Lawrance personal page - To The Moon

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2021-04-09

$SOS Limited(SOS)$gogogo

2021-03-04

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$?

2021-03-03

$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？

2021-03-01

$SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！

2021-02-27

$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?

2021-02-19

$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed up

2021-02-19

$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$where is the report

2021-02-18

?

US Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>gogogo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>gogogo","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f294a308409227d45bc0b0237d91a4b","width":"1080","height":"2337"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348868975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3565765044728716","authorId":"3565765044728716","name":"Dokota_fanni","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4285a986cb76f61feab73ee72b020b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565765044728716","idStr":"3565765044728716"},"content":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","text":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","html":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364590871,"gmtCreate":1614861724893,"gmtModify":1704776162348,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>?","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b05dda53794a57e4c09dfb82032e66d","width":"898","height":"195"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364590871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365481144,"gmtCreate":1614770660188,"gmtModify":1704774994949,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fda？？","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365481144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362305182,"gmtCreate":1614593214946,"gmtModify":1704772794801,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOS\">$SOS Limited(SOS)$</a>fly to the moon ！","text":"$SOS Limited(SOS)$fly to the moon ！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073aa4df108056ffcf7bdca006869fb","width":"1176","height":"2091"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362305182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366989563,"gmtCreate":1614383909352,"gmtModify":1704771380398,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366989563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387133078,"gmtCreate":1613726474794,"gmtModify":1704884178040,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADMP\">$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$</a>fed up","text":"$Adamis Pharmaceuticals Corporation(ADMP)$fed up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/387133078","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384753279,"gmtCreate":1613693244091,"gmtModify":1704883703988,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>where is the report","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>where is the report","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$where is the report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384753279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384259858,"gmtCreate":1613658158374,"gmtModify":1704883314612,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384259858","repostId":"1152855899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152855899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613657987,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152855899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152855899","media":"国盛策略","summary":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象","content":"<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extremely divergent pattern, with institutional grouping intensifying and the strong rise of \"grouped stocks\" triggering a rise in market sentiment. Recently, \"group-buying stocks\" have experienced a pullback, and investors' concerns about \"leading companies being too tightly grouped together\" and \"the group collapsing\" are intensifying. So how long can the phenomenon of banding together last? Will the alliance collapse? How will the future of banding together unfold? The experience of the US stock market over the past 20 years has provided us with lessons to learn.</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>I. US Stocks: Institutional Clusters Are the Norm</b></p><p><b>It is common for institutional groups to form alliances in the US stock market, and their influence is constantly increasing.</b>As institutional investors have grown and expanded in the US stock market, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly over the past 20 years. Currently, the market value of institutional shareholdings accounts for as much as 70% of the total market value, making them the dominant force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of stocks had institutional ownership of more than 80%, compared to only 2% in 1999. Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared to only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>Institutional alliances in the US stock market are deepening, and institutional holdings have long been overweight.</b>If we take US stocks with institutional holdings exceeding 80% as the top holdings of institutions, over the past 20 years, institutional holdings of top US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand, reaching 5 points in 1999 and 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>II. US Stocks: What are institutional investors clustering together for?</b></p><p><b>1. Collective consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in the US stock market are flocking to consumer and growth stocks.</b>The top 100 holdings of institutional investors in the US stock market are concentrated in consumer and growth stocks. The proportion of institutional holdings in the consumer and growth style and the market value of their holdings are consistently higher than 50%, making them the main focus of institutional investors. The group-buying style has not remained stable over the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions temporarily increased their holdings in financial, real estate and cyclical sectors. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated to consumer and technology sectors, and the number and market capitalization of individual stocks have increased significantly. Currently, consumer and growth sectors account for more than 80% of the market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking at specific industries, before 2007, institutions clustered together to loosen their focus on energy and industry, while since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 holdings of institutions, the energy, industrial, and communications sectors saw the largest increases in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96%, and 0.78% respectively. Since 2007, the information technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen significant increases in holdings, with increases of 13.90%, 11.19%, and 1.22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Collaborating with leading companies</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leading stocks by US stock institutions has never stopped over the past 20 years and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, in terms of the number of shareholding institutions, the leading companies have a far larger number of shareholding institutions.</b>The top 20% of US stocks by market capitalization represent leading companies, while the bottom 80% represent non-leading companies. The median number of institutions holding leading companies has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding non-leading companies is still only around 100.</p><p><b>Further grouping by circulating market capitalization, leading companies have a higher number of institutional shareholdings.</b>Grouping US stocks by market capitalization, the gap in the number of institutional holders with market capitalizations greater than $300 billion, $200-300 billion, $100-200 billion, and $50-100 billion has been widening over the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, the more concentrated the institutional holders are, further strengthening institutions' stock selection preference of \"large is beautiful\".</p><p><b>Secondly, in terms of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of institutional holdings in leading companies is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median institutional shareholding ratio of leading companies has remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, judging from the overlap between institutional holdings and leading US stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 stocks held by institutions by market capitalization in the entire market has basically remained above 90%, while around 2000 this proportion was only 50% to 60%. This indicates that the vast majority of leading companies in the US stock market have been brought under the control of institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutional investors has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding ratio reached 74.4%, including Netflix, Facebook, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional holdings accounted for the largest proportions, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG was also among the top 20 holdings of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. High ROE through collaboration</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of US stock institutions based on their top holdings,</b><b>Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE of stocks heavily held by institutional investors in the US stock market is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 stocks reaching 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 stocks is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE of all US stocks. Institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of their heavily held stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high-ROE stocks in the US stock market enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE ratio of the top 50 institutional holdings in the US stock market is 30.0, significantly higher than the 18.9 ratio of all US stocks. Moreover, as the holdings decrease, the PE valuation also declines in an orderly manner. The same applies to the price-to-book (PB) perspective. The median PB of the top 50 holdings is 7.2, higher than the 2.40 for all US stocks.</p><p><b>III. US Stocks: What Causes Grouping?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been a key driver of institutions' commitment over the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the U.S. consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries have been in a continuous upward cycle. Over the past 20 years, apart from the impact of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and consumer staples have generally been in the range of 20% to 30%, demonstrating stronger and more stable growth and profitability. Meanwhile, the ROE centers of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and utilities have continued to decline and fluctuated significantly. Driven by rising fundamentals and prosperity, leading technology and consumer stocks have become an inevitable choice for institutions to align themselves with each other. Moreover, as differentiation intensifies, institutions' alignment with technology and consumer stocks will become more concentrated and close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term focus on leading US stocks is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium to long term, the institutionalization of US stocks has led to a shift in the pricing system from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior in leading and non-leading companies also shows a relatively obvious ROE-driven characteristic. The divergence in the proportion of institutional shareholdings in leading and non-leading US stocks is relatively consistent with the change in the ROE divergence between the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b>In their pursuit of profit certainty, institutional investors have made increasing their allocation to leading US stocks with higher ROE levels the most \"correct\" choice. Comparing the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 stocks held by US institutions, the characteristic is that the more heavily invested the stock, the higher the ROE level. This has remained relatively orderly over the past 20 years and is significantly higher than the median level of the entire market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutions' pursuit of certainty, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States over the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutions clinging to leading companies.</b>The size of U.S. ETFs grew from less than $20 billion in 1998 to $5.4 trillion in 2020, with equity ETFs accounting for nearly 80% of the total. With the three giants of US ETFs - Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Taking State Street as an example, the total shareholding of the three companies in the S&P 500 increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate on high-quality leading companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is common for institutional investors to band together in the US stock market, and institutional influence is constantly increasing, resulting in a long-term overweighting of stocks heavily held by institutions.</b></p><p><b>2. Institutional investors in the US stock market may temporarily shift towards cyclical industries, but in the long run, they will always focus on consumption and growth, especially since 2007, adhering to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' pursuit of leading US stocks has never stopped over the past two decades, and has intensified in the past decade. The number of institutions holding shares in leading stocks and the proportion of shares held are significantly higher than those in non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and their heavily held stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the rally in US stocks. The technology and consumption sectors have consistently outperformed their fundamentals due to their long-term high quality. For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional alliances.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET; third-party data may contain statistical errors. 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situations; 3. The comparative research methods have limitations, and the conclusions may be somewhat biased.</p>","source":"lsy1601879145223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国盛策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extremely divergent pattern, with institutional grouping intensifying and the strong rise of \"grouped stocks\" triggering a rise in market sentiment. Recently, \"group-buying stocks\" have experienced a pullback, and investors' concerns about \"leading companies being too tightly grouped together\" and \"the group collapsing\" are intensifying. So how long can the phenomenon of banding together last? Will the alliance collapse? How will the future of banding together unfold? The experience of the US stock market over the past 20 years has provided us with lessons to learn.</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>I. US Stocks: Institutional Clusters Are the Norm</b></p><p><b>It is common for institutional groups to form alliances in the US stock market, and their influence is constantly increasing.</b>As institutional investors have grown and expanded in the US stock market, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly over the past 20 years. Currently, the market value of institutional shareholdings accounts for as much as 70% of the total market value, making them the dominant force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of stocks had institutional ownership of more than 80%, compared to only 2% in 1999. Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared to only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>Institutional alliances in the US stock market are deepening, and institutional holdings have long been overweight.</b>If we take US stocks with institutional holdings exceeding 80% as the top holdings of institutions, over the past 20 years, institutional holdings of top US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand, reaching 5 points in 1999 and 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>II. US Stocks: What are institutional investors clustering together for?</b></p><p><b>1. Collective consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in the US stock market are flocking to consumer and growth stocks.</b>The top 100 holdings of institutional investors in the US stock market are concentrated in consumer and growth stocks. The proportion of institutional holdings in the consumer and growth style and the market value of their holdings are consistently higher than 50%, making them the main focus of institutional investors. The group-buying style has not remained stable over the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions temporarily increased their holdings in financial, real estate and cyclical sectors. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated to consumer and technology sectors, and the number and market capitalization of individual stocks have increased significantly. Currently, consumer and growth sectors account for more than 80% of the market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking at specific industries, before 2007, institutions clustered together to loosen their focus on energy and industry, while since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 holdings of institutions, the energy, industrial, and communications sectors saw the largest increases in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96%, and 0.78% respectively. Since 2007, the information technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen significant increases in holdings, with increases of 13.90%, 11.19%, and 1.22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Collaborating with leading companies</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leading stocks by US stock institutions has never stopped over the past 20 years and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, in terms of the number of shareholding institutions, the leading companies have a far larger number of shareholding institutions.</b>The top 20% of US stocks by market capitalization represent leading companies, while the bottom 80% represent non-leading companies. The median number of institutions holding leading companies has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding non-leading companies is still only around 100.</p><p><b>Further grouping by circulating market capitalization, leading companies have a higher number of institutional shareholdings.</b>Grouping US stocks by market capitalization, the gap in the number of institutional holders with market capitalizations greater than $300 billion, $200-300 billion, $100-200 billion, and $50-100 billion has been widening over the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, the more concentrated the institutional holders are, further strengthening institutions' stock selection preference of \"large is beautiful\".</p><p><b>Secondly, in terms of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of institutional holdings in leading companies is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median institutional shareholding ratio of leading companies has remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, judging from the overlap between institutional holdings and leading US stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 stocks held by institutions by market capitalization in the entire market has basically remained above 90%, while around 2000 this proportion was only 50% to 60%. This indicates that the vast majority of leading companies in the US stock market have been brought under the control of institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutional investors has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding ratio reached 74.4%, including Netflix, Facebook, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional holdings accounted for the largest proportions, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG was also among the top 20 holdings of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. High ROE through collaboration</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of US stock institutions based on their top holdings,</b><b>Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE of stocks heavily held by institutional investors in the US stock market is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 stocks reaching 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 stocks is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE of all US stocks. Institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of their heavily held stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high-ROE stocks in the US stock market enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE ratio of the top 50 institutional holdings in the US stock market is 30.0, significantly higher than the 18.9 ratio of all US stocks. Moreover, as the holdings decrease, the PE valuation also declines in an orderly manner. The same applies to the price-to-book (PB) perspective. The median PB of the top 50 holdings is 7.2, higher than the 2.40 for all US stocks.</p><p><b>III. US Stocks: What Causes Grouping?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been a key driver of institutions' commitment over the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the U.S. consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries have been in a continuous upward cycle. Over the past 20 years, apart from the impact of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and consumer staples have generally been in the range of 20% to 30%, demonstrating stronger and more stable growth and profitability. Meanwhile, the ROE centers of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and utilities have continued to decline and fluctuated significantly. Driven by rising fundamentals and prosperity, leading technology and consumer stocks have become an inevitable choice for institutions to align themselves with each other. Moreover, as differentiation intensifies, institutions' alignment with technology and consumer stocks will become more concentrated and close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term focus on leading US stocks is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium to long term, the institutionalization of US stocks has led to a shift in the pricing system from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior in leading and non-leading companies also shows a relatively obvious ROE-driven characteristic. The divergence in the proportion of institutional shareholdings in leading and non-leading US stocks is relatively consistent with the change in the ROE divergence between the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b>In their pursuit of profit certainty, institutional investors have made increasing their allocation to leading US stocks with higher ROE levels the most \"correct\" choice. Comparing the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 stocks held by US institutions, the characteristic is that the more heavily invested the stock, the higher the ROE level. This has remained relatively orderly over the past 20 years and is significantly higher than the median level of the entire market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutions' pursuit of certainty, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States over the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutions clinging to leading companies.</b>The size of U.S. ETFs grew from less than $20 billion in 1998 to $5.4 trillion in 2020, with equity ETFs accounting for nearly 80% of the total. With the three giants of US ETFs - Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Taking State Street as an example, the total shareholding of the three companies in the S&P 500 increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate on high-quality leading companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is common for institutional investors to band together in the US stock market, and institutional influence is constantly increasing, resulting in a long-term overweighting of stocks heavily held by institutions.</b></p><p><b>2. Institutional investors in the US stock market may temporarily shift towards cyclical industries, but in the long run, they will always focus on consumption and growth, especially since 2007, adhering to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' pursuit of leading US stocks has never stopped over the past two decades, and has intensified in the past decade. The number of institutions holding shares in leading stocks and the proportion of shares held are significantly higher than those in non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and their heavily held stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the rally in US stocks. The technology and consumption sectors have consistently outperformed their fundamentals due to their long-term high quality. For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional alliances.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET; third-party data may contain statistical errors. 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situations; 3. The comparative research methods have limitations, and the conclusions may be somewhat biased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag\">国盛策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152855899","content_text":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象能持续多久？抱团是否会就此瓦解？抱团未来又将如何演绎？过去20年美股的经验给我们提供了借鉴。\n报告正文\n一、美股：机构抱团是常态\n美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强。随着美股机构发展壮大，机构持股占比在过去20年中大幅增长，当前机构持股市值占全市场流通市值的比重也已高达70%，成为美股市场的主导力量。截至2020年，机构持股比例在80%以上的个股占33%，这一比例在1999年仅为2%；持股比例位于50~80%之间的个股占比25%，这一比例在1999年仅为10%。\n美股机构抱团不断加深，机构重仓股长期超配。若以机构持股占比高于80%的美股作为机构重仓股，在过去20年中，机构对美股重仓股的持仓由不足10%增加至近50%，且超配比例不断扩大，1999年超配5个点、2020年超配达到12个点。\n二、美股：机构抱团什么？\n1、抱团消费与成长\n美股机构投资者抱团消费与成长。美股机构投资者前100大重仓股集中在消费与成长，消费与成长风格的机构重仓股数量占比与持股市值占比始终高于50%，是机构投资者主要的抱团方向。抱团风格在过去二十年中并非稳定不变，2000年至2007年，机构阶段性加仓金融地产和周期，但自2007年至今，机构则重新增配消费与科技，且个股数量与市值占比大幅上升，目前消费与成长的市值占比已超八成。\n\n从具体行业看，2007年前机构抱团向能源与工业松动，而2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。2000年至2007年，机构前100大重仓股中能源、工业、通信等行业增持幅度居前，分别达9.30%、1.96%和0.78%；而自2007年以来，信息技术、可选消费与医药行业重获大幅增持，增持比例分别达13.90%、11.19%和1.22%。\n\n2、抱团龙头\n美股机构对龙头的追逐在过去20年中从未止步，2009年以来愈演愈烈。\n一是从持股机构数量来看，龙头的持股机构数量遥遥领先。以流通市值前20%的美股代表龙头，流通市值后80%代表非龙头，持有龙头的机构数量中位数由20年前的230家增长至700余家，而持有非龙头的机构数量中位数水平目前仍仅为100家左右。\n进一步按流通市值分组，龙头的机构持股数量占优。将美股按流通市值分组，流通市值大于3000亿美元、2000-3000亿美元、1000-2000亿美元与500-1000亿美元之间的持股机构数量差距在过去10年中不断扩大，市值越大，持股机构越集中，机构“以大为美”的选股偏好进一步强化。\n二是从机构持股占比来看，龙头的机构占比也明显更高。自2009年以来龙头的机构持股占比的中位数基本维持在80%左右的高位，而非龙头机构占比维持在50%上下。\n三是从机构重仓股与美股龙头重合度来看，重合度不断提升意味着机构持续向龙头集中。机构持股市值前50、前100、前300与前500对全市场流通市值前50、前100、前300与前500的覆盖度近年来已基本维持在90%以上，而2000年前后这个比例仅有50%~60%，这说明美股绝大多数龙头已经纳入机构麾下。\n四是从个股角度，以FAAMG为例，机构占比明显提升。截至2020年四季度末，平均机构持股占比达74.4%，其中奈飞、脸书、谷歌的机构持股占比居前，分别达82.92%、81.02%和79.09%，FAAMNG也均位于机构前20大重仓股之中。\n\n3、抱团高ROE\n从重仓股看美股机构的选股偏好，相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE。美股机构重仓股的ROE水平普遍较高，前50大重仓股的ROE高达26.1%，前100、前300、前500的ROE逐渐降低，但仍显著高于全部美股的ROE水平；而机构对于重仓股利润增速的偏好相对较低，利润增速中位数并非有序回落，机构更加注重长期增长的确定性。\n\n相应地，美股高ROE重仓股享有估值溢价。从PE角度。美股机构前50大重仓股的PE中位数为30.0，明显高于全部美股的18.9，且随着持仓仓位的下降，PE估值也有序下降；PB角度亦是如此，前50大重仓股PB中位数为7.2，高于全部美股的2.40。\n三、美股：抱团因何而起？\n科技与消费长期优质的基本面，是近十年机构坚守的重要驱动。90年代以来，美国消费、医药、科技行业持续处于景气上行周期。在过去20年中，除受互联网泡沫破裂的影响外，信息技术、医疗保健、必选消费等行业的ROE水平基本处于20%至30%区间，展现出更强且更稳定的成长性与盈利能力，而金融、能源、公用事业等周期类行业的ROE中枢持续下移，且波动较大。在基本面与景气度上行的驱动下，科技和消费龙头也就成为了机构抱团的必然选择，且随着分化的加剧，机构对于科技和消费的抱团将更加集中和紧密。\n\n机构投资者长期抱团美股龙头实际上也是对盈利确定性和稳定性的持续追求。中长期来看，美股机构化带来定价体系由估值主导向盈利主导变迁，机构投资者对龙头与非龙头的持股行为也呈现出较为明显的ROE驱动的特征，美股龙头与非龙头机构持股占比的分化水平与二者ROE分化水平之间的变动较为一致。\n\n近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。机构投资者在追求盈利确定性的过程中，增配ROE水平更高的美股龙头成为最“正确”的选择，对比美股机构前50、前100、前300重仓股的ROE中位数，呈现出越重仓的个股，ROE水平越高的特点，并在过去20年中基本维持有序，且大幅高于全市场中位数水平。\n\n除机构对确定性的追求外，近十年美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团龙头的效果。美国ETF规模由1998年的不足200亿增长至2020年的5.4万亿美元，股票型ETF的规模达4.2万亿美元，占比近八成。以美国ETF三巨头——先锋、贝莱德、道富为例，三家在标普500成分股的总持股占比由1999年的5.9%上升至2020年的19.1%，机构资金持续向优质龙头集中。\n\n四、总结\n1、美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强，对机构重仓股长期维持超配。\n2、美股机构抱团也会阶段性向周期行业松动，但长期来看始终抱团消费与成长，尤其是2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。\n3、机构对美股龙头的抱团追逐在过去二十年中从未止步，且近十年愈演愈烈，龙头的持股机构数量与持股占比均显著高于非龙头。\n4、相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE，且重仓股享受估值溢价。\n5、对盈利确定性和稳定性的追求是美股抱团的根本驱动。科技和消费长期优质的基本面表现长期占优；近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。\n6、除此之外，美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团。\n风险提示\n1、机构持股数据来自FACTSET，第三方数据可能存在统计误差；2、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；3、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":348868975,"gmtCreate":1617916901697,"gmtModify":1704704700976,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","text":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. Originally, it was a * * company, and speculation was useless.","html":"If you don't pull it tonight, you will cut the meat and stop the loss. If you buy a mining machine, you will be sued by investors to defend your rights. 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Corporation(ADMP)$fda？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365481144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366989563,"gmtCreate":1614383909352,"gmtModify":1704771380398,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHIP\">$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$</a>?","text":"$Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp(SHIP)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/366989563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384259858,"gmtCreate":1613658158374,"gmtModify":1704883314612,"author":{"id":"3574393622022945","authorId":"3574393622022945","name":"Lawrance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47d5e2dc58dd107870f3fd8e4e952d40","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574393622022945","idStr":"3574393622022945"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/384259858","repostId":"1152855899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152855899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613657987,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152855899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-18 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152855899","media":"国盛策略","summary":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象","content":"<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extremely divergent pattern, with institutional grouping intensifying and the strong rise of \"grouped stocks\" triggering a rise in market sentiment. Recently, \"group-buying stocks\" have experienced a pullback, and investors' concerns about \"leading companies being too tightly grouped together\" and \"the group collapsing\" are intensifying. So how long can the phenomenon of banding together last? Will the alliance collapse? How will the future of banding together unfold? The experience of the US stock market over the past 20 years has provided us with lessons to learn.</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>I. US Stocks: Institutional Clusters Are the Norm</b></p><p><b>It is common for institutional groups to form alliances in the US stock market, and their influence is constantly increasing.</b>As institutional investors have grown and expanded in the US stock market, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly over the past 20 years. Currently, the market value of institutional shareholdings accounts for as much as 70% of the total market value, making them the dominant force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of stocks had institutional ownership of more than 80%, compared to only 2% in 1999. Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared to only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>Institutional alliances in the US stock market are deepening, and institutional holdings have long been overweight.</b>If we take US stocks with institutional holdings exceeding 80% as the top holdings of institutions, over the past 20 years, institutional holdings of top US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand, reaching 5 points in 1999 and 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>II. US Stocks: What are institutional investors clustering together for?</b></p><p><b>1. Collective consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in the US stock market are flocking to consumer and growth stocks.</b>The top 100 holdings of institutional investors in the US stock market are concentrated in consumer and growth stocks. The proportion of institutional holdings in the consumer and growth style and the market value of their holdings are consistently higher than 50%, making them the main focus of institutional investors. The group-buying style has not remained stable over the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions temporarily increased their holdings in financial, real estate and cyclical sectors. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated to consumer and technology sectors, and the number and market capitalization of individual stocks have increased significantly. Currently, consumer and growth sectors account for more than 80% of the market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking at specific industries, before 2007, institutions clustered together to loosen their focus on energy and industry, while since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 holdings of institutions, the energy, industrial, and communications sectors saw the largest increases in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96%, and 0.78% respectively. Since 2007, the information technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen significant increases in holdings, with increases of 13.90%, 11.19%, and 1.22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Collaborating with leading companies</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leading stocks by US stock institutions has never stopped over the past 20 years and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, in terms of the number of shareholding institutions, the leading companies have a far larger number of shareholding institutions.</b>The top 20% of US stocks by market capitalization represent leading companies, while the bottom 80% represent non-leading companies. The median number of institutions holding leading companies has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding non-leading companies is still only around 100.</p><p><b>Further grouping by circulating market capitalization, leading companies have a higher number of institutional shareholdings.</b>Grouping US stocks by market capitalization, the gap in the number of institutional holders with market capitalizations greater than $300 billion, $200-300 billion, $100-200 billion, and $50-100 billion has been widening over the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, the more concentrated the institutional holders are, further strengthening institutions' stock selection preference of \"large is beautiful\".</p><p><b>Secondly, in terms of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of institutional holdings in leading companies is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median institutional shareholding ratio of leading companies has remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, judging from the overlap between institutional holdings and leading US stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 stocks held by institutions by market capitalization in the entire market has basically remained above 90%, while around 2000 this proportion was only 50% to 60%. This indicates that the vast majority of leading companies in the US stock market have been brought under the control of institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutional investors has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding ratio reached 74.4%, including Netflix, Facebook, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional holdings accounted for the largest proportions, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG was also among the top 20 holdings of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. High ROE through collaboration</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of US stock institutions based on their top holdings,</b><b>Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE of stocks heavily held by institutional investors in the US stock market is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 stocks reaching 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 stocks is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE of all US stocks. Institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of their heavily held stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high-ROE stocks in the US stock market enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE ratio of the top 50 institutional holdings in the US stock market is 30.0, significantly higher than the 18.9 ratio of all US stocks. Moreover, as the holdings decrease, the PE valuation also declines in an orderly manner. The same applies to the price-to-book (PB) perspective. The median PB of the top 50 holdings is 7.2, higher than the 2.40 for all US stocks.</p><p><b>III. US Stocks: What Causes Grouping?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been a key driver of institutions' commitment over the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the U.S. consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries have been in a continuous upward cycle. Over the past 20 years, apart from the impact of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and consumer staples have generally been in the range of 20% to 30%, demonstrating stronger and more stable growth and profitability. Meanwhile, the ROE centers of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and utilities have continued to decline and fluctuated significantly. Driven by rising fundamentals and prosperity, leading technology and consumer stocks have become an inevitable choice for institutions to align themselves with each other. Moreover, as differentiation intensifies, institutions' alignment with technology and consumer stocks will become more concentrated and close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term focus on leading US stocks is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium to long term, the institutionalization of US stocks has led to a shift in the pricing system from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior in leading and non-leading companies also shows a relatively obvious ROE-driven characteristic. The divergence in the proportion of institutional shareholdings in leading and non-leading US stocks is relatively consistent with the change in the ROE divergence between the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b>In their pursuit of profit certainty, institutional investors have made increasing their allocation to leading US stocks with higher ROE levels the most \"correct\" choice. Comparing the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 stocks held by US institutions, the characteristic is that the more heavily invested the stock, the higher the ROE level. This has remained relatively orderly over the past 20 years and is significantly higher than the median level of the entire market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutions' pursuit of certainty, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States over the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutions clinging to leading companies.</b>The size of U.S. ETFs grew from less than $20 billion in 1998 to $5.4 trillion in 2020, with equity ETFs accounting for nearly 80% of the total. With the three giants of US ETFs - Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Taking State Street as an example, the total shareholding of the three companies in the S&P 500 increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate on high-quality leading companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is common for institutional investors to band together in the US stock market, and institutional influence is constantly increasing, resulting in a long-term overweighting of stocks heavily held by institutions.</b></p><p><b>2. Institutional investors in the US stock market may temporarily shift towards cyclical industries, but in the long run, they will always focus on consumption and growth, especially since 2007, adhering to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' pursuit of leading US stocks has never stopped over the past two decades, and has intensified in the past decade. The number of institutions holding shares in leading stocks and the proportion of shares held are significantly higher than those in non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and their heavily held stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the rally in US stocks. The technology and consumption sectors have consistently outperformed their fundamentals due to their long-term high quality. For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional alliances.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET; third-party data may contain statistical errors. 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situations; 3. The comparative research methods have limitations, and the conclusions may be somewhat biased.</p>","source":"lsy1601879145223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Stocks: A Twenty-Year History of Grouping Together\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国盛策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-18 22:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Foreword:</b>Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has shown an extremely divergent pattern, with institutional grouping intensifying and the strong rise of \"grouped stocks\" triggering a rise in market sentiment. Recently, \"group-buying stocks\" have experienced a pullback, and investors' concerns about \"leading companies being too tightly grouped together\" and \"the group collapsing\" are intensifying. So how long can the phenomenon of banding together last? Will the alliance collapse? How will the future of banding together unfold? The experience of the US stock market over the past 20 years has provided us with lessons to learn.</p><p><b>Main text of the report</b></p><p><b>I. US Stocks: Institutional Clusters Are the Norm</b></p><p><b>It is common for institutional groups to form alliances in the US stock market, and their influence is constantly increasing.</b>As institutional investors have grown and expanded in the US stock market, the proportion of institutional shareholdings has increased significantly over the past 20 years. Currently, the market value of institutional shareholdings accounts for as much as 70% of the total market value, making them the dominant force in the US stock market. As of 2020, 33% of stocks had institutional ownership of more than 80%, compared to only 2% in 1999. Stocks with a shareholding ratio between 50 and 80% account for 25%, compared to only 10% in 1999.</p><p><b>Institutional alliances in the US stock market are deepening, and institutional holdings have long been overweight.</b>If we take US stocks with institutional holdings exceeding 80% as the top holdings of institutions, over the past 20 years, institutional holdings of top US stocks have increased from less than 10% to nearly 50%, and the overweight ratio has continued to expand, reaching 5 points in 1999 and 12 points in 2020.</p><p><b>II. US Stocks: What are institutional investors clustering together for?</b></p><p><b>1. Collective consumption and growth</b></p><p><b>Institutional investors in the US stock market are flocking to consumer and growth stocks.</b>The top 100 holdings of institutional investors in the US stock market are concentrated in consumer and growth stocks. The proportion of institutional holdings in the consumer and growth style and the market value of their holdings are consistently higher than 50%, making them the main focus of institutional investors. The group-buying style has not remained stable over the past two decades. From 2000 to 2007, institutions temporarily increased their holdings in financial, real estate and cyclical sectors. However, since 2007, institutions have re-allocated to consumer and technology sectors, and the number and market capitalization of individual stocks have increased significantly. Currently, consumer and growth sectors account for more than 80% of the market capitalization.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a40c4ae37bc0cbfae5eb61fb2c9e598\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88dd627c1b879c24bf11ed44da8031a8\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking at specific industries, before 2007, institutions clustered together to loosen their focus on energy and industry, while since 2007, they have adhered to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b>From 2000 to 2007, among the top 100 holdings of institutions, the energy, industrial, and communications sectors saw the largest increases in holdings, reaching 9.30%, 1.96%, and 0.78% respectively. Since 2007, the information technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceutical sectors have seen significant increases in holdings, with increases of 13.90%, 11.19%, and 1.22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04030f35e375b711e021c4d037e798f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6dbfda9b73bba7360778a554ce60c7\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Collaborating with leading companies</b></p><p><b>The pursuit of leading stocks by US stock institutions has never stopped over the past 20 years and has intensified since 2009.</b></p><p><b>First, in terms of the number of shareholding institutions, the leading companies have a far larger number of shareholding institutions.</b>The top 20% of US stocks by market capitalization represent leading companies, while the bottom 80% represent non-leading companies. The median number of institutions holding leading companies has increased from 230 20 years ago to more than 700, while the median number of institutions holding non-leading companies is still only around 100.</p><p><b>Further grouping by circulating market capitalization, leading companies have a higher number of institutional shareholdings.</b>Grouping US stocks by market capitalization, the gap in the number of institutional holders with market capitalizations greater than $300 billion, $200-300 billion, $100-200 billion, and $50-100 billion has been widening over the past 10 years. The larger the market capitalization, the more concentrated the institutional holders are, further strengthening institutions' stock selection preference of \"large is beautiful\".</p><p><b>Secondly, in terms of the proportion of institutional shareholding, the proportion of institutional holdings in leading companies is also significantly higher.</b>Since 2009, the median institutional shareholding ratio of leading companies has remained at a high level of around 80%, while the proportion of non-leading institutions has remained around 50%.</p><p><b>Third, judging from the overlap between institutional holdings and leading US stocks, the increasing overlap means that institutions continue to concentrate on leading stocks.</b>In recent years, the coverage of the top 50, top 100, top 300 and top 500 stocks held by institutions by market capitalization in the entire market has basically remained above 90%, while around 2000 this proportion was only 50% to 60%. This indicates that the vast majority of leading companies in the US stock market have been brought under the control of institutions.</p><p><b>Fourth, from the perspective of individual stocks, taking FAAMG as an example, the proportion of institutional investors has increased significantly.</b>As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the average institutional shareholding ratio reached 74.4%, including Netflix, Facebook, and others.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Institutional holdings accounted for the largest proportions, reaching 82.92%, 81.02% and 79.09% respectively, and FAAMNG was also among the top 20 holdings of institutions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644c240f0ddaf3407cbad6db91899325\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. High ROE through collaboration</b></p><p><b>Looking at the stock selection preferences of US stock institutions based on their top holdings,</b><b>Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE.</b>The ROE of stocks heavily held by institutional investors in the US stock market is generally high, with the ROE of the top 50 stocks reaching 26.1%. The ROE of the top 100, top 300, and top 500 stocks is gradually decreasing, but it is still significantly higher than the ROE of all US stocks. Institutions have a relatively low preference for the profit growth rate of their heavily held stocks, and the median profit growth rate is not declining in an orderly manner. Institutions pay more attention to the certainty of long-term growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2673469a93058fec107780f19a7a1e8\" tg-width=\"484\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60aed33e9d8933510a5638729d38f13a\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Correspondingly, high-ROE stocks in the US stock market enjoy a valuation premium.</b>From a PE perspective. The median PE ratio of the top 50 institutional holdings in the US stock market is 30.0, significantly higher than the 18.9 ratio of all US stocks. Moreover, as the holdings decrease, the PE valuation also declines in an orderly manner. The same applies to the price-to-book (PB) perspective. The median PB of the top 50 holdings is 7.2, higher than the 2.40 for all US stocks.</p><p><b>III. US Stocks: What Causes Grouping?</b></p><p><b>The long-term high-quality fundamentals of technology and consumption have been a key driver of institutions' commitment over the past decade.</b>Since the 1990s, the U.S. consumer, pharmaceutical, and technology industries have been in a continuous upward cycle. Over the past 20 years, apart from the impact of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the ROE levels of industries such as information technology, healthcare, and consumer staples have generally been in the range of 20% to 30%, demonstrating stronger and more stable growth and profitability. Meanwhile, the ROE centers of cyclical industries such as finance, energy, and utilities have continued to decline and fluctuated significantly. Driven by rising fundamentals and prosperity, leading technology and consumer stocks have become an inevitable choice for institutions to align themselves with each other. Moreover, as differentiation intensifies, institutions' alignment with technology and consumer stocks will become more concentrated and close.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85979547ada3a9b2aee3eace34233409\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac773e12490572c3c39bc510e807cb28\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Institutional Investors</b><b>The long-term focus on leading US stocks is actually a continuous pursuit of profit certainty and stability.</b>In the medium to long term, the institutionalization of US stocks has led to a shift in the pricing system from valuation-driven to earnings-driven. Institutional investors' shareholding behavior in leading and non-leading companies also shows a relatively obvious ROE-driven characteristic. The divergence in the proportion of institutional shareholdings in leading and non-leading US stocks is relatively consistent with the change in the ROE divergence between the two.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68be567c1f270b1c5d0ca0705ecc90d8\" tg-width=\"492\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bb1200ac7032f848476cda4d29a61ad\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b>In their pursuit of profit certainty, institutional investors have made increasing their allocation to leading US stocks with higher ROE levels the most \"correct\" choice. Comparing the median ROE of the top 50, top 100, and top 300 stocks held by US institutions, the characteristic is that the more heavily invested the stock, the higher the ROE level. This has remained relatively orderly over the past 20 years and is significantly higher than the median level of the entire market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f90bf37b1c2ce807302b6fa4b89380\" tg-width=\"495\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbd53f34cd1f62b885cb0c826dde25c\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In addition to institutions' pursuit of certainty, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States over the past decade has further strengthened the effect of institutions clinging to leading companies.</b>The size of U.S. ETFs grew from less than $20 billion in 1998 to $5.4 trillion in 2020, with equity ETFs accounting for nearly 80% of the total. With the three giants of US ETFs - Vanguard,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>Taking State Street as an example, the total shareholding of the three companies in the S&P 500 increased from 5.9% in 1999 to 19.1% in 2020, and institutional funds continued to concentrate on high-quality leading companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f590abe40e00606c548a0300cf5f66b\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ab33b3aa4c354e2a8fa099180c8922e\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>IV. Summary</b></p><p><b>1. It is common for institutional investors to band together in the US stock market, and institutional influence is constantly increasing, resulting in a long-term overweighting of stocks heavily held by institutions.</b></p><p><b>2. Institutional investors in the US stock market may temporarily shift towards cyclical industries, but in the long run, they will always focus on consumption and growth, especially since 2007, adhering to information technology and discretionary consumption.</b></p><p><b>3. Institutions' pursuit of leading US stocks has never stopped over the past two decades, and has intensified in the past decade. The number of institutions holding shares in leading stocks and the proportion of shares held are significantly higher than those in non-leading stocks.</b></p><p><b>4. Compared to profit growth, US stock institutions pay more attention to ROE, and their heavily held stocks enjoy a valuation premium.</b></p><p><b>5. The pursuit of profit certainty and stability is the fundamental driving force behind the rally in US stocks. The technology and consumption sectors have consistently outperformed their fundamentals due to their long-term high quality. For nearly 40 years, leading US stocks have maintained higher ROEs, providing more stable returns over the long term, making them the preferred choice for institutional investors.</b></p><p><b>6. In addition, the rapid development of passive funds in the United States has further strengthened institutional alliances.</b></p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p>1. Institutional shareholding data comes from FACTSET; third-party data may contain statistical errors. 2. There may be errors between historical data statistics and actual situations; 3. The comparative research methods have limitations, and the conclusions may be somewhat biased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag\">国盛策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ae5bBVZXVqZInDfKPsT9ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152855899","content_text":"前言：年初以来，A股市场呈现极致的大分化格局，机构抱团愈演愈烈，“抱团股”强势上涨，引发了市场畏高情绪升温。近期“抱团股”出现回调，投资者对于“龙头抱团过紧”，“抱团瓦解”的担忧开始加剧。那么抱团现象能持续多久？抱团是否会就此瓦解？抱团未来又将如何演绎？过去20年美股的经验给我们提供了借鉴。\n报告正文\n一、美股：机构抱团是常态\n美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强。随着美股机构发展壮大，机构持股占比在过去20年中大幅增长，当前机构持股市值占全市场流通市值的比重也已高达70%，成为美股市场的主导力量。截至2020年，机构持股比例在80%以上的个股占33%，这一比例在1999年仅为2%；持股比例位于50~80%之间的个股占比25%，这一比例在1999年仅为10%。\n美股机构抱团不断加深，机构重仓股长期超配。若以机构持股占比高于80%的美股作为机构重仓股，在过去20年中，机构对美股重仓股的持仓由不足10%增加至近50%，且超配比例不断扩大，1999年超配5个点、2020年超配达到12个点。\n二、美股：机构抱团什么？\n1、抱团消费与成长\n美股机构投资者抱团消费与成长。美股机构投资者前100大重仓股集中在消费与成长，消费与成长风格的机构重仓股数量占比与持股市值占比始终高于50%，是机构投资者主要的抱团方向。抱团风格在过去二十年中并非稳定不变，2000年至2007年，机构阶段性加仓金融地产和周期，但自2007年至今，机构则重新增配消费与科技，且个股数量与市值占比大幅上升，目前消费与成长的市值占比已超八成。\n\n从具体行业看，2007年前机构抱团向能源与工业松动，而2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。2000年至2007年，机构前100大重仓股中能源、工业、通信等行业增持幅度居前，分别达9.30%、1.96%和0.78%；而自2007年以来，信息技术、可选消费与医药行业重获大幅增持，增持比例分别达13.90%、11.19%和1.22%。\n\n2、抱团龙头\n美股机构对龙头的追逐在过去20年中从未止步，2009年以来愈演愈烈。\n一是从持股机构数量来看，龙头的持股机构数量遥遥领先。以流通市值前20%的美股代表龙头，流通市值后80%代表非龙头，持有龙头的机构数量中位数由20年前的230家增长至700余家，而持有非龙头的机构数量中位数水平目前仍仅为100家左右。\n进一步按流通市值分组，龙头的机构持股数量占优。将美股按流通市值分组，流通市值大于3000亿美元、2000-3000亿美元、1000-2000亿美元与500-1000亿美元之间的持股机构数量差距在过去10年中不断扩大，市值越大，持股机构越集中，机构“以大为美”的选股偏好进一步强化。\n二是从机构持股占比来看，龙头的机构占比也明显更高。自2009年以来龙头的机构持股占比的中位数基本维持在80%左右的高位，而非龙头机构占比维持在50%上下。\n三是从机构重仓股与美股龙头重合度来看，重合度不断提升意味着机构持续向龙头集中。机构持股市值前50、前100、前300与前500对全市场流通市值前50、前100、前300与前500的覆盖度近年来已基本维持在90%以上，而2000年前后这个比例仅有50%~60%，这说明美股绝大多数龙头已经纳入机构麾下。\n四是从个股角度，以FAAMG为例，机构占比明显提升。截至2020年四季度末，平均机构持股占比达74.4%，其中奈飞、脸书、谷歌的机构持股占比居前，分别达82.92%、81.02%和79.09%，FAAMNG也均位于机构前20大重仓股之中。\n\n3、抱团高ROE\n从重仓股看美股机构的选股偏好，相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE。美股机构重仓股的ROE水平普遍较高，前50大重仓股的ROE高达26.1%，前100、前300、前500的ROE逐渐降低，但仍显著高于全部美股的ROE水平；而机构对于重仓股利润增速的偏好相对较低，利润增速中位数并非有序回落，机构更加注重长期增长的确定性。\n\n相应地，美股高ROE重仓股享有估值溢价。从PE角度。美股机构前50大重仓股的PE中位数为30.0，明显高于全部美股的18.9，且随着持仓仓位的下降，PE估值也有序下降；PB角度亦是如此，前50大重仓股PB中位数为7.2，高于全部美股的2.40。\n三、美股：抱团因何而起？\n科技与消费长期优质的基本面，是近十年机构坚守的重要驱动。90年代以来，美国消费、医药、科技行业持续处于景气上行周期。在过去20年中，除受互联网泡沫破裂的影响外，信息技术、医疗保健、必选消费等行业的ROE水平基本处于20%至30%区间，展现出更强且更稳定的成长性与盈利能力，而金融、能源、公用事业等周期类行业的ROE中枢持续下移，且波动较大。在基本面与景气度上行的驱动下，科技和消费龙头也就成为了机构抱团的必然选择，且随着分化的加剧，机构对于科技和消费的抱团将更加集中和紧密。\n\n机构投资者长期抱团美股龙头实际上也是对盈利确定性和稳定性的持续追求。中长期来看，美股机构化带来定价体系由估值主导向盈利主导变迁，机构投资者对龙头与非龙头的持股行为也呈现出较为明显的ROE驱动的特征，美股龙头与非龙头机构持股占比的分化水平与二者ROE分化水平之间的变动较为一致。\n\n近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。机构投资者在追求盈利确定性的过程中，增配ROE水平更高的美股龙头成为最“正确”的选择，对比美股机构前50、前100、前300重仓股的ROE中位数，呈现出越重仓的个股，ROE水平越高的特点，并在过去20年中基本维持有序，且大幅高于全市场中位数水平。\n\n除机构对确定性的追求外，近十年美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团龙头的效果。美国ETF规模由1998年的不足200亿增长至2020年的5.4万亿美元，股票型ETF的规模达4.2万亿美元，占比近八成。以美国ETF三巨头——先锋、贝莱德、道富为例，三家在标普500成分股的总持股占比由1999年的5.9%上升至2020年的19.1%，机构资金持续向优质龙头集中。\n\n四、总结\n1、美股机构抱团是常态，机构话语权不断增强，对机构重仓股长期维持超配。\n2、美股机构抱团也会阶段性向周期行业松动，但长期来看始终抱团消费与成长，尤其是2007年以来坚守信息技术与可选消费。\n3、机构对美股龙头的抱团追逐在过去二十年中从未止步，且近十年愈演愈烈，龙头的持股机构数量与持股占比均显著高于非龙头。\n4、相比于利润增速，美股机构更注重ROE，且重仓股享受估值溢价。\n5、对盈利确定性和稳定性的追求是美股抱团的根本驱动。科技和消费长期优质的基本面表现长期占优；近40年美股龙头保持更高的ROE，提供更加长期的稳定回报，成为机构的抱团首选。\n6、除此之外，美国被动型基金大发展，也进一步强化了机构抱团。\n风险提示\n1、机构持股数据来自FACTSET，第三方数据可能存在统计误差；2、历史数据统计与实际情况可能存在误差；3、对比研究方法存在局限性，结论或存在一定偏差。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}