zh2021 personal page - To The Moon

zh2021

zh2021

No personal profile

687Follow

19Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2021-03-08

all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them

How to handle market declines

2022-10-04

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-03

[微笑]

Robots, the new bet of America's richest man

2022-10-01

[微笑]

BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible

2022-12-01

[微笑]

They "survived"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.

2022-10-17

[微笑]

A major turn in UK tax cut policy!

2022-03-13

up

Reminder: On the 13th, US daylight saving time, US stocks opened one hour earlier.

2021-08-06

?

Square, the "North American Alipay," continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.

2021-03-01

looking forward to long term

Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers

2022-12-10

[惊讶]

Does a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574387078391491","uuid":"3574387078391491","gmtCreate":1611293055091,"gmtModify":1614516373823,"name":"zh2021","pinyin":"zh2021","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":19,"headSize":687,"tweetSize":683,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.78%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981-2","templateUuid":"cbe1c45c584340f3bd9ae6c77e0e9981","name":"Academy Explorer","description":"20 lessons learned","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63cc10a4789c3eaa019b225a55136cf9","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b1f0cbf3ae1b0a4593ddb3434df74ce0","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.30","exceedPercentage":"80.86%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":9923939964,"gmtCreate":1670772901459,"gmtModify":1676538430870,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923939964","repostId":"1130128155","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929245153,"gmtCreate":1670687391372,"gmtModify":1676538417414,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Does a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored various warnings—from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the collapse of the sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now seem to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall 3.4% this week after the index failed to hold above its 200-day average. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve would slow down rate hike had driven U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now soured, with concerns that if the Fed does indeed slow down rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing under the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies. The U.S. service sector contracted last month; Although the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with the number of first-time unemployment claims increasing recently. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but it remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve on guard, increasing the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: “We will shift from ‘bad data is good news’ to ‘bad data is bad news’ because it is a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view a series of discouraging economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason for a rally driven by the Federal Reserve's prospects for easing policy. Meanwhile, US inflation remains high – as evidenced by the better-than-expected US PPI growth in November. Overall, this is enough to suppress the upward trend since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since the stock market peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices of raw material producers. Companies that are more sensitive to the economy, such as financial companies and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged behind in December.</p><p>This shift is also evident in the fixed income sector. In early 2022, when inflation fears raged, bonds plummeted on three occasions when the S&P 500 fell by at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as recession hedges. On Wednesday, long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield fell below 3.5%, the lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has risen 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you buy stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, that means an economic downturn will also come at some point in the future. So be careful when you make wishes.\"</p><p>In recent days, this information has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the prospects for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits. Even sell-side analysts who tend to tout the assets they sell have been clearly pessimistic in their predictions of a decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 points next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also indicate that investors are moving away from risky assets. EPFR data shows that investors withdrew from global stock markets at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared to $23 billion they had hoarded a week earlier. The volatility signals also reinforce the transience of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>Technical indicators that stimulated buying in November have fallen this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average and subsequently fell below the pullback/retracement level, which helps the bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To further complicate matters, the stock market rally in November triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs indicator, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to shift to an easing policy starting next year.</p><p>After being troubled by the intensity and persistence of inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike at around 5%. This is bad news for the economy, which is expected to contract sometime next year.</p><p>\"There's still a lot of pain to go through,\" said Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial. \"We've seen almost no lag effects from this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored various warnings—from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the collapse of the sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now seem to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall 3.4% this week after the index failed to hold above its 200-day average. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve would slow down rate hike had driven U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now soured, with concerns that if the Fed does indeed slow down rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing under the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies. The U.S. service sector contracted last month; Although the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with the number of first-time unemployment claims increasing recently. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but it remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve on guard, increasing the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: “We will shift from ‘bad data is good news’ to ‘bad data is bad news’ because it is a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view a series of discouraging economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason for a rally driven by the Federal Reserve's prospects for easing policy. Meanwhile, US inflation remains high – as evidenced by the better-than-expected US PPI growth in November. Overall, this is enough to suppress the upward trend since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since the stock market peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices of raw material producers. Companies that are more sensitive to the economy, such as financial companies and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged behind in December.</p><p>This shift is also evident in the fixed income sector. In early 2022, when inflation fears raged, bonds plummeted on three occasions when the S&P 500 fell by at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as recession hedges. On Wednesday, long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield fell below 3.5%, the lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has risen 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you buy stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, that means an economic downturn will also come at some point in the future. So be careful when you make wishes.\"</p><p>In recent days, this information has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the prospects for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits. Even sell-side analysts who tend to tout the assets they sell have been clearly pessimistic in their predictions of a decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 points next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also indicate that investors are moving away from risky assets. EPFR data shows that investors withdrew from global stock markets at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared to $23 billion they had hoarded a week earlier. The volatility signals also reinforce the transience of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>Technical indicators that stimulated buying in November have fallen this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average and subsequently fell below the pullback/retracement level, which helps the bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To further complicate matters, the stock market rally in November triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs indicator, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to shift to an easing policy starting next year.</p><p>After being troubled by the intensity and persistence of inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike at around 5%. This is bad news for the economy, which is expected to contract sometime next year.</p><p>\"There's still a lot of pain to go through,\" said Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial. \"We've seen almost no lag effects from this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920330820,"gmtCreate":1670429138960,"gmtModify":1676538366441,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920330820","repostId":"1166364006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166364006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1670420490,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166364006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-07 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is spreading rapidly! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166364006","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>Barclays is on the list of investment banks laying off employees, while Bank of America is slowing down its hiring pace. With a harsh economic winter approaching in the United States, the chill of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming increasingly pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, media reported, citing sources familiar with the matter,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to lay off 2% of its workforce globally, affecting 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of large-scale layoffs is not unfounded. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that he was \"considering (reducing) the number of employees,\" but did not provide specific details. Early last month, some media outlets also reported that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates to recklessly inject monetary policy, which indirectly led to the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower for investment banks, which led them to change their practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Instead of suspending layoffs, they conducted large-scale recruitment and used every means to attract talent.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% increase compared to the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, the risk of recession has increased daily, and the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk significantly.</p><p>Ernst & Young stated that in the third quarter of this year,<b>Investment banks saw 2,273 transactions, down 36% year-on-year, and a transaction value of $289 billion, down 64% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Compared to Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have clearly acted more quickly in terms of layoffs. Goldman Sachs began its largest round of layoffs since the pandemic began in September, with Citigroup, Barclays, and other companies joining the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Similarly, facing the impending recession, Bank of America appears to be taking a more composed approach.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes there is no need to lay off employees.</b>Moynihan said at a financial conference on Tuesday:</p><p><b>We will not lay off employees, but we have the ability to quickly adjust the number of employees based on employee turnover.</b>Moynihan stated that Bank of America's employee numbers have fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000 over the past two years. As of September 30, the bank employed 213,000 people, an increase of approximately 3,900 compared to the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need to correct this number.</b>Moynihan also stated that as fewer and fewer employees decide to leave, the bank is slowing down its hiring pace in an effort to control its workforce before a recession arrives.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The wave of layoffs on Wall Street is spreading rapidly! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe wave of layoffs on Wall Street is spreading rapidly! Morgan Stanley cuts 1,600 jobs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-07 21:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>Barclays is on the list of investment banks laying off employees, while Bank of America is slowing down its hiring pace. With a harsh economic winter approaching in the United States, the chill of layoffs on Wall Street is becoming increasingly pressing.</p><p>On Tuesday local time, media reported, citing sources familiar with the matter,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is expected to lay off 2% of its workforce globally, affecting 1,600 employees.</b></p><p>The news of large-scale layoffs is not unfounded. Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said on the third-quarter earnings call that he was \"considering (reducing) the number of employees,\" but did not provide specific details. Early last month, some media outlets also reported that Morgan Stanley was about to lay off employees.</p><p>During the outbreak of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve opened the floodgates to recklessly inject monetary policy, which indirectly led to the prosperity of investment banking trading business. At the same time, it also led to a shortage of manpower for investment banks, which led them to change their practice of laying off employees before the bonus season. Instead of suspending layoffs, they conducted large-scale recruitment and used every means to attract talent.</p><p>Morgan Stanley did the same. As of the end of the third quarter of this year<b>Morgan Stanley has nearly 82,000 employees, a 34% increase compared to the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic broke out in Europe and the United States.</b></p><p>However, since the beginning of this year, due to the Federal Reserve's continued aggressive rate hike, the financial environment has tightened rapidly, the risk of recession has increased daily, and the transaction growth of the investment industry has shrunk significantly.</p><p>Ernst & Young stated that in the third quarter of this year,<b>Investment banks saw 2,273 transactions, down 36% year-on-year, and a transaction value of $289 billion, down 64% year-on-year.</b></p><p>Compared to Morgan Stanley, other investment banks have clearly acted more quickly in terms of layoffs. Goldman Sachs began its largest round of layoffs since the pandemic began in September, with Citigroup, Barclays, and other companies joining the latest list of layoffs earlier this month.</p><p>Similarly, facing the impending recession, Bank of America appears to be taking a more composed approach.<b>Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan believes there is no need to lay off employees.</b>Moynihan said at a financial conference on Tuesday:</p><p><b>We will not lay off employees, but we have the ability to quickly adjust the number of employees based on employee turnover.</b>Moynihan stated that Bank of America's employee numbers have fluctuated between 205,000 and 215,000 over the past two years. As of September 30, the bank employed 213,000 people, an increase of approximately 3,900 compared to the same period last year.</p><p>However, he added:</p><p>We have a total of approximately 215,000 employees,<b>We need to correct this number.</b>Moynihan also stated that as fewer and fewer employees decide to leave, the bank is slowing down its hiring pace in an effort to control its workforce before a recession arrives.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166364006","content_text":"高盛、花旗、巴克莱均在裁员投行的名单上，美银正在放缓招聘速度。美国经济凛冬即将降临，华尔街的裁员“寒气”愈发逼人。当地时间周二，媒体援引知情人士报道，摩根士丹利预计将在全球范围内裁员2%，涉及1600名员工。大规模裁员的消息并非空穴来风。大摩董事长兼首席执行官James Gorman在三季度财报电话会上表示，“正在考虑（减少）员工人数”，但没有提供具体细节。上月初，也有媒体爆出大摩即将裁员的消息。疫情爆发期间，美联储打开闸门肆意放水，间接造就了投行交易业务的繁荣，同时也导致投行出现人手不足的局面，令其一改在奖金季来临之前裁员的做法，不仅暂停裁员，反而进行大规模招聘，出尽手段招揽人才。大摩也是这样做的。截至今年第三季度末，摩根士丹利的员工人数接近8.2万名，比2020年第一季度疫情在欧美爆发之前飙升了34%。然而今年以来，由于美联储持续激进加息，金融环境快速收紧，衰退风险与日俱增，投行业的交易增长大幅萎缩。安永会计师事务所表示，美国今年第三季度，投行的交易量为2273笔交易，同比下降36%，交易金额为2890亿美元，同比下降64%。与大摩相比，其他投行在裁员方面的行动显然更加迅速。高盛从9月就开启了疫情以来最大的一轮裁员，花旗、巴克莱等本月初都加入了最新裁员企业名单中。同样面对即将到来的衰退，美银的态度似乎更加从容。美银首席执行官Brian Moynihan认为没有裁员的必要。Moynihan周二在一次财务会议上表示：我们不会裁员，但我们有能力根据员工流动情况迅速调整员工数量。Moynihan表示，美银这两年的员工数量在20.5万-21.5万之间浮动。截至9月30日，该行共雇用了21.3万名员工，比去年同期增加约3900人。不过，他补充说：我们的员工总数约为21.5万人，我们需要对这一数字进行回调。Moynihan还表示，由于决定离职的员工越来越少，该行正在放缓招聘速度，以期在经济衰退到来之前控制员工数量。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967246370,"gmtCreate":1670340256390,"gmtModify":1676538347883,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967246370","repostId":"1195902581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195902581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金深度研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金点睛","id":"1012212489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75"},"pubTimestamp":1670305215,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195902581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-06 13:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195902581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market performance slowed further in the third quarter of 2022, with growth essentially close to zero. What are the earnings prospects of US stocks under increasing growth pressure, and what impact will it have on the subsequent trend of US stocks? This article will focus on analyzing this.</p><p><b>Growth trend: Profits continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, while finance and technology are a significant drag.</b></p><p><b>US stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS in the third quarter increased by only 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). The Nasdaq 100's EPS for the third quarter was -1% year-over-year, an improvement from -5.1% in the second quarter. The S&P 500's better-than-expected performance fell to 1.9% from 2.9% in the second quarter (the pre-pandemic average was 5.4%), and the better-than-expected percentage also decreased from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-pandemic average was 71%). Overall, a further slowdown in US stock earnings is expected due to high costs and low demand.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 EPS -1% year-over-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's better-than-expected earnings continued to decline in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still reached 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in the information technology, industrial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors still exceeded expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and essential consumption had the highest growth rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributions; The financial sector is under pressure, and the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and internet sectors are also slowing down.</b>Driven by a low base and a rebound in oil prices (Brent crude oil averaged $98 per barrel in the third quarter vs. $73 per barrel in the third quarter of last year), energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS grew by 152%, 149%, and 68% year-on-year, respectively, while automobiles and auto parts, and real estate also ranked among the top in terms of growth (40% and 39%). In contrast, the financial sector was under pressure, with EPS in the third quarter falling by 19% year-on-year (vs. -26% in the second quarter). The four major banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, as slowing loan demand coupled with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors, and media and entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution level, energy (4.1ppt), discretionary consumption (1.2ppt), and transportation (1.1ppt) were the main contributors, while communication services, diversified finance, and insurance significantly dragged down the market.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, energy, consumer services, and transportation profits remained significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media, and entertainment lagged behind.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the second quarter, profit growth in retail, real estate, and banking increased, but raw materials, insurance, and biopharmaceuticals declined.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth in the third quarter, energy and consumer discretionaries contributed 4.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, while communications services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100's -1% year-on-year EPS growth, healthcare, information technology, and communications services were significantly dragged down, reaching -1.2, -1.1, and -0.9 percentage points respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, which are the leading companies in the US stock market, have declined for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative. This is mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, a strong dollar, and high inflation. Management has stated that they will control costs by slowing down hiring and laying off employees.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>META Technology's leading companies both performed worse than expected in the third quarter, with net profit declining by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the strong US dollar has also had a negative impact due to the high proportion of overseas revenue for leading technology companies (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%). FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of the S&P 500's non-financial sector also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies have said they will slow hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting plan.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of Q3 Performance of Leading US Tech Companies</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (Overseas revenue percentage is the percentage of overseas revenue excluding the United States for each company as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market capitalization share of leading US tech companies (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The performance of the FAAMNG S&P 500 has a significant negative correlation with US financial conditions.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a percentage of non-financial revenue in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of non-financial assets in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit in the third quarter fell by 12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Demand and Cost Analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins; low inventory amid declining demand gives the industry stronger bargaining power.</b></p><p><b>Revenue continued to decline as demand cooled, and high costs continued to squeeze profit margins.</b>The S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-over-year (non-financial 9.6%), continuing to decline from 10.5% in the second quarter (non-financial 11.7%). Looking at different sectors, compared to the second quarter, automobiles and auto parts saw a significant increase, while biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw a significant decline. Meanwhile, high costs continued to squeeze net profit margins, with the S&P 500's net profit margin at 11.3% in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. Excluding the energy sector, the net profit margin fell to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, consumer services, household and personal products, and utilities saw significant gains, while software and services, raw materials, and media and entertainment saw significant declines.</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial income fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, largely consistent with the downward trend in nominal GDP growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the second quarter, the growth rates of energy, transportation, and raw material revenues slowed significantly in the third quarter, while the growth rates of capital goods and utilities increased.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the S&P 500's non-financial sector fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy sectors fell to 10.3%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Net profit margins in consumer services, household and personal goods, and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials declined markedly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Industries with low inventory levels can still rely on price increases to alleviate profit pressure.</b>For example, due to high inventory and weakening demand, the semiconductor industry lacks bargaining power, resulting in a significant decline in sales revenue and continued pressure on interest rates (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). In contrast, in the automotive and auto parts sectors, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices due to insufficient inventory (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that as real recessionary pressures gradually intensify next year, weakening overall demand will gradually erode its profitability.</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue in the semiconductor sector, where inventory remained high in the third quarter, declined, and gross profit margins continued to decline.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue in the automotive and auto parts sector, which still had insufficient inventory in the third quarter, continued to rise, while gross profit margin remained stable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Growth quality: slowdown in bond issuance, decline in cash flow and cash on hand; Decrease in repurchases; Leverage remains flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the S&P 500's non-financial ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by declining net profit margins), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, corporate bond issuance slowed down in the third quarter, resulting in a decrease in operating cash flow and cash on hand; Repurchases declined, while capital expenditures increased. From a leverage perspective, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial sector ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Excluding energy, ROE fell to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover and leverage ratio increased slightly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, corporate bond issuance slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.</b>Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). Rising financing costs amid the Federal Reserve's continued tightening efforts further slowed corporate credit bond issuance in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-over-year). As a result, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy cash on hand fell from $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, and its proportion of total assets decreased to 3.8% in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, the proportion of cash on hand in total assets in consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology all declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year (TTM) in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led in operating cash flow year-on-year, but consumer discretionary and capital goods sectors lagged behind year-on-year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, corporate credit bond issuance reached $296.1 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial cash on hand in the S&P 500 fell to $1.59 trillion in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, with information technology and discretionary consumption still accounting for a relatively high proportion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash on hand to total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and healthcare saw significant increases compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to decline.</b>S&P 500 share buybacks fell from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and their share of market capitalization decreased from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, share buybacks in the energy sector remained strong (its share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), while information technology saw a decrease from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, share buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth in the third quarter, a significant increase from 3.3% in the second quarter; Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed slightly to recurring EPS growth (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: Disclosed repurchase amounts continued to decline compared to the previous quarter, reaching approximately $196 billion, dropping to 2.8% of market capitalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, discretionary consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate account for the lowest percentages.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed approximately 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► Leverage remained flat, but solvency declined.</b>In the third quarter, the S&P 500's overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) remained basically at 77% of the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (remaining at 60% of the second quarter). However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest rate reserve ratio for individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). Looking at different sectors, net leverage ratios in energy, healthcare, and real estate declined in the third quarter, but information technology saw an increase.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter; The overall net leverage ratio is also the same.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate reserve ratio for S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Inventory and Investment Cycle: Entering a proactive destocking cycle; Investment increased, but this could not mask the slowdown.</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered a phase of proactive inventory reduction, resulting in a decline in finished goods inventory.</b>In \"The Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States,\" we pointed out that the United States has entered a phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, total non-financial inventories in the S&P 500 continued to rise, but inventories of raw materials, especially finished goods, have gradually declined. The year-on-year inventory growth rate has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit decline (12-month dynamic EPS) during the proactive destocking phase was 7%, with the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic being even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial total inventories continued to rise in the third quarter, while raw material and finished goods inventories declined.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit decline during the proactive destocking phase (S&P 500 12-month dynamic EPS) is around 7%, with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic having a greater impact.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditures have increased, but this may not mask the overall slowdown.</b>Non-financial capital expenditures in the S&P 500 rose 21% year-on-year in the third quarter, compared to 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditures excluding energy were 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, utilities, technology hardware, and semiconductors being particularly noticeable. From a macroeconomic perspective, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), which was also higher than in the second quarter. Intangible asset and facility investment declined year-on-year, but equipment investment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly. This may be related to the Biden administration's promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections\"). However, given the increasing downward pressure on US growth, corporate willingness to spend capital may be further suppressed (multiple local Federal Reserve surveys have shown that corporate asset spending expectations for the next six months have fallen again since August of this year, see \"Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States by review\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in Q3 vs. 14.7% in Q2)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures in retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, grew significantly in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Expectations for corporate asset spending over the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research Department</p><p>By combining demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found that...<b>semiconductor</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage)<b>media entertainment</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity)<b>telecommunications services</b>The pressure is greater due to weak demand, high inventory and leverage.<b>Retail</b>(Weak demand, high inventory) and<b>transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is lower) is also worth noting.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue from telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, and media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the average since 2006, the year-on-year inventory growth rate of semiconductors, media and entertainment, and consumer services remains relatively high.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures in energy, transportation, and semiconductors remained relatively high year-on-year in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Fixed asset turnover rates in software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail in the third quarter were significantly lower than the average since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Leverage ratios in consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, and semiconductors are higher than the 2006 average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: We find that semiconductors, media and entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation also deserve attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: US stock earnings may continue to decline under recessionary pressure, with a forecast of -5% in 2023; The market may need to decline first if it wants to rise; it will face pressure from the molecular side in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Considering that financing costs across the United States have now exceeded investment returns (for example, the real yield on investment-grade bonds exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP by 342 basis points in November; the 3M-10S interest rate spread is currently inverted by 75 basis points; high-yield bond yields once approached 10%, only 265 basis points lower than the S&P 500 ROIC; and the 30-year mortgage rate once approached 7%),<b>Therefore, a gradual recession is likely to be a highly probable event.</b>Based on historical experience with the inverted 3M-10S interest rate spread, recessionary pressure may occur in the first and second quarters of next year. However, based on review' experience of 18 recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, excessively tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review: The Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze on investment returns from financing costs will not be very significant.<b>This would prevent a very deep recession.</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range at 3m10s is 150bp). Against this backdrop, US stock earnings are likely to continue to decline, but the adjustment will not be significant. We currently expect profit growth in 2023 to drop to -5.5%, which is still room for decline compared to the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Real Yield on Investment-Grade Bonds – Real GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Spread Breaks Threshold in October, Reaching 342 basis points at the End of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The 3M-10S interest rate spread began to invert in early November and is currently around 75 basis points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The current yield on US high-yield bonds is 8.4%, with a spread of approximately 265 basis points compared to US stock ROIC.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Current market consensus expects the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>The still relatively high valuations, coupled with increased recessionary pressures in the first and second quarters of next year, may cause US stocks to fall first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 17.7, higher than the historical average of 16.2 since 1990. The current tapering of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided support for US stocks in terms of interest rates and risk appetite. However, with increased recessionary pressure in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to immediately receive compensation from the denominator. After market volatility may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Extrapolating the Three Stages of Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~3.8%, respectively, corresponding to the lows at the end of September, the S&P 500 is reasonably valued at ~15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly equivalent (a 48% ISM manufacturing PMI and a 10-year US Treasury yields of ~3.8% correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 to 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 to 15% lower than currently. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than the current level (\"Overseas Market Outlook 2023: A Decline May Be Needed First for a Rise\").</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen to a relatively low level of 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to decline since turning negative in mid-June this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level for the S&P 500 is 10-15% lower than the current level. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than currently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stock earnings continue to decline amid recessionary pressures; a decline may be necessary for the market to rise first.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-06 13:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market performance slowed further in the third quarter of 2022, with growth essentially close to zero. What are the earnings prospects of US stocks under increasing growth pressure, and what impact will it have on the subsequent trend of US stocks? This article will focus on analyzing this.</p><p><b>Growth trend: Profits continue to slow, approaching zero growth; Energy and transportation are the main contributors, while finance and technology are a significant drag.</b></p><p><b>US stock earnings continued to weaken in the third quarter, approaching zero growth.</b>On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS in the third quarter increased by only 0.6% year-on-year (non-financial 4.9%), continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter (non-financial 10.5%). The Nasdaq 100's EPS for the third quarter was -1% year-over-year, an improvement from -5.1% in the second quarter. The S&P 500's better-than-expected performance fell to 1.9% from 2.9% in the second quarter (the pre-pandemic average was 5.4%), and the better-than-expected percentage also decreased from 76% in the second quarter to 70% (the pre-pandemic average was 71%). Overall, a further slowdown in US stock earnings is expected due to high costs and low demand.</p><p><b>Chart: On a comparable basis, the S&P 500's EPS grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 2.9% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd88bce6d3c21dc090a566cd06e96c1e\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 EPS -1% year-over-year, up from the previous quarter</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76e860775855f037c4f392e7abe7ed28\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">CICC</a>Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's better-than-expected earnings continued to decline in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter (1.9% in the third quarter vs. 2.9% in the second quarter), but the number of companies exceeding expectations still reached 70%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d955c32bfc57b2d6af5ae17ebc5aa90\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: More than 75% of companies in the information technology, industrial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors still exceeded expectations; In terms of exceeding expectations, energy, healthcare, and essential consumption had the highest growth rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db520d3f2e5fee56fe6ed927d652f17\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Energy and transportation are the main contributions; The financial sector is under pressure, and the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and internet sectors are also slowing down.</b>Driven by a low base and a rebound in oil prices (Brent crude oil averaged $98 per barrel in the third quarter vs. $73 per barrel in the third quarter of last year), energy, consumer services, and transportation EPS grew by 152%, 149%, and 68% year-on-year, respectively, while automobiles and auto parts, and real estate also ranked among the top in terms of growth (40% and 39%). In contrast, the financial sector was under pressure, with EPS in the third quarter falling by 19% year-on-year (vs. -26% in the second quarter). The four major banks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citibank<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>Loan losses rose to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, as slowing loan demand coupled with weak investment banking business also dragged down profits. In addition, the growth rates of raw materials, insurance, biopharmaceuticals, durable goods and apparel, semiconductors, and media and entertainment also declined significantly. In terms of contribution level, energy (4.1ppt), discretionary consumption (1.2ppt), and transportation (1.1ppt) were the main contributors, while communication services, diversified finance, and insurance significantly dragged down the market.</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, energy, consumer services, and transportation profits remained significantly ahead year-on-year, while insurance, media, and entertainment lagged behind.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6b9a12c96ae1ad8c5b396f648e6b00\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the second quarter, profit growth in retail, real estate, and banking increased, but raw materials, insurance, and biopharmaceuticals declined.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee05357e8cc7325932a5aecd947160d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the S&P 500's 0.6% year-on-year EPS growth in the third quarter, energy and consumer discretionaries contributed 4.1 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, while communications services, diversified finance, and insurance dragged down 2.5, 1.3, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4288d85b87147287c52f73ba90d721\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Among the Nasdaq 100's -1% year-on-year EPS growth, healthcare, information technology, and communications services were significantly dragged down, reaching -1.2, -1.1, and -0.9 percentage points respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27cd4234876e0a3e9215c7e26a9362bf\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>It is worth mentioning that the profits of technology companies, which are the leading companies in the US stock market, have declined for five consecutive quarters and have turned negative. This is mainly due to the \"triple pressure\" of weak demand, a strong dollar, and high inflation. Management has stated that they will control costs by slowing down hiring and laying off employees.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>META Technology's leading companies both performed worse than expected in the third quarter, with net profit declining by 89%, 72%, and 52% year-on-year, respectively. In addition, the strong US dollar has also had a negative impact due to the high proportion of overseas revenue for leading technology companies (FAAMNG average 53% vs. S&P 500 39%). FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of the S&P 500's non-financial sector also fell from 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter. Many companies have said they will slow hiring or lay off employees to control costs, and Intel has proposed a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting plan.</p><p><b>Chart: Overview of Q3 Performance of Leading US Tech Companies</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c8fcaec4cdf748e5e8d15beb3481067\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (Overseas revenue percentage is the percentage of overseas revenue excluding the United States for each company as of the end of 2021)</p><p><b>Chart: The market capitalization share of leading US tech companies (FAAMNG) has fallen from a high of 24.2% in September 2020 to 18.6%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db5282d9e3ed156330a41bc1fbc9e3d\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The performance of the FAAMNG S&P 500 has a significant negative correlation with US financial conditions.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940ed71b15067e6eaa4e0cd899c1012\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CICC Research</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue as a percentage of non-financial revenue in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 10.7% in September 2021 to 10.4% in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e87ba825dc35c2684114291fcf786bf3\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit as a percentage of non-financial assets in the S&P 500 fell from a high of 27% at the end of 2020 to 17.7% in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e8c72dfd741f0cbb13e1db0dafb270\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG revenue in the third quarter was 10.2% year-on-year, lower than the average of 20% since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cd447a8018d85927a9d6cc477d22b\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: FAAMNG's net profit in the third quarter fell by 12.6% year-on-year, lower than the average of 23% since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8eb3628d57210eb18550bfb95869413\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Demand and Cost Analysis: High costs continue to squeeze profit margins; low inventory amid declining demand gives the industry stronger bargaining power.</b></p><p><b>Revenue continued to decline as demand cooled, and high costs continued to squeeze profit margins.</b>The S&P 500's revenue in the third quarter increased by 9.3% year-over-year (non-financial 9.6%), continuing to decline from 10.5% in the second quarter (non-financial 11.7%). Looking at different sectors, compared to the second quarter, automobiles and auto parts saw a significant increase, while biopharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw a significant decline. Meanwhile, high costs continued to squeeze net profit margins, with the S&P 500's net profit margin at 11.3% in the third quarter, continuing to decline from 11.7% in the second quarter; The non-financial net profit margin also fell from 11.3% in the second quarter to 11% in the third quarter. Excluding the energy sector, the net profit margin fell to 10.3% in the third quarter (vs. 10.6% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, consumer services, household and personal products, and utilities saw significant gains, while software and services, raw materials, and media and entertainment saw significant declines.</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial income fell to 9.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, largely consistent with the downward trend in nominal GDP growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e37a4547b48a207f6b14f9304e7bf58a\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the second quarter, the growth rates of energy, transportation, and raw material revenues slowed significantly in the third quarter, while the growth rates of capital goods and utilities increased.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93c5dae4bd0e9479ebb02394151ebe3\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: In the third quarter, the net profit margin of the S&P 500's non-financial sector fell to 11%, and the net profit margin of non-financial and non-energy sectors fell to 10.3%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/432617bcc8b24361e71308483993e643\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Net profit margins in consumer services, household and personal goods, and utilities rose significantly, but software and services, media and entertainment, and raw materials declined markedly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07dc321f1823fcf09628835379db8204\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Industries with low inventory levels can still rely on price increases to alleviate profit pressure.</b>For example, due to high inventory and weakening demand, the semiconductor industry lacks bargaining power, resulting in a significant decline in sales revenue and continued pressure on interest rates (gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.9% vs. 51% in the second quarter, with an average of 52.5% since 2013; net profit margin continued to fall to 21.7% from 22.3% in the second quarter). In contrast, in the automotive and auto parts sectors, companies can still maintain profits by raising prices due to insufficient inventory (gross profit margin rose to 14.6% in the third quarter, an average of 12.3% since 2013; net profit margin rose to 5.9%, an average of 4.1% since 2013). However, we expect that as real recessionary pressures gradually intensify next year, weakening overall demand will gradually erode its profitability.</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue in the semiconductor sector, where inventory remained high in the third quarter, declined, and gross profit margins continued to decline.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed34a98561525abf0b66269ecd7fad88\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Sales revenue in the automotive and auto parts sector, which still had insufficient inventory in the third quarter, continued to rise, while gross profit margin remained stable.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d1a9beea12b9afb5b4b88f9b3bac48\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Growth quality: slowdown in bond issuance, decline in cash flow and cash on hand; Decrease in repurchases; Leverage remains flat but solvency declines</b></p><p>In terms of growth quality, the S&P 500's non-financial ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter from 24.9% in the second quarter (dragged down by declining net profit margins), and the non-financial and non-energy ROE continued to decline (22.7% vs. 23% in the second quarter). On the cash flow statement, corporate bond issuance slowed down in the third quarter, resulting in a decrease in operating cash flow and cash on hand; Repurchases declined, while capital expenditures increased. From a leverage perspective, financial leverage remained basically unchanged in the third quarter, but solvency declined. Specifically:</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial sector ROE fell to 24.3% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover ratio and leverage ratio remained basically unchanged.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb583f51ae503018abb7f8e2e29f45f\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Excluding energy, ROE fell to 22.7% in the third quarter; Net profit margin declined, while asset turnover and leverage ratio increased slightly.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/483b8f5974cdc60e81fb5a28b3ab4e6f\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► Operating cash flow weakened, corporate bond issuance slowed down, and cash on hand decreased.</b>Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter (3.8% in the third quarter vs. 8.3% in the second quarter). Rising financing costs amid the Federal Reserve's continued tightening efforts further slowed corporate credit bond issuance in the third quarter ($296.1 billion, down 33% year-over-year). As a result, the S&P 500's non-financial and non-energy cash on hand fell from $1.51 trillion in the second quarter to $1.48 trillion in the third quarter, and its proportion of total assets decreased to 3.8% in the third quarter (vs. 3.9% in the second quarter). Looking at different sectors, the proportion of cash on hand in total assets in consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology all declined significantly.</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial operating cash flow continued to decline year-on-year (TTM) in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8310746c9db520a529a467ba5b3a763\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Energy, utilities, and transportation sectors led in operating cash flow year-on-year, but consumer discretionary and capital goods sectors lagged behind year-on-year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa956efa6c9a6b5c81c3cc8108160b99\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: According to SIFMA statistics, corporate credit bond issuance reached $296.1 billion in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.9%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320880f44c9a20dbceef3fc36061e3b2\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: SIFMA, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial cash on hand in the S&P 500 fell to $1.59 trillion in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, with information technology and discretionary consumption still accounting for a relatively high proportion.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0030b955b4da06b41a7070ed87c2726f\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Energy and information technology have the highest proportion of cash on hand to total assets, but only energy, raw materials, and healthcare saw significant increases compared to the previous quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5338234b2fa7464fff89420858f9cb96\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► The scale of repurchases continued to decline.</b>S&P 500 share buybacks fell from $225.7 billion in the second quarter to $196 billion in the third quarter, and their share of market capitalization decreased from 3% in the second quarter to 2.8%. However, share buybacks in the energy sector remained strong (its share of market capitalization rose from 6.1% in the second quarter to 6.4% in the third quarter), while information technology saw a decrease from 3.8% in the second quarter to 3% in the third quarter. In terms of contribution to EPS, share buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth in the third quarter, a significant increase from 3.3% in the second quarter; Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed slightly to recurring EPS growth (2.4% in the third quarter vs. 2.2% in the second quarter).</p><p><b>Chart: Disclosed repurchase amounts continued to decline compared to the previous quarter, reaching approximately $196 billion, dropping to 2.8% of market capitalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e2aea5a4feeab0897b00a48e7798bf\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Information technology accounts for 30%, discretionary consumption accounts for 16.4%, finance accounts for 12.8%, and utilities and real estate account for the lowest percentages.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3948111a95f3a55a8d40558fdf8bbece\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Buybacks contributed 5.6% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 3.3% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c3db1cb34f6bf0e1ab874252212942\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Nasdaq 100 share buybacks contributed approximately 2.4% to recurring EPS growth, continuing to rise from 2.2% in the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f294fb4c3d747c910ed8b2d5298d4d59\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>► Leverage remained flat, but solvency declined.</b>In the third quarter, the S&P 500's overall non-financial net leverage ratio (net debt/net assets) remained basically at 77% of the second quarter, as did the median net leverage ratio of individual stocks (remaining at 60% of the second quarter). However, the overall non-financial interest rate reserve ratio (EBIT/(interest expense + capitalized interest)) decreased from 11.3 in the second quarter to 10.1 in the third quarter (the median interest rate reserve ratio for individual stocks decreased from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter). Looking at different sectors, net leverage ratios in energy, healthcare, and real estate declined in the third quarter, but information technology saw an increase.</p><p><b>Chart: The median net leverage ratio of S&P 500 non-financial stocks remained at 60% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter; The overall net leverage ratio is also the same.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5b91960777c7e6475072b898eeb1e\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The median interest rate reserve ratio for S&P 500 non-financial stocks fell from 9.6 in the second quarter to 8.9 in the third quarter, as did the overall net leverage ratio.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0d40f107f0f30a48f0bd04498a7707\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Inventory and Investment Cycle: Entering a proactive destocking cycle; Investment increased, but this could not mask the slowdown.</b></p><p><b>Enterprises have entered a phase of proactive inventory reduction, resulting in a decline in finished goods inventory.</b>In \"The Asset Implications of Active Destocking in the United States,\" we pointed out that the United States has entered a phase of active destocking. In the third quarter, total non-financial inventories in the S&P 500 continued to rise, but inventories of raw materials, especially finished goods, have gradually declined. The year-on-year inventory growth rate has also peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter). The average profit decline (12-month dynamic EPS) during the proactive destocking phase was 7%, with the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic being even greater.</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 non-financial total inventories continued to rise in the third quarter, while raw material and finished goods inventories declined.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e815e3a3a6c3d31d6aae3022e143e9d\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of total inventory peaked and declined (17.5% in the third quarter vs. 21.3% in the second quarter), as did raw materials, semi-finished products, and finished products.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d727ec32cb652c020927614463ee897c\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Looking back at historical experience, the average profit decline during the proactive destocking phase (S&P 500 12-month dynamic EPS) is around 7%, with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic having a greater impact.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d44ed7d96d76f27ef4dce0e9def4d5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, Haver, CICC Research</p><p><b>Capital expenditures have increased, but this may not mask the overall slowdown.</b>Non-financial capital expenditures in the S&P 500 rose 21% year-on-year in the third quarter, compared to 17% in the second quarter; Capital expenditures excluding energy were 16.4% year-on-year (vs. 14.7% in the second quarter). The absolute scale also increased, with energy, telecommunications services, utilities, technology hardware, and semiconductors being particularly noticeable. From a macroeconomic perspective, U.S. non-residential fixed asset investment actually increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter (vs. 2.4% in the second quarter), which was also higher than in the second quarter. Intangible asset and facility investment declined year-on-year, but equipment investment (5.3% year-on-year in the third quarter vs. 2.0% in the second quarter), especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, increased significantly. This may be related to the Biden administration's promotion of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act in August 2022 (\"Policy and Market Implications of the U.S. Midterm Elections\"). However, given the increasing downward pressure on US growth, corporate willingness to spend capital may be further suppressed (multiple local Federal Reserve surveys have shown that corporate asset spending expectations for the next six months have fallen again since August of this year, see \"Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States by review\").</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditure increased year-on-year in the second quarter (21% in the third quarter vs. 16.6% in the second quarter)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dce0cc997ed9d3978e28c33f9175e91\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Non-financial and non-energy capital expenditures increased year-on-year (16.4% in Q3 vs. 14.7% in Q2)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd6874bffc97ad18c1533a281be512c\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures in retail, semiconductors, and telecommunications services exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, but there are still gaps in energy, capital goods, and consumer services.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd00ac75b28b765f2453b4eca27039c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Equipment investment, especially information processing equipment and transportation equipment, grew significantly in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0768ed59c5b234392551df0075d91f\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Haver, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Expectations for corporate asset spending over the next six months surveyed by several local Feds have fallen again since August of this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685326eddb4fb4d6c5a3708058d923d8\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Wind, CICC Research Department</p><p>By combining demand, capacity utilization, inventory, capital expenditure, and leverage, we found that...<b>semiconductor</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, high leverage)<b>media entertainment</b>(Weak demand, high inventory and investment, low production capacity)<b>telecommunications services</b>The pressure is greater due to weak demand, high inventory and leverage.<b>Retail</b>(Weak demand, high inventory) and<b>transportation</b>(Demand is acceptable, but inventory, investment and leverage are higher, and production capacity is lower) is also worth noting.</p><p><b>Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue from telecommunications services, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, and media and entertainment in the third quarter was significantly lower than the average since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44169e5de6ab02299336490c4ca9df5b\" tg-width=\"874\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Compared to the average since 2006, the year-on-year inventory growth rate of semiconductors, media and entertainment, and consumer services remains relatively high.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c6065d3b836a99e10c2fb92f14bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Capital expenditures in energy, transportation, and semiconductors remained relatively high year-on-year in the third quarter.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b35a9dabb8cab3bf261d670a24871a\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Fixed asset turnover rates in software and services, durable consumer goods and apparel, and retail in the third quarter were significantly lower than the average since 2006.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff63c2cf442209c225630980152f64d\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Leverage ratios in consumer services, technology hardware, transportation, and semiconductors are higher than the 2006 average.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa5ad9af8268936b20c8786a584a032\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: We find that semiconductors, media and entertainment, and telecommunications services are under greater pressure; Retail and transportation also deserve attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281255e89c006f144c82054bb0a57a90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p><b>Outlook: US stock earnings may continue to decline under recessionary pressure, with a forecast of -5% in 2023; The market may need to decline first if it wants to rise; it will face pressure from the molecular side in the second quarter.</b></p><p>Considering that financing costs across the United States have now exceeded investment returns (for example, the real yield on investment-grade bonds exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of real GDP by 342 basis points in November; the 3M-10S interest rate spread is currently inverted by 75 basis points; high-yield bond yields once approached 10%, only 265 basis points lower than the S&P 500 ROIC; and the 30-year mortgage rate once approached 7%),<b>Therefore, a gradual recession is likely to be a highly probable event.</b>Based on historical experience with the inverted 3M-10S interest rate spread, recessionary pressure may occur in the first and second quarters of next year. However, based on review' experience of 18 recessions since 1920, deep recessions are generally caused by three reasons: high leverage, excessively tight monetary policy, or external shocks (\"review: The Historical Experience of Past Recessions in the United States\"). Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve can stop its rate hike in the first quarter, the squeeze on investment returns from financing costs will not be very significant.<b>This would prevent a very deep recession.</b>(Looking back at historical experience, the average inversion range at 3m10s is 150bp). Against this backdrop, US stock earnings are likely to continue to decline, but the adjustment will not be significant. We currently expect profit growth in 2023 to drop to -5.5%, which is still room for decline compared to the current market expectation of 5.3%.</p><p><b>Chart: Real Yield on Investment-Grade Bonds – Real GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate Spread Breaks Threshold in October, Reaching 342 basis points at the End of November</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c0eaf8b19cf31e502ee35492e1e49ee\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"533\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The 3M-10S interest rate spread began to invert in early November and is currently around 75 basis points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4663493b53707ff32b55df93456a58e\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The current yield on US high-yield bonds is 8.4%, with a spread of approximately 265 basis points compared to US stock ROIC.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7194ae3b39a04ab2edf5c1f584671d\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Current 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates are 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b62d165bb0a8a0ad57ddd08517b423\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: Current market consensus expects the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 5.7% in 2023 and 9.5% in 2024.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72291e9ae52e65e84e4514b787b5207c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: FactSet, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>The still relatively high valuations, coupled with increased recessionary pressures in the first and second quarters of next year, may cause US stocks to fall first.</b>The current 12-month dynamic P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 17.7, higher than the historical average of 16.2 since 1990. The current tapering of tightening and the elimination of upside risks in US Treasury yields have provided support for US stocks in terms of interest rates and risk appetite. However, with increased recessionary pressure in the second quarter of next year, it may not be possible to immediately receive compensation from the denominator. After market volatility may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks (\"Extrapolating the Three Stages of Federal Reserve Policy and Asset Rotation\"). Assuming the equity risk premium rises to the 10-year US Treasury yields of 2.7% and ~3.8%, respectively, corresponding to the lows at the end of September, the S&P 500 is reasonably valued at ~15 times. Our reasonable valuations based on growth and liquidity calculations are also roughly equivalent (a 48% ISM manufacturing PMI and a 10-year US Treasury yields of ~3.8% correspond to a reasonable valuation of 14.5 to 15 times), and the implied support level is 10 to 15% lower than currently. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than the current level (\"Overseas Market Outlook 2023: A Decline May Be Needed First for a Rise\").</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's 12-month dynamic valuation is 17.7 times, higher than the average since 1990.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e919e36f5057d48920d53f3e12032741\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The S&P 500's implied equity risk premium has fallen to a relatively low level of 2.2%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c52c6a82a20cef03f58e038ead2090\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: S&P 500 earnings sentiment has continued to decline since turning negative in mid-June this year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9dba718fdc93dd15b49376d1054d05\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: After market volatility in the second quarter of next year may force expectations of easing, the rapid decline in US Treasury yields may gradually bring greater allocation opportunities to growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78374f5487af7a39f1cc2b32d46b82da\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department</p><p><b>Chart: The current implied support level for the S&P 500 is 10-15% lower than the current level. However, we expect the year-end level to be ~5% higher than currently.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2abe0bef81f5c05679b06f9a48ed55\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Department (red indicates higher pressure)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195902581","content_text":"美股2022年三季度业绩进一步放缓，基本接近零增长。持续加大的增长压力下美股盈利前景如何，对美股后续走势有何影响，本文中我们将重点分析。增长趋势：盈利继续放缓，逼近零增长；能源和交运是主要贡献，金融与科技拖累较大三季度美股盈利继续趋弱，逼近零增长。可比口径下，标普500三季度EPS同比仅增长0.6%（非金融4.9%），较二季度2.9%继续回落（非金融10.5%）。纳斯达克100三季度EPS同比-1%，较二季度-5.1%改善。标普500超预期幅度较二季度2.9%回落至1.9%（疫情前均值为5.4%），超预期占比也从二季度76%降至70%（疫情前均值71%）。整体看，高成本和低需求下，美股盈利进一步放缓也在预期之中。图表：可比口径下，三季度标普500指数EPS同比增长0.6%，较二季度2.9%继续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数EPS同比-1%，较上季度抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数盈利超预期幅度较上季度继续回落（三季度1.9% vs. 二季度2.9%），但超预期公司数占比仍达70%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息科技、工业、必需消费、医疗保健仍有超过75%公司超预期；超预期幅度上，能源、医疗保健、必需消费最高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部能源和交运是主要贡献；金融承压，医药、半导体及互联网同样放缓。受低基数和油价反弹驱动（布油三季度均价 98美元/桶 vs. 去年三季度73美元/桶），能源、消费者服务、交通运输EPS同比增速分别达152%、149%和68%，汽车与零部件、房地产等增速也位居前列（40%、39%）。相比之下，金融承压，三季度EPS同比-19%（vs. 二季度-26%）。四大银行（美国银行、花旗银行、摩根大通、富国银行）贷款损失三季度升至46亿美元，贷款需求放缓叠加投行业务疲软也拖累利润。此外，原材料、保险、生物制药、耐用品及服装、半导体及媒体娱乐增速也回落明显。从贡献程度看，能源（4.1ppt）、可选消费（1.2ppt）、交通运输（1.1ppt）是主要贡献，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累明显。图表：三季度能源、消费者服务、交通运输盈利同比依然大幅领先，保险、媒体与娱乐等落后资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，零售、房地产、银行盈利增速抬升，但原材料、保险、生物制药等回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500 0.6%的EPS同比增速中，能源及可选消费贡献4.1和1.2ppt，通讯服务、多元金融、保险拖累2.5、1.3、1.2ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100指数-1%的EPS同比增速中，医疗保健、信息科技、通讯服务拖累明显，分别达-1.2、-1.1和-0.9ppt资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部值得一提的是，作为美股龙头的科技企业盈利连续五个季度回落并已转负，主要受弱需求、强美元、高通胀“三重压力”，管理层表示通过放缓招聘和裁员控制成本。英特尔、英伟达、META科技龙头三季度业绩表现均不及预期，三季度净利润同比分别下滑89%、72%、52%。此外，由于科技龙头海外收入占比较高（FAAMNG平均53% vs. 标普500 39%），强美元也造成负面影响。FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例也从2020年末的27%降至三季度的17.7%。许多公司表示将放缓招聘或裁员以控制成本，英特尔提出了百亿美元的成本削减方案。图表：美股科技龙头三季度业绩情况一览资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（海外收入占比为截至2021年末各公司除美国外海外收入占比）图表：美股科技龙头（FAAMNG）市值占比已从2020年9月24.2%的高位回落至18.6%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG标普500指数表现与美国金融条件有明显负相关性资料来源：Bloomberg，FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG收入占标普500非金融比例从2021年9月10.7%高位回落至三季度10.4%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：FAAMNG净利润占标普500非金融比例从2020年末27%的高位回落至三季度的17.7%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG收入同比10.2%，低于2006年以来20%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度FAAMNG净利润同比-12.6%，低于2006年以来23%的均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部需求与成本分析：高成本继续挤压利润率，需求回落下库存偏低行业议价能力更强需求降温下收入继续回落，高成本继续挤压利润率。标普500三季收入同比增长9.3%（非金融9.6%），较二季度10.5%（非金融11.7%）继续回落。分板块看，相比二季度，汽车与零部件抬升明显，但生物制药及半导体显著回落。与此同时，高成本继续挤压净利润率，标普500三季度净利润率11.3%，较二季度11.7%继续回落；非金融净利润率同样从二季度的11.3%回落至三季度的11%。扣除能源板块后，三季度净利润率已回落至10.3%（vs. 二季度的10.6%）。分板块看，消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业板块抬升明显，但软件与服务、原材料、媒体娱乐显著回落。图表：三季度标普500指数非金融收入同比回落至9.6%，与名义GDP增速回落趋势基本一致资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：相比二季度，三季度能源、交通运输、原材料收入增速回落明显，资本品、公用事业抬升资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500指数非金融板块净利润率回落至11%，非金融非能源净利润率回落至10.3%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、家庭个人用品、公用事业净利润率抬升明显，但软件与服务、媒体娱乐、原材料显著回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存偏低行业仍能依靠涨价来缓解利润端压力。例如，半导体由于库存偏高，需求趋弱下议价能力不足，销售收入明显下滑，利率端同样持续承压（三季度毛利率49.9% vs. 二季度51%，2013年以来均值52.5%；净利润率较二季度的22.3%继续回落至21.7%）。反观汽车与零部件，由于库存依然不足，企业仍可通过提价来维持利润（三季度毛利率升至14.6%，2013年以来均值12.3%；净利润率抬升至5.9%，2013年以来均值4.1%）。但我们预计明年真实衰退压力逐步放大后整体需求的趋弱也会逐渐侵蚀其盈利能力。图表：三季度库存依然偏高的半导体板块销售收入已经下滑，且毛利率继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度库存依然不足的汽车与零部件板块销售收入继续抬升，毛利率维持稳定资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部增长质量：发债放缓、现金流与在手现金回落；回购减少；杠杆持平但偿付能力下降增长质量看，三季度标普500非金融ROE从二季度的24.9%降至24.3%（受净利润率下滑拖累），非金融非能源ROE继续走低（22.7% vs. 二季度23%）。现金流量表上，三季度信用债发行趋缓，经营现金流与在手现金减少；回购回落，资本开支抬升。杠杆角度，三季度财务杠杆基本维持不变，但偿付能力下降。具体来看：图表：三季度标普500非金融板块ROE回落至24.3%；净利润率回落、资产周转率及杠杆率基本不变资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：扣除能源后，三季度ROE回落至22.7%；净利润率回落，资产周转率及杠杆率略有抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 经营性现金流趋弱，信用债发行趋缓，在手现金减少。过去12个月口径，三季度标普500非金融非能源经营性现金流同比继续回落（三季度3.8% vs. 二季度8.3%）。美联储持续紧缩下融资成本抬升使得三季度企业信用债发行进一步放缓（2961亿美元，同比回落33%）。受此影响，标普500非金融非能源在手现金规模从二季度的1.51万亿美元回落至三季度的1.48万亿美元，占总资产比例降至三季度3.8%（vs. 二季度3.9%）。分板块看，可选消费、通讯服务及信息科技在手现金占总资产比例均回落明显。图表：三季度非金融板块经营性现金流同比（TTM）继续回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、公用事业、交通运输板块经营性现金流同比领先，但可选消费、资本品同比落后资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：根据SIFMA统计，三季度企业信用债发行规模2961亿美元，同比回落32.9%，环比回落3.9%资料来源：SIFMA，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融在手现金较上季度回落至1.59万亿美元，其中信息科技、可选消费仍占比较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：能源、信息科技在手现金占总资产比例最高，但仅能源、原材料、医疗保健较上季度抬升明显资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 回购规模继续回落。标普500回购从二季度的2257亿美元降至三季度1960亿美元，占市值比例从二季度3%降至2.8%。不过，能源板块回购依然较强（占市值比例从二季度的6.1%升至三季度的6.4%），但信息科技则从二季度3.8%降至三季度的3%。对EPS贡献上，三季度回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度3.3%抬升明显；纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献略有抬升（三季度2.4% vs. 二季度2.2%）。图表：已披露的回购金额较上季度继续回落，约1960亿美元，占市值比例降至2.8%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：信息技术占30%、可选消费占16.4%、金融占12.8%，公用事业及房地产占比最低资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回购对经常性EPS增速贡献5.6%，较二季度的3.3%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：纳斯达克100回购对经常性EPS增速贡献约2.4%，较二季度的2.2%继续抬升资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部► 杠杆持平，但偿付能力下降。三季度标普500非金融整体净杠杆率（净债务/净资产）基本维持在二季度的77%，个股净杠杆率中值亦是如此（维持在二季度的60%）；但非金融整体利率备付率（EBIT/（利息费用+资本化利息））从二季度11.3降至三季度10.1（个股利息备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9）。分板块看，能源、医疗保健及房地产三季度净杠杆率有所回落，但信息科技有所抬升。图表：三季度标普500非金融个股净杠杆率中位数维持在二季度的60%；整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度标普500非金融个股利率备付率中值从二季度的9.6降至三季度的8.9，整体净杠杆率亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部库存与投资周期：进入主动去库周期；投资增加但难掩放缓格局企业进入主动去库阶段，产成品库存回落。我们在《美国主动去库存的资产含义》中指出美国已进入主动去库存阶段。三季度标普500非金融总库存继续抬升，但原材料尤其是产成品库存已逐步回落；库存同比增速也已见顶下行（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%）。主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（12个月动态EPS）平均为7%，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大。图表：三季度标普500非金融总库存规模继续抬升，原材料和产成品库存回落资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：总库存同比增速见顶回落（三季度17.5% vs. 二季度21.3%），原材料、半成品及产成品亦是如此资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：回顾历史经验，主动去库存阶段盈利下调幅度（标普500指数12个月动态EPS）平均在7%左右，2008年金融危机和2020年疫情造成的影响更大资料来源：FactSet，Haver，中金公司研究部资本开支抬升，但或难掩整体放缓格局。三季度标普500非金融资本开支同比21%，较二季度17%抬升；扣除能源后资本开支同比16.4%（vs.二季度14.7%）。绝对规模同样抬升，能源、电信服务、公用事业、科技硬件、半导体等较为明显。从宏观指标看，三季度美国非住宅固定资产投资实际同比增长3.2%（vs.二季度2.4%），规模较二季度同样走高，其中无形资产和设施投资同比回落，但设备投资（三季度同比5.3%vs.二季度2.0%），尤其是信息处理设备与运输设备抬升明显，这可能与2022年8月拜登政府分别通过通胀削减法案及芯片与科学法案的促进有关（《美国中期选举的政策与市场含义》）。不过，考虑到美国增长下滑压力加大，企业资本开支意愿也可能进一步受到抑制（多个地方联储调查未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落，《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》）。图表：资本开支同比较二季度抬升（三季度21% vs. 二季度16.6%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：非金融非能源资本开支同比抬升（三季度16.4% vs. 二季度14.7%）资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度零售、半导体、电信服务资本开支规模超过疫情前水平，但能源、资本品、消费者服务等仍有差距资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度设备投资，尤其是信息处理设备以及运输设备增速较二季度抬升明显资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部图表：多个地方联储调查的未来6个月企业资产开支预期自今年8月以来再度回落资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部综合需求、产能利用率，库存、资本开支以及杠杆情况进行打分，我们发现半导体（需求弱、库存与投资高、杠杆高）、媒体娱乐（需求弱、库存及投资高、产能低）、电信服务（需求弱、库存及杠杆高）压力更大；零售（需求弱、库存高）和交通运输（需求尚可、但库存、投资及杠杆更高，且产能较低）同样值得关注。图表：三季度电信服务、生物科技与制药、媒体与娱乐销售收入同比增速显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：相比2006年以来均值，半导体、媒体娱乐、消费者服务等库存同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度能源、交通运输、半导体等资本开支同比增速依然较高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：三季度软件与服务、耐用消费品与服装、零售等固定资产周转率显著低于2006年以来均值资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：消费者服务、科技硬件、运输、半导体等杠杆率较2006年均值更高资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：我们发现半导体、媒体娱乐、电信服务压力更大；零售和交通运输也值得关注资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）前景展望：衰退压力下美股盈利或继续下调，预计2023年-5%；市场欲扬或需先抑，二季度承受分子端压力考虑到当前美国全线的融资成本都已经超过投资回报率（例如投资级债券实际收益率11月超过实际GDP同比增速342bp；3m10s利差当前倒挂75bp；高收益债利率一度逼近10%，仅低于标普500 ROIC 265bp；30年期房贷利率一度接近7%），因此逐步走向衰退可能是大概率事件。根据3m10s利差倒挂历史经验，衰退压力可能在明年一二季度。不过，通过复盘1920年以来18轮衰退经验，深度衰退一般是由高杠杆、过紧的货币政策、或者外部冲击这三个原因造成（《复盘美国历次衰退的历史经验》），因此只要美联储能够在一季度停止加息，融资成本对投资回报率的挤压就不至于很明显，也就不至于造成非常深度的衰退（回顾历史经验，3m10s平均倒挂幅度150bp）。这一背景下，美股盈利大概率继续回落，但调整幅度不至于很大。当前我们预计2023年盈利增速或降至-5.5%，较当前市场预期的5.3%仍有下行空间。图表：投资级债券实际收益率   – 实际GDP同比增速利差10月突破阈值，11月末达342bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：3m10s利差于11月初开始倒挂，当前已倒挂~75bp资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前美国高收益债收益率8.4%，与美股ROIC利差约265bp资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：当前30年期及15年期抵押贷款利率分别达6.5%和5.8%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前市场一致预期标普500指数2023年盈利增速5.7%，2024年9.5%资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部现在仍不便宜的估值叠加明年一二季度衰退压力增加，可能使美股欲扬先抑。当前标普500 12个月动态P/E为17.7倍，高于1990年以来16.2倍的历史均值。当前紧缩退坡和美债利率上行风险消除给美股提供了利率和风险偏好支撑。但明年二季度衰退压力增加下可能无法立刻得到分母端的补偿，市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机（《推演美联储政策与资产轮动的三个阶段》）。假设股权风险溢价升至9月末低点对应的2.7%和~3.8%的10年美债利率，标普500合理估值为~15倍。我们基于增长和流动性测算的合理估值也大体相当（48%的ISM制造业PMI与~3.8%的10年美债利率对应合理估值14.5~15倍），隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%（《海外市场2023年展望：欲扬或需先抑》。）图表：标普500指数12个月动态估值17.7倍，高于1990年以来均值资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数隐含股权风险溢价已回落至2.2%的相对低位资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：标普500指数盈利调情绪自今年6月中旬转负后持续回落资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：明年二季度市场波动可能倒逼出宽松预期后，美债利率的快速回落可能逐步给成长股带来更大配置时机资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：当前标普500指数隐含支撑位较当前低10~15%。但我们预计年底点位比当前高~5%资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部（偏红则表示压力更高）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964327074,"gmtCreate":1670083783698,"gmtModify":1676538300126,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964327074","repostId":"2288911500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288911500","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670038838,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2288911500?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 11:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Report: The U.S. court officially withdrew Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288911500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling stated, \"The aforementioned third alternative indictment against defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be dismissed, and no new lawsuit can be filed.\" Reuters reported that the United States has formally closed this case, which had strained US-China relations. According to Reuters, following a request from U.S. prosecutors, a U.S. court officially dropped charges of \"bank fraud\" and other charges against Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time, and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dismissed the charges against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time, including \"bank fraud\". Reuters reports that the United States has officially closed the case, which has strained US-China relations.</p><p>According to the Canadian Press, Ann Donnelly stated in a written ruling: \"The aforementioned third alternative indictment against defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be dismissed, and no new lawsuit can be filed.\"</p><p>According to AFP, the U.S. Department of Justice also stated on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou has completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and has not violated any of the agreement's terms. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) with the U.S. Department of Justice. Under the agreement, the U.S. agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after her arrest in Canada on a U.S. arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>U.S. Attorney for the District of Lincoln, Carolyn Pokorny, wrote to Ann Donnelly, stating that since there was no information that Meng Wanzhou had violated the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA), \"I hereby request (the court) to dismiss the third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou in this case.\"</p><p>As previously reported, on December 1, 2018, Meng Wanzhou was detained by the Canadian government without cause on the grounds that she was \"at the request of the United States\" while transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada. The United States accused her of misleading HSBC regarding Huawei's business in Iran, thus initiating a long legal and diplomatic battle between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, on September 25, 2021, Meng Wanzhou left Canada on a chartered flight and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>In September 2021, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. The facts have already fully demonstrated that this is a political persecution of Chinese citizens, with the aim of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are pure fabrication. What the United States and Canada have done is typical of arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Report: The U.S. court officially withdrew Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReport: The U.S. court officially withdrew Meng Wanzhou's \"bank fraud\" and other charges\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The written ruling stated, \"The aforementioned third alternative indictment against defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be dismissed, and no new lawsuit can be filed.\" Reuters reported that the United States has formally closed this case, which had strained US-China relations. According to Reuters, following a request from U.S. prosecutors, a U.S. court officially dropped charges of \"bank fraud\" and other charges against Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time, and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>According to reports, U.S. District Judge Ann Donnelly dismissed the charges against Meng Wanzhou on the 2nd local time, including \"bank fraud\". Reuters reports that the United States has officially closed the case, which has strained US-China relations.</p><p>According to the Canadian Press, Ann Donnelly stated in a written ruling: \"The aforementioned third alternative indictment against defendant Meng Wanzhou is hereby ordered to be dismissed, and no new lawsuit can be filed.\"</p><p>According to AFP, the U.S. Department of Justice also stated on the 2nd that Meng Wanzhou has completed the \"Deferred Prosecution Agreement\" (DPA) and has not violated any of the agreement's terms. Therefore, the charges have been completely dropped and the lawsuit cannot be refiled.</p><p>In September 2021, Meng Wanzhou reached a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA) with the U.S. Department of Justice. Under the agreement, the U.S. agreed to drop the charges against Meng Wanzhou on December 1, 2022, four years after her arrest in Canada on a U.S. arrest warrant.</p><p>December 1, local time, New York<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">Brooke</a>U.S. Attorney for the District of Lincoln, Carolyn Pokorny, wrote to Ann Donnelly, stating that since there was no information that Meng Wanzhou had violated the Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA), \"I hereby request (the court) to dismiss the third alternative indictment against the defendant Meng Wanzhou in this case.\"</p><p>As previously reported, on December 1, 2018, Meng Wanzhou was detained by the Canadian government without cause on the grounds that she was \"at the request of the United States\" while transiting through Vancouver Airport in Canada. The United States accused her of misleading HSBC regarding Huawei's business in Iran, thus initiating a long legal and diplomatic battle between China and the United States and Canada. Meng Wanzhou was also illegally detained by Canada for 1,028 days.</p><p>Thanks to the unremitting efforts of all parties, on September 25, 2021, Meng Wanzhou left Canada on a chartered flight and successfully returned to her motherland.</p><p>In September 2021, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying emphasized that China's position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. The facts have already fully demonstrated that this is a political persecution of Chinese citizens, with the aim of suppressing Chinese high-tech enterprises. The allegations of so-called \"fraud\" against Ms. Meng Wanzhou are pure fabrication. What the United States and Canada have done is typical of arbitrary detention.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0b6d1912791f75d7ff43e981e7e05","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288911500","content_text":"书面裁决表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。据路透社报道，在美国检方提出请求后，美国法院当地时间2日正式撤销对华为公司首席财务官孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控，且不能重新提起诉讼。据报道，美国地区法官安·唐纳利当地时间2日撤销了对孟晚舟的“银行欺诈”等罪名的指控。路透社称，美国方面正式结束了这一导致中美关系紧张的案件。另据加拿大通讯社报道，安·唐纳利在一份书面裁决中表示：“兹命令撤销上述对被告孟晚舟提出的第三次替代起诉，且不能重新提起诉讼。”据法新社报道，美国司法部2日也表示，孟晚舟已完成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)且在协议期限内未有违反行为，因此指控已完全撤销，且不能重新提起诉讼。2021年9月，孟晚舟与美国司法部达成“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)。根据该协议，美方同意在2022年12月1日，也就是孟晚舟因为美国的逮捕令而在加拿大被捕之日的4年后，撤销对她的指控。当地时间12月1日，纽约布鲁克林地区联邦检察官卡洛琳·波科尔尼致信安·唐纳利，称由于没有孟晚舟违反“暂缓起诉协议”(DPA)的信息，“谨提请(法院)撤销本案中对被告孟晚舟的第三次替代起诉”。据此前报道，2018年12月1日，孟晚舟途经加拿大温哥华机场转机时，被加拿大政府以“应美方要求”为由无端拘押，美国指控她在华为的伊朗业务问题上误导汇丰银行，由此开启了中国与美加两国漫长的司法与外交博弈，孟晚舟也被加拿大非法拘押长达1028天。经各方不懈努力，2021年9月25日，孟晚舟乘坐包机离开加拿大，顺利回到祖国。中国外交部发言人华春莹2021年9月曾强调：中方在孟晚舟事件上立场是一贯的、明确的。事实早已充分证明，这是一起针对中国公民的政治迫害事件，目的是打压中国的高技术企业。对孟晚舟女士所谓“欺诈”的指控纯属捏造。美国、加拿大所作所为是典型的任意拘押。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964324236,"gmtCreate":1670083732325,"gmtModify":1676538300117,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964324236","repostId":"2288916102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965216858,"gmtCreate":1669957690275,"gmtModify":1676538278430,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965216858","repostId":"1125738659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125738659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1669950272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125738659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-02 11:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Trillion-dollar Apple, \"heavily indebted\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125738659","media":"市界","summary":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPh","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Besides the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife technique\" is also largely reflected in...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>On its balance sheet, Apple, busy avoiding taxes, simultaneously adopted a relatively aggressive buyback and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily increasing its market value, it also had to face an increasingly high debt ratio. Therefore, applying more precise \"knife tactics\" to the iPhone while simultaneously searching for the \"next generation of iPhones\" has become a problem that Cook needs to address both. Apple has been in a lot of trouble lately.</p><p>On November 29, after criticizing Apple, Musk posted a poll on his personal social media that \"Apple should publish all censorship measures affecting other customers.\" Of the nearly 2.23 million votes cast, 85% chose \"Yes.\"</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's 30% commission on the App Store and stated that Apple had threatened to remove its newly acquired social media App from the App Store.</p><p>The brief farce ultimately ended with Cook taking Musk on a tour of Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Spotify CEO Daniel Eck quickly took over Musk's attack on Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprived consumers of choice and unreasonably obtained the majority of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>However, this is clearly not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Returning to the present, Apple's more genuine and immediate \"anxiety\" comes from the unfavorable iPhone 14 series, while its deeper \"anxiety\" is hidden among the hidden financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market capitalization of over $2 trillion, total assets of $352.8 billion, annual revenue of $394.3 billion, and net profit of $99.8 billion, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from popular belief, and this is actually due to problems related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategies.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's debt-to-asset ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the average debt-to-asset ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, was 52.92% in fiscal year 2021. Apple ranked second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to PepsiCo's 82.52%. the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average debt-to-asset ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization is 55.71%, with the debt ratio reaching 92.14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Whether compared vertically or horizontally, Apple's debt ratio is not low. Looking at this indicator alone, it is even more aggressive than many highly leveraged real estate companies in China.</p><p>Behind its extremely high debt ratio, Apple had $120.069 billion in interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022, including $98.959 billion in long-term term debt and $11.128 billion in short-term term debt.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite full – at the same time, its cash and equivalents and marketable securities totaled $169.109 billion, of which cash was $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term marketable securities were $120.805 billion and $24.658 billion, respectively.</p><p>Specifically, Apple's securities holdings include $23.409 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond, $15.749 billion in non-U.S. government bonds, and $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises: why is Apple so popular globally?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>It has the second largest mobile phone shipment volume and a lot of cash and bonds in its account, yet it still needs to borrow so much money.</p><p>In fact, Apple has always been troubled by the problem of \"tax avoidance\" because US tax law stipulates that if Apple wants to repatriate its overseas income to the United States, it must pay a 35% tax to the US government (before the tax reform). However, Apple has always resisted this, believing that an excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>Doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have long existed. Apple CEO Tim Cook even engaged in a verbal battle with senators at a hearing, refuting what he believed to be the unreasonableness of US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas profits still cannot return smoothly to the United States. Instead, they are concentrated in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then, through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rates are achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to American accounts, but after Cook took over, Apple had to spend huge sums of money to repurchase company stock every year in order to manage its market capitalization. At the same time, it changed from no dividends during the Jobs era to a high dividend payout ratio, all of which required a large amount of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, Apple spent a total of $553.1 billion on stock buybacks from 2013 to 2022, and its cash flow statement shows that Dividend spent a total of $131.9 billion since 2011.</p><p>This resulted in Apple needing to continuously borrow money for share buybacks and dividends while maintaining a large amount of cash and securities on its books. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly between 2013 and 2017, ultimately leading to the current situation of \"large deposits and large loans\".</p><p>However, this is not the fundamental reason for Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically speaking, the debt-to-asset ratio = total liabilities / total assets. The debt-to-asset ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the growth rate of total assets. So when will this happen? Simply put, it's when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple earns more money than it spends each year, its net assets will increase, and its overall debt ratio will be controlled or even reduced.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and buyback expenses with the sum of its annual net operating and investing activities reveals that in most years, Apple's spending on dividends and buybacks exceeds the net cash generated from operating and investing activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As this situation continued to accumulate, Apple's asset growth rate lagged far behind its liability growth rate, and its debt ratio eventually climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Tim Cook officially took over as CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets increased by $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities increased by $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully exploring the commercial value that the iPhone brings to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife tactics\" are also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet—Apple, busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive buyback and dividend strategy, resulting in it steadily increasing its market value while also facing an increasingly high debt ratio.</p><p>The more pressing issue is that, in order to return to the safe boundary of \"earning more than it spends,\" Apple's current trump card remains the iPhone. Therefore, applying more precise \"knife tactics\" to the iPhone while simultaneously searching for \"the next generation of iPhones\" has become a problem that Cook needs to address both.</p><p><b>The last wave of iPhone dividends?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>Data released by market research firm Strategy Analytics shows that although total smartphone sales fell by 35% year-on-year during the Double Eleven shopping festival, the iPhone took the top spot with 3.5 million units sold. The latest data shows that Apple's monthly market share in China reached a record high of 25% in October 2022, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not well-received, and there was even a lot of criticism.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included articles such as \"iPhone 14 has ruined Huaqiangbei\", \"iPhone 14 'harvests' scalpers\", and \"Does squeezing toothpaste make the iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy headlines almost overwhelmingly reveal pessimistic sentiment towards Apple's new phone, with everything from configuration to design considered to have obvious pain points.</p><p>Long-time Apple fan Luo Yonghao also joked after purchasing the new phone: \"Apple has always said that real phones look better than rendered images, but in recent years my 'American subsidiary' hasn't been very effective either. This is a good example. The so-called Dynamic Island design isn't as beautiful as it looks in the promotional videos. The Android camp has come up with a small black dot front camera in the center that doesn't affect the aesthetics, a pop-up front camera, and a visually perfect hidden front camera under the screen. Why do something like applying poop on your face first, and then adjusting the color of the poop to almost match foundation?\"</p><p>But whether it was Dynamic Island, who was not favored, or Cook's \"knife tactics,\" although he ruined the iPhone 14 standard version, Cook did successfully attract more demand to the Pro model with higher configurations and prices. In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro were the first and second best-selling models in China, respectively, but the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series standard versions had previously sold better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Visual China</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is gradually expanding its revenue footprint in the ecosystem beyond hardware products such as iPhones and Macs. Its revenue from iTunes, software and services increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022, and its share of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Considering the gross profit margin of Xiaomi's Internet services business of over 70%, Apple's business theoretically has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are all ways Apple is \"open source\".</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it's the aversion of tech giants like Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax or the fading aura of the original iPhone under Cook's business tactics, these are all prices that Apple has to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a recent mobile phone advertisement, Apple has once again become the target of ridicule. A man sits against a wall with a storefront that looks like an Apple retail store behind him. The store employee asks him what he is doing, and the man insinuates, \"Samsung has foldable phones and epic cameras.\" The store employee responds with \"We're waiting,\" subtly mocking Apple's delay in releasing a foldable phone.</p><p>This is not the first time the two sides have \"clashed sideways\" in an advertisement. In past advertisements, Samsung has also teased Apple's abrupt notch screen, criticized Apple's shortcomings such as lag, frequent bugs, and lack of waterproofing, and used plot comparisons to highlight the inability to charge and use headphones at the same time, basically listing all of Apple's historical shortcomings.</p><p>Fortunately, looking back, most of the bugs are history, and the subtle sarcasm in Samsung's advertisements has, to some extent, become a dramatic force urging Apple to improve.</p><p>In the coming years, how to ensure that the iPhone and its ecosystem reap the last wave of benefits in the gradually shrinking smartphone industry with more precise \"knife techniques\" and relatively limited micro-innovations may be one of the important issues Cook is considering right now. However, at the same time, finding the \"next generation of iPhones\" outside of the iPhone is also of paramount importance for Apple's business empire to continue.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations mainly include Apple's smart car and Apple's AR/VR glasses. The former, after eight years of \"difficult production,\" is still far from being released, while the latter has received increasingly frequent reports recently and is about to emerge amidst widespread attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source: Visual China)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is more profound than most people imagine. At WWDC 2017, it launched the AR development platform ARKit, which allows developers to create augmented reality applications for iPhones and iPads. Once Apple's AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new platforms.</p><p>For example, the LiDAR LiDAR used in iPads and iPhone Pros, because of its depth-of-field perception capabilities, not only improves the camera focusing capabilities of existing products, but also lays a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone's current camera-based text recognition and search function will greatly unleash its potential if applied to future AR/VR devices.</p><p>After WWDC 2022, Cook stated in an interview that the AR field is a key focus for Apple every day, with more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to follow us, and you will see the products we bring.\"</p><p>Based on existing information, Apple's AR team likely has two solutions in hand: one is a headset aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000. Another option is likely to be AR glasses that look closer to regular glasses, corresponding to augmented reality virtual experiences, but their launch time should be after VR headsets.</p><p>With the smartphone market experiencing stagnant growth, whether Apple's AR/VR glasses, which are being developed, can take over the baton from the iPhone may be Apple's anxiety for the next few years.</p><p>The question worth considering is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trillion-dollar Apple, \"heavily indebted\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrillion-dollar Apple, \"heavily indebted\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-02 11:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Besides the iPhone, Cook's precise \"knife technique\" is also largely reflected in...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>On its balance sheet, Apple, busy avoiding taxes, simultaneously adopted a relatively aggressive buyback and dividend strategy. As a result, while steadily increasing its market value, it also had to face an increasingly high debt ratio. Therefore, applying more precise \"knife tactics\" to the iPhone while simultaneously searching for the \"next generation of iPhones\" has become a problem that Cook needs to address both. Apple has been in a lot of trouble lately.</p><p>On November 29, after criticizing Apple, Musk posted a poll on his personal social media that \"Apple should publish all censorship measures affecting other customers.\" Of the nearly 2.23 million votes cast, 85% chose \"Yes.\"</p><p>Prior to this, Musk questioned Apple's 30% commission on the App Store and stated that Apple had threatened to remove its newly acquired social media App from the App Store.</p><p>The brief farce ultimately ended with Cook taking Musk on a tour of Apple headquarters and reaching a settlement. But Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Spotify CEO Daniel Eck quickly took over Musk's attack on Apple, publicly stating that Apple's App Store deprived consumers of choice and unreasonably obtained the majority of the ecosystem's profits.</p><p>However, this is clearly not the first time Apple has faced similar accusations. Returning to the present, Apple's more genuine and immediate \"anxiety\" comes from the unfavorable iPhone 14 series, while its deeper \"anxiety\" is hidden among the hidden financial report data.</p><p><b>High debt ratio</b></p><p>As a global technology giant with a total market capitalization of over $2 trillion, total assets of $352.8 billion, annual revenue of $394.3 billion, and net profit of $99.8 billion, Apple's debt ratio is deviating from popular belief, and this is actually due to problems related to \"tax avoidance\" and business strategies.</p><p>As of the end of September 2022, Apple's debt-to-asset ratio reached 85.64%, the highest level in its history.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee42adcc88f7ef5b59199bd59ec576ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"754\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In comparison, the average debt-to-asset ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization on Nasdaq, where Apple is located, was 52.92% in fiscal year 2021. Apple ranked second with a debt ratio of 82.03%, second only to PepsiCo's 82.52%. the same period<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYSE\">NYSE</a>The average debt-to-asset ratio of the top ten listed companies by market capitalization is 55.71%, with the debt ratio reaching 92.14%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It belongs to the banking sector and is not comparable to Apple, followed by a debt ratio of 65.33%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Walmart</a>。</p><p>Whether compared vertically or horizontally, Apple's debt ratio is not low. Looking at this indicator alone, it is even more aggressive than many highly leveraged real estate companies in China.</p><p>Behind its extremely high debt ratio, Apple had $120.069 billion in interest-bearing debt as of the end of September 2022, including $98.959 billion in long-term term debt and $11.128 billion in short-term term debt.</p><p>At the same time, Apple's pockets are also quite full – at the same time, its cash and equivalents and marketable securities totaled $169.109 billion, of which cash was $23.646 billion, and long-term and short-term marketable securities were $120.805 billion and $24.658 billion, respectively.</p><p>Specifically, Apple's securities holdings include $23.409 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond, $15.749 billion in non-U.S. government bonds, and $79.45 billion in corporate bonds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fca08b4a81d498dc914b55975c571e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>(Source: Announcement)</p><p>So the question arises: why is Apple so popular globally?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>It has the second largest mobile phone shipment volume and a lot of cash and bonds in its account, yet it still needs to borrow so much money.</p><p>In fact, Apple has always been troubled by the problem of \"tax avoidance\" because US tax law stipulates that if Apple wants to repatriate its overseas income to the United States, it must pay a 35% tax to the US government (before the tax reform). However, Apple has always resisted this, believing that an excessively high tax rate is unreasonable.</p><p>Doubts about Apple's \"tax avoidance\" have long existed. Apple CEO Tim Cook even engaged in a verbal battle with senators at a hearing, refuting what he believed to be the unreasonableness of US tax law.</p><p>But the problem has not been solved. Apple's overseas profits still cannot return smoothly to the United States. Instead, they are concentrated in Ireland through a series of tax avoidance operations, and then, through a series of special agreements between Apple and the Irish government, ultra-low tax rates are achieved.</p><p>Overseas money cannot be returned to American accounts, but after Cook took over, Apple had to spend huge sums of money to repurchase company stock every year in order to manage its market capitalization. At the same time, it changed from no dividends during the Jobs era to a high dividend payout ratio, all of which required a large amount of cash.</p><p>According to market statistics, Apple spent a total of $553.1 billion on stock buybacks from 2013 to 2022, and its cash flow statement shows that Dividend spent a total of $131.9 billion since 2011.</p><p>This resulted in Apple needing to continuously borrow money for share buybacks and dividends while maintaining a large amount of cash and securities on its books. Its interest-bearing debt increased significantly between 2013 and 2017, ultimately leading to the current situation of \"large deposits and large loans\".</p><p>However, this is not the fundamental reason for Apple's rising debt ratio. Logically speaking, the debt-to-asset ratio = total liabilities / total assets. The debt-to-asset ratio will only rise when the growth rate of total liabilities is greater than the growth rate of total assets. So when will this happen? Simply put, it's when you spend more than you earn.</p><p>Specifically, when debt remains at a relatively stable level, as long as Apple earns more money than it spends each year, its net assets will increase, and its overall debt ratio will be controlled or even reduced.</p><p>However, comparing Apple's dividend and buyback expenses with the sum of its annual net operating and investing activities reveals that in most years, Apple's spending on dividends and buybacks exceeds the net cash generated from operating and investing activities. This means that Apple often doesn't make enough money to spend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b304f2fe46f8c5e46b402b342684c74\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As this situation continued to accumulate, Apple's asset growth rate lagged far behind its liability growth rate, and its debt ratio eventually climbed to a high level of 85.5%.</p><p>In 2011, Tim Cook officially took over as CEO of Apple. From 2013 to 2022, Apple's total assets increased by $145.755 billion, an increase of 70.41%, but its liabilities increased by $218.632 billion, an increase of 261.99%.</p><p>From this perspective, in addition to fully exploring the commercial value that the iPhone brings to Apple, Cook's precise \"knife tactics\" are also largely reflected in Apple's balance sheet—Apple, busy avoiding taxes, has adopted a relatively aggressive buyback and dividend strategy, resulting in it steadily increasing its market value while also facing an increasingly high debt ratio.</p><p>The more pressing issue is that, in order to return to the safe boundary of \"earning more than it spends,\" Apple's current trump card remains the iPhone. Therefore, applying more precise \"knife tactics\" to the iPhone while simultaneously searching for \"the next generation of iPhones\" has become a problem that Cook needs to address both.</p><p><b>The last wave of iPhone dividends?</b></p><p>Since the launch of the first-generation iPhone in 2007, as of the end of September 2022, global iPhone shipments have exceeded 2.3 billion units, generating approximately 10.84 trillion yuan in revenue for Apple.</p><p>Data released by market research firm Strategy Analytics shows that although total smartphone sales fell by 35% year-on-year during the Double Eleven shopping festival, the iPhone took the top spot with 3.5 million units sold. The latest data shows that Apple's monthly market share in China reached a record high of 25% in October 2022, and it has been the largest mobile phone brand manufacturer in China for two consecutive months.</p><p>Prior to this, the iPhone 14 series was not well-received, and there was even a lot of criticism.</p><p>Since its release in October, reports related to the iPhone 14 have included articles such as \"iPhone 14 has ruined Huaqiangbei\", \"iPhone 14 'harvests' scalpers\", and \"Does squeezing toothpaste make the iPhone 14 suffer?\"... The fancy headlines almost overwhelmingly reveal pessimistic sentiment towards Apple's new phone, with everything from configuration to design considered to have obvious pain points.</p><p>Long-time Apple fan Luo Yonghao also joked after purchasing the new phone: \"Apple has always said that real phones look better than rendered images, but in recent years my 'American subsidiary' hasn't been very effective either. This is a good example. The so-called Dynamic Island design isn't as beautiful as it looks in the promotional videos. The Android camp has come up with a small black dot front camera in the center that doesn't affect the aesthetics, a pop-up front camera, and a visually perfect hidden front camera under the screen. Why do something like applying poop on your face first, and then adjusting the color of the poop to almost match foundation?\"</p><p>But whether it was Dynamic Island, who was not favored, or Cook's \"knife tactics,\" although he ruined the iPhone 14 standard version, Cook did successfully attract more demand to the Pro model with higher configurations and prices. In October, the iPhone 14 Pro Max and iPhone 14 Pro were the first and second best-selling models in China, respectively, but the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series standard versions had previously sold better.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24eeada69a9d99a74544ffeee60fd8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">Visual China</a>）</p><p>In addition, Apple is gradually expanding its revenue footprint in the ecosystem beyond hardware products such as iPhones and Macs. Its revenue from iTunes, software and services increased from 76 billion yuan in fiscal year 2012 to 546.3 billion yuan in fiscal year 2022, and its share of total revenue also increased from 7.66% to 19.81%. Considering the gross profit margin of Xiaomi's Internet services business of over 70%, Apple's business theoretically has a higher profit margin than hardware.</p><p>These are all ways Apple is \"open source\".</p><p>Under this line of thinking, whether it's the aversion of tech giants like Musk and Zuckerberg to Apple's tax or the fading aura of the original iPhone under Cook's business tactics, these are all prices that Apple has to bear.</p><p>In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>In a recent mobile phone advertisement, Apple has once again become the target of ridicule. A man sits against a wall with a storefront that looks like an Apple retail store behind him. The store employee asks him what he is doing, and the man insinuates, \"Samsung has foldable phones and epic cameras.\" The store employee responds with \"We're waiting,\" subtly mocking Apple's delay in releasing a foldable phone.</p><p>This is not the first time the two sides have \"clashed sideways\" in an advertisement. In past advertisements, Samsung has also teased Apple's abrupt notch screen, criticized Apple's shortcomings such as lag, frequent bugs, and lack of waterproofing, and used plot comparisons to highlight the inability to charge and use headphones at the same time, basically listing all of Apple's historical shortcomings.</p><p>Fortunately, looking back, most of the bugs are history, and the subtle sarcasm in Samsung's advertisements has, to some extent, become a dramatic force urging Apple to improve.</p><p>In the coming years, how to ensure that the iPhone and its ecosystem reap the last wave of benefits in the gradually shrinking smartphone industry with more precise \"knife techniques\" and relatively limited micro-innovations may be one of the important issues Cook is considering right now. However, at the same time, finding the \"next generation of iPhones\" outside of the iPhone is also of paramount importance for Apple's business empire to continue.</p><p>The most anticipated presentations mainly include Apple's smart car and Apple's AR/VR glasses. The former, after eight years of \"difficult production,\" is still far from being released, while the latter has received increasingly frequent reports recently and is about to emerge amidst widespread attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c0195994f3458221ed1282924f5284\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Image source: Visual China)</p><p>In fact, Apple's layout in the AR field is more profound than most people imagine. At WWDC 2017, it launched the AR development platform ARKit, which allows developers to create augmented reality applications for iPhones and iPads. Once Apple's AR/VR is launched, most of ARKit's capabilities and corresponding applications can also be presented on new platforms.</p><p>For example, the LiDAR LiDAR used in iPads and iPhone Pros, because of its depth-of-field perception capabilities, not only improves the camera focusing capabilities of existing products, but also lays a solid foundation for the spatial ranging capabilities necessary for future AR/VR devices. For example, the iPhone's current camera-based text recognition and search function will greatly unleash its potential if applied to future AR/VR devices.</p><p>After WWDC 2022, Cook stated in an interview that the AR field is a key focus for Apple every day, with more than 1,400 ARKit apps in the App Store. He also said, \"Please continue to follow us, and you will see the products we bring.\"</p><p>Based on existing information, Apple's AR team likely has two solutions in hand: one is a headset aimed at VR, which corresponds to an immersive virtual experience, and the price may reach $2,000. Another option is likely to be AR glasses that look closer to regular glasses, corresponding to augmented reality virtual experiences, but their launch time should be after VR headsets.</p><p>With the smartphone market experiencing stagnant growth, whether Apple's AR/VR glasses, which are being developed, can take over the baton from the iPhone may be Apple's anxiety for the next few years.</p><p>The question worth considering is, with Apple's debt ratio approaching 90%, how much room for Cook to maneuver in the future?</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd73a3a7ee0028660eb13b44cbd5058","relate_stocks":{"IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","AAPL":"苹果","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4573":"虚拟现实","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125738659","content_text":"除了iPhone，库克精准的“刀法”很大程度也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。苹果最近可以说是麻烦不断。11月29日，马斯克在炮轰苹果后，于个人社交媒体上发出一项关于“苹果应该公布所有影响其他客户的审查措施”的投票，近223万人次投票中有85%选择了“Yes”。在此之前，马斯克对苹果App Store高达30%的抽成提出了质疑，并表示苹果曾发出威胁，称可能将自己刚刚收购的社交媒体应用从App Store下架。短暂的闹剧，最终以库克带着马斯克参观苹果总部且达成和解落下帷幕。但很快脸书创始人扎克伯克和流媒体音乐服务Spotify CEO丹尼尔·埃克就接过了马斯克炮轰苹果的接力棒，公开表示苹果App Store剥夺了消费者的选择，不合理地获得生态系统的大多数利润。但类似的指控显然不是苹果第一次面对，回到当下，苹果更为真切和近距离的“焦虑”来自不被看好的iPhone 14系列，而更为深远的“焦虑”，则藏于隐秘的财报数据之间。高企的负债率作为一家总市值超过2万亿美元，总资产规模3528亿美元，年收入3943亿美元，净利润998亿美元的全球科技巨头，苹果的负债率正在偏离大众的普遍认知，而这背后其实是与“避税”和经营策略相关的难题。截至2022年9月末，苹果资产负债率达到85.64%，是其历史上最高水平。相比较而言，苹果所在的纳斯达克，市值前十的上市公司2021财年资产负债率平均值为52.92%，其中苹果以82.03%的负债率位列第二，仅次于百事的82.52%；同期纽交所市值前十的上市公司资产负债率平均值为55.71%，其中负债率达到92.14%的摩根大通属于银行板块，与苹果并无可比性，其次就是负债率达到65.33%的沃尔玛。不论纵向比较还是横向比较，苹果的负债率都不算低，单看这一指标甚至比国内许多高杠杆发展的房地产企业更为激进。极高的负债率背后，苹果截至2022年9月末的带息债务为1200.69亿美元，其中长期定期债务989.59亿美元，短期定期债务111.28亿美元。与此同时，苹果的腰包也是相当鼓——同一时间点其账面现金及等价物、有价证券合计1691.09亿美元，其中现金236.46亿美元，长期和短期有价证券分别为1208.05亿美元和246.58亿美元。具体来看，苹果持有的有价证券中，包括234.09亿美元的美国国债，157.49亿美元的非美国政府债券，以及794.5亿美元的公司债券。（来源：公告）那么问题来了，为什么苹果在全球范围内智能手机出货量第二，且有大把现金和债券放在账上，却还要借那么多钱呢？事实上苹果一直受困于“避税”的难题，因为美国税法规定，苹果的境外所得如果要汇回美国，需要向美国政府缴纳35%的税（税改前），但苹果方面对此一直是抗拒的，认为过高的税率并不合理。外界对于苹果“避税”的质疑长久地存在着，苹果CEO库克还曾在听证会上“舌战参议员”，回击在其看来美国税法的不合理之处。但问题并未得到解决。苹果在海外的收益还是不能顺畅地回到美国，而是经过一系列避税操作被汇集到爱尔兰，再通过苹果和爱尔兰政府的一系列特殊协议，实现超低税率的纳税。海外的钱回不到美国账户，但库克接任后苹果为了进行市值管理，每年都需要斥巨资回购公司股票，同时也从乔布斯时代的不分红转变为高比例分红，这些都需要大笔的现金。市界统计，2013年到2022年，苹果在股票回购上共花费了5531亿美元，2011年以来现金流量表显示的股息支出合计达到1319亿美元。这就导致苹果在账面保有大量现金和证券的同时，需要不断借钱用于回购和分红，其带息债务在2013至2017年间大幅提升，最终形成如今“大存大贷”的局面。但这还不是苹果负债率升高的根本原因。从逻辑上看，资产负债率=总负债/总资产，只有当总负债增长幅度大于总资产增幅时，资产负债率才会上升，那么什么时候会出现这种情况？简单来说就是花的比赚的多的时候。具体来说，在负债保持在一个相对稳定水平时，只要苹果每年赚的钱比花的钱多，那么净资产就会增长，整体负债率也会得到控制甚至有所下降。但比较苹果分红和回购支出与每年经营活动和投资活动净额之和，会发现大多数年份苹果用于分红和回购的支出，都大于经营活动和投资活动产生的现金净额。这就意味着苹果赚的钱常常不够花。这种状态的不断积累下，苹果的资产增长速度远不及负债的增长速度，负债率也最终爬升至85.5%的高水平。2011年库克正式接过苹果CEO之位，2013年以来一直到2022年，苹果总资产增加了1457.55亿美元，增幅70.41%，但负债增加了2186.32亿美元，增幅达到261.99%。从这个角度看，除了充分挖掘iPhone给苹果带来的商业价值，库克的精准“刀法”很大程度上也体现在苹果的资产负债表中——忙着避税的苹果，同时采取了相对激进的回购和分红策略，结果就是其在稳步推升市值的同时，也需要面对越来越高的负债率。更为急迫的问题在于，想要回到“赚的比花的多”这样的安全界限内，苹果当前的杀手锏依然是iPhone，于是一边对iPhone施以更精准的“刀法”，一边寻找“下一个时代的iPhone”，成为库克需要两手抓的问题。iPhone的最后一波红利？自2007年第一代iPhone面市以来，截至2022年9月末iPhone在全球的出货量已累计超过23亿台，为苹果创收约10.84万亿元。市场调研机构Strategy Analytics 公布的数据显示，双十一期间智能手机总销量虽然同比下降35%，但iPhone却以350万台的销量摘下桂冠。最新数据显示，2022年10月苹果在国内的月度市场份额达到25%的历史最高水平，且连续两个月是国内第一大手机品牌厂商。在此之前，iPhone 14系列并不被看好，甚至吐槽颇多。自10月份发布以来，与iPhone 14相关的报道包括《iPhone 14 把华强北坑惨了》《iPhone 14“收割”黄牛》《挤牙膏让iPhone 14吃到苦头？》……花式标题几乎一边倒地透露唱衰苹果新机的情绪，从配置到设计都被认为有着明显的痛点。“老果粉”罗永浩也在入手新机后调侃道：“苹果过去一直是真机比渲染图好看，但这些年我那个‘美国子公司’也不太灵了，这次就是很好的一个例子，所谓灵动岛的设计并不像宣传视频里那么漂亮。安卓阵营把不影响美感的居中小黑点前摄，升降式前摄，以及视觉完美的屏下隐藏式前摄全都搞出来了，为什么要做这种先在脸上涂屎，再把屎的颜色调整得跟粉底差不多的事儿？”但不管是不被看好的灵动岛，还是库克的“刀法”，虽然玩坏了iPhone 14标准版，但库克确实成功将更多需求吸引至配置和售价更高的Pro机型上——10月份iPhone 14 Pro Max和iPhone 14 Pro分别是国内畅销机型中的第一和第二，但此前iPhone 12和iPhone 13系列标准版一直销量更高。（图片来源：视觉中国）除此之外，苹果也在iPhone、Mac等硬件产品外逐渐扩大自己在生态中的收入版图——其来自于iTunes、软件和服务的收入从2012财年的760亿元增至2022财年5463亿元，占总收入比重也从7.66%提高至19.81%，参照小米互联网服务业务70%以上的毛利率，苹果这部分业务理论上也有着相比硬件更高的利润空间。这些都是苹果“开源”的方式。在这一思路下，不管是马斯克、扎克伯格等科技巨头对苹果税的反感，还是在库克商业刀法下初代iPhone光环的消磨殆尽，事实上都是苹果需要承受的代价。在三星近日发布的一则手机广告里，苹果再次成为被嘲讽的对象——一个男人坐在一堵墙头，背后是一个长得像苹果零售店的铺面，店里员工问他在做什么，男人含沙射影地说道，“在三星那边，有可折叠的手机和史诗般的相机”，店员则回应以“我们等待”，暗嘲苹果迟迟未推出折叠屏手机。这并非双方第一次在广告里“侧面交锋”。过往的广告中，三星还调戏过苹果突兀的刘海屏，埋汰过苹果的卡顿、bug频发和不防水等缺陷，还用情节对比凸显无法同时充电和使用耳机的旧代苹果，基本上把苹果历来的缺陷都数落了一遍。好在如果回头看，其中大部分bug都成了历史，三星广告中的暗讽某种程度上也成为督促苹果改进的一种戏剧性力量。在接下来几年内，如何以更加精准的“刀法”和相对有限的微创新，让iPhone 及其生态在智能手机这个逐渐萎缩的行业里吃尽最后一波红利，或许是库克眼下考虑的重要问题之一，但与此同时在iPhone之外找到“下一个时代的iPhone”，也是苹果商业帝国得以延续的重中之重。外界最期待的呈现主要包括苹果智能汽车和苹果AR/VR眼镜，前者经历8年的“难产”目前依然距离落地遥遥无期，后者则在近期迎来越来越密集的报道，在万众瞩目中呼之欲出。（图片来源：视觉中国）事实上苹果在AR领域的布局比大多数人想象的都要深远——其于2017年WWDC推出了AR开发平台ARKit，开发人员可以使用这套工具为iPhone和iPad创建增强现实应用程序，而苹果的AR/VR一旦面市，ARKit具备的能力和对应的应用程序，大部分也都可以呈现在新的载体上。比如应用于iPad、iPhone Pro的LiDAR激光雷达，因为具备景深感知能力，所以除了为现有产品提高摄像对焦能力外，更像是在为未来AR/VR设备所必需的空间测距能力打好基础。也比如iPhone目前具备的摄像头识别文字并搜索的功能，如果应用于未来的AR/VR设备，能够施展的空间也会大大得到释放。2022年WWDC之后，库克曾在采访中表述，AR领域是苹果每天关注的重点，App Store中已经有超过1400个ARKit APP，还表示“请继续关注，你将会看到我们所带来的产品”。从已有消息来看，苹果的AR团队大概率手握两套方案，一个是瞄准VR的头盔，对应的是沉浸式的虚拟体验，售价可能达到2000美元；另一个则大概率是外观更贴近普通眼镜的AR眼镜，对应的是现实加强的虚拟体验，但推出的时间点应该会在VR头盔产品之后。在智能手机市场增长不再的背景下，苹果酝酿中的AR/VR眼镜能否接住iPhone即将交出的接力棒，或许就是苹果未来几年的焦虑所在。值得思考的问题是，在苹果的负债率逼近90%的当下，未来可供库克腾挪的空间还剩多少？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962422039,"gmtCreate":1669825906721,"gmtModify":1676538252042,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962422039","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThey \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThey \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960343825,"gmtCreate":1668082789268,"gmtModify":1676538009681,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960343825","repostId":"1117158204","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117158204","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668079921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117158204?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-10 19:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"SMIC's Q3 revenue was $1.907 billion, and its net profit was $470 million.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117158204","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.2","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>The company released its third-quarter 2022 results. The financial report shows that third-quarter revenue was $1.907 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.935 billion and $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was $470 million, compared to market expectations of $493 million and $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, compared to market expectations of $0.06 and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit for the third quarter was $742 million, compared to $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, and a 58.6% increase compared to $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales for the third quarter was $1.165 billion, compared to $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, sales revenue is expected to decline by 13% to 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin between 30% and 32%, due to weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer sectors, coupled with the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new US export control regulations. Based on the median results for the first three quarters and the guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 34%, and its gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan has been raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SMIC's Q3 revenue was $1.907 billion, and its net profit was $470 million.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSMIC's Q3 revenue was $1.907 billion, and its net profit was $470 million.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-10 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>November 10th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">SMIC</a>The company released its third-quarter 2022 results. The financial report shows that third-quarter revenue was $1.907 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.935 billion and $1.415 billion in the same period last year; Net profit was $470 million, compared to market expectations of $493 million and $321 million in the same period last year; Earnings per share were $0.06, compared to market expectations of $0.06 and $0.04 in the same period last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a51299e34136be730166625f07828bc\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"709\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Gross profit for the third quarter was $742 million, compared to $750 million in the second quarter of 2022, and a 58.6% increase compared to $468 million in the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>Cost of sales for the third quarter was $1.165 billion, compared to $1.153 billion in the second quarter of 2022.</p><p>In the fourth quarter, sales revenue is expected to decline by 13% to 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin between 30% and 32%, due to weak demand in the mobile phone and consumer sectors, coupled with the need for some customers to buffer time to interpret the new US export control regulations. Based on the median results for the first three quarters and the guidance for the fourth quarter, the company's full-year revenue is expected to be around $7.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 34%, and its gross profit margin is expected to be around 38%. The full-year capital expenditure plan has been raised from $5 billion to $6.6 billion.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecaf7b843618667282559909e22a1fb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","BK1607":"新IT概念","00981":"中芯国际","BK1526":"科网股","BK1163":"半导体产品","BK0214":"IT设备"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117158204","content_text":"11月10日，中芯国际发布2022年第三季度业绩。财报显示，第三季度营收19.07亿美元，市场预期19.35亿美元，去年同期14.15亿美元；净利润4.7亿美元，市场预期4.93亿美元，去年同期3.21亿美元；每股收益0.06美元，市场预期0.06美元，去年同期0.04美元。第三季毛利为7.42亿美元，相比2022年第二季为7.5亿美元，相较于2021年第三季的4.68亿美元增长58.6%。第三季的销售成本为11.65亿美元，相较于2022年第二季为11.53亿美元。预计第四季度，受手机、消费领域需求疲弱，叠加部分客户需要缓冲时间解读美国出口管制新规而带来的影响，销售收入预计环比下降13%到15%，毛利率在30%到32%之间。根据前三季度业绩和四季度指引中值，公司全年收入预计在73亿美元左右，同比增长约34%，毛利率预计在38%左右。全年资本支出计画从50亿美元上调为66亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"00981":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987314726,"gmtCreate":1667822437965,"gmtModify":1676537969210,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987314726","repostId":"2281443627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281443627","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667793078,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281443627?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! Will US stocks rise 6% during the midterm election season?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281443627","media":"智通财经","summary":"70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. midterm elections, which have been a major positive for the U.S. stock market for over 70 years. However, rising interest rates, the increasing risk of recession, and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. However, historically, the fourth quarter and the year following the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for the stock market in a four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest that Democrats could lose control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, and the stock market could receive a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government would virtually stifle any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: “A divided U.S. government is a good thing. The government can do nothing, and there will be no more uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the competitive environment, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, it will bring some certainty to American businesses.”</p><p>Driven by the US midterm elections, a period of rise in the stock market will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening policy in decades has caused the S&P 500 to fall 21%, dealing a heavy blow to investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even losing control of either house of Congress would weaken Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy during a slowdown, eliminating a potential reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's further rate hike to curb inflation. The U.S. October CPI data will be released on Thursday, giving investors another key piece of data on price increases that will help gauge the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that option pricing suggests the S&P 500 could rise by up to 0.7% if the Republicans win. If Democrats continue to control Congress, the S&P 500 will fall 3.3%. But it is certain that the election results may not be immediately clear, especially if candidates refuse to acknowledge the election results or incite questions about them. The risk of violence or protests after the vote could upset public sentiment.</p><p>Looking at the longer term, the U.S. stock market is at its most bullish in the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is reassuring for bulls. Data from Carson Investment Research shows that historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two quarters that follow have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 index rising by an average of 6.6%, 7.4%, and 4.8% in those quarters since 1950, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this year's outlook is complicated by the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Last week, Powell defied expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"a long way to go\" and that the peak of its key policy rate may be higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: “Medium-term seasonality will not continue this time because the market still hasn’t realized the fact that interest rates need to remain high for a longer period. Some investors are confusing the Fed’s pause in rate hike with a shift in Fed policy. A shift would mean the Fed is completely changing direction. But not at present.” The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate hike in 2023 as they need to see the impact of the measures they have already taken on the economy. But pausing rate hike does not mean that they will definitely lower interest rates after the pause. They might suspend rate hike and then rate hike again, especially given persistently high inflation.</p><p>Learning from history, the Federal Reserve's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a period of strong US stock markets. Data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group shows that the third year of the U.S. presidential election cycle (next year) is the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 rising by an average of 14%. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of an election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks is that the S&P 500 has hardly experienced any decline in the past after the midterm elections. According to an analysis of data since 1950 by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche, on average, the index rose one month, three months, six months, and a full year after the midterm elections. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 index rose by an average of 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Delwiche, the logic is this: the politicians in power want*, so they begin to formulate more lenient policies before the election. But this time, what will happen next is almost uncertain, and discontent with inflation may change the typical political script. Delwiche stated, \"What's different about this cycle is that we haven't seen more stimulus policies so far; on the contrary, the opposite is true. This cycle isn't an expectation of what's about to happen, but a reaction to what's already happened. If the Republicans win the midterm elections, policies could be more market-friendly, which could support the S&P 500.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! Will US stocks rise 6% during the midterm election season?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! Will US stocks rise 6% during the midterm election season?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-07 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The near-term fate of the U.S. stock market depends on the U.S. midterm elections, which have been a major positive for the U.S. stock market for over 70 years. However, rising interest rates, the increasing risk of recession, and the worst inflation in 40 years may cause the current situation to deviate from past historical trends. However, historically, the fourth quarter and the year following the midterm elections have been the strongest periods for the stock market in a four-year presidential cycle.</p><p>Polls suggest that Democrats could lose control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, and the stock market could receive a further boost from another traditionally favorable factor: a divided U.S. government would virtually stifle any major legislation that could change the economic outlook. Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners, said: “A divided U.S. government is a good thing. The government can do nothing, and there will be no more uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the competitive environment, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, it will bring some certainty to American businesses.”</p><p>Driven by the US midterm elections, a period of rise in the stock market will be welcomed by investors. This year, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive monetary tightening policy in decades has caused the S&P 500 to fall 21%, dealing a heavy blow to investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99095f442d3b778b5a1bbc9844dce78e\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even losing control of either house of Congress would weaken Democrats' ability to enact fiscal measures to stimulate the economy during a slowdown, eliminating a potential reason for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's further rate hike to curb inflation. The U.S. October CPI data will be released on Thursday, giving investors another key piece of data on price increases that will help gauge the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace in the coming months.</p><p>Optiver estimates that option pricing suggests the S&P 500 could rise by up to 0.7% if the Republicans win. If Democrats continue to control Congress, the S&P 500 will fall 3.3%. But it is certain that the election results may not be immediately clear, especially if candidates refuse to acknowledge the election results or incite questions about them. The risk of violence or protests after the vote could upset public sentiment.</p><p>Looking at the longer term, the U.S. stock market is at its most bullish in the next 16 quarters of the U.S. presidential cycle, which is reassuring for bulls. Data from Carson Investment Research shows that historically, the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the two quarters that follow have been the strongest, with the S&P 500 index rising by an average of 6.6%, 7.4%, and 4.8% in those quarters since 1950, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3652d4be0b2d8129529b3a6e97693871\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, this year's outlook is complicated by the possibility of rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Last week, Powell defied expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, saying that the Fed's rate hike still has \"a long way to go\" and that the peak of its key policy rate may be higher than expected.</p><p>Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi, said: “Medium-term seasonality will not continue this time because the market still hasn’t realized the fact that interest rates need to remain high for a longer period. Some investors are confusing the Fed’s pause in rate hike with a shift in Fed policy. A shift would mean the Fed is completely changing direction. But not at present.” The chances of avoiding a recession are very low, so the Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate hike in 2023 as they need to see the impact of the measures they have already taken on the economy. But pausing rate hike does not mean that they will definitely lower interest rates after the pause. They might suspend rate hike and then rate hike again, especially given persistently high inflation.</p><p>Learning from history, the Federal Reserve's suspension of rate hike is likely to occur during a period of strong US stock markets. Data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group shows that the third year of the U.S. presidential election cycle (next year) is the strongest since World War II, with the S&P 500 rising by an average of 14%. The S&P 500 rose 57% of the time in the second year of an election cycle and 83% of the time in the third year.</p><p>Another strong precedent for U.S. stocks is that the S&P 500 has hardly experienced any decline in the past after the midterm elections. According to an analysis of data since 1950 by All Star Charts investment strategist Willie Delwiche, on average, the index rose one month, three months, six months, and a full year after the midterm elections. A year after the midterm elections, the S&P 500 index rose by an average of 15%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39b4c9ab14dc0ed528b2b248a156646f\" tg-width=\"617\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to Delwiche, the logic is this: the politicians in power want*, so they begin to formulate more lenient policies before the election. But this time, what will happen next is almost uncertain, and discontent with inflation may change the typical political script. Delwiche stated, \"What's different about this cycle is that we haven't seen more stimulus policies so far; on the contrary, the opposite is true. This cycle isn't an expectation of what's about to happen, but a reaction to what's already happened. If the Republicans win the midterm elections, policies could be more market-friendly, which could support the S&P 500.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/824749.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281443627","content_text":"美国股市的近期命运取决于美国中期选举，而70多年来中期选举一直是美股一大利好。然而目前不断上升的利率、不断加剧的衰退风险以及40年来最严重的通货膨胀，可能会导致目前形势与过去历史趋势的偏离。不过，从历史上看，第四季度和中期选举后的一年一直是四年总统周期中股市表现最强劲的时期。民调显示，民主党可能会失去对美国参众两院的控制权，股市可能会从另一个传统上有利的因素得到进一步提振：一个分裂的美国政府几乎会扼杀任何可能改变经济前景的重大立法。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：“美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。”在美国中期选举的推动下，股市出现一段时间的上涨将受到投资者的欢迎。今年，美联储数十年来最激进的货币紧缩政策已导致标普500指数下跌21%，令投资者遭受重创。即使失去对美国国会任何一个议院的控制，也会削弱民主党在经济放缓时制定财政措施刺激经济的能力，这将消除美联储主席鲍威尔进一步加息以抑制通胀的一个潜在理由。美国10月份CPI数据将于周四公布，届时投资者将获得另一个有关物价上涨的关键数据，这也将有助于窥探美联储未来几个月的加息步伐。Optiver估计，期权定价显示，如果共和党获胜，标普500指数最多将上涨0.7%;如果民主党继续控制了国会，标普500指数将下跌3.3%。但可以肯定的是，选举结果可能不会立即明朗，特别是如果候选人拒绝承认选举结果或煽动对选举结果的质疑。投票后发生暴力或抗议的风险可能会扰乱民众的情绪。从更长时间来看，美国股市正处于美国总统周期接下来16个季度中最看涨的时期，这让看涨股市的人感到欣慰。Carson Investment Research的数据显示，从历史上看，中期选举年的第四季度和之后的两个季度最为强劲，自1950年以来标普500指数在上述季度的平均涨幅分别为6.6%、7.4%和4.8%。然而，今年的前景因美联储可能加息而变得复杂。上周，鲍威尔打破了外界对美联储调整政策的预期，称美联储加息仍有\"一段路要走\"，其关键政策利率的峰值可能高于预期。SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young表示:“中期季节性因素这次不会持续下去，因为市场仍然没有意识到利率需要在更长时间内维持在高位的事实。一些投资者混淆了美联储的暂停加息与美联储政策转向的关系。转向将意味着美联储正在彻底改变方向。但目前不是。避免衰退的机会非常低，所以美联储很可能在2023年暂停加息，因为他们需要看到他们已经采取的措施对经济的影响。但暂停加息并不意味着暂停后，他们肯定会调低利率。他们可能会暂停加息，然后再次加息，尤其是在通胀居高不下的情况下。”以史为鉴，美联储暂停加息很可能将发生在美股的强势时期。Bespoke Investment Group汇编的数据显示，自二战以来，美国总统选举周期的第三年(明年)是最强劲的一年，标普500指数平均上涨了14%。标普500指数在选举周期的第二年里有57%的时间出现上涨，在第三年83%的时间出现上涨。另一个美股强劲的先例是:标普500指数过去几乎没有在中期选举后出现过任何下跌。根据All Star Charts投资策略师Willie Delwiche对1950年以来数据的分析，平均而言，该指数在中期选举后的一个月、三个月、半年和一整年都走高。中期选举一年后，标普500指数平均上涨了15%。在Delwiche看来，逻辑是这样的:当权的政客想要连任，所以他们开始在大选前制定更宽松的政策。但这一次，接下来会发生什么几乎不确定，对通胀的不满可能会改变典型的政治剧本。Delwiche称：“这个周期的不同之处在于，到目前为止我们还没有看到更多的刺激政策，反而情况相反。这个周期不是对即将发生的事情的预期，而是对已经发生的事情的反应。如果共和党在中期选举中获胜，政策可能会更加有利于市场，这可能会支撑标普指数。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984872046,"gmtCreate":1667611156086,"gmtModify":1676537943759,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984872046","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, cash is once again king. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. It's that time of year again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe haven, the largest number since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A Bank of America report citing EPFR global data indicated that $62.1 billion flowed into cash assets in the week ending November 2. Starting from the fourth quarter in early October, a total of $194 billion has flowed into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recent media reports indicate that overseas central banks also appear to be preparing for a battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they have been converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from Federal Reserve custodian accounts into cash and into overnight Fed reverse repurchase facilities.</p><p>In October of this year, even Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who had long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune, saying he no longer believed so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. “I no longer think cash is junk. With current interest rates and the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is now almost neutral—neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term interest rates are now appropriate.”</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion withdrew from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance given persistently high inflation and low unemployment. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy shift. The Federal Reserve needs a recession and credit events to end its tightening policy, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America predicts that the stock market may bottom out next spring due to the \"recession shock\". After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peak, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>Bank of America's bull and bear indicators have remained at the \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh consecutive week, the longest period since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearishness is usually considered a reverse indicator, meaning that extremes will inevitably reverse, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House of Representatives, as the party seeks to maintain its slim control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, cash is once again king. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. It's that time of year again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe haven, the largest number since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A Bank of America report citing EPFR global data indicated that $62.1 billion flowed into cash assets in the week ending November 2. Starting from the fourth quarter in early October, a total of $194 billion has flowed into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recent media reports indicate that overseas central banks also appear to be preparing for a battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they have been converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from Federal Reserve custodian accounts into cash and into overnight Fed reverse repurchase facilities.</p><p>In October of this year, even Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who had long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune, saying he no longer believed so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. “I no longer think cash is junk. With current interest rates and the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is now almost neutral—neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term interest rates are now appropriate.”</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion withdrew from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance given persistently high inflation and low unemployment. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy shift. The Federal Reserve needs a recession and credit events to end its tightening policy, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America predicts that the stock market may bottom out next spring due to the \"recession shock\". After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peak, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>Bank of America's bull and bear indicators have remained at the \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh consecutive week, the longest period since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearishness is usually considered a reverse indicator, meaning that extremes will inevitably reverse, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House of Representatives, as the party seeks to maintain its slim control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"SH":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984876767,"gmtCreate":1667611141460,"gmtModify":1676537943752,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984876767","repostId":"2281682271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281682271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667607675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281682271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 08:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Investors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281682271","media":"市场资讯","summary":"美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, cash is once again king. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. It's that time of year again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe haven, the largest number since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A Bank of America report citing EPFR global data indicated that $62.1 billion flowed into cash assets in the week ending November 2. Starting from the fourth quarter in early October, a total of $194 billion has flowed into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recent media reports indicate that overseas central banks also appear to be preparing for a battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they have been converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from Federal Reserve custodian accounts into cash and into overnight Fed reverse repurchase facilities.</p><p>In October of this year, even Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who had long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune, saying he no longer believed so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. “I no longer think cash is junk. With current interest rates and the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is now almost neutral—neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term interest rates are now appropriate.”</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion withdrew from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance given persistently high inflation and low unemployment. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy shift. The Federal Reserve needs a recession and credit events to end its tightening policy, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America predicts that the stock market may bottom out next spring due to the \"recession shock\". After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peak, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>Bank of America's bull and bear indicators have remained at the \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh consecutive week, the longest period since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearishness is usually considered a reverse indicator, meaning that extremes will inevitably reverse, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House of Representatives, as the party seeks to maintain its slim control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are pouring in cash at the fastest pace since the beginning of the pandemic, and analysts say the Federal Reserve will not shift its focus anytime soon.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">市场资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, cash is once again king. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said after the October non-farm payrolls report that the Federal Reserve will not change its monetary policy stance when inflation remains high and unemployment is low. In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. It's that time of year again when cash is king. As the Federal Reserve remains hawkish, investors are rushing into cash for safe haven, the largest number since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>A Bank of America report citing EPFR global data indicated that $62.1 billion flowed into cash assets in the week ending November 2. Starting from the fourth quarter in early October, a total of $194 billion has flowed into cash, the fastest cash inflow since the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>Recent media reports indicate that overseas central banks also appear to be preparing for a battle for the US dollar. In recent weeks, they have been converting their U.S. Treasury Bond holdings from Federal Reserve custodian accounts into cash and into overnight Fed reverse repurchase facilities.</p><p>In October of this year, even Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio, who had long criticized cash as garbage, changed his tune, saying he no longer believed so and that short-term interest rates were appropriate. “I no longer think cash is junk. With current interest rates and the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet, it (cash) is now almost neutral—neither a very good deal nor a very bad deal. In other words, short-term interest rates are now appropriate.”</p><p>In other asset classes, global equity funds saw inflows of $6.3 billion this week, while nearly $4 billion withdrew from bonds.</p><p>Michael Hartnett, Wall Street's most accurate analyst this year and a strategist at Bank of America, said after the October non-farm payrolls report that Friday's data showed that while the unemployment rate climbed, U.S. businesses reported strong hiring and wage growth in October.</p><p>Hartnett does not expect the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance given persistently high inflation and low unemployment. Unemployment in 2023 could be a catalyst for a policy shift. The Federal Reserve needs a recession and credit events to end its tightening policy, which will drive a new bull market.</p><p>Specifically, Bank of America predicts that the stock market may bottom out next spring due to the \"recession shock\". After inflation, interest rates, and the dollar peak, investors should sell the dollar and buy 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and small-cap stocks.</p><p>Bank of America's bull and bear indicators have remained at the \"extremely bearish\" level for the seventh consecutive week, the longest period since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Extreme bearishness is usually considered a reverse indicator, meaning that extremes will inevitably reverse, and it is a buy signal.</p><p>Hartnett also pointed out that attention should be paid to the impact of next Tuesday's US midterm elections on the market. A Republican victory would mean tighter monetary policy and a further inverted yield curve. A Democratic victory would mean looser fiscal policy and a steeper yield curve. The current situation is that Democrats could lose their majority in the House of Representatives, as the party seeks to maintain its slim control of the Senate.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml\">市场资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-11-05/doc-imqqsmrp4971798.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2281682271","content_text":"由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，现金再度为王。美银策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场；此外要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。现金为王的时候又到了。由于美联储仍然立场鹰派，投资者们匆匆涌入现金避险，为新冠疫情爆发以来之最。美国银行援引EPFR全球数据的一份报告指出，截至11月2日当周，有621亿美元的资金涌入现金类资产。从10月初的四季度开始，累计有1940亿美元的资金涌入现金，这是自2020年二季度以来的最快现金流入。近日媒体称，海外央行们也似乎正在为美元争夺战做准备。最近几周，他们正将持有的美国国债从美联储托管账户中转换成现金，并转入隔夜美联储逆回购工具中。今年10月，就连长期抨击现金是垃圾的桥水基金创始人达利欧也改口，他称不再这样认为，短期利率已合适。“我不再认为现金是垃圾。以现有的利率和美联储缩减资产负债表的情况，它（现金）现在几乎是中性的——既不是非常好的交易，也不是非常糟糕的交易。 换句话说，短期利率现在是合适的。”在其他资产类别方面，全球股票基金本周流入63亿美元资金，而近40亿美元资金从债券中撤出。今年华尔街最准的分析师、美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在10月非农就业报告后表示，周五的数据显示，虽然失业率攀升，但美国企业在10月份报告了强劲的招聘和工资增长。Hartnett预计美联储不会在通胀居高不下且失业率处于低位的情况下，就转变货币政策立场。2023年的失业情况可能会是政策转折的催化剂。美联储结束紧缩政策需要经济衰退和信贷事件，从而推动新的牛市。具体来说，美银预计，由于“衰退冲击”，股市可能会在明年春季触底。在通胀、利率和美元见顶之后，投资者应该卖出美元，并买入30年期美国国债、高收益债券、新兴市场资产和小盘股。美国银行设计的牛熊指标连续第七周保持在“极度看跌”水平，这是自 2008-2009年全球金融危机以来最长的时间。极度看跌通常被视为反向指标，也就是物极必反，是一个买入信号。Hartnett还指出，要关注下周二美国中期选举对市场的影响。共和党人获胜将意味着更为收紧的货币政策和进一步倒挂的收益率曲线。而民主党获胜将意味着更宽松的财政政策和更陡峭的收益率曲线。目前的形势是，民主党可能会失去在众议院的多数席位，该党正在寻求保持对参议院的微弱控制。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"SH":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,".SPX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322205,"gmtCreate":1667541159308,"gmtModify":1676537934788,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322205","repostId":"1116728116","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322802,"gmtCreate":1667541144806,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322802","repostId":"1166983194","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166983194","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667537951,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166983194?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 12:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Both onshore and offshore RMB surged, with the offshore RMB gaining over 800 points intraday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166983194","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一度升破7.25关口。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina quotes, the offshore yuan surged more than 800 points against the US dollar during the day, breaking through the 7.25 mark at one point. According to China Money Network, the onshore yuan surged nearly 600 points against the US dollar during the day, reaching a high of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Both onshore and offshore RMB surged, with the offshore RMB gaining over 800 points intraday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoth onshore and offshore RMB surged, with the offshore RMB gaining over 800 points intraday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 12:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Sina quotes, the offshore yuan surged more than 800 points against the US dollar during the day, breaking through the 7.25 mark at one point. According to China Money Network, the onshore yuan surged nearly 600 points against the US dollar during the day, reaching a high of 7.2422.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cccbce0c5998697ff43e746c3c08fa","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166983194","content_text":"据新浪报价，离岸人民币兑美元日内大涨超800点，一度升破7.25关口。据中国货币网，在岸人民币兑美元日内大涨近600点，最高报7.2422。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322190,"gmtCreate":1667541134511,"gmtModify":1676537934779,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322190","repostId":"1151050074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151050074","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667538169,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151050074?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 10%, with tech stocks continuing to strengthen in the afternoon.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151050074","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped in the afternoon and is now up more than 10%, while the Hang Seng Index is up more than 7%. Tech stocks continued to rise in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>It rose by about 28%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>It rose about 19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>It rose by over 17%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com - SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It rose nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 10%, with tech stocks continuing to strengthen in the afternoon.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 10%, with tech stocks continuing to strengthen in the afternoon.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-04 13:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 4, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped in the afternoon and is now up more than 10%, while the Hang Seng Index is up more than 7%. Tech stocks continued to rise in the afternoon.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Automobile - W</a>It rose by about 28%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">Nio-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">Bilibili-W</a>It rose about 19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W</a>It rose by over 17%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>Up nearly 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD.com - SW</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>It rose nearly 11%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e941a40b03c398ea701ac5904370d955\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151050074","content_text":"11月4日，恒生科技指数午后跳涨，现涨超10%，恒生指数涨超7%；科网股午后继续走强，小鹏汽车-W涨约28%，蔚来-SW、哔哩哔哩-W涨约19%，理想汽车-W涨超17%，阿里巴巴-SW涨近16%，京东集团-SW涨超15%，腾讯控股涨近11%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322943,"gmtCreate":1667541122582,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322943","repostId":"1124495599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984322017,"gmtCreate":1667541100339,"gmtModify":1676537934763,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984322017","repostId":"1100967585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100967585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667540649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100967585?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-04 13:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market has failed, and even higher oil prices can't kill them?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100967585","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts point out that the end result is likely to be slower economic growth and higher energy costs that will persist for a longer period. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, which can be described as an old adage in the commodity industry. This means letting the \"invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately depressing commodity prices.</p><p>This maxim has been repeatedly argued over the centuries, and generations of financiers and investors have believed in it. Every boom in the commodities sector has been followed by a depression: such as after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the most recent shale industry boom in the United States 10 years ago.</p><p>However, Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas wrote that...<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, rising crude oil prices have dampened people's demand. However, the other side of the equation—supply—has not played its due role. The oil industry no longer responds to high oil prices with increased investment as it used to. This means,<b>Oil demand will be the full driving force behind rebalancing the oil market.</b>Its results<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing down, and high energy costs will last longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Expenditure of the oil industry on oil production and exploration (in billion US dollars)</p><p>Why are high oil prices no longer working on the supply side? Money is certainly not an issue. Big oil companies have had their best six months ever this year, with profits exceeding $100 billion between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It has just had its best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's third-quarter net profit reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's revised expectations and almost rivaling that of tech giants.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The profit level.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are demanding that oil companies control spending, as are ExxonMobil and its competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>After the company reported huge profits<b>No significant increase in spending has been announced compared to the original plan.</b>They are committed to converting profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and production as quickly as possible when oil prices were high, hoping to make a fortune before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this made<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: the collective investment of large oil companies is seriously insufficient.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent only $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than the funds needed to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030<b>The global energy sector needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) annually.</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending will still need to increase by 25% from current levels, and this will continue until at least 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that the oil companies' current reaction to high oil prices is understandable, and their reduction in investment in fossil fuel production has received unanimous support from environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment moguls. Of course, the industry quickly realized that cutting spending was actually good business, especially when everyone was doing it. Currently, only a few Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their fossil fuel spending.</p><p>Javier points out that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand peaks and then declines rapidly. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fully reflected this.</p><p>Faced with high oil prices, Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to speed up spending. But after seeing how profitable it can be to ignore the industry's old adage, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and stock prices.</p><p>On Monday, U.S. President Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agreed to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden’s remarks as an olive branch to the fossil fuel industry, marking a 180-degree turn on his campaign promises.</p><p>However, Javier stated that the windfall profits tax may play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is not expected to be significant.<b>Because reducing an industry's profitability by raising taxes does not encourage more spending. He</b>It is believed that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the dialogue, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors that the United States needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"invisible hand\" of the oil market has failed, and even higher oil prices can't kill them?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"invisible hand\" of the oil market has failed, and even higher oil prices can't kill them?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts point out that the end result is likely to be slower economic growth and higher energy costs that will persist for a longer period. The antidote to high oil prices is higher oil prices, which can be described as an old adage in the commodity industry. This means letting the \"invisible hand\" of the free market work its magic. High prices will simultaneously reduce demand and increase supply, ultimately depressing commodity prices.</p><p>This maxim has been repeatedly argued over the centuries, and generations of financiers and investors have believed in it. Every boom in the commodities sector has been followed by a depression: such as after the Klondike gold rush in 1896, during the second oil crisis in 1979, and after the most recent shale industry boom in the United States 10 years ago.</p><p>However, Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas wrote that...<b>This maxim seems to have failed in the oil market.</b></p><p>To be sure, rising crude oil prices have dampened people's demand. However, the other side of the equation—supply—has not played its due role. The oil industry no longer responds to high oil prices with increased investment as it used to. This means,<b>Oil demand will be the full driving force behind rebalancing the oil market.</b>Its results<b>It is likely that economic growth is slowing down, and high energy costs will last longer than in the past.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c73186b064672538069f2900e770d0c\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Expenditure of the oil industry on oil production and exploration (in billion US dollars)</p><p>Why are high oil prices no longer working on the supply side? Money is certainly not an issue. Big oil companies have had their best six months ever this year, with profits exceeding $100 billion between April and September.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>It has just had its best quarter in its 152-year history. The company's third-quarter net profit reached a staggering $19.66 billion, far exceeding Wall Street's revised expectations and almost rivaling that of tech giants.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The profit level.</p><p>However, due to the inclusion<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Shareholders, including institutional investors, are demanding that oil companies control spending, as are ExxonMobil and its competitors.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>Company, Shell, total energy SE and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>After the company reported huge profits<b>No significant increase in spending has been announced compared to the original plan.</b>They are committed to converting profits into Dividend and share buybacks.</p><p>In the past, some oil company executives would try to increase spending and production as quickly as possible when oil prices were high, hoping to make a fortune before oil prices plummeted. Today, the entire oil industry is under pressure from shareholders to remain frugal.</p><p>Javier commented that this made<b>The US oil industry is almost like a cartel (monopoly alliance)</b>The result is a similar situation: the collective investment of large oil companies is seriously insufficient.</p><p>Last year, the oil industry spent only $305 billion on oil exploration and production, far less than the funds needed to meet potential oil demand through 2030.</p><p>According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), from 2022 to 2030<b>The global energy sector needs to increase spending by nearly 50% ($466 billion) annually.</b>To meet global oil demand under current climate change policies. Even if governments implement current climate strategies and other commitments, including some net-zero emissions targets, investment spending will still need to increase by 25% from current levels, and this will continue until at least 2030.</p><p>Javier believes that the oil companies' current reaction to high oil prices is understandable, and their reduction in investment in fossil fuel production has received unanimous support from environmental philanthropists and Wall Street investment moguls. Of course, the industry quickly realized that cutting spending was actually good business, especially when everyone was doing it. Currently, only a few Middle Eastern state-owned oil companies are meaningfully increasing their fossil fuel spending.</p><p>Javier points out that the oil industry has been preparing for a world where oil demand peaks and then declines rapidly. But today's world is not such a world, and it won't even be in the near future. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has fully reflected this.</p><p>Faced with high oil prices, Western governments are trying to force the oil industry to speed up spending. But after seeing how profitable it can be to ignore the industry's old adage, oil executives are even more reluctant to cooperate. They know that more spending means lower profits and stock prices.</p><p>On Monday, U.S. President Biden threatened to impose higher taxes on the industry unless oil companies agreed to increase oil production and refining levels. White House officials described Biden’s remarks as an olive branch to the fossil fuel industry, marking a 180-degree turn on his campaign promises.</p><p>However, Javier stated that the windfall profits tax may play a role in the negotiations, but the effect is not expected to be significant.<b>Because reducing an industry's profitability by raising taxes does not encourage more spending. He</b>It is believed that if Biden wants more oil, he needs to completely reset the dialogue, which means clearly telling environmentalists and Wall Street investors that the United States needs fossil fuels now.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/102314","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100967585","content_text":"分析师指出，最终结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企持续更长时间。高油价的解药就是更高的油价，这可谓大宗商品行业的古老格言。这意味着让自由市场“这只看不见的手”发挥其魔力。高价格将同时减少需求和增加供应，最终压低商品价格。几个世纪以来，这一格言已被反复论证，一代又一代的金融学家和投资者对此深信不疑。大宗商品领域的每一次繁荣之后都紧随着萧条：如1896年克朗代克淘金热之后，1979年第二次石油危机期间，以及10年前美国最近一次页岩业繁荣之后。但彭博社能源和商品专栏作家哈维尔·布拉斯（Javier Blas） 撰文指出，这一格言似乎在石油市场失效了。可以肯定的是，原油价格上涨抑制了人们的需求。但等式的另一边——供给却没有发挥应有的作用。石油行业不再像以前那样用增加投资来回应高油价。这意味着，石油需求将成为重新平衡石油市场的全部动力。其结果很可能是经济增长放缓，能源成本高企的持续时间比过去更长。石油行业在石油生产和勘探方面的支出（单位为10亿美元）为什么高油价对供给方面不起作用了？钱当然不是问题。大型石油公司今年经历了有史以来最好的六个月，4月到9月期间利润超过1000亿美元。埃克森美孚刚刚迎来其152年历史上表现最好的一个季度。该公司第三季度净利润达到惊人的196.6亿美元，远超华尔街已经上调之后的预期水平，且几乎比肩科技巨头苹果的利润水平。然而，由于包括贝莱德等机构投资者在内的股东要求石油公司控制支出，埃克森美孚及其竞争对手雪佛龙公司、壳牌公司、total energy SE和英国石油公司在报告巨额利润后仍没有宣布在原计划的基础上大幅增加支出，它们致力于将利润转化为股息和股票回购。过去，一些石油公司高管会试图在油价高企时尽快增加支出，增加产量，以争取在油价暴跌之前大赚一笔。如今，整个石油行业都面临股东要求保持节俭的压力。Javier评论道，这使美国石油行业几乎像一个卡特尔（垄断联盟），结果形成了类似的局面：即大型石油公司集体投资严重不足。去年，石油行业在石油勘探和生产上仅花费3050亿美元，远远低于满足截至2030年潜在石油需求所需的资金。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，从2022年到2030年，全球能源行业每年需要增加近50%（4660亿美元）的支出，以满足当前气候变化政策下的全球石油需求。即使各国政府实施了目前的气候战略和其他承诺，包括一些净零排放目标，投资支出仍需要在目前水平的基础上增长25%，且至少持续到2030年。Javier认为，石油公司现在对高油价的反应无可厚非，它们减少在化石燃料生产上的投入得到了环保慈善家和华尔街投资大佬的一致支持。当然，这个行业很快就意识到，减少支出反而是一笔好生意，尤其是在大家都这样做的情况下。目前，只有少数中东国有石油公司在有意义地增加化石燃料支出。Javier指出，石油行业一直在为一个石油需求见顶并迅速下降的世界做准备。但今天的世界不是这样的世界，甚至不久的将来也不会是。俄乌冲突已经充分反映了这一点。面对高油价，西方政府正试图迫使石油行业加快支出。但在目睹了无视这一行业的古老格言能带来多大利润后，石油业高管们更加不愿意合作。他们知道更多的支出意味着更低的利润和股价。本周一，美国总统拜登威胁称，除非石油公司同意提高石油产量和炼油水平，否则将对该行业征收更高的税。白宫官员把拜登的发言描述为向化石燃料行业抛出的橄榄枝，这意味着拜登在竞选时做出的承诺发生了180度转变。然而，Javier表示，暴利税可能会在谈判中发挥作用，但效果预计不大，因为通过提高税收降低一个行业的盈利能力并不能鼓励更多的支出。他认为，如果拜登想要更多的石油，他需要彻底重置对话，这意味着明确地告诉环保人士和华尔街投资者——美国现在就需要化石燃料。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984326429,"gmtCreate":1667541083861,"gmtModify":1676537934754,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984326429","repostId":"1142363855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984085225,"gmtCreate":1667489502668,"gmtModify":1676537926954,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","listText":"[疑问]&nbsp;","text":"[疑问]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984085225","repostId":"1116744518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116744518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667488509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116744518?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-03 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Saudi Arabia and Foxconn will partner with BMW Technology to create the Ceer electric vehicle brand.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116744518","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to create the Ceer electric vehicle brand. Saudi Ceer will attract $150 million in FDI and create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Saudi Arabia and Foxconn will partner with BMW Technology to create the Ceer electric vehicle brand.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSaudi Arabia and Foxconn will partner with BMW Technology to create the Ceer electric vehicle brand.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-03 23:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Foxconn will join forces with BMW Technologies to create the Ceer electric vehicle brand. Saudi Ceer will attract $150 million in FDI and create up to 30,000 jobs.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef438c9fe438fca6fc47880dd89ad2e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116744518","content_text":"沙特阿拉伯公共投资基金（PIF）和富士康将联合宝马科技打造Ceer电动汽车品牌。沙特Ceer将吸引1.5亿美元FDI，将创造多达3万个就业岗位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":329174626,"gmtCreate":1615217599565,"gmtModify":1704779766761,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","listText":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","text":"all are the common sense, but hard to stick to them","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/329174626","repostId":"1132314005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132314005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615211001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132314005?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-08 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to handle market declines","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132314005","media":"Capital Group","summary":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demo","content":"<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.</p>\n<p>Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.</p>\n<p>But smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.</p>\n<p><b>1. Market declines are part of investing</b></p>\n<p>Stocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de01aaa90e8493bebe0ce8650722d2a9\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"359\"></p>\n<p>The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.</p>\n<p><b>2. Time in the market matters, not market timing</b></p>\n<p>No one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.</p>\n<p>Every S&amp;P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.</p>\n<p>Even missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f6b5b3ae6b57cc31f1af5aebbc17fa2\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"517\"></p>\n<p><b>3. Emotional investing can be hazardous</b></p>\n<p>Kahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.</p>\n<p>Emotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce214d221fe60c0d520aa334e3d7be7\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"448\"></p>\n<p>One way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of&nbsp;behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.</p>\n<p><b>4. Make a plan and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>Creating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.</p>\n<p>One way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40068e959546f5e54c0a77a783a038b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"501\"></p>\n<p>Retirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.</p>\n<p><b>5. Diversification matters</b></p>\n<p>A diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.</p>\n<p>For investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6b891f36b43c3ca3b7f9285cf8d0ca4\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"645\"></p>\n<p><b>6. Fixed income can help bring balance</b></p>\n<p>Stocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890a63f81150f3bfa535786be314ddea\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"537\"></p>\n<p>What’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.</p>\n<p>Though bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.</p>\n<p><b>7. The market tends to reward long-term investors</b></p>\n<p>Is it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.</p>\n<p>It’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&amp;P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a43c92755d55227a882d674690c39c3\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>It’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.</p>","source":"lsy1615210994562","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to handle market declines</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to handle market declines\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-08 21:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html><strong>Capital Group</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/handle-market-declines.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132314005","content_text":"You wouldn’t be human if you didn’t fear loss.\nNobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman demonstrated this with his loss aversion theory, showing that people feel the pain of losing money more than they enjoy gains. The natural instinct is to flee the market when it starts to plummet, just as greed prompts people to jump back in when stocks are skyrocketing. Both can have negative impacts.\nBut smart investing can overcome the power of emotion by focusing on relevant research, solid data and proven strategies. Here are seven principles that can help fight the urge to make emotional decisions in times of market turmoil.\n1. Market declines are part of investing\nStocks have risen steadily for most of the last decade, but history tells us that stock market declines are an inevitable part of investing. The good news is that corrections (defined as a 10% or more decline), bear markets (an extended 20% or more decline) and other challenging patches haven’t lasted forever.\n\nThe Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index has typically dipped at least 10% about once a year, and 20% or more about every six years, according to data from 1950 to 2019. While past results are not predictive of future results, each downturn has been followed by a recovery and a new market high.\n2. Time in the market matters, not market timing\nNo one can accurately predict short-term market moves, and investors who sit on the sidelines risk losing out on periods of meaningful price appreciation that follow downturns.\nEvery S&P 500 decline of 15% or more, from 1929 through 2019, has been followed by a recovery. The average return in the first year after each of these declines was 54%.\nEven missing out on just a few trading days can take a toll. A hypothetical investment of $1,000 in the S&P 500 made in 2010 would have grown to more than $2,800 by the end of 2019. But if an investor missed just the 10 best trading days during that period, he or she would have ended up with 33% less.\n\n3. Emotional investing can be hazardous\nKahneman won his Nobel Prize in 2002 for his work in behavioral economics, a field that investigates how individuals make financial decisions. A key finding of behavioral economists is that people often act irrationally when making such choices.\nEmotional reactions to market events are perfectly normal. Investors should expect to feel nervous when markets decline, but it’s the actions taken during such periods that can mean the difference between investment success and shortfall.\n\nOne way to encourage rational investment decision-making is to understand the fundamentals of behavioral economics. Recognizing behaviors like anchoring, confirmation bias and availability bias may help investors identify potential mistakes before they make them.\n4. Make a plan and stick to it\nCreating and adhering to a thoughtfully constructed investment plan is another way to avoid making short-sighted investment decisions — particularly when markets move lower. The plan should take into account a number of factors, including risk tolerance and short- and long-term goals.\nOne way to avoid futile attempts to time the market is with dollar cost averaging, where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of market ups and downs. This approach creates a strategy in which more shares are purchased at lower prices and fewer shares are purchased at higher prices. Over time investors pay less, on average, per share. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining.\n\nRetirement plans, to which investors make automatic contributions with every paycheck, are a prime example of dollar cost averaging.\n5. Diversification matters\nA diversified portfolio doesn’t guarantee profits or provide assurances that investments won’t decrease in value, but it does help lower risk. By spreading investments across a variety of asset classes, investors can buffer the effects of volatility on their portfolios. Overall returns won’t reach the highest highs of any single investment — but they won’t hit the lowest lows either.\nFor investors who want to avoid some of the stress of downturns, diversification can help lower volatility.\n\n6. Fixed income can help bring balance\nStocks are important building blocks of a diversified portfolio, but bonds can provide an essential counterbalance. That’s because bonds typically have low correlation to the stock market, meaning that they have tended to zig when the stock market zagged.\n\nWhat’s more, bonds with a low equity correlation can potentially help soften the impact of stock market losses on your overall portfolio. Funds providing this diversification can help create durable portfolios, and investors should seek bond funds with strong track records of positive returns through a variety of markets.\nThough bonds may not be able to match the growth potential of stocks, they have often shown resilience in past equity declines. For example, U.S. core bonds were flat or positive in five of the last six corrections.\n7. The market tends to reward long-term investors\nIs it reasonable to expect 30% returns every year? Of course not. And if stocks have moved lower in recent weeks, you shouldn’t expect that to be the start of a long-term trend, either. Behavioral economics tells us recent events carry an outsized influence on our perceptions and decisions.\nIt’s always important to maintain a long-term perspective, but especially when markets are declining. Although stocks rise and fall in the short term, they’ve tended to reward investors over longer periods of time. Even including downturns, the S&P 500’s average annual return over all 10-year periods from 1937 to 2019 was 10.47%.\n\nIt’s natural for emotions to bubble up during periods of volatility. Those investors who can tune out the news and focus on their long-term goals are better positioned to plot out a wise investment strategy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912654381,"gmtCreate":1664836871743,"gmtModify":1676537514358,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912654381","repostId":"2272077126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912351638,"gmtCreate":1664760372325,"gmtModify":1676537503485,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912351638","repostId":"1151044809","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151044809","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"博闻雅识，非凡之客。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市界","id":"1019100707","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3"},"pubTimestamp":1664757138,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151044809?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Robots, the new bet of America's richest man","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151044809","media":"市界","summary":"马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>By Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released its driver assistance features, the best biography about its leader, Elon Musk, \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley,\" was also published.</p><p>This biography, written over three years, reveals a multi-faceted technology star. However, the first 18 months of writing were extremely difficult for author Ashley Vance, because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with interviews.</p><p>The turning point came with a dinner invitation from Musk, after which Musk opened up his world to Vance. One topic Musk mentioned during the dinner was related to Tesla's current moves:</p><p>Musk's good friend, Google founder Larry Page, was building an army of artificial intelligence robots and believed that robots would always serve humans. At the time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create something evil.</p><p>Musk was once wary of robots, but now, the robots he is leading are becoming a reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new business</b></p><p>In the Forbes billionaires list released on September 27, Musk topped the list of America's richest people with a net worth of $251 billion, far surpassing Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who was in second place. However, for individuals, massive wealth has, to some extent, become just a number. What matters is what you accomplish with your wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new business landscape.</p><p>On October 1st, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the highly anticipated Optimus humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus's name comes from the movie \"Transformers\". According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift items weighing up to 20 kilograms.</p><p>The story originated in August 2021. At the time, Tesla held its first Artificial Intelligence Day, with autonomous driving being the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that made its final appearance piqued the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At the time, Musk only presented a concept and then had his staff dress up as robots for a demonstration. Even so, applause was not absent. After all, Musk has succeeded many times in turning seemingly impossible things into reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has truly moved from concept to reality.</p><p>The first prototype, which debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1, was called \"Bumble C\" by Musk. Compared to previous concepts, this prototype looked quite rudimentary, with colorful cables and components exposed, and its movements were very slow.</p><p>However, on stage, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. In the short video on display, it can also be seen learning to move items and pick up a watering can to water flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live stream, October 1st, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the Optimus prototype, which is closer to production, took the stage. This robot has made significant progress in appearance; the cables are all packaged, making it look much cooler. However, it cannot walk on its own; instead, it was carried onto the stage by several staff members.</p><p>From electric vehicles to robots, Tesla seems to be neglecting its core business. But in reality, it is precisely because of its experience in intelligent electric vehicles that Tesla's robots have received more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla showcases its humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lies an underlying logic behind Tesla's foray into the robotics industry. As cars become increasingly intelligent, the arrival of \"car robots\" is no longer far away. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots simply lack wheels.</p><p>In the field of automotive intelligence, Tesla has accumulated profound technological expertise, with its autonomous driving technology ranking at the forefront. If these intelligent technologies can be transferred to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the potential to rise rapidly.</p><p>Meanwhile, Tesla's electric vehicle supply chain system is also a unique advantage. CITIC Securities pointed out that Tesla's electric vehicles share three common characteristics: electricity, mobility, and intelligence. This means that the two products can share many supply chains, including power batteries, thermal management systems, structural components, sensors, motors, electronic controls, and reducers.</p><p>During the Q&A session at the event, Musk stated that his experience in producing electric vehicles can help in the construction of robots.</p><p>According to their positioning, Tesla's humanoid robots were initially intended to replace people in doing repetitive, boring, and dangerous tasks, and their first job would likely be moving objects around the Tesla factory. In the long run, we need to go into every household to complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns, and caring for the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's vision for Optimus is that it is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many tasks.</p><p>Musk stated that humanoid robots are Tesla's most important product development this year, and predicted that over time, the importance of this business may surpass that of electric vehicles.</p><p>However, the development of humanoid robots has proven that the more powerful the robot, the less likely it is to become widespread.</p><p><b>The long evolution of humanoid robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, humans began to imagine robots. In Czech and American science fiction and animation, robots are omnipotent beings.</p><p>Research on humanoid robots began in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earliest countries to carry out related research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of doll-like robots\". In 1967, the Kato Laboratory, founded by Ichiro Kato, launched the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-size humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a large creature, about 2 meters tall and weighing 160 kilograms, with two arms and two legs, just like humans. It has two cameras on its chest and tactile sensors on its hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on two feet, grasp and move objects with its hands, measure distances to objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and can communicate verbally with humans.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that the humanoid robot has a relatively complete prototype. Based on it, researchers have begun to explore the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction capabilities of humanoid robots, and develop some basic capabilities in depth.</p><p>For example, early robots could walk on two legs like humans, but they were very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is more human-like and it can move at a speed of 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and intelligent than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people and carry everyday items. Later, it continued to evolve and learned to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots that have emerged in recent years, dancing skills are nothing new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou branch venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Gala, 540 robots from the domestic startup UBTECH danced with singer Sun Nan. During the 2018 Spring Festival Gala, UBTECH's STEM robots danced again at the guest roundtable. At the 2019 Spring Festival Gala, six UBTECH robots made a collective appearance, once again showcasing their Popping (vibration dance).</p><p>But the most impressive performance was the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They represent the pinnacle of current humanoid robot development.</p><p>If ASIMO and UBTECH robots perform like beginners, then Atlas is a master dancer, whose movements are far more natural and fluid than the former.</p><p>Moreover, Atlas also learned \"parkour\". It can quickly rush up stairs, run across \"single-plank bridges,\" jump between separated boxes, and even do backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots perform backflips simultaneously. Source: Screenshot from Boston Dynamics website)</p><p>This development, which surpasses ordinary people's understanding, has earned Atlas a great reputation. In comparison, Tesla's robots are far from impressive.</p><p>However, the problem is that despite possessing the industry's highest-level Atlas, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In its past development, Boston Dynamics has changed hands three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, by SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control returned to Hyundai Motor Company of South Korea.</p><p>With the transfer of control, Boston Dynamics' valuation also declined significantly. When Google bought it, it was valued at $3 billion. When Hyundai took over, the valuation was only $1.1 billion.</p><p>Boston Dynamics' experience reflects a key dilemma limiting the development of humanoid robots: even though these robots are technologically advanced and powerful, the high research and development costs make them difficult to commercialize, let alone reach the masses.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously acquired by Google, which was also related to disagreements over commercialization. Google wants to understand Boston Dynamics' technologies and how they can be translated into consumer products. Boston Dynamics, however, hopes to develop more independently and is unwilling to consider commercialization too much.</p><p>In contrast, Musk has clearly considered the question of how humanoid robots can become widespread. During the event, he claimed that Tesla's design differs from other \"impressive humanoid robots\" in that Optimus is built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Mass production can reduce costs, and only when the price is low enough can humanoid robots become widespread.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of the Optimus robot is approximately $30,000, far lower than the approximately $2 million cost of the Atlas, and lower than the $36,000 per vehicle cost of Tesla electric vehicles.</p><p>Musk has now stated that the cost of Optimus will drop below $20,000 after mass production.</p><p>If the plan goes smoothly, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry into the market. Even with the significant price reduction, the Optimus's appeal to ordinary consumers remains questionable.</p><p>A partner at an investment firm that holds Tesla stock previously stated that investors were not excited about Optimus and believed it was unlikely that such products would have a wider impact.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus finds difficult to escape is that non-humanoid robots can do the same for certain specific tasks, such as moving items and watering flowers for its demonstration, and the latter can be done at a lower cost.</p><p>In addition, a robotics expert mentioned ahead of Tesla's AI Day that one should not place too much faith in Musk.</p><p><b>The Age of Exploration Robots</b></p><p>If we set aside appearances and focus on practical applications, then robots whose capabilities are not impressive enough, but which focus on serving humans in certain scenarios, are more noteworthy.</p><p>From this perspective, robots are already ubiquitous in human society, but the vast majority of them do not appear in human form.</p><p>In the smart restaurant at the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-drip coffee, and mix cocktails. In typical shopping malls, robots can greet customers and guide shoppers. Hospital robots can perform surgeries, while hotel robots can clean and disinfect.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate the changes that will happen in the next two years and underestimate the changes that will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>In terms of the development of the entire robotics industry, changes are happening rapidly.</p><p>According to a report by Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US$20 billion by 2023. According to data from the Chinese Institute of Electronics, the compound annual growth rate of global service robot sales was 24% from 2016 to 2021, and the global market size is expected to reach US$15.99 billion in 2022.</p><p>With an aging population and a shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to increase significantly. Japan's vigorous development of the robotics industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Let's return to Musk's exploration. The development of humanoid robots has long been proven to be a laborious and thankless task. From the announcement of this plan in 2021 to the progress of the project showcased at this Artificial Intelligence Day, whether Tesla's humanoid robots can be widely adopted has been questioned.</p><p>Judging from the current performance of Tesla's robots, they are not particularly outstanding. The skills they possessed were already capable of being performed by robots.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is indeed tempting. One can imagine what it would be like if robots possessed flexible joints and motor abilities like humans and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\" summarizes Musk's past, describing him as having experienced a \"life of adventure.\" Now, humanoid robots have become a new adventure.</p><p>The outcome may not be smooth, but the adventure itself is meaningful.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robots, the new bet of America's richest man</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobots, the new bet of America's richest man\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1019100707\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7aa5576660d42f195013ced4567a7f3);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市界 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-03 08:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>By Li Nan</p><p>In 2015, when Tesla officially released its driver assistance features, the best biography about its leader, Elon Musk, \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley,\" was also published.</p><p>This biography, written over three years, reveals a multi-faceted technology star. However, the first 18 months of writing were extremely difficult for author Ashley Vance, because Musk himself was unwilling to cooperate with interviews.</p><p>The turning point came with a dinner invitation from Musk, after which Musk opened up his world to Vance. One topic Musk mentioned during the dinner was related to Tesla's current moves:</p><p>Musk's good friend, Google founder Larry Page, was building an army of artificial intelligence robots and believed that robots would always serve humans. At the time, Musk was worried that Page might accidentally create something evil.</p><p>Musk was once wary of robots, but now, the robots he is leading are becoming a reality.</p><p><b>Musk's new business</b></p><p>In the Forbes billionaires list released on September 27, Musk topped the list of America's richest people with a net worth of $251 billion, far surpassing Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, who was in second place. However, for individuals, massive wealth has, to some extent, become just a number. What matters is what you accomplish with your wealth.</p><p>Musk has opened up a new business landscape.</p><p>On October 1st, Beijing time, at Tesla's \"2022 AI Day\", the highly anticipated Optimus humanoid robot prototype was finally unveiled.</p><p>Optimus's name comes from the movie \"Transformers\". According to the previously set parameters, it is about 1.72 meters tall, weighs about 57 kilograms, walks at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour, and can lift items weighing up to 20 kilograms.</p><p>The story originated in August 2021. At the time, Tesla held its first Artificial Intelligence Day, with autonomous driving being the focus of the event, and the humanoid robot that made its final appearance piqued the curiosity of the general public.</p><p>At the time, Musk only presented a concept and then had his staff dress up as robots for a demonstration. Even so, applause was not absent. After all, Musk has succeeded many times in turning seemingly impossible things into reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e1037964842d70ff6804bca9d866375\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Now, Musk's \"new favorite\" has truly moved from concept to reality.</p><p>The first prototype, which debuted at Artificial Intelligence Day on October 1, was called \"Bumble C\" by Musk. Compared to previous concepts, this prototype looked quite rudimentary, with colorful cables and components exposed, and its movements were very slow.</p><p>However, on stage, it completed a steady walk and waved to people. In the short video on display, it can also be seen learning to move items and pick up a watering can to water flowers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268dc163ee847e31e1bc2852dad61860\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla humanoid robot prototype Bumble C. Source: Tesla live stream, October 1st, Beijing time)</p><p>After that, the Optimus prototype, which is closer to production, took the stage. This robot has made significant progress in appearance; the cables are all packaged, making it look much cooler. However, it cannot walk on its own; instead, it was carried onto the stage by several staff members.</p><p>From electric vehicles to robots, Tesla seems to be neglecting its core business. But in reality, it is precisely because of its experience in intelligent electric vehicles that Tesla's robots have received more attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1418e07d4aafcee7c6e90f320f8a493b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Tesla showcases its humanoid robot prototype Optimus. Source: Tesla Live)</p><p>Here lies an underlying logic behind Tesla's foray into the robotics industry. As cars become increasingly intelligent, the arrival of \"car robots\" is no longer far away. In Musk's eyes, Tesla electric vehicles are robots with wheels, while humanoid robots simply lack wheels.</p><p>In the field of automotive intelligence, Tesla has accumulated profound technological expertise, with its autonomous driving technology ranking at the forefront. If these intelligent technologies can be transferred to robots, then Tesla's humanoid robots have the potential to rise rapidly.</p><p>Meanwhile, Tesla's electric vehicle supply chain system is also a unique advantage. CITIC Securities pointed out that Tesla's electric vehicles share three common characteristics: electricity, mobility, and intelligence. This means that the two products can share many supply chains, including power batteries, thermal management systems, structural components, sensors, motors, electronic controls, and reducers.</p><p>During the Q&A session at the event, Musk stated that his experience in producing electric vehicles can help in the construction of robots.</p><p>According to their positioning, Tesla's humanoid robots were initially intended to replace people in doing repetitive, boring, and dangerous tasks, and their first job would likely be moving objects around the Tesla factory. In the long run, we need to go into every household to complete tasks such as cooking, mowing lawns, and caring for the elderly.</p><p>In summary, Musk's vision for Optimus is that it is a general-purpose robot that can free people from many tasks.</p><p>Musk stated that humanoid robots are Tesla's most important product development this year, and predicted that over time, the importance of this business may surpass that of electric vehicles.</p><p>However, the development of humanoid robots has proven that the more powerful the robot, the less likely it is to become widespread.</p><p><b>The long evolution of humanoid robots</b></p><p>About a hundred years ago, humans began to imagine robots. In Czech and American science fiction and animation, robots are omnipotent beings.</p><p>Research on humanoid robots began in the late 1960s. Japan is one of the earliest countries to carry out related research.</p><p>Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, is regarded as the \"father of doll-like robots\". In 1967, the Kato Laboratory, founded by Ichiro Kato, launched the WABOT project. Five years later, the world's first full-size humanoid \"intelligent\" robot, WABOT-1, was born.</p><p>This is a large creature, about 2 meters tall and weighing 160 kilograms, with two arms and two legs, just like humans. It has two cameras on its chest and tactile sensors on its hands.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a93d5e1fcace31e2047d164e69adbf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"874\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(WABOT-1. Source: Waseda University)</p><p>It can walk on two feet, grasp and move objects with its hands, measure distances to objects through visual and acoustic sensors, and can communicate verbally with humans.</p><p>The emergence of WABOT-1 means that the humanoid robot has a relatively complete prototype. Based on it, researchers have begun to explore the direction of intelligence, study the autonomous control and interaction capabilities of humanoid robots, and develop some basic capabilities in depth.</p><p>For example, early robots could walk on two legs like humans, but they were very slow. Later robots learned to run.</p><p>One of the representative products is ASIMO. This is a robot born in 2000, developed by Toyota. Its appearance is more human-like and it can move at a speed of 6 kilometers per hour.</p><p>At the same time, ASIMO is more flexible and intelligent than previous robots. It can walk hand in hand with people and carry everyday items. Later, it continued to evolve and learned to jump and dance on one leg.</p><p>For humanoid robots that have emerged in recent years, dancing skills are nothing new.</p><p>At the Guangzhou branch venue of the 2016 Spring Festival Gala, 540 robots from the domestic startup UBTECH danced with singer Sun Nan. During the 2018 Spring Festival Gala, UBTECH's STEM robots danced again at the guest roundtable. At the 2019 Spring Festival Gala, six UBTECH robots made a collective appearance, once again showcasing their Popping (vibration dance).</p><p>But the most impressive performance was the Atlas launched by Boston Dynamics. They represent the pinnacle of current humanoid robot development.</p><p>If ASIMO and UBTECH robots perform like beginners, then Atlas is a master dancer, whose movements are far more natural and fluid than the former.</p><p>Moreover, Atlas also learned \"parkour\". It can quickly rush up stairs, run across \"single-plank bridges,\" jump between separated boxes, and even do backflips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b301a42107cb1416485cb02ded75fe\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Two Atlas robots perform backflips simultaneously. Source: Screenshot from Boston Dynamics website)</p><p>This development, which surpasses ordinary people's understanding, has earned Atlas a great reputation. In comparison, Tesla's robots are far from impressive.</p><p>However, the problem is that despite possessing the industry's highest-level Atlas, Boston Dynamics is not favored by the capital market. In its past development, Boston Dynamics has changed hands three times: it was acquired by Google in 2014, by SoftBank in 2017, and in 2020, its control returned to Hyundai Motor Company of South Korea.</p><p>With the transfer of control, Boston Dynamics' valuation also declined significantly. When Google bought it, it was valued at $3 billion. When Hyundai took over, the valuation was only $1.1 billion.</p><p>Boston Dynamics' experience reflects a key dilemma limiting the development of humanoid robots: even though these robots are technologically advanced and powerful, the high research and development costs make them difficult to commercialize, let alone reach the masses.</p><p>In fact, Boston Dynamics was previously acquired by Google, which was also related to disagreements over commercialization. Google wants to understand Boston Dynamics' technologies and how they can be translated into consumer products. Boston Dynamics, however, hopes to develop more independently and is unwilling to consider commercialization too much.</p><p>In contrast, Musk has clearly considered the question of how humanoid robots can become widespread. During the event, he claimed that Tesla's design differs from other \"impressive humanoid robots\" in that Optimus is built for mass production of \"millions\" of units.</p><p>Mass production can reduce costs, and only when the price is low enough can humanoid robots become widespread.</p><p>According to an earlier report by Zheshang Securities, the cost of the Optimus robot is approximately $30,000, far lower than the approximately $2 million cost of the Atlas, and lower than the $36,000 per vehicle cost of Tesla electric vehicles.</p><p>Musk has now stated that the cost of Optimus will drop below $20,000 after mass production.</p><p>If the plan goes smoothly, the humanoid robot industry may accelerate with Tesla's entry into the market. Even with the significant price reduction, the Optimus's appeal to ordinary consumers remains questionable.</p><p>A partner at an investment firm that holds Tesla stock previously stated that investors were not excited about Optimus and believed it was unlikely that such products would have a wider impact.</p><p>A fundamental problem that Optimus finds difficult to escape is that non-humanoid robots can do the same for certain specific tasks, such as moving items and watering flowers for its demonstration, and the latter can be done at a lower cost.</p><p>In addition, a robotics expert mentioned ahead of Tesla's AI Day that one should not place too much faith in Musk.</p><p><b>The Age of Exploration Robots</b></p><p>If we set aside appearances and focus on practical applications, then robots whose capabilities are not impressive enough, but which focus on serving humans in certain scenarios, are more noteworthy.</p><p>From this perspective, robots are already ubiquitous in human society, but the vast majority of them do not appear in human form.</p><p>In the smart restaurant at the Beijing Winter Olympics, robots can cook Chinese and Western food, make hand-drip coffee, and mix cocktails. In typical shopping malls, robots can greet customers and guide shoppers. Hospital robots can perform surgeries, while hotel robots can clean and disinfect.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd75fd7b140d0250e0225a72983c14a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>(Beijing Winter Olympics Smart Restaurant)</p><p>Bill Gates once said: We always overestimate the changes that will happen in the next two years and underestimate the changes that will happen in the next 10 years.</p><p>In terms of the development of the entire robotics industry, changes are happening rapidly.</p><p>According to a report by Zheshang Securities, the global service robot market is growing steadily and is expected to exceed US$20 billion by 2023. According to data from the Chinese Institute of Electronics, the compound annual growth rate of global service robot sales was 24% from 2016 to 2021, and the global market size is expected to reach US$15.99 billion in 2022.</p><p>With an aging population and a shortage of labor resources, human demand for robots is destined to increase significantly. Japan's vigorous development of the robotics industry is related to this.</p><p>It can be said that an era profoundly changed by robots has begun. Humans need robots.</p><p>Let's return to Musk's exploration. The development of humanoid robots has long been proven to be a laborious and thankless task. From the announcement of this plan in 2021 to the progress of the project showcased at this Artificial Intelligence Day, whether Tesla's humanoid robots can be widely adopted has been questioned.</p><p>Judging from the current performance of Tesla's robots, they are not particularly outstanding. The skills they possessed were already capable of being performed by robots.</p><p>But the prospect of humanoid robots is indeed tempting. One can imagine what it would be like if robots possessed flexible joints and motor abilities like humans and appeared in people's lives on a large scale.</p><p>The biography \"Iron Man of Silicon Valley\" summarizes Musk's past, describing him as having experienced a \"life of adventure.\" Now, humanoid robots have become a new adventure.</p><p>The outcome may not be smooth, but the adventure itself is meaningful.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d5fe89154533692581a94460e63d11","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151044809","content_text":"文/李楠特斯拉正式发布辅助驾驶功能的2015年，关于其掌舵者马斯克的最好一本传记《硅谷钢铁侠》也诞生了。这本传记写了三年，揭示了一个立体多面的科技明星。然而写作的前18个月让作者阿什利·万斯倍感艰辛，因为马斯克本人不愿配合采访。转机发生于马斯克发出的一次晚宴邀请，之后马斯克向万斯开放了自己的世界。晚宴中马斯克提到的一个话题，正与眼下特斯拉的新动作有关：马斯克的好朋友、谷歌创始人拉里·佩奇，正在建造人工智能机器人大军，并认为机器人会永远服务于人类，彼时的马斯克则忧虑，佩奇可能会不小心制造出邪恶的东西。马斯克曾对机器人充满警惕，而现在，他自己主导的机器人正走进现实。马斯克的新事业在9月27日发布的福布斯富豪榜上，马斯克以2510亿美元的身家登顶美国富豪榜首，远远甩开身居第二名的亚马逊创始人贝索斯。但天量财富对个人而言，某种程度上已经成了单纯的数字。重要的是，用财富做成什么样的事情。马斯克开辟了事业新版图。北京时间10月1日，在特斯拉的“2022 AI Day”上，备受关注的Optimus（擎天柱）人形机器人原型机终于亮相。Optimus的名字来源于电影《变形金刚》。根据之前设定的参数，其身高约1米72，体重约57公斤，行走速度每小时8公里，最多可以提起20公斤重的物品。故事起源于2021年8月。当时特斯拉举办了第一届人工智能日，自动驾驶是活动重点，最后出场的人形机器人则激发了普罗大众的好奇心。当时马斯克仅仅拿出了一个概念，再让工作人员打扮成机器人的样子做了一番展示。即便如此，掌声没有缺席。毕竟把看似不可能的事情变成现实，马斯克已经成功多次。而现在，马斯克的\"新宠\"从概念真正走入现实。在10月1日的人工智能日上登场的第一台原型机，马斯克称之为\"Bumble C（大黄蜂 C）\"。相比之前的概念，这台原型机看起来相当简陋，彩色的线缆和元器件裸露在外，动作也非常迟缓。不过在舞台上，它完成了稳定的行走，并向人们挥手致意。而在展示的短视频中，可以看到它还学会了搬运物品，抓起水壶给花浇水。（特拉人形机器人原型机Bumble C。来源：北京时间10月1日特斯拉直播）之后，更接近生产的Optimus原型机登台。这一台机器人在外观上有了明显进步，线缆都被包装好，看起来酷炫得多。只是它不能自己行走，而是被几位工作人员搬上了舞台。从电动车到机器人，似乎特斯拉有些不务正业。但实际上，正因为有智能电动车的积累，才让特斯拉的机器人更受重视。（特斯拉展示人形机器人原型机Optimus。来源：特斯拉直播）这里潜伏着特斯拉进军机器人产业的一条底层逻辑。随着汽车越来越智能，“汽车机器人”的到来已经不再遥远。在马斯克眼中，特斯拉电动车是有轮子的机器人，而人形机器人只是没有了轮子而已。在汽车智能化方面，特斯拉具备深厚的技术积累，尤其自动驾驶技术位居头部。如果这些智能技术可以迁移到机器人上，那么特斯拉的人形机器人就有了快速崛起的可能。同时特斯拉电动车的供应链体系，也是其独特优势。中信建投指出，特斯拉电动车具有电动、可移动、智能化三大共同特点，这就决定了两大产品可以共享动力电池、热管理系统、结构件、传感器、电机、电控、减速机等很多供应链。马斯克在此次活动的问答环节表示，生产电动车的经验，可以帮助到机器人的构建。按照定位，特斯拉人形机器人最初是替代人们做一些重复、无聊又危险的事，它们的第一份工作很有可能是在特斯拉工厂里移动物品。长远来看，则要走进千家万户，完成做饭、修草坪、照顾老人等任务。概括而言，马斯克对Optimus的期许是一种通用机器人，可以把人从许多工作中解放出来。马斯克称，人形机器人是特斯拉今年最重要的产品研发，并预测，随着时间推移，这项业务的重要性可能超过电动汽车。但人形机器人的发展过程证明，越是能力强大的机器人，越不容易普及。人形机器人漫长进化大约一百年前，人类便产生了关于机器人的想象。在捷克与美国的科幻和动漫作品中，机器人是无所不能的一种存在。人形机器人的研究，则在20世纪60年代后期起步。日本是较早开展相关研究的国家之一。早稻田大学教授加藤一郎被视为“仿人形机器人之父”。1967年，由加藤一郎创建的加藤实验室启动了WABOT项目。五年后，世界上第一个全尺寸人形“智能”机器人WABOT-1诞生。这是一个身高约2米、体重160公斤的大家伙，和人类一样拥有两只手、两条腿。它的胸部装有两个摄像头，手部还装有触觉传感器。(WABOT-1。来源：早稻田大学)它可以用双脚走路，用手抓住并移动物体，通过视觉和声学传感器，测量与物体之间距离，并且可以跟人类进行语言上的交流。WABOT-1的出现，意味着人形机器人具备了较完备的雏形，在它的基础上，研究人员开始向智能化方向探索，研究人形机器人的自主控制与交互能力，并深入发展一些基础能力。比如，早期的机器人虽然能像人一样用两足行走，但速度很慢。后来的机器人则学会了奔跑。代表产品之一，是ASIMO。这是一款诞生在2000年的机器人，由丰田研发，其外表更接近人类，且移动速度达到了每小时6公里。同时，ASIMO比之前的机器人更为灵活和聪明。它可以跟人手拉手一起走路，还能进行日常的物品搬运，后来不断进化，又学会了单腿跳跃和跳舞。对近些年诞生的人形机器人来说，跳舞的技能早已不新鲜。2016年春晚的广州分会场，国内创业公司优必选的540台机器人为歌手孙楠伴舞。2018年的春晚，优必选STEM机器人在嘉宾圆桌上再次起舞。2019年春晚，6台优必选机器人集体亮相，又秀了一把Popping（震感舞）。但表现最惊艳的是波士顿动力推出的Atlas。它们是当前人形机器人研发的高峰。如果说ASIMO和优必选机器人的表现是跳舞新手，那Atlas就是跳舞高手，其动作之自然流畅远超前者。不仅如此，Atlas还学会了“跑酷”。它能够快速冲上台阶，跑过“独木桥”，在隔开的箱子间跳跃，甚至做够做后空翻。(两位Atlas机器人同时做后空翻。来源：波士顿动力官网截图)这种超越常人认知的发展，让Atlas收获了极大的美誉。相比之下，特斯拉推出的机器人远不够震撼。但问题在于，尽管拥有业内水平最高的Atlas，波士顿动力不被资本市场看好。在过去的发展中，波士顿动力三易其主：2014年被谷歌收购，2017年被软银收购，2020年，它的控制权又到了韩国现代汽车的手上。伴随控制权的转移，波士顿动力的估值也大幅下降。谷歌买入的时候，估值是30亿美元。到现代接手，估值仅剩11亿美元。波士顿动力的遭遇，反映出了限制人形机器人发展的关键困局：即便这些机器人技术先进，能力强大，但高昂的研发成本，让它们难以商业化，更不要说走向大众。事实上，波士顿动力此前被谷歌交易，与商业化方面的分歧也有关系。谷歌方面希望了解波士顿动力的技术，以及如何将这些技术转化为消费类产品。而波士顿动力希望更独立地发展，不愿过多考虑商业化问题。相比之下，马斯克显然考虑了人形机器人如何普及的问题。他在此次活动中声称，特斯拉的设计与其他“令人印象深刻的人形机器人”的不同在于，Optimus是为“数百万”单位的大规模生产而制造。大规模量产可以压低成本，而只有价格足够低，人形机器人才有可能普及。据浙商证券早先报告，Optimus机器人的成本约3万美元，远远低于Atlas约200万美元的成本，且低于特斯拉电动车3.6万美元的单车成本。现在马斯克表示，Optimus量产后的成本会降低到2万美元以下。如果计划顺利，那么人形机器人产业可能随特斯拉的入局而加速发展。但即便价格大幅降低，Optimus在普通消费者眼中的吸引力依旧存疑。一位持有特斯拉股票的投资机构合伙人此前表示，投资者对Optimus并不感到兴奋，认为这类产品在更大范围内发挥作用的可能性很小。Optimus很难摆脱的一个根本问题是，如果只是为了完成某些特定任务，比如它做演示的搬运物品、给花浇水，那么非人形的机器人同样可以完成，且后者的成本可以更低。另外有机器人专家在特斯拉人工智能日之前提到，不要过度相信马斯克。探险机器人时代如果撇开外表，着眼于实际用途，那么能力虽然不够惊艳，但专注于在某些场景为人类服务的机器人，更值得关注。从这个视角来看，实际人类社会已经遍布机器人了，只是绝大部分没有以人的外形出现。北京冬奥会的智慧餐厅里，机器人能烹调中餐西餐，做手冲咖啡，调鸡尾酒。一般商场里，机器人可以进行迎宾和导购。医院的机器人可以操作手术，酒店里的机器人可以做清洁和消毒。（北京冬奥会智慧餐厅）比尔·盖茨曾说：我们总是高估未来2年会发生的改变，低估了未来10年将发生的变化。就整个机器人产业的发展而言，变革在快速发生。据浙商证券报告，全球服务机器人市场规模稳定增长，预计到2023年突破200亿美元。中国电子学会数据显示，2016-2021年全球服务机器人销售额的复合年均增长率为24%，预计2022年全球市场规模将达159.9亿美元。在人口老龄化趋势和劳动力资源短缺的情况下，人类对机器人的需求注定大幅上涨。日本大力发展机器人产业，就与此有关。可以说，一个被机器人深刻改变的时代已经拉开帷幕。人类需要机器人。回到马斯克的探索上。人形机器人的研发，早被证明是吃力难讨好的事情。从2021年透露这方面计划，到这一次人工智能日展示项目进展，特斯拉人形机器人能否大规模普及一直受到质疑。就眼下特斯拉机器人的表现来看，也谈不上亮眼。它们掌握的技能，之前已经有机器人可以做到。但人形机器人的前景的确充满诱惑。可以想象，如果机器人具备了像人一样灵活的关节和运动能力，而且大规模出现在人们的生活中，会是怎样一番景象。《硅谷钢铁侠》这本传记概括马斯克的过往，说他所经历的是一场\"冒险人生\"。现在，人形机器人成了一次新的冒险。结果未必顺利，不过冒险本身就是意义。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916889695,"gmtCreate":1664555630017,"gmtModify":1676537477021,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916889695","repostId":"1128663550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128663550","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664551396,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1128663550?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 23:23","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128663550","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"此中止为上市审核流程中的正常操作，对有关拟上市各项工作无不良影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 30th, the information disclosure of Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Semiconductor Co., Ltd. needs to submit supplementary information because the financial information recorded in the IPO registration application documents has expired. According to the relevant provisions of Article 29 of the Administrative Measures for Registration of Initial Public Offering of Shares on GEM (Trial), its issuance registration procedure is suspended.</p><p>BYD responded that it was actively promoting related work, completing the update of financial information as soon as possible, and resuming the issuance registration procedure. BYD pointed out that this suspension is a normal operation in the listing review process, and has no adverse impact on all the work related to the proposed listing. For details and follow-up progress, please pay attention to the information disclosure website of GEM issuance and listing audit of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBYD Responds to Semiconductor Company's IPO Suspension: Complete Data Update as soon as possible\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-30 23:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 30th, the information disclosure of Shenzhen Stock Exchange showed that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>Semiconductor Co., Ltd. needs to submit supplementary information because the financial information recorded in the IPO registration application documents has expired. According to the relevant provisions of Article 29 of the Administrative Measures for Registration of Initial Public Offering of Shares on GEM (Trial), its issuance registration procedure is suspended.</p><p>BYD responded that it was actively promoting related work, completing the update of financial information as soon as possible, and resuming the issuance registration procedure. BYD pointed out that this suspension is a normal operation in the listing review process, and has no adverse impact on all the work related to the proposed listing. For details and follow-up progress, please pay attention to the information disclosure website of GEM issuance and listing audit of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e5e005a453a59287c71f4cbf428610","relate_stocks":{"00285":"比亚迪电子","01211":"比亚迪股份","002594":"比亚迪"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128663550","content_text":"9月30日，深交所信息披露显示，比亚迪半导体股份有限公司因IPO注册申请文件中记载的财务资料已过有效期，需要补充提交，根据《创业板首次公开发行股票注册管理办法（试行）》第二十九条的相关规定，其发行注册程序中止。比亚迪方面回应称正在积极推进相关工作，尽快完成财务资料更新，恢复发行注册程序。比亚迪方面指出，此中止为上市审核流程中的正常操作，对有关拟上市各项工作无不良影响。具体详情及后续进展请关注深圳证券交易所创业板发行上市审核信息公开网站。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002594":0.9,"00285":0.9,"01211":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962426439,"gmtCreate":1669825888022,"gmtModify":1676538252034,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962426439","repostId":"1133786233","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133786233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669822029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133786233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133786233","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>They \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThey \"survived\"! Sun Hongbin received a 10 billion yuan bailout.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Another real estate tycoon mired in financial difficulties can come back to life.</p><p>In 2019, Sun Hongbin, a thriving white knight, acquired two luxury residential projects from Lu Zhiqiang of Oceanwide, who was then mired in trouble, for a total price of 14.9 billion yuan: Shanghai Dongjiadu and Beijing Oceanwide International. Both projects were top-tier luxury residential projects in the city.</p><p>In the blink of an eye, the white-robed knight from back then also needed the white-robed knight to save him. These two luxury residential projects became the breakthrough point for Sunac's debt restructuring, which had been in trouble for six months.</p><p>On November 28, business registration information showed that Sunac China transferred its 89.7% stake in Oceanwide International Construction to CITIC Trust and Wuhu Huarong Capital Chuangyu Investment Center, with shareholding ratios of 64.7% and 25% respectively, while Sunac's shareholding dropped to 10.3%.</p><p>Oceanwide International Construction is the main body of the two luxury residential projects mentioned above. With the involvement of CITIC and Huarong, these two projects, worth tens of billions of yuan, will be revitalized with the injection of external funds.</p><p>An executive from a state-owned AMC told Wall Street Journal that this is to revitalize Sunac's assets at the project level.</p><p>By acquiring a controlling stake in the project, it can isolate risks with the group and ensure the continuous development of the project. This also aligns with the spirit of the recently introduced \"Sixteen Measures for Finance,\" which encourages financial institutions to distinguish between project and group risks and encourages asset management products such as trusts to support reasonable financing needs for real estate.</p><p>However, the acquisition of controlling stake was not intended to control the company, but simply to provide financing, and the project was still managed by Sunac's team.</p><p>Sources say that CITIC Group will provide 8 billion yuan in liquidity support.</p><p>With the influx of incremental funds, the project will be able to roll out, which will also benefit Sunac's debt repayment. After the corresponding debts are repaid, the excess money will also flow back to the group.</p><p>CITIC Trust and Huarong took over Sunac Assets, similar to how CITIC Bank collaborated with CITIC Group to revitalize Kaisa Group's assets worth over 50 billion yuan. They acquired project equity and injected funds to gradually restore the project company's normal operations and its ability to generate revenue.</p><p>These two projects were chosen because of their high-quality assets. The aforementioned AMC representative said that Sunac's two projects were of good quality, and at the time, AMC institutions such as Cinda also wanted to cooperate with Sunac on a scale of tens of billions of yuan.</p><p>Since then, Sunac, which defaulted on the public market in May, has finally made significant progress in debt restructuring. After months of painstaking negotiations and mediation, Sun Hongbin finally reached an agreement. And the next step is to revitalize tens of billions of yuan in assets.</p><p>Sun Hongbin is a representative of real estate tycoons who are trying to save themselves. Since the second half of 2021, Sun Hongbin has raised nearly 40 billion yuan through the sale of Beike equity, rights issues, interest-free loans from major shareholders, and asset disposal. However, the unexpected market downturn this year still caused him to collapse in May.</p><p>Sources close to Sun Hongbin said that for the past six months, Mr. Sun has hardly been in the office, but has been traveling around in various places to find financial institutions and seek support.</p><p>Now, after more than half a year of hard work, Sun Hongbin has finally received the help of the white knight.</p><p>Financial institutions are also willing to support Sun Hongbin, and Sunac's products still enjoy a good reputation in the market.</p><p>Wall Street Insights has also learned that Sunac and its creditors are currently discussing a preliminary restructuring plan, and most creditors have expressed their support for Sunac to restructure its debt. The restructuring plan is expected to be announced later this year.</p><p>Just the night before (November 29), Sunac also released its 2021 earnings forecast. This is a fundamental element for Sunac's stock to resume trading, and it is also a signal that Sun Hongbin and Sunac are gradually emerging from their current predicament.</p><p>According to CRIC data, in the first 11 months of this year, Sunac ranked tenth in the country with sales of 153.05 billion yuan, making it one of the few private real estate companies in the top ten outside of Country Garden and Longfor. Meanwhile, Sunac ranked third in sales in Shanghai.</p><p>Of course, in order to resume trading, Sunac also needs to resolve the issue of overseas liquidation lawsuits. However, CIFI has recently reached a settlement with its creditors, who withdrew their winding-up petition. With CITIC Group's involvement in revitalizing Sunac's assets, it is believed that investors will be able to find a suitable solution with Sunac.</p><p>All indications suggest that Sun Hongbin, a real estate tycoon known for his generosity and outspokenness, is gradually regaining his vitality after months of silence. The next step is to revitalize projects such as the Dongjiadu project to help bring a number of projects back to life. At the same time, it is to further gain the support of creditors and reach a debt restructuring plan, buying time and space.</p><p>Many people in the real estate and financial sectors are closely following Sunac and Sun Hongbin. They hope that in the near future, Sun Hongbin, the tycoon who once fell and was reborn during the Sunac era, will stage a miracle of \"coming back from the dead\" at Sunac, and that he and the company will be able to regain their vitality after the industry adjustment.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1f161e88fa8de9ce4f4457224c02fa6","relate_stocks":{"01918":"融创中国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676317","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133786233","content_text":"身陷资金困局的地产大佬，又可以活过来一个了。2019年，风头正盛的白衣骑士孙宏斌，以149亿总价从当时深陷泥沼的泛海卢志强手里，接下了两个豪宅项目，上海董家渡和北京泛海国际，这两个项目都是城市顶级豪宅的存在。转眼，当年的白衣骑士如今也需要白衣骑士来救了。而这两个豪宅项目，成了出险6个月的融创债务重组的突破口。11月28日，工商信息显示，融创中国将其持有的泛海国际建设89.7%股权，转让给了中信信托及芜湖华融资本创誉投资中心，持股比例分别为64.7%、25%，融创的持股则降到了10.3%。泛海国际建设便是前述两个豪宅项目的主体。随着中信和华融的介入，这两个货值数百亿的项目，也将在外部资金的注入下得以盘活。一名国有AMC人士向华尔街见闻分析称，这就是要在项目层面对融创的资产进行盘活。通过获取项目的控股权，能和集团做风险隔离，保障项目持续开发。这也符合近期出台的“金融十六条”里的相关精神，比如鼓励金融机构区分项目和集团风险、鼓励信托等资管产品支持房地产合理融资需求。不过，获取控股权，不是为了掌控这家公司，而只是提供融资，项目仍由融创的团队操盘。有消息人士称，此次中信系将会带来80亿元资金，给予流动性支持。随着增量资金进入，项目就能滚动起来，对于融创的债务偿还也有好处。在偿还完相应债务后，多余的钱也会回流到集团。中信信托和华融接手融创资产，和之前中信银行协同中信集团盘活佳兆业超500亿货值资产类似，收购项目股权，注入资金，让项目公司逐步恢复正常经营，恢复造血能力。而选择这两个项目，也是因为其资产优质。前述AMC人士说，融创的这两个项目质地不错，当时信达等AMC机构也想和融创进行百亿级规模的合作。自此，5月份在公开市场违约的融创，终于有了重大的债务重组进展。孙宏斌苦苦谈判、斡旋了几个月的事宜，也有了着落。并且一下就是数百亿资产的盘活。孙宏斌是地产大佬当中努力自救的一个代表。从2021年下半年至今，孙宏斌已经陆续通过出售贝壳股权、配股、大股东无息借款以及处置资产等形式，回笼了近400亿元资金。然而今年以来市场超预期的下行，还是让他倒在了5月。有接近孙宏斌的人士表示，最近半年多里老孙几乎不在办公室，都是在各地奔波，就是为了找金融机构，寻求支持。如今，奔波了大半年的孙宏斌，终是迎来了白衣骑士的驰援。金融机构也是愿意支持孙宏斌的，融创的产品在市场上依旧还是有着不错的口碑。华尔街见闻也了解到，目前融创和债权人小组在沟通初步重组方案，大部分债权人也对融创通过债务重组表示支持。预计会在今年年内对外公布重组方案。就在前一天（11月29日）晚上，融创还公布了2021年业绩预告。这是融创股票要复牌的一个基本要素，也是孙宏斌和融创逐渐走出眼下困境的信号。克而瑞数据显示，今年前11个月，融创以1530.5 亿元的销售额排在全国第十，是碧桂园、龙湖之外，前十里少有的民营房企。同时，融创在上海销售额排在第三位。当然，想要复牌，融创还需要解决境外的清盘诉讼的问题。不过近期旭辉已和债权人达成了和解，债权人撤回了清盘呈请。随着这次中信系介入融创资产盘活，相信投资者也能够和融创方面寻找到合适的解决方案。种种迹象表明，孙宏斌这位地产界里以豪爽、敢言著称的大佬，在沉寂数月后，逐渐恢复了活力。接下来，便是通过对董家渡项目等的盘活，推动一批项目“活过来”。同时则是进一步获取债权人的支持，达成债务重组方案，以时间换空间。很多地产界、金融界人士都密切关注着融创和孙宏斌。他们期望在不久后，孙宏斌这位曾经在顺驰阶段摔倒重生的大佬，在融创身上又能上演一出“死而复生”的奇迹，他和这家公司在行业调整结束后，还能重新焕发生机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989226753,"gmtCreate":1666021029372,"gmtModify":1676537693585,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989226753","repostId":"1196156325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196156325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666018983,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196156325?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-17 23:03","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"A major turn in UK tax cut policy!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196156325","media":"国际金融报 ","summary":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特","content":"<p><div>British government bonds, currencies, and stocks began to rise on October 17 local time as new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turning point after days of political and market turmoil in the UK. According to AFP, Hunt announced on the 17th the cancellation of debt-driven tax cuts in an effort to further calm market turmoil, marking another major shift by the British government. \"We will repeal almost all of the tax measures announced three weeks ago,\" Hunt said in a televised address. \"Our country's most important goal right now is stability.\" According to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A major turn in UK tax cut policy!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA major turn in UK tax cut policy!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国际金融报 </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-17 23:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>British government bonds, currencies, and stocks began to rise on October 17 local time as new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt reversed Prime Minister Truss's economic growth plan, the latest turning point after days of political and market turmoil in the UK. According to AFP, Hunt announced on the 17th the cancellation of debt-driven tax cuts in an effort to further calm market turmoil, marking another major shift by the British government. \"We will repeal almost all of the tax measures announced three weeks ago,\" Hunt said in a televised address. \"Our country's most important goal right now is stability.\" According to...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg\">国际金融报 </a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05bdf200c4138336b0f7e4174ef1a988","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KQ52V3AhBLgVhqHc2CGvNg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196156325","content_text":"由于英国新任财政大臣亨特（Jeremy Hunt）扭转了英首相特拉斯的经济增长计划，英国政府的债券、货币和股票于当地时间10月17日开始上涨，这是英国政治和市场数日动荡后的最新转折。据法新社报道，亨特于17日宣布取消了由债务推动的减税政策，以进一步平息市场动荡，这是英国政府的又一次重大转变。“我们将撤销三周前宣布的几乎所有税收措施。”亨特在电视讲话中说，“我们国家目前最重要的目标是稳定。”另据《华尔街日报》报道，亨特实际上放弃了首相特拉斯的标志性减税计划。亨特表示，为了恢复市场对英国经济的信心，有些税需要上调，公共开支需要削减。他认为，特拉斯举债支持减税来促进增长的计划是个错误。报道指出，这些自20世纪70年代以来最大规模的减税措施使市场“受到惊吓”，令保守党在民调中的支持率陡降。“通过增加借款和债务来为减税提供资金的做法行不通。”亨特说，“减税的前提是，政府能够负担得起相关资金。”声明发布后，英镑对美元汇率一度飙升1.4%至盘中高点，最后上涨不到1%，对欧元汇率则略低，与公告发布前大致相同。伦敦当日的富时100指数上涨0.5%，关注英国国内中型股的富时250指数表现优于欧洲同行，上涨1%。目前，市场对亨特的声明虽反应积极，但仍有声音担忧，该声明能否得到政府或保守党的支持？政策连续转弯，也让英国首相特拉斯的执政信誉受到重创，部分议员据称正在酝酿“逼宫”。“几乎所有减税措施被逆转”英国天空新闻网报道称，亨特在一份声明表示，在“迷你预算”政策中的“几乎所有”减税措施都被取消了。据报道，亨特取消了从明年4月起将个人所得税基本税率从20%下调至19%的计划。他说，基本税率将无限期地保持在20%，直到经济环境允许下调为止。亨特表示，没有哪个政府能够控制市场，但它可以为公共财政提供确定性。他说，他宣布的计划将在本月底全面财政计划公布之前避免不确定性，这将带来信心和稳定。能源方面，亨特称，措施中最大的单项支出是能源价格保障，这是一项里程碑式的政策，支持数百万人度过一个艰难的冬天。从明年4月开始，财政部将牵头进行一项评估，研究如何帮助家庭和企业解决能源账单问题。能源价格保障将于明年4月结束。他说：“我们的目标是设计一种新的方法，既节省纳税人的钱，又把援助的目标对准那些最需要帮助的人。”报道称，市场对亨特的声明反应积极，英镑兑美元延续了早盘的涨势。该声明还导致英国政府债券的利率(或收益率)下降，降低了政府借款的成本。英国广播公司(BBC)经济学编辑称，该声明不同寻常，这或许标志着英国经济史上最大的180度大转弯。该声明应该有助于恢复经济信誉，但这是一个如此大的政治转变，以至于人们怀疑整个内阁、政府和保守党是否会支持它，但这位新财政大臣要传达的信息是：别无选择。特拉斯能否度过危机？路透社称，该声明比原计划提前两周，亨特正在努力阻止投资者对特拉斯领导的政府信心急剧下降。自前不久接替被解职的克沃滕以来，亨特一直在努力改写特拉斯的经济计划。英国《金融时报》17日报道称，亨特承认，特拉斯政府9月出台的“迷你预算”政策“走得太远、太快”。他还批评前任克沃滕犯了两个重大“错误”，并称相关两项措施正在“被纠正”。目前，英国民众饱受通胀之苦，家庭能源账单将飙升至历史最高水平。分析人士指出，在物价全面上涨、民众生活成本飙升的背景下，政府大规模的减税措施将进一步刺激英国的通胀率。英国一位高级官员表示，“特拉斯做的显然还不够，接下来还会有更多的掉头和更多的痛苦。我不认为他们意识到了情况可能会变得更糟。”《金融时报》指出，任何更多的政府政策掉头都很可能进一步危及首相的地位。一些资深议会议员预测，她将难以渡过当前危机。有英媒指出，超100名保守党议员已经准备好本周提交针对特拉斯的不信任案。9月23日，英国政府宣布该国50年来最大规模减税措施，但却引发市场动荡，饱受外界质疑和批评。重重压力之下，英国政府的减税措施于10月3日出现重大转折，政府宣布放弃取消最高所得税税率计划。仅10余天的时间，英国政府又做出重大政策调整。特拉斯14日宣布，将保留上届政府宣布的公司税上调计划，而她在保守党党魁竞选中曾承诺将取消该增长。她还炒掉了亨特的前任克沃滕，但特拉斯未能借助这些举措来安抚市场。在她匆匆举行为时大约8分钟的唐宁街新闻发布会后，英国国债市场遭遇新一轮抛售，减税计划所引发的动荡仍在持续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBPmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9036272693,"gmtCreate":1647134772940,"gmtModify":1676534196941,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9036272693","repostId":"1177231006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177231006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646635096,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177231006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-07 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: On the 13th, US daylight saving time, US stocks opened one hour earlier.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177231006","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2022 will begin at 2:00 AM Eastern Time on March 13, 2022, and end at 2:00 AM Eastern Time on November 6, 2022. At that time, the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour to Beijing time, which will change from 9:30 PM Monday to Friday to 4:00 AM the following day. March 14th was the first trading day for US stocks after the start of daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM (No lunch break); Beijing time: 21:30-04:00 the next day (daylight saving time, March to early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 04:00-09:30; Beijing time: 16:00-21:30 (Daylight Saving Time, March-early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 16:00-20:00; Beijing time: 04:00-08:00 (Daylight Saving Time, March to early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday of November to the second Sunday of March of the following year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: On the 13th, US daylight saving time, US stocks opened one hour earlier.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: On the 13th, US daylight saving time, US stocks opened one hour earlier.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-07 14:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2022 will begin at 2:00 AM Eastern Time on March 13, 2022, and end at 2:00 AM Eastern Time on November 6, 2022. At that time, the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour to Beijing time, which will change from 9:30 PM Monday to Friday to 4:00 AM the following day. March 14th was the first trading day for US stocks after the start of daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM (No lunch break); Beijing time: 21:30-04:00 the next day (daylight saving time, March to early November)</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 04:00-09:30; Beijing time: 16:00-21:30 (Daylight Saving Time, March-early November)</p><p><b>After-hours trading</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 16:00-20:00; Beijing time: 04:00-08:00 (Daylight Saving Time, March to early November)</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday of November to the second Sunday of March of the following year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177231006","content_text":"美国2022年夏令时将于2022年3月13日美东时间02：00开始，至2022年11月6日美东时间02：00终止，届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00。3月14日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30（夏令时，3月~11月初）盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（夏令时，3月~11月初）（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899621104,"gmtCreate":1628179742708,"gmtModify":1703502760385,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899621104","repostId":"1177628375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177628375","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628175372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177628375?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-05 22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Square, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177628375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV","content":"<p>On Thursday, US mobile payment companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>The market continued to rise after the opening, rising more than 6% as of press time, setting a new all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently released its second-quarter financial report ahead of schedule. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased by 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and gross transaction payments (GPV) increased by 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, of which $2.72 billion came from Bitcoin.</p><p>In addition, Square announced the acquisition of Australian financial payments company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition to date, not only expanding its consumer market but also presenting a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue expanding into the US market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare, the \"North American Alipay,\" continues to rise, hitting a new all-time high.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 22:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, US mobile payment companies<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a>The market continued to rise after the opening, rising more than 6% as of press time, setting a new all-time high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616749dc4d59b9cf8728aeaf1cc3b42\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The company recently released its second-quarter financial report ahead of schedule. Total net revenue increased by more than 143%, gross profit increased by 91% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, and gross transaction payments (GPV) increased by 88% to $42.8 billion. Total revenue, including Bitcoin, was $4.68 billion, of which $2.72 billion came from Bitcoin.</p><p>In addition, Square announced the acquisition of Australian financial payments company Afterpay for $29 billion. This is Square's largest acquisition to date, not only expanding its consumer market but also presenting a good opportunity for Afterpay to continue expanding into the US market.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c35001aff2d0c88ed509c6e83cf2e54","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177628375","content_text":"周四，美国移动支付企业Square开盘后持续走高，截至发稿涨超6%，创历史新高。\n\n公司近日提前公开二季度财报。总净收入增长超过 143%，毛利润同比增长91%达到11.4亿美元，总交易支付额（GPV）增长88%达到428亿美元。包括比特币在内的总营收为46.8亿美元，其中比特币一项收入达到27.2亿美元。\n此外，Square还宣布以290亿美元的价格收购澳洲金融支付公司Afterpay。这是迄今为止Square最大的一笔收购，不仅为自己扩大了消费者市场，对Afterpay继续开拓美国市场无疑也是个好机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362362147,"gmtCreate":1614598404689,"gmtModify":1704772860919,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"looking forward to long term","listText":"looking forward to long term","text":"looking forward to long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362362147","repostId":"1161169607","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161169607","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614584947,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161169607?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-01 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161169607","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yiel","content":"<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efd3fa48c3856c9963ae7e9f6e6de625\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"232\">It's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"<b>the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>First, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Predictably,<i><b>Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"</b></i>with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So what<i><b>would</b></i>cause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"<b>keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"</b>But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cdbd39d9b2a4e20ee8ef423435a57d7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"169\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Second, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Addressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast that<b>S&amp;P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.</b>In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Third, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>As the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,<b>but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.</b>Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a23015dc5dbaee1d4660e8e902a000\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"175\">Of course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications for<i><b>rotations within the equity market,</b></i>a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,<b>this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.</b>Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&amp;P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.</p>\n<p>As Kostin writes, \"<b>this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"</b>One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is that<b>a basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.</b>The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.</p>\n<p>To be sure, while earnings for S&amp;P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,<b>the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.</b>In fact,<b>1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.</b></p>\n<p>Getting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.<b>But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"</b>Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"<b>those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672e0f0b03d6b3cec8ec067276919bf9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"171\"><b>Recently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.</b>The cyclical and virus-affected firms with<b>negative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.</b>Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,<b>the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.</b>Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00a42075ac35763072cb85546315087\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\">Putting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"<b>looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"</b>The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b2dbfc010259d8bc5120f85d13070\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"364\">And although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes that<b>those stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.</b></p>\n<p>Which brings us to the other side of the table: the<b>chart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021</b>. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e14fcedd553203d06c6a3639a17f8f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Companies Are Most At Risk From Surging Yields: Goldman Answers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/which-companies-are-most-risk-surging-yields-goldman-answers?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161169607","content_text":"For those living under a rock in 2021, the big story in the past month is that 10-year Treasury yield have climbed by 50 bps in a month to 1.5% (technically as high as 1.61% for a few brief seconds on Thursday after the catastrophic 7Y auction triggered stop loss selling) as real rates jumped following a steady increase in inflation expectations (breakevens), which however are largely set by 10Y TIPS whose price is determined largely by the Fed due to its massive ongoing monetization of TIPS (thus crushing any actual signaling power TIPS may have). Whatever the cause, while rising breakeven inflation has driven most of the rise in yields during the past six months, the last two weeks have been characterized by a 40 bp jump in real yields.\nIt's this sudden spike in real yields as opposed to breakevens, that has sparked much of the fear in markets in the past week, because as Goldman's David Kostin explains in his Sunday Start note, \"conceptually, and historically, equities digest rising inflation expectations more easily than rising real yields\" and not just rising real yields, but a rapid spike the likes of which were last observed during the taper tantrum as we discussed two weeks ago in \"Yields Soar, Sending 30Y Real Rates Positive Amid Overheating Panic: What Happens Next\"). In any case, as a result of the violent moves in the rates complex, it is hardly a surprise that Kostin writes \"the recent backup in rates has sparked a new wave of client concern.\"\n\nFirst, investors ask whether the level of rates is becoming a threat to equity valuations.\n\nPredictably,Goldman's answer is an emphatic \"no\"with Kostin claiming (with a straight face) that \"although the S&P 500 forward P/E multiple of 22x currently ranks in the 99th historical percentile since 1976, ranking only behind the peak of the Tech Bubble in 2000, our dividend discount model (DDM) implies an equity risk premium (ERP) that ranks in the 28th percentile, 70 bp above the historical average.\" In other words, massively, record stretched PE multiples won't collapse if rates rise. Yeah, right. May want to Timestamp that David. We'll check back in a few weeks. So whatwouldcause a market crash according to Goldman's head market cheerleader? Well, according to Kostin, \"keeping the current P/E constant, the 10-year yield would have to reach 2.1% to bring the yield gap to the historical median of 250 bp.If instead the yield gap remains unchanged, and rates rise to 2.0%, then the P/E multiple would fall by 10% to 20x.\"But don't worry, Kostin adds, because \"in today’s economic environment, our macro model suggests the ERP should be narrower than average.\" Translation: yes, a 10% drop is coming but our models say it may not come, so just keep buying.\n\n\nSecond, Goldman's bullish US equity view has already embedded expectations of rising interest rates.\n\nAddressing the second most regular pushback against its bizarre optimism, Goldman says that an environment of accelerating economic growth (and recall that recently Goldman found that theUS Economy is Growing At the Fastest Pace On Record), and higher bond yields is consistent with the bank's forecast thatS&P 500 EPS in 2021 will grow by 27% and be 10% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, driving a 14% rise this year to our year-end price target of 4300 despite a flat P/E multiple.In other words, multiples may indeed contract but the rise in earnings - a result of economic growth - will offset much if not all of the move. Furthermore, the forward market implies that 10-year nominal yields will climb 25 bp further to 1.7% - below Goldman's 2.1% redline - and real yields will climb by a similar amount to from -0.7% to -0.4% by year-end.\n\nThird, even Kostin is forced to concede that the recent change in yields has reached a magnitude that is usually a headwind for stocks.\n\nAs the Goldman strategist concedes, equities have generated an average return of nearly +1% per month,but the return has averaged -1% during months when nominal rates rose by more than two standard deviations and -5% when real yields rose by that amount.Today, a two standard deviation monthly rise in 10-year rates equates to 40 bp for nominal yields and 30 bp for real yields, both thresholds exceeded this week.\nOf course, it's not just absolute levels across risk that are impacted by rates: Kostin also notes that \"shifting interest rates have major implications forrotations within the equity market,a dynamic made clear in recent weeks.\" In mid-2020, Kostin's equity valuation model showed that equity duration –the expectations of earnings growth far in the future –had become a more important contributor to multiples than ever before. One key reason for the importance that investors ascribed to expected future growth was the extremely low level of interest rates. As rates have risen, the contribution of equity duration to stock valuations has declined while near-term growth profiles have become more important. Practically,this means that both the improving growth outlook and rising rates have supported the outperformance of cyclicals and value stocks relative to stocks with the highest long-term growth.Hardly surprising, in recent weeks Goldman's S&P 500 Growth factor has declined by 9%, similar to the 12% decline around the announcement of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine efficacy in November\nWhich brings us to the one sector most at risk from the continued risk in yields.\nAs Kostin writes, \"this rotation has also weighed on one of the most spectacular outperformers of the last 12 months: Stocks with negative earnings but strong expected growth.\"One of the most remarkable moves of the past year is thata basket of non-profitable tech stocks soared by 204% last year and 27% in the first six weeks of 2021... before falling by 15% in last two weeks.The decline of these high-growth firms has been particularly painful given the current record degree of leverage carried by hedge funds and the elevated activity of retail traders, both of whom have recently favored some of these long-duration stocks.\nTo be sure, while earnings for S&P 500 firms declined by 13% in 2020, the fall in aggregate profits does not capture the wide dispersion in operating results that occurred inside the market. While 2020 EPS growth was negative for the overall index and the median stock,the actual level of profits was positive... But not for every company.In fact,1082 firms or 37% of the constituents in the Russell 3000 posted negative net income in 2020 (i.e., a loss or negative EPS), and 21% posted negative EBITDA.\nGetting even more granular (and apologizing to George Orwell), Kostin then notes that all companies with losses are equal, but some are more equal than others. Some firms reported negative earnings in 2020 because the pandemic and economic shutdown disrupted their business and crushed their revenues.But in other instances, the Goldman strategist points out that \"companies grew sales so rapidly that top-line was the focus of investors and bottom-line losses were ignored.\"Indeed, consider that across all non-Financial US stocks with at least $50 million in revenues, \"those with negative earnings and declining revenues in 2020 returned a median of -18% last year. In contrast, stocks with negative earnings and growing revenues returned +51%.\"\nRecently, however, improving economic growth prospects from vaccination rollout and pending fiscal stimulus coupled with rising rates have moved firms that struggled most in 2020 into pole position so far in 2021.The cyclical and virus-affected firms withnegative earnings and falling sales in 2020 have generated a median YTD return of +22%, outperforming the +10% return of the median stock that posted a loss but grew sales last year.Unsurprisingly, these cyclical stocks have been positively correlated with both nominal and real interest rates. In contrast,the ultra long-duration stocks have been negatively correlated with interest rates given they generate no earnings today and their valuations depend entirely on future growth prospects.Cyclicals also carry far lower valuations, with a median EV/2022 sales ratio of 2x vs. 6x for the median negative earner with positive sales growth.\nPutting it all together, Kostin concludes that \"looking forward, investors must balance the appeal of promising businesses with the risk that rates rise further and the recent rotation continues.\"The list of non-profitable companies that makes up GOldman's Non-Profitable Tech basket is shown below:\nAnd although secular growth stocks may remain the most appealing investments on a long-term horizon, Goldman believes thatthose stocks will underperform more cyclical firms in the short-term if economic acceleration and inflation continue to lift interest rates.\nWhich brings us to the other side of the table: thechart below shows the Russell 1000 firms from each sector with the shortest implied equity durations that have outperformed sector peers during the past two weeks as rates rose and are expected to grow revenues in 2021. The median stock trades at a P/E ratio of 19x and has returned 7% YTD compared with 22x and 2% for the Russell 1000 median.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929245153,"gmtCreate":1670687391372,"gmtModify":1676538417414,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929245153","repostId":"1135427428","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135427428","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670641879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135427428?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Does a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135427428","media":"智通财经网","summary":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored various warnings—from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the collapse of the sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now seem to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall 3.4% this week after the index failed to hold above its 200-day average. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve would slow down rate hike had driven U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now soured, with concerns that if the Fed does indeed slow down rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing under the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies. The U.S. service sector contracted last month; Although the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with the number of first-time unemployment claims increasing recently. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but it remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve on guard, increasing the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: “We will shift from ‘bad data is good news’ to ‘bad data is bad news’ because it is a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view a series of discouraging economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason for a rally driven by the Federal Reserve's prospects for easing policy. Meanwhile, US inflation remains high – as evidenced by the better-than-expected US PPI growth in November. Overall, this is enough to suppress the upward trend since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since the stock market peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices of raw material producers. Companies that are more sensitive to the economy, such as financial companies and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged behind in December.</p><p>This shift is also evident in the fixed income sector. In early 2022, when inflation fears raged, bonds plummeted on three occasions when the S&P 500 fell by at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as recession hedges. On Wednesday, long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield fell below 3.5%, the lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has risen 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you buy stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, that means an economic downturn will also come at some point in the future. So be careful when you make wishes.\"</p><p>In recent days, this information has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the prospects for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits. Even sell-side analysts who tend to tout the assets they sell have been clearly pessimistic in their predictions of a decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 points next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also indicate that investors are moving away from risky assets. EPFR data shows that investors withdrew from global stock markets at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared to $23 billion they had hoarded a week earlier. The volatility signals also reinforce the transience of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>Technical indicators that stimulated buying in November have fallen this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average and subsequently fell below the pullback/retracement level, which helps the bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To further complicate matters, the stock market rally in November triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs indicator, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to shift to an easing policy starting next year.</p><p>After being troubled by the intensity and persistence of inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike at around 5%. This is bad news for the economy, which is expected to contract sometime next year.</p><p>\"There's still a lot of pain to go through,\" said Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial. \"We've seen almost no lag effects from this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes a dovish Fed mean US stocks are rising? The market is starting to worry about a recession.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-10 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Persistent warnings that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession have finally struck a nerve on Wall Street. Over the past two months, investors have ignored various warnings—from the worst inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 40 years to the collapse of the sharp rise in oil prices in 2022; But investors now seem to be betting that the biggest threat to risky assets is an impending slowdown in economic growth.</p><p>Cyclical stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall 3.4% this week after the index failed to hold above its 200-day average. Although optimism that the Federal Reserve would slow down rate hike had driven U.S. stocks up 14% since mid-October, investor sentiment has now soured, with concerns that if the Fed does indeed slow down rate hike, it will signal a downturn in the U.S. economy.</p><p>There are already signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing under the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening policies. The U.S. service sector contracted last month; Although the labor market remains strong, there has been some weakness, with the number of first-time unemployment claims increasing recently. Meanwhile, inflation may have peaked, but it remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve on guard, increasing the risk of excessive tightening.</p><p>Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said: “We will shift from ‘bad data is good news’ to ‘bad data is bad news’ because it is a signal that the economy is weakening faster and worse than most people expect.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c916ab1d72ccba5e0bd166e03aeef039\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Markets have begun to view a series of discouraging economic news as bad news, rather than as a reason for a rally driven by the Federal Reserve's prospects for easing policy. Meanwhile, US inflation remains high – as evidenced by the better-than-expected US PPI growth in November. Overall, this is enough to suppress the upward trend since the fall.</p><p>Energy stocks have led the decline since the stock market peaked on the last day of November, unlike the first three sell-offs in 2022, when rising inflation spurred share prices of raw material producers. Companies that are more sensitive to the economy, such as financial companies and consumer goods manufacturers, lagged behind in December.</p><p>This shift is also evident in the fixed income sector. In early 2022, when inflation fears raged, bonds plummeted on three occasions when the S&P 500 fell by at least 10% from its peak. Now, bonds have begun to regain their status as recession hedges. On Wednesday, long-term U.S. Treasury Bond prices rose, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield fell below 3.5%, the lowest level since September last year. The iShares 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has risen 9% in the past three weeks.</p><p>Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said: \"If you buy stocks based on the idea that interest rates will be cut at some point in the future, unfortunately, that means an economic downturn will also come at some point in the future. So be careful when you make wishes.\"</p><p>In recent days, this information has been supported by executives at major Wall Street banks, whose CEOs are unanimously pessimistic about the prospects for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits. Even sell-side analysts who tend to tout the assets they sell have been clearly pessimistic in their predictions of a decline in 2023. The average forecast of strategists tracked by the media is that the S&P 500 will close at 4,009 points next year, their most pessimistic forecast since at least 1999.</p><p>Positions and trading patterns also indicate that investors are moving away from risky assets. EPFR data shows that investors withdrew from global stock markets at the fastest pace in five months, selling $35 billion in the past three weeks, compared to $23 billion they had hoarded a week earlier. The volatility signals also reinforce the transience of the recent rally, reflecting the situation before the end of the rally in March and August.</p><p>Technical indicators that stimulated buying in November have fallen this week. The S&P 500 failed to hold above its 200-day moving average and subsequently fell below the pullback/retracement level, which helps the bulls.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0366d1ab17554afa57bf8480fcf4ca9\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"504\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>To further complicate matters, the stock market rally in November triggered the fastest easing of financial conditions since March 2020, according to a Goldman Sachs indicator, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to shift to an easing policy starting next year.</p><p>After being troubled by the intensity and persistence of inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve policymakers appear determined to peak rate hike at around 5%. This is bad news for the economy, which is expected to contract sometime next year.</p><p>\"There's still a lot of pain to go through,\" said Justin Burgin, head of equity research at Ameriprise Financial. \"We've seen almost no lag effects from this fastest rate hike in history.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/845337.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1135427428","content_text":"有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。有关美国经济正滑向衰退的持续警告终于触动了华尔街的神经。过去两个月里，投资者无视各种警告——从40年来最严重的美债收益率曲线倒挂，到2022年油价大幅上涨的破灭;但投资者现在似乎开始押注风险资产面临的最大威胁是经济增长即将放缓。周期性股票导致标普500指数本周下跌3.4%，此前该指数未能维持在过去200天的平均价格之上。尽管自10月中旬以来，对美联储将放慢加息步伐的乐观情绪曾推动美国股市上涨14%，但投资者的情绪现在已经变得阴沉起来，他们担心美联储果真放慢加息步伐，将标志着美国经济陷入低迷。已经有迹象表明，在美联储激进的紧缩政策下，美国经济增长正在放缓。美国服务业上月出现萎缩;尽管劳动力市场依然强劲，但也出现了一些疲软，最近首续请失业金人数增加。与此同时，通胀可能已经见顶，但仍高到足以让美联储保持警惕，增加了过度紧缩的风险。Academy Securities宏观策略主管Peter Tchir表示:“我们将从‘坏数据就是好消息’转变成‘坏数据就是坏消息’，因为这是一个信号，表明经济正在以比大多数人预期的更快、更糟的速度走弱。”市场已经开始将一连串令人沮丧的经济消息视为坏消息，而不是将其视为美联储放宽政策前景带来的上涨理由。与此同时，美国通胀依然居高不下——美国11月PPI增速超预期就是明证。综合来看，这足以打压秋季以来的涨势。自股市在11月最后一天见顶以来，能源股领跌，这与2022年的前三次抛售不同，当时通胀加剧刺激了对原材料生产商的股价。对经济更为敏感的公司，如金融公司和消费品制造商，在12月份的表现较为滞后。这种转变在固定收益领域也很明显。在2022年早些时候，当通胀恐慌肆虐时，标普500指数从峰值下跌至少10%的三次情况中，债券都出现了暴跌。现在，债券已经开始恢复其作为经济衰退对冲的地位。周三，长期美国国债价格上涨，30年期美国国债收益率跌至3.5%以下，这是去年9月以来的最低水平。iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF在过去三周上涨了9%。Interactive Brokers首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示:“如果你是基于未来某个时候会降息的想法来购买股票，不幸的是，这意味着经济疲软也会在未来某个时候到来。所以你许愿的时候一定要小心。”最近几天，这一信息得到了华尔街大行高管的支持，华尔街大行的首席执行官们一致对美国经济增长和企业盈利前景持悲观态度。即使是倾向于吹捧自己销售的资产的卖方分析师，也一直在明显悲观地预测，2023年将出现下跌。媒体追踪的策略师的平均预测是，标普500指数明年将收于4009点，这是他们至少自1999年以来最悲观的预测。仓位和交易模式也显示出投资者正在远离风险资产。EPFR的数据显示，投资者以五个月来最快的速度撤出全球股市，在过去三周抛售了350亿美元，而一周前他们还囤积了230亿美元。波动幅度的信号也强化了近期涨势的短暂性，反映了如3月和8月涨势结束前的情况。11月曾刺激买盘的技术指标水平本周出现回落。标普500指数未能守住200日移动均线上方，随后跌穿为多头提供帮助的回撤水平。让事情进一步复杂化的是，根据高盛集团的一项指标，11月的股市上涨引发了自2020年3月以来金融状况最快的宽松，这让人们对美联储从明年开始转向宽松政策的能力产生了怀疑。在被通胀压力的强度和持久力所困后，美联储政策制定者似乎决心将加息到5%左右的峰值。这对于明年某个时候将出现收缩的经济来说是个坏消息。Ameriprise Financial股票研究主管Justin Burgin表示:“还有很多痛苦要经历。我们几乎没有看到这次历史上最快加息的滞后效应。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}