China's 2025 trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion, up 20% from 2024, with exports to the EU rising 8.4% while imports fell 0.4%, boosting the bilateral surplus by 18.1%; the surge with Germany was extreme at 108%, now comprising nearly a third of China's EU surplus, as verified by official customs data. U.S. tariffs under Trump reduced bilateral trade—exports to the U.S. dropped 20%, imports 14.6%—prompting China to redirect subsidized goods like EVs and solar panels to Europe, exploiting open markets and undervalued currency to undercut local producers. Germany's auto sector, reliant on China for sales, faces deindustrialization risks from this influx, mirroring broader EU vulnerabilities; a 2025 IMF report notes such overcapacity could erode 2-3% of EU manufacturing output ann

My Investing Muse (05Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news My Final Thoughts Venezuela and Greenland: Emerging Tensions It takes more than Delta Force to get the Venezuelan oil - dilution, extracting, blending, transporting, storing, sour and more. Investments are needed for hardware, software, skilled labour, maintenance, infrastructure, supply chain, management and more. Remember Afghanistan & Iran? As of 2026, Venezuela’s rare earth output is zero, with no significant processing capacity due to political instability and lack of infrastructure. Reserves in the Orinoco Arc are estimated at 300,000+ metric tons, worth $200B+. Improvements: Foreign investment (e.g., U.S. partnerships), infrastructure upgrades, eco-friendly mining tech, and political stability post-Maduro could

News and my thoughts from the past week (12Jan2026) China has 34 nuclear reactors under construction. The USA has no large nuclear reactors under construction. No power expansion means no AI expansion - X user Jason Smith. We can print money, but we cannot print energy. Collectively, the amount of Billionaire wealth that has left California in the last month is now in excess of $700B. That means the $2T of California wealth they expected to tax is now down to $1.3T and falling quickly. I would not be surprised if 2026 ended with less than $1T of billionaire wealth in California and decades and hundreds of lawsuits. - Chamath Palihapitiya Without being able to charge rates adequate enough to cover losses and to earn an adequate return on equity, credit card lenders will cancel cards for mil

Market Outlook of S&P500 (12Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to move in a bullish pattern. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.07 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates

Earnings Calendar (12Jan2026) In the upcoming week, several major companies are scheduled to report their earnings. Key players include JP Morgan, Delta Air Lines, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Bank of America, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock. Let us look at Delta Airlines. Airline earnings are often called the "Canary in the Coal Mine" for the global economy. Because the industry is highly cyclical and sensitive to shifts in spending, its financial reports provide a real-time health check on everything from consumer confidence to global trade. Airline earnings act as an economic barometer. Leisure demand reflects consumer spending power, while premium bookings signal corporate confidence. Air cargo volumes track global trade

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Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 12Jan2026) Inflation Indicators The primary economic figure to monitor in the coming week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The previous CPI reading stands at 2.7%, serving as a key benchmark for inflation. This data point will be closely analysed by the Federal Reserve as it considers its next decision regarding interest rates. In addition to the CPI, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is another significant measure of inflation to observe. The most recent month-over-month PPI data for November was 0.3%. The PPI reflects inflation at the producer level and is often seen as a leading indicator, as increases in producer costs can eventually be passed down to consumers. Bond Market Activity It is also important to keep an eye on the

This article is released by MorningStar on 31Dec2025. This is not financial advice. Please do our due diligence. 10 Best Stocks to Buy Now—January 2026 The 10 most undervalued stocks from our Best Companies to Own list as of Dec. 30, 2025, were: Campbell’s CPB Coloplast CLPBY Clorox CLX Yum China YUMC Constellation Brands STZ Zimmer Biomet ZBH Tyler Technologies TYL Ambev ABEV Diageo DEO Dassault Systèmes DASTY Here’s a little bit about why we like each of these companies at these prices, along with some key Morningstar metrics. All data is as of market close on Dec. 30. Here are 3 of the write-ups from the same Morningstar article. Personally, I do understand the criteria used and I may avoid some these companies. Campbell’s Price/Fair Value: 0.47 Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium Mo

News and my thoughts from the past week (05Jan2026) Chamath: Fraud at this scale will end the American Empire if nothing is done Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $382 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 479 companies in the S&P 500. Private credit firms purchased or committed to buy a record $136 billion of consumer loans in 2025. This includes credit cards, buy now pay later (BNPL), and other consumer finance products. This is nearly +1,300% more than in 2024, when purchases totalled $10 billion. In other words, private investment funds are increasingly owning consumer debt. One example is KKR, which agreed to buy a multibillion-Dollar portfolio of credit card loans from New Day, a private equity-backed lender in Europe. Most of this debt is not backed

Market Outlook of S&P500 (05Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator Following the recent top crossover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to suggest a downtrend. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook. There is a potential convergence that implies a trend change. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers

Earnings Calendar (05Jan2026) There are several notable earnings announcements, including those from RGP, Jefferies, AAR, NTI, and MSC. Let us look into NTI. Stock Analysis and Sentiment Technical analysis currently recommends a “strong buy” for NTIC, which aligns with prevailing analyst sentiment. The consensus target price is $13.00, representing a potential upside of over 60%. Previous Earnings Review NTI’s revenue has grown significantly over the past decade, rising from $33 million in 2016 to $84 million in 2025. The company has reported operating losses each year since 2016, recording a $9 million loss in 2016 and a $6 million loss in 2025. NTI maintains a gross profit margin of 33.6% based on a 10-year median, while its free cash flow (FCF) margin stands at 3.6%. Despite a compound

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 05Jan2026) Manufacturing Sector Outlook The ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices for December are set to be released in the coming week. Current forecasts anticipate contractionary pressures within the manufacturing sector, with the PMI expected at 48.4. Meanwhile, manufacturing prices are forecasted at 59.0, suggesting continued inflationary pressures affecting costs in this area. Non-Manufacturing and Services Sector Data for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices will also be published. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected at 52.2, indicating an expansion in the services sector for December. Last month’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Price stood at 65.4, which points to significant infl

These are some of the worst performing stocks in 2025 from S&P500. Source of chart is Charlie Bilello. Are these great opportunities or is it time to exit them? $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$   $Dow Chemical(DOW)$  

My Investing Muse (29Dec25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news This offshoring jobs to India and other countries thing was already happening. It has been for quite some time. - X user Amanda Goodall L.A.’s entertainment economy is spiralling downward: Work is evaporating, businesses are closing, and the city’s creative middle class is hanging on by a thread. - WSJ "The job market is so bad, people in their 40s are resorting to going back to school instead of looking for work," per FORTUNE “Auto Delinquencies Hit Record High as Consumers Caught Off Guard.” “PYMNTS Intelligence data showed that 34% of consumers who live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to pay their bills have had to spend more than usual in the past six months, which in turn has eaten into their savings. The cost of foo

News and my thoughts from the past week (29Dec25) Private equity firms are struggling in late 2025 due to high interest rates, tariffs, and a weak economy. This has created a record backlog of over 30,000 unsold companies, hurting investors (like pension funds and wealthy individuals) by locking up their money longer, delaying cash payouts, and causing returns to lag the stock market. To raise quick cash, more firms are selling small stakes in their own management companies—a trend continuing strongly into 2025 and beyond. This helps the firms but signals ongoing industry weakness that impacts investor returns. (Source is WSJ) - X user Kristen Shaughnessy Debts, deliquencies and defaults from federal, private equity, shadow banking, junk bonds, corporate credit, consumer debts like credit