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08:57

Now we know why democrats lost the election.

The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock

11-21 09:35

nonsense

Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)

10-31

Low level

Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain

09-27

Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.

Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side

09-23

Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.

Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying

09-22

Brain-damaged articles

Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market

09-18

Another liar.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

09-16

The writer knows nothing

Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving

09-13

u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

09-09

Nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

09-05

May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?

Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading

09-04

may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]

Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results

09-04

Share your opinion about this news…

Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell

09-03

Tell something we don't know. waste of time.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

08-30

[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]

Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell

08-09

Nonsense

BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels

08-06

Nonsense

Sorry, the original content has been removed

08-02

Nonsense

Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management

07-24

[Weak] [Weak]

Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash

07-22

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Yes buy the dip

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485444956","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe DOJ-Google Fight Comes Into Focus. Why It's Finally Hitting Alphabet's Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-22 07:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it&#39;s gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.</p><p>But the DOJ&#39;s full intentions weren&#39;t fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.</p><p>While media reports had telegraphed the government&#39;s demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2347baa2536c44f072e18ffba04106cc\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p>Here&#39;s why investors are nervous:</p><p>An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ&#39;s case. Most prominent among these are Google&#39;s payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google&#39;s cost-of-revenue. But they&#39;re also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple&#39;s net income that year.</p><p>It&#39;s not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don&#39;t seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.</p><p>Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.</p><p>These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its &#34;traffic acquisition costs.&#34; They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google&#39;s cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet&#39;s gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.</p><p>The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.</p><p>The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ&#39;s proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google&#39;s primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google&#39;s success.</p><p>The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ&#39;s recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google&#39;s compliance with the judge&#39;s ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.</p><p>The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google&#39;s source code and algorithms, Google&#39;s most prized intellectual property.</p><p>If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.</p><p>On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government&#39;s proposals: &#34;DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, &#34; the company said in a blog post. &#34;Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America&#39;s global technology leadership.&#34;</p><p>Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ&#39;s suggested remedies.</p><p>Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.</p><p>The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ&#39;s lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it&#39;s important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.</p><p>No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.</p><p>Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ&#39;s proposal will come to fruition.</p><p>&#34;We do not see a breakup in the next few years,&#34; Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron&#39;s on Thursday. &#34;We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU1935043536.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","MSFT":"微软","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0029864427.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0994945656.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC 2","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","SG9999018857.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fd Cl Acc SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","AAPL":"苹果","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0949170426.SGD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0784384876.USD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 USD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2485444956","content_text":"The U.S. Department of Justice has aggressively pursued Google as a monopolist in recent years, going back to the first Trump administration. And it's gotten a federal judge to rule in its favor.But the DOJ's full intentions weren't fully clear until late last night when the department filed specific remedies that it would like to see the U.S. District judge impose. The DOJ is out for a pound of flesh.While media reports had telegraphed the government's demand to sever Chrome and Android from Google, the filing went much further. The government has a set of demands that go deeply into the way Google does business, and it seems to be spooking investors. Until now, shares of Google-parent Alphabet have largely escaped regulatory worry. But on Thursday, the stock was down 4.7%.Here's why investors are nervous:An end to search payments: The payments that Google makes to be the default on mobile devices were at the heart of the DOJ's case. Most prominent among these are Google's payouts to Apple, which were pegged at $20 billion in 2022 during the trail. That number represented 16% of Google's cost-of-revenue. But they're also material to Apple, comprising 5% of its 2022 revenue. Assuming that stream of payments all falls to the bottom line, it would have been roughly 21% of Apple's net income that year.It's not clear how Apple would replace that income, though, for now investors don't seem particularly worried. Apple shares were up slightly on Wednesday.Google also makes payments to Android smartphone providers to ensure its software is preloaded on phones, and that its search is the default option. If the DOJ gets its way, those payments would also be banned.These payments to the smartphone makers and others are what Google calls its \"traffic acquisition costs.\" They totaled $40 billion in the first nine months of 2024, or 38% of Google's cost of revenue. If the company was banned from making these payments, Alphabet's gross margins would rise substantially immediately. On the downside, without the payments, Google could lose search market share, thereby limiting advertising revenue down the road. That impact is long-term and uncertain.The ban goes beyond third-party payments. The DOJ has said it wants to stop Google from using its search engine as the default option on its own line of Pixel smartphones.The DOJ wants the keys to the castle: The DOJ's proposed remedy would force Google to share its most important data with rivals, including well-heeled ones like Microsoft. One of Google's primary advantages would be lost -- its treasure trove of exclusive data, including its search index, ad data, and user data. These large data sets are the foundation of Google's success.The Enforcement: Perhaps the most intrusive part of the proposal is the DOJ's recommendation to create a technical committee that would oversee Google's compliance with the judge's ruling. The committee would be composed of five members, with a nomination process that almost guarantees the government would control a majority of the committee.The group would have broad powers to oversee Google, including interviewing employees, and accessing all documents, servers, and employee devices on request. The committee would also get to see Google's source code and algorithms, Google's most prized intellectual property.If the DOJ gets its way, most of the remedies would be in place for 10 years.On Thursday, Google had a blunt response to the government's proposals: \"DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case, \" the company said in a blog post. \"Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America's global technology leadership.\"Next up: The court is scheduled to decide on the penalty phase of the Google trial in April, with a final ruling due in August. U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta could choose to reject some or all of the DOJ's suggested remedies.Any actual enforcement could take years to play out. Google has already declared that it will appeal, and Mehta could decide to stay any remedies during the appeal, a process that could stretch out for years.The wild card: In the meantime, there is a new administration coming to the White House in January, and new appointees at the DOJ. Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ's lead on its cases against Google, will likely be replaced. But it's important to remember that this case originated in 2020 under the first Trump administration and it includes 49 states as co-plaintiffs. Most of these states have Republican Attorneys General.No one knows how a new DOJ would handle the case.Many on Wall Street remain doubtful the DOJ's proposal will come to fruition.\"We do not see a breakup in the next few years,\" Dan Ives of Wedbush told Barron's on Thursday. \"We see business model tweaks and also a much different tone from the Trump administration around Big Tech on the horizon.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107275997","pubTimestamp":1730347534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107275997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107275997","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2924817183\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.</p></li><li><p>The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.</p></li><li><p>Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.</p></li><li><p>This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.</p></li><li><p>The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" title=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.</p><p>Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia&#39;s CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_564023179\">Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flag</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Nvidia&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3d9b95d53a545ead96236dc2753a978\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.</span></p><p></p><p>A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia&#39;s EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.</p><p><strong>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03b8bf26eecf70de5756a2eee12c0149\" alt=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.</p><p><strong>Google&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3212c7fcc43d67625db4c2f74eab4f61\" alt=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"185\"/><span>Google forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>Alphabet&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.</p><p>Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.</p><h3 id=\"id_3471036033\">Do not underestimate AMD and other competitors</h3><p>In the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD&#39;s estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD&#39;s AI chips.</p><p>Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.</p><p>Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.</p><h3 id=\"id_3652408428\">Beating expectations is not enough</h3><p>Nvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ce05bf9b215bf61b6798cc66b3c596\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"246\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.</span></p><p>Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.</p><h3 id=\"id_1561503892\">Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocks</h3><p>The huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet&#39;s lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555184544ef3b6a44f67c8e8fd587927\" alt=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" title=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"397\"/><span>Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.</span></p><p>There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.</p><h2 id=\"id_83402496\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.</p><p>It is highly likely that Nvidia&#39;s market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107275997","content_text":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USANvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia's CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flagNvidia's has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia's forward earnings uncertainty.Nvidia's EPS estimateNvidia's forward earnings estimate.A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia's EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.AMD's EPS estimateAMD's forward EPS estimate.AMD's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.Google's EPS estimateGoogle forward EPS estimate.Alphabet's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.Do not underestimate AMD and other competitorsIn the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD's estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia's revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD's AI chips.Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.Beating expectations is not enoughNvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.Nvidia's earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocksThe huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet's lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet's EPS and forward PE.There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.Investor TakeawayNvidia's forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.It is highly likely that Nvidia's market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470763038","pubTimestamp":1727417054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470763038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 14:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470763038","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metric","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.</p></li><li><p>The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.</p></li><li><p>Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.</p></li><li><p>We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.</p></li><li><p>The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>BING-JHEN HONG</p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.</p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia&#39;s revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margin.</p><p>The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_1545308843\">Looking beyond Nvidia</h3><p>To gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a13411b5084427c3632c39a5fbe23c5\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia filings.</em></p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia&#39;s Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2816e736c09bcd38c332ab7890f3f69e\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>The big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.</p><p>As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon&#39;s AWS in the last few quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa128a33a23c119a6ac23fca333ad946\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Amazon Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source:</em> <em>Amazon filings.</em></p><p>AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft&#39;s Cloud.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba02c9463c9150cafa7fa0e8623f6a60\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>There has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.</p><h3 id=\"id_2287063006\">Margin pressure from competition</h3><p>Nvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD&#39;s current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia&#39;s margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.</p><p>There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8028fe9a0699d26b09f7c11bd55fcb30\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s revenue base in different regions. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia Filings.</em></p><p>One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.</p><h3 id=\"id_602071535\">EPS growth trend does not look very promising</h3><p>Beyond 2025, Nvidia&#39;s EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/714b0fc57fa927f9765d267618c38599\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source:</em> <em>Seeking Alpha.</em></p><p>It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a890ba7bca293417214bdff2d3fe16e\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia and AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.</p><p>Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3652055779\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margins estimate.</p><p>Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 14:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX 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HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470763038","content_text":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.BING-JHEN HONGNvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia's revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia's revenue and margin.The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.Looking beyond NvidiaTo gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source: Nvidia filings.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia's Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.YChartsFigure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source: YChartsThe big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon's AWS in the last few quarters.Amazon FilingsFigure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source: Amazon filings.AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft's Cloud.YChartsFigure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source: YChartsThere has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.Nvidia's management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.Margin pressure from competitionNvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia's revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD's current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia's margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's revenue base in different regions. Source: Nvidia Filings.One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.EPS growth trend does not look very promisingBeyond 2025, Nvidia's EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.Seeking AlphaFigure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source: Seeking Alpha.It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.YChartsFigure: Nvidia and AMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source: YChartsAMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.Investor TakeawayNvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia's revenue and margins estimate.Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352503559565592,"gmtCreate":1727100416096,"gmtModify":1727100420984,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","listText":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","text":"Take a look at what this guy say about NVDA, he is just a joke. Never listen to him.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352503559565592","repostId":"2469136521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2469136521","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1727095500,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469136521?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-23 20:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469136521","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft’s Stock Hit with a Rare Downgrade. Why This Analyst Says Stop Buying\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-23 20:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullish</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1ac2bdff5a271ce6efc5470f3cf89\" alt=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" title=\"Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"614\"/><span>Microsoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.</span></p><p>Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.</p><p>The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.</p><p>Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.</p><p>So why is Luria no longer bullish?</p><p>“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c38854602045cd5ef2098e77901085cb\" alt=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" title=\"PHOTO: FACTSET\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>PHOTO: FACTSET</span></p><p>Luria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”</p><p>“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&amp;P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469136521","content_text":"D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria is now one of the 5% of analysts covering Microsoft who aren’t bullishMicrosoft’s stock gets downgraded to a rare neutral rating due to concerns it’s losing ground to Amazon and Alphabet.Shares of Microsoft Corp. leaned lower in early Monday trading, after D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria became one of the rare Wall Street analysts who isn’t enthusiastic about the software giant and artificial-intelligence play.Luria cut his rating on the stock to neutral, after being at buy since January 2023. He kept his price target at $475, which still implies a 9.1% upside from Friday’s closing price of $435.27.The stock slipped 0.4% in premarket trading.Luria acknowledged that Microsoft has accelerated growth and expanded margins over the past few quarters, as the company benefited from being the first to embrace and commercialize generative AI. With its early investment in OpenAI, Microsoft’s cloud-computing platform Azure took a “significant lead” over Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS and Alphabet Inc.’s Google Cloud Platform.So why is Luria no longer bullish?“We believe that Microsoft’s lead is now diminished in both the cloud business and code generation business, which will make it hard for [Microsoft] to continue to outperform,” Luria wrote in a note to clients.Of the 59 analysts surveyed by FactSet who rate Microsoft’s stock, 56 are bullish, two are now neutral and one is bearish. The average price target on the stock is $497.43.PHOTO: FACTSETLuria said AWS is now adding nearly as much cloud business as Azure, and GCP has also seen its business accelerate to comparable growth rates as Azure last quarter.And importantly, he said D.A. Davidson’s proprietary hyperscaler semiconductor analysis shows that AWS and GCP are far ahead of Microsoft in using their own chips in their data centers, which should give them an advantage over Azure going forward.Microsoft’s Maia chips are “years behind” those of Amazon and Google. That makes Microsoft reliant on chips made by Nvidia Corp., Luria said, which in turn means Microsoft “will continue to shift wealth from its shareholders to [Nvidia] shareholders.”“We believe this means Microsoft has been escalating an arms rate it may not be able to win,” Luria wrote.He noted that after margins expanded significantly in the past year, Microsoft expects operating margins to decline in fiscal 2025.That’s because Microsoft has to boost the percentage of revenue it allocates for data-center capital expenditures to a higher rate than both Amazon and Google, given its reliance on a third party — Nvidia — for its chips.Every year that Microsoft “over invests” in its datacenters, at current rates, it will reduce operating margins by at least one percentage point.“Microsoft would need to lay off ~10,000 employees for every year of over-investment in order to offset the margin drag,” Luria wrote.Microsoft’s stock has gained 15.8% year to date through Friday, while Amazon shares have run up 26.1% and Alphabet’s stock has advanced 17.1%. The S&P 500 index has rallied 19.6% this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2469511719","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726962870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469511719?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-22 07:54","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469511719","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\". The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent  -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469511719","content_text":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\"The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow's gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day's rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late '90s don't exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, \"Don't Panic About the Credit Market,\" in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.\"Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,\" he wrote. \"The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.\"Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007's rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.The chairman of the Fed doesn't have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that \"the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.\"His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn't headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren't very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China's alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.We're not in Kansas any more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350719366373720,"gmtCreate":1726650395890,"gmtModify":1726650399532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another liar.","listText":"Another liar.","text":"Another liar.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350719366373720","repostId":"1191591104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350073235079400,"gmtCreate":1726495007688,"gmtModify":1726495011489,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The writer knows nothing","listText":"The writer knows nothing","text":"The writer knows nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350073235079400","repostId":"2467155168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467155168","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726486731,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467155168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-16 19:38","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467155168","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stoc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-16 19:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467155168","content_text":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips\"Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,\" wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. \"They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.\"However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.Groq's chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346113790402824,"gmtCreate":1725527210283,"gmtModify":1725527214532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","listText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","text":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346113790402824","repostId":"1186916268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186916268","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725523255,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186916268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-05 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186916268","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. $NVIDIA Corp$  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-05 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDL":"GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186916268","content_text":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. NVIDIA Corp  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia. Tesla Motors  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla's AI team's account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.The EV maker's CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345806160150816,"gmtCreate":1725430725198,"gmtModify":1725430728876,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345806160150816","repostId":"2464351176","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464351176","pubTimestamp":1725428700,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464351176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-04 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464351176","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by V","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Broadcom&#39;s Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.</p></li><li><p>The software segment, bolstered by VMware, is expected to double sales to $5.5 billion, overshadowing modest growth in semiconductor and AI segments.</p></li><li><p>Despite impressive growth, Broadcom&#39;s valuation is high at 26 times earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of its premium valuation.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8c91587eababb5a90a14f1f8183f7b1a\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will report its fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on Sept. 5. Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.</p><h2 id=\"id_648776196\">AI or Not AI</h2><p>In contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52d0e70018b4ded1cf805bd0e748e128\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>Despite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d5d225a519e5b40485093100af19f89\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_4278677996\">No Surprises</h2><p>Broadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f1a78a94a703a65991bac4cf430ef68\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3511479312\">Options Betting on Further Upside</h2><p>Looking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.</p><p>It&#39;s important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/13056874964d6a821c5d80a23dd8cfae\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><h2 id=\"id_623294998\">Already At Support</h2><p>From a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c37dc34a2c29767ce2b7f2bbae4a8beb\" alt=\"TradingView\" title=\"TradingView\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\"/><span>TradingView</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3577052737\">Not Cheap</h2><p>Valuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8df38f6c2538ff1c591f7436fa2c929a\" alt=\"Bloomberg\" title=\"Bloomberg\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\"/><span>Bloomberg</span></p><p>While Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.</p><p>Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroadcom's Stock May Drop Sharply Following Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-04 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Broadcom's Q3 earnings forecast shows a 15% year-over-year EPS increase and 46% year-over-year revenue growth, driven mainly by its infrastructure software segment.The software segment, bolstered by ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718714-broadcom-stock-may-drop-sharply-following-results\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","BK4588":"碎股","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0444973449.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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Analysts are forecasting a 15% y/y increase in earnings per share to $1.22, alongside a significant 46% y/y growth in revenue, bringing the total to approximately $13 billion. However, it’s important to note that the growth in Broadcom’s Semiconductor Solutions segment is expected to be relatively modest, with an anticipated increase of just 7% y/y, reaching $7.4 billion. The company’s AI segment is projected to see only a slight uptick, growing by 5% q/q to $3.3 billion.AI or Not AIIn contrast, Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment drives much of the company’s overall growth. This unit is expected to see its sales more than double, reaching $5.5 billion, with VMware contributing $3.3 billion. This shift highlights Broadcom’s growth, which is increasingly coming from its software side, mainly through acquiring VMware, rather than from its traditional semiconductor business. This dynamic may surprise those who view Broadcom primarily as an AI-driven company, which makes up a relatively small amount of total revenue.BloombergDespite the company’s impressive growth figures, Broadcom no longer provides quarterly guidance, having shifted to offering only annual forecasts. For the current year, the company is targeting $51 billion in revenue, a figure that was reiterated last quarter. Analysts expect it to slightly exceed that at $51.7 billion.BloombergNo SurprisesBroadcom has a history of reporting in line with revenue estimates, with last quarter marking its most significant beat in recent times at 3.5%. Regarding adjusted earnings, the company also tends to beat expectations by a small margin, typically around 1%. Market expectations for Broadcom’s stock movement post earnings are modest, with a projected move of around 6.7%.BloombergOptions Betting on Further UpsideLooking at options positioning for the week of Sept. 6, implied volatility [IV] is relatively modest at 77%, though it should continue to rise heading into the earnings release as event risk builds. The options market is very bullish on Broadcom, as noted by the solid positive call gamma and delta values, particularly around the $160 strike price, with resistance at $170 and support near $150.It's important to note that once the event risk passes, the implied volatility will drop, and both the calls and the puts will see their premiums fall dramatically. As of Sept. 3, a buyer of the $160 calls needs the stock to rise above $166 following the results, or the options will lose value by 6.5%. This is similar to what happened with Nvidia, and if the stock cannot clear $160, option holders could sell their positions. That may be hard to do, considering the implied move being priced in by the market is just 6.75%, as already noted.BloombergAlready At SupportFrom a technical perspective, Broadcom’s stock is currently trading around $155, a level that had previously served as support. The $170 area appears to be a key resistance point, while the $136 region has recently been a support zone.TradingViewNot CheapValuation wise, Broadcom is trading at 26 times earnings, significantly higher than its historical average of around 13 to 14 times. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is currently valued at 12 to 13 times sales, well above historical norms. This elevated valuation suggests that much of the optimism around Broadcom is tied to its AI prospects, despite the bulk of its growth coming from the VMware acquisition.BloombergWhile Broadcom’s AI business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue in the coming years, its current valuation appears stretched, particularly when compared to its historical trends. Investors seem to be betting on further upside, but the steep valuation raises questions about whether Broadcom can continue to justify its premium valuation.Additionally, the big risk here is that Broadcom does what it normally does when it reports results, delivering as expected. If that should happen, the overly bullish options market is likely to bring a lot of stock for sale, pushing shares lower, and making the call options a losing bet.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464383499","pubTimestamp":1725377795,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464383499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 23:36","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464383499","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"We look at this and more below. Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.</p></li><li><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.</p></li><li><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee213c33513fe93579d4696a7c904900\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Sundry Photography</p><p></p><p>Our firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell <em>is</em> in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.</p><p>Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”</p><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):</p><blockquote><p>Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. <strong>In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue</strong>.”</p></blockquote><p>Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:</p><blockquote><p>There were no functional changes necessary. And so we&#39;re sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we&#39;re enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”</p></blockquote><p>We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.</p><h2 id=\"id_3290045767\">Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates</h2><p>Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.</p><p>Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e797affa322bf8b07352a00dea24009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3356155711\">Data Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on Tap</h2><p>Data center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.</p><p><strong>Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion</strong>, <strong>including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.</strong></p><p>In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6838c93116c97f7f470e16c9d239b4c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>Nvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.</p><h2 id=\"id_3574828977\">Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks Stretched</h2><p>Nvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. <strong>Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were</p><blockquote><p>“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”</p></blockquote><p>However, I cautioned on the valuation:</p><blockquote><p>“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”</p></blockquote><p>This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.</p></li><li><p>Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.</p></li></ul><p>However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.</p><h2 id=\"id_3790633464\">Eyes on Margins as Blackwell Ramps</h2><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.</p></li><li><p>GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.</p></li><li><p>GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad11c9859a385f1bcb2a07b3c64278dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>The chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin &gt;60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.</p><h2 id=\"id_4176203671\">Conclusion</h2><p>Our pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:</p><blockquote><p>If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”</p></blockquote><p>In contrast, my analysis stated:</p><blockquote><p>From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”</p></blockquote><p>Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3af6cab45517e73899d633e9f930950d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"988\"/></p><p>x.com</p><p></p><p>Earnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.</p><p>Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.</p><p><strong>Recommended Reading:</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Arm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The Stock</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Big Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The Winner</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Palantir’s Stock is Priced for Perfection</strong></p></li></ul><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-03 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  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ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464383499","content_text":"Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.Sundry PhotographyOur firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell is in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:There were no functional changes necessary. And so we're sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we're enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.Q2 Revenue Beats EstimatesQ2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.Tech Insider NetworkData Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on TapData center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion, including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”Tech Insider NetworkNvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks StretchedNvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”However, I cautioned on the valuation:“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.Eyes on Margins as Blackwell RampsMargins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.Tech Insider NetworkThe chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin >60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.ConclusionOur pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”In contrast, my analysis stated:From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.x.comEarnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.Recommended Reading:Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 EarningsArm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The StockBig Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The WinnerPalantir’s Stock is Priced for PerfectionEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345326518845784,"gmtCreate":1725336319270,"gmtModify":1725336322913,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","listText":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","text":"Tell something we don't know. waste of time.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345326518845784","repostId":"2464889067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343990447882384,"gmtCreate":1725006664179,"gmtModify":1725006667888,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343990447882384","repostId":"2463213734","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463213734","pubTimestamp":1724996367,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463213734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 13:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463213734","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.</p></li><li><p>We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.</p></li><li><p>We&#39;re also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.</p></li><li><p>Investor confidence in AMD&#39;s AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD&#39;s real AI capabilities and Wall Street&#39;s AI expectations.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d72c9c9a3e29350ec8e0b6945b60ae\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"304\"/></p><p>Sunny</p><p></p><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that &#34;AI systems are our number one strategic priority.&#34; We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.</p><p>The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street&#39;s AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don&#39;t think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.</p><p>The devil is in the details, so let&#39;s discuss them.</p><p>The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).</p><p>With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD&#39;s access to ZT engineers to &#34;allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.&#34; This doesn&#39;t seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft&#39;s dissatisfaction with AMD&#39;s AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,</p><blockquote><p>&#34;ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.</p><p>We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD&#39;s products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.</p><p>Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia&#39;s H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street&#39;s expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.</p><p>What&#39;s important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they&#39;re on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.</p><p>The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA&#39;s stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don&#39;t see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD&#39;s AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock&#39;s valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.</p><h2 id=\"id_675990054\">Valuation &amp; Word on Wall Street</h2><p>In our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We&#39;ve seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.</p><p>The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street&#39;s high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD&#39;s future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It&#39;s more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company&#39;s growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.</p><p>The following chart outlines AMD&#39;s valuation against the peer group average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f7a8672b56054338755fcd4ee354b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><p>Wall Street&#39;s sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.</p><p>The following charts outline AMD&#39;s sell-side ratings and price targets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a04d8542dce8de62e27e9bf1cc376641\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3652890362\">What to do with the stock</h2><p>We remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdvanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 13:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463213734","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.We're also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.Investor confidence in AMD's AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD's real AI capabilities and Wall Street's AI expectations.SunnyAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that \"AI systems are our number one strategic priority.\" We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street's AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don't think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.The devil is in the details, so let's discuss them.The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD's access to ZT engineers to \"allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.\" This doesn't seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft's dissatisfaction with AMD's AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,\"ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.\"At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD's products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia's H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street's expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.What's important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they're on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA's stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don't see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD's AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock's valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.Valuation & Word on Wall StreetIn our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We've seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street's high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD's future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It's more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company's growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.The following chart outlines AMD's valuation against the peer group average.TechStockProsWall Street's sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.The following charts outline AMD's sell-side ratings and price targets.TechStockProsWhat to do with the stockWe remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336533544542304,"gmtCreate":1723197597064,"gmtModify":1723197601225,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","listText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336533544542304","repostId":"1158112570","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158112570","pubTimestamp":1723195800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158112570?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-09 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158112570","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach p","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving average</p></li><li><p>AI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofA</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8159f2bca744eb7c21c6e471059386d8\" alt=\"Michael Hartnett\" title=\"Michael Hartnett\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"/><span>Michael Hartnett</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Even as the S&amp;P 500 Index dropped about 6% since its mid-July record high, the benchmark has held above its 200-day moving average around 5,050 points, while the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note hasn’t fallen below 4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett wrote in a note. “Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/98ea5842f8309306d1b967e1182b1628\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Global markets have been jolted in the past month as investors have worried that the Fed has been too slow to cut interest rates in time to avert a recession. Still, the S&amp;P 500 rebounded after a report Thursday showed a slower-than-feared cooling in the labor market. The index is now down only 0.5% on the week.</p><p>Hartnett — who has taken a more neutral tone on stocks this year after remaining bearish through a rally in 2023 — said the next technical levels to watch would be the 200-day moving averages for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index as well as an exchange-traded fund tracking big tech.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">They’re currently hovering just above those levels, but a renewed slide would mean the next support for the S&amp;P 500 would kick in at the highs of 2021 — implying a drop of another 10% for the benchmark, the strategist said.</p><p>Hartnett also reiterated his view that investors should sell into the Fed’s first rate cut. He expects winners of the artificial intelligence trade to “wallow” in the second half until earnings pick up.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Instead, he highlighted opportunities in assets that were “strangled by 5% yields and can breathe more easily with yields at 3%-4%,” including government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks and some distressed emerging markets like Brazil.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBofA’s Hartnett Says Market Selloff Yet to Breach Key Levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-09 17:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-09/bofa-s-hartnett-says-market-selloff-yet-to-breach-key-levels?srnd=homepage-americas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158112570","content_text":"Sees slump if stock winners fall below 200-day moving averageAI leaders to falter in second half unless profits shine: BofAMichael HartnettThe turbulence in global financial markets has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.Even as the S&P 500 Index dropped about 6% since its mid-July record high, the benchmark has held above its 200-day moving average around 5,050 points, while the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note hasn’t fallen below 4%.“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett wrote in a note. “Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.Global markets have been jolted in the past month as investors have worried that the Fed has been too slow to cut interest rates in time to avert a recession. Still, the S&P 500 rebounded after a report Thursday showed a slower-than-feared cooling in the labor market. The index is now down only 0.5% on the week.Hartnett — who has taken a more neutral tone on stocks this year after remaining bearish through a rally in 2023 — said the next technical levels to watch would be the 200-day moving averages for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index as well as an exchange-traded fund tracking big tech.They’re currently hovering just above those levels, but a renewed slide would mean the next support for the S&P 500 would kick in at the highs of 2021 — implying a drop of another 10% for the benchmark, the strategist said.Hartnett also reiterated his view that investors should sell into the Fed’s first rate cut. He expects winners of the artificial intelligence trade to “wallow” in the second half until earnings pick up.Instead, he highlighted opportunities in assets that were “strangled by 5% yields and can breathe more easily with yields at 3%-4%,” including government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks and some distressed emerging markets like Brazil.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335551065743560,"gmtCreate":1722957736271,"gmtModify":1722957739644,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335551065743560","repostId":"2457119010","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334136701460720,"gmtCreate":1722609643312,"gmtModify":1722609647035,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334136701460720","repostId":"2456286685","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456286685","pubTimestamp":1722609000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2456286685?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-02 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456286685","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Ell","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world&#39;s largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-02 22:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2456286685","content_text":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world's largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330865534062888,"gmtCreate":1721783388788,"gmtModify":1721783393302,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330865534062888","repostId":"2453076978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453076978","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1721744979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2453076978?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-23 22:29","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453076978","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","AVGO":"博通","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330316783112224,"gmtCreate":1721649530209,"gmtModify":1721649533536,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Yes buy the dip&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Yes buy the dip&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Yes buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330316783112224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":373241717743784,"gmtCreate":1732152928778,"gmtModify":1732152932348,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nonsense","listText":"nonsense","text":"nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373241717743784","repostId":"2485567109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2485567109","pubTimestamp":1732149460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2485567109?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-11-21 08:37","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2485567109","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues  and $0.81 in normalized EPS  for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is trans","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.</li><li>Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.</li><li>Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>BING-JHEN HONG</p></figcaption></figure></p> <div></div> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (<span>NASDAQ:NVDA</span>) (<span>NEOE:NVDA:CA</span>):</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously<span> delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&amp;D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.</span></em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_059d42c5038af5c3e95298f0e1393aff.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/saupload_5feb35eba86ed72e76dbc2132999500c.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>YCharts</span></p></figcaption></figure><p><em>As you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025:</em></p> <ul><li><em>Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley</em></li></ul> <p><em>In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs.</em></p> <p><em>Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!</em></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/14/51572009-17316338825443873.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span></span>Seeking Alpha</p></figcaption></figure><p><em>And, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.</em></p> </blockquote> <h2>How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025?</h2> <p>With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321384876649716.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><strong>In Jensen Huang's words - </strong></p> <blockquote> <p><em>The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference.</em></p> <p><em>AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321391274688108.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025.</p> <p>Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-1732140664575188.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3.</p> <p>And as I said in one of my previous reports,</p> <blockquote> <p><em>Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs].</em></p> <p>Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang &amp; Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration.</p> <p>That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable.</p> <p>If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321422410015776.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Nvidia Investor Relations</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis.</p> <h2>Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings?</h2> <p>In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below.</p> <p><strong>Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:</strong></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321436849318805.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/11/20/51572009-17321437733873487.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p>TQI Valuation Model <span>(Free to use at TQIG.org)</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels.</p> <p>More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.”</p> <p><strong>Key Takeaway:</strong> I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.</p> <div></div> <p>Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Triple Play Not Enough To Justify $3.6T Valuation (Rating Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-21 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1412721464/image_1412721464.jpg","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739158-nvidia-triple-play-not-enough-to-justify-3-6t-valuation-rating-downgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2485567109","content_text":"NVIDIA Corporation surpassed Q3 FY2025 expectations with $35.1B in revenue and $0.81 EPS, driven by strong Data Center segment performance.Despite robust results, concerns linger over supply constraints for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, and ongoing gross margin contraction.Nvidia's stock remains overvalued at $145 per share, with a 5-year expected CAGR of ~3.4%, falling short of my investment hurdle rate.   BING-JHEN HONG  Introduction In my article “Magnificent 7 Are Alive And Well, But A Rest Is Inevitable,” I foresaw a robust Q3 FY2025 report from NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) (NEOE:NVDA:CA):  Over the past two to three decades, \"Mag-7\" tech conglomerates have continuously delivered disruptive innovation and proven themselves to be growth compounding engines. Today, each of these businesses rake in annual revenues of more than $100B; however, scale isn't holding back growth due to past re-investments. Now, the capital allocation at \"Mag-7\" companies has undoubtedly shifted towards capital return in recent years, aggressive re-investments continue - with CAPEX to Revenue for this group ranging from 10-20% [Apple is an exception] and R&D to Revenue ranging from 5-30%.   YCharts  YChartsAs you may know, a huge chunk of this big tech CAPEX spending is going towards GenAI infrastructure - GPUs and long-lived real estate leases, especially in the case of cloud infrastructure providers, i.e., Amazon [AWS], Alphabet [Google Cloud Platform], and Microsoft [Azure]. And based on management commentary, this AI rush is set to continue in 2025: Hyperscaler capex forecasts to hit $300B in 2025: Morgan Stanley In addition to unlocking GenAI capabilities for other organizations, these tech giants are using these resources to improve their existing products and services. For example, Alphabet and Microsoft are redefining the Search market with GenAI-powered user experiences, Meta is using Gen-AI across its Family of Apps to boost ad performance and spending billions on Reality Labs to build the next big computing platform, and Tesla is attempting to solve vehicle autonomy using a cluster of 100,000+ GPUs. Now, given its dominant positioning in the GPU market, Nvidia is receiving almost all of this CAPEX spending as revenue!   Seeking AlphaAnd, with the AI spending boom still in full swing, Nvidia's upcoming Q3 2024 report on 20th November is likely to be robust.  How Did Nvidia Fare In Q3 FY2025? With Nvidia reporting $35.1B in revenues (up +94% y/y, vs. est. $33.1B) and $0.81 in normalized EPS (vs. est. $0.75) for Q3 FY2025, I think it is fair to conclude that the semiconductor behemoth eased past consensus street estimates on top and bottom-line estimates.   Nvidia Investor Relations In Jensen Huang's words -   The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to NVIDIA computing. Demand for Hopper and anticipation for Blackwell — in full production — are incredible as foundation model makers scale pretraining, post-training and inference. AI is transforming every industry, company and country. Enterprises are adopting agentic AI to revolutionize workflows. Industrial robotics investments are surging with breakthroughs in physical AI. And countries have awakened to the importance of developing their national AI and infrastructure  While Nvidia's quarterly gross margin moderated to 75% in Q3 FY2025, hypergrowth in Data Center revenues [$30.77B, +112% y/y] continued unabated as “Compute” revenues soared to $27.64B [+132% y/y] on the back of strong demand for Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, totally overpowering a -15% q/q decline in “Networking” revenues.   Nvidia Investor Relations Given the outsized weight of Nvidia's Data Center segment within the business, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive segments seem irrelevant at this point; however, each of these segments saw healthy y/y growth in Q3 FY2025. Now, buoyed by its robust Q3 performance and strong demand for both Hopper and Blackwell, Nvidia's management have provided above-consensus sales guidance of $37.5B for Q4 FY2025 — completing Nvidia's 8th consecutive triple play, i.e., “double beat and raise” quarter.   Nvidia Investor Relations That said, Nvidia's Q4 revenue guide did fall short of buy-side whisper number of $39B, and the semiconductor giant expects ongoing gross margin contraction to continue next quarter, with Q4 non-GAAP GM expected to land at 73.5%, down from 75% in Q3. And as I said in one of my previous reports,  Nvidia's gross margins contracting to a low 70% level could be an indication of deteriorating pricing power [despite Nvidia's plan of generating SaaS revenues with Blackwell GPUs]. Source: Nvidia Q1 FY2025: AI Party Rolls On, But I Refuse To Dance.  Now, lately, we have seen reports about “overheating” issues tied to Blackwell servers. However, as per Nvidia's latest quarterly report, Blackwell production remains on track, with shipments set to begin in Q4 FY2025 and ramp in FY2026. Furthermore, Huang & Co. called out “supply constraints” for both Hopper and Blackwell, dismissing concerns around near-term demand outlook despite projected revenue growth deceleration. That said, the semiconductor industry is cyclical in nature, and Nvidia's largest customers — cloud hyperscalers [50% of revenues] — are building their own in-house AI chips and partnering with other players [like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)] in the industry. Hence, I think Nvidia's medium-to-long-term demand [growth and margins] remains questionable. If you have been following my work on Nvidia, you know that I do not hold a long position in this counter. While my opinion could still have an element of a bias, I am flabbergasted by Nvidia's aggressive stock buybacks, which rose to $11B in Q3:   Nvidia Investor Relations Yes, Nvidia is experiencing a massive AI windfall right now, with Q3 FCF reaching a record high $16.78B and “cash and short-term investments” soaring to $38.5B. However, if and when the historical cyclicality associated with semis strikes again, stock buybacks at ~20x FY2025E revenue [or ~$3.6T market cap] will look absolutely horrendous. I would rather see Nvidia stockpiling cash through this period (if no better use of capital is possible) ahead of the next down cycle in semis. Concluding Thoughts: Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold After Q3 Earnings? In light of Nvidia's Q3 FY2025 report, I am updating my valuation model's revenue base to FY2025E revenue of $130B [baking in a $1.5B sales beat on management's guidance for Q4 FY2025]. All other assumptions have been held constant from our last assessment and are self-explanatory, but if you have any questions, please share them in the comments section below. Here's my updated valuation model for Nvidia:   TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org)  TQI Valuation Model (Free to use at TQIG.org) Nvidia Corporation remains the most obvious “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush; however, a lot of future success is already baked into Nvidia's current stock price, with TQI's fair value estimate of $80.45 per share pointing to a downside of -45% from current levels. More importantly, Nvidia's long-term risk/reward [derived from aggressive assumptions for long-term growth, future margins, and exit multiples] as measured by 5-year expected CAGR return has deteriorated down to 3.44%; well under risk-free treasury yields of 4-4.5%. In the past, I have rated Nvidia a “Hold;” however, with NVDA now being less attractive than risk-free treasuries, I now view it as a tactical “Sell.” Key Takeaway: I rate Nvidia a tactical “Sell” in the $140s.  Thanks for reading, and happy investing! Please share your thoughts, questions, or concerns in the comments section below.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098656424,"gmtCreate":1644120172943,"gmtModify":1676533892418,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","listText":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.&nbsp;","text":"No brain.. take a look at PYPL price. fall like stone.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098656424","repostId":"2208317024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2208317024","pubTimestamp":1644039774,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2208317024?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 13:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208317024","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These outstanding companies have the potential to generate market-crushing returns.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed&#39;s pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. </p><p>But if you&#39;re an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. </p><p>With $1,000 to invest, look no further than <b>Lululemon</b> (NASDAQ:LULU), <b>Netflix</b> (NASDAQ:NFLX), and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49376da1d2e252d0075d0ae47df63c83\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. Lululemon </h2><p>Since February 2017, Lululemon&#39;s stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon&#39;s impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. </p><p>This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader <b>Nike</b>. A higher metric generally indicates customers&#39; propensity to pay premium prices for a company&#39;s products. In Lululemon&#39;s case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. </p><p>The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men&#39;s outfitter. The men&#39;s segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women&#39;s segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. </p><p>Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. </p><h2>2. Netflix </h2><p>This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. </p><p>Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from <b>S&amp;P Global</b>, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  </p><p>Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That&#39;s a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  </p><h2>3. PayPal</h2><p>Another major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a></b> in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. </p><p>I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company&#39;s brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant <b>Amazon</b> chose to partner with PayPal&#39;s Venmo starting this year. </p><p>Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company&#39;s non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it&#39;s a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. </p><p>Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management&#39;s huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. </p><p>PayPal&#39;s shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now. </p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 No-Brainer Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 13:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","AMZN":"亚马逊","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","PYPL":"PayPal","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/04/3-no-brainer-stocks-to-buy-with-1000-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208317024","content_text":"The S&P 500 has had a cold start to the new year, down 6% in the month of January. This situation might be scaring investors out of the market entirely, as the downward trend could continue with uncertainty about inflation, the Fed's pending rate hikes, and the ongoing pandemic adding to the worries. But if you're an investor with a long time horizon, like me, then now could be the perfect time to add fresh capital to your portfolio. When the market seems overly pessimistic and full of fear is usually the best time to be aggressive. With $1,000 to invest, look no further than Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) as worthy additions to your portfolio. Image source: Getty Images.1. Lululemon Since February 2017, Lululemon's stock has soared 390%, an outstanding investment if you got in at that time. This performance can be attributed to Lululemon's impressive sales and profit growth of 166% and 175%, respectively, over the past five years. Expanding the store footprint, now at 552 locations, also helped. This burgeoning apparel brand sports a better gross margin, at 57.2%, than industry leader Nike. A higher metric generally indicates customers' propensity to pay premium prices for a company's products. In Lululemon's case, having a strong direct-to-consumer presence -- a channel that represented 40% of sales in the most recent quarter -- is crucial for brand relevance. The business first gained popularity as a seller of yoga pants to women, but it has now become a major men's outfitter. The men's segment increased revenue 44% year over year in the fiscal 2021 third quarter, while the women's segment grew 25%. Diversification of revenue sources is a positive sign. Lululemon shares have lost 30% in value over the past three months as the threat of higher interest rates negatively impacts high-multiple, high-growth stocks. Consequently, investors are presented with a great opportunity to buy shares in this thriving retailer at a meaningful pullback. 2. Netflix This top streaming stock reported fourth-quarter 2021 financial results on Jan. 20 that disappointed investors. Management guided to 2.5 million net new subscribers in the current quarter, far less than the 6.9 million Wall Street was expecting. But despite the stock being down 17% since that announcement, Netflix has been a massive winner, rising 200% over the past five years. Quarterly membership growth has certainly been irregular and unpredictable after the pandemic started in the spring of 2020, but the secular shift away from traditional cable TV and toward streaming is not going away. According to data from S&P Global, there were 1.1 billion households worldwide with a cable TV subscription in 2020. This means that Netflix, with its 221.8 million customers today, still has a large runway for expansion in the years ahead.  Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, through his firm Pershing Square Capital Management, took advantage of the market souring on Netflix by scooping up 3.1 million shares. His firm is now a top-20 shareholder in the company. Ackman has a proven track record of pouncing on attractive investment opportunities when the time is right. That's a great endorsement for why you might want to consider owning Netflix stock as well.  3. PayPalAnother major historical winner is fintech behemoth PayPal. Its stock has climbed 379% since the business was spun off from eBay in July 2015. PayPal has long been a pioneer in the digital payments space, and it now counts an impressive 426 million active accounts, of which 34 million are merchants. I think there are three main factors that make PayPal a special business. For starters, the company's brand exemplifies a relentless focus on security and ease of use. These characteristics, along with massive scale to the tune of $1.25 trillion in total payment volume in 2021, are probably why e-commerce giant Amazon chose to partner with PayPal's Venmo starting this year. Additionally, PayPal possesses remarkable financial metrics. In 2021, the company's non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) operating margin of 24.8% was stellar. And the business continued to prove that it's a cash machine, generating $5.4 billion in free cash flow during the 12-month period. Lastly, the company is not done growing. Along with the Amazon partnership, initiatives to bolster the PayPal mobile app and an acquisition like that of Japanese buy now, pay later specialist Paidy showcase management's huge ambition to one day have 1 billion daily active users. PayPal's shares are off more than 50% from their recent high set in July 2021. The stock currently trades for a lower and more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of below 40, making it a solid investment right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274806242608","authorId":"3479274806242608","name":"wubbix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0164ea7c27dfdf8c987c88fa9aebdea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274806242608","authorIdStr":"3479274806242608"},"content":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","text":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future.","html":"Don't worry, PYPL has a promising future."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319460476612744,"gmtCreate":1719022223164,"gmtModify":1719024673775,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319460476612744","repostId":"2445075366","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2445075366","pubTimestamp":1719023400,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2445075366?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-22 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445075366","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Although Nvidia has been all the hype, maybe now is time to take a step back and reconsider investment into the stock.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Corp </strong>(<strong>NVDA</strong>) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.</p></li><li><p>AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/476de51cd5cfc273151e9a63b9d311d8\" alt=\"Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com\" title=\"Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"/><span>Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.com</span></p><p><strong>Nvidia’s </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>NVDA</strong>) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.</p><p>Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. </p><h2 id=\"id_1243175279\">Nvidia Stock Q1 Success</h2><p>Nvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.</p><p>The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. </p><h2 id=\"id_3583760166\">AI Might Be Overhyped </h2><p>Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. </p><p><em>The Wall Street Journal </em>interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong>CSCO</strong>) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.</p><p>Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. </p><h2 id=\"id_2206758967\">Competitive Risks Are Prevalent</h2><p>Nvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being <strong>Intel </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>INTC</strong>)<strong> </strong>and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices </strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>AMD</strong>).</p><p>China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.</p><p>Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. </p><h2 id=\"id_873566403\">Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble </h2><p>Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.</p><p>Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. </p><p>Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.</p><p>The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. </p><p>It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.</p><p>Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. </p><h2 id=\"id_674521919\">Great Company, Lousy Stock </h2><p>Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.</p><p>However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.</p><p>The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace_stock_picks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Price Outlook: Will NVDA Suffer a Dot-Com Bubble Type Disaster?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-22 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2024/06/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-will-nvda-suffer-a-dot-com-bubble-type-disaster/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2445075366","content_text":"Nvidia Corp (NVDA) has seen an impressive performance with 155.58% upside year-to-date with solid financials.AI boom is comparable to the dot-com bubble concerning Nvidia.Nvidia’s stock trades are higher than its peers, and the company faces strong competitive pressure.Source: Sergio Photone / Shutterstock.comNvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) current 10-for-1 stock split has gained investor’s attention because it makes the Nvidia stock more accessible to small investors.Overall, Nvidia’s performance has been awe-inspiring, with an 155.58% upside year-to-date. The company dominates the competition with an 80% market share for AI chips. Still, its stock price is at an all-time high again, which begs whether its valuation is sound. Nvidia Stock Q1 SuccessNvidia experienced substantial growth across the year. The company’s current financial reports for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 show a significant increase in revenue to $26.04 billion, up 262% year over year.The gross margin also improved to 78.4% from 64.6% in the same quarter last year. Nvidia’s earnings per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $6.12, which is 416% up YOY. AI Might Be Overhyped Nvidia’s financial success seems to justify the hype in its stock. However, this might not be the case when we consider the AI market as a whole. About $50 billion has been invested in Nvidia’s chips, but AI startups have only generated around $3 billion in sales. The Wall Street Journal interviewed John Chambers, the CEO of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) during the dot-com bubble. He draws some parallels between Cisco then and Nvidia right now.Both companies had a dominant market share in a large new market while benefiting from large investments from the industry before it was profitable. Cisco’s stock today trades at around $47, never recovering from its peak of $77 in 2000. Competitive Risks Are PrevalentNvidia faces fierce competition in the semiconductor production industry, with the major two being Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).China’s development of its semiconductors could threaten Nvidia’s position internationally. China has long relied on foreign companies for semiconductors like Nvidia, but it plans to produce 70% of its domestic chip use by 2025.Cheap Chinese chips could flood the international markets like its EVs, disrupting pricing for everyone in the industry. Nvidia’s Valuation Is a Gamble Even though Cisco’s stock price never recovered, that didn’t mean it wasn’t a good company. Today, it still has around 41% of the market share and generates over $12 billion a year in revenue.Similarly, Nvidia doesn’t have to be a bad company for its stock to be overvalued and for investors to never make their money back for many years. Analysts have an average price target of $124.14, below its current trading price as of writing. This shows that the market is doubting Nvidia as it continues to break all-time highs seriously.The higher the stock price, the more investors will sell off to take home their profits. It’s currently trading at a trailing Price-to-sales (P/E) ratio of 79.29x and a forward P/E of 52.08x, which accounts for the estimated earnings increase next year.Even so, if we compile the trailing P/E ratio for all the stocks in the Magnificent 7 — a list of tech conglomerates that many already consider overvalued — we get an average P/E ratio of 48.31x. Many of these companies are poised to ride the AI wave but still at a much lower valuation. Great Company, Lousy Stock Nvidia’s stock price has done exceptionally well. It’s financials, no doubt, back that story.However, great companies don’t necessarily mean outstanding stock. It took the Nasdaq-100 15 years to recover from the bubble despite many of those stocks being household names today.The growth of the AI industry is legitimate, but Nvidia isn’t the only way you can invest in it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345446838050944,"gmtCreate":1725379900830,"gmtModify":1725379902772,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share your opinion about this news…","listText":"Share your opinion about this news…","text":"Share your opinion about this news…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345446838050944","repostId":"2464383499","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2464383499","pubTimestamp":1725377795,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2464383499?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-03 23:36","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464383499","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"We look at this and more below. Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.</p></li><li><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.</p></li><li><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee213c33513fe93579d4696a7c904900\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Sundry Photography</p><p></p><p>Our firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell <em>is</em> in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.</p><p>Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”</p><p>Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):</p><blockquote><p>Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. <strong>In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue</strong>.”</p></blockquote><p>Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:</p><blockquote><p>There were no functional changes necessary. And so we&#39;re sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we&#39;re enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”</p></blockquote><p>We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.</p><h2 id=\"id_3290045767\">Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates</h2><p>Q2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.</p><p>Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e797affa322bf8b07352a00dea24009\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3356155711\">Data Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on Tap</h2><p>Data center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.</p><p><strong>Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion</strong>, <strong>including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.</strong></p><p>In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6838c93116c97f7f470e16c9d239b4c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>Nvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.</p><h2 id=\"id_3574828977\">Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks Stretched</h2><p>Nvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. <strong>Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.</strong></p><p>I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were</p><blockquote><p>“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”</p></blockquote><p>However, I cautioned on the valuation:</p><blockquote><p>“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”</p></blockquote><p>This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.</p></li><li><p>Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.</p></li></ul><p>However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.</p><h2 id=\"id_3790633464\">Eyes on Margins as Blackwell Ramps</h2><p>Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.</p></li><li><p>GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.</p></li><li><p>GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad11c9859a385f1bcb2a07b3c64278dc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p>Tech Insider Network</p><p></p><p>The chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin &gt;60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.</p><h2 id=\"id_4176203671\">Conclusion</h2><p>Our pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:</p><blockquote><p>If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”</p></blockquote><p>In contrast, my analysis stated:</p><blockquote><p>From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”</p></blockquote><p>Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3af6cab45517e73899d633e9f930950d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"988\"/></p><p>x.com</p><p></p><p>Earnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.</p><p>Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.</p><p><strong>Recommended Reading:</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 Earnings</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Arm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The Stock</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Big Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The Winner</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Palantir’s Stock is Priced for Perfection</strong></p></li></ul><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock Is Selling Off: It's Not Because Of Blackwell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-03 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0541502299.USD":"ALLSPRING  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ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718668-nvidia-stock-is-selling-off-its-not-because-of-blackwell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2464383499","content_text":"Despite this being one of the “smaller” beats in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia Corporation’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth.Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie, as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4.Margins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ.Sundry PhotographyOur firm extrapolated supply chain data to conclude that Blackwell is in production at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) last week in the analysis: Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay. The media was making much ado about nothing (and astonishingly, still is) despite crystal clear confirmation from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) management team that all is well.Given these delay rumors, it was widely expected that Nvidia’s management would provide some transparency in Q2 as to the status of Blackwell. I joined ‘Making Money’ on Fox Business Network shortly before Nvidia’s report, telling host Charles Payne that “we are getting bullish signals from the supply chain,” such as TSM’s HPC growth and Super Micro’s liquid cooling growth, and that I “fully expect Nvidia’s management team to calm any concerns about the outlook for Blackwell.”Direct liquid cooling doesn’t lie as it’s intricately linked to the Blackwell launch, implying that Blackwell would indeed ship by Q4 – and Nvidia just confirmed that (multiple times) in Q2’s release (emphasis added):Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026. In the fourth quarter, we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”Later in the call, Jensen Huang stated:There were no functional changes necessary. And so we're sampling functional samples of Blackwell — Grace Blackwell in a variety of system configurations as we speak. There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems that are built that were shown at Computex. And we're enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those. The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start production in Q4.”We had published for our free readers going into the print that the valuation was stretched, and it would require fiscal year revisions to create room in the valuation. As you’ll see below, we got a few revisions today, which is paramount for the stock price. Will these upward revisions be enough to sustain the price? We look at this and more below.Q2 Revenue Beats EstimatesQ2’s revenue of $30.04 billion increased 122% YoY and 15% QoQ, with management pointing out that “customers continue to accelerate their Hopper architecture purchases while gearing up to adopt Blackwell.” This marked a $1.3 billion beat to the consensus estimate for $28.75 billion. It also was a deceleration from 262% YoY growth in Q1, as Nvidia is now facing tougher comps against the vertical ramp of Hopper last year. GAAP EPS of $0.67 beat estimates by $0.03, and represented YoY growth of 168% and QoQ growth of 12%.Nvidia guided for Q3 revenue of $32.5 billion, once again above consensus estimates, though it was only $700 million higher than the $31.77 billion estimate at the midpoint. This represents growth of 79.4% YoY at midpoint, compared to the estimate for 75.3% growth next quarter. Despite this being one of the “smaller beats” in recent quarters, it’s a testament to the strength of Nvidia’s demand to guide for $2.5 billion sequential growth primarily based on Hopper demand with no contribution from Blackwell.Tech Insider NetworkData Center Strength Visible with Blackwell on TapData center revenue surpassed a $105 billion annualized run rate this quarter, up from $90 billion annualized last quarter, as Nvidia reported $26.27 billion in data center revenue, up 152% YoY and 16% QoQ. Nvidia said that “Hopper demand is strong, and shipments are expected to increase in the second half of fiscal 2025,” while Blackwell is on track to ramp in Q4 with “several” billions in revenue expected that quarter.Notably, purchase commitments and obligations for inventory and capacity rose nearly 48% QoQ to $27.8 billion, including “new commitments for Blackwell capacity and components,” another signal that Nvidia is prepared to ramp in full-force come Q4.In the segment, compute revenue was $22.6 billion, up 162% YoY, while networking revenue was $3.67 billion, up 114% YoY. In networking, Nvidia noted that InfiniBand and Ethernet drove growth in the quarter, and the 16% QoQ growth included “a doubling of Ethernet for AI revenue.”Tech Insider NetworkNvidia’s Q3 revenue guide implies data center revenue above $28 billion to $28.5 billion, which we had modeled in our pre-earnings analysis earlier this week.Delay Concerns Cleared, But Valuation Looks StretchedNvidia cleared the delay concerns for Blackwell, saying that they “shipped customer samples of our Blackwell architecture in the second quarter. We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yield. Blackwell production ramp is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026,” with several billion in Blackwell revenue expected in Q4. Purchase commitments reiterated that Nvidia is serious about launching on schedule, and lining up the capacity and components to launch in full-force by the end of the year.I spoke with Yahoo Finance on Thursday morning following the report, reemphasizing that the delay concerns were“completely thrown off the table last night. … Wall Street obviously is very closely tied to estimates, and we never saw revisions downward based on the so-called delay. … Nvidia beat, and they’re saying Blackwell is basically on time,” which is “not a concern — if anything, it’s extremely bullish.”However, I cautioned on the valuation:“When you have a high-flyer like Nvidia, you get stretched at times. Going into the print, we warned our members that this valuation is looking a little toppy. What we need is for the fiscal year estimates next year to go up, so we’re in a waiting game for analysts to revise their estimates upward, which eventually they will, but until then the valuation is stretched.”This morning, while I was being interviewed by Yahoo, we’ve already seen analyst estimates for Nvidia’s revenue revised higher following the report:Fiscal 2025 revenue is now estimated at $124.8 billion, up 3.9% from the $120.1 billion estimate before Q2’s report.Fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $172.1 billion, up 5.2% from the $163.6 billion estimate before the report.However, the true impact of Blackwell is yet to be seen in these estimates, with the only clues right now being Q3’s $32.5 billion guide and expectations for several billion in Blackwell revenue in Q4. From a long-term perspective, I explained on Yahoo Finance that the first “pathway for growth is to pay very close attention to Nvidia around the fiscal year guide,” while the “second-biggest moment of the year will be when Blackwell is shipping in volume. This will be the Q2 report, but we’ll get some signs in Q1 with that forward guide.” I believe that “early next year will be fireworks” for Nvidia, similar to Hopper’s moment in the fiscal Q1 report in May 2023.Eyes on Margins as Blackwell RampsMargins remained strong in Q2, with Nvidia reporting gross and operating margins at the high end and above its guided ranges. However, management guided for Q3 margins to contract slightly QoQ, suggesting that Q1 was the peak for both gross and operating margins with some pressure ahead as Blackwell gears up to launch in Q4.GAAP gross margin was 75.1% in Q2, ahead of management’s guide for 74.8%. Adjusted gross margin was 75.7%, ahead of guidance for 75.5%. Per the CFO: “As our Data Center mix continues to shift to new products, we expect this trend to continue into the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” It’s likely she is referring to the higher cost of memory components, which we outlined in our pre-earnings analysis.GAAP operating margin was 62.1%, ahead of the implied guide for 60.5%, indicative of the operating leverage power that Nvidia still commands in mid-launch cycle for Hopper with the H200s shipping now. Adjusted operating margin was 66.4%, ahead of the implied guide of 65.5%.GAAP net margin was 55.3% down from 57.1% last quarter. This represents profits of $16.6 billion, up over $2 billion. This was a considerable beat compared to the $14.3 billion guided.Tech Insider NetworkThe chart above shows Nvidia’s margins, with the slight sequential contraction this quarter and next quarter visible. It’s no small feat to maintain GAAP operating margin >60% for four consecutive quarters while simultaneously undergoing the semiconductor industry’s most advanced and most rapid product release cycle. However, with management guiding for full-year gross margins to be in the mid-70% range, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how margins trend in Q3 heading into Q4 as Blackwell ramps — where the market is a tad concerned is gross margins, which peaked at 78.4% and will exit the year in the mid-70% range.ConclusionOur pre-earnings write-up expressed concerns about the valuation going into the print, and I think the selling on Thursday reflects the valuation. Our firm stuck our neck out over the past few weeks to bring quality information to our readers on how the supply chain for Blackwell is ramping. We were the first and only firm that I’m aware of to present actionable data that countered what other media outlets were reporting. To refresh your memory, media outlets stated Blackwell was delayed into Q1:If the upcoming AI chips, known as the B100, B200 and GB200, are delayed three months or more, it may prevent some customers from operating large clusters of the chips in their data centers in the first quarter of 2025, as they had planned.”In contrast, my analysis stated:From the horse’s mouth, Nvidia’s own management team, it was stated during the GTC Financial Analyst Day in March that the very first systems will ship in Q4, but to expect constraints.”Well, we have our answer – Blackwell is, in fact, shipping in Q4 and ramping in Q1. Purchase commitments up 48% QoQ help to reflect how serious the company is when it comes to the speed of ramping shipments.x.comEarnings reports are truly 50/50 – nobody can tell you what the market will do following a report. For example, we had high confidence Nvidia would beat, but there’s much more to consider than a beat. What’s important is to have a strategy. Our firm champions actively managing tech positions rather than buy-and-hold.Our plan is to trim Nvidia Corporation stock at key levels and attempt to buy lower. This is due to valuation concerns, but also importantly, many AI stocks are trading at stretched valuations. We’ve stated publicly a few times that Nvidia is a buy on dips, implying investors who are patient will find entries at lower prices.Recommended Reading:Nvidia Stock: Blackwell Suppliers Shrug Off Delay Ahead Of Q2 EarningsArm Stock: Buy Its Customers, Not The StockBig Tech Battles On AI, Here’s The WinnerPalantir’s Stock is Priced for PerfectionEditor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335551065743560,"gmtCreate":1722957736271,"gmtModify":1722957739644,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335551065743560","repostId":"2457119010","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2457119010","pubTimestamp":1722957530,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2457119010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-06 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Ample Room For Further Decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2457119010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strat","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strategic weaknesses in GPUs compared to Nvidia and mounting inventory problems.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s valuation ratios are unjustified, with a DCF model indicating a fair price of $85, 36% lower than the current share price.</p></li><li><p>Most prominent clients find Nvidia&#39;s products more appealing than AMD&#39;s, as evidenced by Big Tech companies mentioning Nvidia&#39;s GPUs eleven times more frequently than AMD&#39;s in their latest earnings transcripts, indicating Nvidia&#39;s superior position in the AI race.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c5ebcc44def102b51f242e0a9d23f89\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_867592751\">Introduction</h2><p>I had a Sell-rated thesis about <strong>Advanced Micro Devices </strong>(NASDAQ:AMD) in May, and the stock has declined by 13% over the last three months, compared to +2.5% from the S&amp;P 500 (SP500). AMD delivered its Q2 report recently, which had some positive moments, but I still think that there are more negatives than positives around AMD. There is not much I can say optimistic about the company&#39;s segments apart from Data Centers enjoying strong AI momentum. On the other hand, I think that AMD&#39;s potential in AI is quite limited as it competes with Nvidia (NVDA), which is miles ahead.</p><p>The sky-high inventory problem continues mounting as the balance grew by around $350 million sequentially, further increasing risks of inventory impairment and recording multi-billion P&amp;L charges in the foreseeable future. The stock currently trades around 40% cheaper than its March 2024 peaks, but my analysis suggests that valuation is far from being attractive. All these unfavorable factors mean that I am inclined to reiterate a &#34;Sell&#34; rating for AMD. The extent of overvaluation, which is 36%, makes me think that there is still a lot of space to fall further. Therefore, it appears to be risky to buy or even hold this falling knife (stock price deteriorated by 6% over the last five trading days).</p><h2 id=\"id_2987327171\">Fundamental analysis</h2><p>AMD released its latest 10-Q report on July 31, and I want to focus on it first. Revenue grew by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2024. Revenue growth was quite uneven across the company&#39;s segments. Data Center segment continues capitalizing on massive AI tailwinds as its sales more than doubled YoY in Q2. The segment&#39;s growth was mostly driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs.</p><p>The Client segment (&#39;PC&#39;) also demonstrated strong 50% YoY growth in Q2. On the other hand, I am not as optimistic about the Client segment because comparative figures were quite low. For example, the segment generated $2.2 billion revenue in Q2 2022 meaning that sales still did not recover compared to historical highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fb407b1c39625213db5b91ba96be853d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\"/></p><p>AMD&#39;s 10-Q (Q2 2024)</p><p></p><p>Two other segments disappointed significantly, in my opinion. Gaming revenue more than halved due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue. Embedded revenue also decreased sharply on a YoY basis in Q2, as customers continued normalizing their inventory levels.</p><p>The operating margin improved on a YoY basis from -0.4% to 4.6%. Any improvement in this metric is a good sign, but Q2&#39;s operating margin is still far below the company&#39;s historical peaks. Sky-high inventory levels are still a big problem weighing on profitability. The problem continues mounting since inventory balance was around $350 million higher sequentially. During the Q2 earnings call, the management explained this increase by the necessity to address spiking demand from data centers. However, nothing was said about $4.5 billion worth of inventory that was accumulated during 2022-2023.</p><p>With such a warning trend, there is a significant risk AMD&#39;s warehouses might become full of obsolete products over these nine quarters because of the rapid pace of innovation in the industry. To understand how deep the inventory problem is for AMD, please look at the below chart. Nvidia generates more than four times higher quarterly revenue, but its inventory levels are comparable to AMD.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b248179a74fcfb5a1870cb5958f8a69e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"473\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>Another bearish indicator is weakening momentum. If we look at AMD&#39;s SA Quant Momentum page, we see that the momentum is certainly cooling down. More recent timeframes demonstrate much weaker dynamics compared to older timeframes. To me, this is a clear indication that an unjustified hype around AMD is cooling down.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd994d4dd666ffc6b9e125fb13c710b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>Recent developments were mostly positive, but it is difficult to consider them as strong catalysts for the stock price. In July, the company announced that it acquires Silo AI to improve its offerings in enterprise AI solutions. The deal size of $665 million does not look significant compared to AMD&#39;s scale, therefore at the moment it is difficult to say that benefits or risks are game-changing in this case.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f41f390e7d6ef9944600673d93172ece\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>During the Computex 2024 event, AMD revealed its roadmap for Instinct accelerators, including the new MI325X accelerator, which is expected to be available by the end of 2024. AMD is well-known for its consistent commitment to innovation and rolling out improvements to its stellar products, but comparisons with Nvidia are inevitable.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b5723401b015834a8bf4c00e99acb9fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>The company&#39;s R&amp;D spending looks incomparable, which puts AMD in a weaker position against Nvidia in terms of innovation. Apart from incomparable TTM free cash flow of these two companies ($2 billion generated by AMD versus $29 billion generated by NVDA), accumulated financial resources also cannot be compared. That said, investors should not forget that AMD competes against a true monster from the financial strength perspective.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c55b160498f6f7452eeba45f785f66ad\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"210\"/></p><p>Compiled by the author</p><p></p><p>Last but not least, there is a remarkable fact that during this earnings season. Big Tech companies mentioned NVDA and its GPUs much more frequently than they mentioned AMD or any of its products. I have analyzed all the latest earnings transcripts from the biggest and most technologically advanced U.S. companies, and it was eleven NVDA mentions versus only one AMD mention. I think that this fact clearly indicates the positioning of these two semiconductor companies in the AI race, where Nvidia is miles ahead.</p><h2 id=\"id_1604547003\">Valuation analysis</h2><p>Based on the peer analysis of valuation ratios, AMD appears to be one of the most expensive semiconductor stocks now. Its TTM P/E ratio is by far the highest compared to other prominent chip companies, and its forward P/E ratio is more than two times higher compared to Nvidia&#39;s. Its forward EV/EBITDA ratio is also extremely high compared to rivals. Considering the company&#39;s fundamental weaknesses I have outlined in fundamental analysis, I consider AMD&#39;s valuation ratios as unjustified.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0bd9dc1320756c313a608d9245d3df0d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>SA</p><p></p><p>However, AMD&#39;s valuation ratios have been historically elevated and looking at them might not be enough for a fair view. Therefore, I am running a discounted cash flow (&#34;DCF&#34;) model with a 9.3% WACC. For revenue between FY 2024-2028 I rely on consensus estimates because projected growth rates appear realistic to me. I incorporate a 9.08% TTM levered FCF margin and expect that the FCF margin will expand by one percentage point as the top line grows. For the terminal value (&#34;TV&#34;) calculation, I implement a generous 6% constant growth rate because of the robust AI secular shift in the industry. According to SA, there are 1.62 billion AMD shares outstanding.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/708901c8d52c34a0cfa7492f329cd5e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p>Calculated by the author</p><p></p><p>Even with an extremely high 6% constant growth rate, AMD&#39;s shares are substantially overvalued. According to my DCF model, the stock&#39;s fair price is around $85. This is 36% lower than the current share price, which means there is a substantial downside potential.</p><h2 id=\"id_1412675954\">Mitigating factors</h2><p>Nvidia releases its Q2 earnings on August 28, and it is the event that will not only affect Nvidia&#39;s stock price. As an undisputed leader in the GPU field, Nvidia is a trendsetter, and its earnings are likely to affect share prices of its closest competitors as well. Should NVDA deliver another staggering quarter, this will likely lead to a new rally in all prominent semiconductor names, including AMD. This will not be a fundamental reason for AMD&#39;s rally, but still, I would better warn readers that such an opportunity exists.</p><p>Another prominent player is semiconductor industry, Intel (INTC) is struggling as it has released weak Q2 report and guidance. Since AMD and Intel are also fierce rivals, if Intel&#39;s struggles continue for longer, it might be good for AMD from the strategic perspective. Gaining market share in semiconductors ex-GPUs (for example, CPUs) might be quite a positive development and catalyst for AMD.</p><h2 id=\"id_4016151496\">Conclusion</h2><p>AMD continues to desperately pursue Nvidia in the AI revolution in GPUs, but it appears that the technological gap is unlikely to narrow in the foreseeable future. The valuation is still very unattractive, especially considering AMD&#39;s weak strategic positioning against its biggest rival.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Ample Room For Further Decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Ample Room For Further Decline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-06 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710748-amd-stock-q2-ample-room-for-further-decline><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710748-amd-stock-q2-ample-room-for-further-decline\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4543":"AI","AMD":"美国超微公司","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710748-amd-stock-q2-ample-room-for-further-decline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2457119010","content_text":"AMD stock has declined by 13% in the last three months, with more negatives than positives surrounding the company.AMD's generous premium over its fair value does not seem sustainable, given its strategic weaknesses in GPUs compared to Nvidia and mounting inventory problems.AMD's valuation ratios are unjustified, with a DCF model indicating a fair price of $85, 36% lower than the current share price.Most prominent clients find Nvidia's products more appealing than AMD's, as evidenced by Big Tech companies mentioning Nvidia's GPUs eleven times more frequently than AMD's in their latest earnings transcripts, indicating Nvidia's superior position in the AI race.JHVEPhotoIntroductionI had a Sell-rated thesis about Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) in May, and the stock has declined by 13% over the last three months, compared to +2.5% from the S&P 500 (SP500). AMD delivered its Q2 report recently, which had some positive moments, but I still think that there are more negatives than positives around AMD. There is not much I can say optimistic about the company's segments apart from Data Centers enjoying strong AI momentum. On the other hand, I think that AMD's potential in AI is quite limited as it competes with Nvidia (NVDA), which is miles ahead.The sky-high inventory problem continues mounting as the balance grew by around $350 million sequentially, further increasing risks of inventory impairment and recording multi-billion P&L charges in the foreseeable future. The stock currently trades around 40% cheaper than its March 2024 peaks, but my analysis suggests that valuation is far from being attractive. All these unfavorable factors mean that I am inclined to reiterate a \"Sell\" rating for AMD. The extent of overvaluation, which is 36%, makes me think that there is still a lot of space to fall further. Therefore, it appears to be risky to buy or even hold this falling knife (stock price deteriorated by 6% over the last five trading days).Fundamental analysisAMD released its latest 10-Q report on July 31, and I want to focus on it first. Revenue grew by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2024. Revenue growth was quite uneven across the company's segments. Data Center segment continues capitalizing on massive AI tailwinds as its sales more than doubled YoY in Q2. The segment's growth was mostly driven by higher sales of AMD Instinct GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs.The Client segment ('PC') also demonstrated strong 50% YoY growth in Q2. On the other hand, I am not as optimistic about the Client segment because comparative figures were quite low. For example, the segment generated $2.2 billion revenue in Q2 2022 meaning that sales still did not recover compared to historical highs.AMD's 10-Q (Q2 2024)Two other segments disappointed significantly, in my opinion. Gaming revenue more than halved due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue. Embedded revenue also decreased sharply on a YoY basis in Q2, as customers continued normalizing their inventory levels.The operating margin improved on a YoY basis from -0.4% to 4.6%. Any improvement in this metric is a good sign, but Q2's operating margin is still far below the company's historical peaks. Sky-high inventory levels are still a big problem weighing on profitability. The problem continues mounting since inventory balance was around $350 million higher sequentially. During the Q2 earnings call, the management explained this increase by the necessity to address spiking demand from data centers. However, nothing was said about $4.5 billion worth of inventory that was accumulated during 2022-2023.With such a warning trend, there is a significant risk AMD's warehouses might become full of obsolete products over these nine quarters because of the rapid pace of innovation in the industry. To understand how deep the inventory problem is for AMD, please look at the below chart. Nvidia generates more than four times higher quarterly revenue, but its inventory levels are comparable to AMD.Data by YChartsAnother bearish indicator is weakening momentum. If we look at AMD's SA Quant Momentum page, we see that the momentum is certainly cooling down. More recent timeframes demonstrate much weaker dynamics compared to older timeframes. To me, this is a clear indication that an unjustified hype around AMD is cooling down.SARecent developments were mostly positive, but it is difficult to consider them as strong catalysts for the stock price. In July, the company announced that it acquires Silo AI to improve its offerings in enterprise AI solutions. The deal size of $665 million does not look significant compared to AMD's scale, therefore at the moment it is difficult to say that benefits or risks are game-changing in this case.Data by YChartsDuring the Computex 2024 event, AMD revealed its roadmap for Instinct accelerators, including the new MI325X accelerator, which is expected to be available by the end of 2024. AMD is well-known for its consistent commitment to innovation and rolling out improvements to its stellar products, but comparisons with Nvidia are inevitable.SAThe company's R&D spending looks incomparable, which puts AMD in a weaker position against Nvidia in terms of innovation. Apart from incomparable TTM free cash flow of these two companies ($2 billion generated by AMD versus $29 billion generated by NVDA), accumulated financial resources also cannot be compared. That said, investors should not forget that AMD competes against a true monster from the financial strength perspective.Compiled by the authorLast but not least, there is a remarkable fact that during this earnings season. Big Tech companies mentioned NVDA and its GPUs much more frequently than they mentioned AMD or any of its products. I have analyzed all the latest earnings transcripts from the biggest and most technologically advanced U.S. companies, and it was eleven NVDA mentions versus only one AMD mention. I think that this fact clearly indicates the positioning of these two semiconductor companies in the AI race, where Nvidia is miles ahead.Valuation analysisBased on the peer analysis of valuation ratios, AMD appears to be one of the most expensive semiconductor stocks now. Its TTM P/E ratio is by far the highest compared to other prominent chip companies, and its forward P/E ratio is more than two times higher compared to Nvidia's. Its forward EV/EBITDA ratio is also extremely high compared to rivals. Considering the company's fundamental weaknesses I have outlined in fundamental analysis, I consider AMD's valuation ratios as unjustified.SAHowever, AMD's valuation ratios have been historically elevated and looking at them might not be enough for a fair view. Therefore, I am running a discounted cash flow (\"DCF\") model with a 9.3% WACC. For revenue between FY 2024-2028 I rely on consensus estimates because projected growth rates appear realistic to me. I incorporate a 9.08% TTM levered FCF margin and expect that the FCF margin will expand by one percentage point as the top line grows. For the terminal value (\"TV\") calculation, I implement a generous 6% constant growth rate because of the robust AI secular shift in the industry. According to SA, there are 1.62 billion AMD shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorEven with an extremely high 6% constant growth rate, AMD's shares are substantially overvalued. According to my DCF model, the stock's fair price is around $85. This is 36% lower than the current share price, which means there is a substantial downside potential.Mitigating factorsNvidia releases its Q2 earnings on August 28, and it is the event that will not only affect Nvidia's stock price. As an undisputed leader in the GPU field, Nvidia is a trendsetter, and its earnings are likely to affect share prices of its closest competitors as well. Should NVDA deliver another staggering quarter, this will likely lead to a new rally in all prominent semiconductor names, including AMD. This will not be a fundamental reason for AMD's rally, but still, I would better warn readers that such an opportunity exists.Another prominent player is semiconductor industry, Intel (INTC) is struggling as it has released weak Q2 report and guidance. Since AMD and Intel are also fierce rivals, if Intel's struggles continue for longer, it might be good for AMD from the strategic perspective. Gaining market share in semiconductors ex-GPUs (for example, CPUs) might be quite a positive development and catalyst for AMD.ConclusionAMD continues to desperately pursue Nvidia in the AI revolution in GPUs, but it appears that the technological gap is unlikely to narrow in the foreseeable future. The valuation is still very unattractive, especially considering AMD's weak strategic positioning against its biggest rival.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319003742466224,"gmtCreate":1718895207578,"gmtModify":1718895377243,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;[Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319003742466224","repostId":"2444055984","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2444055984","pubTimestamp":1718894170,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2444055984?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-06-20 22:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444055984","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.Furth","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.</p></li><li><p>At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.</p></li><li><p>Further, the macro environment is deteriorating, with recession risks rising, which should negatively affect a cyclical company like Nvidia.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e266fe86c663b9c3cdda0b5f8e602dc7\" alt=\"jetcityimage\" title=\"jetcityimage\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><h2 id=\"id_844493039\">NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold</h2><p>Investors who bought Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock last year or even recently this year have significant paper gains, as NVDA is up 174% YTD, and an astonishing 3547% over the last 5 years. Nvidia is now $3.33T market cap company, the largest company by market cap in the world.</p><p>Here is the NVDA chart.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e8db7fdae785a966b2c8b7e35d93a443\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold stock at this point, as I will explain in this article, and thus the investors who currently own NVDA with hefty paper capital gains have to eventually convert these paper gains into cash - they have to sell Nvidia.</p><p>Otherwise, depending on the timing of the purchase and the average purchase price, these paper gains are likely to significantly shrink, or potentially turn into paper losses.</p><p>Specifically, as I will explain, NVDA stock is likely in a bubble based on valuations, and thus the bubble will eventually burst. It&#39;s correct that NVDA had an amazing sales growth over the last 12 months, but NVDA sales are heavily concentrated in only two customers, the mysterious Customer A and Customer B, and this is a major risk to future sales growth if one of these customers pulls back. Most importantly, the NVDA sales growth is expected to significantly slow down, even not assuming the risk associated with the concentrated sales, and assuming that the broad economy will not enter a recession.</p><p>Thus, NVDA is currently valued as if the growth over the last 12 months will continue indefinitely, which is an irrational assumption. The economy is slowing down, slipping towards a recession, which means that the demand from Customers A and B will slow down, and the broad demand for NVDA chips will also slow down, likely producing negative YOY sales growth over the next few quarters. The semiconductor market is cyclical, and the GenAI theme will prove to be cyclical as well.</p><h2 id=\"id_2378348616\">Technical considerations</h2><p>First, let&#39;s look at the technical considerations, since the bubbles are irrational by definition, dominated by the positive feedback traders or trend followers who buy strictly based on charts.</p><p>On March 8, NVDA had a sharp intraday reversal, which in-fact pointed to the potential top, and the March 8 price was the peak - until the NVDA Q1 earnings announcement and the stock split announcement, which triggered another leg higher.</p><p>The stock split does not have any fundamental significance, and yet, NVDA continued to spike higher after the stock split announcement. The retail investor was particularly excited about the stock split. In my opinion, this is the key marking of the top.</p><p>On March 11th, I wrote that NVDA was potentially topping, based on technical analysis, and assigned the HOLD rating, to evaluate the price pattern. Obviously, March 8 was not the top. The price did correct below the 50dma, but rebounded strongly after the stock split.</p><p>Technically, there is no indication that NVDA is at the top now - the price keeps climbing, as the chart below shows.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ce414244ee67aa3c097427efdddfac8\" alt=\"Barchart\" title=\"Barchart\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\"/><span>Barchart</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1855740321\">Fundamental considerations</h2><p>With respect to valuation, it&#39;s widely known that NVDA is extremely expensive.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>GAAP PE ttm is at 76</p></li><li><p>forward GAAP PE is at 56</p></li><li><p>PS ratio is at 40</p></li></ul><p>These are very expensive valuations. Broadcom (AVGO) is the closest peer, and it similarly overvalued based on PE ratios, but significantly cheaper based on PS ratio at 19, which points that NVDA&#39;s profit margins are unsustainably high.</p><p>In fact, NVDA has EBIT margins of around 60%, which will be difficult to maintain, as the demand for its chips slows and the competition in the sector heats up, and this points to slower earnings growth.</p><p>High valuations can be justified if sales growth is expected to continue to be very high. However, the sales growth is slowing. Here is the fact, NVDA had 18% revenue growth QoQ for FY25 Q1, where the total revenue was $26B. NVDA guides that FY25 Q2 total revenue will be $28B, which is only 7.7% QoQ growth. Thus, the revenue growth is slowing.</p><p>Thus, you have a situation where the profit margins are unsustainably high, and where the revenue growth is slowing. The combination of these two variables is negative for earnings growth.</p><p>In addition, NVDA has a very concentrated sales with only two customers representing 24% of the total revenue. Here is the warning from the recent NVDA 10Q statement:</p><blockquote><p>Sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 13% of total revenue and sales to a second direct customer, Customer B, represented 11% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, both of which were attributable to the Compute &amp; Networking segment. There was no direct customer that represented 10% or more of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3506160230\">Macro considerations</h2><p>None of the assumptions above assumes that the US economy could significantly slow, and potentially slip into a recession. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and the potential recession could have a negative effect on NVDA sales.</p><p>Based on the recent data, the US economy is slowing, and slipping towards a recession. Yet, NVDA stock keeps climbing.</p><h2 id=\"id_3271725306\">Implications</h2><p>Here are the facts.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The NVDA stock is very expensive, based on the valuation multiples.</p></li><li><p>Yet, the revenue growth rate is slowing.</p></li><li><p>The macro environment is deteriorating, the recession risks are rising.</p></li></ul><p>In this situation, where the macro risks and the firm-specific risks are rising, while the price is also rising fueled by the retail investor excitement about the stock split, it makes sense to consider converting the paper gains to cash.</p><p>Now, bear in mind that trading around the bubble is very difficult. Isaac Newton got burned trading around the South Sea Bubble. He took the profit in the South Sea stock, but the stock kept climbing, so he got back near the top. As the price kept falling, he kept buying the &#34;dip&#34;, yet the price kept falling. He lost most of his fortune and proclaimed:</p><blockquote><p>I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Paper Gains Need To Be Converted To Cash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-20 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670711040.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4575":"芯片概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699997-nvidia-the-paper-gains-need-to-be-converted-to-cash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2444055984","content_text":"Nvidia stock has been rising due to the retail investor excitement about the stock split.At the same time, the sales growth is expected to slow, while the valuation multiples point to the bubble.Further, the macro environment is deteriorating, with recession risks rising, which should negatively affect a cyclical company like Nvidia.jetcityimageNVDA is not a long-term buy and holdInvestors who bought Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock last year or even recently this year have significant paper gains, as NVDA is up 174% YTD, and an astonishing 3547% over the last 5 years. Nvidia is now $3.33T market cap company, the largest company by market cap in the world.Here is the NVDA chart.Data by YChartsHowever, NVDA is not a long-term buy and hold stock at this point, as I will explain in this article, and thus the investors who currently own NVDA with hefty paper capital gains have to eventually convert these paper gains into cash - they have to sell Nvidia.Otherwise, depending on the timing of the purchase and the average purchase price, these paper gains are likely to significantly shrink, or potentially turn into paper losses.Specifically, as I will explain, NVDA stock is likely in a bubble based on valuations, and thus the bubble will eventually burst. It's correct that NVDA had an amazing sales growth over the last 12 months, but NVDA sales are heavily concentrated in only two customers, the mysterious Customer A and Customer B, and this is a major risk to future sales growth if one of these customers pulls back. Most importantly, the NVDA sales growth is expected to significantly slow down, even not assuming the risk associated with the concentrated sales, and assuming that the broad economy will not enter a recession.Thus, NVDA is currently valued as if the growth over the last 12 months will continue indefinitely, which is an irrational assumption. The economy is slowing down, slipping towards a recession, which means that the demand from Customers A and B will slow down, and the broad demand for NVDA chips will also slow down, likely producing negative YOY sales growth over the next few quarters. The semiconductor market is cyclical, and the GenAI theme will prove to be cyclical as well.Technical considerationsFirst, let's look at the technical considerations, since the bubbles are irrational by definition, dominated by the positive feedback traders or trend followers who buy strictly based on charts.On March 8, NVDA had a sharp intraday reversal, which in-fact pointed to the potential top, and the March 8 price was the peak - until the NVDA Q1 earnings announcement and the stock split announcement, which triggered another leg higher.The stock split does not have any fundamental significance, and yet, NVDA continued to spike higher after the stock split announcement. The retail investor was particularly excited about the stock split. In my opinion, this is the key marking of the top.On March 11th, I wrote that NVDA was potentially topping, based on technical analysis, and assigned the HOLD rating, to evaluate the price pattern. Obviously, March 8 was not the top. The price did correct below the 50dma, but rebounded strongly after the stock split.Technically, there is no indication that NVDA is at the top now - the price keeps climbing, as the chart below shows.BarchartFundamental considerationsWith respect to valuation, it's widely known that NVDA is extremely expensive.GAAP PE ttm is at 76forward GAAP PE is at 56PS ratio is at 40These are very expensive valuations. Broadcom (AVGO) is the closest peer, and it similarly overvalued based on PE ratios, but significantly cheaper based on PS ratio at 19, which points that NVDA's profit margins are unsustainably high.In fact, NVDA has EBIT margins of around 60%, which will be difficult to maintain, as the demand for its chips slows and the competition in the sector heats up, and this points to slower earnings growth.High valuations can be justified if sales growth is expected to continue to be very high. However, the sales growth is slowing. Here is the fact, NVDA had 18% revenue growth QoQ for FY25 Q1, where the total revenue was $26B. NVDA guides that FY25 Q2 total revenue will be $28B, which is only 7.7% QoQ growth. Thus, the revenue growth is slowing.Thus, you have a situation where the profit margins are unsustainably high, and where the revenue growth is slowing. The combination of these two variables is negative for earnings growth.In addition, NVDA has a very concentrated sales with only two customers representing 24% of the total revenue. Here is the warning from the recent NVDA 10Q statement:Sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 13% of total revenue and sales to a second direct customer, Customer B, represented 11% of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, both of which were attributable to the Compute & Networking segment. There was no direct customer that represented 10% or more of total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.Macro considerationsNone of the assumptions above assumes that the US economy could significantly slow, and potentially slip into a recession. The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical and the potential recession could have a negative effect on NVDA sales.Based on the recent data, the US economy is slowing, and slipping towards a recession. Yet, NVDA stock keeps climbing.ImplicationsHere are the facts.The NVDA stock is very expensive, based on the valuation multiples.Yet, the revenue growth rate is slowing.The macro environment is deteriorating, the recession risks are rising.In this situation, where the macro risks and the firm-specific risks are rising, while the price is also rising fueled by the retail investor excitement about the stock split, it makes sense to consider converting the paper gains to cash.Now, bear in mind that trading around the bubble is very difficult. Isaac Newton got burned trading around the South Sea Bubble. He took the profit in the South Sea stock, but the stock kept climbing, so he got back near the top. As the price kept falling, he kept buying the \"dip\", yet the price kept falling. He lost most of his fortune and proclaimed:I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343990447882384,"gmtCreate":1725006664179,"gmtModify":1725006667888,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343990447882384","repostId":"2463213734","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2463213734","pubTimestamp":1724996367,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463213734?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-30 13:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463213734","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquis","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.</p></li><li><p>We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.</p></li><li><p>We&#39;re also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.</p></li><li><p>Investor confidence in AMD&#39;s AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD&#39;s real AI capabilities and Wall Street&#39;s AI expectations.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54d72c9c9a3e29350ec8e0b6945b60ae\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"304\"/></p><p>Sunny</p><p></p><p><strong>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that &#34;AI systems are our number one strategic priority.&#34; We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.</p><p>The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street&#39;s AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don&#39;t think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.</p><p>The devil is in the details, so let&#39;s discuss them.</p><p>The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).</p><p>With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD&#39;s access to ZT engineers to &#34;allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.&#34; This doesn&#39;t seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft&#39;s dissatisfaction with AMD&#39;s AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,</p><blockquote><p>&#34;ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.&#34;</p></blockquote><p>At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.</p><p>We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD&#39;s products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.</p><p>Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia&#39;s H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street&#39;s expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.</p><p>What&#39;s important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they&#39;re on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.</p><p>The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA&#39;s stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don&#39;t see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD&#39;s AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock&#39;s valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.</p><h2 id=\"id_675990054\">Valuation &amp; Word on Wall Street</h2><p>In our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We&#39;ve seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.</p><p>The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street&#39;s high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD&#39;s future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It&#39;s more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company&#39;s growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.</p><p>The following chart outlines AMD&#39;s valuation against the peer group average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9e7f7a8672b56054338755fcd4ee354b\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><p>Wall Street&#39;s sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.</p><p>The following charts outline AMD&#39;s sell-side ratings and price targets.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a04d8542dce8de62e27e9bf1cc376641\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p>TechStockPros</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3652890362\">What to do with the stock</h2><p>We remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Advanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdvanced Micro Devices: ZT Acquisition Is Bad News - Still Sell\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 13:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","AMD":"美国超微公司","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4529":"IDC概念","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718002-advanced-micro-devices-zt-acquisition-is-bad-news-still-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2463213734","content_text":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. announced its $4.9B acquisition of ZT Systems as a strategic move in the AI market, but we see things differently.We think AMD holds a higher risk profile after the acquisition inflated AI-related growth expectations further with little fundamental basis.We're also seeing multiple expansions for AMD, making the stock expensive relative to semi-peers and increasing the risk of a price correction.Investor confidence in AMD's AI growth is misplaced; the acquisition will likely only delay a bigger (disappointing) confrontation between AMD's real AI capabilities and Wall Street's AI expectations.SunnyAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) announced its acquisition of ZT Systems, a privately held server builder, for $4.9B earlier this month. AMD CEO Lisa Su emphasized in an interview with Reuters that \"AI systems are our number one strategic priority.\" We maintain our sell rating on AMD and recommend investors trim on the mini rally created by the acquisition news.The market is taking the acquisition as a positive for AMD in its uphill battle to compete with Wall Street's AI darling, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). We don't think this is the case. In fact, we think the acquisition actually further proves that our concerns about AMD have not been misplaced.The devil is in the details, so let's discuss them.The company announced news of its acquisition on August 19th, intending to close the $4.9B deal in mid-2025 by paying 75% in cash and the rest in stock in one of the biggest IT deals of the year. ZT generates around $10B in annual revenue, with the bulk of that coming from its manufacturing unit. AMD intends to sell that off once the deal is over, so as not to put itself in a position to compete with the likes of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL).With that in mind, this acquisition really comes down to AMD's access to ZT engineers to \"allow AMD to more quickly test and roll out its latest AI graphics processing units (GPUs) at the scale of cloud computing giants such as Microsoft.\" This doesn't seem too surprising considering the rumors about Microsoft's dissatisfaction with AMD's AI GPU products and software that began to stir earlier this year; AMD needs the help. ZT has around 2,5000 employees, of which AMD will keep 1,000 on hand. CEO Lisa Su further confirmed this rosy perspective of the acquisition, noting,\"ZT adds world-class systems design and rack-scale solutions expertise that will significantly strengthen our data center AI systems and customer enablement capabilities.\"At face value, AMD is paying $4.9B for a few hundred engineers.We think this is a strategic move by AMD, but not for the reasons the market expects, i.e., not for the technological advantage ZT could provide but to mitigate high AI expectations. ZT is a customer of AMD, and, in turn, ZT is sitting on AMD AI GPU inventory that they cannot get off their hands. That would cause them to stop placing orders at the company and signal the weaker demand for AMD's products to the entire market. Why does ZT have AMD inventory that they cannot get rid of? Simply put customers are continuing to choose the industry go-to, Nvidia, over AMD since there is no more shortage.Industry research confirms that lead times for Nvidia's H100 are now nonexistent. We believe this was a two-bird, one-stone strategic acquisition for AMD to buy ZT along with its inventory and simultaneously pitch it as a step forward in their seemingly losing race against NVDA. This is a win-win for AMD and ZT; AMD gets ahead of the bad news of the inventory pile-up that would visibly show AMD is lagging Wall Street's expectations, and ZT gets a bunch of inventory off its hands and $4.9B.What's important to keep in mind here is that AMD is guiding AI GPU sales to exceed $4.5B this year, revised up from $4B this quarter but still substantially lower than whisper numbers expecting $6B in sales. This means AMD has big shoes to fill in terms of guidance. This acquisition makes it look like they're on track when it is only prolonging a disappointment until mid-next year because AMD will likely struggle to meet, let alone beat, whisper numbers.The importance of whisper numbers in the AI game cannot be emphasized enough. Part of why NVDA's stock is dropping today is because the company only came in line with whisper numbers on July quarter sales and guidance reported in 2Q24 results. It achieved $30B in sales in line with whisper numbers for $30B and guiding for $32.5B, at the lower end range of the whisper numbers. We don't see a material upside surprise to consensus numbers for AMD's AI business this year. So, we continue to believe the stock's valuation and market expectations put it at a higher risk profile to underperform, even more so now after news of the acquisition.Valuation & Word on Wall StreetIn our opinion, AMD is unjustifiably expensive relative to the peer group. We've seen multiple expansion for AMD on P/E and EV/Sales ratios since our last note, which was in early August. On a P/E basis, the stock is now trading at 42.9x C2024 compared to a previous ratio of 38.9x and a group average of 33.1x. Looking at the EV/Sales ratio, we see more of the same. The stock is trading at 9.4x EV/C2024 Sales compared to an old ratio of 8.2x and a group average of 7.7x.The higher P/E and EV/Sales ratios over the past month showcase a couple of things. The biggest one is that AMD is becoming more expensive relative to its earnings and sales, as well as its historical and industry averages. This poses a big risk for AMD because an increase in these ratios without corresponding earnings/sales growth means the stock is overvalued. Thus, it is at risk of a price correction when AMD fails to show material upside to Wall Street's high AI expectations. We think investor confidence in AMD's future AI growth potential increased in light of the ZT acquisition, although there is little fundamental basis for this engineer acquisition boosting top-line growth. It's more of a band-aid solution to reignite investor faith in the company's growth trajectory as rival NVDA strides ahead.The following chart outlines AMD's valuation against the peer group average.TechStockProsWall Street's sentiment on AMD remains unchanged since our downgrade note earlier this month. Of the 50 analysts covering the stock, 41 are buy-rated, and the remaining are hold-rated. Interestingly, the potential upside from sell-side price targets is now lower than it was. The stock is priced at $144 per share with a median sell-side price target of $190 and a mean of $187 with a potential 28-30% upside.The following charts outline AMD's sell-side ratings and price targets.TechStockProsWhat to do with the stockWe remain sell-rated on AMD and recommend investors count profits and exit the stock. Management is guiding for total sales in Q3 to grow 15% Q/Q to $6.7B, slightly beating consensus at $6.61B for the first time in five quarters. This is mainly supported by faster Q/Q growth in its data center sales on the MI300X AI GPU ramp. We think the market is getting ahead of itself with AI-related sales expectations for AMD, and the acquisition only made the hype worse.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334136701460720,"gmtCreate":1722609643312,"gmtModify":1722609647035,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/334136701460720","repostId":"2456286685","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456286685","pubTimestamp":1722609000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2456286685?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-02 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456286685","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Ell","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world&#39;s largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is in a Bubble and the AI Theme Is “Overhyped” - Elliott Management\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-02 22:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4588":"碎股","BK4529":"IDC概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4133230-nvidia-is-in-a-bubble-and-the-ai-theme-is-overhyped-elliott-management","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2456286685","content_text":"Hedge fund Elliott Management said that Nvidia is in a bubble as the artificial intelligence theme pushing its share price is overhyped.In a letter to its clients published by The Financial Times, Elliott Management said that the technology mega-caps, such as Nidia, are in a “bubble land” and that the hedge fund is skeptical that these companies will continue to purchase Nvidia’s (NVDA) graphic processing units in such huge volumes.Elliot said that many AI applications are not ready for “prime time” and that many of the expected uses are “never going to be cost-efficient; are never going to actually work right” and that they “will take up too much energy or will prove to be untrustworthy.”The chipmaker stocks have suffered some losses due to concerns about heavy -- tens of billions of dollars -- AI spending for infrastructure.Nvidia Corp. is down 4.8% today so far, after a 110% year-to-date gain. The stock is also down 9.23% from a month ago. Nvidia briefly became the world's largest company with a market cap of more than $3.3T.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352025370411096,"gmtCreate":1726982348711,"gmtModify":1726988736645,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Brain-damaged articles","listText":"Brain-damaged articles","text":"Brain-damaged articles","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/352025370411096","repostId":"2469511719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2469511719","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726962870,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2469511719?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-22 07:54","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2469511719","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\". The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent  -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSorry, the Fed Can't Save Us From a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 07:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street commentary around this week&#39;s Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: &#34;The Wizard of Oz.&#34;</p><p>The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can&#39;t do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks&#39; initial reaction to Wednesday&#39;s cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don&#39;t know how this movie ends.</p><p>Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday&#39;s move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/87332df9d93b9dea02c121a049013aad\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.</p><p>Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow&#39;s gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day&#39;s rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.</p><p>To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.</p><p>Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late &#39;90s don&#39;t exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.</p><p>In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, &#34;Don&#39;t Panic About the Credit Market,&#34; in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.</p><p>&#34;Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,&#34; he wrote. &#34;The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.&#34;</p><p>Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007&#39;s rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.</p><p>The chairman of the Fed doesn&#39;t have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that &#34;the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.&#34;</p><p>His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&amp;P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn&#39;t headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.</p><p>Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren&#39;t very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.</p><p>There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China&#39;s alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.</p><p>We&#39;re not in Kansas any more.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2469511719","content_text":"Wall Street commentary around this week's Fed rate cut could have filled a very long and boring book, but much of what you need to know about its effect on the stock market can be found in a movie rarely linked with monetary policy: \"The Wizard of Oz.\"The great and powerful man behind the central bank curtain, Jerome Powell, really can't do as much as people think to keep their portfolios from shriveling if the wheels are already starting to come off the economy. Stocks' initial reaction to Wednesday's cut was exuberant. That often proves to be a head fake, though -- we still don't know how this movie ends.Take the start of the rate-cutting cycle in 2007 -- one that coincidentally began on the same day of the year, the same starting federal-funds rate, and was for an identical amount, half a percent (50 basis points) -- as Wednesday's move. The effect was electric: The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its largest gain in more than four years, rising 336 points, the equivalent of about 1,000 points today. Lehman Brothers shares were among the top performers, surging 10%.But, as we know now, stocks were just three weeks from their bull-market peak, a recession would begin in January 2008, and Lehman would collapse less than a year later in the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy. By that time, the Fed had cut rates six more times -- moves of 25, 25, 75, 50, 75 and 25 basis points, in that order. The moves took rates to 2%, their lowest in nearly four years. In the two months following the Lehman panic, the Fed made three more steep cuts, slashing rates to zero (technically a range of 0% to 0.25%) for the first time ever.Stocks surged then too, with the benchmark S&P 500 jumping 4.7%. The Dow's gain of 360 points would be nearly 1,700 today. Yet they erased all of that day's rally in less than a week and would go on to shed another quarter of their value before bottoming in March 2009.To be clear, the conditions that existed during the housing crisis were extreme, sparking the worst U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression. Extreme events are by definition rare, and most predictions of doom are false alarms. More money is lost bracing for bear markets than in them, even when they really happen.Yet there have been 22 bear markets in the past century for all sorts of reasons. Economists who dismiss the possibility of a tumble just because specific excesses such as toxic subprime loans as in the mid-aughts or ludicrous dot-com valuations akin to the late '90s don't exist today could wind up with egg on their faces. Like generals fighting the last war, they rely too much on their lived experience.In a classic of the genre, then Bear Stearns chief economist David Malpass wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed, \"Don't Panic About the Credit Market,\" in August 2007 after a two-month retreat in stock prices.\"Unlike the 1998 seizure in credit markets to which many are now drawing comparisons, reservoirs of global liquidity are full to overflowing, not empty as they were that year,\" he wrote. \"The deep 1997-1998 Asian crisis has been replaced with an all-cylinder boom.\"Despite five subsequent Fed rate cuts, his employer was among the first high-profile casualties of the credit meltdown. Two months after September 2007's rate-cutting cycle had begun, the mood already had darkened, yet a Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists that month put the odds of any U.S. recession in the following 12 months at just one-third.The chairman of the Fed doesn't have a magic wand to levitate an economy that is already stumbling or a stock market about to do the same. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin noted recently that \"the trajectory of growth is a more important driver for stocks than the speed of rate cuts.\"His research shows that, if the economy has already been headed into a recession before the first rate cut, then the median path of the S&P 500 has been to lose around 14% of its value in the coming year. If it wasn't headed into a recession, then it is the inverse. Lower rates most certainly matter for bond investors. They might only blunt an already-unfolding swoon for stocks, though, since they take so long to filter through to companies and consumers.Claims that the U.S. economy could soon contract aren't very convincing at the moment, and a sharp pullback of a third or more in stocks would be unusual unless the economy stalls. That helps explain why stocks are near record highs and the usual signs of market caution so subdued. But so does the misguided belief that Fed cuts are themselves a reason to remain calm and keep buying.There are smart people on the fringes -- they usually are at this stage -- warning about excesses in private credit and commercial real estate or the effect of China's alarming slowdown on the world economy. U.S. stocks have rarely been so expensive, concentrated or dependent on a single theme -- the promise of AI. And government indebtedness around the world has never been as high, making the response to the next recession trickier.We're not in Kansas any more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":"2466270404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347588520194368,"gmtCreate":1725884011157,"gmtModify":1725884014240,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense","listText":"Nonsense","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/347588520194368","repostId":"2466562131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466562131","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1725881673,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466562131?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-09 19:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466562131","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1.5% to $104.39 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia’s Dominance Could Be Ending, Citi Says. The Stock Rises Anyway\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-09 19:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.</p><p>The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc31cf26753a43584c0a2691896657fe\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"830\"/></p><p>Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.</p><p>The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don&#39;t expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index, even though they&#39;re predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.</p><p>&#34;Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,&#34; a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. &#34;A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.&#34;</p><p>They added that the selloff after Nvidia&#39;s solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant&#39;s status as an AI darling is fading.</p><p>Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&amp;P 500 ticked up 0.6%.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BGHQF631.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BVYPNV92.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00B3PB1722.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) INC","IE00B42XCP33.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466562131","content_text":"Nvidia looked set to pare back some of its recent losses on Monday, but analysts at Citi are warning that the artificial intelligence-fueled winning streak that powered the chip maker to a trillion-dollar valuation is coming to an end.The stock climbed 1% to $104 in premarket trading. On Friday, it had dropped 4.1% to cap off a nightmarish week.Nvidia shares have tumbled 20% over the past two weeks, dragged down by worries that the AI investing craze that has powered the market higher ever since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 could soon be about to fizzle out.The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon start slashing interest rates has also accelerated a rotation out of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 group of megacap tech stocks. Citi analysts said in a research note on Friday that they don't expect Nvidia to carry on being a massive driver of returns for the benchmark S&P 500 index, even though they're predicting that its profit growth will remain strong.\"Our sense is that Nvidia is becoming just another large-cap growth stock,\" a team led by U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote. \"A simple look at the deceleration in rate of forward guidance increases suggests that its most profound performance and fundamental impacts on index price action may be behind it.\"They added that the selloff after Nvidia's solid, but not spectacular, earnings is a sign that the semiconductor giant's status as an AI darling is fading.Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices rose 1% ahead of the opening bell. Broadcom climbed 0.9%, and Qualcomm was up 1.2%. Futures for the S&P 500 ticked up 0.6%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365986993258656,"gmtCreate":1730352866695,"gmtModify":1730352870520,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low level&nbsp;","listText":"Low level&nbsp;","text":"Low level","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/365986993258656","repostId":"1107275997","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107275997","pubTimestamp":1730347534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107275997?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-10-31 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107275997","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2924817183\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Nvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.</p></li><li><p>The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.</p></li><li><p>Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.</p></li><li><p>This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.</p></li><li><p>The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1cd66fb76fb9c3656779aa6ac145d6d\" alt=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" title=\"Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USA</span></p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.</p><p>Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia&#39;s CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_564023179\">Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flag</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings uncertainty.</p><p><strong>Nvidia&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3d9b95d53a545ead96236dc2753a978\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings estimate.</span></p><p></p><p>A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia&#39;s EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.</p><p><strong>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/03b8bf26eecf70de5756a2eee12c0149\" alt=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"181\"/><span>AMD&#39;s forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.</p><p><strong>Google&#39;s EPS estimate</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3212c7fcc43d67625db4c2f74eab4f61\" alt=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" title=\"Google forward EPS estimate.\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"185\"/><span>Google forward EPS estimate.</span></p><p>Alphabet&#39;s EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.</p><p>Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.</p><h3 id=\"id_3471036033\">Do not underestimate AMD and other competitors</h3><p>In the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD&#39;s estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD&#39;s AI chips.</p><p>Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.</p><p>Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.</p><h3 id=\"id_3652408428\">Beating expectations is not enough</h3><p>Nvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c9ce05bf9b215bf61b6798cc66b3c596\" alt=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" title=\"Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"246\"/><span>Nvidia&#39;s earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.</span></p><p>Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.</p><h3 id=\"id_1561503892\">Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocks</h3><p>The huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet&#39;s lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/555184544ef3b6a44f67c8e8fd587927\" alt=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" title=\"Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.\" tg-width=\"974\" tg-height=\"397\"/><span>Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet&#39;s EPS and forward PE.</span></p><p>There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.</p><h2 id=\"id_83402496\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia&#39;s forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.</p><p>It is highly likely that Nvidia&#39;s market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Forward Earnings Looking More Uncertain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4731124-nvidia-forward-earnings-looking-more-uncertain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107275997","content_text":"SummaryNvidia Corporation’s forward EPS estimates are one of the most uncertain among the Magnificent 7 stocks and among other chip stocks.The highest EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.29 which is 4 times the lowest EPS estimate of $1.81.Other big tech stocks have a variation of 20% to 60% between low and high EPS estimates.This shows the uncertainty regarding future market share and margins for Nvidia as AMD, Intel, and other tech players launch their own AI chips.The recent bull run has made NVDA stock expensive while the forward earnings are uncertain, which can cause a major correction in the stock.Nvidia headquarters in Santa Clara, California, USANvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been one of the best performers over the last two years since the first major large language models, or LLMs, came to the market and launched a major AI-driven bull run. However, there is a major red flag in Nvidia due to uncertainty in forward earnings. There is a very high variation between the bull and bear cases for the stock. Most of this variation comes due to uncertainty in future market share and the ability of Nvidia to retain its juicy margins. The company has been able to report over 70% gross margins for the past few quarters. In the previous article, it was mentioned that the demand side for AI chips can face challenges as hyperscalers optimize their AI investments.Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are putting their best efforts into launching better AI chips. Being the underdog in this segment, they would be ready to earn lower margins, making the overall segment more competitive. Other big tech companies have been working on their own AI chips, and they have the talent and resources to deliver some excellent products. Nvidia's CUDA moat is still strong, but the uncertainty in forward earnings should be a warning for investors. At the same time, the stock is trading at close to 30 times the consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027, which is one of the highest within the tech sector. According to this metric, Nvidia is 75% pricier than Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), which can cause a short-term correction in Nvidia stock.Uncertain forward earnings are a big red flagNvidia's has delivered great results over the last few quarters, which has helped the stock deliver over 130% price growth in YTD. However, future earnings are becoming more uncertain as different analysts have very different forward outlooks for the company. We might disagree over the views of some analysts, but the huge variation in future EPS estimates is a clear warning sign for investors. As shown below, none of the other big tech stocks have anything close to Nvidia's forward earnings uncertainty.Nvidia's EPS estimateNvidia's forward earnings estimate.A total of 28 analysts have given their estimates for Nvidia's EPS for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The lowest EPS estimate is $1.81 while the highest estimate is $7.29. Hence, the highest forward EPS estimate is 4X that of the low estimate. All the analysts have done a very in-depth analysis of the company, and yet, we see a massive variation in future earnings estimates. For most of the other tech stocks, the variation in low and high estimates is only 20%-60%. Higher forward EPS uncertainty should make the stock cheaper, but on the contrary, Nvidia is trading at one of the highest forward P/E ratios.AMD's EPS estimateAMD's forward EPS estimate.AMD's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is 60% more than low estimate.Google's EPS estimateGoogle forward EPS estimate.Alphabet's EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Dec 2026 shows the high EPS estimate is only 23% more than low estimate. This clearly shows the certainty in forward earnings for Alphabet.Higher uncertainty is a sign that analysts are not sure about the ability of Nvidia to retain its current margins as competitive pressure increases over the coming years.Do not underestimate AMD and other competitorsIn the recent earnings call, AMD increased its 2024 revenue forecast for AI chips to $5 billion from a previous forecast of $4.5 billion. Over this year, AMD's estimate for AI chip revenue has steadily increased. Back in late 2023, AMD forecasted that it could deliver $2 billion in revenue for AI chips in 2024. It is highly likely that AMD could deliver over $10-$12 billion in total AI revenue for 2025. At this scale, it could be close to 10% of Nvidia's revenue base from its Data Center segment. New products and aggressive pricing can certainly increase the attraction of AMD's AI chips.Intel is facing an existential crisis as it continues to face headwinds in its foundry business and more questions from investors. The company is leaning on its Gaudi 3 AI chips to improve the sentiment towards the stock. Being an underdog in this segment, Intel could undersell Nvidia by a significant amount.Big tech cloud companies like Amazon have been building their own AI chips and have reported that the price/performance metric is 50% cheaper than Nvidia. AI chips are one of the biggest expenses for hyperscalers and if they can reduce the cost of this item, it will help in improving their competitive position and boosting their own margins. It should be noted that Nvidia had earlier mentioned that it receives close to 40%-45% of total Data Center revenue from these hyperscalers.Beating expectations is not enoughNvidia stock hit close to $140 in June 2024. Since then, the stock has seen big swings with 30% correction and has now returned to earlier peak. This is even though the company has been able to easily beat the earnings estimate for the past two quarters.Nvidia's earnings estimate in the upcoming quarter.Even a very good earnings result does not guarantee bullish sentiment for the stock because of the current price. Nvidia would need to present a strong argument to sustain the bullish momentum. As mentioned above, there is already a massive variation in the forward earnings estimate for the company. The bear case could easily take over if the company does not meet the earnings expectations or does not beat the expectations by a big enough margin.Nvidia stock is pricier than other stocksThe huge variation in forward earnings is already a big red flag for the stock. But even the most bullish EPS estimate for Nvidia will continue to give a pricey valuation multiple for the company. The highest EPS estimate for Nvidia for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $7.2 which gives the forward P/E multiple of close to 20. On the other hand, the lowest EPS estimate for Alphabet for the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 is $9.05 giving the stock a forward P/E multiple of less than 19. Hence, even the most bullish case for Nvidia makes the stock pricier than Alphabet's lowest EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. A lot can change in the next 2 years, and I believe Nvidia stock does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.Comparison of Nvidia and Alphabet's EPS and forward PE.There are other options within the AI industry, and Nvidia is expensive at the current price. Investors looking for a more certain forward earnings trend could look at Alphabet, TSMC, and other alternatives.Investor TakeawayNvidia's forward earnings projections have the highest variation among the big tech stocks. The EPS projection for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 varies from $1.8 to $7.2. Hence, the high case is 4X the low estimate. For most of the other tech companies, the high case is 20% to 50% higher than the low case. Higher variation shows the uncertainty in future earnings as the company faces intense competition from AMD, Intel, and other big tech companies.It is highly likely that Nvidia's market share will contract over the coming quarters, which will also squeeze the margins. The forward P/E multiple for 2 fiscal years ahead for Nvidia is 75% higher than Alphabet. The stock is quite expensive, and even an earnings beat might not be enough to deliver a further bullish run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353935568728112,"gmtCreate":1727418140095,"gmtModify":1727418991512,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","listText":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","text":"Sucker, did you see MU earning？can't believe such low level article was here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/353935568728112","repostId":"2470763038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2470763038","pubTimestamp":1727417054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2470763038?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-27 14:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470763038","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metric","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.</p></li><li><p>The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.</p></li><li><p>Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.</p></li><li><p>We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.</p></li><li><p>The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6144f6f01bec9d39bca22c82ac595a7e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>BING-JHEN HONG</p><p></p><p><strong>Nvidia Corporation&#39;s</strong> (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.</p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia&#39;s revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margin.</p><p>The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.</p><h3 id=\"id_1545308843\">Looking beyond Nvidia</h3><p>To gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1a13411b5084427c3632c39a5fbe23c5\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia filings.</em></p><p>In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia&#39;s CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia&#39;s Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2816e736c09bcd38c332ab7890f3f69e\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>The big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.</p><p>As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon&#39;s AWS in the last few quarters.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa128a33a23c119a6ac23fca333ad946\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"174\"/></p><p>Amazon Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source:</em> <em>Amazon filings.</em></p><p>AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft&#39;s Cloud.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ba02c9463c9150cafa7fa0e8623f6a60\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>There has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.</p><p>Nvidia&#39;s management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.</p><h3 id=\"id_2287063006\">Margin pressure from competition</h3><p>Nvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia&#39;s revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD&#39;s current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia&#39;s margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.</p><p>There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8028fe9a0699d26b09f7c11bd55fcb30\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"178\"/></p><p>Nvidia Filings</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia&#39;s revenue base in different regions. Source:</em> <em>Nvidia Filings.</em></p><p>One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.</p><h3 id=\"id_602071535\">EPS growth trend does not look very promising</h3><p>Beyond 2025, Nvidia&#39;s EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/714b0fc57fa927f9765d267618c38599\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"186\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source:</em> <em>Seeking Alpha.</em></p><p>It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0a890ba7bca293417214bdff2d3fe16e\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"391\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p></p><p><em>Figure: Nvidia and AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source:</em> <em>YCharts</em></p><p>AMD&#39;s EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.</p><p>Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_3652055779\">Investor Takeaway</h2><p>Nvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia&#39;s revenue and margins estimate.</p><p>Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is Showing Major Red Flags On The Demand Side\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 14:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX 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HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4723524-nvidia-showing-major-red-flags-demand-side","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2470763038","content_text":"The performance of Nvidia Corporation’s stock after the recent earnings result is a strong warning to the bullish investors.The stock had a 20% dip despite beating estimates on almost all major metrics.Close to 50% of the data center revenue comes from large cloud providers, who are getting warning signals from Wall Street regarding their capex trajectory.We have not seen a big revenue or margin improvement from cloud providers in the last few earnings, which can force them to rein in their AI spending.The stock is trading at over 26 times forward P/E for the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, and any margin pressure would reduce the upside potential in the stock.BING-JHEN HONGNvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) recent earnings result is a big warning for bullish investors and analysts. The company was able to beat estimates on revenue and EPS while also giving strong forward guidance. The revenue surprise was $1.29 billion, which was enormous and showed a strong trajectory in this metric. However, Wall Street ended up correcting the stock by close to 20%. Since the dip, Nvidia has recouped most of the losses and is again close to the $125 level. But we can see several red signals that are flashing and need to be closely looked to gauge the long-term returns potential of the stock. In our previous article, it was mentioned that we would see margin pressure in Nvidia.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO mentioned that close to 50% of the data center revenue came from large cloud providers like Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Google Cloud (GOOGL) (GOOG), and Microsoft Azure (MSFT). Most of the recent growth in Nvidia's revenue has been driven by these cloud companies trying to ramp up their AI services. But this has come at a cost of massive capex for even the larger companies. Most of these cloud companies have themselves seen a correction after recent earnings as Wall Street is worried over their capex trajectory. On the other hand, these large cloud providers are not showing a big improvement in their revenue and margin trajectory. If these large players scale back their investment over the coming quarters, we could see a big headwind for Nvidia's revenue and margin.The forward EPS growth projection of Nvidia are not strong. For the fiscal year ending Jan 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is of $4.71 which gives the stock a forward P/E of 26.2. Any margin decline could lead to big EPS downward revisions. Competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is heating up, and the company is continuously increasing its AI revenue estimate almost every quarter. While Nvidia has a big lead, it is highly likely that it will see strong margin headwinds as other players ramp up their AI chips. Looking at this macro picture, Nvidia stock does not seem to be cheap, and it has a limited upside potential.Looking beyond NvidiaTo gauge the growth potential of Nvidia, we need to look at the recent performance of some of its biggest clients. Most of the top management of large cloud providers have been very optimistic about their AI services, but Wall Street is having second doubts about their future projection. We have already seen this in the recent earnings season, where big cloud players have not performed well.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's CFO remarks in Q1 earnings. Source: Nvidia filings.In the Q1 earnings, Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress mentioned that large cloud providers contributed in the mid-40s as a percentage of Nvidia's Data Center revenue base. If these large cloud providers see a strong backlash from Wall Street due to their AI spending, it will inevitably hurt Nvidia.YChartsFigure: Stock performance of top cloud services. Source: YChartsThe big three cloud providers have not fared well in this earnings season. All of them are significantly lagging the broader market. They have company-specific issues, but one of the common bearish arguments for them is the massive capex spending on AI, which has not delivered an improvement in margin and revenue trajectory.As an example, we can look at the revenue trend of Amazon's AWS in the last few quarters.Amazon FilingsFigure: AWS revenue trend in the last few quarters. Source: Amazon filings.AWS has been spending heavily on AI in the hopes of launching new AI services and attract more clients. However, this has not significantly increased the revenue trajectory for the company. A similar trend can be seen in Google Cloud and Microsoft's Cloud.YChartsFigure: Quarterly capex of large cloud providers. Source: YChartsThere has been a strong inflection in capex of the big three cloud providers in the last few quarters, and each of them is now estimating close to $50 billion in capex for this fiscal years. A bulk of the incremental spending has gone to building the AI services and buying the expensive chips from Nvidia. However, if we do not see a material improvement in the margins and revenue of these cloud players, Wall Street could turn very bearish towards these investments.Nvidia's management is betting that the AI demand will continue to increase over the coming quarters. However, this is not guaranteed when we look at the macro picture and the performance of some of its major clients.Margin pressure from competitionNvidia will inevitably face margin pressure as more competitive chips are launched in the market. AMD is projecting AI chip revenue of $4.5 billion for 2024. This estimate has continued to increase over the last few quarters. At the end of 2023, AMD was estimating AI chip revenue of only $2 billion. It is possible that the final results for 2024 will easily cross $5 billion level. This is still a small fraction of Nvidia's revenue base, but we can see a clear trend. If AMD's current growth trajectory continues in 2025, we could see a major headwind for Nvidia's margin. Despite the higher market share of Nvidia, Wall Street could become increasingly cautious about the ability of the company to retain its juicy margins.There has been a sequential decline in US revenue in the recent quarter. The US revenue of Nvidia was $13.5 billion in Q1 2025 while it was $13 billion in Q2 2025.Nvidia FilingsFigure: Nvidia's revenue base in different regions. Source: Nvidia Filings.One possible explanation for this sequential decline is that the big tech clients have started reassessing their AI spend. It is certainly possible that this QoQ decline continues for the next few quarters, which will be a revenue headwind for the company.EPS growth trend does not look very promisingBeyond 2025, Nvidia's EPS growth trajectory starts looking more modest. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027 is $4.71 which is equal to 17.9% YoY growth.Seeking AlphaFigure: EPS estimate for next few years. Source: Seeking Alpha.It should also be noted that there is a huge difference between the low and high EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. The low EPS estimate is $1.81 while the high estimate is $7.26 which is 4 times the low estimate. Very few big tech companies have this level of difference in forward EPS estimate. This gives an additional risk to the stock. Nvidia is trading at 26 times the consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. This is a high number for a company which is facing several headwinds.YChartsFigure: Nvidia and AMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead. Source: YChartsAMD's EPS estimate for 2 fiscal years ahead is $7.4 which gives the stock a forward P/E valuation (FY 2026) of 21.5. This is 20% lower than the 26.2 forward P/E valuation of Nvidia for fiscal year ending Jan 2027. I also believe that Nvidia has a higher risk of EPS down revisions as the margin pressure continues to build on the company for the next few quarters.Nvidia is at a large revenue base, with quarterly revenue of close to $30 billion. It is facing competitive, regulatory and client-specific headwinds. On the other hand, the upside is limited, which changes the risk/reward dynamics of the stock.Investor TakeawayNvidia delivered a great earnings result, beating both the revenue and earnings estimate. However, the stock corrected by close to 20% post-earnings, which is a strong red flag for the company. Despite making up most of the losses, the stock is still below the pre-earnings high of close to $130. Nvidia gets a bulk of its Data Center revenue from big cloud players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. All of them have seen their stocks underperform significantly after the recent earnings as Wall Street gets more cautious over the massive capex trajectory of these companies. There is a strong possibility that the management of these tech companies will need to downscale their AI spending, which should hurt Nvidia's revenue and margins estimate.Nvidia is already facing a margin pressure, and it is difficult to see how the company can retain its market share and margins in the upcoming quarters. AMD will likely deliver over $5 billion in AI chip sales for 2024 and there is a strong growth momentum for its chips. Nvidia stock is also not cheap as it is trading at over 26 times the EPS estimate for the fiscal year ending January 2027 compared to only 21.5 for AMD. The upside is limited while the company faces massive headwinds, which makes the stock a Sell at the current price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350073235079400,"gmtCreate":1726495007688,"gmtModify":1726495011489,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The writer knows nothing","listText":"The writer knows nothing","text":"The writer knows nothing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350073235079400","repostId":"2467155168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2467155168","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1726486731,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2467155168?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-16 19:38","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467155168","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stoc","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock Rally Pauses. A New Generation of Data Centers Is Arriving\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-16 19:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week&#39;s rally.</p><p>Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ecfa4e89d443499439628aa77d8bc83\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"621\"/></p><p>Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.</p><p>Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia&#39;s next-generation Blackwell chips</p><p>&#34;Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,&#34; wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. &#34;They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.&#34;</p><p>However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.</p><p>Groq&#39;s chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BKPKM429.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0985489474.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-C SGD-H","LU0823434740.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU0878866978.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-QD SGD-H","BK4097":"系统软件","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU0433182093.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AS-C SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU0068578508.USD":"First Eagle Amundi International Cl AU-C USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467155168","content_text":"Nvidia was slipping early on Monday as the chip maker looks set to give back some gains from the previous week's rally.Nvidia shares were down 1.44% at $117.39 in premarket trading on Monday. The stock closed broadly flat on Friday but has risen 12% over the past five trading sessions.Nvidia has gained from renewed confidence in demand for its chips, partly fueled by cloud-computing and software company Oracle which has talked of companies spending $100 billion each on developing their artificial-intelligence models.Oracle has outlined plans to build an AI supercomputer that will be powered by 131,072 of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips\"Nvidia is at the epicenter of all things related and is the pioneer for artificial intelligence infrastructure,\" wrote Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, in an emailed comment. \"They have been and will continue to be the beneficiary of this movement.\"However, there are signs that investors in big data centers are diversifying what type of chips they intend to use. Chip start-up Groq said recently it has joined with oil producer Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, to build a giant data center in Saudi Arabia to offer AI computing power to local companies.Groq's chips are focused on inference, the process of generating answers or results from AI models. It has claimed its language-processing units are better suited for powering AI language applications than GPUs of the type Nvidia makes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346113790402824,"gmtCreate":1725527210283,"gmtModify":1725527214532,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","listText":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","text":"May NVDA investors sue Bloomberg on the false news? Bloomberg sucks! Whom we can trust?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/346113790402824","repostId":"1186916268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186916268","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725523255,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186916268?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-05 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186916268","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. $NVIDIA Corp$  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Tesla Shares Rise Nearly 1% in Premarket Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-05 16:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/daa7d365f5b381eaf0e7d5417b4513d5\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"273\"/></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.</p><p>&#34;We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.&#34;</p><p>Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia.</p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla&#39;s AI team&#39;s account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EV maker&#39;s CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NVDA":"英伟达","NVDL":"GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186916268","content_text":"Nvidia rose 1.1% in premarket trading on Thursday; Tesla rose 1.2%. NVIDIA Corp  did not receive a U.S. Justice Department subpoena, a spokesperson said in a statement on Wednesday.\"We have inquired with the U.S. Department of Justice and have not been subpoenaed. Nonetheless, we are happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.\"Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday the Justice Department had sent a subpoena related to a potential antitrust investigation, which would signal an escalation in the probe. Bloomberg News said subpoenas had been sent to other companies in addition to Nvidia. Tesla Motors  plans to launch FSD (Full Self-Driving) in China early next year, a slight delay from previous plans.Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, Tesla's AI team's account, @Tesla_AI, said on social media platform X today.The EV maker's CEO, Elon Musk, said on an earnings call in July that Tesla would likely receive regulatory approval to launch FSD in other markets, including Europe and China, by the end of this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345806160150816,"gmtCreate":1725430725198,"gmtModify":1725430728876,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"may drop? &nbsp;Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"may drop? Why we need waste time to read this article? [Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/345806160150816","repostId":"2464351176","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336533544542304,"gmtCreate":1723197597064,"gmtModify":1723197601225,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","listText":"Nonsense&nbsp;","text":"Nonsense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336533544542304","repostId":"1158112570","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330865534062888,"gmtCreate":1721783388788,"gmtModify":1721783393302,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"[Weak]&nbsp; [Weak]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"[Weak] [Weak]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330865534062888","repostId":"2453076978","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2453076978","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1721744979,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2453076978?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-23 22:29","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2453076978","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low - like now. The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immedia","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom - and 22 Other Stocks Most Likely to Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-23 22:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.</p></blockquote><p>The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$(NVDA)$</a>, Super Micro Computer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$(SMCI)$</a> and Broadcom <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$(AVGO)$</a>.</p><p>The market indicator, known as the &#34;U.S. Crash Confidence Index,&#34; was created 40 years ago by Yale University&#39;s Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, &#34;What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?&#34; As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It&#39;s a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/14f3c700dfbae93bb368924565bad0d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>It&#39;s worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.</p><p>I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&amp;P 500&#39;s SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.</p><h3 id=\"id_3634368013\">Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicator</h3><p>The U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.</p><p>The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department&#39;s Office of Financial Research. Entitled &#34;Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,&#34; the study began circulating in June in academic circles.</p><p>The researchers found that a survey respondent&#39;s belief in a crash&#39;s probability was heavily influenced by &#34;rare, extreme events&#34; having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent&#39;s immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.</p><h3 id=\"id_939044424\">Emotions and beliefs</h3><blockquote><p>The probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500.</p></blockquote><p>The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors&#39; emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.</p><p>But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock&#39;s crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&amp;P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it&#39;s 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.</p><p>The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it&#39;s a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0372715130f84a1516bb0f45741544cd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","OEX":"标普100","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","AVGO":"博通","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0957808578.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","SPY":"标普500ETF","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453076978","content_text":"The higher a stock soars, the more likely it is to plunge.The U.S. stock market is likely to be a below-average performer over the next 24 months, according to an obscure sentiment index - as are 25 high-flying, popular U.S. stocks including Nvidia $(NVDA)$, Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ and Broadcom $(AVGO)$.The market indicator, known as the \"U.S. Crash Confidence Index,\" was created 40 years ago by Yale University's Robert Shiller and is now maintained by the Yale School of Management. Each month a group of individual and institutional investors are asked, \"What do you think is the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S.?\" As with other sentiment measures, this one has contrarian significance: It's a bad sign when investors believe the probability of a crash is particularly low.It's worth noting that Yale reports the index in terms of the percentage of respondents who think the probability of a crash is less than 10%, so higher readings in the chart mean investors think the likelihood of a crash is lower - and vice versa. The six-month moving average of the institutional-investor index recently reached its highest level of the past 15 years, and the individual-investor index reached its second-highest level.I analyzed the data back to 2001, which is when Yale began updating the index on a monthly basis. On average, the monthly readings are inversely correlated with the S&P 500's SPX total return over the subsequent 24 months - meaning that higher index readings are correlated with below-average returns, and vice versa. The correlation is significant at the 95% confidence level for the institutional index and the 93% confidence level for the individual index.Why the Crash Confidence Index is a contrarian indicatorThe U.S. Crash Confidence Index is a valuable contrarian indicator because stock-market investors become more or less bullish for reasons totally unrelated to the stock market. Since irrational bullishness (as opposed to rational bullishness) will cause stocks on average to be overvalued, it follows that the market tends to struggle in the wake of a widespread belief that a crash is unlikely.The role of emotions in the U.S. Crash Confidence Index has been documented in a new study by Shiller, Yale professor William Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim of the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Financial Research. Entitled \"Emotions and Subjective Crash Beliefs,\" the study began circulating in June in academic circles.The researchers found that a survey respondent's belief in a crash's probability was heavily influenced by \"rare, extreme events\" having nothing to do with the stock market. When an earthquake had recently occurred in the respondent's immediate vicinity, for example, belief in a stock-market crash was more likely than for another respondent who had not experienced a nearby earthquake. Similarly, if a winning lottery ticket had been sold from a nearby store, the respondent was less likely to believe a crash was probable than another person for whom that was not the case.Emotions and beliefsThe probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500.The contrarian indicator based on the Crash Confidence Index is not itself forecasting that a crash will occur, but simply that the next two years will experience below-average returns. The index reflects investors' emotions and subjective beliefs, which are far different than the objective factors that have a statistically significant ability to forecast a heightened probability of a crash. As I discussed in a recent column, a recent study of those objective factors implies that the odds of a market-wide crash are below average right now.But certain individual stocks are still vulnerable to crashing, defined as a 40% drop over the next two years. A recent study found that the probability of a stock's crash increases along with the extent to which the trailing two-year return is ahead of the S&P 500. When this margin of outperformance is 100 percentage points, for example, the probability of a subsequent crash is close to 50%. When it's 150 points or more, a crash becomes nearly certain.The table below lists the 25 stocks in the S&P 1500 index that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two years by more than 200 percentage points, according to FactSet data. Not all of them will crash, of course, but it's a good bet that an above-average number of them will lose at least 40% over the next two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":330316783112224,"gmtCreate":1721649530209,"gmtModify":1721649533536,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Yes buy the dip&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> Yes buy the dip&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Yes buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/330316783112224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328417973158096,"gmtCreate":1721194585439,"gmtModify":1721194593914,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nonesense","listText":"Nonesense","text":"Nonesense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/328417973158096","repostId":"1169733376","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169733376","pubTimestamp":1721187074,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169733376?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-07-17 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Time To Sell (Downgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169733376","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySince I upgraded Apple stock to \"Buy\", it has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 4x over the past quarter.What has driven the stock's rapid growth in recent years and recent m","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_2481361300\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Since I upgraded Apple stock to &#34;Buy&#34;, it has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 by nearly 4x over the past quarter.</p></li><li><p>What has driven the stock&#39;s rapid growth in recent years and recent months, was, in my opinion, mainly the expectation of a new product upgrade cycle fueled by AI.</p></li><li><p>Today, concerns about iPhone sales growth lagging behind the market, stretched valuations, and potential market correction led me to the decision to downgrade Apple stock.</p></li><li><p>Realistically, I&#39;d expect AAPL to trade at ~30x earnings by FY2025, which suggests the potential for a correction of ~5%.</p></li><li><p>I currently see no margin of safety for Apple stock, so I downgrade AAPL to &#34;Sell&#34;, looking forward to seeing the company&#39;s Q3 FY2024 earnings release on August 1.</p></li><li><p>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Beyond the Wall Investing get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »</p></li></ul><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3188349759\">My Thesis Upgrade</h2><p>I initiated coverage on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in January 2024 with a &#34;Sell&#34; rating when each share was trading at around $191. However, I upgraded my rating to &#34;Buy&#34; in mid-April 2024 when the stock fell to about $174 per share. Since then, I haven&#39;t touched my bullish rating anyhow, so during the past quarter, Apple stock has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) (SPY) by nearly 4x:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9699003fecc4ce86f0a3b25c0d0246b4\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of AAPL\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of AAPL\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, Oakoff&#39;s coverage of AAPL</span></p><p></p><p>What has driven the stock&#39;s rapid growth in recent years and recent months, was, in my opinion, mainly the expectation of a new product upgrade cycle fueled by the integration of AI into new devices. However, I believe that the current price has exceeded a justifiable valuation. Therefore, I&#39;ve decided to lower my rating to &#34;Sell&#34; again, as I expect the coming months to be quite challenging for Apple&#39;s stock price performance.</p><h2 id=\"id_2256327510\">My Reasoning</h2><p>In fiscal Q2 2024, Apple reported revenue of ~$90.7 billion, which was a YoY decline of 4% and a QoQ decline of 24% (the latter is typical for Q2 due to poorer seasonality). Despite both YoY and QoQ declines, AAPL&#39;s revenue was slightly above the consensus guidance of $90.5 billion. What surprised me was the GAAP gross margin improving to 46.6% from 45.9% in the prior quarter and 44.3% in the year-ago quarter. The GAAP EBIT margin decreased to 30.7% from 33.8% in the prior quarter but increased from 29.9% in Q2 FY2023, so EPS was $1.53 compared to $1.52 in the prior year, beating the consensus estimate of ~$1.50.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5dcfcbf5db0a13f5f233d5ef9f5b0b13\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, AAPL</span></p><p></p><p>As can be seen from the cash flow statement, Apple made approximately $57.5 billion in net income for the fiscal year H1 2024, which is 6.3% less than a year ago, but it was able to bring out around $62.5 billion in operating cash flow due to a bit smaller negative impact of accounts payable compared to the same period last year. Thanks to a doubling of cash flows from investing activities (on a YoY basis) and a slightly lower outflow from financial activities, the amount of cash on the company&#39;s balance sheet has increased significantly, amounting to $67.15 billion in cash and short- and long-term investments (+20% YoY), according to Seeking Alpha Premium data. In terms of free cash flow generation, Apple&#39;s Q2 has remained approximately at the same level seen in the last 5 years (adjusted for seasonality). On a TTM basis, we see that AAPL&#39;s FCF is growing in the long term, now exceeding $100 billion, which is positive, but it hasn&#39;t grown beyond this mark since 2022.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f434db6181523cb7a32f97cab58cc077\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"491\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p>Such an enormous FCF should have been utilized somehow, and so Apple has actively repurchased its shares from the open market and maintained stable, albeit modest, dividends. In April 2024, the company boosted its buyback program by $110 billion, which was a bigger increase compared to the previous 2 years ($90 billion each). They also raised the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, up from last year&#39;s increase of 4% to $0.24 per share in April 2023 and an increase of 5% from the previous year to $0.23 per share in April 2022. Thus, the long-term trend of decreasing shares outstanding continued, and the company&#39;s dividend yield, due to the rise in the stock prices, became even lower:</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/00c9487698228c7ee197260b061a0b0f\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p>In general, I can&#39;t call Apple&#39;s second fiscal quarter results outstanding. They weren&#39;t groundbreaking; Apple&#39;s Q2 financials were probably not the main reason for the recovery in the stock price, even though Apple managed to beat analysts&#39; consensus estimates. The main reason was the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), where important changes were announced regarding the development of artificial intelligence in the company&#39;s devices. They introduced the Apple Intelligence initiative, with the idea to build generative AI into the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. This would now include updates to its operating systems like iOS 18, iPadOS, and macOS Sequoia with integrated AI capabilities of Apple. Enhanced features include improved customizations, satellite messaging, and new functions for AirPods Pro as well as Apple Watch. It&#39;s important to note that Siri has also been enhanced by Apple with more contextual relevance and personal intelligence capable of tasks such as responding to emails or making unique emojis in the iMessage app. This AI-realted strategic move from Apple, although quite late compared to other Big Tech companies, should trigger a new wave of iPhone sales according to many Wall Street analysts after WWDC, setting it up for EPS growth over the next 2 years driven by its strong hardware and services demand.</p><p>I believe the company has a great opportunity to monetize its AI initiatives, especially with the continued growth in service revenue, which was a lifeline in the second quarter. However, I believe the company is still a long way from realizing the full potential benefits, and the recent market reaction seems overly optimistic. Even the majority of bullish analysts at Wall Street&#39;s major investment banks haven&#39;t been as bullish as recent price movements suggest; Apple&#39;s stock has significantly outperformed analysts&#39; average price targets. The highest estimate is now $275 per share, which represents a further 19.5% increase from the current price, but this remains the most optimistic scenario within a broader range. So given the already bullish outlook on its growth prospects, the stock price seems &#34;overheated&#34; to me.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/267f85249bdb5137e5cfaeb28481e616\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL stock, Wall Street Ratings\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL stock, Wall Street Ratings\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, AAPL stock, Wall Street Ratings</span></p><p></p><p>I&#39;m also concerned by the fact that the actual number of iPhones sold (&#34;sell-through&#34;) in recent months has lagged behind the average growth rate of the market. UBS reported on this at the end of June (proprietary source, June 2024), citing data from May that showed a 2% year-on-year decline in iPhone sales, marking the 5th consecutive month of weakness.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d4cd580f3e02a3e35553d9dafb8f636\" alt=\"UBS, proprietary source, June 2024\" title=\"UBS, proprietary source, June 2024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\"/><span>UBS, proprietary source, June 2024</span></p><p></p><p>To date, the latest (June-dated) data confirms Apple&#39;s continued weakness compared to the broader market.</p><blockquote><p></p><p><em>UBS reported that preliminary June sell-through data provided by Counterpoint indicates that the Apple’s iPhone unit sell-through was up roughly 1% last month, which compares to global smartphone growth of about 4%. For the June quarter, preliminary data indicate iPhone unit sell-through was 45M units, or down 1% year-over-year, compared to 6% growth for the market, according to the analyst, who keeps a Neutral rating and $190 price target on Apple shares.</em></p><p>Source: TipRanks [July 12, 2024]</p></blockquote><p>Although the share of service revenue is growing, it remains a secondary source of sales for Apple. Although the artificial intelligence initiatives are important milestones in the company&#39;s development, the actual iPhone sales growth compared to the market has not lived up to the expectations raised after the &#34;AI announcement&#34;. Perhaps anticipation is building for the release of the iPhone 16. I don&#39;t want to draw any definitive conclusions here, but the current sales momentum suggests caution rather than maintaining the overly bullish sentiment we had immediately after WWDC. Meanwhile, over the past six months, Wall Street analysts have continued to raise their estimates for EPS significantly, seemingly overlooking potential risks.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/627abd1c640e6abc52fc15809ae50682\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL&#39;s EPS revisions\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, AAPL&#39;s EPS revisions\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, AAPL&#39;s EPS revisions</span></p><p></p><p>Analysts predict an 11% annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS over the next 5 years. However, I&#39;m concerned that this expected growth rate would only value the company at 20x net earnings by FY2028. Of course, by the end of FY2028, this multiplier will likely be higher. Currently, the forwarding P/E ratio stands at about 35x net earnings (the end of 2024). This is close to Apple&#39;s limit, historically speaking. Therefore, in 5 years, maintaining the buyback and assuming stable FCF and EPS growth based on today&#39;s consensus, we can most likely expect a 25-30x P/E multiple for Apple - this gives a potential price of $307/sh. In other words: In 5 years, the stock may expand by 33% based on quite optimistic (the current consensus) expectations, which would mean a CAGR of about 5.9% per annum. Many A2-rated bonds (based on Moody&#39;s rating) yield much more today, so I don&#39;t think this projected growth rate is justified. I see no margin of safety in Apple&#39;s current valuation.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4cfe1e4cd3c0cec7c6bf4ed1b0beda61\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><p></p><p>According to analysts, today&#39;s 35x in FWD P/E may decrease to ~31.6x by the end of 2025. I believe that, in reality, the P/E multiple should drop to at least 30 times earnings. With the current consensus EPS estimate at $7.29, this would imply a stock price of ~$218, which is ~5% lower than today&#39;s price, highlighting the lack of a safety margin in Apple stock, in my opinion.</p><p>As for the technical analysis, I also see some potential short-term problems for Apple. <strong>Firstly</strong>, by September, the current strength in terms of seasonality is likely to diminish, if the past 10 years of statistics are something to rely on. <strong>Secondly</strong>, the stock price&#39;s distance from its 52-week exponential moving average has increased rapidly, reaching peaks seen in previous expansions. In the previous expansion, the stock rose from the bottom to a local peak over about 6 months, gaining 59.5%. Today, we see that Apple stock has grown by 40.5% in just 3 months, which is very fast. This makes the price action look very extended, and a pullback to the moving averages seems like the most logical outcome.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb7bae3d737f4c9e09af0c92f738487c\" alt=\"TrendSpider Software, AAPL stock, Oakoff&#39;s notes\" title=\"TrendSpider Software, AAPL stock, Oakoff&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\"/><span>TrendSpider Software, AAPL stock, Oakoff&#39;s notes</span></p><p></p><p>Thus, based on my findings, I think it should be logical to downgrade Apple stock to &#34;Sell&#34; today.</p><h2 id=\"id_3044906777\">Upside Risks To My Thesis</h2><p>First, one of the major upside risks to my today&#39;s downgrade is that I don&#39;t agree with the common view, which encompasses the judgments and thoughts of those who have been following Apple for a longer time and more closely than me. Therefore, there are chances that I may be absolutely wrong about something obvious to the bulls.</p><p>Second, I find Argus Research&#39;s latest report (proprietary source, dated June 2024) to contain a whole lot of bullish arguments that appear very solid to me and could easily negate my conclusions if the company fulfills what is anticipated:</p><blockquote><p></p><p><em>We believe on-device Gen AI has the potential to drive the next big round of iPhone sales. Timing of product readiness and in particular customer acceptance is uncertain. Apple recently reported solid fiscal 2Q24 results, with record service revenue partly offsetting lower iPhone sales. Currently, Apple is on track for EPS growth over the next two years. This reflects strong appetite for Apple&#39;s hardware, and its brand loyalty in turn spurs demand for Apple&#39;s services, including iTunes, App Store, and iCloud.</em></p><p><em>Apple has entered the generative AI space after being on the sidelines for the first year and a half after ChatGPT&#39;s launch in November 2022. By mainly positioning these new enhancements on its highest-end existing iPhone and mainly on future models, the company seeks to drive a robust new upgrade cycle in 2025 and beyond.</em></p><p><em>We believe the current environment represents an opportunity to establish or dollar-average into positions in AAPL.</em></p></blockquote><p>Third, my conclusions about the company&#39;s valuation are somewhat subjective, as I&#39;m basing them on historical norms and what I, personally, think is fair for Apple stock. The market&#39;s assessments of the company&#39;s prospects and the prices investors are willing to pay may differ significantly from my opinion and conclusions. It&#39;s important to note that numerous funds and other institutional investors hold significant stakes in Apple - their reluctance to sell or trim positions could contribute to the continued upward momentum of the stock amid the absence of strong selling pressure.</p><h2 id=\"id_2355272574\">Your Takeaway</h2><p>Despite the recent rise in Apple&#39;s stock price and excitement about its artificial intelligence initiatives, I remain concerned about iPhone sales, which are up just 1% year-on-year in June, compared to a 4% rise in the broader market. This is against a backdrop of stretched valuations and the high possibility of a market correction (i.e. mean reversion).</p><p>In my opinion, the current market forecast for Apple&#39;s P/E multiple by the end of FY2025 is too optimistic. Realistically, I&#39;d expect it to be ~30 times earnings, which suggests the potential for a correction of ~5%. This forecast is subject to change, of course, but significant adjustments are unlikely, in my view. Therefore, I currently see no margin of safety for Apple stock. A further upward move would only increase its expensiveness, which runs counter to logic. I have decided to downgrade AAPL to &#34;Sell&#34;, looking forward to seeing the company&#39;s Q3 FY2024 earnings release on August 1.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Time To Sell (Downgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Time To Sell (Downgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-17 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4704248-apple-stock-time-to-sell-downgrade-aapl-stock><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySince I upgraded Apple stock to \"Buy\", it has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 4x over the past quarter.What has driven the stock's rapid growth in recent years and recent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4704248-apple-stock-time-to-sell-downgrade-aapl-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4704248-apple-stock-time-to-sell-downgrade-aapl-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1169733376","content_text":"SummarySince I upgraded Apple stock to \"Buy\", it has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 4x over the past quarter.What has driven the stock's rapid growth in recent years and recent months, was, in my opinion, mainly the expectation of a new product upgrade cycle fueled by AI.Today, concerns about iPhone sales growth lagging behind the market, stretched valuations, and potential market correction led me to the decision to downgrade Apple stock.Realistically, I'd expect AAPL to trade at ~30x earnings by FY2025, which suggests the potential for a correction of ~5%.I currently see no margin of safety for Apple stock, so I downgrade AAPL to \"Sell\", looking forward to seeing the company's Q3 FY2024 earnings release on August 1.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Beyond the Wall Investing get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »My Thesis UpgradeI initiated coverage on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) (NEOE:AAPL:CA) stock in January 2024 with a \"Sell\" rating when each share was trading at around $191. However, I upgraded my rating to \"Buy\" in mid-April 2024 when the stock fell to about $174 per share. Since then, I haven't touched my bullish rating anyhow, so during the past quarter, Apple stock has grown by ~32.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SP500) (SPY) by nearly 4x:Seeking Alpha, Oakoff's coverage of AAPLWhat has driven the stock's rapid growth in recent years and recent months, was, in my opinion, mainly the expectation of a new product upgrade cycle fueled by the integration of AI into new devices. However, I believe that the current price has exceeded a justifiable valuation. Therefore, I've decided to lower my rating to \"Sell\" again, as I expect the coming months to be quite challenging for Apple's stock price performance.My ReasoningIn fiscal Q2 2024, Apple reported revenue of ~$90.7 billion, which was a YoY decline of 4% and a QoQ decline of 24% (the latter is typical for Q2 due to poorer seasonality). Despite both YoY and QoQ declines, AAPL's revenue was slightly above the consensus guidance of $90.5 billion. What surprised me was the GAAP gross margin improving to 46.6% from 45.9% in the prior quarter and 44.3% in the year-ago quarter. The GAAP EBIT margin decreased to 30.7% from 33.8% in the prior quarter but increased from 29.9% in Q2 FY2023, so EPS was $1.53 compared to $1.52 in the prior year, beating the consensus estimate of ~$1.50.Seeking Alpha, AAPLAs can be seen from the cash flow statement, Apple made approximately $57.5 billion in net income for the fiscal year H1 2024, which is 6.3% less than a year ago, but it was able to bring out around $62.5 billion in operating cash flow due to a bit smaller negative impact of accounts payable compared to the same period last year. Thanks to a doubling of cash flows from investing activities (on a YoY basis) and a slightly lower outflow from financial activities, the amount of cash on the company's balance sheet has increased significantly, amounting to $67.15 billion in cash and short- and long-term investments (+20% YoY), according to Seeking Alpha Premium data. In terms of free cash flow generation, Apple's Q2 has remained approximately at the same level seen in the last 5 years (adjusted for seasonality). On a TTM basis, we see that AAPL's FCF is growing in the long term, now exceeding $100 billion, which is positive, but it hasn't grown beyond this mark since 2022.ChartSuch an enormous FCF should have been utilized somehow, and so Apple has actively repurchased its shares from the open market and maintained stable, albeit modest, dividends. In April 2024, the company boosted its buyback program by $110 billion, which was a bigger increase compared to the previous 2 years ($90 billion each). They also raised the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, up from last year's increase of 4% to $0.24 per share in April 2023 and an increase of 5% from the previous year to $0.23 per share in April 2022. Thus, the long-term trend of decreasing shares outstanding continued, and the company's dividend yield, due to the rise in the stock prices, became even lower:ChartIn general, I can't call Apple's second fiscal quarter results outstanding. They weren't groundbreaking; Apple's Q2 financials were probably not the main reason for the recovery in the stock price, even though Apple managed to beat analysts' consensus estimates. The main reason was the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), where important changes were announced regarding the development of artificial intelligence in the company's devices. They introduced the Apple Intelligence initiative, with the idea to build generative AI into the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. This would now include updates to its operating systems like iOS 18, iPadOS, and macOS Sequoia with integrated AI capabilities of Apple. Enhanced features include improved customizations, satellite messaging, and new functions for AirPods Pro as well as Apple Watch. It's important to note that Siri has also been enhanced by Apple with more contextual relevance and personal intelligence capable of tasks such as responding to emails or making unique emojis in the iMessage app. This AI-realted strategic move from Apple, although quite late compared to other Big Tech companies, should trigger a new wave of iPhone sales according to many Wall Street analysts after WWDC, setting it up for EPS growth over the next 2 years driven by its strong hardware and services demand.I believe the company has a great opportunity to monetize its AI initiatives, especially with the continued growth in service revenue, which was a lifeline in the second quarter. However, I believe the company is still a long way from realizing the full potential benefits, and the recent market reaction seems overly optimistic. Even the majority of bullish analysts at Wall Street's major investment banks haven't been as bullish as recent price movements suggest; Apple's stock has significantly outperformed analysts' average price targets. The highest estimate is now $275 per share, which represents a further 19.5% increase from the current price, but this remains the most optimistic scenario within a broader range. So given the already bullish outlook on its growth prospects, the stock price seems \"overheated\" to me.Seeking Alpha, AAPL stock, Wall Street RatingsI'm also concerned by the fact that the actual number of iPhones sold (\"sell-through\") in recent months has lagged behind the average growth rate of the market. UBS reported on this at the end of June (proprietary source, June 2024), citing data from May that showed a 2% year-on-year decline in iPhone sales, marking the 5th consecutive month of weakness.UBS, proprietary source, June 2024To date, the latest (June-dated) data confirms Apple's continued weakness compared to the broader market.UBS reported that preliminary June sell-through data provided by Counterpoint indicates that the Apple’s iPhone unit sell-through was up roughly 1% last month, which compares to global smartphone growth of about 4%. For the June quarter, preliminary data indicate iPhone unit sell-through was 45M units, or down 1% year-over-year, compared to 6% growth for the market, according to the analyst, who keeps a Neutral rating and $190 price target on Apple shares.Source: TipRanks [July 12, 2024]Although the share of service revenue is growing, it remains a secondary source of sales for Apple. Although the artificial intelligence initiatives are important milestones in the company's development, the actual iPhone sales growth compared to the market has not lived up to the expectations raised after the \"AI announcement\". Perhaps anticipation is building for the release of the iPhone 16. I don't want to draw any definitive conclusions here, but the current sales momentum suggests caution rather than maintaining the overly bullish sentiment we had immediately after WWDC. Meanwhile, over the past six months, Wall Street analysts have continued to raise their estimates for EPS significantly, seemingly overlooking potential risks.Seeking Alpha, AAPL's EPS revisionsAnalysts predict an 11% annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS over the next 5 years. However, I'm concerned that this expected growth rate would only value the company at 20x net earnings by FY2028. Of course, by the end of FY2028, this multiplier will likely be higher. Currently, the forwarding P/E ratio stands at about 35x net earnings (the end of 2024). This is close to Apple's limit, historically speaking. Therefore, in 5 years, maintaining the buyback and assuming stable FCF and EPS growth based on today's consensus, we can most likely expect a 25-30x P/E multiple for Apple - this gives a potential price of $307/sh. In other words: In 5 years, the stock may expand by 33% based on quite optimistic (the current consensus) expectations, which would mean a CAGR of about 5.9% per annum. Many A2-rated bonds (based on Moody's rating) yield much more today, so I don't think this projected growth rate is justified. I see no margin of safety in Apple's current valuation.ChartAccording to analysts, today's 35x in FWD P/E may decrease to ~31.6x by the end of 2025. I believe that, in reality, the P/E multiple should drop to at least 30 times earnings. With the current consensus EPS estimate at $7.29, this would imply a stock price of ~$218, which is ~5% lower than today's price, highlighting the lack of a safety margin in Apple stock, in my opinion.As for the technical analysis, I also see some potential short-term problems for Apple. Firstly, by September, the current strength in terms of seasonality is likely to diminish, if the past 10 years of statistics are something to rely on. Secondly, the stock price's distance from its 52-week exponential moving average has increased rapidly, reaching peaks seen in previous expansions. In the previous expansion, the stock rose from the bottom to a local peak over about 6 months, gaining 59.5%. Today, we see that Apple stock has grown by 40.5% in just 3 months, which is very fast. This makes the price action look very extended, and a pullback to the moving averages seems like the most logical outcome.TrendSpider Software, AAPL stock, Oakoff's notesThus, based on my findings, I think it should be logical to downgrade Apple stock to \"Sell\" today.Upside Risks To My ThesisFirst, one of the major upside risks to my today's downgrade is that I don't agree with the common view, which encompasses the judgments and thoughts of those who have been following Apple for a longer time and more closely than me. Therefore, there are chances that I may be absolutely wrong about something obvious to the bulls.Second, I find Argus Research's latest report (proprietary source, dated June 2024) to contain a whole lot of bullish arguments that appear very solid to me and could easily negate my conclusions if the company fulfills what is anticipated:We believe on-device Gen AI has the potential to drive the next big round of iPhone sales. Timing of product readiness and in particular customer acceptance is uncertain. Apple recently reported solid fiscal 2Q24 results, with record service revenue partly offsetting lower iPhone sales. Currently, Apple is on track for EPS growth over the next two years. This reflects strong appetite for Apple's hardware, and its brand loyalty in turn spurs demand for Apple's services, including iTunes, App Store, and iCloud.Apple has entered the generative AI space after being on the sidelines for the first year and a half after ChatGPT's launch in November 2022. By mainly positioning these new enhancements on its highest-end existing iPhone and mainly on future models, the company seeks to drive a robust new upgrade cycle in 2025 and beyond.We believe the current environment represents an opportunity to establish or dollar-average into positions in AAPL.Third, my conclusions about the company's valuation are somewhat subjective, as I'm basing them on historical norms and what I, personally, think is fair for Apple stock. The market's assessments of the company's prospects and the prices investors are willing to pay may differ significantly from my opinion and conclusions. It's important to note that numerous funds and other institutional investors hold significant stakes in Apple - their reluctance to sell or trim positions could contribute to the continued upward momentum of the stock amid the absence of strong selling pressure.Your TakeawayDespite the recent rise in Apple's stock price and excitement about its artificial intelligence initiatives, I remain concerned about iPhone sales, which are up just 1% year-on-year in June, compared to a 4% rise in the broader market. This is against a backdrop of stretched valuations and the high possibility of a market correction (i.e. mean reversion).In my opinion, the current market forecast for Apple's P/E multiple by the end of FY2025 is too optimistic. Realistically, I'd expect it to be ~30 times earnings, which suggests the potential for a correction of ~5%. This forecast is subject to change, of course, but significant adjustments are unlikely, in my view. Therefore, I currently see no margin of safety for Apple stock. A further upward move would only increase its expensiveness, which runs counter to logic. I have decided to downgrade AAPL to \"Sell\", looking forward to seeing the company's Q3 FY2024 earnings release on August 1.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}