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2021-03-08

all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them

How to handle market declines

2022-10-04

[微笑]

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2022-10-03

[微笑]

Robots, America's richest man's new bet

2022-10-01

[微笑]

BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible

2022-12-01

[微笑]

"Survived"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue

2022-10-17

[微笑]

UK Tax Cuts U-Turn!

2022-03-13

up

Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier in summer time on the 13th in the United States

2021-08-06

?

"North American Alipay" Square continues to pull up, hitting a record high

2021-03-01

looking forward to long term

Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers

2022-12-10

[惊讶]

Fed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored warnings — from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the upset of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be starting to bet that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to maintain above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now turned gloomy, fearing that if the Fed does slow the pace of rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. US services shrank last month; While the labour market remains strong, there has also been some weakness, with recent increases in initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked but remains high enough to keep the Fed on alert, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>\"We're going to move from 'bad data is good news' to 'bad data is bad news' because it's a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect,\" said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view the barrage of depressing economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason to rise from the prospect of easing policy by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-evidenced by the exceeding-expectation growth of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, that's enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three selloffs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred shares on raw material producers. More economy-sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. In all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak earlier in 2022, when the inflation scare raged, bonds tumbled. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% over the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you are buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, it means that economic weakness will also come at some point in the future. So you have to be careful when you make a wish.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a decidedly pessimistic decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close next year at 4,009, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global equity markets at the fastest pace in five months, dumping $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared with $23 billion they hoarded a week earlier, EPFR data shows. Signals of volatility also reinforce the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting conditions such as before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that spurred buying in November retreated this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs Group indicator, casting doubt on the Fed's ability to shift to easy policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers seem determined to bring rate hike to a peak of around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We have seen little of the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored warnings — from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the upset of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be starting to bet that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to maintain above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now turned gloomy, fearing that if the Fed does slow the pace of rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. US services shrank last month; While the labour market remains strong, there has also been some weakness, with recent increases in initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked but remains high enough to keep the Fed on alert, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>\"We're going to move from 'bad data is good news' to 'bad data is bad news' because it's a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect,\" said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view the barrage of depressing economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason to rise from the prospect of easing policy by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-evidenced by the exceeding-expectation growth of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, that's enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three selloffs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred shares on raw material producers. More economy-sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. In all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak earlier in 2022, when the inflation scare raged, bonds tumbled. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% over the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you are buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, it means that economic weakness will also come at some point in the future. So you have to be careful when you make a wish.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a decidedly pessimistic decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close next year at 4,009, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global equity markets at the fastest pace in five months, dumping $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared with $23 billion they hoarded a week earlier, EPFR data shows. Signals of volatility also reinforce the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting conditions such as before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that spurred buying in November retreated this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs Group indicator, casting doubt on the Fed's ability to shift to easy policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers seem determined to bring rate hike to a peak of around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We have seen little of the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920330820,"gmtCreate":1670429138960,"gmtModify":1676538366441,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920330820","repostId":"1166364006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166364006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1670420490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166364006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street Layoffs Accelerate Spread! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166364006","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the American economy is coming, and the \"cold\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday, local time, the media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% of its workforce worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not unfounded. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's chairman and CEO, said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"[reducing] the number of employees is being considered,\" without providing specifics. At the beginning of last month, some media broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly contributed to the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to the shortage of investment banks, which made it change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Instead of suspending layoffs, it carried out large-scale recruitment and tried every means to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic hit in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the continued aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, the risk of recession has increased day by day, and the trading growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>Investment banks recorded 2,273 transactions, down 36% year-on-year, and $289 billion in transactions, down 64% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks are clearly moving more quickly in terms of layoffs. Goldman Sachs started its biggest round of layoffs since the pandemic in September, and Citi, Barclays and others joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America appears to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference on Tuesday:</p><p><b>We do not cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust the number of employees based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000 in the past two years. As of Sept. 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, an increase of about 3,900 from the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>Our total workforce is approximately 215,000,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank is slowing its hiring pace as fewer employees decide to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of the recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Layoffs Accelerate Spread! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Layoffs Accelerate Spread! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 21:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>And Barclays are on the list of investment banks to lay off employees, and Bank of America is slowing down hiring. The winter of the American economy is coming, and the \"cold\" of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming more and more pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday, local time, the media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to cut 2% of its workforce worldwide, involving 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of mass layoffs is not unfounded. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's chairman and CEO, said on the third-quarter earnings call that \"[reducing] the number of employees is being considered,\" without providing specifics. At the beginning of last month, some media broke the news that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates and released water wantonly, which indirectly contributed to the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to the shortage of investment banks, which made it change the practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Instead of suspending layoffs, it carried out large-scale recruitment and tried every means to recruit talents.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year,<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% surge from the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic hit in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the continued aggressive rate hike of the Federal Reserve, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, the risk of recession has increased day by day, and the trading growth of the investment industry has shrunk sharply.</p><p>Ernst & Young said that in the third quarter of this year,<b>Investment banks recorded 2,273 transactions, down 36% year-on-year, and $289 billion in transactions, down 64% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Compared with Morgan Stanley, other investment banks are clearly moving more quickly in terms of layoffs. Goldman Sachs started its biggest round of layoffs since the pandemic in September, and Citi, Barclays and others joined the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Also in the face of the impending recession, Bank of America appears to be more calm.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan sees no need for layoffs.</b>Moynihan told a finance conference on Tuesday:</p><p><b>We do not cut staff, but we have the ability to quickly adjust the number of employees based on staff turnover.</b>Moynihan said that the number of employees at Bank of America has fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000 in the past two years. As of Sept. 30, the bank employed a total of 213,000 employees, an increase of about 3,900 from the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>Our total workforce is approximately 215,000,<b>We need a pullback on that number.</b>Moynihan also said the bank is slowing its hiring pace as fewer employees decide to leave in a bid to rein in headcount ahead of the recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166364006","content_text":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600名员工。大规模裁员的消息并非空穴来风。大摩董事长兼首席执行官James Gorman在三季度财报电话会上表示，“正在考虑（减少）员工人数”，但没有提供具体细节。上月初，也有媒体爆出大摩即将裁员的消息。疫情爆发期间，美联储打开闸门肆意放水，间接造就了投行交易业务的繁荣，同时也导致投行出现人手不足的局面，令其一改在奖金季来临之前裁员的做法，不仅暂停裁员，反而进行大规模招聘，出尽手段招揽人才。大摩也是这样做的。截至今年第三季度末，摩根士丹利的员工人数接近8.2万名，比2020年第一季度疫情在欧美爆发之前飙升了34%。然而今年以来，由于美联储持续激进加息，金融环境快速收紧，衰退风险与日俱增，投行业的交易增长大幅萎缩。安永会计师事务所表示，美国今年第三季度，投行的交易量为2273笔交易，同比下降36%，交易金额为2890亿美元，同比下降64%。与大摩相比，其他投行在裁员方面的行动显然更加迅速。高盛从9月就开启了疫情以来最大的一轮裁员，花旗、巴克莱等本月初都加入了最新裁员企业名单中。同样面对即将到来的衰退，美银的态度似乎更加从容。美银首席执行官Brian Moynihan认为没有裁员的必要。Moynihan周二在一次财务会议上表示：我们不会裁员，但我们有能力根据员工流动情况迅速调整员工数量。Moynihan表示，美银这两年的员工数量在20.5万-21.5万之间浮动。截至9月30日，该行共雇用了21.3万名员工，比去年同期增加约3900人。不过，他补充说：我们的员工总数约为21.5万人，我们需要对这一数字进行回调。Moynihan还表示，由于决定离职的员工越来越少，该行正在放缓招聘速度，以期在经济衰退到来之前控制员工数量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967246370,"gmtCreate":1670340256390,"gmtModify":1676538347883,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967246370","repostId":"1195902581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195902581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1670305215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195902581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Under the pressure of recession, U.S. stock earnings continue to be revised down, and the market wants to rise or needs to be suppressed first","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195902581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 further slowed down, with basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospect of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure and its impact on the follow-up trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trends: Earnings Continue to Slow, Nearing Zero Growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, with finance and technology dragging down more</b></p><p><b>In the third quarter, the earnings of U.S. stocks continued to weaken, approaching zero growth.</b>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS of S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third-quarter EPS was-1% year-over-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding expectations of S&P 500 fell from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the average before the epidemic was 5.4%), and the exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the average before the epidemic was 71%). On the whole, under the high cost and low demand, the further slowdown of US stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 EPS-1% Y/Y, Lift From Last Quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the earnings of the S&P 500 Index exceeded expectations and continued to decline compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, essential consumption and healthcare still exceed expectations; Energy, health care, and essential consumption were the highest in excess of expectations</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are major contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductor and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound of oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was USD 98/barrel vs. USD 73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of EPS in energy, consumer services and transportation reached 152%, 149% and 68% respectively, and the growth rates of automobiles, parts and real estate also ranked in the forefront (40% and 39%). In contrast, finance is under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-over-year in Q3 (vs. -26% in Q2). The Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and the slowdown in loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rate of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors and media entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1ppt), optional consumption (1.2ppt) and transportation (1.1ppt) are the main contributions, and communication services, diversified finance and insurance are obviously dragged down.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services and transportation earnings in the third quarter still led significantly year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate and banks rose, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter of S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2ppt, while communication services, diversified finance and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3 and 1.2ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services were significantly dragged down, reaching-1.2, -1.1, and-0.9ppt respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stocks, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong US dollar and high inflation. The management said that it would control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The performance of META Technology Leader in the third quarter was less than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72% and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the high proportion of overseas revenue from technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), a strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net income as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies say they will slow hiring or lay off workers to control costs, and Intel has proposed tens of billions of dollars in cost-cutting packages.</p><p><b>Chart: List of third-quarter results of U.S. technology leaders</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (Overseas revenue as a percentage of overseas revenue by each company excluding the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market capitalization of U.S. technology leaders (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 performance has a clear negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 retreats from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net income as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year over year, down from the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net income in the third quarter-12.6% year-over-year, down from the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High cost continues to squeeze profit margins, and the bargaining power of industries with low inventory is stronger under the fall of demand</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall as demand cools, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% (non-financial 9.6%) year-on-year, and continued to decline from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors dropped significantly. At the same time, high costs continued to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After excluding the energy segment, the net margin has fallen back to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products and public utilities rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials and media entertainment dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the non-financial income of the S&P 500 index fell back to 9.6% year-on-year, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the revenue growth rate of energy, transportation and raw materials dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the non-financial sector net profit margin of the S&P 500 fell back to 11%, and the non-financial non-energy net profit margin fell back to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Net profit margins of consumer services, household goods and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventory can still rely on price increases to alleviate the pressure on the profit side.</b>For example, due to the high inventory of semiconductors and the weakening demand, the bargaining power is insufficient, the sales revenue has declined significantly, and the interest rate side has also continued to be under pressure (the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; the net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, automobiles and parts, because the inventory is still insufficient, enterprises can still maintain profits by raising prices (the gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, with an average of 12.3% since 2013; the net profit margin rose to 5.9%, with an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year will also gradually erode its profitability.</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue of semiconductor segment with high inventory in the third quarter has declined, and gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the automobile and parts segment, which is still under inventory, continues to rise, and the gross profit margin remains stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Quality of growth: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand declined; Decrease in buybacks; Flat leverage but declining solvency</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of S&P 500 dropped from 24.9% in the second quarter to 24.3% in the third quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and the operating cash flow and cash on hand decreased; Repurchases fell and capital expenditures rose. In terms of leverage, the financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but the solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: ROE of S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Q3 ROE drops back to 22.7% after energy; Net profit margin declined, asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio rose slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of S&P 500 continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs under the continuous tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the non-financial and non-energy cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped from USD 1.51 trillion in the second quarter to USD 1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand of optional consumption, communication services and information technology to total assets all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of non-financial sector continued to decline in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow in energy, utilities and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was USD 296.1 billion, down 32.9% year-on-year and 3.9% quarter-on-quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand fell to $1.59 trillion compared with the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials and healthcare have risen significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of buybacks continues to decline.</b>S&P 500 buybacks dropped from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and its share of market value dropped from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, energy sector buybacks remained strong (as a share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of EPS contribution, repurchase in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 buybacks to recurring EPS growth rose slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The amount of disclosed buybacks continues to fall from the previous quarter, about $196 billion, down to 2.8% of market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: IT accounts for 30%, optional consumption for 16.4%, finance for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate for the lowest percentage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchase contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 buybacks contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage was flat, but solvency declined.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 was basically maintained at 77% in the second quarter, as was the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/ (interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest reserve ratio of individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate dropped in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% of that in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the median interest rate reserve ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but slowdown is difficult to hide</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has fallen.</b>We point out in the Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States that the United States has entered the phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventory has also peaked (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The earnings downward revision (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking phase averaged 7%, with greater impacts from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of S&P 500 continued to rise, and the inventory of raw materials and finished goods fell back</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the earnings downward adjustment (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) in the active destocking phase is around 7% on average, with the impact caused by the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may not hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also risen, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technological hardware and semiconductors more obvious. From the macro indicators, in the third quarter, the investment in non-residential fixed assets in the United States actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. Among them, the investment in intangible assets and facilities fell year-on-year, but the investment in equipment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, rose significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act passed by the Biden administration in August 2022 respectively (Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on growth in the United States, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may be further suppressed (the expectation of enterprise asset expenditure in the next six months surveyed by several local Feds has dropped again since August this year, \"review Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure rose year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial non-energy capital expenditure rose year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The scale of capital expenditure on retail, semiconductor and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded the pre-pandemic level, but there were still gaps in energy, capital goods and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the growth rate of equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, rose significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Expectations of corporate asset spending in the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found<b>semiconductor</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media entertainment</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(weak demand, high inventory and leverage) more pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventories) and<b>Transportation</b>(The demand is acceptable, but the inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and the production capacity is lower) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of inventories such as semiconductors, media entertainment and consumer services is still high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditure on energy, transportation, semiconductors, etc. in the third quarter is still high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Consumer services, tech hardware, transportation, semiconductors and other leverage ratios are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We find more pressure on semiconductors, media entertainment, telecom services; Retail and Transportation Also Worth Watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (Reddish indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock earnings may continue to be revised downward under recession pressure, and it is expected to be-5% in 2023; The market wants to rise or needs to be suppressed first, and the second quarter is under molecular pressure</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing cost of the whole United States has exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage interest rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, the gradual decline may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recession pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of 18 rounds of recession in review since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review Historical Experience of American Recessions\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on investment returns will not be obvious.<b>So as not to cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion amplitude of 3m10s is 150bp). Under this background, the profits of U.S. stocks will continue to fall with a high probability, but the adjustment range will not be very large. At present, we expect that the earnings growth rate in 2023 may decline to-5.5%, which still has downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment-grade bond real yield – real GDP year-on-year growth spread crossed threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread started inverting in early November and is currently inverted ~75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current yield of U.S. high-yield bonds is 8.4%, and the spread with the ROIC of U.S. stocks is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth of 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still inexpensive valuation superimposed on the increased recession pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make US stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 times, which is higher than the historical average of 16.2 times since 1990. The current recession of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, in the second quarter of next year, when the recession pressure increases, it may not be possible to get immediate compensation from the denominator end. After market fluctuations may force loose expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of the Three Stages of the Fed's Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate of 2.7% and ~3.8% corresponding to the low at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of S&P 500 is ~15 times. Our reasonable valuation based on growth and liquidity calculations is also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~3.8% 10-year U.S. bond interest rate correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5~15 times), and the implied support level is 10~15% lower than the current one. However, we expect the year-end point to be ~5% higher than the current one (Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise or need to suppress it first.)</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 12-month dynamic valuation 17.7x, higher than average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 has fallen back to a relatively low 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10~15% lower than the current level. But we expect that year-end point to be ~5% higher than the current one</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (Reddish means higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Under the pressure of recession, U.S. stock earnings continue to be revised down, and the market wants to rise or needs to be suppressed first</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnder the pressure of recession, U.S. stock earnings continue to be revised down, and the market wants to rise or needs to be suppressed first\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-06 13:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The performance of U.S. stocks in the third quarter of 2022 further slowed down, with basically close to zero growth. In this article, we will focus on the analysis of the profit prospect of U.S. stocks under the increasing growth pressure and its impact on the follow-up trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><b>Growth Trends: Earnings Continue to Slow, Nearing Zero Growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, with finance and technology dragging down more</b></p><p><b>In the third quarter, the earnings of U.S. stocks continued to weaken, approaching zero growth.</b>Under the comparable caliber, the EPS of S&P 500 in the third quarter only increased by 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). Nasdaq 100's third-quarter EPS was-1% year-over-year, an improvement from-5.1% in the second quarter. The exceeding expectations of S&P 500 fell from 2.9% in the second quarter to 1.9% (the average before the epidemic was 5.4%), and the exceeding expectations also dropped from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the average before the epidemic was 71%). On the whole, under the high cost and low demand, the further slowdown of US stock earnings is also expected.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the EPS of the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, and continued to fall from 2.9% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 EPS-1% Y/Y, Lift From Last Quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the earnings of the S&P 500 Index exceeded expectations and continued to decline compared with the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still accounted for 70%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in information technology, industry, essential consumption and healthcare still exceed expectations; Energy, health care, and essential consumption were the highest in excess of expectations</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are major contributors; Finance is under pressure, and medicine, semiconductor and the Internet are also slowing down.</b>Driven by the low base and the rebound of oil prices (the average price of Brent oil in the third quarter was USD 98/barrel vs. USD 73/barrel in the third quarter of last year), the year-on-year growth rates of EPS in energy, consumer services and transportation reached 152%, 149% and 68% respectively, and the growth rates of automobiles, parts and real estate also ranked in the forefront (40% and 39%). In contrast, finance is under pressure, with EPS of-19% year-over-year in Q3 (vs. -26% in Q2). The Big Four Banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>) Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, and the slowdown in loan demand combined with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rate of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors and media entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution, energy (4.1ppt), optional consumption (1.2ppt) and transportation (1.1ppt) are the main contributions, and communication services, diversified finance and insurance are obviously dragged down.</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, consumer services and transportation earnings in the third quarter still led significantly year-on-year, while insurance, media and entertainment lagged behind</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the profit growth rate of retail, real estate and banks rose, but raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, etc. fell</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter of S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth rate, energy and optional consumption contributed 4.1 and 1.2ppt, while communication services, diversified finance and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3 and 1.2ppt</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the Nasdaq 100 Index's-1% year-on-year EPS growth rate, healthcare, information technology, and communication services were significantly dragged down, reaching-1.2, -1.1, and-0.9ppt respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, as the leading U.S. stocks, have fallen for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative, mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, strong US dollar and high inflation. The management said that it would control costs by slowing down recruitment and layoffs.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The performance of META Technology Leader in the third quarter was less than expected, and the net profit in the third quarter fell by 89%, 72% and 52% year-on-year respectively. In addition, due to the high proportion of overseas revenue from technology leaders (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%), a strong US dollar also has a negative impact. FAAMNG's net income as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies say they will slow hiring or lay off workers to control costs, and Intel has proposed tens of billions of dollars in cost-cutting packages.</p><p><b>Chart: List of third-quarter results of U.S. technology leaders</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (Overseas revenue as a percentage of overseas revenue by each company excluding the United States as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market capitalization of U.S. technology leaders (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG S&P 500 performance has a clear negative correlation with U.S. financial conditions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 retreats from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net income as a non-financial percentage of the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year over year, down from the average of 20% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG net income in the third quarter-12.6% year-over-year, down from the average of 23% since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Demand and cost analysis: High cost continues to squeeze profit margins, and the bargaining power of industries with low inventory is stronger under the fall of demand</b></p><p><b>Revenue continues to fall as demand cools, and high costs continue to squeeze profit margins.</b>S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% (non-financial 9.6%) year-on-year, and continued to decline from 10.5% (non-financial 11.7%) in the second quarter. In terms of sectors, compared with the second quarter, automobiles and parts rose significantly, but biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors dropped significantly. At the same time, high costs continued to squeeze the net profit margin. The net profit margin of S&P 500 in the third quarter was 11.3%, which continued to fall from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. After excluding the energy segment, the net margin has fallen back to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, consumer services, household personal products and public utilities rose significantly, but software and services, raw materials and media entertainment dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the non-financial income of the S&P 500 index fell back to 9.6% year-on-year, basically consistent with the downward trend of nominal GDP growth</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the second quarter, the revenue growth rate of energy, transportation and raw materials dropped significantly in the third quarter, while capital goods and public utilities rose</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the non-financial sector net profit margin of the S&P 500 fell back to 11%, and the non-financial non-energy net profit margin fell back to 10.3%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Net profit margins of consumer services, household goods and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials fell significantly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Industries with low inventory can still rely on price increases to alleviate the pressure on the profit side.</b>For example, due to the high inventory of semiconductors and the weakening demand, the bargaining power is insufficient, the sales revenue has declined significantly, and the interest rate side has also continued to be under pressure (the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; the net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). On the other hand, automobiles and parts, because the inventory is still insufficient, enterprises can still maintain profits by raising prices (the gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, with an average of 12.3% since 2013; the net profit margin rose to 5.9%, with an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that the weakening of overall demand after the real recession pressure gradually amplifies next year will also gradually erode its profitability.</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue of semiconductor segment with high inventory in the third quarter has declined, and gross profit margin continues to fall</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the sales revenue of the automobile and parts segment, which is still under inventory, continues to rise, and the gross profit margin remains stable</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Quality of growth: bond issuance slowed down, cash flow and cash on hand declined; Decrease in buybacks; Flat leverage but declining solvency</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the non-financial ROE of S&P 500 dropped from 24.9% in the second quarter to 24.3% in the third quarter (dragged down by the decline in net profit margin), and the non-financial non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, the issuance of credit bonds slowed down in the third quarter, and the operating cash flow and cash on hand decreased; Repurchases fell and capital expenditures rose. In terms of leverage, the financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but the solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: ROE of S&P 500 non-financial sector fell back to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Q3 ROE drops back to 22.7% after energy; Net profit margin declined, asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio rose slightly</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, issuance of credit bonds slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.</b>In the past 12 months, the non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow of S&P 500 continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). The rising financing costs under the continuous tightening of the Federal Reserve further slowed down the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-on-year). Affected by this, the non-financial and non-energy cash in hand of S&P 500 dropped from USD 1.51 trillion in the second quarter to USD 1.48 trillion in the third quarter, accounting for 3.8% of total assets in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). In terms of sectors, the proportion of cash in hand of optional consumption, communication services and information technology to total assets all dropped significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow (TTM) of non-financial sector continued to decline in the third quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Operating cash flow in energy, utilities and transportation sectors led year-on-year, but optional consumption and capital goods lagged behind year-on-year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, the issuance of corporate credit bonds in the third quarter was USD 296.1 billion, down 32.9% year-on-year and 3.9% quarter-on-quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, S&P 500 non-financial cash in hand fell to $1.59 trillion compared with the previous quarter, of which information technology and optional consumption still accounted for a relatively high proportion</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash in hand in total assets, but only energy, raw materials and healthcare have risen significantly from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► The scale of buybacks continues to decline.</b>S&P 500 buybacks dropped from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and its share of market value dropped from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, energy sector buybacks remained strong (as a share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), but information technology fell from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of EPS contribution, repurchase in the third quarter contributed 5.6% to the growth rate of recurring EPS, which was significantly higher than 3.3% in the second quarter; The contribution of Nasdaq 100 buybacks to recurring EPS growth rose slightly (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: The amount of disclosed buybacks continues to fall from the previous quarter, about $196 billion, down to 2.8% of market value</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: IT accounts for 30%, optional consumption for 16.4%, finance for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate for the lowest percentage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Repurchase contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 buybacks contributed about 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>► Leverage was flat, but solvency declined.</b>In the third quarter, the overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) of S&P 500 was basically maintained at 77% in the second quarter, as was the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (maintained at 60% in the second quarter); However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/ (interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest reserve ratio of individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). In terms of sectors, the net leverage ratio of energy, healthcare and real estate dropped in the third quarter, but information technology rose.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% of that in the second quarter; The same goes for overall net leverage</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the median interest rate reserve ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Inventory and investment cycle: enter the active destocking cycle; Investment increases but slowdown is difficult to hide</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered the stage of active destocking, and the inventory of finished products has fallen.</b>We point out in the Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States that the United States has entered the phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of S&P 500 continued to rise, but the inventory of raw materials, especially finished products, has gradually declined; The year-on-year growth rate of inventory has also peaked (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The earnings downward revision (12-month dynamic EPS) during the active destocking phase averaged 7%, with greater impacts from the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the total non-financial inventory of S&P 500 continued to rise, and the inventory of raw materials and finished goods fell back</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and fell (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the earnings downward adjustment (12-month dynamic EPS of the S&P 500 index) in the active destocking phase is around 7% on average, with the impact caused by the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic even greater</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditure has risen, but it may not hide the overall slowdown.</b>In the third quarter, the non-financial capital expenditure of S&P 500 was 21% year-on-year, up from 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditure after energy was 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale has also risen, with energy, telecommunications services, public utilities, technological hardware and semiconductors more obvious. From the macro indicators, in the third quarter, the investment in non-residential fixed assets in the United States actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), and the scale was also higher than that in the second quarter. Among them, the investment in intangible assets and facilities fell year-on-year, but the investment in equipment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, rose significantly, which may be related to the promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act passed by the Biden administration in August 2022 respectively (Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections). However, considering the increasing downward pressure on growth in the United States, the willingness of enterprises to spend capital may be further suppressed (the expectation of enterprise asset expenditure in the next six months surveyed by several local Feds has dropped again since August this year, \"review Historical Experience of Previous Recessions in the United States\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure rose year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial non-energy capital expenditure rose year-on-year (16.4% in the third quarter vs. 14.7% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The scale of capital expenditure on retail, semiconductor and telecommunications services in the third quarter exceeded the pre-pandemic level, but there were still gaps in energy, capital goods and consumer services</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the growth rate of equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, rose significantly compared with the second quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Expectations of corporate asset spending in the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research</p><p>Scoring demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found<b>semiconductor</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage),<b>Media entertainment</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity),<b>Telecommunications services</b>(weak demand, high inventory and leverage) more pressure;<b>Retail</b>(weak demand, high inventories) and<b>Transportation</b>(The demand is acceptable, but the inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and the production capacity is lower) is also worthy of attention.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue of telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Compared with the average since 2006, the year-on-year growth rate of inventories such as semiconductors, media entertainment and consumer services is still high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditure on energy, transportation, semiconductors, etc. in the third quarter is still high</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the turnover rate of fixed assets such as software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail was significantly lower than the average since 2006</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Consumer services, tech hardware, transportation, semiconductors and other leverage ratios are higher than the 2006 average</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: We find more pressure on semiconductors, media entertainment, telecom services; Retail and Transportation Also Worth Watching</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research (Reddish indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: U.S. stock earnings may continue to be revised downward under recession pressure, and it is expected to be-5% in 2023; The market wants to rise or needs to be suppressed first, and the second quarter is under molecular pressure</b></p><p>Considering that the current financing cost of the whole United States has exceeded the return on investment (for example, the real yield of investment-grade bonds exceeded the real GDP growth rate by 342bp year-on-year in November; the 3m10s spread is currently inverted by 75bp; the interest rate of high-yield bonds once approached 10%, only lower than the S&P 500 ROIC 265bp; the 30-year mortgage interest rate was once close to 7%),<b>Therefore, the gradual decline may be a high probability event.</b>According to the historical experience of 3m10s spread inversion, the recession pressure may be in the first and second quarters of next year. However, according to the experience of 18 rounds of recession in review since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, too tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review Historical Experience of American Recessions\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze of financing costs on investment returns will not be obvious.<b>So as not to cause a very deep recession</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion amplitude of 3m10s is 150bp). Under this background, the profits of U.S. stocks will continue to fall with a high probability, but the adjustment range will not be very large. At present, we expect that the earnings growth rate in 2023 may decline to-5.5%, which still has downside from the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Investment-grade bond real yield – real GDP year-on-year growth spread crossed threshold in October, reaching 342bp at the end of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The 3m10s spread started inverting in early November and is currently inverted ~75bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current yield of U.S. high-yield bonds is 8.4%, and the spread with the ROIC of U.S. stocks is about 265bp</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: Current consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth of 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>The still inexpensive valuation superimposed on the increased recession pressure in the first and second quarters of next year may make US stocks want to rise first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E of the S&P 500 is 17.7 times, which is higher than the historical average of 16.2 times since 1990. The current recession of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided interest rate and risk appetite support for U.S. stocks. However, in the second quarter of next year, when the recession pressure increases, it may not be possible to get immediate compensation from the denominator end. After market fluctuations may force loose expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Deduction of the Three Stages of the Fed's Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming that the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year U.S. bond interest rate of 2.7% and ~3.8% corresponding to the low at the end of September, the reasonable valuation of S&P 500 is ~15 times. Our reasonable valuation based on growth and liquidity calculations is also roughly the same (48% ISM manufacturing PMI and ~3.8% 10-year U.S. bond interest rate correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5~15 times), and the implied support level is 10~15% lower than the current one. However, we expect the year-end point to be ~5% higher than the current one (Outlook for Overseas Markets in 2023: If you want to rise or need to suppress it first.)</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 12-month dynamic valuation 17.7x, higher than average since 1990</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 has fallen back to a relatively low 2.2%</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to fall since turning negative in mid-June this year</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force easing expectations, the rapid decline of US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level of the S&P 500 index is 10~15% lower than the current level. But we expect that year-end point to be ~5% higher than the current one</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research (Reddish means higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195902581","content_text":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。图表：可比口径下，三季度标普500指数EPS同比增长0.6%，较二季度2.9%继续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数EPS同比-1%，较上季度抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数盈利超预期幅度较上季度继续回落（三季度1.9% vs. 二季度2.9%），但超预期公司数占比仍达70%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息科技、工业、必需消费、医疗保健仍有超过75%公司超预期；超预期幅度上，能源、医疗保健、必需消费最高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。图表：三季度能源、消费者服务、交通运输盈利同比依然大幅领先，保险、媒体与娱乐等落后资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，零售、房地产、银行盈利增速抬升，但原材料、保险、生物制药等回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500 0.6%的EPS同比增速中，能源及可选消费贡献4.1和1.2ppt，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累2.5、1.3、1.2ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数-1%的EPS同比增速中，医疗保健、信息科技、通讯服务拖累明显，分别达-1.2、-1.1和-0.9ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀“三重压力”，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。图表：美股科技龙头三季度业绩情况一览资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（海外收入占比为截至2021年末各公司除美国外海外收入占比）图表：美股科技龙头（FAAMNG）市值占比已从2020年9月24.2%的高位回落至18.6%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG标普500指数表现与美国金融条件有明显负相关性资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG收入占标普500非金融比例从2021年9月10.7%高位回落至三季度10.4%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例从2020年末27%的高位回落至三季度的17.7%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG收入同比10.2%，低于2006年以来20%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG净利润同比-12.6%，低于2006年以来23%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。图表：三季度标普500指数非金融收入同比回落至9.6%，与名义GDP增速回落趋势基本一致资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，三季度能源、交通运输、原材料收入增速回落明显，资本品、公用事业抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数非金融板块净利润率回落至11%，非金融非能源净利润率回落至10.3%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业净利润率抬升明显，但软件与服务、媒体娱乐、原材料显著回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。图表：三季度库存依然偏高的半导体板块销售收入已经下滑，且毛利率继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度库存依然不足的汽车与零部件板块销售收入继续抬升，毛利率维持稳定资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：图表：三季度标普500非金融板块ROE回落至24.3%；净利润率回落、资产周转率及杠杆率基本不变资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：扣除能源后，三季度ROE回落至22.7%；净利润率回落，资产周转率及杠杆率略有抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 经营性现金流趋弱，信用债发行趋缓，在手现金减少。过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。图表：三季度非金融板块经营性现金流同比（TTM）继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、公用事业、交通运输板块经营性现金流同比领先，但可选消费、资本品同比落后资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：根据SIFMA统计，三季度企业信用债发行规模2961亿美元，同比回落32.9%，环比回落3.9%资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融在手现金较上季度回落至1.59万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费仍占比较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、信息科技在手现金占总资产比例最高，但仅能源、原材料、医疗保健较上季度抬升明显资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 回购规模继续回落。标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。图表：已披露的回购金额较上季度继续回落，约1960亿美元，占市值比例降至2.8%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息技术占30%、可选消费占16.4%、金融占12.8%，公用事业及房地产占比最低资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度的3.3%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献约2.4%，较二季度的2.2%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 杠杆持平，但偿付能力下降。三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。图表：三季度标普500非金融个股净杠杆率中位数维持在二季度的60%；整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融个股利率备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9，整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。我们在《美国主动去库存的资产含义》中指出美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。图表：三季度标普500非金融总库存规模继续抬升，原材料和产成品库存回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：总库存同比增速见顶回落（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%），原材料、半成品及产成品亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回顾历史经验，主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（标普500指数12个月动态EPS）平均在7%左右，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大资料来源：FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关（《美国中期选举的政策与市场含义》）。不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制（多个地方联储调查未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落，《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》）。图表：资本开支同比较二季度抬升（三季度21% vs. 二季度16.6%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：非金融非能源资本开支同比抬升（三季度16.4% vs. 二季度14.7%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度零售、半导体、电信服务资本开支规模超过疫情前水平，但能源、资本品、消费者服务等仍有差距资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度设备投资，尤其是信息处理设备以及运输设备增速较二季度抬升明显资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表：多个地方联储调查的未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。图表：三季度电信服务、生物科技与制药、媒体与娱乐销售收入同比增速显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：相比2006年以来均值，半导体、媒体娱乐、消费者服务等库存同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度能源、交通运输、半导体等资本开支同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度软件与服务、耐用消费品与服装、零售等固定资产周转率显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、科技硬件、运输、半导体等杠杆率较2006年均值更高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：我们发现半导体、媒体娱乐、电信服务压力更大；零售和交通运输也值得关注资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成（《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》），因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。图表：投资级债券实际收益率   – 实际GDP同比增速利差10月突破阈值，11月末达342bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：3m10s利差于11月初开始倒挂，当前已倒挂~75bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前美国高收益债收益率8.4%，与美股ROIC利差约265bp资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：当前30年期及15年期抵押贷款利率分别达6.5%和5.8%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前市场一致预期标普500指数2023年盈利增速5.7%，2024年9.5%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机（《推演美联储政策与资产轮动的三个阶段》）。假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%（《海外市场2023年展望：欲扬或需先抑》。）图表：标普500指数12个月动态估值17.7倍，高于1990年以来均值资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数隐含股权风险溢价已回落至2.2%的相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数盈利调情绪自今年6月中旬转负后持续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：明年二季度市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前标普500指数隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964327074,"gmtCreate":1670083783698,"gmtModify":1676538300126,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964327074","repostId":"2288911500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288911500","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670038838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288911500?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Report: US court formally dropped Meng Wanzhou's charges of \"bank fraud\" and other charges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288911500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the prosecution cannot be refiled,\" the written ruling said. Reuters said the United States officially ended the case, which has caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not re-file the lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said the U.S. officially ended the case, which has caused tensions between China and the U.S.</p><p>\"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the prosecution cannot be refiled,\" Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling, according to the Canadian Press.</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"DPA\" and did not violate it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng entered into a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the U.S. Department of Justice. Under the agreement, the U.S. agreed to drop the charges against Meng on Dec. 1, 2022, four years after the date of her arrest in Canada because of a U.S. arrest warrant.</p><p>Dec. 1, local time, New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Carolyn Pokorny, U.S. Attorney for the District of Lin, sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA), \"I hereby request (the court) to vacate the third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou in this case\".</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou transited through Vancouver Airport, Canada, she was detained without reason by the Canadian government on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, thus opening a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, on September 25, 2021, Meng Wanzhou left Canada on a chartered flight and returned to her motherland smoothly.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. It has long been fully proven that this is a witch hunt against Chinese citizens to suppress China's high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What was done in the United States and Canada was typical of arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report: US court formally dropped Meng Wanzhou's charges of \"bank fraud\" and other charges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport: US court formally dropped Meng Wanzhou's charges of \"bank fraud\" and other charges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the prosecution cannot be refiled,\" the written ruling said. Reuters said the United States officially ended the case, which has caused tensions between China and the United States. According to Reuters, after the request of the US prosecutor, the US court officially dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Huawei, on the 2nd local time, and could not re-file the lawsuit.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dropped the charges of \"bank fraud\" against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time. Reuters said the U.S. officially ended the case, which has caused tensions between China and the U.S.</p><p>\"It is hereby ordered that the aforementioned third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou be dropped and that the prosecution cannot be refiled,\" Ann Donnelly said in a written ruling, according to the Canadian Press.</p><p>According to Agence France-Presse, the U.S. Department of Justice also said on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou had completed the \"DPA\" and did not violate it within the term of the agreement. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng entered into a \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) with the U.S. Department of Justice. Under the agreement, the U.S. agreed to drop the charges against Meng on Dec. 1, 2022, four years after the date of her arrest in Canada because of a U.S. arrest warrant.</p><p>Dec. 1, local time, New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>Carolyn Pokorny, U.S. Attorney for the District of Lin, sent a letter to Ann Donnelly, saying that since there is no information that Meng Wanzhou violated the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA), \"I hereby request (the court) to vacate the third alternative prosecution against the defendant Meng Wanzhou in this case\".</p><p>According to previous reports, on December 1, 2018, when Meng Wanzhou transited through Vancouver Airport, Canada, she was detained without reason by the Canadian government on the grounds of \"at the request of the United States\". The United States accused her of misleading HSBC about Huawei's Iranian business, thus opening a long judicial and diplomatic game between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, on September 25, 2021, Meng Wanzhou left Canada on a chartered flight and returned to her motherland smoothly.</p><p>Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying emphasized in September 2021 that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. It has long been fully proven that this is a witch hunt against Chinese citizens to suppress China's high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are purely fabricated. What was done in the United States and Canada was typical of arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0b6d1912791f75d7ff43e981e7e05","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288911500","content_text":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。据路透社报道，在美国检方提出请求后，美国法院当地时间2日正式撤销对华为公司首席财务官孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控，且不能重新提起诉讼。据报道，美国地区法官安·唐纳利当地时间2日撤销了对孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控。路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。另据加拿大通讯社报道，安·唐纳利在一份书面裁决中表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”据法新社报道，美国司法部2日也表示，孟晚舟已完成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)且在协议期限内未有违反行为，因此指控已完全撤销，且不能重新提起诉讼。2021年9月，孟晚舟与美国司法部达成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)。根据该协议，美方同意在2022年12月1日，也就是孟晚舟因为美国的逮捕令而在加拿大被捕之日的4年后，撤销对她的指控。当地时间12月1日，纽约布鲁克林地区联邦检察官卡洛琳·波科尔尼致信安·唐纳利，称由于没有孟晚舟违反“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)的信息，“谨提请(法院)撤销本案中对被告孟晚舟的第三次替代起诉”。据此前报道，2018年12月1日，孟晚舟途经加拿大温哥华机场转机时，被加拿大政府以“应美方要求”为由无端拘押，美国指控她在华为的伊朗业务问题上误导汇丰银行，由此开启了中国与美加两国漫长的司法与外交博弈，孟晚舟也被加拿大非法拘押长达1028天。经各方不懈努力，2021年9月25日，孟晚舟乘坐包机离开加拿大，顺利回到祖国。中国外交部发言人华春莹2021年9月曾强调：中方在孟晚舟事件上立场是一贯的、明确的。事实早已充分证明，这是一起针对中国公民的政治迫害事件，目的是打压中国的高技术企业。对孟晚舟女士所谓“欺诈”的指控纯属捏造。美国、加拿大所作所为是典型的任意拘押。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4001,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964324236,"gmtCreate":1670083732325,"gmtModify":1676538300117,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964324236","repostId":"2288916102","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288916102","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1670046777,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288916102?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 13:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three big bosses in the currency circle have died mysteriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288916102","media":"券商中国","summary":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There are constant bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\".</p><p>Recently, Vyacheslav Taran, a big Russian currency circle and billionaire, died when his helicopter crashed at the border between France and Italy. Before Talan, two big bosses in the currency circle died mysteriously. Kurand, co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23rd, local time, at the age of 30; Mu Shegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, a US cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28th, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>In the meantime, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $16,000, and the latest price ($17,100) dropped by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, Mark Mobius, the \"godfather of emerging markets,\" warned that Bitcoin will continue to plunge in 2023, or will fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A superstorm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5th, the ban on Russian crude oil imposed by the European Union and the United States will officially come into effect, and traders have already felt the tension. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into force, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire, killed in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran died when his helicopter crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilot was experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last minute before departure. At present, the specific information of the passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and he is also another Russian super-rich person who has died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. For the past few years, he has lived in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded Forex Forex trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997, and in 2018 the platform was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Continued to operate in more than 100 other countries after the cancellation of the license. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran has made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and guaranteeing them that they can earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, which has caused a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. Russia's central bank has reportedly revoked Forex Club's license in 2018 as a result of Talan-owned subsidiaries directing customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Talan, two big bosses in the currency circle died unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that Tiantian Kullander, the co-founder of the company, died in his sleep on November 23rd, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to the local police, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowning on the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA on October 28th, local time. He was only 29 years old. MakerDAO launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The Collapsing Currency Circle</p><p>In the meantime, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the \"currency circle\" crisis is still fermenting. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price in Bitcoin plummeted in response, once falling to about 16,000 USD, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was 17,113 USD, a cumulative decline of 75% compared with the historical high of 69,000 USD in November 2021. The total global market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk to about $900 billion from $3 trillion in November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin, as the \"faith of the currency circle\", also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly hit the confidence of the cryptocurrency market heavily. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even warned that the Bitcoin will continue to plunge in 2023.</p><p>On December 1st, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin would plummet by 40% in 2023, falling below $10,000.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius founded Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\" and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below $20,000 this year.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that while he expects Bitcoin to move up and down near $17,000 in the near term, interest rates will keep rising as the Fed further rate hike, and he predicted that Bitcoin could fall below $10,000 by 2023.</p><p>The rationale given is that the Fed's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve has continued to tighten monetary policy sharply, which makes the number of dollars in circulation in the market decrease, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many cryptocurrency companies are headed for bankruptcy as cryptocurrency prices plunge and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A superstorm is brewing in the global energy market.</p><p>From December 5th, the ban on Russian crude oil imposed by the European Union and the United States will officially come into effect, and traders have already felt the tension.</p><p><b>According to the shipbroker, price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India to reach $15 million, or $20/barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. While the previous freight rate was $9 million, the potential increase was as high as 66.7%.</b></p><p>The soaring transportation costs reflect the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers ahead of the final deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of market attention at present is the price cap set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is below the ceiling, it can be immune to the impact of EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from several media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at 60 USD/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also land together when the latest sanctions of EU Rosneft come into effect on December 5th.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing a price cap on Russian oil.</p><p>And before that, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the Financial Times, Russian LNG supplies to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters in the first 10 months of 2022, up 42% year-on-year; The cost amounted to 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>\"Dark Fleet\" refers to tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue shipping Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. While the \"dark fleet\" consists mostly of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western-sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three big bosses in the currency circle have died mysteriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's the situation? Billionaire dies in plane crash! Three big bosses in the currency circle have died mysteriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 13:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There are constant bizarre events in the global \"currency circle\".</p><p>Recently, Vyacheslav Taran, a big Russian currency circle and billionaire, died when his helicopter crashed at the border between France and Italy. Before Talan, two big bosses in the currency circle died mysteriously. Kurand, co-founder of Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, died in his sleep on November 23rd, local time, at the age of 30; Mu Shegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, a US cryptocurrency lending platform, drowned on October 28th, local time, at the age of 29.</p><p><b>In the meantime, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $16,000, and the latest price ($17,100) dropped by 75% compared with the historical high. On December 1, Mark Mobius, the \"godfather of emerging markets,\" warned that Bitcoin will continue to plunge in 2023, or will fall below $10,000.</b></p><p>A superstorm is also brewing in the global energy market. From December 5th, the ban on Russian crude oil imposed by the European Union and the United States will officially come into effect, and traders have already felt the tension. Shipbrokers said price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India will reach $15 million after the sanctions order comes into force, compared with the previous rate of $9 million, a potential increase of up to 66.7%.</p><p>Russian billionaire, killed in plane crash</p><p>According to the British \"Daily Mail\" and other foreign media reports, recently, 53-year-old Russian billionaire Vyacheslav Taran died when his helicopter crashed at the border between France and Italy after taking off from Switzerland.</p><p><b>According to the report, Taran was the only passenger on board, and he and the 35-year-old French pilot on board were both killed. At present, the cause of the accident is still under investigation. It is understood that the Russian Embassy in France has confirmed Taran's death.</b></p><p>At the same time, Libertex Group also issued a statement saying that founder Taran died when his helicopter crashed on his way to Monaco.</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that when the plane crashed, the local weather was good, the pilot was experienced, and the authorities did not point out the problem of improper operation of the helicopter.</b></p><p>What's even more mysterious is that a passenger originally planned to take this helicopter to Monaco, but he canceled the trip at the last minute before departure. At present, the specific information of the passenger is unclear.</p><p>According to the report, Taran is the latest entrepreneur in the cryptocurrency field to die unexpectedly, and he is also another Russian super-rich person who has died mysteriously this year.</p><p>According to public information, Taran was born in Russia. For the past few years, he has lived in Monaco and enjoys a high reputation in the local financial industry. He founded Forex Forex trading platform \"Forex Club\" in Russia in 1997, and in 2018 the platform was<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>Continued to operate in more than 100 other countries after the cancellation of the license. The Libertex trading platform is part of the Forex Club Group, which offers a wide range of financial products, including cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>It is reported that Taran has made millions of dollars by involving Russian citizens in currency speculation and guaranteeing them that they can earn the maximum return with the lowest investment, which has caused a large number of Russian investors to lose their money.</p><p>Therefore, some analysts believe that this may lead to many Russians being dissatisfied with it. Russia's central bank has reportedly revoked Forex Club's license in 2018 as a result of Talan-owned subsidiaries directing customers to offshore companies.</p><p>In the past month or so, the shadow of death seems to be hanging over the cryptocurrency market. Before Talan, two big bosses in the currency circle died unexpectedly.</p><p>Recently, Amber Group, a global virtual asset service provider, announced that Tiantian Kullander, the co-founder of the company, died in his sleep on November 23rd, local time, at the age of 30.</p><p>In addition, according to the local police, Nikolai Mushegian, co-founder of MakerDAO, an American cryptocurrency lending platform, was found drowning on the beach of Condado, Puerto Rico, USA on October 28th, local time. He was only 29 years old. MakerDAO launched on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 and issued the first decentralized stablecoin DAI on Ethereum.</p><p>The Collapsing Currency Circle</p><p>In the meantime, the cryptocurrency market is not quiet.</p><p>At present, the \"currency circle\" crisis is still fermenting. Following the explosion of FTX, the world's second largest cryptocurrency investment platform, virtual currency lending platform BlockFi also suddenly filed for bankruptcy. Affected by this news, the price in Bitcoin plummeted in response, once falling to about 16,000 USD, and then rebounded slightly. The latest price was 17,113 USD, a cumulative decline of 75% compared with the historical high of 69,000 USD in November 2021. The total global market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk to about $900 billion from $3 trillion in November last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2564642f574f0ab352fa11ce378111\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"888\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bitcoin, as the \"faith of the currency circle\", also suffered a crash, which undoubtedly hit the confidence of the cryptocurrency market heavily. The \"godfather of emerging markets\" even warned that the Bitcoin will continue to plunge in 2023.</p><p>On December 1st, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners, said in an interview with the media that the price of Bitcoin once fell below the technical support level of $17,000. He predicted that Bitcoin would plummet by 40% in 2023, falling below $10,000.</p><p>According to public information, Mark Mobius founded Mobius Capital Partners in 2018. Prior to that, he served as executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, was known as the \"godfather of emerging markets\" and successfully predicted that Bitcoin would fall below $20,000 this year.</p><p>Mobius said in a media interview that while he expects Bitcoin to move up and down near $17,000 in the near term, interest rates will keep rising as the Fed further rate hike, and he predicted that Bitcoin could fall below $10,000 by 2023.</p><p>The rationale given is that the Fed's continued tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates make it less attractive to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as interest rates rise, because holding these cryptocurrencies does not generate interest.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve has continued to tighten monetary policy sharply, which makes the number of dollars in circulation in the market decrease, making it more difficult for investors to participate in cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>Mobius has warned that many cryptocurrency companies are headed for bankruptcy as cryptocurrency prices plunge and liquidity dries up.</p><p>Among them, Celsius, a lending platform that provides high interest rates for cryptocurrency investors, filed for bankruptcy protection in July this year. In addition, BlockFi recently filed for bankruptcy due to its large exposure to FTX.</p><p>A super storm</p><p>A superstorm is brewing in the global energy market.</p><p>From December 5th, the ban on Russian crude oil imposed by the European Union and the United States will officially come into effect, and traders have already felt the tension.</p><p><b>According to the shipbroker, price negotiations currently underway show tanker charges from the Baltic Sea to India to reach $15 million, or $20/barrel, after the sanctions order takes effect. While the previous freight rate was $9 million, the potential increase was as high as 66.7%.</b></p><p>The soaring transportation costs reflect the severe challenges faced by Russian crude oil suppliers ahead of the final deadline, when top tanker owners from European countries such as Greece will stop providing shipping and other services for crude oil produced in Russia.</p><p>Another focus of market attention at present is the price cap set by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil. According to the sanctions policy, as long as the trading price of Russian oil is below the ceiling, it can be immune to the impact of EU sanctions. According to the latest reports from several media, the European Commission, the executive body of the European Union, has proposed to 27 member states to set the price limit of Russian oil at 60 USD/barrel.</p><p>If the EU and G7 member states can reach an agreement, this price restriction measure will also land together when the latest sanctions of EU Rosneft come into effect on December 5th.</p><p>However, it is worth mentioning that Russia has a very tough attitude towards this. It has already announced that it will not sell any oil and natural gas to countries involved in imposing a price cap on Russian oil.</p><p>And before that, the EU was frantically importing Russian LNG. According to the Financial Times, Russian LNG supplies to European countries reached a record 17.8 billion cubic meters in the first 10 months of 2022, up 42% year-on-year; The cost amounted to 12.5 billion euros (about 92.5 billion yuan), five times that of the same period last year and a record high.</p><p>As the embargo takes effect approaches, some buyers and sellers of Russian crude oil have set their sights on the \"dark fleet\".</p><p>\"Dark Fleet\" refers to tankers held by unidentified shipowners who are willing to continue shipping Russian oil despite the threat of sanctions. While the \"dark fleet\" consists mostly of older ships, many of which have a track record of dealing with Western-sanctioned countries such as Iran.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288916102","content_text":"全球“币圈”的离奇事件不断。近日，俄罗斯币圈大佬、亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。而在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬离奇去世，分别是全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group联合创始人库兰德于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁；美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安于当地时间10月28日溺水身亡，年仅29岁。与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格一度跌至1.6万美元，最新价格（1.71万美元）相较于历史高位累计跌幅达75%。12月1日，“新兴市场教父”Mark Mobius警告称，2023年比特币将继续暴跌，或将跌破1万美元。全球能源市场的一场超级风暴也正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。俄罗斯亿万富翁，坠机身亡据英国《每日邮报》等多家外媒报道，近日，53岁的俄罗斯亿万富翁维亚切斯拉夫·塔兰 (Vyacheslav Taran)乘坐的直升机从瑞士起飞后在法国和意大利边境处坠毁，塔兰不幸身亡。报道称，塔兰是机上唯一一名乘客，他与机上35岁的法国飞行员均遇难。目前，事故原因仍在调查中。据了解，俄罗斯驻法国大使馆已经证实了塔兰的死讯。同时，Libertex集团也发布声明称，创始人塔兰在前往摩纳哥的途中，因搭乘的直升机坠毁而身亡。值得一提的是，飞机失事时，当地天气良好、飞行员经验丰富、当局亦未指出直升机存在操作不当的问题。更为神秘的是，原本有一名旅客计划搭乘这架直升机前往摩纳哥，但其在起飞前的最后一刻取消了这趟行程，目前暂不清楚该名旅客的具体信息。报道称，塔兰是最新一位意外去世的加密货币领域企业家，也是今年以来又一位神秘离世的俄罗斯超级富豪。据公开资料显示，塔兰出生于俄罗斯，过去几年，其一直居住在摩纳哥，且在当地金融行业享有盛誉。他于1997年在俄罗斯创立了福瑞斯外汇交易平台“Forex Club”，2018年该平台被俄罗斯中央银行取消许可证后，继续在其他100多个国家开展业务。Libertex交易平台隶属于Forex Club Group，该平台提供广泛的金融产品，包括加密货币交易。有报道称，塔兰曾通过让俄罗斯公民参与货币投机活动，并向其保证能以最低投入赚取最大回报，大赚了数百万美元，令大量俄罗斯投资者血本无归。因此，有分析认为，这可能导致有很多俄罗斯人对其不满。据报道，因塔兰旗下子公司将客户引至离岸公司，俄罗斯央行已于2018年撤销了Forex Club的执照。近一个多月来，死亡阴影似乎笼罩在加密货币市场，在塔兰之前，已有2位币圈大佬意外离世。近日，全球虚拟资产服务提供商Amber Group发布公告称，公司联合创始人库兰德（Tiantian Kullander）于当地时间11月23日在睡梦中去世，年仅30岁。另外，据当地警方确认，美国加密货币借贷平台MakerDAO联合创始人穆谢吉安（Nikolai Mushegian）于当地时间10月28日在美国波多黎各Condado海滩边被发现溺水身亡，年仅29岁。MakerDAO于2017年在以太坊(Ethereum)区块链上推出，并在以太坊发行了首个去中心化稳定币DAI。崩盘的币圈与此同时，加密货币市场也不平静。当前，“币圈”危机仍在继续发酵。继全球第二大加密货币投资平台FTX爆雷后，虚拟货币贷款平台BlockFi也突然申请破产。受此消息影响，比特币价格应声大跌，一度跌至1.6万美元左右，随后稍有回升，最新价格为17113美元，相较于2021年11月的历史高位6.9万美元，累计跌幅高达75%。全球加密货币总市值由去年11月的3万亿美元缩水至大约9000亿美元。作为“币圈信仰”的比特币也遭遇崩盘，这无疑重创加密货币市场信心，“新兴市场教父”甚至发出警告，2023年比特币将继续暴跌。12月1日，Mobius Capital Partners的联合创始人Mark Mobius在接受媒体采访时称，比特币的价格一度跌破17000美元的技术支撑位，他预测2023年比特币还将暴跌40%，将跌破1万美元。公开资料显示，Mark Mobius于2018年成立了Mobius Capital Partners，在此之前，他曾担任邓普顿新兴市场集团的执行主席，被誉为“新兴市场教父”，并在今年成功预测比特币将跌破2万美元。Mobius在媒体采访中表示，虽然他预计比特币短期内将在17000美元附近上下波动，但随着美联储的进一步加息，利率将不断上涨，他预测到2023年，比特币可能会跌破1万美元。其给出的理由是，美联储的持续紧缩的货币政策和不断上涨的利率，随着利率上升，购买比特币或其他加密货币的吸引力会降低，因为持有这些加密货币并不会产生利息。另外，美联储持续大幅加息收紧货币政策，使得市场流通的美元正在减少，投资者变得更难参与加密货币的交易。Mobius警告称，随着加密货币价格暴跌和流动性枯竭，许多加密货币公司将走向破产。其中，Celsius是为加密货币投资者提供高利率的借贷平台，其于今年7月份申请了破产保护。另外，BlockFi因持有FTX很大的风险敞口，也于最近申请了破产。一场超级风暴全球能源市场的一场超级风暴正在酝酿。12月5日起，欧盟、美国对俄罗斯原油的禁令将正式生效，贸易商已经感受到了紧张氛围。据船舶经纪商表示，目前正在进行的价格谈判显示，在制裁令生效后，从波罗的海至印度的油轮费用将达到1500万美元，即20美元/桶。而之前的运价为900万美元，潜在涨幅高达66.7%。运输成本飙升反映出，俄罗斯原油供应商在最后截止日前所面临的严峻挑战，届时来自希腊等欧洲国家的顶级油轮所有者，将停止为俄罗斯生产的原油提供航运和其他服务。目前市场关注的另一个焦点是，G7和欧盟对俄油制定的价格上限。据制裁政策显示，只要俄油的交易价格低于上限，就可以不受欧盟制裁影响。据多家媒体的最新报道，欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会已经向27个成员国提议，将俄油限价定在60美元/桶。如果欧盟和G7成员国能够达成一致，这项价格限制措施，也将在12月5日欧盟俄油最新制裁生效时一同落地。但值得一提的是，俄罗斯方面对此态度非常强硬，其早已宣布，不会向参与对俄油实施价格上限的国家出售任何石油和天然气。而在此之前，欧盟正在疯狂进口俄罗斯的液化天然气，据英国《金融时报》报道，2022年前10个月，俄罗斯对欧洲国家的液化天然气供应量达到创纪录的178亿立方米，同比增长42%；耗资高达125亿欧元(约合人民币925亿元)，是去年同期的五倍，亦创出历史最高纪录。随着禁运生效时点临近，部分俄罗斯原油的买卖双方，将目光投向了“黑暗船队”。“黑暗船队”是指，由未透露身份的船东持有的油轮，尽管面临制裁威胁，船东仍愿意继续运输俄油。而“黑暗船队”大多由较老的船只组成，其中许多有着与伊朗等受西方制裁国家打交道的记录。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"835174":1,"835184":1,"835185":1,"835305":1,"835368":1,"835508":1,"835640":1,"835670":1,"870436":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965216858,"gmtCreate":1669957690275,"gmtModify":1676538278430,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965216858","repostId":"1125738659","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962422039,"gmtCreate":1669825906721,"gmtModify":1676538252042,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962422039","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960343825,"gmtCreate":1668082789268,"gmtModify":1676538009681,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960343825","repostId":"1117158204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117158204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668079921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117158204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 19:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"SMIC Q3 revenue of $1.907 billion, net income of $470 million","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117158204","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Released third quarter 2022 results. According to the financial report, the revenue in the third quarter was USD 1.907 billion, the market expected USD 1.935 billion and USD 1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit of $470 million, market expectation of $493 million, and $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings of $0.06 per share compared to the market estimate of $0.06 and $0.04 in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US$742 million, compared to US$750 million in the second quarter of 2022 and an increase of 58.6% compared to US$468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was $1,165 million, compared to $1,153 million in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is expected that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in mobile phones and consumer fields, and the impact of some customers needing buffer time to interpret the new export control regulations in the United States, the sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% quarter-on-quarter, and the gross profit margin is between 30% and 32%. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance of the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised to $6.6 billion from $5 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMIC Q3 revenue of $1.907 billion, net income of $470 million</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMIC Q3 revenue of $1.907 billion, net income of $470 million\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 10,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>Released third quarter 2022 results. According to the financial report, the revenue in the third quarter was USD 1.907 billion, the market expected USD 1.935 billion and USD 1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit of $470 million, market expectation of $493 million, and $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings of $0.06 per share compared to the market estimate of $0.06 and $0.04 in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit in the third quarter was US$742 million, compared to US$750 million in the second quarter of 2022 and an increase of 58.6% compared to US$468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales in the third quarter was $1,165 million, compared to $1,153 million in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>It is expected that in the fourth quarter, due to the weak demand in mobile phones and consumer fields, and the impact of some customers needing buffer time to interpret the new export control regulations in the United States, the sales revenue is expected to drop by 13% to 15% quarter-on-quarter, and the gross profit margin is between 30% and 32%. According to the results of the first three quarters and the median guidance of the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 34%, and the gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan was raised to $6.6 billion from $5 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecaf7b843618667282559909e22a1fb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","BK0214":"IT设备","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1526":"科网股","00981":"中芯国际","BK1163":"半导体产品"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117158204","content_text":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.21亿美元；每股收益0.06美元，市场预期0.06美元，去年同期0.04美元。第三季毛利为7.42亿美元，相比2022年第二季为7.5亿美元，相较于2021年第三季的4.68亿美元增长58.6%。第三季的销售成本为11.65亿美元，相较于2022年第二季为11.53亿美元。预计第四季度，受手机、消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美元左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。全年资本支出计画从50亿美元上调为66亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987314726,"gmtCreate":1667822437965,"gmtModify":1676537969210,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987314726","repostId":"2281443627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281443627","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667793078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281443627?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! US stocks will rise 6% in the midterm election quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281443627","media":"智通财经","summary":"70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. midterm elections, which have been a big positive for U.S. stocks for more than 70 years. However, rising interest rates, rising recession risks and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. Historically, though, the fourth quarter and the year after the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest Democrats could lose control of the U.S. House and Senate, and stocks could get a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government that would almost kill any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: \"It's good that the U.S. government is divided. The government can't do anything and there will be no more uncertainty in the next two years. When companies understand the competitive environment, they can operate, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses.\"</p><p>A period of gains in stocks, fueled by the U.S. midterm elections, will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Fed's most aggressive monetary tightening in decades has sent the S&P 500 down 21%, pummeling investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even losing control of any chamber of the U.S. Congress would undermine Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy when it slows, removing one potential justification for Fed Chairman Powell's further rate hike to tame inflation. U.S. October CPI data will be released on Thursday, when investors will get another key piece of data on rising prices, which will also provide a glimpse into the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that options pricing shows the S&P 500 would rise at most 0.7% if Republicans win; If Democrats remained in control of Congress, the S&P 500 would fall 3.3%. But to be sure, the results may not be immediately clear, especially if the candidates refuse to acknowledge the results or incite challenges to them. The risk of violence or protests after the vote can upset the mood of the population.</p><p>On a longer-term basis, U.S. stocks are in the most bullish period of the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is comforting to bulls. Historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two following quarters have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 averaging 6.6%, 7.4% and 4.8% gains in those quarters since 1950, according to Carson Investment Research.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this year's outlook is complicated by a possible Fed rate hike. Last week, Powell shattered expectations of the Fed's policy adjustment, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"a way to go\" and that the peak of its key policy rate may be higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: \"The medium-term seasonality is not going to last this time, because the market is still unaware of the fact that interest rates need to stay high for longer. Some investors have confused the Fed's pause in rate hike with the Fed's policy shift. A shift would mean that the Fed is changing direction completely. But not at the moment. The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Fed is likely to suspend its rate hike in 2023 because they need to see the impact on the economy of the steps they've already taken. But suspending rate hike does not mean that after the pause, they will certainly lower interest rates. They could pause rate hike and then rate hike again, especially with inflation stubbornly high. \"</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a period of strength in U.S. stocks. The third year (next year) of the US presidential election cycle is the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 up an average of 14%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of the election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 has barely seen any declines after the midterm elections in the past. On average, the index moved higher in the month, three months, half-year and full year following the midterm elections, according to an analysis of data from 1950 onwards by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 is up an average of 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The logic, in Delwiche's view, is this: the politicians in power want *, so they start enacting looser policies ahead of the election. But this time, there's little certainty about what will happen next, and discontent with inflation could change the typical political playbook. Delwiche said: \"The difference in this cycle is that we haven't seen more stimulus policies so far, but the opposite. This cycle is not an expectation of what is about to happen, but a reaction to what has already happened. If the Republican Party wins in the midterm elections, the policy may be more favorable to the market, which may support the S&P index.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! US stocks will rise 6% in the midterm election quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! US stocks will rise 6% in the midterm election quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-07 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. midterm elections, which have been a big positive for U.S. stocks for more than 70 years. However, rising interest rates, rising recession risks and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. Historically, though, the fourth quarter and the year after the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest Democrats could lose control of the U.S. House and Senate, and stocks could get a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government that would almost kill any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: \"It's good that the U.S. government is divided. The government can't do anything and there will be no more uncertainty in the next two years. When companies understand the competitive environment, they can operate, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses.\"</p><p>A period of gains in stocks, fueled by the U.S. midterm elections, will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Fed's most aggressive monetary tightening in decades has sent the S&P 500 down 21%, pummeling investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even losing control of any chamber of the U.S. Congress would undermine Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy when it slows, removing one potential justification for Fed Chairman Powell's further rate hike to tame inflation. U.S. October CPI data will be released on Thursday, when investors will get another key piece of data on rising prices, which will also provide a glimpse into the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that options pricing shows the S&P 500 would rise at most 0.7% if Republicans win; If Democrats remained in control of Congress, the S&P 500 would fall 3.3%. But to be sure, the results may not be immediately clear, especially if the candidates refuse to acknowledge the results or incite challenges to them. The risk of violence or protests after the vote can upset the mood of the population.</p><p>On a longer-term basis, U.S. stocks are in the most bullish period of the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is comforting to bulls. Historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two following quarters have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 averaging 6.6%, 7.4% and 4.8% gains in those quarters since 1950, according to Carson Investment Research.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this year's outlook is complicated by a possible Fed rate hike. Last week, Powell shattered expectations of the Fed's policy adjustment, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"a way to go\" and that the peak of its key policy rate may be higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: \"The medium-term seasonality is not going to last this time, because the market is still unaware of the fact that interest rates need to stay high for longer. Some investors have confused the Fed's pause in rate hike with the Fed's policy shift. A shift would mean that the Fed is changing direction completely. But not at the moment. The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Fed is likely to suspend its rate hike in 2023 because they need to see the impact on the economy of the steps they've already taken. But suspending rate hike does not mean that after the pause, they will certainly lower interest rates. They could pause rate hike and then rate hike again, especially with inflation stubbornly high. \"</p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a period of strength in U.S. stocks. The third year (next year) of the US presidential election cycle is the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 up an average of 14%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of the election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks: The S&P 500 has barely seen any declines after the midterm elections in the past. On average, the index moved higher in the month, three months, half-year and full year following the midterm elections, according to an analysis of data from 1950 onwards by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 is up an average of 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The logic, in Delwiche's view, is this: the politicians in power want *, so they start enacting looser policies ahead of the election. But this time, there's little certainty about what will happen next, and discontent with inflation could change the typical political playbook. Delwiche said: \"The difference in this cycle is that we haven't seen more stimulus policies so far, but the opposite. This cycle is not an expectation of what is about to happen, but a reaction to what has already happened. If the Republican Party wins in the midterm elections, the policy may be more favorable to the market, which may support the S&P index.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281443627","content_text":"美国股市的近期命运取决于美国中期选举，而70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。然而目前不断上升的利率、不断加剧的衰退风险以及40年来最严重的通货膨胀，可能会导致目前形势与过去历史趋势的偏离。不过，从历史上看，第四季度和中期选举后的一年一直是四年总统周期中股市表现最强劲的时期。民调显示，民主党可能会失去对美国参众两院的控制权，股市可能会从另一个传统上有利的因素得到进一步提振：一个分裂的美国政府几乎会扼杀任何可能改变经济前景的重大立法。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：“美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。”在美国中期选举的推动下，股市出现一段时间的上涨将受到投资者的欢迎。今年，美联储数十年来最激进的货币紧缩政策已导致标普500指数下跌21%，令投资者遭受重创。即使失去对美国国会任何一个议院的控制，也会削弱民主党在经济放缓时制定财政措施刺激经济的能力，这将消除美联储主席鲍威尔进一步加息以抑制通胀的一个潜在理由。美国10月份CPI数据将于周四公布，届时投资者将获得另一个有关物价上涨的关键数据，这也将有助于窥探美联储未来几个月的加息步伐。Optiver估计，期权定价显示，如果共和党获胜，标普500指数最多将上涨0.7%;如果民主党继续控制了国会，标普500指数将下跌3.3%。但可以肯定的是，选举结果可能不会立即明朗，特别是如果候选人拒绝承认选举结果或煽动对选举结果的质疑。投票后发生暴力或抗议的风险可能会扰乱民众的情绪。从更长时间来看，美国股市正处于美国总统周期接下来16个季度中最看涨的时期，这让看涨股市的人感到欣慰。Carson Investment Research的数据显示，从历史上看，中期选举年的第四季度和之后的两个季度最为强劲，自1950年以来标普500指数在上述季度的平均涨幅分别为6.6%、7.4%和4.8%。然而，今年的前景因美联储可能加息而变得复杂。上周，鲍威尔打破了外界对美联储调整政策的预期，称美联储加息仍有\"一段路要走\"，其关键政策利率的峰值可能高于预期。SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young表示:“中期季节性因素这次不会持续下去，因为市场仍然没有意识到利率需要在更长时间内维持在高位的事实。一些投资者混淆了美联储的暂停加息与美联储政策转向的关系。转向将意味着美联储正在彻底改变方向。但目前不是。避免衰退的机会非常低，所以美联储很可能在2023年暂停加息，因为他们需要看到他们已经采取的措施对经济的影响。但暂停加息并不意味着暂停后，他们肯定会调低利率。他们可能会暂停加息，然后再次加息，尤其是在通胀居高不下的情况下。”以史为鉴，美联储暂停加息很可能将发生在美股的强势时期。Bespoke Investment Group汇编的数据显示，自二战以来，美国总统选举周期的第三年(明年)是最强劲的一年，标普500指数平均上涨了14%。标普500指数在选举周期的第二年里有57%的时间出现上涨，在第三年83%的时间出现上涨。另一个美股强劲的先例是:标普500指数过去几乎没有在中期选举后出现过任何下跌。根据All Star Charts投资策略师Willie Delwiche对1950年以来数据的分析，平均而言，该指数在中期选举后的一个月、三个月、半年和一整年都走高。中期选举一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了15%。在Delwiche看来，逻辑是这样的:当权的政客想要连任，所以他们开始在大选前制定更宽松的政策。但这一次，接下来会发生什么几乎不确定，对通胀的不满可能会改变典型的政治剧本。Delwiche称：“这个周期的不同之处在于，到目前为止我们还没有看到更多的刺激政策，反而情况相反。这个周期不是对即将发生的事情的预期，而是对已经发生的事情的反应。如果共和党在中期选举中获胜，政策可能会更加有利于市场，这可能会支撑标普指数。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984872046,"gmtCreate":1667611156086,"gmtModify":1676537943759,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984872046","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment rate is low; Also pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on the market. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe havens, the most since the onset of Covid.</p><p>A Bank of America report, citing EPFR global data, noted that $62.1 billion of money poured into cash-like assets in the week ending Nov. 2. From the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion of money poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from a Fed escrow account into cash and into an overnight Fed reverse repo facility.</p><p>In October, even Bridgewater founder Dalio, who has long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I don't think of cash as junk anymore. At existing rates and with the Fed tapering its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now — neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw $6.3 billion in inflows this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Friday's data showed that while unemployment climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October, Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October nonfarm payrolls report.</p><p>Hartnett doesn't expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance even when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy turnaround. The end of tightening by the Fed requires a recession and credit events that will fuel a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, BofA expects stocks could bottom out next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The Bank of America-designed bull-bear indicator remained at \"extremely bearish\" levels for the seventh week in a row, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, things must be reversed at extremes, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also noted to pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on markets. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. And a Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House, and the party is seeking to maintain a narrow grip on the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment rate is low; Also pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on the market. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe havens, the most since the onset of Covid.</p><p>A Bank of America report, citing EPFR global data, noted that $62.1 billion of money poured into cash-like assets in the week ending Nov. 2. From the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion of money poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from a Fed escrow account into cash and into an overnight Fed reverse repo facility.</p><p>In October, even Bridgewater founder Dalio, who has long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I don't think of cash as junk anymore. At existing rates and with the Fed tapering its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now — neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw $6.3 billion in inflows this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Friday's data showed that while unemployment climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October, Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October nonfarm payrolls report.</p><p>Hartnett doesn't expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance even when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy turnaround. The end of tightening by the Fed requires a recession and credit events that will fuel a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, BofA expects stocks could bottom out next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The Bank of America-designed bull-bear indicator remained at \"extremely bearish\" levels for the seventh week in a row, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, things must be reversed at extremes, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also noted to pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on markets. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. And a Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House, and the party is seeking to maintain a narrow grip on the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"IVV":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984876767,"gmtCreate":1667611141460,"gmtModify":1676537943752,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984876767","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment rate is low; Also pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on the market. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe havens, the most since the onset of Covid.</p><p>A Bank of America report, citing EPFR global data, noted that $62.1 billion of money poured into cash-like assets in the week ending Nov. 2. From the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion of money poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from a Fed escrow account into cash and into an overnight Fed reverse repo facility.</p><p>In October, even Bridgewater founder Dalio, who has long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I don't think of cash as junk anymore. At existing rates and with the Fed tapering its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now — neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw $6.3 billion in inflows this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Friday's data showed that while unemployment climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October, Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October nonfarm payrolls report.</p><p>Hartnett doesn't expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance even when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy turnaround. The end of tightening by the Fed requires a recession and credit events that will fuel a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, BofA expects stocks could bottom out next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The Bank of America-designed bull-bear indicator remained at \"extremely bearish\" levels for the seventh week in a row, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, things must be reversed at extremes, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also noted to pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on markets. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. And a Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House, and the party is seeking to maintain a narrow grip on the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors poured into cash fastest since the early days of the pandemic, and analysts say the Fed won't pivot for a while\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Fed remains hawkish, cash is king again. Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment rate is low; Also pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on the market. The time has come again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe havens, the most since the onset of Covid.</p><p>A Bank of America report, citing EPFR global data, noted that $62.1 billion of money poured into cash-like assets in the week ending Nov. 2. From the fourth quarter in early October, a cumulative $194 billion of money poured into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recently, the media said that overseas central banks also seem to be preparing for the battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they are converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from a Fed escrow account into cash and into an overnight Fed reverse repo facility.</p><p>In October, even Bridgewater founder Dalio, who has long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune. He said that he no longer thought so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. \"I don't think of cash as junk anymore. At existing rates and with the Fed tapering its balance sheet, it (cash) is almost neutral now — neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term rates are right now.\"</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw $6.3 billion in inflows this week, while nearly $4 billion was withdrawn from bonds.</p><p>Friday's data showed that while unemployment climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October, Michael Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October nonfarm payrolls report.</p><p>Hartnett doesn't expect the Fed to shift its monetary policy stance even when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy turnaround. The end of tightening by the Fed requires a recession and credit events that will fuel a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, BofA expects stocks could bottom out next spring due to \"recession shocks.\" After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peaked, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>The Bank of America-designed bull-bear indicator remained at \"extremely bearish\" levels for the seventh week in a row, the longest since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearish is usually regarded as a contrarian indicator, that is, things must be reversed at extremes, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also noted to pay attention to the impact of next Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections on markets. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. And a Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House, and the party is seeking to maintain a narrow grip on the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SH":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"IVV":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322205,"gmtCreate":1667541159308,"gmtModify":1676537934788,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322205","repostId":"1116728116","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322802,"gmtCreate":1667541144806,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322802","repostId":"1166983194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166983194","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667537951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166983194?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 12:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Onshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and offshore RMB rose more than 800 points in the day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166983194","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一度升破7.25关口。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina's quotation, the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points against the US dollar in the day, once rising above the 7.25 mark. According to China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose nearly 600 points against the US dollar in the day, with a maximum of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Onshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and offshore RMB rose more than 800 points in the day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOnshore and offshore RMB rose sharply, and offshore RMB rose more than 800 points in the day\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 12:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina's quotation, the offshore RMB rose by more than 800 points against the US dollar in the day, once rising above the 7.25 mark. According to China Money Network, the onshore RMB rose nearly 600 points against the US dollar in the day, with a maximum of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cccbce0c5998697ff43e746c3c08fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166983194","content_text":"据新浪报价，离岸人民币兑美元日内大涨超800点，一度升破7.25关口。据中国货币网，在岸人民币兑美元日内大涨近600点，最高报7.2422。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322190,"gmtCreate":1667541134511,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322190","repostId":"1151050074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151050074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667538169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151050074?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, science and technology stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151050074","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4th, the Hang Seng Technology Index jumped in the afternoon, now rising by more than 10%, and the Hang Seng Index has risen by more than 7%; Science and technology stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>Up about 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up about 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a>It rose by more than 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, science and technology stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHang Seng Technology Index rose more than 10%, science and technology stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 13:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4th, the Hang Seng Technology Index jumped in the afternoon, now rising by more than 10%, and the Hang Seng Index has risen by more than 7%; Science and technology stocks continued to strengthen in the afternoon,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>Up about 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>Up about 19%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a>It rose by more than 17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>Up nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151050074","content_text":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东集团-SW涨超15%，腾讯控股涨近11%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322943,"gmtCreate":1667541122582,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322943","repostId":"1124495599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322017,"gmtCreate":1667541100339,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322017","repostId":"1100967585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100967585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667540649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100967585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:44","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100967585","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts noted that the end result is likely to be a slowdown in economic growth and a longer period of high energy costs. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, an old commodity industry adage. That means letting \"this invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately depressing commodity prices.</p><p>This adage has been repeatedly argued over the centuries, and generations of financial scientists and investors have convinced it. Every boom in commodities has been followed by a bust: such as after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the latest U.S. shale boom a decade ago.</p><p>But Javier Blas, Bloomberg's energy and commodities columnist, wrote,<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, rising crude oil prices have dampened demand. But the other side of the equation — supply — is not working as well as it should. The oil industry is no longer responding to high oil prices with increased investment as it used to. Which means,<b>Oil demand will be the entire impetus to rebalance the oil market.</b>Which results<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing and high energy costs have lasted longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil industry spending on oil production and exploration (in $1 billion)</p><p>Why is high oil prices not working on the supply side anymore? Money is certainly not an issue. Big Oil has had its best six months ever this year, making more than $100 billion in profits between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>Just had the best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's net profit in the third quarter reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's already upgraded expectations and nearly matching the tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The level of profit.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are demanding that oil companies rein in spending, Exxon Mobil and its rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>Companies after reporting huge profits<b>No significant increase in spending on the original plan has been announced</b>, they work to turn profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and output as quickly as possible when oil prices were high, in an attempt to make a fortune before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this makes<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: the collective investment of big oil companies is seriously underinvested.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent just $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than what is needed to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030,<b>The global energy sector needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) annually,</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement their current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending needs to grow by 25% from current levels and at least until 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that the reaction of oil companies to high oil prices is understandable now. Their reduction in fossil fuel production is supported by environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment tycoons. Of course, the industry quickly realized that reducing spending was a good business, especially when everyone did it. Currently, only a handful of Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their spending on fossil fuels.</p><p>Javier noted that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand has peaked and declined rapidly. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fully reflected this.</p><p>Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to spend more quickly in the face of high oil prices. But after witnessing how profitable it can be to ignore the industry's old adage, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and a lower share price.</p><p>On Monday, US President Joe Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agree to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden's remarks as an olive branch thrown out to the fossil fuel industry, meaning a 180-degree shift in promises Biden made on the campaign trail.</p><p>However, Javier said a windfall tax could play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is not expected to be significant,<b>Because reducing the profitability of an industry by raising taxes does not encourage more spending. He</b>Argues that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the conversation, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors — America needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"invisible hand\" of the oil market fails, and higher oil prices can't kill high oil prices?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts noted that the end result is likely to be a slowdown in economic growth and a longer period of high energy costs. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, an old commodity industry adage. That means letting \"this invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately depressing commodity prices.</p><p>This adage has been repeatedly argued over the centuries, and generations of financial scientists and investors have convinced it. Every boom in commodities has been followed by a bust: such as after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the latest U.S. shale boom a decade ago.</p><p>But Javier Blas, Bloomberg's energy and commodities columnist, wrote,<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, rising crude oil prices have dampened demand. But the other side of the equation — supply — is not working as well as it should. The oil industry is no longer responding to high oil prices with increased investment as it used to. Which means,<b>Oil demand will be the entire impetus to rebalance the oil market.</b>Which results<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing and high energy costs have lasted longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Oil industry spending on oil production and exploration (in $1 billion)</p><p>Why is high oil prices not working on the supply side anymore? Money is certainly not an issue. Big Oil has had its best six months ever this year, making more than $100 billion in profits between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>Just had the best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's net profit in the third quarter reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's already upgraded expectations and nearly matching the tech giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The level of profit.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are demanding that oil companies rein in spending, Exxon Mobil and its rivals<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>Companies after reporting huge profits<b>No significant increase in spending on the original plan has been announced</b>, they work to turn profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and output as quickly as possible when oil prices were high, in an attempt to make a fortune before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this makes<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: the collective investment of big oil companies is seriously underinvested.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent just $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than what is needed to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030,<b>The global energy sector needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) annually,</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement their current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending needs to grow by 25% from current levels and at least until 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that the reaction of oil companies to high oil prices is understandable now. Their reduction in fossil fuel production is supported by environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment tycoons. Of course, the industry quickly realized that reducing spending was a good business, especially when everyone did it. Currently, only a handful of Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their spending on fossil fuels.</p><p>Javier noted that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand has peaked and declined rapidly. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fully reflected this.</p><p>Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to spend more quickly in the face of high oil prices. But after witnessing how profitable it can be to ignore the industry's old adage, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and a lower share price.</p><p>On Monday, US President Joe Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agree to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden's remarks as an olive branch thrown out to the fossil fuel industry, meaning a 180-degree shift in promises Biden made on the campaign trail.</p><p>However, Javier said a windfall tax could play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is not expected to be significant,<b>Because reducing the profitability of an industry by raising taxes does not encourage more spending. He</b>Argues that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the conversation, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors — America needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100967585","content_text":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加供应，最终压低商品价格。几个世纪以来，这一格言已被反复论证，一代又一代的金融学家和投资者对此深信不疑。大宗商品领域的每一次繁荣之后都紧随着萧条：如1896年克朗代克淘金热之后，1979年第二次石油危机期间，以及10年前美国最近一次页岩业繁荣之后。但彭博社能源和商品专栏作家哈维尔·布拉斯（Javier Blas） 撰文指出，这一格言似乎在石油市场失效了。可以肯定的是，原油价格上涨抑制了人们的需求。但等式的另一边——供给却没有发挥应有的作用。石油行业不再像以前那样用增加投资来回应高油价。这意味着，石油需求将成为重新平衡石油市场的全部动力。其结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企的持续时间比过去更长。石油行业在石油生产和勘探方面的支出（单位为10亿美元）为什么高油价对供给方面不起作用了？钱当然不是问题。大型石油公司今年经历了有史以来最好的六个月，4月到9月期间利润超过1000亿美元。埃克森美孚刚刚迎来其152年历史上表现最好的一个季度。该公司第三季度净利润达到惊人的196.6亿美元，远超华尔街已经上调之后的预期水平，且几乎比肩科技巨头苹果的利润水平。然而，由于包括贝莱德等机构投资者在内的股东要求石油公司控制支出，埃克森美孚及其竞争对手雪佛龙公司、壳牌公司、total energy SE和英国石油公司在报告巨额利润后仍没有宣布在原计划的基础上大幅增加支出，它们致力于将利润转化为股息和股票回购。过去，一些石油公司高管会试图在油价高企时尽快增加支出，增加产量，以争取在油价暴跌之前大赚一笔。如今，整个石油行业都面临股东要求保持节俭的压力。Javier评论道，这使美国石油行业几乎像一个卡特尔（垄断联盟），结果形成了类似的局面：即大型石油公司集体投资严重不足。去年，石油行业在石油勘探和生产上仅花费3050亿美元，远远低于满足截至2030年潜在石油需求所需的资金。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，从2022年到2030年，全球能源行业每年需要增加近50%（4660亿美元）的支出，以满足当前气候变化政策下的全球石油需求。即使各国政府实施了目前的气候战略和其他承诺，包括一些净零排放目标，投资支出仍需要在目前水平的基础上增长25%，且至少持续到2030年。Javier认为，石油公司现在对高油价的反应无可厚非，它们减少在化石燃料生产上的投入得到了环保慈善家和华尔街投资大佬的一致支持。当然，这个行业很快就意识到，减少支出反而是一笔好生意，尤其是在大家都这样做的情况下。目前，只有少数中东国有石油公司在有意义地增加化石燃料支出。Javier指出，石油行业一直在为一个石油需求见顶并迅速下降的世界做准备。但今天的世界不是这样的世界，甚至不久的将来也不会是。俄乌冲突已经充分反映了这一点。面对高油价，西方政府正试图迫使石油行业加快支出。但在目睹了无视这一行业的古老格言能带来多大利润后，石油业高管们更加不愿意合作。他们知道更多的支出意味着更低的利润和股价。本周一，美国总统拜登威胁称，除非石油公司同意提高石油产量和炼油水平，否则将对该行业征收更高的税。白宫官员把拜登的发言描述为向化石燃料行业抛出的橄榄枝，这意味着拜登在竞选时做出的承诺发生了180度转变。然而，Javier表示，暴利税可能会在谈判中发挥作用，但效果预计不大，因为通过提高税收降低一个行业的盈利能力并不能鼓励更多的支出。他认为，如果拜登想要更多的石油，他需要彻底重置对话，这意味着明确地告诉环保人士和华尔街投资者——美国现在就需要化石燃料。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984326429,"gmtCreate":1667541083861,"gmtModify":1676537934754,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984326429","repostId":"1142363855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984085225,"gmtCreate":1667489502668,"gmtModify":1676537926954,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"[疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984085225","repostId":"1116744518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116744518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667488509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116744518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-03 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Saudi Arabia and Foxconn to Build Ceer EV Brand with BMW Technologies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116744518","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to build the Ceer electric vehicle brand. The Saudi Ceer will attract $150 million in FDI and will create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Saudi Arabia and Foxconn to Build Ceer EV Brand with BMW Technologies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaudi Arabia and Foxconn to Build Ceer EV Brand with BMW Technologies\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-03 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to build the Ceer electric vehicle brand. The Saudi Ceer will attract $150 million in FDI and will create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef438c9fe438fca6fc47880dd89ad2e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116744518","content_text":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":329174626,"gmtCreate":1615217599565,"gmtModify":1704779766761,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","listText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","text":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329174626","repostId":"1132314005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132314005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615211001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132314005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to handle market declines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132314005","media":"Capital Group","summary":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demo","content":"<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p>\n<p>Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p>\n<p>But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p>\n<p><b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p>\n<p>Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p>\n<p>The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p>\n<p><b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p>\n<p>No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p>\n<p>Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p>\n<p>Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p>\n<p><b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p>\n<p>Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p>\n<p>Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p>\n<p>One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p>\n<p><b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p>\n<p>One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p>\n<p>Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p>\n<p><b>5. Diversification matters</b></p>\n<p>A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p>\n<p>For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p>\n<p><b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p>\n<p>Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p>\n<p>What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p>\n<p>Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p>\n<p><b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p>\n<p>Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p>\n<p>It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to handle market declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to handle market declines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-08 21:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html><strong>Capital Group</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132314005","content_text":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.\nBut smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.\n1. Market declines are part of investing\nStocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.\n\nThe Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.\n2. Time in the market matters, not market timing\nNo one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.\nEvery S&P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.\nEven missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.\n\n3. Emotional investing can be hazardous\nKahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.\nEmotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.\n\nOne way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.\n4. Make a plan and stick to it\nCreating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.\nOne way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.\n\nRetirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.\n5. Diversification matters\nA diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.\nFor investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.\n\n6. Fixed income can help bring balance\nStocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.\n\nWhat’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.\nThough bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.\n7. The market tends to reward long-term investors\nIs it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.\nIt’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.\n\nIt’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912654381,"gmtCreate":1664836871743,"gmtModify":1676537514358,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912654381","repostId":"2272077126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912351638,"gmtCreate":1664760372325,"gmtModify":1676537503485,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912351638","repostId":"1151044809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151044809","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1664757138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151044809?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Robots, America's richest man's new bet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151044809","media":"市界","summary":"马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released the assisted driving function, the best biography about its helm Musk, Silicon Valley Iron Man, was also born.</p><p>This biography, written three years ago, reveals a three-dimensional multi-faceted tech star. However, the first 18 months of writing made the author Ashley Vance tough, because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with the interview.</p><p>The turnaround occurred when Musk sent out an invitation to a dinner, after which Musk opened his world to Vance. A topic mentioned by Musk at the dinner is related to Tesla's new actions at present:</p><p>Larry Page, Musk's good friend and founder of Google, is building an army of artificial intelligence robots, and thinks that robots will always serve human beings. At that time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create evil things.</p><p>Musk used to be wary of robots, but now, his own robots are coming into reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new venture</b></p><p>On the Forbes Rich List released on September 27th, Musk topped the list of America's richest people with a net worth of $251 billion, far behind Amazon founder Bezos, who ranked second. However, the amount of wealth has become a simple number to some extent for individuals. What matters is what kind of things can be accomplished with wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new career map.</p><p>On October 1st, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the much-watched Optimus (Optimus Prime) humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus takes its name from the movie Transformers. According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift up to 20 kilograms of items.</p><p>The story originated in August 2021. At that time, Tesla held the first Artificial Intelligence Day, autonomous driving was the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that appeared at the end inspired the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At that time, Musk just came up with a concept, and then asked the staff to dress up as robots to show it. Even so, the applause was not absent. After all, Musk has successfully turned seemingly impossible things into reality many times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has really come into reality from concept.</p><p>The first prototype debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1st, Musk called it \"Bumble C (Hornet C)\". Compared with the previous concept, this prototype looks rather crude, with colorful cables and components exposed, and very slow movement.</p><p>On stage, though, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. And in the short video shown, you can see that it also learned to carry items and grab a kettle to water the flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Terra humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live broadcast on October 1st, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the Optimus prototype, which is closer to production, takes the stage. This one robot has improved significantly in appearance, and the cables are all packaged to look much cooler. Only it couldn't walk on its own, but was carried onto the stage by several crew members.</p><p>From electric cars to robots, it seems that Tesla is not doing its job properly. But in fact, it is precisely because of the accumulation of intelligent electric vehicles that Tesla's robots are paid more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla shows off the humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lurks an underlying logic of Tesla's entry into the robotics industry. With cars getting smarter, the arrival of \"automotive robots\" is no longer far off. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots just have no wheels.</p><p>In terms of automotive intelligence, Tesla has deep technological accumulation, especially autonomous driving technology ranks at the head. If these smart technologies can be migrated to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the potential to rise rapidly.</p><p>At the same time, the supply chain system of Tesla's electric vehicles is also its unique advantage. CITIC Jiantou pointed out that Tesla electric vehicles have three common characteristics: electric, mobile and intelligent, which determines that the two products can share many supply chains such as power batteries, thermal management systems, structural parts, sensors, motors, electronic controls and reducers.</p><p>Musk said in the question and answer session of this event that the experience of producing electric vehicles can help the construction of robots.</p><p>According to the positioning, Tesla humanoid robots were originally designed to do repetitive, boring and dangerous things instead of people, and their first job is likely to be to move items in Tesla factories. In the long run, it will be necessary to go into thousands of households and complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns and taking care of the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's expectation of Optimus is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many jobs.</p><p>Musk called humanoid robots Tesla's most important product development this year, predicting that the business could outweigh electric vehicles over time.</p><p>However, the development process of humanoid robots proves that the more powerful the robot is, the less likely it is to be popularized.</p><p><b>Long Evolution of Humanoid Robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, humans developed the imagination of robots. In Czech and American science fiction and anime works, robots are an omnipotent existence.</p><p>The research of humanoid robots started in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earlier countries to carry out relevant research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of humanoid robots\". In 1967, Kato Laboratories, founded by Ichiro Kato, launched the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-scale humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a big guy about 2 meters tall and weighs 160 kilograms. He has two hands and two legs like humans. It houses two cameras on the chest and tactile sensors on the hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on both feet, grasp and move objects with its hands, measure the distance from objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and can communicate verbally with humans.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that humanoid robots have a relatively complete prototype. On the basis of it, researchers began to explore in the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction ability of humanoid robots, and deeply develop some basic abilities.</p><p>For example, although early robots could walk on two legs like humans, they were very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is closer to human beings, and its moving speed reaches 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and smarter than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people, carry items everyday, and later evolved to learn to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots born in recent years, the skill of dancing is not new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou branch venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Gala, 540 robots selected by domestic startup company Youbi danced with singer Sun Nan. In the Spring Festival Gala of 2018, UBTECH STEM robots danced again at the guest round table. In the Spring Festival Gala of 2019, six Youbixuan robots made a collective appearance, and showed another Popping (shock dance).</p><p>But the most amazing performance was the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They are the peak of current humanoid robot research and development.</p><p>If ASIMO and UBTECH robots are novice dancers, then Atlas is a master dancer, and its natural smoothness far exceeds the former.</p><p>Not only that, but Atlas also learned to \"parkour\". It was able to rush up the steps quickly, run over \"single-plank bridges,\" jump between spaced-apart boxes, and even do enough to do backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots do backflips at the same time. Source: Screenshot of Boston Dynamics official website)</p><p>This development beyond ordinary people's cognition has made Atlas gain a great reputation. In contrast, Tesla's robot is far from shocking enough.</p><p>But the problem is that despite having the highest-level Atlas in the industry, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In past developments, Boston Dynamics changed owners three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control went to South Korea's Hyundai Motor.</p><p>Along with the transfer of control, Boston Dynamics' valuation has also plummeted. When Google bought, it was valued at $3 billion. By the time Hyundai took over, it was valued at just $1.1 billion.</p><p>The experience of Boston Dynamics reflects the key dilemma that limits the development of humanoid robots: even if these robots are technologically advanced and capable, the high R&D cost makes them difficult to commercialize, let alone go to the masses.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously traded by Google, which is also related to the differences in commercialization. Google wants to know about Boston Dynamics' technology and how it can be turned into consumer products. Boston Dynamics wants to develop more independently and is reluctant to think too much about commercialization.</p><p>In contrast, Musk clearly considered the question of how humanoid robots could become widespread. He claimed at the event that the difference between Tesla's design and other \"impressive humanoid robots\" is that the Optimus was built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Mass production can reduce costs, and only when the price is low enough, humanoid robots are likely to become popular.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of Optimus robot is about $30,000, far lower than the cost of Atlas of about $2 million, and lower than the cost of Tesla electric vehicle of $36,000.</p><p>Now Musk says the cost of Optimus will be reduced to under $20,000 after mass production.</p><p>If the plan goes well, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry. But even with the sharp price reduction, Optimus' appeal to ordinary consumers remains questionable.</p><p>An investment institutional partner who owns Tesla shares previously said investors weren't thrilled with Optimus, seeing little chance of such products working on a larger scale.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus is difficult to get rid of is that if it is just to complete certain specific tasks, such as carrying items and watering flowers for its demonstrations, then non-humanoid robots can also do it, and the latter can cost less.</p><p>In addition, a robotics expert mentioned before Tesla AI Day that don't trust Musk too much.</p><p><b>The Age of Adventure Robots</b></p><p>If we set aside the appearance and focus on the practical use, then although the capabilities are not amazing enough, robots that focus on serving humans in certain scenarios are more worthy of attention.</p><p>From this perspective, the actual human society is full of robots, but most of them don't appear in human form.</p><p>In the smart restaurant of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-brewed coffee and mix cocktails. In general shopping malls, robots can welcome guests and guide shopping. Robots in hospitals can operate surgeries, and robots in hotels can do cleaning and disinfection.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>As far as the development of the whole robotics industry is concerned, change is happening rapidly.</p><p>According to a report from Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US$20 billion by 2023. According to the data of China Electronics Society, the global service robot sales grew at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2016 to 2021, and the global market size is expected to reach 15.99 billion USD in 2022.</p><p>Amid the aging trend of the population and the shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to rise dramatically. Japan's vigorous development of the robot industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Back to Musk's quest. The research and development of humanoid robots has long been proven to be a difficult task. From the reveal of this plan in 2021 to this AI Day to show the progress of the project, whether Tesla's humanoid robot can be popularized on a large scale has been questioned.</p><p>As far as the current performance of Tesla robots is concerned, it is not bright. They have mastered skills that robots could have done before.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is certainly enticing. You can imagine what it would be like if robots had flexible joints and movement ability like humans, and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography of Silicon Valley Iron Man summarizes Musk's past, saying that what he experienced was an \"adventurous life\". Now, humanoid robots are a new adventure.</p><p>The result may not be smooth, but the risk is meaningful in itself.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robots, America's richest man's new bet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobots, America's richest man's new bet\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-03 08:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released the assisted driving function, the best biography about its helm Musk, Silicon Valley Iron Man, was also born.</p><p>This biography, written three years ago, reveals a three-dimensional multi-faceted tech star. However, the first 18 months of writing made the author Ashley Vance tough, because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with the interview.</p><p>The turnaround occurred when Musk sent out an invitation to a dinner, after which Musk opened his world to Vance. A topic mentioned by Musk at the dinner is related to Tesla's new actions at present:</p><p>Larry Page, Musk's good friend and founder of Google, is building an army of artificial intelligence robots, and thinks that robots will always serve human beings. At that time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create evil things.</p><p>Musk used to be wary of robots, but now, his own robots are coming into reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new venture</b></p><p>On the Forbes Rich List released on September 27th, Musk topped the list of America's richest people with a net worth of $251 billion, far behind Amazon founder Bezos, who ranked second. However, the amount of wealth has become a simple number to some extent for individuals. What matters is what kind of things can be accomplished with wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new career map.</p><p>On October 1st, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the much-watched Optimus (Optimus Prime) humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus takes its name from the movie Transformers. According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift up to 20 kilograms of items.</p><p>The story originated in August 2021. At that time, Tesla held the first Artificial Intelligence Day, autonomous driving was the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that appeared at the end inspired the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At that time, Musk just came up with a concept, and then asked the staff to dress up as robots to show it. Even so, the applause was not absent. After all, Musk has successfully turned seemingly impossible things into reality many times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has really come into reality from concept.</p><p>The first prototype debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1st, Musk called it \"Bumble C (Hornet C)\". Compared with the previous concept, this prototype looks rather crude, with colorful cables and components exposed, and very slow movement.</p><p>On stage, though, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. And in the short video shown, you can see that it also learned to carry items and grab a kettle to water the flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Terra humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live broadcast on October 1st, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the Optimus prototype, which is closer to production, takes the stage. This one robot has improved significantly in appearance, and the cables are all packaged to look much cooler. Only it couldn't walk on its own, but was carried onto the stage by several crew members.</p><p>From electric cars to robots, it seems that Tesla is not doing its job properly. But in fact, it is precisely because of the accumulation of intelligent electric vehicles that Tesla's robots are paid more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla shows off the humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lurks an underlying logic of Tesla's entry into the robotics industry. With cars getting smarter, the arrival of \"automotive robots\" is no longer far off. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots just have no wheels.</p><p>In terms of automotive intelligence, Tesla has deep technological accumulation, especially autonomous driving technology ranks at the head. If these smart technologies can be migrated to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the potential to rise rapidly.</p><p>At the same time, the supply chain system of Tesla's electric vehicles is also its unique advantage. CITIC Jiantou pointed out that Tesla electric vehicles have three common characteristics: electric, mobile and intelligent, which determines that the two products can share many supply chains such as power batteries, thermal management systems, structural parts, sensors, motors, electronic controls and reducers.</p><p>Musk said in the question and answer session of this event that the experience of producing electric vehicles can help the construction of robots.</p><p>According to the positioning, Tesla humanoid robots were originally designed to do repetitive, boring and dangerous things instead of people, and their first job is likely to be to move items in Tesla factories. In the long run, it will be necessary to go into thousands of households and complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns and taking care of the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's expectation of Optimus is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many jobs.</p><p>Musk called humanoid robots Tesla's most important product development this year, predicting that the business could outweigh electric vehicles over time.</p><p>However, the development process of humanoid robots proves that the more powerful the robot is, the less likely it is to be popularized.</p><p><b>Long Evolution of Humanoid Robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, humans developed the imagination of robots. In Czech and American science fiction and anime works, robots are an omnipotent existence.</p><p>The research of humanoid robots started in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earlier countries to carry out relevant research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of humanoid robots\". In 1967, Kato Laboratories, founded by Ichiro Kato, launched the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-scale humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a big guy about 2 meters tall and weighs 160 kilograms. He has two hands and two legs like humans. It houses two cameras on the chest and tactile sensors on the hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on both feet, grasp and move objects with its hands, measure the distance from objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and can communicate verbally with humans.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that humanoid robots have a relatively complete prototype. On the basis of it, researchers began to explore in the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction ability of humanoid robots, and deeply develop some basic abilities.</p><p>For example, although early robots could walk on two legs like humans, they were very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is closer to human beings, and its moving speed reaches 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and smarter than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people, carry items everyday, and later evolved to learn to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots born in recent years, the skill of dancing is not new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou branch venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Gala, 540 robots selected by domestic startup company Youbi danced with singer Sun Nan. In the Spring Festival Gala of 2018, UBTECH STEM robots danced again at the guest round table. In the Spring Festival Gala of 2019, six Youbixuan robots made a collective appearance, and showed another Popping (shock dance).</p><p>But the most amazing performance was the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They are the peak of current humanoid robot research and development.</p><p>If ASIMO and UBTECH robots are novice dancers, then Atlas is a master dancer, and its natural smoothness far exceeds the former.</p><p>Not only that, but Atlas also learned to \"parkour\". It was able to rush up the steps quickly, run over \"single-plank bridges,\" jump between spaced-apart boxes, and even do enough to do backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots do backflips at the same time. Source: Screenshot of Boston Dynamics official website)</p><p>This development beyond ordinary people's cognition has made Atlas gain a great reputation. In contrast, Tesla's robot is far from shocking enough.</p><p>But the problem is that despite having the highest-level Atlas in the industry, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In past developments, Boston Dynamics changed owners three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control went to South Korea's Hyundai Motor.</p><p>Along with the transfer of control, Boston Dynamics' valuation has also plummeted. When Google bought, it was valued at $3 billion. By the time Hyundai took over, it was valued at just $1.1 billion.</p><p>The experience of Boston Dynamics reflects the key dilemma that limits the development of humanoid robots: even if these robots are technologically advanced and capable, the high R&D cost makes them difficult to commercialize, let alone go to the masses.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously traded by Google, which is also related to the differences in commercialization. Google wants to know about Boston Dynamics' technology and how it can be turned into consumer products. Boston Dynamics wants to develop more independently and is reluctant to think too much about commercialization.</p><p>In contrast, Musk clearly considered the question of how humanoid robots could become widespread. He claimed at the event that the difference between Tesla's design and other \"impressive humanoid robots\" is that the Optimus was built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Mass production can reduce costs, and only when the price is low enough, humanoid robots are likely to become popular.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of Optimus robot is about $30,000, far lower than the cost of Atlas of about $2 million, and lower than the cost of Tesla electric vehicle of $36,000.</p><p>Now Musk says the cost of Optimus will be reduced to under $20,000 after mass production.</p><p>If the plan goes well, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry. But even with the sharp price reduction, Optimus' appeal to ordinary consumers remains questionable.</p><p>An investment institutional partner who owns Tesla shares previously said investors weren't thrilled with Optimus, seeing little chance of such products working on a larger scale.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus is difficult to get rid of is that if it is just to complete certain specific tasks, such as carrying items and watering flowers for its demonstrations, then non-humanoid robots can also do it, and the latter can cost less.</p><p>In addition, a robotics expert mentioned before Tesla AI Day that don't trust Musk too much.</p><p><b>The Age of Adventure Robots</b></p><p>If we set aside the appearance and focus on the practical use, then although the capabilities are not amazing enough, robots that focus on serving humans in certain scenarios are more worthy of attention.</p><p>From this perspective, the actual human society is full of robots, but most of them don't appear in human form.</p><p>In the smart restaurant of the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-brewed coffee and mix cocktails. In general shopping malls, robots can welcome guests and guide shopping. Robots in hospitals can operate surgeries, and robots in hotels can do cleaning and disinfection.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>As far as the development of the whole robotics industry is concerned, change is happening rapidly.</p><p>According to a report from Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US$20 billion by 2023. According to the data of China Electronics Society, the global service robot sales grew at a compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2016 to 2021, and the global market size is expected to reach 15.99 billion USD in 2022.</p><p>Amid the aging trend of the population and the shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to rise dramatically. Japan's vigorous development of the robot industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Back to Musk's quest. The research and development of humanoid robots has long been proven to be a difficult task. From the reveal of this plan in 2021 to this AI Day to show the progress of the project, whether Tesla's humanoid robot can be popularized on a large scale has been questioned.</p><p>As far as the current performance of Tesla robots is concerned, it is not bright. They have mastered skills that robots could have done before.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is certainly enticing. You can imagine what it would be like if robots had flexible joints and movement ability like humans, and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography of Silicon Valley Iron Man summarizes Musk's past, saying that what he experienced was an \"adventurous life\". Now, humanoid robots are a new adventure.</p><p>The result may not be smooth, but the risk is meaningful in itself.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d5fe89154533692581a94460e63d11","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151044809","content_text":"文/李楠特斯拉正式发布辅助驾驶功能的2015年，关于其掌舵者马斯克的最好一本传记《硅谷钢铁侠》也诞生了。这本传记写了三年，揭示了一个立体多面的科技明星。然而写作的前18个月让作者阿什利·万斯倍感艰辛，因为马斯克本人不愿配合采访。转机发生于马斯克发出的一次晚宴邀请，之后马斯克向万斯开放了自己的世界。晚宴中马斯克提到的一个话题，正与眼下特斯拉的新动作有关：马斯克的好朋友、谷歌创始人拉里·佩奇，正在建造人工智能机器人大军，并认为机器人会永远服务于人类，彼时的马斯克则忧虑，佩奇可能会不小心制造出邪恶的东西。马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。马斯克的新事业在9月27日发布的福布斯富豪榜上，马斯克以2510亿美元的身家登顶美国富豪榜首，远远甩开身居第二名的亚马逊创始人贝索斯。但天量财富对个人而言，某种程度上已经成了单纯的数字。重要的是，用财富做成什么样的事情。马斯克开辟了事业新版图。北京时间10月1日，在特斯拉的“2022 AI Day”上，备受关注的Optimus（擎天柱）人形机器人原型机终于亮相。Optimus的名字来源于电影《变形金刚》。根据之前设定的参数，其身高约1米72，体重约57公斤，行走速度每小时8公里，最多可以提起20公斤重的物品。故事起源于2021年8月。当时特斯拉举办了第一届人工智能日，自动驾驶是活动重点，最后出场的人形机器人则激发了普罗大众的好奇心。当时马斯克仅仅拿出了一个概念，再让工作人员打扮成机器人的样子做了一番展示。即便如此，掌声没有缺席。毕竟把看似不可能的事情变成现实，马斯克已经成功多次。而现在，马斯克的\"新宠\"从概念真正走入现实。在10月1日的人工智能日上登场的第一台原型机，马斯克称之为\"Bumble C（大黄蜂 C）\"。相比之前的概念，这台原型机看起来相当简陋，彩色的线缆和元器件裸露在外，动作也非常迟缓。不过在舞台上，它完成了稳定的行走，并向人们挥手致意。而在展示的短视频中，可以看到它还学会了搬运物品，抓起水壶给花浇水。（特拉人形机器人原型机Bumble C。来源：北京时间10月1日特斯拉直播）之后，更接近生产的Optimus原型机登台。这一台机器人在外观上有了明显进步，线缆都被包装好，看起来酷炫得多。只是它不能自己行走，而是被几位工作人员搬上了舞台。从电动车到机器人，似乎特斯拉有些不务正业。但实际上，正因为有智能电动车的积累，才让特斯拉的机器人更受重视。（特斯拉展示人形机器人原型机Optimus。来源：特斯拉直播）这里潜伏着特斯拉进军机器人产业的一条底层逻辑。随着汽车越来越智能，“汽车机器人”的到来已经不再遥远。在马斯克眼中，特斯拉电动车是有轮子的机器人，而人形机器人只是没有了轮子而已。在汽车智能化方面，特斯拉具备深厚的技术积累，尤其自动驾驶技术位居头部。如果这些智能技术可以迁移到机器人上，那么特斯拉的人形机器人就有了快速崛起的可能。同时特斯拉电动车的供应链体系，也是其独特优势。中信建投指出，特斯拉电动车具有电动、可移动、智能化三大共同特点，这就决定了两大产品可以共享动力电池、热管理系统、结构件、传感器、电机、电控、减速机等很多供应链。马斯克在此次活动的问答环节表示，生产电动车的经验，可以帮助到机器人的构建。按照定位，特斯拉人形机器人最初是替代人们做一些重复、无聊又危险的事，它们的第一份工作很有可能是在特斯拉工厂里移动物品。长远来看，则要走进千家万户，完成做饭、修草坪、照顾老人等任务。概括而言，马斯克对Optimus的期许是一种通用机器人，可以把人从许多工作中解放出来。马斯克称，人形机器人是特斯拉今年最重要的产品研发，并预测，随着时间推移，这项业务的重要性可能超过电动汽车。但人形机器人的发展过程证明，越是能力强大的机器人，越不容易普及。人形机器人漫长进化大约一百年前，人类便产生了关于机器人的想象。在捷克与美国的科幻和动漫作品中，机器人是无所不能的一种存在。人形机器人的研究，则在20世纪60年代后期起步。日本是较早开展相关研究的国家之一。早稻田大学教授加藤一郎被视为“仿人形机器人之父”。1967年，由加藤一郎创建的加藤实验室启动了WABOT项目。五年后，世界上第一个全尺寸人形“智能”机器人WABOT-1诞生。这是一个身高约2米、体重160公斤的大家伙，和人类一样拥有两只手、两条腿。它的胸部装有两个摄像头，手部还装有触觉传感器。(WABOT-1。来源：早稻田大学)它可以用双脚走路，用手抓住并移动物体，通过视觉和声学传感器，测量与物体之间距离，并且可以跟人类进行语言上的交流。WABOT-1的出现，意味着人形机器人具备了较完备的雏形，在它的基础上，研究人员开始向智能化方向探索，研究人形机器人的自主控制与交互能力，并深入发展一些基础能力。比如，早期的机器人虽然能像人一样用两足行走，但速度很慢。后来的机器人则学会了奔跑。代表产品之一，是ASIMO。这是一款诞生在2000年的机器人，由丰田研发，其外表更接近人类，且移动速度达到了每小时6公里。同时，ASIMO比之前的机器人更为灵活和聪明。它可以跟人手拉手一起走路，还能进行日常的物品搬运，后来不断进化，又学会了单腿跳跃和跳舞。对近些年诞生的人形机器人来说，跳舞的技能早已不新鲜。2016年春晚的广州分会场，国内创业公司优必选的540台机器人为歌手孙楠伴舞。2018年的春晚，优必选STEM机器人在嘉宾圆桌上再次起舞。2019年春晚，6台优必选机器人集体亮相，又秀了一把Popping（震感舞）。但表现最惊艳的是波士顿动力推出的Atlas。它们是当前人形机器人研发的高峰。如果说ASIMO和优必选机器人的表现是跳舞新手，那Atlas就是跳舞高手，其动作之自然流畅远超前者。不仅如此，Atlas还学会了“跑酷”。它能够快速冲上台阶，跑过“独木桥”，在隔开的箱子间跳跃，甚至做够做后空翻。(两位Atlas机器人同时做后空翻。来源：波士顿动力官网截图)这种超越常人认知的发展，让Atlas收获了极大的美誉。相比之下，特斯拉推出的机器人远不够震撼。但问题在于，尽管拥有业内水平最高的Atlas，波士顿动力不被资本市场看好。在过去的发展中，波士顿动力三易其主：2014年被谷歌收购，2017年被软银收购，2020年，它的控制权又到了韩国现代汽车的手上。伴随控制权的转移，波士顿动力的估值也大幅下降。谷歌买入的时候，估值是30亿美元。到现代接手，估值仅剩11亿美元。波士顿动力的遭遇，反映出了限制人形机器人发展的关键困局：即便这些机器人技术先进，能力强大，但高昂的研发成本，让它们难以商业化，更不要说走向大众。事实上，波士顿动力此前被谷歌交易，与商业化方面的分歧也有关系。谷歌方面希望了解波士顿动力的技术，以及如何将这些技术转化为消费类产品。而波士顿动力希望更独立地发展，不愿过多考虑商业化问题。相比之下，马斯克显然考虑了人形机器人如何普及的问题。他在此次活动中声称，特斯拉的设计与其他“令人印象深刻的人形机器人”的不同在于，Optimus是为“数百万”单位的大规模生产而制造。大规模量产可以压低成本，而只有价格足够低，人形机器人才有可能普及。据浙商证券早先报告，Optimus机器人的成本约3万美元，远远低于Atlas约200万美元的成本，且低于特斯拉电动车3.6万美元的单车成本。现在马斯克表示，Optimus量产后的成本会降低到2万美元以下。如果计划顺利，那么人形机器人产业可能随特斯拉的入局而加速发展。但即便价格大幅降低，Optimus在普通消费者眼中的吸引力依旧存疑。一位持有特斯拉股票的投资机构合伙人此前表示，投资者对Optimus并不感到兴奋，认为这类产品在更大范围内发挥作用的可能性很小。Optimus很难摆脱的一个根本问题是，如果只是为了完成某些特定任务，比如它做演示的搬运物品、给花浇水，那么非人形的机器人同样可以完成，且后者的成本可以更低。另外有机器人专家在特斯拉人工智能日之前提到，不要过度相信马斯克。探险机器人时代如果撇开外表，着眼于实际用途，那么能力虽然不够惊艳，但专注于在某些场景为人类服务的机器人，更值得关注。从这个视角来看，实际人类社会已经遍布机器人了，只是绝大部分没有以人的外形出现。北京冬奥会的智慧餐厅里，机器人能烹调中餐西餐，做手冲咖啡，调鸡尾酒。一般商场里，机器人可以进行迎宾和导购。医院的机器人可以操作手术，酒店里的机器人可以做清洁和消毒。（北京冬奥会智慧餐厅）比尔·盖茨曾说：我们总是高估未来2年会发生的改变，低估了未来10年将发生的变化。就整个机器人产业的发展而言，变革在快速发生。据浙商证券报告，全球服务机器人市场规模稳定增长，预计到2023年突破200亿美元。中国电子学会数据显示，2016-2021年全球服务机器人销售额的复合年均增长率为24%，预计2022年全球市场规模将达159.9亿美元。在人口老龄化趋势和劳动力资源短缺的情况下，人类对机器人的需求注定大幅上涨。日本大力发展机器人产业，就与此有关。可以说，一个被机器人深刻改变的时代已经拉开帷幕。人类需要机器人。回到马斯克的探索上。人形机器人的研发，早被证明是吃力难讨好的事情。从2021年透露这方面计划，到这一次人工智能日展示项目进展，特斯拉人形机器人能否大规模普及一直受到质疑。就眼下特斯拉机器人的表现来看，也谈不上亮眼。它们掌握的技能，之前已经有机器人可以做到。但人形机器人的前景的确充满诱惑。可以想象，如果机器人具备了像人一样灵活的关节和运动能力，而且大规模出现在人们的生活中，会是怎样一番景象。《硅谷钢铁侠》这本传记概括马斯克的过往，说他所经历的是一场\"冒险人生\"。现在，人形机器人成了一次新的冒险。结果未必顺利，不过冒险本身就是意义。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916889695,"gmtCreate":1664555630017,"gmtModify":1676537477021,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916889695","repostId":"1128663550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128663550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664551396,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128663550?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 23:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128663550","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此中止为上市审核流程中的正常操作，对有关拟上市各项工作无不良影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 30th, the information disclosure of Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Semiconductor Co., Ltd. needs to submit supplementary information because the financial information recorded in the IPO registration application documents has expired. According to the relevant provisions of Article 29 of the Administrative Measures for Registration of Initial Public Offering of Shares on GEM (Trial), its issuance registration procedure is suspended.</p><p>BYD responded that it was actively promoting related work, completing the update of financial information as soon as possible, and resuming the issuance registration procedure. BYD pointed out that this suspension is a normal operation in the listing review process, and has no adverse impact on all the work related to the proposed listing. For details and follow-up progress, please pay attention to the information disclosure website of GEM issuance and listing audit of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-30 23:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 30th, the information disclosure of Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Semiconductor Co., Ltd. needs to submit supplementary information because the financial information recorded in the IPO registration application documents has expired. According to the relevant provisions of Article 29 of the Administrative Measures for Registration of Initial Public Offering of Shares on GEM (Trial), its issuance registration procedure is suspended.</p><p>BYD responded that it was actively promoting related work, completing the update of financial information as soon as possible, and resuming the issuance registration procedure. BYD pointed out that this suspension is a normal operation in the listing review process, and has no adverse impact on all the work related to the proposed listing. For details and follow-up progress, please pay attention to the information disclosure website of GEM issuance and listing audit of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"00285":"比亚迪电子","002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128663550","content_text":"9月30日，深交所信息披露显示，比亚迪半导体股份有限公司因IPO注册申请文件中记载的财务资料已过有效期，需要补充提交，根据《创业板首次公开发行股票注册管理办法（试行）》第二十九条的相关规定，其发行注册程序中止。比亚迪方面回应称正在积极推进相关工作，尽快完成财务资料更新，恢复发行注册程序。比亚迪方面指出，此中止为上市审核流程中的正常操作，对有关拟上市各项工作无不良影响。具体详情及后续进展请关注深圳证券交易所创业板发行上市审核信息公开网站。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00285":0.9,"01211":0.9,"002594":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Survived\"! Sun Hongbin and other tens of billions of rescue\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The real estate tycoon who is caught in financial difficulties can come alive again.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a white knight in the limelight, took over two luxury housing projects, Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International, from Oceanwide Lu Zhiqiang, who was mired in the mud at that time, at a total price of 14.9 billion yuan. Both of these projects are the existence of top luxury houses in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-clothed knight now needed a white-clothed knight to save him. These two luxury housing projects have become the breakthrough of Sunac's debt restructuring after six months of accident.</p><p>On November 28th, industrial and commercial information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% equity of Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with the shareholding ratio of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the above two luxury projects. With the intervention of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects worth tens of billions of goods will also be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>A state-owned AMC person told Wall Street that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By obtaining the controlling interest in the project, the Group can isolate the risks from the Group and ensure the sustainable development of the project. This is also in line with the relevant spirit of the recently issued \"Sixteen Financial Articles\", such as encouraging financial institutions to distinguish project and group risks, and encouraging asset management products such as trusts to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate.</p><p>However, obtaining the controlling stake is not to control the company, but to provide financing, and the project is still operated by Sunac's team.</p><p>According to a source, this time, CITIC Department will bring 8 billion yuan of funds to provide liquidity support.</p><p>With the entry of incremental funds, the project can roll, which is also good for Sunac's debt repayment. After paying off the corresponding debts, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac's assets, similar to the previous cooperation between CITIC Bank and CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa's assets with a value of over 50 billion goods. They acquired the project equity and injected funds, so that the project company could gradually resume normal operation and restore its hematopoietic capacity.</p><p>The choice of these two projects is also because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC person said that the two projects of Sunac were of good quality. At that time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted in the open market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. Sun Hongbin painstakingly negotiated and mediated the matters for several months, and it has also been settled. And it is the revitalization of tens of billions of assets at once.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate bosses who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has successively withdrawn nearly 40 billion yuan of funds through the sale of shell equity, rights issue, interest-free loans from major shareholders and asset disposal. However, since the beginning of this year, the market has unexpectedly declined, which still made him fall in May.</p><p>People close to Sun Hongbin said that in the past six months, Lao Sun has hardly been in the office, and has been running around, just to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, Sun Hongbin, who has been running around for more than half a year, finally ushered in the rescue of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still have a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street also learned that Sunac and the creditor group are currently communicating the preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have also expressed support for Sunac's debt restructuring. It is expected that the restructuring plan will be announced within this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29th), Sunac also announced its 2021 performance forecast. This is a basic element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually coming out of their current predicament.</p><p>According to Kerui data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with a sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it a rare private housing enterprise in the top ten miles outside Country Garden and Longhu. At the same time, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, if you want to resume trading, Sunac still needs to solve the problem of overseas liquidation litigation. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, and the creditors withdrew their liquidation petition. With the intervention of CITIC Department in the revitalization of Sunac's assets, I believe investors can also find suitable solutions with Sunac.</p><p>All kinds of signs show that Sun Hongbin, a big boss famous for his boldness and courage in the real estate industry, has gradually regained his vitality after several months of silence. Next, it is to promote a number of projects to \"come alive\" through the revitalization of Dongjiadu project. At the same time, it is to further obtain the support of creditors, reach a debt restructuring plan, and exchange time for space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial circles are paying close attention to Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, a big boss who once fell and was reborn in Sunco stage, can stage a miracle of \"resurrection from the dead\" in Sunac. He and this company can be rejuvenated after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989226753,"gmtCreate":1666021029372,"gmtModify":1676537693585,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989226753","repostId":"1196156325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196156325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666018983,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196156325?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 23:03","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"UK Tax Cuts U-Turn!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196156325","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特","content":"<p><div>British government bonds, currencies and stocks began to rise on October 17th local time as the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed British Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turnaround after days of turmoil in British politics and markets. Hunt announced on the 17th that he had cancelled debt-driven tax cuts to further calm market turmoil, another major shift for the British government, AFP reported. \"We will reverse almost all of the tax measures we announced three weeks ago.\" Hunt said in a televised address, \"Our country's most important goal right now is stability.\" Also according to the...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UK Tax Cuts U-Turn!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUK Tax Cuts U-Turn!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国际金融报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-17 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>British government bonds, currencies and stocks began to rise on October 17th local time as the new British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed British Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turnaround after days of turmoil in British politics and markets. Hunt announced on the 17th that he had cancelled debt-driven tax cuts to further calm market turmoil, another major shift for the British government, AFP reported. \"We will reverse almost all of the tax measures we announced three weeks ago.\" Hunt said in a televised address, \"Our country's most important goal right now is stability.\" Also according to the...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05bdf200c4138336b0f7e4174ef1a988","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196156325","content_text":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特于17日宣布取消了由债务推动的减税政策，以进一步平息市场动荡，这是英国政府的又一次重大转变。“我们将撤销三周前宣布的几乎所有税收措施。”亨特在电视讲话中说，“我们国家目前最重要的目标是稳定。”另据《华尔街日报》报道，亨特实际上放弃了首相特拉斯的标志性减税计划。亨特表示，为了恢复市场对英国经济的信心，有些税需要上调，公共开支需要削减。他认为，特拉斯举债支持减税来促进增长的计划是个错误。报道指出，这些自20世纪70年代以来最大规模的减税措施使市场“受到惊吓”，令保守党在民调中的支持率陡降。“通过增加借款和债务来为减税提供资金的做法行不通。”亨特说，“减税的前提是，政府能够负担得起相关资金。”声明发布后，英镑对美元汇率一度飙升1.4%至盘中高点，最后上涨不到1%，对欧元汇率则略低，与公告发布前大致相同。伦敦当日的富时100指数上涨0.5%，关注英国国内中型股的富时250指数表现优于欧洲同行，上涨1%。目前，市场对亨特的声明虽反应积极，但仍有声音担忧，该声明能否得到政府或保守党的支持？政策连续转弯，也让英国首相特拉斯的执政信誉受到重创，部分议员据称正在酝酿“逼宫”。“几乎所有减税措施被逆转”英国天空新闻网报道称，亨特在一份声明表示，在“迷你预算”政策中的“几乎所有”减税措施都被取消了。据报道，亨特取消了从明年4月起将个人所得税基本税率从20%下调至19%的计划。他说，基本税率将无限期地保持在20%，直到经济环境允许下调为止。亨特表示，没有哪个政府能够控制市场，但它可以为公共财政提供确定性。他说，他宣布的计划将在本月底全面财政计划公布之前避免不确定性，这将带来信心和稳定。能源方面，亨特称，措施中最大的单项支出是能源价格保障，这是一项里程碑式的政策，支持数百万人度过一个艰难的冬天。从明年4月开始，财政部将牵头进行一项评估，研究如何帮助家庭和企业解决能源账单问题。能源价格保障将于明年4月结束。他说：“我们的目标是设计一种新的方法，既节省纳税人的钱，又把援助的目标对准那些最需要帮助的人。”报道称，市场对亨特的声明反应积极，英镑兑美元延续了早盘的涨势。该声明还导致英国政府债券的利率(或收益率)下降，降低了政府借款的成本。英国广播公司(BBC)经济学编辑称，该声明不同寻常，这或许标志着英国经济史上最大的180度大转弯。该声明应该有助于恢复经济信誉，但这是一个如此大的政治转变，以至于人们怀疑整个内阁、政府和保守党是否会支持它，但这位新财政大臣要传达的信息是：别无选择。特拉斯能否度过危机？路透社称，该声明比原计划提前两周，亨特正在努力阻止投资者对特拉斯领导的政府信心急剧下降。自前不久接替被解职的克沃滕以来，亨特一直在努力改写特拉斯的经济计划。英国《金融时报》17日报道称，亨特承认，特拉斯政府9月出台的“迷你预算”政策“走得太远、太快”。他还批评前任克沃滕犯了两个重大“错误”，并称相关两项措施正在“被纠正”。目前，英国民众饱受通胀之苦，家庭能源账单将飙升至历史最高水平。分析人士指出，在物价全面上涨、民众生活成本飙升的背景下，政府大规模的减税措施将进一步刺激英国的通胀率。英国一位高级官员表示，“特拉斯做的显然还不够，接下来还会有更多的掉头和更多的痛苦。我不认为他们意识到了情况可能会变得更糟。”《金融时报》指出，任何更多的政府政策掉头都很可能进一步危及首相的地位。一些资深议会议员预测，她将难以渡过当前危机。有英媒指出，超100名保守党议员已经准备好本周提交针对特拉斯的不信任案。9月23日，英国政府宣布该国50年来最大规模减税措施，但却引发市场动荡，饱受外界质疑和批评。重重压力之下，英国政府的减税措施于10月3日出现重大转折，政府宣布放弃取消最高所得税税率计划。仅10余天的时间，英国政府又做出重大政策调整。特拉斯14日宣布，将保留上届政府宣布的公司税上调计划，而她在保守党党魁竞选中曾承诺将取消该增长。她还炒掉了亨特的前任克沃滕，但特拉斯未能借助这些举措来安抚市场。在她匆匆举行为时大约8分钟的唐宁街新闻发布会后，英国国债市场遭遇新一轮抛售，减税计划所引发的动荡仍在持续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBPmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036272693,"gmtCreate":1647134772940,"gmtModify":1676534196941,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036272693","repostId":"1177231006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177231006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646635096,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177231006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier in summer time on the 13th in the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177231006","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summer Time 2022 in the United States will start at 02: 00 EST on March 13, 2022 and end at 02: 00 EST on November 6, 2022. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, it will become from 21: 30 from Monday to Friday to 04: 00 the next day. March 14th is the first trading day of U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>US Eastern Time: 09:30~16:00 (not closed at noon); Beijing time: 21: 30~04: 00 the next day (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04: 00~09: 30; Beijing Time: 16:00~21:30 (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00~20:00; Beijing Time: 04: 00~08: 00 (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier in summer time on the 13th in the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour earlier in summer time on the 13th in the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-07 14:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summer Time 2022 in the United States will start at 02: 00 EST on March 13, 2022 and end at 02: 00 EST on November 6, 2022. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, it will become from 21: 30 from Monday to Friday to 04: 00 the next day. March 14th is the first trading day of U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>US Eastern Time: 09:30~16:00 (not closed at noon); Beijing time: 21: 30~04: 00 the next day (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04: 00~09: 30; Beijing Time: 16:00~21:30 (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00~20:00; Beijing Time: 04: 00~08: 00 (Daylight Saving Time, March ~ early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177231006","content_text":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899621104,"gmtCreate":1628179742708,"gmtModify":1703502760385,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899621104","repostId":"1177628375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177628375","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628175372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177628375?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to pull up, hitting a record high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177628375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV","content":"<p>On Thursday, U.S. mobile payment businesses<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>After the opening, it continued to rise, rising by more than 6% as of press time, hitting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Recently, the company published its second quarter financial report in advance. Total net revenue increased more than 143%, gross profit increased 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and total transaction payments (GPV) increased 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, with one revenue from Bitcoin reaching $2.72 billion.</p><p>In addition, Square also announced the acquisition of Afterpay, an Australian financial payment company, for $29 billion. This is Square's biggest acquisition to date. Not only does it expand its consumer market, but it is also a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue exploring the U.S. market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to pull up, hitting a record high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"North American Alipay\" Square continues to pull up, hitting a record high\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, U.S. mobile payment businesses<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>After the opening, it continued to rise, rising by more than 6% as of press time, hitting a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Recently, the company published its second quarter financial report in advance. Total net revenue increased more than 143%, gross profit increased 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and total transaction payments (GPV) increased 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, with one revenue from Bitcoin reaching $2.72 billion.</p><p>In addition, Square also announced the acquisition of Afterpay, an Australian financial payment company, for $29 billion. This is Square's biggest acquisition to date. Not only does it expand its consumer market, but it is also a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue exploring the U.S. market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c35001aff2d0c88ed509c6e83cf2e54","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177628375","content_text":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV）增长88%达到428亿美元。包括比特币在内的总营收为46.8亿美元，其中比特币一项收入达到27.2亿美元。\n此外，Square还宣布以290亿美元的价格收购澳洲金融支付公司Afterpay。这是迄今为止Square最大的一笔收购，不仅为自己扩大了消费者市场，对Afterpay继续开拓美国市场无疑也是个好机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362362147,"gmtCreate":1614598404689,"gmtModify":1704772860919,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looking forward to long term","listText":"looking forward to long term","text":"looking forward to long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362362147","repostId":"1161169607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161169607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614584947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161169607?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161169607","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yiel","content":"<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd3fa48c3856c9963ae7e9f6e6de625\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"232\">It's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"<b>the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>First, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Predictably,<i><b>Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"</b></i>with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So what<i><b>would</b></i>cause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"<b>keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"</b>But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdbd39d9b2a4e20ee8ef423435a57d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"169\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Second, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Addressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast that<b>S&amp;P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.</b>In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Third, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,<b>but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.</b>Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a23015dc5dbaee1d4660e8e902a000\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"175\">Of course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications for<i><b>rotations within the equity market,</b></i>a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,<b>this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.</b>Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&amp;P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.</p>\n<p>As Kostin writes, \"<b>this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"</b>One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is that<b>a basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.</b>The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.</p>\n<p>To be sure, while earnings for S&amp;P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,<b>the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.</b>In fact,<b>1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.</b></p>\n<p>Getting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.<b>But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"</b>Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"<b>those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672e0f0b03d6b3cec8ec067276919bf9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"171\"><b>Recently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.</b>The cyclical and virus-affected firms with<b>negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.</b>Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,<b>the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.</b>Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00a42075ac35763072cb85546315087\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\">Putting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"<b>looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"</b>The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b2dbfc010259d8bc5120f85d13070\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"364\">And although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes that<b>those stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.</b></p>\n<p>Which brings us to the other side of the table: the<b>chart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021</b>. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e14fcedd553203d06c6a3639a17f8f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161169607","content_text":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.\nIt's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"\n\nFirst, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.\n\nPredictably,Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So whatwouldcause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.\n\n\nSecond, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.\n\nAddressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast thatS&P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.\n\nThird, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.\n\nAs the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.\nOf course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications forrotations within the equity market,a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November\nWhich brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.\nAs Kostin writes, \"this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is thata basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.\nTo be sure, while earnings for S&P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.In fact,1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.\nGetting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"\nRecently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.The cyclical and virus-affected firms withnegative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.\nPutting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:\nAnd although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes thatthose stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.\nWhich brings us to the other side of the table: thechart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929245153,"gmtCreate":1670687391372,"gmtModify":1676538417414,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored warnings — from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the upset of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be starting to bet that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to maintain above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now turned gloomy, fearing that if the Fed does slow the pace of rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. US services shrank last month; While the labour market remains strong, there has also been some weakness, with recent increases in initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked but remains high enough to keep the Fed on alert, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>\"We're going to move from 'bad data is good news' to 'bad data is bad news' because it's a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect,\" said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view the barrage of depressing economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason to rise from the prospect of easing policy by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-evidenced by the exceeding-expectation growth of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, that's enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three selloffs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred shares on raw material producers. More economy-sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. In all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak earlier in 2022, when the inflation scare raged, bonds tumbled. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% over the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you are buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, it means that economic weakness will also come at some point in the future. So you have to be careful when you make a wish.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a decidedly pessimistic decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close next year at 4,009, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global equity markets at the fastest pace in five months, dumping $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared with $23 billion they hoarded a week earlier, EPFR data shows. Signals of volatility also reinforce the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting conditions such as before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that spurred buying in November retreated this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs Group indicator, casting doubt on the Fed's ability to shift to easy policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers seem determined to bring rate hike to a peak of around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We have seen little of the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed pigeon ≠ US stocks rise? Markets are starting to worry about the recession storm\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored warnings — from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the upset of a sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now appear to be starting to bet that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks sent the S&P 500 down 3.4% this week after it failed to maintain above its average price over the past 200 days. Although optimism that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hike has pushed U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now turned gloomy, fearing that if the Fed does slow the pace of rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. growth is slowing amid aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. US services shrank last month; While the labour market remains strong, there has also been some weakness, with recent increases in initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked but remains high enough to keep the Fed on alert, raising the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>\"We're going to move from 'bad data is good news' to 'bad data is bad news' because it's a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect,\" said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view the barrage of depressing economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason to rise from the prospect of easing policy by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, inflation in the United States remains high-evidenced by the exceeding-expectation growth of PPI in the United States in November. Taken together, that's enough to suppress the rally since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks led the decline since stocks peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three selloffs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred shares on raw material producers. More economy-sensitive companies, such as financial firms and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged in December.</p><p>The shift is also evident in the fixed income space. In all three instances when the S&P 500 fell at least 10% from its peak earlier in 2022, when the inflation scare raged, bonds tumbled. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as a recession hedge. Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose on Wednesday, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield falling below 3.5%, its lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has gained 9% over the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you are buying stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, it means that economic weakness will also come at some point in the future. So you have to be careful when you make a wish.\"</p><p>In recent days, this message has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the outlook for U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings. Even sell-side analysts, who tend to tout the assets they sell, have been predicting a decidedly pessimistic decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close next year at 4,009, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also show that investors are moving away from risky assets. Investors pulled out of global equity markets at the fastest pace in five months, dumping $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared with $23 billion they hoarded a week earlier, EPFR data shows. Signals of volatility also reinforce the transient nature of the recent rally, reflecting conditions such as before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>The level of technical indicators that spurred buying in November retreated this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average before falling below pullback/retracement levels that helped bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Further complicating matters, November's stock market rally triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs Group indicator, casting doubt on the Fed's ability to shift to easy policy starting next year.</p><p>After being trapped by the intensity and staying power of inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers seem determined to bring rate hike to a peak of around 5%. That's bad news for an economy that will contract sometime next year.</p><p>Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial, said: \"There is still a lot of pain to go through. We have seen little of the lag effect of this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}