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Randycje
2022-11-23
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@HONGHAO:Hao Hong | Outlook 2023: A Cyclical Recovery
Randycje
2022-11-21
time to invest
2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now
Randycje
2022-11-21
nice
The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market
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The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","listText":"Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","text":"Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28556b4416f8de586ea6b5b50f2c090","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d0571933c7de02809ab9c39d950891","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d99bb34d19c7960efdb8a6ff164f2a2f","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968396645","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961536745,"gmtCreate":1668993611588,"gmtModify":1676538135652,"author":{"id":"3574676247471081","authorId":"3574676247471081","name":"Randycje","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574676247471081","authorIdStr":"3574676247471081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"time to invest","listText":"time to invest","text":"time to invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961536745","repostId":"2284006934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284006934","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669010357,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284006934?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 13:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284006934","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett just bought these two stocks. Should you?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s every move. That includes perusing its 13-F filings every quarter to see what Buffett's conglomerate bought and sold. The most recent of these was released on Nov. 14.</p><p>As usual, the third-quarter filing had a few surprises in it. Let's take a look at two Buffett stocks referenced in the recent disclosure that would be a good fit for almost any investor. These are a couple of stocks you might want to get greedy with.</p><h2>1. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</h2><p>Berkshire's most surprising purchase in the third quarter was <b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>, the world's largest microchip manufacturer. TSMC, as it is often called, is the company that chip designers like <b>Nvidia</b>, <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>, <b>Apple</b>, and <b>Intel</b> enlist to actually produce the chips they design.</p><p>TSMC is a new holding for Berkshire, which bought more than 60 million shares of it in the third quarter, worth about $4 billion. It's now Berkshire's 10th-biggest holding.</p><p>TSMC has a number of attributes that make it a classic Buffett stock. First, it has a huge economic moat as the largest semiconductor foundry. A wide range of companies and products depend on TSMC, and it dominates the foundry arena with a 53% market share.</p><p>Majority market share in an essential industry sounds perfect for a Berkshire holding, and TSMC also enjoys the kinds of margins that are indicative of a monopoly. In its most recent quarter, the company reported an operating margin of 50.6%, as it spends relatively little on overhead costs to run its foundries.</p><p>TSMC is also growing quickly, with revenue up 48% year over year. And Buffett would almost certainly approve of the price tag, as it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 and offers a 2.3% dividend yield. TSMC likely trades at a discount due to investor concerns about Chinese stocks, but the chipmaker hasn't faced as much backlash as <b>Tencent </b>or <b>Alibaba</b>. Unlike those companies, TSMC makes essential infrastructure, and its base in Taiwan makes it more politically sensitive than Mainland Chinese companies.</p><p>With TSMC's market cap of more than $400 billion, Berkshire can invest billions in it without having to worry about special disclosures that are required when a company owns a significant percentage of another company (generally when the ownership exceeds 10%).</p><h2>2. RH</h2><p><b>RH</b>, the high-end home furnishings company formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is much smaller than TSMC, but Berkshire added to its RH holdings in the third quarter, buying 190,000 additional shares of the home-goods stock. That brings its total to 2.36 million shares, or roughly $230 million.</p><p>Share prices of RH have fallen more than 50% from their peak in September 2021 because demand for home furnishings is slowing as the boom from the pandemic fades and recessionary headwinds set in.</p><p>However, RH is still highly profitable; its adjusted operating margin was 24.7% in its second quarter. That's an unusually wide profit margin for a retailer, which is a sign of its competitive advantages.</p><p>RH employs a unique business model, selling memberships in order to build customer loyalty and encourage repeat purchases. Wall Street was dismissive of the idea when RH first introduced it in 2016, but the stock and the business have soared since then, proving RH CEO Gary Friedman right.</p><p>The company is now looking to expand its brand beyond home furnishings by managing hotels and restaurants and leasing planes and yachts. RH is also launching its own streaming service, which will focus on architecture and design. Those moves show that the company aims to leverage its brand equity in home furnishings into new categories. With its wealthy, loyal customer base, the strategy could pay off, especially the streaming content.</p><p>The retailer is likely to feel the macroeconomic headwinds over the next few quarters. But when the economy strengthens, RH looks primed to soar because its new businesses will have had time to build momentum.</p><p>Currently, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10, which looks like a great value for a disruptive luxury brand with a long track record of outperformance. Buffett and his team have clearly taken notice.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 13:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow Berkshire Hathaway's every move. That includes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RH":"Restoration Hardware Holdings","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284006934","content_text":"Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow Berkshire Hathaway's every move. That includes perusing its 13-F filings every quarter to see what Buffett's conglomerate bought and sold. The most recent of these was released on Nov. 14.As usual, the third-quarter filing had a few surprises in it. Let's take a look at two Buffett stocks referenced in the recent disclosure that would be a good fit for almost any investor. These are a couple of stocks you might want to get greedy with.1. Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingBerkshire's most surprising purchase in the third quarter was Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest microchip manufacturer. TSMC, as it is often called, is the company that chip designers like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, and Intel enlist to actually produce the chips they design.TSMC is a new holding for Berkshire, which bought more than 60 million shares of it in the third quarter, worth about $4 billion. It's now Berkshire's 10th-biggest holding.TSMC has a number of attributes that make it a classic Buffett stock. First, it has a huge economic moat as the largest semiconductor foundry. A wide range of companies and products depend on TSMC, and it dominates the foundry arena with a 53% market share.Majority market share in an essential industry sounds perfect for a Berkshire holding, and TSMC also enjoys the kinds of margins that are indicative of a monopoly. In its most recent quarter, the company reported an operating margin of 50.6%, as it spends relatively little on overhead costs to run its foundries.TSMC is also growing quickly, with revenue up 48% year over year. And Buffett would almost certainly approve of the price tag, as it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 and offers a 2.3% dividend yield. TSMC likely trades at a discount due to investor concerns about Chinese stocks, but the chipmaker hasn't faced as much backlash as Tencent or Alibaba. Unlike those companies, TSMC makes essential infrastructure, and its base in Taiwan makes it more politically sensitive than Mainland Chinese companies.With TSMC's market cap of more than $400 billion, Berkshire can invest billions in it without having to worry about special disclosures that are required when a company owns a significant percentage of another company (generally when the ownership exceeds 10%).2. RHRH, the high-end home furnishings company formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is much smaller than TSMC, but Berkshire added to its RH holdings in the third quarter, buying 190,000 additional shares of the home-goods stock. That brings its total to 2.36 million shares, or roughly $230 million.Share prices of RH have fallen more than 50% from their peak in September 2021 because demand for home furnishings is slowing as the boom from the pandemic fades and recessionary headwinds set in.However, RH is still highly profitable; its adjusted operating margin was 24.7% in its second quarter. That's an unusually wide profit margin for a retailer, which is a sign of its competitive advantages.RH employs a unique business model, selling memberships in order to build customer loyalty and encourage repeat purchases. Wall Street was dismissive of the idea when RH first introduced it in 2016, but the stock and the business have soared since then, proving RH CEO Gary Friedman right.The company is now looking to expand its brand beyond home furnishings by managing hotels and restaurants and leasing planes and yachts. RH is also launching its own streaming service, which will focus on architecture and design. Those moves show that the company aims to leverage its brand equity in home furnishings into new categories. With its wealthy, loyal customer base, the strategy could pay off, especially the streaming content.The retailer is likely to feel the macroeconomic headwinds over the next few quarters. But when the economy strengthens, RH looks primed to soar because its new businesses will have had time to build momentum.Currently, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10, which looks like a great value for a disruptive luxury brand with a long track record of outperformance. Buffett and his team have clearly taken notice.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961536978,"gmtCreate":1668993554894,"gmtModify":1676538135636,"author":{"id":"3574676247471081","authorId":"3574676247471081","name":"Randycje","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574676247471081","authorIdStr":"3574676247471081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961536978","repostId":"1117170787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117170787","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669002303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117170787?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117170787","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.</li><li>Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.</li></ul><p>It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.</p><p>Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.</p><p>St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.</p><p>The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.</p><p>If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.</p><p><b>VIX Positioning</b></p><p>Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.</p><p>In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb742a0f644a317b0c584c79d197735\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Rates And The Dollar</b></p><p>The bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a10f01649229138206ef78793ac66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.</p><p>Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b54ba9843396edf02be5023d2da16\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Fall Back Plan</b></p><p>Just in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.</p><p>This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.</p><p>The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 11:45 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117170787","content_text":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.VIX PositioningAdditionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.TradingViewRates And The DollarThe bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.BloombergThe view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.TradingViewFall Back PlanJust in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9961536745,"gmtCreate":1668993611588,"gmtModify":1676538135652,"author":{"id":"3574676247471081","authorId":"3574676247471081","name":"Randycje","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574676247471081","authorIdStr":"3574676247471081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"time to invest","listText":"time to invest","text":"time to invest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961536745","repostId":"2284006934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284006934","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1669010357,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284006934?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 13:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284006934","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Warren Buffett just bought these two stocks. Should you?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>'s every move. That includes perusing its 13-F filings every quarter to see what Buffett's conglomerate bought and sold. The most recent of these was released on Nov. 14.</p><p>As usual, the third-quarter filing had a few surprises in it. Let's take a look at two Buffett stocks referenced in the recent disclosure that would be a good fit for almost any investor. These are a couple of stocks you might want to get greedy with.</p><h2>1. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</h2><p>Berkshire's most surprising purchase in the third quarter was <b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</b>, the world's largest microchip manufacturer. TSMC, as it is often called, is the company that chip designers like <b>Nvidia</b>, <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b>, <b>Apple</b>, and <b>Intel</b> enlist to actually produce the chips they design.</p><p>TSMC is a new holding for Berkshire, which bought more than 60 million shares of it in the third quarter, worth about $4 billion. It's now Berkshire's 10th-biggest holding.</p><p>TSMC has a number of attributes that make it a classic Buffett stock. First, it has a huge economic moat as the largest semiconductor foundry. A wide range of companies and products depend on TSMC, and it dominates the foundry arena with a 53% market share.</p><p>Majority market share in an essential industry sounds perfect for a Berkshire holding, and TSMC also enjoys the kinds of margins that are indicative of a monopoly. In its most recent quarter, the company reported an operating margin of 50.6%, as it spends relatively little on overhead costs to run its foundries.</p><p>TSMC is also growing quickly, with revenue up 48% year over year. And Buffett would almost certainly approve of the price tag, as it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 and offers a 2.3% dividend yield. TSMC likely trades at a discount due to investor concerns about Chinese stocks, but the chipmaker hasn't faced as much backlash as <b>Tencent </b>or <b>Alibaba</b>. Unlike those companies, TSMC makes essential infrastructure, and its base in Taiwan makes it more politically sensitive than Mainland Chinese companies.</p><p>With TSMC's market cap of more than $400 billion, Berkshire can invest billions in it without having to worry about special disclosures that are required when a company owns a significant percentage of another company (generally when the ownership exceeds 10%).</p><h2>2. RH</h2><p><b>RH</b>, the high-end home furnishings company formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is much smaller than TSMC, but Berkshire added to its RH holdings in the third quarter, buying 190,000 additional shares of the home-goods stock. That brings its total to 2.36 million shares, or roughly $230 million.</p><p>Share prices of RH have fallen more than 50% from their peak in September 2021 because demand for home furnishings is slowing as the boom from the pandemic fades and recessionary headwinds set in.</p><p>However, RH is still highly profitable; its adjusted operating margin was 24.7% in its second quarter. That's an unusually wide profit margin for a retailer, which is a sign of its competitive advantages.</p><p>RH employs a unique business model, selling memberships in order to build customer loyalty and encourage repeat purchases. Wall Street was dismissive of the idea when RH first introduced it in 2016, but the stock and the business have soared since then, proving RH CEO Gary Friedman right.</p><p>The company is now looking to expand its brand beyond home furnishings by managing hotels and restaurants and leasing planes and yachts. RH is also launching its own streaming service, which will focus on architecture and design. Those moves show that the company aims to leverage its brand equity in home furnishings into new categories. With its wealthy, loyal customer base, the strategy could pay off, especially the streaming content.</p><p>The retailer is likely to feel the macroeconomic headwinds over the next few quarters. But when the economy strengthens, RH looks primed to soar because its new businesses will have had time to build momentum.</p><p>Currently, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10, which looks like a great value for a disruptive luxury brand with a long track record of outperformance. Buffett and his team have clearly taken notice.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Buffett Stocks to Get Greedy With Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 13:59 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow Berkshire Hathaway's every move. That includes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RH":"Restoration Hardware Holdings","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/20/2-buffett-stocks-to-get-greedy-with-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284006934","content_text":"Given CEO Warren Buffett's straightforward investing advice and a long track record of huge returns, it's not surprising that investors closely follow Berkshire Hathaway's every move. That includes perusing its 13-F filings every quarter to see what Buffett's conglomerate bought and sold. The most recent of these was released on Nov. 14.As usual, the third-quarter filing had a few surprises in it. Let's take a look at two Buffett stocks referenced in the recent disclosure that would be a good fit for almost any investor. These are a couple of stocks you might want to get greedy with.1. Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingBerkshire's most surprising purchase in the third quarter was Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest microchip manufacturer. TSMC, as it is often called, is the company that chip designers like Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, and Intel enlist to actually produce the chips they design.TSMC is a new holding for Berkshire, which bought more than 60 million shares of it in the third quarter, worth about $4 billion. It's now Berkshire's 10th-biggest holding.TSMC has a number of attributes that make it a classic Buffett stock. First, it has a huge economic moat as the largest semiconductor foundry. A wide range of companies and products depend on TSMC, and it dominates the foundry arena with a 53% market share.Majority market share in an essential industry sounds perfect for a Berkshire holding, and TSMC also enjoys the kinds of margins that are indicative of a monopoly. In its most recent quarter, the company reported an operating margin of 50.6%, as it spends relatively little on overhead costs to run its foundries.TSMC is also growing quickly, with revenue up 48% year over year. And Buffett would almost certainly approve of the price tag, as it trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 and offers a 2.3% dividend yield. TSMC likely trades at a discount due to investor concerns about Chinese stocks, but the chipmaker hasn't faced as much backlash as Tencent or Alibaba. Unlike those companies, TSMC makes essential infrastructure, and its base in Taiwan makes it more politically sensitive than Mainland Chinese companies.With TSMC's market cap of more than $400 billion, Berkshire can invest billions in it without having to worry about special disclosures that are required when a company owns a significant percentage of another company (generally when the ownership exceeds 10%).2. RHRH, the high-end home furnishings company formerly known as Restoration Hardware, is much smaller than TSMC, but Berkshire added to its RH holdings in the third quarter, buying 190,000 additional shares of the home-goods stock. That brings its total to 2.36 million shares, or roughly $230 million.Share prices of RH have fallen more than 50% from their peak in September 2021 because demand for home furnishings is slowing as the boom from the pandemic fades and recessionary headwinds set in.However, RH is still highly profitable; its adjusted operating margin was 24.7% in its second quarter. That's an unusually wide profit margin for a retailer, which is a sign of its competitive advantages.RH employs a unique business model, selling memberships in order to build customer loyalty and encourage repeat purchases. Wall Street was dismissive of the idea when RH first introduced it in 2016, but the stock and the business have soared since then, proving RH CEO Gary Friedman right.The company is now looking to expand its brand beyond home furnishings by managing hotels and restaurants and leasing planes and yachts. RH is also launching its own streaming service, which will focus on architecture and design. Those moves show that the company aims to leverage its brand equity in home furnishings into new categories. With its wealthy, loyal customer base, the strategy could pay off, especially the streaming content.The retailer is likely to feel the macroeconomic headwinds over the next few quarters. But when the economy strengthens, RH looks primed to soar because its new businesses will have had time to build momentum.Currently, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10, which looks like a great value for a disruptive luxury brand with a long track record of outperformance. Buffett and his team have clearly taken notice.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961536978,"gmtCreate":1668993554894,"gmtModify":1676538135636,"author":{"id":"3574676247471081","authorId":"3574676247471081","name":"Randycje","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574676247471081","authorIdStr":"3574676247471081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961536978","repostId":"1117170787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117170787","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669002303,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117170787?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117170787","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.</li><li>Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.</li></ul><p>It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.</p><p>Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.</p><p>St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.</p><p>The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.</p><p>If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.</p><p><b>VIX Positioning</b></p><p>Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.</p><p>In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb742a0f644a317b0c584c79d197735\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Rates And The Dollar</b></p><p>The bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a10f01649229138206ef78793ac66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.</p><p>Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b54ba9843396edf02be5023d2da16\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Fall Back Plan</b></p><p>Just in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.</p><p>This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.</p><p>The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 11:45 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117170787","content_text":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.VIX PositioningAdditionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.TradingViewRates And The DollarThe bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.BloombergThe view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.TradingViewFall Back PlanJust in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968859668,"gmtCreate":1669183676954,"gmtModify":1676538164066,"author":{"id":"3574676247471081","authorId":"3574676247471081","name":"Randycje","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574676247471081","authorIdStr":"3574676247471081"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968859668","repostId":"9968396645","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9968396645,"gmtCreate":1669122278287,"gmtModify":1676538155088,"author":{"id":"4103964166972300","authorId":"4103964166972300","name":"HONGHAO","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a26aa9fb50cf7fbc23e6d68527832622","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103964166972300","authorIdStr":"4103964166972300"},"themes":[],"title":"Hao Hong | Outlook 2023: A Cyclical Recovery","htmlText":"Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","listText":"Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","text":"Key Takeaways China finetuning “COVID-Zero”; flames of “Dual Circulation” turning blue. The Chinese authority is finetuning “COVID-0”, at a juncture when negative exports growth for the first time in 29 months and negative retail growth are suggesting receding demand both home and abroad. Yet onshore market rebounded strongly – from a similar level last seen at the onset of COVID in Mar 2020 China’s export cycle, an intermediate economic cycle running every seven years, has peaked in Feb 2021, and has translated to slowing accumulation of current account surplus compared with GDP. The export cycle correlates closely with China’s stock market cycle via the liquidity created via its export cycle. Thus, a peaking export cycle argues against a “secular bull market” suggested by conse","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28556b4416f8de586ea6b5b50f2c090","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d0571933c7de02809ab9c39d950891","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d99bb34d19c7960efdb8a6ff164f2a2f","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968396645","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":16,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
