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2021-03-08

all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them

How to handle market declines

2022-10-04

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-03

[微笑]

Robots, a new bet for America's richest man

2022-10-01

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-12-01

[微笑]

"Survived"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue

2022-10-17

[微笑]

UK tax cuts make a U-turn!

2022-03-13

up

Reminder: U.S. daylight saving time on the 13th, U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier

2021-08-06

?

"North American Alipay" Square continues to rise, hitting a record high

2021-03-01

looking forward to long term

Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers

2022-12-10

[惊讶]

Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm

2022-11-10

[微笑]

SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million

2022-11-05

[捂脸]

Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being

2022-11-01

[惊讶]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-15

[笑哭]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-05

[微笑]

U.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%

2022-09-24

[捂脸]

What should growth investors do as the sell-off in U.S. tech stocks ramps up?

2022-09-10

[微笑]

Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter

2022-02-16

👍

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-13

🈷️

What does it mean that the growth of science and technology begins to appear "desperate cost-effectiveness"?

2022-01-22

👍

Sorry, the original content has been removed

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11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? 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The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920330820,"gmtCreate":1670429138960,"gmtModify":1676538366441,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920330820","repostId":"1166364006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166364006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1670420490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166364006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166364006","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the U.S. economy is coming, and the \"chill\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not groundless. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"(reducing) the number of employees is being considered,\" but did not provide specific details. At the beginning of last month, some media also broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly created the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower in investment banks, which caused them to change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Not only did they suspend layoffs, but they carried out large-scale recruitment, do everything possible to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020 before the epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, and the risk of recession has increased day by day, the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>The trading volume of investment banks was 2,273 transactions, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, and the transaction value was US $289 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64%.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have obviously moved faster in layoffs. Goldman Sachs started the largest round of layoffs since the epidemic in September, and Citigroup, Barclays and others all joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America's attitude seems to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference Tuesday:</p><p><b>We won't cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust headcount based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America in the past two years has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000. As of September 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, about 3,900 more than the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank was slowing hiring as fewer employees decided to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe wave of layoffs on Wall Street is accelerating! Morgan Stanley cuts 1600 jobs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 21:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the U.S. economy is coming, and the \"chill\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not groundless. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"(reducing) the number of employees is being considered,\" but did not provide specific details. At the beginning of last month, some media also broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly created the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower in investment banks, which caused them to change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Not only did they suspend layoffs, but they carried out large-scale recruitment, do everything possible to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020 before the epidemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, and the risk of recession has increased day by day, the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>The trading volume of investment banks was 2,273 transactions, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, and the transaction value was US $289 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 64%.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have obviously moved faster in layoffs. Goldman Sachs started the largest round of layoffs since the epidemic in September, and Citigroup, Barclays and others all joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America's attitude seems to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference Tuesday:</p><p><b>We won't cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust headcount based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America in the past two years has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000. As of September 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, about 3,900 more than the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank was slowing hiring as fewer employees decided to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166364006","content_text":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600名员工。大规模裁员的消息并非空穴来风。大摩董事长兼首席执行官James Gorman在三季度财报电话会上表示，“正在考虑（减少）员工人数”，但没有提供具体细节。上月初，也有媒体爆出大摩即将裁员的消息。疫情爆发期间，美联储打开闸门肆意放水，间接造就了投行交易业务的繁荣，同时也导致投行出现人手不足的局面，令其一改在奖金季来临之前裁员的做法，不仅暂停裁员，反而进行大规模招聘，出尽手段招揽人才。大摩也是这样做的。截至今年第三季度末，摩根士丹利的员工人数接近8.2万名，比2020年第一季度疫情在欧美爆发之前飙升了34%。然而今年以来，由于美联储持续激进加息，金融环境快速收紧，衰退风险与日俱增，投行业的交易增长大幅萎缩。安永会计师事务所表示，美国今年第三季度，投行的交易量为2273笔交易，同比下降36%，交易金额为2890亿美元，同比下降64%。与大摩相比，其他投行在裁员方面的行动显然更加迅速。高盛从9月就开启了疫情以来最大的一轮裁员，花旗、巴克莱等本月初都加入了最新裁员企业名单中。同样面对即将到来的衰退，美银的态度似乎更加从容。美银首席执行官Brian Moynihan认为没有裁员的必要。Moynihan周二在一次财务会议上表示：我们不会裁员，但我们有能力根据员工流动情况迅速调整员工数量。Moynihan表示，美银这两年的员工数量在20.5万-21.5万之间浮动。截至9月30日，该行共雇用了21.3万名员工，比去年同期增加约3900人。不过，他补充说：我们的员工总数约为21.5万人，我们需要对这一数字进行回调。Moynihan还表示，由于决定离职的员工越来越少，该行正在放缓招聘速度，以期在经济衰退到来之前控制员工数量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967246370,"gmtCreate":1670340256390,"gmtModify":1676538347883,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967246370","repostId":"1195902581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195902581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1670305215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195902581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195902581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 slowed down further, basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospects of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure, and what impact it will have on the subsequent trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trend: Earnings continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributions, while finance and technology are a greater drag</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third quarter EPS was-1% year-on-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding rate of the S&P 500 dropped from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the pre-epidemic average was 5.4%), and the proportion of exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-epidemic average was 71%). Overall, under high costs and low demand, a further slowdown in U.S. stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 Index EPS-1% year-on-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The profit exceeding expectations of the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter continued to fall compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies that exceeded expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, consumer staples, and healthcare still exceed expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and staple consumption are the highest</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductors and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound in oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was US $98/barrel vs. US $73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS reached 152%, 149%, and 68% respectively.%, the growth rates of automobiles and parts, real estate, etc. are also in the forefront (40%, 39%). In contrast, financials were under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs.-26% in the second quarter). Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to US $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and slowing loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and clothing, semiconductors and media entertainment also dropped significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1 ppt), optional consumption (1.2 ppt), and transportation (1.1 ppt) are the main contributors, with communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragging down significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services, and transportation profits in the third quarter were still significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate, and banks increased, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate in the third quarter, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2 ppt, and communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services dragged down significantly, reaching-1.2,-1.1, and-0.9 ppt respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stock market, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong U.S. dollar, and high inflation. Management stated that it will control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, the performance of META technology leaders in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the relatively high proportion of overseas revenue of technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), the strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net profit also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter as a non-financial proportion of the S&P 500. Many companies have said they will slow down hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a cost-cutting plan of tens of billions of dollars.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of the third quarter performance of leading U.S. technology stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (the proportion of overseas revenue is the proportion of overseas revenue of each company except the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market value share of US technology leaders (FAAMNG) has dropped from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 Index performance has a significant negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net profit in the third quarter was-12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins, and industries with low inventories have stronger bargaining power as demand falls</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall amid cooling demand, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>The revenue of the S&P 500 in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-on-year (non-financial 9.6%), which continued to fall from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors fell significantly. At the same time, high costs continue to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of the S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also dropped from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After deducting the energy sector, the net profit margin in the third quarter has fallen back to 10.3% (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities sectors rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials, and media entertainment declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: The non-financial income of the S&P 500 Index fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the growth rate of energy, transportation, and raw material revenue dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 Index fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy index fell to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The net profit margins of consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities increased significantly, but software and services, media entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventories can still rely on price increases to ease the pressure on profits.</b>For example, due to high inventory of semiconductors and insufficient bargaining power due to weakening demand, sales revenue has declined significantly, and interest rates have also continued to be under pressure (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, and the average since 2013 was 52.5%; net profit margin continued to fall back to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, for automobiles and parts, as inventories are still insufficient, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average since 2013 4.1%). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand will gradually erode its profitability after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year.</p><p><b>Chart: The sales revenue of the semiconductor sector, whose inventory is still high in the third quarter, has declined, and the gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the auto and parts segment, which was still insufficient in inventory, continued to rise, and the gross profit margin remained stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Growth quality: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand fell; Repurchases decreased; Leverage flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of the S&P 500 fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and operating cash flow and cash in hand decreased; Buybacks fell and capital expenditures rose. From the perspective of leverage, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: The ROE of the S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After deducting energy, ROE fell back to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio increased slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash in hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of the S&P 500 continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs amid the continued tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter (US $296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the S&P 500 non-financial and non-energy cash in hand fell from US $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to US $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand in total assets for optional consumption, communication services and information technology all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of the non-financial sector continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow of energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance scale of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was US $296.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand in the third quarter fell to US $1.59 trillion from the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and medical care have increased significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to fall.</b>S&P 500 buybacks fell from US $225.7 billion in the second quarter to US $196 billion in the third quarter, accounting for 2.8% of market value from 3% in the second quarter. However, buybacks in the energy sector are still strong (their proportion of market value rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, repurchases in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than the 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 repurchases to recurring EPS growth increased slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The disclosed repurchase amount continued to fall from the previous quarter, approximately US $196 billion, accounting for 2.8% of the market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, optional consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and public utilities and real estate account for the lowest proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchases contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 repurchases contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage is flat, but solvency is down.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 basically remained at 77% in the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate provision ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) dropped from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest provision ratio of individual stocks dropped from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate fell in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter remained at 60% in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage ratios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate provision ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but it is difficult to hide the slowdown</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has dropped.</b>In \"The Asset Meaning of Active Destocking in the United States\", we pointed out that the United States has entered the stage of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of the S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventories has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit reduction (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking stage is 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: The total non-financial inventory scale of the S&P 500 continued to rise in the third quarter, while the inventory of raw materials and finished products fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit reduction in the active destocking stage (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) is around 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may be difficult to hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of the S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after deducting energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technology hardware, semiconductors, etc. being more obvious. From the perspective of macro indicators, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. 5.3% vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment increased significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Biden administration's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act respectively in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Mid-term Elections\"). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on U.S. growth, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may also be further suppressed (several local Fed surveys show that corporate asset expenditures in the next six months are expected to fall again since August this year, \"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures on retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded pre-epidemic levels, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The growth rate of equipment investment in the third quarter, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Corporate asset expenditure expectations for the next six months surveyed by multiple local Fed surveys have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring comprehensive demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure and leverage, we found<b>Semiconductor</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media Entertainment</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and leverage) greater pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventory) and<b>Transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is low) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor, media entertainment, consumer services and other inventories is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditures such as energy, transportation, and semiconductors in the third quarter is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and clothing, and retail in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The leverage ratios of consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, semiconductors, etc. are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We found that semiconductors, media entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation are also worth watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock profits may continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and are expected to be-5% in 2023; If the market wants to rise, it may need to be suppressed first, and it will bear molecular pressure in the second quarter</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing costs across the board in the United States have exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, gradually moving towards recession may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recessionary pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of review's 18 rounds of recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on return on investment will not be obvious.<b>It will not cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range of 3m10s is 150bp). Against this background, U.S. stock profits are likely to continue to fall, but the adjustment will not be very large. Currently, we expect that the profit growth rate in 2023 may drop to-5.5%, which still has room for downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment grade bond real yield-real GDP year-on-year growth rate The spread exceeded the threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread began to invert in early November and is currently inverted by ~ 75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current U.S. high-yield bond yield is 8.4%, and the spread with the U.S. stock ROIC is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8% respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 Index to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still not cheap valuation combined with the increased recessionary pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make U.S. stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 x, higher than the historical average of 16.2 x since 1990. The current tightening decline and the elimination of upside risks in the US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, under the increasing pressure of recession in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to get compensation from the denominator immediately. After market fluctuations may force out easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of Federal Reserve Policy and Three Stages of Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~ 3.8% corresponding to the low point at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of the S&P 500 is ~ 15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~ 3.8% 10-year US Treasury yields correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 ~ 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. 15%. However, we expect the end of the year to be ~ 5% higher than the current point (\"Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise, you may need to suppress it first\".)</p><p><b>Chart: The 12-month dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen back to a relatively low of 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 index profit adjustment sentiment continues to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. But we expect the year-end point to be ~ 5% higher than the current point</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock profits continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and the market may need to suppress if it wants to rise\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-06 13:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 slowed down further, basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospects of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure, and what impact it will have on the subsequent trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trend: Earnings continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributions, while finance and technology are a greater drag</b></p><p><b>U.S. stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third quarter EPS was-1% year-on-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding rate of the S&P 500 dropped from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the pre-epidemic average was 5.4%), and the proportion of exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-epidemic average was 71%). Overall, under high costs and low demand, a further slowdown in U.S. stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 Index EPS-1% year-on-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The profit exceeding expectations of the S&P 500 Index in the third quarter continued to fall compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies that exceeded expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, consumer staples, and healthcare still exceed expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and staple consumption are the highest</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductors and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound in oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was US $98/barrel vs. US $73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS reached 152%, 149%, and 68% respectively.%, the growth rates of automobiles and parts, real estate, etc. are also in the forefront (40%, 39%). In contrast, financials were under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs.-26% in the second quarter). Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>, Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to US $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and slowing loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and clothing, semiconductors and media entertainment also dropped significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1 ppt), optional consumption (1.2 ppt), and transportation (1.1 ppt) are the main contributors, with communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragging down significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services, and transportation profits in the third quarter were still significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate, and banks increased, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate in the third quarter, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2 ppt, and communication services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services dragged down significantly, reaching-1.2,-1.1, and-0.9 ppt respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stock market, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong U.S. dollar, and high inflation. Management stated that it will control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>, the performance of META technology leaders in the third quarter was lower than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the relatively high proportion of overseas revenue of technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), the strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net profit also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter as a non-financial proportion of the S&P 500. Many companies have said they will slow down hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a cost-cutting plan of tens of billions of dollars.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of the third quarter performance of leading U.S. technology stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (the proportion of overseas revenue is the proportion of overseas revenue of each company except the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market value share of US technology leaders (FAAMNG) has dropped from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 Index performance has a significant negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a proportion of S&P 500 non-financial fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net profit in the third quarter was-12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins, and industries with low inventories have stronger bargaining power as demand falls</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall amid cooling demand, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>The revenue of the S&P 500 in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-on-year (non-financial 9.6%), which continued to fall from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors fell significantly. At the same time, high costs continue to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of the S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also dropped from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After deducting the energy sector, the net profit margin in the third quarter has fallen back to 10.3% (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities sectors rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials, and media entertainment declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: The non-financial income of the S&P 500 Index fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the growth rate of energy, transportation, and raw material revenue dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the non-financial sector of the S&P 500 Index fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy index fell to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The net profit margins of consumer services, household personal products, and public utilities increased significantly, but software and services, media entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventories can still rely on price increases to ease the pressure on profits.</b>For example, due to high inventory of semiconductors and insufficient bargaining power due to weakening demand, sales revenue has declined significantly, and interest rates have also continued to be under pressure (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, and the average since 2013 was 52.5%; net profit margin continued to fall back to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, for automobiles and parts, as inventories are still insufficient, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average since 2013 4.1%). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand will gradually erode its profitability after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year.</p><p><b>Chart: The sales revenue of the semiconductor sector, whose inventory is still high in the third quarter, has declined, and the gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the auto and parts segment, which was still insufficient in inventory, continued to rise, and the gross profit margin remained stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Growth quality: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand fell; Repurchases decreased; Leverage flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of the S&P 500 fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and operating cash flow and cash in hand decreased; Buybacks fell and capital expenditures rose. From the perspective of leverage, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: The ROE of the S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After deducting energy, ROE fell back to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin fell, asset turnover rate and leverage ratio increased slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash in hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of the S&P 500 continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs amid the continued tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter (US $296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the S&P 500 non-financial and non-energy cash in hand fell from US $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to US $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand in total assets for optional consumption, communication services and information technology all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of the non-financial sector continued to fall year-on-year in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow of energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance scale of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was US $296.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand in the third quarter fell to US $1.59 trillion from the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and medical care have increased significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to fall.</b>S&P 500 buybacks fell from US $225.7 billion in the second quarter to US $196 billion in the third quarter, accounting for 2.8% of market value from 3% in the second quarter. However, buybacks in the energy sector are still strong (their proportion of market value rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, repurchases in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than the 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 repurchases to recurring EPS growth increased slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The disclosed repurchase amount continued to fall from the previous quarter, approximately US $196 billion, accounting for 2.8% of the market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, optional consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and public utilities and real estate account for the lowest proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchases contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 repurchases contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, which continued to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage is flat, but solvency is down.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of the S&P 500 basically remained at 77% in the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate provision ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) dropped from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest provision ratio of individual stocks dropped from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate fell in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter remained at 60% in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage ratios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate provision ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks in the third quarter fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but it is difficult to hide the slowdown</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has dropped.</b>In \"The Asset Meaning of Active Destocking in the United States\", we pointed out that the United States has entered the stage of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of the S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventories has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit reduction (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking stage is 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: The total non-financial inventory scale of the S&P 500 continued to rise in the third quarter, while the inventory of raw materials and finished products fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit reduction in the active destocking stage (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) is around 7%, and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 epidemic is even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may be difficult to hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of the S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after deducting energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technology hardware, semiconductors, etc. being more obvious. From the perspective of macro indicators, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. 5.3% vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment increased significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Biden administration's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act respectively in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Mid-term Elections\"). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on U.S. growth, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may also be further suppressed (several local Fed surveys show that corporate asset expenditures in the next six months are expected to fall again since August this year, \"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures on retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded pre-epidemic levels, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The growth rate of equipment investment in the third quarter, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Corporate asset expenditure expectations for the next six months surveyed by multiple local Fed surveys have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring comprehensive demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure and leverage, we found<b>Semiconductor</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media Entertainment</b>(weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and leverage) greater pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventory) and<b>Transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is low) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of semiconductor, media entertainment, consumer services and other inventories is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditures such as energy, transportation, and semiconductors in the third quarter is still relatively high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and clothing, and retail in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The leverage ratios of consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, semiconductors, etc. are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We found that semiconductors, media entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation are also worth watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock profits may continue to decline under the pressure of recession, and are expected to be-5% in 2023; If the market wants to rise, it may need to be suppressed first, and it will bear molecular pressure in the second quarter</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing costs across the board in the United States have exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, gradually moving towards recession may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recessionary pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of review's 18 rounds of recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review's Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on return on investment will not be obvious.<b>It will not cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range of 3m10s is 150bp). Against this background, U.S. stock profits are likely to continue to fall, but the adjustment will not be very large. Currently, we expect that the profit growth rate in 2023 may drop to-5.5%, which still has room for downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment grade bond real yield-real GDP year-on-year growth rate The spread exceeded the threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread began to invert in early November and is currently inverted by ~ 75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current U.S. high-yield bond yield is 8.4%, and the spread with the U.S. stock ROIC is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8% respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current market consensus expects the S&P 500 Index to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still not cheap valuation combined with the increased recessionary pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make U.S. stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 x, higher than the historical average of 16.2 x since 1990. The current tightening decline and the elimination of upside risks in the US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, under the increasing pressure of recession in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to get compensation from the denominator immediately. After market fluctuations may force out easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of Federal Reserve Policy and Three Stages of Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to a 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~ 3.8% corresponding to the low point at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of the S&P 500 is ~ 15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~ 3.8% 10-year US Treasury yields correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 ~ 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. 15%. However, we expect the end of the year to be ~ 5% higher than the current point (\"Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise, you may need to suppress it first\".)</p><p><b>Chart: The 12-month dynamic valuation of the S&P 500 index is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen back to a relatively low of 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 index profit adjustment sentiment continues to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10 ~ 15% lower than the current level. But we expect the year-end point to be ~ 5% higher than the current point</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195902581","content_text":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。图表：可比口径下，三季度标普500指数EPS同比增长0.6%，较二季度2.9%继续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数EPS同比-1%，较上季度抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数盈利超预期幅度较上季度继续回落（三季度1.9% vs. 二季度2.9%），但超预期公司数占比仍达70%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息科技、工业、必需消费、医疗保健仍有超过75%公司超预期；超预期幅度上，能源、医疗保健、必需消费最高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。图表：三季度能源、消费者服务、交通运输盈利同比依然大幅领先，保险、媒体与娱乐等落后资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，零售、房地产、银行盈利增速抬升，但原材料、保险、生物制药等回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500 0.6%的EPS同比增速中，能源及可选消费贡献4.1和1.2ppt，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累2.5、1.3、1.2ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数-1%的EPS同比增速中，医疗保健、信息科技、通讯服务拖累明显，分别达-1.2、-1.1和-0.9ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀“三重压力”，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。图表：美股科技龙头三季度业绩情况一览资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（海外收入占比为截至2021年末各公司除美国外海外收入占比）图表：美股科技龙头（FAAMNG）市值占比已从2020年9月24.2%的高位回落至18.6%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG标普500指数表现与美国金融条件有明显负相关性资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG收入占标普500非金融比例从2021年9月10.7%高位回落至三季度10.4%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例从2020年末27%的高位回落至三季度的17.7%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG收入同比10.2%，低于2006年以来20%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG净利润同比-12.6%，低于2006年以来23%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。图表：三季度标普500指数非金融收入同比回落至9.6%，与名义GDP增速回落趋势基本一致资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，三季度能源、交通运输、原材料收入增速回落明显，资本品、公用事业抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数非金融板块净利润率回落至11%，非金融非能源净利润率回落至10.3%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业净利润率抬升明显，但软件与服务、媒体娱乐、原材料显著回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。图表：三季度库存依然偏高的半导体板块销售收入已经下滑，且毛利率继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度库存依然不足的汽车与零部件板块销售收入继续抬升，毛利率维持稳定资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：图表：三季度标普500非金融板块ROE回落至24.3%；净利润率回落、资产周转率及杠杆率基本不变资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：扣除能源后，三季度ROE回落至22.7%；净利润率回落，资产周转率及杠杆率略有抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 经营性现金流趋弱，信用债发行趋缓，在手现金减少。过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。图表：三季度非金融板块经营性现金流同比（TTM）继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、公用事业、交通运输板块经营性现金流同比领先，但可选消费、资本品同比落后资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：根据SIFMA统计，三季度企业信用债发行规模2961亿美元，同比回落32.9%，环比回落3.9%资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融在手现金较上季度回落至1.59万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费仍占比较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、信息科技在手现金占总资产比例最高，但仅能源、原材料、医疗保健较上季度抬升明显资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 回购规模继续回落。标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。图表：已披露的回购金额较上季度继续回落，约1960亿美元，占市值比例降至2.8%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息技术占30%、可选消费占16.4%、金融占12.8%，公用事业及房地产占比最低资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度的3.3%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献约2.4%，较二季度的2.2%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 杠杆持平，但偿付能力下降。三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。图表：三季度标普500非金融个股净杠杆率中位数维持在二季度的60%；整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融个股利率备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9，整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。我们在《美国主动去库存的资产含义》中指出美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。图表：三季度标普500非金融总库存规模继续抬升，原材料和产成品库存回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：总库存同比增速见顶回落（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%），原材料、半成品及产成品亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回顾历史经验，主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（标普500指数12个月动态EPS）平均在7%左右，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大资料来源：FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关（《美国中期选举的政策与市场含义》）。不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制（多个地方联储调查未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落，《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》）。图表：资本开支同比较二季度抬升（三季度21% vs. 二季度16.6%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：非金融非能源资本开支同比抬升（三季度16.4% vs. 二季度14.7%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度零售、半导体、电信服务资本开支规模超过疫情前水平，但能源、资本品、消费者服务等仍有差距资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度设备投资，尤其是信息处理设备以及运输设备增速较二季度抬升明显资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表：多个地方联储调查的未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。图表：三季度电信服务、生物科技与制药、媒体与娱乐销售收入同比增速显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：相比2006年以来均值，半导体、媒体娱乐、消费者服务等库存同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度能源、交通运输、半导体等资本开支同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度软件与服务、耐用消费品与服装、零售等固定资产周转率显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、科技硬件、运输、半导体等杠杆率较2006年均值更高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：我们发现半导体、媒体娱乐、电信服务压力更大；零售和交通运输也值得关注资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成（《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》），因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。图表：投资级债券实际收益率   – 实际GDP同比增速利差10月突破阈值，11月末达342bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：3m10s利差于11月初开始倒挂，当前已倒挂~75bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前美国高收益债收益率8.4%，与美股ROIC利差约265bp资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：当前30年期及15年期抵押贷款利率分别达6.5%和5.8%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前市场一致预期标普500指数2023年盈利增速5.7%，2024年9.5%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机（《推演美联储政策与资产轮动的三个阶段》）。假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%（《海外市场2023年展望：欲扬或需先抑》。）图表：标普500指数12个月动态估值17.7倍，高于1990年以来均值资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数隐含股权风险溢价已回落至2.2%的相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数盈利调情绪自今年6月中旬转负后持续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：明年二季度市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前标普500指数隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964327074,"gmtCreate":1670083783698,"gmtModify":1676538300126,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964327074","repostId":"2288911500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288911500","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670038838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288911500?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 11:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288911500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling said: \"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the lawsuit cannot be refiled.\" Reuters said that the United States officially ended the case that caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not file a new lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said that the United States officially ended this case that caused tension between China and the United States.</p><p>According to the Canadian News Agency, Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling: \"The above-mentioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be withdrawn, and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.\"</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and had not violated it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the US Department of Justice. According to the agreement, the United States agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after the date she was arrested in Canada because of a US arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, new york<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Lin District Attorney Carolyn Pokorny sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA), \"I would like to ask (the court) to withdraw the defendant Meng Wanzhou's third alternative prosecution in this case.\"</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou was transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada, she was detained by the Canadian government for no reason on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, which started a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, Meng Wanzhou left Canada by chartered flight on September 25, 2021 and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. Facts have already fully proved that this is a political persecution against Chinese citizens, with the purpose of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What the United States and Canada have done is typical arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport: U.S. court officially drops Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling said: \"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the lawsuit cannot be refiled.\" Reuters said that the United States officially ended the case that caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not file a new lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said that the United States officially ended this case that caused tension between China and the United States.</p><p>According to the Canadian News Agency, Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling: \"The above-mentioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be withdrawn, and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.\"</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and had not violated it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be re-filed.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the US Department of Justice. According to the agreement, the United States agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after the date she was arrested in Canada because of a US arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, new york<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Lin District Attorney Carolyn Pokorny sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA), \"I would like to ask (the court) to withdraw the defendant Meng Wanzhou's third alternative prosecution in this case.\"</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou was transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada, she was detained by the Canadian government for no reason on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, which started a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, Meng Wanzhou left Canada by chartered flight on September 25, 2021 and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. Facts have already fully proved that this is a political persecution against Chinese citizens, with the purpose of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What the United States and Canada have done is typical arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0b6d1912791f75d7ff43e981e7e05","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288911500","content_text":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。据路透社报道，在美国检方提出请求后，美国法院当地时间2日正式撤销对华为公司首席财务官孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控，且不能重新提起诉讼。据报道，美国地区法官安·唐纳利当地时间2日撤销了对孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控。路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。另据加拿大通讯社报道，安·唐纳利在一份书面裁决中表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”据法新社报道，美国司法部2日也表示，孟晚舟已完成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)且在协议期限内未有违反行为，因此指控已完全撤销，且不能重新提起诉讼。2021年9月，孟晚舟与美国司法部达成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)。根据该协议，美方同意在2022年12月1日，也就是孟晚舟因为美国的逮捕令而在加拿大被捕之日的4年后，撤销对她的指控。当地时间12月1日，纽约布鲁克林地区联邦检察官卡洛琳·波科尔尼致信安·唐纳利，称由于没有孟晚舟违反“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)的信息，“谨提请(法院)撤销本案中对被告孟晚舟的第三次替代起诉”。据此前报道，2018年12月1日，孟晚舟途经加拿大温哥华机场转机时，被加拿大政府以“应美方要求”为由无端拘押，美国指控她在华为的伊朗业务问题上误导汇丰银行，由此开启了中国与美加两国漫长的司法与外交博弈，孟晚舟也被加拿大非法拘押长达1028天。经各方不懈努力，2021年9月25日，孟晚舟乘坐包机离开加拿大，顺利回到祖国。中国外交部发言人华春莹2021年9月曾强调：中方在孟晚舟事件上立场是一贯的、明确的。事实早已充分证明，这是一起针对中国公民的政治迫害事件，目的是打压中国的高技术企业。对孟晚舟女士所谓“欺诈”的指控纯属捏造。美国、加拿大所作所为是典型的任意拘押。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964324236,"gmtCreate":1670083732325,"gmtModify":1676538300117,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964324236","repostId":"2288916102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288916102","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1670046777,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288916102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 13:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288916102","media":"券商中国","summary":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\" continue.</p><p>Recently, the helicopter carrying Vyacheslav Taran, a Russian currency magnate and billionaire, crashed on the border between France and Italy, and Taran died unfortunately. Before Taran, two bigwigs in the currency circle had died mysteriously. Kurland, the co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30; Musegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to US $16,000, and the latest price (US $17,100) fell by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, the \"godfather of emerging markets\" Mark Mobius warned that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023, or fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A super storm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into effect, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire died in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, the helicopter of 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland, and Taran died unfortunately.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilots were experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last moment before takeoff. At present, the specific information of this passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and another Russian super-rich man who died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. In the past few years, he has been living in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded the Forex foreign exchange trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997. In 2018, the platform was acquired by Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>After the license was removed, it continued to operate in more than 100 other countries. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran once made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and assuring them that they could earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, causing a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. The Russian central bank reportedly revoked the Forex Club's license in 2018 because Taran's subsidiary led customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Taran, two currency bosses had passed away unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that the company's co-founder Tiantian Kullander died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to local police confirmation, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29 at the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA. MakerDAO was launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The collapsing currency circle</p><p>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the crisis in the \"currency circle\" continues to ferment. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, once falling to around US $16,000, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was US $17,113, a cumulative drop of as much as 75% compared with the historical high of US $69,000 in November 2021. The total market value of global cryptocurrencies has shrunk from US $3 trillion in November last year to approximately US $900 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the \"belief in the currency circle\", Bitcoin also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly severely damaged the confidence of the cryptocurrency market. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even issued a warning that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023.</p><p>On December 1, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin will plummet by 40% in 2023 and will fall below 10,000 dollars.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius established Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\", and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below this year. $20,000.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that although he expects the Bitcoin to fluctuate around $17,000 in the short term, interest rates will continue to rise with further rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and he predicts that by 2023, the Bitcoin may fall below $10,000.</p><p>The reason given is that the Federal Reserve's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy sharply and rate hike, which makes the number of dollars circulating in the market decreasing, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency transactions.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many crypto companies are headed for bankruptcy as crypto prices plummet and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi also recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A super storm is brewing in global energy markets.</p><p>From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere.</p><p><b>According to shipbrokers, ongoing price negotiations show that tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach US $15 million, or US $20 per barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. The previous freight rate was US $9 million, with a potential increase of 66.7%.</b></p><p>The surge in transportation costs reflects the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers before the deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of current market attention is the price ceiling set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is lower than the upper limit, it will not be affected by EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from multiple media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at US $60/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also be implemented together when the latest EU sanctions on Rosneft take effect on December 5.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Prior to this, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the British \"Financial Times\" report, in the first 10 months of 2022, Russia's LNG supply to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 42%; The cost is as high as 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>The \"dark fleet\" refers to oil tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue transporting Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. The \"dark fleet\" is mostly composed of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three currency bosses have died mysteriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 13:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\" continue.</p><p>Recently, the helicopter carrying Vyacheslav Taran, a Russian currency magnate and billionaire, crashed on the border between France and Italy, and Taran died unfortunately. Before Taran, two bigwigs in the currency circle had died mysteriously. Kurland, the co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30; Musegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to US $16,000, and the latest price (US $17,100) fell by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, the \"godfather of emerging markets\" Mark Mobius warned that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023, or fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A super storm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into effect, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire died in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, the helicopter of 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland, and Taran died unfortunately.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilots were experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last moment before takeoff. At present, the specific information of this passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and another Russian super-rich man who died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. In the past few years, he has been living in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded the Forex foreign exchange trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997. In 2018, the platform was acquired by Russia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>After the license was removed, it continued to operate in more than 100 other countries. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran once made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and assuring them that they could earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, causing a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. The Russian central bank reportedly revoked the Forex Club's license in 2018 because Taran's subsidiary led customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Taran, two currency bosses had passed away unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that the company's co-founder Tiantian Kullander died in his sleep on November 23, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to local police confirmation, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowned on October 28, local time, at the age of 29 at the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA. MakerDAO was launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The collapsing currency circle</p><p>At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the crisis in the \"currency circle\" continues to ferment. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, the virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, Bitcoin prices fell sharply, once falling to around US $16,000, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was US $17,113, a cumulative drop of as much as 75% compared with the historical high of US $69,000 in November 2021. The total market value of global cryptocurrencies has shrunk from US $3 trillion in November last year to approximately US $900 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the \"belief in the currency circle\", Bitcoin also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly severely damaged the confidence of the cryptocurrency market. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even issued a warning that Bitcoin will continue to plummet in 2023.</p><p>On December 1, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin will plummet by 40% in 2023 and will fall below 10,000 dollars.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius established Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\", and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below this year. $20,000.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that although he expects the Bitcoin to fluctuate around $17,000 in the short term, interest rates will continue to rise with further rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and he predicts that by 2023, the Bitcoin may fall below $10,000.</p><p>The reason given is that the Federal Reserve's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy sharply and rate hike, which makes the number of dollars circulating in the market decreasing, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency transactions.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many crypto companies are headed for bankruptcy as crypto prices plummet and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi also recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A super storm is brewing in global energy markets.</p><p>From December 5, the ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the United States will officially take effect, and traders have already felt the tense atmosphere.</p><p><b>According to shipbrokers, ongoing price negotiations show that tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach US $15 million, or US $20 per barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. The previous freight rate was US $9 million, with a potential increase of 66.7%.</b></p><p>The surge in transportation costs reflects the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers before the deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of current market attention is the price ceiling set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is lower than the upper limit, it will not be affected by EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from multiple media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at US $60/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also be implemented together when the latest EU sanctions on Rosneft take effect on December 5.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing price caps on Russian oil.</p><p>Prior to this, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the British \"Financial Times\" report, in the first 10 months of 2022, Russia's LNG supply to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 42%; The cost is as high as 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>The \"dark fleet\" refers to oil tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue transporting Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. The \"dark fleet\" is mostly composed of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288916102","content_text":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。近日，俄罗斯币圈大佬、亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。而在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬离奇去世，分别是全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group联合创始人库兰德于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁；美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安于当地时间10月28日溺水身亡，年仅29岁。与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格一度跌至1.6万美元，最新价格（1.71万美元）相较于历史高位累计跌幅达75%。12月1日，“新兴市场教父”Mark Mobius警告称，2023年比特币将继续暴跌，或将跌破1万美元。全球能源市场的一场超级风暴也正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。俄罗斯亿万富翁，坠机身亡据英国《每日邮报》等多家外媒报道，近日，53岁的俄罗斯亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机从瑞士起飞后在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。据了解，俄罗斯驻法国大使馆已经证实了塔兰的死讯。同时，Libertex集团也发布声明称，创始人塔兰在前往摩纳哥的途中，因搭乘的直升机坠毁而身亡。值得一提的是，飞机失事时，当地天气良好、飞行员经验丰富、当局亦未指出直升机存在操作不当的问题。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。报道称，塔兰是最新一位意外去世的加密货币领域企业家，也是今年以来又一位神秘离世的俄罗斯超级富豪。据公开资料显示，塔兰出生于俄罗斯，过去几年，其一直居住在摩纳哥，且在当地金融行业享有盛誉。他于1997年在俄罗斯创立了福瑞斯外汇交易平台“Forex Club”，2018年该平台被俄罗斯中央银行取消许可证后，继续在其他100多个国家开展业务。Libertex交易平台隶属于Forex Club Group，该平台提供广泛的金融产品，包括加密货币交易。有报道称，塔兰曾通过让俄罗斯公民参与货币投机活动，并向其保证能以最低投入赚取最大回报，大赚了数百万美元，令大量俄罗斯投资者血本无归。因此，有分析认为，这可能导致有很多俄罗斯人对其不满。据报道，因塔兰旗下子公司将客户引至离岸公司，俄罗斯央行已于2018年撤销了Forex Club的执照。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。近日，全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group发布公告称，公司联合创始人库兰德（Tiantian Kullander）于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁。另外，据当地警方确认，美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安（Nikolai Mushegian）于当地时间10月28日在美国波多黎各Condado海滩边被发现溺水身亡，年仅29岁。MakerDAO于2017年在以太坊(Ethereum)区块链上推出，并在以太坊发行了首个去中心化稳定币DAI。崩盘的币圈与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。当前，“币圈”危机仍在继续发酵。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格应声大跌，一度跌至1.6万美元左右，随后稍有回升，最新价格为17113美元，相较于2021年11月的历史高位6.9万美元，累计跌幅高达75%。全球加密货币总市值由去年11月的3万亿美元缩水至大约9000亿美元。作为“币圈信仰”的比特币也遭遇崩盘，这无疑重创加密货币市场信心，“新兴市场教父”甚至发出警告，2023年比特币将继续暴跌。12月1日，Mobius Capital Partners的联合创始人Mark Mobius在接受媒体采访时称，比特币的价格一度跌破17000美元的技术支撑位，他预测2023年比特币还将暴跌40%，将跌破1万美元。公开资料显示，Mark Mobius于2018年成立了Mobius Capital Partners，在此之前，他曾担任邓普顿新兴市场集团的执行主席，被誉为“新兴市场教父”，并在今年成功预测比特币将跌破2万美元。Mobius在媒体采访中表示，虽然他预计比特币短期内将在17000美元附近上下波动，但随着美联储的进一步加息，利率将不断上涨，他预测到2023年，比特币可能会跌破1万美元。其给出的理由是，美联储的持续紧缩的货币政策和不断上涨的利率，随着利率上升，购买比特币或其他加密货币的吸引力会降低，因为持有这些加密货币并不会产生利息。另外，美联储持续大幅加息收紧货币政策，使得市场流通的美元正在减少，投资者变得更难参与加密货币的交易。Mobius警告称，随着加密货币价格暴跌和流动性枯竭，许多加密货币公司将走向破产。其中，Celsius是为加密货币投资者提供高利率的借贷平台，其于今年7月份申请了破产保护。另外，BlockFi因持有FTX很大的风险敞口，也于最近申请了破产。一场超级风暴全球能源市场的一场超级风暴正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。据船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，即20美元/桶。而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。运输成本飙升反映出，俄罗斯原油供应商在最后截止日前所面临的严峻挑战，届时来自希腊等欧洲国家的顶级油轮所有者，将停止为俄罗斯生产的原油提供航运和其他服务。目前市场关注的另一个焦点是，G7和欧盟对俄油制定的价格上限。据制裁政策显示，只要俄油的交易价格低于上限，就可以不受欧盟制裁影响。据多家媒体的最新报道，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会已经向27个成员国提议，将俄油限价定在60美元/桶。如果欧盟和G7成员国能够达成一致，这项价格限制措施，也将在12月5日欧盟俄油最新制裁生效时一同落地。但值得一提的是，俄罗斯方面对此态度非常强硬，其早已宣布，不会向参与对俄油实施价格上限的国家出售任何石油和天然气。而在此之前，欧盟正在疯狂进口俄罗斯的液化天然气，据英国《金融时报》报道，2022年前10个月，俄罗斯对欧洲国家的液化天然气供应量达到创纪录的178亿立方米，同比增长42%；耗资高达125亿欧元(约合人民币925亿元)，是去年同期的五倍，亦创出历史最高纪录。随着禁运生效时点临近，部分俄罗斯原油的买卖双方，将目光投向了“黑暗船队”。“黑暗船队”是指，由未透露身份的船东持有的油轮，尽管面临制裁威胁，船东仍愿意继续运输俄油。而“黑暗船队”大多由较老的船只组成，其中许多有着与伊朗等受西方制裁国家打交道的记录。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"835174":1,"835184":1,"835185":1,"835305":1,"835368":1,"835508":1,"835640":1,"835670":1,"870436":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965216858,"gmtCreate":1669957690275,"gmtModify":1676538278430,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965216858","repostId":"1125738659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125738659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1669950272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125738659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillions of apples, \"high in debt\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillions of apples, \"high in debt\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife skills\" are also largely reflected in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>In the balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy at the same time. As a result, while steadily pushing up the market value, it also needs to face an increasingly higher debt ratio. Therefore, while applying a more precise \"knife technique\" to the iPhone, looking for the \"iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands. Apple can be said to be in constant trouble recently.</p><p>On November 29, after bombarding Apple, Musk sent out a poll on his personal social media about \"Apple should announce all censorship measures that affect other customers.\" 85% of the nearly 2.23 million votes chose \"Yes\".</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's up to 30% commission on the App Store, and said that Apple had threatened to remove the social media app it just acquired from the App Store.</p><p>The short-lived farce ended with Cook taking Musk to visit Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But soon Facebook founder Zuckerberg and streaming music service Spotify CEO Daniel Eck took over the baton of Musk's bombardment of Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprives consumers of choice and unreasonably obtains most of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>But this is obviously not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Back to the present, Apple's more real and close \"anxiety\" comes from the underappreciated iPhone 14 series, while the more far-reaching \"anxiety\" is hidden in the secret. Between financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market value of more than 2 trillion US dollars, total assets of 352.8 billion US dollars, annual revenue of 394.3 billion US dollars, and net profit of 99.8 billion US dollars, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from the general perception of the public, and behind this is actually a problem related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategy.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's asset-liability ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, the average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization in fiscal year 2021 is 52.92%, of which Apple ranks second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to Pepsi's 82.52%; the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average asset-liability ratio of the top ten listed companies by market value is 55.71%, of which the debt ratio reaches 92.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Regardless of vertical or horizontal comparison, Apple's debt ratio is not low, and this indicator alone is even more radical than many domestic real estate enterprises with high leverage.</p><p>Behind the extremely high debt ratio, Apple's interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022 is US $120.069 billion, of which long-term term debt is US $98.959 billion and short-term term debt is US $11.128 billion.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite bulging-at the same time, its book cash, equivalents, and securities totaled US $169.109 billion, of which cash was US $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term securities were US $120.805 billion and US $24.658 billion respectively.</p><p>Specifically, the securities held by Apple include US $23.409 billion in US Treasury Bond, US $15.749 billion in non-US government bonds, and US $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises, why is Apple globally<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The shipment volume of mobile phones is the second largest, and you have a lot of cash and bonds in your account, but you still have to borrow so much money?</p><p>In fact, Apple has been trapped in the problem of \"tax avoidance\", because the U.S. tax law stipulates that if Apple's overseas income is to be repatriated to the United States, it needs to pay a 35% tax to the U.S. government (before the tax reform), but Apple has always resisted this, thinking that the excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>The outside world's doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have existed for a long time. Apple CEO Cook once \"fought with the senator\" at the hearing, fighting back at what he thought was unreasonable in the US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas income still cannot be returned to the United States smoothly, but is collected in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rate is achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to the U.S. account, but after Cook took over, Apple needs to spend huge sums of money to repurchase the company's stock every year in order to manage its market value. At the same time, it has also changed from no dividends in the Jobs era to a high proportion of dividends, all of which require large sums of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, from 2013 to 2022, Apple spent a total of US $553.1 billion on stock repurchases, and the total Dividend expenditure shown in the cash flow statement since 2011 has reached US $131.9 billion.</p><p>This has led Apple to keep a large amount of cash and securities on its books, while constantly borrowing money for repurchases and dividends. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly from 2013 to 2017, eventually forming the current situation of \"big deposits and big loans\".</p><p>But this is not the root cause of Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically, the asset-liability ratio = total liabilities/total assets, and the asset-liability ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the increase of total assets, so when will this happen? Simply put, it is when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when the debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple makes more money every year than it spends, the net assets will increase and the overall debt ratio will be controlled or even decreased.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and repurchase expenditures with the sum of annual net operating activities and investment activities, it will be found that in most years, Apple's expenditures on dividends and repurchases are greater than the net cash generated from operating activities and investment activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With the continuous accumulation of this state, the growth rate of Apple's assets is far slower than the growth rate of its liabilities, and the debt ratio finally climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Cook officially took over the position of CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets have increased by US $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities have increased by US $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully tapping the commercial value brought by the iPhone to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife skill\" is also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet-Apple, which is busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive repurchase and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily pushing up its market value, it also needs to face higher and higher debt ratios.</p><p>The more urgent problem is that if you want to return to the security limit of \"earning more than spending\", Apple's current killer is still the iPhone, so while applying more precise \"knife skills\" to the iPhone, it is looking for \"The iPhone of the next era\" has become a problem that Cook needs to grasp with both hands.</p><p><b>The last wave of dividends for the iPhone?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>According to the data released by market research organization Strategy Analytics, although the total sales of smartphones fell by 35% year-on-year during Double Eleven, the iPhone won the crown with sales of 3.5 million units. The latest data shows that in October 2022, Apple's monthly domestic market share reached a record high of 25%, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not optimistic, and there were even a lot of complaints.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included \"iPhone 14 makes Huaqiangbei miserable\", \"iPhone 14\" harvests \"scalpers\", \"Squeezing toothpaste makes iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy title almost overwhelmingly reveals the sentiment of bad-mouthing Apple's new machine, which is considered to have obvious pain points from configuration to design.</p><p>Luo Yonghao, an \"old fruit powder\", also quipped after starting a new machine: \"Apple used to be a real machine that looked better than the rendering, but in recent years, my 'American subsidiary'didn't work very well. This time is a good example. The so-called design of Dynamic Island is not as beautiful as in the promotional video. The Android camp has all come up with small and medium black spot front shots, lifting front shots, and visually perfect hidden front shots under the screen. Why do you want to do this?\"</p><p>But whether it is Dynamic Island, who is not optimistic, or Cook's \"knife skills\", although the standard version of the iPhone 14 has been broken, Cook has indeed succeeded in attracting more demand to Pro models with higher configurations and prices--In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro ranked first and second among the best-selling models in China respectively, but the standard versions of the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series have been selling higher before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Vision china</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is also gradually expanding its revenue territory in the ecosystem in addition to hardware products such as iPhone and Mac-its revenue from iTunes, software and services has increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022. billion yuan, accounting for a proportion of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Referring to the gross profit margin of more than 70% of Xiaomi's Internet service business, this part of Apple's business theoretically also has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are Apple's \"open source\" ways.</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it is the aversion of technology giants such as Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax, or the exhaustion of the halo of the first-generation iPhone under Cook's commercial knife technique, it is actually the price that Apple needs to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a mobile phone advertisement released recently, Apple once again became the object of ridicule-a man was sitting on a wall with a shop that looked like an Apple retail store behind him. When the employee in the store asked him what he was doing, the man insinuated, \"On Samsung's side, there are foldable mobile phones and epic cameras.\" The clerk responded with \"We wait\", secretly mocking Apple for its delay in launching folding screen mobile phones.</p><p>This is not the first time that the two sides have \"confronted each other\" in advertisements. In past advertisements, Samsung has also flirted with Apple's abrupt notch screen, buried Apple's defects such as lag, frequent bugs, and non-waterproofing. It has also used plot comparisons to highlight the old generation of Apple that cannot charge and use headphones at the same time. Basically, Apple's historical defects have been criticized.</p><p>Fortunately, if you look back, most of these bugs have become history, and the innuendo in Samsung's advertisements has become a dramatic force to urge Apple to improve to some extent.</p><p>In the next few years, how to use more accurate \"knife skills\" and relatively limited micro-innovations to make the iPhone and its ecology eat the last wave of dividends in the shrinking industry of smartphones may be Cook's current consideration. One of the important issues, but at the same time, finding the \"iPhone of the next era\" outside the iPhone is also the top priority for the continuation of Apple's business empire.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations by the outside world mainly include Apple smart cars and Apple AR/VR glasses. The former has experienced 8 years of \"dystocia\" and is still far from landing, while the latter has ushered in more and more intensive reports in the near future, which is ready to come out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: vision china)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is far-reaching than most people think-it launched the AR development platform ARKit at WWDC in 2017. Developers can use this set of tools to create augmented reality applications for iPhone and iPad, and Apple Once AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new carriers.</p><p>For example, LiDAR LiDAR used in iPad and iPhone Pro has depth-of-field perception capabilities, so in addition to improving camera focusing capabilities for existing products, it is more like laying a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone currently has the function of camera recognition and search for text. If it is applied to future AR/VR devices, the space that can be displayed will be greatly released.</p><p>After WWDC in 2022, Cook once stated in an interview that the AR field is the focus of Apple's daily attention. There are already more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to pay attention, you will see what we bring. product\".</p><p>Judging from the existing news, Apple's AR team has a high probability of holding two sets of solutions, one is a helmet aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000; The other is highly likely to be AR glasses that look closer to ordinary glasses, corresponding to a virtual experience with enhanced reality, but the launch time should be after the VR helmet product.</p><p>Against the background that the smartphone market is no longer growing, whether Apple's brewing AR/VR glasses can catch the baton that the iPhone is about to hand over may be Apple's anxiety in the next few years.</p><p>The question worth thinking about is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room is left for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4574":"无人驾驶","AAPL":"苹果","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962422039,"gmtCreate":1669825906721,"gmtModify":1676538252042,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962422039","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960343825,"gmtCreate":1668082789268,"gmtModify":1676538009681,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960343825","repostId":"1117158204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117158204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668079921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117158204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 19:32","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117158204","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecaf7b843618667282559909e22a1fb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","BK0214":"IT设备","BK1607":"新IT概念","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117158204","content_text":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.21亿美元；每股收益0.06美元，市场预期0.06美元，去年同期0.04美元。第三季毛利为7.42亿美元，相比2022年第二季为7.5亿美元，相较于2021年第三季的4.68亿美元增长58.6%。第三季的销售成本为11.65亿美元，相较于2022年第二季为11.53亿美元。预计第四季度，受手机、消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美元左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。全年资本支出计画从50亿美元上调为66亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987314726,"gmtCreate":1667822437965,"gmtModify":1676537969210,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987314726","repostId":"2281443627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281443627","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667793078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281443627?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! In the midterm election season, U.S. stocks will rise 6%?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281443627","media":"智通财经","summary":"70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. mid-term elections, which have been a big plus for U.S. stocks for more than 70 years. However, the current rising interest rates, increasing recession risks and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. Historically, though, the fourth quarter and the year after the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest Democrats could lose control of both U.S. House and Senate, and stocks could get a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government would stifle virtually any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: \"It's a good thing that the U.S. government is divided. The government can't do anything, and there will be no uncertainty in the next two years. When companies understand the competitive environment, they can operate. If Republicans control Congress during the Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses.\"</p><p>A period of rally in stocks, driven by the U.S. midterm elections, will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening policy in decades has sent the S&P 500 down 21%, hitting investors hard.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Losing control of even either chamber of the U.S. Congress would weaken Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy when the economy slows, which would eliminate a potential case for further rate hike by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to curb inflation. The U.S. CPI data for October is due on Thursday, when investors will get another key data on price increases, which will also help spy on the pace of the Fed's rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that options pricing shows that the S&P 500 will rise by up to 0.7% if Republicans win; If Democrats continue to control Congress, the S&P 500 will fall 3.3%. But to be sure, the outcome of the election may not be immediately clear, especially if candidates refuse to acknowledge the results or incite challenges to the results. The risk of violence or protests following the vote can upset the mood of the population.</p><p>Over a longer period, the U.S. stock market is in the most bullish period of the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is comforting to stock market bulls. Historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two quarters thereafter have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 averaging 6.6%, 7.4% and 4.8% since 1950, respectively, according to Carson Investment Research.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the outlook for this year is complicated by a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Last week, Powell shattered expectations for the Fed to adjust its policy, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"some way to go\" and that its key policy rate may peak higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: \"Medium-term seasonality won't persist this time because markets are still unaware of the fact that interest rates need to remain elevated for longer. Some investors are confusing the Fed's suspended rate hike with the Fed's policy pivot. A pivot would mean the Fed is completely changing direction. But not at this time. The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Fed is likely to pause rate hike in 2023 because they need to see the impact of what they have already taken on the economy. But suspending the rate hike does not mean that after the suspension, they will definitely lower interest rates. They may pause rate hike and then rate hike again, especially with inflation stubbornly high. \"</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a strong period of US stocks. The third year of the U.S. presidential election cycle (next year) was the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 14%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of the election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 has hardly seen any post-midterm declines in the past. On average, the index has moved higher in the month, three months, half a year and the entire year after the midterm elections, according to an analysis of data dating back to 1950 by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 rose 15% on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The logic, in Delwiche's view, is this: the politicians in power want *, so they start making more lenient policies ahead of the general election. But this time, what happens next is almost uncertain, and dissatisfaction with inflation could change the typical political playbook. Delwiche said: \"The difference in this cycle is that so far we haven't seen more stimulus policies, but the opposite. This cycle is not an expectation of what is coming, but a reaction to what has already happened. If the Republican Party wins in the midterm elections, the policy may be more conducive to the market, which may support the S&P index.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! In the midterm election season, U.S. stocks will rise 6%?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! In the midterm election season, U.S. stocks will rise 6%?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-07 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. mid-term elections, which have been a big plus for U.S. stocks for more than 70 years. However, the current rising interest rates, increasing recession risks and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. Historically, though, the fourth quarter and the year after the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest Democrats could lose control of both U.S. House and Senate, and stocks could get a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government would stifle virtually any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: \"It's a good thing that the U.S. government is divided. The government can't do anything, and there will be no uncertainty in the next two years. When companies understand the competitive environment, they can operate. If Republicans control Congress during the Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses.\"</p><p>A period of rally in stocks, driven by the U.S. midterm elections, will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening policy in decades has sent the S&P 500 down 21%, hitting investors hard.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Losing control of even either chamber of the U.S. Congress would weaken Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy when the economy slows, which would eliminate a potential case for further rate hike by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to curb inflation. The U.S. CPI data for October is due on Thursday, when investors will get another key data on price increases, which will also help spy on the pace of the Fed's rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that options pricing shows that the S&P 500 will rise by up to 0.7% if Republicans win; If Democrats continue to control Congress, the S&P 500 will fall 3.3%. But to be sure, the outcome of the election may not be immediately clear, especially if candidates refuse to acknowledge the results or incite challenges to the results. The risk of violence or protests following the vote can upset the mood of the population.</p><p>Over a longer period, the U.S. stock market is in the most bullish period of the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is comforting to stock market bulls. Historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two quarters thereafter have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 averaging 6.6%, 7.4% and 4.8% since 1950, respectively, according to Carson Investment Research.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, the outlook for this year is complicated by a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Last week, Powell shattered expectations for the Fed to adjust its policy, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"some way to go\" and that its key policy rate may peak higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: \"Medium-term seasonality won't persist this time because markets are still unaware of the fact that interest rates need to remain elevated for longer. Some investors are confusing the Fed's suspended rate hike with the Fed's policy pivot. A pivot would mean the Fed is completely changing direction. But not at this time. The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Fed is likely to pause rate hike in 2023 because they need to see the impact of what they have already taken on the economy. But suspending the rate hike does not mean that after the suspension, they will definitely lower interest rates. They may pause rate hike and then rate hike again, especially with inflation stubbornly high. \"</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a strong period of US stocks. The third year of the U.S. presidential election cycle (next year) was the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 14%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of the election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 has hardly seen any post-midterm declines in the past. On average, the index has moved higher in the month, three months, half a year and the entire year after the midterm elections, according to an analysis of data dating back to 1950 by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 rose 15% on average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The logic, in Delwiche's view, is this: the politicians in power want *, so they start making more lenient policies ahead of the general election. But this time, what happens next is almost uncertain, and dissatisfaction with inflation could change the typical political playbook. Delwiche said: \"The difference in this cycle is that so far we haven't seen more stimulus policies, but the opposite. This cycle is not an expectation of what is coming, but a reaction to what has already happened. If the Republican Party wins in the midterm elections, the policy may be more conducive to the market, which may support the S&P index.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281443627","content_text":"美国股市的近期命运取决于美国中期选举，而70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。然而目前不断上升的利率、不断加剧的衰退风险以及40年来最严重的通货膨胀，可能会导致目前形势与过去历史趋势的偏离。不过，从历史上看，第四季度和中期选举后的一年一直是四年总统周期中股市表现最强劲的时期。民调显示，民主党可能会失去对美国参众两院的控制权，股市可能会从另一个传统上有利的因素得到进一步提振：一个分裂的美国政府几乎会扼杀任何可能改变经济前景的重大立法。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：“美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。”在美国中期选举的推动下，股市出现一段时间的上涨将受到投资者的欢迎。今年，美联储数十年来最激进的货币紧缩政策已导致标普500指数下跌21%，令投资者遭受重创。即使失去对美国国会任何一个议院的控制，也会削弱民主党在经济放缓时制定财政措施刺激经济的能力，这将消除美联储主席鲍威尔进一步加息以抑制通胀的一个潜在理由。美国10月份CPI数据将于周四公布，届时投资者将获得另一个有关物价上涨的关键数据，这也将有助于窥探美联储未来几个月的加息步伐。Optiver估计，期权定价显示，如果共和党获胜，标普500指数最多将上涨0.7%;如果民主党继续控制了国会，标普500指数将下跌3.3%。但可以肯定的是，选举结果可能不会立即明朗，特别是如果候选人拒绝承认选举结果或煽动对选举结果的质疑。投票后发生暴力或抗议的风险可能会扰乱民众的情绪。从更长时间来看，美国股市正处于美国总统周期接下来16个季度中最看涨的时期，这让看涨股市的人感到欣慰。Carson Investment Research的数据显示，从历史上看，中期选举年的第四季度和之后的两个季度最为强劲，自1950年以来标普500指数在上述季度的平均涨幅分别为6.6%、7.4%和4.8%。然而，今年的前景因美联储可能加息而变得复杂。上周，鲍威尔打破了外界对美联储调整政策的预期，称美联储加息仍有\"一段路要走\"，其关键政策利率的峰值可能高于预期。SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young表示:“中期季节性因素这次不会持续下去，因为市场仍然没有意识到利率需要在更长时间内维持在高位的事实。一些投资者混淆了美联储的暂停加息与美联储政策转向的关系。转向将意味着美联储正在彻底改变方向。但目前不是。避免衰退的机会非常低，所以美联储很可能在2023年暂停加息，因为他们需要看到他们已经采取的措施对经济的影响。但暂停加息并不意味着暂停后，他们肯定会调低利率。他们可能会暂停加息，然后再次加息，尤其是在通胀居高不下的情况下。”以史为鉴，美联储暂停加息很可能将发生在美股的强势时期。Bespoke Investment Group汇编的数据显示，自二战以来，美国总统选举周期的第三年(明年)是最强劲的一年，标普500指数平均上涨了14%。标普500指数在选举周期的第二年里有57%的时间出现上涨，在第三年83%的时间出现上涨。另一个美股强劲的先例是:标普500指数过去几乎没有在中期选举后出现过任何下跌。根据All Star Charts投资策略师Willie Delwiche对1950年以来数据的分析，平均而言，该指数在中期选举后的一个月、三个月、半年和一整年都走高。中期选举一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了15%。在Delwiche看来，逻辑是这样的:当权的政客想要连任，所以他们开始在大选前制定更宽松的政策。但这一次，接下来会发生什么几乎不确定，对通胀的不满可能会改变典型的政治剧本。Delwiche称：“这个周期的不同之处在于，到目前为止我们还没有看到更多的刺激政策，反而情况相反。这个周期不是对即将发生的事情的预期，而是对已经发生的事情的反应。如果共和党在中期选举中获胜，政策可能会更加有利于市场，这可能会支撑标普指数。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984872046,"gmtCreate":1667611156086,"gmtModify":1676537943759,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984872046","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984876767,"gmtCreate":1667611141460,"gmtModify":1676537943752,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984876767","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322205,"gmtCreate":1667541159308,"gmtModify":1676537934788,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322205","repostId":"1116728116","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322802,"gmtCreate":1667541144806,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322802","repostId":"1166983194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166983194","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667537951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166983194?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 12:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Onshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points within a day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166983194","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一度升破7.25关口。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina's quotation, the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points against the US dollar during the day, and once rose above the 7.25 mark. According to China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose nearly 600 points against the US dollar during the day, reaching a maximum of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Onshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points within a day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOnshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points within a day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 12:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina's quotation, the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points against the US dollar during the day, and once rose above the 7.25 mark. According to China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose nearly 600 points against the US dollar during the day, reaching a maximum of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cccbce0c5998697ff43e746c3c08fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166983194","content_text":"据新浪报价，离岸人民币兑美元日内大涨超800点，一度升破7.25关口。据中国货币网，在岸人民币兑美元日内大涨近600点，最高报7.2422。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322190,"gmtCreate":1667541134511,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322190","repostId":"1151050074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151050074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667538169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151050074?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:02","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, and technology and Internet stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151050074","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4, the Hang Seng Technology Index jumped in the afternoon, now up more than 10%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 7%; Technology and Internet stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Up about 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up about 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Rose more than 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, and technology and Internet stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, and technology and Internet stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 13:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4, the Hang Seng Technology Index jumped in the afternoon, now up more than 10%, and the Hang Seng Index rose more than 7%; Technology and Internet stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motor-W</a>Up about 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up about 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>Rose more than 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">Jingdong Group-SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151050074","content_text":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东集团-SW涨超15%，腾讯控股涨近11%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322943,"gmtCreate":1667541122582,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322943","repostId":"1124495599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322017,"gmtCreate":1667541100339,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322017","repostId":"1100967585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100967585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667540649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100967585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100967585","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts pointed out that the net result is likely to be slower economic growth and higher energy costs for a longer period of time. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, which is an old adage in the commodity industry. It means letting the \"invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately driving down commodity prices.</p><p>This maxim has been argued repeatedly for centuries, and generations of financialists and investors have believed in it. Every boom in commodities is followed by a bust: after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the latest shale boom in the United States a decade ago.</p><p>But Javier Blas, a Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist, wrote that,<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, higher crude oil prices have dampened people's demand. But on the other side of the equation-supply isn't working as it should. The oil industry is no longer responding to high oil prices with increased investment as it once did. This means that,<b>Oil demand will be all the driving force behind rebalancing the oil market.</b>The result thereof<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing and high energy costs are persisting longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Petroleum industry spending on oil production and exploration (in $1 billion)</p><p>Why don't high oil prices work on the supply side anymore? Money is certainly not an issue. Big oil has had its best six months ever this year, with profits exceeding $100 billion between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>Just had the best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's third-quarter net profit reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's upgraded expectations and nearly matching tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Profit level.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are asking oil companies to rein in spending, ExxonMobil and its rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell plc, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Companies after reporting huge profits<b>Still no significant increase in expenditure from the original plan has been announced</b>, they work to convert profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and increase production as soon as oil prices were high in an effort to make a killing before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this makes<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: that is, the collective investment of big oil companies is seriously underinvested.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent just $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than it would need to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030,<b>The global energy industry needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) every year,</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement their current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending will still need to increase by 25% from current levels and continue until at least 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that oil companies are now responding to high oil prices understandably, and their reduction in investment in fossil fuel production has been unanimously supported by environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment tycoons. Of course, the industry quickly realized that spending less is instead good business, especially if everyone does it. Currently, only a handful of Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their fossil fuel spending.</p><p>Javier noted that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand peaks and rapidly declines. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has fully reflected this.</p><p>Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to speed up spending in the face of high oil prices. But after witnessing how profitable ignoring the old adage of the industry can bring, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and lower stock prices.</p><p>On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agreed to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden's remarks as an olive branch to the fossil fuel industry, meaning a 180-degree turn on Biden's campaign promises.</p><p>However, Javier said the windfall tax could play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is expected to be modest,<b>Because reducing the profitability of an industry by raising taxes doesn't encourage more spending. He</b>Argues that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the conversation, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors-America needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts pointed out that the net result is likely to be slower economic growth and higher energy costs for a longer period of time. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, which is an old adage in the commodity industry. It means letting the \"invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately driving down commodity prices.</p><p>This maxim has been argued repeatedly for centuries, and generations of financialists and investors have believed in it. Every boom in commodities is followed by a bust: after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the latest shale boom in the United States a decade ago.</p><p>But Javier Blas, a Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist, wrote that,<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, higher crude oil prices have dampened people's demand. But on the other side of the equation-supply isn't working as it should. The oil industry is no longer responding to high oil prices with increased investment as it once did. This means that,<b>Oil demand will be all the driving force behind rebalancing the oil market.</b>The result thereof<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing and high energy costs are persisting longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Petroleum industry spending on oil production and exploration (in $1 billion)</p><p>Why don't high oil prices work on the supply side anymore? Money is certainly not an issue. Big oil has had its best six months ever this year, with profits exceeding $100 billion between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>Just had the best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's third-quarter net profit reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's upgraded expectations and nearly matching tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Profit level.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are asking oil companies to rein in spending, ExxonMobil and its rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell plc, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">British Oil</a>Companies after reporting huge profits<b>Still no significant increase in expenditure from the original plan has been announced</b>, they work to convert profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and increase production as soon as oil prices were high in an effort to make a killing before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this makes<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: that is, the collective investment of big oil companies is seriously underinvested.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent just $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than it would need to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030,<b>The global energy industry needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) every year,</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement their current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending will still need to increase by 25% from current levels and continue until at least 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that oil companies are now responding to high oil prices understandably, and their reduction in investment in fossil fuel production has been unanimously supported by environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment tycoons. Of course, the industry quickly realized that spending less is instead good business, especially if everyone does it. Currently, only a handful of Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their fossil fuel spending.</p><p>Javier noted that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand peaks and rapidly declines. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has fully reflected this.</p><p>Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to speed up spending in the face of high oil prices. But after witnessing how profitable ignoring the old adage of the industry can bring, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and lower stock prices.</p><p>On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agreed to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden's remarks as an olive branch to the fossil fuel industry, meaning a 180-degree turn on Biden's campaign promises.</p><p>However, Javier said the windfall tax could play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is expected to be modest,<b>Because reducing the profitability of an industry by raising taxes doesn't encourage more spending. He</b>Argues that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the conversation, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors-America needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100967585","content_text":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加供应，最终压低商品价格。几个世纪以来，这一格言已被反复论证，一代又一代的金融学家和投资者对此深信不疑。大宗商品领域的每一次繁荣之后都紧随着萧条：如1896年克朗代克淘金热之后，1979年第二次石油危机期间，以及10年前美国最近一次页岩业繁荣之后。但彭博社能源和商品专栏作家哈维尔·布拉斯（Javier Blas） 撰文指出，这一格言似乎在石油市场失效了。可以肯定的是，原油价格上涨抑制了人们的需求。但等式的另一边——供给却没有发挥应有的作用。石油行业不再像以前那样用增加投资来回应高油价。这意味着，石油需求将成为重新平衡石油市场的全部动力。其结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企的持续时间比过去更长。石油行业在石油生产和勘探方面的支出（单位为10亿美元）为什么高油价对供给方面不起作用了？钱当然不是问题。大型石油公司今年经历了有史以来最好的六个月，4月到9月期间利润超过1000亿美元。埃克森美孚刚刚迎来其152年历史上表现最好的一个季度。该公司第三季度净利润达到惊人的196.6亿美元，远超华尔街已经上调之后的预期水平，且几乎比肩科技巨头苹果的利润水平。然而，由于包括贝莱德等机构投资者在内的股东要求石油公司控制支出，埃克森美孚及其竞争对手雪佛龙公司、壳牌公司、total energy SE和英国石油公司在报告巨额利润后仍没有宣布在原计划的基础上大幅增加支出，它们致力于将利润转化为股息和股票回购。过去，一些石油公司高管会试图在油价高企时尽快增加支出，增加产量，以争取在油价暴跌之前大赚一笔。如今，整个石油行业都面临股东要求保持节俭的压力。Javier评论道，这使美国石油行业几乎像一个卡特尔（垄断联盟），结果形成了类似的局面：即大型石油公司集体投资严重不足。去年，石油行业在石油勘探和生产上仅花费3050亿美元，远远低于满足截至2030年潜在石油需求所需的资金。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，从2022年到2030年，全球能源行业每年需要增加近50%（4660亿美元）的支出，以满足当前气候变化政策下的全球石油需求。即使各国政府实施了目前的气候战略和其他承诺，包括一些净零排放目标，投资支出仍需要在目前水平的基础上增长25%，且至少持续到2030年。Javier认为，石油公司现在对高油价的反应无可厚非，它们减少在化石燃料生产上的投入得到了环保慈善家和华尔街投资大佬的一致支持。当然，这个行业很快就意识到，减少支出反而是一笔好生意，尤其是在大家都这样做的情况下。目前，只有少数中东国有石油公司在有意义地增加化石燃料支出。Javier指出，石油行业一直在为一个石油需求见顶并迅速下降的世界做准备。但今天的世界不是这样的世界，甚至不久的将来也不会是。俄乌冲突已经充分反映了这一点。面对高油价，西方政府正试图迫使石油行业加快支出。但在目睹了无视这一行业的古老格言能带来多大利润后，石油业高管们更加不愿意合作。他们知道更多的支出意味着更低的利润和股价。本周一，美国总统拜登威胁称，除非石油公司同意提高石油产量和炼油水平，否则将对该行业征收更高的税。白宫官员把拜登的发言描述为向化石燃料行业抛出的橄榄枝，这意味着拜登在竞选时做出的承诺发生了180度转变。然而，Javier表示，暴利税可能会在谈判中发挥作用，但效果预计不大，因为通过提高税收降低一个行业的盈利能力并不能鼓励更多的支出。他认为，如果拜登想要更多的石油，他需要彻底重置对话，这意味着明确地告诉环保人士和华尔街投资者——美国现在就需要化石燃料。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984326429,"gmtCreate":1667541083861,"gmtModify":1676537934754,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984326429","repostId":"1142363855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984085225,"gmtCreate":1667489502668,"gmtModify":1676537926954,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"[疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984085225","repostId":"1116744518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116744518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667488509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116744518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-03 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Saudi Arabia and Foxconn to build Ceer EV brand with BMW Technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116744518","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to build the Ceer electric vehicle brand. Saudi Ceer will attract US $150 million in FDI and will create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Saudi Arabia and Foxconn to build Ceer EV brand with BMW Technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaudi Arabia and Foxconn to build Ceer EV brand with BMW Technology\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-03 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to build the Ceer electric vehicle brand. Saudi Ceer will attract US $150 million in FDI and will create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef438c9fe438fca6fc47880dd89ad2e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116744518","content_text":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":329174626,"gmtCreate":1615217599565,"gmtModify":1704779766761,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","listText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","text":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329174626","repostId":"1132314005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132314005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615211001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132314005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to handle market declines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132314005","media":"Capital Group","summary":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demo","content":"<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p>\n<p>Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p>\n<p>But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p>\n<p><b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p>\n<p>Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p>\n<p>The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p>\n<p><b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p>\n<p>No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p>\n<p>Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p>\n<p>Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p>\n<p><b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p>\n<p>Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p>\n<p>Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p>\n<p>One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p>\n<p><b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p>\n<p>One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p>\n<p>Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p>\n<p><b>5. Diversification matters</b></p>\n<p>A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p>\n<p>For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p>\n<p><b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p>\n<p>Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p>\n<p>What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p>\n<p>Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p>\n<p><b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p>\n<p>Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p>\n<p>It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to handle market declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to handle market declines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-08 21:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html><strong>Capital Group</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132314005","content_text":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.\nBut smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.\n1. Market declines are part of investing\nStocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.\n\nThe Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.\n2. Time in the market matters, not market timing\nNo one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.\nEvery S&P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.\nEven missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.\n\n3. Emotional investing can be hazardous\nKahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.\nEmotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.\n\nOne way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.\n4. Make a plan and stick to it\nCreating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.\nOne way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.\n\nRetirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.\n5. Diversification matters\nA diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.\nFor investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.\n\n6. Fixed income can help bring balance\nStocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.\n\nWhat’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.\nThough bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.\n7. The market tends to reward long-term investors\nIs it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.\nIt’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.\n\nIt’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912654381,"gmtCreate":1664836871743,"gmtModify":1676537514358,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912654381","repostId":"2272077126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912351638,"gmtCreate":1664760372325,"gmtModify":1676537503485,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912351638","repostId":"1151044809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151044809","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1664757138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151044809?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Robots, a new bet for America's richest man","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151044809","media":"市界","summary":"马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released the assisted driving function, the best biography about its helm Musk, Iron Man of Silicon Valley, was also born.</p><p>This biography took three years to write and reveals a three-dimensional and multi-faceted tech star. However, the first 18 months of writing made author Ashley Vance feel difficult because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with the interview.</p><p>The turning point occurred with a dinner invitation from Musk, after which Musk opened his world to Vance. A topic mentioned by Musk at the dinner is related to Tesla's new actions at present:</p><p>Musk's good friend and Google founder Larry Page is building an army of artificial intelligence robots and believes that robots will always serve mankind. At that time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create evil things..</p><p>Musk was once wary of robots, but now, his own robots are coming into reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new venture</b></p><p>On the Forbes Rich List released on September 27, Musk topped the list of the richest people in the United States with a net worth of US $251 billion, far behind Amazon founder Bezos, who ranked second. But for individuals, the amount of wealth has become a simple number to some extent. What matters is what kind of things you can accomplish with wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new career map.</p><p>On October 1, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the much-anticipated Optimus humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus takes its name from the movie Transformers. According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift up to 20 kilograms of items.</p><p>Story originated in August 2021. At that time, Tesla held the first Artificial Intelligence Day, autonomous driving was the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that appeared at the end inspired the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At that time, Musk only came up with a concept, and then asked the staff to dress up as robots to show it. Even so, applause was not absent. After all, Musk has succeeded many times in turning seemingly impossible things into reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has truly moved from concept to reality.</p><p>The first prototype debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1, Musk called it \"Bumble C\". Compared with the previous concept, this prototype looks quite simple, with colorful cables and components exposed, and its movement is very slow.</p><p>On stage, though, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. In the short video displayed, it can be seen that it also learned to carry items and grabbed a kettle to water the flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Terra humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live broadcast on October 1, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the closer-to-production Optimus prototype took the stage. This robot has made obvious improvements in appearance, and the cables are packaged, which makes it look much cooler. Only it couldn't walk on its own, but was carried onto the stage by several staff members.</p><p>From electric vehicles to robots, it seems that Tesla is not doing its business properly. But in fact, it is precisely because of the accumulation of smart electric vehicles that Tesla's robots are more valued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla shows off humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lurks an underlying logic for Tesla to enter the robot industry. As cars become more and more intelligent, the arrival of \"car robots\" is no longer far away. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots just don't have wheels.</p><p>In terms of automobile intelligence, Tesla has profound technological accumulation, especially autonomous driving technology ranks at the top. If these intelligent technologies can be migrated to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the possibility of rapid rise.</p><p>At the same time, the supply chain system of Tesla's electric vehicles is also its unique advantage. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that Tesla electric vehicles have three common characteristics: electric, mobile, and intelligent, which determines that the two major products can share power batteries, thermal management systems, structural parts, sensors, motors, electronic controls, and reducers. Gear and many other supply chains.</p><p>Musk said during the question-and-answer session of the event that his experience in producing electric vehicles can help build robots.</p><p>According to the positioning, Tesla humanoid robots were originally designed to replace people in doing repetitive, boring and dangerous things. Their first job is likely to be to move items in Tesla factories. In the long run, it is necessary to go into thousands of households and complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns and taking care of the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's expectation for Optimus is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many jobs.</p><p>Musk said humanoid robots are Tesla's most important product development this year, and predicted that this business may be more important than electric vehicles over time.</p><p>However, the development process of humanoid robots has proved that the more powerful the robot is, the less likely it is to become popular.</p><p><b>The long evolution of humanoid robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, human beings had the imagination of robots. In Czech and American science fiction and animation works, robots are omnipotent.</p><p>The research of humanoid robots started in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earlier countries to carry out related research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of humanoid robots\". In 1967, Kato Laboratories, founded by Ichiro Kato, started the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-scale humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a big guy about 2 meters tall and weighing 160 kilograms. Like humans, he has two hands and two legs. It has two cameras on its chest and tactile sensors on its hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on both feet, grasp and move objects with hands, measure the distance from objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and communicate with humans verbally.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that humanoid robots have a relatively complete prototype. On its basis, researchers began to explore in the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction capabilities of humanoid robots, and further develop some basic capabilities.</p><p>For example, although early robots could walk on both feet like humans, their speed was very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is closer to that of humans, and its moving speed reaches 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and intelligent than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people, and can also carry daily goods. Later, it evolved and learned to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots born in recent years, dancing skills are no longer new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou sub-venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Evening, 540 robots from domestic startup UBTECH danced for singer Sun Nan. In the Spring Festival Evening of 2018, UBTECH STEM robots danced again at the guest round table. In the 2019 Spring Festival Gala, six UBTECH robots made a collective appearance and showed off another Popping (shock dance).</p><p>But the most amazing performance is the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They are the current peak of humanoid robot research and development.</p><p>If the performance of ASIMO and UBTECH robots is novice dancers, then Atlas is a master dancer, and its natural and smooth movements far exceed the former.</p><p>Not only that, but Atlas also learned to \"parkour\". It can quickly rush up the steps, run across the \"single-plank bridge\", jump between separated boxes, and even do enough backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots do backflips at the same time. Source: Boston Dynamics official website screenshot)</p><p>This development beyond ordinary people's cognition has made Atlas gain a great reputation. In contrast, the robot launched by Tesla is far from shocking enough.</p><p>But the problem is that despite having Atlas, the highest level in the industry, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In the past development, Boston Dynamics has changed owners three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, by SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control came to the hands of South Korea's Hyundai Motor.</p><p>With the transfer of control, the valuation of Boston Dynamics has also dropped significantly. When Google bought it, it was valued at $3 billion. By the time Hyundai took over, the valuation was only $1.1 billion.</p><p>What happened to Boston Dynamics reflects the key dilemma that limits the development of humanoid robots: even though these robots are technologically advanced and powerful, the high research and development cost makes it difficult for them to commercialize, let alone go to the public.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously traded by Google, which is also related to differences in commercialization. Google wants to understand Boston Dynamics' technologies and how to turn these technologies into consumer products. Boston Dynamics hopes to develop more independently and is unwilling to think too much about commercialization.</p><p>In contrast, Musk obviously considered the question of how humanoid robots will become popular. He claimed at the event that what sets Tesla's design apart from other \"impressive humanoid robots\" is that the Optimus is built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Large-scale mass production can lower costs, and only when the price is low enough can humanoid robots become popular.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of the Optimus robot is about US $30,000, far lower than the cost of the Atlas of about US $2 million, and lower than the cost of a Tesla electric vehicle of US $36,000 per vehicle.</p><p>Now Musk said that the cost of Optimus after mass production will be reduced to less than $20,000.</p><p>If the plan goes well, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry. But even if the price is greatly reduced, the attractiveness of Optimus in the eyes of ordinary consumers is still questionable.</p><p>An investment institution partner who holds Tesla shares previously said that investors are not excited about Optimus and think it is unlikely that such products will work on a larger scale.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus is difficult to get rid of is that if it is only to complete certain tasks, such as carrying items and watering flowers for demonstrations, then non-humanoid robots can also do it, and the latter cost can be lower.</p><p>In addition, some robotics experts mentioned before Tesla Artificial Intelligence Day that don't trust Musk too much.</p><p><b>The age of adventure robots</b></p><p>If we put aside the appearance and focus on practical uses, although the capabilities are not amazing enough, robots that focus on serving humans in certain scenarios are more worthy of attention.</p><p>From this perspective, the actual human society has been full of robots, but most of them do not appear in the form of human beings.</p><p>In the smart restaurant of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-brewed coffee and mix cocktails. In general shopping malls, robots can welcome guests and guide shopping. Robots in hospitals can operate surgeries, and robots in hotels can do cleaning and disinfection.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate the changes that will happen in the next two years and underestimate the changes that will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>As far as the development of the entire robot industry is concerned, changes are taking place rapidly.</p><p>According to a report by Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US $20 billion by 2023. According to data from the China Institute of Electronics, the compound annual growth rate of global service robot sales from 2016 to 2021 is 24%, and the global market size is expected to reach US $15.99 billion in 2022.</p><p>With the trend of aging population and the shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to rise sharply. Japan's vigorous development of robot industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Back to Musk's quest. The research and development of humanoid robots has long been proved to be a difficult task to please. From the disclosure of plans in this area in 2021 to the display of the progress of the project on this Artificial Intelligence Day, whether Tesla's humanoid robot can be popularized on a large scale has been questioned.</p><p>Judging from the current performance of Tesla robots, it is not eye-catching. They have mastered skills that robots can do before.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is indeed full of temptations. You can imagine what it would be like if robots had flexible joints and movement abilities like humans and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\" summarizes Musk's past, saying that what he experienced was an \"adventurous life\". Now, humanoid robots are a new adventure.</p><p>The result may not be smooth, but the risk itself is meaning.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robots, a new bet for America's richest man</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobots, a new bet for America's richest man\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-03 08:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released the assisted driving function, the best biography about its helm Musk, Iron Man of Silicon Valley, was also born.</p><p>This biography took three years to write and reveals a three-dimensional and multi-faceted tech star. However, the first 18 months of writing made author Ashley Vance feel difficult because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with the interview.</p><p>The turning point occurred with a dinner invitation from Musk, after which Musk opened his world to Vance. A topic mentioned by Musk at the dinner is related to Tesla's new actions at present:</p><p>Musk's good friend and Google founder Larry Page is building an army of artificial intelligence robots and believes that robots will always serve mankind. At that time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create evil things..</p><p>Musk was once wary of robots, but now, his own robots are coming into reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new venture</b></p><p>On the Forbes Rich List released on September 27, Musk topped the list of the richest people in the United States with a net worth of US $251 billion, far behind Amazon founder Bezos, who ranked second. But for individuals, the amount of wealth has become a simple number to some extent. What matters is what kind of things you can accomplish with wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new career map.</p><p>On October 1, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the much-anticipated Optimus humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus takes its name from the movie Transformers. According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift up to 20 kilograms of items.</p><p>Story originated in August 2021. At that time, Tesla held the first Artificial Intelligence Day, autonomous driving was the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that appeared at the end inspired the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At that time, Musk only came up with a concept, and then asked the staff to dress up as robots to show it. Even so, applause was not absent. After all, Musk has succeeded many times in turning seemingly impossible things into reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has truly moved from concept to reality.</p><p>The first prototype debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1, Musk called it \"Bumble C\". Compared with the previous concept, this prototype looks quite simple, with colorful cables and components exposed, and its movement is very slow.</p><p>On stage, though, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. In the short video displayed, it can be seen that it also learned to carry items and grabbed a kettle to water the flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Terra humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live broadcast on October 1, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the closer-to-production Optimus prototype took the stage. This robot has made obvious improvements in appearance, and the cables are packaged, which makes it look much cooler. Only it couldn't walk on its own, but was carried onto the stage by several staff members.</p><p>From electric vehicles to robots, it seems that Tesla is not doing its business properly. But in fact, it is precisely because of the accumulation of smart electric vehicles that Tesla's robots are more valued.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla shows off humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lurks an underlying logic for Tesla to enter the robot industry. As cars become more and more intelligent, the arrival of \"car robots\" is no longer far away. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots just don't have wheels.</p><p>In terms of automobile intelligence, Tesla has profound technological accumulation, especially autonomous driving technology ranks at the top. If these intelligent technologies can be migrated to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the possibility of rapid rise.</p><p>At the same time, the supply chain system of Tesla's electric vehicles is also its unique advantage. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that Tesla electric vehicles have three common characteristics: electric, mobile, and intelligent, which determines that the two major products can share power batteries, thermal management systems, structural parts, sensors, motors, electronic controls, and reducers. Gear and many other supply chains.</p><p>Musk said during the question-and-answer session of the event that his experience in producing electric vehicles can help build robots.</p><p>According to the positioning, Tesla humanoid robots were originally designed to replace people in doing repetitive, boring and dangerous things. Their first job is likely to be to move items in Tesla factories. In the long run, it is necessary to go into thousands of households and complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns and taking care of the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's expectation for Optimus is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many jobs.</p><p>Musk said humanoid robots are Tesla's most important product development this year, and predicted that this business may be more important than electric vehicles over time.</p><p>However, the development process of humanoid robots has proved that the more powerful the robot is, the less likely it is to become popular.</p><p><b>The long evolution of humanoid robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, human beings had the imagination of robots. In Czech and American science fiction and animation works, robots are omnipotent.</p><p>The research of humanoid robots started in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earlier countries to carry out related research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of humanoid robots\". In 1967, Kato Laboratories, founded by Ichiro Kato, started the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-scale humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a big guy about 2 meters tall and weighing 160 kilograms. Like humans, he has two hands and two legs. It has two cameras on its chest and tactile sensors on its hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on both feet, grasp and move objects with hands, measure the distance from objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and communicate with humans verbally.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that humanoid robots have a relatively complete prototype. On its basis, researchers began to explore in the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction capabilities of humanoid robots, and further develop some basic capabilities.</p><p>For example, although early robots could walk on both feet like humans, their speed was very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is closer to that of humans, and its moving speed reaches 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and intelligent than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people, and can also carry daily goods. Later, it evolved and learned to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots born in recent years, dancing skills are no longer new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou sub-venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Evening, 540 robots from domestic startup UBTECH danced for singer Sun Nan. In the Spring Festival Evening of 2018, UBTECH STEM robots danced again at the guest round table. In the 2019 Spring Festival Gala, six UBTECH robots made a collective appearance and showed off another Popping (shock dance).</p><p>But the most amazing performance is the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They are the current peak of humanoid robot research and development.</p><p>If the performance of ASIMO and UBTECH robots is novice dancers, then Atlas is a master dancer, and its natural and smooth movements far exceed the former.</p><p>Not only that, but Atlas also learned to \"parkour\". It can quickly rush up the steps, run across the \"single-plank bridge\", jump between separated boxes, and even do enough backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots do backflips at the same time. Source: Boston Dynamics official website screenshot)</p><p>This development beyond ordinary people's cognition has made Atlas gain a great reputation. In contrast, the robot launched by Tesla is far from shocking enough.</p><p>But the problem is that despite having Atlas, the highest level in the industry, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In the past development, Boston Dynamics has changed owners three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, by SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control came to the hands of South Korea's Hyundai Motor.</p><p>With the transfer of control, the valuation of Boston Dynamics has also dropped significantly. When Google bought it, it was valued at $3 billion. By the time Hyundai took over, the valuation was only $1.1 billion.</p><p>What happened to Boston Dynamics reflects the key dilemma that limits the development of humanoid robots: even though these robots are technologically advanced and powerful, the high research and development cost makes it difficult for them to commercialize, let alone go to the public.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously traded by Google, which is also related to differences in commercialization. Google wants to understand Boston Dynamics' technologies and how to turn these technologies into consumer products. Boston Dynamics hopes to develop more independently and is unwilling to think too much about commercialization.</p><p>In contrast, Musk obviously considered the question of how humanoid robots will become popular. He claimed at the event that what sets Tesla's design apart from other \"impressive humanoid robots\" is that the Optimus is built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Large-scale mass production can lower costs, and only when the price is low enough can humanoid robots become popular.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of the Optimus robot is about US $30,000, far lower than the cost of the Atlas of about US $2 million, and lower than the cost of a Tesla electric vehicle of US $36,000 per vehicle.</p><p>Now Musk said that the cost of Optimus after mass production will be reduced to less than $20,000.</p><p>If the plan goes well, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry. But even if the price is greatly reduced, the attractiveness of Optimus in the eyes of ordinary consumers is still questionable.</p><p>An investment institution partner who holds Tesla shares previously said that investors are not excited about Optimus and think it is unlikely that such products will work on a larger scale.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus is difficult to get rid of is that if it is only to complete certain tasks, such as carrying items and watering flowers for demonstrations, then non-humanoid robots can also do it, and the latter cost can be lower.</p><p>In addition, some robotics experts mentioned before Tesla Artificial Intelligence Day that don't trust Musk too much.</p><p><b>The age of adventure robots</b></p><p>If we put aside the appearance and focus on practical uses, although the capabilities are not amazing enough, robots that focus on serving humans in certain scenarios are more worthy of attention.</p><p>From this perspective, the actual human society has been full of robots, but most of them do not appear in the form of human beings.</p><p>In the smart restaurant of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-brewed coffee and mix cocktails. In general shopping malls, robots can welcome guests and guide shopping. Robots in hospitals can operate surgeries, and robots in hotels can do cleaning and disinfection.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate the changes that will happen in the next two years and underestimate the changes that will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>As far as the development of the entire robot industry is concerned, changes are taking place rapidly.</p><p>According to a report by Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US $20 billion by 2023. According to data from the China Institute of Electronics, the compound annual growth rate of global service robot sales from 2016 to 2021 is 24%, and the global market size is expected to reach US $15.99 billion in 2022.</p><p>With the trend of aging population and the shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to rise sharply. Japan's vigorous development of robot industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Back to Musk's quest. The research and development of humanoid robots has long been proved to be a difficult task to please. From the disclosure of plans in this area in 2021 to the display of the progress of the project on this Artificial Intelligence Day, whether Tesla's humanoid robot can be popularized on a large scale has been questioned.</p><p>Judging from the current performance of Tesla robots, it is not eye-catching. They have mastered skills that robots can do before.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is indeed full of temptations. You can imagine what it would be like if robots had flexible joints and movement abilities like humans and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\" summarizes Musk's past, saying that what he experienced was an \"adventurous life\". Now, humanoid robots are a new adventure.</p><p>The result may not be smooth, but the risk itself is meaning.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d5fe89154533692581a94460e63d11","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151044809","content_text":"文/李楠特斯拉正式发布辅助驾驶功能的2015年，关于其掌舵者马斯克的最好一本传记《硅谷钢铁侠》也诞生了。这本传记写了三年，揭示了一个立体多面的科技明星。然而写作的前18个月让作者阿什利·万斯倍感艰辛，因为马斯克本人不愿配合采访。转机发生于马斯克发出的一次晚宴邀请，之后马斯克向万斯开放了自己的世界。晚宴中马斯克提到的一个话题，正与眼下特斯拉的新动作有关：马斯克的好朋友、谷歌创始人拉里·佩奇，正在建造人工智能机器人大军，并认为机器人会永远服务于人类，彼时的马斯克则忧虑，佩奇可能会不小心制造出邪恶的东西。马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。马斯克的新事业在9月27日发布的福布斯富豪榜上，马斯克以2510亿美元的身家登顶美国富豪榜首，远远甩开身居第二名的亚马逊创始人贝索斯。但天量财富对个人而言，某种程度上已经成了单纯的数字。重要的是，用财富做成什么样的事情。马斯克开辟了事业新版图。北京时间10月1日，在特斯拉的“2022 AI Day”上，备受关注的Optimus（擎天柱）人形机器人原型机终于亮相。Optimus的名字来源于电影《变形金刚》。根据之前设定的参数，其身高约1米72，体重约57公斤，行走速度每小时8公里，最多可以提起20公斤重的物品。故事起源于2021年8月。当时特斯拉举办了第一届人工智能日，自动驾驶是活动重点，最后出场的人形机器人则激发了普罗大众的好奇心。当时马斯克仅仅拿出了一个概念，再让工作人员打扮成机器人的样子做了一番展示。即便如此，掌声没有缺席。毕竟把看似不可能的事情变成现实，马斯克已经成功多次。而现在，马斯克的\"新宠\"从概念真正走入现实。在10月1日的人工智能日上登场的第一台原型机，马斯克称之为\"Bumble C（大黄蜂 C）\"。相比之前的概念，这台原型机看起来相当简陋，彩色的线缆和元器件裸露在外，动作也非常迟缓。不过在舞台上，它完成了稳定的行走，并向人们挥手致意。而在展示的短视频中，可以看到它还学会了搬运物品，抓起水壶给花浇水。（特拉人形机器人原型机Bumble C。来源：北京时间10月1日特斯拉直播）之后，更接近生产的Optimus原型机登台。这一台机器人在外观上有了明显进步，线缆都被包装好，看起来酷炫得多。只是它不能自己行走，而是被几位工作人员搬上了舞台。从电动车到机器人，似乎特斯拉有些不务正业。但实际上，正因为有智能电动车的积累，才让特斯拉的机器人更受重视。（特斯拉展示人形机器人原型机Optimus。来源：特斯拉直播）这里潜伏着特斯拉进军机器人产业的一条底层逻辑。随着汽车越来越智能，“汽车机器人”的到来已经不再遥远。在马斯克眼中，特斯拉电动车是有轮子的机器人，而人形机器人只是没有了轮子而已。在汽车智能化方面，特斯拉具备深厚的技术积累，尤其自动驾驶技术位居头部。如果这些智能技术可以迁移到机器人上，那么特斯拉的人形机器人就有了快速崛起的可能。同时特斯拉电动车的供应链体系，也是其独特优势。中信建投指出，特斯拉电动车具有电动、可移动、智能化三大共同特点，这就决定了两大产品可以共享动力电池、热管理系统、结构件、传感器、电机、电控、减速机等很多供应链。马斯克在此次活动的问答环节表示，生产电动车的经验，可以帮助到机器人的构建。按照定位，特斯拉人形机器人最初是替代人们做一些重复、无聊又危险的事，它们的第一份工作很有可能是在特斯拉工厂里移动物品。长远来看，则要走进千家万户，完成做饭、修草坪、照顾老人等任务。概括而言，马斯克对Optimus的期许是一种通用机器人，可以把人从许多工作中解放出来。马斯克称，人形机器人是特斯拉今年最重要的产品研发，并预测，随着时间推移，这项业务的重要性可能超过电动汽车。但人形机器人的发展过程证明，越是能力强大的机器人，越不容易普及。人形机器人漫长进化大约一百年前，人类便产生了关于机器人的想象。在捷克与美国的科幻和动漫作品中，机器人是无所不能的一种存在。人形机器人的研究，则在20世纪60年代后期起步。日本是较早开展相关研究的国家之一。早稻田大学教授加藤一郎被视为“仿人形机器人之父”。1967年，由加藤一郎创建的加藤实验室启动了WABOT项目。五年后，世界上第一个全尺寸人形“智能”机器人WABOT-1诞生。这是一个身高约2米、体重160公斤的大家伙，和人类一样拥有两只手、两条腿。它的胸部装有两个摄像头，手部还装有触觉传感器。(WABOT-1。来源：早稻田大学)它可以用双脚走路，用手抓住并移动物体，通过视觉和声学传感器，测量与物体之间距离，并且可以跟人类进行语言上的交流。WABOT-1的出现，意味着人形机器人具备了较完备的雏形，在它的基础上，研究人员开始向智能化方向探索，研究人形机器人的自主控制与交互能力，并深入发展一些基础能力。比如，早期的机器人虽然能像人一样用两足行走，但速度很慢。后来的机器人则学会了奔跑。代表产品之一，是ASIMO。这是一款诞生在2000年的机器人，由丰田研发，其外表更接近人类，且移动速度达到了每小时6公里。同时，ASIMO比之前的机器人更为灵活和聪明。它可以跟人手拉手一起走路，还能进行日常的物品搬运，后来不断进化，又学会了单腿跳跃和跳舞。对近些年诞生的人形机器人来说，跳舞的技能早已不新鲜。2016年春晚的广州分会场，国内创业公司优必选的540台机器人为歌手孙楠伴舞。2018年的春晚，优必选STEM机器人在嘉宾圆桌上再次起舞。2019年春晚，6台优必选机器人集体亮相，又秀了一把Popping（震感舞）。但表现最惊艳的是波士顿动力推出的Atlas。它们是当前人形机器人研发的高峰。如果说ASIMO和优必选机器人的表现是跳舞新手，那Atlas就是跳舞高手，其动作之自然流畅远超前者。不仅如此，Atlas还学会了“跑酷”。它能够快速冲上台阶，跑过“独木桥”，在隔开的箱子间跳跃，甚至做够做后空翻。(两位Atlas机器人同时做后空翻。来源：波士顿动力官网截图)这种超越常人认知的发展，让Atlas收获了极大的美誉。相比之下，特斯拉推出的机器人远不够震撼。但问题在于，尽管拥有业内水平最高的Atlas，波士顿动力不被资本市场看好。在过去的发展中，波士顿动力三易其主：2014年被谷歌收购，2017年被软银收购，2020年，它的控制权又到了韩国现代汽车的手上。伴随控制权的转移，波士顿动力的估值也大幅下降。谷歌买入的时候，估值是30亿美元。到现代接手，估值仅剩11亿美元。波士顿动力的遭遇，反映出了限制人形机器人发展的关键困局：即便这些机器人技术先进，能力强大，但高昂的研发成本，让它们难以商业化，更不要说走向大众。事实上，波士顿动力此前被谷歌交易，与商业化方面的分歧也有关系。谷歌方面希望了解波士顿动力的技术，以及如何将这些技术转化为消费类产品。而波士顿动力希望更独立地发展，不愿过多考虑商业化问题。相比之下，马斯克显然考虑了人形机器人如何普及的问题。他在此次活动中声称，特斯拉的设计与其他“令人印象深刻的人形机器人”的不同在于，Optimus是为“数百万”单位的大规模生产而制造。大规模量产可以压低成本，而只有价格足够低，人形机器人才有可能普及。据浙商证券早先报告，Optimus机器人的成本约3万美元，远远低于Atlas约200万美元的成本，且低于特斯拉电动车3.6万美元的单车成本。现在马斯克表示，Optimus量产后的成本会降低到2万美元以下。如果计划顺利，那么人形机器人产业可能随特斯拉的入局而加速发展。但即便价格大幅降低，Optimus在普通消费者眼中的吸引力依旧存疑。一位持有特斯拉股票的投资机构合伙人此前表示，投资者对Optimus并不感到兴奋，认为这类产品在更大范围内发挥作用的可能性很小。Optimus很难摆脱的一个根本问题是，如果只是为了完成某些特定任务，比如它做演示的搬运物品、给花浇水，那么非人形的机器人同样可以完成，且后者的成本可以更低。另外有机器人专家在特斯拉人工智能日之前提到，不要过度相信马斯克。探险机器人时代如果撇开外表，着眼于实际用途，那么能力虽然不够惊艳，但专注于在某些场景为人类服务的机器人，更值得关注。从这个视角来看，实际人类社会已经遍布机器人了，只是绝大部分没有以人的外形出现。北京冬奥会的智慧餐厅里，机器人能烹调中餐西餐，做手冲咖啡，调鸡尾酒。一般商场里，机器人可以进行迎宾和导购。医院的机器人可以操作手术，酒店里的机器人可以做清洁和消毒。（北京冬奥会智慧餐厅）比尔·盖茨曾说：我们总是高估未来2年会发生的改变，低估了未来10年将发生的变化。就整个机器人产业的发展而言，变革在快速发生。据浙商证券报告，全球服务机器人市场规模稳定增长，预计到2023年突破200亿美元。中国电子学会数据显示，2016-2021年全球服务机器人销售额的复合年均增长率为24%，预计2022年全球市场规模将达159.9亿美元。在人口老龄化趋势和劳动力资源短缺的情况下，人类对机器人的需求注定大幅上涨。日本大力发展机器人产业，就与此有关。可以说，一个被机器人深刻改变的时代已经拉开帷幕。人类需要机器人。回到马斯克的探索上。人形机器人的研发，早被证明是吃力难讨好的事情。从2021年透露这方面计划，到这一次人工智能日展示项目进展，特斯拉人形机器人能否大规模普及一直受到质疑。就眼下特斯拉机器人的表现来看，也谈不上亮眼。它们掌握的技能，之前已经有机器人可以做到。但人形机器人的前景的确充满诱惑。可以想象，如果机器人具备了像人一样灵活的关节和运动能力，而且大规模出现在人们的生活中，会是怎样一番景象。《硅谷钢铁侠》这本传记概括马斯克的过往，说他所经历的是一场\"冒险人生\"。现在，人形机器人成了一次新的冒险。结果未必顺利，不过冒险本身就是意义。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916889695,"gmtCreate":1664555630017,"gmtModify":1676537477021,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916889695","repostId":"1128663550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin waits for tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon who is trapped in financial difficulties can survive.</p><p>In 2019, the white knight Sun Hongbin, who was in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the quagmire at that time, for a total price of 14.9 billion. The existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white knights of the past also needed to save them. These two luxury residential projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring, which has been in danger for six months.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarongben Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the aforementioned two luxury housing projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects with a value of tens of billions will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person analyzed to Wall Street News that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks from the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, acquiring a controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to sources, this time CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan in funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll up, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets. Similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion, they acquired project equity and injected funds to allow the project company to gradually resume normal operations and restore hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that these two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin's hard negotiations and mediation for several months have also been settled. And at once it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. From the second half of 2021 to the present, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan in funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the market's unexpected downturn this year still caused him to fall in May.</p><p>A person close to Sun Hongbin said that in the last six months or so, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and he has been traveling around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for half a year, has finally welcomed the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street News also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors also express support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually getting out of the current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan. It is one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longfor. At the same time, Sunac ranks third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if it wants to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors have withdrawn their liquidation petition. With CITIC's involvement in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>There are indications that Sun Hongbin, a big man in the real estate industry who is famous for his boldness and speech, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project, a number of projects will be promoted to \"come alive\". At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a boss who once fell and was reborn in the Sunco stage, will perform another miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" on Sunac. He and this company will be able to rejuvenate after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989226753,"gmtCreate":1666021029372,"gmtModify":1676537693585,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989226753","repostId":"1196156325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196156325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666018983,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196156325?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 23:03","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"UK tax cuts make a U-turn!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196156325","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特","content":"<p><div>British government bonds, currencies and stocks began to rise on October 17, local time, as the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed British Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turning point after several days of British political and market turmoil. According to Agence France-Presse, Hunter announced on the 17th that he cancelled the debt-driven tax cut policy to further calm the market turmoil, which is another major change of the British government. \"We will roll back almost all of the tax measures we announced three weeks ago.\" Hunter said in a televised address that \"the most important goal for our country right now is stability.\" Also according to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UK tax cuts make a U-turn!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUK tax cuts make a U-turn!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国际金融报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-17 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>British government bonds, currencies and stocks began to rise on October 17, local time, as the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed British Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turning point after several days of British political and market turmoil. According to Agence France-Presse, Hunter announced on the 17th that he cancelled the debt-driven tax cut policy to further calm the market turmoil, which is another major change of the British government. \"We will roll back almost all of the tax measures we announced three weeks ago.\" Hunter said in a televised address that \"the most important goal for our country right now is stability.\" Also according to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05bdf200c4138336b0f7e4174ef1a988","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196156325","content_text":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特于17日宣布取消了由债务推动的减税政策，以进一步平息市场动荡，这是英国政府的又一次重大转变。“我们将撤销三周前宣布的几乎所有税收措施。”亨特在电视讲话中说，“我们国家目前最重要的目标是稳定。”另据《华尔街日报》报道，亨特实际上放弃了首相特拉斯的标志性减税计划。亨特表示，为了恢复市场对英国经济的信心，有些税需要上调，公共开支需要削减。他认为，特拉斯举债支持减税来促进增长的计划是个错误。报道指出，这些自20世纪70年代以来最大规模的减税措施使市场“受到惊吓”，令保守党在民调中的支持率陡降。“通过增加借款和债务来为减税提供资金的做法行不通。”亨特说，“减税的前提是，政府能够负担得起相关资金。”声明发布后，英镑对美元汇率一度飙升1.4%至盘中高点，最后上涨不到1%，对欧元汇率则略低，与公告发布前大致相同。伦敦当日的富时100指数上涨0.5%，关注英国国内中型股的富时250指数表现优于欧洲同行，上涨1%。目前，市场对亨特的声明虽反应积极，但仍有声音担忧，该声明能否得到政府或保守党的支持？政策连续转弯，也让英国首相特拉斯的执政信誉受到重创，部分议员据称正在酝酿“逼宫”。“几乎所有减税措施被逆转”英国天空新闻网报道称，亨特在一份声明表示，在“迷你预算”政策中的“几乎所有”减税措施都被取消了。据报道，亨特取消了从明年4月起将个人所得税基本税率从20%下调至19%的计划。他说，基本税率将无限期地保持在20%，直到经济环境允许下调为止。亨特表示，没有哪个政府能够控制市场，但它可以为公共财政提供确定性。他说，他宣布的计划将在本月底全面财政计划公布之前避免不确定性，这将带来信心和稳定。能源方面，亨特称，措施中最大的单项支出是能源价格保障，这是一项里程碑式的政策，支持数百万人度过一个艰难的冬天。从明年4月开始，财政部将牵头进行一项评估，研究如何帮助家庭和企业解决能源账单问题。能源价格保障将于明年4月结束。他说：“我们的目标是设计一种新的方法，既节省纳税人的钱，又把援助的目标对准那些最需要帮助的人。”报道称，市场对亨特的声明反应积极，英镑兑美元延续了早盘的涨势。该声明还导致英国政府债券的利率(或收益率)下降，降低了政府借款的成本。英国广播公司(BBC)经济学编辑称，该声明不同寻常，这或许标志着英国经济史上最大的180度大转弯。该声明应该有助于恢复经济信誉，但这是一个如此大的政治转变，以至于人们怀疑整个内阁、政府和保守党是否会支持它，但这位新财政大臣要传达的信息是：别无选择。特拉斯能否度过危机？路透社称，该声明比原计划提前两周，亨特正在努力阻止投资者对特拉斯领导的政府信心急剧下降。自前不久接替被解职的克沃滕以来，亨特一直在努力改写特拉斯的经济计划。英国《金融时报》17日报道称，亨特承认，特拉斯政府9月出台的“迷你预算”政策“走得太远、太快”。他还批评前任克沃滕犯了两个重大“错误”，并称相关两项措施正在“被纠正”。目前，英国民众饱受通胀之苦，家庭能源账单将飙升至历史最高水平。分析人士指出，在物价全面上涨、民众生活成本飙升的背景下，政府大规模的减税措施将进一步刺激英国的通胀率。英国一位高级官员表示，“特拉斯做的显然还不够，接下来还会有更多的掉头和更多的痛苦。我不认为他们意识到了情况可能会变得更糟。”《金融时报》指出，任何更多的政府政策掉头都很可能进一步危及首相的地位。一些资深议会议员预测，她将难以渡过当前危机。有英媒指出，超100名保守党议员已经准备好本周提交针对特拉斯的不信任案。9月23日，英国政府宣布该国50年来最大规模减税措施，但却引发市场动荡，饱受外界质疑和批评。重重压力之下，英国政府的减税措施于10月3日出现重大转折，政府宣布放弃取消最高所得税税率计划。仅10余天的时间，英国政府又做出重大政策调整。特拉斯14日宣布，将保留上届政府宣布的公司税上调计划，而她在保守党党魁竞选中曾承诺将取消该增长。她还炒掉了亨特的前任克沃滕，但特拉斯未能借助这些举措来安抚市场。在她匆匆举行为时大约8分钟的唐宁街新闻发布会后，英国国债市场遭遇新一轮抛售，减税计划所引发的动荡仍在持续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBPmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036272693,"gmtCreate":1647134772940,"gmtModify":1676534196941,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036272693","repostId":"1177231006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177231006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646635096,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177231006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. daylight saving time on the 13th, U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177231006","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. 2022 daylight saving time will start at 02:00 Eastern Time on March 13, 2022 and end at 02:00 Eastern Time on November 6, 2022. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading session of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by 1 hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day. March 14 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing time: 16:00 ~ 21:30 (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing time: 04:00 ~ 08:00 (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. daylight saving time on the 13th, U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. daylight saving time on the 13th, U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-07 14:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. 2022 daylight saving time will start at 02:00 Eastern Time on March 13, 2022 and end at 02:00 Eastern Time on November 6, 2022. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading session of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by 1 hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day. March 14 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing time: 16:00 ~ 21:30 (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing time: 04:00 ~ 08:00 (daylight saving time, March ~ early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177231006","content_text":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899621104,"gmtCreate":1628179742708,"gmtModify":1703502760385,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899621104","repostId":"1177628375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177628375","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628175372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177628375?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to rise, hitting a record high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177628375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV","content":"<p>On Thursday, U.S. mobile payment enterprises<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>It continued to rise after the market opened, rising more than 6% as of press time, a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently disclosed its second-quarter financial report in advance. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and total transaction payments (GPV) increased 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was US $4.68 billion, of which Bitcoin's revenue reached US $2.72 billion.</p><p>In addition, Square also announced the acquisition of Australian financial payment company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition so far, which not only expands the consumer market for itself, but also is undoubtedly a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue to explore the US market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to rise, hitting a record high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to rise, hitting a record high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, U.S. mobile payment enterprises<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>It continued to rise after the market opened, rising more than 6% as of press time, a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently disclosed its second-quarter financial report in advance. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and total transaction payments (GPV) increased 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was US $4.68 billion, of which Bitcoin's revenue reached US $2.72 billion.</p><p>In addition, Square also announced the acquisition of Australian financial payment company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition so far, which not only expands the consumer market for itself, but also is undoubtedly a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue to explore the US market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c35001aff2d0c88ed509c6e83cf2e54","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177628375","content_text":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV）增长88%达到428亿美元。包括比特币在内的总营收为46.8亿美元，其中比特币一项收入达到27.2亿美元。\n此外，Square还宣布以290亿美元的价格收购澳洲金融支付公司Afterpay。这是迄今为止Square最大的一笔收购，不仅为自己扩大了消费者市场，对Afterpay继续开拓美国市场无疑也是个好机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362362147,"gmtCreate":1614598404689,"gmtModify":1704772860919,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looking forward to long term","listText":"looking forward to long term","text":"looking forward to long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362362147","repostId":"1161169607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161169607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614584947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161169607?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161169607","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yiel","content":"<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd3fa48c3856c9963ae7e9f6e6de625\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"232\">It's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"<b>the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>First, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Predictably,<i><b>Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"</b></i>with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So what<i><b>would</b></i>cause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"<b>keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"</b>But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdbd39d9b2a4e20ee8ef423435a57d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"169\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Second, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Addressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast that<b>S&amp;P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.</b>In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Third, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,<b>but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.</b>Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a23015dc5dbaee1d4660e8e902a000\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"175\">Of course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications for<i><b>rotations within the equity market,</b></i>a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,<b>this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.</b>Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&amp;P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.</p>\n<p>As Kostin writes, \"<b>this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"</b>One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is that<b>a basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.</b>The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.</p>\n<p>To be sure, while earnings for S&amp;P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,<b>the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.</b>In fact,<b>1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.</b></p>\n<p>Getting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.<b>But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"</b>Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"<b>those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672e0f0b03d6b3cec8ec067276919bf9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"171\"><b>Recently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.</b>The cyclical and virus-affected firms with<b>negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.</b>Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,<b>the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.</b>Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00a42075ac35763072cb85546315087\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\">Putting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"<b>looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"</b>The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b2dbfc010259d8bc5120f85d13070\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"364\">And although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes that<b>those stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.</b></p>\n<p>Which brings us to the other side of the table: the<b>chart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021</b>. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e14fcedd553203d06c6a3639a17f8f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161169607","content_text":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.\nIt's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"\n\nFirst, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.\n\nPredictably,Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So whatwouldcause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.\n\n\nSecond, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.\n\nAddressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast thatS&P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.\n\nThird, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.\n\nAs the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.\nOf course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications forrotations within the equity market,a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November\nWhich brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.\nAs Kostin writes, \"this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is thata basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.\nTo be sure, while earnings for S&P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.In fact,1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.\nGetting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"\nRecently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.The cyclical and virus-affected firms withnegative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.\nPutting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:\nAnd although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes thatthose stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.\nWhich brings us to the other side of the table: thechart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929245153,"gmtCreate":1670687391372,"gmtModify":1676538417414,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed dove ≠ U.S. stocks rise? The market is beginning to worry about a recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is slipping into recession have finally touched a nerve on Wall Street. In the past two months, investors have ignored all kinds of warnings-from the worst U.S. bond yield curve inversion in 40 years to the collapse of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to stay above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now become gloomy. They are worried that if the Federal Reserve really slows down the pace of rate hike, it will signal that the U.S. economy is in a downturn.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. service sector shrank last month; While the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with a recent increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but is still high enough to keep the Fed on its toes, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: \"We will move from'bad data is good news' to'bad data is bad news' because it is a signal that the economy is moving faster and worse than most people expect. speed weakening.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to see a stream of dismal economic news as bad news rather than as reason for upside from the prospect of Fed policy easing. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-as evidenced by the higher-than-expected growth rate of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, this is enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the previous three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices for raw material producers. More economically sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. Earlier in 2022, when inflation scares raged, bonds plunged in all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their position as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20 + Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you're buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut sometime in the future, unfortunately that means economic weakness will also come sometime in the future. So when you make a wish, be careful.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been backed by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs have been unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a declining 2023 in a decidedly pessimistic manner. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global stocks at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks after they had hoarded $23 billion a week ago, according to EPFR data. The signal of volatility amplitude also reinforces the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that stimulated buying in November fell back this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to an indicator from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., casting doubt on the Fed's ability to pivot accommodative policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike to around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We hardly see the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960343825,"gmtCreate":1668082789268,"gmtModify":1676538009681,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960343825","repostId":"1117158204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117158204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668079921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117158204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 19:32","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117158204","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMIC's Q3 revenue was US $1.907 billion, net profit was US $470 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Release Third Quarter 2022 Results. The financial report shows that revenue in the third quarter was US $1.907 billion, market expectations were US $1.935 billion, and US $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was US $470 million, market expectations were US $493 million, and US $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, market expectations of $0.06, and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US $742 million, compared with US $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 58.6% compared with US $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was US $1.165 billion, compared to US $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer fields, and the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new U.S. export control regulations, sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% month-on-month, and gross profit margins will be between 30% and 32%. between. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around US $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecaf7b843618667282559909e22a1fb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","BK0214":"IT设备","BK1607":"新IT概念","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117158204","content_text":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.21亿美元；每股收益0.06美元，市场预期0.06美元，去年同期0.04美元。第三季毛利为7.42亿美元，相比2022年第二季为7.5亿美元，相较于2021年第三季的4.68亿美元增长58.6%。第三季的销售成本为11.65亿美元，相较于2022年第二季为11.53亿美元。预计第四季度，受手机、消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美元左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。全年资本支出计画从50亿美元上调为66亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984872046,"gmtCreate":1667611156086,"gmtModify":1676537943759,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984872046","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are pouring cash at the fastest pace since the early days of the pandemic, analysts say the Fed will not pivot for the time being\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Fed will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low; In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of the US mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors rush into cash to avoid safety, the most since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.</p><p>A report by Bank of America citing global data from EPFR noted that $62.1 billion of funds poured into cash-type assets in the week ending Nov. 2. Since the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion has poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the war for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their holdings of U.S. Treasury Bond from the Fed escrow account into cash and transferring them into the overnight Fed reverse repurchase facility.</p><p>In October this year, even Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, who had long criticized cash as rubbish, changed his mind. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I no longer think cash is garbage. With existing interest rates and the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now-neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. companies reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. The unemployment situation in 2023 may be the catalyst for a policy turnaround. An end to the Fed's tightening will require a recession and credit event, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America expects stocks to bottom next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The bull-bear indicator designed by Bank of America remained at an \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh straight week, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, the extreme must be reversed, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that we should pay attention to the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on the market next Tuesday. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory will mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that the Democratic Party could lose its majority in the House, where the party is seeking to maintain its narrow control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985903413,"gmtCreate":1667281951633,"gmtModify":1676537890816,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985903413","repostId":"1159897816","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9980514716,"gmtCreate":1665766587235,"gmtModify":1676537662191,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9980514716","repostId":"1154233788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915168372,"gmtCreate":1664985076497,"gmtModify":1676537539706,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915168372","repostId":"1150343043","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150343043","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664981710,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150343043?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 22:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150343043","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月5日，美股流媒体概念股齐挫，ROKU跌超7%，fuboTV跌近7%，奈飞跌超5%，亚马逊、迪士尼跌超2%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, U.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%, and fuboTV fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50553e4c2176a1b5ac8243a9d219fcee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-05 22:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 5, U.S. streaming media concept stocks all fell, ROKU fell more than 7%, and fuboTV fell nearly 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">Disney</a>Fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50553e4c2176a1b5ac8243a9d219fcee\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","NFLX":"奈飞","FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150343043","content_text":"10月5日，美股流媒体概念股齐挫，ROKU跌超7%，fuboTV跌近7%，奈飞跌超5%，亚马逊、迪士尼跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913220205,"gmtCreate":1663993589108,"gmtModify":1676537377317,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913220205","repostId":"1183052449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183052449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663986686,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183052449?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-24 10:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What should growth investors do as the sell-off in U.S. tech stocks ramps up?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183052449","media":"新浪科技","summary":"美国科技股出现了“本世纪持续时间最长的”上市荒。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, in the past 10 years, stimulated by the flooding monetary policy in the United States, the stock prices of major technology companies have soared steadily. Therefore, this investment method sometimes does bring amazing returns.</p><p>But in the past year, the same investment philosophy has been impacted by rising interest rates, inflation and other factors. With the relaxation of epidemic control, so-called \"epidemic beneficiary stocks\" such as Zoom and Peloton have fallen from the altar. Coupled with the widespread sell-off of technology stocks, many once-famous stocks have caused heavy losses to investors. Against this background, \"defensive stocks\" that have been left out by Wall Street for many years have become the new favorite of investors.</p><p>In addition, the stock market downturn since the beginning of this year has led to the \"longest lasting\" listing shortage of U.S. technology stocks in this century. At present, while some other industries are showing signs of recovery, experts are still cautious about the pace of recovery in technology IPOs (initial public offerings).</p><p>Research by Morgan Stanley's \"Equity Capital Markets\" team shows that as of Wednesday, the U.S. stock market will have no technology IPOs with a scale of more than $50 million for 238 consecutive days, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis and the Internet bubble at the beginning of this century. Record set after the bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeca0b6f48eec2445b16215f01b6aa3c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Photo: \"Sister Wood\" Kathy Wood</p><p>The American investment community is full of mourning. The net value of the global technology equity fund owned by investment company T Rowe Price has shrunk by 45% this year; Chase Coleman's flagship Tiger Global hedge fund was cut in half by the end of July; Ark Innovation, the flagship ETF fund of \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood, has also seen its net value fall by 55% this year. Her Ark Investment Management has shrunk by nearly half the size of assets under management since December.</p><p>The UK market has also been dismal. Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust fell 40% for the year to the end of August, and Polar Capital Technology Trust also fell 22% for the year to the end of July. In the Japanese market, plummeting tech stock valuations and a weaker yen led to a record single-quarter net loss of 3.1 trillion yen ($23 billion) for Son's SoftBank in the second quarter.</p><p>Despite such a stormy reversal, few big-name growth investors have abandoned their established investment methods-some of them believe that such declines have instead created opportunities for cautious buying.</p><p>Growth investors are optimistic by nature. They firmly believe that we are in a once-in-a-lifetime technological wave, and they firmly believe that during this period, a group of outstanding companies will emerge that can lead the future trend and achieve explosive growth. To become successful investors, their task is to identify these businesses.</p><p>\"Some high-quality growth companies seem to be selling off at low prices,\" said Kirsty Gibson, US equity manager at Baillie Gifford. \"It's a rare opportunity to bet long-term on growth investments. I can't say it's comfortable right now, but it's really exciting.\"</p><p>The confidence of \"Sister Wood\" doesn't seem to have been hit at all by this year's losses. \"Innovation solves all problems, and the world faces more problems today than it did two years ago.\" She tweeted on Sept. 8, \"Innovation is the key to achieving real growth!\"</p><p>While growth investors remain optimistic about technological change, many of them have made major adjustments to their investment strategies, focusing more on short-term profits and cash flow, and actively exploring new ways to help tech companies in their early stages weather the downturn.</p><p>David Older, head of equity investment at Carmignac, an asset manager with a scale of € 33. 2 billion, said: \"There is no going back to the past. No matter how high you think interest rates will rise, the rising cost of capital will have a continued negative impact on growth enterprises.\"</p><p><b>Where does the funding come from?</b></p><p>Many prominent growth investors have said that although the macroeconomic environment has made them more cautious in the short term, they still firmly believe that the technological revolution has just begun.</p><p>Some funds have adopted the so-called \"cross-border\" strategy, diversifying their investments into private companies and public companies. Some growth investors emphasize that they usually invest in a business for several years, so they can avoid short-term market fluctuations. Tech stocks are particularly vulnerable to rising interest rates, and their potential future gains are eroded.</p><p>But instead of trying to predict the direction of interest rates, they focused on understanding whether the competitive landscape of the companies they invested in had changed. It is found that the macro environment in which these businesses operate, although changed, has not undermined the long-term potential of many businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b62c7eaf45d76c4d8b66aea0e9a77fbb\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure: Snowflake Computing</p><p>T Rowe Price's investment approach: First imagine the size of a technology company in 3 to 5 years, and then identify companies that can grow by 30% to 40% per year. Five of the top 10 holdings of the company's global tech fund are from the software industry, namely Atlassian, MongoDB, HubSpot, ServiceNow, and Snowflake Computing.</p><p>In Julian Cook, who works as a fund manager at this $1.39 trillion U.S. asset management institution, sees that although rising interest rates will put pressure on the valuations of technology companies, the more important question lies in the performance of these companies on fundamental indicators such as profits, revenue and free cash flow in the next five years of high interest rate environment.</p><p>Some investors are dismissive of unattainable profit promises. \"We have shortened the investment horizon,\" said Ben Rogoff, co-head of Polar Capital's global tech team. Half of the investment trusts he is responsible for are invested in software and semiconductor companies, including Nvidia, TSMC and ASML.</p><p>He said, \"Your (company's) technology may have great market potential and can change the world, but it's hard to be sure now.\"</p><p>Investors are also becoming more and more picky about the profit path of enterprises. Carmignac's Odell agrees, saying that people's return expectations have been shortened from 10 years to two years. \"The market clearly can no longer pay for ethereal growth stories unless they can actually prove profitability and generate cash flow quickly,\" he added.</p><p>Potential growth companies must first resist various pressures such as current supply chain disruptions, inflation, and increasingly tightening financing environments in order to fully realize their long-term potential. As executives re-examine the development model of the industry, investors are also trying to clarify how the companies they invest in will respond to the economic downturn. The most favored are cash-generating companies that have both market share and pricing power and are less vulnerable to shrinking consumer spending-they can't just be \"pandemic beneficiaries\".</p><p>\"More than ever, we need to focus on the resilience and adaptability of these businesses,\" says Gibson of Baillie Gifford. The fund manager's total assets under management fell to £ 231 billion on June 30, down more than a third from the same period last year.</p><p>\"Some companies will grow stronger,\" she added. \"We welcome companies that can'lose fat ', but we will be cautious about those that'lose muscle' because we don't want them to lose long-term growth opportunities.\"</p><p>The sell-off in technology stocks was triggered by macro factors, so it showed no difference. In other words, the market will not screen the cash flow situation, and as long as it is a growth stock, it will be sold off. This creates buying opportunities for investors to selectively increase their holdings of stocks whose stock prices have fallen more than the decline in earnings in their existing positions, or to add new positions.</p><p>Rogoff of Polar Capital said that the valuations of next-generation SaaS (software-as-a-service) companies and established Internet companies are increasingly converging, and the growth potential is greater, which creates a rare opportunity for investors to buy the former.</p><p>Several investors said they were optimistic about defensive stocks in the tech sector, such as semiconductor companies such as ASML and Synopsys, as well as cloud computing and enterprise software companies such as database program developer MongoDB. Enterprise software can help companies reduce costs and increase productivity when faced with an inflationary environment, and such software usually adopts a non-cyclical subscription model.</p><p>They believe that the long-term structural trend is still playing out. \"The digitization of the economy and the migration of workflows to the cloud are still progressing,\" says T Rowe's Julian. He added that some consumer-facing companies made a lot of money during the pandemic, and now it's time to get back to reality.</p><p>Investors bullish on the outlook for growth stocks also say the tech revolution has just hit the tip of the iceberg in global economic sectors such as energy, gene sequencing and synthetic biology.</p><p>Baillie Gifford's U.S. investment team has increased its holdings in software companies such as HashiCorp and Snowflake, as well as education company Duolingo and food delivery platform DoorDash.</p><p><b>The challenge is next year</b></p><p>Although some people think that the sell-off in growth stocks has created great buying points, not everyone will buy mindlessly.</p><p>\"I feel that the next five years of public markets will definitely be valuable. The challenge is next year,\" said Philippe Laffont, founder of Coatue Management in New York, a member of the \"tiger family\" who trained professionally at Julian Robertson's Tiger Management.</p><p>Among growth investors, Lavonte belongs to the more pessimistic faction. In the sharp drop earlier this year, Coatue's hedge funds chose to close their positions. The data shows that the hedge fund's cash position in May exceeded 80%. This decision, along with the strong performance of short positions, helped the company's flagship hedge fund control its net worth decline to 17.6% by the end of August.</p><p>\"It's getting worse, not better,\" Lavonte said. Some investors believe that although some individual stocks do show good value, compared with the end of the Internet bubble burst in 2003 and the end of the financial crisis in 2009, today's market is not cheap. In their view, delusional trying to buy the bottom will only be futile.</p><p>Rogoff of Polar Capital said: \"I think there are some good opportunities. However, although the dynamic price-to-sales ratio of software stocks has dropped from 25 times to 10 times, it is difficult to judge whether it will stop falling at 10 times.\"</p><p>Another factor that makes potential bulls hesitate is that although the public market has repriced, many investors have not written down their shares in private companies. Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust gave a glimpse of the power of such writedowns: the agency revealed that in the first half of this year, it revalued its holdings of 351 private companies, with an average write-down rate of 27.6%.</p><p>After the market correction, private enterprises are less attractive than public market stocks, and increasingly picky venture capitalists are holding more cash in their hands. According to informed sources, in the past year or so, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global has not only failed to make any new private investment, but has significantly reduced its overall stock position through hedge funds and increased the proportion of short positions. Even SoftBank Masayoshi Son went into \"defensive mode\" and kept a lot of cash.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49542dc07c9f42f7da454938ba218a9\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Picture: Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank Group</p><p>\"Because the sell-off is so violent, many of the good opportunities are now coming from the public market.\" Baillie Gifford's Gibson said. \"Our standards for investing in private companies are now higher than before, because the competition for capital is more intense, and your competitors are public market stocks with lower valuations in your portfolio.\"</p><p>When the valuation of technology companies first bubbled and then sold off sharply, it inevitably reminds market observers of the ups and downs of the Internet bubble in the late 1990s. However, investors believe that although these two periods do include a period of irrational prosperity, there are still many differences between them.</p><p>\"As far as the tech sector itself is concerned, it is much more mature now than it was in the late '90s, earnings numbers are much more solid than they were back then, and valuation starting points are fundamentally different,\" says Rogoff of Polar Capital.</p><p><b>Explore new models</b></p><p>In July, when Klarna, the pioneer of the \"buy now, pay later\" model, announced a $800 million financing plan, its valuation shrank from the original $46 billion to $6.7 billion. It stirred up thousands of waves in the venture capital circle. As the technology startup with the highest valuation in Europe, Klarna's sudden drop in valuation has become one of the most obvious signals of the future predicament of the private market in the eyes of many people.</p><p>Some investors are beginning to try other investment models. Coatue is raising $2 billion for Tactical Solutions, a structured equity fund that specializes in borrowing to private companies that are in financial difficulties but don't want to dilute their equity due to low valuation financing. The structured equity they invest in has the dual attributes of debt and equity, and usually includes convertible bonds, preferred shares or debt-weighted certificates.</p><p>\"We need to explore new models with this crisis,\" Lavonte said. \"Structured transactions become an offensive approach for us to provide a solution to founders in a downturn. We want them to continue to expand their businesses, make attractive acquisitions and expand their teams. There are many new funding methods to support founders and avoid being forced to sell their shares.\"</p><p>Atreides Management, founded by former fund manager Gavin Baker of Fidelity Investments, is also preparing an opportunistic venture capital fund. According to public information released in July, the fund will take advantage of the current downturn in the risk market to participate in structured equity transactions, and will also help privatize listed companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40afa56c5d6daa11641a2984e5e43675\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Picture: \"Stock God\" Warren Buffett</p><p>\"'I'm greedy when others are afraid, and I'm afraid when others are greedy.' This is easier said than done.\" Baker quoted Warren Buffett as saying: \"We believe that the next nine to 12 months will be one of the best periods in history to stay greedy, and we must increase capital allocation in risky areas.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What should growth investors do as the sell-off in U.S. tech stocks ramps up?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat should growth investors do as the sell-off in U.S. tech stocks ramps up?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-24 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, in the past 10 years, stimulated by the flooding monetary policy in the United States, the stock prices of major technology companies have soared steadily. Therefore, this investment method sometimes does bring amazing returns.</p><p>But in the past year, the same investment philosophy has been impacted by rising interest rates, inflation and other factors. With the relaxation of epidemic control, so-called \"epidemic beneficiary stocks\" such as Zoom and Peloton have fallen from the altar. Coupled with the widespread sell-off of technology stocks, many once-famous stocks have caused heavy losses to investors. Against this background, \"defensive stocks\" that have been left out by Wall Street for many years have become the new favorite of investors.</p><p>In addition, the stock market downturn since the beginning of this year has led to the \"longest lasting\" listing shortage of U.S. technology stocks in this century. At present, while some other industries are showing signs of recovery, experts are still cautious about the pace of recovery in technology IPOs (initial public offerings).</p><p>Research by Morgan Stanley's \"Equity Capital Markets\" team shows that as of Wednesday, the U.S. stock market will have no technology IPOs with a scale of more than $50 million for 238 consecutive days, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis and the Internet bubble at the beginning of this century. Record set after the bursting.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeca0b6f48eec2445b16215f01b6aa3c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Photo: \"Sister Wood\" Kathy Wood</p><p>The American investment community is full of mourning. The net value of the global technology equity fund owned by investment company T Rowe Price has shrunk by 45% this year; Chase Coleman's flagship Tiger Global hedge fund was cut in half by the end of July; Ark Innovation, the flagship ETF fund of \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood, has also seen its net value fall by 55% this year. Her Ark Investment Management has shrunk by nearly half the size of assets under management since December.</p><p>The UK market has also been dismal. Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust fell 40% for the year to the end of August, and Polar Capital Technology Trust also fell 22% for the year to the end of July. In the Japanese market, plummeting tech stock valuations and a weaker yen led to a record single-quarter net loss of 3.1 trillion yen ($23 billion) for Son's SoftBank in the second quarter.</p><p>Despite such a stormy reversal, few big-name growth investors have abandoned their established investment methods-some of them believe that such declines have instead created opportunities for cautious buying.</p><p>Growth investors are optimistic by nature. They firmly believe that we are in a once-in-a-lifetime technological wave, and they firmly believe that during this period, a group of outstanding companies will emerge that can lead the future trend and achieve explosive growth. To become successful investors, their task is to identify these businesses.</p><p>\"Some high-quality growth companies seem to be selling off at low prices,\" said Kirsty Gibson, US equity manager at Baillie Gifford. \"It's a rare opportunity to bet long-term on growth investments. I can't say it's comfortable right now, but it's really exciting.\"</p><p>The confidence of \"Sister Wood\" doesn't seem to have been hit at all by this year's losses. \"Innovation solves all problems, and the world faces more problems today than it did two years ago.\" She tweeted on Sept. 8, \"Innovation is the key to achieving real growth!\"</p><p>While growth investors remain optimistic about technological change, many of them have made major adjustments to their investment strategies, focusing more on short-term profits and cash flow, and actively exploring new ways to help tech companies in their early stages weather the downturn.</p><p>David Older, head of equity investment at Carmignac, an asset manager with a scale of € 33. 2 billion, said: \"There is no going back to the past. No matter how high you think interest rates will rise, the rising cost of capital will have a continued negative impact on growth enterprises.\"</p><p><b>Where does the funding come from?</b></p><p>Many prominent growth investors have said that although the macroeconomic environment has made them more cautious in the short term, they still firmly believe that the technological revolution has just begun.</p><p>Some funds have adopted the so-called \"cross-border\" strategy, diversifying their investments into private companies and public companies. Some growth investors emphasize that they usually invest in a business for several years, so they can avoid short-term market fluctuations. Tech stocks are particularly vulnerable to rising interest rates, and their potential future gains are eroded.</p><p>But instead of trying to predict the direction of interest rates, they focused on understanding whether the competitive landscape of the companies they invested in had changed. It is found that the macro environment in which these businesses operate, although changed, has not undermined the long-term potential of many businesses.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b62c7eaf45d76c4d8b66aea0e9a77fbb\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Figure: Snowflake Computing</p><p>T Rowe Price's investment approach: First imagine the size of a technology company in 3 to 5 years, and then identify companies that can grow by 30% to 40% per year. Five of the top 10 holdings of the company's global tech fund are from the software industry, namely Atlassian, MongoDB, HubSpot, ServiceNow, and Snowflake Computing.</p><p>In Julian Cook, who works as a fund manager at this $1.39 trillion U.S. asset management institution, sees that although rising interest rates will put pressure on the valuations of technology companies, the more important question lies in the performance of these companies on fundamental indicators such as profits, revenue and free cash flow in the next five years of high interest rate environment.</p><p>Some investors are dismissive of unattainable profit promises. \"We have shortened the investment horizon,\" said Ben Rogoff, co-head of Polar Capital's global tech team. Half of the investment trusts he is responsible for are invested in software and semiconductor companies, including Nvidia, TSMC and ASML.</p><p>He said, \"Your (company's) technology may have great market potential and can change the world, but it's hard to be sure now.\"</p><p>Investors are also becoming more and more picky about the profit path of enterprises. Carmignac's Odell agrees, saying that people's return expectations have been shortened from 10 years to two years. \"The market clearly can no longer pay for ethereal growth stories unless they can actually prove profitability and generate cash flow quickly,\" he added.</p><p>Potential growth companies must first resist various pressures such as current supply chain disruptions, inflation, and increasingly tightening financing environments in order to fully realize their long-term potential. As executives re-examine the development model of the industry, investors are also trying to clarify how the companies they invest in will respond to the economic downturn. The most favored are cash-generating companies that have both market share and pricing power and are less vulnerable to shrinking consumer spending-they can't just be \"pandemic beneficiaries\".</p><p>\"More than ever, we need to focus on the resilience and adaptability of these businesses,\" says Gibson of Baillie Gifford. The fund manager's total assets under management fell to £ 231 billion on June 30, down more than a third from the same period last year.</p><p>\"Some companies will grow stronger,\" she added. \"We welcome companies that can'lose fat ', but we will be cautious about those that'lose muscle' because we don't want them to lose long-term growth opportunities.\"</p><p>The sell-off in technology stocks was triggered by macro factors, so it showed no difference. In other words, the market will not screen the cash flow situation, and as long as it is a growth stock, it will be sold off. This creates buying opportunities for investors to selectively increase their holdings of stocks whose stock prices have fallen more than the decline in earnings in their existing positions, or to add new positions.</p><p>Rogoff of Polar Capital said that the valuations of next-generation SaaS (software-as-a-service) companies and established Internet companies are increasingly converging, and the growth potential is greater, which creates a rare opportunity for investors to buy the former.</p><p>Several investors said they were optimistic about defensive stocks in the tech sector, such as semiconductor companies such as ASML and Synopsys, as well as cloud computing and enterprise software companies such as database program developer MongoDB. Enterprise software can help companies reduce costs and increase productivity when faced with an inflationary environment, and such software usually adopts a non-cyclical subscription model.</p><p>They believe that the long-term structural trend is still playing out. \"The digitization of the economy and the migration of workflows to the cloud are still progressing,\" says T Rowe's Julian. He added that some consumer-facing companies made a lot of money during the pandemic, and now it's time to get back to reality.</p><p>Investors bullish on the outlook for growth stocks also say the tech revolution has just hit the tip of the iceberg in global economic sectors such as energy, gene sequencing and synthetic biology.</p><p>Baillie Gifford's U.S. investment team has increased its holdings in software companies such as HashiCorp and Snowflake, as well as education company Duolingo and food delivery platform DoorDash.</p><p><b>The challenge is next year</b></p><p>Although some people think that the sell-off in growth stocks has created great buying points, not everyone will buy mindlessly.</p><p>\"I feel that the next five years of public markets will definitely be valuable. The challenge is next year,\" said Philippe Laffont, founder of Coatue Management in New York, a member of the \"tiger family\" who trained professionally at Julian Robertson's Tiger Management.</p><p>Among growth investors, Lavonte belongs to the more pessimistic faction. In the sharp drop earlier this year, Coatue's hedge funds chose to close their positions. The data shows that the hedge fund's cash position in May exceeded 80%. This decision, along with the strong performance of short positions, helped the company's flagship hedge fund control its net worth decline to 17.6% by the end of August.</p><p>\"It's getting worse, not better,\" Lavonte said. Some investors believe that although some individual stocks do show good value, compared with the end of the Internet bubble burst in 2003 and the end of the financial crisis in 2009, today's market is not cheap. In their view, delusional trying to buy the bottom will only be futile.</p><p>Rogoff of Polar Capital said: \"I think there are some good opportunities. However, although the dynamic price-to-sales ratio of software stocks has dropped from 25 times to 10 times, it is difficult to judge whether it will stop falling at 10 times.\"</p><p>Another factor that makes potential bulls hesitate is that although the public market has repriced, many investors have not written down their shares in private companies. Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust gave a glimpse of the power of such writedowns: the agency revealed that in the first half of this year, it revalued its holdings of 351 private companies, with an average write-down rate of 27.6%.</p><p>After the market correction, private enterprises are less attractive than public market stocks, and increasingly picky venture capitalists are holding more cash in their hands. According to informed sources, in the past year or so, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global has not only failed to make any new private investment, but has significantly reduced its overall stock position through hedge funds and increased the proportion of short positions. Even SoftBank Masayoshi Son went into \"defensive mode\" and kept a lot of cash.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a49542dc07c9f42f7da454938ba218a9\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Picture: Masayoshi Son, founder of SoftBank Group</p><p>\"Because the sell-off is so violent, many of the good opportunities are now coming from the public market.\" Baillie Gifford's Gibson said. \"Our standards for investing in private companies are now higher than before, because the competition for capital is more intense, and your competitors are public market stocks with lower valuations in your portfolio.\"</p><p>When the valuation of technology companies first bubbled and then sold off sharply, it inevitably reminds market observers of the ups and downs of the Internet bubble in the late 1990s. However, investors believe that although these two periods do include a period of irrational prosperity, there are still many differences between them.</p><p>\"As far as the tech sector itself is concerned, it is much more mature now than it was in the late '90s, earnings numbers are much more solid than they were back then, and valuation starting points are fundamentally different,\" says Rogoff of Polar Capital.</p><p><b>Explore new models</b></p><p>In July, when Klarna, the pioneer of the \"buy now, pay later\" model, announced a $800 million financing plan, its valuation shrank from the original $46 billion to $6.7 billion. It stirred up thousands of waves in the venture capital circle. As the technology startup with the highest valuation in Europe, Klarna's sudden drop in valuation has become one of the most obvious signals of the future predicament of the private market in the eyes of many people.</p><p>Some investors are beginning to try other investment models. Coatue is raising $2 billion for Tactical Solutions, a structured equity fund that specializes in borrowing to private companies that are in financial difficulties but don't want to dilute their equity due to low valuation financing. The structured equity they invest in has the dual attributes of debt and equity, and usually includes convertible bonds, preferred shares or debt-weighted certificates.</p><p>\"We need to explore new models with this crisis,\" Lavonte said. \"Structured transactions become an offensive approach for us to provide a solution to founders in a downturn. We want them to continue to expand their businesses, make attractive acquisitions and expand their teams. There are many new funding methods to support founders and avoid being forced to sell their shares.\"</p><p>Atreides Management, founded by former fund manager Gavin Baker of Fidelity Investments, is also preparing an opportunistic venture capital fund. According to public information released in July, the fund will take advantage of the current downturn in the risk market to participate in structured equity transactions, and will also help privatize listed companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40afa56c5d6daa11641a2984e5e43675\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Picture: \"Stock God\" Warren Buffett</p><p>\"'I'm greedy when others are afraid, and I'm afraid when others are greedy.' This is easier said than done.\" Baker quoted Warren Buffett as saying: \"We believe that the next nine to 12 months will be one of the best periods in history to stay greedy, and we must increase capital allocation in risky areas.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2022-09-24/doc-imqmmtha8438771.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc7d71ae81224e45cc919fafbbea90d","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2022-09-24/doc-imqmmtha8438771.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183052449","content_text":"据报道，过去10年，在美国大水漫灌的货币政策刺激下，各大科技公司股价节节飙升，因此，这种投资方式有时的确会带来惊人回报。但过去一年间，同样的投资理念却因为利率上行、通货膨胀等因素遭受冲击。随着疫情管控放松，Zoom和Peloton等所谓的“疫情受益股”纷纷跌落神坛，再加上科技股也遭到大范围抛售，许多曾经风光一时的股票都令投资者损失惨重。在这样的背景下，多年以来被华尔街冷落的“防御型股票”成为投资者的新宠。此外，今年年初以来的股市低迷，已导致美国科技股出现了“本世纪持续时间最长的”上市荒。目前，虽然其他一些行业出现了复苏的迹象，但专家们仍对科技IPO（首次公开招股）的复苏步伐持谨慎态度。摩根士丹利旗下“股票资本市场”团队的研究显示，截至本周三，美国股市将连续238天没有出现规模超过5000万美元的科技IPO，超过了2008年金融危机，以及本世纪初互联网泡沫破灭后创下的纪录。图：“木头姐”凯西•伍德美国投资界哀鸿遍野。投资公司T Rowe Price旗下的全球科技股权基金今年以来净值缩水45%；切斯•科尔曼（Chase Coleman）掌舵的老虎环球（Tiger Global）的旗舰对冲基金截至7月底惨遭腰斩；“木头姐”凯西•伍德（Cathie Wood）的旗舰ETF基金Ark Innovation今年以来的净值同样下跌了55%。自12月以来，她的方舟投资管理公司（Ark Investment Management）管理的资产规模缩水近半。英国市场同样表现惨淡。截至8月底，Baillie Gifford的苏格兰抵押投资信托（Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust）年内跌幅达到40%，极地资本技术信托（Polar Capital Technology Trust）截至7月底的年内跌幅也达到22%。在日本市场，科技股估值暴跌和日元走软导致孙正义的软银在第二季度的单季净亏损达到创纪录的3.1万亿日元（230亿美元）。虽然发生了如此疾风骤雨般的逆转，但却很少有大牌成长型投资者放弃既有的投资方式——其中一些人认为，这样的下跌反而创造了谨慎买入的机会。成长型投资者天性乐观。他们坚信我们身处千载难逢的科技浪潮之中，也坚信在此期间定将涌现一批能够引领未来趋势，实现爆发式增长的卓越公司。想要成为成功的投资者，他们的任务就是找出这些企业。“一些优质成长型企业似乎遭到低价甩卖。”Baillie Gifford美国股权投资经理科斯蒂•吉布森（Kirsty Gibson）说，“现在机会难得，可以借机对成长型投资长期下注。虽然不能说现在很舒服，但确实让人很兴奋。”“木头姐”的信心似乎丝毫没有因为今年的亏损而受到打击。“创新可以解决所有问题，当今世界面临比两年前更多的问题。”她在9月8日发推文说，“创新是实现真正增长的关键！”尽管成长型投资者依然对技术变革保持乐观，但他们中的许多人对投资策略做出重大调整，更加关注短期利润和现金流，并积极探寻新方法，帮助尚处于发展初期的科技公司度过低迷。大卫•奥德尔（David Older）在规模达332亿欧元的资产管理公司Carmignac担任股权投资主管，他表示：“已经回不到过去了。无论你认为利率会涨到多高，资金成本的上涨都会对成长型企业产生持续的负面影响。”资金从何而来？许多著名成长型投资者都表示，尽管宏观经济环境让他们在短期内更加谨慎，但他们依然坚信科技革命才刚刚开始。一些基金采用了所谓的“跨界”策略，把投资分散到私有公司和上市公司两大领域。一些成长型投资者强调，他们投资一家企业通常会持续数年，所以能避开短期的市场波动。科技股尤其容易受到利率上升的影响，其未来的潜在收益会被削弱。但他们并没有试图预测利率走向，而是集中精力了解所投公司所处的竞争格局是否发生变化。结果发现，这些企业所处的宏观环境虽然有所改变，但没有破坏许多企业的长期潜力。图：Snowflake ComputingT Rowe Price的投资方式：先想象一家科技公司在3至5年后的规模，然后找出能每年增长30%至40%的公司。该公司全球科技基金的10大持仓股中有5个来自软件行业，分别是Atlassian、MongoDB、HubSpot、ServiceNow和Snowflake Computing。朱利安•库克（Julian Cook）在这家体量1.39万亿美元的美国资产管理机构担任基金经理，在他看来，虽然利率上涨会令科技公司的估值承压，但更重要的问题在于未来5年的高利率环境下，这些企业在利润、营收和自由现金流等基本面指标上的表现。有的投资者对遥不可及的盈利承诺不屑一顾。“我们缩短了投资期限。”极地资本全球科技团队联席主管本•罗格夫（Ben Rogoff）说。他负责的投资信托有一半投向了软件和半导体企业，包括英伟达、台积电和阿斯麦（ASML）。他表示，“你（公司）的技术或许市场潜力很大，或许能改变世界，但现在很难确信。”投资者对企业的盈利路径也越来越挑剔。Carmignac的奥德尔就认同这一观点，他说，大家的回报预期已经从10年缩短到2年。“市场显然不能再为虚无缥缈的成长故事买单，除非他们真的能证明盈利能力，并快速创造现金流。”他补充道。潜在的成长型企业首先要抗住当下供应链中断、通货膨胀、日益收紧的融资环境等各种压力，才能充分发挥长期潜力。企业高管重新审视行业发展模式之际，投资者也在努力明确所投公司将如何应对经济下滑。最受青睐的是既拥有市场份额和定价权，又不太容易受消费者支出缩减影响的现金产出型企业——他们不能仅仅是“疫情受益股”。“我们比以往任何时候都更需要关注这些企业的韧性和适应能力。”Baillie Gifford的吉布森说。这位基金经理管理的资产总额在6月30日下降至2310亿英镑，较去年同期减少逾三分之一。“有些企业会愈发强大。”她补充道，“我们欢迎能‘减脂’的企业，但对于那些‘减肌肉’的企业，我们却会保持谨慎，因为我们不希望他们丧失长期发展机会。”此次科技股抛售潮由宏观因素引发，因而显示出无差别性。换言之，市场不会对现金流状况加以甄别，只要是成长股，都会遭到一股脑的抛售。这就给投资者创造了买入机会，既可以在现有持仓中，有选择地增持股价下跌超过盈利下降幅度的股票，也可以增加新的持仓。极地资本的罗格夫表示，下一代SaaS（软件即服务）公司与老牌互联网公司之间的估值日渐趋同，而增长潜力更大，这就为投资者创造了买入前者的难得机会。多位投资者表示，他们对科技板块中的防御性股票持乐观态度，比如阿斯麦和Synopsys等半导体公司以及云计算和企业软件公司（比如数据库程序开发商MongoDB）。当面对通胀环境时，企业软件可以帮助公司降低成本和提高生产率，而且这类软件通常都采用非周期性的订阅模式。他们认为，长期的结构化趋势依然在上演。“经济数字化和工作流程向云端迁移的进程仍在推进。”T Rowe的朱利安说。他补充道，一些面向消费者的公司在疫情期间赚得盆满钵满，现在该回归现实了。看好成长股前景的投资者还表示，科技革命才刚刚触及了能源、基因测序和合成生物学等全球经济领域的冰山一角。Baillie Gifford的美国投资团队增持了HashiCorp和Snowflake等软件公司，以及教育公司多邻国（Duolingo）和外卖平台DoorDash。挑战在明年尽管有人认为成长股的抛售潮创造了绝佳买点，但并非所有人都会无脑买入。“我感觉公开市场未来五年肯定有价值。挑战在明年。”纽约Coatue Management创始人菲利普•拉冯特（Philippe Laffont）说，他是“老虎系”的一员，曾经在朱利安•罗伯森（Julian Robertson）的老虎基金（Tiger Management）接受过专业训练。在成长型投资者中，拉冯特属于比较悲观的一派。在今年早些时候的大跌中，Coatue旗下的对冲基金选择平仓应对。数据显示，该对冲基金5月的现金仓位超过80%。这项决定以及空头仓位的强劲表现，帮助该公司的旗舰对冲基金将截至8月底的净值跌幅控制在17.6%。拉冯特说：“情况越来越糟，不是越来越好。” 还有投资者认为，尽管有些个股的确显现出不俗的价值，但与2003年互联网泡沫破裂尾声以及2009年金融危机结束后相比，如今的市场已算不上便宜。在他们看来，妄想抄底只会徒劳无功。极地资本的罗格夫表示：“我认为确实有些好机会。不过，虽然软件股的动态市销率从25倍跌到了10倍，但很难判断是否会在10倍止跌。”令潜在的多头踌躇不前的另外一项因素在于，尽管公开市场已重新定价，但许多投资者却尚未减记所持私有公司股票。Baillie Gifford的苏格兰抵押投资信托让外界得以一窥这种减记的威力：该机构透露，在今年上半年，他们重估了所持的351家私有公司，平均减记幅度达27.6%。在市场回调后，私有企业相较于公开市场的股票已经没有那么有吸引力了，而越发挑剔的风险投资家也把更多现金攥在手中。知情人士透露，最近一年多，切斯•科尔曼的老虎环球不仅没有进行过任何一笔新的私有投资，反而通过对冲基金大幅降低整体的股票头寸，还增加了空头头寸的比重。就连软银孙正义都进入了“防御模式”，保留了大量现金。图：软银集团创始人孙正义“因为抛售潮太猛烈了，所以现在许多好机会都来自公开市场。”Baillie Gifford的吉布森说，“我们现在投资私有公司的标准比以前提高了，因为资本争夺更加激烈，你的竞争对手是投资组合中估值更低迷的公开市场股票。”当科技公司先是估值泡沫化，又遭大幅抛售，难免令市场观察人员想起上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫的沉浮过往。但投资者认为，虽然这两个时期确实都包含一段非理性繁荣阶段，但二者还是有很多不同点。“就科技行业自身而言，现在比90年代末要成熟得多，盈利数据比当时扎实得多，估值起点也有根本性差异。”极地资本的罗格夫说。探索新模式7月，当“先买后付”模式的开拓者Klarna宣布8亿美元融资计划时，其估值从原先的460亿美元缩水到67亿美元。在创投圈激起千层浪。作为曾经欧洲估值最高的科技创企，Klarna的估值骤降成为许多人眼中私有市场未来困境最显著的信号之一。一些投资者开始尝试其它投资模式。Coatue正为采用结构化股权策略的Tactical Solutions基金融资20亿美元，该基金专门向陷入资金困境但又不想因为低估值融资而稀释股权的私企提供借款。他们所投资的结构化股权兼具债权和股权的双重属性，通常包含可转债、优先股或债务加权证。“我们需要借助这次危机探索新模式。”拉冯特说，“结构化交易成为我们的一种进攻方式，可以在经济低迷时向创始人提供一种解决方案。我们希望他们能继续扩大业务，进行有吸引力的收购，并且扩张团队。可以通过许多新的融资方式来支持创始人，避免他们被迫甩卖股权。”由富达投资前基金经理嘉文•贝克（Gavin Baker）创办的Atreides Management也在筹备一个机会主义风险投资基金。根据7月发布的公开资料，该基金将利用当前风险市场的低迷现状参与结构化股权交易，还会帮助上市公司私有化。图：“股神”沃伦•巴菲特“‘别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。’这句话说起来容易，做起来难。”贝克引用“股神”沃伦•巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的名言，说：“我们相信，未来9至12个月将成史上最适合保持贪婪的时期之一，一定要在风险领域加大资金配置。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936466963,"gmtCreate":1662806312552,"gmtModify":1676537144328,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936466963","repostId":"1131057403","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131057403","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662764868,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131057403?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-10 07:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131057403","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett continues to sweep Occidental Petroleum, and his shareholding ratio has exceeded a quarter\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-10 07:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to a regulatory filing released on Friday, September 9, Buffett's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Bought More<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The company's shares, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more shares of Occidental Petroleum, increasing its holdings of outstanding shares to 26.8%, according to a regulatory filing released on Friday, Sept. 9.</p><p>Last month, Berkshire held a 20.2% stake in Occidental.</p><p>Although oil prices have fallen recently, they once hit a 14-year high. As of Friday's close, Occidental Petroleum's share price has risen by more than 110% this year. Occidental Petroleum's shares closed up 1.58% at $65.61 on Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fe8fbc1c7ec08f303ce37ef52afec92\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Buffett's increasing stake in Occidental Petroleum has sparked speculation that Buffett may consider bidding for the entire company. Some media reported last month, citing people familiar with the matter, that Buffett would not bid even after receiving regulatory approval to buy a 50% stake in the oil company.</p><p>Why does Buffett favor Occidental Petroleum?</p><p>First, inflation appeared to be the megatrend in the first half of the 2020s, and crude oil is one of the best natural hedges against inflation right now. Geopolitical conflicts and a lack of investment in new oil fields over the past five years have hit crude oil supplies, causing oil production conditions for everything from OPEC to U.S. shale oil to stagnate. Meanwhile, market demand for fossil fuels has been strong due to factors such as the pandemic, despite governments' push to shift to clean energy. Therefore, while with the transition from utilities to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">Solar energy</a>And other investments in the energy sector, Buffett claims to be a realist in the debate around fossil fuels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","OXY":"西方石油","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670025","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131057403","content_text":"据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。据9月9日周五公布的一份监管文件显示，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司购买了更多西方石油公司的股票，将其持有的已发行股票比例增至26.8%。上个月，伯克希尔哈撒韦持有西方石油20.2%的股份。尽管最近油价有所回落，但此前一度触及十四年高位，截至周五收盘，今年以来西方石油股价已经累计上涨了超过110%。西方石油的股价周五收涨1.58%，报65.61美元。巴菲特对西方石油的股权不断增加，引发外界猜测巴菲特可能会考虑竞购整个公司。 有媒体上个月援引知情人士的话报道称，即使在获得监管机构批准购买该石油公司50%的股份后，巴菲特也不会出价。为什么巴菲特青睐西方石油公司呢？首先，在2020年代的上半部分，通货膨胀似乎是大趋势，而原油是目前最好的天然对冲通胀的工具之一。由于地缘冲突以及过去五年缺乏对新油田的投资已经打击了原油的供应，导致从OPEC到美国页岩油的所有石油生产状况都停滞不前。与此同时，尽管各国政府推动转向清洁能源，但由于疫情等因素，市场对化石燃料的需求一直很强劲。因此，虽然随着从公用事业到太阳能等能源领域的投资，巴菲特声称自己是围绕化石燃料辩论的现实主义者。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"OXY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095452323,"gmtCreate":1644977381975,"gmtModify":1676533982570,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095452323","repostId":"1176194374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095011915,"gmtCreate":1644767501254,"gmtModify":1676533959856,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🈷️","listText":"🈷️","text":"🈷️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095011915","repostId":"1123664260","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123664260","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644722073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123664260?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-13 11:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What does it mean that the growth of science and technology begins to appear \"desperate cost-effectiveness\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123664260","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场对于科技成长短期验证的要求越来越苛刻，但研究上，却应该勇于看得更长。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>It is suggested that more energy should be devoted to preparing for middle-level opportunities. In the process of adjustment, the market has increasingly demanding requirements for short-term verification of technological growth, but in terms of research, we should have the courage to look longer. The rebound after the Spring Festival is realized. What rises first is steady growth. The growth of science and technology continues to adjust. Differentiation is very extreme. Judging from the quantitative indicators we track,<b>The technology growth sector has begun to show \"desperate cost-effectiveness\" (short-term high cost-effectiveness): the profit-making effect of the GEM relative to the CSI 300 hovers at a low level;</b>The diffusion index of profit-making effect of national defense, electrical equipment and electronics has been lower than 10%, which is in a historically extremely low value area. For most of the time in 2020-21, Prosperity Technology is far away from the short-term cost-effective area, and the profit-making effect has shrunk effectively. Therefore, there must be a clear reason why prosperity technology can be adjusted to the current state. We focus on summarizing three points:</p><p>Figure 1: The profit-making effect of GEM relative to CSI 300 hovers at a low level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17c8730cb0ec609c1c3188f5551dbfa\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2: The profit-making effect diffusion index of national defense and military industry, electrical equipment, and electronics has fallen below 10%, which is in the historically extremely low value area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230a45b2dcac66a1f244aa33bc66dff7\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(1) The Fed seems to be \"only tighter, not the tightest\",</b>At present, it is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will make 6 rate hike in 2022, and the probability of 7 rate hike cannot be ignored. We don't think that such a dense and urgent rhythm of rate hike will really be fulfilled. However, it is an objective fact that there are always tighter expectations in the short term. This week, the 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 2%, putting global high-valued assets under pressure. In this process, fewer and fewer investors dare to bet on sufficient tightening expectations, and the market's understanding of overseas uncertainty has become more objective.</p><p>Figure 3: Federal Funds rate futures imply the Fed's rate hike expectation: 6 rate hike in 2022 has become a high probability, and the probability of 7 rate hike cannot be ignored</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b992fefa95a8d094ad3f01718e8eaf72\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff269abf4ad0df525b7ce479ef5b1c4\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 4: The recent rise in U.S. bond yields is mainly due to the contribution of real interest rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78700f0a52e0c7e24d4bdfd0587a65e7\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(2)<b>Prosperity Technology's 21Q4 public offering position concentration has hit the critical value + new fund issuance has a good start but failed</b>, the market returns to the stock game + when the logic of steady growth and low valuation has not yet been destroyed, the style squeeze is still there. It is bound to be a painful process to digest the contradiction of the microstructure of prosperity science and technology.</p><p>(3)<b>The expectation of the first quarterly report of prosperity technology in February has not yet been effectively formed.</b>Computers and media, the market attention is high, but the certainty of performance is low, and there is no clear clue of improvement at the industry level. In the national defense and military industry, the verification of annual reports has been disturbed, which objectively hinders the formation of effective quarterly report expectations. For new energy vehicles and new energy, the supply release and prosperity differentiation are unanimously expected, but the specific differentiation pattern has not yet formed a consensus expectation. At the same time, when the entire industry chain is greatly overweighted, the differentiation of the economy means that some positions lack fundamental support in the short to medium term and need to be adjusted or lightened, which will suppress the short to medium term performance of the entire sector.</p><p><b>After clarifying the causes, how to look forward to it?</b>Looking at the short term, the price-performance ratio of technological growth has improved significantly, and the oversold rebound does not need to solve all problems, and may appear at a \"very game time\". But if the medium-term problems are not resolved, it may just be a weak rebound. With the occurrence of oversold rebound, the market enters the bottoming stage from the adjustment stage. Looking at the medium term, a mid-level rebound in technology stocks may need to meet two conditions: 1) The Fed's tightening is fulfilled, and the deductive boundary of tightening expectations is clear. 2) There are clear clues to the differentiation of technological growth and prosperity, and structural opportunities are the starting point for an effective rebound.</p><p><b>With the outlook, how to deal with it?</b>Oversold rebounds in technological growth can occur at any time, but it is indeed difficult to participate. For investors who have changed their positions to stabilize growth and low valuations, they may not need to significantly adjust their positions back to technology in the short term. For investors who stick to their technology positions, it is indeed not a good time to change positions and stabilize growth in the short term. The logic of steady growth has not yet broken through the category of \"restless logic\". There is still an opportunity before March, but it cannot be extrapolated further for the time being. Under such circumstances, steady growth, low valuation, and pro-cyclical investment may still be very unfriendly to latecomers. Considering the impact cost, changing positions immediately may not be profitable in the end. At present, the market may gradually enter a stalemate period, and the stage of rapid adjustment of technological growth may soon pass, but there should still be a bottoming out stage. Historically, prosperity technology has been far away from the cost-effective area most of the time, and once multiple negatives are superimposed and enter the cost-effective area, there is often a passivation period. Historical experience may also apply this time.</p><p><b>In this case, we suggest devoting more energy to preparing for middle-level opportunities. In the process of adjustment, the market has increasingly demanding requirements for short-term verification of technological growth, but in terms of research, we should have the courage to look longer. Which industries' supply and demand pattern and profitability are expected to improve again in 22H2, and which industries are poor in 22 years and better in 23 years? These issues are all forward-looking. Thinking clearly about these issues will help to choose the right structure at the stage when risk appetite recovers and the market rises flexibly. This may be the winner in 2022.</b></p><p><b>Investment in the steady growth sector will be carried out as originally planned</b></p><p>Regarding the discussion of the steady growth sector, we also share three thoughts:</p><p>(1) At present, the most optimistic expectation for the steady growth sector is actually that it is not easy to improve the real estate, more efforts should be made to ease credit, and more support should be provided for infrastructure. In the first quarter, the policy statement and the verification of social financing credit are relatively guaranteed. This is essentially a \"restless logic\". This is the basis for the market to rebound after the Spring Festival and the steady growth sector to rise first.</p><p>As for the relationship between the verification of social financing credit in January and the market of steady growth sector, our thinking may be different from the mainstream voice of the market: the total amount of social financing credit in January was strong + structurally flawed, pointing to the effect of steady growth, but the effect is not enough, and the policy still needs to continue to exert its strength. The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report released on Friday also pointed to the need for persistent efforts to ease credit, which means that there is room for further interpretation of the \"restless logic\" of steady growth.</p><p>(2) The requirements for stable growth expectation and verification should still be stricter. It is not impossible to extrapolate linearly, but it should be carefully evaluated. Because a considerable part of the investors who buy steady growth incrementally come from the exchange of positions by technology and consumer investment managers, and these investors must be stricter on the set exchange conditions. In addition, the short-term change of positions by institutional investors has hurt the profit-making effect of technological growth, which makes the market generally weak and the risk appetite is suppressed. At this time, it is not appropriate to expect too much increase in the steady growth sector.</p><p>(3) The operation suggestion of \"buy expectations, sell cash\" remains unchanged. Once the uncertainty of extrapolated wide credit increases significantly, or the verification of the effect of steady growth begins to be more important than the verification of policy catalysis, the stock price resistance of the steady growth sector may increase significantly.<b>Therefore, the investment in the steady growth sector will be carried out according to the original plan, and only spring agitation will be done. After the two sessions, the importance of clues about the differentiation of consumption and technological prosperity will be significantly increased.</b></p><p>Source of this article: Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy, original title \"The Emergence of\" Desperate Cost-performance Ratio \"in Science and Technology Growth, Causes, Prospects and Responses-Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy Information Quick Review 20220213\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does it mean that the growth of science and technology begins to appear \"desperate cost-effectiveness\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat does it mean that the growth of science and technology begins to appear \"desperate cost-effectiveness\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-13 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>It is suggested that more energy should be devoted to preparing for middle-level opportunities. In the process of adjustment, the market has increasingly demanding requirements for short-term verification of technological growth, but in terms of research, we should have the courage to look longer. The rebound after the Spring Festival is realized. What rises first is steady growth. The growth of science and technology continues to adjust. Differentiation is very extreme. Judging from the quantitative indicators we track,<b>The technology growth sector has begun to show \"desperate cost-effectiveness\" (short-term high cost-effectiveness): the profit-making effect of the GEM relative to the CSI 300 hovers at a low level;</b>The diffusion index of profit-making effect of national defense, electrical equipment and electronics has been lower than 10%, which is in a historically extremely low value area. For most of the time in 2020-21, Prosperity Technology is far away from the short-term cost-effective area, and the profit-making effect has shrunk effectively. Therefore, there must be a clear reason why prosperity technology can be adjusted to the current state. We focus on summarizing three points:</p><p>Figure 1: The profit-making effect of GEM relative to CSI 300 hovers at a low level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17c8730cb0ec609c1c3188f5551dbfa\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 2: The profit-making effect diffusion index of national defense and military industry, electrical equipment, and electronics has fallen below 10%, which is in the historically extremely low value area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230a45b2dcac66a1f244aa33bc66dff7\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>(1) The Fed seems to be \"only tighter, not the tightest\",</b>At present, it is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will make 6 rate hike in 2022, and the probability of 7 rate hike cannot be ignored. We don't think that such a dense and urgent rhythm of rate hike will really be fulfilled. However, it is an objective fact that there are always tighter expectations in the short term. This week, the 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 2%, putting global high-valued assets under pressure. In this process, fewer and fewer investors dare to bet on sufficient tightening expectations, and the market's understanding of overseas uncertainty has become more objective.</p><p>Figure 3: Federal Funds rate futures imply the Fed's rate hike expectation: 6 rate hike in 2022 has become a high probability, and the probability of 7 rate hike cannot be ignored</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b992fefa95a8d094ad3f01718e8eaf72\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ff269abf4ad0df525b7ce479ef5b1c4\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Figure 4: The recent rise in U.S. bond yields is mainly due to the contribution of real interest rates</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78700f0a52e0c7e24d4bdfd0587a65e7\" tg-width=\"489\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(2)<b>Prosperity Technology's 21Q4 public offering position concentration has hit the critical value + new fund issuance has a good start but failed</b>, the market returns to the stock game + when the logic of steady growth and low valuation has not yet been destroyed, the style squeeze is still there. It is bound to be a painful process to digest the contradiction of the microstructure of prosperity science and technology.</p><p>(3)<b>The expectation of the first quarterly report of prosperity technology in February has not yet been effectively formed.</b>Computers and media, the market attention is high, but the certainty of performance is low, and there is no clear clue of improvement at the industry level. In the national defense and military industry, the verification of annual reports has been disturbed, which objectively hinders the formation of effective quarterly report expectations. For new energy vehicles and new energy, the supply release and prosperity differentiation are unanimously expected, but the specific differentiation pattern has not yet formed a consensus expectation. At the same time, when the entire industry chain is greatly overweighted, the differentiation of the economy means that some positions lack fundamental support in the short to medium term and need to be adjusted or lightened, which will suppress the short to medium term performance of the entire sector.</p><p><b>After clarifying the causes, how to look forward to it?</b>Looking at the short term, the price-performance ratio of technological growth has improved significantly, and the oversold rebound does not need to solve all problems, and may appear at a \"very game time\". But if the medium-term problems are not resolved, it may just be a weak rebound. With the occurrence of oversold rebound, the market enters the bottoming stage from the adjustment stage. Looking at the medium term, a mid-level rebound in technology stocks may need to meet two conditions: 1) The Fed's tightening is fulfilled, and the deductive boundary of tightening expectations is clear. 2) There are clear clues to the differentiation of technological growth and prosperity, and structural opportunities are the starting point for an effective rebound.</p><p><b>With the outlook, how to deal with it?</b>Oversold rebounds in technological growth can occur at any time, but it is indeed difficult to participate. For investors who have changed their positions to stabilize growth and low valuations, they may not need to significantly adjust their positions back to technology in the short term. For investors who stick to their technology positions, it is indeed not a good time to change positions and stabilize growth in the short term. The logic of steady growth has not yet broken through the category of \"restless logic\". There is still an opportunity before March, but it cannot be extrapolated further for the time being. Under such circumstances, steady growth, low valuation, and pro-cyclical investment may still be very unfriendly to latecomers. Considering the impact cost, changing positions immediately may not be profitable in the end. At present, the market may gradually enter a stalemate period, and the stage of rapid adjustment of technological growth may soon pass, but there should still be a bottoming out stage. Historically, prosperity technology has been far away from the cost-effective area most of the time, and once multiple negatives are superimposed and enter the cost-effective area, there is often a passivation period. Historical experience may also apply this time.</p><p><b>In this case, we suggest devoting more energy to preparing for middle-level opportunities. In the process of adjustment, the market has increasingly demanding requirements for short-term verification of technological growth, but in terms of research, we should have the courage to look longer. Which industries' supply and demand pattern and profitability are expected to improve again in 22H2, and which industries are poor in 22 years and better in 23 years? These issues are all forward-looking. Thinking clearly about these issues will help to choose the right structure at the stage when risk appetite recovers and the market rises flexibly. This may be the winner in 2022.</b></p><p><b>Investment in the steady growth sector will be carried out as originally planned</b></p><p>Regarding the discussion of the steady growth sector, we also share three thoughts:</p><p>(1) At present, the most optimistic expectation for the steady growth sector is actually that it is not easy to improve the real estate, more efforts should be made to ease credit, and more support should be provided for infrastructure. In the first quarter, the policy statement and the verification of social financing credit are relatively guaranteed. This is essentially a \"restless logic\". This is the basis for the market to rebound after the Spring Festival and the steady growth sector to rise first.</p><p>As for the relationship between the verification of social financing credit in January and the market of steady growth sector, our thinking may be different from the mainstream voice of the market: the total amount of social financing credit in January was strong + structurally flawed, pointing to the effect of steady growth, but the effect is not enough, and the policy still needs to continue to exert its strength. The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report released on Friday also pointed to the need for persistent efforts to ease credit, which means that there is room for further interpretation of the \"restless logic\" of steady growth.</p><p>(2) The requirements for stable growth expectation and verification should still be stricter. It is not impossible to extrapolate linearly, but it should be carefully evaluated. Because a considerable part of the investors who buy steady growth incrementally come from the exchange of positions by technology and consumer investment managers, and these investors must be stricter on the set exchange conditions. In addition, the short-term change of positions by institutional investors has hurt the profit-making effect of technological growth, which makes the market generally weak and the risk appetite is suppressed. At this time, it is not appropriate to expect too much increase in the steady growth sector.</p><p>(3) The operation suggestion of \"buy expectations, sell cash\" remains unchanged. Once the uncertainty of extrapolated wide credit increases significantly, or the verification of the effect of steady growth begins to be more important than the verification of policy catalysis, the stock price resistance of the steady growth sector may increase significantly.<b>Therefore, the investment in the steady growth sector will be carried out according to the original plan, and only spring agitation will be done. After the two sessions, the importance of clues about the differentiation of consumption and technological prosperity will be significantly increased.</b></p><p>Source of this article: Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy, original title \"The Emergence of\" Desperate Cost-performance Ratio \"in Science and Technology Growth, Causes, Prospects and Responses-Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy Information Quick Review 20220213\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651761\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab3e6da33eab070d39ea5ddbb760010","relate_stocks":{"159723":"科技龙头"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651761","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123664260","content_text":"建议把更多精力用在备战中级别机会上。调整过程中，市场对于科技成长短期验证的要求越来越苛刻，但研究上，却应该勇于看得更长。春节后反弹是兑现的，先涨起来的是稳增长，科技成长继续调整，分化是非常极端的。从我们跟踪的量化指标来看，科技成长板块已初现“绝望性价比”(短期高性价比)：创业板相对沪深300的赚钱效应低位徘徊；国防军工、电气设备、电子的赚钱效应扩散指标已低于10%，处于历史极低值区域。景气科技在2020-21大部分时候，都是远离短期高性价比区域的，赚钱效应显有有效收缩。所以，景气科技能调整到当前的状态，一定有明确的成因，我们重点总结三点：图1：创业板相对沪深300的赚钱效应低位徘徊图2：国防军工、电气设备、电子的赚钱效应扩散指标已低于10%，处于历史极低值区域(1) 美联储似乎“只有更紧，没有最紧”，当前美联储2022年加息6次已成大概率，加息7次的概率也已不容忽视。我们并不认为，如此密集急促的加息节奏会真的兑现。但短期总有更紧的预期发酵是客观事实，本周10年期美债收益率上破2%，全球高估值资产承压。在这个过程中，敢于押注紧缩预期已充分的投资者越来越少，市场对海外不确定性的认识也愈发客观。图3：联邦基金利率期货隐含美联储加息预期：2022年加息6次已成大概率，加息7次的概率也已不容忽视图4：近期美债收益率上行，主要来自于实际利率的贡献(2) 景气科技21Q4公募持仓集中度已触及临界值 + 新基金发行开门红落空，市场回归存量博弈 + 稳增长低估值逻辑未到破坏时，风格挤压犹在。景气科技微观结构矛盾消化势必是一个痛苦的过程。(3)2月景气科技一季报预期尚无法有效形成。计算机和传媒，市场关注度高，但业绩确定性偏低，行业层面的改善尚无明确线索。国防军工，年报验证出现扰动，客观上阻碍了有效的一季报预期形成。新能车和新能源，供给释放景气分化是一致预期，但具体分化的格局，目前尚未形成一致预期。同时，在全产业链大幅超配的情况下，景气分化意味着有一部分持仓中短期缺乏基本面支撑，需要调仓或减仓，这会压制整个板块的中短期表现。明确了成因，如何做展望？看短期，科技成长性价比已明显改善，超跌反弹不需要解决所有问题，可能在“很博弈的时点”出现。但如果中期问题不解决，可能只是弱反弹。超跌反弹的发生，行情从调整阶段进入磨底阶段。看中期，科技股中级别反弹可能需要满足两个条件：1) 美联储紧缩兑现，紧缩预期的演绎边界明确。2) 科技成长景气分化的线索明确，结构性机会是有效反弹的起点。有了展望，如何应对？科技成长超跌反弹随时发生，但参与难度确实不小。对于已经换仓稳增长低估值的投资者来说，短期可能不需要把仓位大幅调回科技。对于坚守科技持仓的投资者，短期也确实不是再换仓稳增长的好时机。稳增长上涨的逻辑还未突破“躁动逻辑”的范畴，3月前还有机会，但暂时无法外推更远。这种情况下，稳增长、低估值、顺周期投资，对后来者可能仍是很不友好的。考虑冲击成本，马上换仓最终也未必有利可图。当前，市场可能会逐步进入到一个僵持期，科技成长快速调整阶段可能很快过去，但应该还有一个磨底的阶段。历史上，景气科技大部分时间是远离高性价比区域的，而一旦多重利空叠加，进入了高性价比区域，就往往有一个钝化段。历史经验，这一次可能也适用。这种情况下，我们建议把更多精力用在备战中级别机会上。调整过程中，市场对于科技成长短期验证的要求越来越苛刻，但研究上，却应该勇于看得更长。哪些行业22H2供需格局、盈利能力有望重新改善，哪些行业22年差23年好，这些问题都偏前瞻，想清楚这些问题，有助于在风险偏好恢复、市场上涨有弹性的阶段选对结构，这可能才是2022年的胜负手。稳增长板块投资按照原计划进行关于稳增长板块的讨论，我们也分享三点思考：(1) 当前对于稳增长板块最乐观的预期其实是地产改善不易，宽信用还要再发力，基建还要提供更多支撑，一季度政策表态和社融信贷的验证相对有保障。这本质上是一种“躁动逻辑”。这是春节后市场反弹，稳增长板块先涨起来的基础。而关于1月社融信贷验证和稳增长板块行情的关系，我们的思考可能和市场主流声音有所不同：1月社融信贷总量强 + 结构上有瑕疵，指向稳增长有效果，但效果还不够，政策仍需继续发力。而周五公布的央行四季度货币政策执行报告，也指向宽信用需要再接再厉，这意味着稳增长的“躁动逻辑”还有进一步演绎的空间。(2) 对稳增长预期和验证的要求还是要严格一些,不是不可以线性外推，但要审慎评估。因为，增量买入稳增长的投资者，有相当一部分来自于科技和消费投资经理的换仓，这部分投资者对设定的换仓条件一定是更严格的。另外，机构投资者换仓短期已经伤害了科技成长的赚钱效应，这使得市场总体偏弱势，风险偏好受压制，这种时候也不宜期待稳增长板块有太大涨幅。(3) “买预期，卖兑现”操作建议不变，一旦外推宽信用不确定性明显增加，或者稳增长效果的验证，开始比政策催化的验证更重要，稳增长板块的股价阻力就可能明显增加。所以，稳增长板块投资按照原计划进行，只做春季躁动。两会后，消费和科技景气分化线索的重要性将明显提升。本文来源：申万宏源策略，原文标题《科技成长初现“绝望性价比”，成因、展望与应对——申万宏源策略信息速评20220213》","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159723":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007877417,"gmtCreate":1642850351061,"gmtModify":1676533752713,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007877417","repostId":"2205016851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}