670830,"gmtCreate":1670489511821,"gmtModify":1676538379075,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920670830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920383748,"gmtCreate":1670431306085,"gmtModify":1676538367178,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920383748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964679462,"gmtCreate":1670144070257,"gmtModify":1676538310041,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964679462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965485266,"gmtCreate":1669998576156,"gmtModify":1676538286534,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965485266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966788186,"gmtCreate":1669646115546,"gmtModify":1676538217991,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966788186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968410694,"gmtCreate":1669286754819,"gmtModify":1676538178977,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968410694","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985244485,"gmtCreate":1667414463048,"gmtModify":1676537913401,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985244485","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989381467,"gmtCreate":1665907039659,"gmtModify":1676537678442,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989381467","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919895728,"gmtCreate":1663768414265,"gmtModify":1676537332458,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919895728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937669086,"gmtCreate":1663422101946,"gmtModify":1676537268471,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937669086","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934848369,"gmtCreate":1663224146251,"gmtModify":1676537231779,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934848369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938400104,"gmtCreate":1662644223008,"gmtModify":1676537108357,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938400104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938988773,"gmtCreate":1662542516292,"gmtModify":1676537084292,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938988773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049872924,"gmtCreate":1655778929469,"gmtModify":1676535703790,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>70","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>70","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$70","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/786c8f2b4cb1faaee604a94979c09e4b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049872924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181284312,"gmtCreate":1623396626336,"gmtModify":1704202482957,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181284312","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181281116,"gmtCreate":1623396412935,"gmtModify":1704202476222,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181281116","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9937669086,"gmtCreate":1663422101946,"gmtModify":1676537268471,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937669086","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989381467,"gmtCreate":1665907039659,"gmtModify":1676537678442,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989381467","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938400104,"gmtCreate":1662644223008,"gmtModify":1676537108357,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938400104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049872924,"gmtCreate":1655778929469,"gmtModify":1676535703790,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>70","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>70","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$70","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/786c8f2b4cb1faaee604a94979c09e4b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049872924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181284312,"gmtCreate":1623396626336,"gmtModify":1704202482957,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181284312","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923177238,"gmtCreate":1670816396825,"gmtModify":1676538439509,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923177238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923020078,"gmtCreate":1670759970395,"gmtModify":1676538428979,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923020078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929204642,"gmtCreate":1670666299186,"gmtModify":1676538414611,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929204642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929993186,"gmtCreate":1670578785145,"gmtModify":1676538397873,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929993186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920670830,"gmtCreate":1670489511821,"gmtModify":1676538379075,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920670830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964679462,"gmtCreate":1670144070257,"gmtModify":1676538310041,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964679462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965485266,"gmtCreate":1669998576156,"gmtModify":1676538286534,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965485266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966788186,"gmtCreate":1669646115546,"gmtModify":1676538217991,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966788186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968410694,"gmtCreate":1669286754819,"gmtModify":1676538178977,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968410694","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985244485,"gmtCreate":1667414463048,"gmtModify":1676537913401,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985244485","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919895728,"gmtCreate":1663768414265,"gmtModify":1676537332458,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919895728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934848369,"gmtCreate":1663224146251,"gmtModify":1676537231779,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934848369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938988773,"gmtCreate":1662542516292,"gmtModify":1676537084292,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938988773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181281116,"gmtCreate":1623396412935,"gmtModify":1704202476222,"author":{"id":"3574308930111981","authorId":"3574308930111981","name":"被幸运女神眷顾的男人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce1f94e85c864b88db709bfc3c7a74f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here","listText":"Tiger is here","text":"Tiger is here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/181281116","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
